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Deterministic Ensemble Forecasts Using Gene-Expression Programming.

American Meteorological Society

Amethod called gene-expression programming (GEP), which uses symbolic regression to form a nonlinear combination of ensemble NWP forecasts, is introduced. From a population of competing and evolving algorithms (each of which can create a different combination of NWP ensemble members), GEP uses computational natural selection to find the algorithm that maximizes a weather verification fitness function. The resulting best algorithm yields a deterministic ensemble forecast (DEF) that could serve as an alternative to the traditional ensemble average. Motivated by the difficulty in forecasting montane precipitation, the ability of GEP to produce biascorrected short-range 24-h-accumulated precipitation DEFs is tested at 24 weather stations in mountainous southwestern Canada. As input to GEP are 11 limited-area ensemble members from three different NWP models at four horizontal grid spacings. The data consist of 198 quality controlled observation–forecast date pairs during the two fall–spring rainy seasons of October 2003–March 2005. Comparing the verification scores of GEP DEF versus an equally weighted ensemble-average DEF, the GEP DEFs were found to be better for about half of the mountain weather stations tested, while ensembleaverage DEFs were better for the remaining stations. Regarding the multimodel multigrid-size ‘‘ensemble space’’ spanned by the ensemble members, a sparse sampling of this space with several carefully chosen ensemble members is found to create a DEF that is almost as good as a DEF using the full 11-member ensemble. The best GEP algorithms are nonunique and irreproducible, yet give consistent results that can be used to good advantage at selected weather stations. Copyright 2009 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or copyright@ametsoc.org.

Text

2011-04-11

Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International

http://hdl.handle.net/2429/33514

Bakhshaii, Atoossa, Stull,Roland B. 2009. Deterministic Ensemble Forecasts Using Gene-Expression Programming. Weather and Forecasting. 24(5) 1431-1451.

Reviewed

Stull, Roland B.

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