International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Probabilistic treatment of storm rotation and wind-driven rain deposition in a hurricane model Johnson, Timothy J.; Pinelli, Jean-Paul; Cocke, Steven


Hurricane catastrophe vulnerability models aim to capture the average building exterior and interior damages under extreme uncertainty. Interior damages, which may represent the majority of the repair bill are primarily due to wind driven rain intrusion. Rain intrusion is highly dependent on the storm direction with respect to the building. This paper presents a methodology to capture the effects of storm rotation on the wind driven rain that an “average” building would be exposed to during a hurricane. Two statistical methods are investigated and compared to best capture these effects with the goal of combining a time dependent rain model with a non-time dependent physical damage model.

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