International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Tuning of record-based stochastic ground motion models for hazard-compatibility and applications to seismic risk assessment Vetter, Christopher R.; Taflanidis, Alexandros A.; Mavroeidis, George P.


This paper discusses the tuning of stochastic ground motion models so that compatibility of the resultant hazard with Ground Motion Prediction Equations (GMPEs) is directly established. This is facilitated by proper optimization for the predictive relationships involved in such models that relate seismicity characteristics to the model parameters. A computationally efficient approach is discussed that can seamlessly provide ground motions that match any chosen GMPE for any desired set of seismicity characteristics or structural periods. Foundation of the methodology is the development of a metamodel that facilitates a simplified relationship between the ground motion model parameters and its median predictions. This metamodel is subsequently used to efficiently select the predictive relationships that optimize the match to the chosen GMPE with the numerical accuracy of the metamodel predictions also explicitly incorporated in this optimization. The implementation of the tuned model within seismic risk assessment is also demonstrated.

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