International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Evaluation of decisions to rehabilitate South African dams in terms of the ANCOLD ALARP criterion and SWTP for human safety Viljoen, Celeste; Reynolds, Sonel


Eleven case studies of dam rehabilitation projects in South Africa are evaluated in terms of quantitative risk assessment criteria (ANCOLD, 2003) and Society’s Willingness to Pay (SWTP) (Pandey, et al., 2006). Inspection and design reports on which the decisions to rehabilitate were based were made available by the Department of Water and Sanitation, South Africa, from where estimates of pre- and posterior probabilities of failure, expected loss of human lives as well as cost of rehabilitation were obtained. In all cases, ANCOLD’s ALARP criterion dictated that the (existing) dams be rehabilitated. Only one of the eleven cases requires rehabilitation based on the SWTP criterion. The other cases either had a prohibitively high rehabilitation cost, an already low probability of failure prior to rehabilitation or low expected loss of lives in case of failure.

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