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A case-study on scenario-based probabilistic seismic loss assessment for a portfolio of bridges

International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability (12th : 2015 : Vancouver, B.C.)

The majority of bridge infrastructure in Italy has been built in the 60’s and 70’s without specific seismic provisions. Therefore, it is expected that they reveal high seismic vulnerability if subjected to a significant seismic event. Given this background, it is natural that rapid and accurate assessment of economic losses incurred to bridge infrastructure can play a crucial role in emergency management in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake. Focusing on the infrastructure system of highway bridges in the Campania region, it is shown how state of the art methodologies in portfolio loss assessment and available data can be implemented in order to assess the probability distribution of the repair costs incurred to the portfolio in question due the Irpinia 1980 earthquake. Formulating the probabilistic loss assessment for the portfolio of bridges as a standard Monte Carlo Simulation problem helps in resolving the spatial risk integral efficiently. One of the specific features of this case-study is the use of statistical methods for updating, a) ground motion prediction; b) vulnerability/fragility; and c) exposure/cost models based on available data. It has been observed that alternative hypotheses with regard to the ground motion correlation structure can significantly affect the distribution of the direct economic loss. Furthermore, updating the ground motion prediction based on available recordings may significantly reduce the dispersion in the estimation of the direct economic losses.

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This collection contains the proceedings of ICASP12, the 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering held in Vancouver, Canada on July 12-15, 2015. Abstracts were peer-reviewed and authors of accepted abstracts were invited to submit full papers. Also full papers were peer reviewed. The editor for this collection is Professor Terje Haukaas, Department of Civil Engineering, UBC Vancouver.

Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library

10.14288/1.0076229

Non UBC

Unreviewed

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ca/