International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Likelihood of progressive collapse of buildings from terrorist attacks Stewart, Mark G.; Grant, Matthew J.


The paper develops a Probabilistic Risk Assessment model that estimates of the probability of terrorist threat, hazard, damage and loss for progressive collapse of large federal government buildings in the United States. It was found that the existing annual fatality risk for building occupants are lower than acceptable risk criteria, and that progressive collapse is an exceedingly rare event in Western countries. A cost-benefit analysis of UFC and GSA design provisions to mitigate against progressive collapse showed that these design measures only becomes cost-effective when the threat likelihood is a very high one in a thousand per building per year.

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