International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

A guide to develop community resilience performance goals and assessment metrics for decision making McAllister, Therese P.

Abstract

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is conducting outreach and research to develop a Community Resilience Planning Guide for Buildings and Infrastructure Systems and quantitative science-based assessment tools and metrics for community resilience. The research focuses on the performance and rapid recovery of the built environment to a functional level for significant hazard events, and the associated technical and social challenges. Major objectives include the development of a community-level methodology based on performance goals, quantitative science-based resilience assessment tools and metrics based on reliability and risk analysis, and guidance and pre-standard documents that can be adopted by communities and code and standard bodies to support rational public policies for mitigating risk to communities. Science-based decision support tools and metrics are needed to help communities evaluate the performance of built systems that support social and economic functions in a community and assess alternative plans and associated risks. The immediate need for community resilience tools for the built environment is being addressed by NIST through a planning methodology and implementation guidance that includes a process for setting community performance goals and evaluating recovery through time to return of functionality. Quantitative science-based assessment tools and metrics for community resilience, based on reliability and risk principles for integrated ‘system of systems’ modeling, are in early stages of development. Researchers are developing quantitative models of individual infrastructure systems, but much remains to be done before an integrated systems model that incorporates uncertainties in data and system condition is available and validated. The addition of community performance goals, multiple hazard levels, and recovery of functionality to the traditional elements of mitigation, performance and damage levels, and losses and consequences provides a more complete risk-informed assessment of community resilience. NIST outreach and research activities that address these issues are summarized, and a simple risk formulation for resilience that incorporates recovery is proposed.

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Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 Canada

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