International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Identifying the needs and future directions of seismic hazard for probabilistic infrastructure risk analysis Weatherill, Graeme; Pagani, Marco


The vulnerability of urban infrastructure to both ground shaking and geotechnical failure during large earthquakes has been demonstrated by recent earthquakes such as the 2010 - 2011 Canterbury earthquake sequence (New Zealand, 2010 - 2011) or 2010 Haiti event. Probabilistic seismic risk analysis to infrastructure systems requires the characterisation of both the transient shaking and permanent ground deformation elements of the hazard, and must do so incorporating both the aleatory and epistemic uncertainties and the spatial correlations and dependencies that are inherent in both of these aspects. Recent developments in characterisation of spatial correlation and cross-correlation in the ground motion uncertainties form the foundations of a comprehensive Monte Carlo-based methodology for analysis of seismic risk to spatially extended systems. New research directions are needed, however, in order to ensure that secondary hazard aspects are incorporated in the same way. These include the treatment of site amplification of the ground shaking, the modelling of permanent ground deformation from slope displacement and liquefaction, and permanent displacement due to coseismic slip on and around the fault rupture. Key considerations for integrated probabilistic framework for physically-realistic characterisation of the ground shaking and permanent ground displacement are illustrated using the example of simulation spatially correlated fault slip on an active fault rupture in a manner that can be integrated within a Monte Carlo-based probabilistic seismic hazard methodology.

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