International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Random field modeling for the prediction of wall thickness of nuclear pipes considering data misalignment Adegbola, Adetola; Yuan, Xian-Xun; Wang, Min


Probabilistic structural integrity assessment has been increasingly used to ensure the fitness-for-service of the major systems, structures and components (SSCs) of a nuclear power plant. The probabilistic approach requires a sophisticated mathematical model to quantify the variability and uncertainty of the degradation involved in the SSCs. This paper presents a nonhomogeneous random field modeling approach to the prediction of wall thickness of nuclear pipes due to flow-accelerated corrosion. The approach addresses two practical issues in random field-based degradation modeling. It uses a moving-window kriging technique to estimate the missing measurements involved in ultrasonic scans, and then stitch the overlapping scan patches to make a whole random field for the wall thickness. The uniform random field becomes an important input for next-step structural integrity assessment using, e.g., stochastic finite element analysis. The proposed modeling approach is illustrated by a practical example of nuclear feeder piping.

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