International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Value of information on the risk/benefit of infrastructure under strong winds in Mexico De Leon, David; Lopez, Alberto; Esteva, Luis


The occurrence of hurricanes has produced many fatalities and damages in Mexico (1) and new efforts for preparation and risk mitigation are being conducted In this work, several cost-effective strategies to reduce the expected number of fatalities and losses, given the site exposure to wind hazard and given the consequences level of the structures failure, are recommended. The strategies are based on risk and reliability concepts and tools, like the expected life-cycle cost (which includes the initial and expected future costs in the structure life-cycle) associated to proposed scenarios with different levels of epistemic uncertainty. As a means to compare the structure failure probability with an allowable safety measure, the acceptable failure probability of structures is obtained for several consequences costs.

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