UBC Faculty Research and Publications

Adaptive Nonlinear MOS Scheme for Precipitation Forecasts Using Neural Networks. Yuval; Hsieh, William W.


A novel neural network (NN)–based scheme performs nonlinear model output statistics (MOS) for generating precipitation forecasts from numerical weather prediction (NWP) model output. Data records from the past few weeks are sufficient for establishing an initial MOS connection, which then adapts itself to the ongoing changes and modifications in the NWP model. The technical feasibility of the algorithm is demonstrated in three numerical experiments using the NCEP reanalysis data in the Alaskan panhandle and the coastal region of British Columbia. Its performance is compared with that of a conventional NN-based nonadaptive scheme. When the new adaptive method is employed, the degradation in the precipitation forecast skills due to changes in the NWP model is small and is much less than the degradation in the performance of the conventional nonadaptive scheme. Copyright 2003 American Meteorological Society (AMS). Permission to use figures, tables, and brief excerpts from this work in scientific and educational works is hereby granted provided that the source is acknowledged. Any use of material in this work that is determined to be “fair use” under Section 107 of the U.S. Copyright Act or that satisfies the conditions specified in Section 108 of the U.S. Copyright Act (17 USC §108, as revised by P.L. 94-553) does not require the AMS’s permission. Republication, systematic reproduction, posting in electronic form, such as on a web site or in a searchable database, or other uses of this material, except as exempted by the above statement, requires written permission or a license from the AMS. Additional details are provided in the AMS Copyright Policy, available on the AMS Web site located at (http://www.ametsoc.org/) or from the AMS at 617-227-2425 or copyright@ametsoc.org.

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