Science, Faculty of
Resources, Environment and Sustainability (IRES), Institute for
DSpace
UBCV
Liu, Zixuan
Master of Science - MSc
University of British Columbia
Marine shipping, responsible for about 80% of global trade by volume, also contributes 3% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In line with the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) net-zero strategy, Canada has set ambitious GHG reduction targets for its marine sector. Given the sector's reliance on fossil fuels and the urgent need for decarbonization, marine operators are particularly interested in near-term alternatives like biodiesel and renewable diesel for achieving interim targets by 2030. However, significant gaps remain in understanding the supply feasibility of these fuels in the Canadian context, including feedstock availability, market fluctuations, and biofuel policies. This research evaluates biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chain vulnerabilities in Canada to support marine operators’ decision-making from a supply feasibility perspective. This thesis addresses these gaps by developing a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework for biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chains, combining a suite of systems analysis methods. Inspired by the Drivers, Pressures, States, Impacts, Response (DPSIR) framework, this study identifies and defines key pressures and state indicators for both alternatives. Causal loop diagrams (CLDs) are developed to map how these pressures can influence the reliability and consistency of fuel supply through the measurement of state indicators. Strategy mapping analysis, using graph theory and complex network theory, further highlights the interconnection of international and domestic supply chains and the vulnerable supply chain processes, such as feedstock supply and end-user demand. To ground the conceptual assessment framework in real-world application, this thesis explores four regional case studies of Canadian biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chains, assessing the unique regional supply challenges faced by marine operators. For instance, in the Arctic, extreme cold can cause biodiesel to gel, making renewable diesel a more reliable, though costly, alternative for marine operators. In the Atlantic, market fluctuations driven by competitive demand from other sectors and global influences raise concerns about domestic supply availability for government operators and create significant cost uncertainties for commercial operators. These case studies clarify how these factors shape regional fuel preferences, inform strategies for adopting alternative fuels, and strengthen consistent and reliable fuel supply in Canada.
SUPPLY CHAIN VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT OF ALTERNATIVE MARINE FUELS IN CANADA by Zixuan Liu M.Sc., University College London, 2020 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE AND POSTDOCTORAL STUDIES (Resources, Environment, and Sustainability) THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA (Vancouver) December 2024 © Zixuan Liu, 2024 ii The following individuals certify that they have read, and recommend to the Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies for acceptance, the thesis entitled: Supply Chain Vulnerability Assessment of Alternative Marine Fuels in Canada submitted by Zixuan Liu in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in Resources, Environment, and Sustainability Examining Committee: Dr. Amanda Giang, Associate Professor, Institute for Resources, Environment and Sustainability, UBC Supervisor Dr. Xiaotao Bi, Professor, Clean Energy Research Centre, UBC Supervisory Committee Member Dr. Naoko Ellis, Professor, Clean Energy Research Centre, UBC Additional Examiner iii Abstract Marine shipping, responsible for about 80% of global trade by volume, also contributes 3% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. In line with the International Maritime Organization’s (IMO) net-zero strategy, Canada has set ambitious GHG reduction targets for its marine sector. Given the sector's reliance on fossil fuels and the urgent need for decarbonization, marine operators are particularly interested in near-term alternatives like biodiesel and renewable diesel for achieving interim targets by 2030. However, significant gaps remain in understanding the supply feasibility of these fuels in the Canadian context, including feedstock availability, market fluctuations, and biofuel policies. This research evaluates biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chain vulnerabilities in Canada to support marine operators’ decision-making from a supply feasibility perspective. This thesis addresses these gaps by developing a comprehensive vulnerability assessment framework for biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chains, combining a suite of systems analysis methods. Inspired by the Drivers, Pressures, States, Impacts, Response (DPSIR) framework, this study identifies and defines key pressures and state indicators for both alternatives. Causal loop diagrams (CLDs) are developed to map how these pressures can influence the reliability and consistency of fuel supply through the measurement of state indicators. Strategy mapping analysis, using graph theory and complex network theory, further highlights the interconnection of international and domestic supply chains and the vulnerable supply chain processes, such as feedstock supply and end-user demand. To ground the conceptual assessment framework in real-world application, this thesis explores four regional case studies of Canadian biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chains, assessing the unique regional supply challenges faced by marine operators. For instance, in the iv Arctic, extreme cold can cause biodiesel to gel, making renewable diesel a more reliable, though costly, alternative for marine operators. In the Atlantic, market fluctuations driven by competitive demand from other sectors and global influences raise concerns about domestic supply availability for government operators and create significant cost uncertainties for commercial operators. These case studies clarify how these factors shape regional fuel preferences, inform strategies for adopting alternative fuels, and strengthen consistent and reliable fuel supply in Canada. v Lay Summary Marine shipping is responsible for 80% of global trade and 3% of greenhouse gas emissions. To meet Canada’s greenhouse gas reduction targets, the marine sector is exploring alternatives like biodiesel and renewable diesel. However, there are challenges in understanding the availability and reliability of these fuels in Canada, including issues with feedstock supply, market stability, and policy support. This research identifies key vulnerabilities in the biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chains and develops a framework to assess these challenges. Through four regional case studies under the perspective of Canadian marine operators, it examines how factors such as extreme cold in the Arctic and market fluctuations in the Atlantic affect fuel supply. These insights support marine operators in selecting more sustainable fuels and aim to improve the consistency and resilience of Canada’s renewable diesel supply. vi Preface This thesis, including the research design, data collection, analysis and discussion, along with all research components, represents the original intellectual work of the author, Zixuan Liu, with advice and support from the supervisory committee, Dr. Amanda Giang and Dr. Xiaotao Bi, as well as team members of the Pathway to Zero-Impact Shipping project, Dr. Simone Philpot and Hugo Ricart. Portions of this thesis will also be submitted to peer-reviewed journals, with Dr. Amanda Giang and Dr. Simone Philpot as co-authors. The study involves information gathering from expert interviews and was conducted under UBC Ethics Certificate Number H22-03060. In preparing this thesis, I utilized ChatGPT as an editorial tool to enhance clarity, such as grammar and syntax, and streamline content that I generated. I also used it to suggest ways to reduce word count while retaining the original meaning of text. vii Table of Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... iii Lay Summary .................................................................................................................................v Preface ........................................................................................................................................... vi Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................ vii List of Tables ............................................................................................................................... xii List of Figures ............................................................................................................................. xiii List of Abbreviations ...................................................................................................................xv Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................... xvi Dedication ................................................................................................................................. xviii Chapter 1: Introduction ................................................................................................................1 1.1 Research Background and Objective .............................................................................. 1 1.1.1 Research Background ............................................................................................. 1 1.1.2 Research Objective ................................................................................................. 3 Chapter 2: Literature Review .......................................................................................................5 2.1 Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel ..................................................................................... 5 2.1.1 Definitions and Applications .................................................................................. 5 2.1.1.1 Biodiesel ............................................................................................................. 5 2.1.1.2 Renewable Diesel................................................................................................ 6 2.1.1.3 Conventional Marine Fuels ................................................................................. 8 2.1.2 Physico-chemical Properties of Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel and Supply Chain Implications .................................................................................................................. 9 viii 2.1.3 GHG Emissions of Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel ........................................... 12 2.2 Supply Chain Vulnerability Assessment ...................................................................... 14 2.2.1 Current studies on biofuel supply chain vulnerabilities ........................................ 14 2.2.2 Identified Research Gap ........................................................................................ 17 2.3 Research Contribution .................................................................................................. 18 Chapter 3: Methodology..............................................................................................................19 3.1 Overview ....................................................................................................................... 19 3.2 Supply Chain Vulnerability Assessment ...................................................................... 21 3.2.1 Supply Chain Vulnerability Assessment Framework Overview .......................... 21 3.2.2 Pressures and States .............................................................................................. 23 3.2.2.1 Definition of Pressures and States .................................................................... 23 3.2.2.2 Pressures Identification ..................................................................................... 24 3.2.2.3 State Identification ............................................................................................ 25 3.2.3 Causal Loop Diagram ........................................................................................... 26 3.2.4 Strategy Mapping Analysis ................................................................................... 29 3.2.5 Case Studies .......................................................................................................... 32 Chapter 4: Analysis & Discussion ..............................................................................................35 4.1 Pressures and States Analysis ....................................................................................... 35 4.1.1 Biofuel Supply Chain Pressures............................................................................ 35 4.1.2 States Indicators of the Biofuel Supply Chain ...................................................... 37 4.2 Causal Loop Diagram Analysis .................................................................................... 37 4.2.1 Biodiesel Supply Chain Causal Loop Diagram Building ..................................... 37 4.2.1.1 Core Loop of the Biodiesel Supply Chain CLD ............................................... 38 ix 4.2.1.2 Biodiesel Supply Chain CLD with Pressures Related to Natural Environment 47 4.2.1.3 Biodiesel Supply Chain CLD with Pressures Related to Human and Social Environment ...................................................................................................................... 52 4.2.1.4 Biodiesel Supply Chain CLD with Pressures Related to Production Technology and Infrastructure .............................................................................................................. 57 4.2.1.5 Biodiesel Supply Chain CLD with Pressures Related to Domestic and Global Markets ........................................................................................................................... 63 4.2.1.6 Biodiesel Supply Chain CLD with Pressures Related to Policy and Regulatory Framework ........................................................................................................................ 71 4.2.2 Renewable Diesel Supply Chain Causal Loop Diagram Building ....................... 80 4.2.2.1 Core Loop of the Renewable Diesel Supply Chain CLD ................................. 80 4.2.2.2 Renewable Diesel Supply Chain CLD with Pressures Related to Natural Environment ...................................................................................................................... 86 4.2.2.3 Renewable Diesel Supply Chain CLD with Pressures Related to Human and Social Environment ........................................................................................................... 89 4.2.2.4 Renewable Diesel Supply Chain CLD with Pressures Related to Production Technology and Infrastructure .......................................................................................... 92 4.2.2.5 Renewable Diesel Supply Chain CLD with Pressures Related to Domestic and Global Markets.................................................................................................................. 97 4.2.2.6 Renewable Diesel Supply Chain CLD with Pressures Related to Policy and Regulatory Framework ................................................................................................... 102 4.2.3 Strategy Mapping Analysis ................................................................................. 104 4.2.3.1 Reinforcing Loop ............................................................................................ 104 x 4.2.3.2 Top Potency Nodes ......................................................................................... 107 4.2.3.3 Betweenness Centrality ................................................................................... 109 4.2.3.4 Insights from Strategy Mapping Analysis ...................................................... 112 4.2.3.5 Sensitivity Tests and Validation for Strategy Mapping Analysis ................... 113 4.3 Case Study .................................................................................................................. 114 4.3.1 Biofuel Supply Chain in Canadian Marine Regions ........................................... 115 4.3.1.1 Pacific Ocean Region ...................................................................................... 116 4.3.1.2 Arctic Ocean Region ....................................................................................... 117 4.3.1.3 Atlantic Ocean Region .................................................................................... 119 4.3.1.4 Great Lakes Region......................................................................................... 120 4.3.2 Canadian Marine Operators’ Experiences, Priorities and Concerns Regarding Biofuel Supply Chain .......................................................................................................... 122 4.3.2.1 Government Marine Operators ....................................................................... 122 4.3.2.2 Commercial Marine Operators ....................................................................... 124 4.3.3 Biodiesel Supply Chain Vulnerabilities Assessment for Marine Operators in Canada ............................................................................................................................. 126 4.3.4 Renewable Diesel Supply Chain Vulnerabilities Assessment for Marine Operators in Canada ............................................................................................................................ 139 Chapter 5: Conclusion ...............................................................................................................148 5.1 Summary of Findings .................................................................................................. 148 5.1.1 Findings from Assessment Framework Building ............................................... 148 5.1.2 Findings from Case Study ................................................................................... 149 5.2 Implication .................................................................................................................. 152 xi 5.3 Limitations and Future Research ................................................................................ 154 Bibliography ...............................................................................................................................157 Appendices ..................................................................................................................................199 Appendix A Comparison of Physico-Chemical Properties of Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel (Identical to Conventional Diesel) .......................................................................................... 199 Appendix B Table of Pressures............................................................................................... 203 Appendix C Table of State Indicators ..................................................................................... 212 Appendix D Links of Biodiesel CLD ..................................................................................... 234 Appendix E Links of Renewable Diesel CLD ........................................................................ 263 Appendix F Interview Outlines ............................................................................................... 287 Appendix G Other Policy and Regulatory Frameworks Pressure Biodiesel Supply Chain ... 291 Appendix H Other Policy and Regulatory Frameworks Pressure Renewable Diesel Supply Chain ....................................................................................................................................... 295 xii List of Tables Table 2-1 Comparison of Physico-Chemical Properties of Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel...... 10 Table 3-1 Methodology Overview ................................................................................................ 20 Table 3-2 Category of Pressures ................................................................................................... 28 Table 3-3 Degree for Biofuel Supply Chain Vulnerabilities ........................................................ 33 Table 4-1 Biofuel-Oriented Policy and Regulatory Frameworks ................................................. 72 Table 4-2 Top Five Potency Nodes ............................................................................................ 108 Table 4-3 Top Five Betweenness Centrality Nodes ................................................................... 111 Table 4-4 Biodiesel Supply Chain Vulnerability Assessment Result ......................................... 127 Table 4-5 Renewable Diesel Supply Chain Assessment Result ................................................. 140 xiii List of Figures Figure 2-1 System Boundaries for Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel from a Life-cycle Perspective....................................................................................................................................................... 14 Figure 3-1 Canadian Marine Regions ........................................................................................... 32 Figure 4-1 Core Loop of the Biodiesel Supply Chain .................................................................. 46 Figure 4-2 Biodiesel CLD with Pressures under Natural Environment Category ........................ 51 Figure 4-3 Biodiesel CLD with Pressures under Human and Social Environment Category ...... 56 Figure 4-4 Biodiesel CLD with Pressures under Production Technology and Infrastructure Category ........................................................................................................................................ 62 Figure 4-5 Biodiesel CLD with Pressures under Domestic and Global Markets Category.......... 70 Figure 4-6 Biodiesel CLD with Pressures under Policy and Regulatory Framework category ... 79 Figure 4-7 Core Loop of the Renewable Diesel Supply Chain .................................................... 85 Figure 4-8 Renewable diesel CLD with Pressures under Natural Environment Category ........... 88 Figure 4-9 Renewable diesel CLD with Pressures under Human and Social Environment Category ........................................................................................................................................ 91 Figure 4-10 Renewable diesel CLD with Pressures under Production Technology and Infrastructure Category ................................................................................................................. 96 Figure 4-11 Renewable diesel CLD with Pressures under Domestic and Global Markets Category..................................................................................................................................................... 101 Figure 4-12 Renewable diesel CLD with Pressures under Policy and Regulatory Framework Category ...................................................................................................................................... 103 Figure 4-13 Biodiesel Reinforcing Loop – Domestic Supply Chain .......................................... 105 xiv Figure 4-14 Biodiesel Reinforcing Loop – International Supply Chain ..................................... 105 Figure 4-15 Renewable Diesel Reinforcing Loop – Domestic Supply Chain ............................ 106 Figure 4-16 Renewable Diesel Reinforcing Loop – International Supply Chain ....................... 106 xv List of Abbreviations BC British Columbia CCG Canada Coast Guard CFR Clean Fuel Regulations CLD Causal Loop Diagram CMO Commercial Marine Operator CSL Canadian Steamship Lines DPSIR Drives, Pressures, State, Impact and Response GHG Greenhouse Gas GMO Government Marine Operator HDRD Hydrogenation-derived Renewable Diesel HFO Heavy Fuel Oil ICCT International Council on Clean Transportation ILUC Indirect Land Use Change IMO International Maritime Organization MDO Marine Diesel Oil MGO Marine Gas Oil MT Million Tonnes Mtoe Million tonnes of oil equivalent RED II Renewable Energy Directive RIN Renewable Identification Number xvi Acknowledgements I would like to offer my enduring gratitude to my supervisor, Dr. Amanda Giang, for her invaluable guidance and continuous support since the day I decided to join this program. Her insightful feedback, thoughtful advice and encouragement have been instrumental in the completion of this thesis and in navigating my new life here in Vancouver. I would also like to thank my supervision committee member, Dr. Xiaotao Bi, for his generous time, valuable suggestions, and professional expertise, which have crucially contributed to my understanding of this research topic. I am deeply grateful to the team members in Pathway to Zero Impact Shipping project, Dr. Simone Philpot and Hugo Ricart, for their professional support in system thinking, interview design, presentation and thesis writing skills, and their applied science knowledge of biofuel supply chain and vessel operations. I would like to acknowledge the external insights from Clear Seas, the Canada Coast Guard, and the professional researchers at UBC, who participated in this study and offered their valuable opinions. My heartfelt appreciation goes to my colleagues at Lab for Environmental Assessment and Policy and friends at the Institute for Resources, Environment, and Sustainability, for their valuable feedback, support and encouragement, as well as for the cheerful environment we shared. xvii Lastly, but not least, my love and gratitude to my family and to all those who have stood by me. xviii Dedication To a bright future, to the brave, to the support 1 Chapter 1: Introduction 1.1 Research Background and Objective 1.1.1 Research Background Marine shipping transports about 80% of global trade (UNCTAD, 2022), and with growing commercial trade, maritime volumes are expected to rise by 2.4% in 2023 and continue at 2.1% annually for the next five years (UNCTAD, 2023). Despite its energy efficiency, shipping contributed 3% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in 2022, with emissions 20% higher than a decade ago (UNCTAD, 2023). While economic growth in the industry is expected to continue, there is also a strong focus on managing its environmental impact, particularly in reducing carbon emissions. Given marine shipping’s significant GHG emissions, global scope and indispensable role in trade, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) announced the 2023 IMO Strategy on the Reduction of GHG Emissions from Ships (IMO, 2023). This strategy sets out ambitious goals for reducing GHG emissions by specific timelines. The targets include reducing carbon intensity per transport work by at least 40% by 2030 compared to 2008 levels, as well as the implementation of zero or near-zero GHG emission technologies, such as sustainable fuel alternatives and other emissions-reduction technologies, to represent at least 5% of the energy used by international shipping by 2030. The overall aim is to achieve net-zero emissions by or around 2050. Meeting these targets requires a transition away from fossil fuels, which still supply 99% of the sector’s energy (IMO, 2020). Therefore, transitioning to renewable fuels has become the primary strategy for reducing emissions, as recognized by the IMO in its 2023 Strategy (IMO, 2023). The decision on which renewable energy source is best suited for vessels is critical to 2 achieving energy transformation. To meet the upcoming 2030 emissions targets, renewable fuels, such as biodiesel, renewable diesel, and other sustainable energy sources, that are commercially viable are favored, although a wider set of options is being explored to achieve longer-term emissions goals. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency (2021), biofuel has the best potential to be implemented in the short term. Canada has set ambitious national goals toward net-zero GHG emissions. The Canadian Net-Zero Emissions Accountability Act, introduced in June 2021, outlines the commitment to achieve net-zero GHG emissions by 2050. Following this, the 2030 Emissions Reduction Plan, released in March 2022, targets a 40%–45% reduction in emissions from 2005 levels by 2030 . As a founding member of the IMO, Canada also supports the 2023 IMO Strategy, which is specifically aimed at reducing emissions in the marine shipping sector (Government of Canada, 2023a). Addressing GHG emissions in the marine sector has been highlighted as a key approach of Canada’s broader emissions reduction strategy. In Canada, there have been experiments on biofuel adaptation in the marine sector that were strongly supported by both the government and commercial companies. For instance, the National Research Council Canada and government marine operators, such as the Canadian Coast Guard (CCG), have collaborated on biodiesel and renewable diesel trials and performance studies (CCG, 2023). Additionally, companies like Seaspan and Canada Steamship Lines (CSL) have conducted trials of biodiesel and renewable diesel within their fleets (Port of Vancouver, 2022; CSL, 2021). All of these pilot deployments have provided solid evidence of biodiesel and renewable diesel are being adopted in the daily operation of marine shipping industry. However, despite the progress made through these experiments, transitioning to routine use of low-carbon fuels in the marine shipping sector poses a significant challenge. The stability 3 and reliability of fuel supply across all Canadian marine regions is one of the primary concerns, particularly in remote areas like the Arctic where fuel production and transportation infrastructure is limited (Government of Canada, 2023c). As the potential usage of these fuels scales up, additional issues arise, such as fuel production capacity, cold weather performance, and the logistical complexities of transporting low-carbon fuels (dos Santos et al., 2017). Therefore, further research is critical to assess the vulnerabilities within Canada's low-carbon fuel supply chain, addressing these concerns and identifying suitable near-term fuel options that will support the achievement of the 2030 emission reduction targets. 1.1.2 Research Objective This research aims to evaluate the supply chain vulnerability of near-term low-carbon alternative marine fuels, specifically biodiesel and renewable diesel ("biofuel"), within the Canadian context. Given the complexity of alternative fuel supply chains, this study applies a systems thinking approach to identify vulnerabilities in biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chain processes in Canada and highlight opportunities for supply chain improvements. To achieve these aims, the research objectives of this thesis are to: 1) develop a comprehensive framework to assess and identify key vulnerabilities within the biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chains for the Canadian marine sector 2) characterize the variation in supply chain vulnerabilities of biodiesel and renewable diesel across Canadian marine regions and between different types of marine operators, using a case study approach. 3) identify opportunities to reduce supply chain vulnerabilities in different marine regions, supporting a more resilient biofuel supply chain in Canada. 4 In the remaining sections of this thesis, Chapter 2 presents a comprehensive literature review, covering foundational knowledge of biodiesel and renewable diesel, an examination of existing studies on biofuel supply chain vulnerabilities, and the identification of key research gaps. This chapter demonstrates the need for a comprehensive biofuel supply chain vulnerability assessment framework specific for the Canadian biofuel sector. Chapter 3 outlines the methodology used to assess these vulnerabilities, describing the research design, data sources, and analytical framework employed to capture the complexities and dynamics of the biofuel supply chain. In Chapter 4, the analysis and discussion section develops supply chain vulnerability assessment frameworks specifically for the biodiesel and renewable diesel, identifying vulnerable supply chain processes and applying regional case studies to demonstrate real-world biofuel supply chain vulnerabilities for Canadian marine regions from the perspective of marine operators. This analysis explores how identified vulnerabilities impact the availability, reliability, and sustainability of biodiesel and renewable diesel within Canadian marine operations, providing critical discussions on operational considerations for enhancing future resilience in the biofuel supply chain. 5 Chapter 2: Literature Review 2.1 Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel 2.1.1 Definitions and Applications 2.1.1.1 Biodiesel Biodiesel, often referred to as FAME (Fatty Acid Methyl Ester) diesel, is currently under active development as an alternative to marine diesel oil. It is a renewable, biodegradable, and non-toxic fuel manufactured from vegetable oils, methanol, animal fats, or used cooking oil (Aljaafari et al., 2022). The fuel is produced by transesterification, a process that converts fats and oils into biodiesel and glycerin which is a value-added by-product for commercial use 1. The transesterification process is relatively less demanding technically and requires lower capital investment, making it suitable for decentralized production facilities (De Paola et al., 2021). This decentralized nature can enhance supply chain resilience by reducing dependency on large-scale facilities and improving regional availability, as recommended by local governments such as Ontario (Government of Ontario, 2024b). However, this also introduces vulnerabilities related to feedstock availability and quality, as smaller facilities may face challenges in maintaining consistent supply chains or meeting regulatory standards (De Paola et al., 2021). 1 “Transesterification converts organic fats and oils into fatty acid alkyl esters by reacting them with alcohols and catalysts. After impurities are removed, feedstock is pre-heated to 130°F, quality-checked, then combined with methanol and a base catalyst in a reactor. The mixture undergoes stirring for reaction completion, then settles to allow glycerin and biodiesel separation. Glycerin is drained, purified, and stored, while methyl esters are washed to remove residuals and dried thoroughly. The final product, FAME biodiesel, is stored for consumption” (Gerveni et al., 2023, p.1) 6 In terms of feedstocks for biodiesel, in Canada, more than 90% of the biodiesel was produced from vegetable oil extracted from canola and soybean in 2022 (Navius Research, 2023). Provinces like Alberta and Saskatchewan are leading producers of canola, while Ontario and Manitoba are leading the production of soybean (United States Department of Agriculture, 2023). Biodiesel production facilities are located primarily in Alberta, Saskatchewan, British Columbia and Ontario (Martin & Lazarevic, 2016). Pure biodiesel is a liquid fuel in its unblended form, referred to as B100. Under current regulations, biodiesel has various blending standards such as B5 and B20, which represent mixtures of 95% conventional diesel and 5% biodiesel, and 80% diesel and 20% biodiesel, respectively(Natural Resources Canada, 2020). The Renewable Fuels Regulations in Canada require fuel producers to have an average renewable fuel content of at least 5% that is produced in Canada (Government of Canada, 2020b). Currently, major North American engine manufacturers accept up to a B5 biodiesel blend, allowing for a gradual integration of biodiesel into the fuel supply, balancing compatibility with existing engines while supporting lower emissions. However, there is increasing industry pressure and expectation for manufacturers to support higher blends, such as B20, to meet evolving environmental standards and the industry’s commitment to further reducing GHG emissions (Natural Resources Canada, 2020). 2.1.1.2 Renewable Diesel Renewable diesel, also known as second-generation biodiesel, green diesel, and hydrogenation-derived renewable diesel (HDRD), is a hydrocarbon produced by hydrotreating2. 2 "The hydrotreating process, similar to crude oil cracking, produces renewable diesel and co-products such as LPG, fuel gas, and naphtha. After impurities are removed, treated feedstock and hydrogen enter a reactor, where a solid catalyst initiates reactions under high temperature and pressure, forming water and liquid hydrocarbons. The mixture 7 It is made from fats and oils and is chemically identical to petroleum diesel, allowing it to be used in its pure form as a drop-in fuel. In other words, it can be used in existing infrastructure and diesel engines without blend limits (Ogunkoya et al., 2015). The production process involves converting feedstocks and hydrogen in a hydrotreating reactor under heat and pressure, followed by separating water and distillation into fuel gas, liquefied petroleum gas, naphtha, and renewable diesel (Gerveni et al., 2023). Renewable diesel production is highly centralized due to the technical demands of the hydrotreating process. This process requires advanced technology, significant capital investment, and access to hydrogen, making it viable primarily for large-scale production facilities Rapier, 2008). While centralized production allows for economies of scale and consistent product quality, it also introduces vulnerabilities, such as dependency on a limited number of facilities and the potential for supply chain disruptions if a major plant experiences operational issues. According to Navius Research (2023), the primary feedstocks for renewable diesel in Canada were waste-derived feedstocks, such as yellow grease and tallow, in 2022, representing more than 90% of the feedstock volume. Used cooking oil is the main source for producing yellow grease, which is collected from local restaurants and households and rendered in closed operation facilities. Tallow is primarily sourced from animal fat collected from slaughterhouses and local restaurants and rendered in similar facilities. Renewable diesel production facilities are mainly located or planned in Alberta, Saskatchewan, British Columbia and Newfoundland (Government of Canada, 2023c). then moves to separation, removing steam and other light gases, followed by distillation to yield renewable diesel along with co-products like LPG, fuel gas, and naphtha." (Gerveni et al., 2023, p.1) 8 One of the key drivers of interest in renewable diesel from waste-derived feedstocks is its low carbon intensity compared to conventional diesel and vegetable oil-based biodiesel. Renewable diesel produced from waste-derived feedstocks has a lower carbon intensity, ranging from 12 to 19 g CO₂e/MJ, compared to vegetable oil-based biodiesel, which ranges from 30 to 50 g CO₂e/MJ, including indirect land-use emissions (Xu et al., 2022) , earning additional credits under regulations like Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations and British Columbia's Low Carbon Fuel Standard, which reward fuels with lower carbon intensity (Government of British Columbia, 2024b; Government of Canada, 2024b). For example, under British Columbia's Low Carbon Fuel Standard, using the carbon intensity ranges mentioned above, renewable diesel can earn $37–$41 per GJ of fuel, while biodiesel can earn $22–$32 per GJ, assuming a credit price of $500 per tonne of CO₂e reduced, based on the 2023 credit price (Blackburn, 2023; Government of British Columbia, 2022). Consequently, although renewable diesel has a higher market price than biodiesel, these carbon intensity-driven policies make waste-based renewable diesel an attractive option for sectors aiming to achieve net-zero goals. 2.1.1.3 Conventional Marine Fuels Traditionally, Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) has been the primary marine fuel due to its low cost, despite its high sulfur content, which leads to significant sulfur oxide emissions. To address this, the IMO’s 2020 regulation limited sulfur content in marine fuels to 0.5%, prompting a shift toward low-sulfur fuels such as Marine Gas Oil (MGO) and Marine Diesel Oil (MDO) (IMO, 2021). Conventional marine fuels, including HFO, MGO and MDO, are derived from crude oil, a complex mixture of hydrocarbons and small amounts of impurities. The production of HFO, MGO, and MDO involves a multi-step refinery process, divided into two main stages: crude oil distillation and conversion processes (Vermeire, 2021). The first stage includes atmospheric and 9 vacuum distillation, which separates heavy residues like HFO. In the second stage, streams from the vacuum distillation unit undergo catalytic and thermal cracking, producing lighter fuel products such as MDO and MGO. As a result, HFO is a residual fuel composed of the heavy residue left after refining, while MGO and MDO are distillate fuels, refined to be cleaner and lighter than HFO (Vedachalam et al., 2022). In 2015, HFO was estimated to account for approximately 80% of total vessel fuel use, with the remainder being MGO and MDO (Lloyds Register Marine & University College London, 2014). However, with the increasing adoption of alternative marine fuels, such as biodiesel and renewable diesel, HFO usage is projected to decline to around 50% by 2030, with MDO and MGO collectively comprising about 20%, and an increased share for low-carbon fuels (Lloyds Register Marine & University College London, 2014). 2.1.2 Physico-chemical Properties of Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel and Supply Chain Implications This section provides a comparative overview of the key physicochemical properties of biodiesel and renewable diesel, with a table summary in Table 2-1 and detailed explanations in Appendix A . Biodiesel and renewable diesel are low-carbon biofuels produced from similar feedstocks such as vegetable oil and waste cooking oil and fat, but differ fundamentally in production processes, chemical characteristics, and storage and combustion properties. These distinctions lead to a range of performance consequences, such as differences in cold weather stability and storage requirements. Biodiesel and renewable diesel share feedstocks like vegetable oil and waste cooking oil, but specific feedstock choices reflect differences in production processes and costs. The transesterification process used to produce biodiesel is less tolerant of impurities such as free 10 fatty acids, compared to the hydrotreating process used for renewable diesel (Marchetti et al., 2008). As a result, vegetable oils which have more consistent composition are typically used as the feedstock for biodiesel. On the other hand, renewable diesel’s production process requires more feedstock per unit, driving up overall costs compared to biodiesel (Gerveni et al., 2023). These factors align with the statistic showing that 90% of biodiesel was produced from vegetable oil and 90% of renewable diesel from waste cooking oil and animal fats in Canada in 2022 (Navius Research, 2023). Biodiesel is produced through transesterification, resulting in an oxygenated fuel susceptible to microbial fouling and shorter storage durations, thus requiring specialized storage infrastructure (Gerveni et al., 2023). Renewable diesel, on the other hand, is synthesized through hydrodeoxygenation, which removes oxygen and yields a hydrocarbon fuel closely resembling petroleum diesel, compatible with existing diesel engines and infrastructure, and generally allows for longer storage California Energy Commission, 2022). With a higher energy density and lower cloud point, renewable diesel is also more efficient in combustion and better suited for colder climates (Bezergianni & Dimitriadis, 2013). Both fuels have low sulfur content, but biodiesel produces marginally lower sulfur dioxide emissions (Bezergianni & Dimitriadis, 2013), with specific emission details covered in the next section. Table 2-1 Comparison of Physico-Chemical Properties of Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel Differences Pure Biodiesel Pure Renewable diesel Source Production method Transesterification Hydrodeoxygenation (Gerveni et al., 2023) 11 Differences Pure Biodiesel Pure Renewable diesel Source Hydrocarbon fuel No Yes (Gerveni et al., 2023) Oxygenated fuel Yes No (Bezergianni & Dimitriadis, 2013) Sulfur content 0–0.012 mg/kg Less than 10 mg/kg (Bezergianni & Dimitriadis, 2013) Water content 28.5-500mg/kg 42-95 mg/kg (Bezergianni & Dimitriadis, 2013) Energy density 37.1-40.4MJ/kg 42-44 MJ/kg (Bezergianni & Dimitriadis, 2013) Flash point 96°C-188°C 68°C - 120°C (Bezergianni & Dimitriadis, 2013) Cloud point -3 ° C -17 °C -25 ° C -30 °C (Xu et al., 2022) Byproducts Glycerol Propane and naphtha (Gerveni et al., 2023) Storage requirement Special storage conditions Standard storage conditions (Gerveni et al., 2023) Transportation requirement Limited existing infrastructure Compatible with existing infrastructure (Gerveni et al., 2023) 12 2.1.3 GHG Emissions of Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel When considering a potential alternative to be used on vessels, their performance in reducing GHG emissions is a primary concern. As stated by the IMO (2023), overall GHG emissions should be assessed from a life-cycle perspective, since alternative fuels have diverse production pathways, leading to significant differences in their overall environmental performance. Adapted from Xu et al. (2022), Figure 2-1 illustrates the system boundary of the life-cycle of the two fuels. For overall GHG reductions, studies suggest that waste-based renewable diesel provides greater life-cycle GHG reduction than crop-based biodiesel, though estimates do vary based on feedstock and production methods. Existing literature below suggests that crop-based biodiesel achieves a 42%-70% reduction, while waste-based renewable diesel provides an 80%-88% reduction compared to conventional diesel. Xu et al. (2022) found that soybean biodiesel achieves a 42%-64% reduction, while waste oil-based renewable diesel reduces emissions by around 86%, compared to conventional diesel. Chen et al. (2018) examined reductions of 68.1%-69.5% for soybean biodiesel and 51.6% for canola biodiesel. Saddler et al. (2023) found that yellow grease-based renewable diesel showed reductions up to 85%, with Ou et al. (2022) reporting an 88% reduction. These findings account for indirect land-use change emissions for crop-based biodiesel, which will be discussed later in this section. Specifically, Xu et al. (2022) compared the GHG emissions of vegetable oil-based biodiesel and waste cooking oil-based renewable diesel at each stage. The main emissions source for vegetable oil-based biodiesel is the feedstock production phase due to fertilizer and fossil fuel energy use, while for waste-based renewable diesel, emissions primarily arise from fuel 13 production, especially fossil energy use. Xu et al., (2022) also noted that soybean-based biodiesel has lower GHG emissions than canola-based biodiesel due to higher crop yields and lower fertilizer needs. Waste cooking oil and animal fat-based renewable diesel has the lowest life-cycle emissions, as these feedstocks bypass upstream farming emissions. While crop-based biodiesel has a relatively higher lifecycle emission profile, biogenic carbon credits can reduce combustion emissions by up to 82% for vessels (Tsang et al., 2015). Despite these differences in lifecycle emissions, both biofuels offer significant environmental benefits. Another critical emission factor for crop-based feedstocks is ILUC emissions. The expansion of agricultural production to meet increasing biodiesel demand causes ILUC, which alters the carbon balance in ecosystems such as forests, croplands, and pastures. Changes in soil organic carbon and nitrous oxide emissions contribute significantly to the life-cycle GHG emissions of crop-based biodiesel. CARB (2014) estimated soybean-based biodiesel ILUC emissions at 29.1g CO₂e/MJ and canola-based biodiesel at 19.4g CO₂e/MJ using the GTAP 2004 database. Chen et al. (2018) compared ILUC emissions from the CARB and GREET models, finding that soybean-based biodiesel has ILUC emissions ranging from 16.9g-26.1g CO₂e/MJ with CARB and 6.3g-10g CO₂e/MJ with GREET. Xu et al. (2022) utilized GREET, CARB, ICAO, and EPA data, resulting that ILUC emissions can add 9.2g-29g CO₂e/MJ to the total life-cycle GHG emissions of soybean-based and canola-based biodiesel. Although ILUC emissions vary due to differing assumptions and parameters, they significantly impact the overall life-cycle GHG emissions of crop-based biodiesel. Including ILUC, life-cycle GHG emissions of soybean-based biodiesel increase to approximately 30g-50g CO₂e/MJ, a 43%-138% rise, while canola-based biodiesel emissions increase to about 45g CO₂e/MJ, a 50% rise (Xu et al., 2022). 14 Figure 2-1 System Boundaries for Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel from a Life-cycle Perspective 2.2 Supply Chain Vulnerability Assessment 2.2.1 Current studies on biofuel supply chain vulnerabilities Research on biofuel supply chains has increasingly focused on understanding and mitigating risks, improving resilience and optimizing supply chain performance. Across different geographic locations, studies consistently highlight that technology, logistics and adaptability are critical in managing supply chain vulnerabilities. dos Santos et al. (2017) identified advanced technology and logistical infrastructures as high-risk areas in Brazil’s biodiesel supply chain. It highlights the potential consequences of underdeveloped infrastructure and limited technological advancement, which can be relevant to Canada as it considers scaling its biodiesel supply chain, reflecting that without further support in these areas, the supply chain remains vulnerable to operational disruption. Building on this finding, Agustina et al. (2024) found that resilience in Indonesia’s biodiesel supply chain is closely linked to its adaptability and flexibility in managing external pressures such as policy and regulation changes. It emphasizes that frequent changes in government mandates, such as adjustments to biodiesel blending requirements, create challenges for producers who must quickly adapt operations to meet updated standards and therefore bring uncertainty to biodiesel supply. Similar regulatory shifts in Canada could emerge in response to 15 climate targets, making it essential for Canadian biodiesel supply chains to develop adaptability and flexibility to handle such policy-driven uncertainties effectively. Supply chain optimization models further reveal challenges, such as feedstock availability and cost management, which are crucial to enhancing biofuel supply chain resilience. Habib et al. (2021) developed a supply chain optimization model focusing on cost reduction and carbon emissions minimization, showing that strategic investments in transportation and facility infrastructure, especially by improving logistics efficiency, can significantly enhance the commercial feasibility of biodiesel supply chains. This approach addresses the high logistical costs, which comprise up to 80% of total costs, suggesting that targeted optimizations in this area can yield substantial financial and environmental benefits. Meanwhile, Babazadeh (2017) highlighted the importance of non-edible feedstocks in mitigating raw material fluctuations in Iran’s biodiesel supply, showing that flexible sourcing can reduce supply chain economic vulnerability. By optimizing seasonal variations and uncertainties of feedstock supply, Huang et al. (2014) further supported this by highlighting that seasonal variations and uncertainties of feedstock supply pose critical challenges to biodiesel supply chain. Studies on biofuel supply chain resilience highlight that integrating biofuel production within existing conventional diesel infrastructure and managing price uncertainty can reduce the supply chain vulnerability. Yazdanparast et al. (2022) illustrated that drop-in biofuel can use existing petroleum infrastructure to strengthen supply chain resilience. Zhang & Jiang (2017) developed a mixed-integer linear programming model to manage economic risks, aiming to mitigate financial volatility. These findings reveal the importance of a comprehensive, adaptable framework for analyzing biofuel supply chain vulnerabilities holistically from both internal and external perspectives. 16 Methodologies used to identify biofuel supply chain vulnerabilities vary across studies. As discussed above, most of the research aiming to optimize used quantitative modeling methodology focused on minimizing economic risks and carbon emissions Zhang & Jiang, 2017). Others, in order to understand supply chain vulnerabilities through system level causal relationships, used a qualitative approach. Groundstroem & Juhola (2021) used causal loop diagram to identify vulnerabilities from cascading climate change impacts on biodiesel supply chain from the U.S. to the E.U., whereas (Ghaderi et al., 2020) utilized a system dynamics approach to illustrate how policy opinions can impact the market share of biodiesel supply chain in the U.S. These methodologies reflect that there is no unified approach to analyzing supply chain vulnerabilities and highlight the value of quantitative methods for targeted process improvements, while qualitative approaches offer insights into broader, interconnected vulnerabilities within the supply chain. Research on biofuel supply chain vulnerabilities generally focuses on specific regions to illustrate unique supply challenges. Existing studies cover various locations worldwide; however, despite several studies on the biofuel supply chain within Canada, there has been limited research addressing Canadian supply chain vulnerabilities in depth. For example, Saini et al. (2021) analyzed how technical developments, policies, and regulations might shape the biofuel industry’s future in Canada, but did not delve into the vulnerabilities these factors create within supply chains. Similarly, Antony et al. (2024) developed a framework to estimate the potential for sustainable aviation fuel by assessing facility siting across Canada, yet their work does not address the operational weaknesses or risks specific to biofuel supply logistics. Consequently, research on Canadian biofuel supply chain vulnerabilities remains limited, especially in the 17 maritime sector, leaving significant gaps in understanding the resilience of this critical supply chain. 2.2.2 Identified Research Gap First, since various studies used different terms and adjectives to describe supply chain vulnerabilities, there is no clear and unified definition of biofuel supply chain vulnerability. Second, while numerous factors affecting the consistent supply of biofuels have been considered, there has been limited research on analyzing these factors as a whole. Additionally, no standardized framework exists for systematically assessing biofuel supply chain vulnerabilities from either a quantitative or qualitative perspective. Research on the biofuel supply chain in Canada, particularly within the marine sector, is limited. While some studies have focused on technical development, policy impacts, and potential production capacity in Canada (Antony et al., 2024), few specifically address the supply of biodiesel and renewable diesel for the Canadian marine sector. Additionally, there is limited evidence focusing specifically on the preferences and concerns of Canadian marine operators regarding biofuel adoption. This is a significant gap in existing literature, as marine operations face unique supply chain challenges that are different from other transportation sectors. Another gap is the general focus on biodiesel in most supply chain vulnerability studies (Zhang & Jiang, 2017; Saini et al., 2021), with renewable diesel receiving less attention. The supply chain dynamics of these two near-term fuels differ significantly, and there is limit knowledge regarding how to make decisions between biodiesel and renewable diesel from a feasible supply perspective. 18 2.3 Research Contribution This research addresses the gaps identified in existing literature on the biofuel supply chain vulnerability assessment, with a particular focus on Canadian marine contexts. While previous studies have limited exploration of the specific operational and environmental conditions to Canadian maritime logistics, this study proposed a comprehensive supply chain evaluation of biodiesel and renewable diesel through supply chain vulnerability assessment. By focusing on this critical area, the research offers valuable insights for both academic and industry stakeholders regarding the feasible adaptation of low-carbon fuels in the Canadian marine industry. 19 Chapter 3: Methodology 3.1 Overview The biofuel supply chain in this thesis covers the entire process from feedstock production to fuel consumption, aiming to assessing the supply chain vulnerability comprehensively. I focus on biodiesel and renewable diesel, with feedstocks including vegetable oil, waste cooking oil, and animal fat, which are mostly used to produce these fuels in Canada (Navius Research, 2023). While the primary focus of this research is domestic fuel supply, I also gain insight into Canada's existing supply chain dynamics by examining global trade and policies related to biofuels. The vulnerability framework, designed from the perspective of Canada’s major marine operators, both government and commercial, addresses their differing priorities and concerns regarding low-carbon fuel adoption. The analysis includes current and future scenarios, considering potential steps toward net-zero emissions by 2050, with scenario insights grounded in literature. Following the establishment of the supply chain vulnerability framework, I conduct four regional case studies in Canada to present the real-world application of the framework. Based on secondary research, personal conversations, and expert interviews, I identify the unique priorities and concerns of government and commercial marine operators within Canadian marine regions. Government operators, such as the Canadian Coast Guard, prioritize secure and domestic-sourced fuel supply, while commercial operators, like Canada Steamship Lines, focus on cost efficiency to low-carbon fuels. These case studies reveal specific vulnerabilities for each operator type and provide insights into the operational implications within the context of Canadian marine regions. A detailed methodology overview can be found in Table 3-1. 20 Table 3-1 Methodology Overview Phase Purpose Method Output Scope and Definition Define the biofuel supply chain scope and research focus. Identify primary Canadian feedstocks and consider global trade dynamics. Literature review on Canadian biofuel supply chain Scoped the research, established focus on Canadian context, identification of vegetable oil, waste cooking oil and animal fat as primary feedstocks for biodiesel and renewable diesel respectively Identification of Pressures and States Identify Pressures influencing the consistency and reliability of biofuel supply chain and State indicators to quantitatively measure the impact of pressures to biofuel supply chain. Literature review on biofuel supply chain challenges and secondary research on measurable indicators Set of Pressures and State indicators that reflect supply chain status and capture dynamic pressures affecting the supply chain. Development of Causal Loop Capture the interdependency and interconnection between Development of two CLDs for biodiesel and renewable Visualized loops of causal relationships within the two supply chains 21 Phase Purpose Method Output Diagrams (CLDs) supply chain processes and pressures. diesel supply chains based on causal relationships identified in the literature Strategy Mapping Analysis Analyze interconnections and interdependencies within the supply chains Strategy mapping tool – StrategyFinder Identification of critical processes within biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chains that require in-depth analysis for vulnerabilities Case Study Apply the framework to assess real-world vulnerabilities within Canadian marine regions under marine operators’ perspectives Literature review, personal communication and interviews Real-world application of the framework, identifying specific vulnerabilities and offering insights into the operational implications for marine service providers. 3.2 Supply Chain Vulnerability Assessment 3.2.1 Supply Chain Vulnerability Assessment Framework Overview I develop a supply chain vulnerability assessment framework that combines different systems analysis techniques as shown in Table 3-1. The first step of designing a supply chain 22 vulnerability framework is to identify potential challenges and opportunities to the biofuel supply chain. Although there is limited research on biofuel supply chain vulnerabilities, many studies have identified single or multiple challenges that can lead to supply chain disruption as shown in literature review section. Thinking of how to systematically understand these challenges, I adapt the concept of Pressure and State from DPSIR (Drivers, Pressures, State, Impact and Response) framework which are for description of the environmental problems and of their relationships with the socio-economic domain (Maxim et al., 2009). Within this study, Pressures refer to external or internal forces that exert stress on supply chain processes. State refers to measurable indicators of the supply chain’s current and future condition, capturing the extent to which these pressures affect supply chain performance. I identify Pressures and State indicators within the biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chain through secondary research. These Pressures are then linked to the entire supply chain processes based on causal relationships identified. I develop two Causal Loop Diagrams for biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chains to capture the dynamic aspects of supply chain behavior. The State indicators serve as qualitative measures of the supply chain’s status, reflecting the effects of the pressures on various supply chain processes. Building on the CLDs, vulnerability is operationalized as the susceptibility of biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chains to disruptions that impact their functionality, efficiency, and reliability (Zsidisin & Ritchie, 2008). Following the creation of the CLDs, I conduct strategy mapping analysis to understand the complexity of the system, specifically the interconnections and interdependencies between pressures and supply chain processes within the CLDs. This analysis identifies the vulnerable supply chain processes. 23 By targeting these vulnerable processes, I conducted four regional case studies to assess biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chain vulnerabilities in Canadian marine regions from the perspective of marine operators. Each case study evaluates region-specific vulnerabilities and connects them to corresponding mitigation actions. These vulnerabilities are identified through expert interviews and secondary research, ensuring the framework reflects the priorities and constraints of domestic marine operators. 3.2.2 Pressures and States 3.2.2.1 Definition of Pressures and States The DPSIR framework, which stands for Drivers, Pressures, State, Impact, and Response, was originally developed by Statistics Canada in 1979 and has since evolved to fit various research aims (Maxim et al., 2009; Gari et al., 2015). Drivers refer to broad social and economic developments that exert environmental pressures, leading to state changes and impacts on ecosystems and society. These impacts often elicit responses that feed back into the system through mitigation actions. In this study, inspired by the DPSIR framework, the focus is on Pressures and States to analyze complex supply chain issues. With varied definitions of Pressure and State in existing literature, this study clarifies these terms. As Pagan et al. (2020) suggested, Pressures are effects of Drivers that drive changes in the State. Here, Pressures are considered neutral forces that can lead to both positive and negative impacts within the biofuel supply chain. For example, socio-economic drivers may create pressures that support biodiesel adoption, while ambitious environmental policies may intensify land competition, challenging feedstock supply Rathmann et al., 2010). In this research, State refers to measurable indicators reflecting current conditions, trends, and pressures within biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chains. Policy pressures, for instance, 24 affect States such as feedstock availability and fuel productivity, which can be assessed by metrics like raw material volume. While existing literature on Pressures and States may not directly address this specific supply chain, it provides valuable insights into potential vulnerabilities in alternative fuel supply chains. 3.2.2.2 Pressures Identification The first step of identifying Pressures related to biofuel supply chains covered by existing literature is to create a keyword list. Following Habibi et al., (2023), keywords were grouped into categories like “supply chain,” “risk,” and “fuel” to capture relevant terms (e.g., “uncertainty,” “risk,” and “hazard”). This method facilitated a comprehensive review of relevant articles. For this research, the keyword list included: Considering the scope for this research, the keyword list is established as follows: (supply chain* OR logistic* OR network*) AND (resilient* OR uncertain* OR risk* OR threat* OR failure* OR vulnerable* OR hazard*) AND (biodiesel* OR renewable diesel *) After generating the keyword list, I used Google Scholar as the primary database for this review, as it captures both academic and grey literature. This approach was necessary because much of the research on biofuels in marine contexts has been conducted by non-academic research groups and non-profits, such as the International Council on Clean Transportation and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory. Using the framework presented by Sodhi & Tang (2012), which categorizes supply chain challenges into supply, demand, and external factors (e.g., factors outside supply and demand challenges, such as regulatory changes or market fluctuations), this research classified the 25 identified pressures accordingly. This approach allows for a comprehensive collection of pressures based on their root causes. I summarize the supply chain challenges, specific pressures mentioned in the literature, and their definitions as applied in this research. The collected pressures are then used in the subsequent causal loop diagram analysis and discussed in detail. To avoid redundancy, the specific details of the pressures are not covered in this section but provided in the 1.1.1.1.1Appendix A as a reference. 3.2.2.3 State Identification After identifying the pressures, I define state indicators to quantify the extent to which these pressures can influence the biofuel supply chain. Although this research employs a qualitative system analysis method to analyze the biofuel supply chain, quantitative indicators provide additional insight into the current state and potential capacity of the supply chain, helping to capture both operational efficiency and vulnerabilities within biofuel supply chain dynamics. The data used to quantify these state indicators came from secondary sources, such as statistical databases and existing literature. I select the state indicators based on their relevance to biofuel supply chain processes, including availability, quality, productivity, and capacity, where pressures can significantly impact the supply chain. For instance, feedstock availability was measured by the volume of raw materials collected, produced, and imported, reflecting the supply chain’s ability to maintain consistent biodiesel production. Pressures such as extreme weather events, which reduce the volume of crop-based feedstock yields, can be captured as critical vulnerabilities within the biofuel supply chain. A full table of State Indicators can be found in 1.1.1.1.1Appendix A . 26 3.2.3 Causal Loop Diagram After a holistic understanding of the Pressures and the current States of biofuel supply chain in Canada, I use causal loop diagramming to capture the dynamic behavior of the complex biofuel supply chains. This research produced two CLDs for biodiesel produced by vegetable oils and renewable diesel produced by waste cooking oil and fats, representing the real-world practices in Canada. Biodiesel’s transesterification process favors consistent feedstocks like vegetable oils, while renewable diesel’s hydrotreating process tolerates impurities but requires more feedstock, raising costs (Gerveni et al., 2023; Marchetti et al., 2008). This aligns with 2022 data showing 90% of biodiesel in Canada was made from vegetable oil, and 90% of renewable diesel from waste cooking oil and animal fats (Navius Research, 2023). Given the complexity of each supply chain process, pressures were organized into five categories to better understand the subsystems underlying the diverse factors that collectively impact the supply chain: the natural environment, the human and social environment, production technology and infrastructure, domestic and global markets, and policy and regulatory frameworks. These pressure categories, as described in Table 3-2, are inspired by Groundstroem & Juhola (2021), who applied a similar framework to design and illustrate biofuel supply chain CLDs for analyzing the cascading impacts of climate change. Based on the core loops of the system, the causal relationships between pressures and the core supply chain processes were mapped under each pressure category. All causal links within the CLDs are supported by references to existing literature and quantitative measurements from relevant state indicators. I used Google Scholar to conduct the literature review, aiming to capture both academic and grey literature sources, ensuring a broad foundation for identifying well-supported causal relationships. 27 In the CLDs, arrows indicate the direction of influence or flow between components in the biofuel supply chain, representing how one process or pressure affects the next. A "+" symbol represents a positive or reinforcing relationship, where an increase in one component leads to an increase in the next. For example, an increase in feedstock stock can positively influence the biodiesel production expansion. Conversely, a "−" represents a negative or balancing relationship, where an increase in one component leads to a decrease in the next. For example, an increase in extreme weather events can negatively impact oil crop growing. This symbology is adapted from Groundstroem & Juhola (2021), effectively capturing the dynamic interactions within the supply chains. In addition, a "− < +" represents a dynamic relationship that shifts from positive to negative beyond a certain point, with the " <" representing the transition point. For example, as international demand for other alternative fuels increases, it initially boosts international biodiesel demand by driving overall interest in alternative fuels, including biodiesel. However, after a certain point, it negatively impacts biodiesel demand as resources and market focus shift to competing fuels. It’s also important to note that the statements used in the CLDs are simplified shorthand representations designed to streamline graph creation. The full descriptions of their definition are provided in the Appendix D Appendix E . These statements conceptually represent variables rather than fixed conditions to better capture the dynamic nature of causal relationships. This approach helps to understand the complex biofuel supply chain systems but also introduces a challenge: not all variables are of the same type or represent the same level of detail. For instance, some variables, such as feedstock storage adequacy, represent broader concepts of storage conditions (e.g., temperature and humidity), while others, such as biodiesel production, reflect more specific processes. I would like to acknowledge that while the summary variables 28 help to generate a cohesive system map, they may aggregate dynamics that should be more specific. Future work, such as system dynamics modeling, should be conducted to refine and validate the causal relationships in CLDs, ensuring they accurately reflect the interdependency and interconnections of the biofuel supply chain. Table 3-2 Category of Pressures Pressure Category Description Natural environment This category represents factors related to ecological and climatic conditions that impact the biofuel supply chain. This includes factors such as weather conditions, growing seasons, warmer temperature, and water availability. These factors can influence crop yields, the availability of feedstocks, and the overall sustainability of biofuel production. Human and social environment This category includes the social and cultural factors that influence the biofuel supply chain. It covers labor availability and public acceptance and also considers the impact of biofuel production on food security and urbanization. Production technology and infrastructures This category covers the technological advancements and infrastructure that support the biofuel supply chain. It includes innovations in crop growing, feedstock processing, and biofuel production technologies. Infrastructure aspects such as 29 Pressure Category Description transportation network and storage facilities, are also crucial for efficient biofuel supply chain operations. Domestic and global biofuel market The domestic and global biofuel market category includes the domestic and international demand and supply dynamics for biofuels and their feedstocks. Policy and regulatory frameworks This category represents the policies and regulations directly governing biofuel supply chains, including incentives, subsidies, mandates, and standards for biofuel production and use. While other policies, such as those for crop cultivation and trade agreements, also influence the feedstock and fuel supply, this research focuses on regulations specifically tied to biofuel development and sustainability at both domestic and international levels. 3.2.4 Strategy Mapping Analysis The holistic CLDs for biodiesel and renewable diesel include five pressure categories, over a hundred statements, and three hundred causal connections, making it challenging to understand the complex supply chain dynamics from various perspectives without analytical support. A strategy-mapping software, StrategyFinder, is used to analyze causal relationships and prioritize areas for intervention. For example, Pregnolato et al. (2024) used StrategyFinder to assess infrastructure resilience to flooding, identifying key priorities by mapping critical statements and their connections. 30 Given the complexity of causal relationships in this study and the need to understand critical processes within biofuel supply chains to locate key vulnerabilities, I use StrategyFinder to identify essential components, connections, and feedback loops in the system. In this study, vulnerability is defined as the susceptibility of the biofuel supply chain to disruptions that impede its ability to operate efficiently and sustainably. These disruptions may arise from external pressures (e.g., extreme weather, regulatory shifts) or internal inefficiencies (e.g., infrastructure limitations, supply-demand imbalances). By operationalizing vulnerability in terms of the structure of the CLDs, the analysis focuses on identifying structural weaknesses and leverage points within the network. This analysis relies on metrics from network analysis and graph theory (Barnes & Harary, 1983), such as node centrality to pinpoint influential elements, link density to assess connection strength, and feedback loops to reveal reinforcing dynamics. These metrics allow for a structured approach to locate core vulnerabilities based on their impact and interconnections, offering deeper insight into the supply chain dynamics. The first step of the analysis is to identify inner loops within biofuel supply chain systems. Reinforcing and balancing loops illustrate how variables interact in a cascading manner, eventually looping back to a previous variable to form a feedback loop. Feedback loops can be either reinforcing, where variables amplify one another and drive growth, or balancing, where variables counteract changes to maintain equilibrium (Groundstroem & Juhola, 2021). Stave & Kopainsky (2015) identified feedback loops in food systems, such as overreliance on inputs like fertilizers leading to resource degradation, which in turn reinforces dependence on those inputs and creates supply vulnerabilities. Similar dynamics may occur in biofuel supply chains, such as increased demand reinforcing reliance on monoculture farming, heightening supply 31 vulnerabilities. By identifying these loops, the analysis shows how feedback mechanisms can magnify the impacts of disruptions, such as extreme weather events or trade activities, creating cascading effects that increase systemic vulnerability. This emphasizes the need to consider the interconnections of these feedback loops to mitigate risks and strengthen supply chain resilience. The second step is to identify the top potency nodes, which are those with the largest number of outgoing links, indicating their role as key drivers within the system (Allan & Yin, 2011). The Strategic Risk Register System, as outlined by Allan and Yin (2010), provides an alternative approach to assessing potency nodes within interconnected systems. This system quantifies potency as a degree of connectivity within the network, acknowledging that highly connected nodes have a greater capacity to propagate risks, making them crucial to system stability. Disruptions to these nodes can have cascading effects, amplifying vulnerabilities across multiple components of the biofuel supply chain. Thirdly, betweenness centrality within biofuel supply chain systems helps identify the bridge nodes or connectors within the systems, which are crucial for maintaining the system’s structural communication or interaction (Freeman, 1977). These nodes, calculated based on how frequently they appear on the shortest paths between other nodes, often serve as "hubs," enabling the efficient transfer of resources or information across the network (Disney, 2020). Literature on the International Agro-Food Trade Network reveal that nodes with high betweenness centrality, while critical for the movement of resources, also pose vulnerabilities by facilitating the spread of disruptions across the system (Ercsey-Ravasz et al., 2012). This dual role reflects the importance of highlighting these nodes in the biofuel supply chain system to maintain resilience. 32 3.2.5 Case Studies Serving as the practical implementation of the assessment framework, four regional case studies were conducted to examine potential vulnerabilities within the biofuel supply chain CLDs in Canada from the perspectives of marine operators. Rather than viewing Canada as a whole, this study analyzed biofuel supply chain vulnerabilities across all Canadian marine regions, recognizing that geographical, economic, and environmental differences can lead to diverse supply chain vulnerabilities. According to the National Marine Conservation Areas System Plan, Canada's marine regions are grouped into the Pacific Ocean, Arctic Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, and Great Lakes, as shown in the Error! Reference source not found.(Government of Canada, 2024f). These regional differences highlight the need to consider each area’s specific characteristics when making decisions about alternative fuel transitions. Source: Government of Canada (2024) Figure 3-1 Canadian Marine Regions 33 First, I examine vulnerabilities impacting the biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chains for both operator types. Using Zsidisin & Ritchie (2008) supply chain vulnerability assessment concept, I qualitatively define the degree of these vulnerabilities based on their likelihood and potential impact, with a focus on supply chain consistency and stability, as outlined in Table 3-3. By analyzing each operator type separately, I identify specific weaknesses and challenges faced by each group. I then compare the similarities and differences between biodiesel and renewable diesel, providing targeted recommendations to address vulnerabilities associated with each fuel. This structured approach enables more informed decision-making on alternative fuel selection, grounded in practical supply chain realities. Table 3-3 Degree for Biofuel Supply Chain Vulnerabilities Vulnerability Degree Definition Low Minimal impact on supply chain stability; threats are unlikely, and consequences are manageable with minimal intervention. Moderate Moderate impact on supply chain stability; moderate likelihood of threats with manageable but potentially disruptive consequences. High Significant impact on supply chain stability; high likelihood of threats with substantial consequences requiring active intervention. Data on the specific operational priorities and biofuel concerns of marine operators was collected through secondary research, personal communication and supplemented by interviews with experts. Primary data collection involved document analysis of open-source government documents and company publications detailing biofuel-related priorities and concerns. The 34 literature review further examined academic studies addressing the operational needs and biofuel challenges specific to both government and commercial marine operators. Additionally, I engaged in personal communication with two staff members in a government marine agency and formally interviewed four professional researchers experienced in biofuel projects involving these two operator types in Canada. Experts were selected based on their direct involvement in biofuel projects and familiarity with supply chain challenges in Canadian marine contexts. This combined approach provides a first step towards comprehensive, real-world perspective on supply chain concerns across Canadian regions, facilitating the identification of region-specific vulnerabilities critical to government and commercial marine operators. 35 Chapter 4: Analysis & Discussion The aim of this chapter is to analyze and discuss the vulnerabilities and their potential impacts on the biofuel supply chain. Building on the methodology outlined earlier, a biofuel supply chain vulnerability framework, referred to as CLDs in this research, was developed step by step through secondary research. This framework reflects the complexity of biofuel supply chains, incorporating diverse perspectives from academic research and the low-carbon fuel industry. 4.1 Pressures and States Analysis 4.1.1 Biofuel Supply Chain Pressures A full table of pressures is in 1.1.1.1.1Appendix A . Based on the identified pressures in this study, several key observations emerge. On the supply side, biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chains face critical challenges due to feedstock availability and infrastructure limitations. Competition for agricultural land between food and feedstock production is a primary pressure, which could worsen with population growth, limited arable land, and increased feedstock demand (Andersen et al., 2012; Mata et al., 2011). Climate change also impacts crop-based feedstock production through extreme weather events and warmer climate conditions, leading to supply volatility (Morrow et al., 2014; Stone et al., 2010). Seasonal growing cycles and specific storage requirements to prevent feedstock degradation add additional pressure to maintaining a sufficient and consistent supply of crop-based feedstocks (Ajiboye, 2023; Wolff et al., 2023). For waste-based feedstocks, raw material collection or imports face challenges in ensuring a reliable supply (Manaf et al., 2019). Improving production efficiency, raw material processing methods, and biofuel production techniques could help reduce these pressures (Gaber et al., 2018; Kesieme et al., 36 2019). The transportation network for feedstocks and biofuels also faces challenges in meeting increased supply demands (Kim et al., 2017; Mohiddin et al., 2021). Special requirements for fuel storage and transportation add additional pressures on the existing network and highlight the need for infrastructure updates. Moreover, since fuel can be sourced from imports, this could support the domestic fuel supply and encourage the development of the biofuel supply chain within the country. On the demand side, competition for feedstock driven by various sectors adds pressure on the biofuel supply chain. Growing domestic demand for biofuels in other transportation sectors, including road, aviation, and rail, also challenges internal markets (Awudu & Zhang, 2012). International demand for biofuels further contributes to demand pressures, as increasing export demand can reduce the available stock for domestic use (Malins & Sandford, 2022). The demand pressures from both domestic and international markets illustrate the complexity of balancing sectoral needs while maintaining a consistent biofuel supply. From an external perspective, policy and regulatory frameworks play critical roles in shaping the biofuel supply chain. Policies and regulations concerning feedstock and biofuel production can either support or affect the development of the supply chain (Axon & Darton, 2021). Additionally, the need for skilled workforces affects the productivity of biofuel production, impacting overall supply chain efficiency (Axon & Darton, 2021). Market instability, such as price fluctuations for feedstocks and biofuels, shows significant challenges for biofuel adaptation, influencing both supply and demand (Axon & Darton, 2021). 37 4.1.2 States Indicators of the Biofuel Supply Chain State indicators, provided in 1.1.1.1.1Appendix A , inform the development of causal relationships summarized in the 4.2 Causal Loop Diagram Analysis and in 4.3 Case Study. These indicators quantify the pressures on the biofuel supply chain, offering a reference for the quantitative insights developed in this study and supporting the descriptions in subsequent sections. 4.2 Causal Loop Diagram Analysis 4.2.1 Biodiesel Supply Chain Causal Loop Diagram Building The causal loop diagram for the Canadian biodiesel supply chain primarily focused on biodiesel produced from vegetable oils, reflecting current practices in Canada (Navius Research, 2023). It began with a core loop that outlines the main causal relationships within the supply chain, from feedstock production to biodiesel consumption, representing a real-world biofuel supply chain as seen in Figure 4-1. The domestic loops consider the impacts of imports and exports of feedstocks and biofuels on overall available stocks but do not include details on international equivalents. A comprehensive discussion of the interactions between domestic and international markets will be provided in the domestic and global market section. These causal relationships were based on the literature review and represent how they are understood by academia and industry. In this section, I provided high-level summaries of the links and incorporate descriptions of state indicators, integrating the indicator data directly into the following descriptions. For further detail, a comprehensive table describing each causal link, its indicators, and relevant references is available in the Appendix D . 38 4.2.1.1 Core Loop of the Biodiesel Supply Chain CLD From Oil Crop Growing to Oil Crop Harvesting The core loop, as shown in Figure 4-1, starts with the growing of oil crops used for biodiesel production, primarily canola and soybean, in Canada. The quality and timing of crop harvests relies on growing conditions, where favorable conditions such as suitable temperature and humidity directly enhance both. The average seeded area for canola and soybean accounted for 21,828,200 acres and 5,549,167 acres annually from 2022 to 2024, respectively, representing approximately 14.2% and 3.6% of all Canadian agricultural land (Government of Canada, 2024i; Government of Canada, 2024). Canadian oilseed processors crushed a record 10,522,947 tonnes of canola in 2023, which accounts for approximately 51.3% of total canola production. Meanwhile, the amount of soybeans crushed in Canada was 1,762,693 tonnes in the same year, representing approximately 38.7% of total soybean production (Government of Canada, 2024k). From Oil Crop Harvesting to Oil Crop Transport to Vegetable Oil Extraction Site After harvest, maintaining optimal storage conditions is essential for preserving oil crop stock quality. Storing oil crops at or below 15°C and around 8% moisture for canola helps maintain stock quality (Canola Council of Canada, 2019). The duration of storage is also an important consideration, as longer storage periods can lead to greater quality loss (Elias & Copeland, 1994). Imported crops can supplement domestic stocks, while exporting crops can reduce domestic availability, especially in years with low beginning stocks (Saini et al., 2021). Canada is a major producer and exporter of oil crops such as canola and soybean. In 2023/24, the total supply of canola and soybean seeds in Canada was 19,100 tonnes and 7,134 tonnes, respectively, with exports totaling 43.46% for canola 61.68% for soybeans (United States 39 Department of Agriculture, 2023). Nearly half of the oilseed supply was exported, significantly reducing the domestic availability of oilseeds for vegetable oil production. For imports, Canada imported an average of 127 tonnes of canola seeds annually from 2020 to 2023, which is about 0.66% of the total domestic canola production volume (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2024a). Canada also imports a small amount of soybean, averaging 500 tonnes annually from 2022 to 2024, which constitutes about 7.01% of its domestic production. However, most soybean imports are processed in meal form for animal feed.(U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2024a). The minimal import reliance for oilseeds reflects Canada’s oilseed production strength, although high export rates limit the availability of these oilseeds for domestic biodiesel production. Most of the remaining domestic supply was used for oil extraction, with a small proportion used for feed and waste use. In 2023/24, Canada crushed 9,500 tonnes of canola and 1,950 tonnes of soybeans, while 5.79% of canola and 23.79% of soybeans were used for feed and waste consumption (United States Department of Agriculture, 2023). The available domestic crop stocks are then transported to vegetable oil extraction sites. In Canada, rail and road transportation are primary methods for moving canola and soybean to oil extraction site. Canada has 14 crush facilities owned by six companies—11 in the west that crush canola and 3 in the east that crush both canola and soybeans—spread across major canola and soybean-producing provinces, including Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and Ontario (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2022; Canadian Oilseed Processors Association, n.d.). Although exact travel distances for transporting oil crops to crushing facilities remain unclear, timely transportation is essential to move harvested crops efficiently for processing into vegetable oil (Prentice, 2019), especially in regions like British Columbia, where stocks may 40 need to travel hundreds of kilometers to the nearest plant in Alberta Canola Council of Canada, n.d.). Vegetable Oil Extraction The commercialized vegetable oil extraction process shown below is the same for most types of oilseeds such as soybean and canola (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2024a). A series of preparation steps, including seed cleaning, preconditioning, flaking, and cooking, is used to increase oil yield during pressing. The main steps are pressing and solvent extraction. The pre-treated oilseeds are mechanically pressed, yielding 70% to 80% of the oil. Solvent extraction is then used to extract the remaining oil from the pressed cake, which contains about 15% to 20% residual oil. After solvent extraction, the total oil yield from the seeds is around 94%, leaving the residual meal with less than 1% oil content (Gaber et al., 2018). The filtered crude oil can be used for biofuel production, while the remaining refining processes remove harmful components to make the vegetable oil suitable for human consumption. In Canada, canola oil and soybean oil production totaled 4,422,368 tons and 329,856 tons, respectively, in 2023 (Statistics Canada, 2024a). By 2025, Canada’s canola processing capacity is set to expand by approximately 6.7 million tonnes, driven by rising demand in both the renewable fuel and food sectors, indicating that 62% of canola grown in Canada will be processed in Canada, slightly higher than the long-term average of approximately half of the canola crop being processed domestically (Canola Council of Canada, n.d.-c). For soybean, the three major Canadian soybean processing plants in Ontario and Quebec also process canola (Soy Canada, n.d.) Vegetable Oil Stock 41 The availability of vegetable oil is critical for a consistent production of biodiesel, which can be influenced by storage conditions, global trade and alternative use. The storage of vegetable oil requires careful management; optimal conditions that prevent oxidation and microbial growth help maintain oil quality for longer periods (Sun et al., 2014). The storage duration determines whether there will be quality loss, which may impact the overall crop availability and cost for biodiesel production. Take canola oil as an example: during storage, the high fatty acid content in canola influences oil stability and the oil quality influenced by autoxidation (Hawrysh, 1990). Although there is limited information on the storage duration of canola or soybean oil, studies have found that rapeseed oil has the highest oxidative stability compared to peanut and corn oils (Maszewska et al., 2018). However, the oxidative stability of all tested vegetable oils decreased by approximately 30% after a 12-month storage test (Maszewska et al., 2018). The global trade of vegetable oils can influence the overall availability of vegetable oil for biodiesel production. While canola oil and soybean oil in Canada are primarily export-oriented, other vegetable oils, such as palm oil, rely on imports to supplement domestic supplies. Similar to oil crop trade, vegetable oil exports can reduce the availability for domestic biodiesel production. In 2023/24, the domestic supply of canola oil and soybean oil in Canada was 4,175 tonnes and 437 tonnes, respectively, with 72.81% of canola oil and 38.9% of soybean oil exported, primarily to the U.S., Canada’s major trading partner for both oils (United States Department of Agriculture, 2023; U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2024a). Notably, it is unclear that this overall domestic supply and exporting vegetable oil are crude vegetable oil for biofuel production or edible for food. This large volume of exports significantly reduces the overall availability of vegetable oil for biodiesel production. 42 Additionally, alternative uses of vegetable oils, such as for food, further reduce the stock available for biodiesel. For example, in 2023/24, the remaining domestic supply of canola oil in Canada was used 29.96% for industrial purposes, while about 62.03% was for food use (United States Department of Agriculture, 2023). These non-fuel uses of vegetable oil leaves limited amounts available for biodiesel production. From Vegetable Oil Transport to Biodiesel Production Site to Biodiesel Stock As with crop stock, the primary transportation method for moving vegetable oil to biodiesel production sites is through rail and road. Canada has 11 operational biodiesel plants, located in British Columbia, Alberta, Nova Scotia, Ontario and Quebec (Biodiesel Magazine, 2023; Biodiesel Magazine, n.d.). These locations are close to key feedstocks areas like canola and soybean, which reduces the transportation cost and complexity of sourcing raw materials for biodiesel production. The commercialized biodiesel production method is by transesterification, a process that converts fats and oils into biodiesel and glycerin. Efficient biodiesel production processes are crucial for maximizing the conversion of vegetable oil into biodiesel, which can increase biodiesel stock. Average biodiesel produced in Canada was around 388 million liters annually from 2022 to 2023 (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2023). Canadian biodiesel production increased from 115 million liters in 2010 to 357 million liters in 2022 which signified a 210 % increase (Statista, 2024a). While domestic biodiesel production plays a significant role in the overall biodiesel stock, imports from the U.S. also contribute to the overall biodiesel stock in Canada (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2023). From 2012 to 2023, biodiesel imports have shown 43 fluctuations, with an average import volume around 344 million liters annually over the last five years. For 2023, imports are projected at 400 million liters, marking a slight increase from 2022(Statista, 2024b). Canada’s biodiesel exports, primarily directed to the U.S., can reduce availability for domestic consumption. Canada's biodiesel exports have consistently been high, and the export trend shows a steady increase over the years, especially notable from 2015 onward. For instance, exports rose from 327 million liters in 2014 to 455 million liters in 2016, and from 384 million liters in 2020 to a forecasted 400 million liters in 2023 (Statista, 2024b). This growth in exports, driven by demand in the U.S. market, limits the availability of biodiesel for domestic consumption, especially as many Canadian biodiesel plants remain export-oriented (Statista, 2024b). Nearly all the biodiesel consumed in Canada is imported from the U.S. to capture the U.S. tax credit for low-carbon fuel adaptation (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2023b; Anderson & Shepherd, 2023), This back-and-forth movement, where Canada both imports and exports large quantities of biodiesel, is primarily driven by differences in policy incentives and market demand which will be discussed in more detail in the sections on 4.2.1.5 pressures related to domestic and global markets, and 4.2.1.6 pressures related to policy and regulatory frameworks. From Biodiesel Transportation and Distribution to a Feedback Loop A systematic transportation and distribution network ensures that biodiesel reaches consumers efficiently. Given biodiesel is primarily used in blends, such as B5 and B20, a crucial part before distribution is blending. Biodiesel is commonly blended at petroleum terminals or racks by pipeline or terminal operators, using methods like ratio or in-line blending to ensure 44 thorough mixing (McCormick & Moriarty, 2023). This finished blend is then sold directly to end-users or distribution company for further sale to end-users (McCormick & Moriarty, 2023). This approach is preferred because it guarantees complete blending, saving customers from the time and expense of doing it themselves. As a result, most users increasingly rely on biofuel suppliers to provide ready-to-use biodiesel blends (McCormick & Moriarty, 2023). Private service providers like Dan-Bunkering can help deliver biodiesel to all major Canadian ports, such as Halifax, Montreal in the St. Lawrence Seaway, Hamilton in the Great Lakes, and Vancouver, B.C. (Dan-Bunkering, n.d.). Additionally, Greenergy has unique supply chains that include both sea and rail-fed terminals, along with storage locations in British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, and the U.S. Midwest (Greenergy, n.d.). These unique supply chains enable the company to source through multiple channels, minimizing dependence on any single third-party provider and reducing the risk of supply disruption. In Canada, trucks and ships are mostly used to transport biodiesel to end users, especially marine operators. In terms of biodiesel consumption prices, an example of U.S. wholesale prices in 2020 shows biodiesel priced around $0.80–$1.00 per liter (Saddler et al., 2023), making it approximately 33% to 67% more expensive than conventional diesel, which was around $0.60 per liter (Saddler et al., 2023). This price difference highlights that biodiesel remains a costlier option. However, from 2011 to 2020, biodiesel prices decreased by approximately 33%, likely due to advancements in production efficiency, economies of scale, or supportive policies (Saddler et al., 2023). Based on domestic consumption, import, and export data for 2022, there are 378 million liters of biodiesel available for domestic use. If all Canadian fleets used B5 biodiesel, including government and commercial registered fleets, the shipping sector's fuel demand is estimated at 45 approximately 79 to 185 million liters per year, based on 2020 registered fleet data (Government Of Canada, 2021). If regulatory blends increased to B20, the demand would rise to 315 to 738 million liters annually, exceeding the current domestic biodiesel supply capacity. There is limited information regarding the biodiesel consumption breakdown in Canada, however, the general distribution of transportation energy use in 2019 was road passenger 41%, road freight 36%, air 12%, off-road 4%, rail 4%, and marine 3% (Natural Resources Canada, 2019). Because of the mandates of low-carbon fuel blends, the biodiesel consumption by road, air, and rail sectors is expected to increase. In the road sector, biodiesel is blended with conventional diesel to reduce vehicle emissions; in the rail sector, it powers locomotives to help meet regulatory requirements for low-carbon fuels (Anderson, 2012; Stead et al., 2019). Although sustainable aviation fuel requires additional processing beyond biodiesel production (Shahriar & Khanal, 2022) , its development can also impact biodiesel supply as demand grows for feedstocks, like vegetable oil and oil crops. As other sectors increase biodiesel consumption, the shipping sector could face intensified competition for limited biodiesel supply, raising fuel costs and putting pressure on feedstock availability to sustain production (Zafiriou et al., 2023). 46 Figure 4-1 Core Loop of the Biodiesel Supply Chain (See Section 3.2.3 for Explanation of Symbols Used) 47 4.2.1.2 Biodiesel Supply Chain CLD with Pressures Related to Natural Environment Summary Pressures from natural environment, especially caused by climate change, can significantly impact key processes in the biodiesel supply chain, as shown in Figure 4-2. Extreme weather events, such as droughts, heavy rains, and floods, create significant pressures on oil crop cultivation, reducing the availability and quality of oil crops for biodiesel production (Statistics Canada, 2021). Warmer temperatures, positively extending growing seasons and expanding arable land, can also negatively impact pests and disease, affecting crop yields (Cherlinka, 2023). Besides feedstock product processes, these pressures can also affect biodiesel and their feedstock storage and transportation by putting pressures on existing storage facilities and transportation infrastructures, potentially disrupting the biodiesel supply chain and reducing fuel quality (Odionu, 2023). This part of the CLD analysis illustrates climate-related pressures and their cascading effects on the entire biodiesel supply chain. Extreme Weather Conditions Pressure on Oil Crop Growing and Harvesting Increased climate change contributes to more frequent and severe extreme weather conditions and rising temperatures (IPCC, 2021). Extreme weather conditions, such as droughts and heavy rains, can severely damage oil crops through physical harm, worsened growing conditions, and disrupted crop harvesting. For example, due to drought conditions in Western Canada in 2021, Canadian canola production decreased by 35.4% nationally to 12.6 million tonnes, while soybean production fell by 1.4% to 6.3 million tonnes compared to 2020 (Statistics Canada, 2021). Extreme weather can also increase pest populations and the likelihood of related 48 diseases, reducing crop quality and yield. Flea beetles, for instance, thrive after warm winters or in hot, dry conditions following planting in canola-growing regions. Managing the rise in pest populations, especially through seed treatments, may be necessary (Cherlinka, 2023). Warmer Temperature Pressures on Oil Crop Growing and Harvesting On the other hand, warmer temperatures, another consequence of climate change, can have mixed effects on oil crop growth. For example, warmer temperatures can help expand available land for agricultural use in Canada’s colder areas. Qian et al. (2023) found that a future warmer climate, with increases of 1.6, 2.8, and 4.1 °C in the growing season mean temperature across Canada, would favor the expansion of soybean production further north and west. If temperatures increase up to 2.5 °C above pre-industrial levels, canola and soybean yields may improve, but the benefits begin to decline when warming above 2.5 °C (Qian et al., 2023). In addition, the benefits from a warmer temperature can also extend the oil crop growing season which increases crop yields (Burnett, 2023). Specifically, regarding agricultural land expansion, although estimates are limited for Canada, evidence from changes in the Plant Hardiness Zones can provide insight into potential expansion trends (Natural Resources Canada, 2022). Natural Resources Canada has tracked the country's plant hardiness based on average extreme minimum temperatures from the 1960s to 2010, categorizing areas into different zones. By comparing the colour changes between two time periods, one representing Plant Hardiness Zones from 1961 to 1990 and the other from 1981 to 2010, a warming trend was observed, as warmer zones have expanded into previously cooler areas. These findings suggest that warmer temperatures support agricultural expansion into regions that were previously unsuitable for crop growing. 49 Extreme Weather Conditions and Warmer Temperature Pressure on Oil Crop Storage and Transportation The quality of harvested oil crops can be negatively affected by extreme weather conditions during oil crop storage process, as storage facilities, such as grain bins, are not fully climate-controlled (Schaufler, 2023). Extreme weather events, such as heatwaves or heavy rain, cause humidity and temperature fluctuations which can lead to mold, spoilage and loss of oil content (Canola Council of Canada, n.d.-b). This can result in overall crop quality loss, impacting both the quality and quantity of vegetable oil produced. When oil crops are prepared for transportation to vegetable oil extraction sites, extreme weather conditions such as severe rainfall and flooding may disrupt rail and road transportation by causing delays, infrastructure damage, and increased costs (Odionu, 2023). The transportation disruption can have a cascading effect on the entire supply chain by reducing the availability of raw materials, which is crucial for biodiesel production. Extreme Weather Conditions Pressure on Vegetable Oil Storage and Transportation Similarly, as oil crop quality can be affected by extreme storage conditions, the quality of vegetable oil stock can also be impacted by high temperatures and humidity. According to Bailey & Shahidi (2005), hydrolysis and oxidation are the two basic processes that result in the deterioration of oils, both of which can be influenced by changes in temperature and humidity. Canola oil stored at 4 °C or −18 °C, results in high bioactive concentrations of phytosterols, tocopherols, and carotenoids and slows the onset of oil oxidation, compared to oil stored at room temperature (Flakelar et al., 2017). The transportation of vegetable oil stock to biodiesel 50 production sites also relies on rail and road transport, which any disruption caused by extreme weather would lead to delays, infrastructure damage, and increased costs (Odionu, 2023). Extreme Weather Conditions Pressure on Biodiesel Storage and Transportation After vegetable oil is processed into biodiesel, storage and transportation can be impacted by extreme weather conditions. For blends up to B20, heated or insulated tanks are generally not necessary. However, higher blends or extremely cold conditions require that tanks and pipes be adequately protected to prevent the fuel from dropping below its cloud point (McCormick & Moriarty, 2023). Since biodiesel blending often takes place at distribution terminals before reaching end users (McCormick & Moriarty, 2023), transporting higher blends in extreme cold conditions requires additional measures to prevent gelling. Furthermore, as biodiesel is mainly transported by road and ship, extreme weather disruptions pose significant risks to maintaining a consistent supply across Canada. 51 Figure 4-2 Biodiesel CLD with Pressures under Natural Environment Category (See Section 3.2.3 for Explanation of Symbols Used) 52 4.2.1.3 Biodiesel Supply Chain CLD with Pressures Related to Human and Social Environment Summary Population growth in Canada can be a pressure on the biodiesel supply chain in different ways, as shown in Figure 4-3. With a growing population, the demand for agricultural land to meet the increasing food needs intensifies the competition between food and fuel production (Rulli et al., 2016). Increasing urbanization further challenges the availability of arable land while also bringing educational opportunities for skilled labor in the biodiesel supply chain (Brown, 2023). As the biodiesel supply chain continues to develop, labor shortages are expected in both the agricultural and biodiesel sectors, putting pressure on biodiesel supply chain expansion (Canadian Agricultural Human Resource Council, 2023). Additionally, public acceptance, such as social trust and a willingness to pay for sustainable fuels, can indirectly impact biofuel use in the marine sector (Moula et al., 2017; Yun & Lee, 2015). Increased Food Needs Pressures on Oil Crop Growing One of the key human and social pressures on the biodiesel supply chain is the growing domestic population, which increases demand for food. In Canada, the 2021 Census of Population recorded a growth from 35 to 38 million people, an 8.57% increase, making Canada the fastest-growing country in the G7 from 2016 to 2021 (Statistics Canada, 2022). This growing population adds pressure on Canada’s agricultural land to produce more food, both for domestic and international markets (Zafiriou et al., 2023). Increased food demand requires more oil crops to be used for food production, a higher volume of vegetable oil for food use, and more land for food production and animal feed. Rulli et al. (2016) discussed the water-land-food nexus of crop- 53 based biofuels, finding that biofuels rely on 2%-3% of global water and agricultural land, which could be used to feed about 30% of the malnourished population. On the other hand, the expansion of global energy security strategies is likely to encourage the use of biofuels, intensify the food-fuel competition and put pressures on the available land for oil crop cultivation. The IEA (2023) estimated that biofuel demand is projected to rise by 6% between 2022 and 2024 in advanced economies due to regional renewable energy policies. This increase raises energy security concerns regarding potential supply volatility. Increased Urbanization Pressures on Oil Crop Growing The expanding population also leads to increased urbanization as more people move to cities for better education and job opportunities. More land used for urban areas reduces the land available for oil crop growing and food plants growing which reduce crop yield and increase food and feedstock competition. Based on the Land Suitability Rating System developed by Agriculture and Agri-food Canada (Brown, 2023), almost 52 thousand hectares of the top three classes of land were taken out of agricultural production between 2011 to 2020. Most of the loss was from a 40-thousand-hectare expansion in urban infrastructure and 25-thousand-hectare expansion in rural residential development (Brown, 2023). Increased Urbanization Pressures on Skilled Workforces With urban expansion, residents have more opportunities to be trained as a skilled workforce for biodiesel supply chain processes such as oil crop cultivation, vegetable oil production, and biodiesel production (Better Canada Institute, 2021). Despite the opportunities created by urbanization, statistics show that skilled labor for oil crop, vegetable oil, and biodiesel production is facing shortages due to rapid expansion. The domestic labor gap in Canada’s 54 agricultural sector will increase by 15% over the next eight years, from 87,700 in 2023 to 101,100 by 2030 during peak season (Canadian Agricultural Human Resource Council, 2023). Crop production industries will account for the largest number of vacant positions, estimated at 15,200 in 2030 (Canada Agricultural Human Resource Council, 2024). In 2023, job prospects in the vegetable oil extraction industry were moderate in most provinces (Government of Canada, 2024g). However, as infrastructure expands to support biofuel production, demand for skilled workers in vegetable oil extraction is expected to rise, potentially leading to further labor shortages. For biodiesel production, specific data on Canada is lacking, but biofuel-related employment in the U.S., including biodiesel production, grew by 1.7% in 2022 (The U.S. Department of Energy, 2023). This trend, which is expected to continue, highlights that a shortage of trained workers could slow the growth of biodiesel production. Public Acceptance Pressures on Biofuel Demands Public acceptance of biodiesel, another pressure from the human and social environment, indirectly impacts domestic biodiesel demand. Although there is a general lack of studies within Canada, research on the EU biofuel markets indicated that public acceptance plays an important role and can even serve as a key indicator of a bioenergy product’s success in the marketplace (Moula et al., 2017). Through a survey on participants' environmental awareness and willingness to choose renewable fuels for their vehicles, they found that the low consumption of biofuels was due to a lack of information, concerns about food-crop usage, and insufficient government leadership in the biofuel transition. Similarly, research on the Malaysian market showed that the public, as major users of fossil fuels in the transportation sector, play a crucial role in the success of biodiesel development through their willingness to switch to biodiesel (Amin et al., 2017). 55 In addition, research on societal readiness towards renewable energy systems found that social trust and support can positively influence attitudes toward the adoption of renewable energy systems and the subjective norms of users (Yun & Lee, 2015). Gaining public support and providing necessary information on renewable energy systems can promote the development of renewable energy, particularly for energy sources directly used by the public. In the Canadian marine sector, while the public is not the primary user of biodiesel, they may be travelers on cruises and ferries, and their opinions can influence biodiesel use in the shipping industry. Social awareness, trust, and a willingness to pay extra for sustainable fuels can significantly impact the adoption of biofuels in the marine industry. 56 Figure 4-3 Biodiesel CLD with Pressures under Human and Social Environment Category (See Section 3.2.3 for Explanation of Symbols Used) 57 4.2.1.4 Biodiesel Supply Chain CLD with Pressures Related to Production Technology and Infrastructure Summary Pressures from technological advancements and supply chain infrastructure can have a mixed impact on the expansion of the biodiesel supply chain, as shown in Figure 4-4. On the one hand, technological advancements can improve productivity, efficiency, and sustainability across various processes. For example, developments in fertilizers and high-yield crops can boost crop yields (Malhi et al., 2005), while new techniques in oil extraction and biodiesel production can enhance production efficiency (Soares Dias et al., 2022). However, as these technologies are developed and implemented, labor shortages may arise due to the increasing demand for skilled workers (The U.S. Department of Energy, 2023). In terms of supply chain infrastructure, specific storage and transportation systems are required to prevent feedstock and biodiesel degradation (Kouzu et al., 2009). Development of proper infrastructure is essential for the secure expansion of the biodiesel supply chain. Technology Advancements Pressures on Oil Crop Growing and Harvesting Production technology and infrastructure development support various processes in the biodiesel supply chain, increasing productivity and transportation efficiency, thus boosting the expansion of biodiesel supply chain in Canada. Research around crop breeding programs can lead to the development of new crop traits and varieties suited to local natural environments. For instance, public soybean breeding programs, such as researchers at the University of Guelph have focused on developing high-yielding, high-seed-quality, and disease-resistant cultivars. 58 This contributes to improved crop productivity and resilience, supporting the growth of oil crops like soybeans and canola in Canada (Yoosefzadeh-Najafabadi & Rajcan, 2023). Research on fertilizers have also led to the product development that enhance soil fertility and boost crop yields. For example, applying sulphate-S to canola at seeding time gives the highest increase in yield (Malhi et al., 2005). For soybean, N-fertilizer application consistently depressed soybean nodulation, but it improved soybean growth where initial soil inorganic-N levels were low (Malhi et al., 2005). In addition, research has improved the monitoring and control of harvest conditions, increasing harvesting efficiency and yield. The ability to identify physiological and harvest maturity of canola and soybean by phenological characteristics would support timely harvest and maintain seed quality. Direct harvesting has been identified as a viable option for canola in Western Canada (Elias & Copeland, 2001; Haile et al., 2014; Morrison et al., 1999). Technology Advancements Pressures on Vegetable Oil Extraction and Biodiesel Production Technology advancements in vegetable oil extraction and biodiesel production can improve production efficiency. For oil extraction, methods such as supercritical extraction, aqueous enzyme extraction, and microwave processing, can enhance canola oil yield and quality (Gaber et al., 2018). In biodiesel production, blending low-grade fats with higher-grade oils and using solid catalysts, can significantly increase biodiesel yield and production efficiency. For example, using calcium oxide as a catalyst for transesterification has been shown a growing conversion efficiency of approximately 93% (Soares Dias et al., 2022). However, to implement the advanced production technology, an increased amount of skilled labor is required for vegetable oil and biodiesel production. A skilled labor shortage in primary production areas is 59 expected to occur in the short future, which could slow down vegetable oil extraction and biodiesel production processes, affecting the overall biodiesel productivity (The U.S. Department of Energy, 2023). Storage Infrastructure Pressures on Oil Crop, Vegetable Oil, and Biodiesel Storage Enhanced oil crop storage infrastructure improves storage conditions, helping to maintain the quality of oil crops. Water content and temperature are the primary physical factors that influence the deterioration of stored grain. For example, studies found that canola seeds with 7.5% moisture content can be kept at 10, 20 and even at 30 °C without considerable loss in seed viability in a 16-week storage period, whereas the high moisture seeds must be dried immediately to prevent loss in seed viability (Sathya et al., 2009). If the stored grain is damp, a combination of tests needs to be done to determine the level of spoilage; these include changes in germinability, assessing free fatty acid levels and determining the percentage of the number of seeds affected by mold (Sathya et al., 2009). If oil crops are stored in a high moisture condition, it can lead to significant reductions in grain quality. The infrastructure and facilities for biodiesel storage are still developing. Existing storage equipment for conventional diesel cannot be directly used for biodiesel blends above 20% because these blends require specific tanks and equipment to prevent issues like fuel degradation. Effective monitoring and control of biodiesel storage conditions help maintain optimal temperature and air exposure. Researchers have reported that storage stability impacts the properties and composition of biodiesel, with key fuel properties like acid value, peroxide value, induction period, flash point, iodine value, density, and viscosity being investigated (Kouzu et al., 2009). These findings support the importance of proper storage to preserve fuel quality. 60 Infrastructure Pressures on Oil Crop, Vegetable Oil, and Biodiesel Transportation Enhanced transportation infrastructure reduces transit times and spoilage, improving the efficiency of oil crop, vegetable oil and biodiesel transportation. Prentice (2019) stated that clustering of oil crop industries at locations with desirable attributes such as water access, agglomeration, and industry scale leads to improvements in transportation infrastructure. Canola seed is processed at 14 canola crushing plants located across Canada, 11 on the Prairies and 3 in Eastern Canada, and at 4 crushing plants located in North Dakota and Minnesota (Prentice, 2019). Canola seed is moved by rail and road, making rail transportation service and infrastructure crucial for efficiently transporting canola seed to oil extraction sites. Similarly with canola seed, canola oil is transported by rail and truck to biodiesel production site. While biodiesel can be delivered to major ports in Canada, there is a lack of information regarding delivery to Arctic and Atlantic areas. Private service providers like Dan-Bunkering can help deliver biodiesel to all major Canadian ports, such as Halifax, Montreal in the St. Lawrence Seaway, Hamilton in the Great Lakes, and Vancouver, B.C. (Dan-Bunkering, n.d.). Pipelines have the potential to become a more efficient method for transporting fuel across land to major markets. Tests of biodiesel blends continue in various pipelines, but further time and development will be required before this becomes a primary method of biodiesel transportation (McElroy, 2008). The recent construction of an underground pipeline by the Vancouver Airport Fuel Facilities Corporation to deliver aviation fuel from a marine terminal to Vancouver International Airport highlights the limitations of relying on tanker trucks for high fuel demands (BC Energy Regulator, 2024). For the past three decades, tanker trucks have primarily been used to transport aviation fuels because the fuel demand has exceeded the oil pipeline’s capacity. Without a 61 higher-capacity pipeline, tanker truck deliveries could increase to 200 per day within 20 years, bringing uncertainties from road supply chain disruptions and increased carbon emissions (Vancouver Airport Fuel Facilities Corporation, n.d.). Reflecting on this example, if the demand for biodiesel in marine shipping increases, pipelines could offer a more efficient, low-emission alternative to trucks, reducing uncertainties related to road disruptions and emissions. 62 Figure 4-4 Biodiesel CLD with Pressures under Production Technology and Infrastructure Category (See Section 3.2.3 for Explanation of Symbols Used) 63 4.2.1.5 Biodiesel Supply Chain CLD with Pressures Related to Domestic and Global Markets Summary As the domestic biodiesel supply chain is deeply connected with the international supply chain through import and export trades, the overall demand and supply of biodiesel in Canada are impacted by both internal and external market pressures, as shown in Figure 4-5. The previous pressure analysis viewed Canadian biodiesel consumers as a whole. In this section, when discussing pressures from domestic markets, consumers and demanders were broken down into domestic marine operators and other sectors to better understand the competition for biodiesel in the domestic market. Since this study specifically focuses on supply chain vulnerabilities from the perspective of domestic marine operators, the overall impacts of international market pressures were also considered from that same perspective. International and domestic biodiesel supply chains are shaped by price-driven fluctuations. Before exploring the pressures within these markets, it's essential to outline the general biodiesel price mechanisms. The biodiesel price mechanisms are primarily driven by feedstock costs, demand dynamics, supply availability, and policy support. Feedstock expenses account for 60-80% of biodiesel production costs (Rosillo, 2009), making them the primary constraint on market development (Gegg et al., 2014). Rising demand for biodiesel drives up feedstock prices, as seen in the U.S., where soybean prices were significantly affected by biodiesel demand (Pal & Mitra, 2016), encouraging expanded oil crop cultivation. Availability also plays a role; feedstock shortages can drive up prices, which is likely to happen as IEA (2022) predicted, while oversupply from high yields can lead to price decreases (Cai et al., 64 2021), potentially deterring production. Discussed in the next section, policy and regulatory frameworks further shape biodiesel markets by offering incentives that counter high production costs and mandating biofuel use, sustaining demand even when biodiesel prices are higher than conventional diesel (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2023).These mechanisms represent the complex interaction of production costs, market demand, supply, bringing significant uncertainties to the biodiesel supply chain. From International Oil Crop Production to International Oil Crop Stock In the biodiesel supply chain CLD, the international supply chain begins with oil crop production. Increased global production of oil crops, such as rapeseed and soybeans, typically leads to a higher global stock, influencing prices. Global rapeseed production in 2023/24 is expected to reach 87.2 million metric tons, with top-producing countries including the EU, Canada, China, and India (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2024c). Similarly, soybean production is projected to reach 410.7 million metric tons, led by Brazil, the U.S., and Argentina (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2024). Both crops have seen rising production since 2014, yet high demand has kept prices elevated, encouraging further production (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2024). However, potential oversupply could eventually pressure prices, impacting profit margins and influencing production decisions. Global oil crop stock affects domestic exports and imports through price changes. In Canada, rising global demand is expected to increase canola prices as yields are projected to rise to 52 bushels per acre by 2025, driven by market demand reaching 26 million tonnes (Reuters, 2014). Increased export demand reduces domestic stock available for vegetable oil extraction, potentially straining biodiesel production. For example, in 2023, Canadian processors crushed a 65 record 10.5 million tonnes of canola, a 20% increase from 2022 (Government of Canada, 2024k), yet rising global demand could lead to a shortage for domestic biodiesel production. On the import side, since Canadian canola and soybean are export-oriented, an example of imports of Indian rice used to illustrate how the global stock level can influence the domestic imports decisions. India has been the largest exporter of rice over the past decade, but the government’s decision to ban exports of certain types of rice and apply export taxes to others has reduced the global stock of rice and increase the rice price. The decrease in global stock limits the availability of rice imports and also increases the cost of rice imports, further reducing the demand for rice imports (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2022a). From International Oil Crop Stock to International Vegetable Oil Stock As oil crops are processed into vegetable oil, global vegetable oil availability directly influences raw material prices, which in turn affects the domestic vegetable oil stock available for biodiesel production. For example, drought conditions in the Canadian Prairies during the 2021 growing season negatively impacted canola yields, leading to a lower supply in 2022 (Statistics Canada, 2023). Since Canada is a major exporter of canola and canola oil, the reduced supply on the global market increased prices. The average annual export price of canola oil in Canada rose by 41.5%, from $1,455.71 CAD/tonne in 2021 to $2,059.68 CAD/tonne in 2022 (Statistics Canada, 2024b). Consequently, domestic use of canola decreased by 2.7%, from 1,077,020 tonnes in 2021 to 1,048,070 tonnes in 2022 (Statistics Canada, 2024b). The rising export price encouraged more Canadian exports of canola oil, thereby reducing the domestic availability of canola oil for biodiesel production. 66 Conversely, domestic markets may import more vegetable oil when prices drop because of high international stocks or when domestic stock is insufficient. For example, India’s edible oil imports in 2024/25 are forecast to increase by one percent compared to the previous year, driven by rising palm oil prices from Indonesia (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2024f). As the El Niño weather pattern reduces palm oil yields in Indonesia, India’s largest supplier, global prices rise and availability decreases. In response, India is expected to reduce palm oil imports and shift its focus to importing more soybean oil to meet its domestic edible oil demand (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2024f). From International Vegetable Oil Stock to International Biodiesel Stock Increased global vegetable oil stocks can support biodiesel production growth worldwide, as vegetable oil is a primary feedstock. Higher stock levels typically lower vegetable oil prices, reducing biodiesel production costs, which are largely driven by raw material expenses, making up 60% to over 80% of total production costs (Rosillo, 2009). Access to affordable and abundant feedstock is crucial for the biodiesel industry’s expansion, as global trade in feedstock significantly influences cost dynamics (Rosillo, 2009). Growth in biodiesel production has, in turn, boosted global biodiesel stock. The International Grains Council reported that global biodiesel production reached a peak in 2023, marking an 11% increase from the previous year, with production mainly concentrated in North and South America (BioEnergyTimes, 2024). Global biodiesel stocks fluctuate with trade activity and price shifts, affecting domestic availability. For instance, as biodiesel demand surged between 2000 and 2009 in major markets like the U.S. and the EU, imports became essential to meet local needs (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2013). Recently, U.S. biodiesel 67 imports have doubled since 2022 due to low European prices, which made European biodiesel imports economically attractive (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2024a). This increase has boosted U.S. biodiesel stocks while depleting EU supplies, demonstrating how international trade affects regional biodiesel availability. Canada’s biodiesel industry is primarily export-oriented, with 88% to 99% of its biodiesel shipped to the U.S. Nearly all biodiesel consumed in Canada is imported from the U.S. (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2023). U.S. policy incentives, such as the Biomass-Based Diesel Credit and Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard, are attached to each gallon of biodiesel, significantly increasing its value for Canadian producers (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2023; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2024). These incentives make the U.S. market more profitable than the Canadian market, encouraging Canadian producers to export biodiesel. Consequently, although Canada produces biodiesel, most of it is exported, limiting the supply available for domestic use. From International Biodiesel Stock to International Oil Crop Production (Feedback Loop) Similar to the vegetable oil example, the available stock of biodiesel in international markets is consumed by various sectors worldwide. The international consumption rate of biodiesel drives the overall global demand for biodiesel. In 2023, global biodiesel consumption amounted to 65.86 million metric tons, and overall global demand is expected to increase further in the coming years, with forecasts predicting it will exceed 75 million metric tons by 2030 (Statista, 2024a). Increased global demand for biodiesel raises the demand for vegetable oil. Biofuel demand, including biodiesel and renewable diesel, is set to expand 38 billion liters over 2023-2028, a near 30% increase from the last five-year period (IEA, 2023a). 68 The growing global demand for biofuels drives the demand for their feedstocks, increasing the feedstock price. The increased profitability of oil crops encourages more extensive production efforts internationally. Global oilseed trade is forecast to increase by 4 percent due to higher soybean and rapeseed demand in 2024, which will require increased oilseed production (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2024b). Domestic Biodiesel and their Feedstock Market Competition Despite 90% of biodiesel production relying on vegetable oils and 90% of renewable diesel production on waste-based feedstocks (Navius Research, 2023), the overlap in feedstock sources intensifies domestic competition for raw materials. For example, in 2023, the U.S. relied on soybean oil, canola oil, and used cooking oil for biodiesel, while renewable diesel used waste cooking oil, animal fat, and soybean oil (Gerveni & Irwin, 2024). Since 2017, U.S. demand for renewable diesel has surged, leading to an eleven-fold increase in feedstock usage by 2023, impacting the availability of vegetable oils and waste-based feedstocks and driving price volatility (Gerveni & Irwin, 2024). Road, aviation and marine sectors all have demand for biofuels in Canada. Biodiesel can be directly blend with diesel to be used in the road and rail sector (Stead et al., 2019). However, in aviation, biofuels need further processing to produce sustainable aviation fuel, which is compatible with jet engines (Shahriar & Khanal, 2022). Therefore, biodiesel demand from road and rail sectors may compete with marine shipping for limited biodiesel stock. According to IEA (2019), by 2030, global biofuel consumption from marine, road freight and passenger vehicle will count for 15 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe), 85 Mtoe and 169 Mtoe, respectively. Although detailed breakdowns of biofuel consumption by sectors are limited 69 in Canada, global demand trends by different sectors show that the domestic marine sector face challenges in competing with sectors, such as road and rail, for biofuel supply. Canada, the distribution of transportation energy use in 2019 was road passenger 41%, road freight 36%, air 12%, off-road 4%, rail 4%, and marine 3%. Increased biodiesel consumption by the road and rail sectors could reduce biodiesel stock available for marine shipping in Canada (Natural Resources Canada, 2019), potentially raising biodiesel prices and creating supply challenges for marine operators, especially those with limited budgets for low-carbon fuel transitions. 70 Figure 4-5 Biodiesel CLD with Pressures under Domestic and Global Markets Category (See Section 3.2.3 for Explanation of Symbols Used) 71 4.2.1.6 Biodiesel Supply Chain CLD with Pressures Related to Policy and Regulatory Framework Summary Canada's biodiesel supply chain is heavily shaped by domestic and international policies and regulations, as shown in Figure 4-6. These frameworks govern oil crop and vegetable oil production, directly impacting raw material availability for biodiesel. Supportive policies, including incentives, drive technological advancements and increase stock availability by boosting fuel productivity. Infrastructure and transportation policies help address fuel storage and distribution challenges, reducing supply chain vulnerabilities. As climate change drives policies favoring alternative fuels, demand for biodiesel rises, though support for other fuels may impact biodiesel adoption. Additionally, Canadian raw material and biofuel supplies are affected by international policies and price dynamics. In this section, I focus on fuel-oriented policies and regulations that specifically support biodiesel and its raw material production and distribution across the supply chain, while related policies affecting raw material supply, such as crop diversity and agricultural support, are discussed in 1.1.1.1.1Appendix A . The structure of this section differs slightly from previous sections, as fuel-oriented policies have extensive impacts throughout the supply chain. To avoid redundancy, fuel-oriented policies are listed in Table 4-1, followed by a discussion of their impact on supply chain processes. 72 Table 4-1 Biofuel-Oriented Policy and Regulatory Frameworks Name Scope Description Clean Fuel Regulations (CLRs) Domestic, Federal The Clean Fuel Regulations’ Compliance Category 2 requires Canadian fuel producers and importers to supply low-carbon-intensity fuels, such as biodiesel, thereby increasing demand for biodiesel in Canada (Government of Canada, 2024b). Replacing the previous Renewable Fuels Regulation, the CFRs mandate a 2% blend of low-carbon-intensity fuels, such as biofuels, with diesel 12/5/2024 5:39:00 PM. Clean Fuels Fund Domestic, Federal Since Budget 2021, the Government of Canada has invested $1.5 billion over five years to establish a Clean Fuels Fund, aimed at de-risking capital investments needed to build or expand clean fuel production facilities, including biofuel production (Government of Canada, 2024i). Canada Infrastructure Bank Investment Domestic, Federal In 2024, the federal government committed $1.27 billion through the Canada Infrastructure Bank to fund the construction of new biofuel facilities (Bakx, 2024) 73 Name Scope Description Provincial Policies mandate volumes of renewable content in diesel Domestic, Provincial Provinces such as British Columbia, Alberta, Saskatchewan, Manitoba, Ontario, and Quebec have mandates requiring renewable content in diesel ranging from 2% to 5%. Provinces like New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Labrador, and Prince Edward Island can opt to be regulated under the federal CFRs (Navius Research, 2023). Detailed provincial policies are discussed in 4.3 Case Study. U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard International The Standard sets biofuel volume requirements for 2023 to 2025 and establishes the RINs system, used for compliance and trade among fuel producers, sellers, and consumers (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2024b). U.S. Inflation Reduction Act International The Act provides tax incentives to biofuel blenders, consumers, and infrastructure developers to encourage biofuel adoption in the U.S., especially for U.S. produced biofuel (U.S. Department of Energy, 2022). California Low Carbon Fuel Standard International The standard is an emissions trading regulation designed to promote the production and use of low- 74 Name Scope Description carbon transportation fuels, including biofuels, in California (The California Air Resources Board, n.d.). U.S. Higher Blends Infrastructure Incentive Program International This program provides funding to expand the sales and usage of renewable fuels with higher biodiesel blends, such as those containing over 5% biodiesel (U.S. Department of Transportation, 2022; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2023) EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) International The EU's Renewable Energy Directive sets guidelines to reach a 32% renewable energy target by 2030, specifically promoting the use of biofuels (Government of Canada, 2024). IMO 2023 GHG Strategy International The 2023 IMO GHG Strategy aims to reduce the carbon intensity of international shipping by at least 40% by 2030, supporting the global use of alternative fuels, including biofuels, to achieve this target (IMO, 2023). 75 Impact of Fuel-Oriented Domestic and International Policy and Regulatory Framework on Biofuel Production and Stock Key domestic policies like Canada’s Clean Fuel Regulations and the Clean Fuels Fund underscore the government’s commitment to increasing biofuel production capacity and market presence. The CFRs mandate a 2% blend of low-carbon fuels with diesel, which directly increases biodiesel demand across transportation sectors, stimulating production growth and securing a steady domestic market (Government of Canada, 2024b). Additionally, significant federal investments, such as the $1.5 billion Clean Fuels Fund and a $1.27 billion allocation through the Canada Infrastructure Bank, provide critical financial support for biofuel facility expansion, de-risking investments and facilitating technological advancements in biofuel processing (Government of Canada, 2024i). These investments not only boost production but also enhance the supply chain’s resilience by expanding infrastructure, thereby stabilizing biodiesel stock levels and enabling consistent supply for domestic use. Provincial mandates requiring renewable content in diesel (ranging from 2% to 5%) further reinforce regional demand for biodiesel, encouraging localized production and reducing transportation costs associated with biodiesel distribution (Navius Research, 2023). International policies play a pivotal role in shaping Canada’s biofuel export dynamics, particularly due to high-demand markets in the U.S. and EU. The U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard, supported by the RINs credit system, provides a lucrative market for Canadian biodiesel, making it economically attractive to prioritize exports over domestic sales (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2024b). The availability of credits creates high demand for Canadian biodiesel exports, particularly in states like California, where the Low Carbon Fuel Standard mandates stricter emission requirements (The California Air Resources Board, n.d.). As a result, 76 Canada’s biodiesel production is highly responsive to U.S. market demands, impacting the balance of biodiesel stock available domestically. Notably, under the 2022 Inflation Reduction Act, the credits have been changed to a producer tax credit, making only U.S.-produced biodiesel or renewable diesel eligible starting in 2025 (IEA, 2023a). This international policy change could reduce export demand for Canadian biofuels. The European Union’s Renewable Energy Directive similarly influences Canadian biofuel exports by establishing strict sustainability criteria and a 32% renewable energy target for 2030 (The European Union, n.d.). To meet these standards, Canadian producers must adopt sustainable feedstock practices, which often entail additional production costs but allow access to lucrative EU markets. This international demand impacts feedstock dynamics domestically, as Canadian producers focus on growing oil crops like canola and soybean for biodiesel, influencing land use and crop availability for other domestic needs. Impact of Fuel-Oriented Domestic and International Policy and Regulatory Framework on Competing Low-Carbon Fuels While biofuel-promoting policies are critical to Canada’s supply chain, they also coexist alongside regulations that encourage a broader spectrum of alternative fuels, which may compete with biodiesel for market share and investment. The Clean Fuels Fund and provincial mandates, while supportive of biodiesel, are technology-neutral, facilitating infrastructure expansion for various renewable fuels (Navius Research, 2023). Additionally, international policies like the IMO 2023 GHG Strategy promote not only biofuels but also alternative marine fuels such as ammonia, LNG, and hydrogen (IMO, 2023). As marine and other sectors adopt these emerging 77 fuels, biodiesel’s role in the market could face competition from technologies deemed more suitable for large-scale applications, such as hydrogen or ammonia in shipping. In the U.S., the Inflation Reduction Act and Low Carbon Fuel Standard similarly support a range of renewable fuels, from renewable diesel to hydrogen, creating a multi-fuel competitive landscape (U.S. Department of Energy, 2022). This diversity in policy support allows flexibility for industry adaptation but may also divert resources and infrastructure development from biodiesel toward fuels with longer-term viability, depending on sector requirements and technological advancements. The expansion of these alternative fuel sources potentially affects Canada’s biofuel supply chain by redirecting investment and infrastructure development toward fuels with less carbon intensity and broader market appeal. Impact of Fuel-Oriented Domestic and International Policy and Regulatory Framework Feedstock Availability and Market Pressures The increased demand for biofuel in both domestic and international markets drives up prices for biodiesel feedstocks, such as canola and soybean, creating a positive feedback loop that incentivizes more extensive oil crop cultivation. However, this demand pressure can also lead to competition for feedstocks within Canada, as crops intended for biofuel production may reduce availability for food and other agricultural applications. Furthermore, fluctuations in feedstock prices driven by international demand, such as through RED II in the EU or the Renewable Fuel Standard program in the U.S., may increase production costs, challenging the profitability and sustainability of biofuel supply within Canada. Domestic biofuel policies significantly impact feedstock availability and market dynamics, increasing competition for raw materials in biodiesel and renewable diesel production. 78 For example, in the U.S., 2020 wholesale prices showed renewable diesel at around $1.50 per liter—roughly 150% more expensive than conventional diesel and 50% to 88% costlier than biodiesel (Saddler et al., 2023). California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard further amplifies demand by awarding credits based on carbon intensity scores, with renewable diesel often scoring lower than biodiesel, especially when derived from waste feedstocks like used cooking oil or animal fats (The California Air Resources Board, n.d.). This incentivizes domestic renewable diesel production and the use of waste-based feedstocks, intensifying market pressures on these resources. 79 Figure 4-6 Biodiesel CLD with Pressures under Policy and Regulatory Framework category (See Section 3.2.3 for Explanation of Symbols Used) 80 4.2.2 Renewable Diesel Supply Chain Causal Loop Diagram Building Similar to the biodiesel supply chain CLD, the renewable diesel supply chain CLD focuses on renewable diesel produced from waste cooking oil and animal fat, reflecting current practices in Canada (Navius Research, 2023). As shown in Figure 4-7, it begins with a core loop that describes the main causal relationships within the supply chain, followed by an illustration of how pressures from five key categories influence core supply chain processes, potentially creating vulnerabilities. Due to the overlap with the biodiesel supply chain, similar pressures in each category will not be discussed again; instead, this section will highlight the differences. 4.2.2.1 Core Loop of the Renewable Diesel Supply Chain CLD The Collection and Stock of Waste Cooking Oil and Animal Fat The core loop of the renewable diesel supply chain starts with the collection of waste cooking oil and animal fat, primarily operated by recycling companies that collect waste cooking oil from restaurants and animal fat from slaughterhouses and food processing sites. In 2022, food consumption of vegetable oil was approximately 9 gallons per capita, and with a used cooking oil collection rate of less than one-third (GlobalData, 2023). Although data on waste cooking oil and animal fat collection in Canada is limited, using ICCT's analysis of collection potential—assuming 100% collection from restaurants, 50% from urban households, and 100% from food processing—I estimate Canada’s potential for used cooking oil and animal fat at approximately 405 million gallons annually (Kristiana et al., 2022; Government of Canada, 2023). The domestic stock of waste cooking oil and animal fat can fluctuate due to global trade, storage conditions, and alternative uses. Higher exports of these raw materials reduce their availability within Canada. For instance, in 2022, Canada exported $92.6 million worth of 81 animal fat, making it the third-largest exporter globally (OECD, 2023). On the other hand, similar with the crop-based feedstock, imports of waste cooking oil and animal fat can increase domestic supplies, though there is limited data on quantity. Although waste cooking oil and fat do not require special storage equipment, proper storage in extreme weather events is essential for maintaining their quality and quantity. Extreme weather conditions, such as high temperatures, can cause leaks, and water from heavy rains or flooding can accumulate on top of barrels, potentially mixing with the oil and leading to spills (Phillips, 2023). Moreover, alternative uses of waste cooking oil and animal fat, such as in lubricants, can decrease their availability for renewable diesel production (Digeoris, 2021). The author noted that a specific breakdown of the percentage of waste cooking oil and animal fat uses remains unknown. Waste Cooking Oil and Animal Fat Transportation and Rendering The next step is transporting the stock of waste cooking oil and animal fat to rendering sites. In Canada, recycling companies like Redux and EcoZero manage this transportation process by truck (Redux, n.d.; EcoZero, n.d.). In the U.S., higher collection rates for waste cooking oil and animal fat have enabled a larger portion of these materials to be rendered and utilized in renewable diesel production (GlobalData, 2023), presenting a potential model for Canada to increase its renewable diesel supply through improved collection efforts. At rendering sites, waste cooking oil and animal fat are processed to produce yellow grease and tallow. Distillation is the current commercial method for small-scale waste cooking oil recycling, offering efficient production (Mannu et al., 2020). Yellow Grease and Tallow Stock and Transportation 82 The stock of yellow grease and tallow produced from rendering can also be influenced by imports, exports, and storage conditions. Despite the lack of data regarding the trade volume and available stock of yellow grease and tallow in Canada, these materials, similar to crop-based feedstocks, contribute to increasing the stock available for domestic renewable diesel production. While yellow grease and tallow are usually stored in tanks without specific requirements, other potential feedstocks for renewable diesel may have special storage needs to maintain their quality. Although specific usage volumes are not detailed, alternative uses of yellow grease and tallow, such as for animal feed, could reduce the stock available for renewable diesel production (Ockerman & Basu, 2024). Transportation of yellow grease and tallow to renewable diesel production sites is another critical step in the supply chain. The availability of these materials at production facilities directly impacts the volume of renewable diesel produced. Waste cooking oil and animal fat recycling companies are also responsible for transporting yellow grease and tallow to renewable diesel production sites by trucks. Renewable Diesel Production and Stock Canada is expected to have significant growth in renewable diesel production capacity, with new facilities planned in Alberta, British Columbia, Quebec, and Newfoundland and Labrador (Government of Canada, 2023c). The current capacity for renewable diesel production is around 990 million liters per year, though the actual operational capacity remains unclear (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2023; Voegele, 2023). Production capacity is expected to increase to 4.07 billion liters per year by 2027 (Government of Canada, 2023c), representing a growth rate of approximately 311%, thereby enhancing the domestic stock of renewable diesel. 83 The renewable diesel production method is crucial to overall fuel productivity. Current commercial plants use the hydrotreating method, which involves reacting the feedstock with hydrogen under elevated temperatures and pressures to produce renewable diesel (Gerveni et al., 2023). The domestic stock of renewable diesel is influenced by global trade and storage conditions. Although all of the renewable diesel consumed in Canada was imported from the U.S. before 2023, the volume of domestically produced renewable diesel is expected to increase as local production sites start operation (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2023). This growth in domestic production is also expected to boost export capacity, which will impact the overall renewable diesel stock. While there is limited information regarding renewable diesel storage in Canada, in the U.S., it is stored under the same regulations as conventional fuels like diesel, kerosene, and blends. These regulations require fuels to be stored in a UL Listed tank with secondary containment to maintain fuel quality (Western Global, n.d.). Renewable Diesel Distribution and Demand to a Feedback Loop The renewable diesel stock is then managed by transportation and distribution networks, ensuring that the produced renewable diesel is efficiently delivered to the domestic end users. Companies like 4Ruel, a renewable fuel provider in Canada, use the same infrastructure as conventional diesel (4Refuel, n.d.), which increase the transportation efficiency. Renewable diesel demand represents the total quantity desired by all consumers in the market. In terms of the price, as an example, U.S. wholesale prices in 2020 show renewable diesel priced around $1.50 per liter, making it approximately 150% more expensive than conventional diesel and 50% to 88% more costly than biodiesel. (Saddler et al., 2023). This 84 demonstrates that renewable diesel holds the highest premium among these fuels. From 2011 to 2020, renewable diesel’s price saw a reduction of around 50% (Saddler et al., 2023), likely due to increased production capacity and policy support. Although biodiesel prices also dropped by about 33% over this period, renewable diesel remains significantly more costly, which is a crucial consideration for sectors sensitive to fuel costs. As businesses price renewable diesel and promote its purchase, consumer demand is fulfilled (Ahmad & Zhang, 2020). Using a similar calculation for annual biodiesel consumption, if the entire Canadian fleet were to use 100% renewable diesel, the estimated annual consumption would range from approximately 1.58 billion to 3.69 billion liters (Government Of Canada, 2021). This demand is within the expected capacity of Canadian renewable diesel production in the future (Government of Canada, 2023c). As overall renewable diesel demand in Canada increases, it subsequently raises the demand for yellow grease, tallow, and waste cooking oil and animal fat feedstocks used in renewable diesel production, resulting in a feedback loop (Foo et al., 2022; Yasinski, 2022) 85 Figure 4-7 Core Loop of the Renewable Diesel Supply Chain (See Section 3.2.3 for Explanation of Symbols Used) 86 4.2.2.2 Renewable Diesel Supply Chain CLD with Pressures Related to Natural Environment Summary Extreme weather conditions, caused by increased climate change, pose significant challenges to the transportation and storage processes within the renewable diesel supply chain, as shown in Figure 4-8. Waste cooking oil, animal fat, yellow grease, tallow, and renewable diesel heavily rely on road and rail transportation, which can easily be disrupted or damaged by severe weather events. While renewable diesel’s compatibility with existing diesel infrastructure allows pipeline transport, this efficiency also introduces risks during flooding events (Cruz & Krausmann, 2013). Storage vulnerabilities are also explored, noting that extreme weather can impact renewable diesel stability, potentially affecting fuel quality and supply availability during adverse conditions (Cornell, 2024). Impact of Extreme Weather Conditions on Transportation and Storage Increased climate change leads to more frequent and severe extreme weather conditions, which could significantly disrupt the transportation of waste cooking oil and animal fat, yellow grease, tallow, and renewable diesel distribution, similar with biodiesel. However, since the collection and transportation of waste cooking oil and fat, as well as the transportation of yellow grease and renewable diesel, primarily rely on trucks, such disruptions on road can lead to potential raw material and fuel supply shortages. Renewable diesel, compatible with existing diesel infrastructure, can be transported through pipelines, while biodiesel, particularly higher blends, generally cannot. Metals commonly used in pipelines, like brass and copper, react with biodiesel and accelerate oxidation, 87 while rubber components degrade in contact with B100, requiring frequent replacement (Gangwar & Sharma, 2016). As a result, biodiesel transport relies on trucks or rail. This pipeline compatibility gives renewable diesel an edge in distribution efficiency, though pipelines remain vulnerable to flooding risks. High water speeds during floods can erode soil, exposing pipelines and increasing rupture risks, as seen in 1994 when severe flooding near Houston caused multiple pipeline breaks and spills (Cruz & Krausmann, 2013). In contrast, biodiesel’s truck or rail reliance limits flood-related risks to access disruptions, which may be less catastrophic than pipeline ruptures. Thus, while renewable diesel’s pipeline compatibility enhances supply efficiency, it also introduces flood-related vulnerabilities requiring resilience measures. Additionally, for renewable diesel storage, it is similar to conventional diesel in that it should be stored in a dry environment and protected from extreme temperatures. In Canada, specific regulations oversee storage tank systems for petroleum products, helping to protect diesel from leakage and corrosion (Government of Canada, 2005). Although no major incidents have been recorded, extreme weather conditions causing fluctuations in temperature and humidity may affect the stability and composition of fuel by increasing water contamination, microbial growth, and sludge formation (Cornell, 2024). If renewable diesel is not stored properly, these factors could lower its quality, thereby reducing its availability for consumption and highlighting vulnerabilities in fuel storage during extreme weather events. 88 Figure 4-8 Renewable diesel CLD with Pressures under Natural Environment Category (See Section 3.2.3 for Explanation of Symbols Used) 89 4.2.2.3 Renewable Diesel Supply Chain CLD with Pressures Related to Human and Social Environment Summary Pressures related to the human and social environment, such as population growth, skilled labor, and public acceptance, can significantly impact the renewable diesel supply chain, as shown in Figure 4-9. An increasing population in Canada boosts food consumption, generating more waste cooking oil and animal fat for renewable diesel production. Greater awareness of waste recycling strengthens recycling systems, while urbanization provides more opportunities to train skilled workers, supporting supply chain expansion. Public acceptance also influences fuel demand, creating opportunities for renewable diesel to replace conventional diesel. The detailed aspects of population growth, skilled worker opportunities, and public acceptance will not be discussed again here. Impact of Increased Food Needs and Recycling Awareness on Waste Cooking Oil and Fat Collection The growing population in Canada has contributed to increased food consumption and, consequently, a greater volume of waste cooking oil and animal fat (Abdulla et al., 2013). Despite generating over 50 million tonnes of food waste each year, Canadians could avoid 60% of this waste through better planning and awareness (Blair, 2024). Education campaigns aim to increase public knowledge about proper recycling practices for waste cooking oil. For residential recycling, individuals are encouraged to drop off waste oil at recycling centers, while commercial entities are advised to contract with waste recycling services for regular collection (Wallace et al., 2017). These practices help reduce improper disposal of waste cooking oil. 90 However, compared to commercial sources such as restaurants and slaughterhouses, residential recycling is less efficient. Households produce smaller amounts of waste oil, which are often mixed with other waste and not always collected consistently (Wallace et al., 2017), making it more challenging to recycle and requiring additional processing. 91 Figure 4-9 Renewable diesel CLD with Pressures under Human and Social Environment Category (See Section 3.2.3 for Explanation of Symbols Used) 92 4.2.2.4 Renewable Diesel Supply Chain CLD with Pressures Related to Production Technology and Infrastructure Summary Production technology and infrastructure are essential for maintaining an efficient and consistent supply of renewable diesel, as shown in Figure 4-10. Since renewable diesel and its feedstocks heavily rely on transportation networks for collection and delivery, a well-developed transportation system is crucial for the development and sustainability of the renewable diesel supply chain (H. Zhang et al., 2014). Additionally, advancements in technology can significantly increase productivity, both in feedstock processing and fuel production (Mannu et al., 2020; Collett et al., 2019). The pressures related to production technology and infrastructure discussed below illustrate how improvements in these areas can influence various processes within the renewable diesel supply chain. Impact of Infrastructure Development on Transportation Infrastructure development is critical to enhancing the transportation and collection processes for waste products, yellow grease, tallow, and renewable diesel. Improved waste product transportation infrastructure enhances the efficiency and volume of waste cooking oil and animal fat collection. For example, Darling Ingredients Canada, a company recycling used cooking oil, would deliver a grease container to fit restaurant needs and their pick-up service is auto scheduled with frequency based on tank capacity and volume of used cooking oil (Darlingii, n.d.). The company also arranges in-house technicians to extract waste cooking oil and then transport to biofuel production sites. 93 A well-developed waste cooking oil and fat collection and transportation system would improve the efficiency and volume of raw material collection and transportation. In the U.S., collaboration among the government, biofuel producers, restaurants, and waste cooking oil recycling companies supports an recycling system (H. Zhang et al., 2014). Restaurants are responsible for paying waste recycling companies to process their kitchen waste. To obtain a permit for waste dumping, the waste cooking oil recycling companies are required to pay the fees as determined by the government. The federal government enforces strict control measures, such as health rating scales for restaurants. Biofuel producers benefit from price subsidies and tax incentives, which further support the system. Similarly, in Iran, Hajjari et al. (2017) proposed a system where local collection agents sign contracts with waste cooking oil producers, place specially designed containers at collection points, and deliver the collected oil to downstream facilities for processing and characterization before transporting it to biofuel plants. This structured approach, as seen in both examples, offers clear benefits by ensuring a reliable, efficient collection process and maintaining the quality of waste cooking oil for renewable diesel production. Such systems streamline the supply chain, reduce contamination risks, and support a consistent supply of high-quality raw materials for biofuel production. Additionally, improved infrastructure for renewable diesel transportation enhances the efficiency of distribution networks. Due to its chemical properties, renewable diesel can be transported through the same pipelines used for conventional diesel, which increases transport efficiency and reliability (Natural Resources Canada, 2012a). However, it should be noted that no diesel pipelines directly serve marine ports in Canada, meaning that transportation to end- 94 users still relies on road and ship transport. Utilizing existing transportation networks reduces logistical challenges and supports the scalability of renewable diesel distribution. Impact of Technology Development on Raw Material Processing and Renewable Diesel Production Advances in rendering technology can improve the efficiency and output of the waste cooking oil and animal fat rendering process. As described by Mannu et al. (2020), advanced physical treatments of waste cooking oil can enhance the quality of rendered oil and improve processing efficiency. For example, membrane technology, acting as a semipermeable barrier, allows the passage of desired components while retaining others (Mannu et al., 2020). A PVDF-based membrane can sequester over 98% of phospholipids, providing excellent resistance to fouling during the degumming process and maintaining high permeate fluxes (Mannu et al., 2020). However, the commercial barrier to using this technology lies in finding materials that can optimize permeate flow rates (Mannu et al., 2020). Similarly, developments in renewable diesel production technology can significantly enhance productivity. Technologies like biological sugar upgrading and hydrothermal processing have been explored to improve renewable diesel production (U.S. Department of Energy, n.d.). A hybrid approach, integrating bioconversion and hydrothermal liquefaction, has shown the potential to produce roughly twice as much distillate fuel blendstock compared to current biorefinery designs (Collett et al., 2019). However, these advanced technologies face economic challenges to commercialization. For example, biological sugar upgrading requires butyric acid, which is petroleum-based and requires extra costs(Linger, 2021). 95 With growing demand for renewable diesel and increasing government financial support, these advancements have the potential to increase yields, reduce production costs, and boost the efficiency of converting raw materials into renewable diesel, ultimately expanding production capacity. 96 Figure 4-10 Renewable diesel CLD with Pressures under Production Technology and Infrastructure Category (See Section 3.2.3 for Explanation of Symbols Used) 97 4.2.2.5 Renewable Diesel Supply Chain CLD with Pressures Related to Domestic and Global Markets Similar to the biodiesel supply chain pressures from domestic and global markets, the overall demand and supply of renewable diesel in Canada are impacted by both internal and external markets, as shown in Figure 4-11. To avoid redundancy, the mechanisms of the renewable diesel market are not discussed here. From International Waste Cooking Oil and Animal Fat Collection to International Waste Cooking Oil and Animal Fat Stock International supply chain of renewable diesel begins with the collection and storage of waste oil and animal fat for further processing or export. The current global production of waste cooking oil is approximately 15 million tons per year, which corresponds to 20%–32% of total edible oil consumption (De Feo et al., 2023). According to estimates from ICCT (2023), China and India have the largest potential for waste cooking oil collection and export them to other countries. The global stock of waste cooking oil and animal fat affects domestic exports and imports through price fluctuations. With global supplies of waste cooking oil projected to more than double by 2030, demand in U.S. and EU markets is also expected to grow (Pandey & Kondalamahanty, 2023). This demand has already driven increased exports from Asian countries. If supplies from Asia continue to grow while domestic availability remains limited, Canada may rely more on imports to meet its renewable diesel production needs (Pandey & Kondalamahanty, 2023). Although specific data on Canada’s imports of these materials is 98 lacking, the expansion of domestic renewable diesel facilities will likely increase demand for waste cooking oil. From International Waste Cooking Oil and Animal Fat Stock to International Yellow Grease and Tallow Stock International yellow grease and tallow stock can influence the demand for domestic exports and imports, affecting the availability of these products for renewable diesel production in Canada. For example, the U.S.'s increasing demand for low-carbon feedstocks made it a net importer of tallow in 2020 (Downing, 2022), putting pressure on global stock and potentially limiting imports to countries like Canada. The U.S. is the primary destination for Canadian tallow exports, accounting for 98% of total exports (IndexBox Inc, 2024). From 2013 to 2023, the average annual growth rate of Canadian tallow exports to the U.S. was 13.3% (IndexBox Inc, 2024), driven by the U.S. renewable diesel industry's demand. This growing demand has increased export prices, encouraging domestic exports of raw materials to the U.S., which in turn limits their availability for renewable diesel production within Canada. From International Yellow Grease and Tallow Stock to International Renewable Diesel Stock An increase in international yellow grease and tallow stock boosts global renewable diesel production. For example, in 2022, yellow grease and tallow were two of the main feedstocks for renewable diesel production in the U.S., playing a crucial role in supporting its renewable diesel production industry (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2024e). As a result, global renewable diesel production reached 2.61 billion gallons in 2021 and is projected to reach 7.45 billion gallons per year by 2027 (BIC Alliance, 2022). 99 The international renewable diesel supply affects Canada’s stock, pricing, and import patterns. Until 2023, all domestic renewable diesel used was imported (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2023). When global stocks are low, rising prices may drive Canada to increase exports, potentially reducing its domestic stock. At the same time, higher prices could limit Canada’s ability to secure affordable imports to meet local demand. Conversely, when international stocks are sufficient, stable prices make it easier for Canada to import renewable diesel and maintain steady supply levels. Expanding domestic production could allow Canada to rely more on local production, stabilizing stock and prices by reducing dependence on global imports and focusing on local feedstocks. From International Renewable Diesel Stock to International Waste Cooking Oil and Animal Fat Collection (Feedback Loop) International renewable diesel stock is consumed by end-users worldwide. Global consumption of renewable diesel rose to 2.70 billion gallons in 2021 and is expected to reach 6.89 billion gallons by 2027 (BIC Alliance, 2022). This growing consumption drives international demand for renewable diesel, creating a cascading effect on the demand for yellow grease and tallow. As the demand for yellow grease and tallow increases, the demand for raw materials like waste oil and animal fat is expected to grow. In response, the international waste recycling industry is expected to growth. For example, China, Indonesia, and Malaysia increased their collection of waste cooking oil to approximately 4 million tonnes in 2023 due to rising demand (European Federation for Transport and Environment, 2024). However, future export availability from these countries remains uncertain. With Canada’s renewable fuel sectors likely to expand, they may prioritize keeping these resources for 100 domestic use, potentially limiting exports. This shift could impact global renewable diesel production, pressuring the international recycling industry to expand further to meet raw material needs. Ultimately, growing domestic consumption in these key countries could tighten global feedstock supplies, influencing both availability and prices for importing nations. This underscores the need to increase domestic feedstock collection to support renewable diesel production. Domestic Renewable Diesel Market Renewable diesel’s compatibility with existing infrastructure and its use in vessels without modifications has increased interest from the transportation sector, leading to competition for fuel supply. Similar to the biodiesel market, the domestic marine sector may face challenges in competing with other end-users as the overall demand for low-carbon fuels in the transportation sector grows. This competition could drive up renewable diesel prices and create supply challenges for marine operators, particularly those with limited budgets for low-carbon fuel transitions. 101 Figure 4-11 Renewable diesel CLD with Pressures under Domestic and Global Markets Category (See Section 3.2.3 for Explanation of Symbols Used) 102 4.2.2.6 Renewable Diesel Supply Chain CLD with Pressures Related to Policy and Regulatory Framework Summary As shown in Figure 4-12, since there are no specific domestic or international policies and regulations for renewable diesel, it shares similar causal relationships with biodiesel, with differences in feedstock-related processes. Following the same pattern as the biodiesel CLD, only fuel-related policies will be discussed in this section. Policies and regulatory frameworks related to renewable diesel feedstocks are provided in 1.1.1.1.1Appendix A 103 Figure 4-12 Renewable diesel CLD with Pressures under Policy and Regulatory Framework Category (See Section 3.2.3 for Explanation of Symbols Used) 104 4.2.3 Strategy Mapping Analysis 4.2.3.1 Reinforcing Loop Each CLD in this research contains two reinforcing loops: a domestic supply chain loop and an international supply chain loop for biofuels. The reinforcing loops for biodiesel CLD are shown in Figure 4-13 and Figure 4-14, while those for the renewable diesel CLD are depicted in Figure 4-15 and Figure 4-16. In each reinforcing loop, each supply chain process leads to the increase of the subsequent process, resulting in an overall increase in the biofuel supply chain. Together, these domestic and international loops form an interconnected system where each process amplifies the next, leading to a cumulative increase in biofuel supply. This integrated structure means that changes in one loop have cascading effects across the entire supply chain. For example, growth in the international loop can boost trade volume, which, in turn, strengthens the domestic loop by increasing both imports and exports. Without any changes or disruptions, biofuel production and demand will continue to grow, suggesting a promising future for biofuel expansion in Canada. However, this reinforcing structure also introduces vulnerabilities. Any disruptions in the loops, could significantly impact the entire biofuel supply chain. For example, adverse weather can reduce crop yields, limiting the supply of raw materials and decreasing biodiesel stocks, which ultimately disrupts the availability of biofuel for consumption. Recognizing the interconnected nature of these loops is essential for developing resilient strategies that support biofuel expansion in Canada. 105 Figure 4-13 Biodiesel Reinforcing Loop – Domestic Supply Chain Figure 4-14 Biodiesel Reinforcing Loop – International Supply Chain 106 Figure 4-15 Renewable Diesel Reinforcing Loop – Domestic Supply Chain Figure 4-16 Renewable Diesel Reinforcing Loop – International Supply Chain 107 4.2.3.2 Top Potency Nodes Table 4-2 provides a summary of the top five potency nodes for both the biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chains, with explanations detailing why each node holds significant influence within its respective system. In the biodiesel supply chain, the potency nodes center on crop-based processes, such as vegetable oil demand and oil crop production stages, which are essential for maintaining a stable supply of feedstock. In the renewable diesel supply chain, potency nodes focus on waste-based feedstock processes, including the demand and collection of yellow grease and waste cooking oils, as well as the logistics needed to transport these materials to processing sites. The summary in Table 4-2 also highlight key differences. Firstly, feedstock transportation is a top potency node in the renewable diesel CLD but not in the biodiesel CLD. The differences can be attributed to the different feedstock sourcing methods. For renewable diesel, waste cooking oils and animal fats are sourced from various locations, such as restaurants, slaughterhouses, and food processing plants, making the collection of these raw materials a crucial step. The diverse sources of feedstock also complicate logistics systems, as the availability of waste cooking oil and animal fats is less predictable than the oil crops, which are typically grown on large, centralized farms. Due to the relatively developed agricultural transportation system in Canada (Gray, 2020), feedstock transportation has become a less critical step in the biodiesel supply chain. In contrast, for renewable diesel, an efficient transportation system is necessary to ensure that sufficient quantities of feedstock arrive at production sites to meet demand. 108 Table 4-2 Top Five Potency Nodes Biodiesel CLD Renewable diesel CLD Explanation Domestic-Vegetable oil demand Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow demand For biodiesel, vegetable oil demand drives agricultural production for oil crops and impact the availability of oilseeds. For renewable diesel, yellow grease and tallow demand controls the availability of waste-based feedstock, impacting biofuel production capacity. Domestic- Feedstock demand for oil crops Domestic- Waste cooking oil and animal fat demand These nodes indicate primary feedstock demand. In the biodiesel chain, oil crop demand drives large-scale farming, while in renewable diesel, waste oil and fat demand influences waste collection efforts, reflecting how feedstock demand directs biofuel supply efforts. Domestic- Oil crop growing Domestic- Waste cooking oil and animal fat collection Oil crop growing marks the starting point of biodiesel production, determining supply volume. For renewable diesel, waste oil and fat collection is the first step, where sufficient collection is critical given the scattered, less predictable sources of waste oil from various locations. 109 Biodiesel CLD Renewable diesel CLD Explanation Domestic- Oil crop harvesting Domestic- Waste cooking oil and animal fat stock Timely harvesting is crucial to maintain the good quantity and quality of oilseeds, meeting production needs for biodiesel. Waste oil and fat stock serves a similar role in renewable diesel, as adequate stock mitigates fluctuations in waste feedstock availability, stabilizing production. Domestic- Oil crop stock Domestic- Waste cooking oil and animal fat transport to rendering site Sufficient oil crop stock helps to reduce price fluctuations and ensures a consistent supply of raw materials. In renewable diesel, efficient transport to rendering sites is vital due to the decentralized nature of waste oil sources, ensuring timely delivery to maintain production flow. 4.2.3.3 Betweenness Centrality Table 4-3, with explanations included, identifies the top five betweenness centrality nodes in the biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chains. These explanations clarify why these nodes act as bridge nodes or connectors within each system, facilitating critical communication and interaction between supply chain processes. In both supply chains, the top-centrality nodes primarily include fuel stock, transportation and distribution, consumption by end users, and raw material stock. These nodes are essential for system stability: they ensure that raw materials are available, transportation networks are effective, and end-user demands are met. For example, 110 disruptions in fuel stock or transportation could significantly impact the ability to deliver fuel to marine operators, while variations in raw material availability could affect production continuity. When comparing the different nodes between the two CLDs, the renewable diesel demand by end users shows a slightly stronger signal than the biodiesel demand by end users. It indicates that changes in end-user demand for renewable diesel can have more significant effects on the entire supply chain than those in the biodiesel supply chain. One potential reason is that waste cooking oil and animal fat have fewer alternative uses than vegetable oils, so strong end-user demand can directly influence the raw material supply for renewable diesel. Another reason is that the drop-in fuel nature of renewable diesel allows it to use existing infrastructure and transportation networks so that the end-user demand can be delivered quicker throughout the entire supply chain compared to biodiesel. Another difference is that the biodiesel supply chain is more influenced by the availability of raw material stocks. As discussed in Section 2.1.1, the production method for biodiesel, being suitable for decentralized facilities, can enhance supply chain resilience by reducing dependency on large-scale facilities compared to renewable diesel. However, smaller facilities are more vulnerable to feedstock availability and quality issues, and disruptions in the supply, such as poor oil crop growing or harvesting conditions, can have a more significant impact on biodiesel production and, as a result, on the entire supply chain. Additionally, because oil crops are also demanded for increased food production, the demand for biodiesel has a less direct influence on the entire supply chain compared to the central position of raw material stocks. 111 Table 4-3 Top Five Betweenness Centrality Nodes Biodiesel CLD Renewable diesel CLD Explanation Domestic-Biodiesel stock Domestic- Renewable diesel stock These nodes have the highest betweenness centrality, indicating their central role in overall fuel availability. They connect key processes such as production, storage, trade, and distribution, influencing the entire supply chain’s stability and capacity to meet demand. Domestic-Biodiesel transportation & distribution Domestic- Renewable diesel transportation & distribution With the second-highest betweenness centrality, these nodes highlight the importance of efficient logistics in delivering fuel to end users. Disruptions here can prevent fuel from reaching the market, affecting overall supply chain performance. Domestic-Biodiesel consumed by marine operators Domestic- Renewable diesel consumed by marine operators As the primary end users in this analysis, marine operators’ fuel consumption significantly influences the supply chain. Their demand levels are central to production and distribution planning, making this node crucial in both CLDs. 112 Biodiesel CLD Renewable diesel CLD Explanation Domestic-Vegetable oil stock Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow stock These raw material stocks are critical for consistent fuel production. Any fluctuations in availability can disrupt production and create cascading effects throughout the supply chain, reflecting their importance. Domestic- Oil crop stock Domestic- Renewable diesel demanded by marine operators Oil crop stock for biodiesel and end-user demand for renewable diesel hold key positions. Oil crop stock directly impacts biodiesel production, while renewable diesel demand drives the renewable supply chain, affecting feedstock sourcing, production, and logistics. 4.2.3.4 Insights from Strategy Mapping Analysis The strategy mapping analysis highlights the system dynamics within the biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chains. By detecting reinforcing loops, the analysis found that the international and domestic markets are deeply connected. As fuel demand grows, both domestic and international supply chains face increased pressures on fundamental supply chain processes, and any changes or disruptions within these processes could introduce vulnerabilities to the entire supply chain. By identifying top potency nodes, the analysis shows that processes related to feedstock supply play a significant role in biofuel supply chains. Efficient feedstock transportation appears to be a more crucial process for renewable diesel than for biodiesel due to 113 the unique feedstock sourcing methods. In the third step, betweenness centrality reveals the central connectors within the entire biofuel supply chain. The end-user demand for renewable diesel appears to be more critical for connecting the overall renewable diesel supply chain, whereas the biodiesel supply chain is more influenced by raw material availability. The analysis of biodiesel and renewable diesel CLDs provides an in-depth understanding of biofuel supply chain vulnerabilities, which will be the primary focus of the upcoming case studies to reveal specific supply chain vulnerabilities for each marine operator. 4.2.3.5 Sensitivity Tests and Validation for Strategy Mapping Analysis I conducted a sensitivity test to assess the robustness of the strategy mapping analysis results, which remained consistent with the original findings. First, given that the two reinforcing loops—the domestic and international supply chain loops—are foundational to the supply chain model, these loops were kept as constant elements throughout the analysis. Next, to evaluate potency and betweenness centrality, I revisited the underlying theory: potency nodes are those with the most outgoing links, while betweenness centrality measures how often a node can interrupt the shortest paths between others. Since all links in the CLDs are supported by evidence, I added new links to test robustness. Recognizing climate change as a critical driver of low-carbon fuel adaptation, its direct impacts on temperature, extreme weather, feedstock production, and transportation processes were examined. Additional indirect links, including those related to climate-resilient crop development and the expansion of urbanization (Castells-Quintana et al., 2021; George & Kaffka, 2017). The stability of potency and betweenness centrality results following these modifications demonstrated the robustness of the model, as the outcomes remained consistent despite the introduction of additional factors. 114 Triangulation, a qualitative research strategy to validate findings through convergence from multiple data sources (Carter et al., 2014), further confirmed the robustness of critical supply chain processes. For the top potency results, insights from expert interviews in 4.3 Case Study were used to validate findings from the map. They indicated that increased feedstock demand drives up oil crop prices, incentivizing greater production. This trend highlights the high potency of nodes related to domestic feedstock demand, production, and stock, reflecting their significant influence on biofuel production capacity. Document reviews provided additional support, indicating that limited domestic feedstock availability—such as waste oil and animal fat—necessitates imports to meet production requirements (ICCT, 2023). This finding emphasizes the critical role of nodes like domestic waste oil demand, collection, and stock in sustaining supply chain stability. Regarding betweenness centrality, for example, interview insights indicated that limited biofuel stocks increase import demand from countries like the U.S. to maintain a consistent supply in Canada, demonstrating the bridging role of biofuel stock. Document reviews, particularly for remote regions, highlighted that transportation disruptions due to severe weather events can significantly impact supply consistency, reflecting the critical importance of transportation processes within the supply chains (The Arctic Institute, 2024). Therefore, the triangulation test confirms that the identified nodes are integral to maintaining stability in the biofuel supply chain. 4.3 Case Study Building on insights from the strategy mapping analysis, which identified vulnerabilities in biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chains, I conduct four regional case studies to assess potential vulnerabilities in the Canadian marine sector. These vulnerabilities, such as feedstock 115 availability, transportation constraints, and regulatory pressures, serve as the foundation for identifying specific regional risks and informing potential mitigation strategies. This assessment applies the developed CLD to real-world contexts, examining how pressures such as environmental factors, market dynamics, and regulatory frameworks affect biofuel supply chain stability and resilience across Canada’s Pacific, Arctic, Atlantic, and Great Lakes regions. Each region has unique characteristics—resource availability, infrastructure, and climate—that present specific challenges and opportunities for maintaining consistent biofuel supply. The case studies focus on two main marine operator groups, government and commercial, whose distinct operational priorities and supply chain concerns shape their interactions within the biofuel supply chain. This section begins by comparing regional biofuel supply chain differences, focusing on critical processes identified through strategy mapping. It then profiles each operator group, summarizing their biofuel trials, operational priorities, and concerns based on expert interviews, personal communication and secondary research. A vulnerability assessment of biodiesel and renewable diesel follows, examining each region from the perspective of these operators. Finally, the section discusses identified vulnerabilities for each group in each region, offering insights into biofuel supply chain vulnerabilities in Canada and suggesting potential solutions to enhance resilience. 4.3.1 Biofuel Supply Chain in Canadian Marine Regions Canada has the world’s longest coastline—over 243,000 km along three oceans, plus 9,500 km along the Great Lakes (Government of Canada, 2024f). The National Marine Conservation Areas System Plan divides Canada’s waters into 29 marine regions, grouped by the Pacific Ocean, Arctic Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, and Great Lakes, as shown in Figure 3-1(Government of Canada, 2024f). Before assessing biofuel supply chain vulnerabilities in 116 these regions, it is essential to understand the current status and short-term developments of biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chains. The previous section’s strategy mapping analysis highlighted key processes affecting fuel supply stability, including interconnected domestic and international chains, feedstock supply, and transportation efficiency. This section provides an overview of these supply chains, focusing on critical processes to support the upcoming assessment. 4.3.1.1 Pacific Ocean Region In the Pacific Ocean region on Canada’s West Coast, the concentrated population, active domestic shipping, and international trade connections create strong growth potential for biofuel supply chains (Transport Canada, 2020). While British Columbia has limited cropland, its proximity to the Canadian Prairies ensures stable access to oil crops and vegetable oils. Population growth, projected to reach 7.9 million by 2046, will drive demand for these resources, potentially limiting raw materials for biodiesel production and creating a balancing challenge between food and fuel needs (Government of British Columbia, 2024). The availability of agricultural land for canola farming and established infrastructure supports biodiesel supply chain growth (Biodiesel Magazine, 2023a; Canola Council of Canada, n.d.-a), though increased biodiesel production may affect food crop land and prices. Although there is no comprehensive waste cooking oil and fat recycling system in British Columbia, local governments and recycling companies have made significant efforts to recycle from households and restaurants (EcoZero, n.d.; Metro Vancouver, 2024). According to local recycling companies, they already have mature infrastructure for the entire waste cooking oil and fat processing system, including collection, transportation, and processing (EcoZero, n.d.; Redux, n.d.), which provides a solid foundation for raw material supply for renewable diesel 117 production in the region. In addition to the local supply of waste cooking oil and fat, the region could potentially build on its established shipping trade with Asia to import raw materials from Asian countries and meet its consistent demand for renewable diesel feedstocks. The region has strong biofuel production, trade and consumption activities. BC is home to Canada’s first standalone renewable diesel facility in Prince George, with a capacity of approximately 45 million gallons per year (Voegele, 2023). While BC has limited biodiesel production capacity, neighboring Alberta has a large-scale biodiesel refinery with a capacity of 15 million gallons per year and plans to open a renewable diesel refinery in 2025 with a capacity of 264 million gallons per year (Canary Biofuels, n.d.; Stephenson, 2024), which can support the region’s biofuel need. These local facilities indicate a strong current biofuel production capacity and further growth in the coming decades. Despite limited import and export data, BC benefits from its proximity to U.S. biofuel facilities in Washington State, including one biodiesel and two renewable diesel plants with capacities of 107 million and 116 million gallons per year, respectively (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2024b, 2024c). These, along with active marine transport routes, ensure consistent trade flows. British Columbia’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard mandates a 4% biofuel blend with diesel, aligning incentives to support regional and cross-border biofuel supply chains. 4.3.1.2 Arctic Ocean Region In the Arctic region, Canada’s northern areas face considerable challenges in maintaining a biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chain due to remoteness, harsh climate, and limited infrastructure. With minimal agricultural land and no local oilseed processing or biofuel production facilities, biofuels must be transported from other Canadian regions or imported (The Government of Northwest Territories, 2022). The extreme climate further complicates biodiesel 118 storage, as low temperatures—ranging from -20°C to -35°C in winter—cause biodiesel to gel, requiring specialized, costly storage infrastructure (The Arctic Institute, 2024). Biodiesel has thus been largely avoided in the Northwest Territories, as it is impractical for long-term storage in such conditions (Saskatchewan Research Council, 2021) Renewable diesel, in contrast, is well-suited for the Arctic due to its drop-in compatibility with existing diesel infrastructure. The Government of Northwest Territories (2022) has shown strong interest in renewable diesel, which was successfully tested in 2023 by the Canadian Coast Guard using a 30% blend on the CCGS Sir Wilfrid Laurier (CCG, 2023a). To meet Arctic demand, Tidewater Renewables in British Columbia is planning to produce 170 million liters annually of Arctic-spec renewable diesel. This type of renewable diesel is essential in these areas as it’s engineered to stay fluid at extremely low temperatures, often down to -40°C or lower. Neste Oil, for example, offers Arctic-grade renewable diesel in northern Finland, which remains stable in temperatures as low as -44°C (Lamberink, 2024). The northern renewable diesel supply faces both limitations and emerging opportunities. Northern communities and industrial operations rely heavily on seasonal roads, which are vulnerable to climate change impacts like permafrost thaw, leading to degradation and road collapse (Canadian Climate Institute, 2022),. Without adaptation, such damage is projected to continue, impacting supply chain reliability. However, as Arctic sea ice recedes, extended navigation seasons and new marine routes offer potential for more consistent biofuel deliveries by ship, helping support the region’s renewable diesel supply (Arctic Council, 2021). A combined approach—leveraging marine routes where possible and investing in resilient road infrastructure—would be most effective in supporting a stable biofuel supply chain for the Arctic. 119 Policy support for low-carbon fuels further encourages biofuel implementation in this region. The Minister of Transport announced a domestic ban on the use and carriage of heavy fuel oil in the Arctic, effective July 1, 2024 (Transport Canada, 2024). While the ban will be implemented through an Interim Order while the regulations are being amended, it shows a positive trend towards low-carbon fuel utilization in the Canadian Arctic. 4.3.1.3 Atlantic Ocean Region In the Atlantic Ocean region, which includes Canada's East Coast provinces, such as Newfoundland and Labrador, Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and Prince Edward Island, the biofuel supply chain is well-established and experiencing strong growth due to the region's active domestic and international shipping activities (Atlantica Centre for Energy, 2024; Braya Renewable Fuels, n.d.). However, due to a lack of local feedstock and biofuel production facilities, biofuel supply in this region primarily comes from other regions of Canada and imports (Atlantica Centre for Energy, 2024). The Atlantic region does not currently have biodiesel production facilities and has limited agricultural capacity for oilseeds compared to other parts of Canada. This limited supply of biofuel feedstock restricts the potential for local biodiesel production. To address this, the Government of Canada has committed up to $3 million over five years to support the Atlantic Grains Council in overcoming production challenges and enhancing oilseed quality. This initiative, which includes a Yield Enhancement Network and climate adaptation measures, aims to boost local vegetable oil production, potentially paving the way for biodiesel production facilities in the future (Government of Canada, 2024e). For now, biodiesel is primarily supplied from Western Canada or imported from countries like the U.S. (Atlantica Centre for Energy, 2024). 120 Renewable diesel is better supported, with a production facility in Newfoundland and Labrador with a capacity of approximately 260 million gallons per year and a corporate system for collecting waste cooking oil and animal fat (Braya Renewable Fuels, n.d.; Darlingii, n.d.), though a comprehensive recycling network has yet to be developed. Local waste processing companies have built systems for handling waste cooking oil, and a more structured recycling network is expected as demand rises (Darlingii, n.d.). With the region’s strong shipping connections, waste cooking oil and fat imports could further support renewable diesel production. The adoption of biodiesel and renewable diesel varies across the region. The Atlantic region’s coastal climate poses challenges for biodiesel use, as cold winter temperatures can affect its performance. For example, in the Atlantic Maritime ecozone, the warmest area in Atlantic Canada, mean winter temperatures range from –8°C to –2°C (Government of Canada, 2019). Given biodiesel's cloud point range of -3°C to -17°C (Xu et al., 2022), biodiesel use faces challenges during the winter months. Renewable diesel, which performs better in cold conditions, offers a more reliable option for year-round fuel use in the region. 4.3.1.4 Great Lakes Region In the Great Lakes region, the biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chains are well-established due to strong transportation infrastructure, extensive agricultural lands, and a robust biofuel and shipping sector. The region's multimodal transport network—including highways, railroads, ports, and waterways—supports efficient biofuel and raw material transport, while serving as a key marine highway between the Atlantic and North American industrial centers (Council of the Great Lakes Region, 2017; ClearSeas, 2023). With ample raw materials and production capacity, the Great Lakes plays a crucial role in Canada’s biofuel supply chain. 121 The region has a relatively strong supply of raw materials for biodiesel and renewable diesel production, supported by its extensive agricultural lands for oil crop cultivation, particularly in southern Ontario. The large canola and soybean production areas, along with well-established vegetable oil processing infrastructure, help meet the raw material demand for biodiesel production. In addition to oil crops, the region also benefits from waste recycling companies and government programs responsible for the collection and processing of waste cooking oil, fat, and grease (City of Hamilton, 2023; Roslin, n.d.). The Great Lakes region, similar to other areas with mature shipping networks, could potentially import waste cooking oil and fat to support the growing demand for renewable diesel feedstocks. Aside from the raw material demand for industrial use, oil crops and vegetable oils are also in higher demand due to the growing population in this region. Ontario’s population reached 15.6 million in 2023 and is expected to rise to 21.7 million, representing a 39% growth over the next 23 years (Government of Ontario, 2024a). Quebec, with a population of around 9 million in 2024, is also projected to grow by 9.6% by 2048 (Statista, 2024c). The growing population will require more vegetable oil for cooking, further increasing the overall demand for oil crops and vegetable oils. Additionally, this population growth is expected to boost the volume of waste cooking oil and fats as food waste products, which will help support the raw material supply for renewable diesel. The region has strong local production capacity for biodiesel and renewable diesel, and proximity to U.S. biodiesel facilities expands import options. Over 20 U.S. biodiesel plants produce around 800 million gallons annually (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2024b), while renewable diesel imports benefit from nearby U.S. facilities with a combined capacity of 159 million gallons chain (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2024c). Local projects, such 122 as Quebec’s Varennes Carbon Recycling plant (34 million gallons annually), will further enhance regional supply (Great Lakes St. Lawrence Governors and Premiers, 2022). Policy support in the region boosts biofuel market growth, with mandates that exceed federal requirements. Ontario requires biofuel blends of 10% in gasoline rising to 15% by 2030, and 4% in diesel (Navius Research, 2023). Quebec has similar targets, aiming for 10% low-carbon content in gasoline by 2023, increasing to 15% by 2030, and diesel blends rising from 3% to 10% by 2030 (Government of Quebec, 2021). Notably, Quebec’s low-carbon fuel regulation excludes diesel for aircraft, boats, and ships, leaving specific blend requirements for these sectors unclear. Additionally, Quebec’s cap-and-trade system increases the cost of fossil fuel use, further supporting low-carbon fuel production in the region (Navius Research, 2023). Ontario follows the federal carbon pricing backstop, which supports biofuel implementation by exempting biofuels used in blends greater than 10% in gasoline or 5% in diesel from the carbon price (Navius Research, 2023). 4.3.2 Canadian Marine Operators’ Experiences, Priorities and Concerns Regarding Biofuel Supply Chain 4.3.2.1 Government Marine Operators Government marine operators (GMOs) in Canada, such as Canadian Coast Guard, and the Royal Canadian Mounted Police, are responsible for maintaining the safety, security, accessibility of waterways, and protecting the marine environment of the nation’s maritime regions. In line with the Government of Canada’s commitment to reducing GHG emissions, the GMOs have set ambitious net-zero goals for their operations by 2050. As a crucial part of their environmental sustainability strategy, these operators are focusing on alternative fuel energy transformation, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and mitigate climate change. Federal 123 policies and initiatives, such as Canada’s Low-carbon Fuel Procurement Program introduced in 2023, allocate $134.9 million in funding over eight years from 2023 to 2031 to support the purchase of low-carbon fuels for federal air and marine fleets. This program aids the low-carbon fuel transition by covering the high costs of these fuels and funding fuel trials and technology advancements, advancing environmental sustainability goal(Government of Canada, 2024e). The GMOs highlighted in this research are inspired by the CCG, which was selected because it is the major federal- funded marine operator under the Low-carbon Fuel Procurement Program. CCG is a special operating agency within Fisheries and Oceans Canada, that supports Canada’s maritime trade in a safe and efficient manner across all Canadian marine regions. It performs mandated functions in marine communication and traffic management, navigation, icebreaking, and maritime security (CCG, 2023a). As part of its decarbonization strategy, the CCG has multiple trials to test blends of renewable diesel and biodiesel with conventional diesel in their fleets (CCG, 2023a). In one search and rescue fleet, CCGS Caribou Isle, 20% and 100% biodiesel has been successfully tested in 2022 and 2023. CCGS Sir Wilfrid Laurier, a Martha L. Black-class light icebreaker, used a 30% renewable diesel blend in the Arctic in 2023. Personal communication with CCG staff indicates that biodiesel and renewable diesel are two of the near-term alternatives in which CCG has a strong interest. GMOs in Canada face various fuel supply challenges in their daily operations, as highlighted by personal communication and literature reviews. For biodiesel, their concerns center on cold weather performance, long-term storage capacity, and availability, particularly in the Arctic and Atlantic regions, as noted by the CCG staffs. GMOs are interested in renewable diesel because of its similarity to traditional diesel fuel and its ability to perform well in cold weather conditions (CCG, 2023b). Based on personal communication, GMOs already have 124 access to biodiesel in the Pacific and Great Lakes regions. With domestic renewable diesel production beginning in 2023, GMOs are now evaluating the potential of incorporating this domestically produced fuel into their operations When it comes to biofuels in general, GMOs prioritize overall GHG reduction efforts, favor domestically produced biofuels to support local businesses, and closely monitor domestic and international policies and regulations related to climate change mitigation. They have concerns regarding fuel transportation safety, fuel availability, and their ability to meet decarbonization targets (CCG, 2023b). Considering their priorities and concerns, the vulnerabilities of the biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chains were assessed later in this chapter using the framework developed in this study. 4.3.2.2 Commercial Marine Operators Commercial marine operators (CMOs) in Canada are companies responsible for transporting goods and materials through waterways across the country. Driven by regulatory pressures, policy incentives and stakeholder demand for environmental sustainability, these companies have developed various strategies to reduce GHG emissions and mitigate climate change. One of the primary strategies is the transition to low-carbon fuels, making the commercial shipping companies part of the overall demand for alternative fuels in Canada. In this research, CMOs are inspired by companies like Canada Steamship Lines (CSL) and Seaspan, with its diversified subsidiaries, which have been considering biofuels as a low-carbon fuel option and have successfully trialed biofuels in their fleets. Headquartered in Montreal, Canada, CSL is a shipping and handling services provider to customers around the world. CSL emphasizes corporate social responsibility and sustainability, with a primary focus on transitioning to low-carbon fuels as part of their sustainability strategy. 125 CSL began its biodiesel trials in 2019 with a B50 blend, progressing to B80, and by 2020, running two ships on B100 (CSL, 2021). Since 2021, eight CSL vessels have continuously run on B100 for five to eight months per year as part of its Great Lakes biofuel program. The trial, in partnership with Canada Clean Fuels and with the collaboration of Sterling Fuels, used 100% bio-content second-generation biofuel, requiring no modifications to existing ship equipment. In 2024, eight of CSL’s Great Lakes ships will run on biofuel, and the company plans to eventually extend the program across the entire Great Lakes fleet (CSL, 2023). Seaspan, a diversified maritime company, operates multiple segments focused on marine transportation, shipbuilding, and low-carbon fuel solutions. Seaspan Marine provides ship assistance, coastal and deep-sea transportation, and fuel bunkering on Canada’s West Coast, while its sister company, Seaspan Energy, offers low-carbon fuel solutions for ship owners as part of its energy business (Seaspan, n.d.-b, n.d.-a). Seaspan Ferries, which manages a commercial ferry service between Vancouver Island and the Lower Mainland, transitioned all six of its ferries to 100% biodiesel in 2022 (Port of Vancouver, 2022; Seaspan, n.d.-a). Additionally, in 2023, Seaspan Marine trialed renewable diesel in its ship-docking tugboats and piloted biofuels in older towing vessels like the Seaspan Commodore (Seaspan, 2024). Seaspan has expressed a commitment to sustainable operations and continuously improving its environmental performance. Similar to GMOs, CMOs also face fuel supply challenges that vary based on regional differences in Canada. Unlike GMOs, who receive direct funding from the federal government and can bear the higher costs of low-carbon fuels, CMO’s cost-sensitive and profit-driven nature brings different concerns and priorities. According to interviews, biodiesel’s stability during cold-weather storage and transportation is a primary concern. They also noted challenges in 126 renewable diesel supply, citing the limited availability of waste cooking oil in Canada and the risk of fraud in imported supplies. Additionally, when considering biodiesel and renewable diesel as biofuels, they mentioned that commercial operators expressed concerns about the overall costs of low-carbon fuels, the availability of policy incentives for biodiesel, regulatory mandates for fuel blends, and achieving GHG reduction targets. Secondary research also supports these insights, indicating that commercial companies, in pursuit of the IMO's net-zero emission targets, prioritize biofuel affordability and show interest in innovative solutions for alternative fuel adaptation (Seaspan, 2021). 4.3.3 Biodiesel Supply Chain Vulnerabilities Assessment for Marine Operators in Canada Given the regional differences in the biodiesel supply chain across Canadian marine regions, supply chain pressures, structured through CLDs, were identified based on the vulnerable processes specific to each region. These pressures vary across the Pacific Ocean, Arctic Ocean, Atlantic Ocean, and Great Lakes regions, with GMOs and CMOs holding different preferences and concerns regarding the biofuel supply chains. Building on the regional differences in the biofuel supply chain, as well as expert interviews, personal communication and the literature on marine operators' priorities and concerns mentioned earlier, I conduct a detailed analysis of biodiesel supply chain vulnerabilities for marine operators in Canadian. The degree of vulnerability is defined in Table 3-3 with the assessment result shown in Table 4-4. Based on the result, I provide detailed explanation, offering an in-depth understanding of the challenges faced across different marine environments and the potential mitigation recommendations. 127 Table 4-4 Biodiesel Supply Chain Vulnerability Assessment Result Vulnerabilities Pacific & Great Lakes Regions Arctic Ocean Region Atlantic Ocean Region Government Operators Commercial Operators Government Operators Commercial Operators Government Operators Commercial Operators Extreme Weather Events on Domestic Feedstock Availability and Transportation Networks High – Extreme weather events can disrupt feedstock availability and transportation, impacting the domestic produced biodiesel and the associated high cost, concerned by both operators. High - Extreme cold, storms, and weather disruptions heavily impact transport, increasing vulnerability. High - Extreme weather disruptions heavily impact transport, increasing vulnerability. Biodiesel Stability Issues in Storage and Transportation Moderate – Stability issue happens for higher blends but are manageable with active monitoring, storage infrastructure upgrades, and the use of antioxidants. High - Cold climate necessitates strict control over storage and transport conditions to prevent fuel degradation. Moderate - Cold temperatures require monitoring and improved storage, though not as severe as Arctic. 128 Market Fluctuation caused by competitive demand and International Policy Incentives Pressures fuel availability and prices Moderate – Policies like California's Low Carbon Fuel Standard drive feedstock demand, reducing domestic availability. Government operators, with less price sensitivity, can secure supplies more easily. High – Increased demand from international policies may reduce local availability and raise prices, impacting profitability for commercial operators. High – International incentives that increase biodiesel demand can reduce availability and raise costs for Arctic imports, posing supply risks. Moderate – International policies drive up demand, reducing domestic availability and raising costs, but established supply from other regions, and procurement support provide buffer. High – International policies drive up demand, reducing domestic availability and raising costs, significantly impact on CMOs. Emerging Alternative Fuels Low – Biodiesel remains a primary choice for now, though both operators are High– Considering biodiesel’s cold weather High– Considering biodiesel’s cold weather performance issue is 129 Vulnerabilities Pacific & Great Lakes Regions Arctic Ocean Region Atlantic Ocean Region Government Operators Commercial Operators Government Operators Commercial Operators Government Operators Commercial Operators Creating Long-Term Uncertainty monitoring the development of alternative fuels. performance issue is especially critical in this region, fuels with better cold weather performance are likely to replace biodiesel. critical in winter season in this region, fuels with better cold weather performance are likely to replace biodiesel. 130 Pacific Ocean Region & Great Lakes Region According to the comparative regional analysis in Section 4.3.1, the Pacific Ocean and Great Lakes regions share similarities in their sufficient raw material supply, mature transportation networks, established biodiesel production facilities, and strong domestic and international biofuel markets, all of which support a relatively stable biodiesel supply chain. However, key vulnerabilities such as extreme weather events, biodiesel stability in storage, market fluctuations, competition for biodiesel, and the emergence of alternative fuels present challenges for both GMOs and CMOs (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2024; Leung et al., 2006; Navius Research, 2023; IEA, 2020). Extreme weather conditions present high vulnerability for operators, given the increasing frequency and severity of weather-related disruptions, which have significant consequences for feedstock and fuel availability. For instance, human-driven climate change has increased the likelihood of heat waves by 2 to 10 times, which are a primary catalyst for wildfires across Canada (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2024). The 2023 wildfires, fueled by these heat waves, destroyed nearly 15 million hectares of forest and inflicted tens of billions of dollars in damage (Environment and Climate Change Canada, 2024). Such large-scale fires not only disrupt supply chains but also reduce feedstock resources, driving up costs and creating market volatility, showing the critical impact of extreme weather on biofuel production stability. Although small-scale pipelines, such as the Vancouver Aviation fuel pipeline, provide localized support, there is no existing pipeline to ports. The high cost of building pipelines to major ports in presents significant challenges to expanding it into a large-scale transportation 131 network. Road and rail transport are still the primary methods for feedstocks and fuel transportation, highly vulnerable to weather disruptions. Mitigation actions such as increasing local storage capacity for feedstocks and biodiesel directly addresses supply disruptions by reducing reliance on vulnerable transportation routes during extreme weather events. Enhanced monitoring systems for extreme weather can provide early warnings to protect key transportation infrastructure. From a strategic perspective, redundancy in transportation networks (e.g., developing alternative rail, road and pipeline routes) can create buffer capacities, minimizing cascading failures in the supply chain. Biodiesel stability is a moderate concern for both operators during long-term storage and transportation, given the likelihood of degradation will increase with the blend increase and have consequences of operational risks and equipment damage. Research shows that under controlled conditions, pure biodiesel samples stored at lower temperatures (4°C and 20°C) degraded by less than 10% over 52 weeks, whereas samples stored at higher temperatures (40°C) showed nearly 40% degradation, highlighting that high temperatures and air exposure significantly accelerate biodiesel degradation (Leung et al., 2006). Mitigation measures should focus on protecting the critical bridge nodes to maintain supply chain stability. Improving oxidative stability through treatment with antioxidants, such as Tertiary-Butylhydroquinone or Butylated Hydroxytoluene, ensures biodiesel remains stable during storage and transport, preventing degradation-related failures in distribution (E. Christensen & McCormick, 2014). In addition, biodiesel made from high polyunsaturated ester content (e.g., from soybean oil) is less stable than biodiesel with lower polyunsaturated ester content (e.g., from canola oil), so selecting feedstocks with lower polyunsaturated fatty acids can improve stability (E. Christensen & McCormick, 2014). Active monitoring of acid value and 132 peroxide value can detect degradation, while frequent maintenance of storage infrastructure can also reduce degradation risks. Competitive demand is driving up domestic biodiesel demand, reducing availability and increasing costs, posing moderate vulnerability to GMOs and high vulnerability to CMOs. Although current stocks support Canada’s low-carbon fuel demand, GMOs and CMOs worry about biodiesel availability as demand grows. Interviews indicate that competition from other sectors could affect supply; however, vessel-compatible alternatives are limited. For instance, renewable electricity and bioethanol are suitable for road transport (IEA, 2023a), but not for vessels due to low energy density, infrastructure, and safety concerns (Mitu et al., 2018). If biodiesel availability decreases, prices could rise. While other sectors may switch to alternatives, marine operators would bear the additional costs, increasing market fluctuations and creating uncertainty, particularly for commercial operators. Targeted subsidies or tax incentives for the connector node of biodiesel consumed by marine operators could help mitigate cost pressures on marine operators, particularly CMOs, reducing their exposure to price increases and maintaining supply chain stability. International policies, such as California’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard, are also driving up demand for biodiesel and its feedstocks, reducing availability and increasing costs in the domestic market (Navius Research, 2023). While these regions have strong domestic production capacity and active shipping activities connecting to other countries, the influence of international policies introduces stock and price fluctuations for marine operators. This presents a high vulnerability for CMOs, who face profitability challenges when biodiesel costs rise due to international competition. GMOs experience moderate vulnerability, as they face reduced availability but benefit from some buffer through established support from domestic suppliers. 133 Mitigation actions such as pre-estimating fuel demand and establishing subsidies can help stabilize biodiesel prices and mitigate market fluctuations. Interviews on biodiesel supply chain in BC reveal a preference for estimating fuel demand in advance to ease price volatility. Furthermore, targeting key nodes in the supply chain, such as feedstock production, is crucial for long-term stability. Rising demand and prices are encouraging farmers to expand oil crop cultivation, potentially stabilizing biodiesel prices if feedstock supplies remain steady. Subsidies, tax breaks, or strategic reserves could offset market pressures, similar to the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, which stabilize domestic supplies (IEA, 2023a). Canada might consider adopting similar measures to prioritize local supply and counter international price fluctuations. Additionally, Canada could learn from the U.S. approach of strategically managing biodiesel imports to balance supply and demand while leveraging international partnerships through reinforcing effects. For instance, U.S. biodiesel imports doubled from 2022 to 2023, largely sourced from Germany and other European nations where a biodiesel surplus, driven by the EU’s Renewable Energy Directive, has lowered prices (U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2024a). Some operators, like Seaspan Marine, mitigate volatility by sourcing fuel from Seaspan Energy, their sister company (Seaspan, n.d.-a). Leveraging similar partnerships and exploring cost-effective international sources could help Canada build a resilient biodiesel supply chain and reduce vulnerability to global price fluctuations. From interviews, regulatory compliance emerges as another crucial factor, beyond cost, impacting marine operators. In the Pacific Ocean and Great Lakes regions, domestic regulations such as BC’s Low Carbon Fuel Standard and Ontario’s Cleaner Transportation Fuels mandate a 4% low-carbon renewable fuel blend for diesel (Government of British Columbia, 2024b; Government of Ontario, n.d.). Regardless of biodiesel costs, marine operators must comply with 134 this blend requirement, setting a baseline for the biodiesel supply chain in these regions and fostering a large-scale commercial supply chain. As these baseline requirements are expected to increase to meet net-zero targets, the overall supply chain vulnerabilities are anticipated to diminish based on the experience gained from mature supply practices. By focusing on compliance and leveraging regulatory frameworks, the supply chain can better adapt to market fluctuations and external pressures. Emerging low-carbon fuels, such as ammonia, hydrogen, and methanol, could reduce GHG emissions but require substantial investment in production, infrastructure, and vessel upgrades. Biofuels are currently more feasible, though government subsidies could make alternatives competitive. For example, the European Commission’s Carbon Contracts for Differences supports green hydrogen by offering fixed payments to users who cut carbon emissions, factoring in carbon tax savings (Collins, 2022). Canada’s CleanBC Industry Fund and Innovative Clean Energy Fund similarly support emerging energy (Government of British Columbia, 2024a). Although these fuels need time to mature, demand for biodiesel may shift to these alternatives long-term, creating uncertainty in the biodiesel supply chain. GHG reduction efforts, though not a direct supply chain vulnerability, are a significant concern for both operators and drive advancements in biodiesel production and feedstocks to reduce life-cycle GHG emissions. To meet net-zero targets, operators focus on innovative feedstocks, such as forest and wood residues, which offer lower emissions than traditional crops. In British Columbia’s forest-rich Pacific region, CSL has trialed biodiesel from waste plant materials, which eliminates GHG emissions during feedstock production compared to crop-based alternatives (The CSL Group Inc., 2021). Additionally, advances in conversion technologies also help lower production-related emissions. For instance, Mandari & Devarai (2021) found that 135 catalytic supercritical fluids, like CH₃KO and Al₂O₃, can boost biodiesel yields to 96-99%, compared to 72-97% with non-catalytic methods. Additionally, carbon capture, utilization, and storage has shown promise in reducing biofuel GHG emissions, with successful applications in the U.S., such as the Illinois Industrial Carbon Capture Project (IEA, 2020). While costs for these technologies remain a barrier, rising carbon regulations, such as carbon taxes, may encourage wider adoption of these emission-reducing methods. Arctic Ocean Region The Arctic region faces significant challenges in maintaining a reliable biodiesel supply chain due to extreme weather conditions, reliance on imports, and limited local infrastructure. Both GMOs and CMOs encounter high levels of vulnerability across several areas, including transportation and supply chain disruptions due to extreme weather and import reliance, biodiesel stability issue in cold weather and market pressures from global demand and policy incentives (Fox et al., 2023; Government of Canada, 2024h). The details of these vulnerabilities, alongside possible mitigative actions, are provided below. For both government and commercial operators, extreme weather events create a high likelihood and significant impact of transport delays. For example, in Clyde River, Nunavut, during the winter of 2021/22, the community experienced 33 blizzard days—the most since 1978/79—resulting in a state of emergency due to heavy snow accumulation and limited resources (Fox et al., 2023). This situation highlights the vulnerability of Arctic supply chains, where increasing extreme weather events can cause critical transportation disruptions. The Arctic’s dependence on imported biodiesel further compounds this issue, as limited supply routes and potential road disruption make road transport unreliable in winter, with 136 shipping as the preferred method. However, shipping too is affected by seasonal ice and extreme weather and damage to port infrastructure or disruptions in shipping routes can severely impact biodiesel availability (Wärtsilä, 2022). Additionally, while wind and waves are significant risks, the Arctic has particularly scarce maritime infrastructure, leaving local authorities with limited resources and options to respond quickly to incidents (M. Christensen et al., 2022). To address these vulnerabilities, both operators could benefit from expanding storage facilities within the Arctic. It serves as a critical mitigation measure by strengthening key bridge nodes such as biodiesel stock and transportation. Increased storage capacity would create a buffer against delayed shipments, reducing the reliance on vulnerable supply routes and ensuring biodiesel availability during periods of disruption. Enhanced monitoring of extreme weather patterns and trends would further strengthen these bridge nodes by allowing operators to anticipate and prepare for seasonal or unexpected disruptions more effectively. Additionally, as ice coverage continues to decrease, shipping transport conditions will likely improve, requiring less icebreaking and further facilitating biodiesel shipments. The Arctic’s extreme cold climate necessitates strict control over storage and transportation conditions for biodiesel, which poses significant risks of gelling. According to interviews, for both transportation and operational storage, maintaining biodiesel at temperatures above its cloud point is essential to prevent fuel line blockages and equipment failure, especially during long winter periods. This stability concern presents a high vulnerability with high likelihood and high consequence for both operators, though it impacts commercial operators more severely due to the high costs associated with specialized temperature control equipment. To manage this, temperature-controlled transport solutions and fuel monitoring systems are recommended (Nnaemeka & Bibeau, 2018), although these solutions increase operational costs, 137 particularly for commercial operators with limited budgets. Additionally, considering replacement by fuels with better stability in low temperatures, such as renewable diesel, can mitigate this vulnerability. For both operators, the Arctic’s reliance on external biodiesel sources causes high level of vulnerability to global market fluctuations, policy-driven demand increases, and competition from other sectors. This combined market vulnerability is highly consequential for Arctic operators due to the high likelihood of price increases and supply constraints affecting their operations. For government operators, some budget flexibility may ease the cost impacts, but for commercial operators, this vulnerability poses substantial financial risks. To address these pressures, securing long-term procurement contracts and expanding Arctic storage capacity could help offset the effects of price and supply fluctuations. Monitoring international policy changes and fostering strategic partnerships with biodiesel suppliers would further support supply chain resilience through reinforcing effects. Atlantic Ocean Region In the Atlantic region, both government and commercial operators face high vulnerability to extreme weather events, including hurricanes, severe storms, and heavy rainfall. These events frequently disrupt transportation networks and affect the availability of biodiesel feedstocks, leading to potential supply shortages and increased costs (Rapaport et al., 2016, p. 8). For government operators, this vulnerability impacts their ability to maintain consistent fuel supplies for emergency services and critical infrastructure. Commercial operators are equally affected, with extreme weather causing logistical delays, added transportation expenses, and supply chain instability, which directly impact operational efficiency and profitability. 138 Mitigation measures targeting bridge nodes can strengthen the region’s resilience against extreme weather. Expanding biodiesel storage facilities in the Atlantic region provides buffering capacity to ensure supply continuity during disruptions, reducing reliance on vulnerable transportation routes. Pre-positioning biodiesel stocks near critical hubs, combined with enhanced storage infrastructure capable of withstanding extreme weather, can mitigate the cascading effects of supply shortages. According to Section 4.3.1, in the Atlantic region, cold winter temperatures can lead to biodiesel degradation during transportation and storage. For government operators, this issue presents moderate vulnerability due to some budgetary flexibility for infrastructure improvements. However, for commercial operators, the financial impact of temperature-related storage challenges creates additional risks. Implementing temperature monitoring systems and storage upgrades can help reduce biodiesel degradation in winter, making this a moderate but manageable vulnerability. Additionally, transitioning to renewable diesel or other fuels with better cold-weather performance may mitigate operational risks associated with biodiesel use in winter. GMOs experience a moderate vulnerability, while CMOs face high vulnerability to market fluctuations in the Atlantic region due to rising international demand, which can reduce both domestic and import availability of biodiesel and drive up prices, as seen in the Arctic region. While GMOs have procurement support, CMOs are more exposed to potential financial impacts. Additionally, the increasing biodiesel demand across various sectors creates moderate vulnerability for GMOs and high vulnerability for CMOs, as noted in the Pacific Ocean and Great Lakes regions. 139 Mitigation measures targeting potency nodes such as feedstock production and availability could reduce reliance on external supplies and stabilize the biodiesel supply chain in the Atlantic. Developing local biodiesel production could reduce exposure to weather disruptions, import dependency and competitive demand for biodiesel. Research into regional agricultural conditions shows that warming temperatures could expand oil crop cultivation, particularly soybeans, in the Atlantic, providing potential feedstocks for biodiesel (Qian et al., 2023). Additionally, marine oils from the established fishing industry in Newfoundland and Labrador present a viable local feedstock source (Dave, 2014). Local governments, such as the Government of Nova Scotia (n.d.), are exploring opportunities for a future bio-refinery industry in the region. 4.3.4 Renewable Diesel Supply Chain Vulnerabilities Assessment for Marine Operators in Canada The renewable diesel supply chain in Canada shares similar challenges and opportunities with biodiesel supply chains, such as extreme weather events that can potentially disrupt feedstock and fuel transportation networks, market fluctuations that drive up the cost of renewable diesel, and domestic and international policies and regulations on low-carbon fuel adoption and GHG reduction that encouraging the utilization of renewable diesel, as shown in Table 4-5,. These similarities will not be discussed in detail in this section to avoid duplication. However, beyond these similarities, I observe key differences, including feedstock availability, domestic production capacity, price differences, and the ability to share existing transportation networks and diesel equipment, all of which are critical for domestic marine operators. 140 Table 4-5 Renewable Diesel Supply Chain Assessment Result Vulnerabilities Pacific Ocean Region & Great Lakes Region & Atlantic Ocean Region Arctic Ocean Region Government Operator Commercial Operator Government Operator Commercial Operator Challenges in Waste Cooking Oil and Animal Fat Collection Moderate - Limited local collection infrastructure means reliance on imports, though steady urban growth may improve local collection opportunities. High - Insufficient local collection systems increase costs and risks of supply gaps, requiring higher import reliance. N/A - No local capacity for renewable diesel production; complete reliance on imports for renewable diesel supply. Challenges in Waste Cooking Oil and Animal Fat Imports Moderate – Imports could supplement domestic feedstocks, High - High dependency on imports exposes N/A - No local capacity for renewable diesel production; complete reliance on imports for renewable diesel supply. 141 Vulnerabilities Pacific Ocean Region & Great Lakes Region & Atlantic Ocean Region Arctic Ocean Region Government Operator Commercial Operator Government Operator Commercial Operator but concerns about fraud and quality pose risks for maintaining a stable supply chain. operators to supply and cost fluctuations, with fraudulent imports adding additional risk. Supply Chain Disruptions from Import Dependency Moderate - Though imports are essential, established import routes and local production help mitigate disruptions. Moderate – Increased domestic production reduces dependency on imports, benefiting commercial operators by stabilizing prices, though full demand may not yet be met. High - Total dependence on imported renewable diesel introduces high vulnerability to disruptions, associated with cost volatility. 142 Vulnerabilities Pacific Ocean Region & Great Lakes Region & Atlantic Ocean Region Arctic Ocean Region Government Operator Commercial Operator Government Operator Commercial Operator Supply Chain disruption due to Extreme Weather Events affect Transportation Moderate - Extreme weather events pose moderate risks, with established infrastructure providing some resilience. High - Extreme weather events can heavily impact transport routes, disrupting critical supply lines for both operators. High Costs of Renewable Diesel Moderate- Government operators have relatively high-cost tolerance because of the government funds. High - The high price of renewable diesel significantly impacts commercial operators' budgets, making biodiesel a more attractive option when feasible. Moderate - High renewable diesel costs are mitigated somewhat by government support, though prices remain elevated. High - Renewable diesel costs significantly impact commercial operators’ budgets, making its adoption challenging in the Arctic context. 143 Vulnerabilities Pacific Ocean Region & Great Lakes Region & Atlantic Ocean Region Arctic Ocean Region Government Operator Commercial Operator Government Operator Commercial Operator Market Fluctuations Caused by Competitive Demand and International Policy Impact Availability and Price Moderate – Sectoral competition and international demand, driven by policy incentives, raises supply risks, but procurement funds mitigate some impacts. High - Price volatility from fluctuated market can intensify cost and supply risks, heavily affecting commercial operators. Moderate - International policy-driven demand raises supply risks, but government contracts can moderate price impacts. High - Global demand and policy incentives drive up prices, heightening cost and availability concerns for commercial operators. Long-Term Uncertainty due to Emerging Alternatives Low-While renewable diesel is viable in the near term, alternatives like hydrogen may reduce future demand. Low-While renewable diesel is viable in the near term, alternatives like hydrogen may reduce future demand. 144 Pacific Ocean Region & Great Lakes Region & Atlantic Ocean Region The Pacific Ocean, Great Lakes, and Atlantic Ocean regions share similarities in local renewable diesel raw material production capacity, planned domestic renewable diesel production capacity, and mature shipping networks for renewable diesel trade, making them suitable for collective assessment. From the perspectives of marine operators, the challenges and opportunities related to local waste cooking oil and animal fat collection systems, the potential for domestically produced renewable diesel, and the ability to share existing transportation networks and diesel equipment make the renewable diesel supply chain vulnerabilities unique in these regions. Local waste cooking oil and animal fat collection systems face limitations in each of these regions. GMOs face a moderate vulnerability due to limited local collection infrastructure, leading to some reliance on imports. Commercial operators have a high vulnerability due to insufficient local collection systems, which increases costs and raises the risk of supply gaps. For example, in densely populated cities like Vancouver and Toronto, waste recycling companies handle the collection and processing of waste cooking oil and fat (Darlingii, n.d.; EcoZero, n.d.). Local governments have also established recycling programs for household waste cooking oil and fat (Metro Vancouver, 2024; Toronto Environmental Alliance, n.d.). However, in smaller cities with lower population densities, waste recycling systems are still developing, resulting in limited local collection infrastructure. To mitigate challenges in waste cooking oil collection, lessons can be drawn from the U.S. waste recycling system (H. Zhang et al., 2014), Implementing regulations and offering incentives for local waste management companies and biofuel facilities can boost the collection 145 of domestically sourced feedstocks, reducing dependency on imports and helping to stabilize costs, which is particularly beneficial for commercial operators sensitive to price fluctuations. These actions address vulnerabilities tied to the top potency node of feedstock collection, as a comprehensive collection system amplifies the reinforcing effects of the overall supply chain. Furthermore, a study demonstrated that making recyclable waste collection mandatory led to a significant rise in waste cooking oil gathered from residential and commercial sectors in Taiwan, China, increasing from 1,599 tonnes in 2015 to 12,591 tonnes in 2017, a 687% increase (Tsai, 2019). As estimated previously in Section 4.2.2.1 renewable diesel CLD, Canada’s potential for used cooking oil and animal fat at approximately 405 million gallons annually (Kristiana et al., 2022; Government of Canada, 2023). Establishing a comprehensive recycling system for waste cooking oil and animal fat could help Canada reducing waste-based feedstock supply risks by strengthening the key drivers such as feedstock stock and reducing import reliance. Importing waste cooking oil and animal fat supplements limited domestic supplies but brings moderate vulnerability for government operators and high vulnerability for commercial operators. While waste oil fraud issue concerned by both operators, commercial operators face higher vulnerability than government operator due to the raising costs of raw material supply volatility. For instance, a surge in renewable diesel demand shifted the U.S. from a net exporter to a net importer of used cooking oil by 2022, with imports increasing by 240% from 2022 to 2023 (Khan, 2024). However, fraudulent imports, particularly from countries with less rigorous tracking of used cooking oil production, pose quality and reliability risks (Khan, 2024). Establishing systematic local waste recycling system to increase domestically availability of raw materials, strengthening import agreements with trusted suppliers and enhancing quality 146 verification processes for imports would reduce fraud risks and help commercial operators manage costs and supply consistency. These actions directly mitigate vulnerabilities associated with domestic waste oil and animal fat stock, helping to strengthen the overall reinforcing effects in the renewable diesel supply chain system. Compared to biodiesel, renewable diesel has higher costs which posts high vulnerability to commercial operators and moderate vulnerability to government operators. As mentioned in Section 4.2.2.1 the biodiesel CLD description section, U.S. price data from 2011-2020 highlights that renewable diesel consistently incurs higher wholesale costs than biodiesel and conventional diesel, with renewable diesel often carrying a 20-30% price premium (Saddler et al., 2023). This financial burden discourages adoption among commercial operators, who may opt for biodiesel if operationally feasible to avoid these additional costs. Expanding domestic production capacity could potentially stabilize costs by enhancing the bridge node as domestic renewable diesel stock, distribution and consumption, which directly link renewable diesel supply to the end user market. Introducing price-stabilizing incentives, like the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, could further support affordable access to renewable diesel in these regions. Arctic Ocean Region The lack of raw materials, poor transportation networks, and the absence of planned renewable diesel production facilities in the Arctic Ocean region make local renewable diesel production unlikely. Similar to the biodiesel supply chain in the Arctic Ocean region, the renewable diesel supply is expected to rely on imports from other Canadian regions and other countries. Vulnerabilities such as potential transportation disruptions and reliance on imports, which challenge the consistency of fuel supply, will not be discussed again here. Additionally, 147 opportunities related to sharing transportation networks and diesel equipment and challenges related to the high cost, as discussed in the previous section, will not be revisited. Renewable diesel’s dependence on imports represents a high vulnerability for both operators. With no local production or feedstock resources, marine operators in the Arctic Ocean region are entirely reliant on imported renewable diesel, leaving them exposed to significant risks from supply chain disruptions, fluctuating costs, and transportation delays caused by weather events. Establishing dedicated long-term storage facilities and diesel transportation networks in the Arctic would provide a buffer during periods of weather-related delays, securing renewable diesel for operators despite seasonal disruptions. Additionally, creating partnerships with logistics providers specialized in Arctic transport could improve the reliability of renewable diesel imports. These two mitigation actions address key vulnerabilities at the domestic renewable diesel stock and transportation nodes, ensuring they efficiently connect the renewable diesel supply even in challenging environments. However, renewable diesel offers distinct advantages over biodiesel in this region. As mentioned in Section 2.1 the comparison of biodiesel and renewable diesel, unlike biodiesel, which has gelling issue in low temperatures, renewable diesel maintains its performance and remains stable even in the extreme cold because of its lower cloud points. Additionally, its chemical composition allows it to be stored for extended periods without degradation, which is crucial in remote Arctic locations and potential supply disruption due to extreme weather events. These advantages make renewable diesel an ideal choice for operators in this region. Promoting renewable diesel’s unique benefits mitigates operational vulnerabilities at the domestic renewable diesel consumed by marine operators node by ensuring performance reliability and reducing operational risks. 148 Chapter 5: Conclusion 5.1 Summary of Findings 5.1.1 Findings from Assessment Framework Building This research develops vulnerability assessment frameworks for the biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chains using causal loop diagrams. Throughout the framework development process, first, I identify supply chain pressures from supply, demand, and external perspectives, comprehensively from feedstock supply to fuel consumption. A collection of pressures from existing literature broadens the understanding of potential challenges in the biofuel supply chain that have not been fully explored in previous studies. As a second step, the research defines state indicators to quantitatively measure the impact of these pressures on the supply chain. This provides a foundation for a mixed quantitative and qualitative approach to assessing biofuel supply chain vulnerabilities. Additionally, through synthesis the current biofuel supply chain states, the research exposes counterintuitive dynamics, such as the extensive export and re-import of domestically produced feedstock—a process that highlights both policy-driven incentives and structural inefficiencies within the supply chain. By bringing these insights to light, the research not only maps the current state but also provides a critical lens on how the system functions, laying essential groundwork for future improvements. By connecting the identified pressures with core supply chain processes for biodiesel and renewable diesel through CLDs, this research group these pressures into the subsystems. The natural environment, human and social factors, production technology and infrastructure, domestic and global markets, and policy and regulatory frameworks are critical subsystems that influence the reliability and consistency of the biofuel supply chain. Categorizing pressures into 149 these subsystems helps clarify their nature and aids in considering potential mitigation actions. This integrated approach supports a detailed assessment of vulnerabilities in the strategy mapping and case study sections. Building on the CLDs, the strategy mapping analysis, using a semi-quantitative approach based on system dynamics modeling, identifies the interconnections and interdependencies between pressures and supply chain processes. Triangulation was employed to test robustness, validating the reliability of the findings. This analysis highlights the link between domestic and international fuel supply chains, showing how they can mutually reinforce each other’s growth, yet any disruptions in one can significantly impact the other. Potency analysis reveals that feedstock processing is the most influential component in both biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chains. However, a unique vulnerability is observed in the renewable diesel supply chain within feedstock collection and transportation processes, likely due to its dependence on reliable transport for raw material collection and processing. Additionally, betweenness centrality analysis emphasizes the importance of bridge processes that maintain system stability, such as fuel production, distribution, consumption, and feedstock availability. Key distinctions also identified between the two supply chains: in biodiesel, raw material availability shows a strong bridging effect due to its crop-based feedstock reliance, while in renewable diesel, end-user demand serves as a crucial bridge, likely because of the limited alternative uses for waste-derived feedstocks. 5.1.2 Findings from Case Study In the case study section, I compare supply chain differences among four Canadian marine regions to discuss how regional variations present diverse challenges for domestic marine operators. These differences are driven by each region’s unique infrastructure, climate, resource 150 availability, and regulatory frameworks. Additionally, GMOs and CMOs face distinct challenges based on their operational needs, with GMOs generally exhibiting greater resilience due to federal support and preferences on domestically produced biofuel, while CMOs encounter higher vulnerability due to cost sensitivity. Both types of operators are concerned about overall GHG reduction, fuel safety during transportation and operations, and the policy and regulatory frameworks for low-carbon fuel adaptation. This section summarizes the key findings of the two fuel supply chains, highlighting vulnerability mitigation priorities and potential actions across the marine regions. The Pacific Ocean and Great Lakes regions exhibit strong supply chain resilience for biodiesel and renewable diesel, supported by robust infrastructure, locally produced feedstocks, fuel availability, and well-established transportation networks. In these regions, biodiesel is a more cost-efficient option for both GMOs and CMOs, as it avoids cold-weather performance concerns and benefits from strong local production capacity. However, these strengths do not fully shield operators from vulnerabilities. Extreme weather remains a high vulnerability for both GMOs and CMOs, disrupting feedstock availability and fuel transport networks. Mitigation efforts should prioritize addressing these impacts through measures such as extreme weather monitoring, increasing biodiesel and feedstock storage, and enhancing pipeline infrastructure to reduce vulnerabilities for both operator types. Market fluctuations driven by competitive demand from other transportation sectors and international markets present additional challenges, particularly for financially vulnerable CMOs, making this the second priority for them. Biodiesel stability concerns, which can cause degradation during long-term storage, represent moderate vulnerabilities. However, these are less urgent due to current regulatory blend limits below 20%, allowing GMOs and CMOs time to 151 focus on long-term improvements such as active fuel quality monitoring, regular maintenance of storage infrastructure, and upgrading production methods. Renewable diesel production is expanding in these regions, offering advantages such as better GHG reduction, compatibility with existing infrastructure, and potentially lower prices as local capacity grows. With biodiesel blend levels expected to increase, necessitating financial investments and specialized equipment, renewable diesel may become a more favorable low-carbon fuel option for both operators. Similarly, other emerging fuels could replace biofuels if they deliver superior GHG reductions, viable commercial production, and cost-efficient use on vessels. The Arctic Ocean region faces the highest vulnerability among all regions, with GMOs and CMOs encountering severe challenges in maintaining reliable biofuel supplies. Biodiesel’s poor cold-weather performance makes renewable diesel the preferred option in this region, although CMOs must account for its higher cost. Extreme weather poses a significant vulnerability for both operators, causing transport delays and infrastructure challenges for road and maritime methods, which should be addressed as a top priority. Mitigation strategies include expanding storage facilities and implementing extreme weather monitoring systems. Reliance on biofuel imports in the Arctic creates moderate market vulnerability for GMOs and high vulnerability for CMOs, driven by competing demand from other sectors and international markets. Addressing this issue should be a secondary priority. CMOs face greater financial risks due to cost sensitivity, while GMOs benefit from government procurement mechanisms that provide some buffer against market pressures. Both shipping and road transport methods remain vulnerable to extreme weather and should be strategically cross-considered 152 under varying conditions to ensure supply chain stability. As ice coverage decreases, shipping transport conditions are expected to improve. In the Atlantic Ocean region, extreme weather events similarly create high vulnerability for both operators, while winter temperatures necessitate seasonal optimization of fuel usage. Biodiesel is preferred in the summer for its lower cost, whereas renewable diesel is better suited for winter due to its superior cold-weather performance. Like the Arctic, the Atlantic region faces moderate to high vulnerability for both GMOs and CMOs from competition with other sectors and rising international biofuel demand, exacerbated by reliance on imports. However, the expansion of local fuel production capacity and active trade reduces market fluctuation vulnerabilities in the Atlantic compared to the Arctic. 5.2 Implication Based on the critical findings of this research, there are both practical and theoretical implications from the assessment framework and case study sections that can guide future research for researchers and stakeholders in the marine shipping industry interested in low-carbon fuel transformation. First, by gathering and mapping supply chain pressures from existing literature, this research provides a comprehensive framework that identifies and categorizes challenges such as market fluctuation, feedstock availability, and policy impacts. The causal relationships between these pressures and supply chain processes offer a layered view, enabling stakeholders to understand how high-level pressures cascade through various supply chain stages, leading to vulnerabilities in reliability and feasibility. This framework pinpoints root causes, guiding stakeholders toward targeted interventions. Second, the use of state indicators to assess the current supply chain status introduces a quantitative method to evaluate how pressures impact supply chain feasibility and reliability. For 153 instance, due to U.S. biofuel support policies, nearly all Canadian-produced biodiesel is exported to the U.S., while Canadian domestic use relies on U.S. imports (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2023). This approach helps stakeholders identify processes most vulnerable to pressures and provides data-driven insights for targeted interventions. Third, the combined use of CLDs and strategy mapping provides a robust approach for analyzing the system dynamics of Canada’s biofuel supply chain. This approach leverages graph theory and network theory to uncover the complex interconnections and interdependencies within the system (Barnes & Harary, 1983; Hashemi et al., 2024), offering a clearer view of vulnerable supply chain processes. Through strategy mapping, this research addresses the challenge of visualizing and interpreting complex relationships across the supply chain. It highlights critical inner loops, influential nodes, and bridge nodes, which play essential roles in maintaining supply chain resilience. Recognizing these key processes allows stakeholders to focus on areas where minor vulnerabilities could significantly impact the entire supply chain, thereby efficiently enhancing supply chain management (Awudu & Zhang, 2012). Fourth, by examining Canada’s biofuel supply chains through four regional case studies, this study identifies specific vulnerabilities in the Pacific Ocean, Great Lakes, Arctic Ocean, and Atlantic Ocean regions from the perspectives of government and commercial marine operators. This regionally focused approach aligns with sustainability research that emphasizes localized analyses to capture supply chain complexities. The case study framework also provides a valuable methodological model for future research, demonstrating how expert interviews and regional analyses can be combined to assess supply chain risks and address complexities in disruptions Khezerlou et al., 2021). 154 In terms of actionable interventions, the study offers targeted recommendations tailored to each region’s unique challenges and the specific needs of government and commercial operators. These tailored interventions support maritime stakeholders in strengthening regional supply chain resilience while advancing broader sustainability goals, such as reducing GHG emissions in marine transport and informing decisions on alternative fuel options Bouman et al., 2017). 5.3 Limitations and Future Research This research applied qualitative methods to comprehensively identify and understand the supply chain pressures on biodiesel and renewable diesel, using quantitative indicators to evaluate the potential impact of these pressures, which may cause vulnerabilities. While these quantitative indicators could be further refined to capture the degree of vulnerabilities, for the purposes of this study, the current approach provides a foundational understanding, facilitating an initial assessment of key vulnerabilities. In future work, developing a quantitative dashboard that integrates regional differences and marine operators' preferences could build on the foundational insights established in this study, offering clearer, data-driven insights for industry stakeholders and generating further opportunities to assess and address specific supply chain vulnerabilities. Another limitation is the availability of data on biodiesel and renewable diesel supply chain practices in Canada. For instance, there is limited data regarding waste-related feedstocks and renewable diesel utilization, as well as on feedstock and fuel demand across different sectors. To mitigate this, I drew from the most recent available data and relied on insights from expert interviews and the literature. Building on these insights, future research with enhanced 155 data availability could provide a more comprehensive view of supply chain pressures and their impact on vulnerabilities. Another limitation of this research is the challenge of capturing diverse aspects of the biofuel supply chain within the same framework. The use of summary variables in the CLDs helps generate a cohesive system map but can aggregate dynamics that may need more specific definitions. Future work should address this limitation by incorporating system dynamics modeling to refine and validate the causal relationships represented in the CLDs (Coyle, 1997). This transition involves identifying stocks and flow, and auxiliaries, structuring the CLD into a Stock-and-Flow Diagram, and quantifying relationships to develop a fully dynamic model (Binder et al., 2004). For example, in the biodiesel CLD, domestic biodiesel stock volume is influenced by import, export, domestic production volumes, storage capacity and storage adequacy which can be labeled as stocks, flows, or auxiliaries. Empirical data, such as annual trade and production statistics from databases like Statistics Canada and storage-related data from production plants and literature, can support the development of the model. Validation could be conducted through comparing simulated biodiesel stock levels with historical data. The model could simulate biodiesel stock levels under various scenarios, such as high export demand or limited storage capacity, to evaluate the impact of certain variables on domestic biodiesel availability. Sensitivity analysis could be employed to assess the robustness of the model by adjusting critical variables (X. Zhang et al., 2022), such as trade volumes or production rates. Furthermore, I conduct expert interviews used to understand the supply chain concerns of government and CMOs in Canada with scholars with expertise in biofuel implementation and prior collaboration experience with marine operators. This approach provides a specific lens on 156 supply chain challenges. The study also balances these scholarly insights with supporting literature to provide a robust understanding of the biofuel supply chain’s potential vulnerabilities from marine operators’ perspectives. While the study acknowledges the valuable insights provided by these experts and supported their findings with literature evidence, future work on interviews directly with marine operators would offer additional real-world insights within the two supply chains. This would offer stronger evidence of their biofuel preferences, resulting in findings that more effectively support decision-making processes. Beyond biodiesel and renewable diesel, there is growing interest among marine operators in emerging alternative fuels. As these alternatives continue to develop, they may offer better performance in reducing greenhouse gas emissions. 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Waste Management, 60, 329–339. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wasman.2016.11.004 Zsidisin, G. A., & Ritchie, B. (2008). Supply Chain Risk: A Handbook of Assessment, Management, and Performance. Springer Science & Business Media. 199 Appendices Appendix A Comparison of Physico-Chemical Properties of Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel (Identical to Conventional Diesel) Biodiesel, produced through transesterification, is not a hydrocarbon fuel, which significantly differentiates it from renewable diesel, a hydrocarbon fuel synthesized through hydrodeoxygenation. Specifically, transesterification involves reacting vegetable oils or animal fats with alcohol in the presence of a catalyst, resulting in biodiesel and glycerol as a byproduct. Hydrodeoxygenation, on the other hand, involves hydrogenating the feedstock at high pressure and temperature to remove oxygen, producing renewable diesel that lacks oxygen. This process yields a higher-quality fuel compared to biodiesel (Gerveni et al., 2023). As a result, renewable diesel is chemically similar to petroleum diesel, making it fully compatible with existing diesel engines and fuel infrastructure (Gerveni et al., 2023). In contrast, biodiesel contains oxygen, which makes it more susceptible to microbial fouling, although blending it with petroleum diesel can mitigate this issue. While renewable diesel is chemically identical to petroleum diesel due to its production through hydrodeoxygenation, biodiesel, produced via transesterification, differs in composition (Gerveni et al., 2023). Although biodiesel and renewable diesel share similar feedstocks, such as vegetable oil and waste cooking oil and fat, the feedstock requirements for renewable diesel production are higher than those for biodiesel. During the renewable diesel production process, more material is lost, increasing the overall feedstock demand compared to biodiesel (Gerveni et al., 2023). For example, Xu et al. (2022) estimated that producing 1 kg of biodiesel requires around 1 kg of vegetable oil or 1.05 kg of waste cooking oil, while producing 1 kg of renewable diesel requires approximately 1.26 kg of either vegetable oil or waste cooking oil. If feedstock availability is a 200 concern for biofuel production expansion, biodiesel offers better feedstock conversion efficiency than renewable diesel. Each fuel type’s specific production requirements and regional agricultural strengths have led to distinct preferences across North America. In Canada, where canola production is extensive, vegetable oils such as canola and soybean are practical and efficient feedstock choices for biodiesel, leveraging the country’s established agricultural resources (Xu et al., 2022). Additionally, Canada imports biodiesel from the U.S., where production has historically been concentrated in the Midwest, a region rich in soybean oil resources. Renewable diesel, however, requires a higher quantity of feedstock due to material losses in the hydrodeoxygenation process. Across North America, renewable diesel production increasingly favors waste-derived feedstocks like waste cooking oil and animal fats. Although Canada established its first renewable diesel production facility only in 2024, it has been importing renewable diesel from the U.S., where early production was linked to animal fats (Jeremy Martin, 2024). In the U.S., a well-established waste cooking oil recycling system supports renewable diesel production by supplying waste feedstocks rather than fresh vegetable oils to meet low-carbon fuel policies. This approach is particularly relevant in Canada, where prioritizing waste oils aligns with environmental goals and reduces reliance on edible oils that could otherwise compete with food production (Gerveni et al., 2023). In terms of byproducts, renewable diesel’s byproducts have greater market value than those of biodiesel, potentially resulting in higher profitability. Crude glycerol is the primary byproduct of biodiesel production (Gerveni et al., 2023). While there is limited market demand for crude glycerol, refined glycerol has a stronger market presence but requires additional refining costs (Chilakamarry et al., 2021). In contrast, renewable diesel generates liquefied 201 petroleum gas and naphtha as major byproducts (California Energy Commission, 2022). Liquefied petroleum gas is widely used for heating and cooking, while naphtha serves as a feedstock for petrochemical production (Ray et al., 2014). The higher market value of renewable diesel byproducts can potentially encourage biofuel producers to invest in renewable diesel production over biodiesel production. Biodiesel and renewable diesel also have different requirements for storage and transportation. Biodiesel has relatively higher water content—around 28.5-500 mg/kg compared to renewable diesel’s 42-95 mg/kg—leading to a higher risk of microbial growth and fuel degradation (Schleicher et al., 2009). Blends of up to 20% biodiesel with petroleum diesel can use existing storage and transportation infrastructure with minimal modifications (McCormick & Moriarty, 2023). However, higher biodiesel blends require special storage conditions, increasing infrastructure maintenance costs. Biodiesel is considered safer than renewable diesel during storage and transportation due to its higher flash point, despite renewable diesel sharing similar safety characteristics with conventional diesel, which has well-established safe handling practices. The flash point, indicating the lowest temperature at which the vapor-air mixture above the liquid fuel ignites when exposed to a fire source (Semorile et al., 2022), is higher for biodiesel. Biodiesel’s flash point ranges from 96°C to 188°C, compared to renewable diesel’s range of 68°C to 120°C (Bezergianni & Dimitriadis, 2013). This higher flash point makes biodiesel less volatile and therefore safer for storage and transportation. In terms of energy content, renewable diesel outperforms biodiesel, with a net heating value of 42-44 MJ/kg compared to biodiesel’s 37.1-40.4 MJ/kg (Bezergianni & Dimitriadis, 2013). This higher energy density allows renewable diesel to provide more energy per unit 202 volume, offering better fuel efficiency. The oxygen content in biodiesel lowers its energy, resulting in around 7% less energy by volume, leading to higher fuel consumption to achieve the same energy output (Gerveni et al., 2023). Cold temperature performance also varies between the two fuels. Renewable diesel, with its lower cloud point of around -25°C to -30°C, is better suited for cold environments than biodiesel, which has a cloud point range of -3°C to -17°C (Bezergianni & Dimitriadis, 2013). Biodiesel’s relatively higher cloud point means it more easily freezes and forms visible crystals in cold temperatures, eventually leading to gelling, which stops flow through fuel lines (Gerveni et al., 2023). From an air pollution perspective, both fuels have low sulfur content, with biodiesel having marginally lower sulfur levels—around 0–0.012 mg/kg—compared to renewable diesel’s less than 10 mg/kg (Bezergianni & Dimitriadis, 2013). While both emit lower sulfur dioxide levels compared to conventional diesel, biodiesel has slightly lower sulfur dioxide emissions during combustion than renewable diesel. 203 Appendix B Table of Pressures Challenges Pressure Pressure Category Definition Supply challenges Domestic land competition for crop production (Mata et al., 2011) Human and social environment Producing feedstocks such as canola and soybean has high land requirements, which are also demanded by food crop production and non-agricultural uses. Potential food security issues arise from competing pressures for agricultural land between fuel production and non-agricultural applications (e.g., urbanization) 204 Challenges Pressure Pressure Category Definition The impact of climate change on crop production (Stone et al., 2010) Natural environment Feedstock loss due to extreme weather and a warming climate may impact alternative fuel production. While some crops may initially benefit from mild warming, increased droughts, floods, and heatwaves reduce yields and limit feedstock availability. Additionally, climate variability creates inconsistent growing conditions, complicating reliable biofuel production Seasonal growth patterns for crops (Wolff et al., 2023) Natural environment Some feedstocks can only be grown during specific seasons of the year, which affects the continuous supply required for biofuel production Specific crop storage requirements to prevent degradation (Ajiboye, 2023) Production technology and The storage of feedstocks requires specific conditions to prevent degradation. For instance, temperature and humidity need to be 205 Challenges Pressure Pressure Category Definition transportation infrastructures controlled to maintain the quality of crop-based feedstocks Challenge on waste cooking oil collection or imports (Manaf et al., 2019) Production technology and transportation infrastructures Certain feedstocks, such as waste cooking oil and animal fat, need to be collected or imported for biofuel production, which may face challenges in ensuring a stable supply from both local and international sources Technology development for oil extraction and waste cooking oil rendering 12/5/2024 5:39:00 PM Production technology and transportation infrastructures The development of technology for efficient feedstock processing is a critical factor Operations of feedstock production (Axon & Darton, 2021) Production technology and transportation infrastructures The availability and capacity for feedstock production to meet the processing needs of alternative fuel production must be considered 206 Challenges Pressure Pressure Category Definition Limited transportation capacity for feedstock (Kim et al., 2017) Production technology and transportation infrastructures Transportation capacity and the adequacy of existing transport and storage infrastructure are crucial for maintaining a consistent feedstock supply Operations of fuel production site (Axon & Darton, 2021)12/5/2024 5:39:00 PM Production technology and transportation infrastructures The availability and potential expansion of fuel production sites play a significant role in supporting alternative fuel production Technology development for fuel production (Kesieme et al., 2019) Production technology and transportation infrastructures The development and accessibility of technology for efficient fuel production are essential to address challenges and enhance productivity Special requirements for fuel storage Leung et al., 2006) Production technology and The special requirements for fuel storage, such as biodiesel needing to be stored at controlled temperatures 207 Challenges Pressure Pressure Category Definition transportation infrastructures in specialized material tanks, increase storage costs. Additionally, biodiesel often has a lower storage capacity compared to renewable diesel, which can be stored in existing conventional diesel tanks Transportation for alternative (Mohiddin et al., 2021) Production technology and transportation infrastructures The capacity of current transport and storage infrastructure is essential for ensuring a consistent fuel supply. While renewable diesel can utilize conventional fuel distribution systems, biodiesel often requires specialized storage, which may disrupt supply 208 Challenges Pressure Pressure Category Definition Import supply for alternative fuel (Malins & Sandford, 2022) Domestic and global biofuel market Alternative fuel imports can support domestic fuel needs and may encourage local development by meeting demand. However, if imports are more cost-competitive, they could discourage domestic expansion. The impact depends on factors such as pricing, policy support, and infrastructure investment Demand challenges Competitive users demand for feedstock (Svanberg et al., 2018) Domestic and global biofuel market Various industries compete for the same feedstock resources, including food production, animal feed, and alternative fuel production, which can lead to potential shortages and increased prices 209 Challenges Pressure Pressure Category Definition Domestic alternative fuel demand for consumption (Awudu & Zhang, 2012) Domestic and global biofuel market Different sectors, such as transportation, agriculture, and industry, compete for the limited supply of alternative fuels, creating potential shortages and price increases. Internal market demand for alternative fuels is critical for energy security and economic stability. High domestic demand can drive production but may also strain supply chains Exported demand for alternative fuel (Malins & Sandford, 2022) Domestic and global biofuel market The global demand for alternative fuels affects domestic supply. A significant portion of production may be allocated for export to meet international needs, thereby reducing local availability External challenges Policy and regulation on feedstock production Axon & Darton, Policy and regulatory frameworks Government policies and regulations on feedstock production can influence supply positively or 210 Challenges Pressure Pressure Category Definition 2021)12/5/2024 5:39:00 PM negatively. Incentives such as subsidies for crop production or waste oil recycling can increase availability, while restrictions on land use or environmental regulations may limit feedstock supply and fuel production capacity Policy and regulation on alternative fuel production (Axon & Darton, 2021) Policy and regulatory frameworks Government policies and regulations on alternative fuel production significantly impact the fuel industry's operations Trained workforce or specialist (Axon & Darton, 2021) Human and social environment The alternative fuel industry requires a skilled workforce with specialized knowledge. A shortage of skilled workers, such as technicians trained in biofuel processing or engineers experienced with catalytic hydrotreating equipment for 211 Challenges Pressure Pressure Category Definition renewable diesel production, can reduce productivity Feedstock and fuel market instability (Axon & Darton, 2021) Domestic and global biofuel market Market volatility in feedstock and alternative fuels can lead to fluctuations in supply and demand, affecting production stability and pricing 212 Appendix C Table of State Indicators State Measurable Indicator Data (Latest yearly data with post-covid averages (2022 Onwards)) Productivity of feedstock Energy output per acre Canola The annual energy output per acre ranged approximately from 13,124 MJ to 14,410 MJ from 2022 to 2023 Soybean The annual energy output per acre for soybeans ranged approximately between 1,655 MJ and 1,843 MJ from 2022 to 2023 Availability of agricultural land Acres of arable land available for alternative fuel feedstock production Canola Based on the Land Suitability Rating System developed by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, nearly 52 thousand hectares of the top three classes of land were taken out of agricultural production between 2011 and 2020. Most of the loss resulted from a 40-thousand-hectare expansion in urban infrastructure and a 25-thousand-hectare expansion in rural residential development. Alberta's canola production stabilized at around 5.7 million tonnes, with a noticeable decline in seed production since the 2017 peak of 6.8 million tonnes (Brown, 2023) 213 State Measurable Indicator Data (Latest yearly data with post-covid averages (2022 Onwards)) Soybean The average seeded area for soybeans is 5,549,167 acres annually from 2022 to 2024 (Statistics Canada, n.d.) Availability of feedstock Volume of feedstock collected annually Waste cooking oil (Yellow grease) In 2022, Canada collected approximately 318,000 tonnes (around 85 million gallons) of waste cooking oil (GlobalData, 2023) Animal fat (Beef tallow) In 2021, the quantity of beef tallow in Canada was 324.5 million kg (Tridge, n.d.) Volume of feedstock produced annually Canola oil Canadian oilseed processors crushed a record 10,522,947 tonnes of canola in 2023, up 20.0% from 2022; oil production totaled 4,422,368 tonnes for canola in 2023 (Statistics Canada, 2024) Soybean oil The amount of soybeans crushed in Canada decreased by 5.7% to 1,762,693 tonnes in 2023 compared to 2022; oil production totaled 329,856 tonnes for soybeans in 2023 (Statistics Canada, 2024) 214 State Measurable Indicator Data (Latest yearly data with post-covid averages (2022 Onwards)) Volume of feedstock imported annually Canola Canada is a major canola producer and exporter Soybean Canada is a major soybean producer and exporter Waste cooking oil NA Animal fat From 2022 to 2023, the average annual import volume of beef tallow was around 46,400 tonnes in Canada (Tridge, n.d.) Volume of feedstock exported annually Canola Canadian canola seed exports reached 7,087,518 tonnes in 2023 (Canola Council of Canada, n.d.) Canola oil Canadian canola oil exports totaled 3,150,647 tonnes in 2023 (Canola Council of Canada, n.d.) Soybean Canadian soybean exports totaled 4,423,150 tonnes in 2023 (Soy Canada, n.d.) Soybean oil Canadian soybean oil exports totaled approximately 40,000 tonnes in 2023 (Soy Canada, n.d.) 215 State Measurable Indicator Data (Latest yearly data with post-covid averages (2022 Onwards)) Waste cooking oil NA Animal fat In 2022, Canada exported $92.6M worth of animal fat, making it the 3rd largest exporter of animal fat globally (OEC, n.d.) Affordability of feedstock Cost per unit of energy output Canola The annual cost per unit of energy output ranged approximately from 0.048 CAD/MJ to 0.052 CAD/MJ from 2022 to 2023 Soybean The annual cost per unit of energy output ranged approximately from 0.457 CAD/MJ to 0.509 CAD/MJ from 2022 to 2023 Waste cooking oil NA Animal fat NA Capacity for feedstock production expansion Arable land for feedstock cultivation Canola The crop is primarily grown in the western provinces of Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Manitoba (Canola Council of Canada, n.d.). Based on the Land Suitability Rating System developed by Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, nearly 52 thousand hectares 216 State Measurable Indicator Data (Latest yearly data with post-covid averages (2022 Onwards)) of the top three classes of land were removed from agricultural production between 2011 and 2020. Most of this loss resulted from urban infrastructure expansion (40 thousand hectares) and rural residential development (25 thousand hectares). Alberta's canola production stabilized at around 5.7 million tonnes, with a noticeable decline in seed production since the 2017 peak of 6.8 million tonnes (Brown, 2023) Soybean The traditional growing area for soybeans is southern Ontario. Soybean crops are also regularly rotated on farms in Manitoba, Quebec, and the Maritimes and, more recently, in Saskatchewan and some areas of Alberta (Soy Canada, n.d.) 217 State Measurable Indicator Data (Latest yearly data with post-covid averages (2022 Onwards)) Land efficiency for feedstock cultivation Canola The increased demand for canola as a feedstock for biodiesel has led to price increases, encouraging farmers to grow more canola. Although canola acreage has remained fairly steady over the past decade, total production has increased due to higher average yields. The development of new canola traits and varieties has improved yields and addressed agronomic challenges. By adopting advanced genetic traits, including herbicide tolerance and disease resistance, as well as innovations in crop protection and nutrient management, Canadian farmers have increased canola production per acre (Canola Council of Canada, n.d.) Soybean Soybean yields increase as crop prices rise and decline as fertilizer prices increase (Xu et al., 2019). The rising demand for 218 State Measurable Indicator Data (Latest yearly data with post-covid averages (2022 Onwards)) soybeans as a biodiesel feedstock has also led to price increases, encouraging farmers to grow more soybeans The advanced development of soybean breeding and high-yield varieties has further motivated Canadian farmers to expand soybean cultivation. Public soybean breeding programs, such as the one at the University of Guelph in Ontario, focus on developing high-yielding, high-quality, and disease-resistant cultivars (Yoosefzadeh-Najafabadi & Rajcan, 2023). New soybean varieties, such as BY Logan XT, B0071RX, and P000A24E, offering excellent yield potential, are driving more Canadian farmers to grow soybeans for processing (SoyCanada, n.d.; Polk, 2022) Potential increase in feedstock Waste cooking oil There is no comprehensive data on used cooking oil collection in Canada. However, Canada has potential to import waste 219 State Measurable Indicator Data (Latest yearly data with post-covid averages (2022 Onwards)) collection or import cooking oil from Asian countries, following the example of the U.S., which imported over 3 billion pounds of waste cooking oil in 2023, more than half of which came from China (Reuters, 2024) Animal fat NA Technology innovation for feedstock production Canola oil Supercritical extraction, aqueous enzyme extraction, microwave, and ultrasound processing are advanced methods to improve canola oil yield and quality. Microwave and ultrasound processing can be implemented either as novel processes or as interventions in traditional processes. However, pilot-scale studies are required to determine whether these methods can enhance canola oil yield at a larger production scale (Gaber et al., 2018) Soybean oil NA 220 State Measurable Indicator Data (Latest yearly data with post-covid averages (2022 Onwards)) Capacity for feedstock production Canola oil The current canola crush capacity in Canada was 11.3 million tonnes in 2022 (United States Department of Agriculture, 2023). Since 2021, five major announcements have indicated an additional 6.7 million tonnes of canola processing capacity by 2025. By 2025, it is estimated that 62% of canola grown in Canada will be processed domestically, slightly higher than the long-term average of approximately 50% (Canola Council of Canada, n.d.) Soybean oil Canadian soybean processors handle more than 1.8 million tonnes of soybeans annually. The three major soybean processing plants, which also process canola, are located in Ontario (Windsor and Hamilton) and Quebec (Bécancour). No new soybean processing sites have been announced 221 State Measurable Indicator Data (Latest yearly data with post-covid averages (2022 Onwards)) Waste cooking oil & animal fat There are two processing plants producing biodiesel from animal fats and used cooking oil, located in Quebec and British Columbia, with a combined capacity of 67 million liters of biodiesel per year (Saini et al., 2021). No construction of new yellow grease and tallow processing sites has been reported Policy environment for the feedstock production Canola & Soybean The Clean Fuel Regulation and several provincial requirements, such as those in Ontario and British Columbia mandating a 4% biodiesel blend, encourage the production of low-carbon fuels, increasing demand for biodiesel from canola and soybean (Saini et al., 2021) The Sustainable Canadian Agricultural Partnership (Sustainable CAP) brings together federal, provincial, and territorial governments through a $3.5-billion, 5-year agreement to strengthen and grow Canada’s 222 State Measurable Indicator Data (Latest yearly data with post-covid averages (2022 Onwards)) agricultural sector, encouraging technological innovation in canola and soybean breeding and production expansion (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, n.d.) Waste cooking oil & animal fat There is no existing policy on waste cooking oil or animal fat collection or recycling. Only guidance on how to dispose of or recycle fats and oils is provided by local governments in Canada Capacity of feedstock storage Capital of feedstock stored annually Canola The capital of canola feedstock stored annually is approximately CAD 9,599,115.60 from 2022 to 2023 (Statistics Canada, n.d.) Soybean The capital of soybean feedstock stored annually is approximately CAD 266,631,600 from 2022 to 2023 (Statistics Canada, n.d.) Matured feedstock Canola oil Mature rail and road transportation systems for canola exist, but there is limited 223 State Measurable Indicator Data (Latest yearly data with post-covid averages (2022 Onwards)) Capacity of feedstock transportation transportation system existing or not information on how canola oil is transported to biodiesel production sites Soybean oil Similarly, there are mature transportation systems for soybeans, as efficient road and rail systems connect to Great Lakes shipping lanes and ports on three coasts, allowing large volumes of soybeans to be moved quickly, efficiently, and consistently (SoyCanada, n.d.). However, there is limited information on how soybean oil is transported to biodiesel production sites Waste cooking oil & animal fat Mature transportation systems for yellow grease and tallow are developing in Canada. According to open-source data, private companies such as Redux and EcoZero, which collect used cooking oil and tallow, are responsible for transporting these feedstocks to rendering sites (Redux, n.d.; EcoZero, n.d.) 224 State Measurable Indicator Data (Latest yearly data with post-covid averages (2022 Onwards)) Productivity of fuel (Biodiesel Only) Conversion efficiency (Shahid & Jamal (2011) mentioned that the conversion efficiency of biodiesel via transesterification depends upon the nature of feedstock, amount and type of alcohol and catalyst, operating temperature, and reaction time) Canola oil Dmytryshyn et al. (2004) converted neat canola oil using methanol in the presence of a base catalyst and reported a conversion efficiency of 87%. Soybean oil Joshi et al. (2017) identified a maximum biodiesel yield of 84%, achieved with a catalyst loading of 3 wt% and a molar ratio of oil to methanol of 1:10 at 50 °C with a rotational speed of 12,000 rpm in 30 minutes Availability of fuel Volume of fuel produced annually Biodiesel The average biodiesel production in Canada was around 388 million liters annually from 2022 to 2023 (United States Department of Agriculture, 2023). Canadian biodiesel 225 State Measurable Indicator Data (Latest yearly data with post-covid averages (2022 Onwards)) production increased from 115 million liters in 2010 to 357 million liters in 2022, marking a 210% increase (Statista, n.d.) Renewable diesel Canada is expected to produce renewable diesel for the first time in 2023. According to FAS/Ottawa’s 2023 forecast, Tidewater Midstream, the only renewable diesel facility in Canada, is projected to reach around 75% of its capacity in 2023, which equates to approximately 127 million liters (United States Department of Agriculture, 2023). Volume of fuel imported annually Biodiesel The average biodiesel imported into Canada is around 380 million liters annually from 2022 to 2023 (Statista, n.d.) Renewable diesel Renewable diesel imports in 2022 totaled 380 million liters. As of 2023, 265 million liters have been imported, and imports are forecast to reach 460 million liters by the end of the year (United States Department 226 State Measurable Indicator Data (Latest yearly data with post-covid averages (2022 Onwards)) of Agriculture, 2023). Renewable diesel imports have remained low and steady over the past six years (2017 to 2022) but are expected to begin an upward trajectory in 2023 as renewable diesel helps Canadian obligated parties meet fuel carbon-intensity limits imposed under the CFR (United States Department of Agriculture, 2023) Volume of fuel exported annually Biodiesel Canada’s biodiesel plants are export-oriented. The average biodiesel export volume is approximately 389.5 million liters annually from 2022 to 2023 (Statista, n.d.). Nearly all biodiesel consumed in Canada is imported from the United States (United States Department of Agriculture, 2023) Renewable diesel NA 227 State Measurable Indicator Data (Latest yearly data with post-covid averages (2022 Onwards)) Volume of fuel consumed annually Biodiesel Canada consumed around 494 million liters of biodiesel in 2022 (Navius Research, 2023) Renewable diesel Canada consumed around 597 million liters of renewable diesel in 2022 (Navius Research, 2023) Capacity for fuel production expansion Potential technology innovation for fuel production Biodiesel Using solid catalysts like calcium oxide can enhance biodiesel production efficiency. For example, Kouzu et al. (2009) examined the performance of calcium oxide for the transesterification of soybean oil and found a conversion efficiency of around 93% Renewable diesel Advances in renewable diesel production technology have increased production efficiency and output. Several methods for producing renewable diesel are available, including biological sugar upgrading, catalytic conversion of sugars, gasification, pyrolysis, and hydrothermal processing (U.S. Department of Energy, n.d.) 228 State Measurable Indicator Data (Latest yearly data with post-covid averages (2022 Onwards)) Potential construction for new fuel production site and infrastructure Biodiesel There are 11 biodiesel facilities in Canada with a current capacity of around 450 million liters (United States Department of Agriculture, 2023). Capacity utilization is expected to be about 46% in 2023 (BiodieselMagazine, 2023) Renewable diesel Tidewater Midstream, the only renewable diesel facility in Canada, reportedly has an annual capacity of 170 million liters (United States Department of Agriculture, 2023). Seven new renewable diesel facilities are planned or under construction in Alberta, British Columbia, Quebec, and Newfoundland and Labrador. These facilities are expected to add up to 70 thousand barrels per day, equivalent to 4.07 billion liters per year, by 2027—up from zero in 2020 (Statistics Canada, 2024) Both 229 State Measurable Indicator Data (Latest yearly data with post-covid averages (2022 Onwards)) Policy environment for the alternative fuel production Federal and local government regulations on renewable fuel blends, along with government initiatives and funding, encourage the production and development of biodiesel. The Clean Fuel Regulation and several provincial requirements, such as those in Ontario and British Columbia, mandate a 4% biodiesel blend, increasing demand for biodiesel. Federal programs, such as the $1.58 billion USD Low Carbon Economy Fund, aim to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and increase clean fuel production (Saini et al., 2021) Capacity of fuel storage Matured infrastructure and facilities for fuel storage existing or not Biodiesel The infrastructure and facilities for biodiesel storage are still developing. Storing biodiesel blends above 5% requires specific equipment and tanks, as existing storage systems for conventional diesel cannot be directly used. Biodiesel acts as a mild solvent, cleaning out sediments formed 230 State Measurable Indicator Data (Latest yearly data with post-covid averages (2022 Onwards)) over time in equipment and storage tanks. This can occasionally cause filter plugging, especially in the early stages of switching from petroleum diesel to biodiesel blends. However, the U.S. National Renewable Energy Lab has found that this issue is negligible with B5 and lower blends (Government of Canada, 2023) Renewable diesel Optimal storage conditions are essential for maintaining the quality of renewable diesel. Renewable diesel has a long storage life of up to 10 years and a lower freeze point (-40ºF) compared to diesel (14ºF). While information on renewable diesel storage in Canada is limited, it follows the same regulations as conventional fuels like diesel, kerosene, and blends in the U.S. These regulations require storage in UL Listed tanks with secondary containment (Western Global, n.d.) 231 State Measurable Indicator Data (Latest yearly data with post-covid averages (2022 Onwards)) Capacity of fuel transportation Matured fuel transportation system existing or not Biodiesel While biodiesel can be delivered to major Canadian ports, there is limited information on its delivery to Arctic and Atlantic areas. Private service providers, such as Dan-Bunkering, can deliver biodiesel to all major Canadian ports, including Halifax, Montreal in the St. Lawrence Seaway, Hamilton in the Great Lakes, and Vancouver, B.C. (Dan-Bunkering, n.d.). Additionally, Greenergy has unique supply chains combining sea and rail-fed terminals with storage locations in British Columbia, Ontario, Quebec, and the U.S. Midwest, reducing dependence on single providers and minimizing supply disruption risks (Greenergy, n.d.) Renewable diesel Renewable diesel can share the same transportation systems as conventional diesel. Companies like 4Refuel, which provide diesel delivery services, are also 232 State Measurable Indicator Data (Latest yearly data with post-covid averages (2022 Onwards)) involved in renewable diesel transportation (4Refuel, n.d.) Quality of fuel Existing fuel quality standards Biodiesel There are three primary international and local standards for biodiesel and its blends used in Canada to regulate fuel quality. ASTM D6751 is a U.S. standard specification for biodiesel fuel blend stock (B100) for middle distillate fuels, outlining the properties that pure biodiesel must meet before blending with petroleum diesel. EN 14214, a European standard, is widely used, including in Canada, to ensure biodiesel quality. Canadian General Standards Board (CGSB) specifications, published since 2020, regulate B5, B20, and B100 blends, ensuring compatibility with modern diesel engines (Advanced Biofuels Canada, n.d.) Renewable diesel Biodiesel also meets the ASTM D975 specification for petroleum in the United 233 State Measurable Indicator Data (Latest yearly data with post-covid averages (2022 Onwards)) States and EN 590 in Europe (U.S. Department of Energy, n.d.) 234 Appendix D Links of Biodiesel CLD Link Explanation Reference Core loop for biodiesel produced by vegetable oil Domestic- Oil crop growing → Domestic- Oil crop harvesting Efficient oil crop growing directly influence the harvest quality and timing (Canola Council of Canada, n.d.) Domestic- Oil crop harvesting → Domestic- Oil crop stock Proper harvesting timing and quality increase the oil crop stock (Ajiboye, 2023) Domestic- Oil crop storage adequacy → Domestic- Oil crop storage stock Good storage adequacy, such as maintaining proper storage temperature and humidity, preserves the quality of oil crop stocks (Hellevang, 2018; Canola Council of Canada, 2019) Domestic- Oil crop storage capacity → Domestic- Oil crop stock The capacity to store crops affects the availability of feedstock (Elias & Copeland, 1994) Domestic- Oil crop imports →Domestic- Oil crop stock Imported crops can supplement domestic crop supply, enhancing overall feedstock availability (United States Department of Agriculture, 2023; Saini et al., 2021) 235 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Oil crop exports → Domestic- Oil crop stock Exporting crops reduces the domestic availability of crops for oil extraction (United States Department of Agriculture, 2023) Domestic- Alternative use of oil crop → Domestic- Oil crop stock Alternative uses of oil crops, such as food products and animal feed, reduce the oil crop stock available for oil extraction (Soycanada, n.d.) Domestic- Oil crop stock → Domestic- Oil crop transport to vegetable oil extraction site A larger oil crop stock results in more oil crops being transported to oil extraction sites (Prience, 2019) Domestic- Oil crop transport to vegetable oil extraction site → Domestic- Vegetable oil extraction Efficient transportation systems ensure that harvested crops can be quickly transported to oil extraction sites (Canola Council of Canada, n.d.; Prience, 2019) Domestic- Vegetable oil extraction → Domestic- Vegetable oil stock Proper extraction methods ensure that the oil is free from contaminants and has lower moisture content, which is critical for maintaining the quality of vegetable oil stock (Canola Council of Canada, n.d.) 236 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Vegetable oil storage adequency → Domestic- Vegetable oil stock Good storage adequacy, such as proper storage temperature and humility, maintain the quality of stocks (Sun et al., 2014) Domestic- Vegetable oil storage capacity→ Domestic- Vegetable oil stock The capacity vegetable oil can be stored affects the availability of feedstock (Sun et al., 2014) Domestic- Vegetable oil imports → Domestic- Vegetable oil stock Supplementing domestic biodiesel production with imports ensures a steady domestic stock (OEC, n.d.) Domestic- Vegetable oil exports → Domestic- Vegetable oil stock Exporting biodiesel reduces the amount available for domestic use (Canola Council of Canada, n.d.; Soy Canada, n.d.) Domestic- Alternative use of vegetable oil → Domestic- Vegetable oil stock Alternative uses of vegetable oil, such as cooking and baking, decrease the vegetable oil stock for biodiesel production. (Soycanada, n.d.) Domestic- Vegetable oil stock →Domestic- Vegetable oil Good transportation systems ensure that vegetable oil can be quickly (Prience, 2019) 237 Link Explanation Reference transport to biodiesel production site transported to the biodiesel production site Domestic- Vegetable oil transport to biodiesel production site → Domestic- Biodiesel production More vegetable oil transported to production sites leads to increased biodiesel production (Biodiesel Magazine, 2023) Domestic- Biodiesel production → Domestic- Biodiesel stock Efficient biodiesel production processes maximize the conversion rate of vegetable oil into biodiesel, increasing biodiesel stock (United States Department of Agriculture, 2023; Statista, n.d.) Domestic- Biodiesel storage adequacy → Domestic- Biodiesel stock Good storage adequacy, such as proper storage temperature and humility, maintain the quality of biodiesel stocks (Government of Manitoba, n.d.) Domestic- Biodiesel storage capacity → Domestic- Biodiesel stock The capacity biodiesel can be stored affects the availability of biodiesel (Government of Manitoba, n.d.) Domestic- Biodiesel imports → Domestic- Biodiesel stock Supplementing domestic biodiesel production with imports ensures a steady domestic stock (United States Department of Agriculture, 2023) 238 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Biodiesel exports → Domestic- Biodiesel stock Exporting biodiesel reduces the amount available for domestic stock (United States Department of Agriculture, 2023) Domestic- Biodiesel stock → Domestic- Biodiesel transport to distribution center A larger biodiesel stock results in more biodiesel transported to distribution centers (Prentice, 2019) Domestic- Biodiesel distribution → Domestic- Biodiesel consumption Effective distribution networks ensure biodiesel is delivered efficiently to domestic consumers (U.S. Department of Energy, n.d.) Domestic- Biodiesel consumption → Domestic- Biodiesel demand Higher biodiesel consumption meets domestic biodiesel demand (Ogunkoya et al., 2015) Domestic- Biodiesel demand →Domestic- Feedstock demand for oil crops Increased biodiesel demand drives higher biodiesel feedstock demand (Zafirou et al., 2023) Domestic- Feedstock demand for oil crops → Domestic- Oil crop growing (feedback loop) Greater biodiesel feedstock demand encourages farmers to grow more oil crops (Zafirou et al., 2023) Pressure category- Natural environment 239 Link Explanation Reference Increased climate change → Domestic- Extreme weather events Increased climate change leads to more frequent and severe extreme weather events (NASA, n.d.) Increased climate change → Domestic- Warmer Temperature Increased climate change results in higher average temperatures (NASA, 2022) Domestic- Extreme weather events → Domestic- Oil crop growing factors Extreme weather events negatively impact oil crop growing factors by causing damage and stress to crops (Statistics Canada, 2021) Domestic- Warmer Temperature → Domestic- Oil crop growing factors Up to a certain temperature threshold, warmer temperatures can positively affect domestic oil crop growing factors; however, beyond this threshold, they can have negative impacts (Qian et al., 2019; Qian et al., 2023) Domestic-Extreme weather conditions → Domestic-Pest and disease Extreme weather events can increase pest populations and the likelihood of related diseases (Cherlinka, 2023) Domestic- Warmer Temperature → Domestic-Pest and disease Flea beetle management, especially seed treatment, may be needed in canola growing regions after a warm (Cherlinka, 2023) 240 Link Explanation Reference winter or in the event of hot, dry conditions following planting Domestic-Pest and disease → Domestic- Oil crop growing factors Increased pest and disease pressure negatively impact oil crop growing factors by reducing crop health and yield (Cherlinka, 2023) Domestic- Oil crop growing factors → Domestic-Oil crop growing Improved oil crop growing conditions enhance oil crop growth (Kirkegaard et al., 2018) Domestic- Oil crop growing factors → Domestic- Oil crop growing season Better growing factors can extend the oil crop growing season (Burnett, 2023) Domestic-Oil crop growing season → Domestic-Oil Crop Growing A longer growing season generally increases oil crop growing (Assefa et al., 2018) Domestic- Warmer Temperature →Domestic- Land use for oil crop growing Warmer temperatures can expand the amount of land suitable for farming in colder regions (Qian et al., 2023) Domestic-Land use for oil crop growing → Domestic-Oil crop growing More land allocated for oil crop growing directly increases the amount of oil crop growing (Qian et al., 2023) 241 Link Explanation Reference Domestic-Extreme weather events → Domestic Oil crop storage adequacy Extreme weather events can negatively impact oil crop storage adequacy by causing humidity and temperature fluctuations (Canola Council of Canada, n.d.; Misra et al., n.d.) Domestic-Extreme weather events → Domestic-Oil crop transport to vegetable oil extraction site Extreme weather events can disrupt oil crop transportation by causing delays, infrastructure damage, and increased transportation costs (Odionu, 2023) Domestic-Extreme weather events → Domestic-Vegetable oil storage adequacy Adverse weather can affect vegetable oil storage adequacy by influencing temperature control and moisture (Bailey & Shahidi, 2005) Domestic-Extreme weather events → Domestic-Vegetable oil transport to biodiesel production site Extreme weather events can disrupt vegetable oil transportation by causing delays, infrastructure damage, and increased transportation costs (Odionu, 2023) 242 Link Explanation Reference Domestic-Extreme weather events → Domestic-Biodiesel storage adequacy Extreme weather events can affect biodiesel storage adequacy by influencing temperature (Renewable Energy Group, n.d.) Domestic-Extreme weather events → Domestic-Biodiesel transport to distribution center Extreme weather can disrupt biodiesel transportation by causing delays, infrastructure damage, and increased transportation costs (Odionu, 2023) Domestic- Warmer Temperature → Domestic-Oil crop storage adequacy Warmer temperatures can negatively affect oil crop storage adequacy (Flakelar et al., 2017) Domestic- Warmer Temperature → Domestic-Vegetable oil storage adequacy Warmer temperatures can negatively affect vegetable oil storage adequacy by promoting oxidation and degradation (Flakelar et al., 2017) Domestic- Warmer Temperature → Domestic-Biodiesel storage adequacy Warmer temperatures can affect biodiesel storage adequacy by increasing the likelihood of microbial growth and oxidation (Bailey & Shahidi, 2005) Pressure category- Human and social environment 243 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Growing population → Domestic- Increased food needs A growing population increases the demand for food, leading to higher food needs (Zafiriou et al., 2023; Statistics Canada, 2022; The Canadian Press, 2023) Increased climate change → Domestic- Increased food needs Climate-related disruptions in the food system can diminish food security in Canada (Schnitter & Berry, 2019; The Canadian Press, 2023) Domestic- Increased food needs → Domestic- Land use for food production and animal feed Higher food needs require more land to be allocated for food production and animal feed (Zafiriou et al., 2023) Domestic- Increased food needs → Domestic- Alternative use of oil crop Increased food demand raises the volume of oil crops needed for alternative uses (Zafiriou et al., 2023) Domestic- Increased food needs → Domestic- Alternative use of vegetable oil Increased food demand also increases the volume of vegetable oil needed for alternative uses (Zafiriou et al., 2023) Domestic- Land use for food production and animal feed → Increased land use for food production and animal feed competes (Zafiriou et al., 2023) 244 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Land use for oil crop growing with the land available for oil crop growing Domestic- Growing population → Domestic- Increased urbanization A growing population drives the expansion of urban areas as more people move to cities for better opportunities, resulting in increased urbanization (National Geographic Society, 2022) Domestic- Increased urbanization → Domestic- Land use for urban areas Increased urbanization leads to more land being used for urban development in Canada (Zafiriou et al., 2023) Domestic- Land use for urban areas → Domestic- Land use for oil crop growing More land used for urban areas reduces the land available for growing oil crops (Brown, 2023) Domestic- Land use for urban areas → Domestic- Land use for food production and animal feed More land used for urban areas reduces the land available for food and animal feed production (Brown, 2023) Domestic- Public acceptance of biodiesel → Domestic- Biodiesel demand Higher public acceptance of biodiesel increases its consumption, and vice versa (Moula et al., 2017; Amin et al., 2017) 245 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Public acceptance of biodiesel → Domestic- Land use for oil crop growing Increased public acceptance of biodiesel encourages more land to be allocated for growing oil crops domestically to meet this demand, vice versa Domestic- Skilled labor for oil crop production → Domestic- Oil crop growing / Oil crop harvesting Skilled labor is required for the expansion of oil crop cultivation and proper harvesting (Canada Agricultural Human Resource Council, 2024) Domestic- Skilled labor for vegetable oil production → Domestic- Vegetable oil extraction Skilled labor is also needed for the expansion of vegetable oil extraction (Government of Canada, 2024) Domestic- Skilled labor for biodiesel production → Domestic- Biodiesel production Skilled labor is essential for the expansion of biodiesel production (U.S. Department of Energy, 2023) Domestic- Increased urbanization → Domestic- Skilled labor for oil crop growing and harvesting / With urban expansion, residents have more opportunities to be trained as a skilled workforce for oil crop cultivation and harvesting, vegetable (Better Canada Institute, 2021) 246 Link Explanation Reference Vegetable oil extraction / Biodiesel production oil extraction, and biodiesel production Pressure category- Production technology and infrastructures Domestic- Technological change on crop growing and harvesting → Domestic- New traits and varieties Research and development efforts lead to the creation of new crop traits and varieties (Yoosefzadeh-Najafabadi & Rajcan, 2023) Domestic- Technological change on crop growing and harvesting →Domestic- Fertilizers for crop growing Research and development can lead to improved fertilizers that enhance soil fertility and boost crop yields (Malhi et al., 2005) Domestic- Technological change on crop growing and harvesting → Domestic- Harvest condition monitoring and control Advances in research and development improve monitoring and control of harvest conditions, optimizing harvest timing and methods to increase efficiency and yields (Faraji et al., 2009; Assefa et al., 2018; Chen et al., 1992) 247 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- New traits and varieties → Domestic- Oil crop growing factors The development of new crop traits and varieties enhances resistance to pests, diseases, improving oil crop growing factors (Canola Council of Canada, n.d.; SoyCanada, n.d.; Polk, 2022) Domestic- Fertilizers for crop growing → Domestic- Oil crop growing factors The use of fertilizers enhances soil fertility and crop yields, positively impacting oil crop growth (Assefa et al., 2018; Malhi et al., 2005; Chen et al., 1992) Domestic- Harvest condition monitoring and control → Domestic- Oil crop harvesting Improved monitoring and control of harvest conditions optimize harvesting times and methods, increasing efficiency and yield (Elias & Copeland, 2001; Morrison et al., 1999; Haile et al., 2014)) Domestic- Harvest condition monitoring and control → Domestic- Skilled labor for oil crop production Monitoring and control harvest conditions requires skilled workers (Canada Agricultural Human Resource Council, 2024) 248 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Oil crop storage infrastructure → Domestic- Oil crop storage factors Enhanced oil crop storage infrastructure improves storage factors, helping to maintain the quality of oil crops (Sathya et al., 2009) Domestic- Oil crop storage infrastructure → Domestic- Oil crop storage duration Improved oil crop storage infrastructure increases the oil crop storage duration (Sathya et al., 2009) Domestic- Oil crop transportation infrastructure → Domestic- Oil crop transport to vegetable oil extraction site Enhanced transportation infrastructure reduces transit times and spoilage, improving the efficiency of oil crop transportation (Prentice, 2019) Domestic- Oil extraction technology development → Domestic- Vegetable oil extraction Advances in extraction technology improve the efficiency and yield of vegetable oil extraction from oil crops (Gaber et al., 2018) 249 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Oil extraction technology development → Domestic- Skilled labor for vegetable oil production To perform advanced oil extraction technology, skilled workers are needed (Government of Canada, 2024) Domestic- Vegetable oil transportation infrastructure → Domestic- Vegetable oil transport to biodiesel production site Enhanced transportation infrastructure reduces transit times, improving the efficiency of vegetable oil transportation (Prentice, 2019) Domestic- Vegetable oil storage infrastructure → Domestic- Vegetable oil storage adequacy Improved vegetable oil storage infrastructure enhances storage conditions, better maintaining vegetable oil quality during storage (Sun et al., 2014) Domestic- Vegetable oil storage infrastructure → Domestic- Vegetable oil storage capacity Improved vegetable oil storage infrastructure increases vegetable oil storage capacity (Hawrysh, 1990; Maszewska et al., 2018) 250 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Biodiesel production technology development →Domestic- Biodiesel production Advances in biodiesel production technology increase efficiency and yield (Soares Dias et al., 2022) Domestic- Biodiesel storage monitoring and control → Domestic- Biodiesel storage adequacy Effective monitoring and control of biodiesel storage adequacy help maintain optimal temperature, air exposure (Jakeria et al., 2014; Kouzu et al., 2009) Domestic- Biodiesel production technology development → Domestic- Skilled labor for biodiesel production Advanced production technology requires skilled labor (Government of Canada, 2024) Domestic- Biodiesel storage monitoring and control → Domestic- Skilled labor for biodiesel production Monitoring and controlling biodiesel storage adequacy require skilled labor (Government of Canada, 2024) 251 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Biodiesel transportation infrastructure → Domestic- Biodiesel transport to distribution center Enhanced transportation infrastructure reduces transit times, improving the efficiency of biodiesel transportation (McElroy, 2016) Pressures- Domestic and global biodiesel markets International- Oil crop production→ International- Oil crop stock Increased international production of oil crops can lead to higher global oil crop stock (Ates & Bukowski, 2023; U.S. Department of Agriculture, n.d.) International- Oil crop stock → Domestic- Oil crop exports The availability of international oil crop stock can influence domestic exports of oil crops (Canola Council of Canada, n.d.; U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2024) International- Oil crop stock→ Domestic- Oil crop imports The demand of oil crop in international markets can increased the domestic import volume (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2022) International- Oil crop stock→ International- Vegetable oil production Harvested oil crops are processed into vegetable oil in international markets (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2022) 252 Link Explanation Reference International- Vegetable oil production → International- Vegetable oil stock Oil crop extraction directly influence the stock of vegetable oil in international markets (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2022) International- Vegetable oil demand→ Domestic- Vegetable oil exports The availability of international vegetable oil stock can influence the demand of vegetable oil thus influence the volume of domestic exports (Canola Council of Canada, n.d.) International- Vegetable oil stock → Domestic- Vegetable oil imports Domestic markets may import more vegetable oil depending on the stock levels available internationally (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2024) International- Vegetable oil stock→ International- Biodiesel production Increased international vegetable oil stock could increase the volume of biodiesel produced internationally (Rosillo, 2009) International- Biodiesel production → International- Biodiesel Stock Biodiesel production in international markets contributes to the growth of international biodiesel stock (BioEnergyTimes, 2024) International- Biodiesel stock→ Domestic- Biodiesel exports The stock of biodiesel in international markets affects the international demand for biodiesel which influence (National Renewable Energy Laboratory, 2013) 253 Link Explanation Reference domestic exports as producers seek to meet global market needs International- Biodiesel stock → Domestic- Biodiesel imports Similar to vegetable oil, the level of biodiesel stock internationally determines the amount that can be imported into domestic markets / International- Biodiesel stock → International- Biodiesel consumption Also similar to vegetable oil, the available stock of biodiesel in international markets is consumed by global consumers / International- Biodiesel consumption → International- Biodiesel demand The international consumption rate of biodiesel drives the overall global demand for biodiesel (Statista, 2024) International- Biodiesel demand→ International- Vegetable oil demand Increased global demand for biodiesel raises the demand for vegetable oil (IEA, 2023) International- Vegetable oil demand → International- Oil crop demand Likewise, growing global demand for vegetable oil drives the global demand for oilseeds (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2024) 254 Link Explanation Reference International- Oil crop demand → International- Oil crop production Rising global demand for oilseeds encourages more extensive production efforts internationally (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2024) International- Oil crop demand → Domestic- Oil crop exports Increased international demand for oil crops leads to higher exports from the domestic market to satisfy global needs. (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2024) Domestic- Biodiesel demanded by other sectors → Domestic- Biodiesel consumed by other sectors Higher biodiesel demand from other sectors could lead to increased biodiesel consumption (National Resource Canada, 2019) Domestic- Biodiesel consumed by other sectors → Domestic- Biodiesel stock Increased biodiesel consumption by other sectors can reduce the overall biodiesel stock (National Resource Canada, 2019) Pressure category- Policy and regulatory framework Domestic-Policy and regulatory framework for crops → Domestic-Oil crop growing Supportive domestic policies and regulations for crops can promote increased crop cultivation (Rude, 2020; Zafiriou et al., 2023) 255 Link Explanation Reference Domestic-Policy and regulatory framework for crops → Domestic- Technological change on crop growing and harvesting Supporting domestic policies for crops can stimulate the development and adoption of advanced technologies for growing and harvesting canola, soybeans, and other oil crops (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, n.d.) Domestic-Policy and regulatory framework for crops → Domestic-Oil crop stock Domestic policies and regulations for crop quality can influence crop stocks (Government of Canada, 2024) Domestic-Policy and regulatory framework for crops → Domestic-Oil crop exports Policies supporting crop exports can lead to a reduction in domestic oil crop stock as more produce is allocated for international markets (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 2021) Domestic-Policy and regulatory framework for crops → Domestic- Oil crop imports Domestic policy and regulatory framework for crops can influence the volume of oil crop imports, potentially facilitating or restricting imports based on compliance with domestic standards and trade policies (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2018) 256 Link Explanation Reference Domestic-Policy and regulatory framework for vegetable oils → Domestic- Vegetable oil production Supportive domestic policies and regulations for vegetable oils can promote their production expansion Domestic-Policy and regulatory framework for vegetable oils → Domestic- Vegetable oil exports Domestic policy and regulation on vegetable oils can influence vegetable oil stocks in Canada (Government of Alberta, 2020) Domestic-Policy and regulatory framework for vegetable oils → Domestic- Vegetable oil imports Policies and regulations in the domestic market regarding vegetable oils can influence the volume of imports (Global Affairs Canada, 2021) Increased climate change → Domestic-Policy and regulatory framework for biofuels The growing impact of climate change drives the need for more stringent domestic policies and regulatory frameworks for biofuels to address environmental concerns and reduce GHG emissions (Jeswani et al., 2020) 257 Link Explanation Reference Domestic-Policy and regulatory framework for biofuels → Domestic- Biodiesel demanded by marine operators/Biodiesel demanded by other sectors Supportive domestic policies for biodiesel encourage its adoption, driving demand among marine operators and other sectors (Voegele, 2023; Saini et al., 2021) Domestic-Policy and regulatory framework for biofuels → Domestic- Biodiesel production technology development Policies supporting biodiesel can promote investment in technology, enhancing production efficiency and capacity (Advanced Biofuels Canada, 2023) Domestic-Policy and regulatory framework for biofuels → Domestic- Biodiesel transportation & distribution Domestic policy and regulatory frameworks for biofuels can lead to the development and enhancement of transportation and distribution infrastructure for biodiesel (Advanced Biofuels Canada, 2023) Domestic-Policy and regulatory framework for biofuels → Domestic- Biodiesel production Supportive policies can directly incentivize biodiesel production, increasing supply to meet growing demand (Bakx, 2024) 258 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Policy and regulation on biofuels → Domestic- Renewable diesel demanded by marine operators Strong biofuel policies increase renewable diesel demand, especially among marine operators focused on reducing emissions (Canada Coast Guard, 2023) Increased climate change → Domestic-Policy and regulatory framework for other alternative fuels Climate change pressures encourage the development of stricter domestic policies for alternative fuels, promoting their adoption (Jeswani et al., 2020; Government of Canada, n.d.) Domestic-Policy and regulatory framework for other alternative fuels → Domestic- Biodiesel demanded by marine operators /Biodiesel demanded by other sectors Policies supporting alternative fuels may influence biodiesel demand, either by increasing competition or fostering a diversified fuel strategy (MeRLIN, 2022) Domestic- Policy and regulation on other alternative fuels - Domestic- Other alternative fuels demand Policies promoting alternative fuels drive demand as industries and consumers shift toward cleaner energy sources (Government of Canada, n.d.) 259 Link Explanation Reference Policy and regulatory framework for crops by international organizations → Policy and regulatory framework for crops by individual countries International organizations set overarching guidelines for crop-related policies, which individual countries adapt to suit their contexts (Josling, 1985) Policy and regulatory framework for crops by individual countries → Domestic-Policy and regulatory framework for crops International crop policies set benchmarks that influence domestic policymakers, encouraging alignment with global standards (Josling, 1985) Policy and regulatory framework for crops by individual countries → Domestic- Oil crop exports International trade policies and regulations impact domestic oil crop exports by trade agreements, tariffs, and quality standards (United States Department of Agriculture, 2023; Government of Canada, 2022) Policy and regulatory framework for crops by individual countries → Domestic- Oil crop imports International trade policies on vegetable oils influence domestic import volumes and sourcing (United States Department of Agriculture, 2023; Government of Canada, 2022) 260 Link Explanation Reference Policy and regulatory framework for vegetable oils by international organizations → Policy and regulatory framework for vegetable oils by individual countries International standards for vegetable oils guide national policies on production, trade, and processing (Ibanez et al., 2020) Policy and regulatory framework for vegetable oils by international organizations → Domestic-Policy and regulatory framework for vegetable oils Domestic policies on vegetable oils are influenced by international standards, ensuring alignment with global markets (Ibanez et al., 2020) Policy and regulatory framework for vegetable oils by individual countries → Domestic- Vegetable oil exports International policies and regulations affect domestic vegetable oil exports through trade agreements, tariffs, and quality standards (Government of Canada, 2022) Policy and regulatory framework for vegetable oils by individual countries → International trade policies on vegetable oils influence domestic import volumes and sourcing (Government of Canada, 2022) 261 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Vegetable oil imports Increased climate change → Policy and regulatory framework for biofuels by international organizations & Policy and regulatory framework for biofuels by individual countries Climate change encourages the creation of stringent international biofuel policies, which cascade into individual country regulations (IMO, 2023) Policy and regulatory framework for biofuels by individual countries → International- Biodiesel demand Supportive policies at the national level can boost international demand for biodiesel, aligning global markets with sustainability goals (The European Union, n.d.; U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2023) Policy and regulatory framework for biofuels by individual countries → Domestic- Biodiesel exports National policies on biodiesel influence exports through trade agreements, tariffs, and incentives, affecting global supply (Saini et al., 2021) Policy and regulatory framework for biofuels by International biofuel regulations impact domestic biodiesel imports, (Flash et al., 2023) 262 Link Explanation Reference individual countries → Domestic- Biodiesel imports shaping trade flows and compliance requirements Increased climate change → International- Policy and regulatory framework for other alternative fuels Climate change prompts more rigorous international regulations for alternative fuels to promote global environmental sustainability (IMO, n.d.; IMO, 2023) International- Policy and regulatory framework for other alternative fuels → Domestic- Policy and regulatory framework on other alternative fuels International policies influence the development of domestic alternative fuel regulations, aligning national frameworks with global goals (IMO, n.d.) 263 Appendix E Links of Renewable Diesel CLD Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat collection → Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat stock Increased collection of waste oil and animal fat leads to a higher stock (GlobalData, 2023; Tridge, n.d.) Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat exports → Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat stock Higher exports of waste oil and animal fat reduce the domestic stock, limiting availability for local use (OEC, n.d.) Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat imports → Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat stock Increased imports of waste oil and animal fat boost the domestic stock, supplementing local collection efforts (Tridge, n.d.) Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat storage adequacy → Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat stock Optimal storage adequacy preserves the quality of waste oil and animal fat (Phillips, 2023) Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat storage capacity → Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat stock Increased storage capacity allows for a higher stock of waste oil and animal fat, supporting continuous supply (Phillips, 2023) Domestic- Alternative use of waste oil and animal fat → Alternative uses, such as lubricants or other products, reduce the stock (Joshi et al., 2023; Digeoris, 2021) 264 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat stock available for renewable diesel production Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat stock → Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat transport to site A higher stock of waste oil and animal fat leads to increased transport to rendering sites (Redux, n.d.; EcoZero, n.d.) Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat transport to rendering site → Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat rendering Increased transport of waste oil and animal fat to the rendering site facilitates the rendering process (GlobalData, 2023) Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat rendering → Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow stock Higher rendering volumes of waste oil and animal fat increase the stock of yellow grease and tallow (GlobalData, 2023; Han et al., 2013) Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow exports → Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow stock Higher exports of yellow grease and tallow reduce their domestic stock (Watts, 2023; Tridge, n.d.) Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow imports → Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow stock Increased imports of yellow grease and tallow boost their domestic stock (Tridge, n.d.) Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow storage adequacy → Similar to vegetable oil, proper storage adequacy help maintain the quality of yellow grease and tallow / 265 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow stock Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow storage capacity → Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow stock Similar to vegetable oil, enhanced storage capacity supports a higher stock of yellow grease and tallow / Domestic- Alternative use of yellow grease and tallow → Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow stock Alternative uses, such as feeding fats, decrease the stock available for renewable diesel production (Ockerman & Basu, 2024) Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow stock → Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow transport to renewable diesel production site Higher stock levels increase the transport of yellow grease and tallow to renewable diesel production sites (Targray, n.d.) Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow transport to renewable diesel production site → Domestic- Renewable diesel production Increased transport of yellow grease and tallow supports higher renewable diesel production (Government of Canada, 2023) 266 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Renewable diesel production → Domestic- Renewable diesel stock Higher production volumes increase renewable diesel stock, supporting greater availability (U.S. Department of Energy, n.d.) Domestic- Renewable diesel exports → Domestic- Renewable diesel stock ncreased exports of renewable diesel reduce its domestic stock (United States Department of Agriculture, 2023) Domestic- Renewable diesel imports → Domestic- Renewable diesel stock Imports of renewable diesel boost the domestic stock, balancing supply gap (Biodiesel Magazine, 2023) Domestic- Renewable diesel storage adequacy → Domestic- Renewable diesel stock Optimal storage adequacy is crucial for maintaining the quality of renewable diesel stock over time (Western Global, n.d.) Domestic- Renewable diesel storage capacity → Domestic- Renewable diesel stock Expanded storage capacity enables a larger stock of renewable diesel / Domestic- Renewable diesel stock → Domestic- Renewable diesel transport to distribution center A higher renewable diesel stock increases its transport to distribution centers for consumption (4Refuel, n.d.) 267 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Renewable diesel transport to distribution center → Domestic- Renewable diesel consumption An increased volume of renewable diesel in distribution centers enhances its availability for consumption (Biodiesel Magazine, 2023) Domestic- Renewable diesel consumption → Domestic- Renewable diesel demand Increased consumption directly fulfills renewable diesel demand (Ahmand & Zhang, 2020) Domestic- Renewable diesel demand → Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow demand Higher demand for renewable diesel increases demand for yellow grease and tallow (Yasinski, 2022) Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow demand → Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat demand Higher demand for yellow grease and tallow increases demand for waste oil and animal fat (Yasinski, 2022) Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat demand → Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat collection (feedback loop) Higher demand for waste oil and animal fat increases their collection (Foo et al., 2022) Pressure category- Natural environment Increased climate change → Domestic- Extreme weather events Increased climate change leads to more frequent and severe extreme weather events (NASA, n.d.) 268 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Extreme weather events → Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat collection Extreme weather events can disrupt or delay the collection of waste oil and animal fat, reducing efficiency and the overall volume collected (Odionu, 2023) Domestic- Extreme weather events → Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat storage adequacy Extreme weather events can negatively impact the storage conditions for waste oil and animal fat, potentially leading to spoilage or loss (Phillips, 2023) Domestic- Extreme weather events → Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat transport to rendering site Extreme weather events can disrupt transportation routes and schedules, delaying or reducing the transport of waste oil and animal fat to rendering sites (Odionu, 2023) Domestic- Extreme weather events → Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow storage adequacy Extreme weather events can worse the feedstock storage conditions, affecting their quality and availability / Domestic- Extreme weather events → Domestic- Yellow Extreme weather events can cause delays or interruptions in the (Odionu, 2023) 269 Link Explanation Reference grease and tallow transport to renewable diesel production site transport of yellow grease and tallow to renewable diesel production sites Domestic- Extreme weather events → Domestic- Renewable diesel storage adequacy Extreme weather events can adversely affect the storage of renewable diesel, leading to potential degradation or loss. (Biobor, n.d.) Domestic- Extreme weather events → Domestic- Renewable diesel transportation & distribution Extreme weather events can disrupt the transportation and distribution networks for renewable diesel, causing delays or shortages in supply. (Odionu, 2023) Pressure category- Human and social environment Domestic- Growing population →Domestic- Increased food needs A growing population increases the demand for food, leading to higher food needs (Statistics Canada, 2022; The Canadian Press, 2023) Domestic- Increased climate change → Domestic- Increased food needs Climate-related disruptions in the food system can diminish food security in Canada (Schnitter & Berry, 2019; The Canadian Press, 2023) 270 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Growing population → Domestic- Increased urbanization A growing population leads to the expansion of urban areas as more people move to cities for better opportunities, resulting in increased urbanization (National Geographic Society, 2022) Domestic- Increased food needs → Domestic- Increased waste oil and animal fat As food needs increase, the amount of waste oil and animal fat also rises (Abdulla et al., 2013) Domestic- Increased food needs → Domestic- Alternative use of yellow grease and tallow Higher food demands may lead to a greater volume of yellow grease and tallow being used for alternative purposes (Ockerman & Basu, 2024) Domestic- Increased waste oil and animal fat → Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat collection An increase in waste oil and animal fat production drives more volume of waste oil and fat to be collected (Abdulla et al., 2013) Domestic- Public awareness of waste recycling → Domestic- Waste oil and fat collection Greater public awareness of waste recycling can enhance the collection of waste oil and animal fat by increasing availability and participation (Wallace et al., 2017) 271 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Increased urbanization → Domestic- Skilled labor for waste oil and animal fat collection / Skilled labor for waste oil and animal fat rendering Skilled labor for renewable diesel production Urban expansion provides more opportunities for residents to be trained as skilled labor in waste oil collection, rendering, and renewable diesel production (Better Canada Institute, 2021) Domestic- Public acceptance of renewable diesel → Domestic- Renewable diesel demand Greater public acceptance of renewable diesel fuels leads to increased demand, and vice versa (Moula et al., 2017; Amin et al., 2017) Pressure category- Production technology and infrastructures Domestic- Waste products transportation infrastructure → Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat collection Improved waste product transportation infrastructure enhances the efficiency and volume of waste oil and animal fat collection (Redux, n.d.; EcoZero, n.d.; Daringli, n.d.) 272 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Waste products transportation infrastructure → Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat transport to rendering site Efficient transportation systems for waste products improve the reliability and speed of transporting waste oil and animal fat to rendering sites (Darlingii, n.d.) Domestic- Rendering technology development → Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat rendering Advances in rendering technology improve the efficiency and output of the waste oil and animal fat rendering process (Mannu et al., 2020) Domestic- Rendering technology development → Domestic- Skilled labor for rendering Development in rendering technology increases the demand for skilled labor to operate and maintain the new technologies / Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow transportation intrastructure → Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow transport to renewable diesel production site Improved transportation infrastructure for yellow grease and tallow facilitates more efficient and timely transport to renewable diesel production sites (Darlingii, n.d.) Domestic- Renewable diesel production technology Technological advancements in renewable diesel production increase the efficiency and overall output of (U.S. Department of Energy, n.d.) 273 Link Explanation Reference development → Domestic- Renewable diesel production renewable diesel production processes Domestic- Renewable diesel production technology development → Domestic- Skilled labor for renewable diesel production Developments in renewable diesel production technology drive the need for skilled labor to oversee and optimize production operations Domestic- Renewable diesel transportation infrastructure → Domestic- Renewable diesel transportation & Distribution Enhanced transportation infrastructure for renewable diesel improves the efficiency and reach of its transportation and distribution networks (Natural Resources Canada, 2012) Pressures- Domestic and global renewable diesel markets International waste oil and animal fat collection → International waste oil and animal fat stock Similar to domestic collection, international waste oil and animal fat are collected and stored for further processing or export (Kristiana et al., 2022) International waste oil and animal fat stock → Domestic waste oil and animal fat exports The stock levels of waste oil and animal fat in international markets determine the demand for domestic exports (Pandy & Kondalamahanty, 2023) 274 Link Explanation Reference International waste oil and animal fat stock → Domestic waste oil and animal fat imports International stock levels of waste oil and animal fat can influence the amount imported into domestic markets (Pandy & Kondalamahanty, 2023) International waste oil and animal fat stock → International waste oil and animal fat rendering Collected waste oil and animal fat are processed into yellow grease and tallow in international markets (Swisher, n.d.) International waste oil and animal fat rendering → International yellow grease and tallow stock Rendering of international waste oil and animal fat directly increases the stock of yellow grease and tallow in international markets (Swisher, n.d.) International yellow grease and tallow stock→ Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow exports Similar with the example of vegetable oil, the availability of international yellow grease and tallow stock can influence demand of domestic exports / International yellow grease and tallow demand→ Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow exports International demand for yellow grease and tallow impacts the volume of exports from domestic markets (IndexBox Inc, 2024) 275 Link Explanation Reference International yellow grease and tallow stock→ Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow imports The availability of international yellow grease and tallow stock can influence the volume of exports to domestic markets (Downing, 2022) International yellow grease and tallow stock→ International renewable diesel production Increased stock of yellow grease and tallow globally drives higher volumes of renewable diesel production (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2024) International renewable diesel production → International renewable diesel stock Production of renewable diesel in international markets contributes to the growth of global renewable diesel stock (BIC Alliance, 2022) International renewable diesel stock → Domestic- Renewable diesel exports The stock of renewable diesel in international markets influences the demand for domestic exports / International renewable diesel stock → Domestic- Renewable diesel imports The level of renewable diesel stock internationally determines the amount that can be imported into domestic markets International Renewable Diesel Stock → International renewable diesel consumption The available stock of renewable diesel in international markets is consumed globally (BIC Alliance, 2022) 276 Link Explanation Reference International renewable diesel consumption → International demand for renewable diesel The consumption rate of renewable diesel drives global demand (BIC Alliance, 2022) International demand for renewable diesel → International demand for yellow grease and tallow Rising global demand for renewable diesel boosts the demand for yellow grease and tallow as primary feedstocks (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2024) International demand for yellow grease and tallow → International demand for waste oil and animal fat As the demand for yellow grease and tallow grows, so does the need for waste oil and animal fat to produce them (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2024) International demand for waste oil and animal fat → International- Waste oil and fat collection Rising global demand for waste oil and animal fat encourages more extensive collection efforts internationally (European Federation for Transport and Environment, 2024) Domestic- Renewable diesel demanded by other sectors → Domestic- Renewable diesel consumed by other sectors Higher renewable diesel demanded by other sectors could increase their renewable diesel consumption / 277 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Renewable diesel consumed by other sectors → Domestic- Renewable diesel stock Increased renewable diesel consumption by other sectors can decrease the overall renewable diesel stock / Pressure category- Policy and regulatory framework Domestic- Policy and regulation on waste products → Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat collection Domestic policies and regulations, such as mandates for waste oil collection or recycling incentives, directly affect the volume of waste oil and animal fat collected (Zhang et al., 2014) Domestic- Policy and regulation on waste products → Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat exports Domestic regulations on waste products can influence the volume of waste oil and animal fat available for export (Government of Fujian Province, 2024) Domestic- Policy and regulation on waste products → Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat imports Domestic policies can also impact the amount of waste oil and animal fat imported (The Economic Times, 2023) 278 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Policy and regulation on waste products → Domestic- Alternative use of waste oil and animal fat Regulations on the use of waste oil and animal fat can significantly impact the overall stock of these materials (GlobalData, 2023) Domestic- Policy and regulation on waste products → Domestic- Waste products transportation infrastructure Supporting policies and regulations on waste products drive the development of transportation infrastructure to handle waste more effectively (City of Vancouver, n.d.) Domestic- Policy and regulation on yellow grease and tallow → Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow production Domestic policies regarding the production and use of yellow grease and tallow, such as sustainability standards or production incentives, directly impact domestic production levels (North American Renderers Association, n.d.) Domestic- Policy and regulation on yellow grease and tallow → Domestic- Rendering technology development Policies and regulations on yellow grease and tallow drive the development of rendering technology to meet regulatory standards and improve efficiency / 279 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Policy and regulation on yellow grease and tallow → Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow exports Policies that regulate yellow grease and tallow domestically can determine the quantity available for export / Domestic- Policy and regulation on yellow grease and tallow → Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow imports Domestic regulations on yellow grease and tallow can influence import levels (The Economic Times, 2023) Domestic- Policy and regulation on yellow grease and tallow → Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow transportation infrastructure Regulations specifically targeting yellow grease and tallow promote the development of infrastructure to transport these materials efficiently / Increased climate change → Domestic- Policy and regulation on biofuels The growing impact of climate change prompts the development of a more stringent domestic policy and regulatory framework for biofuels to mitigate environmental effects (Jeswani et al., 2020) Domestic- Policy and regulation on biofuels → Domestic- Renewable diesel production Domestic policies such as subsidies, tax incentives, or mandates for (Government of Canada, 2023) 280 Link Explanation Reference biofuel usage directly influence the production levels within the country Domestic- Policy and regulation on biofuels → Domestic- Renewable diesel production technology development Policies supporting renewable diesel can promote investment in technology, enhancing production efficiency and capacity (Advanced Biofuels Canada, 2023) Domestic- Policy and regulation on biofuels → Domestic- Renewable diesel exports Supporting policies on renewable diesel can boost exports by making domestically produced renewable diesel more competitive on the international market (The Economic Times, 2023) Domestic- Policy and regulation on biofuels → Domestic- Renewable diesel imports Policies and regulations in the domestic market regarding biofuels can influence the volume of imports (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2023) Domestic- Policy and regulation on biofuels → Domestic- Renewable diesel transportation & distribution Policies drive the development of infrastructure for renewable diesel transportation and distribution, ensuring efficient supply chains (Advanced Biofuels Canada, 2023) 281 Link Explanation Reference Domestic- Policy and regulation on biofuels → Domestic- Renewable diesel demanded by marine operators Stronger policies and regulations on biofuels increase the demand for renewable diesel by marine operators (Canada Coast Guard, 2023) Domestic- Policy and regulation on biofuels → Domestic- Renewable diesel demanded by other sectors Policies promoting biofuels boost demand for renewable diesel across various sectors (Transport Canada, 2022) Increased climate change → Domestic- Policy and regulation on other alternative fuels Climate change prompts the development of stringent domestic policies and regulations for alternative fuels to address environmental challenges (Jeswani et al., 2020; Government of Canada, n.d.) Domestic- Policy and regulation on other alternative fuels → Domestic- Other alternative fuels demand Policies promoting alternative fuels increase their demand as consumers and industries shift towards cleaner energy sources (Government of Canada, n.d.) Domestic-Policy and regulatory framework for other alternative fuels → Domestic- Biodiesel demanded by marine operators Policies supporting other alternative fuels can influence renewable diesel demand, either by promoting (MeRLIN, 2022) 282 Link Explanation Reference /Biodiesel demanded by other sectors competition or encouraging a mixed fuel strategy Policy and regulation on waste products by international organizations → Policy and regulation on waste products by individual countries International organizations establish guidelines and standards, which are adapted by individual countries to shape their waste product policies / Policy and regulation on waste products by individual countries → International- Waste oil and animal fat collection Regulations at the national level impact waste oil and animal fat collection efforts in global markets, influencing international supply chains (The International Council on Clean Transportation, 2022) Policy and regulation on waste products by individual countries → Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat exports International policies can influence the amount of waste oil and animal fat exported to the global market (The International Council on Clean Transportation, 2022) Policy and regulation on waste products by individual countries International policies can also influence the amount of waste oil and (The International Council on Clean 283 Link Explanation Reference → Domestic- Waste oil and animal fat imports animal fat imported into the domestic market Transportation, 2022) Policy and regulation on yellow grease and tallow by international organizations → Policy and regulation on yellow grease and tallow by individual countries International regulations guide national policies for yellow grease and tallow production and use / Policy and regulation on yellow grease and tallow by individual countries → International- Yellow grease and tallow production National policies influence the global production of yellow grease and tallow, impacting supply and demand dynamics (The International Council on Clean Transportation, 2022) Policy and regulation on yellow grease and tallow by individual countries → Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow exports Policies regulating yellow grease and tallow can affect the volume exported to global markets, meeting international demand (The International Council on Clean Transportation, 2022) Policy and regulation on yellow grease and tallow by individual countries → Domestic- Yellow grease and tallow imports International policies encourage exports of yellow grease and tallow, shaping domestic import volumes (The International Council on Clean Transportation, 2022) 284 Link Explanation Reference Increased climate change → Policy and regulation on biofuels by international organizations The growing impact of climate change prompts the development of a more stringent international policy and regulatory framework for biofuels to mitigate environmental effects (IMO, 2023) Increased climate change → Policy and regulation on biofuels by individual countries Climate change drives the creation of stricter international biofuel policies to address global environmental challenges (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2023) Policy and regulation on biofuels by international organizations → Policy and regulation on biofuels by individual countries International policies set benchmarks for biofuels, which individual countries adapt into their regulatory frameworks (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2023) Policy and regulation on biofuels by individual countries → International- Renewable diesel production National policies aligned with international agreements boost renewable diesel production globally (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2023) 285 Link Explanation Reference Policy and regulation on biofuels by individual countries → International- Renewable diesel demand Policies promoting biofuels increase global demand for renewable diesel through mandates and incentives (Pandey & Kondalamahanty, 2023) Policy and regulation on biofuels by individual countries → Domestic- Renewable diesel exports International regulations shape the volume of renewable diesel exported from domestic markets (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, 2023; Biodiesel Magazine, 2022) Policy and regulation on biofuels by individual countries → Domestic- Renewable diesel imports International biofuel policies also impact the import volumes of renewable diesel into domestic markets (U.S. Department of Agriculture, n.d.) Increased climate change → International- Policy and regulation on other alternative fuels Climate change drives the development of stringent international policies for alternative fuels to promote global environmental sustainability (IMO, n.d.; IMO, 2023) International- Policy and regulatory framework for other alternative fuels → Domestic- International policies influence domestic alternative fuel regulations, (IMO, n.d.) 286 Link Explanation Reference Policy and regulatory framework on other alternative fuels aligning them with global standards and practices 287 Appendix F Interview Outlines Greeting: Thank you for agreeing to speak to me today. I’m conducting this interview to better understand the alternative fuel supply chain in Canada from the perspective of marine operators, including their biofuel trials, the commercialized biofuel supply chains, and concerns regarding the consistent alternative fuel supply in different Canadian regions. Unless you give me permission to use your name, title, and or quotes in future communications and publications resulting from this research, we will take actions to protect your confidentiality related to your participation today. For example, if you request confidentiality, you will not be identified by name in the publications, during the interview, or in transcripts. Electronic interview data will be stored on UBC provided analytical software on an encrypted and password protected UBC computer and on the cloud on the UBC zoom or Teams account. Have you had enough time to review the consent form I provided to you and do you have any questions about it or about this process before we begin? Your participation is entirely voluntary, and you may refuse to participate or withdraw from the study at any time during this interview. You may also refuse to answer any specific questions. With your permission I would like to record the interview. May I do that now? [If participant consents, I will turn on the recording device, if participant declines then I will take notes by hand instead]. Please note: As a semi-structured interview, this schedule contains the main themes of the survey not an exhaustive list of questions to be posed. For example, general prompts such as “Could you please elaborate a bit on that?” are not included and topics raised by the interviewee 288 may be pursued. A range of prompts are listed beneath each main question, which may be drawn upon by the interview in response to the interviewee contributions. Theme 1: Understanding the interviewees role To start out, I ‘d like to better understand your role in participating alternative fuel related projects or works, can you please tell me: - formal role at your current or previous organization? - How long have you been, or were you, in that role? - What do you see your current or previous organization’s role in the marine sector to be – particularly how it relates to alternative fuel transformation? Theme 2: Understanding the alternative fuel transformation projects - Have you worked on or collaborated with marine operators on alternative fuel projects, especially biofuels, in Canada? If it’s confidential, you don’t have to share the project or company name. - Can you talk about the project and the marine operators involved? - include the primary aim of the project, the marine operators’ primary business, and their operational areas in Canada. - Have your organization or the involved marine operators set any goals regarding alternative fuel transformation? Theme 3: Understanding the current biofuel implementation in Canada - Is your organization or the involved marine operators have conducted or are considering any biofuel trials? Have they tested or plan to test biodiesel or renewable diesel? Why would they like to do the trials? 289 - Can you specify the supply chain for the biofuels used or planned to be used in these tests? Any third-party involved in supplying the biofuels? - Are they using or plan to use any imported fuels? If so, why choose domestic or imported fuels? How do they balance the additional costs of using biofuels compared to conventional fuels? Theme 4: Understanding the primary concerns or vulnerable points regarding biofuel supply in Canada - What are the primary factors driving the marine operator’s interest in adopting biofuels? (e.g., regulatory compliance, corporate sustainability goals, cost considerations, customer demand) - Can you list some of the challenges or they met or concerns they expect to have regarding biofuel supply? (For example, food/feedstock competition, domestic or international fuel supply, seasonal supply, public acceptance, policy or regulations, etc.) - How do supply chain disruptions impact the marine operator’s business operations? Theme 5: Concluding thoughts and looking ahead to next research steps -Do you have any final thoughts that you haven’t had a chance to express yet or are there any questions I didn’t ask that you would think are useful to ask in the future? Theme 6: Confirmation of preferences related to participation Finally, before we go, I just want to ensure that I understand your preferences related to your participation today. -Would you like your participation today to remain confidential? -May I include direct quotes from your interview in publications or other communications arising from this research? 290 -Would you like the quote attributed to you or for your connection to the quote to remain confidential? -May I reach out to you again for clarification, to show you drafts of papers if they include directs quotes from you, or to offer opportunities to participate in other aspects of this research? Thank you for your participation today. Please remember that you can always reach out to me or another member of the team if you have any questions about this study and your participation in it. The contact information you need is provided on the consent form you have previously received. Your contributions are highly valued as we work towards developing an alternative fuel supply chain vulnerability framework that captures the primary vulnerable points for various marine operators in Canada. 291 Appendix G Other Policy and Regulatory Frameworks Pressure Biodiesel Supply Chain Impact of Domestic and International Policy and Regulatory Framework for Oil Crops on Domestic Oil Crop Production Supportive domestic policies and regulations for crops can significantly promote oil crop production. For instance, Canada’s Business Risk Management Programs encourage producers to expand crop production and optimize land use through various mechanisms (Rude, 2020). These programs include AgriInvest, a savings-matching account to stabilize farm income; AgriStability, which provides deficiency payments triggered by farm income margins; AgriInsure, offering production and crop insurance; and AgriRecovery, a disaster assistance program. These measures create a safety support for producers, encouraging the expansion of oil crop cultivation. Supporting domestic policy for crops can encourage the technology development for oil crop growing. Programs such as the Sustainable Canadian Agricultural Partnership brings together federal, provincial and territorial governments with a $3.5-billion, 5-year agreement to strengthen and grow Canada’s agricultural sector (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 2023). This initiative supports innovation in the breeding and production of oil crops like canola and soybean, promoting productivity and increasing the availability of oil crops for vegetable oil extraction. Impact of Domestic and International Policy and Regulatory Framework for Oil Crops on Domestic Oil Crop Stock Domestic policies and regulations for crop quality can influence crop stocks. Domestic regulations on Canadian grains enhance crop stock quality by setting quality and cleanliness 292 standards. The Canada Grain Regulations specifically regulate crop standards for quality, cleanliness, and maximum limits of damage, which helps maintain the quality of crop stocks (Government of Canada, 2024a). These regulations help maintain the quality of oil crop stocks, supporting the domestic export and consumption of oil crops. Supportive domestic policies regarding crop exports can decrease domestic oil crop stocks by encouraging higher export volumes. For instance, in 2021, Canada’s Minister of Agriculture and Agri-Food announced a $1.8 million investment in the Canola Council of Canada under the AgriMarketing Program, designed to boost the country’s canola exports (Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada, 2021). Increased exports can subsequently reduce domestic oil crop stock, particularly in markets where demand for canola seed is high. Domestic policies regulating oil crop imports also play a crucial role in influencing the volume of imports and, consequently, the domestic availability of oil crops. These policies can impose restrictions or facilitate imports based on trade and safety standards. For instance, certain pesticides approved for use in the U.S. are not registered in Canada, leading to zero-tolerance regulations that may limit the quantity and types of crops imported from the U.S. into Canada (U.S. Department of Agriculture, 2018). These regulatory differences can affect the overall volume of oil crop imports, influencing the domestic availability of oil crops for biofuel production. International policies significantly influence domestic oil crop exports and imports through trade agreements and regulations. For example, the reinstatement of Canadian canola exports to China after a three-year suspension is expected to substantially boost export volumes (United States Department of Agriculture, 2023). Additionally, agreements like the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership provide Canadian oil 293 crops preferential access to global markets, including tariff reductions that facilitate increased exports (Government of Canada, 2022). Similarly, the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement ensures duty-free access for agricultural products traded between the U.S. and Canada, encouraging the import of oilseeds from U.S. producers (Government of Canada, 2020a). Impact of Domestic and International Policy and Regulatory Framework for Vegetable Oil on Domestic Vegetable Oil Production Domestic regulations on vegetable oil standards ensure high-quality production, making Canadian vegetable oils competitive in both domestic and international markets. Canada’s Food and Drug Regulations specifically regulate the quality of vegetable oils, such as canola and soybean oil, by setting standards for oilseed types, relative density, acid value, peroxide value, and requiring proper labeling for all vegetable oil products (Government of Canada, 2024c). These regulations monitor high production standards, ensuring Canadian vegetable oils meet market requirements. Impact of Domestic and International Policy and Regulatory Framework for Vegetable Oil on Domestic Vegetable Oil Stock Domestic policies for vegetable oil can influence oil exports by reducing domestic stock. For example, a significant portion of canola oil produced in Canada is destined for international markets. Approximately 40% of Canada’s canola oil production is exported (Government of Alberta, 2020). Policies that support this export can reduce domestic oil stocks, leaving less oil for domestic markets Domestic policies also affect vegetable oil imports. For example, the Canada-Indonesia Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement of 2022 seeks to remove or reduce tariff and 294 non-tariff barriers to facilitate trade. Currently, a tariff of up to 6% is applied to palm oil imports from Indonesia. If the agreement lead to reduced tariffs, palm oil imports into Canada may increase, influencing the domestic supply of vegetable oils (Government of Canada, 2021). Despite Canadian canola and soybean oils are export-oriented, policy for other oil crops can still impact the overall stock of vegetable oil available for biodiesel production. The export of Canadian vegetable oil is similarly impacted by international trade agreements, which grants Canadian producers’ preferential access to global markets. Reduced tariffs, such as from the Trans-Pacific Partnership, for canola and soybean oil enhance export competitiveness, further strengthening Canada’s position in international vegetable oil markets. Likewise, international policies can impact the import of vegetable oils into Canada. Similarly with the export, the Trans-Pacific Partnership can also reduce costs for imports and allowing for greater diversification of Canada’s oil supply. 295 Appendix H Other Policy and Regulatory Frameworks Pressure Renewable Diesel Supply Chain Impact of Domestic and International Policy and Regulatory Framework for Waste Products on Domestic Waste Cooking Oil and Animal Fat Collection and Transportation Domestic policies and regulations, such as mandates for waste oil collection or incentives for recycling, directly influence the amount of waste cooking oil and animal fat collected domestically. While Canada currently lacks comprehensive government policies on waste oil and fat, the U.S. provides a useful model. For example, the U.S. offers a sales subsidy of 50 cents per gallon for waste cooking oil, which encourages waste cooking oil collection (H. Zhang et al., 2014). Additionally, policies or regulations that restrict the disposal of waste oil and animal fat domestically can also promote waste oil recycling. Japan, for example, diverts waste cooking oil by recycling it at high prices (H. Zhang et al., 2014). Drawing from these successful international models, Canada could enhance its waste recycling policies to support a stable supply of raw materials for renewable diesel production. Domestic policies and regulations supporting waste products can also encourage the development of transportation infrastructure specifically for waste oil management. For example, Vancouver’s Zero Waste 2040 Strategic Plan promotes waste recycling, which has led to investments in the city’s recycling infrastructure (City of Vancouver, n.d.). Although this plan does not directly target waste oil, it sets a precedent for infrastructure development that could benefit waste oil collection. Currently, Canada lacks a standardized system for waste oil recycling, as municipalities handle collection independently, resulting in varied practices and 296 infrastructure. However, policy support and the growing demand for renewable diesel feedstocks are prompting efforts to expand and unify transportation and recycling infrastructure for waste oil, aligning with production needs. Impact of Domestic and International Policy and Regulatory Framework for Waste Products on Domestic Waste Cooking Oil and Animal Fat Stock Domestic regulations on waste products can influence the volume of waste oil and animal fat available for export. Although there is currently a lack of specific policies on waste oil and fat exports in Canada, China, as a major waste cooking oil exporter, has implemented supportive policies. These include a 70% value-added tax refund and a 13% export tax refund, which have significantly encouraged the export of waste cooking oil from China (Government of Fujian Province, 2024). A similar approach could influence export volumes in Canada as well. Domestic policies can also impact the amount of waste oil and animal fat imported. Although there is limited information regarding Canadian practices, the Indian government provides a good example of the influence of domestic policies on waste oil and animal fat imports. The government has regulated that the export of biofuel from special economic zones and export-oriented units is allowed for both fuel and non-fuel purposes without any restriction, provided the biofuel is produced using imported feedstock (The Economic Times, 2023). This policy is likely to lead to increased feedstock imports in India and higher biofuel exports to other countries. Additionally, domestic regulations governing the use of waste oil and animal fat can significantly impact the overall stock of these materials. For instance, in the U.S., the use of waste cooking oil for non-biofuel purposes has decreased due to strict regulations on its use in 297 animal feed (GlobalData, 2023). Such policy restrictions can positively affect the availability of raw materials for renewable diesel production domestically. International policies can influence the amount of waste oil and animal fat exported to the global market. Similar to how the EU and U.S. biofuel mandates drive waste oil and fat collection, these policies also affect the export of waste oil to meet global demand. As regulatory support increases waste oil collection, the international market benefits from a larger supply, leading to higher export volumes from countries that have implemented these policies. International policies that support the collection and exportation of waste products directly impact the availability of imports in domestic markets. With global stocks of waste oil and animal fat expected to rise under these policies, countries like Canada could have improved access to the raw materials needed for renewable diesel production. Supportive international policies contribute to a more stable global stock, ensuring sufficient raw materials supply. Impact of Domestic and International Policy and Regulatory Framework for Waste Processing on Domestic Yellow Grease and Tallow Production Domestic policies regarding the production and use of yellow grease and tallow, such as sustainability standards or production incentives, directly impact domestic waste processing volume. Sustainability’s critical priorities include reducing the amount of waste filling landfills, lowering carbon emissions, and conserving valuable natural resources (North American Renderers Association, n.d.). Rendering meets these objectives by upcycling rendered products into materials consumers can use again. Domestic and international policies encouraging waste processing also promote the development of rendering technology, improving efficiency. Although few policies specifically 298 target yellow grease and tallow, the example of vegetable oil illustrates this point. As demand for vegetable oil has grown, supporting policies have emerged to increase productivity through advances in extraction technology. A similar trend could apply to yellow grease and tallow as demand rises. Impact of Domestic and International Policy and Regulatory Framework for Waste Processing on Domestic Yellow Grease and Tallow Stock and Transportation Domestic policies regulating the production and use of yellow grease and tallow influence the quantities available for export and the stock available domestically. For example, China’s tax refund policies on waste cooking oil exports can significantly increase export volumes (Government of Fujian Province, 2024). Similar policies targeting yellow grease and tallow in Canada could enhance the domestic export market, meeting international demand for renewable diesel feedstocks but reducing domestic availability. Regarding international policy and regulatory frameworks, similar to the earlier example concerning waste products, policies promoting low-carbon fuel adaptation can increase the availability of yellow grease and tallow on international markets. This encourages exports and ensures sufficient quantities can be imported to meet renewable diesel production demand. For transportation networks, regulations targeting yellow grease and tallow promote the development of infrastructure for efficient transport. Similar to Vancouver’s waste recycling policy, supportive policies for yellow grease and tallow would likely encourage the development of related transportation infrastructures.
Thesis/Dissertation
eng
Resources, Environment and Sustainability
Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library
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Graduate
Giang, Amanda
Supply chain vulnerability assessment of alternative marine fuels in Canada
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