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Effects of age-targeted sequestration for COVID-19 Jamieson-Lane, Alastair; Cytrynbaum, Eric

Abstract

We model the extent to which age-targeted protective sequestration can be used to reduce ICU admissions caused by novel coronavirus COVID-19. Using demographic data from New Zealand, we demonstrate that lowering the age threshold to 50 years of age reduces ICU admissions drastically and show that for sufficiently strict isolation protocols, sequestering one-third of the countries population for a total of 8 months is sufficient to avoid overwhelming ICU capacity throughout the entire course of the epidemic. Similar results are expected to hold for other countries, though some minor adaption will be required based on local age demographics and hospital facilities.

Item Metadata

Title
Effects of age-targeted sequestration for COVID-19
Creator
Jamieson-Lane, Alastair; Cytrynbaum, Eric
Publisher
Taylor & Francis
Date Issued
2020-07-27
Description
We model the extent to which age-targeted protective sequestration can be used to reduce ICU admissions caused by novel coronavirus COVID-19. Using demographic data from New Zealand, we demonstrate that lowering the age threshold to 50 years of age reduces ICU admissions drastically and show that for sufficiently strict isolation protocols, sequestering one-third of the countries population for a total of 8 months is sufficient to avoid overwhelming ICU capacity throughout the entire course of the epidemic. Similar results are expected to hold for other countries, though some minor adaption will be required based on local age demographics and hospital facilities.
Subject
COVID-19; SIR model; structured population; epidemics; age
Genre
Article
Type
Text
Language
eng
Date Available
2021-04-28
Provider
Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library
Rights
Attribution 4.0 International
DOI
10.14288/1.0397010
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/2429/78031
Affiliation
Science, Faculty of; Mathematics, Department of
Citation
Alastair Jamieson-Lane & Eric Cytrynbaum (2020) Effects of agetargeted sequestration for COVID-19, Journal of Biological Dynamics, 14:1, 621-632.
Publisher DOI
10.1080/17513758.2020.1795285
Peer Review Status
Reviewed
Scholarly Level
Faculty
Copyright Holder
Authors
Rights URI
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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Attribution 4.0 International