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The Impact of Climate Change on Extreme Events for Operation and Closure of Tailings Facilities

Tailings and Mine Waste Conference (2023 : Vancouver, B.C.); University of British Columbia. Norman B. Keevil Institute of Mining Engineering

This paper presents the analysis completed to assess potential impacts of climate change on hydro-climate design parameters, “the inputs to our engineering designs,” for a mine’s tailings facility in northern British Columbia (Mine). Understanding potential climate change impacts on extreme rainfall and floods is essential to operate safely into the future while bringing the mine operations into alignment with aspects of the Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management (GISTM), and is also essential for the design of lifeof-mine and closure-phase mine infrastructure. Overall, within the Mine region, all climate model scenarios indicate that the climate will become warmer and wetter, with increased evaporation and decreased snowfall. Warmer air temperatures will allow greater evaporation, holding capacity, and transport of moisture. Climate change science also suggests that the increases in temperature will shift storm patterns northward. Frequency analysis was performed on annual maximum precipitation series derived from 24 climate models. Scaling factors (SF) were estimated using the ratios of the rainfall depth quantiles of the immediate and near future periods (2020–2050 and 2050–2080) to those of the current climate period (1950–2020). The median SF for the near future period is higher than for the immediate future period, which is consistent with the findings published in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report. The SF for the probable maximum precipitation (PMP) values were estimated using the ratio of the 1 in 1,000-year rainfall depth for the reference period. From this analysis, the recommended SF for the 24-hour annual PMP corresponding to the immediate future period and near future period were determined. This project example shows the needs to assess the changing extremes floods, while an increase in the magnitude and frequency of extreme droughts is also a significant operational concern for a mine operation relying heavily on water. Through assessing the risks associated with these changes, adaptation plans can be planned to include review of the planned closure landform to address future risks.

Text

2023-12-08

Attribution 4.0 International

http://hdl.handle.net/2429/86833

Unreviewed

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/