International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP) (12th : 2015)

Seismic hazard analysis with the Bayesian approach Wang, J. P.


The Bayesian approach is of increasing popularity in engineering probability assessment. The key purpose of the method is to develop a new estimate by integrating observations or samples, along with other sources of prior data. By applying the approach to seismic hazard analysis, we developed and introduced the Bayesian seismic hazard analysis in this paper, including the algorithm, and a case study from Taipei City. The Bayesian analysis shows that based on earthquake strong-motion samples in the past 15 years (i.e., observation), and the return periods of 261 and 475 years reported in two studies (priors), the Bayesian estimate on the return period of PGA ≥ 0.25 g at the study site is equal to 339 years, a new estimate using the Bayesian approach to integrate limited earthquake strong-motion observations, with indirect evidence and estimates.

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