International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Implications of hurricane : sea surface temperature relationship Mudd, Lauren; Letchford, Chris; Rosowsky, David


This paper presents a study to assess the impact of possible future climate change on the joint hurricane wind and rain hazard along the northeast US coastline. A postulated climate change model (IPCC scenario) was considered, which suggested changes in sea surface temperature (SST) (i.e., the driving parameter in most modern hurricane models). Relationships between SST and hurricane genesis frequency, genesis location, and track propagation were incorporated into state-of-the-art hurricane simulation procedures. Results from the SST conditioned hurricane simulations indicate the wind and rain hazards for the northeast US are likely to increase in a warmed climate, while the overall number of landfalling events is likely to decrease.

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