International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Fusing simulation results from multifidelity aero-servo-elastic simulators : application to extreme loads on wind turbine Abdallah, Imad; Sudret, Bruno; Lataniotis, Christos; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard; Natarajan, Anand


Fusing predictions from multiple simulators in the early stages of the conceptual design of a wind turbine results in reduction in model uncertainty and risk mitigation. Aero-servo-elastic is a term that refers to the coupling of wind inflow, aerodynamics, structural dynamics and controls. Fusing the response data from multiple aero-servo-elastic simulators could provide better predictive ability than using any single simulator. The co-Kriging approach to fuse information from multifidelity aero-servo-elastic simulators is presented. We illustrate the co-Kriging approach to fuse the extreme flapwise bending moment at the blade root of a large wind turbine as a function of wind speed, turbulence and shear exponent in the presence of model uncertainty and non-stationary noise in the output. The extreme responses are obtained by two widely accepted numerical aero-servo-elastic simulators, FAST and BLADED. With limited high-fidelity response samples, the co-Kriging model produced notably accurate prediction of validation data.

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