@prefix vivo: . @prefix edm: . @prefix ns0: . @prefix dcterms: . @prefix skos: . vivo:departmentOrSchool "Forestry, Faculty of"@en ; edm:dataProvider "DSpace"@en ; ns0:degreeCampus "UBCV"@en ; dcterms:creator "Benskin, Henry J."@en ; dcterms:issued "2010-01-30T00:58:16Z"@en, "1975"@en ; vivo:relatedDegree "Master of Forestry - MF"@en ; ns0:degreeGrantor "University of British Columbia"@en ; dcterms:description """The financial implications and some of the costs and benefits of two sets of logging guidelines were examined in two sample drainages in the Chilliwack Provincial Forest. Time limitations and lack of data on non-timber resource impacts prevented a full quantitative evaluation of all costs and benefits. Instead, an analysis of the financial impact of these guidelines on the timber resource was undertaken, and supported by a qualitative discussion of environmental, social and income distribution effects. The potential variation in the system was demonstrated by a simulation approach to the financial evaluation. There still is much uncertainty in most of the assumptions and research and improved methods could provide more precise answers. The financial analysis showed that the alternative patch cutting system, common to both sets of guidelines, was the main contributing factor to increased logging costs. The more extensive basis for harvesting under this system was found to result in as much as a 60% decline in potential economic rent per developed acre, without any consideration of increases in physical harvesting costs. The size of the increase in physical logging costs per unit was found to be very sensitive to interest rates and to the length of the leave period between consecutive harvesting passes. Application of the 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines to harvesting-operations in the Chilliwack Provincial Forest was found to result in an extra annual cost, ranging from between $0,632 million to $6,645 million for the next 24 years. A figure of $1,423 million was considered to be the most realistic estimate of the extra costs resulting from the guidelines. The alternate patch cutting system with long leave periods -may aggravate instability of those small undiversified communities which are highly dependent upon the local timber processing industries for employment. Analysis of the costs and benefits of the guidelines as they affect other resource values revealed that they may be an inefficient means for attaining multiple use objectives. It appeared likely that problems of erosion, sedimentation and aesthetic impact may even be increased overall, because of the more extensive basis for forest development. There still is a need for much investigation of the quantitative aspects of harvesting impacts on forest land resources. In addition the analyses should be extended to other units, and guideline effects evaluated by mathematical modelling."""@en ; edm:aggregatedCHO "https://circle.library.ubc.ca/rest/handle/2429/19450?expand=metadata"@en ; skos:note "\\ \\ FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS AND SOME COSTS AND BENEFITS OF LOGGING GUIDELINES IN THE ' CHILLIWACK PROVINCIAL FOREST by HENRY J . BENSKIN B.Sc. (Hons). University of Wales, 1973 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF FORESTRY i n the Department of FORESTRY We accept t h i s thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA A p r i l , 1975 In presenting t h i s thesis i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e for reference and study. I further agree that permission for extensive copying of t h i s thesis for s c h o l a r l y purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by h i s representatives. I t i s understood that copying or p u b l i c a t i o n of t h i s t h e s i s for f i n a n c i a l gain s h a l l not be allowed without my written permission. Department of The University of B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada Date / i Supervisor: Dr. J.H.G. Smith ABSTRACT The financial implications and some of the costs and benefits of two sets of logging guidelines were examined in two sample drainages in the ChilliwackfProvincial Forest. Time limitations and lack of data on non-timber resource impacts prevented a full.quantitative evaluation of a l l costs and benefits. Instead, an analysis of the financial impact of these guidelines on the timber resource was undertaken, and supported by a qualitative discussion of environmental, social and income distribution effects. The potential variation in the system was demonstrated by a simulation approach to the financial evaluation. There s t i l l i s much uncertainty in most of the assumptions and research and improved methods could provide more precise answers. The financial analysis showed that the alternative patch cutting system, common to both sets of guidelines, was the main contributing factor to increased logging costs. The more extensive basis for harvest-ing under this system was found to result in as much as a 60% decline in potential economic rent per developed acre, without any consideration of increases in physical harvesting costs. The size of the increase in physical iLoggingicQSts per cunit was found to be very sensitive to interest rates and to the length of the leave period between consecutive harvesting passes. Application of the 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines to harvesting -operations in the Chilliwack Provincial Forest was found to result in an i i extra annual cost, ranging from between $0,632 m i l l i o n to $6,645 m i l l i o n for the next 24 years. A fi g u r e of $1,423 m i l l i o n was considered to be the most r e a l i s t i c estimate of the extra costs r e s u l t i n g from the guide-l i n e s . The alternate patch c u t t i n g system with long leave periods -may aggravate i n s t a b i l i t y of those small u n d i v e r s i f i e d communities which are highly dependent upon the l o c a l timber processing i n d u s t r i e s for employ-ment . Analysis of the costs and bene f i t s of the guidelines as they a f f e c t other resource values revealed that they may be an i n e f f i c i e n t means for a t t a i n i n g multiple use.objectives. It appeared l i k e l y that problems of erosion, sedimentation and aesthetic impact may even be increased o v e r a l l , because of the more extensive basis for forest development. There s t i l l i s a need for much i n v e s t i g a t i o n of the quantitative aspects of harvesting impacts on fo r e s t land resources. In addition the analyses should be extended to other units, and guideline'.effects evaluated by mathematicaloihodel'ldng. i i i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The author wishes to express gratitude to committee chairman, Dr. J.H.G. Smith, for guidance during the research and suggestions for preparing the manuscript, and to committee members Dr. D. Haley, Professor L. Adamovich, and Dr. J.P. Kimmins for t h e i r c r i t i c a l review and advice. Special thanks are also due to Mr. R.L. Schmidt and Mrs. E.A.F. Wdtton, r e s p e c t i v e l y , Forester 2 i / c B.C. Forest Service Research D i v i s i o n and Senior Economist, Special Studies D i v i s i o n for t h e i r help i n enabling t h i s project to be undertaken, and funded as a r e -search contract by the B.C. Forest Service Research D i v i s i o n . My thanks are also extended to: Mr. B. Devitt, Chairman, Reforestation Board of the Tree Farm Forestry Committee, for h i s e f f o r t s i n promoting the need for such a research undertaking. Mr. J.B. Richardson, Forester i / c Operations, Cattermole Timber Ltd., for providing maps and cost information, as w e l l as discussing the impacts of the guidelines on h i s op-erations i n Paleface and Depot Creeks. J. Livland and Assoc. Ltd., Forestry Consultants, Vancouver, for providing numerous development plan maps and cr u i s e information for Paleface and Depot Creeks. •Messrs. K. Ingram and E.E. Amos, r e s p e c t i v e l y , Zone Forester i / c and Zone Forester 2 *i/c ,2B i7C.-Foresti'.Servicevyaneouver D i s t r i c t , for t h e i r considerable e f f o r t s i n making the relevant T.S.H.L. documents a v a i l a b l e , and for discussing the impact of logging guidelines i n the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l i v Forest. Mr. C. Johnson and Mr. H. Hahn, r e s p e c t i v e l y , Forester i / c Operations and Forest Technician, B.C. Forest Service Vancouver D i s t r i c t , for discussing the e f f e c t s of guide-l i n e s on a r t i f i c i a l and natural regeneration, and f o r sup-pl y i n g some of the required data. Person.ell from the Fish and W i l d l i f e Branch i n Burnaby, for discussing the e f f e c t s of guidelines on f i s h and w i l d -l i f e values i n the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. Messrs. M.F. Painter and A. Shebbeare, Council of Forest Industries of B.C., Vancouver, f o r discussing the f i n a n c i a l implications of the 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines, and mak-ing a v a i l a b l e t h e i r data and studies f o r use i n t h i s t h e s i s . Mr. J . Bruce, Forester i / c B.C. Forest Service Inventory D i v i s i o n for providing data for the annual allowable cut c a l c u l a t i o n for the Dewdney P.S.Y.U. Mr. V. Wellburn, Special Lecturer, Faculty of Forestry, U n i v e r s i t y of B.C., for providing cost information, and for reviewing c e r t a i n aspects of the f i n a n c i a l evaluation. Mrs. L. Kerr, Technician, Faculty of Forestry, U n i v e r s i t y of B.C., for her invaluable assistance i n 'de-bugging' the computer program. V TABLE OF CONTENTS Page ABSTRACT ; i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS i i i TABLE OF CONTENTS v LIST OF TABLES i x LIST OF FIGURES x LIST OF CONVERSION FACTORS x i i 1.0 INTRODUCTION. 1 2.0 DESCRIPTION OF THE CHILLIWACK PROVINCIAL FOREST. 3 2.1 Introduction. 3 2.2 Location and extent of the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. 3 2.3 Physical features. 3 2.31 Physiography and Geology. 3 2.32 Climate. 5 2.33 S o i l s and Landforms. 7 2.34 Natural Vegetation. 8 2.4 History, extent and s i g n i f i c a n c e of the timber resource. 8 2.41 History. 8 2.42 Significance of Timber Harvest to the Local Economy. ' 14 2.43 Significance of Timber Harvest to the Regional Economy. 14 2.44 Returns to the Province. 15 2.5 Other resources. 16 2.51 Water Resource. 16 v i .Page 18 2.52 Mineral Resource. 2.53 F i s h Resource. 1 8 2.54 W i l d l i f e Resource. 2 1 2.55 Recreation. 2 2 3.0 ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION CONSTRAINTS AND REGULATION. 26 3.1 Philosophy behind government intervention i n the forest industry i n B.C. 26 3.2 The framework within which Guidelines operate. 29 3.3 Background of logging guidelines i n the Vancouver Forest D i s t r i c t . 31 3.4 Review of the main aspects of the 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines. 34 3.5 Review of the main aspects of the Severe Site Guidelines. 36 3.6 Response from government agencies, private industry and u n i v e r s i t y to logging guidelines. 37 3.7 Discussion of the main f i n a n c i a l impacts of•the logging guidelines. 44 4.0 EVALUATION OF THE COSTS AND BENEFITS OF THE LOGGING GUIDELINES. 48 4.1 Introduction. 48 4.2 Evaluation of q u a n t i f i a b l e costs and b e n e f i t s . 49 4.21 Review of Available Data. \" 49 4.22 Methodology f or Evaluating Forestry Costs and Benefits. 50 4.23 Net Present Value Method. 53 4.231 Logging plan preparation. 53 4.232 Evaluation of cost and revenue flows v i i Page over time . 54 4.233 P l a n t i n g and p l a n t i n g cost assumptions. 57 4.234 N a t u r a l regeneration. 62 4.235 Successor Crop. 64 4.236 Summary of cost and revenue data. 66 ' 4.237 D e s c r i p t i o n of net present worth model. 68 4.238 Results of the a n a l y s i s . 71 4.239 D i s c u s s i o n of r e s u l t s . 76 4.24 CO.F.I. Method. 79 4.241 I n t r o d u c t i o n and b a s i c assumptions. x79 4.242 Road c o s t s . 80 \"\"/ 4.243 Bridge c o s t s . 82 4.244 Road maintenance. 82 4.245 Other lo g g i n g c o s t s . 83 4.246 Moving cos t s and s i t e improvements. 84 4.247 I n t e r e s t c o s t s . -85 4.248 R e s u l t s of the a n a l y s i s . .87 , 4.249 D i s c u s s i o n of r e s u l t s . 92 4.3 E v a l u a t i o n of i n t a n g i b l e costs and b e n e f i t s . 96 -4.31 I n t r o d u c t i o n . 1 96 -4.32 S i g n i f i c a n c e of A v a i l a b l e Data. 97 4.33 Methodology of E v a l u a t i o n . 98 4.34 Impact on L o c a l Employment. 98 4.35 Impact on Recreation and A e s t h e t i c s . 99 \\ 4.36 Impact on W i l d l i f e . 1 0 0 % - TO? 4.37 Impact on F i s h and Water Q u a l i t y . \\t--v i i i Page 4.38 Impact on S i t e P r o d u c t i v i t y . 104 4.39 Impact on Forest P r o t e c t i o n . 106 5.0 DISTRIBUTION OF COSTS AND BENEFITS. 108 6.0 FINAL DISCUSSION, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS 114 LITERATURE CITED 118 APPENDIX I 124 -APPENDIX I I 135 i x LIST OF TABLES Table Page I. Employment and value of wood products from the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest, 1970 - 1972. 15 I I . Basic assumptions and number of trees to plant i n order to achieve the maximum number of successor crop trees per acre. 61 I I I . Natural regeneration lag times. 64 IV. Variable density y i e l d table summary for Douglas-fir and western hemlock: 65 V. Summary of cost and revenue data. 67 VI. L i s t of data card parameters. ''69;!\" VII. L i s t of t i t l e s of net present worth matrices. 72 VIII. Range and mean values of net present worth matrices for Paleface and Depot Creeks. 73 IX. Percent reduction i n net present worth of other operations compared to the pre-1972 guideline operation. ; 74 X. Range and mean values of the proportion of t o t a l net present worth contributed by the successor crop. 75 XI. Net present worth values per developed acre and per cunit. 78 X LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1. Map showing l o c a t i o n of the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. 4 > 2. Topography: Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. 6 3. S o i l s : Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. 9 4. Unit landforms: Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. 10 5. Biogeoclimatic zones and subzones: Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. H 6. Chilliwack River hydrology. 1'7 7. F i s h populations: Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. 8. Winter range: Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. 9. Recreational opportunities: Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. 10. Flow chart showing a l t e r n a t i v e assumptions for net present worth model. 11. Types of environmental costs. 1 HO 12. P o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l cost components. H I 19, 23 25 70 Page x i XII. Summary of cost impact of 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines f o r Depot Creek ( i = 10%). 88 XIII. Summary of cost impact of 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines f or Paleface Creek ( i = 10%). 89 XIV. Summary of cost impact of 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines f o r Depot Creek ( i = 6%). 90 XV. Summary of cost impact of 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines f o r Paleface Creek ( i = 6%). 91 XVI. Yearly logging cost increase a l t e r n a t i v e s for the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest ($ MM). 94 x i i LIST OF CONVERSION FACTORS To convert: Inches (in.) Cubic feet (cu.ft.) Miles (mi.) Acres (ac.) Into: Centimeters (cm.) 3) Cubic meters (m Kilometers (km.) Hectares (ha.) Mul t i p l y by: 2.540 0.0283 1.609 0.405 To convert degrees Fahrenheit (°F) to degrees Celsius (°C), subtract 32 and multiply by 5/9. 1 1.0 INTRODUCTION. In recent years the B.C. Forest Service, other Government agencies and private industry have been showing signs of increased cooperation i n managing the forest environment. Although a frame-work i s w e l l on the way to being established, r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e a t t ention i s being devoted to the problem of multiple-resource deS c i s i o n making, and to the use of e x p l i c i t l y defined management ob-j e c t i v e s and c r i t e r i a . The main reason for t h i s i s a lack of informa-t i o n on resource values and l i t t l e knowledge of the impact of manage-ment of one resource on the values of other resources. Logging guidelines i n Coastal B.C. have tended to be vague and too subjective. Despite these obvious problems, i t i s e s s e n t i a l that guidelines are updated continually i n the l i g h t of changing circumstances and a d d i t i o n a l information and research. This thesis attempts to q u a n t i t a t i v e l y evaluate the costs and benefits of two sets of logging guidelines, namely the 'Planning guidelines for Coast Logging Operation s'' >'(B. C.F.. S.. , '1912): anck'the''-' Interim'5' Guides\" -Logging on Severe Sites - Vancouver Forest D i s t r i c t ' (B.C.F.S., 1973a). The need f or such research originated i n part from recommendations made by the author of t h i s t h e s i s , to a Task Force appointed by the Chairman of the Reforestation Board of the Tree Farm Forestry Committee. This Task Force was instruc t e d to review comments made by foresters i n the Vancouver D i s t r i c t on the l a t t e r set of guide-l i n e s , and to o u t l i n e any apparent information gaps. A separate report on research needs was forwarded by the Chairman (Devitt, 1974) to various research agencies with a request f o r assistance and a request f o r guidance i n the type of work that each might be able to 2 undertake. As a r e s u l t of discussions with Mr. R.L. Schmidt, R.P.F. and Mrs. E.A.F. Wetton, R.P.F.*, the author prepared a research pro-posal o u t l i n i n g a method f or analysing the costs and benefits of logging guidelines. This was accepted, and the author was awarded a contract, dated May 10, 1974 requesting the following project to be undertaken: \"Socio-economic evaluation of the impact of environmental protection constraints and regulation upon e x i s t i n g tim-ber harvesting practices at high elevations i n the C h i l l i -wack P r o v i n c i a l Forest.\" (Stokes, pers. comm.) The Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest was selected as a s u i t a b l e study area f o r two main reasons. F i r s t l y , the area provides a^good example of c o n f l i c t i n g i n t e r e s t s i n timber production, f i s h and w i l d l i f e values and recreation, and may indic a t e the sort of problem which i s l i k e l y to be faced a great deal more i n B.C. i n the future. Secondly, a r e a l i s t i c analysis i n a short period of time requires a sound data base. This i s lacking f o r a great many areas i n B.C. but a l o t of information has been c o l l e c t e d for the Chilliwack Pro-v i n c i a l Forest by the Westwater Research Centre at U.B.C. and by the B.C. Forest Service, Vancouver D i s t r i c t S t a f f . The a v a i l a b l e information was reviewed and analysed as to i t s p o t e n t i a l usefulness for t h i s study (Benskin, 1974a). The evaluatory procedure adopted was s p e c i f i c a l l y designed to accomodate the basic l i m i t a t i o n s of the av a i l a b l e data. Those costs and ben e f i t s which could be q u a n t i t a t i v e l y i d e n t i f i e d were included i n a t r a d i t i o n a l economic analysis. The remaining int a n g i b l e components were reviewed i n a supporting q u a l i t a t i v e discussion, and were r e l a t e d to the r e s u l t s of the quantitative analysis. * Respectively Forester 2 i / c B.C. Forest Service Research D i v i s i o n and Forest Economist, Special Studies D i v i s i o n . 3 2.0 DESCRIPTION OF THE CHILLIWACK PROVINCIAL FOREST 2.1 Introduction. The physical and b i o l o g i c a l a t t r i b u t e s of the C h i l l i -wack P r o v i n c i a l Forest have been w e l l documented i n the l i t e r a t u r e . The objective of t h i s section i s to provide a f a i r l y concise back-ground review of the resources considered i n t h i s study. For more de t a i l e d information the reader should r e f e r to the 'Integrated Use Plan for the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest: Part 1 Basic Resources', (B.C.F.S., 1974) and to a number of unpublished Westwater Research Centre reports c i t e d i n the text. 2.2 Location and extent of the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. The Chilliwack Forest covers approximately 175,000 acres and i s located about 55 miles east of Vancouver, B.C. between the Fraser River and the International Boundary (Figure 1). Unless one hikes i n over the mountains or f l i e s i n to Chilliwack Lake, en-trance to the f o r e s t i s by road from Vedder Crossing located about four miles south of the town of Chilliwack. 2.3 Physical features. 2.31 Physiography and Geology. The Chilliwack River flows i n an almost due westerly d i r e c t i o n through a narrow v a l l e y located i n the Cascade Mountains (Skagit Range) of B r i t i s h Columbia. The drainage area measures approximately 486 square miles and i s bordered by mountains with peaks ranging between 5,000 to 8,500 feet above sea l e v e l . The headwaters of the r i v e r o r i g i n a t e inT-the North Cascades National Park, Washington, U.S.A., and j o i n to form the Chilliwack River some 1.6 miles north of the Canada-U.S. border. The r i v e r then flows 7 - 7T~r\\ \\ ~~ \\ Figure 1 Map showing l o c a t i o n of the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest Scale: 1:125000 4 ,1 I S O U L L O C K IQ,^J I J , , \"A \\^i:7) \\ \\ I • 7^ '!\"\"'!. r». JT* \". .4.\" -. 1 ^ 5 \" V i P K . i \\ J „ , , . •I LAUGHINGTON HURSTOW I f\"jl • i c S / 1 ' , * ' T T E N B E R G -VLOCKWOOO ; £9 IcGUIRE r P tor c s '• | M A C O O N A L I ^ . \\ \\ N - \\ ^ \\ „ ^ 1 / , - o . MERONUIK J- THOMPSO«'0~ M \" ^ EDGAR v fJQEMAN- ; :. .-.TOT/ / WASHINGTON S. 5 i n a northerly d i r e c t i o n into Chilliwack Lake, and from there pro-ceeds i n a westerly d i r e c t i o n for a distance of 37 miles to the Fraser River. Topographically, the drainage consists of a long U-shaped v a l l e y , broad i n places, with r e l a t i v e l y steep, rugged slopes and a number of narrow t r i b u t a r y drainages entering i n from the sides (Figure 2). Monger (1974) described the Chilliwack Forest as l y i n g on the west side of the Cascade Mountain System: an a x i a l core of granite rock and gneiss flanked on the east and west by b e l t s of faulted metamorphic, sedimentary, plutonic and volcanic rocks. The l a t t e r accounts f o r the western two-thirds of the f o r e s t , eastwards to a l i n e drawn roughly from Slesse Mountain to Williams and Goetz Peaks, while the remaining eastern portion was described as e s s e n t i a l l y g r a n i t i c rock with minor gneiss and sedimentary rock. 2.32 Climate. The Forest, which i s under the influence of the Coastal Pressure System (Chapman, 1952) , has an annual t o t a l p r e c i p i -t a t i o n of 62.12 inches with only s l i g h t v a r i a t i o n from s t a t i o n to s t a t i o n . On the other hand, the average snow f a l l shows a d e f i n i t e increase i n an e a s t e r l y d i r e c t i o n , from 28 inches at Cultus Lake to 52 inches at Tamihi Creek and 91 inches at Center Creek (Farley, 1966). The area f a l l s into Koppen's Dfb (Humid Continental-Cool Summer) c l i m a t i c zone, which i s characterized by average temperatures between 50°F and 72°F during the warmest month and l e s s than 27°F during the coldest month. There i s no d i s t i n c t dry season i n the Dfb zone; the d r i e s t summer month has more than 1.2 inches of r a i n . (Chapman, 1952). Mean d a i l y temperatures i n the Chilliwack Provin-c i a l Forest range from 60°F for July to 25°F for January with a mean annual temperature of 49°F (Farley, 1966). It should be noted that FIGURE 2 6 Reproduced w i t h the kind p e r m i s s i o n of N. Keser. 7 several of the c l i m a t i c stations from which these measurements were taken are located outside the boundaries of the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest and almost a l l stations are situated at elevations of 1600 feet or below. Care has to be exercised, therefore, i n forming con-clusions based on these figures which do not include high e l e v a t i o n information or take account of l o c a l v a r i a t i o n due to the immense topographic v a r i a b i l i t y i n the area. 2.33 S o i l s and Landform. JL mi; A survey was ca r r i e d out by Leskiw (1973) i n order to provide basic information on s o i l s and landform for the 'Integrated Resource Use Plan f o r the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest' (B.C.F.S., 1974). The area was found to possess a great v a r i e t y of landforms, from v a l l e y bottom to mountain top. Some v a l l e y s such as those of the Chilliwack River and Slesse Creek are broad i n places with benches and terraces, and were found to consist of deep g l a c i o -f l u v i a l , l a c u s t r i n e and morainal deposits. In comparison, the nar-rower and steeper-sided v a l l e y s of Foley and Nesakwatch Creeks & had c o l l u v i a l deposits along the sides and patches of moraine and alluvium at t h e i r lower ends and entrances. Leskiw (1973) analysed s o i l types within these landform categories. Shallow ridge s o i l s (approximately 20 inches deep)consisting of l i t h i c a lpine b r u n i s o l s and l i t h i c humo-ferric podsols were common within subalpine and a l -pine areas (elevation range between 5,000 and 7,000 f e e t ) . On the mountain slopes within forested areas (elevation range between 500 and 5,000 feet) there were mainly podsols ( o r t h i c , l i t h i c and hum6-f e r r i c types) with intermittant c o l l u v i a l fans which had very l i t t l e s o i l development. The v a l l e y bottom s o i l s consisted of humo-ferric podsols or complexes of g l e y s o l i c , podsolic and re g o s o l i c s o i l s de-8 veloped on alluvium, l a c u s t r i n e , outwash or c o l l u v i a l deposits. Reduced copies of Leskiw's s o i l and landform maps are shown i n Figures 3 and 4 r e s p e c t i v e l y . 2.34 Natual Vegetation. Briere (1974) mapped the natural vegetation of the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest (Figure 5) according to methods developed by Krajina (1969). Krajina's Zones and Subzones were not only defined on the basis of vegetation but also by the combined e f f e c t s of vegetation, s o i l s and c l i m a t i c v a r i a t i o n on a l o c a l scale. The Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest was found to contain three of h i s Biogeoclimatic Zones: the Coastal Douglas-fir zone, the Coastal Western Hemlock Zone, and the Mountain Hemlock Zone. The respective areas of each Zone and Subzone have not yet been calculated. The reader should consult Briere (1974) and Krajina (1969). for a comprehensive l i s t of tree and plant species as well as for the p h y s i c a l c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s of these mapping u n i t s . 2.4 The h i s t o r y , extent and s i g n i f i c a n c e of the timber resource. 2.41 History. U t i l i z a t i o n of the forests i n the Lower Fraser V a l l e y has been continuous since the early days of settlement, but logging did not become very s i g n i f i c a n t u n t i l about 1900. The f i r s t knowA operations x i n the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest were started i n 1910 by Bowman and Sons Logging and Sawmilling, and although the Camel River Logging Company began r a i l r o a d logging operations soon afterwards, to a l l intents and purposes the forest was s t i l l i n a ' v i r g i n ' condition (Okonski, 1974). Railroads were usually constructed i n the main v a l l e y and logging operations were r e s t r i c t e d to the most p r o f i t a b l e old growth Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb.) Franco), western hemlock (Tsuga .heterophylla (Raf.)Sarg.), and FIGURE 3 S O I L S FOR LEGEND SEE ACCOMPANYING PRELIMINARY REPORT CONVENTION — Soil Unit 3 5 - 4 R - 4 - 7 Appro*, orto of mop unit 90% 7 0 % - 3 0 % C H I L L I W A C K P R O V I N C I A L F O R E S T p r e l i m i n a r y m a p ( L. L e s k i w ) Reproduced with the kind permission of Canada Dept. of Agriculture, Soils Section FIGURE 4 10 U N I T L A N D F 0 R M S C H I L L I W A C K P R O V I N C I A L F O R E S T p r e l i m i n a r y m a p ( L. L e s k i w ) t s N i S MLC* Reproduced with the kind permission of Canada Dept. of Agriculture, Soils Section FIGURE 5 B I O G E O C L I M A T I . C Z O N E S 11 C D F b C W H a C W H b M H a M H b C O A S T A L DOUGLAS FIR W E T S U B Z O N E C O A S T A L W E S T E R N H E M L O C K DRY SUBZONE C O A S T A L W E S T E R N H E M L O C K W E T SUBZONE MOUNTAIN HEMLOCK SUBALP INE FOREST SUBZONE MOUNTAIN H E M L O C K SUBALPINE P A R K L A N D S U B Z O N E C W H b M H a [CWHI C W H b C H I L L I W A C K X W H a - t D F b CDFb CWHa , MHa :Wrrfb 'MHb . + ° rock + snow MOUNT ••20A FT. McOUIRC iMHb +^ \\MHa rock + MHa C W H b IHc MCt* A MHa MHa MOW • VLAUGHINOTOM ^_ MHb + rock + / snow M H a - W E L C H PEAK . MH b + rock +>now ; W H ! I MHa • ACFARLAW . C W H a M H b + rock + 'snov mm A mm. i MOUNT 6472\"t LING IHa \\ M H b + ^rocl + mow GOET2 PEAK M H b , W I L L l i M i / 6963 A> PC AK ^ CDFb ,MHa v MOUNT • HCXFORO M H b + rock + snow A N D S U B Z O N E S C H I L L I W A C K P R O V I N C I A L F O R E S T ( D. B r i e r e ) MHb) + rock • + low lLak* ,MHa CHILLIWACK .MHb rock/ + •snow MHb Z+rock + snow'' 'MHa\" VCWH b* MOUNT rsrsA FT. LINOC M AN 1— H ••6iit« V L6M\\ TcfyHa\\ 1H« 1Hb> fo^k snciw R e p r o d u c e d w i t h t h e k i n d p e r m i s s i o n o f D. B r i e r 1 2 western redcedar (Thuja p l i c a t a Donn) stands. The r a i l r o a d logging era ended a f t e r a large forest f i r e i n 1938, and logging technology entered a new phase where truck hauling, gas donkeys and bulldozers made smaller operations possible. In the f i f t i e s , portable chainsaws and s t e e l spars were developed and r e f i n e d , which made p r a c t i c a b l e the logging of previously i n a c c e s s i b l e t r i b u t a r y drainages to the Chilliwack River Valley (Anon., 1973). In the l a t e t h i r t i e s and early f o r t i e s i t had become i n c r e a s i n g l y apparent that the fo r e s t , which at that time had been administered as part of the 'Fraser South Area', was being overcut and would have to be placed on a sustained y i e l d basis i n order to provide f o r future supplies of timber. By 1937 the Vancouver Forest D i s t r i c t had adopted a general p o l i c y of not making any timber sales i n second growth stands. In 1949 the Chilliwack Forest Reserve was created by an Order-in-Council which cleared the way f o r the establishment of the Chilliwack Public Working C i r c l e (P.W.C.) - a sustained y i e l d unit. In 1953 an allowable annual cut i n amount of 2.33 m i l l i o n cubic feet (2.33 MM cf) was established for the P.W.C. and i n 1958 t h i s was subsequently raised to 3.00 MM cf . It must have been apparent that between 1960 and 1963 the current rate of cut was too high and could not be reduced to comply with the allowable annual cut cons t r a i n t . In comparison, the adjacent Harrison and Yale P.W.C's were being considerably u n d e r - u t i l i z e d . Consequently i n 1963 the Chilliwack Forest was resurveyed to 'Unit Survey' standards and amalgamated with the other P.W.C's i n 1965 to form the Dewdney Pub l i c Sustained Y i e l d Unit (P.S.Y.U.). The u n u t i l i z e d allowable cut i n the remote areas of the old Yale and Harrison P.W.C's was therefore r e d i s t r i b u t e d to the more p r o f i t a b l e areas f o r logging, such as the Chilliwack 13 Forest. The average cut i n the forest appears to have r i s e n from about 6.75 MM c f i n 1963 to a current annual average cut of 7.71 MM cf (roundwood only) calculated over the period 1970-74 (Ingram pers. comm.). The d i s t r i b u t i o n of logging a c t i v i t y has changed considerably i n the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest over the l a s t decade. Large valley-bottom Douglas-fir and western hemlock stands have mostly been removed and replaced by immature second growth stands. The current harvestable old growth consists mainly of western hemlock, amabilis f i r (Abies amabilis (Dougl.) Forbes) and yellow cedar (Chamaecyparis nootkatensis (D.Don) Spach) i n the higher elevation f o r e s t s , located p r i m a r i l y i n the t r i b u t a r y drainages to the Chilliwack River V a l l e y . Harvesting these forests has presented the logging industry with higher production costs and lower q u a l i t y timber, making i t more d i f -f i c u l t to operate p r o f i t a b l y . For example, higher road construction costs and log hauling costs have been encountered because of increas-ed ruggedness of the t e r r a i n and longer hauling distances. Logging costs have also increased because of smaller log sizes and higher stand defect, the l a t t e r averaging 30-40% and reaching as high as 70% i n some high elevation hemlock-amabilis f i r stands (Richardson, pers. comm.). Problems have also been encountered i n attempting to a r t i -f i c i a l l y regenerate these s i t e s with Douglas-fir planting stock. It i s not uncommon to encounter s i t e s where r e f o r e s t a t i o n attempts have f a i l e d two or three times i n succession (Hahn pers. comm.). As a r e s u l t of the immense scenic beauty which the area possesses as well as the importance of several other resource values (to be 14 mentioned l a t e r ) , the 'Planning Guidelines for Coast Logging Operations' (B.C.F.S., 1972) have been vigorously applied to reduce the undesirable impacts of logging. In addition, several aspects of the unpublished 'Interim Guides - Logging on Severe Sites - Vancouver Forest D i s t r i c t ' (B.C.F.S., 1973a) have been implemented e s p e c i a l l y with regard to improving regeneration performance. 2.42 Significance of the Timber Harvest to the Local Economy. The 1971 Census estimated that there were approxi-mately 23,739 people i n the Chilliwack ennumeration area of whom 9,135 resided i n the town of Chilliwack i t s e l f . A vailable data on labour force by sector ind i c a t e that f o r e s t r y based employment ranks fourth a f t e r employment i n the service, a g r i c u l t u r e and r e t a i l trade sectors (McLean, 1973). The same author made an estimate of the employment and value of production which could be re l a t e d to the annual cut i n the Chilliwack Forest over the years 1970-72. His r e s u l t s have been reproduced i n Table 1, with the following modification : the estimate of 34 men i n sawmilling was based on the estimate of about one-quarter of the allowable cut being processed l o c a l l y (1.7 MM cf) m u l t i p l i e d by the Coastal aver-age of 20.27 man years per MM cf of roundwood processed. Since a l o c a l allowable cut i s no longer i n existance and the current cut i s higher (about 7.71 MM cf) , a fi g u r e of 2 MM cf was s u b s t i t u t e d ^ 3 1 ' i n ^ t h a f c a l c u l a t i o n of m i l l employment. It was apparent from the employment figures that the forest industry i n the Chilliwack i s of r e l a t i v e l y minor importance i n r e l a t i o n to other sectors. 2.43 Significance of Timber Harvest to the Regional Economy. Roughly three-quarters (or 6 MM cf) of the harvest from the Chilliwack i s made into booms on the Fraser River and sold i n the Vancouver log market. McLean (1973) estimated that 15 Table I EMPLOYMENT AND VALUE OF WOOD PRODUCTS FROM THE CHILLIWACK PROVINCIAL FOREST, 1970-1972. - . .. Z : > •. ' ' ' - \"\\ 1970 1971 1972 • .••' P. , R ' ~ -. • R~ • ••- ' '' • •• Av. no. of men employed ( f u l l time): a) i n logging. 80 93 68 b) in: l o c a l m i l l s . 40 40 40 c) dead and down salvage. 114 140 75 Total volume of logs produced (C cf.) 92,861 90,727 60,023 Total market value of logs ($) 4,067,358 3,435,491 2,796,576 Tot a l market value of minor pro- 249,442 410,040 396,330 ducts ($) 69% of these logs are processed by sawmills, 22% by pulp and paper plants and remaining 9% by plywood and veneer plants - a l l located on the Lower Coast. On t h i s b a s i s , the Chilliwack harvest only contributed about 0.7% of the t o t a l roundwood consumption on the Lower Coast i n 1972 - which i s very small indeed when considered on i t s own. 2.44 Returns to the Province. Estimates of P r o v i n c i a l revenues are d i f f i c u l t to assess because of the great v a r i a b i l i t y i n stumpage p r i c e s over the past few years. For example, the B.C. Forest Service Annual Reports show that the average stumpage p r i c e for a l l species i n the Vancouver D i s t r i c t varied between $4.71 and $15.48 per cunit pver the period 1970-73 i n c l u s i v e . Based on the annual v a r i a t i o n i n the Chilliwack timber harvest, the average weighted stumpage p r i c e paid was found to be 7.70 per cunit over the period 1970-74. P r o v i n c i a l r e c e i p t s would therefore t o t a l $593,670 per annum based on an average annual cut of 7.71 MM cf over the same period. Other payments to the P r o v i n c i a l Treasury were estimated by Reed and Assoc. (1973) as 16 being approximately $1.36 for every $1.00 of Forest Service r e c e i p t s . Such payments included f u e l tax,' s o c i a l service tax, the P r o v i n c i a l share of income tax, logging tax and the forest land improvements tax. By multiplying the fi g u r e of $1.36 by the average weighted stumpage rec e i p t s calculated above, an estimate of $807,391 per annum was obtained. T o t a l Government revenues were therefore i n the region of $1,401,081 per annum. 2.5 Other resources. 2.51 Water Resource. The watershed of the Chilliwack River, which includes the 274 square mile Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest, comprises an area of 484 square miles, 327 of which l i e i n Canada and 157 within the United States (Cheng, 1974). The elevation of the watershed ranges between 200 feet above sea l e v e l to 8,956 feet with more than 50 percent of the area l y i n g above 4000 feet . Included within the boundaries are many extensive permanent snow f i e l d s and g l a c i e r s * e s p e c i a l l y at higher elevations. Slopes of the watershed are generally steep, with between 75 percent and 100 percent not uncommon. Cheng (1974) compiled summaries of annual, monthly and extreme run-off data from \"a v a r i e t y of sources. Mean monthly run-off figures expressed as a percentage of mean annual runoff are i l l u s t r a t e d i n Figure 6. Cheng stated that p r e c i p i t a t i o n f a l l i n g i n the form of snow or r a i n originated i n p a r t i c u l a r from high e l e -vation areas. Rainstorms alone seldom caused high runoffs from the watersheds, and i f snow f i e l d s and winter snow accumulation from the previous year started to melt between A p r i l and June i t was these that CHILLIWACK RIVER AT VEOOER CROSSING (1911-1931,1931-1970) IORAINAGE AREA : 484 SO. Ml MEAN ANNUAL RUNOFF: 6 7.02 IN. OR 1,730,000 AC. FT CHILLIWACK RIVER BELOW SLESSE CREEK (I937-I9G3) ORAINAGE .ARf A . 332 SO Ml. MEAN ANNUAL RUNOFF: 67.78 IN. OH 1,200,000 AC FT. SLESSE CP.EEX NEAR VEOOER CRC-SS1SG (I957-I97C) bRAINAGE AREA -f 62.7 SC VI. MEAN ANNUAL SjSOr.-: 75.06 IN. C« 251,000 4C FT. 20 10 J I J F M A M J J A S C N O • 913 * T CMCAM A *IVER CMLLIWACK R ABOVE SLESSE CREEK (1963-1970) BRAINAGE A R E A ^ ^ MEAN ANNUAL RUNOFF 69.03 IN. OR 933 ,000 AC. F T . 20 10 I J F M A M J J A S O N O Pt A« c „ % ANAPA U.S-A F I G U R E 6 17 CHILLIWACK RIVER AT OUTLET OF CHILLIWACK LAKE (1923-1950,1957-1972) •DRAINAGE AREA : I 131 SO. Ml. MEAN ANNUAL RUNOFF; 68.56 IN. OR 479,000 AC. FT. 20 10 Td J F M A M J J A S O N O BRITISH COLUMBIA DEPARTMENT *OF LANDS, FORESTS, AND WATER RESOURCES WATER RESOURCES SERVICE WATER INVESTIGATIONS BRANCH TO ACCOMPANY REPORT ON CHILLIWACK RIVER HYDROLOGY MEAN MONTHLY RUNOFF AS % OF MEAN ANNUAL RUNOFF LEGEND HYDROMETRIC STATION PROVINCIAL FOREST BOUNDARY WATERSHED BOUNDARY L««« \\ 'CHILLIWACK PROVINCIAL FOREST BOUNDARY K L E S 1 L K W A \\ CMILLI*AC< P A L E F A C E MTN. V R e p r o d u c e d w i t h t h e k i n d p e r m i s s i o n jy^y 1974 o f J • C h e n g . 1 8 caused the r i v e r to r i s e appreciably (See Figure 6). Cheng stated that extreme summer peaks depended on the magnitude of the snow pack and high temperatures between A p r i l and July, and that these factors combined with intermittent.rainstorms and steep^topography gave extreme irunoff conditions. 2.52 Mineral Resource. Wimsby (1974) stated that the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest i s an area of r e l a t i v e l y low o v e r a l l mineral p o t e n t i a l . At present, there are no mines i n the area, and a c t i v i t i e s have been l i m i t e d to exploratory surveys. Wimsby considered that the ruggedness of the area would diminish the p r o f i t a b i l i t y of a mining operation, were a minable deposit discovered. He noted that there was the p o s s i b i l i t y that a deposit(s) may be found on which to base a small-scale gold operation. 2.53 F i s h Resource. The Chilliwack r i v e r has been considered e i t h e r the best, or one of the bests i n the Province for steelhead and trout f i s h i n g . In addition, the basin contributes several major runs of commercial salmon to the Fraser River f i s h e r y . Swiatkiewiez (1974) stated that from a commercial point of view Chum (Oncorhynchus keta), Coho (Oncorhynchus kisutch) and Pink Salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha) are the main sources of revenue. He estimated that approximate annual landed value, based on a 10 year average catchment as follows: Chum $500,000 Coho $120,000 Pink $250,000 To t a l $870,000 The approximate d i s t r i b u t i o n of f i s h populations i n the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest i s shown i n Figure 7. In general, the watershed upstream FIGURE 7 19 F I S H P O P U L A T I O N S C H I L L I W A C K P R O V I N C I A L F O R E S T O O O SALMON SPAWNING A R E A S RESIDENT FISH R e p r o d u c e d w i t h t h e k i n d p e r m i s s i o n o f JULY 1974 20 of Slesse Creek represents a prime spawning and rearing area, and i s closed to angling with the exception of a two week s p e c i a l opening i n July ( R i s s l i n g pers. comm.). The s i g n i f i c a n c e of the Chilliwack River to the Lower Mainland r e c r e a t i o n a l anglers i s indicated by the i n t e n s i t y of use of '.\" the r i v e r over the years 1970-71 and 1972-73 (Swiatkiewicz, 1974): 1970-71 1972-73 Estimated no. of anglers: 5,269 4,341 Angler days: 36,250 32,502 No. of steelhead caught: 4,269 3,157 Swiatkiewicz stated that these figures represented P r o v i n c i a l 'highs' and r e f l e c t e d the s i g n i f i c a n c e of the proximity of the r i v e r to the Vancouver population centre. The a b i l i t y of the Chilliwack watershed to sustain high l e v e l s of f i s h production has frequently been a t t r i b u t e d to the high q u a l i t y of the l o c a l environment (despite extensive logging a c t i v i t y since 1910). The e f f e c t s of logging a c t i v i t y on f i s h production i n the Chilliwack have been documented by Vroom and Dunford (1974). These authors contend that h i s t o r i c a l l y , the side t r i b u t a r i e s appeared capable of sustaining high l e v e l s of f i s h , and that recent logging a c t i v i t i e s i n these areas have severely reduced adult spawning populations. Although the prac-t i c e of clearcut logging throughout a given drainage may s u b s t a n t i a l l y .'•:\"••_.•&(? a increase the magnitude and frequency of peak water flows and si z e of s i l t loads, a number of other factors must be considered before hasty conclusions are drawn. E s p e c i a l l y important i s the natural v a r i a t i o n i n f i s h populations and the influence of c l i m a t i c extremes. Like so many Coastal r a i n f o r e s t r i v e r s , the Chilliwack River s u f f e r s from wide extremes i n discharge as was shown i n the previous section. Vroom and Dunford (1974) quoted an observed v a r i a t i o n of between 280 and 27,000 cubic feet per 2 1 second (c.f.s.) and compared this with optimum spawning and emergence rates of between 1,000 and 3,000 c.f.s. An example of such a 'natural disaster' occurred during heavy floods in 1948-49 which resulted in the loss of 10,000 to 15,000 yards (or 50%) of the Sweltzer Creek Chum grounds (Vroom and Dunford, 1974). In addition, the relative contribution of individual tributaries to the Chilliwack River fish production is unknown, and therefore the impact of logging activities in these areas cannot be r e a l i s t i c a l l y assessed. Even though the Chilliwack River has provided a high level of recreation experience to the angling fraternity, there appears to be a constant demand by enthusiasts to further improve or enhance present fish stocks. In fact, there are proposed plans for a hatchery near the Slesse Creek confluence and for a steelhead propagation centre at Salverne Creek (outside the Provincial Forest boundaries), res-pectively Federal and Provincial Government undertakings. The basic benefit - cost ratio of the Federal Fisheries hatchery at Slesse Creek has been calculated to be in the order of 8.5 to 1 (assuming a 50 year l i f e span) (Meyer, 1974) and might add an additional $2.5 million to the annual value of commercial fishery on the Chilliwack River (Swiatkiewcz, 1974). 2.54 v-Wildlife Resource. The Chilliwack Forest area contains a great variety of serai stages and biogeocoenoses and these provide suit-able habitat for most of the wildli f e species known to occur in south-western British Columbia. Some of the more common mammals are: beaver, racoon, skunk, bobcat, black bear, blacktailed deer, mountain goat and cougar. Forbes (1974) stated that the most common big game species in the Chilliwack Valley is the Columbian Blacktail Deer (Odocoileus hemionus columbianus) and, although no accurate dat< as to actual deer numbers exists ••, i t i s known that a f a i r l y good population does occur. Furthermore: \"These animals are subject to the normal e l e v a t i o n a l migration patterns influenced by seasonal v a r i a t i o n s , and the t o t a l population s i z e fluctuates appreciably with winter sever i t y . It would appear that c l i m a t i c factors i n conjunction with the a v a i l a b i l i t y and condition of :r range are the most serious l i m i t i n g factors to deer populations i n the Chilliwack V a l l e y . \" (Forbes, 1974) The area i s c e r t a i n l y very popular for hunting i n the F a l l months. Over 1300 hunters were recorded at intermittent game checks manned by Fish and W i l d l i f e Branch personnel during the 1973 hunting season but i t i s not known what component t h i s r e f l e c t s of the t o t a l contin-gent of hunters v i s i t i n g the area. Forbes (1974) stated that deer hunting success was f a i r l y low f o r t h i s area i n 1973 with 0.03 deer being taken for each hunter day of e f f o r t . Vroom and Dunford (1974) stated that over the period 1961 to 1972, 7818 hunters shot 332 deer Over the past two years the B.C. Forest Service Vancouver D i s t r i c t s t a f f have been making considerable e f f o r t s to protect or enhance w i l d l i f e values i n the Chilliwack Forest. In cooperation with the Fi s h and W i l d l i f e Branch, a number of important winter range areas have been d e l i n i a t e d (Figure 8). For example i n Depot Creek, con-siderable amounts of timber have been deleted from logging plans for t h i s purpose (B.C.F.S., 1973b). 2.55 Recreation. The Chilliwack v a l l e y and i t s predominantly forest environment provide a wide v a r i e t y of re c r e a t i o n features and opportunities. Turner (1974) and Vickerson et a l . (1973) provided good reviews of the r e c r e a t i o n a l resources of the area. The v i s i t o r entering the Chilliwack v a l l e y on the only easy access road soon 3500 use of v a r i a b l e density y i e l d table data which he had recently com-p i l e d for the B.C. Forest Service P r o d u c t i v i t y Committee. The 0 objective would be to plant as many trees as are necessary to achieve the maximum possible number of trees per acre for each s i t e c l a s s . By using values for both Douglas-fir and western hemlock i t was pos-s i b l e to accomodate the p o s s i b i l i t y that an i n i t i a l Douglas-fir plantation might revert to an e s s e n t i a l l y hemlock stand because of natural recruitment. Certain a d d i t i o n a l assumptions were made as to mortality and net recruitment per acre over the r o t a t i o n s , depend-ing on four clearcut width classes. The above assumptions, combined with the mean percentage planting success values with confidence l i m i t s determined above, enabled the determination of the number of trees to be planted on an o p t i m i s t i c , average and p e s s i m i s t i c basis. An example of the r e s u l t i n g values for Douglas-fir S i t e Class I i s shown i n Table I I . Altogether, 360 values were calculated for the two species, three s i t e classes, four clearcut width classes, f i v e elevation ranges, as well as for the o p t i m i s t i c , average and p e s s i -m i s t i c a l t e r n a t i v e s . Values ranged from 175 to 4551. The l a t t e r f i g u r e would normally represent several planting operations required to get a s i t e s a t i s f a c t o r i l y regenerated. For purposes of s i m p l i c i t y i t was assumed that t h i s number would be planted at a given point i n time. In order to r e l a t e these data to the c u t t i n g plan maps, i t was necessary to c a l c u l a t e the extent of good, medium and poor s i t e s i n each c u t t i n g block, as well as s p e c i f y i n g the c l e a r c u t width c l a s s . The l a t t e r c r i t e r i o n turned out to be more subjective than was f i r s t a n t i cipated, and other factors such as the influence of l o c a l topography, p r e v a i l i n g wind d i r e c t i o n and the p o t e n t i a l of adjacent stands as seed sources were also taken into account be-TABLE II BASIC ASSUMPTIONS AND NUMBER OF TREES TO PLANT IN ORDER TO ACHIEVE THE MAXIMUM NUMBER OF SUCCESSOR CROP TREES PER ACRE MAX AGE MORTALITY MIN NET NEED TO ELEVATION NUMBERS OF TREES TO PLANT TO ACHIEVE NT/AC. MAX NT/AC. CLEARCUT RECRUIT- ESTABLISH RANGE ( f t . ) MAX NT PER ACRE. NT. WIDTH MENT NT/AC. (CHAINS) PER AC. OPTIMISTIC AVERAGE PESSIMISTIC 208 50 75 20 150 133 2000 175 210 263 208 50 75 20 150 133 .,2000-2500 184 224 288 208 50 75 20 150 133 2501-3000 198 280 482 208 50 75 20 150 133 3001-3500 237 337 583: 208 50 75 20 150 133 =*3500 379 870 1361 208 50 75 40 100 183 ^2000 241 287 362 208 50 75 40 100 183 2000-2500 253 309 396 208 50 75 40 100 183 2501-3000 272 386 664 208 50 75 40 100 183 3001-3500 326 463 799 208 50 75 40 100 183 >3500 521 1197 1873 208 50 75 60 50 233 ^ 2000 306 367 460 208 50 75 60 50 233 2000-2500 322 393 505 208 50 75 60 50 233 2501-2500 346 491 845 208 50 75 60 50 233 3001-3500 415 590 1018 208 50 75 60 50 233 >3500 663 1524 2385 208 50 75 60 + 0 283 2000 372 446 758 208 50 75 60 + 0 283 2000-2500 392 477 614 208 50 75 60 + 0 283 2501-3000 422 597 1025 208 50 75 60 + 0 283 3001-3500 504 716 1236 208 50 75 60 + 0 283 ^3500 806 1851 2888 ON 62 fore ratings were f i n a l i z e d . The t o t a l cost per planted seedling was estimated from basic p r i n c i p l e s using 1974 data supplied by the Council of Forest Indus-t r i e s (Ross, pers. comm.). Values f o r Douglas-fir and western hem-lock were derived as follows: Basic assumptions: Contract planting cost (per ,1000 plants) $110.00 Cost of seed c o l l e c t i o n and extraction per l b . (Douglas-fir)..$ 20.00 Cost of seed c o l l e c t i o n and extraction per l b . (western $ 50.00 hemlock) Cost of 1000 v i a b l e seeds (Douglas-fir) $ 1.25 Cost of 1000 v i a b l e seeds (western hemlock) $ 0.50 The above figures were applied to production costs f o r four types of plan t i n g stock as follows: Type of pla n t i n g Production cost T o t a l Cost (per 1000) stock. (per 1000) Douglas - f i r western hemlock Bareroot 2 + 1 $50 $161.25 $160.50 Bareroot 2 + 0 $25 $131.25 $130.50 Mudpack 2 + 1 $80 $191.25 $190.50 Mudpack 2 + 0 $50 $166.25 $165.50 Discussions with the Council of Forest Industries suggested that 2 + 0 mudpacks were most sui t a b l e for pla n t i n g at high elevations. For the purpose of s i m p l i c i t y i t was assumed that t h i s planting stock would be used, and that the approximate t o t a l cost per 1000 plants planted f o r e i t h e r species would be $170 i . e . $0.17 per plant. 4.234 Natural Regeneration. The influence of environmental factors on the performance of natural regeneration i s a very complex subject, and there are a great many schools of thoughti;as to the important 63 contributing influences. I m p l i c i t i n the Severe Site Guidelines i s the assumption that cleareut s i z e , shape and o r i e n t a t i o n , logging impacts, aspect and elevation are among the most s i g n i f i c a n t f a c t o r s , and that past harvesting p r a c t i c e s have to be r a d i c a l l y improved to improve natural regeneration i n high elevations. The above s t a t i s t i c a l analysis showed however, that there was no apparent r e l a t i o n s h i p between ele v a t i o n and the number of naturals per acre between 1958 and 1971 for the Cultus Lake Ranger D i s t r i c t . Further-more, i t appeared that despite the 'disastrous' harvesting p r a c t i c e s of past years, the mean number of naturals per acre for a l l eleva-tions was s t i l l 200 (range: 0-2000). On the basis of an open to nor-mal growth regime t h i s appears to be a p e r f e c t l y reasonable i n i t i a l stocking (Smith pers. comm.). In view of the fact that more analyses are necessary before d e f i n i t e conclusions can be drawn, i t w i l l be assumed that aspect (northerly or southerly), cleareut s i z e and period-i c i t y of seed supply are the most important factors i n f l u e n c i n g nat-u r a l regeneration. The cleareut s i z e ratings derived i n the previous section were also used here for n a t u r a l l y regenerated stands. It should be remembered that ratings were based on a number of f a c t o r s other than purely the magnitude of the cleareut area. Hetherington (1965) stated that even moderate crops of hemlock, cedar and amabilis f i r seeds could not be expected more than once i n 4 or 5 years. On the basis of h i s observations, i t was assumed that s i t e s with the smallest cleareut s i z e ratings would, on average, be regenerated i n 5 years. Furthermore that the more favourable northerly aspected s i t e s would be regenerated 2 years e a r l i e r and southerly'\" s i t e s 2 years l a t e r . The 5 year average figure was increased to 10 for the next si z e r a t i n g and so on, with the same time d i f f e r e n t i a l for' aspect 64 incorporated, as above. The r e s u l t i n g values shown i n Table I II represent 'regeneration lag' times, and must be added on to>the normal ro t a t i o n age i n order to approximate the year of matura-ti o n of n a t u r a l l y regenerated stands. 4.235 Successor crop. Variable density y i e l d tables were used to simulate the range of possible density conditions associa-ted with the successor crop. Smith (pers. comm.) provided a sum-mary table which showed for each species and s i t e c l a s s , the r o t a -t i o n age and y i e l d for f i v e density classes (expressed i n terms of percentage of average basal area 9.1\" and + per acre). These data are shown i n Table IV. This approach was considerably better than using the only l o c a l volume over age curve for the Dewdney P.S.Y.U. (C + C M j X and H + •) » which indicated a r o t a t i o n age of 107 years and a y i e l d of 7250 cubic feet per acre. Only one successor crop p o s s i b i l i t y could have been evaluated using t h i s method, as opposed to the 30 p o s s i b i l i t i e s a v a i l a b l e i n the v a r i a b l e density y i e l d table approach. TABLE III NATURAL REGENERATION LAG TIMES Clearcut r a t i n g Minimum clearcut width Regeneration Lag (Years) (chains) North South 1 <. 20 3 7 2 ^ 2 0 ^ : 40 8 12 3 ^ 4 0 ^ 6 0 13 17 4 >60 18 22 TABLE IV VARIABLE DENSITY YIELD TABLE SUMMARY FOR DOUGLAS FIR AND WESTERN HEMLOCK* SPECIES SITE STAND DENSITY CLASSES (% of;average B.A., 9.1\" & + per acre) CLASS ; : 1-50% 51-80% 81-120% 121-150% 151 + % (OPEN) (SPARSE) (NORMAL) (DENSE) (VERY DENSE) YIELD IN CUBIC FEET AND ROTATION AGE IN BRACKETS HEMLOCK 1 2160 (60) 6017 (70) 10023 (74) 15411 (77) 18631 (86) 2 4067 (120) 6024 (110) 8844 (110) 13328 (114) 19069 (120) 3 1815 (110) 1809 (80) 3081 (85) 5453 (85) 7178 (104) DOUGLAS- 1 4844 (78) 5355 (64) 10511 (75) 13393 (71) 13271 (70) FIR 2 2398 (70) 5219 (80) 8046 (79) 11283 (83) 12054 (72) 3 2033 (114) 2632 (100) 3108 (82) 4303 (80) 6661 (80) * For each species, values have not been harmonized for a l l s i t e and stand density classes. The values given are those from sorted data summaries only. 4.236 Summary of cost and revenue data. Cost and revenue data tend to be very v a r i a b l e depending on t h e i r source and method of estimation. A considerable discrepancy was observed between B.C. Forest Service ap-praised costs for logging i n Paleface and Depot Creeks ( A p r i l 1974 appraisal sheet) and those quoted by Cattermole Timber Ltd. (Richard-son pers. comm.) who a c t u a l l y logged these drainages. In t h i s regard, the Council of Forest Industries (Ross fpers. comm.) f e l t that Forest Service appraisals were about 10 per cent too low on average. For purposes of comparison, a l l three cost a l t e r n a t i v e s were included i n the analysis (Table V). Average market prices for A p r i l 1974, for the major species under consideration were obtained from the B.C. Forest Service Vancouver D i s t r i c t o f f i c e . In order to have three a l t e r n a t i v e revenue assumptions, a r b i t r a r y 'high' or 'low' estimates were also included (Table V). These costs and revenues were assumed for the estimation of cash flow from harvesting the e x i s t i n g timber crop i n both drainages. In view of the uncertainty of cash flows from the future crop, i t was decided to use current stumpage prices for Douglas-fir and western hemlock instead of c a l c u l a t i n g revenues and costs separately. A r b i t r a r y high and low al t e r n a t i v e s were also used (Table V). The fundamental assumption was made that r e l a t i v e costs and prices would remain constant over time. The evaluatory procedure would have^been far more complex had changes i n demand, technological improvements and d i f f e r e n t rates of cost and p r i c e increases been taken into account. Three rates of i n t e r e s t were used to discount the costs and revenues from harvesting the e x i s t i n g and successor crops. A 6 per cent rate was considered to be a r e a l i s t i c value for the long run s o c i a l rate of return for Government in v e s t -67 TABLE V SUMMARY OF COST AND REVENUE DATA Cost or Revenue item. A l t e r n a t i v e s ($)* A B C Costs Yarding and skidding costs/cunit 10.35 11.38 11.44 Log Transportation costs/cunit 12.90 14.19 12.23 Contractual costs/cunit 0.15 00:16 0.15 Administrative costs/cunit ,2.45 .2^69 _ ** Forestry costs/cunit 0.20 0.22 0.50 Log making costs/cunit 3.05 3.35 3.00 Operational overhead'icost/cunit 7.70 8.47 12.19 Main road cost per mile 24,091 26,500 37,500 Branch road cost per mile 24,091 26,500 55,000 Spur road cost per mile 24,091 26,500 55,000 Reopened road cost per mile 5,000 5,500 10,000 Road maintenance cost per mile 600 660 2,000 Cost of decked bridge s(50f span, 100 ton max.) 4,000 4,400 8,000 Cost of d i r t f i l l e d ' bridge (50'span, 100 ton max. ) 1,300 1,430 4,500 Cost of 72'' s t e e l c ulvert c 1,000 1,100 1,500 Cost of wooden culvert : O 150 165 300 Total cost for one planted tree 0.17 0.19 0.20 Revenues Douglas-fir s e l l i n g p r i c e per cunit 60 73 80 Western Hemlock s e l l i n g p r i c e per cunit 60 60 66 Amabilis f i r s e l l i n g p r i c e per cunit 58 60 64 Western red-cedar s e l l i n g p r i c e per :unit 60 60 66 Yellow cedar s e l l i n g p r i c e per cunit . 255 255 280 Douglas-fir stumpage p r i c e per cunit 19 13 21 Western hemlock stumpage p r i c e per cunit 8 13 9 *Cost a l t e r n a t i v e s A B C ; re s p e c t i v e l y B.C.F.S., C.O.F.I., Cattermole Timber Ltd. (Only one B.C.F.S. road cost f i g u r e was given i n the appraisal f o r a l l roads.) **Cattermole Timber Ltd. estimate of administration costs i s combined with operational overheads. ments. Other values of 8 per cent and 10 per cent were used to e-valuate s e n s i t i v i t y to i n t e r e s t rates. 4.237 Description of the computer model used to evaluate net present worth. A computer program was prepared i n order to c a l c u l a t e the above mentioned cash flows over time, and to discount them to the present for comparison (Appendix I I ) . The adopted pro-cedure was as follows: Each data card read by the program represented a c e r t a i n year of a given harvesting operation, where either roads were being constructed and/or timber was harvested. Altogether 30 items of information were coded on each card, as shown i n Table VI. These data enabled the computer to cal c u l a t e a l l costs and revenues for that p a r t i c u l a r year, as well as estimating any planting costs and the net value of the successor crop on any areas that had been harvested. These present and future costs and revenues were then discounted to the present by one of the three a l t e r n a t i v e rates of int e r e s t and stored. The same procedure was adopted f o r each year of a given operation, and repeated for each rate of cut assumption, drainage and rate of i n t e r e s t and stored. Al summary-flow chart--out-l±riingvthis>foianiof'i8ensitivity. analysis';is'-'shown-in'.Figure - 1 0 ? .Afnumb.er of additiorial-'assumptions had :to .be made\" withuregard;to \"the leave' periods-requireduin. guideMhes:-' • ••y.n -~ - V r . ir> • IC o 1\\.jrcA: t o t a l oiiilO years rmust .elap^seibe.tween-Eeons'ecufiv.e\"harve'st-a : '!'.—ing. p.assesG_ i f • •\"••1.JL\" - '.'^az^^lonh\" 2. Transverse v a l l e y firebreaks ^ - w i l d l i f e preserved'ireasand- .. • streami-prdtection b e l t s are harvested 20 years a f t e r the TABLE VI LIST OF DATA CARD PARAMETERS Computer Code Description CREEK Drainage number. Rate of cut assumption number. OPERAT^ Operation number. YR Year. GNAC No. of acres of good s i t e harvested (N. aspect). MNAC No. of acres of medium s i t e harvested (N. aspect). PNAC No. of acres of poor s i t e harvested (N. aspect).. GSAC No. of acres of good s i t e harvested (S. aspect). MSAC No. of acres of medium s i t e harvested (S. aspect). PSAC No. of acres of poor s i t e harvested (S. aspect), TA Total no. of acres harvested. CCRATN Av. cleareut s i z e r a t i n g for N. aspected s i t e s . CCRATS Av. cleareut s i z e r a t i n g for S. aspected s i t e s . NER Av. e l e v a t i o n range for N. aspected cleareut s i t e s . SER Av. elevation range f o r S. aspected cleareut s i t e s . TVOL To t a l volume harvested for a l l species (M cf.) FVOL Douglas-fir volume (M cf.) HVOL Western hemlock volume (M cf.) BVOL Western red-cedar volume (M cf.) BVOL Amabilis f i r volume (M cf.) CYVOL Yellow cedar volume l(M cf.) MAIN Main roads constructed (Miles) BRANCH Branch roads constructed (Miles) SPUR Spur roads constructed\"(Miles) REOPEN Roads reopened (Miles) MTCE Roads maintained (Miles) BRIG 1 No. of decked bridges constructed. BRIG 2 No. of d i r t - f i l l e d bridges constructed. BGCULV No. of s t e e l culverts constructed. SMCULV No. of wooden culverts constructed. FIGURE 10 FLOW CHART SHOWING ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS FOR NET PRESENT WORTH MODEL. Interest Rate Cost and Revenue Assumptions Slashburning Species Successor Crop Density No. of Trees to Plant Douglas-fir 5 density classes Western hemlock—»• 5 density classes * Western hemlock—*5 density classes Optimistic, average & pess i m i s t i c assumptions for each density c l a s s (for slashburned areas o n l y ) . 8 (as above) 10 (as above) o main body of timber has been removed. Furthermore, these have to be harvested i n two passes to comply with the guidelines. 3. The problem of the duration of Environmental Protection Forests i n Depot Creek (under the Severe S i t e Guidelines) was approached i n two ways. The f i r s t a l t e r n a t i v e was that t h i s forest would 'never' be harvested, and secondly that i t could be harvested 40 years a f t e r the main body of tim-ber had been removed - together with other temporarily de-ferred areas. The computer program was designed to p r i n t out a matrix of 134 net present worth values for each of the assumptions i l l u s t r a t e d i n Figure 10. One of these matrices was calculated f or each rate of cut assumption, operation, drainage and rate of i n t e r e s t . A l i s t of the t i t l e s of these matrices i s shown i n Table VII. 4.238 Results of the a n a l y s i s . A number of features were immediately apparent when examining these r e s u l t s . The range of net present worth values for any given matrix was found to be comparatively small. This implied that the e f f e c t of species di f f e r e n c e s , cost assumptions, number of trees to plant ( i n the case of a r t i f i c i a l regeneration) and the density of the successor crop were not very s i g n i f i c a n t . This observation may be contrasted with the considerable differences observed between operations, i n t e r e s t rates and rate of cut assump-tions i n that order of importance. In order that the l a t t e r e f f e c t s could be i l l u s t r a t e d more e f f e c t i v e l y , the range and mean value were calculated f or each matrix and these are presented i n Table VIII. In view of the small differences observed for other f a c t o r s , i t was TABLE VII LIST OF TITLES OF NET PRESENT WORTH MATRICES. U?,'&s®t3-lW,& QdV'kZ DRAINAGE OPERATION RATE OF CUT ASSUMPTION PALEFACE CREEK PRE-1972 GUIDELINES Actual + Average cut per year PALEFACE CREEK PRE-1972 GUIDELINES Average cut per year PALEFACE CREEK ACTUAL OPERATION Actual + average cut per year PALEFACE CREEK 1972 GUIDELINES Actual + average cut per year PALEFACE CREEK 1972 GUIDELINES Average cut per year DEPOT CREEK PRE-1972 GUIDELINES Actual + average cut per year DEPOT CREEK PRE-1972 GUIDELINES Average cut per year DEPOT CREEK ACTUAL OPERATION Actual + average cut per year DEPOT CREEK 1972 GUIDELINES Actual + average cut per year DEPOT CREEK 1972 GUIDELINES Average cut per year DEPOT CREEK SEVERE SITE GUIDELINES Actual + average cut per year (E.P.F. PERMANENT) DEPOT CREEK SEVERE SITE GUIDELINES A v e r a g e cut per year (E.P.F. PERMANENT) DEPOT CREEK SEVERE SITE GUIDELINES Actual + average cut per year (E.P.F. SEMI-PERMANENT) DEPOT CREEK SEVERE SITE GUIDELINES Average cut per year (E.P.F. SEMI-PERMANENT) riot? considered worthwhile to, uhder/take;any sophisticated analysis of those r e s u l t s . Table IX shows the observed reductions i n net present worth when 'pre - 1972 Guideline Operations' are compared with other operations. In view of the apparent importance a t t r i b u t e d to the successor crop i n the guidelines, i t was considered i n t e r e s t i n g to ca l c u l a t e the percentage of the t o t a l net present value that was at t r i b u t a b l e to the successor crop. This required only a s l i g h t -i-i m o dification to the computer program, and a. summary of the r e s u l t s f o r the 8 per cent rate of i n t e r e s t a l t e r n a t i v e i s shown i n Table X. Although these values frequently d i f f e r e d by a factor of 10 within any given matrix, t h e i r absolute magnitude suggested that further analyses were unnecessary. TABLE VIII RANGE AND MEAN VALUES OF NET PRESENT WORTH MATRICES FOR PALEFACE AND DEPOT CREEKS* Drainage Interest Rate Cutting Rate (Actual and/or average) Range and Mean Values of Net Present Worth Matrices ( in $00) Pre-1972 Actual 1972 Severe Site Severe S i t e Guideline Operation Guideline Guidelines Guidelines Operation Operation (E.P.F. Perm- (E.P.F. Semi-anent) permanent) Range Mean Range Mean Range Mean Range Mean Range Mean Paleface 6% Act + Av 9144- 12504 9713- 11075 5661- 7851 Creek 15864 12437 10041 8% II 8089- 11040 8337- 9524 4657- 6497 - - - -13991 10711 8337 10% II 7181- 9782 7263- 8314 3910- 5493 - - - -- 12392 9364 7075 6% Av 9903- 13435 - — 6500- 8834 - - - -16966 11168-= 8% II 8958- 12127 — _ 5562- 7575 - - - -15295 9588 10% II 8133- 10990 — - 4853- 6627 - - - -13847 8400 Depot 6% Act + Av 13614- 18295 11105- 15516 8913- 12580 6632- 9031 6499- 8876 Creek 22976 19927 16246 11430 11252 8% II 13054- 17528 10469 14623 8144- 11536 5844- 7884 5.742- 7858 22002 18776 14927 10123 9973 10% II 12558- 16843 9968- 13913 7575- 10758 5264- 7212 5198- 7129 21127 17858 13940 9160 9060 6% Av 12447- 16425 — — 8222- 11348 5396- 7667 5278- 7528 20403 14474 9937 9778 8% II 11384- 15083 — — 7214- 10019 4524- 6504 4437- 6397 18782 12823 8484 8356 10% II 10438- 13890 — — 6441- 8999 3883- 5648 3829- 5580 17342 11556 7413 7330 Paleface Creek: Total a v a i l a b l e mature volume = 108610 C c f . ; t o t a l area = 1304 acres. Depot Creek: To t a l a v a i l a b l e mature volume = 113260 C c f . ; t o t a l area = 1057 acres. TABLE IX PERCENT REDUCTION IN PRESENT NET WORTH OF OTHER OPERATIONS COMPARED TO THE PRE-1972 GUIDELINE OPERATION Drainage Interest Rate Cutting Rate Pre-1972 Guideline Operation Percent Reduction i n Net Present Worth Actual Operation 1972 Guideline Operation Severe Site Guidelines (E.P.F. Permanent) Severe S i t e Guidelines (E.P.F. Semi Permanent) Paleface 6% Act + Av 0 -11% -37% Creek 8% 0 -14% -41% 10% ' 0 -15% -44% 6% ) 0 - -34% 8% Av 0 - -38% 10% 0 - -40% Depot 6% Act + Av 0 -15% -31% -51% -51% Creek 8% &r 0 -16% -34% -55% -55% 10% 0 -17% -36% -57% -58% 6% 0 - -31% -53% -54% 8% Av. 0 - -34% -57% -58% 10% 0 - -35% -59% -60% TABLE X RANGE AND MEAN VALUES OF THE PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL NET PRESENT WORTH CONTRIBUTED BY THE SUCCESSOR CROP Drainage Interest Cutting Range and Mean Values of Percentage of Total Net Present Worth Contributed by the Successor Crop. Rate Rate (Actual and/or average) Pre-1972 Guideline Operation .Actual Operation 1972 Guideline Operation Severe Site Guideline Operation (E.P.F. Perm-anent ) Severe Site Guideline Operation (E.P.F. Semi-Permanent) • • ' • . . . Range Mean Range Mean Range Mean Range Mean Range Mean Paleface Creek 8% Act + Av .00493-.31308 0.15900 .00847-.50241 0.25544 .01337-.66763 0.34050 - -Av .00497-.30704 0.15600 - - .01409-.67614 0.34512 - -Depot Creek 8% Act + Av .01386-.18238 0.09812 .01415-.20896 0.11155 .01821-.31257 0.16539 .02635- 0.21022 .39409 .02595- 0.20944 .39294 Av .01466-.19885 0.10675 - - .01850-.28835 0.15343 .02809- 0.23689 .44569 .02771 0.23649 .44527 In general, slashburning and planting of Douglas-fir r e s u l t i n g i n a 'very dense\" successor crop gave the highest percentage contribution.^ The lowest values under the assumptions made were associated with no slashburning and an open-successor crop of western hemlock. 4.239 Discussion of Results. The r e s u l t s of t h i s analysis showed a considerable decline i n net present worth of guideline operations when compared to pre-1972 guideline operations. This reduction was not o f f s e t to any appreciable extent by improvements i n successor crop status e.g. by reduced regeneration l a g , l e s s trees to plant, reduced r o t a t i o n age or higher successor crop'volumesi In- fact,- the.:percen-tage of t o t a l net present worth a t t r i b u t e d to the successor crop was found to range from .005% to .313% before the guidelines to between .013% and .676% a f t e r the guidelines. The apparent improvement i n i t s s i g n i f i c a n c e a f t e r the guidelines however, was due to the o v e r a l l decline i n net present worth rather than an improved absolute value per se. The conclusion may be drawn, that i n f i n a n c i a l terms very l i t t l e emphasis should be placed on c o s t l y measures designed to im-prove successor crop performance. Even with f a i r l y generous assump-tio n s , the expected returns appear to be very low. Assessing the s i g n i f i c a n c e of the observed decline i n net present value proved to be an i n t e r e s t i n g problem. The question may be asked, 'Does t h i s a c t u a l l y constitute a cost, and i f so, now w i l l i t be borne?' I t should be remembered that the stream of costs and revenues used i n t h i s model were rel a t e d to a fixed area i . e . ei t h e r Paleface or Depot Creek. In other words the implementation of guidelines resulted i n a reduction i n net present worth within a f i x e d area. However, the Dewdney P.S.Y.U. currently has a supply of mature timber which could, by i t s e l f , l a s t f o r at l e a s t 90 years without consideration of the growth of immature stands or improvements i n u t i l i z a t i o n standards. Stated d i f f e r e n t l y , there may be no cost associated with deferring timber harvest within a given area because there are a l t e r n a t i v e s a v a i l a b l e . Economic theory suggests that net present worth must be maximized with respect to the most l i m i t i n g f actor. The question i s , 'What i s the l i m i t i n g f a c t o r ? ' It appears that the l i m i t i n g f a c t o r i s the extent of the area developed i n order to obtain a given allowable annual cut. Thus, the most appropriate c r i t e r i o n would be to maximize net present worth (or economic rent) per developed acre. Other c r i t e r i a , such as maximizing net present worth per $100 invested would not be appropriate here, because under the concept of sustained y i e l d each acre i s given equal p r i o r i t y regardless of d i f f e r e n t i a l rent functions. The fact that very c o s t l y r e f o r e s t a t i o n a c t i v i t i e s are being undertaken at high elevations, i n contrast to more intensive management of good s i t e s at low eleva-tions i s a case i n point. The c r i t e r i o n of maximizing net present worth per developed acre was applied to the r e s u l t s shown i n Table VIII. Each value was divided by the t o t a l acreage of the appropriate drainage, because the 'developed' area remains constant i n each case (the area p h y s i c a l l y harvested at a given point i n time w i l l of course d i f f e r ) . Results of these c a l c u l a t i o n s are given i n Table XI. The following conclusions may be drawn from t h i s a n a l y s i s : The objective of sustained y i e l d management within the Dewdney P.S.Y.U. i s the perpetuation of long term timber supplies, at a constant or increasing l e v e l . This i s achieved by harvesting a fixed volume over a c e r t a i n area every year, as determined by the Hanzlik formula plus an area/volume allotment check. Logging guidelines have been introduced i n order to enhance environmental values and possibly fores-t r y values over these l i m i t e d developed areas. The previous analysis showed that by operating over a more extensive area, the p o t e n t i a l TABLE XI NET PRESENT WORTH VALUES PER DEVELOPED ACRE AND PER CUNIT*. Drainage Interest Cutting Rate Rate (Actual and/or average) Pre-1972 Guideline Operation Actual Operation 1972 Guideline Operation SevereSSite Guideline Operation (E.P.F. Perm-anent) Severe Site Guideline Operation (E.P.F. Semi-Permanent) Net present worth values ($) per developed acre (and per cunit) Paleface 6% Act + Av 959 (11.51) 849 (10.20) 602 (7.23) _ _ Creek 8% 847 (10.16) 730 (8.77) 498 (5.98) - -10% \" 750 (9.01) 638 (7.65) 421 (5.06) - -6% Av 1030 (12.37) - 677 (8.13) - -8% \" 930 (11.17) 581 (6.97) - -10% 843 (10.12) 508 (6.10) - -Depot 6% Act + Av 1731 (16.15) 1470 (13.70) 1190 (11.11) 856 (7 .97) 840 (7.84) Creek 8% \" 1658 (15.48) 1383 (12.91) 1091 (10.19) 746 (6 .96) 743 (6.94) 10% V 1593 (14.87) 1316 (12.28) 1018 (9.50) 682 (6 .37) 674 (6.29) 6% Av 1554 (14.50) - 1076 (10.02) 725 (6 .77) 712 (6.64) 8% \" 1427 (13.32) - 948 (8.85) 615 (5 .74) 605 (5.65) 10% 1314 (12.26) — 851 (7.95) 534 (4 .99) 528 (4.93) * Paleface Creek: t o t a l a v a i l a b l e mature volume = 108610 C c f . ; t o t a l area = 1304 acres. Depot Creek: t o t a l a v a i l a b l e mature volume = 113260 C c f . ; t o t a l area = 1057 acres. economic rent (expressed i n terms of net present worth) of each de-veloped acre was d r a s t i c a l l y reduced even when harvesting and road construction cost increases were ignored. We can assume that the i m p l i c i t objective of forest management i n B.C. i s to maximize the p o t e n t i a l returns from timber and other resources i n those l i m i t e d areas which are developed each year; i t i s doubtful however, that the 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines are capable of achieving t h i s . It i s u n l i k e l y that the p o t e n t i a l l o s s i n economic rent from the timber resource can be j u s t i f i e d i n terms of improvements i n other resource values i n a l l areas on the Coast where these guidelines are being applied. 4.24 CO.F.I method. 4.241 Introduction and basic assumptions. In contrast to the previous a n a l y s i s , the CO.F.I. model was designed to analyse s p e c i f i c cost increases (on a per cunit basis) a t t r i b u t a b l e to improving road, bridge and culvert construction requirements and harvesting p r a c t i c e s under the 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines. The r e s u l t s of t h i s analysis were summarized i n a b r i e f to Mr. I.T. Cameron (then, Chief Forester of the B.C. Forest Service), o u t l i n i n g the Council's main objections to these guidelines. The basic assumptions made i n t h i s a n a l y s i s were outlined i n discussions with Shebbeare (pers. comm.) and these were then applied to the data obtained for both Paleface and Depot Creeks. A s i m i l a r undertaking was not considered for the Severe Site Guidelines: any cost increases demonstrated by t h i s model would also be incurred i f these guidelines were adopted. In order to im-prove on the o r i g i n a l CO.F.I. model, costs were updated and a l t e r -native leave periods and i n t e r e s t rates also incorporated. March 1974 rental rates for T.L.A. operations (Wellburn pers. comm.) were increased by 10 per cent to approximate machinery costs for January 1975. The use of rental rates avoided consideration of overhead ' costs which would have made calculations unnecessarily complex. Other costs cited in the text were also obtained from Wellburn. The basic assumptions used in this model are as follows: 1. The average C.U. volume per acre on the Coast is 75 cunits. 2. The average C.U. production per shift for a steel spar on the Coast is 75 cunits. 3. The average Coast operation gets 175 shifts per year, i.e. logs 175 acres per year. 4. At 550 f t . yarding (800 f t . on long corners), a f u l l set-ting i s 25 to 30 acres, and roads are 17 chains apart. 5. A l l costs and cost increases of roads, bridges and reopened roads due to the guidelines are allowed for in stumpage appraisal calculations. 6. Profit and risk before and after the guidelines are constant, and may therefore be ignored in this evaluation. 4.242 Road costs. 1. Before Guidelines. An^average Coast road i s built by grade shovel at approximately 1% stations of subgrade per shift i.e. 5 miles per year at 175 shifts per year. Rock work (cat and d r i l l ) requires approximately 100 shifts. Ballast (loader, two trucks and spreader cat) takes 50 shifts. Roughly 7 culverts per mile are re-quired with bridges extra. COSTS (for 5 miles of road per year) $ Shovel 175 s h i f t s @ $387 67725 D r i l l 100 s h i f t s m $374 37400 D8 cat 100 s h i f t s @ $409 40900 Loader (Cat 966C) 50 s h i f t s @ $290 14520 Trucks (35iton) 2 x 50 s h i f t s @ $238 23800 Spreader (Cat 16) 50 s h i f t s @ $284 14200 Culverts 7 per mile x 5 miles @ $150 ea. 5250 Foreman 17000 220795 . One mile of road costst$44,159 (say $44,000). 2. A f t e r Guidelines. It was assumed that the 'favourable' s o i l moisture conditions s p e c i f i e d f o r road construction under the guidelines, would reduce the season to 5 months req u i r i n g double s h i f t i n g . P r o d u c t i v i t y f a l l s o f f on the night s h i f t , supervision and maintenance are poorer and wage premiums are required. Poorer q u a l i t y . ' labour i s a v a i l a b l e for a short year. I t was assumed that h a l f the number of culverts per mile need to be upgraded to 72\" s t e e l @ $1500 i n s t a l l e d , to allow for the 25 year storm. Tightening l o -cation requirements was assumed to add an average of 5 per cent to costs. COSTS (for 5 miles of road per year) $ Shovel, 110 day s h i f t s @ $387 plus 80 night 42570 s h i f t s @ 80% e f f i c i e n c y , 25% higher i'-.jr'J maintenance; 15<7hr. labour premium, 34150 D r i l l , 60 daysshifts @\"' $374 •arid.'-5:0',rii|ht s h i f t s (as above) @ $385. \" 41690 D8 cat, 60 day s h i f t s @ $409 and 50 night s h i f t s (as above) @ $430. 46040 Loader, 50 s h i f t s @ $290. 14500 Trucks, 2 x 50 s h i f t s @ $238. 23800 Spreader cat, 50 s h i f t s @ $284. 14200 Culverts, 18 @ $150 2700 17 @ $1500 25500 Foreman @ $17,000 per year 17000 Night foreman, 80 s h i f t s @ $100 8000 270160 82 5% added costs (location charges) 13508 283669 . . One mile of road costs $56,734 (say $57,000)*. 4.243 Bridge costs 1. Before Guidelines. In the Chilliwack Provincial Forest, the 'average' bridge i s d i r t - f i l l e d , has a 50 f t . span and is designed to take an impact load of 100 tons. Assuming $100 a lineal foot, cost is $5000 ea. 2. After Guidelines. A design i s required to meet a 25 year flood; extra care in construction to meet fisheries requirements and some relocations, are assumed to add about 20% to costs. Bridges need to be reconstructed, i f used in the second and subsequent passes. Assuming $120 a lineal foot, cost is $6000 ea. 4.244 Road maintenance. 1. Before Guidelines. Spur and branch roads are assumed to require maintenace for an average of three years, including the year of construction. Cost i s assumed to be $2000 per mile year. The reader i s drawn to the attention of a study of the environmental costs in logging road design and construction, which was published after the above calculations were completed. Ottens (1975) used the Wilson Creek Forest Road project in the Nelson Forest District from 1972 to 1974 as a case study to develop and verify a cost accounting system to determine the cost of imposing environmental and aesthetic constraints on logging road design and construction. Ottens calculated that the extra cost of meeting B.C. Forest Service standards for environmental protection, was 18.6% of the total construction cost. His figures were $55,472 per mile of road without environmental expenditures, and $68,159 with these expenditures. Although the absolute values of these figures are considerably higher than those assumed in this thesis, the percentage increase due to environmental protection constraints arevvery similar. 2. A f t e r Guidelines. F i r e access roads have to be main-tained u n t i l the l a s t remaining t r a c t of timber i n the area has been removed. After spur and branch roads have been abandoned for several years i n between passes, these w i l l require reopening where necessary for future timber harvests. Renovation i s assumed to be approximately 20% of the o r i g i n a l cost, and includes removal of brush, repair of s l i d e s and washouts, replacement of c u l v e r t s as well as major r e b a l l a s t i n g and d i t c h i n g : . 20% of $57,000 i s $11,400 (say $11,000). 4.245 Other logging costs. 1. Before Guidelines. The figures below, were obtained from Richardson (pers. comm.) and represent h i s i n t e r p r e t a t i o n of the aver-age costs incurred for logging Paleface and Depot Creeks i n 1974 figu r e s . (Operational overheads and administrative expenses repre-sent an average cost per cunit for a l l harvesting operations within T.S.H.L. A00050, operated by Cattermole Timber Ltd.) COSTS* ($/cunit) Yarding and skidding 11.44 Log Transport 12.23 Contractual costs 0.15 Forestry costs (excluding 10 f t . clause) 0.38 Log making 3.00 Operational overheads & administrative expenses excluding i n t e r e s t charges) 12.19 39.39 2. After Guidelines. The above-mentioned costs are also applicable a f t e r the guidelines, plus c e r t a i n miscellaneous cost *;;Costaitems'arerbased on B.C.F.S. Appraisals Method; component costs may be found i n any B.C.F.S. Appraisal Manual. items as f o l l o w s : COSTS ( P h y s i c a l operating) F a l l i n g 10 f t . t r e e s P l a n t i n g deciduous tr e e s along water courses; ( i . e . 300 ch. creeks per sq. m i l e ; 1/3 plan t e d ; 1 ch. wide @ $100 per acre) F i l t e r S t r i p s (i.'e. assuming 1/3 roads along creeks r e q u i r e s t r i p s , which delay l o g g i n g f o r 2 years and add to subsequent l o g g i n g costs) W i l d l i f e c o r r i d o r s ( i . e . take out 5% of the area form every 10th watershed, adding 17c/cunit to lo g g i n g costs when they occur). Recreation (add 18c/cunit to logging costs i n every 5th watershed). Surround of uniqe features ( i . e . take out 1% of the area from every 2nd watershed.) S p e c i a l streambank treatment (add 50% to logging c o s t s f o r every 2nd watershed). Mo d i f i e d s e t t i n g shapes (add one l a n d i n g f o r every 5th s e t t i n g ) . E x t r a planning and engineering. Perimeter blowdown (e x t r a exposed perimeters add to blowdown, which increases salvage c o s t s ) . T o t a l costs a f t e r g u i d e l i n e s : Logging costs before g u i d e l i n e s . Miscellaneous costs a f t e r g u i d e l i n e s . ($/cunit) .0.12 ; 0.02 0.36 0.02 0.04 0.01 0.17 0.10 0.36 0.17 1.37 39.39 1.37 40.76 I t should be n o t i c e d that l o g transportation, costs per c u n i t were assumed to be constant, before ;. and a f t e r the g u i d e l i n e s . Improve-ments i n road c o n s t r u c t i o n and design may improve average' h a u l i n g i--speeds, but the average h a u l i n g distance per c u n i t i s a l s o i n c r e a s -ed because of the a l t e r n a t e patch c u t t i n g system. 4.246 Moving and s i t e improvement costs No moving and s i t e improvement costs were included i n t h i s e v a l u a t i o n . A minimum f a c i l i t y camp and work shop were s i t u a t e d at the entrance to Paleface Creek, f o r use when log g i n g t h i s creek and Depot Creek. The a d d i t i o n a l moving i n and moving out costs for these mobile f a c i l i t i e s as a result of guide-lines were assumed to be negligible. In more inaccessible and remote areas of Coastal B.C., these costs would be appreciably higher because of the more complete nature of camps and shops. Moving costs would include the following at the start and finish of each logging pass: 1. Depreciation on buildings due to moving damage. 2. Building positioning, wiring, water and sewage hobk-up. 3. Loading and unloading buildings. 4. Barging between sites. 5. Transfer of fuel and tanks. 6. Administration and supervision. The capital costs of site improvements would include campsite pre-paration and the establishment of a dump and booming ground. These f a c i l i t i e s would have to be reopened at the start of the second and subsequent passes. As regards Cattermole Timber's operations, both dump and booming ground are in permanent locations on the Fraser River next to their m i l l . 4.247 Interest charges Two rates of interest were used in this calculation, 6 per cent and 10 per cent, in order to find out the sensitivity of the f i n a l result. Calculations were extremely long and time consuming, and, therefore, w i l l be not shown in detail. A brief description of the method is as follows: Interest charges on the average unamortized investment from the previous year were added on to the latter figure, giving the total investment at the start of the year. The total investment in bridges, new roads and reopened roads in that year were added up (figures were taken from the basic 86 data for the net present worth a n a l y s i s ) , and amortized by the pro-portion of stumpage allocated to these costs m u l t i p l i e d by the year's harvest. The differ e n c e represented the net investment during that year, which may be p o s i t i v e or negative depending on how many roads and bridges were constructed i n that year. This figure was e i t h e r added or subtracted from the investment at the s t a r t of the year, giving the t o t a l unamortized investment at the end of the year. Interest was charged on the average investment during the year, i . e . the investments at the s t a r t and end of the year divided by two. The same procedure was repeated for each year of harvesting and, or, road construction. The following example i l l u s t r a t e s the c a l c u l a -t i o n of i n t e r e s t charges for the second year of the pre-1972 Guide-l i n e Operation f o r Paleface Creek: YEAR 2 Unamortized investment at s t a r t of year: Interest costs from previous year: Investment at s t a r t of year: Investment during year: Roads, 1.4 mi. @ $44000 Amortized by stumpage: Roads: $6.40/C cf Bridges:$0.28/C cf 13140 Crfcf. x.$6-,68 Net investment during year: Unamortized investment during year: Average investment for year: 146160 + 120425 $139200 $ 6960 $146160 $62040 \"¥$.87775 -$ 25735 $120425 =$133293 Interest charge on average investment @ 10% =$ 13329 At the end of the c a l c u l a t i o n , the t o t a l unamortized investment was divided by the t o t a l harvested volume i n order to obtain the i n t e r e s t charge per cunit. In view of the difference of opinion as to the length of the leave period and when firebreaks, w i l d l i f e reserved areas and f i s h e r i e s protection b e l t s should be harvested, several d i f f e r e n t a l t e r n a t i v e s were quant i f i e d : 1. The t o t a l developable volume w i l l be harvested i n four passes i . e . two passes for the majority of the timber, and two passes for remaining areas. A t o t a l of 10 years w i l l elapse between each pass. 2. As above, but only with 5 years between each pass. 3. Firebreaks, w i l d l i f e reserved areas and f i s h e r i e s protec-t i o n b e l t s w i l l be excluded from future logging. A t o t a l of 10 years w i l l elapse between passes. 4. As above, but only with 5 years between each pass. For purposes of s i m p l i c i t y only the 'average cut per year' data previously used, were assumed i n t h i s a n a l ysis. 4.148 Results of the analysis. Results of the CO.F.I. method of analysis are presented i n Table XII to XV. The f i r s t two tables i l l u s t r a t e the cost increases under four d i f f e r e n t i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s of the guide-l i n e s , at an i n t e r e s t rate of 10 per cent; the other two tables show the r e s u l t s of c a l c u l a t i o n s using a 6 percent rate. These tables show that the i n t e r e s t charge not only showed the largest increase i n the guideline a l t e r n a t i v e s , but also was highly s e n s i t i v e to cL changes i n the i n t e r e s t rate. For Paleface Creek, at a 10 per cent rate of i n t e r e s t , i n t e r e s t charges rose from $1.48 per cunit before guidelines to a maximum of $97.47 for assumption E (Table XIII). Re-evaluation at the 6 per cent a l t e r n a t i v e gave a considerably smal-l e r increase, from $0.31 per cunit to $14.94 per cunit. This implies that c a l c u l a t i o n s of cost increases due to the guidelines w i l l d i f f e r very widely, depending on what rate of i n t e r e s t was assumed i n the c a l c u l a t i o n of i n t e r e s t charges. It was also evident that the leave period assumption was very important. Unamortized investments were TABLE XII SUMMARY OF COST IMPACT OF 1972 COAST LOGGING GUIDELINES FOR DEPOT CREEK ( i = 10%) Pre-Guidelines After 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines Assumption: A B C D E Tot a l Available Volume: 113260 i C c f . 92710 C c f . 92710 C cf. 113260 C c f . 113260 C c f . Tot a l Years to Harvest: 7 11 16 23 38 Costs Quantity $/C c f . Quantity $/C c f . Quantity $/C.cf. Quantity $/C c f . Quantity $/C c f . Roads (miles) 16.0 6.21 15.2 9.34 15.2 9.34 16.8 8.45 16.8 8.45 Bridges (units) 4 0.18 4 0.26 4 0.26 8 0.42 8 0.42 Road Mtce. (miles) 62.9 1.11 93 2.01 112.0 2.42 153.0 2.70 209.0 3.69 Reopened Roads (miles) - - 3.8 0.37 3.8 0.37 6.3 0.61 6.3 0.61 Interest Costs @ 10% 1.28 @ 10% 4.62 @ 10% 8.71 @ 10% 14.00 @ 10% 64.89 Other Logging Costs — 39.39 - 40.76 - 40.76 40.76 40.76 T o t a l : 48.17 57.36 61.86 66.94 118.82 Tot a l Harvesting Costs: $5.46 MM $5.32 MM $5.74 MM $7.58 MM $13.46 MM Key: Assumption A: Av. Cut/yr. - 21470 C cf. ; T o t a l volume : Ls harvested. Assumption B: Av. cut/yr. = 21470 C c f . ; 5 years between passes; firebreaks etc. not harvested. Assumption C: Av. cut/yr. = 21470 C c f . ; 10 years between passes ; firebreaks etc. not harvested. Assumption D: Av. cut/yr. = 21470 C c f . ; 5 years between passes; t o t a l volume i s harvested. Assumption E: Av. cut/yr. = 21470 C c f . ; 10 years between passes; t o t a l volume i s harvested. oo oo TABLE XIII SUMMARY OF COST IMPACT OF 1972 COAST LOGGING'GUIDELINES FOR PALEFACE CREEK ( i = 10%) Pre-Guidelines After 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines Assumption: A B C D E To t a l Available Volume:- 108610 C c f . f>90900 C c f . 90;.'900 C c f . 108610 C c f . 108610 C c f . Total Years to Harvest: ••io 14 19 26 41 Costs^ Quantity $/C c f . Quantity $/C cf. Quantity $/C c f . Quantity $/C c f . Quantity $/C c f . Roads (miles) 15.7 6.40 14.0 8.78 14.0 8.78 15.9 8.34 15.9 8.34 Bridges (units) 6 0.28 10 0.66 10 . 0.66 12 0.66 12 0.66 Road Mtce. (miles) 86.9 1.59 104.0 2.29 121.0 2.66 149.0 2.74 199.0 3.66 Reopened Roads (miles) - 6.6 0.80 6.6 0.80 6.6 0.67 6.6 0.67 Interest Costs @ 10% 1.48 @ 10% 5.07 @ 10% 9.95 @ 10% 18.96 @ 10% 97.47 Other Logging costs 39.39 - 40.76 40.76 40.76 - 40.76 T o t a l : 49.14 58.36 63.61 72.13 151.56 T o t a l Harvesting Costs: $5.34 MM $5.30 MM $5.78 MM $7.83 MM $16.46 MM Key: Assumption A: Av. cut/yr. = 13140 C c f . ; Tot a l volume i s harvested. Assumption B: Av. cut/yr. = 13140 C c f . ; 5 years between passes ; firebreaks etc. not harvested. Assumption C: Av. cut/yr. = 13140 C c f . ; 10 years between passes; firebreaks etc. not harvested. Assumption D: Av. cut/yr. = 13140 C c f . ; 5 years between passes ; t o t a l volume i s harvested. Assumption E: Av. cut/yr. = 13140 C c f . ; 10 years between passes; t o t a l volume i s harvested. OO TABLE XIV SUMMARY OF COST IMPACT OF 1972 COAST LOGGING GUIDELINES FOR DEPOT CREEK ( i = 6%) Pre-Guidelines ,„,, _ T . „ , . Afte r 1972 Coast Loggxng Guidelines Assumption: A B C D E To t a l Available Volume: 113260 C cf. 92710 C cf. 92710 C c f . 113260 C c f . 113260 C c f . Tot a l Years to Harvest: 7 11 16 23 38 Costs Quantity $/C c f . Quantity $/C c f . Quantity $/C c f . Quantity $/C c f . Quantity $/C c f . Roads (miles) 16.0 6.21 15.2 9.35 15.2 9.35 16.8 8.45 16.8 8.45 Bridges (units) 4 0.18 4 0.26 4 0.26 8 0.42 8 0.42 Road Mtce. (miles) 62.9 1.11 93.0 2.01 112.0 2.42 153.0 2.70 209.0 3.69 Reopened Roads (miles) - - 3.8 0.37 3.8 0.37 6.3 0.61 6.3 0.61 Interest Costs @ 6% 0.57 @ 6% 2.23 @ 6% 3.67 @ 6% 4.48 @ 6% 11.99 Other Logging Costs - 39.39 40.76 40.76 - 40.76 - 40.76 Tot a l : 47.46 54.98 56.83 57.42 65.92 Tota l Harvesting Costs: $5.38 MM $5.10 MM $5.27 MM $6.50 MM $7.47 MM Key: Assumption A. Av. cut/yr. = 21470 C c f . ; T o t a l volume i s harvested. B. Av. cut/yr. = 21470 C cf. ; 5 years between passes; firebreaks etc. not harvested. C. Av. cut/yr. = 21470 C c f . ; 10 years between passes ; firebreaks etc. not harvested. D. Av. cut/yr. = 21470 C cf. ; 5 years between passes; t o t a l volume i s harvested. E. Av. cut/yr. = 21470 C c f . ; 10 years between passes ; t o t a l volume i s harvested. V O o TABLE XV SUMMARY OF COST IMPACT OF 1972QC0AST LOGGING GUIDELINES FOR PALEFACE CREEK ( i = 6%) Pre-Guidelines A f t e r 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines Assumption : A B C D E T o t a l A v a i l a b l e Volume: 108610 C cf 90900 C cf. 90900 C cf. 108610 C c f . 108610 C cf. Total Years to Harvest: 10 14 19 26 41 Costs Quantity $/C cf. Quantity $/C c f . Quantity $/C cf . Quantity $/C cf. Quantity $/C c f . Roads (miles) 15.7 6. 40 14.0 8.78 14.0 8.78 15.9 8.34 15.9 8.34 Bridges (units) 6 0. 28 10 0.66 10 0.66 12 0.66 12 0.66 Road Mtce. (miles) 86.9 1. 59 104.0 2.29 121.0 2.66 149.0 2.74 199.0 3.66 Reopened Roads (miles) - 6.6 0.80 6.6 0.80 6.6 0.67 6.6 0.67 Interest Costs @ 6% 0.31 @ 6% 2.88 @ 6% 4.80 @ 6% 6.25 < a 6% 14.94 Other logging costs 39. 39 40.76 40.76 40.76 - 40.76 Tot a l : 47. 97 56.17 58.46 59.42 69.03 Total Harvesting Costs: $5.21 MM $5.11 MM $5.31 MM $6.45 M M $7.50 MM Key: -.-Assumption A. Av. cut/yr. = 13140 C c f . ; Total volume i s harvested. Assumption B. Av. cut/yr. = 13140 C c f . ; 5 years between passes; firebreaks etc. not harvested. Assumption C. Av. cut/yr. = 13140 C c f . ; 10 years between passes ; firebreaks etc. not harvested. Assumption D. Av. cut/yr. = 13140 C c f . ; 5 years between passes; t o t a l volume i s harvested. Assumption E. Av. cut/yr. = 13140 C c f . ; 10 years between passes ; t o t a l volume i s harvested. more than doubled over a 10 year leave period at a 10 per cent rate of i n t e r e s t , and road maintenance costs were also s i g n i f i c a n t l y i n -creased. The t o t a l cost of harvesting i n e i t h e r of the two d r a i n -ages shows an o v e r a l l decline i n assumption B when compared to the other four a l t e r n a t i v e s . This was because the increase i n cost per cunit i n t h i s guideline assumption was not great enough to o f f s e t the reduction i n volume harvested. The reader .should?. not'»:beu\"-misled into understanding t h i s to be a reduction i n harvesting costs per se under the guidelines. The volume not a v a i l a b l e i n these d r a i n -ages would have to be obtained elsewhere at the increased cost per cunit. 4.149 Discussion of r e s u l t s . The r e s u l t s of t h i s analysis show that regardless of the way i n which guidelines are interpreted and what i n t e r e s t rates are used i n the c a l c u l a t i o n , these are s t i l l sub-s t a n t i a l cost increases. A comparison of the increased logging costs per cunit with current market prices would i n d i c a t e that i f a l l the above-mentioned costs were taken into account i n stumpage pric e c a l c u l a t i o n s , a net d e f i c i t would r e s u l t . The s i z e of t h i s d e f i c i t would depend on what leave periods and i n t e r e s t rates were considered appropriate. These r e s u l t s c l e a r l y substantiate the fears recently expressed by Mr. W.E.L. Young (Chief Forester, B.C. Forest Service): \"...increasing costs of roads and environmental protection w i l l mean that within a decade the forest industry w i l l not be a net producer of revenue to the p r o v i n c i a l govern-ment.\" (McMurray, 1975b) Young mentioned the a d d i t i o n a l costs of government administration needed to assess equitable stumpage rates, as well as the higher costs of road b u i l d i n g associated with the logging guidelines. It should be remembered that i n the previous c a l c u l a t i o n s , the a d d i t i o n -a l cost of planning road locations and c u t t i n g block layout were those incurred by say a consulting firm i n preparing an acceptable c u t t i n g permit. Costs which are incurred by other government agencies for natural resource inventories i n proposed development areas, impact studies, and administrative expenses for c u t t i n g permit reviews have not been considered i n t h i s a n a l ysis. In view of the more extensive development areas proposed under the guidelines, these costs are l i k e l y to be s u b s t a n t i a l . In order to determine the increase i n logging costs due to guide-l i n e s i n the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest, cost increases per cunit were calculated from the r e s u l t s shown i n Tables XII to XV and m u l t i -p l i e d by the average annual C U . harvest between 1970 and 1974, i . e . 77088 cunits. Table XVI shows the range of possible t o t a l cost i n -creases incurred each year using both Paleface and Depot Creek cost assumptions. The t h i r d column represents a weighted average t o t a l yearly cost for both drainages. These r e s u l t s i n d i c a t e that under c e r t a i n assumptions, the t o t a l yearly cost increase for the C h i l l i -wack P r o v i n c i a l Forest i s not very large and may be o f f s e t by other benefits of the guidelines. Assuming that a 6 per cent i n t e r e s t rate i s s u i t a b l y representative of the long run s o c i a l rate of r e -turn, and that assumption E (ten year i n t e r v a l between a l l passes) i s the minimum acceptable (Ingram pers. comm.) the most r e a l i s t i c cost figure appears to be $1,423 MM. If primary firebreaks and other deferred areas are harvested more than 10 years a f t e r the main body of timber has been removed, t h i s figure would be considerably increased. TABLE XVI YEARLY LOGGING COST INCREASE ALTERNATIVES FOR THE CHILLIWACK PROVINCIAL FOREST ($000) Cost Basis: Paleface Creek Depot Creek Average Assumption i = 6% i = 10% i = 6% i = 10% i = 6% i = 10% B 632 711 580 708 606 709 C 809 1,115 722 1,055 765 1,085 D 883 1,7.72 768 1,447 824 1,606 E 1,623 7,895 1,423 5,446 1,521 6,645 Key: Assumption A. Assumption B. Assumption C. Assumption D. Assumption E. Av. cut/yr. Av. cut/yr. Av. cut/yr. Av. cut/yr. Av. cut/yr. 13140 Ccf; Total volume i s harvested. 13140 Ccf; 5 years between passes; firebreaks etc. not harvested. 13140 Ccf; 10 years between passes; firebreaks etc. not harvested. 13140 Ccf; 5 years between passes; total volume is harvested. 13140 Ccf; 10 years between passes; total volume i s harvested. 95 In order to determine f o r how long t h i s a d d i t i o n a l cost w i l l be incurred, some assumptions had to be made as to the size (and dura-tion) of the future harvest i n the Chilliwack. The 1962-3 Inventory Report for the Chilliwack P.W.C. (B.C.F.S., 1968), indicated a mature volume of about 4 MM cunits. I f i t can be assumed that the annual cut was approximately 80,000 cunits between the time of the l a s t inventory and the year of introduction of the Coast Logging Guide-l i n e s , then the t o t a l mature volume remaining at the end of 1972 would have been 3.2 MM cunits. Two years of harvest under the guide-l i n e s represent a removal of 160,000 cunits of timber from an area twice as large as i t would have been p r i o r to the guidelines ( i . e . as a r e s u l t of patch logging). Therefore, the 160,000 cunits i n uncut patches are unavailable f o r harvesting u n t i l the end of the chosen leave period. This leaves 2.88 MM cunits for harvesting on an alternate cut and leave b a s i s , at the s t a r t of 1975. Assuming that 30% of t h i s timber w i l l be deferred and/or regarded as p h y s i c a l l y i n a c c e s s i b l e f o r future harvesting, i t w i l l take approximately 12 years to complete the f i r s t logging pass. I f t h i s figure i s greater than the average leave period for a l l s i t e s , then, there may be continuity of supply f o r at le a s t 24 years (ignoring any u t i l i z a t i o n improvements or maturation of previously immature timber i n the mean-time). The a d d i t i o n a l yearly harvesting costs due to guidelines w i l l be incurred throught t h i s 24 year period. A rough estimate of the present value of these future costs was obtained by assuming that the $1,423 MM figu r e represented a constant cost annuity over the 24 year period. Discounted at a 6 per cent rate of i n t e r e s t , the present value was found to be approximately $17 MM. 4.2 Evaluation of intangible costs and b e n e f i t s . 4.21 Introduction The evaluation of intangible costs and b e n e f i t s ( i n the sense that they are produced and d i s t r i b u t e d i n the absence of a market mechanism) has made s i g n i f i c a n t headway i n recent years, e s p e c i a l l y i n the f i e l d of recreation. Coomber and Biswas (1973) provided an excellent up to date review of a number of monetary and non-monetary methods of evaluating environmental i n t a n g i b l e s . In general, i t appears that concern i s i n c r e a s i n g l y focusing on the hard core of relevant issues concerning intangible costs and b e n e f i t s and how we can go about making some useful estimates. Meaningful analyses have frequently been hindered i n the past by a lack of information concerning non-market values. Equally important i s an i n t u i t i v e f e e l i n g by many people that somehow the value of say hunting and f i s h i n g i s p r i c e l e s s or i s something that cannot be q u a n t i f i e d , and indeed should not be q u a n t i f i e d . However, i t i s obvious that no goods or services are p r i c e l e s s i n the sense of an i n f i n i t e p r i c e , and, furthermore, that there i s a d e f i n i t e i n d i v i d u a l and c o l l e c t i v e l i m i t to how much we w i l l give up to enjoy the services of any out-door recreation f a c i l i t y or to preserve some scenic value. Further-more, economics can take account of values of an aesthetic, deeply personal or even mystical nature (Knetsch and Davis, 1972). It appears that the two types of logging guidelines being i n -vestigated have a number of intangible costs and benefits which are p a r t i c u l a r l y d i f f i c u l t to assess. Not only have the e f f e c t s of the guidelines on the multiple resource to be determined over time, but also t h e i r a d d i t i o n a l value to society i n terms of improved f i s h i n g and hunting benefits and so on. Only with t h i s type of information available can a meaningful comparison be made with the f o r e s t r y costs and benefits already calculated. 4.21 Significance of Available Data. The majority of a v a i l a b l e data f o r resources other than f o r e s t r y have been quoted i n the section describing the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. These data are not very h e l p f u l i n assessing the absolute value of other resources, l e t along any ad-d i t i o n a l value derived from the guidelines. An in-depth review of forest research on environmental impacts and protection outside B.C may have revealed some useful r e l a t i o n s h i p s , which might have been quantified and rel a t e d to the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. The sheer magnitude of such an undertaking and doubtful a p p l i c a b i l i t y to the conditions i n Coastal B.C. prevented the author from taking t h i s approach. It was also not clear as to whether or not such an analysis could be confined to the boundaries of the Chilliwack Pro-v i n c i a l Forest. Logging impacts on other resources i n a l i m i t e d area may r e s u l t i n a mere r e d i s t r i b u t i o n of other resource users to pos-s i b l y u n d e r u t i l i z e d f a c i l i t i e s of comparable q u a l i t y elsewhere. On t h i s basis i t may be more v a l i d to study regional or P r o v i n c i a l impacts rather than be confined to a s p e c i f i c area. I f the objec-t i v e i s to maximize the economic rent derived from a l l resources, i t becomes very d i f f i c u l t when the forest resource i s managed within the a r b i t r a r y l i m i t s of a P.S.Y.U. boundary. There can be l i t t l e doubt however, that the Chilliwack River v a l l e y possesses many unique q u a l i t i e s and there would c e r t a i n l y be a considerable l o s s i n 'primary b e n e f i t s ' (Pearse, 1971) i f consumers were obliged to transfer t h e i r a c t i v i t i e s elsewhere due to serious logging impacts. In summary, i t appears that a quantitative analysis of in t a n g i b l e costs and bene-f i t s i s not j u s t i f i e d i n t h i s study p r i m a r i l y because of a lack of data. 4.22 Methodology of evaluation. On the basis of the above discussion, i t was decided to undertake a b r i e f q u a l i t a t i v e analysis of the more im-portant intangible aspects of the guidelines. It was not the author's in t e n t i o n to engage i n an intensive s c i e n t i f i c review, but to out-l i n e some improtant issues which have frequently been ignored by ad-vocates of the guidelines and which must be considered when costs and benefits are compared. The reader i s directed to a useful summary of the a v a i l a b l e l i t e r a t u r e relevant to B.C. concerning the influences of harvesting and post-harvest p r a c t i c e s upon the forest environment and resources ( B e l l e_t a l . , 1974). This reference provides a review of impacts and should be referred to for more d e t a i l e d background information. 4.23 Impact on Local Employment. The impact of both sets of guidelines on l o c a l employment i n the Chilliwack area i s l i k e l y to be minimal. Section 2.42 showed that between 1970 and 1972, between 183 and 273 persons could be d i r e c t l y connected to the l o c a l annual timber harvest. This represents a small proportion of the t o t a l labour force. As discussed i n Section 3.6, the guidelines may have the e f f e c t of draw-ing away l o c a l primary and secondary wood processing f a c i l i t i e s a l o t e a r l i e r than before. I n s t a b i l i t y may r e s u l t i n n o n - d i v e r s i f i e d communities which are heavily dependent on the l o c a l timber proces-sing industry for employment. In contrast, those l e s s dependent and more orientated to other sectors of the economy (e.g..service .and^ .. trade), may stand to benefit from increased employment i n recreation a c t i v i t i e s , and say f i s h e r i e s management. However, i t i s not c e r t a i n that the guidelines could bring about such a dramatic change i n r e -creation, f i s h i n g and hunting benefits to accomodate l o s t employ-ment even injjpopular areas l i k e the Chilliwack. The e f f e c t of r e -moving Environmental Protection Forest from allowable annual cut c a l c u l a t i o n s would reduce harvesting quotas, and could lead to an absolute decline i n the number of people employed i n the forest i n -dustry. It should be remembered that any timber shortages r e s u l t i n g from t h i s p o l i c y may i n fact be compensated for by improving u t i l i -zation standards which, i n turn, may imply increased employment. 4.24 Impacts on Recreation and Aesthetics. The 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines make p r o v i s -ions for an increasing recognition and enhancement of r e c r e a t i o n a l values. In several instances these appear to be confusing and i l l -defined, and c e r t a i n l y c o n f l i c t with some recreation a c t i v i t i e s . The more extensive basis of harvesting may mean that v i s u a l logging impacts are increased. This means that forest engineers must devote more time to the process of planning during the reconnaissance phase of road construction, i n order to reduce t h i s p o s s i b i l i t y . Adamovich (1971) provided some useful suggestions as to how v i s u a l impacts could be reduced. Aside from roads however, the 'giant checker-board image of a patch cutt i n g system also c o n s t i t u t e s i a s i g n i f i c a n t v i s u a l impact (although i t i s recognized that beauty i s i n the eye of the beholder). No matter how well roads are constructed i n mountainous t e r r a i n there i s s t i l l a great likelihoo'd'°f s l i d e s and washouts, although t h e i r frequency may be reduced. Assuming that i t i s too expensive to maintain a l l roads (main, branch and spur) and that only those for f i r e access w i l l be maintained between passes, the v i s u a l impacts of erosion are now d i s t r i b u t e d over a much greater developed area. The benefits of c u t t i n g on a more extensive basis mainly accrue to road-oriented a c t i v i t i e s , assuming of course, that f i r e access roads are constructed and maintained to s u f f i c i e n t l y high standards.for public v e h i c l e s . Wilderness enthusiasts who are concerned with the maintenance of a forestenvironment i n i t s p r i s t i n e state for as long as p o s s i b l e , are l i k e l y to s u f f e r a considerable d i s b e n e f i t although i t should be remembered that they represent a minority group. In general, because more forest lands are developed under the guide-l i n e s , r e c r e a t i o n a l use of these same lands w i l l increase. The v i -sual environment i s often regarded as an important component of the t o t a l s a t i s f a c t i o n derived from s p e c i a l i z e d a c t i v i t i e s such as hunt-ing and f i s h i n g , and i n the near perspective an alternate patch cut-t i n g system may be more pleasing that t o t a l c l e a r c u t t i n g . However, these a d d i t i o n a l benefits w i l l only be important when roads are s a t i s f a c t o r i l y constructed and r e g u l a r l y maintained for the benefit of road orientated r e c r e a t i o n i s t s . 4.25 Impact on W i l d l i f e . The provisions made i n the 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines for enhancing w i l d l i f e values include r e s t r i c t i n g c l e a r -cut s i z e and defer r i n g areas of timber d e l i n i a t e d as ' c r i t i c a l winter range' or Iwildlife migratory c o r r i d o r s ' . Adequate winter range appears to be very important for the maintenance of deer populations where snowfall i s the major regulatory factor governing habitat s e l e c -t i o n . Although i t i s d i f f i c u l t to define the dominant v a r i a b l e de-f i n i n g suitable winter range, i t appears that mature timber having a crown closure greater than 65 per cent with arboreal lichens ( A l e c t o r i a spp.) i s important (Jones, 1974; Eastman, 1974). Wild-l i f e migratory corridors are e s s e n t i a l for the u n r e s t r i c t e d passage of animals between summer and winter ranges. Provided that r i s k of windblow i s minimal i n these areas, such measures could c o n t r i -bute s i g n i f i c a n t l y to the maintenance of e x i s t i n g deer populations. A possible increase i n the number of deer may r e s u l t from the a l t e r -nate patch cut harvesting p o l i c y under the 1972 Coast Logging Guide-l i n e s . Where w i l d l i f e values are considered to be important, the guidelines suggest that the s i z e , shape and o r i e n t a t i o n of cleareut openings w i l l be adjusted to meet t h e i r requirements. These p r o v i -sions increase the forest edge e f f e c t , and make more of the cleareut areas a v a i l a b l e for browsing than before. However, where w i l d l i f e values are regarded as being s i g n i f i c a n t , i t i s not c l e a r that an alternate patch logging system i s the most s u i t a b l e . Ideal condi-tions f or deer populations include a diverse age class structure of mature, immature and cut-over blocks, with the l a t t e r being o r i e n t a -ted along contours and l o c a l topography. Immature stands adjacent to cleareut areas should be s u f f i c i e n t l y w ell developed to provide cover for these animals. The 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines however imply, i n p r a c t i c a l terms, square cutt i n g blocks and the removal of alternate patches a f t e r say 10 to 15 years, r e s u l t i n g i n two p r i n c i -p a l age classes. Furthermore, long and narrow clearcuts extending along contours at high elevation w i l l be very d i f f i c u l t to regener-ate n a t u r a l l y , because the f u l l p o t e n t i a l of v a l l e y winds for seed d i s p e r s a l i s l o s t . The objective of obtaining rapid regeneration by a r t i f i c i a l and natural means also c o n f l i c t s with improved forage production. The fundamental problem l i e s i n the attempt to manage w i l d l i f e values on an extensive basis with inadequate information and regardless of land-use p r i o r i t i e s . A more meaningful approach would be to define s p e c i f i c l o c a l i t i e s where w i l d l i f e values are important, and to manage these more e f f e c t i v e l y by intensive methods. To attempt to maintain an even d i s t r i b u t i o n of w i l d l i f e over developed areas regardless of t h e i r r e l a t i v e w i l d l i f e value i s not a correct i n t e r -p retation of multiple use management and can only lead to a suboptimal s o l u t i o n . 4.26 Impact on F i s h and Water Quality. Forest harvesting methods used i n the past have frequently resulted i n the removal of forest cover i n a manner that exposes streams to d i r e c t solar r a d i a t i o n , and causes increases i n stream temperature. Careless road and bridge construction p r a c t i c e s have resulted i n undue erosion and sedimentation. Undoubtedly t h i s has had an adverse e f f e c t on f i s h populations and water q u a l i t y . The alternate patch cutt i n g system advocated by the 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines i s by no means an i d e a l s o l u t i o n to these problems. T o t a l water y i e l d w i l l be decreased because more timber i s l e f t unharvested i n a given area which r e s u l t s i n increased t r a n s p i r a t i o n losses. By reducing cleareut s i z e , the melt period i s extended and so e a r l y peak flows may be reduced and low stream flows increased during dry summer months. Under normal cleareut harvesting procedures the primary source of sediment i s from timber access roads rather from logging disturbance. The alternate patch cutting p o l i c y does not proportionately reduce the number of roads required to harvest a given volume of timber. Archer et_ a l . (1972) stated that between 80 and 90 per cent of t o t a l stream sedimentation originated from natural erosion processes. On t h i s basis i t would appear that the advocated timber cutt i n g system would have very l i t t l e b e n e f i c i a l impact, and may even increase the number and d i s t r i b u t i o n of streams af f e c t e d by 103 sedimentation problems. Frederiksen (1970) found that patch-cut logging with forest roads, i n steep unstable headwater drainages, increased sedimentation com-pared with a control by more than 100 times over a 9-year period. In an adjacent clearcut watershed with no roads, and using a skyline as apposed to a conventional high-lead system, sedimentation increased three times that of the c o n t r o l . Frederiksen stated that l a n d s l i d e s associated with forest roads moved the l a r g e s t volume of s o i l , and that they occurred most often where roads intersected stream channels. Total c l e a r c u t t i n g with skyline yarding was found to have a much smal-l e r influence on the occurrence of l a n d s l i d e s . This study suggests that we can expect a minimal d e t e r i o r a t i o n i n water q u a l i t y a r i s i n g from sedimentation, where distrubance from road construction i s mini-mized by reduction of midslope road mileage through the use of s p e c i a l l y designed yarding systems. A patch c u t t i n g system and the use of con-ventional high-lead equipment i n Coastal B.C. i s not an i d e a l s o l u t i o n to the problem. More attention should be given to making skyline systems operationally f e a s i b l e , i n order to reduce the p r i n c i p l e cause of sedimentation, i . e . access roads on steep mid-slopes. The preservation of a s p e c i f i e d width of timbered green-strip adjacent to streams also o f f e r s a deceptively simple s o l u t i o n to the stream protection problem, and a number of setbacks are ap-parent. F i r s t l y , 'What i s a stream, that i s worth protecting?' There are countless r i v e r s , streams and freshets flowing through forested land i n Coastal B.C., and imposing a reserve on a l l streams would remove a major part of forests from timber production. Secondly, the a d d i t i o n a l edge-effect increases r i s k of blowdown, and t h i s p h y s i c a l disturbance i n addition to salvage operations may be more detrimental to f i s h habitat and water q u a l i t y than i f these trees were removed i n the f i r s t place. In conclusion i t may be said that the f u l l b e nefits of the guidelines for stream and water q u a l i t y protection cannot be r e a l -ized u n t i l there i s a more comprehensive inventory of streams i n terms of t h e i r habitat c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s , f i s h populations and r e l a -t i v e value. An alternate patch c u t t i n g system combined with f i l t e r s t r i p along streams i s a very expensive undertaking, with doubtful o v e r a l l b e n e f i t s . It i s e s s e n t i a l that t h e i r effectiveness be con-firmed before they are undertaken. 4.27 Impacts on Site P r o d u c t i v i t y . Concern has been expressed as to the renewabil-i t y of high elevation forests i n Coastal B.C., which are being man-aged on a sustained y i e l d basis (Kimmins, 1972; 1974a). To date, the t o t a l area harvested i n the Mountain Hemlock Zone has been re-l a t i v e l y small, and most of the so-called 'high elevation logging' has taken place i n the wet subzone of the Coastal Western Hemlock Zone, between the elevation of 2000 and 3500 feet . The Severe Site Guidelines r e f l e c t a desire to reduce undesirable logging impacts such as erosion which r e s u l t s i n a loss of t o p s o i l , a suspected loss i n s i t e p r o d u c t i v i t y , and sediment i n streamflow which may adversely a f f e c t f i s h populations and water q u a l i t y . A reduction i n future s i t e p r o d u c t i v i t y may appear to have immplications concerning a reduction i n the future l e v e l of sustained y i e l d , although increased volumes due to more intensive forest management and improved timber u t i l i -zation must also be considered. The o v e r a l l objective of management proposed by the Severe Site Guidelines was to 'protect' or 'sustain' p r o d u c t i v i t y l e v e l s f or d i f f i c u l t s i t e s . The c r i t e r i o n selected was to keep undesirable logging impacts to a s a t i s f a c t o r y l e v e l on those s i t e s where a s a t i s f a c t o r y regeneration plan had been prepared. Sites which did not s a t i s f y t h i s requirement were to be l e f t as Environmental Protection Forests. Both objective and c r i t e r i o n appear to be s a t i s f a c t o r y per se, but are l i a b l e to be misinterpre-tatedsin the following way. F i r s t l y the d i f f e r e n c e i n perspective between high and low elevation s i t e s has yet to be recognized, and c r i t e r i a should be established which show an appreciation for high elevation conditions. At the moment there i s a tendancy to take management c r i t e r i a s uitable f o r low elevation s i t e s and apply them to high elevation conditions. For example, fo r e s t e r s tend to get distraught when there i s r e l a t i v e l y l i t t l e natural regeneration a f t e r c l e a r c u t t i n g , or that a r t i f i c i a l regeneration has not shown s u f f i c i e n t promise a f t e r 4 or 5 years. It must be r e a l i z e d that i t may take appreciably longer for regeneration to reach breast height under natural conditions, for example up to 25 years or longer on 'low' or 'severe' s i t e s . Before drawing conclusions about possible losses i n s i t e p r o d u c t i v i t y , a r e a l i s t i c regeneration l a g factor should be incorporated into the Hanzlik formula. There i s also concern that future s i t e p r o d u c t i v i t y w i l l be reduced because a s i g n i f i c a n t pro-portion of the t o t a l a v a i l a b l e nutrients may be removed when the tree biomass i s harvested (Kimmins, 1974c). The i m p l i c i t assumption here, i s that exactly the same s i t e p r o d u c t i v i t y , r e f l e c t e d i n the size and d i s t r i b u t i o n of harvestable volumes, i s as important i n the future as i t i s at present. Such an argument i s debatable and takes no account of changes i n technology,relative prices or the costs of preventing i n i t i a l s i t e degradation i n r e l a t i o n to the b e n e f i t s . The present net worth of any losses i n the future i s very small, and might e a s i l y be compensated f o r by improved s i t e p r o d u c t i v i t y and better timber u t i l i z a t i o n on good s i t e s at low elevation. However, there i s no conclusive evidence to support or r e j e c t the theory that an i n i t i a l loss of nutrients can be adequately compensated f o r by nutrient accumulation over a 90 or 100 year r o t a t i o n . Although the Severe Site Guidelines advocate the d e l e t i o n of Environmental Pro-t e c t i o n Forest from the allowable cut c a l c u l a t i ons, the basic a l t e r -nate patch c u t t i n g p o l i c y s t i l l means that logging operations w i l l proceed to the more ' d i f f i c u l t ' s i t e s a l o t f a s t e r than before. A progressive c l e a r c u t t i n g p o l i c y would have meant that these s i t e s could be harvested farther i n the future. The r e l a t i v e p r i c e of wood may then be s u f f i c i e n t l y high not only to cover the higher har-vesting costs i n d i f f i c u l t t e r r a i n , but also be s u f f i c i e n t to accomo-date any environmental protection costs as are deemed necessary. Under the guidelines, the people of B.C. are forced to bear these a d d i t i o n a l costs a l o t sooner. 4.28 Impacts on Forest Protection. The Severe Site Guidelines o u t l i n e the necessity of reducing the use of slashburning on e c o l o g i c a l l y s e n s i t i v e s i t e s with steep slopes and shallow s o i l s commonly found i n high elevations i n Coastal B.C. For many years, slashburning has been considered as a very useful t o o l f or f i r e protection and s i l v i c u l t u r a l purposes. At low elevations, i t has been used with considerable success to maintain desirable s e r a i stages (e.g. Douglas-fir stands), to improve access, to favour desirable regeneration as well as i n reducing f i r e hazard (Kimmins, 1973). Kimmins stressed that external costs of slashburning should also be considered, such as damage to streams, damage to f i s h , l o s s of future p r o d u c t i v i t y due to l o s s of nutrients as w e l l as d i r e c t costs of escaped slashburns. These impacts appear to increase i n more ' d i f f i c u l t ' t e r r a i n , and the guidelines i m p l i c i t l y assume that these e x t e r n a l i t i e s outweigh the benefits of slashburn-ing to such an extent that i t i s no longer j u s t i f i e d . This assumes that a l t e r n a t i v e methods of abatement or prevention are a v a i l a b l e i n high r i s k e c o l o g i c a l l y s e n s i t i v e s i t e s - which i s frequently not the case. Smith and G i l b e r t (1974) analysed rates of spread and f i r e damage to f o r e s t cover types i n B.C. They showed that although only 0.016 and 0.039 per cent of 'HB' and 'HC' (Growth Type No. 7) stands are burned annually i n the Vancouver Forest D i s t r i c t , problems of higher rates of spread from discovery to i n i t i a l attack and control are accentuated i n the higher elevations. The highest rate of spread from discovery to i n i t i a l attack was found to be 8.4 acres per hour i n the 2000 to 2999 foot elevation c l a s s . The highest c o n t r o l i d i f f i -c u l t y has been experienced i n the 4000 to 4999 foot elevation c l a s s , where spread averaged 12.8 acres per hour from discovery to c o n t r o l S i g n i f i c a n t increases i n c o n t r o l d i f f i c u l t y were d i r e c t l y r e l a t e d to increasing slopes. The magnitude of these figures suggest that before slashburning i s stopped i n high elevation areas, adequate attention i s given to a l t e r n a t i v e methods of hazard abatement. The Forest Service i s obligated under the Forest Act to reduce f i r e hazard as much as p o s s i b l e , and adoption of the recommendations i n the Severe Site Guidelines without v i a b l e a l t e r n a t i v e s would be a c l e a r contravention of that Act. 5.0 DISTRIBUTION OF COSTS AND BENEFITS. In the previous sections an attempt was made to o u t l i n e the economic, s o c i a l and environmental implications of the logging guidelines. E f f e c t i v e d e c i s i o n making however, requires that the problem of equity i s also taken into account. This means, how the costs and benefits of logging guidelines are d i s t r i b u t e d throughout society. Before discussing any equity i m p l i c a t i o n , the costs and benefits must be c l a s s i f i e d on a common d e f i n i t i o n a l and conceptual ba s i s . The P o l i c y , Planning and Evaluation Directorate of Environ-ment Canada (1974) has recently developed such a c l a s s i f i c a t i o n sys-tem for environmental costs on the basis of work by Dales (1968) and E.P.A. (1972a; 1972b). An attempt w i l l be made to c l a s s i f y the cost of logging guidelines on the basis of t h e i r system. Environmental costs were considered to be of two general types: p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l costs and p o l l u t i o n costs. ( P o l l u t i o n was defined i n the broad sense of a i r , water and s o l i d wastes, but noise p o l l u t i o n and aesthe-t i c degradation were also included.) P o l l u t i o n control costs referred to the amount of money spent by public or private p a r t i e s to prevent some of the damaging or noxious e f f e c t s of wastes. This may be con-sidered to represent the t o t a l cost of preventing erosion, sedimenta-t i o n , aesthetic degradation and impacts of logging on f i s h , w i l d l i f e and recreation and so on. ' P o l l u t i o n costs'on the other hand are the money value of the damages caused by wastes a f t e r they are released into the environment. For example, they may represent the socio-economic cost to society of the e f f e c t s of progressive cleareut logging without guidelines. Included are 'damage avoidance costs' which prevent the harm that p o l l u t i o n causes (e.g. t r e a t i n g municipal water supplies to reduce high sediment content), and 'damage costs' r e s u l t -ing from p o l l u t i o n damage that i s not prevented (e.g. loss of spawn-ing beds, loss i n s i t e p r o d u c t i v i t y e t c . ) . These costs are i l l u s -trated i n Figure 11. For the purpose of t h i s discussion, only p o l l u t i o n control costs (or the f i n a n c i a l cost of logging guidelines) w i l l be examined i n more d e t a i l . Environment Canada (1974) stated that these may be subdivided into three main categories: catch-up costs, expenditures and annuals ized costs. 'Catch-up costs' r e f e r to the a d d i t i o n a l costs which are necessary to meet present environmental (guideline) standards. 'Expenditures' include' catch-up costs and the costs which are already being incurred. They are necessary to assess the short run economic impacts of c l o s i n g the gap between the required or desired l e v e l of environmental protection and the actual l e v e l . Once t h i s gap has been closed, then expenditures w i l l tend to approximate 'annualized costs' which are the actual accrued costs for a one year period. Previous c a l c u l a t i o n s of the cost per cunit increase due to guide-l i n e s have resulted i n an estimate of the annualized cost for the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest i . e . $1^423 MM. Because of the varying i n t e r p r e t a t i o n s of the guidelines, i t i s l i k e l y that there w i l l be catch-up costs of varying degrees throughout Coastal B.C. The d i f -ferences i n cost between Assumptions B, C and D when compared to Assumption E i n Tables XII to XV may be considered as estimates of catch-up costs i f Assumption E w i l l lead to the desired l e v e l of environmental protection. A l l three categories of cost were divided into 'public sector costs' and ' i n d u s t r i a l sector costs' with 'public' meaning government plus p r i v a t e i n d i v i d u a l s , and ' i n d u s t r i a l ' /.referr-ing to business firms (Figure 12). This cost subdivision i s extremely important when discussing the f i n a n c i a l impacts of logging guidelines, Figure 11 TYPES OF ENVIRONMENT COSTS ENVIRONMENTAL COSTS POLLUTION CONTROL COSTS ( p o l l u t i o n prevention) POLLUTION COSTS DAMAGE AVOIDANCE COSTS DAMAGE COSTS (welfare damages) Figure 12 POLLUTION CONTROL COST COMPONENTS POLLUTION CONTROL COSTS EXPENDITURES ANNUALIZED- COSTS PUBLIC INDUST. PUBLIC INDUST. CATCH-UP COSTS PUBLIC INDUST. and raised the problem of income d i s t r i b u t i o n and equity. The cur-rent stumpage appraisal procedure i s designed to e s t a b l i s h a net value of a t r a c t of timber to be harvested by subtracting from the estimated value of the products that can be removed, the costs that are necessary to r e a l i z e these values, including a return to the operator. In other words a stumpage p r i c e represents the r e s i d u a l value of standing timber. If Government p o l i c y requires that the operator^meets a d d i t i o n a l logging standards, then t h i s should be r e f l e c t e d i n a reduction i n the stumpage p r i c e he has to pay for the timber and not a reduction i n the allowed p r o f i t margin. Any reduc-t i o n i n Government revenue would ne c e s s a r i l y have to be compensated for by increased taxation of private i n d i v i d u a l s . It i s not c l e a r however that society as a whole should have to pay for increased environmental protection standards. A more equitable s o l u t i o n would be to increase the cost of hunting and f i s h i n g licences and perhaps charge entrance fees for r e c r e a t i o n i s t s . A f t e r a l l , i t i s these people which presumably wanted more environmental protection to pro-tect t h e i r own i n t e r e s t s i n the f i r s t place. The desires of s p e c i a l i n t e r e s t groups should not be r e f l e c t e d i n a burden upon society as a whole, or for that matter on logging operators who are improperly assessed for stumpage. Comments made by private industry (see Section 3.5) suggest that current stumpage appraisal c a l c u l a t i o n s have not taken f u l l account of the a d d i t i o n a l costs of logging guide-l i n e s , and every e f f o r t must be made to remedy t h i s s i t u a t i o n i n the future. One important cost which has so f a r been ommitted from the discussion, i s what the U.S. Council on Environmental Quality has termed 'transaction costs' (Environment Canada, 1974). Trans-action costs are the costs of research, development, planning, moni-t o r i n g , and enforcement needed to achieve environmental goals and standards. Part of the Canada Department of Environment's budget and that of the P r o v i n c i a l Government agencies connected with admini-s t e r i n g the guidelines would comprise the bulk of t h i s cost. These costs are l i k e l y to increase a great deal i n the future as a r e s u l t of the more extensive nature of logging under an alternate patch cutt i n g system. 6.0 FINAL DISCUSSION, CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS The previous analyses and discussion have attempted to o u t l i n e some of the more important issues associated with the 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines and the Severe S i t e Guidelines. In econo-mic terms i t was shown that the alternate patch c u t t i n g philosophy common to both sets of guidelines was a major factor contributing to increased logging costs and an o v e r a l l decline of up to 60% of the p o t e n t i a l economic rent per developed acre. The s i z e of the increase i n logging costs per cunit was found to be very s e n s i t i v e to i n t e r e s t rates and the length of the leave period between consecutive harvest-ing passes. It was estimated that the a p p l i c a t i o n of logging guide-l i n e s to harvesting operations i n the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest would r e s u l t i n an extra annual cost of at least $1,423 MM over the next 24 years. Furthermore i t appeared that i f a l l of the guideline recommendations were f u l l y implemented, the si z e of the extra cost would mean that Coastal B.C. forests would no longer represent a revenue producing resource. Although the nature and s i g n i f i c a n c e of future timber d e f e r r a l s and u t i l i z a t i o n improvements i s uncertain, the alternate patch cut-t i n g system with long leave periods suggested that l o c a l timber sup-ply shortages may develop i n the near future. This would have s i g -n i f i c a n t impact on small u n d i v e r s i f i e d communities highly dependant on the l o c a l timber processing i n d u s t r i e s for employment. In t h i s regard the guidelines may contradict one of the sustained y i e l d ob-j e c t i v e s of community s t a b i l i t y . The logging industry was found to be fourth i n importance i n the Chilliwack area, and no major im-pacts on future employment may be expected i n t h i s case. Although the guidelines were intended to reduce environmental impact, the previous discussions would seem to i n d i c a t e that prob-lems of erosion, sedimentation and aesthetic impact may even be in^-. creased o v e r a l l , because of the more extensive basis for development. Windblow problems are also l i k e l y to be more s i g n i f i c a n t . The si z e of increased r e c r e a t i o n a l benefits r e a l i z e d from the guideline recommendations was considered to be very dependent on whether or not access roads are maintained to a s u f f i c i e n t l y high standard f o r public access. In general, i t may be said that some form of logging guidelines was long overdue, and that these documents represent a good ' f i r s t approximation' so l u t i o n to the problem. However, i t i s imperative that they be constantly reviewed and updated i n the l i g h t of chang-ing socio-economic circumstances and r e s u l t s of research. Recent concerns expressed by Government agencies, private industry and uni-v e r s i t y suggest some guideline r e v i s i o n s w i l l be necessary i n the near future. Although economic analyses have shown the serious f i -nancial implications of the guidelines i n t h e i r present form, t h i s au should not be interpreted as meaning that more environmental impacts are necessary to keep the logging industry i n business. On the con-tr a r y , i t may merely mean that the guidelines as presently i n t e r -preted are an i n e f f i c i e n t means with which to obtain multiple use objectives. It i s the opinion of the author that more attention has to be devoted to the problem of land-use planning and the e s t a b l i s h -ment of land-use p r i o r i t i e s . In t h i s way funds can be more s p e c i f i -c a l l y directed to achieving c l e a r l y stated objectives i n an e f f i c i e n t manner. The present system of protecting a l l resource values on an extensive basis w i l l i n e v i t a b l y lead to unresolvable c o n f l i c t s . Although the 1972 Coast Logging Guidelines were o r i g i n a l l y i n -tended to be f l e x i b l e , the most important aspect - the alternate patch cutting system - has been applied to a l l development areas. I f continued, t h i s basic p o l i c y may have profound economic, s o c i a l and environmental consequences. Serious consideration should be given to the p o s s i b i l i t y of more c a r e f u l progressive cleareut l o g -ging. The money saved i n i n t e r e s t charges from road development under the e x i s t i n g guidelines would adequately pay for measures such as streambank r e f o r e s t a t i o n with hardwoods, c a r e f u l road con-s t r u c t i o n and maintenance, and rapid r e f o r e s t a t i o n of cleareut areas. On the other hand, more sophisticated s i l v i c u l t u r a l systems could be applied to areas where say w i l d l i f e and f i s h e r i e s values are of p a r t i c u l a r importance. In terms of high elevation f o r e s t s , i t may be useful to d e l i n -i a t e temporary Environmental Protection Forest boundaries which r e -present the l i m i t of economically accessible timber. Normal logging costs together with the estimated cost of environmental p r o t e c t i o n measures required would have to be included i n the a n a l y s i s . This boundary would represent the l e v e l to which timber can be s a t i s f a c -t o r i l y harvested from both an economic and e c o l o g i c a l point of view at a given point i n time. This implies that the l i m i t s may change depending on:'future p r i c e increases, technological improvements and environmental concern. It would therefore be inc o r r e c t to delete the t o t a l area of these forests from allowable annual cut c a l c u l a -t i o n s . Some reasonable allowance should be made for areas which are l i k e l y to be harvested i n the future. This p o l i c y would not require the vast amounts of extra roads required under the usual logging guidelines, and would c e r t a i n l y increase the returns to the Provin-c i a l Treasury because economically sub-marginal stands would no;longer 117 be harvested. In terms of future research needs, the efficiency by which guide-lines implement sustained yield objectives and the extent to which the aforementioned financial analyses apply outside of the Chilliwack Provin-c i a l Forest should be determined. In addition there i s a need to relate-the results for Paleface and Depot Creeks to the Dewdney P.S.Y.U. as a whole, using appropriate mathematical modelling approaches. Two major fields may also be worth investigating. F i r s t l y , the possibility of introducing logging systems which have much longer yarding distances should be studied because the most significant environmental impacts from harvesting in mountainous terrain are related to the access roads. The \"Grabinski\" conversion of conventional high lead systems has been used very successfully in Washington State by the Department of Natural Resources and yarding distances of up to 1500 feet are common. This compares with an average of 600 feet for operations on the Coast of B.C. The number of roads required could be considerably reduced using this system, and the cost saving would easily compensate any minor reductions in volume pro-duction. Secondly, serious attention should be given to the use of more intensive forest management techniques on good sites at low elevations. Yields per acre can be significantly improved by using higher yielding spec-ies, more effective i n i t i a l spacing, thinning and f e r t i l i z a t i o n . The improved volume production might provide an alternative to harvesting of high elevation forests u n t i l more can be learned about how^they can be managed by economically and ecologically sound methods. LITERATURE CITED Adamovich, L. 1971. Geometric design standards of forest roads: an aesthetic view. 8th. Canadian Roadside Development Confer-ence:, sJune , 1971. Centre for Continuing Education, Univ. of B.C. 13p. Anderson, A.B. 1974. L e t t e r to E.L. Young, R.P.F. Chief Forester B.C. Forest Service, Sept. 24, 1974. In Memorandum to a l l Members, Assoc. of B.C. Prof. Foresters., Nov.1,1974. 7p. Anon, 1973. History of the Chilliwack V a l l e y . In Integrated resource planning for the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest, E.P. 733. ( F i r s t draft.) B.C. Forest Service Research D i v i s i o n . Archer, S.H., Dowdle, B., Gessel, S.P., Scott, R.H., Waggener, T.R., and D.D. Wooldridge, 1972. Central Washington Cascades Study: an economic-ecological evaluation. Business Economics Advis-ory and Research Inc. Seattle, Wash. 85p. B.C.F.S. 1965a. C i r c u l a r VR65-10: protection p l a n n i n g - f i r e breaks. To a l l Rangers, Vancouver Forest D i s t r i c t from I.T. Cameron, D i s t r i c t Forester. A p r i l 8, 1965., mimeo, 5p. 1965b. Firebreak guidelines. M P.S.Y.U. Planning f i r e breaks, r e f . nos. 4.312148, 4.3121481 & 2. G.D. Haddon, Pro-t e c t i o n o f f i c e r , B.C. Forest Service, mimeo, 2p. 1968. Report on the 1962-1963 unit survey of the Dewdney P.S.Y.U. B.C. Forest Service Inventory D i v i s i o n . 20p. 1972. Planning guidelines for coast logging operations. Le t t e r to a l l licencees on Coast region of B.C., V i c t o r i a , B.C., mimeo, 5p. 1973a. Interim guides - logging on severe s i t e s - Vancouver Forest D i s t r i c t . (unpublished). 5p. _—; --—1973b. Reference made to Depot Creek Cutting Permit review. In l e t t e r to Chief Forester, V i c t o r i a , from A.C. Schutz, Forester i / c Management, March 15, 1973. T.S.H.L. A00050, C P . #16. B.C. Forest Service Vancouver D i s t r i c t . 1973c. Forestalk. B.C. Forest Service Information D i v i s i o n . 1(2)., p . l . B.C.F.S. 1974. Integrated use plan for the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest: Part I Basic Resources. E.P. 714. B.C. Forest Service Research D i v i s i o n , V i c t o r i a , B.C. lOOp. B.C.F. S./CF. S. 1975 High elevation r e f o r e s t a t i o n problems i n the Vancouver Forest D i s t r i c t . Interim research r e s u l t s No.l. B.C. Forest Service/Canadian Forestry Service, J o i n t Report, January 1975. 8p. 119 Bell, M.A.M., Beckett, J.M. and W.F. Hubbard, 1974. Impact of har-vesting on forest environments and resources: A review of the literature and evaluation of research needs. Environment Canada, • Canadian Forestry Service, Pacific Forest Research Centre, Vic-toria, B.C. Contract No. 05P3-0410. 141p. Benskin, H.J. 1974a. Progress report no. 1, letter to E.A.F. Wetton, Senior Economist., B.C.- Forest Service Special Studies Division, Victoria, B.C. 5p. 1974b. Analysis of regeneration data for Chilliwack Provincial Forest. Directed Study, Forestry 430. Univ. of B.C., Fac. For. Briere, D. 1974. The biogeoclimatic zones and subzones of the C h i l l i -wack Provincial Forest. In Integrated use plan for the Chilliwack Provincial Forest: Part I Basic Resources. E.P. 714. B.C. Forest Service Research Division, Victoria, B.C. Chapman, J.D. 1952. The climate of British Columbia. Proc. 5th. B.C. Nat. Res. Cong. pp. 1-47. Cheng, J. 1974. Water resources of the Chilliwack Provincial Forest. In Integrated use plan for the Chilliwack Provincial Forest: Part I Basic Resources. E.P. 714. B.C. Forest Service Research Division, Victoria, B.C. pp. 36-39. CO.F.I. 1973a. Brief to I.T. Cameron, Chief Forester, B.C. Forest Service. March 14, 1973. 1973b. Background assumptions and calculations to March 14 Brief. (notes). Coomber, N.H. and A.K. Biswas. 1973.' Evaluation of environmental intangibles. General Press., N.Y., 77 p. Dales, J.H. 1968. Pollution, property and prices. Univ. of Toronto Press., l l l p . Devitt, B. 1974. Task force report on high elevation reforestation research needs in the Vancouver Forest Di s t r i c t . Memorandum to members of the Reforestation Board of the Tree Farm Forestry Committee. Feb. 22, 1974. mimeo, 3p. Dowdle, B. 1975. Letter to J.H. Wikstrom, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, Ogden, Utah. Jan. 27, 1975. Eastman, D. 1974. Deer (region 1). I_n Species protection guidelines. B.C. Fish and Wildlife Branch. Int. rept. (unpublished) lOp. Environment Canada, 1974. The concepts of environmental costs. Planning and Finance Service., Policy, Planning and Evaluation Directorate. Discussion Paper Series No. 1., June, 1974. 20p. E.P.A. 1972a. The economic impact of p o l l u t i o n c o n t r o l : A summary of recent studies. Prepared for the council on Environmental Quality., Dept. of Commerce and Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C., March 1972. 332p. 1972b. Environmental Protection Agency: a progress report, Dec. 1970 to June 1972. U.S. Environmental Protection Agency., Nov. 1972. 117p. Farley, A.L. 1966. Climate data maps for B r i t i s h Columbia agro-climatology committee. A.R.D.A., V i c t o r i a , B.C. Forbes, R. 1974. W i l d l i f e values of the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. In Integrated use plan for the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest: Part I Basic Resources. E.P. 714. B.C. Forest Service Research D i v i s i o n , V i c t o r i a , B.C. pp.67-69. Frederiksen, R.L. 1970. Erosion and sedimentation following road construction and timber harvest on unstable s o i l s i n three small western Oregon watersheds. U.S.D.A. Forest Serv. Res. Pap. PNW-104, 15 pp., i l l u s . Haley, D. 1971. Influence of p u b l i c p o l i c i e s on the development of the f o r e s t sector i n B r i t i s h Columbia. Paper prepared f o r Annual Meeting of the American A g r i c u l t u r a l Economics Associa-t i o n , Carbondale, I l l i n o i s : Aug. 15-18, 1971. Mimeo, lOp. Hetherington, J.C. 1965. The dissemination, germination and sur-v i v a l of seed on the west coast of Vancouver Island from \\;?JLs Western hemlock and associated species. B.C. Forest Service Res. Note. 39. 22p., i l l u s . Johnston, D.R., Grayson, A.J., and R.T. Bradley. 1967. Forest Plan-ning. Faber and Faber Ltd., London, 541 p. Jones, G. 1974. Winter ecology of deer. Notes provided f o r a Forestry 395 l e c t u r e , Oct. 11, 1974. Univ. of B.C., Fac. For. Kimmins, J.P. 1972. The renewability of natural resources: implica-tions for forest management. J. Forest. 71: 290-292. 1973. The ecology of f o r e s t r y , Part I. In Extention course notes, Univ. of B.C., Fac. For. Forest Ecology. 1974a. Sustained y i e l d , timber mining, and the concept of e c o l o g i c a l r o t a t i o n ; a B r i t i s h Columbian view. Forest Chron. 50(1): 1974b. How to provide f o r environmental protection by re-gulation or use of the p r i c e system. Paper presented at the B.C. Timber P o l i c y Conference: A p r i l 4-6, 1974. Vancouver, B.C. 27p. 1974c. Nutrient removal associated with whole-tree logging on two d i f f e r e n t s i t e s i n the Prince George Forest D i s t r i c t : a f i n a l report submitted to the B.C.F.S. Pr o d u c t i v i t y Committee, Oct. 1974. Krajina, V.J. 1969. Ecology of forest trees i n B r i t i s h Columbia. Eco l . of Western N. Am. 2: 1-146. Leskiw, 1974. Landforms and s o i l s of the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. In Integrated use plan f o r the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest: Part I Basic Resources. E.P. 714. B.C. Forest Service Research D i v i s i o n , V i c t o r i a , B.C. pp.10-17. Lewis, H.V. 1974. Objectives of public forest p o l i c y i n B r i t i s h Columbia: some economic observations. Paper presented at the B.C. Timber P o l i c y Conference: A p r i l 4-6, 1974. Vancouver, B.C. Lyon, J . 1974. NDP taken to task on f o r e s t r y . Business e d i t o r i a l . , Vancouver Sun: F r i . , Oct. 11, 1974. p.28. McLean, D. 1974. Economic impact of the Chilliwack Forest allowable cut. In Integrated use plan for the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest: Part I Basic Resources. E.P. 714. B.C. Forest Service Research D i v i s i o n , V i c t o r i a , B.C. pp. 76-80. McMurray, R. 1974a. Hoping for peace with NDP gov't. Business e d i t o r i a l . , Vancouver Province: Wed., Oct. 30, 1974. p.14. 1974b. Gov't f o r e s t r y program eyed to help j o b l e s s . Business e d i t o r i a l . , Vancouver Province: Sat., Nov. 2, 1974. p.21. 1975a. Paralysed by guidelines. Business e d i t o r i a l . , Vancouver Province: Thurs., Jan. 16, 1975. p.18. 1975b. Forestry boss sees end to pot of gold. Business e d i t o r i a l , Vancouver Province: Wed., Feb. 19, 1975. p.17. Meyer, P. 1974. Personal communication. In E f f e c t s of forest harvesting on the p r o d u c t i v i t y of salmon and trout habitats i n the Chilliwack basin study area. Vroom, P.R. and W.E. Dunford., Directed Study, Planning 521. Univ. of B.C. Monger, J. 1974. Bedrock geology of the Chilliwack Forest. In Integrated use plan f o r the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest: Part I Basic Resources. E.P. 714. B.C. Forest Service Research D i v i s i o n , V i c t o r i a , B.C. pp.2-6. Okonski, J . 1974. Paleface Creek: a case study from a f o r e s t en-gineering point of view. Directed Study, Planning 521. Univ. of B.C. 65p. Ottens, J . 1975. Environmental costs i n logging road design and construction. Environment Canada, Canadian Forestry Service, P a c i f i c Forest Research Centre, V i c t o r i a , B.C., Report BC-X-108, 26p. 122 Parker, J.T. 1975. F a l l i n g and bucking. In Minutes of the general meeting: Jan. 14, 1975. Canadian I n s t i t u t e of Forestry, Vancouver Section. 5p. Pearse, P.H. 1971. The value of sport f i s h i n g i n B r i t i s h Columbia: a report prepared for the B.C. F i s h and W i l d l i f e Branch by Pearse Bowden Economic Consultants. 1970. 65p. Pearse, P.H., Backman, A.V., and E.L. Young, 1974. Crown charges for e a r l y timber r i g h t s . B.C. Forest Service, V i c t o r i a , 67p. Reuter, F. 1973. High elevation r e f o r e s t a t i o n problems i n the Vancouver Forest D i s t r i c t : a problem analysis. B.C. Forest Service Research D i v i s i o n , V i c t o r i a , B.C. (unpublished). 46p. , i l l u s . Reed, F.L.C. and Assoc. 1973. The B r i t i s h Columbia Forest Industry. Its d i r e c t and i n d i r e c t impact on the economy. B.C. Forest Service., V i c t o r i a , 89p. S i r k i n , G. 1968. The v i s i b l e hand: the fundamentals of economic planning. McGraw-Hill Book Co., N.Y., 192p. Smith, J.H.G. 1970. I n t e n s i f i c a t i o n of forest land management i n the Prince George Forest D i s t r i c t . Paper presented at meeting of the Cariboo Section of the Canadian I n s t i t u t e of Forestry: March 6, 1970. Smith, J.H.G. and W.E. G i l b e r t , 1974. Rates of spread and f i r e damage to timber cover types i n B r i t i s h Columbia. Paper presented for a conference on F i r e Ecology of the P a c i f i c Northwest, Portland, Ore., Oct. 16-17, 1974. Swiatkiewicz, V. 1974. Fishery resources of the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. In Integrated resource use plan for the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest: Part I Basic resources. E.P. 714. B.C. Forest Service Research D i v i s i o n . V i c t o r i a , B.C. pp.61-64. • Taylor-5-L. 1975a; 'Care/for envi-ronment lauded. Business, e d i t o r i a l . , Vancouver Province, . F r i . , -Jane l57r,7vl975..; p.. 17... 22s 1975b. Logging boss fears strangulation by V i c t o r i a : Business e d i t o r i a l .Vancouver P.rovirice: Wed., Jan. -22 , •. 1.9.75 p .17 • . ... ^ .- , ' \\ ' ' ' . ' . ,7;, . , . : / . . ZS ;y ' ' Turner, M. 1974. Recreational resources of the Chilliwack Forest. In Integrated use plan for the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest: Part I Basic resources. E.P. 714. B.C. Forest Service Research D i v i s i o n , V i c t o r i a , B.C. pp. 56-58. Tysdal, R. 1973. M u l t i p l e use i n North America: i t s meaning and development: Unpublished major essay for M.Sc. Univ. of B.C., Fac. For. lOOp. Utzig, G. and L. Herring, 1974. Factors s i g n i f i c a n t to high elevation 123 forest management: a report emphasizing s o i l s t a b i l i t y and stand regeneration. E.P. 735. B.C. Forest Service Research D i v i s i o n . V i c t o r i a , B.C. 69p., i l l u s . Vickerson, J.E., F e l l e r , M.M. and K.G. Farquarson, 1973. A proposal for park development i n the Chilliwack River Basin. Unpublished report. Sierra Club. Vancouver, B.C. 34p. Vroom, P.R. and W.E. Dunford, 1974. E f f e c t s of fo r e s t harvesting on the p r o d u c t i v i t y of salmon and trout habitats i n the Chilliwack basin study area. Directed Study, Planning 521. Univ. of B.C. , Dept. Planning. 94p. Wimsby, J. 1974. Mineral p o t e n t i a l of the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest. In Integrated use plan for the Chilliwack P r o v i n c i a l Forest: Part I Basic resources. E.P. 714. B.C. Forest Service. V i c t o r i a , B.C. pp.72-73. Young, E.L. 1974. L e t t e r to A.B. Anderson, President, Assoc. B.C. Professional Foresters: Oct. 23, 1974. In Memorandum to a l l Members, Assoc. B.C. Professional Foresters., Nov. 1, 1974. 1 2 4 APPENDIX I Copies of: Planning guidelines for Coast logging operations. Interim guides - logging on severe s i t e s - Vancouver Forest D i s t r i c t . FOREST SERVICE V I C T O R I A . B R I T I S H C O L U M B I A September'--29, 1972. PLANNING GUIDELINES FOR COAST LOGGING OPERATIONS A, The general practice shall be to clear-cut to the close utilization standards, with the objective of creating even-aged stands on the sites harvested. Logging must be conducted in such a manner that fira hazard is reduced to an acceptable standard and the cutting area la satisfactorily prepared for the future crop. In addition to, cutting a l l species to a minimum diameter limit, falling of a l l trees ten feet and over in height, regardless of merchantability will normally be required. Of great concern is the matter of protection of water quality and the maintenance of a managed environment suitable for the preserva-tion, protection, and regulation of other users of the forest habitat. Ma&aurea must be taken to ensure that a l l protective forest cover i s not removed, but rather that sufficient trees or blocks of forest are left to meet the necessary requirements of the other users. Protective cover requirements will vary with wildlife species present and their habitat requirements, size of stream, type of bed, water-flow continuity, the present or potential value for fish and game, human consumption, and racreational use. Wildlife and fish habitats of significance must re-ceive special consideration. Normally, many different types of forest cover will be present over the greater percentage of any managed unit and thay must be recognized and deliberately incorporated into area plana. These include: (1) inaccessible trees which occur in steep rocky canyons and on steep bluffs; (2) tree growth occurring on unstable, erodible cutbanks-(3) leaning trees along water-courses and shorelines which cannot be removed without causing environmental damage; (A) fast-growing deciduous trees of suitable species, not subject to extra-site encroachment, planted along water-courses or shorelines either prior to logging or after slash burning; (5) primary timbered .leave strips for fire control and their replacements; 1 2 6 /2 (6) leave blocks which w i l l not be cue u n t i l adjacent blocks are reforested to the stage required to assure compatible integrated use; (7) f i l t e r s t r i p s between roads or openings and waterfront or stream banks, held temporarily'pending s t a b i l i z a t i o n of run-off within the developed area; (8) pre-established second-growth timber or s a t i s f a c t o r i l y renewed immature stands r e s u l t i n g from e a r l i e r c u t t i n g or from other causes such as f i r e s , and not forming part of present c u t t i n g areas. (9) forest cover i n parks or other ownerships not being cut over; (10) needed w i l d l i f e c o r r i d o r patches held pending r e - p o s i t i o n -ing i n t o renewed forests or a l t e r n a t i v e areas; (11) forest r e c r e a t i o n a l use development areas; (12) f o r e s t u t i l i z e d as ''surround\" for unique f e a t u r e s ; (13) f o r e s t temporarily held i n pocket or s t r i p f o r r e c r e a t i o n areas, pending development and eventual r e - p o s i t i o n i n g i n t o a l t e r n a t i v e areas; (14) forest temporarily held on alternate \"50 percent\" cut program for watershed p r o t e c t i o n , held pending develop-ment of new forest on adjacent cut-over areas to the stage required to as-surc compatible Integra.ed use. (15) stream-face or shoreline blocks subject to s p e c i a l t r e a t -ment, stand improvement, or s p e c i a l c u t t i n g system. Forest land within a watershed w i l l be harvested under the m u l t i p l e use concept. Consistent with the incorporation of f o r e s t r e c r e a t i o n , game ha b i t a t , and watershed management in t o c u t t i n g plans designed to accommodate these and other resource uses, mature timber, extending to stream borders, may be harvested using such s p e c i a l measures as deemed necessary. These measures w i l l prevent stand decadence and ensure the renewal of forest growth along water courses w i t h i n a time sequence l o g i c a l to a managed forest environment. Only i n t h i s way can q u a l i t y stream maintenance, as w e l l as the needs of people, be provided for simultaneously. Examples of using s p e c i a l measures where necessary may include: approved forms of s e l e c t i v e c u t t i n g , /3 1 2 7 3/ cutting narrow strips or smaller patent's, meihani.al i't other powered methods of controlling the direction of tree f a l l , telling of trees from opposite banks and l i f t i n g clear to avoid environmental damage, etc. Such measures w i l l often involve precise t i n u n j of crit i c a L operations, such as road and bridge dc-ve]opm M H i L R H A I M . c 3 'i~n 7 ? 23: 5*-: 11 P * O .0-1 : O O O i . TO 0 2 C £ A L ™ , G N A C , G S A C , ! \" N A C , P N A C , P S A C , T VOL , F V O L , C V O L , H V C L , B V O L , T Y V O L , M A ' \" V h , B R A N C H , S P U R , M T C E , R E O P E N , OR. , DC , I f-. T ( 3 ) , H T C O S T C ) , K N C G S T P ) , 1 ^ A C , L ' • • I W T ? G = F . - C P . F 5 K , C P E P A T , C A , Y R , N ^ , S c B , C C P A T , C C N 0 , A , B , C , D , e , N O P . ~ H ( 4 ) ' C 0 0 3 •> , i • :U 1 H114 ) , V , CUP M , S , L L I f-'., R U T ATN.( 2 , 2 , 5 ) , P.R I G i , B R. I G2 , b G C I )L V , S M C u T V ~ • P I M - N S I C N Y I F L D ( 2 , 3 , 5 ) , F P ( 3 ) , C P ( 3 ) , H P ( 3 ) , B P ( 3 ) , C Y P ( 3 ) , F ( 3 ) , C ( ^ ) , H ( rf':!*.*!!'^*!*^!^ » C T « 3 » « C C < ? l _ , C Z I 3 ) . C F O . , , c r , C 3 ) , C O ( ? ) , B R c 5 s T ( 3 0 0 } ' + i ( • \"i ^ * c ; i ^ - f j f ' ; : - C 0 S T 1 3 ' * IGICC31, W- IG 2 C ( 3 ) , S M C U L C ( 3 ) , B G C U L C ( 3 J ' T P T E T ! ) ' - S M 3 I , P L A N T ( 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 3 ) , S U M N C R < 3 , 2 , 5 , 2 , 3 ) , T S C N D R ( 2 , 2 , 5 , 2 , ^ ) C 0 M M 0 N / B 1 / P . Q T A T N , Y I E - X P X 0 6 0 ) 0 7 C C ' M M C i v / P 2 / N 0 K T H , S O U T H ~ ~ • — • — : — C C M M C N / B 3 / F P , C P , H P , B P , C Y P , F , H C C M M 0 ' : / B 4 / C Y , C T , C C , C Z , C F , C G , C O , . f - ' N C C S T , B P . C O S T , S P C O S T , R ! = C O < ; T . B R T G 1 C . • •-0 C 0 3 r ' f ' ! ) C - H K I b2(. , b M C U L C , E G C U L C , P L C O S T , I N T , N T C O S T : ~ ~ — — C C M « r > ! / B 5 / F L A \\ ' T TITLFS 0 0 1 0 D I i V ; - . N S I C M C R K ( 5 , 2 ) • O P R ( 1 4 , 5 ) , C A S ( 9 ,2 ) ~ : • r n i C P K / ' O = P O ' , ' T c t ' . ' r E K - , : * ' • , • P A L E - , • F A C E - , • C F E - , • EK ' , • • > / , ' * C P F < / ' T O T A ' , < L V O ' , ' L U M P . , . P r M ' , 1 0 VA L ' , ' O P E S • R A T I S • f l N S A * • ' . ' A -u- , ' P L - R . i ' , ' T l O N S l J * ' S ' 1 9 / 2 ' , ' G U I S ' DL I N ' , ' E OP ' i ' T R X T ~ ~ ' ! C i N ' , P = < S ' S E V E S ' R E S S ' I T E ' , ' G U I D ' , ' E L I N • , • F C P • , ' F R A T • , ' I 0 : i • * ' • > ' ' ' U . ' t ' P . F . ' , ' P E P S ' M A N E S ' N T ) . ' , ' ' , ' S E V E ' , ' K = S ' . ' I T F - . < G U * J U S ' 1.1 N ' , ' fc L P ' . ' F R A T S ' I O N ' , ' th . • , ' P . F . \" , • S EM ' , ' I - P E S ' F M A N ' , ' : * ' E N T ) ' / . C A S / ' A C T U - , VAL P ' . ' L U S ' , ' A V E P. < , i A G F • , < C U T ' , ' P F P ' , ' V F A ' * , ' P.' , ' AV ER ' , ' A G E ' , ' C U T « , ' P E R S ' Y F A R S * * ' • / 0 0 1 2 4 0 0 I 1 t- I t) , 4 U VI . — ——— _ — F O R M A T ( ' 1 S 3 7 X , i * * * * * * * * * * * » * * * 4 * * * * ) V l i t J > * < ! * A i t l k < . t ( < t * * « * • ) ^ 1 J > 0 1 4 . GO 1 5 ) 1 4 0 1 / . r\"1 \"> ' V. P I T F- ( 6 , 4 0 1 ) F O F V / S T ( 3 8 X , ' * S 6 X , ' F I N A N C I A L I M P A C T O F L O G G I N G G U I O F L I N = S S 7X. • * ' ) ViP I T F (.fi , 4 0 2 ) 0 0 1 7 oo: a 4 1 . 2 4 0 3 F O R V A : ( . - B X , ' * S 2 1 X , • I N T H E S 2 4 X , ' * ' ) ' — — V ' C I T F ( f . , 4 0 3 ) r O P M A T ( : - g x , ' « = ' , 1 I X , ' C H I L L I W A C K . F F C V I N C I A L F O RF S T ' . 1 ? X . • * ' » . , 4-. T — -~ . . . - . . >.. i .' 0020 r> ^?} 4 0 4 I\"• P 1 ! F ( ( , 4 J ^ ] ; F O R M A T ( 3 S X , ' * * , 1 X , ' ( I N T E R M S O F C I S C C U M T E D P R E S E N T V A L U F O F E X I S T I ' G S I X , •-•) - i 00 2? 0023 t\"* ? i*. 4 0 5 i-< ••; 1 ! f 1 1 , 4 L' b ) : — , F 0 R M . ' : T ( 3 R X , ' * ' , 1 4 X , ' A N D S L C C F S S O R C R O P ) ' , 1 6 X , ' * ' ) l-. R I T F ( (: , 4 0 6 ) U u' ri H 0*25 4 0 6 / . r*1 \"7 F ( ) F ( 3 8X, • * * * ¥ « * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * < i t » » » » < l » * < i < i i > i ) ! j i » j i > . ^ < , < . w < i m x , . . , • • — : : * / / ) V.' R T T F ( 6 , 4 0 7 ) . -* 'J c o 0 0 2 7 0 J 2 3 4 0 8 F n R A1 ( 1 8 X , ' K E Y : ' / ) — — WF. m ( t , 4 0 8 ) F O R M A T ( 1 2 X , ' A l = B . C . F . S A P P P A I S F D C O S T S A N D M A R K ' - T P R I C E S F O R A P R : • • 0 0 2 9 0 0 3 0 4 1 0 * T 1 1 G li. 1 ) — Vi C I T F. ( 6 , 4 1 0 ) f C R ' V T ( l ? x , ' A 2 = C . F . I E S T I M A T E D C O S T S A M D M A R K E T P R I C E S F O R A P R T I 0 0 3 1 0 0 3 2 4 0 9 * 1 9 7 4 ' ) ~ ~ ~ — i — — W R I T F ( 6 , 4 C 9 ) F O R ' - ' - A T ( 12X , ' A 3 = C A T T E R M O L F T I M B E R L T D . C O S T S A N D M A R K E T P R T C F S F O 0 0 3 3 0 0 3 4 \\ \\ i \\ 'A c; 4 1 1 *'<' A - ' ^ I L 1 9 7 4 ' ) • — : _ V I T S ( 6 , 4 1 1 ) F ' . I P M A T ( ' 0 ' , 1 1 X , < B l = N O S L A S H B U R N I N G ' ) i—• .''' c o 0 0 3 6 0 0 3 7 4 1 2 w P. I ! ~ ( t, 4 1 2 ) - — — — F Q F M A T ( 1 2 X , ' B 2 = S L A S H B U R N I N G ' ) W R I T E ( 6 , 4 1 3 ) J 2. O O i i I -c/\"» O o Ci I o < 2 : <\\1 . > -r - 1 •-\" x • •0* C\\i r-l O o CO - 0 * CO - CO co o r --o — «c — 1 t'_; *-i i~ t- S' H-Icy 6 a. CO 0-• r , t o O O O C O • u . U J a Ll. • —1 >• + 1 * — — •» < ^~ ~ rvl ~ - > O o * — o > o > > o . rj 1 a 1 cr, ^ o c O II c> a- r: t~ r- t> a-1— 1— •— J O O O O O II - T C_' ?: 1-1 oCM {<\"l CO C I CO o o o o o o 1 3 7 CM C • CO a — r--:ij < • — CJ > 1 1--— 11 r-l O >• O r^ l vf cn crj cc cc 1 o o o o o o o o • O l U li-lt M II r-l LL CNJ >- > r- o r- co -o N- cn CO co CJ O C'J O O O FPRTRAf' ! IV G CON P IL F f iv< A1N 0 3 - i C — 7 5 23 :5 5 : 11 PAGE 0003 > CCS9 0090 0C91 778 779 GP TP 779 Y2=0.C • NPRSC= < (GN AC*YT FLP( V , 1 , S ) / 100. ) * ('Y 1+Y2 ) ) / ( < 1. 0+I MT ( A ) ) ** ( YR+NORTH 1 *CCRA T) + rPTATNl V,'l ,S > ) ) 0092 C093 MOF• SC = Nnr-SC + ( (GSAC*YI ELP( V, 1, 3 ) / IOC. ) * < Y H Y2) ) / ( ( 1 .0+1 NT( A) ) ** (YR* *SPUTK( CCRAT ) + .RC:TATN( V , 1 ,S ) ) ) NDP.SC = NPRSC + ( (KNACKY I EL 0 t V , 2 . S ) / 10 0 . )>'< ( Y H Y2 ) ) / < (1 .0 + I NT ( A ) ) ** ( YR + 009'+' . * N G \" T H ( C C. P. A T ) + P. 0 T A T N ( V > 2 » S ) ) ) NDRSC = NDRSC+ ( (IYS AC*Y I EL0( V , 2, S ) / 100. )*( Y1+-Y2) ) / ( ( 1 .0+!NT( A ) )**( YR + *50UTK(CCRAT)+PQ TATN (V,2.S) ) ) 00 95 00 9 6 NDR^C=r>0RSC + ( (PNAC*YIELD( V , 3, S ) / 10 C . ) * 1 YI + Y2 ) ) / I t 1 . 0 +1 N T ( A ) ) ** (YR + *N0RTH ( C CRAT)+P.CTATN ( V,3 , S ) ) ) nDPSr = f'PR.SC. + ( ( PS.AC*YI ELD( V , 3, S) / iGC. ) *( Y1+ Y2) ) / ( ( l.G + I MT (A ) (YR+ 009 7 00 9 5 100 '\"SOUTH! Cr.o AT ) + PCT AT,N( Vt 3 t S ) ) ) CONTINUE DO 27 L = l , 3 CO 99 010 0 0101 c c K - c e = c . o IF(6U . - M.E0.1) GP TO 25 IF (CCRAT.LT.l_ ) C 0 TO 2 5 0x0 2 01 J3 0 10 4 I F ( M E R.EC.0) GO T P 51 X?=PLANT. (V , 1,CCRAT ,NER,L ) X2 = PLANT ( V,2,CCRAT , [ \\ F R,L ) 0105 0106 0107 51 X3=PLANT(V,3 tCCRAT, NER,L) P-0 TO 5 2 X1=0 01 JB •0109 0110 52 X2=0 X3 = 0 IF(SER.EO.O) GO TO 53 0111 0112 0 11 3 X4 = P L A M (V ,1 ,CCR AT , SER , L ) X5=PLANT{V,2,CCRAT,SEP,L) Xfc= 0 L A NT ( V t 3 t CCR AT , S EP. t L ) 0114 0115 0 116 53 GO TC 54 X 4=0 'X5=0 0117 0 11 8 54. X6=0 0CPL = (X1*GNAC*PLCP5T< A) ) + ( X4*GNAC*PL COST (A) ) +( X2>?MNAC.*PLC3 ST( A ) )+( *X5*-'SAC*PL COST ( A ) ) + ( X3*PNAC*PLCOST (A ) ) + (X6*PSAC*PLCOST ( A) } 0119 0120 0131 25 DCPL = iOC PL/( 1 .0 +IMT ( A) )** ) + ( N T C E *M T COS T ( A ) )+(F EOPFM^-RECOST (A) ) + ( B R I G l * B R I G l C ( A ) ) + ( f? PC 2 04 1=1,3 ,4X,' 0153 0154 0155 IK = 1 I J=l 00 762 S=l,5 01 5 6 015 7 015 3 762 PC 762 L=l,3 TSCNDR( I ,1K,S , I J , L ) = T S C N D f i ( I , I K , S , IJ , L)/SUMNDP(I.IK.S, I J . L ) WF ITF( 6,20 5) I, IK,.I J , ( ( T SON OR I I , IK ,S, I J,L) ,L =1 , 3 ) ,S =1 , 5 ) ' 015 9 0160 . 0161 205 FORMAT(2X, ,A ,,I1,'B',I1,'V',I1,3X,15F8.7) IK = 2 . DO 763 S=l,5 0 i 6 2 0163 0 1 64 763 CO 763 L=l,3 TSCNOKII , IK,S,IJ,L)=TSCNDR(I ,IK ,S,IJ,L)/SUMNDP ( I , I K , S , I J , L ) WP. IT F( 6, 20 6 ) I , IK, I J , ( ( TSCNDP ( I , IK, S, I J ,LI ,L = 1 , 3) ,S = 1, 5) 0 16 5 0166 0167 2 06 FORMAT (2X , •A 1 , 11 , •B«,I 1,•V* , I 1 ,3X, 15F8.7) IJ.= 2 ' 00 764 S=l,5 0163 0169 017 0 764 DO 764 L=l,3 TSCNt'R ( I , I K , S , I J , L ) =TSCNDP ( I , I K ,5, IJ , L) /SUMNDP ( I, I K , S , I J , L ) WK ITE(6,207) I, I K , I J , (< TSCNDP( I , IK , S, IJ , L ) ,L=1,3 ) , S = l , 5 ) 0 1 71 0172 0173 207 204 F0RMAT(2X, ,A' ,11 8 * »11 , ' V * ,11 ,2X,15F8.7) o CONTINUE 00 TC 430 01 74 0175 9999 STOP EMC TOTAL MEMORY REQUIREMENTS 002238 BYTES COMPILE T I M F -. 1.5 SECONDS vo F O R - R A N I V G r O M P I L F R Y E A R 0 3 - 1 0 - 7 5 2 3 : 5 5 : 1 3 P A G E 0 0 0 1 com . O C 02 0 0 0 5 . 0 0 )'+ S U B ? C U T I (ME Y E A R I N T E G E R R O T ATM(2 ,3 ,5 ) r i . ' • • \" • \\ ? I r.\\- Y I E L L ( 2 , 3 , 5 ) C C M ? ' C N / B 1 / R O T A T M , Y I E L D C 0 . » 5 J O 0 6 ) 7 D O 7 1 = 1 , 2 D O ' 6 J = l , 5 R G A D ( 5 , 1 0 0 ) ( R O T A T . : t I , J , K ) , K = 1 , 5 ) , ( Y I F L D ( I , J , K . ) , K = 1 , 5 ) C C O 3 1QJ9 • 0 0 1 J 1 0 0 f. 7 F O F , V A T ( . c 1 3 , 5 F 6 . 0 ) C O N T I N U E C O N T I N U E 0 0 1 1 0 0 1 2 R E T U R N E N D T O T A L M E M O R Y R E Q U I R E M E N T S 000210 B Y T E S C O M P I L E T I K E = • C O S E C O N D S O FORTRAN I V G . C O P P l l E R LTG 02-10-75 22:55:13 J C J 1 S U B R O U T I N E L A G 0 0 0 2 . I N T E G E R N O R T H ( 4 ) , S C U T H ( 4 ) 0 0 0 3 0 C \" M C N / B 2 / r O R T h ! f S O L T H 0 0 ) 4 F E A 0 ( 5 , 1 0 1 ) ( N O R T H ! I ) , 1 = 1 , 4 ) , ( S O U T H ( I ) , 1 = 1 , 4 ) OC 05 TUl F O R M A T ( 8 1 2 ) ~ 0 0 0 6 R E T U R N 0 0 0 7 E N D T O T A L M E M O R Y R E Q U I R E M E N T S 0 0 0 1 9 8 B Y T E S C O M P I L t T I M E = oTo S E C O N D S 0301 S U B R O U T I N E P R I C F 00 )2 INTEGEP A 0 3 0 1 - DIMENS I ON F P { 2 ) , C P ( 3 ) ,HP< 3) ,BP(5) , C Y P ( 3 ) , F i 3) ,H T )•••, COMMON/83/FP,CP,HP,BP,CYP,F,h • CC)5 0 0 8 A = 2 , 3 0006 t-E »!) ( 5, 1C2 ) FP ( A) , CP( A) , HP( A) ,BP ( A ),C YP( A) ,F{ A) ,H( A) OC )7 102 FORMAT ( 7 ( F3 . 0 ,1X ) ) 0003 f? CONTINUE GJ09 RETURN 0010 END T O T A L M E M O R Y R E O U I P E M F N T S 0 0 0 1 9 4 B Y T E S C O M P I L E T I M E = T T O S E C O N D S >uK,-i4.N'lV _ U;MP1LH>- TTTST- : . ,•••.-10-75 ' ' i L 0 _ 3 • 5 i ; : 1 3 P A G E . u O O l OC 3 7 0 0 n S U B R O U T I N E COST 0 0 J 2 • INTEGER. A - J ; 5 J 3 F f - ' / i L I NT ( 3 )» MN COS T ( 3 ) < f' T C 0 c T ( ) — D l r f l I G \" ' : y ! 3 ?' C T ' 3 1 . ' \" ' 3 ) : C Z ( ; , ' C F ' ; ) ' C G m.c.m, b*COST < ,, S Pco *p.F )0O6 \"fiTj q _~_~T .'^ ^ ^ * ' ^^ » CZ » C F , CG , C G t f'NC C'S T Bsc T sT » ^PC0S T f F ^C 0 ^ BF I C C ' I 0 r t , S v C U L C , B G C U L C , P L C 0 S T , I N T , K T 0 0S T . a R I G i C , ^ ™ : : ! \" ' \" ' f ' ' CT ( A ) , CC ( A ) , CZ (A ) , C F ( A ) , CG( U , CO ( A ) , M.NCn c T < A ) , BR - ^ f e r ^ S M C U L C ? A C O N T I N U E P E T U F N 0 011 END I U T A L MEMORY R F C U I R f c M E N T S 0 0 U 2 0 C B Y T E S C O M P I L E T I M E = p . ! S E C O N D S i m o 13 > -r CO (- (NJ i— < - a I— o cr cc 1 2 O IJ. o o o o o o II CM |T| I— - -—' r - l C> II II c c-. c c. c c ir. o r-LO —--