International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Pushover-based loss estimation of masonry buildings with consideration of uncertainties Snoj, Jure; Dolšek, Matjaž


A seismic loss estimation methodology for masonry buildings is introduced. It enables the estimation of losses based on the simulated damage at the building’s level with consideration of epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties. The modelling uncertainties are incorporated through a set of structural models, which are defined by utilizing the Latin Hypercube Sampling technique. The damage of the building is simulated by the pushover analyses, whereas the relationship between the engineering demand parameter at the level of the building and the seismic intensity is estimated by incremental dynamic analysis, which is performed for the single-degree-of-freedom model taking into account the ground motion randomness and the modelling uncertainties. The loss estimation methodology requires the use of the fragility functions, which were in the case of masonry walls established from the experimental database, whereas for the other components, they were adopted according to FEMA P-58- 1. The proposed method is demonstrated by means of an example of a three-storey masonry building. It is shown that consideration of the effect of modelling uncertainty increased the probability of collapse in 50 years and the expected annual loss, respectively, for factors of 1.5 and 1.25.

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