International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Simulation-based analysis of reconfigurable system of system network topologies for resilience using Bayesian networks Francis, Royce A.


An emerging understanding of resilient systems is as a management principle or framework allowing for reconfiguration or adaptation in the face of threats or shocks. This is a new approach engineered system resilience: the more traditional approach is that systems may focus on resistance to threats, and speedy recovery if vulnerabilities are breached. This notion can potentially integrate interdisciplinary research currently pursued in systems engineering, design theory, infrastructure risk analysis, and statistical learning to create an approach that permits both evaluation of system resilience and also the value of system evolvability in the face of operational hazards. In prior work, a vision for reconfigurable systems based on Bayesian Networks was articulated but not tested or demonstrated. In this paper, we demonstrate a Bayesian Network inspired approach to measuring the value of re-configurability in systems of systems that can be represented in directed acyclic graphs using a simulation-based approach. For the purpose of our investigation, re-configurability means that a system can adapt its structure to structural failures in either system components or links between components. The latter is called structural flexibility, whereas the former is called functional flexibility. Undirected Bayesian Networks are used to structure the relationships between the subsystem components, and the graphical model is then used in conjunction with concepts from functional dependency network theory to evaluate the response the system under updated configurations.

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