International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Modifications to risk-targeted seismic design maps for subduction and near-fault hazards Liel, Abbie B.; Luco, Nicolas; Raghunandan, Meera; Champion, Casey P.


ASCE 7-10 introduced new seismic design maps that define risk-targeted ground motions such that buildings designed according to these maps will have 1% chance of collapse in 50 years. These maps were developed by iterative risk calculation, wherein a generic building collapse fragility curve is convolved with the U.S. Geological Survey hazard curve until target risk criteria are met. Recent research shows that this current approach may be unconservative at locations where the tectonic environment is much different than that used to develop the generic fragility curve. This study illustrates how risk-targeted ground motions at selected sites would change if generic building fragility curve and hazard assessment were modified to account for seismic risk from subduction earthquakes and near-fault pulses. The paper also explores the difficulties in implementing these changes.

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