International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Reliability-based progressive collapse and redundancy analysis of suspension bridges Yang, Jian; Ghosn, Michel


This paper describes a reliability-based approach for evaluating the performance of suspension bridges susceptible to local damage from rare extreme events. The approach accounts for the uncertainties in evaluating the ambient loads during the occurrence of sudden damage and in evaluating the load carrying capacities of the members as well as the damaged system. A method to develop appropriate reliability-based and equivalent deterministic criteria that can be used to assess the potential for progressive collapse are proposed based on risk tolerance levels. Latin Hypercube Simulations (LHS) are used for the system reliability analysis and the consequences of failure are estimated in monetary terms accounting for the cost of rebuilding the bridge, loss of life, traffic and user costs. The risk analysis methodology and the determination of equivalent reliability and deterministic criteria are illustrated using an example suspension bridge subjected to different initial damage scenarios.

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