UBC Faculty Research and Publications

Maximum Entropy and Probability Kinematics Constrained by Conditionals Lukits, Stefan

Abstract

Two open questions of inductive reasoning are solved: (1) does the principle of maximum entropy (PME) give a solution to the obverse Majerník problem; and (2) isWagner correct when he claims that Jeffrey’s updating principle (JUP) contradicts PME? Majerník shows that PME provides unique and plausible marginal probabilities, given conditional probabilities. The obverse problem posed here is whether PME also provides such conditional probabilities, given certain marginal probabilities. The theorem developed to solve the obverse Majerník problem demonstrates that in the special case introduced by Wagner PME does not contradict JUP, but elegantly generalizes it and offers a more integrated approach to probability updating.

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CC BY 4.0