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Bayesian networks in levee system reliability

International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability (12th : 2015 : Vancouver, B.C.)

We applied a Bayesian network to a system of levees for which the results of traditional reliability analysis showed high failure probabilities, which conflicted with the intuition and experience of those managing the levees. We made use of forty proven strength observations - high water levels with no evidence of failure - to refine the probability distributions of the random variables relevant for failure, and to improve the failure probability estimate of the system. We found that the use of these observations in the Bayesian network resulted in a decrease in the estimated failure probability of over two orders of magnitude.

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This collection contains the proceedings of ICASP12, the 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering held in Vancouver, Canada on July 12-15, 2015. Abstracts were peer-reviewed and authors of accepted abstracts were invited to submit full papers. Also full papers were peer reviewed. The editor for this collection is Professor Terje Haukaas, Department of Civil Engineering, UBC Vancouver.

Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library

10.14288/1.0076144

Non UBC

Unreviewed

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ca/