Open Collections

Evaluating desktop methods for assessing liquefaction-induced damage to infrastructure for the insurance sector

International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability (12th : 2015 : Vancouver, B.C.)

The current method used by insurance catastrophe models to account for liquefaction simply applies a factor to shaking-induced losses based on liquefaction susceptibility. There is a need for more sophisticated methods but they must be compatible with the data and resource constraints that insurers have to work with. This study compares five models: liquefaction potential index (LPI) calculated from shear-wave velocity; two implementations of the HAZUS software methodology; and two models based on USGS remote sensing data. Data from the September 2010 and February 2011 Canterbury (New Zealand) earthquakes is used to compare observed liquefaction occurrences to predictions from these models using binary classification performance measures. The analysis shows that the best performing model is LPI although the correlation with observations is only moderate and statistical techniques for binary classification models indicate that the model is biased towards positive predictions of liquefaction occurrence.

Text

This collection contains the proceedings of ICASP12, the 12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering held in Vancouver, Canada on July 12-15, 2015. Abstracts were peer-reviewed and authors of accepted abstracts were invited to submit full papers. Also full papers were peer reviewed. The editor for this collection is Professor Terje Haukaas, Department of Civil Engineering, UBC Vancouver.

Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library

10.14288/1.0076102

Non UBC

Unreviewed

http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ca/