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International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

A probabilistic approach in estimating optimal evacuation scenarios for seismic emergency management Zanini, Mariano A.; Pellegrino, Carlo; Rossi, Riccardo; Gastaldi, Massimiliano; Modena, Claudio


In recent earthquake experiences proper evacuation planning and potential emergency actions to be conducted to help the citizens of the quake municipalities were significant issues. In this work the effects of earthquake scenarios were shown in terms of seismic damages to residential and industrial buildings and also to infrastructural networks through the use of probabilistic approaches. The analyses were conducted on the building and infrastructural assets of the municipality of Conegliano, a town of 40000 inhabitants located in the northern part of the province of Treviso, North-Eastern Italy. A preliminary study on historical seismicity and geological substructures of the surrounding areas was performed, followed by the evaluation of the potential seismic damages to the built heritage. On the basis of these results, the issues of the post-quake accessibility and the management of the inhabitants optimal evacuation using the procedure described in Hadas et al. 2013 were performed. Information about building and infrastructural damages, spatial distribution and capacity of harvesting areas, boundary conditions in terms of predetermined maximum timing for carrying out the evacuation and needed costs for the seismic retrofit of bridges belonging to network links involved in the evacuation were the main input data for the simulations.

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