Applied Science, Faculty of
Community and Regional Planning (SCARP), School of
DSpace
UBCV
Pendakur, Venkatachala Setty
Master of Science in Planning - MSc (Plan)
University of British Columbia
In the constantly changing pattern of our cities, it is the task of the planner to guide these changes towards desired objectives. During the period of rapid growth, the structures created in the past and the needs of the present conflict, giving rise to the various problems that the planner has to face. Perhaps one of the most dramatic, undoubtedly one of the most discussed, and surely one of the most frustrating of these conflicts has manifested itself in the problem of moving persons and goods, and of the vehicles that transport them through our cities. In one generation the motor vehicle has become as much a part of our lives as has the toothbrush. The experience of the past few years has shown us how essential and important is highway transportation to our economy. Naturally, with the fast-growing transportation service, serious problems have arisen. Streets and highways have become outmoded and unsuited for present day traffic volume and speed, congestion and delays have become serious, especially in the cities; and Metropolitan Vancouver is no exception. With the expected increase in population and automobiles in the Vancouver Metropolitan Area, the traffic is bound to increase in all directions by 1971. Traffic to and from industrial areas is a problem that the planner faces everywhere, and the traffic created by the journey to work is a main problem in our metropolitan areas. The North Arm Industrial Area is an off-centre one in Metropolitan Vancouver. It has an area of 3,018 acres, of which only 386 acres were fully developed in 1955. It offers adequate open space for industry, which has been choked elsewhere in other central areas. Thus, in future, it is bound to become one of the important centers of industrial activity in the Metropolitan area. The study presents a forecast of traffic volumes for 1971 in the North Arm Area and points out the planning implication of the predicted volumes. If fully developed by 1971, as has been assumed in the study, this area is expected to have a total traffic volume of 23,200 trips per day, out of which 19,500 trips per day are expected to be home-to-work trips made during the peak hours. As at present, the arterial system lacks proper bridges to Lulu Island and is congested during peak hours. The traffic problem in our Metropolitan area is only beginning and only bold plans, continually amended, and equally bold programs of road construction can hope to meet this problem. Alternately, the growth of traffic could be controlled by restricting the land use and diverting the industries to other areas. Peak hour traffic of journey-to-work could be, to some extent, solved by staggered working hours. Building of low rental housing for industrial workers within walking distance from their work places could also be thought of as a solution to this expected problem. However, if the planners do not act in time, the traffic in this area could strangle its own circulation and become costly to handle
TRAFFIC GENERATION IN THE NORTH ARM INDUSTRIAL AREA by VENKATAGHALA SETTY PENDAKUR Report on a Project Submitted i n l i e u of a Thesis i n Part ia l Fulfilment of-the Reqv&rements for the Degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE i n the Department of COMMUNITY AND REGIONAL PLANNING We accept th is report as conforming to the standard required from can-didates for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE Members of the Department of Community and Regional Planning THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA A p r i l , 1958 i ABSTRACT In the constantly changing pattern of our c i t i e s , i t i s the task of the planner to guide these changes towards desired objectives. During the period of rapid growth, the structures created i n the past and the needs of the present conflict, giving rise to the various problems that the planner has to face. Perhaps one of the most dramatic, undoubtedly One of the most discussed, and surely one of the most frustrat-ing of these conflicts has manifested i t s e l f i n the problem of moving persons and goods, and of the vehicles that transport them through our c i t i e s . In one generation the motor vehicle has become as much a part of our lives as has the toothbrush. The experience of the past few years has shown us how essential and important i s highway transportation to our economy. Natur-ally, with the fast-growing transportation service, serious problems have arisen. Streets and highways have become out-moded and unsuited for present day t r a f f i c volume and speed, congestion and delays have become serious, especially i n the c i t i e s ; and Metropolitan Vancouver i s no exception. With the expected increase i n population and automobiles In the Vancouver Metropolitan Area, the t r a f f i c is bound to Increase i n a l l directions by 1971. Traffic to and from industrial areas i s a problem that the planner faces everywhere, and the t r a f f i c created by the i l Journey to work i s a main problem i n our metropolitan areas. The Worth A r m I n d u s t r i a l Area i s an off-centre one i n Metropol-i t a n Vancouver. It has an area of 3,018 acres, of whieh only 386 acres were f u l l y developed i n 1955* It o f f e r s adequate open space f o r industry, which has been choked elsewhere i n other central areas. Thus, i n future, I t i s bound to become one of the important centers of i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t y i n the Metropolitan area. The study presents a forecast of t r a f f i c volumes f o r 1 9 7 1 i n the tforth Arm i&rea and points out the planning implica-t i o n of the predicted volumes. I f f u l l y developed by 1 9 7 1 , as has been assumed i n the study, t h i s area i s expected to have a t o t a l t r a f f i c volume of 23,200 t r i p s per day, out of which 19»500 t r i p s per day are expected to be home-to-work t r i p s made during the peak hours. As at present, the a r t e r i a l system lacks proper bridges to Lulu Island and i s congested during peak hours* The t r a f f i c problem i n our Metropolitan area i s only beginning and only bold plans, c o n t i n u a l l y amended, and equally bold programs of road construction can hope to meet t h i s problem. Al t e r n a t e l y , the growth of t r a f f i c could be controlled b y r e s t r i c t i n g the land use and divert i n g the industries to other areas. Peak hour t r a f f i c of journey-to-work could be, to some extent, solved by staggered working hours. Building of low rent a l housing f o r i n d u s t r i a l workers within walking i i i distance from t h e i r work places could also be thought of as a solution to t h i s expected problem. However, i f the plan-ners do not act i n time, th© t r a f f i c i n t h i s area could strangle I t s own c i r c u l a t i o n and become c o s t l y to handle. In presenting t h i s thesis i n p a r t i a l fulfilment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the Library s h a l l make i t f r e e l y available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of t h i s thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by his representative. It i s understood that copying or publication of t h i s thesis for f i n a n c i a l gain s h a l l not be allowed without my written permission. Department of Community and Regional Planning The University of B r i t i s h Columbia, Vancouver 3 . Canada. Date A p r i l : 1, 1958 i i PREFACE The North Arm I n d u s t r i a l Area, today, i s an o f f - c e n t e r one i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver. I t has an a r e a of 3018 acres of which o n l y 386 acres were f u l l y developed i n 1955* \ I t o f f e r s adequate open space f o r i n d u s t r y which has been choked i n other c e n t r a l areas. Thus, I n the f u t u r e , i t i s bound t o become one of the important c e n t e r s of i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t y i n the M e t r o p o l i t a n area.. T r a f f i c to and from i n d u s t r i a l areas i s a problem t h a t the p l a n n e r f a c e s everywhere. Because of p e r s o n a l i z e d t r a n s -p o r t which the automobile has g i v e n us, t r a f f i c c r e a t e d by the journey t o work i s a main problem i n our M e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s . With expected i n c r e a s e i n p o p u l a t i o n and automobiles i n Vancouver M e t r o p o l i t a n Area, the t r a f f i c i s bound to i n c r e a s e i n a l l d i r e c t i o n s . , The purpose of t h i s study i s to analyse the p r e s e n t t r a f f i c i n the North Arm I n d u s t r i a l $ r e a and to p r e d i c t the t r a f f i c volumes f o r 1971* w i t h a view to p r e s e n t i n g the s e r i o u s -ness of the s i t u a t i o n t o a l l concerned w i t h the p l a n n i n g of our t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s . I t i s a l s o intended to be a case study i n the use of c e r t a i n c u r r e n t techniques of t r a f f i c a n a l y s i s and p r e d i c t i o n as a b a s i s f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n p l a n n i n g . i i l This i s a student project undertaken i n l i e u of a Master's thesis i n Community and Regional Planning. The project was conceived and completed under the d i r e c t i o n of Professor I r a M. Robinson of the Community and Regional Planning Department. I am thankful to the following f o r t h e i r help and assistance throughout the study and without whose help the study itfould have been incomplete. Mr. B. Elwood, Planning Department, C i t y of Vancouver. Mr. 6 . F. Farry, Planning Department, C i t y of Vancouver. Miss L. Lane, Tabulating Department, University of B r i t i s h Columbia. The Planning Department, D i s t r i c t M unicipality of Burnaby. Mr. J . W. Wilson, Executive Director, Lower Main-land Regional Planning Board of B r i t i s h Columbia. The University of B r i t i s h Columbia, V. S. Pendakur TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Preface ...... . .......... i i Table of Contents * i v L i s t of Tables v L i s t of Tables i n Appendix I v i L i s t of Maps v i i L i s t of Charts v i l l CMPTEB I. INTRODUCTION • .«.«*«•.«»••.«.«««....•«>.>.«..»..<>> 1 A. The problems measuring and forecasting t r a f f i c i n off-center i n d u s t r i a l areas i n our modern c i t i e s 1 B. Current Techniques of T r a f f i c Analyses ........ 7 C. Procedure and Methodology Used i n t h i s Study .. 14 I I . PRESENT TRAFFIC 17 A. Analyses of T r a f f i c Generation Factors 17 B. Testing of the Prediction Technique 20 C. Journey to Work i n the North Arm Area 24 I I I . FUTURE TRAFFIC ................................... 27 IV. PLANNING IMPLICATIONS . ............ 34 JUPJ? B l M D X X X • o < f O * « » » » o » « « e » o e » # » * o * » » » « e » » « o » * » » o » o « © » * » Arty REFERENCES 62 SI6LI0GRAPHV. ...................................•..*...• 64 V LIST OT TABLES TABLE To follow page 1 Motor Vehicle Registration i n the Internal Area, Metropolitan Vancouver, 1955 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 5 2 Total Trip Generation and Dwelling Unit Factor l a the Internal Area, Metropolitan Vancouver, 1 9 5 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 8 3 Total Vehicle Trips and Total Work Trips generated In the Internal Area, Metropolitan Vancouver, 1 9 5 5 1 8 4 Work Trips per Gross Acre i n Industrial Areas., Metropolitan Vancouver, 1955 • • • 1 9 5 Estimate of Daily Trips per Thousand Dwelling Units Using the Dwelling Unit Factor from fable 2 and Chart 2 for the Internal Area, Metropolitan Vancouver, 1955 2 1 6 Estimate of Work Trips destined to lorth Arm Area i n 1955? based on the "Standard Work Trip Ratio Chart" developed on Chart 1 2 2 7 Commuting Distances of Industrial Workers i n 8 Projection of Traffic Growth, State of Washington .. 28 9 Projection of Motor Vehicle Registration, Br i t i s h Columbia »*.««»..«..«.««.«..».«.>...».»•»* 28 1 0 Estimate of Trips Originating i n the Internal £k7?Qci xn X97X » « « * ( ) f i « « t * f « « * « * « « t » f t » t « 9 « * c « i * a i > t « B 23 1 1 Estimate of Trips to Horth Arm Area i n 1 9 7 1 . . . . . . . . 2 8 1 2 Work Trips to the Worth Arm .Area i n 1 9 7 1 based on Gross Area of Land Under Industrial Us© ....... 3 0 v i LIST QF TABLES IN APPENDIX I, TABLE Page I Estimate of Dwelling Units f o r 1971> II Estimate of Dwelling Units f o r C i t y of Vancouver i n 1971 > Summary 50 III Estimate of Dwelling Units by T r a f f i c D i s t r i c t s In 1971, C i t y of Vancouver ......... 51 IV Estimate of Population Change, due to Urban Renewal Programmes by 1971, C i t y of Vancouver 53 V Estimate of Dwelling Units i n 1971, D i s t r i c t M unicipality of Burnaby 54 VI Estimate of Dwelling Units i n 1971? D i s t r i c t Municipality of Richmond 55 VII Estimate of Dwelling Units i n 1971» C i t y of New Westminster 56 VIII Estimate of Dwelling Units i n 1971 > Coquitlam, Port Coquitlam, Port goody and University Endowment Lands 57 v i i LIST OF MAPS To f o l l o w Page 1 . A r t e r i a l S t r e e t s , M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver, 2. T r a f f i c D i s t r i c t s , M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver, 1955. 4 3. R e l a t i o n of Hose to Works Worth Arm Area, Vancouver, 1 9 5 5 . 23 4. R e l a t i o n of Home to $orks Pals© Creek Area, Vancouver, 1955 • 23 v i i i LIST OF CHARTS CHART to follow page 1 Standardized Curve f o r Work T r i p Generation i n North Arm In d u s t r i a l Area, 1955 18 2 Generation of T r i p s by Dwelling Units Based on 0-D Survey of 36 United States C i t i e s 20 3 G a i n f u l l y Employed Workers using Passenger Cars f o r Home to Work Travel, Summer of 1951* Six States, United States of Americas Cumulative D i s t r i b u t i o n by Distance to Places of Employment from Place of Residence i n Incorporated Areas 26 4 Motor Vehlele Registration, State of Washington.. 28 CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION A . The Problem? measuring and forecasting t r a f f i c i n off-center i n d u s t r i a l areas i n our modern c i t i e s In the constantly changing pattern of our c i t i e s , i t i s the task of the planner to guide these changes towards desired objectives* The planner can i n s t i t u t e various actions and controls x*lth which he may influence and d i r e c t change. To do so i n t e l l i g e n t l y , he needs to understand c l e a r l y the possible re s u l t s of his decisions. Changes i n the c i t y proceed at an i r r e g u l a r rate. During the period of rapid growth, th© struc-ture created i n the past and the needs of the present c o n f l i c t , giving r i s e to the various problems the planner has to face. Perhaps one of the most dramatic, undoubtedly one of the most discussed, and surely one of the most f r u s t r a t i n g of these con-f l i c t s has manifested I t s e l f i n the problems of moving persons and goods, and of the vehicles that transport them through the c i t y with safety, despatch and e f f i c i e n c y . This d a i l y move-ment of people, goods and vehicles as a r e s u l t of the i n t e r -communication process i n any community? i s c a l l e d " t r a f f i c . " People t r a v e l to and from t h e i r homes and places of work to carry on business and f o r various other purposes. With the 1 2 increase- i n the s i z e of our c i t i e s , t h i s t r a f f i c has grown i n volume and speed, and has changed i n mode. Over the cen-t u r i e s , land t r a v e l has evolved from f o o t to wheel to s e l f -p r o p e l l e d v e h i c l e . With each advance i n mode, there has ensued a dramatic r e v o l u t i o n i n d i s t a n c e , time and t r a v e l p a t t e r n . While we are s t i l l t r y i n g t o adapt ourselves and our c i t i e s to t h i s r e v o l u t i o n , i t w i l l be t r a g i c i f we do not grasp the f u l l i m p l i c a t i o n of the i n t e r n a l combustion engine i n the form of the automobile. T h i s i s the Motor V e h i c l e E r a on the North American con t i n e n t . I n one generation, the motor v e h i c l e has become as much a part of our l i v e s as has the t o o t h brush. The experience of the past fetir years has demonstrated how e s s e n t i a l and important i s highway t r a n s p o r t a t i o n to our economy. D i r e c t l y or i n d i r e c t l y , highway t r a n s p o r t a t i o n produces one-2 seventh of the peace time employment. • The motor v e h i c l e has brought a new way of l i f e . Both urban and r u r a l l i f e have been g r e a t l y changed by i t . While h a l f of a l l v e h i c l e - m i l e s of highway t r a v e l i s i n c i t i e s and t h e i r suburban f r i n g e s , the motor v e h i c l e has brought the tpvm and the country together,, v a s t l y reducing i s o l a t i o n . 3 N a t u r a l l y , w i t h so widespread and f a s t growing t r a n s p o r t a t i o n s e r v i c e , s e r i o u s problems have a r i s e n . S t r e e t s and highways have become outmoded and unsuited f o r present day t r a f f i c volume and speed. Congestion and delays have become s e r i o u s , e s p e c i a l l y I n the c i t i e s . T r a f f i c congestion i s l i t e r a l l y choking the l i f e out of North American 3 c i t i e s . Since the days when the motor vehicle began to he important on the streets and the highways, the nature of many planning problems has changed s i g n i f i c a n t l y . The growth of t r a f f i c has been so prodigious that t r a f f i c i s beginning to strangle I t s own c i r c u l a t i o n . Man has many motivations f o r t r a v e l . His gregarious i n s t i n c t , h i s inherent c u r i o s i t y , h i s socio-economic require-ments and many other tangible and intangible, physical and psychological factors combine to provide motivating influences 4 — to push and to p u l l , and put him on the go. Man's economic necessity to work f o r a l i v i n g together with the standardiza-t i o n of the working hours has become one of the most contribut-ing factors to his mobility. In many c i t i e s , the masses of population move i n tides of d a i l y ebb and flow. In the o r b i t s of th© c i t i e s and t h e i r employment areas, t r a v e l l i n g to work has become a normal state of a f f a i r s . The journey to work i s a common feature of a l l i n d u s t r i a l countries. U n t i l recently, the journey to work with a l l i t s demographic, s o c i a l and economic implications attracted very l i t t l e attention. But of la t e years, numerous p r a c t i c a l problems a r i s i n g out of these d a i l y movements have figured i n the discussion of town and country planning. Wage-earners and sal a r i e d employees, men, women and juveniles t r a v e l to t h e i r place of work i n the morning and t r a v e l home i n the evening. The outward r e s u l t of these movements represents the rush-hour t r a f f i c . In addition, th© 4 journey to work has more general, i f less v i s i b l e , implications. It helps to expand the labor market i n quantity and q u a l i t y . This mobility of labour as afforded by the journey to work, widens the range of choice f o r the l o c a t i o n of i n d u s t r i e s . Furthermore, d a i l y t r a v e l a f f e c t s the r e s i d e n t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n of the population. The journey to work i s , thus, of great importance f o r town planning. Recent studies of urban t r a v e l patterns have shown that a t h i r d to half of a l l the d a i l y t r i p s are made to and from places of work. The importance of these t r i p s l i e s not only i n t h e i r absolute and r e l a t i v e volumes, but also i n the fac t that the great majority of them are made during two well defined periods of the day. They are the primary cause of the peak-hour t r a f f i c flows which are an important con-side r a t i o n i n street and highway planning. Before the automobile attained importance as a means of transportation f o r the worker, work t r i p s were made by foot, b i c y c l e , or v i a public transportation. Most i n d u s t r i a l concen-trations were near the central business d i s t r i c t convenient to the hub of the public t r a n s i t system. But the intense us© of the automobile has led to the personalization of transportation services. I t has increased the mobility of the workers beyond the realms of imagination and introduced an influence of decentralisation on i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n . The development of truck transportation on an e f f i c i e n t basis has freed i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n from i t s dependence on r a i l r o a d tracks and has contribu-ted greatly to the present decentralization of industries towards 0 , TRAFFIC GENERATION IN THE '/IORTH ARM INDUSTRIAL AREA. /MogTK ARM A « M . ~ ^TUWICIfVW. S«v.~D>«l£S TRAPrtc DiTTRicT 2 5 the suburban fri n g e s . Thus, i n recent years, the i n d u s t r i a l areas outside the central business d i s t r i c t have gained importance as centers of employment. The North Arm of the Fraser River i n Metropolitan Vancouver i s one such off-center i n d u s t r i a l area. (See Map 1) The North Arm, at present, i s a fast developing sub-urban i n d u s t r i a l area. It consists of t r a f f i c d i s t r i c t s 0353 045, 055 and 066. (See l a p 2) The boundaries of these t r a f f i c d i s t r i c t s have been adapted from the present practices of the Technical Committee on Metropolitan Highway Planning, Vancouver, In 1955, 386 acres of land were used f o r i n d u s t r i a l purposes out of a t o t a l of 1,254 acres i n the North Arm Area. This area has been at t r a c t i n g a l o t of industries f o r the past few years and shows vast potentials f o r development. The problems of highway transportation and that of a journey to work exist i n a varying degree i n every c i t y , and Metropolitan Vancouver i s no exception. Bottle-necks i n trans-portation, e s p e c i a l l y during peak hours involving th© journey to work, have become a common sight. During the peak hours on Burrard, Lions' Gate, and P a t t u l l o Bridges, the automobiles are t r a v e l l i n g l i t e r a l l y bumber to bumper. While industry and business are moving towards suburban fringes, the t r a f f i c i s increasing i n a l l d i r e c t i o n s . The impact of industries i n the suburban areas i s e s p e c i a l l y noticeable i n the increases i n t r a f f i c volumes registered i n these areas i n reeent years. 6 For th© Vancouver Metropolitan Area a population of 6 over 1,000,000 has "been estimated f o r 1971? i& most forecasts. This Increase i n population followed by the increase i n the i n d u s t r i a l a c t i v i t y outside the central business d i s t r i c t i s bound to have a f a r reaching influence on the transportation 7 f a c i l i t i e s which are at the present time overtaxed. To solve t h i s problem on a long range basis, vigorous action i s demanded by the planners and the p u b l i c . The highways have to be re-vamped and t h e i r operation improved, and new highways b u i l t i f every worker i s to reap the f u l l benefit of personalized trans-portation which the automobile has given us. It i s e s s e n t i a l that thoughtful planning should precede our action i n t h i s f i e l d . To do so i n t e l l i g e n t l y , the planner needs to be able to analyse and predict the changes i n land use and t r a f f i c . It i s the purpose of t h i s study to analyse the present t r a f f i c and forecast the future t r a f f i c i n the f o r t h Arm I n d u s t r i a l Area f o r the year 1971? and discuss the implications of such predicted t r a f f i c volumes f o r planning land use and transporta-t i o n f a c i l i t i e s . On the one hand, the short time available to complete the study r e s t r i c t s i t s scope. On the other hand, the nature of data available further r e s t r i c t s i t s scope. No s t a t i s t i c s on employment densities i n the i n d u s t r i a l area were available. However, the Origin-Destination Survey conducted by the Technical Committee on Metropolitan Highway Planning i n September 1955 forms the basis and the main source of data f o r t h i s study. The analysis and predictions made are based on present-day r e s i d e n t i a l patterns v i s - a - v i s North Arm Area 7 giving due weight to future d i s t r i b u t i o n of population i n the Metropolitan area. The non-avail a b i l i t y of data on employ-ment densities has made impossible any analysis of the r e l a -tionship between employment densities and t r a f f i c volumes. B . Current Techniques of T r a f f i c Analysis U n t i l very recently, the f i e l d of t r a f f i c and trans-portation planning was the t r a f f i c engineer's sphere of a c t i v i t y . The techniques adapted by the engineer f o r t r a f f i c analysis are much d i f f e r e n t from those of the planner. The reasons f o r t h i s are not hard to discover. On the one hand, the t r a f f i c engineer i s mainly concerned with the physical problems, such as foundation or s o i l s i n th© construction of any network of transportation. Very seldom i s ho concerned with the e f f e c t or impact which such a network w i l l have on other aspects of the community's l i v i n g pattern! e.g., journey to work, neighborhood patterns, or future populations. On the other hand, the s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s and the planners a l i k e , are s t r i v i n g continuously to solve the problems of urban trans-portation i n r e l a t i o n to population and land use structure i n the community. Different land uses r e s u l t i n or generate d i f f e r e n t volumes of t r a f f i c depending upon population that i s attracted by such land uses* However, the concept of human i n t e r a c t i o n i s an accepted function of the population of the two areas and the distance between them. But the methods adapted by the t r a f f i c engineers have not included these f a c t o r s . 8 Th© f i r s t and the simplest method used by t r a f f i c engineers was to increase a l l inventoried t r a f f i c movements by an average rate of t r a f f i c increase and project t h i s f o r the future. I t assumed the current conditions to p r e v a i l . This i s not a sound procedure as i t does not consider the population and the land use changes which might proeeed at an unprecedented rate. It was soon discarded because i t was inconsistent with the known tendency that parts of urban areas grow at greatly varying rates* This would obviously produce d i f f e r e n t i a l growth rates i n the t r a f f i c i n d i f f e r e n t parts of the urban areas. For example, the vacant lands i n the suburban areas which are newly developed w i l l have f a r greater percentage increases i n t r a f f i c volumes than r e l a t i v e l y stable, older areas which are f u l l y developed. The next stop then taken by the t r a f f i c engineers to overcome t h i s d i f f i c u l t y was to take into consideration the number of automobiles i n each area and correlate the expected 9 Increase i n the volume of t r a f f i c . This method considered the urban area as a single unit and applied the average i n -creases to a l l parts of the urban area. Although i t took into account the expected increase i n the number of automo-b i l e s i n the urban area as a whole, i t assumed that a l l parts of the urban area would grow at the same (average) rate. To overcome t h i s d i f f i c u l t y of average increases further, the engineers divided the urban area into several zones and com-puted the growth factors f o r these zones separately. This 9 method also d i d not provide an answer to the problem as i t f a i l e d to take i n t o account the land us© changes i n the sur-rounding areas which would a f f e c t the t r a f f i c i n any zone. The s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s , on the other hand, argue t h a t t r a f f i c o r human i n t e r a c t i o n i s a r e s u l t of human a s s o c i a t i o n . Most of these concepts are based on mainly s o c i o l o g i c a l f a c t o r s such as human a s s o c i a t i o n , communication, p o p u l a t i o n , d i s t a n c e between masses of p o p u l a t i o n and a p o s s i b i l i t y f a c t o r . However, they d i d not consider automobiles, c o n d i t i o n s of highways, and other f o r c e s of a t t r a c t i o n . The e a r l y s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s , l i k e H. C. Carey, explained the concept thus: "The gr e a t e r the number c o l l e c t e d i n a given space, the greater i s the a t t r a c t i v e f o r c e that i s there exerted. G r a v i t a t i o n i s i n 10 d i r e c t r a t i o of mass (population) and the in v e r s e of d i s t a n c e . " T h i s concept was gener a l i z e d by G. K. Z i p f i n terms of h i s PjPg/D hypothesis i n e a r l y 1940. I n t h i s and i n s i m i l a r con-cepts i t was advocated that the forc e of a t t r a c t i o n between any two centers of p o p u l a t i o n increases as the product of the two populations increases and f a l l s o f f as the distance between 11 them i n c r e a s e s . I t i s recognised that opportunity f o r employment has a major i n f l u e n c e on human i n t e r a c t i o n l a an advanced and i n -d u s t r i a l s o c i e t y . As an adaptation of the e a r l i e r concepts of human i n t e r a c t i o n to present day problems of t r a f f i c , J . D. C a r r o l suggests that what i s needed i s to measure the p o t e n t i a l m i g r a t i o n of p o p u l a t i o n i n terms of oppo r t u n i t y , 10 1 p employment or otherwise. This concept i s very important i n case of off-center i n d u s t r i a l areas because most t r a f f i c i n these areas i s a r e s u l t of employment opportunity. Distance between two commuting centers has been meas-ured i n many ways* With improved highways and automobiles, . th© time of t r a v e l has been used as a measure of distance. In addition to using the above coneept of t r a v e l time as a measure of distance i n applying the p r i n c i p l e of g r a v i t a t i o n to t r a f f i c analysis, A. M. Voorhees suggests measuring the size of the attr a c t i n g influence of the destination i n terras 13 such as land area, f l o o r space area, employment density. Furthermore, i t has also been suggested to measure distance on a time-cost basis.* 4" However, i n case of i n d u s t r i a l areas, the concept of measuring th® force of a t t r a c t i o n i n terms of land area or employment of f e r s a convenient t o o l f o r t r a f f i c analysis. Thus the planner i s caught between the engineers, th© s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t s and the t r a f f i c problems. I f the planner adheres s t r i c t l y to any one of these concepts i n theories, i t might defeat the very purpose of thoughtful planning. I t i s e s s e n t i a l to c o l l e c t t r a f f i c data and interpret i t i n the solu-t i o n of various t r a f f i c problems. However, the non^tr affile data, e.g., population, land, use, automobile ownership, etc., play an important role i n the analysis of present t r a f f i c and pr e d i c t i o n of future t r a f f i c . While population and automobiles influence the volume of t r a f f i c , land use determines the 11 d i r e c t i o n of such t r a f f i c * In planning the transportation f a c i l i t i e s f o r the future, the planner must take Into consider-ation a l l those f a c t o r s . The planning needs make i t - imperative that the planner consider, with due care, a l l these approaches: the t r a f f i c engineer's and the s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t ' s . In the case of off-center I n d u s t r i a l areas, very l i t t l e work has been done regarding the problem of t r a f f i c analysis and prediction. But the studies already made have c l e a r l y pointed out c e r t a i n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of these areas. Many studies have shown that the off-center i n d u s t r i a l areas generally have the employee residences concentrated i n the nearby v i c i n i t y . - New techniques l i k e the use of the work-trip r a t i o chart have been suggested by A. M. Voorhees. 1^ In the absence of employment figures, land area has been the unit of measurement of t r a f f i c 17 p o t e n t i a l . However, i n addition to the above considerations, the t r a d i t i o n a l factors such as motor vehicle ownership and usage, land use i n and around the i n d u s t r i a l area w i l l have to be given due weight i n the analysis of the present t r a f f i c and the pre-d i c t i o n of future t r a f f i c . Thus i t can be summarised that the t r a f f i c i n an indus-t r i a l area i s a function of? 1. Number of workers i n the i n d u s t r i a l area. 2. The area i n acres under i n d u s t r i a l use. 3 . Distance to the employee r e s i d e n t i a l areas. 4-. Automobile ownership i n the omployee r e s i d e n t i a l area. (In analysing the t r a f f i c i n i n d u s t r i a l 12 areas, the major percentage of which i s the t r a f f i c created by workers going to and from work places, automobile ownership i s best assessed i n the form of automobiles per dwelling unit instead of automo-b i l e s per person.) 5. Automobile usage. 6« Ratio of work t r i p s to the i n d u s t r i a l area to the t o t a l work t r i p s i n the c i t y . (This r a t i o defines to some extent the p u l l i n g power of the i n d u s t r i a l area under consideration i n comparison with other i n d u s t r i a l areas i n the c i t y . I t also indicates the importance of t h i s area i n the t o t a l c i t y struc-ture In r e l a t i o n to t r a f f i c . ) 7. Land use around the i n d u s t r i a l area. 8. The a v a i l a b i l i t y and e f f i c i e n c y of public transport. Mode of t r a v e l plays an important r o l e i n the influencing of future t r a f f i c trends* However, during the post-war period the private automobile has been slowly replacing public trans-port* Major factors contributing to the extensive use of auto-mobiles are the r i s i n g standard of l i v i n g , cheaper automobiles, and the easy credit system. The decline i n the use of public transport ean also be attributed to the low e f f i c i e n c y of public t r a n s i t r e s u l t i n g i n considerable time being wasted i n the journey to work. But i n cases of areas with congested a r t e r i e s and shortage of parking space (e.g., downtown Vancouver), public t r a n s i t has become popular. i t i s a matter of dispute as to whether the present popularity of the private automobile w i l l 13 not decrease i f rapid t r a n s i t l i k e the "Mono-Rail" i s introduced. But such a thing i s not foreseen f o r the Vancouver area within the next twenty years. In the case of off-center i n d u s t r i a l areas such as the North Arm* authoritative sources indicate that "low density developments such as the sprawl areas, v i r t u a l l y compel the use of the automobile since i t i s not possible to 18 maintain economic t r a n s i t services." In a recent study of T r a f f i c i n the Detroit Metropolitan Area by J . D. C a r r o l l J r . , i t was shown that i n general, the private automobile i s replac-ing public t r a n s i t . In conclusion, f o r the purposes of t h i s study, i t i s assumed that the private automobile w i l l replace public t r a n s i t to a large extent i n off-center i n d u s t r i a l areas l i k e the North Arm. The North Arm I n d u s t r i a l Area (Map 1) i s , at present, off-center i n r e l a t i o n to other f u l l y developed i n d u s t r i a l areas of the C i t i e s of Vancouver and New Westminster. However, i t i s c e n t r a l l y located i n the Metropolitan area of Vancouver. Nevertheless, i t i s at a considerable distance from the downtown business d i s t r i c t s of both the c i t i e s . It i s not f u l l y devel-oped. Thus i t has a l l the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of an off-center I n d u s t r i a l area going through rapid development because ox the a v a i l a b i l i t y of land. It i s the purpose of t h i s study to apply th© above tech-niques of t r a f f i c analysis and p r e d i c t i o n to the North Arm Area as a basis f o r transportation and land use planning. This i s a 14 case study i n the application of the techniques of t r a f f i c analysis and prediction? and the North Aria Area provides a suitable case because of i t s nature and a v a i l a b i l i t y of data. C. Procedure and Efethodology used i n t h i s Study The problem consists i n analysing the present\fcraffic i n the North Arm Area and forecasting the future t ra f f ica tor \ ''' • the year 1971. The f i r s t step i n the analysis of present "; \ t r a f f i c i s the computation of various t r a f f i c generation fac-\i tors f o r various employee r e s i d e n t i a l areas. \ \ \ \ The area of study i s the Internal Area (Map 1) eonsist-ing of the C i t i e s of Vancouver and New Westminster, the Munici-p a l i t i e s of the D i s t r i c t s of Burnaby and Richmond, CoquitlVim, Port Coquitlam, Port Moody, and the University Endowment Lands. This i s the same i n t e r n a l area as was adapted by the Techh^cVl Planning Committee on Metropolitan Highway Planning i n t h e i r Study of Highway Planning f o r the Metropolitan Area of the 'I Lower Mainland of B . C . i n October.1956. The adaptation i n t h i s study has been prompted by the a v a i l a b i l i t y of basic data for t h i s area from the above Committee. The focus of study i s the North Arm I n d u s t r i a l Area (lap I ) . The i n t e r n a l area i s divided into distance zones j e.g., 2-3 miles, 3-4 miles from the focus of study.. This i s to f a c i l i t a t e the computation * In the t r a f f i c study made by the Technical Committee on Metropolitan Highway Planning i n October 1956, the Internal area was divided into t r a f f i c d i s t r i c t s . Por the purpose of t h i s study, the same area was divided into distance zones. Therefore, most data which was available on a t r a f f i c d i s t r i c t basis has been re-tabulated into distance zones. 15 of t r a f f i c generation factors according to t h e distance of r e s i d e n t i a l areas from the work place. The formula used i s : T * D.N.M., where T = Trips generated i n a r e s i d e n t i a l zone D * Dwelling Unit factor N = Number of dwelling units • M - Motor Vehicles per dwelling u n i t . \ The computed factor "D" indicates the number of t r i p s that would be generated by a dwelling unit i f i t had an automobile. It i s used i n forecasting the t r i p s generated i n 1971? iksing the above formula f o r that year. The factors computed \in other experiences of a s i m i l a r nature are used to forecast the t r a f f i c f o r 1971* A comparison i s then made. From t o t a l t r i p s generated, the work t r i p s are estimated. The estimated X work t r i p s are then d i s t r i b u t e d to major work centers i n t h e ^ Internal Area using the Standard Work-trip Ratio Chart deyj^r 19 iV^ ' oped by A. 1 . Voorhees. Work.trips are also estimated by actual work t r i p r a t i o s of the North Arm Area as at present. The t h i r d method of estimating work t r i p s i s by using t h e land area and the number of t r i p s that an acre of land i n I n d u s t r i a l use could generate. A l l three methods are used f o r forecasting. The t r a f f i c volumes, thus forecast, are adjusted where necessary. In the chapter "Present T r a f f i c " , an analysis of the present t r a f f i c i s made and the generation factors computed. 16 As a by-product of t h i s analysis, the pattern of the journey to work i n the North Arm Area i s compared with other American experiences. The next chapter, "Future T r a f f i c , " deals with the t r a f f i c volumes for the year 1971• F i r s t of a l l , the popula-t i o n i n 1971 i s estimated and then the d i a l l i n g u n i t s . The t r a f f i c volumes are then computed by using the generation factors already computed, giving due consideration to the proba-ble increase i n motor vehicle ownership and usage. Chapter I? then concludes with some of the more s i g n i f i -cant implications of the forecasted data f o r planning of land use and transportation i n and around the North Arm I n d u s t r i a l Area. to follow page 16 TABLE 1. Motor Vehicle Registration i n the Internal Area Metropolitan Vancouver% 1955 Residential Eon© (Distance from North Arm) Motor Vehicles Registered Number of Dwelling Units Vehicles per Dwelling Unit (1) (2) (3) (4) 0 - 2 miles 6,842 13,347 0.512 2 - 3 miles 10,366 18,535 0.558 3 - 4 miles 12,447 25,581 0*486 4> 5 miles 17,563 30,144 0.583 5 - 6 miles 21,601 34,595 0.623 6 - 8 miles 12,162 33,250 0.366 8 * miles 6,681 9,587 0.697 87»662 165,039 0.531 Sources Col. (2)s From raw data provided by City Planning Department, City of Vancouver. CHAPTER II PRESENT TRAFFIC A. Analysis of t r a f f i c generation factors The main source of data f o r analysis of t r a f f i c genera-t i o n factors i s the Study on Highway Planning; by the Technical Committee on Metropolitan Highway Planning, Vancouver, made i n 1955. The data pertain to the Internal Area only, as shown on Map 1. l a p 2 shows the t r a f f i c d i s t r i c t s and t h e i r d i s -tances to the North Arm Area. Thus f o r the purposes of t h i s study, the t r a f f i c d i s t r i c t s are grouped according to t h e i r distance to the North Arm .Area. Table 1 shows the Motor Vehicle Registration i n the Internal Area as i n 1955. The vehicle per dwelling unit rate ranges from a meagre O.366 to a high of 0.697> while the average i s 0.531. The motor vehicle r e g i s t r a t i o n i s most emphatically not a function of distance. It denotes to a c e r t a i n extent the standard of l i v i n g i n the zone. However, i t i s easy to see that while a l l the zones within f i v e miles from the study area generally conform to the average r a t i o of motor vehicle r e g i s t r a t i o n , the other zones vary greatly. Th© 6-0 mile zone with the lowest r a t i o suggests that the general standsird of l i v i n g must be lower than elsewhere. It i s not a necessary 18 conclusion that a low r a t i o means a low generation f a c t o r . Nevertheless, the 8 miles and above zone with i t s high r a t i o i s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of a l l our suburb© because t h e i r low density and sprawl v i r t u a l l y compel the use of the automobile, since i t i s not possible to maintain economic t r a n s i t services. The next step was to calculate th© "Dwelling Unit Fac-tor" f o r each zone. Table 2 shows the computation, and the formula used Is T = D.N.M. and solve f o r "D" T Total Trips generated D * Dwelling Unit factor N = Number of d i a l l i n g units M = Motor Vehicles per dwelling Unit. The fa c t o r , thus computed, indicates th© p o t e n t i a l number of t r i p s generated by each dwelling unit i f i t possesses a motor v e h i c l e . This factor i s used In forecasting the t r i p o r i g i n s f o r l f ? l . As th© focus of study i s an I n d u s t r i a l area, i t i s necessary to f i n d out th© r e l a t i o n of work t r i p s to the t o t a l t r i p s o r i g i n a t i n g i n any r e s i d e n t i a l zone. In other words, I t i s required to compute work t r i p s o r i g i n a t i n g as a percentage of t o t a l t r i p s o r i g i n a t i n g . This i s shown i n Table 3» When the t o t a l t r i p s o r i g i n a t i n g are forecast f o r 1971? these per-centages are used to estimate the work t r i p s o r i g i n a t i n g i n each r e s i d e n t i a l zone. Further, to estimate the work-trips to the North Arm Area from these r e s i d e n t i a l zones, the "Work-Trip Ratio to follow page 18 TABLE! 2 • Total Trip Generation and Dwelling Unit Factor i n the Internal Area., Metropolitan Vancouver« 1955 Residential Zone (Distance from North Arm) Number of Dwelling Units (N) Vehicles per Dwelling Unit (I) Total Trip Origins (T) Dwelling Unit Factor (D) (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 0 - 2 miles 13,347 0.512 31,739 4.64 2 - 3 miles 18,535 0.558 43,353 4,17 3 - 4 miles 25,581 0.486 59,141 4.75 4 - 5 miles 30,144 0.583 98,042 5.58 5 - 6 ' miles 34,595 0.624 122,737 5.68 6 - 8 miles 33,250 0*366 64,165 5.28 8 4- miles 9,587 0.697 38,686 5.78 165,039 0.531 457,863 5.22 Sources Col. (2): from Table 1, Col. (3) Col. (3)s from Table 1, Col. (4) Col. (4); The Technical Committee on Metropolitan Highway Planning, "A Study of Highway Planning for the Metropolitan <Area of the Lower Mainland of B.C." City Planning Department, Vancouver, October 1956, Part I, p. 39. to follow page 18 TABLE 3. T o t a l Vehicle t r i p s and T o t a l Work Trips Generated i n the i n t e r n a l Area Metropolitan Vancouver* 1955 Residential Zone (Distance from Horth Arm) (1) T o t a l T r i p s O r i g i n (2) 0 - 2 miles 2 - 3 miles 3 - 4 miles 4 - 5 miles 5 - 6 miles 6 - 8 miles 8 * miles 31,739 43,353 59,141 98,042 122,737 64,165 38,686 457,863 Work Trips O r i g i n Work Trips as a % of T o t a l Trips O r i g i n (3) .(4.) 6*008 8,650 10,883 15,892 18,034 11,414 5,987 18.9 20.0 23 • 2 l6 .2 14.7 17.8 15.5 76,868 16.8 Source; C o l . (2): from Table 2, c o l . (4) C o l . (3)s from IBM cards supplied by C i t y Planning Department, C i t y of Vancouver. 19 20 Method" suggested by A* M. Voorhees Is used* It involves applying the maximum work tr i p ratio to the standard curve developed by him. The f i r s t step i s to calculate the work trip ratio for the Worth i>vm Area by using the formula, Total Work Trips to North Arm Average WoxfeTrip Ratio - T o t a l Work Trips i n the Internal Area 2964 The maximum work tr i p ratio i s , then, assumed to be 150$ of this value. Therefore, Maximum Work-Trip Ratio * 150$ of * 5*85$ A standardized curve of variation of work-trip ratios i s based on the distance from residential to the industrial area con-cerned. "Voorhees describes this curve as typical for both 21 a l l modes of travel and trips by auto drivers." The value of maximum work-trip ratio, as computed above, is then entered on the ve r t i c a l scale of the assumed standard curve shown on Chart 1 and work tri p ratios are estimated for each residential zone according to their distance from the North Arm Area. Another method of analysing work trips (shown i n Table 4) i s based on the land area i n industrial use i n the industrial area under consideration. Assuming the land w i l l attract the same density of work trips per acre i n 1971, these computed factors can be used for predicting the trips to the industrial area depending upon i t s developed acreage. Table 4 shows these to follow page 19 TABLE 4. Work Trips per Gross jAcre i n I n d u s t r i a l Areas, Metropolitan Vancouver, 1955 I n d u s t r i a l Area T r a f f i c D i s t r i c t s Land i n Ind. T o t a l Use T r i p s (acres) t© Work Trips to Work per Acre of Ind. Land (1) North Arm 35,45,55,66 False Creek 40,50,60 Waterfront 10,11 Burnaby North Burnaby Center 15,16,1? 27 New Westminster 91,281,283 Richmond 210 (2) 386 314 138 323 94 292 134 (3) 2964 6824 6008 918 235 1652 561 (4) 7.68 21.75 43.54 2.84 2.50 5.66 4.19 Source: Cols. (1) and (2) - The Technical Committee on Metropolitan Highway Planning, A Study on Highway, Planning f o r the Metropolitan Area of the Lower Mainland of B.C.«, C i t y Planning Department, Vancouver, October 1956, Part I, pp. 45-46. Col. (3): From IBM cards supplied by C i t y Planning Department, C i t y of Vancouver. Col. (4): Col. (3) divided by C o l . (2) 20 computations for various i n d u s t r i a l areas In Metropolitan Vancouver. T r i p s to work per acre of I n d u s t r i a l Land range from a low of 2.50 to a high of 43-54* This r e f l e c t s the wide d i v e r s i t y i n the i n t e n s i t y of land use. I t i s possible that these v a r i a t i o n s are due to high and low employment d e n s i t i e s . The high value i n the water front and False' Greek I n d u s t r i a l Areas i s due to the fact that t r i p s to these areas include a high percentage of work to vrork t r i p s . * These t r i p s might be r e s u l t i n g out of non-industrial uses i n the area. The North Arm Area with 7 . 6 8 t r i p s per acre compares well with other off-center i n d u s t r i a l areas of lew Westminster with 5 * 6 6 t r i p s / a c r e and Richmond with 4.19 t r i p s / a c r e . B. Testing; of the P r e d i c t i o n Technique The two factors, computed above. Dwelling Unit Factor-D (Table 2), and Work-Trip Ratio (Chart 1 ) , must be tested f o r t h e i r a p p l i c a b i l i t y before using them i n forecasting the t r a f f i c f o r 1 9 7 1 * The Dwelling Unit f a c t o r defines the number of t r i p s that would be generated by the dwelling unit i f i t possessed a vehi c l e . This factor has to be compared with experiences i n other c i t i e s and adjusted i f necessary. Chart 2 shows the number of t r i p s that would be generated by 1,000 dwelling units * T r i p s made by people at work to other places of work or business. 21 depending upon the vehicle-dwelling unit r a t i o and i s derived from Origin-Destination Surveys of 36 United States c i t i e s . Table 5 shows the t r i p s that would be generated i n each r e s i -d e n t i a l zone by both methods; i . e . , the dwelling unit f a c t o r derived i n Table 2 and i n Chart 2. By using the dwelling unit factor f o r each zone and taking the number of dwelling units equal to 1 , 0 0 0 , the t r i p s generated by these dwelling units are calculated i n Column (4). Again, the t r i p s generated by those 1,000 dwelling units can also be computed as shown i n Column ( 5 ) . The t r i p s from Column (5) are very low compared to the present t r a f f i c indicated by Column ( 4 ) . The reasons f o r t h i s difference cannot be analysed unless the land use pattern of these 36 United States c i t i e s can be compared to that of Van-couver. However, the low frequency of public t r a n s i t , low r e s i d e n t i a l d e nsities, and the recent sprawl i n outlying areas seem to be the cause of t h i s high t r a f f i c generation i n Vancouver. In any case, with the increase i n Vehicle-Dwelling Unit Ratio by 19711 Dwelling Unit Factor i s l i a b l e to decrease. This i s obvious because two vehicles attached to one dwelling unit w i l l not generate the same number of t r i p s . However, f o r the pur-poses of forecasting the t r a f f i c f o r 1971 the present conditions i n Vancouver are assumed to continue. Therefore, the Dwelling Unit Factors computed i n Table 2 are used and the factors from Chart 2 are rejected. The next step i s to test the work t r i p r a t i o s and adjust them where necessary. Table 6 shows the detailed computation. to follow page 21 TABLE 5 Estimate of Daily Txips per Thousand Dwelling Units using the Dwelling Unit Factor from Table 2, and Chart 2 for the Internal Area* Metropolitan Vancouver, 1955 Residential Zone (Distance from North Arm) Veh. per Dw. Unit Dw. Unit Factor (D) Daily Trips per Thousand Dwelling Units (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 0 - 2 miles 0.512 4.64 2.375 550 2 - 3 miles 0.558 4.17 2,325 700 3 - ^ 4 miles 0.486 4.75 2,309 5oo 4 - 5 miles 0.583 5*58 3,275 800 5 - 6 miles 0*624 5.68 3,547 925 6 - 8 miles 0.366 5.28 1,932 375 8 • miles 0.697 5.78 4,028 1,100 Sources Col. (2)s from Table 2, Col. (3) Col. (3): from Table 2, Col. (5) Col. (4)s Col. (2) X Col. (3) X 1,000 C o l . (5): from Chart 2. 22 F i r s t of a l l , the work t r i p r a t i o s f o r v a r i o u s r e s i d e n t i a l zones are taken from Chart 1 and entered i n Column ( 2 ) . Column (3) shows the t o t a l work t r i p s o r i g i n a t i n g i n each zone. From Table 4, Column ( 3 ) , the t o t a l work t r i p s to the Worth Arm Area equal 2964. T h i s t o t a l i s entered at the bottom of Column (5) i n Table 6. The f i r s t estimate of work t r i p s from each zone t o the North 'Arm £r ea i s obtained by m u l t i p l y i n g the work t r i p r a t i o (Column 2) by corresponding t o t a l work t r i p s o r i g i n a t i n g (Column 3 ) . The computations are c a r r i e d f o r each zone to give us a t o t a l of 2,289 t r i p s . However, the t o t a l work t r i p s to the North 4rm *&rea equal 2964. Therefore, f o r a l l these work t r i p s computed f o r each zone, an adjustment f a c t o r has t o be introduced so tha t the t o t a l comes to 2,964. T h i s f a c t o r i s 2964 -9- 2,289 or 1 .295, which i s then a p p l i e d to the t o t a l s of each zone. The adjusted number of t r i p s to the North Arm area from each zone are shown i n Column (5) of Table 6. How does t h i s standard d i s t r i b u t i o n of work t r i p s based on the "Standard work t r i p r a t i o c h a r t " compare w i t h the a c t u a l f i g u r e s of 1955? The t a b l e on page 23 I l l u s t r a t e s the d i f f e r -ence. The a c t u a l work t r i p s seem to be high i n 0 - 2 mile zone and low i n 3 - 4 mile zone. I t i s not p o s s i b l e to analyse t h i s unless we make a s i m i l a r survey of other i n d u s t r i a l areas to see i f t h i s phenomenon i s a c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of Vancouver. However, the reason f o r such high t r i p generation by 0 - 2 m i l e to f o l l o w page 22 SABLE 6 E s t i m a t e o f Work . T r i p s D e s t i n e d t o Worth Arm A r e a i n 1955. Based on the " S t a n d a r d Work T r i o R a t i o C h a r t " deve loped i n C h a r t I. D i s t a n c e Work T r i p T o t a l Work T r i p s t o Nor th $rm A r e a f rom N o r t h R a t i o T r i p s G r i g i -Arm ^ r e a ( C h a r t 1) a a t l n g C a l c u l a t e d A d j u s t e d ( l ) (2) (3) (4) (5) 0 - 2 miles 0.055 6,008 331 429 0 - 3 , f 0.045 8,650 389 504 3 - 4 " 0.036 10,883 392 508 4 - 5 * 0*030 15,892 477 618 5 - 6 " 0.026 18,034 469 607 6- 8 « 0.015 11,414 171 221 8* " 0.010 5,987 60 77 76,868 2,289 2,964 ( f rom T a b l e 4 C o l . 3) Adjustment F a c t o r » 2964 •* 2.2$9 Sources C o l (2)s f rom C h a r t 1 C o l (3)s f rom IBM C a r d s s u p p l i e d by C i t y P l a n n i n g Department , C i t y o f V a n c o u v e r . C o l (4) s C o l (2) X C o l (3) C o l (5): C o l (4) X 1.295 23 zone seems to be the fact that most, of the workers come from developed parts of the C i t y of Vancouver. It also shows that employee residences tend to be near the work places. The three to four mile zone contains large parts of Richmond with vacant land, Burnaby, and Vancouver, where workers are attracted by other i n d u s t r i a l areas. Thus, t h i s zone i s subject to the at t r a c t i v e power of other i n d u s t r i a l areas i n addition to large tract's of vacant land. Nevertheless, a l l other zones seem to compare well with the standard work t r i p d i s t r i b u t i o n . However, for the purposes of projection of future t r a f f i c , i t i s assumed that the d i s t r i b u t i o n of employee residences x#lll follow the standard pattern as represented i n Chart 2 as the North Arm Area develops to maturity. Work Tr i p s to North Arm Area* 1955 Residential 2one Calculated and Actual Work (Distance from Adjusted Work Trips North arm) Trips . (Table 6, Col.5) . (1) (2) (3) 0 - 2 miles 429 70? 2 - 3 miles 504 544 3 - 4 miles 508 294 4 - 5 miles 6 l 8 482 5 - 6 miles 607 532 6 - 8 miles 221 292 8 * miles 77 113 2,964 2,964 Sources C o l . ( 2 ) : Table 6, Col. (5) Col. (3): from IBM cards supplied by C i t y Planning Department, C i t y of Vancouver. Or v: \ s 4 TRAFFIC GENERATION IN THE AIORTH ARM INDUSTRIAL AREA. FALSE CfiEBki. Journey T<, W o « c . /0-3 Ho*te To TfitPs ^2. 24 C. Journey to Work i n North. Arm,iArea On further examination of the above analysis, c e r t a i n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the home to work journey pattern are evident* It i s intended, i n t h i s section, to analyse b r i e f l y the journey to work pattern of the North Irm Area and compare i t \*ith that of the Fa3.se Creek Area i n Vancouver, and with some United States experiences. It i s e s s e n t i a l to note here that the False Creek Area i s c e n t r a l l y located i n the C i t y of Vancouver and i s one of th© mature industrial, areas of the c i t y . The types of industry i n False Creek are quite d i f f e r e n t from those of the North Arm Area which might make a difference i n the number or percentage of workers using automobiles, l a p 3 shows the d i s t r i b u t i o n of employee residences f o r the North ^rm, and Map 4 f o r False Creek. These two maps i n d i -cate that the majority of workers come from the C i t y of Vancouver i r r e s p e c t i v e of the distance to t h e i r work places. The l o c a t i o n of these two i n d u s t r i a l areas i n r e l a t i o n to the b u i l t up areas of the Internal Area makes possible the v a r i a t i o n i n distances t r a v e l l e d by workers i n both i n d u s t r i a l areas. In th© ease of the North Arm, the 8 miles and over zone passes through vast vacant areas while f o r False Creek the same distance zone passes through f a i r l y b u i l t up areas. The 6 - 8 mile zone f o r False Creek passes through unbuilt up areas, while 6 - 8 mile zone f o r the North Arm i s f a i r l y b u i l t up. 25 The e f f e c t of the above, i . e . , the l o c a t i o n of the i n d u s t r i a l areas In r e l a t i o n to the general r e s i d e n t i a l land use i n the Internal Area, i s e a s i l y seen from Table 7 « While the North Arm has a very low percentage ( 3 * 7 $ of workers from 8 * mile zone), False Creek has 8 . 1 $ f o r the same distance. Again while False Creek draws a low 5*2$ of workers from th© 6 - 8 mile zone, North Arm draws 1 0 . 8 $ from the same distance zone. /As explained above, t h i s i s e s s e n t i a l l y because of the l o c a t i o n of the Indus-t r i a l area i n r e l a t i o n to the general r e s i d e n t i a l land use pattern. In contrast to the b e l i e f that i n d u s t r i a l plants tend to influence the r e s i d e n t i a l development, the industry has no such ef f e c t or influence i f r e s i d e n t i a l development precedes industry as i n the case of the North .Arm. The general trend, however, has been i n both eases f o r employee residences to be near to work places. Table 7 indi-r-cates that f o r both areas 4 1 . 9 $ of workers come from within 3 miles and 85$ - 87$ come from within 6 miles. While False Creek draws 8 1 $ from within 5 miles, the North Arm has 69.7$ from the same distance. This i s e s s e n t i a l l y because of the central loca-t i o n of False Creek and the a v a i l a b i l i t y of housing i n that distance zone. In the case of outlying areas l i k e the North Arm, i t i s also i n d i c a t i v e that h a l f the workers tend to l i v e beyond 4 miles. In addition, about 15$ of workers come from beyond 6 miles. Thus we can conclude that: 1. The majority of workers wouid prefer to l i v e within 4 miles of t h e i r work place. to f o l l o w page 25 TABLE 7 Coixuautinsi D i s t a n c e s o f I n d u s t r i a l Workers i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver. 1 9 5 5 Percentage D i s t r i b u t i o n by Di s t a n c e F a l s e Creek A r e a Worth Arm I r e a Indus A r e a a t r i a l Number Cumulative 38 % Number i Cumulative % 0 - 2 m i l e s 886 21.2 21.2 577 23.2 23-2 2 - 3 m i l e s 865 2017 41.9 464 18.7 41.9 3--> 4 m i l e s 999 24.0 65.9 268 10.8 52.7 4 - 5 m i l e s 628 15.1 81.0 422 17.0 69.7 5 -. 6 m i l e s 237 5.7 86.7 392 15.8 85.5 6 - 8 m i l e s 216 5.2 91.9 268 10.8 96.3 8 *> m i l e s 340 8.1 100.0 93 3.7 100.0 100.0 2484 ioo.o Source: From IBM cards s u p p l i e d by C i t y P l a n n i n g Department, C i t y o f Vancouver. 26 2, T h e r e i s a t e n d e n c y i n b o t h a r e a s f o r w o r k e r s ' r e s i d e n c e s t o be w i t h i n 6 m i l e s 3, In t h e c a s e o f o f f - c e n t e r i n d u s t r i a l a r e a s , d i s t a n c e d o e s n o t seem t o h a v e as much e f f e c t a s i n t h e c e n t r a l a r e a s . T h i s m i g h t a l s o be due t o t h e f a c t t h a t t r a v e l t i m e i n o u t l y i n g a r e a s f o r t h e same d i s t a n c e i s l e s s t h a n I n c e n t r a l a r e a s b e c a u s e o f h e a v y t r a f f i c i n t h e l a t t e r c a s e . W h e t h e r t h i s p a t t e r n o f d i s t r i b u t i o n i n t h e N o r t h A r m i s d e s i r a b l e s h o u l d b e t h e c o n c e r n o f t h e p l a n n e r . N e v e r t h e -l e s s , i t c a n b e s e e n f r o m C o l u m n (3) o f T a b l o 2 a n d f r o m C h a r t 3 t h a t i n t h e N o r t h A r m a r e a , t h e w o r k e r s t r a v e l m o r e t h a n t h e a v e r a g e a s e x p e r i e n c e d I n s i x s t a t e s o f t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s i n 1951* C h a r t 3 s h o w s t h a t n e a r l y 59$ o f w o r k e r s come f r o m w i t h i n 3 m i l e s w h i l e i n t h e c a s e o f t h e N o r t h A rm i t i s 4 1 . 9 o n l y , a n d t h e f i g u r e s f o r t h e 4 m i l e z o n e a r e 63$ a n d 52.7$ f o r b o t h e a s e s r e s p e c t i v e l y . T h i s i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e r e I s a w i d e d i s p e r s a l o f v r a r k e r s i n t h e N o r t h A r m A r e a a n d d i s t a n c e s up t o 5 a l i o s d o n o t make a n y s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e f o r c o m m u t e r s . I t i s p o s s i b l e t h a t a s t h e N o r t h A r m A r e a d e v e l o p s t o m a t u r i t y , i t w i l l t e n d t o f o l l o x * t h e e x p e r i e n c e o f F a l s e C r e e k r a t h e r t h a n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s c i t i e s ( C h a r t 3) b e c a u s e o f t h e a v a i l a -b i l i t y o f h o u s i n g and p e c u l i a r i t y o f l a n d u s e I n t h e I n t e r n a l A r e a . CHAPTER III FUTURE TRAFFIC The t r a f f i c generation factors — i . e . , the dwelling unit factor, r a t i o of work t r i p s to t o t a l t r i p s generated and work t r i p r a t i o — are used i n estimating the future t r a f f i c volumes f o r any p a r t i c u l a r area. These factors are useful only when applied to the estimated number of dwelling units f o r any one year. The number of dwelling units can be deduced d i r e c t l y from population forecasts. However, i t i s not intended to make population forecasts i n t h i s chapter but to accept forecasts already made f o r the area and the year con-cerned. Thus the t r a f f i c generation f a c t o r s , analysed and tested i n the preceding chapter, are used to forecast the t r a f f i c volume for the North Arm Area i n 1971. Thus, to predict the t r a f f i c i n 1971, the f i r s t data required are the number of dwelling units and t h e i r l o c a t i o n i n 1971* For purposes of prediction, the population forecasts made by the Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board i n A p r i l , 22 1957, are assumed for a l l parts of the Internal Area except the C i t y of Vancouver. For the C i t y of Vancouver, because of the a v a i l a b i l i t y of data, calculations are made (as shown i n Appendix I) based on present d e n s i t i e s , a v a i l a b i l i t y of 28 unoccupied r e s i d e n t i a l land and the prospects of urban renewal. An average dwelling unit density of 3.2 persons/ dwelling unit i s assumed f o r a l l areas. Based on the acre-age of unoccupied r e s i d e n t i a l land and present density, the p o t e n t i a l number of dwelling units that can be b u i l t i n a d i s t r i c t are calculated. By 1971, 60$ of these dx-relllng units are assumed to be b u i l t . • In areas outside the Gity of Vancouver the d i s t r i b u t i o n of dwelling units i s based on present density, size of the t r a f f i c d i s t r i c t , and p o t e n t i a l growth i n population. A l l assumptions made are l i s t e d separately i n Appendix I. A f t e r c a l c u l a t i n g the number of dwelling units, the motor vehicle-dwelling unit r a t i o must be calculated. For t h i s purpose, the growth i n the index of motor vehicles per capita f o r B r i t i s h Columbia i s assumed f o r t r a f f i c d i s t r i c t s . The index of motor vehicles per dwelling unit follows the same trend as the index of motor vehicles per capita, as there i s a constant of 3*2 multiple between the two. The detailed calculations are shown i n Tables 8 and 9 and Chart 4 . The number of dwelling units calculated previously are di s t r i b u t e d into various distance zones. Table 10 shows the c a l c u l a t i o n of t o t a l t r i p s o r i g i n a t i n g i n various distance zones. By applying the work t r i p percentages and work t r i p r a t i o s as shown i n Table 11, work t r i p s to the North Arm Area i n 1971 are calculated. to follow page 28 TABLE 8 Projection of T r a f f i c Growth State of Washington Year Population Motor Vehicle Indexes of Registration Motor Vehicles 1922 1,400,000 225,000 100 1930 1,560,000 450,000 181 1940 1,750,000 570,000 206 1950 2,450,000 910,000 231 I960 2,970,000 1,200,000 250 Sources The Technical Committee on Metropolitan Highway Planning, Submission to Royal Commission on Canada's Economic Prospects, Vancouver, September 1955, Appendix IV B. Notes - This table i s used i n Chart 4. to follow page 28 TABLE 9 Projection of Motor Vehicle Registration B r i t i s h Columbia Year Population Index of Motor Vehicles per capita (1) (2) (3) (4) 1941 817,000 100 194? 1,000,000 109 1948 1,040,000 118 1949 1,080,000 130 1950 1,120,000 147 1951 1,165,000 152 1952 1,195,000 167 from chart 4 1953 1,230,000 I69 1955 1,330,000 178 100 1956 1,500,000 186 105 1971 2,316,900 - 233 Sources. The Technical Committee on Metropolitan Highway Planning, Submission to Royal Commission on Canada's Economic Pros- pects, Vancouver, September 1955, Appendix IV B. Notes 1. For purposes of our projection of motor vehicles regis-tration in 1971 for British Columbia, i t has been assumed that the index w i l l follow the same growth pattern from 1941-71 as has been experienced for the State of Washing-ton for the period 1920-50. 2. The index of motor vehicles per capita and the index of motor vehicles per dwelling unit are practically the same as the size of the dwelling unit i n terms of popu-lation has not changed considerable since 1941. 3. The value for the above index for 1971 for B r i t i s h Columbia is taken from Chart 4 for a population of 2,316,900. 4. The year 1955 with a population of 1,330,000 is taken as the base with index 2 100 and the index for 1956 Is calculated corresponding to a population of 1,500,000. Table IG Estimate of. Trips o r i g i n a t i n g i n 1971 i n the Internal Area Zone Distance from M.A. M..V. per D.U. i n 1955 Motor V. per D.U. Index i n 1971 Motor V. per D.U. i n 1971 No-, of D.U. 1971 D.U. Factor T o t a l Trips Originating i n 1971 (1) (2) From Table 9 C o l . 4 (3) Cols (1) X (2) 100 (4) (5) From Tab. 2 Col. 5 (6) (3)x(4)x(5> 0 - 2 G.512 233 1.193 14,244 4.64 78,848 2 - 3 0.558 233 1.300 24,347 4.17 131,985 3 - 4 0,486 233 1.132 31,456 4.75 169,138 4 - 5 0.583 233 1.359 45,620 5.58 345,949 5 - 6 0.624 233 1.454 40,051 5.68 330,769 6 - 8 0.366 233 0.853 56,399 5.28 254,010 8* 0.697 233 1,625 37,021 5.78 347,719 249,138 1,658,418 Sources C o l . (1)s from Table 1, Col. (4) Col. (2): from Table 9, Col. (4) C o l . (3): Col. (1) x Col. (2) Col. (4)s Number of dwelling units i n 1971 i n each zone i s adapted from the various estimates made i n Appendix I according to t h e i r distance to North Arm Area. C o l . (5): from Table 2, Col. (5) Col. (6)s Col. (3) x Col. (4) x Col. (5). T A B L E 11 Estimate of Work Trips to North Arm Area i n 1971 Distance from North Arm Total Vehicle T r i p Orig. Work Trips as >1 of t o t a l t r i p origins Work T r i p Origins Work T r i p Hatio Adjustment Factor (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) 0 - 2 78,848 18.9 14,900 0.055 1.295 2 - 3 131,985 20.0 26,397 0.045 1.295 3 - 4 169,138 23.2 39,270 0.036 1.295 4 - 5 345,949 16.2 56,040 G.030 1.295 5 - 6 330,769 14.7 49,870 0.026 1.295 6 - 8 254,010 17.8 46,480 0.015 1.295 8 • 347,719 15.5 55,260 0.010 1.295 1,658,418 17.4 288,217 Work Trips North Arm Area (75 1.086 1 . 5 7 7 1,877 1 , 6 8 0 l,68o 901 7 1 6 9 , 8 7 2 Sources C o l . (2): from Table 10, Col. (6) C o l . (3)J from Table 3, Col. (4) Col. (4); Col. (2) x Col. (3) C o l . (5): from Table 6, Col. (2) Col. (6): from Table 6 Col. (7)s Col. (4) x Col. (5) x Co l . (6) 29 Table IG indicates that there w i l l be 249,138 dwelling units and approximately 797,000* people by 1971 i n the Internal Area compared to 530,600 people i n 1956. 2^ I f t h i s population figure i s reached as forecast, i t w i l l r e s u l t i n a tremendous physical expansion to provide places of work, housing and com-mercial establishments to cater f o r the needs of the population. The development of these land uses w i l l cause large increases i n the t r a v e l within the area and s i g n i f i c a n t changes i n t r a v e l pattern. In short, the highway requirements consequent on t h i s development i n population, motor v e h i c l e s , and land use, w i l l be enormous. It i s assumed, f o r the purposes of t h i s forecast, that by 1971 the t r a f f i c d i s t r i c t s 035, 045, 055, 066, and 037 (portion south of Marine Drive only) w i l l be f u l l y developed i n d u s t r i a l l y . This gives the North Arm Area i n 1971 an area 24 of 3,018 acres under i n d u s t r i a l use. The number of work t r i p s destined to the North /firm Area can also be calculated by another method based on the gross area of land under i n d u s t r i a l use. In t h i s , i t i s assumed that the number of work t r i p s to any i n d u s t r i a l area i s proportional to the area of land under indus-t r i a l use. However, d i f f e r e n t i n d u s t r i a l areas generate di f f e r e n t amounts of t r i p s depending upon the types of industries, l o c a t i o n i n r e l a t i o n to transportation f a c i l i t i e s , a v a i l a b i l i t y * Density i s assumed at 3«2 persons/dwelling unit. ** See map 2 f o r t r a f f i c d i s t r i c t s . 3Q of housing nearby and the employment density. Employment density whether i t i s i n terms of persons per acre or plant Is a function of the p a r t i c u l a r industry and thus depends upon the type. On the other hand, the other two factors mentioned above are related to the o v e r a l l c i t y structure. Nevertheless i n the absence of a l l the data, the following method of fore-casting future t r a f f i c Is useful f o r purposes of comparison. It can be seen from Table 4 that the capacities of various industries to generate t r a f f i c varies widely from 2.5 t r i p s / a c r e to 43.54 t r i p s / a c r e . For purposes of forecast, as shown below, False Creek and Richmond Areas are considered with the North Arm, and others rejected as not relevant to our case. North Arm In d u s t r i a l Area i n 1971 ( t r a . dts. 035, 045? 055, 066, 037 South of Marine Drive Only) 3,018 acres. TABLE 12 Work T r i p s to North, Arm Area, i n 1971 based on Gross Area of Land under I n d u s t r i a l Use Basis T r i p s to Work To North Arm Area i n (Table 4) 1971 65,600 (High) 1. False Creek 21.75 t r i p s / a c r e 2. Present North Arm 7.68 t r i p s / a c r e 23,200 Richmond 4.19 tr i p s / a c r e 12,600 (Low) Notes Figures are rounded o f f to the nearest hundred. It i s assumed that 3,018 acres w i l l be f u l l y developed and used f o r industry only. 31 Table 11 shows an estimate of 9*872 work t r i p s to the North Arm Area per day compared to 2,964 work t r i p s i n 1955 (Table 4). This means that the work t r i p s i n 1971 w i l l be 2.33 times the current work t r i p s . , The estimate i s quite con-servative and i s based on the assumption that the drawing poWer of the North Arm, i n r e l a t i o n to other i n d u s t r i a l areas i n the c i t y w i l l not increase because the current work t r i p r a t i o s are assumed f o r forecasting i n Table 11. However, the drawing power i s bound to increase by 1971 because of the a v a i l a b i l i t y of land compared to other i n d u s t r i a l areas where expansion i s li m i t e d . On the other hand, an estimate based on the area of land under i n d u s t r i a l use gives a minimum of 12,700 t r i p s to the North Arm Area by 1971 (Table 12). In t h i s estimate, i t i s assumed that there i s no p o s s i b i l i t y of c o n t r o l l i n g the employ-ment densities i n various i n d u s t r i e s . As t r a f f i c generated i s d i r e c t l y a function of the number of people employed, t h i s i s a very important f a c t o r . At present, there i s no d i r e c t control on employment den s i t i e s . However, planners can i n d i r e c t l y Influence the density by the type of industry permitted. This i s only an i n d i r e c t control and does not go f a r In act u a l l y c o n t r o l l i n g the t r a f f i c generated. The type of industries i n the North Arm Area Is quite diverse and ranges from wood products to s t e e l r o l l i n g m i l l s . The most dominating industry i s wood products. Assuming t h i s 32 diversity to continue and thus provide similar employment densities, the estimate of work trips to the North Arm Area is 23?200 trips/day (Table 12). This i s 7«82 times the work trips in 1955 which i s a tremendous increase. The methods used i n the forecasts above (Table 11 and Table 12) are the cause of the difference i n the number of trips actually forecast. However, the method used i n Table 11 assumes the drawing power of the North Arm to be the same in 1971• This is bound to increase as the North Arm develops to maturity and new industries are established. From the total work trips generated i n the Internal Area, th© North Arm Area w i l l have a bigger share i n 1971 than i n 1955. It can be safely assumed that at worst i t s t r i p generating capacity w i l l remain the same,- i.e., 7»68 trips/acre (Table 12), and not decrease. Therefore, for purposes of examining the planning implications of the t r a f f i c volumes in 1971? the forecast of 23,200 trips/day (Table 12), based on the current generation capacity of the North Arm, i s taken and the forecast made In Table 11 i s rejected. A majority (almost 90$) of the present work trips to the North Arm are home to work tri p s . In 1955? out of a total of 2,964 work trips to the North Arm (Table 4) home to work trips were 2,484 (Table 7) which is approximately 84$ of the t o t a l . Thus with the projected 23,200 work trips to the North Arm, there w i l l be approximately 19?500 (84$) home to 33 work t r i p s which w i l l be performed during the morning peak hours. ; What does t h i s t r a f f i c mean to the planner? Is our a r t e r i a l system capable of handling t h i s t r a f f i c ? If not, what should be done — t h i s i s the problem that the planners face i n our c i t y . CHAPTER IV PLANNING IMPLICATIONS The subject of t r a f f i c analysis constitutes one of the elements of planning methodology which has been only p a r t i a l l y explored and which common practice has not yet established. Notwithstanding, day-to-day decisions have to be made i n plan-ning, designing and operating the transportation f a c i l i t i e s . These decisions must be made after c a r e f u l consideration of the various t r a f f i c forecasts. Nevertheless, the v a l i d i t y of these t r a f f i c forecasts i s i t s e l f a questionable matter* It Is also recognised that formalas cannot always substitute f o r judgment i n the planning f i e l d . Furthermore, the information r e l a t i n g to t r a f f i c estimating i s widely scattered and resident i n empiricism and judgment. The analysis of the current t r a f f i c volumes and the forecast f o r 1 9 7 1 , discussed i n previous chapters, was based on c e r t a i n assumptions with respect to population and land use. Therefore, the v a l i d i t y and accuracy of these forecasts depend on the v a l i d i t y of the assumptions made. It was assumed that present population d e n s i t i e s , i n various t r a f f i c d i s t r i c t s i n the Internal Area, w i l l continue to be the same i n 1 9 7 1 * Any change i n these densities due to change In p o l i c i e s w i l l change the volume of t r a f f i c o r i g i n a t i n g i n each t r a f f i c d i s t r i c t . 35 It was also assumed that the North Arm would he a f u l l y devel-oped i n d u s t r i a l area with 3>Ol8 acres of land i n i n d u s t r i a l use i n 1971 • Changes i n planning p o l i c y adversely affecting t h i s assumption w i l l have a d i r e c t e f f e c t on t r a f f i c forecasts. Furthermore, the attractive power of the North Arm i n r e l a t i o n to the other i n d u s t r i a l areas was assumed to continue to he the same i n 1971. This power may change i f new areas are developed and compete fo r I n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n . How much land w i l l he used by industry on the south bank of the Fraser River (Richmond), and whether new arteries w i l l be developed to divert or d i s t r i b u t e the present t r a f f i c i n the North Arm, w i l l a l l affect the future t r a f f i c volumes. Present t r a v e l habits were assumed to continue and the use of public t r a n s i t to diminish. These assumptions depend greatly on trends, developments, and p o s s i b i l i t i e s i n metropolitan transportation and land use. Furthermore, vehicle usage changes constantly as new and improved roads are developed. However, these forecasts do have the purpose of i n d i c a t i n g the nature of the problems of metropolitan transportation that l i e ahead of us. It Is the purpose of t h i s chapter to examine b r i e f l y some of the more s i g n i f i c a n t planning Implications of these projected t r a f f i c volumes. The v a l i d i t y of these implica-tions depends upon the v a l i d i t y of the t r a f f i c forecasts. Further, i t i s the main purpose of t h i s chapter to show the nature of the relationship between t r a f f i c analysis and planning methodology. It i s also an attempt to point out the planning implications of the projected t r a f f i c volumes fo r the North Arm 36 Area, assuming that these forecasts w i l l m a t e r i a l i z e . Transportat ion f a c i l i t i e s and the a r t e r i a l network i n general i n the Worth Arm Area cannot be considered i n i s o l a t i o n . I t has to be considered as a part of the o v e r a l l t ranspor ta t ion network of th© Metropol i tan Area . However, c e r t a i n a r t e r i a l s and other f a c i l i t i e s p r i m a r i l y serve the l o c a l area. Fur ther-more, any improvement i n these f a c i l i t i e s w i l l ease the s i t u a t i o n l o c a l l y . Therefore, the impl icat ions of the projected t r a f f i c volumes w i l l have to be examined i n the l i g h t of present t r a v e l patterns and the f a c i l i t i e s serving the area. At present, a majori ty of workers to the North Arm Area come from the 0-6 mile zone. This tendency i s not l i a b l e to change by 1971 because of the a v a i l a b i l i t y of housing i n t h i s zone. Vancouver, Burnaby, and Richmond .are located idLthin t h i s zone. In the present t r a v e l pat tern , t r a v e l to the North Arm Area does not c o n f l i c t with t r a v e l to the other I n d u s t r i a l areas except on Marine Drive and the Fraser Street br idges . On other a r t e r i a l s there i s not much congestion during the peak hours because the general d i r e c t i o n of t r a f f i c from Richmond i s opposite to that coming to the North Arm (See Map 1). How-ever, of ten there i s congestion during the peak hours due to i n e f f i c i e n t t r a f f i c c o n t r o l . Furthermore, some a r t e r i a l s are of two-lane width only which delays through t r a f f i c when people t u r n , enter or park. It Is e s s e n t i a l , there fore , to widen a l l these a r t e r i a l s and make them ' l i m i t e d access . ' 37 A. A r t e r i a l s 1. Marine Drive Among the a r t e r i a l s , Marine Drive (Map 1) occupies an important p o s i t i o n In the metropolitan transportation network as. i t passes through the Worth Arm Area, Bast-West. In addition to being an a r t e r i a l , i t i s an important outlet f o r the t r a f f i c moving out of the metropolitan area. It c a r r i e s a large amount of i n t e r - c i t y t r a f f i c also. At present, i t has two lanes only. The maximum capacity f o r a r t e r i a l s i s e s t i -mated at 500-600 veh/hr/lane v/lthout allowing f o r undue conges-t i o n . However, i n the ease of an a r t e r i a l such as Marine Drive, the capacity i s greatly reduced because of i t s l i m i t e d \-7idth and hazards created by parking and turning. In the l i g h t of the forecast, the present width of Marine Drive i s very inadequate. During peak hours t h i s artery should be capa-ble of taking a considerable portion of the t o t a l t r a f f i c (about 40$) to and from the North Arm* With a forecast of 19.500 home to work t r i p s (page 33)» the future capacity of Marine Drive would have to be about 8,000 (40$) home to work t r i p s which would be performed during 2^ to 3 hours time. Therefore, to meet the demand of t h i s t r a f f i c , Marine Drive must be widened to at least 8 lanes and made limited access. However, a new East-West Expressway with similar capacity might be a better alternative to the long range solution of the metropolitan t r a f f i c problem. 38 2. Granville Street Considering the North-South a r t e r l a l s , G r anville Street i s the widest of a l l and leads d i r e c t l y into the central business d i s t r i c t . T r a f f i c control, at present, i s reasonably good and does not s t a l l the t r a f f i c . Whatever the number of vehicles t r a v e l l i n g south on t h i s artery to the North Arm Area, i t w i l l not int e r f e r e with the general d i r e c t i o n of t r a f f i c which i s towards the central business d i s t r i c t . In addition It i s a six-lane a r t e r i a l with a designed capacity of 1 , 5 0 0 -1,80© Veh/hr each way. Nevertheless, by 1 9 7 1 I t has to be made limited access or else another expressway should be b u i l t . 3. Oak Street Oak Street, on the other hand, i s gaining importance and attracting more t r a f f i c because of the new Oak Street Bridge allowing f o r d i r e c t access to Lulu Island. At present, i t does not seem to suffer from congestion. However, to maintain a steady and e f f i c i e n t t r a f f i c flow and because of i t s projected l i n k (the Deas Island Tunnel) to the United States border which w i l l r e s u l t i n higher t r a f f i c volumes, i t w i l l have to be widened to at least s i x lanes and made li m i t e d access. 4. Fraser Street This i s another North-South a r t e r i a l which suffers from very heavy congestion during peak hours. It has a width of four lanes only to Marine Drive and i s connected to Lulu Island by bridges which are old and dilapidated. Two of these lanes 39 are rendered useless f o r through t r a f f i c because of turning and parking. Thus the capacity, at present, i s about 5 0 0 - 6 0 0 veh/hr which i s very inadequate. Congestion on t h i s a r t e r i a l during peak hours i s a common occurrence. I n the l i g h t of the forecast and the metropolitan transportation network, construction of a North-South Expressway with 6 - *8 lanes i s thoroughly j u s t i f i e d . I t can. e i t h e r be done by widening the present Fraser Street or by constructing a new one. B . Crossings 1. Oak Street Bridge This bridge \#hieh has been recently constructed i s a 4 lane expressway with a speed l i m i t of 40 mph. It can handle about 3,000 veh/hr each way. At the present time, there i s no congestion on the bridge. nevertheless, the presence of t o l l s on t h i s bridge has diverted many vehicles to t o l l - f r e e crossing on Fraser Street. Furthermore, i t needs to be pointed out here that i t i s going to a t t r a c t a tremendous volume of t r a f f i c from other a r t e r i a l s i n the Metropolitan Area because of i t s projected l i n k to the United States ©order through the Deas Island Tunnel. With the tremendous increase In population, and thus In projected t r a f f i c , even the new bridge w i l l be inadequate to cope with t r a f f i c In 1971. -A north*south expressway might ease the s i t u a -t i o n to some extent. Nevertheless, i t i s necessary to examine the adequacy of t h i s street and the bridge as a means of handling l o c a l , i n t e r - c i t y , and in t e r n a t i o n a l t r a f f i c into and out of the Metropolitan Area. 40 2. Fraser Street Bridges These bridges are old semi-permanent structures which were designed to carry a minor f r a c t i o n of even the current t r a f f i c . Because of s t r u c t u r a l and other handicaps, the speed of vehicles i s r e s t r i c t e d to 20 mph, and t h i s slows down the general t r a f f i c to a great extent* Congestion, at present, i s a common occurrence during peak hours. The absence of t o l l s , i n contrast to the Oak Street Bridge, attracts a l o t of t r a f f i c from Sea Island and parts of Lulu Island. The l i m i t e d widths, the dilapidated s t r u c t u r a l appearance and the present volume of t r a f f i c make i t imperative f o r the construction of at least one new bridge i n place of these old bridges. In addition to t h i s crossing, i t i s neces-sary to provide a new crossing to the east of Fraser Street and west of New Westminster to f a c i l i t a t e easy handling of the Metropolitan t r a f f i c . C. Land Use P o l i c y Coordination of land use p o l i c y and the i n t e r - r e l a t i o n of transportation f a c i l i t i e s between any two adjacent municipali-t i e s i s e s s e n t i a l to achieve economic and e f f i c i e n t land use. This problem i s more pronounced when i t concerns i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n . While most municipalities want the industries to be located within t h e i r boundaries, i t should not r e s u l t i n un-healthy competition f o r such i n d u s t r i a l l o c a t i o n . In the absence of a uniform p o l i c y , unnecessary competition f o r bringing i n 41 i n d u s t r i e s w i l l p r e v a i l . ©ften, m u n i c i p a l i t i e s do t h i s by zoning land f o r i n d u s t r i a l purposes, i n excess o f t h e i r r e -quirements and t h e i r p o t e n t i a l i t i e s . • P a r t i c u l a r l y w i t h reference to the North Aria Area, I t i s necessary to get the m u n i c i p a l i t i e s of faneouver* Burnaby and Richmond to come to an agreement as to the r e s e r v a t i o n or zoning of land f o r i n d u s t r i a l use. This task i s rendered d i f f i c u l t i n th® absence of a me t r o p o l i t a n government. How-ever, to achieve maximum u t i l i z a t i o n of l a n d , i t i s necessary to e l i m i n a t e any uneconomic competition among these m u n i c i p a l i -t i e s f o r new I n d u s t r i e s , I n the ©vent of s c a t t e r e d and l o p -s i d e d development r e s u l t i n g from the uncoordinated land use p o l i c i e s , the demand f o r t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s ( l a n e - m i l e s of highways) can be more than expected. T h i s w i l l not only r e s u l t l a wastage of land but al s o i n a c o s t l y t r a n s p o r t a t i o n network. Therefore i t i s suggested that these m u n i c i p a l i t i e s coordinate t h e i r land use p o l i c i e s through a committee of t h e i r own u n t i l a me t r o p o l i t a n government i s e s t a b l i s h e d . An economic a n a l y s i s , as t o whether the r e s u l t i n g bene-f i t s w i l l balance the costs ©f a d d i t i o n a l t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i -t i e s needed, must be made i n order t o decide the amount of land that should be zoned f o r i n d u s t r i a l use. Such an a n a l y s i s should be d i r e c t e d towards e x p l o r i n g other a l t e r n a t i v e areas i n M e t r o p o l i t a n Vancouver f o r i n d u s t r i a l use i f the burden of p r o v i d i n g a d d i t i o n a l t r a n s p o r t a t i o n f a c i l i t i e s can be e l i m i n a t e d . 42 When the North Arm Area i s f u l l y developed, i t i s essen-t i a l to coordinate residential development with Vancouver, Burnaby and Richmond to provide housing for industrial workers within a reasonable distance of this industrial area. S u f f i -cient land should be zoned for residential use preferably near to this industrial area. This w i l l give a tremendous oppor-tunity to the planners to prove that housing and industry can " l i v e " side by side when careful planning i s followed. There is ample evidence of this i n other countriesj i.e. the United States and the United Kingdom. Low rental housing projects located around the North Arm (Area, to provide housing f a c i l i t i e s for industrial workers, should also be considered. Provision of housing near the North Arm Area w i l l , to a great extent, ease the present situation regarding the morning journey to work. Location of housing within a walkable distance from work places may eventually eliminate a major percentage of work t r i p s . Unless an altogether new system of transportation f a c i l i t i e s with expressways i s built — \*hich of course would be very costly — the only way to solve the problem i s by indirect means. This can be achieved by reduction of work trips either by provision of housing within %tfalking distances or by zoning the whole area for residential and recreational use only. Provision for more housing near the North Arm Area can also be made by increasing the residential density of the adjacent neighbourhoods consisting of t r a f f i c d i s t r i c t s 033 • 034, 037, 044, 054, 065 and the northern portion of t r a f f i c d i s t r i c t 214 ( s e e 43 map 2 ) , f o do t h i s , the planning p o l i c y v i s - a - v i s industry and housing i n the municipalities of Vancouver, Burnaby and Richmond w i l l have to be coordinated. I t i s possible that such an increase i n r e s i d e n t i a l density i n these t r a f f i c d i s -t r i c t s w i l l attract more workers to l i v e there and thus reduce the present t r a f f i c load on the a r t e r i e s . Another possible sol u t i o n i s the c o n t r o l l i n g of hours of work of i n d u s t r i e s . The necessity f o r huge numbers of workers t r a v e l l i n g at the same time arises from the f a c t that a l l industries customarily st a r t work at the same time. By permitting some industries to start e a r l i e r and some l a t e r , the home to work t r i p s concentrated i n an hour of morning t r a f f i c could then be spread over two or three hours, reducing congestion and bottlenecks. Perhaps the best way to achieve these staggered working hours i s by mutual agreement of the industries concerned. Control of employment densities might also be considered as a measure of checking the growth of t r a f f i c beyond the means or f a c i l i t i e s available. Certain industries use more man power than others. Certain other industries i n e v i t a b l y fend to locate i n the North Arm Area because of i t s nearness to the a i r p o r t . Aviation and el e c t r o n i c industries are i n t h i s category. Indus-t r i e s l i k e e lectronics eould be permitted, compared to wood products, because of lower employment d e n s i t i e s . On the other hand, there are other industries where the standard of wages i s such that there i s l i k e l y to be a high motor vehicle/person r a t i o . 44 For example9 the Okanagan Helicopters Ltd. had 110 employees i n the summer of 1957» out of which 109 possessed t h e i r own automobiles and drove them to work. Therefore, i t i s easy to see how th© type of industry permitted can aff e c t the amount of t r a f f i c generated. Furthermore i t reveals th® p o s s i b i l i t y of c o n t r o l l i n g t r a f f i c generation through control of employment densities and types of i n d u s t r i e s . This can be accomplished either by selective elimination of industries with high employ-ment densities or by i n s t i t u t i n g employment densities into zoning by-laws. The problem i s rendered more complex due to the wide d i v e r s i t y of the type of industries that are already i n the area and those the area i s l i k e l y to attract i n the future. At present, the industries range from wood products, s t e e l r o l l i n g m i l l s , and precast concrete, to aviation e l e c t r o n i c s . In the long run, i t might be better to have a d i s p e r s a l of i n d u s t r i a l areas, or perhaps to have 10 areas of 300 acres each spread out i n the Metropolitan Area instead of one North Arm Area with 3?000 acres. Furthermore, t h i s w i l l r e s u l t In the d i s p e r s a l of the peak hour t r a f f i c problem, and may solve many t r a f f i c . bottlenecks. Nevertheless, considered i n i s o l a t i o n , these solu-tions might create new and worse problems. I t i s e s s e n t i a l that the planners present a study of and proper solutions to the Metropolitan t r a f f i c problems so that the City Fathers can act without losing time. Such a study should be continuous and provide f o r administrative coordination between a l l m u n i c i p a l i t i e s 45 i n the absence of a metropolitan government. Greater use of public t r a n s i t instead of private automo-b i l e i s another possible solution to the t r a f f i c problems fore-cast f o r th© North Arm Area. But t h i s requires that the e f f i c i e n c y of public t r a n s i t must be increased by providing cheaper and more frequent services to work centres.' To induce the worker to leave his car at home and take public t r a n s i t to work, he must be able to obtain the same or equal comfort and speed. Under the circumstances, when public t r a n s i t i s operated by private i n t e r e s t s , any proposal which might result i n reduced p r o f i t s i s hard to implement. Nevertheless, the cooperation of the B. C. E l e c t r i c Railway Co. must be sought i n t h i s respeet. As an alternative to t h i s , the employers may be asked to provide free transportation f o r a l l employees. This system of transportation can be operated on s i m i l a r l i n e s to the school buses. Not only must employees be encouraged to use public transport, but also they must be discouraged from using private automobile by the levy of parking fees or other i n d i r e c t methods. With the continued growth of population and the continued r i s e i n r e a l wealth, we can look forward to an ever increasing number of vehicles on our street system. The Metropolitan Area i s already i n an unusually d i f f i c u l t p o s i t i o n because the major c i t y , Vancouver, i s located on a peninsula and can, i n e f f e c t , be approached from only one side. This means that the concentra-t i o n of t r a f f i c and t r a f f i c routes i s twice as great as i n a c i t y 46 which can be approached from a l l sides. For these reasons? the t r a f f i c problem i n the Metropolitan Area i s only beginning, and only bold plans, continually amended, and equally bold pro-grammes of road construction and land use p o l i c i e s can hope to meet t h i s problem. A P P E N D I X I 47 Population Forecast f o r 1971 Assumptionss 1. C i t y of Vancouver (1) The present densities w i l l continue* (2) It w i l l take 25 years f o r a l l the unoccupied r e s i d e n t i a l land to be b u i l t upon. (3) The u t i l i s a t i o n of unoccupied r e s i d e n t i a l land w i l l follow an arithmetic trend. (4) There w i l l not be any major zoning changes u n t i l 1971. (5) The re-development programmes proposed by the C i t y Planning Department w i l l be carried out by 1971. (6) The t r a f f i c d i s t r i c t s 010, O i l , 035? 040, 045, 050» 055? 06o, 066 are not considered f o r further r e s i d e n t i a l development. (7) The Central Business D i s t r i c t i s not considered f o r r e s i d e n t i a l development. (8) 60$ of vacant land w i l l be b u i l t up by 1971* 2. A l l Other Areas i n the Internal Area (1) Population forecasts by the Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board "Population Trends i n the Lower 4$ Mainland Region, 1921*»1971,f A p r i l , 1957*' ©re assumed' to be correct. A density of 3 . 2 persons per dwelling unit i s assumed. For d i s t r i b u t i o n of population into t r a f f i c d i s t r i c t s , i t i s assumed, thats a. The present densities w i l l continue b. The growth w i l l be uniformly spread out i n a l l t r a f f i c d i s t r i c t s depending upon th© a v a i l a -b i l i t y of r e s i d e n t i a l land. In the case of Burnaby, i n addition to above assumptions, the population saturation figures as reflected by municipal sewerage programmes are taken into considera-t i o n . 49 TABLE X Estimate of Dwelling Units f o r 1971 Summary C i t y of Vancouver 1 3 2 , 1 5 6 (Table I D Burnaby 6 3 , 9 0 6 (Table V) Richmond 18,500 (Table VI) Hew Westminster 1 3 , 0 9 4 (Table VII) Coquitlam 14,125 (Table VIII) Port Coquitlam 3 , 3 7 5 (Table VIII) Port Moody 1 ,344 (Table V I I I ) U.E. L» 2 , 6 3 8 (Table VIII) Internal Area 2 4 9 , 1 3 8 Notes Above estimates excepting those f o r the C i t y of Vancouver are based on population estimates made by the Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board i n t h e i r "Population Trends I n the Lower Mainland Region, 1921-1971", A p r i l , 1957* 50 TABLE II Estimate of Dwelling Units f o r th© C i t y of Vancouver i n 1971 Summary Dwelling Units i n 1955 112,635 (Table III) Additional Units Resulting from Redevelopment Programmes by 1971 •»•• 11»553 (Table IV) Additional Dwelling Units from Development of Vacant Land • 7 » 9 6 8 (Table III) . by 1971 T o t a l Dwelling Units by 1971 • 132,156 TABLE I I I Estimate of Dwelling Units by T r a f f i c D i s t r i c t s i n 1971 Tra.Dt. DiUnlts Gross Neighbor- Density Unoccupied P o t e n t i a l D. Units l a c . In. T o t a l 1955 hood Area, 1955 D.U./Aere Land D.Units by B.U.'s by D.U. _ — , Completed by 1971 1971 due 1971 Acres Acres 1981 1971 to Urban _______ ,. . . . Renewal, ,, (1) (2) (3) ( 4 ) (5) ( 6 ) ( 7 ) (8) ( 9 ) 000 11,116 367 30.29 1 6 48 29 U , 1 4 5 - 1 1 , 1 4 5 010 3,638 198 1 8 , 4 0 163 - 3,638 56 3 , 6 9 4 011 2 , 8 1 0 2 4 5 11.25 51 2,810 6 6 1 3 , 4 7 1 012 3,278 510 6 . 4 3 4 4 283 1 7 0 3,448 I87 3,635 013 1,931 306 6.31 65 4 1 0 2 4 6 2,177 - 2,177 020 657 120 5.48 17 93 56 713 1,275 1,988 021 3,391 4 0 9 8.29 4 4 365 219 3,610 3,265 6,875 022 2,009 383 5.25 4 9 257 1 5 4 2,163 - 2,163 023 1,457 330 4 . 4 2 170 7 5 1 4 5 1 1,908 - 1,908 0 2 4 1 , 4 6 0 2 4 2 6.03 75 4 5 2 271 1,731 - 1,731' 025 2,251 4 2 3 5.32 69 367 220 2 , 4 7 1 - 2 , 4 7 1 ' 030 3,949 728 6.29 72 453 272 4,221 125 4,346 031 3,251 580 5.61 96 539 323 3,57<! - 3,574 ©32 4,017 828 4.85 151 732 439 4,456 - 4,456 033 3,165 629 5.03 187 9 4 1 565 3,730 - 3,730 0 3 4 1,478 379 3.90 626 2 , 4 4 1 1,465 2,943 - 2,943 035 131 99.2 1.32 162 131 - 131 0 4 0 1 , 0 4 3 100 .0 10.43 1 4 4 - - 1 , 0 4 3 1 8 6 1,229 0 4 1 4,575 274 16.70 1 0 167 100 4,675 - 4,675 0 4 2 4,745 685 6.93 4 4 305 183 4,928 256 5 , 1 8 4 0 4 3 3 , 5 4 0 489 7.23 35 253 152 3,692 - 3,692 0 4 4 3,301 681 4.84 68 329 197 3,498 - 3»498 045 4 0 26 1.54 1 1 7 - - 4 0 - 4 0 H TABLE I I I (cont'd) Tra.Dr. TIT 051 052 053 054 055 D.Units Gross Neighbor- Density Unoccupied 1955 hood Area, 1955 B.U./Acre Land 20 2,646 2,606 905 420 68 Acres. TIT 9 221 407 231 157 31 A c r e s P o t e n t i a l D. Units D.Units by Completed by 1971 1981 1971 ~~T4T 2.22 11.97 6 , 4 0 3.92 2.68 2,20 6 10 10 125 149 24 120 64 490 399 72 38 294 239 TfT" 20 2,718 2,644 1,199 659 68 Inc* i n . D.U.fs by 1971 due to Urban Renewal 1,034 262 T o t a l D. U. 1971 20 3,752 2,906 1,199 659 68 060 110 57 1.93 11 110 110 061 4,132 304 13.59 12 163 98 4,230 486 4,716 062 2,404 691 3.48 24 84 5© 2,454 142 2,596 063 2,176 596 3.65 69 252 151 2,327 2,327 064 2,386 654 3.65 57 208 125 2,511 - 2,511 065 1,852 339 5,46 0.67 14 76 46 1,898 — 1,898 066 67 100 45 67 - 67 070 071 072 073 074 2,954 2,843 2,957 1,352 505 693 585 553 308 218 4.26 4.86 5.35 4.39 2.32 36 28 45 82 121 153 136 241 360 281 92 82 145 216 169 3,046 2,925 3,102 1,568 674 3,046 2,925 3,102 1,568 674 080 ©81 082 6,310 5,029 3,660 607 651 777 10.40 7.73 4.71 35 6 139 364 46 655 218 28 393 6,528 3,596 5,057 22 4,053 10,124 5,079 4,053 Total 112,635 13,278 7,968 120,603 11,553 132,156 Sources C o l , 2, Col. 3, and C o l , 5s C i t y Planning Department, C i t y of Vancouver. Col. 8s Table I? i n t h i s Appendix Notes See assumptions l i s t e d on pp. 44-45, Appendix I . 53 TABLE IV Estimate of Population Change due to Urban Renewal Programmes by 1971 City of Vancouver Traffic Dt. Population Dwelling Units a, . Increase Increase 010 180 56 011 2115 661 012 600 187 020 4080 1275 021 10415 3265 030 400 125 040 595 186 042 820 256 051 3310 1034 052 840 262 061 1560 486 062 454 142 080 11510 3596 081 70 22 11,553 Sources Discussions with the staff of t h e City Planning Depart-ment, City of Vancouver, May 3, 1957. 54 TABLE V Estimate of Dwelling Units i n 1971 D i s t r i c t M u n i c i p a l i t y of Burnaby Population i n 1971 204,500 Estimated number of D.U. i n 1971 (assuming 3-2 persons/d.u.) 63,906 T r a f f i c P l a t . . D.U. i n 1971 14 4,331 15 3,457 16 4,258 17 4,512 26 5,128 27 10,719 28 5,167 29 7,151 36 5,451 37 5,598 38 8,134 63,906 Eot&i The estimate i s based on the a v a i l a b i l i t y o f unoccupied r e s i d e n t i a l land and saturation population as r e f l e c t e d i n the estimate of sewerage programmes u n t i l 1963 by Planning Department, D i s t r i c t Municipality of Burnaby. 55 TABLE VI Estimate of Dwelling Units i n 1971 D i s t r i c t M unicipality of Richmond Estimated population i n 1971 . . . . . 59»200 Estimated dwelling units i n 1971 (assuming 3*2 persons/ T r a f f i c D l s t . Mb. of D. Units i n 1971 200 700 210 2700 211 3300 212 4100 213 7 0 0 2 1 4 7000 18500 Notes The estimate i s proportional to the area of r e s i d e n t i a l land i n these t r a f f i c d i s t r i c t s . For areas of residen-t i a l land, see " A study of Highway Planning for the Metropolitan Area of the Lower Mainland of B . C . " by the Technical Committee on Metropolitan Highway Planning, C i t y Planning Department, Vancouver, October 1956, p.45. 56 TABLE ¥ 1 1 Estimate of Dwelling Units i n 1971 • C i t y of New Westminster Population .... 41,900 Dwelling Units (3.2 persons/d.u.) , 13,094 T r a f f i c Dt. D. Units i n 1971 9© 4,000 91 5,OGO 92 2*,094 93 94 2,000 13,094 Sources Discussions with the C i t y Planning Department, C i t y ©f Vancouver, May 3 , 1957* 57 TABLE ¥111 Estimate of Dwelling Units by 1971 Port Coquitlam« Coquitlam. Port Moody and University Endowment Lands Population Dwelling i n 1971 Units Coquitlam (287 s 281, 282) 45,200 14,125 Port Coquitlam (282) 10,800 3,375 Port Moody (270) 4,300 1,344 U.E.L. (083, 075) 8,600 2,638 21,482 Note: 1. Density i s assumed at 3.2 persons/d.u. 2. Dwelling Unit figures are d i r e c t l y deduced from population figures by applying the assumed density. A P P E N EVALUATION OF THE THIS D I X I I . METHODOLOGY USED IN STUDY 58 Evaluation of the Methodology Used i n This Study The following few pages i n t h i s Appendix are rather more of a confession than an evaluation of the methodology. They attempt to describe and explain the methods used i n t h i s study, which to a large extent were dictated by the l i m i t a t i o n s set by time, the nature and type of data available, and the cost involved i n processing such data. The f i r s t step i n the analysis of present t r a f f i c i n r e l a t i o n to the North Arm Area, was to divide the Internal Area into zones of concentric rings and to designate these by t h e i r distance to the North Arm. These distances are purely p h y s i c a l . Depending upon the a v a i l a b i l i t y of transportation f a c i l i t i e s , distances may not have the same Importance i n every t r a f f i c d i s t r i c t . Better highway f a c i l i t i e s , r e s u l t i n g i n shorter t r a v e l time, reduce the weight attached to greater distances. For future transportation planning studies, It would be better to measure distance by t r a v e l time. However, l i m i t a t i o n s of time and the a v a i l a b i l i t y of data did not permit the adoption of the t r a v e l time method. In adopting the physical distances to work places, no data on employment or the l o c a t i o n of plants In the North Arm Area were available. Therefore, a center was chosen f o r the Worth Arm $&m (J&ap 2) and i t was. assujaad) fer purposes of analysis., that this was the work eeater fox a l l workers* i s s©s® cases this Slight be contrary to f a c t s f e.g. i f -a person driving Xros 8* ell© some i s working ia the eastern outskirts of th© forth Mm Ares, .he w i l l be actually in the €«*8 mil© seas. Therefore s i n future studies i t would he better to collect ©mployaent data aad eaml3r.se th© traffic ©n the basis ©f actual driving time to plant 02? phys leal distance to plant. A l l the 'datay present -(1955) and astiaated (1971)? i s available by traffic districts* ©ffea, a traffle district was i n two zones <M©p 2)j l * e * , the fe©on$s»ry of tho gone passed through the t r a f f i c district* i n such © case, the ©urreat data and the estimates ware d i s t r i b u t e d into ta^ soaos ©a. the basis of tha area of tho traffic d i s t r i c t i n each sen©* I t i s assumed la this sethod that within a t r a f f i c d i s t r i c t thara i s aalferffllty of development* t h i s sight set be true la som cases* particularly l a outlying arans* The data regarding antejsoblie r e g i s t r a t i o n was. l a the. o n c o s t aaeoisplled forsu It %r&s part of a sample survey ©on-ducted by the planning tepartaeat of tho Olty of f onceover i a 1$$$* Every eneipie had a oaaed on which tho traffle d i s t r i c t where the euto»feile \tm registered noted* For the pur-poses of this study* the dfeta from these sample e&rde were transferred ©a to IM cards to' facilitate easy tabulation.* A l l tabulation was done at the Tabulating Department of the Salver-s l t y of B r i t i s h Columbia. J f t e v transferring this information 6 0 to IBM cards and checking f o r doubles, ©3 doubles were found. These cards were simply rejected. I t was not possible to make another check from survey cards to IBM cards. However, i t would be better i n future studies to make such a cheek i f possible. For purposes of projection of automobile r e g i s t r a t i o n i n the Internal Area by 1971, i t was assumed that I t would follow the same trend as has been experienced by the State of Washington from 1920 - 1950. In t h i s i t i s assumed that auto-mobile r e g i s t r a t i o n w i l l grow proportionately to population growth. Admittedly, economic factors such as higher incomes might play a more prominent r o l e . However, the planners i n the C i t y Planning Department of the C i t y of Vancouver agree that the above assumption i s quite acceptable. One of the problems encountered i n t h i s study was that none of the municipalities i n the Metropolitan Area except the C i t y of Vancouverv could provide data on present d i s t r i b u t i o n population or dwelling units within t h e i r area. I t i s surprising that the same state of a f f a i r s applies to estimates of population by 1971. Furthermore,.no estimates of the d i s t r i b u t i o n of population are available e i t h e r . Therefore, i n some cases, the writer has distr i b u t e d the expected Increase i n t o t a l popula-t i o n i n each municipality to the t r a f f i c d i s t r i c t s purely on * A double i s a second card for the same sample and could arise due to mistakes i n reading the survey data while trans-f e r r i n g data to IBM cards. 61 the basis of the area of t r a f f i c d i s t r i c t s * For future studies i t would be worth while to d i s t r i b u t e the increases of popula-t i o n on the basis of, at l e a s t , the a v a i l a b i l i t y of buiidable land. The possible Increase i n automobile usage i t s e l f i s not considered i n th© estimates. It i s assumed that the present usage factor w i l l not change by 1971* However, a thorough study of the driving habits of the people i s necessary f o r future studies of transportation planning* In a study of t h i s nature, which was completed i n a short time by a student carrying a f u l l academic load, many assumptions must be made i n order to complete the study within a reasonable time. As i n any other study Involving a number of municipalities without a common government, there were many d i f f i c u l t i e s i n the c o l l e c t i o n of data. In addition, there i s always the l i m i t a t i o n of time. However, i t was Imperative to make the above assumptions, and i t Is suggested that future studies consider an improvement of the techniques of analysis and p r e d i c t i o n and refinement of data i f time and cost permit. 62 REFERENCES 1 . R . B. M i t c h e l l and C. Rapkln. Urban T r a f f i c . New York, Columbia University Press, 19i?4, p. v. 2. Joint Committee of American Association of State Highway O f f i c i a l s , T r a f f i c Engineering Functions and Adminis- t r a t i o n , Public Administration Service, Chicago, 1949, p. 1 3. Ibid. 4. R. £• Schmidt and 1, E. Campbell. Highway T r a f f i c Estimation. Saugatuck, Conn., Eno Foundation, 1956, p. 1. 5. K. K. Leipman. The Journey to Work. London, Kegan Paul, French, Trubner and Co. Ltd., 1943, p. 1. 6. The Technical Committee on Metropolitan Highway Planning, A Study of Highway Planning f o r the Metropolitan Area of the Lower Mainland of B.C.. C i t y Planning Department, Vancouver, October, 1956, Part I, p. 1. 7. Ibid., p. 2. 8. G. K. Z l p f , "The P-»Po/D Hypothesis," American S o c i o l o g i c a l Review, 11:6 (12/46), pp. 677^857 9» Joint Committee of American Association of State Highway O f f i c i a l s , T r a f f i c Engineering Functions and Administra-t i o n , Public Administration Service, Chicago, 1949, p.o. 10. For further elaboration of the ear l y concepts, sees H.C.Carey, P r i n c i p l e s of S o c i a l Science. Philadelphia, Pa., J. B. Llppinoott & Co. 11. J . Q. Stewart, "Demographic Gravitations Evidence and Ap p l i -cation," Sociometry* l l s l - 2 (2-5/48), pp. 31*58. 12. J . D. Car r o l , J r . , " S p a t i a l Interaction and Urban Metropoli-tan Description," T r a f f i c Quarterly, 9:2 (4/55), pp. 149-61. 13. G.A.P. Carrothers, "A H i s t o r i c a l Review of the Gravity and Pot e n t i a l Concepts of Human Interaction," Journal of the American I n s t i t u t e of Plannersi V o l . XXII, No. 2, p. 99. 63 1 4 . I . R. Anderson, "Intermetropolitan Migrations A Compari-son of Hypotheses of Zipf and S'touffer," American S o c i o l o g i c a l Review. 20s3 ( 6 / 5 5 ) , pp. 2 8 7 - 9 1 . 15. J . D. Carr o l , J r . , "The Relation of Homes to Work Places and the Sp a t i a l Pattern, of C i t i e s , " S o c i a l Forces. V o l . 30, No. 3, 1952. 1 6 . R. 1. Schmidt and M. E. Campbell, Highway T r a f f i c Estima-t i o n . Saugatuek, Eno Foundatlon," 1 9 % , p»•"~i%7" 1 7 . Resort on the Detroit Metropolitan Area T r a f f i c .Study. Part I I , Speaker-lines & Thomas Inc., Lansing, Mich., March 1956 . 1 8 . J.W. Wilson, Executive Director, Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board of B. C , i n a l e t t e r to the author, dated l a r c h 5, 1957-1 9 . R. E . Schmidt and M. B. Campbell, Highway T r a f f i c Estimation. Saugatuek, Eno Foundation, October 1 9 5 6 , p. 9 5 . 2 0 . Ibid., pp* 9 4 - 9 6 . 2 1 . Ibid., p. 72. 2 2 . Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board, Population Trends ' In the Lower Mainland Region. 1 9 2 1 - 7 1 , L.H.R. Planning Board, Vancouver, A p r i l 1957* 23. Ibid. 24. Source f o r areas of t r a f f i c d i s t r i c t s — The Technical Planning Committee on Metropolitan Highway Planning, A Study ofHighway Planning f o r the Metropolitan Area of the Lower Mainland of B. C..«. C i t y Planning Depart-raent, Vancouver, October 1956", Part I, p., 2 5 . Discussions with the s t a f f of the C i t y Planning Department? Vancouver, May 1957* 64 BIBLIOGRAPHY Anderson, T. R., " Intense t r o p o l l t an Migrations Comparison of Hypotheses of Z i p f and Stouffer," American S o c i o l o g i c a l Review, 20s3 (6/55), pp. 287-91. Carey, H. C , P r i n c i p l e s of S o c i a l Science, Philadelphia, Pa., J . B. Lippincott & Co., 1952. C a r r o l , J . D., J r . , " S p a t i a l Interaction and Urban Metropolitan Description," T r a f f i c Quarterly. 9*2 (4/55), pp. 149-61. C a r r o l , J , D * J r . , "The Relation of Homes to Work Places and the S p a t i a l Pattern of C i t i e s , " S o c i a l Forces, V o l . 30, No... 3, 1952. Carrothers, G.A.P., "A H i s t o r i c a l Review of the Gravity and , P o t e n t i a l Concepts of Human Interaction," Journal of the American Institute of Planners, V o l . XXII, Wo. 2, p. 99. Fratar, T. J . , "Vehicular T r i p D i s t r i b u t i o n by Successive Approximation, 4' T r a f f i c Quarterly. Jan. 1954. Gerlough, D. L., Use of Poisson D i s t r i b u t i o n i n Highway T r a f f i c Saugatuck, Conn., Eno Foundation, 1955. ' Greenshields, B.D. and Weida, F. M., S t a t i s t i c s with Applica-tions to Highway T r a f f i c Analyses, Saugatuck, Conn., Eno Foundation, 1952. Institute f o r Research i n S o c i a l Science, University of North Carolina, I n d u s t r i a l Areas Study, Chapel H i l l , North Car,, 1952. Joint Committee of American Association of State Highway T r a f f i c O f f i c i a l s , T r a f f i c Engineering Function and Administration, Public Administration Service, Chicago, 1949. Leipman, K.K., The Journey to Work, London, Kegan Paul, Trench, Trubner and Co. Ltd., 1943, Lower Mainland Regional Planning Board, Population Trends i n the Lower Mainland Region 1921-71, L.M.R. Planning Board, Vancouver, A p r i l 1957. 65 M i t c h e l l , R. B. and Rapkln, C , Urban T r a f f i c , New York, Columbia University Press, 1954. Report on the Detroit Metropolitan Area T r a f f i c Study. Part I I , Speaker-Bines & Thomas Inc., Lansing, Mich., March 1956. Row, A.R., wAn Approach to G-D Data Analysis," T r a f f i c Quarterly, Jan. 1955. Schmidt, R. E. and Campbell, M. E., Highway T r a f f i c Estimation, Sangatuck, Conn., Eno Foundation, 1956. Stewart, J . Q., "Demographic Gravitation J Evidence and Applica-t i o n , " Sociometry, 11:1-2 (2-5/48). The Technical Committee on Metropolitan Highway Planning, A Study of Highway Planning for the Metropolitan Area of the Lower Mainland of B.C.,, C i t y Planning Department, Vancouver, October 1956, Part I. The Technical Committee f o r Metropolitan Highway Planning, Submission to the Royal Commission on Canada's Economic Prospects, C i t y Planning Department, Vancouver, November 1955. Z i p f , G.K., "The P1P2/D Hypothesis," American S o c i o l o g i c a l Review, 11:6 (12/46), pp. 677-86.
Thesis/Dissertation
eng
Planning
Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library
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Traffic generation in the north arm industrial area
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