Bayesian decision analysis for pavement management
department or school: Applied Science, Faculty of
department or school: Civil Engineering, Department of
data provider: DSpace
degree campus: UBCV
creator: Bein, Piotr
issued: 2010-04-13T15:40:20Z
issued: 1981
related degree: Doctor of Philosophy - PhD
degree grantor: University of British Columbia
description: Ideally, pavement management is a process of sequential decisions on a network of pavement sections. The network is subjected to uncertainties arising from material variability, random traffic, and fluctuating environmental inputs. The pavement manager optimizes the whole system subject to resource constraints, and avoids sub optimization of sections. The optimization process accounts for the dynamics of the pavement system. In addition to objective data the manager seeks information from a number of experts, and considers selected social-political factors and also potential implementation difficulties. Nine advanced schemes that have been developed for various pavement administrations are compared to the ideal. Although the schemes employ methods capable of handling the pavement system's complexities in isolation, not one can account for all complexities simultaneously. Bayesian decision analysis with recent extensions is useful for attacking the problem at hand. The method prescribes that when a decision maker is faced with a choice in an uncertain situation, he should pick the alternative with the maximum expected utility. To illustrate the potential of Bayesian decision analysis for pavement management, the author develops a Markov decision model for the operation of one pavement section. Consequences in each stage are evaluated by multi-attribute utility. The states are built of multiple pavement variables, such as strength, texture, roughness, etc. Group opinion and network optimization are recommended for future research, and decision analysis suggested as a promising way to attack these more complex problems. This thesis emphasizes the utility part of decision analysis, while it modifies an existing approach to handle the probability part. A procedure is developed for Bayesian updating of Markov transition matrices where the prior distributions are of the beta class, and are based on surveys of pavement condition and on engineering judgement. Preferences of …
aggregated CHO: https://circle.library.ubc.ca/rest/handle/2429/23438
note: BAYESIAN DECISION ANALYSIS ROR PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT by PIOTR BEIN > P o l y t e k n i s k K a n d i d a t , The T e c h n i c a l U n i v e r s i t y o f Denmark, 1975 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES (The Depar tmen t o f C i v i l E n g i n e e r i n g ) We a c c e p t t h i s t h e s i s as c o n f o r m i n g t o t he r e q u i r e d s t a n d a r d THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY i ri May i 1981 P i o t r B e i n , 1981 In presenting th is thes is in p a r t i a l fu l f i lment of the requirements for an advanced degree at the Un ivers i ty of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the L ibrary sha l l make it f ree ly ava i l ab le for reference and study. I fur ther agree that permission for extensive copying of th is thes is for scho la r ly purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by h is representa t ives . It is understood that copying or pub l ica t ion o f th is thes is fo r f i n a n c i a l gain s h a l l not be allowed without my wri t ten permission. Department of Oi^^nJ^ The Univers i ty of B r i t i s h Columbia 2075 Wesbrook P l a c e Vancouver, Canada V6T 1WS Date ^ l u ^ e - \G , \<38j i i . ABSTRACT Ideally, pavement management is a process of sequential decisions on a network of pavement sections. The network is subjected to uncertainties arising from material variability, random traffic, and fluctuating environ-mental inputs. The pavement manager optimizes the whole system subject to resource constraints, and avoids suboptimization of sections. The optimiza-tion process accounts for the dynamics of the pavement system. In addition to objective data the manager seeks information from a number of experts, and considers selected social-politica1 factors and also potential imple-mentation difficulties. Nine advanced schemes that have been developed for various pavement administrations are compared to the ideal. Although the schemes…
has type: Thesis/Dissertation
is shown at: 10.14288/1.0062851
language: eng
degree discipline: Civil Engineering
provider: Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library
publisher: University of British Columbia
rights: For non-commercial purposes only, such as research, private study and education. Additional conditions apply, see Terms of Use https://open.library.ubc.ca/terms_of_use.
scholar level: Graduate
type: Text
identifier URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2429/23438