A mathematical modeling framework to optimize the climate change mitigation potential of the forest sector in British Columbia, Canada
department or school: Forestry, Faculty of
data provider: DSpace
degree campus: UBCV
creator: Yan, Yancun
issued: 2025-06-04T17:34:38Z
issued: 2025
related degree: Master of Science - MSc
degree grantor: University of British Columbia
description: Forests play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle, sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide and storing it within various ecosystem pools and harvested wood products (HWPs). HWPs can further reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by substituting carbon-intensive materials and energy sources. This thesis develops an integrated mathematical modeling framework designed to simulate and optimize the climate change mitigation potential of the forest sector in British Columbia (BC), Canada. This framework consists of the Strategic Forest Management Model (SFMM), the Forest Carbon Budget Model (FCBM), and the Wood Product Carbon Model (WPCM), incorporating key carbon indicators such as the total carbon stock of the forest and the net carbon emissions from the forest. The study uses the Prince George Timber Supply Area (TSA) as the case study area. Scenarios ranging from a no-harvest approach to a maximize-harvest approach are simulated to explore the impact of management activities on forest carbon dynamics. In addition, the method used to connect SFMM and FCBM is rigorously tested to ensure the credibility and reliability of the modeling results, demonstrating the framework’s robustness in accurately predicting forest carbon dynamics under various management scenarios. This study also evaluates trade-offs between timber supply and forest carbon management. By employing the epsilon-constraint method, the research generates Pareto front curves that elucidate the quantitative trade-offs between maximizing wood supply versus maximizing total forest carbon stock or minimizing net forest carbon emissions. It reveals the inverse relationship between maximizing wood supply and forest carbon benefits. Extensive sensitivity analyses further examine how variations in the climate impacts of HWPs influence the model’s optimal forest carbon management solution, highlighting the importance of product longevity and substitution effects in carbon forestry decision-making. The research f…
aggregated CHO: https://circle.library.ubc.ca/rest/handle/2429/91278
note: A Mathematical Modeling Frameworkto Optimize the Climate ChangeMitigation Potential of the ForestSector in British Columbia, CanadabyYancun YanB.Sc., The University of British Columbia, 2022A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OFTHE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OFMASTER OF SCIENCEinThe Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies(Forestry)THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA(Vancouver)June 2025© Yancun Yan 2025The following individuals certify that they have read, and recommend to the Faculty ofGraduate and Postdoctoral Studies for acceptance, the thesis entitled:A Mathematical Modeling Framework to Optimize the Climate Change Mitigation Potentialof the Forest Sector in British Columbia, Canadasubmitted by Yancun Yan in partial fulfillment of the requirements forthe degree of Master of Sciencein ForestryExamining Committee:Gregory Paradis, Assistant Professor, Forest Resources Management, UBCSupervisorQingshi Tu, Assistant Professor, Wood Science, UBCSupervisory Committee MemberCeline Boisvenue, Adjunct Professor, Forest Resources Management, UBCSupervisory Committee MemberHaibo Feng, Assistant Professor, Wood Science, UBCAdditional ExamineriiAbstractForests play a crucial role in the global carbon cycle, sequestering atmospheric carbon diox-ide and storing it within various ecosystem pools and harvested wood products (HWPs).HWPs can further reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by substituting carbon-intensivematerials and energy sources. This thesis develops an integrated mathematical modelingframework designed to simulate and optimize the climate change mitigation potential ofthe forest sector in British Columbia (BC), Canada. This framework consists of the Strate-gic Forest Management Model (SFMM), the Forest Carbon Budget Model (FCBM), andthe Wood Product Carbon Model (WPCM), incorporating key carbon indicators such asthe total carbon stock of the forest and the net carbon emissions from the forest.The study uses the Prince George Timber Supply Area (TSA) as …
has type: Thesis/Dissertation
date issued: 2025-11
is shown at: 10.14288/1.0449036
language: eng
degree discipline: Forestry
provider: Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library
publisher: University of British Columbia
rights: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
rights URI: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
scholar level: Graduate
contributor: Paradis, Gregory
type: Text
identifier URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2429/91278