International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Multivariate modelling of extreme load combinations for wind turbines Dimitrov, Nikolay


We demonstrate a model for estimating the joint probability distribution of two load components acting on a wind turbine blade cross section. The model addresses the problem of modelling the probability distribution of load time histories with large periodic components by dividing the signal into a periodic part and a perturbation term, where each part has a known probability distribution. The proposed model shows good agreement with simulated data under stationary conditions, and a design load envelope based on this model is comparable to the load envelope estimated using the standard procedure for determining contemporaneous loads. By defining a joint probability distribution and full return-period contours for multiple load components, the suggested procedure gives the possibility for determining the most critical loading direction in a blade cross section, or for carrying out reliability analysis on an entire cross section.

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