International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Using random simulation of hurricane tracks for risk analysis Garrè, Luca; Dudek, Agnes


This paper illustrates a simulation approach to hurricane tracks. The procedure implemented was taken from existing literature and applied to storms recorded in the IBTrACS dataset. The results obtained are encouraging: the variables currently simulated, primarily locations of hurricane genesis, track propagation and locations of decay, are in general agreement with results available in the literature and with the historical data. Further improvements of the present work are however needed with respect to a number of metrics particularly relevant for risk assessment.

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