International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Uncertainty quantification of heavy gas release over a barrier Omrani, Pejman Shoeibi; O’Mahoney, Tom; Mack, Andreas; Witteveen, Jeroen A. S.


In this study a procedure for input uncertainty quantification (UQ) in computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations is proposed. The suggested procedure has been applied to a test case. The test case concerns the modeling of a heavy gas release into an atmospheric boundary layer over a barrier. The following uncertain parameters are investigated in their respective intervals: release velocity (18 m/s, 22 m/s), release temperature (270 K, 310 K) and the atmospheric boundary layer velocity (3 m/s, 7 m/s). The Stochastic Collocation (SC) method is used to perform the probabilistic propagation of the uncertain parameters. The uncertainty analysis was performed with two sets of sampling grids (full and sparse grids) for the uncertain parameters. The results show which of the selected uncertain parameters have the largest impact on the dispersed gas plume and the local concentrations in the gas cloud. Additionally, using sparse grids shows potential to reduce the computational effort of the uncertainty analysis.

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