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Direct and Indirect Loss Evaluation of Storm Surge Disaster Based on Static and Dynamic Input-Output Models Jin, Xue; Sumaila, Ussif Rashid; Yin, Kedong

Abstract

Storm surge disaster is one of the biggest threats to coastal areas. Over the years, it has brought serious losses to the economy and environment of China’s coastal areas. In this paper, Guangdong Province is taken as the research object to evaluate the damage caused by storm surge disasters. First of all, regarding the three-industry classification standards of the National Bureau of Statistics, combined with the storm surge disaster assessment index system, the 10-sector storm surge disaster loss input-output table is compiled and analyzed. Secondly, the indirect economic losses of storm surge disasters between 2007–2017 are determined by calculating the direct and indirect consumption coefficients. Thirdly, based on the static input-output model, considering the time factor, the dynamic input-output model of storm surge disaster assessment is established to calculate the cumulative output loss under different recovery periods (30 days, 90 days, 120 days, 180 days, 360 days). The results indicate that: (1) the losses, after a storm surge, in the agricultural economy have the greatest impact on the manufacturing sector, and conversely, they have less effect on the science, education and health service sectors; as well as the construction sector; (2) taking the industry with the biggest loss ratio as an example, the recovery of damaged industries is relatively rapid in the early stage and tends to be stable in the later stage of recovery; (3) the total output loss calculated using the static input-output model is greater than that computed using the dynamic input-output model. Researching the assessment of the direct and indirect loss due to storm surge disasters is of great value and practical significance for the scientific and rational planning of the country’s production layout, the maintenance of social and economic stability and the protection of life and property.

Item Metadata

Title
Direct and Indirect Loss Evaluation of Storm Surge Disaster Based on Static and Dynamic Input-Output Models
Creator
Jin, Xue; Sumaila, Ussif Rashid; Yin, Kedong
Publisher
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
Date Issued
2020-09-08
Description
Storm surge disaster is one of the biggest threats to coastal areas. Over the years, it has brought serious losses to the economy and environment of China’s coastal areas. In this paper, Guangdong Province is taken as the research object to evaluate the damage caused by storm surge disasters. First of all, regarding the three-industry classification standards of the National Bureau of Statistics, combined with the storm surge disaster assessment index system, the 10-sector storm surge disaster loss input-output table is compiled and analyzed. Secondly, the indirect economic losses of storm surge disasters between 2007–2017 are determined by calculating the direct and indirect consumption coefficients. Thirdly, based on the static input-output model, considering the time factor, the dynamic input-output model of storm surge disaster assessment is established to calculate the cumulative output loss under different recovery periods (30 days, 90 days, 120 days, 180 days, 360 days). The results indicate that: (1) the losses, after a storm surge, in the agricultural economy have the greatest impact on the manufacturing sector, and conversely, they have less effect on the science, education and health service sectors; as well as the construction sector; (2) taking the industry with the biggest loss ratio as an example, the recovery of damaged industries is relatively rapid in the early stage and tends to be stable in the later stage of recovery; (3) the total output loss calculated using the static input-output model is greater than that computed using the dynamic input-output model. Researching the assessment of the direct and indirect loss due to storm surge disasters is of great value and practical significance for the scientific and rational planning of the country’s production layout, the maintenance of social and economic stability and the protection of life and property.
Subject
storm surge disaster; static and dynamic input-output model; loss assessment
Genre
Article
Type
Text
Language
eng
Date Available
2020-10-01
Provider
Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library
Rights
CC BY 4.0
DOI
10.14288/1.0394574
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/2429/76239
Affiliation
Arts, Faculty of; Science, Faculty of; Non UBC; Oceans and Fisheries, Institute for the; Public Policy and Global Affairs, School of
Citation
Sustainability 12 (18): 7347 (2020)
Publisher DOI
10.3390/su12187347
Peer Review Status
Reviewed
Scholarly Level
Faculty
Rights URI
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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CC BY 4.0