Modelling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Arboreal Diversity of the UBC Vancouver Campus from 2050 to 2080
department or school: Forestry, Faculty of
department or school: Forest and Conservation Sciences, Department of
data provider: DSpace
contributor: University of British Columbia. Faculty of Forestry
contributor: University of British Columbia. Sustainability and Engineering
contributor: University of British Columbia. Campus and Community Planning
creator: Liang, Chris
issued: 2021-07-13T18:36:56Z
issued: 2021-04-10
description: Climate change poses a considerable risk to forest diversity in urban communities. The University of British Columbia (UBC) seeks to identify vulnerable tree species on campus and apply strategies for sustaining arboreal diversity in future decades. In contribution to these efforts, this study investigated the potential shift in tree composition on the UBC Vancouver Campus over the next century by (1) predicting suitable climatic habitat for 128 campus species in 2050 and 2080, and (2) mapping the expected change in species richness across North America. Species distribution modelling was performed to define the current range of temperature and precipitation conditions for each tree species. The ranges were projected into RCP 8.5 worst-case climate scenarios for 2050 and 2080 as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Results indicate that climate change is expected to have a substantial impact on suitable habitat for trees on the UBC campus; 32% of the species are projected to lose their suitable climatic conditions on campus by 2080. On average, species ranges are projected to shift northwards by 8.1 (~ 900 km) in the coming century from 40.7 N to 48.7 N. Species estimated to have the greatest range shift such as silver birch (B. pendula) may require careful maintenance, or replacement with species of similar ecological function in the future. This study highlights the urgency of climate-induced habitat decline at UBC Vancouver and provides insight for a ‘Trees and Biodiversity’ strategy to restore and enhance arboreal diversity. Disclaimer: “UBC SEEDS provides students with the opportunity to share the findings of their studies, as well as their opinions, conclusions and recommendations with the UBC community. The reader should bear in mind that this is a student project/report and is not an official document of UBC. Furthermore readers should bear in mind that these reports may not reflect the current status of activities at UBC. We urge you to…
aggregated CHO: https://circle.library.ubc.ca/rest/handle/2429/78940
note: Modelling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Arboreal Diversity of the UBC Vancouver Campus from 2050 to 2080 Prepared by: Chris Liang Prepared for: Course Code: FCOR 599 University of British Columbia Date: 10 April 2021 Disclaimer: “UBC SEEDS Sustainability Program provides students with the opportunity to share the findings of their studies, as well as their opinions, conclusions and recommendations with the UBC community. The reader should bear in mind that this is a student research project and is not an official document of UBC. Furthermore, readers should bear in mind that these reports may not reflect the current status of activities at UBC. We urge you to contact the research persons mentioned in a report or the SEEDS Sustainability Program representative about the current status of the subject matter of a report”. University of British Columbia Social Ecological Economic Development Studies (SEEDS) Sustainability Program Student Research Report University of British Columbia Modelling the Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Arboreal Diversity of the UBC Vancouver Campus from 2050 to 2080 Chris Liang, B.A & Sc. MGEM Capstone Project Faculty of Forestry April 10th, 2021 2 Abstract Climate change poses a considerable risk to forest diversity in urban communities. The University of British Columbia (UBC) seeks to identify vulnerable tree species on campus and apply strategies for sustaining arboreal diversity in future decades. In contribution to these efforts, this study investigated the potential shift in tree composition on the UBC Vancouver Campus over the next century by (1) predicting suitable climatic habitat for 128 campus species in 2050 and 2080, and (2) mapping the expected change in species richness across North America. Species distribution modelling was performed to define the current range of temperature and precipitation conditions for each tree species. The ranges were projected into RCP 8.5 worst-case climate scenarios for 2050 and…
has type: Report
is shown at: 10.14288/1.0400159
language: eng
peer review status: Unreviewed
provider: Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library
rights: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
rights URI: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
scholar level: Graduate
is part of: UBC Social Ecological Economic Development Studies (SEEDS) Student Report
is part of: University of British Columbia. FCOR 599
subject: Biodiversity
subject: Climate
type: Text
identifier URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2429/78940