Applied Science, Faculty of
Community and Regional Planning (SCARP), School of
DSpace
UBCV
Johnston, Kevin James
Doctor of Philosophy - PhD
University of British Columbia
This thesis is concerned with the estimation of the cost involved in supporting minimum housing standards under alternative forms of government intervention. No attempt is made to rationalize what minimum housing standards should be. The intent is to highlight what the relative costs would be to support alternative housing standards, utilizing potentially alternative policy approaches. To rationalize the numerous policy/program alternatives available to governments, attention is focused on six policy alternatives that reflect varying degrees of "leakage" of the provided subsidy to the consumption of non-housing goods and services. These alternatives cover the continuum from pure cash (income) subsidies, wherein up to a 100% "leakage" to the consumption of non-housing goods and services may occur, to direct product intervention, wherein the recipients may be required to reduce the consumption of non-housing goods and services in order to improve their housing standards. The six options are classified by type either as a "cash" subsidy (where the use of the subsidy is not constrained) or a "direct product" subsidy (where the subsidy is used directly for the subsidization of capital and/or operating costs). Under the "cash" subsidy approaches two benchmark options are considered: 1. an "income" policy that involves the subsidization of incomes such that the recipients are free to choose consumption levels. This policy corresponds to pure income redistribution. 2. a "constrained cash" or "in kind" policy that involves the subsidization of incomes at a level dependent on either the level of housing consumption or expenditure on housing consumption. Such a policy covers programs comparable to rent certificates and general housing allowances. The options considered as "direct product" approaches are more arbitrary in nature, reflecting alternative benchmarks: 1. a "direct constrained" policy wherein recipients are forced to reduce their consumption of other goods and services to offset the required increase in expenditure on housing. This policy form is taken as the lower benchmark for the policy continuum, reflecting the potential impact of zoning and occupancy regulat ions. 2. a "direct quantity" policy wherein recipients are compensated for the cost of the additional quantity of housing consumed only. 3. a "direct expenditure" policy wherein recipients are subsidized in the amount of the total increase in expenditure on housing incurred. 4. a "direct price" policy wherein the subsidy is provided to buy down the unit price of housing. Such a policy covers mortgage market intervention and compensated rent control programs. The computation of these costs, for selected Canadian Metropolitan Areas, (CMAs), is undertaken using a simulation model based on a long run (ten year) regional housing market model developed by the Urban Institute, Washington DC, during the early 1970's. This model traces the interaction inherent in the supply and demand of housing in each of many separate, but highly inter-dependent housing submarkets. For this study the demand side of the model has been respecified to allow the incorporation of a tenure option, the use of after tax incomes and the direct estimation of the demand functions. The essence of the modified model is a microeconomic perspective on households and owners contracting for housing at prices and quantities determined in several submarkets. A selected CMA is represented in the form of several residential zones that reflect variations in the housing stock, income levels and distance from the Central Business District. On the demand side, model households are classified into one of ten groupings (reflecting age, family status and income earners) each having different preference schedules. These preference schedules are based on translog utility functions which compare housing consumption, after-tax income, leisure time and neighbourhood quality. On the supply side, a housing unit is characterized by the quantity of "housing services" (combination of size and quality) and the price per unit of service. Several different quality levels are distinguished to correspond to the many alternative quality submarkets in an actual housing market. Profit maximizing behaviour by the owners is assumed to imply linear supply curves (of varying slope for each type of housing unit) as an approximation of the price-quantity relations that govern the behaviour of owners over a ten year period. An unlimited volume of new construction is allowed at fixed unit prices, and in any size that provides a quantity of services greater than a defined minimum. The major inputs to the model are a CMA's set of supply and demand parameters, the 1971 decade-end demand profile and the 1961 decade-start market state. A model solution is an estimate of the market conditions at decade-end. The predicted market conditions are based on an assignment procedure which sets unit prices such that no household has incentives to relocate and owners have no incentive to provide an alternative quantity of "housing services". While the model is conceptually simple and assumes convenient forms for the household preferences and dwelling supply curves, it captures many aspects of housing markets important in distinguishing the impact of alternative subsidy policies. Policy alternatives may be introduced by simply adjusting the demand and/or supply functions to allow straightforward simulations of the necessary subsidy costs under alternative policy options. Eight CMAs were selected for the intervention cost study, reflecting a distribution with regard to geographical location, population and income growth during the 1961-71 decade. In implementing the model for a CMA the number of decade-end model households and dwellings is set at 100, reflecting a ratio of actual dwellings to model dwellings ranging from 287 to 3455 for the selected CMAs while the model parameters have been estimated alternatively from Census data or the 1974 Survey of Housing Units data. Certain parameters relating to neighbourhood externalities and the supply functions must be estimated by comparing model solutions with actual decadal performance. The computed costs of intervention derived from the simulations show a significant variation firstly in terms of the alternative forms of policy and secondly by CMA, reflecting the relative states of the existing housing stock. The most generous form of government support lies with an "income" policy wherein households are provided with sufficient income to consume the minimum quantity of housing by choice. The other end of the scale is represented by a "direct constrained" policy whereby households are forced to increase their housing standards, but the compensation level is only sufficient for them to achieve their prior level of overall satisfaction. The simulated difference in cost between these two alternatives is in the range of a factor of 10. That is, it could cost the government up to ten times more per annum to support housing standards via an "income" policy. The margin between the costs associated with the "income" policy and other alternative "direct product" oriented modes is in the range of a factor of 4 to 5. The results suggest that a general "direct product" oriented policy, tied directly to the change in the quantity of housing consumed (supplied) will cost less than one-third of the amount associated with a general "cash" policy. At present costs this margin corresponds to an additional amount in the region of six billion dollars per annum for Canada.
QUANTIFICATION OF THE COST Of ALTERNATIVE FORMS Of HOUSING MARKET INTERVENTION in CANADA by KEVIN JAMES JOHNSTON B.Arch.,The University of Auckland, 1973 M.Arch.,The University of Auckland, 1976 B.Comm.,The University of Auckland, 1976 A THESIS SUBMITTED in PARTIAL FULFILMENT of THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE of DOCTOR of PHILOSOPHY in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES (Urban Land Economics, Economics @ Community and Social Planning) We accept t h i s thesis as conforming to the required standard The University of B r i t i s h Columbia 1 982 (c) Kevin James Johnston, 1982 In presenting t h i s thesis i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the Library s h a l l make i t f r e e l y available for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of t h i s thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the head of my department or by his or her representatives. I t i s understood that copying or publication of t h i s thesis for f i n a n c i a l gain s h a l l not be allowed without my written permission. Department o The University of B r i t i s h Columbia 1956 Main Mall Vancouver, Canada V6T 1Y3 Date 0<9c Ho /<?8Z, DE-6 (3/81) i i ABSTRACT This thesis is concerned with the estimation of the cost involved in supporting minimum housing standards under alternative forms of government intervention. No attempt i s made to ra t i o n a l i z e what minimum housing standards should be. The intent i s to highlight what the r e l a t i v e costs would be to support alternative housing standards, u t i l i z i n g p o t e n t i a l l y alternative policy approaches. To r a t i o n a l i z e the numerous policy/program alte r n a t i v e s available to governments, attention i s focused on six policy alternatives that r e f l e c t varying degrees of "leakage" of the provided subsidy to the consumption of non-housing goods and services. These alternatives cover the continuum from pure cash (income) subsidies, wherein up to a 100% "leakage" to the consumption of non-housing goods and services may occur, to dire c t product intervention, wherein the recipients may be required to reduce the consumption of non-housing goods and services in order to improve their housing standards. The six options are c l a s s i f i e d by type either as a "cash" subsidy (where the use of the subsidy i s not constrained) or a "direct product" subsidy (where the subsidy is used d i r e c t l y for the subsidization of c a p i t a l and/or operating costs). Under the "cash" subsidy approaches two benchmark options are considered: 1. an "income" policy that involves the subsidization of incomes such that the recipients are free to choose consumption l e v e l s . This policy corresponds to pure income r e d i s t r i b u t i o n . i i i 2. a "constrained cash" or "in kind" p o l i c y that involves the subsidization of incomes at a l e v e l dependent on either the l e v e l of housing consumption or expenditure on housing consumption. Such a policy covers programs comparable to rent c e r t i f i c a t e s and general housing allowances. The options considered as "direct product" approaches are more arbi t r a r y in nature, r e f l e c t i n g alternative benchmarks: 1. a "direct constrained" policy wherein recipients are forced to reduce their consumption of other goods and services to offset the required increase in expenditure on housing. This policy form is taken as the lower benchmark for the policy continuum, r e f l e c t i n g the potential impact of zoning and occupancy regulat ions. 2. a "direct quantity" policy wherein recipients are compensated for the cost of the additional quantity of housing consumed only. 3. a "direct expenditure" policy wherein recipients are subsidized in the amount of the t o t a l increase in expenditure on housing incurred. 4. a "direct p r i c e " policy wherein the subsidy is provided to buy down the unit price of housing. Such a policy covers mortgage market intervention and compensated rent control programs. The computation of these costs, for selected Canadian Metropolitan Areas, (CMAs), i s undertaken using a simulation model based on a long run (ten year) regional housing market model developed by the Urban I n s t i t u t e , Washington DC, during the early 1970's. This model traces the interaction inherent in the supply and demand of housing in each of many separate, but highly inter-dependent housing submarkets. For t h i s study the demand side of the model has been respe c i f i e d to allow the incorporation of a tenure option, the use of after tax incomes and the dir e c t estimation of the demand functions. The essence of the modified model is a microeconomic perspective on households and owners contracting for housing at prices and quantities determined in several submarkets. A selected CMA i s represented in the form of several r e s i d e n t i a l iv zones that r e f l e c t variations in the housing stock, income levels and distance from the Central Business D i s t r i c t . On the demand side, model households are c l a s s i f i e d into one of ten groupings ( r e f l e c t i n g age, family status and income earners) each having d i f f e r e n t preference schedules. These preference schedules are based on translog u t i l i t y functions which compare housing consumption, after-tax income, l e i s u r e time and neighbourhood q u a l i t y . On the supply side, a housing unit i s characterized by the quantity of "housing services" (combination of size and quality) and the price per unit of service. Several d i f f e r e n t quality lev e l s are distinguished to correspond to the many alternative qu a l i t y submarkets in an actual housing market. P r o f i t maximizing behaviour by the owners is assumed to imply linear supply curves (of varying slope for each type of housing unit) as an approximation of the price-quantity relations that govern the behaviour of owners over a ten year period. An unlimited volume of new construction i s allowed at fixed unit prices, and in any size that provides a quantity of services greater than a defined minimum. The major inputs to the model are a CMA's set of supply and demand parameters, the 1971 decade-end demand p r o f i l e and the 1961 decade-start market state. A model solution i s an estimate of the market conditions at decade-end. The predicted market conditions are based on an assignment procedure which sets unit prices such that no household has incentives to relocate and owners have no incentive to provide an alternative quantity of "housing services". While the model is conceptually simple and assumes V convenient forms for the household preferences and dwelling supply curves, i t captures many aspects of housing markets important in distinguishing the impact of alternative subsidy p o l i c i e s . Policy alternatives may be introduced by simply adjusting the demand and/or supply functions to allow straightforward simulations of the necessary subsidy costs under alternative policy options. Eight CMAs were selected for the intervention cost study, r e f l e c t i n g a d i s t r i b u t i o n with regard to geographical location, population and income growth during the 1961-71 decade. In implementing the model for a CMA the number of decade-end model households and dwellings i s set at 100, r e f l e c t i n g a r a t i o of actual dwellings to model dwellings ranging from 287 to 3455 for the selected CMAs while the model parameters have been estimated a l t e r n a t i v e l y from Census data or the 1974 Survey of Housing Units data. Certain parameters r e l a t i n g to neighbourhood e x t e r n a l i t i e s and the supply functions must be estimated by comparing model solutions with actual decadal performance. The computed costs of intervention derived from the simulations show a s i g n i f i c a n t v a r i a t i o n f i r s t l y in terms of the alternative forms of policy and secondly by CMA, r e f l e c t i n g the re l a t i v e states of the existing housing stock. The most generous form of government support l i e s with an "income" policy wherein households are provided with s u f f i c i e n t income to consume the minimum quantity of housing by choice. The other end of the scale i s represented by a "direct constrained" policy whereby households are forced to increase their housing standards, but the compensation level i s only s u f f i c i e n t for them to achieve their prior l e v e l of overall s a t i s f a c t i o n . v i The simulated d i f f e r e n c e i n c o s t between these two a l t e r n a t i v e s i s i n the range of a f a c t o r of 10. That i s , i t c o u l d cost the government up to ten times more per annum to support housing standards v i a an "income" p o l i c y . The margin between the c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d with the "income" p o l i c y and other a l t e r n a t i v e " d i r e c t product" o r i e n t e d modes i s i n the range of a f a c t o r of 4 t o 5. The r e s u l t s suggest that a general " d i r e c t product" o r i e n t e d p o l i c y , t i e d d i r e c t l y to the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed ( s u p p l i e d ) w i l l c o s t l e s s than o n e - t h i r d of the amount a s s o c i a t e d with a general "cash" p o l i c y . At present c o s t s t h i s margin corresponds to an a d d i t i o n a l amount i n the re g i o n of s i x b i l l i o n d o l l a r s per annum f o r Canada. v i i INDEX page CHAPTER 01: INTRODUCTION 1 1 .1 Introduction 4 1 . 2 Overview 6 1 .3 Conclusions 11 CHAPTER 02: POLICY ALTERNATIVES in SUPPORTING HOUSING CONSUMPTION 13 2.1 Housing Market Intervention 16 2.2 Generalized Forms of Intervention Policy 20 CHAPTER 03: MODELING POLICY ALTERNATIVES 30 3.1 The Urban Institute's Model .... 31 3.2 An Alternative Version of the Model 36 CHAPTER 04: The DEMAND SYSTEM 38 4.1 Derivation of the Expenditure Share 40 4.2 Price E l a s t i c i t y 45 4.3 Income E l a s t i c i t y 49 4.4 Estimating the Expenditure Share Functions 52 4.5 Demand E l a s t i c i t i e s 66 CHAPTER 05: The SUPPLY SYSTEM 71 5.1 Alternative Theoretical Supply Systems 75 5.2 Supply System 79 v i i i INDEX (continued) page CHAPTER 06: INITIALIZING the MODEL 82 6.1 Selecting the CMAs 83 6.2 "Model" Data Generation 86 6.21 Neighbourhood Zones 87 6.22 "Model" Households 90 6.23 "Model" Dwellings 93 6.24 New Construction Parameters 101 6.3 Implementation 104 6.31 Demand Function Implementation 104 6.32 Cali b r a t i n g for E x t e r n a l i t i e s 108 6.33 Supply Function C a l i b r a t i o n 110 6.34 Base Simulation Solutions 112 CHAPTER 07: POLICY SIMULATIONS and ANALYSIS .122 7.1 Performance Measures 124 7.2 Implementation of the P o l i c i e s 126 7.3 Simulation Results 130 7.31 Performance of the Individual CMAs 133 7.4 Summary Results 145 7.5 A Comparison of the Policy Options 148 7.6 The Dollar Effect 155 CHAPTER 08: REVIEW and CONCLUSIONS 157 REFERENCES 165 ix INDEX (continued) page TABLES 01: Translog Input Variable S t a t i s t i c s [Vancouver] 55 02: Direct Translog-Expenditure Share [Vancouver] [ a l l income levels] 59 03: Direct Translog-Expenditure Share [Vancouver] [below mean income] 60 04: Direct Translog-Expenditure Share [Vancouver] [above mean income] 61 05: Direct Translog-Expenditure Share [Vancouver] [quartile 01 ] 62 06: Direct Translog-Expenditure Share [Vancouver] [quartile 02] 63 07: Direct Translog-Expenditure Share [Vancouver] [quartile 03] 64 08: Direct Translog-Expenditure Share [Vancouver] [quartile 04] 65 09: Income E l a s t i c i t i e s [Vancouver] 67 10: C r i t i c a l Values for Chi-Square:" Degrees of Freedom .. 68 11: Test of Unity Income E l a s t i c i t y [Vancouver] [Log Likelihood S t a t i s t i c s ] 69 12: Price E l a s t i c i t i e s [Vancouver] 70 13: Selected S t a t i s t i c s for Canadian CMAs 84 14: D i s t r i b u t i o n of Census Tracks by Zone 90 15: D i s t r i b u t i o n of Households by TYPE 91 16: Gross and Net Incomes by TYPE and CMA [1971 Tenured "Model" Representations] . 92 17: Mean Equity Holdings by CMA and TYPE 93 18: 1971 Expenditure/Value Ratio Estimates 98 19: 1971 D i s t r i b u t i o n of Dwellings 99 20: 1961 Expenditure/Value Ratio Estimates 100 21: 1961 Di s t r i b u t i o n of Dwellings 100 22: Construction Parameters 103 23: Externality Parameter Estimates 109 24: Derived BETA Parameters 111 X INDEX (continued) page TABLES (continued) 25: Average Monthly Subsidy and Earmarking Coef f i c i e n t s [Calgary] ..133 26: Average Monthly Subsidy and Earmarking Coef f i c i e n t s [Kitchener] 135 27: Average Monthly Subsidy and Earmarking Coef f i c i e n t s [Quebec City] 1 37 28: Average Monthly Subsidy and Earmarking Co e f f i c i e n t s [St. John's] 138 29: Average Monthly Subsidy and Earmarking C o e f f i c i e n t s [Saskatoon] 139 30: Average Monthly Subsidy and Earmarking Co e f f i c i e n t s [Sudbury] 140 31: Average Monthly Subsidy and Earmarking Coef f i c i e n t s [Vancouver] 142 32: Average Monthly Subsidy and Earmarking Co e f f i c i e n t s [Winnipeg] 143 33: Percentage of "Income" Policy Option Values [Weighted Average for the Eight CMAs] ..146 34: Percent Loss of Subsidy to Other Goods and Services [Average for A l l CMAs] 147 xi INDEX (continued) page FIGURES 01: Intervention Policy Forms 18 02: Alternative Forms of "Housing" Consumption Subsidies . 21 03:' Consumption Level Changes Under Alternative P o l i c i e s 29 04: Household TYPE Groups 38 05: Typical Supply Curves 80 06: Base Case Price-Quantity Curves [Calgary] 114 07: Base Case Price-Quantity Curves [Kitchener] 115 08: Base Case Price-Quantity Curves [Quebec City] 116 09: Base Case Price-Quantity Curves [St. John's] 117 10: Base Case Price-Quantity Curves [Saskatoon] 118 11: Base Case Price-Quantity Curves [Sudbury] 119 12: Base Case Price-Quantity Curves [Vancouver] 120 13: Base Case Price-Quantity Curves [Winnipeg] 121 xi i INDEX (continued) page APPENDIX SECTION A1 : The ORIGINAL HOUSING MARKET MODEL 174 A1.1 ORIGINAL MODEL: Data F i l e s 177 A1.11 Raw Data F i l e s 177 A1 .1 2 Generated Data F i l e s 188 A1.2 ORIGINAL MODEL: An a l y t i c a l Calculations 190 A1.21 D i s t r i b u t i o n of New Construction Prices 190 A1.3 ORIGINAL MODEL: Regression Analysis 196 A1.31 HEDONIC price regressions 196 A1.311 1961 HEDONIC regressions 196 A1.312 1971 HEDONIC regressions 200 A1.32 "ALPHA" Parameter 216 A1.4 ORIGINAL MODEL: Computerised Manipulations 217 A1.41 Delineation of zones: Clustering 217 A1.411 Outline 217 A1 .412 Clustering 219 Al.413 Zonal a l l o c a t i o n s : "ZONE.FORT" 220 A1.414 Program outline 225 A1.415 Computations 226 A1.42 New Construction and Zonal C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s : "CZONE.FORT" 230 A1.421 General outline 231 A1.422 Input and I n i t i a l i z a t i o n 231 A1.423 Zone of New Construction 232 A1.424 D i s t r i b u t i o n of "model" dwellings 235 A1.425 Minimum Quantity 235 A 1.43 "Model" Households: "HH1 .FORT" 237 A1.431 General outline 238 A1 .432 Input 239 A1.433 Computation of Income and Population 239 A1.434 Number of "Model" Households 241 A1.435 "Model" Households 244 A1.44 1961 D i s t r i b u t i o n of Housing Services: "D61.FORT" 248 A1.441 General outline 250 A1.442 Input and I n i t i a l i z a t i o n 250 A1.443 "1961" Quantity of Housing Services 251 A1.444 Quantity ADJUSTORs 256 A1.445 Number of "Model" Dwellings 257 A1.446 "Model" Dwellings 259 xi i i INDEX (continued) page A1.45 Calibr a t i o n by Simulation Data: "D71.FORT" 263 A1.451 General outline 264 A1.452 Input Data 265 A1.453 1971 "Model" Dwellings 268 A1.454 Hedonic Price Indices 273 A1.455 Calibration Data 273 A1.456 Minimum Quantity of New Services 278 A1.5 ORIGINAL MODEL: Solution Algorithm: "SIMO1.FORT" ...281 A1.51 General outline ...283 A1.52 I n i t i a l i z a t i o n and Input 284 A1.53 I n i t i a l Calculations 293 A1.531 Monthly "permanent" income 293 A1.532 Ordering the "Model" Households 294 A1.533 I n i t i a l i z e "Relative" Wealth Externality 294 A1.54 Price-Quantity Intercepts 295 A1.541 Quantity and P a r t i a l U t i l i t y : New Services 296 A1.542 Quantity, Price and P a r t i a l U t i l i t y : Existing Services 296 A1.55 Parameter Iteration Loop 300 A1.56 Solution Algorithm Loop 300 A1.561 Relative wealth externality 301 A1.562 Household's ordered dwelling stacks ..303 A1.563 "Allocation" Algorithm 305 A1.564 Solution Output 307 A1.57 ORIGINAL MODEL:Calibration Mode 310 A1.58 ORIGINAL MODEL:Base Mode 312 A1.59 ORIGINAL MODEL:Policy Mode 313 A1.591 Simulation of Subsidy Options 318 A1.592 Subsidy Calculations 320 A1.593 Calculation of Subsidy Impact 322 x i v INDEX (continued) page SECTION A2: The MODIFIED HOUSING MARKET MODEL 324 A2.1 MODIFIED MODEL: Data F i l e s 327 A2.11 Additional Data F i l e s 327 A2.2 MODIFIED MODEL: A n a l y t i c a l Calculations 333 A2.21 New Construction Costs 333 A2.22 Computation of Ownership Costs 336 A2.3 MODIFIED MODEL: Demand Function Estimation 337 A2.31 Preparation for Estimation of the Demand Functions 337 A2.32 Estimating the Expenditure Share Function 348 A2.4 MODIFIED MODEL: Supply System Estimation 350 A2.41 Preparation for Estimation of the Supply Functions 350 A2.42 Estimating the P r o f i t Share Function 352 A2.43 Estimating the Cost Share Function 355 A2.5 MODIFIED MODEL: "Model" Households and Dwellings ...358 A2.51 Tenured "Model" Households:"HH2.FORT" 358 A2.52 1971 Tenured "Model" Dwellings:"D71.FORT" 359 A2.53 1961 Tenured "Model" Dwellings:"D61.FORT" 362 INDEX (continued) page SECTION A2: The MODIFIED HOUSING MARKET MODEL (continued) A2.6 MODIFIED MODEL: Solution Algorithm: "SIM02.FORT" ...363 A2.61 General outline 365 A2.62 I n i t i a l i z a t i o n and Input 366 A2.63 I n i t i a l Calculations 378 A2.631 Monthly Income 378 A2.632 Ordering the "Model" Households 379 A2.633 I n i t i a l i z e "Relative" Wealth Externality 379 A2.64 Price-Quantity Intercepts 380 A2.641 Quantity and P a r t i a l U t i l i t y : New Dwellings ....381 A2.642 Quantity, Price and P a r t i a l U t i l i t y : Existing Dwellings 381 A2.65 Parameter Iteration Loop 384 A2.66 Solution Algorithm Loop 385 A2.661 Relative Wealth Externality 385 A2.662 Household's Ordered Dwelling Stacks 387 A2.663 "Allocation" Algorithm 388 A2.664 Actual and Expected E x t e r n a l i t i e s 391 A2.67 MODIFIED MODEL:Calibration Mode 394 A2.68 MODIFIED MODEL:Base Mode 395 A2.69 MODIFIED MODEL:Policy Mode 396 A2.691 Simulation of Subsidy Options 402 A2.692 Subsidy Calculations 404 A2.693 Calculation of Subsidy Impact 404 xvi INDEX (continued) page SECTION A3; MODEL IMPLEMENTATION DATA and RESULTS. A3:**-1 CALGARY 415 A3:01-1 Zonal Characteristics (5 Zones) 416 A3:02-1 Clustering (5 Zones) 417 A3:03-1 ORIGINAL MODEL:Household Characteristics 418 A3:04-1 ORIGINAL MODEL:1961 Dwelling Charac t e r i s t i c s 419 A3:05-1 ORIGINAL MODEL:1961 Hedonics 420 A3:06-1 ORIGINAL MODEL:1971 Dwelling Characteristics [GAMMA c a l i b r a t i o n set] 421 A3:07-1 ORIGINAL MODEL:1971 Dwelling Characteristics [BETA c a l i b r a t i o n set] 422 A3:08-1 ORIGINAL MODEL:1971 Hedonics 423 A3:09-1 ORIGINAL MODEL:Household ALPHAS 424 A3:10-1 ORIGINAL MODEL:Prices, Costs and Quantities 426 A3:11-1 ORIGINAL MODEL:"GAMMA" Calibra t i o n Data 427 A3:12-1 ORIGINAL MODEL:"BETA" Calibr a t i o n Data 429 A3:13-1 ORIGINAL MODEL:Policy Data Set 431 A3: 14-1 MODIFIED MODEL:1971 Hedonics for Translog 433 A3:15-1 MODIFIED MODEL:Translog Input Variables S t a t i s t i c s 434 A3: 16-1 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [ a l l income groups] 435 A3:17-1 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [below mean incomes] 436 A3:18-1 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [above mean incomes] 437 A3: 19-1 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [guartile 1] 438 A3: 20-1 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 2] 439 A3 : 21 - 1 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 3] 440 A3:22-1 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 4] 441 A3:23-1 MODIFIED MODEL:Income and Price E l a s t i c i t i e s 442 A3:24-1 MODIFIED MODEL:Log Likelihood Values [Test of unity income e l a s t i c i t y ] .443 A3:25-1 MODIFIED MODEL:"Demand" Ca l i b r a t i o n Data 444 A3:26-1 MODIFIED MODEL:"Supply" Calibr a t i o n Data 447 A3:27-1 MODIFIED MODEL:Policy Data Set 450 xv i i INDEX (continued) page A3:**-2 KITCHENER 454 A3:01-2 Zonal Characteristics (5 Zones) 455 A3:02-2 Clustering (5 Zones) 456 A3:03-2 ORIGINAL MODEL:Household Characteristics 457 A3:04-2 ORIGINAL MODEL:1961 Dwelling Characteristics 458 A3:05-2 ORIGINAL MODEL:1961 Hedonics 459 A3-.06-2 ORIGINAL MODEL: 1971 Dwelling Characteristics [GAMMA c a l i b r a t i o n set] 460 A3:07-2 ORIGINAL MODEL:1971 Dwelling Characteristics [BETA c a l i b r a t i o n set] 461 A3:08-2 ORIGINAL MODEL:1971 Hedonics 462 A3:09-2 ORIGINAL MODEL:Household ALPHAS 463 A3:10-2 ORIGINAL MODEL:Prices, Costs and Quantities 465 A3:11-2 ORIGINAL MODEL:"GAMMA" Calibration Data 466 A3:12-2 ORIGINAL MODEL:"BETA" Calibr a t i o n Data 468 A3: 13-2 ORIGINAL MODEL:Policy Data Set 470 A3:14-2 MODIFIED MODEL:1971 Hedonics for Translog 472 A3:15-2 MODIFIED MODEL:Translog Input Variables S t a t i s t i c s 473 A3:16-2 MODIFIED MODEL Expenditure Share Estimates [ a l l income groups] 474 A3:17-2 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [below mean incomes] 475 A3:18-2 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [above mean incomes] 476 A3:19-2 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 1] 477 A3:20-2 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 2] 478 A3:21-2 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 3] 479 A3:22-2 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 4] 480 A3:23-2 MODIFIED MODEL:Income and Price E l a s t i c i t i e s 481 A3:24-2 MODIFIED MODEL:Log Likelihood Values [Test of unity income e l a s t i c i t y ] 482 A3:25-2 MODIFIED MODEL:"Demand" Calibra t i o n Data 483 A3:26-2 MODIFIED MODEL:"Supply" Ca l i b r a t i o n Data 486 A3:27-2 MODIFIED MODEL:Policy Data Set 489 xvi i i INDEX (continued) page A3:**-3 QUEBEC CITY 493 A3:U1-3 Zonal Characteristics (5 Zones) 494 A3:02-3 Clustering (5 Zones) 495 A3:03-3 ORIGINAL MODEL:Household Characteristics 496 A3:04-3 ORIGINAL MODEL:1961 Dwelling Characteristics 497 A3:05-3 ORIGINAL MODEL:1961 Hedonics 498 A3:06-3 ORIGINAL MODEL:1971 Dwelling Characteristics [GAMMA c a l i b r a t i o n set] 499 A3:07-3 ORIGINAL MODEL:1971 Dwelling Characteristics [BETA c a l i b r a t i o n set] .500 A3:08-3 ORIGINAL MODEL:1971 Hedonics 501 A3:09-3 ORIGINAL MODEL:Household ALPHAS 502 A3:10-3 ORIGINAL MODEL:Prices, Costs and Quantities 504 A3:11-3 ORIGINAL MODEL:"GAMMA" Calibration Data 505 A3:12-3 ORIGINAL MODEL:"BETA" Calibr a t i o n Data 507 A3: 13-3 ORIGINAL MODEL-.Policy Data Set 509 A3:14-3 MODIFIED MODEL:1971 Hedonics for Translog 511 A3:15-3 MODIFIED MODEL:Translog Input Variables S t a t i s t i c s 512 A3:16-3 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [ a l l income groups] 513 A3:17-3 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [below mean incomes] ...514 A3:18-3 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [above mean incomes] 515 A3:19-3 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 1 ] 516 A3:20-3 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 2] 517 A3:2l-3 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 3] 518 A3:22-3 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 4] 519 A3:23-3 MODIFIED MODEL:Income and Price E l a s t i c i t i e s 520 A3:24-3 MODIFIED MODEL:Log Likelihood Values [Test of unity income e l a s t i c i t y ] 521 A3:25-3 MODIFIED MODEL:"Demand" Calibra t i o n Data 522 A3:26-3 MODIFIED MODEL:"Supply" Calibration Data 525 A3:27-3 MODIFIED MODEL:Policy Data Set 528 xix INDEX (continued) page A3:**-4 ST. JOHN'S 532 A3:0l-4 Zonal Charac t e r i s t i c s (5 Zones) 533 A3:02-4 Clustering (5 Zones) 534 A3:03-4 ORIGINAL MODEL:Household Characteristics 535 A3:04-4 ORIGINAL MODEL:1961 Dwelling Charac t e r i s t i c s 536 A3-.05-4 ORIGINAL MODEL: 1 961 Hedonics 537 A3:06-4 ORIGINAL MODEL:1971 Dwelling Charac t e r i s t i c s [GAMMA c a l i b r a t i o n set] 538 A3:07-4 ORIGINAL MODEL:1971 Dwelling Ch a r a c t e r i s t i c s [BETA c a l i b r a t i o n set] 539 A3:08-4 ORIGINAL MODEL:1971 Hedonics 540 A3:09-4 ORIGINAL MODEL:Household ALPHAS 541 A3:10-4 ORIGINAL MODEL:Prices, Costs and Quantities 543 A3:11-4 ORIGINAL MODEL:"GAMMA" Calibration Data 544 A3:12-4 ORIGINAL MODEL:"BETA" Calibration Data 546 A3:13-4 ORIGINAL MODEL:Policy Data Set 548 A3:14-4 MODIFIED MODEL:1971 Hedonics for Translog 550 A3:15-4 MODIFIED MODEL:Translog Input Variables S t a t i s t i c s 551 A3:16-4 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [ a l l income groups] 552 A3:17-4 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [below mean incomes] 553 A3:18-4 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [above mean incomes] 554 A3:19-4 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 1 ] 555 A3:20-4 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 2] 556 A3:21-4 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 3] 557 A3:22-4 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 4] 558 A3:23-4 MODIFIED MODEL:Income and Price E l a s t i c i t i e s 559 A3:24-4 MODIFIED MODEL:Log Likelihood Values [Test of unity income e l a s t i c i t y ] 560 A3:25-4 MODIFIED MODEL:"Demand" Calibra t i o n Data 561 A3:26-4 MODIFIED MODEL:"Supply" Calibr a t i o n Data 564 A3:27-4 MODIFIED MODEL:Policy Data Set 567 XX INDEX (continued) page A3:**-5 SASKATOON 571 A3:G*1-5 Zonal Charac t e r i s t i c s (5 Zones) 572 A3:02-5 Clustering (5 Zones) 573 A3:03-5 ORIGINAL MODEL:Household Cha r a c t e r i s t i c s 574 A3:04-5 ORIGINAL MODEL:1961 Dwelling Characteristics 575 A3:05-5 ORIGINAL MODEL:1961 Hedonics 576 A3:06-5 ORIGINAL MODEL:1971 Dwelling Characteristics [GAMMA c a l i b r a t i o n set] 577 A3-.07-5 ORIGINAL MODEL: 1971 Dwelling Charac t e r i s t i c s [BETA c a l i b r a t i o n set] 578 A3:08-5 ORIGINAL MODEL:1971 Hedonics 579 A3:09-5 ORIGINAL MODEL:Household ALPHAS 580 A3:10-5 ORIGINAL MODEL:Prices, Costs and Quantities 582 A3:11-5 ORIGINAL MODEL:"GAMMA" Calibra t i o n Data 583 A3:12-5 ORIGINAL MODEL:"BETA" Calibr a t i o n Data 585 A3:13-5 ORIGINAL MODEL:Policy Data Set 587 A3:14-5 MODIFIED MODEL:1971 Hedonics for Translog 589 A3:15-5 MODIFIED MODEL:Translog Input Variables S t a t i s t i c s 590 A3:16-5 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [ a l l income groups] . 591 A3:17-5 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [below mean incomes] 592 A3:18-5 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [above mean incomes] 593 A3:19-5 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 1] 594 A3:20-5 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 2] .595 A3:21-5 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 3] 596 A3:22-5 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 4] ..597 A3:23-5 MODIFIED MODEL:Income and Price E l a s t i c i t i e s 598 A3:2 4-5 MODIFIED MODEL:Log Likelihood Values [Test of unity income e l a s t i c i t y ] 599 A3:25-5 MODIFIED MODEL:"Demand" Calibration Data 600 A3:26-5 MODIFIED MODEL:"Supply" Cal i b r a t i o n Data 603 A3:27-5 MODIFIED MODEL:Policy Data Set 606 xxi INDEX (continued) page A3:**-6 SUDBURY 610 A3:0l-6 Zonal Characteristics (5 Zones) 611 A3:02-6 Clustering (5 Zones) 612 A3:03-6 ORIGINAL MODEL:Household Characteristics 613 A3:04-6 ORIGINAL MODEL:1961 Dwelling Characteristics 614 A3:05-6 ORIGINAL MODEL:1961 Hedonics 615 A3-.06-6 ORIGINAL MODEL: 1971 Dwelling Charac t e r i s t i c s [GAMMA c a l i b r a t i o n set] 616 A3:07-6 ORIGINAL MODEL:1971 Dwelling Characteristics [BETA c a l i b r a t i o n set] 617 A3:08-6 ORIGINAL MODEL:1971 Hedonics 618 A3:09-6 ORIGINAL MODEL household ALPHAS 619 A3:10-6 ORIGINAL MODEL:Prices, Costs and Quantities 620 A3:11-6 ORIGINAL MODEL:"GAMMA" Calibra t i o n Data 622 A3:12-6 ORIGINAL MODEL:"BETA" Calibr a t i o n Data 624 A3:13-6 ORIGINAL MODEL:Policy Data Set 626 A3:14-6 MODIFIED MODEL:1971 Hedonics for Translog 628 A3:15-6 MODIFIED MODEL:Translog Input Variables S t a t i s t i c s 629 A3: 16-6 MODIFIED MODEL-.Expendi ture Share Estimates [ a l l income groups] 630 A3:17-6 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [below mean incomes] 631 A3:18-6 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [above mean incomes] 632 A3:19-6 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quar t i l e 1 ] 633 A3:20-6 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 2] 634 A3:21~6 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 3] 635 A3:22-6 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 4] 636 A3:23-6 MODIFIED MODEL:Income and Price E l a s t i c i t i e s 637 A3:24-6 MODIFIED MODEL:Log Likelihood Values [Test of unity income e l a s t i c i t y ] 638 A3:25-6 MODIFIED MODEL:"Demand" Calibra t i o n Data 639 A3:26-6 MODIFIED MODEL:"Supply" Cal i b r a t i o n Data 642 A3:27-6 MODIFIED MODEL:Policy Data Set 645 xxi i INDEX (continued) page A3:**-7 VANCOUVER 649 A3:01~7 Zonal Characteristics (5 Zones) 650 A3:02-7 Clustering (5 Zones) .' 651 A3:03-7 ORIGINAL MODEL:Household Characteristics 652 A3:04-7 ORIGINAL MODEL:1961 Dwelling Charac t e r i s t i c s 653 A3:05-7 ORIGINAL MODEL:1961 Hedonics 654 A3:06-7 ORIGINAL MODEL:1971 Dwelling Charac t e r i s t i c s [GAMMA c a l i b r a t i o n set] 655 A3:07-7 ORIGINAL MODEL:1971 Dwelling Characteristics [BETA c a l i b r a t i o n set] 656 A3:08-7 ORIGINAL MODEL:1971 Hedonics 657 A3:09-7 ORIGINAL MODEL:Household ALPHAS 658 A3:10-7 ORIGINAL MODEL:Prices, Costs and Quantities 659 A3:11-7 ORIGINAL MODEL:"GAMMA" Calibra t i o n Data 661 A3:12-7 ORIGINAL MODEL:"BETA" Cal i b r a t i o n Data 663 A3: 13-7 ORIGINAL MODEL:Policy Data Set 665 A3: 14-7 MODIFIED MODEL:1971 Hedonics for Translog 667 A3:15-7 MODIFIED MODEL:Translog Input Variables S t a t i s t i c s 668 A3:16-7 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [ a l l income groups] 669 A3:17-7 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [below mean incomes] 670 A3:18-7 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [above mean incomes] 671 A3:19-7 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 1] 672 A3:20-7 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 2] 673 A3:21-7 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 3] 674 A3: 22-7 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 4] 675 A3:23-7 MODIFIED MODEL:Income and Price E l a s t i c i t i e s 676 A3:24-7 MODIFIED MODEL:Log Likelihood Values [Test of unity income e l a s t i c i t y ] 677 A3:25-7 MODIFIED MODEL:"Demand" Calibration Data 678 A3-.26-7 MODIFIED MODEL:"Supply" Cal i b r a t i o n Data 681 A3:27-7 MODIFIED MODEL:Policy Data Set 684 INDEX (continued) page A3:**-8 WINNIPEG 688 A3:0l-8 Zonal Characteristics (5 Zones) 689 A3:02-8 Clustering (5 Zones) 690 A3:03-8 ORIGINAL MODEL'Household Characteristics 691 A3:04-8 ORIGINAL MODEL:1961 Dwelling Characteristics 692 A3:05-8 ORIGINAL MODEL:1961 Hedonics 693 A3:06-8 ORIGINAL MODEL:1971 Dwelling Characteristics [GAMMA c a l i b r a t i o n set] 694 A3:07-8 ORIGINAL MODEL:1971 Dwelling Characteristics [BETA c a l i b r a t i o n set] 695 A3:08-8 ORIGINAL MODEL:1971 Hedonics 696 A3:09-8 ORIGINAL MODEL:Household ALPHAS 697 A3: 10-8 ORIGINAL MODEL:Prices, Costs and Quantities 698 A3: 11-8 ORIGINAL MODEL:"GAMMA" Calibration Data 700 A3:12-8 ORIGINAL MODEL:"BETA" Calibra t i o n Data 702 A3: 13-8 ORIGINAL MODEL-.Policy Data Set 704 A3:14-8 MODIFIED MODEL:1971 Hedonics for Translog 706 A3:15-8 MODIFIED MODEL:Translog Input Variables S t a t i s t i c s 707 A3:16-8 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [ a l l income groups] 708 A3:17-8 MODIFIED MODEL Expenditure Share Estimates [below mean incomes] 709 A3:18-8 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [above mean incomes] 710 A3: 19-8 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 1 ] '711 A3: 20-8 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 2] 712 A3:21-8 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 3] 713 A3: 22-8 MODIFIED MODEL:Expenditure Share Estimates [quartile 4] 714 A3:23-8 MODIFIED MODEL:Income and Price E l a s t i c i t i e s 715 A3: 24-8 MODIFIED MODEL:Log Likelihood Values [Test of unity income e l a s t i c i t y ] 716 A3: 25-8 MODIFIED MODEL:"Demand" Calibra t i o n Data 717 A3:26-8 MODIFIED MODEL:"Supply" Ca l i b r a t i o n Data 720 A3:27-8 MODIFIED MODEL:Policy Data Set 723 xxiv SECTION A4: PROGRAM LISTINGS page A4.01 SIM01.FORT:Simulation program for ORIGINAL MODEL 727 A4.02 SIM02.FORT:Simulation program for MODIFIED MODEL 788 SECTION A5: POLICY SIMULATION RESULTS A5.01 Simulation Results:Impact of Subsidy Level 857 A5.02 A Comparison of the MODELS 892 1 CHAPTER 01: INTRODUCTION Senior Government involvement in housing and urban programs in Canada has grown r a p i d i l y but haphazardly during the period since World War I I . This involvement has resulted not necessarily from any e x p l i c i t decision by governments to be responsible for housing welfare, but as a result of the linkage between the housing commodity and general economic welfare. Public sector involvement with the housing commodity i s not peculiar to Canada, or for that matter, to North America. It i s a more or less universal phenomenon, with European government involvement frequently far in excess of that seen in North America. This widespread p a r t i c i p a t i o n of the public sector in the housing market suggests that there must be good reasons why housing should be a matter of public concern over and above i t s impact on general economic welfare. Many alternative reasons and j u s t i f i c a t i o n s have been offered for a government's role, but few have been completely substantiated by research or analysis. Throughout their history Canadian housing markets have revealed complexities that s t i l l seem to b a f f l e contemporary policy makers. John Saywell (1975; p2), in reviewing these markets, notes that; ' the immobility, d u r a b i l i t y and high i n i t i a l cost of housing have meant that the problem has been one not simply of the aggregate amount of housing stock in existence, but i t s location and kind in r e l a t i o n to the movement, growth, and composition of the population, l e v e l of income, household formation and family s i z e . Even farsighted planning on a national l e v e l could not have completely anticipated the regional and occupational pattern of Canadian economic and s o c i a l development. Private enterprise has found i t impossible. Housing has seldom kept pace with urban population growth, and low income groups have always been inadequately housed in urban Canada.' 2 A structured Canadian housing policy has been slow in developing. U n t i l the 1970's public p o l i c i e s were directed towards maximizing the regional and national economic growth through state-aided i n d u s t r i a l development. While these p o l i c i e s encouraged regional growth, the private sector was l e f t to provide the necessary housing and other goods and services for the rapidly expanding urban and i n d u s t r i a l society. The last decade saw a s h i f t in policy whereby housing was viewed not solely as a good or service, the consumption of which should be subject to usual income or wealth constraints, but rather as a fundamental right for a l l . Smith (1976, p114), indicates that t h i s position i s c l e a r l y r e f l e c t e d in statements made by the then Minister of Urban A f f a i r s , that the Federal government has "adopted the basic p r i n c i p l e that i t i s the fundamental right of Canadians, regardless of their economic circumstances, to enjoy adequate shelter at reasonable cost", and by the Ontario Ministry of Housing that "adequate housing at affordable prices i s a basic right of a l l residents of Ontario". The resulting federal programs showed a substantial growth in direc t government p a r t i c i p a t i o n in housing and a widespread use of housing policy as a vehicle for resource r e d i s t r i b u t i o n . This point of view i s taken by Smith (1976, p114). 'Consistent with the notion that housing is a fundamental right to be shared by a l l , Canadian housing policy in the 1970's encouraged home ownership, discouraged private ownership of rental dwellings, provided for government and non-profit ownership of rental dwellings, and redistributed income in favour of lower income households.' While evidence offered by Hellyer (1969) and Dennis and Fish (1972) supports the need for government intervention i f s u f f i c i e n t adequate housing i s to be provided for a l l Canadians, the debate arises over the l e v e l and the mode of that intervention and the 3 long run e f f i c i e n c y of existing p o l i c i e s and programs in meeting s o c i a l objectives. The evaluation of the desired l e v e l of intervention requires a "normative" economic framework that necessitates the derivation of a s o c i a l welfare c r i t e r i o n against which to judge al t e r n a t i v e s . This issue arises because " s u f f i c i e n t adequate" housing is defined in terms of a combination of the quantity and quality of a housing unit rather than in absolute quantity terms. This leaves the subject open to varying p o l i t i c a l and technical interpretations. The question of the mode of intervention i s more open to th e o r e t i c a l and empirical analysis. Alternatives of the l a t t e r can be evaluated u t i l i z i n g available data and a n a l y t i c a l t o o l s . The objective of this thesis i s not an attempt to j u s t i f y government involvement in the housing markets in terms of a s o c i a l or p o l i t i c a l philosophy or to j u s t i f y a p a r t i c u l a r l e v e l of involvement, but to take a current housing concern - that of the low income household - and to analyse the long run economic impact and economic cost of alternative modes of involvement directed at t h i s concern. As a housing market analyst the f i r s t question one must ask i s whether governments should intervene; the, next questions are what le v e l of support should be given and where. Then, for any degree of support, there remains the question of how i t should be provided. It i s t h i s l a t t e r question of the mode of support that t h i s thesis addresses. 4 1.1 Introduction 'Public subsidies are undertaken for many reasons other than improving the self-perceived well-being of recipi e n t s ; benefits may also accrue to neighbors of the recipients or to a l l c i t i z e n s of the c i t y or country in which he l i v e s . The essential point i s to distinguish among benefits to the recipient, benefits to others and costs.' (Aaron(l972, p45)) Housing issues have seen extensive research and analysis- via a multitude of d i s c i p l i n e s , each focusing on a d i f f e r e n t aspect considered of importance within that d i s c i p l i n e . Because of the complexity of the interrelationships involved in an urban housing market, many important linkages have been overlooked. This study does not pretend to consider the s o c i a l or environmental implications but focuses solely on the economic aspects of alte r n a t i v e government housing market p o l i c i e s . The approach follows the format of several previous attempts to use the techniques of quantitative economics in modeling the i n t r i c a c i e s of an urban housing market. Such delineation of the key features of an urban housing market and the understanding of how they aff e c t each other are considered c r u c i a l in determining the impact of government p o l i c i e s on urban housing welfare and the manner in which the current stock of housing w i l l be u t i l i z e d in the future. While the main focus of t h i s research i s towards an ove r a l l evaluation of the impact of alte r n a t i v e modes of housing subsidization, the study concentrates on the evaluation of the impact of alternative supply side (direct product) subsidies on regional housing markets. These supply-oriented subsidies are viewed as an alte r n a t i v e , and/or complement, to the general class of demand side (cash consumption) subsidies now frequently advocated as the most r e a l i s t i c means of meeting the "aims" of the 5 current s o c i a l housing philosophy, concerned with the plight of the low income households. In studing housing markets one does not have the single homogeneous market of neoclassical economics. In fact the most d i s t i n c t i v e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of a housing market i s i t s d i v e r s i t y . To deal s a t i s f a c t o r i l y with the possible effects of government intervention into housing markets requires moving beyond an elementary economic framework into questions of timing, to the d i s t i n c t i o n s between the new and the existing housing stock and to formulations of housing submarkets with di f f e r e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . The a n a l y t i c a l portion of th i s thesis thus comprises simulation results generated by a regional housing market simulation model i n i t i a l l y developed by the Urban Institute (U.I.), (de Leeuw and Struyk (1975) and MacRae (1978)), with refinements and modifications that allow i t s application in a Canadian context. With an emphasis on policy formulation, the model deals with long term regional housing quality and cost rather than short run fluctuations in the market state. This thesis, therefore, indicates possible future directions for housing p o l i c i e s in terms of the mode of intervention and highlights potential regional d i s p a r i t y under a un i f i e d national p o l i c y but does not make reference to the actual short run mechanics of the delivery. 6 1.2 Overview Social concern with, and debate over, housing consumption levels has been p o l i t i c a l l y evident in Canada throughout t h i s century, (Saywell (1975)). As a result t h i s period has seen numerous Federal and Pr o v i n c i a l programs directed at improving the quality of the housing stock. Generally, intervention has been geared towards increasing the size of the housing stock by focusing on new construction; a p o l i c y necessary to s a t i s f y a backlog of demand created by the world wars and changing s o c i a l a t t i tudes. Current evidence suggests that t h i s aim has been met: Canadians entered the 1970's extremely well housed. In comparison to other nations, Canada ranked second only to the United States in the provision of basic equipment, was t i e d with the United States for the lowest occupation density with 1.6 rooms per person, and ranked f i r s t in the Western World with an average of 5.3 rooms per dwelling. Furthermore, new r e s i d e n t i a l construction exceeded net new family formation by 62% during t h i s period ' (Smith ( 1976, pH8)) This current standard of housing has been achieved via programs that concentrate on supply side intervention. During the 70's these supply side programs have been severely c r i t i c i s e d in both the U.S. and Canada. Some c r i t i c s w i l l argue that the supply side approach i s j u s t i f i e d for housing but that the previous programs have not met the high expectations set for them because of their structure, administration and financing. Other c r i t i c s attack the basic goals of such p o l i c i e s , while an ever-increasing number argue that these goals can' be better achieved with income transfers (Saffran (1976, p234)). The main c r i t i c i s m of "housing" p o l i c i e s in Canada, most notably from Dennis and Fish (1972), i s concerned with the fact that supply side programs rely heavily on the construction of new housing units. This has meant that the subsidies have been dwelling-specific and have thus induced 7 horizontal inequities because of the limited number of units supported. Furthermore, the di r e c t construction of s o c i a l housing has faced additional c r i t i c i s m because of the c l u s t e r i n g of such a c t i v i t y in s p e c i f i c locations, which may induce a welfare stigma. Under pressure from these changing attitudes and in keeping with a philosophy of providing access to "adequate" and "affordable" housing to a l l , housing policy in Canada in the 1970's has gravitated towards the widespread use of housing policy as a means of income r e d i s t r i b u t i o n , rather than primarily to improve or maintain the standard of the t o t a l housing stock. In accordance with t h i s changing focus, a myriad of confusing and sometimes c o n f l i c t i n g p o l i c i e s and programs have been introduced at a l l le v e l s of government, as regulators s t r i v e to implement the new philosophy. Have Canadian regulators now become too preoccupied with the a f f o r d a b i l i t y and r e d i s t r i b u t i o n issues, losing sight of the significance of the quality of the housing stock? Smith (1976, p126), in reviewing government intervention in Canada notes that: 'The nature of the Canadian housing market has thus changed d r a s t i c a l l y in the la s t few years in response to government p o l i c i e s . This change was c l e a r l y the result of a substantive philosophical change with respect to housing and not the result of a market f a i l u r e , since housing policy has become primarily a transmission mechanism for income r e d i s t r i b u t i o n rather than for improving the nation's housing standards. It is therefore unlikely that t h i s change w i l l improve housing standards, although i t w i l l r e d i s t r i b u t e income in Canada.' Evidence offered by demand side consumption subsidy enthusiasts, while indicating that income problems exi s t , provides no proof that such subsidies offer "better" long run s o c i a l and housing solutions than either a purely supply side involvement or a blending of both supply and demand side p o l i c i e s and offers no 8 strong evidence of the r e l a t i v e cost. In order to r a t i o n a l i z e the potential impact of the numerous policy/program alternatives available to governments, th i s thesis focuses on six policy scenarios that r e f l e c t varying degrees of "leakage" of the provided housing subsidy to the consumption of non-housing goods and services. These alternatives cover the continuum from pure cash (income) subsidies, wherein up to a one hundred percent "leakage" to the consumption of non-housing goods and services may occur, to dire c t product intervention, wherein the recipients may be required to reduce their consumption of non-housing goods and services in order to improve their housing standards. The computation of the cost incurred by the government under the six alternative scenarios, for selected Canadian c i t i e s , is undertaken using a simulation model based on a long run (ten year) regional housing market model developed in the U.S. during the early 1970's. This model traces the interaction inherent in the supply and demand of housing in each of many separate, but highly inter-dependent, housing submarkets. This model is derived from a microeconomic perspective on households and owners contracting for housing at prices and quantities determined in several submarkets. A selected CMA is represented in the form of several r e s i d e n t i a l zones that r e f l e c t v ariations in the housing stock, income levels and distance from the Central Business D i s t r i c t . On the demand side, model households are characterized into one of ten groupings ( r e f l e c t i n g age, family status and income earners) each having d i f f e r e n t preference schedules. These preference schedules are based on translog u t i l i t y functions which 9 compare housing consumption, after-tax income, leisure time and neighbourhood q u a l i t y . On the supply side, a housing unit i s characterized by the quantity of "housing services" (combination of size and quality) and the price per unit of the service. Several d i f f e r e n t q u a l i t y levels are distinguished to correspond to the many alte r n a t i v e quality submarkets in an actual housing market. P r o f i t maximizing behaviour by the owners i s assumed to imply li n e a r supply curves (of varying slope for each type of housing unit) as an approximation of the price-quantity relations that govern the behaviour of owners over a ten year period. An unlimited volume of new construction i s allowed at fixed prices, the only constraint being that a minimum le v e l of housing services must be provided by a new dwelling. Submarkets are derived in the model because dwellings are not perfect substitutes for one another in either supply or demand. Thus i t i s possible for the price per unit of housing service to d i f f e r amoung dwellings in equilibrium, although prices cannot d i f f e r too much because of the price responsiveness of demand. A model solution is represented by a decade-end set of household locations and quantities and prices of housing services for which no one has any incentive to change. This solution i s based on a CMA's set of supply and demand parameters, a 1971 decade-start household p r o f i l e and the 1961 decade-start market state. The predicted market conditions are based on an assignment procedure which sets unit prices such that no household has incentives to relocate and owners have no incentive to provide an alternative quantity of housing services. While the model is conceptually simple and asssumes convenient 10 forms for household preferences and dwelling supply curves, i t captures many aspects of housing markets important in distinguishing the impact of alternative policy subsidies. Policy a l t e r n a t i v e s are introduced by simply reformulating a l t e r n a t i v e l y the demand and/or supply functions to allow straightforward simulations of the necessary subsidy costs under the alternative p o l i c y scenarios. The model has been applied to eight CMAs r e f l e c t i n g a d i s t r i b u t i o n with regard to geographical location, population and income growth during the- 1960-70 decade in order to obtain values for the key supply and demand parameters. The application to a number of metropolitan areas was considered necessary because several of the behavioural parameters are obtained through repeated simulation of the model for an area. These parameters based on empirical applications determine what the model actually says about the market ef f e c t s of the d i f f e r e n t p o l i c i e s and the implied costs associated with supporting minimum housing standards. 11 1.3 Conclusions It i s argued in this thesis that given the h i s t o r i c a l and current states of the housing markets in Canada, the most e f f i c i e n t solution to exis t i n g and forseeable housing problems i s a combination of supply and demand side interventions. By focusing on the most intractable and enduring housing problem, that associated with low income households, p o l i c i e s that r e f l e c t a l ternative approaches to intervention have been evaluated in terms of their cost to support a given standard of housing within selected Canadian metropolitan areas. The alternative forms of intervention r e f l e c t various levels of "resource" r e d i s t r i b u t i o n in association with the market support. In selecting intervention scenarios that involve varying degrees of "leakage" of subsidy d o l l a r s to the consumption of other goods and services, this study has been successful in quantifying the r e l a t i v e costs and "resource" e f f i c i e n c i e s of a l t e r n a t i v e l y advocated means of intervention and support. The basic premise of the argument presented in t h i s thesis i s that a "direct product" subsidy program w i l l support a minimum standard of housing stock at a cost lower than that associated with a demand side "income" or "in-kind" subsidy program. The suggested important differences between these three alternative policy forms are; 1. an "income" policy approach involves the subsidization of incomes such that the recipient w i l l select by choice the supported minimum quantity of housing. 2. an "in-kind" policy approach involves the subsidization of incomes at a level dependent on either the supported minimum quantity of housing or the associated required expenditure. 12 3. a "direct product" policy approach involves either the d i r e c t subsidization of c a p i t a l and/or operating costs, or the d i r e c t provision of an additional quantity of housing services. The theorectical and empirical evidence indicates that the "income" and "direct product" p o l i c i e s form, respectively, the upper and lower extremes of the policy continuum in terms of cost e f f i c i e n c y : the "in-kind" approach f i l l s the gap between these two extremes. Under certain extreme market conditions or subsidization l e v e l s , "in-kind" p o l i c i e s may be equivalent to an "income" or a "direct product" subsidy. The computed magnitude of the t y p i c a l difference in subsidization cost (and consequently e f f i c i e n c y under a supported minimum quantity scenario) between the two extreme forms of intervention i s in the range of a factor of 10 to 12. That i s , i t is suggested that an "income" based form of intervention w i l l "cost", in subsidy d o l l a r s , at least ten times more than the most e f f i c i e n t form of "direct product" intervention. At a t y p i c a l current cost of $30.00 per month to support a "reasonable" l e v e l of housing via a "direct product" policy, the cost of a corresponding "income" based policy w i l l be in the region of $300.00 per month. On a national basis t h i s would involve approximately 250,000 households, suggesting t o t a l a lternative subsidy b i l l s of either 60 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s or 900 m i l l i o n d o l l a r s , respect i v e l y . 13 CHAPTER 02: POLICY ALTERNATIVES in SUPPORTING HOUSING CONSUMPTION Housing l i t e r a t u r e frequently addresses p o l i t i c a l l y sensitive short run concerns with the state of housing and associated markets while neglecting the long run forces underlying the operations of the markets. A l l too often authors suggest government intervention to treat the symptoms, not the disease. Under such p o l i c i e s , the disease simply generates alternative symptoms and the process begins yet another cycle. Typical of t h i s s i t u a t i o n is the mixture of rent control, taxation p o l i c i e s and rental housing construction subsidy programs that have been implemented in Canada over the l a s t decade. The real "economic issues" of housing (and thus the source of housing "problems") are associated with the long run market forces that determine the l e v e l and d i s t r i b u t i o n of housing consumption. These fundamental issues give r i s e to the more readily v i s i b l e s u p e r f i c i a l problems faced in day to day confrontations, but the association between the day to day problems and the underlying long run forces i s very complex. In a general economic sense, these "economic issues" arise either because of market " f a i l u r e " in terms of e f f i c i e n c y concepts, or resource d i s t r i b u t i o n concerns as r e f l e c t e d in terms of equity concepts. The "problems" with the housing market are generally traced to concerns with the equity of the d i s t r i b u t i o n of the housing stock while the real economic "issues" facing the market w i l l arise from the long run e f f i c i e n c y of housing market operation. Equity issues concerning the d i s t r i b u t i o n of housing resources .must thus be handled within the context of e f f i c i e n c y considerations. 14 One of the successes of economic theory has been the derivation of the conditions under which competitive markets produce e f f i c i e n t resource u t i l i z a t i o n . These ideas date back to Adam Smith, but i t has only been in recent years that the theory has been completed (De Salvo (1976, p305)). In considering housing issues, two of the governing propositions of competitive markets are of in t e r e s t . The f i r s t i s that a competitive equilibrium i s e f f i c i e n t ; the second i s that any e f f i c i e n t a l l o c a t i o n of resources can be achieved by competitive markets, given a suitable r e a l l o c a t i o n of the i n i t i a l resources held. It i s these same propositions that provide the rationale for private enterprise to operate through a competitive market system without government intervention. Nevertheless, the conditions for competitive markets are based on certain assumptions that may not hold for s p e c i f i c markets. In such cases, the basic propositions j u s t i f y i n g decentralized decision-making no longer hold, and there is a need for some kind of c o l l e c t i v e decision-making that w i l l induce market ef f ic iency. Potential v i o l a t i o n s of these necessary conditions for a competitive market f a l l into two groups. The f i r s t i s with markets where several factors simply d i s t o r t the competitive nature; the second concerns markets where the structure prevents competition. It can be shown that in otherwise competitive markets, e x t e r n a l i t i e s , public goods, uncertainty and incomplete information render the market solution i n e f f i c i e n t . With these factors absent, markets showing increasing returns to scale and non-competitive markets in general render the same res u l t , (De Salvo (1976, p307)). In addition to e f f i c i e n c y considerations, there i s another major reason for government intervention into private markets; the 1 5 r e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s o u r c e s i n s o c i a l l y d e s i r e d w a y s . I n o t h e r w o r d s , e f f i c i e n c y i n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s o u r c e s d o e s n o t n e c e s s a r i l y i m p l y e q u i t y i n t h e r e s u l t a n t d i s t r i b u t i o n . One o f t h e p r o p o s i t i o n s o f c o m p e t i t i v e m a r k e t s i s t h a t r e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e i n i t i a l r e s o u r c e s i s s u f f i c i e n t t o o b t a i n any d e s i r e d f i n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e s o u r c e s by a c o m p e t i t i v e m a r k e t . Even w i t h e f f i c i e n t m a r k e t s t h e r e i s t h u s j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r i n t e r v e n t i o n t o r e d i s t r i b u t e t h e r e s o u r c e s h e l d by i n d i v i d u a l h o u s e h o l d s . 2.1 Housing Market Intervention Reported housing problems range from concerns with the cost of home ownership and the tightness of the rental market to loc a t i o n a l concerns such as those associated with the inner c i t y : t y p i c a l l y concerns with equity. The most consistently and commonly voiced concern of a l l involves housing standards for low income households. However, since no national housing objectives e x i s t , housing problems are a l l too frequently defined in terms of the commentator's so c i a l stance. As a re s u l t , a housing concern that may be viewed as a problem by one commentator i s not seen the same way by another, or in the eyes of the public at large. The perceived magnitude of the problem may also vary. For example, commentators' attempts to define an income to expenditure r a t i o problem deviate in three areas. The f i r s t involves what is considered to be the income, the second concerns the defining of expenditure and t h i r d l y , value judgments vary in determining what expenditure-income r a t i o r e f l e c t s a problem. But within the maze of stated problems there exist several common concerns which are at t r a c t i n g the attention of governments. Where does one start in analysing housing problems? However portrayed, housing problems r e f l e c t concerns with perceived needs of the members of society. How one defines these needs is a complex and perplexing question in i t s e l f . Any attempt to define such needs takes one into a very contentious, v a l u e - f i l l e d area (Smith (1971, p9)). Under a p o l i t i c a l assertion that Canadians have the right to "adequate" and "affordable" housing continuing government support w i l l be a necessity. It i s considered that the "debate" over the form of such intervention often arises in a large part from purely p o l i t i c a l / s o c i a l considerations that are beyond the realm of technical analysis. Such considerations include differences in opinion as to the r e l a t i v e importance of various housing and non-housing goals, and frequent disagreement over what i s an equitable d i s t r i b u t i o n of national income and wealth. In other instances, c o n f l i c t i n g assumptions regarding the s o c i a l , economic and market forces which generate our housing problems underlie many of the differences under debate. Policy alternatives available range from purely demand or purely supply oriented national p o l i c i e s through to complex regional p o l i c i e s combining both demand and supply oriented elements. Program options range from continued investor subsidization via the taxation system, or dire c t product subsidization as with the former Assisted Rental Program (ARP), the Assisted Home Ownership Program (AHOP) and the Residential Rehabilitation Assistance Program (RRAP), to dire c t consumption subsidization via unconditional income transfers or conditional shelter allowance transfers. Just how poverty i s defined i s of considerable significance to the analysis of the housing subsidization question Several alternatives can be offered, in terms of a minimum income, a minimum u t i l i t y l e v e l or and minimum quantities of "merit" goods Each suggests a dif f e r e n t t h e o r e t i c a l platform and therefore a s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t solution regarding government intervention 18 IK! C A S . H (U«"»CIOMA»1 »OncA. ( . c orNCv . A i o r v o.V, llllllllllllllliilllllllllll illllll|tlB||lll|l|ll|l^lll||||||||i IN D » « . £ . C T CorvsA r\jcA torsj I l l l l l l i l i l i P B S i l l g i i i i l Figure 01: Intervention Policy Forms Society holds an option on whether i t should make a minimum le v e l of income, defined in d o l l a r s or in terms of u t i l i t y , a v ailable to a l l households, or whether a minimum quantity of necessary consumption items be made ava i l a b l e . The option depends on whether the concern i s with housing poverty or poverty per se. Musgrave (1976, p221), in arguing the option in the U.S. context, concludes that; 'A view of d i s t r i b u t i v e j u s t i c e as setting poverty f l o o r s in terms of meeting "e s s e n t i a l needs" i s part of our country's s o c i a l mores and not just a r e f l e c t i o n of special pressures or f a i l u r e to grasp the underlying economics. This being the case, one must take a somewhat skeptical view regarding the conclusion reached by standard economic reasoning that housing support i s i n e f f i c i e n t because the welfare gain, as valued by the receiving household, would have been larger with a cash grant. Such i s the case only i f the policy objective i s taken to be general income support without interference in income use.' One must d i f f e r e n t i a t e between the concept of "welfare" 19 i n e f f i c i e n c y associated with placing l i m i t a t i o n s on consumer sovereignty and a "resource" i n e f f i c i e n c y , which may result for example, because subsidies are so structured as to induce over capital-intense developments or an "excess" consumption of other goods and services. Musgrave considers the l a t t e r to be obvious elements of i n e f f i c i e n c y that can readily be avoided by redesigning the subsidy mode or terms. The former, however, involves a judgment that d i s t r i b u t i o n a l adjustments should be ruled out and that the entire approach in terms of minimum quantities should be held inadmissable. Such i s the case only i f the stated policy objective i s taken to be general income support without interference in the use of the income. Given that there currently exist government imposed market constraints (zoning, occupancy and building bylaws) on minimum housing consumption l e v e l s , as evidenced by the current " a f f o r d a b i l i t y " problem, i t i s extremely d i f f i c u l t to dismiss a subsidy approach in terms of merit goods. This is taken not to imply a rejection by society of pure income r e d i s t r i b u t i o n , but a recognition of "housing poverty" in i t s own right. If one accepts concern with minimum consumption l e v e l s , then another concern, the poverty associated with that consumption good, is i m p l i c i t . Housing i s one good where such a concern e x i s t s . 20 2.2 Generalized Forms of Intervention P o l i c i e s The alternative general policy forms considered are presented graphically in Figure 02. The actual nature of the subsidy i s best v i s u a l i s e d in terms of the proportion of the resultant expenditure on "housing" services (PX*QX) met from subsidies. In Figure 02(a) an "income" subsidy, which i s independent of the l e v e l of expenditure on housing, PX*QX, may range from a small percentage of the expenditure (zero in fact or PX*A as an example) to a multiple of the expenditure, for example PX*B. The t y p i c a l income subsidy options available consist of either a f l a t guaranteed minimum income or a negative income tax pol i c y , where the guaranteed minimum income i s e f f e c t i v e l y a function of the income l e v e l . These options are represented as; a. Subsidy = POL1 * (GMI - AY) where AY < GMI and POL1 = 1. and AY is the unsubsidized income l e v e l GMI is the guaranteed minimum income POL1 is a policy parameter That i s , the recipient receives a guaranteed minimum income of GMI with the subsidy amount equal to the guaranteed minimum income minus actual income. and b. Subsidy = POL1 * (GMI - AY) where AY < GMI and 0 < POL1 < 1. and AY is the unsubsidized income l e v e l GMI is the guaranteed minimum income POL1 i s a po l i c y parameter That i s , the recipient receives only a percentage of the highest supported income, GMI. For example, with a POL1 parameter of 0.5 and support to $100., a recipient with zero income w i l l receive only $50. V OA (b) COMST(?.PMN)tCJ C A S H S o G S V D V p>r»c<Z. Q.Z Q X (O o i e . e c r cotsi<TRpMK)to S U B S I D Y price a x a x p r * c e p<"\ce (.e.) DIRECT EKP£Ni i i\Tuee 5u65>»DV Q T QX (0 Di^eoT Plaice sussiD^/ Figure 02: Alternative Forms of "Housing" Consumption Subsidies 22 In modeling the "income" subsidy option (considering the support of a minimum quantity, QX), the subsidy s p e c i f i c a t i o n becomes independent of any guaranteed minimum income. Instead, the amount of the subsidy required is given by; Subsidy = YS - AY where, YS i s the income level at which the household would choose to consume QX units of "housing" services AY i s the unsubsidized income l e v e l . The subsidy amount i s calculated by deriving the income l e v e l at which the household chooses to consume QX and subtracting the actual income. A "constrained cash" or "in-kind" demand subsidy program (Figure 02(b)) may be viewed as involving a conditional income subsidy, where the maximum subsidy amount i s constrained to an amount equal to the expenditure on housing, PX*QX, and thus may range between zero and PX*QX. The common forms of "constrained cash" subsidy follow the Housing Gap and Rent Conditioned Housing Gap formulas, as outlined in Carlton and Ferreira (1977, pp222-224). The standard Housing Gap formula is actually an "income" subsidy and requires the inclusion of a consumption constraint. It i s formulated as a. Subsidy = POL1*(POL3 - POL4*AY) subject to EXPEND > SUB where AY < POL3/POL4 and AY i s the unsubsidized income l e v e l EXPEND i s the per-period expenditure on "housing" services and POL1, POL3 and POL4 are parameters of the program where 0< POL1 <1., 0< POL3 and 0< POL4< 1. 23 That i s , the recipient recevies a maximum of either P0L1*P0L3 or the i r expenditure on housing, EXPEND, at a zero income, with the subsidy then declining as a percent of the increasing income. If the expenditure constraint i s not binding then the formulation acts as a pure "income" transfer formula. The self earmarking Rent Conditioned Housing Gap formula i s a composite of an "in-kind" and an "income" formulation. It i s formulated as b. Subsidy = POL1 * (P0L2*EXPEND - P0L4*AY) for EXPEND < POL3/POL2 P0L1 * (P0L3 - P0L4*AY) for EXPEND > POL3/POL2 where AY < POL2*EXPEND/POL4 and AY is the unsubsidized income l e v e l EXPEND is the per-period expenditure on "housing" services and POL1, P0L2, P0L3 and POL4 are parameters of the program where 0< POL1 < 1., 0< POL2 <1., 0< P0L3 and 0< POL4< 1. That i s , for recipients with expenditures, EXPEND, less than POL3/POL2 the subsidy amount i s constrained by th e i r expenditure on housing; for expenditures greater than POL3/POL2 the subsidy amount i s constrained by the parameter P0L3 and acts as an "income" subsidy. Again, in modeling the support of a minimum quantity, QX, the subsidy s p e c i f i c a t i o n becomes independent of the formulation and the amount of the subsidy i s given by the lesser of; Subsidy = YS - AY PX*QX 24 where, YS is the income l e v e l at which the household would choose to consume QX units of "housing" services AY i s the unsubsidized income le v e l PX*QX i s the market rent for QX units of "housing" services. "Direct product" subsidy programs may t h e o r e t i c a l l y take one of four general forms: the difference l i e s in what factor of the increase in "housing" expenditure i s subsidized. The actual instrument of the transfer may be common across each of the four general forms. The most stringent form of direct product intervention i s one that leaves the supported household i n d i f f e r e n t between consuming the unsubsidized and subsidized quantity of housing. This form i s termed a "direct constrained" subsidy in Figure 02(c). In such situations the household would be forced to reduce i t s consumption of other goods and services in order to provide some of the additional increase in housing consumption. This i d e a l i s t i c formulation i s modeled by providing the household with the additional units of housing at a price discount such that the decline in u t i l i t y from the lo s t consumption of other goods and services i s matched by the consumption of additional housing funded from the subsidy and the reduced expenditure on other goods and services. This scenerio provides the most cost e f f i c i e n t form of intervention considered. The second form, termed a "direct quantity" subsidy (Figure 02(d)), involves providing the household with an additional quantity of "housing" services d i r e c t l y . This form of intervention requires the household to pay for any resulting price i n f l a t i o n associated with their unsubsidized l e v e l of consumption through the reduction of the consumption of other goods and services. 25 Acceptable reductions in the consumption of other goods and services range from zero to an amount corresponding to that under an equivalent "direct constrained" subsidy. Correspondingly, the change in u t i l i t y w i l l range from a maximum as derived from consuming an' additional (QX-QJ) units of "housing" services to a minimum of zero when the subsidy is equivalent to a "direct constrained" formulation. The subsidy amount is s p e c i f i e d as; Subsidy = (QX-QJ) * PX where, QX i s the supported quantity of "housing" services PX i s the price per unit of "housing" services at the supported l e v e l QJ i s the unsubsidized quantity of "housing" services consumed The t h i r d form of "direct product" intervention involves the si t u a t i o n where a household receives a subsidy equal to the increase in expenditure involved. In this situation the household maintains the same u t i l i t y from consuming other goods and services but increases i t s u t i l i t y from consuming housing. The subsidy amount involved i s given by Subsidy = QX*PX - QJ*PJ where, QX*PX i s the subsidized expenditure QJ*PJ i s the unsubsidized expenditure The f i n a l form, the "direct p r i c e " subsidy, detailed in Figure 02(e), involves the more general form of dir e c t product policy where the subsidy per unit of "housing" services consumed corresponds to a reduction in either operating and/or c a p i t a l cost. Examples would included a 100% mortgage loan subsidized at a below market rate or a front end c a p i t a l subsidy (below market land) that reduces per period payments. The subsidy amount can range between zero and PX*QX. In formulating t h i s option i t i s considered that the household faces the reduced prices with i t s unsubsidized income. This results in a leakage to the consumption of other goods and services, but for a given l e v e l of "housing" services consumption the t o t a l u t i l i t y l e v e l w i l l be constant across a l l alternative dwellings. Under a general s p e c i f i c a t i o n ; Subsidy = a* QX*PX where, "a" i s the decimal percentage reduction in the price offered. In modifying the four alternatives to consider the support of a minimum quantity QX at a market price PX, the following conditions e x i s t . With a "direct constrained" subsidy the subsidy amount i s obtained by ca l c u l a t i n g the price reduction required to match subsidized and unsubsidized u t i l i t y from housing and other goods and services. The subsidy amount i s calculated as Subsidy = a* PX*QX where, "a" i s the decimal percent reduction in the price That i s , the household is prepared to pay PX for QX units of "housing" services i f receiving a subsidy of a*PX*QX. With a "direct quantity" subsidy the subsidy amount corresponds to the required additional quantity of "housing" services times the market price PX and is spe c i f i e d as Subsidy = (QX - QJ) * PX where, QJ i s the unsubsidized quantity of "housing" service consumed 27 That i s , the household receives PX*(QX-QJ) towards an additional expenditure of PX*QX-PJ*QJ and thus must pay an additional amount (PX-PJ)*QJ by reducing the consumption of other goods and services. Under a "direct expenditure" subsidy the subsidy amount i s calculated as the difference between the subsidized and unsubsidized expenditures. Subsidy = QX * PX - QJ * PJ where, QJ i s the unsubsidized quantity of "housing" service consumed PJ i s the price associated with consuming at the unsubsidized l e v e l . To derive the "direct p r i c e " subsidy the procedure involves solving for "a" the required discount from the market price PX, when the quantity demanded i s QX. This involves c a l c u l a t i n g the price at which the household would consume QX units of services at i t s unsubsidized income l e v e l . The subsidy involved i s then given by Subsidy = a * PX * QX where, "a" i s the decimal percent reduction in price required for the household to consume QX units of "housing" services. In evaluating the alternative approaches to intervention one must either quantify both "welfare" and "resource" i n e f f i c i e n c i e s or quantify the "resource" i n e f f i c i e n c i e s associated with a given le v e l of "welfare" i n e f f i c i e n c y . Since no quantitative tools exist that allow one to price "welfare" i n e f f i c i e n c i e s , the l a t t e r approach is employed in t h i s thesis. 28 "Resource" i n e f f i c i e n c i e s are measured as the difference in cost associated with achieving the same p a r t i a l state of the world under alternative forms of market intervention. Short run ine f f i c e n c i e s can be grouped in accordance with those associated with the mode of intervention and those associated with the state of the market being subsidized. Not only w i l l these i n e f f i c i e n c i e s vary with the mode of intervention but also with the form of the low-income concern being addressed and from housing market to housing market. In order to obtain "equivalent" p a r t i a l states under alternative p o l i c y scenarios, consideration can be made of the r e l a t i v e subsidization costs to support the same minimum quantity of "housing services" consumption. In p a r t i c u l a r , the concept of re d i s t r i b u t i o n in terms of a minimum "income" l e v e l i s defined as the income at which a household would by choice consume the defined minimum quantity of "housing services". A recipient under a "direct quantity" policy would maintain current l e v e l s of consumption of other goods and services while consuming the defined minimum quantity of housing services. A "direct constrained" scenario involves forcing the household to consume the defined minimum quantity of housing services at i t s unsubsidized u t i l i t y l e v e l . These three alternatives are detailed in Figure 03. 29 o f g o o d s X O 4-\ \ XH Q M Figure 03: Consumption Level Changes Under Alternative P o l i c i e s Under an assertion that Canadians have the right to adequate and affordable housing one w i l l see a continuing government involvement in housing markets in Canada. In order to quantify the potential r e l a t i v e cost to the government of supporting minimum housing standards under a l t e r n a t i v e forms of intervention six general p o l i c y scenerios have been detailed in t h i s chapter. The next four chapters d e t a i l a housing market simulation model developed to aid in quantifying these costs. The f i n a l two chapters present the simulation results derived for eight CMAs and general conclusions for Canada as a whole. 30 CHAPTER 03: MODELING POLICY ALTERNATIVES In the study of housing markets one does not fin d the single homogeneous market of neo-classical economics. In fact the most d i s t i n c t i v e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c of a housing market i s i t s d i v e r s i t y . This d i v e r s i t y results in a series of overlapping submarkets, each d i f f e r e n t i a b l e via c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s such as structure type and age, location, tenure use, financing and the a p p l i c a b i l i t y of subsidy programs. Therefore no two housing units can be considered i d e n t i c a l and to obtain completely homogeneous submarkets one would have to model a housing market by i s o l a t i n g each housing unit into i t s own separate, but interdependent, submarket. Such a breakdown would lead to insurmountable a n a l y t i c a l problems. In modeling a housing market one must then s t r i k e a balance between the "homogeneity" of submarkets and a n a l y t i c a l " s i m p l i c i t y " . A number of models have been developed in the U.S. to analyse urban problems, each focusing on a dif f e r e n t problem area. A review of the four most successful; Disaggregated Residential Allo c a t i o n Model, Engle-Rothenberg Model, Urban Institute Model and the NBER Model (see Ingram (1977) for d e t a i l s of these models) indicated that the Urban Institute (Ul) Housing Model provides the most suitable theoretical and a n a l y t i c a l basis for the derivation of a Canadian policy oriented model (See Hobart and Johnston (1979)). The major advantages afforded by the Ul model are that the data employed to make i t operational at an empirical l e v e l are available from published sources and the model i s readily adaptable for policy simulations. 31 3.1 The Urban Institute's Model The Ul model, detailed by De Leeuw and Struyk (1975), i s concerned with the changes over a decade in housing quality and household location within a metropolitan area. DeLeeuw and Struyk (1975, p12) note that t h i s capsule description of their model contains four key phrases; "decade changes", "housing quality", "household location" and "within a metropolitan area". Each of these phrases serves to dis t i n g u i s h the model from other models or studies; in pa r t i c u l a r from short run explanations of housing market dynamics, from location-free theories of the f i l t e r i n g process, and from macroeconomic analyses with a national focus. The model makes use of conventional assumptions that households seek to maximize their s a t i s f a c t i o n and that owners seek to maximize the i r p r o f i t s in a formulation that emphasizes two ch a r a c t e r i s t i c s that d i s t i n g u i s h housing from most other goods: the d u r a b i l i t y of housing and the inescapable link between housing and the neighbourhood environment. The model in effect represents the metropolitan^housing market as a set of demand and supply functions for clos e l y related submarkets. Since the submarkets are not perfect substitutes, solution prices need not be the same: on the other hand prices w i l l be c l o s e l y related as substitution i s of s u f f i c i e n t strength to cause vacancies or over-occupancy i f the price in any submarket i s out of l i n e . The matching process simulated by the model's solution algorithm r e f l e c t s these possible substitutions. In essence t h i s model is a microeconomic perspective on households and owners contracting for housing services with the ch a r a c t e r i s t i c s of an individual metropolitan area captured through "model zones", "model households" and "model dwellings". In p a r t i c u l a r , the sp a t i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the metropolitan area are represented in the form of several r e s i d e n t i a l zones that r e f l e c t variations in the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the housing stock, income l e v e l s and distance from the Central Business D i s t r i c t (CBD). Each model household represents several hundred or thousand actual households as of the end of a decade. The exact number depends on the end-of-decade size of the metropolitan area to which the model i s being applied. Each household i s allocated to one of several "household types" ( r e f l e c t i n g age and family status) and assigned an average income. Based on these two c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , the behaviour of the households consists of deciding which of a l l possible dwellings, including a new dwelling at any desired l e v e l of services (subject to a minimum constraint), to occupy. A model dwelling, l i k e each model household, also represents several hundred or thousand actual cases and i s characterized by the r e s i d e n t i a l zone in which i t i s located and the quantity of housing services which i t supplies at the start of the decade. The le v e l of housing services - one of the basic concepts of the model - refers to an index of a l l things of value which a physical structure provides; space, shelter, privacy, design and a host of others. It does not refer to the neighbourhood c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s associated with each dwelling; these are measured by the attributes of the r e s i d e n t i a l zone in which the dwelling i s located. The model allows an unlimited volume of new construction within a separate homogeneous r e s i d e n t i a l zone at a fixed price per unit of housing service. The only constraint on new construction i s that the dwellings must provide at least a minimum le v e l of services. 33 A solution to the model involves a decade-end representation of the housing stock. This solution i s based on a set of supply and demand parameters, a representation of the housing market at the start of the decade and a representation of housing demand at decade-end. The predicted market conditions are derived via an assignment procedure which sets unit prices such that no household has incentives to relocate and owners have no incentive to provide an alternative quantity of housing services. The three components of t h i s model are the demand functions, the supply functions and the solution procedure. In deriving the demand functions each household i s assigned a u t i l i t y function represented by; Uij = H i j , X i j , Z ,Z ,Z 1 2 3 where Uij i s the t o t a l u t i l i t y household " i " derives when consuming the housing services provided by dwelling " j " . Hij i s the p a r t i a l u t i l i t y derived X i j i s the p a r t i a l u t i l i t y derived from the consumption of non-housing goods and services Z1,Z2,Z3 are the p a r t i a l u t i l i t i e s associated with the zone in which dwelling " j " i s located The p a r t i a l u t i l i t i e s associated with housing and non-housing goods and services are based on a concept of a minimum acceptable consumption l e v e l which resembles the constant term in u t i l i t y functions of the so-called l i n e a r expenditure form. That i s , u t i l i t y i s measured as a function of the excess over these minimum levels rather than the excess over zero. Demand functions derived from such u t i l i t y functions are not suitable for parameter estimation by regression; parameter values must be estimated via a c a l i b r a t i o n process in which model solutions under various parameter values are compared to actual decadal changes. On the supply side, p r o f i t maximizing behaviour on the part of owners i s assumed to imply linear supply curves (of varying slope for each type of housing unit) as an approximation to the price-quantity re l a t i o n s h i p that governs the behaviour of owners over a ten year period. The solution algorithm associated with the o r i g i n a l model (DeLeeuw and Struyk (1975, pp33-55)) i s based on an approach that allows the owners to act as monopolists extracting the maximum price possible from households. An alternative stacked assignment solution algorithm proposed by McRae (1978) employs a competitive behaviour assumption: the solution price-quantity corresponds to the interception of the supply and demand functions. (See Hobart and Johnston (1979, pp14-20) for a review of these two algorithms.) The model i s conceptually simple and while assuming conveniently simple forms for household preferences and dwelling supply curves i t does capture many important aspects of pa r t i c u l a r interest in formulating housing subsidy p o l i c i e s (Carlton and Fer r e i r a (1977, p227)). In p a r t i c u l a r , i t distinguishes several types of households and dwellings, allows for neighbourhood and access e f f e c t s in household preferences, separates changes in price from changes in quantity of housing consumption and considers a continuous range of household incomes. The model also allows for d i f f e r e n t supply behaviour on the part of owners located in d i f f e r e n t q u a l i t y submarkets and makes e x p l i c i t that the market equilibrium depends on the underlying d i s t r i b u t i o n of purchasing power and q u a l i t y of housing and on the competition between neighbouring qu a l i t y submarkets. 35 In summary the basic and key theore t i c a l features underlying the model framework are: 1. Market segmentation - submarkets by quantity of housing services and locati o n a l differences. 2. Imperfect Substitutes - submarkets close but not perfect substitutes. This w i l l result in prices d i f f e r i n g between submarkets and allow p o l i c i e s to have a larger impact on some submarkets than others. 3. D u r a b i l i t y - separation of housing supply into new and existing stock with the l a t t e r accounting for most of the supply even in a ten-year span. 4. E l a s t i c new supply - extremely e l a s t i c supply over a 10 year period, with the construction industry building those dwellings demanded. 5. I n e l a s t i c existing Supply - supply of housing services from existing dwellings is far from being perfectly e l a s t i c . 6. Supply trends - services from exi s t i n g dwellings change very slowly. 7. Demand trends - assumption of a growth of real income per household over time, which i s responsible for a normal excess demand for high qu a l i t y units and a more variable outcome in the low end of the quality spectrum. 36 3.2 Canadian Version of the Ul Model After implementing their basic model the U.I. undertook tentative development work on a tenure version (de Leeuw and Struyk (1975, p151)). Their reasoning for incorporating the tenure choice was 1. to highlight any s i g n i f i c a n t differences between owner-occupant demand behaviour and tenant demand behaviour, 2. to evaluate the difference in tax treatment, and 3. to support any evidence on the d i f f e r e n t i a l behaviour of landlords and owner-occupiers as suppliers of housing services. Their i n i t i a l incorporation of the tenure d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n was-based on the assignment of f r a c t i o n a l p r o b a b i l i t i e s of ownership to each "model" household. A household's housing consumption choice was then based on a "weighted" household. This approach raises a dilemma inasmuch as owner-occupiers and renters w i l l evaluate the same "model" dwelling d i f f e r e n t l y : the model lacked such a freedom. A l a t t e r reformulation (Andreassi (1978)) involved the exogenous d i v i s i o n of households by type into owner-occupiers and renters but not the dwellings. In addition, incomes were adjusted to r e f l e c t income taxes with the owner-occupier's budget being respecified to include itemized deductions. To implement the model the demand function parameters were simply adjusted to compensate for the reduced income l e v e l s . The other model parameters used were as for the basic model. In implementing the model for Canadian metroploitan areas the use of the computationally more e f f i c i e n t McRae stacked assignment algorithm and the a v a i l a b i l i t y of the comprehensive 1974 Survey of Housing Units cross-sectional data set has allowed the 37 i n c o r p o r a t i o n of s e v e r a l enhancements. These i n c l u d e a new tenure based f o r m u l a t i o n f o r the demand system, an i n c r e a s e i n the degree of r e p r e s e n t a t i o n from 30 or 40 model households to 100 model households and the m o d i f i c a t i o n of the computational procedure to allow the endogenous computation of s e v e r a l a l t e r n a t i v e subsidy forms. The major changes made to the model i n c l u d e ; 1. the r e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of the households from e i g h t to ten type groups that r e f l e c t r e n t a l or owner-occupier mode of occupancy. 2. an 'a p r i o r i ' c l a s s i f i c a t i o n of the "model" d w e l l i n g s as e i t h e r r e n t a l or owner-occupied, 3. the p r o v i s i o n of a f t e r tax incomes as model input i n c l u d i n g imputed income to owner-occupiers from the e q u i t y component of d w e l l i n g value and government t r a n s f e r s , 4. the treatment of owner-occupiers' expenditures not as a " r e n t " but as a "user c o s t " based on a c t u a l c o s t data, 5. the s p e c i f i c a t i o n of the demand system i n a form that may be d i r e c t l y estimated, and 6. the r e s p e c i f i c a t i o n of the e x i s t i n g stock supply system to r e f l e c t end of decade p r i c e s , not average decade p r i c e s . I t s h o u l d be noted t h a t the r e s t r u c t u r e d model does not have the p o t e n t i a l f o r tenure s w i t c h i n g . Such an implementation has been hampered by both the lack of data on household wealth and s u i t a b l e data from which a s w i t c h i n g f u n c t i o n may be estimated. I n d i c a t i o n s are (Lowry (1979, p89)) that the expected volume of tenure changes would be too small to be of s i g n i f i c a n c e with only 100 model r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s f o r an urban area. 38 CHAPTER 04: The DEMAND SYSTEM In restructuring the demand side of the model three major changes have been incorporated. The f i r s t involves the regrouping of the households into ten a l t e r n a t i v e groups based on tenure; the second involves the use of after tax incomes, while the t h i r d involves the re s p e c i f i c a t i o n of the demand system to incorporate functions for which the parameters may be d i r e c t l y estimated from the 1974 Survey of Housing Units (SHU) dataset. In regrouping the households consideration has been made of tenure, the age of the head, the number of income sources and the presence of children. Five groups of renters and five groups of owner-occupiers are created. Within each tenure set one group i s assigned to the elderly (65 and over). The other four groups are c l a s s i f i e d by the number of sources of income; single source or two or more sources and whether or not the household has children, as indicated in Figure 04. Type 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 head's age 65 + <65 <65 <65 <65 65+ <65 <65 <65 <65 "Y" sources S/M S M S M S/M S M S M children Y/N No No Yes Yes Y/N No No Yes Yes tenure rent rent rent rent rent o-o o-o o-o o-o o-o note: S/M indicates both single and multiple income sources : S indicates single income source : M indicates multiple income sources : Y/N denotes either option included : rent denotes renters; o-o denotes owner-occupier Figure 4:01 Household Type Groups 39 The main considerations in forming these groups were with regard to preferences for "housing" services, e l i g i b i l i t y for subsidies and household s i m i l a r i t y for taxation c a l c u l a t i o n s . With the large variation between CMAs in terms of the percentage s p l i t between rented and owner-occupied dwellings, the groupings were formulated to ensure at least four percent of the t o t a l households were included for each household type across the eight CMAs included in the study. In addition to using regrouped households the modified model s h i f t s the emphasis from the household's gross income to the net (disposable) income through the computation of taxes. The household's income taxes are calculated exogeneous to the simulation process and a l l subsidies associated with policy simulations are assumed to be net of taxes. The most s i g n i f i c a n t change made to the model involves changing the u t i l i t y function associated with the household's preferences. The u t i l i t y system employed i s that outlined by Christensen, Jorgenson and Lau ( l 9 7 5 ) which they refer to as a direct transcendental logarithmic u t i l i t y function, or more simply a d i r e c t translog u t i l i t y function. Under such a formulation the demand system has been estimated i n d i r e c t l y through the estimation of expenditure share functions based on the household's disposable income. 40 4.1 D e r i v a t i o n of the Expenditure Share The t r a d i t i o n a l approach to f o r m u l a t i n g a demand system i n v o l v e s the s p e c i f i c a t i o n of a system of demand f u n c t i o n s r e l a t i n g the q u a n t i t y of each commodity consumed to t o t a l expenditures and the p r i c e of a l l commodities that are c o n s i s t e n t with u t i l i t y m aximization. As noted by C h r i s t e n s e n , Jorgensen and Lau (1975, p367), a d d i t i v e and homothetic u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n s have been important i n f o r m u l a t i n g t e s t s of the theory of demand; * I f the u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n i s homothetic, expenditure p r o p o r t i o n s are independent of t o t a l e xpenditure. I f the u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n i s a d d i t i v e and homothetic, e l a s t i c i t i e s of s u b s t i t u t i o n among a l l p a i r s of commodities are constant and equal.' The u t i l i t y system used i n s p e c i f y i n g the demand f u n c t i o n s f o r the Ul model f o l l o w s from the work of Houthakker (i960) and Stone (1954). As s p e c i f i e d , i t r e t a i n s the assumption of a d d i t i v i t y while dropping the assumption of h o m o t h e t i c i t y . C h r i s t e n s e n , Jorgensen and Lau introduce a r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of a u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n that r e l a x e s both the a d d i t i v i t y and h o m o t h e t i c i t y assumptions. T h e i r approach c o n s i s t s of r e p r e s e n t i n g the u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n by f u n c t i o n s that are q u a d r a t i c i n the logarithms of the q u a n t i t y consumed. The r e s u l t i n g u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n s w i l l p r o v i d e a l o c a l second order approximation to any u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n . These u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n s allow expenditure shares to vary with the l e v e l of t o t a l expenditure and permit a g r e a t e r v a r i e t y of s u b s t i t u t i o n p a t t e r n s among commodities than those from f u n c t i o n s based on a constant and equal e l a s t i c i t y of s u b s t i t u t i o n among a l l p a i r s of commodities. C h r i s t e n s e n , Jorgensen and Lau r e f e r to t h e i r r e p r e s e n t a t i o n of the d i r e c t u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n as the d i r e c t t r a n s c e n d e n t a l 41 logarithmic u t i l i t y function, or more simply, the d i r e c t translog u t i l i t y function: the u t i l i t y function i s a transcendental function of the logarithms of quantites consumed. S i m i l a r l y , they refer to their representation of the i n d i r e c t u t i l i t y function as the indirect translog u t i l i t y function. While i t is normal for the consumption decision to involve the derivation of the quantity, given the prices faced by the consumer, with housing consumption the process may be reversed. This arises from the basic i n a b i l i t y of the consumer to draw a fine d i s t i n c t i o n between units of "housing" services and variations in the price per unit of "housing" service. For t h i s reason, t h i s study focuses on the direct translog u t i l i t y system where expenditure shares are estimated in terms of the quantities consumed, as opposed to an indirect system where the expenditure shares are estimated in terms of the r a t i o of prices to t o t a l expenditure. In o u t l i n i n g the derivation of the expenditure share equations under a d i r e c t translog u t i l i t y function, this next section follows cl o s e l y Christensen, Jorgensen and Lau (1975, pp 369-370). With the housing market model i t i s assumed that only two commodities are consumed; "housing" services and other goods and services which includes savings. Thus the d i r e c t u t i l i t y function, U, can be represented in the form: ln(U) = ln(U(X1,X2)) where, X1 = the quantity of "housing" services consumed X2 = the quantity of other goods and services consumed 42 The consumer maximizes u t i l i t y subject to the budget constraint; P1*X1 + P2*X2 = M ...4.01 where, P1 = the price per unit of "housing" service P2 = the price per unit of other goods and services M = t o t a l expenditure The f i r s t order conditions for a maximium of u t i l i t y can then be written as; dln(U) P1*X1 ^ ln(U) P2*X2 _ m u * . _ = mu* d l n ( X l ) U •5in(X2) U ...4.02 where, mu = the marginal u t i l t y of income Considering the consumption of "housing" services, from the budget constraint one can obtain the relationship: J mu 1 o" ln(U) 6 ln(U) o~ U M o l n ( X l ) dln(X2) ...4.03 so that, ain(U) P1*X1 i ln(O) o"ln(U) = * r + ] o l n ( X l ) M o l n ( X l ) dln(X2) ...4.04 To preserve symmetry with their treatment of the i n d i r e c t u t i l i t y function, Christensen, Jorgensen and Lau approximate the negative of the logarithm of the d i r e c t u t i l i t y function by a function quadratic in the logarithms of the quantities consumed: - ln(U) = AO + Z hi * ln(Xi) 1 + - 1 2 B i j ln(Xi) * ln(Xj) ...4.05 2 U , j = 1,2) Using t h i s form for the u t i l i t y function they obtain; Pi*Xi Ai + Z,Bij*ln(Xi) = £ (Ai + £Bij*ln(Xi)) M ( i , j= 1 ,2) . . .4.06 43 which y i e l d s the expenditure share equations; Pi*Xi Ai + Z B i j * ln(Xj) M Am + £ Bmj * ln(Xj) ...4.07 (i = 1,2) Since these equations for the expenditure shares are homogeneous of degree zero in the parameters, a normalisation of the l a t t e r i s required for estimation. The normalisation used by Christensen, Jorgensen and Lau is to set Am = 2 Ai = -1. Further, the budget constraint implies that: P1*X1 P2*X2 + = 1 M M ...4.08 so that given the parameters of one of the budget share equations, the parameters of the other equation can be detemined from the d e f i n i t i o n s of Ai and Bmi ( i = 1,2). The res u l t i n g expenditure share of "housing" services equation to be estimated i s thus of the form; Ph*XH A1 + B11*ln(XH) + B12*ln(XG) M -1 + Bm1*ln(XH) + Bm2*ln(XG) ...4.09 . where, XH = the quantity of "housing" services consumed XG = the quantity of other goods and sevices consumed Ph = price per unit of "housing" service Pg = price per unit of other goods and services M = t o t a l expenditure or disposable income In estimating the expenditure share equation, consideration must be made of the impact of the household's demographics; such as the age of head of the household, number of children, etc., which are major determinants of household consumption patterns. As noted by Pollak and Wales (1980, p596), the s p e c i f i c a t i o n of t h e o r e t i c a l l y plausible demand systems involving demographic variables can be described in three separate but in t e r r e l a t e d steps: 1. the s p e c i f i c a t i o n of a class of demand systems for every admissible demographic p r o f i l e , 2. the s p e c i f i c a t i o n of those parameters which depend on the demographic variables and those which do not, and 3. the s p e c i f i c a t i o n , for each parameter so dependent, of a functional form r e l a t i n g i t to the demographic variables. For t h i s study the method used in incorporating demographics is controlled by the f i n a l use of the resulting functions in the simulation framework. In p a r t i c u l a r , household demographics are i d e n t i f i e d in the models by household type grouping alone; these being d i f f e r e n t i a t e d by the head's age, the number of income sources and the presence of children. To simplify the operation of the simulation model an independent demand system i s estimated for each of the ten household type groupings in preference to the estimation of a system in which the dependent demographics are i d e n t i f i e d , together with the functional relationships between them and the dependent parameters. The estimation of the expenditure share equation does not allow the computation of the AO parameter d i r e c t l y . In order to assume that AO = 0. the data must be normalised so that the logarithmic values of the mean quantities have zero values. This involves dividing the values of XH and XG by their sample means. This results in the parameter A1 approximating the negative of the mean share and U taking a value of 1.0 at the means. 4 5 4.2 Price E l a s t i c i t y of Demand The derivation of the price e l a s t i c i t i e s for the translog demand system follows from the Allen p a r t i a l e l a s t i c i t y of substitution (see Allen (1949, pp503-505)). Given that x = f( X1,X2,X3;... Xn) for any combination of factors, define Xr f r kr = X1*f1 + X2*f2 + x i * f i . . . X n * f n ( i = 1,2,3, ... n) hence k1 + k2 + k3 + ... + kn = 1 At an equilibrium position, f1, f2, f3 ... fn are proportional to the prices P1, P2, P3 ... Pn of the factors, thus Xi*Pi kr = X1*P1 + X2*P2 + ... + Xn*Pn X1 *P1 M That i s , kr is the proportion of the t o t a l budget (M) spent on the factor Xr. Let F = 0 f 1 f2 f3 . . fn f 1 f 1 1 f 12 f 1 3 f 1n f2 f 2 1 f 22 f 23 . . f 2n fn fn1 fn2 fn3 . . f nn and l e t Frs denote the co-factor of frs in F ( i , j =1,2,3, ... n) 46 X1*f1 + X2*f2 + Denote € i j = + Xn*fn F i j * Xi*Xj ( i / j =1,2,3, ... n) This factor e i j is the p a r t i a l e l a s t i c i t y of substitution, In p a r t i c u l a r , for the two good case fifij = where X1*U1 + X2*U2 * Xi*Xj K*P1*U1 + >-.*X2*U2 Xi*Xj F i j F F i j * X *P1 = U1 and Vs *P2 = U2 In addition, F = 0 U1 U2 = 0 WPI >\P2 U1 U1 1 U1 2 kP1 U1 1 U1 2 U2 U1 2 U22 S p 2 U1 2 U22 From the f i r s t order conditions associated with the di r e c t u t i l i t y funct ion h ln(U) Pi * Xi Ui * Xi = X * = o l n ( X i ) U U Given that the u t i l i t y function is of the form ln(U)=-[A0 + Al*ln(X1) + A2*ln(X2) +0.5*[B11*ln(X1)*ln(X1)+2.*B12*Ln(X1)*ln(X2)+B22*ln(X2)*ln(X2)]] 47 ain(U) A1 + B11*ln(X1) + B12 * ln(X2) o i n ( X l ) -1. + Bm1*ln(X1) + Bm2 * ln(X2) dln(U) A2 + B21*ln ( X l ) + B22 * ln(X2) dln(X2) -1. + Bm1*ln ( X l ) + Bm2 * ln(X2) thus U A1 + B 1 1 * l n ( X l ) + B12 * ln(X2) ^ = * P1 * X1 -1. + Bm1*ln ( X l ) + Bm2 * ln(X2) U A2 + B 2 l * l n ( X l ) + B22 * ln(X2) = * P2 * X2 -1. + Bm1*ln ( X l ) + Bm2 * ln(X2) Define the expenditure shares as Pi * Xi Ai + & B i j ln(Xj) S i _ = = F1 (Xj ) * F2(Xj) M -1 . + TJ Bmj ln(Xj) .4.10 thus where 6 Si 6 F1 d F2 = * F2 + * F1 bxj d x j o x j F1 (-1. + Z Bmj ln(Xj)) F2 = Ai + £,Bij ln(Xj) d F1 h x j giving o Si & X j 0 - SBmj/Xj (-1. + Z Bmj ln(Xj))**2 F2 Xj 2_Bij Xj 1 -(Ai+ S B i j ln(Xj))*Bmj * { + B i j ] Xj *(-1.+ 2,Bmj ln(Xj)) (-1.+ Z Bmj ln(Xj)) Xi *U *Uij - Ui *Xi *Uj Xi *U *Uij - X**2 *Pi*Pj *Xi U **2 U **2 48 Def ine PSUM = -[-1. + Bm1 * ln(X1) + Bm2 * ln(X2)] PSUMi = -[Ai + B i l * ln(X1) + Bi2 * ln(X2)] then }\**2 *Pi*Pj U Uij = + — - * [ U X i Xj * PSUM -PSUMi * Bmj ] * [ + B i j ] PSUM The co-factors in F are F1 1 = F21 = U1 1 U1 2 SPI >|P2 U1 2 U22 U1 2 U21 F12 = F22 = ^P1 U1 2 0 SPI ^P2 U1 2 SPI U22 giving the determinants Fl 1 | F12 | F21 | F22 | U1 1 * U22 >1P1 * U22 J*,P1 * U22 0 * Ul 1 U12 * U12 )\P2 * U12 >\P2 * U21 SPI * >IPI The own price e l a s t i c i t y i s then given by 6 1 1 !h * P1 * X1 + * P2 * X2 X1 * X2 | F1 1 I F ...4.11 49 4.3 Income E l a s t i c i t y of Demand To derive the income e l a s t i c i t y of demand we require the percentage change in the quantity associated with a given percentage change in income: the l a t t e r being represented by the after tax budget constraint M. Working from f i r s t p r i n c i p l e s we take the general expenditure share equation; Pi * Xi Ai + £Bij * ln(Xj) M -1. + £Bmi * ln(Xj) Factorizing -Pi * Xi + Pi * Xi * Bmi * ln(Xi) = M * Ai + M * B i j * ln(Xj) Taking the total differential -Pi * & X i + Pi * hxi * Bmi * ln(Xi) + Pi * Xi *Z B m i * A l n ( X i ) M * Ai + Ai + AM * B i j * ln(Xj) + M * Z.Bij * A l n ( X j ) giving £»Xi Xi**2 * [ - p i * x i + Pi*Xi*Bmi * ln(Xi) + * Pi * ZBmi* A l n ( X i ) ] Xi A Xi £ > M M**2 * [ M * Ai + M * B i j * ln(Xj) + * Z,Bij * A l n(Xj) ] M A M giving A X i / Xi M / M [Ai + Z B i j * ln(Xj) + * £Bij * ^ l n ( X j ) ] M M * . Pi * Xi A x i [-1 + ZBmi * ln(Xi) + * Z,Bmi * £ ± l n { X i ) ] Xi 50 With s t a t i c analysis, i t i s assumed that the other quantities are constant thus A l n(Xj) = 0 when j not equal i . thus [Ai + ^ B i j * ln(Xj) + * B i i * & l n ( X j ) ] M [-1 + SBmi * ln(Xi) + * Bmi * A l n(Xi) ] Xi ...4.12 With the Ul's model formulation the i m p l i c i t income e l a s t i c i t y is one. This formulation degenerates to such an i m p l i c i t e l a s t i c i t y i f i t i s assumed that Bmi = 0 and ALn(Xi) =0 as follows. The income e l a s t i c i t y i s given as [Ai + 2-Bij * ln(Xj) + * B i i * A l n(Xj) ] M £ y = [-1 + ZBmi * ln(Xi) + * Bmi * £>ln(Xi) ] Xi with Bmj = 0, £>ln(Xj) = 0. M [Ai + Z B i j * ln(Xj)] e y = * Pi * Xi -1 . but under the conditions that Bmi =0, ln(Xj) = 0 from Equation 4.10 X i * P i -[ Ai + £Bi j ln(Xj ) ] = M thus £y = 1 . To test that the income e l a s t i c i t i e s are s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t from one (Bm1, Bm2 not equal to 0) the share equations can be re-estimated under the constraint that Bm1 = Bm2 = 0 and the value of the l i k e l i h o o d functions for the constrained and unconstrained 51 estimates are compared employing a test s t a t i s t i c based on the li k e l i h o o d r a t i o " r " where: maximum li k e l i h o o d value (constrained) r = maximum li k e l i h o o d value (unconstrained) ...4.13 This l i k e l i h o o d r a t i o is the r a t i o of the maximum value of the li k e l i h o o d function L for the share equation subject to the r e s t r i c t i o n s , to the maximum value of the l i k e l i h o o d function for the equation without r e s t r i c t i o n . For normally d i s t r i b u t e d disturbances the li k e l i h o o d r a t i o i s equal to the ra t i o of the determinant of the r e s t r i c t e d estimator of the variance-covariance matrix of the disturbances to the determinant of the unrestricted estimator, each raised to the power -(n/2) (Christensen, Jorgenson and Lau (1975, p379)). The test s t a t i s t i c i s based on minus twice the logarithm of the l i k e l i h o o d r a t i o . Under the n u l l hypothesis t h i s test s t a t i s t i c i s di s t r i b u t e d asymptotically, as chi-square with the degrees of freedom equal to the number of r e s t r i c t i o n s . 52 4.4 Estimating the Expenditure Share Functions The estimation of the expenditure share function requires detailed data on household expenditures on housing and other goods and services. The only available source of such information on a consistent basis for Canadian CMAs i s the 1974 Survey of Housing Units (SHU) data prepared by Census Canada for the Central (now Canada) Mortgage and Housing Corporation. This dataset involves individual records for approximately 3000 s t a t i s t i c a l l y selected households for each of 23 CMAs. These data are based on a survey performed in 1974 using annual data for 1973 on dwelling and household c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s with the selection of the households included being based on 1971 Census data for the CMA. The major drawback with the SHU data is that no information on t o t a l household expenditures i s av a i l a b l e . One is therefore required to make the assumption that t o t a l expenditure i s equal to the after-tax income of the household, incuding transfer payments and opportunity income from home ownership. Net savings are thus included as other goods and services. (See APPENDIX A2.31 for de t a i l s of the cal c u l a t i o n of the after-tax income.) The monthly expenditure on housing (Ph*XH) i s either the rent or user cost plus opportunity cost. For the renter, housing expenditure i s taken as the reported rent plus any non-inclusive u t i l i t i e s . With owner-occupiers the monthly expenditure is comprised of the reported monthly interest payments, u t i l i t i e s payments, repairs, maintenance and a computed opportunity cost of equity. The most d i f f i c u l t , yet most c r u c i a l step in deriving the monthly expenditure for the owner-occupiers i s the c a l c u l a t i o n of the opportunity cost of equity, where the derivation of the correct rate of return on 53 equity i s the issue. In many publications (Shelton (1968), Laidler (1969), Sunley (1970), Aaron (1970) and Clayton (1974)), the rate has been expressed either as the current mortgage interest rate, a function of the mortgage interest rate or the interest rate on a market bond. For thi s study i t i s assumed that the equity holding (reported expected net sale price minus the mortgage balance) is an additional mortgage to the owner earning tax free interest at the current market rate. Thus, while t h i s amount i s an opportunity cost in cal c u l a t i n g the monthly expenditure i t i s also included as a part of the owner-occupier's after-tax income. The expenditure on other goods and services i s simply the after-tax income (t o t a l expenditure) minus the calculated expenditure on housing. To correspond to the treatment within the simulation model the quantity of housing, "XH", must be expressed in terms of "r e l a t i v e housing" services, under the assumption that the mean of the d i s t r i b u t i o n of "neighbourhood" services i s zero. That i s , the quantity of "housing" services, in decade-end units, w i l l correspond to the mean expenditure on housing. In deriving the individual household values for "XH" from the actual expenditures, two adjustments are made. The f i r s t involves the adjustment for neighbourhood conditions; the second the conversion of 1971 units of quantity to 1961 units of quantity. This necessitates the cal c u l a t i o n of an e f f e c t i v e price that i s a function of the r a t i o of the 1971 expenditures and the 1971 r e l a t i v e "housing" services, together with the mean price index for the decade: the l a t t e r being d i f f e r e n t i a t e d by household type. (See APPENDIX A2.32 for d e t a i l s ) . The quantity of other goods and services ("XG") is then simply the residual expenditure deflated by the CMA's consumer price index for the decade. 54 In deriving the quantities of "housing" services separate rental and owner-occupier hedonic equations were estimated for each CMA u t i l i z i n g the SHU data. A t o t a l of t h i r t y independent variables were considered, with the f i n a l equation incorporating sixteen: six of these variables were taken as representing neighbourhood c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . F u l l d e t a i l s on the included variables and the estimated equations are shown in APPENDIX A2.31. Sample selected s t a t i s t i c s on the input variables for the expenditure share function estimates, by household type, for Vancouver are detailed in Table 01. In deriving these input data a l l households with a computed housing expenditure share greater than 100% were rejected. translog variables Ph*XH M Ph*XH Type 1 mean 454.9 132.7 min 88.3 34.4 max 2038.9 470.7 Type 2 mean 448.5 129.4 min 63.3 39.1 max 2237.5 342.4 Type 3 mean 844.1 162.1 min 83.1 38.3 max 3241.9 465.2 Type 4 mean 587.3 170.8 min 179.7 39.9 max 3241.6 408.9 Type 51 mean 756.8 185.1 min 141.8 46.9 max 2231.9 469.9 Type 6 mean 837.4 329.6 min 238.0 65.2 max 3842.4 949.6 Type 7 mean 764.9 295.5 min 218.7 98.3 max 2090.4 834.4 Type 8 mean 1256.4 327.9 min 371.8 78.1 max 3576.6 838.8 Type 9 mean 1055.1 354.1 min 347.0 55.1 max 3500.6 999.0 Type 10 mean 1110.1 343.5 min 267.1 98.0 max 3538.0 948.5 Ph Pg M 1.532 1.270 0.3533 1.423 1.270 0.0910 1.913 1.270 0.9369 1.564 1.270 0.3568 1.423 1.270 0.0690 1.890 1.270 0.9773 1.593 1.270 0.2316 1.423 1.270 0.0265 1.938 1.270 0.9823 1.654 1.270 0.3466 1.423 1.270 0.0596 1.913 1.270 0.9004 1.665 1.270 0.2768 1.423 1.270 0.0806 1.957 1.270 0.9372 2.305 1.270 0.4544 1.534 "1.270 0.0701 2.505 1.270 0.9593 2.364 1.270 0.4232 1.564 1.270 0.1378 2.565 1.270 0.9298 2.426 1.270 0.2825 1.573 1.270 0.0605 2.584 1.270 0.7154 2.156 1.270 0.3543 1.396 1.270 0.0729 2.284 1.270 0.9135 2.475 1.270 0.3280 1.593 1.270 0.0926 2.596 1.270 0.8770 Table 01: Translog Input Variable S t a t i s t i c s [Vancouver] With the non-linear form of the share function formulation, the only parameter about which an 'a p r i o r i ' statement can be made is A1. When the other four parameters (B11, B12, BM1, BM2) are zero, A1 approximates a housing expenditure to income r a t i o and thus has an absolute value in the region of the mean value for Ph*XH/M i f the independent variables are normalised so that the AO parameter can be assumed to take a value of zero. This normalisation involves d i v i d i n g the respective quantities by their sample means so that their logarithmic values are zero at the means. As detailed in Section 4.11 the expenditure share equations are homogeneous of degree zero and the normalization used involves the inclusion of a -1 value in the denominator of the share equations. As a result of t h i s -1 value the estimated values for A1 w i l l display a negative sign. To provide function estimates suitable for incorporation into the simulation model the estimation of independent equations for each income q u a r t i l e for each of the ten household types for each CMA was required. The need for the groupings results from the r e s t r i c t e d a p p l i c a b i l i t y of the translog function. Small s h i f t s in data values from the mean conditions result in functional i n s t a b i l i t y which makes the use of a single function to represent a range of income levels in the simulation algorithm impossible. Several alternative groupings of the households by income level were evaluated and for t h i s reason three sets of estimates were made for each CMA. The f i r s t involves a single equation for each of the ten household types; the second involves two equations for each household type (grouped by above and below mean incomes) while the t h i r d involves four equations for each household type'(grouped 57 by income q u a r t i l e ) . Results for the three sets of estimates for Vancouver are shown in Tables 02 to 08. The estimates for eight selected CMAs are shown in the APPENDIX as Tables A3-16 through A3-24. (Additional d e t a i l s on the estimation procedure are included in Section A2.32). In considering the estimates for the eight CMAs a l l f i v e hundred and sixty functions estimated had s i g n i f i c a n t c o e f f i c i e n t s and correct signs for the A1, B11 and B12 parameters. The BM1 and BN2 parameters show a variation in sig n i f i c a n c e . This results from a change in the sign on BM2 as the mean expenditure l e v e l increases. Generally, at lower income levels both BM1 and BM2 have s i g n i f i c a n t p o s i t i v e signs but with the increasing mean income through the qua r t i l e s the trend i s for BM2 to become s i g n i f i c a n t l y negative, r e f l e c t i n g an increase in the decline of the housing share that accompanies an increased l e v e l of consumption of other goods and services. L i t t l e interpretation can be placed on the magnitude of the c o e f f i c i e n t s except the A1 parameter whose absolute value r e f l e c t s the estimated expenditure share at the mean. Typ i c a l l y as the income l e v e l increases, the share of the t o t a l expenditure spent on housing declines. With the estimates based on a l l households the estimated share at the mean i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y below the computed mean expenditure r a t i o , r e f l e c t i n g the non-symetrical d i s t r i b u t i o n of the expenditure share with respect to income across a household type grouping. On a household type basis these shares range from a low of 17% to a high of 40% across the CMAs. A comparison of the above and below mean estimates on a household type basis indicates a s i g n i f i c a n t decline in the share with increasing incomes. This 58 decline i s further supported by the estimates based on the income qu a r t i l e groupings. On a household type basis these l a t t e r estimates r e f l e c t a range across the CMAs from a low of 25% through 60% for the lowest income q u a r t i l e , with a range of 11% through 30% for the highest income q u a r t i l e . While rental and owner-occupier q u a r t i l e groupings cannot be d i r e c t l y compared, an i n t e r - q u a r t i l e comparison shows a s i g n i f i c a n t l y higher expenditure share for owner-occupiers than renters with comparable mean incomes. This d i f f e r e n t i a l i s indicated to be as high as 20% but varies noticeably between CMAs and household type groupings. A1 + B11 * ln(XH) + B12 * ln(XG) SHARE = -1. + BM1 * ln(XH) + BM2 * ln(XG) Type A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.3050 -.1757 0.1980 0.0645 -.0152 86.6 253.7 454.9 259 (195.) (28.5) (51.9) (3.59) (2.60) 2 -.3041 -.1986 0.2220 -.0122 0.0376 82.8 251.2 448.5 438 (196.) (20.3) (60.5) (0.49) (7.78) 3 -.2040 -.1839 0.1512 -.1244 -.0447 101.2 537.0 844.1 384 (130.) (20.7) (33.8) (4.27) (6.12) 4 -.3020 -.1689 0.1854 0.1091 -.0303 102.8 328.0 587.3 139 (127.) (15.7) (33.0) (3.81) (3.34) 5 -.2518 -.1370 0.1747 0.2238 -.0325 110.6 450.1 756.8 125 (120.) (12.3) (30.8) (7.74) (3.87) 6 -.4068 -.2117 0.2368 -.0042 0.0554 142.4 399.8 837.4 243 (159.) (18.2) (37;4) (0.15) (6.16) 7 -.3948 -.2344 0.2456 -.0209 0.0425 124.7 369.7 765.0 130 (153.) (16.1) (26.7) (0.60) (3.17) 8 -.2635 -.1430 0.1380 0.1422 -.1672 135.1 731.1 1256.4 281 (221.) (23.2) (25.1) (7.19) (13.5) 9 -.3439 -.1980 0.2062 0.0110 -.0023 164.6 552.0 1055.1 217 (199.) (24.0) (31.1) (0.46) (0.21) 10 -.3146 -.1896 0.1890 0.0508 -.0483 138.6 603.6 1110.0 357 (343.) (33.2) (44.6) (3.24) (6.64) note: [1] " t " values in brackets [2] MQH is the mean quantity of "housing" services MQX is the mean quantity of other goods and services ME i s the mean expenditure # is the number of observations Table 02: Direct Translog-Expenditure Share (Vancouver) [ a l l income levels] A1 + B11 * ln(XH) + B12 * ln(XG) SHARE = -1. + BM1 * ln(XH) + BM2 * ln(XG) Type A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.4069 -.1563 0.2545 0.1451 0.0647 72.7 130.7 277.3 153 (198.) (14.3) (27.4) (4.74) (4.59) 2 -.4285 -.2223 0.3015 -.0035 0.1380 76.1 131.2 285.7 231 (225.) (14.1) (43.7) (0.10) (15.2) 3 -.2703 -.2193 0.2250 -.0825 0.0457 94.3 335.5 574.4 217 (150.) (14.7) (27.8) (1.93) (3.42) 4 -.4105 -.1562 0.2639 0.1493 0.0792 95.9 180.5 385.4 76 (140.) (12.5) (21.9) (5.00) (4.17) 5 -.3109 -.1101 0.2248 0.3347 0.0269 99.8 288.3 530.9 68 (125.) (7.70) (19.3) (8.77) (1.80) 6 -.5261 -.2447 0.3181 -.0513 0.1636 131.1 218.2 580.5 153 (193.) (11.8) (20.1) (1.26) (7.91) 7 -.4583 -.2198 0.3009 -.0156 0.1173 107.4 242.3 558.2 78 (133.) (7.95) (16.1) (0.32) (4.50) 8 -.3112 -.1633 0.1546 0.1048 -.1589 120.6 511.0 940.3 161 (189.) (14.7) (12.0) (3.50) (5.95) 9 -.3712 -.1658 0.2782 0.0872 0.1008 139.4 409.4 817.4 130 (170.) (12.8) (18.0) (2.49) (4.09) 10 -.3646 -.2030 0.2363 0.0338 0.0149 125.8 431.7 857.1 203 (256.) (19.9) (23.6) (1.35) (0.93) note: [1] " t " values in brackets [2] MQH i s the mean quantity of "housing" services MQX i s the mean quantity of other goods and services ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of observations Table 03: Direct Translog-Expenditure Share (Vancouver) [below mean income] A1 + B11 * ln(XH) + B12 * ln(XG) SHARE = -1. + BM1 * ln(XH) + BM2 * ln(XG) Type A1 B11 B12. BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.2356 -.1321 0.1635 0.1867 -.0451 106.7 431.3 711.2 106 (176.) (19.8) (19.7) (6.97) (1.57) 2 -.2233 -.1334 0.0970 0.1255 -.3342 90.3 385.1 630.1 207 (220.) (21.9) (12.3) (5.25) (11.1) 3 -.1577 0.0561 0.1521 0.6029 0.9694 110.2 798.9 1194.5 167 (60.8) (6.68) (61.4) (14.2) (788.) 4 -.2268 -.1305 0.0999 0.1680 -.2895 111.0 505.8 830.9 63 (107.) (9.92) (8.02) (3.34) (5.60) 5 -.2082 -.1410 0.1175 0.1470 -.1495 123.4 643.2 1026.2 57 (98.4) (6.88) (5.90) (1.53) (1.50) 6 -.2970 -.1613 0.1598 0.1022 -.1095 161.5 708.7 1274.1 90 (95.3) (12.1) (10.4) (2.22) (2.78) 7 -.3364 -.1579 0.1699 0.1836 -.1419 150.5 560.8 1075.1 52 (118.) (9.34) (6.43) (3.70) (2.21) 8 -.2240 -.0989 0.1171 0.3104 -.1996 154.51026.4 1680.5 120 (142.) (10.1) (9.23) (7.69) (4.18) 9 -.3128 -.1627 0.1377 0.0960 -.2053 202.3 765.1 1410.3 87 (150.) (8.75) (9.92) (1.77) (5.32) 10 -.2706 -.1468 0.1284 0.1659 -.2215 155.3 830.1 1443.4 154 (612.) (42.4) (23.3) (13.8) (12.5) note: [1] " t " values in brackets [2] MQH i s the mean quantity of "housing" services MQX i s the mean quantity of other goods and services ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of observations Table 04: Direct Translog-Expenditure Share (Vancouver) [above mean income] A1 + B11 * ln(XH) + B12 * ln(XG) SHARE = -1. + BM1 * ln(XH) + BM2 * ln(XG) Type A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.5082 -.1933 0.3239 0.0561 0.1634 65.3 77.3 198.3 78 (207.) (14.2) (20.4) (1.76) (7.12) 2 -.5744 -.2315 0.3552 -.0207 0.2229 70.1 65.9 194.0 110 (204.) (11.9) (28.5) (0.53) (13.7) 3 -.3386 -.1756 0.2897 0.0271 0.1344 89.4 226.6 427.0 108 (122.) (6.74) (16.8) (0.40) (4.94) 4 -.4893 -.1254 0.3258 0.2126 0.1708 90.5 119.7 297.2 41 (133.) (8.64) (17.5) (5.88) (7.05) 5 -.3790 -.1337 0.2729 0.2738 0.0888 95.9 203.8 417.6 31 (135.) (9.87) (22.5) (8.65) (5.94) 6 -.5897 -.1724 0.3858 0.0640 0.2556 117.4 147.9 457.2 71 (122.) (4.15) (11.3) (0.85) (5.75) 7 -.5574 -.2369 0.3527 -.0788 0.1956 99.8 150.0 422.8 34 (117.) (4.28) (11.2) (0.80) (4.55) 8 -.3635 -.1922 0.1825 0.0692 -.1219 113.6 380.6 758.5 73 (138.) (8.60) (6.50) (1.26) (2.13) 9 -.4251 -.1653 0.3425 0.0851 0.1932 129.1 305.6 663.8 57 (140.) (7.56) (12.4) (1.57) (4.41) 10 -.3929 -.1727 0.2728 0.0669 0.0602 110.5 331.0 688.7 87 (153.) (8.89) (15.3) (1.75) (2.15) note: [1] " t " values in brackets [2] MQH i s the mean quantity of "housing" services MQX i s the mean quantity of other goods and services ME i s the mean expenditure # is the number of observations Table 05: Direct Translog-Expenditure Share (Vancouver) [quartile 01] A1 + B11 * ln(XH) + B12 * ln(XG) SHARE = -1. + BM1 * ln(XH) + BM2 * ln(XG) Type A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.3402 -.1139 0.2057 0.2636 -.0663 80.4 186.3 359.5 75 (195.) (8.24) (7.65) (5.37) (1.06) 2 -.3425 -.2149 0.1100 -.0728 -.3401 81.5 190.6 369.1 121 (221.) (12.7) (4.00) (1.57) (5.08) 3 -.2171 -.0721 0.1988 0.4723 0.0750 99.1 443.4 720.5 109 (187.) (4.15) (12.0) (7.66) (1.34) 4 -.3443 -.0912 0.3300 0.2897 0.1877 102.3 251.7 488.7 35 (95.7) (3.47) (11.0) (4.15) (3.55) 5 -.2695 -.1295 0.1355 0.1449 -.3409 103.0 359.1 625.9 37 (87.4) (3.11) (1.37) (0.91) (1.08) 6 -.4871 -.1467 0.4115 0.1129 0.2797 142.9 279.0 687.3 82 (174.) (4.06) (13.5) (1.48) (6.57) 7 -.4031 -.2168 0.2922 -.0978 0.0068 113.4 313.7 662.9 44 (95.8) (3.68) (3.67) (0.71) (0.04) 8 -.2812 -.1500 0.1442 0.0792 -.2269 126.4 619.2 1091.1 88 (134.) (5.96) (3.04) (0.89) (1.71) 9 -.3379 -.1340 0.2846 0.1500 0.0855 147.3 490.4 937.3 73 (127.) (6.98) (7.14) (2.75) (1.39) 10 -.3472 -.1555 0.2885 0.1708 0.1288 137.3 507.3 983.4 116 (205.) (6.60) (5.66) (2.25) (0.92) note: [1] " t " values in brackets [2] MQH i s the mean quantity of "housing" services MQX i s the mean quantity of other goods and services ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of observations Table 06: Direct Translog-Expenditure Share (Vancouver) [quartile 02] A1 + B11 * ln{XH) + B12 * ln(XG) SHARE = 7 -1. + BM1 * ln(XH) + BM2 * ln(XG) Type Al B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.2744 -.1164 0.2307 0.2478 0.1167 98.9 318.9 555.5 67 (185.) (11.4) (11.4) (6.55) (1.90) 2 -.2534 -.1369 0.1076 0.1107 -.4050 85.1 307.1 523.2 133 (201.) (12 . 8 ) (4.46) (2.86) (5.18) 3 -.1656 -.0920 0.0761 0.2552 -.4452 102.4 656.7 999.6 110 (141.) (6.20) (2.28) (3.23) (2.59) 4 -.2663 -.1182 0.1407 0.2364 -.2131 109.1 398.2 691.0 44 (107.) (4.84) (3.09) (2.72) (1.38) 5 -.2339 -.0800 0.2340 0.5284 0.4395 121.4 531.2 879.1 36 (81.5) (2.24) (4.27) (3.55) (2.06) 6 -.3169 -.1431 0.2223 -.0168 -.1579 142.1 542.6 1009.5 60 (85.2) (5.38) (4.75) (0.18) (1.43) 7 -.3495 -.1410 0.2842 0.1973 0.0370 129.3 450.7 881.3 32 (71.0) (3 . 1 8 ) (3.35) (1.37) (0.19) 8 -.2398 -.0863 0.1895 0.3776 0.0128 139.9 840.0 1405.9 75 (115.) (4.53) (4.16) (4.78) (0.09) 9 -.3381 -.3006 -.0144 -.3528 -.7105 179.0 608.6 1162.6 57 (179.) (15.0) (0.41) (5.91) (8.98) 10 -.2786 -.1432 0.1537 0.1984 -.1685 139.6 713.6 1255.0 99 (484.) (17.9) (8.63) (6.69) (2.89) note: [ l ] " t " values in brackets [2] MQH i s the mean quantity of "housing" services MQX is the mean quantity of other goods and services ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of observations Table 07: Direct Translog-Expenditure Share (Vancouver) [quartile 03] A1 + B11 * ln(XH) + B12 * ln(XG) SHARE = -1. + BM1 * ln(XH) + BM2 * ln(XG) Type A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.1866 -.0729 0.0887 0.4145 -.3473 120.2 624.3 978.8 39 (103.) (5.68) (5.43) (7.95) (5.42) 2 -.1894 -.1202 0.0874 0.1517 -.3289 99.5 525.4 822.2 74 (140.) (12.2) (8.33) (3.45) (6.61) 3 -.1322 -.0795 0.0394 0.2580 -.5449 125.31073.5 1570.8 57 (96.3) (9.25) (3.31) (4.56) (6.82) 4 -.1677 -.1101 0.0577 0.2374 -.4817 115.4 755.1 1154.8 19 (53.8) (4.72) (3.19) (2.27) (4.31) 5 -.1700 -.1164 0.0485 0.1375 -.5397 126.8 835.2 1278.4 21 (50.9) (2.66) (1.09) (0.54) (2.03) 6 -.2714 -.1653 0.1511 0.1097 -.1399 200.31040.7 1803.4 30 (295.) (30.9) (24.5) (5.50) (7.58) 7 -.3251 -.1276 0.2229 0.2386 -.0095 184.4 736.9 1385.1 20 (144.) (8.33) (7.33) (5.32) (0.10) 8 -.2059 -.0942 0.1113 0.3190 -.2071 178.81337.1 2138.3 45 (82.1) (7.50) (3.90) (4.93) (1.71) 9 -.2817 -.1319 0.1168 0.1447 -.2997 246.61062.4 1881.0 30 (69.0) (4.07) (4.36) (1.34) (3.85) 10 -.2595 -.1193 0.1462 0.2509 -.1294 183.71040.0 1782.7 55 (477.) (28.9) (25.8) (16.3) (7.74) note: [1] " t " values in brackets [2] MQH i s the mean quantity of "housing" services MQX is the mean quantity of other goods and services ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of observations Table 08: Direct Translog-Expenditure Share (Vancouver) [quartile 04] 66 4.5 Demand E l a s t i c i t i e s . Two sets of e l a s t i c i t i e s have been calculated to indicate the responsiveness of demand to variations in either the household disposable income or the price per unit of "housing" services. To derive the income e l a s t i c i t y i t i s necessary to calculate the percent change in the income l e v e l . The income e l a s t i c i t i e s shown in Table 09 have been computed on a type basis at the mean for each q u a r t i l e , then a l t e r n a t i v e l y at the means for the qu a r t i l e households with above and below mean incomes. At each of the three mean points the computed e l a s t i c i t y i s based on the calculated change in the quantity consumed resulting from a 1% increase in income. This involves assuming that the price i s set at the respective mean and computing the quantities, u t i l i z i n g the estimated expenditure share function, at both the mean and the s h i f t points. The reported e l a s t i c i t i e s are computed u t i l i z i n g Equation 4:12, with the e l a s t i c i t i e s for Vancouver shown in Table 09 and on a CMA basis in APPENDIX Table A3:23. 67 Household Types 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Q01 « mean 0.73 0.78 0.53 0.76 0.67 0.80 0.74 0.60 0.64 0.61 below 0.74 0.78 0.53 0.76 0.69 0 . 8 1 0.74 . 0.60 0.64 0.60 above 0.75 0.79 0.52 0.79 0.71 0.81 0.73 0.59 0.64 0.60 Q02 mean 0.60 0.57 0.46 0.59 0.49 0.71 0.59 0.48 0.56 0.59 below 0.61 0.52 0.54 0.61 0.45 0.71 0.56 0.46 0.55 0.60 above 0.61 0.51 0.54 0.61 0.47 0.71 0.57 0.46 0.55 0.61 Q03 mean 0.47 0.50 0.37 0.50 0.45 0.54 0.61 0.48 0.51 0.52 below 0.51 0.43 0.34 0.50 0.64 0.44 0.61 0.51 0.47 0.52 above 0.52 0.44 0.34 0.50 0.70 0.46 0.61 0.53 0.47 0.52 Q04 mean 0.42 0.39 0.33 0.40 0.39 0.49 0.56 0.41 0.53 0.48 below 0.43 0.36 0.29 0.36 0.33 0.49 0.58 0.43 0.48 0.50 above 0.44 0.35 0.27 0.35 0.33 0.49 0.60 0.44 0.47 0.51 note: 1. "mean" - e l a s t i c i t y base of mean values for a l l household in q u a r t i l e "below" - e l a s t i c i t y base of mean values for a l l household in q u a r t i l e with incomes below the mean "above" - e l a s t i c i t y base of mean values for a l l household in q u a r t i l e with incomes above the mean Table 09: Income E l a s t i c i t i e s (Vancouver) To test for the existence of unity income e l a s t i c i t i e s , the share equations were re-estimated under the r e s t r i c t i o n that BM1=BM2:=0. For these estimates the equation is linear and O.L.S. estimates are s u f f i c i e n t . A test s t a t i s t i c based on the rat i o of the maximum l i k e l i h o o d values is computed. A value computed as twice the difference between the logarithm of the li k e l i h o o d function for the unconstrained (non-linear) model and the logarithm of the l i k e l i h o o d function for the constrained estimates is dist r i b u t e d , asymptotically, as chi-square with two degrees of freedom. The c r i t i c a l values for such a chi-square d i s t r i b u t i o n 68 are given in Table 10. le v e l of signi f icance .10 .05 .025 .010 .005 df 4.61 5.99 7.38 9.21 1 0.60 source: Johnston (1972, p427) Table 10: C r i t i c a l Values for Chi-Square: 2 Degrees of Freedom The logarithms of the l i k e l i h o o d functions and the test s t a t i s t i c s for Vancouver are reported in Table 11. The table columns correspond to the seven alternative estimates for each household type. Corresponding test s t a t i s t i c s on a CMA basis are included as APPENDIX Table A3:24. Of the 320 s t a t i s t i c s tested for the estimates grouped by q u a r t i l e , less than 0.5% indicate an income e l a s t i c i t y that was not s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t from unity at a 99.5% confidence level (test s t a t i s t i c less than 10.60). Of those indicating e l a s t i c i t i e s not s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t from one at the mean, the majority involve owner-occupiers; either elderly or single income source household type groups. 69 ALL BELOW ABOVE Q01 Q02 Q03 Q04 Type 1 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 61 7.03 605.92 22.20 366.50 353.27 26.45 314.68 269.01 91 .33 207.43 180.93 53.01 222.21 189.92 64.58 208.48 173.98 68.98 127.35 103.86 46.98 Type 2 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 917.51 884.34 66.35 525.04 418.23 213.63 615.62 526.40 178.43 258.65 179.53 158.26 340.14 327.34 25.60 390.05 345.16 89.78 233.93 204.92 58.03 Type 3 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 812.03 796.30 31 .45 494. 16 465.32 57.68 284.38 448.61 •328.46 239.61 205.80 67.63 343.49 297.92 91.14 346.76 328.53 36.47 188.78 144.89 87.78 Type 4 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t ic 317.36 303.07 28.58 186.21 172.28 27.85 181.53 147.77 67.54 104.79 "91 . 8 4 25.89 91 .67 84. 1 3 15.08 125.21 107.07 36.28 61 , 52, 18, 05 05 01 Type 5 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 305.33 282.50 45.65 179.73 150. 18 59. 1 0 161.40 142.07 38.67 89.75 66.71 46.08 100 91 18 20 1 0 20 106.38 94.06 24.63 64.25 59.49 9.51 Type 6 normal BM1=BM2=0 stat i st ic 472.04 449.97 44. 1 4 327.43 274.30 106.25 202.05 188. 18 27.72 1 45 1 1 7 57 92 1 7 49 199.46 165.23 68.46 136.06 132.05 8.02 123.05 87.99 70.12 Type 7 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t ic 291.92 286.33 11.17 178.83 163.95 29.76 132.89 125.58 1 4.62 81 .93 67.07 29.71 1 06. 1 1 103.57 5.08 77. 17 75.82 2.69 69, 58, 21 , 43 53 80 Type 8 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t ic 735.88 640.06 191.64 418.99 383.57 70.84 334.74 288.81 91.85 190.44 182.96 1 4.96 233.46 216.96 32.99 207.31 189.39 35.83 129. 1 7 110.58 37. 1 9 Type 9 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t ic 509.87 509.63 0.47 310.76 301.67 18.20 237.97 211.63 52.67 145.32 128.06 34.52 183. 19 179.12 8.14 1 72. 1 7 162.26 19.81 81.61 65.75 31 .72 Type 10 normal BM1=BM2=0 stat i st ic 974.86 943.42 62.87 529.27 528.24 2.06 606.47 472.46 268.03 218.86 216.15 5.41 327.86 324.05 7.62 393.80 339. 15 109.30 235, 154, 161 , 1 4 49 30 Table 11: Test of Unity Income E l a s t i c i t y (Vancouver) [Log Likelihood S t a t i s t i c s ] 70 The computation of the price e l a s t i c i t i e s i s based on equation 4:11, outlined in Section 4.12. The Urban Institute's model r e f l e c t s an i m p l i c i t price e l a s t i c i t y of -1.0. With the translog formulation the price e l a s t i c i t y i s also -1.0 at the mean, but w i l l have an absolute value s i g n i f i c a n t l y greater than 1 for below mean income leve l s and less than 1 for high income l e v e l s . As for the income e l a s t i c i t i e s , the price e l a s t i c i t i e s have been computed on a household type and q u a r t i l e basis with estimates at the q u a r t i l e mean and at the mean for the households with below and above mean incomes. Results for Vancouver are shown in Table 12 while a complete set of results for each CMA i s shown in APPENDIX Table A3:23. HOUSEHOLD TYPES Q01 mean -1.02 -1.01 -below -1.46 -1.95 -above -0.69 -0.64 -Q02 mean below Q04 mean below above note: 1.08 -1.02 -0.99 1.88 -1.45 -1.43 0.83 -0.77 -0.81 8 -1.02 -1.06 -1.01 -1.51 -1 .87 -1.50 -0.74 -0.71 -0.81 -1.03 -1.04 -1.21 -1.31 1 .06 1.15 above -0.90 -0.88 -0.91 -0.95 -1.01 1.00 -1.08 1.12 -1.23 Q03 mean below above -0.86 -0.91 -1.02 -1.05 -1.21 -1.17 •1 .02 -1 .01 -0.95 •1.15 -1.15 -1.07 -0.91 -0.88 -0.85 •1 .08 •1 .29 0.91 1.18 1 .37 1 .02 -0.99 -1.00 -1.00 -0.98 -1.00 -0.99 -1.30 -1.27 -1.25 -1.30 -1.22 -1.35 -0.70 -0.58 -0.67 -0.47 -0.75 -0.57 1.13 1 .28 10 -1 .07 -1.06 -1.52 -1.60 -0.87 -0.86 .04 . 17 1 .08 1.19 1 .03 1.19 -1.02 -0.93 -0.99 -0.91 -1.06 -1.01 -1.05 -1.00 -1.24 -1.13 -1.18 -1.10 -0.89 -0.89 -0.94 -0.90 -1 .02 -0.99 -1.04 -1.00 -1 .32 -1.22 -1.29 -1.21 -0.74 -0.73 -0.73 -0.72 1. "mean" - e l a s t i c i t y base of mean values for a l l household in q u a r t i l e "below" - e l a s t i c i t y base of mean values for a l l household in q u a r t i l e with incomes below the mean "above" - e l a s t i c i t y base of mean values for a l l household in q u a r t i l e with incomes above the mean Table 12: Price E l a s t i c i t i e s (Vancouver) 71 CHAPTER 05: The SUPPLY SYSTEM The supply system for the Urban Institute's model assumes that a l l dwellings are controlled by landlords with owner-occupiers renting to themselves. The formulation takes the quantity of "housing" services that a dwelling supplies at the start of the decade and incorporates a physical depreciation factor to indicate the decade-end quantity available i f no maintenance-repair-renovation work i s undertaken and a price e l a s t i c i t y factor to indicate the marginal changes in maintenence-repair work as the value of the source of a unit bf "housing" service increases. The issue of the responsiveness of the owners of the e x i s t i n g stock to price movements has seen the most detailed discussion under the guise of the " f i l t e r i n g " process. While there have been as many d e f i n i t i o n s of f i l t e r i n g as analysts discussing i t , the most useful d e f i n i t i o n i s based in terms of changes in housing pr i c e s . Weicher (1979, p63) notes that 'It has been argued in the l i t e r a t u r e on f i l t e r i n g that a price decline cannot occur, at least in the long run, because any fai l l in the sales price or rent w i l l ultimately be matched by a decline in the quality of the unit, perhaps through reduced maintenance. The price for housing of a given quality therefore w i l l not change. This conclusion was f i r s t reached by Lowry (1960), who was also the f i r s t analyst to define f i l t e r i n g e x p l i c i t l y as a process of r e l a t i v e price changes for housing of d i f f e r e n t q u a l i t i e s . Restated in more technical terms, his argument i s e s s e n t i a l l y that the long-run supply of housing services, from the existing housing stock, i s i n f i n i t e l y e l a s t i c at points to the l e f t of the i n i t i a l equilibrium position.' The point that this block of l i t e r a t u r e misses i s the impact of d i f f e r e n t i a l price increases over time between d i f f e r e n t components of the housing stock. An owner needs to receive a price per unit equal to his marginal cost (including the necessary 72 maintenance-repairs) to maintain a constant long run supply of "housing" services. With a subsidized housing production process (subsidies directed to new dwellings only) there exists the potential for a substantial d i f f e r e n t i a l to occur between actual supply prices and the true cost of production. Thus, while a f a l l in the per unit of "housing" services price below the nominal marginal cost w i l l result in a decline in the quantity of services provided, the price per unit of service from exi s t i n g structures may f a l l below the marginal cost of providing services from new dwellings without a resulting decline in the quality of the stock. In addition, given the d u r a b i l i t y of the sources of "housing" services, a household can consume the "stock" as well as the "services" for an extended period by providing no maintenance or repairs. The household w i l l pay a price below the normal marginal cost, but w i l l face a declining l e v e l of housing consumption. Given that most people who l i v e in substandard housing do so not just because they are poor but because they are ignorant of or i n d i f f e r e n t to defects that reduce the quantity of "services" provided (Lowry (1979, p93)) t h i s "over" consumption can occur for an extended period (twenty years plus) and provides a s i g n i f i c a n t proportion of the t o t a l "housing" services in a society. In formulating the supply system the potential must exist for households to consume housing at a price below the normal "marginal" cost. On the other hand the potential for a household to increase the quantity of "services" provided by a dwelling i s constrained by physical factors such as the structure type and property boundaries and regulatory factors such as zoning and building codes. With sources of rental "housing" services based most frequently on 73 multiple unit structures the only real potential for increasing the quantity of services provided w i l l exist only i f the structure has previously been allowed to physically depreciate. For detached owner-occupier structures the potential for extensions and remodeling i s much greater and consequently owners w i l l be more responsive to price increases. With condominium ownership, given the multiple unit structures and an additional p o l i t i c a l l e v e l , the potential for increasing the quantity provided becomes even less than with rental structures. Thus while the reduction in quality w i l l be slow and r e l a t i v e l y uniform, increases in quantity w i l l t ypically.be lumpy and less uniformly d i s t r i b u t e d across a submarket. Consequently one would expect non-symmetrical responses to alternative " r e a l " price increases and decreases. Within a long run context these changes w i l l r e f l e c t a l t e r n a t i v e l y as average nominal price increases above or below increases in the marginal operating cost and one would thus expect discontinuous supply functions. Hence, in formulating a supply system the functions should r e f l e c t the potential to supply decade-end quantities ranging from a sit u a t i o n where the dwelling is depreciating without maintenance and repairs through to situations where the dwelling supplies more than the decade-start quantity as a result of renovations and remodeling a c t i v i t y , with independent e l a s t i c i t i e s above and below the normal marginal operating cost. The formulation of r e a l i s t i c yet e f f i c i e n t ( s u p p l y functions for the model i s hampered by both a lack of theoretical development and the lack of suitable data sets from which i t is possible to d i f f e r e n t i a t e between price and quantity changes over time. The following section d e t a i l s two alternative theore t i c a l formulations, 74 s t r u c t u r e d to enable the d e r i v a t i o n of f l e x i b l e supply f u n c t i o n s , that were e m p i r i c a l l y t e s t e d but were not s u i t a b l e f o r implementation because of a l a c k of a p p r o p r i a t e d a t a . The subsequent s e c t i o n d e t a i l s the compromise systems implemented f o r the p o l i c y s t u d i e s . 75 5.1 Alternative Theoretical Supply Systems Following the approach u t i l i z e d for the demand system wherein the demand function was based on a translog representation, two alternative formulations for estimating a supply system have been considered. The U.I. formulation assumes that a l l dwellings are controlled by landlords with owner-occupiers renting to themselves. The approaches formulated here assume that a l l occupants control their dwellings and are responsible for the production of "housing" services in addition to other services such as domestic services, income generating services and entertainment services. That i s , the household provides both "human" and "housing" services from which they derive a p r o f i t . As such, t h i s formulation is applicable only to owner-occupiers. The household's production function i s represented by the general form Y (QHS, QOS, K) ...5.01 where, QHS represents the quantity of "housing" services produced QOS represents the quantity of a l l other non- housing service including personal produced. K represents the household's c a p i t a l holding of "housing" services. It i s assumed that there exists a separable function for "housing" services such that the production function can be represented by the form Y1(QHS, K) * Y2(QOS) ...5.02 Further, i t i s assumed that the household's p r o f i t function * associated with the production of services can be represented by the translog form 76 In ( p r o f i t ) = LO + L1*ln(u) + L2*ln(K) + 0.5 H11*ln(u)*ln(u) + H12*(ln(u)*ln(K)) + 0.5*H22*ln(K)*ln(K) ...5.03 where, u represents the per period cost associated with the production of QHS units of "housing" services K represents the household's c a p i t a l holding of "housing" services at period s t a r t . By taking the logarithmic p a r t i a l derivatives d l n ( p r o f i t ) / d ln(u) we find o l n ( p r o f i t ) o ( p r o f i t ) u = * 6ln(u) ^ (u) p r o f i t QHS * u p r o f i t giving QHS * u = L 1 + H 1 1 * in(u) + H12 ln(K) p r o f i t ...5.04 To obtain the supply system, the parameters of the translog p r o f i t share function are estimated from th i s semilogarithmic equation via ordinary least squares. It i s assumed that the translog form i s an exact representation of the share equation: any deviations in the shares are assumed to be the result of errors in maximization behaviour. A c l a s s i c a l additive disturbance i s thus s p e c i f i e d for the equation for estimation. An a l t e r n a t i v e approach i s based on a translog s p e c i f i c a t i o n of the household's cost function. Again one assumes a l l occupants control their dwellings and are responsible for the production of "housing" services in addition to "personal" services from which they derive benefits. The cost of providing such services i s 77 indicated by a cost function of the form; C = C(uh, up, W) . ..5.05 where,, uh represents the per period cost associated with the production of QHS units of "housing" services. up represents the per period cost associated with the production of QPS units of "personal" services. W represents the household's combined housing and human wealth. Normalizing in terms of the cost per period of "personal" services, the function i s of the form; C = C(uh, 1, w) = C(uh, W) Now thi s function can be represented by a translog function of the form; In (cost) = LO + L1*ln(u) + L2*ln(W) + 0.5 H11*ln(u)*ln(u) + H12*(ln(u)*ln(W)) + 0.5*H22*ln(W)*ln(W) ... 5.06 where, u represents the per period cost associated with the production of QHS units of "housing" services W represents the household's combined housing and human wealth at period s t a r t . By taking the logarithmic p a r t i a l derivatives as for the p r o f i t function, the cost share function can be derived as; QHS * U = L 1 + H 1 1 * i n ( u ) + H12 ln(W) cost ...5.07 where,, cost = Y + u * QHS when Y represents the household's after tax (disposable) income 78 In a manner similar to the p r o f i t share function, the parameters are estimated from th i s semilogarithmic equation via ordinary least squares. Again i t i s assumed that the translog form is an exact representation of the share equation and a c l a s s i c a l additive disturbance i s incorporated. Unlike the formulations u t i l i z e d in the Ul model where i t i s assumed that a l l dwellings are controlled by landlords with owner-occupiers renting to themselves, these two alternative formulations assume that the occupant controls the dwelling and i s responsible for the production of housing services. As such these formulations are applicable only to owner-occupiers. Furthermore the housing market model requires supply functions that r e f l e c t market changes over a ten year period: to estimate suitable functions requires matched data sets from which both period-start and period-end data can be obtained. The only source of such information in Canada i s Census data, but i t lacks both detailed dwelling information and data on expenditures. Such information i s available from the SHU dataset and the two alternative functions were estimated using the cross-sectional information (see APPENDIX A2.4). S i g n i f i c a n t estimates of the c o e f f i c i e n t s for the functions were obtained but the cross-sectional form of the data used prevents their use in the simulation model where the supply functions r e f l e c t change over a ten year period. Consequently, the only currently available approach to obtaining supply functions for the model i s to use s i m p l i s t i c representations and a c a l i b r a t i o n method to obtain the parameter values. 79 5.2 Supply System The Ul's approach to deriving a supply function, while based on acceptable p r o f i t maximization theory, degenerates to an ad hoc formulation through the incorporated assumptions necessary to derive a supply equation of a usable form. With the constraint imposed by c a l i b r a t i o n the following functions have been drawn from the o r i g i n a l Ul's function under an alternative set of assumptions. The formulation, separable by tenure, is of the general form SQj = | [ BETA1 + BETA2 * fn(Pj] * QI j ...5.08 for Pj > marginal "operating" cost BETA 1 * QIj for Pj < marginal "operating" cost I where Pj - OC fn(Pj) = PM for OC = the marginal "operating" cost PM = average "cost" per unit of "housing" service from the existing stock. Three parameters are s u f f i c i e n t to deterime the form and positioning of these functions 1. BETA1 to determine the position of the depreciated quantity constraint BETA 1 * QIj 2. OC to determine the intercept point between the two functions, and 3. a slope c o e f f i c i e n t , BETA2 for the e l a s t i c section of the function Both BETA 1 and BETA2 must be derived by c a l i b r a t i o n while the alte r n a t i v e exists either to specify 'a p r i o r ' OC drawing from available data on operating expenses, repairs and maintenance or incorporate OC as a linear function of PM and derive the c o e f f i c i e n t v i a c a l i b r a t i o n . The f i r s t approach has been u t i l i z e d in t h i s study. This supply function i s derived from the U.I. approach under the simplifying assumptions that the marginal "operating" cost includes, the cost of financing and that the marginal increase in the quantity of services provided over the i n i t i a l quantity has an associated average cost per unit equal to "PM" r e f l e c t i n g equilibrium conditions with respect to prices and costs. Implicit in t h i s formulation i s the assumption that a l l revenues and operating costs increase at the same constant rate providing a constant real p r o f i t over the decade. pr i c « - per PM O C PM SoppW| i;i_.v\ci,'c>r\ •for U l . fAoddt 7 • / V P M J J Qj ' * QXj Q M GETA1 * Q l i Figure 05: Typical Supply Curve 81 As with the Ul formulation, a minimum price has been incorporated on the assumption that anticipated land value appreciation provides an additional y i e l d to owners of unmaintained dwellings operating below OC but only up to a point where revenue does not cover hard operating costs. This price has been set at 27% of PM to r e f l e c t a t y p i c a l operating to revenue r a t i o for r e s i d e n t i a l properties. A graphical representation of the supply function and a comparable function from the o r i g i n a l model are presented as Figure 5:01. As formulated the discontinuous linear supply functions are more e l a s t i c in the c r i t i c a l area (at prices close to the price per unit of new housing service) than those associated with the o r i g i n a l model. Consequently under policy simulations the modified supply system w i l l y i e l d cost estimates lower than those obtained with the o r i g i n a l formulations as smaller price increases w i l l be required to achieve comparable increases in the quantity supplied. As a means of testing for the significance of the variance in the e l a s t i c i t y the policy simulations have been run using both models. With the lack of suitable data from which to derive long run supply functions, the supply side of the model greatly l i m i t s the r e l i a b i l i t y of the model and consequently the confidence one can place in any detailed simulation r e s u l t s . 82 CHAPTER 06: INITIALIZING the MODEL This chapter describes b r i e f l y how the the o r e t i c a l concepts associated with the simulation model are empirically measured, and how the model i s i n i t i a l i z e d for the' individual CMAs in preparation for " policy" simulation analyses. The majority of the related t h e o r e t i c a l and empirical analyses are contained in the APPENDIX Sections A1 and A2; this chapter, therefore, provides only a. general overview of the process involved. The basic approach and techniques employed generally follow those outlined in de Leeuw and Struyk(l975) and the associated Urban Institute publications. The f i r s t section d e t a i l s the selection of CMAs for t h i s study with the subsequent section covering the process involved in generating a "model" representation of a s p e c i f i c CMA. The f i n a l section covers the c a l i b r a t i o n procedures whereby function parameters not estimated by regression are estimated through simulation of actual decadal performance. 83 6.1 Selecting the CMAs For the purposes of this study, the model has been c a l i b r a t e d for eight CMAs selected to provide a sampling of a range of housing market c a h a r a c t e r i s t i c s that af f e c t the behaviour of households and dwelling owners. Since the impact of introduced p o l i c i e s w i l l vary with the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the market under consideration the sampling of CMAs provides a more r e a l i s t i c s t a t i s t i c a l base than a single CMA. Factors important in the long run simulation of housing market conditions include population growth, income growth and the d i s t r i b u t i o n of income. Of pa r t i c u l a r importance i s the percentage of households which can be c l a s s i f i e d as "low income", since i t i s toward th i s group that the p o l i c i e s under evaluation are directed. Other micro factors to be considered are the re l a t i v e cost of housing services, CMA size and commuting distances to the centre of the c i t y . In selecting representative Canadian CMAs two other c r i t e r i a considered important were the location of the CMAs by region and the location of the CMAs r e l a t i v e to each other. It was considered desirable to obtain a representative geographical sample and concentrate on the smaller centres but clos e l y related CMAs such as Toronto and Hamilton where cross-commuting occurs were eliminated. This l a t t e r size consideration i s important in order to increase the degree of disaggregation associated with the generated "model" households and dwellings. The Canadian CMAs for which the required data are available are presented in Table 13. 84 Population Growth of Growth in %Households 1971 Population Income 1971 Income 1961-71(%) 1961-71(%) Under $5000 Calgary 403 319 36 ,4a 72. 3b 15.2b Chicout imi 133 703 4 .7b 61 . 2b 1 9.0a Edmonton 495 702 31 .8a 78. 2a 16.3b Hali fax 222 637 1 4 .1b 81 . 0a 15.8b Hamilton 498 523 21 .7a 78. 3a 1 4.2b Kitchener 226 846 37 .7a 80. 3a 12.7b London 286 01 1 23 .2a 118. 6a 15.0b Montreal 2,743 208 21 ,3b 71 . 0b 18.4a Ottawa-Hull 602 510 27 . 5a 82. 6a 13.1b Quebec City 480 502 23 . 6a 77. 6b 1 6.9a Regina. 140 732 21 .2b 60. 4b 1 9.8a St.Cat-Niag St. John's 303 429 1 6 .3b 79. 2a 1 6.2b 131 814 21 .1b 76. 5b 28.0a Saskatoon 126 449 27 .8a 63. 5b 20.7a Sudbury 155 424 19 .8b 90. 3a 9.7b Toronto 2,628 043 31 . 2a 81 . 9a 1 3.4b Vancouver 1 ,082 352 26 .8a 81 . 2a 18.4a V i c t o r i a 195 800 22 .8a 77. 7b 19.1a Windsor 258 643 17 ,4b 1 09. 5a 1 4.. 9b Winnipeg 540 262 12 • 5b 70. 0b 1 7.4a note: [1] "a" denotes a CMA above the median "b" denotes a CMA below the median CMAs Grouped by the Combined Ranking of the Two Growth Factors and the Percent of Low Income Households group 1 aaa Vancouver 2 aab Hamilton, Kitchener, London, Ottawa-Hull, Toronto, Edmonton 3 abb Calgary 4 aba Quebec City, Saskatoon, V i c t o r i a 5 bbb none 6 bba Chicoutimi, Montreal, Regina, St. John's, 7 Saint John, Winnipeg 8 baa none 9 bab Halifax, St. Catherines-Niagara, Sudbury, Windsor source: Ray, M.D. (ed.), Canadian Urban Trends Volume 1, National Perspective, Government of Canada, 1977. Table 13: Selected S t a t i s t i c s for Canadian CMA's 85 Two CMAs, Thunder Bay and Saint John, were eliminated because of inadequate data. In the second section of Table 13 each CMA is c l a s s i f i e d according to whether or not i t l i e s above the median CMA with regard to the following selected variables for the decade under consideration; decade population growth, decade income growth and the decade-end percentage of households with incomes of less than $5,000. These groupings provide a basis on which to select a sample of CMAs. The eight CMAs considered are: Calgary, Kitchener, Quebec City, St. John's, Saskatoon, Sudbury, Vancouver and Winnipeg. This provides a d i s t r i b u t i o n with respect to population of one CMA in the one m i l l i o n plus category, three in the 400,000 to one m i l l i o n category and four in the 100,000 to 400,000 . The s p a t i a l d i s t r i b u t i o n i s as follows; one in the Maritimes, one in Quebec, two in Ontario, three in the P r a i r i e s and one in B r i t i s h Columbia. In terms of the study, the most important d i s t r i b u t i o n a l aspects are concerned with population growth, and income growth and d i s t r i b u t i o n . One CMA has been selected from each of the six groupings shown in Table 13, with the two additional CMAs being selected to provide both a regional contrast and an emphasis on the poorer and smaller CMAs. The size of the selected CMAs provides a range of actual to "model" ratios of a low of 287 for St. John's to a high of 3,454 for Vancouver. Additional selected s t a t i s t i c s for these CMAs, indicating their diverse nature, are contained in APPENDIX A3. 86 6.2 "Model" Data Generation The major data inputs required by the model for an individual CMA are the income d i s t r i b u t i o n s for each of the ten household TYPEs and equity to value r a t i o s for the five owner-occupier household TYPEs; rent and user cost d i s t r i b u t i o n s for the dwellings and CBD access and wealth parameters for each of five geographic zones. Secondary data includes information on new construction costs and the minimum quantities associated with a new dwelling. The income d i s t r i b u t i o n s for each household TYPE are divided to create the "model" households: the rent and user cost d i s t r i b u t i o n s are deflated to "r e l a t i v e housing" services and divided to create independent rental and owner-occupier "model" dwellings. B r i e f l y , the steps involved in generating the data sets for i n i t i a l i z i n g the demand side, then the supply side are: 1. delineate the CMA into the specified number of location a l zones (five zones are employed for thi s study), and calculate by zone the average income and average access for use in determining zonal e x t e r n a l i t i e s . 2. create the 1971 "model" households and data on mean incomes by household type. Income data from the 1974 Survey of Housing Units deflated to a 1971 mean are used. 3. estimate the 1971 hedonic c o e f f i c i e n t s to be used to convert actual 1971 rents and prices from " r e s i d e n t i a l " services to "housing" services. These c o e f f i c i e n t s are estimated via multiple regression u t i l i z i n g 1971 census data incorporated in the 1974 SHU data. Using the 1971 hedonic c o e f f i c i e n t s the 1971 "model" dwellings are then created. These "model" dwellings are represented in the MODELS by the mean adjusted monthly rent (or an equivalent user cost) and the zone in which they are located. In addition, c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the actual 1971 households by household type and zone are used to provide a basis for c a l i b r a t i o n c a l c u l a t i o n s . 4. the cal c u l a t i o n of separate new construction parameters for the renter and owner-occupier markets. The demand function parameter sets (A1,B11,B12,BM1,BM2) are then estimated u t i l i z i n g the 1974 SHU data by d i f f e r e n t i a t i n g households f i r s t by household type and then by income into four q u a r t i l e s to 87 r e f l e c t additional variations with income and to enable the generation of r e l a t i v e l y smooth demand functions. Details of t h i s procedure are outlined in Section 4.4. These operations provide the data required to estimate the two zonal externality parameters: EXT1 and EXT2 via a c a l i b r a t i o n process. 5. estimate zonal externality parameters via c a l i b r a t i o n using the 1971 model households and dwellings and the estimated demand function formulations. These zonal externality parameters r e f l e c t the household's preferences for being located in a r e s i d e n t i a l zone with good central business d i s t r i c t (CBD) access and with high income residents. The next step involves generating the al t e r n a t i v e data set required for estimating via c a l i b r a t i o n the parameters of the supply functions. Step 3 must be repeated to generate the 1961 "model" dwellings. This involves; 6. estimating the 1961 hedonic c o e f f i c i e n t s , again via multiple regression, but using the 1961 Census data aggregated at the enumeration area l e v e l . This then allows the generation of the 1961 "model" dwellings using the 1961 hedonic c o e f f i c i e n t s and 1961 Census tract data. In addition, c a l i b r a t i o n data representing the change in market conditions over the decade are derived. This involves u t i l i z i n g both the 1961 and the 1971 hedonic c o e f f i c i e n t s in conjunction with the 1961 and 1971 Census tract data to generate price i n d i c i e s by zone. Additional data on decade-end household and dwelling c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s are also derived from the 1971 data. 6.21 Neighbourhood Zones The " r e s i d e n t i a l " services that a housing unit provides are viewed as a combination of the "housing" services associated with the actual structure and those associated with the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the neighbourhood in which the unit i s located. In order to derive the neighbourhood aspect, a CMA must be divided into a series of zones. With household u t i l i t y from housing services 88 consumption being considered a function of access to employment opportunities and neighbourhood e x t e r n a l i t i e s , in addition to "housing" services consumed, i t follows that within-zone homogeneity with respect to these factors should be the major c r i t e r i o n for determining zonal boundaries. In the Urban Institute studies, the zones were delineated using personal judgment. Tentative boundaries were drawn by placing primary emphasis on the r a c i a l and rent c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s and then adjusted for major discrepancies with regard to the other factors. This study employs cluster analysis, a simple s t a t i s t i c a l grouping technique. Details on this process are given in APPENDIX A1 .412. The clu s t e r i n g "keys" employed are the 1961 Census Tract rents, housing values and incomes as "services" and "wealth" c r i t e r i a , and distance from the central c i t y as an access c r i t e r i o n . An exception occurs with Quebec City, where many 1961 census tracts have no reported housing values and c l u s t e r i n g was necessarily based on the three remaining "keys". Census tracts annexed in the 1971 Census are simply grouped and assigned to the zone with the closest average mean value for the cl u s t e r i n g "keys". Maps ou t l i n i n g the zones generated by t h i s method are presented for each CMA in APPENDIX: Figures A3:02. One concern that arises with the clustering technique is that no control over group size i s available unless a contiguity constraint i s imposed. Since c l u s t e r i n g has been undertaken without imposing such a constraint, some CMAs is o l a t e a single census tract as a zone. Generally, the stock in a single tract for these CMAs corresponds to three or four "model" dwellings and i s thus not a problem. The exception i s Winnipeg, where a single "wealthy" 1961 tract i s isola t e d with stock corresponding to less than a single "model" dwelling. In t h i s case the annexed tracts which have mean incomes, rents and values in excess of a l l other zones have been included with the single t r a c t . The d i s t r i b u t i o n of the tracts by zone is given in Table 14 for each of the CMAs. 90 ZONE Calgary 1961 1971 Kitchener 1961 1971 Quebec City 1961 1971 St John 1961 1971 Saskatoon 1961 1971 Sudbury 1961 197 1 Vancouver 1961 197 1 Winnipeg 1961 1971 1 9 16 10 1 1 27 27 5 5 6 7 4 6 1 9 28 39 41 zone for annexed t r a c t s . 2 4 10 15 18 19 2 2 3 3 7 8 35 37 25 30 8 39 3 3 23 22 2 2 4 4 5 5 5 9 1 2 1 2 4 5 5 1 2 7 10 7 8 2 2 3 3 48 80 21 20 4 4 2 2 7 8 4 4 2 2 1 3 18 1 1 1 note: "A" indicates number of tracts with no matching 1961 tract Table 14: Dis t r i b u t i o n of Census Tracts by Zone 6.22 "Model" Households . The c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the "model" households for each of the ten TYPEs are derived from the 1974 Survey of Housing Units data. For each CMA a t o t a l of 100 "model" households are formed, each being represented by the actual 1971 after tax income, taxes and TYPE group. In addition for owner-occupiers, their percent equity 91 holding in their actual dwelling i s included. "Model" households are formed from a d i s t r i b u t i o n by income of actual households in each TYPE group by dividing the continuum by the r a t i o of actual to "model" households. The result i s that each "model" household within a CMA represents approximately the same number of actual households, grouped regardless of their location in the CMA. The derived d i s t r i b u t i o n of "model" households by TYPE is outlined on a CMA basis in Table 15. HOUSEHOLD TYPE renters owners CMA 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 Calgary 5 1 2 10 9 7 5 7 1 1 1 4 20 Kitchener 4 9 12 6 9 1 0 5 1 2 1 1 22 Quebec City 8 15 1 5 12 8 6 3 7 1 4 1 2 St John's 3 5 8 1 1 9 10 8 1 2 1 4 21 Saskatoon 6 10 1 1 6 7 1 0 6 10 1 4 20 Sudbury 4 1 1 8 12 7 8 6 9 15 20 Vancouver 8 15 1 1 4 3 1 1 9 1 4 9 1 6 Winnipeg 6 1 2 1 1 7 5 10 7 1 2 13 17 average 5.9 12.1 11.9 9.0 7.5 7.9 5.6 10.3 12.3 17.6 Table 15: D i s t r i b u t i o n of Households by TYPE The required after tax income (and taxes) and the equity holding are not d i r e c t l y available on the SHU data sets. This has required t h e i r c a l c u l a t i o n from reported household and household members' gross incomes, with deductions based on the household's c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . The method by which taxes are calculated i s described in APPENDIX A2.31. The mean gross and net household incomes on a CMA basis are shown in Table 16. 92 HOUSEHOLD TYPE 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Calgary Gross 3113 7257 10897 8121 10323 5917 9826 14094 12210 13587 Net 2882 5703 8919 6637 8672 5135 7480 11244 9383 10837 Kitchener Gross 5394 6234 11314 6612 9751 5838 9359 15574 12376 13981 Net 4694 5178 9351 5689 8345 5104 7484 12309 9579 11427 Quebec City Gross 5638 5864 9968 7516 10781 10195 10251 16197 12349 16168 Net 4929 4720 8195 6264 8952 7872 7642 12281 9189 12219 St. John's Gross 5385 5459 9260 5383 9064 6338 8577 12928 8584 13473 Net 4620 4499 7749 4787 7674 5412 6690 10412 6961 10777 Saskatoon Gross 3840 4851 8836 5829 9150 5266 7796 12225 10116 12651 Net 3418 4057 7329 5056 7749 4578 6198 9853 8115 10230 Sudbury Gross 5687 7459 14059 8542 13317 6944 10712 16097 11947 17420 Net 4871 6056 11163 7123 10899 5961 8178 12601 9505 13474 Vancouver Gross 4723 6208 12266 7429 10076 7411 8867 15802 12847 13436 Net 4182 5058 9748 6176 8510 6222 6940 12437 9964 10976 Winnipeg Gross 4017 5862 10774 6468 9898 6501 7811 14030 11033 14445 Net 3501 4709 8838 5434 8299 5507 6300 10972 8681 11422 Table 16: Gross and Net Incomes by TYPE and CMA [1971 Tenured "Model" Representations] 93 In estimating the demand functions i t i s assumed that for owner-occupiers a tax free return on their equity holding i s included as after tax income. Based on the assumption that the current mortgage rate applicable to t h e i r property represents their opportunity cost, the degree of owner-occupier leverage i s indicated by the percentage of their expenditure that i s an opportunity cost. These percentages are calculated as: opportunity cost on equity %EQUITY = actual expenditure + opportunity cost on equity The c a l c u l a t i o n s of these costs and expenditures are shown in APPENDIX A2.31. The mean values for the fiv e owner-occupier household TYPES are detailed in Table 17. OWNER-OCCUPIER HOUSEHOLD TYPES CMA 6 1 8 c 3 10 Calgary 69 . 1% 50. .8% 41 . 7% 38. .4% 40. 0% Kitchener 61 .8% 58. .5% 56. 6% 47. .3% 45. 4% Quebec City St. John's 56 .7% 52. .2% 48. 9% 37. . 1% 40. 1% 53 .5% 52. . 1% 47. 6% 38. .6% 40. 7% Saskatoon 59 .4% - 51 . .2% 44. 7% 37. .8% 39. 4% Sudbury 64 . 1% 59. .9% 55. 5% 47. .4% 46. 7% Vancouver 75 .4% 57. .5% 59. 6% 58. .9% 47. 0% Winnipeg 66 .3% 60. .7% 51 . 3% 44. .7% 45. 2% Table 17: Mean Equity Holdings by CMA and TYPE 6.23 "Model" Dwellings The complete implementation of the model requires the creation of two sets of "model" dwellings; a 1971 set to be employed for c a l i b r a t i n g for neighbourhood e x t e r n a l i t i e s and a 1961 set for use in "base" c a l i b r a t i o n s and "policy" simulations. The c a l c u l a t i o n of "housing" services d i s t r i b u t i o n s i s possibly the most d i f f i c u l t task involved in applying the housing market model to a CMA. This d i f f i c u l t y arises because the model's demand and supply functions are formulated in terms of units of "housing" services, thus requiring the conversion of the observable " r e s i d e n t i a l " services, "RS", to the location-free quantity of services measure. Theoretically, t h i s relationship between " r e s i d e n t i a l " and "housing" services i s of the form; Residential Services = Housing Services + Neighbourhood Services where the "neighbouhood services" component may be either positive or negative. That i s , a structure y i e l d i n g 100 units of "housing" services placed in a high qu a l i t y neighbourhood may y i e l d a t o t a l of 120 units of " r e s i d e n t i a l " services, indicating that the neighbourhood environment generates an additional 20 units of service. On the other hand, i f this same structure i s placed in a poor quality neighbourhood, the t o t a l " r e s i d e n t i a l " services may only be 90 units; a discount of 10 units of service. To derive the "housing" services component of the " r e s i d e n t i a l " services associated with dwellings in a CMA, an equation of the form RS = f ( s t r u c t u r a l attributes) + f(neighbourhood attributes) i s estimated v i a regression analysis, (see APPENDIX A1.31). The output from these regression analyses consists of separate rental and owner-occupier models, in which rents, or a l t e r n a t i v e l y estimated values, (being proxies for " r e s i d e n t i a l " services) are explained in terms of the str u c t u r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the housing stock and neighbourhood-related variables. Ideally, the 95 neighbourhood e f f e c t i s simply the d i f f e r e n c e between the a c t u a l r e n t - q u a n t i t y of " r e s i d e n t i a l " s e r v i c e s and the c a l c u l a t e d q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s . A problem a r i s e s , however, s i n c e the i n c l u d e d neighbourhood v a r i a b l e s are h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d with the " s t r u c t u r a l " v a r i a b l e s that have been e l i m i n a t e d from the r e g r e s s i o n e quations. Consequently, i f the i n c l u d e d s t r u c t u r a l v a r i a b l e s alone are employed to c a l c u l a t e the q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s , the q u a n t i t y w i l l be s e v e r e l y underestimated. Thus, with c u r r e n t data sources i t i s impossible to c a l c u l a t e the t h e o r e t i c a l s e p a r a t i o n of " r e s i d e n t i a l " s e r v i c e s . Although not e x p l i c i t l y s t a t e d , the U.I. c a l c u l a t e s what may be termed " r e l a t i v e housing" s e r v i c e s , "RHS", as a s u b s t i t u t e . These r e l a t i v e q u a n t i t i e s are c a l c u l a t e d by s u b s t i t u t i n g the CMA average values f o r the "neighbourhood" c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n a d d i t i o n to the r e l e v a n t " s t r u c t u r a l " v a r i a b l e v a l u e s . Thus our d w e l l i n g that p r o v i d e s 120 u n i t s of " r e s i d e n t i a l " s e r v i c e s , of which 100 are "housing" s e r v i c e s , may pro v i d e 110 u n i t s of " r e l a t i v e housing" s e r v i c e s , w h i le the e q u i v a l e n t d w e l l i n g i n an i n f e r i o r neighbourhood w i l l a l s o provide 110 u n i t s of " r e l a t i v e housing" s e r v i c e s . C o r r e s p o n d i n g l y , an a l t e r n a t i v e d w e l l i n g p r o v i d i n g 90 u n i t s of "housing" s e r v i c e would p r o v i d e approximately 101 u n i t s of "RHS". Now i f the average " r e s i d e n t i a l " s e r v i c e s and average RHSs are c a l c u l a t e d on e i t h e r a t r a c t or zonal b a s i s , the d i f f e r e n c e between the two averages w i l l i n d i c a t e the r e l a t i v e value of the neighbourhood c o n d i t i o n s w i t h i n the grouping. An average RHS lower than the " r e s i d e n t i a l " s e r v i c e s average i n d i c a t e s a premium a s s o c i a t e d with the neighbourhood a t t r i b u t e s ; a higher RHS i n d i c a t e s a d i s c o u n t i n g and t h e r e f o r e an i n f e r i o r neighbourhood. From the r e l a t i o n s h i p between " r e s i d e n t i a l s e r v i c e s " (rent or value) and " r e l a t i v e housing" services obtained, zonal quantity ADJUSTORS are calculated which allow the conversion of a d i s t r i b u t i o n of " r e s i d e n t i a l " services to an equivalent d i s t r i b u t i o n of r e l a t i v e "housing" services. The c a l c u l a t i o n of the ADJUSTORs on a zonal basis involves two steps. 1. the ca l c u l a t i o n for each zone of the ra t i o of average RHS-rent to the average rent and the equivalent for owned dwellings; RHS-own to value. The weighted average of these two ratios i s taken as the "actual" ADJUSTOR for the zone. 2. since the dire c t use of these ADJUSTORs w i l l result in an "e f f e c t i v e " unit price for the "housing" services d i f f e r e n t from one, these adjustors are then divided by an equivalent city-wide ADJUSTOR calculated from census tract data, giving "weighted ADJUSTORs", with a CMA mean of 1.00. Implicit in this adjustment process i s the assumption that the mean of the d i s t r i b u t i o n of the "neighbourhood" services i s zero. That i s , t o t a l rents or "rent equivalence" for owner-occupied dwellings equal the t o t a l expenditure on " r e l a t i v e housing" services. This adjustment process i s in fact adjusting "housing" services to compensate for the exclusion from the demand function of expenditures asociated with the "neighbourhood" services component. The adjustments w i l l obviously bias the estimated r e l a t i v e u t i l i t i e s associated with the consumption of new and existing dwellings, since no similar adjustments are made on a zonal basis for new construction. Ideally, the household's u t i l i t y and budget functions should include a "neighbourhood" services component, even i f only on a r e l a t i v e basis, allowing the expenditures on housing 97 to be so d i f f e r e n t i a t e d . To derive the c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of the "model" dwellings, actual housing units within the CMA are allocated on a zonal basis. This process involves d i s t r i b u t i n g reported monthly rents and monthly user costs, over a continuum with a range of 1 to 800, (1 to 500 for 1961), with the i n t e r v a l corresponding to a monthly expenditure of $1. This continuum i s then divided into the required number of "model" dwellings for each zone with the mean quantity of " r e s i d e n t i a l " services associated with each model dwelling calculated. These " r e s i d e n t i a l " services are then converted into " r e l a t i v e housing" services using the zonal adjustors. Decade-end quantities so derived w i l l be expressed in terms of a 1971 price per unit of "housing" service of 1.00. Since the model operates in nominal terms with a base price of 1.00, these 1971 quantities must be deflated to equivalent 1961 quantities via r e l a t i v e zonal price indices. With the Urban Institute's model the technique used in adjusting owner-occupied dwelling values to a rent equivalence i s based on the assumption that average rental and owner-ocupier dwellings within a census tract provide an equivalent quantity of " r e s i d e n t i a l " services. For t h i s modified model the "user" costs calculated for estimating the demand and supply function are derived independent of such a constraint, r e s u l t i n g in the average user cost for owners being greatly in excess of average rents. Thus in deriving the "model" dwelling the quantities must r e f l e c t the relationship between actual user costs and value, not the corresponding rent and value. The "model" dwelling, representations are derived from Census data which does not include data on user costs. To convert value to user cost a rel a t i o n s h i p between, user cost and value was estimated from the SHU data using 98 the functional relationship EXPENDITURE VALUE = a1 + b1 * LOG(VALUE) ...6:01 with the expectation that the r a t i o w i l l decline with an increasing value. By normalizing the independent variable VALUE (dividing by the mean), the Intercept (al) w i l l correspond to the mean value for the expenditure to value r a t i o given that the logarithm of one i s zero. Estimates of t h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p using the 1974 Survey of Housing Units data, used for the creation of the 1971 "model" dwellings, are detailed in Table 18. CM.A Calgary Kitchener Quebec City St. John's Saskatoon Sudbury Vancouver Winnipeg MEAN al b1 R2 VALUE 0.1161 • -0.02232 0.12 24,207 0.1206 -0.02410 0.12 25,488 0.1401 -0.05866 0.32 20,048 0.1337 -0.04330 0.29 24,834 0.1211 -0.03860 0.26 18,730 0. 1379 -0.06970 0.23 23,460 0.1219 -0.05344 0.16 32,860 0.1301 -0.03960 0.24 22,495 Table 18: 1971 Expenditure/Value Ratio Estimates To derive the d i s t r i b u t i o n of monthly "user costs" from the corresponding values simply involves the substitution of the respective value range parameters into the estimated equation to derive an interval in terms of the "user cost". In d e f l a t i n g the resulting decade-end quantities of " r e l a t i v e housing" services (1971 "model" dwellings), expressed in terms of a 99 1971 price per unit of "housing" service of 1.00, to equivalent 1961 quantities, the r e l a t i v e zonal price ind i c i e s must adjust not only for the zonal differences but also for the difference in price i n f l a t i o n for owner-occupied dwellings r e l a t i v e to rental dwellings. Because of d i f f e r e n t structure types and d i f f e r e n t taxation treatment, this difference in the price i n f l a t i o n ranges from a low of 4.5% to a high of 41.0% across the eight CMAs considered. The d i s t r i b u t i o n s of the 1971 "model" dwellings by tenure and zone are outlined in Table 19 for the eight CMAs. As with the tenured households the d i s t r i b u t i o n s are set to provide a t o t a l tenure d i s t r i b u t i o n as for the 1971 Census. LOCATIONAL ZONES renters owners CMA 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 3 4 5 Calgary 1 7 2 1 5 8 1 18 4 30 2 3 Kitchener 1 2 1 2 2 1 3 1 12 1 9 7 18 4 Quebec City 15 19 1 3 7 4 5 6 18 7 6 St John's 9 1 4 1 3 8 12 2 5 26 20 Saskatoon 1 1 7 6 1 3 3 14 9 1 4 22 1 Sudbury 8 6 1 2 7 9 16 1 6 9 4 13 Vancouver 1 1 13 1 14 2 7 1 3 3 29 7 Winnipeg 21 1 1 6 2 1 22 21 3 1 1 2 source: output from program:D71.FORT Table 19: 1971 Dis t r i b u t i o n of Dwellings The 1961 "model" dwellings are created in a manner s i m i l i a r to the 1971 model dwellings, but lacking suitable data from which to derive a comparable expenditure to value function, use i s made of the function estimates from the 1974 SHU data outlined in Table 18 and the computed 1961 market values and user costs d e t a i l e d in 100 APPENDIX Table A2:18. The average user costs and values are used to adjust the mean r a t i o (intercept) of the 1974 estimates with the assumption that the rate of change remains constant. The resu l t i n g parameters are reported in Table 20. CMA a1 b1 Calgary 0. 0905 -o, .02232 Kitchener 0. 0954 -0, .02410 Quebec City St. John's 0. 1 144 -o. .05866 0. 1087 -o. .04330 Saskatoon 0. 0961 -o, .03860 Sudbury 0. 1 123 -0, .06970 Vancouver 0. 0973 -0, .05344 Winnipeg 0. 1 046 -0, .03960 source: see APPENDIX Section A2.43 Table 20: 1961 Expenditure/Value Ratio Parameters The d i s t r i b u t i o n of the 1961 "model" dwellings, based on the tenure s p l i t of the 1961 Census are detailed in Table 21. LOCATIONAL ZONES renters owners CMA 1 2 3 4 5 1 ; > '• i < \ 5 Calgary 10 1 8 5 1 11 4 20 3 4 Ki tchener " 7 4 0 6 1 1 3 1 5 1 1 5 1 Quebec City 1 6 15 5 2 3 6 6 8 4 5 St John's 9 1 3 7 1 1 4 3 6 20 7 Saskatoon 7 5 3 3 2 14 1 1 1 3 9 0 Sudbury 4 5 12 7 4 1 2 14 1 2 5 1 Vancouver 5 9 0 6 1 7 14 2 20 5 Winnipeg 1 4 5 6 1 0 24 19 4 5 0 source: output from program:D6l.FORT Table 21: 1961 Di s t r i b u t i o n of Dwellings 101 6.24 New Constrution Parameters The price or cost per unit of "housing" services from new dwellings, PN, must be measured r e l a t i v e to the same base as other prices incorporated into the model. With th i s study a l l simulations u t i l i z e 1961 as the base year and thus new construction costs during the decade must be calculated to r e f l e c t cost changes over the decade. While a l l other prices are endogenously determined, construction prices/costs are exogenously determined under an assumption that they are derived independent of housing market forces. As a result new construction costs become an important model parameter and must be c a r e f u l l y s p e c i f i e d . For convenience, the model's base price i s set to unity with regard to existing "model" dwellings in 1961 and thus values for PN w i l l be in the range 1.00 to 2.00, indicating the increases in construction costs over the decade. Data on the d i s t r i b u t i o n of operating costs have been derived from the 1969 Survey of Family Expenditure; c a p i t a l costs d i s t r i b u t i o n data from Canadian Housing S t a t i s t i c s . While d i s t r i b u t i o n s of the c a p i t a l cost components are readily available for a l l years of the decade, equivalent operating cost data is only available for 1969. These l a t t e r data are therefore used to obtain r e l a t i v e component costs to be i n d i v i d u a l l y inflated/deflated u t i l i z i n g available price indices. F u l l d e t a i l s on the c a l c u l a t i o n of the individual components t of PN, the price per unit of "housing" service from newly constructed dwellings, for a l t e r n a t i v e l y rental and owner-occupied dwellings are outlined in APPENDIX A1.21 and A1.31 -The other new construction parameter, QM, the minimum quantity 102 of new housing services i s derived by generating "model" dwelling representation in 1971 of a l t e r n a t i v e l y the rental and owner-occupied dwellings constructed during the decade. The value for QM is then taken d i r e c t l y from the assigned quantities for these "model" dwellings. Because of "noise" in the value d i s t r i b u t i o n , and in order to adjust for depreciation of stock constructed in the e a r l i e r stages of the decade, the values for QM are taken as the "housing" services associated with the second lowest, new "model" dwelling generated for the tenure form. These values for QM, obtained in terms of 1961 "housing" services, represent a constant real quantity over the decade. While one would suspect such a constraint to be increasing.in real terms, the solution algorithm has no means of assigning new construction over the decade so that such a constraint could be employed. The derived values for QM, under a weighted value of PN, range from a low of 27.3 for Sudbury to a high of 62.2 for Kitchener. The majority of the variance in these measurements results from the variation in housing costs by CMA. These estimates of QM, being based on the quantity of "housing" services a do l l a r would buy in 1961, represent more housing when housing costs are low. 103 rental owner -occupied PG PN PO PC QM PN PO PC QM Calgary 1 .65 0 .45 1 .20 50. 1 .87 0. 45 1 .42 55. 1 .282 Kitchener 1 .67 0 .45 1 .22 51 . 2 .36 0. 45 1 .91 74. 1 .300 Quebec City St. John's 1 .54 0 .41 1 .13 52. 1 .61 0. 41 1 .20 80. 1 .270 1 .30 0 .35 0 .95 67. 1 .70 0. 35 1 .35 77. 1 .241 Saskatoon 1 .22 0 .33 0 .89 57. 1 .63 0. 33 1 .30 70. 1 .237 Sudbury 1 .56 0 .42 1 . 1 4 45. 1 .91 0. 42 1 .49 77. 1 .350 Vancouver 1 .59 0 .43 1 .16 65. 2 .23 0. 43 1 .80 80. 1 .270 Winnipeg 1 .43 0 .39 1 .04 66. 1 .66 0. 39 1 .27 79. 1 .289 note: PN i s the price per unit of "new" housing service PO i s the base operating cost per unit of housing service PC i s the average c a p i t a l cost per unit of housing service QM i s the minimum quantity of "housing" services provided by a new dwelling PG i s the price per unit of other goods and services Table 22: Construction Parameters 104 6.3 Implementation The implementation of the demand side of the model involves estimating the parameters of the expenditure share functions and then c a l i b r a t i n g for the EXT 1 and EXT2 parameters to r e f l e c t the neighbourhood e x t e r n a l i t i e s . The supply side implementation involves c a l i b r a t i n g for the BETA1 and BETA2 parameters which define the supply function. 6.31 Demand Function Implementation In order to incorporate the estimated expenditure share equations into the simulation algorithm the functions must be of a form in which the price per unit of "housing" service can be obtained for a given quantity or the quantity derived for a given p r i c e . An i n i t i a l implementation of the demand system involved the direct substitution of the estimated expenditure share functions. A problem arose from the non-global nature of translog estimates resu l t i n g in simulated values being unstable for data points removed from the mean conditions. That i s , i f the household's income ( t o t a l expenditure) i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t from the mean income associated with the estimation of the equation parameters the nature of the function results in a d i s t o r t i o n of the implied expenditure on housing. To bypass t h i s problem the implemented demand system has been based on the use of the "share" e l a s t i c i t i e s to r e f l e c t variations in either the price or quantity from the respective mean values. In addition, by u t i l i z i n g functions estimated at the mean of each of the income q u a r t i l e s for each household TYPE grouping, weighting of the parameters to r e f l e c t a household with an income f a l l i n g between the means has been 105 possible. This implementation results in continuous and stable demand functions for each household TYPE. The share e l a s t i c i t i e s r e f l e c t the percentage change in the share of the budget spent on housing for a given percentage change in the quantity of "housing" services consumed or the price paid per unit of "housing" service. Working from f i r s t p r i n c i p l e s we take the expenditure share equation to derive the share e l a s t i c i t y with respect to quantity. Pi * Xi Ai + B i j ln(Xj) M -1. + Bmi ln(Xj) then Si [-1 + Bmi * ln(Xj)] * B i j - [Ai + B i j ln ( X j ) ] * Bmj ln(Xj) [-1 + Bmj * ln(Xj)]**2 now i f i t i s assumed that ln(Xj) = ln(Xj) = l n ( l ) = 0 then Si [-1 * B i j - Ai * Bmj] ln(Xj) -1**2 = - B i j - Ai * Bmj sq = -[ B i j + Ai * Bmj] ...6.02 The corresponding share e l a s t i c i t y with respect to price must be obtained i n d i r e c t l y . We have Si Si ln(Xj) = * ln(Pj) ln(Xj) ln(Pj) but 106 -1 Bi j + Ai * Bmj ln(Xj) ln(Pj) thus Si ln(Pj) or esp = [Bij + Ai * Bmj] ...6.03 o To solve for price for a given quantity of "housing" services the expenditure share function u t i l i z e d i s as for Equation 6:04. Ps * Q = Sbase + esq * [ ln(Q) - ln(Qm) ] Y ... 6:04 where, Q == the known quantity of "housing" services. Ps := the unknown price per unit of "housing" service that the household is prepared to pay for the "Q" units of "housing" services. Y - the household's disposable income Sbase := the "weighted" expenditure share based on the relevant q u a r t i l e mean, where the weights on the c o e f f i c i e n t s are derived from the r a t i o of the household's income to the respective mean incomes. That i s , i f a household's income l i e s midpoint between the mean income for q u a r t i l e 1 and qua r t i l e 2, the substituted c o e f f i c i e n t s w i l l be the mean of the respective q u a r t i l e values; represented as WA1, WB11, WB12, WBM1, WBM2. If the household's mean income f a l l s below the mean for qua r t i l e 1 or above the mean for qu a r t i l e 4, the coeff-i c i e n t s used are just those for the respective q u a r t i l e . WA1 + WB11 * In (Q) + WB12 * In (XG) -1. + WBM1 * In (Cj ) + WBM2 * In (XG) where, Q = the known quantity of housing services consumed. 107 XG =: quantity of other goods and services consumed. esq = the "weighted" share e l a s t i c i t y with respect to quantity Si In (Qj) = -[ WB11 + WA1 * WBM1 ] Qm = the "weighted" mean quantity of "housing" services, representing the mean quantities u t i l i z e d during the This expression can be factorized such that; Y Ps = - * [ Sbase + sq * (In (Q) - In (Qm)) ] Q ....6:05 and consequently the solution price may be obtained d i r e c t l y . To solve for the quantity for a given price, the process is similar with the formulation; Ps * Q Y where = Sbase + sq * [ In (Ps) - In (Pm) ] ....6:06 Pm = the "weighted" mean price per unit of "housing" services representing the mean q u a l i t i e s u t i l i z e d during the estimations for the respective q u a r t i l e . sq = the "weighted" share e l a s t i c i t y with regard to price. Si In (Pj) = WB11 + WA1 * WBM1 giving, Y Q = -- * [ Sbase + sq * (In (Ps) - In (Pm) ] Ps 6:07 108 6.32 Cal i b r a t i n g for E x t e r n a l i t i e s In specifying the demand for "housing" services function i t has been assumed that the demand function i s separable in "housing" services and "neighbourhood services. The function i s then sp e c i f i e d in terms of " r e l a t i v e housing" services under the additional assumption that the mean of the d i s t r i b u t i o n of expenditures on "neighbourhood" services for a CMA i s zero. That i s , t o t a l rents or "user costs" for owner-occupied dwellings equal the t o t a l expenditure on " r e l a t i v e housing" services. To incorporate neighbourhood preferences i t i s assumed that t o t a l u t i l i t y i s log li n e a r , as in the Urban Inst i t u t e model, incorporating r e l a t i v e wealth and r e l a t i v e access components in addition to the p a r t i a l u t i l i t y from the consumption of housing and other goods and services U ( i , j ) = UX(i,j) * ZW * ZA ...6.08 where, U( i , j ) i s the t o t a l u t i l i t y household " i " derives when consuming the "housing" services provided by dwelling " j " . UX(i,j) i s the p a r t i a l u t i l i t y derived from the consumption of housing and other goods and services ZW, ZA are the p a r t i a l u t i l i t i e s derived respectively from neighbourhood amenities and access to the CBD ZW = {(MY)zone/(MY)city} *•* (EXT1/10.) ...6.09 ZA = {2. - (A/AMAX)} ** (EXT2/10.) ...6.10 where, (MY)zone i s the mean income of households l i v i n g in the zone where dwelling " j " i s located. (MY)city i s the mean income of a l l households in the c i t y . A i s a number r e f l e c t i n g distance from the CBD of the zone where dwelling " j " i s located. 109 AMAX i s a number r e f l e c t i n g the distance from the CBD of the most distant zone EXT1 and EXT2 are parameters estimated via c a l i b r a t i o n The c a l i b r a t i o n procedure for the two externality parameters, EXT1 and EXT2 clos e l y p a r a l l e l s that used by the Urban Institute (de Leeuw and Struyk (1975, p86-9l)) for c a l i b r a t i n g the GAMMA parameters. The difference i s that the demand curves, and consequently consumption l e v e l s , are fixed with the only changes being in the order in which the "model" household's select "model" dwellings. If two "model" dwellings located in d i f f e r e n t zones both y i e l d the same price-quantity combination, the order in which they are selected i s determined by the values of EXT1 and EXT2 and the zonal c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . Market solution conditions are extremely sens i t i v e to small changes in the EXT1 and EXT2 parameters, p a r t i c u l a r l y the EXT1 parameter which r e f l e c t s the r e l a t i v e income l e v e l for the zone. Outlined in Table 23 are the best f i t EXT parameters obtained for the eight selected CMAs. In evaluating the alte r n a t i v e EXT parameters the dominant c r i t e r i o n was the goodness-of-fit between the computed and actual zonal incomes and prices. PN PG CMA EXT1 EXT2 rented owned Calgary Kitchener Quebec City 0.20 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.10 0.30 0.40 0.40 0.10 0.30 0.10 0.10 0.00 0.20 0.10 0.10 1 .65 1 .67 1 .54 1 .30 1 .22 1 .56 1 .59 1 .43 1 .87 2.36 1.61 1 .70 1 .63 1.91 2.23 1 .66 1 .282 1 .300 1 .270 1 .241 1 .237 1 .350 1 .270 1 .289 St. John's Saskatoon Sudbury Vancouver Winnipeg Table 23: Externality Parameter Estimates 110 6.33 Supply Function C a l i b r a t i o n With the lack of a data base incorporating information on long run changes in the state of the housing stock suitable for estimation, the implementation of the supply system of the model has, in consequence, been based on a c a l i b r a t i o n process u t i l i z i n g the limited data available from the 1961 Census and the 1971 Census. The c a l i b r a t i o n of the supply function involves taking the "best f i t " zonal externality parameters and varying the parameters of the supply functions u n t i l the model provides the best duplication of the decade changes in the market under study. This process corresponds to setting the fixed demand curves as estimated and varying the rate of depreciation and the slope c o e f f i c i e n t on the supply functions u n t i l the best match of the actual decadal a c t i v i t y has been obtained. As detailed in Section 5.12 three parameters are required to specify the supply functions; BETA1, BETA2 and OC. BETA 1 r e f l e c t s the positioning of the depreciated quantity constraint BETA1 * QI( j ) ; BETA2 the slope c o e f f i c i e n t of the e l a s t i c section of the function. OC i s the price above which i t i s assumed that the owner w i l l provide repairs and maintenance to offset physical depreciation. This price w i l l vary from owner to owner (consequently dwelling to dwelling) and in p a r t i c u l a r between a rental dwelling and an owner-occupied dwelling. This price w i l l t y p i c a l l y be higher for rental dwellings given the on average higher debt financing commitment and the role personal pride rnay play in motivating the repair and maintenance of an owner-occupied dwelling. The assumption is made that owners w i l l not provide any 111 repairs or maintenance i f the price received does not cover normal operating costs plus financing payments. This price is computed on a CMA basis (det a i l s in APPENDIX Section A2:22) d i f f e r e n t i a t i n g by tenure only. Seperate values for BETA 1 and BETA2 are derived for the rental and owner-occupier components of the market. The best f i t parameters are reported in Table 24. In deriving these parameter values the dominant c r i t e r i o n used was the number of new dwellings created. A subordinated c r i t e r i o n was the goodness-of-fit between the computed and actual zonal incomes, quantities and prices. rental owners OC BETA 1 BETA2 OC BETA 1 BETA2 Calgary 1 .205 0 .550 0. 300 1 . 1 78 0. 675 0. 350 Kitchener 1 .253 0 .500 0. 380 1 .298 0. 500 0. 310 Quebec City 1 . 1 40 0 .725 0. 450 0 .950 0. 625 0. 400 St John's 0 .962 0 .800 0. 400 0 .986 0. 810 0. 375 Saskatoon 0 .927 0 .550 0. 400 1 .043 0. 500 0. 600 Sudbury 1 . 1 70 0 .550 0. 400 1 .031 0. 425 0. 475 Vancouver 1 . 1 93 0 .500 0. 350 1 .115 0. 600 0. 325 Winnipeg 1 .097 0 .575 0. 350 0 .979 0. 450 0. 550 Table 24: Derived BETA Parameters 1 12 6.34 Base Simulation Solutions The base simulation solution represents the model's best representation of the actual performance of the corresponding CMAs housing market over the decade. This base solution i s derived from the interaction of the estimated demand functions, the calibrated values for EXT1 and EXT2 and the estimated supply functions as represented by the BETA 1 and BETA2 parameters. That i s , for the given decade start stock as represented by the 1961 "model" dwellings and the decade end households represented by the 1971 "model" households, the base solution corresponds to the generated new or existing 1971 "model" dwellings. The model was successful in c l o s e l y simulating actual new construction and was successful in a l l o c a t i n g a l l "model" households except for one very low income renter in St. John's unable to consume s u f f i c i e n t housing to bid for any of the dwellings. This following section summarizes the model solutions using the device of the price structure diagram (see de Leeuw and Struyk(l975, pl06) for a detailed d i s c r i p t ion). The points on these curves represent s p e c i f i c model dwellings with the rental dwellings represented by an " r " , owner-occupied dwellings with an "o", new dwellings an "n" and with a "*" representing points where more than one dwelling coincide. The two horizontal l i n e s correspond respectively to the price per unit of housing service for new rental and owner-occupied dwellings. Each point on the curves corresponds to the intersection of demand and supply curves. As discussed e a r l i e r , the prices for new services w i l l serve as a c e i l i n g for the price per unit of exis t i n g services except under special neighbourhood conditions or when a dwelling provides a 113 quantity of services less than the minimum required of a new unit. The lower l i m i t to unit prices i s set by the operating cost per unit of service, OC: i f the unit cannot be rented for at least t h i s price i t w i l l not be offered in the market. The following eight diagrams correspond to the base solutions for the eight selected CMAs. D 350 300 250 .nnnnnn.n. . .n n, 200 ; oo *oo****o*o** ooo o . . .nnnnn * * *.*.* o * oo rrrrr* * r r rrr r r rrr r 1 50 I r 100 50 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 "Q" of housing Figure 06: Base Case Price-Quantity Curves (Calgary) 350 300 o nnnn*nn o 0 * 0 o *oo 0 * 0 o o 0 0 0 0 o 00 o o 0 0 * rs o. o or r , nnnn xr r r r r r r r r 100 50 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 "Q" of housing Figure 07: Base Case Price-Quantity Curves (Kitchener) 350 300 250 200 .nn.nnnn n n * . nnn *. * ooo oo o o o* o r * * * * * * r r o o oooo * 1501 r r o r * * * r r r r r r r r r o 100 50 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 "Q" o f h o u s i n g F i g u r e 08: B a s e Case P r i c e - Q u a n t i t y C u r v e s (Quebec C i t y ) 350 n.nnnnn. . . .n n, oooo o oo o ooo oo 0 0 * 0 * ***o 0 0 0 0 0 0 o 00 o o 00 o . nnnn r r r o r r r r * r * r r r r r r r r 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 "Q" o f h o u s i n g F i g u r e 09: Ba s e Case P r i c e - Q u a n t i t y C u r v e s ( S t J o h n ' s ) 350 300 250 n. nnnn ..n n.n, o o o o **o*oo******o oo o o o o o o ooo ..n.n. n , r r r * * r * r rr *r r 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 "Q" of housing Figure; 10: Base Case Price-Quantity Curves (Saskatoon) 119 , n . nnnn n . n oo o o o o o o * 0 0 * 0 * OO OOO O * O* OOO o . . . . n n n n * n * n n . * , r r r * r * * r r r r r r r r r 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 " Q " o f h o u s i n g F i g u r e 1 1 : B a s e C a s e P r i c e - Q u a n t i t y C u r v e s ( S u d b u r y ) 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 o * oo o nnnnnnnn.n r r r r r r r r r rr * r r r r rr 1 20 , nnnn.. n. . n.. n n , o o o*o*o** *ooo*o o * o** 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 "Q" of housing Figure; 12: Base Case Price-Quantity Curves (Vancouver) 350 300 250 200 | nn. nnn n n . . . n . n, o nnnnnnn...***********.***.***.***.. o o o 150| * * r o r r * r *r r* r r r r o r r 100 50 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 "Q" of housing Figure 13: Base Case Price-Quantity Curves (Winnipeg) 122 CHAPTER 07: POLICY SIMULATIONS and ANALYSIS In order to quantify the probable costs of supporting a minimum standard of housing under the six policy alternatives introduced in Chapter 2, the simulation model has been modified to "force" a l l households to consume at least a required minimum quantity of housing. This involves the subsidization of those households which would by choice consume less than a sp e c i f i e d minimum quantity of housing. The simulation procedure consists of the c a l c u l a t i o n of the subsidy required to allow the household to consume the required minimum quantity in accordance with the applicable subsidy formula for the policy form on an individual household/dwelling basis. During the a l l o c a t i o n / s o l u t i o n process the households are then forced to select any available unsubsidized dwelling in preference to a dwelling requiring a subsidy and then selecting the subsidized dwelling with the smallest required subsidy. As such the procedure estimates the minimum subsidy cost that would be incurred. Before proceeding with the p o l i c y simulations a few notes of caution are in order concerning the lim i t a t i o n s that must be placed in the subsidy cost estimates derived; 1. the nature of the supply system leaves an uncomfortably large range of uncertainty regarding the responsiveness of the exis t i n g stock to subsidy stimulation. 2. the model is r e s t r i c t e d to a ten year i n t e r v a l and available data necessitates the simulations be performed over the decade of the 1960s. 3. the l e v e l of aggregation associated with the model l i m i t s i t s marginal s e n s i t i v i t y to the introduced p o l i c i e s p a r t i c u l a r l y at the zonal l e v e l . Policy implications by broad groupings (high quality versus low qu a l i t y housing, r i c h versus poor households) are the fi n e s t l e v e l at which attention to results i s warranted. 123 4. on the demand s i d e , behaviour simply c o n s i s t s of choosing between housing and other goods and s e r v i c e s , and among the submarkets. The model ignores the p o s s i b l e e f f e c t s of the subsidy on work i n c e n t i v e s or on household formation. 5. on the supply s i d e the model r e s t r i c t s i t s e l f to the markets fo r new and e x i s t i n g housing, assuming an u n r e s t r i c t e d supply of the former. There i s no treatment of the b a s i c determinants of land c o s t s or the i n t r i c a c i e s of the land market as i t a f f e c t s the housing market. 6 . with p o l i c y s i m u l a t i o n s i t does not allow noncompliance with p o l i c y r e g u l a t i o n s or with noneconomic i n f l u e n c e s on household responses; e.g. p s y c h o l o g i c a l reasons might l e a d a household to d e c l i n e p a r t i c i p a t i o n even though i t stands to gain economically from e n r o l l i n g . 7. subsidy c o s t s do not i n c l u d e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n c o s t s ; t y p i c a l l y the more c o n s t r a i n i n g the p o l i c y , the higher the co s t of i t s a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . T h i s model, l i k e a l l models, c o n t a i n s many s i m p l i f y i n g assumptions designed to make i t manageable i n terms of p r e p a r a t i o n and use. Thus one should not expect the r e p o r t e d r e s u l t s f o r an i n d i v i d u a l CMA to pro v i d e p r e c i s e i n f o r m a t i o n on the a b s o l u t e magnitude of the subsidy c o s t s . The nature of the supply f u n c t i o n s , i n p a r t i c u l a r t h e i r inherent p r i c e responsiveness, c r e a t e the g r e a t e s t area of u n c e r t a i n t y with regard to the r e l i a b i l i t y of the evidence that can be d e r i v e d on the r e l a t i v e performance of the a l t e r n a t i v e forms of i n t e r v e n t i o n . Evidence obtained from s i m u l a t i o n s i n d i c a t e s that as the supply f u n c t i o n s become more i n e l a s t i c both t o t a l c o s t s and the percentage margin between the c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d with the income-oriented p o l i c i e s and the d i r e c t p r o d u c t - o r i e n t e d p o l i c i e s i n c r e a s e s . Thus i n s e l e c t i n g a supply system with a high p r i c e responsiveness f o r the p o l i c y s i m u l a t i o n s , the d e r i v e d c o s t s may underestimate the a c t u a l c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d with the p o l i c y . To t e s t f o r the impact of the supply e l a s t i c i t i e s the p o l i c y s i m u l a t i o n s have been run using both the d e t a i l e d m o d i f i e d model and a Canadian V e r s i o n of the o r i g i n a l Ul model 124 which incorporates supply functions more i n e l a s t i c than those associated with the modified model. 7.1 Performance Measures The central concern of t h i s thesis i s to provide estimates of the costs to the government that would be incurred i f housing programs were structured to r e f l e c t one of six p o t e n t i a l l y a l t e r n a t i v e general p o l i c i e s . The major explanation for the difference in the incurred subsidy costs w i l l l i e with the "market e f f i c i e n c y " of the p o l i c y . In order to evalute subsidy e f f i c i e n c i e s , Carlton and F e r r i e r a (1977, p228) suggest two alt e r n a t i v e measures. One i s the "recipient expenditure" or "earmarking r a t i o " (ER), which measures the change in housing expenditure among recipients per d o l l a r of allowance cost. It indicates the percentage of the subsidy d o l l a r s received actually used for increasing housing expenditure. The other, which they term a "market e f f i c i e n c y " measure, is a cost-standardized measure of housing change within submarkets. It measures the percent increase in the quantity of housing consumed in selected groupings of households, normalized by dividing by the average net d o l l a r s transferred to recipients. Carlton and F e r r i e r a group their "model" household into the bottom sixth and the bottom t h i r d , with normalization being in terms of the transfer to the bottom t h i r d households. Their example of a "market e f f i c i e n c y " measure of 0.30 for the bottom t h i r d indicates the following: for an allowance program that involved an average net transfer of $20 per month to each household in the bottom t h i r d , the measure of 0.30 indicates a 6% r i s e in the average housing consumption within the bottom t h i r d 1 25 o f t h e m a r k e t . The n o r m a l v a l u e r a n g e f o r t h e " m a r k e t e f f i c i e n c y " m e a s u r e i s f r o m z e r o t o two. F o r e x a m p l e , a p r o g r a m t h a t p r o d u c e s no c h a n g e i n h o u s i n g c o n s u m p t i o n w o u l d h a v e an e f f i c i e n c y o f z e r o . A p r o g r a m w h i c h l e f t h o u s i n g p r i c e s u n c h a n g e d a n d f o r w h i c h r e c i p i e n t s s p e n t t h e i r e n t i r e a l l o w a n c e on an a d d i t i o n a l q u a n t i t y w o u l d h a v e an e f f i c i e n c y o f a p p r o x i m a t e l y 2.0. o 126 7.2 Implementation of the P o l i c i e s The standard procedure used by the Urban Institute to implement demand side subsidies involved rerunning the model with incomes adjusted to r e f l e c t the applicable subsidy. Supply side subsidies were simulated by adjusting the price per unit of housing services for new dwellings (PN). The differences between the predicted decade-end housing market conditions with and without the allowance are then interpreted as a measure of the change that would have resulted i f the p a r t i c u l a r subsidy had been in effect during the ten years. For t h i s study the model has been modified so that a l l subsidy amounts are calculated i n t e r n a l l y . The procedure u t i l i z e d involves specifying the required minimum quantity of housing services to be consumed (separate values for owner-occupiers and renters) with the model c a l c u l a t i n g for each individual dwelling either the required income l e v e l at which a household would choose to consume the minimum quantity or the price discount required so that the household would, by choice, consume the minimum quantity. In the former cases, the subsidy i s taken as being the required increase in income; in the l a t t e r , the subsidy i s the cost of providing the price discount. The following section b r i e f l y reviews the method used for each of the six alternative policy forms considered. a) Income Subsidy. An income subsidy i s taken as the difference between the income l e v e l at which the household would choose to consume the required minimum quantity and i t s unsubsidized income l e v e l . In c a l c u l a t i n g the subsidized income the expenditure share i s adjusted in an i t e r a t i v e process to r e f l e c t the share's dependence on prices and the income l e v e l . 1 27 b) C o n s t r a i n e d C a s h S u b s i d y . The c o n s t r a i n e d c a s h s u b s i d y c o r r e s p o n d s t o t h e I n c o m e S u b s i d y b u t w i t h t h e maximum s u b s i d y amoun t l i m i t e d t o t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s e x p e n d i t u r e on h o u s i n g . T h a t i s , t h e maximum s u b s i d y amount made a v a i l a b l e c o r r e s p o n d s t o t h e m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y t i m e s t h e p e r u n i t p r i c e a t w h i c h t h e d w e l l i n g w i l l s u p p l y t h e r e q u i r e d m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y . c ) D i r e c t C o n s t r a i n e d S u b s i d y . T h i s s u b s i d y f o r m c o r r e s p o n d s t o t h e t h e o r e t i c a l f o r m u l a t i o n w h e r e h o u s e h o l d s , i n b e i n g s u b s i d i z e d t o consume t h e m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f h o u s i n g , a r e made no b e t t e r o f f ( i . e . t h e y r e m a i n a t t h e same u t i l i t y l e v e l ) . B e c a u s e v e r y l o w i n c o m e h o u s e h o l d s t e n d e d t o be f o r c e d f r o m t h e m a r k e t u n d e r t h i s s e v e r e c o n s t r a i n t , t h e s i m u l a t i o n s h a v e b e e n p e r f o r m e d u n d e r a " m i n i m i z a t i o n o f u t i l i t y i n c r e a s e " c o n s t r a i n t . T h e i m p a c t o f t h e l e s s e n i n g o f t h i s c o n s t r a i n t i a an i n c r e a s e i n t h e a v e r a g e s u b s i d y amount o f t h e o r d e r o f 5% t o 10%. d ) D i r e c t Q u a n t i t y S u b s i d y . T h i s f o r m o f s u b s i d y i n v o l v e s p r o v i d i n g t h e h o u s e h o l d w i t h an a d d i t i o n a l q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s " d i r e c t l y . The q u a n t i t y p r o v i d e d i s t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y a n d t h e l e v e l t h a t w o u l d be demanded i f u n s u b s i d i z e d . The s u b s i d y amount c o r r e s p o n d s t o t h e i n c r e a s e i n q u a n t i t y t i m e s t h e m a r k e t p r i c e a t t h e m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y . T h i s r e s u l t s i n t h e h o u s e h o l d p a y i n g f o r a n y r e s u l t i n g p r i c e i n f l a t i o n a s s o c i a t e d w i t h i t s u n s u b s i d i z e d l e v e l o f c o n s u m p t i o n . 128 e ) D i r e c t E x p e n d i t u r e S u b s i d y . T h i s s u b s i d y i s c o m p a r a b l e w i t h a d i r e c t q u a n t i t y s u b s i d y e x c e p t t h a t t h e h o u s e h o l d i s c o m p e n s a t e d f o r t h e f u l l i n c r e a s e i n e x p e n d i t u r e r e q u i r e d . The s u b s i d y amoun t c o r r e s p o n d s t o t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e c o s t o f s u p p l y i n g t h e m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y a n d t h e e x p e n d i t u r e t h e h o u s e h o l d w o u l d make by c h o i c e . f ) D i r e c t P r i c e S u b s i d y . The c a l c u l a t i o n o f t h i s s u b s i d y amoun t i n v o l v e s r e d u c i n g t h e e f f e c t i v e p r i c e t o t h e h o u s e h o l d u n t i l i t w i l l c o n s u m e t h e r e q u i r e d m i n i m u m by c h o i c e . The r e q u i r e d s u b s i d y i s t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e s u p p l y c o s t f o r t h e m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y a n d t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s e x p e n d i t u r e a t t h e r e d u c e d p r i c e . The m a j o r p r o b l e m e n c o u n t e r e d i n s i m u l a t i n g t h e p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s w a s ' w i t h r e g a r d t o t h e s e l e c t i o n o f m e a n i n g f u l m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y v a l u e s . The v a r i a b i l i t y o f t h e u n i t o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e b e t w e e n CMAs a n d t h e h e t e r o g e n e i t y o f t h e h o u s i n g s t o c k make i t d i f f i c u l t t o p r o v i d e a c o r r e s p o n d e n c e b e t w e e n t h e m o d e l ' s t h e o r e t i c a l n o t i o n o f a m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f h o u s i n g a n d p h y s i c a l r e a l i t y . The o n l y r e f e r e n c e p o i n t a v a i l a b l e i s t h e m o d e l ' s " m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n " a n d c o n s e q u e n t l y t h e p o l i c y s i m u l a t i o n s h a v e b e e n b a s e d on a r e q u i r e d m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y t h a t r e f l e c t s a p e r c e n t a g e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h t h e " m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n " . W i t h t h e m o d e l ' s " i n f i n i t e " s u p p l y o f new d w e l l i n g s t h e r e l a t i v e p o s i t i o n i n g o f t h e " s u p p o r t e d q u a n t i t y " c o n s t r a i n t a n d t h e " m i n i m u m - q u a n t i t y o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n " c o n s t r a i n t i s a c r i t i c a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n . I f t h e s u p p o r t e d q u a n t i t y l i e s b e l o w t h e m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n , s u p p o r t e d 129 h o u s e h o l d s w i l l o n l y be a b l e t o o c c u p y " r e n o v a t e d " d w e l l i n g s f r o m t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k . I f t h e two c o n s t r a i n t s m a t c h , s u p p o r t e d h o u s e h o l d s c a n consume s e r v i c e s f r o m new o r e x i s t i n g s o u r c e s . I n o r d e r t o t e s t f o r t h e s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e r e l a t i v e p o s i t i o n i n g o f t h e " s u p p o r t e d q u a n t i t y " a n d t h e " m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n " , f o u r d i f f e r e n t s c e n a r i o s h a v e b e e n s i m u l a t e d f o r e a c h CMA o f w h i c h t w o r e f l e c t s i t u a t i o n s w h e r e s u p p o r t i s r e s t r i c t e d t o t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k o n l y a n d two a l l o w r e c i p i e n t s t o o c c u p y new d w e l l i n g s a l s o . S i n c e t h e s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l u t i l i z e s o n l y 100 m o d e l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s a 1% p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e c o r r e s p o n d s t o one m o d e l h o u s e h o l d r e c e i v i n g a s u b s i d y . C o n s e q u e n t l y t h e q u a n t u m n a t u r e o f t h e m o d e l , w h i c h p r e v e n t s f r a c t i o n a l p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s , w i l l d i s t o r t t h e d e r i v e d c o s t s o f i n t e r v e n t i o n i f p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s a r e l o w . The l o w e s t s u p p o r t e d l e v e l h a s b e e n s e t a t a q u a n t i t y c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o 85% o f t h e new c o n s t r u c t i o n q u a n t i t y . T h i s q u a n t i t y r e s u l t s i n a p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e r a n g i n g f r o m 2% t o 5% a c r o s s t h e e i g h t s e l e c t e d C M A s . Two s c e n a r i o s w i t h t h e m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y a t 99% a n d 100% o f t h e new q u a n t i t y r e s p e c t i v e l y w e r e i n c l u d e d t o e v a l u a t e t h e i m p a c t o f t h e c o n s t r a i n t on t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f new d w e l l i n g s t o s u b s i d i z e d h o u s e h o l d s . T h e s c e n a r i o s o f f e r c o m p a r a b l e l e v e l s o f s u p p o r t b u t w i t h t h e f i r s t c a s e a l l s u b s i d i z e d h o u s e h o l d s mus t o c c u p y e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s ; i n t h e l a t t e r new d w e l l i n g s may be o c c u p i e d . The f i n a l s c e n a r i o i s a t 115% o f t h e new c o n s t r u c t i o n q u a n t i t y t o a l l o w t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f t h e same p e r c e n t a g e c h a n g e i n t h e m i n i m u m l e v e l a b o v e a n d b e l o w t h e 100% o f t h e new q u a n t i t y l e v e l . 130 7 . 3 S i m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s The s i m u l a t i o n r e s u l t s o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l s show i m p o r t a n t d i f f e r e n c e s f r o m t h o s e one may a n t i c i p a t e f r o m a s t a t i c a n a l y s i s o f t h e b e h a v i o u r o f a s i n g l e h o u s e h o l d . A m a j o r r e a s o n f o r t h i s f a c t i s t h a t t h e s i m u l a t i o n s r e f l e c t t h e n e t e f f e c t o f a mode o f i n t e r v e n t i o n on s e v e r a l i s o l a t e d , b u t i n t e r d e p e n d e n t s u b m a r k e t s a n d on a m i x t u r e o f h o u s e h o l d s w i t h d i f f e r e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a n d i n c o m e l e v e l s . S i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s i n r e s p o n s e t o s i m i l a r s u b s i d y f o r m s o c c u r a c r o s s t h e e i g h t s e l e c t e d C M A s , r e f l e c t i n g d i f f e r e n c e s i n r e c i p i e n t a n d s u b m a r k e t c o n c e n t r a t i o n s a n d t h e r e l a t i v e p o s i t i o n i n g o f t h e p r i c e f o r new a n d e x i s t i n g " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s . W i t h t h e u n c e r t a i n t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e m o d e l , c a r e mus t be t a k e n i n b o t h i n t e r p r e t i n g t h e r e s u l t s f r o m t h e i n d i v i d u a l p o l i c y s c e n a r i o s a n d u n d e r t a k i n g c o m p a r a t i v e a n a l y s e s b e t w e e n C M A s . I t s h o u l d be r e m e m b e r e d t h a t t h e s i m u l a t i o n s a r e b a s e d on d a t e d C e n s u s a n d SHU d a t a a n d t h e r e s u l t s p r e s e n t e d do n o t n e c e s s a r i l y r e p r e s e n t t h e o u t c o m e t h a t w o u l d h a p p e n i f t h e p o l i c y i n t e r v e n t i o n o c c u r r e d t o d a y . F i r s t , t h e m o d e l i s a l o n g r u n m o d e l a n d a t t e m p t s t o p r o v i d e a n e s t i m a t e o f t h e l o n g r u n i m p a c t o f t h e p o l i c y . T h u s , i n i n t e r p r e t i n g t h e r e s u l t s i t mus t be k e p t i n m i n d t h a t s h o r t r u n f l u c t u a t i o n s i n p r i c e s a n d r e n t s , f o r e x a m p l e , w h i c h m i g h t r e s u l t f r o m a r a p i d i n t r o d u c t i o n o f p r o g r a m s c a n n o t be e s t i m a t e d b y t h e m o d e l . S e c o n d , t h e d a t a f o r t h e m o d e l r e p r e s e n t s t h e p e r i o d 1961 - 1 9 7 1 , n o t t h e i m m e d i a t e p a s t d e c a d e . I t i s t h e r e f o r e t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l CMA o v e r t h i s 1961 - 1 9 7 1 p e r i o d r a t h e r t h a n c u r r e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s t h a t t h e s i m u l a t i o n s a r e b a s e d o n . 131 A r e v i e w o f t h e o v e r a l l p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e p o l i c y s i m u l a t i o n s i n d i c a t e s a c o n s i s t e n t r e l a t i v e p e r f o r m a n c e , i n t e r m s o f c o s t , o f t h e a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c y o p t i o n s . F o r a l l CMAs t h e c o s t s r e f l e c t a r a n k i n g o f t h e i n c o m e p o l i c y f i r s t , f o l l o w e d by t h e c o n s t r a i n e d c a s h , t h e n t h e d i r e c t q u a n t i t y , e x p e n d i t u r e a n d p r i c e p o l i c i e s w i t h t h e d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d p o l i c y , a s e x p e c t e d , w i t h t h e l o w e s t c o s t . S t a t i c a n a l y s i s w o u l d s u g g e s t t h a t t h e a v e r a g e c o s t u n d e r a d i r e c t q u a n t i t y s u b s i d y w o u l d be l e s s t h a n f o r a c o m p a r a b l e s c e n a r i o u n d e r a d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e s u b s i d y . The r e s u l t s o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e m o d e l f o r some CMAs t e n d t o i n d i c a t e t h e o p p o s i t e . I n t h e mos t p a r t t h e s e r e s u l t s a r i s e f r o m t h e d e p e n d e n c e o f t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s e x p e n d i t u r e s h a r e on i t s i n c o m e l e v e l . D u r i n g t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f s u b s i d i e s an i t e r a t i v e s o l u t i o n p r o c e s s i s u t i l i z e d w h e r e i n t h e e x p e n d i t u r e s h a r e i s r e c o m p u t e d t o r e f l e c t c h a n g e s i n t h e a f t e r - s u b s i d y i n c o m e l e v e l a n d c h a n g e s i n t h e p r i c e a n d q u a n t i t y o f h o u s i n g c o n s u m e d . The d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e s c e n a r i o s h a v e b e e n e s t i m a t e d w i t h t h e h o u s e h o l d f a c i n g i t s p r e - s u b s i d y p r i c e a n d q u a n t i t y ; t h e o t h e r d i r e c t p r o d u c t s c e n a r i o s a r e b a s e d on t h e r e s u l t a n t p r i c e a n d q u a n t i t y a n d a s a r e s u l t t y p i c a l l y r e f l e c t a l o w e r e x p e n d i t u r e s h a r e f a c t o r a n d h i g h e r r e q u i r e d s u b s i d i e s . The m a g n i t u d e o f t h e l e v e l o f s u p p o r t u n d e r c o m p a r a b l e p o l i c i e s v a r i e s s i g n i f i c a n t l y a c r o s s t h e C M A s , b u t w i t h t h e t e n t a t i v e m e t h o d by w h i c h t h e " m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n " a n d c o n s e q u e n t l y t h e l e v e l s o f s u p p o r t a r e d e r i v e d , one c a n n o t p l a c e a n y i m p o r t a n c e on a n i n t e r - C M A c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e a v e r a g e s u b s i d y c o s t s a n d p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s . T h i s p r o b l e m , c o m b i n e d w i t h t h e n a t u r e o f t h e s u p p l y s y s t e m , t h e l o n g - r u n f o r m a t o f t h e m o d e l a n d t h e u s e o f d a t a f r o m t h e 1960 d e c a d e means t h a t t h e o n l y s t r o n g c o n c l u s i o n s t h a t c a n be d r a w n f r o m t h e r e s u l t s a r e w i t h r e g a r d t o t h e r e l a t i v e 1 32 m a g n i t u d e o f t h e c o s t m a r g i n s a n d t h e i n d i c a t e d p e r c e n t a g e s u b s i d y l e a k a g e t o t h e c o n s u m p t i o n o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s . W i t h i n t h e s e r e s t r i c t i o n s t h e s u b s i d y l e a k a g e a n d t h e c o s t m a r g i n s b e t w e e n t h e " i n c o m e " p o l i c y a n d t h e t h r e e g e n e r a l " d i r e c t p r o d u c t " o p t i o n s ; t h e " d i r e c t q u a n t i t y " , t h e " d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e " a n d t h e " d i r e c t p r i c e " , a r e o f g r e a t e s t i n t e r e s t . I t s h o u l d be n o t e d t h a t a s f o r m u l a t e d t h e " d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e " p o l i c y t h e o r e t i c a l l y r e p r e s e n t s a s i t u a t i o n w h e r e t h e h o u s e h o l d r e c e i v e s t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n wha t i t w o u l d s p e n d on t h e d w e l l i n g i t o c c u p i e s a n d t h e r e q u i r e d e x p e n d i t u r e a t t h e s u p p o r t e d q u a n t i t y l e v e l ; a one h u n d r e d p e r c e n t e a r m a r k i n g o f t h e s u b s i d y . The v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e r e p o r t e d r e s u l t s o c c u r b e c a u s e t h e p o l i c y p e r f o r m a n c e c r i t e r i a c o m p a r e t h e s u b s i d i z e d s o l u t i o n t o t h e n o n -s u b s i d i z e d b a s e s o l u t i o n s d e t a i l e d i n C h a p t e r 6 . C o n s e q u e n t l y a s r e c i p i e n t s s w i t c h f r o m t h e d w e l l i n g t h e y o c c u p i e d i n t h e b a s e s o l u t i o n t o a n a l t e r n a t i v e d w e l l i n g t h e e a r m a r k i n g c o e f f i c i e n t may i n d i c a t e a s u b s i d y l e a k a g e . The f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n p r o v i d e s a b r i e f r e v i e w o f t h e p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e a l t e r n a t i v e f o r m s o f i n t e r v e n t i o n a c r o s s t h e e i g h t s e l e c t e d CMAs a s d e r i v e d u s i n g t h e m o d i f i e d m o d e l . A d d i t i o n a l d e t a i l e d r e s u l t s , d e r i v e d u s i n g b o t h t h e m o d i f i e d m o d e l a n d a C a n a d i a n V e r s i o n o f t h e o r i g i n a l U l m o d e l , t h a t i n c l u d e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s a n d e f f i c i e n c y a n d e a r m a r k i n g c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e shown on a CMA b a s i s i n A P P E N D I X S e c t i o n A 5 . 0 1 . 133 7 . 3 1 P e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e I n d i v i d u a l CMAs a . ) C a l g a r y . I n 1971 C a l g a r y h a d a r e p o r t e d p o p u l a t i o n o f 4 0 3 , 3 1 9 w i t h a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1 2 1 , 1 0 0 h o u s e h o l d s . D u r i n g t h e 1 9 6 1 - 7 1 d e c a d e i t h a d one o f t h e h i g h e s t r a t e s o f p o p u l a t i o n g r o . w t h , b u t i n c o m e g r o w t h l a g g e d b e h i n d t h e m e d i a n f o r t h e C M A s . S u p p o r t e d Q u a n t i t y 85%QN 99%QN 100%QN 115%QN [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 1 ] [ 2 ] $ % $ % $ % • $ % i n c o m e 1 1 5 . 2 , 29 2 7 8 . 8 1 1 5 0 . 8 39 8 4 . 1 33 c o n s t r a i n e d c a s h 7 3 . 0 46 5 8 . 3 53 4 6 . 4 43 7 3 . 1 38 d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d 9 . 2 364 1 1 . 1 201 3 . 0 678 4 . 8 634 d i r e c t q u a n t i t y 3 8 . 2 87 3 5 . 0 88 2 2 . 9 87 3 2 . 2 87 d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e 3 3 . 5 100 31 . 1 100 2 2 . 1 91 2 9 . 8 94 d i r e c t p r i c e 2 9 . 1 1 1 5 2 8 . 0 1 1 2 1 7 . 1 1 1 7 2 3 . 9 1 17 % h o u s e h o l d s s u b s i d i z e d 2 4 5 8 n o t e [ 1 ] t h e a v e r a g e m o n t h l y s u b s i d y p e r r e c i p i e n t [ 2 ] t h e e a r m a r k i n g c o e f f i c i e n t ; % o f s u b s i d y u s e d t o i n c r e a s e h o u s i n g c o n s u m p t i o n [ 3 ] s u p p o r t e d q u a n t i t y c o r r e s p o n d s t o % o f " m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n " T a b l e 2 5 : A v e r a g e M o n t h l y S u b s i d y a n d E a r m a r k i n g C o e f f i c i e n t s [ C a l g a r y ] The r e s u l t s p r e s e n t e d t y p i f y a CMA w h e r e t h e r e i s a s u b s t a n t i a l p r i c e d i s c o u n t p e r u n i t o f h o u s i n g i n t h e l o w - q u a l i t y s u b m a r k e t s . T h i s r e s u l t s i n t h e a v e r a g e , s u b s i d y c o s t s ( c o l u m n [ 1 ] ) a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e " e x i s t i n g s t o c k " o n l y s c e n a r i o s b e i n g s i g n i f i c a n t l y h i g h e r t h a n t h o s e w h e r e r e c i p i e n t s c a n o c c u p y new d w e l l i n g s . I n p a r t i c u l a r , a c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e 99% a n d 100% s c e n a r i o s i n d i c a t e s t h e c r i t i c a l i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e new c o n s t r u c t i o n 1 34 c o n s t r a i n t e s p e c i a l l y w i t h r e g a r d t o t h e " i n c o m e " p o l i c y ; t h e c o s t when u p g r a d i n g a r i s e s f r o m t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k o n l y i s i n d i c a t e d t o be i n e x c e s s o f 500% g r e a t e r t h a n t h e c o s t when new d w e l l i n g s a r e made a v a i l a b l e . The p o t e n t i a l v a r i a t i o n i n s u b s i d y l e a k a g e a t v a r i o u s l e v e l s o f s u p p o r t i s i n d i c a t e d by t h e " i n c o m e " p o l i c y . W i t h 29% a n d 11% e a r m a r k i n g c o e f f i c i e n t s r e s p e c t i v e l y , t h e " e x i s t i n g s t o c k " o n l y s c e n a r i o s a r e o u t p e r f o r m e d by t h e 100% a n d 115% s c e n a r i o s a t 39% a n d 33% a s a r e s u l t o f t h e c o n s t r a i n t on t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f s u i t a b l e d w e l l i n g s . T h e s e d i f f e r e n c e s o c c u r a s a r e s u l t o f a l i m i t e d s u p p l y o f e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s s u i t a b l e f o r u p g r a d i n g . A c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e 85% a n d 100% s c e n a r i o s i n d i c a t e s t h e r e l a t i v e l y c o n s i s t e n t p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c i e s . I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e a v e r a g e c o s t s u n d e r a " d i r e c t q u a n t i t y " o r " d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e " o p t i o n i n b o t h s c e n a r i o s c o r r e s p o n d t o a p p r o x i m a t e l y o n e - t h i r d t h o s e f o r t h e p u r e i n c o m e o p t i o n . U n d e r t h e 99% s c e n a r i o t h e i n c o m e o p t i o n c o m p o u n d s t h e l i m i t e d a v a i l a b i l i t y o f s u i t a b l e e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s w i t h t h e " d i r e c t p r o d u c t " o p t i o n s c o s t i n g , a t m o s t , 15% o f t h e c o s t u n d e r t h e " i n c o m e " o p t i o n . T h e " c o n s t r a i n e d c a s h " o p t i o n , w i t h t h e s u b s i d y amoun t l i m i t e d t o t h e e x p e n d i t u r e on h o u s i n g , h a s a n a v e r a g e c o s t c o n s i s t e n t l y t w i c e t h a t u n d e r t h e " d i r e c t p r o d u c t " s u b s i d y . I n s u m m a r y , t h e s i m u l a t i o n s f o r C a l g a r y h i g h l i g h t t h e p o t e n t i a l d r a s t i c i m p a c t o f a c o n s t r a i n e d s u p p l y o f h o u s i n g u n d e r a p u r e i n c o m e p o l i c y , t h e a d v a n t a g e o f c o n s t r a i n i n g s u c h i n c o m e s u b s i d i e s t o t h e e x p e n d i t u r e on h o u s i n g a n d t h e c o n s i s t e n t p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e " d i r e c t p r o d u c t " o p t i o n s . 135 b . ) K i t c h e n e r . T h i s C M A , w i t h a p o p u l a t i o n o f 2 2 6 , 8 4 6 a n d a p p r o x i m a t e l y 6 6 , 5 0 0 h o u s e h o l d s i n 1 9 7 1 , s h o w e d a b o v e a v e r a g e g r o w t h i n b o t h p o p u l a t i o n a n d i n c o m e d u r i n g t h e 1 9 6 0 s . I t h a d a r e l a t i v e l y l o w 12.7% o f i t s h o u s e h o l d s w i t h i n c o m e s u n d e r $ 5 , 0 0 0 i n 1971 a n d d i s p l a y e d a s t a b l e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k w i t h o u t p r i c e d i s c o u n t i n g a t t h e l o w e r e n d o f t h e m a r k e t . S u p p o r t e d Q u a n t i t y 85%QN 99%QN 100%QN 115%QN [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 1 ] [ 2 ] $ % $ % $ % $ % i n c o m e 6 4 . 7 41 7 4 . 7 38 8 6 . 4 37 3 2 0 . 4 12 c o n s t r a i n e d c a s h 61 . 8 42 6 9 . 0 41 7 5 . 4 42 1 5 9 . 9 23 d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d 1 7 . 6 296 1 6 . 9 250 7 . 4 421 5 .1 516 d i r e c t q u a n t i t y 2 8 . 3 93 4 1 . 2 86 3 4 . 5 85 3 5 . 1 81 d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e 3 0 . 5 101 3 3 . 2 99 3 1 . 0 95 4 0 . 2 88 d i r e c t p r i c e 2 1 . 4 124 2 3 . 6 1 20 2 7 . 0 1 18 3 5 . 9 104 % h o u s e h o l d s s u b s i d i z e d 2 5 6 25 n o t e [ 1 ] t h e a v e r a g e m o n t h l y s u b s i d y p e r r e c i p i e n t [ 2 ] t h e e a r m a r k i n g c o e f f i c i e n t ; % o f s u b s i d y u s e d t o i n c r e a s e h o u s i n g c o n s u m p t i o n [ 3 ] s u p p o r t e d q u a n t i t y c o r r e s p o n d s t o % o f " m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n " T a b l e 2 6 : A v e r a g e M o n t h l y S u b s i d y a n d E a r m a r k i n g C o e f f i c i e n t s [ K i t c h e n e r ] U n l i k e C a l g a r y , t h e f o u r s c e n a r i o s f o r K i t c h e n e r r e f l e c t a s t e a d y i n c r e a s e i n t h e a v e r a g e s u b s i d y ( c o l u m n [ 1 ] ) a s t h e s u p p o r t e d q u a n t i t y i s i n c r e a s e d . The o n l y e x c e p t i o n i s t h e " d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d " p o l i c y w h e r e t h e s u p p o r t r e q u i r e d f o r t h e two " e x i s t i n g " o n l y s i t u a t i o n s g r e a t l y e x c e e d s t h a t f o r t h e o t h e r two s c e n a r i o s a s a r e s u l t o f t h e l a r g e i n c r e a s e s i n u t i l i t y t h a t mus t be p r o v i d e d t o i n d u c e t h e s u b s i d i z e d h o u s e h o l d s t o u p g r a d e . The 136 s m a l l m a r g i n b e t w e e n t h e " i n c o m e " a n d " c o n s t r a i n e d c a s h " o p t i o n s i n d i c a t e s t h e m a r k e t ' s a b i l i t y t o s u p p l y t h e a d d i t i o n a l h o u s i n g r e q u i r e d w i t h o u t a l a r g e p r i c e i n c r e a s e . The h i g h p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e o c c u r r i n g u n d e r t h e 115% s c e n a r i o i s a s a r e s u l t o f a c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k i n t h e r a n g e o f 100% t o 115% o f t h e new q u a n t i t y c o n s t r a i n t . T h u s w h i l e t h e 15% i n c r e a s e i n t h e s u p p o r t e d l e v e l i n C a l g a r y i n d u c e d l e s s t h a n a 100% i n c r e a s e i n t h e p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e , t h e same i n c r e a s e i n K i t c h e n e r r e s u l t e d i n a n i n c r e a s e i n e x c e s s o f 400%. W i t h K i t c h e n e r ' s s t a b l e h o u s i n g m a r k e t a n d a b o v e a v e r a g e i n c o m e g r o w t h r a t e t h e a v e r a g e m a r g i n i n t h e c o s t s u n d e r t h e a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c i e s was l e s s t h a n t h e a v e r a g e f o r t h e e i g h t C M A s . c . ) Q u e b e c C i t y . T h i s c i t y was s l i g h t l y l a r g e r t h a n C a l g a r y i n 1 9 7 1 , w i t h a c o m p a r a b l e g r o w t h ( b e l o w a v e r a g e ) i n i n c o m e s a n d p o p u l a t i o n , b u t a s l i g h t l y h i g h e r number o f p o o r h o u s e h o l d s . A m a j o r d i f f e r e n c e , h o w e v e r , l i e s i n t h e p r o p e n s i t y o f t h e h o u s e h o l d s t o c o n s u m e h o u s i n g . F o r Q u e b e c C i t y t h e e s t i m a t e d s h a r e o f d i s p o s a b l e i n c o m e s p e n t on h o u s i n g i s f r e q u e n t l y u p t o 15 p e r c e n t a g e p o i n t s l e s s t h a n t h a t f o r c o m p a r a b l e h o u s e h o l d g r o u p i n g s i n C a l g a r y . 137 S u p p o r t e d Q u a n t i t y 85%QN 99%QN 100%QN 115%QN [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 1 ] t 2 ] $ % $ % $ % $ % i n c o m e 6 6 . 3 37 9 0 . 1 35 9 9 . 4 35 1 5 9 . 0 23 c o n s t r a i n e d c a s h 51 . 5 47 6 6 . 5 48 7 3 . 3 47 1 0 9 . 9 34 d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d 10 .1 283 1 2 . 9 275 9 . 3 387 9 . 5 360 d i r e c t q u a n t i t y 3 2 . 0 90 3 9 . 9 89 3 9 . 3 88 4 0 . 7 85 d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e 2 8 . 6 100 3 5 . 5 99 3 5 . 5 98 3 8 . 7 92 d i r e c t p r i c e 2 0 . 7 1 17 2 7 . 5 1 16 3 0 . 2 1 1 5 3 2 . 9 113 % h o u s e h o l d s s u b s i d i z e d 5 8 8 15 n o t e [ 1 ] t h e a v e r a g e m o n t h l y s u b s i d y p e r r e c i p i e n t [ 2 ] t h e e a r m a r k i n g c o e f f i c i e n t ; % o f s u b s i d y u s e d t o i n c r e a s e h o u s i n g c o n s u m p t i o n [ 3 ] s u p p o r t e d q u a n t i t y c o r r e s p o n d s t o % o f " m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n " T a b l e 2 7 : A v e r a g e M o n t h l y S u b s i d y a n d E a r m a r k i n g C o e f f i c i e n t s <t [ Q u e b e c C i t y ] A s a r e s u l t o f t h e l o w e r e x p e n d i t u r e s on h o u s i n g l e v e l s , t h e r e l a t i v e c o s t s o f t h e s u b s i d i e s a r e more m o d e s t i n Q u e b e c C i t y t h a n i n C a l g a r y . G e n e r a l l y , t h e m a r g i n b e t w e e n t h e c o s t s u n d e r t h e " d i r e c t p r o d u c t " a n d " i n c o m e " o p t i o n s i s o n l y s l i g h t l y i n e x c e s s o f a f a c t o r o f 2 . The i m p o r t a n t t r e n d t o n o t e i s t h e i n c r e a s i n g s p r e a d b e t w e e n t h e c o s t s u n d e r t h e demand o r i e n t a t e d o p t i o n s a n d t h e s u p p l y o r i e n t a t e d o p t i o n s a s t h e s u p p o r t e d q u a n t i t y i s i n c r e a s e d . The i n c r e a s e f r o m t h e 85% s c e n a r i o t o t h e 115% s c e n a r i o u n d e r t h e " i n c o m e " o p t i o n i s a p p r o x i m a t e l y 140% f o r t h e a v e r a g e c o s t ; 650% f o r t h e t o t a l c o s t . U n d e r t h e " d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e " o p t i o n t h e i n c r e a s e i n t h e a v e r a g e c o s t i s o n l y 47%, w h i l e t h a t f o r t h e t o t a l c o s t i s 315%. 138 d . ) S t . J o h n ' s . I n 1971 S t . J o h n ' s h a d a p o p u l a t i o n o f 1 3 1 , 8 1 4 w i t h a p p r o x i m a t e l y 2 8 , 7 0 0 h o u s e h o l d s . D u r i n g 1 9 6 1 - 7 1 i t h a d a b e l o w a v e r a g e r a t e o f i n c r e a s e i n p o p u l a t i o n a n d h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e s , a n d i n 1971 h a d 28% o f i t s h o u s e h o l d s w i t h i n c o m e s b e l o w $ 5 , 0 0 0 . On t h i s l a t t e r b a s i s S t . J o h n ' s was t h e " p o o r e s t " CMA c o n s i d e r e d . S u p p o r t e d Q u a n t i t y 85%QN 99%QN 100%QN 115%QN [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 1 ] [ 2 ] $ % $ % $ % $ % i n c o m e 1 1 9 . 8 37 2 7 3 . 3 19 1 0 0 . 6 37 1 4 9 . 9 27 c o n s t r a i n e d c a s h 8 6 . 3 52 1 0 1 . 3 51 7 7 . 0 48 1 1 7 . 7 40 d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d 1 2 . 6 258 2 0 . 7 229 21 . 2 180 21 . 7 213 d i r e c t q u a n t i t y 3 7 . 7 86 41 . 0 90 4 0 . 0 92 4 4 . 1 92 d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e 31 . 6 1 03 4 6 . 7 102 3 7 . 2 98 4 3 . 7 95 d i r e c t p r i c e 3 6 . 1 124 4 4 . 1 1 1 7 31 . 2 1 19 3 7 . 1 1 16 % h o u s e h o l d s s u b s i d i z e d 5 8 10 16 n o t e x [ 1 ] t h e a v e r a g e m o n t h l y s u b s i d y p e r r e c i p i e n t [ 2 ] t h e e a r m a r k i n g c o e f f i c i e n t ; % o f s u b s i d y u s e d t o i n c r e a s e h o u s i n g c o n s u m p t i o n [ 3 ] s u p p o r t e d q u a n t i t y c o r r e s p o n d s t o % o f " m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n " T a b l e 2 8 : A v e r a g e M o n t h l y S u b s i d y a n d E a r m a r k i n g C o e f f i c i e n t s [ S t . J o h n ' s ] A s w i t h C a l g a r y , t h i s m a r k e t h a s a s u b s t a n t i a l p r i c e d i s c o u n t p e r u n i t o f h o u s i n g i n t h e l o w - q u a l i t y s u b m a r k e t s . C o n s e q u e n t l y , u n d e r t h e " i n c o m e " p o l i c i e s t h e " e x i s t i n g s t o c k " o n l y s c e n a r i o s r e f l e c t a v e r a g e c o s t s g r e a t e r t h a n t h o s e a r i s i n g when new d w e l l i n g s a r e made a v a i l a b l e . T h u s w h i l e t h e m a r g i n b e t w e e n t h e " d i r e c t p r o d u c t " a n d " i n c o m e " o p t i o n s f o r t h e 85% a n d 99% s c e n a r i o s r e s p e c t i v e l y i s a f a c t o r o f 3 . 5 a n d 6 . 0 , t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g m a r g i n f o r t h e 100% a n d 115% s c e n a r i o s i s o n l y 2 . 5 a n d 3 . 0 . S t . J o h n ' s 139 p r o v i d e s a g o o d e x a m p l e o f t h e p o t e n t i a l l y h i g h c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a t t e m p t i n g t o u p g r a d e ( s u p p o r t ) h o u s i n g s t a n d a r d s i n a " p o o r " c i t y t h r o u g h i n c o m e s u b s i d i e s . e . ) S a s k a t o o n . S a s k a t o o n h a d a 1971 p o p u l a t i o n o f 1 2 6 , 4 4 9 w i t h a p p r o x i m a t e l y 3 8 , 6 0 0 h o u s e h o l d s . D u r i n g t h e d e c a d e p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h was a b o v e a v e r a g e w h i l e i n c o m e g r o w t h was b e l o w t h e m e d i a n . A p p r o x i m a t e l y 20 .7% o f h o u s e h o l d s h a d 1971 g r o s s i n c o m e s b e l o w t h e $ 5 , 0 0 0 m a r k . S u p p o r t e d Q u a n t i t y 85%QN 99%QN 100%QN 115%QN [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 1 ] [ 2 ] $ % $ % $ % $ % i n c o m e 3 4 . 9 39 6 4 . 7 35 6 2 . 2 37 1 3 6 . 6 22 c o n s t r a i n e d c a s h 3 3 . 6 41 6 0 . 1 38 5 8 . 9 39 1 0 7 . 8 28 d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d 2 . 6 522 5 . 5 434 4 . 0 577 5.1 578 d i r e c t q u a n t i t y 1 5 . 5 88 2 6 . 2 91 2 5 . 8 89 3 1 . 8 89 d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e 1 3 . 6 101 2 3 . 1 103 2 3 . 9 98 2 9 . 7 95 d i r e c t p r i c e 1 1 . 3 1 22 1 9 . 0 121 1 8 . 8 1 22 2 5 . 8 118 % h o u s e h o l d s s u b s i d i z e d 5 8 8 15 n o t e [ 1 ] t h e a v e r a g e m o n t h l y s u b s i d y p e r r e c i p i e n t [ 2 ] t h e e a r m a r k i n g c o e f f i c i e n t ; % o f s u b s i d y u s e d t o i n c r e a s e h o u s i n g c o n s u m p t i o n [ 3 ] s u p p o r t e d q u a n t i t y c o r r e s p o n d s t o % o f " m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n " T a b l e 2 9 : A v e r a g e M o n t h l y S u b s i d y a n d E a r m a r k i n g C o e f f i c i e n t s [ S a s k a t o o n ] F o r t h i s CMA t h e p e r f o r m a n c e s u n d e r t h e 99% a n d 100% s c e n a r i o s w e r e a l l b u t e q u a l a s a r e s u l t o f a r e a d y s u p p l y o f " u p g r a d a b l e " e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s . The s t a b i l i t y o f t h e m a r k e t a n d t h e s u p p l y o f s u c h d w e l l i n g s r e s u l t s i n l o w a v e r a g e c o s t s u n d e r a l l t h e " d i r e c t 1 40 p r o d u c t " o p t i o n s , w h i l e c o s t s u n d e r t h e " i n c o m e " o p t i o n compound a s t h e s u p p o r t e d l e v e l i s i n c r e a s e d . The r e s u l t i s t h a t t h e m a r g i n b e t w e e n t h e t w o o p t i o n s i n c r e a s e s f r o m a c o s t d i f f e r e n t i a l c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o a f a c t o r o f 2 . 2 5 f o r t h e 85% s c e n a r i o t o a f a c t o r i n e x c e s s o f 4 . 5 f o r t h e 115% s c e n a r i o . A s w i t h Q u e b e c C i t y , one f i n d s a s i g n i f i c a n t i n c r e a s e i n t h e s p r e a d i n t h e c o s t s a s t h e s u p p o r t e d l e v e l i s i n c r e a s e d . f . ) S u d b u r y . I n 1971 S u d b u r y h a d a mean h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e o f $ 1 1 , 9 9 0 ; i n e x c e s s o f $ 1 , 5 0 0 h i g h e r t h a n t h a t f o r a n y o f t h e o t h e r C M A s . I t i s a l s o t h e s m a l l e s t o f t h e CMAs s e l e c t e d w i t h a 1971 p o p u l a t i o n o f 1 5 5 , 4 2 4 a n d a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1 6 , 5 0 0 h o u s e h o l d s . S u p p o r t e d Q u a n t i t y 85%QN 99%QN 100%QN 115%QN [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [1 ] [ 2 ] [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 1 ] [ 2 ] $ % $ % $ % $ % i n c o m e 7 . 2 45 41 . 0 36 4 4 . 4 36 1 0 9 . 3 30 c o n s t r e i i n e d c a s h 7 . 2 45 41 . 0 36 4 4 . 4 36 1 0 0 . 5 33 d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d 0 . 8 996 1 . 9 781 2 . 9 772 4 . 4 672 d i r e c t q u a n t i t y 3 . 3 98 1 7 . 0 87 1 8 . 4 87 4 0 . 3 82 d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e 4 . 2 1 04 1 5 . 2 100 1 6 . 4 100 3 1 . 9 100 d i r e c t p r i c e 2 . 3 1 40 1 2 . 1 1 23 1 3 . 1 1 23 2 9 . 2 1 1 4 % h o u s e h o l d s s u b s i d i z e d 2 4 4 7 n o t e [ 1 ] t h e a v e r a g e m o n t h l y s u b s i d y p e r r e c i p i e n t [ 2 ] t h e e a r m a r k i n g c o e f f i c i e n t ; % o f s u b s i d y u s e d t o i n c r e a s e h o u s i n g c o n s u m p t i o n [ 3 ] s u p p o r t e d q u a n t i t y c o r r e s p o n d s t o % o f " m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n " T a b l e 3 0 : A v e r a g e M o n t h l y S u b s i d y a n d E a r m a r k i n g C o e f f i c i e n t s [ S u d b u r y ] 141 A s a r e s u l t o f t h e h i g h a v e r a g e i n c o m e s f o r t h e CMA ( a n d c o r r e s p o n d i n g l o w e r e x p e n d i t u r e on h o u s i n g s h a r e s ) t h e s u b s i d y a m o u n t s i n v o l v e d a r e v e r y l o w . E v e n a t t h e s e l o w l e v e l s t h e m a r g i n b e t w e e n t h e " i n c o m e " a n d " d i r e c t p r o d u c t " o p t i o n s i s m a i n t a i n e d , r a n g i n g f r o m a f a c t o r o f 2 . 0 t h r o u g h 2 . 5 . Of i n t e r e s t f r o m t h e S u d b u r y r e s u l t s i s t h e f a c t t h a t i t i s n o t u n t i l t h e 115% s c e n a r i o t h a t t h e c o n s t r a i n t on t h e c a s h s u b s i d y b e c o m e s b i n d i n g , i . e . c o s t s u n d e r t h e " c o n s t r a i n e d c a s h " o p t i o n a r e l e s s t h a n f o r t h e p u r e " i n c o m e " o p t i o n . g . ) V a n c o u v e r . T h i s i s t h e l a r g e s t o f t h e s e l e c t e d CMAs w i t h a 1971 p o p u l a t i o n s l i g h t l y i n e x c e s s o f one m i l l i o n a n d a p p r o x i m a t e l y 3 4 5 , 6 0 0 h o u s e h o l d s . D u r i n g t h e 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 7 1 d e c a d e i t e x p e r i e n c e d b o t h r e l a t i v e l y h i g h p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h a n d i n c o m e g r o w t h , b u t i n 1971 s t i l l h a d a r e l a t i v e l y h i g h p r o p o r t i o n o f i t s h o u s e h o l d s ( 1 8 . 4 % ) w i t h i n c o m e s l e s s t h a n $ 5 , 0 0 0 . 1 42 S u p p o r t e d Q u a n t i t y 85%QN 99%QN 100%QN 115%QN [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 1 ] [ 2 ] $ % $ % $ % $ % i n c o m e 1 1 7 . 2 27 2 7 6 . 4 14 1 9 7 . 7 19 261 . 2 1 3 c o n s t r a i n e d c a s h 8 3 . 2 38 8 7 . 5 45 81 . 2 39 1 1 6 . 7 29 d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d 8 . 4 379 1 5 . 3 255 9 . 1 332 8 . 5 424 d i r e c t q u a n t i t y 3 6 . 5 87 4 4 . 2 88 3 5 . 1 91 3 8 . 2 88 d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e 3 2 . 4 98 3 9 . 5 99 3 3 . 1 97 3 6 . 9 92 d i r e c t p r i c e 2 7 . 7 1 1 4 3 5 . 1 1 1 1 2 7 . 2 1 18 3 0 . 0 1 1 2 % h o u s e h o l d s s u b s i d i z e d 5 8 8 18 n o t e [ 1 ] t h e a v e r a g e m o n t h l y s u b s i d y p e r r e c i p i e n t [ 2 ] t h e e a r m a r k i n g c o e f f i c i e n t ; % o f s u b s i d y u s e d t o i n c r e a s e h o u s i n g c o n s u m p t i o n [ 3 ] s u p p o r t e d q u a n t i t y c o r r e s p o n d s t o % o f " m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n " T a b l e 3 1 : A v e r a g e M o n t h l y S u b s i d y a n d E a r m a r k i n g C o e f f i c i e n t s [ V a n c o u v e r ] V a n c o u v e r i s a n o t h e r e x a m p l e o f a CMA w i t h a p r i c e d i s c o u n t i n t h e l o w e r q u a l i t y s u b m a r k e t s . The c o n s e q u e n c e i s t h a t t h e c o s t s o f s u p p o r t i n g l e v e l s f r o m t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k o n l y a r e g r e a t l y i n e x c e s s o f t h o s e i n c u r r e d when new d w e l l i n g s a r e made a v a i l a b l e . The s c e n a r i o s f o r V a n c o u v e r f o l l o w a p a t t e r n c o m p a r a b l e t o t h a t f o r C a l g a r y w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n t h a t t h e a v e r a g e c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e 100% a n d 115% s c e n a r i o s a r e h i g h e r a s a r e s u l t o f h i g h e r " c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s " i n V a n c o u v e r . T h e i m p a c t o f t h e h i g h e r c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s i s t o i n c r e a s e t h e m a r g i n b e t w e e n t h e " i n c o m e " a n d " d i r e c t p r o d u c t " o p t i o n s f r o m a f a c t o r o f 3 . 5 f o r t h e 85% s c e n a r i o t o a f a c t o r o f 7 . 0 f o r t h e 115% s c e n a r i o . h . ) W i n n i p e g . T h i s CMA h a d a 1971 p o p u l a t i o n s l i g h t l y i n e x c e s s o f h a l f a m i l l i o n , w i t h b e l o w a v e r a g e g r o w t h i n b o t h p o p u l a t i o n a n d 143 a v e r a g e i n c o m e s d u r i n g t h e d e c a d e . I n 1971 17.4% o f t h e h o u s e h o l d s h a d i n c o m e s b e l o w $ 5 , 0 0 0 ; a n a b o v e a v e r a g e p r o p o r t i o n . S u p p o r t e d Q u a n t i t y 85%QN 99%QN 100%QN 115%QN [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 1 ] [ 2 ] [ 1 ] [ 2 ] $ % $ % $ % $ % i n c o m e 71 . 4 44 2 7 3 . 6 1 5 9 2 . 6 30 2 7 7 . 9 11 c o n s t r a i n e d c a s h 5 9 . 8 52 8 8 . 5 45 6 7 . 6 42 1 1 8 . 8 26 d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d 19.9 200 2 3 . 8 1 97 1 3 . 9 255 9 . 8 302 d i r e c t q u a n t i t y 4 3 . 7 91 4 6 . 8 91 3 1 . 6 89 3 6 . 5 85 d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e 3 9 . 7 100 4 6 . 7 100 2 9 . 8 96 3 5 . 7 91 d i r e c t p r i c e 2 6 . 8 1 17 3 4 . 8 1 1 5 2 4 . 7 1 14 2 8 . 4 109 % h o u s e h o l d s s u b s i d i z e d 5 8 1 1 23 n o t e [ 1 ] t h e a v e r a g e m o n t h l y s u b s i d y p e r r e c i p i e n t [ 2 ] t h e e a r m a r k i n g c o e f f i c i e n t ; % o f s u b s i d y u s e d t o i n c r e a s e h o u s i n g c o n s u m p t i o n [ 3 ] s u p p o r t e d q u a n t i t y c o r r e s p o n d s t o % o f " m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n " T a b l e 3 2 : A v e r a g e M o n t h l y S u b s i d y a n d E a r m a r k i n g C o e f f i c i e n t s [ W i n n i p e g ] A g a i n a p r i c e d i s c o u n t i n t h e l o w e r q u a l i t y s u b m a r k e t s r e s u l t s i n t h e c o s t s u n d e r a 99% s c e n a r i o b e i n g g r e a t l y i n e x c e s s o f t h o s e u n d e r t h e 100% s c e n a r i o . The l a r g e s h i f t i n a v e r a g e s u b s i d y c o s t s b e t w e e n t h e 85% a n d 99% s c e n a r i o s r e s u l t s f r o m t h e l i m i t e d s u p p l y o f " s u i t a b l e " e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s f o r u p g r a d i n g . W i t h t h e s e m a r k e t c o n s t r a i n t s t h e m a r g i n b e t w e e n t h e " i n c o m e " a n d t h e " d i r e c t p r o d u c t " o p t i o n s v a r i e s f r o m a f a c t o r o f l e s s t h a n 2 . 0 f o r t h e 85% s c e n a r i o , t o a f a c t o r o f 6 . 0 f o r t h e 99% s c e n a r i o , down t o a f a c t o r o f 3 . 0 f o r t h e 100% s c e n a r i o a n d f i n a l l y i n c r e a s i n g t o a f a c t o r c l o s e t o 8 . 0 f o r t h e 115% s c e n a r i o . T h e s e r e s u l t s h i g h l i g h t t h e s e n s i t i v i t y o f t h e e s t i m a t e d s u b s i d y c o s t s t o a l t e r n a t i v e l y t h e 144 n a t u r e o f t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t a n d t h e l e v e l o f s u p p o r t , b u t m o s t i m p o r t a n t l y t o t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l . A r e v i e w o f t h e p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l CMAs h i g h l i g h t s t h e v a r i a b i l i t y o f b o t h t h e i m p a c t o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l p o l i c y o p t i o n s a n d t h e r e l a t i v e i m p a c t a s t h e p o l i c y o p t i o n s a l l o w a g r e a t e r l e a k a g e o f t h e s u b s i d y t o t h e c o n s u m p t i o n o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s . I n f a c t t h e " e a r m a r k i n g c o e f f i c i e n t " u n d e r t h e . " i n c o m e " o p t i o n r a n g e s f r o m a l o w o f 11% (89% o f s u b s i d y l e a k e d ) t o a h i g h o f 45% (55% o f s u b s i d y l e a k e d ) w h i l e t h o s e f o r t h e " c o n s t r a i n e d c a s h " o p t i o n r a n g e f r o m 23% t o 53%. When t h e s e o p t i o n s a r e c o m p a r e d w i t h t h e " d i r e c t p r o d u c t " o p t i o n s , w i t h m i n i m a l l e a k a g e s , t h e r e a r e l a r g e v a r i a t i o n s i n t h e c o s t m a r g i n . The a c t u a l r a n g e on t h e d i f f e r e n c e i n t h e c o s t s v a r i e s f r o m a l o w o f a f a c t o r o f 1 .72 ( " d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e " c o s t s 58% o f " i n c o m e " ) t o a h i g h o f 7 . 6 9 ( " d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e " c o s t s 13% o f " i n c o m e " ) . The l o w r a t i o o c c u r r e d i n t h e " w e a l t h i e s t " CMA w h i l e t h e h i g h r a t i o s a r e t y p i c a l l y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e 115% ( h i g h e s t ) l e v e l o f s u p p o r t . The i m p o r t a n t c o n c l u s i o n t o be d r a w n f r o m t h e c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e p e r f o r m a n c e o f p o l i c y s i m u l a t i o n s f o r t h e i n d i v i d u a l CMAs i s w i t h r e g a r d t o t h e d i v e r s i t y o f r e s p o n s e s i n t h e d i f f e r e n t m a r k e t s t o c o m p a r a b l e l e v e l s o f s u p p o r t . A s t h e n a t u r e o f t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k a n d t h e h o u s e h o l d s ' p r o p e n s i t y t o c o n s u m e h o u s i n g v a r y f r o m CMA t o C M A , s o d o e s t h e n e t i m p a c t o f an i n t r o d u c e d p r o g r a m . The c o n s e q u e n c e i s t h a t h o u s i n g p o l i c y i m p l e m e n t a t i o n mus t r e f l e c t t h e i m p o r t a n t d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n C M A s . P r o g r a m s r e q u i r e i n d i v i d u a l c u s t o m i z a t i o n f o r e a c h CMA, s u g g e s t i n g t h e n e e d f o r l o c a l i z e d h o u s i n g p o l i c i e s a n d p r o g r a m s . 145 7 . 4 Summary R e s u l t s To p r o v i d e a means by w h i c h a t y p i c a l p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c y o p t i o n s a c r o s s a l l CMAs c a n be c o m p a r e d , summary s t a t i s t i c s r e f l e c t i n g t h e w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l C M A ' s s i m u l a t e d c o s t s a n d p e r f o r m a n c e s t a t i s t i c s h a v e b e e n c a l c u l a t e d . The w e i g h t i n g h a s b e e n b a s e d on t h e number o f h o u s e h o l d s i n t h e C M A . The d a t a p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e 33 p r o v i d e a c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e a v e r a g e c o s t a n d t h e a s s o c i a t e d e a r m a r k i n g o f t h e a l t e r n a t i v e f o r m s o f i n t e r v e n t i o n a s a p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e " i n c o m e " o p t i o n . C o n s i d e r e d a r e t h e 85% o f t h e new q u a n t i t y c o n s t r a i n t s c e n a r i o s ( r e p r e s e n t i n g s c e n e r l o s w h e r e s u b s i d i z e d h o u s e h o l d s c a n n o t c o n s u m e new s t o c k ) a n d s c e n a r i o s a t a s u b s i d y l e v e l e q u a l t o t h e new q u a n t i t y c o n s t r a i n t ( r e p r e s e n t i n g s c e n a r i o s w h e r e s u b s i d i z e d h o u s e h o l d s h a v e a c c e s s t o t h e new s t o c k ) . The 99% s c e n a r i o s h a v e n o t b e e n c o n s i d e r e d b e c a u s e ' o f t h e s e v e r e d i s t o r t i o n i n t r o d u c e d i n some CMAs by a l i m i t e d s u p p l y o f s u i t a b l e e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s . T h e 115% s c e n a r i o h a s a l s o n o t b e e n c o n s i d e r e d a s i t i n v o l v e s p a r t i c i p a t i o n l e v e l s i n e x c e s s o f r e a s o n a b l e e x p e c t a t i o n s . I t s h o u l d be n o t e d t h a t s i n c e t h e s e l e c t e d CMA s a m p l e was n o t d e r i v e d on a s t a t i s t i c a l b a s i s t h e s e r e s u l t s s h o u l d n o t be i n t e p r e t e d a s a t r u e i n d i c a t o r o f t h e e x p e c t e d o v e r a l l p e r f o r m a n c e f o r C a n a d a a s a. w h o l e . 1 46 S u p p o r t e d Q u a n t i t y 85%QN 1 00%QN P o l i c y T y p e A v e r a g e S u b s i d y E a r m a r k i n g C o e f f i c i e n t A v e r a g e S u b s i d y E a r m a r k i n g C o e f f i c i e n t % % % % i n c o m e c o n s t r a i n e d c a s h d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d d i r e c t q u a n t i t y d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e d i r e c t p r i c e 1 0 0 . 0 0 7 6 . 5 0 1 3 . 6 0 3 9 . 4 0 3 5 . 9 0 2 9 . 4 0 1 0 0 . 0 0 121 . 7 0 1 1 0 2 . 8 0 2 4 0 . 9 0 2 7 0 . 1 0 3 2 5 . 4 0 1 0 0 . 0 0 71 . 4 0 9 . 6 0 3 3 . 7 0 31 . 2 0 2 5 . 8 0 1 0 0 . 0 0 1 2 4 . 7 0 1 3 3 2 . 5 0 2 6 2 . 8 0 2 8 6 . 1 0 3 5 0 . 0 0 T a b l e 3 3 : P e r c e n t a g e o f " I n c o m e " P o l i c y O p t i o n V a l u e s [ W e i g h t e d A v e r a g e f o r t h e E i g h t C M A s ] The a v e r a g e s u b s i d y v a l u e s i n T a b l e 33 p r o v i d e a d i r e c t c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e t h e d i f f e r e n c e i n c o s t b e t w e e n t h e p o l i c y o p t i o n s . T h a t i s , t h e a v e r a g e s u b s i d y c o s t f o r t h e " c o n s t r a i n e d c a s h " o p t i o n u n d e r t h e 85% s c e n a r i o i s o n l y 7 6 . 5 % o f t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g c o s t t h a t w o u l d be i n c u r r e d u n d e r t h e " i n c o m e " o p t i o n . , C o r r e s p o n d i n g l y t h e a v e r a g e s u b s i d y c o s t f o r t h e " d i r e c t p r i c e " s u b s i d y i s o n l y 29 .4% o f t h a t f o r t h e " i n c o m e " o p t i o n . The p r e s e n t e d v a l u e s f o r t h e " e a r m a r k i n g c o e f f i c i e n t s " r e f l e c t t h e p e r c e n t a g e i n c r e a s e i n t h e amoun t o f t h e s u b s i d y u s e d on h o u s i n g o v e r t h a t a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e t y p i c a l " i n c o m e " p o l i c y o p t i o n . T h a t i s f o r t h e 115% s c e n a r i o , u n d e r t h e " c o n s t r a i n e d c a s h " o p t i o n t h e e a r m a r k i n g c o e f f i c i e n t i s 2 4 . 7 % h i g h e r , w h i l e t h a t f o r t h e " d i r e c t p r i c e " o p t i o n i s 250% h i g h e r . D r a w i n g f r o m t h e s i m u l a t e d c o s t s , t h e i n d i c a t e d a v e r a g e p e r c e n t a g e l e a k a g e s f o r t h e s i x p o l i c y o p t i o n s a r e a s i n T a b l e 3 4 . 147 P e r c e n t a g e S u b s i d y L e a k a g e t o O t h e r G o o d s a n d S e r v i c e s S u p p o r t e d Q u a n t i t y 85%QN 100%QN % i n c o m e c o n s t r a i n e d c a s h d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d d i r e c t q u a n t i t y d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e d i r e c t p r i c e 6 2 . 6 5 4 . 5 • 3 1 2 . 6 9 . 9 - 1 . 0 - 2 1 . 7 6 6 . 2 5 7 . 8 - 3 5 0 . 5 11 .1 3 . 3 - 1 8 . 3 T a b l e 34 : P e r c e n t L o s s o f S u b s i d y t o O t h e r G o o d s a n d S e r v i c e s [ A v e r a g e f o r a l l C M A s ] A n e g a t i v e p e r c e n t l o s s i n d i c a t e s s i t u a t i o n s w h e r e h o u s e h o l d s r e d u c e t h e c o n s u m p t i o n o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s t o meet p a r t o f t h e i n c r e a s e d p a y m e n t f o r t h e i r h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s . T h a t i s , t h e c o n s t r a i n t on t h e m i n i m u m h o u s i n g s t a n d a r d s i s f o r c i n g a n i n c r e a s e i n t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s own e x p e n d i t u r e on h o u s i n g t o a b o v e t h e i r p r e -s u b s i d y e x p e n d i t u r e on h o u s i n g . T h e s e s t a t i s t i c s i n d i c a t e t h e l a r g e l e a k a g e a n d t h e a s s o c i a t e d " i n e f f i c i e n c y " o f i n c o m e o r i e n t e d p o l i c i e s i n m a t c h i n g s o l e l y a m i n i m u m h o u s i n g s t a n d a r d . T h a t i s , w h i l e t h e two a l t e r n a t i v e " i n c o m e " o r i e n t e d p o l i c i e s r e s u l t i n a s u b s i d y l e a k a g e i n t h e r a n g e o f 55% t o 65%, t h e l e a k a g e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e " d i r e c t p r o d u c t " o p t i o n s i s m i n i m a l . 1 48 7 . 5 A C o m p a r i s i o n o f t h e P o l i c y O p t i o n s I n s i m u l a t i n g t h e i m p a c t o f t h e a l t e r n a t i v e f o r m s o f g o v e r n m e n t i n t e r v e n t i o n , t h e t e c h n i q u e o f u t i l i z i n g a m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y c o n s t r a i n t a l l o w s one t o e f f e c t i v e l y n o r m a l i z e t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s c e n a r i o s i n t e r m s o f c h a n g e s t o t h e h o u s i n g s t o c k a s r e f l e c t e d by t y p e , q u a n t i t y a n d p r i c e . F o r a g i v e n CMA a g i v e n s u b s i d y l e v e l i n e f f e c t r e p r e s e n t s a c o n s t a n t d e c a d e - e n d s t a t e f o r t h e m a r k e t w i t h t h e p r e s e n t e d s u b s i d y a m o u n t s i n d i c a t i n g t h e a v e r a g e c o s t p e r h o u s e h o l d t o t h e g o v e r n m e n t o f a c h i e v i n g t h i s g i v e n s t a t e v i a t h e a l t e r n a t i v e f o r m s o f i n t e r v e n t i o n . The mos t g e n e r o u s f o r m o f g o v e r n m e n t s u p p o r t o f t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t l i e s w i t h an " i n c o m e " p o l i c y w h e r e i n h o u s h o l d s a r e p r o v i d e d w i t h s u f f i c i e n t i n c o m e t o c o n s u m e t h e m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f h o u s i n g by c h o i c e . The o t h e r e n d o f t h e s c a l e i s i n d i c a t e d by t h e " d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d " p o l i c y o p t i o n . T h i s c o n s t r a i n e d p o l i c y o p t i o n i s f o r m u l a t e d u n d e r t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e g o v e r n m e n t w o u l d c o m p e n s a t e h o u s e h o l d s f o r c e d t o i n c r e a s e t h e i r l e v e l o f h o u s i n g c o n s u m p t i o n t o c o n f o r m t o t h e i m p o s e d m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y . The c o m p e n s a t i o n l e v e l ( s u b s i d y ) w o u l d be s u c h t h a t t h e h o u s e h o l d w o u l d s t i l l a c h i e v e t h e same l e v e l o f o v e r a l l s a t i s f a c t i o n b u t t y p i c a l l y i n v o l v e s r e d u c i n g t h e i r c o n s u m p t i o n o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s t o meet p a r t o f t h e i n c r e a s e d e x p e n d i t u r e on h o u s i n g . The s i m u l a t e d d i f f e r e n c e i n c o s t b e t w e e n t h e s e t w o a l t e r n a t i v e s , a s i n d i c a t e d i n T a b l e 3 3 , c o r r e s p o n d s t o 85% t o 90% o f t h e c o s t u n d e r t h e " i n c o m e " o p t i o n . T h a t i s , i t c o u l d c o s t t h e g o v e r n m e n t a t l e a s t t e n t i m e s more p e r annum t o s u p p o r t h o u s i n g s t a n d a r d s v i a a n " i n c o m e " p o l i c y t h a n w o u l d be n e c e s s a r y u n d e r t h e " d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d " o p t i o n . 149 The c o m p u t e d m a r g i n b e t w e e n t h e " i n c o m e " mode a n d t h e " c o n s t r a i n e d c a s h " ( h o u s i n g a l l o w a n c e ) o p t i o n v a r i e s s i g n i f i c a n t l y on a n i n d i v i d u a l CMA b a s i s a n d i s p a r t i c u l a r l y s e n s i t i v e t o t h e s u p p o r t e d m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y l e v e l . G e n e r a l l y t h e more p r e s s u r e p l a c e d on t h e u p g r a d i n g o f t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k t h e g r e a t e r b e c o m e s t h e m a r g i n i n d u c e d by t h e e x p e n d i t u r e c o n s t r a i n t . The a v e r a g e c o s t u n d e r t h e " c o n s t r a i n e d c a s h " s u b s i d y i s i n t h e o r d e r o f 75% o f t h a t u n d e r t h e p u r e " i n c o m e " o p t i o n b u t t h e r a n g e on a n i n d i v i d u a l CMA b a s i s r e a c h e s t o a l o w o f 25%. G e n e r a l l y t h e p e r f o m a n c e s o f t h e " d i r e c t q u a n t i t y " a n d " d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e " p o l i c y o p t i o n s a r e c o m p a r a b l e w i t h t h e r e q u i r e d s u b s i d y c o s t s b e i n g a p p r o x i m a t e l y o n e - t h i r d o f t h o s e f o r a n " i n c o m e " p o l i c y . T h e s e p o l i c i e s i n v o l v e p r o g r a m s t h a t mos t c l o s e l y a p p r o x i m a t e a z e r o s u b s i d y " l e a k a g e " s i t u a t i o n w i t h h o u s e h o l d s c o m p e n s a t e d o n l y f o r t h e r e q u i r e d i n c r e a s e i n h o u s i n g c o n s u m p t i o n . The " d i r e c t p r i c e " s u b s i d y , a s f o r m u l a t e d i n t h e m o d e l , t e n d s t o e n c o u r a g e h o u s e h o l d s t o f o r e g o t h e c o n s u m p t i o n o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s a n d c o n s e q u e n t l y t h e r e q u i r e d s u b s i d y t e n d s t o be l e s s t h a n u n d e r e i t h e r a " d i r e c t q u a n t i t y " o r " d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e " o p t i o n . , I n s i m u l a t i o n s b a s e d on a C a n a d i a n V e r s i o n o f t h e o r i g i n a l U l m o d e l ( d e t a i l s o f t h i s m o d e l a r e shown i n A P P E N D I X S e c t i o n 1) t h e r e v e r s e s i t u a t i o n t e n d s t o r e s u l t ; t h e c o s t o f t h e p r i c e s u b s i d y was g r e a t e r t h a n t h a t f o r t h e o t h e r t w o . T h i s s w i t c h i n g h i g h l i g h t s t h e s e n s i t i v i t y o f t h e e s t i m a t e d c o s t s t o b o t h t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e m o d e l ' s s u p p l y a n d demand f u n c t i o n s a n d t h e a c t u a l i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e s u b s i d y f o r m u l a t i o n i n t h e m o d e l . The m a j o r u n c e r t a i n t y w i t h r e g a r d t o t h e s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f t h e m o d e l l i e s i n t h e s u p p l y o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s f r o m t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k f u n c t i o n s . A s i m p l e m e n t e d , t h e s u p p l y f u n c t i o n f o r m u l a t i o n s 150 p r o v i d e r e l a t i v e l y e l a s t i c r e s p o n s e s t o p r i c e i n c r e a s e s . The U r b a n I n s t i t u t e , i n t h e i r p o l i c y s i m u l a t i o n s , w e r e t r o u b l e d by t h e i r i n a b i l i t y t o d e f i n e a s u i t a b l e e l a s t i c i t y p a r a m e t e r f o r t h e i r s u p p l y f u n c t i o n s (de Leeuw a n d S t r u y k ( 1 9 7 5 , p 1 2 6 ) ) a n d e l e c t e d t o p e r f o r m t h e i r s i m u l a t i o n s w i t h t w o s e t s o f s u p p l y f u n c t i o n p a r a m e t e r s , r e f l e c t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e l y e l a s t i c a n d i n e l a s t i c r e s p o n s e s . The e l a s t i c i t y o f t h e s u p p l y f u n c t i o n i s o f g r e a t e s t i m p o r t a n c e when c o n s i d e r i n g s c e n a r i o s w h e r e t h e s u p p o r t e d m i n i m u m i s l e s s t h a n t h e m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n ; a l l s u b s i d i z e d h o u s e h o l d s w i l l o c c u p y " u p g r a d e d " e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s a n d c o n s e q u e n t l y t h e s u b s i d y c o s t w i l l be s t r o n g l y d e p e n d e n t on t h e c o s t o f u p g r a d i n g . To t e s t f o r t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e e l a s t i c i t y o f t h e s u p p l y f u n c t i o n s on t h e r e l a t i v e p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e p o l i c i e s , s i m u l a t i o n s w e r e p e r f o r m e d w i t h t h e C a n a d i a n V e r s i o n o f t h e U l ' s m o d e l . The r e s u l t s o b t a i n e d i n d i c a t e t h a t a s t h e i n e l a s t i c i t y o f t h e s u p p l y f u n c t i o n s i s i n c r e a s e d t h e n e t e f f e c t i s one o f i n c r e a s i n g t h e s p r e a d b e t w e e n t h e c o s t s o f t h e demand a n d s u p p l y o r i e n t e d p o l i c i e s w i t h t h e m a r g i n s b e i n g p o t e n t i a l l y t w i c e t h o s e o b t a i n e d u n d e r t h e m o d i f i e d m o d e l . I t s h o u l d a g a i n be e m p h a s i z e d t h a t t h e c o m p u t e d c o s t s o f s u b s i d i z a t i o n do n o t i n c l u d e a n y a l l o w a n c e f o r a d m i n i s t r a t i o n c o s t s , n o r do t h e y i n c l u d e a n y c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f a n y c o s t s r e s u l t i n g f r o m " p i o o r " m a r k e t i n f o r m a t i o n a n d / o r p r o g r a m d e s i g n . I n s u m m a r y , i t c a n be s u g g e s t e d t h a t a g e n e r a l " d i r e c t p r o d u c t " o r i e n t e d p o l i c y , w i t h t h e s u b s i d y t i e d d i r e c t l y t o t h e c h a n g e i n t h e q u a n t i t y o f h o u s i n g c o n s u m e d ( s u p p l i e d ) , w i l l r e s u l t i n t y p i c a l c o s t s o f a t m o s t o n l y o n e - t h i r d o f t h o s e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a g e n e r a l i n c o m e p o l i c y . I n t h e e x t r e m e t h e i n d i c a t e d c o s t s o f a " d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d " p o l i c y s u g g e s t t h a t w i t h i m a g i n a t i v e p r o g r a m 151 d e s i g n t h e a c t u a l d i r e c t s u b s i d y c o s t f o r h o u s i n g , n e t o f a d m i n i s t r a t i o n c o s t s , c o u l d be r e d u c e d t o a s l i t t l e a s one t e n t h o f t h o s e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a p u r e i n c o m e o r i e n t e d p o l i c y . The k e y t o t h e c o s t e f f i c i e n c y o f t h e d i r e c t p r o d u c t f o r m s o f i n t e r v e n t i o n i s t h a t t h e s u b s i d y i s t a r g e t e d t o t h e i n c r e a s e i n h o u s i n g c o n s u m p t i o n , m i n i m i z i n g t h e l e a k a g e o f t h e s u b s i d y p r o v i d e d t o t h e c o n s u m p t i o n o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s . I n i m p l e m e n t i n g p r o g r a m s t o meet t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s o f s u c h p o l i c i e s t h e d i f f i c u l t y l i e s i n e n s u r i n g t h a t t h e s u b s i d y i s p r o v i d e d t o t h e d w e l l i n g s w i t h t h e l o w e s t m a r g i n a l c o s t o f u p g r a d i n g . An i n t e r - C M A c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e r e l a t i v e p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e 99% s c e n a r i o ( w h e r e t h e u p g r a d i n g w i l l be i n t h e f o r m o f t h e r e n o v a t i o n o f t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k ) a n d t h e 100% s c e n a r i o ( w h e r e u p g r a d i n g c a n be i n b o t h t h e e x i s t i n g a n d new s t o c k ) h i g h l i g h t s t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e s t a t e o f t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k i n d e t e r m i n i n g s u i t a b l e p r o g r a m s f o r t h e i n d i v i d u a l C M A s . I n f i v e o f t h e e i g h t CMAs c o n s i d e r e d t h e t o t a l s u b s i d y r e q u i r e d t o p r o v i d e t h e n e c e s s a r y u p g r a d i n g f r o m e x i s t i n g s t o c k o n l y (99% s c e n a r i o ) was i n e x c e s s o f t h e t o t a l c o s t when new c o n s t r u c t i o n was a l s o u s e d (100% s c e n a r i o ) t o meet u p g r a d i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s . F o r two o f t h e CMAs t h e c o s t s u n d e r t h e 99% s c e n a r i o w e r e i n e x c e s s o f t h r e e t i m e s t h o s e f o r t h e 100% s c e n a r i o . The n a t u r e o f a s u i t a b l e p r o g r a m s t r u c t u r e w i l l c o n s i s t e n t l y v a r y f r o m CMA t o C M A , p a r t i c u l a r l y i n t e r m s o f t h e s t a t e o f t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k . Some CMAs w i t h a s o u n d u p g r a d a b l e e x i s t i n g s t o c k w i l l be b e s t s e r v e d by p r o g r a m s a l o n g t h e l i n e s o f t h e p r e s e n t R e s i d e n t i a l R e h a b i l i t a t i o n P r o g r a m , w h i l e o t h e r s w i l l be b e t t e r s e r v e d by p r o g r a m s t h a t a i d i n new c o n s t r u c t i o n i n a d d i t i o n t o r e n o v a t i o n a c t i v i t y . The i m p o r t a n t f a c t i s t h a t e a c h CMA w i l l be b e s t s e r v e d by a d i f f e r e n t s e r i e s o f i n t e r r e l a t e d p r o g r a m s w h i c h t a r g e t v a r y i n g s u b s i d y a m o u n t s t o 1 52 a l t e r n a t i v e l y r e n o v a t i o n a n d new c o n s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t y . The a d h o c f o r m u l a t i o n o f t h e s u p p l y o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s f r o m t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k f u n c t i o n s i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t h e m o d e l l i m i t s a n y r e f i n e m e n t o f t h e s i m u l a t i o n s t o c o n s i d e r p r o g r a m s t r u c t u r e . I d e a l l y one c o u l d c o n s i d e r a l t e r n a t i v e c o m b i n a t i o n s o f p r o g r a m s f o c u s i n g on r e n o v a t i o n a n d new c o n s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t y , b u t t h e m o d e l ' s s t r u c t u r e ( w i t h o n l y 100 m o d e l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s ) p r o h i b i t s s u c h d e t a i l e d a n a l y s i s a s t h e q u a n t u m p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e s d i s t o r t a n y a t t e m p t t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e b e t w e e n p r o g r a m s . F u r t h e r , t h e u n c e r t a i n t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e t r u e p r i c e r e s p o n s i v e n e s s o f t h e u p g r a d i n g o f t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k w o u l d l e a v e s u c h e s t i m a t e s m e a n i n g l e s s . To r e f i n e t h e e s t i m a t e s o f t h e c o s t s t h a t w o u l d be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a l t e r n a t i v e p r o g r a m s , s t r o n g e v i d e n c e on t h e t r u e l o n g r u n r e s p o n s i v e n e s s o f t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k i s r e q u i r e d . D e t a i l e d i n f o r m a t i o n on r e p a i r s a n d r e n o v a t i o n a c t i v i t y i s n e c e s s a r y t o o b t a i n s u c h d a t a . N o t o n l y a r e t h e r e m a j o r d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a l t e r n a t i v e l y i n c o m e o r i e n t e d a n d d i r e c t p r o d u c t o r i e n t e d f o r m s o f i n t e r v e n t i o n , b u t t h e r e a r e a l s o m a j o r d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e manne r i n w h i c h t h e y c a n be i m p l e m e n t e d a n d t h e n e c e s s i t y f o r t h e c o n t i n u i t y o f t h e c o m m i t m e n t . B o t h t h e p u r e i n c o m e a n d t h e c o n s t r a i n e d c a s h ( h o u s i n g a l l o w a n c e ) f o r m s o f p o l i c y r e q u i r e a c o n t i n u i t y o f p a y m e n t s , r e g a r d l e s s o f t h e s t a t e o f t h e g e n e r a l e conomy i n o r d e r t h a t t h e r e c i p i e n t s c a n meet t h e i r d a y - t o - d a y e x p e n d i t u r e s . D i r e c t p r o d u c t f o r m s o f i n t e r v e n t i o n do n o t n e c e s s a r i l y r e q u i r e s u c h a c o n t i n u i t y o f p a y m e n t s . The s u b s i d y c a n be i n t h e f o r m o f a f r o n t - e n d l u m p sum p a y m e n t a l l o w i n g t h e m a t c h i n g o f t h e s u p p o r t o f h o u s i n g s t a n d a r d s t o t h e g e n e r a l w e l f a r e o f t h e c o u n t r y . 1 53 The p o l i c y s i m u l a t i o n s h a v e b e e n b a s e d on s i x t h e o r e t i c a l p o l i c y o p t i o n s t o c o v e r a c o n t i n u u m f r o m p u r e c a s h ( i n c o m e ) s u b s i d i e s t o d i r e c t p r o d u c t i n t e r v e n t i o n . The two s e l e c t e d " c a s h " s u b s i d y b e n c h m a r k o p t i o n s r e f l e c t p r o g r a m s t r u c t u r e s w h e r e i n t h e r e c i p i e n t i s p r o v i d e d w i t h a c a s h g r a n t p o t e n t i a l l y on a m o n t h l y b a s i s o r t h r o u g h a n e g a t i v e t a x a t i o n p r o g r a m . The d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e two p o l i c y o p t i o n s l i e s o n l y i n t e r m s o f t h e maximum a m o u n t o f t h e s u b s i d y f o r w h i c h t h e r e c i p i e n t i s e l i g i b l e : t h e d e l i v e r y m e c h a n i s m may be i d e n t i c a l . The p o l i c y o p t i o n s c o n s i d e r e d a s " d i r e c t p r o d u c t " a p p r o a c h e s a r e more a r b i t r a r y i n n a t u r e , r e f l e c t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e b e n c h m a r k s a n d may n o t , i n f a c t , be c a p a b l e o f r e p r e s e n t a t i o n by a d m i n i s t r a t i v e l y f e a s i b l e p r o g r a m s . P r o g r a m s t h a t h a v e t h e n e t e f f e c t o f r e d u c i n g t h e u n i t p r i c e p a i d by t h e r e c i p i e n t s a r e r e f l e c t e d by t h e " d i r e c t p r i c e " p o l i c y s c e n a r i o s . C o u n t e r p a r t p r o g r a m s w o u l d i n c l u d e t h o s e t h a t r e d u c e m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e s f o r o w n e r - o c c u p i e r s a n d r e d u c e m o n t h l y r e n t s f o r t e n a n t s . The t h r e e r e m a i n i n g " d i r e c t p r o d u c t " o p t i o n s s i m p l y r e f l e c t v a r y i n g l e v e l s o f s u p p o r t u n d e r p o t e n t i a l l y i d e n t i c a l p r o g r a m s t r u c t u r e s . H e r e t h e m a j o r d i f f e r e n c e l i e s i n t h e means by w h i c h t h e n e t amount o f t h e d i r e c t s u b s i d y i s c a l c u l a t e d . The mos t common f o r m o f p r o g r a m w o u l d i n v o l v e e i t h e r a f r o n t - e n d s u b s i d y o r m o n t h l y s u b s i d y p a y m e n t s so t h a t t h e r e c i p i e n t p a y s t h e m a r k e t p r i c e f o r o n l y a p a r t o f h i s h o u s i n g c o n s u m p t i o n . One w o u l d n o t e x p e c t t o i m p l e m e n t p r o g r a m s t h a t p r e c i s e l y d e t a i l t h e q u a n t i t y o r e x p e n d i t u r e m a r g i n s f o r i n d i v i d u a l h o u s h o l d s b u t w o u l d d e s i g n p r o g r a m s whose a v e r a g e e f f e c t w o u l d be a s r e p r e s e n t e d by t h e 1 54 c o n c e p u a l p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s . F u r t h e r m o r e , c e r t a i n p r o g r a m s t r u c t u r e s ( i n p a r t i c u l a r t h o s e t h a t a r e s e l f - f u n d i n g o r r e q u i r e a d e l a y e d r e p a y m e n t o f t h e s u b s i d y ) may r e f l e c t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f e a c h o i : t h e a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c y o p t i o n s a s t h e p r o g r a m moves t h r o u g h i t s l i f e c y c l e . F o r i n s t a n c e t h e p r o g r a m may on i m p l e m e n t a t i o n r e f l e c t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f a " d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e " p o l i c y w i t h t h e r e c i p i e n t s m a i n t a i n i n g t h e i r p r e s u b s i d y c o n s u m p t i o n l e v e l f o r o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s . I f i n c o m e s do n o t r i s e o v e r t i m e t o mee t r e p a y m e n t c l a u s e s t h e n e t e f f e c t may be one o f a l o n g r u n r e d u c t i o n i n t h e c o n s u m p t i o n o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s , a p p r o x i m a t i n g a " d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d " p o l i c y o p t i o n . The o n l y a v a i l a b l e d i r e c t m a r k e t e v i d e n c e on t h e r e l a t i v e c o s t o f a l t e r n a t i v e f o r m s o f h o u s i n g m a r k e t s u b s i d i s a t i o n i s t h a t o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e US E x p e r i m e n t a l H o u s i n g A l l o w a n c e P r o g r a m s (HUD ( 1 9 7 6 ) ) . T h e s e e x p e r i m e n t s w e r e s t r u c t u r e d t o a l l o w t h e e v a l u a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e f o r m s o f t r a n s f e r p a y m e n t s . The e v i d e n c e d e r i v e d r e l a t e s i n t h e m a i n t o t h e p o t e n t i a l i m p a c t d u r i n g t h e p h a s i n g i n o f s u p p o r t a n d l a c k s a n y s t r o n g e v i d e n c e on t h e d i f f e r e n t i a l i m p a c t o f c o m p r e h e n s i v e s e t s o f p r o g r a m s t h a t w o u l d be s t r u c t u r e d u n d e r t h e g e n e r a l p o l i c y o p t i o n s c o n s i d e r e d i n t h i s t h e s i s . 155 7 . 6 The D o l l a r E f f e c t What a r e t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f t h e c o m p u t e d c o s t m a r g i n s on a n a t i o n a l b a s i s ? T h e r e a r e c u r r e n t l y i n e x c e s s o f 8 , 2 8 0 , 0 0 0 i n d e p e n d e n t h o u s e h o l d s i n C a n a d a ( b a s e d on 1981 C e n s u s S t a t i s t i c s ) a n d w i t h a 5% p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e a s u b s i d y p r o g r a m w o u l d i n v o l v e a p p r o x i m a t e l y 4 0 0 , 0 0 0 h o u s e h o l d s . A t a m i n i m u m c u r r e n t c o s t o f $ 3 0 . 0 0 p e r m o n t h , on a v e r a g e , t o s u p p o r t e v e n t h e s m a l l e s t i m p r o v e m e n t i n t h e l e v e l o f h o u s i n g c o n s u m p t i o n v i a a " d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d " p o l i c y f o r m a t , t h e a n n u a l c u r r e n t c o s t w o u l d be i n t h e r e g i o n o f $155 m i l l i o n . The c o m p a r a b l e c o s t f o r a g e n e r a l f o r m o f " d i r e c t p r o d u c t " s u b s i d y w o u l d be c l o s e t o $460 m i l l i o n . The t o t a l s u b s i d y b i l l u n d e r an " i n c o m e " o r i e n t e d p o l i c y a p p r o a c h w i l l be i n e x c e s s o f $ 1 , 1 5 0 m i l l i o n . To s u p p o r t a more d e s i r a b l e l e v e l o f h o u s i n g , c o m p a r a b l e t o t h e m i n i m u m s t a n d a r d f o r new c o n s t r u c t i o n , t h e r e q u i r e d a v e r a g e m o n t h l y s u b s i d y c o s t p e r h o u s e h o l d u n d e r a " d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d " p o l i c y a p p r o a c h w i l l be i n t h e o r d e r o f $ 1 5 0 . 0 0 , w i t h a p p r o x i m a t e l y 8% o f t h e h o u s e h o l d s s u p p o r t e d . On t h i s b a s i s some 6 6 0 , 0 0 0 h o u s e h o l d s w i l l r e q u i r e s u b s i d i e s a t a n a n n u a l c o s t o f $ 1 , 2 0 0 m i l l i o n . The m a t c h i n g " d i r e c t p r o d u c t " c o s t s w o u l d be i n t h e r e g i o n o f $ 3 , 6 0 0 m i l l i o n w h i l e a n " i n c o m e " o r i e n t e d p o l i c y w o u l d r e q u i r e a t o t a l s u b s i d y b i l l i n t h e o r d e r o f $ 1 0 , 0 0 0 m i l l i o n . T h e s e a m o u n t s c o n t r a s t s h a r p l y w i t h 1980 b u d g e t a r y e x p e n d i t u r e a l l o c a t i o n s t o h o u s i n g o f $997 m i l l i o n a n d t h e t o t a l 1980 b o r r o w i n g f r o m g o v e r n m e n t u n d e r t h e N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t o f $ 1 , 5 6 9 m i l l i o n ( 1 9 8 0 C a n a d i a n H o u s i n g S t a t i s t i c s , T a b l e 2 7 ) . 156 C u r r e n t f o r m s o f s u p p o r t c a n be m o s t c l o s e l y a l i g n e d w i t h a " d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d " f o r m o f i n t e r v e n t i o n b e c a u s e o f t h e i r p o t e n t i a l o v e r a l l i m p a c t on r e c i p i e n t s . The s t o p - s t a r t n a t u r e o f p r o g r a m s o r i e n t e d t o w a r d s t h e o w n e r - o c c u p i e r 1 m a r k e t t y p i c a l l y r e s u l t s i n a s u b s i d i z e d h o u s e h o l d ' s l e v e l o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s c o n s u m p t i o n t a k i n g q u a n t u m l e a p s f o r w a r d , w i t h a c o r r e s p o n d i n g i n c r e a s e i n w e l f a r e . B u t a s t h e s u p p o r t i s w i t h d r a w n , t h e h o u s e h o l d i s l e f t a l l o c a t i n g an i n c r e a s i n g p r o p o r t i o n o f i t s b u d g e t t o h o u s i n g . I n t h e l o n g r u n h o u s e h o l d s a r e l e f t c o n s u m i n g a h i g h e r q u a n t i t y o f h o u s i n g , a l o w e r q u a n t i t y o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s a n d a r e , i n e f f e c t , b a c k t o a p r e - s u b s i d y l e v e l o f o v e r a l l w e l f a r e . The n e t l o n g r u n e f f e c t i s t h a t t h e h o u s e h o l d i s l e f t c o n s u m i n g more h o u s i n g b u t f e w e r o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s w i t h o n l y a m a r g i n a l c h a n g e i n o v e r a l l s a t i s f a c t i o n . The s h o r t c o m i n g o f t h e s e p r o g r a m s i s n o t i n t h e i r f o r m a t b u t i s t h a t t h e y h a v e b e e n i m p l e m e n t e d on a n a t i o n a l b a s i s . A s s u g g e s t e d by t h e d i v e r s e p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l C M A s , d e c e n t r a l i z e d p r o g r a m d e s i g n a n d i m p l e m e n t a t i o n c a n b u t h e l p t o ' i m p r o v e t h e o v e r a l l e f f i c i e n c y a n d e f f e c t i v e n e s s o f s u b s i d y p r o g r a m s . C o n s e q u e n t l y , i n i m p l e m e n t i n g p r o g r a m s t o s u p p o r t h o u s i n g s t a n d a r d s p e r s e , t h e i m p o r t a n t f a c t o r s a r e : 1. t h e p r o g r a m s s h o u l d be d e s i g n e d a n d i m p l e m e n t e d on a r e g i o n a l b a s i s w i t h t h e i r s t r u c t u r e a n d m a g n i t u d e o f s u p p o r t , r e f l e c t i n g l o c a l m a r k e t c o n d i t i o n s , a n d 2 . c o n s i d e r a t i o n mus t be made o f s h i f t i n g s u p p o r t b e t w e e n t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k a n d new c o n s t r u c t i o n , a s m a r k e t c o n d i t i o n s v a r y o v e r t i m e , t o m a t c h m i n i m u m m a r g i n a l c o s t s o f s t o c k u p g r a d i n g . 157 CHAPTER 0 8 : REVIEW a n d CONCLUSIONS The a i m o f t h i s t h e s i s h a s b e e n t o q u a n t i f y t h e c o s t s a n d e f f i c i e n c i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a l t e r n a t i v e f o r m s o f l o n g t e r m g o v e r n m e n t i n t e r v e n t i o n i n t o C a n a d i a n h o u s i n g m a r k e t s . T h i s h a s b e e n a c h i e v e d t h r o u g h t h e u s e o f s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l s d e r i v e d f r o m d e v e l o p m e n t w o r k u n d e r t a k e n i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s by t h e U r b a n I n s t i t u t e ( U l ) o f W a s h i n g t o n , D . C . T h e U l ' s m o d e l h a s b e e n u t i l i z e d i n t h e U . S . t o e x a m i n e t h e m a r k e t i m p a c t s o f c o n d i t i o n a l demand s i d e s u b s i d i e s f o r s e v e r a l U . S . c i t i e s w i t h r e a s o n a b l e s u c c e s s a n d i t o f f e r s t h e a d v a n t a g e s o f s i m p l i c i t y , t h e o r e t i c a l s o u n d n e s s , p o r t a b i l i t y a n d a f l e x i b l e u n d e r l y i n g s u b m a r k e t s t r u c t u r i n g . The i n i t i a l w o r k a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h i s s t u d y h a s i n v o l v e d b o t h t h e c o n v e r s i o n o f t h e o r i g i n a l U . S . m o d e l f o r u s e i n t h e C a n a d i a n c o n t e x t a n d t h e e n h a n c e m e n t o f t h e c a p a b i l i t i e s o f t h e m o d e l . The m a j o r c o n v e r s i o n m o d i f i c a t i o n s made w e r e t o r e f l e c t d i f f e r e n c e s i n d a t a a v a i l a b i l i t y a n d m a r k e t s t r u c t u r e s b e t w e e n C a n a d a a n d t h e U . S . a n d t o a l l o w a more d i s a g g r e g a t e d r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f an i n d i v i d u a l h o u s i n g m a r k e t . The m a j o r e n h a n c e m e n t s made t o t h e m o d e l i n c l u d e ; 1. t h e c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f t h e h o u s e h o l d s i n t o t e n T Y P E g r o u p s t h a t r e f l e c t r e n t a l o r o w n e r - o c c u p i e r mode o f o c c u p a n c y , 2 . a n ' a p r i o r i ' c l a s s i f i c a t i o n o f t h e " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s a s e i t h e r r e n t a l o r o w n e r - o c c u p i e d , 3 . t h e u s e o f a f t e r t a x i n c o m e s f o r h o u s e h o l d s w h i c h i n c l u d e an i m p u t e d i n c o m e t o o w n e r - o c c u p i e r s f r o m t h e i r e q u i t y i n v e s t m e n t , 4 . t h e t r e a t m e n t o f o w n e r - o c c u p i e r s ' e x p e n d i t u r e s a s a " u s e r c o s t " b a s e d on a c t u a l c o s t d a t a , n o t a s a r e n t e q u i v a l e n c e , 5 . t h e s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f t h e demand f u n c t i o n s i n t e r m s o f t r a n s l o g u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n s w i t h t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s h o u s i n g e x p e n d i t u r e b a s e d on d e r i v e d e x p e n d i t u r e s h a r e s , 158 6 . t h e a d j u s t m e n t o f t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k s u p p l y s y s t e m t o r e f l e c t e n d o f d e c a d e p r i c e s , n o t a v e r a g e d e c a d e p r i c e s . The m o d e l c o n s i d e r s c h a n g e s i n m e t r o p o l i t a n h o u s i n g m a r k e t s o v e r a d e c a d e a n d h a s p r o v e n t o be c a p a b l e o f p r o v i d i n g r e a l i s t i c e s t i m a t e s o f p r o b a b l e c o s t s o f s u p p o r t i n g h o u s i n g s t a n d a r d s . The o n l y c u r r e n t l y a v a i l a b l e d a t a f o r C a n a d i a n c i t i e s t h a t a l l o w s t h e c a l i b r a t i o n o f t h e m o d e l i s t h a t o b t a i n e d i n a s s o c i a t i o n w i t h t h e t e n - y e a r l y C e n s u s . The l a t e s t C e n s u s f o r w h i c h s u c h i n f o r m a t i o n i s a v a i l a b l e i s 1 9 7 1 , a n d c o n s e q u e n t l y t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e m o d e l h a s b e e n r e s t r i c t e d t o c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e 1961 t h r o u g h 1971 p e r i o d . A s i n f o r m a t i o n i s made a v a i l a b l e f r o m t h e 1981 C e n s u s t h e o p p o r t u n i t y w i l l e x i s t f o r a n u p d a t i n g o f t h i s s t u d y . The e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s i s f o c u s e d on s i x a l t e r n a t i v e a b s t r a c t p o l i c y f o r m s w h i c h , i n a g e n e r a l s e n s e , c a n be c o n s i d e r e d t o r e p r e s e n t a l t e r n a t i v e d e g r e e s o f " l e a k a g e " o f s u b s i d y r e c e i p t s t o t h e c o n s u m p t i o n o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s . The t h e o r e t i c a l e v i d e n c e i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e t o t a l s u b s i d y c o s t s w i l l i n c r e a s e a s t h e l e a k a g e t o t h e c o n s u m p t i o n o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s i n c r e a s e s . What i s c r i t i c a l t o t h e r e l a t i v e e f f i c i e n c y o f t h e a l t e r n a t i v e f o r m s o f i n t e r v e n t i o n i s t h e m a g n i t u d e o f t h e l e a k a g e . The a i m o f t h e p r e s e n t e d e m p i r i c a l a n a l y s i s i s t o q u a n t i f y t h e m a g n i t u d e o f t h e r e l a t i v e l e a k a g e s . I n o r d e r t o d e r i v e c o m p a r a b l e e s t i m a t e s f r o m t h e a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c y s c e n a r i o s , t h e s i m u l a t i o n s a r e b a s e d on s u p p o r t i n g o r m e e t i n g a m i n i m u m s t a n d a r d o f . h o u s i n g i n t h e m a r k e t . The i m p l e m e n t a t i o n .of s u c h a m i n i m u m s t a n d a r d c o u l d be v i a z o n i n g a n d b u i l d i n g c o d e r e s t r i c t i o n s o r v i a a n e a r m a r k i n g r e q u i r e m e n t (mus t meet m i n i m u m h o u s i n g r e q u i r e m e n t b e f o r e r e c e i v i n g s u b s i d y ) o r a c o m b i n a t i o n o f t h e t w o . A s s i m u l a t e d , t h e i m p l i c i t a c t i o n i s one o f r e g u l a t i n g a m i n i m u m s t a n d a r d t h r o u g h b u i l d i n g a n d 159 o c c u p a n c y c o d e u p g r a d i n g a n d e n f o r c e m e n t , w i t h h o u s e h o l d s f o r c e d t o d o u b l e - u p o r l e a v e t h e m a r k e t i f t h e y a r e n o t a b l e t o " f i n d " s u i t a b l e a c c o m m o d a t i o n f r o m t h e a v a i l a b l e s t o c k . A m o d e l o f a h o u s i n g m a r k e t i s f a r f r o m a t r u e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f r e a l i t y a n d t h u s one mus t h a v e r e s e r v a t i o n s a b o u t t h e v a l i d i t y o f t h e d e r i v e d r e s u l t s . T h e r e a r e t h r e e m a i n a r e a s w h e r e c o n c e r n s w i t h t h i s p a r t i c u l a r m o d e l a r i s e . F i r s t , on t h e demand s i d e , w h i l e a m a j o r i m p r o v e m e n t ( r e s p e c i f i e d demand s y s t e m ) h a s b e e n i n c o r p o r a t e d , b e h a v i o u r i s s t i l l p o t e n t i a l l y o v e r - s i m p l i f i e d , w i t h h o u s e h o l d s m e r e l y c h o o s i n g b e t w e e n h o u s i n g a n d o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s . The m o d e l i g n o r e s t h e p o s s i b l e i m p a c t o f s u b s i d i e s on work i n c e n t i v e s , o r h o u s e h o l d f o r m a t i o n , o r t e n u r e s w i t c h i n g . F u r t h e r m o r e , no p r o v i s i o n i s made f o r n o n c o m p l i a n c e w i t h p o l i c y r e g u l a t i o n s , n o r f o r n o n e c o n o m i c i n f l u e n c e s t h a t may i m p a c t on a h o u s e h o l d ' s r e s p o n s e t o t h e p r o v i s i o n o f a s u b s i d y . S e c o n d , t h e s u p p l y s i d e o f t h e m o d e l i s r e l a t i v e l y w e a k . T h i s r e s u l t s f r o m a l a c k o f s u i t a b l e d a t a f r o m w h i c h d e t a i l s on t h e p o t e n t i a l r e s p o n s i v e n e s s o f t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k t o p r i c e c h a n g e s may be d e r i v e d . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e m o d e l h a s r e s t r i c t e d i t s e l f t o a s i m p l i s t i c r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n i n d u s t r y w i t h no t r e a t m e n t o f t h e b a s i c d e t e r m i n a n t s o f p r o d u c t i o n c o s t s o r o f t h e f e e d b a c k e f f e c t s t h a t may r e s u l t f r o m i n c o m e r e d i s t r i b u t i o n . The n e t r e s u l t i s t h a t t h e s u p p l y s y s t e m t e n d s t o l e a v e a q u e s t i o n a b l e r a n g e o f u n c e r t a i n t y r e g a r d i n g t h e r e s p o n s i v e n e s s o f t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k t o s u b s i d y s t i m u l a t i o n . The f i n a l m a j o r c o n c e r n l i e s w i t h t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f p o l i c y o p t i o n s . I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e l i m i t e d number o f m o d e l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s i s t o o a g g r e g a t i v e t o a l l o w t h e m o d e l t o s e r v e a s a r e l i a b l e p r e d i c t o r o f t h e d e t a i l e d c o n s e q u e n c e s o f i n t e r v e n t i o n a n d 160 no means i s a v a i l a b l e t o e v a l u a t e t h e i m p a c t o f t h e manne r i n w h i c h a p o l i c y i s i n t r o d u c e d . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e c o m p u t e d s u b s i d y c o s t s do n o t i n c l u d e a d m i n i s t r a t i o n c o s t s , n o r do t h e y a l l o w f o r l e a k a g e s i n c u r r e d due t o p o o r p r o g r a m i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o r c o n s i d e r t h e d e s i g n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f p r o g r a m s r e q u i r e d t o a c h i e v e t h e s p e c i f i c r e s u l t s . T h e m o d e l i s a n e x t r e m e l y c o m p l e x s y s t e m i n i t s e l f y e t s t i l l r e m a i n s a s i m p l i s t i c r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f a m e t r o p o l i t a n h o u s i n g m a r k e t w i t h an u n c o m f o r t a b l y l a r g e r a n g e o f u n c e r t a i n t y . I n i n c o r p o r a t i n g a s u p p l y s y s t e m w h i c h t e n d s t o b i a s r e s u l t s a g a i n s t t h e " d i r e c t p r o d u c t " p o l i c y o p t i o n s i t h a s b e e n p o s s i b l e t o a t l e a s t p r o v i d e r e s u l t s t h a t a r e r e l i a b l e e n o u g h , w i t h r e g a r d t o d i r e c t i o n a n d m a g n i t u d e , t o w a r r a n t s e r i o u s c o n s i d e r a t i o n . T h e g e n e r a l c o n c l u s i o n s t o be d r a w n f r o m t h e s i m u l a t i o n a r e w i t h r e g a r d t o t h e r e l a t i v e c o s t e f f i c i e n c i e s o f t h e a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c y f o r m s a n d t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f d e c e n t r a l i z e d h o u s i n g p r o g r a m d e s i g n a n d i m p l e m e n t a t i o n . The m o d i f i e d h o u s i n g m a r k e t m o d e l s i m u l a t i o n s i n d i c a t e t h a t a g e n e r a l d i r e c t p r o d u c t o r i e n t e d p o l i c y , w i t h t h e g r a n t e d s u b s i d y t i e d d i r e c t l y t o t h e c h a n g e i n t h e h o u s i n g s u p p l i e d ( c o n s u m e d ) w i l l r e s u l t i n s u b s i d y c o s t s o f a t m o s t o n l y o n e - t h i r d t h a t o f t h o s e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a g e n e r a l i n c o m e r e d i s t r i b u t i o n p o l i c y . W i t h w e l l - s t r u c t u r e d p r o g r a m s , t h e " d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d " p o l i c y s i m u l a t i o n s s u g g e s t t h a t t h e a c t u a l d i r e c t s u b s i d y c o s t , n e t o f a d m i n i s t r a t i o n c o s t s , c o u l d be r e d u c e d t o a s l o w a s o n e - t e n t h t h e c o s t o f a g e n e r a l i n c o m e r e d i s t r i b u t i o n p o l i c y . S i m u l a t i o n s p e f o r m e d u s i n g a C a n a d i a n V e r s i o n o f t h e o r i g i n a l U l m o d e l i n d i c a t e d e v e n w i d e r m a r g i n s b e t w e e n t h e c o s t s f o r t h e p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s , a s a r e s u l t o f t h e g r e a t e r i n e l a s t i c i t y o f t h e s u p p l y f u n c t i o n s i n c o r p o r a t e d ( s u p p l y o f 161 h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s f r o m t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k ) . The s i m u l a t e d c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e " d i r e c t p r o d u c t " f o r m s o f i n t e r v e n t i o n a r e , on a v e r a g e , a s l o w a s o n l y 20% o f t h o s e f o r t h e " i n c o m e " p o l i c i e s , w i t h t h e c o s t u n d e r a " d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d " o p t i o n d r o p p i n g t o a s l o w a s 5%. W h i l e t h e r e e x i s t n u m e r o u s o p p o r t u n i t i e s t o r e f i n e t h e s t r u c t u r e a n d p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e m o d e l , t h e u t i l i t y o f u n d e r t a k i n g s u c h w o r k i s s e r i o u s l y q u e s t i o n e d , g i v e n t h e c u r r e n t s h o r t a g e o f s u i t a b l e d a t a f r o m w h i c h t o d e r i v e b e h a v i o u r a l p a r a m e t e r s , i n p a r t i c u l a r t h o s e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e s u p p l y o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s f r o m t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k . T h i s s h o r t a g e o f d a t a s e v e r e l y h a m p e r s t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e s u p p l y s i d e o f t h e m o d e l a n d i t i s t h e r e s p o n s i v e n e s s o f t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k a n d t h e h o u s i n g p r o d u c t i o n i n d u s t r y t o s u b s i d y s t i m u l a t i o n t h a t r e m a i n s a s t h e m a j o r d e t e r m i n a n t o f t h e d o l l a r c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h h o u s i n g m a r k e t s u p p o r t . W i t h t h e u n c e r t a i n t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e t r u e p r i c e r e s p o n s i v e n e s s o f t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k a n d t h e l i m i t e d number o f m o d e l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s (one h u n d r e d ) i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t h e m o d e l , a t t e m p t s t o r e f i n e t h e s i m u l a t i o n s t o c o n s i d e r t h e s t r u c t u r i n g o f p r o g r a m s u n d e r t h e a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c i e s become f u t i l e . H o w e v e r , wha t c a n be c o n c l u d e d f r o m t h e s i m u l a t i o n w i t h r e g a r d t o p o l i c y / p r o g r a m i m p l e m e n t a t i o n i s t h a t t h e m a i n a i m i n t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n m u s t be one o f t a r g e t i n g t h e s u b s i d y t o t h e d w e l l i n g s w i t h t h e l o w e s t m a r g i n a l c o s t o f u p g r a d i n g . I n some CMAs t h i s may i m p l y t h a t a l l t h e i n t e r v e n t i o n c a n be f o c u s e d on t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k ; w i t h o t h e r C M A s , a s h i g h l i g h t e d by t h e C a l g a r y s i m u l a t i o n , s u p p o r t o f m i n i m u m h o u s i n g s t a n d a r d s may be b e t t e r s e r v e d by p r o g r a m s f o c u s i n g on new c o n s t r u c t i o n . B u t h o u s i n g m a r k e t s a r e n o t s t a t i c . P o l i c i e s a n d p r o g r a m s m u s t c h a n g e w i t h t h e 162 c h a n g i n g s t a t e o f t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k a n d p r o v i d e s u f f i c i e n t f l e x i b i l i t y s u c h t h a t e a c h CMA i s s e r v e d by i t s own s e r i e s o f i n t e r r e l a t e d p r o g r a m s t h a t t a r g e t v a r y i n g s u b s i d y a m o u n t s t o a l t e r n a t i v e l y r e n o v a t i o n a n d new c o n s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t y . W h i l e t h e s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l h a s b e e n s u c c e s s f u l i n h i g h l i g h t i n g t h e s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e i n t h e c o s t s t h a t w o u l d p o t e n t i a l l y be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a l t e r n a t i v e g e n e r a l f o r m s o f h o u s i n g m a r k e t i n t e r v e n t i o n . , t h e m o d e l ' s o v e r a l l s t r u c t u r e , a n d i n p a r t i c u l a r i t s s i m p l i s t i c r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f m a r k e t b e h a v i o u r , s e v e r e l y l i m i t s a n y d e t a i l e d p r o g r a m a n a l y s e s t h a t c a n be p e r f o r m e d . To s u c c e s s f u l l y q u a n t i f y t h e p r o b a b l e i m p a c t o f p a r t i c u l a r p r o g r a m s t r u c t u r e s r e q u i r e s b o t h more c u r r e n t d a t a a n d d a t a c o n t a i n i n g more d e t a i l on t h e s t a t e o f t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k t h a n i s now a v a i l a b l e . T h i s t h e s i s h a s a d d r e s s e d t h e i s s u e o f "wha t a r e t h e p o t e n t i a l c o s t s " t h a t t h e g o v e r n m e n t w o u l d i n c u r i f i t s e l e c t e d t o s u p p o r t h o u s i n g s t a n d a r d s u n d e r a s e r i e s o f a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c y o p t i o n s . T h e a i m h a s b e e n t o m e a s u r e t h e d e g r e e o f t h e l e a k a g e o f t h e p r o v i d e d s u b s i d y t o t h e c o n s u m p t i o n o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s . B u t t h e o p t i m a l p o l i c y i n a n y one i n s t a n c e i s d e p e n d e n t on b o t h p o l i t i c a l m a n d a t e a n d c h o i c e ; a d e c i s i o n p r o c e s s b e y o n d t h e r e a l m o f t e c h n i c a l a n a l y s i s . A p p r o a c h e s t o t h e r e d i s t i b u t i o n o f r e s o u r c e s i n s o c i a l l y d e s i r e d ways c a n be p o l a r i z e d i n t o two g e n e r a l c a m p s . The f i r s t i n v o l v e s p u r e i n c o m e f o r m s o f r e d i s t r i b u t i o n w i t h l i t t l e o r no i n t e r f e r e n c e i n t h e u s e o f t h e r e d i s t r i b u t e d r e s o u r c e : t h e s e c o n d i n v o l v e s r e d i s t r i b u t i o n i n t h e f o r m o f s e l e c t e d ( " m e r i t " ) g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s . One c a n d r a w t h e same d i c h o t o m y w i t h t h e s e l e c t e d p o l i c y a l t e r n a t i v e s . I n c o m p a r i n g a n d c o n t r a s t i n g t h e s e t w o a l t e r n a t i v e a p p r o a c h e s 163 t o r e s o u r c e r e d i s t r i b u t i o n , a n i s s u e n o t a d d r e s s e d i n t h i s t h e s i s i s t h a t c o n c e r n e d w i t h M u s g r a v e ' s ( 1 9 7 6 ) c o n c e p t o f t h r e s h o l d i n c o m e l e v e l s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a l t e r n a t i v e " m e r i t " g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s . O b v i o u s l y , u n d e r a n " i n c o m e " s u b s i d y one i s s u p p o r t i n g h o u s e h o l d s a t t h e i r h o u s i n g t h r e s h o l d i n c o m e l e v e l , b u t i n s o d o i n g , i s one a l l o w i n g t h e h o u s e h o l d s t o e x c e e d t h e i r t h r e s h o l d l e v e l s f o r a l l o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s ? E x p e r i e n c e s u g g e s t s t h e a f f i r m a t i v e b u t w i t h o u t a d e f i n e d s o c i a l l y a c c e p t a b l e m i n i m u m l e v e l o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s one c a n n o t r e l a t e c o m b i n e d s o c i a l s u p p o r t t o a p u r e h o u s i n g s u p p o r t p o l i c y . A l t e r n a t i v e l y , w i t h o u t s o c i a l l y d e f i n e d a c c e p t a b l e m i n i m u m l e v e l s one d o e s n o t know w h e t h e r o r n o t t h e " d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d " p o l i c y o p t i o n i s p o l i t i c a l l y v i a b l e , o r w h e t h e r t h e a l t e r n a t i v e f o r m s o f " d i r e c t p r o d u c t " i n t e r v e n t i o n w i l l p r o v i d e t h e t o t a l a d d i t i o n a l r e s o u r c e s r e q u i r e d t o be r e d i s t r i b u t e d . The a i m o f t h i s s t u d y was t o h i g h l i g h t t h e r e l a t i v e c o s t s o f s u p p o r t i n g a C a n a d i a n h o u s i n g m a r k e t u n d e r s e v e r a l a l t e r n a t i v e a b s t r a c t e d p o l i c y f o r m s t h a t r e f l e c t b o t h g e n e r a l a p p r o a c h e s t o r e s o u r c e r e d i s t r i b u t i o n . I n d e s i g n i n g a n d i m p l e m e n t i n g p r o g r a m s t o m a t c h t h e s e p o l i c i e s t h e two k e y p a r a m e t e r s a r e t h e amoun t o f t h e s u b s i d y a n d t h e means o f i n s u r i n g t h a t t h e h o u s i n g r e a c h e s t h e r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d s . A d m i n i s t r a t i o n c o s t s t y p i c a l l y become a m a j o r c o n s i d e r a t i o n i n p r o g r a m d e s i g n , b u t s u c h c o s t s a r e s e e n a s b e i n g c o r r e l a t e d w i t h t h e e q u i t y o f t h e p r o g r a m , n o t n e c e s s a r i l y t h e e f f i c i e n c y . T h a t i s , p r o g r a m s w h i c h r e q u i r e t h e s u b s i d y a m o u n t s t o be d i s t r i b u t e d t h r o u g h o u t t h e m a r k e t w i l l t y p i c a l l y i n v o l v e h i g h e r a d m i n i s t r a t i o n c o s t s t h a n t h o s e d e p e n d i n g on f i l t e r i n g t o f o c u s t h e s u p p o r t on a l i m i t e d s e c t o r o f t h e m a r k e t . H o w e v e r , b o t h f o r m s c a n a c h i e v e t h e same l o n g r u n m a r k e t s t a t e . The means by w h i c h t h e 1 64 r e s p e c t i v e p o l i c y modes a r e i m p l e m e n t e d w i l l t e c h n i c a l l y be d e t e r m i n e d by t h e p o l i t i c a l l y d e s i r e d " e q u i t y " o f t h e t r a n s f e r s . F u r t h e r m o r e , one mus t d i s t i n g u i s h b e t w e e n t h e s h o r t r u n a n d l o n g r u n " e q u i t y " o f t h e p r o g r a m s . P a s t p r o g r a m s g e a r e d t o t h e s u p p o r t o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n h a v e b e e n c o n s i d e r e d i n e q u i t a b l e ( D e n n i s a n d F i s h ( 1 9 7 2 ) ) b e c a u s e t h e s u b s i d y i s p r o v i d e d t o b u t a few h o u s e h o l d s . W h i l e s u c h p r o g r a m s may be i n e q u i t a b l e i n t h e s h o r t r u n , t h e f i l t e r i n g p r o c e s s may a l l o w a r e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e s u b s i d y e f f e c t s , p r o v i d i n g f o r a n e q u i t a b l e d i s t r i b u t i o n i n t h e l o n g r u n . 165 R E F E R E N C E S A a r o n H . J . , ' I n c o m e T a x e s a n d H o u s i n g ' , The A m e r i c a n E c o n o m i c R e v i e w ( D e c . 1970 ) p p 7 8 9 - 8 0 6 . A a r o n H . J . a n d G . M . 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M a r s h a l l , Some P r o j e c t i o n s o f H o u s i n g i n U r b a n A m e r i c a i n 1980 U r b a n I n s t i t u t e W o r k i n g P a p e r N o . 2 3 5 -0 1 , W a s h i n g t o n D . C , ( N o v . 1 9 7 6 ) . S u n l e y E . M . , ' T a x A d v a n t a g e s o f H o m e o w n e r s h i p V e r s u s R e n t i n g : A C a u s e o f U r b a n M i g r a t i o n ? ' , P r o c e e d i n g s o f t h e S i x t y - T h i r d A n n u a l C o n f e r e n c e on T a x a t i o n N a t i o n a l T a x A s s o c i a t i o n ( 1 9 7 0 ) p p 3 7 7 - 3 9 2 . Swan C , ' H o u s i n g S u b s i d i e s a n d H o u s i n g S t a r t s ' , A m e r i c a n Real - E s t a t e a n d U r b a n E c o n o m i c s A s s o c i a t i o n J o u r n a l 1 ( F a l l 1 9 7 3 ) , p p 1 1 9 - 1 4 0 . S w e e n e y J . , ' A C o m m o d i t y H i e r a r c h y M o d e l o f t h e R e n t a l H o u s i n g M a r k e t ' , J o u r n a l o f U r b a n E c o n o m i c s 1 ( 1 9 7 4 ) , p p 2 8 8 - 3 2 3 . 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C , ' S u b s t a n d a r d H o u s i n g : T h e T r e n d a n d C u r r e n t S i t u a t i o n ' , i n H o u s i n g D e l i v e r y S y s t e m O h i o S t a t e U n i v e r s i t y : C e n t e r f o r R e a l E s t a t e E d u c a t i o n a n d R e s e a r c h ( O c t 1979) pp 5 9 - 7 5 W i l k e n s o n R . K . , ' T h e I n c o m e E l a s t i c i t y o f Demand f o r H o u s i n g 1 , O x f o r d E c o n o m i c P a p e r s ( 1 9 7 3 ) p p 3 6 1 - 3 7 7 . W i n g e r A . R . , ' H o u s i n g a n d I n c o m e ' , W e s t e r n E c o n o m i c J o u r n a l ( 1 9 6 8 ) , p p 2 2 6 - 3 2 2 . W i n g e r A . R . , ' T h e C r i t e r i a f o r E v a l u a t i n g t h e R o l e o f G o v e r n m e n t i n H o u s i n g M a r k e t s ' , i n H o u s i n g i n t h e S e v e n t i e s W o r k i n g P a p e r s 1, W a s h i n g t o n : U . S . D e p a r t m e n t o f H o u s i n g a n d U r b a n D e v e l o p m e n t ( 1 9 7 6 ) , p p 2 5 1 - 2 6 6 . i n an u n p u b l i s h e d r e p o r t t o t h e C a n a d a H o u s i n g a n d M o r t g a g e C o r p o r a t i o n , 173 A P P E N D I X : T h e p u r p o s e o f t h i s A P P E N D I X i s t o d i s c u s s t h e t e c h n i q u e s e m p l o y e d i n o p e r a t i o n a l i z i n g 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 7 1 C a n a d i a n V e r s i o n s o f t h e HOUSING MARKET MODEL, d e s c r i b e t h e d a t a t h a t i s u t i l i z e d a n d p r e s e n t e x a m p l e c o m p u t a t i o n s b a s e d on t h e V a n c o u v e r C M A . Two a l t e r n a t i v e s i m u l a t i o n MODELS h a v e b e e n d e v e l o p e d ; t h e f i r s t ( t e r m e d t h e O R I G I N A L MODEL) i s s i m p l y a C a n a d i a n i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e U l ' s o r i g i n a l m o d e l , w h i l e t h e s e c o n d ( t e r m e d t h e M O D I F I E D MODEL) i n c o r p o r a t e s many i m p r o v e m e n t s d e v e l o p e d a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , V a n c o u v e r , a n d t h e C a n a d a M o r t g a g e a n d H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n , O t t a w a . W h i l e t h e a p p r o a c h t o i m p l e m e n t i n g t h e two a l t e r n a t i v e MODELS i s s i m i l a r , t h e r e a r e s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e s i n t h e n a t u r e o f t h e d a t a u s e d a n d t h e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e MODEL s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m s . I n t h e f o l l o w i n g S E C T I O N S t h e d e s c r i p t i o n s o f t h e a p p l i c a t i o n s f o r t h e t w o MODELS h a v e b e e n s e p a r a t e d , w i t h a d e t a i l e d p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e O R I G I N A L MODEL b e i n g p r o v i d e d i n S E C T I O N A 1 . The d e c r i p t i o n o f t h e M O D I F I E D MODEL, c o n t a i n e d i n S E C T I O N A 2 , o n l y h i g h l i g h t s a n d d e t a i l s t h e a r e a s o f v a r i a t i o n i n t h e a p p r o a c h e s . R e p r e s e n t a t i v e d a t a g e n e r a t e d d u r i n g m o d e l i m p l e m e n t a t i o n f o r e i g h t s e l e c t e d CMAs a r e p r e s e n t e d on a CMA b a s i s i n A P P E N D I X A3 w i t h t h e FORTRAN p r o g r a m s u t i l i z e d l i s t e d i n S E C T I O N A 4 . A d e t a i l e d s e t o f d e r i v e d p o l i c y s i m u l a t i o n r e s u l t s a r e p r e s e n t e d i n S E C T I O N A 5 . 174 S E C T I O N A 1 : The O R I G I N A L HOUSING MARKET MODEL I n i m p l e m e n t i n g t h e O R I G I N A L MODEL t h r e e s e t s o f p a r a m e t e r s mus t be e s t i m a t e d : t h e A L P H A S , t h e GAMMAs a n d t h e B E T A S i n o r d e r . I n d e r i v i n g t h e s e p a r a m e t e r s a l l d a t a r e q u i r e d f o r s u b s e q u e n t p o l i c y s i m u l a t i o n s a r e g e n e r a t e d . I n g e n e r a t i n g t h e " m o d e l " r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s o f a CMA s e v e r a l i n t e r d e p e n d e n t d a t a m a n i p u l a t i o n s a r e r e q u i r e d . T h e s e m a n i p u l a t i o n s c a n be r o u g h l y c l a s s i f i e d i n t o t h r e e g r o u p s ; 1. s i m p l e a n a l y t i c a l c a l c u l a t i o n s 2 . r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s e s , a n d 3 . c o m p u t e r i s e d m a n i p u l a t i o n s . The g e n e r a l m a n i p u l a t i o n s r e q u i r e d t o g e n e r a t e t h e d a t a f o r a CMA i n t h e c a s e o f t h e O R I G I N A L MODEL a r e : 1. d e l i n e a t e t h e CMA i n t o t h e s p e c i f i e d number o f z o n e s . W h i l e t h e MODELS h a v e t h e c a p a b i l i t y o f h a n d l i n g up t o t e n z o n e s , f i v e z o n e s h a v e b e e n e m p l o y e d t h r o u g h o u t t h i s s t u d y f o r c o n s i s t e n c y t h r o u g h t h e r a n g e o f CMA s i z e s [ S e c t i o n A 1 . 4 1 ] , 2 . c a l c u l a t e by z o n e t h e a v e r a g e i n c o m e a n d a v e r a g e a c c e s s f o r u s e i n d e t e r m i n i n g z o n a l e x t e r n a l i t i e s [ S e c t i o n A 1 . 4 2 ] . 3 . c r e a t e t h e 1971 " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s a n d d a t a on mean i n c o m e s by h o u s e h o l d T Y P E . I n c o m e d a t a f r o m t h e 1974 S u r v e y o f H o u s i n g U n i t s d e f l a t e d t o a 1971 mean a r e u s e d [ S e c t i o n A 1 . 4 3 ] . 4 . c a l c u l a t e t h e A L P H A p a r a m e t e r s b y h o u s e h o l d T Y P E v i a m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n , a g a i n u t i l i z i n g t h e 1974 SHU d a t a a n d d e f l a t o r s d r a w n f r o m 1971 c e n s u s d a t a [ S e c t i o n A 1 . 3 2 ] . 5 . e s t i m a t e t h e new c o n s t r u c t i o n p r i c e p a r a m e t e r s , P N , P O , a n d P C , u s e d i n s p e c i f y i n g t h e s u p p l y f u n c t i o n s . T h e s e c a l c u l a t i o n s i n v o l v e m a n i p u l a t i o n o f d a t a f r o m t h e C a n a d i a n H o u s i n g S t a t i s t i c s [ S e c t i o n A 1 . 3 1 ] . The m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n p a r a m e t e r , QM, i s c a l c u l a t e d d u r i n g t h e d e r i v a t i o n o f t h e " B E T A " c a l i b r a t i o n d a t a s e t [ S e c t i o n A 1 . 4 5 ] 175 6 . e s t i m a t e t h e 1971 h e d o n i c c o e f f i c i e n t s t h a t a r e u s e d t o c o n v e r t a c t u a l 1971 r e n t s a n d p r i c e s f r o m " r e s i d e n t i a l " s e r v i c e s t o " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s ; t h e u n i t o f q u a n t i t y e m p l o y e d i n t h e M O D E L S . T h e s e c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e e s t i m a t e d v i a m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n u t i l i z i n g 1971 c e n s u s d a t a i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t h e 1974 SHU d a t a [ S e c t i o n A 1 . 3 1 ] . 7 . by u s i n g t h e 1971 h e d o n i c c o e f f i c i e n t s i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h e 1971 c e n s u s d a t a c r e a t e t h e 1971 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s . T h e s e " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s a r e r e p r e s e n t e d i n t h e MODELS by t h e i r mean a d j u s t e d m o n t h l y r e n t ( o r e q u i v a l e n t u s e r c o s t ) a n d t h e z o n e i n w h i c h t h e y a r e l o c a t e d . I n a d d i t i o n , c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e a c t u a l 1971 h o u s e h o l d s by T Y P E a n d z o n e a r e g e n e r a t e d a n d a l o n g w i t h a c t u a l d w e l l i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s p r o v i d e a b a s i s f o r c a l i b r a t i o n c a l c u l a t i o n s [ S e c t i o n A 1 . 4 5 ] . T h e s e o p e r a t i o n s p r o v i d e t h e d a t a r e q u i r e d t o e s t i m a t e t h e GAMMA p a r a m e t e r s o f t h e MODEL v i a s i m u l a t i o n . F o r d e t a i l s o f t h i s c a l i b r a t i o n p r o c e s s s e e S e c t i o n 8 . 3 2 1 . The n e x t s t e p s i n v o l v e g e n e r a t i n g t h e a l t e r n a t i v e d a t a s e t r e q u i r e d f o r e s t i m a t i n g t h e BETA p a r a m e t e r s . S t e p s 6 a n d 7 m u s t be r e p e a t e d t o g e n e r a t e t h e 1961 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s . 8 . e s t i m a t e t h e 1961 h e d o n i c c o e f f i c i e n t s , a g a i n v i a m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n , b u t u s i n g t h e 1961 C e n s u s d a t a a g g r e g a t e d a t t h e e n u m e r a t i o n a r e a l e v e l [ S e c t i o n A 1 . 3 1 ] . 9 . g e n e r a t e t h e 1961 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s u s i n g t h e 1961 h e d o n i c c o e f f i c i e n t s a n d 1961 C e n s u s t r a c t d a t a [ S e c t i o n A 1 . 4 4 ] , 1 0 . I n a d d i t i o n , c a l i b r a t i o n d a t a r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e c h a n g e i n m a r k e t c o n d i t i o n s o v e r t h e d e c a d e a r e d e r i v e d . T h i s i n v o l v e s u t i l i z i n g b o t h t h e 1961 a n d t h e 1971 h e d o n i c c o e f f i c i e n t s i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h e 1961 a n d 1971 C e n s u s t r a c t d a t a t o g e n e r a t e p r i c e i n d i c i e s by z o n e . A d d i t i o n a l d a t a on d e c a d e -e n d h o u s e h o l d a n d d w e l l i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a r e d e r i v e d f r o m t h e 1971 d a t a [ S e c t i o n A 1 . 3 4 ] . A c o m p l e t e B E T A c a l i b r a t i o n d a t a s e t d i f f e r s f r o m t h e GAMMA s e t i n t h a t t h e 1961 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s r e p l a c e t h e 1971 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s a n d t h e a l t e r n a t i v e c a l i b r a t i o n d a t a s e t i s i n c l u d e d . The BETA c a l i b r a t i o n p r o c e s s i s d e t a i l e d i n S e c t i o n 8 . 3 2 2 . The f i n a l d a t a s e t r e q u i r e d i s t h a t f o r p o l i c y s i m u l a t i o n s . T h i s d a t a s e t i s i d e n t i c a l t o t h e BETA c a l i b r a t i o n d a t a s e t e x c e p t t h a t t h e c a l i b r a t i o n d a t a i s d e l e t e d a n d i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e " b a s e " 176 s o l u t i o n c o n d i t i o n s i n c l u d e d a s p a r t o f t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d r e c o r d s . T h i s d a t a s e t i s g e n e r a t e d by t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m p r o g r a m " S I M 0 1 . F O R T " when i n " b a s e " m o d e . D e t a i l s o f t h i s p r o c e d u r e a r e c o n t a i n e d i n S e c t i o n A 1 . 5 : B a s e M o d e . F o r p u r p o s e s o f t h e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s e s a n d-the c o m p u t e r i s e d m a n i p u l a t i o n s , s e v e r a l d a t a f i l e s a r e c r e a t e d f r o m a v a i l a b l e m a c h i n e r e a d a b l e s o u r c e s f o r e a c h CMA e v a l u a t e d . I n t h e f o l l o w i n g S e c t i o n t h e s e d a t a f i l e s a r e d e s c r i b e d i n d e t a i l , f o l l o w e d by a n o u t l i n e o f t h e a d d i t i o n a l f i l e s c r e a t e d by t h e u t i l i t y c o m p u t e r p r o g r a m s . The s u b s e q u e n t S e c t i o n d e t a i l s t h e s i m p l e a n a l y t i c a l c a l c u l a t i o n s a n d r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s e s r e q u i r e d f o r t h i s V E R S I O N o f t h e M O D E L . A f u r t h e r S e c t i o n o u t l i n e s t h e a d d i t i o n a l c o m p u t e r i s e d d a t a m a n i p u l a t i o n s i n v o l v e d a p p r o x i m a t e l y i n t h e o r d e r i n w h i c h t h e y a r e n o r m a l l y u n d e r t a k e n . The f i n a l S e c t i o n d e t a i l s t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m p r o g r a m a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e O R I G I N A L M O D E L . 177 A 1 . 1 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : DATA F I L E S F o r e x p e d i e n c y i n d e s c r i b i n g t h e r e q u i r e d d a t a m a n i p u l a t i o n s t h e r e l e v a n t d a t a f i l e s e m p l o y e d a r e d e t a i l e d i n f u l l i n t h e f o l l o w i n g S e c t i o n . A 1 . 1 1 Raw D a t a F i l e s D a t a u t i l i z e d by t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t m o d e l p r o g r a m a r e d r a w n f r o m t h r e e m a j o r s o u r c e s . . 1. t h e 1961 C a n a d i a n C e n s u s 2 . t h e 1971 C a n a d i a n C e n s u s , a n d 3 . t h e 1974 S u r v e y o f H o u s i n g U n i t s ( S H U ) . T h e s e d a t a h a v e b e e n m a n i p u l a t e d i n t o s p e c i a l l y f o r m a t t e d f i l e s f o r i n p u t t o t h e v a r i o u s u t i l i t y p r o g r a m s t h a t c o m b i n e t o f o r m t h e M O D E L S . F o r c o n s i s t e n c y , t h e s e f i l e s h a v e b e e n i d e n t i f i e d by C M A , y e a r a n d a p p l i c a t i o n . I n t h i s A P P E N D I X t h e s e f i l e names a r e p r e f i x e d by " C M A " i n d i c a t i n g t h a t i n u s e , a CMA name c o d e i s e m p l o y e d a s t h e l e a d i n g p r e f i x . F i v e b a s i c raw d a t a f i l e s a r e r e q u i r e d t o a l l o w t h e c a l i b r a t i o n o f t h e O R I G I N A L MODEL f o r e a c h CMA T h e y a r e ; 1. C M A 6 1 . E A 1961 C e n s u s d a t a a r e a g g r e g a t e d a t t h e e n u m e r a t i o n a r e a l e v e l . T h e s e d a t a a r e u s e d a s i n p u t t o t h e r e g r e s s i o n p a c k a g e f o r e s t i m a t i n g t h e 1961 H e d o n i c e q u a t i o n s , . 2 . C M A 6 1 . I N P U T S e l e c t e d 1961 C e n s u s d a t a a g g r e g a t e d a t t h e c e n s u s t r a c t l e v e l . T h e s e d a t a a r e b a s i c h o u s e h o l d a n d h o u s i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s e m p l o y e d t o c r e a t e t h e 1961 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s . 178 C M A 7 1 . I N P U T The e q u i v a l e n t 1971 C e n s u s t r a c t d a t a f i l e . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e b a s i c h o u s e h o l d a n d h o u s i n g d a t a , t h i s f i l e c o n t a i n s d e m o g r a p h i c d a t a u s e d i n c a l i b r a t i n g t h e m o d e l t o a CMA C M A 7 1 . S H U C o n t a i n s s e l e c t e d r e c o r d s f r o m t h e S u r v e y o f H o u s i n g U n i t s m a s t e r t a p e f i l e . T h i s f i l e i s u s e d i n e s t i m a t i n g t h e 1971 H e d o n i c E q u a t i o n s , t h e e x p e n d i t u r e - i n c o m e r a t i o s ( A L P H A p a r a m e t e r s ) a n d f o r t h e c r e a t i o n o f t h e 1971 " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s . C M A 7 1 . T A B C o n t a i n s d a t a on t h e s p a t i a l r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n 1961 a n d 1971 C e n s u s t r a c t s . T h i s f i l e a l l o w s t h e t r a n s f e r e n c e o f z o n a l c l u s t e r i n g b a s e d on a 1961 c e n s u s t r a c t t o t h e 1971 c e n s u s t r a c t . I n t h e f o l l o w i n g S e c t i o n t h e r e c o r d s t r u c t u r e o f e a c h o f t h e s e f i v e f i l e s i s d e s c r i b e d . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e s t r u c t u r e o f a n i n t e r m e d i a t e f i l e , C M A 7 1 . D I S . V , r e q u i r e d i n t h e c r e a t i o n o f C M A 7 1 . I N P U T i s d e t a i l e d . 1 79 C M A 6 1 . E A F I L E : 1961 ENUMERATION AREA DATA V a r i a b l e F i e l d F i e l d Name Number Number 0 1 1- 6 c e n s u s t r a c t i d e n t i f i c a t i o n 1 2 7 - 1 6 p r o p o r t i o n s i n g l e d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n 2 3 1 7 - 2 6 p r o p o r t i o n o w n e r - o c c u p i e d d w e l l i n g 3 4 2 7 - 3 6 p r o p o r t i o n r e n t a l d w e l l i n g s 4 5 3 7 - 4 6 a g e : p r o p o r t i o n p r e 20 5 6 4 7 - 5 6 p r o p o r t i o n 1 9 2 0 - 1 9 4 5 6 7 5 7 - 6 6 p r o p o r t i o n 1 9 4 6 - 1 9 5 9 7 8 6 7 - 7 6 p r o p o r t i o n 1960 8 9 7 7 - 8 6 p r o p o r t i o n 1961 9 1 0 8 7 - 9 6 p r o p o r t i o n i n g o o d c o n d i t i o n 10 1 1 9 7 - 1 0 6 p r o p o r t i o n n e e d m i n o r r e p a i r 1 1 1 2 1 0 7 - 1 1 6 p r o p o r t i o n n e e d m a j o r r e p a i r 1 2 1 3 1 1 7 - 1 2 6 p r o p o r t i o n f u r n a c e h e a t 13 1 4 1 2 7 - 1 3 6 p r o p o r t i o n e x c l u s i v e t o i l e t 14 1 5 1 3 7 - 1 4 6 p r o p o r t i o n e x c l u s i v e b a t h 1 5 16 1 4 7 - 1 5 6 a v e r a g e number r o o m s 1 6 1 7 1 5 7 - 1 6 6 a v e r a g e number b e d r o o m s 1 7 18 1 6 7 - 1 7 6 p r o p o r t i o n w i t h g a r a g e 18 19 1 7 7 - 1 8 6 a v e r a g e m o n t h l y r e n t 19 20 1 8 7 - 1 9 6 a v e r a g e a n n u a l h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e 20 21 1 9 7 - 2 0 6 t o t a l number o f d w e l l i n g s 21 22 2 0 7 - 2 1 6 p r o p o r t i o n s t o v e i n r e n t 22 23 2 1 7 - 2 2 6 p r o p o r t i o n f u r n i t u r e i n r e n t 23 24 2 2 7 - 2 3 6 p r o p o r t i o n g a r a g e i n r e n t 24 25 2 4 7 - 2 5 6 a v e r a g e p r i c e ( d i v i d e d by 1000) 25 26 2 4 7 - 2 5 6 a c c e s s v a r i a b l e ( s e e n o t e 2 : ) n o t e 1: t h i s d a t a i s d r a w n f r o m t h e 1961 C e n s u s summary t a p e s ; H o u s i n g - s h o r t f o r m F a m i l y - s h o r t f o r m . n o t e 2 : t h i s a c c e s s v a r i a b l e v a l u e i s t h e c a l c u l a t e d d i s t a n c e f r o m t h e CBD f o r t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g c e n s u s t r a c t . See t h e n o t e t o C M A 6 1 . I N P U T f o r a d e s c r i p t i o n o f i t s d e r i v a t i o n . 180 C M A 6 1 . I N P U T F I L E : 1961 CENSUS TRACT DATA V a r i a b l e F i e l d F i e l d Name Number Number 0 1 - 10 c e n s u s t r a c t i d e n t i f i c a t i o n 1 2 1 1 - 20 t o t a l d w e l l i n g s 2 3 21 - 30 t o t a l s i n g l e d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s 3 4 31 - 40 t o t a l o w n e r - o c c u p i e d d w e l l i n g s 4 5 41 - 50 t o t a l r e n t e d d w e l l i n g s 5 6 51 - 60 n o . d w e l l i n g s p r e - 1 9 2 0 6 7 61 - 70 n o . d w e l l i n g s 1 9 2 0 - 4 5 7 8 71 - 80 n o . d w e l l i n g s 1 9 4 6 - 5 9 8 9 81 - 90 n o . d w e l l i n g s 1960 9 10 91 - 1 0 0 n o . d w e l l i n g s 1961 1 0 1 1 101 -1 10 n o . d w e l l i n g s i n g o o d c o n d i t i o n 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 -1 20 n o . d w e l l i n g s m i n o r r e p a i r s 12 1 3 121 -1 30 n o . d w e l l i n g s m a j o r r e p a i r s 1 3 1 4 131 -1 40 n o . d w e l l i n g s f u r n a c e h e a t e d 1 4 1 5 141 -1 50 n o . d w e l l i n g s e x c l u s i v e t o i l e t 15 16 151 -1 60 n o . d w e l l i n g s e x c l u s i v e b a t h 1 6 1 7 161 -1 70 t o t a l n o . rooms i n C . T . 17 18 171 - 1 8 0 t o t a l n o . b e d r o o m s i n C . T . 18 19 181 - 1 9 0 t o t a l owned s i n g l e d e t a c h e d d i s t r i b u t i o n o f p r i c e s 19 20 191 - 2 0 0 u n i t s : <3000 20 21 201 - 2 1 0 u n i t s : 3 0 0 0 - 7999 21 22 21 1 - 2 2 0 u n i t s : 8 0 0 0 - 1 2 9 9 9 22 23 221 - 2 3 0 u n i t s : 1 3 0 0 0 - 1 7 9 9 9 23 24 231 - 2 4 0 u n i t s : 1 8 0 0 0 - 2 2 9 9 9 24 25 241 - 2 5 0 u n i t s : 2 3 0 0 0 - 2 7 9 9 9 25 26 251 - 2 6 0 u n i t s : 2 8 0 0 0 - 3 2 9 9 9 26 27 261 - 2 7 0 u n i t s : 3 3 0 0 0 - 3 7 9 9 9 27 28 271 - 2 8 0 u n i t s : 3 8 0 0 0 + 28 29 281 - 2 9 0 n o . d w e l l i n g s w i t h g a r a g e 29 30 291 - 3 0 0 n o . d w e l l i n g s f r i d g e i n r e n t 30 31 301 - 3 1 0 n o . d w e l l i n g s s t o v e i n r e n t 31 32 31 1 - 3 2 0 n o . d w e l l i n g s f u r n i t u r e i n r e n t 32 33 321 - 3 3 0 n o . d w e l l i n g s g a r a g e i n r e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e n t s 33 34 331 - 3 4 0 u n i t s : no r e n t 34 35 341 - 3 5 0 u n i t s : 0 - 2 9 35 36 351 - 3 6 0 u n i t s : 3 0 - 3 9 36 37 361 - 3 7 0 u n i t s : 4 0 - 4 9 37 38 371 - 3 8 0 u n i t s : 5 0 - 5 9 38 39 381 - 3 9 0 u n i t s : 6 0 - 6 9 39 40 391 - 4 0 0 u n i t s : 7 0 - 7 9 181 C M A 6 1 . I N P U T ( C o n t i n u e d ) V a r i a b l e F i e l d F i e l d Name Number Number 40 41 401 - 4 1 0 u n i t s : 8 0 - 89 41 42 41 1 - 4 2 0 u n i t s : 9 0 - 99 42 43 421 - 4 3 0 u n i t s : 1 0 0 - 1 0 9 43 44 - 431 - 4 4 0 . u n i t s : 1 1 0 - 1 1 9 44 45 441 - 4 5 0 u n i t s : 1 2 0 - 1 2 9 45 46 451 - 4 6 0 u n i t s : 1 3 0 - 1 4 9 46 47 461 - 4 7 0 u n i t s : 1 5 0 - 1 7 4 47 48 471 - 4 8 0 u n i t s : 1 7 5 + 48 49 481 - 4 9 0 t o t a l r e n t p a i d 49 50 491 - 5 0 0 t o t a l n o . o f f a m i l i e s 50 51 501 - 5 1 0 t o t a l f a m i l y e a r n i n g s 51 52 51 1 - 5 2 0 p r o p o r t i o n s i n g l e d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n 52 53 521 - 5 3 0 p r o p o r t i o n o w n e r - o c c u p i e d d w e l l i n g 53 54 531 - 5 4 0 p r o p o r t i o n r e n t a l d w e l l i n g s 54 55 541 - 5 5 0 a g e : p r o p o r t i o n p r e 20 55 56 551 - 5 6 0 p r o p o r t i o n 1 9 2 0 - 1 9 4 5 56 57 561 - 5 7 0 p r o p o r t i o n 1 9 4 6 - 1 9 5 9 57 . 58 571 - 5 8 0 p r o p o r t i o n 1960 58 59 581 - 5 9 0 p r o p o r t i o n 1961 59 60 591 - 6 0 0 p r o p o r t i o n i n g o o d c o n d i t i o n 60 61 601 - 6 1 0 p r o p o r t i o n n e e d m i n o r r e p a i r 61 62 61 1 - 6 2 0 p r o p o r t i o n n e e d m a j o r r e p a i r 62 63 621 - 6 3 0 p r o p o r t i o n f u r n a c e h e a t 63 64 631 - 6 4 0 p r o p o r t i o n e x c l u s i v e t o i l e t 64 65 641 - 6 5 0 p r o p o r t i o n e x c l u s i v e b a t h 65 66 651 - 6 6 0 a v e r a g e number r o o m s 66 67 661 - 6 7 0 a v e r a g e number b e d r o o m s 67 68 671 - 6 8 0 p r o p o r t i o n w i t h g a r a g e 68 69 681 - 6 9 0 a v e r a g e m o n t h l y r e n t 69 70 691 - 7 0 0 a v e r a g e a n n u a l h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e 70 71 701 - 7 1 0 t o t a l number o f d w e l l i n g s 71 72 71 1 - 7 2 0 p r o p o r t i o n s t o v e i n r e n t 72 73 721 - 7 3 0 p r o p o r t i o n f u r n i t u r e i n r e n t 73 74 731 - 7 4 0 p r o p o r t i o n g a r a g e i n r e n t 74 75 741 - 7 5 0 a v e r a g e p r i c e ( d i v i d e d by 1000) 75 76 751 - 7 6 0 a c c e s s v a r i a b l e ( s e e n o t e 2 : ) n o t e : 1. t h i s d a t a i s o b t a i n e d by a g g r e g a t i n g e n u m e r a t i o n a r e a d a t a d r a w n a s f o r C M A 6 1 . E A . n o t e : 2 . t h e a c c e s s v a r i a b l e " 7 5 " i s c a l c u l a t e d a s t h e c o m m u t e r d i s t a n c e f r o m t h e CBD I t i s an i n d e x v a l u e o b t a i n e d by m e a s u r i n g t h e mos t d i r e c t r o u t e , ( r o a d , r a i l , f e r r y ) t o t h e c i t y c e n t r e . 182 C M A 7 1 . I N P U T F I L E : 1971 CENSUS T R A C T DATA V a r i a b l e F i e l d F i e l d Name Number Number 0 1 - 10 c e n s u s t r a c t i d e n t i f i c a t i o n 1 2 1 1 - 20 p r o p o r t i o n h o u s e h o l d s t y p e 1 2 3 21 - 30 p r o p o r t i o n h o u s e h o l d s t y p e 2 3 4 31 - 40 p r o p o r t i o n h o u s e h o l d s t y p e 3 4 5 41 - 50 p r o p o r t i o n h o u s e h o l d s t y p e 4 5 6 51 - 60 p r o p o r t i o n h o u s e h o l d s t y p e 5 6 7 61 - 70 p r o p o r t i o n h o u s e h o l d s t y p e 6 7 8 71 - 80 p r o p o r t i o n h o u s e h o l d s t y p e 7 8 9 81 - 90 p r o p o r t i o n h o u s e h o l d s t y p e 8 9 10 91 -1 00 a n n u a l i n c o m e - h o u s e h o l d h e a d 10 1 1 101 -1 10 a n n u a l i n c o m e - h o u s e h o l d 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 - 1 2 0 t o t a l d w e l l i n g s 1 2 1 3 121 -1 30 t o t a l owned d w e l l i n g s 13 1 4 131 -1 40 t o t a l r e n t e d d w e l l i n g s 1 4 1 5 141 -1 50 a v e r a g e v a l u e ( n o t e : 2 . ) 15 16 151 -1 60 a v e r a g e r e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n o f c o n s t r u c t i o n 1 6 17 161 -1 70 owned p r e - 1 9 4 6 1 7 18 171 - 1 8 0 owned 1 9 4 6 - 5 0 18 19 181 -1 90 owned 1 9 5 1 - 6 0 19 20 191 - 2 0 0 owned 1 9 6 1 - 6 5 20 21 201 - 2 1 0 owned 1 9 6 6 - 7 0 21 22 21 1 - 2 2 0 owned 1971 22 23 221 - 2 3 0 r e n t e d p r e - 1 9 4 6 23 24 231 - 2 4 0 r e n t e d 1 9 4 6 - 5 0 24 25 241 - 2 5 0 r e n t e d 1 9 5 1 - 6 0 25 26 251 - 2 6 0 r e n t e d 1 9 6 1 - 6 5 26 27 261 - 2 7 0 r e n t e d 1 9 6 6 - 7 0 27 28 271 - 2 8 0 r e n t e d 1971 28 29 281 - 2 9 0 t o t a l p r e - 1 9 4 6 29 30 291 - 3 0 0 t o t a l 1 9 4 6 - 5 0 30 31 301 - 3 1 0 t o t a l 1 9 5 1 - 6 0 31 32 31 1 - 3 2 0 t o t a l 1 9 6 1 - 6 5 32 33 321 - 3 3 0 t o t a l 1 9 6 6 - 7 0 33 34 331 - 3 4 0 t o t a l 1971 34 35 341 - 3 5 0 a v e r a g e n o . rooms - owned 35 36 351 - 3 6 0 a v e r a g e n o . rooms - r e n t e d 36 37 361 - 3 7 0 p r o p o r t i o n w i t h b a t h - owned 37 38 371 - 3 8 0 p r o p o r t i o n w i t h b a t h - r e n t e d 38 39 381 - 3 9 0 p r o p o r t i o n a p a r t m e n t s 39 40 391 - 4 0 0 b l a n k 183 C M A 7 1 . I N P U T ( C o n t i n u e d ) V a r i a b l e F i e l d F i e l d Name Number Number d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e n t s 40 41 4 0 1 - 4 1 0 u n i t s : no r e n t 41 42 41 1-420 u n i t s : <30 m o n t h l y 42 43 4 2 1 - 4 3 0 u n i t s : 3 0 - 39 43 44 4 3 1 - 4 4 0 u n i t s : 4 0 - 59 44 45 4 4 1 - 4 5 0 u n i t s : 6 0 - 79 45 46 4 5 1 - 4 6 0 u n i t s : 8 0 - 99 46 47 4 6 1 - 4 7 0 u n i t s : 1 0 0 - 1 1 9 47 48 4 7 1 - 4 8 0 u n i t s : 1 2 0 - 1 3 9 48 49 4 8 1 - 4 9 0 u n i t s : 1 4 0 - 1 5 9 49 50 4 9 1 - 5 0 0 u n i t s : 1 6 0 - 1 7 9 50 51 5 0 1 - 5 1 0 u n i t s : 1 8 0 - 1 9 9 51 52 5 1 1 - 5 2 0 u n i t s : 2 0 0 - 2 4 9 52 53 5 2 1 - 5 3 0 u n i t s : 2 5 0 - 2 9 9 53 54 5 3 1 - 5 4 0 u n i t s : 3 0 0 - 3 4 9 54 55 5 4 1 - 5 5 0 u n i t s : 3 5 0 + d i s t r i b u t i o n o f p r i c e s 55 56 5 5 1 - 5 6 0 u n i t s : <3000 56 57 5 6 1 - 5 7 0 u n i t s : 3 0 0 0 - 7499 57 58 5 7 1 - 5 8 0 u n i t s : 7 5 0 0 - 1 2 4 9 9 58 59 5 8 1 - 5 9 0 u n i t s : 1 2 5 0 0 - 1 7 4 9 9 59 60 5 9 1 - 6 0 0 u n i t s : 1 7 5 0 0 - 2 2 4 9 9 60 61 6 0 1 - 6 1 0 u n i t s : 2 5 5 0 0 - 2 7 4 9 9 61 62 6 1 1 - 6 2 0 u n i t s : 2 7 5 0 0 - 3 2 4 9 9 62 63 6 2 1 - 6 3 0 u n i t s : 3 2 5 0 0 - 3 7 4 9 9 63 64 6 3 1 - 6 4 0 u n i t s : 3 7 5 0 0 - 4 2 4 9 9 64 65 6 4 1 - 6 5 0 u n i t s : 4 2 5 0 0 - 5 2 4 9 9 65 66 6 5 1 - 6 6 0 u n i t s : 5 2 5 0 0 - 6 2 4 9 9 66 67 6 6 1 - 6 7 0 u n i t s : 6 2 5 0 0 + 67 68 6 7 1 - 6 8 0 b l a n k 68 69 6 8 1 - 6 9 0 b l a n k 69 70 6 9 1 - 7 0 0 b l a n k 70 71 7 0 1 - 7 1 0 a c c e s s v a r i a b l e 184 C M A 7 1 . I N P U T ( C o n t i n u e d ) V a r i a b l e F i e l d F i e l d Name Number Number d i s t r i b u t i o n o f v a l u e s d w e l l i n g b u i l t 1960 o r b e f o r e 71 72 71 1-720 t o t a l a l l u n i t s 72 73 7 2 1 - 7 3 0 u n i t s : <3000 73 74 7 3 1 - 7 4 0 u n i t s : 3 0 0 0 - 7499 74 75 7 4 1 - 7 5 0 u n i t s : 7 5 0 0 - 1 2 4 9 9 75 76 7 5 1 - 7 6 0 u n i t s : 1 2 5 0 0 - 1 7 4 9 9 76 77 7 6 1 - 7 7 0 u n i t s : 1 7 5 0 0 - 2 2 4 9 9 77 78 7 7 1 - 7 8 0 u n i t s : 2 5 5 0 0 - 2 7 4 9 9 78 79 7 8 1 - 7 9 0 u n i t s : 2 7 5 0 0 - 3 2 4 9 9 79 80 7 9 1 - 8 0 0 u n i t s : 3 2 5 0 0 - 3 7 4 9 9 80 81 8 0 1 - 8 1 0 u n i t s : 3 7 5 0 0 - 4 2 4 9 9 81 82 81 1-820 u n i t s : 4 2 5 0 0 - 5 2 4 9 9 82 83 8 2 1 - 8 3 0 u n i t s : 5 2 5 0 0 - 6 2 4 9 9 83 84 8 3 1 - 8 4 0 u n i t s : 6 2 5 0 0 + 84 85 8 4 1 - 8 5 0 mean v a l u e " o l d " ( n o t e : 2 . ) d i s t r i b u t i o n o f v a l u e s d w e l l i n g b u i l t 1961 o r a f t e r 85 86 8 5 1 - 8 6 0 t o t a l a l l u n i t s 86 87 8 6 1 - 8 7 0 u n i t s : <3000 87 88 8 7 1 - 8 8 0 u n i t s : 3 0 0 0 - 7499 88 89 8 8 1 - 8 9 0 u n i t s : 7 5 0 0 - 1 2 4 9 9 89 90 8 9 1 - 9 0 0 u n i t s : 1 2 5 0 0 - 1 7 4 9 9 90 91 9 0 1 - 9 1 0 u n i t s : 1 7 5 0 0 - 2 2 4 9 9 91 92 9 1 1 - 9 2 0 u n i t s : 2 5 5 0 0 - 2 7 4 9 9 92 93 9 2 1 - 9 3 0 u n i t s : 2 7 5 0 0 - 3 2 4 9 9 93 94 9 3 1 - 9 4 0 u n i t s : 3 2 5 0 0 - 3 7 4 9 9 94 95 9 4 1 - 9 5 0 u n i t s : 3 7 5 0 0 - 4 2 4 9 9 95 96 9 5 1 - 9 6 0 u n i t s : 4 2 5 0 0 - 5 2 4 9 9 96 97 9 6 1 - 9 7 0 u n i t s : 5 2 5 0 0 - 6 2 4 9 9 97 98 9 7 1 - 9 8 0 u n i t s : 6 2 5 0 0 + 98 99 9 8 1 - 9 9 0 mean v a l u e "new" ( n o t e : 2 . ) n o t e : 1. t h i s d a t a i s d r a w n f r o m t h e f o l l o w i n g 1971 C e n s u s summary t a p e s ; c e n s u s t r a c t a g g r e g a t i o n s e r i e s : F a m i l y - s h o r t f o r m H o u s e h o l d - s h o r t f o r m H o u s i n g - s h o r t f o r m H o u s i n g - l o n g f o r m n o t e : 2. t h e s e v a r i a b l e e a r e c a l c u l a t e d a s t h e mean o f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f p r i c e s a s s u m i n g a mean v a l u e f o r <3,000 o f $2,000 a n d $70,000 f o r 62,500+. 185 C M A 7 1 . D I S . V : 1971 CENSUS DATA on V A L U E D I S T R I B U T I O N S V a r i a b l e F i e l d F i e l d Name Number Number 0 1 1- 10 CMA c o d e 0 2 1 1- 20 c e n s u s t r a c t number d i s t r i b u t i o n o f v a l u e s d w e l l i n g b u i l t 1960 o r b e f o r e 1 3 2 1 - 30 t o t a l a l l u n i t s 2 4 3 1 - 40 u n i t s : <3000 3 5 4 1 - 50 u n i t s : 3 0 0 0 - 7 4 9 9 4 6 5 1 - 60 u n i t s : 7 5 0 0 - 1 2 4 9 9 5 7 6 1 - 70 u n i t s : 1 2 5 0 0 - 1 7 4 9 9 6 8 7 1 - 80 u n i t s : 1 7 5 0 0 - 2 2 4 9 9 7 9 8 1 - 90 u n i t s : 2 5 5 0 0 - 2 7 4 9 9 8 10 9 1 - 1 0 0 u n i t s : 2 7 5 0 0 - 3 2 4 9 9 9 1 1 1 0 1 - 1 1 0 u n i t s : 3 2 5 0 0 - 3 7 4 9 9 10 1 2 1 1 1 - 1 2 0 u n i t s : 3 7 5 0 0 - 4 2 4 9 9 1 1 1 3 1 2 1 - 1 3 0 u n i t s : 4 2 5 0 0 - 5 2 4 9 9 12 1 4 1 3 1 - 1 4 0 u n i t s : 5 2 5 0 0 - 6 2 4 9 9 13 1 5 1 4 1 - 1 5 0 u n i t s : 6 2 5 0 0 + d i s t r i b u t i o n o f v a l u e s d w e l l i n g b u i l t 1961 o r a f t e r 1 4 16 1 5 1 - 1 6 0 t o t a l a l l u n i t s 15 1 7 1 6 1 - 1 7 0 u n i t s : <3000 1 6 18 1 7 1 - 1 8 0 u n i t s : 3 0 0 0 - 7499 1 7 19 1 8 1 - 1 9 0 u n i t s : 7 5 0 0 - 1 2 4 9 9 18 20 1 9 1 - 2 0 0 ' u n i t s : 1 2 5 0 0 - 1 7 4 9 9 19 21 2 0 1 - 2 1 0 u n i t s : 1 7 5 0 0 - 2 2 4 9 9 20 22 2 1 1 - 2 2 0 u n i t s : 2 5 5 0 0 - 2 7 4 9 9 21 23 2 2 1 - 2 3 0 u n i t s : 2 7 5 0 0 - 3 2 4 9 9 22 24 2 3 1 - 2 4 0 u n i t s : 3 2 5 0 0 - 3 7 4 9 9 23 25 2 4 1 - 2 5 0 u n i t s : 3 7 5 0 0 - 4 2 4 9 9 24 26 2 5 1 - 2 6 0 u n i t s : 4 2 5 0 0 - 5 2 4 9 9 25 27 2 6 1 - 2 7 0 u n i t s : 5 2 5 0 0 - 6 2 4 9 9 26 28 2 7 1 - 2 8 0 u n i t s : 6 2 5 0 0 + n o t e : 1. t h i s d a t a i s d r a w n f r o m a s p e c i a l c r o s s - t a b f i l e c r e a t e d by S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a . 186 C M A . S H U : 1974 SURVEY o f HOUSING U N I T S V a r i a b l e Number F i e l d Number F i e l d Name 1 1 1 - 3 s u r v e y a r e a 00 2 2 4 - 10 h o u s e h o l d w e i g h t 01 3 3 1 1 - 1 2 t y p e o f d w e l l i n g 01 4 4 1 3 - 1 4 y e a r d w e l l i n g c o n s t r u c t e d 02 5 5 1 5 - 1 6 r u n n i n g w a t e r 02 6 6 1 7 - 18 i n s t a l l e d b a t h o r s h o w e r 02 7 7 1 9 - 20 t o i l e t f a c i l i t i e s 02 8 8 2 1 - 22 s u b s i d i z a t i o n 02 9 9 2 3 - 24 t e n u r e 02 10 10 2 5 - 32 e x p e c t e d s e l l i n g p r i c e 03 1 1 1 1 3 3 - 36 number o f u n i t s 03 1 2 1 2 3 7 - 38 w a t e r i n c l u d e d i n r e n t 04 13 1 3 3 9 - 40 e l e c t r i c i t y i n c l u d e d i n r e n t 04 1 4 1 4 4 1 - 42 g a s i n c l u d e d i n r e n t 04 1 5 1 5 4 3 - 44 o i l i n c l u d e d i n r e n t 04 1 6 16 4 5 - 46 p a r k i n g i n c l u d e d i n r e n t 04 1 7 17 4 7 - 49 number o f l i v i n g rooms 06 18 18 5 0 - 52 number o f w o r k rooms 07 19 1 9 5 3 - 55 number o f b e d r o o m s 07 20 20 5 6 - 62 h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e 08 21 21 6 3 - 65 h o u s e h o l d s i z e 08 22 22 6 6 - 70 m o n t h l y r e n t p a y m e n t 08 23 23 7 1 - 72 e x t e r i o r c o n d i t i o n 09 24 24 7 3 - 75 number o f c h i l d r e n 09 25 25 7 6 - 78 a g e o f h e a d 09 26 26 7 9 - 80 m a r i t a l s t a t u s o f h e a d 09 27 27 8 1 - 87 i n c o m e o f h e a d 10 28 28 8 8 - 94 i n c o m e o f s p o u s e 10 29 29 9 5 - 97 d i s t a n c e t o w o r k 1 1 30 30 9 8 - 1 02 d a t e 1 s t m o s t r e c e n t move 1 1 31 31 1 0 3 - 1 06 1 9 7 1 : a g e o f h e a d 20 32 32 1 0 7 - 108 1 9 7 1 : m a r i t a l s t a t u s 20 33 33 1 0 9 - 1 1 6 1 9 7 1 : i n c o m e o f h e a d 20 34 34 1 1 7 -1 18 1 9 7 1 : n o . y e a r s i n d w e l l i n g 20 35 35 1 1 9 - 121 1 9 7 1 : h o u s e h o l d s i z e 21 36 36 1 2 2 - 1 29 1 9 7 1 : h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e . 21 37 37 1 3 0 - 1 32 1 9 7 1 : n o . o f c h i l d r e n 21 38 38 1 3 3 - 1 34 1 9 7 1 : t y p e o f d w e l l i n g 21 39 39 1 3 5 - 1 37 1 9 7 1 : n o . o f u n i t s 22 40 40 1 3 8 - 1 39 1 9 7 1 : p e r i o d o f c o n s t r u c t i o n 22 187 C M A . S H U ( C o n t i n u e d ) V a r i a b l e Number F i e l d Number F i e l d Name 41 41 1 4 0 - 1 42 1 971 : n o . o f rooms 22 42 42 1 4 3 - 1 44 1971 : n o . o f b e d r o o m s 22 43 43 1 4 5 - 1 46 1971 : f l u s h t o i l e t i n b u i l d i n g 22 44 44 1 4 7 - 1 48 1971 : b a s i c f a c i l i t i e s p r e s e n t 22 45 45 1 4 9 - 150 1971 : t e n u r e 22 46 46 1 5 1 - 1 52 1971 : r e a s o n f o r r e d u c e d r e n t 22 47 47 1 5 3 - 1 56 1971 : m o n t h l y c a s h r e n t 23 48 48 1 5 7 - 161 1971 : p a y m e n t f o r u t i l i t i e s 23 49 49 1 6 2 - 1 63 1971 : f u r n i t u r e i n r e n t 23 50 50 1 6 4 - 165 1 971 : a i r - c o n d . i n r e n t 23 51 51 1 6 6 - 1 67 1971 : r e f r i g e r a t o r i n r e n t 23 52 52 1 6 8 - 169 1971 : s t o v e i n r e n t 23 53 53 1 6 9 - 1 70 1971 : e x p e c t e d s e l l i n g p r i c e 24 C M A 7 1 . T A B : 1 9 6 1 - 7 1 CENSUS TRACT C R O S S - T A B T h i s f i l e c o n t a i n s one o r more d a t a r e c o r d s f o r e a c h 1971 C e n s u s t r a c t . I t i s m a n u a l l y c r e a t e d f r o m c e n s u s t r a c t maps a n d p u b l i s h e d c e n s u s d a t a t o a l l o w t h e c r o s s - t a b u l a t i o n o f 1961 a n d 1971 c e n s u s t r a c t s . D e l i n e a t i o n o f z o n e s i s b a s e d on 1961 c e n s u s t r a c t s a n d t h i s f i l e i s u s e d t o a l l o c a t e d t h e 1971 t r a c t s t o t h e r e s p e c t i v e z o n e s . When a 1971 t r a c t c o m p r i s e s more t h a n one 1961 t r a c t , o r p a r t s t h e r e o f , m u l t i p l e r e c o r d s a r e c r e a t e d . The s t r u c t u r e o f t h e r e c o r d s i s : V a r i a b l e F i e l d F i e l d Name Number Number 0 1 1-4 1 9 7 1 : c e n s u s t r a c t number 0 2 5 -8 1 9 6 1 : c e n s u s t r a c t number 1 3 9 - 5 p r o p o r t i o n o f 1961 t r a c t c o n t a i n e d i n 1971 t r a c t . 188 A 1 . 1 2 G e n e r a t e d D a t a F i l e s I n t h e p r o c e s s o f i m p l e m e n t i n g t h e MODEL f o r a c i t y , s e v e r a l a d d i t i o n a l d a t a f i l e s a r e c r e a t e d b y t h e u t i l i t y p r o g r a m s . Two a r e c r e a t e d t o i n d i c a t e t h e z o n a l a l l o c a t i o n o f t h e 1961 a n d 1971 C e n s u s t r a c t s , r e s p e c t i v e l y . T h e y a r e t h e f i l e s C M A 6 1 . Z N a n d C M A 7 1 . Z N . T h r e e a l t e r n a t i v e f i l e s a r e c r e a t e d f o r i n p u t t o t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m p r o g r a m , " S I M O 1 . F O R T " . The a l t e r n a t i v e s c o r r e s p o n d t o d i f f e r e n t s o l u t i o n modes o f t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m . 1. C M A . G 5 B : i n p u t f o r c a l i b r a t i n g t h e GAMMA p a r a m e t e r s 2 . C M A . B 5 B : i n p u t f o r c a l i b r a t i n g t h e BETA p a r a m e t e r s 3 . C M A . P 5 B : o u t p u t f r o m B A S E mode r u n s f o r P O L I C Y mode r u n s n o t e : t h e number " 5 " i s e m p l o y e d t o d e n o t e t h e number o f z o n e s . The s t r u c t u r e o f t h e s e f i l e s i s o u t l i n e d i n t h e d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m , " S I M O 1 . F O R T " . C M A 6 1 . Z N : 1961 Z o n a l A l l o c a t i o n F i l e T h i s f i l e i s c r e a t e d by t h e p r o g r a m " Z O N E . F O R T " f r o m t h e o u t p u t o f a c l u s t e r i n g p r o g r a m . " Z O N E . F O R T " i s s t r u c t u r e d t o a l t e r n a t i v e l y r e c e i v e C M A 6 1 . Z N a s i n p u t , a l l o w i n g t h e e x o g e n o u s s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f t h e z o n a l a l l o c a t i o n s . The c r e a t e d v e r s i o n o f t h e f i l e h a s t w o d a t a f i e l d s ; a m a n u a l l y c r e a t e d i n p u t f i l e may u s e t h r e e . The f i r s t r e c o r d o f t h i s f i l e m u s t h a v e t h e f o l l o w i n g d a t a f i e l d s ; " 6 1 " i n c o l u m n s 3 - 4 a n d t h e number o f z o n e s , e x c l u d i n g t h e z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n , i n c o l u m n s 6 - 7 . The s t r u c t u r e o f t h e r e m a i n i n g r e c o r d s i s : 189 V a r i a b l e F i e l d F i e l d Name Number Number 1 1 1-2 z o n e number 2 2 3 - 6 c e n s u s t r a c t number 3 3 7 - 9 • c e n s u s t r a c t number ( n o t e : 1.) n o t e : 1. when m a n u a l l y c r e a t i n g C M A 6 1 . Z N , a s e c o n d c e n s u s t r a c t n u m b e r , r i g h t j u s t i f i e d i n c o l u m s 7 - 9 , w i l l a c t a s a r a n g e d e l i m i t o r . e . g . . 0 1 1 0 0 1 1 0 , i n d i c a t e s t h a t c e n s u s t r a c t s 100 t o 110 a r e i n ZONE 1. C M A 7 1 . Z N : 1971 Z o n a l A l l o c a t i o n F i l e T h i s f i l e i s c r e a t e d by t h e p r o g r a m " Z O N E . F O R T " a n d c o n t a i n s d a t a on t h e z o n a l a l l o c a t i o n o f e a c h 1971 c e n s u s t r a c t a l o n g w i t h t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g 1961 t r a c t . The f i r s t r e c o r d o f t h e f i l e i s a c o n t r o l a n d t i t l e r e c o r d . A s w i t h C M A 6 1 . Z N , t h i s r e c o r d m u s t c o n t a i n " 7 1 " i n c o l u m n s 3 - 4 a n d t h e number o f z o n e s i n c o l u m n s 6 - 7 . The s t r u c t u r e o f t h e r e m a i n i n g r e c o r d s i s : V a r i a b l e F i e l d F i e l d Name Number Number 1 1 1-2 z o n e number 2 2 3 - 6 1971 c e n s u s t r a c t number 3 3 7 - 9 c o r r e s p o n d i n g 1961 c e n s u s number - 0 i f a n n e x e d 190 A 1 . 2 A N A L Y T I C A L C A L C U L A T I O N S 1.21 D i s t r i b u t i o n o f New C o n s t r u c t i o n C o s t s The p r i c e p e r u n i t o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s f r o m new d w e l l i n g s mus t be m e a s u r e d r e l a t i v e t o t h e same b a s e a s o t h e r p r i c e s i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o t h e m o d e l d u r i n g a p a r t i c u l a r s i m u l a t i o n r u n . W i t h t h e C a n a d i a n m o d e l s a l l s i m u l a t i o n s u t i l i z e 1961 a s t h e b a s e y e a r a n d t h u s new c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s d u r i n g t h e d e c a d e mus t be c a l c u l a t e d t o r e f l e c t c o s t c h a n g e s o v e r t h e d e c a d e . W h i l e a l l o t h e r p r i c e s a r e e n d o g e n o u s l y d e t e r m i n e d , c o n s t r u c t i o n p r i c e s / c o s t s a r e e x o g e n o u s l y d e t e r m i n e d u n d e r a n a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e y a r e d e r i v e d i n d e p e n d e n t o f h o u s i n g m a r k e t f o r c e s . A s a r e s u l t new c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s become an i m p o r t a n t m o d e l p a r a m e t e r a n d m u s t be c a r e f u l l y s p e c i f i e d . F o r c o n v e n i e n c e , t h e m o d e l ' s b a s e p r i c e i s s e t t o u n i t y , w i t h r e g a r d t o e x i s t i n g " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s i n 1961 a n d t h u s v a l u e s f o r PN w i l l be i n t h e r a n g e 1 .00 t o 2 . 0 0 , i n d i c a t i n g i n d e x e d i n c r e a s e s i n c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s o v e r t h e d e c a d e . W i t h t h e O R I G I N A L MODEL s p e c i f i c a t i o n , w h e r e PN=PC+PO, a c o n f l i c t a r i s e s i n t h e u s e o f PN a n d t h e two c o m p o n e n t s . S i n c e PN i s t h e d r i v i n g f o r c e b e h i n d p r i c e i n f l a t i o n w i t h t h i s s p e c i f i c a t i o n , i t s v a l u e mus t a p p r o x i m a t e t h e d e c a d e - e n d v a l u e s o t h a t t h e MODEL g e n e r a t e s t h e a p p r o p r i a t e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f p r i c e s f o r t h e e x i s t i n g " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s w i t h PN a s t h e " c e i l i n g " . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e p r o f i t f u n c t i o n s p e c i f i c a t i o n a s s u m e s t h a t PC a n d PO a r e a p p r o p r i a t e c o s t s o v e r t h e d e c a d e a n d a s s u c h s h o u l d be d e r i v e d a s a n a v e r a g e o f p r i c e s t h r o u g h o u t t h e d e c a d e . The U . I . u s e s an a v e r a g e d e c a d e v a l u e f o r a l l t h r e e v a r i a b l e s , t h a t g i v e s a s l i g h t a d d i t i o n a l w e i g h t t o t h e f i n a l t w o y e a r s o f t h e 191 d e c a d e (de Leeuw a n d S t r u y k ( 1 9 7 5 , p 7 2 ) ) , p r e s u m a b l y t o e f f e c t a c o m p r o m i s e . One c a n a l t e r n a t i v e l y a s s u m e t h a t P N , PC a n d PO c o r r e s p o n d t o c o s t s i n t h e l a s t o p e r a t i n g m o n t h o f t h e p e r i o d u n d e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n a n d t h u s may be c a l c u l a t e d a s t h e p e r i o d - e n d v a l u e . A c o m b i n a t i o n o f t h e t w o a l t e r n a t i v e s h a s PN s e t i n d e p e n d e n t o f PC a n d P O , a l l o w i n g PC a n d PO t o be e s t i m a t e d a s t h e d e c a d e a v e r a g e w h i l e PN i s s e t t o c o r r e s p o n d t o a p e r i o d - e n d v a l u e . The m e t h o d u s e d h e r e t o c a l c u l a t e P O , PC a n d PN f o l l o w s t h e U l a p p r o a c h d i r e c t l y . A l l " m o d e l " p r i c e s a n d c o s t s m u s t be d e r i v e d r e l a t i v e t o t h e p r i c e p e r u n i t o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s o f f e r e d by e x i s t i n g " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s a t t h e d e c a d e - s t a r t . F o r m o d e l c a l i b r a t i o n , one mus t a s sume t h a t t h e p r i c e p e r u n i t o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s f o r b o t h e x i s t i n g a n d new u n i t s i s u n i t y i n 1 9 6 1 ; t h a t i s , t h e m a r k e t was i n e q u i l i b r i u m , a n d t h e n c a l c u l a t e PN a s a r e l a t i v e p r i c e . T h e s e r e l a t i v e p r i c e s a r e o b t a i n e d by e s t i m a t i n g t h e r e p e c t i v e r e l a t i v e c h a n g e s i n o p e r a t i n g c o s t s , P O , a n d c a p i t a l c o s t s , P C , a n d t h e n w e i g h t i n g t h e two c o m p o n e n t s t o o b t a i n t h e t o t a l c o s t , P N . D a t a on t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f o p e r a t i n g c o s t s h a s b e e n d e r i v e d f r o m t h e 1969 S u r v e y o f F a m i l y E x p e n d i t u r e ; c a p i t a l c o s t s d i s t r i b u t i o n d a t a f r o m C a n a d i a n H o u s i n g S t a t i s t i c s . W h i l e d i s t r i b u t i o n s o f t h e c a p i t a l c o s t c o m p o n e n t s a r e r e a d i l y a v a i l a b l e f o r a l l y e a r s o f t h e d e c a d e , e q u i v a l e n t o p e r a t i n g c o s t d a t a i s o n l y a v a i l a b l e f o r 1 9 6 9 . T h i s d a t a i s u s e d t o o b t a i n r e l a t i v e c o m p o n e n t c o s t s t o be i n d i v i d u a l l y i n f l a t e d / d e f l a t e d u t i l i z i n g a v a i l a b l e p r i c e i n d i c e s . The 1969 S u r v e y o f H o u s i n g E x p e n d i t u r e l i s t s f o u r m a j o r e x p e n d i t u r e i t e m s t h a t may be c l a s s i f i e d a s o p e r a t i n g c o s t s . A p r o b l e m a r i s e s w i t h t h e u s e o f t h i s d a t a i n a s m u c h a s t h e r e p o r t e d a v e r a g e e x p e n d i t u r e u n d e r e s t i m a t e s t h e t r u e a v e r a g e a s many 1 92 h o u s e h o l d s make i m p l i c i t e x p e n d i t u r e s b u t do n o t r e p o r t t h e m . F o r e x a m p l e , r e n t e r s f r e q u e n t l y h a v e u t i l i t i e s i n c l u d e d i n r e n t s . T h e y a c c o r d i n g l y r e c o r d a z e r o e x p e n d i t u r e f o r f u e l a n d u t i l i t i e s w h i l e r e p o r t i n g a c t u a l u t i l i t y e x p e n d i t u r e s a s a c o m p o n e n t o f t h e i r r e n t a l p a y m e n t s . To c o m p e n s a t e i n d e r i v i n g t o t a l a v e r a g e e x p e n d i t u r e , t h e r e p o r t e d e x p e n d i t u r e s a r e i n f l a t e d by d i v i d i n g t h e r e p o r t e d a v e r a g e by t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f h o u s e h o l d s r e p o r t i n g e x p e n d i t u r e s . F r o m t h e s e a v e r a g e e x p e n d i t u r e s t h e p r o p o r t i o n a l l o c a t e d t o e a c h c o m p o n e n t i s t h e n d e r i v e d . An e x a m p l e o f t h e s e c a l c u l a t i o n s f o r t h e V a n c o u v e r CMA i s o u t l i n e d i n T a b l e A 1 : 0 1 . A v e r a g e % I t e m " R e p o r t e d " H o u s e h o l d s A v e r a g e E x p e n d i t u r e R e p o r t e d E x p e n d i t u r e P r o p o r t i o n P r o p e r t y T a x e s 1 7 4 . 2 5 6 . 9 3 0 6 . 0 0 . 3 5 6 I n s u r a n c e 16 .1 2 8 . 5 5 6 . 0 0 . 0 6 5 R e p a i r s 9 8 . 2 4 3 . 2 2 2 7 . 0 0 . 2 6 4 F u e l a n d U t i l i t i e s 2 5 0 . 0 8 6 . 7 2 7 1 . 0 0 . 3 1 5 T o t a l 8 6 0 . 0 s o u r c e : 1969 S u r v e y o f F a m i l y E x p e n d i t u r e T a b l e A1-.01 VANCOUVER : D i s t r i b u t i o n o f O p e r a t i n g C o s t s To o b t a i n t h e a v e r a g e o p e r a t i n g c o s t s f o r e a c h y e a r o v e r t h e d e c a d e , e a c h o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l c o m p o n e n t s i s m u l t i p l i e d by i t s p r i c e i n d e x number i n t h e C o n s u m e r P r i c e I n d e x , ( C P I ) . I n many i n s t a n c e s l o c a l C P I c o m p o n e n t s a r e n o t a v a i l a b l e a n d t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g " n a t i o n a l " v a l u e s h a v e t o be e m p l o y e d : t h i s f a c t o r w i l l o b s c u r e i m p o r t a n t p r i c e d i f f e r e n t i a l by CMA I n T a b l e A 1 : 0 2 V a n c o u v e r ' s i n d e x n u m b e r s f o r e a c h o f t h e y e a r s 1961 -71 ( 1 9 6 9 = 1 0 0 ) a r e p r e s e n t e d , a l o n g w i t h t h e e s t i m a t e d a n n u a l o p e r a t i n g c o s t s . 193 Y e a r P r o p e r t y T a x D w e l l i n g I n s u r a n c e D w e l l i n g R e p a i r s F u e l a n d A v e r a g e U t i l i t i e s E x p e n d i t u r e 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1 968 1969 1970 1 971 6 9 . 5 7 2 . 3 7 4 . 0 7 6 . 4 7 9 . 2 8 2 . 9 8 6 . 2 9 2 . 0 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 7 . 3 1 1 0 . 3 6 5 . 5 6 6 . 5 6 8 . 3 7 2 . 6 7 6 . 8 8 2 . 3 8 7 . 1 9 3 . 5 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 5 . 6 1 2 9 . 4 7 3 . 7 7 4 . 0 7 5 . 6 7 8 . 7 8 2 . 2 8 5 . 3 9 0 . 6 9 6 . 2 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 8 . 8 1 1 6 . 3 9 3 . 9 9 3 . 2 8 2 . 3 9 0 . 9 9 0 . 6 9 0 . 6 9 3 . 9 9 7 . 7 1 0 0 . 0 1 0 4 . 7 1 1 1 . 0 672 680 686 699 717 738 773 818 860 917 975 s o u r c e : S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a T a b l e A 1 : 0 2 VANCOUVER : O p e r a t i n g C o s t I n d i c e s ( 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 7 1 ) The o n l y c i t y - s p e c i f i c d a t a a v a i l a b l e on c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s f o r t h e d u r a t i o n o f t h e d e c a d e a r e f o r new s i n g l e d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s f i n a n c e d u n d e r t h e N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t , p u b l i s h e d on a n a n n u a l b a s i s by C . M . H . C . The o t h e r c o m p o n e n t e n t e r i n g t h e c a p i t a l c o s t e s t i m a t e s i s t h e m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e , w h i c h i s a v a i l a b l e f r o m t h e same s o u r c e a s a n a v e r a g e r a t e o n c o n v e n t i o n a l r e s i d e n t i a l m o r t g a g e s f o r t h e w h o l e o f C a n a d a . A g a i n some r e g i o n a l d i f f e r e n t i a l i s l o s t . By a s s u m i n g t h a t t h e a v e r a g e s i z e o f an N . H . A . d w e l l i n g o v e r t h e d e c a d e was 1000 s q u a r e f e e t , t h e a v e r a g e t o t a l c a p i t a l c o s t i s c a l c u l a t e d a s t h e d w e l l i n g l o t c o s t p l u s 1000 t i m e s t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t p e r s q u a r e f o o t . To c o n v e r t t h i s t o t a l c a p i t a l c o s t t o an e q u i v a l e n t a n n u a l u s e r c o s t b a s i s , t h i s t o t a l e x p e n d i t u r e i s m u l t i p l i e d b y t h e c o n v e n t i o n a l m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e . T h e s e c a l c u l a t i o n s , f o r V a n c o u v e r , a r e o u t l i n e d i n T a b l e A 1 : 0 3 . 1 94 C o n s t r u c t i o n T o t a l C o n v e n t i o n a l A n n u a l C o s t p e r D w e l l i n g L o t C a p i t a l I n t e r e s t C a p i t a l S q u a r e C o s t C o s t C o s t R a t e C o s t Y e a r F o o t [$] [$] [$] [%] [$] 1961 . 1 0 . 5 6 1 0 , 5 6 0 3 , 9 7 5 1 4 , 5 3 5 7 . 0 0 1 ,017 1962 1 0 . 3 3 1 0 , 3 3 0 3 , 9 2 8 1 4 , 2 5 8 6 . 9 7 993 1963 1 0 . 3 7 1 0 , 3 7 0 3 , 5 8 4 1 3 , 9 5 4 6 . 9 7 973 1 964 1 0 . 7 2 1 0 , 7 2 0 3 , 5 8 6 1 4 , 3 0 6 6 . 9 7 997 1 965 1 1 . 6 6 1-1 , 6 6 0 3 , 8 0 6 1 5 , 4 6 6 7 . 0 2 1 , 0 9 6 1 966 1 2 . 3 6 1 2 , 3 6 0 4 , 0 7 3 1 6 , 4 3 3 7 . 6 6 1 , 2 5 9 1967 1 3 . 5 5 1 3 , 5 5 0 4 , 2 2 8 1 7 , 7 7 8 8.0.7 1 , 4 3 5 1968 1 4 . 3 7 1 4 , 3 7 0 4 , 7 2 3 1 9 , 0 9 3 9 . 0 7 1 , 7 3 2 1969 1 5 . 3 2 1 5 , 3 2 0 6 , 0 8 8 2 1 , 4 0 8 9 . 8 6 2 , 107 1970 1 5 . 5 5 1 5 , 5 5 0 7 , 0 9 4 2 2 , 6 4 4 1 0 . 4 5 2 , 3 0 6 1 971 1 6 . 9 4 1 6 , 9 4 0 8 , 1 79 2 5 , 1 1 9 9 . 4 3 2 , 3 6 9 s o u r c e : C a n a d i a n H o u s i n g S t a t i s t i c s ( v a r i o u s y e a r s ) T a b l e A 1 : 0 3 VANCOUVER : D i s t r i b u t i o n o f C a p i t a l C o s t s To o b t a i n t h e v a l u e s o f P N , PC a n d PO c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e b a s i c MODEL s p e c i f i c a t i o n , w e i g h t e d mean v a l u e s o f t h e a n n u a l o p e r a t i n g a n d c a p i t a l c o s t s f o r 1962 -71 a r e c a l c u l a t e d by w e i g h t i n g t h e v a l u e s i n e a c h y e a r by t h e r a t i o o f d w e l l i n g s t a r t s i n t h e g i v e n y e a r t o t o t a l s t a r t s o v e r t h e t e n y e a r p e r i o d . The w e i g h t e d sum o f t h e t w o i n d i v i d u a l c o m p o n e n t s i s t h e n d i v i d e d by t o t a l c o s t s i n 1961 t o d e r i v e PO a n d PC i n t e r m s o f t h e b a s e " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s p r i c e o f u n i t y . The sum o f t h e s e t w o v a l u e s p r o v i d e s t h e ^ y a l u e f o r P N . - A s i n d i c a t e d i n T a b l e A 1 : 0 4 , t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g V a n c o u v e r v a l u e s f o r P O , PC a n d P N , r e s p e c t i v e l y , a r e 0 . 4 7 5 , 0 . 9 6 5 a n d 1 . 4 4 0 . 195 A n n u a l A n n u a l W e i g h t e d We i g h t e d O p e r a t i n g C a p i t a l D w e l l i n g W e i g h t O p e r a t i n g C a p i t a l Y e a r C o s t s C o s t s S t a r t s [ 1 ] C o s t s C o s t s 1 961 672 1 ,017 5 , 5 8 8 — — _ 1962 680 993 7 , 3 8 7 0 . 0 5 9 4 0 . 1 5 8 . 6 1 963 686 973 8 , 9 4 1 0 . 0 7 9 4 8 . 7 6 9 . 1 1 964 699 997 1 2 , 7 9 1 0 . 1 0 1 7 0 . 6 1 0 0 . 7 1965 717 1 , 0 8 6 1 1 , 6 8 4 0 . 0 9 3 6 6 . 7 1 0 1 . 0 1 966 738 1 , 2 5 9 9 , 1 38 0 . 0 7 2 5 3 . 1 9 0 . 6 1 967 773 1 , 4 3 5 1 3 , 8 9 6 0 . 1 1 0 8 5 . 0 1 5 7 . 9 1968 818 1 , 7 3 2 1 5 , 6 9 0 0 . 1 24 1 0 1 . 4 2 1 4 . 8 1969 860 2 , 1 07 1 7 , 6 9 0 0 . 1 40 1 2 0 . 4 2 9 5 . 0 1 970 917 2 , 3 0 6 1 3 , 4 3 7 0 . 1 06 9 7 . 2 2 5 0 . 8 1 971 975 2 , 3 6 9 1 5 , 5 5 3 0 . 1 23 1 2 0 . 0 291 . 4 T o t a l s | 8 0 3 . 2 1 6 3 0 . 0 8 0 3 . 2 1 6 3 0 . 0 PO = = 0 . 4 7 5 , PC = = 0 . 9 6 5 1 6 8 9 . 0 1 6 9 8 . 0 n o t e : [ 1 ] c a l c u l a t e d a s d w e l l i n g s t a r t / t o t a l s t a r t s f o r 1 9 6 2 - 7 1 T a b l e A 1 : 0 4 VANCOUVER : C a l c u l a t i o n o f PO a n d PC A l t e r n a t i v e l y , t o d e r i v e t h e d e c a d e - e n d v a l u e f o r P N , t h e sum o f t h e a n n u a l o p e r a t i n g a n d c a p i t a l c o s t s i n 1971 i s s i m p l y d i v i d e d by t h e e q u i v a l e n t 1961 sum. F o r e x a m p l e , t h e d e c a d e - e n d v a l u e f o r V a n c o u v e r i s d e r i v e d a s ; 9 7 5 . 6 + 2 3 6 9 . 0 3 3 4 4 . 6 P N = = = T > 9 8 0 6 7 2 . 0 + 1 0 1 7 . 0 1 6 8 9 . 0 C o r r e s p o n d i n g l y , PO a n d PC a r e c a l c u l a t e d a s t h e r a t i o o f t h e t w o i n d i v i d u a l c o m p o n e n t s . T h e d e c a d e - e n d v a l u e s f o r V a n c o u v e r o f P O , PC a n d PN a r e 0 . 5 7 8 , 1 .402 a n d 1 .980 r e s p e c t i v e l y . The c a l c u l a t e d v a l u e s f o r t h e v a r i o u s f o r m s o f P N , PC a n d PO a r e r e p o r t e d on a CMA b a s i s i n F i g u r e s A 3 : 1 0 . 196 A 1 . 3 R E G R E S S I O N A N A L Y S I S T h r e e i n d e p e n d e n t s e t s o f r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s e s a r e r e q u i r e d i n g e n e r a t i n g t h e " m o d e l " r e p r e s e n t a t i o n ; one f o c u s s i n g on t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s c o n s u m p t i o n p r e f e r e n c e s , t h e A L P H A p a r a m e t e r s ; t h e o t h e r two d e r i v i n g t h e 1961 a n d 1971 H e d o n i c c o e f f i c i e n t s r e q u i r e d i n e s t i m a t i n g t h e " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g r e p r e s e n t a t i o n f o r 1961 a n d 1971 r e s p e c t i v e l y . The f i n a l f o r m o f t h e e q u a t i o n s u t i l i z e d h a v e b e e n d e r i v e d a f t e r many a l t e r n a t i v e s p e c i f i c a t i o n s , u s i n g a l t e r n a t i v e d a t a s e t s , h a v e b e e n a t t e m p t e d . I n p a r t i c u l a r , t h e f i n a l e q u a t i o n f o r m f o r t h e h e d o n i c c o e f f i c i e n t i s t h a t w h i c h p r o v i d e s t h e b e s t f i t a c r o s s a l l o f t h e e i g h t s e l e c t e d CMAs s u b j e c t t o d a t a a v a i l a b i l i t y i n m a c h i n e - r e a d a b l e f o r m . A l l r e g r e s s i o n c a l c u l a t i o n s h a v e b e e n p e r f o r m e d u t i l i z i n g t h e UBC s y s t e m p r o g r a m " S H A Z A M " : V e r s i o n 2 . A 1 . 3 1 H e d o n i c P r i c e R e g r e s s i o n s F o u r s e t s o f h e d o n i c p r i c e c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e r e q u i r e d i n i m p l e m e n t i n g t h e m o d e l . T h e s e a r e d e r i v e d f o r 1961 r e n t a l u n i t s , 1961 o w n e r - o c c u p i e d u n i t s , 1971 r e n t a l u n i t s a n d 1971 o w n e r -o c c u p i e d u n i t s , t o be u s e d i n c r e a t i n g t h e 1961 a n d 1971 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s a n d t o e s t i m a t e t h e p r i c e a p p r e c i a t i o n o f e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s o v e r t h e 1961 -71 p e r i o d . W h i l e a d e t a i l e d d i s c u s s i o n o f how t h e s e r e s u l t s a r e u t i l i z e d i s p r e s e n t e d i n S e c t i o n A 1 . 4 , t h i s s e c t i o n s i m p l y d e s c r i b e s t h e a c t u a l h e d o n i c r e g r e s s i o n s . A1 .311 " 1 9 6 1 " H e d o n i c R e g r e s s i o n s The d a t a u s e d i n t h e s e r e g r e s s i o n s a r e b a s e d on i n f o r m a t i o n g a t h e r e d i n t h e 1961 C a n a d i a n C e n s u s . U n f o r t u n a t e l y , s u i t a b l e d a t a 197 on r e p r e s e n t a t i v e i n d i v i d u a l d w e l l i n g u n i t s a r e n o t a v a i l a b l e . R a t h e r , i n d i v i d u a l o b s e r v a t i o n s a r e a g g r e g a t e d i n t o e n u m e r a t i o n a r e a s e a c h c o n t a i n i n g 500 p e r s o n s on a v e r a g e . S u c h a g g r e g a t e d c e n s u s d a t a d o e s h a v e one a d v a n t a g e i n a s m u c h a s i t r e d u c e s d i s t o r t i o n s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e v a l u e o f t h e " p r i c e " o f o w n e r -o c c u p i e d d w e l l i n g s - v a r i a b l e . T h i s v a l u e i s a n o w n e r ' s e s t i m a t e r a t h e r t h a n a v a l u e d e r i v e d f r o m m a r k e t t r a n s a c t i o n s . T h u s , a g g r e g a t i o n t e n d s t o somewhat b a l a n c e t h e o p t i m i s t i c a n d p e s s i m i s t i c a s s e s s m e n t s o f o w n e r s . R e g r e s s i o n m o d e l s b a s e d on b o t h t h e e n u m e r a t i o n a r e a a n d t h e more h i g h l y a g g r e g a t e d c e n s u s t r a c t d a t a w e r e a t t e m p t e d f o r V a n c o u v e r . W i t h t h e i r h i g h e r d e g r e e o f a g g r e g a t i o n , t h e c e n s u s t r a c t m o d e l s p e r f o r m e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y b e t t e r when e v a l u a t e d i n t e r m s o f g o o d n e s s - o f - f i t , " R 2 " . B u t a s a r e s u l t o f t h i s a g g r e g a t i o n , t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s e x h i b i t e d a much g r e a t e r d e g r e e o f c o r r e l a t i o n w h i c h d i s t o r t s t h e d e r i v e d c o e f f i c i e n t s . The e n u m e r a t i o n a r e a d a t a was u s e d p r e c i s e l y f o r t h i s r e a s o n . A t t h e e n u m e r a t i o n a r e a l e v e l o f a g g r e g a t i o n t h e number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s a v a i l a b l e r a n g e d f r o m 135 f o r S t . J o h n ' s t o 1147 f o r V a n c o u v e r . The r e q u i r e d v a r i a b l e s a r e c o n t a i n e d i n t h e f i l e s C M A 6 1 . E A , w i t h t h e t r a n s f o r m a t i o n s b e i n g p e r f o r m e d d u r i n g i t s g e n e r a t i o n f r o m C e n s u s t a p e s . The f i n a l v a r i a b l e s s e l e c t e d f o r b o t h t h e r e n t a l a n d o w n e r - o c c u p i e r m o d e l s i n c l u d e ; t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f n o n - s i n g l e d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s i n t h e e n u m e r a t i o n a r e a , t h e p r o p o r t i o n c o n s t r u c t e d p r i o r t o 1 9 2 0 , t h e p r o p o r t i o n c o n s t r u c t e d b e t w e e n 1 9 2 0 -4 5 , t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f d w e l l i n g u n i t s c l a s s i f i e d by t h e c e n s u s t a k e r a s b e i n g i n g o o d c o n d i t i o n , t h e a v e r a g e number o f room's p e r d w e l l i n g , t h e a v e r a g e f a m i l y i n c o m e a n d a n a c c e s s v a r i a b l e b a s e d o n t h e c e n s u s t r a c t i n w h i c h t h e e n u m e r a t i o n a r e a i s l o c a t e d . D e t a i l s 198 on t h e a c c e s s v a r i a b l e , w h i c h i s d e r i v e d i n d e p e n d e n t o f t h e c e n s u s d a t a , w h i c h a r e c o n t a i n e d i n t h e o u t l i n e o f t h e d a t a f i l e i n t h e p r e v i o u s S e c t i o n . The a v e r a g e f a m i l y i n c o m e , t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f a p a r t m e n t u n i t s a n d t h e a c c e s s v a r i a b l e a r e t r e a t e d a s p r o x i e s f o r n e i g h b o u r h o o d c o n d i t i o n s : t h e o t h e r v a r i a b l e s r e p r e s e n t s t r u c t u r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . W i t h t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s , t o t a l g r o s s r e n t i n e a c h e n u m e r a t i o n a r e a i s p r o v i d e d , a n d t h u s t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e f o r t h e r e n t a l m o d e l , v a r i a b l e " 1 8 " , i s s i m p l y d e r i v e d by d i v i d i n g t h i s t o t a l r e n t by t h e number o f r e n t a l u n i t s . An e q u i v a l e n t v a l u e f o r t h e o w n e r - o c c u p i e d s t o c k i s n o t , h o w e v e r , a v a i l a b l e . R a t h e r , t h e number o f s i n g l e d e t a c h e d n o n - f a r m d w e l l i n g s i n e a c h o f t h e f o l l o w i n g g r o u p s i s p r o v i d e d : l e s s t h a n $ 3 , 0 0 0 . , $ 3 - 7 , 9 9 9 . , $ 8 -1 2 , 9 9 9 . , $ 1 3 - 1 7 , 9 9 9 . , $ 1 8 - 2 2 , 9 9 9 . , $ 2 3 - 2 7 , 9 9 9 . , $ 2 8 - 3 2 , 9 9 9 . , $ 3 3 -3 7 , 9 9 9 . a n d $ 3 8 , 0 0 0 . p l u s . T h e r e f o r e , v a r i a b l e " 2 4 " , t h e a v e r a g e p r i c e , i s d e r i v e d by w e i g h t i n g e a c h c a t e g o r y ' s mean d w e l l i n g v a l u e by t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s . T h e l o w e r b o u n d was s e t t o $ 1 , 5 0 0 : t h e u p p e r t o $ 4 0 , 0 0 0 . S i n c e t h e d a t a e m p l o y e d i s g r o u p e d w i t h a n o n - c o n s t a n t p r o p o r t i o n o f r e n t a l a n d o w n e r - o c c u p i e d u n i t s i n e a c h g r o u p ( i . e . e n u m e r a t i o n a r e a ) , w e i g h t e d l e a s t s q u a r e s , W . L . S . , r a t h e r t h a n o r d i n a r y l e a s t s q u a r e s , O . L . S . , p r o v i d e t h e b e s t l i n e a r u n b i a s e d e s t i m a t e s o f t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s . The i n d i v i d u a l w e i g h t s f o r e a c h o b s e r v a t i o n i s t h e s q u a r e r o o t o f t h e number o f o w n e r - o c c u p i e d a n d r e n t a l u n i t s i n t h e o w n e r - o c c u p i e d a n d r e n t a l m o d e l s , r e s p e c t i v e l y . I n a t t e m p t i n g t o g e n e r a t e f u n c t i o n a l e q u a t i o n s s u i t a b l e a c r o s s a l l C M A s , s e v e r a l d i f f e r e n t f o r m s o f b o t h t h e d e p e n d e n t a n d i n d e p e n d e n t m o d e l s ( l o g s , s q u a r e s , e t c . ) w e r e t e s t e d . The m o d e l s 199 t h a t o f f e r t h e b e s t f i t w e r e t h o s e u t i l i z i n g a n a t u r a l l o g a r i t h m i c s p e c i f i c a t i o n on t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e . ( A l t h o u g h n o t r e p o r t e d t h i s i s a l s o t h e f o r m o f t h e m o d e l s u s e d b y t h e U . I . ) . T h e f i n a l f o r m o f t h e m o d e l e m p l o y e d h a s b o t h i n c o m e a n d rooms a l s o i n l o g a r i t h m i c f o r m , a c c e s s a s a p u r e number i n t h e a p p r o x i m a t e r a n g e o f 1 t o 200 a n d t h e r e m a i n i n g i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s s p e c i f i e d a s p r o p o r t i o n s i n t h e r a n g e 0 . 0 t o 1 . 0 . C o m p l e t e r e s u l t s f o r b o t h an O . L . S . a n d a W . L . S . s p e c i f i c a t i o n a r e r e p o r t e d on a CMA b a s i s i n F i g u r e s A 3 : 0 5 . An e x a m p l e s e t o f r e s u l t s f o r V a n c o u v e r i s p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e A 1 : 0 5 . F o r t h e e i g h t s e l e c t e d C M A s , V a n c o u v e r i s t h e o n l y CMA w i t h a l l c o e f f i c i e n t s s i g n i f i c a n t a t a 90% l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e . The m a j o r i t y o f e q u a t i o n s h a d o n l y one c o e f f i c i e n t n o t s i g n i f i c a n t a l t h o u g h S a s k a t o o n ' s r e n t a l m o d e l h a s t h r e e ; i n c l u d i n g t h e c o e f f i c i e n t on t h e LN i n c o m e . T h i s i s t h e o n l y c o e f f i c i e n t on e i t h e r t h e L N ROOMS o r L N INCOME t h a t i s n o t s i g n i f i c a n t . M o s t o f t h e i n s i g n i f i c a n t c o e f f i c i e n t s w e r e on t h e a g e v a r i a b l e 2 0 - 4 5 , o r t h e A C C E S S v a r i a b l e ; p r o b a b l y r e s u l t i n g f r o m c o r r e l a t i o n p r o b l e m s . The o n l y CMA w i t h i n t e r c e p t s , C O N S T A N T S , n o t s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t f r o m 0 . 0 was S t . J o h n ' s , w h e r e t h e m a j o r i t y o f t h e e x p l a n a t o r y p o w e r f e l l on t h e L N INCOME v a r i a b l e . F o r t h e r e m a i n i n g C M A s , t h e e q u i v a l e n t v a l u e s l i e b e t w e e n 3 . 0 amd 7 . 0 : t h e i m p a c t i s t h a t t h e v a l u e s d e r i v e d f r o m t h e S t . J o h n ' s h e d o n i c s t e n d e d t o u n d e r e s t i m a t e t h e r e l a t i v e q u a n t i t i e s o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s . I n t e r m s o f g o o d n e s s - o f - f i t , t h e r e p o r t e d R 2 ' s on t h e O . L . S . m o d e l ( W . L . S . u p w a r d b i a s e s t h e r e p o r t e d R 2 ' s ) , r a n g e f r o m 0 . 3 2 t o 0 . 6 6 , w i t h t h e o w n e r - o c c u p i e d m o d e l p r o v i d i n g a b e t t e r f i t on a v e r a g e . 200 OWNER/OCCUPIER MODEL O . L . S . W . L . S . CONSTANT M U L T I P L E CONSTRUCTED PRE 20 2 0 - 4 5 C O N D I T I O N L N ROOMS L N INCOME A C C E S S 6 . 6 0 2 7 ( 2 8 . 9 ) 0 . 6 8 7 1 ( 1 8 . 7 ) - . 2 9 3 1 ( 6 . 7 9 ) - . 1 4 7 6 ( 5 . 0 0 ) 0 . 2 3 1 8 ( 6 . 4 1 ) 1 . 1482 ( 2 3 . 6 ) 0 . 1 1 5 8 ( 4 . 2 0 ) - . 0 0 1 0 ( 5 . 1 8 ) 6 . 6 7 0 0 ( 3 7 . 9 ) 0 . 6 2 7 5 ( 1 8 . 3 ) - . 4 1 2 4 ( 1 0 . 6 ) - . 1540 ( 6 . 7 7 ) 0 . 1 4 3 8 ( 4 . 8 5 ) 1 . 3 9 7 5 ( 3 4 . 4 ) 0 . 0 6 6 6 ( 3 . 1 1 ) . 0 0 0 8 ( 5 . 6 0 ) R E N T A L O . L . S . 4 . 6 9 8 5 ( 1 5 . 6 ) 0 . 2 3 0 3 ( 4 . 8 8 ) - . 4 2 5 8 ( 7 . 5 0 ) - . 1 3 7 7 ( 3 . 4 6 ) 0 . 1 7 5 8 ( 3 . 6 7 ) 0 . 7 3 4 5 ( 1 1 . 2 ) 0 . 1388 ( 3 . 8 3 ) - . 0 0 2 9 ( 1 1 . 0 ) MODEL W . L . S . 4 . 1 2 1 9 ( 1 7 . 2 ) 0 . 2 6 2 0 ( 8 . 4 7 ) - . 3 4 7 1 ( 9 . 4 9 ) - . 1 6 0 8 ( 4 . 9 7 ) 0 . 2 0 2 5 ( 6 . 0 2 ) 0 . 5 5 1 3 ( 1 1 . 9 ) 0 . 2 3 6 1 ( 8 . 2 4 ) - . 0 0 2 3 ( 1 1 . 6 ) R2 O B S E R V A T I O N S 0 . 5 0 1213 0 . 9 9 1213 0 . 3 5 1 147 0 . 9 9 1 1 47 n o t e " t " s t a t i s t i s i n b r a c k e t s d a t a s o u r c e : V A N 6 1 . E A W . L . S . o v e r e s t i m a t e s t h e R2 v a l u e s r e p o r t e d T a b l e A 1 : 0 5 V A N C O U V E R : 1961 HEDONICS A 1 . 3 1 2 " 1 9 7 1 " H e d o n i c R e g r e s s i o n s D a t a f o r a s e l e c t e d s a m p l e o f i n d i v i d u a l d w e l l i n g u n i t s g a t h e r e d f o r t h e 1971 C e n s u s a r e a v a i l a b l e a s a c o m p o n e n t o f t h e 1974 S u r v e y o f H o u s i n g U n i t s d a t a r e c o r d , ( s e e C M A . S H U f i l e ) . T h e p r o b l e m w i t h t h i s d a t a i s t h a t no means i s a v a i l a b l e t o i d e n t i f y t h e l o c a t i o n o f t h e d w e l l i n g a n d t h u s no s p a t i a l v a r i a b l e s u c h a s A C C E S S c a n be i n c l u d e d . T h i s d a t a s e t p r o v i d e s a p p r o x i m a t e l y 1100 201 o b s e r v a t i o n s p e r m o d e l , p e r CMA W h i l e t h i s d a t a s e t h a s t h i s p r o b l e m , t h e a l t e r n a t i v e d a t a s o u r c e , t h e 1971 e n u m e r a t i o n a r e a d a t a c o n t a i n s e r r o r s i n c r i t i c a l " v a l u e " v a r i a b l e s a n d i s n o t s u i t a b l e . U s i n g t h e SHU d a t a , r e n t a l a n d o w n e r - o c c u p i e d m o d e l s s i m i l a r t o t h o s e f o r 1961 a r e e s t i m a t e d w i t h l o g a r i t h m i c d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . . W h i l e a c t u a l 1971 r e n t s a r e p r o v i d e d , t h e 1971 d w e l l i n g v a l u e i s p r o v i d e d i n t e r m s o f a c o d e d r a n g e o f v a l u e s . The o p t i o n s a v a i l a b l e when g e n e r a t i n g t h e 1971 d w e l l i n g v a l u e d a t a w e r e t o d e f l a t e t h e 1974 v a l u e s p r o v i d e d o r s e t t h e v a l u e e q u a l t o t h e mean o f t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n g r o u p . The l a t t e r o p t i o n was t a k e n , w i t h d w e l l i n g s i n t h e u n d e r $ 3 , 0 0 0 c a t e g o r y b e i n g g i v e n a v a l u e o f $ 2 , 0 0 0 ; t h o s e i n t h e $ 6 2 , 0 0 0 p l u s c a t e g o r y w e r e g i v e n a v a l u e o f $ 7 0 , 0 0 0 . The mean v a l u e s f o r t h e o t h e r t e n c a t e g o r i e s a r e ; $ 5 , 2 5 0 . , $ 1 0 , 0 0 0 . , $ 1 5 , 0 0 0 . , $ 2 0 , 0 0 0 . , $ 2 5 , 0 0 0 . , $ 3 0 , 0 0 0 . , $ 3 5 , 0 0 0 . , $ 4 0 , 0 0 0 . , $ 4 7 , 5 0 0 . a n d $ 5 7 , 5 0 0 . The s e l e c t e d i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s i n c l u d e d i n b o t h m o d e l s w e r e ; b i n a r y dummy v a r i a b l e s f o r a n o n - s i n g l e d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g u n i t , f o r t h e y e a r o f c o n s t r u c t i o n c l a s s i f i e d i n t o f o u r g r o u p s ( p r e 2 0 , 2 0 - 4 5 , 4 6 - 5 0 a n d 5 1 - 6 0 ) , a n d f o r t h e p r e s e n c e o f a l l b a s i c f a c i l i t i e s a s a p r o x y f o r c o n d i t i o n . L i k e t h e 1961 m o d e l s , t h e l o g a r i t h m i c v a l u e s o f i n c o m e a n d number o f r o o m s w e r e t h e two f i n a l i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s i n c l u d e d . I n c o m e a n d t h e p r e s e n c e o f a m u l t i p l e d w e l l i n g a r e t a k e n a s i n d i c a t o r s o f n e i g h b o u r h o o d a t t r i b u t e s ; t h e r e m a i n d e r a r e t a k e n a s s t r u c t u r a l a t t r i b u t e s . T h e s e i n d i v i d u a l o b s e r v a t i o n s i n t h e SHU d a t a a r e d r a w n f r o m t h e 1971 c e n s u s d a t a on t h e b a s i s o f o b t a i n i n g a r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s a m p l e o f t h e CMA A s a r e s u l t e a c h r e c o r d c o n t a i n s a w e i g h t i n g f a c t o r c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e number o f s i m i l a r d w e l l i n g s t h e r e c o r d 202 r e p r e s e n t s . A s s u c h , t h e o b s e r v a t i o n c a n be t r e a t e d a s t h e mean r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f a d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n c o r r e s p o n d i n g i n s i z e t o t h e w e i g h t i n g f a c t o r . The d a t a s e t i s i n f a c t g r o u p e d w i t h a n o n - c o n s t a n t g r o u p i n g f a c t o r a n d a g a i n a s i n t h e 1961 m o d e l s * W . L . S . r a t h e r t h a n O . L . S . p r o v i d e s t h e b e s t l i n e a r u n b i a s e d e s t i m a t e s o f t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s w h e r e t h e w e i g h t i n g f o r t h e i n d i v i d u a l o b s e r v a t i o n s i s t h e s q u a r e r o o t o f t h e r e p o r t e d w e i g h t i n g f a c t o r . C o m p l e t e r e s u l t s f o r b o t h an O . L . S . a n d a c o r r e s p o n d i n g W . L . S . s p e c i f i c a t i o n a r e r e p o r t e d on a CMA b a s i s i n F i g u r e s A 3 : 0 7 . An e x a m p l e s e t o f r e s u l t s f o r V a n c o u v e r i s p r e s e n t e d i n T a b l e A 1 : 0 6 . F o r t h e e i g h t s e l e c t e d CMAs l e s s t h a n h a l f o f t h e m o d e l s c o n t a i n a n i n s i g n i f i c a n t c o e f f i c i e n t a t a 90% l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e . I n m o s t o f t h e m o d e l s a l l c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e s i g n i f i c a n t a t a 95% l e v e l . O v e r h a l f o f t h e i n s i g n i f i c a n t c o e f f i c i e n t s w e r e f o r t h e M U L T I P L E v a r i a b l e ( b i n a r y 1 dummy i f n o n - s i n g l e d e t a c h e d u n i t ) , i n t h e r e n t a l m o d e l s . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e f l u c t u a t i o n o f t h e s i g n on t h i s v a r i a b l e i n d i c a t e s t h a t i t i s a c t i n g a s a p r o x y f o r a c c e s s . I n t h e o w n e r - o c c u p i e r m o d e l t h e s i g n i s d e t e r m i n e d by t h e d o m i n a n c e o f e i t h e r a c c e s s a t t r i b u t e s o r t h e d i s u t i l i t y a s o c i a t e d w i t h h i g h e r d e n s i t i e s . O v e r a l l t h e e x p l a n a t o r y p o w e r o f t h e m o d e l s i s s l i g h t l y l o w e r t h a n t h a t o f t h e 1961 m o d e l s , w i t h R 2 ' s r a n g i n g f r o m 0 . 2 9 t o 0 . 4 9 f o r t h e O . L . S . m o d e l s . G i v e n t h e d i s a g g r e g a t e d n a t u r e o f t h e d a t a , t h i s l e v e l o f f i t i s c o m p a r a b l e w i t h o t h e r s t u d i e s r e p o r t e d , ( s e e B a l l ( 1 9 7 3 ) ) . OWNER/OCCUPIER MODEL O . L . S . W . L . S . CONSTANT M U L T I P L E CONSTRUCTION 5 1 - 6 0 4 6 - 5 0 2 0 - 4 5 PRE 20 F A C I L I T I E S L N INCOME L N ROOMS R2 O B S E R V A T I O N S 8 . 6 6 1 8 ( 5 1 . 9 ) 0 . 1128 ( 3 . 6 3 ) - . 1 8 5 4 ( 5 . 1 0 ) - . 2 5 7 9 ( 6 . 7 7 ) - . 2 8 3 6 ( 8 . 3 4 ) - . 3 4 9 9 ( 8 . 6 2 ) 0 . 1 1 0 0 ( 1 . 1 2 ) 0 . 0 7 6 9 ( 5 . 4 2 ) 0 . 5 1 8 6 ( 1 5 . 1 ) 0 . 3 1 1 082 8 . 4 8 0 2 ( 5 0 . 0 ) 0 . 1549 ( 4 . 4 5 ) - . 1 8 8 6 ( 5 . 2 4 ) - . 2 2 2 2 ( 5 . 8 9 ) - . 2 8 4 6 ( 8 . 5 3 ) - . 3 9 2 3 ( 9 . 8 0 ) 0 . 1 2 8 7 ( 1 . 2 4 ) 0 . 0 9 6 8 ( 6 . 8 5 ) 0 . 5 0 3 1 ( 1 3 . 5 ) 0 . 9 9 1 082 R E N T A L O . L . S . 5 . 6 5 4 ( 4 3 . 0 ) - . 0 5 6 0 ( 1 . 7 0 ) - . 1 5 5 0 ( 5 . 8 1 ) - . 1 8 5 9 ( 4 . 7 6 ) - . 2 5 9 9 ( 8 . 7 9 ) - . 3 2 5 4 ( 8 . 5 0 ) 0 . 2 4 0 3 ( 4 . 9 8 ) 0 . 1447 ( 1 0 . 5 ) 0 . 2 5 8 0 ( 1 0 . 4 ) 0 . 3 5 1 1 50 MODEL W . L . S . 5 . 7 8 4 6 ( 4 9 . 5 ) - . 1 0 1 9 ( 3 . 0 6 ) - . 1 1 6 1 ( 3 . 9 8 ) - . 1727 ( 4 . 2 0 ) - . 2 4 6 3 ( 8 . 0 8 ) - . 3 1 1 9 ( 8 . 2 6 ) 0 . 2 2 1 1 ( 4 . 8 2 ) 0 . 1325 ( 1 0 . 7 ) 0 . 2 7 3 8 ( 1 1 . 1 ) 0 . 9 8 1 1 50 WEIGHTED 2 0 - 4 5 / P R E 20 - . 3 0 0 8 - . 3 1 2 6 - . 2 8 3 2 - . 2 6 9 6 n o t e " t " s t a t i s t i s i n b r a c k e t s d a t a s o u r c e : V A N . S H U w e i g h t e d c o e f f i c i e n t f o r 2 0 - 4 5 a n d PRE 20 u s e d a s a c t u a l c e n s u s d a t a c o m b i n e s t h e s e v a r i a b l e s T a b l e A 1 : 0 6 V A N C O U V E R : 1971 HEDONICS 204 A 1 . 3 2 " A L P H A " P a r a m e t e r s When c a l i b r a t i n g t h e MODELS t o a CMA t h e A L P H A p a r a m e t e r s , i n d i c a t i n g h o u s e h o l d s ' p r e f e r e n c e s f o r new " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s v i s -a - v i s o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s i n t h e f o r m o f a h o u s i n g e x p e n d i t u r e t o i n c o m e r a t i o , a r e e s t i m a t e d v i a r e g r e s s i o n . W h i l e s u c h A L P H A v a l u e s a r e e x p e c t e d t o v a r y by h o u s e h o l d , t h e demand f u n c t i o n e m p l o y e d i n t h e O R I G I N A L MODEL r e q u i r e s t h a t t h e s e p a r a m e t e r s be e s t i m a t e d by h o u s e h o l d T Y P E g r o u p i n g s , s i n c e i n d e r i v i n g t h e demand f u n c t i o n v i a c o n s t r a i n e d m a x i m i z a t i o n i t h a s b e e n a s s u m e d t h a t t h e A L P H A p a r a m e t e r i s c o n s t a n t ; f o r c o n v e n i e n c e , c o n s t a n t by h o u s e h o l d T Y P E . The f i r s t p a r t o f t h i s s e c t i o n o u t l i n e s t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e s e c o n s t a n t A L P H A S , b u t s i n c e t h e A L P H A p a r a m e t e r i s i n f a c t an i n c o m e - e x p e n d i t u r e r a t i o a n d t h e o r e t i c a l a n d t e n t a t i v e e m p i r i c a l e v i d e n c e s u g g e s t s t h a t s u c h p r e f e r e n c e s a r e a l s o i n c o m e d e p e n d e n t s e v e r a l a l t e r n a t i v e s p e c i f i c a t i o n s f o r t h e e x p e n d i t u r e - i n c o m e r a t i o h a v e a l s o b e e n e v a l u a t e d , o f w h i c h f o u r a r e b r i e f l y r e p o r t e d i n t h e l a t t e r p a r t o f t h i s s e c t i o n . To e s t i m a t e t h e A L P H A p a r a m e t e r s u s e i s made o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n p r i c e , q u a n t i t y a n d i n c o m e i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t h e d e r i v e d demand f o r new " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s f u n c t i o n . A L P H A i Q N i = * Y i PN . . . A 1 : 1 w h e r e ; Q N i i s t h e q u a n t i t y o f new h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s c o n s u m e d , Y i i s t h e " m o d e l " i n c o m e o f t h e h o u s e h o l d PN i s t h e p r i c e p e r u n i t o f " n e w " h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s . 205 To o b t a i n t h e b a s i c r e l a t i o n s h i p f o r e s t i m a t i n g p u r p o s e s f r o m E q u a t i o n A 1 : 1 t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s e x p e n d i t u r e on h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s c a n be e x p r e s s e d a s : P j * QNj = A L P H A i * Y i = R . . . A 1 : 2 w h e r e ; R i s t h e p e r p e r i o d e x p e n d i t u r e on h o u s i n g , w h i c h g i v e s ; R = A L P H A i * ( 1 . 0 + u ) Y i . . . A 1 : 3 w h e r e ; u i s a d i s t u r b a n c e t e r m w i t h a mean o f z e r o T h i s r e l a t i o n s h i p a s s u c h c a n be e s t i m a t e d t o o b t a i n a s i n g l e A L P H A p a r a m e t e r f o r a CMA I n o r d e r t o e s t i m a t e i n d i v i d u a l A L P H A v a l u e s f o r e a c h h o u s e h o l d T Y P E g r o u p ( e i g h t v a l u e s w i t h t h e p r e s e n t g r o u p i n g s ) , E q u a t i o n A 1 : 3 i s r e s p e c i f i e d a s ; R l o g ( ) = log(ALPHA1)+D2+D3+D4+D5+D6+D7+D8+U Y i . . . A 1 : 4 w h e r e ; D i , i = 2 . . 8 a r e b i n a r y i n t e r c e p t d u m m i e s by T Y P E s u c h t h a t ; l o g ( A L P H A k ) = l o g ( A L P H A l ) + Dk f o r k = 2 . . . 8 I t m u s t a l s o be n o t e d t h a t Y i i n c l u d e d i n E q u a t i o n A 1 : 4 i s t h e i n d i v i d u a l h o u s e h o l d ' s " m o d e l " i n c o m e , n o t r e p o r t e d " a c t u a l " i n c o m e . The r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n " m o d e l " i n c o m e a n d " a c t u a l " i n c o m e e m p l o y e d i n s i m u l a t i o n s i s g i v e n by E q u a t i o n 6:8 a s ; 206 Y i = ( A Y i * * e ) * ( M Y t y p e * * ( 1 . - e ) ) • • • A1 5 5 w h e r e ; Y i i s t h e " m o d e l i n c o m e o f h o u s e h o l d " i " A Y i i s t h e " a c t u a l " i n c o m e o f h o u s e h o l d " i " M Y t y p e i s t h e mean i n c o m e o f h o u s e h o l d s i n t h e same h o u s e h o l d t y p e a s h o u s e h o l d " i " e i s t h e " p e r m a n e n t " i n c o m e e l a s t i c i t y o f demand T h u s , i n e s t i m a t i n g E q u a t i o n A 1 : 4 , Y i mus t be c a l c u l a t e d f o r i n d i v i d u a l h o u s e h o l d s i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h E q u a t i o n A 1 : 5 . A s n o t e d i n S e c t i o n 6 . 4 , t h e r e i s no s o u n d e m p i r i c a l e v i d e n c e a v a i l a b l e w i t h r e g a r d t o a s u i t a b l e v a l u e f o r t h e " p e r m a n e n t " i n c o m e e l a s t i c i t y o f d e m a n d . The A L P H A p a r a m e t e r s w e r e t h e r e f o r e e s t i m a t e d o v e r a r a n g e o f v a l u e s f o r " e " ( 0 . 5 t o 1 .0) a n d t h e s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f " e " t h a t p r o v i d e d t h e b e s t f i t f o r E q u a t i o n A 1 : 4 was s e l e c t e d i n d e r i v i n g t h e f i n a l ALPHA p a r a m e t e r s e t a n d f o r u s e i n t h e s i m u l a t i o n M O D E L S . G e n e r a l l y , t h e s p e c i f i c a t i o n w h i c h i m p l i e d an e l a s t i c i t y o f 0 . 6 p r o v i d e d t h e b e s t a v e r a g e f i t a c r o s s t h e s e l e c t e d CMAs a n d t h e A L P H A S f o r a l l CMAs h a v e a c c o r d i n g l y b e e n e s t i m a t e d u s i n g s u c h a v a l u e . A l l d a t a u s e d t o make t h e s e d e c a d e - e n d e s t i m a t e s a r e f r o m t h e 1974 S u r v e y o f H o u s i n g U n i t s , ( C M A . S H U f i l e ) . T h i s f i l e c o n t a i n s b o t h 1971 a n d 1974 d a t a a s p r e v i o u s l y i n d i c a t e d . A f t e r p e r f o r m i n g s e v e r a l t e s t s w i t h a l t e r n a t i v e v a r i a b l e c o m b i n a t i o n s , t h e e s t i m a t i o n s w e r e made u s i n g a c t u a l r e p o r t e d 1974 i n c o m e s , r e n t s a n d v a l u e s d e f l a t e d a t t h e mean t o r e p o r t e d 1971 c e n s u s e q u i v a l e n t s . The c o r r e s p o n d i n g 1971 a n d 1974 v a l u e s a r e i n d i c a t e d f o r V a n c o u v e r i n T a b l e A 1 : 0 7 . I n a d d i t i o n , d w e l l i n g v a l u e s m u s t be r e d u c e d t o a n a n n u a l e q u i v a l e n t amoun t c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o r e n t s v i a a n e s t i m a t e d 207 r e n t t o v a l u e r a t i o . T h e s e " r e n t " e q u i v a l e n t a d j u s t o r s mus t c o r r e s p o n d t o t h e h e d o n i c a l l y d e r i v e d q u a l i t y A D J U S T O R s u t i l i z e d i n g e n e r a t i n g t h e " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s . A c c o r d i n g l y , t h e r e n t t o v a l u e r a t i o s u t i l i z e d a r e d e r i v e d a s o u t p u t f r o m t h e p r o g r a m " D 7 1 . F O R T " , o u t l i n e d i n S e c t i o n A 1 . 4 5 . S i n c e d a t a on e x p e n d i t u r e s a n d i n c o m e s r e l a t e s t o t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k a n d n o t new d w e l l i n g s s p e c i f i c a l l y , i n u s i n g t h e o u t l i n e d p r o c e d u r e t o e s t i m a t e t h e A L P H A S one mus t a s s u m e t h a t t h e p r i c e p e r u n i t o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e f r o m a new d w e l l i n g i s e q u a l t o t h e p r i c e p e r u n i t o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e f r o m e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s , ( i . e . P N = P j ) . A l t e r n a t i v e l y t h i s a s s u m p t i o n i m p l i e s t h a t a h o u s e h o l d w i l l make t h e same e x p e n d i t u r e on "new" h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s a s on " o l d " . I f i n f a c t h o u s e h o l d s s p e n d more f o r t h e r i g h t t o t h e c o n s u m p t i o n o f new h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s , t h i s a p p r o a c h w i l l t e n d t o u n d e r e s t i m a t e t h e A L P H A p a r a m e t e r v a l u e s a n d c o n s e q u e n t l y t h e o p t i m a l q u a n t i t y o f "new" h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s c o n s u m e d . A s n o t e d i n t h e p r e v i o u s S e c t i o n , t h e SHU d a t a r e c o r d s r e p r e s e n t n o n - c o n s t a n t g r o u p e d d a t a a n d W . L . S . i s more a p p r o p r i a t e t h a n O . L . S . C o m p l e t e r e s u l t s u n d e r b o t h O . L . S . a n d W . L . S . a r e r e p o r t e d a l o n g w i t h t h e d e r i v e d A L P H A S on a CMA b a s i s i n F i g u r e s A 3 : 0 8 . The V a n c o u v e r e x a m p l e f o l l o w s a s T a b l e A 1 : 0 7 . One s h o u l d n o t e t h a t t h e " t " s t a t i s t i c i n d i c a t e s t h e l e v e l o f s i g n i f i c a n c e o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e A L P H A p a r a m e t e r a n d A L P H A 1 . W h i l e t h e R2 s t a t i s t i c s a r e l o w , o n l y s e v e n c o e f f i c i e n t s i n t h e W . L . S . m o d e l s h a d s t a n d a r d e r r o r s t h a t i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g A L P H A S w e r e n o t s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t f r o m ALPHA 1 a t a 90% c o n f i d e n c e l e v e l . I n g e n e r a l , W . L . S . p r o v i d e d s l i g h t l y h i g h e r v a l u e s f o r A L P H A 1, b u t no s i m i l a r p a t t e r n e x i s t e d f o r t h e r e m a i n i n g v a l u e s . 208 a d j u s t m e n t v a l u e s : 1971 C e n s u s 2 8 , 8 7 1 . 1 3 3 . 9 , 9 3 1 . P R I C E RENT INCOME R / V r a t i o : 0 . 0 5 4 0 r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s a n d A L P H A s : O . L . S . MODEL 1974 SHU 6 2 , 8 4 3 . 1 7 8 . 1 1 , 6 4 4 . d e f l a t o r 0 . 4 5 9 4 1 0 . 7 4 7 1 9 0 . 8 5 2 8 8 P j / P N r a t i o : 1 . 0 3 3 8 2 W . L . S . MODEL c o e f f i c i e n t s A L P H A S [ 1 ] CONSTANT ( T Y P E 1) DUMMY ( T Y P E 2) DUMMY ( T Y P E 3) DUMMY ( T Y P E 4) DUMMY ( T Y P E 5) DUMMY ( T Y P E 6) DUMMY ( T Y P E 7) DUMMY ( T Y P E 8) R2 O B S E R V A T I O N S 2 . 9 8 3 7 ( 8 3 . 7 ) - . 3 2 7 2 ( 8 . 0 5 ) - . 3 0 6 2 ( 6 . 1 9 ) - . 4 5 4 9 ( 1 0 . 5 ) 0 . 0 9 0 9 ( 1 . 9 9 ) 0 . 1 2 2 1 ( 2 . 6 9 ) - . 1 4 2 8 ( 3 . 2 0 ) 0 . 5 3 2 6 ( 1 0 . 8 ) 0 . 2 4 2658 0 . 1976 0 . 1 4 2 5 0 . 1455 0 . 1 2 5 4 0 . 2 1 6 4 0 . 2 2 3 3 0 . 1 7 1 3 0 . 3 3 6 6 c o e f f i c i e n t s 3 . 0 5 8 1 ( 8 3 . 0 ) - . 4 5 3 3 ( 1 0 . 9 ) - . 3 9 6 8 ( 7 . 5 5 ) - . 5 4 8 9 ( 1 2 . 7 ) 0 . 0 0 2 4 ( 0 . 0 5 ) 0 . 0 2 8 2 ( 0 . 6 1 ) - . 2 0 7 5 ( 4 . 6 6 ) 0 . 4 4 2 6 ( 9 . 1 8 ) 0 . 8 4 2658 A L P H A S [ 1 ] [ 2 ] 0 . 2 1 2 9 0 . 2 0 8 7 0 . 1 3 5 3 0 . 1 3 2 3 0 . 1 4 3 1 0 . 1 4 0 0 0 . 1 2 3 0 0 . 1 2 0 3 0 . 2 1 3 4 0 . 2 0 9 1 0 . 2 1 9 0 0 . 2 1 4 7 0 . 1 7 3 0 0 . 1 6 9 4 0 . 3 3 1 4 0 . 3 2 5 8 n o t e : [ l ] A L P H A v a l u e s a r e c a l c u l a t e d a s ; A L P H A 1 = E X P ( I N T E R C E P T ) A L P H A k k = 2 . . 8 = E X P ( I n t e r c e p t + C o e f f i c i e n t ) [ 2 ] A L P H A v a l u e s a d j u s t e d a s d e s c r i b e d i n S e c t i o n A 1 . 3 2 [ 3 ] " t " v a l u e s i n b r a c k e t s T a b l e A 1 : 0 7 V A N C O U V E R : H o u s e h o l d A L P H A S 209 As e a r l i e r noted these estimated ALPHA values are derived using the demand for "new" housing services functional relationship but data for existing dwellings. As a result these estimates are biased. The nature of th i s bias can be evaluated by considering a si m p l i f i e d u t i l i t y function where zonal c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s are ignored and the price per unit of "housing" service i s set to Pj for a l l dwellings, (de Leeuw and Struyk (1975)). With these s i m p l i f i c a t i o n s , the utility-maximising quantity of "housing" services for "model" household " i " , Qj, i s given as: Yi Pj QJ = *[ALPHAi-GAMMA 1 *ALPHAi*(1-ALPHAi)*(1 . )] Pj PN' ... A1:06 The expenditure/income r a t i o for household " i " can thus be written as: Pj*Qj Pj = ALPHAi-GAMMA 1*ALPHAi*(1-ALPHAi)*(1 . ) Yi PN' . .. A1:07 This indicates that the estimated ALPHA values should be adjusted upward by an amount of GAMMA 1*ALPHAi*(1-ALPHAi)* (1-Pj/PN'). The f i n a l column in Figure A1:07 indicates the adjusted ALPHA values, calculated by assuming GAMMA1 = 0.75 and u t i l i z i n g the ra t i o for Pj/PN' calculated in deriving the 1971 "model" dwellings. (See Section A1.454: Hedonic Price indi c i e s for d e t a i l s of the calcu l a t i o n of the equivalent values for Pj and PN'). Since the amount of thi s adjustment is a function of the GAMMA1 value being employed in a simulation, the solution algorithm program performs th i s adjustment taking as input the Pj/PN' r a t i o . 210 F u r t h e r e x a m p l e s , i n d i c a t i n g t h e m a g n i t u d e o f t h e a d j u s t m e n t , a r e r e p o r t e d on a CMA b a s i s i n F i g u r e s A 3 : 0 8 . The s e c o n d p a r t o f t h i s s e c t i o n b r i e f l y d e t a i l s a s i d e - l i n e s t u d y t h a t e v a l u a t e s t h e s e n s i t i v i t y o f e x p e n d i t u r e - i n c o m e r a t i o s t o i n c o m e l e v e l s . I t i n v o l v e s t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f a l t e r n a t i v e l y s p e c i f i e d r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n s w h e r e t h e e x p e n d i t u r e - i n c o m e r a t i o i s a s s u m e d d e p e n d e n t on i n c o m e l e v e l s i n a d d i t i o n t o T Y P E g r o u p i n g . I t s h o u l d be n o t e d t h a t t h e n a t u r e o f t h e " m o d e l " i n c o m e s p e c i f i c a t i o n ( E q u a t i o n A 1 : 0 5 ) i m p l i c i t l y a s s u m e s t h a t t h e e x p e n d i t u r e - i n c o m e r a t i o d e c l i n e s w i t h r e g a r d s r e p o r t e d i n c o m e , w h i l e c o n s t a n t w i t h r e g a r d s " m o d e l " i n c o m e . T h i s a r i s e s f r o m t h e n a t u r e o f t h e " w e i g h t i n g " i n v o l v e d i n t h e " s m o o t h i n g " p r o c e s s . The f i r s t m o d i f i e d r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n e s t i m a t e d s i m p l y s t r a t i f i e s t h e h o u s e h o l d s i n t o f o u r i n c o m e g r o u p s b y i n t r o d u c i n g INCOME g r o u p b i n a r y d u m m i e s : R l o g ( ) = l o g ( A L P H A l ) + T Y P E dummies + DY2 + DY3 + DY4 Y i A 1 : 0 8 w h e r e , D Y 2 , D Y 3 , D Y 4 a r e b i n a r y dummies c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o INCOME g r o u p s . I n o r d e r t o o b t a i n u n i f o r m INCOME g r o u p i n g s , t h e b o u n d a r y p o i n t s w e r e s e t i n t e r m s o f t h e T Y P E mean i n c o m e , ( M Y t y p e ) , a t 0 . 7 5 * M Y t y p e , M Y t y p e a n d 1 . 2 5 * M Y t y p e , w i t h t h e i n t e r c e p t dummy v a r i a b l e s c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e t h r e e h i g h e s t i n c o m e g r o u p i n g s . The n e x t two f u n c t i o n a l f o r m s e s t i m a t e d i n v o l v e d s p e c i f y i n g A L P H A ( k ) a s a g e n e r a l f u n c t i o n o f " m o d e l " i n c o m e a s A L P H A i = a Y i * * x , o r a l t e r n a t i v e l y a s l o g ( A L P H A i ) = l o g ( a ) + x * l o g ( Y i ) w i t h a s u b s t i t u t i o n b e i n g made f o r l o g ( A L P H A l ) i n E q u a t i o n s A 1 : 0 4 . 21 1 T h e f i r s t o f t h e s e two s p e c i f i c a t i o n s r e s u l t s i n s h i f t s i n t h e f u n c t i o n by T Y P E ; t h e l a t t e r i n c o r p o r a t e s a d d i t i o n a l s t r u c t u r a l s h i f t s by INCOME g r o u p . The f i n a l f u n c t i o n a l f o r m e s t i m a t e d i n v o l v e s s p e c i f y i n g a c h a n g e i n t h e s t r u c t u r a l s h a p e o f t h e i n c o m e c o m p o n e n t , by INCOME g r o u p . T h i s c o r r e s p o n d s t o e s t i m a t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e e x p o n e n t s o f t h e i n c o m e f u n c t i o n f o r t h e f o u r i n c o m e g r o u p s . The e s t i m a t i n g e q u a t i o n i s o f t h e f o r m : R l o g ( ) = l o g ( a ) + T Y P E d u m m i e s + D Y k * l o g ( Y i ) Y i f o r k=1 . . . 4 8 : 4 The e x p r e s s i o n Y i i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t h e s e s p e c i f i c a t i o n s i s t h e i n d i v i d u a l h o u s e h o l d ' s " m o d e l " i n c o m e a n d a s w i t h t h e p r e v i o u s e q u a t i o n s , t h e s e e q u a t i o n s a r e e s t i m a t e d e m p l o y i n g a p e r m a n e n t i n c o m e e l a s t i c i t y o f 0 . 6 i n d e r i v i n g b o t h t h e e x p e n d i t u r e t o i n c o m e r a t i o a n d l o g a r i t h m i c f u n c t i o n o f i n c o m e . A s a n t i c i p a t e d , t h e " g o o d n e s s o f f i t " o f t h e r e g r e s s i o n m o d e l s i n c r e a s e d s i g n i f i c a n t l y w i t h t h e i n t r o d u c t i o n o f f i r s t l y t h e i n c o m e g r o u p s t r a t i f i c a t i o n a n d t h e n t h e d i r e c t s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f i n c o m e . An i n d i c a t i o n o f t h e v a r i a t i o n i s g i v e n by t h e r e p o r t e d " R 2 s " on t h e OLS r e g r e s s i o n e q u a t i o n s i n T a b l e A 1 : 0 8 . A d d i t i o n a l d e t a i l s on t h e " m o d e l 3 " r e g r e s s i o n s a r e r e p o r t e d i n A P P E N D I X : F i g u r e s A 3 : 0 9 ( b ) . 212 R 2 s f o r OLS e q u a t i o n s m o d e l 1 m o d e l 2 m o d e l 3 mode14 mode15 C a l g a r y 0 . 2 3 0 . 4 8 0 . 6 1 0 . 6 2 0 . 6 3 K i t c h e n e r 0 . 2 3 0 . 5 0 0 . 6 3 0 . 6 3 0 . 6 4 Q u e b e c C i t y 0 . 2 0 0 . 4 2 0 . 5 7 0 . 5 9 0 . 5 9 S t . J o h n ' s 0 . 0 7 0 . 2 6 0 . 4 7 0 . 5 0 0 . 5 0 S a s k a t o o n 0 . 2 2 0 . 3 9 0 . 4 9 0 . 5 1 0 . 5 1 S u d b u r y 0 . 1 7 0 . 3 8 0 . 5 0 0 . 5 1 0 . 5 1 V a n c o u v e r 0 . 2 4 0 . 4 9 0 . 6 0 0 . 6 0 0 . 6 0 W i n n i p e g 0 . 2 4 0 . 4 4 0 . 5 7 0 . 5 9 0 . 5 9 n o t e : m o d e l l ; l o g ( A L P H A 1 )+TYPE dummies m o d e l 2 ; l o g ( A L P H A 1 ) + ( T Y P E + " Y " g r o u p ) dummies m o d e l 3 ; l o g ( a ) + l o g ( Y i ) + T Y P E dummies m o d e l 4 ; l o g ( a ) + l o g ( Y i ) + ( T Y P E + " Y " g r o u p ) dummies m o d e l 5 ; l o g ( a ) + T Y P E d u m m i e s + ( " Y " g r o u p d u m m i e s * l o g ( Y i ) ) T a b l e A 1 : 0 8 E x p e n d i t u r e R a t i o s : R 2 s f o r O . L . S . E q u a t i o n s An e x a m p l e s e t o f r e s u l t s o b t a i n e d f o r V a n c o u v e r u n d e r " m o d e l 3 " a r e o u t l i n e d i n T a b l e A 1 : 0 9 ; c o l u m n s 1 a n d 2 f o r t h e O . L . S . a n d W . L . S . m o d e l s r e s p e c t i v e l y . T h e e x p o n e n t on t h e i n c o m e v a r i a b l e r a n g e s f r o m - 0 . 7 2 1 2 f o r S a s k a t o o n t o - 0 . 8 1 6 8 f o r C a l g a r y i n d i c a t i n g t h a t t h e e x p e n d i t u r e -i n c o m e r a t i o d e c l i n e s on a v e r a g e w i t h i n c o m e a t a r a t e s l i g h t l y l e s s t h a n a s a f u n c t i o n o f t h e r e c i p r o c a l . The r e p o r t e d " a t mean" R A T I O v a l u e s c o r r e s p o n d t o v a l u e s o b t a i n e d by s u b s t i t u t i n g t h e T Y P E g r o u p s mean i n c o m e s i n t o t h e e s t i m a t e d e q u a t i o n . G i v e n t h e s k e w e d n a t u r e o f t h e i n c o m e d i s t r i b u t i o n , ( m e a d i a n l e s s t h a n m e a n ) , t h e s e v a l u e s a s e x p e c t e d a r e l o w e r t h a n t h e c o n s t a n t by T Y P E A L P H A v a l u e s , c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o a d e c l i n i n g m a r g i n a l p r o p e n s i t y . The r e p o r t e d " l o w e s t " a n d " h i g h e s t " show t h e r a n g e o f t h e r e s u l t i n g R A T I O S by T Y P E . 213 r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s a n d A L P H A S R l o g ( ) = l o g ( a ) + l o g ( Y i ) Y i O . L . S . MODEL W. L . S . MODEL R A T I O S [ 1 ] c o e f f i c i e n t c o e f f i c i e n t a t mean l o w e s t h i g h e s t [ 2 ] CONSTANT ( T Y P E 1) 1 0 . 1 5 3 ( 6 8 . 1 ) 9 . 8 0 2 6 ( 6 8 . 2 ) 0 . 1 964 0 . 1 477 0 . 3488 DUMMY ( T Y P E 2) 0 . 0 3 4 2 ( 1 . 1 2 ) - . 0 3 8 2 ( 1 . 2 1 ) 0 . 1 271 0 . 0779 0 . 2666 DUMMY ( T Y P E 3) - . 0 5 1 1 (1 .41 ) - . 0 8 7 3 ( 2 . 2 3 ) 0 . 1 378 0 . 1 039 0 . 2283 DUMMY ( T Y P E 4) - . 0 3 7 1 ( 1 . 1 3 ) - . 0 9 2 7 ( 2 . 8 0 ) 0 . 1 1 40 0 . 0724 0 . 2523 DUMMY ( T Y P E 5) - . 0 2 5 7 ( 0 . 7 7 ) - . 0 8 8 9 ( 2 . 5 1 ) 0 . 1895 0 . 1131 0 . 3618 DUMMY ( T Y P E 6) 0 . 1 8 7 9 ( 0 . 5 7 ) - . 0 1 0 3 ' ( 3 . 5 8 ) 0 . 1 963 0 . 1 188 0 . 4596 DUMMY ( T Y P E 7) - . 0 9 0 1 ( 2 . 7 8 ) - . 1 1 6 9 ( 3 . 5 8 ) 0 . 1519 0 . 091 1 0 . 3981 DUMMY ( T Y P E 8) - . 0 3 4 9 ( 0 . 9 2 ) - . 1 2 3 0 ( 3 . 3 0 ) 0 . 2838 0 . 1 767 0 . 5968 L N INCOME - . 8 0 5 0 ( 4 8 . 8 ) - . 7 6 4 3 ( 4 7 . 7 ) R2 0 . 6 0 0 . 9 1 O B S E R V A T I O N S 2658 2658 n o t e : [ 1 ] A L P H A v a l u e s w e r e c a l c u l a t e d by t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m p r o g r a m by s u b s t i t u t i n g t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s " m o d e l " i n c o m e s . T h e s e a r e u n a d j u s t e d v a l u e s . [ 2 ] c a l c u l a t e d by s u b s t i t u t i n g T Y P E S mean i n c o m e . [ 3 ] " t " v a l u e s i n b r a c k e t s . T a b l e A 1 : 0 9 VANCOUVER : H o u s e h o l d I n c o m e - E x p e n d i t u r e R a t i o s , 214 An i n d i c a t i o n o f t h e s e n s i t i v i t y t o i n c o m e l e v e l o f t h e e x p e n d i t u r e - i n c o m e r a t i o s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e a l t e r n a t i v e e s t i m a t i n g e q u a t i o n s i s g i v e n i n T a b l e A 1 : 1 0 , w h e r e t h e r a n g e o f v a l u e s f o r V a n c o u v e r i s r e p o r t e d on a T Y P E b a s i s a c r o s s t h e a l t e r n a t i v e e q u a t i o n s . A L P H A S m o d e l 2 m o d e l 3 m o d e l 4 m o d e l 5 T Y P E l o w h i g h l o w h i g h l o w h i g h l o w h i g h 1 .21 29 . 1 544 . 3 3 3 8 . 1 477 . 3 4 8 8 . 1 5 5 5 . 3 5 2 2 . 1 550 . 3 5 2 2 2 . 1 353 . 0 9 6 0 . 2 0 7 6 . 0 7 7 9 . 2 6 6 6 .081 3 . 2 7 3 8 . 0 8 1 6 . 2 7 3 4 3 . 1 431 . 1 0 3 1 . 2 2 2 9 . 1 039 . 2 2 8 3 . 1 0 9 9 . 2 3 0 5 . 1 0 9 9 . 2 3 0 3 4 . 1 230 . 0 8 6 6 .1871 . 0 7 2 4 . 2 5 2 3 . 0 7 5 7 . 2 5 9 8 . 0 7 6 0 . 2 5 9 4 5 .21 34 . 1 392 . 3 0 0 8 . 1 1 3 1 . 3 6 1 8 . 1 1 67 . 3 6 6 0 . 1 1 67 . 3 6 5 9 6 . 2 1 9 0 . 1 491 . 3 2 2 3 . 1 188 . 4 5 9 6 . 1 2 3 3 . 4 7 3 6 . 1 233 . 4 7 3 4 7 . 1730 . 1 1 8 1 . 2 5 5 3 . 091 1 .3981 . 0 9 4 3 . 4 1 2 8 . 0 9 4 4 .41 23 8 . 3 3 1 4 . 2 1 0 8 . 4 5 5 6 . 1 7 6 7 . 5 9 6 8 . 1 8 3 1 . 6 0 8 3 . 1821 . 6 0 9 0 T a b l e A 1 : 1 0 V a n c o u v e r : A L P H A v a l u e r a n g e s A p r o b l e m h i g h l i g h t e d by s p e c i f y i n g t h e A L P H A S a s a f u n c t i o n o f " m o d e l " i n c o m e i s t h a t h o u s e h o l d s w i t h e x t r e m e l y l o w i n c o m e s , ( l e s s t h a n $ 1 , 0 0 0 p e r a n n u m ) , may h a v e a r e p o r t e d e x p e n d i t u r e t o i n c o m e r a t i o i n e x c e s s o f 100%. The m a i n r e a s o n f o r t h i s p r o b l e m i s t h a t r e p o r t e d i n c o m e s do n o t i n c l u d e w e l f a r e p a y m e n t s o r h o u s i n g s u b s i d i e s . The m a g n i t u d e o f t h i s i n c o m e p r o b l e m i s i n d i c a t e d i n T a b l e A 1 : 1 1 , w h e r e t h e r a n g e o f t h e a c t u a l r a t i o s c a l c u l a t e d f r o m r e p o r t e d e x p e n d i t u r e s a n d i n c o m e s i s i n d i c a t e d on a CMA b a s i s , a l o n g w i t h t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f h o u s e h o l d s w i t h r e p o r t e d r a t i o s i n e x c e s s o f 0 . 9 0 ( 9 0 % ) . o 215 CMA r a n g e o f a c t u a l R A T I O S h i g h e s t C a l g a r y K i t c h e n e r Q u e b e c C i t y S t . J o h n ' s S a s k a t o o n S u d b u r y V a n c o u v e r W i n n i p e g l o w e s t 0 . 0 0 8 7 0 . 0 0 8 1 0 . 0 0 3 4 0 . 0 0 5 1 0 . 0 0 7 7 0 . 0 0 3 8 0 . 0 0 3 2 0 . 0 0 9 6 35 , 15, 13, 129, 13, 14, 23 , H o u s e h o l d ' s w i t h R A T I O S i n e x c e s s o f 90% 1 4 . 2 number % 5 , 0 7 4 4 . 2 2 , 1 44 3 . 2 4 , 0 2 4 3 . 2 1 , 2 4 0 4 . 2 1 , 0 5 0 2 . 7 1 , 0 7 2 2 . 7 1 1 , 8 5 4 3 . 4 5 , 9 1 7 3 . 6 s o u r c e : SHU d a t a s e t . V a l u e s a d j u s t e d a t m e a n . T a b l e A 1 : 1 1 A C T U A L E x p e n d i t u r e - I n c o m e C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s by CMA T a b l e A 1 : 0 8 i n d i c a t e s t h a t on a v e r a g e o v e r 3% o f t h e h o u s e h o l d s r e p o r t e x c e s s i v e l y h i g h e x p e n d i t u r e t o i n c o m e r a t i o s . T h i s f a c t o r a d d s f u r t h e r t o t h e p r o b l e m s w i t h t h e e s t i m a t e d A L P H A p a r a m e t e r s . 216 A 1 . 4 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : COMPUTERIZED M A N I P U L A T I O N S The m a j o r i t y o f t h e d a t a m a n i p u l a t i o n i s p e r f o r m e d by t a i l o r e d u t i l i t y FORTRAN c o m p u t e r p r o g r a m s t h a t m a n i p u l a t e t h e two c e n s u s f i l e s , C M A 6 1 . I N P U T a n d C M A 7 1 . I N P U T , a n d t h e SHU d a t a s e t , C M A . S H U , i n t o i n p u t d a t a f o r t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m p r o g r a m " S I M O 1 . F O R T " . I n t h e f o l l o w i n g S e c t i o n t h e t e c h n i q u e s u s e d , t h e u n d e r l y i n g t h e o r e t i c a l i m p l i c a t i o n s a n d t h e m a n i p u l a t i o n s p e r f o r m e d a r e d e t a i l e d p r o g r a m by p r o g r a m . The two i n i t i a l S e c t i o n s c o v e r t h e p r o g r a m s d e v e l o p e d t o d e t e r m i n e t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f t h e " z o n e s " t h a t s p a t i a l l y s u b m a r k e t t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k a n d c a l c u l a t e z o n a l s t a t i s t i c s f o r b o t h 1961 a n d 1 9 7 1 . S u b s e q u e n t s e c t i o n s r e v i e w t h e t e c h n i q u e s u s e d t o c r e a t e t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s a n d " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s , r e s p e c t i v e l y . The f i n a l S e c t i o n o u t l i n e s t h e more c o m p l i c a t e d p r o c e s s e s i n v o l v e d i n g e n e r a t i n g t h e d a t a n e c e s s a r y f o r c a l i b r a t i n g t h e MODELS f o r a p a r t i c u l a r C M A ; t h e f i r s t p a r t d e t a i l s t h e d a t a g e n e r a t i o n f o r t h e "GAMMA" c a l i b r a t i o n w h i l e t h e s e c o n d c o n t a i n s t h e " B E T A " c a l i b r a t i o n p r o c e s s . E a c h s e c t i o n i s s t r u c t u r e d t o p r o v i d e a b r i e f o u t l i n e o f t h e p r o c e s s i n v o l v e d , a r e v i e w o f t h e c o m p u t a t i o n a l p r o c e s s a n d p e r t i n e n t d e t a i l s on how t h e p r o g r a m i s r u n . C o m p l e t e l i s t i n g s o f t h e FORTRAN s o u r c e c a r d s a r e c o n t a i n e d i n A P P E N D I X A 4 . 217 A 1 . 4 1 D E L I N E A T I O N OF Z O N E S : C l u s t e r i n g O u t l i n e d i n t h i s s e c t i o n i s t h e t e c h n i q u e u s e d t o d e l i n e a t e t h e z o n e s f o r a n u r b a n a r e a a n d t o g e n e r a t e t h e d a t a f i l e s u s e d f o r z o n a l i d e n t i f i c a t i o n i n t h e o t h e r u t i l i t y p r o g r a m s . T h i s h a s b e e n a c h i e v e d by u s i n g a UBC s y s t e m - d e p e n d e n t c l u s t e r i n g p r o g r a m t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e p r o g r a m " Z O N E . F O R T " . The " r e s i d e n t i a l " s e r v i c e s p r o v i d e d by a h o u s i n g u n i t a r e a c o m b i n a t i o n o f t h e " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e a c t u a l b u i l t s t r u c t u r e a n d t h o s e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e n e i g h b o u r h o o d i n w h i c h t h e u n i t i s l o c a t e d . T h e demand a n d s u p p l y e q u a t i o n s o f t h e s i m u l a t u i o n a n a l y s i s u s e t h e " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e i n t h e i r s p e c i f i c a t i o n . Q u a n t i t i e s o f " r e s i d e n t i a l " s e r v i c e s , n o t " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s a r e d i r e c t l y o b s e r v a b l e i n t h e m a r k e t a n d t h e r e f o r e t h e l a t t e r mus t be e s t i m a t e d . H o u s i n g s e r v i c e , b e i n g a l o c a t i o n - f r e e m e a s u r e o f t h e q u a n t i t i e s o f s e r v i c e s , c a n be c a l c u l a t e d f r o m o b s e r v e d r e s i d e n t i a l s e r v i c e s u s i n g a n e i g h b o u r h o o d A D J U S T O R . To o b t a i n s u c h A D J U S T O R s s p a t i a l a g g r e g a t i o n o f t h e h o u s i n g u n i t s i n t o s u i t a b l e z o n a l c l u s t e r s i s r e q u i r e d . A1 .411 O u t l i n e I n d e l i n e a t i n g s u c h z o n a l c l u s t e r s w i t h i n a m e t r o p o l i t a n h o u s i n g m a r k e t an i n c r e a s e i n t h e number o f z o n e s w i l l i n c r e a s e t h e s p a t i a l s e n s i t i v i t y o f t h e s i m u l a t i o n f r a m e w o r k . B u t i n i n c r e a s i n g t h e number o f z o n e s t h e number o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s p e r z o n e i s ' r e d u c e d . I n s o d o i n g , t h e a c c u r a c y o f t h e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e m a r k e t by t h e " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s i s r e d u c e d a s i m p o r t a n t " v a l u e " v a r i a t i o n s a r e o b s c u r e d . C o m p u t a t i o n a l e f f i c i e n c y r e q u i r e s a 218 t r a d e - o f f b e t w e e n s p a t i a l s e n s i t i v i t y , t h e number o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s p e r z o n e a n d t h e t o t a l number o f m o d e l d w e l l i n g s . W h i l e t h e U r b a n I n s t i t u t e i n t h e i r i m p l e m e n t a t i o n s r e s t r i c t e d t h e number o f z o n e s t o f o u r o r f i v e , t h e " s t a c k e d " a l l o c a t i o n a l g o r i t h m a l l o w s t h e e f f i c i e n t u s a g e o f t e n t o t w e l v e z o n e s . The f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s o u t l i n e t h e t e c h n i q u e e m p l o y e d i n s e l e c t i n g t h e z o n a l c o n f i g u r a t i o n s i n t h i s s t u d y a n d t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f d a t a f i l e s f o r s u b s e q u e n t u s e by o t h e r p r o g r a m s . H o u s i n g s e r v i c e s m u s t be i s o l a t e d f r o m r e s i d e n t i a l s e r v i c e s s i n c e t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n t r e a t s t h e s e s e r v i c e s s e p a r a t e l y f r o m t h o s e a t t a c h e d t o t h e n e i g h b o u r h o o d o r z o n a l a t t r i b u t e s . W i t h h o u s e h o l d u t i l i t y c o n s i d e r e d a s a f u n c t i o n o f a c c e s s t o e m p l o y m e n t o p p o r t u n i t i e s a n d n e i g h b o u r h o o d e x t e r n a l i t i e s , i n a d d i t i o n t o " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s , i t - f o l l o w s t h a t w i t h i n - z o n e h o m o g e n e i t y w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e s e f a c t o r s s h o u l d be t h e m a j o r c r i t e r i a f o r d e t e r m i n i n g z o n a l b o u n d a r i e s . D i s t a n c e i n t i m e (when a v a i l a b l e ) f r o m l o c a l s o u r c e s , o r a s a n a l t e r n a t i v e , t h e number o f m i l e s f r o m c e n t r e s o f e m p l o y m e n t e x p r e s s e d a s a n i n d e x , i s t h e m a j o r t r a v e l t i m e c r i t e r i o n i n d e t e r m i n i n g b o u n d a r i e s . S i n c e s u c h v a l u e s a r e e x o g e n o u s i n t h e m o d e l , p e r i o d - e n d v a l u e s c a n be u s e d w i t h o u t r a i s i n g t h e p r o b l e m o f a s i m u l t a n e o u s - r e l a t i o n s h i p b i a s . W i t h n e i g h b o u r h o o d c o n d i t i o n s , m a j o r p o l i t i c a l a n d p h y s i c a l b o u n d a r i e s , a n d a v e r a g e i n c o m e o r p r o p e r t y v a l u e p e r h o u s e h o l d a s a w e a l t h i n d i c a t o r a r e t h e t w o m a j o r c r i t e r i a . S i n c e t h e m o d e l i s a t t e m p t i n g t o e x p l a i n p r o p e r t y v a l u e s , p e r i o d - e n d v a l u e s c a n n o t be c o n s i d e r e d i n d e t e r m i n i n g b o u n d a r i e s . V a l u e s i n t h e i n i t i a l y e a r w i l l be u t i l i z e d i n s t e a d . On t h e o t h e r h a n d , t h e r e s t r i c t i o n d o e s n o t a p p l y t o i n f o r m a t i o n on p h y s i c a l a n d p o l i t i c a l b o u n d a r i e s . 219 I n t h e U r b a n I n s t i t u t e s t u d i e s , z o n e s a r e d e l i n e a t e d u s i n g p e r s o n a l j u d g e m e n t . T e n t a t i v e b o u n d a r i e s w e r e d r a w n by p l a c i n g p r i m a r y e m p h a s i s on t h e r a c i a l a n d r e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . A d j u s t m e n t s w e r e t h e n made f o r s h a r p d e p a r t u r e s f r o m t h e z o n a l a v e r a g e s o f t h e o t h e r c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . I n a few i n s t a n c e s , " p o c k e t s " w e r e f o u n d w i t h i n o t h e r w i s e h o m o g e n e o u s z o n e s a n d a z o n e was t h u s d e f i n e d t o i n c l u d e two n o n - c o n t i g u o u s p a r t s . 1 .412 C l u s t e r i n g T h i s s t u d y e m p l o y s c l u s t e r a n a l y s i s i n d e l i m i t i n g z o n e s . The c l u s t e r i n g " k e y s " a r e 1961 C e n s u s T r a c t r e n t s , i n c o m e s a n d h o u s i n g v a l u e s a s w e a l t h c r i t e r i a ; d i s t a n c e f r o m t h e c e n t r a l c i t y a s a n a c c e s s c r i t e r i o n . C l u s t e r a n a l y s i s i s a s i m p l e s t a t i s t i c a l p r o c e s s t h a t s o r t s i t e m s i n t o g r o u p s a c c o r d i n g t o t h e " k e y i n g " c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s s e l e c t e d . T h i s t e c h n i q u e h a s b e e n w i d e l y u s e d i n t h e b i o l o g i c a l s c i e n c e s , b u t s e l d o m i n t h e s o c i a l s c i e n c e s . H o w e v e r , a s i g n i f i c a n t s t u d y o f i t s a p p l i c a b i l i t y w i t h r e g a r d t o t h e c l u s t e r i n g o f c e n s u s t r a c t s was r e c e n t l y u n d e r t a k e n by P a t t e r s o n ( 1 9 7 2 ) . T h e r e a r e g e n e r a l l y two c a t e g o r i e s o f c l u s t e r i n g a l g o r i t h m s a v a i l a b l e : h i e r a r c h i c a l a n d n o n - h i e r a r c h i c a l . The f o r m e r p r o v i d e s a c o m p l e t e s e t o f c l u s t e r s , w i t h t h e number o f g r o u p s r a n g i n g f r o m one t o t h e number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s , w h i l e t h e l a t t e r r e q u i r e s t h e p r e - s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f t h e number o f g r o u p s . I n t h i s s t u d y t h e p r o g r a m U B C : C G R O U P , w r i t t e n f o r t h e C o m p u t i n g C e n t r e , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , was u s e d . The a l g o r i t h m e m p l o y e d i s t h a t o f W a r d ( 1 9 6 3 ) . T h i s h i e r a r c h i c a l - t y p e p r o g r a m d e f i n e s e a c h i t e m a s a g r o u p a n d t h e n r e d u c e s t h e s e g r o u p s b y a 220 s e r i e s o f s t e p d e c i s i o n s u n t i l a l l i t e m s h a v e b e e n c l a s s i f i e d i n t o one o r t h e o t h e r o f t w o g r o u p s . The h i e r a r c h y o f c l u s t e r s g e n e r a t e d a l l o w s t h e e x a m i n a t i o n o f z o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s f o r d i f f e r e n t n u m b e r s o f z o n e s . An a n t i c i p a t e d p r o b l e m w i t h t h i s t e c h n i q u e i s t h a t t h e c l u s t e r s may be v e r y d i v e r s e i n s i z e , b u t t h i s f a c t o r w i l l be c o m p e n s a t e d f o r when d e f i n i n g t h e " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s . W h i l e c l u s t e r i n g a l g o r i t h m s p r o v i d e no c r i t e r i a f o r s e l e c t i n g t h e o p t i m a l c o m b i n a t i o n , t h e CGROUP p r o g r a m p r o v i d e s a n " e r r o r v a l u e " , w h i c h i n t u r n g i v e s an i n d i c a t i o n o f " n a t u r a l " g r o u p s . The c r i t e r i o n f o r s e l e c t i o n o f a s p e c i f i c number o f g r o u p s i s d e p e n d e n t p r i m a r i l y on t h e d e s i r e d a p p l i c a t i o n . I n t h i s s t u d y , t h e number o f z o n e s m u s t l i e i n t h e r a n g e o f f i v e t o t w e l v e . S e l e c t i o n c a n be b a s e d on t h a t g r o u p a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e mos t n o t i c e a b l e e r r o r j ump w i t h i n t h i s r a n g e . I n t h e a n a l y s e s c o n d u c t e d t o d a t e , t h e number o f z o n e s h a s b e e n c o n s t r a i n e d t o f i v e t o s i m p l i f y b e t w e e n - c i t i e s c o m p a r i s o n s . I t s h o u l d be n o t e d t h a t c l u s t e r i n g i s u n d e r t a k e n w i t h o u t e n f o r c i n g a c o n t i g u i t y c o n s t r a i n t . S i n c e z o n e s do n o t h a v e t o be c o n t i n u o u s , p o c k e t s may be c r e a t e d . F i g u r e A 1 : 0 1 a n d F i g u r e A 1 : 0 2 s h o w s t h e c l u s t e r s a c h i e v e d f o r V a n c o u v e r a s s u m i n g f i v e a n d t e n z o n e s r e s p e c t i v e l y . The c h a n g e a p p a r e n t a s t h e number o f z o n e s i s r e d u c e d f r o m t e n t o f i v e i s s i m p l y t h e a g g r e g a t i o n o f p r e v i o u s l y c o n t i g u o u s z o n e s . A 1 . 4 1 3 Z o n a l A l l o c a t i o n s : " Z O N E . F O R T " A p r o g r a m , " Z O N E . F O R T " , h a s b e e n d e v e l o p e d t o c r e a t e d a t a f i l e s i n d i c a t i n g t o w h i c h z o n e i n d i v i d u a l c e n s u s t r a c t s h a v e b e e n a l l o c a t e d . A s i n p u t i t t a k e s e i t h e r t h e o u t p u t f r o m t h e CGROUP c l u s t e r i n g program or a c t u a l 1961 a l l o c a t i o n s . 222 F i g u r e A 1 : 0 1 V A N C O U V E R : C L U S T E R I N G (5 z o n e s ) 223 224 I n t h e f o r m e r c a s e b o t h 1961 a n d 1971 d a t a f i l e s w i l l be c r e a t e d ; i n t h e l a t t e r c a s e o n l y t h e 1971 d a t a f i l e i s c r e a t e d . I n a d d i t i o n t o c r e a t i n g t h e s e f i l e s , o u t p u t o f s e l e c t e d s t a t i s t i c s f o r e a c h z o n e c a n be o b t a i n e d . S u c h d a t a w i l l i n d i c a t e i n t e r - z o n a l h e t e r o g e n e i t y a n d i n t r a - z o n a l h o m o g e n e i t y . T h i s p r o g r a m h a s b e e n w r i t t e n i n M T S : F O R T R A N . I f t h e o u t p u t f r o m CGROUP i s b e i n g i n p u t , t h e p r o g r a m w i l l i n i t i a l l y c r e a t e C M A 6 1 . Z N ; t h e 1961 z o n a l a l l o c a t i o n f i l e . I t t h e n u s e s t h i s f i l e a s i n p u t f o r t h e s u b s e q u e n t c r e a t i o n o f t h e 1971 z o n a l a l l o c a t i o n f i l e , C M A 7 1 . Z N a l o n g w i t h C M A 7 1 . T A B . The l a t t e r i n d i c a t e s t h e c o r r e l a t i o n b e t w e e n 1961 a n d 1971 c e n s u s t r a c t s . The g e n e r a l s t r u c t u r e o f t h e p r o g r a m i s o u t l i n e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g f l o w c h a r t ( F i g u r e A 1 : 0 3 ) . I n t r o d u c t i o n C o m p u t a t i o n s i n i t i a l i z a t i o n c r e a t e C M A 6 1 . Z N i f n o t i n p u t c h e c k z o n a l a l l o c a t i o n s f o r c o m p l e t e n e s s I o u t p u t I c a l c u l a t e s e l e c t e d s t a t i s t i c s i f r e q u i r e d I o u t p u t I c r e a t e C M A 7 1 . Z N I s t o p F i g u r e A 1 : 0 3 F l o w C h a r t o f P r o g r a m S t r u c t u r e : " Z O N E . F O R T " 225 A1.414 Program Outline Input to the program "ZONE.FORT" i s obtained from several sources. The main input is from the system-dependent cluster analysis program which can be modified to match alternative c l u s t e r i n g program outputs. Additional input f i l e s are; 1. 1961 census tract numbers and selected data on CMA61.INPUT 2. 1971 census tract numbers from CMA71.INPUT 3. cross-tabs between 1961 and 1971 from CMA71.TAB Output includes a review of the clu s t e r i n g of the 1961 census t r a c t s , the maximum, minimum, mean and standard deviation of selected 1961 data and the zonal a l l o c a t i o n of f i l e s . The example output in t h i s description i s based on Vancouver, delineated into f i v e zones. A single control card i s required for "ZONE.FORT". 1. control and t i t l e card (2I1,I2,5A4) This card consists of four data f i e l d s . The f i r s t (column 1) indicates whether CMA61.ZN i s to be input or created, (0 i f input; 1 i f to be created from CGROUP output). The second f i e l d (column 2) indicates whether the calculations on the selected 1961 data are required, (0 i f not required; 1 i f required). F i e l d three (columns 3-4) indicates the number of zones to be created or spec i f i e d on CMA61.ZN. The fourth f i e l d (columns 5-24) i s for the t i t l e . This i s written as part of the f i r s t record on created zonal a l l o c a t i o n f i l e s for la t e r i d e n t i f i c a t i o n . If CMA61.ZN i s input, the program checks to ensure that the spec i f i e d number of zones corresponds to that on the f i r s t record of CMA61.ZN. 226 A 1 . 4 1 5 . C o m p u t a t i o n s I n c r e a t i n g C M A 6 1 . Z N , t h e t i t l e r e c o r d i s w r i t t e n ( e . g . " 1 9 6 1 : 0 5 t i t l e " ) , t h e n t h e c l u s t e r o u t p u t i s s i m p l y s c a n n e d f o r t h e c l u s t e r s i z e c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e r e q u i r e d number o f z o n e s . The c l u s t e r number f o r e a c h c e n s u s t r a c t i s t h e n t r a n s f e r e d t o t h e o u t p u t f i l e , one t r a c t p e r o u t p u t r e c o r d . The c r e a t e d f i l e i s t h e n r e w o u n d f o r u s e a s an i n p u t f i l e . N e x t t h e p r o g r a m l o a d s t h e 1961 a n d 1971 c e n s u s t r a c t n u m b e r s f r o m t h e r e s p e c t i v e INPUT f i l e s . A c h e c k i s made f o r u n a l l o c a t e d 1961 c e n s u s t r a c t s , w i t h t h e s e b e i n g a l l o c a t e d t o t h e n e x t h i g h e s t z o n e . T h a t i s , i f o n l y t h o s e t r a c t s a l l o c a t e d t o z o n e s 1-4 a r e i n p u t v i a C M A 6 1 . Z N , t h e r e m a i n i n g t r a c t s w i l l be a l l o c a t e d t o z o n e 5 . I f i n c r e a t i n g t h e a d d i t i o n a l z o n e t h e number o f z o n e s d o e s n o t c o r r e s p o n d t o t h e c o n t r o l n u m b e r , e x e c u t i o n i s s t o p p e d a f t e r t h e o u t p u t o f t h e z o n a l o r g a n i s a t i o n d a t a . T h i s o u t p u t i n c l u d e s a l i s t i n g o f t h e number o f t r a c t s a l l o c a t e d t o e a c h z o n e . * * * 1961 ZONAL O R G A N I Z A T I O N : V a n c o u v e r 05 * N U M B E R : Z O N E S 5 : C T ' S 120 : Z O N E : C . T . COUNT 1 19 2 35 3 5 4 48 5 13 The p r o g r a m t h e n t r a n s f e r s t o c a l c u l a t e t h e s t a t i s t i c s on t h e s e l e c t e d d a t a . The a c t u a l v a r i a b l e s on w h i c h c a l c u l a t i o n s a r e p r e f o r m e d a r e i n d i c a t e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g e x a m p l e o u t p u t . 227 (ZONE 1) M I N MAX MEAN S . D . ( ZONE 2) M I N MAX MEAN S . D . ( ZONE 3) M I N MAX MEAN S . D . (ZONE 4) M I N MAX MEAN S . D . ( ZONE 5) M I N MAX MEAN S . D . TOTAL M I N MAX MEAN S . D . % S _ D . 0 . 0 5 5 0 . 9 8 6 0 . 6 4 4 0 . 3 7 2 % S _ D . 0 . 1 69 0 . 9 6 5 0 . 6 6 1 0 . 2 5 5 % S _ D . 0 . 9 4 4 0 . 9 8 1 0 . 9 6 2 0 . 0 1 5 % S _ D . 0 . 2 4 4 1 . 0 0 0 0 . 8 5 0 0 . 1 42 % S _ D . 0 . 8 3 8 0 . 9 7 8 0 . 9 2 7 0 . 0 4 4 % S _ D . 0 . 0 5 5 1 . 0 0 0 0 . 7 7 5 0 . 2 4 6 %0_0. 0 . 0 7 0 0 . 9 4 6 0 . 6 2 0 0 . 3 3 9 %0_0. 0 . 0 8 5 0 . 8 7 6 0 . 6 1 7 0 . 2 3 9 %0_0. 0 . 9 0 5 0 . 9 6 4 0 . 9 2 7 0 . 0 2 2 %0_0. 0 . 0 0 . 9 4 4 0 . 7 5 7 0 . 176 %0_0. 0 . 6 5 0 0 . 8 6 9 0 . 7 8 3 0 . 0 7 7 %0_0. 0 . 0 0 . 9 6 4 0 . 7 0 4 0 . 2 3 2 %RENTAL 0 . 0 5 4 0 . 9 3 0 0 . 3 8 0 0 . 3 3 9 %RENTAL 0 . 124 0 . 9 1 5 0 . 3 8 3 0 . 2 3 9 %RENTAL 0 . 0 3 6 0 . 0 9 5 0 . 0 7 3 0 . 0 2 2 %RENTAL 0 . 0 5 6 1 . 0 0 0 0 . 2 4 3 0 . 1 76 %RENTAL 0 . 1 3 1 0 . 3 5 0 0 . 2 1 7 0 . 0 7 7 %RENTAL 0 . 0 3 6 1 . 0 0 0 0 . 2 9 6 0 . 2 3 2 %20_45 0 . 153 0 . 8 4 9 0 . 5 2 0 0 . 2 2 0 %20_45 0 . 0 7 1 0 . 7 2 8 0 . 3 8 9 0 . 144 %20_45 0 . 0 4 0 0 . 6 8 3 0 . 2 9 0 0 . 2 4 7 %20_45 0 . 0 0 . 6 8 8 0 . 2 5 9 0 . 1 30 %20_45 0 . 1 9 9 0 . 5 4 6 0 . 3 4 1 0 . 1 1 6 %20_45 0 . 0 0 . 8 4 9 0 . 3 4 8 0 . 179 %46_59 0 . 0 9 3 0 . 5 9 9 0 . 3 3 5 0 .1 52 %46_59 0 . 0 0 . 7 1 8 0 . 2 8 6 0 . 1 9 1 %46_59 0 . 0 8 5 0 . 8 9 0 0 . 6 0 8 0 . 3 1 2 %46_59 0 . 0 0 . 8 3 8 0 . 5 9 8 0 . 179 %46_59 0 . 3 6 4 0 . 7 3 0 0 . 5 4 7 0 . 124 %46_59 0 . 0 0 . 8 9 0 0 . 4 6 0 0 . 2 2 8 228 (ZONE 1 ) C O N D I T . BEDRMS A RENT A INCOME A V A L U E M I N MAX MEAN S . D . 0 . 7 3 5 0 . 9 3 2 0 . 8 4 2 0 . 0 4 9 1 . 0 8 3 2 . 9 8 6 2 . 3 4 8 0 . 7 3 9 6 6 . 9 8 6 1 2 5 . 9 6 0 1 0 0 . 9 5 5 1 3 . 9 9 2 4 5 . 1 1 4 7 6 . 1 8 1 6 3 . 6 6 5 1 0 . 0 5 5 15, 34 , 21 , 4, 227 455 066 423 (ZONE 2) C O N D I T . BEDRMS A RENT A INCOME A V A L U E M I N MAX MEAN S . D . 0 . 3 0 7 0 . 8 7 4 695 140 0, 0, 1 . 5 3 6 2 . 6 3 9 2 . 2 0 1 0 . 3 0 2 5 5 . 8 9 3 9 1 . 2 0 1 7 8 . 3 3 6 8 . 9 6 6 2 6 . 2 3 5 5 2 . 9 3 1 4 4 . 8 8 7 6 . 5 5 0 1 1 1 7 1 2 1 1 1 9 044 784 650 (ZONE 3) C O N D I T . BEDRMS A RENT A INCOME A V A L U E M I N MAX MEAN S . D . 0 0 0 0 908 990 946 036 2 . 9 8 2 4 . 0 1 6 3 . 3 0 0 0 . 4 2 8 121 191 148 26 698 566 841 073 7 3 . 4 5 3 9 3 . 8 5 0 8 6 . 0 1 6 8 . 1 56 2 0 . 0 9 2 2 9 . 6 0 6 2 6 . 8 9 7 3 . 8 6 2 (ZONE 4) C O N D I T . BEDRMS A RENT A INCOME A V A L U E M I N MAX MEAN S . D . (ZONE 5) 0 . 6 0 1 1 . 0 0 0 0 . 8 1 4 0 . 0 7 6 C O N D I T . 1 . 561 2 . 8 2 8 2 . 4 5 8 0 . 2 1 7 BEDRMS 35 , 1 05 , 8 2 , 14, 714 905 084 040 A RENT 4 5 . 5 6 7 61 . 9 5 9 5 3 . 5 2 9 3 . 6 3 1 A INCOME 0 . 0 0 0 1 7 . 2 9 9 1 3 . 8 0 2 2 . 7 1 0 A V A L U E M I N MAX MEAN S . D . 0 . 4 4 5 0 . 8 6 7 0 . 6 9 2 0 . 1 0 8 965 694 369 203 3 6 . 6 2 9 6 8 . 2 2 2 5 8 . 5 9 4 9 . 2 9 2 3 9 . 5 3 1 4 7 . 3 7 0 4 3 . 8 0 6 2 . 3 6 9 8 . 8 8 1 1 3 . 9 3 9 1 1 . 8 1 1 1 . 4 3 5 TOTAL C O N D I T . BEDRMS A RENT A INCOME A V A L U E M I N MAX MEAN S . D . 0 . 3 0 7 1 . 0 0 0 0 . 7 7 6 0 . 1 2 1 1 . 0 8 3 4 . 0 1 6 2 . 3 9 1 0 . 4 3 0 35 , 191 , 84 , 21 , 714 566 214 586 2 6 . 2 3 5 9 3 . 8 5 0 5 2 . 9 1 3 1 1 . 3 2 3 0 . 0 0 0 3 4 . 4 5 5 1 4 . 9 8 5 4 . 7 2 3 229 The zonal a l l o c a t i o n s of the 1971 census t r a c t s are d e r i v e d by matching c r o s s - t a b values from CMA71.TAB to the zonal a l l o c a t i o n s in CMA61.ZN. Any 1971 census t r a c t with a n u l l 1961 census t r a c t value (assumed to be annexed) i s assigned to a new zone; one higher than the s p e c i f i e d number. When 1971 "model" d w e l l i n g s are c r e a t e d (see S e c t i o n : A1.45 C a l i b r a t i o n by S i m u l a t i o n Data) t h i s zone of annexed t r a c t s i s assigned to a nominated e x i s t i n g zone. Any 1971 t r a c t not i n c l u d e d i n CMA71.TAB i s i n d i c a t e d as not being a s s i g n e d and w i l l be r e j e c t e d i n the subsequent u t i l i t y programs that employ CMA71.ZN. A f t e r the a l l o c a t i o n s have been made, the f i l e t i t l e l i n e on CMA71.ZN i s w r i t t e n , f o l l o w e d by one r e c o r d f o r each t r a c t . 230 A 1 . 4 2 NEW CONSTRUCTION a n d ZONAL C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S : " C Z O N E . F O R T " O u t l i n e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n i s t h e c o m p u t e r p r o g r a m " C Z O N E . F O R T " w h i c h r e v i e w s a c t u a l c o n s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t y o v e r t h e d e c a d e 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 7 1 a n d g e n e r a t e s t h e a v e r a g e z o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s f o r e a c h o f t h e i n i t i a l z o n e s t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e a r t i f i c i a l " z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n " . C a l c u l a t e d by z o n e f o r i n p u t t o t h e s i m u l a t i o n p r o g r a m , " S I M O 1 . F O R T " , a r e e s t i m a t e s o f t h e " r e l a t i v e " w e a l t h o f t h e z o n e a n d a n a c c e s s i b i l i t y i n d e x . The u s e o f a n a r t i f i c i a l z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n , r a t h e r t h a n d i s t r i b u t i n g t h e new c o n s t r u c t i o n t h r o u g h o u t a m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a , f o l l o w s t h e t e c h n i q u e e m p l o y e d by t h e U . I . A p a r t f r o m t h e o b v i o u s s i m p l i f i c a t i o n a c h i e v e d i n t h e f o r m u l a t i o n o f t h e s i m u l a t i o n a l g o r i t h m , t h e i r j u s t i f i c a t i o n f o r t h e u s e o f t h i s d e v i c e i s b a s e d on t h e o b s e r v a t i o n t h a t many new d w e l l i n g s a r e l o c a t e d i n r e c e n t l y d e v e l o p e d s u b u r b a n a r e a s w h i c h t e n d t o h a v e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s d i f f e r e n t f r o m o l d e r s u b u r b s a n d e s p e c i a l l y f r o m c e n t r a l c i t i e s , (de L e e u w a n d S t r u y k ( 1 9 7 5 , p 7 4 ) ) . The o u t p u t f r o m t h i s p r o g r a m c o n s i s t s o f a b r e a k - d o w n by c e n s u s t r a c t o f a c t u a l c o n s t r u c t i o n , a l l o w i n g c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e r e a s o n a b l e n e s s o f t h i s a s s u m p t i o n . I n a d d i t i o n , t h i s p r o g r a m h a s b e e n s t r u c t u r e d t o a l l o w s i m p l e c o n v e r s i o n t o p r o v i d e d a t a n e c e s s s a r y f o r a s i m u l a t i o n r o u t i n e t h a t c a n d i s t r i b u t e new c o n s t r u c t i o n i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h t h e a c t u a l p a t t e r n s . The p r o g r a m i s w r i t t e n i n M T S : F O R T R A N u t i l i z i n g o n l y I B M l i b r a r y f u n c t i o n s , m a k i n g i t s u i t a b l e f o r I B M s y s t e m u s a g e i n b a t c h m o d e . I t i s s t r u c t u r e d t o c r o s s - t a b b e t w e e n e q u i v a l e n t 1961 a n d 1971 c e n s u s t r a c t s , t h u s a l l o w i n g t h e c a l c u l a t i o n on a z o n a l b a s i s o f e q u i v a l e n t 1961 a n d 1971 c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . 231 A 1 . 4 1 2 G e n e r a l O u t l i n e I n p u t t o t h i s p r o g r a m i s d r a w n f r o m f i v e s o u r c e s ; 1. 1961 c e n s u s d a t a f r o m t h e f i l e C M A 6 1 . I N P U T 2 . 1971 c e n s u s d a t a f r o m t h e f i l e C M A 7 1 . I N P U T 3 . 1961 z o n a l a l l o c a t i o n o f c e n s u s t r a c t s f r o m C M A 6 1 . Z N 4 . 1971 z o n a l a l l o c a t i o n o f c e n s u s t r a c t s f r o m C M A 7 1 . Z N 5 . c r o s s - t a b s b e t w e e n 1961 a n d 1971 f r o m f i l e C M A 7 1 . T A B O u t p u t c o n s i s t s o f d i s t r i b u t i o n s by c e n s u s t r a c t o f c o n s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t y a n d t h e c a l c u l a t e d c o n t r i b u t i o n o f e a c h t r a c t t o t h e z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n . I n a d d i t i o n , f o r e a c h z o n e t h e r e q u i r e d i n p u t f o r t h e s i m u l a t i o n p r o g r a m , " S I M O 1 . F O R T " , may be w r i t t e n t o f i l e o r p u n c h e d on c a r d s . T h i s d e s c r i p t i o n e m p l o y s a s e t o f c o m p u t a t i o n s b a s e d on V a n c o u v e r d a t a a s an e x a m p l e . A 1 . 4 2 2 I n p u t a n d I n i t i a l i z a t i o n Two p r o g r a m c o n t r o l c a r d s a r e r e q u i r e d . 1. c o n t r o l a n d t i t l e c a r d ( 2 X , I 2 , 5 A 4 ) 2 . t h e r e q u i r e d number o f 1971 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s ( 1 3 ) T h e f i r s t c a r d c o n s i s t s o f t h r e e d a t a f i e l d s ; t h e f i r s t ( c o l u m n s 1-2) i s b l a n k , t h e s e c o n d ( c o l u m n s 3 - 4 ) c o n t a i n s t h e number o f z o n e s , a n d t h e t h i r d ( c o l u m n s 5 - 2 4 ) i s t h e t i t l e . On l o a d i n g t h e t i t l e c a r d , t h e p r o g r a m c h e c k s t o e n s u r e t h a t t h e number o f z o n e s c o r r e s p o n d s t o t h a t s p e c i f i e d on C M A 6 1 . Z N a n d C M A 7 1 . Z N . An e r r o r s t o p s e x e c u t i o n . W i t h t h e s e c o n d c a r d , one f i e l d ( c o l u m n s 1 - 3 ) , i s u s e d i n c a l c u l a t i n g t h e e q u i v a l e n t r e q u i r e d number o f 1961 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s a f t e r a d j u s t m e n t s a r e made f o r a n n e x e d z o n e s . 232 A 1 . 4 2 3 Zone o f New C o n s t r u c t i o n The d i s t r i b u t i o n o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n d u r i n g t h e 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 7 1 d e c a d e i s c a l c u l a t e d f r o m t h e 1971 c e n s u s d a t a ; d i s t r i b u t i o n o f d w e l l i n g s b y a g e . T h o s e d w e l l i n g s c o n s t r u c t e d i n t h e p e r i o d s 1 9 6 1 -1 9 6 5 , 1 9 6 6 - 1 9 7 0 a n d i n 1971 a r e summed t o g i v e t h e number o f new d w e l l i n g s . The p e r c e n t a g e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n i s c a l c u l a t e d by c e n s u s t r a c t i n t e r m s o f t h e t r a c t ' s t o t a l s t o c k a n d t h e C M A ' s t o t a l new s t o c k . E q u i v a l e n t s t a t i s i t i c s a r e a l s o d e r i v e d by z o n e . To c a l c u l a t e t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n 1961 d a t a on R E N T , I N C O M E , V A L U E a n d A C C E S S a r e . o b t a i n e d f r o m C M A 6 1 . I N P U T , u s i n g C M A 7 1 . T A B t o c r o s s - t a b f o r t h e e q u i v a l e n t 1961 c e n s u s t r a c t . A n n e x e d 1971 t r a c t s a r e a s s i g n e d t h e C M A ' s mean v a l u e f o r R E N T , INCOME a n d V A L U E , a n d t h e maxiumum v a l u e f o r A C C E S S . The c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n a r e t a k e n a s t h e w e i g h t e d sum o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l t r a c t ' s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , t h e w e i g h t i n g b e i n g t h e t r a c t ' s p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e C M A ' s new s t o c k . The d e t a i l e d c a l c u l a t i o n s a r e o u t p u t by 1971 c e n s u s t r a c t - t h e e q u i v a l e n t 1961 t r a c t b e i n g i n d i c a t e d - g r o u p e d by z o n a l a g g r e g a t i o n , f o l l o w e d by a summary f o r t h e CMA S e l e c t e d d a t a d r a w n f r o m t h e s e o u t p u t s a r e p r e s e n t e d on a CMA b a s i s i n F i g u r e s A 3 : 0 1 f o r t h e e i g h t C M A s . F o r t h e . e i g h t CMAs t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f new d w e l l i n g s i n t h e s t o c k a t d e c a d e - e n d r a n g e d f r o m a l o w o f 25 .2% f o r W i n n i p e g t o a h i g h o f 39 .7% f o r C a l g a r y . I n t h e m a j o r i t y o f t h e CMAs new c o n s t r u c t i o n i s u n i f o r m l y d i s t r i b u t e d a c r o s s a l l s i x z o n e s . The e x c e p t i o n i s C a l g a r y w h e r e t h e a n n e x e d t r a c t s a c c o u n t f o r a h i g h e r t h a n a v e r a g e l e v e l o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n . E x a m p l e o u t p u t f o r a s i n g l e z o n e i s a s f o l l o w s . 233 * * * D I S T R I B U T I O N o f NEW CONSTRUCTION d u r i n g D E C A D E : V a n c o u v e r 05 ( Z o n e 3) % CMA t r a c t % NEW s t o c k new RENT INCOME V A L U E A C C E S S 10 4 6 . 1 0 . 822 1 . 1 2 4 a c t u a l 7 1 2 2 5 . 1 8 1 3 9 . 5 0 4 7 6 . 3 8 . ( 44 ) a c t u a l 6 1 1 9 2 . 4 3 4 8 . 2 7 9 4 8 . 3 8 . w e i g h t e d 2 . 1 53 4 8 . 8 7 1 3 1 4 . 2 0 . 42714 20 2 0 . 0 0 . 188 0 . 1 1 2 a c t u a l 7 1 2 4 0 . 2 1 2 2 6 . 4 8 4 4 1 . 3 2 . ( 34 ) a c t u a l 6 1 1 4 8 . 3 6 5 9 . 2 8 7 9 1 . 3 2 . w e i g h t e d 0 . 165 4 . 0 8 2 3 2 . 1 0 . 03570 21 2 . 8 0 . 362 0 . 0 3 0 a c t u a l 7 1 1 5 0 . 2 7 2 8 9 . 5582 '9 . 2 7 . ( 53) a c t u a l 6 1 1 2 2 . 4 3 8 6 . 2 9 6 0 6 . 2 7 . w e i g h t e d 0 . 0 3 6 1 .301 8 . 8 0 . 00801 1 1 7 2 7 . 7 0 . 470 0 . 3 8 6 a c t u a l 7 1 1 9 5 . 1 5 1 9 7 . 3 7 9 5 9 . 4 9 . (151 ) a c t u a l 6 1 1 3 7 . 5 7 1 9 . 2 0 0 9 2 . 4 9 . w e i g h t e d 0 . 5 2 7 2 2 . 0 5 8 7 7 . 5 0 . 18898 1 20 3 6 . 2 0 . 315 0 . 3 3 8 a c t u a l 7 1 2 8 5 . 1 5 8 9 7 . 3 8 0 4 4 . 4 9 . (151 ) a c t u a l 6 1 1 3 7 . 571 9 . 2 0 0 9 2 . 4 9 . w e i g h t e d 0 . 4 6 2 1 9 . 3 3 7 6 7 . 9 0 . 16567 121 5 . 9 0 . 398 0 . 0 6 9 a c t u a l 7 1 2 3 0 . 1 5 5 6 9 . 3 4 8 1 1 . 4 9 . ( 1 5 1 ) a c t u a l 6 1 1 3 7 . 5 7 1 9 . 2 0 0 9 2 . 4 9 . w e i g h t e d 0 . 0 9 5 3 . 9 6 9 1 3 . 9 0 . 03401 122 5 0 . 8 0 . 184 0 . 2 7 7 a c t u a l 7 1 2 1 5 . 1 3 8 5 9 . 3 8 8 6 2 . 4 9 . (151 ) a c t u a l 6 1 1 3 7 . 5 7 1 9 . 2 0 0 9 2 . 4 9 . w e i g h t e d 0 . 3 7 8 1 5 . 8 3 3 5 5 . 6 0 . 1 3565 1 34 2 8 . 4 0 . 378 0 . 3 1 8 a c t u a l 7 1 1 9 5 . 1 9 4 6 6 . 4 6 5 8 4 . 4 3 . (131 ) a c t u a l 6 1 1 4 7 . 5 5 7 6 . 2 8 0 4 9 . 4 3 . w e i g h t e d 0 . 4 6 7 1 7 . 7 3 5 8 9 . 2 0 . 13677 1 35 2 9 . 3 0 . 479 0 . 4 1 6 a c t u a l 7 1 2 5 0 . 2 2 6 7 3 . 5 3 2 1 4 . 4 3 . (131 ) a c t u a l 6 1 1 4 7 . 5 5 7 6 . 2 8 0 4 9 . 4 3 . w e i g h t e d 0 . 6 1 0 2 3 . 1 7 6 1 1 6 . 6 0 . 17872 TOTAL 2 8 . 8 3 . 596 3 . 0 6 9 a c t u a l 7 1 2 2 0 . 1 8 8 8 0 . 4 5 8 0 9 . 4 2 . a c t u a l 6 1 1 5 1 . 51 3 0 . 2 5 1 9 5 . 4 2 . w e i g h t e d 4 . 8 9 2 1 5 6 . 4 7 7 5 . 8 1 .31 T o t a l D w e l l i n g s i n ZONE :61 8 8 5 9 . T o t a l D w e l l i n g s i n ZONE :71 1 2 4 2 5 . B u i l t a s o f 1961 8 8 4 8 . B u i l t a f t e r 1961 3 5 7 7 . n o t e : The w e i g h t e d v a l u e s a r e t h e 1961 c o n t r i b u t i o n s t o t h e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n " . " z o n e 234 * * * D I S T R I B U T I O N o f NEW CONSTRUCTION d u r i n g D E C A D E : V a n c o u v e r 05 TOTAL number o f D W E L L I N G S : 3 4 5 5 3 0 . TOTAL number o f NEW D W E L L I N G S : 1 1 6 5 4 2 . ( T o t a l CMA) % CMA Zone % NEW s t o c k new RENT INCOME V A L U E A C C E S S 1 3 4 . 4 1 7 . 716 1 8 . 082 a c t u a l 7 1 1 5 0 . 1 0 5 7 2 . 3 4 9 7 9 . 2 6 . a c t u a l 6 1 1 0 0 . 3 6 3 3 . 2 1 0 6 7 . 2 6 . w e i g h t e d 1 7 . 7 5 6 621 . 3 3 9 1 2 . 0 3 . 7 7 2 2 0 . 8 2 5 . 953 1 6 . 010 a c t u a l 7 1 1 1 4 . 8221 . 2 5 2 6 7 . 2 9 . a c t u a l 6 1 7 9 . 31 6 9 . 1 2 8 7 7 . 2 9 . w e i g h t e d 1 2 . 5 9 8 4 9 6 . 6 2 0 7 0 . 3 4 . 6 6 3 2 8 . 8 3 . 596 3 . 069 a c t u a l 7 1 2 2 0 . 1 8 8 8 0 . 4 5 8 0 9 . 4 2 . a c t u a l 6 1 1 5 1 . 51 3 0 . 2 5 1 9 5 . 4 2 . we i g h t e d 4 . 8 9 2 1 5 6 . 4 7 7 5 . 8 1.31 4 4 0 . 6 3 9 . 031 4 6 . 990 a c t u a l 7 1 1 3 6 . 1 0 2 4 1 . 2 7 8 2 9 . 81 . a c t u a l 6 1 8 3 . 4 0 2 7 . 1 4 2 5 0 . 81 . w e i g h t e d 3 8 . 9 8 4 1 8 9 5 . 1 6 7 0 4 . 4 4 0 . 6 2 5 3 9 . 1 9 . 103 1 0 . 541 a c t u a l 7 1 1 1 8 . 9 4 1 0 . 2 6 7 8 6 . 1 5 3 . a c t u a l 6 1 5 8 . 2 4 9 6 . 1 2 1 6 6 . 1 5 3 . w e i g h t e d 5 . 8 9 2 2 6 4 . 8 1 3 1 0 . 9 1 5 . 8 4 A 3 8 . 9 4 . 600 5 . 310 a c t u a l 7 1 1 0 2 . 8 5 1 6 . 2 5 4 2 4 . 2 2 0 . a c t u a l 6 1 8 4 . 3 6 2 3 . 1 4 9 8 5 . 2 2 0 . w e i g h t e d 4 . 4 7 2 1 9 2 . 4 7 9 5 . 7 1 1 . 6 8 TOTAL 3 3 . 7 1 . 000 1 . 000 a c t u a l 7 1 1 3 3 . 9931 . 28871 . 6 9 . a c t u a l 6 1 8 5 . 3 6 1 6 . 1 5 3 3 9 . 6 9 . w e i g h t e d 8 4 . 5 9 4 3 6 2 6 . 5 1 5 5 6 8 . 9 7 7 . 8 8 n o t e : Zone " A " i s t h e z o n e o f a n n e x e d t r a c t s . T h e f i n a l o u t p u t f r o m t h i s s e c t i o n o f t h e p r o g r a m i s a d a t a s e t c o n t a i n i n g t h e z o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . A r e c o r d c o n t a i n i n g t h e i d e n t i f i c a t i o n c o d e , t h e a v e r a g e i n c o m e a n d t h e a v e r a g e a c c e s s v a l u e f o r e a c h z o n e , p l u s an a d d i t i o n a l r e c o r d f o r t h e z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n , a r e w r i t t e n t o f i l e o r a l t e r n a t i v e l y p u n c h e d on c a r d s . The a v e r a g e i n c o m e v a l u e i s t h e 1971 mean w h i l e t h e a c c e s s v a l u e i s t h e 1961 m e a n ; i n t h e c a s e o f t h e " z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n " t h e y a r e t h e w e i g h t e d m e a n s . 235 A l i s t i n g o f t h e d a t a o u t p u t t o f i l e i s a s f o l l o w s . Zone " 6 " i s t h e " z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n " . * * * ZONAL DATA WRITTEN t o F I L E . V a n c o u v e r 05 40 110572 26 40 2 8221 29 40 3 1 8 8 8 0 42 40 4 1 0 0 6 0 96 40 5 9410 153 40 6 9931 69 z o n a l p a r a m e t e r s A 1 . 4 2 4 D i s t r i b u t i o n o f " M o d e l " D w e l l i n g s The f i n a l s e t o f c o m p u t a t i o n s p e r f o r m e d by t h i s p r o g r a m i n v o l v e s e s t i m a t i n g t h e r e q u i r e d number o f 1961 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s t h a t c o r r e s p o n d s t o t h e d e c a d e - e n d number b e i n g e m p l o y e d i n t h e s i m u l a t i o n s . A p r o b l e m a r i s e s i n a s m u c h a s t h e m a j o r i t y o f t h e CMAs h a v e u n d e r g o n e a n n e x a t i o n d u r i n g t h e d e c a d e , w h i c h means t h a t t h e 1971 d w e l l i n g t o t a l i n c l u d e s p r e - d e c a d e s t o c k n o t r e p r e s e n t e d i n 1961 t o t a l s on C M A 6 1 . I N P U T . T o c o u n t e r t h i s t h e 1961 number o f d w e l l i n g s i s a r t i f i c i a l l y i n f l a t e d when e s t i m a t i n g t h e number o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s . W h i l e s u c h a n a d j u s t m e n t c a n be made f o r c o m p l e t e l y a n n e x e d t r a c t s , t h e d a t a s e t s a r e t o o a g g r e g a t e d t o a d j u s t f o r p a r t i a l l y a n n e x e d t r a c t s a n d t h e t o t a l a d j u s t e d 1961 d w e l l i n g s may s t i l l u n d e r e s t i m a t e t h e t r u e a d j u s t e d t o t a l f o r some C M A s . To c a l c u l a t e t h e a d j u s t e d t o t a l , t h e r a t i o o f p r e - 1 9 6 1 d w e l l i n g s e x i s t i n g i n 1971 f o r t h e u n a n n e x e d t r a c t s t o t h e t o t a l 1961 d w e l l i n g s f r o m C M A 6 1 . I N P U T i s c a l c u l a t e d . F r o m C M A 7 1 . I N P U T , t h e number o f p r e - 1 9 6 1 d w e l l i n g s e x i s t i n g i n 1971 f o r a l l t r a c t s i s t h e n d i v i d e d by t h i s r a t i o t o y i e l d t h e 1961 t o t a l a d j u s t e d f o r a n n e x a t i o n . The r e q u i r e d number o f 1961 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s i s t h e n c a l c u l a t e d by d i v i d i n g t h i s t o t a l by t h e 1971 r a t i o o f a c t u a l d w e l l i n g s p e r " m o d e l " . An e x a m p l e o f t h i s c a l c u l a t i o n f o r 2 3 6 V a n c o u v e r i s a s f o l l o w s . S i m i l a r d e t a i l s f o r t h e CMAs a r e g i v e n i n F i g u r e s A 3 : 0 4 . * * * NUMBER o f " M O D E L " DWELLINGS 1971 D W E L L I N G S : T o t a l 3 4 5 5 3 0 . : New 1 1 6 5 4 2 . 1961 D W E L L I N G S : T o t a l 2 2 8 3 9 2 . : R A T I O Of E X I S T I N G U N A N N E X E D / T O T A L 9 6 . 0 % : .TOTAL 1961 E X I S T I N G i n 1971 2 2 8 9 8 8 . : TOTAL 1961 a d j u s t e d f o r ANNEXED 2 3 8 5 0 2 . " M O D E L " DWELLINGS 1971 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s 100 R a t i o A C T U A L / " m o d e l " 3455 1961 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s 69 237 A 1 . 4 3 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : " M o d e l " H o u s e h o l d s : " H H 1 . F O R T " The c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s a r e d e r i v e d f r o m t h e 1974 S u r v e y o f H o u s i n g U n i t s d a t a . T h e s e d a t a a r e u s e d t o i d e n t i f y t h e T Y P E g r o u p i n g o f t h e i n d i v i d u a l h o u s e h o l d s a n d t o c a l c u l a t e t h e r e l a t i v e i n c o m e d i s t r i b u t i o n s . The s i m u l a t i o n p r o g r a m h a s t h e c a p a b i l i t y t o h a n d l e u p t o t e n d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f h o u s e h o l d s w h i c h may be d i s t i n g u i s h e d i n t e r m s o f t h e i r p r e f e r e n c e s f o r c o n s u m i n g h o u s i n g v i s a v i s o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s . I n t h e O R I G I N A L MODEL, e i g h t s u c h h o u s e h o l d T Y P E s h a v e b e e n d e s i g n a t e d a s f o l l o w s : GROUP 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 H e a d ' s a g e S p o u s e C h i l d r e n <30 Y / N Y e s 3 0 - 6 4 <30 Y / N Y e s Y e s No 3 0 - 6 4 65+ Y e s Y e s No Y / N <30 No No 3 0 - 6 4 65+ No No No Y / N A r e s t r i c t i o n i s p l a c e d on t h e number o f h o u s e h o l d T Y P E s , a s e a c h m a r g i n a l i n c r e a s e i n t h e number o f t y p e g r o u p s d e c r e a s e s t h e number o f " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s p e r t y p e g r o u p . The r e s u l t a n t s t r e t c h i n g o f t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s a c r o s s a t y p e g r o u p ' s i n c o m e c o n t i n u u m r e d u c e s t h e a c c u r a c y o f t h e i m p o r t a n t i n c o m e p a r a m e t e r . A t r a d e - o f f b e t w e e n t y p e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n a n d " i n c o m e " a c c u r a c y h a s t o be made , g i v e n t h e c o n s t r a i n t on t h e t o t a l number o f " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s f e a s a b l e t o h a n d l e . The p r o g r a m " H H 1 . F O R T " h a s b e e n d e v e l o p e d t o g e n e r a t e t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s f r o m t h e h o u s e h o l d c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . A 1 . 4 3 1 G e n e r a l O u t l i n e The m a i n d a t a i n p u t f o r t h i s p r o g r a m i s d e r i v e d f r o m t h e f i l e C M A . S H U , w i t h a d d i t i o n a l i n p u t f r o m t h e c o n t r o l d e c k . O u t p u t 238 c o n s i s t s o f an o v e r a l l i n c o m e p r o f i l e i n d i c a t i n g t h e s a m p l e d i s t r i b u t i o n by T Y P E i n c o m e c o n t i n u u m s a n d a r e v i e w o f t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , t o g e t h e r w i t h d a t a r e c o r d s f o r e a c h i n d i v i d u a l " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d a n d h o u s e h o l d T Y P E f o r i n p u t t o t h e s i m u l a t i o n p r o g r a m . A 1 . 4 3 2 I n p u t T h r e e p r o g r a m c o n t r o l c a r d s a r e r e q u i r e d . 1. c o n t r o l a n d t i t l e c a r d ( I 2 , 2 X , 5 A 4 ) 2 . i n c o m e d e f l a t o r s t o a d j u s t f r o m 1974 t o 1971 i n c o m e ( 8 F 5 4 ) 3 . t h e r e q u i r e d t o t a l number o f " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s ( 1 3 ) , o r t h e r e q u i r e d number o f " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s p e r t y p e ( 1 0 1 3 ) The c o n t r o l a n d t i t l e c a r d c o n s i s t s o f t h r e e d a t a f i e l d s ; t h e f i r s t f i e l d ( c o l u m n s 1-2) i n d i c a t e s w h e t h e r o r n o t t h e p r o g r a m f o r c e s t h e f i t t i n g o f t h e r e q u i r e d number o f " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s . The s e c o n d , ( c o l u m n s 3 - 4 ) i s b l a n k a n d t h e t h i r d ( c o l u m n s 5 - 2 4 ) i s f o r t h e t i t l e . I n f i e l d 1, a " 0 0 " v a l u e i n d i c a t e s a r e q u i r e d n u m b e r ; a " 0 1 " v a l u e i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e p r o g r a m i s t o s e l e c t t h e b e s t f i t a b o u t t h e i n p u t v a l u e on c a r d 3 . I f f i e l d 2 on c a r d 3 i s n o n - z e r o t h e p r o g r a m a s s u m e s a " 0 0 " v a l u e . The i n c o m e d e f l a t o r s c a n be l o a d e d f o r e a c h i n d i v i d u a l h o u s e h o l d T Y P E , o r a s i n g l e d e f l a t o r f o r a l l t y p e s . The d e f l a t o r s ' d a t a c a r d c o n s i s t s o f t e n f i e l d s e a c h f i v e c o l u m n s w i d e , c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e maximum o f t e n h o u s e h o l d t y p e s . The v a l u e f o r t h e d e f l a t o r s m u s t l i e i n t h e r a n g e 0 . 5 t o 1 . 0 . A s i n g l e v a l u e i n f i e l d one i s t a k e n a s a common d e f l a t o r i f a l l o t h e r f i e l d s a r e z e r o o r b l a n k . C a r d 3 h a s a t o t a l o f t e n f i e l d s . I f f i e l d one i s b l a n k o r s e t t o one t h e p r o g r a m s t o p s a f t e r o u t p u t i n g t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f i n c o m e by T Y P E . I f f i e l d two i s n o n - z e r o t h e p r o g r a m a s s u m e s t h a t v a l u e s a r e t h e r e q u i r e d 239 number o f " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s by T Y P E . A 1 . 4 3 3 C o m p u t a t i o n o f I n c o m e a n d P o p u l a t i o n . The i n i t i a l o p e r a t i o n o f t h e p r o g r a m c o n s i s t s o f s o r t i n g t h e i n d i v i d u a l h o u s e h o l d s by t y p e a n d a l l o c a t i n g t h e i r i n c o m e t o t h e r e s p e c t i v e c o n t i n u u m . The i n p u t d a t a o b s e r v a t i o n s a r e t h e h o u s e h o l d h e a d ' s a g e , m a r i t a l s t a t u s a n d number o f c h i l d r e n , t o i d e n t i f y t h e T Y P E , t h e a c t u a l 1974 i n c o m e a n d a h o u s e h o l d w e i g h t i n g v a l u e . The i n c o m e v a l u e i s t h e t o t a l i n c o m e r e c e i v e d f r o m a l l s o u r c e s d u r i n g t h e c a l e n d a r y e a r 1 9 7 3 , by a l l members o f t h e h o u s e h o l d who w e r e f o u r t e e n y e a r s o f a g e a n d o v e r a t t h e t i m e o f t h e s u r v e y . The h o u s e h o l d w e i g h t i n g i s a c o m p u t e d f a c t o r u s e d t o e x p a n d t h e s a m p l e o f r e p o r t i n g h o u s e h o l d s t o a p r e d e t e r m i n e d p o p u l a t i o n s i z e . T h e s e w e i g h t s a r e b a s e d on t h e s a m p l e s i z e , t h e b a s i c s e l e c t i o n p r o b a b i l i t y f o r e a c h u n i t c h o s e n a n d a n o n - r e s p o n s e f a c t o r . I n a l l o c a t i n g a n i n p u t o b s e r v a t i o n t o t h e r e s p e c t i v e i n c o m e c o n t i n u u m , t h e i n c o m e i s d e f l a t e d by t h e r e l e v a n t i n p u t d e f l a t o r a n d t h e a s s s i g n e d v a l u e i s s e t e q u a l t o t h e w e i g h t i n g f a c t o r . T h a t i s , t h e w e i g h t i n g f a c t o r i s t a k e n a s t h e r e p r e s e n t e d number o f h o u s e h o l d s c o n s i d e r e d t o h a v e e q u i v a l e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a n d i n c o m e s . The p e r c e n t a g e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f h o u s e h o l d s by t y p e a n d d e f l a t e d i n c o m e s a r e o u t p u t a s f o l l o w s . The "number o b s . " i n d i c a t e s t h e number o f a c t u a l s a m p l e h o u s e h o l d s by t y p e w i t h " sum w e i g h t s " i n d i c a t i n g t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g p o p u l a t i o n d e r i v e d f r o m t h e w e i g h t i n g f a c t o r s . 240 * * * % D I S T R I B U T I O N o f INCOMES by s o u r c e : SHU 1974 s u r v e y d a t a G R O U P : 1 2 3 H e a d ' s a g e <30 3 0 - 6 4 <30 S p o u s e Y / N Y / N Y e s C h i l d r e n Y e s Y e s No INCOME r a n g e . 1- 1000 7 . 4 0 . 2 0 . 3 1 0 0 1 - 2000 0 . 9 0 . 6 2 . 4 2 0 0 1 - 3000 5 . 4 1 . 4 3 . 5 3 0 0 1 - 4000 5 . 6 2 . 8 3 . 0 4 0 0 1 - 5000 1 1 . 2 2 . 3 4 . 7 5 0 0 1 - 6000 4 . 7 3 . 7 5 . 4 6 0 0 1 - 7000 1 3 . 0 6 . 0 5 . 8 7 0 0 1 - 8000 1 2 . 6 4 . 7 5 . 9 8 0 0 1 - 9000 8 . 0 8 . 8 7 .1 9 0 0 1 - 1 0 0 0 0 6 . 6 7 . 7 7 .1 1 0 0 0 1 - 1 1 0 0 0 7 . 7 9 . 5 4 . 3 1 1 0 0 1 - 1 2 0 0 0 2 . 3 6 . 9 5 . 8 1 2 0 0 1 - 1 3 0 0 0 3 . 0 8 . 9 6 . 5 1 3 0 0 1 - 1 4 0 0 0 1.9 5 . 8 8 . 6 1 4 0 0 1 - 1 5 0 0 0 2 . 9 2 . 9 6 . 8 1 5 0 0 1 - 1 6 0 0 0 3 . 0 3 . 0 2 . 8 1 6 0 0 1 - 1 7 0 0 0 0 . 9 3 .1 7 . 6 1 7 0 0 1 - 1 8 0 0 0 2 . 3 5 . 4 5 . 3 1 8 0 0 1 - 1 9 0 0 0 0 . 0 2 . 9 2 . 4 1 9 0 0 1 - 2 0 0 0 0 0 . 0 1 . 6 1.8 2 0 0 0 1 - 2 1 0 0 0 0 . 0 2 . 3 0 . 3 2 1 0 0 1 - 2 2 0 0 0 0 . 5 2 . 2 0 . 0 2 2 0 0 1 - 2 3 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 . 5 1 . 4 2 3 0 0 1 - 2 4 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 . 5 0 . 3 2 4 0 0 1 - 2 5 0 0 0 0 . 0 1 . 8 0 . 0 2 5 0 0 1 - 2 6 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 . 8 0 . 0 2 6 0 0 1 - 2 7 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 .1 0 . 3 2 7 0 0 1 - 2 8 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 . 3 0 . 0 2 8 0 0 1 - 2 9 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 . 4 0 . 5 2 9 0 0 1 - 3 0 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 . 2 0 . 0 3 0 0 0 1 - 3 1 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 . 4 0 . 0 3 1 0 0 1 - 3 2 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 . 3 0 . 0 3 2 0 0 1 - 3 3 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 . 4 0 . 0 3 3 0 0 1 - 3 4 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 .1 0 . 4 3 4 0 0 1 - 3 5 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 .1 0 . 0 3 5 0 0 1 - 3 6 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 3 6 0 0 1 - 3 7 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 3 7 0 0 1 - 3 8 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 . 3 0 . 0 3 8 0 0 1 - 3 9 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 >40000 0 . 0 1 . 2 0 . 0 number o b s . 1 75 747 21 1 sum w e i g h t s 12482 6 3 4 3 4 1 3852 mean I 7 5 1 3 . 1 2 6 6 2 . 1 1 1 0 6 . HOUSEHOLD T Y P E : V a n c o u v e r d e f l a t e d 4 5 6 7 8 3 0 - 6 4 65+ <30 3 0 - 6 4 65 + Y e s Y e s No No No No Y / N No No Y / N 0 . 5 1 . 3 2 . 8 1 . 7 5 . 9 0 . 8 3 . 4 1 0 . 7 7 . 9 2 1 . 6 3 . 2 1 5 . 0 8 . 3 5 . 6 2 5 . 2 1 . 1 1 3 . 7 7 . 7 4 . 7 1 1 . 8 4 . 4 19 .1 7 . 7 5 . 9 10 .1 2 . 2 7 . 3 7 . 5 8 .1 6 . 7 5 . 5 7 . 9 1 1 . 2 8 . 8 5 . 8 6 . 3 5 . 3 8 . 8 9 . 0 3 . 3 6 . 2 3 . 4 1 0 . 4 1 0 . 8 2 . 2 5 . 2 2 . 9 4 . 4 3 . 7 1 . 0 8 .1 3 .1 4 . 4 5 . 3 0 . 9 6 . 4 3 . 9 3 . 7 4 . 9 1 . 0 5 . 7 2 . 9 2 . 4 5 . 5 1 .1 4 . 2 1 . 4 0 . 4 4 . 5 1 . 8 4 . 2 0 . 8 1 . 1 0 . 8 0 . 4 5 . 1 1 . 2 1 . 5 1 . 2 0 . 6 3 . 6 1 . 1 0 . 9 3 . 4 0 . 4 3 . 0 0 . 2 0 . 7 0 . 2 0 .1 4 . 0 1 . 1 0 . 3 0 . 3 0 .1 3 . 8 0 . 3 0 . 8 1 . 4 0 . 0 3 . 2 1 . 3 0 . 0 1 . 0 0 . 0 2 . 2 0 . 5 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 0 2 . 2 0 . 0 0 . 8 0 .1 0 . 0 1 . 4 0 . 2 0 . 4 0 . 8 0 . 0 0 . 2 0 . 0 0 . 9 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 4 0 . 4 0 . 2 0 . 5 0 . 0 1 . 8 0 . 0 0 . 0 1 . 2 0 . 0 0 .1 1 . 2 0 . 0 0 . 3 0 . 0 0 . 5 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 2 0 . 6 0 . 0 0 .1 0 . 0 0 . 3 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 5 0 . 0 0 . 2 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 7 0 .1 0 . 0 0 . 6 0 . 0 0 . 3 0 . 2 0 . 6 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 4 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 2 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 8 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 2 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 4 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 1 . 7 0 . 5 0 . 8 0 . 5 0 . 0 436 340 303 382 236 11890 23404 231 50 35257 2198 3 5 9 4 . 7 0 3 3 . 7 4 3 6 . 9 0 4 5 . 3960 241 A 1 . 4 3 4 Number o f " M o d e l " H o u s e h o l d s The d e c a d e - e n d number o f " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s i s e x o g e n o u s l y d e t e r m i n e d by t h e c o m p u t a t i o n a l c a p a b i l i t i e s o f t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m a n d mus t c o r r e s p o n d t o t h e d e c a d e - e n d number o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s u s e d f o r GAMMA c a l i b r a t i o n s i m u l a t i o n s . I n c u r r e n t s t u d i e s t h i s number h a s b e e n s e t a r b i t r a r i l y a t 1 0 0 . T h i s r e s u l t s i n e a c h " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d r e p r e s e n t i n g up t o 3500 a c t u a l h o u s e h o l d s i n t h e l a r g e r c i t i e s , one t e n t h t h i s number i n t h e s m a l l e r o f t h e c i t i e s . T h e s e n u m b e r s c o m p a r e f a v o u r a b l y w i t h t h e 1 9 , 0 0 0 a c t u a l t o m o d e l r a t i o u s e d i n s t u d i e s by t h e U . I . The r e q u i r e d number o f " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s i s i n p u t on d a t a c a r d " 3 " . F r o m t h i s i n p u t v a l u e t h e p r o g r a m c a l c u l a t e s t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g number o f " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s p e r t y p e g r o u p a s s u m i n g a c o n s t a n t r a t i o o f a c t u a l t o m o d e l . T h i s c o n s t a n t r a t i o r e s u l t s i n p a r t i a l " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s b e i n g r e q u i r e d i n some o r a l l o f t h e T Y P E g r o u p s . A s t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m p r o g r a m c a n n o t h a n d l e p a r t i a l " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s o r d w e l l i n g s t h e number o f " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s p e r T Y P E g r o u p i s r o u n d e d t o t h e n e a r e s t i n t e g e r v a l u e . The r e s u l t a n t c h a n g e s i n t h e number o f a c t u a l h o u s e h o l d s p e r " m o d e l " a r e summed t o g i v e a s p e c i f i c a t i o n ERROR v a l u e . T h i s ERROR t e r m i n d i c a t e s t h e d e g r e e o f u n i f o r m i t y o f t h e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n by T Y P E . To p r o v i d e a c h e c k on t h e r e l a t i v e v a l u e o f t h e ERROR t e r m , t h e ERROR a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a r a n g e o f s p e c i f i c a t i o n s o f t h e t o t a l number o f " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s a r e c a l c u l a t e d . I f t h e " a d j u s t e d " number o f " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s d o e s n o t c o r r e s p o n d t o t h e " r e q u i r e d " t h e p r o g r a m s t o p s . The p r o g r a m m u s t t h e n be r e r u n w i t h a n a c t u a l d i s t r i b u t i o n , a d j u s t e d t o c o r r e s p o n d t o t h e r e q u i r e d , a s i n p u t on d a t a c a r d " 3 " . ' T h e s e c a l c u l a t i o n s o f t h e a l l o c a t i o n s , w i t h t h e r e q u i r e d 242 s p e c i f i c a t i o n of 100 model households denoted, are output as f o l l o w s : 243 * * * NUMBER OF MODEL HOUSEHOLDS: V a n c o u v e r Raw # # / m o d e l A d j u s t e d # # / m o d e l Raw # # / m o d e l A d j u s t e d # # / m o d e l T o t a l s 9 4 . 9 4 . 9 6 . 9 6 . ( G r o u p 1) 5 . 0 2 5 0 4 . 5 . 0 2 4 9 6 . 5 .1 2 4 5 2 . 5 . 0 2 4 9 6 . ( G r o u p 2) 2 5 . 3 2 5 0 4 . 2 5 . 0 2 5 3 7 . 2 5 . 9 2 4 5 2 . 2 6 . 0 2 4 4 0 . ( G r o u p 3) 5 . 5 2 5 0 4 . 6 . 0 2 3 0 9 . 5 . 6 2 4 5 2 . 6 . 0 2 3 0 9 . ( G r o u p 4) 1 6 . 7 2 5 0 4 . 1 7 . 0 2 4 6 4 . 17 .1 2 4 5 2 . 1 7 . 0 2 4 6 4 . ( G r o u p 5) 9 . 3 2 5 0 4 . 9 . 0 2 6 0 0 . 9 . 5 2 4 5 2 . 1 0 . 0 2 3 4 0 . ( G r o u p 6) 9 . 2 2 5 0 4 . 9 . 0 2 5 7 2 . 9 . 4 2 4 5 2 . 9 . 0 2 5 7 2 . ( G r o u p 7) 14 .1 2 5 0 4 . 1 4 . 0 2 5 1 8 . 1 4 . 4 2 4 5 2 . 1 4 . 0 2 5 1 8 . ( G r o u p 8) 8 . 8 2 5 0 4 . 9 . 0 2 4 4 3 . 9 . 0 2 4 5 2 . 9 . 0 2 4 4 3 . E r r o r : 4 9 5 6 . E r r o r : 4 8 1 7 . Raw # # / m o d e l A d j u s t e d # # / m o d e l Raw # # / m o d e l A d j u s t e d # # / m o d e l T o t a l s 9 8 . 9 8 . 1 0 0 . 1 0 0 . ( G r o u p 1) 5 . 2 2 4 0 2 . 5 . 0 2 4 9 6 . 5 . 3 2 3 5 4 . 5 . 0 2 4 9 6 . ( G r o u p 2) 2 6 . 4 2 4 0 2 . 2 6 . 0 2 4 4 0 . 2 6 . 9 2 3 5 4 . 2 7 . 0 2 3 4 9 . ( G r o u p 3) 5 . 8 2 4 0 2 . 6 . 0 2 3 0 9 . 5 . 9 2 3 5 4 . 6 . 0 2 3 0 9 . ( G r o u p 4) 1 7 . 4 2 4 0 2 . 1 7 . 0 2 4 6 4 . 1 7 . 8 2 3 5 4 . 1 8 . 0 2 3 2 7 . ( G r o u p 5) 9 . 7 2 4 0 2 . 1 0 . 0 2 3 4 0 . 9 . 9 2 3 5 4 . 1 0 . 0 2 3 4 0 . ( G r o u p 6) 9 . 6 2 4 0 2 . 1 0 . 0 231 5 . 9 . 8 2 3 5 4 . 1 0 . 0 231 5 . ( G r o u p 7) 1 4 . 7 2 4 0 2 . 1 5 . 0 2 3 5 0 . 1 5 . 0 2 3 5 4 . 1 5 . 0 2 3 5 0 . ( G r o u p 8) 9 . 2 2 4 0 2 . 9 . 0 2 4 4 3 . 9 . 3 2 3 5 4 . 9 . 0 2 4 4 3 . E r r o r : 5 6 9 6 . E r r o r : 2 9 6 9 . Raw # # / m o d e l A d j u s t e d # # / m o d e l Raw # # / m o d e l A d j u s t e d # # / m o d e l T o t a l s 1 0 2 . 101 • 1 0 4 . 1 0 4 . ( G r o u p 1) 5 . 4 2 3 0 8 . 5 . 0 2 4 9 6 . 5 . 5 2 2 6 3 . 6 . 0 2 0 8 0 . ( G r o u p 2) 2 7 . 5 2 3 0 8 . 2 7 . 0 2 3 4 9 . 2 8 . 0 2 2 6 3 . 2 8 . 0 2 2 6 5 . ( G r o u p 3) 6 . 0 2 3 0 8 . 6 . 0 2 3 0 9 . 6 .1 2 2 6 3 . 6 . 0 2 3 0 9 . ( G r o u p 4) 18 .1 2 3 0 8 . 1 8 . 0 2 3 2 7 . 1 8 . 5 2 2 6 3 . 1 9 . 0 2 2 0 5 . ( G r o u p 5) 10 .1 2 3 0 8 . 1 0 . 0 2 3 4 0 . 1 0 . 3 2 2 6 3 . 1 0 . 0 2 3 4 0 . ( G r o u p 6) 1 0 . 0 2 3 0 8 . 1 0 . 0 231 5 . 1 0 . 2 2 2 6 3 . 1 0 . 0 2 3 1 5 . ( G r o u p 7) 1 5 . 3 2 3 0 8 . 1 5 . 0 2 3 5 0 . 1 5 . 6 2 2 6 3 . 1 6 . 0 2 2 0 4 . ( G r o u p 8) 9 . 5 2 3 0 8 . 1 0 . 0 2 1 9 9 . 9 . 7 2 2 6 3 . 1 0 . 0 2 1 9 9 . E r r o r : 4 5 3 6 . E r r o r : 5 4 3 6 . 244 A 1 . 4 3 5 " M o d e l " H o u s e h o l d s A n i n d i v i d u a l " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d i s i d e n t i f i e d i n t h e s i m u l a t i o n a l g o r i t h m by i t s a c t u a l i n c o m e l e v e l a n d t h e T Y P E g r o u p t o w h i c h i t b e l o n g s . The T Y P E g r o u p i d e n t i f i c a t i o n a r e u s e d t o a l l o c a t e ALP HA p a r a m e t e r v a l u e s a n d i n t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e " p e r m a n e n t " o r " m o d e l " i n c o m e . The " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s a r e f o r m e d f r o m t h e a c t u a l i n c o m e d i s t r i b u t i o n s i n e a c h T Y P E g r o u p w i t h o u t c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e i r l o c a t i o n . The i n c o m e r a n g e on e a c h T Y P E ' S c o n t i n u u m i s s e t a s $ 1 - $ 5 0 , 0 0 0 . w i t h a $ 2 0 0 . i n t e r v a l s t e p . The d i s t r i b u t i o n v a l u e s a r e t h e sum o f t h e a s s i g n e d w e i g h t i n g f a c t o r s f o r e a c h s a m p l e h o u s e h o l d . T h e s e c o n t i n u u m s a r e i n d i v i d u a l l y c o n v e r t e d i n t o " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s by g r o u p i n g t h e " a c t u a l " h o u s e h o l d s by t h e p r e d e t e r m i n e d r a t i o o f a c t u a l t o m o d e l f o r t h e r e s p e c t i v e T Y P E g r o u p . The mean i n c o m e a n d t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n i s c a l c u l a t e d f o r e a c h " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d a n d o u t p u t a s f o l l o w s a f t e r e a c h i n c o m e c o n t i n u u m . The f o l l o w i n g e x a m p l e o u t p u t i s f o r t h e l a r g e s t V a n c o u v e r g r o u p . 245 * * * D I S T R I B U T I O N o f INCOMES by HOUSEHOLD T Y P E : V a n c o u v e r s o u r c e : SHU 1974 s u r v e y d a t a d e f l a t e d c r e a t i n g MODEL HOUSEHOLDS (GROUP 2) E s t i m a t e d Number H o u s e h o l d s : 6 3 4 3 4 . Number o f MODEL H o u s e h o l d s : 2 7 . R A T I O o f A C T U A L t o M O D E L : 2 3 4 9 . »t y ll h h o l d s " Y " h h o l d s II Y " h h o l d s II Y " h h o l d s II Y " h h o l d s II Y " h h o l d * 1 5 9 . 85 9 6 6 . * 1 69 6 4 8 . 253 1 9 6 . 337 0 . 421 0 . 3 0 . * 87 2 2 0 5 . 171 441 . 255 6 2 . 339 0 . 423 0 . 5 3 7 . * 89 6 4 5 . 173 5 8 5 . 257 5 3 . 341 0 . 425 3 7 . 7 0 . 91 751 . 175 1 0 6 8 . 259 0 . 343 4 7 . 427 0 . 9 0 . * 93 1 1 8 1 . * 1 77 7 3 0 . 261 0 . 345 3 7 . 429 0 . 1 1 3 7 . 95 1 1 3 3 . 179 6 0 8 . 263 3 7 . 347 0 . 431 1 7 3 . 1 3 1 6 7 . 97 9 1 5 . 181 8 1 4 . 265 0 . 349 0 . 433 0 . 1 5 3 7 . * 99 9 0 6 . 183 3 7 . 267 0 . 351 0 . 435 0 . 17 1 5 8 . 101 1 2 0 8 . 185 151 . * 2 6 9 5 8 . 353 0 . 437 0 . 1 9 0 . * 1 03 2 4 5 0 . * 1 87 1 8 7 . 271 9 8 . 355 0 . 439 0 . 21 1 3 3 . * 1 05 1 1 6 8 . 189 6 3 5 . 273 0 . 357 0 . 441 0 . 23 0 . 107 721 . 191 1 8 8 . 275 3 6 . 359 0-. 443 0 . 25 5 2 7 . 109 4 8 9 . 193 4 7 4 . 277 0 . 361 0 . 445 0 . 27 2 1 0 . *1 1 1 1 221 . 195 1 2 5 . 279 3 7 . 363 0 . 447 0 . 29 0 . 1 1 3 1 4 6 6 . 1 97 0 . 281 0 . 365 0 . 449 0 . 31 4 5 8 . * 1 1 5 7 2 8 . 1 99 1 9 7 . 283 0 . 367 0 . 451 0 . *33 6 7 6 . 1 1 7 191 . 201 5 3 . 285 1 3 3 . 369 0 . 453 0 . 35 2 3 7 . 1 1 9 7 8 0 . 203 231 . 287 0 . 371 3 7 . 455 0 . 37 1 2 9 . *1 21 1 0 4 3 . * 2 0 5 5 6 9 . 289 1 2 1 . 373 0 . 457 0 . 39 2 4 7 . 1 23 6 5 6 . 207 6 0 8 . 291 0 . 375 3 7 . 459 4 7 . 41 5 1 4 . *1 25 1 6 7 7 . 209 0 . 293 0 . 377 9 8 . 461 0 . 43 4 2 9 . 1 27 851 . 21 1 271 . 295 9 8 . 379 0 . 463 0 . 45 2 1 9 . * 1 29 1 4 3 2 . 213 5 6 4 . 297 0 . 381 0 . 465 0 . 47 2 8 4 . 131 1 0 3 2 . 215 7 4 . 299 0 . 383 0 . 467 0 . 49 0 . 1 33 201 . 217 371 . 301 0 . 385 0 . 469 0 . *51 5 9 0 . * 1 35 1 0 0 6 . 219 1 3 5 . 303 0 . 387 0 . 471 0 . 53 7 4 . 1 37 8 5 5 . *221 1 7 9 . 305 2 7 7 . 389 0 . 473 0 . 55 7 9 7 . 1 39 5 6 2 . 223 1 3 5 . 307 0 . 391 0 . 475 0 . 57 3 6 7 . 141 2 6 7 . 225 0 . 309 0 . 393 0 . 477 0 . 59 5 4 8 . 1 43 1 9 0 . 227 0 . 31 1 0 . 395 0 . 479 0 . *61 6 0 6 . 145 2 5 4 . 229 0 . 313 0 . 397 0 . 481 0 . 63 9 2 4 . * 1 47 6 5 8 . 231 0 . 315 0 . 399 0 . 483 0 . 65 2 4 4 . 1 49 4 3 9 . 233 0 . 317 0 . 401 7 . 485 0 . *67 1 0 0 4 . 151 1 7 8 . 235 0 . 319 1 9 7 . 403 0 . 487 0 . 69 1 0 2 6 . 153 4 7 0 . 237 2 8 7 . 321 0 . 405 0 . 489 0 . 71 2 9 3 . * 1 55 691 . 239 4 3 . 323 0 . 407 5 . 491 0 . 73 5 7 3 . 157 3 6 6 . 241 1 9 7 . 325 3 7 . 409 0 . 493 0 . *75 4 0 2 . 159 2 0 0 . 243 2 3 0 . 327 2 3 4 . 41 1 0 . 495 0 . 77 1 2 9 5 . 161 1 6 8 . 245 3 9 3 . 329 0 . 413 0 . 497 0 . 79 4 0 2 . 1 63 3 0 7 . 247 341 . 331 0 . 415 0 . *499 5 1 6 . *81 1 0 3 4 . 165 5 7 4 . 249 0 . 333 0 . 417 0 . 83 71 1 . 167 2 7 2 . 251 1 9 7 . 335 3 7 . 419 0 . n o t e : " Y " i s t h e i n t e r v a l m e a n : a n n u a l i n c o m e d i v i d e d b y 1 0 0 . 246 * * * D I S T R I B U T I O N o f INCOMES by HOUSEHOLD T Y P E : V a n c o u v e r s o u r c e : SHU 1974 s u r v e y d a t a d e f l a t e d c r e a t i n g MODEL HOUSEHOLDS (GROUP 2) MODEL H o u s e h o l d INCOME N o . Mean S . D . 1 2 5 2 4 . 1 1 8 6 3 . 2 4 1 7 8 . 6 9 9 6 . 3 5 6 0 7 . 431 4 . 4 6 4 2 9 . 4 5 7 7 . 5 7 0 6 7 . 3 0 4 9 . 6 7 8 2 3 . 3741 . 7 8 3 4 7 . 3051 . 8 8 7 5 2 . 3 5 3 2 . 9 9 1 8 9 . 3 3 0 9 . 10 9671 . 2931 . 1 1 1 0 1 6 6 . 3651 . 1 2 1 0 3 7 7 . 4 6 4 6 . 13 1 0 7 4 7 . 3 1 8 2 . 14 1 1 2 5 8 . 1 7 1 8 . 15 1 1 8 2 9 . 4 0 0 4 . 16 1 2 3 8 3 . 3 4 0 4 . 1 7 1 2 7 9 7 . 3201 . 18 1 3 2 4 4 . 5 5 5 5 . 19 1 3 9 8 4 . 3 4 6 5 . 20 1 5 1 4 3 . 5 4 8 9 . 21 1 6 4 4 3 . 9 0 8 9 . 22 1 7 3 8 4 . 3 8 5 4 . 23 1 7 9 9 7 . 3 0 3 0 . 24 1 9 5 0 6 . 10831 . 25 2 1 2 4 9 . 7 0 9 8 . 26 2 4 4 5 5 . 9 9 7 6 . 27 3 6 8 9 0 . 1 5 2 4 6 1 . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e o u t p u t t o f i l e o f i n d i v i d u a l d a t a r e c o r d s f o r e a c h " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d , t h e a v e r a g e i n c o m e f o r e a c h T Y P E g r o u p i s a l s o p r o d u c e d . T h i s l a t t e r d a t a i s u s e d by t h e s i m u l a t i o n p r o g r a m i n c a l c u l a t i n g t h e " m o d e l " i n c o m e s . A p a r t i a l l i s t i n g o f t h i s d a t a i s a s f o l l o w s : 247 V a n c o u v e r 1 1 2160 1 1 2 5105 1 94 95 96 97 98 99 1 1 001 20 1 20 21 20 31 20 41 20 5 20 6 20 7 20 8 2000 2220 2838 3756 4675 6376 1 1 70 7557 2692 1 133 3639 7049 7456 9079 3705 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s " T Y P E " g r o u p s a v e r a g e i n c o m e s ( M Y ) t y p e D e t a i l s on t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s f o r t h e i n d i v i d u a l CMAs a r e c o n t a i n e d i n F i g u r e s A 3 : 0 3 . T h e s e F i g u r e s o u t l i n e r e p o r t e d c e n s u s d e m o g r a p h i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , t h e i n c o m e d e f l a t o r e m p l o y e d , t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s by T Y P E a n d t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g mean i n c o m e s . The a c t u a l d i s t r i b u t i o n s o f " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s a r e c o n t a i n e d i n b o t h t h e GAMMA a n d BETA d a t a s e t s o u t l i n e d i n F i g u r e s A 3 : 1 1 a n d F i g u r e s A 3 : 1 2 r e s p e c t i v e l y . 248 A 1 . 4 4 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : " 1 9 6 1 " " M o d e l " D w e l l i n g s : " D 6 1 . F O R T " T h i s s e c t i o n d e s c r i b e s t h e c o m p u t e r p r o g r a m " D 6 1 . F O R T " , d e v e l o p e d t o c a l c u l a t e t h o s e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s r e q u i r e d a s i n p u t t o t h e s i m u l a t i o n p r o g r a m " S I M 0 1 . F O R T " f o r BETA p a r a m e t e r " c a l i b r a t i o n " r u n s a n d " b a s e " a n d " p o l i c y " a n a l y s e s . T h i s r e q u i r e d i n p u t f o r e a c h " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g i n c l u d e s t h e q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " . s e r v i c e s t h a t i t s u p p l i e s i n 1 9 6 1 , t h e s t a r t o f t h e s i m u l a t i o n p e r i o d a n d t h e z o n e i n w h i c h i t i s l o c a t e d . The c a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e i n i t i a l " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s d i s t r i b u t i o n i s p o s s i b l y t h e mos t d i f f i c u l t t a s k i n a p p l y i n g t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t MODEL t o a n u r b a n m a r k e t . T h i s d i f f i c u l t y a r i s e s b e c a u s e t h e M O D E L s ' demand a n d s u p p l y f u n c t i o n s a r e f o r m u l a t e d i n t e r m s o f u n i t s o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s , t h u s r e q u i r i n g t h e c o n v e r s i o n o f t h e o b s e r v a b l e " r e s i d e n t i a l " s e r v i c e s t o t h e l o c a t i o n - f r e e q u a n t i t y o f s e r v i c e s m e a s u r e . The f i r s t s t e p i n t h i s c o n v e r s i o n p r o c e s s i s t o e s t i m a t e A D J U S T O R s f o r e a c h o f t h e z o n e s , w h i c h w i l l c o n v e r t m a r k e t p r i c e s - r e n t s f o r r e n t a l , e f f e c t i v e m a r k e t v a l u e f o r o w n e r -o c c u p i e d - i n t o t h e e q u i v a l e n t l o c a t i o n - f r e e q u a n t i t y m e a s u r e . The q u a n t i t y o f i n i t i a l " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s f o r e a c h " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g by z o n e i s t h e n c a l c u l a t e d f r o m c o n t i n u u m s o f e f f e c t i v e r e s i d e n t i a l s e r v i c e s by c o m b i n i n g t h e q u a n t i t y A D J U S T O R , v a l u e - t o - r e n t r a t i o s -R / V - a n d t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f a c t u a l r e n t s a n d v a l u e s w i t h i n t h e z o n e . T h i s p r o g r a m h a s b e e n w r i t t e n i n M T S : F O R T R A N u t i l i z i n g g e n e r a l I B M l i b r a r y f u n c t i o n s o n l y , t h u s m a k i n g i t s u i t a b l e f o r g e n e r a l I B M s y s t e m u s a g e i n b a t c h m o d e . The p r o g r a m c o n s i s t s o f t h r e e s e c t i o n s : i n t h e f i r s t t h e a v e r a g e " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s a n d v a l u e - t o -r e n t c o n v e r t o r s by c e n s u s t r a c t a n d z o n a l a g g r e g a t i o n a r e 249 c a l c u l a t e d , t h e s e c o n d c a l c u l a t e s t h e q u a n t i t y A D J U S T O R s t h a t c o n v e r t " r e s i d e n t i a l " s e r v i c e s t o " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s , w h i l e t h e t h i r d g e n e r a t e s t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s by z o n e a n d f o r m s t h e " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s . The g e n e r a l s t r u c t u r e o f t h e p r o g r a m i s o u t l i n e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g f l o w c h a r t ( F i g u r e A 1 : 0 4 ) . I n t r o d u c t i o n I n i t i a l i z a t i o n a n d I n p u t " H o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s A d j u s t o r s " M o d e l " d w e l l i n g s i n i t i a l i z a t i o n i n p u t a n d o u t p u t o f t h e i n p u t d a t a c a l c u l a t e r e l a t i v e h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s a n d R / V r a t i o s by t r a c t I c a l c u l a t e e q u i v a l e n t z o n a l v a l u e s a s t h e w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e . c a l c u l a t e z o n a l q u a n t i t y A D J U S T O R s c a l c u l a t e number " m o d e l " a n d ERROR t e r m I a l l o c a t e r e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n s on z o n a l b a s i s I d e f l a t e v a l u e d i s t r i b u t i o n b o u n d a r i e s by R / V r a t i o a n d a l l o c a t e on z o n a l b a s i s I o b t a i n " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s f r o m r e n t c o n t i n u u m by z o n e I c a l c u l a t e mean r e n t a n d a d j u s t t o " r e l a t i v e h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s f o r e a c h " m o d e l " . o u t p u t I" s t o p F i g u r e A 1 : 0 4 F l o w C h a r t o f P r o g r a m S t r u c t u r e : " D 6 1 . F 0 R T " 250 A 1 . 4 4 1 G e n e r a l O u t l i n e . I n p u t t o t h i s p r o g r a m i s d e r i v e d f r o m t h r e e s o u r c e s ; 1. h e d o n i c c o e f f i c i e n t s a n d n e i g h b o u r h o o d means f r o m t h e c o n t r o l d e c k 2 . c e n s u s d a t a f r o m t h e f i l e C M A 6 1 . I N P U T , a n d 3 . z o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f c e n s u s t r a c t s f r o m C M A 6 1 . Z N . O u t p u t c o n s i s t s o f a b r e a k - d o w n by c e n s u s t r a c t o f t h e a v e r a g e o w n e r - o c c u p i e r a n d r e n t e r q u a n t i t i e s o f " r e s i d e n t i a l " a n d " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s , w i t h t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g r e n t - t o - v a l u e r a t i o s , t h e q u a n t i t y A D J U S T O R s , a n d a r e v i e w o f t h e " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s . I n a d d i t i o n , f o r e a c h " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g t h e r e q u i r e d i n p u t f o r t h e s i m u l a t i o n p r o g r a m , " S I M O 1 . F O R T " , may be w r i t t e n t o f i l e o r p u n c h e d on c a r d s . T h i s d e s c r i p t i o n e m p l o y s a s e t o f c o m p u t a t i o n s b a s e d on V a n c o u v e r d a t a a s a n e x a m p l e . A 1 . 4 4 2 I n p u t a n d I n i t i a l i z a t i o n . The c o n t r o l c a r d d e c k c o n s i s t s o f s e v e n p r o g r a m c a r d s ; 1. c o n t r o l a n d t i t l e c a r d ( 2 X , I 2 , 5 A 4 ) 2 . r e n t a l m o d e l : s t r u c t u r a l c o e f f i c i e n t s ( 8 F 1 0 . 0 ) 3 . r e n t a l m o d e l : n e i g h b o u r h o o d c o e f f i c i e n t s ( 8 F 1 0 . 0 ) 4 . o w n e r m o d e l : s t r u c t u r a l c o e f f i c i e n t s ( 8 F 1 0 . 0 ) 5 . o w n e r m o d e l : n e i g h b o u r h o o d c o e f f i c i e n t s ( 8 F 1 0 . 0 ) 6 . means f o r t h e n e i g h b o u r h o o d v a r i a b l e s ( 8 F 1 0 . 0 ) 7 . t h e r e q u i r e d number o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s ( 1 3 ) , o r t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s by z o n e ( 1 0 1 3 ) . The p r o g r a m c o n t r o l c a r d s f o r t h e V a n c o u v e r e x a m p l e w i t h f i v e z o n e s i s a s f o l l o w s . I n d i v i d u a l c a r d s a r e d e s c r i b e d i n t h e s u b s e q u e n t s e c t i o n s . 0005 V A N C O U V E R : 0 5 4 . 1 2 1 9 . 2 0 2 5 - . 3 4 7 1 - . 1 6 0 8 . 5 5 1 3 0 . 2 3 6 1 . 2 6 2 0 - . 0 0 2 3 6 . 6 7 0 0 . 1 4 3 8 - . 4 1 2 4 - . 1 5 4 0 1 . 3 9 7 5 . 0 6 6 6 . 6 2 7 5 - . 0 0 0 8 0 8 . 1 4 2 3 . 2 2 5 1 5 3 . 4 69 251 The c o n t r o l a n d t i t l e c a r d c o n s i s t s o f t h r e e d a t a f i e l d s . The f i r s t f i e l d ( c o l u m n s 1-2) i s b l a n k , w h i l e t h e s e c o n d f i e l d ( c o l u m n s 3 - 4 ) c o n t a i n s t h e number o f z o n e s a n d t h e t h i r d ( c o l u m n s 5 - 2 4 ) i s t h e t i t l e . On l o a d i n g t h e t i t l e c a r d , t h e p r o g r a m c h e c k s t o e n s u r e t h a t t h e number o f z o n e s c o r r e s p o n d s t o t h a t s p e c i f i e d on C M A 6 1 . Z N . An e r r o r w i l l s t o p e x e c u t i o n . The f i r s t c o m p u t a t i o n i n v o l v e s c a l c u l a t i n g t h e a v e r a g e q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s . A 1 . 4 4 3 " 1 9 6 1 " Q u a n t i t y o f H o u s i n g S e r v i c e s . The u n i t o f " r e s i d e n t i a l " a n d " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e u s e d by t h i s MODEL may be c o n s i d e r e d t o be e q u i v a l e n t t o o n e d o l l a r o f m o n t h l y r e n t i n t h e i n i t i a l y e a r . T h i s r e q u i r e s t h a t c a p i t a l v a l u e s be c o n v e r t e d t o m o n t h l y e q u i v a l e n t s . The a v e r a g e q u a n t i t y o f o w n e r -o c c u p i e r a n d r e n t a l " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s i s d e r i v e d f r o m d a t a on h o u s i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , a g g r e g a t e d a t t h e c e n s u s t r a c t l e v e l . T h e o r e t i c a l l y , t h e " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s a r e e s t i m a t e d f r o m o b s e r v e d " r e s i d e n t i a l " s e r v i c e s u n d e r t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e v a l u e o f a h o u s i n g u n i t i s c o m p r i s e d o f i n d e p e n d e n t c o m p o n e n t p a r t s , i n p a r t i c u l a r " s t r u c t u r a l " a n d " l o c a t i o n - n e i g h b o u r h o o d " . RS = f ( s t r u c t u r a l a t t r i b u t e s ) + f ( n e i g h b o u r h o o d a t t r i b u t e s ) = f ( H S ) + f ( N S ) The e s t i m a t i o n o f t h i s e q u a t i o n u n d e r v a r i o u s s p e c i f i c a t i o n s i s o u t l i n e d i n t h e S e c t i o n A 1 . 3 1 : 1961 H e d o n i c R e g r e s s i o n s . The o u t p u t f r o m t h e s e r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s e s c o n s i s t s o f s e p a r a t e r e n t a l a n d o w n e r m o d e l s , i n w h i c h r e n t s , o r a l t e r n a t i v e l y e s t i m a t e d v a l u e s , a r e " e x p l a i n e d " i n t e r m s o f t h e s t r u c t u r a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e h o u s i n g s t o c k a n d n e i g h b o u r h o o d r e l a t e d v a r i a b l e s . I d e a l l y , t h e n e i g h b o u r h o o d e f f e c t i s s i m p l y t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e a c t u a l r e n t - q u a n t i t y o f " r e s i d e n t i a l " s e r v i c e s a n d t h e c a l c u l a t e d 252 q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s . A p r o b l e m a r i s e s , h o w e v e r , s i n c e t h e i n c l u d e d n e i g h b o u r h o o d v a r i a b l e s a r e h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h " s t r u c t u r a l " v a r i a b l e s t h a t h a v e b e e n e l i m i n a t e d f r o m t h e e q u a t i o n . C o n s e q u e n t l y , i f t h e i n c l u d e d s t r u c t u r a l v a r i a b l e s a l o n e a r e u s e d i n c a l c u l a t i n g t h e r e s p e c t i v e q u a n t i t e s o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s , t h e q u a n t i t y w i l l be s e v e r l y u n d e r e s t i m a t e d . F o r e x a m p l e , i f we c o n s i d e r t h e c o m p o n e n t c o n t r i b u t i o n s a t t h e mean f o r t h e 1961 p a r a m e t e r s , 44% o f t h e c a l c u l a t e d " r e s i d e n t i a l " s e r v i c e s a r e d e r i v e d f r o m t h e " s t r u c t u r a l " c o m p o n e n t a n d 56% f r o m t h e " n e i g h b o u r h o o d " c o m p o n e n t . A s a r e s u l t , o n l y " r e l a t i v e h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s " , R H S ' s , c a n be c a l c u l a t e d . T h e s e r e l a t i v e q u a n t i t i e s a r e c a l c u l a t e d by s u b s t i t u t i n g t h e c i t y a v e r a g e v a l u e s f o r t h e " n e i g h b o u r h o o d " c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i n a d d i t i o n t o t h e r e l e v a n t s t r u c t u r a l v a r i a b l e v a l u e s . The e s t i m a t e d 1961 h e d o n i c c o e f f i c i e n t s , p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e s A 3 : 0 5 : 1961 H e d o n i c s , a r e l o a d e d a s i n p u t . Two d a t a c a r d s a r e r e q u i r e d f o r e a c h o f t h e two m o d e l s , RENTAL a n d OWNER, w i t h t h e f i r s t c a r d c o n t a i n i n g t h e s t r u c t u r a l c o e f f i c i e n t s a n d t h e s e c o n d t h e n e i g h b o u r h o o d . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e c i t y mean v a l u e s f o r t h e n e i g h b o u r h o o d c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a r e i n p u t on a n a d d i t i o n a l c a r d . The o r d e r i n g o f t h e i n p u t c o e f f i c i e n t s a n d t h e mean v a l u e s on c a r d s 2 - 6 i s i n d i c a t e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g i n p u t r e v i e w . E a c h c a r d h a s e i g h t d a t a f i e l d s o f t e n c o l u m n s ( 8 F 1 0 . 0 ) . T h o s e c o e f f i c i e n t s e l i m i n a t e d f r o m t h e e q u a t i o n s f o r some c i t i e s a r e s i m p l y s e t t o z e r o . 253 * * * I N P U T C O E F F I C I E N T S R E N T A L MODEL OWNER-OCCUPIER MODEL S t r u c t u r a l N e i g h b o u r h o o d S t r u c t u r a l N e i g h b o u r h o o d CONSTANT 4 . 122 L N INCME 0 . 2 3 6 CONSTANT 6 . 670 L N INCME 0 . 0 6 7 % G . C O N D . 0 . 202 %APT 0 . 2 6 2 % G . C O N D . 0 . 144 %APT 0 . 6 2 7 %BATH 0 . 0 A C C E S S - 0 . 0 0 2 %BATH 0 . 0 A C C E S S - 0 . 0 0 % 2 0 - 4 0 Y R - 0 . 347 0 . 0 % 2 0 - 4 0 Y R - 0 . 412 0 . 0 %OVER40 - 0 . 161 0 . 0 %0VER40 - 0 . 1 54 0 . 0 L N RMS 0 . 531 0 . 0 L N RMS 1 . 398 0 . 0 * * * INPUT MEANS o f NEIGHBOURHOOD v a r i a b l e s L N INCME 8 . 1 4 2 %APT 0 . 2 2 5 A C C E S S 5 3 . 4 0 0 n o t e : t h e c i t y mean v a l u e f o r L N i n c o m e i s i n l o g f o r m . T h u s t h e q u a n t i t y o f " r e l a t i v e h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s , R H S , i s c a l c u l a t e d by summing t h e p r o d u c t s o f t h e i n p u t c o e f f i c i e n t s a n d t h e r e s p e c t i v e v a r i a b l e v a l u e s i n p u t f r o m C M A 6 1 . I N P U T o r t h e s u p p l i e d c i t y mean v a l u e s f o r t h e n e i g h b o u r h o o d v a r i a b l e s . S u b s t i t u t i o n s a r e made on a c e n s u s t r a c t b a s i s . S i n c e t h e 1961 c e n s u s t r a c t d a t a d o e s n o t c r o s s - t a b u l a t e i n t e r m s o f r e n t a l a n d o w n e r - o c c u p i e d d w e l l i n g s , i n some i n s t a n c e s t h e same v a l u e s f o r i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s a r e s u b s t i t u t e d i n t o b o t h t h e r e n t a l a n d o w n e r m o d e l s . I t s h o u l d be r e m e m b e r e d t h a t i n c a l c u l a t i n g t h e t w o r e g r e s s i o n m o d e l s t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s a r e o f a n a t u r a l l o g a r i t h m i c f o r m . S u b s t i t u t i o n o f t h e mean t r a c t v a l u e s i n t o t h e e q u a t i o n s w i l l g e n e r a t e t h e LOG o f t h e r e s p e c t i v e R H S . The a c t u a l v a l u e s a r e c a l c u l a t e d u s i n g a s i n g l e p r e c i s i o n E X P O N E N T I A L f u n c t i o n . 254 The 1961 HEDONIC m o d e l s a r e : RENTAL MODEL L O G ( R H S - r e n t ) = CONSTANT + % G . C O N D . * p r o p o r t i o n o f d w e l l i n g s i n g o o d c o n d i t i o n + %BATH * p r o p o r t i o n o f d w e l l i n g s w i t h b a t h + % l 5 - 4 0 * p r o p o r t i o n o f d w e l l i n g s b u i l t 1 9 2 0 - 1 9 4 5 + %OVER 40 * p r o p o r t i o n o f d w e l l i n g s b u i l t p r e - 1 9 2 0 + L N RMS * LOG ( a v e r a g e number o f r o o m s ) + L N INCME * t h e i n p u t v a l u e ( c a r d 6) f o r t h e l o g o f t h e a v e r a g e i n c o m e f o r a l l h o u s e h o l d s i n t h e u r b a n a r e a + %APT * t h e i n p u t v a l u e ( c a r d 6) f o r t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f a p a r t m e n t d w e l l i n g s i n t h e u r b a n a r e a + A C C E S S * t h e i n p u t v a l u e ( c a r d 6) f o r t h e a v e r a g e d i s t a n c e t o t h e C e n t r a l B u s i n e s s D i s t r i c t ( s e e S e c t i o n A 1 . 2 2 1 1961 H e d o n i c s ) OWNER MODEL L O G ( R H S - o w n ) = CONSTANT + % G . C O N D . * p r o p o r t i o n o f d w e l l i n g s c o n s i d e r e d i n g o o d c o n d i t i o n + %BATH * p r o p o r t i o n o f d w e l l i n g s w i t h b a t h + % l 5 - 4 0 * p r o p o r t i o n o f d w e l l i n g s b u i l t 1 9 2 0 - 4 5 + %OVER 40 * p r o p o r t i o n o f . d w e l l i n g s b u i l t p r e - 1 9 2 0 + L N RMS * LOG ( a v e r a g e number o f r o o m s ) + L N INCME * t h e i n p u t v a l u e ( c a r d 6) f o r t h e LOG o f t h e a v e r a g e i n c o m e + %APT * t h e i n p u t v a l u e ( c a r d 6) f o r t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f a p a r t m e n t d w e l l i n g s i n t h e u r b a n a r e a + A C C E S S * t h e i n p u t v a l u e ( s e e RENTAL m o d e l ) 255 The r e s p e c t i v e q u a n t i t i e s o f R H S - r e n t a n d R H S - o w n by z o n a l a g g r e g a t i o n a r e c o r r e s p o n d i n g l y c a l c u l a t e d f r o m t h e w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e o f t h e c o m p o n e n t c e n s u s t r a c t v a r i a b l e s . :' The c a l c u l a t e d R H S - r e n t , t h e a c t u a l a v e r a g e r e n t , R H S - o w n a n d t h e a c t u a l a v e r a g e v a l u e a r e o u t p u t a s f o l l o w s f o r e a c h c e n s u s t r a c t by z o n a l g r o u p i n g . The " R / V " c o l u m n s i n d i c a t e t h e r a t i o s o f a c t u a l r e n t t o a c t u a l v a l u e , ( a c t u a l ) a n d c a l c u l a t e d R H S - r e n t t o R H S - o w n , ( c a l c ) . The " R / v ( c a l c ) . " v a l u e s a r e u s e d t o c o n v e r t t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f o w n e r - o c c u p i e r d w e l l i n g v a l u e s i n t o a d i s t r i b u t i o n o f e f f e c t i v e m o n t h l y r e n t s , c o m p a t i b l e w i t h t h e r e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n s . T h i s f o l l o w i n g e x a m p l e f r o m V a n c o u v e r i s f o r one z o n a l g r o u p i n g o n l y , p l u s a r e v i e w by z o n e f o r t h e CMA * * * D I S T R I B U T I O N o f HOUSING S E R V I C E S : V a n c o u v e r 05 ( Z o n e 1) R E N T A L MODEL OWNER-OCCUPIER MODEL R/V T r a c t R e n t RHS - r e n t # U n i t s V a l u e R H S - o w n # U n i t s A c t u a l C a l c 1 9 5 . 7 5 . 2 2 4 0 . 1 9 8 9 8 . 7 8 0 0 . 3 9 4 . 0 . 0 0 4 8 0 . 0 0 9 6 2 1 0 2 . 8 2 . 2 4 8 7 . 2 4 7 0 6 . 9 2 0 5 . 4 1 9 . 0 . 0 0 4 1 0 . 0 0 9 0 3 8 9 . 7 6 . 2 6 4 0 . 1 8 6 0 8 . 8 1 2 8 . 2 6 8 . 0 . 0 0 4 8 0 . 0 0 9 4 4 81 . 6 9 . 2 2 1 0 . 2 2 6 8 8 . 6 8 7 4 . 1 6 5 . 0 . 0 0 3 6 0 . 0101 18 6 7 . 9 8 . 4 2 8 . 2 3 3 4 2 . 1 7 3 2 0 . 9 3 6 . 0 . 0 0 2 9 0 . 0 0 5 7 19 1 1 0 . 8 9 . 3 3 5 . 1 6 7 0 2 . 1 4 9 8 5 . 1 8 5 5 . 0 . 0 0 6 6 0 . 0 0 5 9 22 9 3 . 7 7 . 31 5 7 . 2 3 9 3 9 . 8 2 3 2 . 2 7 4 . 0 . 0 0 3 9 0 . 0 0 9 3 35 9 2 . 9 0 . 1 1 4 9 . 2 0 4 9 4 . 1 4 0 0 2 . 1 7 6 6 . 0 . 0 0 4 5 0 . 0 0 6 4 36 1 1 4 . 1 0 1 . 5 2 8 . 2 0 0 5 4 . 1 6 6 4 0 . 1 6 0 2 . 0 . 0 0 5 7 0 . 0061 37 1 0 7 . 8 8 . 2 1 5 . 1 5 2 2 7 . 1 4 4 6 7 . 1 7 5 6 . 0 . 0 0 7 0 0 . 0061 38 91 . 1 0 2 . 4 5 0 . 3 4 4 5 5 . 1 7 6 8 6 . 4 2 7 . 0 . 0 0 2 6 0 . 0 0 5 8 39 1 1 9 . 91 . 1 2 2 . 1 6 9 7 0 . 1 5 2 9 2 . 1 6 1 9 . 0 . 0 0 7 0 0 . 0 0 6 0 40 9 7 . 9 8 . 5 5 . 2 3 1 3 2 . 1 7 4 6 1 . 9 6 5 . 0 . 0 0 4 2 0 . 0 0 5 6 41 1 2 6 . 9 2 . 7 5 3 . 2 0 2 8 9 . 1 4 0 9 4 . 1 3 1 8 . 0 . 0 0 6 2 0 . 0 0 6 5 42 1 0 7 . 9 8 . 151 . 2 2 0 9 4 . 1 7 0 5 5 . 2 0 2 2 . 0 . 0 0 4 8 0 . 0 0 5 7 54 1 1 6 . 9 0 . 111. 1 6 5 1 0 . 1 4 5 1 1 . 1 2 9 8 . 0 . 0 0 7 0 0 . 0 0 6 2 55 1 0 8 . 8 9 . 8 9 . 1 6 5 5 5 . 14881 . 1 1 3 9 . 0 . 0 0 6 5 0 . 0 0 6 0 130 1 0 2 . 1 0 5 . 2 3 5 . 2 5 0 2 5 . 1 8 4 9 6 . 1 6 3 7 . 0 . 0 0 4 1 0 . 0 0 5 7 1 32 1 0 3 . 9 7 . 6 3 8 . 1 9 5 7 5 . 1 5 7 1 8 . 2 7 4 5 . 0 . 0 0 5 3 0 . 0 0 6 2 T o t a l s 9 5 . 8 2 . 1 7 9 9 3 . 2 0 0 0 8 . 1 5 2 5 0 . 2 2 6 0 5 . 0 . 0 0 4 8 0 . 0 0 5 4 256 * * * D I S T R I B U T I O N o f HOUSING S E R V I C E S : V a n c o u v e r 05 (CMA) R E N T A L MODEL OWNER-•OCCUPIER MODEL ZONE R e n t R H S - r e n t # U n i t s V a l u e R H S - o w n # U n i t s A c t u a l 1 9 5 . 8 2 . 1 7 9 9 3 . 2 0 0 0 8 . 1 5 2 5 0 . 2 2 6 0 5 . 0 . 0 0 4 8 2 7 7 . 81 . 2 8 2 3 8 . 1 2 5 0 6 . 1 2 0 6 6 . 4 6 9 1 8 . 0 . 0 0 6 2 3 1 4 2 . 1 2 2 . 6 2 9 . 2 5 0 6 2 . 2 3 4 4 4 . 8 2 3 0 . 0 . 0 0 5 7 4 8 2 . 9 5 . 1 8 3 8 5 . 1 4 3 2 0 . 1 4 8 0 2 . 6 5 3 1 8 . 0 . 0 0 5 8 5 5 8 . 9 2 . 3 9 3 2 . 1 1 9 9 3 . 1 3 3 2 6 . 1 6 1 4 4 . 0 . 0 0 4 9 T o t a l s 8 3 . 8 6 . 6 9 1 7 7 . 1 4 9 1 2 . 1 4 3 5 6 . 1 5 9 2 1 7 . 0 . 0 0 5 6 R / V C a l c 0 . 0 0 5 4 0 . 0 0 6 7 0 . 0 0 5 2 0 . 0 0 6 4 0 . 0 0 6 9 0 . 0 0 6 0 The d i f f e r e n c e s b e t w e e n R H S - r e n t a n d t h e " a c t u a l " r e n t , a n d R H S - o w n a n d t h e " a c t u a l " v a l u e r e f l e c t t h e r e l a t i v e v a l u e o f n e i g h b o u r h o o d c o n d i t i o n s w i t h i n t h e i n d i v i d u a l t r a c t s a n d on a v e r a g e w i t h i n t h e z o n e s . An RHS l o w e r t h a n t h e " a c t u a l " i n d i c a t e s a p r e m i u m a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e n e i g h b o u r h o o d a t t r i b u t e s ; a h i g h e r RHS i n d i c a t e s a d i s c o u n t i n g a n d t h e r e f o r e an i n f e r i o r n e i g h b o u r h o o d . A 1 . 4 4 4 Q u a n t i t y A D J U S T O R s F r o m t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n " r e s i d e n t i a l s e r v i c e s " - r e n t o r v a l u e - a n d " r e l a t i v e h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s o b t a i n e d , z o n a l q u a n t i t y ADJUSTORS a r e c a l c u l a t e d w h i c h a l l o w t h e c o n v e r s i o n o f a d i s t r i b u t i o n o f " r e s i d e n t i a l " s e r v i c e s t o an e q u i v a l e n t d i s t r i b u t i o n o f r e l a t i v e " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s . The c a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e A D J U S T O R s on a z o n a l b a s i s i n v o l v e s two s t e p s . 1. t h e c a l c u l a t i o n f o r e a c h z o n e o f t h e r a t i o o f a v e r a g e R H S - r e n t t o t h e a v e r a g e r e n t a n d t h e e q u i v a l e n t f o r owned d w e l l i n g s ; R H S - o w n t o v a l u e . The w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e o f t h e s e t w o r a t i o s i s t a k e n a s t h e " a c t u a l " ADJUSTOR f o r t h e z o n e . 257 2 . t h e d i r e c t u s e o f t h e s e A D J U S T O R s w i l l r e s u l t i n a n " e f f e c t i v e " u n i t p r i c e f o r t h e " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s d i f f e r e n t f r o m o n e . F o r t h i s r e a s o n t h e s e a d j u s t o r s a r e t h e n d i v i d e d b y a n e q u i v a l e n t c i t y - w i d e A D J U S T O R , c a l c u l a t e d f r o m c e n s u s t r a c t d a t a , g i v i n g " w e i g h t e d A D J U S T O R s " , t o g i v e a CMA mean o f 1 . 0 0 . L i s t e d by z o n e b e l o w a r e t h e r e s p e c t i v e c a l c u l a t e d v a l u e s f o r t h e e x a m p l e c i t y . * * * " R e s i d e n t i a l " t o " R e l a t i v e H o u s i n g " S E R V I C E S q u a n t i t y ADJUSTOR R A T I O S : " R H S " / A C T U A L ADJUSTORS r e n t a l o w n e r " a c t u a l " " w e i g h t e d ( Z o n e 1) 0 . 8 5 7 2 0 . 7 6 2 2 0 . 8 0 4 3 0 . 7 9 5 3 ( Z o n e 2) 1 . 0458 0 . 9 6 4 8 0 . 9 9 5 2 0 . 9 8 4 1 ( Z o n e 3) 0 . 8 5 5 5 0 . 9 3 5 4 0 . 9 2 9 8 0 . 9 1 9 4 ( Z o n e 4) 1 . 1 5 7 6 1 . 0 3 3 6 1 . 0 6 0 9 1 . 0 4 9 0 ( Z o n e 5) 1 .5761 1 .1111 1 .2022 1 .1888 c i t y ADJUSTOR 1 .0113 T o t a l number o f u n i t s 2 2 8 3 9 2 . " A 1 . 4 4 5 Number o f " M o d e l " D w e l l i n g s A c t u a l h o u s i n g u n i t s w i t h i n an u r b a n a r e a a r e a l l o c a t e d t o " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s on a z o n a l b a s i s . The f i r s t s t e p i n v o l v e s t h e d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f t h e r a t i o o f a c t u a l d w e l l i n g s t o " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s , t h e n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s t o e a c h z o n e . T h e s e f a c t o r s a r e d e t e r m i n e d by t h e e n d - o f - t h e - d e c a d e number o f a c t u a l d w e l l i n g s p e r " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g , o r c o r r e s p o n d i n g l y t h e number o f a c t u a l h o u s e h o l d s p e r " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d t o be u t i l i z e d . The r e q u i r e d number o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s a s c a l c u l a t e d by t h e p r o g r a m " C Z O N E . F O R T " i s i n p u t on d a t a c a r d " 7 " . F r o m t h i s i n p u t v a l u e t h e p r o g r a m c a l c u l a t e s t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g number o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s p e r z o n e a n d i n d i c a t e s t h e a c c u r a c y o f t h e a l l o c a t i o n v i a 258 an e r r o r t e r m . T h e c a l c u l a t e d ERROR t e r m i n d i c a t e s t h e d e g r e e o f u n i f o r m i t y o f t h e r e p r e s e n t a t i o n by z o n e a f t e r t h e number o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s p e r z o n e i s r o u n d e d t o t h e n e a r e s t i n t e g e r v a l u e . The e r r o r t e r m i s c a l c u l a t e d a s t h e sum o v e r a l l t h e z o n e s o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e ( a f t e r r o u n d i n g ) b e t w e e n t h e s p e c i f i e d a n d t h e i m p l i e d number o f d w e l l i n g s p e r " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g f o r e a c h " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g . I n a d d i t i o n , e r r o r s on a r a n g e o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s s p e c i f i c a t i o n s a r e c a l c u l a t e d a s a c h e c k on t h e s p e c i f i e d a l l o c a t i o n . B e l o w i s a n e x a m p l e o u t p u t o f t h e s e c a l c u l a t i o n s f o r f o u r a l t e r n a t i v e s p e c i f i c a t i o n s , w i t h t h e r e q u i r e d s p e c i f i c a t i o n d e n o t e d . **•* NUMBER OF MODEL DWELLINGS V a n c o u v e r 05 Raw A d j u s t e d Raw A d j u s t e d # # / m o d e l # # / m o d e l # # / m o d e l # # / m o d e l T o t a l s 6 7 . 6 8 . 6 9 . 6 9 . ( Z o n e 1 ) 1 1 . 9 3 4 0 8 . 1 2 . 0 3 3 8 3 . 1 2 . 3 331 0 . 1 2 . 0 3 3 8 3 . ( Z o n e 2) 2 2 . 1 3 4 0 8 . 2 2 . 0 3 4 1 6 . 2 2 . 7 3 3 1 0 . 2 3 . 0 3 2 6 8 . ( Z o n e 3) 2 . 6 3 4 0 8 . 3 . 0 2 9 5 3 . 2 . 7 3 3 1 0 . 3 . 0 2 9 5 3 . ( Z o n e 4) 2 4 . 6 3 4 0 8 . 2 5 . 0 3 3 4 8 . 2 5 . 3 331 0 . 2 5 . 0 3 3 4 8 . ( Z o n e 5) 5 . 9 3 4 0 8 . 6 . 0 3 3 4 6 . 6 .1 331 0 . 6 . 0 3 3 4 6 . e r r o r : 3 7 1 2 . e r r o r : 4 0 9 2 . * * * * * * * * * * f g g U ^ j - g j j * * * * * * * * * * Raw A d j u s t e d Raw A d j u s t e d # # / m o d e l # # / m o d e l # # / m o d e l # # / m o d e l T o t a l s 71 . 71 . 7 3 . 7 3 . ( Z o n e 1) 1 2 . 6 321 6 . 1 3 . 0 3 1 2 3 . 1 3 . 0 3 1 2 8 . 1 3 . 0 31 2 3 . ( Z o n e 2) 2 3 . 4 321 6 . 2 3 . 0 3 2 6 8 . 2 4 . 0 3 1 2 8 . 2 4 . 0 31 3 2 . ( Z o n e 3) 2 . 8 321 6 . 3 . 0 2 9 5 3 . 2 . 8 3 1 2 8 . 3 . 0 2 9 5 3 . ( Z o n e 4) 2 6 . 0 321 6 . 2 6 . 0 321 9 . 2 6 . 8 3 1 2 8 . 2 7 . 0 3 1 0 0 . ( Z o n e 5) 6 . 2 321 6 . 6 . 0 3 3 4 6 . 6 . 4 3 1 2 8 . 6 . 0 3 3 4 6 . e r r o r : 4 0 5 4 . e r r o r : 2 7 3 6 . 259 I n r o u n d i n g t h e number o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s p e r z o n e t o t h e n e a r e s t i n t e g e r number t h e t o t a l number o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s may v a r y f r o m t h e " r e q u i r e d " . I n t h i s c a s e t h e p r o g r a m w i l l s t o p a n d mus t be r e r u n s p e c i f y i n g t h e number o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s p e r z o n e on C a r d 7 u s i n g an 13 f o r m a t . The p r o g r a m w i l l t h e n a u t o m a t i c a l l y f o r c e t h e r e q u i r e d d i s t r i b u t i o n . A 1 . 4 4 6 " M o d e l " D w e l l i n g s I n d i v i d u a l " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s a r e i d e n t i f i e d by t h e i r l e v e l o f i n i t i a l " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s a n d t h e z o n e i n w h i c h t h e y a r e l o c a t e d . T h e y a r e f o r m e d f r o m c e n s u s d a t a on r e n t a n d v a l u e d i s t r i b u t i o n s , a g g r e g a t e d by z o n e . T h e s e d a t a a r e d i s t r i b u t e d i n t e r m s o f one d o l l a r r e n t i n t e r v a l s o v e r t h e r a n g e o f 1 t o 250 f o r e a c h z o n e , t h e n t h e r a t i o o f a c t u a l d w e l l i n g s t o m o d e l d w e l l i n g s f o r t h e r e s p e c t i v e z o n e i s u s e d t o s p l i t t h e c o n t i n u u m o f a c t u a l d w e l l i n g s i n t o " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s . R e n t d a t a a r e a s s i g n e d d i r e c t l y w h i l e t h e o w n e r - o c c u p i e r v a l u e s a r e a s s i g n e d by d e f l a t i n g t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n b o u n d a r i e s by R / V ( c a l c . ) v a l u e s a t t h e c e n s u s t r a c t l e v e l . N o t e t h a t e a c h i n t e r v a l c l a s s i s u n i f o r m l y d i s t r i b u t e d a c r o s s t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g r a n g e . The l o w e r b o u n d on t h e b o t t o m i n t e r v a l s h a s b e e n s e t t o 1 f o r r e n t s , a n d $ 1 5 , 0 0 0 f o r v a l u e s , w i t h t h e u p p e r b o u n d on t h e h i g h e s t i n t e r v a l i s c o n s t r a i n e d t o a maximum " r e n t " o r " e f f e c t i v e " r e n t o f 2 5 0 . T h o s e u n i t s w h i c h r e p o r t " n o c a s h r e n t " a r e s i m p l y d i s t r i b u t e d u n i f o r m l y w i t h i n t h e r a n g e o f 30 t o 1 3 0 . F o r e a c h " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g , r e p r e s e n t i n g a s e c t i o n o f t h e r e n t c o n t i n u u m , t h e mean r e n t i s c o m p u t e d a l o n g w i t h t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g s t a n d a r d d e v i a t i o n . T h i s mean r e n t i s i n t e r p r e t e d a s t h e " r e s i d e n t i a l " s e r v i c e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g . The f i n a l s t e p i s t o o b t a i n t h e d e c a d e - s t a r t q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " 260 s e r v i c e s . T h i s s i m p l y i n v o l v e s m u l t i p l y i n g t h e mean r e n t by t h e r e s p e c t i v e z o n e ' s w e i g h t e d A D J U S T O R . F o l l o w i n g i s t h e r e n t c o n t i n u u m f o r a s i n g l e z o n e . T h e r e a r e 4 0 , 5 9 8 a c t u a l d w e l l i n g s i n t h i s z o n e t o be a l l o c a t e d t o 12 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s . " Q " r e p r e s e n t s t h e q u a n t i t y o f " r e s i d e n t i a l " s e r v i c e s , e q u i v a l e n t t o a d o l l a r o f m o n t h l y r e n t , w i t h t h e #UNITs b e i n g t h e number o f a c t u a l u n i t s a t e a c h i n t e r v a l . The " * " i n d i c a t e s t h e s e c t i o n s o f t h e c o n t i n u u m c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o e a c h " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g . 261 * * * MODEL D W E L L I N G S : D I S T R I B U T I O N o f S E R V I C E S : V a n c o u v e r 05 ( Z o n e 1) Number A c t u a l D w e l l i n g s : 4 0 5 9 8 . Number MODEL D w e l l i n g s : 1 2 . R a t i o o f A C T U A L t o MODEL: 3 3 8 3 . " Q " # u n i t s " Q " # u n i t s " Q " # u n i t s " Q " # u n i t s " Q " # u n i t s " Q " # u n i t *1 4 . 4 43 6 9 . 0 85 530 . 5 127 3 1 1 . 4 1 69 101 . 0 21 1 4 6 . 3 2 4 . 4 44 6 9 . 0 86 530 . 5 128 3 1 1 . 4 1 70 95 . 2 212 4 6 . 3 3 4 . 4 45 71 . 4 87 530 . 5 129 3 0 7 . 9 171 93 .'5 213 4 6 . 9 4 4 . 4 46 8 2 . 1 88 530 . 5 1 30 261 . 8 1 72 93 . 5 214 4 6 . 9 5 4 . 4 47 8 2 . 1 89 530 . 5 131 2 5 7 . 8 173 84 . 0 215 4 6 . 0 6 4 . 4 48 1 0 0 . 5 * 90 490 . 2 132 2 5 8 . 4 174 84 .8 216 51 . 1 7 4 . 4 49 1 1 5 . 3 91 490 . 2 133 2 4 9 . 8 1 75 64 . 6 217 51 . 1 8 5 . 0 50 1 4 3 . 6 92 490 . 2 * 1 34 251 . 5 176 64 . 6 218 51 . 1 9 5 . 0 51 1 4 3 . 6 93 490 . 2 1 35 251 . 5 1 77 64 . 6 219 5 3 . 2 10 5 . 0 52 1 5 8 . 8 94 490 . 2 1 36 251 . 5 1 78 64 . 6 220 5 7 . 0 1 1 5 . 0 53 1 5 8 . 8 95 490 . 2 1 37 2 4 0 . 3 179 64 . 6 221 5 7 . 0 12 5 . 0 54 1 5 8 . 8 96 490 . 2 138 2 1 3 . 8 180 64 . 6 222 5 6 . 4 13 5 . 0 55 1 5 8 . 8 * 97 490 . 2 139 2 1 3 . 8 181 62 . 7 223 5 6 . 4 1 4 5 . 0 56 1 5 8 . 8 98 490 . 2 1 40 2 0 0 . 4 1 82 62 . 2 224 5 6 . 4 1 5 5 . 0 57 1 5 8 . 8 99 490 . 2 141 1 9 3 . 5 183 62 . 2 225 5 5 . 8 1 6 5 . 0 58 1 5 8 . 8 100 470 .4 1 42 1 7 9 . 1 184 62 . 2 226 5 5 . 8 17 4 . 8 59 1 5 8 . 8 101 471 .4 1 43 1 7 9 . 1 185 60 . 4 227 5 5 . 8 18 7 . 6 60 2 0 3 . 6 102 474 . 0 1 44 1 7 0 . 1 186 60 . 4 228 5 5 . 8 19 8 . 4 * 61 2 0 3 . 6 1 03 476 . 9 1 45 1 7 0 . 1 187 58 . 5 229 5 5 . 8 20 8 . 6 62 2 0 3 . 6 * 1 04 486 . 3 146 1 7 0 . 1 188 55 . 2 230 5 5 . 8 21 8 . 6 63 2 0 3 . 6 1 05 486 . 5 1 47 1 7 0 . 1 189 55 . 2 231 5 5 . 8 22 8 . 6 64 2 0 3 . 6 1 06 486 . 5 1 48 1 7 0 . 1 190 53 .8 232 5 5 . 8 23 8 . 6 65 2 0 3 . 6 107 473 .4 1 49 1 6 1 . 3 191 53 .8 • 233 5 6 . 1 24 8 . 6 66 2 0 3 . 6 108 461 . 2 1 50 1 2 0 . 1 * 1 92 52 .8 234 5 6 . 1 25 8 . 6 67 2 0 3 . 6 109 461 . 2 151 1 2 0 . 1 1 93 52 . 8 235 5 7 . 6 26 8 . 6 68 2 0 3 . 6 1 1 0 347 . 3 1 52 1 2 0 . 1 1 94 52 .8 236 5 7 . 6 27 9 . 3 69 2 0 3 . 6 1 1 1 348 . 4 * 1 53 1 2 0 . 1 195 52 .8 237 5 7 . 5 28 9 . 3 70 2 5 9 . 1 *1 1 2 338 . 6 1 54 1 2 0 . 1 196 51 . 4 238 5 7 . 5 29 9 . 3 71 2 5 9 . 1 1 1 3 338 . 6 1 55 1 2 0 . 1 1 97 50 . 9 239 5 7 . 5 30 4 5 . 0 72 2 5 8 . 7 1 1 4 338 . 6 1 56 1 2 0 . 1 198 50 . 6 240 5 7 . 5 31 4 5 . 0 73 2 6 3 . 9 1 1 5 338 . 6 157 1 1 8 . 2 199 50 . 6 241 5 2 . 9 32 4 5 . 0 74 2 7 2 . 4 1 16 341 . 5 158 1 1 8 . 2 200 48 .3 242 5 2 . 9 33 4 5 . 0 75 2 8 0 . 3 1 1 7 335 . 4 159 1 1 3 . 5 201 48 .3 243 5 2 . 9 34 4 5 . 0 * 76 2 8 0 . 6 1 18 335 . 4 1 60 1 1 3 . 5 202 47 .8 244 3 9 . 8 35 4 5 . 0 77 2 9 9 . 9 1 19 335 . 4 161 1 0 3 . 9 203 47 .8 245 5 8 . 1 36 4 5 . 0 78 3 3 4 . 1 1 20 307 . 5 1 62 1 0 4 . 2 204 47 . 4 246 5 8 . 1 37 4 5 . 0 79 3 4 9 . 2 121 307 . 5 163 1 0 5 . 9 205 47 . 4 247 6 9 . 0 38 4 5 . 0 80 4 8 9 . 1 * 1 22 310 . 0 1 64 1 0 5 . 9 206 46 . 4 248 6 3 . 6 39 4 5 . 0 81 5 1 9 . 2 123 310 . 0 1 65 1 0 5 . 9 207 46 . 3 249 5 7 . 2 40 6 9 . 0 82 5 1 9 . 2 1 24 310 . 0 166 1 0 3 . 4 208 46 .3 *250 3 5 6 . 6 41 6 9 . 0 83 5 1 9 . 2 1 25 310 . 0 167 1 0 3 . 4 209 46 . 3 42 6 9 . 0 * 84 521 . 6 126 31 1 . 4 168 1 0 0 . 3 210 46 .3 262 The c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e d e r i v e d " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s ( t h e r e s i d e n t i a l a n d h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e a c h ) , a r e o u t p u t a f t e r e a c h z o n e ' s c o n t i n u u m . I n a d d i t i o n , a c o r r e s p o n d i n g d a t a r e c o r d f o r e a c h " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g i s w r i t t e n t o f i l e f o r i n p u t t o t h e p r o g r a m " S I M O 1 . F O R T " . The o u t p u t o f t h e s e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s f o r t h e s a m p l e z o n e a r e a s f o l l o w s : * * * MODEL D W E L L I N G S : D I S T R I B U T I O N o f S E R V I C E S : V a n c o u v e r 05 ( Z o n e 1) M o d e l R e s i d e n t i a l S E R V I C E S H o u s i n g N o . Mean S . D . S E R V I C E S 1 4 8 . 9 3 . 3 8 . 2 6 9 . • 6 3 . 5 5 . 3 8 0 . 3 9 . 6 4 . 4 8 7 . 3 6 . 6 9 . 5 9 4 . 41 . 7 5 . 6 1 0 1 . 4 2 . 8 0 . 7 1 0 8 . 4 2 . 8 6 . 8 1 1 7 . 5 0 . 9 3 . 9 1 2 8 . 5 4 . 1 0 2 . 10 1 4 2 . 6 8 . 1 1 3 . 1 1 1 6 9 . 9 5 . 1 3 5 . 1 2 2 2 5 . 1 9 0 . 1 7 9 . A p a r t i a l l i s t i n g o f t h e o u t p u t d a t a f i l e i s a s f o l l o w s : V a n c o u v e r 05 3 1 38 3 2 55 3 3 64 3 4 69 3 5 75 1961 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s 3 64 86 5 3 65 101 5 3 66 1 23 5 3 67 196 5 D e t a i l s o f t h e g e n e r a t e d 1961 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s a r e r e p o r t e d i n F i g u r e s A 3 : 0 4 . 263 A 1 . 4 5 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a : " D 7 1 . F O R T " T h i s s e c t i o n o u t l i n e s t h e p r o g r a m " D 7 1 . F O R T " u s e d t o g e n e r a t e t h e d a t a r e q u i r e d f o r t h e " c a l i b r a t i o n " s i m u l a t i o n r u n s . Two f o r m s o f c a l i b r a t i o n r u n s a r e r e q u i r e d ; t h o s e e s t i m a t i n g t h e GAMMA a n d t h o s e t h e BETA p a r a m e t e r s . The b a s i c d i f f e r e n c e i s t h a t i n c a l i b r a t i o n r u n s f o r t h e demand p a r a m e t e r s - GAMMAs - a s h o r t r u n m a r k e t s i t u a t i o n i s a p p r o x i m a t e d by a s s u m i n g a f i x e d s u p p l y , w h i l e t h e s u p p l y p a r a m e t e r s - B E T A s - a r e e s t i m a t e d i n a l o n g r u n m a r k e t s i t u a t i o n u s i n g t h e e s t i m a t e d GAMMA p a r a m e t e r s . The GAMMA e s t i m a t e s a r e made u s i n g 1971 " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s a n d d w e l l i n g s ; t h e BETA e s t i m a t e s u s i n g 1971 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s a n d 1961 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s . 1. GAMMAs - t h e s e p a r a m e t e r s a r e e s t i m a t e d by f i t t i n g 1971 " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s t o 1971 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s . T h i s i s a c h i e v e d by s e t t i n g BETA 1 a n d B E T A 2 e x o g e n o u s l y a t v a l u e s o f 1.0 a n d 0 . 0 r e s p e c t i v e l y . T h a t i s , t h e s u p p l y f u n c t i o n s o f t h e e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s a r e c o m p l e t e l y i n e l a s t i c , w i t h e a c h i n d i v i d u a l d w e l l i n g s u p p l y i n g a f i x e d q u a n t i t y o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s . T h i s r e q u i r e s t h e c r e a t i o n o f 1971 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s . 2 . B E T A s - t h e s e p a r a m e t e r s a r e e s t i m a t e d by f i t t i n g t h e 1971 " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s t o t h e 1961 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s g e n e r a t e d by t h e p r o g r a m " D 6 1 . F O R T " , p l u s new c o n s t r u c t i o n . I n o r d e r t o m e a s u r e t h e g o o d n e s s - o f - f i t o f t h e MODEL, u n d e r v a r i o u s p a r a m e t e r v a l u e s , a g a i n s t t h e a c t u a l m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a t o w h i c h i t i s b e i n g f i t t e d c o m p a r a t i v e s t a t i s t i c s on s e l e c t e d c r i t e r i a a r e c a l c u l a t e d by t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m . T h e s e c a l c u l a t i o n s a r e b a s e d on a n i n p u t d a t a s e t w h i c h c o n t a i n s , by 264 z o n e , t h e a c t u a l p r i c e a n d q u a n t i t y o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s , t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n by t y p e o f h o u s e h o l d s , t h e a v e r a g e i n c o m e a n d a u t i l i z a t i o n f a c t o r . The s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m p r o g r a m , i n " c a l i b r a t i o n " mode , c a l c u l a t e s e q u i v a l e n t n u m b e r s f r o m t h e s o l u t i o n a l l o c a t i o n a n d c a l c u l a t e s s t a t i s t i c s t h a t r e f l e c t t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e i n p u t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a n d t h e s o l u t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . The i n p u t d a t a s e t w i l l d i f f e r b e t w e e n t h e two " c a l i b r a t i o n " modes i n a s much a s t h e r e l a t i v e p r i c e s a n d t h e u t i l i z a t i o n f a c t o r s w i l l r e f l e c t t h e s h i f t f r o m t h e s h o r t r u n t o t h e l o n g r u n f o r m u l a t i o n . A 1 . 4 5 1 G e n e r a l O u t l i n e The i n p u t t o t h i s p r o g r a m i s d r a w n f r o m b o t h t h e 1961 a n d 1971 d a t a s e t s . The i n p u t f i l e s a r e : 1. h e d o n i c c o e f f i c i e n t s a n d n e i g h b o u r h o o d means f o r b o t h t h e 1961 a n d 1971 e q u a t i o n s f r o m t h e c o n t r o l d e c k 2 . 1961 a n d 1971 c e n s u s d a t a f r o m t h e f i l e s C M A 6 1 . I N P U T a n d C M A 7 1 . I N P U T 3 . z o n a l d i s t r i b u t i o n o f c e n s u s t r a c t s f r o m C M A 6 1 . Z N a n d C M A 7 1 . Z N 4 . c r o s s - t a b s b e t w e e n 1961 a n d 1971 f r o m f i l e C M A 7 1 . T A B The o u t p u t i s g r o u p e d i n t o t h r e e s e c t i o n s ; t h e f i r s t i s e q u i v a l e n t t o t h a t o f " D 6 1 . F O R T " b u t p r o d u c e s d a t a on t h e 1971 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s , t h e s e c o n d i n c l u d e s i n f o r m a t i o n on t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e c a l i b r a t i o n d a t a , w h i l e t h e t h i r d c o n s i s t s o f t h e two a l t e r n a t i v e s e t s o f c a l i b r a t i o n d a t a r e q u i r e d a s i n p u t t o " S I M 0 1 . F O R T " f o r t h e c a l i b r a t i o n c a l c u l a t i o n s . The p r o g r a m i s , i n f a c t , u s e d t w i c e t o g e n e r a t e t h e two a l t e r n a t i v e c a l i b r a t i o n d a t a s e t s . T h i s i s n e c e s s a r y b e c a u s e w i t h t h e GAMMA c a l i b r a t i o n , d w e l l i n g s c o n s t r u c t e d d u r i n g t h e 1 9 6 1 - 7 1 d e c a d e a r e t r e a t e d a s e x i s t i n g a t d e c a d e - e n d a n d t h u s t h e " m o d e l " r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s a r e g e n e r a t e d f o r o n l y t h e number o f z o n e s . W i t h BETA c a l i b r a t i o n s , 265 t h e d e c a d e - e n d c h a r a c t e r i s a t i o n mus t d i f f e r e n t i a t e b e t w e e n new a n d e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s . C o n s e q u e n t l y , t h e a d d i t i o n a l " z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n " i s c r e a t e d a n d t h e d e c a d e ' s new d w e l l i n g s a d d e d t o i t . A l l o c a t i o n s t o t h e o t h e r z o n e s a r e c o r r e s p o n d i n g l y r e d u c e d , r e s u l t i n g i n a d e c a d e - e n d " m o d e l " r e p r e s e n t a t i o n w i t h t h e a r t i f i c i a l new c o n s r u c t i o n z o n e i n c l u d e d . The f o l l o w i n g d e s c r i p t i o n e m p l o y s a s e t o f c o m p u t a t i o n s b a s e d on V a n c o u v e r d a t a a s an e x a m p l e . A 1 . 4 5 2 I n p u t D a t a The r e q u i r e d c o n t r o l c a r d d e c k f o r b o t h r u n s c o n s i s t s o f s e v e n t e e n c a r d s ; one t h e c o n t r o l , f o u r t h e 1971 h e d o n i c c o e f f i c i e n t s , f o u r t h e 1961 h e d o n i c c o e f f i c i e n t s , f o u r s e t s o f mean n e i g h b o u r h o o d v a l u e s , a n d f o u r f o r t h e a u x i l i a r y d a t a : mean i n c o m e a d j u s t o r s , t h e a n n e x e d z o n e , f h e r e q u i r e d number o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s a n d t h e a c t u a l " p r i c e s " o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n . 1. c o n t r o l a n d t i t l e c a r d ( 2 I 1 , I 2 , 5 A 4 ) 2 . 1971 r e n t a l m o d e l : s t r u c t u r a l c o e f f i c i e n t s ( 8 F 1 0 . 0 ) 3 . 1971 r e n t a l m o d e l : n e i g h b o u r h o o d c o e f f i c i e n t s ( 8 F 1 0 . 0 ) 4 . 1971 o w n e r m o d e l : s t r u c t u r a l c o e f f i c i e n t s ( 8 F 1 0 . 0 ) 5 . 1971 o w n e r m o d e l : n e i g h b o u r h o o d c o e f f i c i e n t s ( 8 F 1 0 . 0 ) 6 . 1961 r e n t a l m o d e l : s t r u c t u r a l c o e f f i c i e n t s ( 8 F 1 0 . 0 ) 7 . 1961 r e n t a l m o d e l : n e i g h b o u r h o o d c o e f f i c i e n t s ( 8 F 1 0 . 0 ) 8 . 1961 o w n e r m o d e l : s t r u c t u r a l c o e f f i c i e n t s ( 8 F 1 0 . 0 ) 9 . 1961 o w n e r m o d e l : n e i g h b o u r h o o d c o e f f i c i e n t s ( 8 F 1 0 . 0 ) 1 0 . 1971 d a t a means f o r 1971 n e i g h b o u r h o o d v a r i a b l e s ( 8 F 1 0 . 0 ) 1 1 . 1971 d a t a means f o r 1961 n e i g h b o u r h o o d v a r i a b l e s ( 8 F 1 0 . 0 ) 1 2 . 1961 d a t a means f o r 1971 n e i g h b o u r h o o d v a r i a b l e s ( 8 F 1 0 . 0 ) 1 3 . 1961 d a t a means f o r 1961 n e i g h b o u r h o o d v a r i a b l e s ( 8 F 1 0 . 0 ) 1 4 . t h e 1971 mean i n c o m e a d j u s t o r ( F 5 . 4 ) 1 5 . z o n e f o r a n n e x e d c e n s u s t r a c t s ( 1 2 ) 1 6 . t h e number o f 1971 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s r e q u i r e d ( 1 3 ) o r , t h e r e q u i r e d number o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s p e r z o n e ( 1 0 1 3 ) 1 7 . t h e a c t u a l " p r i c e s " o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n ( F 5 . 3 ) : P N . An e x a m p l e s e t o f p r o g r a m c o n t r o l c a r d s f o r V a n c o u v e r ' s "GAMMA" r u n w i t h f i v e z o n e s i s a s f o l l o w s . I n d i v i d u a l c a r d s a r e d e s c r i b e d i n t h e s u b s e q u e n t s e c t i o n s . 266 0105 V A N C O U V E R : 0 5 5 . 7 8 4 6 .221 1 - . 1 1 6 1 - . 1 7 2 7 - . 2 6 9 6 . 1 3 2 5 - . 1 0 1 9 8 . 4 8 0 2 . 1 2 8 7 - . 1 8 6 6 - . 2 2 2 2 - . 3 1 2 6 . 0 9 6 8 0 . 1549 4 . 1 2 1 9 . 2 0 2 5 - . 3 4 7 1 - . 1 6 0 8 . 5 5 1 3 0 . 2 3 6 1 . 2 6 2 0 - . 0 0 2 3 6 . 6 7 0 0 . 1 438 - . 4 1 2 4 - . 1 5 4 0 1 . 3 9 7 5 . 0 6 6 6 . 6 2 7 5 - . 0 0 0 8 0 9 . 0 4 1 4 . 2 0 8 0 9 . 0 4 1 4 . 2 0 8 0 6 5 . 8 . 1 4 2 3 . 2 2 5 1 8 . 1 423 . 2 2 5 1 5 3 . 4 . 9 6 7 2 4 7 04 0 1 8 0 2 6 0 0 4 0 4 3 0 0 9 1 . 4 4 0 1 . 9 8 0 n o t e : on c a r d 16 t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s i s s p e c i f i e d The c o n t r o l a n d d a t a c a r d h a s t h r e e d a t a f i e l d s ; t h e f i r s t ( c o l u m n 1) i n d i c a t e s w h e t h e r o r n o t t h e p r o g r a m f o r c e s t h e f i t t i n g o f t h e r e q u i r e d number o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s ( s e e " D W E L L 1 6 1 " f o r d e t a i l s ) . The s e c o n d , ( c o l u m n 2) i n d i c a t e s t h e t y p e o f c a l i b r a t i o n d a t a s e t t o be c r e a t e d (1 f o r t h e GAMMA s e t p l u s 1971 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s , 2 f o r t h e BETA s e t ) . F i e l d two ( c o l u m n s 3 - 4 ) c o n t a i n s t h e number o f z o n e s a n d f i e l d t h r e e ( c o l u m n s 5 - 2 4 ) t h e t i t l e . On l o a d i n g t h e t i t l e c a r d , t h e p r o g r a m c h e c k s t o e n s u r e t h a t t h e number o f z o n e s c o r r e s p o n d s t o t h a t s p e c i f i e d on b o t h C M A 6 1 . Z N a n d C M A 7 1 . Z N . An e r r o r s t o p s e x e c u t i o n . The p r o g r a m t h e n l o a d s t h e 1961 a n d 1971 c e n s u s t r a c t n u m b e r s f r o m C M A 6 1 . I N P U T a n d C M A 7 1 . I N P U T r e s p e c t i v e l y , a l o n g w i t h t h e z o n a l o r g a n i s a t i o n f r o m C M A 7 1 . T A B . The c o e f f i c i e n t s a n d means f o r t h e h e d o n i c e q u a t i o n s a r e t h e n l o a d e d a l o n g w i t h t h e i n c o m e d e f l a t o r a n d t h e z o n e f o r a n n e x e d t r a c t s f r o m t h e c o n t r o l d e c k . A summary o f t h i s i n p u t d a t a i s o u t p u t a s f o l l o w s . 267 * * * 1971 ZONAL O R G A N I S A T I O N : Z O N E : C . T . COUNT 1 28 2 37 3 9 4 80 5 18 6 6 * * * REVIEW o f INPUT DATA * * * ANNEXED ZONE - t h e a n n e x e d z o n e 6 i n c l u d e d i n z o n e 4 * * * 1971 INCOME ADJUSTOR - 0 . 9 6 7 2 * * * INPUT C O E F F I C I E N T S : 1971 HEDONIC EQUATION RENTAL MODEL S t r u c t u r a l OWNER-OCCUPIER MODEL N e i g h b o u r h o o d S t r u c t u r a l N e i g h b o u r h o o d CONSTANT 5 . 7 8 5 L N INCME 0 . 1 32 CONSTANT 8 . 4 8 0 0 . 0 %APT. - . 1 0 2 0 . 0 %BATH 0 . 2 2 1 0 . 0 %BATH 0 . 129 % 1 0 - 2 0 Y R - . 1 1 6 0 . 0 % 1 0 - 2 0 Y R - . 1 8 7 % 2 0 - 2 5 Y R - . 1 7 3 0 . 0 %20-25 - . 2 2 2 %OVER 25 - . 2 7 0 0 . 0 %OVER 25 - . 3 1 3 L N RMS 0 . 2 7 4 0 . 0 L N RMS 0 . 5 0 3 ! ;APT. 0.09 0.15 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 * * * I N P U T C O E F F I C I E N T S : 1961 HEDONIC EQUATION RENTAL MODEL OWNER-OCCUPIER MODEL S t r u c t u r a l N e i g h b o u r h o o d S t r u c t u r a l N e i g h b o u r h o o d CONSTANT 4 . 1 22 L N INCME 0 . 2 3 6 CONSTANT 6 . 6 7 0 L N INCME 0 . 0 6 % G . C O N D . 0 . 2 0 2 %APT. 0 . 2 6 2 % G . C O N D . 0 . 1 44 % A P T . 0 . 6 2 %BATH 0 . 0 A C C E S S - . 0 0 2 %BATH 0 . 0 A C C E S S - . 0 0 % 1 5 - 4 0 Y R - . 3 4 7 0 . 0 % 1 5 - 4 0 Y R - . 4 1 2 0 . 0 %OVER40 - . 161 0 . 0 %0VER40 - . 1 54 0 . 0 L N RMS 0 .551 0 . 0 L N RMS 1 . 3 9 8 0 . 0 * I N P U T MEANS o f NEIGHBOURHOOD v a r i a b l e s 1 971 d a t a 1971 e q u a t i o n L N INCME % A P T . 9 . 0 4 1 0 . 208 0 . 0 1 961 e q u a t i o n L N INCME % A P T . A C C E S S 9 . 0 4 1 0 . 208 6 5 . 0 0 0 1 961 d a t a 1971 e q u a t i o n L N INCME % A P T . 8 . 1 42 0 . 225 0 . 0 1961 e q u a t i o n L N INCME % A P T . A C C E S S 8 . 1 42 0 . 225 5 3 . 4 0 0 268 A 1 . 4 5 3 1971 " M o d e l " D w e l l i n g s The t e c h n i q u e u s e d f o r c r e a t i n g t h e 1971 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s g e n e r a l l y f o l l o w s t h a t o u t l i n e d i n t h e S e c t i o n A 1 . 4 4 : " 1 9 6 1 " D i s t r i b u t i o n o f H o u s i n g S e r v i c e s , s u b s e c t i o n s A 1 . 4 4 3 t o A 1 . 4 4 6 . The m a j o r d i f f e r e n c e s a r e t h a t t h e 1971 H e d o n i c e q u a t i o n s a r e u s e d , t h e r e q u i r e d number o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s m u s t c o r r e s p o n d t o t h e number o f " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s , a n d t h e b a s e p r i c e e m p l o y e d m us t r e f l e c t r e l a t i v e p r i c e c h a n g e s o v e r t h e d e c a d e . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e 1971 c e n s u s d a t a p r o v i d e s a d a t a b r e a k - d o w n by r e n t e r s a n d o w n e r s w h i c h e l i m i n a t e s t h e n e e d , a s i n 1 9 6 1 , t o s u b s t i t u t e t h e same v a l u e s f o r some o f t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s i n t o b o t h m o d e l s . S i n c e a l l 1971 d w e l l i n g s a r e t r e a t e d a s e x i s t i n g d u r i n g GAMMA c a l i b r a t i o n , t h e BETA c a l i b r a t i o n p r o c e s s w i l l d i f f e r e n t i a t e b e t w e e n e x i s t i n g a n d new d w e l l i n g s g i v i n g t h e t w o a l t e r n a t i v e s e t s o f 1971 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s w h i c h m us t be g e n e r a t e d . F o r t h e GAMMA c a l i b r a t i o n , t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f d w e l l i n g s t o z o n e m a t c h e s t h a t u s e d i n " D 6 1 . F 0 R T " . I n g e n e r a t i n g t h e BETA c a l i b r a t i o n d a t a o n l y t h o s e 1971 d w e l l i n g s i n e x i s t e n c e p r i o r t o 1961 a r e a l l o c a t e d t o t h e e x i s t i n g z o n e s ; a l l new d w e l l i n g s a r e a l l o c a t e d t o t h e z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n a n d t h u s t h e number o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s i n t h e e x i s t i n g z o n e s w i l l be r e d u c e d a c c o r d i n g l y . The r e s u l t i n g " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g d i s t r i b u t i o n w i l l c o r r e s p o n d t o t h e e x p e c t e d s o l u t i o n s e t g e n e r a t e d by a BETA c a l i b r a t i o n r u n . The t w o a l t e r n a t i v e d i s t r i b u t i o n s o f 100 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s , by z o n e , g e n e r a t e d f o r V a n c o u v e r a r e p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e A 3 : 0 4 . 2 6 9 GAMMA BETA mode mode zone d i s t r i b u t i o n d i s t r i b u t i o n 2 3 4 5 99 18 26 4 43 9 na 1 1 20 3 26 6 34 1 00 100 note: zone "99" i s the a r t i f i c i a l zone of new c o n s t r u c t i o n F i g u r e A1:04 VANCOUVER: D i s t r i b u t i o n of "Model" D w e l l i n g s . correspond to whether or not the new d w e l l i n g s are i s o l a t e d . That i s , f o r the BETA c a l i b r a t i o n data runs, the age and c o n d i t i o n data are a d j u s t e d to generate separate data f o r new and e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s . The 1971 Hedonic models used i n c a l c u l a t i n g the average RHSs are: RENTAL MODEL LOG(RHS-rent) = In d e r i v i n g the RHS's by t r a c t , the input data i s a d j u s t e d to CONSTANT + %BATH * p r o p o r t i o n r e n t a l d w e l l i n g s with bath + %10-20YR * p r o p o r t i o n r e n t a l d w e l l i n g s b u i l t 1951-1960 + %20-25YR * p r o p o r t i o n r e n t a l d w e l l i n g s b u i l t 1946-1950 + LN RMS . * LOG (average number rooms - r e n t a l d w e l l i n g s ) + LN INCME * the input value (card 10) f o r the l o g of the average income f o r a l l households i n the urban area. + %APT * the input value (card 10) f o r the p r o p o r t i o n of apartment d w e l l i n g s i n the urban area. 270 OWNER MODEL L O G ( R H S - o w n ) = CONSTANT + %BATH * p r o p o r t i o n o - o d w e l l i n g s w i t h b a t h + % 1 0 - 2 0 Y R * p r o p o r t i o n o - o d w e l l i n g s b u i l t 1 9 5 1 - 1 9 6 0 + % 2 0 - 2 5 Y R * p r o p o r t i o n o - o d w e l l i n g s b u i l t 1 9 4 6 - 1 9 5 0 + L N RMS * LOG ( a v e r a g e number r o o m s - o - o d w e l l i n g s ) + L N INCME * t h e i n p u t v a l u e ( c a r d 10) f o r t h e l o g o f t h e a v e r a g e i n c o m e f o r a l l h o u s e h o l d s i n t h e u r b a n a r e a . + %APT * t h e i n p u t v a l u e ( c a r d 10) f o r t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f a p a r t m e n t d w e l l i n g s i n t h e u r b a n a r e a . I n c r e a t i n g t h e " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s a n y a n n e x e d t r a c t s a r e a s s i g n e d t o t h e z o n e s p e c i f i e d on c a r d " 1 5 " . I n d e f a u l t , i n c o r r e c t o r m i s s i n g z o n e n u m b e r , t h e s e a n n e x e d t r a c t s a r e a s s i g n e d t o t h e z o n e w i t h t h e h i g h e s t a c c e s s v a l u e . I n g e n e r a t i n g t h e 1961 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s ( S e c t i o n A 1 . 4 4 4 ) , i t was n o t e d t h a t " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s p r i c e s w e r e c a l c u l a t e d a s s u m i n g a mean p r i c e p e r u n i t o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e o f 1 . 0 0 : t h e " a c t u a l " q u a n t i t y A D J U S T O R s b e i n g w e i g h t e d t o p r o v i d e t h i s mean p r i c e . A t d e c a d e - e n d t h i s p r i c e mus t be a d j u s t e d u p w a r d s t o r e f l e c t t h e n o m i n a l p r i c e i n c r e a s e s o v e r t h e d e c a d e . To g e n e r a t e t h e GAMMA s e t , one m u s t a s sume t h a t t h e m a r k e t i s i n e q u i l i b r i u m a t d e c a d e -e n d , a n d t h a t t h e r e l a t i v e e q u i l i b r i u m z o n a l p r i c e s a r e a f u n c t i o n o f t h e p r i c e o f "new h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s . T h a t i s , a t d e c a d e - e n d one mus t a d j u s t by z o n e f o r b o t h r e l a t i v e q u a l i t y l e v e l s a n d d i f f e r e n t i a l s i n " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s p r i c e i n c r e a s e s o v e r t h e d e c a d e . The l a t t e r d i f f e r e n t i a l s h a v e b e e n d e r i v e d u t i l i z i n g e s t i m a t e d h e d o n i c p r i c e i n d i c e s : t h i s p r o c e s s i s o u t l i n e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g S e c t i o n . The c a l c u l a t e d p r i c e i n d i c e s i n d i c a t e by z o n e 271 ( i n c l u d i n g t h e z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n ) , t h e r e l a t i v e p r i c e s o v e r t h e d e c a d e f r o m t h e b a s e p r i c e o f 1 .00 p e r u n i t o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e . A s w o u l d be a n t i c i p a t e d , t h e d e r i v e d v a l u e f o r t h e z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t f r o m t h e v a l u e d e r i v e d i n S e c t i o n A 1 . 2 1 . F o r t h i s r e a s o n t h e a c t u a l c a l c u l a t e d v a l u e s f o r PN a r e i n p u t s o t h a t t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e h e d o n i c a l l y d e r i v e d p r i c e s c a n be a d j u s t e d t o t h e s e v a l u e s . T h a t i s , t h e p r i c e p e r u n i t o f "new h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e i s s e t t o t h e i n p u t PN v a l u e s , a n d v a l u e s f o r t h e o t h e r z o n e s a r e r e d i s t r i b u t e d a c c o r d i n g l y . B e c a u s e o f t h e r e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e s t o c k , t h e c a l c u l a t e d h e d o n i c p r i c e i n d i c e s f o r t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k w i l l v a r y b e t w e e n t h e GAMMA a n d t h e BETA r u n s ; t h e same v a l u e b e i n g c a l c u l a t e d f o r t h e z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n i n b o t h r u n s . A s a r e s u l t o f t h i s n e e d f o r p r i c e a d j u s t m e n t s , t h e p r o g r a m c a l c u l a t e s two " w e i g h t e d " A D J U S T O R s ; one c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o a p r i c e o f 1 . 0 0 , a n d t h e s e c o n d t o t h e i n p u t w e i g h t e d P N . T h e s e A D J U S T O R s a r e a s f o l l o w s f o r V a n c o u v e r ' s GAMMA d a t a s e t r u n , w i t h t h e PN v a l u e s i n b r a c k e t s . * * * " R e s i d e n t i a l " t o " R e l a t i v e H o u s i n g " S E R V I C E S q u a n t i t y ADJUSTOR R A T I O S : " R H S " / A C T U A L ADJUSTORS r e n t a l o w n e r " a c t u a l " " w e i g h t e d " ( Z o n e 1 ) 0 . 9 5 6 5 0 . 7 4 5 7 0 . 8 7 7 8 0 . 8 3 3 8 0 . 6 0 4 4 ( Z o n e 2) 1 . 1 5 0 3 1 . 0 6 0 9 1 .1054 1 . 0 4 9 9 0 .7081 ( Z o n e 3) 0 . 7 0 7 1 0 . 7 0 5 9 0 . 7 0 6 1 0 . 6 7 0 6 0 . 5 7 2 6 ( Z o n e 4) 1 .1238 1 . 0571 1 . 0 7 9 2 1 . 0 2 5 0 0 .7101 ( Z o n e 5) 1 . 2 3 3 0 1 . 0 7 0 6 1 . 1 0 8 5 1 . 0 5 2 8 0 . 6 9 9 6 c i t y ADJUSTOR 1 . 0 5 2 9 C o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e t e c h n i q u e u s e d i n " D 6 1 . F O R T " , t h e d e c a d e -e n d q u a n t i t i e s o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s f o r t h e r e s p e c t i v e PNs a r e c a l c u l a t e d f r o m t h e d e r i v e d mean r e n t ( " r e s i d e n t i a l " s e r v i c e s ) f o r 272 e a c h " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g by m u l t i p l y i n g by t h e r e s p e c t i v e A D J U S T O R . The d e r i v e d " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s f o r V a n c o u v e r ' s Zone 1 u n d e r t h e t w o m o d e l s a r e a s f o l l o w s : * * * MODEL D W E L L I N G S : V A N C O U V E R : 0 5 [ "GAMMA" c a l i b r a t i o n s e t ] ( Z o n e 1) q u a n t i t y a d j u s t o r s 0 . 8 3 3 8 0 . 6 0 4 4 0 . 4 3 9 6 M o d e l R e s i d e n t i a l S E R V I C E S H o u s i n g S E R V I C E S N o . Mean S . D . 1 . 0 0 0 1 . 4 4 0 1 7 7 . 1 1 7 . 6 4 . 4 6 . 2 1 0 7 . 7 4 . 8 9 . 6 5 . 3 1 2 3 . 5 8 . 1 0 2 . 7 4 . 4 1 3 4 . 5 0 . 1 1 2 . 81 . 5 1 4 3 . 4 3 . 1 1 9 . 8 6 . 6 1 5 1 . 3 6 . 1 2 6 . 91 . 7 1 5 6 . 3 0 . 1 3 0 . 9 5 . 8 1 6 2 . 3 4 . 1 3 5 . 9 8 . 9 1 6 7 . 2 9 . 1 4 0 . 1 0 1 . 10 1 7 3 . 3 8 . 1 4 5 . 1 0 5 . 1 1 1 8 0 . 3 3 . 1 5 0 . 1 0 9 . 12 1 8 6 . 3 8 . 1 5 5 . 1 1 3 . 1 3 1 9 5 . 4 5 . 1 6 2 . 1 1 8 . 1 4 2 0 4 . 4 3 . 1 7 0 . 1 2 3 . 1 5 2 1 6 . 5 6 . 1 8 0 . 1 3 0 . 16 2 3 4 . 8 7 . 1 9 5 . 1 4 1 . 17 271 . 1 1 5 . 2 2 6 . 1 6 4 . 18 3 4 4 . 4 9 0 . 2 8 7 . 2 0 8 . * * * MODEL D W E L L I N G S : V A N C O U V E R : 0 5 [ " B E T A " c a l i b r a t i o n s e t ] ( Z o n e 1) q u a n t i t y a d j u s t o r s 0 . 8 5 5 6 0 . 6 4 1 5 0 . 4 6 6 5 M o d e l R e s i d e n t i a l S E R V I C E S H o u s i n g S E R V I C E S 1 7 6 . 1 0 8 . 6 5 . 4 9 . 2 1 1 2 . 8 6 . 9 6 . 7 2 . 3 1 3 1 . 61 . 1 1 2 . 8 4 . 4 1 4 4 . 5 7 . 1 2 3 . 9 2 . 5 1 5 6 . 5 7 . 1 3 4 . 1 0 0 . 6 1 6 7 . 4 9 . 1 4 3 . 1 0 7 . 7 1 7 9 . 5 6 . 1 5 3 . 1 1 5 . 8 1 9 3 . 6 5 . 1 6 5 . 1 2 4 . 9 2 1 1 . 7 8 . 1 8 1 . 1 3 5 . 10 241 . 1 0 9 . 2 0 6 . 1 5 5 . 1 1 3 1 4 . 2 7 5 . 2 6 9 . A s w i t h " D 6 1 . F O R T " t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e d e r i v e d " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s ( t h e r e s i d e n t i a l a n d h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e a c h ) a r e o u t p u t a f t e r e a c h z o n e ' s c o n t i n u u m b u t w i t h " h o u s i n g " 273 s e r v i c e s r e f l e c t i n g t h e t w o a l t e r n a t i v e mean p r i c e s : 1 . 0 0 , a n d t h e w e i g h t e d P N . I n a d d i t i o n , w i t h t h e GAMMA o p t i o n , a c o r r e s p o n d i n g d a t a r e c o r d f o r e a c h m o d e l d w e l l i n g i s w r i t t e n t o t h e GAMMA c a l i b r a t i o n d a t a f i l e . A 1 . 4 5 4 H e d o n i c P r i c e I n d i c e s The 1971 p r i c e o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s mus t r e f l e c t t h e i n c r e a s e o v e r t h e d e c a d e - f r o m an i n t i a l p r i c e o f 1 .00 - o f an i n i t i a l u n i t o f " r e l a t i v e h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e . T h i s r e q u i r e s t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f q u a l i t y a d j u s t e d p r i c e i n d i c e s . The t e c h n i q u e u s e d i n v o l v e s s u b s t i t u t i n g t h e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e v a l u e s f o r 1961 a n d 1971 -s t r u c t u r a l a n d n e i g h b o u r h o o d - i n t o b o t h t h e 1971 a n d 1961 HEDONIC e q u a t i o n s a n d e s t i m a t i n g t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g " h e d o n i c " v a l u e s . T h a t i s , f o r e a c h z o n e e i g h t h e d o n i c v a l u e s a r e c a l c u l a t e d ; f o u r f o r t h e R E N T A L , f o u r f o r t h e OWNER m o d e l . 1. R7171 r e n t a l : 1971 d a t a i n 1971 HEDONIC e q u a t i o n 2 . R7161 r e n t a l : 1971 d a t a i n 1961 HEDONIC e q u a t i o n g i v e s R71 = R 7 1 7 1 / R 7 1 6 1 3 . 07171 o w n e r : 1971 d a t a i n 1971 HEDONIC e q u a t i o n 4 . 07161 o w n e r : 1971 d a t a i n 1961 HEDONIC e q u a t i o n g i v e s 071 = 0 7 1 7 1 / 0 7 1 6 1 5 . R6171 r e n t a l : 1961 d a t a i n 1971 HEDONIC e q u a t i o n 6 . R6161 r e n t a l : 1961 d a t a i n 1961 HEDONIC e q u a t i o n g i v e s R61 = R 6 1 7 1 / R 6 1 6 1 7 . 06171 o w n e r : 1961 d a t a i n 1971 HEDONIC e q u a t i o n 8 . 06161 o w n e r : 1961 d a t a i n 1961 HEDONIC e q u a t i o n g i v e s 061 = 0 6 1 7 1 / 0 6 1 6 1 E a c h o f R 7 1 , 0 7 1 , R61 a n d 061 r e p r e s e n t c o n s t a n t q u a l i t y i n d i c e s f o r t h e d e c a d e . The z o n a l i n d i c e s , P I , a r e c a l c u l a t e d a s t h e g e o m e t r i c mean o f t h e s e v a l u e s . 274 P I = S Q R T { ( R 7 1 * * W R 7 1 ) * ( 0 7 1 * * W 0 7 1 ) * ( R 6 1 * * W R 6 1 ) * ( 0 6 1 * * W 0 6 1 ) } w h e r e W R 7 1 , W071 a r e r e s p e c t i v e l y p r o p o r t i o n s o f t h e z o n e ' s 1971 s t o c k t h a t a r e r e n t a l a n d o w n e r - o c c u p i e r , a n d W R 6 1 , W061 a r e t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g 1961 v a l u e s . F o r c h e c k i n g p u r p o s e s , t h e p r o g r a m o u t p u t s t h e d e t a i l e d c a l c u l a t i o n s o f t h e H e d o n i c v a l u e s f o r t h e t o t a l CMA a n d t h e mean v a l u e s o f t h e i n d e p e n d e n t s t r u c t u r a l v a r i a b l e s f o r e a c h z o n e . F o l l o w i n g i s t h e s a m p l e o u t p u t f o r t h e s u b s t i t u t i o n o f t h e 1971 d a t a i n t o t h e 1971 HEDONIC e q u a t i o n s * * * H E D O N I C A L L Y d e r i v e d P R I C E INDEX ( 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 7 1 ) C A L C U L A T I O N S : 1971 d a t a - 1971 e q u a t i o n s ( T o t a l CMA) R e n t a l : S t r u c t u r a l CONSTANT %BATH mean 0 . 0 0 . 5 5 7 0 0 . 9 3 6 6 c o e f 5 . 7 8 4 6 0 . 0 0 . 2 2 1 1 v a l u e 5 . 7 8 4 6 0 . 0 0 . 2 0 7 1 R e n t a l N e i g h b o u r h o o d L N INCME % A P T . mean 9 . 0 4 1 4 0 . 2 0 8 0 0 . 0 c o e f 0 . 1 3 2 5 - 0 . 1 0 1 9 0 . 0 v a l u e 1 . 1 9 8 0 - 0 . 0 2 1 2 0 . 0 O w n e r : S t r u c t u r a l % 1 0 - 2 0 Y R % 2 0 - 2 5 Y R %OVER 25 L N RM 0 . 1 7 3 4 0 . 0 7 8 7 0 . 2 8 8 2 3 . 8 0 2 • 0 . 1 1 6 1 • 0 . 0 2 0 1 - 0 . 1727 - 0 . 0 1 3 6 0 . 2 6 9 6 • 0 . 0 7 7 7 0 . 2 7 3 0 . 3 6 5 CONSTANT %BATH mean 0 . 0 0 . 1 7 0 7 0 . 9 9 0 9 c o e f 8 . 4 8 0 2 0 . 0 0 . 1 2 8 7 v a l u e 8 . 4 8 0 2 0 . 0 0 . 1 2 7 5 O w n e r : N e i g h b o u r h o o d L N INCME % A P T . mean 9 . 0 4 1 4 0 . 2 0 8 0 0 . 0 c o e f 0 . 0 9 6 8 0 . 1 5 4 9 0 . 0 v a l u e 0 . 8 7 5 2 0 . 0 3 2 2 0 . 0 A c t u a l R e n t 1 2 9 . % 1 0 - 2 0 Y R %20-25 0 . 2 8 6 0 0 . 1 4 0 1 • 0 . 1866 • 0 . 0 5 3 4 H e d o n i c 1 3 9 . A c t u a l V a l u e 2 8 7 4 4 . - 0 . 2 2 2 2 - 0 . 0 3 1 1 H e d o n i c 2 8 2 7 9 . %OVER 25 L N RM 0 . 3 2 2 1 6 . 2 2 4 0 . 3 1 2 6 • 0 . 1007 0 . 5 0 3 0 . 9 1 9 275 * * * H E D O N I C A L L Y d e r i v e d P R I C E I N D E X ( 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 7 1 ) ZONAL D A T A : 1971 d a t a - 1971 e q u a t i o n s R E N T A L : s t r u c t u r a l Zone CONSTANT %BATH %1 0 - 2 0 Y R %20 - 2 5 Y R %OVER 25 L N RMS 1 0 . 0 0 . 8 2 3 2 0 . 9 3 8 1 0 . 1919 0 . 0576 0 . 2 6 1 2 3 . 3 8 5 4 2 0 . 0 0 . 5891 0 . 8 9 5 7 0 . 1331 0 . 0880 0 . 4 5 3 8 3 . 7 3 2 0 3 0 . 0 0 . 1809 0 . 9 6 6 8 0 . 1763 0 . 0481 0 . 1 2 6 3 4 . 8 2 0 8 4 0 . 0 0 . 4024 0 . 9 6 6 5 0 . 1912 0 . 0788 0 . 1 7 0 7 4 . 0 4 9 5 5 0 . 0 0 . 1 232 0 . 9 6 5 2 0 . 1998 0 . 1 404 0 . 2 6 6 4 4 . 4 6 1 6 99 0 . 0 1 . 0000 1 . 0 0 0 0 0 . 0000 0 . 0000 0 . 0 0 0 0 3 . 7 3 6 3 OWNER: s t r u c t u r a l Zone CONSTANT %BATH %1 0 - 2 0 Y R %20 - 2 5 Y R %OVER 25 L N RMS 1 0 . 0 0 . 21 69 0 . 9 9 3 0 0 . 1 497 0 . 1419 0 . 6 0 7 9 6 . 9 3 0 5 2 0 . 0 0 . 2523 0 . 9 8 6 5 0 . 1553 0 . 1841 0 . 5 6 8 3 5 . 7 6 7 9 3 0 . 0 0 . 0851 0 . 9 9 7 6 0 . 4904 0 . 1098 0 . 1 7 8 6 7 . 7 7 7 3 4 0 . 0 0 . 1 531 0 . 9 9 2 7 0 . 3498 0 . 1275 0 . 1 9 5 0 6 . 1 7 4 9 5 0 . 0 0 . 0852 0 . 9 8 6 7 0 . 3039 0 . 1218 0 . 1 8 4 7 5 . 9 3 9 3 99 0 . 0 1 . 0000 1 . 0 0 0 0 0 . 0000 0 . 0000 0 . 0 0 0 0 6 . 2 7 8 6 A c t u a l A c t u a l R e n t H e d o n i c V a l u e H e d o n i c z o n e 1 1 4 2 . 1 3 6 . 37541 . 2 7 9 9 9 . 2 1 1 5 . 1 3 2 . 24081 . 2 5 5 5 6 . 3 2 2 2 . 1 5 7 . 4 5 4 3 7 . 3 2 0 8 9 . 4 1 3 1 . 1 4 7 . 2 7 5 1 9 . 2 9 0 4 8 . 5 1 1 8 . 1 4 5 . 2 6 9 8 9 . 2 8 8 3 7 . 99 1 6 0 . 1 4 3 . 3 2 6 9 0 . 2 9 8 4 1 . B e c a u s e t h e q u a l i t y o f t h e h e d o n i c : m o d e l s s u f f e r s f r o m a l a c k o f s u i t a b l e i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s , t h e s e d e r i v e d p r i c e i n d i c e s a r e t r e a t e d a s r e l a t i v e v a l u e s a n d , a s n o t e d e a r l i e r , a r e a d j u s t e d a c c o r d i n g t o t h e new c o n s t r u c t i o n p r i c e , P N . 276 A 1 . 4 5 5 C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a U n d e r t h e two a l t e r n a t i v e p r o g r a m o p t i o n s , c a l i b r a t i o n d a t a s e t s a r e g e n e r a t e d f r o m t h e c e n s u s d a t a w i t h d a t a v a l u e s e q u i v a l e n t t o " v a l u e s " c a l c u l a t e d by t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m p r o g r a m . B o t h s e t s r e f l e c t a c t u a l p e r i o d - e n d c o n d i t i o n s , t h e d i f f e r e n c e i s i n t h e v a l u e f o r t h e r e l a t i v e p r i c e o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s , t h e u t i l i z a t i o n f a c t o r a n d more i m p o r t a n t l y , i n t e r m s o f t h e r e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f t h e a c t u a l d w e l l i n g s t o t h e z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n . I n e a c h s e t , f o r e a c h z o n e i n c l u d i n g t h e " z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n " , t w e l v e d a t a v a l u e s a r e c a l c u l a t e d . 1. t h e a c t u a l 1971 p r i c e o f a u n i t o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e ( f i e l d 1) 2 . t h e a c t u a l 1971 d i s t r i b u t i o n o f h o u s i n g t y p e s i n t h e z o n e o u t p u t a s e i g h t d a t a f i e l d s ( f i e l d s 2 - 9 ) e a c h b e i n g t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e r e s p e c t i v e h o u s e h o l d t y p e i n t h e z o n e 3 . t h e a v e r a g e 1971 h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e i n t h e z o n e ( f i e l d 10) 4 . t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k u t i l i z a t i o n f a c t o r ( f i e l d 1 1 ) ; t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e p e r i o d - s t a r t s t o c k o c c u p i e d a t p e r i o d - e n d 5 . t h e a v e r a g e q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s c o n s u m e d i n 1971 ( f i e l d 12) T h r e e c o m p o n e n t s o f t h e s e d a t a a r e d e r i v e d by common means f o r b o t h c a l i b r a t i o n s d a t a s e t s . T h e y a r e t h e 1971 d i s t r i b u t i o n o f h o u s e h o l d T Y P E s , t h e i r a v e r a g e i n c o m e a n d t h e 1971 a v e r a g e q u a n t i t i e s o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s c o n s u m e d . The v a r i a t i o n i n v a l u e s l i e s i n t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n , by z o n e , o f t h e h o u s i n g s t o c k . The d i s t r i b u t i o n o f h o u s e h o l d t y p e s by z o n e i s c a l c u l a t e d a s t h e w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e o f t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g c e n s u s t r a c t d i s t r i b u t i o n s . F o r t h e a s s u m p t i o n s u s e d i n c a l c u l a t i n g t h e c e n s u s d i s t r i b u t i o n s s e e S e c t i o n A 1 . 1 1 : Raw D a t a . The i n c o m e v a l u e i s s i m i l a r l y c a l c u l a t e d a s t h e w e i g h t e d mean o f t h e t r a c t s ' a v e r a g e h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e . The z o n a l a v e r a g e q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s a r e d e r i v e d on a z o n a l b a s i s f r o m t h e q u a n t i t i e s o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s 277 a s s i g n e d t h e i n d i v i d u a l " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s . The c a l i b r a t i o n v a l u e i s s i m p l y t h e mean o f t h e q u a n t i t i e s a s s i g n e d . W i t h t h e "GAMMA" d a t a s e t t h i s v a l u e r e f l e c t s t h e a v e r a g e q u a n t i t y o f " r e l a t i v e h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s c o n s u m e d i n t h e z o n e i n 1971 w i t h o u t a d j u s t m e n t f o r new c o n s t r u c t i o n ; w i t h t h e " B E T A " s e t t h e a d j u s t m e n t f o r new c o n s t r u c t i o n i s made . I n c a l i b r a t i n g t h e MODELS f o r t h e G A M M A ' s , s h o r t r u n m a r k e t s i t u a t i o n , t h e a i m i s t o a d j u s t t h e v a l u e o f t h e GAMMA p a r a m e t e r s u n t i l t h e 1971 " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s c o n s u m e a l l t h e i n p u t 1971 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s : t h e number o f e a c h n o m i n a l l y s e t a t 1 0 0 . S i n c e i n f o r m i n g t h e " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s t h e q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s i s a d j u s t e d s o t h a t t h e 1971 p r i c e p e r u n i t o f new " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e i s t h e new c o n s t r u c t i o n p r i c e , P N , t h e e x p e c t e d s o l u t i o n p r i c e f o r e a c h " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g , c o r r e s p o n d i n g l y t h e z o n e ' s a v e r a g e , i s a f u n c t i o n o f t h e v a l u e o f PN e m p l o y e d . The p r i c e s o u t p u t i n t h e c a l i b r a t i o n d a t a s e t s a r e d e r i v e d v i a t h e h e d o n i c p r i c e i n d i c e a n d a d j u s t e d t o t h e i n p u t " w e i g h t e d " PN v a l u e . S i m i l a r l y , t h e u t i l i z a t i o n f a c t o r ( f i e l d 11) w i l l be 1 .00 r e p r e s e n t i n g one h u n d r e d p e r c e n t u s a g e o f t h e 1971 s t o c k . S i n c e t h e s h o r t r u n m a r k e t s i t u a t i o n a s s u m e s t h a t no new d w e l l i n g s a r e c o n s t r u c t e d , t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g d a t a f o r t h e " z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n " i s s e t t o z e r o . I n c a l i b r a t i n g f o r t h e B E T A ' S , l o n g r u n m a r k e t s i t u a t i o n , t h e p r i c e a n d t h e u t i l i z a t i o n f a c t o r s m u s t r e p r e s e n t a c t u a l c h a n g e s o v e r t h e 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 7 1 d e c a d e . The u t i l i z a t i o n f a c t o r i s s i m p l y c a l c u l a t e d a s t h e r a t i o o f t h e 1971 d w e l l i n g s d e s i g n a t e d a s b e i n g b u i l t i n o r p r i o r t o 1 9 6 1 , f r o m C M A 7 1 . I N P U T , a n d t h e t o t a l number o f d w e l l i n g s i n 1 9 6 1 , f r o m C M A 6 1 . I N P U T . T h e p r i c e s a r e t h o s e d e r i v e d v i a t h e h e d o n i c p r i c e i n d i c e s a n d 278 a d j u s t e d t o t h e " w e i g h t e d " P N . T h e s e c a l i b r a t i o n d a t a a r e o u t p u t t o t h e r e s p e c t i v e d a t a f i l e s . C o r r e s p o n d i n g r e c o r d s a r e w r i t t e n t o h a r d c o p y a s f o l l o w s : * * * C A L I B R A T I O N DATA WRITTEN t o F I L E : V A N C O U V E R : 0 5 [ "GAMMA" c a l i b r a t i o n s e t ] 70 1 1 . 4 3 8 . 0 3 2 .241 .041 .141 . 1 0 6 . 0 9 8 . 2 0 2 . 1 39 10570 1 . 0 0 0 1 03 70 2 1 . 5 4 6 . 0 6 4 . 3 4 8 . 0 5 0 . 1 1 5 . 1 04 . 0 6 9 . 1 46 . 1 03 8220 1 . 0 0 0 92 70 3 1 . 221 . 0 5 8 .591 . 0 3 2 . 1 34 . 0 8 6 .011 . 0 5 0 . 0 3 9 18876 1 . 0 0 0 1 22 70 4 1 . 5 0 5 . 0 9 5 .491 . 0 5 8 . 1 1 5 . 0 7 8 .031 . 0 7 2 . 0 6 0 10058 1 . 0 0 0 100 70 5 1 . 5 6 9 . 0 8 8 . 4 8 3 . 0 4 8 . 1 04 . 1 2 6 . 0 1 7 . 0 5 6 . 0 7 8 9 4 0 9 1 . 0 0 0 92 7099 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 0 . 0 * * * C A L I B R A T I O N DATA WRITTEN t o F I L E : V A N C O U V E R : i 05 [ " B E T A " c a l i b r a t i o n : s e t ] 70 1 1 . 4 1 0 . 0 3 6 . 2 8 3 . 0 3 9 . 1 38 . 1 1 2 . 0 8 2 . 1 78 . 1 3 2 1 1 223 0 . 9 8 9 102 70 2 1 . 5 4 6 . 0 6 5 . 3 6 2 . 0 4 7 . 1 1 3 . 107 . 0 6 3 . 1 4 0 . 1 0 2 8347 0 . 9 4 5 89 70 3 1 . 3 5 6 . 0 5 8 . 6 0 0 .031 . 1 29 . 0 8 5 . 0 1 2 . 0 4 7 . 0 3 8 1 9221 1 . 0 0 0 1 04 70 4 1 . 5 8 8 .091 . 4 9 4 . 0 5 4 . 1 1 6 . 0 8 4 . 0 2 8 .071 . 0 6 2 1 0086 1 . 0 0 0 90 70 5 1 . 6 3 4 . 0 8 6 . 4 7 5 . 0 4 7 . 1 02 . 1 33 . 0 1 7 . 0 5 8 . 0 8 2 9131 0 . 9 5 5 86 70 6 1 . 4 4 0 . 0 8 0 .401 . 0 5 7 .121 . 0 8 4 . 0 5 8 . 1 1 7 . 0 8 3 9 7 5 6 1 . 0 0 0 123 T h e s e d a t a a r e r e p o r t e d on a CMA b a s i s i n F i g u r e s A 3 : 1 3 A 1 . 4 5 6 M i n i m u m Q u a n t i t y o f New S e r v i c e s When s i m u l a t i o n s p r o v i d e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s w i t h a n o p t i o n t o consume new " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s a c o n s t r a i n t i s i m p o s e d on t h e m i n i m u m l e v e l o f s e r v i c e s i n r e c o g n i t i o n o f s t r u c t u r a l a n d o t h e r r e g u l a t i o n s t y p i c a l l y i m p o s e d on new u n i t s by l o c a l g o v e r n m e n t . The U l c a l c u l a t e d t h i s m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y v a l u e f r o m t h e a v e r a g e r e n t ( i n c l u d i n g i m p u t e d r e n t on o w n e r - o c c u p i e d u n i t s ) o f t h e l o w e s t r e n t " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g c o n s t r u c t e d o v e r t h e d e c a d e ; t h a t i s , o f t h e l o w e s t " n " a c t u a l d w e l l i n g s w h e r e " n " i s t h e number o f a c t u a l d w e l l i n g s p e r m o d e l d w e l l i n g (de Leeuw a n d S t r u y k ( 1 9 7 5 , p 7 4 ) ) . T h i s a v e r a g e r e n t f i g u r e i s t h e n d e f l a t e d by t h e a v e r a g e p r i c e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n o v e r t h e d e c a d e , P N , t o o b t a i n t h e m i n i m u m 279 q u a n t i t y o f s e r v i c e s , Q M . The e q u i v a l e n t p r o c e s s i s p e r f o r m e d i n " D 7 1 . F 0 R T " by g e n e r a t i n g t h e " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s f o r t h e z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n . The v a l u e s f o r QM c a n t h u s be t a k e n d i r e c t l y f r o m t h e a s s i g n e d q u a n t i t i e s f o r t h e s e " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s . B e c a u s e o f " n o i s e " i n t h e v a l u e d i s t r i b u t i o n a n d t o a l l o w f o r d e p r e c i a t i o n o f s t o c k c o n s t r u c t e d i n t h e e a r l i e r s t a g e o f t h e d e c a d e , t h e v a l u e s f o r QM a r e t a k e n a s t h e " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e s e c o n d l o w e s t new " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g g e n e r a t e d . T h e s e v a l u e s r e p r e s e n t t h e e f f e c t i v e d e c a d e - e n d q u a n t i t y u n d e r t h e a l t e r n a t i v e PN a s s u m p t i o n s . T h i s t h e n a s s u m e s t h a t t h i s c o n s t r a i n t r e p r e s e n t s a c o n s t a n t r e a l q u a n t i t y o v e r t h e d e c a d e . The e s t i m a t e d v a l u e s f o r t h e e i g h t s e l e c t e d CMAs u n d e r t h e two a l t e r n a t i v e PNs a r e p r e s e n t e d i n F i g u r e A1 : 0 5 C a l c u l a t e d Q M ' s w e i g h t e d 1971 CMA PN PN C a l g a r y 5 0 . 3 3 9 . 3 K i t c h e n e r 6 2 . 2 4 7 . 9 Quebec C i t y 4 4 . 6 3 6 . 3 S t . J o h n ' s 3 4 . 1 2 7 . 9 S a s k a t o o n 4 7 . 2 3 7 . 5 S u d b u r y 2 7 . 3 2 3 . 0 V a n c o u v e r 5 6 . 7 4 1 . 2 W i n n i p e g 5 4 . 6 4 5 . 7 F i g u r e A 1 : 0 5 M i n i m u m Q u a n t i t i e s o f New S e r v i c e s . The m a j o r i t y o f t h e v a r i a n c e i n t h e s e m e a s u r e m e n t s r e s u l t s f r o m t h e v a r i a t i o n i n h o u s i n g c o s t s by CMA T h e s e e s t i m a t e s o f QM a r e b a s e d on t h e q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s a d o l l a r w o u l d b u y a t d e c a d e - s t a r t . T h u s , w h e r e h o u s i n g c o s t s a r e l o w , a u n i t o f QM r e p r e s e n t s more " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s t h a n w h e r e h o u s i n g c o s t s a r e 280 high. Factors such as building code standards and zoning requirements w i l l also a f f e c t the r e l a t i v e values. 281 A 1 . 5 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : S O L U T I O N ALGORITHM : " S I M O 1 . F O R T " T h i s s e c t i o n d e s c r i b e s t h e c o m p u t e r p r o g r a m , " S I M O 1 . F O R T " , d e v e l o p e d f o r s o l v i n g t h e O R I G I N A L HOUSING MARKET MODEL; a m a t h e m a t i c a l f o r m u l a t i o n o f t h e c h a n g e s o v e r a t e n y e a r p e r i o d i n t h e p r i c e a n d q u a n t i t y o f h o u s i n g i n a n u r b a n a r e a . G i v e n t h e s u p p l y a n d demand f o r m u l a t i o n s o f t h e O R I G I N A L MODEL, a n d c o r r e s p o n d i n g z o n a l s p e c i f i c a t i o n s , a r e l a t i v e l y s i m p l e a l g o r i t h m i s e m p l o y e d t o g e n e r a t e s o l u t i o n c o n d i t i o n s . The a l g o r i t h m u s e d i n t h i s p r o g r a m f o l l o w s t h a t s p e c i f i e d i n M a c R a e ( 1 9 7 8 ) a n d a s s i g n s " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s t o " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s , new i f d e s i r e d , s o t h a t h o u s e h o l d s h a v e no m o t i v a t i o n t o c h a n g e t h e i r l e v e l o f c o n s u m p t i o n . The s o l u t i o n c o n d i t i o n s a r e : 1. a l l o c a t e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s t o " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s i n s u c h a manner t h a t t h e y p a y t h e maximum a m o u n t t h e y a r e w i l l i n g t o ; g i v e n i n c o m e a n d p r e f e r e n c e s . T h a t i s , no h o u s e h o l d s e l e c t s a d w e l l i n g a t an e q u i l i b r i u m p r i c e l e s s t h a n t h a t w h i c h t h e y a r e w i l l i n g t o p a y , a n d 2 . o b t a i n c a l c u l a t e d z o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s e q u a l t o t h e i n i t i a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s on w h i c h t h e d w e l l i n g s e l e c t i o n s w e r e b a s e d . T h i s c o m p u t e r p r o g r a m h a s b e e n w r i t t e n i n M T S : F O R T R A N u t i l i z i n g o n l y g e n e r a l l i b r a r y f u n c t i o n s , m a k i n g i t s u i t a b l e f o r I B M s y s t e m u s a g e i n b a t c h m o d e . The f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s h a v e b e e n o r d e r e d t o c o r r e s p o n d t o p r o g r a m l o g i c ; f r o m i n i t i a l i z a t i o n t h r o u g h d a t a i n p u t t o t h e c a l c u l a t i o n s a n d o u t p u t . The g e n e r a l s t r u c t u r e o f t h e p r o g r a m i s o u t l i n e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g f l o w c h a r t ( F i g u r e A 1 : 0 6 ) . I n t r o d u c t i o n i n i t i a l i z a t i o n I n i t i a l i z a t i o n a n d I n p u t i n p u t a n d o u t p u t o f t h e i n p u t d a t a I n i t i a l c a l c u l a t i o n s P a r a m e t e r i t e r a t i o n l o o p S o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m l o o p C a l i b r a t i o n o r B a s e mode o u t p u t c a l c u l a t e e x o g e n o u s v a r i a b l e s s e t p a r a m e t e r s i f l o o p i n g c a l c u l a t e f u l l u t i l i t y I o r d e r e a c h h o u s e h o l d ' s d w e l l i n g s t a c k a l l o c a t e h o u s e h o l d s among d w e l l i n g s c a l c u l a t e " a c t u a l " e x t e r n a l i t i e s I o u t p u t I t e s t i f " i n i t i a l " a n d " c a l c u l a t e d " e x t e r n a l i t i e s w i t h i n t o l e r a n c e . I o u t p u t " c a l i b r a t i o n " o r " b a s e " i n f o r m a t i o n I c h e c k i f p a r a m e t e r l o o p r e s e t e x t e r n a l i t i e s t o " c a l c u l a t e d " v a l u e s — no - -y e s s t o p F i g u r e A 1 : 0 6 F l o w C h a r t o f P r o g r a m S t r u c t u r e : " S I M O 1 . F O R T " 283 A 1 . 5 1 G e n e r a l O u t l i n e . T h i s p r o g r a m c o n s i s t s o f f i v e g e n e r a l " s u b r o u t i n e s " a n d a " c o n t r o l " s e c t i o n w i t h m u l t i p l e e n t r y p o i n t s i n t h e c a l c u l a t i n g a n d o u t p u t " s u b r o u t i n e s " . To e n a b l e t h e r e a d e r t o r e l a t e t o t h e a c t u a l i n p u t a n d o u t p u t o f t h e p r o g r a m t h i s d e s c r i p t i o n i s b a s e d on a n e x a m p l e s i m u l a t i o n . F o r s i m p l i c i t y , t h e e x a m p l e u s e d h a s t h e i n p u t r e s t r i c t e d t o s e v e n " m o d e l " e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s l o c a t e d i n two " z o n e s " , w i t h t h e t h i r d " z o n e " b e i n g t h a t f o r new c o n s t r u c t i o n . " M o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s h a v e c o r r e s p o n d i n g l y been r e s t r i c t e d t o t e n , w i t h t h e " T Y P E " o p t i o n r e s t r i c t e d t o t w o . I n n o r m a l u s a g e t h e number o f e x i s t i n g " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s r a n g e s f r o m a p p r o x i m a t e l y 65 t o 1 0 0 , w i t h f i v e t o t e n " z o n e s " . T h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g number o f " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s w i l l be i n t h e r e g i o n o f 1 0 0 , w i t h e i g h t " T Y P E " s p e c i f i c a t i o n s t h e s t a n d a r d . The p r o g r a m may be u s e d i n one o f t h r e e modes 1. i n " c a l i b r a t i o n " mode t o e s t i m a t e , v i a s i m u l a t i o n , t h e GAMMA a n d t h e BETA p a r a m e t e r s , 2 . i n " b a s e " mode t o g e n e r a t e a b a s e c a s e f o r t h e u r b a n a r e a u n d e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n , a n d 3 . i n " p o l i c y " mode w h e r e i n p o l i c y p a r a m e t e r s c a n be e n t e r e d a l l o w i n g t h e s i m u l a t i o n o f t h e a f f e c t s o f a l t e r n a t i v e m a r k e t i n t e r v e n t i o n s . The b a s i c d e s c r i p t i o n i n c o r p o r a t e s t h e f e a t u r e s o f t h e t w o a l t e r n a t i v e s t a n d a r d " c a l i b r a t i o n " r u n s w i t h t h e e x a m p l e b e i n g f o r a BETA " c a l i b r a t i o n " r u n . D e t a i l s on t h e a l t e r n a t i v e " b a s e " a n d " p o l i c y " r u n s a r e o u t l i n e d i n t h e s u b s e q u e n t s e c t i o n s : A 1 . 5 8 : " B a s e " Mode a n d A 1 . 5 9 : P o l i c y M o d e . The o n l y s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n " c a l i b r a t i o n " mode a n d t h e two a l t e r n a t i v e modes i s t h a t w i t h t h e f o r m e r t h e b e h a v i o u r a l p a r a m e t e r v a l u e s a r e v a r i e d , w i t h s p e c i a l r e s t r i c t i o n s on t h e a l l o c a t i o n a l g o r i t h m . The 284 l a t t e r i n v o l v e s t h e a d d i t i o n a l i n p u t o f p o l i c y p a r a m e t e r s u s i n g a f i x e d s e t o f b e h a v i o u r a l p a r a m e t e r s . A 1 . 5 2 I n i t i a l i z a t i o n a n d I n p u t . The p r o g r a m i n i t i a l i z e s by s e t t i n g a l l s t o r a g e a r r a y e l e m e n t s t o z e r o a n d t h e n i n p u t s t h e r e q u i r e d d a t a . E a c h i n p u t r e c o r d i s i d e n t i f i e d by a f o u r - c h a r a c t e r c o d e , c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e f i r s t f o u r c o l u m n s o f t h e i n p u t r e c o r d , w i t h d a t a b e i n g s p a c e d i n f i v e c o l u m n f i e l d s a c r o s s t h e r e m a i n d e r o f t h e r e c o r d . The s t a n d a r d i n p u t f o r m a t f o r a l l i n p u t r e c o r d s i s ( 2 1 2 , 1 2 F 5 . 0 ) . T h i s b a s i c i n p u t t o t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m i s c r e a t e d by t h e u t i l i t y p r o g r a m s " D 6 1 . F O R T " , " H H 1 . F O R T " a n d " C Z O N E . F O R T " , w i t h a d d i t i o n a l i n p u t f r o m t h e i n p u t c o n t r o l d e c k . A d d i t i o n a l d a t a n e c e s s a r y f o r c a l i b r a t i o n i s c r e a t e d by t h e u t i l i t y p r o g r a m " D 7 1 . F O R T " . I n p u t i s c l a s s i f i e d i n t o n i n e g r o u p s , e a c h g r o u p b e i n g i d e n t i f i e d by t h e number c o d e i n c o l u m n 1: "1 " d a t a f o r " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s "2 " d a t a on e a c h h o u s e h o l d " T Y P E " "3 " d a t a on " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s "4 " d a t a on e a c h " z o n e " "5 " b e h a v i o u r a l p a r a m e t e r s "6 " c o n s t r u c t i o n a n d o p e r a t i n g d a t a "7 " c a l i b r a t i o n d a t a "8 " p o l i c y d a t a "9 " s y s t e m c o n t r o l p a r a m e t e r s I n t h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n e a c h o f t h e s e g r o u p s i s d e t a i l e d . 285 "1 " " M o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s . E a c h " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d i s l o a d e d w i t h two b a s i c d a t a s e t s ; a c t u a l a n n u a l i n c o m e a n d t y p e . " M o d e l " h o u s e h o l d d a t a r e c o r d s a r e i d e n t i f i e d w i t h a " 1 " i n c o l u m n 1, w i t h t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d b e i n g i d e n t i f i e d i n c o l u m n s 2 t o 4 by a number n o t e x c e e d i n g 1 2 0 . I n p u t n e e d n o t be i n s e q u e n t i a l o r d e r b u t t h e n u m b e r i n g o f t h e h o u s e h o l d s m u s t be c o n t i n u o u s . F o r a n o u t l i n e o f t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e s e i n p u t d a t a s e e t h e d e s c r i p t i o n o f " H H 1 . F O R T " i n S e c t i o n A 1 . 4 3 . The c o r r e s p o n d i n g d a t a i n p u t f o r t h e e x a m p l e i s a s f o l l o w s , w i t h b l a n k s i d e n t i f i e d by a " _ " . 1 001 1 81 40 2 1 002301 40 1 1 003_31 40 2 1 004_31 40 1 1 0 0 5 5 8 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 6 4 8 1 0 0 1 1 00721 468 1 1 0 0 8 _ 6 4 6 8 2 1 0 0 9 1 1 4 6 8 2 1 01 021 468 2 The f i r s t d a t a f i e l d ( c o l u m n s 5 - 9 ) i s t h e a n n u a l a c t u a l o r m e a s u r e d i n c o m e f o r t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d . The s e c o n d f i e l d ( c o l u m n s 1 0 - 1 4 ) i s t h e h o u s e h o l d T Y P E g r o u p a n d i n g e n e r a l u s e w i l l t a k e a v a l u e o f 1 t h r o u g h 8 . "2 " H o u s e h o l d T Y P E s . The h o u s e h o l d " T Y P E " g r o u p d a t a i n p u t h a s b e e n s e p a r a t e d i n t o t w o r e c o r d s p e r h o u s e h o l d T Y P E a s t h e " a v e r a g e i n c o m e " by h o u s e h o l d T Y P E i s c a l c u l a t e d by " H H 1 . F O R T " , w h i l e t h e " A L P H A'S" a r e g e n e r a t e d e x t e r n a l l y . The h o u s e h o l d T Y P E " a v e r a g e i n c o m e " r e c o r d s a r e i d e n t i f i e d by a " 2 0 " i n c o l u m n s 1 - 2 . - A " 2 1 " d e n o t e s " A L P H A " r e c o r d s , w i t h t h e h o u s e h o l d T Y P E g r o u p i d e n t i f i e d i n c o l u m n 4 on b o t h r e c o r d s . The c o m b i n e d d a t a i n p u t f o r t h e e x a m p l e i s a s f o l l o w s : 286 2 0 0 1 3 4 0 0 0 2 0 0 2 1 4 6 0 0 2 1 0 1 . 1 4 5 0 2 1 0 2 . 2 4 5 0 "3 " M o d e l d w e l l i n g s . M o d e l d w e l l i n g s a r e i n i t i a l i z e d w i t h two d a t a f i e l d s ; t h e o r i g i n a l l e v e l o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s a n d t h e z o n e i n w h i c h i t i s l o c a t e d . T h i s i n p u t i s g e n e r a t e d by t h e p r o g r a m " D 6 1 . F O R T " , ( s e e d e s c r i p t i o n , S e c t i o n A 1 . 4 4 f o r d e t a i l s o f c a l c u l a t i o n s ) . A l t e r n a t i v e l y , when t h e p r o g r a m i s b e i n g u s e d t o c a l i b r a t e t h e GAMMAs, t h e i n p u t " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s a r e a s f o r t h e d e c a d e - e n d . I n t h e s e i n s t a n c e s t h i s i n p u t s e t i s g e n e r a t e d by t h e u t i l i t y p r o g r a m " D 7 1 . F O R T " . The b a s i c r e c o r d s t r u c t u r e c o n s i s t s o f a " 3 " i n c o l u m n 1, t h e " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g number n o t e x c e e d i n g 120 i n c o l u m n s 2 - 4 , a n d n o r m a l l y t w o d a t a f i e l d s . The r e q u i r e d d a t a i n p u t f o r t h e e x a m p l e i s a s f o l l o w s . 3001 385 1 3002 195 2 3003 271 1 3004 251 1 3005 481 2 3006 249 2 3007 391 1 "4 " Z o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . D a t a r e c o r d s f o r z o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s c o n s i s t o f t h o s e f o r z o n e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s a n d one f o r t h e z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n . The p r o g r a m a s s u m e s t h a t t h e z o n e w i t h t h e h i g h e s t number i s t h e z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n . The i n p u t d a t a r e q u i r e d f o r a l l r u n s , g e n e r a t e d by t h e u t i l i t y p r o g r a m " C Z O N E . F O R T " , c o n s i s t s o f an i n i t i a l i z i n g v a l u e f o r t h e z o n e ' s " e n d o f t h e d e c a d e r e l a t i v e w e a l t h " ; t h e z o n e ' s a v e r a g e d e c a d e - e n d h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e , a n d a r e l a t i v e a c c e s s v a r i a b l e . The r e c o r d 287 s t r u c t u r e c o n s i s t s o f a " 4 0 " i n c o l u m n s 1-2 t h e z o n e n u m b e r , up t o 2 0 , i n c o l u m n s 3 - 4 , a n d two d a t a f i e l d s . T h e s t a n d a r d z o n a l i n p u t f o r t h e e x a m p l e , w i t h " 4 0 0 3 " b e i n g t h e z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n i s : 4001 20000 31 4 0 0 2 3 7 0 9 0 50 4 0 0 3 2 9 1 1 0 47 "5 " B e h a v i o u r a l p a r a m e t e r s . The p r o g r a m u s e s f i v e b e h a v i o u r a l p a r a m e t e r s i n a d d i t i o n t o t h e " T Y P E " s p e c i f i c ALPHA p a r a m e t e r s . T h e y a r e l o a d e d u n d e r t h e b a s i c c o d e " 5 0 " a n d a r e i d e n t i f i e d by t h e n u m b e r s i n c o l u m n s 3 - 4 w i t h e a c h i n p u t r e c o r d c o n t a i n i n g two d a t a f i e l d s . T h r e e o f t h e s e p a r a m e t e r s r e l a t e t o h o u s e h o l d u t i l i t y ; GAMMA1, GAMMA2, GAMMA3, a n d two t o t h e " s u p p l y o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s f r o m t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k " f u n c t i o n ; B E T A 1 , B E T A 2 . The r e s p e c t i v e number c o d i n g s a r e : " 5 0 0 1 " GAMMA 1: t h e p a r a m e t e r m e a s u r i n g t h e r e s p o n s i v e n e s s o f h o u s e h o l d s t o p r i c e d i f f e r e n c e s w i t h i n t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t . T h i s p a r a m e t e r may v a r y b e t w e e n 0 a n d 1, w i t h 0 i n d i c a t i n g maximum r e s p o n s i v e n e s s . " 5 0 0 2 " GAMMA2: t h e p a r a m e t e r i n d i c a t i n g t h e v a l u e h o u s e h o l d s p l a c e , o t h e r t h i n g s e q u a l , on b e i n g l o c a t e d i n a w e a l t h y z o n e . T h i s p a r a m e t e r h a s a l o w e r l i m i t o f z e r o a n d no n a t u r a l u p p e r l i m i t , b u t n o r m a l l y o p e r a t e s i n t h e r a n g e 0 . 0 t o 1 . 0 . " 5 0 0 3 " GAMMA3: t h e p a r a m e t e r i n d i c a t i n g t h e s t r e n g t h o f t h e h o u s e h o l d s ' p r e f e r e n c e f o r l e i s u r e . A v a l u e o f z e r o i n d i c a t e s t h a t a c c e s s i s n o t v a l u e d , a v a l u e >0 t h r o u g h <1 i n d i c a t e s a d e c l i n i n g m a r g i n a l u t i l i t y , 1 i n d i c a t e s a l i n e a r p r e f e r e n c e f u n c t i o n , a n d v a l u e s >1 g e n e r a t e a n i n c r e a s i n g m a r g i n a l u t i l i t y f o r a c c e s s . N o r m a l l y o p e r a t e s i n t h e r a n g e 0 . 0 t o 1 . 0 . " 5 0 0 4 " BETA 1: t h i s p a r a m e t e r i n d i c a t e s t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e i n i t i a l l e v e l o f s e r v i c e s a n e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g w i l l p r o v i d e a t t h e e n d o f t h e d e c a d e i_f t h e p r i c e p e r u n i t o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e o b t a i n e d c o v e r s o n l y o p e r a t i n g c o s t s . i . e . , a v a l u e o f 0 . 6 6 i n d i c a t e s t h a t 66% o f t h e i n i t i a l l e v e l w i l l s t i l l be s u p p l i e d u n d e r t h e s e p e s s i m i s t i c p r i c e c o n d i t i o n s . "5005" B E T A 2 : c o r r e s p o n d i n g l y , t h i s p a r a m e t e r r e f e r s t o t h e a d d i t i o n a l s e r v i c e s t h a t w i l l be p r o v i d e d i n r e s p o n s e t o a n i n c r e a s e i n t h e p r i c e r e c e i v e d p e r u n i t o f h o u s i n g o v e r t h e o p e r a t i n g c o s t . 288 When t h e p r o g r a m i s i n " c a l i b r a t i o n " mode i t w i l l a c c e p t t w o i n p u t v a l u e s f o r two o f t h e f i v e p a r a m e t e r s , i . e . , w i l l r e a d a s e c o n d v a u e i n f i e l d two ( c o l u m n 1 0 - 1 4 ) . T h e s e v a l u e s w i l l i n d i c a t e t o t h e p r o g r a m t h a t a m u l t i p l e s e t o f r u n s i s r e q u i r e d i n w h i c h t h e v a l u e s o f t h e two r e s p e c t i v e p a r a m e t e r s a r e v a r i e d b e t w e e n t h e t w o s u p p l i e d v a l u e s . One p a i r o f p a r a m e t e r s w i l l g e n e r a t e f o u r r u n s , two p a i r s s i x t e e n r u n s . T h e f i v e p a r a m e t e r v a l u e s i n p u t f o r t h e e x a m p l e a r e : 5 0 0 1 0 . 4 5 0 5 0 0 2 0 . 2 0 5 0 0 3 0 . 2 0 5 0 0 4 0 . 5 6 0 5 0 0 5 0 . 3 3 5 "6 " C o n s t r u c t i o n a n d O p e r a t i n g d a t a . The b a s i c s u p p l y f u n c t i o n f o r new c o n s t r u c t i o n i s a s s u m e d e l a s t i c a t a p r i c e , P N , a b o v e a m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f s e r v i c e s , QM, d i c t a t e d by b u i l d i n g c o d e s . QM i s i n p u t d i r e c t l y w h i l e PN may be i n p u t d i r e c t l y o r c a l c u l a t e d a s t h e sum o f t h e t w o i n p u t s ; PO a n d P C . The s e p a r a t e i n p u t s o f PO a n d PC a r e n e c e s s a r y s i n c e b o t h v a l u e s i n d e p e n d e n t l y e n t e r t h e s u p p l y f u n c t i o n o f a n e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g . T h e s e v a l u e s a r e m e a s u r e d on a f l o w b a s i s , i n t e r m s o f d o l l a r s p e r m o n t h p e r u n i t o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s , a n d a r e c a l c u l a t e d a s a w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e f o r t h e d e c a d e u n d e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n . " 6 0 0 1 " PO : O P E R A T I N G C O S T ; i s t h e c a s h c o s t o f m o n t h l y o p e r a t i o n p e r u n i t o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e , e x c l u s i v e o f f i n a n c i n g . G i v e n t h a t t h e a v e r a g e i n i t i a l p r i c e o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e i s 1 . 0 , t h e r a n g e o f t h i s p a r a m e t e r i s 0 . 2 t h r o u g h 1 . 5 . " 6 0 0 2 " PC : F I N A N C I N G C O S T ; i s t h e m o n t h l y c o s t o f f i n a n c i n g one u n i t o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e . " 6 0 0 3 " QM : M I N . Q U A N T I T Y ; i n d i c a t e s t h e m i n i m u m number o f u n i t s o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e e a c h new d w e l l i n g mus t p r o v i d e . T h i s m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y c o r r e s p o n d s t o g o v e r n m e n t - i m p o s e d r e s t r i c t i o n s on s i z e a n d q u a l i t y f o r new c o n s t r u c t i o n . 289 The t h r e e v a l u e s i n p u t f o r t h i s e x a m p l e a r e ; 6 0 0 1 _ 0 . 4 3 6002_ 0 . 7 7 6 0 0 3 _ 1 4 0 . "7 " C a l i b r a t i o n d a t a . The MODELS a r e c a l i b r a t e d t o a g i v e n u r b a n a r e a , i n t e r m s o f t h e BETA a n d GAMMA b e h a v i o u r a l p a r a m e t e r s , by s i m u l a t i n g t h e m o d e l u n d e r d i f f e r e n t s e t s o f p a r a m e t e r v a l u e s a n d d e t e r m i n i n g w h i c h s e t g i v e s t h e " b e s t f i t " . B e s t f i t i s c a l c u l a t e d i n t e r m s o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e a c t u a l m a r k e t r e s u l t s a n d t h e s i m u l a t e d r e s u l t s . T h e a c t u a l r e s u l t s r e q u i r e d f o r s u c h e r r o r t e s t i n g a r e g e n e r a t e d by t h e u t i l i t y p r o g r a m " D 7 1 . F O R T " , a n d i n p u t w i t h a r e c o r d s t r u c t u r e o f " 7 0 " i n c o l u m n s 1 - 2 , t h e z o n e number i n c o l u m n s 3 - 4 , a n d t w e l v e d a t a f i e l d s . T h e s e f i e l d s a r e ; f i e l d one ( c o l u m n s 5 - 9 ) t h e a v e r a g e p r i c e , f i e l d s t w o t h r o u g h n i n e ( c o l u m n s 1 0 - 4 9 ) r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f h o u s e h o l d s by t y p e w i t h i n t h e z o n e a s a d e c i m a l p e r c e n t , f i e l d t e n ( c o l u m n s 5 0 - 5 4 ) t h e a v e r a g e i n c o m e , a n d f i e l d e l e v e n ( c o l u m n s 5 5 - 5 9 ) t h e u t i l i z a t i o n f a c t o r , w h i c h i s t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e s t a r t i n g s t o c k o c c u p i e d a t t h e e n d o f t h e p e r i o d . F i e l d t w e l v e i s t h e a v e r a g e q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s c o n s u m e d . ( S e e t h e d e s c r i p t i o n o f " D 7 1 . F O R T " , i n S e c t i o n A 1 . 4 5 , f o r f u l l d e t a i l s . ) The c a l i b r a t i o n i n p u t f o r t h e e x a m p l e i s : 7 0 0 1 1 . 1 0 0 . 3 3 3 3 . 6 6 6 6 12000 . 7 5 2 1 0 . 7 0 0 2 1 . 3 0 0 . 2 5 . 7 5 7230 . 8 5 1 7 0 . 7 0 0 3 1 . 2 0 0 . 3 0 . 7 0 2 8 1 4 0 1 .00 3 0 0 . 290 "8 " " P o l i c y " d a t a . T h e s e d a t a a r e r e q u i r e d when t h e p r o g r a m i s i n " p o l i c y " m o d e , s i m u l a t i n g t h e e f f e c t s o f a l t e r n a t i v e f o r m s o f m a r k e t i n t e r v e n t i o n . D e t a i l s o f t h e s e i n p u t r e c o r d s a r e i n c l u d e d i n t h e S e c t i o n A 1 . 5 9 : P o l i c y M o d e . "9 " S y s t e m c o n t r o l p a r a m e t e r s . T h e s e p a r a m e t e r s a r e u s e d t o c o n t r o l i n p u t t o a n d o u t p u t f r o m t h e p r o g r a m , i n a d d i t i o n t o c o n t r o l l i n g t h e o p e r a t i o n o f t h e a l g o r i t h m . O p t i o n s a r e p r o v i d e d t o c o n t r o l t h e v o l u m e o f p r i n t e d o u t p u t , c o n t r o l g r a p h i c a l o u t p u t a n d t o i n d i c a t e t h e p r o g r a m m o d e . I t s h o u l d be n o t e d t h a t i n a c t u a l u s e m o s t o f t h e d a t a r e c o r d s a r e c o n t a i n e d i n i n p u t d a t a f i l e s . T h r e e a l t e r n a t i v e f i l e s a r e u s e d f o r e a c h CMA c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e d i f f e r e n t s o l u t i o n modes o f t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m . 1. C M A . G 5 B : i n p u t f o r c a l i b r a t i n g t h e GAMMA p a r a m e t e r s 2 . C M A . B 5 B : i n p u t f o r c a l i b r a t i n g t h e BETA p a r a m e t e r s 3 . C M A . P 5 B : o u t p u t f r o m B A S E mode r u n s f o r P O L I C Y mode r u n s T h e s e f i l e s c o n t a i n r e c o r d s a s f o l l o w s ; 1. C M A . G 5 B - GAMMA c a l i b r a t i o n 1. 1971 " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s 2 . 1971 h o u s e h o l d t y p e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s - a v e r a g e i n c o m e a n d A L P H A v a l u e s 3 . 1971 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s 4 . 1971 z o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 5 . GAMMA c a l i b r a t i o n s e t 2 . C M A . B 5 B - B e t a c a l i b r a t i o n 1. 1971 " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s 2 . 1971 h o u s e h o l d t y p e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s - a v e r a g e i n c o m e a n d A L P H A v a l u e s 3 . 1961 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s 4 . 1961 z o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 5 . BETA c a l i b r a t i o n s e t 291 2 . C M A . P 5 B - P o l i c y a n a l y s i s 1. 1971 " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s 2 . 1971 h o u s e h o l d t y p e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s - a v e r a g e i n c o m e a n d A L P H A v a l u e s 3 . 1961 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s 4 . 1961 z o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s The r e m a i n i n g r e c o r d s ; t h o s e f o r t h e b e h a v i o u r a l p a r a m e t e r s , t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n a n d o p e r a t i n g d a t a , t h e p o l i c y d a t a a n d t h e s y s t e m c o n t r o l p a r a m e t e r s , a r e i n p u t f r o m t h e c o n t r o l d e c k . W h i l e l o a d i n g t h e d a t a , t h e p r o g r a m c h e c k s f o r e r r o r s , c o u n t s t h e number o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s a n d " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s , a n d e n s u r e s t h a t t h e n u m b e r i n g i s c o n t i n u o u s a n d t h a t z o n e a n d t y p e s p e c i f i c a t i o n s a r e c o r r e c t . E r r o r s a r e i n d i c a t e d . A f t e r l o a d i n g , a r e v i e w o f t h e i n p u t i s o u t p u t a s f o l l o w s ; 292 * * * I N P U T DATA E x a m p l e S o l u t i o n * * * "1 " MODEL HOUSEHOLDS: 2 3 4 h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e t y p e 1 number h o u s e h o l d s 10 5 6 7 8 9 10 18140 3 0 1 4 0 3140 3140 58100 48100 2 1 4 6 8 6468 11468 2 1 4 6 8 2 . 1. 2 . 1 . * * * "2 " HOUSEHOLD T Y P E GROUPS: T Y P E g r o u p 1 2 1 . 1 . 1 . 2, number g r o u p s 2 income A L P H A * * * " -3 34000 14600 . 1 4 5 0 . 2 4 5 0 " MODEL D W E L L I N G S : d w e l l i n g 1 2 number d w e l l i n g s 5 6 7 s e r v i c e s zone * * * "4 3 8 5 . 1 . 1 9 5 . 2 . 271 1 . 251 1 . 481 . 2 . 2 4 9 . 2 . 391 1 . " ZONAL C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S ZONE number 1 2 3 number z o n e s " w e a l t h " d i s t a n c e * * * " 5 i GAMMA1 ( p r i c e ) 0.4500 0.0 2 0 0 0 0 37090 2 9 1 1 0 3 1 . 5 0 . 4 7 . B E H A V I O U R A L PARAMETERS GAMMA2 GAMMA3 BETA 1 B E T A 2 ( w e a l t h ) ( a c c e s s ) ( d e p r e . ) ( e l a s t ) 0 . 2 0 0 0 0 . 0 0 . 2 0 0 0 0 . 0 0.5600 0.0 0 . 3 3 5 0 0 . 0 2 . PO 0.43 * * * »7 * * * "6 " CONSTRUCTION C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S PC PN QM 4 0 . 7 7 1 .20 1 4 0 . 0 0 * * * "7 " C A L I B R A T I O N D A T A : * * * * * * * * h o u s e h o l d z o n e p r i c e 1 2 3 4 5 6 1 1.10 0.33 0.67 0.0 2 1 .30 0.25 0.75 0.0 3 1.20 0.30 0.70 0.0 t y p e 7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 * * * * * * * * 8 " Y " u s a g e " Q " 0 . 0 1 2 0 0 0 . . 7 5 2 1 0 . 0 . 0 1 4 2 3 0 . . 8 5 1 7 0 . 0 . 0 2 8 1 4 0 . . 0 3 0 0 . 293 A 1 . 5 3 I n i t i a l C a l c u l a t i o n s . T h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m i s a r e p e t i t i v e s i m u l a t i o n p r o c e s s w h e r e b y v a l u e s c a l c u l a t e d i n one " e x e c u t i o n " o f t h e a l l o c a t i o n a l g o r i t h m a r e u s e d a s i n p u t f o r a s u b s e q u e n t " e x e c u t i o n " . The s o l u t i o n p r o c e s s i s r e p e a t e d u n t i l t h e i n p u t a n d o u t p u t v a l u e s o f s e l e c t e d p a r a m e t e r s c o n v e r g e . D u r i n g t h e i n i t i a l c a l c u l a t i o n s t a g e , t h e p r o g r a m c a l c u l a t e s t h o s e v a r i a b l e v a l u e s t h a t a r e c o n s t a n t t h r o u g h o u t a c o m p l e t e r u n a n d i n i t i a l i z e s t h o s e e n d o g e n o u s v a r i a b l e s whose v a l u e s v a r y w i t h e a c h e x e c u t i o n . I n g e n e r a l o n l y t h e z o n a l w e a l t h e x t e r n a l i t y v a r i a b l e v a r i e s d u r i n g p r o g r a m i t e r a t i o n a n d a l l s o l u t i o n c o n d i t i o n s i n c l u d i n g t h e p r i c e - q u a n t i t y i n t e r c e p t s b e t w e e n h o u s e h o l d ' s demand f u n c t i o n s a n d t h e r e s p e c t i v e s u p p l y f u n c t i o n s a r e c a l c u l a t e d e x o g e n o u s t o t h e s o l u t i o n p r o c e s s . T h e s e c a l c u l a t i o n s a r e d e t a i l e d i n S e c t i o n A 1 . 5 4 t h a t f o l l o w s . The i n i t i a l c a l c u l a t i o n s , common t o a l l s i m u l a t i o n s c o n s i s t o f ; c a l c u l a t i n g " p e r m a n e n t " o r " m o d e l " i n c o m e , s o r t i n g t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s i n d e s c e n d i n g " m o d e l " i n c o m e o r d e r a n d ' t h e i n i t i a l i z a t i o n o f t h e z o n a l e x t e r n a l i t i e s . A 1 . 5 3 1 M o n t h l y " P e r m a n e n t " I n c o m e W h i l e t h e p r o g r a m t a k e s a s i n p u t a m i x t u r e o f a n n u a l a n d m o n t h l y v a l u e s , a l l c a l c u l a t i o n s a r e b a s e d on m o n t h l y v a l u e s . " P e r m a n e n t " o r " m o d e l " i n c o m e i s c a l c u l a t e d a s t h e w e i g h t e d p r o d u c t o f t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s " a c t u a l " a n n u a l ( i n p u t ) i n c o m e a n d t h e a v e r a g e i n c o m e f o r t h e h o u s e h o l d t y p e d i v i d e d by 1 2 . I t i s t h i s " m o d e l " i n c o m e t h a t e n t e r s i n t o t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s demand f u n c t i o n a n d a c t u a l l y d e t e r m i n e s wha t d w e l l i n g i t s e l e c t s a n d wha t q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s i t c o n s u m e s . T h e s e " m o d e l " i n c o m e s a r e c a l c u l a t e d u n d e r t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e " p e r m a n e n t " i n c o m e 294 e l a s t i c i t y o f demand a s o u t l i n e d i n E q u a t i o n A 1 : 5 i s 0 . 6 . The " a c t u a l " a n d t h e " m o d e l " i n c o m e s c a n be o u t p u t f o r e a c h h o u s e h o l d a l o n g w i t h t h e r e l e v a n t A L P H A v a l u e i n t h e f o l l o w i n g f o r m : * * * HOUSEHOLD C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S : t e s t s i m u l a t i o n p r o g r a m h o u s e h o l d 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 A L P H A 0 . 2 4 5 0 . 1 4 5 0 . 2 4 5 0 . 1 4 5 0 . 1 4 5 0 . 1 4 5 0 . 1 4 5 0 . 2 4 5 0 . 2 4 5 0 . 2 4 5 " Y " a c t ' l 18140 30140 3140 3140 58100 4 8 1 0 0 2 1 4 6 8 6 4 6 8 11468 2 1 4 6 8 " Y " m o d e l 1386 2636 484 679 3908 3489 2150 746 1053 1533 n o t e : " Y " : a c t ' l i s t h e i n p u t a n n u a l a m o u n t ; " Y " : m o d e l i s a m o n t h l y a m o u n t . A 1 . 5 3 2 O r d e r i n g t h e " M o d e l " H o u s e h o l d s . A f t e r c a l c u l a t i n g t h e " m o d e l " i n c o m e s t h e p r o g r a m c r e a t e s a n o r d e r e d a r r a y o f t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s . T h i s a r r a y , t e r m e d t h e s t a c k o f " u n a s s i g n e d " h o u s e h o l d s , c o n t a i n s a l l " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s o r d e r e d by t h e i r " m o d e l " i n c o m e . T h i s o r d e r i n g a l l o w s t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m t o a l l o c a t e t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s by d e c l i n i n g c o n s u m p t i o n l e v e l s , t h u s m i n i m i z i n g t h e s u b s e q u e n t n e e d f o r " r e a s s i g n m e n t s " , i n c r e a s i n g t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m ' s e f f i c i e n c y . S i n c e i n c o m e s a r e e x o g e n o u s l y d e t e r m i n e d , t h i s o r d e r i n g o f t h e s t a c k i s r e t a i n e d t h r o u g h o u t t h e r u n . The o r d e r e d s t a c k f o r t h e e x a m p l e i s ; * * * ORDERED HOUSEHOLD STACK 5 6 2 7 10 1 9 8 4 3 A 1 . 5 3 3 I n i t i a l i z e " R e l a t i v e " W e a l t h E x t e r n a l i t y P a r a m e t e r . T h e e n d o g e n o u s l y d e r i v e d c o m p o n e n t o f t h e u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e p r e f e r e n c e f o r l i v i n g i n a w e a l t h y z o n e . The 295 r e l a t i v e " w e a l t h " o f a z o n e i s m e a s u r e d a s t h e r a t i o o f t h e a v e r a g e h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e i n t h e z o n e , t o t h e a v e r a g e h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e f o r t h e u r b a n a r e a a t l a r g e . Wz = ( M Y ) z o n e / ( M Y ) c i t y w h e r e , (MY) i s t h e a v e r a g e h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e f o r t h e r e s p e c t i v e g r o u p i n g s . The v a l u e s f o r Wz a r e i n i t i a l i z e d a s t h e r a t i o o f t h e r e s p e c t i v e a c t u a l a v e r a g e d e c a d e - e n d v a l u e s o f ( M Y ) , w h e r e ( M Y ) c i t y i s s e t t o t h e v a l u e f o r t h e z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n . By i n i t i a l i z i n g Wz a t t h e s e v a l u e s , i n p r e f e r e n c e t o s e t t i n g t hem t o o n e , a f a s t e r c o n v e r g e n c e o f t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m i s a c h i e v e d . D u r i n g e a c h " e x e c u t i o n " , t h e W z ' s a r e r e c a l c u l a t e d f r o m t h e r e l e v a n t d a t a f o r i n p u t i n t o t h e n e x t " e x e c u t i o n " . I n m u l t i p l e c a l i b r a t i o n r u n s , t h e p r e v i o u s l y c a l c u l a t e d s e t i s u s e d a t i n i t i a l i z a t i o n f o r s u b s e q u e n t i t e r a t i o n s . A 1 . 5 4 P r i c e - Q u a n t i t y I n t e r c e p t s W i t h t h e M a c R a e a l l o c a t i o n a l g o r i t h m a l l v a l i d i n t e r c e p t s b e t w e e n a h o u s e h o l d ' s demand c u r v e a n d t h e s u p p l y c u r v e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h new a n d e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s a r e c a l c u l a t e d a n d t h e s o l u t i o n s " o r d e r e d " by " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d , i n t e r m s o f a d e c l i n i n g t o t a l u t i l i t y d e r i v e d f r o m h o u s i n g a n d o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s . G i v e n t h e d i f f e r e n t n a t u r e o f t h e s u p p l y c u r v e s f o r t h e new a n d e x i s t i n g s e r v i c e s , t h e p r o g r a m u t i l i z e s two s e p a r a t e r o u t i n e s f o r s o l v i n g f o r t h e r e l e v a n t q u a n t i t y o f new s e r v i c e s a n d t h e p r i c e a n d q u a n t i t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s . I n a d d i t i o n , s i n c e " p o l i c i e s " a r e i n t r o d u c e d by m o d i f y i n g t h e r e s p e c t i v e s u p p l y a n d demand c u r v e s ; a s e p a r a t e s o l u t i o n e q u a t i o n 296 m u s t be d e r i v e d f o r e a c h c o m b i n a t i o n o f s u p p l y f u n c t i o n a n d s u b s i d y p o l i c y . The r e s u l t i s a m u l t i p l i c i t y o f s o l u t i o n e q u a t i o n s b e i n g i n c l u d e d i n t h i s s e c t i o n o f t h e p r o g r a m . D e t a i l s o f " p o l i c y " i m p l e m e n t a t i o n s a r e i n c l u d e d i n S e c t i o n A 1 . 5 9 . A 1 . 5 4 1 Q u a n t i t y a n d P a r t i a l U t i l i t y : New S e r v i c e s W i t h t h e O R I G I N A L MODEL s p e c i f i c a t i o n t h e s u p p l y f u n c t i o n f o r new " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s i s a h o r i z o n t a l f u n c t i o n a t P N . W i t h t h i s f o r m u l a t i o n t h e p r o g r a m c a n c a l c u l a t e t h e r e l e v a n t i n t e r s e c t i o n s o f t h e "new d w e l l i n g " s u p p l y f u n c t i o n w i t h e a c h h o u s e h o l d ' s demand f u n c t i o n by t h e d i r e c t s u b s t i t u t i o n o f PN i n t o t h e demand f u n c t i o n . I f t h e c a l c u l a t e d q u a n t i t y o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n f o r a " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d , Q N , i s l e s s t h a n t h e s p e c i f i e d m i n i m u m a l l o w a b l e q u a n t i t y , QM, QN i s s e t t o z e r o f o r t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d . F o r v a l i d Q N ' s t h e p a r t i a l u t i l i t i e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h " h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s " , " o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s " , a n d " a c c e s s " a r e c a l c u l a t e d ; a " p a r t i a l " u t i l i t y v a l u e , b e i n g t h e sum o f t h e s e t h r e e v a l u e s , i s o b t a i n e d . T h i s p a r t i a l u t i l i t y v a l u e w i l l be c o n s t a n t t h r o u g h o u t t h e s o l u t i o n l o o p s a s i t i s d e r i v e d c o m p l e t e l y f r o m e x o g e n o u s d a t a . The p r i c e , q u a n t i t y a n d p a r t i a l u t i l i t y d a t a a r e t h e n s t o r e d f o r s u b s e q u e n t u s e . I f an i n v a l i d i n t e r c e p t o c c u r s , t h e r e l e v a n t p r i c e , q u a n t i t y a n d p a r t i a l u t i l i t y v a l u e s a r e s e t t o z e r o . A 1 . 5 4 2 Q u a n t i t y , P r i c e a n d P a r t i a l U t i l i t y : E x i s t i n g S e r v i c e s . The a p p r o a c h u s e d t o d e r i v e p r i c e - q u a n t i t y i n t e r c e p t s i n v o l v e s s o l v i n g f o r p r i c e i n a r e d u c e d e q u a t i o n . G i v e n t h a t t h e b a s i c f o r m o f t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k s u p p l y f u n c t i o n s i s a l i n e a r f u n c t i o n i n " P j " , t h e u n i t p r i c e , a n d t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s demand f u n c t i o n i s a q u a d r a t i c i n " P j " , " P j " c a n be c a l c u l a t e d a s t h e p o s i t i v e r o o t o f 297 t h e q u a d r a t i c o f t h e f o r m ; A * P j * * 2 + B * P j + C S i n c e t h e r e d u c e d f o r m e q u a t i o n w i t h s u b s i d y p a y m e n t s i n c o r p o r a t e d may be a c u b i c o r h i g h e r p o w e r t h e d e r i v a t i o n o f P j h a s b e e n b a s e d c o m p l e t e l y on a n u m e r i c a l s o l u t i o n p r o c e s s , i n p r e f e r r e n c e t o t h e more e f f i c i e n t a n a l y t i c a l m e t h o d s . The a d v a n t a g e o f a c o m p l e t e l y n u m e r i c a l p r o c e d u r e i s f i r s t l y c o n s i s t e n c y when c o n s i d e r i n g p o l i c y a p p l i c a t i o n s a n d s e c o n d l y s i m p l i c i t y o f p r o g r a m m i n g when i n c o r p o r a t i n g a l t e r n a t i v e f u n c t i o n s . The n u m e r i c a l p r o c e d u r e u s e d i s a c o m b i n a t i o n o f t h e b i s e c t i o n a n d s e c a n t r u l e s s o l v i n g f o r F N ( P j ) = 0 . C o n v e r g e n c e i s n o r m a l l y a c h i e v e d w i t h i n t e n p a s s e s w i t h t h e e x i t t o l e r a n c e s e t a t a p r i c e c h a n g e o f 0 . 0 0 0 1 . O n c e c a l c u l a t e d t h e v a l u e f o r P j i s t h e n s u b s t i t u t e d i n t o t h e e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s u p p l y f u n c t i o n t o o b t a i n t h e v a l u e f o r Q j . I n v a l i d i n t e r c e p t s a r e c o n s i d e r e d t o o c c u r i f one o f t h e f o l l o w i n g c o n d i t i o n s i s v i o l a t e d ; 1. i f t h e r e q u i r e d l e v e l o f c o n s u m p t i o n o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s f o r c e s a n e g a t i v e u t i l i t y t o be a s s o c i a t e d w i t h o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s . i . e . , ( Y i - Q j * P j ) - GAMMA1 *(1 . - A L P H A i * Y i ) < 0 . 0 w h e r e , A L P H A i i s t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s " A L P H A " . 2 . P j i s l e s s t h a n P O , t h e o p e r a t i n g c o s t , a n d 3 . Q j i s l e s s t h a n t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s Q N ; z e r o i f t h e h o u s e h o l d i s i n e l i g i b l e t o c o n s u m e a new d w e l l i n g o r d u r i n g c a l i b r a t i o n . F o r v a l i d i n t e r c e p t s , t h e " p a r t i a l " u t i l i t i e s a r e c a l c u l a t e d a s f o r new c o n s t r u c t i o n b u t e m p l o y i n g t h e r e l e v a n t v a l u e s f o r P j a n d Q j : t h e c a l c u l a t e d v a l u e s f o r P j a n d Q j a n d t h e " p a r t i a l " 298 u t i l i t y , z e r o i f a n i n v a l i d i n t e r c e p t , a r e t h e n s t o r e d . T h e s e s t o r e d p r i c e , q u a n t i t y a n d " p a r t i a l " u t i l i t y d a t a c a n t h e n be o u t p u t a s f o l l o w s ; ( n o t e t h a t d w e l l i n g " 8 " i s t h e "new" d w e l l i n g ) * * * P R I C E , Q U A N T I T Y a n d " p a r t i a l " U T I L I T Y : t e s t s i m u l a t i o n p r o g ( H o u s e h o l d 1) DWELLING 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 p r i c e 1 .132 2 . 0 9 2 1 . 5 5 5 1 . 6 6 6 0 . 9 2 5 1 .678 1 .116 1 .200 q u a n t i t y 2 9 4 . 0 2 0 3 . 2 2 4 0 . 2 2 3 0 . 5 3 3 8 . 4 2 2 9 . 6 2 9 6 . 8 2 8 2 . 8 p a r t i a l " U " 4 3 1 . 3 1 0 . 3 7 1 . 3 5 8 . 4 6 5 . 3 5 4 . 4 3 4 . 4 1 8 . ( H o u s e h o l d 2) DWELLING 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 p r i c e 1 .263 2 . 3 9 8 1 .758 1 .890 1 .024 1 . 9 0 5 1 . 2 4 5 1 .200 q u a n t i t y 3 0 8 . 6 2 2 0 . 5 2 5 6 . 2 2 4 6 . 9 3 5 2 . 2 2 4 5 . 9 3 1 1 . 4 3 1 8 . 4 p a r t i a l " U " 9 2 6 . 7 4 4 . 8 3 9 . 8 1 9 . 9 7 1 . 8 1 2 . 9 3 0 . 9 3 4 . ( H o u s e h o l d 3) DWELLING 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 p r i c e 0 . 0 0 . 8 0 6 0 . 5 9 5 0 . 6 3 9 0 . 0 0 . 6 4 4 0 . 0 0 . 0 q u a n t i t y 0 . 0 1 3 0 . 5 1 6 4 . 8 1 5 5 . 8 0 . 0 1 5 4 . 9 0 . 0 0 . 0 p a r t i a l " U " 0 . 1 7 1 . 1 9 2 . 1 8 7 . 0 . 1 8 5 . 0 . 0 . ( H o u s e h o l d 4) DWELLING 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 p r i c e 0 . 0 0 . 6 6 5 0 . 4 8 5 0 . 5 2 2 0 . 0 0 . 5 2 6 0 . 0 0 . 0 q u a n t i t y 0 . 0 1 2 2 . 5 1 5 6 . 1 1 4 7 . 3 0 . 0 1 4 6 . 4 0 . 0 0 . 0 p a r t i a l " U " 0 . 2 7 5 . 2 9 5 . 2 9 1 . 0 . 2 8 9 . 0 . 0 . ( H o u s e h o l d 5) DWELLING 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 p r i c e 1.831 3 . 4 8 1 2 . 5 4 9 2 . 7 4 1 1 .484 2 . 7 6 2 1 .804 1 .200 q u a n t i t y 3 7 2 . 0 2 8 1 . 8 3 1 8 . 4 3 0 8 . 8 4 1 6 . 5 3 0 7 . 8 3 7 4 . 8 4 7 2 . 1 p a r t i a l " U " 1 2 2 8 . 9 1 8 . 1 0 8 2 . 1 0 4 7 . 1 3 0 4 . 1 0 3 7 . 1 2 3 4 . 1 3 8 5 . 299 (Household 6) DWELLING 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 p r i c e 1.645 3.126 2.291 2.462 1.334 2.481 1.621 1.200 q u a n t i t y 351.3 261.7 298.0 288.5 395.5 287.6 354.1 421.5 p a r t i a l " U " 1135. 870. 1010. 980. 1200. 971. 1140. 1236. (Household 7) DWELLING 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 p r i c e 1.042 1.980 1.452 1.561 0.844 1.572 1.027 1.200 q u a n t i t y 284.0 196.8 232.1 222.9 327.1 221.9 286.7 259.8 p a r t i a l " U " 794. 653. 727. 711. 829. 705. 797. 762. (Household 8) DWELLING 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 p r i c e 0.643 1.197 0.887 0.952 0.523 0.959 0.634 1.200 q u a n t i t y 239.4 152.6 187.7 178.5 282.4 177.6 242.1 152.3 p a r t i a l " U " 288. 225. 256. 249. 307. 247. 290. 225. (Household 9) DWELLING 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 p r i c e 0.882 1.633 1.213 1.300 0.719 1.309 0.869 1.200 q u a n t i t y 266.0 177.2 213.3 203.9 309.7 202.9 268.8 214.8 p a r t i a l " U " 362. 273. 318. 308. 388. 305. 364. 317. (Household 10) DWELLING 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 p r i c e 1.241 2.292 1.704 1.826 1.014 1.839 1.224 1.200 q u a n t i t y 306.2 214.5 251.9 242.2 350.9 241.2 309.0 313.0 p a r t i a l " U " 458. 322. 391. 376. 496. 372. 461. 463. From a review of t h i s example output i t can be seen that households "3" and "4" are i n e l i g i b l e f o r a new d w e l l i n g , values f o r d w e l l i n g "8" zero, and that households "5" and "6" w i l l s e l e c t only a new d w e l l i n g ; q u a n t i t y values f o r a l l e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s l e s s than the values f o r d w e l l i n g "8". Only those d w e l l i n g s y i e l d i n g a p r i c e lower than the o p e r a t i n g c o s t , 0.43 i n t h i s case, have zero v a l u e s . 300 A 1 . 5 5 P a r a m e t e r I t e r a t i o n L o o p . When t h e p r o g r a m i s i n " c a l i b r a t i o n " mode a n d m u l t i p l e v a l u e s h a v e b e e n e n t e r e d f o r t h e b e h a v i o u r a l p a r a m e t e r s , a p a r a m e t e r i t e r a t i o n l o o p i s c r e a t e d . T h i s l o o p t h e n c o n t r o l s e n t r y t o a n d e x i t f r o m t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m l o o p . The p a r a m e t e r s a r e i n i t i a l i z e d t o t h e f i r s t i n p u t v a l u e s a n d t h e n i n c r e a s e d b y o n e -t h i r d t h e r a n g e i n s u b s e q u e n t r u n s . F o r e x a m p l e , i f t h e i n p u t p a r a m e t e r v a l u e s a r e ; 5004 0.2 0.5 5005 0.6 0.9 t h e p a r a m e t e r i t e r a t i o n c o m b i n a t i o n s w i l l b e ; BETA 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 B E T A 2 0 . 6 0 . 6 0 . 6 0 . 6 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 7 0 . 7 0 . 4 0 . 5 0 . 7 0 . 7 BETA 1 0 . 2 0 . 3 0 . 4 0 . 5 B E T A 2 0 . 8 0 . 8 0 . 8 0 . 8 0 . 2 0 . 9 0 . 3 0 . 9 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.9 A f t e r t h e f i r s t i t e r a t i o n t h e r e l a t i v e w e a l t h e x t e r n a l i t y - Wz - i s i n i t i a l i z e d t o t h e p r e v i o u s l y c a l c u l a t e d v a l u e . i . e . , n o t r e -i n i t i a l i z e d t o t h e i n p u t c o n d i t i o n s . A 1 . 5 6 S o l u t i o n A l g o r i t h m L o o p . The s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m l o o p c o n s i s t s o f f o u r s e p a r a t e s e c t i o n s , e a c h e x e c u t e d i n o r d e r , t h e n r e p e a t e d u n t i l t h e c o n v e r g e n c e t o l e r a n c e c r i t e r i o n i s m e t . The f i r s t s t e p i n v o l v e s c a l c u l a t i n g t h e " e x t e r n a l i t y " u t i l i t y a n d t h e c r e a t i o n o f t h e " o r d e r e d d w e l l i n g " s t a c k s . The s e c o n d s t e p i n v o l v e s a l l o c a t i n g t h e h o u s e h o l d s among t h e e x i s t i n g a n d p o t e n t i a l l y new d w e l l i n g s . G i v e n t h e f i n a l a l l o c a t i o n s , t h e z o n e s ' " a c t u a l " w e a l t h e x t e r n a l i t y a r e t h e n c a l c u l a t e d a n d c o m p a r e d t o t h e i n i t i a l e x t e r n a l i t y v a l u e s . I f 301 t h e d i f f e r e n c e i s w i t h i n t h e s p e c i f i e d t o l e r a n c e c o n t r o l i s t r a n s f e r r e d o u t o f t h e l o o p , o t h e r w i s e t h e s t e p s a r e r e p e a t e d u p t o a maximum o f t e n t i m e s . A 1 . 5 6 1 R e l a t i v e W e a l t h U t i l i t y The p a r t i a l u t i l i t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e r e l a t i v e w e a l t h i s c a l c u l a t e d f o r e a c h e l e m e n t i n t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d - " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g a r r a y , w i t h t h e f u l l u t i l i t y b e i n g c a l c u l a t e d a s t h e p r o d u c t o f t h i s p a r t i a l v a l u e a n d t h e i n i t i a l l y s t o r e d " p a r t i a l " v a l u e . The f i n a l v a l u e o f t h e u t i l i t y i s z e r o i f t h e s t o r e d " p a r t i a l " v a l u e i s z e r o . The c a l c u l a t e d v a l u e s f o r t h e i n d i v i d u a l d w e l l i n g s c a n be o u t p u t by h o u s e h o l d , a s f o l l o w s ; o 302 * * * " t o t a l " U T I L I T Y : t e s t s i m u l a t i o n p r o g ( H o u s e h o l d 1) DWELLING 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 u t i l i t y 4 2 8 . 3 1 2 . 3 6 8 . 3 5 5 . 4 6 8 . 3 5 6 . 4 3 0 . 4 1 8 . ( H o u s e h o l d 2 ) D W E L L I N G 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 u t i l i t y 9 1 9 . 7 4 8 . 8 3 3 . 8 1 3 . 9 7 6 . 8 1 6 . 9 2 3 . 9 3 4 . ( H o u s e h o l d 3) D W E L L I N G 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 u t i l i t y 0 . 1 7 2 . 1 9 0 . 1 8 6 . 0 . 1 8 6 . 0 . 0 . ( H o u s e h o l d 4) D W E L L I N G 1 2 3 4 5 . 6 7 8 u t i l i t y 0 . 2 7 7 . 2 9 3 . 2 8 9 . 0 . 2 9 0 . 0 . 0 . ( H o u s e h o l d 5 ) D W E L L I N G 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 u t i l i t y 1 2 1 9 . 9 2 3 . 1 0 7 4 . . 1 0 3 9 . 1 3 1 0 . 1 0 4 2 . 1 2 2 5 . 1 3 8 5 . ( H o u s e h o l d 6 ) DWELLING 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 u t i l i t y 1 1 2 7 . 8 7 4 . 1 0 0 2 . 9 7 3 . 1 2 0 6 . 9 7 6 . 1 1 3 2 . 1 2 3 6 . ( H o u s e h o l d 7) D W E L L I N G 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 u t i l i t y 7 8 8 . 6 5 7 . 7 2 1 . 7 0 6 . 8 3 3 . 7 0 9 . 7 9 1 . 7 6 2 . ( H o u s e h o l d 8 ) D W E L L I N G 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 u t i l i t y 2 8 6 . 2 2 6 . 2 5 4 . 2 4 8 . 3 0 8 . 2 4 8 . 2 8 7 . 2 2 5 . ( H o u s e h o l d 9 ) D W E L L I N G 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 u t i l i t y 3 6 0 . 2 7 4 . 3 1 5 . 3 0 5 . 3 9 0 . 3 0 6 . 3 6 2 . 3 1 7 . ( H o u s e h o l d 10) DWELLING 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 u t i l i t y 4 5 5 . 3 2 4 . 3 8 8 . 3 7 3 . 4 9 9 . 3 7 4 . 4 5 8 . 4 6 3 . 303 A 1 . 5 6 2 H o u s e h o l d s ' " O r d e r e d D w e l l i n g " S t a c k s . I n p u t t o t h e a l l o c a t i o n a l g o r i t h m c o n s i s t s o f t h e " o r d e r e d u n a s s i g n e d " h o u s e h o l d s t a c k , c r e a t e d d u r i n g i n i t i a l i z a t i o n , a n d t h e " o r d e r e d d w e l l i n g " s t a c k s . The l a t t e r s t a c k s , one f o r e a c h h o u s e h o l d , a r e f o r m e d f r o m a l l d w e l l i n g s ( i n c l u d i n g t h e new d w e l l i n g ) t h a t y i e l d v a l i d i n t e r s e c t i o n s w i t h t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g h o u s e h o l d ' s demand c u r v e , i . e . , h a v e b e e n a s s i g n e d a p o s i t i v e " u t i l i t y " v a l u e . E a c h i n d i v i d u a l s t a c k i s o r d e r e d i n t e r m s o f d e s c e n d i n g u t i l i t y , w i t h t h e l o w e s t member b e i n g t h e new d w e l l i n g ; z e r o i f t h e h o u s e h o l d i s u n a b l e t o c o n s u m e a new d w e l l i n g . The new d w e l l i n g o c c u p i e s t h e b o t t o m p o s i t i o n i n t h e s t a c k a s i t i s a s s u m e d t h a t t h e r e i s no c o m p e t i t i o n f o r t h i s d w e l l i n g . The e x c e p t i o n i s t h a t d u r i n g GAMMA c a l i b r a t i o n r u n s , when no new " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s a r e a l l o c a t e d , a l l e x i s t i n g " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s y i e l d i n g a p r i c e g r e a t e r t h a n t h e o p e r a t i n g c o s t w i l l be i n c l u d e d i n t h e s t a c k s . The h o u s e h o l d i s f r e e t o s e l e c t t h e q u a n t i t y o f new h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s i t d e s i r e s t o c o n s u m e a n d t h e b u i l d i n g i n d u s t r y w i l l s u p p l y t h a t q u a n t i t y . W h i l e some d w e l l i n g s may y i e l d a v a l i d i n t e r s e c t i o n , e x t e r n a l i t i e s may be s u c h t h a t t h e t o t a l u t i l i t y d e r i v e d f r o m o c c u p y i n g t h e d w e l l i n g may be l e s s t h a n t h a t d e r i v e d f r o m c o n s u m i n g a new d w e l l i n g . I n t h e s e i n s t a n c e s , t h e e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g i s d i s c a r d e d d u r i n g c r e a t i o n o f t h e s t a c k s . T h e s e o r d e r e d s t a c k s c a n be o u t p u t a s f o l l o w s ; 304 * * * H O U S E H O L D ' S " o r d e r e d " d w e l l i n g S T A C K S h o u s e h o l d 1 5 7 1 8 0 0 0 0 h o u s e h o l d 2 5 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 h o u s e h o l d 3 3 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 h o u s e h o l d 4 3 6 4 2 0 0 0 0 h o u s e h o l d 5 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 h o u s e h o l d 6 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 h o u s e h o l d 7 5 7 1 8 0 0 0 0 h o u s e h o l d 8 5 7 1 3 6 4 2 8 h o u s e h o l d 9 5 7 1 8 0 0 0 0 h o u s e h o l d 10 5 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 N o t e t h a t t h e s t a c k s o f h o u s e h o l d s " 3 " a n d " 4 " , who c a n n o t c o n s u m e new d w e l l i n g s , e n d w i t h a 0 n o t a n 8 t h a t c o r r e s p o n d s t o a new d w e l l i n g . 305 A 1 . 5 6 3 " A l l o c a t i o n " A l g o r i t h m . T h e b a s i c o b j e c t i v e o f t h e a l l o c a t i o n a l g o r i t h m i s t o a s s i g n t h e o r d e r e d h o u s e h o l d s , one by o n e , t o t h e i r p r e f e r r e d d w e l l i n g , i f t h e y c a n o u t b i d t h e c u r r e n t o c c u p a n t , a n d r e - a s s i g n t h e m o n l y when a n o t h e r h o u s e h o l d i s w i l l i n g t o p a y a h i g h e r p r i c e f o r t h e d w e l l i n g . The a l g o r i t h m u s e s a s i n p u t t h e " o r d e r e d a s s i g n e d " h o u s e h o l d s t a c k a n d t h e h o u s h o l d s ' " o r d e r e d d w e l l i n g " s t a c k s . The o u t p u t i s a d w e l l i n g o c c u p a n c y a r r a y t h a t i n d i c a t e s w h i c h h o u s e h o l d , i f a n y , o c c u p i e s e a c h d w e l l i n g a n d t h e p r i c e ; t h e v a l u e o f t h e l a t t e r b e i n g i n i t i a l i z e d a t z e r o . I n a d d i t i o n , a n a r r a y i n d i c a t i n g t h e s t a t u s o f e a c h h o u s e h o l d ' s p o t e n t i a l new d w e l l i n g i s g e n e r a t e d . The r e s p e c t i v e e l e m e n t o f t h i s a r r a y i s s e t e q u a l t o PN i f a h o u s e h o l d o c c u p i e s a new d w e l l i n g ; t o - 1 . 0 i f t h e h o u s e h o l d i s u n a s s i g n e d ( f o r c e d o u t o f t h e m a r k e t ) . The s o l u t i o n p r o c e s s b e g i n s w i t h t h e s e l e c t i o n o f t h e h o u s e h o l d a t t h e t o p o f t h e " o r d e r e d u n a s s i g n e d " h o u s e h o l d s t a c k : t h i s s e l e c t e d h o u s e h o l d i s t e r m e d t h e " u n a s s i g n e d " h o u s e h o l d . The s i m p l i f i e d l o g i c o f t h e a l g o r i t h m i s ; 1. s e l e c t t h e d w e l l i n g number a t t h e t o p o f t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s " o r d e r e d d w e l l i n g " s t a c k a n d i n s o d o i n g d e l e t e i t f r o m t h e s t a c k . 2 . a c h e c k i s made t o s e e i f t h e d w e l l i n g number i s ; a . f o r an e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g : t a k e o p t i o n 1. b . f o r a new d w e l l i n g : t a k e o p t i o n 2 . c . a z e r o : t a k e o p t i o n 3 . 3 . t h e r e s p e c t i v e o p t i o n s i n v o l v e : 306 * * o p t i o n 1: e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g . a . c h e c k t o s e e i f o c c u p i e d . b . 1 i_f n o t o c c u p i e d t h e r e p e c t i v e e l e m e n t s o f t h e " o c c u p a n c y " a r r a y a r e s e t t o t h e h o u s e h o l d number a n d t h e p r i c e t h a t t h e h o u s e h o l d w i l l p a y . The a l g o r i t h m t h e n r e t u r n s t o s e l e c t t h e n e x t h o u s e h o l d f r o m t h e " o r d e r e d u n a s s i g n e d " h o u s e h o l d s t a c k a n d s s t a r t s r e p e a t i n g t h e s t e p s . b . 2 i_f o c c u p i e d a c o m p a r i s i o n i s made b e t w e e n t h e c u r r e n t p r i c e b i d a n d t h e p r i c e t h a t t h e u n a s s i g n e d h o u s e h o l d i s o f f e r i n g t o p a y : i f t h e o f f e r i s l e s s t h a n , o r e q u a l t o , t h e c u r r e n t p r i c e t h e c u r r e n t o c c u p a n t r e m a i n s a n d t h e u n a s s i g n e d h o u s e h o l d s e l e c t s t h e n e x t d w e l l i n g number a t t h e t o p o f i t s " o r d e r e d d w e l l i n g " s t a c k - s t e p " 1 " - a n d t h e p r o c e s s c o n t i n u e s . : i f t h e o f f e r i s g r e a t e r t h a n t h e c u r r e n t p r i c e , t h e u n a s s i g n e d h o u s e h o l d o c c u p i e s t h e d w e l l i n g a n d t h e d i s p l a c e d h o u s e h o l d t h e n s e l e c t s t h e n e x t d w e l l i n g number a t t h e t o p o f i t s " o r d e r e d d w e l l i n g " s t a c k - s t e p " 1 " - a n d t h e p r o c e s s c o n t i n u e s . * * o p t i o n 2 : new d w e l l i n g . t h e r e s p e c t i v e e l e m e n t i n t h e "new d w e l l i n g " a r r a y i s s e t t o P N . The a l g o r i t h m t h e n r e t u r n s t o s e l e c t t h e n e x t h o u s e h o l d f r o m t h e " o r d e r e d u n a s s i g n e d " h o u s e h o l d s t a c k a n d c o n t i n u e s t h r o u g h t h e s t e p s . * * o p t i o n 3: u n a s s i g n e d . The p r e s e n c e o f a z e r o i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e h o u s e h o l d c a n n o t c o n s u m e t h e m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f "new d w e l l i n g " s e r v i c e s . The h o u s e h o l d i s t r e a t e d a s u n a s s i g n a b l e , w i t h t h e p r o g r a m s e t t i n g t h e r e s p e c t i v e e l e m e n t o f t h e new d w e l l i n g a r r a y t o - 1 . , f o r f u t u r e r e f e r e n c e . The a l g o r i t h m t h e n c o n t i n u e s a s i n o p t i o n 2 . The e n d c o n d i t i o n o c c u r s when a l l h o u s e h o l d s i n t h e o r d e r e d u n a s s i g n e d h o u s e h o l d s t a c k h a v e b e e n p r o c e s s e d . The number o f i t e r a t i o n s o f t h e a l l o c a t i o n a l g o r i t h m h a s a f i n i t e u p p e r b o u n d , b e i n g t h e sum o f t h e e l e m e n t s i n t h e " o r d e r e d d w e l l i n g " s t a c k s . T h i s b o u n d r e s u l t s - b e c a u s e on e a c h i t e r a t i o n a new e l e m e n t mus t be s e l e c t e d a n d o n c e s e l e c t e d i s d i s c a r d e d . A t r a c i n g o f e a c h i t e r a t i o n o f t h e a l l o c a t i o n a l g o r i t h m c a n be o u t p u t a s f o l l o w s ; t h e t r a c e b e i n g s e q u e n t i a l l y r o w - w i s e . 307 * * * t r a c i n g HOUSEHOLD A S S I G M E N T s h h o l d d w e l l p r i c e 5 8 1 . 2 0 0 0 7 5 0 . 8 4 4 3 10 8 1 . 2 0 0 0 7 1 1 . 0 4 2 4 9 1 0 . 8 8 2 0 8 7 0 . 6 3 4 4 4 3 0 . 4 8 5 8 3 6 0 . 6 4 4 8 h h o l d d w e l l p r i c e 6 8 1 . 2 0 0 0 7 7 1 . 0 2 7 3 1 5 0 . 9 2 5 2 9 5 0 . 7 1 9 3 9 8 1 . 2 0 0 0 8 1 0 . 6 4 3 5 4 6 0 . 5 2 6 9 4 4 0 . 5 2 2 8 h h o l d d w e l l p r i c e 2 5 1 . 0 2 3 8 10 5 1 . 0 1 4 4 1 7 1 . 1 1 6 9 9 7 0 . 8 6 9 6 8 5 0 . 5 2 3 6 8 3 0 . 8 8 8 0 3 3 0 . 5 9 6 3 A 1 . 5 6 4 S o l u t i o n O u t p u t W i t h t h i s MODEL o n l y one c o n d i t i o n a l e x t e r n a l i t y f a c t o r ( r e l a t i v e w e a l t h Wz) i s u s e d . T h i s f a c t o r i s c a l c u l a t e d a s : Wz = ( M Y ) z o n e / ( M Y ) c i t y w h e r e , (MY) i s t h e a v e r a g e h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e f o r t h e r e s p e c t i v e g r o u p i n g s . On e a c h i t e r a t i o n t h e " a c t u a l " a n d " e x p e c t e d " e x t e r n a l i t i e s a r e o u t p u t a s f o l l o w s ; * * * " A C T U A L " a n d " E X P E C T E D " E X T E R N A L I T I E S " A C T U A L " " E X P E C T E D " z o n e r e l a t i v e "#" r e l a t i v e "#" w e a l t h u n i t s w e a l t h u n i t s 1 0 . 5 5 5 2 4 . 0 . 6 8 7 0 4 . 2 0 . 7 5 0 8 2 . 1 .2741 3 . 3 1 . 5 6 9 4 4 . 1 . 0 0 0 0 0 . R o o t - M e a n - S q u a r e d - E r r o r : 0 . 1 3 0 8 T h e r o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d e r r o r ( R . M . S . E . ) s t a t i s t i c i s e m p l o y e d a s t h e i n d i c a t o r o f c o n v e r g e n c e b e t w e e n t h e " e x p e c t e d " a n d t h e " a c t u a l " e x t e r n a l i t i e s . The e r r o r t e r m i s c a l c u l a t e d by summing t h e s q u a r e o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e " a c t u a l " a n d " e x p e c t e d " v a l u e s o v e r t h e z o n e s a n d d i v i d i n g t h e t o t a l by t w i c e t h e number o f 308 z o n e s . z o n e s ( W z . a c t u a l - W z . e x p e c t e d ) * * 2 R . M . S . E . = • 2 * number z o n e s T h e c o n v e r g e n c e t o l e r a n c e l e v e l i s s e t t o a R . M . S . E . o f 0 . 0 1 , b u t may be r e s e t v i a an i n p u t p a r a m e t e r . The p r o g r a m w i l l e x i t f r o m t h e " s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m " l o o p i f t h e R . M . S . E . i s l e s s t h a n t h e t o l e r a n c e l e v e l , o t h e r w i s e t h e p r o g r a m w i l l l o o p t e n t i m e s b e f o r e e x i t i n g . On e x i t i n g f r o m t h e " s o l u t i o n " a l g o r i t h m l o o p t h e p r o g r a m t r a n s f e r s t o o u t p u t t h e f i n a l a l l o c a t i o n o f " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s t o b o t h e x i s t i n g a n d new " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s . U n a s s i g n e d h o u s e h o l d s a r e s i m i l a r l y r e p o r t e d . * * * A L L O C A T I O N o f HOUSEHOLDS e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s D W E L L I N G z o n e 1 2 1 . 0 . 3 1 . 4 1 . 5 2 . 6 2 . 7 1 . h o u s e h o l d t y p e 7 0 1 . 0 . 8 2 . 4 1 . 2 1 . 3 2 . 1 2 . p r i c e q u a n t i t y " p " * " Q " 1 .042 0 . 0 2 8 4 . 0 0 . 0 2 9 6 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 8 8 7 1 8 7 . 7 1 6 6 . 6 0 . 6 3 9 1 5 5 . 8 9 9 . 5 1 . 0 2 4 3 5 2 . 2 3 6 0 . 5 0 . 5 2 6 1 4 6 . 4 7 7 . 1 1 . 1 1 6 2 9 6 . 8 331 . 3 * * * A L L O C A T I O N o f HOUSEHOLDS new d w e l l i n g s h o u s e h o l d t y p e 5 6 1 . 1 . 9 2 . 10 2 . p r i c e q u a n t i t y " p " * " Q " 1 .200 1 .200 4 7 2 . 1 4 2 1 . 5 5 6 6 . 5 5 0 5 . 8 1 . 2 0 0 2 1 4 . 8 2 5 7 . 7 1 . 2 0 0 3 1 3 . 0 3 7 5 . 6 309 A d d i t i o n a l g r a p h i c a l p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e s o l u t i o n c o n d i t i o n s c a n a l s o be o u t p u t . I n t h e f o l l o w i n g e x a m p l e t h e t w o h o r i z o n t a l r o w s o f d o t s c o r r e s p o n d s t o P N , t h e p r i c e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n a n d P O , t h e o p e r a t i n g c o s t s r e s p e c t i v e l y . T h e y commence a t QM, t h e m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n . P r i c e 1 50 1 00 50 , N , , N . , N , , N . 40 80 120 160 200 240 280 320 360 400 440 480 " Q " o f h o u s i n g P R I C E - Q U A N T I T Y c u r v e s : E x a m p l e S o l u t i o n A f t e r t h e s e o u t p u t s t h e p r o g r a m , when i n " c a l i b r a t i o n " mode , t r a n s f e r s t o c a l c u l a t e a n d o u t p u t t h e c a l i b r a t i o n e r r o r b e f o r e r e t u r n i n g f o r a d d i t i o n a l i n p u t ( S e c t i o n A 1 . 5 7 C a l i b r a t i o n M o d e ) . I n t h e a l t e r n a t i v e " b a s e " a n d " p o l i c y " modes t h e t r a n s f e r i s d e s c r i b e d i n t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g S e c t i o n s A 1 . 5 8 a n d A 1 . 5 9 . 310 A 1 . 5 7 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : C a l i b r a t i o n M o d e . C a l i b r a t i o n i n v o l v e s t e s t i n g " s o l u t i o n " c o n d i t i o n s g e n e r a t e d u n d e r d i f f e r e n t b e h a v i o u r a l p a r a m e t e r s w i t h " a c t u a l " m a r k e t c o n d i t i o n s . I n t h e O R I G I N A L MODEL f i v e c r i t e r i o n s e t s b a s e d on z o n a l v a l u e s a r e u s e d . 1. a v e r a g e p r i c e p e r u n i t o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s 2 . t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f h o u s e h o l d s by t y p e 3 . a v e r a g e h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e 4 . t h e u t i l i z a t i o n o f t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k 5 . t h e a v e r a g e q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s The summary s t a t i s t i c u s e d t o i n d i c a t e t h e " g o o d n e s s - o f - f i t " o f t h e m o d e l i s t e r m e d t h e "mean e r r o r " . Two mean e r r o r s t a t i s t i c s a r e d e r i v e d f o r e a c h " s o l u t i o n " c o n d i t i o n b y : 1. c a l c u l a t i n g on a z o n a l b a s i s t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e " a c t u a l " a n d " s o l u t i o n " means f o r p r i c e , q u a n t i t y , i n c o m e , u t i l i z a t i o n a n d t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f h o u s e h o l d s by T Y P E g r o u p ( n o r m a l l y e i g h t ) . 2 . c a l c u l a t i n g t h e r o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e e r r o r s f o r e a c h o f t h e s e g r o u p s b y summing t h e s q u a r e s o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e a n d d i v i d i n g t h e sum by t w i c e t h e number o f z o n e s . 3 . w e i g h t i n g e a c h o f t h e g r o u p s R . M . S . E . by t h e u n w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e o f t h e z o n a l means f o r t h a t g r o u p , a n d 4 . t h e n t h e s e w e i g h t e d R . M . S . E . V s a r e a v e r a g e d t o o b t a i n t h e f i n a l summary m e a s u r e s . The f i r s t "mean e r r o r " v a l u e o u t p u t c o r r e s p o n d s l t o t h e a v e r a g e o f t h e w e i g h t e d R . M . S . E . s f o r p r i c e s , q u a n t i t i e s , i n c o m e s a n d u t i l i z a t i o n : t h e s e c o n d f o r t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n b y h o u s e h o l d T Y P E . The c a l i b r a t i o n o u t p u t w h i c h i n c l u d e s t h e a v e r a g e z o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a n d t h e c a l i b r a t i o n e r r o r s i s a s f o l l o w s : 311 * * * C A L I B R A T I O N o u t p u t : t e s t s i m u l a t i o n p r o g * * * A V E R A G E " a c t u a l " a n d " s o l u t i o n " ZONAL C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S p a r a m e t e r v a l u e s GAMMA 1 GAMMA2 GAMMA3 BETA1 B E T A 2 0 . 4 5 0 0 0 . 2 0 0 0 0 . 2 0 0 0 0 . 5 6 0 0 0 . 3 3 5 0 * * * * * * * * h o u s e h o l d t y p e * * * * * * * * p r i c e 1 8 i n c o m e u s a g e " Q " ( z o n e 1) a c t u a l 1 .10 0 . 3 3 0 . 6 7 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 1 2 0 0 0 . 0 . 7 5 2 1 0 , c a l c . 0 . 9 7 0 . 2 5 0 . 7 5 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 1 2 3 0 4 . 1 .00 2 3 1 , ( z o n e 2) a c t u a l 1 .30 0 . 2 5 0 . 7 5 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 1 4 2 3 0 . 0 . 8 5 170, c a l c . 0 . 8 8 1 .00 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 1 6 6 4 0 . 0 . 6 7 2 4 9 , ( z o n e 3) a c t u a l 1 .20 0 . 3 0 0 . 7 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 2 8 1 4 0 . 0 . 0 300 , c a l c . 1 .20 0 . 5 0 0 . 5 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 3 4 7 8 4 . 0 . 0 3 5 5 , * * * C A L I B R A T I O N ERRORS * * * * * * * * h o u s e h o l d t y p e * * * * * * * * p r i c e 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 " R . M . S . E . . 21 . 1 3 . 1 3 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 R . M . S . E . . 9 8 7 . 7 2 . 7 2 ( w e i g h t e d ) MEAN ERRORS . . a v e r a g e d ' Y " u s a g e " Q " . 0 1 9 2 0 . 5 . 0 5 2 1 6 . 5 . 0 . 0 0 2 0 . 2 7 . 0 1 4 0 . 3 1 7 0 0 . 7 2 1 4 T h i s o u t p u t i s p r o v i d e d a t t h e e n d o f e a c h p a r a m e t e r i t e r a t i o n l o o p ; t h e s t a t u s o f t h e i t e r a t e d p a r a m e t e r s b e i n g i n d i c a t e d i n t h e o u t p u t t a b l e . A t t e r m i n a t i o n o f t h e p a r a m e t e r i t e r a t i o n l o o p t r a n s f e r s c o n t r o l t o i n p u t a d d i t i o n a l d a t a . An " e n d - o f - f i l e " t e r m i n a t e s p r o g r a m e x e c u t i o n . 312 A 1 . 5 8 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : B a s e Mode " B a s e " mode r u n s a r e u s e d t o g e n e r a t e a d a t a s e t f o r i n p u t d u r i n g " p o l i c y " r u n s t h a t a l l o w s t h e i n t e r n a l c a l c u l a t i o n o f c o m p a r a t i v e s t a t i s t i c s t h a t h i g h l i g h t t h e e f f e c t s o f t h e m a r k e t i n t e r v e n t i o n u n d e r s t u d y . I n " b a s e " mode t h e BETA c a l i b r a t i o n d a t a s e t i s e m p l o y e d a s i n p u t a l o n g w i t h t h e f i n a l l y s e l e c t e d s e t o f t h e f i v e c a l i b r a t i o n p a r a m e t e r s . The p r o g r a m o u t p u t s t o f i l e o r c a r d s a t i t l e r e c o r d c a r d a n d t h e d a t a r e c o r d s f o r t h e h o u s e h o l d T Y P E s , A L P H A S a n d a v e r a g e i n c o m e s , t h e z o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a n d r e c o r d s f o r e a c h 1961 " m o d e l " e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g a n d 1971 " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d . The l a t t e r s e t o f r e c o r d s c o n t a i n s a d d i t i o n a l d a t a on t h e s o l u t i o n c o n d i t i o n s . O u t p u t f o r e a c h " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d i s t h e i n p u t " a c t u a l " i n c o m e a n d h o u s e h o l d T Y P E , t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e a d d i t i o n a l d a t a ; number o f t h e d w e l l i n g o c c u p i e d , p r i c e p a i d p e r u n i t o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e , t h e q u a n t i t y c o n s u m e d a n d t h e u t i l i t y . A new " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g i s i n d i c a t e d by a " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g number o f 9 9 9 : a h o u s e h o l d f o r c e d t o d o u b l e - u p i s i n d i c a t e d by a z e r o . The " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d c o m p o n e n t o f t h e " p o l i c y " d a t a s e t g e n e r a t e d f o r t h e e x a m p l e d a t a i s a s f o l l o w s ; 1 001 181 40 2 71 . 1 1 6 2 9 6 . 8 1 002301 40 1 51 . 0 2 4 3 5 2 . 2 1 003_3 1 40 2 4 0 . 6 3 9 1 5 5 . 8 1 004_3 1 40 1 6 0 . 5 2 6 1 4 6 . 4 1 0 0 5 5 8 1 0 0 1 9 9 9 1 . 2 0 0 4 7 2 . 1 1 0 0 6 4 8 1 0 0 1 9 9 9 1 . 2 0 0 4 2 1 . 5 1 00721 468 1 1 1 . 0 4 2 2 8 4 . 0 1 0 0 8 _ 6 4 6 8 2 3 0 . 8 8 7 1 8 7 . 7 1 0 0 9 1 1 4 6 8 2 9 9 9 1 . 2 0 0 2 1 4 . 8 1 0 1 0 2 1 4 6 8 2 9 9 9 1 . 2 0 0 3 1 3 . 0 313 A 1 . 5 9 O R I G I N A L MODEL: P o l i c y Mode The a i m i n c a l i b r a t i n g t h e MODELS i s t o e v a l u a t e t h e a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c y o p t i o n s . The v e r s i o n o f t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m p r o g r a m u s e d i n t h i s s t u d y c o n t a i n s " p o l i c y " o p t i o n s c a p a b l e o f a n a l y s i n g t h e f o l l o w i n g p o l i c y t y p e s ; i n c o m e s u b s i d y , i n - k i n d s u b s i d y , p r i c e s u b s i d y , d i r e c t s u b s i d y a n d p u b l i c h o u s i n g . W i t h t h e f i r s t f o u r o p t i o n s , t h e p o l i c i e s c a n be d i r e c t e d t o e i t h e r new o r e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s , o r a c o m b i n a t i o n o f b o t h , w i t h h o u s e h o l d e l i g i b i l i t y b e i n g r e g u l a t e d by " a c t u a l " i n c o m e , T Y P E a n d e a r m a r k i n g . The s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f t h e s u b s i d y amount t o t h e p r o g r a m i s b a s e d on a s e t o f e q u a t i o n s ; t h e o p t i o n a v a i l a b l e v a r y i n g w i t h t h e s u b s i d y m o d e . I n a d d i t i o n t o i n c o r p o r a t i n g d i f f e r e n t p a r a m e t e r v a l u e s w i t h e a c h o f t h e d i f f e r e n t e q u a t i o n t y p e s , up t o f o u r e q u a t i o n s c a n be " s t a c k e d " t o c r e a t e r e l a t i v e l y c o m p l e x " c o n d i t i o n a l " p r o g r a m s s u c h a s a R e n t T r i a n g l e o r a C o n d i t i o n a l H o u s i n g A l l o w a n c e P r o g r a m . The p o l i c y mode o p t i o n s , w i t h t h e a v a i l a b l e e q u a t i o n s , a r e : 1. i n c o m e s u b s i d y 1. 2 SUB = POL1 * [POL 3 - POL 4 * A Y ] . i n - k i n d s u b s i d y 2 . 1 SUB = P0L1 * [ P 0 L 2 * P j * Q j - POL4 * A Y ] 2 . 2 SUB = P0L1 * [POL 3 - POL 4 * A Y ] 2 . 3 SUB = P0L1 * [POL 2 * P j * Q j - POL5 * P j * 2 . 4 SUB = P0L1 * [POL 3 - POL 5 * P j * Q j ] 2 . 5 SUB = P0L1 * [POL 2 * P j * Q j - P O L 5 * AY * P j * Q j ] 2 . 6 SUB = P0L1 * [POL 3 - POL 5 * AY * P j * Q j ] 314 3 . p r i c e s u b s i d y 3 .1 SUB = Q j * [ ( P O - P O L 1 ) + (PC - P O L 2 ) ] . . . f o r new SUB = Q j * [ ( P O - P O L 3 ) + (PC - P O L 4 ) ] . . . f o r e x i s t i n g 4 . d i r e c t demand s u b s i d y 4 .1 SUB = POL1 * [POL2 * P j * Q j - POL4 * A Y ] 4 . 2 SUB = POL1 * [POL3 - POL4 * A Y ] 5 . d i r e c t s u p p l y s u b s i d y 5 .1 SUB = POL1 * [POL2 * P j * Q j - POL4 * A Y ] 5 . 2 SUB = POL1 * [POL3 - POL4 * A Y ] 2 0 . c o n s t r a i n e d MINIMUM q u a n t i t y s u b s i d y 2 0 . 1 i n c o m e s u b s i d y t o c o n s u m e MINIMUM q u a n t i t y ( P O L 1 ) 2 0 . 2 i n - k i n d s u b s i d y t o c o n s u m e MINIMUM q u a n t i t y ( P O L 1 ) 2 0 . 3 d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d s u b s i d y a t MINIMUM q u a n t i t y ( P O L 1 ) 2 0 . 4 d i r e c t q u a n t i t y s u b s i d y a t MINIMUM q u a n t i t y ( P O L 1 ) 2 0 . 5 d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e s u b s i d y a t MINIMUM q u a n t i t y ( P O L 1 ) 2 0 . 6 d i r e c t p r i c e s u b s i d y a t MINIMUM q u a n t i t y ( P O L 1 ) T h e s e a r e t h e o p t i o n s u t i l i z e d i n g e n e r a t i n g t h e p o l i c y s i m u l a t i o n s r e p o r t e d i n C h a p t e r 1 0 . I n a d d i t i o n , e l i g i b i l i t y may be s p e c i f i e d v i a A I L I M ( P O L 6 ) a n d a m i n i m u m c o n s u m p t i o n l e v e l ( e a r m a r k i n g r e q u i r e m e n t ) v i a . Q M I N . W i t h t h e i n - k i n d p o l i c y o p t i o n t h e e q u a t i o n u s e d may be d i r e c t l y s p e c i f i e d , o r s e l e c t e d by t h e p r o g r a m i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h t h e f o l l o w i n g l o g i c : i f POL4 a n d POL5 b o t h n o n - z e r o s e l e c t 5 o r 6 i f POL4 z e r o s e l e c t 3 o r 4 i f POL5 z e r o s e l e c t 1 o r 2 i f POL5 n o n - z e r o s e l e c t 1, 3 o r 5 T h a t i s , i f POL2 n o n - z e r o , POL3 i s d i s r e g a r d e d . 315 The a d d i t i o n a l i n p u t d a t r e c o r d s a v a i l a b l e f o r " p o l i c y " s i m u l a t i o n s a r e : " 8 1 0 " G e n e r a l P o l i c y p a r a m e t e r s " 8 2 0 1 " E l i g i b l e H o u s e h o l d s by T Y P E " 8 3 0 1 " P u b l i c H o u s i n g R e c i p i e n t s A t l e a s t one "810 " c a r d i s r e q u i r e d f o r a l l " p o l i c y " r u n s ; t h e " 8 2 0 0 " a n d " 8 3 0 0 " c a r d s a r e o p t i o n a l . D e t a i l s o f t h e s e i n p u t r e c o r d s a r e : " 8 1 0 " G e n e r a l P o l i c y P a r a m e t e r s T h i s i n p u t r e c o r d c o n t a i n s e l e v e n ( 1 1 ) d a t a f i e l d s a n d may be u s e d f o r up t o f o u r d i f f e r e n t e q u a t i o n s i n one p o l i c y r u n . ( t h e e q u a t i o n number b e i n g i d e n t i f i e d i n c o l u m n 4 ) . F i e l d s c o r r e s p o n d t o O P T I O N , P O L 1 , P O L 2 , P O L 3 , P O L 4 , P O L 5 , A I L I M , Q M I N , QMAX, RMIN a n d RMAX w i t h t h e f i r s t s i x a s d e t a i l e d i n t h e i n d i v i d u a l p o l i c y e q u a t i o n s . The o t h e r p a r a m e t e r s a r e u s e d f o r s p e c i a l a p p l i c a t i o n s a s d e t a i l e d f o l l o w i n g . f i e l d . OPTION d a t a v a l u e s : 1 . 2 . 3 . 4 . 5 . 6. 7. 8 . 9 . 1 0 . 1 1 . 1 2 . 1 3 . 1 4 . 1 5 . 2 0 . 21 . 2 2 . i n c o m e s u b s i d y (new a n d e x i s t i n g ) i n c o m e s u b s i d y ( e x i s t i n g o n l y ) i n c o m e s u b s i d y (new o n l y ) i n - k i n d s u b s i d y (new a n d e x i s t i n g ) i n - k i n d s u b s i d y ( e x i s t i n g o n l y ) i n - k i n d s u b s i d y (new o n l y ) p r i c e s u b s i d y (new a n d e x i s t i n g ) ( e x i s t i n g o n l y ) (new o n l y ) s u b s i d y (new a n d e x i s t i n g ) s u b s i d y s u b s i d y s u b s i d y s u b s i d y s u b s i d y p r i c e s u b s i d y p r i c e s u b s i d y d i r e c t demand d i r e c t d i r e c t d i r e c t d i r e c t d i r e c t demand demand s u p p l y s u p p l y s u p p l y ( e x i s t i n g o n l y ) (new o n l y ) (new a n d e x i s t i n g ) ( e x i s t i n g o n l y ) (new o n l y ) c o n s t r a i n e d c o n s t r a i n e d c o n s t r a i n e d MINIMUM (new a n d e x i s t i n g ) MINIMUM ( e x i s t i n g o n l y ) MINIMUM (new o n l y ) 316 n o t e : i f o n l y one e q u a t i o n i s u s e d ( " 8 1 0 1 " ) t h e r e i s no l i m i t on t h e s u b s i d y amoun t o t h e r t h a n t h a t d i c t a t e d by A I L I M ( t h e e l i g i b l e i n c o m e l i m i t ) a n d QMIN ( t h e e a r m a r k i n g c o n s t r a i n t ) . I f more t h a n one e q u a t i o n i s u s e d ( " 8 1 0 2 " - " 8 1 0 4 " ) t h e n t h e a d d i t i o n a l e q u a t i o n s a c t a s c o n s t r a i n t s on t h e s u b s i d y amoun t s u c h t h a t a t t h e s o l u t i o n ( P j , Q j ) t h e s u b s i d y g i v e n by an e q u a t i o n mus t be l e s s t h a n o r e q u a l t o t h a t p r o v i d e d by t h e n e x t e q u a t i o n t o be a c c e p t a b l e . f i e l d s ( 2 - 6 ) t h e s e f i e l d s c o r r e s p o n d t o POL1 t h r o u g h P O L 5 a s d e t a i l e d a b o v e . f i e l d . 7 . A I L I M , a c t u a l a n n u a l i n c o m e e l i g i b i l i t y l i m i t , i . e . " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d ' s a c t u a l i n c o m e , m u s t be l e s s t h a n o r e q u a l t o t h i s amount t o be e l i g i b l e f o r a s u b s i d y . I f z e r o , a l l h o u s e h o l d s a r e e l i g i b l e . f i e l d 8 Q M I N , t h e e a r m a r k i n g r e q u i r e m e n t . A h o u s e h o l d m u s t c o n s u m e a q u a n t i t y g r e a t e r t h a n o r e q u a l t o t h i s f i e l d . 9 .QMAX . d e s i g n a t e d f o r u s e a s a maximum q u a n t i t y c o n s t r a i n t f i e l d . 10 . R M I N . d e s i g n a t e d f o r u s e a s a m i n i m u m r e n t a l / e x p e n d i t u r e . c o n s t r a i n t f i e l d . 11 . R M A X . maximum r e n t c o n s t r a i n t amoun t t o be e l i g i b l e f o r a s u b s i d y . 317 " 8 2 0 0 " E L I G I B L E HOUSEHOLDS b y T Y P E T h i s i n p u t r e c o r d c o n t a i n s e i g h t f i e l d s c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e e i g h t h o u s e h o l d t y p e s . d e f a u l t v a l u e : a l l h o u s e h o l d s e l i g i b l e f o r a s u b s i d y d a t a o p t i o n s : 1. 0 f o r i n e l i g i b l e h o u s e h o l d t y p e s 2 . 1 f o r e l i g i b l e h o u s e h o l d t y p e s " 8 3 0 0 " P U B L I C HOUSING R E C I P I E N T S T h i s i n p u t r e c o r d c o n t a i n s n i n e f i e l d s ; t h e f i r s t b e i n g a c o n t r o l s w i t c h w h i l e t h e r e m a i n i n g e i g h t a r e f o r t h e n u m b e r s o f h o u s e h o l d s f o r c e d t o t a k e new c o n s t r u c t i o n , a n d t h e r e f o r e n o n - c o m p e t i t i v e . S u c h h o u s e h o l d s a r e i n d i c a t e d by a s u b s i d y t y p e c o d e " 9 9 " i n t h e o u t p u t d a t a . d e f a u l t v a l u e : o p t i o n o f f f i e l d 1 ( 8 - 9 ) c o n t r o l s w i t c h d a t a o p t i o n s : 1. 0 i f d a t a n o t t o be c o n s i d e r e d 2 . 1 i f r e q u i r e o p t i o n p u b l i c h o u s i n g r e c i p i e n t s d a t a o p t i o n s : v a l i d h o u s e h o l d number i n t h e r a n g e o f ; 1 t h r o u g h 100 An i n c o m e s u b s i d y t o b o t h new a n d e x i s t i n g " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s ( p o l i c y o p t i o n 1) i s t a k e n a s a n e x a m p l e i n t h i s f o l l o w i n g d e s c r i p t i o n . The s u b s i d y i s t o be 0 . 7 5 o f t h e i n c o m e " g a p " w h e r e i n c o m e i s 25% o f a c t u a l i n c o m e . No r e s t r i c t i o n i s t o be p l a c e d on h o u s e h o l d e l i g i b i l i t y , b u t " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d " 6 " i s t r e a t e d a s a p u b l i c h o u s i n g r e c i p i e n t . T h e r e q u i r e d " p o l i c y " i n p u t r e c o r d s a r e : 8101 1_0 . 75 1 0 . 2 5 8200 1 1 8300 1 6 A f t e r t h e b a s i c d a t a r e v i e w t h e s e a d d i t i o n a l r e c o r d s a r e o u t p u t a s f o l l o w s : * * * "8 " P O L I C Y PARAMETERS o p t i o n POL1 1.1 0 . 7 5 POL 2 1 . 0 0 POL 3 0 . 0 POL 4 0 . 2 5 POL 5 0 . 0 POL 6 0 . 0 POL 7 0 . 0 E L I G I B I L I T Y by T Y P E 1 2 1 . 1 . P U B L I C H O U S I N G : o p t i o n 6 0 A 1 . 5 9 1 S i m u l a t i o n o f S u b s i d y O p t i o n s I n e v a l u a t i n g s u b s i d y o p t i o n s , t h e p r o g r a m f i r s t l y c a l c u l a t e s t h e i n t e r c e p t b e t w e e n t h e u n s u b s i d i z e d demand a n d s u p p l y c u r v e s a n d c a l c u l a t e s t h e p a r t i a l u t i l i t y . I t t h e n a t t e m p t s ( f o r e l i g i b l e h o u s e h o l d s ) t o s o l v e f o r e a c h o f t h e f o u r p o t e n t i a l s u b s i d y e q u a t i o n s i n t u r n . F o r a new d w e l l i n g t h i s i s d o n e s i m p l y b y s o l v i n g f o r t h e r e d u c e d e q u a t i o n i n Q , a s s u m i n g t h a t P N , t h e p r i c e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n , i s g i v e n ( a s sum o f PO + PC o r i n p u t p r i c e s u b s i d y p a r a m e t e r s ) . W i t h e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s t h e n u m e r i c a l s o l u t i o n t e c h n i q u e mus t be u t i l i z e d , w h e r e i n t h e a l t e r n a t i v e s u b s i d y e q u a t i o n s a r e i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t o t h e demand a n d / o r s u p p l y e q u a t i o n s . A f t e r a c h e c k on e a r m a r k i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s t h e a m o u n t o f t h e s u b s i d y i s c a l c u l a t e d by s u b s t i t u t i n g t h e r e s p e c t i v e e q u a t i o n s a s o u t l i n e d i n t h e p r e v i o u s S e c t i o n . T h i s t h e n a l l o w s t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f t o t a l " m o d e l " i n c o m e a n d t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g p a r t i a l u t i l i t i e s . I f o n l y a s i n g l e s u b s i d y e q u a t i o n i s u s e d t h e t o t a l p a r t i a l u t i l i t i e s w i t h a n d w i t h o u t t h e s u b s i d y a r e c o m p a r e d ; t h e o p t i o n 319 w i t h t h e h i g h e s t p a r t i a l u t i l i t y i s s e l e c t e d . I f more t h a n one s u b s i d y e q u a t i o n i s u s e d t h e s u b s e q u e n t e q u a t i o n s a c t a s u p p e r b o u n d s on t h e maximum s u b s i d y a m o u n t . T h i s i s a c h i e v e d b y f i r s t l y c a l c u l a t i n g t h e s u b s i d y amoun t u n d e r t h e new e q u a t i o n f o r t h e s o l u t i o n p r i c e a n d q u a n t i t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e p r e v i o u s e q u a t i o n ( e . g . p r i c e a n d q u a n t i t y f r o m e q u a t i o n 1 a r e s u b s t i t u t e d i n t o s u b s i d y e q u a t i o n 2) i f t h i s amoun t i s g r e a t e r t h a n o r e q u a l t o t h e p r e v i o u s l y c a l c u l a t e d amoun t t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s s u b s i d y amoun t i s t a k e n a s f o r t h e p r e v i o u s e q u a t i o n . O t h e r w i s e , i f t h e new e q u a t i o n i s n o t t h e l a s t e q u a t i o n i n t h e s e t a new s o l u t i o n p r i c e a n d q u a n t i t y i s c a l c u l a t e d a n d t h e p r o c e s s r e p e a t e d . I f t h e new e q u a t i o n i s t h e l a s t , t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s s u b s i d y amoun t i s s i m p l y s e t t o z e r o . F o r " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s d e s i g n a t e d a s new p u b l i c h o u s i n g r e c i p i e n t s , a l l a r r a y e l e m e n t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e e x i s t i n g " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s a r e s e t t o z e r o . I f t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d i s n o t e l i g i b l e f o r a new d w e l l i n g , QN i s l e s s t h a n QM, i t i s a s s i g n e d a QN v a l u e e q u a l t o QM. I n t h i s m a n n e r , i t s d w e l l i n g s t a c k c o n t a i n s o n l y a new " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g f o r w h i c h t h e r e i s no c o m p e t i t i o n . A s p e c i a l o p t i o n h a s b e e n i n c o r p o r a t e d t o a i d i n t h e e f f i c i e n t c o m p u t a t i o n o f t h e s u b s i d y c o s t s when c o m p a r i n g a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c y f o r m s s u p p o r t i n g a c o n s t a n t m i n i m u m s t a n d a r d o f h o u s i n g r e f l e c t e d a s a m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y . The r e q u i r e d s u b s i d y amoun t u n d e r t h e d e s i g n a t e d f o r m o f s u b s i d y i s c o m p u t e d w i t h o u t t h e u s e o f t h e s p e c i a l p a r a m e t e r e d e q u a t i o n s . The a l t e r n a t i v e g r a p h i c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e s e s i x f o r m s o f i n t e r v e n t i o n i s d e t a i l e d i n F i g u r e 9 . 0 2 w i t h t h e m a t h e m a t i c a l f o r m u l a t i o n i n c l u d e d a s S e c t i o n 9 . 3 1 . The s u b s i d y amoun t i s c o m p u t e d a s t h e a d d i t i o n a l c a s h r e q u i r e d t o s h i f t t h e h o u s e h o l d f r o m i t s u n s u b s i d i z e d l e v e l o f 320 c o n s u m p t i o n t o consume t h e r e q u i r e d m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f h o u s i n g i n a c c o r d w i t h t h e s e l e c t e d p o l i c y m o d e . A 1 . 5 9 2 S u b s i d y C a l c u l a t i o n A f t e r t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e p r i c e - q u a n t i t y i n t e r c e p t s a n d t h e a s s o c i a t e d p a r t i a l u t i l i t i e s , t h e p r o g r a m t r a n s f e r s i n t o t h e s t a n d a r d s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m l o o p . S i n c e t h e a m o u n t s i n t h e m a j o r i t y o f p o l i c i e s a r e a f u n c t i o n o f t h e s o l u t i o n c o n d i t i o n s , on e x i t i n g f r o m t h e a l l o c a t i o n a l g o r i t h m t h e p r o g r a m c a l c u l a t e s t h e s u b s i d y T Y P E a n d amount a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e a c h h o u s e h o l d . The e x c e p t i o n i s t h a t u n d e r t h e c o n s t r a i n e d MINIMUM q u a n t i t y o p t i o n t h e s u b s i d y a m o u n t i s c o m p u t e d d i r e c t l y . T h i s a d d i t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n i s o u t p u t a s a p a r t o f t h e A L L O C A T I O N o f HOUSEHOLDS d a t a . I n a d d i t i o n t h i s d a t a i s o u t p u t i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h e i n c o m e d a t a o r d e r e d by " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e , w i t h t h e f o r m o f t h e s u b s i d y i n d i c a t e d by a c o d e n u m b e r . T h e s e two o u t p u t s f o r t h e e x a m p l e d a t a s e t a r e a s f o l l o w s ; 321 *** ALLOCATION of HOUSEHOLDS e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s DWELLING 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 zone 1 . 0. 1 . 1 . 2. 2. 1 . household 7 0 8 3 2 4 1 type 1 . 0. 2. 2. 1 . 1 . • 2. p r i c e 1 .042 0.0 0.922 0.679 1 .024 0.534 1.116 q u a n t i t y 284.0 0.0 190.5 158.7 352.2 1 46.9 296.8 » p » * " Q " 296.0 0.0 175.7 107.7 360.5 78.5 331 .3 SUBSIDY : type 0 0 12 12 0 12 0 : amount 0. 0. 31. 32. 0. 10. 0 *** ALLOCATION of HOUSEHOLDS new d w e l l i n g s household 5 6 9 10 type 1 . 1 . 2. 2. p r i c e 1 .200 1 .200 1.200 1.200 q u a n t i t y 472. 1 421 .6 218.3 313.0 " p " * " Q " 566.5 505.9 262.0 375.6 SUBSIDY : type 0 99 12 0 :amount 0. 0. 17. 0. *** SUBSIDY AMOUNT: example data set ;UB= 0.7500 *( 1 . 00*P*Q-0. 25*AY) :Y LIMIT=9999. /month :MINQ 0. HHOLD INCOME DWELLING SUBSIDY # TYPE ACTUAL MODEL # PRICE QUANTITY P*Q TYPE AMOUNT 5 1 . 4842. 3908. 999 1 .200 472. 1 566.5 0 0.0 6 1 . 4008. 3489. 999 1 .200 421 .6 505.9 99 0.0 2 1 . 2512. 2636. 5 1 .024 352.2 360.5 0 0.0 7 1 . 1789. 2150. 1 1 .042 284.0 296.0 0 0.0 1 0 2. 1789. 1 533. 999 1 .200 313.0 375.6 0 0.0 1 2. 1512. 1 386. 7 1.116 296.8 331 .3 0 0.0 9 2. 956. 1053. 999 1 .200 218.3 262.0 1 2 17.3 8 2. 539. 746. 3 0.922 190.5 175.7 12 30.7 4 1 . 262. 679. 6 0.534 146.9 78.5 1 2 9.8 3 2. 262. 484. 4 0.679 158.7 107.7 1 2 31 .7 18469. 2854.0 3059.6 89.5 The subsidy type code numbers i n d i c a t e f i r s t l y the subsidy equation by which i t was d e r i v e d and secondly the form of the subsidy. The s i x subsidy forms used a r e : 322 " 1 " i n c o m e s u b s i d y " 2 " i n - k i n d s u b s i d y " 3 " p r i c e s u b s i d y " 4 " d i r e c t demand s u b s i d y " 5 " d i r e c t s u p p l y s u b s i d y " 2 0 " c o n s t r a i n e d MINIMUM w i t h " 9 " p u b l i c h o u s i n g A 1 . 5 9 3 C a l c u l a t i o n o f S u b s i d y I m p a c t To a i d i n e v a l u a t i n g t h e m a r k e t e f f e c t s o f t h e i n p u t p o l i c y t h e p r o g r a m c a l c u l a t e s d a t a i n d i c a t i n g c h a n g e s f r o m t h e m a r k e t s t a t e g e n e r a t e d i n t h e " b a s e " mode r u n , a n d i n p u t a s e l e m e n t s o f t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d r e c o r d s . I n a d d i t i o n t o g e n e r a l r e s u l t s f o r t h e CMA a t l a r g e , s e l e c t e d s t a t i s t i c s a r e c a l c u l a t e d f o r a l l r e c i p i e n t s , g r o u p i n g s o f t h e r e c i p i e n t s a n d t h e l o w e s t i n c o m e n o n -r e c i p i e n t s . The s i z e o f t h e s p e c i a l g r o u p s i s t a k e n a s t h e s m a l l e r o f e i t h e r h a l f o f t h e r e c i p i e n t g r o u p ( r e c i p i e n t o r n o n - r e c i p i e n t ) , o r t e n . The n a t u r e o f t h e o u t p u t i s i n d i c a t e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g e x a m p l e ; 323 * * * S U B S I D Y I M P A C T : e x a m p l e d a t a s e t P a r t i c i p a n t s : New C o n s t r u c t i o n : p e r c e n t B a s e S u b s i d i z e d % c h a n g e CMA 4 . 4 0 . 0 0 % 4 . 4 . 0 . 0 % S u b s i d y : Mean 2 2 . 4 : M e d i a n 2 4 . 0 Number C h a n g e s P r i c e s Q u a l i t y E x p e n d i t u r e I n c o m e s L o w e s t H i g h e s t C h a n g e s i n P u r c h a s i n g P o w e r E f f i c i e n c y R a t i o E a r m a r k i n g R a t i o % S u b s i d y o b t a i n e d p a r t i c i p a t i o n r a t e 1 0 . 0 .83% 0.34% 0.76% 2 6 2 . 4 8 4 2 . 0 .48% 0 . 0 3 8 a l l 4 . 2 .57% 1 .38% 3.84% 2 6 2 . 9 5 6 . 4 .44% 0 . 0 6 2 2 5 . 7 8 100 .00% R E C I P I E N T S N O N -l o w " Y " h i g h " Y " R E C I P I E N T 2 . 4 .12% 1.14% 5.47% 2 6 2 . 2 6 2 . 7 .94% 0 . 0 5 5 2 3 . 2 4 4 6 . 3 8 % 2 . 1 .70% 1 .56% 3 . 17% 5 3 9 . 9 5 6 . 3 . 2 1 % 0 . 0 6 5 2 7 . 9 8 5 3 . 6 2 % 6 . 0 .00% - 0 . 0 1 % - 0 . 0 1 % 1 5 1 2 . 4 8 4 2 . 0 . 0 % 4 0 . 0 0 % n o t e : [ 1 ] N O N - R E C I P I E N T S a r e l o w e s t - i n c o m e g r o u p [ 2 ] E f f i c i e n c y R a t i o i s t h e p e r c e n t a g e i n c r e a s e i n h o u s i n g c o n s u m p t i o n d i v i d e d by t h e a v e r a g e n e t d o l l a r amount t r a n s f e r r e d t o t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g g r o u p . [ 3 ] E a r m a r k i n g R a t i o i s t h e r a t i o o f t h e c h a n g e i n h o u s i n g e x p e n d i t u r e t o s u b s i d y r e c e i v e d . A f t e r t h i s o u t p u t , t h e p r o g r a m t r a n s f e r s c o n t r o l t o i n p u t a d d i t i o n a l d a t a f o r t h e n e x t r u n . 324 324 S E C T I O N A 2 : THE M O D I F I E D HOUSING MARKET MODEL I n i m p l e m e n t i n g t h e M O D I F I E D m o d e l , t h e m a j o r i t y o f t h e d a t a s e t s a n d h e d o n i c e s t i m a t i o n s r e s u l t i n g f r o m t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l a r e u t i l i z e d w h i l e w i t h t h e c o m p u t e r i z e d a p p l i c a t i o n s t h e s o f t w a r e u s e d f o r " m o d e l " g e n e r a t i o n h a s s i m p l y b e e n m o d i f i e d t o s e r v e b o t h m o d e l s . The e x c e p t i o n i s w i t h t h e c r e a t i o n o f t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s , w h e r e a new SHU d a t a s e t was c r e a t e d a n d a new p r o g r a m w r i t t e n t o c a l c u l a t e h o u s e h o l d t a x e s a n d g e n e r a t e t h e r e s u l t i n g " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s u n d e r t h e r e s p e c i f i e d T Y P E g r o u p i n g s t h a t r e f l e c t t e n u r e . A d d i t i o n a l d a t a s e t s a r e a l s o r e q u i r e d i n o r d e r t o d i r e c t l y e s t i m a t e t h e demand f u n c t i o n s u n d e r a t r a n s l o g u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n . The g e n e r a l s e t o f m a n i p u l a t i o n s r e q u i r e d t o g e n e r a t e t h e d a t a f o r a C M . A . f o r t h e M O D I F I E D m o d e l a r e : 1 . d e l i n e a t e t h e C M . A . g e o g r a p h i c a l l y i n t o a s p e c i f i c number o f z o n e s . W h i l e t h e m o d e l h a s t h e c a p a b i l i t y o f h a n d l i n g up t o t e n z o n e s , f i v e z o n e s h a v e b e e n e m p l o y e d t h r o u g h o u t t h i s s t u d y f o r t h e s a k e o f c o n s i s t e n c y t h r o u g h t h e r a n g e o f C M . A . s i z e s . [ S e e S e c t i o n A 1 . 4 2 f o r d e t a i l s on t h i s p r o c e d u r e . ] 2 . c a l c u l a t e by z o n e t h e a v e r a g e i n c o m e a n d a v e r a g e a c c e s s f o r u s e i n d e t e r m i n i n g z o n a l e x t e r n a l i t i e s . [ S e e S e c t i o n A 1 . 4 2 f o r d e t a i l s . ] 3 . d e r i v e t h e demand s y s t e m f o r t h e m o d e l i n a s e r i e s o f f o u r s t e p s . The f i r s t i n v o l v e s t h e c r e a t i o n o f a d a t a s e t ( f r o m t h e 1974 S u r v e y o f H o u s i n g U n i t s d a t a ) f o r i n p u t t o a r e g r e s s i o n p a c k a g e . H e d o n i c e q u a t i o n s s u i t a b l e f o r r e d u c i n g e x p e n d i t u r e s t o " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s a r e t h e n d e r i v e d v i a O . L . S . r e g r e s s i o n s ; e s t i m a t i n g s e p a r a t e h e d o n i c e q u a t i o n s f o r o w n e r - o c c u p i e d a n d r e n t a l d w e l l i n g s . The r e s u l t i n g c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e t h e n u s e d t o c o n v e r t a c t u a l 1971 r e n t s a n d p r i c e s f r o m " r e s i d e n t i a l " s e r v i c e s t o " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s , w h i l e c r e a t i n g t h e i n p u t f i l e f o r t h e t r a n s l o g e x p e n d i t u r e e s t i m a t e s . [ S e e S e c t i o n A 2 . 3 1 . ] The f i n a l s t e p i n v o l v e s t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e t r a n s l o g f u n c t i o n s . 325 4 . c r e a t e t h e 1971 " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s u t i l i z i n g a f t e r - t a x i n c o m e s . I n a d d i t i o n t o i n c o m e i n f o r m a t i o n , d a t a on e q u i t y h o l d i n g s a r e a l s o r e q u i r e d f o r t h e o w n e r - o c c u p i e r " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s . A s w i t h t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l , i n c o m e d a t a f r o m t h e 1974 S u r v e y o f H o u s i n g U n i t s d e f l a t e d t o 1971 means a r e u s e d . [ S e e S e c t i o n A 2 . 5 1 . ] The demand f u n c t i o n p a r a m e t e r s e t s ( A 1 , B 1 1 , B 1 2 , B M 1 , B M 2 ) a r e t h e n e s t i m a t e d u t i l i z i n g t h e 1974 SHU d a t a by d i f f e r e n t i a t i n g h o u s e h o l d s f i r s t l y by T Y P E a n d t h e n by i n c o m e i n t o f o u r q u a r t i l e s t o r e f l e c t a d d i t i o n a l v a r i a t i o n s w i t h i n c o m e a n d t o e n a b l e t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f r e l a t i v e s m o o t h demand f u n c t i o n s . D e t a i l s o f t h i s p r o c e d u r e a r e o u t l i n e d i n S e c t i o n 8 . 5 1 . T h e s e o p e r a t i o n s p r o v i d e t h e d a t a r e q u i r e d t o e s t i m a t e t h e two z o n a l e x t e r n a l i t y p a r a m e t e r s : E X T 1 a n d E X T 2 v i a a c a l i b r a t i o n p r o c e s s s i m i l i a r t o t h a t u s e d f o r t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l . The n e x t s t e p i n v o l v e s t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f t h e s u p p l y s y s t e m . T h i s i n v o l v e s t h e g e n e r a t i o n o f t h e 1961 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s a n d t h e c a l i b r a t i o n o f t h e s u p p l y f u n c t i o n ' p a r a m e t e r s . 5 . a g a i n t h e " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s a r e d e r i v e d i n a manner s i m i l i a r t o t h a t o u t l i n e d i n S e c t i o n 8 . 2 3 w i t h i n d e p e n d e n t " m o d e l " r e n t a l a n d o w n e r - o c c u p i e r d w e l l i n g s c r e a t e d . A s w i t h t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l , c a l i b r a t i o n d a t a r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e c h a n g e i n m a r k e t c o n d i t i o n s o v e r t h e d e c a d e a r e d e r i v e d . T h e s e d a t a a r e d i f f e r e n t i a t e d b y t e n u r e t o a l l o w t h e i n d e p e n d e n t c a l c u l a t i o n o f g o o d n e s s - o f - f i t s t a t i s t i c s f o r t h e r e n t a l a n d o w n e r -o c c u p i e r c o m p o n e n t s . T h i s c a l i b r a t i o n p r o c e s s i s b r i e f l y o u t l i n e d i n S e c t i o n 8 . 5 4 . I n f i n a l p r e p a r a t i o n f o r p o l i c y a n a l y s i s a d a t a s e t i n c o r p o r a t i n g d a t a on t h e " b a s e " s o l u t i o n i s g e n e r a t e d . T h i s d a t a s e t i s g e n e r a t e d by t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m p r o g r a m " S I M 0 2 . F O R T " when i n " b a s e " m o d e . F o r d e t a i l s o f t h i s p r o c e d u r e , s e e S e c t i o n 326 A 2 . 6 9 F o r t h e p u r p o s e o f t h e l i n e a r a n d n o n - l i n e a r r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s a n d t h e c r e a t i o n o f t h e t e n u r e d " m o d e l " r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s , s e v e r a l f i l e s , i n a d d i t i o n t o t h o s e f o r t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l , a r e r e q u i r e d . T h e s e a d d i t i o n a l f i l e s a r e d e t a i l e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g S e c t i o n . The s u b s e q u e n t S e c t i o n s d e t a i l t h e a d d i t i o n a l a n a l y t i c a l c a l c u l a t i o n s a n d r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s r e q u i r e d i n d e r i v i n g t h e new b e h a v i o u r a l p a r a m e t e r s . A f u r t h e r S e c t i o n o u t l i n e s t h e c h a n g e s made i n c r e a t i n g t h e t e n u r e d " m o d e l " r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s , w i t h t h e f i n a l S e c t i o n d e t a i l i n g t h e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e s i m u l a t i o n p r o c e s s i n c o r p o r a t i n g t h e M O D I F I E D m o d e l . 327 A 2 . 1 M O D I F I E D m o d e l : D a t a F i l e s The M O D I F I E D m o d e l f r a m e w o r k u t i l i z e s t h e m a j o r i t y o f t h e d a t a f i l e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l . An a d d i t i o n a l raw d a t a f i l e i s c r e a t e d f r o m t h e 1974 S u r v e y o f H o u s i n g U n i t s f i l e , i n c o r p o r a t i n g d e t a i l e d d a t a on h o u s e h o l d ' s h o u s i n g e x p e n d i t u r e s a n d o t h e r i n c o m e d a t a r e q u i r e d f o r t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f a f t e r t a x i n c o m e s . Two i n t e r m e d i a t e f i l e s a r e r e q u i r e d when e s t i m a t i n g t h e demand s i d e t r a n s l o g f u n c t i o n s . The f i r s t i s r e q u i r e d a s i n p u t f o r e s t i m a t i n g t h e h e d o n i c e q u a t i o n s ; t h e s e c o n d p r o v i d e s t h e i n p u t f o r t h e a c t u a l f u n c t i o n a l e s t i m a t e s . S i m i l a r l y , i n e s t i m a t i n g t h e s u p p l y s y s t e m one a d d i t i o n a l f i l e i s r e q u i r e d . A 2 . 1 1 A d d i t i o n a l D a t a F i l e s The f o l l o w i n g a d d i t i o n a l d a t a f i l e s a r e r e q u i r e d i n c a l i b r a t i n g t h e M O D I F I E D m o d e l f o r e a c h C . M . A . : 1. C M A . S H U . T c o n t a i n s s e l e c t e d r e c o r d s f r o m t h e 1974 S u r v e y o f H o u s i n g U n i t s m a s t e r t a p e f i l e s . I n c r e a t i n g t h i s f i l e , s e v e r a l v a r i a b l e s a r e e i t h e r a g g r e g a t e d o r r e c a l c u l a t e d . T h i s f i l e r e p l a c e s C M A . S H U u s e d f o r t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l a n d p r o v i d e s i n p u t f o r t h e demand f u n c t i o n p a r a m e t e r e s t i m a t e s a n d t h e c r e a t i o n o f t h e 1971 " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s . 2 . C M A . R E G 0 2 T h i s f i l e , c r e a t d by t h e p r o g r a m " W O R K 0 0 . F O R T " c o n t a i n s d a t a d r a w n f r o m C M A . S H U a n d C M A . S H U . T a n d i s u s e d f o r h e d o n i c e q u a t i o n e s t i m a t i o n s . 3 . C M A . R E G 0 3 A l s o c r e a t e d by t h e p r o g r a m " W O R K 0 0 . F O R T " , d r a w i n g d a t a f r o m C M A . S H U a n d C M A . S H U . T . I t c o n t a i n s t h e i n p u t 328 v a r i a b l e s f o r t h e demand t r a n s l o g f u n c t i o n e s t i m a t e s . 4 . C M A . R E G 0 4 A l s o c r e a t e d by t h e p r o g r a m " W O R K 0 0 . F O R T " , d r a w i n g d a t a f r o m C M A . S H U a n d C M A . S H U . T . I t c o n t a i n s t h e 1974 SHU i n p u t v a r i a b l e s f o r t e s t i n g t h e s u p p l y s i d e t r a n s l o g f u n c t i o n e s t i m a t e s . 5 . C M A . R E G 0 5 A l s o c r e a t e d by t h e p r o g r a m " W O R K 0 0 . F O R T " , d r a w i n g d a t a f r o m C M A . S H U . T t o be u s e d i n t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b e t w e e n t h e o w n e r - o c c u p i e r ' s u s e r c o s t s a n d p r o p e r t y v a l u e . 6 . C M A . T . D A T A t h i s f i l e c o n t a i n s d a t a t r a n s f e r r e d f r o m C M A . R E G 0 3 a n d t h e r e g r e s s i o n o u t p u t p r i n t f i l e s by t h e u t i l i t y p r o g r a m s " W O R K 0 4 . F O R T " a n d " W O R K 0 7 . F O R T " . The f i r s t s e c t i o n c o n t a i n s d a t a on t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f i n c o m e s a n d mean s t a t i s t i c s on h o u s e h o l d c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s d i f f e r e n t i a t e d i n t o t h e s e v e n d i f f e r e n t g r o u p i n g s u s e d f o r e s t i m a t i n g . The s e c o n d s e c t i o n c o n t a i n s t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s f r o m t h e demand r e g r e s s i o n a l o n g w i t h t h e a s s o c i a t e d mean v a l u e s o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s . The t h i r d s e c t i o n c o n t a i n s t h e l o g l i k e l i h o o d v a l u e s f o r t h e u n c o n s t r a i n e d a n d c o n s t r a i n e d e s t i m a t e s u t i l i z e d i n d e r i v i n g t h e t e s t s t a t i s t i c s f o r t h e u n i t y i n c o m e e l a s t i c i t y . 329 C M A . S H U . T 1974 SURVEY OF HOUSING U N I T S ( M O D I F I E D m o d e l ) r i a b l e amber f i e l d number f i e l d name 1 1 0 1 - 03 s u r v e y a r e a 001 2 2 0 4 - 10 h o u s e h o l d w e i g h t 017 3 3 1 1 -1 2 t y p e o f d w e l l i n g 018 4 4 1 3 - 14 y e a r d w e l l i n g c o n s t r u c t e d 022 5 5 1 5 - 16 t o i l e t f a c i l i t i e s 026 6 6 1 7 - 18 t e n u r e 029 7 7 1 9 - 25 74 s e l l i n g p r i c e #01 8 8 2 6 - 32 74 O . S . B . m o r t g a g e s #02 9 9 3 3 - 37 74 m o n t h l y i n t e r e s t p a y m e n t s #03 10 10 3 8 - 42 74 m o n t h l y t o t a l m o r t g a g e p a y m e n t s #04 1 1 1 1 4 3 - 47 74 m o n t h l y a d d i t i o n a l t a x e s #05 1 2 1 2 4 8 - 52 74 m o n t h l y r e p a i r e x p e n d i t u r e #06 1 3 1 3 5 3 - 57 74 m o n t h l y r e n t p a y m e n t 088 1 4 1 4 5 8 - 62 74 m o n t h l y p a y m e n t s f o r a l l b a s i c u t i l i t i e s a n d s e r v i c e s 092 15 1 5 6 3 - 65 number o f l i v i n g rooms 069 1 6 1 6 6 6 - 68 number o f w o r k rooms 070 1 7 1 7 6 9 - 71 number o f b e d r o o m s 071 18 18 7 2 - 73 e x t e r i o r c o n d i t i o n 093 1 9 19 7 4 - 81 h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e 083 20 20 8 2 - 84 h o u s e h o l d s i z e 084 21 21 8 5 - 87 number o f c h i l d r e n 094 22 22 8 8 - 90 a g e o f h e a d 097 23 23 8 8 - 90 m a r i t a l s t a t u s o f h e a d 099 24 24 9 3 - 99 73 h e a d ' s i n c o m e 100 25 25 1 0 0 - 106 73 s p o u s e ' s i n c o m e 102 26 26 1 0 7 - 108 p r e s e n c e o f s p o u s e 101 27 27 1 0 9 - 110 1 i f m o r t g a g e p a y m e n t i n c l u d e s t a x e s 153 28 28 1 1 1 - 1 1 3 number o f d e f e c t s 016 29 29 1 14- 1 18 a r e a o f l i v i n g s p a c e 072 30 30 1 19 - 1 23 a r e a o f w o r k s p a c e 073 31 31 1 2 4 - 128 a r e a o f b e d r o o m s p a c e 074 32 32 1 2 9 - 131 l a n d u s e 1 076 33 33 1 3 2 - 134 l a n d u s e 2 077 34 34 1 3 5 - 1 37 l a n d u s e 3 078 35 35 1 3 8 - 139 b a s i c f a c i l i t i e s 087 36 36 1 4 0 - 141 c o n d i t i o n o f e x t e r i o r 093 37 37 1 4 2 - 143 r e a s o n f o r s e l e c t i n g 1 127 38 38 1 4 4 - 145 r e a s o n f o r s e l e c t i n g 2 128 330 note: V a r i a b l e s 7 through 12 have been computed from the raw data. The computations i n v o l v e d are (SHU v a r i a b l e p r e f i x e d by " S " ) ; 1. V07 = S32/S33 i f S33 non-zero. 2. V08 = (S35+S36+S37)/S33 i f S33 non-zero. 3. V09 = (S35*S41/100) + (S36*S42/100).+ (S37*S43/1 00) a l l d i v i d e d by (S33*12) i f S33 non-zero. 4. V10 = (S89+S90+S91)/S9l i f S33 non-zero. 5. V11 = S44/(S33*12) i f S33 non-zero. 6. V12 = S67/(S68*12) i f S68 non-zero and S66 = 1. 331 C M A . R E G 0 2 . SHU d a t a f o r H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s v a r i a b l e number f i e l d number f i e l d name 1 1 1 - 5 m o n t h l y e x p e n d i t u r e on h o u s i n g 2 2 6 - 10 t e n u r e 3 3 1 1 - 1 5 f u l l w a t e r s u p p l y 4 4 1 6 - 20 f u l l b a t h r o o m f a c i l i t i e s 5 5 2 1 - 25 t o i l e t 6 6 2 6 - 30 s u b s i d i s e d ? 7 7 3 1 - 35 L O G ( n u m b e r o f l i v i n g r o o m s ) * 1 0 0 0 0 . 8 8 3 6 - 40 L O G ( a f t e r t a x i n c o m e ) * 1 0 0 0 0 . 9 9 4 1 - 45 s t r u c t u r e T Y P E 10 10 4 6 - 50 L O G ( d i s t a n c e f r o m w o r k ) * l 0 0 0 0 . 1 1 1 1 5 1 - 55 a g e : b u i l t 66 t o 71 1 2 12 5 6 - 60 b u i l t 61 t o 65 1 3 1 3 6 1 - 65 b u i l t 51 t o 60 1 4 1 4 6 6 - 70 b u i l t 46 t o 50 1 5 1 5 7 1 - 75 b u i l t 21 t o 45 16 1 6 7 6 - 80 b u i l t p r e 1921 17 17 8 1 - 90 h o u s e h o l d w e i g h t 18 18 9 1 - 95 number d e f e c t s ( n o t u s e d ) 19 19 9 6 - 1 00 L O G U i v i n g room s i z e ) * l 0 0 0 0 . 20 20 1 0 1 - 1 05 L O G ( w o r k s p a c e s i z e ) * l 0 0 0 0 . 21 21 1 0 6 - 1 10 L O G ( b e d r o o m s i z e ) * l 0 0 0 0 . 22 22 1 1 1 - 1 1 5 o p e n s p a c e 23 23 1 1 6 -1 20 h i g h d e n s i t y n e i g h b o u r h o o d 24 24 1 2 1 - 1 25 c o m m e r c i a l n e i g h b o u r h o o d 25 25 1 2 6 - 1 30 p r e s e n c e o f b a s i c f a c i l i t i e s 26 26 1 3 1 - 1 35 p o o r e x t e r i o r 27 27 1 3 6 - 1 40 f a i r e x t e r i o r 28 28 1 4 1 - 1 45 c h o o s e b e c a u s e o f n e i g h b o u r h o o d 29 29 1 4 6 - 1 50 c h o o s e b e c a u s e o f f i n a n c e 30 30 1 5 1 - 1 55 a v e r a g e c o s t o f f i n a n c e ( O - O e r s o n l y ) n o t e : t h e c o m p u t a t i o n s o f t h e s e v a r i a b l e s a r e d e t a i l e d i n t h e p r o g r a m " W O R K 0 0 . F O R T " . 332 C M A . R E G 0 3 f i l e : SHU d a t a f o r T r a n s l o g R e g r e s s i o n s : Demand f i e l d v a r i a b l e number f i e l d number name 1 2 3 4 5 6 n o t e : t h i s w i t h 1 2 3 4 5 6 f i l e d a t a 1- 5 6 - 1 5 1 6 - 2 5 2 6 - 3 5 3 6 - 4 5 4 6 - 5 5 h o u s e h o l d T Y P E m o n t h l y h o u s i n g e x p e n d i t u r e m o n t h l y a f t e r t a x i n c o m e p r i c e p e r u n i t o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e p r i c e p e r u n i t o f o t h e r g o o d s h o u s e h o l d w e i g h t i s g e n e r a t d by t h e p r o g r a m " W O R K 0 0 . F O R T " d r a w n f r o m C M A . S H U . T a n d C M A . S H U C M A . R E G 0 4 f i l e : SHU d a t a f o r T r a n s l o g R e g r e s s i o n s : S u p p l y f i e l d f i e l d number name 1 1 1 - 5 h o u s e h o l d T Y P E 2 2 6 - 1 5 h o u s i n g e x p e n d i t u r e 3 3 1 6 - 25 p r o f i t 4 4 2 6 - 35 w e a l t h ( P R O F I T f u n c t i o n ) 5 5 3 6 - 45 c o s t 6 6 4 6 - 55 w e a l t h (COST f u n c t i o n ) 7 7 5 6 - 65 p r i c e p e r u n i t o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e n o t e : t h i s f i l e i s g e n e r a t d by t h e p r o g r a m " W O R K 0 0 . F O R T " w i t h d a t a d r a w n f r o m C M A . S H U . T a n d C M A . S H U C M A . R E G 0 5 f i l e : SHU d a t a f o r U s e r C o s t / V a l u e R a t i o R e g r e s s i o n s f i e l d name v a r i a b l e number f i e l d number 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1- 5 6 - 1 5 1 6 - 2 5 2 6 - 3 5 h o u s e h o l d T Y P E e x p e n d i t u r e / v a l u e R A T I O v a l u e o f d w e l l i n g a n n u a l e x p e n d i t u r e n o t e : t h i s f i l e i s g e n e r a t d by t h e p r o g r a m " W O R K 0 0 . F O R T " w i t h d a t a d r a w n f r o m C M A . S H U . T . : c o n t a i n s o n l y o w n e r - o c c u p i e r d a t a p o i n t s 333 A 2 . 2 M O D I F I E D m o d e l : A n a l y t i c a l C a l c u l a t i o n s A 2 . 2 1 New C o n s t r u c t i o n C o s t s The a p p r o a c h u s e d by t h e U . I . i n c a l c u l a t i n g t h e c o s t p e r u n i t o f new h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s i n v o l v e s t h e w e i g h t i n g o f a c t u a l c o s t s f o r t h e d u r a t i o n o f t h e d e c a d e . I n t h e M O D I F I E D m o d e l t h e f u n c t i o n a l s p e c i f i c a t i o n s a r e b a s e d on a d e c a d e - e n d c o s t o f c o n s t r u c t i o n . The c a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e s e c o s t s on a C M . A . b a s i s u n d e r t h e same a p p r o a c h a r e i n c l u d e d i n S e c t i o n A 1 . 2 1 , w i t h t h e d e r i v e d r e s u l t s r e p o r t e d i n T a b l e A 3 : 1 0 . T h e s e c o s t s a r e b a s e d on t h e c h a n g e s i n c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f a m i n i m u m q u a l i t y ( q u a n t i t y ) o w n e r - o c c u p i e r d w e l l i n g . T h e i r s h o r t c o m i n g s a r e t h a t , f i r s t l y , t h e y do n o t r e p r e s e n t c o s t c h a n g e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h h i g h e r q u a l i t y h o u s i n g , i n p a r t i c u l a r t h e i m p a c t o f t h e c o s t o f a v a i l a b l e s i t e s f o r c o n s t r u c t i o n . S e c o n d l y , t h e y may n o t r e p r e s e n t l o n g r u n e q u i l i b r i u m c o s t s , a s i s a s s u m e d i n t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e demand a n d s u p p l y f u n c t i o n s . T h i s d i s e q u i l i b r i u m may r e s u l t f r o m a s h o r t r u n u p s w i n g i n t h e p r i c e o f e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s a t t h e e n d o f t h e d e c a d e . F i n a l l y , i n d e p e n d e n t c o s t s f o r r e n t a l a n d o w n e r - o c c u p i e d d w e l l i n g s a r e r e q u i r e d i n o r d e r t o r e f l e c t t h e r e l a t i v e c h a n g e s i n r e n t a l a n d o w n e r - o c c u p i e r p r o d u c t i o n c o s t s a r i s i n g f r o m d i f f e r e n t s t r u c t u r e t y p e s a n d t h e d i f f e r e n t i a l t a x a t i o n t r e a t m e n t . By n e c e s s i t y , t h e p r i c e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n h a s b e e n d e r i v e d f r o m t h e c h a n g e i n r e n t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h r e n t a l d w e l l i n g s a n d t h e m a r k e t v a l u e o f o w n e r - o c c u p i e r d w e l l i n g s c o n s t r u c t e d i n 1 9 6 0 - 1 9 6 1 a n d 1 9 7 0 - 1 9 7 1 , a s r e p o r t e d i n t h e r e s p e c t i v e c e n s u s . The c o m p u t a t i o n p r o c e d u r e i n v o l v e s t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e r a t i o s o f t h e r e n t s t o d e r i v e t h e c o s t p e r u n i t o f r e n t a l h o u s i n g ; t h e r a t i o o f 334 u s e r c o s t s b a s e d on m a r k e t v a l u e s , c u r r e n t m o r t g a g e r a t e s a n d e s t i m a t e d o p e r a t i n g c o s t s f o r o w n e r s . The 1971 o w n e r - o c c u p i e r s ' u s e r c o s t s w e r e d e r i v e d f r o m t h e SHU d a t a s e t a n d d i v i d e d by t h e m a r k e t v a l u e (MV) t o o b t a i n t h e " t o t a l f a c t o r " . The m o n t h l y m o r t g a g e f a c t o r (MR) o f 0 . 0 0 7 8 8 3 was b a s e d on t h e r e p o r t e d mean C a n a d i a n r a t e o f 9 . 4 6 % . " O t h e r " , r e p r e s e n t i n g m o n t h l y c o s t s o t h e r t h a n i n t e r e s t , i s t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e " t o t a l " a n d t h e m o r t g a g e f a c t o r . T h i s " o t h e r " f a c t o r i s a s s u m e d t o - b e c o n s t a n t a c r o s s t h e d e c a d e , w h i l e t h e m o n t h l y m o r t g a g e f a c t o r i n 1961 r e f l e c t s a n i n t e r e s t r a t e o f 7 . 0 0 % . The r e s u l t i n g " t o t a l " f a c t o r i s t h e n m u l t i p l i e d by t h e 1961 m a r k e t v a l u e t o y i e l d t h e u s e r c o s t . T h e s e c a l c u l a t i o n s a r e d e t a i l e d i n T a b l e A 2 : 0 1 w i t h t h e s e p a r a t e PN v a l u e s f o r r e n t e d a n d o w n e r - o c c u p i e d d w e l l i n g s r e p o r t e d . I n a l l c a s e s t h e PN f o r o w n e r - o c c u p i e d i s h i g h e r t h a n t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g r e n t a l v a l u e , r e f l e c t i n g t y p i c a l l y a l o w e r g r o w t h r a t e i n m a r k e t r e n t s t h a n i n c r e a s e s i n o w n e r s h i p c o s t s , i n p a r t i c u l a r f i n a n c i n g c o s t s . 335 C a l g a r y K i t c h e n e r Q u e b e c C i t y S t . J o h n ' s R e n t a l : 1961 r e n t 1971 r e n t 8 3 . 1 3 7 . 7 2 . 1 2 0 . 6 5 . 1 0 0 . 7 8 . 1 0 1 . PN 1 . 6 5 1 . 6 7 1 . 5 4 1 . 3 0 O w n e r s : 1971 MV u s e r c o s t 2 3 1 8 4 . 2 1 5 . 4 2 2 5 1 7 3 . 2 4 6 . 6 3 1 8 8 8 1 . 2 1 0 . 9 1 1 8 8 0 9 . 2 0 6 . 4 3 F a c t o r s : T o t a l MR o t h e r . 0 0 9 2 9 1 8 . 0 0 7 8 8 3 3 . 0 0 1 4 0 8 5 . 0 0 9 7 9 7 4 . 0 0 7 8 8 3 3 . 0 0 1 9 1 4 1 . 0 1 1 1 7 0 5 . 0 0 7 8 8 3 3 . 0 0 3 2 8 7 2 . 0 1 0 9 7 5 1 . 0 0 7 8 8 3 3 . 0 0 3 0 9 1 8 1961 MV F a c t o r s : MR o t h e r T o t a l 1 5 8 9 8 . . 0 0 5 8 3 3 3 . 0 0 1 4 0 8 5 . 0 0 7 2 4 1 8 1 3 5 1 0 . . 0 0 5 8 3 3 3 . 0 0 1 9 1 4 1 . 0 0 7 7 4 7 4 1 4 3 4 0 . . 0 0 5 8 3 3 3 . 0 0 3 2 8 7 2 . 0 0 9 1 2 0 5 1 3 5 8 4 . . 0 0 5 8 3 3 3 . 0 0 3 0 9 1 8 . 0 0 8 9 2 5 1 u s e r c o s t 1 1 5 . 1 3 1 0 4 . 6 7 1 3 0 . 7 9 121 . 2 4 PN 1 . 8 7 2 . 3 6 1.61 1 . 7 0 R e n t a l : 1961 r e n t 1971 r e n t S a s k a t o o n 8 3 . 1 0 1 . S u d b u r y 7 8 . 1 2 2 . V a n c o u v e r 8 5 . 1 3 5 . W i n n i p < 7 9 . 1 1 3 . PN 1 . 2 2 1 . 5 6 1 . 5 9 1 . 4 3 O w n e r s : 1971 MV u s e r c o s t 1 7 4 8 0 . 1 7 3 . 3 4 2 1 9 5 8 . 2 4 2 . 8 3 2 7 2 7 9 . 2 7 6 . 9 6 1 7 6 7 9 . 1 8 4 . 7 5 F a c t o r s : T o t a l MR o t h e r . 0 0 9 9 1 6 5 . 0 0 7 8 8 3 3 . 0 0 2 0 3 3 2 . 0 1 1 0 5 8 8 . 0 0 7 8 8 3 3 . 0 0 3 1 7 5 5 . 0 1 0 1 5 2 9 . 0 0 7 8 8 3 3 . 0 0 2 2 6 9 6 . 0 1 0 4 5 0 3 . 0 0 7 8 8 3 3 . 0 0 2 5 6 7 0 1961 MV F a c t o r s : MR o t h e r T o t a l 1 3 5 1 5 . . 0 0 5 8 3 3 3 . 0 0 2 0 3 3 2 . 0 0 7 8 6 6 5 1 4 0 8 9 . . 0 0 5 8 3 3 3 . 0 0 3 1 7 5 5 . 0 0 9 0 0 8 9 1 5 3 3 9 . . 0 0 5 8 3 3 3 . 0 0 2 2 6 9 6 . 0 0 8 1 0 2 9 13221 . . 0 0 5 8 3 3 3 . 0 0 2 5 6 7 0 . 0 0 8 4 0 0 3 u s e r c o s t 1 0 6 . 3 2 1 2 6 . 9 3 1 2 4 . 2 9 1 1 1 . 0 6 PN 1 . 6 3 1.91 2 . 2 3 1 . 6 6 T a b l e A 2 : 0 1 C a l c u l a t i o n ' o f E f f e c t i v e D e c a d e E n d C o n s t r u c t i o n C o s t s 336 A 2 . 2 2 C o m p u t a t i o n o f O w n e r s h i p C o s t s T h e s u p p l y f u n c t i o n f o r m u l a t i o n i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t h e M O D I F I E D m o d e l i s o f a d i s c o n t i n u o u s l i n e a r f o r m . The b r e a k p o i n t i s a s s u m e d t o o c c u r a t a p r i c e e q u a l t o t h e o w n e r s h i p c o s t s n e t o f r e p a i r s a n d m a i n t e n a n c e . O w n e r s h i p c o s t s a r e d e f i n e d t o i n c l u d e n o r m a l o p e r a t i n g c o s t s a n d f i n a n c i n g c o s t s . T h e s e c o s t s a r e c a l c u l a t e d a s a p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e mean p r i c e on a C M . A . a n d t e n u r e b a s i s a s f o l l o w s : % % r e p a i r s f i n a n c e a s o w n e r o p e r a t i n g c a p i t a l a s % % c a p i t a l c o s t % [ 1 ] [ 1 ] [ 3 ] C M . A . C a l g a r y . 3 3 . 6 7 . 3 0 r e n t . 7 5 . 7 3 o - o e r s . 5 9 . 6 3 K i t c h e n e r . 3 6 . 6 4 . 2 6 r e n t . 7 5 . 7 5 o - o e r s . 4 4 . 5 5 Q u e b e c . 4 0 . 6 0 . 2 9 r e n t . 7 5 . 7 4 o - o e r s .51 . 5 9 S t . J o h n ' s . 3 0 . 7 0 . 2 9 r e n t . 7 5 . 7 4 o - o e r s . 5 3 . 5 8 S a s k a t o o n . 3 9 .61 . 2 3 r e n t . 7 5 . 7 6 o - o e r s . 5 6 . 6 4 S u d b u r y . 3 4 . 6 6 . 2 6 r e n t . 7 5 . 7 5 o - o e r s . 4 4 . 5 4 V a n c o u v e r . 2 9 .71 . 2 6 r e n t . 7 5 . 7 5 o - o e r s .41 . 5 0 W i n n i p e g . 3 4 . 6 6 . 2 2 r e n t . 7 5 . 7 6 o - o e r s . 4 9 . 5 9 s o u r c e : [ 1 ] T a b l e s A 3 : 1 0 s p l i t f o r 1971 [ 2 ] 1969 S u r v e y o f F a m i l y E x p e n d i t u r e s [ 3 ] t h e o w n e r - o c c u p i e r p e r c e n t f i n a n c e d i s d e r i v e d f r o m t h e 1974 S H U ; t h e r e n t a l p e r c e n t h a s s i m p l y b e e n s e t t o a m a r k e t n o r m . T a b l e A 2 : 0 2 O w n e r s h i p C o s t s a s % o f Mean P r i c e 337 A 2 . 3 M O D I F I E D m o d e l : Demand F u n c t i o n E s t i m a t i o n The d e r i v a t i o n o f t h e demand s i d e b e h a v i o u r a l p a r a m e t e r s i s b a s e d on t h e d i r e c t e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e demand f u n c t i o n s on a h o u s e h o l d T Y P E b a s i s . The p r e p a r a t i o n o f t h e i n p u t d a t a s e t f o r t h e e s t i m a t i o n p r o c e d u r e i n v o l v e s t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f H e d o n i c c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r t h e 1974 S u r v e y o f H o u s i n g U n i t s d a t a . I n t h e f o l l o w i n g S e c t i o n t h e d a t a p r e p a r a t i o n f o r t h e H e d o n i c s , t h e H e d o n i c e s t i m a t e s a n d t h e T r a n s l o g e s t i m a t i o n s o f t h e e x p e n d i t u r e s h a r e e q u a t i o n s f r o m w h i c h t h e demand f u n c t i o n s a r e d e r i v e d , a r e d e s c r i b e d . A 2 . 3 1 P r e p a r a t i o n f o r E s t i m a t i o n o f t h e Demand F u n c t i o n s The e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e e x p e n d i t u r e s h a r e f u n c t i o n s u n d e r a d i r e c t u t i l i t y s p e c i f i c a t i o n r e q u i r e s t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f b o t h t h e q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s c o n s u m e d a n d t h e h o u s h o l d ' s a f t e r t a x i n c o m e ( b e i n g t h e a s s u m e d a p p r o x i m a t i o n f o r e x p e n d i t u r e ) , a s n e i t h e r i s r e c o r d e d . The d e r i v a t i o n o f t h e q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s by n e c e s s i t y f o l l o w s a n a p p r o a c h s i m i l a r t o t h a t u s e d i n g e n e r a t i n g " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s ; t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e a f t e r t a x i n c o m e s i n v o l v e s c a l c u l a t i n g t h e t a x l i a b i l i t y o f t h e h o u s e h o l d , c o n s i d e r i n g a l l s o u r c e s o f i n c o m e , a n d p e r s o n a l a n d n o n - p e r s o n a l d e d u c t i o n s . The p r o g r a m " W O R K 0 0 . F O R T " h a s b e e n w r i t t e n t o c o n v e r t t h e 1974 S u r v e y o f H o u s i n g U n i t s d a t a f i r s t l y i n t o a d a t a f i l e i n c l u d i n g c a l c u l a t e d h o u s i n g e x p e n d i t u r e , a f t e r t a x i n c o m e a n d o t h e r a t t r i b u t e s a p p l i c a b l e t o t h e d e r i v a t i o n o f t h e H e d o n i c c o e f f i c i e n t s , a n d t h e n s e c o n d l y r e p r o c e s s t h e SHU d a t a u t i l i z i n g t h e H e d o n i c c o e f f i c i e n t s t o c o n v e r t t h e c a l c u l a t e d h o u s i n g 338 e x p e n d i t u r e t o a q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s , f o r o u t p u t t o t h e t r a n s l o g r e g r e s s i o n i n p u t f i l e . The SHU d a t a s e t c o n t a i n s 1974 p r i c e / r e n t d a t a w h i c h m us t be d e f l a t e d t o 1971 v a l u e s . T h i s i s a c h i e v e d by u s i n g " W O R K 0 0 . F O R T " t o d e r i v e t h e mean r e n t a n d v a l u e f o r t h e SHU d a t a s e t . A d e f l a t o r , c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e r a t i o o f t h e c o m p u t e d v a l u e s f r o m t h e 1971 C e n s u s d a t a a n d t h e s e means a r e u s e d a s i n p u t t o " W O R K 0 0 . F O R T " when d e r i v i n g t h e a l t e r n a t i v e d a t a s e t s . The c a l c u l a t i o n s o f t h e d e f l a t o r s a r e i n c l u d e d a s T a b l e A 2 : 0 3 . C A L K I T QUE J H N SAS SUB VAN WIN R e n t s 1971 127 119 98 103 100 120 129 108 1974 152 145 122 149 128 139 165 131 d e f l a t o r . 8 3 5 5 3 . 8 2 0 6 9 . 8 0 3 2 8 . 6 9 1 2 8 . 7 8 1 2 5 . 8 6 3 3 1 . 7 8 1 8 2 . 8 2 4 4 3 V a l u e s 1971 2 3 7 4 2 25532 2 0 5 8 8 2 1 3 6 4 17965 23471 28744 19016 1974 38081 42266 28261 3 2 7 2 0 27877 30990 52392 2 5 9 2 5 d e f l a t o r . 6 2 3 4 6 . 6 0 4 0 8 . 7 2 8 5 0 . 6 5 2 9 3 . 6 4 4 4 4 . 7 5 7 3 7 . 5 4 8 6 3 . 7 3 3 5 0 n o t e : d e r i v e d f r o m T a b l e s A 3 : 6 f o r 1971 a n d " W O R K 0 0 . F O R T " ( o p t i o n 0) f o r 1974 T a b l e A 2 : 0 3 R e n t a n d V a l u e D e f l a t o r s f o r 1974 SHU The SHU d a t a r e p o r t s 1973 t o t a l h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e s , t h e h e a d ' s i n c o m e a n d t h e s p o u s e ' s i n c o m e . By a s s u m i n g t h a t a n y a d d i t i o n a l i n c o m e o v e r a n d a b o v e t h a t r e p o r t e d f o r t h e h e a d a n d t h e s p o u s e i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h a t h i r d p e r s o n o n l y , a maximum o f t h r e e i n c o m e s o u r c e s c a n be d i f f e r e n t i a t e d . F i r s t l y , t h e 1973 i n c o m e s a r e d e f l a t e d t o e q u i v a l e n t 1971 v a l u e u s i n g p r o v i n c i a l i n d i c e s , by 339 h o u s e h o l d T Y P E a n d by h e a d o r s p o u s e , d r a w n f r o m t h e 1972 a n d 1974 H I F E s u r v e y d a t a p r e p a r e d f o r C a n a d a M o r t g a g e a n d H o u s i n g by S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a . T h e n i n c a l c u l a t i n g t h e t a x l i a b i l t y f o r e a c h o f t h e t h r e e s o u r c e s , e x e m p t i o n s w e r e made i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h t h e 1971 T a x S c h e d u l e . The e x e m p t i o n s c o n s i d e r e d w e r e : 1. a m a r r i e d p e r s o n a l l o w a n c e i f s p o u s e p r e s e n t a n d i n c o m e l e s s t h a n $ 1 2 5 0 . 2 . p e r s o n a l e x e m p t i o n o f $1000 p e r i n c o m e s o u r c e . 3 . age e x e m p t i o n t o a l l p e r s o n s o v e r 65 y e a r s o f a g e . 4 . $300 p e r c h i l d a l l o c a t e d t o t h e h i g h e s t i n c o m e s o u r c e . 5 . o t h e r n o n - p e r s o n a l d e d u c t i o n s a r e a s s i g n e d a s 7 .5% o f g r o s s i n c o m e . T h i s p e r c e n t a g e was e s t i m a t e d on a n a t i o n a l b a s i s v i a s i m p l e r e g r e s s i o n f o r d a t a r e p o r t e d i n T a x a t i o n S t a t i s t i c s ( 1 9 7 3 E d i t i o n - 1971 T a x a t i o n Y e a r ) w i t h a n R2 o f 0 . 9 9 . The t a x on i n c o m e s i n e x c e s s o f e x e m p t i o n s i s c a l c u l a t e d i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h t h e f o l l o w i n g t a b l e : I n c a l c u l a t i n g t h e t a x e s i t i s a s s u m e d t h a t a l l g o v e r n m e n t t r a n s f e r s a r e t r e a t e d a s t a x a b l e i n c o m e . F o r a r e n t i n g h o u s e h o l d , a f t e r t a x i n c o m e i s s i m p l y t h e g r o s s m i n u s t a x e s ; f o r o w n e r s , o p p o r t u n i t y i n c o m e a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e i r e q u i t y h o l d i n g i n t h e i r p r o p e r t y i s a d d e d t o t h e i r n e t i n c o m e . t a x a b l e i n c o m e t a x 500 o r l e s s n i l 500 2000 3000 n i l + 16% 240 + 18% 420 + 19% 4000 6000 8000 610 + 22% 1050 + 26% 1570 + 30% 10000 1 2000 1 5000 2170 + 35% 2870 + 40% 4070 + 45% 2 5 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 0 6 0 0 0 0 8750 + 50% 16070 + 55% 27070 + 60% 340 The m o n t h l y e x p e n d i t u r e on h o u s i n g f o r r e n t e r s i s t a k e n a s t h e m o n t h l y r e n t p l u s o t h e r r e p o r t e d e x p e n d i t u r e s on u t i l i t i e s . W i t h o w n e r - o c c u p i e r s , t h e m o n t h l y e x p e n d i t u r e i s c o n s i d e r e d t o i n c l u d e i n t e r e s t p a y m e n t s ( n o t t h e f u l l m o r t g a g e p a y m e n t ) , u t i l i t i e s p a y m e n t s , r e p a i r s , m a i n t e n a n c e a n d t h e o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t o f e q u i t y . I t h a s b e e n a s s u m e d t h a t t h e e q u i t y h o l d i n g ( e x p e c t e d n e t s a l e p r i c e m i n u s t h e m o r t g a g e b a l a n c e ) i s an a d d i t i o n a l m o r t g a g e t o t h e o w n e r e a r n i n g t a x f r e e i n t e r e s t a t t h e c u r r e n t m a r k e t r a t e o f 0 . 9 4 7 5 % p e r m o n t h . T h i s m o n t h l y e x p e n d i t u r e was t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e f o r t h e H e d o n i c e s t i m a t e s . The i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e s u s e d i n a d d i t i o n t o a f t e r t a x i n c o m e a r e d e t a i l e d i n t h e d e s c r i p t i o n o f t h e f i l e C M A . R E G 0 2 i n S e c t i o n A 2 . 1 1 . The a p p r o a c h t a k e n i n d e r i v i n g s u i t a b l e common H e d o n i c e q u a t i o n s a c r o s s t h e e i g h t C . M . A . s was t o s i m p l y r u n a s t e p w i s e r e g r e s s i o n on e a c h C M . A . a n d t h e n s e l e c t t h e m o s t c o n s i s t e n t v a r i a b l e s . The two H e d o n i c m o d e l s a r e a s f o l l o w s : 341 R E N T A L MODEL L O G ( E X P E N D ) = CONSTANT + BATH : 1 . i f f u l l s e r v i c e , 0 . o t h e r w i s e + T O I L E T : 1 . i f f u l l s e r v i c e , 0 . o t h e r w i s e + S U B S I D I S : 1 . i f s u b s i d i s e d u n i t . + L G L I V I N G : LOG o f number o f l i v i n g rooms + L G I N C O M : LOG o f t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s m o n t h l y a f t e r t a x i n c o m e + T Y P E 1 . i f m u l t i p l e u n i t s t r u c t u r e , 0 . o t h e r w i s e + L G D I S T : LOG Of t h e r e p o r t e d d i s t a n c e t o w o r k + B 5 1 6 0 : 1 . i f b u i l t 1961 t h r o u g h 1 9 6 0 , 0 . o t h e r w i s e + B 4 6 5 0 : 1 . i f b u i l t 1946 t h r o u g h 1 9 5 0 , 0 . o t h e r w i s e + B 2 1 4 5 : 1 . i f b u i l t 1921 t h r o u g h 1 9 4 5 , 0 . o t h e r w i s e + B P R E 2 0 : 1 . i f b u i l t p r i o r t o 1 9 2 0 , 0 . o t h e r w i s e + L G L V S I Z E : LOG o f t h e s i z e o f t h e l i v i n g a r e a s + L G B D S I Z E : LOG o f t h e s i z e o f t h e b e d r o o m a r e a s + OPENSP : 1 . i f p r o p e r t y a d j a c e n t t o o p e n s p a c e , 0 . o t h e r w i s e + HIGHDEN : 1 . i f a d j a c e n t p r o p e r t y a p a r t m e n t s , 0 . o t h e r w i s e + COMMERC : 1 . i f a d j a c e n t p r o p e r t y c o m m e r c i a l , 0 . o t h e r w i s e + N E I G H B D : 1 . i f r e n t e d due t o n e i g h b o u r h o o d , 0 . o t h e r w i s e + F I N A N C E : 1 . i f r e n t e d due t o l o w r e n t , 0 . o t h e r w i s e 342 OWNER-OCCUPIER MODEL L O G ( E X P E N D ) = CONSTANT + BATH : 1. i f f u l l s e r v i c e , 0 . o t h e r w i s e + T O I L E T : 1. i f f u l l s e r v i c e , 0 . o t h e r w i s e + S U B S I D I S : 1. i f s u b s i d i s e d u n i t . + L G L I V I N G : LOG o f number o f l i v i n g r o o m s + L G I N C O M : LOG o f t h e h o u s e h o l d m o n t h l y a f t e r t a x i n c o m e + T Y P E : 1 . i f m u l t i p l e u n i t s t r u c t u r e , 0 . o t h e r w i s e + L G D I S T : LOG o f t h e r e p o r t e d d i s t a n c e t o w o r k + B 5 1 6 0 : 1. i f b u i l t 1961 t h r o u g h 1 9 6 0 , 0 . o t h e r w i s e + B 4 6 5 0 : 1. i f b u i l t 1946 t h r o u g h 1 9 5 0 , 0 . o t h e r w i s e + B 2 1 4 5 : 1. i f b u i l t 1921 t h r o u g h 1 9 4 5 , 0 . o t h e r w i s e + BPRE2 0 : 1. i f b u i l t p r i o r t o 1 9 2 0 , 0 . o t h e r w i s e + L G L V S I Z E : LOG o f t h e s i z e o f t h e l i v i n g a r e a s + L G B D S I Z E : LOG o f t h e s i z e o f t h e b e d r o o m a r e a s + OPENSP : 1 . i f p r o p e r t y a d j a c e n t t o o p e n s p a c e , 0 . o t h e r w i s e + HIGHDEN : 1. i f a d j a c e n t p r o p e r t y a p a r t m e n t s , 0 . o t h e r w i s e + F I N A N C E : 1. i f b r o u g h t due t o f i n a n c e , 0 . o t h e r w i s e + AMRATE : a v e r a g e r a t e o f i n t e r e s t p a i d on m o r t g a g e s G i v e n t h e l a r g e s a m p l e o f i n d i v i d u a l o b s e r v a t i o n s , t h e g e n e r a l g o o d n e s s - o f - f i t s t i l l e x c e e d s t h a t a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e H e d o n i c m o d e l s d e r i v e d f r o m t h e 1961 a n d 1971 a g g r e g a t e d C e n s u s d a t a . The a d d i t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n o f i m p o r t a n c e a v a i l a b l e f r o m t h e SHU f i l e i n c l u d e s t h e l i v i n g a n d b e d r o m a r e a s ( e n t e r e d i n t o t h e e q u a t i o n i n a l o g a r i t h m i c f o r m ) , i n f o r m a t i o n on f i n a n c i n g f o r o w n e r - o c c u p i e r s ( e n t e r e d i n t o e q u a t i o n s a s a c o s t o f f i n a n c i n g ) a n d w h e t h e r o r n o t t h e d w e l l i n g u n i t was s u b s i d i s e d . C o m p l e t e r e s u l t s f o r b o t h t h e r e n t a l a n d o w n e r - o c c u p i e r e q u a t i o n s a r e r e p o r t e d on a C M . A . b a s i s i n F i g u r e s A 3 : 1 4 . An e x a m p l e s e t f o r V a n c o u v e r i s i n c l u d e d a s T a b l e A 2 : 0 4 . R e n t a l O w n e r - O c c u p : CONSTANT 2 . 5 3 3 5 1 . 4 9 9 9 ( 2 1 . 9 ) ( 5 . 5 0 ) BATH 0 . 6 0 6 8 na ( 3 . 4 1 ) T O I L E T - . 4 3 3 8 0 . 1 9 1 3 ( 2 . 4 1 ) ( 0 . 9 8 ) S U B S I D I S - . 2 9 4 0 - . 0 2 5 1 ( 1 0 . 1 ) ( 0 . 5 0 ) L G L I V I N G 0 . 2 1 7 6 0 . 1 2 5 4 ( 7 . 2 1 ) ( 3 . 3 1 ) LGINCOM 0 . 1 5 4 6 0 . 2 0 3 2 ( 1 1 . 9 ) ( 9 . 6 2 ) T Y P E - . 1 3 5 4 - . 3 0 7 7 ( 8 . 5 1 ) ( 9 . 3 4 ) L G D I S T - . 0 0 6 2 - . 0 0 4 1 ( 0 . 8 6 ) ( 0 . 5 0 ) B51 60 - . 0 8 9 2 - . 1 1 0 6 ( 4 . 1 9 ) ( 4 . 5 5 ) B 4 6 5 0 - . 0 9 8 6 - . 0 9 0 4 ( 3 . 3 3 ) ( 3 . 4 7 ) B21 45 - . 0 5 5 8 - . 1183 ( 2 . 5 6 ) ( 5 . 5 1 ) B P R E 2 0 - . 1 4 6 6 - . 1 1 8 3 ( 4 . 9 0 ) ( 5 . 5 1 ) L G L V S I Z E 0 . 1 6 4 4 0 . 2 4 5 5 ( 8 . 5 3 ) ( 8 . 5 3 ) L G B D S I Z E 0 . 0 6 4 0 0 . 0 2 9 5 • ( 1 3 . 2 ) ( 2 . 5 0 ) OPENSP 0 . 0 3 1 0 0 . 0 3 3 2 ( 1 . 6 5 ) ( 1 . 0 9 ) HIGHDEN 0 . 0 3 0 1 - . 1 4 2 6 ( 1 . 7 8 ) ( 1 . 0 9 ) COMMERC - . 0 4 1 3 na ( 2 . 4 0 ) NEIGHBD 0 . 0 5 8 9 na ( 2 . 7 8 ) F I N A N C E - . 0 3 8 2 - . 0 6 5 5 ( 2 . 3 7 ) ( 2 . 7 2 ) AMRATE n a 0 . 0 8 9 1 ( 1 6 . 9 ) R2 0 . 5 8 0 . 5 1 O b s e r v a t i o n s 1 345 1 228 n o t e : " t " s t a t i s t i c s i n b r a c k e t s : d a t a s o u r c e : V A N . R E G 0 2 T a b l e A 2 : 0 4 1971 H e d o n i c s f o r T r a n s l o g E s t i m a t e s ( V a n c o u v e r ) 345 On t h e s e c o n d p a s s t h r o u g h t h e p r o g r a m " W O R K 0 0 . F O R T " , t h e s e e s t i m a t e d c o e f f i c i e n t s a r e i n c l u d e d a s i n p u t f r o m t h e c o n t r o l d e c k . To e s t i m a t e t h e t r a n s l o g e x p e n d i t u r e s h a r e f u n c t i o n f o r a d i r e c t u t i l i t y s y s t e m , d a t a on t o t a l e x p e n d i t u r e s a n d h o u s i n g e x p e n d i t u r e s , t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e q u a n t i t i e s o f h o u s i n g a n d o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s a r e r e q u i r e d . T o t a l e x p e n d i t u r e i s e q u a t e d t o a f t e r - t a x i n c o m e on t h e a s s u n p t i o n t h a t n e t s a v i n g s a r e i n c l u d e d i n o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s . E x p e n d i t u r e s on h o u s i n g a r e c a l c u l a t e d i n t h e same manne r a s t h o s e f o r t h e h e d o n i c f i l e . T h e q u a n t i t i e s o f h o u s i n g a n d o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s a r e n o t r e p o r t e d a n d m us t be c a l c u l a t e d . An a d d i t i o n a l c o m p l i c a t i o n a r i s e s i n a s m u c h a s t h e m o d e l o p e r a t e s i n t e r m s o f 1961 u n i t s , r e q u i r i n g t h e d e f l a t i o n o f 1971 e x p e n d i t u r e s . The a p p r o a c h t a k e n h a s b e e n t o o b t a i n t h e r e s p e c t i v e 1971 p r i c e s a s s u m i n g a 1961 p r i c e o f 1 .00 p e r u n i t . F o r o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s t h i s s i m p l y i n v o l v e d c a l c u l a t i n g t h e C o n s u m e r P r i c e I n d e x ( S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a B u l l e t i n ( 6 2 - 0 0 2 m o n t h l y ) ) f o r 1 9 7 1 , a s s u m i n g 1961 = 1 . 0 0 . W h i l e t h e C . P . I , i n c l u d e s a l a r g e c o m p o n e n t o f h o u s i n g , i n s u f f i c i e n t d a t a e x i s t on a C M . A . b a s i s t o i s o l a t e a n o n - h o u s i n g i n d e x . The 1971 p r i c e u n i t v a l u e s o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s u s e d f o r t h e e i g h t C . M . A . s a r e : 1971 p r i c e / u n i t o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s V a n c o u v e r W i n n i p e g C a l g a r y K i t c h e n e r Q u e b e c C i t y S t . J o h n ' s S a s k a t o o n S u d b u r y 1 . 2 8 2 1 . 3 0 0 1 . 2 7 0 1 .241 .1 . 2 3 7 1 . 3 5 0 1 . 2 7 0 1 . 2 8 9 s o u r c e : S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a B u l l e t i n ( 6 2 - 0 0 2 m o n t h l y ) T a b l e A 2 : 0 5 P r i c e p e r U n i t o f O t h e r G o o d s a n d S e r v i c e s 3 4 6 I n d e r i v i n g t h e p r i c e p e r u n i t o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s t h r e e f a c t o r s m us t be c o n s i d e r e d . F i r s t l y , h o u s i n g p r i c e i n f l a t i o n i n g e n e r a l o v e r t h e d e c a d e . S e c o n d l y t h e r e l a t i v e c h a n g e s o f r e n t a l h o u s i n g a n d o w n e r - o c c u p i e r h o u s i n g p r i c e s a r i s i n g f r o m d i f f e r e n t s t r u c t u r e t y p e s a n d t h e d i f f e r e n t i a l t a x a t i o n t r e a t m e n t . F i n a l l y , i n d e r i v i n g " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s f r o m e x p e n d i t u r e s a d j u s t m e n t s mus t be made t o t h e p r i c e t o c o m p e n s a t e f o r n e i g h b o u r h o o d a t t r i b u t e s . T h i s a d j u s t m e n t i s made, i n t e r m s o f t h e r a t i o o f " r e s i d e n t i a l " s e r v i c e s t o " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s . To d e r i v e a n i n f l a t i o n i n d e x ( p r i c e p e r u n i t ) f o r a c t u a l e x p e n d i t u r e s ( " r e s i d e n t i a l " h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s ) a r a t i o o f mean m o n t h l y e x p e n d i t u r e i n 1971 o v e r 1961 was c a l c u l a t e d on a h o u s e h o l d T Y P E b a s i s . T h e o n l y s o u r c e o f s u c h d a t a i s t h e 1974 S u r v e y o f H o u s i n g U n i t s , w h i c h e n a b l e d t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f mean e x p e n d i t u r e s f o r e a c h o f t h e t e n T Y P E g r o u p s a s o f 1 9 7 1 . The 1961 d a t a a v a i l a b l e c o n s i s t s o f a g g r e g a t e d r e n t s o n l y a n d v a l u e s i n c o r p o r a t e d i n t h e 1961 C e n s u s . The a p p r o a c h t h u s t a k e n f o l l o w s t h a t o u t l i n e d i n S e c t i o n A 2 . 2 1 , w h e r e i n t h e p r i c e p e r r e n t a l u n i t o f " r e s i d e n t i a l " s e r v i c e was s i m p l y c a l c u l a t e d a s t h e r a t i o o f t h e r e n t s ; t h e o w n e r - o c c u p i e r p r i c e a s t h e r a t i o o f u s e r c o s t s b a s e d on m a r k e t v a l u e s , c u r r e n t m o r t g a g e r a t e s a n d e s t i m a t e d o p e r a t i n g c o s t s . The r e s u l t i n g p r i c e s a c r o s s t h e e i g h t C . M . A . s a r e : 347 HOUSEHOLD T Y P E 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 C a l g a r y 1 . . 6 5 1 . 6 5 1 , . 6 5 1 . 6 5 1 , . 6 5 1 , .81 1 , . 8 5 1 , . 87 1 , . 8 6 1 . 8 9 K i t c h e n e r 1 . 6 7 1 . 6 7 1 , . 6 7 1 . 6 7 1 , . 6 7 2, . 28 2, . 34 2, . 3 5 2, . 3 9 2 . 3 8 Q u e b e c C i t y S t . J o h n ' s 1 . 5 4 1 . 5 4 1 . 5 4 1 . 5 4 1 . 5 4 1 , . 5 6 1 , . 5 7 1 , .61 1 , . 64 1 . 6 2 1 . 2 9 1 . 2 9 1 . 2 9 1 . 2 9 1 . 2 9 1 , . 68 1 , .71 1 . . 6 9 1 , . 7 3 1 . 7 0 S a s k a t o o n 1 . 2 2 1 . 2 2 1 . 2 2 1 . 2 2 1 . 2 2 1 , . 5 6 1 .61 1 , . 6 3 1 , . 6 6 1 . 6 5 S u d b u r y 1 . 5 6 1 . 5 6 1 . 5 6 1 . 5 6 1 . 5 6 1 , . 8 7 1 . 8 8 1 . 9 0 1 , . 9 2 1 . 9 3 V a n c o u v e r 1 . 5 8 1 . 5 8 1 . 5 8 1 . 5 8 1 . 5 8 2 . 3 5 2 . 3 9 2 .41 2, . 1 3 2 . 4 3 W i n n i p e g 1 . 4 3 1 . 4 3 1 . 4 3 1 . 4 3 1 . 4 3 1 , .61 1 . 6 5 1 . 6 5 1 .71 1 . 6 7 T a b l e A 2 : 0 6 P r i c e p e r U n i t o f " R e s i d e n t i a l " S e r v i c e T h e s e p r i c e s a r e t a k e n a s i n p u t t o t h e p r o g r a m a n d a r e a d j u s t e d f o r e a c h i n d i v i d u a l h o u s e h o l d t o r e f l e c t n e i g h b o u r h o o d c o n d i t i o n s : t h i s p r o c e d u r e u t i l i z e s t h e H e d o n i c e q u a t i o n s . W i t h e a c h o f t h e two e q u a t i o n s , s i x v a r i a b l e s w e r e d e s i g n a t e d a s r e p r e s e n t i n g n e i g h b o u r h o o d a t t r i b u t e s : T Y P E , L G D I S T , O P E N S P , H I G H D E N , COMMERC a n d N E I G H B H D . A h o u s e h o l d ' s " O R H S " (own r e l a t i v e " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s ) a n d t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g " R H S " ( r e l a t i v e " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s ) a r e c a l c u l a t e d r e s p e c t i v e l y , by s u b s t i t u t i n g t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s own n e i g h b o u r h o o d v a r i a b l e v a l u e s a n d a l t e r n a t i v e l y t h e C M . A . w i d e a v e r a g e n e i g h b o u r h o o d v a l u e s i n a d d i t i o n t o t h e r e l e v a n t s t r u c t u r a l v a r i a b l e v a l u e s , i n t o t h e a p p r o p r i a t e H e d o n i c e q u a t i o n . I f t h e c a l c u l a t e d v a l u e f o r ORHS i s g r e a t e r t h a n t h e RHS v a l u e , t h e h o u s e h o l d i s l o c a t e d i n a n a b o v e - a v e r a g e n e i g h b o u r h o o d a n d t h u s p a y s a n a b o v e - a v e r a g e p r i c e p e r u n i t o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e ; t h e c o n v e r s e a l s o h o l d s t r u e . F o r e a c h h o u s e h o l d , t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g h o u s e h o l d T Y P E i n p u t p r i c e p e r u n i t o f " r e s i d e n t i a l " s e r v i c e i s m u l t i p l i e d by t h e r a t i o o f ORHS t o RHS i n d e r i v i n g t h e p r i c e p e r u n i t o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e . T h e c a l c u l a t e d t o t a l e x p e n d i t u r e ( a f t e r t a x i n c o m e ) , h o u s i n g 348 e x p e n d i t u r e , p r i c e p e r u n i t o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e a n d t h e p r i c e p e r u n i t o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s a r e t h e n w r i t t e n t o f i l e . A 2 . 3 2 E s t i m a t i n g t h e E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e F u n c t i o n The e x p e n d i t u r e s h a r e f u n c t i o n s , u n d e r a d i r e c t t r a n s l o g u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n , w e r e e s t i m a t e d u t i l i z i n g t h e n o n - l i n e a r o p t i o n o f U . B . C . : * S H A Z A M ( V e r s i o n 3 . 0 ) . T h i s s o f t w a r e p a c k a g e u s e s a n a l g o r i t h m b a s e d on t h e Q u a s i - N e w t o n m e t h o d . B e c a u s e o f t h e v o l u m e o f e q u a t i o n s t o be e s t i m a t e d , t h e s e n s i t i v i t y o f s o l u t i o n s t o i n i t i a l c o n d i t i o n s was t e s t e d on one C M . A . o n l y . F r o m t h e s e t e s t s t h e f o l l o w i n g s e t o f i n i t i a l p a r a m e t e r v a l u e s ( A 1 = 0 . 5 , B 1 1 = - 0 . 1 , B 1 2 = 0 . 1 , B M 1 = 0 . 1 , B M 2 = - 0 . 1 ) was s e l e c t e d f o r u s e i n e s t i m a t i n g t h e f u n c t i o n s f o r a l l e i g h t C . M . A . s . E q u a t i o n s f o r a t o t a l o f s e v e n s e p a r a t e g r o u p i n g s o f h o u s e h o l d s w e r e e s t i m a t e d f o r e a c h C M . A . One s e t s i m p l y i n v o l v e d d i f f e r e n t i a t i n g e a c h C M . A . by h o u s e h o l d T Y P E . The s e c o n d s e t i n v o l v e d two e q u a t i o n s f o r e a c h h o u s e h o l d T Y P E ; one g r o u p f o r t h e a b o v e - m e a n i n c o m e , one f o r t h e b e l o w - m e a n w h i l e t h e t h i r d s e t i n v o l v e d d i f f e r e n t i a t i n g e a c h T Y P E g r o u p i n t o i n c o m e q u a r t i l e s t o p r o v i d e f o u r i n d e p e n d e n t s e t s o f e s t i m a t e s s u b s e q u e n t l y u t i l i z e d i n t h e s i m u l a t i o n m o d e l . The * S H A Z A M c o n t r o l c a r d s f o r t h e s e e s t i m a t e s a r e g e n e r a t e d by t h e p r o g r a m WORK4 u t i l i z i n g d a t a f r o m C M A . R E G 0 3 t o d e r i v e t h e i n t e r v a l c o n s t r a i n t s a n d t h e mean v a l u e s f o r n o r m a l i s i n g t h e v a r i a b l e s . O u t p u t f r o m t h e r e g r e s s i o n p a c k a g e i s h e l d on f i l e t o be s c a n n e d by t h e p r o g r a m WORK7 w h i c h t r a n s f e r s t h e d e r i v e d c o e f f i c i e n t s , " T " s t a t i s t i c s a n d l o g l i k e l i h o o d v a l u e s t o t h e f i l e C M A . T . D A T A . The n e c e s s a r y c o n t r o l c a r d s f o r t h e c o n s t r a i n e d 349 e s t i m a t e s a r e c r e a t e d a n d t h e r e s u l t s p r o c e s s e d i n a s i m i l i a r m a n n e r . C o m p l e t e r e s u l t s f r o m t h e r e g r e s s i o n s , on a C M . A . b a s i s a r e p r e s e n t e d i n A P P E N D I X T a b l e s A 3 : 1 6 t h r o u g h A 3 : 2 2 . T h e s e t a b l e s a r e d e r i v e d f r o m t h e d a t a s t o r e d on f i l e C M A . T . D A T A by t h e p r o g r a m WORK2. T h i s p r o g r a m i s a l s o u s e d t o g e n e r a t e t h e i n p u t d a t a s e t f o r t h e e l a s t i c i t y c a l c u l a t i o n s a n d d a t a f o r t h e s i m u l a t i o n p r o g r a m . The e l a s t i c i t i e s a r e c a l c u l a t e d u s i n g t h e p r o g r a m " E L A S T . F O R T " w i t h t h e u n i t y i n c o m e t e s t s t a t i s t i c s b e i n g g e n e r a t e d by t h e p r o g r a m " W O R K 0 5 . F O R T " ; t h e p r o g r a m s g e n e r a t i n g T a b l e s A 3 : 2 3 a n d A 3 : 2 4 r e s p e c t i v e l y . 350 A 2 . 4 M O D I F I E D m o d e l : S u p p l y S y s t e m E s t i m a t i o n I n a n a t t e m p t t o d e r i v e a s u p p l y s y s t e m f o r t h e M O D I F I E D m o d e l f o r w h i c h t h e p a r a m e t e r s c o u l d be e s t i m a t e d d i r e c t l y i n p r e f e r e n c e t o b e i n g d e r i v e d v i a t h e c a l i b r a t i o n t e c h n i q u e u s e d i n t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l , t w o a l t e r n a t i v e t h e o r e t i c a l f o r m u l a t i o n s h a v e b e e n t e s t e d e m p i r i c a l l y u s i n g a v a i l a b l e d a t a . T h e s e two a l t e r n a t i v e f o r m u l a t i o n s a r e d e t a i l e d i n S e c t i o n 5 . 1 1 a n d f o l l o w t h e a p p r o a c h u t i l i z e d f o r t h e demand s y s t e m b e i n g b a s e d on t r a n s l o g r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s . T h e f i r s t f o r m u l a t i o n i s b a s e d on t h e d e r i v a t i o n o f a h o u s e h o l d ' s p r o f i t s h a r e f u n c t i o n r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e " p r o f i t " a n o w n e r - o c c u p i e r d e r i v e s f r o m t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s . The s e c o n d i s a c o s t s h a r e f u n c t i o n r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e " c o s t " o f s u c h p r o d u c t i o n . The a t t e m p t e d e s t i m a t e s a r e b a s e d on t h e d a t a a v a i l a b l e i n t h e S u r v e y o f H o u s i n g U n i t s (SHU) d a t a , w i t h a s i n g l e d a t a s e t c r e a t e d f o r i n p u t f o r t h e e s t i m a t i o n p r o c e d u r e s . The c r e a t i o n o f t h i s d a t a s e t i s d e t a i l e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g S e c t i o n w i t h t h e t w o s u b s e q u e n t s e c t i o n s r e p o r t i n g t h e e s t i m a t e d p a r a m e t e r s . A 2 . 4 1 P r e p a r a t i o n f o r E s t i m a t i o n o f t h e S u p p l y F u n c t i o n s T h i s p r o c e d u r e f o l l o w s t h a t r e p o r t e d i n S e c t i o n A 2 . 3 1 f o r t h e p r e p a r a t i o n o f t h e d a t a f o r t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e o c c u p a n t ' s e x p e n d i t u r e s h a r e f u n c t i o n s . The d a t a p r e p a r a t i o n i n v o l v e s a s e c o n d p a s s t h r o u g h t h e p r o g r a m " W O R K 0 0 . F O R T " . The r e q u i r e d v a r i a b l e s f o r t h e e s t i m a t e s i n c l u d e t h e h o u s e h o l d T Y P E , t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s e x p e n d i t u r e on h o u s i n g , t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s w o r t h , a n d a l t e r n a t i v e l y t h e p r o f i t a n d c o s t a n d p r i c e p e r u n i t o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e . 351 F i r s t l y , w h i l e t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l ' s s u p p l y s y s t e m f o r m u l a t i o n a s s u m e s t h a t a l l d w e l l i n g s a r e c o n t r o l l e d by l a n d l o r d s w i t h o w n e r -o c c u p i e r s r e n t i n g t o t h e m s e l v e s , t h e s e f o r m u l a t i o n s a s s u m e t h a t t h e o c c u p a n t c o n t r o l s t h e d w e l l i n g a n d a r e r e s p o n s i b l e f o r t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s . A s s u c h , t h e s e f o r m u l a t i o n s a r e a p p l i c a b l e o n l y t o o w n e r - o c c u p i e r s . The e x p e n d i t u r e on h o u s i n g i s a s f o r t h e demand e s t i m a t e s ( s e e S e c t i o n A 2 . 3 1 ) w i t h a m o n t h l y e x p e n d i t u r e t a k e n t o i n c l u d e i n t e r e s t p a y m e n t s , u t i l i t i e s , r e p a i r s , m a i n t e n a n c e a n d t h e o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t o f e q u i t y . The SHU d a t a s e t h a s no d a t a on h o u s e h o l d a s s e t s , c o n s e q u e n t l y a l t e r n a t i v e p r o x i e s f o r t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s w e a l t h h a v e b e e n u s e d f o r t h e t w o f u n c t i o n s . F o r t h e p r o f i t s h a r e e s t i m a t e s t h e " w e a l t h " i s b a s e d on t h e q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s t h e h o u s e h o l d c o n t r o l s . T h i s i s an h e d o n i c a l l y d e r i v e d q u a n t i t y o b t a i n e d v i a s u b s t i t u t i o n o f mean n e i g h b o u r h o o d a t t r i b u t e s . F o r t h e c o s t s h a r e e s t i m a t e s t h e w e a l t h p r o x y h a s b e e n c o n s t r u c t e d c o n s i d e r i n g b o t h t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s h o u s i n g w e a l t h a n d i t s human w e a l t h . The v a l u e i s c o n s t r u c t e d by c a l c u l a t i n g t h e p r e s e n t v a l u e a t 10% p e r annum o f t h e " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s s t r e a m t h r o u g h u n t i l t h e h e a d ' s a g e r e a c h e s s e v e n t y - t h r e e ; t h e i n c o m e s t r e a m u n t i l a n a g e o f s i x t y - f i v e . ( F u l l d e t a i l s a r e a v a i l a b l e f r o m t h e p r o g r a m " W O R K 0 0 . F O R T " . ) The h o u s e h o l d ' s p r o f i t i s t a k e n a s t h a t d e r i v e d f r o m t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f b o t h human a n d " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s . I t i s c a l c u l a t e d a s t h e m o n t h l y a f t e r t a x i n c o m e p l u s a m o n t h l y " r e t u r n o n " t h e " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s c o n t r o l l e d m i n u s a c t u a l m o n t h l y c a s h e x p e n s e s . The m o n t h l y " r e t u r n o n " i s b a s e d on 0 . 1 4 7 1 % o f t h e d w e l l i n g ' s v a l u e . 352 T h e h o u s e h o l d ' s c o s t i s t a k e n a s t h e m o n t h l y i n c o m e o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t p l u s t h e c o s t o f c o n t r o l l i n g t h e " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s . The u t i l i z e d p r i c e p e r u n i t o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e i s a s d e t a i l e d i n S e c t i o n A 2 . 3 1 . The c a l c u l a t e d e x p e n d i t u r e on h o u s i n g , t h e a l t e r n a t i v e w e a l t h p a r a m e t e r s , t h e p r o f i t a n d c o s t a n d t h e p r i c e p e r u n i t o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e a r e w r i t t e n t o t h e f i l e C M A . R E G 0 4 . A 2 . 4 2 E s t i m a t i n g t h e P r o f i t S h a r e F u n c t i o n The p r o f i t s h a r e t r a n s l o g f u n c t i o n s w e r e e s t i m a t e d u t i l i z i n g t h e OLS o p t i o n o f U . B . C : * S H A Z A M ( V e r s i o n 3 . 0 ) . The * S H A Z A M c o n t o l c a r d s f o r t h e s e e s t i m a t e s a r e g e n e r a t e d by t h e p r o g r a m " W O R K 0 6 . F O R T " , w h i c h u s e s d a t a d e r i v e d f r o m C M A . R E G 0 4 t o d e r i v e t h e n e c e s s a r y i n t e r v a l c o n s t r a i n t s a n d t h e mean v a l u e s f o r n o r m a l i z i n g t h e v a r i a b l e s . T h r e e d i f f e r e n t s c e n a r i o s a r e c o n s i d e r e d . The f i r s t i s b a s e d on a l l t h e o w n e r - o c c u p i e r s ; t h e o t h e r t w o r e p r e s e n t i n g h o u s e h o l d s w i t h a l t e r n a t i v e l y w e a l t h b e l o w o r a b o v e t h e m e a n . The e s t i m a t e d p a r a m e t e r s f o r t h e s e l e c t e d e i g h t CMAs a r e d e t a i l e d f o l l o w i n g i n T a b l e A 2 : 0 7 . 353 C A L G A R Y a l l b e l o w a b o v e K I T C H E N E R a l l b e l o w a b o v e QUEBEC C I T Y a l l b e l o w a b o v e S T . J O H N ' S a l l b e l o w a b o v e I N T E R C E P T L G P R I C E L G C A P R2 0 . 2 5 2 2 ( 8 3 . 8 ) 0 . 2 5 2 1 ( 5 8 . 5 ) 0 . 2 5 1 5 ( 6 2 . 7 ) 0 . 8 8 4 7 ( 1 0 . 5 ) • 0 . 9 7 2 8 ( 8 . 9 5 ) 0 . 6 7 2 8 ( 4 . 8 7 ) 0 . 0 1 8 5 (1 . 6 6 ) 0 . 0 1 8 8 ( 0 . 7 5 ) 0 . 0 3 4 2 ( 1 . 3 6 ) 0 . 0 7 0 . 0 9 0 . 0 4 0 . 2 6 1 5 ( 8 8 . 2 ) 0 . 2 6 8 2 ( 6 0 . 1 ) 0 . 2 5 3 9 (71 . 0 ) 0 . 8 3 3 7 ( 1 0 . 2 ) • 0 . 9 7 9 1 ( 8 . 6 4 ) • 0 . 5 2 5 1 ( 4 . 6 4 ) 0 . 0 1 7 4 ( 1 . 5 0 ) 0 . 0 9 4 9 ( 3 . 7 3 ) 0 . 0 1 9 2 ( 0 . 8 3 ) 0 . 0 7 0 . 1 0 0 . 0 3 0 . 2 5 7 8 0 . 0 7 3 2 - 0 . 0 1 4 0 0 . 0 1 ( 6 1 . 5 ) ( 2 . 3 7 ) ( 1 . 0 5 ) 0 . 2 5 5 5 0 . 0 6 5 4 - 0 . 0 9 3 6 0 . 0 2 ( 4 5 . 2 ) ( 1 . 6 3 ) ( 3 . 1 1 ) 0 . 2 6 1 3 0 .101.8 0 . 0 1 9 5 0 . 0 1 ( 4 3 . 5 ) ( 2 . 1 1 ) ( 0 . 6 6 ) 0 . 2 9 9 1 ( 7 7 . 0 ) 0 . 3 1 3 1 ( 5 6 . 2 ) 0 . 2 8 4 0 ( 5 7 . 2 ) 0 . 1 8 2 2 ( 4 . 3 2 ) 0 . 1722 ( 2 . 8 5 ) 0 . 1 8 1 2 ( 3 . 2 9 ) - 0 . 0 6 4 3 ( 5 . 1 3 ) - 0 . 1 0 1 1 ( - 3 . 7 1 ) - 0 . 0 0 0 3 ( 0 . 0 1 ) 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 3 0 . 0 2 T a b l e A 2 : 0 7 S u p p l y P r o f i t S h a r e F u n c t i o n E s t i m a t e s 354 INTERCEPT LGPRICE LGCAP R2 SASKATOON a l l below above SUDBURY a l l below above VANCOUVER a l l below above WINNIPEG a l l below above 0.2376 (88.7) 0.2436 (63.9) 0.2312 (65.3) 0.2885 (70.9) 0.3014 (50.8) 0.2757 (54.3) 0.2808 (92.4) 0.2816 (64.7) 0.2799 (68.3) 0.2822 (68.2) 0.2972 (47.7) 0.2683 (53.5) •0.1719 (3.82) •0.2400 (3.72) -0.0741 (1 .24) 0. 1243 (3.14) 0. 1268 (2.36) 0. 1 185 (2.10) 0.0513 (1.80) 0.0827 (2.15) 0.0050 (0.12) 0.1054 (1 .24) 0.0493 (0.40) 0.3234 (2.97) 0.0290 (3.01) -0.0603 (2.78) 0.0259 1 .20) 0.0773 (5.05) 0.1677 (4.86) 0.0538 (1.69) 0.0023 (0.19) 0.0408 (1.44) •0.0542 (1.96) 0.0591 (4.20J 0.0800 (2.56) 0.0214 (0.71) 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.02 0.04 0.02 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.02 Table A2:07(cont) Supply P r o f i t Share Function Estimates 355 A 2 . 4 3 E s t i m a t i n g t h e C o s t S h a r e F u n c t i o n The m e t h o d u s e d t o e s t i m a t e t h e c o s t s h a r e f u n c t i o n i s i d e n t i c a l t o t h a t f o r t h e P r o f i t S h a r e f u n c t i o n w i t h t h e * S H A Z A M c o n t r o l c a r d s g e n e r a t e d by t h e p r o g r a m " W O R K 0 6 . F O R T " . A g a i n t h r e e a l t e r n a t i v e s c e n a r i o s a r e c o n s i d e r e d r e p r e s e n t i n g t h e same d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n u t i l i z e d f o r t h e P r o f i t S h a r e e s t i m a t e s . The e s t i m a t e d p a r a m e t e r s f o r t h e s e l e c t e d e i g h t CMAs a r e d e t a i l e d f o l l o w i n g i n T a b l e A 2 : 0 8 . 356 I N T E R C E P T L G P R I C E L G C A P R2 C A L G A R Y a l l b e l o w a b o v e K I T C H E N E R a l l b e l o w a b o v e QUEBEC C I T Y b e l o w a b o v e S T . J O H N ' S a l l b e l o w a b o v e 0 . 2 0 7 0 ( 1 0 6 . ) 0 . 2 4 3 7 ( 6 5 . 8 ) 0 . 1 9 0 3 ( 1 0 1 . ) 0 . 2 0 9 7 ( 1 1 5 . ) 0 . 2 4 8 4 ( 6 5 . 7 ) 0 . 1 9 6 3 ( 1 2 0 . ) 0 . 1930 ( 8 4 . 4 ) 0 . 2 2 0 5 ( 5 4 . 4 ) 0 . 1 8 0 1 ( 8 1 . 5 ) 0 . 2 3 1 4 ( 1 0 6 . ) 0 . 2 6 5 6 ( 7 4 . 8 ) 0 . 2 1 0 0 ( 8 7 . 1) 0 . 0 1 1 3 ( 0 . 2 0 ) • 0 . 1 0 1 1 ( 1 . 1 5 ) 0 . 1936 ( 2 . 7 2 ) 0 . 2 1 0 4 ( 3 . 8 7 ) 0 . 1 5 6 3 ( 1 . 7 7 ) 0 . 2 8 7 7 ( 4 . 4 6 ) 0 . 1 4 9 9 ( 9 . 0 2 ) 0 . 1 6 6 6 ( 6 . 7 4 ) 0 . 1 4 5 5 ( 6 . 8 7 ) 0 . 1 5 0 0 ( 6 . 5 6 ) 0 . 1 4 5 1 ( 3 . 8 8 ) 0 . 1 4 6 4 ( 5 . 6 9 ) 0 . 0 2 6 1 ( 1 7 . 1 ) •0 .01 66 ( 6 . 5 7 ) • 0 . 0 3 6 2 ( 4 . 3 9 ) • 0 . 0 3 3 0 ( 2 3 . 2 ) • 0 . 0 2 6 6 ( 1 0 . 1 ) 0 . 5 6 3 6 ( 8 . 1 2 ) • 0 . 0 2 1 4 ( 1 2 . 7 ) • 0 . 0 1 2 1 ( 4 . 4 4 ) • 0 . 0 3 6 5 ( 4 . 3 0 ) 0 . 0 2 5 6 ( 1 4 . 7 ) • 0 . 0 1 4 1 ( 5 . 3 4 ) • 0 . 0 3 6 9 ( 3 . 9 5 ) 0 . 2 1 0 . 0 9 0 . 0 3 0 . 3 1 0 . 1 6 0 . 0 9 0 . 1 4 0 . 0 9 0 . 1 0 0 . 1 6 0 . 0 6 0 . 0 6 T a b l e A 2 : 0 8 S u p p l y C o s t S h a r e F u n c t i o n E s t i m a t e s 357 SASKATOON a l l b e l o w a b o v e SUDBURY a l l b e l o w a b o v e VANCOUVER a l l b e l o w a b o v e W I N N I P E G a l l b e l o w a b o v e I N T E R C E P T 0 . 1 9 4 2 ( 1 1 4 . ) 0 . 2 3 2 2 ( 7 4 . 1 ) 0 . 1 7 8 4 ( 1 0 4 . ) L G P R I C E 0 . 1 6 9 8 ( 5 . 7 6 ) 0 . 1 7 9 9 ( 4 . 0 6 ) 0 . 1 2 1 8 ( 3 . 3 1 ) L G C A P - 0 . 0 2 4 3 ( 1 8 . 5 ) - 0 . 0 1 6 4 ( 8 . 0 1 ) - 0 . 0 5 2 2 ( 7 . 2 5 ) R2 0 . 1 7 0 . 0 8 0 . 0 7 0 . 2 1 0 4 ( 9 9 . 3 ) 0 . 2 4 0 4 ( 6 3 . 7 ) 0 . 1 9 5 5 ( 9 1 . 6 ) 0 . 1 3 3 6 ( 6 . 8 4 ) 0 . 1 3 9 0 ( 4 . 6 1 ) 0 . 1 4 9 0 ( 6 . 3 0 ) • 0 . 0 2 3 7 ( 1 5 . 6 ) •0 .01 53 ( 6 . 1 5 ) • 0 . 0 5 0 5 ( 6 . 2 2 ) 0 . 1 7 0 . 0 8 0 . 1 0 0 . 2 4 2 7 ( 1 1 0 . ) 0 . 2 7 7 2 ( 7 3 . 6 ) 0 . 2 2 5 1 ( 9 6 . 5 ) 0 . 0 9 5 0 ( 4 . 8 6 ) 0 . 1709 ( 6 . 0 1 ) 0 . 0 0 1 6 ( 0 . 0 6 ) • 0 . 0 2 5 4 ( 1 5 . 5 ) •0 .01 55 ( 5 . 8 7 ) • 0 . 0 7 2 7 ( 7 . 5 4 ) 0 . 1 7 0 . 1 0 0 . 0 8 0 . 2 0 9 7 0 . 2 1 2 8 - 0 . 0 2 7 2 0 . 2 4 ( 9 8 . 2 ) ( 5 . 1 4 ) ( 1 8 . 8 ) 0 . 2 4 3 6 0 . 1 9 8 8 - 0 . 0 2 0 7 0 . 1 2 ( 5 9 . 3 ) ( 2 . 7 6 ) ( 8 . 1 0 ) 0 . 1 9 4 4 0 . 2 4 1 6 - 0 . 0 3 9 6 0 . 0 8 ( 9 7 . 3 ) ( 5 . 5 6 ) ( 4 . 7 0 ) T a b l e A 2 : 0 8 ( c o n t ) S u p p l y C o s t S h a r e F u n c t i o n E s t i m a t e s 358 A 2 . 5 M O D I F I E D m o d e l : " M o d e l " H o u s e h o l d s a n d D w e l l i n g s The a p p r o a c h t a k e n i n d e r i v i n g t h e m o d e l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s f o l l o w s t h a t f o r t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l e x c e p t t h a t s i g n i f i c a n t c h a n g e s h a v e b e e n r e q u i r e d t o i n c o r p o r a t e t h e a f t e r t a x i n c o m e s o f t h e h o u s e h o l d s a n d t h e u s e o f a c t u a l u s e r c o s t s , n o t " r e n t e q u i v a l e n c e " i n t h e d e r i v a t i o n o f t h e o w n e r - o c c u p i e d " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s . I n d e r i v i n g t h e 1971 r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s t h e number o f r e n t a l h o u s e h o l d s a n d d w e l l i n g s h a v e t o be m a t c h e d : t h e a c t u a l s p l i t b e t w e e n t h e t e n u r e s i s b a s e d on t h e 1971 C e n s u s d a t a . The 1961 t e n u r e s p l i t f o r t h e m o d e l d w e l l i n g s i s b a s e d on t h e 1961 C e n s u s d a t a . I n d e r i v i n g t h e 1961 a n d 1971 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s u s e i s made o f t h e 1961 a n d 1971 h e d o n i c c o e f f i c i e n t s e s t i m a t e d f o r t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l . T h e s e r e g r e s s i o n s t u d i e s a r e r e p o r t e d i n S e c t i o n s A 1 . 3 1 1 a n d A 1 . 3 1 2 r e s p e c t i v e l y . A 2 . 5 1 T e n u r e d " M o d e l " H o u s e h o l d s : " H H 2 . F 0 R T " I n a m a n n e r s i m i l i a r t o t h a t o u t l i n e d i n S e c t i o n A 1 . 4 3 t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s f o r e a c h o f t h e t e n T Y P E s a r e d e r i v e d f r o m t h e 1974 S u r v e y o f H o u s i n g U n i t s d a t a . F o r e a c h C M . A . a t o t a l o f 100 " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s a r e f o r m e d e a c h b e i n g r e p r e s e n t e d b y t h e a c t u a l 1971 a f t e r t a x i n c o m e , t a x e s a n d T Y P E g r o u p . I n a d d i t i o n f o r e a c h o w n e r - o c c u p i e r t h e i r p e r c e n t e q u i t y h o l d i n g i n t h e i r a c t u a l d w e l l i n g s i s i n c l u d e d . E a c h o f t h e s e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s i s d e r i v e d f r o m s e p a r a t e d i s t r i b u t i o n s o f t h e a c t u a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s by d i v i d i n g t h e c o n t i n u u m s by t h e r a t i o o f a c t u a l t o " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s . A s w i t h t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l e a c h " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d i s g r o u p e d r e g a r d l e s s o f i t s l o c a t i o n i n t h e C M . A . 359 The r e q u i r e d a f t e r t a x i n c o m e ( a n d t a x e s ) a n d t h e e q u i t y h o l d i n g a r e n o t d i r e c t l y a v a i l a b l e on t h e SHU d a t a s e t s . T h i s h a s r e q u i r e d t h e i r c a l c u l a t i o n f r o m r e p o r t e d h o u s e h o l d a n d h o u s e h o l d members g r o s s i n c o m e s w i t h d e d u c t i o n s b a s e d on t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . The m e t h o d by w h i c h t a x e s a r e c a l c u l a t e d f o l l o w s t h a t d e t a i l e d i n A P P E N D I X A 2 . 3 1 . I n c a l c u l a t i n g t h e a f t e r t a x i n c o m e i t i s a s s u m e d t h a t f o r o w n e r - o c c u p i e r s a t a x f r e e r e t u r n on t h e i r e q u i t y h o l d i n g i s i n c l u d e d a s a f t e r t a x i n c o m e . B a s e d on t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e c u r r e n t m o r t g a g e r a t e a p p l i c a b l e t o t h e i r p r o p e r t y r e p r e s e n t s t h e i r m a r g i n a l o p p o r t u n i t y r e t u r n t h i s a d d i t i o n a l i n c o m e i s c a l c u l a t e d a s t h e o w n e r ' s e q u i t y t i m e s t h e m a r g i n a l o p p o r t u n i t y r a t e o f r e t u r n . The o u t p u t d a t a r e c o r d f o r e a c h h o u s e h o l d i n c l u d e s d a t a on t h e a f t e r t a x i n c o m e , t h e T Y P E g r o u p , t h e t a x a b l e i n c o m e a n d t a x e s p a i d . The c o n t r o l c a r d s r e q u i r e d a n d t h e o p e r a t i o n o f t h e p r o g r a m f o l l o w s " H H 1 . F O R T " , t h e p r o g r a m u s e d f o r g e n e r a t i n g t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s f o r t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l . A 2 . 5 2 T e n u r e d " M o d e l " D w e l l i n g s : " D 7 1 . F O R T " The c o m p l e t e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e M O D I F I E D m o d e l r e q u i r e s t h e c r e a t i o n o f t w o s e t s o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s ; a 1971 s e t t o be e m p l o y e d f o r c a l i b r a t i n g f o r n e i g h b o u r h o o d e x t e r n a l i t i e s a n d a 1961 s e t f o r u s e i n " b a s e " c a l i b r a t i o n s a n d " p o l i c y " s i m u l a t i o n s . The m e t h o d s u s e d f o l l o w t h o s e d e s c r i b e d f o r t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l ' s " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s , w i t h t h e e x c e p t i o n t h a t d w e l l i n g s w i t h i n a g e o g r a p h i c a l z o n e a r e s e p a r a t e d i n t o e i t h e r a r e n t a l o r o w n e r -o c c u p i e r s u b - z o n e . T h a t i s , i n p l a c e o f f i v e z o n e s , t e n e f f e c t i v e 360 zones are c r e a t e d . With the ORIGINAL model, the technique used i n a d j u s t i n g owner-occupied d w e l l i n g values to a rent equivalence i s based on the assumption that average r e n t a l and owner-ocupier d w e l l i n g s w i t h i n a census t r a c t p rovide e q u i v a l e n t q u a n t i t y of " r e s i d e n t i a l " s e r v i c e s . For the MODIFIED model the "user" c o s t s c a l c u l a t e d f o r e s t i m a t i n g the demand and supply f u n c t i o n are d e r i v e d independent of such a c o n s t r a i n t , r e s u l t i n g i n the average user c o s t f o r owners being g r e a t l y i n excess of average r e n t s . Thus i n d e r i v i n g the "model" d w e l l i n g the q u a n t i t i e s must r e f l e c t the r e l a t i o n s h i p between a c t u a l user c o s t s and v a l u e , not the c o r r e s p o n d i n g rent and v a l u e . Since the "model" d w e l l i n g r e p r e s e n t a t i o n s are d e r i v e d from Census data which does not i n c l u d e data on user c o s t s a r e l a t i o n s h i p between user c o s t and value was estimated using the f u n c t i o n a l r e l a t i o n s h i p EXPEND = A1 + B1 * LOG(VALUE) VALUE with the e x p e c t a t i o n that the r a t i o w i l l d e c l i n e with an i n c r e a s i n g v a l u e . By n o r m a l i s i n g the independent v a r i a b l e VALUE by d i v i d i n g by the mean, the I n t e r c e p t w i l l correspond to the mean value f o r the expenditure to value r a t i o given that the l o g a r i t h m of one i s z e r o . The only a v a i l a b l e data from which t h i s f u n c t i o n can be estimated i s the 1974 SHU d a t a s e t . A c c o r d i n g l y a dataset CMA.REG05 i s c r e a t e d by the program "WORK00.FORT" which i n v o l v e s only owner-o c c u p i e r data p o i n t s . The necessary *SHAZAM c o n t r o l cards r e q u i r e d f o r e s t i m a t i n g the f u n c t i o n are c r e a t e d by the program "WORK04.FORT" and i n c l u d e s the necessary parameters f o r 361 n o r m a l i s a t i o n . The e s t i m a t e d p a r a m e t e r s a r e u s e d a s a n a d d i t i o n a l i n p u t d a t a r e c o r d t o " D 7 1 . F 0 R T " . To d e r i v e t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f m o n t h l y " u s e r c o s t s " f r o m t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g v a l u e s s i m p l y i n v o l v e s t h e s u b s t i t u t i o n o f t h e r e s p e c t i v e v a l u e r a n g e p a r a m e t e r s i n t o t h e e s t i m a t e d e q u a t i o n t o d e r i v e a n i n t e r v a l i n t e r m s o f t h e " u s e r c o s t " . I n d e f l a t i n g t h e r e s u l t i n g d e c a d e - e n d q u a n t i t i e s o f " r e l a t i v e h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s (1971 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s ) , e x p r e s s e d i n t e r m s o f a 1971 p r i c e p e r u n i t o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e o f 1 . 0 0 , t o e q u i v a l e n t 1961 q u a n t i t i e s , t h e r e l a t i v e z o n a l p r i c e i n d i c i e s mus t a d j u s t n o t o n l y f o r t h e z o n a l d i f f e r e n c e s b u t a l s o f o r t h e d i f f e r e n c e i n p r i c e i n f l a t i o n f o r o w n e r - o c c u p i e d d w e l l i n g s r e l a t i v e t o r e n t a l d w e l l i n g s . B o t h t h e d e r i v e d P N ' s f o r t h e r e n t a l a n d o w n e r - o c c u p i e d a r e t a k e n a s i n p u t t o p r o v i d e n o r m a l i s a t i o n o f t h e h e d o n i c a l l y d e r i v e d p r i c e i n d i c e s . W h i l e c r e a t i n g t h e 1971 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s , " D 7 1 . F O R T " g e n e r a t e s a c a l i b r a t i o n d a t a s e t t o t e s t t h e s o l u t i o n c o n d i t i o n s d u r i n g t h e E X T ' s c a l i b r a t i o n . T h i s d a t a s e t i s a s f o r t h e "GAMMA" c a l i b r a t i o n p r o c e s s e x e c e p t no d a t a on t h e h o u s e h o l d T Y P E d i s t r i b u t i o n i s g e n e r a t e d . I n a d d i t i o n , " D 7 1 . F O R T " i s r e - r u n u n d e r o p t i o n 2 g e n e r a t i n g two new c o n s t r u c t i o n z o n e s ( r e n t a l a n d o w n e r - o c c u p i e d ) t o f i r s t l y o b t a i n t h e Q M ' . s , t h e m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f "new" c o n s t r u c t i o n a n d s e c o n d l y a c a l i b r a t i o n d a t a s e t f o r c a l i b r a t i n g t h e " B E T A " p a r a m e t e r s f o r t h e s u p p l y f u n c t i o n s . 362 A2.53 1961 Tenured "Model" Dwellings :"D61.F0RT" The 1961 "model" d w e l l i n g s are d e r i v e d i n a s i m i l i a r manner, as f o r the ORIGINAL model with changes s i m i l i a r to those a p p l i e d to "D71.F0RT". But l a c k i n g s u i t a b l e data from which to d e r i v e a comparable expenditure to value f u n c t i o n use i s made of the f u n c t i o n estimates from the 1974 SHU data o u t l i n e d i n Table 8:16 and the computed values and user c o s t s d e t a i l e d i n Table A2:42 The average user c o s t s and values are used to a d j u s t the mean r a t i o ( i n t e r c e p t ) of the 1974 estimates with the assumption that the rate of change remains c o n s t a n t . T h i s adjustment i s computed as f o l l o w s f o r the s e l e c t e d C.M.A.s. 1971 R a t i o Expend/VALUE CM.A. Kitch e n e r Quebec Vancouver Winnipeg Calgary St.John's Saskatoon Sudbury 0.1161 0. 1206 0.1401 0.1337 0.1211 0. 1379 0.1219 0.1301 .0072418/.0092918 .0077474/.0097974 .0091205/.0111705 .0089251/.0109751 .0078665/.0099165 .0090089/.0110588 .0081029/.0101529 .0084003/.0104503 0.0905 0.0954 0. 1 1 44 0. 1087 0.0961 0.1123 0.0973 0.1046 Table A2:07 C a l c u l a t i o n of 1961 Expend/VALUE R a t i o . 363 A 2 . 6 M O D I F I E D m o d e l : SOLUTION A L G O R I T H M : " S I M 0 2 . F O R T " T h i s s e c t i o n d e s c r i b e s t h e c o m p u t e r p r o g r a m , " S I M 0 2 . F O R T " , d e v e l o p e d f o r s o l v i n g t h e M O D I F I E D HOUSING MARKET m o d e l ; a m a t h e m a t i c a l f o r m u l a t i o n s o f t h e c h a n g e s o v e r a t e n y e a r p e r i o d i n t h e p r i c e a n d q u a n t i t y o f h o u s i n g i n a n u r b a n a r e a . T h i s m o d e l i n c o r p o r a t e s n o n - l i n e a r demand f u n c t i o n s a n d d i s c o n t i n u o u s s u p p l y f u n c t i o n s l e a d i n g t o a more c o m p l e x s o l u t i o n p r o c e s s . The g e n e r a l a n d c o m p u t a t i o n a l r e q u i r e m e n t s a r e s i m i l i a r t o t h o s e f o r t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l a l t h o u g h t h e n a t u r e o f t h e demand s y s t e m h a s r e q u i r e d t h e i n c o r p o r a t i o n o f a m o r e c o m p l e x s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m . G e n e r a l l y s o l u t i o n t i m e s a r e c o m p a r a b l e t o t h o s e f o r t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l . T h i s c o m p u t e r p r o g r a m h a s b e e n w r i t t e n i n FORTRAN I V G1 u t i l i z i n g o n l y g e n e r a l l i b r a r y f u n c t i o n s , m a k i n g i t s u i t a b l e f o r I B M s y s t e m u s a g e i n b a t c h mode . T h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n s h a v e b e e n o r d e r e d t o c o r r e s p o n d t o p r o g r a m l o g i c ; f r o m i n i t i a l i z a t i o n t h r o u g h d a t a i n p u t t o t h e c a l c u l a t i o n s a n d o u t p u t . The g e n e r a l s t r u c t u r e o f t h e p r o g r a m i s o u t l i n e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g f l o w c h a r t ( F i g u r e A 2 : 0 1 ) . I n t r o d u c t i o n I n i t i a l i z a t i o n a n d I n p u t i n i t i a l i z a t i o n i n p u t a n d o u t p u t o f t h e i n p u t d a t a I n i t i a l c a l c u l a t i o n s P a r a m e t e r i t e r a t i o n l o o p S o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m l o o p C a l i b r a t i o n o r B a s e mode o u t p u t c a l c u l a t e e x o g e n o u s v a r i a b l e s I s e t p a r a m e t e r s i f l o o p i n g c a l c u l a t e f u l l u t i l i t y o r d e r e a c h h o u s e h o l d ' s d w e l l i n g s t a c k a l l o c a t e h o u s e h o l d s among d w e l l i n g s c a l c u l a t e " a c t u a l " e x t e r n a l i t i e s I o u t p u t I t e s t i f " i n i t i a l " a n d " c a l c u l a t e d " e x t e r n a l i t i e s w i t h i n t o l e r a n c e . I o u t p u t " c a l i b r a t i o n " o r " b a s e " i n f o r m a t i o n I c h e c k i f p a r a m e t e r l o o p r e s e t e x t e r n a l i t i e s t o " c a l c u l a t e d " v a l u e s - - no - -y e s s t o p F i g u r e A 2 : 0 1 F l o w C h a r t o f P r o g r a m S t r u c t u r e : " S I M 0 2 . F O R T " 365 A 2 . 6 1 G e n e r a l O u t l i n e . T h i s p r o g r a m c o n s i s t s o f f i v e g e n e r a l " s u b r o u t i n e s " a n d a " c o n t r o l " s e c t i o n w i t h m u l t i p l e e n t r y p o i n t s i n t h e c a l c u l a t i n g a n d o u t p u t " s u b r o u t i n e s " . To e n a b l e t h e r e a d e r t o r e l a t e t o t h e a c t u a l i n p u t a n d o u t p u t o f t h e p r o g r a m t h i s d e s c r i p t i o n i s b a s e d on a n e x a m p l e s i m u l a t i o n . F o r s i m p l i c i t y , t h e e x a m p l e u s e d h a s t h e i n p u t r e s t r i c t e d t o t e n " m o d e l " e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s l o c a t e d i n two " z o n e s " , w i t h t h e t h i r d " z o n e " b e i n g t h a t f o r new c o n s t r u c t i o n . " M o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s h a v e c o r r e s p o n d i n g l y b e e n r e s t r i c t e d t o t e n , w i t h t h e T Y P E o p t i o n r e s t r i c t e d t o t w o ; one r e n t a l a n d one o w n e r -o c c u p i e r . I n n o r m a l u s a g e t h e number o f e x i s t i n g " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s r a n g e s f r o m a p p r o x i m a t e l y 65 t o 1 0 0 , w i t h f i v e t o t e n " z o n e s " . The c o r r e s p o n d i n g number o f " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s w i l l be i n t h e r e g i o n o f 1 0 0 , w i t h t h e t e n " T Y P E " s p e c i f i c a t i o n s t h e s t a n d a r d . The p r o g r a m may be u s e d i n one o f t h r e e modes 1. i n " c a l i b r a t i o n " mode t o e s t i m a t e , v i a s i m u l a t i o n , t h e E X T a n d t h e BETA p a r a m e t e r s , 2 . i n " b a s e " mode t o g e n e r a t e a b a s e c a s e f o r t h e u r b a n a r e a u n d e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n , a n d 3 . i n " p o l i c y " mode w h e r e i n p o l i c y p a r a m e t e r s c a n be e n t e r e d a l l o w i n g t h e s i m u l a t i o n o f t h e a f f e c t s o f a l t e r n a t i v e m a r k e t i n t e r v e n t i o n s . The b a s i c d e s c r i p t i o n i n c o r p o r a t e s t h e f e a t u r e s o f t h e two a l t e r n a t i v e s t a n d a r d " c a l i b r a t i o n " r u n s w i t h t h e e x a m p l e b e i n g f o r a n E X T " c a l i b r a t i o n " r u n . D e t a i l s on t h e a l t e r n a t i v e " b a s e " a n d " p o l i c y " r u n s a r e o u t l i n e d i n t h e s u b s e q u e n t s e c t i o n s : A 2 . 6 8 : " B a s e " Mode a n d A 2 . 6 9 : P o l i c y M o d e . The o n l y s i g n i f i c a n t d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n " c a l i b r a t i o n " mode a n d t h e two a l t e r n a t i v e modes i s t h a t w i t h t h e f o r m e r t h e b e h a v i o u r a l p a r a m e t e r v a l u e s a r e v a r i e d , w i t h s p e c i a l r e s t r i c t i o n s on t h e a l l o c a t i o n a l g o r i t h m . The 366 l a t t e r i n v o l v e s t h e a d d i t i o n a l i n p u t o f p o l i c y p a r a m e t e r s u s i n g a f i x e d s e t o f b e h a v i o u r a l p a r a m e t e r s . A 2 . 6 2 I n i t i a l i z a t i o n a n d I n p u t . The p r o g r a m i n i t i a l i z e s by s e t t i n g a l l s t o r a g e a r r a y e l e m e n t s t o z e r o a n d t h e n i n p u t s t h e r e q u i r e d d a t a . E a c h i n p u t r e c o r d i s i d e n t i f i e d by a f o u r - c h a r a c t e r c o d e , c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e f i r s t f o u r c o l u m n s o f t h e i n p u t r e c o r d , w i t h d a t a b e i n g s p a c e d i n f i v e c o l u m n f i e l d s a c r o s s t h e r e m a i n d e r o f t h e r e c o r d . T h e s t a n d a r d i n p u t f o r m a t f o r a l l i n p u t r e c o r d s i s ( 212 , 1 2 F 5 . 0 ) . T h i s b a s i c i n p u t t o t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m i s c r e a t e d by t h e u t i l i t y p r o g r a m s " H H 2 . F 0 R T " , " D 6 1 . F 0 R T " a n d " C Z O N E . F O R T " , w i t h a d d i t i o n a l i n p u t f r o m t h e i n p u t c o n t r o l d e c k . A d d i t i o n a l d a t a n e c e s s a r y f o r c a l i b r a t i o n i s c r e a t e d by t h e u t i l i t y p r o g r a m " D 7 1 . F 0 R T " I n p u t i s c l a s s i f i e d i n t o n i n e g r o u p s , e a c h g r o u p b e i n g i d e n t i f i e d by t h e number c o d e i n c o l u m n 1: "1 " d a t a f o r " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s "2 " d a t a on e a c h h o u s e h o l d " T Y P E " "3 " d a t a on " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s "4 " d a t a on e a c h " z o n e " "5 " b e h a v i o u r a l p a r a m e t e r s "7 " c a l i b r a t i o n d a t a "8 " p o l i c y d a t a "9 " s y s t e m c o n t r o l p a r a m e t e r s I n t h e f o l l o w i n g s e c t i o n e a c h o f t h e s e g r o u p s i s d e t a i l e d . 367 "1 " " M o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s . E a c h " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d i s l o a d e d w i t h f o u r b a s i c d a t a v a l u e s ; a n n u a l a f t e r t a x i n c o m e , t y p e , t a x a b l e i n c o m e a n d t a x e s . The t h i r d f i e l d i s n o t u t i l i z e d by t h i s V E R S I O N o f t h e p r o g r a m . T h e s e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d d a t a r e c o r d s a r e i d e n t i f i e d w i t h a " 1 " i n c o l u m n 1, w i t h t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d b e i n g i d e n t i f i e d i n c o l u m n s 2 t o 4 by a number n o t e x c e e d i n g 1 2 0 . I n p u t n e e d n o t be i n s e q u e n t i a l o r d e r b u t t h e n u m b e r i n g o f t h e h o u s e h o l d s m u s t be c o n t i n u o u s . F o r a n o u t l i n e o f t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e s e i n p u t d a t a s e e t h e d e s c r i p t i o n o f " H H 2 . F O R T " i n S e c t i o n A 2 . 5 1 . The c o r r e s p o n d i n g d a t a i n p u t f o r t h e e x a m p l e i s a s f o l l o w s , w i t h b l a n k s a s i d e n t i f i e d . 1001 1527 1 - 2 1 7 0 1002 2 2 3 5 1 102 60 1003 3 9 3 8 1 900 191 1004 5616 1 3309 731 1 0 0 5 2 3 8 2 9 1 4 4 9 4 0 2 7 8 4 6 1006 2 2 3 5 2 2814 628 1007 9779 2 6334 1556 1 0 0 8 1 1 2 7 5 2 8173 1983 1 0 0 9 1 3 9 8 6 211724 2991 1 0 1 0 1 6 8 2 7 214648 4236 The f i r s t d a t a f i e l d ( c o l u m n s 5 - 9 ) i s t h e a n n u a l a f t e r t a x i n c o m e f o r t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d . The s e c o n d f i e l d ( c o l u m n s 1 0 - 1 4 ) i s t h e h o u s e h o l d T Y P E g r o u p a n d i n g e n e r a l u s e w i l l t a k e a v a l u e o f 1 t h r o u g h 1 0 . F i e l d t h r e e i s t h e t a x a b l e i n c o m e ( a f t e r a l l d e d u c t i o n s ) a n d f i e l d f o u r i s t h e t a x e s . "2 " H o u s e h o l d T Y P E s . The h o u s e h o l d " T Y P E " g r o u p d a t a i n p u t i n v o l v e s f i v e s e p a r a t e r e c o r d s p e r h o u s e h o l d T Y P E . T h e y i n v o l v e one r e c o r d t o i n d i c a t e t h e b o u n d a r i e s o f t h e f o u r i n c o m e q u a r t i l e s ; t h e o t h e r f o u r c o n t a i n t h e p a r a m e t e r s f o r t h e e x p e n d i t u r e s h a r e f u n c t i o n f o r e a c h o f t h e f o u r q u a r t i l e s . The r e s p e c t i v e r e c o r d s f o r t h e t w o e x a m p l e h o u s e h o l d g r o u p s 368 a r e a s f o l l o w s : 2 0 0 1 3 5 3 . 9 6 3 8 . 4 8 7 0 . 2 1 2 8 9 . 2101 0 - . 3 9 8 - . 1 4 4 . 2 9 6 2 . 1 7 1 6 . 1 2 0 6 8 4 . 0 1 1 6 9 2201 0 - . 2 3 3 - . 1 1 8 . 0 9 7 0 . 2 3 2 4 - . 3 1 2 9 0 . 1 3 3 8 2 2301 0 - . 1 9 0 - . 0 8 9 . 1 3 5 7 . 2 8 7 3 - . 1 7 6 9 8 . 3 2 5 5 0 2401 0 - . 1 5 1 - . 0 8 1 . 0 9 3 8 . 3 1 3 8 - . 1 7 6 1 1 6 . 1 8 5 4 2 0 0 2 6 7 1 . 3 9 2 5 . 8 1 1 6 6 . 1 6 1 3 . 2 1 0 2 0 - . 2 5 0 - . 0 9 5 . 1 6 3 2 . 3 4 0 8 - . 0 8 6 9 0 . 3 5 3 9 2 2 2 0 2 0 - . 2 1 6 - . 1 0 1 . 1 7 3 7 . 2 9 6 4 . 0 4 9 1 1 0 5 . 9 5 6 6 2302 0 - . 1 8 9 - . 0 8 8 . 1 3 6 1 . 3 3 7 0 - . 1 2 1 1 1 7 . 1 7 3 7 2 4 0 2 0 - . 1 6 8 - . 0 9 3 . 0 7 7 4 . 2 4 9 1 - . 2 9 7 1 4 3 . 0 1 0 4 "3 " M o d e l d w e l l i n g s . M o d e l d w e l l i n g s a r e i n i t i a l i z e d w i t h t h r e e d a t a f i e l d s ; t h e o r i g i n a l l e v e l o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s , t h e z o n e i n w h i c h i t i s l o c a t e d a n d i t s t e n u r e t y p e . T h i s i n p u t i s g e n e r a t e d a l t e r n a t i v e l y f o r d e c a d e s t a r t by t h e p r o g r a m " D 6 1 . F O R T " , ( s e e d e s c r i p t i o n , S e c t i o n A 2 . 5 3 f o r d e t a i l s o f c a l c u l a t i o n s ) o r , when t h e p r o g r a m i s b e i n g u s e d t o c a l i b r a t e t h e EXT p a r a m e t e r s t h e i n p u t " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s a r e a s f o r t h e d e c a d e - e n d . I n t h i s i n s t a n c e t h e i n p u t d a t a s e t i s g e n e r a t e d by t h e u t i l i t y p r o g r a m " D 7 1 . F O R T " . The b a s i c r e c o r d s t r u c t u r e c o n s i s t s o f a " 3 " i n c o l u m n 1, t h e " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g number n o t e x c e e d i n g 120 i n c o l u m n s 2 - 4 , a n d t h e t h r e e d a t a f i e l d s . The r e q u i r e d d a t a i n p u t f o r t h e e x a m p l e i s a s f o l l o w s . 3001 50 1 1 3002 101 2 1 3003 1 29 1 1 3004 161 2 1 3 0 0 5 234 2 1 3006 50 2 2 3007 101 1 2 3008 1 29 2 2 3009 161 1 2 301 0 234 1 2 "4 " Z o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . D a t a r e c o r d s f o r z o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s c o n s i s t o f t h o s e f o r z o n e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s a n d one f o r t h e z o n e o f 369 new c o n s t r u c t i o n . The p r o g r a m a s s u m e s t h a t t h e z o n e w i t h t h e h i g h e s t n u m b e r i s t h e z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n . T h e i n p u t d a t a r e q u i r e d f o r a l l r u n s , g e n e r a t e d by t h e u t i l i t y p r o g r a m " C Z O N E . F O R T " , c o n s i s t s o f a n i n i t i a l i z i n g v a l u e f o r t h e z o n e ' s " e n d o f t h e d e c a d e r e l a t i v e w e a l t h " ; t h e z o n e ' s a v e r a g e d e c a d e - e n d h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e , a n d a r e l a t i v e a c c e s s v a r i a b l e . T h e r e c o r d s t r u c t u r e c o n s i s t s o f a " 4 0 " i n c o l u m n s 1-2 t h e z o n e n u m b e r , up t o 2 0 , i n c o l u m n s 3 - 4 , a n d t w o d a t a f i e l d s . The s t a n d a r d z o n a l i n p u t f o r t h e e x a m p l e , w i t h " 4 0 0 3 " b e i n g t h e z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n i s : 4 0 0 1 2 0 0 0 0 31 4 0 0 2 3 7 0 9 0 50 4 0 0 3 2 9 1 1 0 47 "5 " B e h a v i o u r a l p a r a m e t e r s . The p r o g r a m u s e s f i f t e e n b e h a v i o u r a l p a r a m e t e r s i n a d d i t i o n t o t h e " T Y P E " s p e c i f i c p a r a m e t e r s e n t e r e d f o r t h e e x p e n d i t u r e s h a r e f u n c t i o n . T h e y a r e l o a d e d u n d e r t h e b a s i c c o d e " 5 0 " a n d a r e i d e n t i f i e d by t h e n u m b e r s i n c o l u m n s 3 - 4 . Two p a r a m e t e r s r e l a t e t o t h e z o n a l e x t e r n a l i t i e s , one t o i n p u t t h e c o n s u m e r p r i c e i n d e x w i t h t h e r e m a i n d e r u s e d t o f o r m u l a t e a l t e r n a t i v e l y t h e o w n e r - o c c u p i e r a n d r e n t a l s u p p l y f u n c t i o n s . The r e s p e c t i v e number c o d i n g s a r e : " 5 0 0 1 " E X T 1 : t h i s p a r a m e t e r d e t e r m i n e s z o n a l a l l o c a t i o n s . I t i s e q u i v a l e n t t o t h e "GAMMA2" p a r a m e t e r i n t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l , i n d i c a t i n g t h e v a l u e h o u s e h o l d s p l a c e , o t h e r t h i n g s e q u a l , on b e i n g l o c a t e d i n a w e a l t h y z o n e . T h i s p a r a m e t e r h a s a l o w e r l i m i t o f z e r o a n d no n a t u r a l u p p e r l i m i t , b u t n o r m a l l y o p e r a t e s i n t h e r a n g e 0 . 0 t o 1 . 0 . " 5 0 0 2 " E X T 2 : t h i s p a r a m e t e r d e t e r m i n e s z o n a l a l l o c a t i o n s . I t i s e q u i v a l e n t t o t h e " G A M M A 3 " p a r a m e t e r i n t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l , i n d i c a t i n g t h e s t r e n g t h o f t h e h o u s e h o l d s ' p r e f e r e n c e f o r l e i s u r e . A v a l u e o f z e r o i n d i c a t e s t h a t a c c e s s i s n o t v a l u e d , a v a l u e >0 t h r o u g h <1 i n d i c a t e s a d e c l i n i n g m a r g i n a l u t i l i t y , 1 i n d i c a t e s a l i n e a r p r e f e r e n c e f u n c t i o n , a n d v a l u e s >1 g e n e r a t e a n i n c r e a s i n g m a r g i n a l u t i l i t y f o r a c c e s s . N o r m a l l y o p e r a t e s i n t h e r a n g e 0 . 0 tO 1 . 0 . 370 " 5 0 0 3 " B E T A 1 : R E N T A L : t h i s p a r a m e t e r i n d i c a t e s t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e i n i t i a l l e v e l o f s e r v i c e s an e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g w i l l p r o v i d e a t t h e e n d o f t h e d e c a d e if_ t h e p r i c e p e r u n i t o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e o b t a i n e d c o v e r s o n l y o p e r a t i n g c o s t s . i . e . , a v a l u e o f 0 . 6 6 i n d i c a t e s t h a t 66% o f t h e i n i t i a l l e v e l w i l l s t i l l be s u p p l i e d u n d e r t h e s e p e s s i m i s t i c p r i c e c o n d i t i o n s . " 5 0 0 4 " B E T A 2 : R E N T A L c o r r e s p o n d i n g l y , t h i s p a r a m e t e r r e f e r s t o t h e a d d i t i o n a l s e r v i c e s t h a t w i l l be p r o v i d e d i n r e s p o n s e t o an i n c r e a s e i n t h e p r i c e r e c e i v e d p e r u n i t o f h o u s i n g o v e r t h e o p e r a t i n g c o s t . " 5 0 0 5 " BETA 1:OWNERS: t h i s p a r a m e t e r i n d i c a t e s t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e i n i t i a l l e v e l o f s e r v i c e s an e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g w i l l p r o v i d e a t t h e e n d o f t h e d e c a d e i_ |_ t h e p r i c e p e r u n i t o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e o b t a i n e d c o v e r s o n l y o p e r a t i n g c o s t s . i . e . , a v a l u e o f 0 . 6 6 i n d i c a t e s t h a t 66% o f t h e i n i t i a l l e v e l w i l l s t i l l be s u p p l i e d u n d e r t h e s e p e s s i m i s t i c p r i c e c o n d i t i o n s . " 5 0 0 6 " BETA2:OWNERS c o r r e s p o n d i n g l y , t h i s p a r a m e t e r r e f e r s t o t h e a d d i t i o n a l s e r v i c e s t h a t w i l l be p r o v i d e d i n r e s p o n s e t o a n i n c r e a s e i n t h e p r i c e r e c e i v e d p e r u n i t o f h o u s i n g o v e r t h e o p e r a t i n g c o s t . " 5 0 0 7 " O C : R E N T A L : d e t e r m i n e s t h e b r e a k p o i n t i n t h e s u p p l y f u n c t i o n . A t p r i c e s b e l o w t h i s l e v e l t h e d w e l l i n g s u p p l i e s t h e f u l l y d e p r e c i a t e d q u a n t i t y . " 5 0 0 8 " O C : O W N E R S : d e t e r m i n e s t h e b r e a k p o i n t i n t h e s u p p l y f u n c t i o n . A t p r i c e s b e l o w t h i s l e v e l t h e d w e l l i n g s u p p l i e s t h e f u l l y d e p r e c i a t e d q u a n t i t y . The p a r a m e t e r s " 5 0 1 1 " , " 5 0 1 2 " , " 5 0 1 3 " c o r r e s p o n d t o " 6 0 0 1 " , " 6 0 0 2 " a n d " 6 0 0 3 " f r o m t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l b u t a p p l y o n l y t o t h e r e n t a l d w e l l i n g s . C o r r e s p o n d i n g l y " 5 0 1 6 " , " 5 0 1 7 " a n d " 5 0 1 8 " a p p l y t o o w n e r d w e l l i n g s . The b a s i c s u p p l y f u n c t i o n f o r new c o n s t r u c t i o n i s a s s u m e d e l a s t i c a t a p r i c e , P N , a b o v e a m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f s e r v i c e s , Q M , d i c t a t e d by b u i l d i n g c o d e s . QM i s i n p u t d i r e c t l y w h i l e PN may be i n p u t d i r e c t l y o r c a l c u l a t e d a s t h e sum o f t h e two i n p u t s ; PO a n d P C . The s e p a r a t e i n p u t s o f PO a n d PC a r e n e c e s s a r y s i n c e b o t h v a l u e s i n d e p e n d e n t l y e n t e r t h e s u p p l y f u n c t i o n o f an e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g . T h e s e v a l u e s a r e m e a s u r e d on a f l o w b a s i s , i n t e r m s o f d o l l a r s p e r m o n t h p e r u n i t o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s , a n d a r e c a l c u l a t e d 371 a s t h e v a l u e a t t h e e n d o f t h e d e c a d e . " 5 0 1 1 " RPO : O P E R A T I N G C O S T : R E N T A L i s t h e c a s h c o s t o f m o n t h l y o p e r a t i o n p e r u n i t o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e , e x c l u s i v e o f f i n a n c i n g . G i v e n t h a t t h e a v e r a g e i n i t i a l p r i c e o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e i s 1 . 0 , t h e r a n g e o f t h i s p a r a m e t e r i s 0 . 2 t h r o u g h 1 . 5 . " 5 0 1 2 " RPC : F I N A N C I N G C O S T : R E N T A L i s t h e m o n t h l y c o s t o f f i n a n c i n g one u n i t o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e . " 5 0 1 3 " OQM : MINIMUM Q U A N T I T Y : R E N T A L ; i n d i c a t e s t h e m i n i m u m number o f u n i t s o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e e a c h new d w e l l i n g mus t p r o v i d e . T h i s m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y c o r r e s p o n d s t o g o v e r n m e n t -i m p o s e d r e s t r i c t i o n s on s i z e a n d q u a l i t y f o r new c o n s t r u c t i o n . " 5 0 1 6 " OPO : O P E R A T I N G COST:OWNERS i s t h e c a s h c o s t o f m o n t h l y o p e r a t i o n p e r u n i t o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e , e x c l u s i v e o f f i n a n c i n g . G i v e n t h a t t h e a v e r a g e i n i t i a l p r i c e o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e i s 1 . 0 , t h e r a n g e o f t h i s p a r a m e t e r i s 0 . 2 t h r o u g h 1 . 5 . " 5 0 1 7 " OPC : F I N A N C I N G C O S T : O W N E R S : i s t h e m o n t h l y c o s t o f f i n a n c i n g one u n i t o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e . " 5 0 1 8 " OQM : MINIMUM Q U A N T I T Y : O W N E R S ; i n d i c a t e s t h e m i n i m u m number o f u n i t s o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e e a c h new d w e l l i n g mus t p r o v i d e . T h i s m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y c o r r e s p o n d s t o g o v e r n m e n t -i m p o s e d r e s t r i c t i o n s on s i z e a n d q u a l i t y f o r new c o n s t r u c t i o n . When t h e p r o g r a m i s i n " c a l i b r a t i o n " mode i t w i l l a c c e p t two i n p u t v a l u e s f o r a n y two p a i r s o f t h e f i r s t s i x p a r a m e t e r s , i . e . , w i l l r e a d a s e c o n d v a u e i n f i e l d t w o ( c o l u m n 1 0 - 1 4 ) . T h e s e v a l u e s w i l l i n d i c a t e t o t h e p r o g r a m t h a t a m u l t i p l e s e t o f r u n s i s r e q u i r e d i n w h i c h t h e v a l u e s o f t h e two r e s p e c t i v e p a r a m e t e r s a r e v a r i e d b e t w e e n t h e t w o s u p p l i e d v a l u e s . One p a i r o f p a r a m e t e r s w i l l g e n e r a t e f o u r r u n s , t w o p a i r s s i x t e e n r u n s . 372 T h e r e s p e c t i v e p a r a m e t e r v a l u e s i n p u t f o r t h e e x a m p l e a r e : 5 0 0 1 0 . 2 0 0 5 0 0 2 0 . 1 0 0 5 0 0 3 0 . 7 5 0 5 0 0 4 0 . 5 0 0 5 0 0 5 0 . 7 5 0 5 0 0 6 0 . 5 0 0 5 0 0 7 1 . 2 0 5 50081 . 178 5 0 1 1 0 . 4 5 0 5 0 1 2 1 . 2 0 0 5 0 1 3 3 7 . 0 0 5 0 1 6 0 . 4 5 0 5 0 1 7 1 . 4 2 0 5 0 1 8 3 9 . 0 0 5 0 2 0 1 . 2 8 2 "7 " C a l i b r a t i o n d a t a . The m o d e l s a r e c a l i b r a t e d t o a g i v e n u r b a n a r e a , i n t e r m s o f t h e E X T a n d BETA b e h a v i o u r a l p a r a m e t e r s , by s i m u l a t i n g t h e m o d e l u n d e r d i f f e r e n t s e t s o f p a r a m e t e r v a l u e s a n d d e t e r m i n i n g w h i c h s e t g i v e s t h e " b e s t f i t " . B e s t f i t i s c a l c u l a t e d i n t e r m s o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e a c t u a l m a r k e t r e s u l t s a n d t h e s i m u l a t e d r e s u l t s . The a c t u a l r e s u l t s r e q u i r e d f o r s u c h e r r o r t e s t i n g a r e g e n e r a t e d b y t h e u t i l i t y p r o g r a m " D 7 1 . F O R T " , a n d i n p u t w i t h a r e c o r d s t r u c t u r e o f " 7 0 " i n c o l u m n s 1 - 2 , t h e z o n e number i n c o l u m n s 3 - 4 , a n d t w e l v e d a t a f i e l d s . T h e s e f i e l d s a r e ; f i e l d one ( c o l u m n s 5 - 9 ) t h e a v e r a g e p r i c e , f i e l d s two t h r o u g h n i n e ( c o l u m n s 1 0 - 4 9 ) a r e b l a n k , f i e l d t e n ( c o l u m n s 5 0 - 5 4 ) t h e a v e r a g e i n c o m e , a n d f i e l d e l e v e n ( c o l u m n s 5 5 - 5 9 ) t h e u t i l i z a t i o n f a c t o r , w h i c h i s t h e p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e s t a r t i n g s t o c k o c c u p i e d a t t h e e n d o f t h e p e r i o d . F i e l d t w e l v e i s t h e a v e r a g e q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s c o n s u m e d . (See t h e d e s c r i p t i o n o f " D 7 1 . F 0 R T " , i n S e c t i o n A 2 . 5 2 , f o r f u l l d e t a i l s . ) The c a l i b r a t i o n i n p u t f o r t h e e x a m p l e i s : 7 0 0 1 1 . 1 0 0 12000 . 7 5 2 1 0 . 7 0 0 2 1 . 3 0 0 7230 . 8 5 1 7 0 . 7 0 0 3 1 . 2 0 0 2 8 1 4 0 1.00 3 0 0 . 373 "8 " " P o l i c y " d a t a . T h i s d a t a i s r e q u i r e d when t h e p r o g r a m i s i n " p o l i c y " m o d e , s i m u l a t i n g t h e e f f e c t s o f a l t e r n a t i v e m a r k e t i n t e r v e n t i o n . D e t a i l s o f t h e s e i n p u t r e c o r d s a r e i n c l u d e d i n t h e S e c t i o n A 2 . 6 9 : P o l i c y M o d e . "9 " S y s t e m c o n t r o l p a r a m e t e r s . T h e s e ' p a r a m e t e r s a r e u s e d t o c o n t r o l i n p u t t o a n d o u t p u t f r o m t h e p r o g r a m , i n a d d i t i o n t o c o n t r o l l i n g t h e o p e r a t i o n o f t h e a l g o r i t h m . O p t i o n s a r e p r o v i d e d t o c o n t r o l t h e v o l u m e o f p r i n t e d o u t p u t , c o n t r o l g r a p h i c a l o u t p u t a n d t o i n d i c a t e t h e p r o g r a m m o d e . I t s h o u l d be n o t e d t h a t i n a c t u a l u s e m o s t o f t h e d a t a r e c o r d s a r e c o n t a i n e d i n i n p u t d a t a f i l e s . T h r e e a l t e r n a t i v e f i l e s a r e u s e d f o r e a c h C M . A . c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e d i f f e r e n t s o l u t i o n modes o f t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m . 1. C M A . D 5 T : i n p u t f o r c a l i b r a t i n g t h e E X T p a r a m e t e r s 2 . C M A . S 5 T : i n p u t f o r c a l i b r a t i n g t h e BETA p a r a m e t e r s 3 . C M A . P 5 T : o u t p u t f r o m B A S E mode r u n s f o r P O L I C Y mode r u n s T h e s e f i l e s c o n t a i n r e c o r d s a s f o l l o w s ; 1. C M A . D 5 T - BETA c a l i b r a t i o n 1. 1971 " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s 2 . 1971 h o u s e h o l d t y p e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s - e x p e n d i t u r e s h a r e p a r a m e t e r s 3 . 1971 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s 4 . 1971 z o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 5 . EXT c a l i b r a t i o n s e t 2 . C M A . D 5 T - BETA c a l i b r a t i o n 1. 1971 " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s 2 . 1971 h o u s e h o l d t y p e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s - e x p e n d i t u r e s h a r e p a r a m e t e r s 3 . 1961 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s 4 . 1961 z o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 5 . BETA c a l i b r a t i o n s e t 374 2 . C M A . P 5 T - P o l i c y a n a l y s i s 1. 1971 " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s 2 . 1971 h o u s e h o l d t y p e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s - e x p e n d i t u r e s h a r e p a r a m e t e r s 3 . 1961 " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s 4 . 1961 z o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s The r e m a i n i n g r e c o r d s ; t h o s e f o r t h e b e h a v i o u r a l p a r a m e t e r s , t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n a n d o p e r a t i n g d a t a , t h e p o l i c y d a t a a n d t h e s y s t e m c o n t r o l p a r a m e t e r s , a r e i n p u t f r o m t h e c o n t r o l d e c k . W h i l e l o a d i n g t h e d a t a , t h e p r o g r a m c h e c k s f o r e r r o r s , c o u n t s t h e number o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s a n d " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s , a n d e n s u r e s t h a t t h e n u m b e r i n g i s c o n t i n u o u s a n d t h a t z o n e a n d t y p e s p e c i f i c a t i o n s a r e c o r r e c t . E r r o r s a r e i n d i c a t e d . A f t e r l o a d i n g , a r e v i e w o f t h e i n p u t i s o u t p u t a s f o l l o w s ; 375 *** INPUT DATA Example Solution *** "1 " model HOUSEHOLDS: number households 10 household 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 income 1527 2235 3938 5616 23829 2235 9779 11275 13986 16827 type 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. *** "2 " HOUSEHOLD TYPE GROUPS: TYPE group 1 2 income 354. 671. income 638. 926. number groups income income 870. 1166. 1289. 1613. * * * "21 DEMAND PARAMETERS Q01 TYPE 1 2 AO 0 .0 0 .0 A1 -0 .3980-0 .2500 A2 -0 .6020-0 .7500 B1 1 -0 .1440-0 .0950 B1 2 0 .2962 0 .1632 B21 0 .2962 0 .1632 B22 -0 .1756-0 .2492 BM1 0 .1716 0 .3408 BM2 0 .1206-0 .0860 MXH 84.0 90.4 MXG 169.4 392.5 MEX 353.9 671 .3 MPH 1 .6300 1 .8550 esP 21230- • 18020 esY • 21230- • 18020 *** » 22 " DEMAND PARi TYPE 1 2 AO 0 .0 0 .0 A1 -0 .2330-•o .2160 A2 -0 .7670--0 .7840 B1 1 -0 .1180-•o .1010 B1 2 0 .0970 0 .1737 B21 0 .0970 0 .1737 B22 -o .4090--o . 1 246 BM1 0 .2324 0 .2964 BM2 -0 .31 20 0 .0491 MXH 90. 1 1 05.9 MXG 382.0 566.9 MEX 638.4 925.8 MPH 1 .6500 1 .8810 esP • 17215- • 16502 esY • 17215- • 16502 Q02 3 7 6 * * * « 2 3 " DEMAND PARAMETERS Q03 T Y P E 1 2 AO 0 . 0 0 . 0 A1 - 0 . 1 9 0 0 - 0 . 1 8 9 0 A2 - 0 . 8 1 0 0 - 0 . 8 1 1 0 B1 1 - 0 . 0 8 9 0 - 0 . 0 8 8 0 B1 2 0 . 1 357 0 . 1 361 B21 0 . 1 3 5 7 0 . 1 361 B22 - 0 . 3 1 1 7 - 0 . 2 5 7 1 BM1 0 . 2 8 7 3 0 . 3 3 7 0 BM2 - 0 . 1 7 6 0 - 0 . 1 2 1 0 MXH 9 8 . 3 1 1 7 . 1 MXG 5 5 0 . 3 7 3 7 . 6 MEX 8 7 0 . 2 1 1 6 6 . 0 MPH 1 . 6 7 6 0 1 . 8 7 8 0 e s P • 1 4 3 5 9 - • 1 51 69 e s Y • 1 4 3 5 9 - • 1 51 69 * * * " 2 4 " DEMAND PARAMETERS Q04 T Y P E 1 2 AO 0 . 0 0 . 0 A1 - 0 . 1 5 1 0 - 0 . 1 680 A2 - 0 . 8 4 9 0 - 0 . 8 3 2 0 B1 1 - 0 . 0 8 1 0 - 0 . 0 9 3 0 B1 2 0 . 0 9 3 8 0 . 0 7 7 4 B21 0 . 0 9 3 8 0 . 0 7 7 4 B22 - 0 . 2 6 9 8 - 0 . 3 7 4 4 BM1 0 . 3 1 3 8 0 . 2 4 9 1 BM2 - 0 . 1 7 6 0 - 0 . 2 9 7 0 MXH 1 1 6 . 1 1 4 3 . 0 MXG 8 5 4 . 8 1 0 4 9 . 0 MEX 1 2 8 9 . 0 1 6 1 3 . 0 MPH 1 . 6 6 3 0 1 . 8 6 9 0 e s P • 1 2 8 3 8 - 1 3485 e s Y • 1 2 8 3 8 - • 1 3485 * * * "3 " m o d e l D W E L L I N G S : number d w e l l i n g s 10 d w e l l i n g 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 s e r v i c e s 50 101 129 161 234 50 101 129 161 234 z o n e 1 2 1 2 2 2 1 2 1 1 t e n u r e 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 * * * "40 " ZONAL C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S : number z o n e s 3 ZONE number 1 2 3 " w e a l t h " 2 0 0 0 0 . 3 7 0 9 0 . 2 9 1 1 0 . d i s t a n c e 3 1 . 5 0 . 4 7 . 377 * * * " 5 0 " E X T E R N A L I T I E S PARAMETERS EXT1 ( w e a l t h ) 0.50 0.0 E X T 2 ( a c c e s s ) 0.50 0.0 * * * "50 BETA 1 0.0 S U P P L Y PARAMETERS %EXP r e n t a l B E T A 2 0.0 0.0 BETA 1 0.0 * * * "501 " P R I C E a n d MINQ PARAMETERS RPO 0 . 4 5 C P I = * * * " 7 0 r e n t a l RPC 1 . 2 0 RQM 7 0 . 0 0 OPO 0 . 4 5 1 . 2 8 2 0 0 " C A L I B R A T I O N D A T A : o w n e r s BETA2 0 . 0 o w n e r s OPC 1 . 4 2 %EXP 0 . 0 OQM 9 0 . 0 0 z o n e p r i c e i n c o m e u s a g e " Q " 1 1 .10 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 1 2 0 0 0 . 0 . 7 5 2 1 0 . 0 2 1 .65 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 7 2 3 0 . 0 . 8 5 1 7 0 . 0 3 1.81 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 2 8 1 4 0 . 0 . 0 3 0 0 . 0 378 A 2 . 6 3 I n i t i a l C a l c u l a t i o n s . The s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m i s a r e p e t i t i v e s i m u l a t i o n p r o c e s s w h e r e b y v a l u e s c a l c u l a t e d i n one " e x e c u t i o n " o f t h e a l l o c a t i o n a l g o r i t h m a r e u s e d a s i n p u t f o r a s u b s e q u e n t " e x e c u t i o n " . The s o l u t i o n p r o c e s s i s r e p e a t e d u n t i l t h e i n p u t a n d o u t p u t v a l u e s o f s e l e c t e d p a r a m e t e r s c o n v e r g e . D u r i n g t h e i n i t i a l c a l c u l a t i o n s t a g e , t h e p r o g r a m c a l c u l a t e s t h o s e v a r i a b l e v a l u e s t h a t a r e c o n s t a n t t h r o u g h o u t a c o m p l e t e r u n a n d i n i t i a l i z e s t h o s e e n d o g e n o u s v a r i a b l e s whose v a l u e s v a r y w i t h e a c h e x e c u t i o n . I n g e n e r a l o n l y t h e z o n a l w e a l t h e x t e r n a l i t y v a r i a b l e v a r i e s d u r i n g p r o g r a m i t e r a t i o n a n d a l l s o l u t i o n c o n d i t i o n s i n c l u d i n g t h e p r i c e - q u a n t i t y i n t e r c e p t s b e t w e e n h o u s e h o l d ' s demand f u n c t i o n s a n d t h e r e s p e c t i v e s u p p l y f u n c t i o n s a r e c a l c u l a t e d e x o g e n o u s t o t h e s o l u t i o n p r o c e s s . T h e s e c a l c u l a t i o n s a r e d e t a i l e d i n S e c t i o n A 2 . 6 4 t h a t f o l l o w s . The i n i t i a l c a l c u l a t i o n s , common t o a l l s i m u l a t i o n s c o n s i s t o f ; c a l c u l a t i n g " p e r m a n e n t " o r " m o d e l " i n c o m e , s o r t i n g t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s i n d e s c e n d i n g " m o d e l " i n c o m e o r d e r a n d t h e i n i t i a l i z a t i o n o f t h e z o n a l e x t e r n a l i t i e s . A 2 . 6 3 1 M o n t h l y I n c o m e W h i l e t h e p r o g r a m t a k e s a s i n p u t a m i x t u r e o f a n n u a l a n d m o n t h l y v a l u e s , a l l c a l c u l a t i o n s a r e b a s e d on m o n t h l y v a l u e s . The " a c t u a l " i n c o m e , u s e d i n a l l c o m p u t a t i o n s , i s s i m p l y t h e i n p u t a n n u a l a f t e r t a x i n c o m e d i v i d e d by 1 2 . B a s e d on t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s i n c o m e l e v e l , t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g e x p e n d i t u r e s h a r e i s c a l c u l a t e d b a s e d on t h e r e s p e c t i v e q u a r t i l e v a l u e s f o r t h e T Y P E : c a l c u l a t e d a s a l i n e a r i n t e r p o l a t i o n o f t h e means f o r t h e b o u n d i n g q u a r t i l e m e a n s . I f t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s i n c o m e i s g r e a t e r t h a n t h e mean f o r q u a r t i l e 4 o r l e s s t h a n t h e mean f o r q u a r t i l e 1 t h e v a l u e i s 379 e x t r a p o l a t e d u s i n g t h e r e s p e c t i v e s h a r e e l a s t i c i t y . The " i n p u t " a n d t h e " a c t u a l " i n c o m e s c a n be o u t p u t f o r e a c h h o u s e h o l d a l o n g w i t h t h e r e l e v a n t e x p e n d i t u r e s h a r e s i n t h e f o l l o w i n g f o r m : * * * HOUSEHOLD C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S : t e s t s i m u l a t i o n p r o g h o u s e h o l d 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 " Y " i n p u t 1527 2 2 3 5 3938 5616 2 3 8 2 9 2 2 3 5 9779 11275 13986 16827 S h a r e . 3 9 8 6 . 3 9 8 4 . 3 9 8 0 . 3 3 1 8 . 1 5 1 0 . 2 5 0 3 . 2 3 0 8 . 2 1 4 5 .1891 . 1 7 7 9 " Y " a c t u a l 127 186 328 468 1986 186 815 940 1166 1402 A 2 . 6 3 2 O r d e r i n g t h e " M o d e l " H o u s e h o l d s . A f t e r c a l c u l a t i n g t h e " a c t u a l " i n c o m e s t h e p r o g r a m c r e a t e s an o r d e r e d a r r a y o f t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s . T h i s a r r a y , t e r m e d t h e s t a c k o f " u n a s s i g n e d " h o u s e h o l d s , c o n t a i n s a l l " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s o r d e r e d by t h e i r " a c t u a l " i n c o m e . T h i s o r d e r i n g a l l o w s t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m t o a l l o c a t e t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s by d e c l i n i n g c o n s u m p t i o n l e v e l s , t h u s m i n i m i s i n g t h e s u b s e q u e n t n e e d f o r " r e a s s i g n m e n t s " , i n c r e a s i n g t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m ' s e f f i c i e n c y . S i n c e i n c o m e s a r e e x o g e n o u s l y d e t e r m i n e d , t h i s o r d e r i n g o f t h e s t a c k i s r e t a i n e d t h r o u g h o u t t h e r u n . The o r d e r e d s t a c k f o r t h e e x a m p l e i s ; * * * ORDERED HOUSEHOLD STACK 5 1 0 9 8 7 4 3 2 6 1 A 2 . 6 3 3 I n i t i a l i z e " R e l a t i v e " W e a l t h E x t e r n a l i t y P a r a m e t e r . The e n d o g e n o u s l y d e r i v e d c o m p o n e n t o f t h e u t i l i t y f u n c t i o n i s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e p r e f e r e n c e f o r l i v i n g i n a w e a l t h y z o n e . The r e l a t i v e " w e a l t h " o f a z o n e i s m e a s u r e d a s t h e r a t i o o f t h e a v e r a g e h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e i n t h e z o n e , t o t h e a v e r a g e h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e f o r t h e u r b a n a r e a a t l a r g e . 380 W ( i z ) = ( M Y ) z o n e / ( M Y ) c i t y w h e r e , (MY) i s t h e a v e r a g e h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e f o r t h e r e s p e c t i v e g r o u p i n g s . The v a l u e s f o r W ( i z ) a r e i n i t i a l i z e d a s t h e r a t i o o f t h e r e s p e c t i v e a c t u a l a v e r a g e d e c a d e - e n d v a l u e s o f ( M Y ) , w h e r e ( M Y ) c i t y i s s e t t o t h e v a l u e f o r t h e z o n e o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n . By i n i t i a l i z i n g W ( i z ) a t t h e s e v a l u e s , i n p r e f e r e n c e t o s e t t i n g t hem t o o n e , a f a s t e r c o n v e r g e n c e o f t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m i s a c h i e v e d . D u r i n g e a c h " e x e c u t i o n " , t h e W ( i z ) ' s a r e r e c a l c u l a t e d f r o m t h e r e l e v a n t d a t a f o r i n p u t i n t o t h e n e x t " e x e c u t i o n " . I n m u l t i p l e c a l i b r a t i o n r u n s , t h e p r e v i o u s l y c a l c u l a t e d s e t i s u s e d a t i n i t i a l i z a t i o n f o r s u b s e q u e n t i t e r a t i o n s . A 2 . 6 4 P r i c e - Q u a n t i t y I n t e r c e p t s W i t h t h e M a c R a e a l l o c a t i o n a l g o r i t h m a l l v a l i d i n t e r c e p t s b e t w e e n a h o u s e h o l d ' s demand c u r v e a n d t h e s u p p l y c u r v e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h new a n d e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s a r e c a l c u l a t e d a n d t h e s o l u t i o n s " o r d e r e d " by " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d , i n t e r m s o f a d e c l i n i n g t o t a l u t i l i t y d e r i v e d f r o m h o u s i n g a n d o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s . G i v e n t h e d i f f e r e n t n a t u r e o f t h e s u p p l y c u r v e s f o r t h e new a n d e x i s t i n g s e r v i c e s , t h e p r o g r a m u t i l i z e s two s e p a r a t e r o u t i n e s f o r s o l v i n g f o r t h e r e l e v a n t q u a n t i t y o f new s e r v i c e s a n d t h e p r i c e a n d q u a n t i t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s . I n a d d i t i o n , s i n c e " p o l i c i e s " a r e i n t r o d u c e d by m o d i f y i n g t h e r e s p e c t i v e s u p p l y a n d demand c u r v e s ; a s e p a r a t e s o l u t i o n e q u a t i o n mus t be d e r i v e d f o r e a c h c o m b i n a t i o n o f s u p p l y f u n c t i o n a n d s u b s i d y p o l i c y . The r e s u l t i s a m u l t i p l i c i t y o f s o l u t i o n e q u a t i o n s b e i n g i n c l u d e d i n t h i s s e c t i o n o f t h e p r o g r a m . D e t a i l s o f " p o l i c y " 381 i m p l e m e n t a t i o n s a r e i n c l u d e d i n S e c t i o n A 2 . 6 9 . A 2 . 6 4 1 Q u a n t i t y a n d P a r t i a l U t i l i t y : New D w e l l i n g s The s u p p l y f u n c t i o n f o r new " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s i n v o l v e s h o r i z o n t a l f u n c t i o n s a t r e s p e c t i v e l y RPN a n d OPN f o r t h e r e n t a l a n d owned d w e l l i n g s . The q u a n t i t y i s c a l c u l a t e d d i r e c t l y u t i l i z i n g t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s " a c t u a l " i n c o m e a n d e x p e n d i t u r e s h a r e . F i r s t l y t h e e x p e n d i t u r e s h a r e i s r e c o m p u t e d t o r e f l e c t t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n PN a n d t h e "mean p r c e " f o r t h e h o u s e h o l d u t i l i z i n g t h e " s h a r e e l a s t i c i t y w i t h r e s p e c t t o p r i c e " ( S e e S e c t i o n 8 . 5 2 f o r t h e o r e t i c a l b a s i s ) . B a s e d on t h e i n c o m e a n d t h e e x p e n d i t u r e s h a r e , t h e e x p e n d i t u r e on h o u s i n g a n d c o n s e q u e n t l y t h e q u a n t i t y , a t t h e g i v e n p r i c e , c a n be c a l c u l a t e d . B a s e d on t h e c o m p u t e d q u a n t i t y a n d t h e r e s i d u a l q u a n t i t y o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s , t h e u t i l i t y i s c a l c u l a t e d u s i n g t h e l o g l i n e a r f o r m u l a t i o n a n d c o m b i n e d w i t h t h e p a r t i a l u t i l i t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h " a c c e s s " . T h i s p a r t i a l u t i l i t y v a l u e w i l l be c o n s t a n t t h r o u g h o u t t h e s o l u t i o n l o o p s a s i t i s d e r i v e d c o m p l e t e l y f r o m e x o g e n o u s d a t a . The p r i c e , q u a n t i t y a n d p a r t i a l u t i l i t y d a t a a r e t h e n s t o r e d f o r s u b s e q u e n t u s e . I f an i n v a l i d i n t e r c e p t o c c u r s , t h e r e l e v a n t p r i c e , q u a n t i t y a n d p a r t i a l u t i l i t y v a l u e s a r e s e t t o z e r o . A 2 . 6 4 2 Q u a n t i t y , P r i c e a n d P a r t i a l U t i l i t y : E x i s t i n g D w e l l i n g s The c o m p u t a t i o n o f t h e i n t e r c e p t b e t w e e n t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s demand f u n c t i o n a n d t h e s u p p l y f u n c t i o n a s s o c i a t e d w i t h an e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g i s c o m p l i c a t e d f u r t h e r by t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s e x p e n d i t u r e s h a r e b e i n g d e p e n d a n t on t h e unknown p r i c e . T h u s , w h i l e t h e s o l u t i o n p r o c e s s i s s i m i l i a r t o t h a t u s e d w i t h new d w e l l i n g s t h e 382 e x p e n d i t u r e s h a r e mus t be r e c a l c u l a t e d f o r e a c h c o m p u t e d p r i c e d u r i n g t h e s o l u t i o n i t e r a t i o n s . The g e n e r a l p r o c e d u r e t h u s i n v o l v e s c a l c u l a t i n g t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e q u a n t i t y demand a n d t h e q u a n t i t y s u p p l i e d o v e r a p r i c e r a n g e w i t h i t e r a t i o n s p r o c e e d i n g u n t i l t h e t w o q u a n t i t i e s c o n v e r g e . B a s e d on t h e c o m p u t e d p r i c e a n d q u a n t i t y a n d t h e r e s i d u a l q u a n t i t y o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s , t h e u t i l i t y i s c a l c u l a t e d a s f o r new d w e l l i n g s f o r v a l i d i n t e r c e p t s . T h e s e s t o r e d p r i c e s , q u a n t i t i e s a n d " p a r t i a l " u t i l i t y d a t a c a n t h e n be o u t p u t a s f o l l o w s : * * * P R I C E , Q U A N T I T Y a n d " p a r t i a l " U T I L I T Y : t e s t s i m u l a t i o n p r o g ( H o u s e h o l d 1) d w e l l i n g 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 p r i c e 0 . 7 3 4 0 . 5 5 1 0 . 4 8 3 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 q u a n t i t y 5 0 . 0 1 0 1 . 0 1 2 9 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . p a r t " U " 0 . 4 6 5 0 . 6 5 4 0 . 7 8 2 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 ( H o u s e h o l d 2) d w e l l i n g 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 p r i c e 1 .074 0 . 8 0 7 0 . 7 0 7 0 . 6 2 1 0 . 4 9 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 q u a n t i t y 5 0 . 0 1 0 1 . 0 1 2 9 . 0 1 6 1 . 0 2 3 4 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . p a r t " U " 0 . 5 9 2 0 . 7 5 8 0 . 8 7 6 0 . 9 8 6 1 .296 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 ( H o u s e h o l d 3) d w e l l i n g 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 p r i c e 1 .889 1 .420 1 .244 1 .093 0 . 8 6 3 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 q u a n t i t y 5 0 . 0 1 0 1 . 0 1 2 9 . 0 1 6 1 . 0 2 3 4 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . p a r t " U " 0 . 8 9 1 0 . 9 8 9 1 . 0 8 6 1 .167 1 .414 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 ( H o u s e h o l d 4) d w e l l i n g 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 p r i c e 2 . 1 0 0 1 .679 1 . 4 8 9 1 .319 1 .054 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 q u a n t i t y 5 0 . 0 1 0 1 . 0 1 2 9 . 0 1 6 1 . 0 2 3 4 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . p a r t " U " 0 . 9 4 1 0 . 9 9 7 1 .067 1 .115 1 .272 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 383 ( H o u s e h o l d 5) d w e l l i n g 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 p r i c e 1 . 7 0 0 2 . 6 1 6 2 . 5 3 2 2 . 3 8 0 2 . 0 4 5 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 q u a n t i t y 5 0 . 0 1 0 1 . 0 1 2 9 . 0 1 6 1 . 0 2 3 4 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . p a r t " U " 1 . 5 9 9 1 .486 1 .497 1 .468 1 .475 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 ( H o u s e h o l d 6) d w e l l i n g 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 p r i c e 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 5 3 5 0 . 4 9 9 0 . 4 5 4 0 . 0 0 . 0 q u a n t i t y 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 5 0 . 0 1 0 1 . 0 1 2 9 . 0 0 . 0 0 . p a r t " U " 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 3 9 0 0 . 4 9 6 0 . 5 3 8 0 . 0 0 . 0 ( H o u s e h o l d 7) d w e l l i n g 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 1 0 p r i c e 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 1 .847 1 .888 1 . 7 4 4 1 .590 1.31 q u a n t i t y 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 5 0 . 0 1 0 1 . 0 1 2 9 . 0 1 6 1 . 0 2 3 4 . p a r t " U " 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 9 8 9 1 .014 1 . 0 1 7 1 . 0 6 1 0 1 . 1 2 7 ( H o u s e h o l d 8 ) d w e l l i n g 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 p r i c e 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 1 .695 1 .913 1.791 1 .647 1 .38 q u a n t i t y 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 5 0 . 0 1 0 1 . 0 1 2 9 . 0 1 6 1 . 0 2 3 4 . p a r t " U " 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 1 .000 1 .012 1 . 0 1 1 0 1 . 0 4 9 1 .105 ( H o u s e h o l d 9) d w e l l i n g 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 p r i c e 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 1 .398 1 .923 1.841 1 .719 1 .46 q u a n t i t y 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 5 0 . 0 1 0 1 . 0 1 2 9 . 0 1 6 1 . 0 2 3 4 . p a r t " U " 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 1 .070 1 . 0 1 1 0 1 . 0 0 4 1 .034 1 .073 ( H o u s e h o l d 10) d w e l l i n g 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 p r i c e 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 1 .139 1 .958 1 . 9 1 2 1 .808 1 .56 q u a n t i t y 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 5 0 . 0 1 0 1 . 0 1 2 9 . 0 1 6 1 . 0 2 3 4 . p a r t " U " 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 1 .014 1 .007 0 . 9 9 6 1 .023 1 .054 384 A s i n d i c a t e d i n t h i s e x a m p l e r e n t e r s c o n s i d e r o n l y r e n t a l d w e l l i n g s ; o w n e r - o c c u p i e r s o n l y o w n e r o c c u p i e r d w e l l i n g s . T h a t i s , t h e r e i s no p o t e n t i a l f o r t e n u r e s w i t c h i n g . I n EXT c a l i b r a t i o n mode o n l y e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s a r e c o n s i d e r e d : r e f l e c t i n g d e c a d e - e n d q u a n t i t i e s . W i t h o u t t h e u p p e r b o u n d i m p o s e d by t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f an o p t i o n a l new d w e l l i n g s t h e r e i s no c e i l i n g on t h e u n i t p r i c e s f o r t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k . O n l y t h o s e d w e l l i n g s y i e l d i n g a p r i c e l o w e r t h a n t h e o p e r a t i n g c o s t , 0 . 4 5 f o r b o t h r e n t a l a n d o w e n e d i n t h i s c a s e , h a v e z e r o v a l u e s . A 2 . 6 5 P a r a m e t e r I t e r a t i o n s L o o p . When t h e p r o g r a m i s i n " c a l i b r a t i o n " mode a n d m u l t i p l e v a l u e s h a v e b e e n e n t e r e d f o r t h e b e h a v i o u r a l p a r a m e t e r s , a p a r a m e t e r i t e r a t i o n l o o p i s c r e a t e d . T h i s l o o p t h e n c o n t r o l s e n t r y t o a n d e x i t f r o m t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m l o o p . The p a r a m e t e r s a r e i n i t i a l i z e d t o t h e f i r s t i n p u t v a l u e s a n d t h e n i n c r e a s e d by o n e -t h i r d t h e r a n g e i n s u b s e q u e n t r u n s . F o r e x a m p l e , i f t h e i n p u t p a r a m e t e r v a l u e s a r e ; 5001 0 . 2 0 . 5 5002 0 . 6 0 . 9 t h e p a r a m e t e r i t e r a t i o n c o m b i n a t i o n s w i l l b e ; EXT1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 EXT2 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0 . 2 0 . 7 0 . 3 0 . 7 0 . 4 0 . 7 0 . 5 0 . 7 EXT 1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 EXT2 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.9 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.9 0.5 0.9 A f t e r t h e f i r s t i t e r a t i o n t h e r e l a t i v e w e a l t h e x t e r n a l i t y - Wz - i s i n i t i a l i z e d t o t h e p r e v i o u s l y c a l c u l a t e d v a l u e . i . e . , n o t r e -i n i t i a l i z e d t o t h e i n p u t c o n d i t i o n s . 385 A 2 . 6 6 S o l u t i o n A l g o r i t h m L o o p . T h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m l o o p c o n s i s t s o f f o u r s e p a r a t e s e c t i o n s , e a c h e x e c u t e d i n o r d e r , t h e n r e p e a t e d u n t i l t h e c o n v e r g e n c e t o l e r a n c e c r i t e r i o n i s m e t . The f i r s t s t e p i n v o l v e s c a l c u l a t i n g t h e " e x t e r n a l i t y " u t i l i t y a n d t h e c r e a t i o n o f t h e " o r d e r e d d w e l l i n g " s t a c k s . The s e c o n d s t e p i n v o l v e s a l l o c a t i n g t h e h o u s e h o l d s among t h e e x i s t i n g a n d p o t e n t i a l l y new d w e l l i n g s . G i v e n t h e f i n a l a l l o c a t i o n s , t h e z o n e s ' " a c t u a l " w e a l t h e x t e r n a l i t i e s a r e t h e n c a l c u l a t e d a n d c o m p a r e d t o t h e i n i t i a l e x t e r n a l i t y v a l u e s . I f t h e d i f f e r e n c e i s w i t h i n t h e s p e c i f i e d t o l e r a n c e c o n t r o l i s t r a n s f e r r e d o u t o f t h e l o o p , o t h e r w i s e t h e s t e p s a r e r e p e a t e d up t o a maximum o f t e n t i m e s . A 2 . 6 6 1 R e l a t i v e W e a l t h U t i l i t y T h e p a r t i a l u t i l i t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e r e l a t i v e w e a l t h i s c a l c u l a t e d f o r e a c h e l e m e n t i n t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d - " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g a r r a y , w i t h t h e f u l l u t i l i t y b e i n g c a l c u l a t e d a s t h e p r o d u c t o f t h i s p a r t i a l v a l u e a n d t h e i n i t i a l l y s t o r e d " p a r t i a l " v a l u e . The f i n a l v a l u e o f t h e u t i l i t y i s z e r o i f t h e s t o r e d " p a r t i a l " v a l u e i s z e r o . The c a l c u l a t e d v a l u e s f o r t h e i n d i v i d u a l d w e l l i n g s c a n be o u t p u t by h o u s e h o l d , a s f o l l o w s ; 386 * * * " t o t a l " U T I L I T Y : t e s t s i m u l a t i o n p r o g ( H o u s e h o l d 1) d w e l l i n g 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 u t i l i t y 4 6 . 6 6 . 7 7 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . ( H o u s e h o l d 2) d w e l l i n g 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 u t i l i t y 5 8 . 7 7 . 8 6 . 1 0 0 . 1 3 1 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . ( H o u s e h o l d 3) d w e l l i n g 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 u t i l i t y 8 8 . 1 0 0 . 1 0 7 . 1 1 8 . 1 4 3 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . ( H o u s e h o l d 4) d w e l l i n g 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 u t i l i t y 9 2 . 1 0 1 . 1 0 5 . 1 1 3 . 1 2 9 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . ( H o u s e h o l d 5) d w e l l i n g 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 u t i l i t y 1 5 7 . 1 5 1 . 1 4 7 . 1 4 9 . 1 4 9 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . ( H o u s e h o l d 6) d w e l l i n g 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 u t i l i t y 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 4 0 . 4 9 . 5 5 . 0 . 0 . ( H o u s e h o l d 7) d w e l l i n g 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 u t i l i t y 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 1 0 0 . 1 0 0 . 1 0 3 . 1 0 4 . 1 1 1 . ( H o u s e h o l d 8 ) d w e l l i n g 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 u t i l i t y 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 1 0 1 . 9 9 . 1 0 2 . 1 0 3 . 1 0 9 . ( H o u s e h o l d 9) d w e l l i n g 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 u t i l i t y 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 1 0 2 . 9 9 . 1 0 2 . 1 0 2 . 1 0 5 . ( H o u s e h o l d 10) d w e l l i n g 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 u t i l i t y 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 1 0 3 . 9 9 . 1 0 1 . 1 0 0 . 1 0 4 . 387 A 2 . 6 6 2 H o u s e h o l d s ' " O r d e r e d D w e l l i n g " S t a c k s . I n p u t t o t h e a l l o c a t i o n a l g o r i t h m c o n s i s t s o f t h e " o r d e r e d u n a s s i g n e d " h o u s e h o l d s t a c k , c r e a t e d d u r i n g i n i t i a l i z a t i o n , a n d t h e " o r d e r e d d w e l l i n g " s t a c k s . The l a t t e r s t a c k s , one f o r e a c h h o u s e h o l d , a r e f o r m e d f r o m a l l d w e l l i n g s ( i n c l u d i n g t h e new d w e l l i n g ) t h a t y i e l d v a l i d i n t e r s e c t i o n s w i t h t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g h o u s e h o l d ' s demand c u r v e , i . e . , h a v e b e e n a s s i g n e d a p o s i t i v e " u t i l i t y " v a l u e . E a c h i n d i v i d u a l s t a c k i s o r d e r e d i n t e r m s o f d e s c e n d i n g u t i l i t y , w i t h t h e l o w e s t member b e i n g t h e new d w e l l i n g ; z e r o i f t h e h o u s e h o l d i s u n a b l e t o c o n s u m e a new d w e l l i n g . The new d w e l l i n g o c c u p i e s t h e b o t t o m p o s i t i o n i n t h e s t a c k a s i t i s a s s u m e d t h a t t h e r e i s no c o m p e t i t i o n f o r t h i s d w e l l i n g . The e x c e p t i o n i s t h a t d u r i n g EXT c a l i b r a t i o n r u n s , when no new " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s a r e a l l o c a t e d , a l l e x i s t i n g " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s y i e l d i n g a p r i c e g r e a t e r t h a n t h e o p e r a t i n g c o s t w i l l be i n c l u d e d i n t h e s t a c k s . The h o u s e h o l d i s f r e e t o s e l e c t t h e q u a n t i t y o f new h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s i t d e s i r e s t o c o n s u m e a n d t h e b u i l d i n g i n d u s t r y w i l l s u p p l y t h a t q u a n t i t y . W h i l e some d w e l l i n g s may y i e l d a v a l i d i n t e r s e c t i o n , e x t e r n a l i t i e s may be s u c h t h a t t h e t o t a l u t i l i t y d e r i v e d f r o m o c c u p y i n g t h e d w e l l i n g may be l e s s t h a n t h a t d e r i v e d f r o m c o n s u m i n g a new d w e l l i n g . I n t h e s e i n s t a n c e s , t h e e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g i s d i s c a r d e d d u r i n g c r e a t i o n o f t h e s t a c k s . T h e s e o r d e r e d s t a c k s c a n be o u t p u t a s f o l l o w s ; 388 * * * HOUSEHOLD'S " o r d e r e d " d w e l l i n g S T A C K S h o u s e h o l d 1 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 . h o u s e h o l d 2 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 h o u s e h o l d 3 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 h o u s e h o l d 4 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 h o u s e h o l d 5 1 2 5 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 h o u s e h o l d 6 8 7 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 h o u s e h o l d 7 10 9 8 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 h o u s e h o l d 8 10 9 8 6 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 h o u s e h o l d 9 10 6 8 9 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 h o u s e h o l d 10 10 6 8 9 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 A 2 . 6 6 3 " A l l o c a t i o n " A l g o r i t h m . The b a s i c o b j e c t i v e o f t h e a l l o c a t i o n a l g o r i t h m i s t o a s s i g n t h e o r d e r e d h o u s e h o l d s , one by o n e , t o t h e i r p r e f e r r e d d w e l l i n g , i f t h e y c a n o u t b i d t h e c u r r e n t o c c u p a n t , a n d r e - a s s i g n t h e m o n l y when a n o t h e r h o u s e h o l d i s w i l l i n g t o p a y a h i g h e r p r i c e f o r t h e d w e l l i n g . The a l g o r i t h m u s e s a s i n p u t t h e " o r d e r e d a s s i g n e d " 389 h o u s e h o l d s t a c k a n d t h e h o u s h o l d s ' " o r d e r e d d w e l l i n g " s t a c k s . The o u t p u t i s a d w e l l i n g o c c u p a n c y a r r a y t h a t i n d i c a t e s w h i c h h o u s e h o l d , i f a n y , o c c u p i e s e a c h d w e l l i n g a n d t h e p r i c e ; t h e v a l u e o f t h e l a t t e r b e i n g i n i t i a l i z e d a t z e r o . I n a d d i t i o n , a n a r r a y i n d i c a t i n g t h e s t a t u s o f e a c h h o u s e h o l d ' s p o t e n t i a l new d w e l l i n g i s g e n e r a t e d . T h e r e s p e c t i v e e l e m e n t o f t h i s a r r a y i s s e t e q u a l t o PN i f a h o u s e h o l d o c c u p i e s a new d w e l l i n g ; ' t o -1.0 i f t h e h o u s e h o l d i s u n a s s i g n e d ( f o r c e d o u t o f t h e m a r k e t ) . The s o l u t i o n p r o c e s s b e g i n s w i t h t h e s e l e c t i o n o f t h e h o u s e h o l d a t t h e t o p o f t h e " o r d e r e d u n a s s i g n e d " h o u s e h o l d s t a c k : t h i s s e l e c t e d h o u s e h o l d i s t e r m e d t h e " u n a s s i g n e d " h o u s e h o l d . The s i m p l i f i e d l o g i c o f t h e a l g o r i t h m i s ; 1. s e l e c t t h e d w e l l i n g number a t t h e t o p o f t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s " o r d e r e d d w e l l i n g " s t a c k a n d i n s o d o i n g d e l e t e i t f r o m t h e s t a c k . 2. a c h e c k i s made t o s e e i f t h e d w e l l i n g number i s ; a . f o r an e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g : t a k e o p t i o n 1. b . f o r a new d w e l l i n g : t a k e o p t i o n 2. c . a z e r o : t a k e o p t i o n 3. 3. t h e r e s p e c t i v e o p t i o n s i n v o l v e : * * o p t i o n 1: e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g . a . c h e c k t o s e e i f o c c u p i e d . b . 1 i_f n o t o c c u p i e d t h e r e p e c t i v e e l e m e n t s o f t h e " o c c u p a n c y " a r r a y a r e s e t t o t h e h o u s e h o l d number a n d t h e p r i c e t h a t t h e h o u s e h o l d w i l l p a y . The a l g o r i t h m t h e n r e t u r n s t o s e l e c t t h e n e x t h o u s e h o l d f r o m t h e " o r d e r e d u n a s s i g n e d " h o u s e h o l d s t a c k a n d s s t a r t s r e p e a t i n g t h e s t e p s . b.2 i_f_ o c c u p i e d a c o m p a r i s i o n i s made b e t w e e n t h e c u r r e n t p r i c e b i d a n d t h e p r i c e t h a t t h e u n a s s i g n e d h o u s e h o l d i s o f f e r i n g t o p a y : i f t h e o f f e r i s l e s s t h a n , o r e q u a l t o , t h e c u r r e n t p r i c e t h e c u r r e n t o c c u p a n t r e m a i n s a n d t h e u n a s s i g n e d h o u s e h o l d s e l e c t s t h e n e x t d w e l l i n g number a t t h e t o p o f i t s " o r d e r e d 390 d w e l l i n g " s t a c k - s t e p " 1 " - a n d t h e p r o c e s s c o n t i n u e s . : i f t h e o f f e r i s g r e a t e r t h a n t h e c u r r e n t p r i c e , t h e u n a s s i g n e d h o u s e h o l d o c c u p i e s t h e d w e l l i n g a n d t h e d i s p l a c e d h o u s e h o l d t h e n s e l e c t s t h e n e x t d w e l l i n g number a t t h e t o p o f i t s " o r d e r e d d w e l l i n g " s t a c k - s t e p " 1 " - a n d t h e p r o c e s s c o n t i n u e s . * * o p t i o n 2 : new d w e l l i n g . t h e r e s p e c t i v e e l e m e n t i n t h e "new d w e l l i n g " a r r a y i s s e t t o P N . The a l g o r i t h m t h e n r e t u r n s t o s e l e c t t h e n e x t h o u s e h o l d f r o m t h e " o r d e r e d u n a s s i g n e d " h o u s e h o l d s t a c k a n d c o n t i n u e s t h r o u g h t h e s t e p s . * * o p t i o n 3 : u n a s s i g n e d . The p r e s e n c e o f a z e r o i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e h o u s e h o l d c a n n o t c o n s u m e t h e m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f "new d w e l l i n g " s e r v i c e s . The h o u s e h o l d i s t r e a t e d a s u n a s s i g n a b l e , w i t h t h e p r o g r a m s e t t i n g t h e r e s p e c t i v e e l e m e n t o f t h e new d w e l l i n g a r r a y t o - 1 . , f o r f u t u r e r e f e r e n c e . The a l g o r i t h m t h e n c o n t i n u e s a s i n o p t i o n 2 . The e n d c o n d i t i o n o c c u r s when a l l h o u s e h o l d s i n t h e o r d e r e d u n a s s i g n e d h o u s e h o l d s t a c k h a v e b e e n p r o c e s s e d . The number o f i t e r a t i o n s o f t h e a l l o c a t i o n a l g o r i t h m h a s a f i n i t e u p p e r b o u n d , b e i n g t h e sum o f t h e e l e m e n t s i n t h e " o r d e r e d d w e l l i n g " s t a c k s . T h i s b o u n d r e s u l t s b e c a u s e on e a c h i t e r a t i o n a new e l e m e n t mus t be s e l e c t e d a n d o n c e s e l e c t e d i s d i s c a r d e d . A t r a c i n g o f e a c h i t e r a t i o n o f t h e a l l o c a t i o n a l g o r i t h m c a n be o u t p u t a s f o l l o w s ; t h e t r a c e b e i n g s e q u e n t i a l l y r o w - w i s e . * * * t r a c i n g HOUSEHOLD A S S I G M E N T s h h o l d d w e l l p r i c e h h o l d d w e l l p r i c e h h o l d d w e l l p r i c e 5 1 1 7 0 0 . 0 0 0 10 10 1 5 6 4 . 0 0 0 9 1 0 1 4 6 5 . 0 0 0 9 6 1 3 9 8 . 0 0 0 8 1 0 1 3 8 0 . 0 0 0 8 9 1 6 4 7 . 0 0 0 7 10 1 3 1 7 . 0 0 0 7 9 1 5 9 0 . 0 0 0 7 8 1 7 4 4 . 0 0 0 4 5 1 0 5 4 . 0 0 0 3 5 8 6 3 . 0 0 0 3 4 1 0 9 3 . 0 0 0 2 5 4 9 0 . 0 0 0 2 4 621 . 0 0 0 2 3 7 0 7 . 0 0 0 6 8 4 5 4 . 0 0 0 6 7 4 9 9 . 0 0 0 1 3 4 8 3 . 0 0 0 1 2 5 5 1 . 0 0 0 391 A 2 . 6 6 4 " A c t u a l " a n d " E x p e c t e d " E x t e r n a l i t i e s . W i t h t h i s m o d e l o n l y one c o n d i t i o n a l e x t e r n a l i t y f a c t o r ( r e l a t i v e w e a l t h W ( i z ) ) i s u s e d . T h i s f a c t o r i s c a l c u l a t e d a s : W ( i z ) = ( M Y ) z o n e / ( M Y ) c i t y w h e r e , (MY) i s t h e a v e r a g e h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e f o r t h e r e s p e c t i v e g r o u p i n g s . On e a c h i t e r a t i o n t h e " a c t u a l " a n d " e x p e c t e d " e x t e r n a l i t i e s a r e o u t p u t a s f o l l o w s ; * * * " A C T U A L " a n d " E X P E C T E D " E X T E R N A L I T I E S " A C T U A L " " E X P E C T E D " z o n e r e l a t i v e "#" r e l a t i v e "#" w e a l t h u n i t s w e a l t h u n i t s 1 1 . 3 8 6 7 5 . 0 . 7 0 0 6 5 . 2 0 . 6 1 3 3 5 . 1 . 2 9 9 4 5 . 3 1 . 0 0 0 0 0 . 1 . 0 1 9 8 0 . R o o t - M e a n - S q u a r e d - E r r o r : 0 . 1 6 1 7 The r o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d e r r o r ( R . M . S . E . ) s t a t i s t i c i s e m p l o y e d a s t h e i n d i c a t o r o f c o n v e r g e n c e b e t w e e n t h e " e x p e c t e d " a n d t h e " a c t u a l " e x t e r n a l i t i e s . The e r r o r t e r m i s c a l c u l a t e d b y summing t h e s q u a r e o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e " a c t u a l " a n d " e x p e c t e d " v a l u e s o v e r t h e z o n e s a n d d i v i d i n g t h e t o t a l by t w i c e t h e number o f z o n e s . z o n e s ( W ( i z ) a c t u a l - W ( i z ) e x p e c t e d ) * * 2 R . M . S . E . = 2 * number z o n e s The c o n v e r g e n c e t o l e r a n c e l e v e l i s s e t t o a R . M . S . E . o f 0 . 0 1 , b u t may be r e s e t v i a an i n p u t p a r a m e t e r . The p r o g r a m w i l l e x i t f r o m t h e " s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m " l o o p i f t h e R . M . S . E . i s l e s s t h a n t h e 392 t o l e r a n c e l e v e l , o t h e r w i s e t h e p r o g r a m w i l l l o o p t e n t i m e s b e f o r e e x i t i n g . On e x i t i n g f r o m t h e " s o l u t i o n " a l g o r i t h m l o o p t h e p r o g r a m t r a n s f e r s t o o u t p u t t h e f i n a l a l l o c a t i o n o f " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s t o b o t h e x i s t i n g a n d new " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s . U n a s s i g n e d h o u s e h o l d s a r e s i m i l a r l y r e p o r t e d . * * * A L L O C A T I O N o f HOUSEHOLDS e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s DWELLING 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 z o n e 1. 2 . 1 . 2 . 2 . 2 . 1 . 2 . 1 . 1 . h o u s e h o l d 5 1 2 3 4 9 6 7 8 10 t y p e 1 . 1 . 1 . 1 . 1 . 2 . 2 . 2 . 2 . 2 . u t i l i t y 1 5 7 . 6 6 . 8 6 . 1 1 8 . 1 2 9 . 1 0 2 . 4 9 . 1 0 3 . 1 0 3 . 1 0 4 . p r i c e 1 . 7 0 0 0 . 5 5 1 0 . 7 0 7 1 . 0 9 3 1 . 0 5 4 1 . 3 9 8 0 . 4 9 9 1 . 7 4 4 1 . 6 4 7 1 . 5 6 4 q u a n t i t y 5 0 . 1 0 1 . 1 2 9 . 1 6 1 . 2 3 4 . 5 0 . 1 0 1 . 1 2 9 . 1 6 1 . 2 3 4 . 8 5 . 0 5 5 . 7 91 . 2 1 7 6 . 0 2 4 6 . 6 6 9 . 9 5 0 . 4 2 2 5 . 0 2 6 5 . 2 3 6 6 . 0 * * * A L L O C A T I O N OF HOUSEHOLDS^ new d w e l l i n g s NO NEW DWELLINGS CREATED A d d i t i o n a l g r a p h i c a l p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e s o l u t i o n c o n d i t i o n s c a n a l s o be o u t p u t . I n t h e f o l l o w i n g e x a m p l e t h e t h r e e h o r i z o n t a l r o w s o f d o t s c o r r e s p o n d r e s p e c t i v e l y t o P N , t h e p r i c e o f new s e r v i c e s f o r a l t e r n a t i v e l y t h e o w n e r s a n d t h e r e n t e r s a n d P O , t h e o p e r a t i n g c o s t s . T h e y commence a t QM, t h e r e s p e c t i v e m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f new c o n s t r u c t i o n . 393 P r i c e 150 1 00 50 7 2 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 200 220 240 " Q " o f h o u s i n g P R I C E - Q U A N T I T Y c u r v e s : E x a m p l e S o l u t i o n A f t e r t h e s e o u t p u t s t h e p r o g r a m , when i n " c a l i b r a t i o n " m o d e , t r a n s f e r s t o c a l c u l a t e a n d o u t p u t t h e c a l i b r a t i o n e r r o r b e f o r e r e t u r n i n g f o r a d d i t i o n a l i n p u t ( S e c t i o n A 2 . 6 7 C a l i b r a t i o n M o d e ) . I n ' t h e a l t e r n a t i v e " b a s e " a n d " p o l i c y " modes t h e t r a n s f e r i s d e s c r i b e d i n t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g S e c t i o n s A 2 . 6 8 a n d A 2 . 6 9 . 394 A 2 . 6 7 M O D I F I E D m o d e l : C a l i b r a t i o n M o d e . The p r o g r a m i s p l a c e d i n " c a l i b r a t i o n mode" v i a t h e two a l t e r n a t i v e c o n t r o l p a r a m e t r s " 9 9 0 1 " f o r E X T c a l i b r a t i o n a n d " 9 9 0 2 " f o r BETA c a l i b r a t i o n s . C a l i b r a t i o n i n v o l v e s t e s t i n g " s o l u t i o n " c o n d i t i o n s g e n e r a t e d u n d e r d i f f e r e n t b e h a v i o u r a l p a r a m e t e r s w i t h " a c t u a l " m a r k e t c o n d i t i o n s . I n t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l f i v e c r i t e r i o n s e t s b a s e d on z o n a l v a l u e s a r e u s e d . 1. a v e r a g e p r i c e p e r u n i t o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s 2 . t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f h o u s e h o l d s by t y p e 3 . a v e r a g e h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e 4 . t h e u t i l i z a t i o n o f t h e e x i s t i n g s t o c k 5 . t h e a v e r a g e q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s The summary s t a t i s t i c u s e d t o i n d i c a t e t h e " g o o d n e s s - o f - f i t " o f t h e m o d e l i s t e r m e d t h e "mean e r r o r " . Two mean y e r r o r s t a t i s t i c s a r e d e r i v e d f o r e a c h " s o l u t i o n " c o n d i t i o n b y : 1. c a l c u l a t i n g on a z o n a l b a s i s t h e d i f f e r e n c e b e t w e e n t h e " a c t u a l " a n d " s o l u t i o n " means f o r p r i c e , q u a n t i t y , i n c o m e , u t i l i z a t i o n a n d t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f h o u s e h o l d s by T Y P E g r o u p ( n o r m a l l y e i g h t ) . 2 . c a l c u l a t i n g t h e r o o t - m e a n - a q u a r e e r r o r s f o r e a c h o f t h e s e g r o u p s by summing t h e s q u a r e s o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e a n d d i v i d i n g t h e sum by t w i c e t h e n u m b e r o f z o n e s . 3 . w e i g h t i n g e a c h o f t h e g r o u p s R . M . S . E . by t h e u n w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e o f t h e z o n a l means f o r t h a t g r o u p , a n d 4 . t h e n t h e s e w e i g h t e d R . M . S . E . ' s a r e a v e r a g e d t o o b t a i n t h e f i n a l summary m e a s u r e s . The f i r s t "mean e r r o r " v a l u e o u t p u t c o r r e s p o n d s t o t h e a v e r a g e o f t h e w e i g h t e d R . M . S . E . s f o r p r i c e s , q u a n t i t i e s , i n c o m e s a n d u t i l i z a t i o n : t h e s e c o n d f o r t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n by h o u s e h o l d T Y P E . The c a l i b r a t i o n o u t p u t w h i c h i n c l u d e s t h e a v e r a g e z o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a n d t h e c a l i b r a t i o n e r r o r s i s a s f o l l o w s : 395 * * * C A L I B R A T I O N o u t p u t : t e s t s i m u l a t i o n p r o g * * * AVERAGE " a c t u a l " a n d " s o l u t i o n " ZONAL C H A R A C T E R I S T I C S p a r a m e t e r v a l u e s : EXT1 0 . 5 0 : E X T 2 0 . 5 0 : B 1 R 0 . 0 : B 2 R 0 . 0 : B 1 0 0 . 0 : B 2 0 p r i c e i n c o m e u s a g e " Q " ( z o n e 1) a c t u a l 1 .10 1 2 0 0 0 . 0 . 7 5 2 1 0 . c a l c . 1 .27 18231 . 1 . 0 0 1 3 5 . ( z o n e 2) a c t u a l 1 .65 7 2 3 0 . 0 . 8 5 1 7 0 . c a l c . 1 .15 8 0 6 3 . 1 . 0 0 1 3 5 . ( z o n e 3) a c t u a l 1.81 2 8 1 4 0 . 0 . 0 3 0 0 . c a l c . 0 . 0 0 . 0 . 0 0 . * * * C A L I B R A T I O N ERRORS p r i c e i n c o m e u s a g e " Q " R . M . S . E . . 3 1 4 5 4 8 0 5 . 6 0 . 0 4 9 5 1 . 9 R . M . S . E . . 2 6 0 3 0 . 3 6 5 5 0 . 0 4 9 0 . 3 8 4 ( w e i g h t e d ) MEAN ERRORS 0 . 2 6 4 7 T h i s o u t p u t i s p r o v i d e d a u t o m a t i c a l l y a t t h e e n d o f e a c h p a r a m e t e r i t e r a t i o n l o o p ; t h e s t a t u s o f t h e i t e r a t e d p a r a m e t e r s b e i n g i n d i c a t e d i n t h e o u t p u t t a b l e . On t e r m i n a t i o n o f t h e p a r a m e t e r i t e r a t i o n l o o p c o n t r o l i s t r a n s f e r r e d e i t h e r t o i n p u t a d d i t i o n a l d a t a o r an " e n d - o f - f i l e " o r c o n t r o l p a r a m e t e r " 9 9 9 9 " t e r m i n a t e s p r o g r a m e x e c u t i o n . A 2 . 6 8 M O D I F I E D m o d e l : B a s e Mode " B a s e " mode r u n s a r e u s e d t o g e n e r a t e a d a t a s e t f o r i n p u t d u r i n g " p o l i c y " r u n s t h a t a l l o w s t h e i n t e r n a l c a l c u l a t i o n o f c o m p a r a t i v e s t a t i s t i c s t h a t h i g h l i g h t t h e e f f e c t s o f t h e m a r k e t i n t e r v e n t i o n u n d e r s t u d y . A " b a s e " mode r u n i s i n d i c a t e d t o t h e p r o g r a m by t h e c o n t r o l p a r a m e t e r "9903". I n " b a s e " mode t h e BETA c a l i b r a t i o n d a t a s e t i s e m p l o y e d a s i n p u t a l o n g w i t h t h e f i n a l l y 396 s e l e c t e d s e t o f t h e c a l i b r a t i o n p a r a m e t e r s . The p r o g r a m o u t p u t s t o f i l e o r c a r d s a t i t l e r e c o r d c a r d a n d t h e d a t a r e c o r d s f o r t h e h o u s e h o l d T Y P E s , A L P H A S a n d a v e r a g e i n c o m e s , t h e z o n a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s a n d r e c o r d s f o r e a c h 1961 " m o d e l " e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g a n d 1971 " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d . The l a t t e r s e t o f r e c o r d s c o n t a i n s a d d i t i o n a l d a t a on t h e s o l u t i o n c o n d i t i o n s . O u t p u t f o r e a c h " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d i s t h e i n p u t " a c t u a l " i n c o m e a n d h o u s e h o l d T Y P E , t o g e t h e r w i t h t h e a d d i t i o n a l d a t a ; number o f t h e d w e l l i n g o c c u p i e d , p r i c e p a i d p e r u n i t o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e , t h e q u a n t i t y c o n s u m e d a n d t h e u t i l i t y . A new " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g i s i n d i c a t e d b y a " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g number o f 9 9 9 : a h o u s e h o l d f o r c e d t o d o u b l e - u p i s i n d i c a t e d by a z e r o . The " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d c o m p o n e n t o f t h e " p o l i c y " d a t a s e t g e n e r a t e d f o r t h e e x a m p l e d a t a c o u l d be a s f o l l o w s ; 1001 1527 1 - 2 1 7 0 00 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 1002 2 2 3 5 1 102 60 1 1 . 4 6 6 5 3 . 4 5 2 . 8 1003 3938 1 900 191 21 . 4 0 4 1 0 0 . 4 9 9 . 6 1004 5616 1 3309 731 31 . 3 7 9 1 2 4 . 1 1 0 7 . 6 1 0 0 5 2 3 8 2 9 1 4 4 9 4 0 2 7 8 4 6 51 . 4 2 6 2 3 7 . 71 6 0 . 3 1006 2235 2 2814 628 00 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 1007 9779 2 6334 1 556 71 . 6 4 1 1 2 5 . 7 1 0 3 . 3 1 0 0 8 1 1 2 7 5 2 8173 1 983 81 . 5 5 5 1 4 8 . 41 0 5 . 0 1 0 0 9 1 3 9 8 6 2 1 1 7 2 4 2991 91 . 4 9 3 1 7 4 . 71 0 5 . 0 1 0 1 0 1 6 8 2 7 2 1 4 6 4 8 4236 101 . 3 7 8 2 2 5 . 51 0 6 . 8 A 2 . 6 9 M O D I F I E D m o d e l : P o l i c y Mode The a i m i n c a l i b r a t i n g t h e m o d e l s i s t o e v a l u a t e t h e a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c y o p t i o n s . T h i s V E R S I O N o f t h e M O D I F I E D m o d e l h a s p o l i c y c a p a b i l i t i e s d i r e c t l y c o m p a r a b l e t o t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l a n d c o n t a i n s " p o l i c y " o p t i o n s c a p a b l e o f a n a l y s i n g t h e f o l l o w i n g p o l i c y t y p e s ; i n c o m e s u b s i d y , i n - k i n d s u b s i d y , p r i c e s u b s i d y , d i r e c t s u b s i d y a n d p u b l i c h o u s i n g . W i t h t h e f i r s t f o u r o p t i o n s , t h e 397 p o l i c i e s c a n be d i r e c t e d t o e i t h e r new o r e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s , o r a c o m b i n a t i o n o f b o t h , w i t h h o u s e h o l d e l i g i b i l i t y b e i n g r e g u l a t e d by " a c t u a l " i n c o m e , T Y P E a n d e a r m a r k i n g . No p r o v i s i o n h a s b e e n made t o d i f f e r e n t i a t e on a t e n u r e b a s i s . The s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f t h e s u b s i d y amount t o t h e p r o g r a m i s b a s e d on a s e t o f e q u a t i o n s ; t h e o p t i o n a v a i l a b l e v a r y i n g w i t h t h e s u b s i d y m o d e . I n a d d i t i o n t o i n c o r p o r a t i n g d i f f e r e n t p a r a m e t e r v a l u e s w i t h e a c h o f t h e d i f f e r e n t e q u a t i o n t y p e s , up t o f o u r e q u a t i o n s c a n be " s t a c k e d " t o c r e a t e r e l a t i v e l y c o m p l e x " c o n d i t i o n a l " p r o g r a m s s u c h a s a R e n t T r i a n g l e o r a C o n d i t i o n a l H o u s i n g A l l o w a n c e P r o g r a m . The p o l i c y mode o p t i o n s , w i t h t h e a v a i l a b l e e q u a t i o n s , a r e : 1. i n c o m e s u b s i d y 1.2 SUB = POL1 * [ P 0 L 3 - POL4 * A Y ] 2 . i n - k i n d s u b s i d y 2 . 1 SUB = POL1 * [ P 0 L 2 * P j * Q j - POL4 * A Y ] 2 . 2 SUB = P0L1 * [ P 0 L 3 - POL 4 * A Y ] 2 . 3 SUB = POL1 * [ P O L 2 * P j * Q j - POL5 * P j * Q j ] 2 . 4 SUB = POL1 * [ P 0 L 3 - POL 5 * P j * Q j ] 2 . 5 SUB = P0L1 * [ P 0 L 2 * P j * Q j - P 0 L 5 * A Y * P j * Q j ] 2 . 6 SUB = POL1 * [ P 0 L 3 - POL 5 * AY * P j * Q j ] 3 . p r i c e s u b s i d y 3 .1 SUB = Q j * [ ( P O - P O L 1 ) + (PC - P O L 2 ) ] . . . f o r new SUB = Q j * [ ( P O - P O L 3 ) + (PC - P O L 4 ) ] . . . f o r e x i s t i n g 4 . d i r e c t demand s u b s i d y 4 . 1 SUB = POL 1 * [POL2 * P j * Q j - P 0 L 4 * A Y ] 4 . 2 SUB = POL1 * [ P 0 L 3 - POL4 * A Y ] 398 5 . d i r e c t s u p p l y s u b s i d y 5 .1 SUB = P0L1 * [ P 0 L 2 * P j * Q j - P 0 L 4 * A Y ] 5 . 2 SUB = P0L1 * [ P 0 L 3 - P 0 L 4 * A Y ] 2 0 . c o n s t r a i n e d MINIMUM q u a n t i t y s u b s i d y 2 0 . 1 i n c o m e s u b s i d y t o consume M I N I M U M q u a n t i t y ( P O l 1 , P O L 2 ) 2 0 . 2 i n - k i n d s u b s i d y t o consume MINIMUM q u a n t i t y ( P O l 1 , P O L 2 ) 2 0 . 3 d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d s u b s i d y a t MINIMUM q u a n t i t y ( P O l 1 , P O L 2 ) 2 0 . 4 d i r e c t q u a n t i t y s u b s i d y a t MINIMUM q u a n t i t y ( P O l 1 , P O L 2 ) 2 0 . 5 d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e s u b s i d y a t MINIMUM q u a n t i t y ( P O l 1 , P O L 2 ) 2 0 . 6 d i r e c t p r i c e s u b s i d y a t MINIMUM q u a n t i t y ( P O l 1 , P O L 2 ) T h e s e a r e t h e o p t i o n s u t i l i z e d i n g e n e r a t i n g t h e p o l i c y s i m u l a t i o n s r e p o r t e d i n C h a p t e r 10 a s f o r t h e M O D I F I E D m o d e l . POL1 i s u s e d t o i n d i c a t e t h e m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y f o r t h e r e n t a l s e c t o r ; POL2 t h e m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y f o r t h e o w n e r - o c c u p i e r s . I n a d d i t i o n , e l i g i b i l i t y may be s p e c i f i e d v i a A I L I M ( P O L 6 ) a n d a m i n i m u m c o n s u m p t i o n l e v e l ( e a r m a r k i n g r e q u i r e m e n t ) v i a Q M I N . W i t h t h e i n - k i n d p o l i c y o p t i o n t h e e q u a t i o n u s e d may be d i r e c t l y s p e c i f i e d , o r s e l e c t e d by t h e p r o g r a m i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h t h e f o l l o w i n g l o g i c : i f POL4 a n d POL5 b o t h n o n - z e r o s e l e c t 5 o r 6 i f POL4 z e r o s e l e c t 3 o r 4 i f P O L 5 z e r o s e l e c t 1 o r 2 i f P O L 5 n o n - z e r o s e l e c t 1, 3 o r 5 T h a t i s , i f POL2 n o n - z e r o , POL3 i s d i s r e g a r d e d . The a d d i t i o n a l i n p u t d a t a r e c o r d s a v a i l a b l e f o r " p o l i c y " s i m u l a t i o n s a r e : " 8 1 0 _ " G e n e r a l P o l i c y p a r a m e t e r s " 8 2 0 1 " E l i g i b l e H o u s e h o l d s by T Y P E " 8 3 0 1 " P u b l i c H o u s i n g R e c i p i e n t s 399 A t l e a s t one " 8 1 0 _ " c a r d i s r e q u i r e d f o r a l l " p o l i c y " r u n s ; t h e " 8 2 0 0 " a n d " 8 3 0 0 " c a r d s a r e o p t i o n a l . D e t a i l s o f t h e s e i n p u t r e c o r d s a r e : " 8 1 0 _ " G e n e r a l P o l i c y P a r a m e t e r s T h i s i n p u t r e c o r d c o n t a i n s e l e v e n ( 1 1 ) d a t a f i e l d s a n d may be u s e d f o r up t o f o u r d i f f e r e n t e q u a t i o n s i n one p o l i c y r u n . The e q u a t i o n number i s i d e n t i f i e d i n c o l u m n 4 . F i e l d s c o r r e s p o n d t o O P T I O N , P O L L , P O L 2 , P O L 3 , P O L 4 , P O L 5 , A I L I M , Q M I N , QMAX, RMIN a n d RMAX w i t h t h e f i r s t s i x a s d e t a i l e d i n t h e i n d i v i d u a l p o l i c y e q u a t i o n s . The o t h e r p a r a m e t e r s a r e u s e d f o r s p e c i a l a p p l i c a t i o n s a s d e t a i l e d f o l l o w i n g , f i e l d . O P T I O N d a t a v a l u e s : 1 . 2 . 3 . 4 . 5 . 6. 7. 8 . 9 . 1 0 . 1 1 . 1 2 . 1 3 . 1 4 . 1 5 . i n c o m e s u b s i d y (new a n d e x i s t i n g ) i n c o m e s u b s i d y ( e x i s t i n g o n l y ) i n c o m e s u b s i d y (new o n l y ) i n - k i n d s u b s i d y (new a n d e x i s t i n g ) i n - k i n d s u b s i d y ( e x i s t i n g o n l y ) i n - k i n d s u b s i d y (new o n l y ) p r i c e s u b s i d y (new a n d e x i s t i n g ) ( e x i s t i n g o n l y ) (new o n l y ) s u b s i d y (new a n d e x i s t i n g ) s u b s i d y s u b s i d y s u b s i d y s u b s i d y s u b s i d y p r i c e s u b s i d y p r i c e s u b s i d y d i r e c t demand d i r e c t d i r e c t d i r e c t d i r e c t d i r e c t demand demand s u p p l y s u p p l y s u p p l y ( e x i s t i n g o n l y ) (new o n l y ) (new a n d e x i s t i n g ) ( e x i s t i n g o n l y ) (new o n l y ) 2 0 . c o n s t r a i n e d MINIMUM (new a n d e x i s t i n g ) 2 1 . c o n s t r a i n e d MINIMUM ( e x i s t i n g o n l y ) 2 2 . c o n s t r a i n e d MINIMUM (new o n l y ) n o t e : i f o n l y one e q u a t i o n i s u s e d ( " 8 1 0 1 " ) t h e r e i s no l i m i t on t h e s u b s i d y amoun t o t h e r t h a n t h a t d i c t a t e d by A I L I M ( t h e e l i g i b l e i n c o m e l i m i t ) a n d QMIN ( t h e e a r m a r k i n g c o n s t r a i n t ) . I f more t h a n one e q u a t i o n i s u s e d ( " 8 1 0 2 " - " 8 1 0 4 " ) t h e n t h e a d d i t i o n a l e q u a t i o n s a c t a s c o n s t r a i n t s on t h e s u b s i d y amount s u c h t h a t a t t h e s o l u t i o n ( P j , Q j ) t h e s u b s i d y g i v e n by a n e q u a t i o n m u s t be l e s s t h a n o r e q u a l t o t h a t p r o v i d e d by t h e n e x t e q u a t i o n t o be a c c e p t a b l e . 400 f i e l d s ( 2 - 6 ) t h e s e f i e l d s c o r r e s p o n d t o POL1 t h r o u g h P O L 5 a s d e t a i l e d a b o v e . f i e l d . 7 . A I L I M , a c t u a l a n n u a l i n c o m e e l i g i b i l i t y l i m i t , i . e . " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d ' s a c t u a l i n c o m e , m u s t be l e s s t h a n o r e q u a l t o t h i s amoun t t o be e l i g i b l e f o r a s u b s i d y . I f z e r o , a l l h o u s e h o l d s a r e e l i g i b l e . f i e l d 8 Q M I N , t h e e a r m a r k i n g r e q u i r e m e n t . A h o u s e h o l d mus t c o n s u m e a q u a n t i t y g r e a t e r t h a n o r e q u a l t o t h i s f i e l d . 9 .QMAX . d e s i g n a t e d f o r u s e a s a maximum q u a n t i t y c o n s t r a i n t f i e l d , . 10 . R M I N . d e s i g n a t e d f o r u s e a s a m i n i m u m r e n t a l / e x p e n d i t u r e . c o n s t r a i n t f i e l d . 11 . R M A X . maximum r e n t c o n s t r a i n t a m o u n t t o be e l i g i b l e f o r a s u b s i d y . " 8 2 0 0 " E L I G I B L E HOUSEHOLDS by T Y P E T h i s i n p u t r e c o r d c o n t a i n s t e n f i e l d s c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o t h e t e n h o u s e h o l d T Y P E s . d e f a u l t v a l u e : a l l h o u s e h o l d s e l i g i b l e f o r a s u b s i d y d a t a o p t i o n s : 1. 0 f o r i n e l i g i b l e h o u s e h o l d t y p e s 2 . 1 f o r e l i g i b l e h o u s e h o l d t y p e s 401 " 8 3 0 0 " P U B L I C HOUSING R E C I P I E N T S i T h i s i n p u t r e c o r d c o n t a i n s n i n e f i e l d s ; t h e f i r s t b e i n g a c o n t r o l s w i t c h w h i l e t h e r e m a i n i n g e i g h t a r e f o r t h e n u m b e r s o f h o u s e h o l d s f o r c e d t o t a k e new c o n s t r u c t i o n , a n d t h e r e f o r e n o n - c o m p e t i t i v e . S u c h h o u s e h o l d s a r e i n d i c a t e d by a s u b s i d y t y p e c o d e " 9 9 " i n t h e o u t p u t d a t a . d e f a u l t v a l u e : o p t i o n o f f f i e i d 1 ( 8 - 9 ) c o n t r o l s w i t c h d a t a o p t i o n s : 1. 0 i f d a t a n o t t o be 2 . 1 i f r e q u i r e o p t i o n c o n s i d e r e d p u b l i c h o u s i n g r e c i p i e n t s d a t a o p t i o n s : v a l i d h o u s e h o l d number i n t h e r a n g e o f 1 t h r o u g h 100 An i n c o m e s u b s i d y t o b o t h new a n d e x i s t i n g " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s ( p o l i c y o p t i o n 1) i s shown i n t h i s f o l l o w i n g e x a m p l e . The s u b s i d y i s t o be 0 . 7 5 o f t h e i n c o m e " g a p " w h e r e i n c o m e i s 25% o f a c t u a l i n c o m e . No r e s t r i c t i o n i s t o be p l a c e d on h o u s e h o l d e l i g i b i l i t y , b u t " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d " 6 " i s t r e a t e d a s a p u b l i c h o u s i n g r e c i p i e n t . The r e q u i r e d " p o l i c y " i n p u t r e c o r d s a r e : 8-101 1_0 . 75 1 0 . 2 5 8200 1 1 8300 1 6 A f t e r t h e b a s i c d a t a r e v i e w t h e s e a d d i t i o n a l r e c o r d s a r e o u t p u t a s f o l l o w s : 402 * * * "8 P O L I C Y PARAMETERS o p t i o n POL1 1.1 0 . 7 5 POL 2 1 . 0 0 POL 3 0 . 0 POL 4 0 . 2 5 POL 5 0 . 0 POL 6 0 . 0 POL 7 0 . 0 E L I G I B I L I T Y by T Y P E 1 2 1 . 1 . P U B L I C H O U S I N G : o p t i o n 6 0 A 2 . 6 9 1 S i m u l a t i o n o f S u b s i d y O p t i o n s W i t h t h e M O D I F I E D m o d e l t h e i n c o m e c o n s t r a i n t a n d e l i g i b i l i t y i s b a s e d on t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s t o t a l g r o s s i n c o m e : a n n u a l a f t e r t a x i n c o m e p l u s t a x e s d i v i d e d b y 1 2 . The o v e r a l l a p p r o a c h t o c o m p u t i n g s u b s i d i e s f o l l o w s t h a t f o r t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l . I n e v a l u a t i n g s u b s i d y o p t i o n s , t h e p r o g r a m f i r s t l y c a l c u l a t e s t h e i n t e r c e p t b e t w e e n t h e u n s u b s i d i s e d demand a n d s u p p l y c u r v e s a n d c a l c u l a t e s t h e p a r t i a l u t i l i t y . I t t h e n a t t e m p t s ( f o r e l i g i b l e h o u s e h o l d s ) t o s o l v e f o r e a c h o f t h e f o u r p o t e n t i a l s u b s i d y e q u a t i o n s i n t u r n . F o r b o t h new a n d e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s t h e s o l u t i o n c o n d i t i o n s a r e g e n e r a t e d u s i n g a n u m e r i c a l s o l u t i o n t e c h n i q u e . An a d d i t i o n a l i t e r a t i o n l o o p mus t be i n c l u d e d t o a l l o w t h e c o n s i d e r a t i o n o f t h e d e p e n d a n c e o f t h e e x p e n d i t u r e s h a r e on t h e i n c o m e . C o n s e q u e n t l y , w i t h e a c h c o m p u t e d s u b s i d y a m o u n t t h e e x p e n d i t u r e s h a r e mus t be r e c o m p u t e d t o r e f l e c t t h e a l t e r n a t i v e i n c o m e l e v e l ( t h e f o r m o f t h e r e c o m p u t a t ' i o n i s c o n d i t i o n a l on t h e s u b s i d y t y p e ) . A f t e r a c h e c k on e a r m a r k i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s t h e amoun t o f t h e s u b s i d y i s c a l c u l a t e d by s u b s t i t u t i n g t h e r e s p e c t i v e e q u a t i o n s a s o u t l i n e d i n t h e p r e v i o u s S e c t i o n . T h i s t h e n a l l o w s t h e c a l c u l a t i o n o f t o t a l i n c o m e s a n d t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g p a r t i a l 403 u t i l i t i e s . I f o n l y a s i n g l e s u b s i d y e q u a t i o n i s u s e d t h e t o t a l p a r t i a l u t i l i t i e s w i t h a n d w i t h o u t t h e s u b s i d y a r e c o m p a r e d ; t h e o p t i o n w i t h t h e h i g h e s t p a r t i a l u t i l i t y i s s e l e c t e d . I f more t h a n one s u b s i d y e q u a t i o n i s u s e d t h e s u b s e q u e n t e q u a t i o n s a c t a s u p p e r b o u n d s on t h e maximum s u b s i d y a m o u n t . T h i s i s a c h i e v e d b y f i r s t l y c a l c u l a t i n g t h e s u b s i d y amount u n d e r t h e new e q u a t i o n f o r t h e s o l u t i o n p r i c e a n d q u a n t i t y a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e p r e v i o u s e q u a t i o n ( e . g . p r i c e a n d q u a n t i t y f r o m e q u a t i o n 1 a r e s u b s t i t u t e d i n t o s u b s i d y e q u a t i o n 2 ) . I f t h i s amount i s g r e a t e r t h a n o r e q u a l t o t h e p r e v i o u s l y c a l c u l a t e d amoun t t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s s u b s i d y amoun t i s t a k e n a s f o r t h e p r e v i o u s e q u a t i o n . O t h e r w i s e , i f t h e new e q u a t i o n i s n o t t h e l a s t e q u a t i o n i n t h e s e t a new s o l u t i o n p r i c e a n d q u a n t i t y i s c a l c u l a t e d a n d t h e p r o c e s s r e p e a t e d . I f t h e new e q u a t i o n i s t h e l a s t , t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s s u b s i d y amoun t i s s i m p l y s e t t o z e r o . F o r " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d s d e s i g n a t e d a s new p u b l i c h o u s i n g r e c i p i e n t s , a l l a r r a y e l e m e n t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e e x i s t i n g " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s a r e s e t t o z e r o . I f t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d i s n o t e l i g i b l e f o r a new d w e l l i n g , QN i s l e s s t h a n QM, i t i s a s s i g n e d a QN v a l u e e q u a l t o QM. I n t h i s m a n n e r , i t s d w e l l i n g s t a c k c o n t a i n s o n l y a new " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g f o r w h i c h t h e r e i s no c o m p e t i t i o n . A s p e c i a l o p t i o n h a s b e e n i n c o r p o r a t e d t o a i d i n t h e e f f i c i e n t c o m p u t a t i o n o f t h e s u b s i d y c o s t s when c o m p a r i n g a l t e r n a t i v e p o l i c y f o r m s . s u p p o r t i n g a c o n s t a n t m i n i m u m s t a n d a r d o f h o u s i n g r e f l e c t e d a s a m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y . The r e q u i r e d s u b s i d y amoun t u n d e r t h e d e s i g n a t e d f o r m o f s u b s i d y i s c o m p u t e d w i t h o u t t h e u s e o f t h e s p e c i a l p a r a m e t e r e d e q u a t i o n s . The a l t e r n a t i v e g r a p h i c a l r e p r e s e n t a t i o n o f t h e s e s i x f o r m s o f i n t e r v e n t i o n a r e d e t a i l e d i n 404 F i g u r e 9 . 0 2 w i t h t h e m a t h e m a t i c a l f o r m u l a t i o n i n c l u d e d a s S e c t i o n 9 . 3 1 . The s u b s i d y amoun t i s c o m p u t e d a s t h e a d d i t i o n a l c a s h r e q u i r e d t o s h i f t t h e h o u s e h o l d f r o m i t s u n s u b s i d i s e d l e v e l o f c o n s u m p t i o n t o consume by c h o i c e t h e r e q u i r e d m i n i m u m q u a n t i t y o f h o u s i n g i n a manne r c o m p a r a b l e t o t h a t u s e d f o r t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l . A 2 . 6 9 2 S u b s i d y C a l c u l a t i o n A f t e r " the c a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e p r i c e - q u a n t i t y i n t e r c e p t s a n d t h e a s s o c i a t e d p a r t i a l u t i l i t i e s , t h e p r o g r a m t r a n s f e r s i n t o t h e s t a n d a r d s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m l o o p . S i n c e t h e a m o u n t s i n t h e m a j o r i t y o f p o l i c i e s a r e a f u n c t i o n o f t h e s o l u t i o n c o n d i t i o n s , on e x i t i n g f r o m t h e a l l o c a t i o n a l g o r i t h m t h e p r o g r a m c a l c u l a t e s t h e s u b s i d y T Y P E a n d amoun t a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e a c h h o u s e h o l d . The e x c e p t i o n i s t h a t u n d e r t h e c o n s t r a i n e d MINIMUM q u a n t i t y o p t i o n t h e s u b s i d y a m o u n t i s c o m p u t e d d i r e c t l y . T h i s a d d i t i o n a l i n f o r m a t i o n i s o u t p u t a s a p a r t o f t h e A L L O C A T I O N o f HOUSEHOLDS d a t a . I n a d d i t i o n t h i s d a t a i s o u t p u t i n c o n j u n c t i o n w i t h t h e i n c o m e d a t a o r d e r e d by " a c t u a l " h o u s e h o l d i n c o m e , w i t h t h e f o r m o f t h e s u b s i d y i n d i c a t e d by a c o d e number a s f o r t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l . A 2 . 6 9 3 C a l c u l a t i o n o f S u b s i d y I m p a c t To a i d i n e v a l u a t i n g t h e m a r k e t e f f e c t s o f t h e i n p u t p o l i c y t h e p r o g r a m c a l c u l a t e s d a t a i n d i c a t i n g c h a n g e s f r o m t h e m a r k e t s t a t e g e n e r a t e d i n t h e " b a s e " mode r u n , a n d i n p u t a s e l e m e n t s o f t h e " m o d e l " h o u s e h o l d r e c o r d s . I n a d d i t i o n t o g e n e r a l r e s u l t s f o r t h e C M . A . a t l a r g e , s e l e c t e d s t a t i s t i c s a r e c a l c u l a t e d f o r a l l r e c i p i e n t s , g r o u p i n g s o f t h e r e c i p i e n t s a n d t h e l o w e s t i n c o m e n o n -r e c i p i e n t s . The s i z e o f t h e s p e c i a l g r o u p s i s t a k e n a s t h e s m a l l e r o f e i t h e r h a l f o f t h e r e c i p i e n t g r o u p ( r e c i p i e n t o r n o n - r e c i p i e n t ) , 405 o r t e n . T h e n a t u r e o f t h e o u t p u t i s a s f o r t h e O R I G I N A L m o d e l . 406 S E C T I O N A 3 : MODEL I M P L E M E N T A T I O N DATA a n d R E S U L T S I n t h e f o l l o w i n g S E C T I O N t h e s t a t i s t i c s a n d s e l e c t e d r e s u l t s d e r i v e d d u r i n g t h e i n i t i a l i z a t i o n o f t h e two M O D E L S , f o r t h e e i g h t s e l e c t e d C M A s , a r e p r e s e n t e d . The e i g h t CMAs a r e : 1. C A L G A R Y 2 . K I T C H E N E R 3 . QUEBEC C I T Y 4 . S T . J O H N ' S 5 . SASKATOON 6 . SUDBURY 7 . VANCOUVER 8 . W I N N I P E G The i n d i v i d u a l F i g u r e s p r e s e n t e d f o r e a c h C M A . a r e d e t a i l e d on t h e f o l l o w i n g p a g e s . 407 S E C T I O N A 3 : D E R I V E D CMA DATA a n d R E S U L T S . A 3 . **-1 C A L G A R Y A3 : 0 1 - 1 Z o n a l C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (5 Z o n e s ) A3 : 0 2 - 1 C l u s t e r i n g (5 Z o n e s ) A 3 : 0 3 - 1 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : H o u s e h o l d C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s A 3 : 0 4 - 1 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 6 1 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s A3 : 0 5 - 1 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 6 1 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s A3 : 0 6 - 1 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s [GAMMA c a l i b r a t i o n s e t ] A3 : 0 7 - 1 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s [BETA c a l i b r a t i o n s e t ] A3 : 0 8 - 1 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s A3 : 0 9 - 1 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : H o u s e h o l d A L P H A S A 3 : 1 0 - 1 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : P r i c e s , C o s t s a n d Q u a n t i t i e s A3 : 1 1- 1 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : " G A M M A " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a A3 : 1 2 - 1 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : " B E T A " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a A3 : 1 3 - 1 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : P o l i c y D a t a s e t A3 : 1 4 - 1 TENURE M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s f o r T r a n s l o g A3 : 1 5 - 1 TENURE M O D E L : T r a n s l o g I n p u t V a r i a b l e s S t a t i s t i c s A3 : 1 6 -1 TENURE MODEL E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e E s t i m a t e s [ a l l i n c o m e g r o u p s ] A3 : 1 7 - 1 TENURE M O D E L : E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e E s t i m a t e s [ b e l o w mean i n c o m e s ] A3 : 1 8 -1 TENURE MODEL E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e Estimates [ a b o v e mean i n c o m e s ] A3 : 1 9 - 1 TENURE MODEL E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e E s t i m a t e s [ q u a r t i l e 1] A3 : 2 0 - 1 TENURE M O D E L : E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e E s t i m a t e s [ q u a r t i l e 2 ] A3 : 2 1 - 1 TENURE M O D E L : E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e E s t i m a t e s [ q u a r t i l e 3 ] A3 : 2 2 - 1 TENURE M O D E L : E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e E s t i m a t e s [ q u a r t i l e 4 ] A3 : 2 3 - 1 TENURE M O D E L : I n c o m e a n d P r i c e E l a s t i c i t i e s A3 : 2 4 - 1 TENURE M O D E L : L o g L i k e l i h o o d V a l u e s [ T e s t o f u n i t y i n c o m e e l a s t i c i t y ] A3 : 2 5 - 1 TENURE M O D E L : " D e m a n d " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a A3 : 2 6 - 1 TENURE M O D E L : " S u p p l y " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a A3 : 2 7 - 1 TENURE M O D E L : P o l i c y D a t a s e t 408 S E C T I O N A 3 : D E R I V E D CMA DATA a n d R E S U L T S . A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A 3 ; A 3 : A 3 : A 3 : * * - 2 K I T C H E N E R 0 1 - 2 Z o n a l C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (5 Z o n e s ) 0 2 - 2 C l u s t e r i n g (5 Z o n e s ) 0 3 - 2 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : H o u s e h o l d C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 0 4 - 2 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 6 1 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 0 5 - 2 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 6 1 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s 0 6 - 2 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s [GAMMA c a l i b r a t i o n s e t ] 0 7 - 2 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s [ B E T A c a l i b r a t i o n s e t ] 0 8 - 2 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s 0 9 - 2 O R I G I N A L MODEL h o u s e h o l d A L P H A S 1 0 - 2 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : P r i c e s , C o s t s a n d Q u a n t i t i e s 1 1 - 2 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : " G A M M A " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 1 2 - 2 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : " B E T A " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 1 3 - 2 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : P o l i c y D a t a s e t 1 4 - 2 TENURE M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s f o r T r a n s l o g 1 5 - 2 TENURE M O D E L : T r a n s l o g I n p u t V a r i a b l e s S t a t i s t i c s 1 6 - 2 TENURE 1 7 - 2 TENURE 1 8 - 2 TENURE 1 9 - 2 TENURE 2 0 - 2 TENURE 2 1 - 2 TENURE 2 2 - 2 TENURE MODEL [ MODEL [ MODEL [ MODEL [ MODEL [ MODEL [ MODEL [ : E x p e a l l i : E x p e b e l o w : E x p e a b o v e : E x p e q u a r t : E x p e q u a r t : E x p e q u a r t : E x p e q u a r t n d i t u r e ncome g n d i t u r e mean i n d i t u r e mean i n d i t u r e i l e 1 ] n d i t u r e i l e 2 ] n d i t u r e i l e 3 ] n d i t u r e i l e 4 ] S h a r e E s t i m a t e s r o u p s ] S h a r e E s t i m a t e s ncomes ] S h a r e E s t i m a t e s n c o m e s ] S h a r e E s t i m a t e s S h a r e E s t i m a t e s S h a r e E s t i m a t e s S h a r e E s t i m a t e s 2 3 - 2 2 4 - 2 2 5 - 2 2 6 - 2 A 3 : 2 7 - 2 TENURE TENURE TENURE TENURE TENURE M O D E L : I n c o m e a n d P r i c e E l a s t i c i t i e s M O D E L : L o g L i k e l i h o o d V a l u e s [ T e s t o f u n i t y i n c o m e e l a s t i c i t y ] M O D E L : " D e m a n d " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a M O D E L : " S u p p l y " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a M O D E L : P o l i c y D a t a s e t 409 S E C T I O N A 3 : D E R I V E D CMA DATA a n d R E S U L T S . A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 **. •3 QUEBEC C I T Y 0 1 - 3 Z o n a l C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (5 Z o n e s ) 0 2 - 3 C l u s t e r i n g (5 Z o n e s ) 0 3 - 3 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : H o u s e h o l d C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 0 4 - 3 O R I G I N A L MODEL: 1961 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 0 5 - 3 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 6 1 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s 0 6 - 3 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s [GAMMA c a l i b r a t i o n s e t ] 0 7 - 3 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s [ B E T A c a l i b r a t i o n s e t ] 0 8 - 3 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s 0 9 - 3 O R I G I N A L MODEL h o u s e h o l d A L P H A S 1 0 - 3 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : P r i c e s , C o s t s a n d Q u a n t i t i e s 1 1 - 3 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : " G A M M A " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 1 2 - 3 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : " B E T A " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 1 3 - 3 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : P o l i c y D a t a s e t 1 4 - 3 TENURE M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s f o r T r a n s l o g 1 5 - 3 TENURE M O D E L : T r a n s l o g I n p u t V a r i a b l e s S t a t i s t i c s 1 6 - 3 TENURE 1 7 - 3 TENURE 1 8 - 3 TENURE 1 9 - 3 TENURE 2 0 - 3 TENURE 2 1 - 3 TENURE 2 2 - 3 TENURE M O D E L : E x p e . [ a l l i M O D E L : E x p e [ b e l o w M O D E L : E x p e [ a b o v e M O D E L : E x p e [ q u a r t M O D E L : E x p e [ q u a r t M O D E L : E x p e [ q u a r t M O D E L : E x p e [ q u a r t n d i t u ncome n d i t u mean n d i t u mean n d i t u i l e 1 n d i t u i l e 2 n d i t u i l e 3 n d i t u i l e 4 r e S h a r e E s t i m a t e s g r o u p s ] r e S h a r e E s t i m a t e s i n c o m e s ] r e S h a r e E s t i m a t e s i n c o m e s ] r e S h a r e E s t i m a t e s ] r e S h a r e E s t i m a t e s ] r e S h a r e E s t i m a t e s ] r e S h a r e E s t i m a t e s ] A 3 : 2 3 - 3 TENURE M O D E L : I n c o m e a n d P r i c e E l a s t i c i t i e s A 3 : 2 4 - 3 TENURE M O D E L : L o g L i k e l i h o o d V a l u e s [ T e s t o f u n i t y i n c o m e e l a s t i c i t y ] A 3 : 2 5 - 3 TENURE M O D E L : " D e m a n d " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a A 3 : 2 6 - 3 TENURE M O D E L : " S u p p l y " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a A 3 : 2 7 - 3 TENURE M O D E L : P o l i c y D a t a s e t 0 410 S E C T I O N A 3 : D E R I V E D CMA DATA a n d R E S U L T S . A 3 : * * - 4 S T . J O H N ' S A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 0 1 - 4 Z o n a l C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (5 Z o n e s ) 0 2 - 4 C l u s t e r i n g (5 Z o n e s ) 0 3 - 4 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : H o u s e h o l d C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 0 4 - 4 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 6 1 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 0 5 - 4 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 6 1 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s 0 6 - 4 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s [GAMMA c a l i b r a t i o n s e t ] 0 7 - 4 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s [ B E T A c a l i b r a t i o n s e t ] 0 8 - 4 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s 0 9 - 4 O R I G I N A L MODEL h o u s e h o l d A L P H A S 1 0 - 4 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : P r i c e s , C o s t s a n d Q u a n t i t i e s 1 1 - 4 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : " G A M M A " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 1 2 - 4 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : " B E T A " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 1 3 - 4 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : P o l i c y D a t a s e t 1 4 - 4 TENURE M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s f o r T r a n s l o g 1 5 - 4 TENURE M O D E L : T r a n s l o g I n p u t V a r i a b l e s S t a t i s t i c s A3 : 1 6 -4 TENURE A3 : 1 7 -4 TENURE A3 : 1 8 -4 TENURE A3 : 1 9 -4 TENURE A3 : 2 0 - 4 TENURE A3 : 2 1 - 4 TENURE A3 : 2 2 - 4 TENURE A3 : 2 3 - 4 TENURE A3 : 2 4 - 4 TENURE A3 : 2 5 - 4 TENURE A3 : 2 6 - 4 TENURE A3 : 2 7 - 4 TENURE MODEL [ MODEL [ MODEL [ MODEL [ MODEL [ MODEL [ MODEL [ E x p e a l l i : E x p e b e l o w : E x p e a b o v e : E x p e q u a r t E x p e q u a r t : E x p e q u a r t : E x p e q u a r t n d i t u r e ncome g n d i t u r e mean i n d i t u r e mean i n d i t u r e i l e 1 ] n d i t u r e i l e 2 ] n d i t u r e i l e 3] n d i t u r e i l e 4 ] S h a r e E s t i m a t e s r o u p s ] S h a r e E s t i m a t e s n c o m e s ] S h a r e E s t i m a t e s n c o m e s ] S h a r e E s t i m a t e s S h a r e E s t i m a t e s S h a r e E s t i m a t e s S h a r e E s t i m a t e s M O D E L : I n c o m e a n d P r i c e E l a s t i c i t i e s M O D E L : L o g L i k e l i h o o d V a l u e s [ T e s t o f u n i t y i n c o m e e l a s t i c i t y ] M O D E L : " D e m a n d " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a M O D E L : " S u p p l y " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a M O D E L : P o l i c y D a t a s e t 41 1 S E C T I O N A 3 : D E R I V E D CMA DATA a n d R E S U L T S . A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 * * -5 SASKATOON 0 1 - 5 Z o n a l C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (5 Z o n e s ) 0 2 - 5 C l u s t e r i n g (5 Z o n e s ) 0 3 - 5 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : H o u s e h o l d C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 0 4 - 5 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 6 1 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 0 5 - 5 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 6 1 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s 0 6 - 5 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s [GAMMA c a l i b r a t i o n s e t ] 0 7 - 5 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s [ B E T A c a l i b r a t i o n s e t ] 0 8 - 5 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s 0 9 - 5 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : H o u s e h o l d A L P H A S 1 0 - 5 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : P r i c e s , C o s t s a n d Q u a n t i t i e s 1 1 - 5 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : " G A M M A " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 1 2 - 5 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : " B E T A " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 1 3 - 5 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : P o l i c y D a t a s e t 1 4 - 5 TENURE M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s f o r T r a n s l o g 1 5 - 5 TENURE M O D E L : T r a n s l o g I n p u t V a r i a b l e s S t a t i s t i c s 1 6 - 5 TENURE 1 7 - 5 TENURE 1 8 - 5 TENURE 1 9 - 5 TENURE 2 0 - 5 TENURE 2 1 - 5 TENURE 2 2 - 5 TENURE M O D E L : E x p e n d i t u r e [ a l l i n c o m e g r MODEL E x p e n d i t u r e [ b e l o w mean i n M O D E L : E x p e n d i t u r e [ a b o v e mean i n M O D E L : E x p e n d i t u r e [ q u a r t i l e 1] M O D E L : E x p e n d i t u r e [ q u a r t i l e 2 ] M O D E L : E x p e n d i t u r e [ q u a r t i l e 3] MODEL E x p e n d i t u r e [ q u a r t i l e 4 ] S h a r e E s t i m a t e s o u p s ] S h a r e E s t i m a t e s comes ] S h a r e E s t i m a t e s c o m e s ] S h a r e E s t i m a t e s S h a r e E s t i m a t e s S h a r e E s t i m a t e s S h a r e E s t i m a t e s A 3 : 2 3 - 5 TENURE M O D E L : I n c o m e a n d P r i c e E l a s t i c i t i e s A 3 : 2 4 - 5 TENURE M O D E L : L o g L i k e l i h o o d V a l u e s [ T e s t o f u n i t y i n c o m e e l a s t i c i t y ] A 3 : 2 5 - 5 TENURE M O D E L : " D e m a n d " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a A 3 : 2 6 - 5 TENURE M O D E L : " S u p p l y " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a A 3 : 2 7 - 5 TENURE M O D E L : P o l i c y D a t a s e t t 412 S E C T I O N A 3 : D E R I V E D CMA DATA a n d R E S U L T S . A 3 : * * - 6 SUDBURY A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 0 1 - 6 Z o n a l C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (5 Z o n e s ) 0 2 - 6 C l u s t e r i n g (5 Z o n e s ) 0 3 - 6 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : H o u s e h o l d C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 0 4 - 6 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 6 1 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 0 5 - 6 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 6 1 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s 0 6 - 6 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s [GAMMA c a l i b r a t i o n s e t ] 0 7 - 6 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s [ B E T A c a l i b r a t i o n s e t ] 0 8 - 6 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s 0 9 - 6 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : H o u s e h o l d A L P H A S 1 0 - 6 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : P r i c e s , C o s t s a n d Q u a n t i t i e s 1 1 - 6 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : " G A M M A " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 1 2 - 6 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : " B E T A " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 1 3 - 6 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : P o l i c y D a t a s e t 1 4 - 6 TENURE M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s f o r T r a n s l o g 1 5 - 6 TENURE M O D E L : T r a n s l o g I n p u t V a r i a b l e s S t a t i s t i c s 1 6 - 6 TENURE 1 7 - 6 TENURE 1 8 - 6 TENURE 1 9 - 6 TENURE 2 0 - 6 TENURE 2 1 - 6 TENURE 2 2 - 6 TENURE MODEL [ MODEL [ MODEL [ MODEL [ MODEL [ MODEL [ MODEL [ : E x p e a l l i : E x p e b e l o w : E x p e a b o v e : E x p e q u a r t : E x p e q u a r t : E x p e q u a r t : E x p e q u a r t n d i t u r e ncome g n d i t u r e mean i n d i t u r e mean i n d i t u r e i l e 1 ] n d i t u r e i l e 2 ] n d i t u r e i l e 3 ] n d i t u r e i l e 4 ] S h a r e E s t i m a t e s r o u p s ] S h a r e E s t i m a t e s n c o m e s ] S h a r e E s t i m a t e s n c o m e s ] S h a r e E s t i m a t e s S h a r e E s t i m a t e s S h a r e E s t i m a t e s S h a r e E s t i m a t e s A 3 : 2 3 - 6 TENURE M O D E L : I n c o m e a n d P r i c e E l a s t i c i t i e s A 3 : 2 4 - 6 TENURE M O D E L : L o g L i k e l i h o o d V a l u e s [ T e s t o f u n i t y i n c o m e e l a s t i c i t y ] A 3 : 2 5 - 6 TENURE M O D E L : " D e m a n d " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a A 3 : 2 6 - 6 TENURE M O D E L : " S u p p l y " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a A 3 : 2 7 - 6 TENURE M O D E L : P o l i c y D a t a s e t 413 S E C T I O N A 3 : D E R I V E D CMA DATA a n d R E S U L T S . A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 A3 * * - 7 VANCOUVER 0 1 - 7 Z o n a l C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (5 Z o n e s ) 0 2 - 7 C l u s t e r i n g (5 Z o n e s ) 0 3 - 7 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : H o u s e h o l d C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 0 4 - 7 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 6 1 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s 0 5 - 7 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 6 1 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s 0 6 - 7 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s [GAMMA c a l i b r a t i o n s e t ] 0 7 - 7 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s [ B E T A c a l i b r a t i o n s e t ] 0 8 - 7 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s 0 9 - 7 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : H o u s e h o l d A L P H A S 1 0 - 7 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : P r i c e s , C o s t s a n d Q u a n t i t i e s 1 1 - 7 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : " G A M M A " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 1 2 - 7 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : " B E T A " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 1 3 - 7 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : P o l i c y D a t a s e t 1 4 - 7 TENURE M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s f o r T r a n s l o g 1 5 - 7 TENURE M O D E L : T r a n s l o g I n p u t V a r i a b l e s S t a t i s t i c s 1 6 - 7 TENURE 1 7 - 7 TENURE 1 8 - 7 TENURE 1 9 - 7 TENURE 2 0 - 7 TENURE 2 1 - 7 TENURE 2 2 - 7 TENURE M O D E L : E x p e n d i t u [ a l l i n c o m e M O D E L : E x p e n d i t u [ b e l o w mean M O D E L : E x p e n d i t u [ a b o v e mean M O D E L : E x p e n d i t u [ q u a r t i l e 1 M O D E L : E x p e n d i t u [ q u a r t i l e 2 M O D E L : E x p e n d i t u [ q u a r t i l e 3 M O D E L : E x p e n d i t u [ q u a r t i l e 4 r e S h a r e E s t i g r o u p s ] r e S h a r e E s t i i n c o m e s ] r e S h a r e E s t i i n c o m e s ] r e S h a r e E s t i ] r e S h a r e E s t i ] r e S h a r e E s t i ] r e S h a r e E s t i ] m a t e s m a t e s m a t e s m a t e s m a t e s m a t e s m a t e s A 3 : 2 3 - 7 TENURE M O D E L : I n c o m e a n d P r i c e E l a s t i c i t i e s A 3 : 2 4 - 7 TENURE M O D E L : L o g L i k e l i h o o d V a l u e s [ T e s t o f u n i t y i n c o m e e l a s t i c i t y ] A 3 : 2 5 - 7 TENURE M O D E L : " D e m a n d " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a A 3 : 2 6 - 7 TENURE M O D E L : " S u p p l y " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a A 3 : 2 7 - 7 TENURE M O D E L : P o l i c y D a t a s e t S E C T I O N A 3 : D E R I V E D CMA DATA a n d R E S U L T S . A3 . ** -8 W I N N I P E G A3 :01 -8 Z o n a l C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (5 Z o n e s ) A3 : 0 2 -8 C l u s t e r i n g (5 Z o n e s ) A3 : 0 3 -8 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : H o u s e h o l d C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s A3 : 0 4 -8 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 6 1 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s A3 : 0 5 -8 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 6 1 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s A3 : 0 6 -8 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s [GAMMA c a l i b r a t i o n s e t ] A3 : 0 7 -8 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s [ B E T A c a l i b r a t i o n s e t ] A3 : 0 8 -8 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s A3 : 0 9 -8 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : H o u s e h o l d A L P H A S A3 : 10 -8 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : P r i c e s , C o s t s a n d Q u a n t i t i e s A3 : 1 1 -8 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : " G A M M A " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a A3 : 12 -8 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : " B E T A " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a A3 : 1 3 -8 O R I G I N A L M O D E L : P o l i c y D a t a s e t A3 : 1 4 -8 TENURE M O D E L : 1 9 7 1 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s f o r T r a n s l o g A3 : 1 5 -8 TENURE M O D E L : T r a n s l o g I n p u t V a r i a b l e s S t a t i s t i c s A3 : 1 6 -8 TENURE M O D E L : E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e E s t i m a t e s [ a l l i n c o m e g r o u p s ] A3 : 17 - 8 TENURE MODEL E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e E s t i m a t e s [ b e l o w mean i n c o m e s ] A3 : 18 - 8 TENURE M O D E L : E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e E s t i m a t e s [ a b o v e mean i n c o m e s ] A3 : 19 - 8 TENURE M O D E L : E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e E s t i m a t e s [ q u a r t i l e 1] A3 : 2 0 - 8 TENURE MODEL E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e E s t i m a t e s [ q u a r t i l e 2 ] A3 :21 - 8 TENURE MODEL E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e E s t i m a t e s [ q u a r t i l e 3] A3 : 22 - 8 TENURE M O D E L : E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e E s t i m a t e s [ q u a r t i l e 4 ] A3 : 2 3 - 8 TENURE M O D E L : I n c o m e a n d P r i c e E l a s t i c i t i e s A3 : 2 4 - 8 TENURE M O D E L : L o g L i k e l i h o o d V a l u e s [ T e s t o f u n i t y i n c o m e e l a s t i c i t y ] A3 : 2 5 - 8 TENURE M O D E L : " D e m a n d " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a A3 : 2 6 - 8 -TENURE M O D E L : " S u p p l y " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a A3 : 2 7 - 8 TENURE M O D E L : P o l i c y D a t a s e t 415 CALGARY 416 Number o f Z o n e s : 05 D i s t r i b u t i o n o f C e n s u s T r a c t s t o Z o n e s : Zone 1961 1 971 1 9 16 2 2 4 3 8 39 4 4 5 5 4 4 A — 9 T o t a l 27 77 n o t e : " A " i n d i c a t e s a n n e x e d t r a c t s . : a n n e x e d c e n s u s t r a c t s i n c l u d e d i n Zone 1 S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : m o n t h l y r e n t v a l u e i n c o m e a c c e s s 1961 1 971 1961 1 971 1961 1 971 1 7 6 . 1 1 5 . 1 3 , 7 5 6 . 1 8 , 9 6 8 . 3 , 2 7 0 . 8 , 0 2 8 . 3 8 . 2 1 1 6 . 1 5 5 . 2 0 , 4 5 3 . 2 8 , 9 4 7 . 5 , 0 3 8 . 1 4 , 2 8 9 . 6 5 . 3 8 7 . 1 4 9 . 1 6 , 3 8 0 . 2 4 , 2 2 2 . 4 , 8 3 6 . 1 1 , 5 1 9 . 7 5 . 4 7 3 . 1 1 5 . 1 8 , 9 4 3 . 2 6 , 6 6 1 . 3 , 1 2 1 . 7 , 8 1 0 . 2 0 . 5 7 0 . 1 2 9 . 1 1 , 8 7 2 . 1 8 , 7 2 4 . 3 , 7 1 8 . 9 , 5 2 5 . 1 1 6 . A 1 5 7 . 2 4 , 181 . 1 0 , 9 4 2 . 1 1 6 . CMA 8 3 . 1 3 7 . 1 5 , 8 9 8 . 2 3 , 2 0 1 . 4 , 1 3 9 . 1 0 , 2 9 1 . 6 6 . T o t a l D w e l l i n g s i n Z o n e s : 1961 1971 d w e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g s %CMA s t o c k NEW %new %CMA new 1 2 4 , 0 5 2 . 2 9 , 5 8 0 . 2 4 . 4 8 , 1 1 4 . 2 7 . 4 1 6 . 9 2 5 , 5 2 1 . 6 , 3 6 0 . 5 . 2 1 , 2 9 6 . 2 0 . 4 2 . 7 3 3 3 , 3 8 7 . 5 4 , 8 2 5 . 4 5 . 3 ' 2 2 , 5 1 7 . 41 . 1 4 6 . 8 4 8 , 6 2 7 . 1 2 , 2 5 5 . 10 .1 4 , 6 3 9 . 3 7 . 9 9 . 6 5 6 , 2 9 7 . 5 , 0 7 5 . 4 . 2 1 , 8 1 3 . 3 5 . 7 3 . 8 A 1 3 , 0 7 0 . 1 0 . 8 9 , 7 0 5 . 7 4 . 3 2 0 . 2 7 7 , 8 8 4 . 1 2 1 , 1 6 5 . 1 0 0 . 0 4 8 , 0 8 4 . 3 9 . 7 1 0 0 . 0 s o u r c e : p r o g r a m " C Z O N E . F O R T " : f i l e s C A L 6 1 . I N P U T a n d C A L 7 1 . I N P U T . F i g u r e A 3 : 0 1 -1 C A L G A R Y : Z o n a l C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (5 z o n e s ) 417 F i g u r e A3:02-1 CALGARY: C l u s t e r i n g (5 zones) 418 D e m o g r a p h i c C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s : P o p u l a t i o n [ 1 ] 1 9 6 1 : 2 7 9 , 0 6 2 . [ 2 ] 1 9 7 1 : 4 0 3 , 3 2 0 . H o u s e h o l d s [ 1 ] 1 9 6 1 : 7 8 , 3 9 6 . [ 2 ] 1 9 7 1 : 1 2 1 , 2 9 0 . S o u r c e s : [ l ] S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a . CT 9 5 - 5 3 5 C T - 2 0 : [ 2 ] S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a . CT 9 5 - 7 2 8 s e r i e s A Mean H o u s e h o l d I n c o m e s : 1971 C e n s u s [ 3 ] 1974 SHU d a t a [ 4 ] d e f l a t o r SHU d e f l a t e d 1 0 , 2 9 1 . 1 1 , 9 6 6 . 0 . 8 6 0 0 1 0 , 5 0 6 . S o u r c e s : [ 3 ] S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a . CT 9 5 - 7 3 1 s e r i e s B , v a r i a b l e 49 : [ 4 ] f i l e C A L . S H U SHU d a t a s e t : S a m p l e s i z e : 2 8 7 9 . Sum o f t h e WEIGHTS : 1 4 9 , 7 3 6 . R A T I O o f SHU w e i g h t s t o a c t u a l h o u s e h o l d s : 1 . 2 3 4 5 " M o d e l " H o u s e h o l d s : # SHU a c t u a l u s e h o l d mean # SHU " m o d e l " h ' h o l d s / h ' h o l d s t y p e i n c o m e • h ' h o l d s h ' h o l d s m o d e l / " m o d e l " 1 9 , 6 3 7 . 1 5 , 4 8 8 . 1 0 . 1 5 4 9 . 1 2 5 5 . 2 1 2 , 2 6 1 . 5 7 , 9 5 5 . 3 9 . 1 4 8 6 . 1 2 0 4 . 3 1 1 , 7 5 4 . 1 0 , 8 8 3 . 7 . 1 5 5 5 . 1 2 6 0 . 4 1 3 , 3 0 0 . 2 0 , 8 3 4 . 1 5 . 1 3 8 9 . 1 1 2 5 . 5 5 , 4 6 5 . 9 , 2 9 7 . 6 . 1 5 4 9 . 1 2 5 5 . 6 7 , 6 0 5 . 1 3 , 7 7 2 . 9 . 1 5 3 0 . 1 2 3 9 . 7 8 , 1 0 3 . 1 3 , 8 3 3 . 9 . 1 5 3 7 . 1 2 4 5 . 8 3 , 8 7 4 . 7 , 6 7 4 . 5 . 1 5 3 5 . 1 2 4 3 . s o u r c e : p r o g r a m " H H 1 . F O R T " : f i l e C A L . S H U F i g u r e A 3 : 0 3 - 1 C A L G A R Y : HOUSEHOLD C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . 419 T o t a l 1961 d w e l l i n g s : 7 7 , 8 8 5 . R e n t a l : 2 8 , 6 6 3 . O w n e r - o c c u p i e r : 4 9 , 2 2 2 . S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : z o n e r e n t # r e n t a l u n i t s 1 7 5 . 1 1 , 4 0 1 . 2 1 1 8 . 8 6 4 . 3 8 7 . 9 , 3 9 7 . 4 7 2 . 5 , 5 9 5 . 5 7 8 . 1 , 4 0 6 . CMA 8 0 . 2 8 , 6 6 3 . d i s t r i b u t i o n : # # " m o d e l " z o n e d w e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g 1 2 4 , 0 5 2 . 2 1 . 2 5 , 5 2 1 . 5 . 3 3 3 , 3 8 7 . 2 9 . 4 8 , 6 2 7 . 7 . 5 6 , 2 9 7 . 5 . e r r o r o f f i t 0 . 0 2 4 7 8 v a l u e #o-o a n n u a l u n i t s r e n t / v a l u e 1 3 , 2 2 5 . 1 2 , 6 5 1 . 0 . 0 6 8 4 2 0 , 3 4 4 . 4 , 6 5 7 . 0 . 0 6 9 6 1 6 , 1 8 6 . 2 3 , 9 9 0 . 0 . 0 6 4 8 1 8 , 9 3 6 . 3 , 0 3 2 . 0 . 0 4 5 6 1 1 , 3 5 9 . 4 , 8 9 1 . 0 . 0 8 2 8 1 5 , 5 0 8 . 4 9 , 2 2 2 . 0 . 0 6 9 6 7 7 , 8 8 5 . 8 9 . 5 % 7 3 , 0 8 1 . 8 1 , 6 4 3 . 1 0 0 . 1 2 1 2 . 6 7 . " R H S " / a c t u a l S E R V I C E S a c t u a l / " m o d e l " c a l c u l a t e d w e i g h t e d 1 1 4 5 . 1 . 0 9 5 6 1 .0348 1 1 0 4 . 0 . 8 9 5 5 0 . 8 4 5 8 1 1 5 1 . 1 . 0 3 0 7 0 . 9 7 3 5 1 2 3 3 . 0 . 9 9 0 5 0 . 9 3 5 6 1 2 6 0 . 1 . 1871 1 . 1 2 1 3 s o u r c e : p r o g r a m " D 6 1 . F O R T " : d a t a s e t C A L 6 1 . I N P U T . 1961 " M o d e l " D w e l l i n g s : d e r i v a t i o n : 1961 D w e l l i n g s : TOTAL : R A T I O o f E X I S T I N G u n a n n e x e d / T O T A L : TOTAL 1961 D w e l l i n g s E X I S T I N G i n 1971 : TOTAL 1961 D w e l l i n g s A D J U S T E D f o r ANNEXED : 1971 " m o d e l " D w e l l i n g s : 1971 R A T I O A C T U A L / " m o d e 1 " : 1961 " m o d e l " D w e l l i n g s s o u r c e : p r o g r a m " D 6 1 . F O R T " : d a t a s e t C A L 6 1 . I N P U T . F i g u r e A 3 : 0 4 - 1 C A L G A R Y : 1961 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . OWNER/OCCUPIER MODEL RENTAL MODEL O . L . S W . L . S , O . L . S . W . L . S . CONSTANT 4 . 0 3 0 5 ( 6 . 6 0 ) 4 . 0 0 6 6 ( 7 . 9 1 ) 2 . 7 4 5 4 ( 3 . 7 7 ) 3 . 0 5 3 7 ( 5 . 2 8 ) M U L T I P L E 0 . 2 9 9 6 ( 4 . 0 3 ) 0 . 3 2 1 1 ( 5 . 1 4 ) 0 . 1903 ( 2 . 1 5 ) 0 . 1436 ( 2 . 3 9 ) CONSTRUCTED PRE 20 0 . 2 6 3 9 ( 3 . 7 7 ) 0 . 2 3 4 4 ( 3 . 8 3 ) - . 1 4 9 9 ( 1 . 8 3 ) - . 1 7 8 8 ( 3 . 1 8 ) 2 0 - 4 5 0 . 0 5 5 5 ( 0 . 7 4 ) 0 . 0 1 5 1 ( 0 . 2 5 ) - . 1 9 2 7 ( 2 . 1 8 ) - . 0 7 5 0 ( 1 . 0 8 ) C O N D I T I O N 0 . 2 0 9 0 ( 2 . 6 8 ) 0 . 2 6 6 1 ( 4 . 0 6 ) 0 . 1 5 5 5 ( 1 . 7 0 ) 0 . 1 1 0 3 ( 1 . 7 3 ) L N ROOMS 0 . 7 6 2 2 ( 7 . 0 5 ) 1 . 0 0 5 9 ( 1 0 . 2 ) 0 . 7 0 4 6 ( 5 . 5 0 ) 0 . 5 8 3 7 ( 6 . 8 7 ) L N INCOME 0 . 4 9 5 8 ( 6 . 3 3 ) 0 . 4 4 3 1 ( 6 . 5 6 ) 0 . 3 7 4 6 ( 4 . 0 6 ) 0 . 3 6 4 3 ( 5 . 1 1 ) A C C E S S - . 0 0 1 4 1 ( 2 . 8 3 ) . 0 0 1 2 8 ( 3 . 3 9 ) - . 0 0 2 5 ( 4 . 1 8 ) - . 0 0 2 4 ( 4 . 5 9 ) R2 O B S E R V A T I O N S 0 . 4 1 368 0 . 9 9 368 0 . 4 2 356 0.99 356 n o t e " t " s t a t i s t i s i n b r a c k e t s d a t a s o u r c e : C A L 6 1 . E A MEANS: L N INCOME M U L T I P L E A C C E S S 8 . 2 5 8 0 0 . 3 1 4 6 5 8 . 1 F i g u r e A 3 : 0 5 - 1 C A L G A R Y : 1961 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s 421 T o t a l 1971 d w e l l i n g s : 1 2 1 , 1 6 5 . R e n t a l : 5 2 , 3 3 0 . O w n e r - o c c u p i e r : 6 8 , 8 3 5 . S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : z o n e r e n t # r e n t a l v a l u e #o-o a n n u a l u n i t s u n i t s r e n t / v a l u e 1 1 2 0 . 2 0 , 2 3 0 . 2 1 , 0 9 5 . 2 2 , 4 1 5 . 0 . 0 6 8 4 2 1 5 3 . 1 , 8 3 0 . 2 8 , 8 2 8 . 4 , 5 3 0 . 0 . 0 6 3 6 3 1 3 9 . 1 8 , 7 5 5 . 2 4 , 9 6 1 . 3 6 , 0 8 5 . 0 . 0 6 7 2 4 1 1 4 . 1 0 , 1 5 5 . 2 7 , 9 0 5 . 2 , 0 9 5 . 0 . 0 4 9 2 5 1 2 3 . 1 , 3 6 0 . 1 9 , 3 2 1 . 3 , 7 1 0 . 0 . 0 7 6 8 CMA 1 2 7 . 5 2 , 3 3 0 . 2 3 , 7 4 2 . 6 8 , 8 3 5 . 0 . 0 6 3 6 >u rce : p r o g r a m "D71 . F O R T " : d a t a s e t C A L 7 1 . I N P U T . 371 " M o d e l " D w e l l i n g s : t o t a l number o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s : 1 0 0 . d i s t r i b u t i o n : # " R H S " / a c t u a l S E R V I C E S # " m o d e l " a c t u a l / z o n e d w e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g " m o d e l " c a l c u l a t e d w e i g h t e d 1 4 2 , 6 4 5 . 3 5 . 1 2 1 8 . 1 . 0 3 4 9 1 . 0 2 2 3 2 6 , 3 6 0 . 5 . 1 2 7 2 . 0 . 8 2 3 5 0 . 8 1 3 4 3 5 4 , 8 4 0 . 4 6 . 1 1 9 2 . 0 . 9 5 9 0 0 . 9 4 7 3 4 1 2 , 2 5 0 . 1 0 . 1 2 2 5 . 0 . 9 8 6 9 0 . 9 7 4 8 5 5 , 0 7 0 . 4 . 1 2 6 8 . 1 . 0 9 6 3 1 . 0 8 3 0 1 2 1 1 . e r r o r o f f i t 0 . 0 1 4 8 3 s o u r c e : p r o g r a m " D 7 1 . F O R T " : d a t a s e t C A L 7 1 . I N P U T . F i g u r e A 3 : 0 6 - 1 C A L G A R Y : 1971 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . [ "GAMMA" C a l i b r a t i o n S e t ] 422 T o t a l 1971 d w e l l i n g s : 1 2 1 , 1 6 5 . B u i l t p r i o r 1961 B u i l t 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 7 1 7 3 , 0 4 7 . 4 8 , 1 1 8 . S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : z o n e r e n t # r e n t a l v a l u e #o-o a n n u a l u n i t s u n i t s r e n t / v a l u e 1 1 0 3 . 1 1 , 9 2 1 . 1 8 , 4 0 8 . 1 2 , 8 9 1 . 0 . 0 6 7 2 2 1 3 7 . 1 , 0 0 2 . 2 8 , 8 9 6 . 4 , 0 6 2 . 0 . 0 5 6 4 3 1 1 5 . 1 0 , 0 5 7 . 2 2 , 3 4 9 . 2 2 , 2 4 8 . 0 . 0 6 1 2 4 9 8 . 5 , 5 7 6 . 2 7 , 7 5 3 . 2 , 0 3 1 . 0 . 0 4 2 0 5 9 9 . 7 9 4 . 1 5 , 7 5 1 . 2 , 4 6 5 . 0 . 0 7 5 6 99 1 5 1 . 2 2 , 9 7 9 . 2 7 , 7 3 7 . 2 5 , 1 3 9 . 0 . 0 6 6 0 CMA 1 2 7 . 5 2 , 3 3 0 . 2 3 , 8 8 8 . 6 8 , 8 3 5 . 0 . 0 6 3 6 >u rce : p r o g r a m "D71 . F O R T " : d a t a s e t C A L 7 1 . I N P U T . 371 " M o d e l " D w e l l i n g s : t o t a l number o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s : 1 0 0 . d i s t r i b u t i o n : # "RHS'Vactual S E R V I C E S # " m o d e l " a c t u a l / z o n e d w e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g " m o d e l " c a l c u l a t e d w e i g h t e d 1 2 4 , 8 1 2 . 2 0 . 1241 . 1 . 1 2 1 7 1 . 1034 2 5 , 0 6 4 . 4 . 1 2 6 6 . 0 . 8 2 7 7 0 . 8 1 4 2 3 3 2 , 3 0 5 . 2 7 . 1 1 9 6 . 1 . 0 4 0 0 1 .0230 4 7 , 6 0 7 . 6 . 1 2 6 8 . 1 . 0 5 9 3 1 .0420 5 3 , 2 5 9 . 3 . 1 0 8 7 . 1 . 2 8 1 8 1 . 2 6 0 9 99 4 8 , 1 1 8 . 4 0 . 1 2 0 3 . 0 . 8 9 5 1 0 . 8 8 0 4 e r r o r o f f i t 0 . 0 1 8 4 8 s o u r c e : p r o g r a m " D 7 1 . F O R T " 1211 d a t a s e t C A L 7 1 . I N P U T . F i g u r e A 3 : 0 7 - 1 C A L G A R Y : 1971 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . [ " B E T A " C a l i b r a t i o n S e t ] OWNER/OCCUPIER MODEL R E N T A L MODEL O . L . S . W . L . S . O . L . S . W . L . S . CONSTANT M U L T I P L E CONSTRUCTION 5 1 - 6 0 4 6 - 5 0 2 0 - 4 5 PRE 20 F A C I L I T I E S L N INCOME L N ROOMS R2 O B S E R V A T I O N S 8 . 4 9 1 9 ( 5 4 . 2 ) 0 . 0 5 2 2 ( 1 . 6 6 ) - . 1 2 2 7 ( 5 . 3 1 ) - . 2 3 7 3 ( 7 . 1 6 ) - . 2 9 9 5 ( 8 . 4 5 ) - . 3 4 5 6 ( 8 . 5 5 ) - . 0 5 0 0 ( 0 . 5 5 ) - . 0 5 4 5 ( 3 . 9 0 ) 0 . 5 7 4 7 ( 1 4 . 7 ) 0 .31 1 1 05 8 . 1 6 8 4 ( 5 2 . 7 ) 0 . 0 8 0 3 ( 2 . 2 7 ) - . 1 4 9 8 ( 7 . 0 3 ) - . 2 3 7 4 ( 7 . 0 6 ) - . 3 2 6 4 ( 8 . 4 5 ) - . 3 0 8 9 ( 7 . 3 1 ) 0 . 0 8 1 4 ( 0 . 9 4 ) 0 . 0 8 6 8 ( 5 . 8 4 ) 0 . 5 8 5 1 ( 1 4 . 7 ) 0 . 9 9 1 1 05 5 . 8 4 0 2 ( 4 5 . 6 ) - . 0 4 3 6 ( 1 . 6 4 ) - . 2 0 7 6 ( 8 . 4 5 ) - . 2 3 8 2 ( 6 . 2 5 ) - . 2 9 1 9 ( 8 . 4 1 ) - . 4 0 5 4 ( 1 1 . 2 ) , 0 . 2 3 4 9 ( 5 . 1 1 ) 0 . 1 1 9 6 ( 8 . 9 7 ) 0 . 2 5 0 8 ( 1 0 . 1 ) 0 . 3 2 1071 6 . 0 6 4 9 ( 5 3 . 4 ) - . 0 7 7 9 ( 2 . 9 5 ) - . 2 2 2 7 ( 8 . 9 1 ) - . 2 3 4 9 ( 6 . 2 4 ) - . 2 6 9 3 ( 7 . 9 6 ) - . 3 7 4 1 ( 1 0 . 2 ) 0 . 2 6 1 3 ( 5 . 9 2 ) 0 . 0 8 9 1 ( 7 . 6 1 ) 0 . 2 8 1 2 ( 1 1 . 5 ) 0 . 9 8 1 071 WEIGHTED 2 0 - 4 5 / P R E 20 - . 3 1 8 8 31 90 - . 3 5 3 8 - . 3 2 6 8 n o t e M E A N S : L N INCOME M U L T I P L E A C C E S S " t " s t a t i s t i s i n b r a c k e t s d a t a s o u r c e : C A L . S H U w e i g h t e d c o e f f i c i e n t f o r 2 0 - 4 5 a n d p r e 20 u s e d a s a c t u a l c e n s u s d a t a c o m b i n e s t h e s e v a r i a b l e s 8 . 9 8 9 8 0 . 3 1 0 0 4 9 . 0 F i g u r e A 3 : 0 8 - 1 C A L G A R Y : 1971 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s 424 a d j u s t m e n t v a l u e s : 1971 C e n s u s 2 3 , 2 0 1 . 1 3 7 . 1 0 , 2 9 1 . P R I C E RENT INCOME R / V r a t i o : 0 . 0 6 3 6 r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s a n d A L P H A S : O . L . S . MODEL 1974 SHU 4 0 , 3 9 4 . 1 5 4 . 1 1 , 9 6 6 . d e f l a t o r 0.57437 0.88961 0.8600 P ( j ) / P N r a t i o : 0 . 8 6 6 8 1 W . L . S . MODEL c o e f f i c i e n t s ALPHAS [ 1 ] CONSTANT ( T Y P E 1) DUMMY ( T Y P E 2) DUMMY ( T Y P E 3) DUMMY ('TYPE 4) DUMMY ( T Y P E 5) DUMMY ( T Y P E 6)' DUMMY ( T Y P E 7) DUMMY ( T Y P E 8) R2 O B S E R V A T I O N S 2 . 8 0 6 6 ( 1 1 0 . ) - . 1 0 9 0 ( 3 . 4 9 ) - . 1 7 6 0 ( 4 . 2 8 ) - . 2 7 6 1 ( 7 . 0 8 ) 0 . 4 2 5 1 ( 1 0 . 2 ) 0 . 3 3 1 1 ( 8 . 3 5 ) 0 . 1923 ( 4 . 8 1 ) 0 . 7 3 4 5 ( 1 6 . 1 ) 0 . 2 3 2773 0 . 1655 0 . 1484 0 . 1 3 8 8 0 . 1 2 5 6 0 . 2 5 3 2 0 . 2 3 0 5 0 . 2 0 0 6 0 . 3 4 5 1 c o e f f i c i e n t s 2 . 8 2 9 4 ( 1 0 6 . ) - . 1 7 2 5 ( 5 . 5 3 ) - . 2 1 2 4 ( 4 . 9 7 ) - . 3 3 2 0 ( 8 . 8 0 ) 0 . 3 9 7 8 ( 8 . 3 2 ) 0 . 2 8 7 3 ( 7 . 0 8 ) 0 . 1633 ( 3 . 8 9 ) 0 . 6 5 6 6 ( 1 3 . 1 ) 0 . 7 8 2773 ALPHAS [ 1 ] [ 2 ] 0 . 1 6 9 4 0 . 1 8 3 5 0 . 1 4 2 5 0 . 1 5 4 7 0 . 1 3 6 9 0 . 1 4 8 7 0 . 1 2 1 5 0 . 1 3 2 2 0 . 2 5 2 1 0 . 2 7 0 9 0 . 2 2 5 7 0 . 2 4 3 2 0 . 1994 ' 0 . 2 1 5 4 0 . 3 2 6 5 0 . 3 4 8 5 n o t e : [ l ] ALPHA v a l u e s a r e c a l c u l a t e d a s ; A L P H A ( 1 ) = E X P ( I N T E R C E P T ) A L P H A ( 2 ) - ( 8 ) = E X P ( I N T E R C E P T + C O E F F I C I E N T ) [ 2 ] A L P H A v a l u e s a d j u s t e d a s d e s c r i b e d i n S e c t i o n A 1 . 3 2 [ 3 ] " t " v a l u e s i n b r a c k e t s F i g u r e A 3 : 0 9 - 1 C A L G A R Y : H o u s e h o l d A L P H A S r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s a n d A L P H A S l o g ( ) = l o g ( a ) + l o g ( Y ( i ) ) Y ( i ) O . L . S . MODEL c o e f f i c i e n t W . L . S . MODEL A L P H A S [ 1 ] c o e f f i c i e n t a t mean l o w e s t h i g h e s t [ 2 ] CONSTANT ( T Y P E 1) 1 0 . 3 4 3 ( 7 1 . 7 ) 1 0 . 2 5 3 ( 7 0 . 7 ) 0 . 1 580 0 . 1 024 0 . 3130 DUMMY ( T Y P E 2) 0 . 0 4 4 0 ( 1 . 9 8 ) 0 . 0 0 5 8 ( 0 . 2 6 ) 0 . 1 306 0 . 071 2 0 . 7098 DUMMY ( T Y P E 3) r - . 0 0 8 0 ( 0 . 2 7 ) - . 0 2 8 3 ( 0 . 9 2 ) 0 . 1 306 0 . 0 9 7 3 0 . 2155 DUMMY ( T Y P E 4) - . 0 3 9 7 ( 1 . 4 2 ) - . 0 7 2 9 ( 2 . 6 6 ) 0 . 1 1 29 0 . 0734 0 . 241 3 DUMMY ( T Y P E 5) - . 0 3 7 2 ( 1 . 2 1 ) - . 0 9 7 0 ( 2 . 7 4 ) 0 . 2279 0 . 1 506 0 . 371 0 DUMMY ( T Y P E 6) 0 . 0 8 9 5 ( 3 . 1 5 ) - . 0 5 8 1 ( 1 . 9 8 ) 0 . 2030 0 . 1 340 0 . 4588 DUMMY ( T Y P E 7) - . 0 3 0 8 ( 1 . 0 8 ) - . 0 7 5 2 ( 2 . 4 8 ) 0 . 1689 0 . 1 094 0 . 4330 DUMMY ( T Y P E 8) - . 0 4 7 8 ( 1 . 3 5 ) - . 1 7 0 4 ( 4 . 3 5 ) 0 . 2805 0 . 1 796 0 . 4929 L N INCOME - . 8 2 9 6 ( 5 2 . 7 ) - . 8 1 6 1 ( 5 1 . 6 ) R2 0 . 6 1 | 0 . 8 9 O B S E R V A T I O N S 2773 | 2773 n o t e : [ 1 ] A L P H A v a l u e s a r e c a l c u l a t e d b y t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m p r o g r a m by s u b s t i t u t i n g t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s " m o d e l " i n c o m e s , a d e s c r i b e d i n S e c t i o n A 1 . 3 2 . T h e s e a r e u n a d j u s t e d v a l u e s . [ 2 ] c a l c u l a t e d by s u b s t i t u t i n g T Y P E s mean i n c o m e . [ 3 ] " t " v a l u e s i n b r a c k e t s . F i g u r e A 3 : 0 9 - 1 ( b ) C A L G A R Y : H o u s e h o l d A L P H A S [ m o d i f i e d ] 426 O p e r a t i n g a n d C a p i t a l C o s t s : A n n u a l A n n u a l O p e r a t i n g C a p i t a l D w e l l i n g Y e a r C o s t s C o s t s S t a r t s W e i g h t W e i g h t e d O p e r a t i n g C o s t s W e i g h t e d C a p i t a l C o s t s 1961 6 5 7 . 0 9 5 0 . 4 , 4 1 4 - - -1 962 6 6 6 . 0 9 5 3 . 5 , 1 36 0 . 0 9 1 6 0 . 6 8 6 . 7 1 963 6 7 6 . 0 9 5 8 . 3 , 6 7 2 0 . 0 6 5 4 3 . 9 6 2 . 3 1 964 691 . 0 9 6 5 . 3 , 8 8 7 0 . 0 6 9 4 7 . 7 6 6 . 6 1 965 7 1 1 . 0 1 0 0 9 . 4 , 178 0 . 0 7 4 5 2 . 6 7 4 . 7 1 966 7 3 6 . 0 1 1 9 3 . 3 , 3 0 4 0 . 0 5 8 4 2 . 6 6 9 . 2 1 967 771 . 0 1 3 1 1 . 3 , 8 3 3 0 . 0 6 8 5 2 . 4 8 9 . 1 1 968 8 1 7 . 0 1 5 7 4 . 7 , 4 0 3 0 . 1 3 1 1 0 6 . 9 2 0 6 . 2 1969 8 6 2 . 0 . 1 9 0 9 . 9 , 7 3 7 0 . 1 72 1 4 8 . 3 3 2 8 . 3 1 970 9 2 3 . 0 2 0 8 4 . 6 , 7 4 0 0 . 1 1 9 1 0 9 . 8 2 4 8 . 0 1 971 9 7 7 . 0 1 9 7 9 . 8 , 8 0 1 0 . 1 55 1 5 1 . 5 3 0 6 . 7 " M o d e l " C o s t s : A n n u a l ' A n n u a l T o t a l O p e r a t i n g ' C a p i t a l A n n u a l C o s t s C o s t s C o s t PO PC PN QM 1 961 6 5 7 . 0 9 5 0 . 0 1 6 0 7 . o 0 . 4 0 9 0 . 5 9 1 1 . 0 0 0 d e c a d e w e i g h t e d 8 1 6 . 3 1 5 3 8 . 8 2 3 5 5 . 1 0 . 5 0 6 0 . 9 5 4 1 . 4 6 0 50 1 971 9 7 7 . 4 1 9 7 9 . 0 2 9 5 6 . 4 0 . 6 0 8 1 . 2 3 2 1 . 8 4 0 39 I F i g u r e A 3 : 1 0 - 1 C A L G A R Y : P r i c e s , C o s t s a n d Q u a n t i t i e s [New C o n s t r u c t i o n ] 0000 GAMMA C A L I B R A T I O N 0000 INCOME by T Y P E 20 1 9 6 3 6 20 2 1 2 2 6 0 20 3 1 1 7 5 3 20 4 1 3 3 0 0 20 5 5464 20 6 7604 20 7 8 1 0 2 20 8 3874 0000 A L P H A by T Y P E 21 1 . 1 6 9 4 21 2 . 1 4 2 5 21 3 . 1 3 6 9 21 4 . 1 2 1 5 21 5 . 2 5 2 1 21 6 . 2 2 5 7 21 7 . 1 9 9 4 21 8 . 3 2 6 5 0000 "MODEL" H( 10 1 2 3 8 5 1 10 2 4523 1 10 3 5844 1 10 4 7114 1 10 5 8470 1 10 6 9575 1 10 7 1 0 5 7 3 1 10 8 1 1 8 8 6 1 10 9 1 3 5 0 4 1 1 0 1 0 2 3 3 3 8 1 1011 387 2 1012 1967 2 1013 3142 2 1014 3881 2 1015 4843 2 1016 5543 2 1017 6359 2 1018 6943 2 1019 7366 2 1020 7791 2 1021 8268 2 1022 8633 2 1023 8858 2 1024 9265 2 1025 9564 2 1026 9901 2 1 0 2 7 1 0 3 3 6 2 1 0 2 8 1 0 4 9 4 2 1 0 2 9 1 0 7 9 9 2 1 0 3 0 1 1 1 9 2 2 1 0 3 1 1 1 6 5 2 2 1 0 3 2 1 2 0 8 4 2 1 0 3 3 1 2 3 1 4 2 1 0 3 4 1 2 6 3 2 2 1 0 3 5 1 2 9 0 9 2 1 0 3 6 1 3 1 3 3 2 1 0 3 7 1 3 4 9 7 2 1 0 3 8 1 3 9 1 5 2 1 0 3 9 1 4 2 3 6 2 1 0 4 0 1 4 9 6 7 2 1 0 4 1 1 5 8 1 5 2 1 0 4 2 1 6 5 6 0 2 1 0 4 3 1 7 3 0 9 2 1 0 4 4 1 8 4 5 8 2 1 0 4 5 1 9 2 2 5 2 1 0 4 6 2 0 9 4 5 2 1 0 4 7 2 3 4 1 2 2 1 0 4 8 3 0 1 9 9 2 1 0 4 9 4 2 1 4 7 2 1050 4228 3 1051 7561 3 1052 9531 3 1 0 5 3 1 1 2 5 4 3 1 0 5 4 1 3 0 0 5 3 1 0 5 5 1 5 5 9 4 3 1 0 5 6 2 1 4 2 6 3 1057 2820 4 1058 5920 4 1059 7316 4 1060 8257 4 1061 9221 4 1 0 6 2 1 0 2 0 8 4 1 0 6 3 1 1 1 1 7 4 1 0 6 4 1 2 3 2 4 4 1 0 6 5 1 3 3 6 4 4 1 0 6 6 1 4 2 8 7 4 1 0 6 7 1 5 4 4 3 4 1 0 6 8 1 6 9 2 3 4 1 0 6 9 1 8 7 7 4 4 1 0 7 0 2 1 7 4 0 4 1 0 7 1 3 1 9 5 8 4 1072 2020 5 1073 2798 5 1074 3598 5 1075 4614 5 1076 7076 5 1 0 7 7 1 2 7 1 6 5. 1078 1441 6 1079 3006 6 1080 4391 6 1081 5364 6 1082 7 0 2 5 6 1083 8200 6 1084 9498 6 1 0 8 5 1 1 6 2 2 6 1 0 8 6 1 7 7 6 3 6 1087 1185 7 1088 2557 7 1089 4444 7 1090 5745 7 1091 7151 7 1092 8599 7 1 0 9 3 1 0 4 2 8 7 109412671 7 1 0 9 5 1 9 6 4 0 7 1096 1226 8 1097 1918 8 1098 2432 8 1099 4008 8 11 0 9619 8 F i g u r e A 3 : 1 1 -1 C A L G A R Y : "GAMMA" C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 428 0000 GAMMA C A L I B R A T I O N 0000 "MODEL " D w e l l i n g s 30 1 32 25 1 3 0 3 5 226 30 2 50 40 1 3036 70 30 3 60 47 1 3037 99 30 4 66 52 1 3038 1 16 30 5 70 56 1 3039 1 37 30 6 74 59 1 3040 186 30 7 78 62 1 3041 36 30 8 82 65 1 3042 58 30 9 86 68 1 3043 65 301 0 89 71 1 3044 70 301 1 93 73 1 3 0 4 5 75 301 2 96 76 1 3046 79 301 3 99 78 1 3047 82 3014 1 02 81 1 3048 85 3 0 1 5 1 04 83 1 3049 87 301 6 1 07 85 1 3050 89 3017 1 10 87 1 3051 91 3018 1 1 3 90 1 3052 93 3019 1 1 6 92 1 3053 95 3020 1 19 95 1 3054 97 3021 1 22 97 1 3 0 5 5 99 3022 1 25 99 1 3056 101 3023 1 28 101 1 3057 1 02 3024 131 104 1 3058 1 04 3 0 2 5 1 34 106 1 3059 106 3026 1 37 108 1 3060 108 3027 1 40 111 1 3061 1 10 3028 143 114 1 3062 1 12 3029 1 47 116 1 3063 1 1 3 3030 151 120 1 3064 1 1 5 3031 1 56 124 1 3065 1 17 3032 1 62 128 1 3066 1 18 3033 1 68 133 1 3067 1 20 3034 1 78 141 1 3068 1 22 1 79 1 3069 124 98 3 55 2 3070 1 25 100 3 79 2 3071 1 27 101 3 92 2 3072 1 29 103 3 109 2 3073 131 1 04 3 1 48 2 3074 134 106 3 28 3 3075 1 36 108 3 46 3 3076 1 39 1 10 3 52 3 3077 1 42 1 1 2 3 56 3 3078 1 45 1 1 5 3 59 3 3079 1 49 1 18 3 62 3 3080 1 53 121 3 65 3 3081 1 57 125 3 67 3 3082 162 1 29 3 69 3 3083 169 1 34 3 71 3 3084 1 78 141 3 72 3 3085 199 1 58 3 74 3 3086 252 200 3 75 3 3087 24 1 9 4 77 3 3088 56 44 4 78 3 3089 70 56 4 80 3 3090 85 67 4 81 3 3091 98 78 4 83 3 3092 108 86 4 84 3 3093 1 16 92 4 85 3 3094 1 25 99 4 87 3 3095 1 36 1 08 4 88 3 3096 1 59 126 4 90 3 3097 57 45 5 91 3 3098 92 73 5 93 3 3099 1 20 96 5 94 3 31 0 1 60 1 27 5 95 3 97 3 0000 ZONAL DATA 40 1 8921 62 40 2 1 4 2 8 9 65 40 3 1 1 5 1 9 75 40 4 7810 20 40 5 9 5 2 5 116 40 6 1 0 2 9 0 66 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 70 1 1 . 2 7 7 0 . 1 0 6 0 . 3 9 9 0 . 0 6 6 0 . 0 9 7 0 . 0 7 3 0 . 0 7 4 0 . 1 1 2 0 . 0 7 3 8 9 2 0 1 . 0 0 0 1 1 4 . 0 70 2 1 . 1 1 6 0 . 0 8 3 0 . 5 1 8 0 . 0 4 7 0 . 1 2 4 0 . 0 9 3 0 . 0 2 3 0 . 0 6 0 0 . 0 5 2 1 4 2 8 7 1 . 0 0 0 1 2 1 . 8 70 31 . 2 6 1 0 . 1 1 6 0 . 5 4 7 0 . 0 6 0 0 . 0 9 8 0 . 0 5 8 0 . 0 3 4 0 . 0 5 6 0 . 0 3 0 1 1 5 1 7 1 . 0 0 0 1 1 7 . 4 70 4 1 . 3 9 6 0 . 0 6 0 0 . 1 5 6 0 . 0 7 1 0 . 1 0 9 0 . 0 6 1 0 . 1 7 0 0 . 2 4 1 0 . 1 3 2 7 8 0 8 1 . 0 0 0 9 7 . 8 70 5 1 . 3 0 0 0 . 1 3 6 0 . 6 0 2 0 . 0 5 6 0 . 0 6 2 0 . 0 5 6 0 . 0 1 6 0 . 0 4 7 0 . 0 2 6 9 5 2 9 1 . 0 0 0 1 0 7 . 3 70 6 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 F i g u r e A 3 : 1 1 - 1 A C A L G A R Y : "GAMMA" C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 429 0000 BETA C A L I B R A T I O N 0000 INCOME by T Y P E 20 1 9636 20 2 1 2 2 6 0 20 3 1 1 7 5 3 20 4 1 3 3 0 0 20 5 5464 20 6 7604 20 7 8102 20 8 3874 0000 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 ALPHA 1 .1694 2 . 1425 3 . 1369 1215 2521 2257 1994 3265 by T Y P E 0000 " M O D E L " HOUSEHOLDS 10 1 2 3 8 5 1 1051 7561 3 10 2 4 5 2 3 1 1052 9531 3 10 3 5844 1 1 0 5 3 1 1 2 5 4 3 10 4 7 1 1 4 1 1 0 5 4 1 3 0 0 5 3 10 5 8 4 7 0 1 1 0 5 5 1 5 5 9 4 3 10 6 9 5 7 5 1 1 0 5 6 2 1 4 2 6 3 10 71 0 5 7 3 1 1057 2820 4 10 81 1886 1 1058 5920 4 10 9 1 3 5 0 4 1 1059 7316 4 1 0 1 0 2 3 3 3 8 1 1060 8257 4 101 1 387 2 1061 9221 4 1012 1 967 2 1 0 6 2 1 0 2 0 8 4 1013 31 42 2 1 0 6 3 1 1 1 1 7 4 1014 3881 2 1 0 6 4 1 2 3 2 4 4 1015 4 8 4 3 2 1 0 6 5 1 3 3 6 4 4 1016 5543 2 1 0 6 6 1 4 2 8 7 4 1017 6 3 5 9 2 1 0 6 7 1 5 4 4 3 4 1018 6 9 4 3 2 1 0 6 8 1 6 9 2 3 4 1019 7 3 6 6 2 1 0 6 9 1 8 7 7 4 4 1020 7791 2 1 0 7 0 2 1 7 4 0 4 1021 8268 2 1 0 7 1 3 1 9 5 8 4 1022 8 6 3 3 2 1072 2020 5 1023 8 8 5 8 2 1073 2798 5 1 024 9 2 6 5 2 1074 3598 5 1 025 9564 2 1075 4614 5 1 026 9901 2 1076 7076 5 1 0 2 7 1 0 3 3 6 2 10771271 6 5 1 0 2 8 1 0 4 9 4 2 1078 1441 6 1 0 2 9 1 0 7 9 9 2 1079 3006 6 1 0 3 0 1 1 1 9 2 2 1080 4391 6 1 0 3 1 1 1 6 5 2 2 1081 5364 6 1 0 3 2 1 2 0 8 4 2 1082 7 0 2 5 6 1 0 3 3 1 2 3 1 4 2 1083 8200 6 1 0 3 4 1 2 6 3 2 2 1084 9498 6 1 0 3 5 1 2 9 0 9 2 1 0 8 5 1 1 6 2 2 6 1 0 3 6 1 3 1 3 3 2 1 0 8 6 1 7 7 6 3 6 1 0 3 7 1 3 4 9 7 2 1087 1185 7 1 0 3 8 1 3 9 1 5 2 1088 2557 7 1 0 3 9 1 4 2 3 6 2 1089 4444 7 1 0 4 0 1 4 9 6 7 2 1090 5 7 4 5 7 1 0 4 1 1 5 8 1 5 2 1091 7151 7 1 0 4 2 1 6 5 6 0 2 1092 8 5 9 9 7 1 0 4 3 1 7 3 0 9 2 1 0 9 3 1 0 4 2 8 7 1 0 4 4 1 8 4 5 8 2 109412671 7 1 0 4 5 1 9 2 2 5 2 1 0 9 5 1 9 6 4 0 7 1 0 4 6 2 0 9 4 5 2 1096 1226 8 1 0 4 7 2 3 4 1 2 2 1097 1918 8 1 0 4 8 3 0 1 9 9 2 1098 2432 8 1 0 4 9 4 2 1 4 7 2 1099 4008 8 1050 4228 3 11 0 9619 8 F i g u r e A 3 : 1 2 - 1 C A L G A R Y : " B E T A " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 430 0000 BETA C A L I B R A T I O N 0000 "MODEL" D w e l l i n g s 30 1 22 1 3 0 3 5 92 3 30 2 41 1 3036 94 3 30 3 52 1 3037 97 3 30 4 58 1 3038 99 3 30 5 63 1 3039 101 3 30 6 67 1 3040 1 04 3 30 7 71 1 3041 106 3 30 8 74 1 3042 108 3 30 9 78 1 3043 1 1 1 3 3010 81 1 3044 1 1 3 3 301 1 85 1 3045 1 1 5 3 301 2 89 1 3046 118 3 301 3 93 1 3047 1 20 3 301 4 98 1 3048 1 23 3 301 5 1 02 1 3049 127 3 301 6 1 07 1 3050 1 33 3 3017 1 13 1 3051 1 39 3 3018 119 1 3052 145 3 301 9 1 26 1 3053 152 3 3020 141 1 3054 166 3 3021 207 1 3055 261 3 3022 65 2 3056 26 4 3023 88 2 3057 53 4 3024 1 03 2 3058 67 4 3 0 2 5 1 23 2 3059 77 4 3026 1 74 2 3060 92 4 3027 39 3 3061 1 1 7 4 3028 58 3 3062 187 4 3029 65 3 3063 54 5 3030 70 3 3064 81 5 3031 75 3 3065 96 5 3032 81 3 3066 1 1 2 5 3033 86 3 3067 1 50 5 3034 90 3 0000 ZONAL DATA 40 1 8921 62 40 2 1 4 2 8 9 65 40 3 1 1 5 1 9 75 40 4 7810 20 40 5 9525 1 1 6 40 6 1 0 2 9 0 66 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 70 1 1 . 1 8 5 0 . 0 9 1 0 . 3 4 1 0 . 0 6 5 0 . 1 0 8 0 . 0 9 4 0 . 0 8 2 0 . 1 2 9 0 . 0 9 0 8 1 7 6 1 . 0 0 0 1 1 9 . 3 70 2 0 . 9 6 8 0 . 0 7 9 0 . 5 0 9 0 . 0 4 6 0 . 1 2 6 0 . 0 9 8 0 . 0 2 3 0 . 0 6 3 0 . 0 5 6 1 4 4 7 5 0 . 9 1 7 1 3 6 . 9 70 3 1 . 0 8 9 0 . 1 0 7 0 . 5 0 3 0 . 0 6 1 0 . 1 1 0 0 . 0 7 4 0 . 0 4 0 0 . 0 6 6 0 . 0 3 9 1 0 6 7 5 0 . 9 6 8 1 2 9 . 7 70 4 1 . 2 3 0 0 . 0 5 9 0 . 1 5 5 0 . 0 6 7 0 . 1 0 2 0 . 0 6 1 0 . 1 6 0 0 . 2 4 7 0 . 1 4 8 7 4 5 9 0 . 8 8 2 1 1 6 . 2 70 5 1 . 1 7 1 0 . 1 3 3 0 . 5 7 4 0 . 0 5 7 0 . 0 6 9 0 . 0 6 4 0 . 0 1 8 0 . 0 5 4 0 . 0 3 1 8 8 0 5 0 . 5 1 8 1 1 4 . 5 70 61 . 4 6 0 0 . 1 2 2 0 . 5 1 9 0 . 0 6 3 0 . 0 8 5 0 . 0 4 2 0 . 0 5 4 0 . 0 7 7 0 . 0 3 8 1 1 2 3 0 1 . 0 0 0 1 1 7 . 4 F i g u r e A 3 : 1 2 - 1 A C A L G A R Y : " B E T A " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 431 0000 P o l i c y D a t a s e t 0000 " M O D E L " HOUSEHOLDS a n d B A S E 10 1 2385 1 61 . 1 3 4 53 .4 10 2 4523 1 331 . 3 2 3 73 .6 10 3 5844 1 9991 . 4 6 0 82 .8 10 4 7114 1 401 . 4 5 3 93 .3 10 5 8470 1 461 . 4 1 7 1 0 4 .6 10 6 9575 1 9991 . 4 6 0 1 1 1 .3 10 7 1 0 5 7 3 1 9991 . 4 6 0 1 1 8 .2 10 8 1 1 8 8 6 1 201 . 4 5 9 1 2 6 .8 10 9 1 3 5 0 4 1 9991 . 4 6 0 1 3 6 . 9 1 0 1 0 2 3 3 3 8 1 9991 . 4 6 0 1 9 0 . 0 1011 387 2 20 . 5 0 6 24 . 6 1012 1967 2 41 . 0 6 2 44 . 9 1013 3142 2 581 . 2 5 0 55 . 8 1014 3881 2 591 .231 63 . 7 1015 4843 2 1 1 1 . 2 8 2 71 . 7 1016 5543 2 121 . 3 3 6 76 . 6 1017 6359 2 601 . 4 1 6 81 . 5 1018 6943 2 651 . 4 3 4 85 . 6 1019 7366 2 141 . 4 5 9 88 . 1 1020 7791 2 241 .431 91 . 7 1021 8268 2 41 1 . 4 4 3 94 . 8 1022 8633 2 421 . 4 5 6 97 . 0 1023 8858 2 431 . 4 3 5 99 . 0 1024 9265 2 171 . 4 5 1 1 0 1 . 3 1025 9564 2 451 . 4 5 3 1 0 3 . 2 1026 9901 2 61 1 . 4 5 9 1 0 5 . 2 1 0 2 7 1 0 3 3 6 2 9991 . 4 6 0 1 0 8 . 0 1 0 2 8 1 0 4 9 4 2 481 . 4 3 4 1 0 9 . 6 1 0 2 9 1 0 7 9 9 2 9991 . 4 6 0 1 1 0 . 8 1 0 3 0 1 1 1 9 2 2 491 . 4 4 5 1 1 3 . 6 1 0 3 1 1 1 6 5 2 2 9991 . 4 6 0 1 1 6 . 0 1 0 3 2 1 2 0 8 4 2 501 . 4 4 5 1 1 9 . 0 1 0 3 3 1 2 3 1 4 2 9991 . 4 6 0 1 1 9 . 9 1 0 3 4 1 2 6 3 2 2 9991 . 4 6 0 1 2 1 . 8 1 0 3 5 1 2 9 0 9 2 9991 . 4 6 0 1 2 3 . 4 1 0 3 6 1 3 1 3 3 2 51 1 . 4 5 5 1 2 4 . 8 1 0 3 7 1 3 4 9 7 2 9991 . 4 6 0 1 2 6 . 7 1 0 3 8 1 3 9 1 5 2 521 . 4 4 2 1 2 9 . 6 1 0 3 9 1 4 2 3 6 2 671 . 4 0 8 1 3 2 . 5 1 0 4 0 1 4 9 6 7 2 9991 . 4 6 0 1 3 4 . 8 1 0 4 1 1 5 8 1 5 2 9991 . 4 6 0 1 3 9 . 4 1 0 4 2 1 6 5 6 0 2 9991 . 4 6 0 1 4 3 . 3 1 0 4 3 1 7 3 0 9 2 9991 . 4 6 0 1 4 7 . 1 1 0 4 4 1 8 4 5 8 2 261 . 4 2 0 1 5 4 . 4 1 0 4 5 1 9 2 2 5 2 9991 . 4 6 0 1 5 6 .7 1 0 4 6 2 0 9 4 5 2 621 . 4 2 6 1 6 6 . 3 1 0 4 7 2 3 4 1 2 2 21 1 . 3 6 9 1 8 0 . 3 1 0 4 8 3 0 1 9 9 2 551 . 2 4 6 2 1 7 . 3 1 0 4 9 4 2 1 4 7 2 9991 •. 460251 . 0 1050 4228 3 31 1 .261 62 . 8 DATA 1051 7561 3 9991 . 4 6 0 8 4 . 5 1052 9531 3 661 . 3 9 8 9 8 . 6 1 0 5 3 1 1 2 5 4 3 471 . 4 5 0 1 0 7 . 6 1 0 5 4 1 3 0 0 5 3 9991 . 4 6 0 1 1 7 . 1 1 0 5 5 1 5 5 9 4 3 9991 . 4 6 0 1 3 0 . 5 1 0 5 6 2 1 4 2 6 3 9991 . 4 6 0 1 5 8 . 0 1057 2820 4 51 . 0 6 2 4 8 . 8 1058 5920 4 101 . 3 4 4 6 9 . 9 1059 7316 4 341 . 3 8 0 7 8 . 7 1060 8257 4 131 . 4 4 8 8 3 . 3 1061 9221 4 381 . 4 5 5 8 8 . 9 1 0 6 2 1 0 2 0 8 4 9991 . 4 6 0 9 4 . 4 1 0 6 3 1 1 1 1 7 4 441 . 4 2 0 1 0 0 . 2 1 0 6 4 1 2 3 2 4 4 181 . 4 3 8 1 0 6 . 2 1 0 6 5 1 3 3 6 4 4 9991 . 4 6 0 1 1 1 . 0 1 0 6 6 1 4 2 8 7 4 9991 . 4 6 0 1 1 5 . 5 1 0 6 7 1 5 4 4 3 4 9991 . 4 6 0 1 2 1 . 0 1 0 6 8 1 6 9 2 3 4 9991 . 4 6 0 1 2 7 . 8 1 0 6 9 1 8 7 7 4 4 531 . 4 5 1 1 3 6 . 3 1 0 7 0 2 1 7 4 0 4 541 . 4 5 1 1 4 8 . 9 1 0 7 1 3 1 9 5 8 4 9991 . 4 6 0 1 8 7 . 2 1072 2020 5 301 . 1 9 2 5 7 . 1 1073 2798 5 91 . 3 0 6 6 6 . 4 1074 3598 5 231 . 3 4 8 7 6 . 1 1075 4614 5 371 . 4 2 4 8 6 . 2 1076 7076 5 251 . 4 5 3 1 1 0 . 4 1 0 7 7 1 2 7 1 6 5 9991 . 4 6 0 1 5 6 . 6 1078 1441 6 291 . 0 5 6 5 0 . 2 1079 3006 6 321 .341 6 9 . 8 1080 4391 6 361 . 4 5 9 8 4 . 5 1081 5364 6 161 . 4 4 4 9 5 . 7 1082 7025 6 191 . 4 4 2 1 1 2 . 6 1083 8200 6 9991 . 4 6 0 1 2 2 . 9 1084 9498 6 9991 . 4 6 0 1 3 4 . 3 1 0 8 5 1 1 6 2 2 6 9991 . 4 6 0 1 5 1 . 6 1 0 8 6 1 7 7 6 3 6 9991 . 4 6 0 1 9 5 . 5 1087 1185 7 280 . 9 3 4 4 2 . 6 1088 2557 7 71 . 2 4 6 5 9 . 1 1089 4444 7 351 . 3 5 0 7 9 . 6 1090 5745 7 151 . 4 2 9 9 0 . 8 1091 7151 7 9991 . 4 6 0 1 0 2 . 6 1092 8599 7 9991 . 4 6 0 1 1 4 . 6 1 0 9 3 1 0 4 2 8 7 9991 . 4 6 0 1 2 8 . 7 109412671 7 9991 . 4 6 0 1 4 4 . 7 1 0 9 5 1 9 6 4 0 7 9991 . 4 6 0 1 8 8 . 2 1096 1226 8 221 . 0 9 2 5 0 . 9 1097 1918 8 81 . 2 5 0 6 1 . 7 1098 2432 8 641 . 3 1 5 6 9 . 2 1099 4008 8 391 .421 8 9 . 6 1100 9619 8 9991 . 4 6 0 1 4 9 . 5 F i g u r e A 3 : 1 3 - 1 C A L G A R Y : P o l i c y D a t a s e t 432 0000 P o l i c y D a t a s e t 0000 " M O D E L " DWELLINGS 30 1 22 1 3035 92 3 30 2 41 1 3036 94 3 30 3 52 1 3037 97 3 30 4 58 1 3038 99 3 30 5 63 1 3039 101 3 30 6 67 1 3040 104 3 30 7 71 1 3041 106 3 30 8 74 1 3042 108 3 30 9 78 1 3043 1 1 1 3 3010 81 1 3044 1 1 3 3 301 1 85 1 3045 1 1 5 3 3012 89 1 3046 118 3 301 3 93 1 3047 1 20 3 301 4 98 1 3048 123 3 301 5 1 02 1 3049 127 3 3016 107 1 3050 133 3 301 7 1 1 3 1 3051 1 39 3 3018 1 19 1 3052 1 45 3 3019 1 26 1 3053 1 52 3 3020 141 1 3054 166 3 3021 207 1 3055 261 3 3022 65 2 3056 26 4 3023 88 2 3057 53 4 3024 1 03 2 3058 67 4 3 0 2 5 1 23 2 3059 77 4 3026 174 2 3060 92 4 3027 39 3 3061 1 17 4 3028 58 3 3062 187 4 3029 65 3 3063 54 5 3030 70 3 3064 81 5 3031 75 3 3065 96 5 3032 81 3 3066 1 1 2 5 3 0 3 3 86 3 3067 150 5 3034 90 3 0000 INCOME by T Y P E 0000 A L P H A by 20 1 9636 21 1 . 1694 20 2 1 2 2 6 0 21 2 . 1 425 20 3 1 1 7 5 3 21 3 . 1369 20 4 1 3 3 0 0 21 4 . 1215 20 5 5464 21 5 . 2521 20 6 7604 21 6 . 2257 20 7 81 02 21 7 . 1 994 20 8 3874 21 8 . 3265 T Y P E 0000 ZONAL DATA 40 40 40 40 40 6085 7244 8654 8398 7867 40 6 1 3 6 5 0 62 65 75 20 1 16 66 F i g u r e A 3 : 1 3 - 1 ( c o n t ) C A L G A R Y : P o l i c y D a t a s e t 433 R E N T A L MODEL CONSTANT 2 . 6 1 1 5 ( 2 3 . 5 ) BATH 0 . 2 2 2 3 ( 1 . 9 0 ) T O I L E T 0 . 0 1 7 9 ( 0 . 1 5 ) S U B S I D I S - . 4 8 7 1 ( 1 3 . 8 ) L N L I V I N G 0 . 2 7 7 8 ( 8 . 5 7 ) LNINCOM 0 . 1 4 0 2 ( 9 . 9 7 ) T Y P E - . 0 7 0 8 ( 4 . 4 5 ) L N D I S T - . 0 0 2 2 ( 0 . 2 6 ) B51 60 - . 0 6 1 1 ( 3 . 0 0 ) B 4 6 5 0 - . 2 1 1 6 ( 6 . 7 6 ) B 2 1 4 5 - . 1 4 6 6 ( 5 . 1 9 ) B P R E 2 0 - . 2 6 0 1 ( 8 . 7 9 ) L G L V S I Z E 0 . 1 0 9 6 ( 6 . 8 8 ) L G B D S I Z E 0 . 0 7 3 8 ( 9 . 1 4 ) OPENSP 0 . 0 3 5 9 ( 1 . 9 1 ) HIGHDEN 0 . 0 0 9 5 ( 0 . 6 1 ) COMMERC - . 0 2 9 6 ( 1 . 6 8 ) NEIGHBD 0 . 0 6 1 9 ( 3 . 1 8 ) F I N A N C E - . 0 5 9 0 ( 3 . 6 7 ) AMRATE na R2 0 . 5 8 O b s e r v a t i o n s 1 270 n o t e : " t " s t a t i s t i c s i n b r a c k e t s : d a t a s o u r c e : C A L . R E G 0 2 OWNER-OCCUPIER MODEL 1 . 6 9 1 9 ( 5 . 0 2 ) na 0 . 0 4 9 9 ( 0 . 1 7 ) - . 1 6 2 6 ( 2 . 6 7 ) 0 . 3 3 8 4 ( 9 . 6 0 ) 0 . 2 4 2 8 ( 1 2 . 4 ) - . 0 9 5 0 ( 3 . 1 1 ) - . 0 0 1 5 ( 0 . 1 8 ) - . 0 8 8 8 ( 4 . 7 5 ) - . 0 9 9 0 ( 3 . 3 2 ) - . 1 6 1 5 ( 5 . 1 5 ) - . 2 4 2 8 ( 6 . 4 2 ) 0 . 1 0 9 5 ( 5 . 0 8 ) 0 . 0 1 9 2 ( 1 . 8 5 ) 0 . 0 1 8 4 ( 0 . 7 3 ) - . 0 7 6 0 (1 . 8 7 ) na na - . 0 3 8 1 ( 1 . 9 1 ) 0 . 0 9 6 4 ( 2 2 . 2 ) 0 . 4 9 1415 F i g u r e A 3 : 1 4 - 1 C A L G A R Y : 1971 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s f o r T r a n s l o g s 434 translog variables TYPE 1 mean min max TYPE 2 mean min max TYPE 3 mean min max TYPE 4 mean min max TYPE 5 mean min max TYPE 6 mean min max TYPE 7 mean min max TYPE 8 mean min max TYPE 9 mean min max TYPE 10 mean min max M 323.5 75.7 1797.3 519.8 1 03.4 2754.8 750.7 1 48.6 2845.3 568.6 98.0 2175.4 730.7 153.3 1753.9 652. 1 140.5 2638.3 726.8 138.5 2071 .2 1038.1 314.5 2974.9 882.7 1 68.3 2186.8 986.3 1 92. 1 2819.9 ph*XH 1 09.3 25. 1 247.3 124.5 18.4 609.9 148.5 30.9 398.5 1 52.2 53.5 442.8 153.9 46.0 283.2 228.5 46.8 1013.6 215.6 37.6 643. 1 224.9 37.9 812.2 237.6 44.9 699.3 240.2 28.5 985.0 ph .606 .524 .794 .627 .517 .877 .657 .516 .870 .689 .524 .859 .679 .520 .859 .798 .541 .863 ,835 ,568 ,904 871 589 925 867 580 914 .899 .609 .945 P9 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 1 .282 ph*XH M 0.4193 0.0635 0.9932 0.2901 0.0340 0.9992 0.2352 0.0485 0.8720 0.3267 0.0888 0.9798 0.2388 0.0824 0.8173 0.4058 0.0837 0.9544 0.3462 0.0408 0.9368 0.2288 0.0481 0.7507 0.2879 0.0337 0.9721 0.2583 0.0434 0.9891 Figure A3:15-1 CALGARY : Translog Input Variables S t a t i s t i c s 435 A1 + B11 * l n X H + B12 * l n X G SHARE = - 1 . + BM1 * l n X H + BM2 * l n X G T Y P E A1 B11 B12 • BMI BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 - . 3 6 2 8 - . 1 7 7 6 0 . 2 2 9 9 0 . 1 1 1 3 0 . 0 6 4 4 6 8 . 2 1 6 7 . 0 3 2 3 . 5 148 ( 9 7 . 1 ) ( 1 3 . 4 ) ( 3 6 . 4 ) ( 2 . 9 5 ) ( 7 . 6 8 ) 2 - . 2 5 9 1 - . 1 5 0 8 0 . 2 2 0 1 0 . 1 3 0 1 0 . 0 7 1 1 7 6 . 4 3 0 8 . 4 5 1 9 . 8 363 ( 1 2 3 . ) ( 1 7 . 5 ) ( 5 4 . 1 ) ( 6 . 7 8 ) ( 1 2 . 5 ) 3 - . 2 0 5 0 - . 1 3 7 8 0 . 1 5 4 8 0 . 1 1 2 1 - . 0 7 6 9 8 9 . 6 4 6 9 . 7 7 5 0 . 7 317 ( 2 2 8 . ) ( 2 4 . 9 ) ( 5 8 . 9 ) ( 4 . 9 1 ) ( 1 7 . 9 ) 4 - . 2 8 4 7 - . 1 8 3 9 0 . 2 2 0 4 0 . 0 7 6 7 0 . 0 3 4 6 8 9 . 9 3 2 4 . 8 5 6 8 . 6 248 ( 1 5 0 . ) ( 1 6 . 8 ) ( 5 0 . 4 ) ( 2 . 2 3 ) ( 5 . 2 9 ) 5 - . 2 1 6 1 - . 1 1 5 8 0 . 1 5 4 6 0 . 2 5 0 0 - . 0 8 7 4 9 1 . 5 4 5 0 . 0 7 3 0 . 7 194 ( 2 2 5 . ) ( 1 5 . 6 ) ( 5 0 . 5 ) ( 8 . 0 9 ) ( 1 5 . 0 ) 6 - . 3 6 3 7 - . 1 7 9 9 0 . 2 1 7 6 0 . 0 9 0 5 0 . 0 1 3 2 126.9 3 3 0 . 4 6 5 2 . 1 249 ( 2 3 1 . ) ( 2 2 . 4 ) ( 5 3 . 6 ) . ( 4 . 6 2 ) ( 1 . 9 7 ) 7 - . 3 0 8 0 - . 1 4 6 4 0 . 2 1 1 6 0 . 1 4 5 7 0 . 0 0 7 6 1 1 7 . 4 3 9 8 . 8 7 2 6 . 8 151 ( 1 5 4 . ) ( 1 7 . 5 ) ( 3 6 . 9 ) ( 6 . 0 0 ) ( 0 . 9 2 ) 8 - . 2 1 9 7 - . 1 1 6 4 0 . 1 3 4 4 0 . 2 1 5 4 - . 1 3 2 6 1 2 0 . 0 6 3 4 . 3 1 0 3 8 . 1 257 ( 3 8 9 . ) ( 4 1 . 8 ) ( 5 9 . 8 ) ( 2 4 . 0 ) ( 2 9 . 1 ) 9 - . 2 7 4 2 - . 1 2 4 4 0 . 2 0 1 4 0 . 2 3 4 5 0 . 0 0 6 2 1 2 7 . 3 5 0 3 . 1 8 8 2 . 7 335 ( 2 6 2 . ) ( 2 1 . 2 ) ( 6 0 . 3 ) ( 1 4 . 5 ) ( 1 . 2 5 ) 10 - . 2 5 0 7 - . 1 2 4 3 0 . 1 9 9 6 0 . 2 0 6 7 0 . 0 3 3 4 1 2 6 . 5 5 8 2 . 0 9 8 6 . 3 423 ( 2 4 2 . ) ( 2 6 . 3 ) ( 6 2 . 8 ) ( 1 4 . 7 ) ( 7 . 3 7 ) n o t e : [ 1 ] " t " v a l u e s i n b r a c k e t s [ 2 ] MQH i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s MQX i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s ME i s t h e mean e x p e n d i t u r e # i s t h e number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A 3 : 1 6 - 1 C A L G A R Y : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e [ a l l i n c o m e • l e v e l s ] 4 3 6 A1 + B11 * l n X H + B12 * l n X G SHARE = - 1 . + BM1 * l n X H + BM2 * l n X G T Y P E A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 - . 4 9 4 9 - . 1 9 0 0 0 . 3 0 6 0 0 . 0 8 8 7 0 . 1 7 1 2 5 9 . 9 7 9 . 9 1 9 8 . 9 96 ( 1 4 2 . ) ( 1 4 . 1 ) ( 2 8 . 1 ) ( 2 . 8 1 ) ( 1 2 . 5 ) 2 - . 3 5 1 0 - . 1 4 5 0 0 . 3 0 4 4 0 . 1 7 5 4 0 . 1 7 6 5 6 8 . 7 1 7 3 . 2 3 3 3 . 2 192 ( 1 5 1 . ) ( 1 3 . 1 ) ( 4 0 . 3 ) ( 7 . 0 1 ) ( 1 6 . 1 ) 3 - . 2 6 5 8 - . 1 3 0 1 0 . 2 0 0 7 0 . 1 7 7 4 - . 0 2 0 2 8 2 . 3 3 0 3 . 0 5 2 3 . 6 171 ( 2 1 8 . ) ( 1 5 . 2 ) ( 3 7 . 6 ) ( 5 . 9 0 ) ( 2 . 3 9 ) 4 - . 3 9 8 2 - . 1 5 6 7 0 . 2 8 1 3 0 . 1 7 0 2 0 . 1 1 8 8 8 3 . 4 1 7 4 . 9 3 6 4 . 8 133 ( 1 6 9 . ) ( 8 . 7 6 ) ( 3 4 . 4 ) ( 4 . 0 0 ) ( 1 0 . 1 ) 5 - . 2 7 4 4 - . 1 1 1 7 0 . 1 9 5 3 0 . 2 6 5 4 - . 0 3 5 2 8 5 . 8 3 0 2 . 7 5 3 1 . 9 107 ( 2 1 3 . ) ( 1 2 . 2 ) ( 3 1 . 4 ) ( 8 . 2 0 ) ( 3 . 4 1 ) 6 - . 4 7 1 8 - . 1 9 8 5 0 . 2 8 1 3 0 . 0 7 5 9 0 . 1 0 6 1 1 1 3 . 9 1 8 1 . 2 4 3 5 . 9 157 ( 2 9 4 . ) ( 2 0 . 0 ) ( 3 7 . 0 ) ( 3 . 5 2 ) ( 9 . 1 6 ) 7 - . 3 9 5 3 - . 2 2 4 5 0 . 2 7 0 5 - . 0 0 0 8 0 . 0 8 4 7 1 0 5 . 4 2 4 1 . 4 5 0 2 . 3 90 ( 1 7 5 . ) ( 1 3 . 8 ) ( 3 1 . 0 ) ( 0 . 0 2 ) ( 6 . 7 8 ) 8 - . 2 4 7 5 - . 1 2 5 6 0 . 1 5 6 8 0 . 2 0 5 3 - . 1 0 0 7 1 0 6 . 5 4 7 7 . 3 8 1 1 . 3 145 ( 3 1 0 . ) ( 3 1 . 1 ) ( 3 1 . 8 ) ( 1 8 . 0 ) (11 . 4 ) 9 - . 2 9 9 6 - . 1 4 0 6 0 . 2 5 2 4 0 . 2 0 5 1 0 . 0 7 4 7 1 0 9 . 3 3 8 2 . 0 6 9 3 . 8 196 ( 2 9 6 . ) ( 1 7 . 8 ) ( 5 2 . 3 ) ( 1 0 . 3 ) ( 1 1 . 2 ) 10 - . 2 7 4 0 - . 1 0 8 5 0 . 2 5 8 4 0 . 2 5 9 3 0 . 1 0 7 3 1 0 7 . 7 4 3 4 . 2 7 6 0 . 9 250 ( 2 4 9 . ) ( 1 8 . 6 ) ( 4 9 . 1 ) ( 1 5 . 2 ) ( 1 4 . 7 ) n o t e : [ 1 ] " t " v a l u e s i n b r a c k e t s [ 2 ] MQH i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s MQX i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s ME i s t h e mean e x p e n d i t u r e # i s t h e number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A 3 : 1 7 - 1 C A L G A R Y : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e [ b e l o w mean i n c o m e ] A1 + B11 * l n X H + B12 * l n X G SHARE = - 1 . + BM1 * l n X H + BM2 * l n X G T Y P E A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 - . 2 4 3 1 - . 1 1 2 0 0 . 1 1 6 4 0 . 2 2 3 8 - . 2 2 2 8 8 3 . 5 3 2 8 . 0 5 5 3 . 5 52 ( 1 7 0 . ) ( 2 0 . 7 ) ( 1 9 . 1 ) ( 8 . 5 9 ) ( 1 1 . 2 ) 2 - . 1 9 5 3 - . 1 1 99 0 . 1 2 4 8 0 . 1 3 0 0 - . - 1 0 9 6 8 5 . 0 4 6 0 . 1 7 2 9 . 2 171 ( 1 8 6 . ) ( 2 8 . 1 ) ( 2 3 . 1 ) ( 6 . 0 8 ) ( 4 . 4 8 ) 3 - . 1 6 1 8 - . 0 8 7 0 0 . 0 8 3 8 0 . 2 7 3 2 - . 3 1 9 1 9 8 . 1 6 6 4 . 9 1 0 1 6 . 6 146 ( 2 6 7 . ) ( 1 8 . 9 ) ( 1 1 . 9 ) ( 1 1 . 7 ) ( 7 . 8 3 ) 4 - . 2 0 6 9 - . 1 1 2 1 0 . 1 1 1 5 0 . 2 4 3 9 - . 2 4 1 2 9 7 . 4 4 9 8 . 2 8 0 4 . 3 115 ( 2 5 1 . ) ( 1 5 . 5 ) ( 1 7 . 1 ) ( 7 . 6 0 ) ( 8 . 8 7 ) 5 - . 1 6 9 9 - . 0 8 2 9 0 . 0 8 6 6 0 . 3 6 9 3 - . 2 9 9 9 9 8 . 5 6 3 1 . 1 9 7 5 . 2 87 ( 2 3 0 . ) ( 9 . 5 9 ) ( 8 . 4 9 ) ( 7 . 7 7 ) ( 5 . 5 4 ) 6 - . 2 7 1 7 - . 1 3 7 8 0 . 1 9 0 0 0 . 1 7 9 5 - . 0 0 5 8 149 .1 5 8 5 . 2 1 0 2 1 . 1 92 ( 1 9 9 . ) ( 1 7 . 6 ) ( 2 9 . 0 ) ( 6 . 7 1 ) ( 0 . 3 9 ) 7 - . 2 3 4 7 - . 1 0 3 2 0 . 1 1 1 8 0 . 3 0 2 2 - . 2 6 2 3 135 .1 6 3 1 . 0 1 0 5 8 . 1 61 ( 1 9 9 . ) ( 2 2 . 1 ) ( 9 . 2 3 ) ( 1 5 . 7 ) ( 5 . 8 9 ) 8 - . 1 9 5 0 - . 1 0 6 5 0 . 0 8 6 6 0 . 2 3 3 5 - . 3 2 6 8 1 3 7 . 3 8 3 7 . 6 1 3 3 1 . 9 112 ( 4 3 3 . ) ( 4 9 . 5 ) ( 2 0 . 1 ) ( 2 8 . 6 ) ( 1 6 . 9 ) 9 - . 2 4 9 4 - . 1 1 5 0 0 . 1 3 9 1 0 . 2 4 0 2 - . 1 4 1 4 1 5 2 . 6 6 7 4 . 0 1 1 4 9 . 0 139 ( 3 4 1 . ) ( 2 7 . 7 ) ( 2 2 . 9 ) ( 1 6 . 0 ) ( 7 . 1 5 ) 10 - . 2 2 6 1 - . 1 2 3 5 0 . 1 1 8 8 0 . 1 8 3 8 - . 1 8 2 0 1 5 3 . 7 7 9 5 . 5 1 3 1 2 . 1 173 ( 4 0 8 . ) ( 4 9 . 6 ) ( 2 7 . 2 ) ( 2 1 . 0 ) ( 1 2 . 0 ) n o t e : [ 1 ] " t " v a l u e s i n b r a c k e t s [ 2 ] MQH i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s MQX i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s ME i s t h e mean e x p e n d i t u r e # i s t h e number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A 3 : 1 8 - 1 C A L G A R Y : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e [ a b o v e mean i n c o m e ] 4 3 8 SHARE = A1 + B1 1 * l n X H + B12 * l n X G -1 . + BM1 * l n X H + BM2 * l n X G Y P E A1 B1 1 B1 2 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 - . 5 4 3 5 ( 1 2 6 . ) - . 1 484 ( 9 . 5 8 ) 0 . 4 1 0 1 ( 1 9 . 6 ) 0 . 1 4 1 4 ( 4 . 1 5 ) 0 . 3 0 6 0 ( 1 2 . 4 ) 5 0 . 9 5 5 . 5 1 5 3 . 2 52 2 - . 4 7 7 7 ( 1 3 3 . ) - . 1 4 5 8 ( 6 . 6 9 ) 0 . 3 6 3 1 ( 2 6 . 6 ) 0 . 2 1 7 8 ( 4 . 0 9 ) 0 . 2 6 4 1 ( 1 4 . 6 ) 6 2 . 3 8 9 . 7 2 1 6 . 1 81 3 - . 3 7 2 6 (181 . ) - . 1 4 2 2 ( 1 3 . 4 ) 0 . 2 6 6 2 ( 2 8 . 5 ) 0 . 1 7 5 6 ( 5 . 4 7 ) 0 . 0 7 0 4 ( 4 . 6 6 ) 7 8 . 9 1 7 5 . 8 3 5 3 . 9 69 4 - . 5 2 1 3 ( 1 7 0 . ) - . 1 9 2 1 ( 7 . 8 2 ) 0 . 3 6 4 4 ( 2 2 . 3 ) 0 . 0 8 6 1 ( 1 . 5 5 ) 0 . 2 2 8 4 ( 1 0 . 8 ) 81 . 5 1 0 0 . 5 2 6 4 . 7 68 5 - . 3 4 9 5 ( 1 5 9 . ) - . 1 0 9 6 ( 5 . 9 2 ) 0 . 2 4 4 7 ( 1 9 . 4 ) 0 . 2 7 4 7 ( 5 . 2 8 ) 0 . 0 2 4 8 ( 1 . 2 8 ) 8 7 . 1 2 1 1 . 9 4 1 5 . 9 47 6 - . 5 2 6 4 ( 2 2 5 . ) - . 1 8 9 7 ( 1 2 . 6 ) 0 . 3 2 8 4 ( 2 1 . 3 ) 0 . 1 0 3 3 ( 3 . 3 2 ) 0 . 1 8 5 2 ( 8 . 3 8 ) 9 9 . 9 1 2 5 . 6 3 3 9 . 3 80 7 - . 5 2 0 8 ( 1 6 6 . ) - . 2 6 7 8 ( 1 5 . 5 ) 0 . 3 0 0 5 ( 2 4 . 9 ) - . 0 8 2 1 ( 2 . 2 8 ) 0 . 1 3 8 8 ( 7 . 9 9 ) 9 9 . 2 1 3 5 . 7 3 5 4 . 3 41 8 - . 2 6 9 2 ( 2 0 3 . ) - . 1 0 1 1 ( 1 3 . 4 ) 0 . 1 7 6 6 ( 2 0 . 4 ) 0 . 3 2 4 6 ( 1 3 . 4 ) - . 0 6 2 5 ( 4 . 2 6 ) 9 7 . 7 3 8 4 . 0 6 7 4 . 3 67 9 - . 3 6 6 1 ( 1 6 1 . ) - . 1 5 9 1 ( 1 0 . 2 ) 0 . 2 8 6 6 ( 3 1 . 3 ) 0 . 1 5 1 3 ( 4 . 9 0 ) 0 . 1 2 2 2 1 0 1 . ( 1 0 . 3 ) 3 2 6 4 . 3 5 2 6 . 9 73 1 0 - . 3 0 7 8 ( 1 7 5 . ) - . 0 7 1 0 ( 7 . 6 4 ) 0 . 3 2 0 4 ( 3 3 . 8 ) 0 . 3 4 3 9 ( 1 1 . 9 ) 0 . 1 8 4 0 ( 1 5 . 0 ) 9 8 . 2 3 3 5 . 0 6 1 5 . 0 109 n o t e : [ 1 ] " t " v a l u e s i n b r a c k e t s [ 2 ] MQH i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s MQX i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s ME i s t h e mean e x p e n d i t u r e # i s t h e number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A 3 : 1 9 - 1 C A L G A R Y : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e [ q u a r t i l e 01 ] A1 + B11 * l n X H + B12 * l n X G SHARE = - 1 . + BM1 * l n X H + BM2 * l n X G T Y P E A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 - . 4 5 3 4 - . 1 4 0 2 0 . 3 1 8 7 0 . 1 6 3 1 0 . 1 6 4 0 7 0 . 5 1 0 8 . 6 252.9 44 ( 1 4 5 . ) ( 4 . 9 6 ) ( 9 . 7 6 ) ( 2 . 1 6 ) ( 2 . 7 1 ) 2 - . 2 8 6 7 - . 1 4 3 9 0 . 2 3 4 8 0 . 1 2 3 4 0 . 0 4 8 3 7 3 . 4 2 3 4 . 2 4 1 8 . 7 111 ( 2 0 8 . ) ( 1 3 . 4 ) ( 1 3 . 2 ) ( 2 . 7 4 ) ( 1 . 0 2 ) 3 - . 2 1 8 7 - . 1 1 0 7 0 . 0 8 8 3 0 . 2 5 0 4 - . 3 3 3 4 8 4 . 6 3 8 9 . 0 6 3 8 . 4 102 ( 2 3 2 . ) ( 9 . 7 3 ) ( 3 . 6 3 ) ( 4 . 4 9 ) ( 3 . 6 2 ) 4 - . 3 1 1 3 - . 1 4 2 5 0 . 2 0 6 4 0 . 2 0 8 3 - . 0 2 3 5 8 5 . 5 2 5 2 . 8 4 6 9 . 5 65 ( 1 9 4 . ) ( 8 . 9 1 ) ( 9 . 9 7 ) ( 4 . 2 9 ) ( 0 . 4 7 ) 5 - . 2 3 1 4 - . 1 0 3 9 0 . 1 6 8 6 0 . 2 9 1 5 - . 0 7 3 8 8 4 . 9 3 7 3 . 8 6 2 2 . 8 60 ( 1 8 4 . ) ( 8 . 8 4 ) ( 4 . 2 3 ) ( 4 . 8 1 ) ( 0 . 4 6 ) 6 - . 4 3 1 3 - . 1 8 2 2 0.2595 0 . 0 9 2 2 0 . 0 4 8 5 1 2 8 . 6 238.9 5 3 6 . 3 77 ( 3 0 9 . ) ( 1 4 . 9 ) ( 1 5 . 1 ) ( 2 . 8 5 ) ( 1 . 4 6 ) 7 - . 3 2 4 3 - . 1 7 0 5 0 . 1 4 4 8 0 . 1 0 2 5 - . 2 1 6 8 1 1 0 . 6 3 2 9 . 8 6 2 6 . 1 49 ( 2 3 1 . ) ( 9 . 7 9 ) ( 4 . 9 5 ) ( 2 . 1 0 ) ( 2 . 8 2 ) 8 - . 2 3 1 7 - . 1 0 2 9 0 . 1 9 0 1 0 . 3 0 6 7 0 . 0 9 0 6 1 1 4 . 1 5 5 7 . 5 9 2 8 . 9 78 ( 4 7 9 . ) ( 1 1 . 3 ) ( 1 2 . 2 ) ( 7 . 7 0 ) ( 1 . 5 1 ) 9 - . 2 6 9 9 " - . 1 3 8 0 0 . 1 5 9 1 0 . 2 0 9 4 - . 1 3 5 1 1 1 4 . 1 4 5 1 . 9 7 9 2 . 8 123 ( 7 4 4 . ) ( 2 1 . 9 ) ( 1 3 . 2 ) ( 8 . 9 1 ) ( 3 . 5 2 ) 10 - . 2 5 1 9 - . 1 1 7 4 0 . 1 9 4 2 0 . 2 4 9 9 0 . 0 1 4 2 1 1 5 . 1 5 1 0 . 9 8 7 3 . 7 141 ( 5 8 1 . ) ( 2 8 . 2 ) ( 2 5 . 4 ) ( 1 4 . 8 ) ( 0 . 6 7 ) n o t e : [ 1 ] " t " v a l u e s i n b r a c k e t s [ 2 ] MQH i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s MQX i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s ME i s t h e mean e x p e n d i t u r e # i s t h e number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A 3 : 2 0 - 1 C A L G A R Y : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e [ q u a r t i l e 0 2 ] SHARE = A1 + B11 * l n X H + B12 * l n X G - 1 . + BM1 * l n X H + BM2 * l n X G T Y P E A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 - . 2 9 1 6 - . 0 9 2 7 0 . 1 9 1 0 0 . 3 3 5 4 - . 0 6 4 0 7 6 . 9 2 3 0 . 8 4 1 7 . 7 36 ( 1 5 9 . ) ( 6 . 1 1 ) ( 5 . 4 6 ) ( 5 . 8 3 ) ( 0 . 7 0 ) 2 - . 2 1 1 1 - . 0 8 8 4 0 . 1 6 4 0 0 . 3 3 3 7 - . 0 5 2 4 7 7 . 4 3 6 9 . 6 6 0 0 . 6 101 ( 2 6 2 . ) ( 1 3 . 1 ) ( 1 2 . 6 ) ( 1 0 . 0 ) ( 1 . 1 5 ) 3 - . 1 7 8 3 - . 0 8 4 5 0 . 1 2 9 7 0 . 2 9 7 8 - . 1 7 5 6 9 2 . 3 5 5 8 . 1 8 7 0 . 2 95 ( 2 4 1 . ) ( 1 0 . 7 ) ( 4 . 1 8 ) ( 5 . 9 9 ) ( 1 . 0 8 ) 4 - . 2 2 1 6 - . 1 1 5 5 0 . 1 2 4 5 0 . 2 4 8 0 - . 1 9 4 9 8 6 . 3 4 0 5 . 3 6 6 6 . 8 71 ( 1 9 6 . ) ( 6 . 5 4 ) ( 3 . 6 1 ) ( 2 . 9 9 ) ( 1 . 4 3 ) 5 - . 1 8 6 0 - . 0 7 1 9 0 . 1 2 5 7 0 . 4 5 3 5 - . 1 2 0 0 9 2 . 8 5 3 0 . 2 8 3 6 . 1 47 ( 1 7 1 . ) ( 4 . 6 7 ) ( 2 . 9 3 ) ( 5 . 1 9 ) ( 0 . 5 4 ) 6 - . 3 0 4 1 - . 0 9 5 3 0 . 2 5 7 4 0 . 3 4 3 3 0 . 1 4 5 4 1 3 7 . 2 4 4 9 . 7 8 2 5 . 6 60 ( 1 9 9 . ) ( 6 . 5 3 ) ( 1 7 . 5 ) ( 7 . 4 5 ) ( 4 . 6 9 ) 7 - . 2 3 4 9 - . 0 9 5 7 0 . 1 1 4 6 0 . 3 3 1 1 - . 2 5 2 0 1 1 0 . 3 5 1 1 . 6 8 5 8 . 4 39 ( 1 3 3 . ) ( 1 0 . 2 ) ( 3 . 6 4 ) ( 7 . 9 3 ) ( 2 . 2 1 ) 8 - . 2 0 5 1 - . 0 9 4 6 0 . 1 4 6 5 0 . 3 2 3 7 - . 1 1 0 0 1 2 7 . 6 7 2 6 . 8 1 1 7 1 . 7 72 ( 4 3 8 . ) ( 2 0 . 4 ) ( 8 . 6 7 ) ( 1 3 . 3 ) ( 1 . 5 1 ) 9 - . 2 7 2 6 - . 1 5 5 0 0 . 1 4 0 0 0 . 1 1 5 3 - . 2 0 2 9 1 4 4 . 7 5 6 7 . 3 9 9 7 . 3 95 ( 4 6 2 . ) ( 2 3 . 1 ) ( 9 . 6 1 ) ( 4 . 6 5 ) ( 4 . 5 3 ) 10 - . 2 2 9 9 - . 1 0 7 4 0 . 1 9 1 2 0 . 2 5 8 8 0 . 0 5 6 2 1 3 6 . 2 6 8 6 . 0 1 1 3 7 . 7 117 ( 3 7 5 . ) ( 1 9 . 7 ) ( 1 2 . 1 ) ( 1 0 . 5 ) ( 0 . 9 3 ) n o t e : [ 1 ] " t " v a l u e s i n b r a c k e t s [ 2 ] MQH i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s MQX i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s ME i s t h e mean e x p e n d i t u r e # i s t h e number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A 3 : 2 1 - 1 C A L G A R Y : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e [ q u a r t i l e 0 3 ] 441 A1 + B11 * l n X H + B12 * l n X G SHARE = - 1 . + BM1 * l n X H + BM2 * l n X G T Y P E A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 - . 1 8 7 3 - . 1 1 2 3 0 . 1 0 0 9 0 . 1 6 1 6 - . 2 3 4 3 9 8 . 2 5 4 6 . 6 8 5 8 . 8 16 ( 9 5 . 5 ) ( 6 . 9 8 ) ( 7 . 6 2 ) ( 1 . 5 4 ) ( 3 . 4 7 ) 2 - . 1 7 6 3 - . 0 9 9 8 0 . 1 1 3 1 0 . 2 2 7 2 - . 0 5 0 7 9 5 . 9 5 9 0 . 6 9 1 4 . 9 70 ( 1 3 9 . ) ( 2 0 . 0 ) ( 2 0 . 5 ) ( 9 . 0 5 ) ( 2 . 2 6 ) 3 - . 1 4 1 5 - . 0 7 6 6 0 . 0 9 0 1 0 . 3 2 2 8 - . 1 7 0 7 1 0 8 . 9 8 6 3 . 9 1 2 8 9 . 2 51 ( 1 8 7 . ) ( 9 . 7 1 ) ( 7 . 2 9 ) ( 6 . 9 9 ) ( 1 . 8 0 ) 4 - . 1 9 0 5 - . 0 9 9 7 0 . 0 9 5 0 0 . 2 8 9 9 - . 3 0 2 3 1 1 5 . 2 6 4 8 . 1 1 0 2 6 . 1 44 ( 1 5 4 . ) ( 9 . 0 7 ) ( 8 . 7 7 ) ( 6 . 2 2 ) ( 5 . 3 6 ) 5 - . 1 5 4 6 - . 0 8 7 7 0 . 0 2 4 3 0 . 3 0 2 7 - . 6 9 6 1 1 0 5 . 1 7 4 9 . 6 1 1 3 8 . 7 40 ( 1 2 9 . ) ( 6 . 8 9 ) ( 0 . 9 3 ) ( 3 . 8 8 ) ( 3 . 9 7 ) 6 - . 2 2 4 7 - . 1 0 5 7 0 . 1 1 8 7 0 . 2 6 7 3 - . 2 1 7 1 1 7 1 . 4 8 3 9 . 3 1 3 8 7 . 7 32 ( 2 0 8 . ) ( 2 0 . 5 ) ( 1 2 . 1 ) ( 1 4 . 6 ) ( 7 . 1 8 ) 7 - . 2 3 5 9 - . 1 2 5 2 0 . 1 2 8 9 0 . 2 2 6 6 - . 2 1 3 1 1 7 8 . 9 8 4 2 . 6 1 4 1 2 . 2 22 ( 2 2 3 . ) ( 1 9 . 8 ) ( 7 . 2 4 ) ( 9 . 0 5 ) ( 2 . 9 9 ) 8 - . 1 8 1 7 - . 1 0 0 3 0 . 0 8 3 0 0 . 2 3 6 2 - . 2 8 8 0 1 5 4 . 9 1 0 3 7 . 1 1 6 2 0 . 3 40 ( 2 5 0 . ) ( 3 2 . 4 ) ( 1 3 . 6 ) ( 1 7 . 4 ) ( 1 1 . 5 ) 9 - . 2 1 4 2 - . 0 9 1 0 0 . 1 0 5 1 0 . 3 1 2 5 - . 2 5 3 6 1 6 9 . 8 9 0 4 . 3 1 4 7 6 . 6 44 ( 1 6 8 . ) ( 1 8 . 4 ) ( 6 . 9 1 ) ( 1 5 . 6 ) ( 3 . 8 3 ) 10 - . 2 2 0 5 - . 1 2 1 6 0 . 0 9 8 9 0 . 1 8 3 6 - . 2 3 5 3 1 9 0 . 3 1 0 2 4 . 3 1 6 7 6 . 3 56 ( 2 6 0 . ) ( 2 7 . 6 ) ( 1 2 . 4 ) ( 1 0 . 8 ) ( 8 . 4 2 ) n o t e : [ 1 ] " t " v a l u e s i n b r a c k e t s [ 2 ] MQH i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s MQX i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s ME i s t h e mean e x p e n d i t u r e # i s t h e number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A 3 : 2 2 - 1 C A L G A R Y : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e [ q u a r t i l e 0 4 ] i n c o m e e l a s t i c i t y mean b e l o w a b o v e T Y P E 1 Q01 0 . 7 8 4 1 0 . 7 8 0 2 0 . 8 2 1 6 Q02 0 . 6 8 4 9 0 . 7 0 5 1 0 . 7 0 6 1 Q03 0 . 5 2 9 9 0 . 5 7 1 3 0 . 5 7 3 2 Q04 0 . 3 7 5 1 0 . 3 5 4 5 0 . 3 5 3 0 T Y P E 2 Q01 0 . 7 4 8 2 0 . 7 6 5 4 0 . 8 2 8 6 Q02 0 . 4 9 0 8 0 . 4 8 7 8 0 . 4 8 7 3 Q03 0 . 4 1 7 1 0 . 4 4 4 5 0 . 4 4 5 7 Q04 0 . 3 1 9 8 0 . 3 5 5 4 0 . 3 5 6 2 T Y P E 3 Q01 0 . 6 1 0 9 0 . 6 1 9 7 0 . 6 2 0 9 Q02 0 . 4 4 1 4 0 . 4 3 5 1 0 . 4 3 4 7 Q03 0 . 3 7 0 1 0 . 3 7 0 1 0 . 3 7 0 2 Q04 0 . 2 9 1 0 0 . 3 1 4 4 0 . 3 2 7 0 T Y P E 4 Q01 0 . 7 6 3 1 0 . 7 7 3 6 0 . 7 8 1 6 Q02 0 . 5 5 0 0 0 . 5 6 9 8 0 . 5 6 8 0 Q03 0 . 4 3 5 7 0 . 4 4 4 0 0 . 4 4 4 3 Q04 0 . 4 0 4 3 0 . 4 0 4 1 0 . 4 0 3 9 T Y P E 5 Q01 0 . 6 1 2 9 0 . 6 2 8 3 0 . 6 2 7 3 Q02 0 . 4 5 7 0 0 . 4 6 5 7 0 . 4 7 3 1 Q03 0 . 4 0 9 8 0 . 4 6 4 4 0 . 4 6 6 9 Q04 0 . 4 1 7 1 0 . 3 4 2 6 0 . 3 4 1 8 T Y P E 6 Q01 0 . 7 7 7 2 0 . 7 7 8 1 0 . 8 0 9 1 Q02 0 . 6 6 6 2 0 . 6 7 0 4 0 . 6 7 3 2 Q03 0 . 5 2 7 8 0 . 6 1 0 2 0 . 5 9 4 7 Q04 0 . 4 3 6 2 0 . 4 4 4 8 0 . 4 4 8 7 T Y P E 7 Q01 0 . 7 2 3 5 0 . 7 2 4 7 0 . 7 2 7 1 Q02 0 . 5 6 1 6 0 . 5 4 9 8 0 . 5 4 4 4 Q03 0 . 4 7 7 4 0 . 4 8 6 0 0 . 4 9 0 9 Q04 0 . 4 6 0 2 0 . 4 6 1 9 0 . 4 6 3 4 T Y P E 8 Q01 0 . 5 2 2 2 0 . 5 3 4 4 0 . 5 4 7 8 Q02 0 . 4 5 2 5 0 . 4 7 2 1 0 . 4 8 4 9 Q03 0 . 4 2 1 7 0 . 4 3 4 0 0 . 4 4 3 0 Q04 0 . 3 6 6 6 0 . 3 6 5 7 0 . 3 6 5 1 T Y P E 9 Q01 0 . 6 0 4 6 0 . 6 1 1 8 0 . 6 1 8 3 Q02 0 . 5 0 6 8 0 . 5 1 1 0 0 . 5 1 2 1 Q03 0 . 4 8 8 5 0 . 4 8 0 3 0 . 4 7 8 0 Q04 0 . 4 2 9 9 0 . 4 3 5 6 0 . 4 4 3 3 T Y P E 10 Q01 0 . 5 5 8 8 0 . 5 7 5 8 0 . 5 7 0 5 Q02 0 . 4 7 3 2 0 . 4 8 9 4 0 . 4 8 7 6 Q03 0 . 4 2 9 5 0 . 4 4 6 2 0 . 4 5 8 8 Q04 0 . 4 1 4 6 0 . 4 1 5 3 0 . 4 1 5 9 F i g u r e A 3 : 2 3-1 CALGARY : I n c o m e 442 p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y mean b e l o w a b o v e -1 . 0 1 9 9 -1 . 0 3 2 6 - 1 . 0 2 1 4 - 1 . 0 0 8 6 - 1 . 5 1 9 7 - 1 . 2 6 0 3 - 1 . 2 3 0 1 - 1 . 3 8 3 4 - 0 . 7 9 3 5 - 0 . 8 7 4 5 - 0 . 8 5 7 6 - 0 . 6 1 6 5 - 0 . 9 9 2 1 - 1 . 0 4 9 4 - 1 . 0 1 6 6 - 0 . 9 8 9 9 - 1 . 6 2 6 4 - 1 . 2 2 6 4 - 1 . 1 3 1 3 - 1 . 1 5 4 9 - 0 . 6 5 4 5 - 0 . 8 8 2 8 - 0 . 9 1 5 6 - 0 . 6 9 9 9 - 1 . 0 4 0 7 - 0 . 9 9 5 5 - 1 . 0 2 7 2 - 0 . 9 9 3 4 - 1 . 7 3 8 3 - 1 . 1 2 6 8 - 1 . 1 4 3 7 - 1 . 2 2 7 5 - 0 . 7 4 5 2 - 0 . 8 8 9 9 - 0 . 9 1 8 5 - 0 . 6 9 4 4 - 1 . 0 0 6 9 - 0 . 9 9 8 3 - 0 . 9 9 0 9 - 0 . 9 9 7 2 - 1 . 5 5 8 6 - 1 . 1 5 7 7 - 1 . 1 0 9 8 - 1 . 2 9 0 3 - 0 . 7 4 6 9 - 0 . 8 8 4 2 - 0 . 8 9 0 8 - 0 . 6 0 5 2 - 1 . 0 3 5 2 - 1 . 0 1 5 6 - 0 . 9 8 9 0 - 0 . 9 9 3 4 - 1 . 4 7 7 6 - 1 . 1 5 3 4 - 1 . 0 6 9 2 - 1 . 0 9 2 4 - 0 . 8 4 8 7 - 0 . 8 7 0 4 - 0 . 9 0 4 1 - 0 . 8 5 3 7 - 0 . 9 8 3 7 - 1 . 0 2 0 9 - 1 . 0 1 6 4 - 1 . 0 0 1 7 - 1 . 4 6 6 8 - 1 . 2 5 9 4 - 1 . 1 5 8 0 -1 . 3 2 7 6 - 0 . 7 4 6 9 - 0 . 8 6 4 2 - 0 . 8 9 6 5 - 0 . 6 7 8 8 - 1 . 0 0 8 8 - 1 . 0 1 2 1 - 0 . 9 9 7 5 - 0 . 9 9 9 4 - 2 . 1 4 6 2 - 1 . 1 8 0 5 - 1 . 2 2 1 4 - 1 . 3 5 4 8 - 0 . 6 4 7 4 - 0 . 8 6 2 4 - 0 . 8 5 2 7 - 0 . 7 0 0 7 - 1 . 0 0 2 1 - 0 . 9 9 7 5 - 1 . 0 0 9 0 - 0 . 9 8 2 7 - 1 . 4 3 1 2 - 1 . 1 1 3 5 - 1 . 1 4 6 8 - 1 . 2 0 4 6 - 0 . 8 4 7 0 - 0 . 9 1 2 4 - 0 . 8 9 2 4 - 0 . 6 9 1 2 - 1 . 0 3 6 7 - 1 . 0 0 1 4 - 1 . 0 1 2 0 7 0 . 9 9 9 4 - 1 . 5 7 4 7 - 1 . 1 0 4 4 - 1 . 1 1 9 9 - 1 . 3 6 9 7 - 0 . 7 7 7 5 - 0 . 9 1 7 0 - 0 . 8 9 7 6 - 0 . 6 9 1 2 - 1 . 1 0 9 7 - 1 . 0 1 2 6 - 1 . 0 1 7 3 - 0 . 9 9 6 0 - 1 . 4 4 3 3 - 1 . 0 8 5 0 - 1 . 1 6 6 9 -1 . 3 2 3 9 - 0 . 9 8 1 5 - 0 . 9 5 6 0 - 0 . 8 8 1 7 - 0 . 6 8 8 3 a n d P r i c e E l a s t i c i t i e s 443 A L L BELOW ABOVE Q01 Q02 Q03 Q04 T Y P E 1 n o r m a l BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 2 7 0 . 5 0 2 3 8 . 4 7 6 4 . 0 6 2 1 5 . 0 3 1 5 3 . 3 2 1 2 3 . 4 1 1 7 6 . 8 6 1 3 0 . 3 9 9 2 . 9 5 1 3 4 . 0 4 81 . 9 0 1 0 4 . 2 9 1 2 3 . 3 8 1 9 . 2 7 2 0 8 . 2 1 1 2 0 . 2 0 8 8 . 5 3 6 3 . 3 4 61 . 4 4 51 . 7 0 1 9 . 4 8 T Y P E 2 n o r m a l BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 683. 1 3 579.04 208. 17 4 0 9 . 3 7 2 6 2 . 3 7 2 9 4 . 0 0 506.19 388.90 234.58 1 8 3 . 0 8 9 8 . 2 0 1 6 9 . 7 6 3 2 0 . 0 4 3 0 8 . 11 2 3 . 8 5 3 5 3 . 8 0 2 7 9 . 0 9 1 4 9 . 4 2 2 2 6 . 5 7 1 4 3 . 4 2 1 6 6 . 2 8 T Y P E 3 n o r m a l BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 8 8 2 . 6 8 7 7 7 . 7 8 2 0 9 . 8 1 4 8 2 . 5 1 4 5 6 . 0 0 5 3 . 0 4 5 3 8 . 2 0 4 7 4 . 18 1 2 8 . 0 5 2 0 0 . 2 5 1 8 2 . 6 0 3 5 . 3 0 3 5 0 . 9 3 3 1 3 . 9 0 7 4 . 0 5 3 4 7 . 3 2 3 1 2 . 7 2 6 9 . 19 1 9 9 . 9 6 171 . 7 0 5 6 . 5 2 T Y P E 4 n o r m a l BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 5 5 0 . 5 7 5 3 4 . 5 7 3 2 . 0 0 3 1 4 . 9 0 2 6 5 . 7 6 9 8 . 2 9 3 9 9 . 1 9 3 5 6 . 2 7 8 5 . 8 4 1 7 1 . 0 2 1 2 2 . 0 6 9 7 . 9 1 2 0 6 . 8 5 1 8 5 . 0 4 4 3 . 6 2 2 3 9 . 2 9 2 1 8 . 1 0 4 2 . 3 8 1 6 3 . 0 5 1 4 5 . 6 2 3 4 . 8 5 T Y P E 5 n o r m a l BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 5 8 5 . 5 3 3 2 5 . 3 0 3 2 5 . 3 3 1 3 9 . 9 4 2 0 6 . 4 1 1 7 4 . 7 5 1 5 4 . 3 9 5 1 0 . 7 4 2 9 4 . 5 9 2 8 5 . 3 3 1 2 7 . 7 5 1 9 0 . 7 6 1 5 3 . 7 5 1 3 9 . 8 3 1 4 9 . 5 7 6 1 . 4 2 8 0 . 0 1 2 4 . 3 8 3 1 . 3 0 4 1 . 9 9 2 9 . 1 2 T Y P E 6 n o r m a l BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 6 0 9 . 3 7 4 1 8 . 7 5 2 7 9 . 3 5 2 1 0 . 5 0 2 4 8 . 4 5 1 9 4 . 2 9 1 2 5 . 0 1 5 9 7 . 7 0 3 7 6 . 6 7 2 4 6 . 6 6 1 7 7 . 4 2 2 4 3 . 5 2 1 7 0 . 1 0 9 0 . 8 3 2 3 . 3 2 8 4 . 1 5 6 5 . 3 8 6 6 . 1 7 9 . 8 6 4 8 . 3 7 6 8 . 3 7 T Y P E 7 n o r m a l BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 3 5 9 . 8 6 2 3 9 . 0 4 2 1 4 . 0 4 1 1 3 . 2 6 1 6 5 . 7 0 1 3 1 . 8 7 9 1 . 7 6 3 4 1 . 3 6 2 1 4 . 0 7 1 5 6 . 7 7 . 8 7 . 0 3 1 5 0 . 2 6 9 6 . 4 7 7 1 . 3 1 3 7 . 0 0 4 9 . 9 3 1 1 4 . 5 5 5 2 . 4 6 3 0 . 8 6 7 0 . 8 0 4 0 . 9 0 T Y P E 8 n o r m a l BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 8 7 3 . 2 7 4 8 2 . 4 1 4 7 1 . 5 8 2 1 7 . 9 0 3 2 8 . 8 0 3 1 3 . 5 9 1 6 9 . 5 1 6 4 0 . 2 2 3 7 2 . 4 6 3 2 4 . 5 7 1 5 5 . 4 8 2 4 1 . 6 5 2 4 4 . 8 3 1 0 3 . 2 7 4 6 6 . 1 0 2 1 9 . 9 0 2 9 4 . 0 3 1 2 4 . 8 4 1 7 4 . 3 0 1 3 7 . 5 2 1 3 2 . 4 8 T Y P E 9 n o r m a l BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 906 , 8 1 1 , 191 , 98 29 37 5 8 1 . 0 2 4 8 6 . 2 6 1 8 9 . 5 1 4 8 1 . 6 7 3 4 3 . 14 2 7 7 . 0 7 201 , 1 54, 93 , 1 2 21 81 5 2 6 . 7 4 4 4 8 . 8 8 1 5 5 . 7 3 3 7 3 . 4 9 2 9 9 . 7 6 1 4 7 . 4 5 1 5 6 . 2 1 1 0 3 . 5 5 1 0 5 . 3 2 T Y P E 10 n o r m a l BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 1 0 7 2 . 3 3 9 7 0 . 5 0 2 0 3 . 6 5 6 8 5 . 2 9 5 3 7 . 4 9 2 9 5 . 6 1 6 3 8 . 6 6 4 5 8 . 9 0 3 5 9 . 5 1 2 9 8 . 0 0 1 9 9 . 8 7 1 9 6 . 2 5 5 7 4 . 3 9 4 4 1 . 1 6 2 6 6 . 4 5 4 3 7 . 10 3 2 6 . 7 5 2 2 0 . 6 8 2 2 0 . 4 0 1 4 2 . 12 1 5 6 . 5 7 F i g u r e A 3 : 2 4 - 1 C A L G A R Y : L o g L i k e l i h o o d V a l u e s [ t e s t o f u n i t y i n c o m e e l a s t i c i t y ] 0000 Demand C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 " M O D E L " M O D I F I E D HOUSEHOLDS 10 1 1 163 1 -51 1 0 10 2 1834 1 123 7 10 3 2359 1 - 2 5 79 10 4 3239 1 608 137 10 5 5812 1 3685 930 10 6 1063 2 - 1 3 9 27 10 7 1977 2 946 202 10 8 2871 2 1 755 319 10 9 3820 2 2850 543 1010 4501 2 3799 766 1011 5032 2 4545 971 1012 5667 2 4995 1 1 04 1013 6428 2 5944 1 394 1014 721 1 2 7060 1 768 1015 7987 2 8083 2 1 3 5 1016 9253 2 9707 2 7 8 5 101712611 21 6461 6623 1018 2809 3 630 186 1019 4928 3 3085 634 1020 6572 3 4889 999 1 021 7421 3 5984 1211 1 022 8199 3 671 3 1 403 1 023 9039 3 7935 1 774 1 024 9850 3 8904 2004 1 0 2 5 1 0 9 7 8 31 0339 2422 1 0 2 6 1 2 4 8 0 3 1 2 4 9 4 321 6 1 0 2 7 1 6 9 0 6 318981 5926 1 028 1740 4 40 87 1 029 3266 4 1 430 293 1 030 4109 4 2163 404 1 031 5249 4 3068 595 1 032 6188 4 4258 898 1 033 7145 4 4829 1 061 1 034 8424 4 6245 1 492 1 035 9672 4 8621 2363 1 0 3 6 1 3 9 3 3 41 5679 61 62 1 037 4202 5 1615 394 1 038 6254 5 3974 802 1 039 7084 5 4506 1 022 1 040 81 37 5 5896 1 286 1 041 9557 5 7665 1 726 1 0 4 2 1 1 2 6 6 5 9766 2258 1 0 4 3 1 4 1 9 8 51 3912 4069 1 044 3301 6 -121 44 1 045 4584 6 181 83 1 046 5979 6 998 207 1 047 8189 6 3456 802 1 0 4 8 1 2 9 2 4 6 9402 2769 1 049 2969 7 515 1 1 3 1 050 5618 7 3251 666 1051 7193 7 4 9 0 5 1084 1052 8 3 4 6 7 5597 1319 1053 9596 7 6990 1758 1 0 5 4 1 2 0 6 9 7 1 1 4 2 2 3591 1 0 5 5 1 7 7 8 6 7 1 8 9 3 0 7889 1056 6383 8 351 4 747 1057 8747 8 5645 1 272 1058 9556 8 7 3 9 6 1652 1 0 5 9 1 0 5 4 7 8 81 44 1847 1 0 6 0 1 1 3 9 7 8 9629 2298 1 0 6 1 1 2 0 7 2 8 1 0 3 6 3 2660 1 0 6 2 1 2 8 2 7 8 1 0 2 0 9 2402 1 0 6 3 1 3 8 1 6 8 1 1 6 9 0 2840 1 0 6 4 1 5 0 9 3 8 1 3 8 1 0 3682 1 0 6 5 1 6 3 2 8 814741 4004 1 0 6 6 2 1 5 6 0 8 2 2 5 3 8 7936 1067 2678 9 - 3 4 0 92 1068 5620 9 2483 455 1069 7283 9 3873 807 1070 8 3 3 9 9 5051 1 124 1071 8 8 9 3 • 9 5 9 0 5 1 380 1072 9579 9 641 9 1549 1073 9931 9 6541 1639 1 0 7 4 1 0 3 9 2 9 7317 1863 1 0 7 5 1 0 9 7 3 ' 9 8 2 5 6 2206 1 0 7 6 1 1 5 3 6 9 881 1 2422 1 0 7 7 1 2 3 3 0 9 9751 2809 1 0 7 8 1 3 1 5 4 91 0803 3313 1 0 7 9 1 4 8 0 8 9 1 4 7 0 6 5321 1 0 8 0 2 2 5 9 4 9293981 4604 1081 3 6 4 5 1 0 - 2 7 7 1 94 1082 6 8 0 5 1 0 2939 619 1083 7669 1 0 4 3 2 5 940 1084 8393 10 4958 1 1 58 1085 9119 10 561 4 1 281 1086 9760 10 6 0 4 2 1457 1 0 8 7 1 0 1 3 3 10 6 6 6 9 1 535 108810511 10 6996 1713 1 0 8 9 1 0 8 2 5 10 7657 1859 1 0 9 0 1 1 1 3 8 10 7676 1814 1 0 9 1 1 1 6 1 8 10 8370 2044 1 0 9 2 1 2 1 2 4 1 0 8 5 7 4 2129 1 0 9 3 1 2 7 0 6 10 9286 2128 1 0 9 4 1 3 4 0 5 1010627 271 2 1 0 9 5 1 4 0 6 0 1010887 2858 1 0 9 6 1 4 9 1 5 1012911 3533 1 0 9 7 1 5 8 5 7 1013372 3465 1 0 9 8 1 6 7 2 7 1013910 3982 1 0991 924-5 1017157 5542 1 1 0 2 5 4 2 0 1 0 3 0 3 6 6 1 4 0 3 4 F i g u r e A 3 : 2 5 - 1 C A L G A R Y : Demand C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 0000 Demand C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 Mean A F T E R TAX INCOME by H o u s e h o l d T Y P E 20 1 1 5 3 . 2 2 5 2 . 9 4 1 7 . 7 8 5 8 . 8 20 2 2 1 6 . 1 4 1 8 . 7 6 0 0 . 6 9 1 4 . 9 20 3 3 5 3 . 9 6 3 8 . 4 8 7 0 . 2 1 2 8 9 . 20 4 2 6 4 . 7 4 6 9 . 5 6 6 6 . 8 1 0 2 6 . 20 5 4 1 5 . 9 6 2 2 . 8 8 3 6 . 1 1 1 3 9 . 20 6 3 3 9 . 3 5 3 6 . 3 8 2 5 . 6 1 3 8 8 20 7 3 5 4 . 3 6 2 6 . 1 8 5 8 . 4 1 4 1 2 20 8 6 7 4 . 3 9 2 8 . 9 1 1 7 2 . 1 6 2 0 20 9 5 2 6 . 9 7 9 2 . 8 9 9 7 . 3 1 4 7 7 2 0 1 0 6 1 5 . 0 8 7 3 . 7 1 1 3 8 . 1 6 7 6 0000 Demand PARAMETERS b y T Y P E 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 01) 21 1 0 - . 5 4 3 - . 1 4 8 . 4101 . 1 4 1 4 . 3 0 6 0 5 0 . 9 2 5 5 . 5 3 1 5 3 . 2 1 . 6 1 3 21 2 o- . 4 7 8 - . 1 4 6 . 3631 . 21 7 8 . 2 6 4 1 6 2 . 2 5 8 9 . 7 1 2 1 6 . 1 1 . 6 2 9 21 3 o- . 3 7 3 - . 1 4 2 . 2 6 6 2 . 1 7 5 6 . 0 7 0 4 7 8 . 8 6 1 7 5 . 8 3 5 3 . 9 1 .631 21 4 o- . 5 2 1 - . 1 9 2 . 3 6 4 4 . 0861 . 2 2 8 4 8 1 . 4 6 1 0 0 . 5 2 6 4 . 7 1 . 6 6 7 21 5 0 - . 3 5 0 - . 1 1 0 . 2 4 4 7 . 2 7 4 7 . 0 2 4 8 8 7 . 0 6 2 1 1 . 9 4 1 5 . 9 1 . 6 5 9 21 6 o- . 5 2 6 - . 1 9 0 . 3 2 8 4 . 1 0 3 3 . 1 8 5 2 9 9 . 8 6 1 2 5 . 6 3 3 9 . 3 1 . 7 8 0 21 7 o- . 5 2 1 - . 2 6 8 . 3 0 0 5 - . 0 8 2 . 1 3 8 8 9 9 . 2 3 1 3 5 . 7 3 5 4 . 3 1 . 8 2 7 21 8 o- . 2 6 9 - . 101 . 1 7 6 6 . 3 2 4 6 - . 0 6 3 9 7 . 6 6 3 8 4 . 0 6 7 4 . 3 1 . 8 5 7 21 9 o- . 3 6 6 - . 1 5 9 . 2 8 6 6 . 1 5 1 3 . 1 2 2 2 1 0 1 . 3 2 6 4 . 3 5 2 6 . 9 1 . 8 6 2 2110 0 - . 3 0 8 - .071 . 3 2 0 4 . 3 4 3 9 . 1 8 4 0 9 8 . 1 6 3 3 5 . 0 6 1 5 . 0 1 . 8 9 2 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 02) 22 1 o- . 4 5 3 - . 1 4 0 . 3 1 8 7 . 1 631 . 1 6 4 0 7 0 . 5 3 1 0 8 . 6 2 5 2 . 9 1 . 6 1 2 22 2 0 - . 2 8 7 - . 1 4 4 . 2 3 4 8 . 1 2 3 4 . 0 4 8 3 7 3 . 4 2 2 3 4 . 2 4 1 8 . 7 1 . 6 1 3 22 3 0 - . 2 1 9 - . 1 1 1 . 0 8 8 3 . 2 5 0 4 - . 3 3 3 8 4 . 6 0 3 8 9 . 0 6 3 8 . 4 1 .651 22 4 o- . 3 1 1 - . 1 4 2 . 2 0 6 4 . 2 0 8 3 - . 0 2 3 8 5 . 5 4 2 5 2 . 8 4 6 9 . 5 1 . 6 9 4 22 5 0 - . 2 3 1 - . 1 0 4 . 1 6 8 6 . 291 5 - . 0 7 4 8 4 . 8 8 3 7 3 . 8 6 2 2 . 8 1 .691 22 6 o- . 431 - . 1 8 2 . 2 5 9 5 . 0 9 2 2 . 0 4 8 5 1 2 8 . 6 2 3 8 . 9 5 3 6 . 3 1 . 7 9 5 22 7 o- . 3 2 4 - . 1 7 0 . 1 4 4 8 . 1 0 2 5 - . 2 1 7 1 1 0 . 6 3 2 9 . 8 6 2 6 . 11 . 8 4 0 22 8 0 - . 2 3 2 - . 1 0 3 . 1901 . 3 0 6 7 . 0 9 0 6 1 1 4 . 1 5 5 7 . 5 9 2 8 . 9 1 . 8 7 9 22 9 0 - . 2 7 0 - . 1 3 8 . 1591 . 2 0 9 4 - . 1 3 5 1 1 4 . 1 4 5 1 . 9 7 9 2 . 8 1 .871 221 0 o- . 2 5 2 - . 1 1 7 . 1 9 4 2 . 2 4 9 9 . 0 1 4 2 1 1 5 . 1 5 1 0 . 9 8 7 3 . 7 1 . 8 9 9 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 03) 23 1 0 - . 2 9 2 - . 0 9 3 . 1 9 1 0 . 3 3 5 4 - . 0 6 4 7 6 . 9 0 2 3 0 . 8 4 1 7 . 7 1 . 5 8 7 23 2 0 - . 2 1 1 - . 0 8 8 . 1 6 4 0 . 3 3 3 7 - . 0 5 2 7 7 . 4 2 3 6 9 . 6 6 0 0 . 6 1 . 6 3 4 23 3 o- . 1 7 8 -. 0 8 4 . 1 2 9 7 . 2 9 7 8 - . 1 7 6 9 2 . 3 0 5 5 8 . 1 8 7 0 . 2 1 . 6 7 7 23 4 o- . 2 2 2 - . 1 1 6 . 1 2 4 5 . 2 4 8 0 - . 1 9 5 8 6 . 2 9 4 0 5 . 3 6 6 6 . 8 1 . 7 0 4 23 5 o- . 1 8 6 - . 0 7 2 . 1 2 5 7 . 4 5 3 5 - . 1 2 0 9 2 . 8 4 5 3 0 . 2 8 3 6 . 1 1 . 6 8 0 23 6 0 - . 3 0 4 - . 0 9 5 . 2 5 7 4 . 3 4 3 3 . 1 4 5 4 1 3 7 . 2 4 4 9 . 7 8 2 5 . 6 1 . 8 1 5 23 7 o- . 2 3 5 - . 0 9 6 . 1 1 4 6 . 331 1- . 2 5 2 1 1 0 . 3 5 1 1 . 6 8 5 8 . 4 1 .831 23 8 o- . 2 0 5 - . 0 9 5 . 1 4 6 5 . 3 2 3 7 - . 1 1 0 1 2 7 . 6 7 2 6 . 8 1 1 7 2 . 1 . 8 7 8 23 9 o- . 2 7 3 - . 1 5 5 . 1 4 0 0 . 1 1 5 3 - . 2 0 3 1 4 4 . 7 5 6 7 . 3 9 9 7 . 3 1 . 8 6 8 2310 o- . 2 3 0 - . 1 0 7 . 1 9 1 2 . 2 5 8 8 . 0 5 6 2 1 3 6 . 2 6 8 6 . 0 1 1 3 8 . 1 . 9 0 0 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 04) 24 1 0 - . 1 8 7 -. 1 1 2 . 1 0 0 9 . 1 6 1 6 - . 2 3 4 9 8 . 2 0 5 4 6 . 6 8 5 8 . 8 1 . 6 0 9 24 2 0 - . 1 76~ . 1 0 0 . 1 1 3 1 . 2 2 7 2 - . 0 5 1 9 5 . 9 2 5 9 0 . 6 9 1 4 . 9 1 . 6 3 6 24 3 o- . 1 4 1 - . 0 7 7 . 0901 . 3 2 2 8 - . 1 7 1 1 0 8 . 9 8 6 3 . 9 1 2 8 9 . 1 . 6 6 5 24 4 o- . 1 9 1 - . 1 0 0 . 0 9 5 0 . 2 8 9 9 - . 3 0 2 1 1 5 . 2 6 4 8 . 1 1 0 2 6 . .691 24 5 o- . 1 5 5 - . 0 8 8 . 0 2 4 3 . 3 0 2 7 - . 6 9 6 1 0 5 . 1 7 4 9 . 6 1 1 3 9 . . 6 8 4 24 6 o- . 2 2 5 - . 1 0 6 . 1 1 8 7 . 2 6 7 3 - . 2 1 7 1 7 1 . 4 8 3 9 . 3 1 3 8 8 . . 8 1 8 24 7 o- . 2 3 6 - . 1 2 5 . 1 2 8 9 . 2 2 6 6 - . 2 1 3 1 7 8 . 9 8 4 2 . 6 1 4 1 2 . . 8 4 7 24 8 o- . 1 8 2 -. 1 0 0 . 0 8 3 0 . 2 3 6 2 - . 2 8 8 1 5 4 . 9 1 0 3 7 . 1 6 2 0 . . 8 6 9 24 9 o- . 2 1 4 - .091 . 1 051 . 3 1 2 5 - . 2 5 4 1 6 9 . 8 9 0 4 . 3 1 4 7 7 . . 8 6 6 2410 o- . 2 2 1 - . 1 2 2 . 0 9 8 9 . 1 8 3 6 - . 2 3 5 1 9 0 . 3 1 0 2 4 . 1 6 7 6 . . 9 0 9 F i g u r e A 3 : 2 5 - 1 ( c o n t ) C A L G A R Y : Demand C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 446 0000 Demand C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 " M O D E L " DWELLINGS 30 1 40 1 1 3035 31 4 1 3069 93 3 2 30 2 57 1 1 3036 57 4 1 3070 99 3 2 30 3 64 1 1 3037 73 4 1 3071 102 3 2 30 4 70 1 1 3038 88 4 1 3072 1 04 3 2 30 5 76 1 1 3039 98 4 1 3073 1 07 3 2 30 6 82 1 1 3040 107 4 1 3074 109 3 2 30 7 87 1 1 3041 1 17 4 1 3075 1 1 1 3 2 30 8 9 3 . 1 1 3042 1 36 4 1 3076 1 14 3 2 30 9 97 1 1 3043 98 5 1 3077 1 16 3 2 301 0 101 1 1 3044 39 1 2 3078 1 18 3 2 301 1 105 1 1 3045 54 1 2 3079 121 3 2 301 2 1 09 1 1 3046 63 1 2 3080 123 3 2 301 3 1 1 4 1 1 3047 68 1 2 3081 1 26 3 2 3014 119 1 1 3048 74 1 2 3082 1 28 3 2 301 5 125 1 1 3049 79 1 2 3083 131 3 2 301 6 131 1 1 3050 83 1 2 3084 133 3 2 301 7 1 48 1 1 3051 87 1 2 3085 136 3 2 3018 85 2 1 3052 90 1 2 3086 139 3 2 301 9 123 2 1 3053 94 1 2 3087 141 3 2 3020 50 3 1 3054 97 1 2 3088 1 44 3 2 3021 66 3 1 3055 101 1 2 3089 1 49 3 2 3022 76 3 1 3056 1 06 1 2 3090 1 55 3 2 3023 83 3 1 3057 1 1 1 1 2 3091 161 3 2 3024 89 3 1 3058 1 1 5 1 2 3092 171 3 2 3025 93 3 1 3059 1 22 1 2 3093 186 3 2 3026 96 3 1 3060 1 32 1 2 3094 21 1 3 2 3027 100 3 1 3061 1 66 1 2 3 0 9 5 263 3 . 2 3028 1 04 3 1 3062 71 2 2 3096 82 4 2 3029 108 3 1 3063 88 2 2 3097 161 4 2 3030 1 1 2 3 1 3064 . 1 03 2 2 3098 76 5 2 3031 1 17 3 1 3065 1 49 2 2 3099 1 12 5 2 3032 1 22 3 1 3066 58 3 2 31 0 1 72 5 2 3033 1 29 3 1 3067 79 3 2 3034 151 3 1 3068 86 3 2 0000 ZONAL D a t a 40 1 6085 62 40 4 8398 20 0 0 0 0 P a r a m e t e r s 5011 . 4 5 5 0 1 6 . 4 5 5 0 2 0 1 . 2 8 2 40 2 7244 65 40 5 7867 116 50121 . 2 0 5 0 1 7 1 . 4 2 40 3 8654 40 6 1 3 6 5 0 5013 0 . 0 5018 0 . 0 75 66 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 70 1 1 . 5 9 5 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 89201 . 0 0 0 94 . 2 70 21 . 4 2 7 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 142881 . 0 0 0 1 0 3 . 1 70 31 . 6 0 2 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 115181 . 0 0 0 1 2 0 . 2 70 41 . 6 6 7 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 78081 . 0 0 0 94 . 9 70 51 . 6 6 6 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 95301 . 0 0 0 1 1 4 . 2 70 60 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 00 . 0 0 . 0 F i g u r e A 3 : 2 5 - 1 ( c o n t ) C A L G A R Y : Demand C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 0000 S u p p l y C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 " M O D E L " M O D I F I E D HOUSEHOLDS 10 1 1 163 1 -51 1 0 10 2 1834 1 1 23 7 10 3 2359 1 - 2 5 79 10 4 3 2 3 9 1 608 1 37 10 5 581 2 1 3685 930 10 6 1 063 2 -1 39 27 10 7 1 977 2 946 202 10 8 2871 2 1755 319 10 9 3820 2 2850 543 1010 4501 2 3799 766 1011 5 0 3 2 2 4545 971 1012 5667 2 4995 1 104 1013 6428 2 5944 1 394 1014 721 1 2 7060 1 768 1015 7987 2 8083 2135 1016 9 2 5 3 2 9707 2 7 8 5 101712611 21 6461 6623 1018 2809 3 630 186 1019 4928 3 3085 634 1 020 6 5 7 2 3 4889 999 1 021 7421 3 5984 1211 1022 8 1 9 9 3 671 3 1 403 1023 9 0 3 9 3 7935 1774 1 024 9850 3 8904 2004 1 0251 0978 31 0339 2422 1 0 2 6 1 2 4 8 0 3 1 2 4 9 4 3216 1 0 2 7 1 6 9 0 6 31 8981 5926 1028 1740 4 40 87 1 029 3266 4 1430 293 1 030 4109 4 2163 404 1031 5 2 4 9 4 3068 595 1 032 6188 4 4258 898 1033 7 1 4 5 4 4829 1061 1034 8 4 2 4 4 6245 1 492 1035 9672 4 8621 2363 1 0 3 6 1 3 9 3 3 41 5679 61 62 1 037 4202 5 1615 394 1038 6254 5 3974 802 1 039 7084 5 4506 1 022 1 040 81 37 5 5896 1 286 1 041 9557 5 7665 1 726 1 0 4 2 1 1 2 6 6 5 9766 2258 1 0 4 3 1 4 1 9 8 5 1 3 9 1 2 4069 1044 3301 6 -121 44 1 045 4584 6 181 83 1 046 5979 6 998 207 1047 8189 6 3456 802 1 0 4 8 1 2 9 2 4 6 9402 2769 1 049 2 9 6 9 7 515 1 13 1050 5618 7 3251 666 1051 7193 7 4905 1 084 1052 8346 7 5597 1319 1053 9596 7 6990 1758 1 0 5 4 1 2 0 6 9 7 1 1 4 2 2 3591 1 0 5 5 1 7 7 8 6 7 1 8 9 3 0 7889 1056 6383 8 351 4 747 1057 8747 8 5645 1 272 1058 9556 8 7396 1652 1 0 5 9 1 0 5 4 7 8 8144 1847 1 0 6 0 1 1 3 9 7 8 9629 2298 1 0 6 1 1 2 0 7 2 8 1 0 3 6 3 2660 1 0 6 2 1 2 8 2 7 8 1 0 2 0 9 2402 1 0 6 3 1 3 8 1 6 8 1 1 6 9 0 2840 1 0 6 4 1 5 0 9 3 81381 0 3682 1 0 6 5 1 6 3 2 8 814741 4004 1 0 6 6 2 1 5 6 0 8 2 2 5 3 8 7936 1067 2678 9 - 3 4 0 92 1068 5620 9 2483 455 1069 7283 9 3873 807 1070 8339 9 5051 1 124 1071 8893 9 5905 1 380 1072 9579 9 641 9 1 549 1073 9931 9 6541 1639 1 0 7 4 1 0 3 9 2 9 7317 1863 1 0 7 5 1 0 9 7 3 9 8256 2206 1 0 7 6 1 1 5 3 6 9 881 1 2422 1 0 7 7 1 2 3 3 0 9 9751 2809 1 0 7 8 1 3 1 5 4 9 1 0 8 0 3 3313 1 0 7 9 1 4 8 0 8 9 1 4 7 0 6 5321 1 0 8 0 2 2 5 9 4 9 2 9 3 9 8 1 4 6 0 4 1081 3645 10 - 2 7 7 1 94 1082 6805 10 2939 619 1083 7669 10 4325 940 1084 8393 10 4958 1 1 58 1085 9119 10 561 4 1281 1086 9760 1 0 6042 1 457 1 0 8 7 1 0 1 3 3 10 6669 1535 108810511 10 6996 1713 1 0 8 9 1 0 8 2 5 10 7657 1859 1 0 9 0 1 1 1 3 8 1 0 7676 1814 1 0 9 1 1 1 6 1 8 1 0 8370 2044 1 0 9 2 1 2 1 2 4 1 0 8574 2129 1 0 9 3 1 2 7 0 6 10 9286 21 28 1 0 9 4 1 3 4 0 5 1010627 271 2 1 0 9 5 1 4 0 6 0 1010887 2858 1 0 9 6 1 4 9 1 5 1012911 3533 1 0 9 7 1 5 8 5 7 1013372 3465 1 0 9 8 1 6 7 2 7 1013910 3982 1 0 9 9 1 9 2 4 5 1017157 5542 11 0 2 5 4 2 0 1 0 3 0 3 6 6 1 4 0 3 4 F i g u r e A 3 : 2 6 - 1 C A L G A R Y : S u p p l y C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 0000 S u p p l y C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 Mean A F T E R TAX INCOME by H o u s e h o l d T Y P E 20 1 1 5 3 . 2 2 5 2 . 9 4 1 7 . 7 8 5 8 . 8 20 2 2 1 6 . 1 4 1 8 . 7 6 0 0 . 6 9 1 4 . 9 20 3 3 5 3 . 9 6 3 8 . 4 8 7 0 . 2 1 2 8 9 . 20 4 2 6 4 . 7 4 6 9 . 5 6 6 6 . 8 1 0 2 6 . 20 5 4 1 5 . 9 6 2 2 . 8 8 3 6 . 1 1 1 3 9 . 20 6 3 3 9 . 3 5 3 6 . 3 8 2 5 . 6 1 3 8 8 20 7 3 5 4 . 3 6 2 6 . 1 8 5 8 . 4 1 4 1 2 20 8 6 7 4 . 3 9 2 8 . 9 1 1 7 2 . 1 6 2 0 20 9 5 2 6 . 9 7 9 2 . 8 9 9 7 . 3 1 4 7 7 2 0 1 0 6 1 5 . 0 8 7 3 . 7 1 1 3 8 . 1 6 7 6 0000 Demand PARAMETERS by T Y P E 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 01) 21 1 0 - . 5 4 3 - . 1 4 8 . 4 1 0 1 . 1 4 1 4 . 3 0 6 0 5 0 . 9 2 5 5 . 5 3 1 5 3 . 2 1 . 6 1 3 21 2 o - . 4 7 8 - . 1 4 6 . 3631 . 2 1 7 8 . 2 6 4 1 6 2 . 2 5 8 9 . 7 1 2 1 6 . 1 1 . 6 2 9 21 3 0 - . 3 7 3 - . 1 4 2 . 2 6 6 2 . 1 7 5 6 . 0 7 0 4 7 8 . 8 6 1 7 5 . 8 3 5 3 . 9 1 .631 21 4 0 - . 5 2 1 - . 1 9 2 . 3 6 4 4 . 0861 . 2 2 8 4 8 1 . 4 6 1 0 0 . 5 2 6 4 . 7 1 . 6 6 7 21 5 o - . 3 5 0 - . 1 1 0 . 2 4 4 7 . 2 7 4 7 . 0 2 4 8 8 7 . 0 6 2 1 1 . 9 4 1 5 . 9 1 . 6 5 9 21 6 o - . 5 2 6 - . 1 9 0 . 3 2 8 4 . 1 0 3 3 . 1 8 5 2 9 9 . 8 6 1 2 5 . 6 3 3 9 . 3 1 . 7 8 0 21 7 0 - . 5 2 1 - . 2 6 8 . 3 0 0 5 - . 0 8 2 . 1 3 8 8 9 9 . 2 3 1 3 5 . 7 3 5 4 . 3 1 . 8 2 7 21 8 0 - . 2 6 9 - . 1 0 1 . 1 7 6 6 . 3 2 4 6 - . 0 6 3 9 7 . 6 6 3 8 4 . 0 6 7 4 . 3 1 . 8 5 7 21 9 o - . 3 6 6 - . 1 5 9 . 2 8 6 6 . 1 5 1 3 . 12221 01 . 3 2 6 4 . 3 5 2 6 . 9 1 . 8 6 2 21 1 0 o - . 3 0 8 - .071 . 3 2 0 4 . 3 4 3 9 . 1 8 4 0 9 8 . 1 6 3 3 5 . 0 6 1 5 . 0 1 . 8 9 2 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 02) 22 1 o - . 4 5 3 - . 1 4 0 . 3 1 8 7 . 1631 . 1 6 4 0 7 0 . 5 3 1 0 8 . 6 2 5 2 . 9 1 . 6 1 2 22 2 0 - . 2 8 7 - . 1 4 4 . 2 3 4 8 . 1 2 3 4 . 0 4 8 3 7 3 . 4 2 2 3 4 . 2 4 1 8 . 7 1 . 6 1 3 22 3 0 - . 2 1 9 - . 1 1 1 . 0 8 8 3 . 2 5 0 4 - . 3 3 3 8 4 . 6 0 3 8 9 . 0 6 3 8 . 4 1 .651 22 4 o - . 3 1 1 - . 1 4 2 . 2 0 6 4 . 2 0 8 3 - . 0 2 3 8 5 . 5 4 2 5 2 . 8 4 6 9 . 5 1 . 6 9 4 22 5 0 - . 2 3 1 - . 1 0 4 . 1 6 8 6 . 291 5 - . 0 7 4 8 4 . 8 8 3 7 3 . 8 6 2 2 . 8 1 .691 22 6 0 - . 4 3 1 - . 1 8 2 . 2 5 9 5 . 0 9 2 2 . 0 4 8 5 1 2 8 . 6 2 3 8 . 9 5 3 6 . 3 1 . 7 9 5 22 7 0 - . 3 2 4 - . 1 7 0 . 1 4 4 8 . 1 0 2 5 -. 2 1 7 1 1 0 . 6 3 2 9 . 8 6 2 6 . 1 1 . 8 4 0 22 8 o - . 2 3 2 - . 1 0 3 . 1901 . 3 0 6 7 . 0 9 0 6 1 1 4 . 1 5 5 7 . 5 9 2 8 . 9 1 . 8 7 9 22 9 o - . 2 7 0 - . 1 3 8 . 1 591 . 2 0 9 4 - . 1 3 5 1 1 4 . 1 4 5 1 . 9 7 9 2 . 8 1 .871 221 0 o - . 2 5 2 - . 1 1 7 . 1 9 4 2 . 2 4 9 9 . 0 1 4 2 1 1 5 . 1 5 1 0 . 9 8 7 3 . 7 1 . 8 9 9 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 03) 23 1 o - . 2 9 2 - . 0 9 3 . 1 9 1 0 . 3 3 5 4 - . 0 6 4 7 6 . 9 0 2 3 0 . 8 4 1 7 . 7 1 . 5 8 7 23 2 o - . 2 1 1 - . 0 8 8 . 1 6 4 0 . 3 3 3 7 - . 0 5 2 7 7 . 4 2 3 6 9 . 6 6 0 0 . 6 1 . 6 3 4 23 3 0 - . 1 7 8 -. 0 8 4 . 1 2 9 7 . 2 9 7 8 - . 1 7 6 9 2 . 3 0 5 5 8 . 1 8 7 0 . 2 1 . 6 7 7 23 4 o - . 2 2 2 - . 1 1 6 . 1 2 4 5 . 2 4 8 0 - . 1 9 5 8 6 . 2 9 4 0 5 . 3 6 6 6 . 8 1 . 7 0 4 23 5 0 - . 1 8 6 - . 0 7 2 . 1 2 5 7 . 4 5 3 5 - . 1 2 0 9 2 . 8 4 5 3 0 . 2 8 3 6 . 1 1 . 6 8 0 23 6 0 - . 3 0 4 - . 0 9 5 . 2 5 7 4 . 3 4 3 3 . 1 4 5 4 1 3 7 . 2 4 4 9 . 7 8 2 5 . 6 1 . 8 1 5 23 7 0 - . 2 3 5 - . 0 9 6 . 1 1 4 6 . 331 1- . 2 5 2 1 1 0 . 3 5 1 1 . 6 8 5 8 . 4 1 .831 23 8 o - . 2 0 5 - . 0 9 5 . 1 4 6 5 . 3 2 3 7 - . 1 1 0 1 2 7 . 6 7 2 6 . 8 1 1 7 2 . 1 . 8 7 8 23 9 o - . 2 7 3 - . 1 5 5 . 1 4 0 0 . 1 1 5 3 -. 2 0 3 1 4 4 . 7 5 6 7 . 3 9 9 7 . 3 1 . 8 6 8 2310 0 - . 2 3 0 - . 1 0 7 . 1 9 1 2 . 2 5 8 8 . 0 5 6 2 1 3 6 . 2 6 8 6 . 0 1 1 3 8 . 1 . 9 0 0 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 04) 24 1 0 - . 1 8 7 - . 1 1 2 . 1 0 0 9 . 1 6 1 6 - . 2 3 4 9 8 . 2 0 5 4 6 . 6 8 5 8 . 8 1 . 6 0 9 24 2 o - . 1 7 6 - . 1 0 0 . 1 1 3 1 . 2 2 7 2 - . 0 5 1 9 5 . 9 2 5 9 0 . 6 9 1 4 . 9 1 . 6 3 6 24 3 o - . 1 4 1 - . 0 7 7 . 0901 . 3 2 2 8 - . 1 7 1 1 0 8 . 9 8 6 3 . 9 1 2 8 9 . 1 . 6 6 5 24 4 o - . 1 9 1 - . 1 0 0 . 0 9 5 0 . 2 8 9 9 - . 3 0 2 1 1 5 . 2 6 4 8 . 1 1 0 2 6 . 1 .691 24 5 o - . 1 5 5 -. 0 8 8 . 0 2 4 3 . 3 0 2 7 - . 6 9 6 1 0 5 . 1 7 4 9 . 6 1 1 3 9 . 1 . 6 8 4 24 6 o - . 2 2 5 - . 1 0 6 . 1 1 8 7 . 2 6 7 3 - . 2 1 7 1 7 1 . 4 8 3 9 . 3 1 3 8 8 . 1 . 8 1 8 24 7 o - . 2 3 6 - . 1 2 5 . 1 2 8 9 . 2 2 6 6 - . 2 1 3 1 7 8 . 9 8 4 2 . 6 1 4 1 2 . 1 . 8 4 7 24 8 o - . 1 8 2 - . 1 0 0 . 0 8 3 0 . 2 3 6 2 - . 2 8 8 1 5 4 . 9 1 0 3 7 . 1 6 2 0 . 1 . 8 6 9 24 9 o - . 2 1 4 - .091 . 1 0 5 1 . 3 1 2 5 - . 2 5 4 1 6 9 . 8 9 0 4 . 3 1 4 7 7 . 1 . 8 6 6 241 0 o - . 2 2 1 - . 1 2 2 . 0 9 8 9 . 1 8 3 6 - . 2 3 5 1 9 0 . 3 1 0 2 4 . 1 6 7 6 . 1 . 9 0 9 F i g u r e A 3 : 2 6 - 1 ( c o n t ) C A L G A R Y : S u p p l y C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 449 0000 S u p p l y C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 " M O D E L " DWELLINGS 30 1 28 1 1 3024 135 4 1 3047 99 3 2 30 2 52 1 1 3 0 2 5 101 5 1 3048 1 02 3 2 30 3 65 1 1 3026 52 1 2 3049 1 04 3 2 30 4 74 1 1 3027 73 1 2 3050 1 06 3 2 30 5 81 1 1 3028 79 1 2 3051 109 3 2 30 6 88 1 1 3029 86 1 2 3052 1 1 1 3 2 30 7 97 1 1 3030 93 1 2 3053 1 13 3 2 30 8 1 06 1 1 3031 100 1 2 3054 1 1 5 3 2 30 9 1 18 1 1 3032 106 1 2 3055 1 19 3 2 3010 1 52 1 1 3033 1 1 3 1 2 3056 1 24 3 2 301 1 1 1 2 2 1 3034 1 19 1 2 3057 1 30 3 2 301 2 59 3 1 3035 128 1 2 3058 1 35 3 2 301 3 82 3 1 3036 1 62 1 2 3059 1 43 3 2 301 4 94 3 1 3037 86 2 2 3060 1 76 3 2 3015 106 3 1 3038 1 04 2 2 3061 " 51 4 2 3016 1 1 7 3 1 3039 121 2 2 3062 77 4 2 301 7 1 30 3 1 3040 165 2 2 3063 1 1 5 4 2 3018 143 3 1 3041 57 3 2 ' 3 0 6 4 68 5 2 301 9 1 75 3 1 3042 74 •3 2 3065 94 5 2 3020 31 4 1 3043 84 3 2 3066 1 1 0 5 2 3021 63 4 1 3044 92 3 2 3067 138 5 2 3022 82 4 1 3045 95 3 2 3023 97 4 1 3046 97 3 2 0000 ZONAL D a t a 40 1 6 0 8 5 62 40 2 7244 65 40 3 8654 75 40 4 8 3 9 8 20 40 5 7867 1 16 40 6 1 3 6 5 0 66 0000 P a r a m e t e r s 50 1 . 2 50 2 . 1 501 1 . 4 5 501 21 . 2 0 501 3 3 7 . 501 6 . 4 5 501 71 . 4 2 5018 3 9 . 5 0 2 0 1 . 2 8 2 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 70 1 1 . 5 9 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 79241 . 0 0 0 1 0 4 . 8 70 21 . 4 7 7 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 146261 . 0 0 0 1 1 5 . 0 70 31 . 5 9 2 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 99691 . 0 0 0 1 0 9 . 3 70 41 . 5 4 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 71 750 . 9 9 7 1 0 0 . 2 70 51 . 7 1 7 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 8 8 0 6 0 . 5 6 5 1 0 7 . 4 70 61 . 7 3 9 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 98351 . 0 0 0 1 2 0 . 8 70 71 . 6 7 4 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 84091 . 0 0 0 1 1 1 . 5 70 81 . 4 8 7 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 144390 . 8 7 3 1 3 3 . 3 70 91 . 6 0 3 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 109960 . 9 2 8 1 2 8 . 0 701 01 . 4 9 9 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 8 2 3 9 0 . 6 7 0 1 1 7 . 7 70111 . 7 8 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 8 8 0 5 0 . 5 0 4 1 0 9 . 2 701 22 . 3 0 7 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 125061 . 0 0 0 9 9 . 5 F i g u r e A 3 : 2 6 - 1 ( c o n t ) C A L G A R Y : S u p p l y C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 450 0000 P o l i c y D a t a s e t 0000 " M O D E L " M O D I F I E D HOUSEHOLDS a n d B A S E D a t a 10 1 1 1 63 1 - 5 1 0 0 21 . 4 4 8 3 8 . 0 10 2 1834 1 123 7 31 .571 5 3 . 4 10 3 2359 1 - 2 4 79 51 . 5 4 7 6 5 . 1 10 4 3239 1 608 1 37 9991 . 8 1 5 61 . 1 10 5 5812 1 3685 930 9991 . 8 1 5 6 7 . 2 10 6 1063 2 -1 38 27 201 . 6 1 5 2 6 . 4 10 7 1 977 2 946 202 21 1 . 5 6 6 51 . 3 10 8 2871 2 1755 319 221 . 5 9 9 6 8 . 9 10 9 3820 2 2850 543 9991 . 8 1 5 6 2 . 6 1010 4501 2 3799 766 9991 . 8 1 5 6 3 . 1 1011 5032 2 4545 971 9991 . 8 1 5 61 . 3 1012 5667 2 4995 1 1 04 9991 . 8 1 5 6 3 . 7 1013 6428 2 5944 1 394 61 . 6 4 5 7 6 . 9 1014 721 1 2 7060 1 768 9991 . 8 1 5 6 4 . 3 1015 7987 2 8083 21 35 9991 . 8 1 5 6 8 . 7 1016 9253 2 9707 2785 9991 . 8 1 5 7 4 . 9 101712611 216461 6623 171 . 6 3 8 1 1 2 . 7 1018 2809 3 630 186 41 . 5 3 7 5 8 . 7 1019 4928 3 3085 634 9991 . 8 1 5 7 2 . 7 1 020 6572 3 4889 999 9991 . 8 1 5 7 5 . 5 1 021 7421 3 5984 1211 141 . 6 7 5 8 3 . 8 1 022 81 99 3 6713 1403 9991 . 8 1 5 7 3 . 9 1 023 9039 3 7935 1774 9991 . 8 1 5 7 6 . 9 1 024 9850 3 8904 2004 9991 . 8 1 5 7 9 . 1 1 0 2 5 1 0 9 7 8 3 1 0 3 3 9 2422 91 . 6 2 5 1 0 0 . 3 1 0 2 6 1 2 4 8 0 312494 3216 1 1 1 . 6 8 4 1 0 0 . 1 1 0 2 7 1 6 9 0 6 318981 5926 101 . 6 0 6 1 2 7 . 5 1 028 1740 4 40 87 121 . 5 8 7 4 8 . 6 1029 3266 4 1 430 293 231 . 6 5 5 8 4 . 7 1 030 41 09 4 2163 404 9991 . 8 1 5 7 9 . 9 1 031 5249 4 3068 595 251 . 6 8 2 8 9 . 7 1 032 61 88 4 4258 898 9991 . 8 1 5 7 8 . 6 1 033 7 1 4 5 4 4829 1061 71 .711 8 8 . 0 1034 8424 4 6245 1 492 151 . 6 7 2 9 3 . 2 1 035 9672 4 8621 2363 241 . 5 9 5 1 1 1 . 4 1 0 3 6 1 3 9 3 3 4 1 5 6 7 9 61 62 191 . 5 9 8 1 4 5 . 1 1 037 4202 5 1615 394 131 . 6 7 3 7 2 . 8 1038 6254 5 3974 802 9991 . 8 1 5 7 8 . 7 1 039 7084 5 4506 1 022 9991 . 8 1 5 7 6 . 9 1 040 81 37 5 5896 1 286 9991 . 8 1 5 7 7 . 4 1 041 9557 5 7665 1726 81 . 6 6 9 9 3 . 3 1 0 4 2 1 1 2 6 6 5 9766 2258 161 . 6 5 0 1 0 1 . 4 1 0 4 3 1 4 1 9 8 5 1 3 9 1 2 4069 181 . 6 0 3 1 1 9 . 2 1 044 3301 6 -1 20 44 271 . 7 6 0 8 2 . 6 1 045 4584 6 181 83 9992 . 0 5 7 8 7 . 5 1 046 5979 6 998 207 9992 . 0 5 7 1 0 1 . 2 1 047 8189 6 3456 802 9992 . 0 5 7 1 1 2 . 5 1 0 4 8 1 2 9 2 4 6 9402 2769 9992 . 0 5 7 1 2 8 . 6 1 049 2969 7 515 1 1 3 641 . 7 4 4 7 5 . 4 1050 5618 7 3251 666 9992 . 0 5 7 9 4 . 1 F i g u r e A 3 : 2 7 - 1 C A L G A R Y : M O D I F I E D P o l i c y D a t a s e t 451 0000 P o l i c y D a t a s e t 0000 " M O D E L " M O D I F I E D HOUSEHOLDS a n d B A S E D a t a 1051 7193 7 4905 1 084 9992 . 0 5 7 9 3 . 3 1052 8 3 4 6 7 5597 1319 9992 . 0 5 7 9 3 . 1 1053 9596 7 6990 1 758 9992 . 0 5 7 9 1 . 9 1 0 5 4 1 2 0 6 9 7 1 1 4 2 2 3591 9992 . 0 5 7 1 0 5 . 2 1 0 5 5 1 7 7 8 6 7 1 8 9 3 0 7889 401 . 8 2 9 1 9 2 . 7 1056 6383 8 3514 747 421 . 7 7 4 8 3 . 2 1057 8747 8 5645 1 272 431 . 8 7 7 1 0 0 . 8 1058 9556 8 7396 1 652 371 . 8 9 6 1 0 4 . 3 1 0 5 9 1 0 5 4 7 8 8144 1847 9992 . 0 5 7 9 5 . 2 1 0 6 0 1 1 3 9 7 8 9629 2298 451 . 8 9 2 1 1 4 . 6 1 0 6 1 1 2 0 7 2 8 1 0 3 6 3 2660 481 . 8 6 6 1 2 1 . 1 1 0 6 2 1 2 8 2 7 8 1 0 2 0 9 2402 321 . 8 6 0 1 2 5 . 3 1 0 6 3 1 3 8 1 6 8 1 1 6 9 0 2840 381 . 8 9 1 1 2 5 . 5 1 0 6 4 1 5 0 9 3 8 1 3 8 1 0 3682 521 . 8 8 4 1 3 3 . 4 1 0 6 5 1 6 3 2 8 814741 4004 551 . 8 7 2 1 4 2 . 0 1 0 6 6 2 1 5 6 0 8 2 2 5 3 8 7936 361 . 8 0 7 1 8 5 . 7 1067 2678 9 - 3 3 9 92 261 . 6 4 4 5 3 . 3 1068 5620 9 2483 455 621 . 8 6 6 9 1 . 7 1069 7283 9 3873 807 9992 . 0 5 7 9 3 . 4 1070 8 3 3 9 9 5051 1 1 24 9992 . 0 5 7 9 6 . 5 1071 8 8 9 3 9 5905 1 380 9992 . 0 5 7 9 7 . 1 1072 9579 9 6419 1 549 9992 . 0 5 7 9 7 . 6 1073 9931 9 6541 1639 31 1 . 8 7 2 1 1 9 . 4 1 0 7 4 1 0 3 9 2 9 7317 1863 501 . 8 6 5 1 2 6 . 0 1 0 7 5 1 0 9 7 3 9 8256 2206 331 . 8 6 0 1 3 4 . 0 1 0 7 6 1 1 5 3 6 9 881 1 2422 541 . 8 8 3 1 3 8 . 3 1 0 7 7 1 2 3 3 0 9 9751 2809 391 . 8 8 5 1 4 5 . 8 1 0 7 8 1 3 1 5 4 9 1 0 8 0 3 331 3 351 . 8 7 0 1 5 2 . 7 1 0 7 9 1 4 8 0 8 9 1 4 7 0 6 5321 571 . 8 9 3 1 5 7 . 4 1 0 8 0 2 2 5 9 4 9 2 9 3 9 8 ' I 4604 9992 . 0 5 7 1 8 1 . 7 1081 3645 1 0 - 2 7 6 1 94 41 1 . 6 7 9 5 9 . 5 1082 6 8 0 5 10 2939 619 281 . 8 7 2 9 3 . 8 1083 7669 10 4325 940 291 . 8 8 4 1 0 2 . 9 1084 8393 1 0 4958 1 1 58 651 . 8 5 6 1 1 0 . 5 1085 9119 10 561 4 1 281 301 . 8 8 9 1 1 1 . 5 1086 9760 10 6042 1457 441 . 9 1 3 1 1 2 . 0 1 0 8 7 1 0 1 3 3 1 0 6669 1 535 461 . 8 8 6 1 1 6 . 1 108810511 10 6996 1713 471 . 8 8 1 1 1 8 . 1 1 0 8 9 1 0 8 2 5 1 0 7657 1859 661 . 8 2 6 1 2 6 . 7 1 0 9 0 1 1 1 3 8 10 7676 1814 491 . 8 7 5 1 2 3 . 6 1 0 9 1 1 1 6 1 8 10 8370 2044 511 . 8 6 3 1 2 8 . 6 1 0 9 2 1 2 1 2 4 1 0 8574 21 29 631 . 8 4 7 1 3 4 . 3 1 0 9 3 1 2 7 0 6 1 0 9286 21 28 531 . 8 7 8 1 3 4 . ,5 1 0 9 4 1 3 4 0 5 1010627 271 2 341 . 8 6 5 1 4 0 . 6 1 0 9 5 1 4 0 6 0 1010887 2858 561 . 8 6 4 1 4 6 . ,3 1 0 9 6 1 4 9 1 5 1012911 3533 671 . 8 3 0 1 5 9 . ,3 1 0 9 7 1 5 8 5 7 1013372 3465 581 . 8 8 0 1 6 0 . ,8 1 0 9 8 1 6 7 2 7 1013910 3982 591 . 8 7 5 1 6 9 . ,7 1 0 9 9 1 9 2 4 5 1 017157 5542 601 . 8 2 3 2 0 2 . .0 11 0 2 5 4 2 0 1 0 3 0 3 6 6 1 4 0 3 4 9992 . 0 5 7 2 1 5 . ,0 F i g u r e A 3 - . 2 7 - 1 C A L G A R Y : M O D I F I E D P o l i c y D a t a s e t 0000 P o l i c y D a t a s e t 0000 Mean A F T E R T A X INCOME by H o u s e h o l d T Y P E 20 1 1 5 3 . 2 2 5 2 . 9 4 1 7 . 7 8 5 8 . 8 20 2 2 1 6 . 1 4 1 8 . 7 6 0 0 . 6 9 1 4 . 9 20 3 3 5 3 . 9 6 3 8 . 4 8 7 0 . 2 1 2 8 9 . 20 4 2 6 4 . 7 4 6 9 . 5 6 6 6 . 8 1 0 2 6 . 20 5 4 1 5 . 9 6 2 2 . 8 8 3 6 . 1 1 1 3 9 . 20 6 3 3 9 . 3 5 3 6 . 3 8 2 5 . 6 1 3 8 8 20 7 3 5 4 . 3 6 2 6 . 1 8 5 8 . 4 1 4 1 2 20 8 6 7 4 . 3 9 2 8 . 9 1 1 7 2 . 1 6 2 0 20 9 5 2 6 . 9 7 9 2 . 8 9 9 7 . 3 1 4 7 7 2 0 1 0 6 1 5 . 0 8 7 3 . 7 1 1 3 8 . 1 6 7 6 0000 Demand PARAMETERS by T Y P E 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 01) 21 1 0 - . 5 4 3 - . 1 4 8 . 4101 . 1 4 1 4 . 3 0 6 0 5 0 . 9 2 5 5 . 5 3 1 5 3 . 2 1 . 6 1 3 21 2 0 - . 4 7 8 - . 1 4 6 . 3631 . 2 1 7 8 . 2 6 4 1 6 2 . 2 5 8 9 . 7 1 2 1 6 . 1 1 . 6 2 9 21 3 0 - . 3 7 3 - . 1 4 2 . 2 6 6 2 . 1 7 5 6 . 0 7 0 4 7 8 . 8 6 1 7 5 . 8 3 5 3 . 9 1 .631 21 4 o - . 5 2 1 - . 1 9 2 . 3 6 4 4 . 0861 . 2 2 8 4 8 1 . 4 6 1 0 0 . 5 2 6 4 . 7 1 . 6 6 7 21 5 0 - . 3 5 0 - . 1 1 0 . 2 4 4 7 . 2 7 4 7 . 0 2 4 8 8 7 . 0 6 2 1 1 . 9 4 1 5 . 9 1 . 6 5 9 21 6 0 - . 5 2 6 - . 1 9 0 . 3 2 8 4 . 1 0 3 3 . 1 8 5 2 9 9 . 8 6 1 2 5 . 6 3 3 9 . 3 1 . 7 8 0 21 7 0 - . 5 2 1 - . 2 6 8 . 3 0 0 5 - . 0 8 2 . 1 3 8 8 9 9 . 2 3 1 3 5 . 7 3 5 4 . 3 1 . 8 2 7 21 8 0 - . 2 6 9 - . 101 . 1 7 6 6 . 3 2 4 6 - . 0 6 3 9 7 . 6 6 3 8 4 . 0 6 7 4 . 3 1 . 8 5 7 21 9 o - . 3 6 6 - . 1 5 9 . 2 8 6 6 . 1 5 1 3 . 1 2 2 2 1 0 1 . 3 2 6 4 . 3 5 2 6 . 9 1 . 8 6 2 21 10 0 - . 3 0 8 - .071 . 3 2 0 4 . 3 4 3 9 . 1 8 4 0 9 8 . 1 6 3 3 5 . 0 6 1 5 . 0 1 . 8 9 2 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 02) 22 1 0 - . 4 5 3 - . 1 4 0 . 3 1 8 7 . 1 631 . 1 6 4 0 7 0 . 5 3 1 0 8 . 6 2 5 2 . 9 1 . 6 1 2 22 2 0 - . 2 8 7 - . 1 4 4 . 2 3 4 8 . 1 2 3 4 . 0 4 8 3 7 3 . 4 2 2 3 4 . 2 4 1 8 . 7 1 . 6 1 3 22 3 o - . 2 1 9 - . 1 1 1 . 0 8 8 3 . 2 5 0 4 - . 3 3 3 8 4 . 6 0 3 8 9 . 0 6 3 8 . 4 1 .651 22 4 0 - . 3 1 1 - . 1 4 2 . 2 0 6 4 . 2 0 8 3 - . 0 2 3 8 5 . 5 4 2 5 2 . 8 4 6 9 . 5 1 . 6 9 4 22 5 o - . 2 3 1 - . 1 0 4 . 1 6 8 6 . 291 5 - . 0 7 4 8 4 . 8 8 3 7 3 . 8 6 2 2 . 8 1 .691 22 6 0 - . 4 3 1 - . 1 8 2 . 2 5 9 5 . 0 9 2 2 . 0 4 8 5 1 2 8 . 6 2 3 8 . 9 5 3 6 . 3 1 . 7 9 5 22 7 0 - . 3 2 4 - . 1 7 0 . 1 4 4 8 . 1 0 2 5 -. 2 1 7 1 1 0 . 6 3 2 9 . 8 6 2 6 . 1 1 . 8 4 0 22 8 0 - . 2 3 2 - . 1 0 3 . 1 901 . 3 0 6 7 . 0 9 0 6 1 1 4 . 1 5 5 7 . 5 9 2 8 . 9 1 . 8 7 9 22 9 o - . 2 7 0 - . 1 3 8 . 1 591 . 2 0 9 4 - . 1 3 5 1 1 4 . 1 4 5 1 . 9 7 9 2 . 8 1 .871 221 0 o - . 2 5 2 - . 1 1 7 : 1 9 4 2 . 2 4 9 9 . 0 1 4 2 1 1 5 . 1 5 1 0 . 9 8 7 3 . 7 1 . 8 9 9 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 03) 23 1 o - . 2 9 2 - . 0 9 3 . 1 9 1 0 . 3 3 5 4 - . 0 6 4 7 6 . 9 0 2 3 0 . 8 4 1 7 . 7 1 . 5 8 7 23 2 0 - . 2 1 1 - . 0 8 8 . 1 6 4 0 . 3 3 3 7 - . 0 5 2 7 7 . 4 2 3 6 9 . 6 6 0 0 . 6 1 . 6 3 4 23 3 0 - . 1 7 8 -. 0 8 4 . 1 2 9 7 . 2 9 7 8 - . 1 7 6 9 2 . 3 0 5 5 8 . 1 8 7 0 . 2 1 . 6 7 7 23 4 o - . 2 2 2 - . 1 1 6 . 1 2 4 5 . 2 4 8 0 - . 1 9 5 8 6 . 2 9 4 0 5 . 3 6 6 6 . 8 1 . 7 0 4 23 5 o - . 1 8 6 - . 0 7 2 . 1 2 5 7 . 4 5 3 5 - . 1 2 0 9 2 . 8 4 5 3 0 . 2 8 3 6 . 1 1 . 6 8 0 23 6 0 - . 3 0 4 - . 0 9 5 . 2 5 7 4 . 3 4 3 3 . 1 4 5 4 1 3 7 . 2 4 4 9 . 7 8 2 5 . 6 1 . 8 1 5 23 7 o - . 2 3 5 - . 0 9 6 . 1 1 4 6 . 331 1- . 2 5 2 1 1 0 . 3 5 1 1 . 6 8 5 8 . 4 1 .831 23 8 o - . 2 0 5 - . 0 9 5 . 1 4 6 5 . 3 2 3 7 - . 1 1 0 1 2 7 . 6 7 2 6 . 8 1 1 7 2 . 1 . 8 7 8 23 9 o - . 2 7 3 - . 1 5 5 . 1 4 0 0 . 1 1 5 3 -. 2 0 3 1 4 4 . 7 5 6 7 . 3 9 9 7 . 3 1 . 8 6 8 2310 o - . 2 3 0 - . 1 0 7 . 1 9 1 2 . 2 5 8 8 . 0 5 6 2 1 3 6 . 2 6 8 6 . 0 1 1 3 8 . 1 . 9 0 0 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 04) 24 1 0 - . 1 8 7 - . 1 1 2 . 1 0 0 9 . 1 6 1 6 - . 2 3 4 9 8 . 2 0 5 4 6 . 6 8 5 8 . 8 1 . 6 0 9 24 2 o - . 1 7 6 -. 1 0 0 . 1 1 3 1 . 2 2 7 2 - . 0 5 1 9 5 . 9 2 5 9 0 . 6 9 1 4 . 9 1 . 6 3 6 24 3 o - . 1 4 1 - . 0 7 7 . 0901 . 3 2 2 8 - . 1 7 1 1 0 8 . 9 8 6 3 . 9 1 2 8 9 . 1 . 6 6 5 24 4 o - . 1 9 1 - . 1 0 0 . 0 9 5 0 . 2 8 9 9 - . 3 0 2 1 1 5 . 2 6 4 8 . 1 1 0 2 6 . 1 .691 24 5 o - . 1 5 5 - . 0 8 8 . 0 2 4 3 . 3 0 2 7 - . 6 9 6 1 0 5 . 1 7 4 9 . 6 1 1 3 9 . 1 . 6 8 4 24 6 o - . 2 2 5 - . 1 0 6 . 1 1 8 7 . 2 6 7 3 - - . 2 1 7 1 7 1 . 4 8 3 9 . 3 1 3 8 8 . 1 . 8 1 8 24 7 o - . 2 3 6 - . 1 2 5 . 1 2 8 9 . 2 2 6 6 - . 2 1 3 1 7 8 . 9 8 4 2 . 6 1 4 1 2 . 1 . 8 4 7 24 8 o - . 1 8 2 - . 1 0 0 . 0 8 3 0 . 2 3 6 2 - - . 2 8 8 1 5 4 . 9 1 0 3 7 . 1 6 2 0 . 1 . 8 6 9 24 9 o - . 2 1 4 - .091 . 1 0 5 1 . 31 2 5 - . 2 5 4 1 6 9 . 8 9 0 4 . 3 1 4 7 7 . 1 . 8 6 6 2410 o - . 2 2 1 - . 1 2 2 . 0 9 8 9 . 1 8 3 6 - - . 2 3 5 1 9 0 . 3 1 0 2 4 . 1 6 7 6 . 1 . 9 0 9 F i g u r e A 3 : 2 7 - 1 ( c o n t ) C A L G A R Y : M O D I F I E D P o l i c y D a t a s e t 453 0000 P o l i c y D a t a s e t 0000 "MODEL " DWELLINGS 30 1 28 1 1 3024 1 35 30 2 52 1 1 3 0 2 5 101 30 3 65 1 1 3026 52 30 4 74 1 1 3027 73 30 5 81 1 1 3028 79 30 6 88 1 1 3029 86 30 7 97 1 1 3030 93 30 8 1 06 1 1 3031 100 30 9 118 1 1 3032 106 301 0 1 52 1 1 3033 1 13 301 1 1 12 2 1 3034 1 19 3012 59 3 1 3 0 3 5 128 301 3 82 3 1 3036 162 301 4 94 3 1 3037 86 3015 1 06 3 1 3038 1 04 3016 1 17 3 1 3039 121 3017 1 30 3 1 3040 1 65 3018 143 3 1 3041 57 301 9 1 75 3 1 3042 74 3020 31 4 1 3043 84 3021 63 4 1 3044 92 3022 82 4 1 3 0 4 5 95 3023 97 4 1 3046 97 0000 ZONAL D a t a 40 1 6085 62 40 2 7244 40 4 8398 20 40 5 7867 0000 P a r a m e t e r s 50 10 . 2 0 0 50 20 . 1 00 50 30 . 5 5 0 50 40 . 3 0 0 50 50 . 6 7 5 50 60 . 3 5 0 501 1 0 . 4 5 0 501 21 . 2 0 0 50160 . 4 5 0 50171 . 4 2 0 50201 . 2 8 2 4 1 3047 99 3 2 5 1 3048 102 3 2 1 2 3049 104 3 2 1 2 3050 106 3 2 1 2 3051 109 3 2 1 2 3052 1 1 1 3 2 1 2 3053 1 1 3 3 2 1 2 3054 1 15 3 2 1 2 3 0 5 5 119 3 2 1 2 3056 124 3 2 1 2 3057 130 3 2 1 2 3058 135 3 2 1 2 3059 143 3 2 2 2 3060 176 3 2 2 2 3061 51 4 2 2 2 3062" 77 4 2 2 2 3063 1 1 5 4 2 3 2 3064 68 5 2 3 2 3 0 6 5 94 5 2 3 2 3066 110 5 2 3 2 3067 138 5 2 3 2 3 2 >5 40 3 8654 75 6 40 6 1 3 6 5 0 66 50 71 . 2 0 5 50 81 . 1 7 8 501 3 5 0 . 0 5018 5 5 . 0 F i g u r e A 3 : 2 7 - 1 ( c o n t ) C A L G A R Y : M O D I F I E D P o l i c y D a t a s e t 454 K I T C H E N E R 455 Number o f Z o n e s : 05 D i s t r i b u t i o n o f C e n s u s T r a c t s t o Z o n e s : Zone 1961 1971 1 10 1 1 2 10 15 3 3 3 4 5 12 5 • 2 2 A — 2 T o t a l 30 45 n o t e : " A " i n d i c a t e s a n n e x e d t r a c t s . : a n n e x e d c e n s u s t r a c t s i n c l u d e d i n Zone 5 S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : m o n t h l y r e n t v a l u e income a c c e s s 1 961 1 971 1961 1 971 1961 1 971 1 7 0 . 1 1 7 . 1 2 , 2 2 5 . 21 , 4 4 9 . 3 , 8 8 4 . 9 , 0 9 6 . 21 . 2 8 0 . 1 3 0 . 1 4 , 3 9 3 . 2 7 , 3 1 3 . 4 , 5 3 7 . 1 1 , 0 5 8 . 5 6 . 3 7 2 . 1 4 4 . 1 8 , 8 4 0 . 3 2 , 7 0 0 . 6 , 2 1 6 . 1 3 , 3 5 4 . 5 2 . 4 6 7 . 1 1 0 . 1 2 , 2 1 1 . 2 2 , 4 1 2 . 3 , 8 6 3 . 9 , 6 5 3 . 91 . 5 41 . 81 . 1 1 , 5 1 4 . 2 6 , 0 6 5 . 2 , 8 1 2 . 9 , 4 8 3 . 9 3 . A 9 4 . 3 1 , 9 0 4 . 1 1 , 9 4 5 . 9 3 . • t a l 7 2 . 1 2 0 . 1 3 , 5 1 0 . 2 5 , 0 4 8 . 4 , 2 7 7 . 1 0 , 3 6 2 . 6 0 . T o t a l D w e l l i n g s i n Z o n e s : 1961 1971 d w e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g s %CMA s t o c k NEW %new %CMA new 1 1 2 , 8 8 0 . 1 5 , 9 3 0 . 2 3 . 9 2 , 8 2 9 . 1 7 . 8 1 1 . 4 2 1 1 , 5 5 5 . 2 0 , 9 4 5 . 3 1 . 5 9 , 8 2 1 . 4 6 . 9 3 9 . 6 3 9 1 4 . 5 , 8 2 0 . 8 . 7 4 , 5 9 1 . 7 8 . 9 1 8 . 5 4 1 3 , 5 6 9 . 2 0 , 0 7 0 . 3 0 . 2 6 , 7 0 1 . 3 3 . 4 2 7 . 0 5 1 ,152 . 1 , 4 5 6 . 2 . 2 1 , 1 5 8 . 2 1 . 0 1 . 2 A 2 , 3 2 5 . 3 . 5 5 7 2 . 2 4 . 6 2 . 3 4 0 , 0 7 0 . 6 6 , 5 5 5 . 1 0 0 . 0 2 4 , 8 2 1 . 3 7 . 3 1 0 0 . 0 s o u r c e : p r o g r a m " C Z O N E . F O R T " : f i l e s K I T 6 1 . I N P U T a n d K I T 7 1 . I N P U T . F i g u r e A 3 : 0 l - 2 K I T C H E N E R : Z o n a l C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (5 z o n e s ) 456 457 D e m o g r a p h i c C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s : P o p u l a t i o n [ 1 ] 1 9 6 1 : 1 5 4 , 8 6 4 . [ 2 ] 1 9 7 1 : 2 2 6 , 8 5 0 . H o u s e h o l d s [ 1 ] 1 9 6 1 : 4 2 , 1 7 4 . [ 2 ] 1 9 7 1 : 6 6 , 5 8 0 . S o u r c e s : [ l ] S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a . CT 9 5 - 5 3 5 C T - 2 0 : [ 2 ] S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a . CT 9 5 - 7 2 8 s e r i e s A Mean H o u s e h o l d I n c o m e s : 1971 C e n s u s [ 3 ] : 1 0 , 3 6 2 . 1974 SHU d a t a [ 4 ] : 1 1 , 7 7 3 . d e f l a t o r : 0 . 8 8 0 1 SHU d e f l a t e d : 1 0 , 6 3 3 . S o u r c e s : [ 3 ] S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a . CT 9 5 - 7 3 1 s e r i e s B , v a r i a b l e 49. : [ 4 ] f i l e K I T . S H U SHU d a t a s e t : S a m p l e s i z e : 2 9 5 4 . Sum o f t h e WEIGHTS : 7 5 , 9 4 1 . R A T I O o f SHU w e i g h t s t o a c t u a l h o u s e h o l d s : 1 . 1 4 0 6 " M o d e l " H o u s e h o l d s : h o u s e h o l d mean # SHU t y p e i n c o m e h ' h o l d s 1 9 , 1 2 2 . 8 , 9 5 9 . 2 1 2 , 7 3 8 . 2 7 , 5 8 4 . 3 1 0 , 8 0 1 . 6 , 6 2 4 . 4 1 2 , 7 5 8 . 1 1 , 8 2 1 . 5 6 , 9 2 8 . 5 , 7 2 9 . 6 7 , 4 0 2 . 4 , 8 0 3 . 7 8 , 1 7 7 . 5 , 1 1 0 . 8 4 , 7 2 1 . 5 , 3 1 1 . # SHU a c t u a l m o d e l " h ' h o l d s / h ' h o l d s h ' h o l d s m o d e l / " m o d e l " 1 2 . 7 4 7 . 6 5 5 . 3 6 . 7 6 6 . 6 7 2 . 9 . 7 3 6 . 6 4 5 . 1 5 . 7 8 8 . 691 . 8 . 7 1 6 . 6 2 8 . 6 . 801 . 7 0 2 . 7 . 7 3 0 . 6 4 0 . 7 . 7 5 9 . 6 6 5 . s o u r c e : p r o g r a m " H H 1 . F O R T " : f i l e K I T . S H U F i g u r e A 3 : 0 3 - 2 K I T C H E N E R : HOUSEHOLD C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . T o t a l 1961 d w e l l i n g s : 4 0 , 0 7 0 . R e n t a l : 1 1 , 3 8 4 . O w n e r - o c c u p i e r -: 2 8 , 6 8 6 . S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : z o n e r e n t # r e n t a l u n i t s 1 6 7 . 4 , 6 5 6 . 2 8 0 . 2 , 3 5 2 . 3 7 8 . 5 4 . 4 6 7 . 4 , 0 9 6 . 5 4 1 . 2 2 6 . t o t a l 6 9 . 1 1 , 3 8 4 . d i s t r i b u t i o n : # # " m o d e l " z o n e d w e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g 1 1 2 , 8 8 0 . 2 0 . 2 1 1 , 5 5 5 . 1 8 . 3 9 1 4 . 1 . 4 1 3 , 5 6 9 . 2 2 . 5 1 , 1 5 2 . 2 . e r r o r o f f i t 0 . 0 2 7 1 5 458 v a l u e #o-o a n n u a l u n i t s r e n t / v a l u e 1 2 , 2 9 0 . 8 , 2 2 4 . 0 . 0 6 6 0 1 4 , 5 6 4 . 9 , 2 0 3 . 0 . 0 6 6 0 2 0 , 6 3 4 . 8 6 0 . 0 . 0 4 5 6 1 2 , 1 8 1 . 9 , 4 7 3 . 0 . 0 6 6 0 1 1 , 4 5 5 . 9 2 6 . 0 . 0 4 3 2 1 3 , 2 0 6 . 2 8 , 6 8 6 . 0 . 0 6 3 6 4 0 , 0 7 0 . 99 .8% 4 1 , 7 3 4 . 4 1 , 8 2 7 . 1 0 0 . 6 6 6 . 6 3 . " R H S " / a c t u a l S E R V I C E S a c t u a l / " m o d e l " c a l c u l a t e d w e i g h t e d 6 4 4 . 0 . 9 7 7 4 0 . 9 8 3 3 6 4 2 . 0 . 9 5 8 4 0 . 9 6 4 2 9 1 4 . 0 . 9 1 1 7 0 . 9 1 7 2 6 1 7 . 0 . 9 9 1 4 0 . 9 9 7 4 5 7 6 . 1 . 4 5 9 0 1 . 4 6 7 8 s o u r c e : p r o g r a m " D 6 1 . F O R T " : d a t a s e t K I T 6 1 . I N P U T . 1961 " M o d e l " D w e l l i n g s : d e r i v a t i o n : 1961 D w e l l i n g s : TOTAL : R A T I O o f E X I S T I N G u n a n n e x e d / T O T A L : TOTAL 1961 D w e l l i n g s E X I S T I N G i n 1971 : TOTAL 1961 D w e l l i n g s A D J U S T E D f o r ANNEXED : 1971 " m o d e l " D w e l l i n g s : 1971 R A T I O A C T U A L / " m o d e 1 " : 1961 " m o d e l " D w e l l i n g s s o u r c e : p r o g r a m " D 6 1 . F O R T " : d a t a s e t K I T 6 1 . I N P U T . F i g u r e A 3 : 0 4 - 2 K I T C H E N E R : 1961 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . OWNER/OCCUPIER MODEL R E N T A L MODEL O . L . S . W . L . S . O . L . S . W . L . S . CONSTANT M U L T I P L E CONSTRUCTED PRE 20 2 0 - 4 5 C O N D I T I O N L N ROOMS L N INCOME A C C E S S 7 . 1628 ( 1 1 . 1 ) 0 . 5 6 6 0 ( 5 . 6 1 ) - . 3 5 8 8 ( 4 . 8 5 ) - . 3 2 8 7 ( 4 . 7 4 ) 0 . 2 0 7 3 ( 3 . 2 3 ) 1 . 0 0 2 5 ( 7 . 8 7 ) 0 . 0 5 5 3 ( 0 . 7 2 ) 0 . 0 0 0 3 4 ( 0 . 7 8 ) 4 . 1 1 8 4 ( 6 . 5 6 ) 0 . 6 2 5 5 ( 6 . 2 6 ) - . 3 1 9 9 ( 4 . 8 4 ) - . 2 9 8 5 ( 5 . 3 6 ) 0 . 2 2 7 7 ( 4 . 4 3 ) 1 . 3 7 6 2 ( 1 1 . 3 ) 0 . 3 3 9 5 ( 4 . 7 6 ) . 0 0 0 1 1 ( 0 . 2 9 ) 2 . 2 2 2 9 ( 2 . 7 2 ) 0 . 1 3 8 2 ( 1 . 2 1 ) - . 1 5 5 6 (1 . 9 9 ) - . 0 2 2 1 ( 0 . 3 1 ) 0 . 1 5 1 4 ( 2 . 2 6 ) 0 . 2 2 4 7 ( 1 . 4 6 ) 0 . 4 9 0 8 ( 5 . 3 3 ) - . 0 0 0 3 ( 0 . 5 9 ) 1 .4981 ( 2 . 1 4 ) 0 . 2 4 4 4 ( 2 . 8 4 ) - . 1 8 3 2 ( 3 . 1 3 ) - . 0 4 5 5 ( 0 . 7 2 ) 0 . 0 8 5 5 (1 . 8 0 ) 0 . 4 3 8 5 ( 3 . 7 4 ) 0 . 5 3 7 0 ( 6 . 5 3 ) . 0 0 0 0 1 ( 0 . 0 3 ) R2 O B S E R V A T I O N S 0 . 3 2 279 0 . 9 9 279 0 . 3 4 261 0 . 9 9 261 n o t e " t " s t a t i s t i s i n b r a c k e t s d a t a s o u r c e : K I T 6 1 . E A M E A N S : L N INCOME M U L T I P L E A C C E S S 8 . 2 6 7 8 0 . 2 9 2 7 5 2 . 9 F i g u r e A 3 : 0 5 - 2 K I T C H E N E R : 1961. H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s 460 T o t a l 1971 d w e l l i n g s : 6 6 , 5 5 0 . R e n t a l : 2 6 , 6 4 0 . O w n e r - o c c u p i e r : 3 9 , 9 1 0 . S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : z o n e r e n t # r e n t a l v a l u e #o-o a n n u a l u n i t s u n i t s r e n t / v a l u e 1 1 1 6 . 7 , 9 9 5 . 2 1 , 4 6 1 . 7 , 9 3 0 . 0 . 0 6 4 8 2 1 3 1 . 8 , 0 2 5 . 2 7 , 3 3 6 . 1 2 , 9 1 5 . 0 . 0 5 7 6 3 1 4 2 . 1 , 4 7 0 . 3 2 , 5 2 1 . 4 , 3 5 0 . 0 . 0 5 2 8 4 1 1 0 . 8 , 3 4 0 . 2 2 , 6 7 4 . 1 1 , 7 3 5 . 0 . 0 5 7 6 5 8 9 . 8 1 0 . 2 9 , 6 0 3 . 2 , 9 8 0 . 0 . 0 3 6 0 t o t a l 1 1 9 . 2 6 , 6 4 0 . 2 5 , 5 3 2 . 3 9 , 9 1 0 . 0 . 0 5 6 4 s o u r c e : p r o g r a m " D 7 1 . F O R T " : d a t a s e t K I T 7 1 . I N P U T . 1971 " M o d e l " D w e l l i n g s : t o t a l number o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s : 1 0 0 . d i s t r i b u t i o n : # " R H S " / a c t u a l S E R V I C E S # " m o d e l " a c t u a l / z o n e d w e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g " m o d e l " c a l c u l a t e d w e i g h t e d 1 1 5 , 9 2 5 . 2 4 . 6 6 4 . 0 . 9 5 1 7 1 . 0 0 2 6 2 2 0 , 9 4 0 . 31 . 6 7 6 . 0 . 9 1 5 4 0 . 9 6 4 3 3 5 , 8 2 0 . 9 . 6 4 7 . 0 . 8 7 1 9 0 . 9 1 8 5 4 2 0 , 0 7 5 . 3 0 . 6 6 9 . 0 . 9 9 7 5 1 . 0 5 0 8 5 3 , 7 9 0 . 6 . 6 3 2 . 0 . 8 7 9 1 0 . 9 2 6 1 6 6 5 . e r r o r o f f i t 0 . 0 1 2 7 7 s o u r c e : p r o g r a m " D 7 1 . F O R T " : d a t a s e t K I T 7 1 . I N P U T . F i g u r e A 3 : 0 6 - 2 K I T C H E N E R : 1971 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . [ "GAMMA" C a l i b r a t i o n S e t ] 461 T o t a l 1971 d w e l l i n g s : 6 6 , 5 5 0 . B u i l t p r i o r 1961 : 4 1 , 7 1 2 . B u i l t 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 7 1 : 2 4 , 8 3 8 . S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : z o n e r e n t # r e n t a l v a l u e #o-o a n n u a l u n i t s u n i t s r e n t / v a l u e 1 1 1 1 . 5 , 4 6 4 . 2 2 , 0 2 7 . 7 , 6 2 8 . 0 . 0 6 0 0 2 1 1 3 . 2 , 9 0 3 . 2 4 , 9 8 1 . 8 , 2 0 1 . 0 . 0 5 4 0 3 1 3 3 . 1 4 1 . 3 3 , 2 5 5 . 1 , 0 8 8 . 0 . 0 4 8 0 4 9 9 . 4 , 3 9 7 . 2 1 , 7 9 2 . 8 , 9 8 0 . 0 . 0 5 5 2 5 7 8 . 731 . 2 7 , 3 3 1 . 2 , 1 7 8 . 0 . 0 3 4 8 99 1 3 3 . 1 3 , 0 0 4 . 3 0 , 5 5 4 . 1 1 , 8 3 4 . 0 . 0 5 2 8 CMA 1 1 9 . 2 6 , 6 4 0 . 2 5 , 7 0 5 . 3 9 , 9 1 0 . 0 . 0 5 5 2 s o u r c e : p r o g r a m " D 7 1 . F O R T " : d a t a s e t K I T 7 1 . I N P U T . 1971 " M o d e l " D w e l l i n g s : t o t a l number o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s : 1 0 0 . d i s t r i b u t i o n : # " R H S " / a c t u a l S E R V I C E S # " m o d e l " a c t u a l / z o n e d w e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g " m o d e l " c a l c u l a t e d w e i g h t e d 1 1 3 , 0 9 2 . 2 0 . 6 5 5 . 0 . 9 5 0 0 1 .0078 2 1 1 , 1 0 4 . 1 7 . 6 5 3 . 0 . 9 7 9 9 1 . 0 3 9 4 3 1 , 2 2 9 . 2 . 6 1 5 . 0 . 8 4 5 2 0 . 8 9 6 6 4 1 3 , 3 3 7 . 2 0 . 6 6 9 . 1 .0457 1 . 1 0 9 3 5 2 , 9 0 9 . 4 . 7 2 7 . 0 . 9 8 6 7 1 . 0 4 6 7 99 2 4 , 8 3 8 . 3 7 . 671 . 0 . 8 6 9 5 0 . 9 2 2 3 6 6 5 . e r r o r o f f i t 0 . 0 1 6 0 8 s o u r c e : p r o g r a m " D 7 1 . F O R T " : d a t a s e t K I T 7 1 . I N P U T . F i g u r e A 3 : 0 7 - 2 K I T C H E N E R : 1971 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . [ " B E T A " C a l i b r a t i o n S e t ] OWNER/OCCUPIER MODEL R E N T A L MODEL O . L . S . W . L . S . O . L . S . W . L . S . CONSTANT M U L T I P L E CONSTRUCTION 5 1 - 6 0 4 6 - 5 0 2 0 - 4 5 PRE 20 F A C I L I T I E S L N INCOME L N ROOMS R2 O B S E R V A T I O N S 8 . 7 0 9 1 ( 5 6 . 3 ) 0 . 0 3 0 2 (1 . 2 7 ) - . 0 6 1 0 ( 2 . 5 0 ) - . 1 6 5 5 ( 5 . 0 5 ) - . 2 8 0 2 ( 1 0 . 4 ) - . 3 1 5 7 ( 1 2 . 0 ) 0 . 1 1 1 4 (1 . 3 0 ) 0 . 0 4 5 2 ( 3 . 4 6 ) 0 . 5 1 7 8 ( 1 3 . 6 ) 0 . 2 9 1 1 47 8 . 4 3 7 3 ( 5 4 . 1 ) - . 0 0 1 9 ( 0 . 0 8 ) - . 0 9 8 7 ( 4 . 7 2 ) - . 1 9 8 5 ( 6 . 2 7 ) - . 3 0 9 6 ( 1 1 . 8 ) - . 3 4 7 7 ( 1 3 . 5 ) 0 . 1186 ( 1 . 2 7 ) 0 . 0 6 1 5 ( 4 . 7 4 ) 0 . 5 9 4 0 ( 1 6 . 3 ) 0 . 9 9 1 1 47 5 . 8 6 5 1 ( 4 1 . 9 ) 0 . 0 3 5 3 ( 1 . 2 6 ) - . 1 3 1 9 ( 4 . 8 8 ) - . 2 8 7 9 ( 6 . 5 2 ) - . 3 1 8 4 ( 1 0 . 2 ) - . 3 7 9 9 ( 1 4 . 7 ) 0 . 0 9 8 8 (1 . 6 2 ) 0 . 1128 ( 7 . 9 1 ) 0 . 2 7 0 1 ( 9 . 4 1 ) 0 . 3 3 . 1 1 40 5 . 9 1 0 2 ( 4 3 . 8 ) 0 . 0 3 5 1 ( 1 . 2 1 ) - . 1 1 5 2 ( 4 . 1 2 ) - . 2 5 9 3 ( 5 . 7 3 ) - . 3 0 7 6 ( 9 . 5 0 ) - . 3 4 8 5 ( 1 3 . 2 ) 0 . 1 1 5 1 ( 1 . 8 4 ) 0 . 1 0 2 8 ( 7 . 5 2 ) 0 . 2 7 8 5 ( 9 . 5 5 ) 0 . 9 7 1 1 40 WEIGHTED 2 0 - 4 5 / P R E 20 - . 2 9 8 9 - . 3 2 9 7 - . 3 5 6 0 - . 3 3 2 6 n o t e M E A N S : L N INCOME M U L T I P L E A C C E S S " t " s t a t i s t i s i n b r a c k e t s d a t a s o u r c e : K I T . S H U w e i g h t e d c o e f f i c i e n t f o r 2 0 - 4 5 a n d p r e 20 u s e d a s a c t u a l c e n s u s d a t a c o m b i n e s t h e s e v a r i a b l e s 8.98268 0.5107 60.0 F i g u r e A 3 : 0 8 - 2 K I T C H E N E R : 1971 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s 4 6 3 adjustment values: 1971 Census 25,048. 120. 10,362. PRICE RENT INCOME R/V r a t i o : 0.0564 regression c o e f f i c i e n t s and ALPHAs: O.L.S. MODEL 1974 SHU 43,589. 147. 1 1 ,773. deflator 0.57464 0.81633 0.8801 P(j)/PN r a t i o : 0.97969 c o e f f i c i e n t s ALPHAs [1] CONSTANT (TYPE 1) DUMMY (TYPE 2) DUMMY (TYPE 3) DUMMY (TYPE 4) DUMMY (TYPE 5) DUMMY (TYPE 6) DUMMY (TYPE 7) DUMMY (TYPE 8) R2 OBSERVATIONS 2.7982 (126.) -.2503 (9.08) -.1520 (4.37) -.2848 (8.82) 0.1937 (5.61 ) 0.2493 (6.55) 0.0378 (0.98) 0.5632 (14.6) 0.23 2857 0.1642 0.1278 0.1410 0.1235 0.1992 0.2106 0. 1705 0.2883 W.L.S. MODEL c o e f f i c i e n t s 2.7938 (120. ) -.2616 (9.53) -.1586 (4.39) -.3188 (9.93) 0.2285 (5.84) 0.2284 (5.63) 0.0001 (0.00) 0.5451 (13.5) 0.73 2857 ALPHAS [1] [2] 0.1634 0.1655 0.1258 0.1275 0.1395 0.1413 0.1188 0.1204 0.2054 0.2079 0.2054 0.2079 0.1634 0.1655 0.2819 0.2850 note:[l] ALPHA values are calculated as; ALPHA(1) = EXP(INTERCEPT) ALPHA(2)-(8) = EXP(INTERCEPT+COEFFICIENT) [2] ALPHA values adjusted as described in Section A1.32 [3] " t " values in brackets Figure A3:09-2 KITCHENER: Household ALPHAs 464 r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s a n d A L P H A S l o g ( ) = l o g ( a ) + l o g ( Y ( i ) ) Y ( i ) O . L . S . MODEL c o e f f i c i e n t W . L . S . MODEL A L P H A S [ 1 ] c o e f f i c i e n t a t mean l o w e s t h i g h e s t [ 2 ] CONSTANT ( T Y P E 1) 1 0 . 2 1 2 ( 7 6 . 2 ) 1 0 . 0 8 9 ( 7 3 . 1) 0 . 1542 0 . 1118 0 . 4990 DUMMY ( T Y P E 2) - . 0 0 5 8 ( 0 . 3 0 ) 0 . 0 0 9 1 ( 0 . 4 5 ) 0 . 1 188 0 . 0678 0 . 3743 DUMMY ( T Y P E 3) - . 0 1 6 8 ( 0 . 6 9 ) - . 0 3 1 1 ( 1 . 2 1 ) 0 . 1304 0 . 0887 0 . 4227 DUMMY ( T Y P E 4) - . 0 4 3 9 ( 1 . 9 3 ) - . 0 4 9 8 ( 2 . 1 4 ) 0 . 1119 0 . 0754 0 . 2203 DUMMY ( T Y P E 5) - . 0 4 7 1 ( 1 . 9 4 ) - . 0 5 3 5 ( 1 . 9 0 ) 0 . 1825 0 . 1 1 49 0 . 3432 DUMMY ( T Y P E 6) 0 . 0 2 2 9 ( 0 . 8 6 ) 0 . 0 2 7 2 ( 0 . 9 4 ) 0 . 1876 0 . 1319 0 . 3529 DUMMY ( T Y P E 7) - . 1 1 3 2 ( 4 . 2 1 ) - . 1 2 7 5 ( 4 . 3 8 ) 0 . 1483 0 . 1062 0 . 2759 DUMMY ( T Y P E 8) - . 0 6 4 9 ( 2 . 2 5 ) - . 0 9 5 9 ( 3 . 1 0 ) 0 . 2385 0 . 1 397 0 . 4806 L N INCOME - . 8 2 0 0 ( 5 5 . 7 ) - . 8 0 7 4 ( 5 3 . 3 ) R2 0 . 6 3 | 0 . 8 7 O B S E R V A T I O N S 2857 I 2857 n o t e : [ 1 ] A L P H A v a l u e s a r e c a l c u l a t e d by t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m p r o g r a m by s u b s t i t u t i n g t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s " m o d e l " i n c o m e s , a s d e s c r i b e d i n S e c t i o n A 1 . 3 2 . T h e s e a r e u n a d j u s t e d v a l u e s . [ 2 ] c a l c u l a t e d by s u b s t i t u t i n g T Y P E s mean i n c o m e . [ 3 ] " t " v a l u e s i n b r a c k e t s . F i g u r e A3:09-2(b) K I T C H E N E R : H o u s e h o l d A L P H A S [ m o d i f i e d ] 465 O p e r a t i n g a n d C a p i t a l C o s t s : A n n u a l O p e r a t i n g Y e a r C o s t s A n n u a l C a p i t a l C o s t s D w e l l i n g S t a r t s W e i g h t W e i g h t e d O p e r a t i n g C o s t s W e i g h t e d C a p i t a l C o s t s 1 961 7 9 7 . 0 9 7 2 . - - - -1962 8 0 9 . 0 9 5 0 . 1 , 3 7 7 0 . 046 3 7 . 2 4 3 . 7 1963 8 1 9 . 0 9 6 5 . 2 , 6 3 4 0 . 088 7 2 . 0 8 4 . 9 1 964 8 3 8 . 0 1 0 1 3 . 3 , 173 0 . 1 06 8 8 . 7 1 0 7 . 4 1 965 8 6 2 . 0 1 0 5 2 . 2 , 8 2 0 0 . 094 8 0 . 9 9 8 . 9 1966 8 9 0 . 0 1271 . 2 , 4 3 2 0 . 081 7 2 . 0 1 0 3 . 0 1967 9 3 0 . 0 1 4 1 5 . 3 , 198 0 . 1 07 9 9 . 5 1 5 1 . 4 1 968 9 8 5 . 0 1 7 3 2 . 3 , 5 0 3 0 . 1 1 7 1 1 5 . 2 2 0 2 . 6 1 969 1 0 4 0 . 0 1 9 5 9 . 3 , 8 4 1 0 . 1 28 1 3 3 . 1 2 5 0 . 8 1 970 1 1 1 2 . 0 2 2 0 5 . 3 , 0 7 5 0 . 103 1 1 4 . 5 2 2 7 . 1 1971 1 1 7 9 . 0 2 0 7 8 . 3 , 9 0 5 0 . 1 30 1 5 3 . 2 2 7 0 . 1 " M o d e l " C o s t s : A n n u a l A n n u a l T o t a l O p e r a t i n g C a p i t a l A n n u a l C o s t s C o s t s C o s t PO PC PN QM 1 961 7 9 7 . 0 9 7 2 . 0 1 7 6 9 . 0 0 . 4 5 1 0 . 5 4 9 1 . 0 0 0 d e c a d e we i g h t e d 9 6 6 . 0 1 5 4 0 . 0 2 5 0 6 . 0 0 . 5 4 7 0 . 8 7 3 1 . 420 62 1971 1 1 7 8 . 5 2 0 7 8 . 0 3 2 5 6 . 5 0 . 6 6 7 1 . 1 75 1 . 8 4 2 47 F i g u r e A 3 : 1 0 - 2 K I T C H E N E R : P r i c e s , C o s t s a n d Q u a n t i t i e s [New C o n s t r u c t i o n ] 0000 GAMMA C A L I B R A T I O N 0000 INCOME by T Y P E 0000 " M O D E L " HOUSEHOLDS 20 1 9121 10 1 808 1 1051 7236 3 20 2 1 2 7 3 7 10 2 3424 1 1052 9263 3 20 3 1 0 8 0 0 10 3 5478 1 1 0 5 3 1 0 4 5 6 3 20 4 1 2 7 5 8 10 4 7258 1 1 0 5 4 1 1 5 1 8 3 20 5 6927 10 5 8381 1 1 0 5 5 1 2 8 1 7 3 20 6 7401 10 6 9013 1 1 0 5 6 1 4 9 1 5 3 20 7 8176 10 7 9612 1 1 0 5 7 2 3 9 6 6 3 20 8 4721 10 8 1 0 3 2 2 1 1058 3151 4 10 911311 1 1059 5860 4 0000 ALPHA by T Y P E 1 0 1 0 1 2 5 7 5 1 1060 7497 4 21 1 .1634 1 0 1 1 1 3 8 2 6 1 1061 8620 4 21 2 . 1 2 5 8 1 0 1 2 1 7 7 3 3 1 1062 9414 4 21 3 . 1 3 9 5 1013 1193 2 1 0 6 3 1 0 2 1 3 4 21 4 . 1 1 8 8 1014 3663 2 1 0 6 4 1 0 9 0 6 4 21 5 . 2 0 5 4 1015 5 0 2 5 2 1 0 6 5 1 1 9 7 3 4 21 6 . 2 0 5 4 1016 5873 2 106612711 4 21 7 . 1 6 3 4 1017 6 7 3 5 2 1 0 6 7 1 3 7 7 7 4 21 8 . 2 8 1 9 1018 7303 2 1 0 6 8 1 5 0 8 7 4 1019 7 7 7 5 2 1 0 6 9 1 6 2 7 5 4 1020 8141 2 1 0 7 0 1 7 9 4 9 •4 1021 8 7 9 6 2 1 0 7 1 2 0 3 3 7 4 1022 8 9 1 5 2 1 0 7 2 2 8 8 4 3 4 1023 9312 2 1073 1880 5 1024 9678 2 1074 3132 5 1 0 2 5 1 0 0 2 9 2 1075 3809 5 1 0 2 6 1 0 4 4 5 2 1076 4 7 4 5 5 1 0 2 7 1 0 6 0 6 2 1077 6060 5 1 0 2 8 1 0 9 5 5 2 1078 7614 5 1 0 2 9 1 1 2 8 0 2 1 0 7 9 1 0 4 3 5 5 103011541 2 1 0 8 0 1 7 9 6 7 5 103112041 2 1081 2008 6 1 0 3 2 1 2 3 4 8 2 1082 4490 6 1 0 3 3 1 2 6 1 0 2 1083 5913 6 1 0 3 4 1 3 0 0 7 2 1084 7222 6 1 0 3 5 1 3 3 5 0 2 1085 9448 6 1 0 3 6 1 3 8 2 3 2 1 0 8 6 1 5 3 1 4 6 1 0 3 7 1 4 2 7 6 2 1087 2273 7 1 0 3 8 1 4 7 8 7 2 1088 4663 7 1 0 3 9 1 5 3 1 7 2 1089 5804 7 1 0 4 0 1 5 9 1 7 2 1090 7 4 6 5 7 104116601 2 1091 9409 7 1 0 4 2 1 7 1 7 4 2 1 0 9 2 1 1 4 1 8 7 1 0 4 3 1 7 7 5 9 2 1 0 9 3 1 6 3 1 5 7 1 0 4 4 1 8 5 7 8 2 1094 1111 8 1 0 4 5 1 9 8 3 3 2 1095 1576 8 1 0 4 6 2 1 8 0 3 2 1096 2187 8 1 0 4 7 2 5 3 6 5 2 1097 3065 8 1 0 4 8 4 0 5 5 8 2 1098 4311 8 1049 2999 3 1099 6196 8 1050 5581 3 11 0 1 4 2 3 2 8 F i g u r e A 3 : 1 1 - 2 K I T C H E N E R : "GAMMA" C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 467 0000 GAMMA C A L I B R A T I O N 0000 " M O D E L " D w e l l i n g s 30 1 37 29 1 3035 85 66 2 3 0 6 9 63 49 4 30 2 53 41 1 3036 87 67 2 3070 67 52 4 30 3 60 46 1 3037 90 69 2 3071 70 54 4 30 4 65 50 1 3038 92 71 2 3 0 7 2 73 56 4 30 5 68 53 1 3039 94 72 2 3 0 7 3 75 58 4 30 6 71 55 1 3040 96 74 2 3074 78 60 4 30 7 74 57 1 3041 99 76 2 3 0 7 5 80 62 4 30 8 77 59 1 3042 101 78 2 3076 83 64 4 30 9 79 61 1 3043 1 04 80 2 3077 85 65 4 301 0 82 63 1 3044 1 06 82 2 3078 87 67 4 301 1 84 65 1 3045 109 84 2 3 0 7 9 90 69 4 301 2 87 67 1 3046 1 1 2 86 2 3080 92 71 4 301 3 90 69 1. 3047 1 1 5 88 2 3081 95 73 4 301 4 93 72 1 3048 118 91 2 3 0 8 2 98 75 4 301 5 96 74 1 3049 121 93 2 3 0 8 3 100 77 4 301 6 100 77 1 3050 1 24 96 2 3 0 8 4 1 03 80 4 301 7 1 04 80 1 3051 1 28 99 2 3 0 8 5 1 06 82 4 3018 108 83 1 3052 1 33 103 2 3 0 8 6 1 10 84 4 301 9 1 1 2 87 1 3053 1 40 108 2 3087 1 1 3 87 4 3020 1 1 7 90 1 3054 1 52 1 1 7 2 3088 1 16 90 4 3021 122 94 1 3 0 5 5 1 95 1 50 2 3 0 8 9 1 19 92 4 3022 131 101 1 3056 69 53 3 3090 123 95 4 3023 1 42 1 10 1 3057 89 69 3 3091 1 27 98 4 3024 1 70 131 1 3058 99 76 3 3 0 9 2 1 34 1 04 4 3 0 2 5 41 31 2 3059 106 82 3 3 0 9 3 1 45 1 12 4 3 0 2 6 57 44 2 3060 1 1 3 87 3 3 0 9 4 194 1 50 4 3027 63 48 2 3061 121 93 3 3 0 9 5 45 35 5 3028 66 51 2 3062 1 29 99 3 3 0 9 6 71 55 5 3029 70 54 2 3063 1 40 108 3 3097 86 66 5 3030 73 56 2 3064 177 1 37 3 3098 101 78 5 3031 76 58 2 3065 32 24 4 3 0 9 9 120 93 5 3032 78 60 2 3066 48 37 4 31 0 183 141 5 3033 81 62 2 3067 54 42 4 3034 83 64 2 3068 59 45 4 0000 ZONAL DATA 40 1 9096 21 40 2 1 1 0 5 8 56 40 3 1 3 3 5 4 52 40 4 9653 91 40 5 1 0 9 9 3 93 40 610361 59 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 70 1 1 . 4 0 5 0 . 0 8 5 0 . 3 4 9 0 . 0 6 1 0 . 1 2 2 0 . 1 1 2 0 . 0 6 0 0 . 1 1 7 0 . 0 9 4 9 0 9 5 1 . 0 0 0 9 2 . 6 70 2 1 . 4 0 7 0 . 1 2 0 0 . 4 8 3 0 . 0 7 1 0 . 1 2 3 0 . 0 6 5 0 . 0 4 0 0 . 0 5 8 0 . 0 4 0 1 1 0 5 7 1 . 0 0 0 9 9 . 6 70 3 1 . 2 6 2 0 . 1 3 3 0 . 6 2 0 0 . 0 6 2 0 . 0 8 6 0 . 0 3 6 0 . 0 1 5 0 . 0 2 8 0 . 0 1 9 1 3 3 4 9 1 . 0 0 0 1 1 5 . 8 70 4 1 . 4 1 7 0 . 1 1 0 0 . 4 7 1 0 . 0 6 4 0 . 1 1 0 0 . 0 8 8 0 . 0 2 2 0 . 0 6 4 0 . 0 7 0 9 6 5 1 1 . 0 0 0 9 4 . 0 70 5 1 . 2 4 4 0 . 0 8 8 0 . 5 4 8 0 . 0 4 9 0 . 1 1 9 0 . 0 9 7 0 . 0 0 6 0 . 0 4 2 0 . 0 5 0 1 0 9 9 4 1 . 0 0 0 1 0 1 . 0 70 6 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 F i g u r e A 3 : 1 1 - 2 A K I T C H E N E R : "GAMMA" C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 468 0000 BETA C A L I B R A T I O N 0000 INCOME by T Y P E 0000 " M O D E L " HOUSEHOLDS 20 1 9121 10 1 808 1 1051 7 2 3 6 3 20 2 1 2 7 3 7 10 2 3424 1 1052 9 2 6 3 3 20 3 1 0 8 0 0 10 3 5478 1 1 0 5 3 1 0 4 5 6 3 20 4 1 2 7 5 8 10 4 7258 1 1 05411 518 3 20 5 6927 10 5 8381 1 1 0 5 5 1 2 8 1 7 3 20 6 7401 10 6 9013 1 1 0 5 6 1 4 9 1 5 3 20 7 8 1 7 6 10 7 9612 1 1 0 5 7 2 3 9 6 6 3 20 8 4721 10 8 1 0 3 2 2 1 1058 3151 4 10 911311 1 1059 5860 4 0000 A L P H A by T Y P E 1 0 1 0 1 2 5 7 5 1 1060 7497 4 21 1 . 1 6 3 4 1 0 1 1 1 3 8 2 6 1 1061 8 6 2 0 4 21 2 . 1 2 5 8 1 0 1 2 1 7 7 3 3 1 1062 9 4 1 4 4 21 3 . 1 3 9 5 1013 1193 2 1 0 6 3 1 0 2 1 3 4 21 4 . 1 1 8 8 1014 3663 2 1 0 6 4 1 0 9 0 6 4 21 5 . 2 0 5 4 1015 5025 2 1 0 6 5 1 1 9 7 3 4 21 6 . 2 0 5 4 1016 5873 2 106612711 4 21 7 . 1 6 3 4 1017 6735 2 1 0 6 7 1 3 7 7 7 4 21 8 . 2 8 1 9 1018 7303 2 1 0 6 8 1 5 0 8 7 4 1019 7775 2 1 0 6 9 1 6 2 7 5 4 1020 8141 2 1 0 7 0 1 7 9 4 9 4 1021 8796 2 1 0 7 1 2 0 3 3 7 4 1022 8 9 1 5 2 1 0 7 2 2 8 8 4 3 4 1023 9312 2 1073 1880 5 1024 9678 2 1074 3 1 3 2 5 1 0 2 5 1 0 0 2 9 2 1075 3809 5 1 0 2 6 1 0 4 4 5 2 1076 4 7 4 5 5 1 0 2 7 1 0 6 0 6 2 1077 6060 5 1 0 2 8 1 0 9 5 5 2 1078 7614 5 1 0 2 9 1 1 2 8 0 2 1 0 7 9 1 0 4 3 5 5 103011541 2 1 0 8 0 1 7 9 6 7 5 103112041 2 1081 2008 6 1 0 3 2 1 2 3 4 8 2 1082 4490 6 1 0 3 3 1 2 6 1 0 2 1083 5 9 1 3 6 1 0 3 4 1 3 0 0 7 2 1084 7 2 2 2 6 1 0 3 5 1 3 3 5 0 2 1085 9448 6 1 0 3 6 1 3 8 2 3 2 1 0 8 6 1 5 3 1 4 6 1 0 3 7 1 4 2 7 6 2 1087 2273 7 1 0 3 8 1 4 7 8 7 2 1088 4 6 6 3 7 1 0 3 9 1 5 3 1 7 2 1089 5804 7 1 0 4 0 1 5 9 1 7 2 1090 7 4 6 5 7 104116601 2 1091 9 4 0 9 7 1 0 4 2 1 7 1 7 4 2 1 0 9 2 1 1 4 1 8 7 1 0 4 3 1 7 7 5 9 2 1 0 9 3 1 6 3 1 5 7 1 0 4 4 1 8 5 7 8 2 1094 1111 8 1 0 4 5 1 9 8 3 3 2 1095 1576 8 1 0 4 6 2 1 8 0 3 2 1096 2187 8 1 0 4 7 2 5 3 6 5 2 1097 3 0 6 5 8 1 0 4 8 4 0 5 5 8 2 1098 4311 8 1049 2999 3 1099 6 1 9 6 8 1050 5581 3 11 0 1 4 2 3 2 8 F i g u r e A 3 : 1 2 - 2 K I T C H E N E R : " B E T A " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 469 0000 BETA C A L I B R A T I O N 0000 " M O D E L " D w e l l i n g s 30 1 29 1 3 0 3 5 90 2 30 2 46 1 3036 97 2 30 3 50 1 3037 108 2 30 4 52 1 3038 1 44 2 30 5 55 1 3039 83 3 30 6 58 1 3040 25 4 30 7 60 1 3041 40 4 30 8 62 1 3042 47 4 30 9 64 1 3043 51 4 301 0 67 1 3044 53 4 301 1 69 1 3 0 4 5 56 4 301 2 72 1 3046 59 4 301 3 75 1 3047 61 4 3014 78 1 3048 63 4 301 5 83 1 3049 66 4 3016 87 1 3050 68 4 3017 92 1 3051 70 4 3018 98 1 3052 73 4 3019 106 1 3053 75 4 3020 144 1 3054 78 4 3021 38 2 3 0 5 5 82 4 3022 46 2 3056 86 4 3023 51 2 3057 91 4 3024 56 2 3058 96 4 3025 60 2 3059 1 02 4 3026 64 2 3060 1 1 4 4 3027 68 2 3061 1 69 4 3028 70 2 3062 58 5 3029 73 2 3063 1 39 5 3030 76 2 3031 79 2 3032 81 2 3033 84 2 3034 87 2 0000 ZONAL DATA 40 1 9096 40 211058 40 3 1 3 3 5 4 40 4 9653 40 5 1 0 9 9 3 40 610361 21 56 52 91 93 59 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 70 70 70 70 70 70 1 1 21 31 41 51 61 401 0 4890 441 0 4330 2380 4200 0 8 2 0 , 1 020 , 1240 1090 0880 3 4 4 0 , 4 6 3 0 , 5870 , 4 7 0 0 , 5460 , 0 6 0 0 , 0640 0640 0630 0490 1 2 5 0 . 5 0 7 0 . 0 7 0 0 1 2 1 0 . 1 1 4 0 . 0 6 0 0 . 1 2 0 0 . 0 9 8 9 0 3 6 1 . 0 0 0 8 9 . 6 1 3 0 0 . 0 8 4 0 . 0 3 9 0 . 0 6 6 0 . 0 5 3 1 1 0 0 6 0 . 9 6 2 8 7 . 5 1 0 3 0 . 0 5 1 0 . 0 2 0 0 . 0 3 2 0 . 0 1 9 1 5 0 0 0 1 . 0 0 0 9 5 . 8 1 1 0 0 . 0 9 0 0 . 0 2 2 0 . 0 6 6 0 . 0 7 1 9 6 4 0 0 . 9 8 6 8 9 . 3 1 1 9 0 . 0 9 8 0 . 0 0 6 0 . 0 4 2 0 . 0 5 2 1 0 9 6 1 1 . 0 0 0 1 0 1 . 6 1 1 0 0 . 0 6 2 0 . 0 3 1 0 . 0 5 4 0 . 0 4 2 1 0 8 5 8 1 . 0 0 0 1 1 1 . 6 F i g u r e A 3 : 1 2 - 2 A K I T C H E N E R : " B E T A " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 470 0000 P o l i c y D a t a s e t 0000 " M O D E L " HOUSEHOLDS a n d B A S E DATA 10 1 808 1 20 .611 3 3 . 5 1051 7236 3 291 . 3 8 0 7 8 . 9 10 2 3424 1 461 . 1 8 2 5 8 . 4 1052 9263 3 561 . 3 5 6 9 2 . 1 10 3 5478 1 51 1 .331 7 4 . 1 1 0 5 3 1 0 4 5 6 . 3 9991 . 4 2 0 9 7 . 5 10 4 7258 1 141 . 4 2 0 8 5 . 7 1 0 5 4 1 1 5 1 8 3 9991 . 4 2 0 1 0 3 . 3 10 5 8381 1 9991 . 4 2 0 9 3 . 5 1 0 5 5 1 2 8 1 7 3 9991 . 4 2 0 1 1 0 . 2 10 6 9013 1 571 . 3 8 4 9 8 . 5 1 0 5 6 1 4 9 1 5 3 9991 . 4 2 0 1 2 0 . 7 10 7 9612 1 9991 . 4 2 0 1 0 1 . 5 1 0 5 7 2 3 9 6 6 3 9991 . 4 2 0 1 6 0 . 4 10 8 1 0 3 2 2 1 361 . 4 1 0 1 0 6 . 2 1058 3151 4 31 . 0 8 5 4 7 . 3 10 911311 1 9991 . 4 2 0 1 1 1 . 9 1059 5860 4 71 . 3 4 2 6 3 . 8 1 0 1 0 1 2 5 7 5 1 9991 . 4 2 0 1 1 9 . 3 1060 7497 4 101 . 3 9 9 7 3 . 0 1 0 1 1 1 3 8 2 6 1 9991 . 4 2 0 1 2 6 . 2 1061 8620 4 121 . 4 1 8 7 9 . 1 1 0 1 2 1 7 7 3 3 1 381 . 3 0 8 1 5 1 . 0 1062 9414 4 301 . 4 1 6 8 3 . 4 1013 1193 2 430 . 5 9 2 3 6 . 7 1 0 6 3 1 0 2 1 3 4 9991 . 4 2 0 8 7 . 5 1014 3663 2 51 . 1 52 5 3 . 7 1 0 6 4 1 0 9 0 6 4 151 . 4 1 6 9 1 . 1 1015 5025 2 251 .291 6 2 . 4 1 0 6 5 1 1 9 7 3 4 9991 . 4 2 0 9 6 . 3 1016 5873 2 261 . 3 3 3 6 7 . 8 106612711 4 171 . 3 9 9 1 0 0 . 3 1017 6 7 3 5 2 271 . 3 6 5 7 3 . 0 1 0 6 7 1 3 7 7 7 4 9991 . 4 2 0 1 0 4 . 7 1018 7303 2 521 . 3 3 2 7 7 . 3 1 0 6 8 1 5 0 8 7 4 9991 . 4 2 0 1 1 0 . 6 1019 7 7 7 5 2 531 . 3 4 7 8 0 . 0 1 0 6 9 1 6 2 7 5 4 9991 . 4 2 0 1 1 5 . 8 1020 8141 2 131 . 3 8 9 81 . 4 1 0 7 0 1 7 9 4 9 4 9991 . 4 2 0 1 2 2 . 8 1021 8 7 9 6 2 9991 . 4 2 0 8 4 . 7 1 0 7 1 2 0 3 3 7 4 9991 . 4 2 0 1 3 2 . 3 1022 8 9 1 5 2 9991 . 4 2 0 8 5 . 4 1 0 7 2 2 8 8 4 3 4 9991 . 4 2 0 1 6 3 . 2 1023 9312 2 551 . 3 7 6 8 8 . 5 1073 1880 5 41 . 0 5 9 4 8 . 5 1024 9678 2 391 . 3 9 3 9 0 . 2 1074 3132 5 471 . 2 3 0 6 1 . 8 1 0 2 5 1 0 0 2 9 2 331 . 4 0 7 91 . 9 1075 3809 5 81 . 3 6 5 6 6 . 6 1 0 2 6 1 0 4 4 5 2 341 .391 9 4 . 5 1076 4 7 4 5 5 281 . 3 8 0 7 5 . 7 1 0 2 7 1 0 6 0 6 2 161 . 4 0 5 9 5 . 1 1077 6060 5 31 1 . 4 1 7 8 6 . 7 1 0 2 8 1 0 9 5 5 2 9991 . 4 2 0 9 6 . 6 * 1078 7614 5 9991 . 4 2 0 9 9 . 4 1 0 2 9 1 1 2 8 0 2 9991 . 4 2 0 9 8 . 3 1 0 7 9 1 0 4 3 5 5 9991 . 4 2 0 1 2 0 . 1 103011541 2 9991 . 4 2 0 9 9 . 7 1 0 8 0 1 7 9 6 7 5 9 9 9 1 . 4 2 0 1 6 6 . 4 103112041 2 9991 . 4 2 0 1 0 2 . 2 1081 2008 6 241 . 0 5 0 5 2 . 1 1 0 3 2 1 2 3 4 8 2 9991 . 4 2 0 1 0 3 . 8 1082 4490 6 1 1 1 . 391 7 4 . 9 1 0 3 3 1 2 6 1 0 2 9991 . 4 2 0 1 0 5 . 1 1083 5913 6 321 . 3 9 7 8 8 . 2 1 0 3 4 1 3 0 0 7 2 9991 . 4 2 0 1 0 7 . 1 1084 7222 6 351 . 4 1 9 9 8 . 9 1 0 3 5 1 3 3 5 0 2 591 . 3 7 3 1 0 9 . 9 1085 9448 6 191 . 4 1 5 1 1 6 . 3 1 0 3 6 1 3 8 2 3 2 9991 . 4 2 0 1 1 1 . 1 1 0 8 6 1 5 3 1 4 6 201 . 3 9 1 1 5 6 . 5 1 0 3 7 1 4 2 7 6 2 9991 . 4 2 0 1 1 3 . 2 1087 2273 7 440 . 9 7 3 4 7 . 4 1 0 3 8 1 4 7 8 7 2 9991 . 4 2 0 1 1 5 . 7 1088 4663 7 481 . 2 8 2 6 5 . 3 1 0 3 9 1 5 3 1 7 2 371 . 4 1 2 1 1 8 . 3 1089 5804 7 501 . 3 6 0 7 2 . 9 1 0 4 0 1 5 9 1 7 2 601 . 3 6 4 1 2 2 . 4 1090 7 4 6 5 7 541 . 3 8 0 8 4 . 3 104116601 2 9991 . 4 2 0 1 2 4 . 0 1091 9409 7 9991 . 4 2 0 9 5 . 9 1 0 4 2 1 7 1 7 4 2 9991 . 4 2 0 1 2 6 . 5 1 0 9 2 1 1 4 1 8 7 181 . 4 2 0 1 0 7 . 7 1 0 4 3 1 7 7 5 9 2 9991 . 4 2 0 1 2 9 . 1 1 0 9 3 1 6 3 1 5 7 9991 . 4 2 0 1 3 3 . 5 1 0 4 4 1 8 5 7 8 2 9991 . 4 2 0 1 3 2 . 6 1094 1111 8 230 .951 4 5 . 1 1 0 4 5 1 9 8 3 3 2 9991 . 4 2 0 1 3 7 . 9 1095 1576 8 621 . 0 2 8 5 3 . 3 1 0 4 6 2 1 8 0 3 2 631 . 3 5 0 1 4 8 . 4 1096 2187 8 61 . 2 4 0 5 9 . 0 1 0 4 7 2 5 3 6 5 2 9991 . 4 2 0 1 5 9 . 9 1097 3065 8 491 . 3 3 0 6 9 . 8 1 0 4 8 4 0 5 5 8 2 9991 . 4 2 0 2 1 1 . 9 1098 4311 8 9991 . 4 2 0 8 3 . 2 1049 2999 3 451 . 0 3 4 51 . 7 1099 6196 8 581 . 3 9 2 1 0 4 . 3 1050 5581 3 91 . 3 4 4 6 8 . 1 1 1 0 0 1 4 2 3 2 8 61 1 . 3 0 6 1 7 7 . 0 F i g u r e A 3 : 1 3 - 2 K I T C H E N E R : P o l i c y D a t a s e t 471 0000 P o l i c y D a t a s e t 0000 30 1 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 8 30 9 3010 301 1 301 2 3013 3014 301 5 301 6 301 7 3018 301 9 3020 3021 3022 3023 3024 3025 3026 3027 3028 3029 3030 3031 3032 3033 3034 " M O D E L " 29 46 50 52 55 58 60 62 64 67 69 72 75 78 83 87 92 98 1 06 1 44 38 46 51 56 60 64 68 70 73 76 79 81 84 87 DWELLINGS 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 1 9121 2 1 2 7 3 7 3 1 0 8 0 0 4 1 2 7 5 8 5 6927 6 7401 7 8176 8 4721 3035 3036 3037 3038 3039 3040 3041 3042 3043 3044 3 0 4 5 3046 3047 3048 3049 3050 3051 3052 3053 3054 3055 3056 3057 3058 3059 3060 3061 3062 3063 0000 INCOME by T Y P E 0000 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 90 97 108 1 44 83 25 40 47 51 53 56 59 61 63 66 68 70 73 75 78 82 86 91 96 1 02 1 1 4 1 69 58 1 39 A L P H A 1634 1 258 1395 1 188 2054 2054 1634 281 9 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 by T Y P E 0000 ZONAL DATA 40 40 40 40 6661 7426 9 1 8 5 6586 40 5 1 1 0 9 5 40 6 1 3 9 0 8 21 56 52 91 93 59 F i g u r e A 3 : 1 3 - 2 ( c o n t ) K I T C H E N E R : P o l i c y D a t a s e t RENTAL MODEL OWNER-OCCUPIER MODEL CONSTANT 2 . 7 3 0 3 1 .3861 ( 2 1 . 0 ) ( 7 . 0 6 ) BATH 0 . 1 5 5 1 na ( 1 . 8 4 ) T O I L E T - . 0 5 2 1 0 . 0 2 9 2 ( 0 . 4 9 ) ( 0 . 2 7 ) S U B S I D I S - . 4 8 3 5 - . 0 2 8 1 ( 1 3 . 9 ) ( 0 . 2 9 ) L N L I V I N G 0 . 2 2 3 7 0 . 1 8 4 3 ( 7 . 1 3 ) ( 5 . 4 3 ) LNINCOM 0 . 1 3 2 3 0 . 2 0 9 7 ( 1 0 . 3 ) ( 1 2 . 5 ) T Y P E - . 0 5 0 2 - . 0 9 5 0 ( 3 . 5 7 ) ( 4 . 1 9 ) L N D I S T 0 . 0 1 2 2 0 . 0 0 0 4 ( 1 . 7 5 ) ( 0 . 0 6 ) B51 60 - . 0 6 3 6 - . 0 7 0 5 ( 3 . 0 8 ) ( 3 . 9 1 ) B 4 6 5 0 - . 1 2 3 7 - . 1 2 3 3 ( 3 . 4 0 ) ( 4 . 8 6 ) B21 45 - . 1 3 2 5 - . 1 3 7 5 ( 5 . 5 3 ) ( 6 . 4 8 ) B P R E 2 0 - . 2 4 5 5 - . 1532 ( 1 2 . 6 ) ( 7 . 4 4 ) L G L V S I Z E 0 . 0 8 8 8 0 . 1 4 9 1 ( 4 . 7 3 ) ( 5 . 5 8 ) L G B D S I Z E 0 . 1 0 2 5 0 . 1287 ( 1 3 . 4 ) ( 7 . 4 7 ) OPENSP 0 . 0 2 4 4 0 . 0 0 8 1 ( 1 . 3 9 ) ( 0 . 3 3 ) HIGHDEN 0 . 0 1 6 4 - . 0 3 2 1 ( 1 . 2 3 ) ( 1 . 3 1 ) COMMERC - . 0 2 0 9 na ( 1 . 4 1 ) NEIGHBD 0 . 0 4 2 1 na ( 1 . 4 0 ) F I N A N C E - . 0 1 6 0 - . 0 5 6 7 ( 1 . 1 6 ) ( 3 . 2 7 ) AMRATE na 0 . 0 8 7 5 ( 2 4 . 9 ) R2 0 . 5 4 0 . 5 4 O b s e r v a t i o n s 1353 1425 n o t e : " t " s t a t i s t i c s i n b r a c k e t s : d a t a s o u r c e : K I T . R E G 0 2 F i g u r e A 3 : 1 4 - 2 K I T C H E N E R : 1971 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s f o r T r a n s l o g s 473 t r a n s l o g M p h * X H T Y P E 1 mean 4 6 1 . 5 1 1 3 . 5 m i n 6 0 . 8 2 9 . 5 max 1 9 4 7 . 9 2 8 7 . 2 T Y P E 2 mean 4 5 5 . 2 1 1 5 . 3 m i n 5 6 . 7 6 . 6 max 1 8 1 6 . 1 2 4 2 . 1 T Y P E 3 mean 7 8 8 . 1 1 3 2 . 3 m i n 5 4 . 7 3 0 . 4 max 2 0 7 7 . 2 2 8 2 . 3 T Y P E 4 mean 5 2 3 . 3 1 3 5 . 3 m i n 1 2 6 . 4 4 1 . 0 max 1 3 8 0 . 3 2 7 6 . 6 T Y P E 5 mean 7 1 9 . 7 1 3 9 . 7 m i n 1 7 3 . 5 6 3 . 2 max 2 1 2 7 . 8 2 5 4 . 4 T Y P E 6 mean 6 6 6 . 7 2 5 5 . 4 m i n 1 7 0 . 1 5 5 . 7 max 3 1 0 7 . 1 9 4 4 . 1 T Y P E 7 mean 7 6 0 . 2 2 4 5 . 0 m i n 2 5 2 . 0 8 8 . 7 max 1 5 8 7 . 8 7 6 2 . 6 T Y P E 8 mean 1 1 3 9 . 8 2 5 2 . 9 m i n 3 5 9 . 3 4 5 . 9 max 3 1 9 5 . 2 6 9 1 . 4 T Y P E 9 mean 8 9 2 . 1 2 5 3 . 3 m i n 1 6 2 . 1 9 5 . 1 max 3 8 0 7 . 7 6 5 1 . 7 T Y P E 10 mean 1 0 5 0 . 6 2 5 6 . 9 m i n 2 6 2 . 1 7 7 . 3 max 3 7 2 6 . 6 8 4 9 . 8 v a r i a b l e s p h * X H p h pg M 1 . 6 4 6 1 .300 0 . 3 2 0 9 1 . 5 6 5 1 .300 0 . 0 5 1 6 1 . 7 8 6 1 .300 0 . 9 3 7 7 1 .657 1 .300 0 . 2 9 6 4 1 . 5 6 5 1 .300 0 . 0 7 1 9 1 .850 1 .300 0 . 9 8 8 1 1 .672 1 .300 0 . 2 0 2 5 1 .565 1 .300 0 . 0 6 0 9 1 .890 1 .300 0 . 8 4 3 0 1 .690 1 .300 0 . 2 9 5 6 1 . 5 6 5 1 .300 0 . 0 6 6 3 1 .878 1 .300 0 . 8 9 6 4 1 .690 1 .300 0 . 2 1 8 6 1 . 5 6 5 1 .300 0 . 0 7 0 4 1 .852 1 .300 0 . 8 2 7 7 2 . 2 6 7 1 .300 0 . 4 4 5 6 2 . 0 2 7 1 .300 0 . 0 5 8 4 2 . 3 2 5 1 .300 0 . 9 8 9 2 2 . 3 3 8 1 .300 0 . 3 4 6 9 2 . 0 8 2 1 .300 0 . 1 0 0 4 2 . 3 8 7 1 .300 0 . 8 5 4 3 2 . 3 5 6 1 .300 0 . 2 3 7 1 2 . 0 8 5 1 .300 0 . 0 4 4 8 2 . 3 9 7 1 .300 0 . 5 4 5 5 2 . 3 9 5 1 .300 0 . 2 9 9 5 2 . 1 2 6 1 .300 0 . 1 0 2 6 2 . 4 3 8 1 .300 0 . 9 0 8 7 2 . 3 8 6 1 .300 0 . 2 5 6 1 2 . 1 1 5 1 .300 0 . 0 8 3 3 2 . 4 2 7 1 .300 0 . 8 1 5 3 F i g u r e A 3 : 1 5 - 2 K I T C H E N E R : T r a n s l o g I n p u t V a r i a b l e s S t a t i s t i c s A1 + B11 * l n X H +' B12 * l n X G SHARE = > - 1 . + BM1 * l n X H + BM2 * l n X G T Y P E A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 - . 2 6 2 6 - . 1 3 8 9 0 . 1 7 6 8 0 . 1 5 3 7 - . 0 2 9 2 6 9 . 0 2 6 7 . 7 4 6 1 . 5 193 ( 1 3 4 . ) ( 1 5 . 4 ) ( 4 6 . 6 ) ( 5 . 2 9 ) ( 5 . 2 9 ) 2 - . 2 6 7 8 - . 1 7 2 7 0 . 2 1 7 2 0 . 0 6 5 3 0 . 0 4 0 9 6 9 . 5 2 6 1 . 4 4 5 5 . 2 307 ( 1 6 3 . ) ( 2 3 . 5 ) ( 5 3 . 6 ) ( 2 . 5 6 ) ( 7 . 2 3 ) 3 - . 1 7 4 6 - . 1 2 1 9 0 . 1 3 6 3 0 . 1 1 5 8 - . 1 0 5 5 7 9 . 0 5 0 4 . 5 7 8 8 . 1 396 ( 2 5 1 . ) ( 2 6 . 8 ) ( 6 9 . 5 ) ( 6 . 8 7 ) ( 3 1 . 1 ) 4 - . 2 6 5 8 - . 1 1 7 0 0 . 1 8 4 1 0 . 2 6 5 8 - . 0 3 5 5 7 9 . 9 2 9 8 . 5 5 2 3 . 3 181 ( 2 4 5 . ) ( 1 2 . 9 ) ( 5 3 . 3 ) ( 8 . 4 9 ) ( 6 . 3 9 ) 5 - . 1 9 9 1 - . 1 1 1 2 0 . 1 4 5 0 0 . 2 4 1 2 - . 0 9 8 6 8 2 . 5 4 4 6 . 2 7 1 9 . 7 276 ( 2 5 3 . ) ( 1 4 . 0 ) ( 5 9 . 4 ) ( 7 . 4 2 ) ( 2 1 . 7 ) 6 - . 3 9 9 9 - . 2 2 8 5 0 . 2 3 9 0 - . 0 6 5 1 0 . 0 5 7 9 1 1 2 . 6 3 1 6 . 4 6 6 6 . 7 307 ( 2 1 0 . ) ( 2 3 . 3 ) ( 5 1 . 1 ) ( 2 . 6 7 ) ( 8 . 6 1 ) 7 - . 3 2 7 9 - . 1 5 8 1 0 . 1 9 7 6 0 . 1 3 9 7 - . 0 2 2 3 1 0 4 . 7 3 9 6 . 3 7 6 0 . 2 112 ( 2 2 1 . ) ( 2 2 . 5 ) ( 3 7 . 5 ) ( 8 . 1 2 ) ( 2 . 6 3 ) 8 - . 2 2 3 4 - . 1 0 9 2 0 . 1 1 9 2 0 . 2 4 5 0 - . 2 0 3 1 1 0 7 . 3 6 8 2 . 2 1 1 3 9 . 8 271 ( 5 6 6 . ) ( 4 2 . 6 ) ( 5 0 . 8 ) ( 2 4 . 0 ) ( 3 6 . 3 ) 9 - . 2 8 7 9 - . 1 5 9 2 0 . 1 9 1 8 0 . 1 4 4 0 - . 0 3 2 4 1 0 5 . 7 4 9 1 . 4 8 9 2 . 1 245 ( 4 0 1 . ) ( 3 0 . 4 ) ( 6 5 . 5 ) ( 9 . 2 4 ) ( 6 . 5 1 ) 10 - . 2 4 7 9 - . 1 2 6 6 0 . 1 6 2 5 0 . 2 1 4 1 - . 0 8 4 2 1 0 7 . 6 6 1 0 . 5 1 0 5 0 . 6 490 ( 5 9 8 . ) ( 4 7 . 0 ) ( 9 4 . 9 ) ( 2 3 . 6 ) ( 2 3 . 7 ) n o t e : [ 1 ] " t " v a l u e s i n b r a c k e t s [ 2 ] MQH i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s MQX i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s ME i s t h e mean e x p e n d i t u r e # i s t h e number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A 3 : 1 6 - 2 K I T C H E N E R : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e [ a l l i n c o m e l e v e l s ] 475 A1 + B11 * l n X H + B12 * l n X G SHARE = - - -- 1 . + BM1 * l n X H + BM2 * l n X G T Y P E A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 - . 3 7 4 2 - . 1 4 9 2 0 . 2 4 5 1 0 . 1 8 5 0 0 . 0 5 8 5 6 1 . 2 1 3 2 . 8 2 7 3 . 0 118 ( 2 0 1 . ) ( 1 5 . 2 ) ( 3 8 . 5 ) ( 6 . 7 2 ) ( 6 . 4 3 ) 2 - . 3 3 9 3 - . 1 6 3 4 0 . 2 8 2 3 0 . 1 0 9 0 0 . 1 2 1 0 6 3 . 3 1 6 7 . 2 3 2 1 . 8 177 ( 1 7 8 . ) ( 1 7 . 8 ) ( 4 1 . 7 ) ( 3 . 9 9 ) ( 1 3 . 0 ) 3 - . 2 3 8 0 - . 1 1 1 0 0 . 1 8 2 4 0 . 1 9 4 9 - . 0 5 2 5 7 5 . 1 3 2 0 . 8 5 4 2 . 5 199 ( 2 5 2 . ) ( 1 6 . 2 ) ( 4 6 . 9 ) ( 8 . 7 8 ) ( 7 . 9 9 ) 4 - . 3 4 1 7 - . 1 3 8 6 0 . 2 3 6 0 0 . 2 1 6 4 0 . 0 3 6 0 7 1 . 4 1 8 1 . 2 3 5 4 . 9 93 ( 2 6 9 . ) ( 9 . 7 5 ) ( 4 1 . 1 ) ( 5 . 4 7 ) ( 4 . 1 3 ) 5 - . 2 5 3 4 - . 1 0 8 1 0 . 1 9 3 9 0 . 2 8 6 4 - . 0 3 5 0 7 9 . 2 3 0 9 . 1 5 3 5 . 5 143 ( 2 7 3 . ) ( 1 0 . 8 ) ( 4 4 . 5 ) ( 8 . 3 0 ) ( 4 . 5 8 ) 6 - . 5 1 4 3 - . 1 8 8 8 0 . 3 3 5 9 0 . 0 4 7 7 0 . 1 9 4 4 1 0 0 . 5 1 7 1 . 8 4 5 1 . 7 194 ( 2 8 7 . ) ( 1 4 . 9 ) ( 3 4 . 8 ) ( 1 . 6 9 ) ( 1 4 . 5 ) 7 - . 3 7 8 0 - . 1 6 4 7 0 . 2 4 8 3 0 . 1 5 6 9 0 . 0 5 2 9 9 0 . 5 2 7 0 . 6 5 6 2 . 2 63 ( 2 1 1 . ) ( 1 3 . 0 ) ( 2 4 . 8 ) ( 5 . 0 1 ) ( 3 . 6 1 ) 8 - . 2 5 5 8 - . 1 1 4 7 0 . 1 3 4 6 0 . 2 6 1 2 - . 1 8 2 2 9 6 . 4 5 0 8 . 8 8 8 8 . 5 151 ( 4 3 4 . ) ( 2 9 . 4 ) ( 2 3 . 3 ) ( 1 7 . 6 ) ( 1 3 . 5 ) 9 - . 3 0 9 6 - . 1 5 0 6 0 . 2 2 4 1 0 . 1 8 5 1 0 . 0 0 8 8 9 0 . 0 3 7 4 . 4 7 0 2 . 2 150 ( 3 8 2 . ) . ( 1 7 . 4 ) ( 4 7 . 2 ) ( 7 . 1 0 ) ( 1 . 2 5 ) 10 - . 2 7 2 2 - . 1 2 4 1 0 . 1 9 7 0 0 . 2 3 3 2 - . 0 3 1 5 9 5 . 8 4 7 5 . 1 8 4 5 . 9 298 ( 5 7 3 . ) ( 3 1 . 7 ) ( 6 3 . 7 ) ( 1 9 . 1 ) ( 5 . 7 1 ) n o t e : [ 1 ] " t " v a l u e s i n b r a c k e t s [ 2 ] MQH i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s MQX i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s ME i s t h e mean e x p e n d i t u r e # i s t h e number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A 3 : 1 7 - 2 K I T C H E N E R : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e [ b e l o w mean i n c o m e ] A1 + B11 * l n X H + B12 * l n X G SHARE = - 1 . + BM1 * l n X H + BM2 * l n X G T Y P E A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 - . 1 7 8 3 - . 0 7 9 3 0 . 0 8 9 5 0 . 3 3 8 3 - . 2 7 9 2 8 1 . 3 4 7 9 . 9 7 5 8 . 2 75 ( 2 4 3 . ) ( 1 9 . 8 ) ( 2 2 . 6 ) ( 1 4 . 3 ) ( 1 5 . 8 ) 2 - . 2 0 4 2 - . 0 9 9 3 0 . 0 9 5 9 0 . 3 0 2 7 - . 2 8 8 3 7 7 . 9 3 8 9 . 8 6 3 6 . 9 130 ( 3 3 4 . ) ( 2 0 . 7 ) ( 1 4 . 0 ) ( 1 3 . 8 ) ( 9 . 0 5 ) 3 - . 1 3 5 0 - . 0 7 9 9 0 . 0 7 5 9 0 . 2 7 9 3 - . 2 9 5 2 8 2 . 9 6 9 0 . 0 1 0 3 6 . 2 197 ( 3 4 5 . ) ( 2 0 . 1 ) ( 1 4 . 6 ) ( 1 0 . 9 ) ( 8 . 3 0 ) 4 - . 2 1 6 4 - . 0 8 9 6 0 . 1 1 3 0 0 . 3 9 1 7 - . 2 3 5 8 8 8 . 9 4 2 2 . 4 7 0 1 . 3 88 ( 2 5 5 . ) ( 1 1 . 7 ) ( 1 0 . 9 ) ( 1 0 . 0 ) ( 5 . 3 4 ) 5 - . 1 5 9 6 - . 0 8 5 4 0 . 0 8 2 4 0 . 3 2 3 5 - . 2 8 6 1 8 6 . 0 5 9 3 . 6 9 1 7 . 7 133 ( 3 0 4 . ) ( 1 4 . 0 ) ( 1 3 . 3 ) ( 9 . 6 3 ) ( 6 . 9 7 ) 6 - . 2 9 8 5 - . 1 7 7 6 0 . 1 7 2 9 0 . 0 5 9 0 - . 0 4 5 6 1 3 3 . 2 5 6 4 . 7 1 0 3 5 . 9 113 ( 1 8 2 . ) ( 1 7 . 5 ) ( 2 1 . 6 ) ( 1 . 9 2 ) ( 2 . 3 2 ) 7 - . 2 8 8 9 - . 1 4 5 6 0 . 1 6 4 3 0 . 1 3 6 1 - . 0 8 5 6 1 2 2 . 9 5 5 7 . 8 1 0 1 4 . 8 49 ( 2 5 1 . ) ( 1 8 . 8 ) ( 1 2 . 7 ) ( 3 . 9 6 ) ( 2 . 2 0 ) 8 - . 1 9 7 3 - . 1 0 2 9 0 . 1 0 0 2 0 . 2 4 1 0 - . 2 5 7 6 1 2 1 . 1 9 0 0 . 5 1 4 5 6 . 0 120 ( 3 8 7 . ) ( 3 1 . 4 ) ( 1 7 . 3 ) ( 1 6 . 5 ) ( 9 . 4 1 ) 9 - . 2 6 5 0 - . 1 4 1 5 0 . 1 5 0 5 0 . 1 6 6 6 - . 1 1 8 9 1 3 0 . 7 6 7 6 . 0 1 1 9 2 . 0 95 ( 3 7 8 . ) ( 2 1 . 4 ) ( 2 7 . 6 ) ( 6 . 6 1 ) ( 6 . 0 8 ) 10 - . 2 2 2 0 - . 1 1 4 0 0 . 1 3 4 5 0 . 2 3 5 6 - . 1 4 2 0 1 2 5 . 9 8 2 0 . 7 1 3 6 8 . 3 192 ( 5 8 3 . ) ( 5 6 . 7 ) ( 4 5 . 0 ) ( 3 1 . 8 ) ( 1 4 . 5 ) n o t e : [ 1 ] " t " v a l u e s i n b r a c k e t s [ 2 ] MQH i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s MQX i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s ME i s t h e mean e x p e n d i t u r e # i s t h e number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A 3 : 1 8 - 2 K I T C H E N E R : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e [ a b o v e mean i n c o m e ] A1 + B11 * l n X H + B12 * l n X G SHARE = - 1 . + BM1 * l n X H + BM2 * l n X G T Y P E A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 - . 4 7 5 1 - . 1 6 7 4 0 . 2 7 9 6 0 . 1 4 0 7 0 . 1 2 1 2 5 1 . 8 7 2 . 5 1 7 9 . 0 57 ( 1 8 7 . ) ( 1 4 . 5 ) ( 3 0 . 8 ) ( 5 . 1 2 ) ( 9 . 4 7 ) 2 - . 4 4 6 3 - . 1 8 2 7 0 . 3 3 0 9 0 . 0 5 1 5 0 . 1 8 7 7 6 1 . 4 1 0 2 . 6 2 3 4 . 4 80 ( 1 5 9 . ) ( 1 9 . 1 ) ( 3 1 . 1 ) ( 1 . 8 8 ) ( 1 3 . 4 ) 3 - . 3 3 2 0 - . 1 5 6 7 0 . 2 3 0 3 0 . 1 2 4 4 0 . 0 0 8 3 7 4 . 8 1 9 9 . 1 3 8 3 . 3 87 ( 2 2 5 . ) ( 8 . 0 4 ) ( 2 9 . 3 ) ( 2 . 6 7 ) ( 0 . 6 5 ) 4 - . 4 0 9 2 - . 1 1 0 4 0 . 2 8 4 6 0 . 2 5 1 8 0 . 1 0 7 8 6 5 . 0 1 2 1 . 6 2 6 5 . 6 47 ( 2 8 7 . ) ( 1 0 . 1 ) ( 3 6 . 0 ) ( 9 . 6 5 ) ( 9 . 7 2 ) 5 - . 3 2 1 1 - . 1 3 6 6 0 . 2 2 1 9 0 . 2 3 1 8 0 . 0 0 1 7 7 7 . 1 2 1 6 . 2 4 1 1 . 7 60 ( 1 9 2 . ) ( 6 . 2 3 ) ( 2 6 . 0 ) ( 3 . 6 4 ) ( 0 . 1 2 ) 6 - . 5 9 0 1 - . 1 3 4 5 0 . 3 7 9 4 0 . 1 3 1 7 0 . 2 4 6 3 8 7 . 9 1 0 6 . 9 3 3 7 . 6 94 ( 2 9 5 . ) ( 8 . 7 6 ) ( 2 1 . 8 ) ( 4 . 7 7 ) ( 1 0 . 4 ) 7 - . 4 3 4 0 - . 1 6 0 1 0 . 3 2 6 3 0 . 1 3 5 4 0 . 1 5 4 2 8 5 . 3 2 0 0 . 8 4 5 7 . 6 29 ( 1 6 0 . ) ( 7 . 6 0 ) ( 1 5 . 8 ) ( 2 . 9 9 ) ( 5 . 4 9 ) 8 - . 3 0 9 1 - . 1 4 7 1 0 . 1 3 6 2 0 . 1 9 0 0 - . 2 0 4 1 9 1 . 8 3 6 8 . 0 6 9 3 . 2 57 ( 2 4 5 . ) ( 1 8 . 9 ) ( 1 1 . 4 ) ( 7 . 8 4 ) ( 7 . 4 1 ) 9 - . 3 4 3 6 - . 1 4 0 1 0 . 2 4 2 8 0 . 2 0 8 1 0 . 0 3 5 7 7 9 . 1 2 8 1 . 8 5 5 5 . 3 57 ( 2 0 3 . ) ( 9 . 1 2 ) ( 2 9 . 9 ) ( 4 . 9 5 ) ( 3 . 2 2 ) 10 - . 2 9 7 7 - . 1 2 1 9 0 . 2 2 3 7 0 . 2 3 8 9 0 . 0 0 8 8 8 8 . 3 3 8 6 . 0 7 1 2 . 0 133 ( 3 9 9 . ) ( 1 6 . 6 ) ( 4 0 . 8 ) ( 1 1 . 1 ) ( 0 . 9 8 ) n o t e : [ 1 ] " t " v a l u e s i n b r a c k e t s [ 2 ] MQH i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s MQX i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s ME i s t h e mean e x p e n d i t u r e # i s t h e number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A 3 : 1 9 - 2 K I T C H E N E R : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e [ q u a r t i l e 0 1 ] 478 A1 + B11 * l n X H + B12 * l n X G SHARE = - 1 . + BM1 * l n X H + BM2 * l n X G T Y P E A1 B1 1 B1 2 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 - . 3 1 9 5 ( 2 6 2 . ) - . 1 226 ( 9 . 2 9 ) 0 . 2 0 1 0 ( 8 . 1 0 ) 0 . 2 7 3 4 ( 5 . 6 9 ) 0 . 0 0 2 3 ( 0 . 0 3 ) 6 9 . 9 1 8 9 . 1 3 6 0 . 8 61 2 - . 2 7 2 4 ( 3 1 8 . ) - . 1 2 3 8 ( 1 4 . 6 ) 0 . 1 5 6 4 ( 1 0 . 8 ) 0 . 2 4 8 1 ( 6 . 6 8 ) - . 1 3 1 1 ( 3 . 2 1 ) 6 4 . 9 2 2 0 . 4 3 9 3 . 9 97 3 - . 1 8 9 5 ( 3 0 0 . ) - . 0 7 9 5 ( 1 2 . 6 ) 0 . 1 3 5 3 ( 7 . 0 7 ) 0 . 3 6 7 9 ( 1 0 . 6 ) - . 1 0 3 2 ( 1 . 1 1 ) 7 5 . 4 4 1 5 . 4 6 6 6 . 1 1 1 2 4 - . 2 9 4 1 (221 . ) - . 1 4 2 6 ( 6 . 6 2 ) 0 . 1 2 5 8 ( 3 . 1 6 ) 0 . 2 0 3 4 ( 3 . 0 3 ) - . 2 2 9 5 ( 1 . 8 1 ) 7 8 . 0 2 4 2 . 2 4 4 6 . 2 46 5 - . 2 1 7 8 ( 2 7 0 . ) - . 1 0 9 0 ( 1 0 . 3 ) 0 . 1 3 4 3 ( 5 . 7 7 ) 0 . 2 6 1 1 ( 5 . 4 2 ) - . 2 0 9 1 ( 2 . 1 6 ) 8 0 . 7 3 7 6 . 2 6 2 5 . 0 83 6 - . 4 6 1 1 ( 3 6 4 . ) - . 0 9 7 8 ( 8 . 0 8 ) 0 . 3 9 3 5 ( 3 5 . 8 ) 0 . 2 9 6 1 ( 1 0 . 3 ) 0 . 3 1 0 4 ( 2 2 . 1 ) 1 1 2 . 4 2 3 2 . 8 5 5 9 . 0 100 7 - . 3 4 2 6 ( 2 4 4 . ) - . 1 4 4 2 ( 9 . 8 7 ) 0 . 2 3 3 8 ( 1 1 . 2 ) 0 . 2 2 6 2 ( 4 . 3 7 ) 0 . 0 4 3 1 ( 0 . 8 5 ) 9 4 . 9 3 3 0 . 1 651 . 4 34 8 - . 2 3 2 1 ( 5 1 9 . ) - . 0 9 3 7 ( 1 7 . 7 ) 0 . 0 9 7 6 ( 3 . 5 9 ) 0 . 3 4 1 7 ( 1 4 . 0 ) - . 3 5 6 6 ( 3 . 2 7 ) 9 9 . 2 5 9 4 . 1 1 0 0 7 . 0 94 9 - . 2 9 3 1 ( 4 7 3 . ) - . 1 5 5 2 ( 1 1 . 8 ) 0 . 1 5 6 8 ( 6 . 1 7 ) 0 . 1 7 3 9 ( 3 . 8 3 ) - . 1 424* ( 1 . 7 5 ) 9 6 . 6 431 . 2 7 9 2 . 2 93 1 0 - . 2 5 5 5 ( 5 5 5 . ) - . 1 2 0 5 ( 2 5 . 1 ) 0 . 1775 ( 1 5 . 9 ) 0 . 2 3 9 6 ( 1 2 . 7 ) - . 0 8 2 9 ( 2 . 2 9 ) 1 0 1 . 9 5 4 6 . 9 9 5 3 . 9 165 n o t e : [ 1 ] " t " v a l u e s i n b r a c k e t s [ 2 ] MQH i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s MQX i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s ME i s t h e mean e x p e n d i t u r e # i s t h e number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A 3 : 2 0 - 2 K I T C H E N E R : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e [ q u a r t i l e 0 2 ] 479 A1 + B11 * l n X H + B12 * l n X G SHARE = - 1 . + BM1 * l n X H + BM2 * l n X G T Y P E A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 - . 2 2 1 2 - . 0 8 2 7 0 . 1 1 6 0 0 . 3 8 4 6 - . 2 2 5 0 7 8 . 3 3 4 8 . 8 5 8 2 . 5 51 ( 2 3 2 . ) ( 1 2 . 4 ) ( 6 . 6 4 ) ( 1 0 . 3 ) ( 3 . 2 2 ) 2 - . 2 2 5 9 - . 0 9 7 0 0 . 1 2 2 1 0 . 3 4 6 5 - . 1 6 5 2 7 3 . 2 3 2 0 . 6 538.8 78 ( 3 2 5 . ) ( 1 1 . 9 ) ( 4 . 4 8 ) ( 1 0 . 2 ) ( 1 . 4 3 ) 3 - . 1 5 0 5 - . 0 7 8 2 0 . 1 1 4 1 0.3299 - . 1 3 1 1 80 . 2 5 8 6 . 7 8 9 7 . 3 120 ( 2 7 2 . ) ( 1 1 . 8 ) ( 7 . 7 8 ) ( 8 . 7 7 ) ( 1 . 6 2 ) 4 - . 2 3 6 9 - . 0 6 7 6 0 . 1 9 2 2 0.4989 0 . 0 2 1 7 8 5 . 7 3 6 0 . 1 6 1 4 . 6 61 ( 2 1 8 . ) ( 4 . 3 9 ) ( 4 . 8 4 ) ( 7 . 0 5 ) ( 0 . 1 5 ) 5 - . 1 7 7 1 - . 0 7 8 5 0 . 1 4 2 8 0 . 4 0 8 5 0 . 0 2 9 2 8 4 . 3 5 0 9 . 9 8 0 5 . 6 89 ( 2 8 7 . ) ( 7 . 0 1 ) ( 4 . 9 0 ) ( 6 . 8 9 ) ( 0 . 1 8 ) 6 -.3299 - . 1 2 4 5 0 . 2 9 3 8 0 . 2 6 7 8 0 . 2 2 1 1 1 1 9 . 1 428.0 8 2 5 . 5 68 ( 2 0 8 . ) ( 7 . 0 3 ) ( 1 4 . 2 ) ( 4 . 4 2 ) ( 4 . 0 7 ) 7 - . 3 0 9 6 - . 0 9 7 8 0 . 2 5 4 7 0 . 3 8 3 9 0 . 1 9 1 8 1 1 6 . 7 4 7 0 . 7 8 8 6 . 5 31 ( 2 3 2 . ) ( 5 . 2 7 ) ( 6 . 9 4 ) ( 5 . 0 6 ) ( 1 . 9 9 ) 8 - . 2 1 2 5 - . 1 0 7 5 0 . 0 9 6 6 0 . 2 1 7 5 - . 3 5 4 8 1 1 4 . 9 7 7 3 . 9 1 2 7 6 . 5 83 ( 3 3 6 . ) ( 1 7 . 8 ) ( 3 . 8 2 ) ( 8 . 4 4 ) ( 3 . 2 2 ) 9 - . 2 8 0 8 - . 1 0 2 6 0 . 2 3 7 1 0 . 3 3 4 3 0 . 1 3 6 3 1 1 7 . 5 5 5 5 . 9 1 0 0 4 . 5 58 ( 3 3 3 . ) ( 7 . 7 7 ) ( 1 1 . 9 ) ( 6 . 8 1 ) ( 2 . 2 9 ) 10 - . 2 2 5 9 - . 0 9 4 2 0 . 1 9 3 4 0 . 3 3 0 9 0 . 0 6 0 4 1 1 2 . 7 7 1 5 . 2 1 1 9 9 . 6 133 ( 6 2 7 . ) ( 2 6 . 1 ) ( 2 3 . 0 ) ( 2 0 . 7 ) ( 2 . 1 1 ) n o t e : [.1 ] " t " v a l u e s i n b r a c k e t s [ 2 ] MQH i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s MQX i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s ME i s t h e mean e x p e n d i t u r e # i s t h e number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A 3 : 2 1 - 2 K I T C H E N E R : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e [ q u a r t i l e 0 3 ] A1 + B11 * l n X H + B12 * l n X G SHARE = - 1 . + BM1 * l n X H + BM2 * l n X G T Y P E A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 - . 1 2 9 2 - . 0 6 8 3 0 . 0 6 6 1 0 . 3 2 8 1 - . 3 2 9 0 8 7 . 8 7 5 8 . 5 1 1 3 1 . 5 24 ( 1 9 6 . ) ( 1 9 . 9 ) ( 1 0 . 7 ) ( 1 4 . 8 ) ( 8 . 7 0 ) 2 - . 1 8 1 7 - . 1 0 4 2 0 . 0 7 5 4 0 . 2 4 1 0 - . 3 6 4 6 8 4 . 9 4 9 3 . 7 7 8 4 . 0 52 ( 1 7 9 . ) ( 1 0 . 5 ) ( 6 . 2 0 ) ( 4 . 0 0 ) ( 5 . 4 5 ) 3 - . 1 1 7 2 - . 0 6 1 5 0 . 0 7 2 0 0 . 3 6 1 0 - . 2 3 6 3 8 7 . 2 8 5 1 . 0 1 2 5 2 . 8 77 ( 2 6 9 . ) ( 1 0 . 3 ) ( 8 . 4 2 ) ( 8 . 0 8 ) ( 3 . 3 6 ) 4 - . 1 8 4 2 - . 0 9 3 4 0 . 0 9 7 6 0 . 3 4 8 3 - . 2 6 1 2 9 6 . 1 5 6 3 . 0 8 9 7 . 2 27 ( 1 7 1 . ) ( 4 . 6 2 ) ( 5 . 4 8 ) ( 3 . 4 9 ) ( 2 . 8 7 ) 5 - . 1 3 3 6 - . 0 7 4 0 0 . 0 6 7 1 0 . 3 1 9 8 - . 3 6 8 9 8 9 . 5 7 6 2 . 9 1 1 4 4 . 5 44 ( 1 5 7 . ) ( 7 . 8 3 ) ( 6 . 6 8 ) ( 5 . 0 5 ) ( 4 . 7 8 ) 6 - . 2 6 0 7 - . 1 4 1 7 0 . 0 9 5 4 0 . 1 5 4 7 - . 3 1 4 8 1 5 4 . 7 7 7 1 . 4 1 3 5 3 . 9 45 ( 2 1 7 . ) ( 2 3 . 4 ) ( 1 1 . 1 ) ( 8 . 6 9 ) ( 1 0 . 4 ) 7 - . 2 5 7 6 - . 1 1 8 5 0 . 1 8 5 2 0 . 2 4 4 2 0 . 0 0 8 7 1 3 3 . 6 7 0 7 . 8 1 2 3 5 . 7 18 ( 2 3 2 . ) ( 1 5 . 2 ) ( 1 5 . 6 ) ( 6 . 2 7 ) ( 0 . 2 5 ) 8 - . 1 7 1 5 - . 0 8 2 3 0 . 0 8 2 5 0 . 3 2 6 6 - . 3 1 2 3 1 3 4 . 9 1 1 8 4 . 5 1 8 5 8 . 7 37 ( 2 4 1 . ) ( 1 7 . 5 ) ( 1 0 . 5 ) ( 1 5 . 3 ) ( 7 . 9 6 ) 9 - . 2 4 4 6 - . 1 1 8 7 0 . 1 1 8 2 0 . 2 3 1 3 - . 2 3 8 9 1 5 1 . 2 8 6 4 . 2 1 4 8 6 . 1 37 ( 2 8 7 . ) ( 1 1 . 6 ) ( 1 2 . 1 ) ( 4 . 7 6 ) ( 5 . 1 0 ) 10 - . 2 1 3 6 - . 1 0 6 4 0 . 1 0 6 1 0 . 2 6 0 2 - . 2 5 5 8 1 5 5 . 6 1 0 5 8 . 7 1 7 4 8 . 8 59 ( 3 2 7 . ) ( 3 0 . 0 ) ( 1 4 . 3 ) ( 1 6 . 3 ) ( 9 . 8 4 ) n o t e : [ 1 ] " t " v a l u e s i n b r a c k e t s [ 2 ] MQH i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f " h o u s i n g " s e r v i c e s MQX i s t h e mean q u a n t i t y o f o t h e r g o o d s a n d s e r v i c e s ME i s t h e mean e x p e n d i t u r e # i s t h e number o f o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A 3 : 2 2 - 2 K I T C H E N E R : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e S h a r e [ q u a r t i l e 0 4 ] 481 i n c o m e e l a s t i c i t y mean b e l o w a b o v e T Y P E 1 Q01 0 . 7 1 5 1 0 . 7 2 1 2 0 . 7 6 0 8 Q02 0 . 5 5 4 0 0 . 5 9 6 6 0 . 6 1 2 8 Q03 0 . 4 5 1 5 0 . 4 8 6 4 0 . 4 8 9 3 Q04 0 . 2 8 7 5 0 . 2 8 9 8 0 . 2 9 0 8 T Y P E 2 Q01 0 . 6 5 7 0 0 . 6 5 8 9 0 . 6 6 1 0 Q02 0 . 5 1 1 4 0 . 5 2 2 8 0 . 5 2 1 9 Q03 0 . 4 5 5 4 0 . 4 8 2 1 0 . 4 9 6 0 Q04 0 . 3 8 7 4 0 . 3 7 3 0 0 . 3 7 1 5 T Y P E 3 Q01 0 . 5 5 4 2 0 . 5 5 4 2 0 . 5 5 4 2 Q02 0 . 3 9 5 8 0 . 4 1 9 6 0 . 4 2 2 4 Q03 0 . 3 2 1 6 0 . 3 3 6 9 0 . 3 3 8 6 Q04 0 . 2 5 8 1 0 . 2 7 4 3 0 . 2 8 0 3 T Y P E 4 Q01 0 . 6 6 9 4 0 . 6 8 9 2 0 . 6 8 8 4 Q02 0 . 5 4 2 3 0 . 5 4 3 5 0 . 5 4 3 5 Q03 0 . 4 9 6 8 0 . 6 1 6 7 0 . 5 8 0 3 Q04 0 . 3 9 3 2 0 . 4 1 7 8 0 . 4 2 4 6 T Y P E 5 Q01 0 . 5 7 5 1 0 . 5 8 8 7 0 . 5 9 3 4 Q02 0 . 4 3 8 6 0 . 4 3 7 9 0 . 4 3 7 6 Q03 0 . 3736 0 . 4 2 2 6 0 . 4 3 5 0 Q04 0 . 3 0 7 5 0 . 3 0 1 6 0 . 3 0 0 9 T Y P E 6 Q01 0 .81 68 0 . 8 2 3 7 0 . 8 3 7 4 Q02 0 . 7 2 1 7 0 . 7 8 3 8 • 0 . 7 9 5 7 Q03 0 . 5 4 9 3 0 . 6 0 9 7 0 . 6 3 0 4 Q04 0 . 5 0 3 5 0 . 4 7 6 8 0 . 4 6 1 1 T Y P E 7 Q01 0 . 6 7 7 0 0 . 6 8 1 7 0 . 6 8 4 2 Q02 0 . 6 0 3 7 0 . 6 2 7 1 0 . 6 2 1 1 Q03 0 . 5 5 9 2 0 . 6 4 9 7 0 . 6 6 4 0 Q04 0 . 4 5 8 9 0 . 4 8 7 6 0 . 5 0 7 2 T Y P E 8 Q01 0 . 5 5 7 9 0 . 5 5 8 4 0 . 5 5 8 7 Q02 0 . 4 9 2 5 0 . 4 9 0 1 0 . 4 8 7 5 Q03 0 . 4 2 2 7 0 . 4 0 6 6 0 . 4 0 2 3 Q04 0 . 3 6 8 3 0 . 3 7 1 6 0 . 3 7 3 8 T Y P E 9 Q01 0 . 5 9 3 9 0 . 6 0 1 2 0 . 6 1 0 2 Q02 0 . 5 3 4 5 0 . 5 3 7 4 0 . 5 3 9 4 Q03 0 . 521 5 0 . 5 6 9 8 0 . 5 7 3 2 Q04 0 . 4 7 0 5 0 . 4 6 8 4 0 . 4 6 7 8 T Y P E 10 Q01 0 . 5 3 9 3 0 . 5 4 5 1 0 . 5 4 8 0 Q02 0 . 4 8 5 3 0 . 4 8 9 6 0 . 4 9 0 7 Q03 0 . 4 4 3 7 0 . 4 7 4 4 0 . 4 7 4 5 Q04 0 . 4 2 6 6 0 . 4 2 7 9 0 . 4 2 8 9 p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y mean b e l o w a b o v e 0 . 9 9 1 2 0 . 9 9 1 7 0 . 9 9 7 6 0 . 9 9 8 9 -1 . 8 8 6 8 -1 . 1 8 2 0 - 1 . 2 1 8 8 - 1 . 3 7 7 2 - 0 . 6 6 0 8 - 0 . 8 1 3 9 - 0 . 8 2 4 0 - 0 . 7 2 5 4 1 .0500 0 . 9 9 9 4 0 . 9 8 3 0 0 . 9 9 3 6 - 1 . 9 8 5 6 - 1 . 1 1 2 5 - 1 . 1 3 4 5 - 1 . 1 5 8 0 - 0 . 7 2 8 4 - 0 . 8 9 5 8 - 0 . 8 5 6 8 - 0 . 7 7 5 3 1 .0363 1 .0060 1 .0068 0 . 9 9 6 9 - 1 . 9 2 2 7 - 1 . 1 2 9 9 -1 . 1037 - 1 . 1 4 3 9 - 0 . 7 4 3 7 - 0 . 8 9 6 8 - 0 . 9 0 9 0 - 0 . 7 6 1 4 1 .0359 0 . 9 9 1 2 0 . 9 9 7 8 0 . 9 8 7 5 - 1 . 5 2 7 6 - 1 . 1 2 8 4 - 1 . 0 5 0 3 - 1 . 2 1 6 1 - 0 . 8 4 6 8 - 0 . 8 8 1 5 - 0 . 9 4 9 5 - 0 . 8 1 0 7 1 . 0 1 2 9 1 .0145 0 . 9 8 6 1 0 . 9 9 9 5 - 1 . 5 2 2 7 - 1 . 1 3 3 6 - 1 . 0 7 4 9 - 1 . 1 8 9 1 - 0 . 7 8 4 3 - 0 . 9 0 7 4 - 0 . 9 0 0 0 - 0 . 7 9 1 1 1 . 0 2 1 3 1 . 0 1 7 3 1 .0098 0 . 9 9 6 2 - 1 . 6 0 0 2 - 1 . 2 2 1 4 - 1 . 1 9 7 0 - 1 . 2 8 9 7 - 0 . 7 4 7 6 - 0 . 8 6 8 4 - 0 . 8 2 3 7 - 0 . 5 6 1 3 1 .0452 0 . 9 9 7 8 0 . 9 7 9 3 1 .0044 - 1 . 4 3 5 9 • - 1 . 0 8 0 1 - 1 . 0 6 0 3 - 1 . 1 9 8 5 - 0 . 8 7 0 1 - 0 . 8 9 5 4 - 0 . 8 9 4 3 - 0 . 7 3 7 1 0 . 9 9 1 6 1 .0060 1 .0219 0 . 9 9 7 3 - 1 . 3 4 7 6 - 1 . 1 2 2 8 - 1 . 1 2 2 0 - 1 . 2 4 4 3 - 0 . 7 9 3 8 - 0 . 9 0 3 7 - 0 . 9 1 5 5 - 0 . 6 7 5 8 1 . 0 2 2 0 0 . 9 9 2 7 1 . 0 0 3 2 1 . 0 0 2 5 - 1 . 5 4 5 4 - 1 . 1 1 6 8 - 1 . 0 7 2 3 -1 . 2 0 2 5 - 0 . 8 1 2 6 - 0 . 8 9 0 9 - 0 . 8 9 9 4 - 0 . 6 3 7 9 1 . 0 3 2 3 1 . 0 1 8 2 1 .0123 0 . 9 9 9 3 - 1 . 3 7 6 5 - 1 . 1 1 4 6 - 1 . 0 9 1 3 - 1 . 2 7 8 8 - 0 . 8 9 3 1 - 0 . 9 3 8 8 - 0 . 9 4 0 8 - 0 . 6 6 8 4 F i g u r e A 3 : 2 3 - 2 K I T C H E N E R : I n c o m e a n d P r i c e E l a s t i c i t i e s 482 A L L BELOW ABOVE Q01 Q02 Q03 Q04 T Y P E 1 n o r m a l BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 4 4 4 . 6 7 4 1 6 . 3 4 5 6 . 6 5 3 1 3 . 4 6 2 8 5 . 7 6 5 5 . 4 1 2 9 3 . 7 8 2 1 3 . 9 3 1 5 9 . 6 9 163 133 61 99 31 37 2 0 7 . 9 3 1 6 8 . 7 9 7 8 . 2 9 193.83 148.84 89.98 1 0 9 . 6 0 7 9 . 1 9 6 0 . 8 3 T Y P E 2 n o r m a l BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 6 7 4 . 5 1 6 4 4 . 2 5 6 0 . 5 1 4 1 9 . 5 0 3 3 6 . 1 7 1 6 6 . 6 5 4 8 4 . 8 6 3 8 7 . 9 8 1 9 3 . 7 6 1 9 3 . 4 5 1 3 0 . 3 7 1 2 6 . 1 6 3 3 8 . 6 9 2 7 7 . 0 8 1 2 3 . 2 3 2 9 9 . 3 5 2 3 4 . 2 2 1 3 0 . 2 6 1 9 0 . 19 1 5 9 . 0 5 6 2 . 2 9 T Y P E 3 n o r m a l BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 1 1 5 8 . 3 4 9 6 2 . 0 7 3 9 2 . 5 3 5 9 2 . 8 2 5 2 8 . 9 2 1 2 7 . 8 0 7 6 7 . 2 8 6 5 7 . 6 8 2 1 9 . 2 0 2 6 3 . 3 7 2 5 9 . 4 1 7 . 9 3 4 1 8 . 4 4 3 4 5 . 1 5 1 4 6 . 5 9 4 5 5 . 1 5 3 9 9 . 5 5 1 1 1 . 2 0 3 2 7 . 0 1 2 8 2 . 3 7 8 9 . 2 7 T Y P E 4 n o r m a l BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 5 1 9 . 5 8 4 7 0 . 2 0 9 8 . 7 5 291 271 38 03 62 81 3 1 5 . 3 0 2 5 0 . 1 9 1 3 0 . 2 2 1 6 2 . 0 9 1 2 8 . 7 4 6 6 . 7 1 161 151 21 88 36 02 2 1 4 . 2 0 1 7 1 . 0 4 8 6 . 3 1 1 0 6 . 8 6 9 3 . 6 8 2 6 . 3 4 T Y P E 5 n o r m a l BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 8 3 2 . 2 3 7 0 6 . 4 8 2 5 1 . 5 1 4 5 9 . 2 7 4 1 6 . 4 6 8 5 . 6 2 5 1 3 . 8 5 4 3 6 . 0 0 1 5 5 . 7 0 1 8 5 . 8 0 1 7 9 . 1 2 1 3 . 3 4 3 0 5 . 5 8 2 7 5 . 2 9 6 0 . 5 9 3 4 3 . 5 3 3 0 1 . 9 7 8 3 . 1 2 1 7 5 . 4 1 1 4 8 . 0 6 5 4 . 6 9 T Y P E 6 n o r m a l BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 6 4 7 . 4 5 5 8 6 . 8 9 1 2 1 . 1 2 4 6 5 . 7 2 3 4 6 . 0 4 2 3 9 . 3 6 3 0 9 . 4 9 2 9 0 . 7 6 3 7 . 4 5 2 5 4 . 4 5 1 9 7 . 0 3 1 1 4 . 8 3 3 0 9 . 1 0 2 0 1 . 9 9 2 1 4 . 2 2 2 0 6 . 7 2 1 9 8 . 1 0 1 7 . 2 3 1 6 3 . 2 1 1 1 3 . 8 3 9 8 . 7 6 T Y P E 7 n o r m a l BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 3 2 1 . 0 1 2 9 0 . 9 6 6 0 . 1 1 1 9 1 . 0 6 1 7 8 . 4 4 2 5 . 2 3 1 7 2 . 19 1 2 7 . 8 6 8 8 . 6 6 8 9 . 4 4 7 7 . 5 4 2 3 . 8 0 1 2 2 . 7 9 1 1 0 . 3 4 2 4 . 8 9 1 1 4 . 2 3 8 8 . 2 1 5 2 . 0 5 7 5 . 6 3 5 0 . 2 2 5 0 . 8 2 T Y P E 8 n o r m a l BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 1 0 0 7 . 6 7 7 2 4 . 9 1 5 6 5 . 5 3 5 4 9 . 2 4 4 0 8 . 5 7 2 8 1 . 3 4 4 7 4 . 4 0 3 6 9 . 9 5 2 0 8 . 9 1 1 9 9 . 0 1 1 5 8 . 9 6 8 0 . 0 9 3 9 1 . 4 6 2 7 9 . 2 2 2 2 4 . 4 7 3 3 0 . 0 2 2 5 9 . 1 7 1 4 1 . 6 9 1 5 9 . 8 3 1 1 7 . 2 5 8 5 . 1 6 T Y P E 9 n o r m a l BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 771 . 18 7 3 9 . 9 1 6 2 . 5 3 5 0 1 . 5 7 4 7 2 . 8 7 5 7 . 3 9 3 4 5 . 7 5 2 8 0 . 7 9 1 2 9 . 9 0 1 7 8 . 5 8 1 6 2 . 3 8 3 2 . 4 0 3 6 0 . 7 1 3 3 1 . 1 1 5 9 . 2 0 2 1 8 . 1 2 1 8 0 . 6 5 7 4 . 9 5 1 4 9 . 5 2 1 1 5 . 1 4 6 8 . 7 6 T Y P E 10 n o r m a l BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 1 6 5 7 . 8 3 1 3 9 4 . 4 0 5 2 6 . 8 5 1 0 4 6 . 1 1 9 0 9 . 3 8 2 7 3 . 4 6 7 6 0 . 1 0 5 5 4 . 3 9 4 1 1 . 4 1 458 41 1 93 87 90 95 6 3 4 . 9 6 5 2 6 . 0 5 2 1 7 . 8 4 553 401 304 59 28 62 2 4 5 . 2 9 1 7 4 . 7 3 1 4 1 . 1 3 F i g u r e A 3 : 2 4 - 2 K I T C H E N E R L o g L i k e l i h o o d V a l u e s : [ t e s t o f u n i t y i n c o m e e l a s t i c i t y ] 0000 Demand C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 " M O D E L " M O D I F I E D HOUSEHOLDS 10 1 1601 1 - 2 3 0 1 7 1051 4826 7 1800 384 10 2 3061 1 753 157 1052 7017 7 3975 802 10 3 4737 1 2499 476 1053 9043 7 6350 1 488 10 4 9376 1 7807 2149 105410954 7 7348 1 804 10 5 1 1 43 2 - 9 9 35 1 0 5 5 1 4 9 0 4 7 1 4 2 0 5 4900 10 6 2722 2 1607 298 1056 6568 8 3047 595 1.0 7 3764 2 2674 484 1057 9322 8 6164 1 296 10 8 4458 2 3496 660 1 0 5 8 1 0 7 2 8 8 8030 1802 10 9 501 1 2 4388 889 1 0 5 9 1 1 3 7 5 8 8564 1950 1010 5582 2 4559 941 1 0 6 0 1 2 0 7 0 8 9534 2163 1011 651 1 2 5984 1350 1 0 6 1 1 2 7 9 9 8 1 0 0 2 9 2218 1012 7502 2 7134 1725 1 0 6 2 1 3 5 6 8 8 1 1 2 4 0 2653 1013 9899 21 0474 31 1 4 1 0 6 3 1 4 3 8 7 8 1 2 4 3 2 3049 1014 2822 3 576 162 1 0 6 4 1 5 4 1 8 8 1 3 0 0 5 3245 1015 5064 3 3096 562 1 0 6 5 1 6 5 7 5 8 1 4 1 6 2 3742 1016 61 60 3 4350 828 1 0 6 6 1 8 8 6 7 8 1 7 2 1 2 4907 1017 7094 3 5471 1090 1 0 6 7 2 7 1 6 0 8 3 0 2 3 9 1 1 5 5 0 1018 8068 3 6588 1321 1068 3730 9 308 190 1019 8 8 7 6 3 7666 1611 1069 7 3 2 5 9 3642 713 1020 9620 3 8439 1798 1070 8 4 6 5 9 4923 1038 1 0 2 1 1 0 3 3 0 3 9497 21 1 7 1071 8 9 9 6 9 5245 1 140 1 0 2 2 1 1 2 6 9 31 0470 2372 1072 9716 9 5883 1 323 1 0 2 3 1 2 2 9 9 31 1827 2770 1 0 7 3 1 0 3 2 5 9 6719 1 583 1 0 2 4 1 3 5 3 8 31 3444 3361 1 0 7 4 1 1 1 7 7 9 7646 1903 1 0 2 5 1 7 0 5 5 31 8660 5558 107511961 9 8818 2318 1 026 972 4 - 3 0 3 43 1 0 7 6 1 3 2 4 3 9 1 0 2 8 8 2950 1 027 3399 4 1614 293 1 0 7 7 1 5 5 2 9 913261 4330 1 028 5025 4 2808 521 1 0 7 8 2 3 2 4 8 9 2 7 6 9 2 1 3 2 6 9 1029 6 5 6 5 4 4079 813 1079 5 7 6 5 10 2003 498 1030 7610 4 5428 1 189 1 080 8211 10 4263 923 10311 0560 4 9390 2681 1081 8871 10 5323 1 1 40 1 032 3243 5 475 1 93 1082 9455 10 5951 1 366 1 033 5628 5 2486 536 1083 9837 10 6395 1411 1 034 6593 5 3829 777 108410291 10 6445 1 472 1 035 7448 5 51 27 1065 1 0 8 5 1 0 6 0 8 10 6948 1 494 1 036 8 3 0 5 5 6274 1281 1 0 8 6 1 0 9 6 8 10 7811 1 787 1037 9051 5 6921 1467 1 0 8 7 1 1 3 4 2 10 7971 1799 1038 9876 5 7986 1756 1 0 8 8 1 1 7 0 4 10 7492 1686 1 0 3 9 1 0 9 2 8 5 9413 2181 1 0 8 9 1 2 0 2 6 10 7787 1 753 1 0 4 0 1 4 0 2 9 51 2757 3389 1 0 9 0 1 2 2 9 9 10 9081 2098 1041 2791 6 - 5 0 2 0 1 0 9 1 1 2 8 4 4 10 8731 2058 1 042 3565 6 - 2 9 5 22 1 0 9 2 1 3 3 5 4 1010248 2489 1043 4252 6 367 124 1 0 9 3 1 3 7 3 6 1010438 2543 1044 5042 6 - 3 7 74 109414251 1011149 2927 1045 5891 6 530 1 1 1 1 0 9 5 1 4 6 8 3 1011393 2744 1046 6772 6 1 777 339 1 0 9 6 1 5 4 4 9 1011918 2952 1047 7554 6 2054 409 1 0 9 7 1 6 1 6 2 1012992 3357 1 048 8832 6 3519 735 1 0 9 8 1 7 4 1 2 1014423 4005 1 0 4 9 1 1 7 8 4 6 6564 1 559 109919541 1017182 5254 105016841 61 2563 3954 11 0 2 7 6 5 5 1 0 2 8 4 4 3 1 0 4 3 0 F i g u r e A 3 : 2 5 - 2 K I T C H E N E R : Demand C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 0000 Demand C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 Mean A F T E R TAX INCOME by H o u s e h o l d T Y P E 20 1 1 7 9 . 0 3 6 0 . 8 5 8 2 . 5 1 1 3 2 20 2 2 3 4 . 4 3 9 3 . 9 5 3 8 . 8 7 8 4 . 0 20 3 3 8 3 . 3 6 6 6 . 1 8 9 7 . 3 1 2 5 3 . 20 4 2 6 5 . 6 4 4 6 . 2 6 1 4 . 6 8 9 7 . 2 20 5 4 1 1 . 7 6 2 5 . 0 8 0 5 . 6 1 1 4 5 . 20 6 3 3 7 . 6 5 5 9 . 0 8 2 5 . 5 1 3 5 4 20 7 4 5 7 . 6 6 5 1 . 4 8 8 6 . 5 1 2 3 6 20 8 6 9 3 . 2 1 0 0 7 . 1 2 7 7 . 1 8 5 9 20 9 5 5 5 . 3 7 9 2 . 2 1 0 0 5 . 1 4 8 6 2 0 1 0 7 1 2 . 0 9 5 3 . 9 1 2 0 0 . 1 7 4 9 0000 Demand PARAMETERS by T Y P E 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 01) 21 1 0 - . 4 7 5 - . 1 6 7 . 2 7 9 6 . 1 4 0 7 . 1 2 1 2 5 1 . 7 6 7 2 . 4 9 1 7 9 . 0 1 . 6 4 3 21 2 o - . 4 4 6 - . 1 8 3 . 3 3 0 9 . 051 5 . 1 8 7 7 6 1 . 3 6 1 0 2 . 6 2 3 4 . 4 1 . 6 4 9 21 3 o - . 3 3 2 - . 1 5 7 . 2 3 0 3 . 1 2 4 4 . 0 0 8 3 7 4 . 8 2 1 9 9 . 1 3 8 3 . 3 1 . 6 6 3 21 4 o - . 4 0 9 - . 1 1 0 . 2 8 4 6 . 2 5 1 8 . 1 0 7 8 6 4 . 9 9 1 2 1 . 6 2 6 5 . 6 1 . 6 6 5 21 5 0 - . 3 2 1 - . 1 3 7 . 221 9 . 2 3 1 8 . 0 0 1 7 7 7 . 0 9 2 1 6 . 2 4 1 1 . 7 1 . 6 9 3 21 6 0 - . 5 9 0 - . 1 3 4 . 3 7 9 4 . 1 3 1 7 . 2 4 6 3 8 7 . 8 8 1 0 6 . 9 3 3 7 . 6 2 . 2 5 9 21 7 0 - . 4 3 4 - . 1 6 0 . 3 2 6 3 . 1 3 5 4 . 1 5 4 2 8 5 . 2 5 2 0 0 . 8 4 5 7 . 6 2 . 3 0 8 21 8 0 - . 3 0 9 - . 1 4 7 . 1 3 6 2 . 1 9 0 0 - . 2 0 4 9 1 . 7 8 3 6 8 . 0 6 9 3 . 2 2 . 3 3 6 21 9 o - . 3 4 4 - . 1 4 0 . 2 4 2 8 . 2081 . 0 3 5 7 7 9 . 1 4 2 8 1 . 8 5 5 5 . 3 2 . 3 8 7 2110 o - . 2 9 8 - . 1 2 2 . 2 2 3 7 . 2 3 8 9 . 0 0 8 8 8 8 . 2 9 3 8 6 . 0 7 1 2 . 0 2 . 3 8 0 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 02) 22 1 o - . 3 1 9 - . 1 2 3 . 2 0 1 0 . 2 7 3 4 . 0 0 2 3 6 9 . 9 5 1 8 9 . 1 3 6 0 . 8 1 . 6 4 3 22 2 0 - . 2 7 2 - . 1 2 4 . 1 5 6 4 . 2 4 8 1 - . 1 3 1 6 4 . 8 8 2 2 0 . 4 3 9 3 . 9 1 . 6 5 3 22 3 0 - . 1 9 0 - . 0 8 0 . 1 3 5 3 . 3 6 7 9 - . 1 0 3 7 5 . 4 0 4 1 5 . 4 6 6 6 . 1 1 . 6 7 3 22 4 o - . 2 9 4 - . 1 4 3 . 1 2 5 8 . 2 0 3 4 - . 2 2 9 7 7 . 9 6 2 4 2 . 2 4 4 6 . 2 1 . 6 8 6 22 5 o - . 2 1 8 - . 1 0 9 . 1 3 4 3 . 261 1- . 2 0 9 8 0 . 6 6 3 7 6 . 2 6 2 5 . 0 1 . 6 8 3 22 6 0 - . 4 6 1 - . 0 9 8 . 3 9 3 5 . 2961 . 3 1 0 4 1 1 2 . 4 2 3 2 . 8 5 5 9 . 0 2 . 2 8 2 22 7 o - . 3 4 3 - . 1 4 4 . 2 3 3 8 . 2 2 6 2 . 0 4 3 1 9 4 . 9 0 3 3 0 . 1 6 5 1 . 4 2 . 3 4 0 22 8 0 - . 2 3 2 - . 0 9 4 . 0 9 7 6 . 341 7 - . 3 5 7 9 9 . 2 1 5 9 4 . 1 1 0 0 7 . 2 . 3 6 4 22 9 o - . 2 9 3 - . 1 5 5 . 1 5 6 8 . 1 7 3 9 - . 1 4 2 9 6 . 5 9 4 3 1 . 2 7 9 2 . 2 2 . 3 9 7 2210 0 - . 2 5 5 - . 121 . 1 7 7 5 . 2 3 9 6 - . 0 8 3 1 0 1 . 9 5 4 6 . 9 9 5 3 . 9 2 . 3 8 3 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 03) 23 1 o - . 2 2 1 - . 0 8 3 . 1 1 6 0 . 3 8 4 6 - . 2 2 5 7 8 . 2 5 3 4 8 . 8 5 8 2 . 5 1 . 6 5 0 23 2 0 - . 2 2 6 - . 0 9 7 . 1 221 . 3 4 6 5 - . 1 6 5 7 3 . 1 8 3 2 0 . 6 5 3 8 . 8 1 . 6 6 4 23 3 0 - . 1 5 0 -. 0 7 8 . 1 1 4 1 . 3 2 9 9 - . 1 3 1 8 0 . 1 8 5 8 6 . 7 8 9 7 . 3 1 . 6 7 6 23 4 o - . 2 3 7 - . 0 6 8 . 1 9 2 2 . 4 9 8 9 . 0 2 1 7 8 5 . 7 4 3 6 0 . 1 6 1 4 . 6 1 . 7 0 3 23 5 0 - . 1 7 7 - . 0 7 8 . 1 4 2 8 . 4 0 8 5 . 0 2 9 2 8 4 . 3 2 5 0 9 . 9 8 0 5 . 6 1 . 6 8 8 23 6 0 - . 3 3 0 - . 1 2 5 . 2 9 3 8 . 2 6 7 8 . 2 2 1 1 1 1 9 . 1 4 2 8 . 0 8 2 5 . 5 2 . 2 5 6 23 7 o - . 3 1 0 - . 0 9 8 . 2 5 4 7 . 3 8 3 9 . 1 9 1 8 1 1 6 . 7 4 7 0 . 7 8 8 6 . 5 2 .351 23 8 o - . 2 1 2 - . 1 0 7 . 0 9 6 6 . 2 1 7 5 - . 3 5 5 1 1 4 . 9 7 7 3 . 9 1 2 7 7 . 2 . 3 5 8 23 9 o - . 2 8 1 - . 1 0 3 . 2371 . 3 3 4 3 . 1 3 6 3 1 1 7 . 5 5 5 5 . 9 1 0 0 5 . 2 . 3 9 9 2310 0 - . 2 2 6 - . 0 9 4 . 1 9 3 4 . 3 3 0 9 . 0 6 0 4 1 1 2 . 7 7 1 5 . 2 1 2 0 0 . 2 . 3 9 4 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 04) 24 1 0 - . 1 2 9 -. 0 6 8 . 0661 . 3 2 8 1 - . 3 2 9 8 7 . 7 8 7 5 8 . 5 1 1 3 2 . 1 . 6 5 2 24 2 o - . 1 8 2 - . 1 0 4 . 0 7 5 4 . 241 0 - . 3 6 5 8 4 . 9 5 4 9 3 . 7 7 8 4 . 0 1 . 6 6 9 24 3 o - . 1 1 7 - .061 . 0 7 2 0 . 361 0 - . 2 3 6 8 7 . 1 8 8 5 1 . 0 1 2 5 3 . 1 . 6 7 8 24 4 o - . 1 8 4 - . 0 9 3 . 0 9 7 6 . 3 4 8 3 - . 2 6 1 9 6 . 1 4 5 6 3 . 0 8 9 7 . 2 1 . 7 1 2 24 5 0 - . 1 3 4 -. 0 7 4 . 0671 . 31 9 8 - . 3 6 9 8 9 . 4 8 7 6 2 . 9 1 1 4 5 . 1 . 7 0 3 24 6 o - . 2 6 1 - . 1 4 2 . 0 9 5 4 . 1 5 4 7 - . 3 1 5 1 5 4 . 7 7 7 1 . 4 1 3 5 4 . 2 . 2 6 6 24 7 o - . 2 5 8 - . 1 1 9 . 1 8 5 2 . 2 4 4 2 . 0 0 8 7 1 3 3 . 6 7 0 7 . 8 1 2 3 6 . 2 .361 24 8 o - . 1 7 1 - . 0 8 2 . 0 8 2 5 . 3 2 6 6 - . 3 1 2 1 3 4 . 9 1 1 8 5 . 1 8 5 9 . 2 . 3 6 2 24 9 o - . 2 4 5 - . 1 1 9 . 1 1 8 2 . 2 3 1 3 - . 2 3 9 1 5 1 . 2 8 6 4 . 2 1 4 8 6 . 2 . 3 9 9 241 0 o - . 2 1 4 - . 1 0 6 . 1 061 . 2 6 0 2 - . 2 5 6 1 5 5 . 6 1 0 5 9 . 1 7 4 9 . 2 . 3 9 2 F i g u r e A 3 : 2 5 - 2 ( c o n t ) K I T C H E N E R : Demand C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 485 0000 Demand C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 " M O D E L " DWELLINGS 30 1 48 1 1 3035 104 4 1 3069 141 2 2 30 2 61 1 1 3036 107 4 1 3070 159 2 2 30 3 68 1 1 3037 1 1 1 4 1 3071 208 2 2 30 4 74 1 1 3038 119 4 1 3072 81 3 2 30 5 79 1 1 3039 141 4 1 3073 93 3 2 30 6 85 1 1 3040 102 5 1 3074 101 3 2 30 7 90 1 1 3041 51 1 2 3075 107 3 2 30 8 95 1 1 3042 67 1 2 3076 1 1 3 3 2 30 9 99 1 1 3043 76 1 2 3077 1 22 3 2 3010 1 06 1 1 3044 81 1 2 3078 1 53 3 2 301 1 1 1 6 1 1 3045 84 1 2 3079 49 4 2 301 2 1 34 1 1 3046 87 1 2 3080 64 4 2 301 3 52 2 1 3047 91 1 2 3081 69 4 2 3014 71 2 1 3048 94 1 2 3082 75 4 2 301 5 79 2 1 3049 99 1 2 3083 80 4 2 301 6 85 2 1 3050 1 05 1 2 3084 83 4 2 301 7 89 2 1 3051 1 1 2 1 2 3085 86 4 2 3018 93 2 1 3052 141 1 2 3086 89 4 2 3019 96 2 1 3053 62 2 2 3087 92 4 2 3020 100 2 1 3054 80 2 2 3088 95 4 2 3021 104 2 1 3055 85 2 2 3089 98 4 2 3022 108 2 1 3056 89 2 2 3090 102 4 2 3023 1 1 4 2 1 3057 93 2 2 3091 1 06 4 2 3024 1 28 2 1 3058 97 2 2 3092 1 1 1 4 2 3025 81 3 1 3059 100 2 2 3093 1 15 4 2 3026 1 15 3 1 3060 103 2 2 3094 123 4 2 3027 40 4 1 3061 1 05 2 2 3095 135 4 2 3028 62 4 1 3062 1 08 2 2 3096 179 4 2 3029 71 4 1 3063 1 1 1 2 2 3097 63 5 2 3030 78 4 1 3064 1 13 2 2 3098 93 5 2 3031 84 4 1 3065 1 1 6 2 2 3099 1 15 5 2 3032 89 4 1 3066 121 2 2 31 0 166 5 2 3033 95 4 1 3067 1 26 2 2 3034 1 00 4 1 3068 1 32 2 2 0000 ZONAL D a t a 40 1 6661 21 40 4 6586 91 0000 P a r a m e t e r s 5011 . 4 5 5016 . 4 5 5 0 2 0 1 . 3 0 0 40 2 7426 56 40 5 1 1 0 9 5 93 5 0 1 2 1 . 2 2 5 0 1 7 1 . 9 1 40 3 9185 52 40 6 1 3 9 0 8 59 5013 0 . 0 5018 0 . 0 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 70 1 2 . 1 4 2 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 90961 . 0 0 0 8 9 . 3 70 2 2 . 2 3 2 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 1 10581 . 0 0 0 1 0 5 . 5 70 3 2 . 0 8 8 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 1 33501 . 0 0 0 1 0 7 . 4 70 4 2 . 2 2 4 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 96521 . 0 0 0 9 5 . 3 70 5 2 . 0 8 4 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 109951 . 0 0 0 1 0 8 . 0 70 6 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 00 . 0 0 . 0 F i g u r e A 3 : 2 5 - 2 ( c o n t ) K I T C H E N E R : Demand C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 0000 S u p p l y C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL" M O D I F I E D HOUSEHOLDS 10 1 1601 1 - 2 3 0 17 1051 4826 7 1800 384 10 2 3061 1 753 157 1052 7017 7 3975 802 10 3 4737 1 2499 476 1053 9043 7 6350 1 488 10 4 9376 1 7807 2149 1 0 5 4 1 0 9 5 4 7 7348 1804 10 5 1 1 43 2 - 9 9 35 1 0 5 5 1 4 9 0 4 7 1 4 2 0 5 4900 10 6 2722 2 1607 298 1056 6568 8 3047 595 10 7 3764 2 2674 484 1057 9322 8 6164 1296 10 8 4458 2 3496 660 1 0 5 8 1 0 7 2 8 8 8030 1802 10 9 501 1 2 4388 889 1 0 5 9 1 1 3 7 5 8 8564 1 950 1010 5582 2 4559 941 1 0 6 0 1 2 0 7 0 8 9534 2163 1011 651 1 2 5984 1350 1 0 6 1 1 2 7 9 9 8 1 0 0 2 9 2218 1012 7502 2 71 34 1725 1 0 6 2 1 3 5 6 8 8 1 1 2 4 0 2653 1013 9899 2 1 0 4 7 4 31 14 1 0 6 3 1 4 3 8 7 81 2432 3049 1014 2822 3 576 162 1 0 6 4 1 5 4 1 8 8 1 3 0 0 5 3245 1015 5064 3 3096 562 1 0 6 5 1 6 5 7 5 8 1 4 1 6 2 3742 1016 6160 3 4350 828 1 0 6 6 1 8 8 6 7 8 1 7 2 1 2 4907 1017 7094 3 5471 1090 1 0 6 7 2 7 1 6 0 8 3 0 2 3 9 1 1 5 5 0 1018 8068 3 6588 1 321 1068 3730 9 308 190 1019 8876 3 7666 1611 1069 7 3 2 5 9 3642 713 1 020 9620 3 8 4 3 9 1798 1070 8 4 6 5 9 4923 1038 1 0 2 1 1 0 3 3 0 3 9497 21 17 1071 8 9 9 6 9 5245 1 1 40 1 0 2 2 1 1 2 6 9 3 0470 2372 1072 9716 9 5883 1 323 1 0 2 3 1 2 2 9 9 3 1 1 8 2 7 2770 1 0 7 3 1 0 3 2 5 9 6719 1 583 1 0 2 4 1 3 5 3 8 3 1 3 4 4 4 3361 1 0 7 4 1 1 1 7 7 9 7646 1 903 1 0 2 5 1 7 0 5 5 3 8660 5558 107511961 9 8818 2318 1 026 972 4 - 3 0 3 43 1 0 7 6 1 3 2 4 3 910288 2950 1 027 3399 4 1614 293 1 0 7 7 1 5 5 2 9 913261 4330 1 028 5025 4 2808 521 1 0 7 8 2 3 2 4 8 9 2 7 6 9 2 1 3 2 6 9 1 029 6565 4 4079 813 1079 5 7 6 5 10 2003 498 1 030 7610 4 5428 1 189 1080 8211 ' 10 4263 923 1 0 3 1 1 0 5 6 0 4 9390 2681 1081 8871 10 5323 1 1 40 1 032 3243 5 475 1 93 1082 9 4 5 5 10 5951 1 366 1 033 5628 5 2 4 8 6 536 1083 9837 10 6395 1411 1 034 6593 5 3829 777 108410291 10 6445 1 472 1 035 7448 5 51 27 1065 1 0 8 5 1 0 6 0 8 10 6948 1 494 1 036 8305 5 6274 1281 1 0 8 6 1 0 9 6 8 10 7811 1787 1037 9051 5 6921 1 467 1 0 8 7 1 1 3 4 2 10 7971 1799 1 038 9876 5 7 9 8 6 1756 1 0 8 8 1 1 7 0 4 10 7492 1686 1 0 3 9 1 0 9 2 8 5 941 3 2181 1 0 8 9 1 2 0 2 6 10 7787 1753 1 0 4 0 1 4 0 2 9 5 1 2 7 5 7 3389 1 0 9 0 1 2 2 9 9 10 9081 2098 1 041 2791 6 - 5 0 2 0 1 0 9 1 1 2 8 4 4 10 8731 2058 1042 3565 6 - 2 9 5 22 1 0 9 2 1 3 3 5 4 1010248 2489 1 043 4252 6 367 1 24 1 0 9 3 1 3 7 3 6 1010438 2543 1 044 5042 6 - 3 7 74 109414251 1011149 2927 1 045 5891 6 530 1 1 1 1 0 9 5 1 4 6 8 3 1011393 2744 1 046 6772 6 1 777 339 1 0 9 6 1 5 4 4 9 1011918 2952 1 047 7554 6 2054 409 1 0 9 7 1 6 1 6 2 1 0 1 2 9 9 2 3357 1 048 8832 6 3519 735 1 0 9 8 1 7 4 1 2 1014423 4005 1 0 4 9 1 1 7 8 4 6 6564 1559 109919541 1017182 5254 105016841 6 1 2 5 6 3 3954 11 0 2 7 6 5 5 1 0 2 8 4 4 3 1 0 4 3 0 F i g u r e A 3 : 2 6 - 2 K I T C H E N E R : S u p p l y C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 0000 S u p p l y C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 Mean A F T E R TAX INCOME by 20 1 1 7 9 . 0 3 6 0 . 8 5 8 2 . 5 1 1 3 2 . 20 2 2 3 4 . 4 3 9 3 . 9 5 3 8 . 8 7 8 4 . 0 20 3 3 8 3 . 3 6 6 6 . 1 8 9 7 . 3 1 2 5 3 . 20 4 2 6 5 . 6 4 4 6 . 2 6 1 4 . 6 8 9 7 . 2 20 5 4 1 1 . 7 6 2 5 . 0 8 0 5 . 6 1 1 4 5 . H o u s e h o l d T Y P E 20 6 3 3 7 . 6 5 5 9 . 0 8 2 5 . 5 1 3 5 4 20 7 4 5 7 . 6 6 5 1 . 4 8 8 6 . 5 1 2 3 6 20 8 6 9 3 . 2 1 0 0 7 . 1 2 7 7 . 1 8 5 9 20 9 5 5 5 . 3 7 9 2 . 2 1 0 0 5 . 1 4 8 6 2 0 1 0 7 1 2 . 0 9 5 3 . 9 1 2 0 0 . 1 7 4 9 0000 Demand PARAMETERS by T Y P E 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 01) 21 1 0 - . 4 7 5 - . 1 6 7 . 2 7 9 6 . 1 4 0 7 . 1 2 1 2 5 1 . 7 6 7 2 . 4 9 1 7 9 . 01 . 6 4 3 21 2 0 - . 4 4 6 - . 1 8 3 . 3 3 0 9 . 0 5 1 5 . 1 8 7 7 6 1 . 3 6 1 0 2 . 6 2 3 4 . 41 . 6 4 9 21 3 o - . 3 3 2 - . 1 5 7 . 2 3 0 3 . 1 2 4 4 . 0 0 8 3 7 4 . 8 2 1 9 9 . 1 3 8 3 . 31 . 6 6 3 21 4 0 - . 4 0 9 - . 1 1 0 . 2 8 4 6 . 2 5 1 8 . 1 0 7 8 6 4 . 99121 . 6 2 6 5 . 61 . 6 6 5 21 5 0 - . 3 2 1 - . 1 3 7 . 2 2 1 9 . 2 3 1 8 . 0 0 1 7 7 7 . 0 9 2 1 6 . 241 1 . 71 . 6 9 3 21 6 o - . 5 9 0 - . 1 3 4 . 3 7 9 4 . 1 3 1 7 . 2 4 6 3 8 7 . 8 8 1 0 6 . 9 3 3 7 . 62 . 2 5 9 21 7 0 - . 4 3 4 - . 1 6 0 . 3 2 6 3 . 1 3 5 4 . 1 5 4 2 8 5 . 2 5 2 0 0 . 8 4 5 7 . 62 . 3 0 8 21 8 0 - . 3 0 9 - . 1 4 7 . 1 3 6 2 . 1 9 0 0 - . 2 0 4 9 1 . 7 8 3 6 8 . 0 6 9 3 . 22 . 3 3 6 21 9 o - . 3 4 4 - . 1 4 0 . 2 4 2 8 . 2081 . 0 3 5 7 7 9 . 14281 . 8 5 5 5 . 32 . 3 8 7 2110 0 - . 2 9 8 - . 1 2 2 . 2 2 3 7 . 2 3 8 9 . 0 0 8 8 8 8 . 2 9 3 8 6 . 0 7 1 2 . 02 . 3 8 0 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 02) 22 1 0 - . 3 1 9 - . 1 2 3 . 201 0 . 2 7 3 4 . 0 0 2 3 6 9 . 9 5 1 8 9 . 1 3 6 0 . 81 . 6 4 3 22 2 o - . 2 7 2 - . 1 2 4 . 1 5 6 4 . 2 4 8 1 - . 1 3 1 6 4 . 8 8 2 2 0 . 4 3 9 3 . 91 . 6 5 3 22 3 o - . 1 9 0 - . 0 8 0 . 1 3 5 3 . 3 6 7 9 - . 1 0 3 7 5 . 4 0 4 1 5 . 4 6 6 6 . 1 1 . 6 7 3 22 4 0 - . 2 9 4 - . 1 4 3 . 1 2 5 8 . 2 0 3 4 - . 2 2 9 7 7 . 9 6 2 4 2 . 2 4 4 6 . 21 . 6 8 6 22 5 o - . 2 1 8 - . 1 0 9 . 1 3 4 3 . 261 1- . 2 0 9 8 0 . 6 6 3 7 6 . 2 6 2 5 . 01 . 6 8 3 22 6 0 - . 4 6 1 - . 0 9 8 . 3 9 3 5 . 2961 . 3 1 0 4 1 1 2 . 4 2 3 2 . 8 5 5 9 . 02 . 2 8 2 22 7 o - . 3 4 3 - . 1 4 4 . 2 3 3 8 . 2 2 6 2 . 0 4 3 1 9 4 . 9 0 3 3 0 . 1651 . 42 . 3 4 0 22 8 o - . 2 3 2 - . 0 9 4 . 0 9 7 6 . 341 7 - . 3 5 7 9 9 . 2 1 5 9 4 . 1 1007 . 2 . 3 6 4 22 9 0 - . 2 9 3 - . 1 5 5 . 1 5 6 8 . 1 7 3 9 - . 1 4 2 9 6 . 5 9 4 3 1 . 2 7 9 2 . 22 . 3 9 7 2210 o - . 2 5 5 - . 1 2 1 . 1 7 7 5 . 2 3 9 6 - . 0 8 3 1 0 1 . 9 5 4 6 . 9 9 5 3 . 92 . 3 8 3 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 03) 23 1 0 - . 2 2 1 - . 0 8 3 . 1 1 6 0 . 3 8 4 6 - . 2 2 5 7 8 . 2 5 3 4 8 . 8 5 8 2 . 51 . 6 5 0 23 2 0 - . 2 2 6 - . 0 9 7 . 1221 . 3 4 6 5 - . 1 6 5 7 3 . 1 8 3 2 0 . 6 5 3 8 . 81 . 6 6 4 23 3 o - . 1 5 0 -. 0 7 8 . 1 1 4 1 . 3 2 9 9 - . 1 3 1 8 0 . 1 8 5 8 6 . 7 8 9 7 . 31 . 6 7 6 23 4 0 - . 2 3 7 - . 0 6 8 . 1 9 2 2 . 4 9 8 9 . 0 2 1 7 8 5 . 7 4 3 6 0 . 1 6 1 4 . 61 . 7 0 3 23 5 0 - . 1 7 7 - . 0 7 8 . 1 4 2 8 . 4 0 8 5 . 0 2 9 2 8 4 . 3 2 5 0 9 . 9 8 0 5 . 61 . 6 8 8 23 6 o - . 3 3 0 - . 1 2 5 . 2 9 3 8 . 2 6 7 8 . 2 2 1 1 1 1 9 . 1 4 2 8 . 0 8 2 5 . 52 . 2 5 6 23 7 0 - . 3 1 0 - . 0 9 8 . 2 5 4 7 . 3 8 3 9 . 1918116 . 7 4 7 0 . 7 8 8 6 . 52 . 351 23 8 0 - . 2 1 2 - . 1 0 7 . 0 9 6 6 . 21 7 5 - . 3 5 5 1 1 4 . 9 7 7 3 . 91277 . 2 . 3 5 8 23 9 0 - . 2 8 1 - . 1 0 3 . 2371 . 3 3 4 3 . 1363117 . 5 5 5 5 . 91005 . 2 . 3 9 9 2310 o - . 2 2 6 - . 0 9 4 . 1 9 3 4 . 3 3 0 9 . 0 6 0 4 1 1 2 . 7 7 1 5 . 21 200 . 2 . 3 9 4 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 04) 24 1 0 - . 1 2 9 -. 0 6 8 . 0661 . 3 2 8 1 - . 3 2 9 8 7 . 7 8 7 5 8 . 51 1 32 . 1 . 6 5 2 24 2 0 - . 1 8 2 - . 1 0 4 . 0 7 5 4 . 241 0 - . 3 6 5 8 4 . 9 5 4 9 3 . 7 7 8 4 . 01 . 6 6 9 24 3 o - . 1 1 7 - .061 . 0 7 2 0 . 3 6 1 0 - . 2 3 6 8 7 . 1 8 8 5 1 . 01 253 . 1 . 6 7 8 24 4 o - . 1 8 4 - . 0 9 3 . 0 9 7 6 . 3 4 8 3 - . 2 6 1 9 6 . 1 4 5 6 3 . 0 8 9 7 . 21 . 7 1 2 24 5 0 - . 1 3 4 -. 0 7 4 . 0671 . 31 9 8 - . 3 6 9 8 9 . 4 8 7 6 2 . 91 145 . 1 . 7 0 3 24 6 o - . 2 6 1 - . 1 4 2 . 0 9 5 4 . 1 5 4 7 - . 3 1 5 1 5 4 . 7 7 7 1 . 41 354 . 2 . 2 6 6 24 7 o - . 2 5 8 - . 1 1 9 . 1 8 5 2 . 2 4 4 2 . 0 0 8 7 1 3 3 . 6 7 0 7 . 81 236 . 2 . 361 24 8 o - . 1 7 1 - . 0 8 2 . 0 8 2 5 . 3 2 6 6 - . 3 1 2 1 3 4 . 9 1 1 8 5 . 1 8 5 9 . 2 . 3 6 2 24 9 o - . 2 4 5 - . 1 1 9 . 1 1 8 2 . 231 3 - . 2 3 9 1 5 1 . 2 8 6 4 . 2 1 4 8 6 . 2 . 3 9 9 2410 o - . 2 1 4 - . 1 0 6 . 1061 . 2 6 0 2 - . 2 5 6 1 5 5 . 6 1 0 5 9 . 1749 . 2 . 3 9 2 F i g u r e A 3 : 2 6 - 2 ( c o n t ) K I T C H E N E R : S u p p l y C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 488 0000 S u p p l y C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 " M O D E L " DWELLINGS 30 1 38 1 1 3022 81 1 2 3043 124 2 2 30 2 56 1 1 3023 85 1 2 3044 129 2 2 30 3 64 1 1 3024 89 1 2 3045 142 2 2 30 4 68 1 1 3025 93 1 2 3046 175 2 2 30 5 75 1 1 3026 97 1 2 3047 132 3 2 30 6 85 1' 1 3027 1 03 1 2 3048 44 4 2 30 7 1 07 1 1 3028 109 1 2 3049 68 4 2 30 8 53 2 1 3029 1 16 1 2 3050 74 4 2 30 9 68 2 1 3030 1 22 1 2 3051 77 4 2 3010 79 2 1 3031 1 49 1 2 3052 81 4 2 301 1 102 2 1 3032 67 2 2 3053 85 4 2 3012 43 4 1 3033 78 2 2 3054 89 4 2 301 3 59 4 1 3034 84 2 2 3055 93 4 2 301 4 68 4 1 3035 91 2 2 3056 96 4 2 301 5 76 4 1 3036 97 2 2 3057 100 4 2 301 6 87 4 1 3037 1 02 2 2 3058 107 4 2 3017 1 12 4 1 3038 1 06 2 2 3059 1 1 3 4 2 3018 186 5 1 3039 1 10 2 2 3060 1 20 4 2 301 9 61 1 2 3040 1 1 3 2 2 3061 1 28 4 2 3020 73 1 2 3041 1 1 7 2 2 3062 169 4 2 3021 77 1 2 3042 1 20 2 2 3063 1 27 5 2 0000 ZONAL D a t a 40 1 6661 21 40 2 7426 56 40 3 9 1 8 5 52 40 4 6586 91 40 5 1 1 0 9 5 93 40 6 1 0 9 0 8 59 0000 P a r a m e t e r s 50 1 . 1 50 2 . 3 501 1 . 4 5 501 21 . 2 2 501 3 3 8 . 501 6 . 4 5 50171 .91 5018 7 4 . 5 0 2 0 1 . 3 0 0 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 70 1 1 . 5 5 4 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 88851 . 0 0 0 93 . 2 70 21 . 6 2 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 107411 . 0 0 0 97 . 3 70 31 . 6 1 6 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 150571 . 0 0 0 1 0 3 . 2 70 41 . 5 5 4 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 92271 . 0 0 0 98 . 0 70 51 . 4 6 7 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 1 1 0871 . 0 0 0 1 1 0 . 2 70 61 . 7 8 1 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 103621 . 0 0 0 99 . 5 70 72 . 4 1 3 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 91 460 . 9 2 8 90 .7 70 82 . 5 1 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 111020 . 8 9 2 97 . 8 70 92 . 3 7 1 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 149941 . 0 0 0 1 1 2 . 0 701 02 . 4 5 7 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 9 8 4 3 0 . 9 4 8 93 . 8 701 12 . 0 3 2 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 109201 . 0 0 0 1 1 2 . 7 701 22 . 2 0 8 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 114041 . 0 0 0 1 2 2 .7 F i g u r e A 3 : 2 6 - 2 ( c o n t ) K I T C H E N E R : S u p p l y C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 0 0 0 0 P o l i c y D a t a s e t 0 0 0 0 " M O D E L " M O D I F I E D HOUSEHOLDS a n d B A S E D a t a 10 .1 1601 1 - 2 2 9 17 141 . 4 5 0 46 . 4 10 2 3061 1 753 157 9991 . 8 3 7 53 . 4 10 3 4737 1 2499 476 9991 . 8 3 7 60 . 4 10 4 9376 1 7807 2149 9991 . 8 3 7 73 . 1 10 5 1 143 2 - 9 8 35 21 . 3 6 6 33 . 8 10 6 2722 2 1 607 298 9991 . 8 3 7 52 . 3 10 7 3764 2 2674 484 9991 . 8 3 7 57 .7 10 8 4458 2 3496 660 9991 . 8 3 7 55 . 8 10 9 501 1 2 4388 889 9991 . 8 3 7 55 . 6 1010 5582 2 4559 941 9991 . 8 3 7 58 . 3 1011 651 1 2 5984 1 350 9991 . 8 3 7 61 . 4 1012 7502 2 71 34 1 725 9991 . 8 3 7 66 . 1 1013 9899 2 1 0 4 7 4 3114 91 . 8 7 5 72 . 5 1014 2822 3 576 162 81 . 6 7 0 46 . 6 1015 5064 3 3096 562 9991 . 8 3 7 67 . 4 1016 6160 3 4350 828 9991 . 8 3 7 69 .7 1017 7094 3 5471 1090 9991 . 8 3 7 68 . 2 1018 8068 3 6588 1 321 9991 . 8 3 7 64 . 0 1019 8876 3 7666 1611 9991 . 8 3 7 66 . 0 1 020 9620 3 8439 1798 9991 . 8 3 7 67 . 1 1 0 2 1 1 0 3 3 0 3 9497 2117 9991 . 8 3 7 67 . 6 1 0 2 2 1 1 2 6 9 3 1 0 4 7 0 2372 31 . 8 6 0 67 . 2 1 0 2 3 1 2 2 9 9 311827 2770 9991 . 8 3 7 71 . 0 1 0 2 4 1 3 5 3 8 3 1 3 4 4 4 3361 41 . 8 5 7 71 . 2 1 0 2 5 1 7 0 5 5 3 1 8 6 6 0 5558 1 1 1 . 7 2 2 94 . 3 1 026 972 4 - 3 0 2 43 1 1 . 4 2 9 25 . 0 1 027 3399 4 1614 293 161 . 6 0 6 71 . 5 1 028 5025 4 2808 521 9991 . 8 3 7 66 . 9 1 029 6565 4 4079 813 9991 . 8 3 7 72 . 8 1 030 7610 4 5428 1 189 101 . 8 0 4 78 . 3 1 0 3 1 1 0 5 6 0 4 9390 2681 181 . 4 6 3 1 2 7 . 6 1 032 3243 5 475 1 93 151 . 5 5 8 58 . 7 1 033 5628 5 2486 536 171 .591 90 . 0 1 034 6593 5 3829 777 9991 . 8 3 7 71 . 4 1 035 7448 5 5127 1065 9991 . 8 3 7 69 . 4 1 036 8 3 0 5 5 6274 1281 9991 . 8 3 7 71 . 1 1 037 9051 5 6921 1467 9991 . 8 3 7 72 . 0 1 038 9876 5 7986 1 756 51 . 8 0 8 74 . 9 1 0 3 9 1 0 9 2 8 5 941 3 2181 61 . 7 6 4 81 . 5 1 0 4 0 1 4 0 2 9 512757 3389 71 . 6 8 0 94 . 3 1 041 2791 6 -501 0 521 . 9 9 9 71 . 6 1 042 3565 6 - 2 9 4 22 542 . 1 1 9 84 . 6 1 043 4252 6 367 124 9992 . 5 9 6 75 . 1 1 044 5042 6 - 3 6 74 9992 . 5 9 6 82 .8 1 045 5891 6 530 1 1 1 9992 . 5 9 6 89 . 0 1 046 6772 6 1777 339 9992 . 5 9 6 93 . 0 1 047 7554 6 2054 409 9992 . 5 9 6 96 . 0 1 048 8832 6 3519 735 9992 . 5 9 6 97 . 5 1 0 4 9 1 1 7 8 4 6 6564 1 559 632 . 2 8 3 1 3 2 . 1 105016841 6 1 2 5 6 3 3954 442 . 4 2 4 1 4 3 . 9 F i g u r e A 3 : 2 7 - 2 K I T C H E N E R : M O D I F I E D P o l i c y D a t a s e t 490 0000 P o l i c y D a t a s e t 0000 " M O D E L " M O D I F I E D HOUSEHOLDS a n d B A S E D a t a 1051 4826 7 1800 384 5 5 2 . 105 8 6 . 8 1052 7017 7 3975 802 9 9 9 2 . 596 7 8 . 9 1053 9 0 4 3 7 6350 1488 9 9 9 2 . 596 8 8 . 9 1 0 5 4 1 0 9 5 4 7 7348 1804 2 8 2 . 3 7 8 1 1 6 . 5 1 0 5 5 1 4 9 0 4 7 1 4 2 0 5 4900 4 1 2 . 4 3 7 1 2 8 . 5 1056 6568 8 3047 595 3 2 2 . 359 7 1 . 2 1057 9322 8 6164 1296 9 9 9 2 . 596 8 0 . 2 1 0 5 8 1 0 7 2 8 8 8030 1802 9 9 9 2 . 596 8 3 . 2 1 0 5 9 1 1 3 7 5 8 8564 1950 9 9 9 2 . 596 8 3 . 7 1 0 6 0 1 2 0 7 0 8 9534 2163 9 9 9 2 . 596 8 3 . 7 1 0 6 1 1 2 7 9 9 8 1 0 0 2 9 2218 9 9 9 2 . 596 8 6 . 9 1 0 6 2 1 3 5 6 8 8 1 1 2 4 0 2653 2 3 2 . 503 9 6 . 3 1 0 6 3 1 4 3 8 7 8 1 2 4 3 2 3049 2 4 2 . 4 9 4 1 0 0 . 4 1 0 6 4 1 5 4 1 8 8 1 3 0 0 5 3245 2 7 2 . 4 0 4 1 1 1 . 4 1 0 6 5 1 6 5 7 5 8 1 4 1 6 2 3742 3 8 2 . 4 1 3 1 1 5 . 1 1 0 6 6 1 8 8 6 7 8 1 7 2 1 2 4907 3 9 2 . 4 3 4 1 2 0 . 6 1 0 6 7 2 7 1 6 0 8 3 0 2 3 9 1 1 5 5 0 4 5 2 . 4 3 1 1 5 5 . 4 1068 3730 9 308 190 5 1 1 . 918 6 3 . 2 1069 7 3 2 5 9 3642 713 5 6 2 . 234 9 4 . 6 1070 8 4 6 5 9 4923 1 038 5 7 2 . 2 6 9 1 0 0 . 3 1071 8 9 9 6 9 5245 1 140 9 9 9 2 . 596 8 2 . 4 1072 9 7 1 6 9 5883 1323 9 9 9 2 . 596 8 5 . 9 1 0 7 3 1 0 3 2 5 9 6719 1 583 6 0 2 . 2 2 6 1 1 7 . 5 1 0 7 4 1 1 1 7 7 9 7646 1 903 3 5 2 . 5 0 9 1 0 2 . 4 107511961 9 8818 2318 2 9 2 . 350121 . 0 1 0 7 6 1 3 2 4 3 9 1 0 2 8 8 2950 6 2 2 . 1 1 3 1 5 5 . 6 1 0 7 7 1 5 5 2 9 913261 4330 4 3 2 . 4 4 4 1 3 5 . 4 1 0 7 8 2 3 2 4 8 9 2 7 6 9 2 1 3 2 6 9 4 7 2 . 6 9 6 1 6 1 . 3 1079 5 7 6 5 10 2003 498 5 3 2 . 058 7 6 . 1 1080 8211 10 4263 923 2 0 2 . 465 8 0 . 8 1081 8871 10 5323 1 1 40 9 9 9 2 . 596 7 8 . 7 1082 9 4 5 5 10 5951 1 366 2 1 2 . 500 8 6 . 7 1083 9837 10 6395 1411 5 8 2 . 2 4 2 1 0 6 . 1 108410291 10 6445 1 472 ' 9 9 9 2 . 596 8 4 . 5 1 0 8 5 1 0 6 0 8 10 6948 1494 9 9 9 2 . 596 8 5 . 6 1 0 8 6 1 0 9 6 8 10 7811 1 787 5 9 2 . 23811 1 . 7 1 0 8 7 1 1 3 4 2 10 7971 1799 2 2 2 . 524 9 2 . 1 1 0 8 8 1 1 7 0 4 10 7492 1686 9 9 9 2 . 596 8 9 . 0 1 0 8 9 1 2 0 2 6 10 7787 1753 3 3 2 . 584 91 . 1 1 0 9 0 1 2 2 9 9 10 9081 2098 6 1 2 . 1 8 5 1 2 3 . 0 1 0 9 1 1 2 8 4 4 10 8731 2058 2 5 2 . 4 6 1 1 0 2 . 6 1 0 9 2 1 3 3 5 4 1010248 2489 3 4 2 . 565 9 7 . 2 1 0 9 3 1 3 7 3 6 1010438 2543 2 6 2 . 4 5 2 1 0 6 . 5 109414251 1 0 1 1 1 4 9 2927 3 6 2 . 4 6 5 1 0 7 . 1 1 0 9 5 1 4 6 8 3 1011393 2744 3 7 2 . 4 4 1 1 1 1 . 3 1 0 9 6 1 5 4 4 9 1011918 2952 3 0 2 . 3 3 1 1 2 6 . 2 1 0 9 7 1 6 1 6 2 1012992 3357 4 0 2 . 4 2 5 1 2 2 . 5 1 0 9 8 1 7 4 1 2 1 0 1 4 4 2 3 4005 4 2 2 . 4 2 9 1 3 0 . 3 109919541 1017182 5254 • 3 1 2 . 3 3 1 1 5 4 . ,2 11 0 2 7 6 5 5 1 0 2 8 4 4 3 1 0 4 3 0 4 6 2 . , 4 7 4 1 9 4 . ,2 F i g u r e A 3 : 2 7 - 2 K I T C H E N E R : M O D I F I E D P o l i c y D a t a s e t 0000 P o l i c y D a t a s e t 0000 Mean A F T E R T A X INCOME by H o u s e h o l d T Y P E 20 1 1 7 9 . 0 3 6 0 . 8 5 8 2 . 5 1 1 3 2 . 20 2 2 3 4 . 4 3 9 3 . 9 5 3 8 . 8 7 8 4 . 0 20 3 3 8 3 . 3 6 6 6 . 1 8 9 7 . 3 1 2 5 3 . 20 4 2 6 5 . 6 4 4 6 . 2 6 1 4 . 6 8 9 7 . 2 20 5 4 1 1 . 7 6 2 5 . 0 8 0 5 . 6 1 1 4 5 . 20 6 3 3 7 . 6 5 5 9 . 0 8 2 5 . 5 1 3 5 4 20 7 4 5 7 . 6 6 5 1 . 4 8 8 6 . 5 1 2 3 6 20 8 6 9 3 . 2 1 0 0 7 . 1 2 7 7 . 1 8 5 9 20 9 5 5 5 . 3 7 9 2 . 2 1 0 0 5 . 1 4 8 6 2 0 1 0 7 1 2 . 0 9 5 3 . 9 1 2 0 0 . 1 7 4 9 0000 Demand PARAMETERS by T Y P E 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 01) 21 1 0 - . 4 7 5 - . 1 6 7 . 2 7 9 6 . 1 4 0 7 . 1 2 1 2 5 1 . 7 6 7 2 . 4 9 1 7 9 . 0 1 . 6 4 3 21 2 o - . 4 4 6 - . 1 8 3 . 3 3 0 9 . 051 5 . 1 8 7 7 6 1 . 3 6 1 0 2 . 6 2 3 4 . 4 1 . 6 4 9 21 3 0 - . 3 3 2 - . 1 5 7 . 2 3 0 3 . 1 2 4 4 . 0 0 8 3 7 4 . 8 2 1 9 9 . 1 3 8 3 . 3 1 . 6 6 3 21 4 0 - . 4 0 9 - . 1 1 0 . 2 8 4 6 . 2 5 1 8 . 1 0 7 8 6 4 . 9 9 1 2 1 . 6 2 6 5 . 6 1 . 6 6 5 21 5 0 - . 3 2 1 - . 1 3 7 . 221 9 . 2 3 1 8 . 0 0 1 7 7 7 . 0 9 2 1 6 . 2 4 1 1 . 7 1 . 6 9 3 21 6 o - . 5 9 0 - . 1 3 4 . 3 7 9 4 . 1 3 1 7 . 2 4 6 3 8 7 . 8 8 1 0 6 . 9 3 3 7 . 6 2 . 2 5 9 21 7 0 - . 4 3 4 - . 1 6 0 . 3 2 6 3 . 1 3 5 4 . 1 5 4 2 8 5 . 2 5 2 0 0 . 8 4 5 7 . 6 2 . 3 0 8 21 8 o - . 3 0 9 - . 1 4 7 . 1 3 6 2 . 1 9 0 0 - . 2 0 4 9 1 . 7 8 3 6 8 . 0 6 9 3 . 2 2 . 3 3 6 21 9 o - . 3 4 4 - . 1 4 0 . 2 4 2 8 . 2081 . 0 3 5 7 7 9 . 1 4 2 8 1 . 8 5 5 5 . 3 2 . 3 8 7 2110 o - . 2 9 8 - . 1 2 2 . 2 2 3 7 . 2 3 8 9 . 0 0 8 8 8 8 . 2 9 3 8 6 . 0 7 1 2 . 0 2 . 3 8 0 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 02) 22 1 0 - . 3 1 9 - . 1 2 3 . 201 0 . 2 7 3 4 . 0 0 2 3 6 9 . 9 5 1 8 9 . 1 3 6 0 . 8 1 . 6 4 3 22 2 o - . 2 7 2 - . 1 2 4 . 1 5 6 4 . 2 4 8 1 - . 1 3 1 6 4 . 8 8 2 2 0 . 4 3 9 3 . 9 1 . 6 5 3 22 3 o - . 1 9 0 - . 0 8 0 . 1 3 5 3 . 3 6 7 9 - . 1 0 3 7 5 . 4 0 4 1 5 . 4 6 6 6 . 1 1 . 6 7 3 22 4 o - . 2 9 4 - . 1 4 3 . 1 2 5 8 . 2 0 3 4 - . 2 2 9 7 7 . 9 6 2 4 2 . 2 4 4 6 . 2 1 . 6 8 6 22 5 0 - . 2 1 8 - . 1 0 9 . 1 3 4 3 . 261 1- . 2 0 9 8 0 . 6 6 3 7 6 . 2 6 2 5 . 0 1 . 6 8 3 22 6 0 - . 4 6 1 - . 0 9 8 . 3 9 3 5 . 2961 . 3 1 0 4 1 1 2 . 4 2 3 2 . 8 5 5 9 . 0 2 . 2 8 2 22 7 o - . 3 4 3 - . 1 4 4 . 2 3 3 8 . 2 2 6 2 . 0 4 3 1 9 4 . 9 0 3 3 0 . 1 6 5 1 . 4 2 . 3 4 0 22 8 0 - . 2 3 2 - . 0 9 4 . 0 9 7 6 . 341 7 - . 3 5 7 9 9 . 2 1 5 9 4 . 1 1 0 0 7 . 2 . 3 6 4 22 9 0 - . 2 9 3 - . 1 5 5 . 1 5 6 8 . 1 7 3 9 - . 1 4 2 9 6 . 5 9 4 3 1 . 2 7 9 2 . 2 2 . 3 9 7 2210 o - . 2 5 5 - . 1 2 1 . 1 7 7 5 . 2 3 9 6 - . 0 8 3 1 0 1 . 9 5 4 6 . 9 9 5 3 : 9 2 . 3 8 3 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 03) 23 1 o - . 2 2 1 - . 0 8 3 . 1 1 6 0 . 3 8 4 6 - . 2 2 5 7 8 . 2 5 3 4 8 . 8 5 8 2 . 5 1 . 6 5 0 23 2 0 - . 2 2 6 - . 0 9 7 . 1 2 2 1 . 3 4 6 5 - . 1 6 5 7 3 . 1 8 3 2 0 . 6 5 3 8 . 8 1 . 6 6 4 23 3 o - . 1 5 0 - . 0 7 8 . 1 1 4 1 . 3 2 9 9 - . 1 3 1 8 0 . 1 8 5 8 6 . 7 8 9 7 . 3 1 . 6 7 6 23 4 0 - . 2 3 7 - . 0 6 8 . 1 9 2 2 . 4 9 8 9 . 0 2 1 7 8 5 . 7 4 3 6 0 . 1 6 1 4 . 6 1 . 7 0 3 23 5 o - . 1 7 7 - . 0 7 8 . 1 4 2 8 . 4 0 8 5 . 0 2 9 2 8 4 . 3 2 5 0 9 . 9 8 0 5 . 6 1 . 6 8 8 23 6 0 - . 3 3 0 - . 1 2 5 . 2 9 3 8 . 2 6 7 8 . 2 2 1 1 1 1 9 . 1 4 2 8 . 0 8 2 5 . 5 2 . 2 5 6 23 7 0 - . 3 1 0 - . 0 9 8 . 2 5 4 7 . 3 8 3 9 . 1 9 1 8 1 1 6 . 7 4 7 0 . 7 8 8 6 . 5 2 .351 23 8 o - . 2 1 2 - . 1 0 7 . 0 9 6 6 . 2 1 7 5 - . 3 5 5 1 1 4 . 9 7 7 3 . 9 1 2 7 7 . 2 . 3 5 8 23 9 0 - . 2 8 1 - . 1 0 3 . 2371 . 3 3 4 3 . 1 3 6 3 1 1 7 . 5 5 5 5 . 9 1 0 0 5 . 2 . 3 9 9 2310 0 - . 2 2 6 - . 0 9 4 . 1 9 3 4 . 3 3 0 9 . 0 6 0 4 1 1 2 . 7 7 1 5 . 2 1 2 0 0 . 2 . 3 9 4 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 04) 24 1 0 - . 1 2 9 -. 0 6 8 . 0661 . 3 2 8 1 - . 3 2 9 8 7 . 7 8 7 5 8 . 5 1 1 3 2 . 1 . 6 5 2 24 2 o - . 1 8 2 -. 1 0 4 . 0 7 5 4 . 241 0 - . 3 6 5 8 4 . 9 5 4 9 3 . 7 7 8 4 . 0 1 . 6 6 9 24 3 o - . 1 1 7 - .061 . 0 7 2 0 . 3 6 1 0 - . 2 3 6 8 7 . 1 8 8 5 1 . 0 1 2 5 3 . 1 . 6 7 8 24 4 o - . 1 8 4 - . 0 9 3 . 0 9 7 6 . 3 4 8 3 - . 2 6 1 9 6 . 1 4 5 6 3 . 0 8 9 7 . 2 1 . 7 1 2 24 5 o - . 1 3 4 - . 0 7 4 . 0671 . 3 1 9 8 - . 3 6 9 8 9 . 4 8 7 6 2 . 9 1 1 4 5 . 1 . 7 0 3 24 6 o - . 2 6 1 - . 1 4 2 . 0 9 5 4 . 1 5 4 7 - . 3 1 5 1 5 4 . 7 7 7 1 . 4 1 3 5 4 . 2 . 2 6 6 24 7 o - . 2 5 8 - . 1 1 9 . 1 8 5 2 . 2 4 4 2 . 0 0 8 7 1 3 3 . 6 7 0 7 . 8 1 2 3 6 . 2 .361 24 8 o - . 1 7 1 - . 0 8 2 . 0 8 2 5 . 3 2 6 6 - . 3 1 2 1 3 4 . 9 1 1 8 E . 1 8 5 9 . 2 . 3 6 2 24 9 o - . 2 4 5 - . 1 1 9 . 1 1 8 2 . 2 3 1 3 - . 2 3 9 1 5 1 . 2 8 6 4 . 2 1 4 8 6 . 2 . 3 9 9 2410 o - . 2 1 4 - . 1 0 6 . 1 0 6 1 . 2 6 0 2 - . 2 5 6 1 5 5 . 6 1 0 5 9 . 1 7 4 9 . 2 . 3 9 2 F i g u r e A 3 : 2 7 - 2 ( c o n t ) K I T C H E N E R : M O D I F I E D P o l i c y D a t a s e t 0000 P o l i c y D a t a s e t 0000 " M O D E L " DWELLINGS 30 1 38 1 1 30 2 56 1 1 30 3 64 1 1 30 4 68 1 1 30 5 75 1 1 30 6 85 1 1 30 7 1 07 1 1 30 8 53 2 1 30 9 68 2 1 301 0 79 2 1 301 1 1 02 2 1 3012 43 4 1 301 3 59 4 1 3014 68 4 1 3015 76 4 1 301 6 87 4 1 301 7 1 1 2 4 1 3018 186 5 1 3019 61 1 2 3020 73 1 2 3021 77 1 2 0000 ZONAL D a t a 40 1 6661 21 40 4 6586 91 0000 P a r a m e t e r s 50 1 0 . 1 0 0 50 3 0 . 5 0 0 50 5 0 . 5 0 0 5 0 1 1 0 . 4 5 0 5 0 1 6 0 . 4 5 0 5 0 2 0 1 . 3 0 0 3022 81 1 2 3023 85 1 2 3024 89 1 2 3025 93 1 2 3026 97 1 2 3027 103 1 2 3028 109 1 2 3029 1 1 6 1 2 3030 122 1 2 3031 149 1 2 3032 67 2 2 3033 78 2 2 3034 84 2 2 3035 91 2 2 3036 97 2 2 3037 1 02 2 2 3038 1 06 2 2 3039 110 2 2 3040 1 13 2 2 3041 1 17 2 2 3042 120 2 2 40 2 7426 56 40 5 1 1 0 9 5 93 50 20 . 3 0 0 50 40 . 3 8 0 50 60 . 3 1 0 50121 . 2 2 0 50171 . 9 1 0 492 3043 1 24 2 2 3044 1 29 2 2 3045 142 2 2 3046 175 2 2 3047 1 32 3 2 3048 44 4 2 3049 68 4 2 3050 74 4 2 3051 77 4 2 3052 81 4 2 3053 85 4 2 3054 89 4 2 3055 93 4 2 3056 96 4 2 3057 100 4 2 3058 1 07 4 2 3059 1 1 3 4 2 3060 120 4 2 3061 1 28 4 2 3062 169 4 2 3063 1 27 5 2 40 3 9 1 8 5 52 40 6 1 0 9 0 8 59 50 71 . 2 5 3 50 81 . 2 9 8 501 3 5 1 . 0 5018 7 4 . 0 F i g u r e A 3 : 2 7 - 2 ( c o n t ) K I T C H E N E R : M O D I F I E D P o l i c y D a t a s e t 493 QUEBEC CITY 494 Number o f Z o n e s : 05 D i s t r i b u t i o n o f C e n s u s T r a c t s t o Z o n e s : Zone 1961 1971 1 27 27 2 18 19 3 23 22 4 7 10 5 7 8 A — 1 1 T o t a l 82 97 n o t e : " A " i n d i c a t e s a n n e x e d t r a c t s . : a n n e x e d . c e n s u s t r a c t s i n c l u d e d i n Zone 5 S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : m o n t h l y r e n t v a l u e i n c o m e a c c e s s 1961 1 971 1 961 1 971 1961 1 971 1 5 4 . 7 2 . 1 0 , 9 1 4 . 1 7 , 6 0 6 . 2 , 8 1 0 . 7 , 6 2 4 . 2 9 . 2 7 7 . 1 0 3 . 1 7 , 1 8 4 . 2 4 , 4 3 8 . 3 , 6 2 0 . 9 , 7 1 8 . 51 . 3 5 2 . 8 8 . 1 1 , 6 5 1 . 1 7 , 5 6 7 . 2 , 9 9 5 . 9 , 3 6 2 . 1 0 0 . 4 8 2 . 1 3 9 . 1 8 , 5 0 4 . 2 7 , 3 3 4 . 4 , 9 5 8 . 1 3 , 2 7 3 . 9 9 . 5 6 3 . 1 0 6 . 1 5 , 0 1 4 . 2 0 , 1 9 8 . 4 , 1 0 4 . 1 0 , 2 8 7 . 1 0 1 . A 1 0 6 . 1 9 , 4 0 2 . 9 , 8 3 4 . 1 0 1 . • t a l 6 5 . 1 0 0 . 1 4 , 3 4 0 . 2 1 , 2 1 4 . 3 , 5 4 8 . 9 , 8 0 0 . 7 3 . T o t a l D w e l l i n g s i n Z o n e s : 1 961 1 971 d w e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g s %CMA s t o c k NEW %new %CMA new 1 2 4 , 4 4 9 . 2 5 , 3 7 0 . 1 9 . 9 2 , 0 5 3 . 8 .1 4 . 6 2 2 3 , 6 8 7 . 3 2 , 8 6 5 . 2 5 . 8 8 , 3 6 8 . 2 5 . 5 1 8 . 6 3 1 4 , 7 3 8 . 1 9 , 6 4 5 . 1 5 . 5 7 , 6 7 6 . 3 9 . 1 17 .1 4 6 , 6 6 1 . 1 7 , 2 1 5 . 1 3 . 5 9 , 6 4 0 . 5 6 . 0 2 1 . 5 5 9 , 3 6 6 . 1 2 , 4 5 0 . 9 . 8 5 , 9 7 1 . 5 2 . 0 1 4 . 4 A 1 9 , 5 9 0 . 1 5 . 4 1 0 , 6 7 7 . 5 4 . 5 2 3 . 8 7 8 , 9 0 1 . 1 2 7 , 1 3 5 . 1 0 0 . 0 4 4 , 8 9 4 . 3 5 . 3 1 0 0 . 0 s o u r c e : p r o g r a m " C Z O N E . F O R T " : f i l e s Q U E 6 1 . I N P U T a n d Q U E 7 1 . I N P U T . F i g u r e A 3 : 0 l - 3 QUEBEC C I T Y : Z o n a l C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (5 z o n e s ) F i g u r e A3:02-3 QUEBEC CITY: C l u s t e r i n g (5 zones) 496 D e m o g r a p h i c C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s : P o p u l a t i o n [ 1 ] 1 9 6 1 : 3 5 7 , 5 6 8 . [ 2 ] 1 9 7 1 : 4 8 0 , 5 0 5 . H o u s e h o l d s [ 1 ] 1 9 6 1 : 7 9 , 1 3 9 . [ 2 ] 1 9 7 1 : 1 2 7 , 5 1 0 . S o u r c e s : [ l ] S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a . CT 9 5 - 5 3 5 C T - 2 0 : [ 2 ] S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a . . CT 9 5 - 7 2 8 s e r i e s A Mean H o u s e h o l d I n c o m e s : 1971 C e n s u s [ 3 ] : 9 , 8 0 0 . 1974 SHU d a t a [4] : 1 0 , 8 7 9 . d e f l a t o r : 0 . 9 0 0 1 SHU d e f l a t e d : 9 , 9 9 2 . S o u r c e s : [ 3 ] S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a . CT 9 5 - 7 3 1 s e r i e s B , v a r i a b l e 49 : [ 4 ] f i l e Q U E . S H U SHU d a t a s e t : S a m p l e s i z e : 2 8 4 3 . Sum o f t h e WEIGHTS : 9 9 , 8 8 5 . R A T I O o f SHU w e i g h t s t o a c t u a l h o u s e h o l d s : 0 . 7 8 3 3 5 " M o d e l " H o u s e h o l d s : h o u s e h o l d mean # SHU t y p e i n c o m e h ' h o l d s 1 9 , 8 5 2 . 5 , 8 7 4 . 2 1 1 , 8 0 7 . 3 8 , 2 3 0 . 3 1 0 , 0 0 6 . 7 , 0 3 8 . 4 1 2 , 8 5 9 . 1 3 , 4 2 2 . 5 8 , 2 2 2 . 7 , 1 5 9 . 6 5 , 9 4 6 . 9 , 5 5 5 . 7 7 , 0 4 2 . 1 2 , 5 8 1 . 8 4 , 8 5 0 . 6 , 0 2 6 . # SHU a c t u a l " m o d e l " h ' h o l d s / h ' h o l d s h ' h o l d s m o d e l / " m o d e l " 6 . 9 7 9 . 1 2 5 0 . 3 8 . 1 0 0 6 . 1 2 8 4 . 7 . 1 0 0 5 . 1 2 8 3 . 1 3 . 1 0 3 2 . 1 3 1 7 . 7 . 1 0 2 3 . 1 3 0 6 . 1 0 . 9 5 6 . 1 2 2 0 . 1 3 . 9 6 8 . 1 2 3 6 . 6 . 1 0 0 4 . 1 2 8 2 . s o u r c e : p r o g r a m " H H 1 . F O R T " : f i l e Q U E . S H U F i g u r e A 3 : 0 3 - 3 QUEBEC C I T Y : HOUSEHOLD C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . 497 T o t a l 1961 d w e l l i n g s : 78,901 Rental Owner-occupier 45,631, 33,270, S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : zone rent #rental value #o-o annual u n i t s u n i t s r e n t / v a l u e 1 54. 17,923. 10,575. 6,526. 0.0648 2 74. 16,398. 17,920. 7,289. 0.0600 3 50. 5,876. 11,334. 8,862. 0.0564 4 87. 1,746. 20,136. 4,915. 0.0444 5 64. 3,691. 14,634. 5,675. 0.0564 t o t a l 63. 45,634. 14,490. 33,270. 0.0528 source: program "D61.FORT" : dataset QUE61.INPUT. 1961 "Model" D w e l l i n g s : d e r i v a t i o n : 1961 Dwellings : TOTAL 78,901. : RATIO of EXISTING unannexed/TOTAL 92.9^ : TOTAL 1961 Dwellings EXISTING i n 1971 82,241. : TOTAL 1961 Dwellings ADJUSTED f o r ANNEXED 88,491. 1971 "model" Dwellings 100. 1971 RATIO ACTUAL/"model" 1271. 1961 "model" Dwellings 70. d i s t r i b u t i o n : # zone , d w e l l i n g s 1 2 3 4 5 24,449. 23,687. 14,378. 6,661. 9,366. # "model' d w e l l i n g 22. 21 . 13. 6. 8. a c t u a l / "model" 111, 1 28, 1 34, 1 10, 171, "RHS"/actual SERVICES c a l c u l a t e d weighted 1 .1502 0.8880 1 .3382 0.9998 1.1156 1.0316 0.7964 1.2002 0.8967 1 .0005 e r r o r of f i t 0.01162 source: program "D61.FORT" dataset QUE61.INPUT, F i g u r e A3:04-3 QUEBEC CITY: 1961 Dwelling C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . OWNER/OCCUPIER MODEL R E N T A L MODEL O . L . S . W . L . S . O . L . S . W . L . S . CONSTANT M U L T I P L E CONSTRUCTED PRE 20 2 0 - 4 5 2 . 1774 ( 2 . 5 8 ) 0 . 5 8 9 6 ( 4 . 0 7 ) - . 2 3 5 5 ( 2 . 3 3 ) - . 2 2 5 0 ( 2 . 1 7 ) 3 . 1 0 1 2 ( 5 . 2 2 ) 0 . 5 0 2 3 ( 6 . 1 0 ) - . 4 2 2 6 ( 4 . 9 4 ) - . 3 0 3 0 ( 3 . 4 3 ) 2 . 0 5 4 1 ( 5 . 2 6 ) 0 . 1 4 6 2 ( 2 . 8 3 ) - . 3 2 3 0 ( 7 . 0 0 ) - . 1336 ( 2 . 8 1 ) 1 . 7 1 4 5 ( 4 . 4 6 ) 0 . 1 8 1 8 ( 3 . 4 9 ) - . 3 0 4 8 ( 7 . 7 5 ) - . 1 8 0 6 ( 4 . 2 7 ) C O N D I T I O N L N ROOMS L N INCOME A C C E S S 0 . 0 3 1 1 ( 0 . 2 3 ) 1 . 2 8 4 5 ( 7 . 2 7 ) 0 . 6 2 9 0 ( 5 . 7 8 ) - . 0 0 2 2 ( 2 . 4 5 ) 0 . 0 2 7 8 ( 0 . 2 7 ) 1 . 4 3 2 2 ( 1 0 . 0 ) 0 . 4 8 8 0 ( 6 . 3 1 ) 0 . 0 0 2 2 ( 3 . 0 7 ) 0 . 1135 ( 1 . 9 1 ) 0 . 4 9 4 2 ( 6 . 0 3 ) 0 . 4 7 1 8 ( 9 . 3 2 ) - . 0 0 2 5 ( 5 . 9 7 ) 0 . 1244 ( 2 . 4 0 ) 0 . 3 5 6 4 ( 4 . 9 3 ) 0 . 5 3 8 0 ( 1 0 . 8 ) - . 0 0 2 4 ( 6 . 8 8 ) R2 O B S E R V A T I O N S 0 . 3 9 343 0 . 9 9 343 0 . 6 2 338 0 . 9 9 338 n o t e " t " s t a t i s t i s i n b r a c k e t s d a t a s o u r c e : Q U E 6 1 . E A MEANS: L N INCOME 8 . 1284 M U L T I P L E 0 . 6 4 5 6 A C C E S S 6 6 . 5 F i g u r e A 3 : 0 5 - 3 QUEBEC C I T Y : 1961 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s 499 T o t a l 1971 d w e l l i n g s : 1 2 7 , 1 2 5 . R e n t a l : 7 3 , 5 8 0 . O w n e r - o c c u p i e r : 5 3 , 5 4 5 . S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : z o n e r e n t t r e n t a l v a l u e #o-o a n n u a l u n i t s u n i t s r e n t / v a l u e 1 71 . 1 9 , 0 8 0 . 1 6 , 3 8 7 . 6 , 2 8 0 . 0 . 0 5 2 8 2 1 0 3 . 2 4 , 9 3 0 . 2 3 , 2 6 9 . 7 , 9 2 0 . 0 . 0 5 2 9 3 9 8 . 1 5 , 8 7 0 . 1 8 , 5 1 5 . 2 3 , 3 8 5 . 0 . 0 6 3 6 4 1 3 8 . 8 , 4 9 0 . 2 7 , 9 6 3 . 8 , 7 2 0 . 0 . 0 5 8 8 5 1 1 1 . 5 , 2 1 0 . 1 9 , 1 1 1 . 7 , 2 4 0 . 0 . 0 6 9 6 t o t a l 9 8 . 7 3 , 5 8 0 . 2 0 , 5 8 8 . 5 3 , 5 4 5 . 0 . 0 5 7 6 >urce : p r o g r a m "D71 . F O R T " : d a t a s e t Q U E 7 1 . I N P U T . )71 " M o d e l " D w e l l i n g s : o t o t a l number o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s : 1 0 0 . d i s t r i b u t i o n : # " R H S " / a c t u a l S E R V I C E S # " m o d e l " a c t u a l / z o n e d w e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g " m o d e l " c a l c u l a t e d w e i g h t e d 1 2 5 , 3 6 0 . 2 0 . 1 2 6 8 . 1 . 1 078 1 . 0 6 0 0 2 3 2 , 8 5 0 . 2 6 . 1 2 6 3 . 0 . 9 4 0 4 0 . 8 9 9 8 3 3 9 , 2 5 5 . 3 2 . 1 2 2 7 . 1 . 0 8 9 6 1 . 0 4 2 5 4 1 7 , 2 1 0 . 1 3 . 1 3 2 4 . 0 . 8 6 2 6 0 . 8 2 5 4 5 1 2 , 4 5 0 . 9 . 1 3 8 3 . 1 . 0 4 8 5 1 . 0 0 3 3 1271 . e r r o r o f f i t 0 . 0 2 6 5 2 s o u r c e : p r o g r a m " D 7 1 . F O R T " : d a t a s e t Q U E 7 1 . I N P U T . F i g u r e A 3 : 0 6 - 3 QUEBEC C I T Y : 1971 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . [ "GAMMA" C a l i b r a t i o n S e t ] 500 T o t a l 1971 d w e l l i n g s : 1 2 7 , 1 2 5 . B u i l t p r i o r 1961 : 8 2 , 2 6 4 . B u i l t 1 9 6 1 - 1 9 7 1 : 4 4 , 8 6 1 . S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : z o n e r e n t # r e n t a l v a l u e #o-o a n n u a l u n i t s u n i t s r e n t / v a l u e 1 7 7 . 1 7 , 6 6 7 . 1 7 , 6 9 8 . 5 , 6 4 6 . 0 . 0 5 2 8 2 9 5 . 1 7 , 6 3 6 . 2 4 , 5 1 1 . 6 , 8 7 4 . 0 . 0 4 6 8 3 8 2 . 8 , 6 1 0 . 1 7 , 1 3 2 . 1 2 , 2 9 1 . 0 . 0 5 7 6 4 1 1 5 . 2 , 3 1 8 . 2 7 , 3 1 2 . 5 , 2 6 0 . 0 . 0 5 0 4 5 9 0 . 2 , 4 2 6 . 1 7 , 8 9 0 . 3 , 5 3 6 . 0 . 0 6 0 0 99 1 2 0 . 2 4 , 9 2 3 . 2 2 , 4 0 3 . 1 9 , 9 3 8 . 0 . 0 6 4 8 CMA 9 8 . 7 3 , 5 8 0 . 2 1 , 1 5 2 . 5 3 , 5 4 5 . 0 . 0 6 4 8 >urce : p r o g r a m "D71 . F O R T " : d a t a s e t Q U E 7 1 . I N P U T . )71 " M o d e l " D w e l l i n g s : t o t a l number o f " m o d e l " d w e l l i n g s : 1 0 0 . d i s t r i b u t i o n : # " R H S " / a c t u a l S E R V I C E S # " m o d e l " a c t u a l / z o n e d w e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g " m o d e l " c a l c u l a t e d w e i g h t e d r 2 3 , 3 1 3 . 1 8 . 1 2 9 5 . 1 . 0 1 6 0 0 . 9 8 9 0 2 2 4 , 5 1 0 . 1 9 . 1 2 9 0 . 0 . 9 5 6 8 0 . 9 3 1 4 3 2 0 , 9 0 2 . 1 6 . 1 3 0 6 . 1 . 2008 1 . 1689 4 7 , 5 7 8 . 6 . 1 2 6 3 . ' 0 . 9 1 1 3 0 . 8 8 7 1 5 5 , 9 6 2 . 5 . 1 1 9 2 . 1 . 1 6 8 3 1 . 1 3 7 3 99 4 4 , 8 6 1 . 3 6 . 1 2 4 6 . 0 . 9 3 4 2 0 . 9 0 9 4 1271 . e r r o r o f f i t 0 . 0 2 1 2 2 s o u r c e : p r o g r a m " D 7 1 . F O R T " : d a t a s e t Q U E 7 1 . I N P U T . F i g u r e A 3 : 0 7 - 3 QUEBEC C I T Y : 1971 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . [ " B E T A " C a l i b r a t i o n S e t ] OWNER/OCCUPIER MODEL RENTAL MODEL O . L . S . W . L . S . O . L . S . W . L . S . CONSTANT M U L T I P L E CONSTRUCTION 5 1 - 6 0 4 6 - 5 0 2 0 - 4 5 PRE 20 F A C I L I T I E S L N INCOME L N ROOMS R2 O B S E R V A T I O N S 7 . 6 3 0 ( 4 1 . 3 ) 0 . 2 2 4 4 ( 6 . 9 6 ) 0 . 0 1 8 3 ( 0 . 4 9 ) - . 1 429 ( 2 . 7 0 ) - . 1 5 6 8 ( 3 . 4 9 ) - . 3 4 3 6 ( 7 . 5 8 ) 0 . 2 3 2 8 ( 2 . 9 3 ) 0 . 1129 ( 6 . 0 6 ) 0 . 5 5 4 3 ( 1 0 . 6 ) 0 . 2 3 1002 7 . 4 6 3 ( 4 3 . 1 ) 0 . 2 3 3 2 ( 7 . 5 1 ) - . 0 2 0 ( 0 . 6 0 ) - . 1776 ( 3 . 5 5 ) - . 2 2 4 6 ( 5 . 0 1 ) - . 4 2 3 9 ( 9 . 7 5 ) 0 . 1 5 7 6 ( 2 . 0 3 ) 0 . 1239 ( 6 . 9 7 ) 0 . 6 4 7 0 ( 1 3 . 1 ) 0 . 9 8 1 002 5 . 8 0 2 9 ( 4 5 . 7 ) - . 0 1 8 4 ( 0 . 4 0 ) - . 2 2 8 0 ( 8 . 4 2 ) - . 3 7 5 3 ( 1 1 . 7 ) - . 3 9 1 9 ( 1 5 . 7 ) - . 4 5 2 1 ( 1 7 . 4 ) 0 . 4 2 8 7 ( 1 0 . 9 ) 0 . 0 9 7 5 ( 7 . 2 1 ) 0 . 1825 ( 7 . 1 1 ) 0 . 4 3 1226 5 . 9 8 8 ( 5 4 . 1 ) - . 0 2 1 2 ( 0 . 4 9 ) - . 2 2 3 6 ( 8 . 4 6 ) - . 3 9 0 2 ( 1 2 . 5 ) - . 4 2 6 5 ( 1 7 . 4 ) - . 4 5 5 5 ( 1 8 . 4 ) 0 . 3 9 9 6 ( 1 1 . 5 ) 0 . 0 8 1 2 ( 6 . 9 0 ) 0 . 1685 ( 6 . 8 7 ) 0 . 9 8 1 226 WEIGHTED 2 0 - 4 5 / P R E 20 - . 2 5 2 7 3269 - . 4 2 1 5 4408 n o t e M E A N S : L N INCOME M U L T I P L E A C C E S S " t " s t a t i s t i s i n b r a c k e t s d a t a s o u r c e : Q U E . S H U w e i g h t e d c o e f f i c i e n t f o r 2 0 - 4 5 a n d p r e 20 u s e d a s a c t u a l c e n s u s d a t a c o m b i n e s t h e s e v a r i a b l e s 9 . 1 1 4 9 0 . 3 9 0 2 7 0 . 0 F i g u r e A 3 : 0 8 - 3 QUEBEC C I T Y : 1971 H e d o n i c E s t i m a t e s 502 a d j u s t m e n t v a l u e s : 1971 C e n s u s 2 1 , 2 1 4 . 1 0 0 . 9 , 8 0 0 . P R I C E RENT INCOME R / V r a t i o : 0 . 0 5 7 6 r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s a n d A L P H A s : O . L . S . MODEL 1974 SHU 3 2 , 5 7 0 . 1 2 9 . 1 0 , 8 7 9 . d e f l a t o r 0 . 6 5 1 3 4 0 . 7 7 5 1 9 0 . 9 0 0 1 P ( j ) / P N r a t i o : 0 . 9 9 1 8 5 W . L . S . MODEL c o e f f i c i e n t s A L P H A S [ 1 ] CONSTANT ( T Y P E 1) DUMMY ( T Y P E 2) DUMMY ( T Y P E 3) DUMMY ( T Y P E 4) DUMMY ( T Y P E 5) DUMMY ( T Y P E 6) DUMMY ( T Y P E 7) DUMMY ( T Y P E 8) R2 O B S E R V A T I O N S 2 . 4 9 3 6 ( 7 3 . 9 ) - . 0 8 7 5 ( 2 . 3 0 ) - . 0 2 7 0 ( 0 . 5 4 ) - . 2 1 0 0 ( 4 . 6 9 ) 0 . 2 0 2 7 ( 4 . 3 8 ) 0 . 6 1 9 9 ( 1 3 . 0 ) 0 . 2 9 6 2 ( 6 . 4 1 ) 0 . 6 4 5 7 ( 1 2 . 1 ) 0 . 2 0 2788 0 . 1 2 1 0 0 . 1 109 0 . 1 1 7 8 0 . 0 9 8 1 0 . 1 4 8 2 0 . 2 2 5 0 0 . 1 6 2 8 0 . 2 3 0 8 c o e f f i c i e n t s .51 35 ( 7 0 . 6 ) A L P H A S [ 1 ] [ 2 ] 2 . 3 5 0 . 1 2 3 5 0 . 1 2 4 2 - . 1 1 9 7 ( 3 . 0 5 ) - . 0 1 8 6 ( 0 . 3 6 ) - . 2 2 9 0 ( 5 . 0 7 ) 0 . 1 4 9 6 ( 2 . 8 8 ) 0 . 5 9 6 6 ( 1 2 . 5 ) 0 . 2 9 0 3 ( 6 . 3 3 ) 0 . 6 0 3 8 ( 1 1 . 1 ) 0 . 7 2 2788 0 . 1 0 9 6 0 . 1 1 0 2 0 . 1 2 1 2 0 . 1 2 8 9 0 . 0 9 8 2 0 . 0 9 8 7 0 . 1 4 3 4 0 . 1 4 4 2 0 . 2 2 4 2 0 . 2 2 5 2 0 . 1 6 5 1 0 . 1 6 5 9 0 . 2 2 5 9 0 . 2 2 7 0 n o t e : [ l ] A L P H A v a l u e s a r e c a l c u l a t e d a s ; A L P H A ( 1 ) = E X P ( I N T E R C E P T ) A L P H A ( 2 ) - ( 8 ) = E X P ( I N T E R C E P T + C O E F F I C I E N T ) [ 2 ] A L P H A v a l u e s a d j u s t e d a s d e s c r i b e d i n S e c t i o n A 1 . 3 2 [ 3 ] " t " v a l u e s i n b r a c k e t s F i g u r e A 3 : 0 9 - 3 QUEBEC C I T Y : H o u s e h o l d A L P H A s 503 r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s a n d A L P H A s R l o g ( ) = l o g ( a ) + l o g ( Y ( i ) ) Y ( i ) O . L . S . MODEL W. L . S . MODEL A L P H A S [ 1 ] CONSTANT ( T Y P E 1) c o e f f i c i e n t 9 . 6 7 6 5 ( 6 5 . 1 ) c o e f f i c i e n t 9 . 4 0 2 3 ( 6 3 . 2 ) a t 0 . mean [ 2 ] 1 155 l o w e s t 0 . 0 8 5 1 h i g h e s t 0 . 1 9 7 7 DUMMY ( T Y P E 2) 0 . 0 1 1 6 ( 0 . 4 1 ) - . 0 1 6 3 ( 0 . 5 5 ) 0 . 0991 0 . 0 5 5 5 0 . 5 3 9 8 DUMMY ( T Y P E 3) 0 . 0 2 8 5 ( 0 . 7 8 ) 0 . 0 1 9 3 ( 0 . 5 1 ) 0 . 1 1 65 0 . 0 9 0 8 0 . 1804 DUMMY ( T Y P E 4) - . 0 2 5 5 ( 0 . 7 7 ) - . 0 5 3 4 ( 1 . 5 7 ) 0 . 0895 0 . 0 5 9 5 0 . 1 9 7 3 DUMMY ( T Y P E 5) 0 . 0 3 9 0 ( 1 . 1 5 ) - . 0 4 5 9 ( 1 . 1 8 ) 0 . 1265 0 . 0 8 0 9 0 . 2 4 0 1 DUMMY ( T Y P E 6) 0 . 1 7 2 5 ( 4 . 8 0 ) 0 . 1577 ( 4 . 3 0 ) 0 . 1 982 0 . 1 2 7 8 0 . 5 3 7 0 DUMMY ( T Y P E 7) 0 . 0 1 2 7 ( 0 . 3 7 ) - . 0 2 6 3 ( 0 . 7 5 ) 0 . 1 451 0 . 0 9 0 6 0 . 3 2 3 0 DUMMY ( T Y P E 8) 0 . 0 7 3 9 ( 1 . 8 1 ) - . 0 1 2 2 ( 0 . 2 9 ) 0 . 1 951 0 . 1 2 3 3 0 . 3 6 2 5 L N INCOME - . 7 8 8 1 ( 4 9 . 1 ) - . 7 5 6 4 ( 4 7 . 0 ) R2 0 . 5 7 0 . 8 5 O B S E R V A T I O N S 2788 I 2788 n o t e : [ 1 ] A L P H A v a l u e s a r e c a l c u l a t e d by t h e s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m p r o g r a m by s u b s t i t u t i n g t h e h o u s e h o l d ' s " m o d e l " i n c o m e s , a s d e s c r i b e d i n S e c t i o n A 1 . 3 2 . T h e s e a r e u n a d j u s t e d v a l u e s . [ 2 ] c a l c u l a t e d by s u b s t i t u t i n g T Y P E s mean i n c o m e . [ 3 ] " t " v a l u e s i n b r a c k e t s . F i g u r e A3:09-3(b) QUEBEC C I T Y : H o u s e h o l d A L P H A s [ m o d i f i e d ] 504 O p e r a t i n g a n d C a p i t a l C o s t s : A n n u a l A n n u a l O p e r a t i n g C a p i t a l D w e l l i n g Y e a r C o s t s C o s t s S t a r t s W e i g h t W e i g h t e d O p e r a t i n g C o s t s W e i g h t e d C a p i t a l C o s t s 1 961 7 5 3 . 0 8 4 8 . 3 , 2 4 7 - - -1 962 7 6 5 . 0 8 5 8 . 3 , 9 4 6 0 . 0 8 1 6 2 . 0 6 9 . 5 1963 7 7 5 . 0 9 2 2 . 4 , 5 3 5 0 . 0 9 3 7 2 . 1 8 5 . 7 1 964 7 9 5 . 0 9 5 8 . 4 , 2 5 7 0 . 0 8 7 6 9 . 2 8 3 . 3 1 965 8 1 9 . 0 9 7 7 . 4 , 2 2 8 0 . 0 8 6 7 0 . 4 8 4 . 0 1 966 8 4 6 . 0 1 1 4 4 . 3 , 3 7 3 0 . 0 6 9 5 8 . 4 7 9 . 0 1967 8 8 7 . 0 1 1 7 4 . 2 , 8 4 1 0 . 0 5 8 51 . 5 6 8 . 1 1968 9 9 0 . 0 1 4 3 9 . 4 , 9 0 3 0 . 100 9 7 . 1 1 4 3 . 9 1969 9 9 3 . 0 1681 . 6 , 184 0 . 125 1 2 4 . 3 2 1 0 . 1 1 970 1 0 6 3 . 0 1 7 8 6 . 6 , 421 0 . 1 3 1 1 3 9 . 3 2 3 4 . 0 1 971 1 1 3 3 . 0 1 6 6 2 . 8 , 0 7 4 0 . 169 191 . 6 2 8 0 . 9 " M o d e l " C o s t s : A n n u a l A n n u a l T o t a l O p e r a t i n g C a p i t a l A n n u a l C o s t s C o s t s C o s t PO PC PN QM 1 961 7 5 3 . 0 8 4 8 . 0 1 6 0 1 . o 0 . 4 7 0 0 . 5 3 0 1 . 0 0 0 d e c a d e • w e i g h t e d 9 3 6 . 0 1 3 3 9 . 0 2 2 7 5 . 0 0 . 5 8 4 0 . 8 3 6 1 . 4 2 0 44 1 971 1 1 3 3 . 7 1 6 6 2 . 0 2 7 9 5 . 7 0 . 7 0 8 1 . 0 3 8 1 . 7 4 6 36 F i g u r e A 3 : 1 0 - 3 QUEBEC C I T Y : P r i c e s , C o s t s a n d Q u a n t i t i e s [New C o n s t r u c t i o n ] 0000 GAMMA C A L I B R A T I O N 0000 INCOME by T Y P E 0000 " M O D E L " HOUSEHOLDS 20 1 9852 10 1 3015 1 1 0 5 1 1 7 3 2 9 3 20 2 1 1 8 0 6 10 2 6416 1 1052 2255 4 20 3 1 0 0 0 5 10 3 8137 1 1053 4614 4 20 4 1 2 8 5 9 10 4 9745 1 1054 6854 4 20 5 8221 10 5 1 2 3 7 2 1 1055 8264 4 20 6 5946 10 6 1 9 3 0 0 1 1056 9322 4 20 7 7042 10 7 282 2 1 0 5 7 1 0 3 3 0 4 20 8 4849 10 8 1775 2 1 0 5 8 1 1 5 2 6 4 10 9 2 9 8 5 2 1 0 5 9 1 3 1 1 6 4 0000 A L P H A by T Y P E 1010 3868 2 1 0 6 0 1 4 5 0 6 4 21 1 . 1 2 3 5 1011 4826 2 1 0 6 1 1 6 1 0 5 4 21 2 . 1 0 9 6 1012 5496 2 1 0 6 2 1 8 0 9 4 4 21 3 . 1 2 1 2 1013 5950 2 1 0 6 3 2 1 6 8 3 4 21 4 . 0 9 8 2 1014 6302 2 1 0 6 4 3 1 5 9 7 4 21 5 . 1 4 3 4 1015 6666 2 1065 2003 5 21 6 . 2 2 4 2 1016 6946 2 1066 3158 5 21 7 . 1 6 5 1 1017 7253 2 1067 4661 5 21 8 . 2 2 5 9 1018 7667 2 1068 6235 5 1019 7 9 6 5 2 1069 8141 5 1020 8 4 5 5 2 1 0 7 0 1 1 8 5 3 5 1021 8817 2 1 0 7 1 2 2 0 3 4 5 1022 9088 2 1072 661 6 1023 9293 2 1073 1659 6 1024 9568 2 1074 2762 6 1025 9952 2 1075 3531 6 1 0 2 6 1 0 2 6 2 2 1076 4549 6 1 0 2 7 1 0 7 1 7 2 1077 5647 6 1 0 2 8 1 0 9 7 3 2 1078 6774 6 1 0 2 9 1 1 2 6 9 2 1079 8320 6 1 0 3 0 1 1 6 9 5 2 1 0 8 0 1 0 1 0 2 6 1 0 3 1 1 2 1 6 5 2 1 0 8 1 1 5 6 2 4 6 1 0 3 2 1 2 8 3 2 2 1082 1207 7 103313491 2 1083 1805 7 103414121 2 1084 2478 7 1 0 3 5 1 4 8 2 5 2 1085 3354 7 1 0 3 6 1 5 6 9 7 2 1086 4518 7 1 0 3 7 1 6 6 2 8 2 1087 5290 7 1 0 3 8 1 7 7 8 8 2 1088 6223 7 1 0 3 9 1 8 5 9 5 2 1089 6985 7 1 0 4 0 1 9 7 5 6 2 1090 7702 7 1 0 4 1 2 1 6 1 4 2 1091 8801 7 1 0 4 2 2 4 7 8 3 2 1 0 9 2 1 0 6 5 8 7 1 0 4 3 3 0 6 9 4 2 1 0 9 3 1 2 6 2 9 7 1 0 4 4 4 2 3 7 9 2 1 0 9 4 1 9 8 4 7 7 1045 3816 3 1095 1238 8 1046 6 8 5 5 3 1096 1996 8 1047 8 2 5 5 3 1097 2732 8 1048 9704 3 1098 3918 8 1 0 4 9 1 1 1 4 8 3 1099 6250 8 1 0 5 0 1 2 8 3 3 3 11 0 1 3 3 2 5 8 F i g u r e A 3 : 1 1 - 3 QUEBEC C I T Y : "GAMMA" C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 506 0000 GAMMA CALIBRATION 0000 "MODEL" Dwellings 30 1 20 17 1 3035 78 64 2 3069 98 80 3 30 2 37 30 1 3036 81 66 2 3070 1 02 83 3 30 3 48 39 1 3037 83 67 2 3071 106 86 3 30 4 55 45 1 3038 85 69 2 3072 1 10 89 3 30 5 58 47 1 3039 87 71 2 3073 1 15 93 3 30 6 61 49 1 3040 90 73 2 3074 119 97 3 30 7 64 52 1 3041 93 75 2 3075 1 24 101 3 30 8 66 54 1 3042 96 78 2 3076 1 29 1 05 3 30 9 69 56 1 3043 99 80 2 3077 141 1 1 4 3 3010 72 58 1 3044 1 06 86 2 3078 187 152 3 301 1 75 61 1 3045 1 18 96 2 3079 40 33 4 3012 77 63 1 3046 169 1 37 2 3080 59 48 4 3013 80 65 1 3047 17 14 3 3081 67 54 4 3014 83 67 1 3048 32 26 3 3082 74 60 4 3015 86 70 1 3049 39 32 3 3083 81 66 4 301 6 91 74 1 3050 46 37 3 3084 86 70 4 3017 96 78 1 3051 52 42 3 3085 92 75 4 3018 1 04 84 1 3052 55 45 3 3086 98 79 4 3019 1 18 96 1 3053 58 47 3 3087 1 03 84 4 3020 1 62 1 32 1 3054 61 49 3 3088 109 88 4 3021 33 27 2 3055 64 52 3 3089 1 1 5 94 4 3022 45 37 2 3056 66 54 3 3090 1 26 1 02 4 3023 51 41 2 3057 69 56 3 3091 1 55 1 26 4 3024 54 44 2 3058 71 58 3 3092 32 26 5 3025 56 46 2 3059 73 60 3 3093 53 43 5 3026 59 48 2 3060 75 61 3 3094 64 52 5 3027 61 50 2 3061 78 63 3 3095 72 59 5 3028 63 51 2 3062 80 65 3 3096 80 65 5 3029 65 53 2 3063 82 67 3 3097 90 73 5 3030 68 55 2 3064 84 69 3 3098 1 03 84 5 3031 70 57 2 3065 87 70 3 3099 1 1 5 94 5 3032 72 58 2 3066 89 72 3 31 0 1 43 1 1 6 5 3033 74 60 2 3067 92 75 3 3034 76 62 2 3068 95 77 3 0000 ZONAL DATA 40 1 7624 29 40 2 9718 51 40 3 9362 108 40 413273 107 40 510010 110 40 6 9799 77 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n Data 70 11.3650.0580.3950.0360.1040.1050.0670.1620.072 75771.000 76.0 70 21.5330.0680.3970.0460.1310.1140.0600.1240.060 97161.000 78.1 70 31.3760.1190.5990.0530.0820.0620.0190.0460.020 96241.000 84.2 70 41.3420.1010.5370.0560.1020.0470.0570.0860.014132731.000 92.6 70 51.4160.1170.5750.0560.0910.0520.0360.0560.016102861.000 83.5 70 60.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 00.0 0.0 Figur e A3:11-3A QUEBEC CITY: "GAMMA" C a l i b r a t i o n Data 0000 BETA C A L I B R A T I O N 507 0000 INCOME by T Y P E 20 1 9852 20 2 1 1 8 0 6 20 3 1 0 0 0 5 20 4 1 2 8 5 9 5 8221 6 5946 7 7042 20 20 20 20 8 4849 0000 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 A L P H A 1235 1096 1212 0982 1 434 2242 1651 2259 by T Y P E 0000 " M O D E L " HOUSEHOLDS 10 1 301 5 1 1 0 5 1 1 7 3 2 9 3 10 2 641 6 1 1052 2 2 5 5 4 10 3 81 37 1 1053 4614 4 10 4 9 7 4 5 1 1054 6854 4 10 5 1 2 3 7 2 1 1055 8 2 6 4 4 10 6 1 9 3 0 0 1 1056 9322 4 10 7 282 2 1 0 5 7 1 0 3 3 0 4 10 8 1 775 2 1 0 5 8 1 1 5 2 6 4 10 9 2 9 8 5 2 1 0 5 9 1 3 1 1 6 4 1010 3868 2 1 0 6 0 1 4 5 0 6 4 1011 4 8 2 6 2 1 0 6 1 1 6 1 0 5 4 1012 5 4 9 6 2 1 0 6 2 1 8 0 9 4 4 1013 5950 2 1 0 6 3 2 1 6 8 3 4 1014 6 3 0 2 2 1 0 6 4 3 1 5 9 7 4 1015 6 6 6 6 2 1065 2003 5 1016 6 9 4 6 2 1066 3158 5 1017 7 2 5 3 2 1067 4661 5 1018 7667 2 1068 6 2 3 5 5 1019 7 9 6 5 2 1069 8141 5 1020 8 4 5 5 2 1 0 7 0 1 1 8 5 3 5 1 021 881 7 2 1 0 7 1 2 2 0 3 4 5 1022 9088 2 1072 661 6 1023 9 2 9 3 2 1073 1659 6 1024 9568 2 1074 2 7 6 2 6 1025 9 9 5 2 2 1075 3531 6 1 0 2 6 1 0 2 6 2 2 1076 4549 6 1 0 2 7 1 0 7 1 7 2 1077 5647 6 1 0 2 8 1 0 9 7 3 2 1078 6774 6 1 0 2 9 1 1 2 6 9 2 1079 8320 6 1 0 3 0 1 1 6 9 5 2 1 0 8 0 1 0 1 0 2 6 1 0 3 1 1 2 1 6 5 2 1 0 8 1 1 5 6 2 4 6 1 0 3 2 1 2 8 3 2 2 1082 1207 7 103313491 2 1083 1805 7 1 0 3 4 1 4 1 2 1 2 1084 2478 7 1 0 3 5 1 4 8 2 5 2 1085 3354 7 1 0 3 6 1 5 6 9 7 2 1086 4518 7 1 0 3 7 1 6 6 2 8 2 1087 5290 7 1 0 3 8 1 7 7 8 8 2 1088 6223 7 1 0 3 9 1 8 5 9 5 2 1089 6 9 8 5 7 1 0 4 0 1 9 7 5 6 2 1090 7702 7 1 0 4 1 2 1 6 1 4 2 1091 8801 7 1 0 4 2 2 4 7 8 3 2 1 0 9 2 1 0 6 5 8 7 1 0 4 3 3 0 6 9 4 2 1 0 9 3 1 2 6 2 9 7 1 0 4 4 4 2 3 7 9 2 1 0 9 4 1 9 8 4 7 7 1045 381 6 3 1095 1238 8 1046 6 8 5 5 3 1096 1996 8 1047 8 2 5 5 3 1097 2732 8 1048 9 7 0 4 3 1098 3918 8 1 0 4 9 1 1 1 4 8 3 1099 6250 8 1 0 5 0 1 2 8 3 3 3 11 0 1 3 3 2 5 8 F i g u r e A 3 : 1 2 - 3 QUEBEC C I T Y : " B E T A " C a l i b r a t i o n D a t a 508 0000 BETA CALIBRATION 0000 "MODEL" Dwellings 30 1 18 1 3035 66 2 30 2 31 1 3036 68 2 30 3 35 1 3037 71 2 30 4 39 1 3038 75 2 30 5 42 1 3039 78 2 30 6 44 1 3040 84 2 30 7 46 1 3041 93 2 30 8 48 1 3042 1 1 1 2 30 9 50 1 3043 1 60 2 301 0 53 1 3044 22 3 301 1 55 1 3045 39 3 3012 57 1 3046 47 3 3013 59 1 3047 53 3 301 4 61 1 3048 58 3 301 5 64 1 3049 62 3 301 6 67 1 3050 66 3 3017 70 1 3051 71 3 3018 74 1 3052 76 3 301 9 79 1 3053 81 3 3020 85 1 3054 90 3 3021 97 1 3055 1 04 3 3022 175 1 3056 1 50 3 3023 25 2 3057 46 4 3024 37 2 3058 60 4 3025 41 2 3059 70 4 3026 45 2 3060 79 4 3027 48 2 3061 92 4 3028 50 2 3062 1 27 4 3029 52 2 3063 38 5 3030 54 2 3064 52 5 3031 56 2 3065 61 5 3032 59 2 3066 68 5 3033 61 2 3067 75 5 3034 64 2 3068 83 5 0000 ZONAL DATA 40 1 7624 29 40 2 9718 51 40 3 9362 108 40 413273 1 07 40 510010 1 10 40 6 9799 77 3069 3070 92 125 5 5 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n Data 70 11.3660.0560.3880.0350.1050.1060.0690. 70 21 .5380.0620.3840.0430.1290.1230.0610. 70 31.4250.1140.5920.0520.0840.0690.0180. 70 41.6800.0890.5500.0480.0970.0650.0510. 70 51 .4770.1130.5700.0540.0940.0570.0350. 70 61 .4200.1110.5480.0560.0980.0570.0390. 1670.074 74880.955 78.7 1310.067 97311.000 77.2 0480.023 94701.000 80.3 0820.018145761.000 68.4 0580.018101970.637 78.6 0690.022103281.000100.5 F i g u r e A3:12-3A QUEBEC CITY: "BETA" C a l i b r a t i o n Data 509 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" HOUSEHOLDS and BASE DATA 0 1 3015 1 61 .199 45 .9 105117329 3 9991 .420118. 7 0 2 6416 1 321 .374 67 .3 1052 2255 4 241 .074 36. 0 0 3 8137 1 51 1 .325 79 .0 1053 4614 4 281 .201 52. 2 0 4 9745 1 181 .403 85 .6 1054 6854 4 1 1 1 .358 62. 2 0 512372 1 541 .341101 .0 1055 8264 4 9991 .420 68. 2 0 61 9300 1 9991 .420128 .2 1056 9322 4 151 .398 73. 8 0 7 282 2 440 .615 1 5 .7 105710330 4 591 .364 79. 4 0 8 1 775 2 630 .992 35 .2 105811526 4 9991 .420 83. 2 0 9 2985 2 51 .190 43 .6 105913116 4 9991 .420 89. 9 010 3868 2 71 .258 49 .5 106014506 4 9991 .420 95. 5 01 1 4826 2 91 .313 55 .3 106116105 4 9991 .420101 . 7 012 5496 2 291 .358 58 .8 106218094 4 9991 .420109. 1 013 5950 2 481 .288 63 .3 106321683 4 9991 .420121. 6 014 6302 2 31 1 .367 63 .6 106431597 4 9991 .420152. 5 015 6666 2 651 .307 67 .3 1065 2003 5 41 .154 39. 7 016 6946 2 581 .355 67 .8 1066 3158 5 271 .220 50. 6 017 7253 2 131 .406 68 .3 1067 4661 5 101 .366 60. 2 018 7667 2 501 .313 73 .0 1068 6235 5 341 .350 72. 1 019 7965 2 661 .305 74 .9 1069 8141 5 521 .337 85. 1 020 8455 2 351 .381 75 .5 107011853 5 61 1 .376105. 0 021 881 7 2 161 .394 77 . 1 107122034 5 9991 .420150. 0 022 9088 2 9991 .420 77 .8 1072 661 6 21 .059 29. 9 023 9293 2 9991 .420 78 .9 1073 1659 6 571 .202 48. 0 024 9568 2 171 .400 80 .8 1074 2762 6 301 .352 60. 9 025 9952 2 9991 .420 82 .2 1075 3531 6 331 .380 69. 8 02610262 2 9991 .420 83 .'7 1076 4549 6 371 .380 81 . 2 02710717 2 9991 .420 85 .9 1077 5647 6 681 .351 93. 6 02810973 2 601 .354 89 .2 1078 6774 6 691 .358104. 1 02911269 2 391 .388 89 .6 1079 8320 6 551 .359117. 7 03011695 2 9991 .420 90 .6 108010102 6 9991 .420129. 0 03112165 2 9991 .420 92 .7 108115624 6 431 .302176. 1 03212832 2 201 .378 97 . 1 1082 1207 7 31 .050 33. 6 03313491 2 9991 .420 98 .7 1083 1805 7 251 .125 41. 0 03414121 2 9991 .420 101 .4 1084 2478 7 261 .220 47. 4 03514825 2 9991 .420104 .4 1085 3354 7 641 .258 55. 9 03615697 2 9991 .420108 . 1 1086 4518 7 121 .353 64. 3 03716628 2 21 1 .406112 .4 1087 5290 7 141 .383 69. 9 03817788 2 9991 .4201 16 .5 1088 6223 7 9991 .420 76. 0 03918595 2 9991 .4201 19 .6 1089 6985 7 671 .338 84. 0 04019756 2 421 .369126 .3 1090 7702 7 9991 .420 86. 4 04121614 2 701 .294137 .0 1091 8801 7 401 .367 95. 4 04224783 2 621 .370144 .6 109210658 7 41 1 .382106. 5 04330694 2 561 .326167 . 1 109312629 7 9991 .420116. 2 04442379 2 221 .372199 .4 109419847 7 9991 .420152. 4 045 3816 3 81 .242 51 .2 1095 1238 8 451 .124 39. 0 046 6855 3 9991 .420 68 .0 1096 1996 8 461 .218 49. 5 047 8255 3 361 .370 77 .4 1097 2732 8 471 .286 57. 8 048 9704 3 381 .369 85 .3 1098 3918 8 491 .349 69. 8 04911148 3 191 .406 91 .5 1099 6250 8 531 .363 91. 9 05012833 3 9991 .420 99 . 1 110013325 8 9991 .420141. 4 F i g u r e A3:13-3 QUEBEC CITY: P o l i c y Dataset 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" DWELLINGS 30 1 18 1 3035 66 2 30 2 31 1 3036 68 2 30 3 35 1 3037 71 2 30 4 39 1 3038 75 2 30 5 42 1 3039 78 2 30 6 44 1 3040 84 2 30 7 46 1 3041 93 2 30 8 48 1 3042 1 1 1 2 30 9 50 1 3043 160 2 301 0 53 1 3044 22 3 301 1 55 1 3045 39 3 301 2 57 1 3046 47 3 301 3 59 1 3047 53 3 3014 61 1 3048 58 3 301 5 64 1 3049 62 3 301 6 67 1 3050 66 3 301 7 70 1 3051 71 3 3018 74 1 3052 76 3 301 9 79 1 3053 81 3 3020 85 1 3054 90 3 3021 97 1 3055 104 3 3022 1 75 1 3056 1 50 3 3023 25 2 3057 46 4 3024 37 2 3058 60 4 3025 41 2 3059 70 4 3026 45 2 3060 79 4 3027 48 2 3061 92 4 3028 50 2 3062 127 4 3029 52 2 3063 38 5 3030 54 2 3064 52 5 3031 56 2 3065 61 5 3032 59 2 3066 68 5 3033 61 2 3067 75 5 3034 64 2 3068 83 5 0000 INCOME by TYPE 0000 ALPHA by 20 1 9852 21 1 . 1235 20 211806 21 2. 1096 20 310005 21 3. 1212 20 412859 21 4. 0982 20 5 8221 21 5. 1 434 20 6 5946 21 6. 2242 20 7 7042 21 7. 1651 20 8 4849 21 8. 2259 3069 3070 92 1 25 5 5 0000 ZONAL DATA 40 1 8249 29 40 2 7183 40 3 7596 40 411210 40 5 7679 40 614238 51 108 1 07 1 10 77 Fi g u r e A3:13-3(cont) QUEBEC CITY: P o l i c y Dataset RENTAL MODEL OWNER-OCCUPIER MODEL CONSTANT 3.3695 1.2008 (35.0) (3.07) BATH 0.3419 na (8.40) TOILET -.2321 0.0049 (3.44) (0.02) SUBSIDIS -.3018 -.0899 (5.06) (1.85) LNLIVING 0.4095 0.1866 (6.81 ) (9.42) LNINCOM 0.0991 0.3116 (8.20) (13.2) TYPE -.0209 -.2397 (1.58) (7.91) LNDIST -.0219 -.0265 (2.86) (2.38) B5160 -.1557 -.0212 (7.37) (0.77) B4650 -.2565 -.0517 (10.4) (1.21) B21 45 -.2626 -.2488 (13.7) (6.88) BPRE20 -.3053 -.3331 (17.3) (8.15) LGLVSIZE 0.0621 0.0076 (4.09) (0.21) LGBDSIZE 0.0400 0.1551 (7.64) (5.61) OPENSP 0.0289 0.0233 (1.80) (0.87) HIGHDEN 0.0300 -.1853 (1.94) (6.73) COMMERC -.0346 na (2.16) NEIGHBD 0.0155 na (0.64) FINANCE -.0486 -.0110 (2.98) (0.35) AMRATE na 0.0846 (15.3) R2 0.43 0.54 Observations 1 558 1 1 50 note: " t " s t a t i s t i c s i n brackets : data source: QUE.REG02 Fi g u r e A3:14-3 QUEBEC CITY: 1971 Hedonic Estimates f o r T r a n s l o g s 512 t r a n s l o g v a r i a b l e s ph*XH M ph*XH ph pg M TYPE 1 mean 499.2 109.0 1 .563 1 .270 0.3062 min 91 .9 38.6 1 .453 1 .270 0.0555 max 2239.2 300.4 1 .671 1 .270 0.9914 TYPE 2 mean 442.2 1 04.8 1 .545 1 .270 0.3047 min 68.3 30.5 1 .404 1 .270 0.0768 max 1554.6 284.4 1 .671 1 .270 0.9978 TYPE 3 mean 713.9 116.8 1 .536 1 .270 0.2111 min 1 27.8 45.0 1 .367 1 .270 0.0481 max 2454.9 331 .8 1 .671 1 .270 0.9160 TYPE 4 mean 547.8 115.4 1 .531 1 .270 0.2533 min 121.8 20.9 1 .404 1 .270 0.0183 max 2049.8 333.4 1 .648 1 .270 0.8746 TYPE 5 mean 757.8 1 19.8 1 .529 1 .270 0. 1780 min 173.2 56.2 1 .382 1 .270 0.0635 max 1 562.4 379. 1 1 .645 1 .270 0.8395 TYPE 6 mean 828.3 231 .8 1.516 1 .270 0.3236 min 1 45. 1 40.2 1 .071 1 .270 0.0495 max 3318.4 783. 1 1 .763 1 .270 0.9432 TYPE 7 mean 734.3 214.0 1 .529 1 .270 0.3411 min 61 .8 50.7 1 .053 1 .270 0.0898 max 1710.5 468.6 1 .774 1 .270 0.8395 TYPE 8 mean 1108. 1 227.9 1 .594 1 .270 0.2213 min 217.6 23.9 1 .095 1 .270 0.0235 max 3518.7 961 .3 1 .820 1 .270 0.8447 TYPE 9 mean 873.6 226.8 1 .700 1 .270 0.2782 min 1 58.5 59.2 1.115 1 .270 0.0577 max 2822.0 768. 1 1 .853 1 .270 0.9900 TYPE 10 mean 1075.3 231 .0 1 .652 1 .270 0.2255 min 264. 1 71.3 1 .096 1 .270 0.0592 max 3098.0 967.9 1 .831 1 .270 0.7917 Fi g u r e A3:15-3 QUEBEC CITY : T r a n s l o g Input V a r i a b l e s S t a t i s t i c s A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 ' MQH MQX ME # 1 -.2444 -.2021 0.1946 -.0870 0.0297 69.6 307.2 499.2 241 (89.7) (18.2) (41.0) (2.83) (4.65) 2 -.2590 -.1866 0.2280 -.0061 0.0695 67.9 265.7 442.2 392 (136.) (17.9) (57.6) (0.19) (13.6) 3 -.1739 -.1127 0.1515 0.1602 -.0672 76.1 470.1 713.9 432 (184.) (21.9) (69.9) (9.15) (18.4) 4 -.2186 -.1071 0.1657 0.2141 -.0688 75.5 340.4 547.8 278 (207.) (20.7) (57.7) (14.8) (14.9) 5 -.1636 -.1034 0.1308 0.1908 -.0949 78.6 502.4 757.8 215 (205.) (21.3) (55.9) (10.8) (22.0) 6 -.2944 -.1825 0.1883 0.0538 -.0132 150.5 469.7 828.3 216 (103.) (20.7) (26.3) (2.03) (1.02) 7 -.3000 -.1827 0.2024 0.0462 -.0233 139.6 409.7 734.3 81 (79.6) (12.6) (17.2) (1.30) (1.32) 8 -.2090 -.1151 0.1346 0.1900 -.1119 141.4 693.1 1108.1 182 (103. ) (18.7) (21.1) (12.1) (10.7) 9 -.2672 -.1590 0.2152 0.1347 0.0511 133.0 509.3 873.6 355 (173.) (21.3) (44.6) (5.87) (7.86) 10 -.2183 -.1165 0.1371 0.2055 -.1154 139.8 664.8 1075.3 316 (172.) (20.2) (29.9) (11.5) (12.1) note: [1] " t " val u e s i n br a c k e t s [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:16-3 QUEBEC CITY : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [ a l l income l e v e l s ] A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BMI BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.3629 -.2136 0.2704 -.0374 0.1202 61.4 145.1 280.6 145 (121.) (14.6) (30.8) (0.99) (9.77) 2 -.3572 -.1309 0.3044 0.1662 0.1614 61.1 147.1 281.3 221 (160.) (9.86) (45.4) (5.22) (18.3) 3 -.2488 -.1185 0.2002 0.1866 -.0083 72.9 285.2 474.6 227 (224.) (17.7) (58.6) (10.7) (1.43) 4 -.2920 -.1340 0.2157 0.1672 -.0046 70.5 216.2 383.2 151 (278.) (29.6) (55.8) (19.5) (0.74) 5 -.2057 -.1158 0.1663 0.1866 -.0537 73.0 349.4 555.3 117 (212.) (17.9) (41.5) (9.80) (8.03) 6 -.3594 -.1672 0.2452 0.1128 0.0747 121.1 265.3 518.3 138 (92.0) (9.15) (14.1) (2.42) (2.43) 7 -.3621 -.1539 0.2477 0.0841 0.0304 115.7 251.3 492.2 42 (61.1) (6.35) (11.6) (1.79) (1.00) 8 -.2184 -.1053 0.1488 0.2621 -.0885 106.6 486.7 787.4 97 (69.7) (6.74) (13.4) (4.33) (5.07) 9 -.2886 -.1337 0.2845 0.1683 0.1331 113.1 382.5 675.5 225 (148.) (12.6) (30.3) (6.36) (11.0) 10 -.2382 -.1306 0.1501 0.1628 -.0960 114.9 484.8 803.9 192 (143.) (13.9) (17.0) (5.73) (5.90) note: [1] " t " values i n bracke t s [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:17-3 QUEBEC CITY : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x penditure Share [below mean income] A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.1564 -.0862 0.0894 0.2783 -.2367 82.1 551.9 829.4 96 (260.) (26.1) (27.0) (16.5) (14.6) 2 -.1830 -.1007 0.0972 0.2342 -.2747 76.8 418.9 650.2 171 (440.) (34.0) (24.8) (16.5) (14.4) . 3 -.1248 -.0646 0.0619 0.3227 -.3449 79.7 674.9 978.8 205 (395.) (27.7) (15.8) (21.4) (11.5) 4 -.1663 -.0725 0.0709 0.3247 -.3529 81.5 488.2 743.5 127 (308.) (19.1) (11.2) (15.2) (10.6) 5 -.1308 -.0788 0.0628 0.2201 -.3532 85.2 685.0 999.6 98 (326.) (23.2) (10.0) (10.1) (8.05) 6 -.2404 -.1395 0.1681 0.1643 -.0404 202.4 831.5 1376.8 78 (73.6) (12.1) (14.5) (3.16) (1.36) 7 -.2634 -.1547 0.2050 0.1717 0.0004 165.4 580.2 995.0 39 (50.1) (5.24) (4.18) (1.39) (0.00) 8 -.1992 -.0876 0.1584 0.3297 0.0064 181.1 928.7 1474.1 85 (79.6) (9.03) (11.0) (7.58) (0.15) 9 -.2398 -.1217 0.1080 0.2226 -.2917 167.6 728.7 1216.6 130 (261.) (21.5) (12.7) (10.1) (9.65) 10 -.1997 -.1057 0.1079 0.2273 -.2434 178.5 943.5 1495.4 124 (107.) (13.4) (5.69) (7.49) (3.04) note: [1] " t " values i n bracke t s [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:18-3 QUEBEC CITY : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [above mean income] A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.4861 -.1593 0.3559 0.0859 0.2319 55.2 75.6 182.6 75 (126.) (5.75) (19.0) (1.52) (9.63) 2 -.4839 -.0773 0.3539 0.2486 0.2387 52.9 74.1 176.1 102 (137.) (2.45) (29.9) (4.16) (15.5) 3 -.3798 -.1508 0.2443 0.1494 0.0501 72.1 149.8 302.2 101 (232.) (13.6) (39.1) (5.78) (5.06) 4 -.4107 -.1512 0.2652 0.1779 0.0646 67.0 120.2 256.6 65 (293.) (6.90) (43.1) (3.84) (6.81) 5 -.2546 -.1216 0.2035 0.2335 -.0014 67.7 246.8 418.0 49 (178.) (7.16) (26.1) (3.76) (0.10) 6 -.4059 -.2025 0.2478 0.0509 0.0573 104.2 182.6 386.8 67 (72.1) (5.79) (8.89) (0.60) (1.16) 7 -.5976 -.3581 0.3435 -.2037 0.1893 104.1 91.6 280.9 16 (100.) (7.12) (14.7) (2.79) (5.59) 8 -.2660 -.1218 0.1932 0.2452 -.0382 98.9 331.3 570.7 44 (44.2) (2.78) (7.88) (1.79) (0.97) 9 -.3413 -.0963 0.3373 0.2786 0.2001 107.3 285.3 543.5 93 (98.5) (5.39) (20.4) (6.36) (9.96) 10 -.2722 -.1249 0.1885 0.1580 -.0554 110.6 375.1 651.5 87 (86.6) (6.66) (10.1) (3.18) (1.80) note: [1] " t " val u e s i n brackets [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:19-3 QUEBEC CITY : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [ q u a r t i l e 01] A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.2787 -.0835 0.2642 0.4225 0.2146 68.1 219.7 385.6 70 (227.) (8.61) (38.2) (12.6) (18.6) 2 -.2850 -.1072 0.2368 0.2967 0.1075 68.0 209.8 371.5 119 (375.) (17.7) (32.7) (15.0) (6.97) 3 -.1860 -.0827 0.1677 0.3290 0.0707 73.4 393.8 612.9 126 (379.) (11.4) (12.9) (7.67) (1.17) 4 -.2371 -.1049 0.2402 0.3112 0.2240 73.1 288.7 478.8 86 (298.) (9.84) (11.6) (6.64) (2.68) 5 -.1798 -.0784 0.1912 0.3542 0.2515 76.8 423.3 654.2 68 (232.) (7.62) (7.58) (6.91) (1.96) 6 -.3254 -.1119 0.3227 0.2489 0.1990 137.1 343.3 642.5 71 (66.3) (5.28) (9.72) (4.20) (4.41) 7 -.2980 -.2054 0.1513 -.1605 -.2133 122.9 349.6 622.3 26 (50.3) (4.38) (1.35) (0.76) (0.59) 8 -.1930 -.0928 0.1288 0.2306 -.2738 113.0 615.7 967.4 53 (81.2) (7.95) (3.14) (4.02) (1.73) 9 -.2563 -.1062 0.2928 0.2105 0.1609 117.1 451.0 768.5 132 (124.) (5.30) (12.8) (3.16) (3.75) 10 -.2151 -.0911 0.2158 0.3292 0.0835 118.4 575.7 930.3 105 (136.) (5.38) (7.86) (3.85) (0.77) note: [1] " t " values i n bracke t s [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:20-3 QUEBEC CITY : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [ q u a r t i l e 02] 518 A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.1928 -.0967 0.1150 0.2929 -.1779 79.8 413.4 650.1 58 (219.) (19.0) (12.4) (14.0) (5.11) 2 -.2046 -.1050 0.1226 0.2429 -.2214 .70.6 335.5 535.2 107 (413.) (23.5) (9.98) (11.3) (3.64) 3 -.1367 -.0633 0.0601 0.3605 -.3770 75.3 571.6 840.8 130 (338.) (16.3) (4.17) (14.6) (3.81) 4 -.1798 -.0874 0.0979 0.2947 -.2607 75.8 413.2 639.6 83 (286.) (11.9) (4.20) (6.87) (2.18) 5 -.1434 -.0955 0.0167 0.1134 -.8032 80.3 577.2 855.1 56 (260.) (15.8) (0.64) (2.64) (4.64) 6 -.2657 -.1247 0.2283 0.1598 0.0197 177.5 618.2 1061.5 48 (52.3) (7.43) (8.32) (2.72) (0.42) 7 -.2703 -.0637 0.4137 0.4056 0.4629 142.7 466.9 811.8 23 (39.5) (0.98) (3.24) (1.69) (1.21) 8 -.1958 -.0535 0.2592 0.3779 0.1713 157.4 807.7 1280.4 53 (58.2) (2.56) (6.26) (3.96) (1.47) 9 -.2480 -.0953 0.2053 0.3388 0.0025 143.7 596.3 1007.6 86 (215.) (6.48) (6.37) (6.05) (0.02) 10 -.1805 -.0865 0.1211 0.3119 -.1444 135.4 812.0 1257.7 74 (81.3) (3.29) (2.27) (2.24) (0.58) note: [1] " t " values i n bracke t s [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:21-3 QUEBEC CITY : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [ q u a r t i l e 03] A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.1215 -.0577 0.0742 0.4031 -.2209 85.6 763.5 1102.9 38 (216.) (16.0) (12.1) (16.2) (4.30) 2 -.1587 -.0763 0.0820 0.3310 -.3143 87.2 558.3 842.6 64 (232.) (14.4) (10.6) (11.6) (7.17) 3 -.1105 -.0681 0.0531 0.2626 -.3725 87.4 854.0 1218.1 75 (266.) (18.9) (9.01) (8.78) (6.97) 4 -.1495 -.0576 0.0732 0.3745 -.2852 92.5 629.7 939.5 44 (166.) (11.7) (6.21) (11.8) (3.56) 5 -.1176 -.0576 0.0622 0.3461 -.3365 91.6 828.8 1192.4 42 (234.) (12.4) (2.39) (11.2) (1.57) 6 -.2103 -.1347 0.1158 0.1639 -.2886 242.31172.7 1881.3 30 (61.6) (10.4) (3.50) (2.08) (1.99) 7 -.2567 -.1968 0.2685 -.0987 0.0813 198.1 743.1 1258.4 16 (28.4) (3.18) (2.41) (0.39) (0.20) 8 -.2008 -.0857 0.1593 0.3693 -.0033 220.21129.2 1795.1 32 (60.6) (6.42) (2.03) (3.98) (0.01) 9 -.2295 -.1172 0.0823 0.2053 -.3849 214.2 987.6 1625.0 44 (175.) (21.9) (4.19) (8.92) (4.98) 10 -.2176 -.1074 0.1211 0.2340 -.2238 242.41138.2 1847.3 50 (59.4) (6.10) (2.79) (2.43) (1.29) note: [1] " t " values i n brackets [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:22-3 QUEBEC CITY : D i r e c t T ranslog-Expenditure Share [ q u a r t i l e 04] 520 income e l a s t i c i ty mean below above TYPE 1 Q01 0.6974 0.7009 0.7054 Q02 0.4925 0..6176 0.6251 Q03 0.3811 0.4047 0.4065 Q04 0.2519 0.2931 0.3043 TYPE 2 Q01 0.7152 0.7383 0.7476 Q02 0.5045 0.5529 0.5537 Q03 0.4103 0.4052 0.4040 Q04 0.3469 0.3470 0.3470 TYPE 3 Q01 0.6118 0.6203 0.6197 Q02 0.3583 0.3995 0.3949 Q03 0.3099 0.3087 0.3085 Q04 0.2494 0.2399 0.2383 TYPE 4 Q01 0.6662 0.6780 0.6808 Q02 0.4403 0.4833 0.5072 Q03 0.3735 0.3747 0.3749 Q04 0.3151 0.3253 0.3301 TYPE 5 Q01 0.4766 0.4841 0.4889 Q02 0.3520 0.3822 0.4115 Q03 0.3236 0.2730 0.2593 Q04 0.2662 0.2647 0.2643 TYPE 6 Q01 0.6323 0.6359 0.6389 Q02 0.5591 0.5831 0.5735 Q03 0.4724 0.4613 0.4596 Q04 0.4465 0.4087 0.4017 TYPE 7 Q01 0.7905 0.7907 0.7925 Q02 0.4896 0.4313 0.4276 Q03 0.5103 0.5579 0.5635 Q04 0.4489 0.4096 0.4074 TYPE 8 Q01 0.4962 0.5095 0.5096 Q02 0.3836 0.3710 0.3635 Q03 0.3905 0.3985 0.3933 Q04 0.3905 0.4314 0.4905 TYPE 9 Q01 0.5881 0.6039 0.6010 Q02 0.4595 0.4549 0.4556 Q03 0.4891 0.5089 0.5195 Q04 0.4721 0.4443 0.4213 TYPE 10 Q01 0.4718 0.4690 0.4676 Q02 0.4366 0.4547 0.4503 Q03 0.3696 0.3830 0.3855 Q04 0.4277 0.4210 0.4182 p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y mean below above 1 .0433 -1.6021 -0.7614 1 .0050 -1.2331 -0.8478 0 .9947 -1.1724 -0.8517 0 .9966 -1.1998 -0.7080 1 .0457 -2.0060 -0.6967 1 .0184 -1.1851 -0.9085 1 .0151 -1.1662 -0.8724 1 .0038 -1.2585 -0.7109 1 .0238 -1.5770 -0.7188 1 .0163 -1.1354 -0.9289 0 .9997 -1.1262 -0.8950 1 .0004 -1.1881 -0.7891 1 .0172 -1.5317 -0.6883 1 .01 34 -1.1610 -0.8816 1 .0055 -1 .1225 -0.9091 -1 .0054 -1.2086 -0.7377 •1 .0302 -1.5548 -0.8021 •1 .0088 -1.1916 -0.8866 •1 .0257 -1.1488 -0.9056 -1 .0058 -1.1362 -0.8970 -1 .001 8 -1.6072 -0.7813 -1 .0660 -1.1681 -0.9597 •1 .0731 -1.301 5 -0.8750 -0 .9983 -1.3247 -0.6026 -0 .9857 -2.5836 -0.5039 -1 .0886 -1.3195 -0.9382 -1 . 1 369 -1.2502 -1.0166 -1 .1031 -1.3200 -0.8446 -1 .01 66 -1.6363 -0.7835 -1 .0545 -1.2431 -0.9371 -1 . 1 224 -1.1142 -1 .1757 -0 .9949 -1.2806 -0.6776 -1 .091 5 -1.6048 -0.9220 -1 . 1 1 93 -1.2169 -1.0191 -1 .0263 -1.1753 -0.8938 -1 .0082 -1.4038 -0.7437 -1 .0544 -1.4518 -0.8779 -1 .0407 -1.1107 -0.9691 -1 .0052 -1.1080 -0.8972 -1 .0086 -1.2176 -0.7150 F i g u r e A3:23-3 QUEBEC CITY : Income and P r i c e E l a s t i c i t i e s 521 ALL BELOW ABOVE Q01 Q02 Q03 Q04 TYPE 1 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 445.02 422.47 45. 1 1 294.75 225.79 137.92 370.32 244.77 251.09 162.62 108.07 109.08 232.32 164.98 134.67 222.22 155.55 133.36 177.81 138.55 78.53 TYPE 2 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 755.83 654.75 202.17 465.36 314.23 302.25 673.61 527.48 292.25 215.60 121.22 188.76 420.81 345.77 150.08 427.93 342.30 171.25 258.27 211.11 94.33 TYPE 3 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 1112.95 962.07 301.77 631.37 576.94 108.86 858.81 720.09 277.44 292.70 275.84 33.71 483.08 362.25 241.66 538.96 465.13 147.66 324.64 257.56 134. 17 TYPE 4 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 748.91 620.34 257.13 459.87 424.20 71 .33 481.33 343.00 276.65 212.44 191.97 40.95 310.91 254.14 113.54 321.46 270.96 1 00.99 168.24 119.16 98. 1 5 TYPE 5 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 663.22 539.67 247. 10 376.50 320.43 112.15 409.40 312.08 194.63 161.44 149.04 24.81 254.42 194.69 119.47 234.48 181.44 106.09 190.41 161.95 56.92 TYPE 6 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i st i c 407.76 403.16 9.21 254.59 251.20 6.77 1 78. 1 0 163.83 28.55 125.10 124.37 1 .47 141.44 130.05 22.79 104.84 100.66 8.37 85.82 77. 18 17.28 TYPE 7 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 170.38 169.25 2.27 87.48 85.20 4.55 88.92 87.89 2.06 42.25 32.51 19.48 58.91 58.46 0.89 54. 40 52.83 3.13 38.70 38.63 0.14 TYPE 8 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 411.43 342.63 137.59 210.45 186.01 48.87 211.99 166.26 91 .46 86.48 82.78 7.41 146.52 130.41 32.22 131.35 111.93 38.84 87.87 71 .85 32.04 TYPE 9 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 781.92 735.72 92.39 501.38 426.28 150.20 435.77 374.95 121.66 204.70 152.10 105.19 332.81 326.11 13.40 286.58 260.31 52.54 157.41 130.04 54.75 TYPE 10 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 793.16 710.38 165.57 475. 10 443.72 62.76 326.90 282. 13 89.55 200.23 193.01 14.43 303.91 283.83 40. 16 206.46 1 93.95 25.03 123.82 104.82 38.00 F i g u r e A3:24-3 QUEBEC CITY Log L i k e l i h o o d [ t e s t of u n i t y V a l u e s : income e l a s t i c i t y ] 0000 Demand C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL" MODIFIED HOUSEHOLDS 0 1 1 339 1 -588 0 1051 4145 5 1274 359 0 2 2057 1 230 21 1052 6021 5 3528 746 0 3 2401 1 -32 93 1053 6997 5 4245 913 0 4 3341 1 603 146 1054 8008 5 5355 1 199 0 5 4377 1 1 388 271 1055 8933 5 6499 1 536 0 6 5788 1 3277 753 105610198 5 8245 1989 0 7 7721 1 5082 1 194 105712277 511336 31 17 0 812408 1 10567 3190 105815037 515297 4766 0 9 646 2 -464 0 1059 3281 6 222 1 04 010 1 370 2 186 18 1060 5200 6 917 266 01 1 1 645 2 534 128 1061 6782 6 2357 536 012 21 26 2 1 041 244 1062 8285 6 4625 1113 013 2795 2 1 729 347 106311993 6 7430 2079 014 3606 2 2377 470 106420648 622314 9839 015 4079 2 301 5 627 1065 4314 7 1801 405 016 4567 2 3786 800 1066 8536 7 6489 1682 017 4920 2 4062 886 106714213 714510 5739 018 5407 2 491 3 1 1 37 1068 5502 8 2362 549 019 5859 2 5436 1 297 1069 9232 8 6660 1 631 020 6381 2 5769 1413 107011682 8 9741 2362 021 7234 2 6397 1 628 107113176 811800 3288 022 8434 2 8655 2492 107215277 813260 3674 02311718 21 4551 5666 107317665 816736 5189 024 2259 3 125 69 107423524 8263621 071 2 025 31 47 3 1 004 207 1075 1735 9-1644 5 026 4169 3 21 56 443 1076 5285 9 1780 360 027 5575 3 3833 787 1077 6884 9 3382 724 028 641 6 3 4861 1 071 1078 7688 9 4256 939 029 6991 3 5365 1 188 1079 8286 9 5312 1262 030 7613 3 621 4 1 391 1080 8679 9 5930 1464 031 8114 3 6681 1 477 1081 9215 9 6195 1 565 032 8529 3 721 1 1 653 1082 9895 9 7201 1913 033 9081 3 7697 1 687 108310467 9 7500 2041 034 9770 3 8602 2006 108411180 9 8588 2458 03510555 3 9748 2404 108512319 910337 3238 03611436 31 0797 2681 108613645 912460 4296 03712428 312044 3161 108716533 917890 7539 0381 6825 319089 6368 108822712 93092516426 039 1 173 4 -307 23 1089 6025 10 2042 521 040 2669 4 563 1 42 1090 8261 10 4411 1066 041 3654 4 921 214 1091 9206 10 5642 1365 042 4713 4 2489 515 109210143 10 6808 1630 043 5388 4 3026 615 109310900 10 7763 1932 044 5833 4 3182 654 109411517 10 8738 2300 045 6376 4 3933 840 109512786 10 9806 2701 046 6994 4 491 2 1 1 44 109614194 1 012538 3821 047 7697 4 5570 1 340 109715281 1013276 4024 048 8241 4 6193 1 550 109817514 1016351 4986 049 9442 4 8063 2248 109920116 1020076 7476 05012987 414497 5735 11 026169 103124415557 F i g u r e A3:25-3 QUEBEC CITY: Demand C a l i b r a t i o n Data 0000 Demand C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 Mean AFTER TAX INCOME by 20 1182.6385.6650.11103. 20 2176.1371.5535.2842.6 20 3302.2612.9840.81218. 20 4256.6478.8639.6939.5 20 5418.0654.2855.11192. Household TYPE 20 6386.8642.51062.1881 20 7280.9622.3811 .81258 20 8570.7967.41280.1795 20 9543.5768.51008.1625 2010651.5930.31258.1847 0000 Demand PARAMETERS by TYPE 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 01) 21 1 o - .486- .159. 3559. 0859. 231955. 1775. 56182.61 .567 21 2 o - .484- .077. 3539. 2486. 238752. 9574. 06176.11 .550 21 3 0- .380- .151. 2443. 1 494. 050172. 14149 .8302.21 .552 21 4 0- .411- .151. 2652. 1 779. 064667. 03120 .2256.61 .551 21 5 0- .255- .122. 2035. 2335- .00167. 67246 .8418.01 .545 21 6 o - .406- .203. 2478. 0509. 0573104 .2182 .6386.81 .484 21 7 o - .598- .358. 3435- .204. 1893104 .191. 55280.91 .577 21 8 0- .266- .122. 1 932. 2452- .03898. 87331 .3570.71 .508 21 9 o - .341- .096. 3373. 2786. 2001107 .3285 .3543.51 .682 2110 0- .272- .125. 1885. 1 580-.055110 .6375 .1651.51 .605 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 02) 22 1 o - .279- .084. 2642. 4225. 214668. 11219 .7385.61 .563 22 2 0- .285- .107. 2368. 2967. 107568. 01 209 .8371.51 .547 22 3 0- .186- .083. 1677. 3290. 070773. 44393 .8612.91 .538 22 4 0- .237- .105. 2402. 3112. 224073. 12288 .7478.81 .536 22 5 0- .180- .078. 1912. 3542. 251576. 83423 .3654.21 .521 22 6 0- .325- .112. 3227. 2489. 1990137 . 1 343 .3642.51 .490 22 7 o - .298- .205. 1513- .161- .213122 .9349 .6622.31 .468 22 8 0- .193- .093. 1 288. 2306- .274113 .061 5 .7967.41 .638 22 9 0- .256- .106. 2928. 21 05. 1609117 . 1451 .0768.51 .676 2210 0- .215- .091 . 21 58. 3292. 0835118 .4575 .7930.31 .679 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 03) 23 1 o - . 1 93-.097. 1 1 50. 2929- .17879. 7941 3 .4650.11 .562 23 2 0- .205- . 1 05. 1 226. 2429- .22170. 58335 .5535.21 .546 23 3 o - . 1 37-.063. 0601 . 3605- .37775. 25571 .6840.81 .529 23 4 0- .180- .087. 0979. 2947- .26175. 7541 3 .2639.61 .518 23 5 o - . 1 43-.095. 0167. 1 1 34-.80380. 33577 .2855.11 .524 23 6 0- .266- .125. 2283. 1598. 0197177 .5618 .21062.1 .560 23 7 0- .270- .064. 4137. 4056. 4629142 .7466 .9811 .81 .519 23 8 0- . 1 96-.053. 2592. 3779. 1713157 .4807 .71280.1 .602 23 9 0^ .248- .095. 2053. 3388. 0025143 .7596 .31008. 1 .742 2310 0- .181- .087. 1211. 31 19-.144135 .4812 .01258.1 .672 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 04) 24 1 0- . 1 22-.058. 0742. 4031- .22185. 61 763 .51103.1 .556 24 2 o - .159- .076. 0820. 3310- .31487. 23558 .3842.61 .534 24 3 o - .110- .068. 0531 . 2626- .37387. 41854 .01218.1 .525 24 4 0- . 1 49-.058. 0732. 3745- .28592. 47629 .7939.51 .516 24 5 o - .118- .058. 0622. 3461- .33791 . 65828 .81192. .530 24 6 o - .210- . 1 35. 1 1 58. 1639- .289242 .31173.1881. .579 24 7 0- .257- .197. 2685- .099. 0813198 . 1 743 .11258. .594 24 8 o - .201- .086. 1 593. 3693- .003220 .21129.1795. .625 24 9 0- .229- .117. 0823. 2053- .385214 .2987 .61625. .730 2410 o - .218- .107. 1211. 2340- .224242 .41138.1847. .647 F i g u r e A3:25-3(cont) QUEBEC CITY: Demand C a l i b r a t i o n Data 524 0000 Demand C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL" DWELLINGS 30 1 36 1 1 3035 43 3 1 30 2 56 1 1 3036 58 3 1 30 3 60 1 1 3037 65 3 1 30 4 63 1 1 3038 70 3 1 30 5 67 1 1 3039 75 3 1 30 6 70 1 1 3040 81 3 1 30 7 73 1 1 3041 86 3 1 30 8 76 1 1 3042 93 3 1 30 9 79 1 1 3043 99 3 1 301 0 82 1 1 3044 1 05 3 1 301 1 85 1 1 3045 1 10 3 1 3012 91 1 1 3046 1 16 3 1 301 3 98 1 1 3047 141 3 1 301 4 1 10 1 1 3048 58 4 1 301 5 1 44 1 1 3049 74 4 1 301 6 43 2 1 3050 81 4 1 301 7 53 2 1 3051 86 4 1 3018 56 2 1 3052 92 4 1 3019 59 2 1 3053 100 4 1 3020 62 2 1 3054 1 19 4 1 3021 65 2 1 3055 54 5 1 3022 68 2 1 3056 77 5 1 3023 71 2 1 3057 93 5 1 3024 73 2 1 3058 1 1 4 5 1 3025 76 2 1 3059 58 1 2 3026 79 2 1 3060 85 1 2 3027 81 2 1 3061 1 02 1 2 3028 84 2 1 3062 1 19 1 2 3029 87 2 1 ' 3063 1 57 1 2 3030 90 2 1 3064 79 2 2 3031 94 2 1 3065 1 00 2 2 3032 97 2 1 3066 1 12 2 2 3033 1 05 2 1 3067 1 23 2 2 3034 1 34 2 1 3068 1 36 2 2 0000 ZONAL Data 40 1 8249 29 40 2 7183 51 40 411210 1 07 40 5 7679 1 10 0000 Parameters 501 1 .41 50121 .13 501 6 .41 50171 .20 50201 .270 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n Data 70 1 1 .4280 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 21 .6040 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 31 .4620 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 41 .4200 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 51 .5030 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 60 .0 0 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 3069 166 2 2 3070 57 3 2 3071 89 3 2 3072 103 3 2 3073 116 3 2 3074 123 3 2 3075 128 3 2 3076 134 3 2 3077 1 39 3 2 3078 1 45 3 2 3079 149 3 2 3080 154 3 2 3081 158 3 2 3082 162 3 2 3083 166 3 2 3084 173 3 2 3085 181 3 2 3086 191 3 2 3087 224 3 2 3088 90 4 2 3089 1 1 6 4 2 3090 127 4 2 3091 1 35 4 2 3092 1 44 4 2 3093 159 4 2 3094 183 4 2 3095 90 5 2 3096 1 33 5 2 3097 151 5 2 3098 1 66 5 2 3099 182 5 2 31 0 218 5 2 40 3 7596 108 40 614238 77 501 3 0.0 501 8 0.0. 0.0 75781 .000 85. 0.0 9761 1 .000 87. 0.0 96251 .000120. 0.0 132731 .000111 . 0.0 102861 .000127. 0.0 00 .0 0. F i g u r e A3:25-3(cont) QUEBEC CITY: Demand C a l i b r a t i o n Data 0000 Supply C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL" MODIFIED HOUSEHOLDS 10 1 1339 1 -588 0 1051 4145 5 1274 359 10 2 2057 1 230 21 1052 6021 5 3528 746 10 3 2401 1 -32 93 1053 6997 5 4245 913 10 4 3341 1 603 146 1054 8008 5 5355 1 199 10 5 4377 1 1388 271 1055 8933 5 6499 1536 10 6 5788 1 3277 753 105610198 5 8245 1989 10 7 7721 1 5082 1 1 94 105712277 511336 3117 10 812408 110567 31 90 105815037 515297 4766 10 9 646 2 -464 0 1059 3281 6 222 1 04 1010 1370 2 186 18 1060 5200 6 917 266 1011 1645 2 534 128 1061 6782 6 2357 536 1012 2126 2 1 041 244 1062 8285 6 4625 1113 1013 2795 2 1 729 347 106311993 6 7430 2079 1014 3606 2 2377 470 106420648 622314 9839 1015 4079 2 3015 627 1065 4314 7 1801 405 1016 4567 2 3786 800 1066 8536 7 6489 1 682 1017 4920 2 4062 886 106714213 714510 5739 1018 5407 2 4913 1 1 37 1068 5502 8 2362 549 1019 5859 2 5436 1 297 1069 9232 8 6660 1 631 1020 6381 2 5769 1413 107011682 8 9741 2362 1021 7234 2 6397 1628 107113176 811800 3288 1022 8434 2 8655 2492 107215277 813260 3674 102311718 214551 5666 107317665 816736 5189 1024 2259 3 125 69 107423524 8263621 071 2 1025 3147 3 1 004 207 1075 1735 9-1644 5 1026 4169 3 21 56 443 1076 5285 9 1780 360 1027 5575 3 3833 787 1077 6884 9 3382 724 1028 6416 3 4861 1071 1078 7688 9 4256 939 1029 6991 3 5365 1 188 1079 8286 9 5312 1 262 1030 7613 3 621 4 1391 1080 8679 9 5930 1 464 1031 8114 3 6681 1 477 1081 9215 9 6195 1 565 1032 8529 3 721 1 1653 1082 9895 9 7201 1913 1033 9081 3 7697 1687 108310467 9 7500 2041 1034 9770 3 8602 2006 108411180 9 8588 2458 103510555 3 9748 2404 108512319 910337 3238 103611436 310797 2681 108613645 912460 4296 103712428 312044 3161 108716533 917890 7539 103816825 3 19089 6368 108822712 93092516426 1039 1173 4 -307 23 1089 6025 10 2042 521 1040 2669 4 563 1 42 1090 8261 10 4411 1 066 1041 3654 4 921 214 1091 9206 10 5642 1 365 1042 4713 4 2489 515 109210143 10 6808 1 630 1043 5388 4 3026 615 109310900 10 7763 1 932 1044 5833 4 3182 654 109411517 10 8738 2300 1045 6376 4 3933 840 109512786 10 9806 2701 1046 6994 4 491 2 1 1 44 109614194 1012538 3821 1047 7697 4 5570 1340 109715281 1013276 4024 1048 8241 4 6193 1550 109817514 1016351 4986 1049 9442 4 8063 2248 109920116 1020076 7476 105012987 414497 5735 11 026169 103124415557 F i g u r e A3:26-3 QUEBEC CITY: Supply C a l i b r a t i o n Data 0000 Supply C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 Mean AFTER TAX INCOME by Household TYPE 20 1182.6385.6650.11103. 20 6386.8642, 20 2176.1371 ..5535.2842.6 20 7280.9622 20 3302.2612.9840.81218. 20 8570.7967 20 4256.6478.8639.6939.5 20 9543.5768 20 5418.0654.2855.11192. 2010651.5930 0000 Demand PARAMETERS by TYPE 51062.1881 3811.81258 41280.1795 51008.1625 31258.1847 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 01) 21 1 o - .486- .159. 3559. 0859. 231955. 1775.56182. 61 .567 21 2 0- .484- .077. 3539. 2486. 238752. 9574.06176. 1 1 .550 21 3 o - .380- .151. 2443. 1 494. 050172. 14149. 8302. 21 .552 21 4 0- .411- .151. 2652. 1779. 064667. 03120. 2256. 61 .551 21 5 0- .255- . 1 22. 2035. 2335- .00167. 67246. 8418. 01 .545 21 6 0- .406- .203. 2478. 0509. 0573104 .2182. 6386. 81 .484 21 7 o - . 598-.358. 3435- .204. 1893104 .191.55280. 91 .577 21 8 0- .266- .122. 1 932. 2452- .03898. 87331. 3570. 71 .508 21 9 0- .341- .096. 3373. 2786. 2001107 .3285. 3543. 51 .682 2110 0- .272- .125. 1885. 1 580- .055110 .6375. 1 651 . 51 .605 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 02) 22 1 o - .279- .084. 2642. 4225. 214668. 11219. 7385. 61 .563 22 2 0- .285- .107. 2368. 2967. 107568. 01209. 8371 . 51 .547 22 3 0- . 186-.083. 1 677. 3290. 070773. 44393. 861 2. 91 .538 22 4 o - .237- .105. 2402. 3112. 224073. 12288. 7478. 81 .536 22 5 0- . 180-.078. 1912. 3542. 251576. 83423. 3654. 21 .521 22 6 0- .325- .112. 3227. 2489. 1990137 .1343. 3642. 51 .490 22 7 o - .298- .205. 1513- .161- .213122 .9349. 6622. 31 .468 22 8 o - . 1 93-.093. 1288. 2306- .274113 .0615. 7967. 41 .638 22 9 o - .256- .106. 2928. 21 05. 1609117 .1451. 0768. 51 .676 221 0 0- .215- .091 . 2158. 3292. 0835118 .4575. 7930. 31 .679 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 03) 23 1 o - . 1 93-.097. 1 1 50. 2929- .17879. 79413. 4650. 1 1 .562 23 2 0- .205- .105. 1 226. 2429- .22170. 58335. 5535. 21 .546 23 3 o - . 1 37-.063. 0601 . 3605- .37775. 25571 . 6840. 81 .529 23 4 0- .180- .087. 0979. 2947- .26175. 75413. 2639. 61 .518 23 5 o - . 1 43-.095. 01 67. 1 1 34-.80380. 33577. 2855. 1 1 .524 23 6 0- .266- .125. 2283. 1598. 0197177 .5618. 21062 • .560 23 7 0- .270- .064. 41 37. 4056. 4629142 .7466. 981 1 . 81 .519 23 8 o - . 1 96-.053. 2592. 3779. 1713157 .4807. 71280 • .602 23 9 0- .248- .095. 2053. 3388. 0025143 .7596. 31 008 • .742 231 0 o - .181- .087. 1211. 3119- .144135 .4812. 01258 • .672 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 04) 24 1 0- . 1 22-.058. 0742. 4031 - .22185. 61763. 51103 • .556 24 2 o - . 1 59-.076. 0820. 3310- .31487. 23558. 3842. 61 .534 24 3 o - .110- .068. 0531 . 2626- .37387. 41854. 01218 • .525 24 4 o - . 1 49-.058. 0732. 3745- .28592. 47629. 7939. 51 .516 24 5 o - .118- .058. 0622. 3461 - .33791. 65828. 81 1 92 .530 24 6 o - .210- . 1 35. 1 1 58. 1 639- .289242 .31173 . 1 881 • .579 24 7 o - .257- .197. 2685- .099. 0813198 .1743. 1 1 258 .594 24 8 0- .201- .086. 1593. 3693- .003220 .21129 . 1 795 • .625 24 9 o - .229- .117. 0823. 2053- .385214 .2987. 61 625 • .730 2410 o - .218- .107. 1211. 2340- .224242 .41138 .1847 .647 Figu r e A3:26-3(cont) QUEBEC CITY: Supply C a l i b r a t i o n Data 527 0000 Supply C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL" DWELLINGS 30 1 25 1 1 3025 65 2 1 3049 84 2 2 30 2 37 1 1 3026 68 2 1 3050 92 2 2 30 3 41 1 1 3027 72 2 1 3051 99 2 2 30 4 45 1 1 3028 75 2 1 3052 108 2 2 30 5 47 1 1 3029 79 2 1 3053 139 2 2 30 6 50 1 1 3030 86 2 1 3054 72 3 2 30 7 53 1 1 3031 1 17 2 1 3055 109 3 2 30 8 56 1 1 3032 39 3 1 3056 1 22 3 2 30 9 58 1 1 3033 57 3 1 3057 1 30 3 2 3010 61 1 1 3034 68 3 1 3058 1 39 3 2 301 1 64 1 1 3035 79 3 1 3059 1 49 3 2 3012 67 1 1 3036 108 3 1 3060 1 62 3 2 301 3 71 1 1 3037 62 4 1 3061 192 3 2 301 4 76 1 1 3038 94 4 1 3062 1 1 3 4 2 3015 83 1 1 3039 53 5 1 3063 1 33 4 2 3016 109 1 1 3040 74 5 1 3064 147 4 2 3017 33 2 1 3041 1 03 5 1 3065 187 4 2 3018 44 2 1 3042 55 1 2 3066 94 5 2 301 9 48 2 1 3043 81 1 2 3067 1 1 7 5 2 3020 52 2 1 3044 99 1 2 3068 1 29 5 2 3021 54 2 1 3045 1 1 0 1 2 3069 1 37 5 2 3022 57 2 1 3046 124 1 2 3070 160 5 2 3023 59 2 1 3047 157 1 2 3024 62 2 1 3048 61 2 2 0000 ZONAL Data 40 1 8249 29 40 2 7183 51 40 3 7596 108 40 411210 1 07 40 5 7679 110 40 614238 77 0000 Parameters 50 1 . 1 50 2 . 1 501 1 .41 50121 .13 501 3 46. 5016 .41 50171 .20 5018 80. 50201 .270 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n Data 70 1 1 .3570 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 72890 .987 86. 70 21 .5480 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97521 .000 83. 70 31 .4720 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 95071 .000 94. 70 41 .5180 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 128551 .000 93. 70 51 .5400 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 109880 .658 92. 70 61 .6890 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 101931 .000100. 70 71 .6320 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 81 1 00 .865112. 70 81 .7840 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 97180 .924105. 70 91 .61 50 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 94441 .000138. 701 02 .0510 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 153351 .000108. 70111 .6660 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 96540 .623136. 701 21 .4160 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1 04391 .000161. F i g u r e A3:26-3(cont) QUEBEC CITY: Supply C a l i b r a t i o n Data 528 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" MODIFIED HOUSEHOLDS and BASE Data 0 1 1339 1 -587 0 31 .384 41 . 2 0 2 2057 1 230 21 191 .518 55. 6 0 3 2401 1 -31 93 391 .527 62. 0 0 4 3341 1 603 1 46 231 .546 70. 3 0 5 4377 1 1388 271 91 .561 70. 2 0 6 5788 1 3277 753 271 .500 82. 0 0 7 7721 1 5082 1 1 94 141 .499 86. 5 0 812408 110567 31 90 41 1 .406106. 3 0 9 646 2 -463 0 1 1 .276 22. 0 010 1370 2 186 18 181 .357 42. 9 011 1645 2 534 1 28 41 .432 47. 8 012 2126 2 1 041 244 61 .506 57. 4 013 2795 2 1 729 347 21 1 .543 64. 4 014 3606 2 2377 470 221 .555 68. 8 015 4079 2 3015 627 331 .557 68. 9 016 4567 2 3786 800 9991 .694 59. 1 017 4920 2 4062 886 9991 .694 60. 4 018 5407 2 4913 1 1 37 9991 .694 61 . 3 019 5859 2 5436 1 297 241 .531 73. 1 020 6381 2 5769 1413 9991 .694 60. 4 021 7234 2 6397 1628 1 1 1 .541 76. 3 022 8434 2 8655 2492 401 .506 85. 3 02311718 214551 5666 31 1 .395119. 8 024 2259 3 1 25 69 51 .452 51 . 0 025 3147 3 1 004 207 81 .528 65. 8 026 4169 3 2156 443 131 .51 1 82. 0 027 5575 3 3833 787 301 .447 93. 1 028 6416 3 4861 1 071 281 .497 85. 6 029 6991 3 5365 1 188 261 .519 79. 4 030 7613 3 6214 1 391 9991 .694 62. 7 031 8114 3 6681 1477 9991 .694 63. 5 032 8529 3 721 1 1 653 9991 .694 63. 7 033 9081 3 7697 1 687 9991 .694 63. 7 034 9770 3 8602 2006 9991 .694 62. 9 03510555 3 9748 2404 9991 .694 63. 7 03611436 31 0797 2681 341 .528 80. 4 03712428 312044 3161 291 .477 88. 6 03816825 31 9089 6368 161 .421 115. 2 039 1173 4 -306 23 321 .281 34. 6 040 2669 4 563 1 42 71 .512 61 . 3 041 3654 4 921 214 101 .550 73. 3 042 4713 4 2489 515 121 .527 78. 8 043 5388 4 3026 615 251 .529 76. 7 044 5833 4 3182 654 9991 .694 62. 2 045 6376 4 3933 840 9991 .694 63. 1 046 6994 4 491 2 1 1 44 9991 .694 63. 2 047 7697 4 5570 1 340 9991 .694 62. 2 048 8241 4 6193 1 550 9991 .694 64. 9 049 9442 4 8063 2248 351 .481 89. 2 05012987 414497 5735 361 .439116. 5 F i g u r e A3:27-3 QUEBEC CITY: MODIFIED P o l i c y Dataset 529 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" MODIFIED HOUSEHOLDS and BASE Data 1051 4145 5 1274 359 201 .504 59 .7 1052 6021 5 3528 746 9991 .694 62 .8 1053 6997 5 4245 913 9991 .694 64 .2 1054 8008 5 5355 1 199 9991 .694 64 .0 1055 8933 5 6499 1 536 371 .565 76 .0 105610198 5 8245 1989 9991 .694 66 .2 105712277 511336 31 17 151 .476 93 .0 105815037 515297 4766 381 .467104 .3 1059 3281 6 222 1 04 481 .495 73 .9 1060 5200 6 917 266 9991 .771 86 .3 1061 6782 6 2357 536 9991 .771100 .3 1062 8285 6 4625 1113 9991 .771 1 1 1 .6 106311993 6 7430 2079 9991 .771142 . 1 1 06420648 622314 9839 9991 .771195 .4 1065 4314 7 1801 405 9991 .771101 .5 1066 8536 7 6489 1682 9991 .771103 .0 106714213 714510 5739 641 .605189 .3 1068 5502 8 2362 549 541 .469 84 .6 1069 9232 8 6660 1 631 9991 .771 91 .3 107011682 8 9741 2362 9991 .771100 .2 107113176 811800 3288 671 .549142 . 1 1 07215277 813260 3674 571 .568161 .4 107317665 816736 5189 581 .619179 .2 1 07423524 8263621 071 2 61 1 .614245 .4 1075 1735 9-1643 5 421 .213 48 . 1 1076 5285 9 1780 360 491 .555100 .8 1077 6884 9 3382 724 501 .635117 .4 1078 7688 9 4256 939 661 .640120 .5 1079 8286 9 5312 1262 441 .616124 .7 1080 8679 9 5930 1464 521 .568131 . 1 1081 9215 9 6195 1 565 51 1 .615124 .6 1082 9895 9 7201 1913 621 .582138 . 1 108310467 9 7500 2041 461 .564148 .9 108411180 9 8588 2458 691 .548161 .8 108512319 910337 3238 631 .620164 .9 108613645 912460 4296 471 .576188 .5 108716533 917890 7539 701 .654203 .8 108822712 93092516426 651 .727251 .2 1089 6025 10 2042 521 431 .499 94 .9 1090 8261 10 4411 1066 9991 .771 96 .8 1091 9206 10 5642 1 365 9991 .771101 .8 109210143 10 6808 1 630 9991 .771105 .6 109310900 10 7763 1 932 451 .566133 .5 109411517 10 8738 2300 551 .584134 .0 109512786 10 9806 2701 561 .551146 .2 109614194 1012538 3821 681 .544153 .8 109715281 1013276 4024 531 .524163 .2 109817514 1016351 4986 591 .587184 .4 109920116 1020076 7476 601 .650210 .9 11 026169 103124415557 999 .771254 .3 F i g u r e A3:27-3 QUEBEC CITY: MODIFIED P o l i c y Dataset 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 Mean AFTER TAX INCOME by 20 1182.6385.6650.11103. 20 2176.1371.5535.2842.6 20 3302.2612.9840.81218. 20 4256.6478.8639.6939.5 20 5418.0654.2855.11192. Household TYPE 20 6386.8642.51062.1881 20 7280.9622.3811.81258 20 8570.7967.41280.1795 20 9543.5768.51008.1625 2010651.5930.31258.1847 0000 Demand PARAMETERS by TYPE 0000 (quart i l e 01) 21 1 o - .486- . 1 59. 3559. 0859. 231955. 1775.56182. 61 .567 21 2 0- .484- .077. 3539. 2486. 238752. 9574.06176. 1 1 .550 21 3 0- .380- .151. 2443. 1 494. 050172. 14149. 8302. 21 .552 21 4 o - .411- . 151 . 2652. 1 779. 064667. 03120. 2256. 61 .551 21 5 0- .255- .122. 2035. 2335- .00167. 67246. 8418. 01 .545 21 6 0- .406- .203. 2478. 0509. 0573104 .2182. 6386. 81 .484 21 7 o - .598- .358. 3435- .204. 1 893104 .191.55280. 91 .577 21 8 o - .266- . 1 22. 1932. 2452- .03898. 87331. 3570. 71 .508 21 9 o - .341- .096. 3373. 2786. 2001107 .3285. 3543. 51 .682 2110 o - .272- .125. 1885. 1 580- .0551 1 0 .6375. 1 651 . 51 .605 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 02) 22 1 o - .279- .084. 2642. 4225. 214668. 11219. 7385. 61 .563 22 2 0- .285- .107. 2368. 2967. 107568. 01209. 8371 . 51 .547 22 3 0- .186- .083. 1677. 3290. 070773. 44393. 8612. 91 .538 22 4 0- .237- . 1 05. 2402. 3112. 224073. 12288. 7478. 81 .536 22 5 o - .180- .078. 1912. 3542. 251576. 83423. 3654. 21 .521 22 6 o - .325- .112. 3227. 2489. 1990137 .1343. 3642. 51 .490 22 7 o - .298- .205. 1513- .161- .213122 .9349. 6622. 31 .468 22 8 o - . 1 93-.093. 1 288. 2306- .274113 .0615. 7967. 41 .638 22 9 o - .256- .106. 2928. 21 05. 1609117 .1451. 0768. 51 .676 221 0 0- .215- .091 . 21 58. 3292. 0835118 .4575. 7930. 31 .679 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 03) 23 1 o - . 1 93-.097. 1 1 50. 2929- .17879. 79413. 4650. 1 1 .562 23 2 o - .205- .105. 1 226. 2429- .22170. 58335. 5535. 21 .546 23 3 o - . 1 37-.063. 0601 . 3605- .37775. 25571. 6840. 81 .529 23 4 0- . 180-.087. 0979. 2947- .26175. 75413. 2639. 61 .518 23 5 o - . 1 43-.095. 0167. 1 1 34-.80380. 33577. 2855. 1 1 .524 23 6 0- .266- .125. 2283. 1598. 0197177 .5618. 21 062 • .560 23 7 o - .270- .064. 4137. 4056. 4629142 .7466. 981 1 . 81 .519 23 8 o - .196- .053. 2592. 3779. 1713157 .4807. 71280 • .602 23 9 o - .248- .095. 2053. 3388. 0025143 .7596. 31008 • .742 2310 0- .181- .087. 1211. 3119- .144135 .4812. 01 258 • .672 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 04) 24 1 0- . 1 22-.058. 0742. 4031- .22185. 61763. 51103 # .556 24 2 o - . 1 59-.076. 0820. 3310- .31487. 23558. 3842. 61 .534 24 3 o - .110- .068. 0531 . 2626- .37387. 41854. 01218 • .525 24 4 o - . 1 49-.058. 0732. 3745- .28592. 47629. 7939. 51 .516 24 5 o - .118- .058. 0622. 3461- .33791 . 65828. 81 192 • .530 24 6 o - .210- .135. 1 1 58. 1639- .289242 .31173 . 1 881 .579 24 7 o - .257- .197. 2685- .099. 0813198 .1743. 1 1 258 • .594 24 8 o - .201- .086. 1593. 3693- .003220 .21129 .1795 • .625 24 9 o - .229- .117. 0823. 2053- .385214 .2987. 61 625 • .730 241 0 o - .218- .107. 1211. 2340- .224242 .41138 .1847 • .647 F i g u r e A3:27-3(cont) QUEBEC CITY: MODIFIED P o l i c y Dataset 531 0000 Pol i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL " DWELLI 30 1 25 1 1 30 2 37 1 1 30 3 41 1 1 30 4 45 1 1 30 5 47 1 1 30 6 50 1 1 30 7 53 1 1 30 8 56 1 1 30 9 58 1 1 301 0 61 1 1 301 1 64 1 1 3012 67 1 1 301 3 71 1 1 301 4 76 1 1 3015 83 1 1 3016 109 1 1 301 7 33 2 1 3018 44 2 1 301 9 48 2 1 3020 52 2 1 3021 54 2 1 3022 57 2 1 3023 59 2 1 3024 62 2 1 0000 ZONAL Data 40 1 8249 29 40 411210 1 07 0000 Parameters 50 10 . 100 50 30 .725 50 50 .625 501 10 .410 501 60 .410 50201 .270 3025 65 2 1 3026 68 2 1 3027 72 2 1 3028 75 2 1 3029 79 2 1 3030 86 2 1 3031 1 17 2 1 3032 39 3 1 3033 57 3 1 3034 68 3 1 3035 79 3 1 3036 108 3 1 3037 62 4 1 3038 94 4 1 3039 53 5 1 3040 74 5 1 3041 1 03 5 1 3042 55 1 2 3043 81 1 2 3044 99 1 2 3045 1 10 1 2 3046 124 1 2 3047 1 57 1 2 3048 61 2 2 40 2 71 83 51 40 5 7679 1 1 0 50 20 .100 50 40 .450 50 60 .400 501 21 . 1 30 501 71 .200 3049 84 2 2 3050 92 2 2 3051 99 2 2 3052 108 2 2 3053 139 2 2 3054 72 3 2 3055 109 3 2 3056 122 3 2 3057 130 3 2 3058 139 3 2 3059 149 3 2 3060 162 3 2 3061 192 3 2 3062 113 4 2 3063 133 4 2 3064 147 4 2 3065 187 4 2 3066 94 5 2 3067 117 5 2 3068 129 5 2 3069 137 5 2 3070 160 5 2 40 3 7596 108 40 614238 77 50 71 . 1 40 50 80 .950 501 3 52.0 5018 80.0 F i g u r e A3:27-3(cont) QUEBEC CITY: MODIFIED P o l i c y Dataset 532 ST. JOHN'S 533 Number of Zones: 05 D i s t r i b u t i o n of Census T r a c t s to Zones: Zone 1961 1 971 1 5 5 2 2 2 3 2 2 4 7 8 5 4 4 A — 6 T o t a l 20 27 note: "A" i n d i c a t e s annexed t r a c t s . : annexed census t r a c t s i n c l u d e d i n Zone 5 S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : monthly rent value i n c o m e access 1 961 1 971 1961 1 971 1961 1971 1 74. 79. 12,629. 17,822. 2,602. 7,708. 34. 2 1 24. 141. 21,509. 34,366. 4,603. 15,244. 52. 3 88. 1 09. 19,537. 28,459. 4,495. 11,067. 71 . 4 80. 1 05. 13,566. 21,706. 3,284. 9,154. 99. 5 48. 85. 7,724. 16,647. 2,284. 7,327. 103. A 110. 22,813. 9,156. 105. • t a l 78. 101. 13,584. 21,769. 3,184. 9,094. 83. T o t a l Dwellings i n Zones: 1961 1971 d w e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g s %CMA stock NEW %new %CMA new 1 5,922. 5,950. 20.7 423. 7.1 4.6 2 1,004. 1 ,030. 3.6 56. 5.4 0.6 3 2,145. 2,560. 8.9 480. 18.7 5.2 4 6,759. 10,935. 38. 1 4,080. 37.3 44.4 5 2,011. 2,355. 8.2 800. 33.9 8.7 A 5,875. 20.5 3,351. 57.0 36.5 17,841 . 28,705. 100.0 9,189. 32.0 100.0 source: program "CZONE.FORT": f i l e s JHN61.INPUT and JHN71.INPUT. F i g u r e A3:0l-4 ST. JOHN'S: Zonal C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (5 zones) F i g u r e A3:02-4 ST. JOHN'S: C l u s t e r i n g (5 zones) 535 Demographic C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s : P o p u l a t i o n [1] 1961: 90,838. [2] 1971: 131,810. Households [1] 1961: 17,917. [2] 1971: 29,755. S o u r c e s : [ l ] S t a t i s t i c s Canada. CT 95-535 CT-20 :[2] S t a t i s t i c s Canada. CT 95-728 s e r i e s A Mean Household Incomes: 1971 Census [3] 1974 SHU data [4] d e f l a t o r SHU d e f l a t e d 9,094. 11,791. 0.7712 9,093. Sources: [3] S t a t i s t i c s Canada. CT 95-731 s e r i e s B , v a r i a b l e 49 : [4] f i l e JHN.SHU SHU d a t a s e t : Sample s i z e Sum of the WEIGHTS RATIO of SHU weights to a c t u a l households 2764. 21 ,369. 0.718165 "Model" Households: # SHU a c t u a l usehold mean # SHU "model" h'holds/ h'holds type income h'holds h'holds model /"model" 1 7,985. 2,292. 1 1 . 208. 290. 2 10, 127. 9,081 . 42. 216. 301 . 3 9,498. 965. 5. 193. 269. 4 10,581. 3,573. 17. 210. 292. 5 6,429. 1,600. 7. 229. 319. 6 8,126. 902. 4. 225. 313. 7 7,563. 1,519. 7. 217. 302. 8 4,607. 1,437. 7. 205. 286. source: program "HH1.FORT" : f i l e JHN.SHU F i g u r e A3:03-4 ST. JOHN'S: HOUSEHOLD C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . 5 3 6 T o t a l 1961 d w e l l i n g s : 17,841 . Rent a l Owner-occupier 5,458. 12,385. S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : zone rent #rental value #o-o annual u n i t s u n i t s r e n t / v a l u e 1 72. 2,339. 12,420. 3,583. 0.0696 2 1 23. 323. 21,542. 681 . 0.0684 3 87. 750. 19,518. 1 ,395. 0.0540 4 77. 1,698. 13,281 . 5,061. 0.0696 5 50. 348. 7,255. 1,663. 0.0828 t o t a l 77. 5,458. 13,777. 12,385. 0.0696 source: program "D61 .FORT" •: dataset JHN61.INPUT. 1961 "Model" D w e l l i n g s : d e r i v a t i o n : 1961 Dwellings : TOTAL : RATIO Of EXISTING unannexed/TOTAL : TOTAL 1961 Dwellings EXISTING i n 1971 : TOTAL 1961 Dwellings ADJUSTED f o r ANNEXED 1971 "model" Dwellings 1971 RATIO ACTUAL/"model" 1961 "model" Dwellings d i s t r i b u t i o n : # 17,841. 95.2% 19,516. 20,419. 100. 287. 71 . 'RHS"/actual SERVICES # "model" a c t u a l / zone d w e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g "model" c a l c u l a t e d weighted 1 5,922. 23. 258. 0.9331 0.9507 2 1,004. 4. 251 . 0.7415 0.7558 3 2,145. 9. 238. 0.8341 0.8498 4 6,759. 27. 250. 0.9644 0.9826 5 2,011. 8. 251 . 1 .2772 1.3013 e r r o r of f i t 0.01592 source: program "D61.FORT" : dataset JHN61.INPUT. F i g u r e A3:04-4 ST. JOHN'S: 1961 Dwelling C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , OWNER/OCCUPIER MODEL O.L.S. W.L.S. CONSTANT 1.8478 -.2287 (1.99) (0.24) MULTIPLE 0.3444 0.2178 (2.44) (1.37) CONSTRUCTED -.2980 -.1129 PRE 20 (2.00) (0.63) 20-45 -.4594 -.3232 (3.64) (2.61) CONDITION 0.5378 0.3904 (3.57) (2.76) LN ROOMS 1.3379 1.4009 (6.37) (6.49) LN INCOME 0.60105 0.8482 (4.78) (6.52) ACCESS 0.0006 .0012 (0.46) (0.95) R2 0.66 0.98 OBSERVATIONS 141 '141 note : " t " s t a t i s t i s i n bracke t s : data source: JHN61.EA MEANS: LN INCOME 8.0038 MULTIPLE 0.4402 ACCESS 72.8 RENTAL MODEL O.L.S. W.L.S. 0.4635 0.02758 (0.51) (0.04) 0.2848 0.1682 (2.03) • (1.63) -.2354 -.1336 (1.63) (1.53) -.1807 -.1438 (1 .46) (1.41) 0.4592 0.1766 (0.30) (1.61) 0.6483 0.5488 (3.27) (3.29) 0.6483 0.7245 (5.27) (8.38) -.0015 -.0017 (1.22) (1.62) 0.48 0.99 135 135 F i g u r e A3:05-4 ST. JOHN'S: 1961 Hedonic Estimates 538 T o t a l 1971 d w e l l i n g s : 28,710. Rental : 9,945. Owner-occupier : 18,765. S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : zone rent #rental value #o-o annual u n i t s u n i t s r e n t / v a l u e 1 77. 2,520. 17,938. 3,435. 0.0516 2 141. 375. 34,257. 655. 0.0492 3 1 04. 1 ,025. 28,851. 1 ,535. 0.0432 4 1 06. 3,645. 21,571 . 7,290. 0.0588 5 118. 2,380. 19,708. 5,850. 0.0720 t o t a l 103. 9,945. 21,364. 18,765. 0.0576 >urce: program "D71 .FORT" : dataset JHN71. INPUT. )71 "Model" D w e l l i n g s : t o t a l number of "model" d w e l l i n g s : 100. d i s t r i b u t i o n : # "RHS"/actual SERVICES # "model" a c t u a l / zone d w e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g "model" c a l c u l a t e d weighted 1 5,955. 21 . 284. 0.9522 1.001 2 2 1,030. 4. 258. 0.6436 0.6767 3 2,560. 9. 285. 0.8553 0.8993 4 10,935. 37. 296. 0.9463 0.9950 5 8,230. 29. 284. 0.9368 0.9851 287. e r r o r of f i t 0 .02652 source: program "D71.FORT" : dataset JHN-71 .1NPUT. Fi g u r e A3:06-4 ST. JOHN'S: 1971 Dwelling C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . ["GAMMA" C a l i b r a t i o n Set] 539 T o t a l 1971 d w e l l i n g s : 28,710. B u i l t p r i o r 1961 : 19,516. B u i l t 1961-1971 : 9,194. S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : zone rent #rental value #o-o annual u n i t s u n i t s r e n t / v a l u e 1 61 . 2,202. 14,618. 3,336. 0.0504 2 1 35. 348. 32,911. 627. 0.0492 3 96. 778. 27,939. 1,301 . 0.0408 4 94. 1 ,903. 19,753. 4,950. 0.0576 5 89. 900. 14,366. 3,172. 0.0744 99 1 33. 3,814. 26,196. 5,379. 0.0612 CMA 1 03. 9,945. 20,783. 18,765. 0.0588 source: program "D71.FORT" : dataset JHN71.INPUT. 1971 "Model" Dw e l l i n g s : t o t a l number of "model" d w e l l i n g s : 100. d i s t r i b u t i o n : # "RHS"/actual SERVICES # "model" a c t u a l / zone d w e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g "model" c a l c u l a t e d weighted 1 5,538. 19. 291 . 1 . 1733 1.1793 2 975. 4. 244. 0.6714 0.6748 3 2,079. 7. 297. 0.8912 0.8957 4 6,853. 24. 286. 1.0009 1.0060 5 4,072. 14. 291 . 1.1369 1.1426 99 9,194. 32. 287. 0.8148 0.8190 287. e r r o r of f i t 0.01487 source: program "D71.FORT" : dataset JHN71.INPUT. F i g u r e A3:07-4 ST. JOHN'S: 1971 Dw e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . ["BETA" C a l i b r a t i o n Set] OWNER/OCCUPIER MODEL RENTAL MODEL O.L.S W.L.S. O.L.S. W.L.S. CONSTANT MULTIPLE CONSTRUCTION 51-60 46-50 20-45 PRE 20 FACILITIES LN INCOME LN ROOMS R2 OBSERVATIONS 7.289 (44.5) -.1391 (5.50) -.1211 (3.55) -.2526 (6.10) -.4070 (12.1) -.5686 (15.5) 0.4414 (9.20) 0. 1584 (8.89) 0.5766 (12.3) 0.49 1 200 7.461 (47.2) -.1619 (6.43) -.1316 (3.90) -.2425 (5.89) -.4215 (12.4) -.5783 (15.9) 0.4212 (8.89) 0.1441 (8.41 ) 0.5721 (12.1 ) 0.95 1 200 5. 199 (28.3) 0.0166 (0.38) -.2917 (7.26) -.2679 (5.40) -.1837 (4.26) -.3653 (8.95) 0.4988 (10.9) 0.1716 (8.57) 0.0447 (1.36) 0.35 965 5.264 (30.2) 0.0352 (0.77) -.3056 (7.35) -.2920 (5.70) -.2139 (4.82) -.3478 (8.47) 0.4887 (11.0) 0.1646 (8.74) 0.0346 (1.02) 0.87 965 WEIGHTED 20-45/PRE 20 -.4822 .4943 -.2907 -.2928 note MEANS: " t " s t a t i s t i s i n b r a c k e t s data source: JHN.SHU weighted c o e f f i c i e n t f o r 20-45 and pre 20 used as a c t u a l census data combines these v a r i a b l e s LN INCOME 9.0112 MULTIPLE 0.610 ACCESS 82.0 F i g u r e A3:08-4 ST. JOHN'S: 1971 Hedonic Estimates 541 adjustment v a l u e s : 1971 Census 21,769. 101 . 9,094. PRICE RENT INCOME R/V r a t i o : 0.0576 r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s and ALPHAs: O.L.S. MODEL 1974 SHU 42,880. 166. 11,791 . d e f l a t o r 0.50767 0.60843 0.77120 P(j)/PN r a t i o : 0.84140 c o e f f i c i e n t s ALPHAs [1] CONSTANT (TYPE 1) DUMMY (TYPE 2) DUMMY (TYPE 3) DUMMY (TYPE 4) DUMMY (TYPE 5) DUMMY (TYPE 6) DUMMY (TYPE 7) DUMMY (TYPE 8) R2 OBSERVATIONS 2.7505 (91.7) -.1814 (5.06) -.1737 (3.08) -.3280 (7.45) 0.0518 (0.95) 0.2196 (3.63) 0.0794 (1.35) 0.3152 (4.96) 0.07 2518 0.1565 0. 1305 0.1315 0.1127 0.1648 0.1949 0.1694 0.2145 W.L.S. MODEL c o e f f i c i e n t s .7346 (79.1) ALPHAS [1] [2] 2 0.1540 0.1695 -.2055 (5.15) -.1813 (2.70) -.3200 (6.87) 0.0428 (0.72) 0.1932 (2.83) 0.0524 (0.86) 0.3270 (5.05) 0.52 2518 0.1254 0.1385 0.1285 0.1418 0.1118 0.1236 0.1608 0.1769 0.1869 0.2050 0.1623 0.1785 0.2136 0.2336 n o t e : [ l ] ALPHA values are c a l c u l a t e d as; ALPHA(1) = EXP(INTERCEPT) ALPHA(2)-(8) = EXP(INTERCEPT+COEFFICIENT) [2] ALPHA values a d j u s t e d as d e s c r i b e d i n S e c t i o n A1.32 [3] " t " values i n brackets F i g u r e A3:09-4 ST. JOHN'S: Household ALPHAs r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s • a n d ALPHAs R log( ) = log(a) + l o g ( Y ( i ) ) Y ( i ) O.L.S. MODEL W.L.S. MODEL ALPHAS [1] CONSTANT (TYPE 1) coef f i c i e n t 9.4776 (60.5) coef f i c i e n t 9.4441 (59.7) at 0. mean [2] 1 344 lowest 0.0864 hig h e s t 0.3969 DUMMY (TYPE 2) -.0409 (1 .50) -.0235 (0.77) 0. 1096 0. 0586 0.9092* DUMMY (TYPE 3) 0.0035 (0.08) 0.0347 (0.68) 0. 1219 0. 0983 0.1810 DUMMY (TYPE 4) -.0990 (2.94) -.0492 (1.37) 0. 1 033 0. 0642 0.2174 DUMMY (TYPE 5) -.1317 (3.17) -.1147 (2.55) 0. 1413 0. 0878 0.2593 DUMMY (TYPE 6) 0.1707 (3.74) 0.2195 (4.24) 0. 1 652 0. 1 207 0.2954 DUMMY (TYPE 7) -.0077 (0.17) -.0027 (0.06) 0. 1 396 0. 0918 0.3608 DUMMY (TYPE 8) -.1123 (2.29) -.0938 (1.87) 0. 1860 0. 1 1 04 0.3860 LN INCOME -.7586 (43.4) -.7619 (43.0) R2 0.47 0.73 OBSERVATIONS 2518 2518 note: [1] ALPHA values are c a l c u l a t e d by the s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m program by s u b s t i t u t i n g the household's "model" incomes, , d e s c r i b e d i n S e c t i o n A1.32. These are unadjusted v a l u e s . [2] c a l c u l a t e d by s u b s t i t u t i n g TYPEs mean income. [3] " t " values i n b r a c k e t s . [*] values t r u n c a t e d . F i g u r e A3:09-4(b) ST. JOHN'S: Household ALPHAs [modified] 5 4 3 Operating and C a p i t a l C o s t s : Annual Operating Year Costs Annual C a p i t a l Costs D w e l l i n g S t a r t s Weight Weighted Weighted Operating C a p i t a l Costs Costs 1 961 628.0 1044. 252 - - -1962 630.0 1096. 373 0.048 36.3 52.6 1963 633.0 1081 . 521 0.067 42.4 72.4 1 964 641 .0 1039. 449 0.058 37.2 60.3 1965 653.0 1 1 57. 556 0.071 46.4 81.7 1966 667.0 1349. 1 ,023 0.131 87.4 176.7 1967 696.0 1458. 1,213 0.1 56 1 08.6 227.4 1 968 733.0 1770. 977 0. 126 92.3 223.0 1969 765.0 1916. 771 0.099 75.7 189.7 1 970 813.0 2203. 679 0.087 70.7 191.7 1 971 867.0 1956. 1 ,222 0. 157 1 36.2 307. 1 "Model" C o s t s : Annual Annual T o t a l Operating C a p i t a l Annual Costs Costs Cost PO PC PN QM 1 961 6 2 8 . 0 1 0 4 4 . 0 1 6 7 2 . 0 0 . 3 7 6 0 . 6 2 4 1 . 0 0 0 decade we ig h t e d 7 2 7 . 0 1 5 8 3 . 0 231 0 . o 0 . 4 3 4 0 . 9 4 6 1 . 3 8 0 3 4 1 971 8 6 7 . 5 1 9 5 6 . 0 2 8 2 3 . 5 0 . 5 1 9 1 . 1 7 0 1 . 6 8 9 2 7 F i g u r e A3:10-4 ST. JOHN'S: P r i c e s , Costs and Q u a n t i t i e s [New C o n s t r u c t i o n ] 0000 GAMMA CALIBRATION 0000 INCOME by TYPE 20 1 7985 20 210127 20 3 9497 20 410581 20 5 6429 20 6 8125 20 7 7562 20 8 4606 0000 ALPHA by TYPE 21 1.1540 21 2.1254 21 3.1285 21 4.1118 21 5.1608 21 6.1869 21 7.1623 21 8.2136 0000 "MODEL" HOUSEHOLDS 10 1 747 1 105122329 2 10 2 2491 1 105228422 2 10 3 3997 1 105339773 2 10 4 5142 1 1054 4001 3 10 5 6167 1 1055 7509 3 10 6 7201 1 1056 9408 3 10 7 8239 1 105711136 3 10 8 9532 1 105815228 3 10 911160 1 1059 2076 4 101012866 1 1060 3421 4 101120912 1 1061 4371 4 1012 99 2 1062 5064 4 1013 291 2 1063 5979 4 1014 962 2 1064 6697 4 1015 2032 2 1065 7579 4 1016 271 2 2 1066 8266 4 1017 331 0 2 1067 9075 4 1018 3792 2 1068 9828 4 1019 41 48 2 106910905 4 1020 4524 2 107012062 4 1 021 4801 2 107113566 4 1 022 5183 2 107215185 4 1 023 5531 2 107316731 4 1 024 5904 2 107420095 4 1 025 6243 2 107529910 4 1026 661 3 2 1076 1704 5 1027 7031 2 1077 2700 5 1028 7378 2 1078 3493 5 1029 7677 2 1079 4315 5 1 030 7891 2 1080 6023 5 1031 8233 2 1081 8398 5 1032 8638 2 1 08218207 5 1033 901 2 2 1083 2280 6 1034 9371 2 1084 5366 6 1 035 9700 2 1085 8823 6 103610076 2 108616156 6 103710441 2 1087 948 7 103810830 2 1088 2612 7 103911138 2 1089 4751 7 104011559 2 1090 6302 7 104111817 2 1091 8174 7 104212486 2 109211066 7 104313114 2 109318950 7 104413766 2 1094 933 8 104514379 2 1095 1649 8 104615282 2 1096 2102 8 104716014 2 1097 2916 8 104817124 2 1098 4371 8 104918449 2 1099 6052 8 105019886 2 11 014425 8 Fig u r e A3:11-4 ST. JOHN'S: "GAMMA" C a l i b r a t i o n Data 545 0000 GAMMA CALIBRATION 0000 "MODEL" Dwellings 30 1 18 1 4 1 3035 16 13 4 3069 156 128 4 30 2 35 29 1 3036 32 26 4 3070 169 1 38 4 30 3 46 37 1 3037 41 33 4 3071 220 180 4 30 4 55 45 1 3038 48 40 4 3072 8 7 5 30 5 63 52 1 3039 54 44 4 3073 16 1 3 5 30 6 68 56 1 3040 59 48 4 3074 22 18 5 30 7 72 59 1 3041 62 51 4 3075 29 24 5 30 8 76 62 1 3042 65 53 4 3076 35 28 5 30 9 80 65 1 3043 68 56 4 3077 40 33 5 301 0 84 69 1 3044 71 58 4 3078 46 37 5 301 1 89 72 1 3045 74 61 4 3079 51 42 5 301 2 93 76 1 3046 77 63 4 3080 57 47 5 301 3 98 80 1 3047 79 65 4 3081 62 51 5 301 4 1 04 85 1 3048 82 67 4 3082 67 55 5 301 5 1 10 90 1 3049 84 69 4 3083 73 60 5 301 6 1 18 96 1 3050 87 71 4 3084 79 64 5 301 7 1 27 1 04 1 3051 89 73 4 3085 83 68 5 3018 137 1 1 2 1 3052 92 75 4 3086 88 72 5 301 9 1 49 1 22 1 3053 95 77 4 3087 92 75 5 3020 166 1 36 1 3054 97 79 4 3088 97 79 5 3021 238 1 94 1 3055 100 81 4 3089 103 84 5 3022 51 41 2 3056 1 02 84 4 3090 109 89 5 3023 81 66 2 3057 1 05 86 4 3091 1 1 4 94 5 3024 103 84 2 3058 1 08 88 4 3092 1 20 98 5 3025 1 37 1 1 2 2 3059 1 1 0 90 4 3093 125 1 02 5 3026 50 41 3 3060 1 1 4 93 4 3094 1 30 106 '5 3027 69 56 3 3061 1 18 96 4 3095 1 36 1 1 1 5 3028 77 63 3 3062 1 22 99 4 3096 140 1 1 5 5 3029 82 67 3 3063 1 25 102 4 3097 145 119 5 3030 88 72 3 3064 1 29 105 4 3098 151 1 23 5 3031 96 78 3 3065 1 33 1 08 4 3099 165 1 35 5 3032 109 89 3 3066 1 37 1 1 2 4 31 0 217 1 77 5 3033 127 1 03 3 3067 1 43 1 1 7 4 3034 171 1 39 3 3068 1 49 1 22 4 0000 ZONAL DATA 40 1 7708 34 40 215244 52 40 311067 71 40 4 9154 99 40 5 8633 105 40 6 9093 82 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n Data 70 11.0460.0890.5120.0370.0590.1320.0280.0760.068 77091.000 96.5 70 21.1100.0480.4570.0300.1170.1220.0150.0980.113152421.000 93. 1 70 31.2120.0850.6290.0400.0950.0740.0110.0410.026110661.000 96.5 70 41.2030.1230.5700.0580.0860.0890.0140.0350.026 91521.000 97.6 70 51.2350.1300.6080.0530.0590.0780.0150.0340.023 86361.000 89.8 70 60.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 00.0 0.0 Fi g u r e A3:11-4A ST. JOHN'S: "GAMMA" C a l i b r a t i o n Data 546 0000 BETA CALIBRATION 0000 INCOME by TYPE 20 1. 7985 20 210127 20 3 9497 20 410581 20 20 20 5 6429 6 8125 7 7562 20 8 4606 0000 21 1 , 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 ALPHA 1 540 1254 1285 1118 1 608 1869 1 623 8.2136 by TYPE 0000 "MODEL" HOUSEHOLDS 10 1 747 1 105122329 2 10 2 2491 1 105228422 2 10 3 3997 1 105339773 2 10 4 51 42 1 1054 4001 3 10 5 6167 1 1055 7509 3 10 6 7201 1 1056 9408 3 10 7 8239 1 105711136 3 10 8 9532 1 105815228 3 10 911160 1 1059 2076 4 101012866 1 1060 3421 ' 4 101120912 1 1061 4371 4 1012 99 2 1062 5064 4 1013 291 2 1063 5979 4 1014 962 2 1064 6697 4 1015 2032 2 1065 7579 4 1016 271 2 2 1066 8266 4 1017 3310 2 1067 9075 4 1018 3792 2 1068 9828 4 1019 41 48 2 1 06910905 4 1020 4524 2 107012062 4 1021 4801 2 107113566 4 1022 5183 2 107215185 4 1 023 5531 2 107316731 4 1 024 5904 2 107420095 4 1 025 6243 2 107529910 4 1026 661 3 2 1076 1704 5 1 027 7031 2 1077 2700 5 1 028 7378 2 1078 3493 5 1 029 7677 2 1079 4315 5 1030 7891 2 1080 6023 5 1031 8233 2 1081 8398 5 1 032 8638 2 108218207 5 1033 9012 2 1083 2280 6 1034 9371 2 1084 5366 6 1 035 9700 2 1085 8823 6 103610076 2 108616156 6 103710441 2 1087 948 7 103810830 2 1088 2612 7 103911138 2 1089 4751 7 104011559 2 1090 6302 7 104111817 2 1091 8174 7 104212486 2 109211066 7 104313114 2 109318950 7 104413766 2 1094 933 8 104514379 2 1095 1649 8 104615282 2 1096 2102 8 104716014 2 1097 2916 •8 104817124 2 1098 4371 8 104918449 2 1099 6052 8 105019886 2 11 014425 8 F i g u r e A3:12-4 ST. JOHN'S: "BETA" C a l i b r a t i o n Data 547 0000 BETA CALIBRATION 0000 30 1 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 8 30 9 301.0 301 1 3012 301 3 301 4 3015 3016 3017 3018 3019 3020 3021 3022 3023 3024 3025 3026 3027 3028 3029 3030 3031 3032 3033 3034 'MODEL" 18 31 37 43 49 55 59 63 66 70 73 76 79 83 86 90 94 100 1 09 1 19 1 36 175 231 63 88 1 05 1 42 45 67 80 90 100 109 1 17 Dwellings 0000 ZONAL DATA 40 1 7708 40 215244 40 311067 4 9154 5 8633 6 9093 40 40 40 34 52 71 99 105 82 3035 3036 3037 3038 3039 3040 3041 3042 3043 3044 3045 3046 3047 3048 3049 3050 3051 3052 3053 3054 3055 3056 3057 3058 3059 3060 3061 3062 3063 3064 3065 3066 3067 3068 1 27 180 18 31 41 48 54 59 63 66 70 73 77 81 84 87 90 93 97 101 1 05 1 1 0 1 1 5 1 20 1 27 1 36 1 46 164 21 1 1 9 28 42 60 78 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 3069 103 5 3070 138 5 3071 210 5 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n Data 70 70 70 70 70 1 1 21 31 41 51 0230 1050 1910 1 450 1 670 0890, 0480, 0850, 1 150 5120.0370, 4580.0300, 6350.0390, 5660.0530, 1230.6170.0460 0580.1320.0280.0760.069 77080.936 88.2 1 170. 1.220.0150.0980. 1 13152230.973 84.7 0930.0720.0110.0400.025108310.970 87.7 0830.1010.0160.0380.029 89131.000 88.9 0440.0960.0110.0360.027 74961.000 73.3 70 61.3800.1310.5850.0600.0830.0680.0150.0340.023 97291.000 94.9 Fi g u r e A3:12-4A ST. JOHN'S: "BETA" C a l i b r a t i o n Data 548 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" HOUSEHOLDS and BASE DATA 0 1 2106 1 41 .197 45. 3 1051 7159 3 131 .229 84. 1 0 2 3882 1 41 1 .239 64. 2 1052 8516 3 311 .258 92. 3 0 3 4919 1 101 .245 73. 8 1053 9604 3 321 .261 99. 1 0 4 5877 1 121 .255 81 . 8 1 0541 1111. 3 9991 .300106. 5 0 5 6696 1 141 .246 88. 8 105513084 3 9991 .300117. 5 0 6 7539 1 581 .285 93. 8 105617252 3 9991 .300138. 7 0 7 8555 1 491 .246102. 8 1057 3002 4 391 .226 47. 1 0 8 9557 1 9991 .300107. 5 1058 5209 4 9991 .300 63. 6 0 910639 1 621 .281115. 6 1059 6327 4 9991 .300 71 . 5 01012028 1 9991 .300123. 4 1060 7501 4 551 .276 80. 0 0111 6186 1 9991 .300147. 5 1061 8392 4 9991 .300 84. 7 012 503 2 650 .956 20. 6 1062 9321 4 9991 .300 90. 3 013 2492 2 221 .228 47. 1 106310885 4 9991 .300 99. 1 014 361 6 2 61 .240 58. 7 106411820 4 61 1 .270105. 3 015 4389 2 261 .237 66. 0 106513009 4 341 .249112. 4 016 5149 2 431 .239 72. 6 106614557 4 9991 .300117. 9 017 5626 2 281 .242 76. 4 106717173 4 9991 .300130. 2 018 6018 2 9991 .300 77. 8 106825971 4 641 .237171 . 1 019 6525 2 9991 .300 81 . 6 1069 1886 5 31 .325 41 . 2 020 681 4 2 561 .274 84. 6 1070 2775 5 401 .190 55. 0 021 7261 2 571 .268 88. 1 1071 3306 5 71 .200 60. 8 022 7545 2 471 .240 91 . 2 1072 3703 5 251 .264 63. 3 023 7864 2 151 .244 93. 4 1073 4377 5 271 .239 70. 7 024 8189 2 9991 .300 93. 6 1074 5723 5 291 .264 82. 2 025 8428 2 9991 .300 95. 2 1075 7535 5 591 .270 96. 7 026 8791 2 161 .252 99. 5 107616672 5 201 .237158. 0 027 9090 2 9991 .300 99. 6 1077 789 6 21 1 .336 30. 6 028 9377 2 601 .281 1 02. 2 1078 1778 6 51 .222 52. 5 029 9759 2 331 .260105. 6 1079 2599 6 81 .230 65. 7 03010006 2 171 .249107. 7 1080 3473 6 441 .246 77. 6 03110408 2 9991 .300108. 1 1081 4262 6 461 .254 87. 4 03210775 2 501 .235113. 2 1082 5080 6 481 .248 97. 3 03311166 2 9991 .300112. 7 1083 6007 6 671 .256107. 2 03411511 2 181 .249117. 1 1084 8145 6 351 .262128. 4 03511829 2 9991 .300116. 7 108513476 6 521 .200178. 9 03612199 2 9991 .300118. 9 1086 1497 7 21 .368 34. 2 03712583 2 9991 .300121. 1 1087 3094 7 531 .236 55. 7 03813217 2 191 .248127. 3 1088 4430 7 421 .241 69. 0 03913747 2 51 1 .250130. 2 1089 5459 7 1 1 1 .251 77. 8 04014159 2 631 .282130. 9 1090 6541 7 301 .257 86. 6 04114703 2 9991 .300133. 0 1091 8211 7 9991 .300 97. 5 04215371 2 9991 .300136. 5 109210649 7 9991 .300114. 0 04316208 2 9991 .300141 . 0 109316316 7 9991 .300147. 2 04416839 2 9991 .300144. 2 1094 1035 8 381 .253 37. 5 04518257 2 9991 .300151 . 4 1095 1511 8 661 .222 47. 8 04620400 2 9991 .300161 . 8 1096 1786 8 231 .214 53. 1 04724523 2 361 .134193. 9 1097 2068 8 241 .232 57. 4 04837327 2 9991 .300232. 6 1098 2847 8 91 .234 69. 6 049 3143 3 9991 .300 49. 9 1099 3898 8 451 .259 82. 9 050 5861 3 541 .262 73. 6 1100 9725 8 9991 .300140. 8 Fi g u r e A3:13-4 ST. JOHN'S: P o l i c y Dataset 549 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" DWELLINGS 30 1 22 1 3035 136 2 30 2 34 1 3036 223 2 30 3 42 1 3037 26 3 30 4 50 1 3038 40 3 30 5 57 1 3039 51 3 30 6 63 1 3040 61 3 30 7 67 1 3041 69 3 30 8 71 1 3042 74 3 30 9 75 1 3043 78 3 3010 79 1 3044 83 3 301 1 83 1 3045 88 3 3012 87 1 3046 93 3 3013 91 1 3047 98 3 3014 95 1 3048 1 04 3 3015 1 00 1 3049 1 10 3 3016 1 06 1 3050 1 22 3 3017 1 1 5 1 3051 1 39 3 3018 125 1 3052 1 97 3 3019 1 36 1 3053 60 4 3020 1 70 1 3054 78 4 3021 31 2 3055 84 4 3022 51 2 3056 89 4 3023 58 2 3057 93 4 3024 62 2 3058 98 4 3025 67 2 3059 1 02 4 3026 71 2 3060 1 07 4 3027 76 2 3061 1 1 1 4 3028 82 2 3062 121 4 3029 87 2 3063 1 37 4 3030 92 2 3064 1 84 4 3031 98 2 3065 27 5 3032 1 05 2 3066 52 5 3033 1 12 2 3067 1 1 4 5 3034 1 20 2 0000 INCOME by TYPE 0000 ALPHA by TYPE 0000 ZONAL DATA 20 1 7977 21 1.1510 40 1 7044 25 20 211084 21 2.1264 40 2 7885 29 20 3 9424 21 3.1278 40 3 6898 54 20 411038 21 4.1130 40 411131 62 20 5 5689 21 5.1771 40 5 3037 5 20 6 5024 21 6.2347 40 614109 43 20 7 7013 21 7.1579 20 8 3249 21 8.2802 F i g u r e A3:13-4(cont) ST. JOHN'S: P o l i c y Dataset RENTAL MODEL OWNER-OCCUPIER MODEL CONSTANT 2.8963 0.7998 (16.6) (4.02) BATH 0.1639 na (3.37) TOILET -.0493 0.3355 (0.75) (3.90) SUBSIDIS -.2268 -.0786 (6.94) (0.87) LNLIVING 0.2047 0.2494 (4.64) (5.59) LNINCOM 0.1647 0.2485 (9.35) (11.9) TYPE -.0252 -.2770 (1.30) (10.3) LNDIST 0.0057 0.0027 (0.44) (0.22) B51 60 -.1543 -.0006 (5.41 ) (0.03) B4650 -.0796 0.0321 (5.52) (0.97) B21 45 -.0796 -.0287 (2.38) (1.08) BPRE20 -. 1399 -.1918 (4.79) (6.53) LGLVSIZE 0.0988 0.1859 (3.42) (6.30) LGBDSIZE 0.0185 0.1026 (3.42) (6.30) OPENSP -.0493 -.0171 (2.02) (0.70) HIGHDEN -.0037 -.0178 (0.15) (0.39) COMMERC 0.0166 na (0.62) NEIGHBD 0.0964 na (2.88) FINANCE -.0213 -.0440 (0.90) (1.46) AMRATE na 0.0723 (15.0) R2 0.38 0.51 Observat ions 1077 1332 note: " t " s t a t i s t i c s i n brack e t s : data source: JHN.REG02 Fi g u r e A3:14-4 ST. JOHN'S: 1971 Hedonic Estimates f o r T r a n s l o g s t r a n s l o g v a r i a b l e s ph*XH. TYPE 1 mean min max TYPE 2 mean min max TYPE 3 mean min max TYPE 4 mean min max TYPE 5 mean min max TYPE 6 mean min max TYPE 7 mean min max TYPE 8 mean min max TYPE 9 mean min max TYPE 10 mean min max M 403.4 42.5 2058.6 425.6 57.8 1689.8 664.3 140.7 2037.9 470.3 81.6 1284. 1 676.3 1 05.3 2681 .6 679.3 130.5 3682.8 764.9 105.3 2487.2 1050.7 200. 1 3007.2 794.8 181.7 2228.2 1047.5 174.2 3189.6 ph*XH 108.4 24.9 691 .3 118.9 40.8 256.5 1 28.4 31.1 299.3 121.7 42.9 326.3 1 30.4 35.9 324.9 239.6 51 .4 724.5 277.7 63.9 743.5 273. 1 46.5 989. 1 268.2 63. 1 1010.0 281 .6 23.7 1012.6 ph .275 .202 .426 .287 .202 .467 .292 .202 .464 .294 .202 .448 .294 .202 .445 691 295 755 698 318 780 699 304 768 740 335 809 .706 .311 .781 P9 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 1 .241 M 0.3503 0.0579 0.9353 0.3670 0.0905 0.9460 0.2292 0.0389 0.9041 0.3092 0.0971 0.9965 0.2303 0.0258 0.9444 0.4283 0.0533 0.9675 0.3992 0. 1192 0.9971 0.2811 0.0474 0.8870 0.3627 0.1042 0.9909 0.2879 0.0662 0.9919 F i g u r e A3:15-4 ST. JOHN'S : Tr a n s l o g Input V a r i a b l e s S t a t i s t i c s A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE 1 A1 .2893 91 .3) .2938 134. ) .2022 196. ) .2774 132. ) .2014 1 53. ) .3713 141.) .3787 109. ) .2670 1 75. ) .3489 189. ) .2772 215. ) B1 1 -. 1687 (11.6) -.1937 (20.4) -.1093 (20.8) -.2131 (19.8) -. 1024 (14.8) -.1853 (18.9) -.1791 (10.4) -. 1556 (23.5) -.2115 (25.7) -.1414 (26. 1) B1 2 0. 1897 (33.6) 0.2021 (41.1) 0.1591 (58.7) 0.2268 (44.2) 0.1611 (51.4) 0.2310 (40.4) 0.2787 (32.4) 0.1703 (30.5) 0.2542 (43. 1 ) 0.2153 (58.8) BM1 0.0746 (1 .85) -.0062 (0.28) 0.1998 (10.2) -.0548 (1.56) 0.2522 (9.13) 0.0491 (2.11) 0.1420 (3.54) 0.0872 (3.95) 0.0056 (0.25) 0.1801 (11.4) BM2 -.0112 (1.37) -.0021 (0.31 ) -.0577 (12.7) 0.0648 (9.23) -.0481 (10.7) 0.0459 (5.31 ) 0.1448 (11.2) -.0611 (6.44) 0.0876 (10.4) 0.0468 (8.86) MQH MQX ME # 85.0 237.7 403.4 94 92.3 247.2 425.6 149 99.5 431.8 664.3 291 94.0 280.9 470.3 265 100.7 439.9 676.3 278 141.9 354.3 679.3 201 162.7 392.6 764.9 126 160.8 626.5 1050.7 222 153.8 424.3 794.8 299 165.3 617.1 1047.5 484 note: [1] " t " values i n brackets [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:16-4 ST. JOHN'S: D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [ a l l income l e v e l s ] SHARE = A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.4043 (169.) -.1700 (17.2) 0.2603 (34.0) 0.1137 (4.66) 0.0855 (7.58) 72. 2 114. 6 234. 3 61 2 -.4229 ( 186.) -.2303 (19.4) 0.2737 (34.6) -.0347 (1.39) 0.0865 (8.21) 82. 0 121. 3 256. 3 88 3 -.2680 (209. ) -. 1 208 (16.1) 0.2034 (43. 1 ) 0.1977 (8.78) -.0035 (0.47) 93. 9 278. 1 466. 3 1 56 4 -.3646 ( 139.) -. 1926 (12.4) 0.3028 (32.2) 0.0532 (1.26) 0.1585 (12.5) 82. 9 1 62. 2 308. 6 1 48 5 -.2592 ( 170. ) -. 1 145 (14.4) 0.2159 (40. 1 ) 0.2319 (8.57) 0.0186 (2.45) 90. 2 280. 5 464. 7 1 52 6 -.4961 ( 179.) -.2191 (12.2) 0.2988 (25.9) -.0027 (0.07) 0.1409 (8.43) 1 24. 8 1 78. 0 431 . 3 1 29 7 -.4393 ( 109.) -. 1132 (4.51) 0.3650 (22.0) 0.2506 (5.23) 0.2650 (11.4) 1 36. 9 246. 9 538. 4 72 8 -.3038 (139.) -.1518 (14.5) 0.2091 (15.9) 0.0965 (2.86) -.0094 (0.43) 1 32. 1 423. 6 748. 0 120 9 -.3936 (159.) -.1679 (11.5) 0.3262 (25.9) 0.0876 (2.38) 0. 1782 (10.4) 131. 2 292. 7 589. 7 1 73 1 0 -.3088 (187. ) -. 1 286 (15.9) 0.2634 (38.8) 0.2137 (9.81 ) 0.1094 (12.4) 1 37. 0 433. 1 770. 2 280 note: [1] " t " values i n bracke t s [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:17-4 ST. JOHN'S: D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [below mean income] 554 A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BMI * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BMI BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.1942 -.0877 0.0966 0.2983 -.2648 108.7 465.4 716.1 33 (159.) (13.7) (18.9) (13.7) (14.9) 2 -.2050 -.0990 0.0943 0.2898 -.3264 107.0 428.7 670.0 61 (205.) (16.9) (11.9) (11.1) (10.2) 3 -.1534 -.0708 0.0745 0.3463 -.3224 106.0 609.3 893.1 135 (295.) (18.8) (11.8) (14.8) (8.99) 4 -.2083 -.1052 0.1137 0.2639 -.2317 108.1 431.0 674.9 117 (286.) (19.0) (16.5) (10.5) (7.94) 5 -.1574 -.0787 0.0640 0.3065 -.4171 113.3 632.2 931.6 126 (249.) (18.5) (13.4) (13.5) (15.6) 6 -.2630 -.1219 0.1590 0.2277 -.1161 172.6 670.1 1123.6 72 (123.) (13.5) (15.3) (6.05) (4.15) 7 -.3159 -.1849 0.1355 0.0224 -.2191 197.1 586.8 1067.0 54 (93.9) (10.1) (5.49) (0.32) (3.22) 8 -.2387 -.1275 0.1189 0.1739 -.2122 194.7 865.3 1406.8 102 (149.) (12.0) (9.00) (4.47) (4.82) 9 -.3069 -.1737 0.2048 0.1199 0.0038 184.9 605.0 1076.4 126 (200.) (19.9) (22.3) (4.64) (0.16) 10 -.2474 -.1346 0.1397 0.1604 -.1573 204.1 869.7 1428.1 204 (193.) (20.7) (18.2) (6.98) (7.04) note: [1] " t " values i n bracke t s [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:18-4 ST. JOHN'S: D i r e c t T ranslog-Expenditure Share [above mean income] 555 A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.4917 -.1237 0.3129 0.1813 0.1609 66.2 69.5 170.0 37 (166.) (7.98) (15.7) (6.10) (6.44) 2 -.5827 -.2456 0.2886 -.0714 0.1273 72.1 55.0 162.3 42 ( 178. ) (12.6) (22.0). (2.19) (7.35) 3 -.3715 -.1732 0.2479 0.0996 0.0517 92.9 167.8 327.6 67 (188.) (14.4) (29.9) (3.22) (4.12) 4 -.4583 -.1663 0.3655 0.0924 0.2403 79.0 103.5 230.3 74 (114.) (6.35) (20.2) (1.60) (10.6) 5 -.3230 -.1053 0.2622 0.2369 0.0799 82.3 188.2 339.7 70 (142.) (9.38) (28.0) (7.36) (6.22) 6 -.5544 -.2275 0-.3221 -.0259 0. 1738 108.3 119.9 329.6 71 (146.) (7.14) (16.6) (0.45) (6.65) 7 -.5372 -.1090 0.4027 0.2534 0.3274 130.5 154.6 413.3 31 (72.5) (1.43) (12.4) (1.82) (7.93) 8 -.3654 -.1375 0.2944 0.1526 0.1148 121.1 291.7 564.1 51 (94.4) (7.04) (10.6) (2.82) (2.46) 9 -.4581 -.1800 0.3125 0.0559 0.1495 113.9 194.6 440.7 72 (146.) (10.4) (17.8) (1.40) (6.92) 10 -.3535 -.1308 0.3171 0.2025 0.1771 123.4 318.7 603.7 125 (139.) (10.9) (27.9) (6.42) (12.7) note: [1] " t " values i n brackets [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:19-4 ST. JOHN'S: D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [ q u a r t i l e 01 ] A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.3146 -.1473 0.1834 0.2023 -.0845 81.5 184.0 333.4 24 (117.) (6.07) (4.67) (2.74) (0.69) 2 -.3397 -.1330 0.2133 0.2757 -.0221 91.1 181.9 342.1 46 (247.) (6.79) (9.09) (4.51) (0.38) 3 -.2147 -.0971 0.1092 0.3061 -.2425 94.6 361.2 570.8 89 (261.) (12.9) (5.08) (8.68) (2.85) 4 -.2934 -.1452 0.1893 0.1757 -.0471 86.8 220.9 386.8 74 (263.) (12.3) (12.3) (3.91) (1.11) 5 -.2198 -.0906 0.1293 0.3288 -.1735 96.9 359.2 571.4 82 (233.) (8.79) (5.28) (6.62) (1.81) 6 -.4474 -.1225 0.3760 0.2103 0.2586 145.0 249.3 555.8 58 (137.) (4.98) (16.1) (3.74) (8.05) 7 -.3800 -.1156 0.3605 0.2337 0.2305 141.7 316.8 632.9 41 (77.1) (3.08) (5.86) (1.60) (1.38) 8 -.2708 -.1474 0.1219 0.0851 -.3343 140.2 521.1 883.9 69 (115.) (7.31) (1.74) (1.14) (1.49) 9 -.3500 -.0304 0.4398 0.4722 0.3900 143.5 362.7 695.9 101 (140.) (1.57) (18.6) (9.20) (13.3) 10 -.2812 -.1352 0.2007 0.1390 -.1020 148.0 525.4 904.4 155 (178.) (10.7) (7.55) (3.37) (1.48) note: [1] " t " values i n br a c k e t s [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:20-4 ST. JOHN'S: D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [ q u a r t i l e 02] 557 A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # .1343 0.2775 -.2183 97.7 325.1 527.3 23 5.67) (5.40) (2.33) 1030 0.0963 0.2817 -.4061 95.8 326.5 528.7 39 1.8) (4.28) (6.43) (4.84) .0706 0.2904 -.4240 99.2 510.3 760.9 80 2.92) (6.34) (3.34) .1284 0.2634 -.2015 103.1 351.9 570.8 72 5.76) (8.16) (2.90) .0649 0.2175 -.4644 109.0 518.6 785.8 79 2.76) (4.26) (3.94) .2484 0.2985 0.0385 158.9 469.2 851.4 45 3.94) (5.24) (0.55) .2451 0.0996 -.0394 192.8 443.6 881.4 37 1.85) (0.33) (0.10) .1973 0.1810 -.1036 179.7 725.0 1206.2 64 5.32) (2.85) (0.91) .2953 0.2395 0.1865 164.0 502.0 910.9 80 9.39) (2.97) (2.47) .2734 0.3958 0.1896 174.3 736.6 1212.2 129 note: [1] " t " values i n bracke t s [2] MQH i s the .mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s 1 - . 2 3 4 8 • 0987 ( 1 9 4 . ) (8 . 8 6 ) 2 - . 2 3 2 1 - # 0 ( 2 0 7 . ) ( i . 3 - . 1 6 7 7 0807 ( 2 4 7 . ) ( i 1 . 3 ) 4 - . 2 3 5 5 - _ 1 100 ( 2 5 4 . ) ( i 3 . 1 ) 5 - . 1 8 1 3 - 1066 ( 2 2 5 . ) ( i 1 .1 ) 6 - . 3 1 6 4 • 0934 ( 1 2 3 . ) (6 . 1 3 ) 7 - . 3 7 3 5 - # 1 667 ( 9 0 . 2 ) ( i . 6 9 ) 8 - . 2 5 4 6 • 1206 ( 1 3 2 . ) (6 . 7 3 ) 9 - . 3 1 8 3 • 1 340 ( 1 4 9 . ) (5 . 5 5 ) 10 - . 2 4 5 1 • 0750 ( 1 5 8 . ) (5 . 4 3 ) F i g u r e A3:21-4 ST. JOHN'S: D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [ q u a r t i l e 03] 558 A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.1460 -.0611 0.0640 0.3712 -.4011 134.0 788.0 1150.3 10 (361.) (44.0) (32.5) (51.6) (21.3) 2 -.1786 -.1036 0.0989 0.2476 -.2661 126.7 609.9 920.5 22 (124.) (7.29) (6.00) (2.78) (2.99) 3 -.1385 -.0578 0.0779 0.4141 -.2467 116.0 753.4 1085.3 55 (195.) (9.44) (6.08) (9.86) (2.84) 4 -.1767 -.0614 0.0976 0.4810 -.2120 116.2 557.5 841.4 45 (182.) (5.06) (8.58) (8.50) (3.70) 5 -.1321 -.0653 0.0519 0.3195 -.4219 120.5 823.2 1176.8 47 (178.) (14.4) (7.18) (10.3) (8.60) 6 -.2064 -.0853 0.0875 0.3725 -.3811 195.51004.8 1577.5 27 (59.7) (4.24) (2.43) (4.62) (2.45) 7 -.2398 -.1043 0.0098 0.2820 -.5875 206.4 898.6 1471.1 17 (49.2) (2.36) (0.12) (1.33) (2.28) 8 -.2176 -.0978 0.1116 0.2754 -.2038 219.91101.5 1744.7 38 (78.9) (7.29) (4.73) (5.45) (2.00) 9 -.2901 -.1400 0.2142 0.2332 0.0731 221.1 784.0 1364.2 46 (138.) (10.6) (13.8) (5.26) (1.36) 10 -.2457 -.1424 0.0676 0.0653 -.4027 255.41098.5 1799.4 75 (146.) (14.6) (2.69) (1.46) (4.87) note: [1] " t " values in brackets [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:22-4 ST. JOHN'S: D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [ q u a r t i l e 04] 559 income e l a s t i c i t y p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y mean below above mean below above TYPE 1 Q01 0.7313 0.7315 0.7622 -1.0230 1.5662 -0.7312 Q02 0.5566 0.5705 0.5790 -0.9978 1.2207 -0.8071 Q03 0.4634 0.4566 0.4572 -1.0243 1.2241 -0.9000 Q04 0.3490 0.3327 0.3098 -0.9966 1.5148 -0.3743 TYPE 2 Q01 0.7705 0.7705 0.7705 '-1.0063 2.0547 -0.6159 Q02 0.5952 0.6392 0.6560 -0.9926 1.2376 -0.8035 Q03 0.5040 0.4640 0.4577 -1.0216 1.1842 -0.8442 Q04 0.3737 0.3714 0.3707 -0.9991 1.3214 -0.6698 TYPE 3 Q01 0.5962 0.5994 0.6030 -1.0264 1.7493 -0.7136 Q02 0.4370 0.4446 0.4444 -0.9985 1.1240 -0.9001 Q03 0.3665 0.3455 0.3461 -1.0136 1.1033 -0.9232 Q04 0.301 6 0.3283 0.3339 -0.9967 1.1485 -0.8122 TYPE 4 Q01 0.6787 0.6839 0.6866 -1.0522 1.6441 -0.7880 Q02 0.5190 0.5267 0.5297 -1.0090 1.1979 -0.8332 Q03 .0.4580 0.4646 0.4646 -1.0047 1.1164 -0.9038 Q04 0.3704 0.4426 0.4717 -0.9861 1.1487 -0.7350 TYPE 5 Q01 0.5501 0.5589 0.5557 -1.0700 1.7022 -0.8665 Q02 0.4430 0.4588 0.4558 -1.0048 1.1165 -0.9183 Q03 0.3917 0.3641 0.3624 -1.0034 1.1115 -0.8936 Q04 0.3030 0.2869 0.2853 -1.0008 1.1861 -0.7954 TYPE 6 Q01 0.7551 0.7564 0.7614 -1.0195 1.7451 -0.7211 Q02 0.6882 0.7182 0.7165 -1.0495 1.2954 -0.9026 Q03 0.5537 0.5792 0.5783 -1.0540 1.2539 -0.8990 Q04 0.4681 0.4606 0.4559 -0.9979 1.3412 -0.6195 TYPE 7 Q01 0.8254 0.8299 0.8870 -0.9735 1.4353 -0.7772 Q02 0.6232 0.6413 0.6437 -1.0731 1.2593 -0.9238 Q03 0.6145 0.6016 0.5896 -1.0565 1.2846 -0.8637 Q04 0.5483 0.4895 0.4530 -0.9768 1.2392 -0.5902 TYPE 8 Q01 0.5892 0.5894 0.5896 -1.0751 1.8252 -0.8174 Q02 0.4803 0.4591 0.4444 -1.0501 1.2176 -0.8787 Q03 0.4726 0.4571 0.4501 -1.0684 1.2360 -0.8974 Q04 0.4184 0.4296 0.4332 -1.0023 1.2200 -0.7275 TYPE 9 Q01 0.671 1 0.6717 0.6732 -1.0470 - 1.7623 -0.7664 Q02 0.6309 0.7088 0.7119 -1.1217 1.2572 -1.0281 Q03 0.5585 0.5837 0.6018 -1.0256 1.1884 -0.8764 Q04 0.4998 0.5392 0.5922 -0.9872 1.3067 -0.6646 TYPE 10 Q01 0.5919 0.6026 0.6041 -1.0641 1.5547 -0.8714 Q02 0.4928 0.4827 0.4760 -1.0671 1.2447 -0.9195 Q03 0.4749 0.5209 0.5271 -1.0613 1.1973 -0.9534 Q04 0.4642 0.4167 0.4033 -1.0176 1.2605 -0.7106 F i g u r e A3:23-4 ST. JOHN'S: Income and P r i c e E l a s t i c i t i e s 560 ALL BELOW ABOVE Q01 Q02 Q03 Q04 TYPE 1 normal 207.48 167.95 125.24 104.44 79.59 90.21 61.95 BM1=BM2=0 204.78 141.88 87.31 85.25 72.33 68.97 32.42 s t a t i s t i c 5.40 52.13 75.86 38.37 14.52 42.49 59.06 TYPE 2 normal 346.99 231.89 222.96 114.59 158.00 144.92 82.66 BM1=BM2=0 346.88 201.33 177.06 86.98 141.30 116.42 67.42 s t a t i s t i c 0.21 61.12 91.80 55.21 33.41 56.99 30.48 TYPE 3 normal 781.62 438.01 520.36 191.62 323.88 306.21 219.70 BM1=BM2=0 684.08 404.10 410.45 181.17 270.75 247.27 168.77 s t a t i s t i c 195.08 67.83 219.80 20.90 106.27 117.88 101.85 TYPE 4 normal 540.32 318.40 425.92 159.01 250.18 264.85 173.71 BM1=BM2=0 478.12 231.30 352.95 98.26 224.18 216.40 149.77 s t a t i s t i c 124.41 174.20 145.95 121.50 52.00 96.90 47.89 TYPE 5 normal 687.72 406.57 475.48 190.39 285.30 296.81 188.95 BM1=BM2=0 614.28 373.67 343.08 162.51 228.72 258.89 121.62 s t a t i s t i c 146.88 65.80 264.80 55.75 113.15 75.85 134.66 TYPE 6 normal 406.92 287.36 196.71 162.80 143.31 126.12 79.75 BM1=BM2=0 392.40 241.09 162.00 132.12 114.25 103.79 71.74 s t a t i s t i c 29.03 92.53 69.41 61.35 58.13 44.66 16.01 TYPE 7 normal 244.12 152.03 139.15 65.98 95.54 95.80 47.20 BM1=BM2=0 177.11 93.32 126.31 38.62 94.02 92.95 44.14 s t a t i s t i c 134.01 117.41 25.67 54.72 3.05 5.70 6.12 TYPE 8 normal 543.53 287.61 290.68 119.84 186.00 185.28 114.09 BM1=BM2=0 510.40 278.96 247.97 115.73 174.52 167.10 102.34 s t a t i s t i c 66.26 17.29 85.43 8.22 22.96 36.36 23.51 TYPE 9 normal 636.65 365.56 347.73 170.61 250.91 222.08 136.81 BM1=BM2=0 572.42 297.10 333.10 146.18 182.17 217.61 119.98 s t a t i s t i c 128.47 136.94 29.26 48.85 137.48 8.94 33.65 TYPE 10 normal 1097.35 649.68 559.92 290.72 415.30 368.47 220.29 BM1=BM2=0 996.96 538.44 494.93 210.91 386.57 333.94 181.56 s t a t i s t i c 200.77 222.48 129.98 159.61 57.46 69.05 77.46 Fi g u r e A3:24-4 ST. JOHN'S: Log L i k e l i h o o d Values: [ t e s t of u n i t y income e l a s t i c i t y ] 0000 Demand C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL" MODIFIED HOUSEHOLDS 0 1. 1704 1 -293 23 0 2 3619 1 709 1 77 0 3 8537 1 6567 2095 0 4 1187 2 -253 18 0 5 2417 2 738 161 0 6 3911 2 2590 492 0 7 5653 2 4798 1052 0 8 9325 2 9841 3079 0 9 2575 3 281 1 1 6 010 4673 3 2799 553 011 6017 3 41 22 800 012 6994 3 5451 1101 013 7943 3 6340 1312 014 9053 3 7771 1669 01510693 3 9812 2293 01614044 31 4587 4245 017 458 4- 1410 0 018 1976 4 -355 32 019 2848 4 -1 39 64 020 3555 4 310 84 021 4097 4 1339 279 022 4670 4 1510 286 023 5640 4 2654 51 1 024 6534 4 3826 780 025 7680 4 51 20 1 1 50 02610407 4 9337 2778 027 1931 5- 1 1 40 43 028 4412 5 1 1 60 300 029 5413 5 2332 480 030 6248 5 3501 716 031 7288 5 4208 833 032 8274 5 5852 1 236 033 9462 5 6788 1 553 03410976 5 8849 2093 03515062 515779 5250 036 2332 6 -479 0 037 3531 6 -304 54 038 4031 6 -282 1 4 039 4716 6 -48 52 040 5321 6 566 185 041 6320 6 1 364 278 042 7405 6 2417 514 043 8765 6 3245 696 04411512 6 641 0 1 564 04518291 616433 5899 046 3530 7 572 1 39 047 5303 7 1858 377 048 6483 7 3068 625 049 7415 7 3523 744 050 8818 7 5607 1316 051 9775 7 661 1 1 684 05211639 7 821 2 2249 05317568 71881 1 7963 054 4701 8 1028 233 055 6918 8 3026 556 056 8275 8 4605 946 057 9330 8 5863 1 187 05810068 8 6923 1513 05910890 8 7466 1 646 06012102 8 9092 2142 06113064 810585 2651 06214347 811282 2882 06316161 813609 3826 06417832 815863 4400 06523603 823230 8206 066 1107 9-•1 663 0 067 3051 9 -977 33 068 4465 9 220 101 069 5535 9 1 079 240 070 6509 9 1989 387 071 7332 9 2809 573 072 7934 9 391 4 809 073 8618 9 4050 885 074 9092 9 5444 1 251 075 9803 9 5929 1 401 07610638 9 7269 1843 07711893 9 8188 2202 07813898 911389 3583 07919386 921086 9413 080 3183 10 -554 106 081 5497 1 0 1 075 296 082 6851 1 0 2529 541 083 7674 1 0 3188 664 084 8323 10 4207 906 085 8978 10 4851 1 057 086 9509 10 5605 1 182 08710054 10 6631 1 494 08810423 10 6443 1 506 08910932 10 5921 1 340 09011526 10 7467 1 738 09112150 10 8619 1 954 09212759 1 0 891 9 2217 09313473 10 9375 2158 09414281 1010971 2739 09515038 1011324 2888 09615959 1013032 351 1 09717046 1014121 4090 09818670 1015292 4712 09921205 1019081 6603 1 029174 103284814901 Fi g u r e A3:25-4 ST. JOHN'S: Demand C a l i b r a t i o n Data 0000 Demand C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 Mean AFTER TAX INCOME by Household TYPE 20 1170.0333.4527.31150. 20 2162.3342.1528.7920.5 20 3327.6570.8760.91085. 20 4230.3386.8570.8841.4 20 5339.7571.4785.81177. 20 6329.6555.8851.41578 20 7413.3632.9881.41471 20 8564.1883.91206.1745 20 9440.7695.9910.91364 2010603.7904.41212.1799 0000 Demand PARAMETERS by TYPE 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 01) 21 1 0- .492- . 1 24. 31 29. 1813. 160966. 1669.47170. 01 .268 21 2 0- .583- .246. 2886- .071 . 127372. 1 354.97162. 31 .301 21 3 o - .371- . 1 73. 2479. 0996. 051792. 91 167. 8327. 61 .289 21 4 0- .458- . 1 66. 3655. 0924. 240378. 99103. 5230. 31 .288 21 5 o - .323- . 1 05. 2622. 2369. 079982. 31188. 2339. 71 .289 21 6 o - .554- .228. 3221 - .026. 1738108 .3119. 9329. 61 .681 21 7 0- .537- .109. 4027. 2534. 3274130 .5154. 641 3. 31 .684 21 8 0- .365- . 1 38. 2944. 1 526. 1148121 .1291. 7564. 1 1 .678 21 9 0- .458- .180. 3125. 0559. 1495113 .9194. 6440. 71 .759 21 10 0- .354- .131. 3171 . 2025. 1771123 .4318. 7603. 71 .690 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 02) 22 1 o - .315- . 1 47. 1834. 2023- .08581 . 54184. 0333. 41 .285 22 2 0- .340- . 1 33. 21 33. 2757- .02291. 09181. 9342. 1 1 .275 22 3 0- .215- .097. 1 092. 3061- .24394. 65361 . 2570. 81 .294 22 4 0- .293- . 1 45. 1893. 1757- .04786. 78220. 9386. 81 .300 22 5 0- .220- .091 . 1 293. 3288- .17496. 94359. 2571 . 41 .297 22 6 o - .447- . 1 22. 3760. 2103. 2586145 .0249. 3555. 81 .703 22 7 0- .380- .116. 3605. 2337. 2305141 .7316. 8632. 91 .687 22 8 o - .271- . 1 47. 1219. 0851- .334140 .2521. 1883. 91 .692 22 9 0- .350- .030. 4398. 4722. 3900143 .5362. 7695. 91 .709 221 0 0- .281- . 1 35. 2007. 1 390-.102148 .0525. 4904. 41 .710 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 03) 23 1 0- .235- .099. 1 343. 2775- .21897. 69325. 1 527. 31 .270 23 2 0- .232- . 1 03. 0963. 281 7- .40695. 84326. 5528. 71 .288 23 3 0- . 1 68-.081 . 0706. 2904- .42499. 17510. 3760. 91 .287 23 4 0- .236- .110. 1 284. 2634- .201103 .1351. 9570. 81 .301 23 5 o - .181- . 1 07. 0649. 2175- .464109 .0518. 6785. 81 .301 23 6 0- .316- .093. 2484. 2985. 0385158 .9469. 2851 . 41 .694 23 7 o - .374- .167. 2451 . 0996- .039192 .8443. 6881 . 41 .710 23 8 0- .255- .121. 1973. 1810- .104179 .7725. 01 206 • .708 23 9 0- .318- . 1 34. 2953. 2395. 1865164 .0502. 091 0. 91 .749 231 0 0- .245- .075. 2734. 3958. 1896174 .3736. 61212 • .707 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 04) 24 1 0- . 1 46-.061 . 0640. 371 2- .401-1 34 .0788. 01 1 50 • .284 24 2 0- .179- . 1 04. 0989. 2476- .266126 .7609. 9920. 51 .287 24 3 o - .138- .058. 0779. 4141- .247116 .0753. 41085 • .298 24 4 o - . 1 77-.061 . 0976. 481 0- .212116 .2557. 5841 . 41 .284 24 5 o - . 1 32-.065. 0519. 3195- .422120 .5823. 21 1 77 .287 24 6 o - .206- .085. 0875. 3725- .381195 .51005 . 1 578 • .687 24 7 o - .240- . 1 04. 0098. 2820- .588206 .4898. 61 471 • .722 24 8 o - .218- .098. 1116. 2754- .204219 .91101 .1745 • .726 24 9 o - .290- . 1 40. 21 42. 2332. 0731221 .1784. 01 364 • .764 241 0 o - .246- . 1 42. 0676. 0653- .403255 .41098 .1799 • .722 F i g u r e A3:25-4(cont) ST. JOHN'S: Demand C a l i b r a t i o n Data 0000 Demand C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL" DWELLINGS 30 1 35 1 1 3035 158 30 2 70 1 1 3036 36 30 3 79 1 1 3037 58 30 4 88 1 1 3038 70 30 5 97 1 1 3039 80 30 6 108 1 1 3040 86 30 7 1 23 1 1 3041 92 30 8 1 39 1 1 3042 97 30 9 1 74 1 1 3043 104 3010 91 2 1 3044 1 1 3 301 1 55 3 1 3045 123 301 2 81 3 1 3046 141 3013 1 04 3 1 3047 180 3014 1 47 3 1 3048 107 3015 45 4 1 3049 161 3016 66 4 1 3050 120 3017 74 4 1 3051 140 3018 82 4 1 3052 148 3019 92 4 1 3053 163 3020 101 4 1 3054 201 3021 1 07 4 1 3055 45 3022 1 1 4 4 1 3056 72 3023 1 20 4 1 3057 85 3024 125 4 1 3058 98 3025 1 32 4 1 3059 1 04 3026 141 4 1 3060 109 3027 1 58 4 1 3061 1 1 5 3028 47 5 1 3062 1 20 3029 77 5 1 3063 125 3030 1 02 5 1 3064 1 29 3031 1 1 3 5 1 3065 133 3032 1 20 5 1 3066 137 3033 1 27 5 1 3067 141 3034 1 33 5 1 3068 1 44 0000 ZONAL Data 40 1 7557 34 40 21 1300 40 4 9264 99 40 5 8835 0000 Parameters 501 1 .35 501 2 .95 5016 .35 501 71 .35 50201 .241 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n Data 70 1 1 .471 0 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 21 .5850 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 31 .7150 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0. 70 41 .7320 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0. 70 51 .7980 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0. 70 60 .0 0 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0. 563 5 1 3069 1 48 4 2 1 2 3070 152 4 2 1 2 3071 156 4 2 1 2 3072 159 4 2 1 2 3073 163 4 2 1 2 3074 167 4 2 1 2 3075 1 70 4 2 1 2 3076 1 76 4 2 1 2 3077 1 84 4 2 1 2 3078 1 92 4 2 1 2 3079 208 4 2 1 2 3080 257 4 2 1 2 3081 25 5 2 2 2 3082 39 5 2 2 2 3083 52 5 2 3 2 3084 64 5 2 3 2 3085 72 5 2 3 2 3086 81 5 2 3 2 3087 89 5 2 3 2 3088 98 5 2 4 2 3089 1 07 5 2 4 2 3090 1 1 6 5 2 4 2 3091 1 26 5 2 4 2 3092 1 36 5 2 4 2 3093 1 43 5 2 4 2 3094 1 49 5 2 4 2 3095 1 55 5 2 4 2 3096 161 5 2 4 2 3097 • 169 5 2 4 2 3098 1 78 5 2 4 2 3099 195 5 2 4 2 31 0 234 5 2 4 2 4 2 52 40 311075 71 )5 40 612429 82 501 3 0.0 5018 0.0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 771 01 .000 99. 7 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 152431 .000119. 3 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 110661 .000128. 8 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 91 531 .000129. 3 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 86371 .000116. 7 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 00 .0 0. 0 F i g u r e A3:25-4(cont) ST. JOHN'S: Demand C a l i b r a t i o n Data 0000 Supply C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL" MODIFIED HOUSEHOLDS 10 1 1704 1 -293 23 1051 9775 7 661 1 1684 10 2 3619 1 709 177 105211639 7 8212 2249 10 3 8537 1 6567 2095 105317568 718811 7963 10 4 1 187 2 -253 18 1054 4701 8 1028 233 10 5 2417 2 738 161 1055 6918 8 3026 556 10 6 391 1 2 2590 492 1056 8275 8 4605 946 10 7 5653 2 4798 1 052 1057 9330 8 5863 1 187 10 8 9325 2 9841 3079 105810068 8 6923 1513 10 9 2575 3 281 1 16 105910890 8 7466 1646 1010 4673 3 2799 553 106012102 8 9092 21 42 101 1 601 7 3 4122 800 106113064 810585 2651 1012 6994 3 5451 1101 106214347 811282 2882 1013 7943 3 6340 1312 106316161 813609 3826 1014 9053 3 7771 1669 106417832 815863 4400 101510693 3 981 2 2293 106523603 823230 8206 101614044 314587 4245 1066 1107 9-1663 0 1017 458 4--1410 0 1067 3051 9 -977 33 1018 1976 4 -355 32 1068 4465 9 220 101 1019 2848 4 -139 64 1069 5535 9 1079 240 1020 3555 4 310 84 1070 6509 9 1989 387 1021 4097 4 1 339 279 1071 7332 9 2809 573 1022 4670 4 1510 286 1072 7934 9 3914 809 1023 5640 4 2654 51 1 1073 8618 9 4050 885 1 024 6534 4 3826 780 1074 9092 9 5444 1 251 1 025 7680 4 51 20 1 150 1075 9803 9 5929 1 401 102610407 4 9337 2778 107610638 9 7269 1843 1 027 1931 5--1 1 40 43 107711893 9 8188 2202 1 028 441 2 5 1 160 300 107813898 911389 3583 1 029 541 3 5 2332 480 107919386 921086 941 3 1030 6248 5 3501 716 1080 3183 10 -554 1 06 1 031 7288 5 4208 833 1081 5497 10 1075 296 1 032 8274 5 5852 1 236 1082 6851 10 2529 541 1 033 9462 5 6788 1 553 1083 7674 10 3188 664 103410976 5 8849 2093 1084 8323 10 4207 906 103515062 515779 5250 1085 8978 10 4851 1057 1036 2332 6 -479 0 1086 9509 10 5605 1 182 1 037 3531 6 -304 54 108710054 10 6631 1494 1038 4031 6 -282 14 108810423 10 6443 1506 1039 4716 6 -48 52 108910932 10 5921 1340 1040 5321 6 566 185 109011526 10 7467 1738 1 041 6320 6 1 364 278 109112150 10 8619 1954 1 042 7405 6 2417 514 109212759 10 8919 221 7 1043 8765 6 3245 696 109313473 10 9375 21 58 104411512 6 641 0 1 564 109414281 1010971 2739 104518291 616433 5899 109515038 1011324 2888 1 046 3530 7 572 139 109615959 1013032 351 1 1 047 5303 7 1858 377 109717046 1014121 4090 1048 6483 7 3068 625 109818670 1015292 471 2 1049 741 5 7 3523 744 109921205 1019081 6603 1050 8818 7 5607 1316 11 029174 103284814901 F i g u r e A3:26-4 ST. JOHN'S: Supply C a l i b r a t i o n Data 0000 Supply C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 Mean AFTER TAX INCOME by Household TYPE 20 1170.0333.4527.31150. 20 2162.3342.1528.7920.5 20 3327.6570.8760.91085. 20 4230.3386.8570.8841.4 20 5339.7571.4785.81177. 20 6329.6555.8851.41578 20 7413.3632.9881.41471 20 8564.1883.91206.1745 20 9440.7695.9910.91364 2010603.7904.41212.1799 0000 Demand PARAMETERS by TYPE 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 01) 21 1 0- .492- . 1 24. 31 29. 1813. 160966. 1669.47170. 01 .268 21 2 0- .583- .246. 2886- .071 . 127372. 1354.97162. 31 .301 21 3 0- .371- . 1 73. 2479. 0996. 051792. 91167. 8327. 61 .289 21 4 o - .458- . 1 66. 3655. 0924. 240378. 99103. 5230. 31 .288 21 5 0- .323- .105. 2622. 2369. 079982. 31188. 2339. 71 .289 21 6 o - .554- .228. 3221- .026. 1738108 .3119. 9329. 61 .681 21 7 o - .537- .109. 4027. 2534. 3274130 .5154. 641 3. 31 .684 21 8 0- .365- . 1 38. 2944. 1 526. 1148121 .1291. 7564. 1 1 .678 21 9 o - .458- .180. 3125. 0559. 1495113 .9194. 6440. 71 .759 2110 o - .354- .131. 3171 . 2025. 1771123 .4318. 7603. 71 .690 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 02) 22 1 o - .315- .147. 1834. 2023- .08581. 54184. 0333. 41 .285 22 2 o - .340- . 1 33. 2133. 2757- .02291. 09181. 9342. 1 1 .275 22 3 0- .215- .097. 1 092. 3061- .24394. 65361. 2570. 81 .294 22 4 0- .293- . 145. 1893. 1757- .04786. 78220. 9386. 81 .300 22 5 0- .220- .091 . 1 293. 3288- .17496. 94359. 2571 . 41 .297 22 6 o - .447- .122. 3760. 21 03. 2586145 .0249. 3555. 81 .703 22 7 0- .380- .116. 3605. 2337. 2305141 .7316. 8632. 91 .687 22 8 o - .271- . 1 47. 1219. 0851- .334140 .2521. 1883. 91 .692 22 9 0- .350- .030. 4398. 4722. 3900143 .5362. 7695. 91 .709 221 0 o - .281- .135. 2007. 1 390-.102148 .0525. 4904. 41 .710 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 03) 23 1 0- .235- .099. 1 343 . 2775- .21897. 69325. 1 527. 31 .270 23 2 o - .232- . 1 03. 0963. 2817- .40695. 84326. 5528. 71 .288 23 3 o - . 1 68-.081 . 0706. 2904- .42499. 17510. 3760. 91 .287 23 4 o - .236- .110. 1 284. 2634- .201103 .1351 . 9570. 81 .301 -23 5 o - .181- .107. 0649. 21 75-.464109 .0518. 6785. 81 .301 23 6 o - .316- .093. 2484. 2985. 0385158 .9469. 2851 . 41 .694 23 7 o - .374- .167. 2451 . 0996- .039192 .8443. 6881 . 41 .710 23 8 0- .255- .121. 1 973. 1 8 1 0 - .104179 .7725. 01 206 • .708 23 9 o - .318- . 1 34. 2953. 2395. 1865164 .0502. 091 0. 91 .749 231 0 o - .245- .075. 2734. 3958. 1896174 .3736. 61212 • .707 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 04) 24 1 0- . 1 46-. 061 . 0640. 3712- .401134 .0788. 01 1 50 .284 24 2 o - .179- . 1 04. 0989. 2476- .266126 .7609. 9920. 51 .287 24 3 o - . 1 38-.058. 0779. 4141- .247116 .0753. 41 085 • .298 24 4 o - . 1 77-. 061 . 0976. 481 0- .212116 .2557. 5841 . 41 .284 24 5 o - . 1 32-.065. 0519. 3195- .422120 .5823. 21 1 77 • .287 24 6 o - .206- .085. 0875. 3725- .381195 .51005 . 1 578 .687 24 7 o - .240- . 1 04. 0098. 2820- .588206 .4898. 61471 • .722 24 8 o - .218- .098. 1116. 2754- .204219 .91101 .1745 • .726 24 9 o - .290- .140. 2142. 2332. 0731221 .1784. 01364 • .764 2410 o - .246- .142. 0676. 0653- .403255 .41098 .1799 • .722 F i g u r e A3:26-4(cont) ST. JOHN'S: Supply C a l i b r a t i o n Data 566 0000 Supply C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL" DWELLINGS 30 1 34 1 1 3025 76 1 2 3049 87 4 2 30 2 50 1 1 3026 80 1 2 3050 92 4 2 30 3 62 1 1 3027 84 1 2 3051 96 4 2 30 4 72 1 1 3028 88 1 2 3052 100 4 2 30 5 82 1 1 3029 92 1 2 3053 1 04 4 2 30 6 92 1 1 3030 96 1 2 3054 109 4 2 30 7 101 1 1 3031 100 1 2 3055 1 1 3 4 2 30 8 1 1 7 1 1 3032 109 1 2 3056 1 1 7 4 2 30 9 1 54 1 1 3033 1 18 1 2 3057 121 4 2 301 0 100 2 1 3034 138 1 2 3058 1 25 4 2 301 1 64 3 1 3035 164 1 2 3059 1 29 4 2 301 2 96 3 1 3036 96 2 2 3060 1 33 4 2 301 3 139 3 1 3037 1 1 4 2 2 3061 1 39 4 2 3014 42 4 1 3038 1 35 2 2 3062 1 45 4 2 301 5 64 4 1 3039 82 3 2 3063 1 53 4 2 301 6 80 4 1 3040 100 3 2 3064 1 74 4 2 301 7 94 4 1 3041 108 3 2 3065 37 5 2 3018 108 4 1 3042 1 1 2 3 2 3066 49 5 2 301 9 125 4 1 3043 1 1 7 3 2 3067 68 5 2 3020 162 4 1 3044 131 3 2 3068 92 5 2 3021 94 5 1 3045 38 4 2 3069 1 1 7 5 2 3022 35 1 2 3046 56 4 2 3070 1 43 5 2 3023 52 1 2 3047 71 4 2 3071 181 5 2 3024 67 1 2 3048 83 4 2 0000 ZONAL Data 40 1 7557 34 40 211300 52 40 311075 71 40 4 9264 99 40 5 8835 1 05 40 612429 82 0000 Parameters 50 1 .0 50 2 . 1 501 1 .35 501 2 .95 501 3 42. 501 6 .35 501 71 .35 5018 41 . 50201.241 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n Data 70 1 1 . 1190. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 75900 .943 96. 2 70 21 .2120. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 153551 .000 86. 3 70 31 .2800. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 102171 .000 92. 5 70 41 .2440. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 88891 .000100. 0 70 51 . 1250. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 85341 .000109. 5 70 61 .4860. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 98381 .000101. 1 70 71 .4670. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 77870 .932120. 3 70 81 .5650. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 151510 .921120. 4 70 91 .7140. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 111990 .933125. 2 701 01 .6240. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 89230 .978123. 1 701 1 1 .6940. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 72031 .000105. 1 701 21 .9300. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 0. 0 96521 .000126. 4 Fi g u r e A3:26-4(cont) ST. JOHN'S: Supply C a l i b r a t i o n Data 567 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" MODIFIED HOUSEHOLDS and BASE Data 0 1 1704 1 -292 23 21 .235 57. 2 0 2 3619 1 709 177 9991 .430 68. 8 0 3 8537 1 6567 2095 181 .233123. 1 0 4 1 187 2 -252 18 141 .234 47. 6 0 5 2417 2 738 161 1 1 1 .325 79. 8 0 6 3911 2 2590 492 9991 .430 76. 6 0 7 5653 2 4798 1 052 9991 .430 80. 8 0 8 9325 2 9841 3079 131 .156144. 6 0 9 2575 3 281 1 16 151 .194 69. 6 010 4673 3 2799 553 161 .306 98. 1 011 6017 3 4122 800 51 .299 99. 8 012 6994 3 5451 1101 9991 .430 79. 8 013 7943 3 6340 1312 9991 .430 82. 1 014 9053 3 7771 1 669 9991 .430' 82. 2 01510693 3 9812 2293 121 .261112. 3 01614044 31 4587 4245 91 .140157. 0 017 458 4- 1409 0 00 .0 0. 0 018 1976 4 -354 32 31 . 1 8 1 66. 4 019 2848 4 -138 64 9991 .430 71. 1 020 3555 4 310 84 9991 .430 76. 2 021 4097 4 1 339 279 41 .309 88. 4 022 4670 4 1510 286 9991 .430 74. 4 023 5640 4 2654 51 1 9991 .430 82. 0 024 6534 4 3826 780 171 .253108. 8 025 7680 4 5120 1 150 71 .248116. 4 02610407 4 9337 2778 191 .194136. 2 027 1931 5- 1 1 39 43 1 1 .282 40. 7 028 4412 5 1 1 60 300 9991 .430 75. 1 029 5413 5 2332 480 9991 .430 80. 7 030 6248 5 3501 716 9991 .430 82. 2 031 7288 5 4208 833 61 .251106. 4 032 8274 5 5852 1 236 21 1 .266110. 3 033 9462 5 6788 1 553 101 .258116. 3 03410976 5 8849 2093 81 .216130. 3 03515062 51 5779 5250 201 .127162. 8 036 2332 6 -478 0 231 .581 69. 7 037 3531 6 -303 54 471 .650 99. 5 038 4031 6 -281 1 4 481 .630114. 9 039 4716 6 -47 52 271 .697121. 1 040 5321 6 566 185 501 .687131 . 6 041 6320 6 1 364 278 9991 .870123. 9 042 7405 6 2417 514 9991 .870131. 9 043 8765 6 3245 696 321 .707157. 7 04411512 6 641 0 1 564 371 .716166. 1 04518291 616433 5899 601 .696191. 6 046 3530 7 572 139 671 .659 95. 8 047 5303 7 1858 377 9991 .870116. 1 048 6483 7 3068 625 9991 .870122. 2 049 7415 7 3523 744 9991 .870122. 0 050 8818 7 5607 1316 421 .706162. 0 F i g u r e A3:27-4 ST. JOHN'S: MODIFIED P o l i c y Dataset 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" MODIFIED HOUSEHOLDS and BASE Data 051. 9775 7 661 1 1684 9991 .870155. 3 05211639 7 8212 2249 381 .730197. 3 05317568 718811 7963 701 .716206. 7 054 4701 8 1028 233 241 .604 91. 2 055 6918 8 3026 556 491 .677124. 2 056 8275 8 4605 946 681 .697132. 7 057 9330 8 5863 1 187 9991 .870118. 0 05810068 8 6923 1513 9991 .870119. 6 05910890 8 7466 1646 9991 .870122. 7 06012102 8 9092 21 42 541 .700157. 0 06113064 810585 2651 691 .695167. 9 06214347 811282 2882 9991 .870153. 6 06316161 813609 3826 61 1 .687197. 9 06417832 815863 4400 621 .699207. 7 06523603 823230 8206 9991 .870215. 9 066 1107 9-1662 0 451 .246 39. 2 067 3051 9 -976 33 461 .611 75. 1 068 4465 9 220 101 261 .626108. 4 069 5535 9 1079 240 281 .693124. 4 070 6509 9 1989 387 291 .714132. 2 071 7332 9 2809 573 51 1 .712138. 3 072 7934 9 3914 809 301 .723139. 6 073 8618 9 4050 885 9991 .870126. 5 074 9092 9 5444 1251 531 .717150. 5 075 9803 9 5929 1401 551 .700161. 3 07610638 9 7269 1843 571 .693171 . 6 07711893 9 8188 2202 591 .710184. 4 07813898 911389 3583 631 .682214. 7 07919386 921086 941 3 71 1 .762266. 0 080 3183 10 -553 1 06 661 .544 63. 9 081 5497 10 1075 296 251 .609103. 6 082 6851 10 2529 541 391 .701118. 4 083 7674 10 3188 664 9991 .870111 . 2 084 8323 10 4207 906 9991 .870116. 1 085 8978 10 4851 1057 9991 .870120. 3 086 9509 10 5605 1 182 361 .726140. 3 08710054 10 6631 1494 521 .713144. 9 08810423 10 6443 1 506 31 1 .721145. 5 08910932 10 5921 1 340 401 .731146. 3 09011526 10 7467 1738 9991 .870132. 9 09112150 10 8619 1954 41 1 .721157. 1 09212759 10 8919 2217 561 .687166. 7 09313473 10 9375 2158 331 .699169. 4 09414281 1010971 2739 431 .721170. 2 09515038 1011324 2888 581 .706180. 2 09615959 1013032 351 1 441 .715189. 8 09717046 1014121 4090 341 .725201. 0 09818670 1015292 471 2 351 .675231. 6 09921205 1019081 6603 641 .721252. 4 1 029174 103284814901 9991 .870302. 8 F i g u r e A3:27-4 ST. JOHN'S: MODIFIED P o l i c y Dataset 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 Mean AFTER TAX INCOME by 20 1170.0333.4527.31150. 20 2162.3342.1528.7920.5 20 3327.6570.8760.91085. 20 4230.3386.8570.8841 .4 20 5339.7571.4785.81177. Household TYPE 20 6329.6555 20 7413 20 8564 20 9440 2010603 8851 .41 578 3632.9881.41471 1883.91206.1745 7695.9910.91364 7904.41212.1799 0000 Demand PARAMETERS by TYPE 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 01 ) 21 1 o - .492- . 1 24 .3129. 1813. 160966. 1669.47170. 01 .268 21 2 0- .583- .246 .2886- .071 . 127372. 1354.97162. 31 .301 21 3 o - .371- . 173 .2479. 0996. 051792. 91167. 8327. 61 .289 21 4 0- .458- . 166 .3655. 0924. 240378. 99103. 5230. 31 .288 21 5 o - .323- . 1 05 .2622. 2369. 079982. 31188. 2339. 71 .289 21 6 o - .554- .228 .3221- .026. 1738108 .3119. 9329. 61 .681 21 7 0- .537- .109 .4027. 2534. 3274130 .5154. 641 3. 31 .684 21 8 o - .365- . 1 38 .2944. 1 526. 1148121 .1291 . 7564. 1 1 .678 21 9 o - .458- .180 .3125. 0559. 1495113 .9194. 6440. 71 .759 21 10 o - .354- .131 .3171. 2025. 1771123 .4318. 7603. 71 .690 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 02) 22 1 o - .315- .147 .1834. 2023- .08581 . 54184. 0333. 41 .285 22 2 0- .340- .133 .2133. 2757- .02291 . 09181. 9342. 1 1 .275 22 3 0- .215- .097 .1092. 3061- .24394. 65361. 2570. 81 .294 22 4 0- .293- . 1 45 .1893. 1757- .04786. 78220. 9386. 81 .300 22 5 0- .220- .091 .1293. 3288- . 17496. 94359. 2571 . 41 .297 22 6 o - .447- . 1 22 .3760. 2103. 2586145 .0249. 3555. 81 .703 22 7 o - .380- .116 .3605. 2337. 2305141 .7316. 8632. 91 .687 22 8 0- .271- . 1 47 .1219. 0851- .334140 .2521. 1883. 91 .692 22 9 0- .350- .030 .4398. 4722. 3900143 .5362. 7695. 91 .709 2210 o - .281- .135 .2007. 1390- . 102148 .0525. 4904. 41 .710 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 03) 23 1 0- .235- .099 .1343. 2775- .21897. 69325. 1527. 31 .270 23 2 o - .232- . 103 .0963. 281 7- .40695. 84326. 5528. 71 .288 23 3 o - . 168-.081 .0706. 2904- .42499. 17510. 3760. 91 .287 23 4 0- .236- .110 .1284. 2634- .201103 .1351. 9570. 81 .301 23 5 o - .181- . 107 .0649. 21 75- .464109 .0518. 6785. 81 .301 23 6 0- .316- .093 .2484. 2985. 0385158 .9469. 2851 . 41 .694 23 7 o - .374- . 1 67 .2451. 0996- .039192 .8443. 6881 . 41 .710 23 8 0- .255- .121 .1973. 1810- .104179 .7725. 01206 • .708 23 9 o - .318- . 1 34 .2953. 2395. 1865164 .0502. 0910. 91 .749 2310 0- .245- .075 .2734. 3958. 1896174 .3736. 61212 • .707 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 04) 24 1 0- . 1 46-.061 .0640. 3712- .401134 .0788. 01 1 50 • .284 24 2 o - . 1 79-. 104 .0989. 2476- .266126 .7609. 9920. 51 .287 24 3 0- .138- .058 .0779. 4141- .247116 .0753. 41085 • .298 24 4 o - . 1 77-.061 .0976. 481 0- .212116 .2557. 5841 . 41 .284 24 5 o - . 1 32-.065 .0519. 31 95- .422120 .5823. 21 1 77 • .287 24 6 o - .206- .085 .0875. 3725- .381195 .51005 .1578 • .687 24 7 o - .240- . 104 .0098. 2820- .588206 .4898. 61 471 • .722 24 8 o - .218- .098 .1116. 2754- .204219 .91101 .1745 • .726 24 9 o - .290- . 1 40 .2142. 2332. 0731221 .1784. 01364 • .764 2410 o - .246- . 1 42 .0676. 0653- .403255 .41098 .1799 • .722 Fi g u r e A3:27-4(cont) ST. JOHN'S: MODIFIED P o l i c y Dataset 570 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL " DWELLINGS 30 1 34 1 1 3025 76 30 2 50 1 1 3026 80 30 3 62 1 1 3027 84 30 4 72 1 1 3028 88 30 5 82 1 1 3029 92 30 6 92 1 1 3030 96 30 7 101 1 1 3031 100 30 8 1 17 1 1 3032 109 30 9 1 54 1 1 3033 1 18 301 0 100 2 1 3034 138 301 1 64 3 1 3035 1 64 301 2 96 3 1 3036 96 301 3 1 39 3 1 3037 1 1 4 3014 42 4 1 3038 1 35 301 5 64 4 1 3039 82 301 6 80 4 1 3040 100 301 7 94 4 1 3041 1 08 3018 108 4 1 3042 1 12-301 9 1 25 4 1 3043 1 17 3020 1 62 4 1 3044 131 3021 94 5 1 3045 38 3022 35 1 2 3046 56 3023 52 1 2 3047 71 3024 67 1 2 3048 83 0000 ZONAL Data 40 1 7557 34 40 211300 40 4 9264 99 40 5 8835 0000 Parameters 50 10 .0 50 20 . 1 00 50 30 .800 50 40 .400 50 50 .810 50 60 .375 501 1 0 .350 501 20 .950 501 60 .350 501 71 .350 50201 .241 1 2 3049 87 4 2 1 2 3050 92 4 2 1 2 3051 96 4 2 1 2 3052 100 4 2 1 2 3053 104 4 2 1 2 3054 109 4 2 1 2 3055 1 1 3 4 2 1 2 3056 1 1 7 4 2 1 2 3057 121 4 2 1 2 3058 1 25 4 2 1 2 3059 1 29 4 2 2 2 3060 1 33 4 2 2 2 3061 139 4 2 2 2 3062 1 45 4 2 3 2 3063 1 53 4 2 3 2 3064 174 4 2 3 2 3065 37 5 2 3 2 3066 49 5 2 3 2 3067 68 5 2 3 2 3068 92 5 2 4 2 3069 1 1 7 5 2 4 2 3070 1 43 5 2 4 2 3071 181 5 2 4 2 2 40 31 1 075 71 5 40 612429 82 50 70 .962 50 80 .986 501 3 67.0 5018 77.0 F i g u r e A3:27-4(cont) ST. JOHN'S: MODIFIED P o l i c y Dataset 571 SASKATOON 5 7 2 Number of Zones: 05 D i s t r i b u t i o n of Census T r a c t s to Zones: Zone 1961 1971 1 6 7 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 2 2 5 1 1 A - 1 T o t a l 16 21 note: "A" i n d i c a t e s annexed t r a c t s . : annexed census t r a c t s i n c l u d e d i n Zone 4 S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : monthly rent value income access 1961 1971 1961 1971 1 961 1971 1 71 . 86. 10,769. 14,629. 2,914. 7, 103. 25 2 84. 105. 14,010. 18,347. 3,510. 8,441. 29 3 79. 99. 10, 170. 16,166. 3,491. 8,459. 54 4 100. 113. 17, 567. 22,878. 4,809. 10,837. 65 5 57. 110. 20,119. 23,500. 2,590. 7,015. 5 A 100. 15,221. 7,696. 73 t o t a l 83. 101. 13, 515. 18, 177. 3,676. 8,675. 43 T o t a l Dwellings in Zones: 1 961 1 971 d w e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g s %CMA stock NEW %new %CMA new 1 7,344. 10,145. 26.3 2,904. 28 .6 20. 1 2 5,862. 6,135. 15.9 803. 13 . 1 5. 6 3 5,700. 7,540. 19.5 2,466. 32 .7 17. 1 4 4,261. 10,925. 28.3 6,647. 60 .8 46. 0 5 951 . 1,225. 3.2 534. 43 .6 3. 7 A 2,625. 6.8 1 , 086. 41 .4 7. 5 t o t a l 24, 118. 38,595. 100.0 14,440. 37 .4 100. 0 source : program "CZONE.FORT": f i l e s SAS61.INPUT and SAS71.INPUT. F i g u r e A3:01~5 SASKATOON: Zonal C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (5 zones) 573 F i g u r e A3:02-5 SASKATOON: C l u s t e r i n g (5 zones) 574 Demographic C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s : P o p u l a t i o n [1] 1961: 95,526. [2] 1971: 126,450. Households [1] 1961: 25,912. [2] 1971: 38,635. S o u r c e s : [ l ] S t a t i s t i c s Canada. CT 95-535 CT-20 :[2] S t a t i s t i c s Canada. CT 95-728 s e r i e s A Mean Household Incomes: 1971 Census [3] 1974 SHU data [4 ] d e f l a t o r SHU d e f l a t e d 8,675. 10,619. 0.8169 8,800. Sources: [3] S t a t i s t i c s Canada. CT 95-731 s e r i e s B , v a r i a b l e 49 : [ 4 ] f i l e SAS.SHU SHU d a t a s e t : Sample s i z e Sum of the WEIGHTS RATIO of SHU weights to a c t u a l households 3925. 42,930. 1.11117 "Model" Households: # SHU a c t u a l usehold mean # SHU "model" h'hol d s / h'holds type income h'holds h'holds model /"model" 1 • 7,978. 4,533. 1 1 . 412. 370. 2 11,085. 15,922. 37. 430. 387. 3 9,425. 3,432. 8. 429. 386. 4 11,039. 5,024. 12. 419. 377. 5 5,690. 3,624. 8. 453. 408 6 5,024. 3,761. 9. 418. 376. 7 7,014. 3,491. 8. 436. 392. 8 3,250. 3,143. 7. 449. 404. source: program "HH1.FORT" : f i l e SAS.SHU Fi g u r e A3:03-5 SASKATOON: HOUSEHOLD C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . 575 T o t a l 1961 d w e l l i n g s : 24,811. Rental : 7,192. Owner-occupier : 16,928. S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : zone rent #rental value #o-o annual u n i t s u n i t s r e n t / v a l u e 1 72. 2,372. 10,521 . 4,972. 0.0816 2 84. 1,835. 13,954. 4,027. 0.0720 3 80. 1,198. 10,200. 4,502. 0.0936 4 100. 904. 16,616. 3,357. 0.0720 5 57. 883. 20,119. 68. 0.0336 t o t a l 78. 7, 192. 12,499. 16,928. 0.0756 source: program "D61.FORT" : dataset SAS61.INPUT. 1961 "Model" Dw e l l i n g s : d e r i v a t i o n : 1961 Dwellings : TOTAL : RATIO Of EXISTING unannexed/TOTAL : TOTAL 1961 Dwellings EXISTING i n 1971 : TOTAL 1961 Dwellings ADJUSTED f o r ANNEXED 1971 "model" Dwellings 1971 RATIO ACTUAL/"model" 1961 "model" Dwellings d i s t r i b u t i o n : zone d w e l l i n g s 1 2 3 4 5 7,344. 5,862. 5,700. 4,261. 951 . # "model 1 d w e l l i n g 20. 16. 16. 12. 3. a c t u a l / "model" 367. 366. 356. 355. 317. 24,118. 93.8% 24,155. 25,759. 1 00. 386. 67. •RHS"/actual SERVICES c a l c u l a t e d weighted 1.0372 0.9405 1.0616 0.9628 0.9303 1.0268 0.9311 1.0510 0.9532 0.9209 e r r o r of f i t 0.02069 source: program "D61.FORT" : dataset SAS61.INPUT. Fi g u r e A3:04-5 SASKATOON: 1961 Dwel l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , OWNER/OCCUPIER MODEL RENTAL MODEL O.L.S. W.L.S. CONSTANT 7.1313 5.5278 (17.8) (14.2) MULTIPLE 0.5483 0.5491 (5.42) (5.90) CONSTRUCTED -.2168 -.2699 PRE 20 (2.03) (2.90) 20-45 -.2969 -.2621 (3.31) (3.47) CONDITION 0.3587 0.3033 (3.59) (3.66) LN ROOMS 0.6543 1.4367 (5.64) (12.4) LN INCOME 0.1284 0.1671 (2.84) (3.69) ACCESS -.0036 -.0019 (2.60) (1.79) R2 0.52 0.99 OBSERVATIONS 154 154 note : " t " s t a t i s t i s i n bracke t s : data source: SAS61.EA MEANS: LN INCOME 8.0705 MULTIPLE 0.2400 ACCESS 36.8 O.L.S. W.L.S. 5.4186 5.7893 (13.4) (17.5) -.0717 -.0180 (0.68) (0.25) -.2866 -.2826 (2.65) (3.32) -.2311 -.2530 (2.45) (3.14) 0.0269 0.0317 (0.27) (0.36) 0.6609 0.5075 (5.26) (5.96) 0.0699 0.0569 (1.61) (1.51) -.0006 -.0015 (0.46) (1.22) 0.42 0.99 147 147 F i g u r e A3:05-5 SASKATOON: 1961 Hedonic Estimates 577 T o t a l 1971 d w e l l i n g s : 38,595. Rental : 15,715. Owner-occupier : 22,880. S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : zone rent #rental value #o-o annual u n i t s u n i t s r e n t / v a l u e 1 84. 4,495. 14,721. 5,655. 0.0684 2 1 05. 2,755. 18,178. 3,385. 0.0696 3 100. 2,205. 16, 132. 5,320. 0.0744 4 110. 5,065. 21,172. 8,495. 0.0624 5 110. 1,195. 23,500. 25. 0.0564 t o t a l 1 00. 15,715. 17,965. 22,880. 0.0672 source: program "D71.FORT" : dataset SAS71.INPUT. 1971 "Model" D w e l l i n g s : t o t a l number of "model" d w e l l i n g s : 100. d i s t r i b u t i o n : # "RHS"/actual SERVICES # "model" a c t u a l / zone d w e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g "model" c a l c u l a t e d weighted 1 10, 150. 27. 376. 1.0805 1.0984 2 6,140. 16. 384. 0.8716 0.8861 3 7,525. 14. 538. 0.9839 1.0058 4 13,560. 40. 339. 0.9449 0.9606 5 1,220. 3. 407. 0.8169 0.8305 385. e r r o r of f i t 0.111543 source: program "D71.FORT" : dataset SAS71.INPUT. Fi g u r e A3:06-5 SASKATOON: 1971 Dw e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . ["GAMMA" C a l i b r a t i o n Set] 578 T o t a l 1971 d w e l l i n g s : 38,595. B u i l t p r i o r 1961 : 24,145. B u i l t 1961.-1971 : 14,450. S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : zone rent #rental value #o-o annual u n i t s u n i t s r e n t / v a l u e 1 70. 3,159. 13,596. 4,089. 0.0612 2 88. 2,022. 17,967. 3,310. 0.0588 3 75. 1,305. 14,268. 3,754. 0.0636 4 89. 1,630. 19,189. 4,189. 0.0552 5 90. 669. 22,500. 18. 0.0480 99 1 26. 6,930. 21 ,922. 7,520. 0.0684 CMA 100. 15,715. 18,106. 22,880. 0.0660 source: program "D71.FORT" : dataset SAS71.INPUT. 1971 "Model" D w e l l i n g s : t o t a l number of "model" d w e l l i n g s : 100. d i s t r i b u t i o n : # "RHS"/actual SERVICES # "model" a c t u a l / zone d w e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g "model" c a l c u l a t e d weighted 1 7,248. 19. 382. 1.1738 1.1730 2 5,332. 14. 381 . 0.9369 0.9363 3 5,059. 13. 389. 1.1503 1.1495 4 5,819. 15. 388. 1.0334 1.0326 5 687. 2. 344. 0.9941 0.9934 99 14,450. 37. 391 . 0.8466 0.8460 385. e r r o r of f i t 0.01321 source: program "D71.FORT" : dataset SAS71.INPUT. F i g u r e A3:07-5 SASKATOON: 1971 Dw e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . ["BETA" C a l i b r a t i o n Set] OWNER/OCCUPIER MODEL RENTAL MODEL O.L.S. W.L.S. O.L.S. W.L.S. CONSTANT MULTIPLE CONSTRUCTION 51-60 46-50 20-45 PRE 20 FACILITIES LN INCOME LN ROOMS R2 OBSERVATIONS 7.930 (50.1) 0.1357 (3.96) -.1359 (5.10) -.3855 (9.94) -.3873 (12.7) -.4831 (11.9) 0.0447 (0.49) 0.0998 (6.26) 0.5559 (14.1) 0.39 1 1 33 7.798 (54.4) 0.1196 (3.47) -. 1565 (6.20) -.3721 (9.29) -.4089 (13.1) -.5201 (12.7) 0.1294 (1.58) 0. 1006 (6.80) 0.5866 (14.3) 0.98 1 1 33 5.007 (32.0) 0.0367 (1.27) -.2128 (6.67) -.2052 (4.19) -.2848 (7.97) -.3441 (7.69) 0.2411 (4.57) 0. 1808 (10.5) 0.2741 (9.58) 0.37 1056 5.099 (35.6) 0.0131 (0.45) -.1940 (5.83) -. 1772 (3.68) -.2464 (6.92) -.2929 (6.61) 0.2082 (4.15) 0. 1745 (10.8) 0.2652 (9.59) 0.95 1 056 WEIGHTED 20-45/PRE 20 -.4161 -.4424 -.3054 -.2625 note " t " s t a t i s t i s i n br a c k e t s data source: SAS.SHU weighted c o e f f i c i e n t f o r 20-45 and pre 20 used as a c t u a l census data combines these v a r i a b l e s MEANS LN INCOME MULTIPLE ACCESS 8.9699 0. 1050 35.0 F i g u r e A3:08-5 SASKATOON: 1971 Hedonic Estimates 580 adjustment v a l u e s : 1971 Census 18, 177. 101. 8,675. PRICE RENT INCOME R/V r a t i o : 0.0672 r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s and ALPHAs: O.L.S. MODEL 1974 SHU 30,374. 136. 10,619. d e f l a t o r 0.59844 0.74265 0 . 8 1690 P(j)/PN r a t i o : 0.97268 c o e f f i c i e n t s ALPHAS [1] CONSTANT (TYPE 1) DUMMY (TYPE 2) DUMMY (TYPE 3) DUMMY (TYPE 4) DUMMY (TYPE 5) DUMMY (TYPE 6) DUMMY (TYPE 7) DUMMY (TYPE 8) R2 OBSERVATIONS 2.7077 ( 121 . ) -.1515 (5.51 ) -.1247 (3.36) -.2470 (6.86) 0. 1527 (4.09) 0.4403 (11.8) 0. 1006 (2.57) 0.6611 (16.0) 0.22 2844 0.1449 0.1289 0.1324 0.1171 0.1747 0.2329 0.1658 0.2904 W.L.S. MODEL c o e f f i c i e n t s .71 45 (102.) ALPHAS [1] [2] 2 0.1510 0.1536 -.1779 (5.78) -.1663 (4.06) -.2895 (7.51) 0. 1594 (3.82) 0.4414 (10.9) 0.0449 (1.05) 0.6183 (14.2) 0.74 2844 0.1264 0.1287 0.1278 0.1301 0. 11 30 0. 1151 0.1771 0.1801 0.2247 0.2384 0.1579 0.1606 0.2802 0.2843 n o t e : [ l ] ALPHA values are c a l c u l a t e d as; ALPHA(1) = EXP(INTERCEPT) ALPHA(2)-(8) = EXP(INTERCEPT+COEFFICIENT) [2] ALPHA values a d j u s t e d as d e s c r i b e d i n S e c t i o n A1.32 [3] " t " values i n bra c k e t s F i g u r e A3:09-5 SASKATOON: Household ALPHAs r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s and ALPHAs R log( ) = lo g ( a ) + l o g ( Y ( i ) ) Y ( i ) O.L.S. MODEL W.L.S. MODEL ALPHAS [1] CONSTANT (TYPE 1) c o e f f i c i e n t 9.0849 (55.6) c o e f f i c i e n t 9. 1456 (54.6) at 0. mean [2] 1 439 lowest 0.1059 hig h e s t 0.2561 DUMMY (TYPE 2) . 0.0303 (1.34) 0.0365 (1.43) 0. 1 177 0. 0696 0.4486 DUMMY (TYPE 3) -.0087 (0.29) -.0433 (1.28) 0. 1 221 0. 0940 0.1964 DUMMY (TYPE 4) -.0553 (1.88) -.0665 (2.10) 0. 1065 0. 0735 0. 1870 DUMMY (TYPE 5) -.0595 (1.95) -.1275 (3.69) 0. 1616 0. 1015 0.2605 DUMMY (TYPE 6) 0.0749 (2.39) 0.0468 (1.36) 0. 21 03 0. 1 372 0.4685 DUMMY (TYPE 7) -.0364 (1.15) -. 1043 (3.00) 0. 1 422 0. 0986 0.2773 DUMMY (TYPE 8) -.0063 (0.17) -.1001 (2.52) 0. 2488 0. 1 549 0.4883 LN INCOME -.7141 (39.3) -.7212 (38.7) R2 0.49 0.83 OBSERVATIONS 2844 2844 note: [1] ALPHA values, are c a l c u l a t e d by the s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m program by s u b s t i t u t i n g the household's "model" incomes, a de s c r i b e d i n Se c t i o n A1.32. These are unadjusted v a l u e s . [2] c a l c u l a t e d by s u b s t i t u t i n g TYPEs mean income. [3] " t " values i n b r a c k e t s . F i g u r e A3:09-5(B) SASKATOON: Household ALPHAs [modified] 582 Operating and C a p i t a l C o s t s : Annual Annual Operating C a p i t a l Dwelling Year Costs Costs S t a r t s Weight Weighted Operating Costs Weighted C a p i t a l Costs 1961 700.0 922. - - - -1 962 710.0 913. 1 ,001 0. 072 51.1 65.7 1963 719.0 927. 1 , 1 53 0. 083 59.7 76.9 1964 735.0 •978. 1 ,526 0. 1 10 80.8 107.6 1 965 757.0 1 032. 1 ,784 0. 1 29 97.7 1 33. 1 1 966 777.0 1213. 1 ,275 0. 092 71 .5 111.6 1 967 811.0 1 320. 2, 1 53 0. 1 55 125.7 204.6 1968 859.0 1 524. 2,278 0. 1 64 140.9 249.9 1969 908.0 1815. 1 ,935 0. 1 39 126.2 252.3 1 970 970.0 1777. 259 0. 019 18.4 33.8 1 971 1025.0 1633. 498 0. 036 36.9 58.8 "Model" C o s t s : Annual Annual T o t a l Operating C a p i t a l Annual Costs Costs Cost PO PC PN QM 1 961 7 0 0 . 0 9 2 2 . 0 1 6 2 2 . o 0 . 4 3 2 0 . 5 6 8 1 . 0 0 0 decade weighted 8 0 9 . 0 1 2 9 4 . 0 21 0 3 . 0 0 . 5 0 0 0 . 8 0 0 1 . 3 0 0 47 1 971 1 0 2 5 . 0 1 6 3 3 . 0 2 6 5 8 . o 0 . 6 3 2 1 . 0 0 7 1 . 6 3 9 37 I F i g u r e A3:10-5 SASKATOON: P r i c e s , Costs and Q u a n t i t i e s [New C o n s t r u c t i o n ] 0000 GAMMA CALIBRATION 0000 INCOME by TYPE 20 1 7977 20 211084 20 3 9424 20 411038 20 5 5689 20 6 5024 20 7 7013 20 8 3249 0000 ALPHA by TYPE 21 1.1510 21 2.1264 21 3.1278 21 4.1130 21 5.1771 21 6.2347 21 7.1579 21 8.2802 0000 "MODEL" HOUSEHOLDS 10 1 2106 1 1051 7159 3 10 2 3882 1 1052 8516 3 10 3 4919 1 1053 9604 3 10 4 5877 1 105411111 3 10 5 6696 1 105513084 3 10 6 7539 1 105617252 3 10 7 8555 1 1057 3002 4 10 8 9557 1 1058 5209 4 10 910639 1 1059 6327 4 101012028 1 1060 7501 4 101116186 1 1061 8392 4 1012 503 2 1062 9321 4 1013 2492 2 106310885 4 1014 361 6 2 106411820 4 1015 4389 2 106513009 4 1016 5149 2 106614557 4 1017 5626 2 106717173 4 1018 6018 2 106825971 4 1019 6525 2 1069 1886 5 1020 681 4 2 1070 2775 5 1 021 7261 2 1071 3306 5 1022 7545 2 1072 3703 5 1023 7864 2 1073 4377 5 1024 8189 2 1074 5723 5 1 025 8428 2 1075 7535 5 1 026 8791 2 107616672 5 1 027 9090 2 1077 789 6 1028 9377 2 1078 1778 6 1029 9759 2 1079 2599 6 103010006 2 1080 3473 6 103110408 2 1081 4262 6 103210775 2 1082 5080 6 103311166 2 1083 6007 6 103411511 2 1084 8145 6 103511829 2 108513476 6 103612199 2 1086 1497 7 103712583 2 1087 3094 7 103813217 2 1088 4430 7 103913747 2 1089 5459 7 104014159 2 .. 1090 6541 7 104114703 2 1091 8211 7 104215371 2 109210649 7 104316208 2 109316316 7 104416839 2 1094 1035 8 104518257 2 1095 1511 8 104620400 2 1096 1786 8 104724523 2 1097 2068 8 104837327 2 1098 2847 8 1049 31 43 3 1099 3898 8 1050 5861 3 11 0 9725 8 Fig u r e A3:11-5 SASKATOON: "GAMMA" C a l i b r a t i o n Data 584 0000 GAMMA CALIBRATION 0000 "MODEL" Dwellings 30 1 15 12 1 3035 83 66 2 3069 83 66 4 30 2 30 24 1 3036 88 70 2 3070 85 68 4 30 3 42 33 1 3037 94 74 2 3071 87 69 4 30 4 49 39 1 3038 100 79 2 3072 88 70 4 30 5 55 44 1 3039 106 84 2 3073 90 71 4 30 6 60 48 1 3040 1 14 91 2 3074 92 73 4 30 7 65 51 1 3041 1 23 98 2 3075 93 74 4 30 8 69 55 1 3042 1 37 109 2 3076 95 75 4 30 9 72 57 1 3043 195 1 54 2 3077 97 77 4 3010 76 60 1 3044 25 20 3 3078 98 78 4 301 1 79 63 1 3045 43 34 3 3079 100 80 4 301 2 83 66 1 3046 51 41 3 3080 102 81 4 301 3 86 68 1 3047 59 47 3 3081 104 82 4 301 4 89 71 1 3048 67 53 3 3082 1 06 84 4 301 5 93 74 1 3049 74 59 3 3083 1 09 86 4 301 6 96 76 1 3050 81 64 3 3084 1 1 1 88 4 301 7 1 00 79 1 3051 88 70 3 3085 1 13 90 4 3018 1 03 82 1 3052 94 75 3 3086 1 1 6 92 4 301 9 1 07 85 1 3053 101 80 3 3087 1 18 94 4 3020 1 10 87 1 3054 108 86 3 3088 121 96 4 3021 1 14 91 1 3055 1 16 92 3 3089 1 23 98 4 3022 1 18 94 1 3056 126 100 3 3090 126 100 4 3023 123 98 1 3057x 158 1 26 3 3091 128 102 4 3024 129 1 02 1 3058 26 21 4 3092 1 32 104 4 3025 1 37 108 1 3059 50 40 4 3093 1 36 108 4 3026 1 46 1 16 1 3060 58 46 4 3094 141 1 1 2 4 3027 1 84 1 46 1 3061 62 49 4 3095 1 47 1 1 7 4 3028 32 26 2 3062 66 52 4 3096 1 58 126 4 3029 48 38 2 3063 70 55 4 3097 195 1 55 4 3030 57 45 2 3064 73 58 4 3098 38 30 5 3031 63 50 2 3065 75 60 4 3099 74 59 5 3032 69 54 2 3066 78 62 4 31 0 1 23 98 5 3033 74 58 2 3067 80 63 4 3034 79 62 2 3068 82 65 4 0000 ZONAL DATA 40 1 7103 25 40 2 8441 29 40 3 8459 54 40 410228 62 40 5 7015 5 40 6 8675 43 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n Data 70 11.2840.0980.3690.0540.0800.1170.0750.1100.098 71021.000 90.0 70 21.2180.0660.2760.0560.1220.1410.1230.1120.104 84411.000 91.4 70 31.3180.1100.4610.0620.1020.1000.0380.0700.057 84591.000 85.2 70 41.2310.1260.5290.0620.0890.0550.0480.0520.039102271.000100.4 70 51.4640.0090.0460.0320.1190.1050.1040.2820.303 70151.000 78.5 70 60.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 00.0 0.0 Fi g u r e A3:11-5A SASKATOON: "GAMMA" C a l i b r a t i o n Data 585 0000 BETA CALIBRATION 0000 INCOME by TYPE 20 1 7977 20 211084 20 3 9424 20 41 1 038 20 5 5689 20 6 5024 20 7 701 3 20 8 3249 0000 ALPHA 21 1 .1510 21 2 . 1264 21 3 . 1278 21 4 . 1 1 30 21 5 .1771 21 6 .2347 21 7 . 1 579 21 8 .2802 by TYPE 0000 "MODEL" HOUSEHOLDS 10 1 2106 1 1051 7159 3 10 2 3882 1 1052 8516 3 10 3 491 9 1 1053 9604 3 10 4 5877 1 105411111 3 10 5 6696 1 105513084 3 10 6 7539 1 105617252 3 10 7 8555 1 1057 3002 4 10 8 9557 1 1058 5209 4 10 910639 1 1059 6327 4 101012028 1 1060 7501 4 10111 6186 1 1061 8392 4 1012 503 2 1062 9321 4 1013 2492 2 106310885 4 1014 3616 2 106411820 4 1015 4389 2 106513009 4 1016 51 49 2 106614557 4 1017 5626 2 106717173 4 1018 6018 2 106825971 4 1019 6525 2 1069 1886 5 1 020 681 4 2 1070 2775 5 1021 7261 2 1071 3306 5 1022 7545 2 1072 3703 5 1023 7864 2 1073 4377 5 1 024 8189 2 1074 5723 5 1 025 8428 2 1075 7535 5 1 026 8791 2 107616672 5 1 027 9090 2 1077 789 6 1 028 9377 2 1078 1778 6 1029 9759 2 1079 2599 6 103010006 2 1080 3473 6 103110408 2 1081 4262 6 1 03210775 2 1082 5080 6 1 03311166 2 1083 6007 6 103411511 2 1084 8145 6 103511829 2 108513476 6 103612199 2 1086 1497 7 1 03712583 2 1087 3094 7 103813217 2 1088 4430 7 1 03913747 2 1089 5459 7 104014159 2 1090 6541 7 104114703 2 1091 8211 7 104215371 2 109210649 7 104316208 2 109316316 7 104416839 2 1094 1035 8 104518257 2 1095 1511 8 104620400 2 1096 1786 8 104724523 2 1097 2068 8 104837327 2 1098 2847 8 1 049 31 43 3 1099 3898 8 1050 5861 3 11 0 9725 8 Fig u r e A3:12-5 SASKATOON: "BETA" C a l i b r a t i o n Data 586 0000 BETA CALIBRATION 0000 "MODEL" Dwellings 30 1 22 1 3035 136 2 30 2 34 1 3036 223 2 30 3 42 1 3037 26 3 30 4 50 1 3038 40 3 30 5 57 1 3039 51 3 30 6 63 1 3040 61 3 30 7 67 1 3041 69 3 30 8 71 1 3042 74 3 30 9 75 1 3043 78 3 301 0 79 1 3044 83 3 301 1 83 1 3045 88 3 3012 87 1 3046 93 3 301 3 '91 1 3047 98 3 301 4 95 1 3048 104 3 301 5 100 1 3049 1 10 3 301 6 1 06 1 3050 122 3 301 7 1 15 1 3051 1 39 3 3018 1 25 1 3052 1 97 3 301 9 1 36 1 3053 60 4 3020 1 70 1 3054 78 4 3021 31 2 3055 84 4 3022 51 2 3056 89 4 3023 58 2 3057 93 4 3024 62 2 3058 98 4 3025 67 2 3059 1 02 4 3026 71 2 3060 1 07 4 3027 76 2 3061 1 1 1 4 3028 82 2 3062 121 4 3029 87 2 3063 137 4 3030 92 2 3064 184 4 3031 98 2 3065 27 5 3032 1 05 2 3066 52 5 3033 1 1 2 2 3067 1 1 4 5 3034 1 20 2 0000 ZONAL DATA 40 1 71 03 25 40 2 8441 29 40 3 8459 54 40 410228 62 40 5 701 5 5 40 6 8675 43 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n Data 70 1 1 .2650. 0820. 3270 .0500. 0830. 1 300. 70 21 . 1850. 0660. 2770 0560. 1 220. 1410. 70 31 .3050. 1050. 4590 .0590. 1010. 1 060. 70 41 .2460. 1180. 5330 0590. 0910. 0660. 70 51 .4590. 0090. 0460 0320. 1 190. 1 050. 70 61 .3000. 1 230. 4730 0630. 0900. 0690. 0840.1280.116 66440.988 89.3 1240.1110.104 84680.910 93.2 0370.0720.062 82880.888 83.1 0470.0540.033 99691.000 93.9 1040.2820.303 70150.723 87.4 0540.0680.059 94631.000107.2 F i g u r e A3:12-5A SASKATOON: "BETA" C a l i b r a t i o n Data 587 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" HOUSEHOLDS and BASE DATA 10 1 2106 1 41 .197 45 .3 1051 7159 3 131 .229 84. 1 10 2 3882 1 41 1 .239 64 .2 1052 8516 3 31 1 .258 92. 3 10 3 4919 1 101 .245 73 .8 1053 9604 3 321 .261 99. 1 10 4 5877 1 121 .255 81 .8 105411111 3 9991 .300106. 5 10 5 6696 1 141 .246 88 .8 105513084 3 9991 .300117. 5 10 6 7539 1 581 .285 93 .8 105617252 3 9991 .300138. 7 10 7 8555 1 491 .246102 .8 1057 3002 4 391 .226 47. 1 10 8 9557 1 9991 .300107 .5 1058 5209 4 9991 .300 63. 6 10 910639 1 621 .281 1 1 5 .6 1059 6327 4 9991 .300 71. 5 101012028 1 9991 .300123 .4 1060 7501 4 551 .276 80. 0 101116186 1 9991 .300147 .5 1061 8392 4 9991 .300 84. 7 1012 503 2 650 .956 20 .6 1062 9321 4 9991 .300 90. 3 1013 2492 2 221 .228 47 . 1 106310885 4 9991 .300 99. 1 1014 3616 2 61 .240 58 .7 106411820 4 61 1 .270105. 3 1015 4389 2 261 .237 66 .0 106513009 4 341 .249112. 4 1016 5149 2 431 .239 72 .6 106614557 4 9991 .300117. 9 1017 5626 2 281 .242 76 .4 106717173 4 9991 .300130. 2 1018 6018 2 9991 .300 77 .8 106825971 4 641 .237171. 1 1019 6525 2 9991 .300 81 .6 1069 1886 5 31 .325 41. 2 1020 6814 2 561 .274 84 .6 1070 2775 5 401 .190 55. 0 1021 7261 2 571 .268 88 . 1 1071 3306 5 71 .200 60. 8 1022 7545 2 471 .240 91 .2 1072 3703 5 251 .264 63. 3 1023 7864 2 151 .244 93 .4 1073 4377 5 271 .239 70. 7 1024 8189 2 9991 .300 93 .6 1074 5723 5 291 .264 82. 2 1025 8428 2 9991 .300 95 .2 1075 7535 5 591 .270 96. 7 1026 8791 2 161 .252 99 .5 107616672 5 201 .237158. 0 1027 9090 2 9991 .300 99 .6 1077 789 6 21 1 .336 30. 6 1028 9377 2 601 .281102 .2 1078 1778 6 51 .222 52. 5 1029 9759 2 331 .260105 .6 1079 2599 6 81 .230 65. 7 1 0301 0006 2 171 .249107 .7 1080 3473 6 441 .246 77. 6 103110408 2 9991 .300108 . 1 1081 4262 6 461 .254 87. 4 103210775 2 501 .235113 .2 1082 5080 6 481 .248 97. 3 103311166 2 9991 .3001 1 2 .7 1083 6007 6 671 .256107. 2 103411511 2 181 .249117 . 1 1084 8145 6 351 .262128. 4 103511829 2 9991 .3001 1 6 .7 108513476 6 521 .200178. 9 103612199 2 9991 .3001 18 .9 1086 1497 7 21 .368 34. 2 103712583 2 9991 .300121 . 1 1087 3094 7 531 .236 55. 7 103813217 2 191 .248127 .3 1088 4430 7 421 .24.1 69. 0 103913747 2 51 1 .250130 .2 1089 5459 7 111 .251 77. 8 104014159 2 631 .282130 .9 1090 6541 7 301 .257 86. 6 104114703 2 9991 .300133 .0 1091 8211 7 9991 .300 97. 5 104215371 2 9991 .300136 .5 109210649 7 9991 .300114. 0 104316208 2 9991 .300141 .0 109316316 7 9991 .300147. 2 104416839 2 9991 .300144 .2 1094 1035 8 38 .253 37. 5 104518257 2 9991 .300151 .4 1095 1511 8 66 .222 47. 8 104620400 2 9991 .300161 .8 1096 1786 8 23 .214 53. 1 104724523 2 361 .134193 .9 1097 2068 8 24 .232 57. 4 104837327 2 9991 .300232 .6 1098 2847 8 9 .234 69. 6 1049 3143 3 9991 .300 49 .9 1099 3898 8 45 .259 82. 9 1050 5861 3 541 .262 73 .6 1100 9725 8 999 .300140. 8 F i g u r e A3:13-5 SASKATOON: P o l i c y Dataset 588 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" DWELLINGS 30 1 22 1 3035 136 2 30 2 34 1 3036 223 2 30 3 42 1 3037 26 3 30 4 50 1 3038 40 3 30 5 57 1 3039 51 3 30 6 63 1 3040 61 3 30 7 67 1 3041 69 3 30 8 71 1 3042 74 3 30 9 75 1 3043 78 3 301 0 79 1 3044 83 3 301 1 83 1 3045 88 3 301 2 87 1 3046 93 3 301 3 91 1 3047 98 3 301 4 95 1 3048 1 04 3 301 5 100 1 3049 1 10 3 301 6 106 1 3050 1 22 3 301 7 1 1 5 1 3051 1 39 3 3018 125 1 r 3052 1 97 3 301 9 136 3053 60 4 3020 1 70 1 3054 78 4 3021 31 2 3055 84 4 3022 51 2 3056 89 4 3023 58 2 3057 93 4 3024 62 2 3058 98 4 3025 67 2 3059 1 02 4 3026 71 2 3060 1 07 4 3027 76 2 3061 1 1 1 4 3028 82 2 3062 121 4 3029 87 2 3063 1 37 4 3030 92 2 3064 184 4 3031 98 2 3065 27 5 3032 1 05 2 3066 52 5 3033 1 1 2 2 3067 1 14 5 3034 1 20 2 0000 INCOME by TYPE 0000 ALPHA by TYPE 0000 ZONAL DATA 20 1 7977 21 1.1510 40 1 7044 25 20 211084 21 2.1264 40 2 7885 29 20 3 9424 21 3.1278 40 3 6898 54 20 41 1 038 21 4.1130 40 411131 62 20 5 5689 21 5.1771 40 5 3037 5 20 6 5024 21 6.2347 40 614109 43 20 7 7013 21 7. 1579 20 8 3249 21 8.2802 F i g u r e A3:13-5(cont) SASKATOON: P o l i c y Dataset 589 RENTAL MODEL OWNER-OCCUPIER MODEL CONSTANT 2.5720 1 .8915 (22. 1 ) (5.84) BATH 0.4014 na (4.21) TOILET -.0629 -.3053 (0.65) (1.06) SUBSIDIS -.5116 0.0213 (12.1 ) (0.92) LNLIVING 0.2764 0.3396 (8.36) (10.7) LNINCOM 0. 1682 0.2407 (11.8) (13.7) TYPE • -.0070 -.2140 (0.40) (7.33) LNDIST 0.0013 -.0050 (0.14) (0.59) B51 60 -.1457 -.1014 (6.46) (5.41) B4650 -.2478 -.2468 (7.29) (8.18) B21 45 -.1693 -.2506 (7.36) (10.7) BPRE20 -.2358 -.2932 (7.52) (9.24) LGLVSIZE 0.0637 0.0525 (3.67) (2.53) LGBDSIZE 0.0563 0.1128 (7.94) (7.14) OPENSP 0.0383 0.0370 (1.87) (1.44) HIGHDEN 0.0010 -.0092 (0.05) (0.21) COMMERC 0.0156 na (0.79) NEIGHBD 0.0155 na (0.52) FINANCE -.0659 -.0315 (3.74) (1.83) AMRATE na 0.0846 (21.8) R2 0.61 0.49 Observat ions 1075 1 703 note: " t " s t a t i s t i c s i n bracke t s : data source: SAS.REG02 Fi g u r e A3:14-5 SASKATOON: 1971 Hedonic Estimates f o r T r a n s l o g s t r a n s l o g v a r i a b l e s ph*XH M ph*XH TYPE 1 mean 384.8 102.8 min 86.0 21.9 max 2125.1 256.3 TYPE 2 mean 395.3 104.9 min 54.6 27.3 max 1256.0 235.9 TYPE 3 mean 642.4 121.3 min 110.5 27.3 max 2107.8 260.9 TYPE 4 mean 463.3 123.6 min 68.4 49.2 max 1345.0 324.2 TYPE 5 mean 665.1 130.6 min 183.8 46.1 max 1570.5 267.2 TYPE 6 mean 585.7 172.8 min 110.0 43.1 max 3871 .7 711.8 TYPE 7 mean 601.4 157.6 min 146.1 43.2 max 2555.1 426.3 TYPE 8 mean 896.5 186.6 min 256.9 20.6 max 1882.3 558.7 TYPE 9 mean 730.3 192.3 min 225.7 36.6 max 2639.6 715.9 TYPE 10 mean 898.4 194.0 min 140.1 35.3 max 3021.4 852.4 ph pg M 1.224 1.237 0.3389 1.201 1.237 0.0711 1.277 1.237 0.9918 1.220 1.237 0.3236 1.201 1.237 0.0519 1.279 1.237 0.9423 1.220 1.237 0.2313 1.201 1.237 0.0370 1.300 1.237 0.9678 1.219 1.237 0.3174 1.201 1.237 0.1078 1.280 1.237 0.9525 1.217 1.237 0.2278 1 .201 . 1 .237 0.0762 1.279 1.237 0.6860 1.547 1.237 0.3546 1.255 1.237 0.0351 1.643 1.237 0.8797 1.595 1.237 0.3027 1.308 1.237 0.0575 1.696 1.237 0.9415 1.634 1.237 0.2247 1.311 1.237 0.0300 1.717 1.237 0.7345 1.669 1.237 0.2799 1.332 1.237 0.0572 1.749 1.237 0.8739 1.658 1.237 0.2338 1.328 1.237 0.0593 1.738 1.237 0.9802 Fig u r e A3:15-5 SASKATOON : T r a n s l o g Input V a r i a b l e s S t a t i s t i c s A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.2924 -.2331 0.2234 -.0645 0.0620 83.9 228.0 384.8 162 (105.) (21.1) (41.4) (1.85) (7.50) 2 -.2791 -.1611 0.2071 0.0917 0.0081 85.9 234.8 395.3 272 (187.) (22.8) (53.4) (4.06) (1.52) 3 -.2011 -.1153 0.1756 0.2136 -.0131 99.4 421.2 642.4 316 (152.) (16.4) (58.7) (6.68) (2.75) 4 -.2792 -.1519 0.2047 0.1463 0.0017 101.4 274.6 463.3 143 (177.) (15.3) (50.3) (6.12) (0.27) 5 -.2010 -.1298 0.1285 0.1254 -.1520 107.3 432.1 665.1 182 (337.) (35.5) (58.4) (9.47) (29.8) 6 -.3065 -.1779 0.1771 0.0415 -.0644 111.9 333.7 585.7 274 (208.) (30.4) (47.7) (2.57) (10.3) 7 -.2783 -.1658 0.1890 0.0406 -.0059 99.2 358.8 601.4 136 (109.) (18.1) (27.9) (1.55) (0.52) 8 -.2125 -.1089 0.1364 0.2178 -.1194 114.2 573.8 896.5 283 (316.) (35.2) (53.1) (19.2) (22.6) 9 -.2692 -.1578 0.1784 0.1042 -.0445 115.3 434.9 730.3 460 (420.) (43.1) (71.5) (9.54) (8.94) 10 -.2239 -.1297 0.1782 0.1653 -.0015 117.3 569.4 898.4 550 (290.) (38.3) (76.2) (17.5) (0.43) note: [1] " t " values i n b r a c k e t s [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:16-5 SASKATOON : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x penditure Share [ a l l income l e v e l s ] 592 A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE Al B11 B12 BMI BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.3888 -.1554 0.2894 0.1749 0.1714 68.2 111.1 220.8 111 (131.) (10.3) (32.0) (4.56) (12.7) 2 -.3799 -.1517 0.2723 0.1531 0.0950 75.6 127.6 250.0 150 (232.) (13.3) (43.4) (5.29) (10.5) 3 -.2766 -.0997 0.2396 0.2928 0.0654 92.6 251.7 424.3 170 (189.) (8.94) (49.2) (7.41) (8.68) 4 -.3839 -.1677 0.2605 0.1185 0.0737 93.2 152.3 301.9 76 (234.) (14.6) (42.1) (5.19) (8.45) 5 -.2675 -.1555 0.1665 0.1175 -.1039 100.7 276.6 464.6 99 (417.) (35.1) (46.2) (8.55) (12.8) 6 -.3962 -.2027 0.2336 0.0195 0.0103 94.1 184.2 373.0 174 (258.) (24.4) (32.5) (0.98) (0.84) 7 -.3452 -.1541 0.2651 0.1046 0.1025 91.6 237.1 439.6 84 (119.) (9.74) (17.3) (2.72) (4.20) 8 -.2470 -.1087 0.1650 0.2275 -.0780 100.2 408.9 668.8 153 (243.) (21.9) (28.1) (14.7) (7.25) 9 -.2972 -.1216 0.2368 0.2353 0.0525 97.7 316.8 554.5 278 (444.) (20.9) (54.8) (13.5) (6.48) 10 -.2569 -.1076 0.2232 0.2734 0.0551 101.7 404.1 668.6 300 (292.) (20.6) (55.9) (18.4) (9.84) note: [1] " t " values i n brackets [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:17-5 SASKATOON : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x penditure Share [below mean income] 593 A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.1958 -.1005 0.0981 0.2780 -.2706 118.1 482.5 741.8 51 (371.) (24.1) (37.3) (14.0) (30.3) 2 -.2104 -.0924 0.1105 0.3374 -.2267 98.5 366.5 573.9 122 (596.) (37.3) (31.0) (26.6) (15.7) 3 -.1467 -.0662 0.0794 0.3654 -.2847 107.4 618.6 896.3 146 (562.) (43.8) (23.1) (35.2) (12.9) 4 -.2093 -.1066 0.1083 0.2579 -.2552 110.7 413.5 646.4 67 (533.) (31.4) (29.0) (18.1) (15.3) 5 -.1551 -.0756 0.0727 0.3348 -.3645 115.3 617.5 904.2 83 (639.) (39.1) (21.7) (30.6) (17.4) 6 -.2347 -.1249 0.1202 0.1650 -.2030 143.0 593.9 955.6 100 (136.) (19.8) (12.8) (5.96) (6.36) 7 -.2071 -.1229 0.0843 0.1063 -.3496 111.4 555.3 862.9 52 (113.) (18.8) (7.00) (3.21) (6.73) 8 -.1867 -.1035 0.1048 0.2169 -.2032 130.8 768.0 1164.4 130 (271.) (23.8) (13.2) (9.97) (6.14) 9 -.2420 -.1320 0.1592 0.1837 -.0339 142.3 615.3 998.8 182 (313.) (23.4) (36.7) (9.13) (2.40) 10 -.1963 -.1192 0.1368 0.1544 -.0683 136.0 767.8 1174.2 250 (315.) (34.8) (25.3) (9.75) (2.90) note: [1] " t " values i n bracke t s [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:18-5 SASKATOON : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [above mean income] A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 1 -.4405 (152. ) 2 -.4857 (215. ) 3 -.3724 (195.) 4 -.4624 (221 . ) 5 -.3408 (316. ) 6 -.4774 (244. ) 7 -.4393 (137. ) 8 -.2908 (185. ) 9 -.3386 (479.) 10 -.2983 (208.) B11 B12 -.1181 0.3543 (7.07) (27.7) -.1285 0.3213 (7.32) (32.2) -.1066 0.2966 (6.14) (36.0) -.1949 0.3017 (6.89) (27.1) -.1687 0.1851 (25.1) (24.7) -.2163 0.2468 (16.7) (18.0) -.2886 0.2901 (14.5) (17.1) -.1311 0.1859 (12.2) (14.6) -.1005 0.2848 (13.4) (47.2) -.1028 0.2595 (11.7) (34.8) BM1 BM2 0.2808 0.2894 (7.44) (16.0) 0.1855 0.1747 (5.24) (12.3) 0.2735 0.1400 (5.65) (11.8) 0.0731 0.1302 (1.29) (9.76) 0.1126 -.0834 (6.23) (5.36) 0.0046 0.0383 (0.16) (1.67) -.1619 0.1202 (4.03) (4.85) 0.1663 -.0584 (4.46) (2.54) 0.3167 0.1412 (14.0) (12.8) 0.2690 0.1010 (13.0) (10.5) MQH MQX 56.9 72.9 66.3 71.0 90.4 156.4 84.6 98.8 99.1 190.7 82.4 116.3 88.7 152.7 95.9 312.0 89.9 241.7 95.5 308.6 ME # 159.9 60 168.3 74 303.8 79 225.5 40 356.5 49 273.6 88 328.4 36 541.8 72 449.5 123 540.2 139 note: [1] " t " values i n brackets [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:19-5 SASKATOON : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x penditure Share [ q u a r t i l e 0 1 ] SHARE = A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B1 1 1 -.3399 (357. ) -.1429 (29.0) 2 -.3137 (614.) -.1414 (28.5) 3 -.2184 (560.) -.1032 (24.9) 4 -.3260 (395.) -.1464 (15.9) 5 -.2180 (588.) -.1117 (19.1) 6 -.3449 ( 149.) -. 1640 (9.03) 7 -.2886 ( 144.) -.1047 (8.98) 8 -.2181 (188. ) -.0953 (14.0) 9 -.2701 (284. ) -. 1179 (12.7) 10 -.2287 (332. ) -.1121 (15.5) B12 BM1 BM2 0.1911 0.2093 -.0633 (23.6) (13.7) (3.90) 0.1670 0.1990 -.1376 (14.7) (12.5) (4.48) 0.1240 0.2784 -.2062 (12.9) (14.1) (5.45) 0.2476 0.1753 0.0800 (15.2) (5.16) (1.76) 0.1097 0.2514 -.2736 (10.2) (9.56) (6.43) 0.2533 0.1244 0.0838 (7.37) (2.41) (0.93) 0.2064 0.3493 0.0841 (8.90) (9.19) (2.33) 0.1644 0.2748 -.0343 (7.08) (8.55) (0.43) 0.1791 0.2309 -.1119 (8.12) (7.17) (1.62) 0.1536 0.2655 -.0855 (8.63) (8.68) (1.25) MQH MQX ME # 81.5 156.0 292.5 51 84.7 182.8 329.5 76 94.5 334.4 529.0 91 102.7 211.6 386.8 36 102.1 360.7 570.5 50 106.0 253.8 474.8 86 93.9 300.4 523.0 48 104.0 495.0 781.6 81 103.9 376.4 637.9 155 107.0 486.5 779.5 161 note: [1] " t " val u e s i n brackets [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:20-5 SASKATOON : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x penditure Share [ q u a r t i l e 02] 596 A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.2403 -.1095 0.1255 0.3057 -.2269 108.0 337.1 549.6 34 (379.) (21.1) (17.8) (14.9) (10.7) 2 -.2323 -.0949 0.1228 0.3495 -.1891 90.2 292.4 471.5 73 (483.) (22.9) (9.48) (17.3) (4.01) 3 -.1623 -.0666 0.0839 0.3845 -.2903 101.4 516.0 762.0 93 (531.) (30.8) (7.66) (27.6) (4.82) 4 -.2301 -.1101 0.1204 0.2710 -.2100 102.1 338.0 542.9 43 (420.) (19.6) (6.58) (13.2) (2.85) 5 -.1705 -.0791 0.0659 0.3491 -.4338 108.9 520.9 777.1 54 (543.) (29.8) (5.10) (24.3) (6.15) 6 -.2795 -.1428 0.1220 0.1121 -.2820 130.4 419.4 718.7 67 (128.) (11.8) (4.43) (2.67) (3.52) 7 -.2447 -.1422 0.0831 0.0799 -.4193 111.6 446.9 727.6 34 (103.) (12.5) (2.22) (1.85) (3.93) 8 -.2022 -.1019 0.1383 0.2491 -.1038 123.4 651.9 1008.8 78 (251.) (10.4) (5.47) (4.69) (0.95) 9 -.2524 -.0969 0.2399 0.3272 0.1704 126.6 507.4 838.6 117 (275.) (9.49) (18.1) (8.13) (4.46) 10 -.2008 -.0951 0.1683 0.2867 0.0661 121.9 660.7 1019.8 163 (355.) (16.1) (11.1) (10.6) (1.06) note: [1] " t " values i n brackets [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:21~5 SASKATOON : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [ q u a r t i l e 03] SHARE = A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.1518 -.0781 0.0798 0.3205 -.2870 138.2 773.1 1126.2 17 (208.) (8.46) (13.2) (4.86) (7.78) 2 -.1881 -.0819 0.1017 0.3651 -.2631 110.9 476.8 726.6 49 (385.) (19.4) (12.8) (16.9) (6.15) 3 -.1279 -.0737 0.0827 0.3097 -.2262 117.9 798.7 1132.0 53 (393.) (14.3) (13.6) (8.32) (4.86) 4 -.1845 -.0992 0.0941 0.2651 -.2966 126.1 548.6 831.8 24 (400.) (19.5) (15.6) (12.0) (8.31) 5 -.1357 -.0661 0.0785 0.3620 -.2573 127.2 797.5 1141.0 29 (617.) (19.2) (18.0) (16.1) (8.66) 6 -.1840 -.0864 0.1227 0.3494 -.1689 168.8 948.1 1436.8 33 (145.) (16.6) (9.25) (9.80) (3.32) 7 -.1588 -.0654 0.0712 0.4100 -.3462 110.8 760.0 1118.4 18 (64.7) (5.22) (3.86) (4.32) (2.64) 8 -.1681 -.0882 0.1003 0.2829 -.1592 141.8 942.3 1397.9 52 (129.) (11.7) (4.53) (6.61) (1.37) 9 -.2236 -.1174 0.1158 0.2239 -.2211 170.4 809.6 1287.1 65 (433.) (33.5) (26.7) (15.7) (12.6) 10 -.1878 -.1196 0.1298 0.1333 -.0829 162.4 968.6 1463.5 87 (162.) (18.9) (14.8) (3.92) (2.26) note: [1] " t " values i n brackets [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:22-5 SASKATOON : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [ q u a r t i l e 04] 598 income e l a s t i c i t y mean below above TYPE 1 Q01 0. 7359 0 .7347 0.8302 Q02 0. 5850 0 .6024 0.6103 Q03 0. 4753 0 .4978 0.4994 Q04 0. 3186 0 .3330 0.3367 TYPE 2 Q01 0. 7274 0 .7432 0.7567 Q02 0. 5587 0 .5628 0.5643 Q03 0. 4643 0 .4925 0.5027 Q04 0. 3978 0 .41 66 0.4243 TYPE 3 Q01 0. 631 7 0 .6518 0.6586 Q02 0. 4358 0 .4405 0.4420 Q03 0. 3552 0 .3661 0.3683 Q04 0. 2755 0 .2876 0.2913 TYPE 4 Q01 0. 6968 0 .7001 0.7100 Q02 0. 5505 0 .5660 0.5720 Q03 0. 451 3 0 .4602 0.4641 Q04 0. 3883 0 .3821 0.3815 TYPE 5 Q01 0. 5702 0 .5703 0.5703 Q02 0. 4392 0 .4367 0.4354 Q03 0. 391 1 0 .3803 0.3767 Q04 0. 2950 0 .31 24 0.3124 TYPE 6 Q01 0. 6937 0 .6937 0.6935 Q02 0. 5648 0 .5768 0.5792 Q03 0. 5103 0 .4745 0.4688 Q04 0. 3670 0 .4053 0.4245 TYPE 7 Q01 0. 6301 0 .6272 0.6210 Q02 0. 5423 0 .6073 0.5921 Q03 0. 4587 0 .4302 0.4064 Q04 0. 3544 0 .3729 0.3801 TYPE 8 Q01 0. 5023 0 .5022 0.5022 Q02 0. 4176 0 .4257 0.4310 Q03 0. 3929 0 .4007 0.4025 Q04 0. 3336 0 .351 3 0.3587 TYPE 9 Q01 0. 6111 0 .6362 0.6387 Q02 0. 5005 0 .5001 0.4999 Q03 0. 4692 0 .5030 0.5289 Q04 0. 4331 0 .4350 0.4361 TYPE 10 Q01 0. 5331 0 .5479 0.5416 Q02 0. 4473 0 .4553 0.4652 Q03 0. 3830 0 .4110 0.4134 Q04 0. 3474 0 .351 5 0.3531 p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y mean below above 0.9872 0.9985 0.9946 0.9987 -1.3358 -1.2428 -1.2055 -1.4097 -0.7194 -0.7910 -0.8088 -0.6152 1.0192 1.0063 0.9898 1.0002 -1.7956 -1.2099 -1 .1470 -1.2387 -0.7022 -0.8583 -0.8547 -0.7933 1.0438 1.0060 1.0025 1.0001 -1.5693 -1.1616 -1.1322 -1 .2145 -0.7901 -0.8683 -0.8886 -0.7237 1.0134 1.0204 0.9966 1.0017 -1.6340 -1.2621 -1.1635 -1.1670 -0.7618 -0.8606 -0.8588 -0.7736 1.0091 1.0032 1 .0002 0.9993 -1.3901 -1.1958 -1.1395 -1.1439 -0.7917 -0.8747 -0.8997 -0.8033 1.0110 1.0245 1.0336 0.9993 -1.6342 -1.2400 -1.2388 -1.3265 -0.7184 -0.8588 -0.8474 -0.6305 1.0399 0.9768 1 .0315 0.9941 -1.8058 -1.0600 -1.2934 -1.2255 -0.7360 -0.9238 -0.8921 -0.5643 1 .0314 1.0211 1.0100 0.9950 -1.3403 -1.1554 -1.1011 -1.1790 -0.8750 -0.9070 -0.9085 -0.8088 1.0343 1.0321 1.0201 0.9999 -1.3786 -1.1587 -1.1816 -1.2570 -0.8923 -0.9108 -0.8800 -0.6508 1.0565 1.0009 1.0069 1.0186 -1.3760 -1.1576 -1.1002 -1.2541 -0.9250 -0.8625 -0.9236 -0.7369 F i g u r e A3:23-5 SASKATOON : Income and P r i c e E l a s t i c i t i e s 599 ALL BELOW ABOVE QO1 Q02 Q03 Q04 TYPE 1 normal 330.85 258.46 221.81 164.77 202.48 152.14 79.81 BM1=BM2=0 293.22 190.38 141.02 100.41 148.98 105.96 63.36 s t a t i s t i c 75.26 136.16 161.58 128.72 107.00 92.35 32.91 TYPE 2 normal 651.52 394.83 523.24 203.69 318.86 309.74 218.42 BM1=BM2=0 642.84 345.88 368.25 152.77 231.59 211.96 167.11 s t a t i s t i c 17.35 97.91 309.98 101.85 174.54 195.57 102.62 TYPE 3 normal 757.36 455.28 667.37 221.40 396.27 424.69 248.46 BM1=BM2=0 728.97 408.33 480.35 169.26 298.10 294.36 208.59 s t a t i s t i c 56.78 93.90 374.04 104.29 196.34 260.66 79.75 TYPE 4 normal 377.39 224.10 305.40 123.63 145.43 191.05 122.39 BM1=BM2=0 358.50 183.10 224.14 95.64 118.28 142.52 95.32 s t a t i s t i c 37.77 82.01 162.52 55.99 54.29 97.06 54.15 TYPE 5 normal 635.60 374.96 410.56 180.24 235.75 261.80 158.66 BM1=BM2=0 454.43 294.49 293.64 146.11 192.59 189.48 107.92 s t a t i s t i c 362.36 160.94 233.84 68.25 86.34 144.64 101.48 TYPE 6 normal 670.46 461.08 287.11 245.23 226.35 190.11 118.96 BM1=BM2=0 621.82 460.51 230.20 242.27 222.00 163.28 81.66 s t a t i s t i c 97.28 1.13 113.83 5.93 8.71 53.67 74.61 TYPE 7 normal 298.83 196.50 160.75 99.37 148.74 104.62 63.58 BM1=BM2=0 296.36 186.44 124.41 74 . 9 1 122.39 86.81 51.56 s t a t i s t i c 4.93 20.12 72.68 48.93 52.69 35.63 24.02 TYPE 8 normal 893.40 .472.01 461.82 218.58 266.04 285.75 181.75 BM1=BM2=0 683.77 371.69 359.61 195.49 203.13 221.47 155.03 s t a t i s t i c 419.28 200.66 204.43 46.18 125.82 128.56 53.45 TYPE 9 normal 1351.49 880.73 592.27 435.51 504.15 392.75 279.23 BM1=BM2=0 1263.80 806.80 503.17 365.69 447.62 349.10 182.79 s t a t i s t i c 175.38 147.86 178.19 139.64 113.08 87.32 192.87 TYPE 10 normal 1461.81 856.96 820.78 383.54 560.00 591.61 283.61 BM1=BM2=0 1364.66 726.43 683.15 301.48 475.30 458.01 232.00 s t a t i s t i c 194.29 261.06 275.27 164.12 169.39 267.20 103.22 Figu r e A3:24-5 SASKATOON Log L i k e l i h o o d Values: [ t e s t of u n i t y income e l a s t i c i t y ] 0000 Demand C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL" MODIFIED HOUSEHOLDS 0 1 1 354 1 -468 0 0 2 1825 1 -4 0 0 3 2344 1 321 85 0 4 3058 1 762 191 0 5 3879 1 1244 252 0 6 8045 1 6627 2006 0 7 744 2 -396 0 0 8 1 585 2 554 96 0 9 2080 2 1 064 231 010 2750 2 1738 328 01 1 3504 . 2 2502 459 012 4099 2 3301 649 013 4701 2 3949 813 014 5422 2 4646 1013 015 6604 2 6081 1 454 016 9084 2 9742 2897 017 1997 3 -196 55 018 3410 3 1333 286 019 4429 3 2421 477 020 5428 3 3514 674 021 6154 3 4346 874 022 6973 3 5392 1 127 023 7818 3 6508 1 407 024 8648 3 7404 1 639 025 9803 3 8959 21 69 02610913 31 0309 2461 02715046 316814 5403 028 1 140 4 -356 33 029 2710 4 1 060 225 030 3709 4 1800 329 031 491 6 4 2286 435 032 5856 4 3401 680 033 7014 4 4814 1063 03410044 4 8872 2648 035 3322 5 452 172 036 5248 5 231 8 475 037 6845 5 4246 912 038 8093 . 5 5569 1 243 039 9563 5 7663 1794 04013427 513003 3806 041 2084 6 -257 0 042 2751 6 -310 2 043 3418 6 -354 16 044 4051 6 29 79 045 4568 6 486 161 046 5153 6 847 217 047 5923 6 1 532 331 048 6825 6 2559 530 049 8499 6 3591 787 05015708 613509 4744 051 3124 7 915 189 052 5043 7 2803 543 053 6227 7 401 1 841 054 7321 7 4917 1095 055 9060 7 7248 1876 05612967 713232 5044 057 5277 8 2022 423 058 7051 8 41 93 883 059 8281 8 5745 1 258 060 9254 8 6845 1 488 06110019 8 7406 1 679 06211131 8 8657 2010 06312015 8 9991 2452 06413278 811558 2988 06514931 813934 3906 06618592 81 9031 6637 067 3249 9 448 185 068 5256 9 1987 387 069 6045 9 231 3 437 070 6704 9 3508 701 071 7198 9 3424 681 072 7674 9 4201 885 073 8224 9 4993 1111 074 8814 9 5694 1333 075 9359 9 6298 1518 07610152 9 7056 1784 07710705 9 7340 1888 07811986 9 9708 2820 07913345 911045 3423 08019839 92315510827 081 3742 1 0 440 204 082 6125 10 21 00 460 083 7134 10 3728 757 084 7780 10 4059 873 085 8276 10 4848 1117 086 8731 10 5566 1 253 087 9207 10 5563 .1 339 088 9741 10 6358 1500 08910397 10 7191 1679 09010744 10 741 4 1 849 09111151 10 8082 2004 09211628 10 8840 221 1 09312191 10 9361 2283 09412691 10 9920 2323 09513166 1010229 261 3 09613745 1010404 2655 09714391 1012442 3551 09815444 1013328 4081 09917363 1015434 4764 1 022784 102551810848 F i g u r e A3:25-5 SASKATOON: Demand C a l i b r a t i o n Data 0000 Demand C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 Mean AFTER TAX INCOME by Household TYPE 20 1159.9292.5549.61126. 20 2168.3329.5471.5726.6 20 3303.8529.0762.01132. 20 4225.5386.8542.9831 .8 20 5356.5570.5777. 1 1141. 20 6273.6474.8718.71437 20 7328.4523.0727.61 1 18 20 8541.8781.61009. 1398 20 9449.5637.9838.61287 2010540.2779.51020. 1464 0000 Demand PARAMETERS by TYPE 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 01 ) 21 1 o - .440- .118. 3543. 2808. 289456. 8972. 87159. 91 .227 21 2 0- .486- . 1 28. 321 3. 1 855. 174766. 3070. 96168. 31 .215 21 3 o - .372- .107. 2966. 2735. 140090. 441 56 .4303. 81 .220 21 4 o - .462- .195. 3017. 0731 . 130284. 5798. 82225. 51 .220 21 5 0- .341- .169. 1851. 1 126-.08399. 1 5190 .7356. 51 .217 21 6 o - .477- .216. 2468. 0046. 038382. 401 1 6 .3273. 61 .576 21 7 o - .439- .289. 2901- .162. 120288. 691 52 .7328. 41 .594 21 8 o - .291- .131. 1859. 1 663-.05895. 8631 2 .0541. 81 .633 21 9 0- .339- .101. 2848. 31 67. 141289. 85241 .7449. 51 .676 2110 o - .298- .103. 2595. 2690. 101095. 47308 .6540. 21 .661 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 02) 22 1 o - .340- . 1 43. 1911. 2093- .06381. 481 56 .0292. 51 .221 22 2 o - .314- .141. 1670. 1990- .13884. 66182 .8329. 51 .220 22 3 o - .218- . 1 03. 1 240 . 2784- .20694. 53334 .4529. 01 ..219 22 4 o - .326- . 1 46. 2476. 1 753. 0800102 .721 1 .6386. 81 .217 22 5 0- .218- .112. 1097. 2514- .274102 . 1 360 .7570. 51 .217 22 6 o - .345- . 1 64. 2533. 1 244. 0838106 .0253 .8474. 81 .522 22 7 o - .289- .105. 2064. 3493. 084193. 85300 .4523. 01 .612 22 8 o - .218- .095. 1 644. 2748- .034104 .0495 .0781 . 61 .630 22 9 0- .270- .118. 1791 . 2309- .112103 .9376 .4637. 91 .661 221 0 o - .229- .112. 1 536. 2655- .086107 .0486 .5779. 51 .658 0000 (quart i l e 03) 23 1 0- .240- .109. 1 255. 3057- .227108 .0337 .1549. 61 .224 23 2 o - .232- .095. 1 228. 3495- .18990. 1 6292 .4471 . 51 .217 23 3 0- . 1 62-.067. 0839. 3845- .290101 .4516 .0762. 01 .220 23 4 o - .230- .110. 1 204. 271 0- .210102 . 1 338 .0542. 91 .222 23 5 0- . 1 70-.079. 0659. 3491- .434108 .9520 .9777. 1 1 .219 23 6 0- .279- . 143. 1 220. 1121- .282130 .441 9 .4718. 7.1 .541 23 7 o - .245- .142. 0831 . 0799- .419111 .6446 .9727. 61 .563 23 8 0- .202- .102. 1 383. 2491- .104123 .4651 .91009 .640 23 9 o - .252- .097. 2399. 3272. 1704126 .6507 .4838. 61 .668 2310 0- .201- .095. 1 683. 2867. 0661121 .9660 .71020 .662 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 04) 24 1 0- . 1 52-.078. 0798. 3205- .287138 .2773 . 11126 • .227 24 2 o - .188- .082. 1017. 3651- .263110 .9476 .8726. 61 .233 24 3 o - . 1 28-.074. 0827. 3097- .226117 .9798 .71132 • .222 24 4 o - . 185-.099. 0941 . 2651- .297126 . 1 548 .6831. 81 .215 24 5 o - . 1 36-.066. 0785. 3620- .257127 .2797 .51141 .214 24 6 0- . 184-.086. 1227. 3494- .169168 .8948 . 11437 .549 24 7 o - . 1 59-.065. 071 2. 41 00-.346110 .8760 .01118 .609 24 8 o - .168- .088. 1003. 2829- .159141 .8942 .31398 • .634 24 9 o - .224- .117. 1 158. 2239- .221170 .4809 .61287 • .674 241 0 o - .188- . 1 20. 1298. 1 333-.083162 .4968 .61464 • .644 F i g u r e A3:25-5(cont) SASKATOON: Demand C a l i b r a t i o n Data 602 0000 Demand C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL" DWELLINGS 30 1 21 1 1 3035 1 50 4 1 3069 84 3 2 30 2 60 1 1 3036 1 60 4 1 3070 90 3 2 30 3 80 1 1 3037 185 4 1 3071 97 3 2 30 4 91 1 1 3038 41 5 1 3072 103 3 2 30 5 101 1 1 3039 80 5 1 3073 109 3 2 30 6 110 1 1 3040 1 33 5 1 3074 116 3 2 30 7 120 1 1 3041 41 1 2 3075 122 3 2 30 8 130 1 1 3042 62 1 2 3076 1 33 3 2 30 9 1 39 1 1 3043 69 1 2 3077 163 3 2 301 0 152 1 1 3044 76 1 2 3078 53 4 2 301 1 179 1 1 3045 82 1 2 3079 79 4 2 301 2 55 2 1 3046 89 1 2 3080 87 4 2 301 3 81 2 1 3047 94 1 2 3081 92 4 2 301 4 95 2 1 3048 99 1 2 3082 98 4 2 301 5 107 2 1 3049 1 04 1 2 3083 1 03 4 2 301 6 1 19 2 1 3050 109 1 2 3084 1 06 4 2 301 7 1 32 2 1 3051 1 1 5 1 2 3085 109 4 2 3018 161 2 1 3052 1 22 1 2 3086 1 1 1 4 2 301 9 67 3 1 3053 1 28 1 2 3087 1 1 3 4 2 3020 92 3 1 3054 1 50 1 2 3088 1 15 4 2 3021 1 06 3 1 3055 49 2 2 3089 1 1 7 4 2 3022 1 19 3 1 3056 63 2 2 3090 1 1 9 4 2 3023 131 3 1 3057 72 2 2 3091 121 4 2 3024 1 55 3 1 3058 78 2 2 3092 1 23 4 2 3025 61 4 1 3059 84 2 2 3093 1 27 4 2 3026 84 4 1 3060 90 2 2 3094 131 4 2 3027 96 4 1 3061 98 2 2 3095 1 35 4 2 3028 1 04 4 1 3062 1 09 2 2 3096 1 39 4 2 3029 1 12 4 1 3063 1 50 2 2 3097 1 46 4 2 3030 1 1 9 4 1 3064 40 3 2 3098 157 4 2 3031 1 26 4 1 3065 59 3 2 3099 186 4 2 3032 1 32 4 1 3066 65 3 2 31 0 85 5 2 3033 1 38 4 1 3067 72 3 2 3034 1 44 4 1 3068 78 3 2 0000 ZONAL Data 40 1 7044 25 40 2 7885 29 40 3 6898 54 40 411131 62 40 5 3037 5 40 614109 43 0000 Parameters 501 1 .33 501 2 .89 501 3 0.0 501 6 .33 501 71 .30 5018 0.0 50201 .237 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n Data 70 1 1 .4750. 0 0. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 71 021 .000100. 70 21 .3960. 0 0. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 8441 1 .000 96. 70 31 .5770. 0 0. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 84591 .000100. 70 41 .4410. 0 0. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 • 0.0 102281 .000119. 70 51 .4260. 0 0. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 701 51 .000 84. 70 60 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 00 .0 0. F i g u r e A3:25-5(cont) SASKATOON: Demand C a l i b r a t i o n Data 0000 Supply C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL" MODIFIED HOUSEHOLDS 10 1 1 354 1 -468 0 10 2 1825 1 -4 0 10 3 2344 1 321 85 10 4 3058 1 762 191 10 5 3879 1 1244 252 10 6 8045 1 6627 2006 10 7 744 2 -396 0 10 8 1 585 2 554 96 10 9 2080 2 1 064 231 1010 2750 2 1738 328 1011 3504 2 2502 459 1012 4099 2 3301 649 1013 4701 2 3949 813 1014 5422 2 4646 1013 1015 6604 2 6081 1 454 1016 9084 2 9742 2897 1017 1997 3 -196 55 1018 341 0 3 1 333 286 1019 4429 3 2421 477 1 020 5428 3 3514 674 1 021 61 54 3 4346 874 1022 6973 3 5392 1 1 27 1023 7818 3 6508 1407 1024 8648 3 7404 1639 1 025 9803 3 8959 21 69 102610913 31 0309 2461 102715046 31 681 4 5403 1 028 1 140 4 -356 33 1 029 2710 4 1 060 225 1030 3709 4 1800 329 1031 491 6 4 2286 435 1 032 5856 4 3401 680 1 033 701 4 4 481 4 1063 103410044 4 8872 2648 1 035 3322 5 452 172 1 036 5248 5 2318 475 1037 6845 5 4246 912 1038 8093 5 5569 1243 1 039 9563 5 7663 1794 104013427 51 3003 3806 1 041 2084 , 6 -257 0 1 042 2751 6 -310 2 1 043 3418 6 -354 16 1 044 4051 6 29 79 1 045 4568 6 486 161 1 046 51 53 6 847 217 1047 5923 6 1532 331 1 048 6825 6 2559 530 1 049 8499 6 3591 787 105015708 61 3509 4744 051 3124 7 915 189 052 5043 7 2803 543 053 6227 7 401 1 841 054 7321 7 4917 1095 055 9060 7 7248 1876 05612967 71 3232 5044 057 5277 8 2022 423 058 7051 8 4193 883 059 8281 8 5745 1258 060 9254 8 6845 1488 06110019 8 7406 1679 06211131 8 8657 2010 06312015 8 9991 2452 06413278 81 1 558 2988 06514931 81 3934 3906 06618592 819031 6637 067 3249 9 448 185 068 5256 9 1987 387 069 6045 9 231 3 437 070 6704 9 3508 701 071 7198 9 3424 681 072 7674 9 4201 885 073 8224 9 4993 1111 074 8814 9 5694 1 333 075 9359 9 6298 1518 07610152 9 7056 1 784 07710705 9 7340 1888 07811986 9 9708 2820 07913345 911045 3423 08019839 9231551 0827 081 3742 10 440 204 082 6125 10 21 00 460 083 7134 1 0 3728 757 084 7780 10 4059 873 085 8276 10 4848 1117 086 8731 10 5566 1 253 087 9207 10 5563 1339 088 9741 10 6358 1 500 08910397 10 7191 1679 09010744 10 741 4 1849 09111151 10 8082 2004 09211628 1 0 8840 221 1 09312191 10 9361 2283 09412691 10 9920 2323 09513166 1010229 261 3 09613745 1010404 2655 09714391 1012442 3551 09815444 1013328 4081 09917363 1015434 4764 1 022784 102551810848 F i g u r e A3:26-5 SASKATOON: Supply C a l i b r a t i o n Data 0000 Supply C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 Mean AFTER TAX INCOME by Household TYPE 20 1159.9292.5549.61126. 20 2168.3329.5471.5726.6 20 3303.8529.0762.01132. 20 4225.5386.8542.9831 .8 20 5356.5570.5777.11141. 20 6273.6474.8718.71437 20 7328.4523.0727.61118 20 8541.8781.61009.1398 20 9449.5637.9838.61287 2010540.2779.51020.1464 0000 Demand PARAMETERS by TYPE 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 01 ) 21 1 o - .440- .118. 3543. 2808. 289456. 8972. B7159. 91 .227 21 2 o - .486- .128. 321 3. 1855. 174766. 3070. 96168. 31 .215 21 3 0- .372- . 1 07. 2966. 2735. 140090. 441 56 .4303. 81 .220 21 4 0- .462- .195. 3017. 0731 . 130284. 5798. 82225. 51 .220 21 5 o - .341- .169. 1851. 1 1 26-.08399. 15190 .7356. 51 .217 21 6 0- .477- .216. 2468. 0046. 038382. 401 1 6 .3273. 61 .576 21 7 o - .439- .289. 2901- . 1 62. 120288. 691 52 .7328. 41 .594 21 8 o - .291- .131. 1859. 1 663-.05895. 8631 2 .0541. 81 .633 21 9 0- .339- .101. 2848. 3167. 141289. 85241 .7449. 51 .676 2110 0- .298- . 1 03. 2595. 2690. 101095. 47308 .6540. 21 .661 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 02) 22 1 o - .340- .143. 1911. 2093- .06381 . 481 56 .0292. 51 .221 22 2 0- .314- .141. 1670. 1990- . 13884. 66182 .8329. 51 .220 22 3 0- .218- . 1 03. 1240. 2784- .20694. 53334 .4529. 01 .219 22 4 0- .326- . 1 46. 2476. 1753. 0800102 .721 1 .6386. 81 .217 22 5 0- .218- .112. 1097. 2514- .274102 .1360 .7570. 51 .217 22 6 0- .345- . 1 64. 2533. 1 244. 0838106 .0253 .8474. 81 .522 22 7 o - .289- . 1 05. 2064. 3493. 084193. 85300 .4523. 01 .612 22 8 0- .218- .095. 1644. 2748- .034104 .0495 .0781 . 61 .630 22 9 0- .270- .118. 1791 . 2309- .112103 .9376 .4637. 91 .661 2210 0- .229- . 1 1 2 . 1 536. 2655- .086107 .0486 .5779. 51 .658 0000 (quart i l e 03) 23 1 0- .240- .109. 1 255. 3057- .227108 .0337 . 1549. 61 .224 23 2 o - .232- .095. 1228. 3495- .18990. 1 6292 .4471 . 51 .217 23 3 o - . 1 62-.067. 0839. 3845- .290101 .451 6 .0762. 01 .220 23 4 0- .230- .110. 1204. 271 0- .210102 . 1 338 .0542. 91 .222 23 5 o - .170- .079. 0659. 3491- .434108 .9520 .9777. 1 1 .219 23 6 o - .279- .143. 1220. 1121- .282130 .441 9 .4718. 71 .541 23 7 o - .245- . 1 42. 0831 . 0799- .419111 .6446 .9727. 61 .563 23 8 0- .202- .102. 1 383. 2491- .104123 .4651 .91009 .640 23 9 o - .252- .097. 2399. 3272. 1704126 .6507 .4838. 6 .668 2310 o - .201- .095. 1683. 2867. 0661121 .9660 .71020 • .662 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 04) 24 1 0- . 1 52- .078. 0798. 3205- . 2 8 7 1 3 8 . 2773 . 1 1 1 2 6 • . 2 2 7 24 2 o - .188- .082. 1017. 3651- .263110 .9476 .8726. 61 .233 24 3 o - .128- .074. 0827. 3097- .2261 17 .9798 .71132 • .222 24 4 o - .185- .099. 0941 . 2651- .297126 . 1 548 .6831 . 81 .215 24 5 o - .136- .066. 0785. 3620- .257127 .2797 .51141 • .214 24 6 o - . 184-.086. 1 227. 3494- .169168 .8948 . 11437 • .549 24 7 o - .159- .065. 071 2. 41 00- .346110 .8760 .01118 .609 24 8 o - . 168-.088. 1003. 2829- .159141 .8942 .31398 • .634 24 9 o - .224- .117. 1 1 58. 2239- .221170 .4809 .61287 • .674 241 0 0- .188- . 1 20. 1298. 1 333-.083162 .4968 .61464 • .644 F i g u r e A3:26-5(cont) SASKATOON: Supply C a l i b r a t i o n Data 605 0000 Supply C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL" DWELLINGS 30 1 30 1 1 3024 75 1 2 30 2 53 1 1 3025 80 1 2 30 3 68 1 1 3026 83 1 2 30 4 80 1 1 3027 87 1 2 30 5 90 1 1 3028 91 1 ' 2 30 6 105 1 1 3029 95 1 2 30 7 142 1 1 3030 99 1 2 30 8 48 2 1 3031 104 1 2 30 9 70 2 1 3032 1 10 1 2 3010 84 2 1 3033 1 17 1 2 301 1 104 2 1 3034 1 30 1 2 3012 141 2 1 3035 52 2 2 301 3 61 3 1 3036 70 2 2 3014 86 3 1 3037 76 2 2 301 5 1 20 3 1 3038 81 2 2 3016 76 4 1 3039 87 2 2 3017 98 4 1 3040 92 2 2 3018 1 46 4 1 3041 97 2 2 301 9 34 5 1 3042 1 02 2 2 3020 78 5 1 3043 107 2 2 3021 41 1 2 3044 1 1 6 2 2 3022 54 1 2 3045 1 35 2 2 3023 66 1 2 3046 41 3 2 0000 ZONAL Data 40 1 7044 25 40 2 7885 29 40 411131 62 40 5 3037 5 0000 Parameters 50 1 . 1 50 2 .0 501 1 .33 501 2 .89 5016 .33 50171 .30 50201.237 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n Data 70 1 1 .221 0 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 70 21 . 1840 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 70 31 .2460 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 70 41 . 1830 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 70 51 .3730 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 70 61 .2190 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 70 71 .61 50 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 70 81 .5010 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 70 91 .6970 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 70101 .6230 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 701 1 2 .2090 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 70121 .6640 .0 0. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 3047 54 3 2 3048 66 3 2 3049 78 3 2 3050 83 3 2 3051 88 3 2 3052 92 3 2 3053 96 3 2 3054 101 3 2 3055 105 3 2 3056 1 12 3 2 3057 1 22 3 2 3058 141 3 2 3059 84 4 2 3060 98 4 2 3061 101 4 2 3062 104 4 2 3063 108 4 2 3064 1 1 1 4 2 3065 1 14 4 2 3066 1 22 4 2 3067 141 4 2 40 3 6898 54 40 614109 43 5013 37. 5018 54. 0. 0 65241 .000114. 7 0. 0 85821 .000119. 3 0. 0 83021 .000119. 0 0. 0 98361 .000132. 2 0. 0 70150 .758 93. 8 0. 0 91181 .000132. 3 0. 0 67380 .823 89. 9 0. 0 83980 .822 94. 0 0. 0 82840 .834 91. 3 0. 0 100211 .000106. 0 0. 0 701 50 .267 64. 5 0. 0 9781 1 .000110. 0 Fi g u r e A3:26-5(cont) SASKATOON: Supply C a l i b r a t i o n Data 606 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" MODIFIED HOUSEHOLDS and BASE Data 10 1 1354 1 -467 0 131 .104 47. 6 10 2 1825 1 -3 0 161 .130 61 . 9 10 3 2344 1 321 85 201 .186 69. 3 10 4 3058 1 762 191 101 .214 77. 7 10 5 3879 1 1 244 252 9991 .342 74. 2 10 6 8045 1 6627 2006 9991 .342102. 8 10 7 744 2 -395 0 81 .017 32. 0 10 8 1 585 2 554 96 91 . 1 39 58. 0 10 9 2080 2 1 064 231 41 .185 71 . 1 1010 2750 2 1 738 328 141 .213 79. 6 1011 3504 2 2502 459 9991 .342 72. 6 1012 4099 2 3301 649 9991 .342 73. 2 1013 4701 2 3949 813 9991 .342 75. 7 1014 5422 2 4646 1013 171 .214 90. 8 1015 6604 2 6081 1 454 9991 .342 83. 1 1016 9084 2 9742 2897 151 .238 114. 5 1017 1997 3 -195 55 31 . 1 40 56. 4 1018 3410 3 1333 286 51 .231 85. 4 1019 4429 3 2421 477 9991 .342 84. 8 1 020 5428 3 3514 674 9 9 9 1 .342 85. 3 1 021 61 54 3 4346 874 9991 .342 81 . 4 1 022 6973 3 5392 1 1 27 9991 .342 82. 4 1 023 7818 3 6508 1 407 1 1 1 .232 98. 8 1 024 8648 3 7404 1639 61 .232 99. 7 1 025 9803 3 8959 21 69 9991 .342 88. 2 102610913 31 0309 2461 9991 .342 92. 7 102715046 316814 5403 181 .208134. 1 1 028 1 1 40 4 -355 33 21 . 1 07 41 . 6 1 029 271 0 4 1 060 225 9991 .342 74. 0 1 030 3709 4 1 800 329 9991 .342 85. 3 1 031 491 6 4 2286 435 9991 .342 89. 3 1 032 5856 4 3401 680 9991 .342 89. 5 1 033 7014 4 481 4 1 063 9991 .342 90. 4 103410044 4 8872 2648 71 .203129. 7 1 035 3322 5 452 1 72 9991 .342 66. 1 1 036 5248 5 2318 475 9991 .342 89. 8 1 037 6845 5 4246 912 9991 .342 85. 7 1 038 8093 5 5569 1 243 9991 .342 89. 9 1 039 9563 5- 7663 1794 9991 .342 92. 0 104013427 51 3003 3806 121 .205129. 1 1 041 2084 6 -256 0 461 .565 53. 1 1 042 2751 6 -309 2 471 .566 70. 0 1 043 3418 6 -353 16 9991 .793 70. 0 1 044 4051 6 29 79 9991 .793 76. 2 1 045 4568 6 486 161 9991 .793 79. 7 1 046 5153 6 847 217 9991 .793 81 . 9 1047 5923 6 1 532 331 9991 .793 84. 4 1 048 6825 6 2559 530 9991 .793 91 . 5 1 049 8499 6 3591 787 9991 .793100. 7 105015708 613509 4744 661 .583163. 2 F i g u r e A3:27-5 SASKATOON: MODIFIED P o l i c y Dataset 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" MODIFIED HOUSEHOLDS and BASE Data 1051 3124 7 915 189 221 .593 71. 7 1052 5043 7 2803 543 9991 .793 80. 7 1053 6227 7 401 1 841 9991 .793 78. 1 1054 7321 7 4917 1095 9991 .793 84. 3 1055 9060 7 7248 1876 9991 .793 91. 5 105612967 713232 5044 391 .589114. 5 1057 5277 8 2022 423 481 .567 83. 7 1058 7051 8 41 93 883 241 .619101. 0 1059 8281 8 5745 1 258 491 .620105. 2 1060 9254 8 6845 1488 251 .610106. 8 106110019 8 7406 1679 271 .595114. 0 106211131 8 8657 201 0 41 1 .581125. 0 106312015 8 9991 2452 421 .583131. 5 106413278 811558 2988 431 .585138. 4 1 06514931 813934 3906 561 .588145. 5 106618592 819031 6637 451 .568171. 5 1067 3249 9 448 185 21 1 .651 56. 1 1068 5256 9 1 987 387 231 .653 90. 6 1069 6045 9 231 3 437 371 .621101 . 0 1070 6704 9 3508 701 381 .608106. 3 1071 7198 9 3424 681 261 .604108. 7 1072 7674 9 4201 885 591 .604110. 1 1073 8224 9 4993 1111 291 .573120. 1 1074 8814 9 5694 1 333 301 .579125. 9 1075 9359 9 6298 1518 551 .573132. 6 107610152 9 7056 1 784 641 .576140. 5 107710705 9 7340 1888 651 .583145. 4 107811986 9 9708 2820 571 .592157. 1 107913345 911045 3423 671 .562175. 5 108019839 92315510827 9991 .793195. 9 1081 3742 1 0 440 204 351 .539 63. 2 1082 6125 1 0 21 00 460 361 .630 94. 3 1083 7134 10 3728 757 501 .596107. 8 1084 7780 10 4059 873 51 1 .583112. 7 1085 8276 10 4848 1117 521 .570116. 2 1086 8731 10 5566 1253 281 .580116. 2 1087 9207 10 5563 1 339 401 .578117. 2 1088 9741 10 6358 1500 531 .570121. 2 108910397 10 7191 1679 601 .578124. 7 109010744 10 7414 1849 61 1 .572127. 7 109111151 10 8082 2004 541 .581129. 0 109211628 1 0 8840 221 1 621 .577132. 2 109312191 10 9361 2283 31 1 .586133. 6 109412691 10 9920 2323 631 .583138. 3 109513166 1010229 261 3 321 .588141. 8 109613745 1010404 2655 441 .580148. 2 109714391 1012442 3551 331 .592151. 7 109815444 1013328 4081 341 .570164. 5 109917363 1015434 4764 581 .573179. 4 1 1 022784 102551810848 9991 .793185. 7 F i g u r e A3:27-5 SASKATOON: MODIFIED P o l i c y Dataset 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 Mean AFTER TAX INCOME by Household TYPE 20 1159.9292.5549.61126. 20 2168.3329.5471.5726.6 20 3303.8529.0762.01132. 20 4225.5386.8542.9831.8 20 5356.5570.5777.11141. 20 6273.6474.8718.71437 20 7328.4523.0727.61118 20 8541.8781.61009.1398 20 9449.5637.9838.61287 2010540.2779.51020.1464 0000 Demand PARAMETERS by TYPE 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 01) 21 1 0- .440- .118. 3543. 2808. 289456. 8972. 87159. 91 .227 21 2 0- .486- .128. 321 3. 1855. 174766. 3070. 96168. 31 .215 21 3 o - .372- .107. 2966. 2735. 140090. 44156 .4303. 81 .220 21 4 0- .462- . 195. 301 7. 0731 . 130284. 5798. 82225. 51 .220 21 5 o - .341- .169. 1851. 1 1 26-.08399. 15190 .7356. 51 .217 21 6 o - .477- .216. 2468. 0046. 038382. 401 1 6 .3273. 61 .576 21 7 o - .439- .289. 2901- .162. 120288. 691 52 .7328. 41 .594 21 8 o - .291- .131. 1859. 1 663- .05895. 86312 .0541. 81 .633 21 9 o - .339- .101. 2848. 31 67. 141289. 85241 .7449. 51 .676 2110 0- .298- . 1 03. 2595. 2690. 101095. 47308 .6540. 21 .661 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 02) 22 1 o - .340- .143. 1911. 2093- .06381. 481 56 .0292. 51 .221 22 2 0- .314- .141. 1670. 1990- .13884. 66182 .8329. 51 .220 22 3 0- .218- . 1 03. 1 240. 2784- .20694. 53334 .4529. 01 .219 22 4 0- .326- . 1 46. 2476. 1753. 0800102 .721 1 .6386. 81 .217 22 5 o - .218- .112. 1097. 251 4- .274102 . 1 360 .7570. 51 .217 22 6 0- .345- . 1 64. 2533. 1244. 0838106 .0253 .8474. 81 .522 22 7 o - .289- . 1 05. 2064. 3493. 084193. 85300 .4523. 01 .612 22 8 0- .218- .095. 1644. 2748- .034104 .0495 .0781. 61 .630 22 9 0- .270- .118. 1791 . 2309- .112103 .9376 .4637. 91 .661 221 0 0- .229- .112. 1 536. 2655- .086107 .0486 .5779. 51 .658 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 03) 23 1 o - .240- .109. 1255. 3057- .227108 .0337 .1549. 61 .224 23 2 0- .232- .095. 1 228. 3495- .18990. 1 6292 .4471 . 51 .217 23 3 o - . 1 62-.067. 0839. 3845- .290101 .451 6 .0762. 01 .220 23 4 0- .230- .110. 1 204. 271 0- .210102 . 1 338 .0542. 91 .222 23 5 0- . 1 70-.079. 0659. 3491 - .434108 .9520 .9777. 1 1 .219 23 6 0- .279- . 1 43. 1220. 1121- .282130 .441 9 .4718. 71 .541 23 7 o - .245- . 1 42. 0831 . 0799- .419111 .6446 .9727. 61 .563 23 8 0- .202- . 1 02. 1383. 2491- .104123 .4651 .91009 .640 23 9 o - .252- .097. 2399. 3272. 1704126 .6507 .4838. 6 .668 2310 0- .201- .095. 1683. 2867. 0661121 .9660 .71020 • .662 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 04) 24 1 0- . 1 52-.078. 0798. 3205- .287138 .2773 .11126 .227 24 2 o - .188- .082. 1017. 3651- .263110 .9476 .8726. 61 .233 24 3 o - . 1 28-.074. 0827. 3097- .226117 .9798 .71132 • .222. 24 4 o - .185- .099. 0941 . 2651- .297126 . 1 548 .6831. 81 .215 24 5 o - . 1 36-.066. 0785. 3620- .257127 .2797 .51141 • .214 24 6 o - .184- .086. 1 227. 3494- .169168 .8948 . 11437 .549 24 7 o - .159- .065. 0712. 41 00- .346110 .8760 .01118 • .609 24 8 o - . 1 68-.088. 1003. 2829- .159141 .8942 .31398 • .634 24 9 o - .224- .117. 1 1 58. 2239- .221170 .4809 .61287 • .674 2410 o - .188- .120. 1298. 1333- .083162 .4968 .61464 • .644 F i g u r e A3:27-5(cont) SASKATOON: MODIFIED P o l i c y Dataset 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" DWELLINGS 30 1 30 1 1 30 2 53 1 1 30 3 68 1 1 30 4 80 1 1 30 5 90 1 1 30 6 105 1 1 30 7 142 1 1 30 8 48 2 1 30 9 70 2 1 3010 84 2 1 301 1 104 2 1 301 2 141 2 1 301 3 61 3 1 301 4 86 3 1 301 5 120 3 1 301 6 76 4 1 301 7 98 4 1 3018 146 4 1 301 9 34 5 1 3020 78 5 1 3021 41 1 2 3022 54 1 2 3023 66 1 2 0000 ZONAL Data 40 1 7044 25 40 411131 62 0000 Parameters 50 10.100 50 30.550 50 50.500 50110.330 50160.330 50201.237 3024 75 1 2 3025 80 1 2 3026 83 1 2 3027 87 1 2 3028 91 1 2 3029 95 1 2 3030 99 1 2 3031 104 1 2 3032 110 1 2 3033 1 1 7 1 2 3034 1 30 1 2 3035 52 2 2 3036 70 2 2 3037 76 2 2 3038 81 2 2 3039 87 2 2 3040 92 2 2 3041 97 2 2 3042 102 2 2 3043 107 2 2 3044 1 16 2 2 3045 1 35 2 2 3046 41 3 2 40 2 7885 29 40 5 3037 5 50 20 .0 50 40 .400 50 60 .600 501 20 .890 501 71 .300 609 3047 54 3 2 3048 66 3 2 3049 78 3 2 3050 83 3 2 3051 88 3 2 3052 92 3 2 3053 96 3 2 3054 101 3 2 3055 1 05 3 2 3056 1 1 2 3 2 3057 1 22 3 2 3058 141 3 2 3059 84 4 2 3060 98 4 2 3061 101 4 2 3062 104 4 2 3063 108 4 2 3064 1 1 1 4 2 3065 1 1 4 4 2 3066 122 4 2 3067 141 4 2 40 3 6898 54 40 614109 43 50 70 .927 50 81 .043 501 3 57.0 5018 70.0 F i g u r e A3:27-5(cont) SASKATOON: MODIFIED P o l i c y Dataset 610 ( SUDBURY Number of Zones: 05 D i s t r i b u t i o n of Census T r a c t s to Zones: Zone 1961 1971 1 4 6 2 7 8 3 5 5 4 3 3 5 2 2 A 4 T o t a l 21 28 note: "A" i n d i c a t e s annexed t r a c t s . • • annexed census t r a c t s i n c l u d e d i n Zone 5 S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : monthly rent value income accei 1961 1971 1961 1971 1 961 1971 1 87. 147. 14,726. 26,957 4,879. 13,503 • 79 2 68. 105. 10,647. 20,497 4,291. 11,621 • 96 3 87. 127. 18,149. 28,088 4,400. 12,064 25 4 70. 108. 13,300. 20,721 3,841. 9,733 • 18 5 62. 96. 12,572. 19,802 6,032. 13,426 • 97 A 120. 20,311 • 11,356 • 97 t o t a l 78. 122. 14,089. 23,565 4,525. 11,990 • 69 T o t a l D w e l l i ngs i n Zones: 1 961 1 971 d w e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g s %CMA stock NEW %new %CMA new 1 5,414. 9,375. 23.8 3,915. 41 .8 35 .5 2 6,744. 8,645. 21.9 2,349. 27.2 21 .3 3 8,069. 8,175. 20.8 677. 8.3 6 . 1 4 3,978. 4,375. 11.1 708. 16.2 6 .4 5 1 ,643. 1,870. 4.7 322. 17.2 2 .9 A 6,950. 17.6 3,046. 43.8 27 .6 t o t a l 25,848. 39,390. 100.0 11,016. 28.0 100 .0 source: program "CZONE.FORT": f i l e s SUB61.INPUT and SUB71.INPUT. Fi g u r e A3:0!-6 SUDBURY: Zonal C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (5 zones) 612 Figure A3:02-6 SUDBURY: Clustering (5 zones) 613 Demographic C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s : P o p u l a t i o n [1] 1961: 119,694. [2] 1971: 155,425. Households [1] 1961: 26,155. [2] 1971: 39,435. S o u r c e s : [ l ] S t a t i s t i c s Canada. CT 95-535 CT-20 :[2] S t a t i s t i c s Canada. CT 95-728 s e r i e s A Mean Household Incomes: 1971 Census [3] : 11,990. 1974 SHU data [4] : 12,283. d e f l a t o r : 0.9725 SHU d e f l a t e d : 11,989. Sources: [3] S t a t i s t i c s Canada. CT 95-731 s e r i e s B , v a r i a b l e 49 : [4] f i l e SUB.SHU SHU d a t a s e t : Sample s i z e : 2747. Sum of the WEIGHTS : 30,051. RATIO of SHU weights to a c t u a l households : 0.76204 "Model" Households: # SHU a c t u a l household mean # SHU "model" h'hol d s / h'holds type income h'holds h'holds model /"model" 1 11,204. 3,388. 1 1 . 308. 404. 2 13,612. 12,447. 42. 296. 388. 3 13,388. 1,949. 6. 325. 426. 4 13,715. 4,757. 16. 297. 390. 5 7,597. 2,015. 7. 288. 378. 6 7,434. 1,442. 5. 288. 378. 7 8,770. 2,422. 8. 303. 398. 8 4,634. 1,631 . 5. 326. 428. source: program "HH1.FORT" : f i l e SUB.SHU F i g u r e A3:03-6 SUDBURY: HOUSEHOLD C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . 614 T o t a l 1961 d w e l l i n g s : 25,848. Rental Owner-occupier 11,087. 14,761. S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : zone rent #rental value #0-0 annual u n i t s u n i t s r e n t / v a l u e 1 84. 1,416. 14,616. 3,998. 0.0696 2 67. 1,862. 1 0,458. 4,882. 0.0768 3 87. 4,164. 18,158. 3,905. 0.0576 4 69. 2,268. 1 3,267. 1,710. 0.0624 5 63. 1,377. 12,058. 266. 0.0636 t o t a l 77. 11,087. 13,974. 14,761. 0.0660 source: program "D61.FORT" : dataset SUB61.INPUT. 1961 "Model" D w e l l i n g s : d e r i v a t i o n : 1961 Dwellings : TOTAL : RATIO of EXISTING unannexed/TOTAL : TOTAL 1961 Dwellings EXISTING i n 1971 : TOTAL 1961 Dwellings ADJUSTED f o r ANNEXED 1971 "model" Dwellings 1971 RATIO ACTUAL/"model" 1961 "model" Dwellings d i s t r i b u t i o n : zone 1 2 3 4 5 # d w e l l i n g s 5,414. 6,744. 8,069. 3,978. 1,643. # "model' d w e l l i n g 16. 20. 23. 12. 5. a c t u a l / "model" 338. 337. 351 . 332. 329. 25,848. 94.7% 28,374. 29,972. 100. 394. 76. 'RHS"/actual SERVICES c a l c u l a t e d weighted 1 .0746 1.3916 0.8575 0.9456 1 .6199 0.9681 1 .2538-0.7725 0.8519 1.4594 e r r o r of f i t 0.01895 source: program "D61.FORT" : dataset SUB61.INPUT. F i g u r e A3:04-6 SUDBURY: 1961 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . OWNER/OCCUPIER MODEL RENTAL MODEL O.L.S. W.L.S. O.L.S. W.L.S. CONSTANT 8.0494 (6.76) 5.2694 (4.38) 6.7374 (7.88) 7.1240 (10.9) MULTIPLE 0.4937 (2.86) 0.3714 (2.48) -.1081 (0.87) .0418 (0.43) CONSTRUCTED PRE 20 -.3968 (3.08) -.3126 (2.25) -.5104 (5.51) .4880 (7.79) 20-45 -.3899 (3.48) -.3099 (3.31) -.2274 (2.82) .2101 (3.28) CONDITION 0.1975 (1.81) 0.1343 (1.40) 0.2429 (3.10) 0.2081 (3.31) LN ROOMS 0.7925 (3.61) 1.0041 (5.12) 0.5176 (3.28) 0.5544 (4.60) LN INCOME 0.0496 (0.34) 0.3489 (2.43) 0.0549 (0.52) -.1104 (1.40) ACCESS -.0054 (5.31) -.0054 (6.40) -.0036 (4.96) -.0038 (6.27) R2 OBSERVATIONS 0.47 1 50 0.99 150 0.45 1 49 0.99 1 49 note " t " s t a t i s t i s i n brackets data source: SUB61.EA MEANS: LN INCOME MULTIPLE ACCESS 8.3909 0.4156 57.0 F i g u r e A3:05-6 SUDBURY: 1961 Hedonic Estimates 616 T o t a l 1971 d w e l l i n g s : 39,405. Rental : 16,540. Owner-occupier : 22,865. S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : zone rent #rental value #o-o annual u n i t s u n i t s r e n t / v a l u e 1 1 48. 3,295. 26,949. 6,085 0.0660 2 1 03. 2,540. 20,631. 6,105. 0.0600 3 126. 4,500. 28,343. 3,680. 0.0540 4 108. 2,635. 20,842. 1,745. 0.0624 5 . 108. 3,570. 20,201 . 5,250. 0.0636 t o t a l 1 20. 16,540. 23,471. 22,865. 0.0612 source: program "D71.FORT" : da t a s e t SUB71.INPUT. 1971 "Model" Dw e l l i n g s : t o t a l number of "model" d w e l l i n g s : 100. d i s t r i b u t i o n : # "RHS"/actual SERVICES # "model" a c t u a l / zone d w e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g "model" c a l c u l a t e d weighted 1 9,380. 25. 375. 0.9164 0.8946 2 8,645. 23. 376. 1 . 1389 1.1118 3 8, 180. 22. 372. 0.8136 0.7942 4 4,380. 12. 365. 0.9900 0.9664 5 8,820. 23. 384. 1.1900 1.1617 394. e r r o r of f i t 0.01363 source: program "D71.FORT" : da t a s e t SUB71.INPUT. F i g u r e A3:06-6 SUDBURY: 1971 Dwelling C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . ["GAMMA" C a l i b r a t i o n Set] 617 T o t a l 1971 d w e l l i n g s : 39,405. B u i l t p r i o r 1961 : 28,379. B u i l t 1961-1971 : 11,026. S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : zone rent #rental . value #o-o annual u n i t s u n i t s r e n t / v a l u e 1 1 25. 1 ,672. 25,153. 3,789. 0.0600 2 95. 1,959. 20,226. 4,334. 0.0564 3 1 24. 4,129. 29,108. 3,374. 0.0516 4 110. 2,138. 22,587. 1,533. 0.0588 5 87. 2,511. 18,844. 2,939. 0.0552 99 151. 4,129. 27,073. 6,897. 0.0672 CMA 1 20. 16,540. 24,399. 22,865. 0.0588 source: program "D71.FORT" : dataset SUB71.INPUT. 1971 "Model" D w e l l i n g s : t o t a l number of "model" d w e l l i n g s : 100. d i s t r i b u t i o n : # "RHS"/actual SERVICES # "model" a c t u a l / zone d w e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g "model" c a l c u l a t e d weighted 1 5,461. 14. 390. 0.9894 0.9321 2 6,293. 16. 393. 1.1760 1.1078 ' 3 7,503. 19. 395. 0.8096 0.7627 4 3,671. 9. 408. 0.9454 0.8906 5 5,450. 14. 389. 1.3300 1.2530 99 1 1 ,026. 28. 394. 1.0253 0.9659 394. e r r o r of f i t 0.00711 source: program "D71.FORT" : dataset SUB71.INPUT. F i g u r e A3:07-6 SUDBURY: 1971 Dwelling C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . ["BETA" C a l i b r a t i o n Set] 618 OWNER/OCCUPIER MODEL O.L.S. W.L.S. CONSTANT MULTIPLE CONSTRUCTION 51-60 46-50 20-45 PRE 20 FACILITIES LN INCOME LN ROOMS R2 OBSERVATIONS 8.950 (58.2) 0.2491 (8.99) -.1789 (5.70) -.3249 (8.53) -.3353 (10.3) -.4027 (8.34) 0. 1539 (2.73) 0.0678 (4.41 ) 0.3022 (7.89) 0.25 1070 8.645 (52.6) 0.2520 (9.02) -.1489 (5.33) -.2974 (8.16) -.3262 (10.5) -.3954 (8.13) 0.1966 (3.11) 0.0867 (5.22) 0.3515 (8.87) 0.98 1 070 RENTAL O.L.S. 6.012 (39.3) 0.1689 (5.46) -.1719 (4.54) -.2365 (5.95) -.2862 (8.79) -.4837 (11.9) 0.2042 (4.94) 0.0941 (5.69) 0.1967 (6.17) 0.24 1 1 44 MODEL W.L.S. 6.049 (38.7) 0.1588 (5.17) -.1692 (4.43) -.2676 (6.80) -.2929 (8.96) -.5066 (12.4) 0.2215 (4.93) 0.0931 (5.54) 0.1681 (5.02) 0.93 1 1 44 WEIGHTED 20-45/PRE 20 -.3493 -.3406 -.3500 -.3620 note MEANS: " t " s t a t i s t i s i n brackets data source: SUB.SHU weighted c o e f f i c i e n t f o r 20-45 and pre 20 used as a c t u a l census data combines these v a r i a b l e s LN INCOME 9.1291 MULTIPLE 0.2262 ACCESS 73.0 Fig u r e A3:08-6 SUDBURY: 1971 Hedonic Estimates 619 adjustment v a l u e s : 1971 Census 23,565. 122. 11,990. PRICE RENT INCOME R/V r a t i o : 0.0612 r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s and ALPHAs: O.L.S. MODEL 1974 SHU 35,866. 139. 12,283. d e f l a t o r 0.65703 0.87769 0.9725 P ( j ) / P N r a t i o : 1.03320 W.L.S. MODEL CONSTANT (TYPE 1) DUMMY (TYPE 2) DUMMY (TYPE 3) DUMMY (TYPE 4) DUMMY (TYPE 5) DUMMY (TYPE 6) DUMMY (TYPE 7) DUMMY (TYPE 8) R2 OBSERVATIONS c o e f f i c i e n t s ALPHAS [1] 2.6876 (99.5) -.1978 (6.20) -.1316 (2.89) -.2837 (7.44) 0. 1973 (4.47) 0.3283 (6.81) 0.1052 (2.41) 0.5179 (11.0) 0.17 261 4 0. 1470 0. 1206 0. 1288 0.1107 0.1790 0.2041 0.1633 0.2460 c o e f f i c i e n t s 2.6641 (99.5) -.1902 (6.16) -.1086 (2.37) -.2742 (7.54) 0.2439 (5.23) 0.3600 (7.22) 0. 1224 (2.77) 0.4947 (9.76) 0.58 261 4 ALPHAS [1] C2] 0.1436 0.1423 0. 1178 0. 1176 0.1288 0.1276 0.1091 0.1081 0.1837 0.1821 0.2058 0.2041 0.1622 0.1608 0.2354 0.2335 n o t e : [ l ] ALPHA values are c a l c u l a t e d as; ALPHA(1) = EXP(INTERCEPT) ALPHA(2)-(8) = EXP(INTERCEPT+COEFFICIENT) [2] ALPHA values a d j u s t e d as d e s c r i b e d i n S e c t i o n A1.32 [3] " t " values i n bra c k e t s F i g u r e A3:09-6 SUDBURY: Household ALPHAS 620 r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s and ALPHAs R log( ) = log ( a ) + l o g ( Y ( i ) ) Y ( i ) O.L.S. MODEL W.L.S. MODEL ALPHAS [1] CONSTANT (TYPE 1) c o e f f i c i e n t 9.5233 (58.0) c o e f f i c i e n t 9.4224 (56.7) at 0. mean [2] 1314 lowest 0.0868 highest 0.2943 DUMMY (TYPE 2) -.0214 (0.85) -.0248 (1.02) 0. 1112 0. 0656 0.4063 DUMMY (TYPE 3) 0.0523 (1.47) 0.0537 (1.50) 0. 1217 0. 091 1 0.1849 DUMMY (TYPE 4) -.0943 (3.16) -.1001 (3.49) 0. 1 025 0. 0670 0.1910 DUMMY (TYPE 5) -.0620 (1.79) -.0454 (1.23) 0. 1 670 0. 1098 0.2767 DUMMY (TYPE 6) 0.071 1 (1.88) 0.0635 (1.60) 0. 1893 0. 1 392 0.3398 DUMMY (TYPE 7) -. 1 233 (3.62) -.1181 (3.38) 0. 1 398 0. 0960 0.3356 DUMMY (TYPE 8) -.1306 (3.30) -.1829 (4.27) 0. 2094 0. 1 426 0.3417 LN INCOME -.7469 (42.0) -.7343 (41.0) R2 0.50 0.75 OBSERVATIONS 261 4 261 4 note: [1] ALPHA values are c a l c u l a t e d by the s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m program by s u b s t i t u t i n g the household's "model" incomes, as de s c r i b e d i n S e c t i o n A1.32. These are unadjusted v a l u e s . [2] c a l c u l a t e d by s u b s t i t u t i n g TYPEs mean income. [3] " t " values i n b r a c k e t s . F i g u r e A3:09-6(b) SUDBURY: Household ALPHAs [modified] 621 Operating and C a p i t a l C o s t s : Annual Annual Weighted Weighted Operating C a p i t a l D w e l l i n g Operating C a p i t a l Year Costs Costs S t a r t s Weight Costs Costs 1 961 797.0 992. 838 - - -1 962 808.0 982. 1 ,232 0. 1 04 84.0 1 02. 1 1 963 819.0 995. 484 0.041 33.6 40.8 1964 838.0 1009. 271 0.023 19.3 23.2 1965 862.0 1079. 309 0.026 22.4 28. 1 1 966 890.0 1280. 394 0.033 29.3 42.2 1 967 930.0 1 327. 884 0.075 69.7 99.5 1 968 985.0 1 625. 743 0.063 62.0 102.4 1 969 1040.0 21 07. 1 ,779 0.151 157.0 318.2 1 970 1112.0 2430. 1 ,961 0. 1 66 184.6 403.4 1 971 1178.0 2298. 3,761 0.318 374.7 730.8 "Model" Costs : Annual Annual T o t a l Operating C a p i t a l Annual Costs Costs Cost PO PC PN QM 1 961 7 9 7 . 0 9 9 2 . 0 1 7 8 9 . o 0 . 4 4 6 0 . 5 5 4 1 . 0 0 0 decade weighted 1 0 3 7 . 0 1 8 9 1 . 0 2 9 2 8 . o 0 . 5 8 1 1 . 0 5 9 1 . 6 4 0 33 1 971 1 1 7 8 . 0 2 2 9 8 . 3 3 4 7 6 . 3 0 . 6 5 8 1 . 2 8 5 1 . 9 4 3 28 I F i g u r e A3:10-6 SUDBURY: P r i c e s , Costs and Q u a n t i t i e s [New C o n s t r u c t i o n ] 0000 GAMMA CALIBRATION 0000 INCOME by TYPE 0000 "MODEL" HOUSEHOLDS 20 111204 10 1 1796 1 105127128 2 20 213612 10 2 4301 1 105230990 2 20 313387 10 3 6532 1 105345110 2 20 413715 10 4 7949 1 1054 5180 3 20 5 7597 10 5 9244 1 1055 8837 3 20 6 7433 10 610214 1 105610831 3 20 7 8769 10 711523 1 105713883 3 20 8 4633 10 813361 1 105816909 3 10 915125 1 105925825 3 0000 ALPHA by TYPE 101017034 1 1060 3338 4 21 1.1436 101128650 1 1061 5501 4 21 2.1187 1012 718 2 1062 7139 4 21 3.1288 1013 2388 2 1063 8131 4 21 4.1091 1014 3637 2 1064 9043 4 21 5.1837 1015 5260 2 1065 9810 4 21 6.2058 1016 6328 2 106610621 4 21 7.1622 1017 7245 2 106711653 4 21 8.2354 1018 7920 2 106812768 4 1019 8348 2 106914390 4 1020 8788 2 107015652 4 1021 9048 2 107117022 4 1022 9537 2 1 07218324 4 1023 9840 2 107319812 4 102410043 2 107422594 4 1 02510233 2 107535935 4 102610571 . 2 1076 2416 5 102710851 2 1077 3880 5 102811058 2 1078 4679 5 102911389 2 1079 5644 5 103011622 2 1080 7100 5 103111750 2 1081 9813 5 103212015 2 108219700 5 103312320 2 1083 1970 6 > 103412681 2 1084 4387 6 103512965 2 1085 7122 6 103613548 2 1086 9044 6 103713891 2 108714938 6 1 03814313 2 •1088 1201 7 103914680 2 1089 3090 7 1 04014905 2 1090 5282 7 1041i 5510 2 1091 7352 7 104215927 2 1092 9036 7 104316336 2 109310388 7 104416773 2 109413331 7 104517576 2 109520563 7 104618579 2 1096 1525 8 104719566 2 1097 2219 8 104820794 2 1098 3341 8 104922430 2 1099 5251 8 105024581 2 110011094 8 Fi g u r e A3:11-6 SUDBURY: "GAMMA" C a l i b r a t i o n Data 623 0000 GAMMA CALIBRATION 0000 "MODEL" Dwellings 30 1 26 22 1 3035 62 52 2 3069 39 33 4 30 2 37 32 1 3036 65 55 2 3070 46 39 4 30 3 43 36 1 3037 68 57 2 3071 53 44 4 30 4 47 40 1 3038 71 60 2 3072 59 50 4 30 5 51 43 1 3039 75 63 2 3073 64 54 4 30 6 54 46 1 3040 80 67 2 3074 70 59 4 30 7 57 48 1 3041 85 72 2 3075 76 64 4 30 8 60 50 1 3042 92 77 2 3076 83 70 4 30 9 62 52 1 3043 99 84 2 3077 93 79 4 301 0 65 55 1 3044 109 92 2 3078 1 1 5 97 4 301 1 67 57 1 3045 122 103 2 3079 21 18 5 301 2 70 59 1 3046 151 128 2 3080 37 31 5 301 3 72 61 1 3047 25 21 3 3081 44 37 5 301 4 75 63 1 3048 33 28 3 3082 49 42 5 301 5 78 66 1 3049 37 32 3 3083 54 46 5 301 6 81 69 1 3050 42 35 3 3084 58 49 5 301 7 86 72 1 3051 45 38 3 3085 61 51 5 3018 91 77 1 3052 48 41 3 3086 64 54 5 301 9 97 81 1 3053 51 43 3 3087 67 57 5 3020 102 86 1 3054 54 45 3 3088 70 59 5 3021 108 91 1 3055 57 48 3 3089 73 61 5 3022 1 1 3 95 1 3056 60 51 3 3090 76 64 5 3023 119 100 1 3057 63 53 3 3091 80 67 5 3024 1 37 1 1 6 1 3058 66 56 3 3092 83 70 5 3025 10 9 2 3059 70 59 3 3093 87 74 5 3026 24 20 2 3060 73 61 3 3094 92 78 5 3027 33 28 2 3061 76 64 3 3095 98 82 5 3028 39 33 2 3062 79 67 3 3096 1 05 89 5 3029 43 36 2 3063 83 70 3 3097 1 1 4 96 5 3030 47 39 2 3064 87 74 3 3098 1 25 106 5 3031 50 42 2 3065 92 78 3 3099 1 42 120 5 3032 53 45 2 3066 98 83 3 31 00 1 67 141 5 3033 56 47 2 3067 1 19 101 3 3034 59 50 2 3068 26 22 4 0000 ZONAL DATA 40 113503 79 40 211621 96 40 312064 25 40 4 9733 18 40 511795 97 40 611990 68 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n Data 70 1 1 .6760. 12 30.5980.0590.0900.0410.0260.0480.015135021.000 74.9 70 21 .6730. 1 380.6160.0570.0660.0490.0110.0430.020116211.000 67.9 70 31.7240.0930.4080.0690.1480.0790.0430.1020.058120641.000 64.7 70 41.7840.1280.4480.0680.0890.0880.0450.0870.047 97321.000 65.8 70 51 .5670.1540.6360.0580.0580.0420.0100.0260.016117931.000 80.3 70 60.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 00.0 0.0 Fig u r e A3:11-6A SUDBURY: "GAMMA" C a l i b r a t i o n Data 624 0000 BETA CALIBRATION 0000 INCOME by TYPE 0000 "MODEL" HOUSEHOLDS 20 111204 10 1 1796 1 105127128 2 20 213612 10 2 4301 1 105230990 2 20 313387 10 3 6532 1 105345110 2 20 413715 10 4 7949 1 1054 5180 3 20 5 7597 10 5 9244 1 1055 8837 3 20 6 7433 10 610214 1 105610831 3 20 7 8769 10 711523 1 105713883 3 20 8 4633 10 813361 1 105816909 3 10 915125 1 105925825 3 0000 ALPHA by TYPE 101017034 1 1060 3338 4 21 1.1436 101128650 1 1061 5501 4 21 2.1187 1012 718 2 1062 7139 4 21 3.1288 1013 2388 2 1063 8131 4 21 4.1091 1014 3637 2 1064 9043 4 21 5.1837 1015 5260 2 1065 9810 4 21 6.2058 1016 6328 2 106610621 4 21 7.1622 1017 7245 2 106711653 4 21 8.2354 1018 7920 2 106812768 4 1019 8348 2 106914390 4 1020 8788 2 107015652 4 1021 9048 2 107117022 4 1022 9537 2 107218324 4 1023 9840 2 107319812 4 102410043 2 107422594 4 102510233 2 1 07535935 4 102610571 2 1076 2416 5 102710851 2 1077 3880 5 102811058 2 1078 4679 5 102911389 2 1079 5644 5 103011622 2 1080 7100 5 103111750 2 1081 9813 5 10321201 5 2 108219700 5 103312320 2 1083 1970 6 103412681 2 1084 4387 6 103512965 2 1085 7122 6 103613548 2 1086 9044 6 103713891 2 108714938 6 103814313 2 1088 1201 7 103914680 2 1089 3090 7 104014905 2 1090 5282 7 104115510 2 1091 7352 7 104215927 2 1092 9036 7 104316336 2 109310388 7 104416773 2 109413331 7 104517576 2 109520563 7 104618579 2 1096 1525 8 104719566 2 1097 2219 8 104820794 2 1098 3341 8 104922430 2 1099 5251 8 105024581 2 110011094 8 F i g u r e A3:12-6 SUDBURY: "BETA" C a l i b r a t i o n Data 625 0000 BETA CALIBRATION 0000 "MODEL" Dwellings 30 1 40 1 3035 140 30 2 56 1 3036 192 30 3 64 1 3037 30 30 4 69 1 3038 43 30 5 74 1 3039 48 30 6 79 1 3040 52 30 7 85 1 3041 55 30 8 89 1 3042 57 30 9 93 1 3043 60 301 0 97 1 3044 62 301 1 1 02 1 3045 65 301 2 1 07 1 3046 67 301 3 1 1 2 1 3047 70 301 4 1 19 1 3048 72 301 5 1 32 1 3049 75 301 6 161 1 3050 79 301 7 23 2 3051 82 3018 38 2 3052 86 3019 48 2 3053 90 3020 58 2 3054 95 3021 66 2 3055 1 02 3022 70 2 3056 109 3023 74 2 3057 1 1 9 3024 78 2 3058 1 38 3025 82 2 3059 181 3026 86 2 3060 26 3027 90 2 3061 42 3028 94 2 3062 48 3029 98 2 3063 53 3030 1 02 2 3064 57 3031 1 06 2 3065 61 3032 1 1 2 2 3066 65 3033 1 20 2 3067 70 3034 1 30 2 3068 77 0000 ZONAL DATA 40 113503 79 40 211621 96 40 312064 25 40 4 9733 18 40 511795 97 40 611990 68 0000 C a l i b r a t ion Data 70 1 1 .7240. 1 230. 5850 0600. 0920. 70 21 .6940. 1 380. 6160 0570. 0660. 70 31 .7300. 0930. 4090 0690. 1 480. 70 41 .7800. 1 280. 4470 0680. 0890. 70 51 .6800. 1 430. 6340 0560. 0690. 70 61 .6400. 1 400. 6000 0590. 0720. F i g u r e A3:12-6A SUDBURY 2 3069 84 4 2 3070 93 4 3 3071 123 4 3 3072 51 5 3 3073 83 5 3 3074 97 5 3 3075 1 1 1 5 3 3076 151 5 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 0460.0270.0500.017131181.000 69.3 0490.0110.0430.020116010.934 65.9 0790.0430.1020.058120380.930 64.0 0880.0440.0870.047 96700.924 65.1 0450.0090.0270.017120431.000 73.7 0440.0200.0460.020123641.000 86.5 : "BETA" C a l i b r a t i o n Data 626 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" HOUSEHOLDS and B 10 1 1796 1 391 .201 30 4 10 2 4301 1 31 .447 46 5 10 3 6532 1 9991 .640 56 1 10 4 7949 1 251 .592 64 1 10 5 9244 1 9991 .640 69 2 10 610214 - 1 741 .570 75 0 10 711523 1 1 1 1 .598 79 9 10 813361 1 321 .592 87 5 10 915125 1 141 .610 93 8 101017034 1 151 .569102 0 101128650 1 591 .564139 6 1012 718 2 380 .774 20 3 1013 2388 2 621 .254 31 4 1014 3637 2 41 1 .376 38 5 1015 5260 2 651 .512 45 8 1016 6328 2 661 .570 50 2 1017 7245 2 471 .579 54 3 1018 7920 2 9991 .640 56 3 1019 8348 2 51 .617 58 5 1020 8788 2 491 .640 59 9 1021 9048 2 681 .628 61 2 1022 9537 2 501 .636 63 0 1023 9840 2 9991 .640 64 2 102410043 2 261 .567 66 4 102510233 2 71 .596 66 5 102610571 2 691 .636 67 0 102710851 2 521 .626 68 3 102811058 2 9991 .640 68 8 102911389 2 81 .619 70 5 103011622 2 9991 .640 70 9 103111750 2 9991 .640 71 4 103212015 2 281 .590 73 4 103312320 2 91 .623 73 8 103412681 2 291 .578 76 . 1 103512965 2 541 .636 75 .8 1 0361 3548 2 9991 .640 77 .7 103713891 2 9991 .640 78 .9 103814313 2 551 .620 80 .8 103914680 2 9991 .640 81 6 104014905 2 9991 .640 82 3 104115510 2 121 .621 84 8 104215927 2 751 .594 86 8 104316336 2 561 .637 87 0 104416773 2 9991 .640 88 4 104517576 2 331 .570 92 8 104618579 2 571 .623 94 4 104719566 2 341 .550 99 5 104820794 2 351 .504104 8 104922430 2 581 .578 1 07 1 105024581 2 9991 .640111 1 DATA 05127128 2 9991 .640117. 9 05230990 2 9991 .640127. 7 05345110 2 9991 .640160. 0 054 5180 3 441 .573 48. 0 055 8837 3 9991 .640 64. 8 05610831 3 9991 .640 73. 3 05713883 3 9991 .640 85. 0 05816909 3 9991 .640 95. 7 05925825 3 161 . 585125. 4 060 3338 4 401 .293 34. 7 061 5501 4 641 .527 43. 1 062 7139 4 451 .558 50. 0 063 8131 4 461 .620 53. 0 064 9043 4 9991 .640 56. 2 065 9810 4 241 .569 60. 3 06610621 4 61 .614 62. 4 06711653 4 51 1 .638 65. 5 06812768 4 9991 .640 69. 2 06914390 4 701 .639 74. 3 07015652 4 9991 .640 78. 1 07117022 4 9991 .640 82. 2 07218324 4 9991 .640 85. 9 07319812 4 9991 .640 90. 0 07422594 4 71 1 .627 97. 8 07535935 4 361 .423137. 8 076 2416 5 21 .320 38. 0 077 3880 5 21 1 .448 48. 0 078 4679 5 221 .510 52. 5 079 5644 5 231 .578 57. 4 080 7100 5 731 .607 65. 3 081 9813 5 301 .592 79. 7 08219700 5 9991 .640119. 3 083 1970 6 631 .361 36. 8 084 4387 6 671 .590 54. 6 085 7122 6 531 .640 71 . 9 086 9044 6 31 1 .614 83. 7 08714938 6 9991 .640112. 2 088 1201 7 191 .017 27. 1 089 3090 7 421 .383 40. 0 090 5282 7 41 .533 52. 4 091 7352 7 9991 .640 61 . 7 092 9036 7 271 .602 70. 7 09310388 7 101 .613 76. 6 09413331 7 9991 .640 88. 2 09520563 7 761 .5721-1 6. 9 096 1525 8 721 .200 32. 3 097 2219 8 201 .291 38. 7 098 3341 8 431 .515 45. 1 099 5251 8 481 .622 57. 1 10011094 8 131 .630 89. 1 F i g u r e A3:13-6 SUDBURY: P o l i c y Dataset 627 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" DWELLINGS 30 1 40 1 3035 1 40 2 3069 84 4 30 2 56 1 3036 1 92 2 3070 93 4 30 3 64 1 3037 30 3 3071 1 23 4 30 4 69 1 3038 43 3 3072 51 5 30 5 74 1 3039 48 3 3073 83 5 30 6 79 1 3040 52 3 3074 97 5 30 7 85 1 3041 55 3 3075 1 1 1 5 30 8 89 1 3042 57 3 3076 151 5 30 9 93 1 3043 60 3 3010 97 1 3044 62 3 301 1 1 02 1 3045 65 3 301 2 1 07 1 3046 67 3 301 3 1 12 1 3047 70 3 301 4 1 19 1 3048 72 3 301 5 1 32 1 3049 75 3 301 6 161 1 3050 79 3 301 7 23 2 3051 82 3 3018 38 2 3052 86 3 301 9 48 2 3053 90 3 3020 58 2 3054 95 3 3021 66 2 3055 102 3 3022 70 2 3056 109 3 3023 74 2 3057 1 19 3 3024 78 2 3058 138 3 3025 82 2 3059 181 3 3026 86 2 3060 26 4 3027 90 2 3061 42 4 3028 94 2 3062 48 4 3029 98 2 3063 53 4 3030 1 02 2 3064 57 4 3031 1 06 2 3065 61 4 3032 1 12 2 3066 65 4 3033 1 20 2 3067 70 4 3034 1 30 2 3068 77 4 0000 INCOME by TYPE 0000 ALPHA by TYPE 0000 ZONAL DATA 20111204 21 1 . 1 436 40 1 9582 79 20 213612 21 2. 1 187 40 2 9562 96 20 313387 21 3. 1 288 40 3 8008 25 20 413715 21 4. 1091 40 4 6913 18 20 5 7597 21 5. 1837 40 5 9279 97 20 6 7433 21 6. 2058 40 613081 68 20 7 8769 21 7. 1 622 20 8 4633 21 8. 2354 F i g u r e A3:13-6(cont) SUDBURY: P o l i c y Dataset 6 2 8 RENTAL MODEL OWNER-OCCUPIER CONSTANT 2.7332 1.6140 (24.2) (7.59) BATH 0.1530 na (2.78) TOILET -.0753 0.0710 (1.17) (0.78) SUBSIDIS -.6130 -.0050 (21.9) (0.04) LNLIVING 0.2538 0.2401 (7.79) (5.68) LNINCOM 0.1437 0.2567 (10.1) (11.1) TYPE -.0398 -.2579 (2.40) (11.0) LNDIST 0.0066 -.0100 (0.87) (1.11) B51 60 -.1338 -.0647 (5.40) (2.66) B4650 -.1651 -.0732 (6.17) (2.40) B2145 -.1846 -.1461 (8.67) (5.58) BPRE20 -.2083 -.2239 (8.67) (5.93) LGLVSIZE 0.1219 0.1120 (7.75) (3.93) LGBDSIZE 0.0757 0. 1106 (9.33) (6.34) OPENSP -.0382 0.0070 (2.25) (0.30) HIGHDEN -.0676 -.0325 (4.29) (1.11) COMMERC -.0130 na (0.68) NEIGHBD 0.0754 na (3.39) FINANCE -.0429 -.0859 (2.58) (2.80) AMRATE na 0.0671 (14.1) R2 0.63 0.50 Observations 1313 1240 MODEL note: " t " s t a t i s t i c s i n brackets : data source: SUB.REG02 Fi g u r e A3:14-6 SUDBURY: 1971 Hedonic Estimates f o r Translogs 629 t r a n s l o g v a r i a b l e s ph*XH M ph*XH ph pg M TYPE 1 mean 406.9 98.6 1 .542 1 .350 0.2947 min 97.7 30.2 1 .409 1 .350 0.0757 max 2382.4 237.4 1.711 1 .350 0.9755 TYPE 2 mean 513.2 1 16. 1 1 .554 1 .350 0.2870 min 69.8 25.9 1 .394 1 .350 0.0513 max 1530.4 259.0 1 .781 1 .350 0.9143 TYPE 3 mean 921 . 1 141.9 1 .552 1 .350 0.1868 min 88.9 52.7 1 .407 1 .350 0.0304 max 3120.4 340. 1 1 .781 1 .350 0.9134 TYPE 4 mean 601 . 1 1 35.0 1 .577 1 .350 0.2668 min 81.7 31.1 1 .386 1 .350 0.0414 max 1878.1 322.0 1 .781 1 .350 0.9709 TYPE 5 mean 884. 1 1 52.0 1 .580 1 .350 0.1908 min 197.5 4 4.'9 1 .398 1 .350 0.0606 max 2054.2 299.6 1 .781 1 .350 0.6971 TYPE 6 mean 669.2 227.8 1 .856 1 .350 0.3862 min 166.8 50.2 1 .484 1 .350 0.0804 max 2831.5 1268.5 2.000 1 .350 0.9361 TYPE 7 mean 787.9 247.8 1 .855 1 .350 0.3459 min 180.7 56. 1 1 .445 1 .350 0.0750 max 2659.2 595.3 2.010 1 .350 0.8826 TYPE 8 mean 1159.3 267.5 1.911 1 .350 0.2505 min 325.2 81.3 1 .498 1 .350 0.0683 max 3771 . 1 769.3 2.032 1 .350 0.8157 TYPE 9 mean 929.9 271 .5 1 .944 1 .350 0.3045 min 160.9 77. 1 1 .503 1 .350 0.1043 max 2804.0 1327.6 2.053 1 .350 0.8608 TYPE 10 mean 1224.1 286.0 1 .952 1 .350 0.2494 min 181.0 80.8 1 .491 1 .350 0.0451 max 3716.6 1012.5 2.064 1 .350 0.8452 Fig u r e A3:15-6 SUDBURY : T r a n s l o g Input V a r i a b l e s S t a t i s t i c s SHARE = A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.2627 -.1963 0.1929 -.0056 0.0119 63.6 228.4 406.9 155 (95.8) (24.8) (33.8) (0.19) (1.29) 2 -.2374 -.1390 0.1752 0.1181 -.0500 74.7 294.2 513.2 351 (206.) (26.8) (57.2) (7.08) (11.0) 3 -.1598 -.0629 0.1284 0.4000 -.1058 91.5 577.3 921.1 272 (166.) (10.6) (52.8) (17.3) (23.0) 4 -.2373 -.1258 0.1964 0.1611 0.0056 85.6 345.3 601.1 331 (171.) (17.9) (53.4) (5.83) (0.99) 5 -.1763 -.0974 0.1231 0.2432 -.1333 96.1 542.3 884.1 204 (217.) (16.5) (43.1) (7.90) (20.0) 6 -.3533 -.2042 0.2198 0.0258 0.0215 122.4 326.9 669.2 225 (152.) (17.9) (35.9) (0.90) (2.21) 7 -.3256 -.1845 0.1991 0.0242 -.0236 133.9 400.1 787.9 125 (116.) (19.0) (17.3) (0.91) (1.08) 8 -.2372 -.1546 0.1476 0.0639 -.1127 140.4 660.6 1159.3 185 (144.) (17.2) (24.9) (1.97) (9.82) 9 -.2966 -.1708 0.1974 0.1084 -.0201 139.1 487.7 929.9 324 (244.) (30.5) (38.2) (7.62) (2.60) 10 -.2399 -.1551 0.1477 0.0984 -.1066 146.0 694.8 1224.1 381 (221.) (29.2) (37.2) (5.90) (13.1) note: [1] " t " values i n b r a c k e t s [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:16-6 SUDBURY : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [ a l l income l e v e l s ] A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.3380 -.1789 0.2265 0.0891 0.0715 51.4 123.5 245.7 103 (101.) (26.0) (19.2) (5.36) (4.09) 2 -.3507 -.1508 0.2178 0.1401 0.0046 64.7 144.5 295.7 163 (179.) (15.1) (33.7) (5.50) (0.44) 3 -.2171 -.0742 0.1735 0.3550 -.0525 86.1 365.9 626.6 144 (198.) (9.37) (47.9) (13.8) (8.43) 4 -.3206 -.1404 0.2517 0.1681 0.0782 76.0 199.8 389.4 163 (178.) (10.7) (41.1) (4.32) (8.21) 5 -.2152 -.0868 0.1667 0.3443 -.0643 88.3 380.5 652.6 112 (204.) (10.1) (26.7) (8.83) (4.78) 6 -.4388 -.1728 0.3007 0.1054 0.1337 104.9 186.5 444.2 131 (143.) (9.88) (19.6) (2.81) (5.89) 7 -.3914 -.1602 0.2500 0.0815 0.0594 122.7 269.1 587.5 70 (94.2) (8.03) (8.59) (1.71) (1.12) 8 -.2776 -.1631 0.1859 0.1080 -.0575 118.3 446.4 828.1 94 (109.) (7.98) (15.2) (1.65) (2.32) 9 -.3062 -.1446 0.2281 0.1843 0.0218 116.2 383.7 742.2 186 (171.) (14.1) (23.2) (6.54) (1.61) 10 -.2693 -.1664 0.1812 0.0762 -.0642 128.0 514.3 943.8 224 (184.) (19.6) (19.5) (3.21) (3.80) note: [1] " t " val u e s i n brackets [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:17-6 SUDBURY : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x penditure Share [below mean income] SHARE = A1 + B1 1 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.1894 -.0900 0.0914 0.3154 -.2918 87.8 436.1 726.1 52 (163.) (13.4) (16.4) (8.55) (13.0) 2 -.1844 -.0851 0.0843 0.3178 -.3240 83.5 423.9 701.9 188 (264.) (18.8) (10.3) (12.9) (8.46) 3 -.1269 0.0365 0.2226 0.6268 1.5692 97.5 815.1 1252.5 128 (51.5) (4.50) (31.5) (10.9) (32.0) 4 -.1850 -.0790 0.0881 0.3882 -.2891 94.9 486.4 806.6 168 (253.) (17.6) (10.7) (15.8) (7.54) 5 -.1432 -.0804 0.0514 0.2496 -.5291 105.7 739.3 1166.0 92 (154.) (11.9) (4.09) (5.17) (6.52) 6 -.2881 -.1693 0.1730 0.0803 -.0958 146.8 522.7 982.7 94 (117.) (13.0) (13.2) (1.79) (2.77) 7 -.2796 -.0337 0.3389 0.7542 0.7145 148.1 566.8 1043.1 55 (41.9) (1.02) (9.94) (7.23) (6.91) 8 -.2103 -.1378 0.0473 0.0231 -.5214 163.2 882.0 1501.4 91 (116.) (15.0) (2.25) (0.51) (6.06) 9 -.2871 -.1811 0.1549 0.0479 -.1440 169.9 627.9 1182.9 138 (211.) (22. 1 ) (11.4) (1.79) (3.41) 10 -.2098 -.1197 0.0953 0.2013 -.2739 171.7 952.3 1623.9 157 (171.) (18.8) (11.6) (8.36) (9.06) note: [1] " t " values i n b r a c k e t s [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:18-6 SUDBURY : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [above mean income] A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.3836 -.1869 0.2919 0.0965 0.1713 41.1 80.4 171.5 55 (58.8) (5.98) (10.1) (1.30) (4.13) 2 -.4947 -.1967 0.2601 0.0573 0.0689 59.1 70.1 186.1 87 (196.) (14.7) (23.8) (2.02) (4.08) 3 -.2923 -.1072 0.2059 0.2754 -.0101 82.0 234.3 443.5 64 (154.) (7.41) (31.1) (7.16) (0.99) 4 -.4230 -.0998 0.3119 0.2714 0.1680 67.3 110.6 255.1 77 (160.) (5.39) (26.1) (6.08) (9.54) 5 -.2476 -.0842 0.1952 0.3515 -.0102 78.3 281.8 503.4 46 (153.) (6.75) (20.0) (7.63) (0.48) 6 -.4888 -.1385 0.3870 0.1419 0.2543 92.3 133.4 348.5 71 (120.) (3.96) (13.7) (2.13) (6.01) 7 -.4516 -.2290 0.2436 -.0187 0.0329 105.2 178.5 433.1 28 (70.1) (6.69) (10.5) (0.27) (0.91) 8 -.3363 -.1576 0.2208 0.1353 -.0093 107.3 301.5 610.2 43 (79.0) (3.25) (6.43) (1.00) (0.13) 9 -.3537 -.1237 0.2865 0.1998 0.0956 108.8 285.8 591.5 79 (103.) (6.57) (14.4) (4.81) (3.57) 10 -.2993 -.1625 0.2203 0.0870 -.0122 121.2 414.3 792.5 104 (115.) (10.1) (10.6) (2.12) (0.34) note: [1] " t " values i n bracke t s [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:19-6 SUDBURY : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [ q u a r t i l e 01] SHARE = A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BMI BM2 MQH MQX ME . # 1 -.2952 -.1309 0.1405 0.1968 -.1938 63.1 172.8 330.8 48 (154.) • (14.4) (8.81) (6.92) (5.23) 2 -.2629 -.1010 0.1556 0.3258 -.1023 71.1 229.8 421.2 76 (201.) (11.3) (13.4) (9.57) (3.74) 3 -.1770 -.0837 0.0689 0.2640 -.4441 89.4 471.1 773.1 80 (198.) (6.06) (2.82) (3.10) (3.57) 4 -.2601 -.1201 0.1620 0.2502 -.1090 83.8 279.7 509.6 86 (197.) (6.66) (5.75) (3.50) (1.17) 5 -.1973 -.0756 0.0996 0.4194 -.2773 95.3 449.2 756.6 66 (166.) (4.22) (1.82) (4.73) (1.06) 6 -.3962 -.1346 0.3160 0.1316 0.0696 119.8 249.3 557.4 60 (102.) (4.77) (5.86) (1.96) (0.63) 7 -.3628 -.0824 0.4278 0.1417 0.2639 134.4 329.4 690.4 42 (87.3) (3.80) (9.38) (1.84) (3.56) 8 -.2435 -.1463 0.1566 0.1204 -.1836 127.6 568.5 1011.8 51 (78.8) (4.13) (3.48) (0.88) (1.26) 9 -.2787 -.1266 0.2069 0.2084 -.0992 121.6 456.0 853.4 107 (163.) (6.58) (4.02) (2.81) (0.63) 10 -.2474 -.1261 0.2024 0.1896 -.0123 133.9 601.1 1075.0 120 (167.) (7.85) (8.36) (3.10) (0.18) note: [1] " t " values i n brackets [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:20-6 SUDBURY : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [ q u a r t i l e 02] SHARE = A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG -1. + BMI * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.2325 -.0911 0.1516 0.3837 -.1409 78.3 296.0 521.5 37 (174.) (12.0) (10.6) (10.4) (2.89) 2 -.1964 -.0764 0.1417 0.3600 -.1563 76.9 359.5 604.3 118 (84.0) (0.43) (0.17) (0.32) (0.04) 3 -.1333 -.0437 0.1289 0.5124 0.0937 93.8 695.8 1084.1 84 (212.) (4.97) (4.69) (7.74) (0.48) 4 -.1952 -.0772 0.1373 0.3992 -.1273 87.5 415.9 698.1 104 (207.) (7.66) (4.25) (7.27) (0.89) 5 -.1680 -.0881 0.0670 0.2591 -.6217 106.9 621.6 1009.4 58 (149.) (9.32) (1.89) (4.57) (3.29) 6 -.3225 -.1573 0.2394 0.0878 -.0055 135.0 407.7 805.9 65 (109.) (7.15) (6.54) (1.24) (0.06) 7 -.2929 -.1956 0.1115 -.0762 -.4447 140.6 470.8 897.5 40 (73.1) (3.12) (0.94) (0.39) (1.35) 8 -.2141 -.1396 0.0493 -.0397 -.7992 148.2 767.5 1314.8 58 (97.2) (9.15) (1.05) (0.53) (4.35) 9 -.2790 -.1594 0.1546 0.0891 -.2006 146.0 553.5' 1033.9 94 (161.) (6.71) (3.92) (1.09) (1.84) 10 -.2313 -.1133 0.1745 0.2533 -.0974 162.2 782.4 1373.5 103 (138.) (6.87) (5.47) (4.06) (0.94) note: [1] " t " values i n bracke t s [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:21-6 SUDBURY : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x penditure Share [ q u a r t i l e 03] SHARE = A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.1442 -.1004 0.0754 0.1976 -.2981 111.3 781.8 1230.9 15 (61.8) (2.89) (5.83) (0.86) (3.61) 2 -.1698 -.0665 0.0859 0.4107 -.2564 94.6 532.5 866.4 70 (156.) (7.27) (4.30) (7.26) (2.30) 3 -.1051 -.0464 0.0476 0.4675 -.4388 104.61042.8 1574.1 44 (86.9) (3.94) (2.83) (4.55) (2.96) 4 -.1731 -.0741 0.0702 0.3796 -.4062 106.8 601.1 982.9 64 (143.) (12.8) (4.24) (10.6) (4.59) 5 -.1127 -.0500 -.0009 0.4301 -.9916 103.5 940.1 1433.1 34 (87.6) (4.30) (0.03) (4.24) (3.59) 6 -.2339 -.1195 0.1013 0.2617 -.3447 173.1 780.4 1379.2 29 (54.8) (4.84) (3.26) (3.26) (3.02) 7 -.2242 -.1471 0.0485 -.0156 -.5189 168.1 822.9 1431.2 15 (41.4) (3.59) (0.58) (0.07) (1.56) 8 -.2085 -.1887 0.0468 -.2236 -.4927 189.51083.2 1829.5 33 (133.) (15.1) (1.85) (3.72) (3.98) 9 -.2975 -.1942 0.1585 -.0120 -.1548 221.1 786.9 1501.3 44 (135.) (12.5) (7.68) (0.20) (2.25) 10 -.1830 -.0970 0.1041 0.2514 -.1683 189.81276.6 2101.5 54 (120.) (14.0) (9.49) (8.23) (3.51) note: [1] " t " values i n brackets [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:22-6 SUDBURY : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x penditure Share [ q u a r t i l e 04] 637 income e l a s t i c i ty mean below above TYPE 1 Q01 0 .61 96 0.6244 0.6374 Q02 0 .531.1 0.5265 0.5255 Q03 0 .4688 0.5101 0.5325 Q04 0 .31 08 0.3019 0.3009 TYPE 2 Q01 0 .721 3 0.7256 0.7341 Q02 0 .4886 0.5310 0.5366 Q03 0 .4066 0.4219 0.4204 Q04 0 .3585 0.3909 0.4036 TYPE 3 Q01 0 .5298 0.5442 0.5488 Q02 0 .3762 0.3473 0.3539 Q03 0 .2827 0.3505 0.3635 Q04 0 .2724 0.2793 0.2804 TYPE 4 Q01 0 .6817 0.7016 0.7238 Q02 0 .4862 0.5020 0.5029 Q03 0 .4097 0.4468 0.4491 Q04 0 .3988 0.3935 0.3918 TYPE 5 Q01 0 .4821 0.4991 0.5115 Q02 0 .4468 0.4651 0.4617 Q03 0 .3948 0.3443 0.3364 Q04 0 .5352 0.2895 0.2657 TYPE 6 Q01 0 .7184 0.7237 0.7307 Q02 0 .6269 0.6119 0.6032 Q03 0 .5414 0.5212 0.5232 Q04 0 .4977 0.4779 0.4661 TYPE 7 Q01 0 .6663 0.6661 0.6643 Q02 0 .5579 0.4760 0.5460 Q03 0 .4984 0.4414 0.4606 Q04 0 .4568 0.3723 0.3410 TYPE 8 Q01 0 .5647 0.5664 0.5679 Q02 0 .4535 0.4391 0.4387 Q03 0 .4252 0.3348 0.3370 Q04 0 .3715 0.3246 0.3135 TYPE 9 Q01 0 .5884 0.5921 0.5924 Q02 0 .51 34 0.5094 0.5055 Q03 0 .4897 0.4765 0.4776 Q04 0 .5064 0.4875 0.4717 TYPE 10 Q01 0 .5059 0.5017 0.5020 Q02 0 .4560 0.4569 0.4571 Q03 0 .4531 0.4562 0.4582 Q04 0 .3533 0.3691 0.3756 p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y mean below above 1 .0047 1.0099 1.0019 0.9942 -1.3977 -1.2476 -1.2002 -1.2360 -0.7954 -0.8389 -0.7709 -0.5346 1.0018 0.9943 1.0281 0.9930 -1.8629 -1.2767 -1.1146 -1.1543 -0.6289 -0.8512 -0.9542 -0.7688 1.0292 1.0194 1.0047 0.9954 -1.6358 -1.1347 -1.1088 -1.1352 -0.7601 -0.9296 -0.9153 -0.7605 1.0341 1.0071 1.0054 0.9970 -1.6574 -1.2089 -1.0973 -1.1760 -0.7181 -0.8811 -0.9314 -0.7559 1.0342 0.9937 1.0453 1.0072 -1.5833 -1.0677 -1.1480 -1.1330 -0.8288 -0.9266 -0.9386 -0.8007 1.0548 1.1195 1 .0718 0.9934 -1.6078 -1.4132 -1 .2215 -1.3727 -0.8277 -0.9302 -0.9177 -0.6050 1.0170 1.2800 1.0775 1.0258 -1.8105 -1 .2315 -1.1760 -1.3803 -0.7551 -1.4057 -0.9736 -0.5524 1.0249 1.0298 1.1273 1.0306 -1.6759 -1.1812 -1.2755 -1.2393 -0.7775 -0.9121 -1.0163 -0.7286 1.0648 1.0555 1.0303 1.0189 -1.7237 -1.2070 -1.1262 -1.3352 -0.8741 -0.9485 -0.9483 -0.6278 1.0420 1.0393 1 .0235 0.9962 -1.3905 -1.1504 -1.1635 -1.2215 -0.9026 -0.9382 -0.8828 -0.7053 F i g u r e A3:23-6 SUDBURY : Income and P r i c e E l a s t i c i t i e s 638 TYPE 1 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c TYPE 2 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c TYPE 3 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c TYPE 4 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c TYPE 5 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c TYPE 6 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c TYPE 7 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c TYPE 8 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c TYPE 9 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c TYPE 10 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c ALL 321.92 320.73 2.38 880.29 800.76 159.06 757.72 626. 18 263.09 767.99 749.54 36.90 634.95 524.33 221.24 468.75 466. 12 5.27 277.30 275.06 4.47 463.41 425.56 75.70 816.25 791.47 49.56 968.83 874.31 189.04 BELOW 215.37 206.90 16.95 397.23 376.48 41 .50 434.26 378.38 111.76 397.88 361.24 73.27 355.95 296.64 1 18.62 272.88 254. 1 3 37.51 1 48.94 147.22 3.44 228.98 220.76 1 6.43 454.68 434.75 39.85 562.99 542.74 40.50 ABOVE 186. 17 1 42.79 86.75 649.01 562.42 173. 18 279.20 425.74 -293.07 577.08 465.66 222.84 327.94 281.93 92.01 234.82 224. 1 2 21 .39 99.74 131.43 -63.37 260.41 242.43 35.96 390.86 367.44 46.83 462.59 377.20 170.79 Q01 1 25.28 1 08.05 34.45 223.89 215.46 16.86 189.26 1 69.00 40.53 188.59 1 48.84 79.52 1 48.92 1 18.45 60.93 1 57.06 131.33 51 .45 63.46 63.30 0.31 99.49 97.26 4.46 181 .28 1 67.44 27.69 243.24 238.46 9.55 Q02 1 56. 1 0 1 1 5.74 80.72 246.20 183.20 125.98 293.51 266.22 54.58 277.65 258.59 38. 1 1 224. 18 194.54 59.29 1 39. 1 2 1 36.20 5.83 100.49 92.79 1 5.39 1 36. 1 3 1 30.55 11.15 302.33 289.82 25.02 347.39 330.08 34.63 Q03 1 34. 18 106.76 54.83 409.83 354.51 110.64 330.83 301.48 58.71 360.74 314.68 92. 1 1 208.38 1 88. 1 0 40.55 1 64.79 1 62.31 4.94 1 00.85 96.77 8.15 1 67.65 1 53. 1 1 29.08 268.45 254.82 27.27 298.36 270.27 56. 1 7 Q04 56.00 51 .46 9.08 245.60 216.91 57.38 1 61 .95 1 42.76 38.37 221.31 175.39 91 .84 128.29 1 17.34 21 .90 76.95 71 .05 1 1 .79 42.31 41 .56 1 .49 1 18.67 111.32 14.70 129.73 119.31 20.83 175. 1 4 133.91 82.48 F i g u r e A3:24-6 SUDBURY : Log L i k e l i h o o d V a l u e s : [ t e s t of u n i t y income e l a s t i c i t y ] 0000 Demand C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL" MODIFIED HOUSEHOLDS 10 1 1685 1 -6 8 1051 4627 7 1714 333 10 2 2848 1 806 164 1052 7441 7 4154 871 10 3 4646 1 2065 381 1053 8672 7 5775 1290 10 410305 1 9285 2708 1054 9746 7 6658 1585 10 5 1101 2 -20 16 105511355 7 9279 2558 10 6 2004 2 880 189 105618208 720287 8565 10 7 3093 2 1 933 346 1057 6132 8 2396 480 10 8 4424 2 3394 639 1058 9344 8 5576 1 193 10 9 5683 2 4678 973 105911526 8 8826 201 4 1010 6435 2 5773 1 283 106013158 810608 2708 1011 7083 2 6764 1599 106114234 812168 3161 1012 7591 2 7238 1 752 106215546 813135 3372 1013 8052 2 7195 1741 106316879 814724 3985 1014 9296 2 9205 2481 106418667 817000 4654 101511859 213271 4410 106524770 827391 9897 1016 4192 3 21 03 408 1066 3125 9 -427 37 1017 6987 3 5234 1069 1067 6597 9 3097 606 1018 8376 3 6800 1554 1068 7930 9 4634 971 1019 9944 3 9057 21 08 1069 8784 9 5623 1240 102011633 311074 2644 1070 9517 9 6431 1 488 102113114 313242 3437 107110126 9 6809 1619 102214894 315206 3958 107210585 9 7352 1800 102320161 323815 7989 107310910 9 7834 1 961 1024 1088 4 -687 1 7 107411206 9 7786 1 948 1025 2677 4 970 206 107511747 9 8418 21 97 1026 3876 4 1430 255 107612535 9 9398 2586 1027 5132 4 2741 498 107712968 911014 3238 1028 6167 4 3706 712 107813844 911049 3279 1029 6955 4 4475 912 107915459 912153 3807 1030 7642 4 5630 1 246 108021193 922163 9845 1031 8332 4 6523 1517 1081 5734 10 1344 397 1032 8824 4 6726 1 584 1082 9130 10 4899 1141 1033 9670 4 791 1 1 983 1083 9975 10 5543 1 176 103410905 4 9438 2565 108410461 10 6395 1 440 103514206 415364 5534 108511009 10 7669 1970 1036 5411 5 2545 568 108611518 10 7677 1842 1037 7842 5 5347 1 1 60 108711984 10 8302 21 44 1038 9041 5 6934 1596 108812532 10 9669 2554 103910461. 5 8452 2005 108913050 10 9785 2408 104011987 510494 2501 109013651 1 010821 2783 104113477 512488 31 79 109114132 1010324 2663 104218075 519266 591 1 109214647 1011178 2650 1043 3205 6 -1 28 53 109315276 1013217 3467 1044 4427 6 857 183 109416049 1013767 3755 1045 5271 6 1 054 235 109516868 1013658 3960 1046 6412 6 1 962 409 109617577 1016139 4727 1047 7553 6 2703 573 109719286 1018245 5358 1048 8838 6 4116 849 109821642 1020462 6603 104910759 6 6507 1584 109924360 1023950 7207 105015931 611843 3978 11 033654 104472120666 F i g u r e A3:25-6 SUDBURY: Demand C a l i b r a t i o n Data 0000 Demand C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 Mean AFTER TAX INCOME by Household TYPE 20 1171.5330.8521.51231. 20 2186.1421.2604.3866.4 20 3443.5773.11084.1574. 20 4255.1509.6698.1982.9 20 5503.4756.61009.1433. 20 6348.5557.4805.91379 20 7433.1690.4897.51431 20 8610.21012.1315.1830 20 9591.5853.41034.1501 2010792.51075.1374.2102 0000 Demand PARAMETERS by TYPE 0000 (quart i l e 01 ) 21 1 0- .384- .187. 2919. 0965. 171341 . 1380.39171. 51 .520 21 2 0- .495- .197. 2601 . 0573. 068959. 0770.06186. 1 1 .550 21 3 0- .292- .107. 2059. 2754- .01081 . 98234. 3443. 51 .554 21 4 0- .423- .100. 3119. 271 4. 168067. 28110. 6255. 1 1 .580 21 5 0- .248- .084. 1952. 351 5- .01078. 30281 . 8503. 41 .573 21 6 o - .489- . 1 39. 3870. 1419. 254392. 31133. 4348. 51 .819 21 7 0- .452- .229. 2436- .019. 0329105 .2178. 5433. 1 1 .839 21 8 o - .336- . 1 58. 2208. 1 353-.009107 .3301 . 5610. 2-1 .895 21 9 0- .354- . 124. 2865. 1998. 0956108 .8285. 8591 . 51 .885 21 10 o - .299- .163. 2203. 0870- .012121 .2414. 3792. 51 .921 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 02) 22 1 o - .295- .131. 1 405. 1968- .19463. 05172. 8330. 81 .547 22 2 0- .263- .101. 1 556. 3258- .10271 . 11229. 8421 . 21 .559 22 3 o - . 1 77-.084. 0689. 2640- .44489. 43471 . 1773. 1 1 .538 22 4 0- .260- . 1 20. 1 620. 2502- .10983. 76279. 7509. 61 .577 22 5 o - .197- .076. 0996. 4194- .27795. 30449. 2756. 61 .574 22 6 0- .396- . 1 35. 31 60. 1316. 0696119 .8249. 3557. 41 .847 22 7 o - .363- .082. 4278. 1417. 2639134 .4329. 4690. 41 .846 22 8 0- .243- .146. 1 566. 1 204-.184127 .6568. 51012 • .914 22 9 o - .279- . 1 27. 2069. 2084- .099121 .6456. 0853. 41 .953 2210 o - .247- .126. 2024. 1896- .012133 .9601. 1 1 075 . 1 .971 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 03) 23 1 o - .233- .091 . 1516. 3837- .14178. 30296. 0521 . 51 .555 23 2 0- .196- .076. 1417. 3600- .15676. 86359. 5604. 31 .549 23 3 0- . 1 33-.044. 1 289. 5124. 093793. 83695. 81 084 • .546 23 4 0- .195- .077. 1 373. 3992- .12787. 52415. 9698. 1 1 .560 23 5 0- . 1 68-.088. 0670. 2591- .622106 .9621. 61009 • .590 23 6 0- .323- .157. 2394. 0878- .006135 .0407. 7805. 91 .903 23 7 o - .293- .196. 1115- .076- .445140 .6470. 8897. 51 .855 23 8 0- .214- .140. 0493- .040- .799148 .2767. 51315 • .893 23 9 o - .279- .159. 1 546. 0891- .201146 .0553. 51 034 .964 231 0 o - .231- .113. 1745. 2533- .097162 .2782. 41 374 .945 0000 (quart i l e 04) 24 1 0- . 1 44-.100. 0754. 1 976-.298111 .3781. 81 231 .575 24 2 o - . 1 70-.067. 0859. 4107- .25694. 59532. 5866. 41 .564 24 3 0- .105- .046. 0476. 4675- .439104 .61043 .1574 • .584 24 4 o - . 1 73-.074. 0702. 3796- .406106 .8601. 1 982. 91 .600 24 5 o - .113- .050- . 001 . 4301- .992103 .5940. 1 1 433 • .583 24 6 o - .234- . 1 20. 1013. 2617- .345173 .1780. 41 379 • .863 24 7 0- .224- .147. 0485- .016- .519168 .1822. 91 431 • .912 24 8 o - .209- .189. 0468- .224- .493189 .51083 . 1830 • .960 24 9 o - .297- .194. 1585- .012- .155221 .1786. 91 501 .984 2410 0- .183- .097. 1 041 . 251 4- .168189 .81277 .21 02 • .981 F i g u r e A3:25-6(cont) SUDBURY: Demand C a l i b r a t i o n Data 641 0000 Demand C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL" DWELLINGS 30 1 46 1 1 3035 67 5 1 30 2 66 1 1 3036 75 5 1 30 3 78 1 1 3037 83 5 1 30 4 88 1 1 3038 90 5 1 30 5 97 1 1 3039 101 5 1 30 6 1 03 1 1 3040 1 1 3 5 1 30 7 109 1 1 3041 129 5 1 30 8 121 1 1 3042 150 5 1 30 9 26 2 1 3043 93 1 2 301 0 64 2 1 3044 1 1 3 1 2 301 1 80 2 1 3045 122 1 2 301 2 96 2 1 3046 129 1 2 301 3 1 1 2 2 1 3047 135 1 2 301 4 1 42 2 1 3048 1 39 1 2 301 5 42 3 1 3049 1 42 1 2 301 6 53 3 1 3050 145 1 2 301 7 60 3 1 3051 149 1 2 3018 65 3 1 3052 1 52 1 2 301 9 70 3 1 3053 1 55 1 2 3020 75 3 1 3054 157 1 2 3021 79 3 1 3055 160 1 2 3022 83 3 1 3056 165 1 2 3023 88 3 1 3057 170 1 2 3024 93 3 1 3058 218 1 2 3025 99 3 1 3059 67 2 2 3026 1 1 6 3 1 3060 96 2 2 3027 43 4 1 3061 1 1 1 2 2 3028 59 4 1 3062 1 18 2 2 3029 68 4 1 3063 1 25 2 2 3030 76 4 1 3064 131 2 2 3031 84 4 1 3065 1 37 2 2 3032 94 4 1 3066 141 2 2 3033 1 1 7 4 1 3067 145 2 2 3034 47 5 1 3068 150 2 2 0000 ZONAL Data 40 1 9582 79 40 2 9562 96 40 4 691 3 18 40 5 9279 97 0000 Parameters 501 1 .42 50121 .14 501 6 .42 501 71 .49 50201 .350 0000 C a l i b r a t ion Data 70 1 1 .7300 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 21 .7460 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 31 .7100 .0 0. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 41 .7510 .0 0. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 51 .6010 .0 0. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 60 .0 0 .0 0. 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0. 3069 1 54 2 2 3070 160 2 2 3071 165 2 2 3072 171 2 2 3073 180 2 2 3074 218 2 2 3075 84 3 2 3076 99 3 2 3077 109 3 2 3078 1 17 3 2 3079 122 3 2 3080 1 29 3 2 3081 136 3 2 3082 1 45 3 2 3083 227 3 2 3084 1 02 4 2 3085 131 4 2 3086 1 49 4 2 3087 169 4 2 3088 84 5 2 3089 1 20 5 2 3090 1 33 5 2 3091 1 42 5 2 3092 151 5 2 3093 1 57 5 2 3094 1 62 5 2 3095 1 67 5 2 3096 1 72 5 2 3097 1 78 5 2 3098 1 85 5 2 3099 1 93 5 2 31 0 244 5 2 40 3 8008 25 40 613081 68 5013 0.0 5018 0.0 0.0 135021.000127.2 0.0 116211.000126.8 0.0 120641.000 99.6 0.0 97321.000 99.3 0.0 117931.000133.7 0.0 00.0 0.0 Fi g u r e A3:25-6(cont) SUDBURY: Demand C a l i b r a t i o n Data 0000 Supply C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL" MODIFIED HOUSEHOLDS 10 1 1685 1 -6 8 1051 4627 7 1714 333 10 2 2848 1 806 1 64 1052 7441 7 4154 871 10 3 4646 1 2065 381 1053 8672 7 5775 1290 10 410305 1 9285 2708 1054 9746 7 6658 1585 10 5 1101 2 -20 16 105511355 7 9279 2558 10 6 2004 2 880 189 105618208 720287 8565 10 7 3093 2 1 933 346 1057 6132 8 2396 480 10 8 4424 2 3394 639 1058 9344 8 5576 1 1 93 10 9 5683 2 4678 973 105911526 8 8826 2014 1010 6435 2 5773 1 283 106013158 810608 2708 1011 7083 2 6764 1 599 106114234 812168 3161 1012 7591 2 7238 1 752 106215546 813135 3372 1013 8052 2 7195 1 741 106316879 814724 3985 1014 9296 2 9205 2481 106418667 817000 4654 101511859 213271 441 0 106524770 827391 9897 1016 4192 3 2103 408 1066 3125 9 -427 37 1017 6987 3 5234 1069 1067 6597 9 3097 606 1018 8376 3 6800 1 554 1068 7930 9 4634 971 1019 9944 3 9057 21 08 1069 8784 9 5623 1 240 102011633 311074 2644 1070 9517 9 6431 1 488 1 021131 1 4 313242 3437 107110126 9 6809 1619 1 02214894 315206 3958 107210585 9 7352 1800 102320161 323815 7989 107310910 9 7834 1 961 1024 1088 4 -687 17 107411206 9 7786 1 948 1025 2677 4 970 206 107511747 9 8418 21 97 1026 3876 4 1 430 255 1 076.1 2535 9 9398 2586 1027 5132 4 2741 498 107712968 911014 3238 1028 6167 4 3706 712 107813844 911049 3279 1029 '6955 4 4475 912 107915459 912153 3807 1030 7642 4 5630 1 246 108021193 922163 9845 1031 8332 4 6523 1517 1081 5734 10 1344 397 1032 8824 4 6726 1 584 1082 9130 10 4899 1141 1033 9670 4 791 1 1 983 1083 9975 10 5543 1 1 76 103410905 4 9438 2565 108410461 10 6395 1 440 103514206 415364 5534 108511009 10 7669 1970 1036 5411 5 2545 568 108611518 10 7677 1842 1037 7842 5 5347 1 160 108711984 10 8302 21 44 1038 9041 5 6934 1 596 108812532 10 9669 2554 103910461 5 8452 2005 108913050 10 9785 2408 104011987 510494 2501 109013651 1010821 2783 104113477 512488 3179 109114132 1010324 2663 104218075 519266 591 1 109214647 1011178 2650 1043 3205 6 -1 28 53 109315276 1013217 3467 1044 4427 . 6 857 183 109416049 1013767 3755 1045 5271 6 1 054 235 109516868 1013658 3960 1046 6412 6 1 962 409 109617577 1016139 4727 1047 7553 6 2703 573 109719286 1018245 5358 1048 8838 6 4116 849 109821642 1020462 6603 1 04910759 6 6507 1 584 109924360 1023950 7207 105015931 611843 3978 11 033654 104472120666 Fi g u r e A3:26-6 SUDBURY: Supply C a l i b r a t i o n Data 0000 Supply C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 Mean AFTER TAX INCOME by Household TYPE 20 1171.5330.8521.51231. 20 2186.1421.2604.3866.4 20 3443.5773.11084.1574. 20 4255.1509.6698.1982.9 20 5503.4756.61009.1433. 20 6348.5557.4805.91379 20 7433.1690.4897.51431 20 8610.21012.1315.1830 20 9591.5853.41034.1501 2010792.51075.1374.2102 0000 Demand PARAMETERS by TYPE 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 01 ) 21 1 o - .384- .187. 291 9. 0965. 171341. 1380.39171 . 51 .520 21 2 o - .495- .197. 2601 . 0573. 068959. 0770.06186. 1 1 .550 21 3 o - .292- .107. 2059. 2754- .01081 . 98234. 3443. 51 .554 21 4 0- .423- .100. 3119. 2714. 168067. 28110. 6255. 1 1 .580 21 5 0- .248- .084. 1 952. 3515- .01078. 30281 . 8503. 41 .573 21 6 o - .489- . 139. 3870. 1419. 254392. 31133. 4348. 51 .819 21 7 0- .452- .229. 2436- .019. 0329105 .2178. 5433. 1 1 .839 21 8 0- .336- .158. 2208. 1 353-.009107 .3301 . 5610. 21 .895 21 9 0- .354- .124. 2865. 1998. 0956108 .8285. 8591 . 51 .885 2110 o - .299- .163. 2203. 0870- .012121 .2414. 3792. 51 .921 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 02) 22 1 0- .295- . 131 . 1405. 1968- .19463. 05172. 8330. 81 .547 22 2 o - .263- . 101 . 1556. 3258- .10271 . 11229. 8421 . 21 .559 22 3 0- . 1 77-.084. 0689. 2640- .44489. 43471. 1773. 1 1 .538 22 4 o - .260- .120. 1620. 2502- .10983. 76279. 7509. 61 .577 22 5 0- . 1 97-.076. 0996. 41 94-.27795. 30449. 2756. 61 .574 22 6 o - .396- .135. 31 60. 1316. 0696119 .8249. 3557. 41 .847 22 7 0- .363- .082. 4278. 1417. 2639134 .4329. 4690. 41 .846 22 8 0- .243- . 1 46. 1 566. 1 204-.184127 .6568. 51012 • .914 22 9 0- .279- .127. 2069. 2084- .099121 .6456. 0853. 41 .953 2210 0- .247- . 1 26. 2024. 1896- .012133 .9601. 1 1 075 • .971 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 03) 23 1 0- .233- .091 . 1516. 3837- .14178. 30296. 0521 . 51 .555 23 2 o - . 1 96-.076. 1417. 3600- .15676. 86359. 5604. 31 .549 23 3 0- . 1 33-.044. 1 289. 51 24. 093793. 83695. 81 084 • .546 23 4 0- . 1 95-.077. 1373. 3992- .12787. 52415. 9698. 1 1 .560 23 5 o - .168- .088. 0670. 2591- .622106 .9621 . 61009 • .590 23 6 0- .323- .157. 2394. 0878- .006135 .0407. 7805. 91 .903 23 7 0- .293- .196. 1115- .076- .445140 .6470. 8897. 51 .855 23 8 o - .214- . 140. 0493- .040- .799148 .2767. 51315 • .893 23 9 o - .279- .159. 1 546. 0891- .201146 .0553. 51 034 • .964 231 0 0- .231- .113. 1745. 2533- .097162 .2782. 41 374 .945 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 04) 24 1 0- . 1 44-.100. 0754. 1976- .298111 .3781 . 81231 • .575 24 2 o - . 1 70-.067. 0859. 41 07-.25694. 59532. 5866. 41 .564 24 3 o - . 1 05-.046. 0476. 4675- .439104 .61043 .1574 • .584 24 4 o - . 1 73-.074. 0702. 3796- .406106 .8601 . 1982. 91 .600 24 5 o - .113- .050- .001 . 4301- .992103 .5940. 1 1 433 • .583 24 6 0- .234- .120. 1013. 261 7- .345173 .1780. 41 379 • .863 24 7 o - .224- .147. 0485- .016- .519168 .1822. 91 431 • .912 24 8 o - .209- .189. 0468- .224- .493189 .51083 . 1830 .960 24 9 o - .297- .194. 1585- .012- .155221 .1786. 91501 • .984 241 0 o - .183- .097. 1 041 . 2514- .168189 .81277 .2102 • .981 F i g u r e A3:26-6(cont) SUDBURY: Supply C a l i b r a t i o n Data 644 0000 Supply C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL i? DWELLINGS 30 1 54 1 1 3027 78 4 1 30 2 75 1 1 3028 103 4 1 30 3 89 1 1 3029 59 5 1 30 4 131 1 1 3030 92 5 1 30 5 46 2 1 3031 108 5 1 30 6 74 2 1 3032 1 36 5 1 30 7 90 2 1 3033 89 1 2 30 8 1 04 2 1 3034 105 1 2 30 9 1 42 2 1 3035 1 13 1 2 3010 38 3 1 3036 121 1 2 301 1 53 3 1 3037 124 1 2 301 2 61 3 1 3038 1 26 1 2 301 3 64 3 1 3039 1 28 1 2 301 4 67 3 1 3040 1 30 1 2 301 5 71 3 1 3041 1 32 1 2 301 6 75 3 1 3042 1 34 1 2 301 7 79 3 1 3043 1 37 1 2 3018 85 3 1 3044 1 55 1 2 301 9 93 3 1 3045 72 2 2 3020 1 06 3 1 3046 94 2 2 3021 1 43 3 1 3047 1 1 4 2 2 3022 35 4 1 3048 1 27 2 2 3023 51 4 1 3049 1 32 2 2 3024 58 4 1 3050 1 37 2 2 3025 64 4 1 3051 141 2 2 3026 70 4 1 3052 1 46 2 2 0000 ZONAL Data 40 1 9582 79 40 2 9562 96 40 4 691 3 18 40 5 9279 97 0000 Parameters 50 1 .3 50 2 .2 501 1 .42 501 21 . 14 501 6 .42 50171 .49 50201 .350 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n Data 70 1 1 .5690. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 21 .5440. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 31 .5790. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 41 .6320. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 51 .6650. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 61 .4430. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 71 .9580. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 81 .9220. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 91 .9200. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 701 01 .9650. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70111 .8720. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 701 21 .8750. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 3053 151 2 2 3054 155 2 2 3055 160 2 2 3056 166 2 2 3057 171 2 2 3058 186 2 2 3059 67 3 2 3060 78 3 2 3061 85 3 . 2 3062 87 3 2 3063 89 3 2 3064 91 3 2 3065 93 3 2 3066 95 3 2 3067 97 3 2 3068 98 3 2 3069 1 35 3 2 3070 1 66 3 2 3071 68 4 2 3072 88 4 2 3073 97 4 2 3074 1 03 4 2 3075 1 1 6 4 2 3076 1 24 5 2 40 3 8008 25 40 6 9081 68 501 3 45. 5018 77. 0.0 127131 .000 87. 0.0 115301 .000 87. 0.0 119540 .992 78. 0.0 95980 .943 79. 0.0 127631 .000 85. 0.0 125101 .000115. 0.0 132970 .948141. 0.0 116320.888147.9 0.0 121410.865126.3 0.0 97690.898124.9 0.0 114271.000163.7 0.0 122771.000163.4 F i g u r e A3:26-6(cont) SUDBURY: Supply C a l i b r a t i o n Data 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" MODIFIED HOUSEHOLDS and BASE Data 0 1 1685 1 -5 8 251 .311 44. 7 0 2 2848 1 806 1 64 131 .487 56. 4 0 3 4646 1 2065 381 161 .540 69. 8 0 410305 1 9285 2708 201 .580102. 7 0 5 1101 2 -19 1 6 121 .263 39. 3 0 6 2004 2 880 189 141 .470 57. 6 0 7 3093 2 1 933 346 271 .531 71 . 9 0 8 4424 2 3394 639 171 .555 74. 7 0 9 5683 2 4678 973 61 .583 72. 0 010 6435 2 5773 1283 9991 .716 63. 9 011 7083 2 6764 1599 9991 .716 63. 9 012 7591 2 7238 1752 9991 .716 65. 7 013 8052 2 7195 1741 9991 .716 68. 4 014 9296 2 9205 2481 191 .563 88. 6 01511859 213271 441 0 9991 .716 90. 5 016 4192 3 21 03 408 151 .544 66. 3 017 6987 3 5234 1069 9991 .716 76. 9 018 8376 3 6800 1554 9991 .716 76. 3 019 9944 3 9057 21 08 9991 .716 75. 0 02011633 311074 2644 9991 .716 77. 1 021131 1 4 313242 3437 71 .592 88. 7 02214894 315206 3958 9991 .716 82. 2 02320161 323815 7989 21 1 .490124. 9 024 1088 4 -686 1 7 1 1 .253 34. 2 025 2677 4 970 206 261 .520 63. 3 026 3876 4 1 430 255 181 .553 79. 6 027 5132 4 2741 498 301 .556 86. 6 028 6167 4 3706 712 9991 .716 72. 7 029 6955 4 4475 912 9991 .716 74. 4 030 7642 4 5630 1246 0 31 .581 86. 3 031 8332 4 6523 1517 9991 .716 73. 4 032 8824 4 6726 1584 281 .527 94. 2 033 9670 4 791 1 1983 9991 .716 81 . 6 03410905 4 9438 2565 81 .594101. 6 03514206 415364 5534 91 .562133. 7 036 5411 5 2545 568 21 .567 71 . 5 037 7842 5 5347 1 160 31 1 .512 96. 9 038 9041 5 6934 1 596 9991 .716 80. 7 03910461 5 8452 2005 9991 .716 87. 2 04011987 510494 2501 321 .492118. 8 04113477 512488 3179 41 .516117. 7 04218075 519266 591 1 9991 .716 92. 2 043 3205 6 -1 27 53 591 .728 77. 2 044 4427 6 857 183 61 1 .768101. 4 045 5271 6 1 054 235 621 .822108. 3 046 6412 6 1 962 409 9992 .101 97. 0 047 7553 6 2703 573 9992 .101105. 5 048 8838 6 4116 849 9992 .101113. 3 04910759 6 6507 1584 761 .840153. 2 05015931 611843 3978 491 .879170. 0 Fi g u r e A3:27-6 SUDBURY: MODIFIED P o l i c y Dataset 646 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" MODIFIED HOUSEHOLDS and BASE Data 1051 4627 7 1714 333 601 .817 96. 4 1052 7441 7 4154 871 9992 .101108. 2 1053 8672 7 5775 1290 9992 .101114. 9 1054 9746 7 6658 1585 9992 .101116. 7 105511355 7 9279 2558 9992 .101119. 7 105618208 720287 8565 441 .836189. 8 1057 6132 8 2396 480 721 .761101. 8 1058 9344 8 5576 1 1 93 731 .883123. 7 105911526 8 8826 201 4 9992 . 101108. 8 106013158 810608 2708 9992 .101114. 4 106114234 812168 3161 9992 .101119. 3 106215546 813135 3372 361 .860152. 0 106316879 814724 3985 401 .863163. 1 106418667 817000 4654 521 .858181. 2 106524770 827391 9897 581 .890233. 9 1066 3125 9 -426 37 71 1 .561 65. 2 1067 6597 9 3097 606 631 .822108. 8 1068 7930 9 4634 971 331 .907115. 6 1069 8784 9 5623 1 240 651 .912120. 5 1070 9517 9 6431 1 488 661 .919123. 1 107110126 9 6809 1619 461 .939123. 0 107210585 9 7352 1800 681 .936127. 8 107310910 9 7834 1961 9992 .101115. 0 107411206 9 7786 1 948 751 .869143. 6 107511747 9 8418 21 97 381 .849153. 4 107612535 9 9398 2586 41 1 .862162. 2 1 07712968 911014 3238 431 .864168. 5 107813844 911049 3279 531 .852183. 7 1 07915459 912153 3807 561 .874205. 2 1 08021193 922163 9845 9992 .101240. 4 1081 5734 10 1344 397 451 .782 84. 0 1082 9130 10 4899 1141 641 .919118. 6 1083 9975 10 5543 1 1 76 671 .922126. 4 108410461 10 6395 1 440 741 .902131. 8 108511009 10 7669 1 970 9992 .101114. 3 108611518 10 7677 1842 341 .920135. 5 108711984 10 8302 21 44 351 .886141. 7 108812532 10 9669 2554 471 .891143. 2 108913050 10 9785 2408 371 .852150. 9 109013651 1010821 2783 391 .852155. 9 109114132 1010324 2663 481 .871157. 2 109214647 1011178 2650 691 .849164. 4 109315276 1013217 3467 421 .869166. 1 109416049 1013767 3755 501 .875170. 9 109516868 1013658 3960 51 1 .876176. 2 109617577 1016139 4727 541 .836187. 5 109719286 1018245 5358 701 .829199. 1 109821642 1020462 6603 551 .885200. 0 109924360 1023950 7207 571 .876211. 4 11 033654 104472120666 9992 .101233. 0 Fig u r e A3:27-6 SUDBURY: MODIFIED P o l i c y Dataset 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 Mean AFTER TAX INCOME by 20 1171.5330.8521.51231. 20 2186.1421.2604.3866.4 20 3443.5773.11084.1574. 20 4255.1509.6698.1982.9 20 5503.4756.61009.1433. Household TYPE 20 6348.5557 20 7433 20 8610 20 9591 4805.91379 1690.4897.51431 21012.1315.1830 5853.41034.1501 2010792.51075.1374.2102 0000 Demand PARAMETERS by TYPE 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 01) 21 1 0- .384- .187. 2919. 0965. 171341. 1380.39171. 51 .520 21 2 o - .495- .197. 2601 . 0573. 068959. 0770.06186. 1 1 .550 21 3 o - .292- .107. 2059. 2754- .01081 . 98234. 3443. 51 .554 21 4 0- .423- .100. 31 19. 2714. 168067. 28110. 6255. 1 1 .580 21 5 o - .248- .084. 1 952. 351 5- .01078. 30281. 8503. 41 .573 21 6 o - .489- .139. 3870. 1419. 254392. 31133. 4348. 51 .819 21 7 0- .452- .229. 2436- .019. 0329105 .2178. 5433. 1 1 .839 21 8 o - .336- . 1 58. 2208. 1353- .009107 .3301. 561 0. 21 .895 21 9 0- .354- . 1 24. 2865. 1998. 0956108 .8285. 8591 . 51 .885 21 10 0- .299- . 1 63. 2203. 0870- .012121 .2414. 3792. 51 .921 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 02) 22 1 0- .295- .131. 1405. 1968- . 19463. 05172. 8330. 81 .547 22 2 o - .263- .101. 1 556. 3258- . 10271. 11229. 8421 . 21 .559 22 3 0- . 177-.084. 0689. 2640- .44489. 43471 . 1 773. 1 1 .538 22 4 o - .260- .120. 1 620. 2502- .10983. 76279. 7509. 61 .577 22 5 0- . 197-.076. 0996. 4194- .27795. 30449. 2756. 61 .574 22 6 o - .396- . 135. 31 60. 1316. 0696119 .8249. 3557. 41 .847 22 7 o - .363- .082. 4278. 1417. 2639134 .4329. 4690. 41 .846 22 8 0- .243- . 1 46. 1 566. 1204- .184127 .6568. 51012 .914 22 9 o - .279- .127. 2069. 2084- .099121 .6456. 0853. 41 .953 221 0 0- .247- .126. 2024. 1896- .012133 .9601. 1 1075 • .971 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 03) 23 1 0- .233- .091 . 1516. 3837- . 14178. 30296. 0521 . 51 .555 23 2 o - .196- .076. 1417. 3600- .15676. 86359. 5604. 31 .549 23 3 0- . 133-.044. 1 289. 51 24. 093793. 83695. 81 084 .546 23 4 o - . 195-.077. 1 373. 3992- . 12787. 52415. 9698. 1 1 .560 23 5 o - . 168-.088. 0670. 2591- .622106 .9621 . 61 009 • .590 23 6 0- .323- .157. 2394. 0878- .006135 .0407. 7805. 91 .903 23 7 0- .293- .196. 1115- .076- .445140 .6470. 8897. 51 .855 23 8 o - .214- . 1 40. 0493- .040- .799148 .2767. 51315 • .893 23 9 o - .279- . 1 59. 1 546. 0891- .201146 .0553. 51 034 • .964 2310 0- .231- .113. 1745. 2533- .097162 .2782. 41 374 • .945 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 04) 24 1 0- . 1 44-. 1 00. 0754. 1 976-.2981 1 1 .3781. 81 231 .575 24 2 o - .170- .067. 0859. 4107- .25694. 59532. 5866. 41 .564 24 3 0- .105- .046. 0476. 4675- .439104 .61043 .1574 • .584 24 4 o - . 1 73-.074. 0702. 3796- .406106 .8601. 1 982. 91 .600 24 5 o - .113- .050- .001 . 4301- .992103 .5940. 1 1 433 • .583 24 6 o - .234- .120. 1013. 261 7- .345173 .1780. 41 379 • .863 24 7 o - .224- .147. 0485- .016- .519168 .1822. 91 431 • .912 24 8 o - .209- .189. 0468- .224- .493189 .51083 . 1830 .960 24 9 o - .297- .194. 1585- .012- .155221 .1786. 91 501 • .984 2410 o - .183- .097. 1 041 . 2514- .168189 .81277 .21 02 • .981 F i g u r e A3:27-6(cont) SUDBURY: MODIFIED P o l i c y Dataset 648 i 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" DWELLINGS 30 1 54 1 1 3027 78 4 1 3053 151 2 2 30 2 75 1 1 3028 1 03 4 1 3054 155 2 2 30 3 89 1 1 3029 59 5 1 3055 160 2 2 30 4 131 1 1 3030 92 5 1 3056 166 2 2 30 5 46 2 1 3031 108 5 1 3057 171 2 2 30 6 74 2 1 3032 136 5 1 3058 186 2 2 30 7 90 2 1 3033 89 1 2 3059 67 3 2 30 8 104 2 1 3034 105 1 2 3060 78 3 2 30 9 1 42 2 1 3035 1 1 3 1 2 3061 85 3 2 3010 38 3 1 3036 121 1 2 3062 87 3 2 301 1 53 3 1 3037 1 24 1 2 3063 89 3 2 3012 61 3 1 3038 126 1 2 3064 91 3 2 301 3 64 3 1 3039 1 28 1 2 3065 93 3 2 3014 67 3 1 3040 1 30 1 2 3066 95 3 2 3015 71 3 1 3041 1 32 1 2 3067 97 3 2 3016 75 3 1 3042 1 34 1 2 3068 98 3 2 3017 79 3 1 3043 1 37 1 2 3069 135 3 2 3018 85 3 1 3044 1 55 1 2 3070 166 3 2 3019 93 3 1 3045 72 2 2 3071 68 4 2 3020 106 3 1 3046 94 2 2 3072 88 4 2 3021 1 43 3 1 3047 1 1 4 2 . 2 3073 97 4 2 3022 35 4 1 3048 1 27 2 2 3074 1 03 4 2 3023 51 4 1 3049 1 32 2 2 3075 1 1 6 4 2 3024 58 4 1 3050 1 37 2 2 3076 1 24 5 2 3025 64 4 1 3051 141 2 2 3026 70 4 1 3052 146 2 2 0000 ZONAL Data 40 1 9582 79 40 2 9562 96 40 3 8008 25 • 40 4 6913 18 40 5 9279 97 40 6 9081 68 0000 Parameters 50 10 .300 50 20 .200 50 30 .550 50 40 .400 50 71 .170 50 50 .425 50 60 .475 50 81 .031 501 10 .420 501 21 .140 501 3 45.0 50160 .420 501 71 .490 5018 77.0 50201.350 Figu r e A3:27-6(cont) SUDBURY: MODIFIED P o l i c y Dataset 649 VANCOUVER 650 Number of Zones: 05 D i s t r i b u t i o n of Census T r a c t s to Zones: Zone 1961 1971 1 19 28 2 35 37 3 5 9 4 48 80 5 13 18 A — 6 T o t a l 120 1 78 note: "A" i n d i c a t e s annexed t r a c t s . : annexed census t r a c t s i n c l u d e d i n Zone 5 S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : monthly rent value i n c o m e access 1961 1971 1961 1 971 1 961 1 971 1 100. 150. 21,067. 34,979. 3,633. 10,572. 26. 2 79. 114. 12,877. 25,267. 3,169. 8,221. 29. 3 151. 220. 25,195. 45,809. 5,130. 18,880. 42. 4 83. 136. 14,250. 27,829. 4,027. 10,241 . 82. 5 58. 118. 12,166. 26,786. 2,496. 9,410. 153. A 102. 25,424. 8,516. 220. •tal 85. 133. 15,339. 28,871 . 3,616. 9,931. 70. T o t a l D w e llings in Zones: 1 961 1 971 d w e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g s %CMA stock NEW %new %CMA new 1 40,598. 61,215. 17.7 21 ,074. 34.4 18. 1 2 75,156. 89,675. 26.0 18,658. 20.8 16. 0 3 8,857. 12,425. 3.6 3,577. 28.8 3. 1 4 83,703. 134,865. 39.0 54,762. 40.6 . 47. 0 5 20,076. 31,455. 9.1 12,285. 39. 1 10. 5 A 15,895. 4.6 6,188. 38.9 5. 3 to t 228,392. 345,530. 100.0 116,542. 33.7 100. 0 source: program "CZONE.FORT": f i l e s VAN61.INPUT and VAN71.INPUT. Fi g u r e A3:0l-7 VANCOUVER: Zonal C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (5 zones) 651 Figu r e A3:02-7 VANCOUVER: C l u s t e r i n g (5 zones) 652 Demographic C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s : P o p u l a t i o n [1] 1961: 790,165. [2] 1971:1,082,350. Households [1] 1961: 228,532. [2] 1971: 346,215. S o u r c e s : [ l ] S t a t i s t i c s Canada. CT 95-535 CT-20 :[2] S t a t i s t i c s Canada. CT 95-728 s e r i e s A Mean Household Incomes: 1971 Census [3] : 9,931. 1974 SHU data [4] : 10,879. d e f l a t o r : 0.8528 SHU d e f l a t e d : 10,191. Sources: [3] S t a t i s t i c s Canada. CT 95-731 s e r i e s B , v a r i a b l e 49 : [4] f i l e VAN.SHU SHU d a t a s e t : Sample s i z e : 2830. Sum of the WEIGHTS : 235,455. RATIO of SHU weights to a c t u a l households : 0.68008 "Model" Households: # SHU a c t u a l household mean # SHU "model" h'holds/ h'holds type income h'holds h'holds model /"model" 1 7,558. 12,482. 5. 2,496. 3,670. 2 12,692. 63,434. 27. 2,349. 3,454. 3 11,133. 13,852. 6. 2,309. 3,395. 4 13,640, 41,890. 18. 2,327. 3,422. 5 7,049. 23,404. 10. 2,340. 3,441. 6 7,457. 23,150. 10. 2,315. 3,404. 7 9,079. 35,257. 15. 2,350. 3,455. 8 3,976. 21,986. 9. 2,443. 3,592. source: program "HH1.FORT" : f i l e VAN.SHU F i g u r e A3:03-7 VANCOUVER: HOUSEHOLD C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . 653 T o t a l 1961 d w e l l i n g s : 228,392. Rental : 69,177. Owner-occupier : 159,215. S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : zone rent #rental value #o-o annual u n i t s u n i t s r e n t / v a l u e 1 95. 17,993. 20,008. 22,605. 0.0576 2 77. 28,238. 12,506. 46,918. 0.0744 3 142. 629. 25,062. 8,230. 0.0684 4 82. 18,385. 14,320. 65,318. 0.0696 5 58. 3,932. 11,993. 16,144. 0.0588 t o t a l 83. 69,177. 14,912. 159,215. 0.0672 source: program "D61.FORT" : dataset VAN61.INPUT. 1961 "Model" Dw e l l i n g s : d e r i v a t i o n : 1961 Dwellings : TOTAL : RATIO Of EXISTING unannexed/TOTAL : TOTAL 1961 Dwellings EXISTING i n 1971 : TOTAL 1961 Dwellings ADJUSTED f o r ANNEXED 1971 "model" Dwellings 1971 RATIO ACTUAL/"mode1" 1961 "model" Dwellings d i s t r i b u t i o n : zone 1 2 3 4 5 d w e l l i n g s 40,598. 75,156. 8,859. 83,703. 20,076. # "model" d w e l l i n g 12. 23. 3. 25. 6. a c t u a l / "model" 3383. 3268. 2953. 3348. 3346. 228,392. 96.0% 228,988. 238,502. 1 00. 3455. 69. 'RHS"/actual SERVICES c a l c u l a t e d weighted 0.8043 0.9952 0.9298 1.0609 1 .2022 0.7953 0.9841 0.9194 1 .0490 1 .1888 e r r o r of f i t 0.01791 source: program "D61.FORT" dataset VAN61.INPUT. F i g u r e A3:04-7 VANCOUVER: 1961 Dwelling C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . OWNER/OCCUPIER MODEL O.L.S. W.L.S. CONSTANT 6.6027 6.6700 (28.9) (37.9) MULTIPLE 0.6871 0.6275 (18.7) (18.3) CONSTRUCTED -.2931 -.4124 PRE 20 (6.79) (10.6) 20-45 -.1476 -.1540 (5.00) (6.77) CONDITION 0.2318 0.1438 (6.41) (4.85) LN ROOMS 1.1482 1.3975 (23.6) (34.4) LN INCOME 0.1158 0.0666 (4.20) (3.11) ACCESS -.0010 .0008 (5.18) (5.60) R2 0.50 0.99 OBSERVATIONS 1213 1213 note : " t " s t a t i s t i s i n brackets : data source: VAN61,EA MEANS: LN INCOME 8. 1423 MULTIPLE 0.2251 ACCESS 53.4 RENTAL MODEL O.L.S. W.L.S. 4.6985 4.1219 (15.6) (17.2) 0.2303 0.2620 (4.88) (8.47) -.4258 -.3471 (7.50) (9.49) -.1377 -.1608 (3.46) (4.97) 0.1758 0.2025 (3.67) (6.02) 0.7345 0.5513 (11.2) (11.9) 0.1388 0.2361 (3.83) (8.24) -.0029 -.0023 (11.0) (11.6) 0.35 0.99 1147 1147 F i g u r e A3:05-7 VANCOUVER: 1961 Hedonic Estimates 655 T o t a l 1971 d w e l l i n g s : 345,500 Rental Owner-occupier 142,260, 203,240, S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : zone 1 2 3 4 5 t o t a l rent 142. 115. 222. 131. 118. 129. #rental u n i t s value 38,375. 44,605. 1,955. 49,990. 7,335. 142,260. #o-o u n i t s 37,541. 24,081. 45,437. 27,519. 26,989. 22,835. 45,055. 10,485. 100,755. 24,110. annual r e n t / v a l u e 0.0465 0.0576 0588 0576 0, 0, 28,744. 203,240 0.0528 0.0540 source: program "D71.FORT" : dataset VAN71.INPUT. 1971 "Model" D w e l l i n g s : t o t a l number of "model" d w e l l i n g s : 100. d i s t r i b u t i o n : zone 1 2 3 4 5 d w e l l i n g s 61,210. 89,660. 12,440. 150,745. 31 ,445. # "model" a c t u a l / d w e l l i n g "model" e r r o r of f i t 0.01464 source: program "D71.FORT" 'RHS"/actual SERVICES c a l c u l a t e d weighted 18. 3401. 0.8778 0.8338 26. 3448. 1.1054 1.0499 4. 3110. 0.7061 0.6706 43. 3506. 1.0792 1.0250 9. 3494. 1.1085 1.0528 3455. dataset VAN71.INPUT, F i g u r e A3:06-7 VANCOUVER: 1971 Dwelling C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . ["GAMMA" C a l i b r a t i o n Set] 656 T o t a l 1971 d w e l l i n g s : 345,500. B u i l t p r i o r 1961 : 228,927. B u i l t 1961-1971 : 116,573. S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : zone rent #rental value #o-o annual u n i t s u n i t s r e n t / v a l u e 1 128. 19,595. 36,446. 20,539. 0.0420 2 109. 30,101 . 23,939. 40,897. 0.0552 3 180. 686. 43,295. 8,165. 0.0504 4 113. 22,030. 25,868. 67,746. 0.0528 5 96. 4,450. 23,966. 14,718. 0.0480 99 147. 65,397. 32,690. 51,175. 0.0540 CMA 129. 142,260. 28,829. 203,240. 0.0540 source: program "D71.FORT" : dataset VAN71.INPUT. 1971 "Model" D w e l l i n g s : t o t a l number of "model" d w e l l i n g s : 100. d i s t r i b u t i o n : # zone d w e l l i n g s 1 2 3 4 5 99 40,134, 70,998, 8,851, 89,776, 19,168, 116,573, # "model" d w e l l i n g 1 1 . 20. 3. 26. 6. 34. a c t u a l / "model" 3,649. 3,550. 2,950. 3,453. 3,195. 3,429. "RHS"/actual SERVICES c a l c u l a t e d weighted 0.9046 1.1216 0.7453 1 . 1 462 1 .2494 0.9481 0.8556 1 .0608 0.7049 1.0841 1.1817 0.8967 3,454. e r r o r of f i t 0.02320 source: program "D71.FORT" : dataset VAN71.INPUT. Fi g u r e A3:07-7 VANCOUVER: 1971 D w e l l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . ["BETA" C a l i b r a t i o n Set] OWNER/OCCUPIER MODEL RENTAL MODEL O.L.S. W.L.S. O.L.S. W.L.S. CONSTANT MULTIPLE CONSTRUCTION 51-60 46-50 20-45 PRE 20 FACILITIES LN INCOME LN ROOMS R2 OBSERVATIONS 8.6618 (51.9) 0. 1 128 (3.63) -.1854 (5.10) -.2579 (6.77) -.2836 (8.34) -.3499 (8.62) 0. 1100 (1.12) 0.0769 (5.42) 0.5186 (15.1) 0.31 1082 8.4802 (50.0) 0. 1549 (4.45) -.1886 (5.24) -.2222 (5.89) -.2846 (8.53) -.3923 (9.80) 0. 1287 ( 1 .24) 0.0968 (6.85) 0.5031 (13.5) 0.99 1 082 5.654 (43.0) -.0560 (1.70) -.1550 (5.81) -.1859 (4.76) -.2599 (8.79) -.3254 (8.50) 0.2403 (4.98) 0. 1447 (10.5) 0.2580 (10.4) 0.35 1 1 50 5.7846 (49.5) -.1019 (3.06) -.1161 (3.98) -.1727 (4.20) -.2463 (8.08) -.3119 (8.26) 0.2211 (4.82) 0.1 325 (10.7) 0.2738 (11.1) 0.98 1 150 WEIGHTED 20-45/PRE 20 3008 -.3126 -.2832 -.2696 note MEANS: " t " s t a t i s t i s i n br a c k e t s data source: VAN.SHU weighted c o e f f i c i e n t f o r 20-45 and pre 20 used as a c t u a l census data combines these v a r i a b l e s LN INCOME 9.0414 MULTIPLE 0.2080 ACCESS 65.0 Fi g u r e A3:08-7 VANCOUVER: 1971 Hedonic Estimates adjustment v a l u e s : 1971 Census 28,871 . 1 33. 9,931 . PRICE RENT INCOME R/V r a t i o : 0.0540 r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s and ALPHAs: O.L.S. MODEL 1974 SHU 62,843. 178. 11,644. d e f l a t o r 0.45941 0.74719 0.85288 P(j)/PN r a t i o : 1.03382 W.L.S. MODEL CONSTANT (TYPE 1) DUMMY (TYPE 2) DUMMY (TYPE 3) DUMMY (TYPE 4) DUMMY (TYPE 5) DUMMY (TYPE 6) DUMMY (TYPE 7) DUMMY (TYPE 8) R2 OBSERVATIONS c o e f f i c i e n t s ALPHAS [1] 2.9837 (83.7) -.3272 (8.05) -.3062 (6.19) -.4549 (10.5) 0.0909 (1.99) 0. 1221 (2.69) -.1428 (3.20) 0.5326 (10.8) 0.24 2658 0. 1976 0. 1425 0.1455 0.1254 0.2164 0.2233 0.1713 0.3366 coef f i c i e n t s 3.0581 (83.0) -.4533 (10.9) -.3968 (7.55) -.5489 (12.7) 0.0024 (0.05) 0.0282 (0.61) -.2075 (4.66) 0.4426 (9.18) 0.84 2658 ALPHAS [1] [2] 0.2129 0.2087 0.1353 0.1323 0.1431 0.1400 0.1230 0.1203 0.2134 0.2091 0.2190 0.2147 0.1730 0.1694 0.3314 0.3258 n o t e : [ l ] ALPHA values are c a l c u l a t e d as; ALPHA(1) = EXP(INTERCEPT) ALPHA(2)-(8) = EXP(INTERCEPT+COEFFICIENT) [2] ALPHA values a d j u s t e d as d e s c r i b e d i n S e c t i o n A1.32 [3] " t " values in bracket s F i g u r e A3:09-7 VANCOUVER: Household ALPHAS r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s and ALPHAs R log( ) = lo g ( a ) + l o g ( Y ( i ) ) . Y ( i ) O.L.S. MODEL c o e f f i c i e n t W.L.S. MODEL ALPHAS [1] c o e f f i c i e n t at mean lowest h i g h e s t [2] CONSTANT (TYPE 1) 10.153 (68.1) 9.8026 (68.2) 0. 1 964 0. 1477 0 .3488 DUMMY (TYPE 2) 0.0342 (1.12) -.0382 (1.21) 0. 1 271 0. 0779 0 .2666 DUMMY (TYPE 3) -.0511 (1.41) -.0873 (2.23) 0. 1 378 0. 1 039 0 .2283 DUMMY (TYPE 4) -.0371 (1.13) -.0927 (2.80) 0. 1 1 40 0. 0724 0 .2523 DUMMY (TYPE 5) -.0257 (0.77) -.0889 (2.51) 0. 1895 0. 1131 0 .3618 DUMMY (TYPE 6) 0. 1879 (0.57) -.0103 (3.58) 0. 1 963 0. 1 188 0 .4596 DUMMY (TYPE 7) -.0901 (2.78) -.1169 (3.58) 0. 1519 0. 091 1 0 .3981 DUMMY (TYPE 8) -.0349 (0.92) -. 1230 (3.30) 0. 2838 0. 1 767 0 .5968 LN INCOME -.8050 (48.8) -.7643 (47.7) R2 0.60 0.91 OBSERVATIONS 2658 2658 note: [1] ALPHA values are c a l c u l a t e d by the s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m program by s u b s t i t u t i n g the household's "model" incomes, a d e s c r i b e d i n S e c t i o n A1.32. These are unadjusted v a l u e s . [2] c a l c u l a t e d by s u b s t i t u t i n g TYPEs mean income. [3] " t " values i n b r a c k e t s . F i g u r e A3:09-7(b) VANCOUVER: Household ALPHAs [modified] 660 Operating and C a p i t a l Costs: Annual Operating Year Costs Annual C a p i t a l Costs D w e l l i n g S t a r t s Weight Weighted Operat ing Costs Weighted C a p i t a l Costs 1961 672.0 1017. 5,588 - - -1962 680.0 993. 7,387 0. 059 40. 1 58.6 1963 686.0 973. 8,941 0. 079 48.7 69. 1 1 964 699.0 997. 12,791 0. 101 70.6 100.7 1965 717.0 1086. 11,684 0. 093 66.7 101.0 1 966 738.0 1 259. 9, 1 38 0. 072 53. 1 90.6 1967 773.0 1 435. 13,896 0. 1 10 85.0 157.9 1968 818.0 1732. 15,690 0. 124 101.4 214.8 1969 860.0 2107. 17,690 0. 1 40 1 20.4 295.0 1970 917.0 2306. 13,437 0. 1 06 97.2 250.8 1971 975.0 2369. 15,533 0. 1 23 1 20.0 291 .4 "Model" C o s t s : Annual Annual T o t a l Operating C a p i t a l Annual Costs Costs Cost PO PC PN QM 1 961 6 7 2 . 0 1 0 1 7 . 0 1 6 8 9 . 0 0 . 3 9 8 0 . 6 0 2 1 . 0 0 0 decade weighted 8 0 3 . 0 1 6 3 0 . 0 2 4 3 3 . o 0 . 4 7 5 0 . 9 6 5 1 . 440 56 1 971 9 7 5 . 6 2 3 6 9 . 0 3 3 4 4 . 6 0 . 5 7 8 1 . 4 0 2 1 . 9 8 0 41 F i g u r e A3:10-7 VANCOUVER: P r i c e s , Costs and Q u a n t i t i e s [New C o n s t r u c t i o n ] 661 0000 GAMMA CALIBRATION 0000 INCOME by TYPE 0000 "MODEL" HOUSEHOLDS 20 1 7557 10 1 2160 1 105116235 4 20 212692 10 2 5105 1 105217806 4 20 311133 10 3 7231 1 105319231 4 20 413639 10 4 9248 1 105420964 4 20 5 7049 10 514070 1 105524401 4 20 6 7456 10 6 2523 2 105636658 4 20 7 9079 10 7 4178 2 1057 1721 5 20 8 3975 10 8 5606 2 1058 2670 5 10 9 6429 2 1059 3497 5 0000 ALPHA by TYPE 1010 7067 2 1060 4111 5 21 1.2129 1011 7822 2 1061 4563 5 21 2.1353 1012 8346 2 1062 5359 5 21 3.1431 1013 8752 2 1063 6702 5 21 4.1230 1014 9189 2 1064 8630 5 21 5.2134 1015 9671 2 106511663 5 21 6.2190 101610165 2 106621736 5 21 7.1730 101710377 2 1067 1166 6 21 8.3314 101810747 2 1068 2155 6 101911258 2 1069 3468 6 102011828 2 1070 4659 6 102112382 2 1071 6119 6 102212797 2 1072 7048 6 102313344 2 1073 7969 6 102413984 2 1074 9043 6 102515143 2 107511294 6 102616442 2 107622272 6 102717383 2 1077 1110 7 102817997 2 1078 2056 7 102919506 2 1079 3284 7 103021248 2 1080 4602 7 103124454 2 1081 5568 7 103236890 2 1082 6287 7 1033 3469 3 1083 7108 7 1034 6994 3 1084 7726 7 1035 9595 3 1085 8396 7 103612619 3 1086 9255 7 103714787 3 108710557 7 103819307 3 108812051 7 1039 2412 4 108913455 7 1040 4661 4 109016916 7 1041 6317 4 109127676 7 1042 7316 4 1092 786 8 1043 8261 4 1093 1554 8 1044 9087 4 1094 2000 8 104510121 4 1095 2220 8 104610732 4 1096 2838 8 104711617 4 1097 3756 8 104812589 4 1098 4675 8 104913766 4 1099 6376 8 105014994 4 11 011170 8 F i g u r e A3:11-7 VANCOUVER: "GAMMA" C a l i b r a t i o n Data 662 0000 GAMMA CALIBRATION 0000 "MODEL" Dwellings 30 1 44 32 1 3035 102 74 2 3069 97 70 4 30 2 62 45 1 3036 105 76 2 3070 99 72 4 30 3 71 52 1 3037 108 79 2 3071 101 73 4 30 4 78 57 1 3038 1 1 1 81 2 3072 103 75 4 30 5 83 60 1 3039 1 15 83 2 3073 1 04 76 4 30 6 87 64 1 3040 1 19 87 2 3074 1 06 77 4 30 7 91 66 1 3041 1 24 90 2 3075 108 78 4 30 8 94 68 1 3042 1 30 94 2 3076 109 79 4 30 9 97 71 1 3043 1 39 101 2 3077 1 1 1 81 4 301 0 101 73 1 3044 165 1 20 2 3078 1 13 82 4 301 1 1 04 76 1 3045 80 58 3 3079 1 15 83 4 3012 108 79 1 3046 108 79 3 3080 1 17 85 4 3013 1 13 82 1 3047 131 95 3 3081 1 20 87 4 3014 1 18 86 1 3048 171 1 24 3 3082 1 22 89 4 301 5 1 25 91 1 3049 27 20 4 3083 125 91 4 3016 1 35 99 1 3050 46 34 4 3084 128 93 4 3017 157 1 1 4 1 3051 52 38 4 3085 131 96 4 3018 199 145 1 3052 57 41 4 3086 1 35 98 4 3019 33 24 2 3053 61 45 4 3087 1 39 101 4 3020 49 36 2 3054 64 47 4 3088 1 44 105 4 3021 55 40 2 3055 67 49 4 3089 151 1 10 4 3022 60 44 2 3056 70 51 4 3090 1 65 120 4 3023 64 47 2 3057 73 53 4 3091 21 1 1 53 4 3024 67 49 2 3058 75 55 4 3092 38 28 5 3025 71 51 2 3059 78 56 4 3093 58 42 5 3026 74 54 2 3060 80 58 4 3094 69 50 5 3027 77 56 2 3061 82 60 4 3095 79 57 5 3028 80 58 2 3062 84 61 4 3096 88 64 5 3029 83 60 2 3063 86 62 4 3097 98 71 5 3030 86 63 2 3064 88 64 4 3098 109 80 5 3031 89 65 2 3065 90 65 4 3099 1 26 91 5 3032 92 67 2 3066 91 66 4 31 0 169 1 23 5 3033 95 69 2 3067 93 68 4 3034 99 72 2 3068 95 69 4 0000 ZONAL DATA 40 110572 26 40 2 8221 29 40 318880 42 40 410060 96 40 5 9410 153 40 6 9931 69 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n Data 70 11.4380.0320.2410.0410.1410.1060.0980.2020.139105701.000103.8 70 21.5460.0640.3480.0500.1150.1040.0690.1460.103 82201.000 92.0 70 31.2210.0580.5910.0320.1340.0860.0110.0500.039188761.000122.5 70 41.5050.0950.4910.0580.1150.0780.0310.0720.060100581.000100.3 70 51.5690.0880.4830.0480.1040.1260.0170.0560.078 94091.000 92.7 70 60.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 00.0 0.0 Figur e A3:11-7A VANCOUVER: "GAMMA" C a l i b r a t i o n Data 663 0000 BETA CALIBRATION 0000 INCOME by TYPE 0000 "MODEL" HOUSEHOLDS 20 1 7557 10 1 2160 1 105116235 4 20 212692 10 2 5105 1 105217806 4 20 311133 10 3 7231 1 105319231 4 20 413639 10 4 9248 1 105420964 4 20 5 7049 10 514070 1 105524401 4 20 6 7456 10 6 2523 2 105636658 4 20 7 9079 10 7 4178 2 1057 1721 5 20 8 3975 10 8 5606 2 1058 2670 5 10 9 6429 2 1059 3497 5 0000 ALPHA by TYPE 1010 7067 2 1060 4111 5 21 1.2129 1011 7822 2 1061 4563 5 21 2.1353 1012 8346 2 1062 5359 5 21 3.1431 1013 8752 2 1063 6702 5 21 4.1230 1014 9189 2 1064 8630 5 21 5.2134 1015 9671 2 106511663 5 21 6.2190 101610165 2 106621736 5 21 7.1730 101710377 2 1067 1166 6 21 8.3314 101810747 2 1068 2155 6 101911258 2 1069 3468 6 102011828 2 1070 4659 6 102112382 2 1071 6119 6 102212797 2 1072 7048 6 102313344 2 1073 7969 6 102413984 2 1074 9043 6 102515143 2 107511294 6 102616442 2 107622272 6 102717383 2 1077 1110 7 102817997 2 1078 2056 7 102919506 2 1079 3284 7 103021248 2 1080 4602 7 103124454 2 1081 5568 7 103236890 2 1082 6287 7 1033 3469 3 1083 7108 7 1034 6994 3 1084 7726 7 1035 9595 3 1085 8396 7 103612619 3 1086 9255 7 103714787 3 108710557 7 103819307 3 108812051 7 1039 2412 4 108913455 7 1040 4661 4 109016916 7 1041 6317 4 109127676 7 1042 7316 4 1092 786 8 1043 8261 4 1093 1554 8 1044 9087 4 1094 2000 8 104510121 4 1095 2220 8 104610732 4 1096 2838 8 104711617 4 1097 3756 8 104812589 4 1098 4675 8 104913766 4 1099 6376 8 105014994 4 11 011170 8 Fi g u r e A3:12-7 VANCOUVER: "BETA" C a l i b r a t i o n Data 664 0000 BETA CALIBRATION 0000 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 8 30 9 3010 301 1 3012 3013 301 4 301 5 301 6 301 7 3018 301 9 3020 3021 3022 3023 3024 3025 3026 3027 3028 3029 3030 3031 3032 3033 3034 'MODEL" 38 55 63 69 74 80 85 93 101 1 1 3 134 1 78 23 41 52 57 61 65 68 71 74 77 80 83 86 89 93 96 101 1 05 1 1 0 115 1 22 1 34 Dwellings 3035 3036 3037 3038 3039 3040 3041 3042 3043 3044 3045 3046 3047 3048 3049 3050 3051 3052 3053 3054 3055 3056 3057 3058 3059 3060 3061 3062 3063 3064 3065 3066 3067 3068 181 83 1 18 165 29 50 59 64 69 73 77 81 85 88 91 95 98 101 1 04 108 1 1 1 1 1 4 1 18 123 128 1 36 145 1 58 223 41 71 86 101 123 0000 ZONAL DATA 40 110572 26 40 2 8221 29 40 318880 42 40 410060 96 40 5 9410 153 40 6 9931 69 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n Data 70 11.4100.0360.2830.0390.1380 70 21.5460.0650.3620.0470.1130 70 31.3560.0580.6000.0310.1290 70 41.5880.0910.4940.0540.1160 70 51.6340.0860.4750.0470.1020, 70 61.4400.0800.4010.0570.1210 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 3069 196 1120.0820.1780.1321122 30.989102.4 1070.0630.1400.102 83470.945 89.0 0850.0120.0470.038192211.000104.9 0840.0280.0710.062100861.000 90.6 1330.0170.0580.082 91310.955 86.1 0840.0580.1170.083 97561.000123.0 Fi g u r e A3:12-7A VANCOUVER: "BETA" C a l i b r a t i o n Data 665 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" HOUSEHOLDS and BASE 0 1 2160 1 171 .230 52. 7 0 2 5105 1 491 .348 83. 9 0 3 7231 1 551 .359102. 9 0 4 9248 1 9991 .440115. 6 0 514070 1 381 .362153. 3 0 6 2523 2 161 .140 46. 8 0 7 4178 2 41 .249 60. 3 0 8 5606 2 221 .319 69. 9 0 9 6429 2 241 .327 75. 7 010 7067 2 361 .391 78. 2 011 7822 2 81 .331 85. 0 012 8346 2 51 1 .317 88. 8 013 8752 2 521 .315 91. 5 014 9189 2 9991 .440 90. 0 015 9671 2 9991 .440 92. 8 01610165 2 541 .340 99. 1 01710377 2 9991 .440 96. 8 01810747 2 9991 .440 98. 9 01911258 2 101 .358104. 7 02011828 2 9991 .440104. 7 02112382 2 9991 .440107. 7 02212797 2 371 .39611 1 . 502313344 2 9991 .440112. 6 02413984 2 9991 .440115. 8 02515143 2 1 1 1 .366124. 7 02616442 2 9991 .440127. 6 02717383 2 9991 .440132. 0 02817997 2 9991 .440134. 8 02919506 2 9991 .440141 . 4 03021248 2 9991 .440148. 9 03124454 2 691 .266172. 9 03236890 2 9991 .440207. 3 033 3469 3 181 .201 55. 3 034 6994 3 71 .361 78. 9 035 9595 3 9991 .440 92. 7 03612619 3 9991 .440109. 3 03714787 3 601 .338124. 7 03819307 3 9991 .440141 . 1 039 2412 4 151 .136 42. 6 040 4661 4 651 .218 61 . 0 041 6317 4 231 .283 71 . 2 042 7316 4 471 .312 76. 9 043 8261 4 9991 .440 79. 0 044 9087 4 281 .322 87. 3 04510121 4 9991 .440 89. 2 04610732 4 9991 .440 92. 4 04711617 4 31 1 .334100. 7 04812589 4 571 .310106. 6 04913766 4 9991 .440107. 3 05014994 4 9991 .440113. 0 DATA 05116235 4 9991 .440118. 5 05217806 4 9991 .440125. 3 05319231 4 9991 .440131. 2 05420964 4 621 .325143. 9 05524401 4 121 .295159. 5 05636658 4 999.1 .440193. 2 057 1721 5 41 1 .112 47. 6 058 2670 5 191 .223 58. 6 059 3497 5 21 1 .300 66. 5 060 4111 5 61 .320 72. 6 061 4563 5 661 .3.10 77. 7 062 5359 5 271 .329 84. 9 063 6702 5 531 .353 96. 1 064 8630 5 681 .336112. 6 06511663 5 61 1 .353134. 0 06621736 5 9991 .440188. 1 067 1166 6 401 .095 40. 0 068 2155 6 31 .220 54. 2 069 3468 6 51 .346 68. 1 070 4659 6 481 .350 81. 2 071 6119 6 91 .378 94. 5 072 7048 6 561 .339104. 6 073 7969 6 9991 .440108. 1 074 9043 6 591 .375119. 7 07511294 6 9991 .440133. 3 07622272 6 631 .360206. 8 077 1110 7 641 .099 32. 8 078 2056 7 21 .168 45. 9 079 3284 7 431 .220 59. 3 080 4602 7 451 .315 69. 7 081 5568 7 251 .319 78. 0 082 6287 7 261 .360 82. 6 083 7108 7 671 .304 90. 9 084 7726 7 291 .357 93. 6 085 8396 7 9991 .440 95. 4 086 9255 7 321 .334105. 2 08710557 7 331 .356112. 9 08812051 7 341 .340123. 0 08913455 7 9991 .440126. 6 09016916 7 9991 .440145. 2 09127676 7 9991 .440195. 1 092 786 8 141 .219 35. 2 093 1554 8 421 .187 54. 0 094 2000 8 201 .230 61. 4 095 2220 8 441 .262 64. 2 096 2838 8 461 .303 72. 9 097 3756 8 501 .312 85. 9 098 4675 8 301 .343 96. 5 099 6376 8 581 .371114. 8 10011170 8 351 .321164. 5 F i g u r e A3:13-7 VANCOUVER: P o l i c y Dataset 666 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" DWELLINGS 30 1 38 1 3035 181 2 30 2 55 1 3036 83 3 30 3 63 1 3037 1 18 3 30 4 69 1 3038 1 65 3 30 5 74 1 3039 29 4 30 6 80 1 3040 50 4 30 7 85 1 3041 59 4 30 8 93 1 3042 64 4 30 9 101 1 3043 69 4 3010 1 1 3 1 3044 73 4 301 1 134 1 3045 77 4 301 2 1 78 1 3046 81 4 301 3 23 2 3047 85 4 301 4 41 2 3048 88 4 301 5 52 2 3049 91 4 301 6 57 2 3050 95 4 301 7 61 2 3051 98 4 3018 65 2 3052 101 4 301 9 68 2 3053 1 04 4 3020 71 2 3054 108 4 3021 74 2 3055 1 1 1 4 3022 77 2 3056 1 14 4 3023 80 2 3057 1 18 4 3024 83 2 3058 1 23 4 3025 86 2 3059 1 28 4 3026 89 2 3060 1 36 4 3027 93 2 3061 1 45 4 3028 96 2 3062 1 58 4 3029 101 2 3063 223 4 3030 1 05 2 3064 41 5 3031 1 1 0 2 3065 71 5 3032 1 1 5 2 3066 86 5 3033 1 22 2 3067 101 5 3034 1 34 2 3068 1 23 5 0000 INCOME by TYPE 0000 ALPHA by 20 1 7557 21 1 . 21 29 20 212692 21 2. 1353 20 311133 21 3. 1 431 20 413639 21 4. 1 230 20 5 7049 21 5. 21 34 20 6 7456 21 6. 21 90 20 7 9079 21 7. 1 730 20 8 3975 21 8. 331 4 TYPE 3069 196 0000 ZONAL DATA 40 40 1 7858 2 5879 40 311149 40 40 4 7563 5 8300 40 615277 26 29 42 96 153 69 F i g u r e A3:13-7(cont) VANCOUVER: P o l i c y Dataset RENTAL MODEL OWNER-OCCUPIER MODEL CONSTANT 2.5335 1.4999 (21.9) (5.50) BATH 0.6068 na (3.41) TOILET -.4338 0.1913 (2.41 ) (0.98) SUBSIDIS -.2940 -.0251 (10.1) (0.50) LNLIVING 0.2176 0.1254 (7.21 ) (3.31) LNINCOM 0.1546 0.2032 (11.9) (9.62) TYPE -.1354 -.3077 (8.51) (9.34) LNDIST -.0062 -.0041 (0.86) (0.50) B51 60 -.0892 -. 1106 (4.19) (4.55) B4650 -.0986 -.0904 (3.33) (3.47) B21 45 -.0558 -.1183 (2.56) (5.51) BPRE20 -.1466 -. 1183 (4.90) (5.51) LGLVSIZE 0.1644 0.2455 (8.53) (8.53) LGBDSIZE 0.0640 0.0295 (13.2) (2.50) OPENSP 0.0310 0.0332 (1.65) (1.09) HIGHDEN 0.0301 -.1426 (1.78) (1.09) COMMERC -.0413 na (2.40) NEIGHBD 0.0589 na (2.78) FINANCE -.0382 -.0655 (2.37) (2.72) AMRATE na 0.0891 (16.9) R2 0.58 0.51 Observations 1 345 1 228 note: " t " s t a t i s t i c s i n brackets : data source: VAN.REG02 Fi g u r e A3:14-7 VANCOUVER: 1971 Hedonic Estimates f o r T r a n s l o g s 668 t r a n s l o g v a r i a b l e s ph*XH M ph*XH Ph pg M TYPE 1 mean 454.9 132.7 1 .532 1 .270 0.3533 min 88.3 34.4 1 .423 1 .270 0.0910 max 2038.9 470.7 1 .913 1 .270 0.9369 TYPE 2 mean 448.5 129.4 1 .563 1 .270 0.3568 min 63.3 39. 1 1 .423 1 .270 0.0690 max 2237.5 342.4 1 .890 1 .270 0.9773 TYPE 3 mean 844. 1 1 62. 1 1 .592 1 .270 0.2316 min 83. 1 38.3 1 .423 1 .270 0.0265 max 3241 .9 465.2 1 .938 1 .270 0.9823 TYPE 4 mean 587.3 170.8 1 .654 1 .270 0.3466 min 1 79.7 39.9 1 .423 1 .270 0.0596 max 3241 .6 408.9 1.913 1.270 0.9004 TYPE 5 mean 756.8 185.1 1 .665 1 .270 0.2768 min 141.8 46.9 1 .423 1 .270 0.0806 max 2231 .9 469.9 1 .957 1 .270 0.9372 TYPE 6 mean 837.4 329.6 2.305 1 .270 0.4544 min 238.0 65.2 1 .534 1.270 0.0701 max 3842.4 949.6 2.505 1 .270 0.9593 TYPE 7 mean 765.0 295.5 2.364 1 .270 0.4232 min 218.7 98.3 1 .564 1.270 0.1378 max 2090.4 834.4 2.565 1 .270 0.9299 TYPE 8 mean 1256.4 327.9 2.426 1 .270 0.2825 min 371 .8 78. 1 1 .573 1 .270 0.0605 max 3576.6 838.8 2.584 1 .270 0.7154 TYPE 9 mean 1055.1 354. 1 2. 1 56 1 .270 0.3.542 min 347.0 55. 1 1 .396 1 .27.0 0.0729 max 3500.6 999.0 2.284 1 .270 0.9135 TYPE 10 mean 1110.0 343.5 ' 2.475 1 .270 0.3280 min 267. 1 98.0 1 .593 1 .270 0.0926 max 3538.0 948.5 2.596 1 .270 0.8770 F i g u r e A3:15-7 VANCOUVER : T r a n s l o g Input V a r i a b l e s S t a t i s t i c s A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BMI * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.3050 -.1757 0.1980 0.0645 -.0152 86.6 253.7 454.9 259 (195.) (28.5) (51.9) (3.59) (2.60) 2 -.3041 -.1986 0.2220 -.0122 0.0376 82.8 251.2 448.5 438 (196.) (20.3) (60.5) (0.49) (7.78) 3 -.2040 -.1839 0.1512 -.1244 -.0447 101.2 537.0 844.1 384 (130.) (20.7) (33.8) (4.27) (6.12) 4 -.3020 -.1689 0.1854 0.1091 -.0303 102.8 328.0 587.3 139 (127.) (15.7) (33.0) (3.81) (3.34) 5 -.2518 -.1370 0.1747 0.2238 -.0325 110.6 450.1 756.8 125 (120.) (12.3) (30.8) (7.74) (3.87) 6 -.4068 -.2117 0.2368 -.0042 0.0554 142.4 399.8 837.4 243 (159.) (18.2) (37.4) (0.15) (6.16) 7 -.3948 -.2344 0.2456 -.0209 0.0425 124.7 369.7 765.0 130 (153.) (16.1) (26.7) (0.60) (3.17) 8 -.2635 -.1430 0.1380 0.1422 -.1672 135.1 731.1 1256.4 281 (221.) (23.2) (25.1) (7.19) (13.5) 9 -.3439 -.1980 0.2062 0.0110 -.0023 164.6 552.0 1055.1 217 (199.) (24.0) (31.1) (0.46) (0.21) 10 -.3146 -.1896 0.1890 0.0508 -.0483 138.6 603.6 1110.0 357 (343.) (33.2) (44.6) (3.24) (6.64) note: [1] " t " values i n brackets [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:16-7 VANCOUVER : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x penditure Share [ a l l income l e v e l s ] A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = 670 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 1 -.4069 (198. ) 2 -.4285 (225. ) 3 -.2703 (150.) 4 -.4105 (140. ) 5 -.3109 (125.) 6 -.5261 (193. ) 7 -.4583 (133.) 8 -.3112 (189.) 9 -.3712 (170.) 10 -.3646 (256. ) -1. + BM1 B11 B12 .1563 0.2545 14.3) (27.4) .2223 0.3015 14.1) (43.7) .2193 0.2250 14.7) (27.8) .2447 0.3181 11.8) (20.1) .2198 0.3009 7.95) (16.1) .1633 0.1546 14.7) (12.0) BM1 BM2 0.1451 0.0647 (4.74) (4.59) -.0035 0.1380 (0.10) (15.2) -.0825 0.0457 (1.93) (3.42) -.0513 0.1636 (1.26) (7.91) -.0156 0.1173 (0.32) (4.50) 0.1048 -.1589 (3.50) (5.95) MQH MQX 72.7 130.7 76.1 131.2 94.3 335.5 95.9 180.5 99.8 288.3. 131.1 218.2 107.4 242.3 120.6 511.0 139.4 409.4 125.8 431.7 ME # 277.3 153 285.7 231 574.4 217 385.4 76 530.9 68 580.5 153 558.2 78 940.3 161 817.4 130 857.1 203 .1658 0.2782 12.8) (18.0) .2030 0.2363 19.9) (23.6) 0.0872 0.1008 (2.49) (4.09) 0.0338 0.0149 (1.35) (0.93) .1562 0.2639 12.5) (21.9) .1101 0.2248 7.70) (19.3) 0.1493 0.0792 (5.00) (4.17) 0.3347 0.0269 (8.77.) (1.80) note: [1] " t " values i n bracke t s [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:17-7 VANCOUVER : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x penditure Share [below mean income] 671 A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.2356 -.1321 0.1635 0.1867 -.0451 106.7 431.3 711.2 106 (176.) (19.8) (19.7) (6.97) (1.57) 2 -.2233 -.1334 0.0970 0.1255 -.3342 90.3 385.1 630.1 207 (220.) (21.9) (12.3) (5.25) (11.1) 3 -.1577 0.0561 0.1521 0.6029 0.9694 110.2 798.9 1194.5 167 (60.8) (6.68) (61.4) (14.2) (788.) 4 -.2268 -.1305 0.0999 0.1680 -.2895 111.0 505.8 830.9 63 (107.) (9.92) (8.02) (3.34) (5.60) 5 -.2082 -.1410 0.1175 0.1470 -.1495 123.4 643.2 1026.2 57 (98.4) (6.88) (5.90) (1.53) (1.50) 6 -.2970 -.1613 0.1598 0.1022 -.1095 161.5 708.7 1274.1 90 (95.3) (12.1) (10.4) (2.22) (2.78) 7 -.3364 -.1579 0.1699 0.1836 -.1419 150.5 560.8 1075.1 52 (118.) (9.34) (6.43) (3.70) (2.21) 8 -.2240 -.0989 0.1171 0.3104 -.1996 154.51026.4 1680.5 120 (142.) (10.1) (9.23) (7.69) (4.18) 9 -.3128 -.1627 0.1377 0.0960 -.2053 202.3 765.1 1410.3 87 (150.) (8.75) (9.92) (1.77) (5.32) 10 -.2706 -.1468 0.1284 0.1659 -.2215 155.3 830.1 1443.4 154 (612.) (42.4) (23.3) (13.8) (12.5) note: [1] " t " val u e s i n brackets [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:18-7 VANCOUVER : D i r e c t T ranslog-Expenditure Share [above mean income] 672 A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B1 1 B1 2 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.5082 (207. ) -.1933 (14.2) 0.3239 (20.4) 0.0561 (1.76) 0.1634 (7.12) 65. 3 77. 3 198 .3 78 2 -.5744 (204.) -.2315 (11.9) 0.3552 (28.5) -.0207 (0.53) 0.2229 (13.7) 70. 1 65. 9 1 94 .0 110 3 -.3386 (122. ) -.1756 (6.74) 0.2897 (16.8) 0.0271 (0.40) 0.1344 (4.94) 89. 4 226. 6 427 .0 108 4 -.4893 (133. ) -.1254 (8.64) 0.3258 (17.5) 0.2126 (5.88) 0.1708 (7.05) 90. 5 119. 7 297 .2 41 5 -.3790 (135.) -. 1337 (9.87) 0.2729 (22.5) 0.2738 (8.65) 0.0888 (5.94) 95. 9 203. 8 417 .6 31 6 -.5897 (122. ) -. 1 724 (4.15) 0.3858 (11.3) 0.0640 (0.85) 0.2556 (5.75) 117. 4 147. 9 457 .2 71 7 -.5574 (117.) -.2369 (4.28) 0.3527 (11.2) -.0788 (0.80) 0.1956 (4.55) 99. 8 1 50. 0 422 .8 34 8 -.3635 (138. ) -.1922 (8.60) 0. 1825 (6.50) 0.0692 (1.26) -.1219 (2.13) 113. 6 380. 6 758 .5 73 9 -.4251 (140.) -.1653 (7.56) 0.3425 (12.4) 0.0851 (1.57) 0.1932 (4.41 ) 1 29. 1 305. 6 663 .8 57 10 -.3929 (153.) -.1727 (8.89) 0.2728 (15.3) 0.0669 (1.75) 0.0602 (2.15) 110. 5 331 . 0 688 .7 87 note: [1] " t " values i n bracke t s [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:19-7 VANCOUVER : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [ q u a r t i l e 01] A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 • BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.3402 -.1139 0.2057 0.2636 -.0663 80.4 186.3 359.5 75 (195.) (8.24) (7.65) (5.37) (1.06) 2 -.3425 -.2149 0.1100 -.0728 -.3401 81.5 190.6 369.1 121 (221.) (12.7) (4.00) (1.57) (5.08) 3 -.2171 -.0721 0.1988 0.4723 0.0750 99.1 443.4 720.5 109 (187.) (4.15) (12.0) (7.66) (1.34) 4 -.3443 -.0912 0.3300 0.2897 0.1877 102.3 251.7 488.7 35 (95.7) (3.47) (11.0) (4.15) (3.55) 5 -.2695 -.1295 0.1355 0.1449 -.3409 103.0 359.1 625.9 37 (87.4) (3.11) (1.37) (0.91) (1.08) 6 -.4871 -.1467 0.4115 0.1129 0.2797 142.9 279.0 687.3 82 (174.) (4.06) (13.5) (1.48) (6.57) 7 -.4031 -.2168 0.2922 -.0978 0.0068 113.4 313.7 662.9 44 (95.8) (3.68) (3.67) (0.71) (0.04) 8 -.2812 -.1500 0.1442 0.0792 -.2269 126.4 619.2 1091.1 88 (134.) (5.96) (3.04) (0.89) (1.71) 9 -.3379 -.1340 0.2846 0.1500 0.0855 147.3 490.4 937.3 73 (127.) (6.98) (7.14) (2.75) (1.39) 10 -.3472 -.1555 0.2885 0.1708 0.1288 137.3 507.3 983.4 116 (205.) (6.60) (5.66) (2.25) (0.92) note: [1] " t " val u e s i n bracke t s [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:20-7 VANCOUVER : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [ q u a r t i l e 02] SHARE = A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.2744 -.1164 0.2307 0.2478 0.1167 98.9 318.9 555.5 67 (185.) (11.4) (11.4) (6.55) (1.90) 2 -.2534 -.1369 0.1076 0.1107 -.4050 85.1 307.1- 523.2 133 (201.) (12.8) (4.46) (2.86) (5.18) 3 -.1656 -.0920 0.0761 0.2552 -.4452 102.4 656.7 999.6 110 (141.) (6.20) (2.28) (3.23) (2.59) 4 -.2663 -.1182 0.1407 0.2364 -.2131 109.1 398.2 691.0 44 (107.) (4.84) (3.09) (2.72) (1.38) 5 -.2339 -.0800 0.2340 0.5284 0.4395 121.4 531.2 879.1 36 (81.5) (2.24) (4.27) (3.55) (2.06) 6 -.3169 -.1431 0.2223 -.0168 -.1579 142.1 542.6 1009.5 60 (85.2) (5.38) (4.75) (0.18) (1.43) 7 -.3495 -.1410 0.2842 0.1973 0.0370 129.3 450.7 881.3 32 (71.0) (3.18) (3.35) (1.37) (0.19) 8 -.2398 -.0863 0.1895 0.3776 0.0128 139.9 840.0 1405.9 75 (115.) (4.53) (4.16) (4.78) (0.09) 9 -.3381 -.3006 -.0144 -.3528 -.7105 179.0 608.6 1162.6 57 (179.) (15.0) (0.41) (5.91) (8.98) 10 -.2786 -.1432 0.1537 0.1984 -.1685 139.6 713.6 1255.0 99 (484.) (17.9) (8.63) (6.69) (2.89) note: [1] " t " val u e s i n bracke t s [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:2l-7 VANCOUVER : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [ q u a r t i l e 03] A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = • -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.1866 -.0729 0.0887 0.4145 -.3473 120.2 624.3 978.8 39 (103.) (5.68) (5.43) (7.95) (5.42) 2 -.1894 -.1202 0.0874 0.1517 -.3289 99.5 525.4 822.2 74 (140.) (12.2) (8.33) (3.45) (6.61) 3 -.1322 -.0795 0.0394 0.2580 -.5449 125.31073.5 1570.8 57 (96.3) (9.25) (3.31) (4.56) (6.82) 4 -.1677 -.1101 0.0577 0.2374 -.4817 115.4 755.1 1154.8 19 (53.8) (4.72) (3.19) (2.27) (4.31) 5 -.1700 -.1164 0.0485 0.1375 -.5397 126.8 835.2 1278.4 21 (50.9) (2.66) (1.09) (0.54) (2.03) 6 -.2714 -.1653 0.1511 0.1097 -.1399 200.31040.7 1803.4 30 (295.) (30.9) (24.5) (5.50) (7.58) 7 -.3251 -.1276 0.2229 0.2386 -.0095 184.4 736.9 1385.1 20 (144.) (8.33) (7.33) (5.32) (0.10) 8 -.2059 -.0942 0.1113 0.3190 -.2071 178.81337.1 2138.3 45 (82.1) (7.50) (3.90) (4.93) (1.71) 9 -.2817 -.1319 0.1168 0.1447 -.2997 246.61062.4 1881.0 30 (69.0) (4.07) (4.36) (1.34) (3.85) 10 -.2595 -.1193 0.1462 0.2509 -.1294 183.71040.0 1782.7 55 (477.) (28.9) (25.8) (16.3) (7.74) note: [1] " t " values i n bracke t s [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:22-7 VANCOUVER : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [ q u a r t i l e 04] 676 income e l a s t i c i t y mean below above TYPE 1 Q01 0. 7342 0 .7354 0.7455 Q02 0. 5971 0 .6111 0.6110 Q03 0. 4736 0 .5115 0.5212 Q04 0. 4179 0 .4332 0.4415 TYPE 2 Q01 0. 7780 0 .7826 0.7906 Q02 0. 5698 0 .5191 0.5143 Q03 0. 4969 0 .4339 0.4359 Q04 0. 391 7 0 .3642 0.3544 TYPE 3 Q01 0. 5344 0 .5258 0.5245 Q02 0. 4640 0 .5448 0.5406 Q03 0. 3709 0 .3422 0.3407 Q04 0. 3270 0 .2853 0.2723 TYPE 4 Q01 0. 7557 0 .7626 0.7875 Q02 0. 5888 0 .6095 0.6067 Q03 0. 5048 0 .4990 0.4985 Q04 0. 401 5 0 .3636 0.3482 TYPE 5 Q01 0. 6693 0 .6907 0.7097 Q02 0. 4932 0 .4527 0.4717 Q03 0. 4479 0 .641 1 0.7043 Q04 0. 3936 0 .3275 0.3283 TYPE 6 Q01 0. 8036 0 .8074 0.8150 Q02 0. 7074 0 .7100 0.7117 Q03 0. 5365 0 .4442 0.4574 Q04 0. 4873 0 .4869 0.4867 TYPE 7 Q01 0. 7400 0 .7355 0.7315 Q02 0. 5897 0 .5559 0.5662 Q03 0. 6066 0 .6063 0.6060 Q04 0. 5629 0 .5824 0.6003 TYPE 8 Q01 0. 5983 0 .5953 0.5917 Q02 0. 481 5 0 .4649 0.4640 Q03 0. 4754 0 .5109 0.5261 Q04 0. 4116 0 .4339 0.4399 TYPE 9 Q01 0. 641 5 0 .641 6 0.6418 Q02 0. 5564 0 .5512 0.5509 Q03 0. 5073 0 .4700 0.4675 Q04 0. 5309 0 .4838 0.4742 TYPE 10 Q01 0. 6083 0 .6043 0.6014 Q02 0. 591 2 0 .5983 0.6064 Q03 0. 5198 0 .521 6 0.5218 Q04 0. 4794 0 .4971 0.5084 p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y mean below above 1 .0193 - 1.4626 -0. 6918 1 .0276 - 1.2064 -0. 8984 1 .021 4 - 1 .2127 -0. 8618 0 .9948 — 1.2984 -0. 6964 1 .0052 - 1.9487 -0. 6438 1 .0395 - 1.3097 -0. 8772 1 .0489 - 1.1675 -0. 9081 1 .0021 — 1.2741 -0. 5804 1 .0769 - 1.8791 -0. 8284 1 .001 3 - 1 . 1202 -0. 9070 1 .0164 - 1.1491 -0. 9119 0 .9964 — 1.2453 -0. 6674 1 .0168 - 1.4490 -0. 7699 1 .0757 - 1.2275 -0. 9504 1 .0129 - 1.1496 -0. 8815 0 .9828 — 1.2997 -0. 4680 0 .9937 - 1.4271 -0. 8063 1 .0638 - 1.1457 -1 . 0078 0 .9455 - 1.0665 -0. 8455 0 .9992 — 1.2163 -0. 7536 1 .01 64 - 1.5132 -0. 7406 1 .0800 - 1.2889 - o . 91 26 1 . 1784 - 1.3690 -1 . 0180 0 .9945 — 1.3483 - o . 5689 1 .0567 - 1.8662 - o . 7131 1 . 1 337 - 1.2829 -1. 0155 1 .0644 - 1.2403 - o . 8929 1 .0237 — 1.3240 - o . 7360 1 .0090 - 1.5033 - o . 8121 1 .0438 - 1.1707 - o . 9259 1 .0081 - 1.1291 - o . 8880 0 .9928 — 1.2159 - o . 7276 1 .0680 - 1.5230 - o . 8746 1 .0843 - 1.1908 - o . 9855 1 .0542 - 1.1805 - o . 9425 1 .0366 — 1.2919 - o . 7255 1 .0598 - 1.5974 - o . 8558 1 .031 3 - 1.1894 - o . 91 23 1 .0018 - 1.0993 - o . 9033 0 .9957 - 1.2121 - o . 721 5 F i g u r e A3:23-7 VANCOUVER Income and P r i c e E l a s t i c i t i e s 677 TYPE 1 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c TYPE 2 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c TYPE 3 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c TYPE 4 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c TYPE 5 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c TYPE 6 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c TYPE 7 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c TYPE 8 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c TYPE 9 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c TYPE 1 0 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c ALL 617.03 605.92 22.20 917.51 884.34 66.35 812.03 796.30 31 .45 317.36 303.07 28.58 305.33 282.50 45.65 472.04 449.97 44. 1 4 291.92 286.33 11.17 735.88 640.06 191.64 509.87 509.63 0.47 974.86 943.42 62.87 BELOW 366.50 353.27 26.45 525.04 418.23 213.63 494. 16 465.32 57.68 186.21 1 72.28 27.85 1 79.73 150. 18 59. 1 0 327.43 274.30 1 06.25 1 78.83 163.95 29.76 418.99 383.57 70.84 310.76 301.67 18.20 529.27 528.24 2.06 ABOVE 314.68 269.01 91 .33 615.62 526.40 178.43 284.38 448.61 -328.46 1 81 .53 1 47.77 67.54 1 61.40 142.07 38.67 202.05 188. 18 27.72 1 32.89 1 25.58 14.62 334.74 288.81 91 .85 237.97 211.63 52.67 606.47 472.46 268.03 Q01 207.43 180.93 53.01 258.65 179.53 158.26 239.61 205.80 67.63 1 04.79 91 .84 25.89 89.75 66.71 46.08 1 45.92 117.17 57.49 81 .93 67.07 29.71 1 90.44 182.96 14.96 145.32 128.06 34.52 218.86 216.15 5.41 Q02 222.21 189.92 64.58 340. 1 4 327.34 25.60 343.49 297.92 91.14 91 .67 84. 1 3 15.08 100.20 91.10 18.20 199.46 165.23 68.46 1 06. 1 1 103.57 5.08 233.46 216.96 32.99 183. 1 9 179. 12 8.14 327.86 324.05 7.62 Q03 208.48 173.98 68.98 390.05 345. 16 89.78 346.76 328.53 36.47 1 25.21 107.07 36.28 1 06.38 94.06 24.63 1 36.06 1 32.05 8.02 77. 17 75.82 2.69 207.31 189.39 35.83 1 72. 1 7 1 62.26 19.81 393.80 339. 1 5 109.30 Q04 127.35 103.86 46.98 233.93 204.92 58.03 188.78 144.89 87.78 61 .05 52.05 18.01 64.25 59.49 9.51 1 23.05 . 87.99 70. 12 69.43 58.53 21 .80 129. 17 1 10.58 37. 19 81.61 65.75 31 .72 235. 14 154.49 161.30 F i g u r e A3:24-7 VANCOUVER : Log L i k e l i h o o d Values: [ t e s t of u n i t y income e l a s t i c i t y ] 0000 Demand C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL" MODIFIED HOUSEHOLDS 10 1 1125 1 -605 0 105113757 6 7794 1938 10 2 2037 1 301 61 105221942 619036 6719 10 3 2332 1 226 96 1053 3618 7 564 124 10 4 2924 1 760 184 1054 5844 7 251 1 478 10 5 3831 1 1324 251 1055 6985 7 4079 858 10 6 4671 1 21 76 448 1056 7871 7 4510 954 10 7 6207 1 4232 867 1057 8541 7 6443 1 528 10 810322 1 901 3 2424 1058 9533 7 6437 1535 10 9 893 2 -169 0 105910754 7 7273 1804 1010 1476 2 396 45 106013527 7 9491 2659 1011 1901 2 657 1 53 106118965 718523 7408 1012 2538 2 1 451 295 1062 5834 8 1991 433 1013 3252 2 21 40 367 1063 8699 8 4726 973 1014 3870 2 2877 529 106410234 8 591 1 1259 1015 4406 2 3539 684 106511070 8 7603 1785 1016 4895 2 41 62 832 106611925 8 8098 1739 1017 5335 2 4547 940 106712847 8 9630 231 9 1018 5789 2 5026 1 073 106814007 810674 2479 1019 6124 2 5590 1 229 106914785 811492 2839 1020 6725 2 6142 1 409 107015517 812949 3302 1021 7592 2 7246 1 762 107116766 814094 3601 1022 8607 2 8507 2214 107218172 814913 3805 102312459 21 5288 5708 107320084 818151 5571 1024 2683 3 498 1 72 107421776 - 818521 5336 1025 4889 3 2994 568 107528526 83131911673 1026 6169 3 4421 870 1076 6127 9 2181 494 1027 6954 3 5266 1 070 1077 8782 9 4554 970 1028 8010 3 6413 1 256 1078 9999 9 6066 1 391 1029 9081 3 7920 1 742 107910954 9 6763 1614 103010285 3 9422 2080 108011925 9 8310 21 57 103111450 310860 2559 108112807 9 8722 2320 103212815 312808 3253 108213820 9. 9613 2751 103314715 315625 4496 108315775 912621 4074 103420179 325476 961 5 108422339 92283310174 1035 2359 4 721 186 1085 5802 10 1605 422 1036 4844 4 3058 561 1086 8161 10 3866 777 1037 6881 4 4677 976 1087 9018 10 4922 996 1 03810620 410187 3286 1088 9868 10 5207 1 1 63 1039 4907 5 21 42 451 108910635 10 6123 1386 1040 7649 5 5141 1065 109011094 10 6546 1462 104112972 511680 3183 109111595 10 6189 1414 1042 3397 6 -717 0 109211991 10 7011 1629 1043 4519 6 -293 26 109312845 10 8568 1 978 1044 5437 6 799 216 109413475 10 8787 2159 1045 6403 6 612 182 109514461 1010196 2462 1046 6883 6 1410 287 109615517 1011323 2707 1047 7565 6 2053 397 109716450 1011777 291 1 1048 8335 6 2240 492 109817566 1013016 3396 104910142 6 4482 959 109919416 1016523 4894 105012116 6 7400 1860 11 025366 1024824 9582 Fi g u r e A3:25-7 VANCOUVER: Demand C a l i b r a t i o n Data 0000 Demand C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 Mean AFTER TAX INCOME by 20 1198.3359.5555.5978.8 20 2194.0369.1523.2822.2 20 3427.0720.5999.61571. 20 4297.2488.7691.01155. 20 5417.6625.9879.11278. Household TYPE 20 6457.2687.31010.1803 20 7422.8662.9881.31385 20 8758.51091.1406.2138 20 9663.8937.31163.1881 2010688.7983.41255.1783 0000 Demand PARAMETERS by TYPE 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 01 ) 21 1 0- .508- .193. 3239. 0561 . 163465. 3277.29198. 31 .533 21 2 o - .574- .232. 3552- .021 . 222970. 1165.93194. 01 .572 2.1 3 0- .339- .176. 2897. 0271 . 134489. 41226. 6427. 01 .559 21 4 o - .489- . 1 25. 3258. 21 26. 170890. 50119. 7297. 21 .609 21 5 0- .379- . 1 34. 2729. 2738. 088895. 92203. 8417. 61 .642 21 6 o - .590- . 1 72. 3858. 0640. 2556117 .4147. 9457. 22 .279 21 7 o - .557- .237. 3527- .079. 195699. 80150. 0422. 82 .337 21 8 o - .364- .192. 1825. 0692- .122113 .6380. 6758. 52 .421 21 9 0- .425- . 1 65. 3425. 0851 . 1932129 .1305. 6663. 82 .136 2110 o - .393- . 1 73. 2728. 0669. 06021 1 0 .5331 . 0688. 72 .439 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 02) 22 1 o - .340- .114. 2057. 2636- .06680. 40186. 3359. 51 .534 22 2 0- .343- .215. 1 100-.073- .34081 . 50190. 6369. 1 1 .561 22 3 0- .217- .072. 1988. 4723. 075099. 15443. 4720. 51 .576 22 4 o - .344- .091 . 3300. 2897. 1877102 .3251 . 7488. 71 .640 22 5 0- .269- . 1 30. 1 355. 1 449-.341103 .0359. 1 625. 91 .644 22 6 0- .487- . 1 47. 4115. 1 1 29. 2797142 .9279. 0687. 32 .330 22 7 o - .403- .217. 2922- .098. 0068113 .4313. 7662. 92 .337 22 8 0- .281- . 1 50. 1 442. 0792- .227126 .4619. 21091 .2 .417 22 9 o - .338- . 1 34. 2846. 1 500. 0855147 .3490. 4937. 32 . 1 38 221 0 0- .347- . 1 55. 2885. 1 708. 1288137 .3507. 3983. 42 .469 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 03) 23 1 0- .274- .116. 2307. 2478. 116798. 89318. 9555. 51 .526 23 2 0- .253- .137. 1076. 1 1 07-.40585. 10307. 1 523. 21 .563 23 3 o - . 1 66-.092. 0761 . 2552- .445102 .4656. 7999. 61 .616 23 4 o - .266- .118. 1 407. 2364- .213109 .1398. 2691 . 01 .692 23 5 o - .234- .080. 2340. 5284. 4395121 .4531. 2879. 1 1 .679 23 6 o - .317- . 1 43. 2223- .017- .158142 .1542. 61010 .2 .261 23 7 o - .349- .141. 2842. 1973. 0370129 .3450. 7881 . 32 .383 23 8 0- .240- .086. 1895. 3776. 0128139 .9840. 01 406 .2 .424 23 9 o - .338- .301- .014- .353- .711179 .0608. 61 163 .2 .187 231 0 o - .279- . 1 43. 1537. 1 984-.168139 .6713. 61255 .2 .494 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 04) 24 1 0- .187- .073. 0887. 4145- .347120 .2624. 3978. 81 .539 24 2 o - . 1 89-. 1 20. 0874. 1517- .32999. 51525. 4822. 21 .557 24 3 o - . 1 32-.079. 0394. 2580- .545125 .31073 . 1571 . 1 .643 24 4 o - . 1 68-.110. 0577. 2374- .482115 .4755. 1 1 1 55 . 1 .686 24 5 o - .170- .116. 0485. 1 375-.540126 .8835. 21278 . 1 .714 24 6 o - .271- . 1 65. 1511. 1097- .140200 .31041 . 1803 .2 .388 24 7 o - .325- . 1 28. 2229. 2386- .009184 .4736. 91 385 .2 .441 24 8 o - .206- .094. 1113. 31 90-.207178 .81337 .21 38 .2 .454 24 9 o - .282- .132. 1 1 68. 1 447-.300246 .61062 . 1881 .2 .178 241 0 o - .259- .119. 1 462. 2509- . 129183 .71040 .1783 .2 .514 F i g u r e A3:25-7(cont) VANCOUVER: Demand C a l i b r a t i o n Data 680 0000 Demand C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL" DWELLINGS 30 1 47 1 1 3035 1 24 4 1 3069 90 4 2 30 2 67 1 1 3036 130 4 1 3070 93 4 2 30 3 77 1 1 3037 1 38 4 1 3071 96 4 2 30 4 84 1 1 3038 1 45 4 1 3072 98 4 2 30 5 89 1 1 3039 167 4 1 3073 101 4 2 30 6 93 1 1 3040 81 5 1 3074 1 03 4 2 30 7 98 1 1 3041 1 37 5 1 3075 1 05 4 2 30 8 1 03 1 1 3042 83 1 2 3076 1 06 4 2 30 9 1 10 1 1 3043 100 1 2 3077 108 4 2 3010 120 1 1 3044 108 1 2 3078 110 4 2 301 1 157 1 1 3045 1 16 1 2 3079 1 1 1 4 2 301 2 43 2 1 3046 1 24 1 2 3080 1 1 3 4 2 301 3 61 2 1 3047 134 1 2 3081 1 1 5 4 2 301 4 70 2 1 3048 1 49 1 2 3082 1 1 7 4 2 3015 79 2 1 3049 82 2 2 3083 1 1 9 4 2 301 6 87 2 1 3050 100 2 2 3084 121 4 2 3017 94 2 1 3051 1 10 2 2 3085 1 22 4 2 3018 101 2 1 3052 1 16 2 2 3086 1 24 4 2 3019 1 06 2 1 3053 121 2 2 3087 1 26 4 2 3020 110 2 1 . 3054 126 2 2 3088 1 29 4 2 3021 1 1 5 2 1 3055 1 30 2 2 3089 1 32 4 2 3022 1 22 2 1 3056 1 35 2 2 3090 135 4 2 3023 131 2 1 3057 1 40 2 2 3091 140 4 2 3024 155 2 1 3058 1 45 2 2 3092 1 48 4 2 3025 1 18 3 1 3059 1 52 2 2 3093 1 64 4 2 3026 48 4 1 3060 161 2 2 3094 90 5 2 3027 71 4 1 3061 180 2 2 3095 121 5 2 3028 85 4 1 3062 93 3 2 3096 137 5 2 3029 94 4 1 3063 1 10 3 2 3097 150 5 2 3030 101 4 1 3064 1 27 3 2 3098 163 5 2 3031 1 06 4 1 3065 55 4 2 3099 1 78 5 2 3032 1 10 4 1 3066 74 4 2 31 0 210 5 2 3033 1 1 4 4 1 3067 81 4 2 3034 1 18 4 1 3068 87 4 2 0000 ZONAL Data 40 1 7858 26 40 2 5879 29 40 311149 42 40 4 7563 96 40 5 8300 1 53 40 615277 69 0000 Parameters 501 1 .43 501 21 .16 501 3 0.0 '501 6 .43 50171 .80 5018 0.0 50201.270 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n Data 70 1 1 .9400. 0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0 .0 106321 .000103 .2 70 22 .1840. 0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0 .0 82201 .000114 .3 70 31 .9220. 0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0 .0 188771 .000111 .8 70 42 .2450. 0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0 .0 100591 .000111 . 1 70 52 .4130. 0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0 .0 941 01 .000140 .7 70 60 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0 .0 00 .0 0 .0 F i g u r e A3:25-7(cont) VANCOUVER: Demand C a l i b r a t i o n Data 0000 Supply C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL" MODIFIED HOUSEHOLDS 0 1 1125 1 -605 0 105113757 6 7794 1938 0 2 2037 1 301 61 105221942 619036 6719 0 3 2332 1 226 96 1053 3618 7 564 124 0 4 2924 1 760 184 1054 5844 7 251 1 478 0 5 3831 1 1324 251 1055 6985 7 4079 858 0 6 4671 1 21 76 448 1056 7871 7 451 0 954 0 7 6207 1 4232 867 1057 8541 7 6443 1528 0 810322 1 9013 2424 1058 9533 7 6437 1535 0 9 893 2 -169 0 105910754 7 7273 1804 010 1476 2 396 45 106013527 7 9491 2659 011 1901 2 657 153 106118965 718523 7408 012 2538 2 1 451 295 1062 5834 8 1991 433 013 3252 2 21 40 367 1063 8699 8 4726 973 014 3870 2 2877 529 106410234 8 591 1 1259 015 4406 2 3539 684 106511070 8 7603 1785 016 4895 2 41 62 832 106611925 8 8098 1739 017 5335 2 4547 940 106712847 8 9630 231 9 018 5789 2 5026 1073 106814007 81 0674 2479 019 6124 2 5590 1229 106914785 811492 2839 020 6725 2 61 42 1409 107015517 812949 3302 021 7592 2 7246 1762 107116766 814094 3601 022 8607 2 8507 221 4 107218172 814913 3805 02312459 21 5288 5708 107320084 818151 5571 024 2683 3 498 172 107421776 818521 5336 025 4889 3 2994 568 107528526 83131911673 026 6169 3 4421 870 1076 6127 9 2181 494 027 6954 3 5266 1070 1077 8782 9 4554 970 028 8010 3 641 3 1256 1078 9999 9 6066 1 391 029 9081 3 7920 1742 ' 107910954 9 6763 1614 03010285 3 9422 2080 108011925 9 831 0 2157 03111450 310860 2559 108112807 9 8722 2320 03212815 312808 3253 108213820 9 9613 2751 03314715 315625 4496 108315775 912621 4074 03420179 325476 961 5 108422339 9228331 0174 035 2359 4 721 186 1085 5802 10 1605 422 036 4844 4 3058 561 1'086 8161 10 3866 777 037 6881 4 4677 976 1087 9018 10 4922 996 03810620 410187 3286 1088 9868 10 5207 1 1 63 039 4907 5 21 42 451 108910635 10 6123 1 386 040 7649 5 5141 1065 109011094 10 6546 1 462 04112972 51 1680 3183 109111595 10 6189 1414 042 3397 6 -717 0 109211991 10 7011 1 629 043 4519 6 -293 26 109312845 10 8568 1 978 044 5437 6 799 216 109413475 10 8787 2159 045 6403 6 612 182 109514461 1010196 2462 046 6883 6 1410 287 109615517 1011323 2707 047 7565 6 2053 397 109716450 1011777 291 1 048 8335 6 2240 492 109817566 1013016 3396 04910142 6 4482 959 109919416 1016523 4894 05012116 6 7400 1860 11 025366 1024824 9582 F i g u r e A3:26-7 VANCOUVER: Supply C a l i b r a t i o n Data 0000 Supply C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 Mean AFTER TAX INCOME by Household TYPE 20 1198.3359.5555.5978.8 20 2194.0369.1523.2822.2 20 3427.0720.5999.61571 . 20 4297.2488.7691.01 155. 20 5417.6625.9879.11278. 20 6457.2687.31010.1803 20 7422.8662.9881.31385 20 8758.51091.1406.2138 20 9663.8937.31163.1881 2010688.7983.41255.1783 0000 Demand PARAMETERS by TYPE 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 01 ) 21 1 o - .508- .193. 3239. 0561 . 163465. 3277.29198. 31 .533 21 2 0- .574- .232. 3552- .021 . 222970. 1 165.93194. 01 .572 21 3 0- .339- .176. 2897. 0271 . 134489. 41226. 6427. 01 .559 21 4 0- .489- . 1 25. 3258. 21 26. 170890. 50119. 7297. 21 .609 21 5 o - .379- . 1 34. 2729. 2738. 088895. 92203. 8417. 61 .642 21 6 0- .590- . 1 72. 3858. 0640. 2556117 .4147. 9457. 22 .279 21 7 o - .557- .237. 3527- .079. 195699. 80150. 0422. 82 .337 21 8 0- .364- .192. 1825. 0692- .122113 .6380. 6758. 52 .421 21 9 0- .425- . 1 65. 3425. 0851 . 1932129 .1305. 6663. 82 . 1 36 2110 0- .393- .173. 2728. 0669. 0602110 .5331 . 0688. 72 .439 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 02) 22 1 0- .340- .114. 2057. 2636- .06680. 40186. 3359. 51 .534 22 2 0- .343- .215. 1 100-.073- .34081 . 50190. 6369. 1 1 .561 22 3 o - .217- .072. 1 988. 4723. 075099. 15443. 4720. 51 .576 22 4 0- .344- .091 . 3300. 2897. 1877102 .3251 . 7488. 71 .640 22 5 0- .269- . 1 30. 1 355. 1 449-.341103 .0359. 1 625. 91 .644 22 6 o - .487- . 1 47. 4115. 1 1 29. 2797142 .9279. 0687. 32 .330 22 7 o - .403- .217. 2922- .098. 0068113 .4313. 7662. 92 .337 22 8 0- .281- . 1 50. 1442. 0792- .227126 .4619. 21 091 .2 .417 22 9 o - .338- . 1 34. 2846. 1 500. 0855147 .3490. 4937. 32 . 1 38 221 0 0- .347- . 1 55. 2885. 1708. 1288137 .3507. 3983. 42 .469 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 03) 23 1 0- .274- .116. 2307. 2478. 116798. 89318. 9555. 51 .526 23 2 0- .253- . 1 37. 1076. 1 1 07-.40585. 10307. 1 523. 21 .563 23 3 0- . 166-.092. 0761 . 2552- .445102 .4656. 7999. 61 .616 23 4 0- .266- .118. 1407. 2364- .213109 .1398. 2691 . 01 .692 23 5 o - .234- .080. 2340. 5284. 4395121 .4531 . 2879. 1 1 .679 23 6 o - .317- . 1 43. 2223- .017- .158142 .1542. 61010 .2 .261 23 7 o - .349- .141. 2842. 1973. 0370129 .3450. 7881 . 32 .383 23 8 0- .240- .086. 1895. 3776. 0128139 .9840. 01 406 .2 .424 23 9 o - .338- .301- .014- .353- .711179 .0608. 61 1 63 .2 .187 231 0 o - .279- . 1 43. 1537. 1 984-.168139 .6713. 61 255 .2 .494 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 04) 24 1 0- . 187-.073. 0887. 41 45-.347120 .2624. 3978. 81 .539 24 2 o - .189- . 1 20 . 0874. 1517- .32999. 51525. 4822. 21 .557 24 3 0- . 1 32-.079. 0394. 2580- .545125 .31073 . 1 571 . 1 .643 24 4 0- .168- .110. 0577. 2374- .482115 .4755. 1 1 1 55 . 1 .686 24 5 0- . 1 70-.116. 0485. 1375- .540126 .8835. 21 278 . 1 .714 24 6 o - .271- . 1 65. 1511. 1 097-.140200 .31041 .1803 .2 .388 24 7 o - .325- .128. 2229. 2386- .009184 .4736. 91385 .2 .441 24 8 o - .206- .094. 1113. 3190- .207178 .81337 .2138 .2 .454 24 9 o - .282- .132. 1 168. 1447- .300246 .61062 . 1 881 .2 . 1 78 241 0 o - .259- .119. 1 462. 2509- .129183 .71040 .1783 .2 .514 F i g u r e A3:26-7(cont) VANCOUVER: Supply C a l i b r a t i o n Data 0000 Supply C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL" DWELLINGS 30 1 46 1 1 3024 95 30 2 68 1 1 3025 100 30 3 80 1 1 3026 105 30 4 93 1 1 3027 110 30 5 1 29 1 1 3028 185 30 6 28 2 1 3029 66 30 7 52 2 1 3030 86 30 8 65 2 1 3031 89 30 9 75 2 1 3032 93 3010 83 2 1 3033 96 301 1 91 2 1 3034 100 3012 100 2 1 3035 103 3013 110 2 1 3036 107 3014 1 39 2 1 3037 1 10 3015 49 4 1 3038 1 1 4 3016 78 4 1 3039 1 17 3017 93 4 1 3040 121 3018 1 05 4 1 3041 1 24 301 9 1 19 4 1 3042 1 42 3020 157 4 1 3043 121 3021 126 5 1 3044 190 3022 76 1 2 3045 63 3023 89 1 2 3046 91 0000 ZONAL Data 40 1 7858 26 40 2 5879 40 4 7563 96 40 5 8300 0000 Parameters 50 1 .4 50 2 . 1 501 1 .43 50121 .16 5016 .43 50171 .80 50201 .270 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n Data 70 1 1 .5890 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 21 .61 90 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 31 .4050 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 41 .5790 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 51 .6700 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 61 .5770 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 72 .0440 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 82 .3370 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70 91 .9090 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70102 .3330 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 701 1 2 .3680 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 70122 .0920 .0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 0. 1 2 3047 95 4 2 1 2 3048 99 4 2 1 2 3049 1 04 4 2 1 2 3050 108 4 2 1 2 3051 112 4 2 2 2 3052 1 16 4 2 2 2 3053 1 18 4 2 2 2 3054 1 20 4 2 2 2 3055 122 4 2 2 2 3056 1 24 4 2 2 2 3057 1 26 4 2 2 2 3058 1 29 4 2 2 2 3059 131 4 2 2 2 3060 1 33 4 2 2 2 3061 1 36 4 2 2 2 3062 1 40 4 2 2 2 3063 1 44 4 2 2 2 3064 182 4 2 2 2 3065 73 5 2 3 2 3066 1 04 5 2 3 2 3067 1 17 5 2 4 2 3068 1 30 5 2 4 2 3069 1 60 5 2 9 40 311149 42 3 40 615277 69 501 3 45. 5018 71 . 0 .0 0. 0 0 .0 88371 .000100. 5 0 .0 0. 0 0 .0 80361 .000 99. 8 0 .0 0. 0 0 .0 205191 .000114. 7 0 .0 0. 0 0 .0 96301 .000110. 9 0 .0 0. 0 0 .0 90701 .000107. 3 0 .0 0. 0 0 .0 88821 .000122. 9 0 .0 0. 0 0 .0 135820 .894109. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0 .0 85770 .872106. 4 0 .0 0. 0 0 .0 191130 .992123. 5 0 .0 0. 0 0 .0 102341 .000115. 0 0 .0 0. 0 0 .0 91500 .912113. 2 0 .0 0. 0 0 .0 108751 .000138. 0 Fi g u r e A3:26-7(cont) VANCOUVER: Supply C a l i b r a t i o n Data 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" MODIFIED HOUSEHOLDS and BASE Data 0 1 1125 1 -604 0 151 .421 34 .6 0 2 2037 1 301 61 21 .543 55 .7 0 3 2332 1 226 96 161 .542 63 .8 0 4 2924 1 760 184 101 .574 70 .4 0 5 3831 1 1 324 251 41 .559 77 .5 0 6 4671 1 2176 448 9991 .749 67 .5 0 7 6207 1 4232 867 9991 .749 77 .3 0 810322 1 9013 2424 9991 .749 93 .7 0 9 893 2 -1 68 0 1 1 .406 31 .7 010 1476 2 396 45 71 .588 44 .3 011 1901 2 657 1 53 91 .531 60 .0 012 2538 2 1451 295 1 1 1 .558 75 .0 013 3252 2 2140 367 171 .593 79 .7 014 3870 2 2877 529 121 .565 83 .3 015 4406 2 3539 684 9991 .749 68 .0 016 4895 2 4162 832 9991 .749 69 .8 017 5335 2 4547 940 9991 .749 70 .8 018 5789 2 5026 1 073 9991 .749 71 .0 019 6124 2 5590 1 229 9991 .749 70 .5 020 6725 2 6142 1 409 9991 .749 72 .6 021 7592 2 7246 1762 9991 .749 76 .4 022 8607 2 8507 221 4 9991 .749 79 .4 02312459 21 5288 5708 9991 .749101 .9 024 2683 3 498 172 81 .51 1 51 .0 025 4889 3 2994 568 181 .568 87 .8 026 6169 • 3 4421 870 9991 .749 83 .0 027 6954 3 5266 1 070 9991 .749 84 .8 028 8010 3 6413 1 256 9991 .749 84 .0 029 9081 3 7920 1 742 9991 .749 83 .6 03010285 3 9422 2080 9991 .749 87 . 1 03111450 310860 2559 9991 .749 88 .7 03212815 312808 3253 9991 .749 92 .6 03314715 315625 4496 9991 .749100 .5 03420179 325476 9615 9991 .749120 . 1 035 2359 4 721 186 31 .537 63 .9 036 4844 4 3058 561 191 .614102 .5 037 6881 4 4677 976 51 .624111 .3 03810620 410187 3286 141 .653122 .4 039 4907 5 21 42 451 131 .628 95 .7 040 7649 5 5141 1 065 21 1 .608107 .5 04112972 511680 3183 201 .641136 .5 042 3397 6 -716 0 652 .069 83 .5 043 4519 6 -292 26 462 . 126107 .0 044 5437 6 799 216 242 .257118 .8 045 6403 6 612 182 9992 .453117 .9 046 6883 6 1410 287 9992 .453122 .7 047 7565 6 2053 397 372 .312139 .8 048 8335 6 2240 492 672 .294147 .2 04910142 6 4482 959 392 .297148 .5 050121 1 6 6 7400 1860 9992 .453125 .9 Figu r e A3:27-7 VANCOUVER: MODIFIED P o l i c y Dataset 685 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" MODIFIED HOUSEHOLDS and BASE Data 05113757 6 7794 1938 9992. 453139. 5 05221942 619036 6719 9992. 453198. 1 053 3618 7 564 124 222. 055 85. 3 054 5844 7 251 1 478 322. 239113. 9 055 6985 7 4079 858 332. 260118. 7 056 7871 7 4510 954 472. 279118. 5 057 8541 7 6443 1 528 482. 283123. 4 058 9533 7 6437 1535 662. 298130. 0 05910754 7 7273 1804 502. 327136. 1 06013527 7 9491 2659 602. 328166. 8 06118965 718523 7408 642. 330226. 9 062 5834 8 1991 433 302. 051 94. 8 063 8699 8 4726. 973 252. 261121. 5 06410234 8 591 1 1 259 262. 302129. 9 06511070 8 7603 1785 492. 333130. 5 06611925 8 8098 1739 362. 324133. 7 06712847 8 9630 2319 272. 307136. 5 06814007 810674 2479 382. 306141. 3 06914785 811492 2839 522. 312144. 1 07015517 812949 3302 402. 292149. 0 07116766 814094 3601 552. 308151. 2 07218172 814913 3805 572. 329157. 4 07320084 818151 5571 612. 325169. 4 07421776 818521 5336 622. 347175. 9 07528526 83131911673 282. 287225. 8 076 6127 9 2181 494 312. 080105. 6 077 8782 9 4554 970 9992. 453112. 2 078 9999 9 6066 1 391 9992. 453117. 1 07910954 9 6763 1614 9992. 453119. 1 08011925 9 8310 21 57 9992. 453127. 1 08112807 9 8722 2320 9992. 453137. 1 08213820 9 9613 2751 9992. 453148. 7 08315775 912621 4074 9992. 453163. 6 08422339 92283310174 9992. 453199. 5 085 5802 10 1605 422 232. 076 99. 0 086 8161 10 3866 111 342. 274121. 7 087 9018 10 4922 996 352. 319127. 7 088 9868 10 5207 1 1 63 512. 302137. 6 08910635 10 6123 1 386 532. 301144. 8 09011094 10 6546 1462 542. 312147. 8 09111595 10 6189 1414 412. 308152. 3 09211991 10 7011 1629 562. 323153. 2 09312845 10 8568 1978 682. 298158. 7 09413475 10 8787 21 59 582. 314158. 4 09514461 1010196 2462 432. 378152. 4 09615517 1011323 2707 592. 330161. 5 09716450 1011777 291 1 422. 303172. 9 09817566 101301 6 3396 632. 338177. 9 09919416 1016523 4894 692. 317195. 6 1 025366 1024824 9582 442. 383238. 5 F i g u r e A3:27-7 VANCOUVER: MODIFIED P o l i c y Dataset 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 Mean AFTER TAX INCOME by 20 1198.3359.5555.5978.8 20 2194.0369.1523.2822.2 20 3427.0720.5999.61571. 20 4297.2488.7691.01155. 20 5417.6625.9879.11278. 0000 Demand PARAMETERS by TYPE Household TYPE 20 6457.2687.31010 20 7422 20 8758 20 9663 2010688 1803 8662.9881.31385 51091.1406.2138 8937.31163.1881 7983.41255.1783 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 01 ) 21 1 o - .508- . 1 93. 3239. 0561 . 163465. 3277.29198. 31 .533 21 2 o - .574- .232. 3552- .021 . 222970. 1165.93194. 01 .572 21 3 0- .339- . 1 76. 2897. 0271 . 134489. 41226. 6427. 01 .559 21 4 o - .489- . 1 25. 3258. 21 26. 170890. 50119. 7297. 21 .609 21 5 o - .379- . 1 34. 2729. 2738. 088895. 92203. 8417. 61 .642 21 6 o - .590- . 1 72. 3858. 0640. 2556117 .4147. 9457. 22 .279 21 7 0- .557- .237. 3527- .079. 195699. 80150. 0422. 82 .337 21 8 0- .364- .192. 1825. 0692- .122113 .6380. 6758. 52 .421 21 9 o - .425- . 1 65. 3425. 0851 . 1932129 .1305. 6663. 82 . 1 36 2110 0- .393- .173. 2728. 0669. 0602110 .5331 . 0688. 72 .439 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 02) 22 1 0- .340- .114. 2057. 2636- .06680. 40186. 3359. 51 .534 22 2 o - .343- .215. 1 100-.073- .34081. 50190. 6369. 1 1 .561 22 3 0- .217- .072. 1988. 4723. 075099. 15443. 4720. 51 .576 22 4 o - .344- .091 . 3300. 2897. 1877102 .3251. 7488. 71 .640 22 5 0- .269- . 1 30. 1 355. 1 449- .341103 .0359. 1 625. 91 .644 22 6 0- .487- . 1 47. 4115. 1 1 29. 2797142 .9279. 0687. 32 .330 22 7 o - .403- .217. 2922- .098. 0068113 .4313. 7662. 92 .337 22 8 o - .281- . 1 50. 1442. 0792- .227126 .4619. 21 091 .2 .417 22 9 0- .338- . 1 34. 2846. 1 500. 0855147 .3490. 4937. 32 . 1 38 221 0 0- .347- . 1 55. 2885. 1 708. 1288137 .3507. 3983. 42 .469 0000 (quart i l e 03) 23 1 0- .274- .116. 2307. 2478. 116798. 89318. 9555. 51 .526 23 2 0- .253- .137. 1076. 1 1 07-.40585. 10307. 1 523. 21 .563 23 3 o - . 1 66-.092. 0761 . 2552- .445102 .4656. 7999. 61 .616 23 4 0- .266- .118. 1407. 2364- .213109 .1398. 2691 . 01 .692 23 5 0- .234- .080. 2340. 5284. 4395121 .4531 . 2879. 1 1 .679 23 6 o - .317- . 1 43. 2223- .017- .158142 .1542. 61010 .2 .261 23 7 o - .349- .141. 2842. 1 973. 0370129 .3450. 7881 . 32 .383 23 8 0- .240- .086. 1895. 3776. 0128139 .9840. 01 406 .2 .424 23 9 0- .338- .301- .014- .353- .711179 .0608. 61 163 .2 . 187 2310 o - .279- .143. 1 537. 1 984- .168139 .6713. 61255 .2 .494 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 04) 24 1 0- . 1 87-.073. 0887. 4145- .347120 .2624. 3978. 81 .539 24 2 0- .189- .120. 0874. 1517- .32999. 51525. 4822. 21 .557 24 3 o - . 1 32-.079. 0394. 2580- .545125 .31073 . 1 571 . 1 .643 24 4 o - .168- .110. 0577. 2374- .482115 .4755. 1 1 155 . 1 .686 24 5 0- .170- .116. 0485. 1 375- .540126 .8835. 21 278 . 1 .714 24 6 o - .271- . 1 65. 1511. 1 097- .140200 .31041 . 1803 .2 .388 24 7 0- .325- . 1 28. 2229. 2386- .009184 .4736. 91 385 .2 .441 24 8 o - .206- .094. 1113. 3190- .207178 .81337 .21 38 .2 .454 24 9 0- .282- . 1 32. 1 168. 1447- .300246 .61062 . 1881 .2 .178 2410 o - .259- .119. 1 462. 2509- .129183 .71040 .1783 .2 .514 F i g u r e A3:27-7(cont) VANCOUVER: MODIFIED P o l i c y Dataset 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" DWELLINGS 30 1 46 1 1 3024 95 1 30 2 68 1 1 3025 100 1 30 3 80 1 1 3026 105 1 30 4 93 1 1 3027 110 1 30 5 129 1 1 3028 185 1 30 6 28 2 1 3029 66 2 30 7 52 2 1 3030 86 2 30 8 65 2 1 3031 89 2 30 9 75 2 1 3032 93 2 301 0 83 2 1 3033 96 2 301 1 91 2 1 3034 100 2 301 2 100 2 1 3035 1 03 2 301 3 110 2 1 3036 1 07 2 301 4 1 39 2 1 3037 '1 1 0 2 301 5 49 4 1 3038 1 1 4 2 301 6 78 4 1 3039 1 17 2 301 7 93 4 1 3040 121 2 3018 105 4 1 3041 1 24 2 3019 119 4 1 3042 1 42 2 3020 157 4 1 3043 121 3 3021 126 5 1 3044 190 3 3022 76 1 2 3045 63 4 3023 89 1 2 3046 91 4 0000 ZONAL Data 40 1 7858 26 40 2 5879 29 40 4 7563 96 40 5 8300 1 53 0000 Parameters 50 10 .400 50 20 .100 50 30 .500 50 40 .350 50 50 .600 50 60 .325 501 1 0 .430 501 21 . 1 60 501 60 .430 501 71 .800 50201.270 687 2 3047 95 4 2 2 3048 99 4 2 2 3049 1 04 4 2 2 3050 108 4 2 2 3051 1 12 4 2 2 3052 116 4 2 2 3053 1 18 4 2 2 3054 120 4 2 2 3055 122 4 2 2 3056 124 4 2 2 3057 1 26 4 2 2 3058 1 29 4 2 2 3059 131 4 2 2 3060 1 33 4 2 2 3061 1 36 4 2 2 3062 1 40 4 2 2 3063 1 44 4 2 2 3064 182 4 2 2 3065 73 5 2 2 3066 1 04 5 2 2 3067 1 1 7 5 2 2 3068 1 30 5 2 2 3069 1 60 5 2 40 311149 42 40 615277 69 50 71.193 50 81.115 5013 65.0 5018 80.0 Fi g u r e A3:27-7(cont) VANCOUVER: MODIFIED P o l i c y Dataset 688 WINNIPEG 689 Number of Zones : 05 D i s t r i b u t i o n of Census T r a c t s to Zone 1961 1 971 1 39 41 2 25 30 3 12 12 4 21 20 5 1 1 A — 2 T o t a l 98 106 note: "A" i n d i c a t e s annexed t r a c t s . : annexed census t r a c t s i n c l u d e d i n Zone 5 S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : monthly rent value income access 1 961 1 971 1 961 1 971 1 961 1 971 1 80. 99. 12,361. 14,585. 3,526. 7,793. 38. 2 89. 1 35. 16,449. 22,088. 4,610. 11,353. 60. 3 60. 77. 10,332. 13,320. 2,545. 6,594. 21 . 4 62. 127. 12,614. 21,701 . 3,678. 10,572. 104. 5 57. 85. 34,206. 53,510. 4,532. 30,529. 87. A 1 45. 25,314. 11,636. 115. >tal 79. 113. 18,221 . 21,304. 3,814. 9,382. 54. T o t a l D w e l l ings i n Zones; 1 961 1 971 dw e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g s %CMA stock NEW %new %CMA new 1 62,815. 72,740. 43.7 10,084. 13.9 24. 1 2 40,807. 52,985. 31.8 14,980. 28.3 35.8 3 15,125. 14,325. 8.6 1,235. 8.6 2.9 4 9,212. 22,235. 13.4 12,579. 56.6 30.0 5 442. 805. 0.5 370. 45.9 0.9 A 3,380. 2.1 2,638. 78.0 6.3 to t 128,401. 166,470. 100.0 41,885. 25.2 100.0 source: program "CZONE.FORT": f i l e s WIN61.INPUT and WIN71.INPUT. Fig u r e A3:0l-8 WINNIPEG: Zonal C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s (5 zones) 690 F i g u r e A3:02-8 WINNIPEG: C l u s t e r i n g (5 z o n e s ) 691 Demographical C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s : P o p u l a t i o n [1] 1961: 475,989. [2] 1971: 540,265. Households [1] 1961: 128,532. [2] 1971: 166,670. S o u r c e s : [ l ] S t a t i s t i c s Canada. CT 95-535 CT-20 :[2] S t a t i s t i c s Canada. CT 95-728 s e r i e s A Mean Household Incomes: 1971 Census [3] : 9,380. 1974 SHU data [4] : 9,858. d e f l a t o r : 0.9517 SHU d e f l a t e d : 9,476. Sources: [3] S t a t i s t i c s Canada. CT 95-731 s e r i e s B , v a r i a b l e 49 : [4] f i l e WIN.SHU SHU d a t a s e t : Sample s i z e : 2812. Sum of the WEIGHTS : 169,982. RATIO of SHU weights to a c t u a l households : 1.01987 "Model" Households: # SHU a c t u a l household mean # SHU "model" h'hol d s / h'holds type income h'holds h'holds model /"model" 1 8,777. 15,446. 9. 1,716. 1,683. 2 11,662. 53,765. 32. 1,680. 1,647. 3 11 ,280. 12,329. 7. 1,761. 1 ,727. 4 11,494. 26,592. 16. 1,685. 1,652. 5 6,666. 15,783. 9. 1,754. 1,720. 6 6,837. 13,971.* 8. 1,746. 1,712. 7 7,181. 18,791. 1 1 . 1,708. 1,675. 8 4, 167. 12,945. 8. 1,618. 1,586. source: program "HH1.FORT" : f i l e WIN.SHU Fi g u r e A3:03-8 WINNIPEG: HOUSEHOLD C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . 692 T o t a l 1961 d w e l l i n g s : 128,401. Rental : 42,684. Owner-occupier : 85,719. S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : zone rent # r ental value #o-o annual u n i t s u n i t s r e n t / v a l u e 1 78. 23,532. 11,726. 39,283. 0.0792 2 89. 8,501. 16,287. 32,306. 0.0660 3 59. 9,060. 10,025. 6,065. 0.0708 4 58. 1,548. 12,623. 7,664. 0.0552 5 57. 43. 34,206. 399. 0.0204 t o t a l 75. 42,684. 13,509. 85,719. 0.0672 source: program "D61.FORT" : dataset WIN61.INPUT. 1961 "Model" D w e l l i n g s : d e r i v a t i o n : 1961 Dwellings : TOTAL : RATIO Of EXISTING unannexed/TOTAL : TOTAL 1961 Dwellings EXISTING i n 1971 : TOTAL 1961 Dwellings ADJUSTED f o r ANNEXED 1971 "model" Dwellings 1971 RATIO ACTUAL/"model" 1961 "model" Dwellings 128,401. 96.4% 124,585. 129,171. 100. 1 665. 78. d i s t r i b u t i o n : zone d w e l l i n g s 1 2 3 4 5 62,815. 40,807. 15,125. 9,212. 442. # "model" d w e l l i n g 38. 24. 9. 6. 1 . a c t u a l / "model" 1653. 1700. 1 681 . 1 535. 442. 'RHS"/actual SERVICES c a l c u l a t e d weighted 1 .0425 0.9562 1.1752 1 . 1104 0.7855 0.9834 0.9020 1 . 1 086 1 .0475 0.7410 e r r o r of f i t 0.02919 source: program "D61.FORT" dataset WIN61.INPUT. Fi g u r e A3:04-8 WINNIPEG: 1961 Dwel l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . OWNER/OCCUPIER MODEL RENTAL MODEL O.L.S. W.L.S. O.L.S. W.L.S. CONSTANT MULTIPLE CONSTRUCTED PRE 20 20-45 CONDITION LN ROOMS LN INCOME ACCESS 4.9785 (15.1) 0.5586 (15.1) -.3149 (7.70) -.1684 (4.73) 0.2255 (5.91) 0.8993 (17.1 ) 0.3484 (8.53) -.0001 (0.20) 4.9536 (19.0) 0.4923 (15.0) -.3767 (11.5) -.2146 (8.16) 0. 1851 (5.88) 1 . 1440 (25.6) 0.3100 (9.41) 0.0002 (0.97) 2.4903 (6.20) 0.1171 (0.26) -.2124 (4.28) -.1837 (4.10) 0.0723 (1.58) 0.4674 (7.30) 0.4655 (9.37) -.0026 (6.27) 3.2668 (10.6) 0.1150 (3.66) -.3063 (8.37) -.1880 (4.77) 0.0509 . (1.57) 0.4964 (11.6) 0.3635 (9.68) -.0020 (5.46) R2 OBSERVATIONS 0.54 834 0.99 834 0.38 775 0.99 775 note " t " s t a t i s t i s i n bracke t s data source: WIN61.EA MEANS: LN INCOME 8.2010 MULTIPLE 0.2608 ACCESS 46.4 F i g u r e A3:05-8 WINNIPEG: 1961 Hedonic Estimates 694 T o t a l 1971 d w e l l i n g s : 166,475. Rent a l : 68,100. Owner-occupier : 98,375. S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : zone rent #rental value #o-o annual u n i t s u n i t s r e n t / v a l u e 1 97. 35,620. 14,623. 37,151 . 0.0804 2 1 37. 18,405. 21,967. 34,605. 0.0744 3 77. 9,135. 12,698. 5,185. 0.0720 4 1 26. 4,000. 21,876. 18,225. 0.0696 5 141. 940. 31,823. 3,245. 0.0528 t o t a l 108. 68,100. 19,016. 98,375. 0.0684 >urce: program "D71 .FORT" : dataset WIN71. INPUT. )71 "Model" Dw e l l i n g s : t o t a l number of "model" d w e l l i n g s : 100. d i s t r i b u t i o n : # "RHS"/actual SERVICES # "model" a c t u a l / zone d w e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g "model" c a l c u l a t e d weighted 1 72,735. 43. 1692. 1.0609 1.0406 2 53,010. 32. 1657. 0.8945 0.8773 3 14,320. 9. 1 591 . 1.2158 1.1925 4 22,225. 13. 1710. 0.9982 0.9791 5 4, 185. 3. 1395. 0.8015 0.7861 1 664. e r r o r of f i t 0.02088 source: program "D71.FORT" : dataset WIN71.INPUT. Fi g u r e A3:06-8 WINNIPEG: 1971 Dwel l i n g C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . ["GAMMA" C a l i b r a t i o n Set] 695 T o t a l 1971 d w e l l i n g s : 166,475. B u i l t p r i o r 1961 : 124,618. B u i l t 1961-1971 : 41,857. S e l e c t e d C a l c u l a t e d S t a t i s t i c s : zone rent #rental value #o-o annual u n i t s u n i t s r e n t / v a l u e 1 89. 27,109. 14,880. 35,571 . 0.0720 2 117. 9,106. 20,880. 28,926. 0.0672 3 76. 8,009. 13,621. 5,074. 0.0672 4 87. 1,667. 17,847. 7,975. 0.0588 5 91 . 240. 30,973. 941 . 0.0360 99 141 . 21,969. 25,056. 19,888. 0.0648 CMA 108. 68,100. 19,191. 98,375. 0.0672 source: program "D71.FORT" : dataset WIN71.INPUT. 1971 "Model" D w e l l i n g s : t o t a l number of "model" d w e l l i n g s : 100. d i s t r i b u t i o n : # "RHS"/actual SERVICES "model" a c t u a l / zone d w e l l i n g s d w e l l i n g "model" c a l c u l a t e d weighted 1 62,679. 37. 1,694. 1 .0834 1.0632 2 38,032. 23. 1,654. 0.9502 0.9325 3 13,084. 8. 1,636. 1 . 1872 1.1650 4 9,642. 6. 1,607. 1.1938 1.1715 5 1,181. 1 . 1,181. 0.9298 0.9118 99 41,857. 25. 1,674. 0.8418 0.8261 1,664. e r r o r of f i t 0.01599 source: program "D71.FORT" : dataset WIN71.INPUT. F i g u r e A3:07-8 WINNIPEG: 1971 Dwelling C h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . ["BETA" C a l i b r a t i o n Set] OWNER/OCCUPIER MODEL RENTAL MODEL O.L.S. W.L.S. O.L.S. W.L.S. CONSTANT MULTIPLE CONSTRUCTION 51-60 46-50 20-45 PRE 20 FACILITIES LN INCOME LN ROOMS R2 OBSERVATIONS 7.8647 (48.9) 0. 1522 (4.22) -.0637 (1.94) -.2482 (6.97) -.3645 (11.4) -.5497 (15.8) 0.1281 (1.48) 0.0886 (6.18) 0.66.74 . (16.3) 0.42 1099 7.8134 (51.3) 0.2116 (5.67) -.1398 (4.58) -.3073 (9.13) -.4725 (15.3) -.6261 (18.9) 0.1343 (1.63) 0.0994 (6.95) 0.6728 (16.4) 0.99 1099 5.4747 (44.0) 0.0778 (3.27) -.2027 (8.09) -.3259 (8.86) -.3732 (14.3) -.4521 (16.9) 0.2925 (7.21 ) 0.1465 (10.6) 0.2026 (8.67) 0.49 1119 5.4589 (50.5) 0.0670 (2.85) -.1905 (6.82) -.2785 (7.11) -.3366 (12.4) -.3980 (14.4) 0.2822 (7.59) 0.1437 (11.8) 0.2247 (10.0) 0.98 1119 WEIGHTED 20-45/PRE 20 -.4377 -.5332 -.4119 3668 note " t " s t a t i s t i s i n brackets data source: WIN.SHU weighted c o e f f i c i e n t f o r 20-45 and pre 20 used as a c t u a l census data combines these v a r i a b l e s MEANS: LN INCOME 8.95347 MULTIPLE 0.4521 ACCESS 54.0 Fi g u r e A3:08-8 WINNIPEG: 1971 Hedonic Estimates 697 adjustment v a l u e s : 1971 Census 18,221 . 113. 9,382. PRICE RENT INCOME R/V r a t i o : 0.0684 r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s and ALPHAs: O.L.S. MODEL 1974 SHU 32,050. 1 38. 9,858. d e f l a t o r 0.56852 0.81884 0.9517 P(j)/PN r a t i o : 0.91624 c o e f f i c i e n t s ALPHAs [1] CONSTANT (TYPE 1) DUMMY (TYPE 2) DUMMY (TYPE 3) DUMMY (TYPE 4) DUMMY (TYPE 5) DUMMY (TYPE 6) DUMMY (TYPE 7) DUMMY (TYPE 8) R2 OBSERVATIONS 2.6807 (94.7) -.1529 (4.36) -.1721 (4.02) -.2710 (6.51) 0.2963 (6.88) 0.3632 (8.65) 0.1514 (3.54) 0.7732 (16.6) 0.24 2566 0.1460 0.1253 0.1229 0.1113 0.1963 0.2099 0.1698 0.3162 W.L.S. MODEL coef f i c i e n t s .7282 (86.0) ALPHAS [1] [2] 2 0.1531 0.1613 -.2231 (5.98) -.2339 (4.80) -.3552 (8.27) 0.1564 (3.26) 0.3226 (6.83) 0.1008 (2.23) 0.5907 (11.6) 0.75 2566 0.1224 0.1292 0.1211 0. 1278 0. 1073 0.1133 0.1790 0.1882 0.2113 0.2218 0.1693 0.1781 0.2763 0.2889 n o t e : [ l ] ALPHA values are c a l c u l a t e d as; ALPHA(1) = EXP(INTERCEPT) ALPHA(2)-(8) = EXP(INTERCEPT+COEFFICIENT) [2] ALPHA values a d j u s t e d as d e s c r i b e d in S e c t i o n A1.32 [3] " t " values i n bracket s F i g u r e A3:09-8 WINNIPEG: Household ALPHAS 698 r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s and ALPHAs R log( ) = log(a) + l o g ( Y ( i ) ) Y ( i ) O.L.S. MODEL W.L. S. MODEL ALPHAS [1] coef f i c i e n t coef f i c i e n t at mean [2] 1421 lowest h i g h e s t CONSTANT (TYPE 1) 9.8140 (60.7) 9.9232 (62.9) 0. 0.1009 0. 3292 DUMMY (TYPE 2) 0.0009 (0.03) -.0129 (0.46) 0. 1117 0.0683 1 . 1 035* DUMMY (TYPE 3) 0.0245 (0.76) -.0082 (0.22) 0. 1 153 0.0896 0. 1821 DUMMY (TYPE 4) -.0691 (2.19) -.1121 (3.48) 0. 1024 0.0648 0. 221 5 DUMMY (TYPE 5) 0.0201 (0.61) -.1119 (3.11) 0. 1 583 0.0933 0. 31 26 DUMMY (TYPE 6) 0. 1039 (3.24) 0.0576 (1.63) 0. 1 639 0.1073 0. 3844 DUMMY (TYPE 7) -.0443 ( 1 .37) -.1026 (3.04) 0. 1 506 0.0939 0. 3734 DUMMY (TYPE 8) 0.0785 (2.05) -.1067 (2.63) 0. 2320 0.1328 0. 4293 LN INCOME -.7905 (44.5) -.8006 (46.1) R2 0.57 0.86 OBSERVATIONS 2566 2566 note: [1] ALPHA values are c a l c u l a t e d by the s o l u t i o n a l g o r i t h m program by s u b s t i t u t i n g the household's "model" incomes, as d e s c r i b e d i n S e c t i o n A1.32. These are unadjusted v a l u e s . [2] c a l c u l a t e d by s u b s t i t u t i n g TYPEs mean income. [3] " t " values i n b r a c k e t s . F i g u r e A3:09-8(b) WINNIPEG: Household ALPHAs [modified] 699 Operating and C a p i t a l C o s t s : Annual Operating Year Costs Annual C a p i t a l Costs Dw e l l i n g S t a r t s Weight Weighted Operating Costs Weighted C a p i t a l Costs 1961 680.0 1047. 4, 187 - - -1962 691 .0 1 049. 2,857 0.0.57 39.4 59.8 1 963 699.0 1103. 4,519 0.091 63.6 100.4 1 964 713.0 1091 . 4, 189 0.084 59.9 91 .6 1 965 730.0 1097. 3,898 0.078 57.0 85.6 1 966 753.0 1 187. 2,922 0.059 44.4 70.0 1967 787.0 1428. 3,216 0.065 51 .2 92.8 1968 833.0 1641 . 4,739 0.095 79.2 1 55.9 1969 880.0 1957. 9,030 0.181 159.3 354.2 1 970 940.0 21 46. 6,661 0. 1 34 126.1 287.6 1 971 994.0 1916. 7,726 0. 1 55 1 54. 1 297.0 "Model" C o s t s : Annual Annual T o t a l Operating C a p i t a l Annual Costs Costs Cost PO PC PN QM 1 961 680.0 1047.0 1727.0 0.394 0.606 1 .000 decade weighted 834.0 1595.0 2429.0 0.484 0.926 1.410 54 1971 994.2 1916.0 2910.2 0.576 1 . 109 1 .685 45 I F i g u r e A3:10-8 WINNIPEG: P r i c e s , Costs and Q u a n t i t i e s [New C o n s t r u c t i o n ] 0000 GAMMA CALIBRATION 0000 INCOME by TYPE 0000 "MODEL" HOUSEHOLDS 20 1 8776 10 1 1526 1 1051 5854 4 20 211662 10 2 4070 1 1052 7152 4 20 311279 10 3 5987 1 1053 8133 4 20 411494 10 4 7252 1 1054 8648 4 20 5 6666 10 5 8583 1 1055 9421 4 20 6 6836 10 6 9721 1 105610016 4 20 7 7181 10 711221 1 105710920 4 20 8 4167 10 813032 1 105811668 4 10 917884 1 105912454 4 0000 ALPHA by TYPE 1010 99 2 106013470 4 21 1.1531 1011 841 2 106115176 4 21 2.1224 1012 2835 2 106216947 4 21 3.1211 1013 4149 2 106318995 4 21 4.1073 1014 4931 2 106429789 4 21 5.1790 1015 5981 2 1065 1617 5 21 6.2113 1016 6691 2 1066 2784 5 21 7.1693 1017 7497 2 1067 3590 5 21 8.2763 1018 7973 2 1068 4038 5 1019 8421 2 1069 4729 5 1020 8813 2 1070 6220 5 1021 9366 2 1071 7756 5 1022 9733 2 1072 9937 5 102310025 2 107320044 5 102410476 2 1074 1159 6 102510873 2 1075 2178 6 102611440 2 1076 3624 6 102711793 2 1077 5027 6 102812129 2 1078 7029 6 102912437 2 1079 8503 6 103012799 2 108010715 6 103113455 2 108116512 6 103213856 2 1082 1085 7 103314426 2 1083 1993 7 103415048 2 1084 3332 7 103515609 2 1085 4629 7 103616621 2 1086 5545 7 103717486 2 1087 6242 7 103818728 2 1088 7263 7 103921262 2 1089 8404 7 104025012 2 109010060 7 104132518 2 109112075 7 1042 4355 3 109219192 7 1043 7724 3 1093 1157 8 1044 9406 3 1094 1844 8 104510884 3 1095 1978 8 104612518 3 1096 2215 8 104715150 3 1097 2616 8 104819083 3 1098 3933 8 1049 2304 4 1099 6173 8 1050 4409 4 11 013309 8 Fi g u r e A3:11-8 WINNIPEG: "GAMMA" C a l i b r a t i o n Data 701 0000 GAMMA CALIBRATION 0000 "MODEL" Dwellings 30 1 20 17 1 3035 1 1 7 98 1 3069 1 15 96 2 30 2 36 30 1 3036 1 20 100 1 3070 119 99 2 30 3 42 35 1 3037 124 1 04 1 3071 123 103 2 30 4 46 39 1 3038 128 1 07 1 3072 1 29 108 2 30 5 50 41 1 3039 1 32 1 1 1 1 3073 1 37 1 1 4 2 30 6 53 44 1 3040 1 37 1 1 5 1 3074 1 48 1 24 2 30 7 56 47 1 3041 144 121 1 3075 201 168 2 30 8 59 49 1 3042 1 53 128 1 3076 27 23 3 30 9 61 51 1 3043 1 87 1 57 1 3077 56 47 3 3010 64 53 1 3044 30 25 2 3078 72 60 3 301 1 66 55 1 3045 44 37 • 2 3079 83 70 3 301 2 68 57 1 3046 50 42 2 3080 94 78 3 301 3 70 59 1 3047 55 46 2 3081 1 02 86 3 301 4 73 61 1 3048 58 49 2 3082 1 1 3 94 3 301 5 74 62 1 3049 62 52 2 3083 1 27 106 3 301 6 76 64 1 3050 65 54 2 3084 159 1 33 3 301 7 78 65 1 3051 67 56 2 3085 32 27 4 3018 80 67 1 3052 70 58 2 3086 53 44 4 301 9 82 69 1 3053 72 60 2 3087 64 53 4 3020 84 70 1 3054 74 62 2 3088 72 60 4 3021 86 72 1 3055 77 64 2 3089 78 65 4 3022 88 73 1 3056 79 66 2 3090 84 70 4 3023 89 75 1 3057 81 68 2 3091 89 75 4 3024 91 76 1 3058 84 70 2 3092 95 80 4 3025 93 78 1 3059 86 72 2 3093 101 85 4 3026 95 79 1 3060 88 74 2 3094 108 91 4 3027 97 81 1 3061 91 76 2 3095 1 18 99 4 3028 99 83 1 3062 93 78 2 3096 131 1 1 0 4 3029 101 85 1 3063 96 80 2 3097 1 68 1 40 4 3030 103 86 1 3064 99 83 2 3098 62 52 5 3031 106 88 1 3065 1 02 85 2 3099 98 82 5 3032 1 08 91 1 3066 1 05 87 2 31 0 1 44 120 5 3033 1 1 1 93 1 3067 1 08 90 2 3034 1 1 4 95 1 3068 1 1 1 93 2 0000 ZONAL DATA 40 1 7793 38 40 211353 60 40 3 6594 21 40 410572 104 40 515270 110 40 6 9381 54 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n Data 70 11.2880.0740.3480.0560.1170.1160.0680.1210.101 77921.000 89.8 70 21.3390.0810.4730.0540.1350.0950.0300.0700.062113521.000 91.1 70 31.2100.0740.3390.0420.0770.1260.0440.1590.139 65931.000 92.5 70 41.3330.1230.6230.0550.0860.0490.0100.0300.024105711.000 91.8 70 51.1700.1310.6140.0600.0890.0490.0170.0250.016J 52921 .000101 .2 70 60.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 00.0 0.0 Fi g u r e A3:11-8A WINNIPEG: "GAMMA" C a l i b r a t i o n Data 702 0000 BETA CALIBRATION 0000 INCOME by TYPE 0000 "MODEL" HOUSEHOLDS 20 1 8776 10 1 1526 1 1051 5854 4 20 211662 10 2 4070 1 1052 7152 4 20 311279 10 3 5987 1 1053 8133 4 20 411494 10 4 7252 1 1054 8648 4 20 5 6666 10 5 8583 1 1055 9421 4 20 6 6836 10 6 9721 1 105610016 4 20 7 7181 10 711221 1 105710920 4 20 8 4167 10 813032 1 105811668 4 10 917884 1 105912454 4 0000 ALPHA by TYPE 1010 99 2 106013470 4 21 1.1531 1011 841 2 106115176 4 21 2.1224 1012 2835 2 106216947 4 21 3.1211 1013 4149 2 106318995 4 21 4.1073 1014 4931 2 106429789 4 21 5.1790 1015 5981 2 1065 1617 5 21 6.2113 1016 6691 2 1066 2784 5 21 7.1693 1017 7497 2 1067 3590 5 21 8.2763 1018 7973 2 1068 4038 5 1019 8421 2 1069 4729 5 1020 8813 2 1070 6220 5 1021 9366 2 1071 7756 5 1022 9733 2 1072 9937 5 102310025 2 107320044 5 102410476 2 1074 1159 6 102510873 2 1075 2178 6 102611440 2 1076 3624 6 102711793 2 1077 5027 6 102812129 2 1078 7029 6 102912437 2 1079 8503 6 103012799 2 108010715 6 103113455 2 108116512 6 103213856 2 1082 1085 7 103314426 2 1083 1993 7 103415048 2 1084 3332 7 103515609 2 1085 4629 7 103616621 2 1086 5545 7 103717486 2 1087 6242 7 103818728 2 1088 7263 7 103921262 2 1089 8404 7 104025012 2 109010060 7 104132518 2 109112075 7 1042 4355 3 109219192 7 1043 7724 3 1093 1157 8 1044 9406 3 1094 1844 8 104510884 3 1095 1978 8 104612518 3 1096 2215 8 104715150 3 1097 2616 8 104819083 3 1098 3933 8 - 1049 2304 4 1099 6173 8 1050 4409 4 11 013309 8 F i g u r e A3:12-8 WINNIPEG: "BETA" C a l i b r a t i o n Data 703 0000 BETA CALIBRATION 0000 "MODEL" Dwellings 30 .1 21 1 3035 120 1 3069 92 3 30 2 35 1 3036 125 1 3070 1 06 3 30 3 43 1 3037 1 37 1 3071 1 44 3 30 4 50 1 3038 184 1 3072 37 4 30 5 55 1 3039 37 2 3073 66 4 30 6 58 1 3040 53 2 3074 83 4 30 7 60 1 3041 60 2 3075 100 4 30 8 62 1 3042 65 2 3076 1 18 4 30 9 64 1 3043 70 2 3077 1 66 4 3010 65 1 3044 74 2 3078 124 5 301 1 67 1 3045 78 2 3012 69 1 3046 81 2 3013 70 1 3047 83 2 301 4 72 1 3048 86 2 301 5 73 1 3049 89 2 3016 74 1 3050 91 2 3017 76 1 3051 94 2 3018 77 1 3052 97 2 3019 78 1 3053 1 00 2 3020 80 1 3054 103 2 3021 82 1 3055 106 2 3022 83 1 3056 109 2 3023 85 1 3057 1 1 3 2 3024 87 1 3058 1 19 2 3025 89 1 3059 125 2 3026 91 1 3060 1 33 2 3027 93 1 3061 1 49 2 3028 95 1 3062 214 2 3029 98 1 3063 23 3 3030 101 1 3064 44 3 3031 104 1 3065 56 3 3032 108 1 3066 67 3 3033 111 1 3067 75 3 3034 115 1 3068 83 3 0000 ZONAL DATA 40 1 7793 38 40 211353 60 40 3 6594 21 40 410572 104 40 515270 1 10 40 6 9381 54 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n Data 70 11.2650.0730.3490.0540.1160.1190.0670.1220.101 77570.998 89.7 70 21.3730.0750.4740.0490.1350.1040.0270.0690.067114730.933 83.8 70' 31.1940.0750.3440.0430.0760.1280.0430.1550.137 66080.866 95.0 70 41.3980.1130.6020.0530.0940.0620.0100.0340.032102161.000 82.0 70 51.1440.1170.6210.0540.0920.0630.0130.0220.019186721.000 96.7 70 61.4100.1050.4940.0620.1110.0670.0380.0710.053103311.000109.9 F i g u r e A3:12-8A WINNIPEG: "BETA" C a l i b r a t i o n Data 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" HOUSEHOLDS and BASE 10 1 1526 1 400 .930 40. 3 10 2 4070 1 161 .186 63. 0 10 3 5987 1 471 .325 74. 9 10 4 7252 1 501 .355 83. 1 10 5 8583 1 751 .364 91 . 6 10 6 9721 1 9991 .410 97. 1 10 711221 1 361 .285111. 0 10 813032 1 601 .319119. 7 10 917884 1 9991 .410139. 9 1010 99 2 00 .0 0. 0 1011 841 2 640 .701 29. 8 1012 2835 2 41 1 .054 48. 3 1013 4149 2 121 . 1 49 57. 9 1014 4931 2 671 . 1 72 63. 5 1015 5981 2 201 .232 69. 5 1016 6691 2 681 .269 73. 2 1017 7497 2 481 .310 77. 1 1018 7973 2 491 .313 79. 9 1019 8421 2 9991 .410 79. 8 1020 8813 2 9991 .410 82. 0 1021 9366 2 521 .327 87. 6 1022 9733 2 9991 .410 87. 0 102310025 2 531 .340 90. 8 102410476 2 701 .300 94. 7 102510873 2 331 .270 98. 0 102611440 2 9991 .410 95. 9 102711793 2 9991 .410 97. 6 102812129 2 9991 .410 99. 3 102912437 2 9991 .410100. 8 103012799 2 9991 .410102. 5 103113455 2 581 .344108. 2 103213856 2 9991 .410107. 5 103314426 2 9991 .410110. 2 103415048 2 9991 .410113. 0 103515609 2 371 .278121. 3 103616621 2 9991 .410120. 0 103717486 2 71 1 .301128. 7 103818728 2 9991 .410128. 9 103921262 2 9991 .410139. 1 104025012 2 9991 .410153. 3 104132518 2 621 .271189. 0 1042 4355 3 731 .206 56. 7 1043 7724 3 241 .288 77. 3 1044 9406 3 51 1 .340 85. 3 104510884 3 541 .335 93. 3 104612518 3 9991 .410 98. 8 104715150 3 9991 .410110. 8 104819083 3 9991 .410127. 2 1049 2304 4 50 .885 40. 9 1050 4409 4 91 .118 53. 0 704 DATA 051 5854 4 431 .210 60. 3 052 7152 4 441 .289 65. 8 053 8133 4 221 .243 72. 4 054 8648 4 461 .320 72. 9 055 9421 4 741 .355 75. 8 05610016 4 271 .256 81. 6 05710920 4 9991 .410 81. 2 05811668 4 301 .268 89. 0 05912454 4 9991 .410 87. 9 06013470 4 551 .316 95. 3 06115176 4 9991 .410 99. 0 06216947 4 761 .356107. 8 06318995 4 781 .381114. 4 06429789 4 9991 .410148. 4 065 1617 5 60 .928 44. 0 066 2784 5 101 .133 54. 1 067 3590 5 151 .172 61 . 8 068 4038 5 181 .191 65. 8 069 4729 5 451 .286 69. 3 070 6220 5 691 .285 81. 7 071 7756 5 31 1 .297 92. 8 072 9937 5 351 .304107. 4 07320044 5 9991 .410157. 0 074 1159 6 650 .946 42. 9 075 2178 6 421 .168 55. 0 076 3624 6 21 1 .249 71. 7 077 5027 6 281 .307 85. 1 078 7029 6 341 .319103. 5 079 8503 6 591 .357114. 2 08010715 6 61 1 .312133. 8 08116512 6 9991 .410166. 6 082 1085 7 40 .829 36. 2 083 1993 7 80 .955 47. 7 084 '3332 7 131 .140 58. 5 085 4629 7 191 .239 68. 0 086 5545 7 231 .266 74. 9 087 6242 7 251 .296 79. 4 088 7263 7 291 .289 87. 2 089 8404 7 321 .278 95. 6 09010060 7 571 .356103. 2 09112075 7 9991 .410112. 8 09219192 7 771 .359151. 9 093 1157 8 70 .961 46. 3 094 1844 8 1 1 1 .116 55. 4 095 1978 8 661 .158 56. 4 096 2215 8 141 .154 60. 5 097 2616 8 171 .202 65. 2 098 3933 8 261 .272 80. 4 099 6173 8 561 .377100. 4 10013309 8 381 .303164. 6 F i g u r e A3:13-8 WINNIPEG: P o l i c y Dataset 705 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" DWELLINGS 30 1 21 1 3035 120 1 3069 92 3 30 2 35 1 3036 125 1 3070 106 3 30 3 43 1 3037 1 37 1 3071 144 3 30 4 50 1 3038 184 1 3072 37 4 30 5 55 1 3039 37 2 3073 66 4 30 6 58 1 3040 53 2 3074 83 4 30 7 60 1 3041 60 2 3075 100 4 30 8 62 1 3042 65 2 3076 118 4 30 9 64 1 3043 70 2 3077 1 66 4 3010 65 1 3044 74 2 3078 1 24 5 301 1 67 1 3045 78 2 301 2 69 1 3046 81 2 301 3 70 1 3047 83 2 3014 72 1 3048 86 2 301 5 73 1 3049 89 2 3016 74 1 3050 91 2 301 7 76 1 3051 94 2 3018 77 1 3052 97 2 3019 78 1 3053 1 00 2 3020 80 1 3054 1 03 2 3021 82 1 3055 106 2 3022 83 1 3056 109 2 3023 85 1 3057 1 1 3 2 3024 87 1 3058 1 19 2 3025 89 1 3059 1 25 2 3026 91 1 3060 1 33 2 3027 93 1 3061 1 49 2 3028 95 1 3062 214 2 3029 98 1 3063 23 3 3030 101 1 3064 44 3 3031 104 1 3065 56 3 3032 108 1 3066 67 3 3033 111 1 3067 75 3 3034 115 1 3068 83 3 0000 INCOME by TYPE 0000 ALPHA by TYPE 0000 ZONAL DAT 20 1 8776 21 1 . 1 531 40 1 61 36 38 20 211662 21 2. 1 224 40 2 9525 60 20 311279 21 3. 1211 40 3 651 5 21 20 411494 21 4. 1 073 40 412250 1 04 20 5 6666 21 5. 1 790 40 519889 1 10 20 6 6836 21 6. 2113 40 615661 54 20 7 7181 21 7. 1 693 20 8 41 67 21 8. 2763 F i g u r e A3:13-8(cont) WINNIPEG: P o l i c y Dataset RENTAL MODEL OWNER-OCCUPIER MODEL CONSTANT 2.0054 0.6901 (15.0) (3.07) BATH 0.0454 na (0.33) TOILET 0.1414 0.4524 (1.08) (4.08) SUBSIDIS -.2397 0.0744 (9.12) (0.96) LNLIVING 0.1775 0.2318 (5.72) (5.27) LNINCOM 0.1402 0.2428 (11.0) (12.1) TYPE -.0200 -. 1485 (1.38) (4.38) LNDIST -.0008 -.0279 (0.12) (2.91) B5160 -.0798 -.0743 (4.14) (2.87) B4650 -.0861 -.1289 (2.98) (2.87) B21 45 -.1539 -.1934 (7.99) (4.41) BPRE20 -.2067 -.3548 (9.95) (11.9) LGLVSIZE 0.2450 0.2146 (10.4) (6.58) LGBDSIZE 0.0624 0.0920 (11.2) (6.72) OPENSP -.0159 0.0534 (0.96) (1.62) HIGHDEN 0.0179 -.0632 (1.30) (1.18) COMMERC -.0332 na (2.42) NEIGHBD 0.0298 na (1.77) FINANCE -.0542 -.0721 (3.89) (3.20) AMRATE na 0.0687 (13.4) R2 0.59 0.52 Observat ions 1305 1 183 note: " t " s t a t i s t i c s i n b r a c k e t s : data source: WIN.REG02 Fi g u r e A3:14-8 WINNIPEG: 1971 Hedonic Estimates f o r Tra n s l o g s 707 t r a n s l o g v a r i a b l e s TYPE 1 mean min max TYPE 2 mean min max TYPE 3 mean min max TYPE 4 mean min max TYPE 5 mean min max TYPE 6 mean min max TYPE 7 mean min max TYPE 8 mean min max TYPE 9 mean min max TYPE 10 mean min max M 375.5 88.3 2860.7 439.5 46.7 1863.4 737.5 142.9 1 934.4 493.3 97.2 1803.8 702.9 1 57. 1 1 747.4 651 .5 108.8 2686.8 665. 1 1 58.7 1 667.9 1028.7 241 .8 2777.2 858.9 212.6 2623.6 1034.0 163.7 2325.1 ph*XH 113.1 24.7 397.4 111.0 20.6 288.6 129. 1 33.0 329.8 121.0 45.3 263.8 131.5 33.8 234. 1 239.6 27.9 1 254.9 221 .2 63.9 548.8 231 . 1 50.2 709. 1 249. 1 76.8 1285.0 239.9 59.0 694.8 ph .429 .368 .536 .431 .366 .533 .431 .366 .533 .429 .367 .533 .429 .365 .509 ,646 .355 .765 656 362 809 643 245 809 705 369 875 .658 .344 .831 P9 .289 .289 .289 289 289 289 289 289 289 .289 .289 .289 .289 .289 .289 .289 .289 .289 .289 .289 .289 .289 .289 .289 .289 .289 .289 .289 .289 .289 ph*XH M 0.3885 0.0755 0.9410 0.3229 0.0540 0.9723 0.2056 0.0444 0.8961 0.3091 0.0466 0.9553 0.2193 0.0717 0.9395 0.4264 0.0939 0.9839 0.3645 0.0927 0.8995 0.2395 0.0540 0.8272 0.3025 0.0959 0.8778 0.2457 0.0359 0.9829 Fi g u r e A3:15-8 WINNIPEG : T r a n s l o g Input V a r i a b l e s S t a t i s t i c s 4 A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.3180 -.1872 0.2120 0.0717 0.0094 79.1 203.5 375.5 202 (169.) (26.3) (53.0) (3.90) (1.62) 2 -.2689 -.1638 0.2073 0.0597 0.0146 77.5 254.8 439.5 373 (182.) (25.1) (59.0) (2.87) (3.09) 3 -.1822 -.1029 0.1467 0.2264 -.0678 90.2 472.0 737.5 373 (238.) (21.0) (70.9) (11.8) (20.6) 4 -.2605 -.1744 0.1998 0.0087 0.0118 84.5 288.9 493.3 192 (143.) (14.9) (43.3) (0.22) (1.96) v 5 -.1950 -.1206 0.1671 0.2338 -.0146 92.0 443.2 702.9 165 (144.) (9.56) (44.2) (4.22) (2.68) 6 -.3839 -.2073 0.2333 0.0095 0.0503 145.4 319.6 651.5 229 (170.) (24.3) (50.9) (0.53) (7.87) 7 -.3392 -.1822 0.2180 0.0819 0.0034 133.4 344.4 665.1 118 (205.) (20.3) (39.5) (3.61) (0.43) 8 -.2298 -.1333 0.1561 0.1445 -.0871 140.6 618.8 1028.7 231 (246.) (31.0) (38.4) (8.64) (10.2) 9 -.2936 -.1573 0.1943 0.1453 -.0294 145.7 473.0 858.9 252 (339.) (28.6) (55.0) (9.66) (5.44) 10 -.2383 -.1231 0.1862 0.2033 0.0186 144.9 616.0 1034.0 353 (253.) (24.1) (61.1) (11.8) (4.03) note: [1] " t " val u e s i n bracke t s [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:16-8 WINNIPEG : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x penditure Share [ a l l income l e v e l s ] A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.4359 -.1818 0.2697 0.1177 0.0911 66.7 99.1 223.3 132 (237.) (17.8) (44.3) (4.66) (10.5) 2 -.3884 -.1606 0.2755 0.1249 0.1022 69.5 129.3 266.2 199 (212.) (17.6) (44.4) (4.98) (11.9) 3 -.2399 -.1116 0.1948 0.2289 -.0114 84.8 309.0 519.9 197 (283.) (20.8) (57.5) (13.1) (2.27) 4 -.3674 -.1343 0.2649 0.1638 0.0936 73.8 149.3 297.9 101 (161.) (7.68) (34.7) (3.42) (9.15) 5 -.2473 -.0950 0.2191 0.3464 0.0520 84.7 294.9 501.3 91 (153.) (7.52) (34.9) (7.60) (6.18) 6 -.4786 -.1968 0.3017 0.0435 0.1451 121.8 176.0 427.3 147 (226.) (20.6) (39.2) (2.19) (13.9) 7 -.3945 -.1904 0.2651 0.0601 0.0686 109.3 221.6 466.9 62 (187.) (15.9) (28.8) (2.31) (5.27) 8 -.2632 -.1414 0.1764 0.1317 -.0603 120.7 443.4 770.6 121 (183.) (19.2) (18.1) (4.70) (3.01) 9 -.3163 -.1564 0.2248 0.1465 0.0145 121.8 353.4 662.6 138 (264.) (19.3) (34.5) (7.64) (1.57) 10 -.2629 -.1123 0.2255 0.2591 0.0676 123.5 454.7 790.0 189 (212.) (13.8) (42.5) (9.80) (9.26) note: [1] " t " values i n brackets [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:17-8 WINNIPEG : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [below mean income] A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 1 -.2224 (306. ) 2 -.1945 (512. ) 3 -.1407 (501 . ) 4 -.1945 (338. ) 5 -.1520 (378. ) 6 -.3028 (122.) 7 -.3017 (218. ) 8 -.2039 (249. ) 9 -.2730 (333. ) 10 -.2173 (278. ) B11 B12 -.1137 0.1214 (32.7) (29.8) -.0917 0.0889 (36.1) (23.2) -.0778 0.0661 (26.3) (17.9) -.1035 0.0825 (18.4) (14.4) -.0918 0.0709 (13.5) (13.5) -.1672 0.1827 (15.8) (22.1) -.1560 0.1559 (11.6) (9.46) -.0973 0.1239 (22.7) (19.2) -.1270 0.1300 (23.0) (14.4) -.1281 0.1071 (22.1) (10.2) BM1 BM2 0.2384 -.2115 (16.3) (15.2) 0.2989 -.3253 (23.5) (18.6) 0.2641 -.3656 (12.6) (14.7) 0.2549 -.3509 (9.65) (13.5) 0.2477 -.3805 (6.17) (11.2) 0.1019 0.0097 (3.75) (0.56) 0.1507 -.1391 (3.03) (2.74) 0.2824 -.1527 (16.6) (6.35) 0.2349 -.2223 (14.5) (7.74) 0.1377 -.2258 (5.27) (5.08) MQH MQX 102.4 400.5 86.7 398.5 96.3 654.5 96.4 443.8 100.9 625.7 187.8 576.9 160.1 480.2 162.4 811.6 174.8 617.9 169.5 802.0 ME # 662.5 70 637.7 174 981.1 176 710.3 91 950.8 74 1053.5 82 884.5 56 1312.5 110 1096.4 114 1315.1 164 note: [1] " t " values i n brackets [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:18-8 WINNIPEG : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [above mean income] A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.5353 -.1659 0.3262 0.1319 0.1805 60.0 58.4 161.1 76 (263.) (17.4) (30.8) (7.33) (13.2) 2 -.5425 -.1602 0.3393 0.1114 0.1993 63.0 60.3 167.9 96 (224.) (13.3) (37.7) (4.19) (16.7) 3 -.3067 -.1076 0.2459 0.2600 0.0533 .81.3 210.4 387.7 88 (259.) (13.9) (39.7) (10.3) (6.12) 4 -.4980 -.2334 0.3147 -.0339 0.1622 69.8 80.0 202.5 49 (193.) (7.18) (22.9) (0.50) (9.18) 5 -.3092 -.0839 0.2725 0.3532 0.1162 82.2 209.0 386.9 44 (133.) (5.85) (24.3) (8.07) (8.53) 6 -.5735 -.1744 0.3497 0.0632 0.2216 109.0 104.6 313.7 73 (197.) (13.8) (26.3) (2.57) (12.6) 7 -.4845 -.1761 0.3061 0.0715 0.1343 96.6 136.1 337.2 26 (165.) (12.0) (22.5) (2.52) (6.95) 8 -.3115 -.1897 0.1965 0.0384 -.0468 108.5 315.6 585.6 49 (140.) (17.9) (14.1) (1.23) (1.68) 9 -.3568 -.2208 0.2536 -.0091 0.0503 109.6 266.8 529.7 59 (198.) (8.01) (18.7) (0.12) (2.63) 10 -.2992 -.1509 0.2561 0.1634 0.1109 108.8 338.6 615.4 78 (138.) (9.81) (28.3) (3.82) (9.60) note: [1] " t " values i n b r a c k e t s [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3: 1 9 - 8 WINNIPEG : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x penditure Share [ q u a r t i l e 0 1 ] SHARE = A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE 1 10 A1 -.3552 (293.) -.3030 (468.) -.2017 (430.) -.2855 (338. ) -.2052 (385.) -.4143 (229.) -.3504 (188.) -.2373 (210.) -.2941 (245.) -.2438 (269.) B1 1 -.1449 10.7) . 1254 26.6) .091 3 14.9) . 1 357 13.9) . 1 074 13.8) . 1 793 13.4) .2372 10.4) .0998 11.5) . 1 322 10.0) . 1 189 14.7) B1 2 0.2386 (15.5) 0.1905 (23.6) 0.1684 (16.8) 0.1169 (8.47) 0.0910 (4.64) 0.2670 (16.4) 0.1391 (4.56) 0.1382 (4.17) 0.2432 (10.0) 0.1324 (5.29) BM1 0.2127 (5.30) 0.2545 (13.9) 0.3099 (9.59) 0.2130 (6.11) 0.2520 (7.46) 0.0980 (3.09) -.1146 ( 1 .57) 0.2766 (6.73) 0.2090 (4.70) 0.2040 (6.44) BM2 0.0432 (1.31) -.0524 (2.77) 0.0058 (0.14) -.2838 (6.81 ) -.3038 (3.45) 0.0868 (3.34) -.2434 (3.17) -.2206 (1.92) 0.0610 (1.00) -.2276 (2.79) MQH 75.8 75.6 87.7 77.5 87.2 1 34.4 118.4 129.0 130.9 133.8 MQX 1 54.4 1 93.6 388.7 214.5 375.4 246.5 283.4 530.4 418.0 536.3 ME # 307.6 56 357.7 103 626.6 109 387.7 52 608.4 47 539.4 74 560.6 36 896.5 72 761.9 79 912.8 111 note: [1] " t " values i n brackets [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:20-8 WINNIPEG : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [ q u a r t i l e 02] A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG SHARE = -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.2599 -.1210 0.1523 0.2360 -.1572 90.7 287.6 500.3 47 (297.) (22.3) (10.8) (9.60) (3.52) 2 -.2161 -.0910 0.1030 0.3504 -.2943 80.4 322.9 531.4 103 (424.) (16.5) (6.41) (11.6) (4.54) 3 -.1613 -.0852 0.0923 0.2782 -.2700 94.0 544.0 835.4 108 (436.) (16.6) (6.28) (8.20) (3.24) 4 -.2169 -.1127 0.1197 0.2504 -.2431 92.9 374.1 615.6 60 (299.) (16.4) (6.32) (8.66) (3.24) 5 -.1779 -.0998 0.1008 0.2492 -.3065 101.6 523.4 820.3 43 (344.) (9.91) (3.94) (4.49) (2.39) 6 -.3078 -.1016 0.2503 0.3494 0.1559 154.4 442.1 822.4 55 (145.) (5.39) (12.3) (5.83) (3.33) 7 -.3367 -.1945 0.1552 0.0277 -.2201 155.2 395.4 766.6 35 (187.) (7.38) (3.13) (0.30) (1.54) 8 -.2125 -.0739 0.2324 0.3816 0.1671 148.6 698.3 1142.7 68 (210.) (7.94) (8.56) (7.53) (1.63) 9 -.2802 -.1369 0.1412 0.1664 -.2621 157.7 535.5 958.4 73 (305.) (8.87) (4.04) (2.97) (2.39) 10 -.2265 -.1539 0.0787 0.0171 -.4408 154.6 690.5 1145.8 103 (246.) (12.6) (2.26) (0.31) (3.14) note: [1] " t " values in bracke t s [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:21-8 WINNIPEG : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x p e n d i t u r e Share [ q u a r t i l e 03] SHARE = A1 + B11 * lnXH + B12 * lnXG -1. + BM1 * lnXH + BM2 * lnXG TYPE A1 B11 B12 BM1 BM2 MQH MQX ME # 1 -.1823 -.0968 0.1091 0.2764 -.2226 126.2 631.1 993.8 23 (228.) (22.9) (13.6) (10.9) (6.20) 2 -.1737 -.0881 0.0911 0.2775 -.2792 95.7 508.0 791.9 71 (354.) (24.7) (13.3) (15.2) (7.25) 3 -.1181 -.0595 0.0601 0.3348 -.3511 99.8 830.1 1212.6 68 (333.) (14.7) (8.56) (10.7) (5.93) 4 -.1643 -.0705 0.0623 0.4100 -.4133 103.1 578.8 893.6 31 (241.) (8.78) (7.95) (9.65) (8.46) 5 -.1262 -.0683 0.0720 0.3766 -.2555 99.9 767.5 1131.7 31 (303.) (9.93) (8.91) (8.39) (3.79) 6 -.2847 -.1298 0.1739 0.2312 0.0365 256.0 851.5 1524.3 27 (92.2) (12.6) (16.7) (8.64) (2.48) 7 -.2584 -.1233 0.1234 0.2523 -.2503 168.2 621.7 1081.0 21 (154.) (8.99) (6.09) (4.73) (3.82) 8 -.1923 -.1014 0.0955 0.2575 -.3145 184.8 995.1 1587.6 42 (176.) (13.2) (7.67) (8.44) (5.23) 9 -.2648 -.1286 0.1352 0.2247 -.2165 205.2 764.7 1342.2 41 (192.) (20.1) (9.98) (12.0) (5.79) 10 -.2036 -.1021 0.0810 0.2535 -.3358 194.8 990.2 1601.1 61 (173.) (12.3) (4.36) (6.29) (4.19) note: [1] " t " values i n b r a c k e t s [2] MQH i s the mean q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s MQX i s the mean q u a n t i t y of other goods and s e r v i c e s ME i s the mean expenditure # i s the number of o b s e r v a t i o n s F i g u r e A3:22-8 WINNIPEG : D i r e c t T r a n s l o g - E x penditure Share [ q u a r t i l e 04] 715 income e l a s t i c i t y mean below above TYPE 1 Q01 0.7871 0.7981 0.8096 Q02 0.5941 0.6303 0.6321 Q03 0.4883 0.4936 0.4945 Q04 0.3705 0.3803 0.3847 TYPE 2 Q01 0.7723 0.7807 0.7952 Q02 0.5389 0.5655 0.5735 Q03 0.4560 0.4666 0.4676 Q04 0.3619 0.3586 0.3581 TYPE 3 Q01 0.5443 0.5565 0.5550 Q02 0.3978 0.4208 0.4214 Q03 0.3399 0.3379 0.3376 Q04 0.2678 0.2639 0.2630 TYPE 4 Q01 0.7023 0.7037 0.7053 Q02 0.5410 0.5298 0.5308 Q03 0.4382 0.4354 0.4352 Q04 0.3844 0.3913 0.3940 TYPE 5 Q01 0.5717 0.6077 0.5985 Q02 0.4156 0.4139 0.4134 Q03 0.3776 0.3684 0.3637 Q04 0.2813 0.3065 0.3118 TYPE 6 Q01 0.7811 0.7833 0.8037 Q02 0.6421 0.6524 0.6568 Q03 0.5272 0.6228 0.6278 Q04 0.4466 0.5172 0.5863 TYPE 7 Q01 0.7028 0.7059 0.7099 Q02 0.5494 0.5253 0.5218 Q03 0.5710 0.5513 0.5322 Q04 0.5047 0.5054 0.5054 TYPE 8 Q01 0.521 1 0.5180 0.5174 Q02 0.4659 0.4622 0.4602 Q03 0.4209 0.4494 0.4675 Q04 0.4026 0.3928 0.3886 TYPE 9 Q01 0.5712 0.5698 0.5684 Q02 0.5264 0.5314 0.5398 Q03 0.5144 0.4984 0.4931 Q04 0.5043 0.5035 0.5018 TYPE 10 Q01 0.5231 0.5336 0.5353 Q02 0.4590 0.4526 0.4499 Q03 0.4121 0.3830 0.3830 Q04 0.4137 0.4052 0.4051 p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y mean below above 0.9918 1.0026 1.0118 1.0038 -1 .4572 -1.2154 -1.2429 -1.4171 -0.7533 -0.8522 -0.8254 -0.5488 1.0095 1.0041 0.9989 1.0053 -1.6686 -1.2561 -1.1308 -1.1933 -0.6549 -0.8548 -0.8858 -0.7884 1.0518 1.0164 1 .0076 1.0048 -1.5319 -1.1181 -1.0976 -1.1780 -0.8758 -0.9088 -0.9109 -0.8005 1 .0170 0.9993 1.0055 0.9901 -1.8446 -1.1832 -1.1402 -1.2172 -0.6848 -0.8241 -0.9093 -0.7168 •1 .0516 0.9954 •1.0126 •0.9899 -1.4887 -1.1580 -1.1729 -1.1228 -0.8871 -0.9054 -0.9079 -0.8058 •1.0119 •1.0151 •0.991 4 •0.9748 -1.8587 -1.2286 -1.1423 -1 .3013 -0.7108 -0.8476 -0.8365 -0.5665 •1 .0267 •1 .0306 -1 .0274 -0.9967 -2.0785 -1.2224 -1.1851 -1.1620 -0.6817 -0.8855 -0.8691 -0.7744 •1 .0106 -1 .0280 •1 .0498 -1 .0052 -1.6128 -1.1548 -1.1761 -1.2096 -0.8266 -0.9034 -0.9532 -0.7512 •1 .0221 -1 .0324 -1 .0354 -1 .001 3 -1.5756 -1 . 1872 -1.1456 -1.3293 -0.8026 -0.8857 -0.9221 -0.6232 -1 .0340 -1 .0232 -1.0304 -0.9966 -1.5541 -1.1406 -1.1147 -1.1415 -0.8453 -0.9182 -0.9423 -0.8180 F i g u r e A3:23-8 WINNIPEG :Income and P r i c e E l a s t i c i t i e s 716 ALL BELOW ABOVE Q01 Q02 Q03 Q04 TYPE 1 normal 475.02 349.83 272.74 221.08 193.39 182.38 100.46 BM1=BM2=0 468.89 303.68 199.01 170.62 170.97 142.38 67.15 s t a t i s t i c 12.27 92.30 147.46 100.92 44.85 79.99 66.63 TYPE 2 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 832. 1 3 824.45 1 5.35 473.90 408.30 131.21 712.76 549.41 326.70 240.61 178. 19 124.83 385.61 296.97 177.28 413.85 321.84 184.03 303.66 233.32 140.69 TYPE 3 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 1060.04 903. 16 313.76 605.41 544.71 121.40 760.28 600.04 320.50 279.26 246.70 65. 1.4 430.97 321.56 218.82 461.62 398.75 125.73 311 .03 250.98 120. 1 1 TYPE 4 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 446.65 444.57 4.16 251.19 219.06 64.25 358.35 266.21 184.27 134.88 96.90 75.95 203.76 147.21 113.10 239.18 205.75 66.86 135.29 96.90 76.78 TYPE 5 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 441.38 423. 17 36.42 260.41 233.27 54.29 332.92 280.69 104.44 128.93 100.22 57.42 205.58 172.59 65.99 191.12 180.05 22. 13 152.30 130.57 43.46 TYPE 6 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i st i c 485.26 453.84 62.84 359.64 276.68 165.93 208.75 198.95 1 9.60 182 1 24 1 16 31 26 10 219.26 213.19 12.13 158.97 139.88 38. 18 82.31 64.42 35.78 TYPE 7 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 322.25 315.94 12.60 178.70 165. 17 27.07 186.20 152.72 66.96 80.30 64.40 31 .79 116.30 108.50 15.61 118.55 109.53 18.06 76.65 59.44 34.41 TYPE 8 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 669.94 572. 11 195.65 339.93 298.39 83.08 381.98 296. 1 5 171.65 141.09 134.91 12.37 246.26 205.25 82.02 238.85 192.85 92.01 157.69 126.54 62.31 TYPE 9 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 754.68 707.24 94.88 411.12 387.88 46.48 404.37 341.18 126.37 176.62 170.27 12.71 261.27 231.32 59.91 264.90 244.95 39.89 147.06 114.38 65.35 TYPE 1 0 normal BM1=BM2=0 s t a t i s t i c 951.96 885.17 133.58 527.40 452.59 149.62 537.74. 451.84 171.79 212.34 169.03 86.63 378.59 328.58 100.01 348.28 308.50 79.54 210.68 163.80 93.76 F i g u r e A3:24-8 WINNIPEG : Log L i k e l i h o o d V a l u e s : [ t e s t of u n i t y income e l a s t i c i t y ] 0000 Demand C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL" MODIFIED HOUSEHOLDS 0 1 1305 1 -515 0 105119076 616618 6180 0 2 1919 1 188 12 1052 3266 7 811 207 0 3 2217 1 1 30 52 1053 5486 7 3016 622 0 4 31 32 1 462 127 1054 6698 7 4314 966 0 5 4171 1 1357 284 1055 8127 7 5794 141 1 0 6 8259 1 7305 2614 1056 9034 7 6016 1489 0 7 845 2 -239 0 105710272 7 7441 2002 0 8 1558 2 491 64 105812663 711355 3873 0 9 1860 2 754 179 1059 5604 8 2539 573 010 2470 2 1 502 325 1060 7931 8 5009 1 1 57 011 3406 2 2342 442 1061 9128 8 6350 1499 012 4159 2 31 68 637 1062 9957 8 7162 1801 013 4787 2 4244 926 106310562 8 8017 1927 014 5505 2 5008 1 1 59 106411215 8 8984 2122 015 6098 2 5798' 1404 106511960 8 9690 2487 016 6944 2 671 1 1728 106612902 81 0585 2709 017 8111 2 8081 2244 106713859 812330 321 0 01810758 212915 4718 106815103 813685 3677 019 3207 3 1116 278 106916436 815051 4429 020 4905 3 2876 570 107023718 82771611097 021 6095 3 4330 912 1071 2276 9 -593 94 022 71 33 3 5713 1254 1072 5437 9 2356 496 023 7670 3 6357 1366 1073 7193 9 3873 833 024 8685 3 7518 1626 1074 8045 9 4635 1050 025 9380 3 8386 1 948 1075 8680 9 5827 1 431 02610153 3 9337 2191 1076 9407 9 6242 1 562 02711163 310751 2624 107710121 9 7225 1912 02812685 312572 3364 107810633 9 7201 1 904 02916138 317446 51 56 107911182 9 8149 2269 030 728 4-•1 084 0 108011967 9 9225 2701 031 2469 4 632 1 44 108112831 910722 3383 032 3830 4 1758 348 108213865 911680 391 4 033 51 53 4 2648 523 108318543 920151 9028 034 671 6 4 4248 944 1084 4868 10 1152 362 035 7962 4 591 1 1 447 1085 7288 10 3875 1015 03611180 411011 3829 1086 8500 10 5370 1308 037 41 70 5 983 296 1087 9379 10 6242 1 568 038 6355 5 3936 839 108810160 10 6814 1 640 039 7899 5 5601 1281 108910654 10 7631 1841 040 9803 5 7990 2072 109011068 10 7996 2045 04113268 512576 3505 109111808 10 8856 2324 042 2355 6 -396 1 2 109212338 10 9124 2551 043 3572 6 -370 46 109312806 10 9903 2516 044 4272 6 -273 38 109413236 1010046 2653 045 5164 6 525 1 73 109513692 1010613 2930 046 5937 6 1 1 93 295 109614498 1012768 3729 047 6730 6 1850 377 109715846 1013993 3977 048 7545 6 2566 577 109817135 1015531 4843 049 8683 6 3430 779 109919096 1019074 6643 05010382 6 5772 1448 11 023868 1025577 9440 F i g u r e A3:25-8 WINNIPEG: Demand C a l i b r a t i o n Data 0000 Demand C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 Mean AFTER TAX INCOME by Household TYPE 20 1161.1307.6500.3993.8 20 2167.9357.7531.4791 .9 20 3387.7626.6835.41213. 20 4202.5387.7615.6893.6 20 5386.9608.4820.31132. 20 6313.7539.4822.41524 20 7337.2560.6766.61081 20 8585.6896.51143.1588 20 9529.7761.9958.41342 2010615.4912.81146.1601 0000 Demand PARAMETERS by TYPE 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 01) 21 1 o- .535- . 1 66. 3262. 1319. 180560. 0458. 35161 . 1 1 .430 21 2 0- .543- .160. 3393. 1114. 199363. 0260. 25167. 91 .431 21 3 0- .307- . 1 08. 2459. 2600. 053381 . 29210 .4387. 71 .434 21 4 o- .498- .233. 31 47-.034. 162269. 7980. 02202. 51 .422 21 5 0- .309- .084. 2725. 3532. 116282. 16209 .0386. 91 .430 21 6 0- .574- .174. 3497. 0632. 2216109 .01 04 .6313. 71 .642 21 7 o- .485- .176. 3061 . 0715. 134396. 651 36 .1337. 21 .667 21 8 0- .312- .190. 1965. 0384- :047108 .531 5 .6585. 61 .639 21 9 o- .357- .221 . 2536- .009. 0503109 .6266 .8529. 71 .695 2110 o- .299- .151. 2561 . 1634. 1109108 .8338 .6615. 41 .648 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 02) 22 1 o- .355- .145. 2386. 2127. 043275. 78154 .4307. 61 .430 22 2 o- .303- .125. 1905. 2545- .05275. 61 1 93 .6357. 71 .431 22 3 o- .202- .091 . 1684. 3099. 005887. 66388 .7626. 61 .433 22 4 o- .285- . 1 36. 1 1 69. 21 30-.28477. 53214 .5387. 71 .432 22 5 o- .205- .107. 091 0. 2520- .30487. 16375 .4608. 41 .430 22 6 0- .414- . 1 79. 2670. 0980. 0868134 .4246 .5539. 41 .654 22 7 0- .350- .237. 1391- .115- .243118 .4283 .4560. 61 .650 22 8 o- .237- . 1 00. 1382. 2766- .221129 .0530 .4896. 51 .652 22 9 0- .294- . 1 32. 2432. 2090. 0610130 .9418 .0761. 91 .699 221 0 o- .244- .119. 1 324. 2040- .228133 .8536 .3912. 81 .659 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 03) 23 1 0- .260- .121. 1 523. 2360- . 15790. 68287 .6500. 31 .427 23 2 0- .216- .091 . 1030. 3504- .29480. 45322 .9531. 41 .430 23 3 o- .161- .085. 0923. 2782- .27094. 01 544 .0835. 41 .428 23 4 0- .217- .113. 1 197. 2504- .24392. 93374 .1615. 61 .433 23 5 o- .178- . 1 00. 1008. 2492- .307101 .6523 .4820. 31 .433 23 6 0- .308- . 1 02. 2503. 3494. 1559154 .4442 .1822. 41 .630 23 7 o- .337- .195. 1552. 0277- .220155 .2395 .4766. 61 .654 23 8 0- .213- .074. 2324. 381 6. 1671148 .6698 .31143 • .634 23 9 o- .280- . 1 37. 1412. 1664- .262157 .7535 .5958. 41 .705 231 0 o- .227- . 1 54. 0787. 0171- .441154 .6690 .51146 • .662 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 04) 24 1 0- . 182-.097. 1 091 . 2764- .223126 .2631 .1993. 81 .427 24 2 o- . 1 74-.088. 091 1 . 2775- .27995. 71508 .0791. 91 .433 24 3 o- .118- .059. 0601 . 3348- .35199. 83830 .11213 • .430 24 4 0- . 164-.071 . 0623. 4100- .413103 . 1 578 .8893. 6 .427 24 5 o- . 126-.068. 0720. 3766- .25599. 91767 .51132 .423 24 6 o- .285- . 1 30. 1 739. 231 2. 0365256 .0851 .51524 • .664 24 7 o- .258- . 1 23. 1234. 2523- .250168 .2621 .71081 • .655 24 8 o- . 1 92-.101. 0955. 2575- .315184 .8995 .11588 • .647 24 9 o- .265- .129. 1352. 2247- .216205 .2764 .71342 • .731 241 0 o- .204- . 1 02. 0810. 2535- .336194 .8990 .21601 • .665 F i g u r e A3:25-8(cont) WINNIPEG: Demand C a l i b r a t i o n Data 719 0000 Demand C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL" DWELLINGS 30 1 30 1 1 3035 87 3 1 3069 1 07 2 2 30 2 54 1 1 3036 98 3 1 3070 1 12 2 2 30 3 61 1 1 3037 1 1 1 3 1 3071 1 15 2 2 30 4 66 1 1 3038 1 46 3 1 3072 118 2 2 30 5 70 1 1 3039 77 4 1 3073 121 2 2 30 6 74 1 1 3040 124 4 1 3074 124 2 2 30 7 78 1 1 3041 109 5 1 3075 1 27 2 2 30 8 80 1 1 3042 46 1 2 3076 1 30 2 2 30 9 83 1 1 3043 66 1 2 3077 1 34 2 2 3010 86 1 1 3044 70 1 2 3078 139 2 2 301 1 89 1 1 3045 74 1 2 3079 143 2 2 3012 92 1 1 3046 78 1 2 3080 1 47 2 2 3013 95 1 1 3047 83 1 2 3081 1 52 2 2 3014 99 1 1 3048 87 1 2 3082 162 2 2 3015 1 02 1 1 3049 91 1 2 3083 177 2 2 301 6 1 06 1 1 3050 94 1 2 3084 218 2 2 301 7 1 1 1 1 1 3051 97 1 2 3085 77 3 2 3018 1 15 1 1 3052 100 1 2 3086 1 1 1 3 2 3019 121 1 1 3053 1 03 1 2 3087 151 3 2 3020 1 29 1 1 3054 1 06 1 2 3088 66 4 2 3021 1 48 1 1 3055 109 1 2 3089 95 4 2 3022 51 2 1 3056 1 1 2 1 2 3090 1 09 4 2 3023 69 2 1 3057 1 1 5 1 2 3091 1 18 4 2 3024 78 2 1 3058 1 18 1 2 3092 125 4 2 3025 85 2 1 3059 123 1 2 3093 131 4 2 3026 90 2 1 3060 129 1 2 3094 1 37 4 2 3027 94 2 1 3061 1 36 1 2 3095 1 44 4 2 3028 99 2 1 3062 1 44 1 2 3096 151 4 2 3029 1 04 2 1 3063 1 75 1 2 3097 1 62 4 2 3030 1 10 2 1 3064 62 2 2 3098 1 93 4 2 3031 1 19 2 1 3065 82 2 2 3099 108 5 2 3032 1 45 2 1 3066 91 2 2 31 0 1 77 5 2 3033 41 3 1 3067 97 2 2 3034 76 3 1 3068 1 02 2 2 0000 ZONAL Data 40 1 61 36 38 40 2 9525 60 40 3 6515 21 40 412250 1 04 40 519889 1 10 40 615661 54 0000 Parameters 501 1 .39 501 21 .04 501 3 0.0 5016 .39 501 71 .27 5018 0.0 50201 .289 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n Data 70 1 1 .5680 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 77971 .000 96. 70 21 .6640 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 113521 .000115. 70 31 .4400 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 65931 .000 99. 70 41 .6960 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 105741 .000125. 70 51 .4790 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 • 0.0 0.0 152921 .000131 . 70 60 .0 .0 .0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 00 .0 0. Fi g u r e A3:25-8(cont) WINNIPEG: Demand C a l i b r a t i o n Data 720 0000 Supply C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL" MODIFIED HOUSEHOLDS 0 1 1305 1 -515 0 105119076 616618 6180 0 2 1919 1 188 12 1052 3266 7 811 207 0 3 2217 1 1 30 52 1053 5486 7 3016 622 0 4 3132 1 462 127 1054 6698 7 4314 966 0 5 4171 1 1 357 284 1055 8127 7 5794 1411 0 6 8259 1 7305 261 4 1056 9034 7 6016 1 489 0 7 845 2 -239 0 105710272 7 7441 2002 0 8 1558 2 491 64 105812663 711355 3873 0 9 1860 2 754 1 79 1059 5604 8 2539 573 010 2470 2 1502 325 1060 7931 8 5009 1 157 011 3406 2 2342 442 1061 9128 8 6350 1 499 012 41 59 2 3168 637 1062 9957 8 7162 1801 013 4787 2 4244 926 106310562 8 8017 1927 014 5505 2 5008 1 159 106411215 8 8984 2122 015 6098 2 5798 1 404 106511960 8 9690 2487 016 6944 2 671 1 1 728 106612902 810585 2709 017 8111 2 8081 2244 106713859 812330 321 0 01810758 212915 4718 106815103 813685 3677 019 3207 3 1116 278 106916436 815051 4429 020 4905 3 2876 570 107023718 82771611097 021 6095 3 4330 912 1071 2276 9 -593 94 022 7133 3 571 3 1 254 1072 5437 9 2356 496 023 7670 3 6357 1 366 1073 7193 9 3873 833 024 8685 3 7518 1 626 1074 8045 9 4635 1 050 025 9380 3 8386 1 948 1075 8680 9 5827 1 431 02610153 3 9337 2191 1076 9407 9 6242 1 562 02711163 310751 2624 107710121 9 7225 1912 02812685 312572 3364 107810633 9 7201 1904 02916138 317446 51 56 107911182 9 8149 2269 030 728 4- 1 084 0 108011967 9 9225 2701 031 2469 4 632 1 44 108112831 910722 3383 032 3830 4 1758 348 108213865 911680 3914 033 51 53 4 2648 523 108318543 920151 9028 034 671 6 4 4248 944 1084 4868 10 1152 362 035 7962 4 591 1 1 447 1085 7288 10 3875 1015 03611180 411011 3829 1086 8500 10 5370 1 308 037 41 70 5 983 296 1087 9379 10 6242 1568 038 6355 5 3936 839 108810160 10 6814 1640 039 7899 5 5601 1281 108910654 10 7631 1 841 040 9803 5 7990 2072 109011068 10 7996 2045 04113268 51 2576 3505 109111808 10 8856 2324 042 2355 6 -396 1 2 109212338 10 9124 2551 043 3572 6 -370 46 109312806 10 9903 2516 044 4272 6 -273 38 109413236 1010046 2653 045 5164 6 525 173 109513692 1010613 2930 046 5937 6 1 193 295 109614498 1012768 3729 047 6730 6 1850 377 109715846 1013993 3977 048 7545 6 2566 577 109817135 1015531 4843 049 8683 6 3430 779 109919096 1019074 6643 05010382 6 5772 1 448 11 023868 1025577 9440 F i g u r e A3:26-8 WINNIPEG: Supply C a l i b r a t i o n Data 0000 Supply C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 Mean AFTER TAX INCOME by Household TYPE 20 1161.1307.6500.3993.8 20 2167.9357.7531.4791 .9 20 3387.7626.6835.41213. 20 4202.5387.7615.6893.6 20 5386.9608.4820.31 132. 20 6313.7539.4822.41524 20 7337.2560.6766.61081 20 8585.6896.51143.1588 20 9529.7761.9958.41342 2010615.4912.81146. 1601 0000 Demand PARAMETERS by TYPE 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 01) 21 1 0- .535- . 1 66. 3262. 1319. 180560. 0458. 35161. 1 1 .430 21 2 o- .543- . 1 60. 3393. 1114. 199363. 0260. 25167. 91 .431 21 3 o- .307- .108. 2459. 2600. 053381 . 29210 .4387. 71 .434 21 4 0- .498- .233. 31 47-.034. 162269. 7980. 02202. 51 .422 21 5 o- .309- .084. 2725. 3532. 116282. 1 6209 .0386. 91 .430 21 6 0- .574- . 1 74. 3497. 0632. 2216109 .01 04 .6313. 71 .642 21 7 o- .485- .176. 3061 . 071 5. 134396. 651 36 .1337. 21 .667 21 8 o- .312- .190. 1 965. 0384- .047108 .5315 .6585. 61 .639 21 9 o- .357- .221 . 2536- .009. 0503109 .6266 .8529. 71 .695 2110 o- .299- .151. 2561 . 1634. 1109108 .8338 .6615. 41 .648 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 02) 22 1 o- .355- .145. 2386. 2127. 043275. 78154 .4307. 61 .430 22 2 o- .303- .125. 1 905. 2545- .05275. 61 193 .6357. 71 .431 22 3 0- .202- .091 . 1 684. 3099. 005887. 66388 .7626. 61 .433 22 4 o- .285- . 1 36. 1 1 69. 21 30-.28477. 5321 4 .5387. 71 .432 22 5 0- .205- .107. 0910. 2520- .30487. 1 6375 .4608. 41 .430 22 6 0- .414- . 1 79. 2670. 0980. 0868134 .4246 .5539. 41 .654 22 7 o- .350- .237. 1391- .115- .243118 .4283 .4560. 61 .650 22 8 0- .237- .100. 1 382. 2766- .221129 .0530 .4896. 51 .652 22 9 0- .294- . 1 32. 2432. 2090. 0610130 .9418 .0761. 91 .699 221 0 0- .244- .119. 1 324. 2040- .228133 .8536 .3912. 81 .659 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 03) 23 1 0- .260- .121. 1 523. 2360- .15790. 68287 .6500. 31 .427 23 2 o- .216- .091 . 1 030. 3504- .29480. 45322 .9531. 41 .430 23 3 o- .161- .085. 0923. 2782- .27094. 01 544 .0835. 41 .428 23 4 0- .217- .113. 1 1 97. 2504- .24392. 93374 .1615. 61 .433 23 5 0- .178- . 1 00. 1008. 2492- .307101 .6523 .4820. 31 .433 23 6 o- .308- .102. 2503. 3494. 1559154 .4442 .1822. 41 .630 23 7 o- .337- .195. 1 552. 0277- .220155 .2395 .4766. 61 .654 23 8 0- .213- .074. 2324. 381 6. 1671148 .6698 .31143 • .634 23 9 o- .280- .137. 1412. 1 664-.262157 .7535 .5958. 41 .705 2310 o- .227- . 1 54. 0787. 0171- .441154 .6690 .51146 • .662 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 04) 24 1 0- . 182-.097. 1 091 . 2764- .223126 .2631 .1993. 81 .427 24 2 o- .174- .088. 091 1 . 2775- .27995. 71 508 .0791. 91 .433 24 3 o- .118- .059. 0601 . 3348- .35199. 83830 .11213 • .430 24 4 o- . 1 64-.071 . 0623. 4100- .413103 .1578 .8893. 6 .427 24 5 o- . 1 26-.068. 0720. 3766- .25599. 91767 .51132 .423 24 6 o- .285- . 1 30. 1739. 2312. 0365256 .0851 .51524 • .664 24 7 o- .258- .123. 1 234. 2523- .250168 .2621 .71081 • .655 24- 8 o- . 1 92-.101. 0955. 2575- .315184 .8995 . 11588 • .647 24 9 o- .265- .129. 1352. 2247- .216205 .2764 .71342 • .731 2410 o- .204- . 1 02. 0810. 2535- .336194 .8990 .21601 • .665 F i g u r e A3:26-8(cont) WINNIPEG: Supply C a l i b r a t i o n Data 722 0000 Supply C a l i b r a t i o n 0000 "MODEL DWELLINGS 30 1 31 1 1 3027 47 1 2 3053 88 2 2 30 2 51 1 1 3028 65 1 2 3054 96 2 2 30 3 60 1 1 3029 80 1 2 3055 101 2 2 30 4 66 1 1 3030 84 1 2 3056 103 2 2 30 5 71 1 1 3031 86 1 2 3057 1 06 2 2 30 6 73 1 1 3032 88 1 2 3058 108 2 2 30 7 76 1 1 3033 91 1 2 3059 1 10 2 2 30 8 79 1 1 3034 93 1 2 3060 1 1 3 2 2 30 9 83 1 1 3035 95 1 2 3061 1 1 5 2 2 3010 87 1 1 3036 98 1 2 3062 1 18 2 2 301 1 93 1 1 3037 100 1 2 3063 120 2 2 3012 99 1 1 3038 103 1 2 3064 123 2 2 301 3 109 1 1 3039 105 1 2 3065 128 2 2 301 4 1 39 1 1 3040 1 07 1 2 3066 1 32 2 2 301 5 62 2 1 3041 1 10 1 2 3067 1 37 2 2 301 6 81 2 1 3042 1 1 2 1 2 3068 1 45 2 2 301 7 94 2 1 3043 1 1 6 1 2 3069 1 67 2 2 3018 1 1 1 2 1 3044 119 1 2 3070 60 3 2 301 9 151 2 1 3045 122 1 2 3071 87 3 2 3020 26 3 1 3046 126 1 2 3072 101 3 2 3021 53 3 1 3047 1 29 1 2 3073 124 3 2 3022 68 3 1 3048 1 32 1 2 3074 63 4 2 3023 81 3 1 3049 1 37 1 2 3075 93 4 2 3024 93 3 1 3050 1 58 1 2 3076 109 4 2 3025 1 22 3 1 3051 63 2 2 3077 1 22 4 2 3026 1 12 4 1 3052 80 2 2 3078 1 44 4 2 0000 ZONAL Data 40 1 61 36 38 40 '2 9525 60 40 3 6515 21 40 412250 1 04 40 519889 110 40 615661 54 0000 Parameters 50 1 .4 50 2 . 1 501 1 .39 501 21 .04 501 3 40. 5016 .39 501 71 .27 5018 79. 50201 .289 0000 C a l i b r a t i o n Data 70 1 1 .3880. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 73291 .000 97. 70 21 .4020. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 111321 .000100. 70 31 .3240. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 65730 .884101 . 70 41 .4000. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 103451 .000105. 70 51 .2520. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 159331 .000123. 70 61 .5360. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 94001 .000114. 70 71 .5670. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 80840 .905109. 70 81 .7440. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 115800 .896111. 70 91 .4590. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 66620 .838117. 701 01 .7720. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 101851 .00012\ . 701 1 1 .4220. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 193691 .000146. 701 21 .7210. 0 0. 0 0 .0 0.0 0.0 0. 0 0.0 0.0 113601 .000135. F i g u r e A3:26-8(cont) WINNIPEG: Supply C a l i b r a t i o n Data 723 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" MODIFIED HOUSEHOLDS and BASE Data 0 1 1305 1 -514 0 31 .302 46. 5 0 2 1919 1 188 12 51 .398 61 . 7 0 3 2217 1 1 30 52 61 .427 65. 5 0 4 3132 1 462 1 27 91 .433 75. 0 0 5 4171 1 1357 284 241 .417 82. 6 0 6 8259 1 7305 2614 141 .377118. 1 0 7 845 2 -238 0 21 1 . 182 34. 9 0 8 1558 2 491 64 151 .372 52. 3 0 9 1860 2 754 1 79 221 .41 1 60. 0 010 2470 2 1 502 325 81 .431 71 . 2 01 1 3406 2 2342 442 101 .432 78. 5 012 4159 2 31 68 637 161 .454 74. 8 013 4787 2 4244 926 9991 .573 66. 9 014 5505 2 5008 1 1 59 9991 .573 68. 5 015 6098 2 5798 1 404 9991 .573 68. 2 016 6944 2 671 1 1 728 9991 .573 71 . 0 017 8111 2 8081 2244 9991 .573 76. 7 01810758 21 2915 4718 9991 .573 91 . 9 019 3207 3 1116 278 41 .415 58. 4 020 4905 3 2876 570 121 .410 87. 2 021 6095 3 4330 912 9991 .573 76. 9 022 71 33 3 571 3 1 254 9991 .573 76. 1 023 7670 3 6357 1 366 9991 .573 75. 3 024 8685 3 7518 1 626 9991 .573 77. 9 025 9380 3 8386 1 948 261 .399 97. 5 02610153 3 9337 2191 9991 .573 79. 2 02711163 310751 2624 251 .380104. 0 02812685 312572 3364 9991 .573 84. 0 02916138 317446 51 56 191 .347123. 7 030 728 4- 1083 0 1 1 .303 24. 1 031 2469 4 632 1 44 71 .446 69. 8 032 3830 4 1758 348 1 1 1 .415 82. 4 033 51 53 4 2648 523 171 .416 83. 3 034 671 6 4 4248 944 131 .400 94. 9 035 7962 4 591 1 1 447 181 .415 98. 3 03611180 411011 3829 9991 .573 89. 1 037 4170 5 983 296 231 .443 74. 0 038 6355 5 3936 839 9991 .573 75. 9 039 7899 5 5601 1 281 9991 .573 76. 9 040 9803 5 7990 2072 9991 .573 85. 6 04113268 512576 3505 9991 .573 83. 4 042 2355 6 -395 1 2 281 .519 76. 3 043 3572 6 -369 46 321 .5761 10. 0 044 4272 6 -272 38 331 .626119. 6 045 5164 6 525 173 371 .624131. 0 046 5937 6 1 193 295 401 .612138. 3 047 6730 6 1850 377 421 .606143. 9 048 7545 6 2566 577 441 .599152. 1 049 8683 6 3430 779 621 .622154. 9 05010382 6 5772 1 448 9991 .826134. 1 F i g u r e A3:27-8 WINNIPEG: MODIFIED P o l i c y Dataset 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL" MODIFIED HOUSEHOLDS and BASE Da 105119076 616618 6180 9991 .826232. 2 1052 3266 7 811 207 521 .505 91 . 5 1053 5486 7 3016 622 531 .635116. 1 1054 6698 7 4314 966 751 .624121. 8 1055 8127 7 5794 1411 431 .599147. 9 1056 9034 7 6016 1 489 461 .604161. 4 105710272 7 7441 2002 481 .610170. 1 105812663 711355 3873 661 .628173. 3 1059 5604 8 2539 573 301 .528 99. 7 1060 7931 8 5009 1 1 57 341 .617121 . 3 1061 9128 8 6350 1 499 361 .620128. 0 1062 9957 8 7162 1801 381 .608132. 8 106310562 8 8017 1 927 391 .605134. 7 106411215 8 8984 21 22 551 .636134. 0 106511960 8 9690 2487 571 .629139. 9 106612902 810585 2709 9991 .826119. 2 106713859 812330 321 0 9991 .826123. 4 106815103 813685 3677 9991 .826131. 4 106916436 815051 4429 9991 .826139. 4 107023718 82771611097 9991 .826191. 0 1071 2276 9 -592 94 51 1 .340 57. 8 1072 5437 9 2356 496 31 1 .585106. 2 1073 7193 9 3873 833 541 .643125. 8 1074 8045 9 4635 1 050 41 1 .602138. 3 1075 8680 9 5827 1 431 591 .617140. 4 1076 9407 9 6242 1 562 61 1 .616146. 5 107710121 9 7225 1912 731 .608156. 7 107810633 9 7201 1 904 471 .608162. 9 1 07911182 9 8149 2269 491 .599171 . 2 108011967 9 9225 2701 671 .627176. 0 108112831 910722 3383 501 .589194. 8 108213865 911680 3914 691 .596207. 0 108318543 920151 9028 9991 .826215. 7 1084 4868 10 1152 362 291 .472 88. 6 1085 7288 10 3875 1015 71 1 .619113. 4 1086 8500 10 5370 1308 351 .624124. 3 1087 9379 10 6242 1568 721 .619131. 4 108810160 10 6814 1 640 561 .627134. 9 108910654 10 7631 1841 761 .609140. 1 109011068 10 7996 2045 581 .621140. 6 109111808 10 8856 2324 601 .622147. 1 109212338 10 9124 2551 451 .600155. 2 109312806 10 9903 251 6 771 .612157. 2 109413236 1010046 2653 631 .631157. 6 109513692 1010613 2930 641 .630161 . 3 109614498 1012768 3729 651 .631168. 0 109715846 1013993 3977 781 .605184. 0 109817135 1015531 4843 681 .628189. 6 109919096 1019074 6643 9991 .826165. 8 11 023868 1025577 9440 9991 .826206. 7 F i g u r e A3:27-8 WINNIPEG: MODIFIED P o l i c y Dataset 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 Mean AFTER TAX INCOME by 20 1161.1307.6500.3993.8 20 2167.9357.7531.4791 .9 20 3387.7626.6835.41213. 20 4202.5387.7615.6893.6 20 5386.9608.4820.31132. Household TYPE 20 6313.7539.4822.41524 20 7337.2560.6766.61081 20 8585.6896.51143.1588 20 9529.7761.9958.41342 2010615.4912.81146.1601 0000 Demand PARAMETERS by TYPE 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 01) 21 1 o- .535- . 1 66. 3262. 1319. 180560. 0458. 35161. 1 1 .430 21 2 0- .543- . 1 60. 3393. 1114. 199363. 0260. 25167. 91 .431 21 3 0- .307- . 1 08. 2459. 2600. 053381 . 2921 0 .4387. 71 .434 21 4 o- .498- .233. 3147- .034. 162269. 7980. 02202. 51 .422 21 5 o- .309- .084. 2725. 3532. 116282. 1 6209 .0386. 91 .430 21 6 o- .574- . 1 74. 3497. 0632. 2216109 .0104 .6313. 71 .642 21 7 o- .485- .176. 3061 . 071 5. 134396. 651 36 .1337. 21 .667 21 8 o- .312- .190. 1 965. 0384- .047108 .531 5 .6585. 61 .639 21 9 o- .357- .221 . 2536- .009. 0503109 .6266 .8529. 71 .695 21 1 0 0- .299- .151. 2561 . 1 634. 1109108 .8338 .6615. 41 .648 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 02) 22 1 0- .355- .145. 2386. 2127. 043275. 781 54 .4307. 61 .430 22 2 0- .303- . 1 25. 1905. 2545- .05275. 61 193 .6357. 71 .431 22 3 0- .202- .091 . 1 684. 3099. 005887. 66388 .7626. 61 .433 22 4 o- .285- . 1 36. 1 169. 21 30- .28477. 5321 4 .5387. 71 .432 22 5 o- .205- .107. 091 0. 2520- .30487. 1 6375 .4608. 41 .430 22 6 o- .414- .179. 2670. 0980. 0868134 .4246 .5539. 41 .654 22 7 0- .350- .237. 1391- .115- .2431 18 .4283 .4560. 61 .650 22 8 o- .237- . 1 00. 1 382. 2766- .221129 .0530 .4896. 51 .652 22 9 o- .294- . 1 32. 2432. 2090. 0610130 .9418 .0761. 91 .699 221 0 0- .244- .119. 1 324. 2040- .228133 .8536 .3912. 81 .659 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 03) 23 1 o- .260- .121. 1 523. 2360- .15790. 68287 .6500. 31 .427 23 2 o- .216- .091 . 1 030. 3504- .29480. 45322 .9531. 41 .430 23 3 0- .161- .085. 0923. 2782- .27094. 01 544 .0835. 41 .428 23 4 0- .217- .113. 1 1 97. 2504- .24392. 93374 .1615. 61 .433 23 5 o- . 178-. 1 00. 1008. 2492- .307101 .6523 .4820. 31 .433 23 6 0- .308- . 1 02. 2503. 3494. 1559154 .4442 . 1822. 41 .630 23 7 o- .337- .195. 1 552. 0277- .220155 .2395 .4766. 61 .654 23 8 0- .213- .074. 2324. 381 6. 1671148 .6698 .31143 • .634 23 9 0- .280- .137. 1412. 1 664- .262157 .7535 .5958. 41 .705 2310 0- .227- .154. 0787. 0171- .441154 .6690 .51146 • .662 0000 ( q u a r t i l e 04) 24 1 0- . 182-.097. 1091 . 2764- .223126 .2631 .1993. 81 .427 24 2 0- .174- .088. 091 1 . 2775- .27995. 71 508 .0791. 91 .433 24 3 o- .118- .059. 0601 . 3348- .35199. 83830 .11213 • .430 24 4 o- . 164-.071 . 0623. 4100- .413103 .1578 .8893. 61 .427 24 5 o- . 126-.068. 0720. 3766- .25599. 91 767 .51132 • .423 24 6 o- .285- . 1 30. 1 739. 2312. 0365256 .0851 .51524 • .664 24 7 o- .258- . 1 23. 1 234. 2523- .250168 .2621 .71081 • .655 24 8 o- . 1 92-.101. 0955. 2575- .315184 .8995 .11588 * .647 24 9 o- .265- .129. 1 352. 2247- .216205 .2764 .71342 • .731 241 0 0- .204- . 1 02. 0810. 2535- .336194 .8990 .21601 • .665 F i g u r e A3:27-8(cont) WINNIPEG: MODIFIED P o l i c y Dataset 726 0000 P o l i c y Dataset 0000 "MODEL " DWELLI 30 1 31 1 1 30 2 51 1 1 30 3 60 1 1 30 4 66 1 1 30 5 71 1 1 30 6 73 1 1 30 7 76 1 1 30 8 79 1 1 30 9 83 1 1 301 0 87 1 1 301 1 93 . 1 1 301 2 99 1 1 301 3 109 1 1 301 4 139 1 1 3015 62 2 1 301 6 81 2 1 301 7 94 2 1 3018 1 1 1 2 1 3019 151 2 1 3020 26 3 1 3021 53 3 1 3022 68 3 1 3023 81 3 1 3024 93 3 1 3025 1 22 3 1 3026 1 1 2 4 1 0000 ZONAL Data 40 1 6136 38 40 412250 1 04 0000 Parameters 50 10 .400 50 30 .575 50 50 .450 501 10 .390 50160 .390 50201 .289 3027 47 1 2 3028 65 1 2 3029 80 1 2 3030 84 1 2 3031 86 1 2 3032 88 1 2 3033 91 1 2 3034 93 1 2 3035 95 1 2 3036 98 1 2 3037 1 00 1 2 3038 1 03 1 2 3039 1 05 1 2 3040 1 07 1 2 3041 1 10 1 2 3042 1 12 1 2 3043 1 1 6 1 2 3044 1 19 1 2 3045 1 22 1 2 3046 1 26 1 2 3047 1 29 1 2 3048 1 32 1 2 3049 1 37 1 2 3050 1 58 1 2 3051 63 2 2 3052 80 2 2 40 2 9525 60 40 519889 1 10 50 20 .100 50 40 .350 50 60 .550 501 21 .040 501 71 .270 3053 88 2 2 3054 96 2 2 3055 101 2 2 3056 103 2 2 3057 106 2 2 3058 108 2 2 3059 1 10 2 2 3060 1 13 2 2 3061 1 1 5 2 2 3062 1 18 2 2 3063 1 20 2 2 3064 1 23 2 2 3065 1 28 2 2 3066 132 2 2 3067 1 37 2 2 3068 1 45 2 2 3069 1 67 2 2 3070 60 3 2 3071 87 3 2 3072 101 3 2 3073 1 24 3 2 3074 63 4 2 3075 93 4 2 3076 1 09 4 2 3077 1 22 4 2 3078 1 44 4 2 40 3 651 5 21 40 615661 54 50 71 .097 50 80 .979 501 3 66.0 5018 79.0 Fi g u r e A3:27-8(cont) WINNIPEG: MODIFIED P o l i c y Dataset PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 1 CS F09:SIM01.FORT 2 ra ccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccc 4 c HOUSING MARKET SIMULATION PROGRAM With ORIGINAL MODE D 6 ccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccc 7 8 C0MM0N/BLK8/DU1(36720) 9 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(502,6),HHT(10,4),DWD(3,50 lO * ,PAR(40),POL(10,4),EXT(2,2,12),ZW(11),IC1(20),DU2( 1 1 REAL*4 DAT(5) 12 EQUIVALENCE (PAR(21 ) , DAT(1)),(PAR(40),TOL),(IC1 (7) , 13 * , ( IC1 (8), I OP),(IC1(10),NS),(IC1(20),NCI),(IC1 (6) ,M 14 c. 15 c. D DEFINE FILE 7(502,251,U,M1),8(502,1506,U,M2),9(502, 16 c. 17 CALL CL$1(IR) 18 c. DC CALL REREAD 19 MSIZE=120 20 IP=0 21 IG=0 22 c. 23 ' c. . . l o a d DATA 24 5 CALL IN$DAT(NER,IP,IG,IR) 25 CALL 0T$1 26 c. . . c a l c tt groups and e r r o r check 27 CALL CL$2(NER) 28 c. 29 IP1=IP 30 c. 31 CALL 0T$2(NER,IP1) 32 IF(IP 1 .GE.1.AND.IP1.LE.10.AND.IOP.NE.0)CALL OT$CAL 33 c. 34 c. "parameter" i t e r a t i o n c o n t r o l 35 c. 36 IR 1 = 1 37 IR2=1 38 IT1=0 39 IT2=0 40 c. 4 1 DO 11 1=1,5 42 IF(DAT(I).E0.O)G0T0 11 43 IF(IT1 .NE.0.AND.IT2.EQ.0)IT2= I 44 IF(IT1 .EQ.0)IT1 = I 45 11 CONTINUE 46 c. 47 IF(IT1.E0.O)GOT0 10 48 IR1=4 49 B1=PAR(IT1) 50 IF(PAR(IT1).EO.DAT(IT1))IR1=1 > LO f* m • n O — i k i—< CD LT) D •• * U TO D O ZD cn —1 3> -2. cn H- r -3 •—( c cn —1 CD i c+ z H- cn O cn ~0 H Q CQ H CJ 3 -h O H • ZD cn AL 2 a a m -4 PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 51 IF(IT2.E0.O)G0T0 10 52 IR2 = 4 53 B2=PAR(IT2) 54 IF(PAR(IT2).EQ.DATCIT2))IR2=1 55 C . 56 10 DO 3 12=1,IR2 57 IF(IR2.E0.1)G0T0 12 58 PAR(IT2)=B2+((DAT(IT2)-B2)/3. )*FLOAT(12-1) 59 C . 60 12 DO 3 I 1 = 1,IR1 61 IF(IR1.EQ.1)G0T0 13 62 PAR(IT1)=B1 + ((DAT(IT1 )-B1)/3. )*FL0AT(11-1) 63 1F(I 1 .NE. 1)IP1=0 64 C . 65 13 CALL CL$3(IP1,1ST) 66 C . . . output i n i t i a l c o n d i t i o n s 67 CALL 0T$3(IP1) 68 C . .. s i m u l a t i n g f o r convergence i n e x t e r n a l i t i e s 69 DO 1 1=1,NCI 70 L=I 71 IF(L.GT.2)L=2 72 C . 73 C . c a l c f u l l u t i l i t y f o r each s i m u l a t i o n run 74 CALL CL$4 75 I F ( I P 1 . GE.2.AND.IP1.LE. 10)CALL 0T$4(IP1 ) 76 C . 77 C . c a l l s o r t r o u t i n e 78 CALL SRT$1(L) 79 IF(IP1.GT.2.AND.IP1.LE.10)CALL 0T$4A(IP1 ) 80 C . a l l o c a t i o n r o u t i n e 81 CALL CL$5(IP) 82 IF(IP1 .EO. 10.AND.NS.NE.0)CALL CL$SB1 (1 ) 83 IF(IP1 .EO. 10)CALL 0T$5 84 C . c a l c e x t e r n a l i t i e s 85 CALL CL$10(SER) 86 CALL 0T$1O(SER) 87 IF(SER.LT.T0L)G0T0 2 88 C . 89 1 CONTINUE 90 C . 91 2 IF(NS.NE.0)CALL CL$SB1(2) 92 IF(IP1 .EO. 1.OR.IP1 .E0.2)CALL 0T$5 93 C . 94 IF(IOP.EO.1.OR.IOP.EO.2)CALL CL$20(IOP) 95 IF(I0P.E0.3)CALL 0T$7 96 IF(NS.NE.0)CALL OT$SB 97 IF(I0P.E0.3)CALL OT$BS 98 IF(IG.NE.O)CALL AL$GRP(IG) 99 3 CONTINUE 100 C . 101 C . .. r e s e t parameters —~1 ro CD PR0GRAM:FO9:SIMO1.FORT 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 1 10 1 1 1 i 12 1 13 1 14 1 15 1 16 1 17 1 18 1 19 120 121 122 123 124 125 126 127 128 129 130 131 132 133 134 135 136 137 138 139 140 14 1 142 143 144 145 146 147 148 149 150 151 152 C . IF(IT1 .NE.0)PAR(IT1)=B1 IF(IT2.NE.0)PAR(IT2)=B2 GOTO 5 END SUBROUTINE IN$DAT(NER,IP,IG,IR ) r o u t i n e to l o a d the REQUIRED data. INTEGER*2 E0(5O2) REAL*4 DAT(5),ACT(12,11) INTEGER*4 IGIVEN(9),C1,C2 REAL*8 ERR(10) C0MM0N/BLK8/ERR,RD(12) C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(502,6),HHT(10,4) ,DWD(3,50 * ,PAR(40),POL(10,4),EXT(2,2,12),ZW(11),IC1(20),I POL EQUIVALENCE (PAR(21),DAT(1)),(IC1(20),NCI) * , ( I C 1 ( 6 ) , M S I Z E ) , ( I C 1 ( 3 ) , I 0 P ) , ( I C 1 ( 1 1 ) , I G I V E N ( 1 ) ) * ,(PAR(26),Y FORM),(PAR(27),COEF),(PAR(37),PPP) * ,(HHD(2001),ACT(1,1)) c c. . i n p u t data format c. . DATA type i dent i f i e r . c. . 1234 :56789 :*1234 :56789 c. . 0000 t i t l e c. . 10 households i ncome : type c. . 20 hhlds t y p e s : i ncome c. . 21 hhlds t y p e s : a l p h a s c. . 2200 TENURE BY TYPE c. . 2300 ALPHA ADJUSTMENT FACTOR c. . c 2400 INCOME FORM USED INTERNALLY c. . 30 d w e l l i n g s : s e r v i c e s : z o n e c. . 40 zonal : 'wealth":di s t a n c e c. . 5001 GAMMA1(PRICE ) 501 1 c. . 5002 GAMMA2(WEALTH) 5012 c. . 5003 GAMMA3(ACCESS) 5013 c. . 5004 BETA 1 5014 c. . p 5005 BETA2 5015 c. . 6001 o p e r a t i n g c o s t c. . 6002 c a p i t a l c o s t c. . n 6003 MIN "Q" L- . . c. . 70 a c t u a l zonal pr i ce :%type 1 :::::: :%type8: c. . 810 POLICY CONTR TYPE :PAR1 : : : : :PAR6:IN c. . 8200 ELIGIBLE HOUSEHOLD TYPES. c. . 8300 GIVEN NEW PUBLIC HOUSING c. . 8400 REDUCTION IN PURCHASING POWER c. . 8900 PRICE ELASTICITY PARAMETER c. . 9000 MODEL SPECIFICATION PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 153 C 9100 p r i n t c o n t o l 154 C 9200 graph c o n t r o l 0 or 60 or 120 155 C 9201 graph type 1 p r i n t s u p p l y f n 156 C 9500 H ITERATIONS FOR CONVERGENCE 157 C 9900 s t a r t "POLICY " run 158 C 9901 s t a r t GAMMA CALIBRATION RUN 159 C 9902 s t a r t BETA CALIBRATION RUN 160 c 9903 s t a r t "BASE" run 161 c 162 IC=0 163 c 164 120 READ(IR,1,ERR=10,END =11)11 165 c DC 10 = 99 166 IO=IR 167 BACKSPACE IR 168 IC=IC+1 169 I F ( I 1 .EQ.O)G0T0 20 170 c 171 READ(10,1,ERR=10)C1,C2,I2.RD 172 1 F0RMAT(2I1,12,12F5.0) 173 I1=10*C1+C2 174 I F ( I 1 .E0.99)GOTO 16 1 75 1=11/10 176 c 177 IF(I.EQ.9)G0T0 90 178 G0T0(21,22,23,24,25,27,44,80),I 179 c . .TITLE 180 c 181 20 READ(10,3)TITLE 182 3 F0RMAT(4X,6A4) 183 GOTO 120 184 c 185 c ..HOUSEHOLD DATA 186 21 I2=I2+100*C2 187 IF(I2.GT.MSIZE-1.OR. 12 . LT. 1)GOTO 30 188 DO 31 1=1,5 189 .IF(RD(I).EQ.0.0.AND. I.LE.2)G0T0 40 190 K = I 191 IF(K.GE.3)K=K+1 192 31 HHD(I2,K)=RD(I) 193 E0(I2)=HFIX(RD(10)) 194 GOTO 120 195 c 196 c ..HOUSEHOLD TYPE DATA 197 22 I F ( I 1 .EQ.23)G0T0 33 198 I F ( I 1 .EQ.24)G0T0 34 199 I F ( I 1 .EQ.22)G0T0 32 200 IF(12.GT.10.OR.12.LT .1)G0T0 30 201 1 = 1 202 I F ( I 1.EQ.21)I=2 203 IF(RD(1).EQ.O)G0T0 40 a PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 204 HHT(12,I)=RD(1) 205 GOTO 120 206 C . . . 207 C... TENURE BY TYPE 208 32 DO 132 12=1 , 10 209 IF(RD(12).LT.O.O.0R.RD(12).GT.2.0)G0T0 120 210 132 HHT(I2,4)=RD(I2) 211 GOTO 120 212 C... ALPHA ADJUSTMENT FACTOR 213 33 COEF=RD(1)/1OO00. 2 14 GOTO 120 2>15 C... INCOME FORM USED 216 34 YFORM=RD(1) 217 GOTO 120 218 C . . . 219 C... DWELLING DATA 220 23 I2=I2+100*C2 221 IF(I2.GT.MSIZE-1.OR.12.LT.1)G0T0 30 222 C . . . 223 IF(RD(2).LE.5)G0T0 35 224 RD(2)=RD(3) 225 RD(3)=RD(4) 226 35 DO 133 1=1,3 227 IF(RD(I).EQ.O.AND.I.NE.3)G0T0 40 228 133 DWD(I,12)=RD(I) 229 IF(RD(3).GT.2.)DWD(3,I2)=0.0 230 GOTO 120 231 C. . . 232 C... ZONAL DATA 233 24 IF(I2.GT. 1 1 .OR.I2.LT. 1 )GOTO 30 234 DO 134 I,= 1,2 235 IF(RD(I),EQ.O.0)G0T0 40 236 134 ZOD(1,12) =RD(I ) 237 GOTO 120 238 C . . . 239 C... l o a d zonal d a t a f o r c a l i b r a t i o n 240 44 IF(12 .GT.20.OR.12.LT. 1 )GOTO 30 241 DO 54 1=1,12 242 IF(RD(I).LT.0)GOTO 40 243 54 ACT( I , I2)=RD(I) 244 GOTO 120 245 C . . . 246 C... PARAMETERS 247 25 IF(I2.GE. 11 .AND.12.LE. 15)G0T0 26 248 IF(I2.LT.O.0R.I2.GT.5)G0T0 30 249 IF(RD(1).LT.O.OR.RD(1).GT.1.)GOTO 40 250 IF(RD(2).LT.O.0R.RD(2).GT.1.)GOT0 40 251 PAR(I2)=RD(1) 252 DAT(12 ) =RD(2) 253 GOTO 120 254 C . . . -4 PR0GRAM:FO9:SIMO1.FORT 255 26 IF(RD(1).LT.O.OR.RD(1).GT. 1 . )GOTO 40 256 DAT(I2-10)=RD(1) 257 GOTO 120 258 C . . . 259 27 IF(I2.LT.O.OR.I2.GT.3)G0T0 30 260 IF(RD(1).LT.O.)GOTO 40 261 PAR( 12 + 5)=RD(1) 262 GOTO 120 263 C. . . 264 C... POLICY PARAMETERS 265 80 K=I1-80 266 IF(K.E0.9)G0T0 89 267 IF(I2.E0.0)12=1 268 IF(12 . LT. 1 .OR.12.GT.4)G0T0 30 269 G0T0C81,82,83,84),K 270 GOTO 12 271 81 IPOL( 1 ,I2) = IFIX(RD(1)) 272 IP0L(2,I2) = IFIX(RD(1)* 10.-FLOAT(IFIX(RD(1))*10)+.01 273 DO 181 1=1,10 274 181 POL( I ,I2)=RD(1 + 1) 275 GOTO 120 276 C... ELIGIBILITY 277 82 DO 182 1=1,10 278 182 HHT(I,3)=RD(I) 279 GOTO 120 280 C... PUBLIC HOUSING 281 83 DO 183 1=1,9 282 183 IGIVEN(I)=IFIX(RD(I)) 283 GOTO 120 284 C... REDUCE PURCHASE POWER 285 84 IF(RD(1).GE.0..AND.RD(1).LT.0.2)PPP=RD(1) 286 GOTO 120 287 C... PRICE ELASTICITY ADJUSTOR 288 89 PAR(36)=RD(1) 289 GOTO 120 290 C . . . 291 C . . . 292 C... PRINT CONTROL 293 90 1=11-90 294 IF(I.EQ.5)G0T0 95 295 G0T0(91,92),I 296 IC1(7)=IFIX(RD(1)) 297 GOTO 120 298 C . . . 299 91 IP=IFIX(RD(1)) 300 GOTO 120 301 92 IF(12.EQ.O.AND.(RD(1).EO.O.OR.RD(1).EO.60.OR.RD(1). 302 * IG=IFIX(RD(1)) 303 IF(I2.EQ.1)ISUPLY=IFIX(RD(1)) 304 GOTO 120 305 C . . . PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 306 95 NCI=IFIX(RD(1)) 307 GOTO 120 308 C . 309 12 WRITE(6,2)IC 310 GOTO 13 31 1 C . 312 30 WRITE(6,4)IC 313 GOTO 13 3 14 c. 315 10 IC=IC+1 316 WRITE(6,5)IC 317 GOTO 13 318 c. 319 40 WRITE(6,8)I,IC 320 c. 32 1 c. 322 13 CONTINUE 323 c. DC 10 = 99 324 IO=IR 325 BACKSPACE IR 326 READ(10,6)ERR 327 WRITE(6,7)ERR 328 NER = 2 329 GOTO 120 330 c. 331 c. 332 16 I0P=I2 333 IF(I2.EQ.99)ST0P 334 RETURN 335 c. 336 1 1 IF(IR.EQ.5)ST0P 337 IR = 5 338 GOTO 120 339 c. 340 2 FORMAT(' e r r o r i n column 1 or 2 :card',14,'Card i s : 341 4 FORMAT(' e r r o r i n column 3 or 4 :card',I4, 'Card i s 342 5 FORMAT(' read e r r o r - p r o b a b l y i n v a l i d c h a r a c t e r . C 343 6 FORMAT(10A8) 344 7 FORMAT(' ',10A8) 345 8 FORMAT(' m i s s i n g d a t a item',12,' :card',I4,' Card i 346 END 347 c. 348 c. 349 SUBROUTINE CALC 350 c. .. r o u t i n e s f o r INITIALISATION and CHECKing input d a t a 351 INTEGERM IGIVEN(9),IPOL(2,4) 352 REALM XX(4730) , BL/ ' '/ 353 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(502,6),HHT(10,4),DWD(3,50 354 * : ,PAR(40),POL(10,4),EXT(2,2,12),ZW(11),IC1(28),AILI 355 EQUIVALENCE (IC1(1),NZ),(IC1(2),NMD),(IC1(3),NHT),( 356 * ,(IC1(5),NMD 1),(IC1(20),NCI),(IC1(11),IGIVEN(1)) PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 357 * ,(IC1 (21),IPOL(1,1)) 358 * ,(PARC 1),GAMMA 1 ) ,(PARC 2) ,GAMMA2),(PAR(4),BETA 1),(P 359 * , (PARC 3),GAMMA3 ) ,(PAR(27),COEF),(PAR(28),SUBM),(IG 360 * ,(PAR(6),PO),(PARC 7),PC),(PAR(8),QM) 361 * , (PAR(9) , PN) , (PAR( 10) , AMAX) , (PAR(40,.) ,TOL) 362 * , ( IC 1 (G ) ,MSIZE) , (IC 1 (8 ) , IOP) , (IC1(7) , MTYPE ) , (IC 1 ( 1 363 * ,(XX(1),HHD(1,1)) 364 C . 365 ENTRY CL$1(IR) 366 IRUN=0 367 DO 30 1=1,4730 368 30 XX(I)=0. 369 C . 370 DO 70 1=1,28 371 70 IC1(I)=0 372 C . 373 DO 71 1 = 1 ,6 374 71 TITLE(I)=BL 375 TOL=.01 376 NCI=5 377 IR = 4 378 C . .. ELIGIBILITY FOR SUBSIDY 379 DO 90 1=1,10 380 90 HHT(I,3)=2. 381 RETURN 382 C . 383 ENTRY CL$2(NER) 384 IRUN=IRUN+1 385 PN=PO+PC 386 C . 387 C . .. c h e c k i n g p r i c e s a r e not z e r o 388 IF(PO.GT.0.0)GOTO 43 389 WRITE(6,108) 390 NER = 2 391 43 IF(PC.GT.O.O)G0T0 44 392 WRITEC6,109) 393 NER = 2 394 44 IF(IOP.NE.O.OR.GAMMA 1.GT.0.0)GOTO 45 395 WRITE(6,110) 396 NER = 2 397 45 CONTINUE 398 C . 399 C . .. o b t a i n i n g number zones, d w e l l s , h h l d types and hhold 400 NHH= 1 401 NMD= 1 402 DO 1 I=1,MSIZE 403 IF(HHD(I,1).NE.0)NHH=I 404 1 IF(DWD(1,I).NE.0)NMD = I 405 NMD 1=NMD+1 406 C . 407 DO 2 I=1,NHH PR0GRAM:FO9:SIMO1.FORT 408 IF(HHD(I,1).NE.0)GOTO 2 409 WRITE(6,101)I 410 NER=2 411 2 CONTINUE 412 C . . . 4 13 DO 3 1=1,NMD 414 IF(DWD (1,I).NE.0)GOTO 3 415 WRITE(6,102)1 416 NER=2 417 3 CONTINUE 418 C . . . 4 19 NHT=1 420 NZ =1 421 DO 4 1=1,10 422 4 IF(HHT(I,1).NE.0)NHT=I 423 C . . . 424 DO 14 IZ= 1 , 11 425 14 IF(Z0D(1,IZ).NE.0)NZ=IZ 426 C . . . 427 DWD(2,NMD1)=NZ 428 DO 5 1 = 1 , NHT 429 IF(HHT(I,1).NE.O)G0T0 5 430 WRITE(6,103)1 431 NER=2 432 5 CONTINUE 433 C . . . 434 C... c h e c k i n g "TYPE" c o r r e c t 435 DO 15 I=1,NHH 436 IF(HHD(I,2).LE.NHT)GOTO 15 437 • WRITE(6,105)1 438 NER=2 439 15 CONTINUE 440 C . . . 441 AMAX=0 442 DO 6 IZ=1,NZ 443 IF(Z0D(2,IZ).GT.AMAX)AMAX=ZOD(2,IZ) 444 IF(Z0D(1,IZ).NE.O)G0T0 6 445 WRITE(6,104)IZ 446 NER=2 447 6 CONTINUE 448 C . . . 449 C... c h e c k i n g "ZONE" c o r r e c t 450 DO 16 J=1,NMD 451 IZ = I F I X(DWD(2,J)) 452 IF(IZ.GT.NZ)GOTO 17 453 IF(IRUN.EG). 1 )EXT( 1,2, IZ)=EXT( 1 ,2, IZ)+1 454 GOTO 16 455 C . . . 456 17 WRITE(6,106)J O J 457 NER = 2 458 16 CONTINUE PR0GRAM:FO9:SIMO1.FORT 459 C . 460 I F ( I RUN.GT. 1)GOTO 10 461 IF(EXT(1,2,NZ).EQ.O.)EXT(1,2,NZ)=FLOAT(NHH-NMD) 462 EXT( 1 , 2, 12)=AMAXO(NHH,NMD) 463 C . .. CALCULATING WEIGHTED MEAN OF INPUT EXTERNALITIES 464 DO 31 IZ=1,NZ 465 31 EXT( 1,1, 12) = EXT(1,1, 12) + (Z0D( 1 ,IZ)*EXT(1,2,IZ)) 466 C . 467 EXT( 1,1,12) = EXT(1,1,12)/EXT(1,2,12) 468 C . 469 C . .. c a l c i n i t i a l e x t e r n a l i t i e s . 470 C . .. USE INPUT ACTUAL INCOMES - CM.A. MEAN CALCULATED 471 C . 472 DO 9 IZ=1,NZ 473 9 EXT( 1 , 1 ,IZ)=ZOD(1,IZ)/EXT(1,1,12) 474 C . 475 10 NS=0 476 SUBM=0. 477 IF(IPOL(1,1).EO.O)RETURN 478 C . 479 C . .. DERIVING POLICY SUB OPTIONS 480 DO 7 L=1,4 481 IF(IPOL(1,L).EQ.O)G0T0 7 482 C . 483 NS = L 484 AILIM(L)=P0L(6,L) 485 IF(AILIM(L).EQ.O)AILIM(L)=9999. 486 IF(POL(10,L).EO.O.)POL(10,L)=9999. 487 C . 488 I=IPOL(1,L) 489 GOTO(2 1 ,21,21 ,22,22,22,23,23,23,24,24,24,25,25,25) 490 GOTO 26 491 C . 492 C . . . i ncome subs i dy 493 21 IP0L(2,L)=2 494 GOTO 7 495 C . i n-k i nd 496 22 IF(IP0L(2,L).NE.0)GOTO 7 497 IF(P0L(4,L)+P0L(5,L).NE.0.0)IPOL(2,L)=5 498 IF(P0L(4,L).EO.O.0)1P0L(2,L)=3 499 IF(P0L(5,L).EO.O.0)1P0L(2,L)=1 500 IF(P0L(2,L).EO.O.0)1POL(2,L)=IP0L(2,L)+1 501 GOTO 7 502 C . pr i ce subs i dy 503 23 IP0L(2,L)=1 504 IF(P0L(1,L).LT.0.01.OR.POL(1,L).GT.5.)POL(1,L)=PO 505 IF(P0L(2,L).LT.0.01 .0R.P0L(2,L) . GT.5. )P0L(2,L)=PC 506 IF(POL(3,L).LT.0.01.OR.POL(3,L).GT.5.)POL(3,L)=P0 507 IF(P0L(4,L).LT.0.01.OR.POL(4,L).GT.5.)P0L(4,L)=PC 508 GOTO 7 509 C . .. d i r e c t demand s u b s i d y PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 510 24 IP0L(2,L)=1 51 1 IF(P0L(2,L).EO.O.)IP0L(2,L)=2 512 GOTO 7 513 C 514 C .. d i r e c t supply s u b s i d y 515 25 I F ( I POL(2,L).GE.1.AND.IPOL(2,L).LE.2)G0T0 7 516 IP0L(2,L)=1 517 IF(P0L(2,L).EQ.O.)IP0L(2,L)=2 518 C 519 C .. c o n s t r a i n e d MINIMUM o p t i o n 520 26 IF(IP0L(2,L).EQ.O)IP0L(2,L)=1 52 1 IF(P0L(1,L).EQ.O.)POL(1,L)=QM 522 SUBM=1 . 523 C 524 7 CONTINUE 525 I F ( I PUB.EQ.O)RETURN 526 C 527 DO 830 1=2,9 528 K=IGIVEN(I) 529 IF(K.LE.NHH)G0T0 8 530 WRITE(6,107)K 531 NER = 2 532 GOTO 830 533 8 IF(K.GT.O)HHD(K,2)=-HHD(K,2) 534 830 CONTINUE 535 RETURN 536 C 537 101 FORMAT(' E r r o r : NO household number',14) 538 102 FORMAT(' E r r o r : NO d w e l l i n g number',14) 539 103 FORMAT(' E r r o r : NO household type d a t a f o r ',14) 540 104 FORMAT(' E r r o r : NO zonal d a t a f o r ',14) 541 105 FORMAT(' E r r o r : INCORRECT "type" f o r ',14) 542 106 FORMAT(' E r r o r : INCORRECT "zone" f o r ',14) 543 107 FORMATC ERROR:',16,' INCORRECT ON *8003*') 544 108 FORMATC ERROR: "6001": "PO" IS ZERO') 545 109 FORMAT(' ERROR: "6002": "PC" IS ZERO') 546 1 10 FORMAT(' ERROR: "5001": "GAMMA 1" IS ZERO FOR POLICY 547 END 548 C 549 C 550 SUBROUTINE CALC1 551 C r o u t i n e s f o r C A L C u l a t i n g demand-supply i n t e r c e p t s . 552 INTEGER*2 I SUB(120,120) 553 INTEGER*2 DWC(3,120,120) 554 REAL*4 DU1(7260),GAMMA(10) 555 C0MM0N/BLK8/DU1,DWC,ISUB 556 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(502,6),HHT(10,4),DWD(3, 50 557 * .PAR(40),POL(10,4),EXT(2,2,12),ZW(11),IC1(20),IPOL 558 EQUIVALENCE (IC1(2),NMD ) ,(IC1(4),NHH),(IC1(5),NMD 1) 559 * ,(IC1(8),IOP),(IC1(10),NS),(DU1(503).GAMMA) 560 C PROGRAM:F09: SIM01 .FORT 561 ENTRY CL$3(IP1,1ST) 562 C 563 C .. QL = % OF ON ACCEPTABLE 564 OL=0.95 565 IF(IOP . EO. 1.OR.IOP.EO.2)0L=O. 566 IF(IP1 .EO. 10)WRITE(6,999)IC1 567 999 FORMAT(1015/1015 568 *//' SUB PRICE QUANTITY Y UTILITY 569 DO 997 K=1,10 570 997 GAMMA(K)= PAR (1) 57 1 C 572 C .. CALCULATING PRICE AND QUANTITY BY HOUSEHOLD 573 C 574 DO 1 1=1,NHH 575 IH=I 576 C D IH= 1 577 C 578 DO 40 J=1,MSIZE 579 ISUB(IH,J)=0 580 DO 40 L=1,3 581 40 DWC(L,IH,J)=0 582 IS=0 583 U1=0.0 584 C 585 K=IFIX(ABS(HHD(I,2))) 586 IT=HHT(K,4) 587 CALL PQYI(I,K,AY,IP1) 588 CALL PQYN(0,IS,0,PJ,ON,U,SUBH,PH,OH,UHS) 589 IF(HHD(I,2).LT.0.0)G0T0 7 590 IF(HHT(K,3).EQ.O.O.0R.NS.E0.O)G0T0 17 591 C 592 DO 18' L=1 ,NS 593 N=IPOL(1,L) 594 IF(AY.GT.AILIM(L))GOTO 18 595 IP=0 596 IS1=IP0L(2,L) 597 C . . i ncome 598 IFfN.EQ. 1 .0R.N.E0.3)IP=1 599 C i n-k i nd 600 IF(N.E0.4.0R.N.E0.6)IP=2 601 C . . pr i ce 602 IF(N.E0.7.0R.N.EQ.9)IP=3 603 C . . d i r e c t demand 604 IF(N.EQ.10.0R.N.EQ.12)IP=4 605 C . . d i r e c t supp1y 606 IF(N . EO.13.0R.N.EQ.15)IP = 5 607 C .. c o n s t r a i n e d MINIMUM o p t i o n 608 IF(N.EQ.20.0R.N.EQ.22)G0T0 16 609 C 610 IF(IP.E0.O)G0T0 18 61 1 IF(L.EO.1)GOTO 20 ^ 1 CD PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 612 SUBT=SUB(IP,IS1,L,AY,P1,01,999) 613 IF( IP.E0.2.AND.SUBT.GT.P1*01)SUBT=P1*Q1 614 C 615 IF(SUBT.GE.SUBH)GOTO 19 616 C 617 IF(L.E0.NS)GOTO 17 618 20 CALL POYN(IP,IS1,L,P1,Q1,U1,SUBH) 619 ISH=L*10+IP 620 C 621 C check that i n k i n d s u b s i d y < P*Q 622 IF(IP.NE.2)G0T0 18 623 IF(SUBH.LT.P1*Q1)G0T0 18 624 IS1=0 625 CALL PQYN(IP,IS1,L,P1,Q1,U1,SUBH) 626 C 627 GOTO 18 628 C 629 c c o n s t r a i n e d MINIMUM o p t i o n 630 16 CALL PQNQ(IP,IS1,L,P1,01,U1,SUBH,PH,OH,UHS) 631 ISH=20 632 IF(QN.LT.POL(1,L)) U=0. 633 IF(IP1.EO.10)WRITE(6,1009)PJ,ON,U,P1,01,U1, 634 1009 FORMAT(3(F5.2,F6. 1,F 1 2 . 4 )) 635 c 636 18 CONTINUE 637 c 638 19 IF(U1 .LE.U)GOTO 17 639 IS=ISH 640 PJ = P1 641 0N=Q1 642 U =U1 643 c 644 17 DWC(1,IH,NMD 1)=HFIX((0N+.005)* 10.) 645 DWC(2,IH,NMD 1)=HFIX(U*10. ) 646 DWC(3,IH,NMD 1)=HFIX((PJ+.0005)* 1000. ) 647 ISUB(IH,NMD 1) = IS 648 IF(IS.EQ.20)ISUB(IH.NMD1)=HFIX((SUBH+.005)* 649 c 650 c EXISTING DWELLINGS 651 DO 11 J=1,NMD 652 c ... TENURE CHECK 653 IDT=IFIX(DWD(3,J)) 654 IF(IT.NE.0.AND.IT.NE.IDT)GOTO 11 655 c 656 U1=0.0 657 IS=0 658 CALL PQYE(0,IS,0,J,PJ,QJ,U,SUBH,PH,QH,UHS) 659 c 660 IF(HHT(K,3).EQ.O.0R.NS.EQ.O)G0T0 12 661 c 662 DO 21 L=1,NS PR0GRAM:FO9:SIMO1.FORT 663 N=IPOL(1,L) 664 IF(AY.GT.AILIM(L))GOTO 21 665 C . . . 666 IS1=IPOL(2,L) 667 IP=0 668 C. . . i ncome 669 IFCN.EQ.1.OR.N.EQ.2)IP=1 670 C. . . i n-k i nd 671 IF(N.EQ.4.0R.N.EQ.5)IP=2 672 C. . . pr i ce 673 IF(N.E0.7.0R.N.E0.8)IP=3 674 C... d i r e c t demand 675 IF(N.EO.10.0R.N.EO.11)IP=4 676 C... d i r e c t s u p p l y s u b s i d y 677 . IF(N.EO. 13.0R.N.EQ. 14)IP = 5 678 C... c o n s t r a i n e d MINIMUM o p t i o n 679 IF(N.EO.20.OR.N.EO.21)GOTO 24 680 C . . . 681 IF(IP.E0.O)G0TO 21 682 IF(L.EQ. 1 )GOTO 23 683 SUBT=5UB(IP,IS1,L,AY,P1,Q1,d) 684 IF( IP . E0.2.AND.SUBT.GT.P1*Q1)SUBT = P1*01 685 C . . . 686 IF(5UBT.GE.SUBH)G0T0 22 687 IF(L.E0.NS)G0T0 12 688 23 CALL PQYE(IP,IS1,L,d,P1,01,U1,SUBH) 689 ISH=L*10+IP 690 C . . . 691 C... check on i n k i n d s u b s i d y < P*0 692 I F ( I P .NE.2)G0T0 21 693 IF(SUBH.LT.P1*Q1)GOTO 21 694 IS1=0 695 CALL PQYE(IP,IS1, L , d , P 1,01,U1,SUBH) 696 GOTO 21 697 C . . . 698 C... c o n s t r a i n e d MINIMUM o p t i o n 699 24 CALL PQEQ(IP,IS1,L,d,P1,01,U1,SUBH,PH,OH,UHS) 700 IF(QJ.LT.POL(1,L)) U=0. 701 ISH=20 702 IF(IP1.EQ.10)WRITE(6,1009)Pd,Od,U,P1,Q1 , U1 , PH, OH, UH 703 C . . . 704 21 CONTINUE 705 C . . . 706 22 IF(U1 . LE.U)GOTO 12 707 IS=ISH 708 Pd=P1 709 QJ = Q1 710 U=U1 711 12 IF(0d.LT.0L*QN)G0T0 11 712 DWC( 1 ,IH,d)=HFIX((Qd+.005)*10.) 713 DWC(2,IH,d)=HFIX(U*10.) PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 714 DWC(3,IH,J)=HFIX((PU+.0005)* 1000. ) 715 ISUB( IH,U) = IS 7 16 IF(IS.EQ.20)ISUB(IH,d)=HFIX((SUBH+.005)* 10. ) 717 11 CONTINUE 718 C 719 C .. ZERO OUT NEW DWELLING FOR GAMMA CALIBRATION 720 IF(IOP.NE.1)GOTO 7 721 DWC(1,IH,NMD 1)=0 722 DWC(2,IH,NMD 1 )=0 723 DWC(3,IH,NMD 1 )=0 724 C 725 7 CONTINUE 726 C D WRITE(8'I)DWC 727 C D WRITE(9'I)I SUB 728 1 CONTINUE 729 RETURN 730 END 731 C 732 SUBROUTINE CALCO 733 INTEGER*2 E0(502) 734 REAL*4 MY 735 C0MM0N/BLK8/ALPHA(5O2),GAMMA(10) 736 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(502,6),HHT(10,4),DWD(3,50 737 * ,PAR(40),POL(10,4),EXT(2,2, 12 ) ,ZW(1 1 ),IC1(20),DU1( 738 EQUIVALENCE (IC1(1),NZ),(IC1(2),NMD),(IC1(3),NHT),( 739 * ,(IC1(5),NMD1),(IC1(20),NCI) 740 * ,(PAR(2),GAMMA2),(PAR(4),BETA 1),(PAR(5),BETA2) 741 * ,(PAR(3),GAMMA3),(PAR(27),COEF) 742 * ,(PAR(6),PO),(PAR(7),PC),(PAR(8),QM) 743 * ,(PAR(9),PN),(PAR(10),AMAX) 744 * ,(PAR(26),YFORM),(PAR(37),PPP) 745 C 746 DATA TOL/0.0001/ 747 C • 748 ENTRY PQYI(I,K,AY,IP1) 749 GAMMA 1=GAMMA(K) 750 C 751 C "permanent" INCOME and ALPHAS 752 HHD(I,3)=EXP(0.6*AL0G(HHD(I,1))+0.4*ALOG(HHT(K,1))) 753 IF(YFORM.NE.0. )HHD(I,3 ) =HHD(I, 1 )/12. 754 MY = HHD(I,3) 755 AY=HHD(I,1)/12. 756 C .. a d j u s t i n g f o r purchase power 757 IF(HHD(I,1).GT.HHT(K,1))MY=MY*(1.-PPP) 758 IF(HHD(I,1).GT.HHT(K, 1 ) )AY = AY*( 1 .-PPP) 759 C 760 EQQ=0.0 761 IF(Y FORM.EQ.2. )EQQ=EQ(I)/10000. 762 C 763 ALPHA(I)=HHT(K,2)*(1.+COEF) 764 HALPHA=ALPHA(I) -4 PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 765 C . . . 766 PB=PN 767 C . . . 768 CALL PQMOI(GAMMA 1,AY,MY,EOO,HALPHA , PB) 769 C . . . 770 RETURN 771 C . . . 772 C... " q u a n t i t y " - " u t i l i t y " of new c o n s t r u c t i o n "ON" 773 ENTRY PQYN(IP,IS,L,P,0,U,SUBA,PH,OH,UH) 774 P=PB 775 GOTO( 1 1 ,12, 13, 14, 14) ,IP 776 Q=(HALPHA*MY/PB)/(1.-HALPHA*EQQ) 777 C... p u b l i c housing 778 IF(HHD(I,2).LT.0.0.AND.Q.LT.QM)Q=QM 779 GOTO 16 780 C. . . 781 C. . . i ncome 782 11 Q=(HALPHA/PB)*(MY+P0L(1,L)*(P0L(3,L)-P0L(4,L)*AY))/ 783 GOTO 10 784 C. . . i n k i nd 785 12 G0T0(31 ,32,33,34,35,36),IS 786 C . . . 787 Q=(HALPHA*MY/PB)/((1.-HALPHA)*(1.+HALPHA*EQQ)) 788 GOTO 10 789 C . . . 790 31 A = POL( 1 ,L)*P0L(2,L) 791 IF(PAR(36).NE.0. )A=A*PAR(36) 792 CC Q=((( 1 . -A*GAMMAHALPHA))*HALPHA*MY-HALPHA*POL( 793 CC * *AY) / ((1.-A)*PB)) 794 Q=(HALPHA/PB)*(MY-POL(1,L)*P0L(4,L)*AY)/(1.-HALPHA* 795 GOTO 10 796 C . . . 797 32 0=(HALPHA/PB)*(MY+POL(1,L)*(POL(3,L)-POL(4 , L ) * A Y ) ) / 798 GOTO 10 799 C . . . j 800 33 Q=(HALPHA/PB)*MY/(1.-HALPHA*(POL(1,L)*(POL(2,L)-POL 801 GOTO 10 802 C . . . 803 34 Q=(HALPHA/PB)*(MY + P0L(1,L)*P0L(3,L))/(1.+HALPHA* ( PO 804 * -EQQ)) 805 GOTO 10 806 C . . . 807 35 Q=(HALPHA/PB)*MY/(1.-HALPHA*(POL(1,L)*(P0L(2,L)-POL 808 GOTO 10 809 C . . . 810 36 0=(HALPHA/PB)*(MY+P0L(1,L)*P0L(3,L))/ ^ 811 * (1.+HALPHA*(POL(1,L)*P0L(5,L)*AY-EOO)) ^ 812 GOTO 10 813 C . . . 814 C... p r i c e 815 13 PB = P0L( 1 ,L) + P0L(2,L) PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 816 0=(HALPHA*MY/PB)/(1.-HALPHA*EQQ) 817 GOTO 10 818 C . .. d i r e c t demand and s u p p l y 819 14 G0T0(41 ,42),IS 820 41 Q=((HALPHA/PB)*MY-POL(1,L)*POL(4,L)*AY/PB)/ 821 * ( (1.-POL(1,L)*P0L(2,L))*(1•-HALPHA*EQQ)) 822 GOTO 10 823 C . 824 42 0=(HALPHA/PB)*MY+(POL(1,L)*(POL(3,L)-POL(4,L)*AY))/ 825 GOTO 10 826 C . .. check MINQ 827 10 IF(0.LT.P0L(7,L))Q = P0L(7 , L) 828 C . . . check MAXR 829 IF(PB*O.GT.P0L(10,L))Q=P0L(10,L)/(PB*(1-EOO)) 830 C . 831 16 SUBA=SUB(IP,IS,L,AY,PB,0,999) 832 C . 833 IF(SUBA.LT.O.)0=0. 834 C . 835 Y=MY+SUBA+EQQ*PB*Q 836 CALL CL$UT(U,H,X,A,0,HALPHA,MY,Y,PB,PB,NZ,GAMMA 1) 837 IF(IP1 .EO.10)WRITE(1,1000)1,IP,IS,PB,0,Y,U,H,X,A 838 C . 839 PH = PB 840 QH = Q 841 UH = U 842 IF(0.LT.0M)0=O. 843 IF(Q.EQ.O.) U=0. 844 IF(U.EO.0.0)0=0.0 845 C . 846 RETURN 847 C . 848 C . .. PRICE QUANTITY AND UTILITY - EXISTING DWELLINGS 849 C . 850 ENTRY PQYE(IP,IS,L,J,PJ,Q,U,SUBA,PH,QH,UH) 851 U = 0.0 852 0 = 0.0 853 QI=DWD(1,J) 854 IZ=DWD(2,d) 855 C . 856 C . .. CL$PR COMPUTES A ROOT OF THE NON-LINEAR EQUATION FUN 857 C . .. METHOD USED IS A COMBINATION OF BISECTION AND THE SE 858 B=10. 859 C=0. 1 860 C . 861 IC=0 862 ACBS=ABS(B-C) 863 A = C 864 FA = FUN(IP,IS,A,L,MY,AY,HALPHA,PB,QI,EQQ,GAMMA 1) 865 FB = FUN(IP,IS,B,L,MY,AY,HALPHA,PB,QI,EQQ,GAMMA 1) 866 FC = FA PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 867 K0UNT=2 868 FX=AMAX1(ABS(FB),ABS(FC)) 869 51 IF(ABS(FC).GE.ABS(FB))GOTO 52 870 C . 871 C . .. INTERCHANGE B AND C SO THAT ABS(F(B).LE.ABS(F(C)) 872 C . 873 A = B 874 FA = FB 875 B = C 876 FB = FC 877 C = A 878 FC = FA 879 52 CMB=0.5*(C-B) 880 ACMB=ABS(CMB) 881 C . 882 C . .. TEST STOPPING CRITERION AND FUNCTION COUNT 883 C . 884 IF(ACMB.LE.TOL)GOTO 58 885 IF(KOUNT.GE.500)GOTO 62 886 C . 887 C . .. CALCULATE NEW ITERATE IMPLICITLY AS B+P/O 888 C . .. WHERE P.GE.O. THE IMPLICIT FORM IS USED TO 889 C . .. PREVENT OVERFLOW. 890 C . 891 P=(B-A)*FB 892 Q=FA-FB 893 IF(P.GE.0.0)GOTO 53 894 P = -P 895 Q = -Q 896 C . 897 C . .. UPDATE A. CHECK IF REDUCTION IN THE SIZE OF BRACKETI 898 C . .. INTERVAL IS SATISFACTORY. IF NOT, BISECT UNTIL IT IS 899 C . 900 53 A = B 901 FA = FB 902 IC=IC+1 903 IF(IC.LT.4)G0T0 54 904 IF(8.0*ACMB.GE.ACBS)G0T0 56 905 IC=0 906 ACBS=ACMB 907 C . 908 C . .. TEST FOR TOO SMALL A CHANGE 909 C . 910 54 IF(P.GT.ABS(0)*TOL)GOTO 55 91 1 C . 912 C . .. INCREMENT BY TOLERANCE 913 C . 914 B=B+SIGN(TOL,CMB) 915 GOTO 57 916 C . 917 C . .. ROOT OUGH TO BE BETWEEN B AND (C+B)/2 PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 918 C . 919 55 IF(P.GE.CMB*0)GOTO 56 920 C . 921 C . . . USE SECANT RULE 922 B=B+P/0 923 GOTO 57 924 C . 925 56 B=0.5*(C+B) 926 C . 927 C . .. HAVE COMPLETED COMPUTATION FOR NEW ITERATE B 928 C . 929 57 FB = FUN (IP, IS , B , L , MY , AY , HALPHA , PB , 01 , EQQ, GAMMA 1 930 IF(FB.EO.O .0)GOTO 59 931 IF(FB.EQ.- 1.E5)G0T0 62 932 K0UNT=K0UNT+1 933 IF(SIGN(1. 0,FB).NE.SIGN(1.0,FC))G0T0 51 934 C = A 935 FC = FA 936 GOTO 51 937 C . 938 C . . . FINISHED SET I FLAG 939 c. 940 58 IF(SIGN(1. 0,FB).EQ.SIGN(1.0,FC))GOTO 61 941 IF(ABS(FB) ,GT.FX)GOTO 60 942 IFLAG=1 943 GOTO 30 944 59 IF LAG = 2 945 GOTO 30 946 60 IFLAG=3 947 GOTO 30 948 61 IFLAG=4 949 B = 0.0 950 GOTO 30 951 62 IFLAG=5 952 B = 0.0 953 GOTO 30 954 c. 955 30 PJ=B 956 c. 957 Q=(BETA1+2 ./3.*BETA2*(PJ-P0)/PC) * QI 958 c. 959 c. .. CHECK MINQ 960 IF(IP.EQ.O)GOTO 165 96 1 IF(Q.GE.P0L(7,L))G0T0 65 962 Q=P0L(7,L) 963 PJ=((Q/QI- BETA1)*PC/(2./3.*BETA2))+ PO 964 c. 965 c. .. check MAXR 966 65 IF(PJ*Q.LT .POL(10,L))GOTO 165 967 c. 968 IF(IP1 .EQ. 10)WRITE(1,1000)J,IP,IS.PJ.Q PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 9G9 C . . . 970 AC=1 . 971 BC=-(BETA1-(2./3.*BETA2*P0/PC))*QI 972 CC=-(2./3.*BETA2*P0L(10,L)/PC)*OI 973 C . . . 974 I F ( I P 1 .EO. 10)WRITE(1, 1001)AC,BC,CC 975 1001 F0RMAT(T10,3F15.5) 97G Q=QDD(AC,BC,CC) 977 C . . . 978 P<J=( (Q/QI-BETA1 )*PC/(2 ./3 . *BETA2 ) )+ PO 979 C : . . 980 C . . . 981 165 SUBA = SUB(IP, IS , L , AY , PJ , Q , <J ) 982 C . . . 983 IF(SUBA.LT.O.)0=0. 984 C . . . 985 Y=MY+SUBA+EQQ*Pu*Q 986 CALL CL$UT(U,H,X,A,Q,HALPHA,MY,Y,PJ,PB,IZ,GAMMA 1) 987 PH = PJ 988 QH = Q 989 UH = U 990 IF(PJ.LT.PO) U=0.0 991 IF(U.EO.O.0)0=0.0 992 C . . . 993 IF(IP1.EO.10)WRITE(1,1000)J,IP,IS,Pu,Q,Y,U,H,X,A,KO 994 RETURN 1 995 C . . . 996 1000 F0RMAT(I4,2I2,2F8.2,2F8.O,3F8.2,2I5) 997 END 998 C . . . 999 FUNCTION ODD(A,B,C) 1000 C . . . 1001 QDD=0. 1002 C . . . 1003 D=B**2 -4*A*C 1004 IF(D.LE.O.)RETURN 1005 D=SORT(D). 1006 C . . . 1007 IF(A.E0.O.)G0T0 1 1008 IF(B.GE.O.)X1=-(B+D)/(2.*A) 1009 IF(B.LT.0.)X1=(D-B)/(2.*A) 1010 X2=C/(X1*A) 101 1 0DD=X1 1012 IF(X1 .LT.O. )0DD = X2 1013 RETURN 1014 C . . . 1015 1 ODD=-C/B 1016 RETURN 1017 END 1018 C . . . 1019 C . . . PR0GRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 1020 FUNCTION FUN(IP,IS,PJ,L,MY,AY,A 1,PB,QI.EOO,GAMMA 1) 1021 REAL*4 MY 1022 C0MM0N/BLK21/DUM(3O58),DWD(3,502),Z0D(3,11),PAR(40) 1023 EQUIVALENCE (PAR(4 ) ,BETA 1),(PAR(5),BETA2),(PAR(6),P 1024 C. . . 1025 D=(PB/PJ+GAMMA1*(1 .-A1 )*(1.-PB/Pd))*A 1/PB 102G S=(BETA1+2./3.*BETA2*(Pd-P0)/PC) * QI 1027 E=D*EQQ*Pd 1028 FUN=-1.E5 1029 C . . . 1030 GOTO( 1 ,2,3,4,5),IP 1031 C... BASIC FUNCTION 1032 FUN=D*MY/(1.-E) -S 1033 RETURN 1034 C. . . i ncome 1035 1 IF(E.EQ.1.)RETURN 1036 FUN=D*(MY+P0L(1,L)*(P0L(3,L)-P0L(4,L)*AY))/(1.-E) -1037 RETURN 1038 C. . . i n-k i nd 1039 2 G0T0(21,22,23,24,25,26),IS 1040 C . . . 1041 IF( ( 1 .-Pd*D)*( 1 .-E).EQ.O.)RETURN 1042 FUN=(D*MY)/((1.-Pd*D)*(1.-E)) -S 1043 RETURN 1044 C . . . 1045 21 A = POL( 1 ,L)*P0L(2,L) 1046 IF(PAR(36).NE.O.)A=A*PAR(36) 1047 CC D=(PB/PJ+GAMMA1*(1 .-A 1 )*((1 .-A)-PB/Pd))*A1/(PB*(1.-1048 CC FUN=D*MY - A 1*POL(1,L)*POL(4,L)*AY/((1.-A)*Pd) - S 1049 IF( 1 .-D*A*Pd.EQ.E)RETURN 1050 FUN=D*(MY-POL(1,L)*P0L(4,L)*AY)/(1.-D*A*Pd-E) -S 1051 RETURN 1052 C . . . 1053 22 FUN = D*(MY + POL(1,L)*(POL(3,L)-POL(4,L)*AY))/( 1 .-E) -1054 RETURN 1055 C . . . 1056 23 IF(D*POL(1,L)*(P0L(2,L)-P0L(5,L))*Pd-E.EQ.1)RETURN 1057 FUN=D*MY/(1.-D*P0L(1,L)*(P0L(2,L)-P0L(5,L))*PJ-E) -1058 RETURN 1059 C . . . 1060 24 FUN = D*(MY+P0L(1,L)*P0L(3,L))/(1.+D*POL(1 , L)*P0L(5, L 1061 RETURN 1062 C. . . 1063 25 FUN = D*MY/(1 .-D*POL( 1 ,L)*(P0L(2,L)-P0L(5,L)*AY)*Pd-E 1064 RETURN 1065 C. . . 1066 26 FUN=D*(MY+P0L(1,L)*P0L(3,L))/(1.+D*POL(1,L)*P0L(5,L 1067 RETURN 1068 C. . . pr i ce 1069 3 A=(P0-P0L(3,L)) + (PC-P0L(4, L )) 1070 FUN=(D*MY)/((1.-D*A)*(1.-E)) -S PR0GRAM:F09:SIMO1.FORT 1071 RETURN 1072 C .• d i r e c t demand 1073 4 G0T0(41,42),IS 1074 C . 1075 4 1 FUN=(D*MY-POL( 1 , L ) *POL( 4 , L) *AY/Pd )/( 1 .-POL( 1 ,L ^ POL-1076 RETURN 1077 C . 1078 42 FUN=(D*MY+POL(1,L)*(POL(3,L)-POL(4,L)*AY)/Pd)/ ( 1.-E 1079 RETURN 1080 C . 1081 C . d i r e c t supply 1082 5 G0T0(51 ,52),IS 1083 C . 1084 51 FUN=D*MY/(1.-E)-(S-POL(1,L)*POL(4,L)*AY/PJ)/(1.-POL 1085 RETURN 1086 C . 1087 52 FUN=D*MY/(1.-E)-(S+P0L(1,L)*(POL(3,L)-POL(4,L)*AY)/ 1088 RETURN 1089 C . 1090 END 1091 C . 1092 SUBROUTINE UTILL 1093 C . r o u t i n e to c a l c u l a t e u t i l i t y 1094 REAL*4 MY -1095 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(502,6),HHT(10,4),DWD(3,50 1096 * ,PAR(40) 1097 EQUIVALENCE (QM,PAR(8)),(GAMMA3,PAR(3)),(AMAX,PAR(1 1098 C . 1099 ENTRY CL$UT(U,UHS,UX,UA,0,HALPHA,MY,Y,P,PB,IZ , GAMMA 1 100 C . 1 101 U=0.0 1 102 C . 1 103 IF(Y-Q*P-GAMMA1*(1.-HALPHA)*MY.LE.0.0)RETURN 1 104 IF(Q.LE.GAMMA1*HALPHA*MY/PB)RETURN 1 105 C . 1 106 UHS = EXP(HALPHA*ALOG(Q-(GAMMA 1*HALPHA*MY/PB))) 1 107 UX = EXP((1.-HALPHA)*AL0G((Y-Q*P)-GAMMA 1 *(1.-HALPHA)* 1 108 UA=EXP(GAMMA3/10.*AL0G(2.-Z0D(2,IZ)/AMAX)) 1 109 C . 1 1 10 U=UHS*UX*UA 1111 C . 1112 RETURN 1113 END 1114 C . 1115 C . 1116 SUBROUTINE CALC2 1117 INTEGER*4 J0(2,3) 1118 REAL*4 SKEY(120),S0L(120,4),PDW(120),0(3),SKS(120) 1119 INTEGER*2 NDW(120),IODW(120,120),UAHH(120),ISUB(120 1 120 * ,IS0L(12O,2) 1121 INTEGER*2 DWC(3,120,120) PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 1 122 C0MM0N/BLK8/NDW,IODW.DWC,ISUB.UAHH,ISOL.SOL 1 123 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(502,6),HHT(10,4),DWD(3, 1 1 24 * ,PAR(40),POL(10,4),EXT(2,2, 12) ,ZW(11),IC1(20) 1 125 EQUIVALENCE (IC1(1),NZ),(IC1(2),NMD),(IC1(3),NHT) 1 126 * ,(IC1 (5),NMD 1),(IC1(6) ,MSIZE),(IC1(10),NS) 1 127 * ,(PAR(2),GAMMA2) 1 128 * ,(PAR(6),P0),(PAR(7),PC),(PAR(28),SUBM) 1 129 C 1 130 EQUIVALENCE (SOL(1,4),PDW(1),SKEY(1)) 1131 C 1 132 ENTRY SRT$1(Kd) 1 133 C . . . s o r t i ng rout i ne 1 134 C ... o r d e r a l l households by "model" income to UAHH 1 135 C ... o r d e r each household's d w e l l i n g s t a c k i n terms of i 1 136 C ut i 1 i ty to IODW 1 137 C 1 138 IF(Kd.EQ.2)GOTO 4 1 139 C . 1 140 C . .. s o r t i n g households by "model" income 1141 DO 1 1=1,NHH 1 142 1 SKEY(I ) =HHD(1,3) 1 143 C . 1 144 DO 3 K=1,NHH 1 145 IS=0 1 146 X=0. 1 147 C , 1 148 DO 2 N=1,NHH 1 149 IF(SKEY(N).LE.X)GOTO 2 1 150 X=SKEY(N) 1151 IS = N 1 152 2 CONTINUE 1 153 C . 1 154 SKEY(IS)=-1. 1 155 3 UAHH(K)=IS 1 156 C . 1 157 UAHH(NHH+1)=NHH+1 1 158 C . 1 159 C . .. s o r t i n g dwel1ing s t a c k 1 160 C . 1161 4 DO 10 1=1,NHH 1 162 C . D READ(8'I)DWC 1 163 IH = I 1 164 C . D IH=1 1 165 DO 25 J=1,MSIZE 1 166 25 IODW(IH,d)=0 1 167 C . 1 168 DO 11 J=1,NMD1 1 169 IZ=DWD(2,J) 1 170 SKEY(J)=DWC(2,IH,d)*ZW(IZ) 1171 SKS(d)=0. 1 172 IF(SUBM.EO.O.)G0T0 1 1 PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 1 173 SKS (<J ) =ISUB( I ,d) 1 174 IF(SKEY(d).EO.O.)SKS(d)=9.1E10 1 175 11 CONTINUE 1 176 C . 1 177 DO 13 d=1,NMD 1 1 178 IS=0 1 179 X=0. 1 180 C . 1 181 S=9.E10 1 182 C . 1 183 IF(SUBM.EO.O.)GOTO 14 1 184 C . 1 185 C . . . f i n d lowest s u b s i d y amount 1 186 DO 15 N=1,NMD 1 1 187 15 IF(SKS(N).LT.S)S=SKS(N) 1 188 C . 1 189 14 DO 12 N=1,NMD 1 1 190 IF(SKS(N).GT.S)GOTO 12 1 191 IF(SKEY(N).LE.X)GOTO 12 1 192 X=SKEY(N) 1 193 IS = N 1 194 12 CONTINUE 1 195 IF(X.LE.0.)GOTO 10 1 196 SKEY(IS)=-1. 1 197 SKS(IS)=9 . 1E10 1 198 IODW(IH,d)=IS 1 199 IF(IS.E0.NMD1)G0T0 10 1200 C . 1201 13 CONTINUE 1202 10 CONTINUE 1203 C . D10 WRITE(7'I)IODW 1204 RETURN 1205 C . 1206 C . .. c a l c u l a t i n g TOTAL " u t i l i t y " each run 1207 C . r e l a t i v e wealth u t i l i t y 1208 C . 1209 ENTRY CL$4 1210 C . 1211 DO 22 IZ=1,NZ 1212 22 ZW(IZ)=EXP(GAMMA2/10.*ALOG(EXT(1, 1,IZ) )) 1213 C . 1214 C . 1215 RETURN 1216 C . 1217 C . .. a l l o c a t e households among d w e l l i n g s 1218 C . 1219 ENTRY CL$5(IP) 1220 C . 1221 IS = 0 1222 10=0 1223 C . PROGRAM:F09:SI MO 1 .FORT 1224 DO 26 1=1,MSIZE 1225 NDW(I)=0 1226 DO 27 J=1,4 1227 27 SOL(I,J)=0.0 1228 DO 26 J=1,2 1229 26 ISOL(I,d)=0 1230 C . . . 1231 IF(IP.EO.10)WRITE(6,101) 1232 101 FORMATC1'/' *** t r a c i n g HOUSEHOLD ASSIGMENTs'// 1233 * 3 ( ' HHOLD DWELL PRICE ')) 1234 C . . . 1235 DO 44 IS=1,NHH 1236 C . . . 1237 NH=UAHH(IS) 1238 C . . . 1239 NX = UAHH(IS+1 ) 1240 C . . . 1241 C... LOOP START FOR DISPLACED HOUSEHOLD 1242 43 CONTINUE 1243 C D READ(7'NH)I0DW 1244 C D READ (8 'NH )DWC 1245 N=NH 1246 C D N=1 1247 C. . . 1248 C... LOOP START FOR UNALLOCATED HOUSEHOLD 1249 45 ND=IODW(N,1) 1250 PJ=DWC(3,N,ND) 1251 I F ( I P .NE. 10)GOTO 46 1252 C . . . 1253 C... copy to " t r a c e " output 1254 10=10+1 1255 J0(1,I0)=NH 1256 J0(2,I0)=ND 1257 0(IO)=Pd 1258 C. . . 1259 IF(I0.LT.3)G0T0 46 1260 C. . . 1261 WRITE(6,1O2)((J0(I,d),I=1,2),0(d),d=1,I0) 1262 102 F0RMAT(3(13,16,F1 1 .3,2X) ) 1263 10=0 1264 C... 1265 C . popping household's d w e l l i n g s t a c k 1266 46 DO 41 d=1 , NMD 1267 I0DW(N,d)=I0DW(N,d+1) 1268 IF(IODW(N.d).EQ.O)G0T0 42 1269 41 CONTINUE 1270 C. . . 1271 C... no d w e l l i n g a v a i l a b l e ? 1272 42 IF(ND.E0.O)G0T0 50 1273 IH=NDW(ND) 1274 C... i f new: s e l e c t PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 1275 IF(ND.EQ.NMD1)G0T0 51 1276 C i f b i d p r i c e l e s s than or equal to c u r r e n t : s e l e c t n e 1277 IF(Pd.LE.PDW(ND))GOTO 45 1278 C . a l l o c a t i n g to a s s i g n e d s t a c k 1279 C D WRITE(7'NH)I0DW 1280 C D FIND(7'NX) 1281 C D FIND(8'NX) 1282 NDW(ND)=NH 1283 PDW(ND)=Pd 1284 51 IS0L(NH,1)=ND 1285 S0L(NH,1)=DWC(3,N,ND) 1 286 S0L(NH,2)=DWC(1,N,ND) 1287 S0L(NH,3)=DWC(2,N,ND) 1288 C . DWELLING EMPTY(INCLUDING NEW) 1289 IF(IH.EQ.O)GOT0 44 1290 C . HOUSEHOLD DISPLACED - LOOP INTERNALLY 1291 NH=IH 1292 C D FIND(7'IH) 1293 C D FIND(8'IH) 1294 GOTO 43 1295 C 1296 C . NO NEW DWELLING 1297 50 IS0L(NH,1)=-1 1298 C 1299 44 CONTINUE 1300 C 1301 IF(I0.NE.0)WRITE(6,102)((JO(I,d),1 = 1,2),0(d),d=1 , 10 1302 C 1303 C . c a l c u l a t i n g s o l u t i o n s e t . 1304 DO 62 1=1,NHH 1305 IH=I 1306 C D IH=1 1307 ND=IS0L(I,1) 1308 IF(ND . GT.0)GOTO 63 1309 C D READ(8'I)DWC 1310 C 1311 C no dwe11i ng 1312 C . h i g h e s t b i d 1313 ND=1 13 14 Pd = DWC(3,IH, 1 ) 1315 DO 66 d=2,NMD 1316 IF(DWC(3,IH,d).LE.Pd)GOTO 66 1317 ND = d 1318 Pd=DWC(3,IH,d) 1319 66 CONTINUE 1320 C 1321 I SOL(I,1) = -ND 1322 SOL(I , 1 ) = Pd/1000. 1323 SOL(I , 2)=DWC(1,IH.ND) 1324 SOL(I ,3.)=DWC(2, IH.ND) 1325 GOTO 62 PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 132G 63 CONTINUE 1327 C . D IF(NS.NE.0)READ(9'I)ISUB 1328 IS0L(I,2)=ISUB(IH,ND) 1329 SOL(I,1)=SOL(I,1)/1000. 1330 SOL( I , 2) = SOL(I,2)/10. 1331 IZ=DWD(2,ND) 1332 SOL( I ,3)=SOL(I,3)/10.*ZW(IZ) 1333 IF(ND.EQ.NMD 1)I SOL(I, 1)=999 1334 62 CONTINUE 1335 C . 1336 RETURN 1337 C . 1338 C . 1339 ENTRY CL$10(SER) 1340 C . c a l c u l a t i n g a c t u a l e x t e r n a l i t i e s 1341 C . 1342 DO 21 IZ=1,12 1343 DO 21 J=1,2 1344 EXT(2 , J,IZ)=EXT(1,J,IZ) 1345 21 EXT( 1 ,J,IZ)=0. 1346 C. 1347 C . 1348 DO 23 1=1,NHH 1349 C . 1350 J=ISOL(I,1) 1351 IF(d.LE.O)GOTO 23 1352 IF(J.EQ.999)d=NMD1 1353 IF(IS0L(I,2).EQ.99)GOTO 23 1354 IZ=DWD(2,J) 1355 C . 1356 EXT( 1,1,IZ) = EXT(1,1,IZ)+HHD(I,1) 1357 EXT(1,2,IZ)=EXT(1,2,IZ)+1 1358 C . 1359 EXT( 1,1,12) = EXT( 1,1, 1 2 )+HHD(I,1) 1360 EXT( 1 ,2, 12) = EXT( 1 ,2, 12) + 1 1361 23 CONTINUE 1362 C . 1363 C . c a l c u l a t i n g r e l a t i v e "wealth" 1364 EXT( 1 , 1 , 12) = EXT( 1,1, 12)/EXT( 1,2,12) 1365 C . 1366 DO 24 IZ=1,NZ 1367 IF(EXT(1,2,IZ).EQ.O)G0T0 34 1368 EXT( 1 , 1 ,IZ) = (EXT(1, 1,IZ)/EXT( 1 ,2,IZ))/EXT( 1369 GOTO 24 1370 34 EXT( 1 , 1 ,IZ) = 1 . 1371 24 CONTINUE 1372 C . 1373 C . c a l c u l a t i n g e r r o r on e x t e r n a l i t i e s 1374 C . 1375 SER=0. 1376 DO 30 IZ=1,NZ PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 1377 30 SER=SER+(EXT(1,1,IZ)-EXT(2,1,IZ))**2 1378 C . . . 1379 SER=SQRT(SER)/(2.*NZ) 1380 RETURN 1381 END 1382 C . . . 1383 SUBROUTINE OTSDAT 1384 C... output of the input d a t a . 1385 INTEGER*4 IGIVEN(9),IWR1(10),IWR2(10),IWR3(10) 1386 REAL*4 DAT(5),ALPHA(120),SOL(120,4),DU1(200) 1387 INTEGER*2 E0(5O2) 1388 REAL*4 WR1(10),WR2(10),WR3(10),WR4(10),WR5(10),WRS( 1389 INTEGER*2 IODW(120, 120),UAHH(120),I SUB(120,120) 1390 * ,NDW(120),IS0L(120,2) 1391 INTEGER*2 DWC(3,120,120) 1392 C0MM0N/BLK8/NDW,IODW.DWC,ISUB.UAHH,I SOL,SOL 1393 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(502,6),HHT(10,4),DWD(3,50 1394 * ,PAR(40),POL(10,4),EXT(2,2,12),ZW(11),IC1(20),IPOL 1395 EQUIVALENCE (IC1(1),NZ),(IC1(2),NMD),(IC1(3),NHT), ( 1396 * ,(IC1(5),NMD1),(IC1(10),NS),(IC1(11),IGIVEN(1)) 1397 * ,(PAR(6),P0),(PAR(7),PC),(PAR(8),QM) 1398 * ,(PAR(9),PN) 1399 * ,(PAR(26),YFORM),(PAR(27),COEF),(PAR(37),PPP) 1400 * ,(PAR(21),DAT( 1 )) 1401 C... 1402 EQUIVALENCE (DU1(101),WR1(1)),(DU1(111), WR2(1)),(DU 1403 * ,(DU 1(131),WR4(1)),(DU1(141),WR5(1)),( DU1(151), WR6 1404 * ,(DU 1(161),WR7(1)),(DU1(171),IWR1(1)),(DU1(181),IW 1405 * ,(DU 1 (191),IWR3(1)) 1406 * ,(DU1(1),NDW(1),ALPHA (1)) 1407 C . . . 1408 ENTRY 0T$1 1409 WRITE(6,101) 1410 101 FORMATC1'/' HOUSING MARKET SIMULATION PACKAGE'// 1411 *' PROGRAM: "SIM01.FORT" : DEVELOPED AT '// 1412 *' UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA : JUNE 79 - FEB 81 1413 RETURN 1414 C .. . r, 1415 ENTRY 0T$2(NER,IP1) 1416 IF(NER.EQ.2)G0T0 2 1417 C. . . 1418 I F ( I P 1 .EQ.O)RETURN 1419 WRITE(6,99)TITLE 1420 C . . . 1421 IF(YFORM.NE.0.)WRITE(6,822 ) 1422 822 FORMAT ( ' USING "ACTUAL" INCOME DATA') 7j} 1423 C. . . ^ 1424 IF(IP1.EQ.1.OR.IP1.EQ.11)GOTO 34 1425 99 F0RMAT(/2X,6A4/) 1426 C... 1427 WRITE(6,114)NHH PR0GRAM:FO9:5IMO1.FORT 1428 114 FORMAT(/' *** INPUT DATA'/ 1429 * /' *** "1CMA" MODEL HOUSEHOLDS:',T40,'number 1430 * ,14) 1431 IF=0 1432 4 IS=IF+1 1433 IF=IS+9 1434 IF(IF.GT.NHH)IF=NHH 1435 WRITE(6,115)((I),I=IS,IF) 1436 WRITE(6,116)(HHD(I,1),I=IS,IF) 1437 WRITE(6,117)(HHD(I,2),I = IS, IF) 1438 IF(YFORM.EO.2. )WRITE(6, 151)(EO(I) , I = IS , I F) 1439 C . . . 1440 IF(NS.E0.0.0R.HHD(IS,4).E0.O.O)G0T0 810 1441 WRITE(6,811)(HHD(I,4),I=IS,IF) 1442 WRITE(6,126)(HHD(I,5),I=IS,IF) 1443 WRITE(6,127)(HHD(I,6),I=IS,IF) 1444 811 FORMAT(' BASE DATA '/' DWELLING ',1X,10F6.0) 1445 810 IF(IP1 .EO.2)G0T0 34 1446 I F ( I F . LT.NHH)GOTO 4 1447 C. . . 1448 115 FORMAT(/' household ',1016) 1449 116 FORMAT(/' income '.2X.10F6.0) 1450 117 FORMAT(' type ',1X,10F6.0) 1451 151 FORMATC "/EQUITY ',1X,10(' .',14)) 1452 C . . . 1453 34 WRITE(6,110)NHT 1454 110 FORMAT(/' *** "2CMA" HOUSEHOLD TYPE GROUPS: ',T40,' 1455 * ,14) 1456 C... 1457 WRITE(6,111)((I),1=1,NHT) 1458 WRITE(6,112)(HHT(I,1),1=1,NHT) 1459 WRITE(6,113)(HHT(I,2),1=1,NHT) 1460 IF(HHT(1,4).NE.0)WRITE(6,823)(HHT(I,4),I=1,NHT) 1461 WRITE(6,821)COEF 1462 C. . . 1463 111 FORMAT(/' TYPE group ',1016) 1464 112 FORMAT(/' income ',2X,10F6.0) 1465 113 FORMAT(' a l p h a ',1X,10(F5.4,1X)) 1466 821 FORMAT(/' ALPHA ADJUSTMENT FACTOR',T30,F10.5) 1467 823 FORMAT(' TENURE '.10F6.0) 1468 C . . . 1469 I F ( I P 1 .EO•1)GOTO 799 1470 IF(IP1 .EO. 11 )RETURN 1471 WRITE(6,106)NMD 1472 106 FORMAT(/' *** "3CMA" MODEL DWELLINGS:',T40,'number ^ 1473 C. . . Ul 1474 IF=0 LT. 1475 3 IS=IF+1 1476 IF=IS+9 1477 I F( I F . GT.NMD)IF = NMD 1478 WRITE(6,107)((J),U=IS,IF) PROGRAM:F09:5IM01.FORT 1479 WRIT E(G,108)(DWD(1,J),J=IS,IF ) 1480 WRITE(6, 109 ) (DWD( 2 , d) , <J = IS , IF) 148 1 IF(DWD(3,J).NE.0.0)WRITE(6,823)(DWD(3,J),d=IS,IF) 1482 IF(IP1 .E0.2)G0T0 35 1483 IF(IF.LT.NMD)G0T0 3 1484 C . . . 1485 107 FORMAT(/' d w e l l i n g ',1016) 1486 108 FORMAT(/' s e r v i c e s '.2X.10F6.0) 1487 109 FORMATC zone ',1X,10F6.0) 1488 C . . . 1489 35 WRITE(6,102)NZ 1490 102 FORMAT(/' *** "40 " ZONAL CHARACTERISTICS: '.T40,' 1491 ' * 12) 1492 WRITE(6,103)((I),I=1,NZ) 1493 WRITE(6,104)(ZOD(1,1),1=1,NZ) 1494 WRITE(6,105)(Z0D(2,I),1=1.NZ) 1495 C. . . 1496 103 FORMAT(/' ZONE number',1016) 1497 104 FORMAT(/' "wealth" ',2X,10F6.0) 1498 105 FORMAT ( ' d i s t a n c e ' , 1X ,.10F6.0) 1499 C . . . 1500 799 WRITE(6,120)(PAR(I),1=1,5),(DAT(I),1=1,5) 1501 120 FORMAT(/' *** "50. " BEHAVIOURAL PARAMETERS'// 1502 *' GAMMA 1 GAMMA2 GAMMA3 BETA 1 BETA2'/ 1503 *' ( p r i c e ) (wealth) ( a c c e s s ) (depre.) ( e l a s t ) ' / 1504 * 2(F8.4,4F10.4/)) 1505 C . . . 1506 C . . . 1507 WRITE(6,121)P0,PC.QM 1508 121 FORMAT(/' *** "60 " CONSTRUCTION CHARACTERISTICS'/ 1509 *' PO PC QM ' 1510 * /F8.2.2F10.2) 1511 C... 1512 IF(NS.EQ.O)RETURN 1513 C . . . 1514 WRITE(6,160)((I),I = 1,10),((I POL(I,K),1 = 1,2),(POL(I , 1515 * ,K=1,4) 1516 160 FORMAT(/' *** 80 POLICY PARAMETERS'// 1517 * ' o p t i o n ' , 10('POL' ,12,2X)/4(I4, ' . ',I 1, 10F7.2/)) 1518 " WRITE(6,161)((I),I=1,10),(HHT(I,3),I=1,10) 1519 161 FORMAT(/' ELIGIBILITY BY TYPE:'/1016/1X,10F6.0) 1520 IF(IGIVENf1).NE.0)WRITE(6,162)IGIVEN 1521 162 FORMAT(/' PUBLIC HOUSING: option',14/1016) 1522 IF(PPP.NE.0.0)WRITE(6, 163)PPP 1523 163 FORMAT(/' p u r c h a s i n g power a d j u s t o r ' , F 1 0 . 4 ) 1524 IF(PAR(36).NE.0.)WRITE(6,164)PAR(36) 1525 164 F0RMAT(7' p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y a d j u s t o r ' , F 1 0 . 4 ) 1526 C . . . 1527 RETURN 1528 C . . . 1529 C... INPUT ERROR PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 1530 2 WRITE(6,129) 1531 129 FORMAT(/' *** ERROR i n input data stopped e x e c u t i o n 1532 STOP 1533 C 1534 ENTRY 0T$3(IP1) 1535 C 153S WRITE(6,99)TITLE 1537 I F ( I P 1 .LE.1)RETURN 1538 C 1539 WRITE(6,122) 1540 122 FORMAT(/' *** HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS:') 154 1 C 1542 IF=0 1543 5 IS=IF+1 1544 IF=IS+9 1545 I F ( I F . GT.NHH)IF =NHH 1546 C 1547 WRITE(6,115)((I),I=IS,IF) 1548 WRITE(6,113)(ALPHA(I),I=IS.IF) 1549 WRITE(6, 1 18)(HHD(I,1),I = IS,IF) 1550 WRITE(6, 1 19)(HHD(I,3),I = IS.IF) 1551 IF(IP1 ,E0.2)G0T0 36 1552 I F ( I F . LT.NHH)GOTO 5 1553 C 1554 1 18 FORMAT(' "Y":actual',1X,10F6.0) 1555 1 19 FORMAT(' "Y":mode1 ',1X,10F6.0) 1556 36 WRITE(6,123)TITLE 1557 123 FORMATC1'/' *** PRICE, QUANTITY and " p a r t i a l " UTIL 1558 C 1559 DO 6 1=1,NHH 1560 IH=I 1561 C D IH=1 1562 WRITE(6,124)1 1563 124 FORMAT(/' (Household',13,')') 1564 C . D READ(8'I)DWC 1565 C . D IF(NS.NE.0)READ(9'I)ISUB 1566 C 1567 IF=0 1568 7 IS=IF+1 1569 IF=IS+9 1570 I F ( I F .GT.NMD1)IF = NMD1 1571 K=0 1572 DO 60 J=IS,IF 1573 K = K+1 1574 WR1(K)=DWC(3,I,U)/1000. 1575 WR2(K)=DWC(1,I,J)/10. 1576 60 WR3(K)=DWC(2,I,J)/10. 1577 C . 1578 WRITE(6,125)((J),J=IS,IF) 1579 WRITE(6,126)(WR1(J),J=1,K) 1580 WRITE(6,127)(WR2(d),J=1,K) PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 1581 WRITE(6,128)(WR3(d),J=1 ,K) 1582 IF(NS.NE.O)WRITE(6, 147)(I SUB(IH,J),J = IS,IF) 1583 IF(IP1 .EQ.2.AND.IF.GE.20)RETURN 1584 IF( IF . LT.NMD 1)GOTO 7 1585 C. . . 1586 125 FORMAT(/' DWELLING ',1016) 1587 126 FORMAT(/' p r i c e '.1X.10F6.3) 1588 127 FORMAT(' q u a n t i t y ',1X,10F6.1) 1589 128 FORMAT(' partia1"U"',1X,10F6.0) 1590 139 FORMAT(' U t i l i t y ',1X,10F6.O) 1591 146 FORMAT(' "P"*"Q" ',1X,10F6.1) 1592 147 FORMAT(' SUBSIDY'/' :type',5X,1016) 1593 148 FORMAT(' :AMOUNT '.10F6.0) 1594 6 CONTINUE 1595 RETURN 1596 C. . . 1597 ENTRY 0T$4(IP1) 1598 WRITE(6,138)TITLE 1599 138 FORMATCO'/' *** "TOTAL" UTILITY: ',6A4) 1600 C . . . 1601 DO 20 1=1,NHH 1602 C D READ(8'I)DWC 1603 WRITE(6,124)1 1604 C. . . 1605 IF=0 1606 27 IS=IF+ 1 1607 IF=IS+9 1608 I F ( I F . GT.NMD 1)IF =NMD1 1609 K=0 1610 DO 61 d = IS,IF 1611 K=K+1 1612 IZ=DWD(2,d) 1613 61 WR 1 (K ) =DWC(2,I,d)/10.* ZW(IZ) 1614 C. . . 1615 WRITE(6,125)((J),d=IS,IF) 1616 WRITE(6,139)(WR1(d),d=1,K) 1617 IF(IP1 .EQ.2.AND.IF.GE.20)RETURN 1618 32 IF( IF . LT.NMD1)GOTO 27 1619 20 CONTINUE 1620 RETURN 1621 C... 1622 C. . . 1623- ENTRY 0T$4A(IP1) 1624 C... s o r t e d s t a c k s output 1625 WRITE(6,131)(UAHH(I),1=1,NHH) 1626 131 FORMAT(/' *** ORDERED HOUSEHOLD STACK'// 1627 * 8( 1X, 1514/)) 1628 WRITE(6,132) 1629 132 FORMAT(//' *** HOUSEHOLD''s "ordered" d w e l l i n g STAC 1630 C . . . 1631 DO 38 1=1,NHH PR0GRAM:FO9:SIMO1.FORT 1632 C . D READ(7'I)I0DW 1633 38 WRITE(6,133)1,(IODW(I,J), d=1,NMD 1) 1634 133 FORMAT(/' household',I4//8( 1X, 1514/) ) 1635 RETURN 1636 C . 1637 c. 1638 ENTRY 0T$5 1639 c. . . a l 1 o c a t l o n e d d w e l l i n g s - h o u s e h o l d s output 1640 WRITE(6,134) 1641 134 FORMATC1'/' *** ALLOCATION of HOUSEHOLDS'/' 1642 c. 1643 IF=0 1644 9 I S= I F+1 1645 IF=IS+9 1646 IF( I F . GT.NMD)IF =NMD 1647 K=0 1648 DO 10 J = IS,IF 1649 K = K+1 1650 WR1(K)=0. 1651 WR2(K)=0. 1652 WR3(K)=0. 1653 WR4(K)=0. 1654 WR5(K)=0. 1655 WR6(K)=0. 1656 WR7(K)=0. 1657 IWR1(K)=0 1658 IWR2(K)=0 1659 c. 1660 DO 70 1=1,NHH 1661 IF(IS0L(I,1).EO.J)G0T0 71 1662 70 CONTINUE 1663 GOTO 10 1664 c. 1665 71 IWR1(K)=I 1666 WR1 (K)=HHD(I,2) 1667 WR2(K)=S0L(I,2) 1668 WR3(K ) =SOL(I,3) 1669 WR4(K)=DWD(2,J) 1670 WR5(K ) = SOL(I, 1 )*SOL(I.2) 167 1 WR6(K ) = SOL(I, 1) 1672 c. .. CALCULATE SUBSIDY 1673 IF(NS.EO.O)GOTO 10 1674 IWR2(K)=ISOL(I,2) 1675 WR7(K)=S0L(I,4) 1676 10 CONTINUE 1677 . c. 1678 WRITE(6,125)((J),J=IS,IF) 1679 WRITE(6,109)(WR4(J),J=1,K) 1680 WRITE(6,115)(IWR1(J),d=1,K) 1681 WRITE(6,117)(WR1(J),J=1,K) 1682 WRITE(6,139)(WR3(J),J=1,K) PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 1683 WRITE(6,126)(WR6(J),d=1,K) 1684 WRITE(6,127)(WR2(d),d=1,K) 1685 WRITE(6, 146) (WR5(d),d=1,K) 1686 C... OUTPUT SUBSIDY 1687 IF(NS.EQ.O)GOTO 44 1688 WRITE(6,147)(IWR2(d),d=1,K) 1689 WRITE(6,148)(WR7(d),d=1,K) 1690 C . . . 1691 44 I F ( I F . LT.NMD)G0T0 9 1692 C . . . 1693 C... new d w e l l i n g s a l l o c a t e d 1694 37 WRITE(6,135) 1695 135 FORMATC'O'/' *** ALLOCATION OF HOUSEHOLDS'/ 1696 C . . . 1697 1=0 1698 1 1 IS=I + 1 1699 d=0 1700 DO 12 I=IS,NHH 1701 I F(I SOL(I,1).NE.999)GOTO 12 1702 d = d+1 1703 IWR1(J)=I 1704 WR1(J)=HHD(1,2) 1705 WR2(d)=S0L(I,2) 1706 WR3(d)=S0L(I,1)*S0L(I,2) 1707 WR4(J ) = SOL(1,3) 1708 WR5(J)=SOL(1,1) 1709 C... SUBSIDY 1710 IF(NS.EQ.O)GOTO 41 1711 IWR2(d)=IS0L(I,2) 1712 WR6(d)=S0L(I,4) 1713 41 IF(d.EO.10)GOTO 14 1714 12 CONTINUE 1715 IF(IF.E0.O.AND.d.EQ.O)G0T0 13 1716 IF(d.NE.O)GOTO 14 1717 WRITE(6,144) 1718 144 FORMAT(/' NO NEW DWELLINGS CREATED') 1719 GOTO 13 1720 C . . . 1721 14 IF=0 1722 WRITE(6,115)(IWR1(K),K=1,d) 1723 WRITE(6,117) (WR1(K),K=1,J) 1724 WRITE(6,139) (WR4(K),K=1, d) 1725 WRITE(6,126) (WR5(K),K=1,J) 1726 WRITE(6,127) (WR2(K),K=1,d) 1727 WRITE(6,146) (WR3(K),K=1,d) 1728 C... OUTPUT SUBSIDY 1729 IF(NS.EQ.O)GOT0 42 1730 WRITE(6,147)(IWR2(K),K=1,d) 1731 WRITE(6,148)(WR6(K),K=1,d) 1732 42 I F ( I . LT.NHH)GOTO 11 1733 C . . . NEW DW • PROGRAM:FOS:SIM01.FORT 1734 13 CONTINUE 1735 C . 173G C . .. NO d w e l l i n g a l l o c a t e d to household 1737 C . 1738 DO 24 1=1,NHH 1739 IF(ISOL(I,1).LE.O)GOTO 15 1740 24 CONTINUE 1741 RETURN 1742 C . 1743 15 WRITE(6,136) 1744 136 FORMAT(//' * **ALLOCATION OF HOUSEHOLDS'/' NO DWELLI 1745 C . 1746 1=0 1747 17 IS=I+1 1748 d=0 1749 DO 18 I=IS,NHH 1750 IF(ISOL(I,1).GT.O)G0T0 18 1751 d = J+1 1752 C . 1753 IWR1 (d) = I 1754 WR 1(d)=HHD(I ,2) 1755 WR2(d)=S0L(I,1) 1756 IWR2(d)=-IS0L(I,1) 1757 C . 1758 IF(d.EQ.1O)G0T0 19 1759 18 CONTINUE 1760 IF(d.E0.O)G0T0 16 1761 1762 19 WRITE(6,115)(IWR1(K),K=1,d) 1763 WRITE(6,117) (WR1(K),K=1,d) 1764 WRITE(6,125)(IWR2(K),K=1,d) 1765 WRITE(6,137) (WR2(K),K=1,d) 1766 c. 1767 137 FORMAT(' HIGHEST BID',10F6.3) 1768 c. 1769 IF(I.LT.NHH)GOTO 17 1770 c. 1771 16 CONTINUE 1772 c 1773 RETURN 1774 c. 1775 ENTRY 0T$1O(SER) 1776 C . .. output "expected" and a c t u a l e x t e r n a l i t i e s . 1777 C-. 1778 WRITE(6,140) 1779 140 FORMAT('0'/' *** "ACTUAL" AND "EXPECTED" EXTERNALIT 1780 */T15, ' "ACTUAL" ' ,T30, ' "EXPECTED"'/ 1781 */' zone',2(' r e l a t i v e ') 1782 */3X, 2(4X,'wealth u n i t s ' ) / ) 1783 c 1784 WRITE(6, 141 )(I,((EXT(L,K,I),K=1,2),L=1,2),1 = 1,NZ) —J ON PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 1785 141 FORMAT(20(I4,2(F9.4,F8.0,3X)/)) 1786 WRITE(6,142) SER 1787 142 FORMAT(/' Root-Mean-Squared-Error:',F10.4) 1788 RETURN 1789 C . . . 1790 C. . . 1791 ENTRY 0T$7 1792 C . . . 1793 C... output of POLICY data s e t 1794 C . . . 1795 WRITE( 1 ,801)TITLE 1796 801 FORMAT('OOOOPOLICY ',6A4) 1797 C . . . 1798 IWR1( 1) = IFIX(10000.*(COEF+0.00009)) 1799 WRITEC1,809)IWR1(1),(PAR(I),1=1,8) 1800 809 FORMAT('2300',15/'5001',F5.3/'5002',F5.3/'5003' 1801 * /'5004',F5.3/'5005',F5.3/'6001',F5.3/'6002',F5 1802 C . . . 1803 DO 899 1=1,NHT 1804 IWR1 ( 1 ) = IFIX(HHT(I, 1)+. 1) 1805 C . . . 1806 899 WRITE( 1 ,802)1,IWR1(1),I,HHT(I,2) 1807 C . . . 1808 802 FORMAT('20' ,12,I5/'21 ' ,12, F5.4) 1809 C . . . 1810 DO 898 1=1,NHH 1811 C. . . 1812 «J=ISOL(I , 1 ) 1813 WR1 ( 1 )=SOL(I, 1) 1814 WR1(2)=S0L(I,2) 1815 WR1(3 ) =SOL(1,3) 1816 IF(J.GT.O)G0T0 893 1817 J=0 1818 WR1(1)=0.0 1819 WR1(2)=0.0 1820 WR1(3)=0.0 1821 C. . . 1822 893 IWR1(1) = IFIX(HHD(I , 1)+. 1) 1823 IWR1(2)=IFIX(HHD(I,2)+.1) 1824 C . . . 1825 IF(WR1(3).GE.1000)GOTO 889 1826 IF(WR1(2).LT.1000.)WRITE(1,803) 1827 * I,IWR1(1),IWR1(2),J.WR1(1),WR1(2),WR1 (3) 1828 IF(WR1(2).GE.1000.)WRITE(1,804) 1829 * I,IWR1 (1),IWR1(2),J,WR1(1),WR1(2),WR1(3) 1830 GOTO 898 1831 C . . . 1832 889 IF(WR1 (2).LT. 1000. )WRITE( 1,807) 1833 * I,IWR1(1),IWR1(2),J,WR1(1),WR1(2),WR1(3) 1834 IF(WR1 (2).GE. 1000. )WRITE(1,808) 1835 * I,IWR1(1),IWR1(2),U,WR1(1),WR1(2),WR1 (3) F5. 3/' CT\ PROGRAM :F'09:SIM01 .FORT 1836 803 FORMAT (.' 1',I3,3I5,F5.3,F5.1,F5.1) 1837 804 FORMAT('1',I3,3I5,F5.3,F5.0,F5.1) 1838 807 FORMAT('1',I3,3I5,F5.3,F5.1,F5.0) 1839 808 FORMAT('1',I3,3I5,F5.3,F5.0,F5.0) 1840 C 1841 898 CONTINUE 1842 C . 1843 DO 892 IZ=1,NZ 1844 IWR1( 1 ) = I F I X ( E X T ( 1 , 1 , I Z ) * 10000. ) 1845 IWR1(2)=IFIX(Z0D(2,IZ)+.1) 1846 c 1847 892 WRITE(1,805)IZ,IWR1(1),IWR1(2) 1848 805 FORMAT('40',12,215) 1849 c 1850 DO 891 u=1,NMD 1851 IWR1( 1 )=IFIX(DWD(1,d)+. 1) 1852 IWR1(2)=IFIX(DWD(2,d)+.1) 1853 c. 1854 891 WRITE( 1 ,806)J,IWR1(1),IWR1(2) 1855 806 FORMAT('3',13,215) 1856 c 1857 RETURN 1858 END 1859 c 1860 SUBROUTINE CALBRT 1861 c r o u t i n e to c a l c u l a t e and p r i n t c a l i b r a t i o n s t a t i s t i c 1862 INTEGER*2 IS0L(120,2) 1863 REAL*4 CAL(15, 12) ,ERR( 15,2),ACT(12,11),SOL(120,4) 1864 C0MM0N/BLK8/DU1(36120),I SOL,SOL 1865 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(502,6),HHT(10,4),DWD(3,50 1866 * ,PAR(40),P0L(10,4),EXT(2,2,12),ZW(11),IC1(20) 1867 EQUIVALENCE (IC 1 (1),NZ ) ,(IC1(2),NMD),(IC1(3),NHT),( 1868 * ,(IC 1 (5),NMD 1) 1869 * ,(PAR(10),PO),(PAR(11),PC),(PAR(12),QM),(PAR(13),P 1870 * , (HHD(2001),ACT(1, 1 ) ) ,(DU1( 1 ) ,CAL(1,1)),(DU1(201), 1871 C 1872 ENTRY 0T$CAL 1873 C 1874 WRITE(6,200) 1875 WRITE(6,102)((I),1=1,8) 1876 c 1877 DO 20 IZ=1,NZ 1878 20 WRITE(6,110) IZ,(ACT(K,IZ),K=1,12) 1879 1 10 FORMAT(' zone',I3,F8.2,8F5.2,F7.0,F6.2,F6.1) 1880 c 188 1 RETURN 1882 C 1883 ENTRY CL$20(IC) 1884 C 1885 NZ1=NZ+1 1886 c PROGRAM:F09:SIMO1.FORT 1887 DO 1 J=1,12 1888 DO 1 1=1,15 1889 1 CAL(I,J)=0. 1890 C . 1891 C . a g g r e g a t i n g d a t a on e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s . 1892 C . 1893 DO 2 J=1,NMD 1894 C . 1895 IZ=DWD(2,J) 1896 DO 15 1=1,NHH 1897 IF(ISOL(I,1).EO.u)GOTO 16 1898 15 CONTINUE 1899 GOTO 3 1900 C . 1901 16 IT=IFIX(HHD(I,2)) 1902 C . 1903 C . • • P-q 1904 CAL( 1,IZ)=CAL( 1,IZ)-+S0L(I,1)*S0L(I,2) 1905 CAL( 1 ,NZ1)=CAL(1,NZ1) + SOL(I, 1)*SOL(I,2) 1906 C . •• type 1907 IF(NHT.LE.8)CAL(IT+1,IZ)=CAL( IT+1 , IZ) + 1 1908 IF(NHT.LE.8)CAL(IT+1,NZ1)=CAL(IT+1,NZ1)+1 1909 C . . . i ncome 1910 CAL(10,IZ)=CAL(10,IZ)+HHD( I , 1 ) 1911 CAL(10.NZ1)=CAL(10.NZ1)+HHD( 1,1) 1912 C . . . ut i 1 i s a t i on 1913 CAL( 1 1 ,IZ)=CAL(11,IZ) + 1 1914 CAL( 1 1 ,NZ1)=CAL(11,NZ1) + 1 1915 C . . . q 1916 CAL( 12,IZ)=CAL(12,IZ) + SOL(I,2) 1917 CAL( 12.NZ1)=CAL(12,NZ1) + SOL(I,2) 1918 C . ..H h h o l d s 1919 CAL( 13,IZ)=CAL(13,IZ) + 1 1920 CAL( 13.NZ1)=CAL(13.NZ1) + 1 1921 C . . . ft e x i s t d w e l l i n g at s t a r t 1922 3 CAL( 14,IZ)=CAL(14,IZ) + 1 1923 CAL( 14.NZ1)=CAL(14.NZ1) + 1 1924 C . 1925 2 CONTINUE 1926 C . 1927 C . .. a g g r e g a t i n g by new 1928 DO 4 1=1,NHH 1929 C . 1930 IF(ISOL(I,1).NE.999)GOTO 4 1931 C . 1932 IT=IFIX(HHD(1,2)) 1933 C . • • p-q 1934 CAL( 1,NZ)=CAL( 1 ,NZ) + SOL(I, 1 )*SOL(I,2) 1935 CAL( 1 ,NZ1)=CAL(1,NZ1) + SOL(I,1)*SOL(I .2) 1936 C . •• type 1937 IF(NHT.LE.8)CAL(IT+1,NZ)=CAL(IT+1,NZ)+1 as PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 1938 IF(NHT.LE.8)CAL(IT+1,NZ1)=CAL(IT+1,NZ1)+1 1939 C . . . i ncome 1940 CAL(10,NZ)=CAL(10,NZ)+HHD(I,1) 1941 CAL(10.NZ1)=CAL(10.NZ1)+HHD(I , 1) 1942 C . ut i 1 i s a t i on 1943 CAL( 1 i,NZ)=CAL(11,NZ) + 1 1944 CAL( 11 ,NZ1)=CAL(11,NZ1)+1 1945 CAL( 14,NZ)=CAL(14,NZ) + 1 1946 CAL( 14.NZ1)=CAL(14.NZ1) + 1 1947 c. • • q 1948 CAL( 12,NZ)=CAL(12,NZ) + S0L(1,2) 1949 CAL( 12.NZ1 ) = CAL(12,NZ1)+ S0L(I,2) 1950 c. ..U hholds 1951 CAL( 13,NZ)=CAL(13,NZ) + 1 1952 CAL(13.NZ1)=CAL(13.NZ1)+1 1953 c. 1954 4 CONTINUE 1955 c. 1956 c. .. c a l c u l a t i n g zonal and t o t a l averages 1957 c. 1958 DO 5 IZ=1,NZ1 1959 c. • • P 1960 IF(CAL(12,IZ).NE.0)CAL(1,IZ)=CAL(1,IZ)/CAL(12,IZ) 1961 c. 1962 IF(CAL(13,IZ) .E0.O)G0T0 7 1963 c. 1964 c. •• type 1965 DO 6 IT=2,9 1966 6 CAL(IT,IZ)=CAL(IT,IZ)/CAL(13,IZ) 1967 c. 1968 c. . . i ncome 1969 CAL(10,IZ)=CAL(10,IZ)/CAL(13,IZ) 1970 c. • • q 1971 CAL( 12,IZ)=CAL(12,IZ)/CAL(13, IZ) 1972 c. 1973 c. . . ut i 1 i z a t i on 1974 7 IF(CAL(14,IZ).NE.0)CAL(11,IZ)=CAL(11 , IZ)/CAL( 14, IZ) 1975 c. 1976 5 CONTINUE 1977 c. 1978 c. .. c a l c u l a t i n g c a l i b r a t i o n "mean e r r o r " 1979 c. 1980 DO 9 K=1,12 1981 9 ERR(K,1)=0. 1982 c. 1983 DO 10 IZ=1,NZ 1984 DO 10 K=1,12 1985 10 ERR(K, 1 ) = ERR(K, 1 )+(CAL(K,IZ)-ACT(K,IZ))**2 1986 c. 1987 IZ = NZ 1988 IF(ACT(1,NZ).E0.O)IZ=NZ-1 PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 1989 C . 1990 DO 11 K=1,12 1991 1 1 ERR(K, 1 ) = SQRT(ERR(K,1))/(2.*IZ) 1992 C . 1993 SER1=0. 1994 C . 1995 IT = 0 1996 DO 12 K=1, 12 1997 C . 1998 ERR(K,2)=0. 1999 IF(CAL(K,NZ1).EQ.O)G0T0 12 2000 C . 2001 ERR(K,2)=ERR(K, 1 )/CAL(K,NZ1) 2002 12 CONTINUE 2003 C . 2004 IF(NHT.GT.8)G0T0 95 2005 C . 2006 C . a d j u s t i n g TYPE to average over a l l types 2007 DO 13 K = 2,9 2008 IF(ERR(K,2).EO.O)G0T0 13 2009 SER1=SER1+ERR(K,2) 2010 IT=IT+1 201 1 13 CONTINUE 2012 C . 2013 SER1=SER1/FL0AT(IT) 2014 95 SER=0. 2015 IT=0 2016 C . 2017 DO 14 K=1, 12 2018 IF(K.GE.2.AND.K.LE.9)G0T0 14 2019 IF(ERR(K,2).EQ.O)G0T0 14 2020 SER=SER+ERR(K,2) 2021 IT=IT+1 2022 14 CONTINUE 2023 C . 2024 C . 2025 SER=5ER/IT 2026 C . 2027 C . output of c a l i b r a t i o n t e s t 2028 C . 2029 WRITE(6,100)TITLE 2030 200 FORMAT(/' *** "70 " CALIBRATION DATA:') 2031 100 FORMAT('1'/' *** CALIBRATION output: ',6A4) 2032 WRITE(6,101)(PAR(I),1 = 1 ,5) 2033 WRITE(6,102) ((I),1=1,8) 2034 C . 2035 101 FORMAT(/' *** AVERAGE " a c t u a l " and " s o l u t i o n " ZONAL 2036 * ' CHARACTERISTICS'//' parameter v a l u e s 2037 *'GAMMA 1 GAMMA2 GAMMA3 BETA 1 BETA2'/18X,5F8.4) 2038 102 F0RMAT(/T2O,'******** household type ********' 2039 * /T12,'price',13,715,T57,'income usage "0"'/ PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 2040 C . 204 1 WRITE(6,103)(IZ,(ACT(K,IZ),K=1,12),(CAL(K,IZ),K = 1,1 2042 C . 2043 103 FORMAT(' (zone',13, ' ) '/' actua1 ',F6.2,8F5.2,F8 .0, F 2044 * /' c a l c . ' ,F6.2,8F5.2, F8 .0 2045 C . 2046 WRITE(6,104) 2047 104 FORMAT(/' *** CALIBRATION ERRORS') 2048 C . 2049 WRITE(6,102) ((I),1=1,8) 2050 WRITE(6,105)((ERR(K,L),K=1,12),L=1,2),SER,SER1 2051 C . 2052 105 FORMAT(' R.M.S.E. ',F5.4,8F5.2,F8.1,F6.3,F6.1 2053 * //' R.M.S.E. ' ,F5.4,8F5.2,F7.4,F6.3,F6.3 2054 * /' (weighted)',T18,15('-'),' averaged ', 14(' 2055 * //10X,'MEAN ERRORS',2F10.4) 2056 C . 2057 RETURN 2058 END 2059 C . 2060 C . 2061 FUNCTION SUB(IP,IS,L,AY,P,0,ND) 2062 C0MM0N/BLK21/DUM(3058),DWD(3,502),Z0D(3,11).PAR(40) 2063 C . 2064 EQUIVALENCE (PAR(6) ,PO) ,(PAR(7),PC) 2065 ' C . 2066 GOTO(1,2,3,4,4) ,IP 2067 C . 2068 SUB=0.0 2069 RETURN 2070 C . i ncome 207 1 1 SUB=(POL(1,L)*(P0L(3,L)-P0L(4,L)*AY)) 2072 RETURN 2073 C . 2074 2 G0T0(21,22,23,24, 25,26) , IS 2075 C . 2076 SUB=P*Q 2077 RETURN 2078 C . 2079 21 SUB=(P0L(1,L)*(P0L(2,L)*P*Q-POL(4 , L)*AY)) 2080 RETURN 2081 C . 2082 22 SUB=(POL(1,L)*(P0L(3,L)-P0L(4 , L)*AY) ) 2083 RETURN 2084 C . 2085 23 SUB=(POL(1,L)*(P0L(2,L)-P0L(5,L))*P*Q) 2086 RETURN 2087 C . 2088 24 SUB=(POL(1,L)*(P0L(3,L)-P0L(5,L)*P*Q)) 2089 RETURN 2090 C . PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 2091 25 SUB=(POL(1,L)*(P0L(2,L)*P*Q-P0L(5,L)*AY*P*Q)) 2092 RETURN 2093 C . 2094 26 SUB=(POL(1,L)*(P0L(3,L)-P0L(5,L)*AY*P*0)) 2095 RETURN 2096 C . pr i ce 2097 3 IF(ND.GT.500)SUB=0* (PO-POL(1,L)+PC-P0L(2,L)) 2098 IF(ND.LE.500)SUB=0* (PO-POL(3.L)+PC-POL(4,L)) 2099 RETURN 2100 C . 2101 C . d i r e c t demand and s u p p l y 2102 4 G0T0(41,42),IS 2103 C . 2104 41 SUB=P0L(1,L)*(P0L(2,L)*P*Q-P0L(4,L)*AY) 2105 RETURN 2106 C . 2107 42 SUB=POL(1,L)*(P0L(3,L)-P0L(4,L)*AY) 2108 RETURN 2109 C . 21 10 END 2111 C . 2112 SUBROUTINE POLICY 2113 C . ROUTINE CALCULATES THE SUBSIDY PROF ILE,AMOUNTS AND I 2114 INTEGER*4 IWR1(10) 2115 REAL*4 MEANS,MEDNS,DIFF(10,5),DIFF1(7),MER(5) 2116 * , SUBP(2,4,13),YT(13),WR1(10),WR2(10),MY 2117 * ,SKEY(120),SOL(120,4) 2118 INTEGER*2 SAHH(120),UAHH(120),ISOL(120,2) 21 19 C0MM0N/BLK8/DU1(36000),SAHH,UAHH,I SOL,SOL 2120 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(502,6),HHT(10,4),DWD(3,50 2121 * ,PAR(40),POL(10,4),EXT(2,2, 12) , ZW(11),IC1(20),IPOL 2122 EQUIVALENCE (IC1(1),NZ),(IC1(2),NMD),(IC1(3),NHT),( 2123 * ,(IC1(5),NMD1),(IC1(7),IP1 ) ,(IC1(10),NS) 2124 * , (PAR(6),PO),(PAR(7),PC),(PAR(8),QM) 2125 * ,(PAR(9),PN),(PAR(37),PPP) 2126 * ,(IC1(10),NS) 2127 * ,(DIFF1(1),PART),(DIFF1(2).MEANS),(DIFF1(4),MEDNS) 2128 * , (DIFF1(5),BNEW),(DIFF1(6),SNEW) 2129 C . 2130 EQUIVALENCE (DU1(1),SUBP( 1,1,1 ) ,SKEY( 1),DIFF(1,1)) 2131 * ,(DU1(51),DIFF1(1)),(DU1(61),MER(1)) 2132 * ,(DU1(101),WR1(1)),(DU1(111),WR2(1)),(DU1(121),IWR 2133 C . 2134 DATA YT/50.,100.,150.,200.,250.,300.,350.,400.,450. 2135 * 2000.,3000./ 2136 C . 2137 ENTRY CL$SB1(KJ) 2138 C . 2139 IF(IP1 .EQ. 1O.AND.KJ.EQ.2)G0T0 999 2140 C . 2141 C . c a l c u l a t i n g s u b s i d y by h'hold PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 2 142 C . 2143 K=IPOL(1,1) 2144 DO 10 1=1,NHH 2 145 SOL(I,4)=0. 2146 C . 2147 IF(K.GE.20)GOTO 7 2148 C . 2149 L=IS0L(I,2)/10 2150 J=IS0L(I,1) 2151 IF(J.LE.O.0R.L.E0.O)G0T0 10 2152 C . 2153 IP=IS0L(I,2)-10*L 2154 IS=IP0L(2,L) 2155 AY=HHD(I,1)/12. 2156 KT = I FIX(ABS(HHD(I,2))) 2157 IF(HHD(I, 1).GT.HHT(KT, 1 ) )AY = AY*(1.-PPP) 2158 C . 2159 SOL( I ,4) = SUB(IP,IS,L,AY,S0L(I, 1 ) ,S0L(I,2) 2160 C . 2161 GOTO 10 2162 C . 2163 7 S0L( I ,4) = I S 0 L ( I , 2 ) / 1 0 . 2164 IF(SOL(I,4).GT.0.001)IS0L(I,2)=20+IP0L(2 , 2165 C . 2166 10 CONTINUE 2167 C . 2168 IF(Kd.EQ. DRETURN 2169 C . . . SORTING HOUSEHOLDS BY SUBSIDY AMOUNT 2170 999 DO 1 1=1,NHH 2171 1 SKEY(I)=SOL(I,4) 2172 C . 2173 DO 3 K=1,NHH 2174 IS=0 2175 X = -9 . E10 2176 C . 2177 DO 2 N=1,NHH 2178 IF(SKEY(N).LE.X)GOTO 2 2179 X=SKEY(N) 2180 IS = N 2181 2 CONTINUE 2182 C . 2183 SKEY(IS)=-9.E10 2184 3 SAHH(K)=IS 2185 C . 2186 C . 2187 DO 20 1=1,10 2188 DO 20 d=1,5 2189 20 DIFF(I,d)=0. 2190 C . 2191 DO 21 1=1,7 2192 21 DIFF 1 (I)=0. PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 2193 C . 2194 DO 22 1=1,5 2195 22 MER(I)=0.0 2196 C . 2197 C . .. c a l c u l a t i n g DIFF1 v a l u e s 2198 DO 30 1=1,NHH 2199 IF(SOL(I,4).GT.0.0)PART=PART+1 2200 MEANS=MEANS+SOL(I,4) 2201 C . 2202 IF(HHD(I,4).EQ.999.)BNEW=BNEW+1. 2203 IF(ISOL(I,1).E0.999) SNEW=SNEW+1 2204 C . 2205 30 CONTINUE 2206 C . 2207 IF(PART.EQ.O.OR.BNEW.EQ.O.O)RETURN 2208 C . 2209 DO 23 d=1,5 2210 23 DIFF(5,d)=1E10 221 1 C . 2212 MEANS=MEANS/PART 2213 DIFF1(3)=PART*100./FLOAT(NHH) 2214 C . 2215 I=IFIX(PART+2.1j/2. 2216 u=IFIX(PART+1.1)/2. 2217 C . 2218 I1=SAHH(I) 2219 J1=SAHH(J) 2220 MEDNS = (SOL(I 1,4)+S0L(d1,4))/2. 2221 C . 2222 IF(BNEW.NE.0.0)DIFF1(7)=(SNEW-BNEW)*100./BNEW 2223 C . 2224 C . .. c a l c u l a t i n g DIFF v a l u e s 2225 C . .. numbers 2226 DIFF(1,1)=F LOAT(NHH) 2227 DIFF( 1 ,2)=PART 2228 DO 31 1=3,5 2229 31 DIFF( 1 ,I) = 10. 2230 C . 2231 DO 32 1=3,4 2232 IF(PART.LT.20.)DIFF(1,I)=FLOAT(IFIX(PART/2.)) 2233 32 IF(DIFF(1,I).E0.O.)DIFF(1,I)=1. 2234 C . 2235 UNSUB = DIFF(1, 1 )-DIFF(1,2) 2236 C . 2237 IF(UNSUB.LT.10)DIFF(1,5)=UNSUB 2238 C . 2239 DO 40 L=1,5 2240 C . 2241 TPB=0. 2242 TOB=0. 2243 TEB=0. PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 2244 TS=0.0 2245 TI =0. 2246 IF=0 2247 C . . . 2248 I 1 = IFIX(DIFF(1,L)+.01) 2249 I F( I 1 . EQ.0)GOTO 40 2250 C . . . 2251 DO 33 K=1,I 1 2252 C . . . 2253 G0T0(5O,52,53,54,53),L 2254 C . . . 2255 50 I=K 2256 GOTO 51 2257 C . . . 2258 C... a l l p a r t i c i p a n t s 2259 52 IS=IF+1 2260 DO 62 IF=IS,NHH 2261 I=1F 2262 IF(SOL(I,4).NE.O.O)G0 TO 51 2263 62 CONTINUE 2264 GO TO 51 2265 C . . . 2266 C... h i g h income 2267 54 IS=IF+1 2268 DO 63 IF=IS,NHH 2269 I=UAHH(IF) 2270 IF(SOL(I,4).NE.0.0)GOTO 51 2271 63 CONTINUE 2272 GOTO 51 2273 C . . . 2274 C... low income - both 2275 53 IS=IF+1 2276 DO 64 IF=IS,NHH 2277 IK=NHH+1-IF 2278 I=UAHH(IK) 2279 IF(L.E0.3.AND.S0L(I,4).NE.O.0)G0T0 51 2280 I F ( L . EQ.5.AND.SOL(I,4).EQ.0.0)GOTO 51 2281 64 CONTINUE 2282 C . . . 2283 C... f i n d d w e l l i n g 2284 51 I F ( I S O L ( I , 1 ) .LE.0)GOTO 34 2285 C . . . 2286 38 DIFF(2,L)=DIFF(2,L) + S0L(I , 1 ) 2287 DIFF(3,L)=DIFF(3,L)+SOL(I,2) 2288 DIFF(4,L)=DIFF(4,L) + SOL(I,1)*SOL( I ,2) 2289 C . . . 2290 34 TPB=TPB+HHD(1,5) .2291 TQB=TQB+HHD(1,6) 2292 TEB=TEB+HHD(1,5)*HHD(1,6) 2293 TS=TS+SOL(I,4) 2294 C . . . PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 2295 AY = HHD(I, 1)/ 12. 2296 UAY = AY 2297 KT = IFIX(ABS(HHD(I , 2 ) ) ) 2298 IF(HHD(I, 1 ) .GT.HHT(KT, 1 ) )AY = AY*(1 .-PPP) 2299 C . 2300 IF(AY . LT.DIFF(5,L))DIFF(5,L)=AY 2301 IF(AY.GT.DIFF(6,L))DIFF(6,L)=AY 2302 C . 2303 TI=TI+UAY 2304 DIFF(7,L)=DIFF(7,L)+AY+S0L(I,4) 2305 C . 2306 DO 950 N=1,NS 2307 IF(AY.GT.AILIM(N))G0T0 950 2308 DIF F( 10,L)=DIFF(10,L) + 1. 2309 GOTO 33 2310 950 CONTINUE 231 1 C . 2312 33 CONTINUE 2313 C . 2314 C . p a r t i c i pat i on 2315 IF(L.EO.1.AND.DIFF(10,1).NE.0.)DIFF(10,1)=I PART*100. 2316 C . 2317 IF(MEANS*PART.NE.0.)DIFF(9,L)=(DIFF(7,L)-TI)*100./( 2318 C . 2319 IF(DIFF(7,L)-TI.NE.O.O) 2320 * DIFF(8,L)=(DIFF(4,L)-TEB)*100./(DIFF(7 ,L) -TI) 2321 C . .. '/.increase p u r c h a s i n g power 2322 IF(TI.NE.0.)DIFF(7,L)=(DIFF(7,L)-TI)*100./TI 2323 C. .. changes 2324 IF(TPB.NE.0.)DIFF(2,L ) = (DIFF(2,L)-TPB)* 100 ./TPB 2325 IF(TQB.NE.0. )DIFF(3,L ) = (DIFF(3,L)-TQB)* 100 ./TQB 2326 IF(TEB.NE.0.)DIFF(4,L)=(DIFF(4,L)-TEB)* 100 ./TEB 2327 C . 2328 C . market e f f i c i e n c y r a t i o 2329 IF(DIFF(1,L).NE.0.)TS=TS/DIFF(1,L) 2330 IF(TS.NE.0.0)MER(L)=DIFF(3,L)/TS 2331 C . 2332 40 CONTINUE 2333 RETURN 2334 C . 2335 ENTRY OT$SB 2336 C . 2337 10=1 2338 WRITE(6,99)TITLE 2339 99 FORMA T ( ' 1 * * * SUBSIDY AMOUNT: ',6A4/) 2340 CALL 0T$ST(NS) 2341 C . 2342 IF(PART.EO.0.0)GOTO 71 2343 C . 2344 WRITE(6,904) 2345 C . PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 2346 GOTO 199 2347 C . . . 2348 ENTRY OT$BS 2349 C . . . 2350 10=2 2351 WRITE(6,110)TITLE 2352 110 FORMAT('1 * * * BASE AMOUNT: ' ,6A4 2353 * //T5,'HHOLD',T16,'INCOME',T36,'DWELLING' 2354 * /' ft TYPE ACTUAL MODEL # PRICE QUANTITY 2355 C . . . 2356 199 DO 940 1=1,5 2357 940 WR2(I)=0. 2358 C . . . 2359 DO 915 IS=1,NHH 2360 C . . . 2361 I=UAHH(IS) 2362 AY=HHD(I, 1 )/12 . 2363 - MY=HHD(I,3) 2364 KT=IFIX(ABS(HHD(I,2))) 2365 C . . . 2366 IF(HHD(1 , 1 ) .GT.HHT(KT, 1 ) )MY =MY*(1 .-PPP) 2367 IF(HHD(I, 1).GT.HHT(KT, 1 ) )AY=AY*(1.-PPP) 2368 IF(IS0L(I,1).LE.O)G0T0 910 2369 d=IS0L(l,1) 2370 C . . . 2371 WR 1 ( 1 ) =S0L(1,1) 2372 WR1(2 ) =S0L(1,2) 2373 WR1(3)=WR1(1)*WR1(2) 2374 IWR 1 ( 1 ) = I SOL(1,2) 2375 WR1(4 ) = SOL(1,4) 2376 GOTO 930 2377 C... NO DWELLING 2378 910 DO 91 1 K=1,4 2379 IWR1(K)=0 2380 911 WR1(K)=0. 2381 0=0 2382 GOTO 930 2383 C . . . 2384 930 DO 931 K=1,4 2385 931 WR2(K)=WR2(K)+WR1(K) 2386 WR2(5)=WR2(5)+AY 2387 C . . . 2388 IF(10 . EQ. 1)WRITE(6,905)I,HHD(I,2),AY,MY,J,(WR1(K),K 2389 * ,WR1(4) 2390 IF( 10. EQ.2)WRITE(6,905)1,HHD(I,2).AY,MY,d,(WR1(K),K 2391 C . . . 2j 2392 IF(IS.NE.50.AND.IS.NE.100.AND.IS.NE.15O)G0T0 915 £j 2393 IF(IS.EQ.NHH)GOTO 915 2394 C . . . 2395 G0T0(8,9),I0 2396 8 WRITE(6,99)TITLE PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 2397 CALL OT$ST(NS) 2398 WRITE(6,904) 2399 GOTO 915 2400 C . . . 2401 9 WRITE(6,110)TITLE 2402 C . . . 2403 915 CONTINUE 2404 C . . . 2405 IF(10.EQ.1)WRITE(6,906)WR2(5),(WR2(K), K = 2,4) 2406 IF(10 . EQ.2)WRITE(6,906)WR2(5),(WR2(K) ,K = 2,3) 2407 C . . . 2408 904 F0RMAT(/T5, 'HHOLD' ,T16, 'INCOME' ,T36, 'DWELLING' ,T59, 2409 *' ft TYPE ACTUAL MODEL H PRICE QUANTITY 2410 * 'AMOUNT') 241 1 905 F0RMAT(I4,F4.0,2F9.0,14,F8.3,F8.1,F8. 1 , 14, F8.1) 2412 906 F0RMAT(T2,66('-')/T9,F9.0.T39,2F8. 1,T59,F8 . 1) 2413 C . . . 2414 IF(I0.EQ.2)RETURN 2415 C .. . 2416 WRITE(6,101)TITLE 2417 CALL OTSST(NS) 2418 101 FORMAT('1 * * * SUBSIDY IMPACT: ',6A4/) 2419 IF(BNEW.EQ.O.O)RETURN 2420 C . . . 2421 WRITE(6,102)DIFF1 2422 102 FORMAT(/' P a r t i c i p a n t s : ' , T 3 0 , F 5 . 0 , T 4 0 , ' S u b s i d y : 2423 • * F8.1/T18,': percent',T30,F5.2,'%',T47,': Median',T 2424 *//' New C o n s t r u c t i o n : Base',T30,F5.0/T18,': S u b s i d i 2425 */T18,': % change',T30,F5.2,'%') 2426 C . . . 2427 WRITE(6,103)((DIFF(I,J),J=1,5),I=1,7),(MER(I),I=1,4 2428 WRITE(6, 1 0 4 ) ( ( D I F F ( I , J ) , J = 2,4),1=8,9),DIFF(10, 1) 2429 C . . . 2430 103 F0RMAT(/T22, 'CM. A. ' ,T42, 'RECIPIENTS' ,T62, 'N0N-' 2431 * / T 3 5 , ' a l l low "Y" hi g h "Y" RECIPIENTS' 2432 *//' Number',T17,5F10.0, //' Changes'/' P r i c e s ' , T 1 2433 * /' q u a n t i t y ' , T 1 9 , 5 ( F 9 . 2 , ' % ' ) / ' expenditure',T1 2434 *//' Incomes'/' Lowest',T19,5F10.0 /' H i g h e s t ' , 2435 *//' Changes i n ' / ' P u r c h a s i n g Power',T19,5(FS.2,'%') 2436 *//' E f f i c i e n c y Ratio',T19,4F10.3) 2437 C . . . 2438 104 FORMATC/' Earmarking Ra 11 o' , T28 , 3F 10 . 2//' '/.Subsidy 2439 * ,3(F 9 . 2 , ' % ' ) / / ' p a r t i c i p a t i o n ' / 8 X , ' r a t e ' , T 1 8 , F 1 0 . 2 2440 * ' note: NON-RECIPIENTS are 1owest-income group'/ 2441 C... 2442 RETURN 2443 C... -g 2444 C. . . no p a r t i c i p a n t s 2445 71 WRITE(6,105) 2446 105 FORMATC/' NO PARTICIPANTS') 2447 RETURN PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 2448 C 2449 END 2450 C 2451 SUBROUTINE OT$ST(NS) 2452 COMMON /BLK21/DUK4637),POL(10,4),DU2(79),IPOL(2,4) 2453 REAL*8 T0P(3)/'*AY) ','*P*Q) ' , '*P*Q*AY ) '/ 2454 * ,C0N(3,6) /'income ',' ',' ' 2455 * , ' i n k i n d ','demand ',' ' 2456 * , ' d i r e c t c ' , ' o n s t r a i n ' , ' e d ' 2457 * , ' d i r e c t q ' . ' u a n t i t y ',' ' • 2458 * , ' d i r e c t e ' , ' x p e n d i t u ' , ' r e ' 2459 *' , ' d i r e c t p ' . ' r i c e ',' '/ 2460 C 2461 DO 800 L=1,NS 2462 IF( IPOL( 1,L).GE.7.AND.I POL(1,L).LE.9)G0T0 810 2463 IS=IP0L(2,L) 2464 IF(IPOL(1,L).GE.20)GOTO 820 2465 C 2466 GOTO( 1,2,3,4,5,6),IS 2467 C 2468 1 WRITE(6,101)POL(1,L),POL(2,L),POL(4,L),TOP(1),AILIM 2469 GOTO 800 2470 2 WRITE(6, 1O2)P0L(1,L),POL(3,L),POL(4,L),TOP( 1 ),AILIM 247 1 GOTO 800 2472 3 WRITE(6,101)POL(1,L),POL(2,L),POL(5,L),TOP(2),AILIM 2473 GOTO 800 2474 4 WRITE(6, 102)POL(1,L),POL(3,L),POL(5,L),TOP( 2) , AILIM 2475 GOTO 800 2476 5 WRITE(6, 101)POL(1,L),POL(2,L),POL(5,L),TOP(3 ) ,AI LIM 2477 GOTO 800 2478 6 WRITE(6,1O2)P0L(1,L),P0L(3,L),P0L(5,L),T0P(3),AILIM 2479 GOTO 800 2480 C 2481 810 WRITE(6,11O)(P0L(I,L),I=1,4),AILIM(L),P0L(7,L) 2482 GOTO 800 2483 C c o n s t r a i n e d MINIMUM o p t i o n 2484 8 20 WRITE(6,120)(CON(I,IS),1=1,3),POL(1,L) 2485 C 2486 800 IF(P0L(10,L).LT.5000. )WRITE(6, 1 1 1 ) POL(10,L) 2487 RETURN 2488 C 2489 101 FORMATC SUB=' ,F6 . 4, '*( ' ,F8.2, '*P*Q-' .FS.4.A8, ' :Y 2490 * .'/MONTH :MINO=',F5.0) 2491 102 FORMATC SUB=' ,F6 .4, ' *( ' , F8.2,4X, '-' ,F6.4,A8, ' :Y 2492 * .'/MONTH :MINQ=',F5.0) 2493 1 10 FORMATC SUB = PRICE :PON=' ,F4 . 2, 'PCN=' ,F4 . 2, 'POE=' ,F 2494 * ,'PCE=',F4.2 ,' :Y LIMIT=',F6.0,'/MONTH :MIN0=',F5 2495 1 1 1 F0RMAT(T64,':MAXR=',F5.0) 2496 120 FORMATC SUB= c o n s t r a i n e d : ',3A8,'MINQ= ',F7.2) 2497 C 2498 END PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 2499 C . 2500 SUBROUTINE AL$GRP(NWIDE) 2501 LOGICAL*1 HEAD(16,2),SHEAD 1(16),SHEAD2(16) 2502 INTEGER*2 NCHAR(13),I SOL(120,2) 2503 INTEGERS HMAX 2504 REALM S0L( 120,4) ,DATAS( 121 , 13) 2505 REAL*8 GTITLE(10),STITLE(10),RHEAD1(2),RHEAD2(2),BL 2506 * ,TITLE(3) 2507 C . 2508 COMMON/BLK1/A 2509 C0MM0N/BLK8/DU1(36120),I SOL,SOL 2510 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE,HHD(502,6),HHT(10,4),DWD(3,502), 251 1 * ,PAR(40),P0L(10,4),EXT(2,2, 12 ) ,ZW(11),IC1(20) 2512 EOUIVALENCE (IC 1 ( 1 ),NZ),(IC1(2),NMD),(IC1(3 ) ,NHT ) , ( 2513 * ,(IC1(5),NMD 1) 2514 * ,(PAR(6),P0) ,(PAR(7) ,PC) ,(PAR(8),0M),(PAR(9),PN) 2515 C . 2516 EQUIVALENCE (DU1(1),GTITLE(1)),(DU1(21),BASE),(DU1( 2517 * ,(DU1 (23),NTYPE),(DU1(24),HEAD(1, 1) ) ,(DU 1 (32 ) ,DATA 2518 EQUIVALENCE (RHEAD1(1),SHEAD1(1)),(RHEAD2(1),SHEAD2 2519 C . 2520 DATA NCHAR/'1 ','2 ','3 ','4 ','5 ','6 ','7 ','8 ', 2521 * ,'N '/ 2522 * ,STITLE/' PRICE-Q','UANTITY '.'CURVES ',7*' 2523 * ,RHEAD1/' ',' p r i c e '/ 2524 * ,RHEAD2/' "Q" of ','housing '/ 2525 * .BLANK/' '/ 2526 C . 2527 HMAX=480 2528 K = IF IX(QM*FLOAT(NWIDE)/FLOAT(HMAX)) 2529 C . 2530 DO 4 J=1, 13 2531 DO 4 1=1,120 2532 4 DATAS(I,d)=-1. 2533 C . 2534 C . .. l o a d PN and PO 2535 DO 1 I =K,NWIDE 2536 DATAS(I, 12)=PN 2537 1 DATAS(I,13)=P0 2538 C . 2539 IF(ISUPLY.NE.1)GOTO 11 2540 C . 2541 C . i n t e r c e p t of s u p p l y f u n c t i o n an "PO" 2542 C . 2543 DO 10 u=1,NMD 2544 K=(BETA 1*DWD(1,U))*FLOAT(NWIDE)/FLOAT(HMAX) 2545 11=J-((J-1)/10)*10 2546 IF(K . LT.1)K=1 2547 IF(K.GT.NWIDE)K=NWIDE 2548 DATAS(K,11)=P0 2549 10 DATAS(K,13)=-1. PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 2550 C . 2551 1 1 DO 2 1=1,NHH 2552 IF(IS0L(I,1).LE.O)G0T0 2 2553 K=IFIX(S0L(I,2)*FLOAT(NWIDE)/FLOAT(HMAX)) 2554 IF(K.LT.1)G0T0 2 2555 IF(K.GT.NWIDE)K=NWIDE 2556 C . 2557 J=I SOL(I, 1) 2558 IF(d.NE.999)G0T0 3 2559 C . 2560 DATAS(K, 12) = - 1 . 2561 DATAS(K, 1 1 ) = S0 L ( I , 1) 2562 GOTO 2 2563 C . 2564 3 I 1=J-((J-1)/10)*10 2565 DATAS(K,I 1) = SOL(I, 1) 2566 2 CONTINUE 2567 C . 2568 NTYPE=1 2569 NT=120 2570 N0=13 2571 NHIGH=50 2572 BASE=0. 2573 C . 2574 DO 5 1=1,16 2575 HEAD(I,1)=SHEAD1(I) 2576 5 HEAD(I ,2)=SHEAD2(I) 2577 C . 2578 GTITLE(1)=BLANK 2579 DO 6 1=2, 10 2580 6 GTITLE(I) = STITLE(1-1 ) 2581 DO 8 1=5,7 2582 8 GTITLE(I)=TITLE(I-4) 2583 C . 2584 C . 2585 DO 7 1=1,9 2586 7 A(I)=BLANK 2587 C . 2588 CALL OUT$GP(NT,NO,NHIGH,NWIDE,6,NCHAR) 2589 C . 2590 RETURN 2591 END 2592 C . 2593 SUBROUTINE OUT$GP(NT,NO,NHIGH,NWIDE,P,NCHAR) 2594 INTEGER*4 HCORD(24),NOLD(2),HMAX 2595 INTEGER*2 NCHAR(NO),GRAP1(52,120) 2596 L0GICAL*1 HEAD(16,2),H0LD(8) 2597 REAL*8 GTITLE(10),VC0RD(51),C0RD8,BLANK 2598 INTEGER*2 A,B,HST 2599 REAL*8 TITLE(9) 2600 C0MM0N/BLK1/TITLE PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 2G01 C0MM0N/BLK8/GTITLE.BASE,HMAX,NTYPE,HEAD,DATAS( 2602 C 2603 EQUIVALENCE (HOLD( 1 ),C0RD8),(NOLD(1),C0RD8) 2604 INTEGER P 2605 DATA A/'-'/,B/' ' /,HST/ ' * ' / 2606 * , C0RD8/' '/.BLANK/' '/ 2607 C 2608 ML = 0 2609 MULT=0 2610 1000 F0RMAT(4I10) ' 261 1 C 2612 NF =NHIGH+1 2613 DO 1 d=1,NWIDE 2614 DO 1 1=1,NF 2615 1 G R A P 1 ( I , J ) = B 26 16 C 2617 C "FIND MAX AND MIN VALUE" 2618 CMIN =1000000000.0 2619 CMAX=-CMIN 2620 DO 2 J=1,N0 2621 DO 2 d1=1,NT 2622 IF(DATAS(d1 ,d) . EQ.- 1 . )GOTO 2 2623 IF(DATAS(d1,d).GT.CMAX)CMAX=DATAS(d1,d) 2624 IF(DATAS(d1,J).LT.CMIN)CMIN=DATAS(d1,d) 2625 2 CONTINUE 2626 IF(CMAX.LT.0)CMAX=0. 2627 IF(NTYPE.EQ.1)CMIN=BASE 2628 BASEV=CMIN 2629 IF(CMIN.EQ.CMAX)GOTO 89 2630 C 263 1 C 2632 BASEV=(FLOAT(IFIX(CMIN/1000. )) )*1000. 2633 IF(CMIN.LT.0)BASEV=BASEV-1000. 2634 C 2635 C II CALCULATE SPREAD" 2636 80 IF(NTYPE.GT.1)G0 TO 94 2637 C 2638 SPREAD=CMAX-BASEV 2639 SPRATE=SPREAD/FLOAT(NF) 2640 IF(SPRATE.LT.1.)GOTO 92 2641 DO 91 N=1,20 2642 SPRATE=SPRATE/10. 2643 IF(SPRATE.LT.1.)G0T0 93 2644 91 CONTINUE 2645 C 89 CALL 0UT$C1(4) 2646 89 RETURN 2647 93 MULT=N 2648 GO TO 94 2649 92 MULT=0 2650 IF(SPRATE.GT.0.O1)G0 TO 94 2651 DO 95 N=1,20 PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 0 2652 SPRATE=SPRATE*10. 2653 IF(SPRATE.GT.0.01)G0 TO 96 2654 95 CONTINUE 2655 GOTO 89 2656 96 MULT=-N 2657 C 2658 C . .."GENERATE VERTICAL AXIS COORDINATES FREO" 2659 94 XIM=10. 2660 DO 202 1=1,4 2661 X=SPRATE*(1+3) 2662 C 2663 DO 203 K=1,15 2664 IF(X.LE.O.O)GOTO 204 2665 203 X=X-0.5 2666 C 2667 204 K = K- 1 2668 C 2669 C 2670 XI=(FL0AT(K)*O.5)-FLOAT(I+3)*SPRATE 2671 IF(XI .GE.XIM)GOTO 202 2672 XIM=XI 2673 IFRE0=I+3 2674 XS=(FL0AT(K)*0.5)/FL0AT(IFREO) 2675 202 CONTINUE 2676 C 2677 SPRATE=XS 2678 C 2679 SPACE=(10.**MULT*SPRATE) 2680 C . 11 INSERTION POINT FOR FLOATING AXIS" 2681 IF(SPREAD.LE.CMAX)INPT=NHIGH+1 2682 IF(SPREAD.GT.CMAX)INPT=IFIX(NF-(ABS(BASEV)/SPACE)) 2683 IF(CMAX.LE.0)INPT=1 2684 C 2685 97 NOV=NT 2686 IFREQH=NWIDE/NT 2687 IF(IFREQH.GT.4)IFREQH=4 2688 IF(IFRE0H.NE.O)G0TO 230 2689 NOV=NWIDE 2690 IFRE0H=1 2691 C 2692 C . . . " CONVERT INPUT DATA TO OUTPUT MATRIX" 2693 230 DO 3 d=1,N0 2694 DO 3 d1=1,NOV 2695 IF(DATAS(d1,d).EO.-1.)GOTO 3 2696 N=IFIX(NF-((DATAS(d1,d)-BASEV)/SPACE)) 2697 IF(N.LT.1)N=1 2698 IF(N.GT.NHIGH+1)N=NHIGH+1 2699 dW=(IFREQH*(d1-1))+1 2700 IF(,GRAP1(N,dW) .EQ.B)GOTO 4 2701 GRAP1(N,dW)=HST 2702 GO TO 3 PR0GRAM:FO9:5IMO1.FORT 2703 4 GRAP1(N,JW)=NCHAR(d) 2704 GO TO 3 2705 3 CONTINUE 2706 3C I CONTINUE 2707 C . .."INSERTING HORIZONTAL AXIS" 2708 DO 201 d=1,NWIDE 2709 201 IF(GRAP1(INPT,d).E0.B)GRAP1(INPT,d)=A 2710 10 DO 218 d=1,NWIDE 27 1 1 218 GRAP1 (NF+1,d)=A 2712 C 2713 C . .."VERTICAL COORDINATES" 2714 DO 217 d= 1 ,NF 2715 217 VCORD(d)=BLANK 2716 C . 2717 NS=INPT-(INPT/IFREO)*IFREO 2718 SVALUE=BASEV+FLOAT(NF-NS)*SPACE 2719 ADd=0.00001*10.**MULT 2720 IF(ABS(CMIN).LT.100)MULT=MULT-2 2721 IF(MULT.GT.O)MULT=0 2722 C . 2723 IF( INPT.NE.NF)SVALUE = SVALUE-(BASEV+FLOAT(NF-INPT)*S 2724 C . 2725 DO 211 d=NS,NF,IFREO 2726 IF(SVALUE.GT.0)NVALUE = IFIX((SVALUE+ADd)/10.* *MULT) 2727 IF(SVALUE.LE.0)NVALUE=IFIX((SVALUE-ADd)/10.**MULT) 2728 CALL BTD(NVALUE,HOLD(1),8,I,' ') 2729 VC0RD(d)=C0RD8 2730 C . 2731 211 SVALUE=SVALUE-FLOAT(IFREQ)*SPACE 2732 C . 2733 C . .."HORIZONTAL COORDINATES" 2734 NC0RDS=N0V/5 2735 GOTO(11,12),NTYPE 2736 C 2737 11 DO 212 d=1,NC0RDS 2738 212 HC0RD(d)=d*5*HMAX/NWIDE 2739 GOTO 7 2740 12 CONTINUE 2741 C 2742 7 CONTINUE 2743 C 2744 C . .."HEADING FOR GRAPH" 2745 WRITE(P,99)TITLE 2746 99 FORMAT('1',9A8/) 2747 C 2748 C . . . "GRAPHICAL OUTPUT" 2749 DO 31 d=1,NF 2750 IF(d.LE.16)WRITE(P,101)HEAD(d, 1 ) ,VCORD(d), 2751 *(GRAP1(d,MC),MC=1,NWIDE) 2752 IF(d.GT.16)WRITE(P,102)VCORD(d),(GRAP1(d,MC),MC=1,N 2753 31 CONTINUE PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 2754 C 2755 101 FORMAT(T2,A 1,A8.T1 1 , ' | ' , 120A1) 2756 102 FORMAT(T3,A8.T11,'|',120A1) 2757 103 FORMAT(1H+.T12,120A1) 2758 104 FORMAT(T12,120A1) 2759 C 2760 C . . . " BOTTOM AXIS" 2761 IF(INPT.NE.NF)WRITE(P,104)(GRAP1(NF+1,MC),MC=1,NWID 2762 C 2763 C . . " CO-ORDINATES" 2764 IF(IFREQH.EO.1)WRITE(P,111)(HCORD(d),d=1.NCORDS) 2765 IF(IFREQH.EQ.2)WRITE(P,112)(HCORD(d),d=1,NCORDS) 2766 IF(IFREOH.EO.3)WRITE(P,113)(HCORD(d),d=1.NCORDS) 2767 IF(IFREQH.EQ.4)WRITE(P,114)(HCORD(d),d=1.NCORDS) 2768 C 2769 1 1 1 F0RMAT(T12.24I5) 2770 1 12 FORMAT(T11,12110) 2771 1 13 F0RMAT(T12,8I15) 2772 1 14 FORMAT(T11,6120) 2773 C 2774 NC=N0*2 2775 IF(NC.GT.10)NC=10 2776 C 2777 C . .."TITLES" 2778 I F(NWIDE.LE.30)WRITE(P,105)(HEAD(d,2),d=1, 16),(GTIT 2779 105 F0RMAT(T18,16A1//T17,4A8/T2,6A8) 2780 IF(NWIDE.EQ.60)WRITE(P,106)(HEAD(d,2),d=1,16),(GTIT 278 1 106 F0RMAT(T54,16A1//T3,10A8) 2782 IF(NWIDE.GT.60)WRITE(P,107)(HEAD(d,2),d=1,16),(GTIT 2783 107 FORMAT(T80,16A1//T3,10A8) 2784 C 2785 RETURN 2786 END 2787 C . 2788 C . t h i s r o u t i n e s o l v e s f o r P when household c o n s t r a i n e d 2789 C . 2790 SUBROUTINE QCON 2791 C . 2792 REAL*4 MY 2793 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(502,6),HHT(10,4),DWD(3,50 2794 * , PAR(40) ,POL(10,4),EXT(2,2,12),ZW(11),IC1(20) 2795 EQUIVALENCE (IC1(1 ) ,NZ ) ,(IC 1 (2),NMD),(IC1(3),NHT),( 2796 * ,(IC1(5),NMD1),(IC1(7),IP1),(IC1(20),NCI) 2797 * ,(PAR(2),GAMMA2),(PAR(4),BETA 1),(PAR(5),BETA2 ) 2798 * ,(PAR(3),GAMMA3),(PAR(27 ) ,COEF ) 2799 * ,(PAR(6),PO),(PAR(7),PC),(PAR(8),QM) 2800 C . 2801 DATA TOL/0.0001/ 2802 C . 2803 ENTRY PQMQI(GAMMA 1,AY,MY,EQQ,HALPHA,PB) 2804 C . —-I PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 2805 UHS=0. 280G ux=o. 2807 UA=0. 2808 C 2809 IF(IP1 . EO.10)WRITE(6, 1001)GAMMA 1,AY,MY,HALPHA,PB 2810 1001 F0RMAT(5F15.5) 281 1 RETURN 2812 C 2813 ENTRY PQNQ(IP,IS1,L,PX,QX,U,SUBA,PH, OH , UH) 28 14 c 2815 Y=0. 2816 U = - 1 . 2817 c 2818 PX = PB 28 19 QX=POL(1,L) 2820 IF(QX.LT.QM)GOTO 9 2821 IF(QH.GE.QX)RETURN 2822 c 2823 GOTO( 1 ,2.3.4,5,6),IS1 2824 c 2825 c . . . i ncome subs i dy 2826 1 Y=PB*QX/HALPHA 2827 SUBA=Y-MY 2828 GOTO 10 2829 c 2830 c . . . i nk i nd subs i dy 2831 2 Y=PB*QX/HALPHA 2832 SUBA=Y-MY 2833 IF(SUBA.GT.PB*QX)SUBA=PB*QX 2834 GOTO 10 2835 c 2836 c ... d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d 2837 C ... s o l v e f o r U=UH at OX 2838 3 IF(UH.EQ.O.)RETURN 2839 CALL PQDCI(UH.PX,OX,HALPHA,MY,PB.NZ,GAMMA 1) 2840 CALL PODC(PX,Pd) 2841 c 2842 IF(PJ.EQ.O.)RETURN 2843 SUBA=(PX-PJ)*QX 2844 c 2845 Y=MY+SUBA 2846 CALL CL$UT( U , UHS , UX , UA , OX', HALPHA , MY , MY , P<J , PB , NZ , GAM 2847 U=UH+ 0.01 2848 c 2849 GOTO 9 2850 C 2851 c ... d i r e c t q u a n t i t y 2852 4 IF(OH.EO.O.)RETURN 2853 SUBA=(QX-QH)*PB 2854 GOTO 10 2855 . c PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 2856 C . d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e 2857 5 IF(0H.E0.O.)RETURN 2858 SUBA=(QX-QH)*PB 2859 GOTO 10 2860 C . 2861 C . .. d i r e c t p r i c e s u b s i d y 2862 6 A=(HALPHA*MY)/(PB*OX) 2863 Pu=A* PX 2864 SUBA = (1 .-A)*PB*QX 2865 Y=MY+SUBA 2866 c. 2867 CALL CL$UT(U,UHS,UX,UA,OX,HALPHA,MY,MY,PJ,PB,NZ,GAM 2868 GOTO 9 2869 c. 2870 10 Y =MY + SUBA 287 1 C . 2872 CALL CL$UT(U,UHS,UX,UA,OX,HALPHA,MY,Y,PX,PB,NZ,GAMM 2873 c. 2874 9 I F ( I P 1 .EO.10)WRITE(6, 1000)IP,PX,OX,Y,U,UHS,UX,UA 2875 IF(U.LE.O.)OX=0.0 2876 RETURN 2877 C . 2878 C . .. PRICE QUANTITY AND UTILITY - EXISTING DWELLINGS 2879 c. 2880 ENTRY PQEQ(IP,IS1,L,J,PX,QX,U,SUBA,PH,QH,UH) 2881 C . 2882 U = - 1 . 2883 QX=P0L(1,L) 2884 IF(QH.GE.QX)RETURN 2885 c. 2886 QI=DWD(1,J) 2887 IZ=IFIX(DWD(2,d)) 2888 c. 2889 PX = ((QX/QI-BETA 1)*PC/(2./3.*BETA2)) +P0 2890 D= (PB/PX+GAMMA1*(1.-HALPHA)*(1.-PB/PX))*HALPHA/PB 2891 c. 2892 G0T0( 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16),IS1 2893 c. 2894 c. . . i ncome subs i dy 2895 11 Y=QX/D 2896 SUBA=Y-MY 2897 GOTO 20 2898 c. 2899 c. i n k i n d subs i dy 2900 12 Y=QX/D 2901 SUBA=Y-MY 2902 IF(SUBA.GT.PX*QX)SUBA=PX*QX 2903 GOTO 20 2904 c. 2905 c. .. d i r e c t c o n s t r a i n e d 2906 13 IF(UH.EQ.O.)RETURN P R O G R A M : F 0 9 : S I M 0 1 . F O R T 2 9 0 7 C A L L P O D C I ( U H , P X , Q X , H A L P H A , M Y , P B , I Z , G A M M A 1 ) 2 9 0 8 C A L L P O D C ( P X . P d ) 2 9 0 9 I F ( P J . E 0 . O . ) R E T U R N 2 9 1 0 C 2 9 1 1 S U B A = ( P X - P d ) * Q X 2 9 1 2 Y = M Y + S U B A 2 9 1 3 C A L L C L $ U T ( U , U H S , U X , U A , O X , H A L P H A , M Y , M Y , P J , P B , I Z , G A M 2 9 1 4 U = U H + 0 . 0 1 2 9 1 5 G O T O 1 9 2 9 1 6 C 2 9 1 7 C ... d i r e c t q u a n t i t y 2 9 1 8 1 4 I F ( Q H . E Q . O . ) R E T U R N 2 9 1 9 0 H X = ( P B / P X + G A M M A 1 * ( 1 . - H A L P H A ) * ( 1 . - P B / P X ) ) * ( H A L P H A / P 2 9 2 0 S U B A = ( Q X - Q H X ) * P X 2 9 2 1 G O T O 2 0 2 9 2 2 C 2 9 2 3 C ... d i r e c t e x p e n d i t u r e 2 9 2 4 1 5 I F ( 0 H . E Q . O . ) R E T U R N 2 9 2 5 S U B A = ( O X * P X - O H * P H ) 2 9 2 6 G O T O 2 0 2 9 2 7 C 2 9 2 8 C . . . d i r e c t pr i ce 2 9 2 9 1 6 A = ( ( 1 . - G A M M A 1 * ( 1 . - H A L P H A ) ) / P X ) 2 9 3 0 * * ( 1 . / ( 0 X / ( H A L P H A * M Y ) - G A M M A 1 * ( 1 . - H A L P H A ) / P B ) ) 2 9 3 1 - P J = A * P X 2 9 3 2 S U B A = ( 1 . - A ) * P X * Q X 2 9 3 3 Y = M Y + S U B A 2 9 3 4 C 2 9 3 5 C A L L C L $ U T ( U , U H S , U X , U A , Q X , H A L P H A , M Y , M Y , P J , P B , I Z , G A M 2 9 3 6 G O T O 1 9 2 9 3 7 C 2 9 3 8 2 0 Y = M Y + S U B A 2 9 3 9 C A L L C L $ U T ( U , U H S , U X , U A , O X , H A L P H A , M Y , Y , P X , P B , I Z , G A M M 2 9 4 0 C 2 9 4 1 1 9 I F ( I P 1 . E O . 1 0 ) W R I T E ( 6 , 1 0 0 0 ) U , P X , O X , Y , U , U H S , U X , U A 2 9 4 2 R E T U R N 2 9 4 3 C 2 9 4 4 1 0 0 0 F 0 R M A T ( I 5 , 2 F 8 . 2 , 2 F 8 . O , 3 F 8 . 2 ) 2 9 4 5 C 2 9 4 6 E N D 2 9 4 7 C 2 9 4 8 C ... s u b r o u t i n e to r e t u r n d i f f e r e n c e i n u t i l i t i e s 2 9 4 9 C 2 9 5 0 S U B R O U T I N E C A L C 5 2 9 5 1 R E A L M M Y 2 9 5 2 C 2 9 5 3 E N T R Y P O D C I ( U H , P X , Q X , H A L P H A , M Y , P B , I Z , G A M M A 1 ) 2 9 5 4 R E T U R N 2 9 5 5 C 2 9 5 6 E N T R Y F Q ( P J , F ) 2 9 5 7 C PR0GRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 2958 SUBA=(PX-PJ)*QX 2959 Y=MY+SUBA 2960 C 2961 CALL CL$UT(UX,H,X,A,OX,HALPHA,MY,MY,PJ,PB,IZ,GAMMA 1 2962 C 2963 F=UH-UX 2964 C 2965 I F ( I P 1 .EO. 10)WRITE(6, 1000) UH,UX,PJ,PX,OX,F 2966 1000 F0RMAT(2F20.2,2F10.4,F10.2, F20.5) 2967 C 2968 RETURN 2969 END 2970 C 2971 C ... r o u t i n e to match u t i l i t i e s 2972 C 2973 SUBROUTINE CALC4 2974 C 2975 DATA TOL/0.0001/ 2976 C 2977 ENTRY PQDC(PX,PJ) 2978 C 2979 B = PX 2980 C=0. 1 298 1 C 2982 IC=0 2983 ACBS=ABS(B-C) 2984 A = C 2985 C 2986 CALL FQ(A,FA) 2987 CALL FQ(B,FB) 2988 FC = FA 2989 K0UNT=2 2990 FX=AMAX1(ABS(FB),ABS(FC)) 299 1 51 IF(ABS(FC).GE.ABS(FB))G0T0 52 2992 C 2993 C ... INTERCHANGE B AND C SO THAT ABS(F(B).LE.ABS(F(C)) 2994 C 2995 A = B 2996 FA = FB 2997 B = C 2998 FB = FC 2999 C = A 3000 FC = FA 3001 52 CMB=0.5*(C-B) 3002 ACMB=ABS(CMB) 3003 C 3004 C ... TEST STOPPING CRITERION AND FUNCTION COUNT 3005 C 3006 IF(ACMB.LE.TOL)GOTO 58 3007 IF(KOUNT.GE.100)GOTO 62 3008 C PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 3009 C... CALCULATE NEW ITERATE IMPLICITLY AS B+P/O 3010 C... WHERE P.GE.O. THE IMPLICIT FORM IS USED TO 3011 C... PREVENT OVERFLOW. 3012 C . . . 3013 P=(B-A)*FB 3014 Q=FA-FB 3015 IF(P.GE.O.O)G0T0 53 3016 P=-P 3017 0=-0 3018 C .. . 3019 C... UPDATE A. CHECK IF REDUCTION IN THE SIZE OF BRACKETI 3020 C... INTERVAL IS SATISFACTORY. IF NOT, BISECT UNTIL IT IS 3021 C. . . 3022 53 A=B 3023 FA = FB 3024 IC=IC+1 3025 IF(IC.LT.4)G0T0 54 3026 IF(8.O*ACMB.GE.ACBS)G0T0 56 3027 IC=0 3028 ACBS=ACMB 3029 C . . . 3030 C... TEST FOR TOO SMALL A CHANGE 3031 C... 3032 54 IF(P.GT.ABS(0)*TOL)GOTO 55 3033 C . . . 3034 C... INCREMENT BY TOLERANCE 3035 C . . . 3036 B=B+SIGN(TOL,CMB) 3037 GOTO 57 3038 C . . . 3039 -C... ROOT OUGH TO BE BETWEEN B AND (C+B)/2 3040 C . . . 3041 55 IF(P.GE.CMB*Q)GOTO 56 3042 C . . . 3043 C... USE SECANT RULE 3044 B=B+P/0 3045 GOTO 57 3046 C . . . 3047 56 B=0.5*(C+B) 3048 C . . . 3049 C... HAVE COMPLETED COMPUTATION FOR NEW ITERATE B 3050 C. . . 3051 57 CALL F0(B,FB) 3052 IF(FB.E0.O.O)GOT0 59 3053 IF(FB.E0.-1.E5)G0T0 62 3054 K0UNT=K0UNT+1 3055 IF(SIGN( 1 .0, FB) .NE . SIGN( 1 .0, FC) )G0T0 51 3056 C=A CD 3057 FC=FA °> 3058 GOTO 51 3059 C . . . PROGRAM:F09:SIM01.FORT 3060 C... FINISHED SET I FLAG 3061 C. . . 3062 58 IF(SIGN(1.0,FB).EQ.SIGN(1.0,FC))GOTO 61 3063 IF(ABS(FB).GT.FX)GOTO 60 3064 IFLAG=1 3065 GOTO 30 3066 59 IFLAG=2 3067 GOTO 30 3068 60 IFLAG=3 3069 GOTO 30 3070 61 IF LAG = 4 3071 B=0.0 3072 GOTO 30 3073 62 IFLAG=5 3074 B=0.0 3075 GOTO 30 3076 C . . . 3077 30 Pu=B 3078 RETURN 3079 END PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 1 CS F10:SIM02.FORT 2 n CCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCCC J 4 c HOUSING MARKET SIMULATION PROGRAM with MODIFIED MODE 5 6 ccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccccc 7 8 C0MM0N/BLK8/DU1(36720) 9 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(120,10),HHT(10,6),DWD(3,1 10 * ,PAR(40),POL(10,4),EXT(2,2,12),ZW(11),IC1(20),IPOL 1 1 REAL*4 DAT(8) 12 EQUIVALENCE (PAR(21 ) ,DAT( 1 )),(PAR(31),TOL) 13 * ,(IC1(8).IOP),(IC1(10),NS),(IC1(20),NCI),(IC1(6),M 14 * ,(IC1 (7),IP1) 15 c. . . 16 CALL CL$1(IR) 17 C D C CALL REREAD 18 MSIZE=120 19 IP=0 20 IG=0 21 c. . . 22 c. . . l o a d DATA 23 5 CALL IN$DAT(NER,IP,IG,IR) 24 CALL 0T$1 25 c. . . c a l c tt groups and e r r o r check 26 CALL CL$2(NER) 27 c. . . 28 IP1=IP 29 c. . . 30 CALL 0T$2(NER,IP1) 31 IF(IP1.GE.1.AND.IP1.LE.10.AND.(IOP.EQ.1.OR.IOP.EQ.2 32 c. . . 33 c. . . "parameter" i t e r a t i o n c o n t r o l 34 c. . . 35 IR 1 = 1 36 IR2=1 37 IT1=0 38 IT2=0 39 c. . . 40 c. . . check f o r i t e r a t i o n parameters 41 c. . . 42 IF(IOP.EQ. 1.AND.DAT(1).NE.0. ) IT 1 = 1 43 IF(I0P.EQ.1.AND.DAT(2).NE.O.)IT2=2 44 c. . . 45 IF(I0P.EQ.2.AND.DAT(3)+DAT(5).NE.O. ) IT 1=3 46 IF(I0P.EQ.2.AND.DAT(4)+DAT(6).NE.O.)IT2=4 47 c. . . 48 IF(IT1+IT2.EQ.O)G0T0 10 49 IF(DAT(3).EQ.O..AND.IT1.EQ.3)DAT(3)=PAR(3) 50 IF(DAT(5).EQ.0. .AND.IT1 . EQ.3)DAT(5)=PAR(5) PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 51 IF(0AT(4).EO.O..AND.IT2.EO.4)DAT(4)=PAR(4) 52 IF(DAT(6).EO.O. .AND. IT2.EO.4)DAT(6)=PAR(6) 53 C . . . 54 14 IF(IT1.E0.O)G0T0 11 55 IR1=4 56 B1=PAR(IT1) 57 IF(I0P.EQ.2)B5=PAR(5) 58 11 IF(IT2.EQ.0)G0T0 10 59 IR2=4 60 B2=PAR(IT2) 61 IF(I0P.EQ.2)B6=PAR(6) 62 C . . . 63 10 DO 3 I 1 = 1,IR1 64 IF(IR1 .EO. 1)G0T0 12 65 PAR( IT1 )=B1 + ((DAT(IT1)-B1)/3. )*FLOAT( 11-1) 66 I F ( I OP . EO.2)PAR(5)=B5+((DAT(5)-B5)/3. )*FLOAT(I 1-1) 67 C . . . 68 12 DO 3 12=1,IR2 69 IF(IR2.EO.1)GOTO 13 70 PAR(IT2)=B2+((DAT(IT2)-B2)/3.)*FLOAT(12-1) 71 IF(IOP.EO.2)PAR(6)=B6+((DAT(6 )-B6)/3.)*FLOAT(12-1) 72 C . . . 73 I F ( I 1 .NE. 1 )IP1=0 74 C . . . 75 13 CALL CL$3(IP1,1ST) 76 C... output i n i t i a l c o n d i t i o n s 77 CALL 0T$3(IP1 ) 78 C... s i m u l a t i n g f o r convergence i n e x t e r n a l i t i e s 79 DO 1 1=1,NCI 80 L = I 81 IF(L.GT.2)L=2 82 C . . . 83 C... c a l c f u l l u t i l i t y f o r each s i m u l a t i o n run 84 CALL CL$4 85 IF(IP1 .GE.2.AND.IP1.LE.10)CALL 0T$4(IP1) 86 C . . . 87 C. . . c a l 1 s o r t r o u t i n e 88 CALL SRT$1(L) 89 IF(IP1 .GT.2.AND.IP1.LE. 10)CALL 0T$4A(IP1) 90 C. . . a l 1 o c a t i on rout i ne 91 CALL CL$5(IP) 92 IF(IP1 .EO. 10.AND.NS.NE.0)CALL CL$SB1(1) 93 I F ( I P 1 .EO.10)CALL 0T$5 94 C... c a l c e x t e r n a l i t i e s 95 CALL CL$10(SER) 96 CALL 0T$1O(SER) 97 IF(SER.LT.T0L)G0T0 2 _g 98 C. . . CXI 99 1 CONTINUE ^3 100 C . . . 101 2 IF(NS.NE.0)CALL CL$SB1(2) PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 102 IF(IP1 .EO. 1 .OR.IP1 .E0.2)CALL 0T$5 103 C . 104 IF(IOP.EO.1.OR.IOP.EO.2)CALL CL$20(IOP) 105 IF(I0P.EQ.3)CALL 0T$7 10S IF(NS.NE.0)CALL OT$SB 107 IF(I0P.EQ.3)CALL OT$BS 108 IF(IG.NE.0)CALL AL$GRP(IG) 109 3 CONTINUE 1 10 C . 1 1 1 C . r e s e t parameters 1 12 IF(IT1 .NE.0)PAR(IT1)=B1 1 13 IF(IT2.NE.0)PAR(IT2)=B2 1 14 IF(IT1 .NE.0.AND.IDP.EO.2)PAR(5)=B5 1 15 IF(IT 2 .NE.0.AND.IOP.EO.2)PAR(6)=B6 1 16 C . 1 17 GOTO 5 1 18 END 1 19 C . 120 C . 121 SUBROUTINE IN$DAT(NER,IP,IG,IR) 122 C . . r o u t i n e to loa d the REQUIRED data. 123 REALM DAT (8 ) 124 INTEGERM C1 ,C2 125 REAL*8 ERR(10) 126 C0MM0N/BLK8/ERR,RD(12) 127 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(120,10),HHT(10,6),DWD(3,1 128 * ,PAR(40),P0L(10,4),EXT(2,2, 12) ,ZW(11),IC1(20),I POL 129 COMMON/PARA/AB(15,4,10),DD(25) 130 C0MM0N/BLK22/ACT(12,20) 131 EQUIVALENCE (PAR(21 ) ,DAT( 1 ) ) ,(IC1(20),NCI) 132 * ,(IC1 (6),MSIZE),(IC1(8),IOP) 133 * ,(PAR(32),PPP) 134 C 135 C . input data format 136 C . DATA type i d e n t i f i e r . 137 C . 1234 :56789 :*1234 :56789 138 C . 0000 t i t l e 139 C . 10 hholds : income: type : taxabl e : taxes : "/return : H 140 C . 20 hhlds types income :0 :Q01 :Q02 :Q03 :Q 141 C . 21 hhlds types:parameters Q01 142 C . AO :A1 :B11 :B12 :B22 BM1 :BM2 :MXH :MXG : 143 C . 22 hhlds types:parameters Q02 144 C . AO :A1 :B11 :B12 :B22 BM1 :BM2 :MXH :MXG : 145 C . 23 hhlds types:parameters Q03 146 C . AO :A1 :B11 :B12 :B22 BM1 :BM2 :MXH :MXG : 147 C . 24 hhlds types:parameters Q04 148 C . AO :A1 :B11 :B12 :B22 BM1 :BM2 :MXH :MXG : 149 C . 150 C . 30 d w e l l i n g s : s e r v i c e s : z o n e : t e n u r e 151 C . 40 zonal : " w e a l t h " : d i s t a n c e 152 C . PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 153 C 5001 EXT 1 (wealth) 154 C 5002 EXT2 ( a c c e s s ) 155 C 156 C 5003 B1 ( r e n t a l ) 157 C 5004 B2 ( r e n t a l ) 158 C 5005 B1 (owners) 159 C 5006 B2 (owners) 160 C 161 C 5007 OC ( r e n t a l ) 162 C 5008 OC (owners) 163 C 501 1 RPC ( r e n t a l ) 164 C 5012 RPO ( r e n t a l ) 165 C 5013 ROM ( r e n t a l ) 166 C 167 C 5016 OPC (owners) 168 C 5017 OPO (owners) 169 C 5018 OQM (owners) 170 C 171 C 5020 CPI 172 C 70 a c t u a l z o n a l : p r i c e 173 C 810 POLICY equat:TYPE :PAR1: : :: 174 . C 8200 :ELIGIBLE HOUSEHOLD TYPES 175 C 8300 :GIVEN NEW PUBLIC HOUSING 176 C 8400 DEDUCTION IN PURCHASING 177 C 9100 p r i n t c o n t o l 178 c 9200 graph c o n t r o l 0 or 60 or 120 179 C 9201 graph type 1 p r i n t s u p p l y f n co-ords 180 C 9500 It ITERATIONS FOR CONVERGENCE 181 c 9900 s t a r t "POLICY" run 182 " c 9901 s t a r t e c t e r n a l i t i e s c a l i b r a t i o n run 183 C 9902 s t a r t B c a l i b r a t i o n run 184 C 9903 s t a r t "BASE" run 185 c 186 IC=0 187 c 188 120 READ(IR, 1,ERR =10,END=11)11 189 c DC 10 = 99 190 I0=IR 191 BACKSPACE IR 192 IC=IC+1 193 I F ( I 1 EQ.O)GOTO 20 194 c 195 READ(10,1,ERR=10)C1,C2,I2.RD 196 1 FORMAT(211,12,12F5.0) 197 11=10" C1+C2 198 I F (I 1 EQ.99)G0T0 16 199 G0T0(21,22,23,24,25,12,44,80,90),C1 200 c 201 c 0000" t i t l e 202 20 READ(10,3)TITLE 203 3 F0RMAT(4X,6A4) PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 204 GOTO 120 205 C... 206 C... "1CMA" household da t a 207 21 I2=I2+100*C2 208 IF(12.GT.MSIZE-1 .OR. 12 . LT. 1)GOTO 30 209 RD(5)=RD(5)/10000. 210 DO 31 1 = 1 ,8 211 IF(RD(I).EO.0.0.AND.I .LE .2)GOTO 40 212 31 HHD(12,I)=RD(I) 213 GOTO 120 214 C . . . 215 C...HOUSEHOLD TYPE DATA 216 22 G0T0(32,32,32,32),C2 217 C... "20 " mean a f t e r - t a x income 218 IF(12.GT.10.OR.12.LT.1)GOTO 30 219 DO 203 1=1,4 220 203 HHT(12,I)=RD(I) 221 GOTO 120 222 C . . . 223 C... "21 "-"24 " demand f u n c t i o n parameters 224 32 IF(I2.GT.10.OR.12.LT.1)GOTO 30 225 AB(1,C2,I2)=RD(1) 226 AB(2,C2,I2)=RD(2) 227 AB(3,C2,I2)=-(1.-ABS(RD(2))) 228 AB(4,C2,I2)=RD(3) 229 AB(5,C2,I2)=RD(4) 230 AB(6,C2,I2)=RD(4) 231 AB(7,C2,I2)=RD(6)-RD(4) 232 AB(8,C2,I2)=RD(5) 233 AB(9,C2,I2)=RD(S) 234 AB(10,C2,12)=RD(7) 235 AB( 1 1 ,C2,I2)=RD(8) 236 AB(12,C2,12) = RD(9) 237 AB( 13,C2,I 2)=RD(10) 238 GOTO 120 239 C . . . 240 C... DWELLING DATA 241 23 I2=I2+100*C2 242 IF(12.GT.MSIZE-1 .OR.12.LT. 1 )G0T0 30 243 C . . . 244 DO 133 1=1,3 245 IF(RD(I) .EO.O.)GOTO 40 246 133 DWD(I,12)=RD(I) 247 GOTO 120 248 C . . . 249 C... ZONAL DATA 250 24 IF(I2.GT.11.OR.I2.LT.1)GOTO 30 _g 251 DO 134 1=1,2 MD 252 IF(RD(I) .EQ.O.O)G0T0 40 rO 253 134 ZOD(I , I2)=RD(I) 254 GOTO 120 PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 255 C . . . 256 C... "50 " parameters 257 25 IF(12.LT.O.OR.12.GT.4O)G0T0 30 258 PAR( I2)=RD(1) 259 IF(I2.LE.6)DAT(I2)=RD(2) 260 GOTO 120 261 C. . . 262 C... "70 " zonal d a t a f o r c a l i b r a t i o n 263 44 IF( 12 .GT.20.0R.12.LT. 1)GOTO 30 264 DO 54 1=1,12 265 IF(RD(I).LT.0)GOTO 40 266 54 ACT( I ,12)=RD(I) 267 GOTO 120 268 C . . . 269 C... "8CMA" p o l i c y parameters 270 80 G0T0(81,82,83,84),C2 271 GOTO 12 272 C . . . 273 81 IF(I2.EQ.0)12=1 274 IF(12 . LT.1.OR.I 2.GT.4)GOTO 30 275 IPOL( 1 ,I2) = IFIX(RD(1)) 276 IP0L(2,I2)=IFIX(RD(1)*10.-FLOAT(IFIX(RD(1))*10)+0.1 277 DO 181 1=1,10 278 181 POL(I,I2)=RD(1+1) 279 GOTO 120 280 C... ELIGIBILITY 281 82 DO 182 1 = 1 , 10 282 182 HHT(I,5)=RD(I) 283 GOTO 120 284 C... PUBLIC HOUSING 285 83 DO 183 1=1,9 286 183 IGIVEN(I)=IFIX(RD(I)+.01) 287 GOTO 120 288 C... REDUCE PURCHASE POWER 289 84 IF(RD(1).GE.0..AND.RD(1).LT.0.2)PPP=RD(1) 290 GOTO 120 291 C... 292 C... PRINT CONTROL 293 90 1=11-90 294 I F ( I . E0.5)G0T0 95 295 G0T0(91,92),I 296 GOTO 12 297 C . . . 298 91 IP=IFIX(RD(1)) 299 GOTO 120 300 92 IF(12 . EQ.O.AND.(RD(1).EO.O.OR.RD(1).EQ.60.0R.RD(1). 301 * IG=IFIX(RD(1)) 302 IF(I2.EQ.1)ISUPLY=IFIX(RD(1)) 303 GOTO 120 304 C . . . 305 95 NCI=IFIX(RD(1)) PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 306 GOTO 120 307 C . . . 308 12 WRITE(6,2)IC 309 GOTO 13 310 C . . . 311 30 WRITE(6,4)IC 312 GOTO 13 313 C ... ' 314 10 IC=IC+1 315 WRITE(6,5)IC 316 GOTO 13 317 C . . . 318 40 WRITE(6,8)I,IC 319 C . . . 320 C . . . 321 13 CONTINUE 322 C D C 10 = 99 323 I0=IR 324 BACKSPACE IR 325 READ(10,6)ERR 326 WRITE(6,7)ERR 327 NER=2 328 GOTO 120 329 C. . . 330 C. . . 331. 16 I0P = I2 332 IF(I2.E0.99)ST0P 333 RETURN 334 C. . . 335 11 IF(IR.E0.5)ST0P 336 IR=5 337 GOTO 120 338 C. . . 339 2 FORMAT(' e r r o r i n column 1 or 2 : card',14,'Card i s : 340 4 FORMAT(' e r r o r i n column 3 or 4 :card',I4, 'Card i s 341 5 FORMAT(' read e r r o r - p r o b a b l y i n v a l i d c h a r a c t e r . C 342 6 FORMAT(10A8) 343 7 F0RMAT(' ',10A8) 344 8 FORMATC' m i s s i n g d a t a item',12,' :card',14,' Card i 345 END 346 C. . . 347 BLOCK DATA 348 C0MM0N/BLK21/ TITLE(6),D21A( 1792),ID21A(37) 349 COMMON/PARA/ DPA(625) 350 C0MM0N/BLK22/D22A(240) 351 C . . . 352 DATA TITLE/6*' '/,D21 A/1240*0.,10*2.,542*0./ 353 * , ID21A/37*0/,DPA/622*0./,D22A/240*0./ -J. 354 END VD 355 C. . . 356 SUBROUTINE CALC PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 357 C . . . 358 C... r o u t i n e s f o r INITIALISATION and CHECKing input data 359 INTEGER*4 INMD(2,2) 360 COMMON/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(120,10),HHT(10,6),DWD(3,1 361 * ,PAR(40),POL(10,4),EXT(2,2, 12) ,ZW(11),IC1(20),IPOL 362 COMMON/PARA/AB(15,4,10) 363 C0MM0N/BLK22/ACT(24O) 364 EQUIVALENCE (IC1(1 ) ,NZ ) ,(IC1(2),NMD),(IC1(3),NHT),( 365 * ,(IC1 (5),NMD1),(IC1(20),NCI) 366 * ,(IC1(6),MSIZE),(IC1(8),IOP),(IC1(10),NS),(IC1(11) 367 * ,(IGIVEN(1),IPUB) 368 * ,(PAR(11),RPO),(PAR( 12) ,RPC),(PAR(13),RQM),(PAR(14 369 * ,(PAR(16),0P0),(PAR(17),OPC),(PAR(18),OQM),(PAR(19 370 * ,(PAR(20),CPI),(PAR(28),SUBM),(IGIVEN(1),IPUB) 371 * ,(PAR(31),TOL),(PAR(33),AMAX) 372 C . . . 373 ENTRY CL$1(IR) 374 IRUN=0 375 T0L=.01 376 NCI=5 377 IR=4 378 RETURN 379 C . . . 380 ENTRY CL$2(NER) 381 IRUN=IRUN+1 382 RPN=(RP0+RPC)*1.1 383 0PN=(0P0+0PC)*1 . 1 384 C . . . 385 C... check on CPI 386 IF(CPI.NE.0.)G0T0 126 387 WRITE(6,113) 388 NER=2 389 126 CONTINUE 390 C . . . 391 DO 171 1=3,6 392 IF(IOP.EQ. 1.OR.PAR(I).NE.O.)GOTO 171 393 •WRITECS,114) 394 NERR=2 395 171 CONTINUE 396 C . . . 397 C... o b t a i n i n g number zones, d w e l l s , h h l d types and hhold 398 NHH= 1 399 NMD= 1 400 DO 1 I=1,MSIZE 401 IF(HHD(I,1).NE.0)NHH= I 402 1 IF(DWD(1,I).NE.O)NMD=I 403 NMD 1=NMD+1 , 404 C. . . vo 405 DO 2 1 = 1, NHH LTt 406 IF(HHD(I,1).NE.O)G0T0 2 407 WRITE(6,101)I PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 408 NER = 2 409 2 CONTINUE 410 C . . . 411 INMD(1,1)=1 412 INMD(2,2)=NMD 413 C. . . 4 14 DO 3 d=1,NMD 415 IF( IFIX(DWD(3,J)+.01).EO. 1)INMD(2,1)=d 416 IF(DWD(1,d).NE.O)GOTO 3 417 WRITE(6,102)d 418 NER=2 419 3 CONTINUE 420 C... 421 INMD( 1 ,2) = INMD(2 , 1) + 1 422 C . . . '423 NHT=1 424 NZ =1 425 DO 4 1 = 1 ,10 426 4 IF(HHT(I,2).NE.0)NHT = I 427 C . . . 428 DO 14 IZ=1,11 429 14 IF(ZOD(1,IZ).NE.0)NZ=IZ 430 C . . . 431 DWD(2,NMD1)=NZ 432 DO 5 1=1,NHT 433 IF(HHT(I,2).NE.0)GOTO 5 434 WRITE(6,103)1 435 NER=2 436 5 CONTINUE 437 C . . . 438 C... c h e c k i n g "TYPE" c o r r e c t 439 DO 15 1=1,NHH 440 IF(HHD(1,2).LE.NHT)GOTO 15 441 WRITE(6,105)1 442 NER=2 443 15 CONTINUE 444 C . . . 445 C... c h e c k i n g demand parameter 446 DO 18 1=1,NHT 447 DO 18 K=1,4 448 C... computing share e l a s t i c i t i e s at mean 449 AB( 14,K,I)=AB(4,K,I) + AB(2,K,I)*AB(8,K, I ) 450 AB( 15,K,I)=AB(14,K,I) 451 C . . . 452 IF(AB( 1 ,K,I)+AB(2,K,I).NE.0. )G0T0 18 453 WRITE(6,111)K,I 454 NER=2 _^ 455 18 CONTINUE MD 456 C . . . CT\ 457 AMAX=0 458 DO 6 IZ=1,NZ PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 459 IF(Z0D(2,IZ).GT.AMAX)AMAX=Z0D(2,IZ) 460 IF(ZOD(1,IZ).NE.0)GOTO 6 461 WRITE(6,104)IZ 462 NER = 2 463 6 CONTINUE 464 C . 465 c. .. c h e c k i n g "ZONE" c o r r e c t 466 DO 16 d=1 , NMD .. 467 IZ=IFIX(DWD(2,d)) 468 IF(IZ.GT.NZ)GOTO 17 469 I F ( I RUN.EO. 1 )EXT(1,2,IZ) = EXT(1,2,IZ) + 1 470 GOTO 16 47 1 c. 472 17 WRITE(6,106)d 473 NER = 2 474 16 CONTINUE 475 C . 476 IF(NERR.EQ.2)G0T0 10 477 CC I F ( I RUN.GT . 1)G0T0 10 478 EXT( 1 ,2,NZ)=FL0AT(NHH-NMD) 479 EXT(1,2,12)=AMAX0(NHH,NMD) 480 c. .. CALCULATING WEIGHTED MEAN OF INPUT EXTERNALITIES 48 1 DO 31 IZ=1,NZ 482 31 EXT( 1 , 1 ,12)=EXT(1,1,12) +(ZOD(1,IZ)*EXT( 1,2 , IZ)) 483 c. 484 EXT( 1 , 1 ,12) = EXT(1,1,12)/EXT(1,2,12) 485 c. 486 c. . . c a l c i n i t i a l e x t e r n a l i t i e s . 487 c. . . USE INPUT ACTUAL INCOMES - CM.A. MEAN CALCULATED 488 c. 489 DO 9 IZ=1,NZ 490 9 EXT( 1 , 1 ,IZ) = ZOD(1,IZ)/EXT(1,1,12) 491 c. 492 10 NS=0 493 SUBM=0. 494 IF(IP0L(1,1).EO.O)RETURN 495 c. 496 c. .. DERIVING POLICY SUB OPTIONS 497 DO 7 L=1,4 498 IF(IPOL(1,L).E0.O)G0T0 7 499 c. 500 NS = L 501 IF(POL(6,L).E0.O)P0L(6,L)=9999. 502 IF(P0L(10,L).EO.O.)POL(10,L)=9999. 503 c. 504 I=IPOL(1,L) 505 G0T0(21 ,21,21,22,22,22,23,23,23,24,24,24,25,25,25) 506 GOTO 26 507 c. 508 c. . . i ncome subs i dy 509 21 IP0L(2,L)=2 PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 510 GOTO 7 511 C. . . i n-k i nd 512 22 IF(IP0L(2,L).NE.0)GOTO 7 513 IF(P0L(4,L) + P0L(5,L).NE.0.0)I POL ( 2 , L)=5 514 IF(POL(4,L).E0.O.O)IP0L(2,L)=3 515 IF(P0L(5,L).E0.O.O)IP0L(2,L)=1 516 IF(P0L(2,L).EQ.O.O)IP0L(2,L)=IP0L(2,L)+1 5 17 GOTO 7 518 C... p r i c e s u b s i d y 519 23 IP0L(2,L)=1 520 IF(POL(1,L).LT.0.01.OR.POL(1,L).GT.5. )POL( 1 ,L) = PO 521 IF(P0L(2,L).LT.O.O1.OR.PDL(2,L).GT.5.)P0L(2,L)=PC 522 IF(P0L(3,L).LT.0.01.OR.P0L(3,L).GT.5.)P0L(3,L)=PO 523 IF(POL(4,L).LT.0.01.OR.POL(4,L).GT.5.)P0L(4,L)=PC 524 GOTO 7 525 C... d i r e c t demand s u b s i d y 526 24 IP0L(2,L)=1 527 IF(P0L(2,L).EQ.O.)IP0L(2,L)=2 528 GOTO 7 529 C . . . 530 C... d i r e c t s u p p l y s u b s i d y 531 25 IF( IP0L(2,L).GE. 1.AND.IP0L(2,L).LE.2)G0T0 7 532 IP0L(2,L)=1 533 IF(POL(2,L).EQ.O.)IP0L(2,L)=2 534 C . . . 535 C. . . 536 C... c o n s t r a i n e d MINIMUM o p t i o n 537 26 IF(IP0L(2,L).EQ.O)IP0L(2,L)=1 538 IF(POL(1,L).EQ.O. )POL( 1 ,L) = PAR(13) 539 IF(POL(2,L).EQ.O.)POL(2,L)=PAR(18) 540 SUBM=1. 541 C . . . 542 7 CONTINUE 543 C . . . 544 IF(IPUB.EQ.O)RETURN 545 C... 546 DO 830 1=2,9 547 K=IGIVEN(I) 548 IF(K . LE.NHH)GOTO 8 549 WRITE(6,107)K 550 NER=2 551 GOTO 830 552 8 IF(K.GT.O)HHD(K,2)=-HHD(K,2) 553 830 CONTINUE 554 RETURN 555 C . . . 556 101 FORMAT(' E r r o r : NO household number',14) , 557 102 FORMAT(' E r r o r : NO d w e l l i n g number',14) 558 103 FORMAT(' E r r o r : NO household type d a t a f o r ',14) CD 559 104 FORMAT(' E r r o r : NO zonal data f o r ',14) 560 105 FORMAT(' E r r o r : i n c o r r e c t "TYPE" f o r ',14) PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 561 106 FORMAT(' E r r o r : i n c o r r e c t "zone" f o r ',14) 562 107 FORMAT(' E r r o r : ' , 1 6 , ' i n c o r r e c t on "8300"') 563 1 1 1 FORMAT(' E r r o r : demand parameters- 00',I 1,' :TYPE',I 564 1 13 F0RMAT(' E r r o r : CPI z e r o ' ) 565 1 14 F0RMAT(' E r r o r : BETA parameter zer o ' ) 566 END 567 C 568 C 569 SUBROUTINE CALC1 570 C r o u t i n e s f o r C A L C u l a t i n g demand-supply i n t e r c e p t s . 571 INTEGER*2 I SUB( 1 20, 120) 572 INTEGER*2 DWC(3,120,120) 573 INTEGER*4 INMD(2,2) 574 REAL*4 DU1(7260) 575 C0MM0N/BLK8/DU1,DWC,ISUB 576 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(120,10),HHT(10,6),DWD(3,1 577 * ,PAR(40),POL(10,4),EXT(2,2, 12 ) ,ZW(11),IC1(20),I POL 578 EQUIVALENCE (IC1(2),NMD),(IC1(4),NHH),(IC1(5),NMD 1) 579 * ,(IC1(8),IOP),(IC1(10),NS),(IC1(11),INMD(1,1)) 580 C 58 1 ENTRY CL$3(IP1,1ST) 582 C 583 C 0L= % OF ON ACCEPTABLE 584 OL=0.95 585 IF(IOP.EO.1.OR.IOP.E0.2.OR.IOP.EO.3)QL=0. 586 IF( IP 1 .EO. 10)WRITE(6,999)IC1 587 999 F0RMAT(/1OI5/1OI5 588 *//' sub p r i c e q u a n t i t y Y u t i l i t y UHX 589 C 590 C CALCULATING PRICE AND QUANTITY BY HOUSEHOLD 591 C 592 DO 1 1=1,NHH 593 IH=I 594 C D IH= 1 595 C 596 DO 40 J=1,MSIZE 597 ISUB(IH,J)=0 598 DO 40 L=1,3 599 40 DWC(L,IH,u)=0 600 IS = 0 601 U1=0.0 602 C 603 K=IFIX(ABS(HHD(I,2))) 604 C 605 CALL PQY1(1,K,IT,AY,IP1) 606 CALL PQYN(0,IS,0,PJ,QN,U,SUBH,PH,QH,UH) 607 C 608 C p u b l i c nousing 609 IF(HHD(I,2).LT.0.O)G0T0 7 610 C 61 1 IF(HHT(K,5).EQ.0.0.OR.NS.EO.O)GOTO 17 PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 612 C . . . 613 DO 18 L=1,NS 614 N=IP0L(1,L) 615 IF(AY.GT.P0L(6,L))G0T0 18 616 IP=0 617 IS1=IP0L(2,L) 618 C. . . i ncome 619 IF(N.EO.1.0R.N.EQ.3)IP=1 620 C... i n - k i n d 621 IF(N.E0.4.OR.N.E0.6)IP=2 622 C. . . pr i ce 623 IF(N.EQ.7.OR.N.EO.9)IP = 3 624 C... d i r e c t demand 625 IF(N.EQ.10.0R.N.EQ. 12)IP = 4 626 C... d i r e c t s u p p l y 627 IF(N.EQ. 13.0R.N.EQ. 15)IP = 5 628 C... CONSTRAINED MINIMUM OPTION 629 IF(N.EQ.2O.0R.N.EQ.22)G0T0 16 630 C . . . 631 IF(IP.EQ.O)GOT0 18 632 IF(L.EQ.1)GOTO 20 633 C... c h e c k i n g s u b s i d y amount a g a i n s t p r e v i o u s amount 634 SUBT=SUB(IP,IS1,L,AY,P1,Q1,999) 635 IF(IP.EQ.2.AND.SUBT.GT.P1*Q1)SUBT=P1*Q1 636 C . . . 637 IF(SUBT.GE.SUBH)GOTO 19 638 C . . . 639 IF(L,EQ.NS)G0T0 17 640 20 CALL PQYN(IP,IS1,L,P1,Q1,U1,SUBH) 641 ISH=L*10+IP 642 C . . . 643 C... check that i n k i n d s u b s i d y < P*Q 644 IF(IP.NE.2)G0T0 18 645 IF(SUBH.LT.P1*Q1)G0T0 18 646 IS1=0 647 CALL PQYN(IP,IS1,L,P1,Q1,U1,SUBH) 648 GOTO 18 649 C. . . 650 C... CONSTRAINED MINIMUM OPTION 651 16 IF(QN.LT.POL(IT,L)) U=0. 652 CALL PQNQ(IP,IS1,L,P1,Q1,U1,SUBH,PH,QH,UH) 653 IF(SUBH.GT.3250.)SUBH=3250. 654 ISH=20 655 C . . . 656 18 CONTINUE 657 C. . . ™ 658 19 IF(U1.LE.U)GOTO 17 a 659 IS=ISH 660 PJ=P1 661 QN=Q1 662 U =U1 PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT G63 C . GG4 17 DWC(1,IH.NMD1)= HFIX((QN+.005)*10.) 6G5 DWC(2,IH,NMD 1 ) = HFIX(U*1000.) GG6 DWC(3,IH,NMD 1 ) = HFIX((PJ+.0005)*1000.) 6G7 I SUB(IH,NMD 1 ) = IS 668 IF( IS.EQ.20)I SUB(IH.NMD1)=HFIX((SUBH+O.005)* 10 669 C . 670 C . . . EXISTING DWELLINGS 671 NIS=INMD(1,IT) 672 NIF=INMD(2,IT) 673 C . 674 DO 11 J=NIS,NIF 675 C . 676 U1=0.0 677 IS=0 678 CALL PQYE(0,IS, 0,J,PU,Qd,U,SUBH,PH,QH,UH) 679 C . 680 IF(HHT(K,5).EQ. O.OR.NS.EQ.O)G0TO 12 681 C . 682 DO 21 L=1,NS 683 N=IPOL(1,L) 684 IF(AY.GT.P0L(6, L))GOTO 21 685 C . 686 IS1=IP0L(2,L) 687 IP=0 688 C . . . i ncome 689 I F(N.EQ.1.OR . N . EQ.2)IP=1 690 C . In-k i nd 691 IF(N.EQ.4.0R.N. EQ.5)IP=2 692 C . . . pr i ce 693 IF(N.EQ.7.0R.N. EQ.8)IP=3 694 C . . . d i r e c t demand 695 IF(N.EQ.10.0R.N .EQ.11)IP=4 696 C . .. d i r e c t supply s u b s i d y 697 IF(N.EQ.13.OR. N.EQ.14)IP=5 698 C . .. CONSTRAINED MINIMUM OPTION 699 IF(N.EQ.20.0R.N .EQ.21)GOTO 24 700 C . 701 IF(IP.EQ.O)G0T0 21 702 IF ( L . EQ. 1)GOTO 23 703 SUBT=SUB(IP,IS1 ,L,AY,P1,Q1,J) 704 IF(IP.EQ.2.AND. SUBT.GT.P1*Q1)SUBT=P1*Q1 705 C . 706 IF(SUBT.GE,SUBH)GOTO 22 707 IF ( L . EQ.NS)GOTO 12 708 C . 709 23 CALL PQYE(IP,IS1,L,d,P1,Q1,U1,SUBH) 710 ISH=L*10+IP 71 1 C . 712 C . . . check on i n k i n d s u b s i d y < P*Q 713 IF(IP.NE.2)G0T0 21 PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 714 IF(SUBH.LT.P1*Q1)GOTO 21 715 IS1=0 7 16 CALL PQYE(IP,IS1,L,J,P1,01,U1,SUBH) 717 GOTO 21 7 18 C 7 19 C CONSTRAINED MINIMUM OPTION 720 24 I F ( Q J . L T . P 0 L ( I T , L ) ) U=0. 721 CALL PQEQCIP,IS1,L,J,P1,Q1,U1,SUBH,PH,QH,UH) 722 IFCSUBH.GT.3250.)SUBH=3250. 723 ISH=20 724 C 725 21 CONTINUE 726 C 727 22 IF(U1 .LE.U)GOTO 12 728 IS=ISH 729 PJ = P1 730 QJ = Q1 731 U = U1 732 C 733 12 IF(QJ.LE.QL*QN)GOTO 11 734 DWC(1,IH,J)=HFIX((QJ+.005)*10.) 735 DWC(2, IH,J)=HFIX(U*1000. ) 736 DWC(3,IH,J)=HFIX((PJ+.0005)*1000.) 737 I SUB(IH,J) = IS 738 I F ( I S . EQ.20)ISUB(IH,J)=HFIX((SUBH+0.005)* 10. ) 739 1 1 CONTINUE 740 C 741 C . no new d w e l l i n g s f o r e x t e r n a l i t i e s c a l i b r a t i o n 742 IF(IOP.NE.1)G0T0 7 . 743 DWC(1,IH,NMD 1 )=0 744 DWC(2,IH,NMD 1 )=0 745 DWC(3,IH,NMD 1)=0 746 C . 747 7 CONTINUE 748 C . D WRITE(8'I)DWC 749 C . D WRITE(9'I)ISUB 750 1 CONTINUE 751 RETURN 752 END 753 C . 754 SUBROUTINE CALCO 755 REAL*4 PRICE(5,2),DP(15),BETA(2,2),OCD(2) 756 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(120,10),HHT(10,6),DWD(3,1 757 * ,PAR(40),POL(10,4),EXT(2,2, 12 ) ,ZW(11),IC1(20),IPOL 758 C . 759 COMMON/PARA/AB(15,4,10),SPP(10),DPP(15) 760 EQUIVALENCE (IC1(1),NZ),(IC1(2),NMD),(IC1(3),NHT),( 761 * ,(IC1(5),NMD 1 ) , ( I C 1 ( 8 ) , I O P ) , ( I C 1 ( 1 0 ) , N S ) , ( I C 1 ( 2 0 ) , 762 * ,(PAR(32),PPP),(PAR(11),PRICE(1,1)) 763 * ,(PAR(3),BETA(1,1)),(PAR(7),OCD(1)) 764 C . PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 765 ENTRY PQYI(I,K,IT,AY,IP1) 766 C 767 IT=1 768 IF(K.GT.5)IT=2 769 C . . . f o r t e s t d a t a s e t (TYPE 2 f o r c e d to be o-oer) 770 IF(IP1.GT.5 )IT=K 771 C 111 HHD(I,10)=HHD(I,1)/12. 773 IF(HHD(I,10).GT.HHT(2,K))HHD(I,10)=HHD(I,10)* 774 C 775 AY=HHD(I,10) 776 GY=HHD(I,10)+HHD(I,4)/12. 111 C 118, C ... d e r i v e base parameters to DP's - DPP's a r e var 779 C 780 CALL PARA1(K,AY,HHD(I,9),DP) 781 C 782 BSHARE =HHD(1,9) 783 C 784 B1=BETA(1,IT) 785 B2=BETA(2,IT)*4 786 0C=0CD(IT) 787 C 788 PM=DP(13) 789 C 790 PO=PRICE(1,IT) 791 PN=PRICE(4,IT) 792 0M=PRICE(3,IT) 793 C 794 IF(IP1.E0.10)WRITE(6,1010)1,K,PO,PN,QM,BSHARE 795 1010 FORMAT(/' hhold',14,' TYPE',13,2F5.2,F5.1,F8.! 796 PB = PN 797 C 798 IF(NS.EQ.0)RETURN 799 C 800 CALL POMQI(K,BSHARE,AY,QM.PB,IT) 801 C 802 RETURN 803 C 804 C ... " q u a n t i t y " - " u t i l i t y " of new c o n s t r u c t i o n "ON 805 C 806 ENTRY P0YN(IP,IS,L,PJ,0,U,SUBA,PH,OH,UH) 807 C 808 Pu = PB 809 C 810 C ... l o a d b a s i c d a t a to COMMON s t o r a g e 81 1 C 812 SPP(1) =AY 813 SPP(2) =GY 814 SPP(3) =PM 815 SPP(4) =0. o PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 816 SPP(5) =B1 817 SPP(6) = B2 818 SPP(7) =0C 819 SPP(8) =BSHARE 820 SPP(9) =DP(13) 821 SPP(10) =DP(14) 822 C . . . 823 DO 2 LL=1,15 824 2 DPP(LL)=DP(LL) 825 C . . . 826 C... s o l v e f o r 0 g i v e n PN on demand system 827 C . . . 828 SHARE=HHD(I,9)+DP(14)*ALOG(PB/DP(13)) 829 Y = A Y 830 C . . . 831 IF(IP.NE.O)G0T0 21 832 C . . . 833 C S E s o l v e f o r QN f o r g i v e n p r i c e 834 Q=SHARE*AY/PB 835 C. . . 836 IF(IP1 .EQ.10)WRITE(6,1000)IP,IS,L,PB,Q,AY,HHD( I , 9) , 837 C . . . 838 C... p u b l i c housing 839 IF(HHD(I,2).LT.0.0.AND.Q.LT.QM)Q=QM 840 GOTO 16 841 C... 842 C . . . 843 C... i t e r a t e on NET INCOME f o r SHARE v a r i a t i o n w i th SUBSI 844 21 BY = AY 845 XSHARE=SHARE 846 C. . . 847 DO 22 N=1,10 848 C. . . 849 CALL CCYN(IP,IS,L,PB,Q,AY,GY,XSHARE,DP(13),DP(14)) 850 C. . . 851 SUBA=SUB(IP,IS,L,GY,PB,Q,999,PN,0.) 852 C. . . 853 IF(SUBA.LT.O.)Q=0. 854 C. . . 855 Y=AY+SUBA 856 IF(ABS(Y-BY).LT.0.01)GOTO 16 857 C. . . 858 BY=Y 859 CALL PARA1(K,Y,XSHARE,DPP) 860 C . . . 861 XSHARE=XSHARE+DPP(14)*ALOG(PB/DPP(13)) 862 C. . . 863 IF(IP1 .EQ. 10)WRITE(6, 1011)AY,Y CD 864 1011 FORMAT(' ITS ON QN:',2F10.4) • 865 22 CONTINUE 866 C . . . PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 8G7 Y = - 1 . 868 C . 869 16 CALL CL$UT(U,UHS,UA,PM,0,Y,NZ) 870 C . 87 1 IF(IP1.EO.10)WRITE(6,1000)1,IP,IS,PB,0,Y,U,UHS,UA 872 C . 873 PH = PB 874 QH = Q 875 UH=U 876 C . 877 IF(0.LT.OM)0=0. 878 IF(Q.EQ.O.) U = 0. 879 IF(U.EQ.O.0)0=0.0 880 RETURN 881 C . 882 C . .. PRICE QUANTITY AND UTILITY - EXISTING DWELLINGS 883 C . 884 ENTRY PQYE(IP,IS,L,J,PJ,Q,U,SUBA,PH,QH,UH) 885 C . 886 U = 0.0 887 Q = 0.0 888 C . 889 DO 3 LL=1 , 15 890 3 DPP(LL)=DP(LL) 891 C . 892 QI = IFIX(DWD(1,J) ) 893 IZ = IFIX(DWD(2,J) ) 894 C . 895 C . . . l o a d b a s i c d a t a to COMMON s t o r a g e 896 C . 897 SPP(1) =AY 898 SPP(2) =GY 899 SPP(3) =PM 900 SPP(4) =QI 901 SPP(5) =B1 902 SPP(6) =B2 903 SPP(7) =0C 904 SPP(8) =BSHARE 905 SPP(9) =DP(13) 906 SPP(10) =DP(14) 907 C . 908 IF(IOP.NE.1)G0T0 11 909 C . 910 C . . . e x t e r n a l i t i e s c a l i b r a t i o n 91 1 C . .. s o l v e f o r PJ f o r g i v e n Q=QI 912 Q = QI 913 PJ=(HHD(I,9)-DP(14)*AL0G(Q/DP(10))) * A Y/Q 914 C . 915 GOTO 166 916 C . 917 C . .. s o l v e f o r both PJ @ Q PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 918 1 1 0=0. 919 PJ = 0. 920 C . 921 IF(IP.NE.O)G0T0 12 922 C . 923 CALL CCYE(IP,IS,L,PJ,0) 924 Y = AY 925 GOTO 166 926 C . 927 C . i t e r a t e on NET income f o r SHARE adjustment w i t h SUBS 928 12 BY = AY 929 DO 13 N=1, 10 930 C . 931 CALL CCYE(IP,IS,L,Pd,0) 932 C . 933 SUBA=SUB(IP,IS,L,GY,PJ,Q,J,0.,SPP(3)) 934 IF(SUBA.LT.O.)SUBA=0. 935 C . 936 Y = AY + SUBA 937 C . 938 IF(ABS(Y-BY).LT.0.05)GOTO 166 939 C . 940 IF(IP1.EO.10)WRITE(S,1001)BY,Y,SUBA,PJ,0 941 C . 942 BY = Y 943 C . 944 C . c a l l to recompute BSHARE e t c 945 C . 946 CALL PARA1(K,Y,XSHARE,DPP) 947 C . 948 SPP( 1 )=Y 949 SPP(3)=DPP(13) 950 SPP(8)=XSHARE 951 SPP(9)=DPP(13) 952 SPP(10)=DPP(14) 953 13 CONTINUE 954 C . 955 Y=0. 956 C . 957 166 CALL CL$UT(U,UHS,UA,PJ,0,Y,IZ) 958 C . 959 I F ( I P 1 .EO.10)WRITE(6,1000)J,IP,IS,PJ,0,Y,U,UHS,UA 960 C . 961 PH = PJ 962 OH = Q 963 UH = U 964 C . 965 IF(PJ.LT.PO) U=0.0 966 IF(U.EQ.O.0)0=0.0 967 RETURN 968 C . PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 969 1000 F0RMAT(I4,2I2,2F8.2,F8.0,3F12.6) 970 1001 FORMAT(10X ,3F8.2,F8.4,F8.2) 971 END 972 C 973 C 974 SUBROUTINE CALC3A 975 C 976 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(120,10),HHT(10,6),DWD(3,1 977 * ,PAR(40),POL(10,4),EXT(2,2,12),ZW(11),IC1(20),IPOL 978 C 979 ENTRY CCYN(IP,IS,L,PB,0,AY,GY,SHARE,DP13,DP14) 980 C 981 GOTO( 1 1,12,13,14, 14) ,IP 982 C i ncome 983 11 0=(SHARE/PB)*(AY + POL(1,L ) *(POL(3,L)-POL(4,L)*GY)) 984 GOTO 10 985 C i n-k i nd 986 12 G0T0(31,32,33,34,35,36),IS 987 C 988 Q=(SHARE*AY/PB)/(1.-SHARE) 989 GOTO 10 990 c 991 31 0=(SHARE/PB)*(AY-POL(1,L)*POL(4,L)*GY)/ 992 * (1.-SHARE*POL(1,L)*P0L(2,L)) 993 GOTO 10 994 32 0=(SHARE/PB)*(AY+POL(1,L)*(POL(3,L)-POL(4,L)*GY)) 995 GOTO 10 996 33 Q=(SHARE/PB)*AY/(1.-SHARE*(POL(1,L)*(POL(2,L)-POL(5 997 GOTO 10 998 34 Q=(SHARE/PB)*(AY+POL(1,L)*P0L(3,L))/ 999 * ( 1 . + SHARE*(P0L(1,L)*P0L(5,L))) 1000 GOTO 10 1001 35 0=(SHARE/PB)*AY/(1.-SHARE*(POL(1,L)*(POL(2,L)-POL(5 1002 GOTO 10 1003 36 Q=(SHARE/PB)*(AY+POL(1,L)*POL(3,L))/ 1004 * ( 1 .+SHARE*(POL(1,L)*P0L(5,L)*GY)) 1005 GOTO 10 1006 c 1007 C pr i ce 1008 13 PB=P0L(1,L)+P0L(2,L) 1009 SHARE = (HHD(I,9)+DP14*ALOG(PB/DP13)) 1010 Q=SHARE*AY/PB 101 1 GOTO 10 1012 C 1013 c d i r e c t demand and s u p p l y 1014 C 1015 14 G0T0(41,42),IS 1016 C 1017 41 0=((SHARE/PB)*AY-P0L(1,L)*POL(4,L)*GY/PB)/ 1018 * ( 1 .-POL( 1 ,L)*P0L(2,L)) • 1019 GOTO 10 PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 1020 42 Q=(SHARE/PB)*AY+(POL(1,L)*(POL(3,L)-POL(4,L)*GY))/P 1021 GOTO 10 1022 C . 1023 C . .. check MINQ 1024 10 IF(Q.LT.P0L(7,L))Q=P0L(7,L) 1025 C . 102S C . .. check MAXR 1027 IF(PB*Q.GT.POL(10,L))Q=POL(10,L)/PB 1028 C . 1029 RETURN 1030 END 1031 C . 1032 SUBROUTINE CALC3 1033 C . 1034 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(120,10),HHT(10,6),DWD(3,1 1035 * ,PAR(40),P0L(10,4),EXT(2,2, 12),ZW(11),IC1(20),I POL 1036 COMMON/PARA/AB(15,4,10),SPP(10) 1037 C . 1038 EQUIVALENCE (SPP( 1 ) , AY ) , (SPP(3),PM),(SPP(4),QI),(SP 1039 * , (SPP(6),B2),(SPP(7),OC),(SPP(8).BSHARE) 1040 C . 1041 DATA TOL/O.00001/ 1042 C . 1043 C . .. CL$PR COMPUTES A ROOT OF THE NON-LINEAR EQUATION FUN 1044 C . .. METHOD USED IS A COMBINATION OF BISECTION AND THE SE 1045 C . 1046 ENTRY CCYE(IP,IS,L,PJ,Q) 1047 C . 1048 B=BSHARE*AY/(B1*QI) 1049 C=BSHARE*AY/(1.5*QI) 1050 C . 1051 C . 1052 IF(B.LT.OC)GOTO 62 1053 IF(C.GT.PM)GOTO 62 1054 C . 1055 IC=0 1056 ACBS=ABS(B-C) 1057 A = C 1058 FA=FUN(IP,IS,L,A) 1059 FB=FUN(IP,IS,L,B) 1060 FC = FA 1061 K0UNT=2 1062 FX = AMAX 1(ABS(FB),ABS(FC)) 1063 51 IF(ABS(FC).GE.ABS(FB))G0T0 52 1064 C . 1065 C . .. INTERCHANGE B AND C SO THAT ABS(F(B).LE.ABS(F(C)) 1066 C . 1067 A = B 1068 FA = FB 1069 B = C 1070 FB = FC PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 1071 C=A 1072 FC=FA 1073 52 CMB=0.5*(C-B) 1074 ACMB=ABS(CMB) 1075 C . . . 1076 C... TEST STOPPING CRITERION AND FUNCTION COUNT 1077 C. . . 1078 IF(ACMB.LE.TOL)GOTO 58 1079 IF(K0UNT.GE.5OO)G0T0 62 1080 C . . . 1081 C... CALCULATE NEW ITERATE IMPLICITLY AS B+P/Q 1082 C... WHERE P.GE.O. THE IMPLICIT FORM IS USED TO 1083 C... PREVENT OVERFLOW. 1084 C . . . 1085 P=(B-A)*FB 1086 Q=FA-FB 1087 IF(P.GE.O.O)G0T0 53 1088 P=-P 1089 0=-0 1090 C . . . 1091 ' C... UPDATE A. CHECK IF REDUCTION IN THE SIZE OF BRACKETI 1092 C... INTERVAL IS SATISFACTORY. IF NOT, BISECT UNTIL IT IS 1093 C. . . 1094 53 A = B 1095 FA = FB 1096 IC=IC+1 1097 IF(IC.LT.4)G0T0 54 1098 IF(8.0*ACMB.GE.ACBS)GOTO 56 1099 IC=0 1100 ACBS = ACMB 1101 C... 1102 C... TEST FOR TOO SMALL A CHANGE 1103 C. . . 1104 54 IF(P.GT.ABS(Q)*T0L)G0T0 55 1 105 C . . . 1106 C... INCREMENT BY TOLERANCE 1107 C. . . 1108 B=B+SIGN(T0L,CMB) 1109 GOTO 57 1110 C . . . 1111 C... ROOT OUGH TO BE BETWEEN B AND (C+B)/2 1112 C . . . 1113 55 IF(P.GE.CMB*Q)GOTO 56 1114 C... 1115 C... USE SECANT RULE 1116 B=B+P/Q 1117 GOTO 57 1118 C... 1119 56 B=0.5*(C+B) 1 120 C . . . 1121 C... HAVE COMPLETED COMPUTATION FOR NEW ITERATE B PROGRAM:F10:5IM02.FORT 1 122 C . 1 123 57 FB=FUN(IP,IS,L,B) 1 124 IF(FB.EQ.O.O)G0T0 59 1 125 IF(FB.EQ.-1.E5)G0T0 62 1 126 K0UNT=K0UNT+1 1 127 IF(SIGN(1.0,FB).NE.SIGN(1.0,FC))G0T0 51 1 128 C = A 1 129 FC = F A 1 130 GOTO 51 1 1.31 C . 1 132 C . FINISHED SET I FLAG 1 133 C . 1 134 58 IF(SIGN(1.0,FB).EQ.SIGN(1.0,FC))G0T0 61 1 135 IF(ABS(FB).GT.FX)GOTO 60 1 136 IF LAG=1 1 137 GOTO 30 1 138 59 IFLAG=2 1 139 GOTO 30 1 140 60 IFLAG=3 1 141 GOTO 30 1 142 61 IFLAG=4 1 143 RETURN 1 144 62 IF LAG = 5 1 145 RETURN 1 146 C . 1 147 30 PJ=B 1 148 C . 1 149 Q=(B1+B2*(PJ-0C)/PM) * 01 1 150 IF(Q.LT.B1*QI)Q=B1*QI 1151 C . 1 152 C . .. CHECK MINQ 1 153 IF(IP.EO•0)RETURN 1 154 IF(Q.GE.P0L(7,L))G0T0 65 1 155 Q=P0L(7,L) 1 156 IF(O.LT.B1*0I)0=O. 1 157 PJ=((Q/QI-B1)*PM/B2)+ OC 1 158 C . 1 159 C . .. check MAXR 1 160 65 IF(PJ*Q.LT.POL(10,L))RETURN 1 161 C . 1 162 IF(IP1.EO.10)WRITE(1,1000)J,IP,IS.PJ.O 1 163 C . 1 164 0=B1*0I 1 165 PJ=P0L(10,L)/0 1 166 IF(Pd.LE.OC)RETURN 1 167 C . 1 168 AC=1 . 1 169 BC=-(B1-(B2*0C/PM))*0I 1 170 CC=-(B2*P0L(10,L)/PM)*OI 1171 C . 1 172 IF(IP1 .EO. 10)WRITE(1, 1001)AC,BC,CC PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 1 173 0=0DD(AC,BC,CC) 1 174 C . . . 1 175 107 PJ=((Q/QI-B1)*PM/B2)+ OC 1 176 RETURN 1 177 1000 F0RMAT(3I3,F8.4,F8. 1 ) 1 178 1001 F0RMAT(T1O,3F15.5) 1 179 C . . . 1 180 END 1 181 C . . . 1 182 FUNCTION FUN(IP,IS.L.Pd) 1 183 C . . . 1 184 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(120,10),HHT(10,6),DWD(3,1 1 185 * ,PAR(40),POL(10,4),EXT(2,2, 12) ,ZW(11),IC1(20), IPOL 1 186 COMMON/PARA/AB(15,4,10),SPP(10) 1 187 C . . . 1 188 EQUIVALENCE (SPP( 1 ) ,AY) ,(SPP(2),GY),(SPP(3) , PM) , (SP 1 189 * ,(SPP(5) ,B1 ) ,(SPP(6),B2),(SPP(7) , OC) . (SP 1 190 * ,(SPP(9) ,DP13),(SPP(10),DP14) 1 191 * ,( IC1 (7),IP1) 1 192 C . . . 1 193 C . . . 1 194 IF(IP1.EQ. 10)WRITE(6, 1 1 11)BSHARE 1 195 SHARE=(BSHARE+DP14*AL0G(Pd/PM)) 1 196 IF( IP1 . EQ. 10)WRITE(6, 1 1 1 1 )SHARE,AY,Pd,PM 1 197 C . . . 1 198 D=SHARE/Pd 1 199 IF(PJ.GT.0C)S=(B1+B2*(Pd-0C)/PM) *QI 1200 IF(Pd.LE.0C)S=B1*QI 1201 C . . . 1202 FUN=-1.E5 1203 C . . . 1204 GOTO(1,2,3,4,5) , IP 1205 C . . . 1206 C . . . b a s i c f u n c t i o n 1207 FUN=D*AY -S 1208 IF(IP1.EQ.10)WRITE(6,1200)D,S,FUN 1209 1200 FORMAT(3F20.10) 1210 RETURN 1211 C . . . 1212 C . . . INCOME 1213 1 FUN=D*(AY+POL(1,L)*(POL(3,L)-POL(4,L)*GY)) - s 1214 RETURN 1215 C . . . 1216 C . . . IN-KIND 1217 2 G0T0(21,22,23,24,25,26),IS 1218 C . . . 1219 IF(1.-Pd*D.EO.O.)RETURN 1220 FUN=(D*AY)/(1.-Pd*D) -S 1221 RETURN 1222 C . . . 1223 2 1 IF( 1 .-D*Pd.EQ.O.)RETURN PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 1224 FUN=D*(AY-POL(1,L)*P0L(4,L)*GY)/(1.-D*POL(1,L)*P0L( 1225 RETURN 1226 C 1227 22 FUN=D*(AY+POL(1,L)*(POL(3,L)-POL( 4 , L)*GY)) -S 1228 RETURN 1229 C 1230 23 IF(D*POL( 1 ,L)*(P0L(2,L)-P0L(5,L))*PJ.EQ.1.)RETURN 1231 FUN=D*AY/(1.-D*POL(1,L)*(POL(2,L)-POL(5,L))*PU) -S 1232 RETURN 1233 C 1234 24 FUN=D*(AY+P0L(1,L)*POL(3,L))/(1.+D*P0L(1,L)*POL(5,L 1235 RETURN 1236 C 1237 25 FUN=D*AY/(1.-D*POL(1,L)*(POL(2,L)-POL(5,L)*GY)*PJ) 1238 RETURN 1239 C 1240 26 FUN=D*(AY+POL(1,L)*POL ( 3 , L ) ) / ( 1 .+D*POL(1,L)*POL(5,L 1241 RETURN 1242 C 1243 C pr i ce 1244 3 SHARE=BSHARE+DP14*AL0G(PJ/(P0L(3,L)+P0L(4,L))) 1245 D=SHARE/PJ 1246 FUN=D*AY -S 1247 RETURN 1248 C 1249 C d i r e c t demand 1250 4 G0T0(41 ,42),IS 1251 C 1252 41 FUN=(D*AY-P0L(1,L)*POL(4,L)*GY /Pd)/( 1 .-POL(1,L)*P0 1253 RETURN 1254 42 FUN=(D*AY+POL(1,L)*(POL(3,L)-POL(4,L)*GY)/PU) -S 1255 RETURN 1256 C 1257 C . . . d i r e c t supply 1258 5 G0T0(51,52),IS 1259 C 1260 51 FUN=D*AY -(S-POL( 1 , L ) *P0L(4,L)*GY/Pd)/(1.-POL(1,L)* 1261 RETURN 1262 52 FUN=D*AY -(S+POL(1,L)*(POL(3,L)-POL(4,L)*GY)/PJ) 1263 RETURN 1264 1111 F0RMAT(5F12.5) 1265 END 1266 C 1267 SUBROUTINE PARA 1 (K,YY,BSHARE,DP) 1268 C 1269 REALM DP( 15) 1270 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(120,10),HHT(10,6),DWD(3,1 1271 * ,PAR(40),POL(10,4),EXT(2,2, 12),ZW(11),IC1(20),I POL 1272 C 1273 C0MM0N/PARA/AB(15,4,10) 1274 IS=1 PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 1275 DO 2 11=1,4 1276 I F = I 1 1277 IF(YY . LT.HHT(K,11))GOTO 3 1278 2 I S = I 1 1279 C . 1280 3 WS=0.5 1281 WF=0.5 1282 IF(IS.EQ.IF)GOTO 5 1283 C . 1284 WF = (YY-HHT(K,IS))/(HHT(K,IF)-HHT(K,IS)) 1285 WS=1.-WF 1286 C . 1287 C . 1288 5 DO 1 11=1,15 1289 1 DP(I 1)=AB(I 1,IS,K)*WS + AB(I 1,IF,K)*WF 1290 A1=-DP(2) 1291 BSHARE=A1 1292 IF(IS.EQ.IF)BSHARE = A1+AB(15,IS,K)*ALOG(YY/DP( 12) ) 1293 * /HHT(K,IS) 1294 RETURN 1295 END 1296 C . 1297 FUNCTION SUB(IP,IS,L,GY,P,Q,ND,PN,PM) 1298 C . 1299 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(120,10),HHT(10,6),DWD(3,1 1300 * ,PAR(40),POL(10,4),EXT(2,2, 12 ) ,ZW(11),IC1(20),IPOL 1301 C . 1302 C . 1303 G0T0(1,2,3,4,4),IP 1304 C . 1305 SUB=0.0 1306 RETURN 1307 C . i ncome 1308 1 SUB=(P0L(1,L)*(P0L(3,L)-P0L(4, L)*GY) ) 1309 RETURN 1310 C . 1311 2 G0T0(21,22,23,24,25,26),IS 1312 C . 1313 SUB=P*Q 1314 RETURN 1315 C . 1316 21 SUB=(P0L(1,L)*(P0L(2,L)*P*Q-POL(4,L)*GY)) 1317 RETURN 1318 C . 1319 22 SUB=(P0L(1,L)*(P0L(3,L)-P0L(4,L)*GY)) 1320 RETURN 1321 C . 1322 23 SUB=(P0L(1,L)*(P0L(2,L)-P0L(5,L))*P*Q) 1323 RETURN 1324 C . 1325 24 SUB=(P0L(1,L)*(P0L(3,L)-P0L(5,L)*P*Q)) PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 1326 RETURN 1327 C . . . 1328 25 SUB=(P0L(1,L ) *(POL(2,L)*P*Q-P0L(5,L)*GY*P*Q)) 1329 RETURN 1330 C. . . 1331 26 SUB=(P0L(1,L)*(P0L(3,L)-P0L(5,L)*GY*P*Q)) 1332 RETURN 1333 C... p r i c e 1334 3 IF(ND.GT.500)SUB=0* (PN-(POL(1,L)+P0L(2,L))) 1335 IF(ND.LE.500)SUB=Q* (PM-(POL(3,L)+POL(4,L))) 1336 RETURN 1337 C . . . 1338 C... d i r e c t demand and s u p p l y 1339 4 G0T0(41,42),IS 1340 C . . . 1341 41 SUB=P0L(1,L)*(P0L(2,L)*P*Q-P0L(4,L)*GY) 1342 RETURN 1343 C . . . 1344 42 SUB=P0L(1,L)*(P0L(3,L)-P0L(4,L)*GY) 1345 RETURN 1346 C . . . 1347 END 1348 C . . . 1349 FUNCTION 0DD(A,B,C) 1350 C . . . 1351 0DD=0. 1352 C . . . 1353 D=B**2 -4*A*C 1354 IF(D . LE.0. )RETURN 1355 D=SQRT(D) 1356 C . . . 1357 IF(A.EO.O.)G0T0 1 1358 IF(B.GE.O. )X 1 =-(B+D )/(2.*A) 1359 IF(B.LT.O. )X 1 = (D-B )/(2.*A) 1360 X2=C/(X1*A) 1361 0DD=X1 1362 IF(X1 . LT.O. )QDD = X2 1363 RETURN 1364 C . . . 1365 1 ODD=-C/B 1366 RETURN 1367 END 1368 C . . . 1369 C . . . 1370 SUBROUTINE UTILL 1371 C... r o u t i n e to c a l c u l a t e u t i l i t y 1372 REAL*4 LNU,LQ,LQX 1373 CDMM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(120,10),HHT(10,6),DWD(3,1 1374 * ,PAR(40),P0L(10,4),EXT(2,2, 12) ,ZW(11),IC1(20),IPOL 1375 COMMON/PARA/AB(15,4,10),SPP(10),DPP(15) 1376 EQUIVALENCE (PAR(2 ) ,EXT2 ) ,(PAR(33),AMAX) ,(PAR(20). PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 1377 * ,(IC1(7),IP1) 1378 C 1379 ENTRY CL$UT(U,UHX,UA,P,0,Y,IZ) 1380 C 1381 U=0.0 1382 UHX=0. 1383 UA=0. 1384 C 1385 IFCQ.LE.O.)RETURN 1386 IF(P*Q.GE.Y)RETURN 1387 C 1388 LQ=AL0G(Q/DPP(10)) 1389 LOX=ALOG(((Y-P*0)/CPI)/DPP(11)) 1390 LNU=-(DPP(1)+DPP(2)*LQ+DPP(3)*LQX 1391 * +0.5*(DPP(4)*LQ*LQ+(DPP(5)+DPP(6))*LQ*LQX+DPP(7 ) *L 1392 UHX=EXP(LNU) 1393 C 1394 UA=EXP(EXT2/10.*AL0G(2.-Z0D(2,IZ)/AMAX)) 1395 C 1396 U=UHX*UA 1397 C 1398 IF(IP1.EO.10)WRITE(6,1000)LO,LQX,LNU,UHX,U 1399 RETURN 1400 1000 FORMATC U',6F12.5) 1401 END 1402 C 1403 C 1404 SUBROUTINE CALC2 1405 INTEGER*4 J0(2,3) 1406 REALM SKEY(120),SOL(120,4),PDW(120),0(3),SKS(120) 1407 INTEGER*2 NDW(120),IODW(120,120),UAHH(120),ISUB(120 1408 * ,IS0L(12O,2) 1409 INTEGER*2 DWC(3,120,120) 1410 C0MM0N/BLK8/NDW,IODW,DWC,I SUB,UAHH,I SOL,SOL 141 1 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(120,10),HHT(10,6),DWD(3, 1 1412 * ,PAR(40),P0L(10,4),EXT(2,2,12),ZW(11),IC1(20),IPOL 1413 EOUIVALENCE (IC1(1),NZ ) ,(IC1(2),NMD),(IC1(3),NHT),( 1414 * , ( IC1(5) , NMD 1),(IC1(6),MSIZE),(IC1(10),NS) 1415 * ,(PAR(2),EXT 1 ) 1416 * ,(PAR(28),SUBM) 1417 C 1418 EQUIVALENCE (S0L(1,4),PDW(1),SKEY(1)) 1419 C 1420 ENTRY SRT$1(KJ) 1421 C . . . s o r t i ng rout i ne 1422 C ... o r d e r a l l households by "model" income to UAHH 1423 C ... o r d e r each household's d w e l l i n g s t a c k i n terms of de 1424 C ut i 1 i ty to IODW 1425 .C 1426 IF(KJ.EQ.2)G0T0 4 1427 C PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 1428 C . .. s o r t i n g households by "model" income 1429 DO 1 1=1,NHH 1430 1 SKEY(I)=HHD(I, 10) 1431 C . 1432 DO 3 K=1,NHH 1433 IS=0 1434 X=0. 1435 C . 143G DO 2 N=1,NHH 1437 IF(SKEY(N).LE. X)G0T0 2 1438 X=SKEY(N) 1439 IS=N 1440 2 CONTINUE 1441 C . 1442 SKEY(IS ) = - 1 . 1443 3 UAHH(K)=IS 1444 C . 1445 UAHH(NHH+1)=NHH+1 1446 C . 1447 C . . . s o r t i ng dwel1i ng s t a c k 1448 C . 1449 4 DO 10 1=1,NHH 1450 C . D READ(8'I)DWC 1451 IH=I 1452 C . D IH= 1 1453 DO 25 d=1.MSIZE 1454 25 I0DW(IH,J)=0 1455 C . 1456 DO 11 u=1,NMD1 1457 IZ=DWD(2,d) 1458 SKEY(d)=DWC(2, IH,U)*ZW(IZ) 1459 SKS(J)=0. 1460 IF(SUBM.EQ.O.)G0T0 11 1461 SKS(J)=ISUB(I, J) 1462 IF(SKEY(d).EQ. 0.)SKS(J)=9. 1E10 1463 11 CONTINUE 1464 C . 1465 DO 13 J=1,NMD 1 1466 IS=0 1467 X = 0. 1468 C . 1469 S=9.E10 1470 C . 1471 IF(SUBM.EQ.O.)G0T0 14 1472 C . 1473 C . .. f i n d lowest s u b s i d y amount 1474 DO 15 N=1,NMD 1 1475 15 IF(SKS(N).LT.S)S=SKS(N) 1476 C . 1477 14 DO 12 N=1,NMD 1 1478 IF(SKS(N).GT.S)GOTO 12 PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 1479 IF(SKEY(N).LE.X)GOTO 12 1480 X=SKEY(N) 1481 IS=N 1482 12 CONTINUE 1483 IF(X.LE.0.)GOTO 10 1484 SKEY(IS)=-1. 1485 SKS(IS)=9.1E10 1486 IODW(IH,J) = IS 1487 IF(IS.E0.NMD1)G0T0 10 1488 C. . . 1489 13 CONTINUE 1490 10 CONTINUE 1491 C.D10 WRITE(7'I)IODW 1492 RETURN 1493 C . . . 1494 C... c a l c u l a t i n g TOTAL " u t i l i t y " each run 1495 C... r e l a t i v e w ealth u t i l i t y 1496 C . . . 1497 ENTRY CL$4 1498 C . . . 1499 DO 22 IZ=1,NZ 1500 22 ZW(IZ)=EXP(EXT1/10.*ALOG(EXT( 1 , 1,IZ))) 1501 C... 1502 C . . . 1503 RETURN 1504- C... 1505 C... a l l o c a t e households among d w e l l i n g s 1506 C. . . 1507 ENTRY CL$5(IP) 1508 C . . . 1509 IS=0 1510 10=0 1511 C . . . 1512 DO 26 I=1,MSIZE 1513 NDW(I)=0 1514 DO 27 d=1,4 1515 27 SOL(I,d)=0.0 1516 DO 26 d=1,2 1517 26 IS0L(I,d)=O 1518 C . . . 1519 IF(IP.EQ.10)WRITE(6,101) 1520 101 FORMATC1'/' *** t r a c i n g HOUSEHOLD ASSIGMENTs'// 1521 " * 3 ( ' HHOLD DWELL PRICE ')) 1522 C . . . 1523 DO 44 IS=1,NHH 1524 C . . . 1525 NH=UAHH(IS) 1526 C . . . 1527 NX=UAHH(IS+1) 1528 C . . . 1529 C... LOOP START FOR DISPLACED HOUSEHOLD PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 1530 43 CONTINUE 1531 C . D READ(7'NH)I0DW 1532 C . D READ(8'NH)DWC 1533 N = NH 1534 C . D N=1 1535 C , 1536 C . . . LOOP START FOR UNALLOCATED HOUSEHOLD 1537 45 ND=IODW(N,1) 1538 C . , . . no dwel1i ng ava i 1 a b l e ? 1539 IF(ND.E0.O)G0T0 50 1540 PJ=DWC(3,N,ND) 1541 IF( IP .NE.1O)G0T0 46 1542 C 1543 C . .. copy to " t r a c e " output 1544 10=10+1 1545 J0( 1 ,IO)=NH 1546 J0(2,I0)=ND 1547 0(I0)=PJ 1548 C . 1549 IF(I0.LT.3)G0T0 46 1550 C 1551 WRITE(6,1O2)((J0(I,J),I=1,2),0(J),u=1,I0) 1552 102 F0RMAT(3(13,16,F11.3,2X)) 1553 10=0 1554 C . 1555 C . . popping household's d w e l l i n g s t a c k 1556 46 DO 4 1 J=1,NMD 1557 IODW(N,J)=IODW(N,J+1) 1558 IF(IOOW(N,J).EQ.O)G0T0 42 1559 41 CONTINUE 1560 C 1561 42 IH=NDW(ND) 1562 C ... i f new: s e l e c t 1563 I F (ND.EO.NMD 1)GOTO 51 1564 C . . . i f b i d p r i c e l e s s than or equal to c u r r e n t 1565 IF(PJ.LE.PDW(ND))GOTO 45 1566 C ... a l l o c a t i n g to a s s i g n e d s t a c k 1567 C .D WRITE(7'NH)I0DW 1568 C .D FIND(7'NX) 1569 C .D FIND(8'NX) 1570 NDW(ND)=NH 1571 PDW(ND)=PJ 1572 51 ISOL(NH,1)=ND 1573 SOL(NH, 1 )=DWC(3,N,ND) 1574 S0L(NH,2)=DWC(1,N,ND) 1575 S0L(NH,3)=DWC(2,N,ND) 1576 C ... DWELLING EMPTY(INCLUDING NEW) 1577 IF(IH.E0.O)G0TO 44 1578 C ... HOUSEHOLD DISPLACED - LOOP INTERNALLY 1579 NH=IH 1580 C .D FIND(7'IH) PROGRAM:F10:5IM02.FORT 1581 C D FIND(8'IH) 1582 GOTO 43 1583 C . . . 1584 C... NO NEW DWELLING 1585 50 ISOL(NH,1)=-1 1586 10=10+1 1587 J0(1,I0)=NH 1588 J0(2,I0)=O 1589 0(I0)=0. 1590 C . . . 1591 44 CONTINUE 1592 C. . . 1593 IF(I0.NE.O)WRITE(6, 102)((JO(I,d),1 = 1, 2 ) , 0 ( J ) , J = 1 , 10 1594 C. . . 1595 C... c a l c u l a t i n g s o l u t i o n s e t . 1596 DO 62 1=1,NHH 1597 IH=I 1598 C D IH=1 1599 ND=IS0L(I,1) 1600 IF(ND.GT.O)GOTO 63 1601 C D READ(8'I)DWC 1602 C. . . 1603 C. . . no dwel1i ng 1604 C... h i g h e s t b i d 1605 ND=1 1606 PJ=DWC(3;IH,1) 1607 DO 66 J=2,NMD 1608 IF(DWC(3,IH,J).LE.PJ)GOTO 66 "1609 ND = J 1610 PJ=DWC(3,IH,J) 1611 66 CONTINUE 1612 C. . . 1613 I SOL(I,1) = -ND 1614 SOL(I,1)=PJ/1000. 1615 SOL(I,2)=DWC(1,IH.ND) 1616 SOL(I,3)=DWC(2,IH,ND) 1617 GOTO 62 1618 63 CONTINUE 1619 C D IF(NS.NE.0)READ(9'I)ISUB 1620 I SOL(I,2) = ISUB(IH,ND) 1621 SOL(I,1)=SOL(I,1)/1000. 1622 SOL(I,2)=S0L(I,2)/10. 1623 IZ=DWD(2,ND) 1624 SOL(I,3)=SOL(I,3)/10.*ZW(IZ) 1625 IF(ND.EO.NMD 1)I SOL(I, 1 )=999 1626 62 CONTINUE 1627 C. . . 1628 RETURN 1629 C. . . 1630 C . . . 1631 ENTRY CL$10(SER) PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 1632 C . . . c a l c u l a t i n g a c t u a l e x t e r n a l i t i e s 1633 C . 1634 DO 21 IZ= 1 , 1 2 1635 DO 21 J= 1 , 2 1636 EXT(2,J,IZ)=EXT(1,J,IZ) 1637 21 EXT( 1 ,J,IZ)=0. 1638 C . 1639 C . 1640 DO 23 1=1,NHH 1641 C . 1642 J=ISOL(I,1) 1643 IF(u.LE.O)G0T0 23 1644 IF(d.E0.999)d=NMD1 1645 IF(IS0L(I,2).E0.99)G0T0 23 1646 IZ=DWD(2,U) 1647 C . 1648 EXT( 1 , 1 , IZ)=EXT( 1 , 1,IZ)+HHD(I, 1)+HHD(I,4) 1649 EXT( 1 , 2,IZ)=EXT(1,2,IZ) + 1 1650 C . 1651 EXT( 1 , 1 , 12) = EXT( 1,1, 12)+HHD(I, 1)+HHD(1,4) 1652 EXT( 1,2, 12) = EXT( 1,2, 12) + 1 1653 23 CONTINUE 1654 C . 1655 c. .. c a l c u l a t i n g r e l a t i v e "wealth" 1656 EXT( 1 , 1 , 12) = EXT( 1 , 1, 12)/EXT(1,2,12) 1657 c. 1658 DO 24 IZ=1,NZ 1659 IF(EXT(1,2,IZ).EQ.O)G0T0 34 1660 EXT( 1 , 1,IZ) = (EXT( 1 , 1,IZ)/EXT(1,2,IZ))/EXT(1,1,12) 1661 GOTO 24 1662 34 EXT( 1 , 1 ,IZ) = 1 . 1663 24 CONTINUE 1664 C . 1665 C . .. c a l c u l a t i n g e r r o r on e x t e r n a l i t i e s 1666 c. 1667 SER=0. 1668 DO 30 IZ=1,NZ 1669 30 SER = SER+(EXT( 1 , 1,IZ)-EXT(2,1,IZ) )**2 1670 c. 1671 SER=S0RT(SER)/(2.*NZ) 1672 RETURN 1673 END 1674 c. 1675 SUBROUTINE OTSDAT 1676 C . .. o utput of the input d a t a . 1677 INTEGER*4 IWR1(10),IWR2(10),IWR3(10) 1678 REAL*4 DAT(8),S0L(120,4),DU1(200) 1679 REALM WR1(10), WR2(10),WR3(10),WR4(10),WR5(10),WR6( 1680 INTEGER*2 IODW(120,120),UAHH(120),ISUB(120,120) 1681 * ,NDW(120),ISOL(120,2) 1682 INTEGER*2 DWC(3,120,120) PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 1683 C0MM0N/BLK8/NDW,IODW,DWC,I SUB,UAHH, I SOL, SOL 1684 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(120,10),HHT(10,6),DWD(3,1 1685 * ,PAR(40),P0L(10,4),EXT(2,2,12),ZW(11),IC1(20),IPOL 1686 COMMON/PARA/AB(15,4,10) 1687 C0MM0N/BLK22/ACT(12,20) 1688 EQUIVALENCE (IC1(1),NZ),(IC1(2),NMD),(IC1(3),NHT),( 1689 * ,(IC1 (5),NMD1),(IC1(8),IOP),(IC1(10),NS) 1690 * ,(PAR(11),RPO),(PAR(12),RPC),(PAR(13),RQM),(PAR(14 1691 * ,(PAR(16),0P0),(PAR(17),OPC),(PAR(18),OQM),(PAR(19 1692 * ,(PAR(20),CPI) 1693 * ,(PAR(21),DAT(1)),(PAR(32) , PPP) 1694 C . . . 1695 EQUIVALENCE (DU1(101),WR1(1)),(DU1(111),WR2(1)),(DU 1696 * ,(DU1 (131),WR4(1)),(DU1(141),WR5(1)),(DU1(151),WR6 1697 * ,(DU1 ( 161),WR7(1)),(DU1(171),IWR1(1)), (DU1 ( 181) , IW 1698 * ,(DU1 (191),IWR3(1)) 1699 * ,(DU1(1),NDW(1)) 1 700 C . . . 1701 ENTRY 0T$1 ' 1702 WRITE(6,101) 1703 101 FORMAT(':'/'1H0USING MARKET SIMULATION PACKAGE'// 1704 *' PROGRAM: "SIMO2.F0RT" : DEVELOPED AT '// 1705 *' UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA : FEB 81 - OCT 81' 1706 RETURN 1707 C . . . 1708 ENTRY 0T$2(NER,IP1) 1709 IF(NER.EQ.2)G0T0 2 1710 C. . . 1711 IF(IP1 .EQ.O)RETURN 1712 WRITE(6,99)TITLE 1713 C. . . 1714 IF(IP1 . EQ. 1 .OR.IP1.EQ. 11)GOTO 34 1715 99 F0RMAT(/2X,6A4/) 1716 C . . . 1717 WRITE(6,114)NHH 1718 114 FORMAT(/' *** INPUT DATA'/ 1719 * /' *** "1CMA" MODEL HOUSEHOLDS:',T40,'number 17 20 * ,14) 1721 IF=0 1722 4 IS=IF+1 1723 IF=IS+9 1724 I F ( I F . GT.NHH)IF = NHH 1725 WRITE(6,115)((I),I=IS,IF) 1726 WRITE(6, 116)(HHD(I,1),I = IS,IF) 1727 WRITE(6,117)(HHD(I,2),I=IS,IF) 1728 CC WRITE(6,151)(HHD(I,5),I = IS, IF) 1729 C . . . CD 1730 IF(NS.EQ.O)GOTO 710 M 1731 WRITE(G,811)(HHD(I,6) , I = IS, IF) -* 1732 WRITE(6,126)(HHD(I,7),I=IS,IF) 1733 WRITE(6,127)(HHD(I,8),I=IS,IF) PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 1734 811 FORMAT(' BASE DATA '/' DWELLING '.1X.10F6.0) 1735 710 IF(IP1 .E0.2)G0T0 34 1736 I F ( I F . LT.NHH)GOTO 4 1737 C . . . 1738 115 FORMAT(/' household ',1016) 1739 116 FORMAT(' income ',2X,10F6.0) 1740 117 FORMAT(' type - ',1X,10F6.0) 174 1 151 FORMAT(' % e q u i t y ',1X,10F6.4) 1742 C . . . 1743 34 WRITE(6,110)NHT 1744 1 10 FORMAT(/' *** "2CMA" HOUSEHOLD TYPE GROUPS: ' ,T40 1745 * ,14) 1746 C . . . 1747 WRITE(6,111)((I),I=1,NHT) 1748 WRITE(6, 112)(HHT(I, 1 ) ,1 = 1 ,NHT) 1749 WRITE(6,112)(HHT(I,2),1=1,NHT) 1750 WRITE(6,112)(HHT(I,3),I=1,NHT) 1751 WRITE(6,112)(HHT(I,4),1=1,NHT) 1752 C . . . 1753 DO 21 L=1,4 1754 WRITE(6,601)L,L 1755 WRITE(6,615)((I),1=1,NHT) 1756 C . . . 1757 WRITE(6,603)(AB(1 ,L,I ) ,1 = 1,NHT) 1758 WRITE(6,604)(AB(2,L,I),I=1,NHT) 1759 WRITE(6,605)(AB(3,L,I),I=1,NHT) 1760 WRITE(6,606)(AB(4,L,I),I=1,NHT) 1761 WRITE(6,607)(AB(5,L,I),I=1,NHT) 1762 WRIT E(6,608)(AB(6,L,I),1 = 1,NHT) 1763 WRIT E(6,609)(AB(7,L,I),1 = 1,NHT) 1764 WRITE(6,610)(AB(8,L,I),I=1,NHT) 1765 WRITE(6,611)(AB(9,L,I),1=1,NHT) 1766 WRITE(6,612)(AB(10,L,I),I = 1 , NHT) 1767 WRITE(6,613)(AB(11,L,I),I=1,NHT) 1768 WRITE(6,614)(AB(12,L,I),I=1,NHT) 1769 WRITE(6,625)(AB(13,L,I),1=1,NHT) 1770 WRITE(6,626)(AB(14,L,I),1=1,NHT) 1771 21 WRITE(6,627)(AB(15,L,I),1=1,NHT) 1772 C . . . 1773 601 FORMAT(/' *** "2', 11,' " DEMAND PARAMETERS 00', 1774 603 FORMATC AO',T9,10F7.4) 1775 604 FORMATC A 1' ,T9 , 10F7.4) 1776 605 FORMATC A2',T9,10F7.4) 1777 606 FORMATC B11',T9,10F7.4) 1778 607 FORMAT(' B12',T9,10F7.4) 1779 608 FORMATC B21',T9,10F7.4) 1780 609 FORMAT(' B22',T9,10F7.4) 1781 610 FORMATC BM1',T9,10F7.4) 1782 611 FORMAT(' BM2',T9,10F7.4) 1783 612 FORMAT(' MXH',T9,10F7.1) 1784 613 FORMATC MXG',T9,10F7.1) PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 1785 614 FORMAT(' MEX',T9,10F7.1) 1786 625 FORMAT(' MPH',T9,10F7.4) 1787 626 FORMAT(' esP',T9,10F7.5) 1788 627 FORMAT(' esY',T9,10F7.5) 1789 615 FORMATC/' TYPE',1017) 1790 C . . . 1791 111 FORMAT(/' TYPE group ',1016) 1792 112 FORMAT(/' income ',2X,10F6.0) 1793 C... 1794 I F ( I P 1.EQ. 1)G0T0 799 1795 IF(IP1 .EO. 11)RETURN 1796 WRITE(6,106)NMD 1797 106 FORMATC/' *** "3CMA" MODEL DWELLINGS:',T40,'number 1798 C. . . 1799 IF=0 1800 3 IS=IF+1 1801 IF=IS+9 1802 I F ( I F . GT.NMD)IF = NMD 1803 WRITE(6,107)((d),d=IS,IF) 1804 WRITE(6,108)(DWD(1,d),d=IS,IF) 1805 WRITE(6,109)(DWD(2,d),d=IS.IF) 1806 WRITE(6,823)(DWD(3,J),d=IS,IF) 1807 I F ( I P 1 .EO.2)G0T0 35 1808 I F( I F . LT.NMD)G0T0 3 1809 C... 1810 107 FORMAT(/' d w e l l i n g ',1016) 1811 108 FORMATC/' s e r v i c e s ',2X,10F6.0) 1812 109 FORMAT(' zone ',1X,10F6.0) 18.13 823 FORMATC ' tenure ',1X,10F6.0) 1814 C... 1815 35 WRITE(6,102)NZ 1816 102 FORMATC/' *** "40 " ZONAL CHARACTERISTICS: ',T40,' 1817 * 12) 0 1818 WRITEC6,103)((I),1=1,NZ) 1819 WR I TE(6,104)(Z0D(1,I),I = 1,NZ) 1820 WRITE(6,105)(Z0D(2,I),I=1,NZ) 1821 C... 1822 103 FORMAT(/' ZONE number',1016) 1823 104 FORMATC/' "wealth" '.2X.10F6.0) 1824 105 FORMATC' d i s t a n c e '.1X.10F6.0) 1825 C. . . 1826 799 WRITE(6,120)(PARC I),1 = 1,4) 1827 120 FORMAT(/' *** "50 " EXTERNALITIES PARAMETERS' 1828 * //' EXT 1 EXT2 ' /' (wealth) ( a c c e s s ) ' / 2 ( 1829 C . . . 1830 IF(IOP .NE. 1)WRITE(6,620)(PAR(I),1=3,4),PAR(7),(PAR( 1831 * ,PAR(8) CD 1832 C. . . M 1833 620 FORMAT(//' *** "50 " SUPPLY PARAMETERS' 0 0 1834 * //T11,'rental',T41,'owners' 1835 * /T2, ' B1' ,T12, 'B2' ,T22, 'OC',T32, 'B1' ,T42, 'B2' ,T52, ' PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 1836 * /F6.3.9F10.3) 1837 C . 1838 C . 1839 WRITE(6, 121 ) RPO,RPC,ROM,OPO,OPC,OQM 1840 121 FORMAT(/' *** "501 " PRICE and MINQ PARAMETERS' 1841 * //T15,'rental',T45,'owners' 1842 * /' RPO RPC ROM OPO OPC 1843 * /F8.2.5F10.2) 1844 c. 1845 WRITE(6,621)CPI 1846 621 FORMAT(/' CPI = '.F10.5) 1847 IF(NS.EQ.O)RETURN 1848 c. 1849 WRITE(6, 160)((I ) ,1 = 1, 10) ,((IPOL(I,K),1 = 1,2),(POL(I, 1850 * ,K=1,4) 1851 160 FORMAT(/' *** 80 POLICY PARAMETERS'// 1852 * ' o p t i o n ' ,10('POL',12,2X)/4(14,' .',I 1,10F7.2/)) 1853 WRITE(6,161)((I),I=1,10),(HHT(I,5),1=1,10) 1854 161 FORMAT(/' ELIGIBILITY BY TYPE:'/1016/1X,10F6.0) 1855 IF(IGIVENC1).NE.0)WRITE(6,162)IGIVEN 1856 162 FORMAT(/' PUBLIC HOUSING: option',14/1016) 1857 IF(PPP.NE.0.0)WRITE(6,163)PPP 1858 163 FORMAT(/' p u r c h a s i n g power a d j u s t o r ' , F 1 0 . 4 ) 1859 IF(PAR(36).NE.0. )WRITE(6, 164) PAR(36) 1860 164 FORMAT(/' p r i c e e l a s t i c i t y a d j u s t o r ' , F 1 0 . 4 ) 1861 C . 1862 RETURN 1863 C . 1864 C . INPUT ERROR 1865 2 WRITE(6,129) 1866 129 FORMAT(/' *** ERROR i n input data stopped e x e c u t i o n 1867 STOP 1868 C . 1869 ENTRY 0T$3(IP1) 1870 c. 1871 WRITE(6,99)TITLE 1872 IF(IP1 .LE. ORETURN 1873 c. 1874 WRITE(6,122) 1875 122 FORMAT(/' *** HOUSEHOLD CHARACTERISTICS:') 1876 c. 1877 IF=0 1878 5 IS=IF+1 1879 IF=IS+9 1880 I F ( I F . GT.NHH)IF = NHH 1881 c. 1882 WRITE(6,115)((I),I=IS,IF) 1883 WRITE(6,118)(HHD(I,1),I=IS,IF) 1884 WRITE(6,1119)(HHD(I,9),I=IS,IF) 1885 WRITE(6,119)(HHD(I,10),I=IS,IF) 1886 IF(IP1.EO.2)G0T0 36 PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 1887 IF( I F . LT.NHH)GOTO 5 1888 C 1889 1 18 FORMAT(' "Y":input ', 1X,10F6.0) 1890 1 19 FORMAT(' "Y" t a c t u a l ' . 1X,10F6.0) 1891 1119 FORMATC Share 1X,10F6.4) 1892 36 WRITE(6, 123)TITLE 1893 123 FORMAT('1'/' *** PRICE , QUANTITY and " p a r t i a l 1894 C 1895 DO 6 1 = 1 ,NHH 1896 IH=I 1897 C . D IH= 1 1898 WRITE(6,124)1 1899 124 FORMAT(/' (Household', 13, ' ) ' ) 1900 C . D READ(8'I)DWC 1901 C .D IF(NS.NE.0)READ(9'I)ISUB 1902 C 1903 IF=0 1904 7 IS=IF+1 1905 IF=IS+9 1906 I F (I F.GT.NMD 1)IF =NMD 1 1907 K=0 1908 DO 60 d = IS,IF 1909 K = K+1 1910 WR1(K)=DWC(3,I,d)/1000 1911 WR2(K)=DWC(1,I,d)/10. 1912 60 WR3(K)=DWC(2,I,d)/1000 1913 C 1914 WRITE(6,125)((d),d=IS,IF) 1915 WRITE(6,126)(WR1(d),d= 1 ,K) 1916 WRITE(6,127)(WR2(d),d= 1,K) 1917 WRITE(6,128)(WR3(d),J= 1,K) 1918 IF(NS.NE.0)WRITE(6, 147)(I SUB(IH,d),d=IS,IF) 1919 I F (IP1.EO.2.AND.IF.GE. 20)RETURN 1920 IF(IF.LT.NMD1)G0T0 7 1921 C 1922 125 FORMAT(/' DWELLING ,1016) 1923 126 FORMAT(/' p r i c e , 1X,10F6.3) 1924 127 FORMAT(' q u a n t i t y ', 1X,10F6.1) 1925 128 FORMAT(' p a r t i a l " U " ' , 1X,10F6.4) 1926 139 FORMAT(' u t i 1 i t y 1X,10F6.0) 1927 146 FORMATC "P"*"0" 1X, 10F6. 1) 1928 147 FORMATC SUBSIDY'/' :type',5X,1016) 1929 148 FORMATC : AMOUNT ,10F6.0) 1930 6 CONTINUE 1931 RETURN 1932 C 1933 ENTRY 0T$4(IP1) 1934 WRITE(6,138)TITLE 1935 138 FORMAT('0'/' *** "TOTAL" UTILITY: ',6A4) 1936 C 1937 DO 20 1=1,NHH PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 1938 C . D READ(8'I)DWC 1939 WRITE(6,124)1 1940 C . 1941 IF=0 1942 27 IS=IF+1 1943 IF=IS+9 1944 IF(IF.GT.NMD1)IF=NMD1 1945 K=0 1946 DO 61 d = IS,IF 1947 K = K+ 1 1948 IZ=DWD(2,d) 1949 61 WR1(K)=DWC(2,I,J) *ZW(IZ) 1950 c. 1951 WRITE(6,125)((d),d=IS,IF) 1952 WRITE(6,139)(WR1(d),d=1,K) 1953 IF.( IP1 . EQ. 2. AND . I F . GE . 20) RETURN 1954 32 I F ( I F . LT.NMD1)GOTO 27 1955 20 CONTINUE 1956 RETURN 1957 c. 1958 c. 1959 ENTRY 0T$4A(IP1) 1960 c. .. s o r t e d s t a c k s output 1961 WRITE(6,131)(UAHH(I),1=1,NHH) 1962 131 FORMAT(/' *** ORDERED HOUSEHOLD STACK'// 1963 * 8(1X, 1514/) ) 1964 WRITE(6,132) 1965 132 FORMAT(//' *** HOUSEHOLD''s "ordered" d w e l l i n g STAC 1966 c. 1967 DO 38 1=1,NHH 1968 c. D READ(7'I)IODW 1969 38 WRITE(6, 133)1,(IODW(I,d),d=1,NMD 1) 1970 133 FORMAT(/' househo1d',14//8(1X, 1 514/)) 197 1 RETURN 1972 c. 1973 C . 1974 ENTRY 0T$5 1975 c. .. a l l o c a t i o n e d d w e l l i n g s - h o u s e h o l d s output 1976 WRITE(6,134) 1977 134 FORMATC1'/' *** ALLOCATION of HOUSEHOLDS'/' e x i s t i 1978 c. 1979 IF=0 1980 9 IS=IF+1 1981 IF=IS+9 1982 I F (IF.GT.NMD)IF = NMD 1983 K=0 1984 DO 10 d=IS,IF 1985 K = K+1 1986 WR 1 (K ) =0. 1987 WR2(K)=0. 1988 WR3(K)=0. PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 1989 WR4(K)=0. 1990 WR5(K)=0. 1991 WR6(K)=0. 1992 WR7(K)=0. 1993 IWR1(K)=0 1994 IWR2(K)=0 1995 C . . . 1996 DO 70 1=1,NHH 1997 IF(ISOL(I,1).EQ.d)G0T0 71 1998 70 CONTINUE 1999 GOTO 10 2000 C . . . 2001 71 IWR1(K)=I 2002 WR1(K ) =HHD(1,2) 2003 WR2(K)=S0L(I,2). 2004 WR3(K)=S0L(I,3) 2005 WR4(K ) =DWD(2,J) 2006 WR5(K)=S0L(I, 1 )*SOL(I,2) 2007 WR6(K ) = SOL(I, 1) 2008 C... CALCULATE SUBSIDY 2009 IF(NS.EQ.O)GOTO 10 2010 IWR2(K)=IS0L(I,2) 2011 WR7(K ) =SOL(1,4) 2012 10 CONTINUE 2013 C . . . 2014 WRITE(6, 125) ( ( J) ,<J=IS, IF ) 2015 WRITE(6,109)(WR4(J),J=1,K) 2016 WRITE(6,115)(IWR1(J),d=1,K) 2017 WRITE(6,117)(WR1(d),d=1,K) 2018 WRITE(6,139)(WR3(d),d=1,K) 2019 WRITE(6,126)(WR6(d),d=1,K) 2020 WRITE(6,127)(WR2(d),d=1,K) 2021 WRITE(6,146)(WR5(d),d=1,K) 2022 C... OUTPUT SUBSIDY 2023 IF(NS.EQ.O)GOTO 44 2024 WRITE(6,147)(IWR2(d),d=1,K) 2025 WRITE(6,148)(WR7(d),d=1,K) 2026 C. . . 2027 44 I F ( I F . LT.NMD)GOTO 9 2028 C . . . 2029 C... new d w e l l i n g s a l l o c a t e d 2030 37 WRITE(6,135) 2031 135 FORMATCO'/' *** ALLOCATION OF HOUSEHOLDS'/ 2032 C . . . 2033 1=0 2034 11 IS=I+1 2035 d=0 2036 DO 12 I=IS,NHH 2037 IF(ISOL(I,1).NE.999)GOTO 12 2038 d=d+1 2039 IWR1(d)=I NEW DW CD r o -o. PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 2040 WR 1 ( J ) =HHD(1,2) 2041 WR2(d)=S0L(I,2) 2042 WR3(d)=SDL(I, 1 )*SOL(I,2) 2043 WR4(d)=S0L(I,3) 2044 WR5(J)= SOL ( I , 1 ) 2045 C... SUBSIDY 2046 IF(NS.EQ.O)G0T0 41 2047 IWR2(d) = I SOL(1,2) 2048 WR6(d)=S0L(I,4) 2049 41 IF(J.EO.1O)G0T0 14 2050 12 CONTINUE 2051 IF( IF.EQ.O.AND.d.EQ.O)G0T0 13 2052 IF(d.NE.0)G0T0 14 2053 WRITE(6,144) 2054 144 FORMAT(/' NO NEW DWELLINGS CREATED') 2055 GOTO 13 2056 C. . . 2057 14 IF=0 2058 WRITE(6,115)(IWR1(K),K=1 , d) 2059 WRITE(6,117) (WR1(K),K=1,d) 2060 WRITE(6,139) (WR4(K),K=1,d) 2061 WRITE(6,126) (WR5(K),K=1,d) 2062 WRITE(6,127) (WR2(K),K=1,J) 2063 WRITE(6,146) (WR3(K),K=1,d) 2064 C... OUTPUT SUBSIDY 2065 IF(NS.EQ.O)G0T0 42 2066 WRITE(6,147)(IWR2(K),K= 1 ,d) 2067 WRITE(6,148)(WR6(K),K=1,d) 2068 42 I F ( I . LT.NHH)GOTO 11 2069 C . . . 2070 13 CONTINUE 2071 C . . . 2072 C... NO d w e l l i n g a l l o c a t e d to household 2073 C . . . 2074 DO 24 I=1,NHH 2075 IF(ISOL(I,1).LE.O)GOTO 15 2076 24 CONTINUE 2077 RETURN 2078 C . . . 2079 15 WRITE(6,136) 2080 136 FORMAT(//' * **ALLOCATION OF HOUSEHOLDS'/' NO DWELLI 2081 C... 2082 1=0 2083 17 IS=I+1 2084 d=0 2085 DO 18 I=IS,NHH 2086 I F ( I S O L U , 1 ) .GT.O)G0T0 18 2087 d=d+1 ro 2088 C. . . I\J 2089 IWR1(d)=I CD 2090 WR1(d ) =HHD(1,2) PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 2091 WR2(d)=S0L(I , 1 ) 2092 IWR2( d ) = -1 SOL (I , 1 ) 2093 C 2094 IF(J.EO.10)G0T0 19 2095 18 CONTINUE 2096 IF(J.EQ.O)GOTO 16 2097 C 2098 19 WRITE(6,115)(IWR1(K),K=1,d) 2099 WRITE(6,117) (WR1(K),K=1,d) 2100 WRITE(6,125)(IWR2(K),K=1,d) 2101 WRITE(6,137) (WR2(K),K=1,d) 2102 C 2103 137 FORMATC HIGHEST BID' , 10F6.3) 2 104 C 2105 IF(I.LT.NHH)G0T0 17 2106 C 2107 16 CONTINUE 2108 C 2109 RETURN 21 10 C 2111 ENTRY 0T$10(SER) 2112 C output "expected" and a c t u a l e x t e r n a l i t i e s . 2113 C 21 14 WRITE(6,140) 2115 140 FORMATCO'/' *** "ACTUAL" AND "EXPECTED" EXTERNALIT 2116 */T15, ' "ACTUAL" ' ,T30, ' "EXPECTED"'/ 2117 */' zone',2(' r e l a t i v e ') 21 18 */3X, 2(4X,'wealth u n i t s ' ) / ) 2119 C 2120 WRITE (6, 141 )( I , ( ( E X T U . K , I) ,K=1 ,2) ,L=1 ,2) ,1 = 1 , NZ ) 2121 141 FORMAT(20(14,2(F9.4,F8.0.3X)/)) 2122 WRITE(6,142) SER 2123 142 FORMAT(' Root-Mean-Squared-Error:',F10.4) 2124 RETURN 2125 END 2126 C 2127 SUBROUTINE 0T$DT2 2128 C 2129 REAL*8 READ(8) 2130 INTEGER*4 IWR1(10),IWR2(10),IWR3(10) 2131 REALM DAT(8),SOL(120,4),DU1(200) 2132 REALM WR1(10),WR2(10),WR3(10),WR4(10),WR5(10),WR6( 2133 INTEGER*2 IODW(120,120),UAHH(120),ISUB(120,120) 2134 * ,NDW(120),ISOL(120,2) 2135 INTEGER*2 DWC(3,120,120) 2136 C0MM0N/BLK8/NDW,IODW,DWC,I SUB,UAHH,I SOL,SOL 2137 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(120,10),HHT(10,6),DWD(3,1 2138 * ,PAR(40),POL(10,4),EXT(2,2,12),ZW(11),IC1(20),IPOL 2139 C 2140 EQUIVALENCE (IC1(4),NHH) 2141 ENTRY 0T$7 r o PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 2 142 C. . . 2143 C... output of POLICY data s e t 2144 C. . . 2145 WRITE(1,800)TITLE 2146 800 FORMAT('OOOOPOLICY ',6A4) 2147 C . . . 2148 DO 899 I = 1 , 20 2149 I F ( I .GE . 1 .AND.I.LE.8)WRITE(1,801)I,PAR( I) 2150 I F ( I . GE . 1 1 .AND.I.LE. 12)WRITE(1,801)I.PAR (I ) 2151 IF(I.GE.16.AND.I.LE. 17)WRITE(1,801)I , PAR( I ) 2152 IF(I.EO.13.OR.I.EO.18)WRITE(1,802)1,PAR(I) 2153 899 IF(I.EO.20)WRITE(1,801)I,PAR(I) 2154 C. . 2155 801 F0RMAT('50' ,12,F5.3) 2156 802 FORMAT('50' ,I 2,F5. 1) 2157 C . . . 2158 DO 898 1=1,NHH 2159 C . . . 2160 u=IS0L(I,1) 2161 WR 1 ( 1 ) = SOL(1,1) 2162 WR1(2)=S0L(I,2) 2163 WR1(3)=SOL(1,3) 2164 IF(U.GT.0)G0T0 893 2165 u=0 2166 WR1(1)=0.0 2167 WR1(2)=0.0 2168 WR1(3)=0.0 2169 C. . . 2170 893 IWR1(1) = IFIX(HHD(I, 1 ) +. 1 ) 2171 IWR1(2)=IFIX(HHD(I,2)+.1) 2172 IWR1(3)=IFIX(HHD(I,3)+.1) 2173 IWR1(4)=IFIX(HHD(I,4)+.1) 2174 C. . . 2175 IF(WR1(3).GE.1000)GOTO 889 2176 IF(WR1 (2).LT. 1000. )WRITE(1,803) 2177 * I,(IWR1(K),K=1,4),d,WR1(1),WR1(2) , WR1 (3) 2178 IF(WR1(2).GE. 1000. ) WRITE!! 1,804) 2179 * I,(IWR1(K),K=1,4),J.WR1(1),WR1(2),WR1 (3) 2180 GOTO 898 2181 C... 2182 889 IF(WR1(2).LT.1000.)WRITE(1,807) 2183 * 1,(1 WR 1(K),K=1,4),d,WR1(1),WR1(2), WR 1(3) 2184 IF(WR1 (2).GE. 1000. ) WRITE!. 1,808) 2185 * I,(IWR1(K),K=1,4),J.WR1(1),WR1(2),WR1(3) 2186 803 FORMAT( ' 1 ' , I3.4I5.5X,I5.F5.3,F5. 1,F5. 1) 2187 804 FORMAT('1',13,415,5X,15,F5.3,F5.0,F5.1) 2188 807 FORMATC1',I3,4I5,5X,I5,F5.3,F5.1,F5.0) 2189 808 FORMATC1' ,13,415,5X,15,F5.3,F5.0,F5.0) 2190 C. . . 2191 898 CONTINUE 2192 C . . . CO LO O PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 2193 REWIND 4 2194 C . 2195 DO 810 1=1,1000 2196 READ(4,811,END=99)II.READ 2197 81 1 F0RMAT(I2,8A8) 2198 I F ( I I .LT.20.OR.II.GE.50)GOTO 810 2199 WRITE( 1,811)11.READ 2200 810 CONTINUE 2201 C . 2202 99 RETURN 2203 END 2204 C . 2205 SUBROUTINE CALBRT 2206 C . r o u t i n e to c a l c u l a t e and p r i n t c a l i b r a t i o n s t a t i s t i c 2207 INTEGER*2 IS0L(12O,2) 2208 REALM ERR(15,2),CAL(15,20),SOL(120,4),TERR(15,2,2) 2209 C0MM0N/BLK8/DU1(36120),ISOL,SOL 2210 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(120,10),HHT(10,6),DWD(3,1 221 1 * ,PAR(40),POL(10,4),EXT(2,2,12),ZW(11),IC1(20) 2212 C0MM0N/BLK22/ACT(12,20) 2213 EQUIVALENCE ( IC1 ( 1),NZ),(IC1(2),NMD),(IC1(3),NHT),( 2214 * ,(IC1(5),NMD1),(IC1(7),IP1),(IC1(8),I0P) 2215 * ,(DU1(1 ) ,CAL( 1 , 1)),(DU1(201 ) ,ERR(1, 1 ) ) 2216 C . 2217 ENTRY 0T$CAL 2218 C . 2219 WRITE(6,200) 2220 WRITE(6,102) 2221 NZC=NZ 2222 IF(I0P.EQ.2)NZC=2*NZ 2223 C . 2224 DO 20 IZ=1,NZC 2225 20 WRITE(6,110) IZ,(ACT(K,IZ) ,K=1 , 12) 2226 1 10 FORMAT(' zone',I3,F8.2,8F5.2,F7.0,F6.2,F6.1) 2227 C . 2228 RETURN 2229 C . 2230 ENTRY CL$20(IC) 2231 C . 2232 NZ1=NZ+1 2233 IF(IOP . EQ.2)NZ1=2*(NZ+1) 2234 NZC=NZ 2235 IF(I0P.EQ.2)NZC=2*NZ 2236 C 2237 DO 1 d=1,20 2238 DO 1 1=1,15 2239 1 CAL(I,d)=0. 2240 C 2241 C a g g r e g a t i n g d a t a on e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s . 2242 C 2243 DO 2 J=1,NMD PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 2244 C . 2245 IZ=DWD(2,d) 2246 C . 2247 IT=DWD(3,J) 2248 IF(IOP . EO.2)IZ=IZ+NZ*(IT-1) 2249 IZ1=NZ1 2250 IF(IOP.EQ.2)IZ1=NZC+IT 2251 DO 15 1=1,NHH 2252 IF(ISOL(I,1).EQ.d)GOTO 16 2253 15 CONTINUE 2254 GOTO 3 2255 C . 2256 C . • • p q 2257 16 CAL( 1,IZ)=CAL( 1 , IZ ) + SOL(1,1) *SOL(I, ,2) 2258 CAL( 1 , IZ1 )=CAL(1,IZ1) + SOL(I, 1) *SOL(I. ,2) 2259 C . . . i ncome 2260 CAL(10,IZ)=CAL(10,IZ)+HHD(I , 1) +HHD(I,4) 2261 CAL(10,IZ1)=CAL(10,IZ1)+HHD( I , 1 )+HHD(1,4) 2262 C . . . ut i 1 i s a t i on 2263 CAL( 1 1 , IZ)=CAL(11,IZ)+1 2264 CAL( 1 1 , IZ1)=CAL(11,IZ1) + 1 2265 C . • • q 2266 CAL( 12,IZ)=CAL(12,IZ) + S0L(I,2) 2267 CAL( 12,IZ1)=CAL(12,IZ1) + S0L(I, 2) 2268 C . ..# hho l d s 2269 CAL( 13,IZ)=CAL(13,IZ) + 1 2270 CALC 13,IZ1)=CAL(13,IZ1) + 1 2271 ' C . . .' # ex i s t dwel1i ng at s t a r t 2272 3 CALC 14,IZ)=CALC14,IZ)+1 2273 CAL( 14,IZ1)=CAL(14,IZ1) + 1 2274 C . 2275 2 CONTINUE 2276 C . 2277 C . .. a g g r e g a t i n g by new 2278 DO 4 1=1,NHH 2279 IZ = NZ 2280 K=IFIX(ABS(HHDCI,2))) 2281 IT= 1 2282 IF(K.GT.5)IT=2 2283 IFCIP1.GT.5 )IT=K 2284 IF(IOP . EQ.2)IZ = IZ+NZ*(IT-1) 2285 IZ1=NZ1 2286 IF(IOP . EQ.2)IZ1=NZC+IT 2287 C . 2288 IF(ISOL(I,1).NE.999)GOTO 4 2289 C . • • p-q 2290 CAL( 1,IZ)=CAL( 1 , IZ) + SOL(I,1) *SOL(I ,2) 2291 CALC 1 , IZ1)=CAL(1,IZ1) + SOL(I, 1) *SOL(I .2) 2292 C . . . i ncome 2293 CALC10,IZ)=CAL(10,IZ)+HHD(I , 1) 2294 CAL(10,IZ1)=CAL(10,IZ1)+HHD(I , 1) CD OJ M PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 2295 C . ut i 1 i s a t i on 2296 CAl_( 1 1 , IZ)=CAL( 1 1 , IZ)+1 2297 CAL( 1 1 ,IZ1)=CAL(11,IZ1) + 1 2298 CAL( 14,IZ)=CAL(14,IZ)+1 2299 CAL( 14,IZ1)=CAL(14,IZ1) + 1 2300 C . . . q 2301 CAL( 12,IZ)=CAL(12,IZ) + S0L(I,2) 2302 CAL( 12,IZ1)=CAL(12,IZ1) + SOL(I,2) 2303 C . ..H h h o l d s 2304 CAL( 13, IZ)=CAL(13,IZ) + 1 2305 CAL( 13,IZ1)=CAL(13,IZ1)+1 2306 C . 2307 4 CONTINUE 2308 C . 2309 C . .. c a l c u l a t i n g zonal and t o t a l averages 2310 C . 231 1 DO 5 IZ=1,NZ1 2312 C . . . p 2313 IF(CAL(12,IZ).NE,0)CAL(1,IZ)=CAL(1,IZ)/CAL ( 12 , IZ) 2314 C . 2315 IF(CAL(13,IZ).E0.O)G0T0 7 2316 C . 2317 C . 2318 C . . . i ncome 2319 CAL( 10,IZ)=CAL(10,IZ)/CAL(13, IZ) 2320 C . • • q 2321 CAL( 12,IZ)=CAL(12,IZ)/CAL(13, IZ) 2322 C . 2323 C . ut i 1 i z a t i on 2324 7 IF(CAL(14,IZ).NE.0)CAL(11,IZ)=CAL(11,IZ)/CAL(14,IZ) 2325 C . 2326 5 CONTINUE 2327 C . 2328 C . .. c a l c u l a t i n g c a l i b r a t i o n "mean e r r o r " 2329 C . 2330 IF(I0P.EQ.2)G0T0 51 2331 C . 2332 DO 9 K=1,12 2333 9 ERR(K,1)=0. 2334 C . 2335 DO 10 IZ=1,NZC 2336 DO 10 K=1,12 2337 10 ERR(K, 1 ) = ERR(K, 1 ) + (CAL(K,IZ)-ACT(K,IZ))**2 2338 C . 2339 IZ = NZ 2340 IF(ACT(1,NZ).EQ.0)IZ=NZ-1 2341 C . 2342 DO 1 1 K=1, 12 2343 11 ERR(K,1)=SQRT(ERR(K,1))/(2.*IZ). 2344 C . 2345 DO 12 K=1,12 PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 2346 C . 2347 ERR(K,2)=0. 2348 IF(CAL(K,NZ1).EO.O)GOTO 12 2349 C . 2350 ERR(K , 2 ) = ERR(K,1)/CAL(K,NZ1) 2351 12 CONTINUE 2352 C . 2353 SER=0. 2354 cc=o. 2355 C . 2356 DO 14 K=1,12 2357 IF(K.GE.2.AND.K.LE.9)G0T0 14 2358 IF(ERR(K,2).E0.O)G0T0 14 2359 SER=SER+ERR(K,2) 2360 CC = CC+1 . 2361 14 CONTINUE 2362 C . 2363 SER=SER/CC 2364 ~ C . 2365 GOTO 60 2366 C . 2367 C . . . UNDER OPTION 2 2368 51 DO 52 IT=1,2 2369 DO 52 K=1,12 2370 52 TERR(K,1,IT)=0. 2371 C . 2372 DO 53 IZ=1,NZC 2373 DO 53 K=1,12 2374 IT= 1 2375 IF(IZ.GT.NZ)IT=2 2376 53 TERR(K , 1 ,IT)=TERR(K, 1 , IT ) + (CAL(K,IZ)-ACT(K,IZ))**2 2377 C . 2378 IZ = NZ 2379 IF(ACT( 1 ,NZ).EQ.0)IZ=NZ-1 2380 DO 54 IT=1,2 2381 DO 54 K=1,12 2382 54 TERR(K,1,IT)=SQRT(TERR(K,1,IT))/(2.* IZ) 2383 C . 2384 DO 55 IT=1,2 2385 SER=0. 2386 CC=0. 2387 IZ1=2*NZ+IT 2388 C . 2389 DO 56 K=1,12 2390 TERR(K,2,IT)=0. 2391 56 IF(CAL(K,IZ1).NE.0. )TERR(K,2,IT)=TERR(K, 1, IT)/CAL(K 2392 C . 2393 DO 57 K=1,12 2394 IF(K.GE.2.AND.K.LE.9)G0T0 57 2395 IF(TERR(K,2,IT).EQ.O.)GOTO 57 2396 SER=SER+TERR(K,2,IT) PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 2397 CC=CC+1 2398 57 CONTINUE 2399 TSER(IT)=0. 2400 C . 2401 55 IF(CC.NE.1.)TSER(IT)=SER/CC 2402 C . 2403 C . output of c a l i b r a t i o n t e s t 2404 C . 2405 60 WRITE(6,100)TITLE 2406 200 FORMAT(/' *** "70 " CALIBRATION DATA:'/) 2407 100 FORMAT('1*** CALIBRATION output: ',6A4) 2408 WRITE(6,101)(PAR(I),1=1,6) 2409 WRITE(6,102) 2410 C . 241 1 101 FORMAT(/' *** AVERAGE " a c t u a l " and " s o l u t i o n " ZONAL 2412 * ' CHARACTERISTICS' 24 13 *//' : EXT1',F6.2,' : EXT2 ' ,F6.2, ' :B1R',F6.2,' :B2R' 2414 * ,F6.2,' :B20',F6.2) 2415 102 F0RMAT(/T12,'price', T57,'income usage "0"' 2416 C . 2417 WRITE(6,103)(IZ,ACT( 1 ,IZ),(ACT(K,IZ),K=10, 12) ,CAL( 1 2418 * ,(CAL(K,IZ),K=10, 12) . IZ= 1 ,NZC) 2419 C . 2420 103 FORMATC (zone',13, ' ) ' / ' actua1 ' ,F6.2,40X,F8.0,F6. 2421 * /' c a l c . ',F6.2,40X,F8.0,F6. 2422 C . 2423 WRITE(6,104) 2424 104 FORMAT(/' *** CALIBRATION ERRORS') 2425 C . 2426 WRITE(6,102) 2427 IF(IOP.EQ.1)WRITE(6,105)(ERR(1,L),(ERR(K.L),K=10,12 2428 IF(IOP . E0.2)WRITE(6, 105)((TERR(1,L,IT),(TERR(K,L,IT 2429 * ,L= 1 ,2),TSER(IT),IT=1,2) 2430 C . 2431 105 FORMAT(' R.M.S.E. ',F5.4,40X,F8.1,F6.3,F6.1 2432 * //' R.M.S.E. ',F5.4,40X,F7.4,F6.3,F6.3 2433 * /' ( w e i g h t e d ) ' 2434 * //10X,'MEAN ERRORS',F10.4) 2435 C . 2436 RETURN 2437 END 2438 C . 2439 C . THIS ROUTINE SOLVES FOR P WHEN HOUSEHOLD CONSTRAINED 2440 C . 2441 SUBROUTINE OCON 2442 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(120,10),HHT(10,6) , DWD( 3 , 1 2443 * ,PAR(40),POL(10,4),EXT(2,2, 12),ZW(11),IC1(20),I POL 2444 COMMON/PARA/AB(15,4,10),SPP(10),DPP(15) 2445 C . 2446 EQUIVALENCE (IC1(1),NZ ) ,(IC1(7),IP1) 2447 C . PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 2448 ENTRY PQMQKK,SHARE, AY,QM.PB, IT) 2449 UHS=0. 2450 C . 2451 UX=0. 2452 UA=0. 2453 RETURN 2454 C . 2455 ENTRY PONO(IP,IS1,L,PX,QX,U,SUBA,PH,QH,UH) 245S C . 2457 I F ( I P 1 .EO.10)WRITE(6,1999)PH,OH,UH 2458 c. 2459 U = - 1 . 2460 QX=POL(IT,L) 2461 IF(QX.LT.QM)GOTO 9 2462 IF(OH.GE.OX)RETURN 2463 c. 2464 PX = PB 2465 BY = AY 2466 XSHARE = SHARE+DPP(14)*ALOG(PX/DPP( 13)) 2467 c. 2468 GOTO( 1 ,1,3,4,5,6,3),IS1 2469 c. 2470 c. .. INCOME AND IN-KIND SUBSIDY 2471 1 DO 21 N=1,50 2472 Y=PX*OX/XSHARE 2473 SUBA=Y-AY 2474 c. 2475 I F (IS 1 . EQ . 2 . AND . SUBA . GT . PX*QX ) SUBA = PX*0X 2476 IF(IP1 .EO. 10)WRITE(6,999)AY,SUBA,XSHARE,Y,BY 2477 999 FORMATC -'.5F12.5) 2478 IF(SUBA.LT.0.)GOTO 41 2479 Y=AY+SUBA 2480 C . 2481 IF(ABS(Y-BY).LT,O.O5)G0T0 10 2482 c. 2483 BY = Y 2484 CALL PARA1(K,Y,XSHARE,DPP) 2485 c. 2486 XSHARE = XSHARE+DPP(14)*AL0G(PX/DPP( 13)) 2487 c. 2488 21 CONTINUE 2489 GOTO 10 2490 c. 2491 41 U = -1 . 2492 SUBA=0. 2493 GOTO 9 2494 C . 2495 c. .. DIRECT CONSTRAINED 2496 c. . . . SOLVE FOR U=UH AT QX 2497 3 IF(UH.EQ.O.)RETURN 2498 CALL PQDCI(1,K,UH,QH,PX,QX,AY,NZ) PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 2499 PA=((AY/OX)-0.01)*PX/DPP(13) 2500 IF(PA.GT.PX)PA=PX 2501 CALL PQDC(PA,PJ,Y.SUBA,IS1,&71) 2502 C... 2503 IF(PJ.EO.O.)RETURN 2504 C... 2505 U=UH+0.00001 2506 GOTO 9 2507 C . . . 2508 71 SUBA=(PX-PJ)*QX 2509 Y = AY + SUBA 2510 CALL PARA1(K,Y,XSHARE,DPP) 2511 PP=Pu*DPP(13)/PX 2512 SUBA=SUBA+(PX-PP)*(QX-OH) 2513 Y=AY+SUBA 2514 CALL PARA1(K,Y,XSHARE,DPP) 2515 CALL CL$UT(U,UHS,UA,PP,QX,Y,NZ) 2516 IF(U.LE.O-) U=-1. 2517 GOTO 9 2518 C... 2519 C... DIRECT QUANTITY 2520 4 I F (QH.EQ.O.)RETURN 2521 SUBA=(QX-QH)*PB 2522 Y=AY+SUBA 2523 GOTO 10 2524 C... 2525 C... DIRECT EXPENDITURE 2526 5 IF(QH.EQ.O.)RETURN 2527 SUBA=(QX-QH)*PB 2528 Y=AY+SUBA 2529 GOTO 10 2530 C... 2531 C... DIRECT PRICE SUBSIDY 2532 6 DO 26 N=1 , 50 2533 A=(XSHARE*AY)/(PX*QX) 2534 PJ=A*PX 2535 SUBA=(1.-A)*PX*QX 2536 Y=AY+SUBA 2537 C... 2538 IF(ABS(Y-BY).LT.0.05)GOTO 10 2539 IF(IP1.EQ. 10)WRITE(6,999)A,SUBA,XSHARE , Y , BY 2540 IF(A.LT.O..OR.A.GE.1.)GOTO 27 2541 C . . . 2542 BY=Y 2543 CALL PARA 1(K,Y,XSHARE,DPP) 2544 C . . . 2545 XSHARE=XSHARE+DPP(14)*ALOG(PJ/DPP(13)) 2546 C . . . 2547 PP=PJ*DPP(13)/PB 2548 CALL CL$UT(U,UHS,UA,PP,QX,Y,NZ) 2549 26 CONTINUE CD PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 2550 GOTO 10 2551 C . 2552 27 SUBA=0. 2553 U=-1 . 2554 GOTO 9 2555 C . 2556 10 CALL CL$UT(U,UHS,UA,DPP(13),QX, Y.NZ) 2557 C . 2558 9 IF(IP1 .EO.10)WRITE(6,1000)IP,PX,OX,Y,U,UHS,UA,XSHAR 2559 C . 2560 IF(U . LE.0. )QX=0. 2561 RETURN 2562 C . 2563 C . .. PRICE, QUANTITY AND UTILITY- EXISTING DWELLINGS 2564 C . 2565 ENTRY PQEQ(IP,IS1,L,d,PX,QX,U,SUBA,PH,QH,UH) 2566 C . 2567 IF(IP1 .EQ. 10)WRITE(6,1999)PH,QH,UH 2568 C . 2569 U = -1. 2570 QX=P0L(IT,L) 2571 IF(QH.GE.QX)RETURN 2572 C . 2573 QI=DWD(1,J) 2574 IZ=IFIX(DWD(2,d)) 2575 C . 2576 PM=SPP(3) 2577 B1=SPP(5) 2578 B2=SPP(6) 2579 0C=SPP(7) 2580 C . 2581 C . .. SOLVE FOR PX FOR QX ON SUPPLY 2582 C . 2583 IF(QX . LE. B 1 *QI)RETURN 2584 PX=((QX/QI-B1)*PM/B2) +0C 2585 C . 2586 BY = AY 2587 XSHARE=SHARE+DPP(14)*ALOG(PX/DPP(13)) 2588 C . 2589 GOTO(11,11,13,14,15,16,13),IS1 2590 C . 2591 C . .. INCOME AND INKIND SUBSIDY 2592 C . 2593 11 DO 31 N=1,50 2594 D=XSHARE/PX 2595 Y=QX/D 2596 SUBA=Y-AY 2597 C . 2598 IF( IS 1 . EQ.2.AND.SUBA.GT.PX*QX)SUBA = PX*QX 2599 IF(SUBA.LT.O.)GOTO 42 2600 Y = AY + SUBA .co PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 2805 56 B=0.5*(C+B) 2806 C . 2807 C . HAVE COMPLETED COMPUTATION FOR NEW ITERATE B 2808 C . 2809 57 CALL FQ(FB,B,Y,SUBA) 2810 IF(FB.EQ.O.O)G0T0 59 281 1 IF(FB.EQ.-1.E5)G0T0 62 2812 K0UNT=K0UNT+1 2813 IF(SIGN(1.0,FB).NE.SIGN(1.0,FC))G0T0 51 2814 C = A 2815 FC = F A 28 16 GOTO 51 2817 C . 2818 C . FINISHED SET I FLAG 2819 C . 2820 58 IF(SIGN(1.0,FB).EQ.SIGN(1.0,FC))GOTO 61 2821 IF(ABS(FB).GT.FX)GOTO 60 2822 PJ = B 2823 RETURN 2824 59 PJ = B 2825 RETURN 2826 60 PJ = B 2827 RETURN 2828 61 PJ=0. 2829 IF(IS0.EQ.3)RETURN 2830 Pd = B 2831 RETURN 1 2832 62 PJ=0. 2833 RETURN 2834 C . 2835 END 2836 C . ROUTINE CALCULATES THE SUBSIDY PROF ILE,AMOUNTS AND I 2837 SUBROUTINE POLICY 2838 INTEGER*4 IWR1(10) 2839 REAL*4 MEANS,MEDNS,DIFF(10,5),DIFF1(7),MER(5) 2840 * ,SUBP(2,4,13),YT(13),WR1(10),WR2(10),MY 2841 * ,SKEY(120),S0L(120,4) 2842 INTEGER*2 SAHH(120),UAHH(120),ISOL(120,2) 2843 C0MM0N/BLK8/DU1(36000),SAHH,UAHH,ISOL.SOL 2844 C0MM0N/BLK21/TITLE(6),HHD(120,10),HHT(10,6),DWD(3,1 2845 * ,PAR(40),POL(10,4),EXT(2,2,12),ZW(11),IC1(20),IPOL 2846 EQUIVALENCE (IC1(1),NZ),(IC1(2),NMD),(IC1(3),NHT),( 2847 * ,(IC1(5),NMD1),(IC1(7),IP1),(IC1(.10),NS) 2848 * ,(IC1(10),NS) 2849 * ,(DIFF1(1),PART),(DIFF1(2).MEANS),(DIFF1(4),MEDNS) 2850 * ,(DIFF1(5),BNEW),(DIFF1(6),SNEW) 2851 C . 2852 EQUIVALENCE (DU1(1 ) ,SUBP(1,1,1 ) ,SKEY(1),DIFF(1,1)) 2853 * ,(DU1(51),DIFF1(1)),(DU1 (61),MER( 1 ) ) 2854 * ,(DU1(101),WR1(1)),(DU1(111),WR2(1)),(DU1(121),IWR 2855 C . PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 2754 FA = FB 2755 B = C 2756 FB = FC 2757 C = A 2758 FC = FA 2759 52 CMB=0.5*(C-B) 2760 ACMB = ABS(CMB) 2761 C . 2762 C . .. TEST STOPPING CRITERION AND FUNCTION COUNT 2763 C . 2764 IF(ACMB.LE.TOL)GOT0 58 2765 IF(KOUNT.GE.100)GOTO 62 2766 C . 2767 C . .. CALCULATE NEW ITERATE IMPLICITLY AS B+P/O 2768 C . .. WHERE P.GE.O. THE IMPLICIT FORM IS USED TO 2769 C . .. PREVENT OVERFLOW. 2770 C . 2771 P=(B-A)*FB 2772 0 = FA-FB . 2773 IF(P.GE.0.0)GOTO 53 2774 P = -P 2775 0 = -0 2776 C . 2777 C . .. UPDATE A. CHECK IF REDUCTION IN THE SIZE OF BRACKETI 2778 C . .. INTERVAL IS SATISFACTORY. IF NOT, BISECT UNTIL IT IS 2779 C . 2780 53 A = B 2781 FA = FB 2782 IC=IC+1 2783 I F ( I C . LT.4)G0T0 54 2784 IF(8.0*ACMB.GE.ACBS)G0T0 56 2785 IC=0 2786 ACBS=ACMB 2787 C . 2788 C . . . TEST FOR TOO SMALL A CHANGE 2789 C . 2790 54 IF(P.GT.ABS(0)*TOL)GOTO 55 2791 C . 2792 C . .. INCREMENT BY TOLERANCE 2793 C . 2794 B=B+SIGN(TOL,CMB) 2795 GOTO 57 2796 C . 2797 C . .. ROOT OUGH TO BE BETWEEN B AND (C+B)/2 2798 C . 2799 55 IF(P.GE.CMB*0)GOTO 56 2800 C . 2801 C . .. USE SECANT RULE 2802 B=B+P/Q 2803 GOTO 57 2804 c. PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 2703 C 2704 ENTRY FQ(F,PJ,Y.SUBA) 2705 C 2706 SUBA=(PX-PJ)*OX 2707 Y = AY + SUBA 2708 C 2709 CALL PARA1(K,Y,XSHARE,DPP) 2710 C 271 1 PP = PJ 2712 IF(IO.NE.1)G0T0 1 2713 PP=PJ*DPP(13)/PX 2714 SUBA=SUBA+(PX-PP)*(QX-QH) 2715 Y=AY+SUBA 2716 CALL PARA1(K,Y,XSHARE,DPP) 2717 C 2718 1 CALL CL$UT(UX,UHS,UA,PP,QX,Y, IZ) 2719 C 2720 F=UH-UX 2721 C 2722 IF(IP1.EQ.10)WRITE(6,1000) UH,UX,PJ,PX,QX,F 2723 1000 F0RMAT(2F2O.4,2F1O.4,F1O.2,F2O.5) 2724 C 2725 RETURN 2726 END 2727 C 2728 C 2729 C . . . ro u t i ne to match ut i 1 i 11es 2730 C 2731 SUBROUTINE CALC4 2732 C 2733 DATA TOL/0.0001/ 2734 C 2735 ENTRY PQDC(PA,PJ,Y.SUBA,ISO, *) 2736 C 2737 B = PA 2738 C=0. 1 2739 C 2740 IC=0 2741 ACBS=ABS(B-C) 2742 A = C 2743 C 2744 CALL FQ(FA,A,Y.SUBA) 2745 CALL FQ(FB,B,Y.SUBA) 2746 FC = FA 2747 K0UNT=2 2748 FX=AMAX1(ABS(FB),ABS(FC)) 2749 51 IF(ABS(FC).GE.ABS(FB))GOTO 52 2750 C 2751 C ... INTERCHANGE B AND C SO THAT ABS(F(B).LE.ABS(F(C)) 2752 C 2753 A = B -CD PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 2652 Y = AY + SUBA 2653 GOTO 20 2654 C 2655 C . . . PRICE SUBSIDY 2656 16 DO 36 N=1,50 2657 A=(XSHARE*AY)/(PX*QX) 2658 PJ=A*PX 2659 SUBA=(1.-A)*PX*QX 2660 Y=AY+SUBA 2661 c 2662 IF( IP 1 .EQ. 10) WRITE (6', 9 9 9 ) A, SUBA, XSHARE, Y, BY 2663 IF(A.LT.0. .OR.A.GE. 1. )G0T0 37 2664 IF(ABS(Y-BY).LT,O.O5)G0T0 20 2665 c 2666 BY = Y 2667 CALL PARA1(K,Y,XSHARE, DPP) 2668 c 2669 XSHARE = XSHARE+DPP(14)*ALOG(PJ/DPP( 13)) 2670 c 267 1 CALL CL$UT(U,UHS,UA,PX,QX,AY, IZ) 2672 36 CONTINUE 2673 GOTO 20 2674 c 2675 37 SUBA=0. 2676 U = - 1 . 2677 GOTO 19 2678 C 2679 20 CALL CL$UT(U,UHS,UA,PX,QX,Y,IZ) 2680 c 2681 19 IF(IP1.EQ.10)WRITE(6,1000)IP,PX,QX,Y,U,UHS,UA,XSHAR 2682 C 2683 IF(U.LE.0.)QX=0. 2684 RETURN 2685 c 2686 1000 FORMAT(' sub: ' ,12,2F8.2,F8.0,3F8.4,2F8.4) 2687 1999 FORMAT(' C:',3F12.4) 2688 C 2689 END 2690 C 2691 C 2692 c SUBROUTINE TO RETURN DIFFERENCE IN UTILITIES 2693 c 2694 SUBROUTINE CALC5 2695 C 2696 C0MM0N/BLK21/D21(1798),IC1(20) 2697 C0MM0N/PARA/DDP(61O),DPP(15) 2698 c 2699 EQUIVALENCE ( I C 1 ( 7 ) , I P 1 ) 2700 C 2701 ENTRY PQDCI(10,K,UH,QH,PX,QX,AY,IZ) 2702 RETURN PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 2601 C . 2602 IF(ABS(Y-BY).LT.0.05)GOTO 20 2603 C . 2604 BY = Y 2605 CALL PARA1(K,Y,XSHARE,DPP) 2606 C . 2607 XSHARE=XSHARE+DPP(14)*ALOG(PX/DPP(13)) 2608 C . 2609 31 CONTINUE 2610 GOTO 20 261 1 C . 2612 42 -U = - 1 . 2613 SUBA=0. 2614 GOTO 19 26 15 C . 2616 C . .. DIRECT CONSTRAINED 26 17 C . .. SOLVE FOR U=UH AT OX 2618 13 IF(UH. EQ.O. )RETURN 2619 CALL PQDCI(2,K,UH,QH,PX,QX,AY, IZ) 2620 PA=(AY/QX)-0.01 2621 IF(PA.GT.PX)PA=PX 2622 CALL PQDC(PA,PU,Y.SUBA,IS1,&72) 2623 C . 2624 IF(PJ.EQ.O.)RETURN 2625 C . 2626 U=UH+ 0.00001 2627 GOTO 19 2628 C . 2629 72 SUBA=(PX-PJ)*QX 2630 Y = AY + SUBA 2631 CALL PARA1(K,Y.XSHARE.DPP) 2632 CALL CL$UT(U,UHS,UA,PJ,OX,Y,IZ) 2633 IF(U.LE.O.) U=-1. 2634 GOTO 19 2635 C . 2636 c. .. DIRECT QUANTITY 2637 14 IF(QH.EQ.O.)RETURN 2638 c. 2639 CALL PARA1(K,AY,XSHARE,DPP) 2640 c. 2641 XSHARE=XSHARE+DPP(14 ) *ALOG(PX/DPP(13)) 2642 c. 2643 QXH=AY*XSHARE/PX 2644 c. 2645 SUBA=(QX-QXH)*PX 2646 Y=AY+SUBA 2647 GOTO 20 2648 c. 2649 c. .. DIRECT EXPENDITURE 2650 15 IF(QH.EQ.O.)RETURN 2651 SUBA=(QX*PX-QH*PH) PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 3111 IF(IS.NE.50.AND.IS.NE.100.AND.IS.NE.150)GOTO 915 3112 IF(IS.E0.NHH)GOTO 915 3113 C . . .. 3114 G0T0(8,9),I0 3115 8 WRITE(6,99)TITLE 3116 CALL 0T$ST(NS) 3117 WRITE(6,904) 3118 GOTO 915 3119 C. . . 3120 9 WRITE(6,110)TITLE 3121 C. . . 3122 915 CONTINUE 3123 C.. 3124 IF(10 . EO. 1)WRITE(6,906)WR2(5),(WR2(K),K = 2.4) 3125 IF(I0.EQ.2)WRITE(6,906)WR2(5),(WR2(K),K=2,3) 3126 C . . . 3127 904 F0RMAT(/T5,'HHOLD',T16,'INCOME',T36,'DWELLING',T59, 3128 *' tf TYPE g r o s s net ft p r i c e q u a n t i t y 3129 * 'AMOUNT') 3130 905 FORMAT(14,F4.0,2F9.0,14,F8.3,F8.1,F8.1 , 14, F8 . 1 ) 3131 906 F0RMAT(T2,66('-')/T17,F9.0,T39,2F8.1,T59,F8.1) 3132 C. . . 3133 IF(10 . EO.2)RETURN 3134 C. . . 3135 WRITE(6,101)TITLE 3136 CALL 0T$ST(N5) 3137 101 FORMATC1*** SUBSIDY IMPACT: ',6A4/) 3138 C . . . 3139 IF(BNEW.EO.0.)RETURN 3140 C. . . 3141 WRITE(6,102)DIFF1 3142 102 FORMAT(/' P a r t i c i p a n t s : ' , T 3 0 , F 5 . 0 , T 4 0 , ' S u b s i d y : 3143 * F8.1/T18,': percent',T30,F5.2,'%',T47,': Median',T 3144 *//' New C o n s t r u c t i o n : Base',T30,F5.0/T18,': S u b s i d i 3145 */T18,': % change',T28,F7.2,'%') 3146 C . . . 3147 WRITE(6,103)((DIFF(I,u),J=1,5),I=1,7),(MER(I),I=1,4 3148 WRITE (6 , 104 ) ( (DI FF ( I , <J ) , <J = 2 , 4 ) , I = 8 , 9 ) , DI FF ( 10, 1 ) 3149 C . . . 3150 103 F0RMATC/T22, 'CM.A. ' ,T42, 'RECIPIENTS' ,T62, 'NON-' 3151 * /T35,'al1 low "Y" hig h "Y" RECIPIENTS' 3152 *//' Number',T17,5F10.0, //' Changes'/' P r i c e s ' , T 1 3153 * /' q u a n t i t y ' , T 1 9 , 5 ( F 9 . 2 , ' % ' ) / ' expenditure',T1 3154 *//' Incomes'/' Lowest',T19,5F10.0 /' H i g h e s t ' , 3155 *//' Changes i n ' / ' P u r c h a s i n g Power',T19,5(F9.2,'%') 3156 *//' E f f i c i e n c y Rat 1o',T19,4F10.3) 3157 C. . . 3158 104 FORMAT(/' Earmarking Rat i o' , T28, 3F10.2//' "/Subsidy CD 3159 * ,3(F9.2,'%')//' p a r t i c i p a t i o n ' / 8 X , ' r a t e ' , T 1 8 , F 1 0 . 2 £ 3160 * ' note: NON-RECIPIENTS are 1owest-income group'/ ^* 3161 C. . . PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 3060 99 FORMATC1*** SUBSIDY AMOUNT: ',6A4/) 3061 CALL OT$ST(NS) 3062 C . . . 3063 IF(PART.EQ.O.O)G0T0 71 3064 C . . . 3065 WRITE(6,904) 3066 C . . . 3067 GOTO 199 3068 C . . . 3069 ENTRY OT$BS 3070 C . . . 3071 10=2 3072 WRITE(6,110)TITLE 3073 110 FORMATC1*** BASE AMOUNT: ',6A4 3074 * //T5, 'HHOLD',T16, 'INCOME',T36, 'DWELLING' 3075 * /' H TYPE g r o s s net H p r i c e q u a n t i t y 3076 C . . . 3077 199 DO 940 1=1,5 3078 940 WR2(I)=0. 3079 C . . . 3080 DO 915 IS=1,NHH 3081 C . . . 3082 I=UAHH(IS) 3083 AY=HHD(I,10) 3084 GY=AY+HHD(I,4)/12. 3085 KT=IFIX(ABS(HHD(1,2))) 3086 C . . . 3087 IF(ISOL(I,1).LE.0)GOTO 910 3088 d=IS0L(I,1) 3089 C . . . 3090 WR 1(1) =SOL(1,1) 3091 WR1(2)=S0L(I,2) 3092 WR1(3) =WR1(1)*WR1(2) 3093 IWR1( 1 ) = 1SOL(1,2) 3094 WR1(4)=S0L(I,4) 3095 GOTO 930 3096 C... NO DWELLING 3097 9 10 DO 911 K=1,4 3098 IWR1(K)=0 3099 911 WR1(K)=0. 3100 d=0 3101 GOTO 930 3102 C . . . 3103 930 DO 931 K=1,4 3104 931 WR2(K)=WR2(K)+WR1(K) 3105 WR2(5)=WR2(5)+AY 3106 C . . . 3107 IF(10 . EO. 1)WRITE(6,905)I,HHD(I,2),GY,AY,d,(WR1(K),K 3108 * ,WR1(4) 'GO 3109 IF(10.EO.2)WRITE(6,905)1,HHD(I,2),GY,AY,d,(WR1(K),K ^ PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 3009 38 DIFF(2,L)=DIFF(2,L) + S0L(I , 1 ) 3010 DIFF(3,L)=DIFF(3,L)+S0L(I,2) 301 1 DIFF(4,L)=DIFF(4,L)+S0L(I,1 )*SOL(I,2) 3012 C . . . 3013 34 TPB=TPB+HHD(I,7) 3014 TQB=TQB+HHD(I,8) 3015 TEB=TEB+HHD(1,7)*HHD(1,8) 3016 TS=TS+S0L(I,4) 3017 C . . . 3018 AY=HHD(I,10) 3019 GY=AY+HHD(I,4)/12. 3020 C . . . 3021 IF(AY.LT.DIFF(5,L))DIFF(5,L)=AY 3022 IF(AY.GT.DIFF(6,L))DIFF(6,L)=AY 3023 C . . . 3024 TI=TI+AY 3025 DIFF(7,L)=DIFF(7,L)+AY+S0L(I,4) 3026 C . . . 3027 DO 950 N=1,NS 3028 I F(AY . GT.P0L(6,N))GOTO 950 3029 DIFF( 10, L)=DIFF( 10, U + 1 . 3030 GOTO 33 3031 950 CONTINUE 3032 C . . . 3033 33 CONTINUE 3034 C. . . 3035 C... p a r t i c i p a t i o n 3036 I F ( L . EO. 1.AND.DIFF(10,1).NE.0.)DIFF(10,1)=PART* 100. 3037 C . . . 3038 IF(MEANS*PART.NE.0. )DIFF(9,L) = (DIFF(7,L)-TI)*100./( 3039 C . . . 3040 IF(DIFF(7,L)-TI.NE.O.O) 3041 * DIFF(8,L)=(DIFF(4,L)-TEB)*100./(DIFF(7,L)-TI) 3042 C. . . '/.increase p u r c h a s i n g power 3043 IF(TI.NE.O.)DIFF(7,L)=(DIFF(7,L)-TI)*100./TI 3044 C... changes 3045 IF(TPB.NE.0. )DIFF(2,L ) = (01FF(2,L)-TPB)* 100./TPB 3046 IF(TOB . NE.0. )DIFF(3 , L ) = (DIFF(3,L)-TQB)* 100./TQB 3047 IF(TEB.NE.0. )DIFF(4 , L ) = (DIFF(4,L)-TEB)* 100./TEB 3048 C . . . 3049 C... market e f f i c i e n c y r a t i o 3050 IF(DIFF(1,L).NE.0.)TS=TS/DIFF(1,L) 3051 IF(TS.NE.0.0)MER(L)=DIFF(3,L)/TS 3052 C . . . 3053 40 CONTINUE 3054 RETURN 3055 C . . . 3056 ENTRY OT$SB 3057 C . . . 3058 10=1 3059 WRITE(6,99)TITLE CO ON PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 2958 UNSUB=DIFF(1,1)-DIFF(1,2) 2959 C . . . 2960 IF(UNSUB.LT.10)DIFF(1,5)=UNSUB 2961 C. . . 2962 DO 40 L=1,5 2963 C . . . 2964 TPB=0. 2965 TQB=0. 2966 TEB=0. 2967 TS=0.0 2968 T l =0. 2969 IF=0 2970 C . . . 2971 I1=IFIX(DIFF(1,L)+.01) 2972 I F(I 1 ,E0.O)GOTO 40 2973 C . . . 2974 DO 33 K=1,11 2975 C . . . 2976 G0T0(50,52,53,54,53),L 2977 C . . . 2978 50 I=K 2979 GOTO 51 2980 C . . . 2981 C... a l l p a r t i c i p a n t s 2982 52 IS=IF+1 2983 DO 62 IF=IS,NHH 2984 I = IF 2985 IF(S0L(I,4).NE.O.O)GO TO 51 2986 62 CONTINUE 2987 GO TO 51 2988 C . . . 2989 C... h i g h income 2990 54 IS=IF+1 2991 DO 63 IF=IS,NHH 2992 I=UAHH(IF) 2993 IF(SOL(I,4).NE.0.0)GOTO 51 2994 63 CONTINUE 2995 GOTO 51 2996 C . . . 2997 C... low income - both 2998 53 IS=IF+1 2999 DO 64 IF=IS,NHH 3000 IK=NHH+1-IF 3001 I=UAHH(IK) 3002 I F ( L . E0.3.AND.SOL(I,4).NE.0.0)GOTO 51 3003 IF(L.E0.5.AND.SOL(I,4).E0.O.O)G0T0 51 3004 64 CONTINUE 3005 C . . . 3006 C. . . f i n d dwe11i ng 3007 51 IF(ISOL(I,1).LE.0)GOTO 34 3008 C . . . PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 2907 3 SAHH(K)=IS 2908 C . 2909 C . 2910 DO 20 1=1,10 291 1 DO 20 J=1,5 2912 20 DIFF(I , J)=0. 2913 C . 2914 DO 21 1=1,7 2915 21 DIFF1(I)=0. 2916 C . 2917 DO 22 1=1,5 2918 22 MER(I)=0.0 2919 C . 2920 C . c a l c u l a t i n g DIFF1 v a l u e s 2921 DO 30 1=1,NHH 2922 IF(S0L(I,4).GT.0.0)PART=PART+1 2923 MEANS=MEANS+SOL(I,4) 2924 C . 2925 IF(HHD(I,6).E0.999.)BNEW=BNEW+1. 2926 IF(ISOL(I,1).E0.999) SNEW=SNEW+1 2927 C . 2928 30 CONTINUE 2929 C . 2930 IF(PART.EO.O.OR.BNEW.EQ.O.0)RETURN 2931 C . 2932 DO 23 J=1,5 2933 23 DIFF(5,J)=1E10 2934 C . 2935 MEANS=MEANS/PART 2936 DIFF 1 (3) = PART*100./FLOAT(NHH) 2937 C . 2938 I=IFIX(PART+2.1)/2. 2939 J=IFIX(PART+1.1)/2. 2940 C . 2941 I1=SAHH(I) 2942 J1=SAHH(J) 2943 MEDNS = (SOL(I 1,4) + S0L(U1 ,4) )/2 . 2944 C . 2945 IF(BNEW.NE.0.0)DIFF1(7)=(SNEW-BNEW)*100./BNEW 2946 C . 2947 C . .. c a l c u l a t i n g DIFF v a l u e s 2948 C . .. numbers 2949 DIFF( 1 , 1 ) = FLOAT(NHH) 2950 DIFF( 1 ,2)=PART 2951 DO 31 1=3,5 2952 31 DIF F( 1 ,I) = 10. 2953 C . 2954 DO 32 1=3,4 2955 IF(PART . LT.20. )DIFF( 1 ,I ) = FLOAT(IFIX(PART/2. )) 2956 32 IF(DIFF(1,I).EQ.O.)DIFF(1,I)=1. 2957 C . PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 2856 DATA YT/50.,100.,150.,200.,250.,300.,350. ,400 2857 * 2000.,3000./ 2858 C . 2859 ENTRY CL$SB1(Kd) 2860 C . 2861 I F ( I P 1 .EO. 1O.AND.Kd.EQ.2)GOT0 999 2862 C . 2863 C . .. c a l c u l a t i n g s u b s i d y by h'hold 2864 C . 2865 K=IP0L(1,1) 2866 DO 10 1=1,NHH 2867 S0L(I,4)=0. 2868 C . 2869 IF(K.GE.20)G0T0 7 2870 C . 287 1 L=IS0L(I,2)/10 2872 d=IS0L(I,1) 2873 IF(d.LE.0.0R.L.EQ.O)G0T0 10 2874 C . 2875 IP=ISOL(I,2)-10*L 2876 IS=IP0L(2,L) 2877 AY=HHD(I,1)/12. 2878 KT=IFIX(ABS(HHD(I,2) ) ) 2879 IF(HHD(1,1).GT.HHT(KT,1))AY=AY*(1.-PPP) 2880 C . 2881 S0L(I,4)=SUB(IP,IS,L,AY,S0L(I,1),SOL(I,2),d) 2882 C . 2883 GOTO 10 2884 C . 2885 7 SOL(I,4) = I SOL(I,2)/10. 2886 IF(S0L(1,4).GT.0.001)I SOL(I,2)=20+1 POL ( 2 , 1) 2887 C . 2888 10 CONTINUE 2889 C . 2890 IF(Kd.EO. 1 )RETURN 2891 C . 2892 C . .. SORTING HOUSEHOLDS BY SUBSIDY AMOUNT 2893 999 DO 1 1 = 1 ,NHH 2894 1 SKEY(I)=SOL(1,4) 2895 C . 2896 DO 3 K=1,NHH 2897 IS=0 2898 X=-9.E10 2899 C . 2900 DO 2 N=1,NHH 2901 IF(SKEY(N).LE.X)GOTO 2 2902 X=SKEY(N) 2903 IS = N 2904 2 CONTINUE 2905 C . 2906 SKEY(IS)=-9.E10 CD vo PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 3468 31 CONTINUE 3469 C 3470 101 FORMAT(T2,A1,A8,T11, ' | ' , 120A 1) 3471 102 FORMAT(T3,A8,T11,'|',120A1) 3472 103 FORMAT(1H+,T12, 120A 1) 3473 104 FORMAT(T12,120A1) 3474 C 3475 C..."BOTTOM AXIS" 3476 IF(INPT.NE.NF)WRITE(P,104)(GRAP1(NF+1,MC),MC=1,NWID 3477 C 3478 C..."CO-ORDINATES" 3479 IF(IFREQH.EQ. 1)WRITE(P, 1 1 1 )(HCORD(d) ,d=1,NCORDS) 3480 IF(IFREQH.EQ.2)WRITE(P, 1 12)(HCORD(J),d =1.NCORDS) 3481 IF( IFREQH.EQ.3)WRITE(P, 113)(HCORD(d),d=1.NCORDS) 3482 IF(IFREQH.EQ.4)WRITE(P,114)(HCORD(d),d=1.NCORDS) 3483 C 3484 111 F0RMAT(T12,24I5) 3485 112 F0RMAT(T11,12110) 3486 113 F0RMAT(T12,8I15) 3487 114 F0RMAT(T11,6120) 3488 C 3489 NC=N0*2 3490 IF(NC.GT.10)NC=10 3491 C 3492 C..."TITLES" 3493 IF(NWIDE.LE.30)WRITE(P,105)(HEAD(d,2),d=1,16),(GTIT 3494 105 F0RMAT(T18,16A1//T17,4A8/T2,6A8) 3495 IF(NWIDE.EQ.60)WRITE(P,106)(HEAD(d,2),d=1,16),(GTIT 3496 106 F0RMAT(T54,16A1//T3,10A8) 3497 IF(NWIDE.GT.60)WRITE(P,107)(HEAD(d,2),d=1,16),(GTIT 3498 107 FORMAT(T80,16A1//T3,10A8) 3499 C 3500 RETURN 3501 END CD Ln D PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 3417 GO TO 3 3418 4 GRAP1(N,dW)=NCHAR(d) 34 19 GO TO 3 3420 3 CONTINUE 3421 30 CONTINUE 3422 C. .. "INSERTING HORIZONTAL AXIS" 3423 DO 201 0=1,NWIDE 3424 201 IF(GRAP1(INPT,d).EQ.B)GRAP1(INPT,d)=A 3425 10 DO 218 d=1,NWIDE 3426 218 GRAP1 (NF+1,J)=A 3427 C 3428 C ... "VERTICAL COORDINATES" 3429 DO 217 J=1,NF 3430 217 VCORD(0)=BLANK 3431 C. . . 3432 NS = INPT-(INPT/1FREO)* IFREO 3433 SVALUE=BASEV+FLOAT(NF-NS)*SPACE 3434 ADU=0.00001*10.**MULT 3435 IF(ABS(CMIN).LT.100)MULT=MULT-2 3436 IF(MULT.GT.O)MULT=0 3437 C . . . 3438 IF(INPT.NE.NF)SVALUE=SVALUE-(BASEV+FLOAT(NF-INPT)*S 3439 C . . . 3440 DO 211 0 = NS,NF,IFREO 344 1 IF(SVALUE.GT.0)NVALUE = IFIX((SVALUE+ADJ)/10.**MULT) 3442 IF(SVALUE.LE.O)NVALUE=IFIX((SVALUE-ADd)/10.**MULT) 3443 CALL BTD(NVALUE,HOLD(1),8,I,' ') 3444 VC0RD(d)=C0RD8 3445 C. . . 3446 211 SVALUE=SVALUE-FLOAT(IFREQ)*SPACE 3447 C . . . 3448 C..."HORIZONTAL COORDINATES" 3449 NCORDS=N0V/5 3450 GOTO(11,12) ,NTYPE 3451 C 3452 11 DO 212 d=1,NC0RDS 3453 212 HC0RD(d)=d*5*HMAX/NWIDE 3454 GOTO 7 3455 12 CONTINUE 3456 C 3457 7 CONTINUE 3458 C 3459 C..."HEADING FOR GRAPH" 3460 WRITE(P,99)TITLE 3461 99 FORMAT('1' ,9A8/ ) 3462 C 3463 C..."GRAPHICAL OUTPUT" 3464 DO 31 d=1,NF 3465 IF(d.LE.16)WRITE(P,101)HEAD(d,1),VCORD(d). 3466 *(GRAP1 (d,MC),MC=1,NWIDE) 3467 IF(d.GT.16)WRITE(P,1O2)VC0RD(d),(GRAP1(d,MC),MC=1,N PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 3366 DO 95 N=1,20 3367 SPRATE=SPRATE*10. 3368 IF(SPRATE.GT.0.01)G0 TO 96 3369 95 CONTINUE 3370 GOTO 89 3371 96 MULT=-N 3372 C 3373 C . .."GENERATE VERTICAL AXIS COORDINATES FREO" 3374 94 XIM=10. 3375 DO 202 1=1,4 3376 X=SPRATE*(1+3) 3377 C 3378 DO 203 K=1, 15 3379 IF(X.LE.0.0)G0T0 204 3380 203 X=X-0.5 3381 C 3382 204 K=K-1 3383 C 3384 C 3385 XI=(FL0AT(K)*O.5)-FL0AT(I+3)*SPRATE 3386 IF(XI.GE.XIM)G0TQ 202 3387 XIM=XI 3388 IFRE0=I+3 3389 XS=(FLOAT(K)*0.5)/FL0AT(IFREO) 3390 202 CONTINUE 3391 C 3392 SPRATE=XS 3393 C 3394 SPACE=(10.**MULT*SPRATE) 3395 C . .."INSERTION POINT FOR FLOATING AXIS" 3396 IF(SPREAD.LE.CMAX)INPT=NHIGH+1 3397 IF(SPREAD.GT.CMAX)INPT = IFIX(NF-(ABS(BASEV)/SPACE ) ) 3398 IF(CMAX.LE.0)INPT=1 3399 C 3400 97 NOV=NT 3401 IFREOH=NWIDE/NT 3402 IF(IFREQH.GT.4)IFRE0H=4 3403 IF(IFREQH.NE.0)GOTO 230 3404 N0V=NWIDE 3405 IFREQH=1 3406 C 3407 C . .."CONVERT INPUT DATA TO OUTPUT MATRIX" 3408 230 DO 3 J=1,N0 3409 DO 3 d1=1,N0V 3410 IF(DATAS(d1,d).EQ.-1.)GOTO 3 341 1 N=IFIX(NF-((DATAS(d1,d )-BASEV)/SPACE)) 3412 IF(N.LT.1)N=1 3413 I F (N.GT.NHIGH+1)N = NHIGH+1 3414 dW=(IFREQH*(d1-1) )+1 3415 IF(GRAP1(N,dW).EQ.B)GOTO 4 3416 GRAP1(N,dW)=HST CO Ul PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 3315 COMMON/BLK1/TITLE 3316 C0MM0N/BLK8/GTITLE,BASE,HMAX,NTYPE,HEAD,DATAS ( 3317 C 3318 EQUIVALENCE (H0LD(1),C0RD8),(NOLD(1),C0RD8) 3319 INTEGER P 3320 DATA A/'-'/.B/' '/.HST/'*'/ 3321 * ,C0RD8/' '/,BLANK/' '/ 3322 C 3323 ML=0 3324 MULT=0 3325 1000 FORMAT(41 10) 3326 C 3327 NF =NHIGH+1 3328 DO 1 J=1,NWIDE 3329 DO 1 I=1,NF 3330 1 GRAP1(I,d)=B 3331 C 3332 C 'FIND MAX AND MIN VALUE" 3333 CMIN=1000000000.0 3334 CMAX=-CMIN 3335 DO 2 d=1,N0 3336 DO 2 01=1,NT 3337 IF(DATAS(d1,d).EQ.-1.)GOTO 2 3338 IF(DATAS(d1,d).GT.CMAX)CMAX = DATAS( d 1 ,d) 3339 IF(DATAS(d1,d).LT.CMIN)CMIN=DATAS(d1,d) 3340 2 CONTINUE 3341 IF(CMAX.LT.O)CMAX=0. 3342 IF(NTYPE.EQ. 1 )CMIN=BASE 3343 BASEV=CMIN 3344 IF(CMIN.EQ.CMAX)GOTO 89 3345 C 3346 C 3347 BASEV=(FLOAT(IFIX(CMIN/1000.)))*1000. 3348 IF(CMIN.LT.0)BASEV=BASEV-1000. 3349 C 3350 C 11 CALCULATE SPREAD" 3351 80 IF(NTYPE.GT.1)G0 TO 94 3352 C 3353 SPREAD=CMAX-BASEV 3354 SPRATE=SPREAD/FLOAT(NF) 3355 IF(SPRATE.LT.1.)GOTO 92 3356 DO 91 N=1,20 3357 SPRATE=SPRATE/10. 3358 IF(SPRATE.LT.1.)G0T0 93 3359 91 CONTINUE 3360 C 89 CALL 0UT$C1(4) 3361 89 RETURN 3362 93 MULT=N 3363 GO TO 94 3364 92 MULT=0 3365 IF(SPRATE.GT.0.01)GO TO 94 PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 3264 DO 2 1=1,NHH 3265 IF(I SOL(I,1).LE,0)GOTO 2 3266 M=IFIX(SOL(I,2)*FL0AT(NWIDE)/FL0AT(HMAX)) 3267 IF(M.LT.1)GOT0 2 3268 IF(M.GT.NWIDE)M=NWIDE 3269 C . . 3270 J=ISOL(I,1) 3271 IF(J.NE.999)G0T0 3 3272 KT=IFIX(ABS(HHD(I,2))) 3273 C . . 3274 IF(KT.LE.5)DATAS(M,12)=-1. 3275 IF(KT.GT.5)DATAS(M, 13) = -1. 3276 DATAS(M, 11)=SOL(I,1 ) 3277 GOTO 2 3278 C . . 3279 3 IT = IF IX(ABS(HHD(I,2))) 3280 DATAS(M,IT)=SOL(I,1) 328 1 2 CONTINUE 3282 C . . 3283 NTYPE=1 3284 NT= 120 3285 N0= 13 3286 NHIGH=50 3287 BASE=0: 3288 C . . 3289 DO 5 1=1,16 3290 HEAD(I, 1 ) = SHEAD1(I) 3291 5 HEAD(I,2)=SHEAD2(I) 3292 C . . 3293 GTITLE(1)=BLANK 3294 DO 6 1=2,10 3295 6 GTITLE(I)=STITLE(I-1) 3296 DO 8 1=5,7 3297 8 GTITLE(I)=TITLE(I-4) 3298 C . . 3299 C . . 3300 DO 7 1=1,9 3301 7 A(I ) =BLANK 3302 C . 3303 CALL OUT$GP(NT,NO,NHIGH,NWIDE,6,NCHAR) 3304 C . 3305 RETURN 3306 END 3307 C . 3308 SUBROUTINE OUT$GP(NT,NO,NHIGH,NWIDE,P,NCHAR) 3309 INTEGER*4 HCORD(24),NOLD(2),HMAX 3310 INTEGER*2 NCHAR(NO),GRAP1(52,120) 331 1 L0GICAL*1 HEAD(16,2),H0LD(8) 3312 REAL*8 GTITLE(10),VC0RD(51),C0RD8,BLANK 3313 INTEGER*2 A,B,HST 3314 REAL*8 TITLE(9) CD. Ul,' PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 3213 * , ' /MONTH :MINQ=',F5.0) 3214 110 FORMAT( ' SUB = PRICE :PON=' ,F4 . 2, 'PCN=' ,F4 . 2, 'POE= ' ,F 3215 * ,'PCE=',F4.2 ,' :Y LIMIT=',F6.0,'/MONTH :MINQ=',F5 3216 111 FORMAT(T64,':MAXR=',F5.0) 3217 120 FORMAT(' SUB= c o n s t r a i n e d : ' ,3A8,'MINQ= '.2F7.2) 3218 C . . . 3219 END 3220 C. . . 3221 SUBROUTINE AL$GRP(NWIDE) 3222 LOGICALM HEAD( 16,2),SHEAD1(16),SHEAD2( 16) 3223 INTEGER*2 NCHAR(13),I SOL(120,2) 3224 INTEGER*4 HMAX 3225 REALM SOL ( 1 20, 4 ) . D AT AS ( 12 1 , 1 3 ) , PR ICE ( 5 , 2 ) 3226 REAL*8 GTITLE(10) ,STITLE(10),RHEAD 1(2),RHEAD2(2),BL 3227 * ,TITLE(3) 3228 C... 3229 COMMON/BLK1/A 3230 C0MM0N/BLK8/DU1(3612O),IS0L,S0L 3231 COMMON/BLK21/TITLE,HHD(120,10),HHT(10,6),DWD(3,120) 3232 * ,PAR(40),POL(10,4),EXT(2,2, 12) ,ZW(11),IC1(20) 3233 EQUIVALENCE (IC1(1),NZ),(IC1(2),NMD),(IC1(3),NHT), ( 3234 * ,(IC 1 (5),NMD 1) 3235 * ,(PAR(11),PRICE(1,1)) 3236 C . . . 3237 EQUIVALENCE (DU 1 (1),GTITLE(1)),(DU1(21),BASE),(DU1 ( 3238 * , (DU1 (23).NTYPE),(DU1(24),HEAD(1, 1 ) ) ,(DU1(32).DATA 3239 EQUIVALENCE (RHEAD1(1),SHEAD1(1)),(RHEAD2(1),SHEAD2 3240 C . . . 3241 DATA NCHAR/'r ' , ' r ' , ' r ' , ' r ' , ' r ','o ','o ','o ', 3242 * ,'n '/ 3243 * .STITLE/' PRICE-Q','UANTITY ','CURVES ',!*• 3244 * ,RHEAD1/' ',' p r i c e '/ 3245 * ,RHEAD2/' "Q" of ','housing '/ 3246 * .BLANK/' '/ 3247 C . . . 3248 HMAX=480 3249 C . . . 3250 DO 9 J=1,13 3251 DO 9 1=1,120 3252 9 DATAS(I,J)=-1. 3253 C . . . 3254 C... l o a d PN and PO 3255 K=I FIX(PRICE(3, 1 ) *FLOAT(NWIDE)/FLOAT(HMAX)) 3256 DO 1 I=K,NWIDE 3257 1 DATAS(I, 12) = PRICE(4,1 ) 3258 C . . . 3259 K=IFIX(PRICE(3,2 ) * F LOAT(NWIDE)/FLOAT(HMAX)) 3260 DO 4 I=K,NWIDE 3261 4 DATAS(I,13)=PRICE(4,2) 03 3262 C . . . C J I 3263 C . . . LTt PROGRAM:F10:SIM02.FORT 3162 RETURN 3163 C . 3164 C . . . no p a r t 1cipants 3165 71 WRITE(6,105) 3166 105 FORMAT(/' NO PARTICIPANTS') 3167 RETURN 3168 C . . 3169 END 3170 C 3171 SUBROUTINE OT$ST(NS) 3172 COMMON /BLK21/DUK1699) ,POL( 10, 4 ) , DU2 ( 79 ) , I POL (2 , 4 ) 3173 REAL*8 T0P(3)/'*AY) ','*P*0) ','*P*Q*AY)'/ 3174 * ,C0N(3,7) /'income ',' 3175 * , ' i n k i n d ','demand ',' 3176 * , ' d i r e c t c ' , ' o n s t r a i n ' , ' e d ' 3177 * , ' d i r e c t q ' . ' u a n t i t y ',' 3178 * , ' d i r e c t e ' , ' x p e n d i t u ' , ' r e ' 3179 * , ' d i r e c t p ' , ' r i c e ',' ' 3180 * , ' d i r e c t m'.'inimum s' . ' u b s i d y '/ 3181 C 3182 DO 800 L=1,NS 3183 IF(IPOL(1,L).GE.7.AND.IP0L(1,L).LE.9)G0T0 810 3184 IS=IPOL(2,L) 3185 IF(IP0L(1,L).GE.20)GOTO 820 3186 C 3 187 GOTO(1,2,3,4,5,6),IS 3188 C 1 WRITE(6,1O1)POL(1,L),P0L(2,L),P0L(4,L),TOP(1),P0L(6 3189 3190 GOTO 800 3191 2 WRITE(6,102)P0L(1,L),POL(3,L),POL(4,L),TOP(1),P0L(6 3192 GOTO 800 3193 3 WRITE(6,101)POL(1,L),P0L(2,L),POL(5,L),TOP( 2) ,P0L(6 3194 GOTO 800 3195 4 WRITE(6,102)POL(1,L),P0L(3,L),P0L(5,L),T0P(2),P0L(6 3196 GOTO 800 3197 5 WRITE(6,101)P0L(1,L),P0L(2,L),P0L(5,L),T0P(3),P0L(6 3198 GOTO 800 3199 6 WRITE(6,102)P0L(1,L),POL(3,L),POL(5,L),TOP(3),POL(6 3200 GOTO 800 3201 C 810 WRITE(6,110)(POL(I,L),1 = 1,4),P0L(6,L),P0L(7, L) 3202 3203 GOTO 800 3204 C .. c o n s t r a i n e d MINIMUM o p t i o n 3205 820 WRITE(6, 120)(CON(I,IS),I = 1,3),POL(1,L),POL(2 , L) 3206 C 3207 800 IF(P0L(10,L).LT.5OOO.)WRITE(6,111)POL ( 10, L) 3208 RETURN 3209 C 3210 101 FORMATC SUB=',F6.4, ' * ( ' ,F8.2, '*P*Q-' ,F6.4,A8, ' :Y 321 1 * .'/MONTH :MINQ=',F5.0) 3212 102 FORMATC SUB=' ,F6.4, ' * ( ' ,F8.2,4X, '-' ,F6 . 4,A8, ' :Y 857 SECTION A5: POLICY SIMULATION RESULTS T h i s s e c t i o n p r o v i d e s a b r i e f overview of the means by which the s i m u l a t i o n r e s u l t s r e f e r e n c e d i n the t h e s i s are d e r i v e d . Matching s e t s of s i m u l a t i o n s have been performed with both models although the main r e f e r e n c e s i n the t e x t are to those o b t a i n e d using the MODIFIED V e r s i o n of the model. The presented t a b l e s i n v o l v e simple summary s t a t i s t i c s d e r i v e d from the summary t a b l e s c r e a t e d by the s i m u l a t i o n programs. A5.01 S i m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s : Impact of Subsidy L e v e l The p o l i c y s i m u l a t i o n s used i n the t h e s i s are based on s i t u a t i o n s i n v o l v i n g s u p p o r t i n g a minimum standard of housing i n the i n d i v i d u a l markets. Obviously the l e v e l of t h i s minimum standard has a l a r g e impact on the r e q u i r e d subsidy b i l l and p a r t i c i p a t i o n l e v e l s . In order to attempt to provide a r e l a t i v e l y constant l e v e l of i n t e r v e n t i o n across the e i g h t s e l e c t e d CMAs the supported l e v e l has been set as a f u n c t i o n of the minimum q u a n t i t y of "housing" s e r v i c e s a v a i l a b l e from a new d w e l l i n g . A u n i t of "housing" s e r v i c e does not represent the same amount of housing a c r o s s the CMAs with the "poorer" CMAs t y p i c a l l y r e f l e c t i n g higher mean q u a n t i t i e s and lower p r i c e s with the " r i c h e r " CMAs the rev e r s e and consequently the supported q u a n t i t y w i l l f l u c t u a t e . The s i m u l a t i o n output d e r i v e d which i s of i n t e r e s t to t h i s study i s best represented by a c t u a l subsidy c o s t s and measures of the changes i n consumption l e v e l s r e s u l t i n g from the i n t e r v e n t i o n . The s i m u l a t i o n MODELS u t i l i z e a monthly i n t e r v a l with housing expenditures based on the household's monthly income. The re p o r t e d 858 "subsidy amount" thus r e f l e c t s the expected 1971 monthly c o s t of suppor t i n g the l e v e l of housing consumption of 100 r e p r e s e n t a t i v e households from the i n d i v i d u a l CMAs. T o t a l 1971 annual c o s t s f o r the CMAs are d e r i v e d by f a c t o r i n g f i r s t l y to an annual amount, then by f a c t o r i n g i n the r a t i o of a c t u a l households to "model" households f o r the r e s p e c t i v e CMA These r a t i o s , with an i n d i c a t e d range of 165 through 3455, are presented i n Table A5.01. Calgary K i t c h e n e r Quebec C i t y S t . John's 1211. 665. 1271. 287. Saskatoon Sudbury Vancouver Winnipeg 386. 165. 3455. 1665. Table A5.01 R a t i o of A c t u a l Households to Model Households. The i n c l u d e d " e f f i c i e n c y " f a c t o r s are as d e f i n e d by C a r l t o n and F e r r i e r a (1975) and re s p r e s e n t a c o s t - s t a n d a r d i s e d measure of the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing s e v i c e s consumed. The i n d i c a t e d normal range f o r these c o e f f i c i e n t s i s from zero, when there i s no change i n the q u a n t i t y consumed, to approximately 2.0 when the s e l e c t e d group spend t h e i r e n t i r e subsidy on housing and p r i c e s remain unchanged. C o e f f i c i e n t s l e s s than zero i n d i c a t e a d e c l i n e i n the q u a n t i t y of housing s e r v i c e s consumed: e i t h e r as a r e s u l t of simulated p r i c e i n f l a t i o n or a household's being f o r c e d from the market by a lack of s u i t a b l e e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s . C o e f f i c i e n t s g r e a t e r than 2.0 t y p i c a l l y i n d i c a t e that households have been f o r c e d to reduce t h e i r consumption of other goods and s e r v i c e s to supplement t h e i r expenditure on housing. T y p i c a l subsidy o p e r a t i o n s w i l l r e f l e c t " e f f i c i e n c y " c o e f f i c i e n t s in the range of 0.0 to 1.0. Whereas the " e f f i c i e n c y " c o e f f i c i e n t s r e f l e c t 859 changes i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed, the "earmarking" c o e f f i c i e n t s i n d i c a t e changes i n a c t u a l expenditures on housing by the r e c i p i e n t s . These c o e f f i c i e n t s are computed as the percentage r a t i o of the in c r e a s e i n expenditure on housing made by the r e c i p i e n t s to the t o t a l subsidy amount. Under a supported minimum q u a n t i t y s c e n a r i o these r a t i o s w i l l range from approximately 10%, fo r extremely i n e f f i c i e n t p o l i c i e s , to w e l l i n excess of 100% when a r e c i p i e n t c h o i c e i s c o n s t r a i n e d . The f o l l o w i n g Tables r e p o r t c o s t and e f f i c i e n c y f a c t o r s on a CMA b a s i s f i r s t l y f o r the ORIGINAL MODEL then f o r the MODIFIED MODEL f o r s i m u l a t i o n s that r e f l e c t v a r i o u s l e v e l s of i n t e r v e n t i o n s p e c i f i e d as a percent of the r e s p e c t i v e minimum q u a n t i t i e s of new c o n s t r u c t i o n . 860 Subsidy Level:85% QN Model:ORIGINAL e f f i c i e n c y p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] coef f i c i e n t s income 2 228.5 1 14.2 0.013 0.240 1 9.92 i n k i n d 2 70. 1 35.0 0.042 0.781 64.93 c o n s t r a i n e d 2 39.9 19.9 0.073 1 .372 114.08 q u a n t i t y 2 34.9 17.4 0.084 1 .569 130.43 expenditure 2 45. 1 22.5 0.065 1.214 100.93 p r i c e 2 48.4 24.2 0.060 1.131 94.05 minimum q u a n t i t y : 42.80 Subsidy Level:99% QN Model:ORIGINAL ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] subs[2] coef f i c i e n t s income 5 518.1 1 03.6 0.045 0.173 26.66 i n k i n d 5 275.3 55. 1 0.084 0.326 50. 17 c o n s t r a i n e d 5 113.0 22.6 0.205 0.794 122.23 q u a n t i t y 5 97.3 19.5 0.238 0.923 141.95 expenditure 5 1 32.4 26.5 0. 1 75 0.678 104.32 p r i c e 5 1 52.9 30.6 0.151 0.587 90.33 minimum q u a n t i t y : 49.80 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 ORIGINAL MODEL: Simu l a t i o n R e s u l t s [Calgary] 861 Subsidy Level:100% QN Model:ORIGINAL ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average a l l [ l 3 subs[2] earmarking op t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy coef f i c i e n t s income 5 539.0 107.8 0.047 0. 178 25.18 i n k i n d 5 285.2 57.0 0.089 0.336 47.59 c o n s t r a i n e d 5 66.5 13.3 0.382 1.801 219.83 q u a n t i t y 5 95. 1 19.0 0.267 1 .006 142.72 expenditure 5 101.8 20.4 0.250 0.940 143.60 p r i c e 5 102.8 20.6 0.247 0.931 142.20 minimum q u a n t i t y : 50.30 Subsidy Level:115% QN Model:ORIGINAL ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average a l l [ 1 ] subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount .subsidy coef f i c i e n t s income 9 1034.4 114.9 0.072 0. 187 27.37 i n k i n d 9 574.7 63.9 0. 129 0.336 49.26 c o n s t r a i n e d 9 1 29.0 14.3 0.577 1 .497 233. 17 q u a n t i t y 9 205.9 22.9 0.361 0.938 137.49 expenditure 9 213.2 23.7 0.349 0.906 137.85 p r i c e 9 213.9 23.8 0.348 0.903 140.62 minimum q u a n t i t y : 57.80 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 ORIGINAL MODEL: S i m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [Calgary] 862 Subsidy Le v e l : 8 5 % QN Model:ORIGINAL e f f i c i e n c y p o l i c y number subsidy average earmarking op t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ l ] subs[2] coef f i c i e n t s income 8 772.3 96.5 0.070 0.174 24.00 i n k i n d 8 418.3 52.3 0.1 30 0.321 44.31 c o n s t r a i n e d 8 149.5 18.7 0.363 0.899 123.99 q u a n t i t y 8 131.4 16.4 0.412 1 .023 141.07 expenditure 8 183.9 23.0 0.295 0.731 100.80 p r i c e 8 219.2 27.4 0.247 0.613 84.56 minimum q u a n t i t y : 52.90 Subsidy Level:99% < QN Model:ORIGINAL ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2 ] earmark ing o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] c o e f f i c i e n t s income 12 1844.8 1 53.7 0.080 0.1 68 28.52 i n k i n d 12 1027.9 85.7 0. 1 43 0.301 51.18 c o n s t r a i n e d 12 436.8 36.4 0.336 0.708 120.44 q u a n t i t y 12 378.4 31.5 0.388 0.818 139.03 expenditure 12 525.9 43.8 0.279 0.588 100.04 p r i c e 12 625.0 52.1 0.235 0.495 84. 18 minimum q u a n t i t y : 61.58 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 ORIGINAL MODEL: Si m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [ K i t c h e n e r ] 863 Subsidy Level:100% QN Model:ORIGINAL p o l i c y number op t i o n r e c i p i e n t s subsidy amount average subsidy e f f i c i e n c y earmarking c o e f f i c i e n t s a l l [ 1 ] subs[2] income 13 i n k i n d 13 c o n s t r a i n e d 13 q u a n t i t y 13 expenditure 13 p r i c e 13 1766.4 954.5 202.7 328.3 338.5 337.0 1 35.9 73.4 15.6 25.3 26.0 25.9 0.088 0. 163 0.769 0.475 0.460 0.462 0. 182 0.336 1 .583 0.978 0.948 0.952 25.29 46.80 227. 14 136.08 134. 18 136.62 minimum q u a n t i t y : 62.20 Subsidy Level:115% QN Model:ORIGINAL p o l i c y number o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s subsidy amount average subsidy ef f i c iency earmarking c o e f f i c i e n t s a l l [ 1 ] subs[2] income 20 i n k i n d 20 c o n s t r a i n e d 20 q u a n t i t y 20 expenditure 20 p r i c e 20 3111.2 1668.5 350.7 578.2 579. 1 579. 1 1 55.6 83.4 17.5 28.9 29.0 29.0 0. 102 0. 1 90 0.905 0.549 0.548 0.548 0. 184 0.342 1 .629 0.988 0.986 0.986 23.64 44.09 210.49 127.22 127.47 127.47 minimum q u a n t i t y : 71.58 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change in the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 ORIGINAL MODEL: Simu l a t i o n R e s u l t s [ K i t c h e n e r ] 864 Subsidy Le v e l : 8 5 % QN Model:ORIGINAL ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ l ] subs[2] c o e f f i c i e n t s income 5 482.4 96.5 . 0.132 0.269 17.13 i n k i n d 5 251 .3 50.3 0.207 0.517 47.59 c o n s t r a i n e d 5 99.0 19.8 0.525 1.313 120.80 q u a n t i t y 5 100.4 20. 1 0.517 1 .295 119.11 expenditure 5 85.4 17.1 0.745 1 .522 96.77 p r i c e 5 93.6 18.7 0.680 1 .389 88.29 minimum q u a n t i t y : 37.90 Subsidy Level:99% QN Model:ORIGINAL ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] c o e f f i e i e n t s income 9 1230.7 1 36.7 0.087 0. 1 94 22.83 i n k i n d 8 483.5 60.4 0.237 0.507 46.09 c o n s t r a i n e d 9 228.0 25.3 0.454. 1 .047 123.23 q u a n t i t y 8 186.6 23.3 0.606 1.313 119.44 expenditure 9 280. 1 31.1 0.369 0.852 100.31 p r i c e 8 253.3 31.7 0.447 0.967 87.99 minimum q u a n t i t y : 44. 1 5 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 ORIGINAL MODEL: S i m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [Quebec C i t y ] 865 Subsidy Level:100% QN Model:ORIGINAL ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average a l l [ 1 ] subs[2] earmarking op t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy c o e f f i c i e n t s income 10 1149.6 115.0 0.054 0.209 20.09 i n k i n d 10 554.7 55.5 0.121 0.433 41 .55 c o n s t r a i n e d 10 91 .5 9. 1 0.593 2.626 255.91 q u a n t i t y 9 180.9 20. 1 0.469 1 .391 122.83 expenditure 10 187.7 19.0 0.287 1 .267 123.44 p r i c e 10 190.0 19.0 0.283 1 .265 123.24 minimum q u a n t i t y : 44.60 Subsidy Level:115% QN Model:ORIGINAL ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmarking op t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] coef f i c i e n t s income 17 1954.1 114.9 0.079 0.202 20.04 i n k i n d 17 968.4 57.0 0. 1 53 0.407 40.43 c o n s t r a i n e d 17 1 57.4 9.3 0.668 2.503 266.46 q u a n t i t y 17 321 .3 18.9 0.467 1 .226 1 21.86 expenditure 17 334.6 19.7 0.359 1 . 178 120.45 p r i c e 17 335.8 19.8 0.354 1.173 120.02 minimum q u a n t i t y : 51.30 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 ORIGINAL MODEL: Si m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [Quebec C i t y ] 866 Subsidy Level:85% QN Model:ORIGINAL ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmarking opt ion rec i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] c o e f f i c i e n t s income 4 973.6 243.4 -0.553 0.074 20.67 i n k i n d 4 328.8 82.3 -1 .692 0.219 61 .21 c o n s t r a i n e d 4 157.2 39.3 -3.537 0.458 128.02 q u a n t i t y 6 255.5 42.6 0.116 0.934 101.78 expenditure 4 199.7 49.9 -2.744 0.361 100.78 p r i c e 4 201 .7 50.4 -2.699 0.357 99.78 ' minimum q u a n t i t y : 29.00 Subsidy Level:99% QN Model:ORIGINAL e f f i c i e n c y p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmarking opt ion rec i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] coef f i c i e n t s income 6 1896.6 316.1 -0.270 0.064 20. 10 i n k i n d 6 596.6 99.4 -0.859 0.203 63.89 c o n s t r a i n e d 6 309.7 51 .6 -1.655 0.392 123.08 q u a n t i t y 7 403.7 57.7 -0.762 0.507 101.92 expendi t u r e 6 380.2 63.4 -1.348 0.319 100.26 p r i c e 6 383. 1 63.8 -1.337 0.317 99.50 minimum q u a n t i t y : 33.76 note: o p t i o n ( s ) with households NOT a l l o c a t e d q u a n t i t y :1 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 ORIGINAL MODEL: S i m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [ S t . Johns] 867 Subsidy Level:100% QN Model:ORIGINAL ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] c o e f f i c i e n t s income 8 887.6 110.9 -0.501 0.363 15.80 i n k i n d 9 330.6 36.7 -1.353 0.896 42.71 c o n s t r a i n e d 7 59.3 8.5 -7.541 6.063 232.14 q u a n t i t y 8 1 38.6 17.3 -3.208 2.328 101.21 expenditure 9 1 39.2 15.5 -3.213 2. 128 101 .43 p r i c e 9 1 39.2 15.5 -3.213 2. 128 101.43 minimum q u a n t i t y : 34. 10 Subsidy Level:115% QN Model:ORIGINAL ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] c o e f f i c i e n t s income 10 1298.8 1 29.9 -0.297 0.349 16.01 i n k i n d 10 495.7 49.6 -0.779 0.914 41 .95 c o n s t r a i n e d 10 86.7 8.7 -4.454 5.224 239.85 q u a n t i t y 10 205.7 20.6 -1 .877 2.202 101.09 expenditure 10 205.7 20.6 -1 .877 2.202 101.09 p r i c e 10 205.7 20.6 -1.877 2.202 101.09 minimum q u a n t i t y : 39.20 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 ORIGINAL MODEL: S i m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [St. Johns] 868 Subsidy Level:85% QN Model:ORIGINAL p o l i c y number op t i o n r e c i p i e n t s subsidy amount average subsidy e f f i c iency earmarking c o e f f i c i e n t s a l l [ 1 ] subs[2] income 4 i n k i n d 4 c o n s t r a i n e d 4 q u a n t i t y 4 expenditure 4 p r i c e 4 403.2 241 .8 98.6 102.0 1 27. 1 148.0 100.8 60.4 24.6 25.6 31.8 37.0 0.073 0.1 34 0.451 0.433 0.349 0.300 0.303 0.505 1 .238 1.191 0.960 0.825 32.08 53.50 131.20 126.20 101 .78 87.40 minimum q u a n t i t y : 40. 1 0 Subsidy Level:99% QN Model:ORIGINAL p o l i c y number op t i o n r e c i p i e n t s subsidy amount average subsidy ef f i c iency earmarking coef f i c i e n t s a l l [ l ] subs[2] income 6 i n k i n d 6 c o n s t r a i n e d 6 q u a n t i t y 6 expenditure 6 p r i c e 6 758.5 468.8 211.2 212.2 260.7 299.0 126.4 78.1 35.2 v 35.4 43.4 49.8 0.104 0. 168 0.364 0.372 0.296 0.264 0.267 0.433 0.961 0.956 0.778 0.678 34.74 56.20 124.75 124. 16 101.06 88. 1 2 minimum q u a n t i t y : 46.73 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 ORIGINAL MODEL: Simu l a t i o n R e s u l t s [Saskatoon] 869 Subsidy Level:100% QN Model:ORIGINAL p o l i c y number o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s subsidy amount average subsidy e f f i c i e n c y earmarking c o e f f i c i e n t s a l l [ 1 ] subs[2] income 7 i n k i n d 8 c o n s t r a i n e d 6 q u a n t i t y 7 expenditure 7 p r i c e 7 492.3 286.5 46.5 99.4 101.7 101.7 70.3 35.8 4.9 14.2 14.5 14.4 0.1 00 0.1 77 1 .094 0.481 0.469 0.473 0.410 0.681 4.548 2.029 1 .983 1 .995 21.01 36. 1 6 225.80 1 04.05 101.69 104.12 minimum q u a n t i t y : 47.20 Subsidy Level:115% QN Model:ORIGINAL p o l i c y number o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s subsidy amount average subsidy ef f i c iency earmarking coef f i c i e n t s a l l [ 1 ] subs[2] income 13 i n k i n d 13 c o n s t r a i n e d 13 q u a n t i t y 13 expenditure 13 p r i c e 13 985.9 652.5 88.6 203.2 205.4 204.6 75.8 50.2 6.8 15.6 15.8 15.7 0.112 0. 1 72 1 .248 0.577 0.494 0.516 0.338 0.511 3.760 1 .640 1 .622 1 .628 22.06 33.33 250.09 107.01 105.87 106.92 minimum q u a n t i t y : 54.30 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 ORIGINAL MODEL: Si m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [Saskatoon] 870 Subsidy Level:85% QN Model:ORIGINAL e f f i c i e n c y p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmarking opt ion rec i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l M ] c o e f f i c i e n t s income 2 235.8 117.9 -0.150 0. 168 1 4.34 i n k i n d 2 77.0 38.5 -0.458 0.515 43.90 c o n s t r a i n e d 2 24. 1 12.0 -1.465 1 .646 140.27 quant i t y 2 26. 1 13.0 -1.353 1 .520 129.52 expenditure 2 32.2 16.1 -1.096 1 .232 104.98 pr i c e 2 36.5 18.2 -0.967 1 .087 92.62 minimum q u a n t i t y : 28.40 Subsidy Level:99% QN Model:ORIGINAL ef f i c iency p o l i c y number. subsidy average subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] coef f i c i e n t s income 5 544.5 1 08.9 -0.024 0. 1 53 16.86 i n k i n d 5 231 .2 46.2 -0.056 0.359 39.72 c o n s t r a i n e d 5 66. 1 13.2 -0. 194 1 .256 138.92 q u a n t i t y 5 71.1 14.2 -0.181 1 . 1 68 129.15 expenditure 5 88.3 17.7 -0. 146 0.940 103.99 p r i c e 5 101.8 20.4 -0.126 0.816 90.20 minimum q u a n t i t y : 33.07 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 ORIGINAL MODEL: Si m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [Sudbury] 871 Subsidy Level:100% QN Model:ORIGINAL ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmark ing o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] coef f i c i e n t s income 5 563.2 112.6 -0.018 0. 1 60 16.87 i n k i n d 5 243. 1 48.6 -0.042 0.371 39.09 c o n s t r a i n e d 5 37.7 7.5 -0.269 2.390 307.59 q u a n t i t y 5 73.4 14.7 -0.138 1 .228 129.45 expenditure 5 78.8 15.8 -0.128 1.143 123.76 p r i c e 5 83.2 16.6 -0.122 1 .083 117.22 minimum q u a n t i t y : 33.40 Subsidy Level:115% QN Model:ORIGINAL ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average a l l [ 1 ] subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy coef f i c i e n t s income 9 1 104.2 1 22.7 0.034 0. 1 57 17.66 i n k i n d 9 464.5 51.6 0.081 0.374 41 .99 c o n s t r a i n e d 9 69.9 7.8 0.536 2.484 305.85 q u a n t i t y 9 151.1 16.8 0.248 1 . 1 49 129.09 expenditure 9 1 57.4 17.5 0.238 1.103 123.92 p r i c e 9 1 59.9 17.8 0.234 1 .086 124.99 minimum q u a n t i t y : 38.40 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change in the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change in the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 ORIGINAL MODEL: Simu l a t i o n R e s u l t s [Sudbury] 872 Subsidy Level:85% QN Model:ORIGINAL e f f i c i e n c y earmarking p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l f l ] c o e f f i c i e n t s income 7 511.7 73. 1 0.069 0.219 30.53 i n k i n d 7 410.4 58.6 0.084 0.273 38.06 c o n s t r a i n e d 7 113.2 16.2 0.314 0.988 138.00 q u a n t i t y 7 121.9 17.4 0.291 0.918 128.15 expenditure 7 1 53.5 21.9 0.218 0.729 101.77 p r i c e 7 1 79.8 25.7 0. 192 0.622 86.88 minimum q u a n t i t y : 48.20 Subsidy Level:99% QN Model:ORIGINAL ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] coef f i c i e n t s income 11 1263.6 114.9 0.078 0. 189 ' 30.91 i n k i n d 11 852.7 77.5 0.114 0.280 45.81 c o n s t r a i n e d 11 296.4 26.9 0.351 0.805 131.78 q u a n t i t y 11 310.5 28.2 0.314 0.768 125.80 expenditure 11 386.2 35. 1 0.252 0.618 101.14 pr i c e 11 444.7 40.4 0.234 0.537 87.83 minimum q u a n t i t y : 56.13 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 ORIGINAL MODEL: S i m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [Vancouver] 873 Subsidy Level:100% QN Model:ORIGINAL ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmarking op t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] c o e f f i c i e n t s income 11 1186.2 107.8 0.039 0.213 25.34 i n k i n d 11 753.8 68.5 0.056 0.336 39.88 c o n s t r a i n e d 11 103.2 9.4 0.421 2.451 296.15 q u a n t i t y 11 244.4 22.2 0. 187 1 .035 122.99 expenditure 11 247.5 22.5 0. 1 33 1 .022 121.72 p r i c e 1 1 247.6 22.5 0. 1 34 1 .022 123.44 minimum q u a n t i t y : 56.70 Subsidy Level:115% QN Model:ORIGINAL ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmarking option r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] coef f i c i e n t s income 18 2253.7 .1 25.2 0.051 0.200 24.71 i n k i n d 18 1418.0 78.8 0.063 0.318 39.48 c o n s t r a i n e d 18 204.0 11.3 0.419 2.212 274.93 q u a n t i t y 17 463.0 27.2 0.249 0.996 119.31 expenditure 18 466.9 25.9 0. 1 57 0.966 120.13 p r i c e 18 466.9 25.9 0. 1 67 0.966 120. 13 minimum q u a n t i t y : 65.20 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 ORIGINAL MODEL: Si m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [Vancouver] 874 Subsidy Level:85% QN Model:ORIGINAL ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average a l l [ l ] subs[2] earmarking op t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy coef f i c i e n t s income 7 1075.8 1 53.7 0.1 06 0.252 18.28 i n k i n d 7 366.8 52.4 0.308 0.739 53.60 c o n s t r a i n e d 8 195. 1 24.4 0.514 1 .328 121.14 q u a n t i t y 8 192.3 24.0 0.522 1 .347 122.90 expenditure 7 193.8 27.7 0.577 1 .399 101.46 p r i c e " 7 207. 1 29.6 0.540 1.310 94.94 •minimum q u a n t i t y : 46.40 Subsidy Level:99% QN Model:ORIGINAL ef f i c iency earmarking p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] coef f i c i e n t s income 11 2297.3 208.8 0.080 0. 184 23.46 i n k i n d 11 881 .6 80. 1 0.218 0.478 53.89 c o n s t r a i n e d 11 454. 1 41.3 0.407 0.929 118.68 quant i t y 11 392.2 35.7 0.491 1 .075 121.13 expenditure 11 531 .5 48.3 0.348 0.793 101.39 p r i c e 11 509.6 46.3 0.378 0.827 93.23 minimum q u a n t i t y : 54.05 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 ORIGINAL MODEL: Si m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [Winnipeg] 875 Subsidy Level-.100% QN Model:ORIGINAL . e f f i c i e n c y p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] c o e f f i c i e n t s income 15 2224.6 1 48.3 0.022 0. 175 21 .62 i n k i n d 15 955.2 63.7 0.032 0.407 51.17 c o n s t r a i n e d 16 206. 1 12.9 -0.043 1.813 245.70 q u a n t i t y 15 379.3 25.3 0. 138 1 .026 126.77 expenditure 15 387. 1 25.8 0.067 1 .005 126.28 p r i c e 16 391 .2 24.4 -0.003 0.955 128.53 minimum q u a n t i t y : 54.60 Subsidy Level:115% QN Model:ORIGINAL ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] coef f i c i e n t s income 25 3777.9 151.1 0.036 0.161 21 .92 i n k i n d 25 1804.5 72.2 0.072 0.336 45.89 c o n s t r a i n e d 25 335.3 13.4 0.359 1 .809 248. 19 q u a n t i t y 25 661 .4 26.5 0.174 0.917 125.82 expenditure 25 661 .4 26.5 0. 1 78 0.917 125.82 p r i c e 25 661 .4 26.5 0.176 0.917 125.82 minimum q u a n t i t y : 62.80 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 ORIGINAL MODEL: Si m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s ' [Winnipeg] 876 Subsidy Level:85% QN Model-.MODIFIED ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 3 subs[2 3 coef f i c i e n t s income 2 230.4 115.2 0.087 0.278 29.13 i n k i n d 2 146.0 73.0 0. 137 0.438 45.97 c o n s t r a i n e d 2 18.4 9.2 1 .086 3.477 364.74 q u a n t i t y 2 76.5 38.2 0.261 0.836 87.73 expenditure 2 67. 1 33.5 0.298 0.953 100.02 p r i c e 2 58.2 29. 1 0.343 1 .099 115.31 minimum q u a n t i t y : 42.50 46.75 Subsidy Level:99% QN Model:MODIFIED ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 3 subs[2] coef f i c i e n t s income 4 1115.2 278.8 0.032 0.079 11.17 i n k i n d 4 233.1 58.3 0. 1 53 0.380 53.46 c o n s t r a i n e d 4 44.3 11.1 0.806 1 .998 201 .30 q u a n t i t y 4 140.2 35.0 0.255 0.631 88.88 expenditure 4 124.3 31.1 0.287 0.712 100.25 p r i c e 4 112.0 28.0 0.318 0.790 112.50 minimum q u a n t i t y : 49.50 54.60 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change in the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 MODIFIED MODEL: Si m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [Calgary] 877 Subsidy Level:100% QN Model:MODIFIED ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] subs[2] coef f i c i e n t s income 5 253.8 50.8 0. 1 30 0.339 39.65 i n k i n d 5 231 .9 46.4 0. 1 42 0.371 43.40 c o n s t r a i n e d 5 15.2 3.0 1 .979 5.654 678.87 q u a n t i t y 5 114.4 22.9 0.288 0.751 87.97 expenditure 5 110.3 22. 1 0.298 0.779 91 .24 p r i c e 5 85.4 17.1 0.385 1 .006 1 17.84 minimum q u a n t i t y : 50.00 55.00 Subsidy Level:115% QN Model:MODIFIED ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] coef f i c i e n t s income 8 672.8 84.1 0.116 0.251 33.28 i n k i n d 8 584.7 73.1 0. 1 33 0.289 38.29 c o n s t r a i n e d 8 38.0 4.8 2.101 4.423 634.25 q u a n t i t y 8 257.3 32.2 0.303 0.657 87.02 expenditure 8 238.2 29.8 0.327 0.709 93.99 p r i c e 8 191.3 23.9 0.398 0.883 1 17.04 minimum q u a n t i t y : 57.50 63.25 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 MODIFIED MODEL: Si m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [Calgary] 878 Subsidy Level:85% QN Model:MODIFIED ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] coef f i c i e n t s income 2 1 29.4 64.7 0.214 0.736 41 .02 i n k i n d 2 123.5 61 .8 0.224 0.771 42.98 c o n s t r a i n e d 3 52.9 17.6 1 .968 2.884 296.00 q u a n t i t y 2 56.7 28.3 0.370 1 .680 93.61 expenditure -2 61 .0 30.5 1.319 1 .561 101.95 p r i c e 2 42.8 21.4 0.647 2.225 124.01 minimum q u a n t i t y : 43.40 62.90 Subsidy L e v e l : 9 9 % QN Model-.MODIFIED ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average a l l [ 1 ]. subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy coef f i c i e n t s income 5 373.3 74.7 0. 1 60 0.324 37.96 i n k i n d 5 345.2 69.0 0. 173 0.351 41 .05 c o n s t r a i n e d 8 1 35.4 16.9 0.366 1 .606 250.82 q u a n t i t y 5 205.8 41 .2 0.345 0.588 86. 1 3 expenditure 5 1 66.0 33.2 0.396 0.729 99.96 p r i c e 5 118.0 23.6 0.545 1 .026 120. 10 minimum q u a n t i t y : 50.50 73.30 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 MODIFIED MODEL: Si m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [ K i t c h e n e r ] 879 Subsidy Level:100% QN Model:MODIFIED e f f i c i e n c y p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] coef f i c i e n t s income 5 431 .8 86.4 0.153 0.294 37.04 i n k i n d 5 377.0 75.4 0. 175 0.337 42.43 c o n s t r a i n e d 14 103.0 7.4 1 .865 2.491 421.29 q u a n t i t y 6 207.2 34.5 0.359 0.540 85.56 expenditure 6 186. 1 31 .0 0.333 0.601 95.09 p r i c e 5 134.9 27.0 0.501 0.942 118.57 minimum q u a n t i t y : 51 .00 74.00 Subsidy Level:115% QN Model:MODIFIED ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] subs[2] c o e f f i c i e n t s income ' 25 8009.7 320.4 0.035 0.030 1 1 .73 i n k i n d 25 3997.9 159.9 0.070 0.061 23.50 c o n s t r a i n e d 44 225. 1 5.1 2.380 2.236 516.45 q u a n t i t y 26 913.8 35. 1 0.308 0.267 81 .06 expenditure 21 844.6 40.2 0.369 0.320 87.96 p r i c e 25 896.8 35.9 0.314 0.271 104.74 minimum q u a n t i t y : 58.60 85. 10 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 MODIFIED MODEL: Si m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [Ki tchener] 880 Subsidy Level:85% QN Model:MODIFIED e f f i c i e n c y p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ l ] c o e f f i c i e n t s income 5 331 .3 66.3 0. 167 0.448 ' 36.67 i n k i n d 5 257.5 51 .5 0.215 0.576 47. 18 c o n s t r a i n e d 5 50.5 10.1 1 .1 08 2.937 283.82 q u a n t i t y 5 159.9 32.0 0.350 0.927 89.64 expenditure 5 1 42.8 28.6 0.392 1 .039 100.37 p r i c e 5 103.7 20.7 0.533 1 .430 117.16 minimum q u a n t i t y : 44.20 68.00 Subsidy Level:99% QN Model:MODIFIED e f f i c i e n c y p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] coef f i c i e n t s income 8 720.9 90.1 0. 1 46 0.325 35.28 i n k i n d 8 532.5 66.5 0. 198 0.440 47.78 c o n s t r a i n e d 8 1 03. 1 12.9 1 .019 2.273 275.48 q u a n t i t y 8 319.5 39.9 0.329 0.734 88.89 expenditure 8 284.4 35.5 0.370 0.824 99.86 p r i c e 8 220.2 27.5 0.480 1 .064 115.51 minimum q u a n t i t y : 51 .50 79.20 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 MODIFIED MODEL: Si m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [Quebec C i t y ] 881 Subsidy Level:100% QN Model:MODIFIED p o l i c y number opt i o n r e c i p i e n t s subsidy amount average subsidy e f f i c i e n c y earmarking c o e f f i c i e n t s a l l [ l ] subs[2] income 8 i n k i n d 8 c o n s t r a i n e d 8 q u a n t i t y 8 expenditure 8 p r i c e 8 795.2 586.8 74.7 314.6 284.4 241 .5 99.4 73.3 9.3 39.3 35.5 30.2 0. 123 0. 167 1 .288 0.356 0.393 0.406 0.308 0.417 3.274 0.777 0.860 1.013 34.86 47.24 387.73 88. 1 1 98.05 114.78 minimum q u a n t i t y : 52.00 80.00 Subsidy Level:115% QN Model:MODIFIED p o l i c y number opt i o n r e c i p i e n t s subsidy amount average subsidy e f f i c i e n c y earmarking coef f i c i e n t s a l l [ 1 ] subs[2] income 15 i n k i n d .15 c o n s t r a i n e d 16 q u a n t i t y 15 expenditure 15 p r i c e 15 2384.4 1649.0 151.6 610.8 580.6 493.2 1 59.0 109.9 9.5 40.7 38.7 32.9 0.088 0. 127 1 .331 0.339 0.356 0.424 0. 1 44 0.208 2. 187 0.561 0.590 0.695 23.34 33.75 360.13 85.37 91 .85 1 12.85 minimum q u a n t i t y : 59.80 92.00 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 MODIFIED MODEL: Si m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [Quebec C i t y ] 882 Subsidy Level:85% QN 'Model:MODIFIED e f f i c i e n c y p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] c o e f f i c i e n t s income 5 599.0 1 19.8 0. 1 64 0.481 37.38 i n k i n d 5 431 .4 86.3 0.227 0.668 51.91 c o n s t r a i n e d 4 50.5 12.6 -0.058 2.210 258.01 q u a n t i t y 4 1 50.7 37.7 -0.020 0.741 85.72 expenditure 4 126.5 31.6 -0.023 0.882 103.00 p r i c e 5 180.7 36. 1 0.542 1 .595 123.92 minimum q u a n t i t y : 56.90 65.50 note: o p t i o n ( s ) with households NOT a l l o c a t e d c onstrained:2 q u a n t i t y :2 e x p e n d i t u r e ^ Subsidy Level:99% QN Model:MODIFIED ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average a l l [ 1 ] subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy c o e f f i c i e n t s income 8 2186.8 273.3 0.061 0. 164 18.92 i n k i n d 8 810.4 101.3 0. 1 63 0.443 51 .06 c o n s t r a ined 6 124. 1 20.7 0.275 1 .455 229. 14 q u a n t i t y 6 246.3 41.0 0.088 0.781 90. 13 expenditure 6 280.0 46.7 0. 122 0.645 101.56 pr i c e 8 352.8 44. 1 0.375 1.018 1 17.29 minimum q u a n t i t y : 66.30 76.20 note: o p t i o n ( s ) with households NOT a l l o c a t e d c onstrained:2 q u a n t i t y :2 e x p e n d i t u r e ^ note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 .MODIFIED MODEL: S i m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [S t . Johns] 883 Subsidy Level:100% QN Model:MODIFIED e f f i c i e n c y p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] coef f i c i e n t s income 10 1006.2 1 00.6 0.119 0.305 36.70 i n k i n d 10 770. 1 77.0 0.1 55 0.398 47.95 c o n s t r a i n e d 10 211.9 21.2 0.560 1 .447 179.78 q u a n t i t y 10 400.2 40.0 0.298 0.766 92.27 expenditure 10 372.0 37.2 0.321 0.825 98.52 p r i c e 10 311.6 31.2 0.383 0.984 118.51 minimum q u a n t i t y : 67.00 77.00 Subsidy Level:115% QN Model:MODIFIED ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] subs[2] c o e f f i c i e n t s income 16 2398.2 149.9 0.097 0.202 27. 1 4 i n k i n d 16 1884.0 117.7 0. 1 24 0.258 39.49 c o n s t r a i n e d 14 303.4 21.7 0.763 1 .624 212.78 q u a n t i t y 16 704.9 44. 1 0.330 0.688 92.32 expenditure 16 700.0 43.7 0.335 0.693 94.96 p r i c e 16 593. 1 37. 1 0.395 0.818 116.19 minimum q u a n t i t y : 77.00 88.60 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 MODIFIED MODEL: Si m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [St. Johns] 884 Subsidy Level:85% QN Model:MODIFIED ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] coef f i c i e n t s income 5 1 74.4 34.9 0. 190 0.424 39.22 i n k i n d 5 1 68. 1 33.6 0. 1 97 0.440 40.69 c o n s t r a i n e d 5 13.1 2.6 2.525 5.649 522. 13 q u a n t i t y 5 77.3 15.5 0.428 0.957 88.48 expenditure 5 67.8 13.6 0.488 1 .091 100.88 p r i c e 5 56.3 11.3 0.587 1.314 121.58 minimum q u a n t i t y : 48.50 59.50 Subsidy Level:99% QN Model:MODIFIED e f f i c i e n c y p o l i c y number subsidy average earmark ing opt ion rec i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] subs[2] coef f i c i e n t s income 8 517.3 64.7 0. 1 55 0.305 35.47 i n k i n d 8 480.7 60. 1 0. 1 67 0.328 38. 18 c o n s t r a i n e d 7 38.4 5.5 0.341 4.349 434.01 q u a n t i t y 7 183.6 26.2 0.071 0.910 90.77 expenditure 7 161.6 23. 1 0.081 1 .033 103.13 p r i c e 8 1 52. 1 19.0 0.528 1 .037 120.65 minimum q u a n t i t y : 56.40 69.30 note: o p t i o n ( s ) with households NOT a l l o c a t e d c o n s t r a i n e d : ! q u a n t i t y :1 expenditure:! note: [ l ] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 MODIFIED MODEL: Si m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [Saskatoon] 885 Subsidy Level:100% QN Model:MODIFIED e f f i c i e n c y p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] c o e f f i c i e n t s income 8 498.0 62.2 0. 169 0.337 36.88 i n k i n d 8 471 .5 58.9 0.179 0.356 38.95 c o n s t r a i n e d 8 31.8 4.0 2.647 5.271 577. 1 5 q u a n t i t y 8 206. 1 25.8 0.408 0.813 89. 1 1 expenditure 8 191.3 23.9 0.440 0.876 97.57 p r i c e 8 1 50.3 18.8 0.560 1.115 122.19 minimum q u a n t i t y : 57.00 70.00 Subsidy Level:115% QN Model:MODIFIED e f f i c i e n c y p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] coef f i c i e n t s income 15 2048.4 1 36.6 0. 100 0. 1 57 22.22 ' i n k i n d 15 1617.6 1 07.8 0. 126 0. 1 98 28. 1 3 c o n s t r a i n e d 15 76.9 5.1 2.651 4. 1 69 577.79 q u a n t i t y 15 476.8 31.8 0.428 0.672 88.50 expenditure 15 444.8 29.7 0.458 0.721 94.87 p r i c e 15 386.4 25.8 0.528 0.830 117.77 minimum q u a n t i t y : 65.60 80.50 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change in the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 MODIFIED MODEL: Si m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [Saskatoon] 886 Subsidy Level:85% QN Model:MODIFIED e f f i c i e n c y p o l i c y number subsidy average a l l [ l ] subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy coef f i c i e n t s income 2 14.4 7.2 -1.504 0.615 44.74 i n k i n d 2 14.4 7.2 -1 .504 0.615 44.74 c o n s t r a i n e d 1 0.8 0.8 4.728 14.985 996.45 q u a n t i t y 2 6.6 3.3 -3.281 1 .341 97.61 expenditure 2 8.4 4.2 0.450 1 .054 103.59 p r i c e 2 4.6 2.3 -5.996 1 .925 140.04 minimum q u a n t i t y : 38.30 65.50 Subsidy Level:99% QN Model:MODIFIED ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average subs[2] earmarking op t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] coef f i c i e n t s income 4 1 64.0 41.0 -0.012 0.354 36.24 i n k i n d 4 164.0 41.0 -0.012 0.354 36.24 c o n s t r a i n e d 4 7.8 1 .9 0.067 7.438 781.51 q u a n t i t y 4 68. 1 17.0 -0.028 0.852 87.35 expenditure 4 60.7 15.2 0.009 0.956 100.40 p r i c e 4 48.4 12.1 -0.039 1 . 1 99 122.81 minimum q u a n t i t y : 44.60 76.20 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 MODIFIED MODEL: S i m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [Sudbury] 887 Subsidy Level:100% QN Model .-MODIFIED e f f i c i e n c y p o l i c y number subsidy average earmarking option r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ l ] subs[2] c o e f f i c i e n t s income 4 177.7 44.4 -0.001 0.351 36.16 i n k i n d 4 177.7 44.4 -0.001 0.351 36.16 c o n s t r a i n e d 5 14.3 2.9 -5.059 3.810 772.13 q u a n t i t y 4 73.7 18.4 -0.002 0.846 87.26 expenditure 4 65.7 16.4 0.034 0.949 100.14 p r i c e 4 52.4 13.1 -0.003 1.190 122.64 minimum q u a n t i t y : 45.00 77.00 Subsidy Level:115% QN Model:MODIFIED e f f i c i e n c y p o l i c y number subsidy average earmarking option r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ l ] subs[2] c o e f f i c i e n t s income 7 764.8 109.3 0.075 0.143 30.32 i n k i n d 7 703.5 100.5 0.081 0.155 32.96 c o n s t r a i n e d 9 39.8 4.4 -1.496 1.261 672.37 q u a n t i t y 7 282.0 40.3 0.203 0.387 82.24 expenditure 6 191.2 31.9 0.287 0.698 100.42 p r i c e 7 . 204.1 29.2 0.281 0.535 113.60 minimum q u a n t i t y : 51.80 88.60 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 MODIFIED MODEL: S i m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [Sudbury] 888 Subsidy Level:85% QN Model:MODIFIED ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average earmarking op t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] subs[2] c o e f f i c i e n t s income 5 586.2 117.2 0.086 0.232 27. 17 i n k i n d 5 416.6 83.2 0.1 20 0.327 38.23 c o n s t r a i n e d 5 42.0 8.4 1 .195 3.243 379.22 q u a n t i t y 5 182.5 36.5 0.275 0.746 87.27 expenditure 5 1 62.2 32.4 0.309 0.840 98. 19 p r i c e 5 1 38.7 27.7 0.362 0.982 114.83 minimum q u a n t i t y : 55.30 68.00 Subsidy Level:99% QN Model:MODIFIED ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average earmarking op t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] subs[2] c o e f f i c i e n t s income 8 2211.5 276.4 0.042 0.098 14.10 i n k i n d 8 699.9 87.5 0. 1 34 0.311 44.54 c o n s t r a i n e d 8 1 22.4 15.3 0.766 1 .778 254.70 q u a n t i t y 8 353.3 44.2 0.265 0.616 88.24 expenditure 8 315.7 39.5 0.297 0.690 98.75 p r i c e 8 281 .0 35.1 0.334 0.775 110.92 minimum q u a n t i t y : 64.40 79.20 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 MODIFIED MODEL: Si m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [Vancouver] 889 Subsidy Level:100% QN Model:MODIFIED p o l i c y number opt i o n r e c i p i e n t s subsidy amount average subsidy e f f i c i e n c y earmarking c o e f f i c i e n t s a l l [ 1 ] subs[2] income 8 i n k i n d 8 c o n s t r a i n e d 8 q u a n t i t y 8 expenditure 8 p r i c e 8 1581.5 649.8 73.0 280.6 265. 1 218.0 197.7 81.2 9.1 35. 1 33. 1 27.2 0.062 0. 147 1 .068 0.350 0.371 0.439 0. 144 0.350 2.849 0.810 0.857 1 .042 18.74 39.47 332. 14 91.41 97.00 117.66 minimum q u a n t i t y : 65.00 80.00 Subsidy Level:115% QN Model:MODIFIED p o l i c y number opt i o n r e c i p i e n t s subsidy amount average subsidy ef f i c iency earmarking c o e f f i c i e n t s a l l [ 1 ] subs[2] income 18 i n k i n d 18 c o n s t r a i n e d 18 q u a n t i t y 18 expenditure 18 p r i c e 18 4700.8 2100.9 1 53.9 687. 1 663.4 540.7 261 .2 116.7 8.5 38.2 36.9 30.0 0.045 0.101 1.315 0.307 0.318 0.370 0.072 0. 160 2. 187 0.490 0.507 0.623 1 3.04 29. 17 423.63 87.96 91 .88 111 .75 minimum q u a n t i t y : 74.70 92.00 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 MODIFIED MODEL: Si m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [Vancouver] 890 Subsidy Level:85% QN Model:MODIFIED ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] subs[2] c o e f f i c i e n t s income 5 357.2 71 .4 0.171 0.493 43.94 i n k i n d 5 299. 1 59.8 0.204 0.589 52.48 c o n s t r a i n e d 5 99.5 19.9 0.654 1 .771 200.08 q u a n t i t y 5 218.7 43.7 0.291 0.806 91 .03 expenditure 5 198.7 39.7 0.328 0.887 100.19 p r i c e 5 1 34. 1 26.8 0.455 1.314 117.04 minimum q u a n t i t y : 56. 1 0 67.20 • Subsidy Level:99% QN Model:MODIFIED ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average a l l [ 1 ] subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy c o e f f i c i e n t s income 8 2188.9 273.6 0.053 0. 129 1 4.65 i n k i n d 8 707.7 88.5 0. 163 0.399 45.31 c o n s t r a i n e d 8 190.4 23.8 0.607 1 .482 197.22 q u a n t i t y 9 421 .2 46.8 0.284 0.641 90.78 expenditure 8 373.9 46.7 0.309 0.755 100.43 p r i c e 8 278.4 34.8 0.415 1.014 115.17 minimum q u a n t i t y : 65.30 78.20 note: [ 1 ] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 MODIFIED MODEL: Si m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [Winnipeg] 891 Subsidy Level:100% QN Model:MODIFIED e f f i c i e n c y p o l i c y number subsidy average a l l [ 1 ] subs[2] earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy coef f i c i e n t s income 1 1 1019.1 92.6 0.073 0.239 30.44 i n k i n d 1 1 743.8 67.6 0.101 0.328 41 .70 c o n s t r a i n e d 1 1 1 39.3 13.9 0.195 1 .983 254.86 q u a n t i t y 1 1 347.8 31.6 0.215 0.702 89. 18 expenditure 1 1 328. 1 29.8 0.269 0.744 96.23 p r i c e 1 1 271 .2 24.7 0. 168 0.900 114.37 minimum q u a n t i t y : 66.00 79.00 Subsidy Level:115% QN Model:MODIFIED ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ 1 ] subs[2] c o e f f i c i e n t s income 23 6392.3 277.9 0.029 0.064 11.17 i n k i n d 23 2731.4 118.8 0.069 0. 149 26. 1 5 c o n s t r a i n e d 24 236.4 9.8 0.738 1 .563 302.36 q u a n t i t y 23 839.7 36.5 0.224 0.485 85.06 expenditure 22 786.5 35.7 0.242 0.536 90.69 p r i c e 23 652. 1 28.4 0.287 0.625 109.53 minimum q u a n t i t y : 75.90 90.90 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy Table A5.01 MODIFIED MODEL: Si m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s [Winnipeg] 892 A5.02 A Comparison of the MODELS A quick review of the preceding r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e s a s i g n i f i c a n t spread i n the t o t a l and average subsidy c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d with the l e a s t and most e f f i c i e n t forms of i n t e r v e n t i o n a c r o s s the s e l e c t e d CMAs. Under both MODELS the a l t e r n a t i v e froms of i n t e r v e n t i o n r e c e i v e comparable c o s t rankings but the r e l a t i v e magnitude of the d i f f e r e n c e i n cost and e f f i c i e n c y a s s o c i a t e d with the i n d i v i d u a l CMAs v a r i e s s i g n i f i c a n t l y as a r e s u l t of the nature of the u n d e r l y i n g t h e o r e t i c a l s t r u c t u r e s . There i s no c o n s i s t a n t d i s c r e p a n c y between the two s e t s of r e s u l t s except that the e x p l i c i t p r e v e n t i o n from tenure s w i t c h i n g a s s o c i a t e d with the MODIFIED MODEL does r e s u l t i n the e x i s t i n g stock not being able to provide s u f f i c i e n t a d d i t i o n a l housing s e r v i c e s when r e q u i r e d . T h i s requirement a r i s e s when the minimum supported l e v e l i s set below the minimum q u a n t i t y of new housing s e r v i c e s and f r e q u e n t l y one or two households are ' l e f t unaccommodated. A d i r e c t comparison of the two MODELS i s provided i n the f o l l o w i n g Table; wherein the percentage v a r i a t i o n of the MODIFIED MODEL r e s u l t s from the corresp o n d i n g b a s i c MODEL r e s u l t s a c r o s s the e i g h t CMAs are presented. A p o s i t i v e percentage amount i n d i c a t i n g that the r e s p e c t i v e average for the ORIGINAL MODEL i s l a r g e r . 893 Percent D i f f e r e n c e i n D e r i v e d R e s u l t s Subsidy Level:85% QN Model:ORIGINAL vs MODIFIED e f f i c i e n c y p o l i c y number subsidy average earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ l ] subs[2] c o e f f i c i e n t s % % % % % % income -20.5 -48.3 -40.1 77.1 118.2 69.1 i n k i n d -20.5 -14.2 6.2 -85.5 14.3 -10.5 c o n s t r a i n e d -25.0 -62.6 -53.6 -578.1 302.0 224.4 q u a n t i t y -28.6 -3.7 33.3 -229.7 -18.0 -27.8 expenditure -23.1 -18.2 2.0 -323.8 2.0 -0.1 p r i c e -20.5 -36.6 -24.1 53.4 62.0 33.7 Percent D i f f e r e n c e i n D e r i v e d R e s u l t s Subsidy Level:99% QN Model:ORIGINAL vs MODIFIED ef f i c iency p o l i c y number subsidy average earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ l ] subs[2] c o e f f i c i e n t s % % % % % % income -18.5 -8.5 8.2 253.9 27.7 -0.1 i n k i n d -17.2 -17.5 -1.8 2224.5 4.1 -12.1 c o n s t r a i n e d -18.5 -63.8 -57.2 1484.7 224.7 161.6 q u a n t i t y -21.5 -5.6 18.7 9.8 -23.6 -29.1 expenditure -23.1 -31.7 -12.4 731.6 14.0 -1.0 p r i c e -17.2 -43.6 -33.1 1101.6 51.7 29.6 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy F i g u r e A5.02 Si m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s : Comparison of the MODELS 894 Percent D i f f e r e n c e i n Derived R e s u l t s Subsidy Level:100% QN Model:ORIGINAL vs MODIFIED e f f i c i e n c y p o l i c y number subsidy average earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ l ] subs[2] c o e f f i c i e n t s income -20. .3 -34. .6 i n k i n d -22. .4 -8. . 1 c o n s t r a i n e d -5. .5 -18, .5 q u a n t i t y -17, .8 26, .3 expenditure -20, .0 13, .9 p r i c e -22, .4 -8, .0 -19.2 -589.9 22.6 58.0 19.4 -240.7 -23.4 -2.2 -12.8 -198.9 15.1 79.3 56.6 -271 .0 -45.5 -27.9 43.6 -246.8 -37.8 -20.7 19.1 -263.3 -20.7 -3.1 Percent D i f f e r e n c e i n Derive d R e s u l t s Subsidy Level:115% QN Model:ORIGINAL vs MODIFIED e f f i c i e n c y p o l i c y number subsidy average earmarking o p t i o n r e c i p i e n t s amount subsidy a l l [ l ] subs[2] c o e f f i c i e n t s income 5. ,0 76. .4 51 . 3 209. ,5 -40. .2 -0. ,7 i n k i n d 5. ,0 89, .8 78. .5 925. .9 -58. .2 -25. .3 c o n s t r a i n e d 22. .3 -13, .8 -22, .7 3691 . 9 -7, .0 82. .3 q u a n t i t y 6. .7 71 , . 1 68, .5 226. .5 -58, .2 -28, .8 expenditure 0. .0 57, .6 60, .4 503. .6 -51 , .7 -22, .4 p r i c e 5. .0 40, .0 35, .8 543. . 1 -46, .5 -6, .6 note: [1] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed w i t h i n the CMA as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy amount [2] i n d i c a t e s the change i n the q u a n t i t y of housing consumed by the s u b s i d i s e d households as a f u n c t i o n of the subsidy F i g u r e A5.02 Si m u l a t i o n R e s u l t s : Comparison of the MODELS 895 As i n d i c a t e d , the t y p i c a l "number of r e c i p i e n t s " i s , on average, 20% lower f o r the MODIFIED MODEL at the lowest l e v e l of support, but with the margin d e c l i n i n g as the l e v e l of support i s in c r e a s e d such that at the h i g h e s t l e v e l of support the average "number of r e c i p i e n t s " f o r the MODIFIED MODEL exceeds those f o r the ORIGINAL MODEL. These d i f f e r e n c e s a r i s e f i r s t l y from changes i n the household's income p r o f i l e s a s s o c i a t e d with the deduction of taxes and, more s i g n i f i c a n t l y , from the i n c l u s i o n of owner o c c u p i e r s ' imputed income and, secondly, from the r e s p e c i f i c a t i o n of the "minimum q u a n t i t y of new c o n s t r u c t i o n " . While these d i f f e r e n c e s i n the average number of r e c i p i e n t s w i l l d i s t o r t the d i f f e r e n c e s i n the "subsidy amount", comparable performances by the two MODELS would be r e f l e c t e d by a c o n s i s t e n t d i f f e r e n t i a l f o r the other f a c t o r s . The f l u c t u a t i o n s i n the " e f f i c i e n c y " and "earmarking" c o e f f i c i e n t s a r i s e j o i n t l y from the r e s p e c i f i e d demand system and the r e s t r u c t u r e d supply f u n c t i o n s . The supply system has a s i g n i f i c a n t impact on the i n d i c a t e d performance of the "income" o r i e n t a t e d p o l i c i e s with the MODIFIED MODELS' more e l a s t i c s p e c i f i c a t i o n s r e s u l t i n g i n t y p i c a l l y much higher market e f f i c i e n c i e s . The exception i s that the p r e v e n t i o n from tenure s w i t c h i n g i n the MODIFIED MODEL, i n c o n j u n c t i o n with the l i m i t e d e x i s t i n g stock, i s o f f s e t t i n g i n s c e n a r i o s i n v o l v i n g a subsidy l e v e l of 99% QN (when a l l r e c i p i e n t s must occupy e x i s t i n g d w e l l i n g s ) . For s c e n a r i o s where the income t r a n s f e r i s c o n s t r a i n e d ("in-kind") the MODIFIED MODEL i n d i c a t e s , on average, a much lower "earmarking" l e v e l but higher e f f i c i e n c y l e v e l s for the r e c i p i e n t s as a d i r e c t r e s u l t of the more e l a s t i c supply f u n c t i o n s . The major u n d e r l y i n g t r e n d i s f o r the subsidy c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d with "income" and " i n - k i n d " p o l i c i e s of the MODIFIED MODEL to f a l l below those 896 for the ORIGINAL MODEL at the lower l e v e l s of support. The three " d i r e c t product" o r i e n t a t e d p o l i c i e s ; " q u a n t i t y " , "expenditure" and " p r i c e " r e f l e c t v a r i a t i o n s i n the i n d i c a t e d average subsidy amount and e f f i c i e n c i e s i n keeping with the v a r i a t i o n and e l a s t i c i t y a s s o c i a t e d with the supply f u n c t i o n s . At the lower l e v e l s of support, subsidy c o s t s from the MODIFIED MODEL are g e n e r a l l y higher as a r e s u l t of the e x p l i c i t l y higher marginal c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d with the p r o v i s i o n of a d d i t i o n a l housing s e r v i c e s . The exception i s with the " p r i c e " subsidy where e x p l i c i t c o n s i d e r a t i o n i s made of the impact of the r e s u l t a n t p r i c e change on demand behaviour. On t h i s b a s i s the average subsidy r e q u i r e d under the MODIFIED MODEL i s s i g n i f i c a n t l y lower than that f o r the ORIGINAL MODEL. At the higher l e v e l s of support the percentage of owner-o c c u p i e r s r e q u i r i n g support i n c r e a s e s . When e x p l i c i t l y c o n s i d e r e d i n the MODIFIED MODEL, the l a r g e r margin between average p r i c e s f o r housing s e r v i c e s under the two tenure forms r e s u l t s i n a s i g n i f i c a n t i n c r e a s e i n average subsidy c o s t s and corresponding d e c l i n e s i n the e f f i c i e n c i e s of the t r a n s f e r s .
Thesis/Dissertation
eng
Planning
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Graduate
Quantification of the cost of alternative forms of housing market intervention in Canada
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