International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Rare event simulation : a point process interpretation with application in probability and quantile estimation Walter, Clément; Defaux, Gilles


This paper addresses the issue of estimating extreme probability and quantile on the output of complex computer codes. We introduce a new approach to solve this problem in term of a random walk in the output space, leading to two main results: (1) the number of samples required to get a realisation of a random variable in a given domain of probability measure p is drastically reduced, following a Poisson law with parameter log1/p; and (2) we get parallel algorithms for estimating probabilities and quantiles and especially the optimal parallel Multilevel Splitting algorithm where there is indeed no subset to define anymore.

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