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Spatial Modelling of Fire Drivers in Urban-Forest Ecosystems in China Guo, Futao; Su, Zhangwen; Tigabu, Mulualem; Yang, Xiajie; Lin, Fangfang; Liang, Huiling; Wang, Guangyu

Abstract

Fires in urban-forest ecosystems (UFEs) are frequent with complex causes, posing a serious hazard to human lives and infrastructure. Thus, quantifying wildfire risks in UFEs and their spatial pattern is quintessential to develop appropriate fire management strategies. The aim of this study was to explore spatial (geographically weighted logistic regression, GWLR) versus non-spatial (logistic regression, LR) modelling approaches to determine the relationship between forest fire occurrence and driving factors in Yichun, a typical urban-forest ecosystem in China. As drivers of fire, 13 factors related to topographic, vegetation, infrastructure, meteorological and socio-economy were considered and regressed against fire occurrence data from 1980 to 2010. Results demonstrate the superiority of GWLR models over LR in terms of prediction accuracy, goodness of fit and model residuals. The GWLR model further captured the spatial variability of driving factors over a broad study area, and the fire likelihood maps identified areas with different zones of fire risk in the study area. In conclusion, the study demonstrates quantitatively and spatially the importance of accounting for local variation in drivers of fires, thereby improving fire management and prevention strategies. The findings also contribute to the emerged field of fire management and fire risk assessment in UFEs.

Item Metadata

Title
Spatial Modelling of Fire Drivers in Urban-Forest Ecosystems in China
Creator
Guo, Futao; Su, Zhangwen; Tigabu, Mulualem; Yang, Xiajie; Lin, Fangfang; Liang, Huiling; Wang, Guangyu
Publisher
Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute
Date Issued
2017-05-24
Description
Fires in urban-forest ecosystems (UFEs) are frequent with complex causes, posing a serious hazard to human lives and infrastructure. Thus, quantifying wildfire risks in UFEs and their spatial pattern is quintessential to develop appropriate fire management strategies. The aim of this study was to explore spatial (geographically weighted logistic regression, GWLR) versus non-spatial (logistic regression, LR) modelling approaches to determine the relationship between forest fire occurrence and driving factors in Yichun, a typical urban-forest ecosystem in China. As drivers of fire, 13 factors related to topographic, vegetation, infrastructure, meteorological and socio-economy were considered and regressed against fire occurrence data from 1980 to 2010. Results demonstrate the superiority of GWLR models over LR in terms of prediction accuracy, goodness of fit and model residuals. The GWLR model further captured the spatial variability of driving factors over a broad study area, and the fire likelihood maps identified areas with different zones of fire risk in the study area. In conclusion, the study demonstrates quantitatively and spatially the importance of accounting for local variation in drivers of fires, thereby improving fire management and prevention strategies. The findings also contribute to the emerged field of fire management and fire risk assessment in UFEs.
Subject
Spatial heterogeneity; Geographically weighted logistic regression; Fire risk; Wildfire management
Genre
Article
Type
Text
Language
eng
Date Available
2019-06-10
Provider
Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library
Rights
CC BY 4.0
DOI
10.14288/1.0379386
URI
http://hdl.handle.net/2429/70604
Affiliation
Forestry, Faculty of; Non UBC
Citation
Forests 8 (6): 180 (2017)
Publisher DOI
10.3390/f8060180
Peer Review Status
Reviewed
Scholarly Level
Faculty
Rights URI
https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/
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CC BY 4.0