International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Integrated multi-hazard framework for the fragility analysis of roadway bridges Gehl, Pierre; D’Ayala, Dina


This paper presents a method for the development of bridge fragility functions that are able to account for the cumulated impact of different hazard types, namely earthquakes, ground failures and fluvial floods. After identifying which loading mechanisms are affecting which bridge components, specific damage-dependent component fragility curves are derived. The definition of the global damage states at system level through a fault-tree analysis is coupled with a Bayesian Network formulation in order to account for the correlation structure between failure events. Fragility functions for four system damage states are finally derived as a function of flow discharge Q (for floods) and peak ground acceleration PGA (for earthquakes and ground failures): the results are able to represent specific failure configurations that can be linked to functionality levels or repair durations.

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