International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

A case-study on scenario-based probabilistic seismic loss assessment for a portfolio of bridges Miano, Andrea; Jalayer, Fatemeh; De Risi, Raffaele; Prota, Andrea; Manfredi, Gaetano


The majority of bridge infrastructure in Italy has been built in the 60’s and 70’s without specific seismic provisions. Therefore, it is expected that they reveal high seismic vulnerability if subjected to a significant seismic event. Given this background, it is natural that rapid and accurate assessment of economic losses incurred to bridge infrastructure can play a crucial role in emergency management in the immediate aftermath of an earthquake. Focusing on the infrastructure system of highway bridges in the Campania region, it is shown how state of the art methodologies in portfolio loss assessment and available data can be implemented in order to assess the probability distribution of the repair costs incurred to the portfolio in question due the Irpinia 1980 earthquake. Formulating the probabilistic loss assessment for the portfolio of bridges as a standard Monte Carlo Simulation problem helps in resolving the spatial risk integral efficiently. One of the specific features of this case-study is the use of statistical methods for updating, a) ground motion prediction; b) vulnerability/fragility; and c) exposure/cost models based on available data. It has been observed that alternative hypotheses with regard to the ground motion correlation structure can significantly affect the distribution of the direct economic loss. Furthermore, updating the ground motion prediction based on available recordings may significantly reduce the dispersion in the estimation of the direct economic losses.

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