International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Statistical investigation of extreme weather conditions Proske, D.


Structures are exposed to an ensemble of natural hazards. Earthquakes and flooding’s are the most recognized natural hazards, but structures also have to be safe under extreme weather conditions such wind and hurricanes, heat periods and colds, extreme rainfalls, hail and freezing rain. Some of this hazards are usually not investigated in detail, however based on statistical investigations, hazard curves and representative values of hazards can be defined, if required. They can be applied in probabilistic computations to achieve the probability of failure of the structures. Although major efforts have been undertaken in recent years to estimate the hazards and the representative values, we have to notice, that the validity of the provided natural hazards estimations by means of statistical investigations is limited due to confined sample populations. One of this causes is the recently increased knowledge using data with extreme values from non-instrumental periods, which heavily influences the outcome of the statistics, if considered. Newer statistical methods and the inclusion of historical data can, but need not necessarily improve results under all conditions. This development has also been observed in seismic loading estimation and in flooding hazard prognosis.

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