International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Probabilistic demand and supply resilience model for electric power supply system under seismic hazard Sun, Li; Didier, Max; Delé, Eric; Stojadinovic, Bozidar


A compositional framework for the probabilistic assessment of the seismic resilience of an electric power supply system and a community it serves is proposed and illustrated in this paper. This framework is based computing the electric power supplied by the system and the electric power demand generated by the community through the earthquake damage absorption and recovery phases. Losses occurring when the demand exceeds the supply are a direct measure of the lack of EPSS resilience. During the damage absorption phase, the loss of system supply and the community demand is computed using component vulnerability functions. An inverse computation is done during the recovery phase using component recovery functions, defined as conditional probability that a component function will be fully restored after a certain recovery time period given its damage level. The integration of the component vulnerability and recovery functions for the electric power supply system considers the topology of the system, its function, and the correlations among its components. Similarly, integration of the community component vulnerability and recovery functions can account for the social and economical interactions in the community. A case study using a portion of the IEEE 118 Bus Test Case is used to illustrate the framework, develop a set of vulnerability and recovery functions, and compute direct and derived electrical power supply system seismic resilience measures.

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