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Using Statistics and Judgment to Generate Screening-level Estimates of Tailings Dam Risk

Tailings and Mine Waste Conference (2023 : Vancouver, B.C.); University of British Columbia. Norman B. Keevil Institute of Mining Engineering

This paper describes a framework to estimate the probability of tailings dam risk using failure statistics and judgment to help promote application of risk-informed decision making in mine waste management. The underpinnings of the framework are presented, with a focus on the approach to estimating probability of failure from a suite of common failure modes. Through review of recent publications on tailings dam inventories and failure databases, estimates of baseline failure probability by dam raise method have been made. Failure statistics by dam raise method are used to identify the average relative contribution of common failure modes to the total probability of failure. Guidance is provided to adjust the industry-average probability of failure estimates based on an assessment of site factors pertaining to each failure mode. Guidance is also provided to further adjust the failure mode probabilities by considering the level of governance practice and the design criteria and practices used to address each mode.

Text

2023-12-08

Attribution-NonCommercialNoDerivatives 4.0 International

http://hdl.handle.net/2429/86827

Unreviewed

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/