International Construction Specialty Conference of the Canadian Society for Civil Engineering (ICSC) (5th : 2015)

Developing failure age prediction model of hazardous liquid pipelines Parvizsedghy, L.; Zayed, T.


Pipelines are the most common way of transporting the hazardous materials. They are considered to be the safest way of transporting petroleum products; however, there have been several failures with considerable consequences. As a result, the importance of studying failure of pipelines is not covert to anybody. Failure prediction of pipelines has been the subject of some studies from different perspectives. Estimation of failure age has also been studied from the specific points of view. Most of the studies have focused on producing models with data from inspection tools. These tools are very expensive; although, they are considerably accurate. This research aims to develop a model based on the basic attributes of pipelines without data from the inspection tools to predict the probability of failure. The model predicts the age of failure considering the historical data that was gathered on pipelines’ failures. The effect of several variables on the frequency of failures in different age classes is studied in order to identify the effective variables on pipelines’ failure. Then, a regression model is developed to estimate the age of failure. Pipe manufacture year, maximum operating pressure (MOP), specified minimum yield strength (SMYS) and pipe diameter over pipe wall thickness are the variables that are considered in the developed model after significant number of modeling iterations. Statistical parameters of the developed regression model prove its soundness. Validation results prove the accuracy of the model with over 80 percent.

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