Arts, Faculty of
Geography, Department of
DSpace
UBCV
Jones, Craig Eugene
Doctor of Philosophy - PhD
University of British Columbia
In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and the spectacular collapse of the U.S. housing market, issues of debt and affordable housing in Canada have drawn increasing scrutiny. Vancouver's position in the Canadian urban system, and transnational circuits of migration and capital investment, highlights vivid tensions between affordability, capital accumulation, and policy challenges of social equity amidst widening inequality. Within this context, Chapter 1 of this thesis presents an overview of key themes of suburban rental housing, transit-oriented development (TOD), and the role of City leadership. In Chapter 2, I discuss concerns that much of Vancouver’s suburban stock of aging purpose-built rental housing could soon face redevelopment pressure. The key findings are that the current purpose-built rental stock is insufficient to meet demand, government policy may have contributed to a lack of supply, and expanding the supply of suburban rental housing will depend on a balance between preservation and redevelopment. In Chapter 3, I examine a highly localized example of marginalized renters in an aging, low- to moderate-density suburban neighborhood in Metro Vancouver facing displacement because of a local area plan to facilitate high-density redevelopment around a light rapid transit station. The central argument of this chapter is that TODs are buttressed by a logic of smart growth and environmental sustainability, which can override social equity concerns. In particular, I consider how TOD logics justified the demolition of refugee-serving housing in Vancouver’s suburban city of Coquitlam. In Chapter 4, I describe how the 2018 electoral defeat of Burnaby’s incumbent five-term mayor led to a significant policy shift in how the City approached renters in the gentrifying town centre of Metrotown. Following years of controversy and activism, the City of Burnaby approved the Metrotown Downtown Plan in 2017, which re-designated maximum density achievable through rezoning from 4-storeys to at least 12-storeys, in a neighbourhood dominated by rental buildings. A change in the mayor’s office led to a significant policy shift in Burnaby, with renters’ rights being recognized in new ways. Chapter 5 is a concluding discussion and summary of Chapters 2-4. Potential future directions for research are suggested.
ESSAYS ON PURPOSE-BUILT RENTAL HOUSING, GENTRIFICATION, AND TRANSIT-ORIENTED DEVELOPMENT IN SUBURBAN METRO VANCOUVER by Craig Eugene Jones B.A., The University of British Columbia, 2012 M.A., The University of British Columbia, 2014 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE AND POSTDOCTORAL STUDIES (Geography) THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA (Vancouver) April 2023 © Craig Eugene Jones, 2023 ii The following individuals certify that they have read, and recommend to the Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies for acceptance, the dissertation entitled: Essays on Purpose-Built Rental Housing, Gentrification, and Transit-Oriented Development in Suburban Metro Vancouver submitted by Craig Eugene Jones in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Geography Examining Committee: David Ley, Professor, Geography, UBC Co-supervisor Elvin Wyly, Professor, Geography, UBC Co-supervisor Supervisory Committee Member Trevor Barnes, Professor, Geography, UBC University Examiner Patrick Condon, Professor, School of Architecture and Landscape Architecture, UBC University Examiner Additional Supervisory Committee Members: Daniel Hiebert, Professor, Geography, UBC Supervisory Committee Member Supervisory Committee Member iii Abstract In the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and the spectacular collapse of the U.S. housing market, issues of debt and affordable housing in Canada have drawn increasing scrutiny. Vancouver's position in the Canadian urban system, and transnational circuits of migration and capital investment, highlights vivid tensions between affordability, capital accumulation, and policy challenges of social equity amidst widening inequality. Within this context, Chapter 1 of this thesis presents an overview of key themes of suburban rental housing, transit-oriented development (TOD), and the role of City leadership. In Chapter 2, I discuss concerns that much of Vancouver’s suburban stock of aging purpose-built rental housing could soon face redevelopment pressure. The key findings are that the current purpose-built rental stock is insufficient to meet demand, government policy may have contributed to a lack of supply, and expanding the supply of suburban rental housing will depend on a balance between preservation and redevelopment. In Chapter 3, I examine a highly localized example of marginalized renters in an aging, low- to moderate-density suburban neighborhood in Metro Vancouver facing displacement because of a local area plan to facilitate high-density redevelopment around a light rapid transit station. The central argument of this chapter is that TODs are buttressed by a logic of smart growth and environmental sustainability, which can override social equity concerns. In particular, I consider how TOD logics justified the demolition of refugee-serving housing in Vancouver’s suburban city of Coquitlam. iv In Chapter 4, I describe how the 2018 electoral defeat of Burnaby’s incumbent five-term mayor led to a significant policy shift in how the City approached renters in the gentrifying town centre of Metrotown. Following years of controversy and activism, the City of Burnaby approved the Metrotown Downtown Plan in 2017, which re-designated maximum density achievable through rezoning from 4-storeys to at least 12-storeys, in a neighbourhood dominated by rental buildings. A change in the mayor’s office led to a significant policy shift in Burnaby, with renters’ rights being recognized in new ways. Chapter 5 is a concluding discussion and summary of Chapters 2-4. Potential future directions for research are suggested. v Lay Summary Issues of debt and affordable housing in Canada have drawn increasing scrutiny, especially in Vancouver. Chapter 1 introduces the key themes and debates of concern in this thesis; suburban rental housing, transit-oriented development, and City leadership. In Chapter 2, I discuss Vancouver’s shortage of suburban, aging, relatively affordable, purpose-built rental housing, and the concerns that much of this stock could soon face redevelopment. In Chapter 3, I examine a localized example in which transit-oriented development planning contributed to the displacement of refugees from a marginalized, moderate-density suburban neighborhood in Metro Vancouver. In Chapter 4, I describe how the 2018 electoral defeat of Burnaby’s five-term incumbent mayor led to a significant policy shift in the City’s approach to renters in Metrotown. This change led Burnaby City Council to unanimously recognize renters’ rights in ways not implemented under the former mayor. Chapter 5 offers a concluding discussion, and recommends future research. vi Preface All Chapters of this thesis are my original, independent work. Chapter 2 was published in the Canadian Journal of Urban Research: Jones, C. (2022b). Modal logics of aging purpose-built rental housing in Vancouver’s suburbs. Canadian Journal of Urban Research, 31(1), 111-124. Chapter 3 was published in Housing Policy Debate: Jones, C. E. (2020). Transit-oriented development and suburban gentrification: A “natural reality” of refugee displacement in Metro Vancouver. Housing Policy Debate, DOI: 10.1080/10511482.2020.1839935. Chapter 4 was published in The Canadian Geographer: Jones, C. E. (2022a). Does a mayor matter? Gentrification, land use policy, and the 2018 mayoral election in Burnaby, BC. The Canadian Geographer/Le Géographe canadien. 66(3), 581-594. UBC Research Ethics Board certificate numbers H17-00230 and H16-02199 “Rental Neighbourhoods at Risk” approved the fieldwork reported in these pages. vii Table of Contents Abstract ......................................................................................................................................... iii Lay Summary .................................................................................................................................v Preface ........................................................................................................................................... vi Table of Contents ........................................................................................................................ vii List of Figures ............................................................................................................................... ix List of Abbreviations .....................................................................................................................x Acknowledgements ..................................................................................................................... xii Dedication ................................................................................................................................... xiv Chapter 1: Introduction ............................................................................................................... 1 Chapter 2: Modal Logics of Aging Purpose-Built Rental Housing in Vancouver’s Suburbs .. 11 2.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 11 2.2 Suburban complexity and change ............................................................................. 14 2.3 Suburban affordable rental housing shortage ........................................................... 16 2.4 Methods and data collection ..................................................................................... 20 2.5 The aging of suburban rental housing and an overall lack of supply ....................... 22 2.6 Political issues that restrict the supply of PBR and the importance of industry-government communication ................................................................................................. 25 2.7 Expanding the overall supply of PBR, while preserving the stock of aging PBR .... 30 2.8 Suburban Vancouver PBR in context ....................................................................... 35 2.9 Conclusion ................................................................................................................ 37 viii Chapter 3: Transit-oriented development and suburban gentrification: A “natural reality” of refugee displacement in Metro Vancouver ............................................................................... 40 3.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 40 3.2 TOD, gentrification, housing, and immigrant integration ........................................ 42 3.3 Methodology ............................................................................................................. 51 3.4 Syrian refugees at Whitgift Gardens ......................................................................... 55 3.5 The natural reality of demolition and displacement at Whitgift ............................... 68 3.6 Discussion and conclusion ........................................................................................ 73 Chapter 4: Does a mayor matter? Gentrification, land use policy, and the 2018 mayoral election in Burnaby, BC ............................................................................................................ 78 4.1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 78 4.2 Background: Growth and change.............................................................................. 80 4.3 Literature review ....................................................................................................... 82 4.4 What are mayors and who do they represent? .......................................................... 84 4.5 Metro Vancouver’s electoral context ........................................................................ 89 4.6 Burnaby’s 2018 municipal election .......................................................................... 90 4.7 Corrigan’s perspective .............................................................................................. 95 4.8 Conclusion .............................................................................................................. 104 Chapter 5: Conclusion............................................................................................................. 106 Bibliography ...............................................................................................................................117 Appendices ..................................................................................................................................150 ix List of Figures Figure 1. Change in the number of PBR units built before the year 2000 in the CMAs of Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal, 2017-2021. ........................................................................... 36 Figure 2. Purpose-built rental buildings (2008) and Metro Vancouver, British Columbia’s rapid transit network (2017). .................................................................................................................. 52 Figure 3. Share of apartment starts in Vancouver and Burnaby as a percentage of apartment starts in Metro Vancouver, 1990–2020. ................................................................................................. 93 Figure 4. Percent change in purpose-built rental units built before 2000 in Metro Vancouver’s top six PBR Municipal Markets, 1990–2020 (1990 base year) .................................................... 94 x List of Abbreviations ALRT Advanced light rapid transit BC British Columbia BCA Burnaby Citizens’ Association CAP Canadian Assistance Plan CCF Co-operative Commonwealth Foundation CHST Canadian Health and Social Transfer CMA Census Metropolitan Area FCM Federation of Canadian Municipalities GARs Government-assisted refugees GIS Geographical Information System ISSofBC Immigrant Services Society of British Columbia LRT Light rapid transit MDP Metrotown Downtown Plan NDP New Democratic Party NOAH Naturally occurring affordable housing NPA Non-Partisan Association PBR Purpose-built rental RTA Residential Tenancy Act SFD Single-family dwelling TOD Transit-oriented development xi UK US WW2 United Kingdom United States World War 2 xii Acknowledgements I wish to acknowledge financial support from the Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC), via funding for the Neighbourhood Change Research Partnership; SSHRC's Joseph‐Armand Bombardier Canada Graduate Scholarship Program, which provided doctoral awards for the period of this research; and the Real Estate Foundation of British Columbia through The University of British Columbia's Housing Research Collaborative. I am truly lucky to have found so many mentors. For more than a decade, I have had the privilege of learning from my supervisor David Ley, and my supervisory committee members, Elvin Wyly and Daniel Hiebert. They are all remarkable academics and humans. Penny Gurstein is an inspiration. Impromptu hallway conversations with Tom Hutton yielded surprising intellectual benefits. My thanks to Sandy Lapsky for guiding me through the bureaucratic systems of UBC. At SFU, Andy Yan is a genius. At Langara College, Colin Mills showed me the path. UBC Geography is a special place and I appreciate all of the faculty there from whom I learned so much. Thank you Danielle DeVries and Michelle Stump for feedback on drafts of Chapter 2. I would like to sincerely thank the anonymous reviewers of Chapters 2-4. Peer-review can literally be thankless, and taking the time to constructively critique the work of others is a gift. I am deeply grateful to all interview and focus group participants. I have done my best to be fair and follow the truth. I know that we may not agree on the truth that I found. xiii My thanks to the community of graduate students at UBC Geography and beyond who helped in ways unquantifiable: Annika Airas, Wes Attewell, Salome Buglass, Molly Clarkson, Dan Cohen, Joe Daniels, Catriona Gold, Alan Grove, Emily Hawes, Tom Howard, Zach Hyde, Leonora King, Kyle Loewen, Jonathan Luedee, Adam Mahoney, Elanna Nolan, Corin Parsons, Paige Patchin, Sage Ponder, Alex Pysklywec, James Rhatigan, Emily Rosenman, Shambhavi Srivastava, Colin Sutherland, Sam Walker, Jeff Whyte, Trevor Wideman. I have met so many wonderful graduate students from universities across Canada. Please forgive me for failing to thank you all. I am grateful to UBC Geography’s outstanding staff who were essential to my success: Jose Aparicio, Vincent Kujala, Suzanne Lawrence, Michael More, Bret Petersen and Danny Wong. I am fortunate to have some very smart friends who helped me along the way: Brian Clifford, Andy Longhurst, Andrés Peñaloza, Marcus Ristich and Jason Sokolowski. Thank you for your support, understanding and enthusiasm, Paul and Sheila Jones. I will spend the rest of my life being grateful to you, Nadia Slakov and Eddie Jones. xiv Dedication For Nadia and Eddie. You are the meaning of my life. For Shauna. We miss you. For Agnes. You said goodbye with grace. 1 Chapter 1: Introduction Access to affordable, adequate housing has a direct influence on the health and well-being of Canadians, forming the foundations of strong economies and healthy communities (Pomeroy, 2004a). As a social issue, housing is multi-jurisdictional, with all levels of government sharing responsibility, although the degree of each level of governments’ involvement in affordable housing policy has varied over time and across Canada. This thesis is primarily concerned with private-market, purpose-built rental (PBR) housing in Metro Vancouver’s suburbs. I do not engage with questions around social, subsidised, co-op, or any form of non-market housing. The typical building of concern in this study was built before 1980, is of wood-frame construction, stands 2- to 3-storeys tall, and contains at least five apartment units within a structure. The three main chapters of this thesis address the crisis facing Metro Vancouver’s stock of aging suburban purpose-built rental (PBR) housing, various policy responses to the proximity of PBR buildings to established and newly-built rapid transit stations in transit-oriented development (TOD) planning areas, and the contested personal and political outcomes of high-density redevelopment of PBR for TOD purposes. My central argument is that TOD logic can provide discursive cover for gentrification and displacement in suburban rental neighbourhoods, but that politics and city leadership can influence how these conflicts play out. The common concerns that tie these chapters together are the potential loss to the stock of aging, relatively affordable, purpose-built rental housing in suburban Vancouver, how the logic of TOD provides justification 2 for the demolition of older rental buildings occupied by marginalized renters, and the role local government leadership plays in this process. Previous work (Jones 2020; Jones & Ley 2016; Teixeira 2014) has documented the importance of Metro Vancouver’s suburban stock of aging PBR as a source of affordable housing for low-income renters, including recent immigrants and refugees. Suburbanization has been the dominant urban process in most North American cities, but we know relatively little about the differences between how urban and suburban housing markets function (Bourne & Hulchanski, 2020; Hepburn et al., 2023). Although the connection between central and peripheral urban environments has long been recognized (Burgess, 1928) and there is an extensive literature on the social geography of suburbs (Harris, 2004; Li, 1998), for a time the central city was the prominent object of study in urban research (Hayden, 2003). The demographic importance of the suburbs has led some contemporary urban researchers to focus study on the suburbs (Keil et al. 2015). The 1960s-1980s was a high point for Canadian PBR housing construction. On average, more than 100,000 PBR apartments were built each year, far outperforming production in the US, Britain, Australia and France on a per-capita basis (Suttor, 2016). Population growth in large urban areas was remarkable and meeting the demand for housing through PBR supply was a major policy issue in Canada. High interest rates and the prohibitive cost of purchasing a home led to a sense that the Canadian housing system was not functioning well (Suttor, 2016). Many young adults could not afford to move into homeownership and demand for rental housing surged. In the 1980s, real living standards in many suburbs began to decline, while suburban populations continued to grow, and subsidies for private market rental construction ensured that 3 PBR remained an important part of Canada’s urban growth, particularly in the suburbs (Suttor, 2016). In the Canadian suburb it was common to see apartment blocks being developed next to middle-class suburban subdivisions, producing built environments of diverse form, tenure and cost. Unfortunately, the supply of suburban PBR was not sustained into the 1990s, despite continued strong demand for rental housing. Higher profits could be generated from condominiums (Walks & Clifford, 2015), the return on investment from PBR was uncompetitive (Pomeroy, 2004b), and the housing market shifted to primarily serve homebuyers and investors (Pomeroy & Maclennan, 2019). Through the early 1990s, the number of PBR housing starts plummeted to less than 10,000 per year in Canada, and would not return to pre-1990 levels until 2015 (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC 2020b). This was an unparalleled collapse, at a scale not seen in the US or Australia (Suttor, 2016). At the same time that the private market was failing to produce new PBR, federal support for new social housing came to an end (Hulchanski, 2004; Pomeroy, 2004b). The availability of low-cost rental housing was further diminished through a combination of strata-conversions, demolitions and rent hikes (Pomeroy, 1995; Shapcott, 2004). A national affordable rental housing crisis ensued, with Canadians having to confront large-scale street homelessness not seen in the post-war period (Suttor, 2016). As homeownership affordability improved in the 1990s thanks to a slump in real estate prices and lower mortgage interest rates, a huge number of renters moved into homeownership (Suttor, 2016). However, low-income households were left in a residual rental housing market, struggling to find affordable housing in a stagnant stock of social and market rental housing. Despite this, 4 housing affordability ceased to be a mainstream policy concern for most Canadians (Suttor, 2016). Average suburban incomes declined during the 1990s, likely due to in-migration of the poor, rather than income declines for stable suburban residents (Cooke & Denton, 2015; Howell & Timberlake, 2014; Hulchanski, 2010; Walks, 2014). This is especially relevant for recent immigrants to Canada, with many immigrants settling in the suburbs of Canada’s largest cities. As gentrification processes beginning in the 1970s made inner-city housing too expensive (Walks, 2014), the older suburbs of Toronto and Vancouver filtered down and saw the rise of concentrated low-income neighbourhoods (Hulchanski, 2010). Recent immigrants became key participants in the “suburbanization of poverty” (Ley & Lynch, 2020, p. 130; Logan, Zhang, & Alba, 2002; Smith, 2004). Pomeroy and MacLennan (2019) argue that the lack of available low-cost suburban rental housing is now becoming a crisis. Many Canadians have been priced out of homeownership and the stock of suburban PBR housing is now far short of demand (Pomeroy, 2015). We see today a return to many of the concerns regarding access to affordable and PBR housing from the 1960s-1980s, with the high cost of housing putting homeownership beyond the reach of many Canadians. In response, PBR housing construction is beginning to return to levels not seen since the 1980s (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) 2020b). It is in the context of the aging suburban PBR housing crisis that I view transit-oriented development (TOD) as a popular, but potentially problematic form of suburban development. TODs encourage a concentrated mix of land uses and high-quality public spaces that encourage walking, cycling and public transit use. Fundamental to the success of TODs is high-density 5 housing within close proximity to a rapid transit station (Bernick & Cervero, 1997). TODs are largely viewed as beneficial to the neighbourhoods in which they are located, and to urban regions as a whole (Chapple & Loukaitou-Sideris, 2019), but there is a growing body of literature expressing a concern that TODs can result in gentrification and displacement of existing residents (Enright, 2013). Rapid transit stations, and TODs, are often located in sites that will meet less resistance (Enright, 2013; Marcuse, 2008). Once a transit station is established, the logics of TOD support significantly increased residential density within 800m of a station, creating a path dependency that makes it difficult to argue against high-density redevelopment, regardless of pre-existing land use (Enright, 2013; North, 1990). This is not to argue that transit-induced gentrification is inevitable, but transit stations in suburban neighbourhoods that have experienced disinvestment can expect to see a greater transformative effect from TODs (Knaap et al., 2001; Smith, 1996; Zuk et al., 2015). It has been observed that TOD planning areas in the US often contain clusters of affordable, aging rental buildings, which are disproportionately occupied by marginalized renters (Mueller 2010; Mueller, Hilde, & Torrado, 2018). In this thesis I discuss changes due to TODs in two of Metro Vancouver’s suburban neighbourhoods that contain concentrations of PBR buildings. If a goal of TOD is to equitably enhance access to rapid transit, transit-induced gentrification reveals a critical contradiction (Dawkins & Moeckel, 2016). Redevelopment and increased housing costs can have the effect of reducing marginalized renters’ access to transit, which is especially important for refugees settled in the suburbs (Renne, Tolford, Hamidi, & Ewing, 2016; Rose and Charette, 2017). This thesis contributes to a relatively recent body of literature 6 that seeks to understand suburban residential instability and displacement (Clark, 2005; Markley, 2018; Jones, 2020; Hepburn et al., 2023). All of these processes are political: varying support for suburban PBR over time; deciding where rapid transit stations and infrastructure are located; the land use and zoning policies that guide development in TODs; and the policies that govern the displacement of renters from buildings slated for high-density redevelopment. Therefore, politics can influence how TODs impact the lives of marginalized renters. In 1960s Vancouver, successful civil society opposition to a freeway through Chinatown galvanized a political movement that transformed the City’s politics (Ley, 1980). Immigration, ethnic diversity, affordable housing and homelessness are not traditionally the domain of local government politics, but these matters are increasingly seen as important issues to be addressed by local governments in larger Canadian cities (Lucas & Smith, 2019). In Chapter 4, I pay particular attention to a change in mayoral leadership that led to a significant policy shift in how a suburban municipality responded to its culpability in transit-induced gentrification and displacement. I argue that this focus on the mayor is productive because they are important, but understudied political leaders. Mayors typically exercise executive-type duties, and through force of personality, can wield considerable power as they contend with some of Canada’s most vexing social issues (Graham, 2018; Schragger, 2005). Through this lens I show that in the midst of a shortage of affordable suburban PBR, and path-dependent TOD planning logic that calls for the redevelopment of nearby moderate-density rental housing, politics and local government leadership can mollify outcomes for impacted marginalized renters. 7 Chapters 2, 3 and 4 have been published in peer-reviewed academic journals, and form the substantive content of this thesis. Modest formatting changes have been made to these chapters. Chapter 5 provides a brief summary and concluding discussion. In Chapter 2, I discuss Vancouver’s suburban stock of aging purpose-built rental (PBR) housing, and the concerns that much of this stock could soon face redevelopment pressure. The majority of Metro Vancouver’s stock of suburban PBR is at least 40 years old, of wood-frame construction, and sits on land that has become more central as Metropolitan Vancouver has expanded and densified. In late-2016 to early-2017 I conducted semi-structured interviews with urban planners, politicians, and real estate and housing professionals to collect a range of perspectives on the past, present and future of aging PBR housing in Vancouver’s suburbs. A review of interview transcripts identified three key themes: 1) the aging of suburban rental housing and an overall lack of supply, 2) political issues that restrict the supply of PBR and the importance of industry-government communication, and 3) a tension between expanding the overall supply of PBR, while preserving the existing stock. From 2014 to 2020 there were 21,669 PBR housing unit starts in Vancouver’s suburbs, compared to only 12,258 in the 24 years prior. In contrast to these encouraging signs of an increase to Vancouver’s suburban stock of PBR, from 2017 to 2021, Metro Vancouver lost 4,265 purpose-built rental units that were constructed before the year 2000, for a decline of 4.2% of that older and more affordable stock. Chapter 2 addresses some of the gaps in our understanding of suburban rental housing markets, by exploring the modal logics of various key stakeholders in positions to influence the stock of PBR in suburban Vancouver. In Chapter 3, I demonstrate how TOD policies can lead to gentrification and displacement through the redevelopment of low-income rental housing following the opening of a new light 8 rapid transit station. This local example speaks to broader concerns that TOD interventions could have negative consequences for low-income groups in the vicinity of TOD area plans (Padeiro, Louro, & da Costa, 2019). I employ a mixed-methods research design of Geographical Information System mapping, key informant interviews, and focus group discussions to reveal a complicated set of circumstances that led to the displacement of a group of Syrian refugees. I found that real estate developers had capitalized on plans to expand Metro Vancouver’s light rapid transit network and encourage high-density residential redevelopment in a low- to moderate-density suburban neighborhood of aging rental buildings, following the opening of a nearby light rapid transit station. TOD is a planning and financing framework that encourages walking, cycling and transit use in a concentrated area of high-density housing, commercial activities, and high-quality public spaces, centred on a rapid transit station (Bernick & Cervero, 1997). Some TOD plans are based on the premise of guiding suburban growth along transit corridors, similar to the experience of streetcar suburbs of the early 20th century (Cervero & Landis, 1997). In many ways, TODs can reduce issues of traffic congestion and air pollution, and dense, walkable communities can bring economic, social, and health benefits (Chapple & Loukaitou-Sideris, 2019). However, there are no guarantees that these benefits are delivered in an equitable way (Chapple & Loukaitou-Sideris, 2019; Enright, 2013). Transit stations are often located in areas of stigmatized social housing, areas of disinvestment, ethnic enclaves, or non-residential districts where high-density redevelopment will meet with less resistance (Enright, 2013; Marcuse, 2008). The displacement of existing residents is a concern, especially when stations are located in low-income areas, including neighborhoods with a large number of renters (Mueller, 2010; Pollack et al., 2010). In 9 order to critique the view of TODs as an ideal approach for environmentally sustainable growth and neighborhood revitalization, I view these processes through a lens of gentrification via reinvestment in fixed capital (Clark 2005). This is not to argue that transit-induced gentrification is inevitable, as these economic processes are shaped by provincial and local politics, and urban planning. Chapter 4 reviews a significant land-use policy change in the suburban City of Burnaby, following the electoral defeat of one of Canada’s most successful suburban mayors. After more than 30 years of uninterrupted electoral success, the Burnaby Citizens’ Assembly (BCA) lost the 2018 mayoral election and lost its Council majority through party resignations in 2020. The political backdrop of the 2018 election was a controversial series of land use policies that had enabled the demolition of hundreds of aging, affordable, PBR apartment units and a subsequent effort to extend high-density redevelopment into a concentrated neighbourhood of Burnaby’s vulnerable renters (Jones & Ley, 2016). Of particular interest for this chapter was the approval of the Metrotown Downtown Plan by Burnaby City Council in 2017. Burnaby’s long-serving mayor, Derek Corrigan lost the 2018 election, while all seven of his incumbent Councillors won re-election. This change in the mayor’s office plus only one City Council seat was followed by a significant policy shift in Burnaby away from the 2017 Plan, with the rights of renters being recognized in ways not implemented by Council under the former mayor. I consider these events as an example of the evolving relationship local governments have with gentrification, and the role that mayoral leadership can play in the how these processes can play out. Lees and Ley (2008) argue that local governments’ approach to gentrification has gone from ambivalence to making use of the process as a significant policy tool. In the 1960s and 1970s, 10 local governments had to be urged away from slum clearance and urban renewal in favour of preserving urbanity in older neighbourhoods (Lees & Ley 2008). Deindustrialization, capital flight, and the recession of the 1970s changed the urban fabric of North American cities, creating opportunities for profit in devalorized inner-city areas (Fainstein, 2001; Smith, 1996). Experiencing devolution and budget cuts, local governments chose to partner with large developers pursuing gentrification, in order to achieve urban development goals (Hackworth & Smith 2001). It has recently been argued that the local state increasingly acts now as not only a “sponsor but also a direct agent of gentrification” (Aalbers 2019, 7). In Canada, federal and provincial politics regularly address matters important to cities, and municipal politicians are an increasingly significant part of Canada’s political decision-making system (Andrew et al. 2002; Andrew et al. 2009). But with limited power and resources, Canadian mayors must contend with some of the most intractable social problems and, “are among the most important, and least understood, political leaders in Canada” (Graham, 2018, p. 251; Schragger 2005). Canadian mayors typically exercise executive-type duties, and the extent of mayoral power is person-specific, emerging from relationship dynamics vested in the individual (Graham 2018). As municipalities increase in size, homelessness, housing, and immigrant settlement become more important responsibilities for local politicians (Lucas & Smith 2019). Chapter 4 considers the influence that mayoral leadership can have on the processes through which local land use plans can lead to gentrification and displacement. 11 Chapter 2: Modal Logics of Aging Purpose-Built Rental Housing in Vancouver’s Suburbs 2.1 Introduction A study commissioned by the Metro Vancouver regional district in 2012 estimated that approximately 4,500 aging purpose-built rental (PBR) units in six of Vancouver’s suburban municipalities faced moderate- to high-risk of redevelopment (Coriolis, 2012). Previous work (Teixeira, 2014; Jones & Ley, 2016; Jones, 2020) has documented the importance of Metro Vancouver’s suburban aging PBR as a source of affordable housing for low-income renters, including recent immigrants and refugees. The future of this stock is worthy of attention, because Metro Vancouver faces an affordable housing shortage and aging suburban PBR provides naturally occurring affordable housing (NOAH) options for marginalized suburban renters. Approximately 50% of PBR units in Metro Vancouver are suburban, and approximately 70% of the loss of PBR units from 2017-2021 took place outside of the City of Vancouver. Unlike other BC municipalities subject to the Local Government Act, the City of Vancouver has its own charter, which grants it additional power to restrict demolitions permits. For these reasons, this study focuses on the modal logics of various stakeholders in relation to PBR in Vancouver’s suburbs. The majority of Metro Vancouver’s stock of suburban PBR is at least 40 years old, of wood-frame construction, and sits on land that has become more central as Metropolitan Vancouver has expanded and densified. There are legitimate concerns that many suburban PBR buildings 12 are approaching their “End of Life,” a poorly defined term suggesting that either significant reinvestment in core building systems is needed, or that a building should be redeveloped. In certain locations, redevelopment appears inevitable. I conducted 27 key-informant interviews to hear how a variety of key actors in these processes thought these processes might unfold. The key themes that emerged form the empirical section of this paper. This article addresses the following questions: How do different actors in Vancouver’s suburban municipalities conceptualize the value of aging rental housing? How are the fundamental tensions between the use and exchange value of affordable rental housing balanced, contested, and resolved through the actions of the state, the market, and residents? The central concern that emerged from this study is that there is there is a lack of supply of PBR units in Vancouver’s suburbs, while most of the existing stock is aging. In 1991, there were 118,749 PBR units in Metro Vancouver and this fell to a low point of 106,395 units in 2008. The stock began to rebound in 2009, rising to 115,949 units in 2020, for a net loss of 2,800 units. Considering that the population of Metro Vancouver increased from 1.5 million in 1991, to an estimated 2.7 million in 2020, the PBR stock has not kept up with population growth (Statistics Canada, 1991; BC Stats, 2021). Over the 1990-2020 period, the average PBR vacancy rate was 1.4%. The highest vacancy rate was 2.7% in 1998 and in 2008 the vacancy rate hit a low of 0.6%. Of the 115,949 PBR units in 2020, 74% were built before 1980 (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), 2021). In the literature review I highlight the conceptual complexity of the North American suburb to argue that there is an inherent conflict in planning the future of suburban PBR. Suitable housing is the foundation for strong, healthy economies and communities. A host of changes in the 1970s 13 undermined the economic viability of PBR development. Despite strong demand, the private market failed to produce sufficient PBR through the 1980s and 1990s. When the federal government stopped support for new social housing in the 1990s, a national affordable housing crisis ensued. The demand for affordable PBR now outstrips the existing stock. In recent years there has been an impressive growth in new PBR housing starts, but the older and more affordable stock faces potential erosion through redevelopment. In late-2016 to early-2017, I conducted 27 semi-structured interviews with property development and rental housing industry experts, local government politicians, urban planners, BC Housing Senior Staff and one Member of the BC Legislative Assembly. Interview questions focused on Vancouver’s suburban municipalities of Burnaby, Coquitlam, Surrey, New Westminster and the City of North Vancouver. These municipalities were chosen due to a relatively higher concentration of pre-1980 PBR units compared to other suburbs. Research questions were organized around themes of how key informants viewed 1) the marginalization of aging suburban rental neighbourhoods, 2) the value of aging rental housing, and 3) the future of PBR supply. The key findings of this study are that the current stock of PBR is insufficient to meet demand, government policy may have contributed to a lack of supply, and expanding the supply of PBR will depend on collaboration and a delicate balance of preservation and redevelopment. 14 2.2 Suburban complexity and change Suburbanization has been the dominant urban process in most North American cities over the postwar period (Bourne & Hulchanski, 2020). In spite of this, we know relatively little about the differences between how urban and suburban housing markets function (Hepburn et al., 2023). State efforts to increase access to mortgage credit and the image of the suburbs as an escape from a host of urban issues made suburban housing development tremendously popular (Moos et al., 2015). The decentralization of manufacturing and employment opportunities also contributed to suburban population growth (Harvey, 1990; Walks, 2001). Although the central city has typically been viewed as a more productive lens through which to view society (Hayden, 2003), the demographic importance of the suburbs suggests that urban researchers should take the study of the suburbs more seriously (Keil et al., 2015). Despite the stereotype of social homogeneity, suburban complexity and diversity was the norm before the creation of the corporate suburb following WW2 (Harris, 2004). The geography of the Canadian suburb began to conform to a model more similar to that of the US during the 1950s because the federal government favoured large developers that produced similar landscapes across the country (Lorimer, 1978; Harris, 2004). Harris and Lewis (2001) have theorized the complexity of suburbs through a model of poly-nucleation, composed of diverse land uses and economic functions that reflect and reinforce complex social geographies. The three stages for the Canadian suburb during the 20th century were, first, low levels of state regulation and high social diversity, then, high levels of state regulation and increased homogeneity, and finally, more mixed developments and higher levels of social, economic and cultural diversity (Keil et al., 2015). Although individual Canadian suburban municipalities may be socially homogenous, 15 in aggregate the suburbs have become more diverse (Harris, 2004; Nijman & Clery, 2015). Exemplary projects of suburban homogeneity such as Levittown, New Jersey, and Don Mills in Toronto, represent but one suburban form (Ekers et al., 2012). Suburbanism is both distinct and yet inseparable from urbanism, and Lorimer (1978) recognized that the post-war development of the corporate suburb was part of the same process as developing high-density apartment living in the inner city. Harris (2013) proposed a zone, or stage model of development to explain processes of suburban change. Newly-developed suburban areas temporarily produce fixed landscapes of socio-economic homogeneity. Over time, urban expansion and depreciation of the built environment combine to attract reinvestment. Conformity is ascendant only for as long as socio-spatial contests are obscured by a short-lived period of stability and suburban governance structures that seek to resist further change (Harris, 2013). Spatial patterns of residential investment and reinvestment shift according to several factors, including changing levels of profitability, public policy, zoning and the development of infrastructure, notably transportation (Bourne & Hulchanski, 2020). Urban theorists began to seriously wrestle with questions of complexity in the suburbs in the early 2000s as the prevailing view of conformity began to lose traction (Hayden, 2003). Now there is far more interest in the suburbs and far less agreement about their characteristics. Nijman and Clery (2015) propose a chronology of the suburbs that incorporates the changing nature and fortunes of the American suburb as a response to restructuring of the metropolitan region. The suburbs were first a means of escape from the industrial city, then a response to innovations in transportation that allowed for the decentralization of the urban population, but also of services, industries and retail activities. After WW2, the entrance of the state and corporate development 16 interests led to the rise of the suburb as monolith, but this period only lasted for 30 years (Nijman & Clery, 2015). In the 1980s there was a real decline in the living standards of many suburbs, but populations continued to grow. The current reality of the American suburb is one of tremendous diversity between suburbs, with limited diversity within. As a result, segregation and exclusion within the suburbs is still present, expressed in the built environment through gated communities, and through fragmented suburban governance that uses its power and draws from market logic to enhance exclusion in ways that are not quite as visible as in the inner city. We might expect that these changes would lead to increased residential instability and displacement, but it is only relatively recently that studies have explored this in the suburbs (Clark, 2005; Markley, 2018; Jones, 2020; Hepburn et al., 2023). In comparison to the American suburb, diversity in the Canadian suburb has largely been driven by immigration. In Toronto and Vancouver, former inner-suburban municipalities “filtered down” to became suburban immigrant reception areas, leading to concentrations of low-income suburban neighbourhoods where, “recent immigrants, are key participants in the suburbanization of poverty” (Ley & Lynch, 2020, p. 130; Walks, 2020). Hulchanski (2010) observed that from 1970 to 2005 low-income households became concentrated in Toronto’s inner suburbs, where access to transit and services is relatively poor. Immigrants and visible minorities were overrepresented in these areas. 2.3 Suburban affordable rental housing shortage Suitable housing is the foundation for strong, healthy economies and communities, because it interacts with multiple modes of social reproduction, and access to affordable, good quality 17 housing has a direct influence on the health and well-being of Canadians (Pomeroy, 2004a). However, an ideology that associates property ownership with citizenship may have contributed to a bias against rental housing (Kemeny, 1986). In the mid-1960s, Canada produced more social housing per capita than the United States, but a great deal less than Australia or Western European countries (Suttor, 2016). The 1960s also saw a rental housing construction boom, with more than 100,000 private rental apartments built per year, far exceeding per-capita production in the US, Britain, Australia or France (Suttor, 2016). The housing landscapes produced under this regime featured diversity in built form, tenure, and cost. However, Pomeroy and Maclennan (2019) argue that there is now an emerging rental housing crisis in most metropolitan areas of Canada due to a lack of available low-cost suburban rental housing. A combination of demographic, legislative, and economic changes in the 1970s undermined the viability of rental development as an investment vehicle (Pomeroy & Maclennan, 2019). Private sector construction of rental housing declined through the 1980s and 1990s as higher profits could be generated from condominiums (Walks & Clifford, 2015). There was still strong demand for rental housing, but the market primarily served homebuyers and investors (Pomeroy & Maclennan, 2019). As the private market was failing to produce PBR in the 1990s, federal support for new social housing came to an end through changes to the Canadian welfare state (Hulchanski, 2004; Pomeroy, 2004b). The transition from the Canadian Assistance Plan (CAP) to the Canadian Health and Social Transfer (CHST) represented the most significant change to Canadian welfare in more than a generation, and housing was not part of the mandate for the Social Security Review process of 1994 (Prince, 1998; Suttor, 2016). The CHST granted the provinces more 18 flexibility on social spending, but the removal of cost-sharing arrangements for social housing reduced both the capacity and incentive for provinces to invest in social housing (Suttor, 2016). The CHST put social spending on housing in competition with health care and post-secondary education. The federal government announced in 1996 that it would devolve responsibility for the administration of federally funded social housing programs and projects, effectively removing the federal government from social housing in Canada (Prince, 1998). A national affordable housing crisis ensued, leading the Big City Mayor’s Caucus and the Federation of Canadian Municipalities to declare a national housing disaster in 1998 (Shapcott, 2004; Pomeroy, 2004b). With the federal government effectively out of new social housing, provinces and municipalities had to shoulder the indirect costs of inadequate housing and homelessness (Hulchanski, 2004; Leone & Carroll, 2010). At the same time, rising income inequality contributed to the polarization of the housing system (Pomeroy, 1995; Tilly, 2006). The profile of renters shifted as higher-income households moved into ownership, and the rental sector became increasingly composed of those with lower incomes (Pomeroy, 2004b). The availability of low-cost rental housing was further diminished through conversions, demolitions and rent increases (Pomeroy, 1995; Shapcott, 2004). Despite the increasing cost of rental, the return on investment on new rental housing construction remained uncompetitive (Pomeroy, 2004b). The supply of rental housing has now fallen far short of demand, and as many Canadians have been priced out of homeownership, pressure is expected to shift to a rental housing stock ill-equipped to handle increased demand (Pomeroy, 2015). As of 2012, 55% of suburban Vancouver’s PBR units were built before 1970, and an estimated 16% of the stock was at risk of redevelopment (Coriolis, 2012). 19 In recent years there has been a surge in suburban PBR construction. From 2014-2020, PBR housing starts in Vancouver’s suburbs totalled 21,669 units. In comparison, there were only 12,258 PBR housing starts in the twenty-four years from 1990-2013 (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), 2020b). Despite these encouraging signs of a return of investor interest in PBR construction, rents in new PBR units are high. According to CMHC’s 2021 Rental Market Survey, average rents for 1- and 2-bedroom PBR units built after 2000 in the Vancouver CMA are 31% higher than overall average rents. Additional concerns have been raised regarding institutional investors acquiring existing PBR in Canada (August & Walks, 2018). The first six months of 2021 broke sales records for both the number and value of PBR transactions in BC, and institutional purchasers such as Real Estate Investment Trusts accounted for 15% of purchasers (Avison Young, 2021). For many years, Pomeroy (2001, 2012) has been arguing for the preservation of the existing rental housing stock through acquisition by non-profit housing operators. For every social housing unit built in Canada from 2011-2016, 15 units renting for less than $750 were lost (Pomeroy, 2020). Optimism for the impressive growth of new PBR construction in recent years is tempered by the ongoing net erosion of the affordable rental stock. This study addresses gaps in our understanding of suburban rental housing markets, by exploring the modal logics of various key stakeholders in positions to influence the stock of PBR in suburban Vancouver. This paper offers insights and data on Vancouver’s suburban rental housing shortage due to the aging of the existing stock amid 25 years without new PBR development. I consider key informants’ arguments that private sector actions and public policies have restricted new supply. There was general agreement that in order to address the shortage of 20 affordable suburban rental housing in Vancouver, the overall supply of suburban PBR must be expanded. The majority of public officials agreed that the stock of aging PBR should be preserved while expanding the stock, to avoid the displacement of marginalized suburban renters, but this was not supported by private-industry informants. 2.4 Methods and data collection In the following sections, I consider the transitional status of PBR housing in Vancouver’s suburbs, as buildings deteriorate and the land on which they sit becomes more central and of higher value (Harris, 2013). In late-2016 to early-2017, I conducted semi-structured interviews with twenty-seven key informants, with varied perspectives on suburban rental housing. I interviewed property development and rental real estate professionals (n=7), urban planning professionals and officials (n=9), local government politicians (n=7), BC Housing senior staff (n=2), and one Member of the Legislative Assembly for BC. All interviews were tape-recorded and typically lasted 90-minutes. Participants were initially approached based on their professional involvement in rental housing development, management and policy in the suburban municipalities of interest. My familiarity with the research topic informed the list of initial email contacts, and a snowball sampling approach expanded on the initial list. I chose to focus on three types of key informant: 1) Local government elected officials on City Councils, 2) senior urban planners working for local governments, and 3) real estate and rental housing professionals. One rental housing developer operated only in the City of Vancouver, but I deemed his unique insights worth including in this study. Research questions were organized around key themes of 21 1) the marginalization of aging suburban rental neighbourhoods, 2) how informants attribute value to affordable rental housing, and 3) the future of affordable rental housing. In no way do I assert that this is a representative, or exhaustive study of all possible actors involved in the processes that will affect the stock of rental housing in these suburban municipalities. Some local governments in this study were very open to participation, whereas planners from one local government were prevented from participating by City leadership. Although I was pleasantly surprised that so many private sector actors agree to participant, some key developers declined. By contacting a diverse group of key informants, the representation of any single group’s perspective is thinner than it would be had I focused on the perspectives of a single sub-group. A review of interview transcripts identified three key themes: 1) the aging of suburban rental housing and an overall lack of supply, 2) political issues that restrict the supply of PBR and the importance of industry-government communication, and 3) the tension between expanding the overall supply of PBR, while preserving the stock of aging PBR. Private-sector agents generally saw little reason to preserve the aging stock, arguing that these sites presented the greatest opportunities for densification and increasing the supply of PBR. Public officials were slightly more mixed in their perspectives. Although most city planners and elected officials agreed that redevelopment of ageing PBR had to be managed carefully, a small number argued that redevelopment and tenant displacement was inevitable and should be facilitated. Secondary to the aging of suburban rental housing and an overall lack of supply was how challenging it can be for developers to generate a profit from PBR development, because of the time and complexity involved the rezoning process. Deferred maintenance was identified as a 22 strategy of some landlords to justify renovictions or demolition, and also a response to a rent gap between the increasing value of land and decreasing value of buildings. As a result, many buildings are approaching their “End of Life”. Following the political issues that restrict the supply of PBR and the importance of industry-government communication, it was argued that government policies that sought to protect the existing PBR stock may have contributed to disincentives to build new PBR. Adding to these issues is the political divide between renters and homeowners, and efforts to attract their votes. In PBR redevelopment processes, the displacement of vulnerable renters was a key concern, and managing these concerns, among others, requires official and tacit communication between government and industry. Attendant to the tension between expanding the overall supply of PBR, while preserving the stock of aging PBR, was an argument to see PBR as a public asset preferred over condominiums. A common view was that government and industry have to work together to expand the PBR supply. Private developers are profit-seeking, and local governments can provide incentives and restrictions to harness the potential of private capital to produce PBR housing. 2.5 The aging of suburban rental housing and an overall lack of supply Probably the greatest challenge is the preservation or renewal of the aging PBR stock and what to do when a building had reached its “End of Life”. This was often used to describe older buildings that had not been well-maintained, but there was no consensus among informants as to 23 when a PBR building reaches its End of Life. As noted previously, with 74% of units being at least 40 years old, many units may require significant reinvestment. Despite a lack of consensus on the meaning of End of Life, there was general agreement that it would not be feasible to renovate older, low-rise, wood-frame PBR buildings to current standards without raising rents. At 50 years of age, key building systems are likely to fail, and End of Life reflects the balance between extensive maintenance and a landlord’s opportunity to sell. If a landlord can sell their property for far more than it could generate in rents, this is a disincentive to invest in the building, harkening a premature End of Life for the building. But this is not a simple process. Landlord/Developer 3 had successfully purchased and renovated several older, wood-frame PBR buildings in the City of Vancouver. Despite his success, he argued that this business model was fraught with difficult negotiations with the City, and the modest return would not be large enough for most investors. Given the fact that the City is so difficult to deal with, and… it’s so intensive, and having to evict tenants, all those factors. [Most investors] say, “Well, we can deploy our funds in other areas.” (Landlord/Developer 3) Several informants noted that some buildings were in poor condition due to a lack of maintenance. Allowing a building to deteriorate can be a strategy to compel a City Council to approve a rezoning. An elected official noted that the City of Surrey had introduced policies to communicate to the development community that this would not be a viable strategy. “What we’re trying to do… is find ways to make sure that developers understand that letting… the stock decline is not going to be a way for them to get their project’s redevelopment happening” (Surrey Elected Official). The BC MLA argued that the effectiveness of policies comes down to 24 enforcement. “So you don't just need the rule. You also actually need enforcement and warnings and then actually you might have to… make an example of [a landlord] so that all the other building owners see that, ‘hey, the City means business on this’” (BC MLA). In some cases, deferred maintenance on buildings had diminished living conditions to unhealthy and unsafe levels. At the extreme, fires in older PBR buildings that lacked up-to-date fire prevention and monitoring systems had led to a loss of life. North Shore Planner 1 noted that, “we’ve got ones… [built] in the ‘60s that have tons of deferred maintenance. No one’s ever done anything over the years. They’re death traps.” Interestingly, the harshest criticism of landlords that allow their buildings to deteriorate come from an industry insider. “The owners were, basically, raping the building, taking the profits, not putting money into the buildings…” (Landlord/Developer 3). In these cases of deferred maintenance and threats to tenant safety, municipalities have to find a balance between ensuring safety, and not requiring upgrades so onerous and expensive that it could push a landlord into selling. Although it was noted that many buildings could be upgraded with moderate investment, the Senior North Shore Planner argued, “You don’t want to lead to the unintentional demolition of buildings because they can’t afford to put in a very expensive sprinkling system.” Coriolis Consulting (2012) found that the greatest predictor of redevelopment of a PBR building was the gap between the current density on the site, and the achievable density through redevelopment. Under the Local Government Act, municipal governments in BC do not have the right to refuse demolition permits, except for certain heritage reasons. Any property owner has the right to demolish a building and redevelop at existing zoning. Demolishing a 3-storey PBR 25 building to build a 3-storey condominium building does not usually make economic sense, but on Vancouver’s North Shore, requests for PBR demolition permits in order to build condos at current zoning were becoming not uncommon. “I think at this point that’s less of a bluff than it ever has been in the past, because I think the market has actually changed to the point where that will happen” (North Shore Planner 1). The acquisition of older PBR buildings on large sites was a long-term investment strategy for Landlord/Developers 1 & 2. They had acquired several low-rise, wood-frame, walk-up PBR buildings for their future redevelopment potential as high-rise towers. “So all those wood frames you see… sitting on a 150-foot site with surface parking at the back, whether the zoning’s there or not, right now, the shrewd investor knows that eventually, the zoning will come, and those bigger sites like that will be worth a fortune” (Landlord/Developer 1). This long-term strategy of acquisition in order to eventually apply for a rezoning speaks to how policies may have contributed to virtually no new PBR development in Metro Vancouver from 1990-2014. 2.6 Political issues that restrict the supply of PBR and the importance of industry-government communication Informants from all sectors argued that provincial and local government policies have contributed to the restricted supply of PBR, albeit for different reasons. Industry informants argued that provincial and local government policies that sought to protect and preserve existing PBR had kept some rents artificially low, reduced the supply of new buildings and prevented the high-density redevelopment of low-density PBR sites. Landlord/Developers 1 & 2 argued that 26 BC’s rental industry is dysfunctional because of provincial government interventions such as rent control and restrictions on evictions. They argued that the BC government lacked expertise and consistently failed to consult industry when making legislative changes. Expanding the supply of PBR presents risks for local government politicians who agree that supply should be increased through up-zoning. Homeowners tend to oppose densification near to their homes and they tend to be more active in local politics (Fischel, 2005). “People that live in a single-family home get out and drive [the] vote” (Condo Developer). On the other hand, stories of tenant displacement for redevelopment can be both politically and personally difficult. “What’s really difficult politically for our Council is getting the calls from… the 75-year-old woman that’s lived there for 30 years, saying, ‘They’ve told me they’re going to tear down my building,’ you know? It’s a horrible call to get” (Senior North Shore Planner). One elected official noted that supporting up-zoning on PBR sites to encourage new rental redevelopment had brought about the end of their political career. “I will change… by helping encourage… dedicated rental. That takes political courage. That takes leadership, and that also means you’ve set the clock on the end of your tenure. You are going to be defeated” (CNV Elected Official). This sentiment was echoed by the Senior North Shore Planner who commented that approving high density rental projects costs City Council members, “a lot of political capital to get approvals,” but they don’t get “kudos” from the community because the benefit to residents are not immediate. A related issue is communication between government and the development industry. Metro Vancouver includes 21 municipalities, and industry informants argued that it was a challenge to anticipate which rezoning proposals a given municipality would support. Several informants 27 spoke to the importance of communication between local governments and the development community. Through policy documents, tacit interactions, and media statements, local governments communicate their priorities to the development community, and developers pay attention. Local politicians’ statements to media and industry groups inform the land acquisition strategies of developers, especially if redevelopment requires tenant displacement. When a municipality is clear it will not support rezoning PBR sites to higher densities, developers adjust their strategies. Jones (2022a) explored the influence that a powerful mayor can exert over land use and development policies. Changes in City Council, land use policy, and media communications inform developers’ strategies. We’re typically looking for opportunities all the time to tear down… we don’t undertake any projects unless they’re $50 million-plus… If we can possibly assemble a number of apartment buildings adjacent to each other, like Metrotown where we take down two or three at a time, we are interested in that. We’ve been actively doing that… Burnaby, under (former Mayor) Corrigan… permit[ted] the demolition of rentals… Corrigan has stated publicly to the public, the industry, whatever, that it is not a municipal issue to deal with existing tenants… So that is the green light for us to proceed… They are not going to stop us from terminating tenancies… The City of North Vancouver, City of Vancouver, clearly, they have a bylaw… we cannot do it. We don’t try. So why bother? It’s a bylaw. (Condo Developer) 28 In contrast to Burnaby’s former laissez-faire approach to PBR preservation, New Westminster has actively sought to preserve PBR units. The importance of New Westminster’s Secured Market Rental Housing policy was articulated by the municipality’s elected official. There’s still nothing the City of New West can do if someone wants to tear down their rental building. But essentially, what the policy has put in place is whatever you’re zoning in terms of your building entitlements, that’s all you can do. So it’s taken… a big carrot away from someone going in here going, “Well, this is a high density near a SkyTrain. This would be a good location for a high-rise… But oh, wait a second. If… we’re dealing with an existing rental building, I’m stuck with this zoning from the 1960s that says three-storey…” (New Westminster Elected Official) New Westminster’s position on retaining the stock of older PBR did not reduce new development applications submitted to the City, and it brought attention from developers who did not previously look to build in the city. New Westminster implemented strict regulations and complementary incentives, which helped created an environment of certainty for a segment of developers who were interested in building PBR housing there. It has actually brought in new developers, particularly those that actually build rental housing… And… the fact that there was a lot of incentives… brought in a segment of the development community that was actually, “Okay, we have a home here, and we can see how our projects can economically work.” (New Westminster Elected Official) 29 The majority of industry informants spoke to the importance of maintaining personal relationships with local government. Personal experience of the permitting and rezoning process can allow developers to “push back” for exemptions to certain policies. Experience with previous rezonings and good relationships with City staff can make developers more comfortable with proposing ambitions projects. Meetings between developers and local politicians can establish a shared understanding of the community engagement developers should undertake in order to be confident of receiving support from mayors and councillors. Through the rezoning process, informal, tacit interactions between cities, developers and the community are more fluid and important than a policy-focused analysis might suggest (Hyde, 2018). An extreme breakdown in communication between a City and a developer could result in a developer attempting to sue the City. However, it was argued that is unlikely to happen as it would terminate a developer’s ability to function in that municipality. None of the developers are going to sue… you’ll never do another development in that community again… you will never see a developer stand up in public… and ever criticize… any municipality, unless you decided you never want to do another deal in that municipality… And it’s just politics. I mean you want to play the game, you shut up… The Planning Department will just run you through the mill. (Condo Developer) The City of North Vancouver Elected Official noted that although local governments cannot withhold demolition permits under the Local Government Act, a heritage designation can be applied to almost any structure. This may not actually occur, but it speaks to the ways that local 30 governments can exert leverage that is not explicit in the Local Government Act. “You can call anything heritage… so if the municipality wants to keep it, we have the tools to do that” (CNV Elected Official). 2.7 Expanding the overall supply of PBR, while preserving the stock of aging PBR Four industry informants and one planner argued that for too long the development of condominiums has been viewed as equivalent to building new PBR. It was argued there is a great deal of pent-up demand for high-quality PBR in Metro Vancouver, and for decades that demand has been mitigated by condominium rentals. However, several informants rejected the argument that investors adding condos to the rental supply is equivalent to PBR, because condos offer less security of tenure because tenants can be evicted to allow the owner, or their family members to move in. With time, PBR rents tend to become more affordable, but this is not the case with condos. Large-scale evictions of tenants from a PBR building tend to attract media attention and tenants can organize a challenge to eviction orders through BC’s Residential Tenancy Branch, giving them an additional layer of security. Notable by its absence, industry informants did not comment that preserving the aging PBR stock was important. In contrast, many planners and government officials argued that the aging PBR stock has come to assume a disproportionately important role in the region’s affordable housing stock. Many local government informants argued that most aging PBR buildings could not both see significant reinvestment and be preserved at existing levels of affordability. However, when asked if New Westminster’s preservation policy was merely a stopgap and that 31 much of this stock would eventually reach End of Life, the New Westminster Elected Official argued that municipalities should work to retain this stock. I can argue that that stopgap’s important, though, because if that stopgap adds another 20, 25 years [to] units [for] people that… would not have otherwise been able to find housing in that particular… location, that’s not a stopgap. That’s actually of value to the housing network. (New Westminster Elected Official) Several public officials argued that slowing the loss of NOAH must be prioritized to address the lack of affordable housing. However, the development of new PBR must be balanced against the loss of the PBR stock. A shortage of available, affordable rental housing in the suburbs means that a net gain in the PBR stock could be bad for tenants in buildings demolished for new construction. When you find yourself in a hole, you need to stop digging, right? So, if our goal is to arrest the growth of homelessness and reverse it and arrest the loss of workforce housing and increase workforce housing, then… the first thing is we need to stop the loss of housing that is key to these different populations… you have to stop the loss of affordable housing first and then your 5,000 [new] units could actually make a difference for the people who are on the streets right now… (BC MLA) 32 You are creating more units, but you’re basically forcing those people to leave… we can’t allow those buildings to be torn down because there’s… no safety net for those people. Like, we don’t want a homeless crisis on our hands. (New Westminster Staffer) The New Westminster Staffer further argued that in addition to being inadvisable, it was unnecessary to demolish older PBR to expand the supply of housing. There’s lots of choice. And… we’re getting lots of housing. We don’t need to touch our rental stock in New West to meet our housing [targets]… you can add tons of units without touching [the rental stock], so I’m not buying that argument that you need those sites to build density for now. Maybe 30 years down the line you might need it… (New Westminster Staffer) There was general agreement from all informants that additional density is needed in order to build a new PBR project. When compared with condominium development, PBR requires additional density to be financially feasible. Metro Vancouver’s suburban municipalities have realized that a range of incentives can be used to encourage PBR, and several informants agreed that suburban municipalities were starting to grant additional density. North Shore Planner 2 was concerned that municipal policies designed to encourage new PBR might contribute to the loss of the aging PBR stock. “Sometimes, I worry that, as planners, are we creating that pressure? But also recognizing that… we’re really in this problem because we had no new rental built between 1980s to 2000” (North Shore Planner 2). Despite the fact that rents for newer PBR units are 33 higher, municipal incentives are justified because PBR becomes more affordable over time. “We’re not going to have a net loss of rental. I think we’re going to have a net gain. And we’re probably one of a very few number of municipalities that can actually say that” (North Shore Planner 1). Industry informants argued that very large, for-profit developers that typically build condos would have to be convinced to build PBR. Because these developers control a huge share of the land base and the development market, their participation would be needed to see a significant increase in the supply of PBR. “The condo kings, as I call them, have started to see the light, and they’re saying, ‘Oh, yeah. You know, this is probably a good idea’” (Rental Industry 1). The municipalities haven’t even clued into the fact that they could create that by giving bonus density if you would build rental… [and] putting a covenant on the title… If they did something like that, then we would all start looking at that, no question. We would all start. I would be happy to walk into these neighbourhoods and tear down five buildings in a row and build one rental building and do that because I know I’m getting double the density. (Condo Developer) Three local politicians, one BC Housing Senior Staff, and two planners argued that when PBR units are demolished, municipalities should prioritize their replacement. When a rezoning is required for redevelopment, there is an opportunity for the municipality to negotiate and incentivize a developer to build an equivalent, or greater number of PBR units. “Even if it feels a bit uncomfortable that we’re having these demolitions, we are succeeding… In some cases we’re 34 doubling or tripling the number of… purpose-built rental units that are secured in perpetuity. That’s a huge success” (Senior North Shore Planner). In many interviews there was a sub-text of the need for collaboration between parties to expand the stock of PBR. “It’s time for all stakeholders, all levels of government and developers, our industry to… collectively get together and say, ‘Okay, we need to work this out together. We need to figure a way to do it’” (Rental Industry 1). Informants saw encouraging signs of a willingness to collaborate between government and developers. BC Housing Senior Staff 1 praised 90% of the municipalities with which they partnered. The Senior North Shore Planner gave a strong justification for municipalities to partner with developers to leverage resources to build PBR units. It’s probably challenging for any [planning] professional to argue that money should be set aside for affordable housing… this is the first moment in maybe 20 years when the feds and province are finally saying they have some money on the table… We just have to do something, whether it’s our area of responsibility or not, and that’s the tack that we’ve taken for many, many years. But there’s a countervailing argument at most City Halls from finance department[s], from administration, “we can’t afford to do it all,” and this is one of the most expensive things that we could undertake, and it’s not ours to do. We just can’t do it… and it speaks to the need then, more than ever, to have a different perspective on how you make affordable housing projects happen. It’s not by putting money in, maybe not even by putting land in. It’s about harnessing the private development industry with the right kinds of incentive, carrots and sticks, to make them 35 do the right thing, to create the affordability in the market… (Senior North Shore Planner). 2.8 Suburban Vancouver PBR in context Paradis et al. (2014) document the linked crises of homelessness and a lack of affordable suburban PBR in Toronto. In their survey of over 1,500 households, they found that almost half of their respondents lived in buildings in poor condition. In contrast to recent studies in Vancouver’s suburbs, their study made no mention of demolitions. This may be due to their study being focused on high-rise towers. Much of Metro Vancouver’s suburban stock is of wood-frame construction, which is much cheaper to demolish than concrete towers. Goma (2020), and Mensah and Tucker-Simmons (2021) write of the demolition of approximately 150 units in in the multi-cultural Heron Gate community of Ottawa. Although Heron Gate is near the centre of Ottawa, this case strikingly parallels the cases of suburban Vancouver rental housing demolitions observed by Jones and Ley (2016) and Jones (2020). In all cases the demolitions were concentrated in diverse neighbourhoods, and the age and poor condition of the buildings were cited to justify the displacement of renters, and the limited compensation they received. In the five years since the interviews for this study were completed, there have been some fairly significant changes in Canada’s PBR stock. As of 2021, there are 2.2 million PBR units in Canada, the most that has been recorded. Regarding the older stock, suburban Vancouver is very different from the suburbs of Toronto and Montreal. Figure 1 shows data adapted from CMHC’s 36 Rental Market Survey. From 2017 to 2021 the stock of PBR built before the year 2000 declined in the Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) by 4,265 units, or 4.2%. Approximately 70% of this decline took place outside the City of Vancouver. In contrast, the older stock was relatively untouched in the Toronto CMA, and although the Montreal CMA saw a decline of 1,648 units, this represents a decline of 0.3% due to Montreal’s vastly larger stock of PBR. Figure 1. Change in the number of PBR units built before the year 2000 in the CMAs of Vancouver, Toronto, and Montreal, 2017-2021. Adapted from CMHC Rental Market Survey, 2021 (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), 2021) 37 2.9 Conclusion As Metro Vancouver’s suburbs have matured, the supply of pre-1980 suburban PBRs has become geographically more central in the region (Harris, 2013). A majority (74%) of suburban PBR units are at least 40 years old and there is immense pressure on this stock to provide NOAH options for marginalized suburban renters, including immigrants and refugees. Until recently, the supply of new PBR has been almost zero due to a poor rate of return, competition from condo development, and political interventions. Although there is renewed interest and support for building PBR, industry informants argued that it is still economically, technically and politically difficult to build new PBR projects in Vancouver’s suburbs. As PBRs approach End of Life, renewal or redevelopment of these buildings may be needed, and investments may require higher rents. When a landlord’s profit from sale for redevelopment far outstrips what can be generated through rents, it is challenging to justify a building’s retention. Overbearing, albeit well-meaning, regulations might also prematurely push a landlord into selling. Land-use re-designations and up-zoning can create redevelopment pressure on good-condition PBR buildings that could be viable for decades. Local governments must balance the expansion and renewal of PBR units, against the preservation of NOAH to avoid large-scale tenant displacement. Inaction is not an option. The status quo could possibly lead to an undesirable outcome where PBR buildings are redeveloped for condos without a rezoning, leading to a net loss of PBR. Without the assurance of a 15% return, many for-profit developers will not build PBR. Local governments can provide incentives to for-profit developers to deliver PBR units instead of more condos. Granting additional density through rezoning is a key incentive. When a PBR 38 development is being considered for a rezoning, it should be kept in mind that condo projects are financially viable at lower densities, but condominiums do not add to the stock of secured rental housing, and certainly not to the stock of affordable units. Because the supply of PBR units in suburban Vancouver has fallen short of demand, we currently find ourselves in a quandary. The PBR stock plays a disproportionate role in providing NOAH options for marginalized suburban renters, including immigrants and refugees. However, many of these buildings may be reaching End of Life and steps should be taken to prepare for their renewal, or demolition. Future research should explore how local governments can properly manage tenant relocation. In seeking to protect renters from displacement, provincial and local governments may have inadvertently contributed to a lack of new PBR supply. Much of the older PBR stock standing today was financed using federal tax incentives and subsidies that have long been removed. The political divide between owners and renters can manifest in local government policy, which can influence the political fortunes of local government officials (Jones, 2022a). Local governments can communicate their rezoning priorities to developers through policies, but also through tacit communication and statements to the media. Developers will adjust their strategies according to these priorities. The main limitations of this study are due to the relatively small sample size of key informants, and the large and complex regulatory landscape of suburban PBR. The insights reported were common to the sample, but inherently partial. The key themes identified were gathered from informants at a particular place and time. In the years since, many informants are now in different professional roles and their perspectives may have changed. Some of the elected officials interviewed are no longer in politics, and their perspectives may no longer be relevant to 39 local government policies. Large policy shifts are possible with small changes to membership on City Councils (Jones, 2022a). Despite these limitations, CMHC data on the PBR stock in the CMAs of Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal indicate that the motivation of this study to focus on Vancouver’s suburban PBR stock was well-founded. Future research could seek to explain why from 2017-2021, Vancouver’s suburban stock of aging PBR declined to a degree so different from Canada’s two other largest urban regions. Although there was disagreement between informants as to the best way to manage tenant displacement, the importance of communication and collaboration emerged as a common theme. Tenant relocation for PBR redevelopment will continue to be a matter of concern in the city and suburbs of Vancouver. Developers should be encouraged to consult with tenants before taking a PBR rezoning project forward. Future research should review best practices and outcomes to help local governments design policies that accept the gradual transition of the PBR stock, while mitigating the harmful effects of displacement. This line of research is particularly important given the approval of the City of Vancouver’s Broadway Plan on 22 June 2022 (City of Vancouver, 2022), which applies to an area containing a significant amount of the city’s aging PBR housing. 40 Chapter 3: Transit-oriented development and suburban gentrification: A “natural reality” of refugee displacement in Metro Vancouver 3.1 Introduction Metro Vancouver, British Columbia (BC), Canada, has one of the most expensive housing markets in the world, regularly ranked second or third in terms of the ratio of house price to local income. Whitgift Gardens (hereafter Whitgift), in the Burquitlam neighborhood of Vancouver’s suburb of Coquitlam, was a sprawling, three-story, purpose-built rental (PBR) complex with more than 250 apartment units built before 1980 and distributed across approximately 20 buildings. Since at least 2005, Whitgift has been a landing place for recent immigrants and refugees. Informally known as Wanda’s Place to staff at the Immigrant Services Society of BC (ISSofBC), provider of the Resettlement Assistance Program with responsibility for finding permanent housing for government-assisted refugees (GARs) in BC, Whitgift was the primary location for Syrian GAR (hereafter Syrian) settlement in Coquitlam. In 2012, Concert Properties (hereafter Concert), a developer and rental-housing operator backed largely by Canadian public services pension funds, purchased Whitgift as a redevelopment property in anticipation of an expansion to Metro Vancouver’s rapid transit network. The Burquitlam station on the Evergreen Line SkyTrain extension1 opened in 2016, is located less than 800 m from Whitgift, a critical discursive threshold that spatially justifies high-density residential redevelopment according to 1 Please refer to Appendix A for background on the Evergreen extension and the push toward TOD in Metro Vancouver. 41 the logics of transit-oriented development (TOD). In 2019, three quarters of Whitgift was demolished, displacing eight Syrians who participated in a 2017 focus group for this study. This local example speaks to concerns raised by researchers and policy analysts that TOD interventions could result in gentrification and the displacement of low-income groups (Padeiro, Louro, & da Costa, 2019). In this case study, developers have capitalized on plans to expand Metro Vancouver’s rapid transit network into a low- to moderate-density suburban neighborhood of aging rental buildings, leading to gentrification and displacement of marginalized renters through demolition and high-density redevelopment in a TOD planning area after the line was constructed and a rapid transit station opens. In this study I demonstrate how TOD policies can cause gentrification through the rapid redevelopment of low-income rental housing following the opening of a new rapid transit station. Access to low-cost rental housing near public transit is important for the settlement process of refugees, making these newcomers particularly vulnerable to this form of gentrification. Theories of TOD that focus on environmental and economic benefits in service of the public interest fail to anticipate social inequity caused by this form of development, particularly when single-family homes are slow to be affected by, or are explicitly protected from, these processes of change. This case study makes an original contribution to wider understandings of TOD, gentrification, and refugee housing. I engage a mixed-methods research design to combine Geographical Information System (GIS) analysis of real estate data; interviews with politicians, municipal government professionals, and social services agencies; and focus group discussions with refugee residents to provide a nuanced and personal engagement with the enactment of TOD policies. 42 The policy context of TOD is simple in general, but complex at the local level. TOD provides discursive justification for increased residential density around transit stations. If high-density redevelopment of residential areas of low-income renters is part of successful TOD areas plans we can expect that gentrification will take place unless anti-displacement policies are established (Chapple & Loukaitou-Sideris, 2019). In this article I show that a tendency for transit stations to be located in areas of marginalized renters creates space for local government officials to argue that renters’ displacement is inevitable, buttressed by environmental sustainability and smart growth imperatives. 3.2 TOD, gentrification, housing, and immigrant integration 3.2.1 TOD: urban panacea or tool of gentrification? TOD is a planning and financing framework in which high-density housing, commercial activities, and high-quality public spaces that encourage walking and cycling are concentrated around a rapid transit station (Bernick & Cervero, 1997). Amendments to official community plans are often introduced to allow greater densities and to leverage the benefits of additional density to steer private development toward producing mixed-use, pedestrian-friendly, and attractive streetscapes (Atkinson-Palombo & Kuby, 2011; Cervero & Kockelman, 1997). For some, TOD is a panacea for a variety of urban issues, from reduced traffic congestion and air pollution to the economic, social, and health benefits of fostering dense, walkable communities (Chapple & Loukaitou-Sideris, 2019). However, some scholars have brought attention to the inequitable ways that these benefits can be delivered (Chapple & Loukaitou-Sideris, 2019; 43 Enright, 2013). A pressing concern regarding TOD is whether policies that seek to increase investment in rapid transit and residential densification lead to gentrification. Previous research has examined TOD policies and their impacts on low-income communities and recent immigrants in Metro Vancouver (Jones & Ley, 2016), but this analysis took place decades after the opening of a light rapid transit (LRT) station. Here I use a similar approach to examine impacts on similar communities during the opening of an LRT extension, providing additional observations at a crucial period in Metro Vancouver’s LRT history. Jones and Ley (2016) document TOD-induced gentrification around a 30-year old transit station in the Metrotown area of the City of Burnaby in Metro Vancouver, caused by a bylaw text amendment that doubled achievable density through redevelopment in an exclusively rental neighborhood. I build on their findings to show that this was not an isolated incident of TOD planning in Metro Vancouver’s rapid transit network. Whereas the Metrotown station had been operational since the mid-1980s and policies introduced in 2011 led to a wave of displacement, land-use plans for Coquitlam’s Evergreen Line Extension were developed in advance of the line opening, signaling the potential for high-density redevelopment in Burquitlam to the development community well before the line opened in 2016 (Coquitlam, 2012). Although displacement in Burquitlam took place after the opening of the Evergreen Extension in 2016, plans for this process were in place since 2012. When and how TODs develop vary both spatially and temporally. Based on the experience of streetcar suburbs of the early 20th century, some TOD plans have been premised on the expectation of guiding suburban growth along transit corridors (Cervero & Landis, 1997). Development can take place in advance of or shortly following the opening of a rapid transit station, or it can take several decades for local-area TOD plans to be realized. Housing prices can 44 increase in advance of a rapid transit line when neighborhood plans allow for higher densities, or after a station opens, attracting higher income residents and higher value land uses (Knaap, Ding, & Hopkins, 2001). This variability occurs between and within transit systems, with station area development shaped by the presence or lack of supportive public policy, strong local economies, willing private industry and the reliability of the transit system (Belzer, Autler, Espinosa, Feigon, & Ohland, 2004; Cervero & Landis, 1997; Hess & Lombardi, 2004; Wardrip, 2011). It is common for area plans in TODs to re-designate land for high densities. For private developers to engage in redevelopment, the return on future development must be large enough to justify outbidding the value of a site under its current use. Increased floor-area ratios, reduced parking requirements, waived development cost charges, and density bonus programs can all contribute to a project’s ability to outbid an existing land use. TODs, at least in the Metro Vancouver context, are seen as a tool for concentrating development in specific places by significantly increasing residential density. Although this logic supports increased densities around transit stations regardless of existing land use, the placement of stations is a political, and sometimes contested, process that creates a path dependency of density in certain locations by limiting the set of decisions that can be made for that locale (Enright, 2013; North, 1990). Transit stations are often located in soft sites where the potential for higher density redevelopment will meet with less resistance, such as areas of stigmatized social housing, certain suburbs, ethnic enclaves, or central business districts (Enright, 2013; Marcuse, 2008). Atkinson-Palombo and Kuby (2011) observed that planners in the Phoenix, Arizona, area focused TODs in areas defined as urban poverty, avoiding long-standing neighborhoods of single-family homes. We can expect 45 the transformative effect of transit stations to be greatest in neighborhoods that have experienced disinvestment (Knaap et al., 2001; Smith, 1996; Zuk et al., 2015). The indeterminate nature of successful TODs means that there is no simple causal relationship between rapid transit stations and gentrification, and actors involved in TOD processes can work at cross purposes (Belzer et al., 2004; Pollack, Bluestone, & Billingham, 2010). It was not long ago that transit stations were seen as a dis-amenity, attracting poverty and crime (Pollack et al., 2010). I operationalize gentrification based on Clark (2005), who states: Gentrification is a process involving a change in the population of land-users such that the new users are of a higher socio-economic status than the previous users, together with an associated change in the built environment through a reinvestment in fixed capital (p. 263). I adopt this definition of gentrification as a critical lens through which to view TOD’s implementation and critique how these policies are increasingly seen as an ideal method for environmentally sustainable growth and neighborhood revitalization through a reinvestment in fixed capital. Studying a sample of 14 U.S. cities, Kahn (2007) observed differences between pedestrian-oriented station areas and those built around a park-and-ride model. Following transit openings, gentrification was observed at some, but not all, pedestrian stations, whereas the locations around several park-and-ride stations showed signs of increased poverty. Wardrip (2011) found that the impact of transit on home values, even within a single transit system, was subject to various mediating factors such as housing type and tenure, the extent and quality of the transit system, housing market strength, and neighborhood characteristics. The effects of a transit expansion are 46 strongest in areas near stations offering reliable service to jobs and services in cities with strong housing markets (Wardrip, 2011). TOD-induced gentrification is more likely to take place when stations are located in low-income areas, and neighborhoods with a large number of renters (Pollack et al., 2010). Mueller (2010) observed that TOD planning areas often contain clusters of affordable aging rental buildings. In both the US and Canada, a large stock of this rental housing was built to meet market demand between the mid-1960s and the early 1980s using favorable tax incentives (Carter, 1997; Coriolis Consulting Corp, 2012; Horowitz, 1983; Schwartz, 2006). In the United States, this housing is disproportionately occupied by renters, people of color, and low-income households dependent on transit for access to jobs and services (Mueller, Hilde, & Torrado, 2018). In Metro Vancouver this housing plays an important role in housing recent immigrants and refugees (ISSofBC, 2017; Jones & Ley, 2016). One of the goals of TOD is to equitably enhance accessibility, but enhanced accessibility provided by rapid transit results in locational premiums that certain actors seek to capitalize on (Dawkins & Moeckel, 2016). Renne, Tolford, Hamidi, and Ewing (2016) write of an affordability paradox wherein high housing costs displace low-income households from TODs, resulting in a reduction of access to affordable rapid transit for those who need it most. The cost saving for low-income households commuting by transit rather than by car can be substantial (Mueller & Kaplan, 2014; Roberto, 2008). Expensive TOD neighborhoods can be more affordable than nearby non-TOD neighborhoods because lower transportation costs offset higher housing costs (Dawkins & Moeckel, 2016; Metro Vancouver, 2015; Renne et al., 2016). Rose and Charette (2017) note the importance of access to public transit for refugees settled in 47 suburban areas. It is important to recognize the benefits of rental housing near transit for the integration experience of newcomers to Canada, and more research is needed to understand the relationships among TOD, gentrification, and refugee settlement in Canadian cities. 3.2.2 Housing and integration Access to good-quality, affordable housing is essential for the successful integration of newcomers to Canada (Carter & Vitiello, 2012; Francis & Hiebert, 2014; Hulchanski, 1997; Murdie, 2008, 2010). However, recent immigrants and refugees are typically housed in cheaper and older apartments, unless they are fortunate enough to access social housing (Teixeira & Li, 2015). Francis and Hiebert (2014) found that “a lack of stable housing is correlated with more marginalized social networks, higher rates of unemployment, inability to build assets and meet other needs, increased stress, and a longer and more difficult integration process overall” (p. 64). Immigrants to Canada arrive with vastly differing amounts of economic, social and human capital, and many face serious housing affordability challenges, especially renters (Murdie, 2004, 2010). Refugees are more likely to lack the resources needed to access affordable and adequate housing, and face additional stress in the integration process because of displacement from their homeland, often separated from their families under traumatic conditions, and many suffer mental and physical health problems (Francis & Hiebert, 2014; Murdie, 2010). Refugees are at increased risk of homelessness, with many living in “inadequately maintained, overcrowded, and unaffordable housing units” (Francis & Hiebert, 2014, p. 63). 48 Traditional models of immigration expect newcomers to settle in low-cost housing in central cities, but in many cities processes of gentrification beginning in the 1970s have made inner-city housing too expensive (Walks, 2014). The inner-city ethnic enclave model is often obsolete; increasingly, immigration is taking place directly to the older suburbs. The aging of inner- and middle-range suburbs has created a supply of relatively more affordable housing, and this is where we see newcomer settlement and increases in homeownership (Hiebert, 2017; Hulchanski, 2010). In some cases, this is due to limited choice, but in others, preference. Whereas some scholars have assumed that moving to the suburbs indicates an improvement in housing conditions, older suburbs have started to succumb to disinvestment, and settlement directly to the suburbs is occurring in the context of rising suburban poverty (Logan, Zhang, & Alba, 2002; Smith, 2004). The outward movement of certain employment forms, gentrification forces, and a declining proportion of the poor in central cities suggest a migration of the poor to the suburbs during the 1990s, rather than a decline in income for stable suburban residents (Cooke & Denton, 2015; Howell & Timberlake, 2014; Hulchanski, 2010; Walks, 2014). Although typically seen as an indicator of successful integration, immigrant settlement in the suburbs puts many under intense financial pressure to keep up with rent or mortgage payments (Preston et al., 2009; Teixeira, 2014). However, we must not assume that immigrants living in predominantly visible-minority suburban neighborhoods are in need of housing assistance (Li, 1998). Remarkable numbers of immigrants to Canada successfully move into homeownership (Hiebert, 2009, 2017; Simone & Newbold, 2014). Of the three main categories of entrance class, Hiebert (2017) found that family-class newcomers achieve disproportionately early rates of homeownership, whereas economic immigrants start at a disadvantage and close the gap over 49 time, but refugees as a group face the greatest challenges, and these challenges often persist. However, the resilience of refugees to Canada is evident in their movement into homeownership. In Metro Vancouver, approximately 25% of refugees who had been in Canada for 5 years lived in homes they owned. Refugees who had been in Canada for at least 20 years had achieved homeownership close to the general population rate of 69.5% (Hiebert, 2017). This evidence shows that many immigrants and refugees experience a progressive housing career, securing better quality housing over time, but those refugees stuck in rental housing continue to face affordability and housing quality issues (Murdie, 2008). Compared with other groups, homeownership rates in Canada are markedly lower for refugees who identify as Arab, Black, or Latin American (Hiebert, 2017). 3.2.3 Equitable TOD The importance of affordable rental housing near transit for refugees, along with the redevelopment pressures that TOD brings, highlights the tensions that exist among TOD’s sustainability aims. The equity goals of sustainable development are often subsumed by economic and environmental priorities (Oden, 2016). Compact, walkable, and attractive streetscapes designed to counter urban sprawl and promote the numerous benefits of non-automobile transportation often come into tension with the needs of low-income residents in neighborhoods targeted by TOD policies (Mueller et al., 2018). Advocates for those facing TOD-induced displacement may find themselves in opposition to powerful interests and convincing arguments that support sustainable, compact urban growth. In recognition of the relationship between household income, tenure and transit use, an interest in equitable TOD has emerged to 50 preserve and provide affordable housing near transit (Mueller et al., 2018; Pollack, Gartsman, Boston, Benedict, & Wood, 2014). Recently, Vancouver’s regional government has begun to explore opportunities for and constraints to building new affordable rental housing in TODs (Metro Vancouver, 2019c). Despite the emerging concern for equitable TOD in general, and in Metro Vancouver in particular, local governments are likely to be supportive of TOD initiatives if they have the potential to generate increased property tax and development revenue (Rayle, 2015). In sections 3 and 4 I outline processes through which the logic of TOD was deployed in the case of Whitgift to, supposedly, make the displacement of hundreds of renter households inevitable. I argue that it is problematic to assume that high-density redevelopment in TODs is inevitable when stations are located in residential areas. Because there is a tendency to locate stations in areas of less resistance, disaster can follow when those areas are occupied by vulnerable renter households who most need access to rapid transit. The Province of British Columbia’s Residential Tenancy Act (RTA) is the principal legal document that governs tenancy relations (Residential Tenancy Branch, 2002), but this document is wholly inadequate to address the needs of renters facing displacement from rental neighborhoods in Metro Vancouver. The region has seen very little new PBR stock built since the early 1980s, and rental vacancy rates in the region’s primary rental market have hovered around 1% since 2014 (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation [CMHC], 2020a). In light of the minimal compensation to which renters facing eviction are entitled, it falls to local governments to craft their own policies to secure equitable TOD. 51 3.3 Methodology For this project I employed a mixed-methods research approach. I used: (a) cluster mapping of aging PBR near transit stations to identify sites of analysis; (b) interviews to understand how decisions were made leading to this case study; and (c) a focus group to gain unique perspectives on change within a station area. I detail these methods below. 3.3.1 Mapping clusters of aging PBR near transit stations I sought to draw a sample for in-depth study from clusters of aging, wood-frame, PBR buildings near rapid transit stations in Metro Vancouver’s suburban centers. The Metro Vancouver regional government provided data from an inventory and risk analysis of the region’s stock of PBR buildings standing in 2008 (Coriolis, 2012). The data were produced in 2009 by BC Assessment, a provincial crown corporation with the mandate to assess property values for taxation purposes. The data were cleaned and curated with XY coordinates by Coriolis Consulting Corp. to allow for geocoding using ESRI’s ArcMap. Figure 2 shows the distribution of PBR buildings and Metro Vancouver’s rapid transit network and highlights the location of the Burquitlam cluster of PBR buildings. 52 Figure 2. Purpose-built rental (2008) and Metro Vancouver, British Columbia’s rapid transit network (2017). TransLink (South Coast British Columbia Transportation Authority); Lesack, Paul, 2019, “TransLink Transit GIS Data, 09 August 2019”, https://hdl.handle.net/11272.1/AB2/QQLSCJ, Abacus Data Network, V1 All buildings in the City of Vancouver were excluded because the Vancouver Charter grants the City additional powers over housing and development that all other municipalities in BC do not have under the Local Government Act. Data for PBR buildings outside of Vancouver were included if they met the following characteristics: constructed before 1980; fewer than five storeys tall; and contained at least five rental units. This left a sample that was more likely to be old and of wood-frame construction, and avoided units mixed with commercial spaces. I overlaid this sample layer of PBR buildings with Metro Vancouver’s rapid transit network and stations using TransLink GIS data retrieved from the Abacus Dataverse Network (TransLink, 2017). 53 Using ArcMap’s Buffer tool, I then removed all PBR buildings that were not in a cluster of at least four buildings within 400 m of each other. After taking these steps, just over 600 buildings remained in the sample. I created maps of the sample at regional and neighborhood scales to guide field work and site visits from November 2016 through August 2017. Site visits proved to be an essential part of the project to ground-truth and error-check the data. At least 10% of observations in the data set contained obvious errors, such as buildings with zero storeys or multi-storey buildings with zero apartments. As much as possible I used Google Street View to find images of addresses to correct obvious errors, but site visits revealed more subtle errors, such as incorrect coordinates or small inaccuracies in the number of storeys and assumptions regarding construction materials. At the time of site visits I had been studying PBR housing in Metro Vancouver for more than 2 years, since September 2014. My knowledge of suburban PBR neighborhoods at that time was limited and site visits to more than 600 buildings gave me a sense each neighborhood’s “haptic habitus” (Wise, 2010), helping me understand each cluster of dots on a map as a unique place. Site visits helped to narrow clusters of PBR buildings to those located in areas where densification was likely. PBR clusters were often located within walkable areas near commercial activities, government facilities, large parks or schools, and other urban amenities in areas near main roads and thoroughfares. In a handful of cases, a cluster of PBRs was in a location lacking any of these markers that would suggest potential for densification, and those locations were excluded from further study. The series of maps produced for this project are not included in this article because they were of limited analytical value in themselves, but they proved to be invaluable for identifying locations 54 for in-depth study. They also helped identify where to target recruitment efforts for key informant interviews and focus group participants. Without these maps, I would not have learned of the Burquitlam neighborhood, nor of Whitgift. 3.3.2 Key informant interviews and focus group I interviewed 33 key informants and conducted six focus groups during field work from November 2016 through August 2017. This article is informed by data collected from all interviews and focus groups, but the narrative below is focused on just five interviews and one focus group. I chose to focus on the specific theme of change affecting a single PBR building because it is an important story to tell, and data from interviews and focus groups not specifically relevant to this theme will be used for another study. Key excerpts were selected according to how well they explain the logic of actors’ decisions, reveal the sequence of events, and communicate residents’ experience of this case of displacement. In response to Clark’s (2005) call to conduct analysis “in which the playing field is evened, the voices of all actors involved and influenced more fully recognised and the conflicts inherent to gentrification openly negotiated” (p. 262), I have focused attention on the literal voices of actors involved in creating, justifying, and experiencing the conflicts inherent to this case study of TOD-induced gentrification. The five key informants cited in this article, one Coquitlam elected official, one Coquitlam city staffer, and three ISSofBC staffers, were identified for interviews via publicly available information on their professional purview, or upon recommendation from other interviewees. 55 Key informants in senior positions were preferred and informants quoted in this article were guaranteed that they would not be identified by name in published results. One focus group of eight Syrian refugees “encapsulates some of the complex emotional layers” of the displacement of hundreds of vulnerable renters in suburban Metro Vancouver (Wise, 2010, p. 919). Although this focus group is about as far from being representative as possible, it is an example of perhaps the worst possible outcome of TOD in the region and provides a lens through which to view Metro Vancouver’s affordable housing crisis from the perspective of the marginalized. As we will see below, it was the most personally affective encounter of my field work. Their story is evocative, but it represents a tiny fraction of the several hundred stories one could tell about households displaced from transit-rich rental neighborhoods in Metro Vancouver since 2011 (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), 2020b; Jones & Ley, 2016). 3.4 Syrian refugees at Whitgift Gardens 3.4.1 Operation Syrian Refugee As of September 2019, the Syrian civil war had resulted in 5.6 million registered Syrian refugees (UNHCR, 2019). Operation Syrian Refugee set a goal to settle more than 40,000 Syrian refugees in Canada (ISSofBC, 2017). The number of refugees around the world is expected to rise for the foreseeable future, and a major solution for the refugee crisis must be resettlement in new host countries (Esses, Hamilton, & Gaucher, 2017). Upon arrival, refugees need programs that help them obtain suitable housing, and the policy challenge of providing Syrian refugees with adequate and affordable housing is both international and extremely localized, with communities 56 and their institutions coping with the geopolitical consequences of the refugee crisis (Berti, 2015; Esses et al., 2017). More than 3,600 Syrians settled in BC from November 2015 to December 2016, with the majority in Metro Vancouver. Vulnerability criteria and need for protection determine the selection of GARs for resettlement in Canada. They often arrive without knowledge of English, recognized work experience, or preexisting family and social connections (Esses et al., 2017). Approximately 2,500 of the Syrians who landed in BC during this time were GARs, and providing them with housing search support was an essential settlement service (Sherrell, 2011). This was an exceptionally large number of GARs for whom ISSofBC had to find housing, exacerbated by an affordable housing shortage in Metro Vancouver. Whitgift had been an important site for GAR settlement since at least 2005, when there were empty units and rents were on par with federal and provincial housing support payments. GARs had a more stable source of income than other potential tenants, and according to ISSofBC staffer #1, the owners of Whitgift were lucky to have GAR tenants: “In 2009...those [rental units at Whitgift] are not all occupied, so basically one-bedroom’s price...750 CAD was average in that building.... So I think it was for that reason they were affordable.... They were lucky to have so many...families” (ISSofBC1). However, by 2015 the cost of renting in Metro Vancouver had increased dramatically. Economic and structural constraints made it challenging for ISSofBC housing search workers to find housing for Syrians. Increases in market rental rates made it difficult to find affordable housing suitable for large families, and the number of Syrians to house was overwhelming. According to data supplied by ISSofBC, from November 2, 2015, to December 31 2016, 1,824 Syrians were housed in Metro Vancouver. This was more than 2.7 times the average of 669 GARs from 2005 57 through 2012. The shortage of affordable housing made it practically impossible to find housing for everyone, as the quotations below indicate. The Syrians came...at that time when the market rent was going really high, you know, and there was no housing.... (ISSofBC1) Because we had a huge arrival of the clients.... Huge, really, we couldn’t find the places for all of them [in] permanent accommodation.... They were in Sandman [hotel] for about three months. Then they moved into different places. Because you know housing is really huge work, yeah, especially these days because the prices are going up and...our clients have limited amount of money from the government. (ISSofBC2) Family of three, they cannot pay rent for 1,500 CAD right? This is the problem. Now it’s everywhere. Before we say Surrey, it’s cheaper, Surrey is cheaper. Now Surrey, it’s like Burnaby, like Coquitlam. It’s same price as everywhere. So we don’t know what will happen. It’s so difficult. It’s so, so difficult. Because you know, like, I have a family, their income only 1,400 CAD without the child tax benefit, and the rent, 1,500 CAD and the landlord, he don’t accept family of five in two-bedroom. (ISSofBC3) The Syrians came...at that time when the market rent was going really high, you know, and there was no housing.... (ISSofBC1) ISSofBC staffers No.2 and No.3 noted that the Syrians were at times difficult to work with because they expected better quality housing than they could afford with their benefits. They 58 would often refuse offers and they had a cultural prohibition against living in basement suites, a significant source of affordable rental housing in Metro Vancouver (Mendez, 2011). Basements in Syria are for storage and are seen as unhealthy for people, and a Syrian would be embarrassed to tell people back home that they live in a basement. Our clients, they refuse basements because they have [a belief that living in a] basement, it’s not healthy, it’s not good, you cannot stay in the basement...it’s not for living, only for storage.... So we try to explain to them here it’s different... . But still...one of our clients, he say, “If my father or my mother call me, what you want me to tell them? I tell them I live in basement? ‘You live in Canada and you live in basement?’ Like, basement, oh my god.” (ISSofBC3) It was during these challenging circumstances that a Coquitlam Elected Official (hereafter Elected Official) lobbied Concert to provide a short-term solution. Concert bought Whitgift in 2012 for CAD57 million as a redevelopment property in anticipation of the opening of the Evergreen Line extension in 2016 (Goodman, 2012). Concert had initiated a high-density rezoning process with the City of Coquitlam, and the units offered to ISSofBC for the Syrians would be among the first demolished. In 2015 Concert offered the units on 1-year, fixed-term leases, and the Syrians would have to leave upon expiry. Volunteers cleaned and renovated derelict units at Whitgift to house approximately 26 Syrian families. In the context of the Syrian refugees...we convinced [Concert] to accept a group of Syrian refugee families on a short-term basis. So they took buildings that...had already failed and brought them back.... So the buildings they brought back were actually a subsidized rate.... (Elected Official) 59 ISSofBC housing search workers took this offer to the Syrians. They explained that their placement at Whitgift would be temporary, and that they would have to move out afterward. Because the units were large and rental rates were low, some Syrians accepted this temporary solution. Upon settlement at Whitgift, the obligation of ISSofBC to find permanent housing for these Syrians was satisfied, and they were not required to provide further housing search support. This was an unusual and admittedly less than ideal solution. ISSofBC usually avoided placing GARs into housing where eviction was guaranteed: They have some places but you know, they will [demolish] all the places. So [the building manager] say, “it’s... leased for one year only.... ” [The Syrians] know that. And the rent was so cheap. That’s why they accept...a three-bedroom for 800 CAD including everything. (ISSofBC3) We found, I call it...temporary permanent accommodation...they say, “Okay, we can help you. We can give these apartments to your clients for temporary time.” ... We explained to [the Syrians], and they agreed.... It’s very unusual because [Concert] said... “Okay, we still don’t have approval [for rezoning] I think for one year. Clients can go there and live...” and we said [to the Syrians], “Okay, in one year we will see what we can do....” That’s why we said to them, they will tear down those places. They are offering you for one year, for very, very cheap, two bedroom or three bedroom apartments. After that you have to move out. (ISSofBC2) The Syrians were offered above-ground accommodation large enough for their families at rents that would be impossible to find elsewhere. ISSofBC thus placed Syrians into so-called permanent housing, which freed housing search workers to support recently arrived GARs. Concert provided needed affordable housing and generated some revenue to cover holding costs 60 during a rezoning. Although the leases were for one year only, there was an informal understanding at ISSofBC that no one knew how long it would take to approve Concert’s rezoning. ISSofBC had placed GARs at Whitgift for years before the Syrians arrived, and experience had shown that tenancies could be extended. Before Syrians came, [Concert] said that we are going to redevelop, [but] they didn’t make clear which building they are going to demolish. So...to meet their own interests...they still want [renters]. At the same time, they want to...[protect] themselves with the rules and regulations. Like, “Okay, you’re only in for three months...or five months or six months,” things like that would be their strategy...we’re not finding any place for them.... So we put them in because there are six months, but there are also a lot of informal connections, saying, like, “Okay, they might be able to live [there] longer.” (ISSofBC1) After months in a Sandman hotel, the Syrians and ISSofBC housing search workers wanted a move into permanent accommodation. However, the Syrians’ options were well below their expectations for housing quality. One Syrian explained that although they had the right to refuse housing, and they were not forced from the hotel, they felt pressured to move, and they wanted permanent housing from which to begin integration into Canada. Murdie (2008) has noted how important stable housing is for refugees to successfully begin the settlement and integration process. The thing is, when you stay all this time in the hotel...about maybe six months in the hotel, and you just want to be settled. And they want you to move.... So sometimes you don’t have choice. Whatever they would offer to you, and if it’s something available, you just have to come and take it. So it’s kind of—we get—not pushed, but there’s no choice. And some of the 61 places we [saw], it’s not for human being...human can’t live in these facilities. (Syrian focus group participant) As we will see in the following section, one-year leases at Whitgift were coming to a dramatic end in May 2017. 3.4.2 Syrians’ evictions from Whitgift Gardens On May 25, 2017, I conducted a focus group discussion with eight Syrians from Whitgift at the Coquitlam office of ISSofBC, as part of a project examining PBR clusters in Metro Vancouver’s suburbs. I compensated ISSofBC for staff time to recruit participants and host the focus group. The focus group discussion lasted for 90 minutes, and I provided each participant with an honorarium. The purpose of the focus group discussion was to hear renters’ perception of neighborhood change following the opening of the Evergreen Line. All participants had regular contact with ISSofBC, as they were all recent refugees from Syria. Because none of the Syrians were fluent in English, a professional interpreter was present. The quotations below are the interpreter’s translation of participants’ comments; therefore, I do not attribute individual quotes. Participation in the labor force was limited, which was unsurprising given GAR status, caregiving responsibilities, brevity of time in Canada, and limited English comprehension. All participants were renters at Whitgift, and their average household size was five persons—much higher than the average Coquitlam renter household of two persons (Statistics Canada, 2016). 62 I must note here that it is difficult for me to convey the tension that was present in the room from the outset of this focus group. During the standard process of explaining participants’ ongoing consent and the purpose of the study, it became apparent that participants had come to the focus group discussion to talk about their evictions. Introductions and answers to warm-up questions included allusions to this shared problem. I did not know in advance that I was meeting with a group of people about to lose their first homes in Canada, forcing them to navigate their position at the bottom of an unfamiliar and unaffordable housing system. I had facilitated more than 50 small-group discussions, focus groups, and meetings, but I had never before experienced the intensity of emotion expressed in this group setting. This required a rapid and substantial shift in my position as facilitator and investigator. I started with a predetermined research question, but it became clear that the situation presented an entirely different and more complex set of challenges. I set aside my agenda and key themes, and listened with empathy to their fear and anger. I have attempted to communicate these emotions through the selected quotes below. Difficulty finding housing came as a surprise to participating Syrians. They expected financial support from government and rent-geared-to-income social housing. The challenges of finding work, learning English, and integration in Canada were expected, but it had never occurred to them that housing would be their greatest struggle. [W]hen we are still back [in Syria], we heard we’re going to get paid this amount of the money monthly. And then we’re going to get, government housing... [W]hen we are still back [in Syria], we heard we’re going to get paid this amount of the money monthly. And then we’re going to get, government housing... 63 It didn’t happen this way. We came in here, we stay in the hotel… a long time. We spend so much money and then we get forced to leave that hotel because we have to have a place. We want it to be settled so we can be adjusted with the new community, you know. This is other issues we thought we’re going to deal with. We didn’t know it was going to be the housing. You go to find the places, maybe it’s 1800, CAD for example. Okay, you said, that’s fine. When you go, it’s a basement. There is no fresh [air], there is no... sunshine coming [in].... Now we are dealing with two issues. Not just the...rent is high, but dealing with the house is not good. It’s not...suitable to live in a family with the kids. As of May 25, 2017, their fixed-term leases were ending and all participants were facing eviction within 3 months. Participants viewed the evictions with a mix of fear and anger. Efforts to find new housing had been unsuccessful, and their emotional strain was palpable. The way we are living now. I don’t have even [sleep], anxiety is getting so high. We are so nervous about it. I can’t even cook [for] my family. Our pain—where we going to go live? Participants faced multiple barriers in their search for housing, and a large rent increase. As noted previously, participants’ rents at Whitgift were artificially low. 64 We are looking for places. The thing is—the issue is, the rent is very high. The places we are looking, the rent is high compared what we are...getting paid.... We’re not going to have that much left if we pay that rent. We get paid, like, 2300 CAD...me and my wife...and [we] have one disabled child. If you calculate it...you pay rent, you pay the utilities, what other expenses, you know. What you end with? You end—sometimes end with nothing. Providing care for children and aging dependants limited the ability of nonworking participants to search for housing. Several participants and their family members faced physical and mental health challenges. The problem is with the language barrier, with the other issues, health issues, it’s kind of hard for us to manage and to look for other place. She has 9 and 11 years old [children]. When they come from school...they can’t stay by themselves in the house. Then she want to go with the little one...to look for a place. She has a senior, her father-in-law. Her husband has a full-time job, and think about as a woman with all these challenges, go and find a place [to live]. [I] have two disabled kids with special needs.... With the wheelchairs it’s very hard. Most participants faced eviction in July or August 2017, when the primary rental stock in Coquitlam was shrinking, becoming less available and more expensive (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), 2020b). However, having as a group lived in the area for less than 2 years, none of the participants were attached to the Burquitlam area. For them, remaining 65 in Coquitlam was unimportant; they needed affordable housing that was close to public transit and schools. We are not stuck in the Coquitlam. But we need good price...something affordable. Transportation to the school for the kids, you know, this is a big issue for us. Close to the school. Doesn’t have to be the same school they are now, others. All we are asking, like, a place to live...close to...transportation. At least we don’t have to spend money on transportation. Whitgift was affordable, and close to schools and public transit. Finding new housing had proved impossible for one participant and her family. With just over 1 month before eviction, a mother of two young children, providing care for her elderly father-in-law while her husband worked full time, considered refusing to leave when her lease expired. I don’t leave, what are they going to do? If [I] decided, I am not going to leave.... They can’t come and bring police and...take [us] outside...?! Being unable to find affordable housing for her family of five, she met the possibility of authorities evicting her into homelessness with a mixture of fear and defiance. 66 3.4.3 Housing rights met; housing needs continue Because the Sandman hotel placements were temporary, ISSofBC housing search workers were still required to find Syrians permanent housing, and moving them to Whitgift satisfied their right to housing search support. The housing search worker is responsible just for people who just arrived. So it is how it is. It is little bit difficult, you know, because per year we have about, I’d say 300, 400 families.... [W]e are responsible to find the very first place for our clients. So what they will do later, it’s up to them. (ISSofBC2) We are [required to] only help them they arrived here the first time. (ISSofBC3) Syrians at Whitgift and elsewhere continued to receive informal support from ISSofBC staff. During conflicts between Syrians and landlords, housing search workers intervened as interpreters. When affordable rental units became available, ISSofBC case managers in Coquitlam were informed. Case managers at the Coquitlam ISSofBC office advocated to BC Housing, regularly updating Syrians’ priority waiting list files, and they were remarkably successful at getting more than half of approximately 26 families at Whitgift into BC housing: [W]e are trying to push [their applications through] BC Housing. We are doing our best. We are getting...doctors’ letter...[regarding] their mental health...[to] speed up the applications. And we have been advocating as much as we can, but there are limitations.... (ISSofBC1) 67 According to ISSofBC staffer No.3, some of the Syrian families still living at Whitgift in 2017 bore responsibility for their housing problems. They imposed limitations on the housing offers they would accept, and they rejected housing in the City of Surrey, citing fear of violence, drugs, crime and overcrowding: It’s hard. But also, all our clients...even if you offer something for them, they don’t want to accept...let’s say for any family [being evicted from Whitgift, can have] your own place, affordable, in Surrey, they will say, “No”.... [When I say], “There is one place, affordable for you for a family of seven or a family of eight, in Surrey,” they will say, “No.” (ISSofBC3) ISSofBC staffers No.2 and No.3 expressed frustration over some Syrians’ failure to understand their place within the region’s housing system, mirroring participants’ expectation that adequate, affordable housing wouldn’t be an issue. Housing search workers were under immense pressure to find permanent housing for GARs, so when Syrians at Whitgift refused offers for BC Housing, this was particularly frustrating when one considers that ISSofBC was not required to provide further housing search support. Let’s say if now I tell the [Whitgift] people there is one BC Housing will accept you in Langley? They will say, “That’s far away. We don’t know. We don’t want to go there.” Or Pitt Meadows, or Port Coquitlam, they will say they want something near to everything and BC Housing.... Four [other] families refused BC Housing in Vancouver.... They say because it’s not a good area. (ISSofBC3) 68 This begs the question as to whether the Syrians should be expected to accept housing they deem substandard. ISSofBC staffer No.1 pointed out that after displacement by the violence of civil war in Syria, they abhorred the idea of moving their families to another space of perceived violence. In refusing to accept housing offers considered substandard, Syrians were advocating for themselves. They look at not only from housing, they look at more other resources, the school, or the settlement organization close by, SkyTrain is close by, right? ... And I do understand that, you know...? They are not in a position to say, “I want something else better than this....” I don’t get frustrated.... But yeah, I think some people would get frustrated.... But for me, I wouldn’t because I would see it from their perspective as well.... It’s not that they are difficult to work with. I think they are trying to just find better options, which I think everybody would do that.... I’m glad that they’re advocating for, you know, sustainable, better and affordable options. (ISSofBC1) 3.5 The natural reality of demolition and displacement at Whitgift According to the Elected Official, Whitgift had to be redeveloped because it was within 800 m of the Burquitlam SkyTrain station. TOD logic made it inevitable that thousands of PBR units in Burquitlam would eventually be demolished, and not doing so would be “stupid” (Elected Official). The Elected Official further argued that to avoid increased automobile use, population growth requires housing near rapid transit: 69 In a region like ours, you either rely on the automobile, in which case it doesn’t matter where the SkyTrain stations are, or you try to rely on transit more. We’re stuck right now, we’re about to add a million people over the next twenty-five years. They’re coming now...thirty or forty thousand people are coming every year to Metro Vancouver. And we have to build housing for them, or else my kids will have to move.... So we know we’re going to have to start building up instead of out.... Do we spread it out...or do we try to concentrate around rapid transit, which the rest of the world does...? Those communities [that don’t densify near transit] are stupid. (Elected Official) The Elected Official’s concern over the indirect displacement (Marcuse, 1985) of their children was revealing as it reflects a concern that Coquitlam’s current homeowners won’t see their children move into local homeownership. Without additional supply sufficient to meet the housing demand of wealthier newcomers, Coquitlam residents’ children might not be able to compete in the local housing market. This is somewhat ironic as indirect displacement was a concept originally developed to deepen our understanding of the gentrification pressures faced by the poor, but it was being used in this context to justify the direct displacement of the poor. The Elected Official had lobbied the BC provincial government to locate the Burquitlam station in an area mostly surrounded by single detached houses, avoiding TOD redevelopment pressure for the majority of PBR in Burquitlam. However, the provincial government decided to place the Burquitlam station by a strip mall surrounded by PBR. The Elected Official argued that this decision made the redevelopment of PBR buildings within 800 m of Burquitlam station a “natural reality.” 70 Wouldn’t it be nice if we could keep those [PBR] buildings, operate them in perpetuity? In fact during the discussions about the Evergreen Line, I had pushed hard to see if we could get the Burquitlam station built a block north...all surrounded by single-family. So you could then redevelop single-family neighborhoods into the kinds of condo that we’re talking about. And you would probably face some opposition from those single-family neighborhoods who...aren’t ready to move. But ultimately it would be a better land-use decision, because then you wouldn’t have any of the pressure associated with those rentals. You could keep them for five more years, those ones that are still viable.... But...the natural reality is that anything within 800 meters has to be high density residential, and Whitgift is actually quite a low density...it should be high density.... But the province makes those decisions.... And so because of one decision, we’re facing the demolition, the perhaps premature demolition of some of those units, of a good chunk of our rental housing. It’s necessary. We absolutely have to densify those sites. There’s no question in my mind that that has to happen. But...we could have been densifying a different set of sites and it would have been...hundreds of units, not thousands... that’s the frustration that we face...a better decision could have been made. It wouldn’t have been more costly for government.... It would have perhaps been more courageous for us [at the City of Coquitlam] to make that decision because we would be annoying a group of voters in a residential neighborhood. (Elected Official) The Elected Official was sympathetic to the situation of the Syrians and had been involved in lobbying Concert to rehabilitate Whitgift’s derelict units so that the Syrians could have housing, 71 if only for a year. However, the spatial logics of TOD overrode equity concerns about the displacement of renters from Burquitlam. According to a Coquitlam City Staffer (hereafter City Staffer), solving housing problems is traditionally the job of provincial and federal governments, not the City. This position was reportedly in keeping with the political philosophy of Coquitlam City Council. The City Staffer argued that no one has the right to refuse displacement and the situation in Burquitlam was simply one in which some “people need to move on and move out”: And the reality is yeah, these are older buildings. Because of that, the rents are less...so that lower rent can appeal to a household, recent immigrants, that don’t have a high income. But again, do we need to freeze that building, those rent levels to provide for those people on an ongoing basis? Is it now a broader society challenge or issue [that] is now being taken up by local government...? The other levels of government have greater resources and they’re more responsible for the whole economy and income levels and taxation.... We’ll help out. But it’s been a real reluctance for us to take on and solve one of society’s [problems]. And so in that [situation] people then need to move on and move out, maybe.... Personally, my [parents] had a house on the west side of Vancouver, nice and close to UBC [the University of British Columbia]. Think I can go afford to buy and live over there? ... You don’t have a God-given right to live in the community.... And that’s part of our society, right? (City Staffer) The City Staffer noted that the densification of Burquitlam presented a rare opportunity to leverage new PBR units from redevelopment. In recognition of the value generated by high-density redevelopment, renters displaced for TOD projects were entitled to support. Coquitlam’s 72 (2015) Housing Affordability Strategy required developers initiating a rezoning to provide the City with a tenant relocation plan: We’ve got a tenant relocation policy...we’re saying, “Look, Mr. Developer, you have some obligations to this. You got to be up front with the folks. You got to deal with them with sensitivity. You got to assist them. We’re asking you to do these things. If you want your project approved, step up and do your part....” We’re not going to take it to the extent that...you got to replace all those units at subsidized rates. That’s been our general response, and [maybe] that means that people need to move on and move through the community. (City Staffer) However, Syrians’ fixed-term leases at Whitgift excluded them from a tenant relocation plan because they faced eviction because of an expired fixed-term lease, not redevelopment. Considering the arguments above that position the demolition of Whitgift as inevitable, I note a glaring contradiction between this logic and actual TOD planning for Burquitlam. According to the Elected Official and the City Staffer, Burquitlam station’s location meant that all residential properties within 800 m are subject to high-density redevelopment. However, Coquitlam’s Transit-Oriented Development Strategy (Coquitlam, 2012) contradicted this logic. Well within the high-density residential 400 m core and 800 m shoulder of the Burquitlam station, a single-detached-dwelling area to the north was spared a high-density redesignation. The updated Burquitlam–Lougheed left unchanged 90% of single-detached areas (45% of total land area) while it redesignated more than 90% of PBR buildings in Burquitlam for high-density redevelopment (Coquitlam, 2017). As of February 2020, a land-use designation update was underway for the area to the north of Burquitlam, and the preferred land-use concept at that time 73 closely resembled the 2017 land-use designations of PBR areas of Burquitlam (Coquitlam, 2020a, 2020b). The City of Coquitlam deserves some credit for pursuing densification in an area of single detached homes, but the impact on renters was much more dramatic and swift. 3.6 Discussion and conclusion From 2014 to 2019, there was a net loss of 838 PBR apartments in Coquitlam, or more than 20% of Coquitlam’s total PBR stock. Of this total, 570 units were lost from the census tract in which Whitgift was located, representing a loss of more than 60% of PBR apartment units in this neighborhood (CMHC, 2020). The Syrians’ eviction and the demolition of Whitgift is an evocative example of processes taking place in Burquitlam and other PBR clusters in Metro Vancouver’s suburban centers, and stands an example of concerns that “TOD interventions could result in gentrification and the eventual displacement of low-income groups” (Padeiro et al., 2019, p. 735). In Metro Vancouver alone, thousands of aging, affordable PBR units face demolition because of decisions that locate TODs in residential rental areas. Arguments that transit investments inevitably and impartially increase residential densities fail when we consider context, particularly when single-detached homeowners are entitled to additional planning consultations whereas hundreds of renter households are displaced. The fact that these changes largely displaced the most vulnerable, including low-income people of color, is consistent with the burgeoning literature on TOD-induced gentrification (Cappellano & Spisto, 2014; Enright, 2013; Jones & Ley, 2016; Rayle, 2015). 74 The goals of TOD’s mixed-use, pedestrian-friendly streetscapes to deliver environmental, economic, social, and health benefits conflict with social equity concerns when thousands of vulnerable people are displaced. Similar to Shaw’s (2011) argument that mixed-income developments can be a Trojan horse for gentrification, I argue that narratives around the benefits of TOD obfuscate serious inequities, and provide cover for policies that would be indefensible under other circumstances. TOD policies and plans must foreground and address the potential for gentrification and displacement. This case study is but one incident in which rapid transit infrastructure, public policy, and private investment came together to spur gentrification in a low-income renter community, displacing those who most need access to transit. In discussing a volume of uncollected works by Jane Jacobs, Zipp and Storring argue, What Jacobs helps us to imagine is a just city that tries to manage the change that is inevitable in urban life...with plans and subsidies that preserve affordable space to live and work...[so] our society might be able to better manage urban transformation on behalf of those who stand to lose the most from it. (Brown University, 2016) It is reasonable to expect that older structures will succumb to the pressures of highest and best use near sites of major infrastructure developments. However, it is unreasonable to take a fatalistic position that further marginalization of the disadvantaged is a “natural reality” without implementing aggressive anti-displacement and affordable housing policies in advance of these inevitable changes. Significant capital has been generated from TOD projects, and a great deal has been captured by municipalities in Metro Vancouver through density bonus programs (Jones & Ley, 2016). To curtail land speculation in a future rapid transit corridor containing the region’s largest 75 concentration of PBR buildings, the City of Vancouver introduced Development Contribution Expectations (City of Vancouver, 2018). This policy was intended to add clarity to land acquisition policies, allowing purchasers to factor in the potential costs of providing required amenities when rezoning or density bonusing occurs. Factoring in these costs reduces the land residual in a development pro forma, reducing the potential for returns from land speculation. The City of Burnaby, once a prominent beneficiary of high-density redevelopment of PBR in TOD areas (Jones & Ley, 2016), is “pursuing one of the most progressive tenant assistance policies in the country” after the former mayor lost an election over housing issues in 2018 (City of Burnaby, 2019a). The revised tenant assistance policy will require applicants looking to rezone PBR buildings to provide housing search support, right to return at the same rent before displacement, monetary compensation, and moving assistance options (City of Burnaby, 2019b). Housing search support for GARs is an essential settlement service in Canada, but Operation Syrian Refugee revealed limitations in the obligation to provide housing search support only for the first permanent dwelling. In a rapidly changing urban region like Metro Vancouver, in the midst of an affordable housing crisis, that obligation was insufficient. During periods when an exceptionally large number of GARs arrived in a housing system with a shortage of affordable and suitable dwellings, one might expect that some of those housing placements would be short-term or unsuccessful. As evidenced in this study, displacement even after a full year can be traumatic, and some tenancies do not last that long. Although ISSofBC provided informal housing search support and advocacy for the clients in dispute with landlords, formal support from the federal government should be extended to agencies such as ISSofBC to increase their capacity to support clients whose first housing placements are temporary, or who come into 76 conflict with landlords. One might argue that temporary housing placements should be avoided altogether, but in urban regions like Metro Vancouver this may not be realistic. When options are limited to indefinitely living in a hotel, or in fixed-term permanent housing, the best choice for supporting the settlement process is unclear. Several municipalities in Metro Vancouver have tenant relocation support policies that entitle tenants displaced by redevelopment to support from rezoning applicants. However, the Syrians’ fixed-term leases excluded them from support because their eviction was predicated upon the expiry of a tenancy, not on redevelopment. In general, loopholes such as this should be avoided as much as possible, but if the Syrians had been entitled to additional supports, Concert might have been deterred from offering the units at all. In December 2017, the BC provincial government made it illegal to include a requirement that the tenant vacate a rental unit at the end of a fixed-term lease, except under specific circumstances (British Columbia, Provincial Government, 2018). Jurisdictions looking to require tenant relocation assistance should impose similar restrictions on fixed-term leases. Little is known about evictions in Canada and BC. New information from the Canadian Housing Survey (Statistics Canada, 2019) shows that 10% of all moves in BC are forced by eviction or bank foreclosure. Future research should investigate the incidence of forced moves for GARs to determine whether current federal supports are sufficient. Although it is beyond the scope of this study to follow the integration processes of displaced newcomers, the literature suggests that the disruption of eviction will have a negative effect, especially for refugees struggling to navigate Metro Vancouver’s expensive and tight rental market. A limitation of this study, and an unresolved challenge for the literature on displacement, is determining the ensuing housing 77 careers of those who are displaced (Chapple & Loukaitou-Sideris, 2019). This study is limited by a small sample size of key informants and focus group participants, in addition to a lack of quantitative analysis to measure neighborhood change. Focus group data revealed a singular story that would not be typical of all former Whitgift residents, as many would be in a stronger position and entitled to relocation support. However, the theoretical and methodological steps that led to the discovery of this case study were sound, and may be of use in future studies. Release of the 2021 Canadian Census will allow for a quantitative analysis of neighborhood change in Burquitlam following the opening of the Evergreen Line. Processes of transit-induced gentrification in North America will continue. Metro Vancouver’s next planned rapid transit expansion follows the Broadway Corridor in the City of Vancouver, through the region’s largest concentration of PBR buildings. Expanded rapid transit and residential densification are the future of North American cities, and academics, activists, planners, and politicians must work toward the equitable distribution of TOD’s benefits so that costs are not borne “naturally” by those least able to pay. 78 Chapter 4: Does a mayor matter? Gentrification, land use policy, and the 2018 mayoral election in Burnaby, BC 4.1 Introduction This article reviews a significant land use policy change in the City of Burnaby, following the electoral defeat of one of Canada’s most successful suburban mayors. After more than 30 years of uninterrupted electoral success, the Burnaby Citizens’ Assembly (BCA) lost the 2018 mayoral election and lost its Council majority through party resignations in 2020. In the political backdrop of the election was a controversial land use policy that led to the demolition of hundreds of aging, affordable, purpose-built rental (PBR) apartment units and a subsequent effort to extend high-density redevelopment into a concentrated neighbourhood of Burnaby’s vulnerable renters (Jones & Ley, 2016). Since the early 2010s, land use policy in Burnaby’s Metrotown has been a cause for political activism and opposition. Previous work has documented how residential densification has resulted in the displacement of renters, and condo-tower gentrification in Metrotown (Jones & Ley, 2016). In this article, I discuss the continued roll-out of densification policies and the political fallout of these processes. In particular, Burnaby’s long-serving mayor, Derek Corrigan (hereafter Corrigan) lost the 2018 election, while all seven of his incumbent Councillors won re-election. A change only in the mayor’s office led to a significant policy shift in Burnaby, with the rights of renters being recognized in ways not implemented by Council under the former mayor. 79 The local state has had an evolving relationship with gentrification, from its first to fifth wave manifestations. In this article, I argue that mayoral leadership is an important factor in these processes and that mayors can influence policy outcomes. At the same time, mayors must content with structural limitations as they wrestle with complex urban issues. The political and electoral landscape of Metro Vancouver, and Burnaby, is atypical for Canadian urban regions. The 2018 municipal elections were remarkably turbulent for incumbent mayors. Affordable housing was a top local election issue, and Corrigan had a history of assigning responsibility for affordable housing to senior levels of government. In the lead-up to an unprecedented market housing construction boom, Burnaby saw the loss of aging PBR housing units, and an apartment demolition rate second only to the City of Vancouver. During two on-the-record interviews in the summer of 2017, then-mayor Corrigan explained his support for the extension of policies already shown to contribute to gentrification and the displacement of Metrotown renters through a demarcation of local government responsibilities. In addition to the two extensive interviews with Corrigan, this research is informed by sustained observation starting in 2013 of the Metrotown conflict, including close readings of municipal documents and media accounts, attendance at public events, observation of activist interventions, and interviews with housing stakeholders. Corrigan argued that affordable housing, preventing renter evictions, and refugee housing are not the responsibility of local government. In doing so he referenced his childhood as a low-income renter, argued that personal choices can lead to poverty, and revealed a policy preference for Burnaby homeowners as a re-election consideration. 80 What is striking about this stance is that Corrigan is a long-standing social democrat, with strong ties to BC’s provincial New Democratic Party (NDP). Also striking is that after Corrigan’s election defeat, his intact electoral coalition on City Council unanimously supported a significant policy change in Metrotown introduced by his successor. With a change only to the mayor’s office, the City of Burnaby recognized the rights of renters in Metrotown. 4.2 Background: Growth and change Burnaby is a suburban city with a population of approximately 233,000 in 2016, one-third the population of the City of Vancouver, representing 9.5% of the population of the Metro Vancouver region (Statistics Canada, 2017). From 2011–2016, Burnaby’s population grew by 4.3%, with a net gain fueled entirely by international migration. Half the population of Burnaby are immigrants, and a large majority of immigrants in Burnaby landed in Canada after 1991. Jones and Ley (2016) documented processes of suburban gentrification in Burnaby, intensifying in recent years. Their study showed that a text amendment in 2011 to Burnaby’s zoning bylaw doubled achievable residential densities in Metrotown, a major suburban centre, leading to a wave of PBR demolitions and tenant displacement. Metrotown contains Burnaby’s densest and lowest-income census tract and is a key regional landing site for recent immigrants (Ley & Lynch, 2012; Jones & Ley, 2016). By 2016, the limits of high-density redevelopment potential under the existing Metrotown neighbourhood plan were being approached. The City of Burnaby initiated a process to re-designate maximum achievable rezoning density for all remaining moderate-density PBR in the district from approximately four storeys, to a minimum of 12 81 storeys. On 9 May 2016, Burnaby’s Director of Planning and Building submitted the Draft Metrotown Downtown Plan (MDP) to Council for endorsement as a basis for receiving public input (City of Burnaby, 2016). The first round of public input took place between May and September 2016. Over 150 Public Opinion Surveys were submitted digitally, and City staff met with 22 groups. Of these 22 meetings, 7 were located in Metrotown and I attended 4 of those meetings as a member of the audience. Public input identified displacement and access to affordable housing in Metrotown as the number-one concern (City of Burnaby, 2016). However, a report to Council stated that affordable housing was addressed by other city-wide policies, and therefore, these issues would not be considered in further MDP public consultation. The final version of the MDP contained no mention of displacement or access to affordable housing for current residents, but allowed for the possibility of adding non-market housing in every rezoning decision, potentially adding significant value to redevelopments that contain non-market housing units (City of Burnaby, 2017). Corrigan had an extraordinary record of long-term public endorsement, being on Burnaby City Council since 1987 and winning five concurrent mayoral elections since 2002. However, he lost the 2018 mayoral election to Mike Hurley, a retired firefighter with no political experience. Hurley campaigned on a platform opposed to the displacement of renters in Metrotown and, despite the fact that seven BCA Councillors achieved re-election in 2018, by 2019 the City of Burnaby was pursuing one of Canada’s most progressive policies to protect renters from displacement (City of Burnaby, 2018, 2019). This article theorizes how Corrigan’s election loss changed Burnaby’s approach to a neighbourhood-level redevelopment policy that could lead to gentrification and displacement. 82 Graham (2018) argues that mayors are uniquely positioned to drive a municipal agenda, and according to Taylor and Eidelman (2010, p. 974), “the intimate scale of urban governance, policy development and outcomes cannot be abstracted from the personalities of individual actors.” Not least surprising is Corrigan’s political history as a life-long social democrat with strong ties to the NDP of BC. In a striking case of what Marwyn Samuels (1979) called the biography of landscape, I consider the role Corrigan played in the (re)making of Metrotown’s landscape through the development of very tall condominium towers with minimal compensation for displaced renters. Again, it is worth noting that after the 2018 election, a change only to the mayor’s office and one Council seat led to unanimous support for a major shift in the City’s approach to tenant displacement. 4.3 Literature review 4.3.1 Gentrification and the local state Lees and Ley (2008) argue that the approach of local governments towards gentrification has changed from ambivalence to becoming a significant policy tool since Ruth Glass (1964) described the gentrification process. To make sense of this shift, Hackworth and Smith (2001) proposed a three-wave model of gentrification, each separated by a brief recessionary pause. Allowing for temporal and spatial variation, the first wave of gentrification took place between 1950 and 1973 in a highly sporadic fashion (Aalbers, 2019). The second wave of gentrification took place from 1978 through 1988, while the third wave began in 1993 after the recession of the 83 early 1990s. This wave model of gentrification has been extended to a fourth wave in the early 2000s, and a fifth wave following 2007 (Lees et al., 2013; Aalbers, 2019). In the first wave, local governments had to be swayed from slum clearance and urban renewal towards the preservation of urbanity in old neighbourhoods (Lees & Ley, 2008). Deindustrialization, capital flight, and the recession of the 1970s changed the urban fabric of North American cities, creating opportunities for profit in devalorized inner-city areas (Smith, 1996; Fainstein, 2001). The failure of modernist planning, in which the central city had to retain primacy, led to a crisis of meaning in the built environment as urban governments were unable to cope with rapid change (Hardwick, 1974; Ley, 1997). The rise of white-collar work in the city and the cultural values of the new middle class drove the consumption of urban land. In the early 1990s after the collapse of the commercial real estate market, there was speculation that gentrification would stop being an important urban process (Bourne, 1993; Fainstein, 2001). The resurgence of gentrification in the 1990s disproved the thesis that second-wave gentrification was a temporary readjustment (Berry, 1985; Wyly & Hammel, 1999). The third wave of gentrification took advantage of opportunities created by the 1990s recession, growing access to credit for inner-city housing, and the end of redlining practices (Hackworth & Smith, 2001; Newman & Wyly, 2006). Large developers became more involved in gentrification and the local state, experiencing devolution and budget cuts, chose to form partnerships with private capital in order to achieve urban development goals (Hackworth & Smith, 2001). Wyly and Hammel (1999) argued that understanding the third wave was a task of decoding the role of the state in facilitating gentrification, as a global process through which local governments could 84 achieve their competitive urban development goals in partnership with financial capital and large scale developers (Lees & Ley, 2008). Lees et al. (2013) observed fourth-wave gentrification in the United States (US) in the early 2000s, associated with an intensified financialization of housing. Aalbers (2019) notes that in the fifth wave, gentrification is global in scope, inflating house prices and rents in locales beyond gentrifying neighbourhoods. In the fifth wave, the local state increasingly acts as a naturalized “sponsor but also a direct agent of gentrification” (Aalbers, 2019, p. 7). Loopmans (2008, p. 2500) argues that in gentrification research, “the [local] state continues to be treated as a Black box whose internal processes deserve little or no investigation.” Shaw (2004, p. 185) argues that the local state can play a key role in gentrification processes, going so far as to state that progressives must, “become involved in local government.” This article builds on work by Jones and Ley (2016) documenting gentrification and displacement in Metrotown, to peer inside the black box of city leadership. 4.4 What are mayors and who do they represent? There is an archetype of the Canadian elected official – male, White, middle-class, middle-aged, Christian, Canadian-born, and majority-language speaking ... This is clearly the dominant pattern – the archetype. But we also see what we might call emerging archetypes of greater diversity... (Andrew et al., 2009, p. 18–19) 85 Most Canadians live in major cities that are the principal locus of population growth through international immigration. Federal and provincial politics regularly address matters important to cities, and municipal politicians are an increasingly significant part of Canada’s political decision-making system (Andrew et al., 2002; Andrew et al., 2009). Canadian city governments, “are on the front lines in responding to national problems, but still on the sidelines when it comes to intergovernmental policy debates and fiscal negotiations” (Lucas & Smith, 2019, p. 14). Kirkland (2017, p. 1) asserts that, “mayors are unquestionably important but also understudied political actors,” who influence policy outcomes. In this section, I draw from studies of mayors in the US, Canada, and Europe to discuss some common factors that may influence a mayor’s priorities when in office, with the acknowledgement that national context will have an influence on mayoral politics and actions. Social status and stratification affect an individual’s political career, from recruitment to the office that one eventually holds (Matthews, 1954). Steyvers and Medir (2018) found that European mayors were disproportionately highly educated, middle-aged men from high-status professions, with strong ties to their locality. Women’s more limited participation in high-status professions might consequently lead to their underrepresentation in local government office. In Vancouver from the 1930s through the1960s, a successful business career was the surest path to elected office, and almost all elected candidates were business people (Gutstein, 1975; Tennant, 1980). A major shift came in the late 1960s over a conflict to build a freeway through Vancouver’s Chinatown. A broad liberal coalition formed in opposition, and The Electors’ Action Movement supplanted the Non-Partisan Association’s (NPA) majority on Council (Ley, 86 1980). Their ascendance diminished the importance of a business background for electoral success, and by the late 1970s, a professional background was preferred. Although social background can affect one’s electoral success, those who differ from the mayoral archetype can successfully hold office (Steyvers & Medir, 2018). Once elected, there is some uncertainty as to whether the background of mayors influences their priorities. Mayors with a business background tend to spend less on housing and community development, and spend more on roads (Kirkland, 2017). The race and gender of policymakers have been found to influence policy outcomes in US state legislatures and American cities (Besley & Case, 2003; Holman, 2014; Nye et al., 2014). Mayors may devote themselves to defending a high level of welfare provision, but in doing so, define those they consider insiders and outsiders. The recognition of outsiders’ rights depends on the, “local milieu and on the personal attitude of the mayor” (Cabria et al., 2018, p. 257-258, emphasis added). Canadian cities are increasingly diverse, with recent immigration trends favouring source countries in South and East Asia. Cabria et al. (2018, p. 258) found that European mayors of cities with high levels of immigration and ethnic diversity either “acknowledge the situation and assume their responsibilities,” or “absolutely deny the issue.” Canadian Mayors and Councillors from large urban areas have been shown to be more concerned with social issues and more willing to develop welfare provisions to address social inequities (Lucas & Smith, 2019). Certain issues are of importance to every municipality—such as policing, waste management, and water supply—but larger cities must contend with these issues and more. As municipalities increase in size, homelessness, housing, and immigrant settlement become more important responsibilities for local politicians. 87 4.4.1 Agency of mayors Mayors operate in contexts of constrained agency, subject to the powers of senior levels of government, national politics, limited tax revenue options, collective bargaining agreements, and long-term contracts. Partial jurisdiction over North American cities by senior levels of government limit the effects of local politics and the influence that mayors can have (Ferreira & Gyourko, 2009; Kirkland, 2017). Canadian provinces are more interventionist than US states, often acting without the explicit approval of municipal Councils and voters (Sancton, 2002). City revenue primarily comes from local property taxes, and Tiebout (1956) argues that partisanship is disciplined at the local level by citizens’ ability to “vote with their feet” and move to jurisdictions with favourable tax regimes (Ferreira & Gyourko, 2009). Peterson (1981) argues that municipalities with generous redistributive policies attract poor, unemployed residents. The relationship between local governments and each province in Canada is subtly different. Municipalities are positioned under the provinces in the Canadian constitution, making them creatures of the provinces. However, this label supports a diminished view of their role in setting policy and simplifies the complex position that municipalities occupy in Canadian policymaking (Lucas & Smith, 2019). With limited power and resources, mayors must contend with some of the most intractable social problems (Schragger, 2005). According to Graham (2018, p. 251), “[m]ayors are among the most important, and least understood, political leaders in Canada.” Dahl (1961) argues that in order to be productive, a mayor needs to use a range of social skills because they lack the authority to command. In a strong mayor system, the mayor holds some executive power, whereas in a weak mayor system the office is largely ceremonial with executive power invested in the city manager. Urbaniak (2014) argues that Canadian mayors are 88 generally weak because they lack power that makes them distinct from other Councillors. In contrast, Graham (2018) observes that Canadian mayors typically exercise executive-type duties. Rather than being institutional, the extent of mayoral power is person-specific, emerging from relationship dynamics vested in the individual. A mayor can play an important role in politics beyond the municipality by articulating the city’s interests to senior levels of government (Greenstein, 1967). Rather than having weak mayors, Graham (2018) argues Canada has weak cities because federalism lacks a formal collective voice for mayors to advance urban interests in national policy discussions. In the American context, the mayor is weak by design, as Progressive Era reforms almost entirely eliminated the mayor’s office in favour of a council and city manager system (Schragger, 2005). Notable exceptions to this trend can be found (Royko, 1971). The rise of the suburbs further cemented the role of urban governance as primarily administrative or technical, suppressing political power to avoid the messy politics of the central city (Schragger, 2005; Peck, 2011). In the City of Vancouver, formal and tacit power wielded by the mayor has fluctuated greatly over time (Tennant, 1980). Elections are one of the most important checks on a mayor’s power. Traditional theory suggests that preferences of politicians should not influence policy outcomes because re-election strategies would dictate a convergence towards the median voter (Downs, 1957). However, the election of a mayor matters because different leaders may produce divergent outcomes (Kirkland, 2017). When an election defeats an incumbent mayor, policies that have been held back by the previous mayor and their electoral coalition may be implemented (Wolman et al., 89 1996). In the incident described below, a mayor alone was defeated while his electoral coalition remained intact, and yet, the election led to significant policy change. 4.5 Metro Vancouver’s electoral context Despite being Canada’s third-largest metropolitan area, Metro Vancouver’s regional governance is unlike that of any other Canadian urban region. The trend across Canada has been towards amalgamated mega-cities, but in Metro Vancouver this trend has been resisted in favour of a regional government to manage region-wide policies (Smith, 2017). Metro Vancouver is currently made up of 21 municipalities, one Electoral Area, and one First Nation, being a rare vestige of two-tier metropolitan systems of governance that were popular during the 1950s to early 1970s (Sancton, 2005; Metro Vancouver, 2019a). Unlike the rest of Canada where non-partisan local elections are the rule, local political parties are the norm for Metro Vancouver (Sancton, 2005). Also unlike other metropolitan areas, municipal elections in Metro Vancouver are held at-large, using a “first-past-the-post” system in which the candidates with a plurality of votes win election. Voters have as many votes as there are positions to fill on Council, but this was not always the case. In the 1930s, an anti-left movement forced a plebiscite to abolish the ward system in favour of an at-large system to counter the electoral threat posed by the Co-operative Commonwealth Federation (CCF), the precursor of the NDP. The at-large vote carried and all wards merged into a citywide jurisdiction, putting the CCF at a disadvantage in local elections (Bloemraad, 2008; Smith, 2017). The NPA became the dominant party, holding a majority of positions on City Council for 90 the next 30 years. At-large elections tend to benefit “the largest cohesive voting group, allowing it to take all, or nearly all, of the positions even if the group itself is a minority among actual voters” (Tennant, 1980, p. 6). Several court decisions in the US have concluded that at-large elections are discriminatory (Smith, 2017). 4.6 Burnaby’s 2018 municipal election Until recently in Burnaby, the social-democratic BCA dominated city politics. The BCA won their first majority on Council in 1987, and won the mayor’s office, every seat on Council, and every school board seat in the 2008, 2011, and 2014 municipal elections, boasting “a record unprecedented in local politics in Canada” (Smith, 2017, p. 156). Despite this impressive record, in September 2018, two months before the election, Whitzman (2018) noted that informants did not expect Corrigan and his Councillors to survive the next election. Remarkably, Corrigan lost by a large margin, but all BCA Council incumbents won re-election. The 2018 BC local elections were unusually turbulent for mayors. Across BC, 41% of mayoral seats were won by incumbents, the lowest rate of the last four municipal elections (Civic Info BC, 2021). In Metro Vancouver’s 21 mayoral elections, 13 mayors opted not to run for re-election and only 24% of mayoral seats were won by incumbents in 2018. At least 67% of seats went to incumbents in the three previous elections. Of the eight incumbent mayors who ran for re-election, five won. Of the three who lost, the single-term incumbent mayor of Pitt Meadows was embroiled in a scandal and suffered a landslide defeat (Schmunk, 2018; Corbett, 2020), and the two-term incumbent mayor of Port Moody lost by a margin of fewer than 400 votes (Civic 91 Info BC, 2021). Burnaby’s five-term incumbent mayor, who won the previous three elections with at least 68% of votes, received only 41% of the votes in 2018, losing to Hurley’s 53% (Civic Info BC, 2021). From 2008–2018, Burnaby saw a steady increase in voter turnout rates and the number of ballots cast (Civic Info BC, 2021). The largest increase for voter turnout happened between the 2014 and 2018 elections, with 8,478 more ballots cast, a jump from 27% voter turnout to 32%. The Stop Demovictions Burnaby campaign took credit for higher voter turnout as a result of their almost four-year opposition campaign (Red Braid Alliance, 2018). I observed this movement engage in marches, submit reports to Council, occupy a building slated for demolition, and convene community members to attend public hearings to oppose Metrotown rezoning approvals. Although their assertion about voter turnout cannot be proved, Urbaniak (2014) argues that mobilization efforts by an interest group can appear threatening to an incumbent. 4.6.1 Housing and Burnaby’s election Prior to the 2018 municipal elections, many of the suburban municipalities surrounding the City of Vancouver had developed social housing and affordable rental programs (Whitzman, 2018). Despite this trend, Corrigan maintained in interviews that affordable housing was not a responsibility of local government. He was correct, social housing provision was the responsibility of the federal government until all new federal funding for social housing was terminated in 1993 (Pomeroy & Falvo, 2013). Since that time, provincial support for affordable housing has declined, but there were at least two key ways in which Corrigan’s approach was out 92 of alignment with current thinking. The Federation of Canadian Municipalities (FCM) lobbies the federal government for affordable housing support (Federation of Canadian Municipalities, 2020). However, the FCM also recognizes the need to, “protect residents of market rental housing from displacement through demolition and rent-inflating practices,” and calls on, “all orders of government together… [to] drive solutions to these housing challenges.” (Federation of Canadian Municipalities, 2019, p. 14, emphasis in original). Lucas and Smith (2019) show that leaders of larger cities across Canada see a role for local government in affordable housing policy. Apartment construction in Burnaby boomed in 2016 and 2017 (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, 2020a). Figure 3 shows that in 2017, Burnaby was on track to surpass the City of Vancouver in its regional share of apartment starts in 2020. Figure 4 shows that from 1990–2020, Burnaby’s stock of pre-2000s PBR units declined by 30%, with the most recent decline beginning in 2013. This older rental stock can offer affordable market rental options (Jones & Ley, 2016). From 2014–2018, an average of 164 apartments per year were demolished in Burnaby, with many of these demolitions concentrated in Metrotown. Although this was just over half the number of apartment demolitions in the City of Vancouver, apartment demolitions in Burnaby dwarfed all other Metro Vancouver suburban municipalities (Metro Vancouver, 2019b). 93 Figure 3. Share of apartment starts in Vancouver and Burnaby as a percentage of apartment starts in Metro Vancouver, 1990-2020. Adapted from CMHC Starts and Completions Survey (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) 2020a). 94 Figure 4. Percent change in purpose-built rental units built before 2000 in Metro Vancouver’s top six PBR Municipal Markets, 1990-2020 (1990 base year). Adapted from CMHC Rental Market Survey (Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) 2021). An independent poll conducted a few days before the October 2018 election found that housing was a key factor in mayoral support. Housing concerns such as affordability (40%), Metrotown demovictions (9%), and homelessness (5%) were major election issues. Voters whose top issue was housing affordability showed strong support for Hurley (Justason Market Intelligence, 2018). During the summer of 2017, I conducted two on-the-record, 90-minute interviews with Corrigan. The excerpts below are from those interviews. The Mayor spoke frankly, and on both occasions explicitly waived his right to anonymity. During these interviews, Corrigan justified his support 95 for the gentrification of Metrotown, demarcated the boundaries of his responsibility to marginalized Metrotown renters, and revealed a bias in appealing to the interests of Burnaby’s homeowners for electoral success. 4.7 Corrigan’s perspective 4.7.1 The power of personal narrative The BCA started as a local branch of the NDP, maintains strong ties to the provincial NDP, and often uses the federal and provincial parties’ orange branding for promotional materials (Ball, 2018). One commenter went so far as to call the BCA a “farm team” for the provincial NDP (Mackin, 2018). These connections are evident from the electoral history of the Burnaby-Deer Lake provincial riding, created in 2009. The first election was won by NDP candidate Kathy Corrigan, former BCA Councillor and Corrigan’s wife. This seat was held until 2017, when it was succeeded by NDP candidate Anne Kang, a BCA Councillor under Corrigan at the time of the election (Ip, 2016). Although a staunch social democrat, Corrigan argued that local governments are not in a position to protect renters from displacement, citing childhood experience to explain this apparent contradiction. When asked to consider the human cost of displacement, Corrigan referenced growing up in a female-headed, lone-parent renter household, where moving regularly was inevitable: 96 It’s a tough world … My family never owned a house. All the time I was growing up, we lived in basement suites or we lived above stores. My mother was a single parent … I went to seven elementary schools. I moved at least 20 times over the course of my life. I know exactly what it’s like to be dislocated and to move from place to place. I know what it’s like to change schools … I am not insensitive to the issues that impact people, but being a renter, that’s the reality of your life … [T]here is adversity in the world … and all of us have to face it. It’s one of the things that all of us have to deal with … And nobody … in our society, is entitled to anything. Corrigan disputed renters’ right to stay put (Newman & Wyly, 2006), arguing that everyone is subject to market forces that determine residential location—a logic that applied to him as much as to Metrotown renters: So when I moved out here … I had to accept that my family was going to live someplace that wasn’t in Vancouver. I was born in Vancouver, raised in Vancouver, went to school in Vancouver, but I wasn’t going to be able to live in Vancouver … I was a lawyer … It did me absolutely no good to scream, pout, stamp my feet and say, “Vancouver owes me the right to live in Vancouver.”… because that’s not the way life works … you’re not owed anything in our system … you have to be able to go find a place where you can live where you’re going to be able to afford, and that’s what I did. 97 Corrigan argued that for decades federal and provincial governments have neglected the housing system and it was unfair to blame Burnaby for displacement in Metrotown, because senior levels of government had not intervened in the affordable housing crisis, despite having the resources to do so. Corrigan argued that local government is not responsible for affordable housing, and poverty can be a result of personal choice. I think it’s unfair to put the burden on me of individuals who are affected by moving out of places where they’ve been evicted … Is that my fault?… [W]e want to make life fair. But life isn’t fair … and the reality is that … people make a lot of choices in their life about where they’re going to go, what they’re going to do … Some people desperately want to go to school and get a higher education. They definitely want to do everything they can to increase their opportunities in life, and some people say, “I’ve had enough of school … I’m happy to get a job as a server, and I don’t want anybody bugging me about what I’m going to do …” But your expectations have to be different … as [to] what you’re going to get out of your life if … you don’t want to put those responsibilities of education and trades … on yourself, then you’re always going to be struggling to be able to find accommodation. You’re unlikely … to be able to buy a home. And you could … say that those … are just the realities of the … directions people take in their lives. 98 When challenged on making an equivalence between himself and Metrotown renters, Corrigan saw the line of questioning as unworthy of academic study: Interviewer: What about putting yourself in the position of some of the people who are basically in the situation where they cannot find anywhere else… that’s a very different reality from not being able to buy a house on the Westside. Corrigan: [Y]ou’re an academic, and … I’m surprised somehow that you bring it down to the most base argument of angst over the individual who has the problem. I mean that isn’t very academic. Corrigan was asked to consider how Burnaby’s policies had increased redevelopment pressure on Metrotown’s rental buildings, leading to hundreds of displaced renter households. I pointed out that the options available to a young, white, male, lawyer in the 1970s were different than those for a recent immigrant or refugee family living in aging low-cost rental housing in the suburbs in 2017. Corrigan argued that refugee settlement in Metro Vancouver was not only unfair to refugees who struggle in a housing system in crisis, but also to existing residents with limited means who must compete for affordable housing. The federal government makes a commitment to bringing refugees over here. What they don’t make a commitment to is providing housing for refugees … I’ve told this to the Immigration Minister, “It’s all well and good that you take credit world-wide for being 99 this generous country that brings refugees in. But then you dump them into local municipalities in areas like Vancouver that have too many people already and don’t have enough housing to be able to accommodate them. What makes you think that Vancouver is a place to put refugees?…” [B]ut I don’t have power over those things … and yet, you want me to … feel responsible for the reality of other orders of government doing things that make no sense? … [The] federal government … fund[s] a refugee for one year. Now, if you think that you can make a person capable of living in our society in one year … you’ve determined that these people are on a path in which they are going to be destitute … I can’t understand why anybody would assume that sending refugees to a place like Vancouver that has a massive housing crisis makes any sense for anyone … But what it does do is it displaces people. You know, the existing problems you’ve got are exacerbated. Now, the people who were of modest means, and there were relatively few housing units available to them are in competition with new people coming in who have exactly the same ability to pay. Well, that is a recipe for disaster. 4.7.2 We can’t protect renters… BC’s Residential Tenancy Act (RTA) establishes the legal framework that governs tenant-landlord relations and the City of Burnaby operated according to that framework (Residential Tenancy Branch, 2002). Burnaby’s tenant assistance policy in 2017 went beyond RTA requirements, but admittedly, it was not enough to offset the costs of displacement. Corrigan expressed sadness that families were displaced by market forces facilitated by Burnaby’s policy 100 interventions, and reflected on childhood experiences of displacement. However, he argued that laws apply equally to everyone, and insecure tenure is the reality of being a renter: It is sad when anyone is displaced from where they live … When I was a kid, and I had to leave the school I was in … I never liked it … But the reality is that if you are of modest means, those are the choices you make … and the [security of] tenure that you’ve got as a renter is extremely limited in our society … I spent my life as a lawyer. And … the reality is that the law has to treat people equal … And if the law is being applied to you, it’s being applied to you whether you’re rich, or you’re poor. If someone has a right to evict a tenant, then under our laws, they do so. Now, do I want to see them changing laws? Yes, I would like to see them change laws. But I don’t control that … so what we do … in our situation is that if you’re getting evicted out of a place that’s being demolished and rezoned where we’ve got some control over the rezoning, we’ve required longer notice periods, more compensation to people. But it’s—it’s a relative band-aid, you know, in regard to the issues that people are facing … But it’s one thing we can do to try to get some of the profit to the people that are already existing in that building. 101 4.7.3 But we will protect single family dwellings, for voters When asked about whether the MDP could speed processes of displacement in Metrotown, Corrigan acknowledged that as a politician, some decisions were influenced by re-election concerns. The roots of the land-use conflict at the centre of this paper were identified in the late 1990s. Planners’ ambitions to double Burnaby’s population ran counter to residents’ interest in “traditional low-density suburban attributes” (Skaburskis & Geros, 1997, p. 40–41). Residents viewed change happening around them negatively. Most wanted to see the suburban quality of their neighbourhoods protected and would only support the development of single-family homes. Skaburskis and Geros (1997, p. 43) predicted that, “If local planning authorities want to create higher density neighbourhoods, they will encounter serious opposition from citizens who see themselves as long-term residents and who may organize to preserve the traditional character of their subdivisions.” High-density redevelopment around transit stations represents a pro-growth bargain with Burnaby homeowners resistant to change. In pursuing growth, densification was imposed on a low-income renter neighbourhood, and homeowners saw their single-family neighbourhoods explicitly spared: Burnaby has taken all of its [SkyTrain] stations and has focused growth around those stations. We did so in consultation with our community, because our community said … “We don’t want our single-family areas compacted. We don’t want those transitioned [to higher density]. So, what we want you to do is focus growth around the SkyTrain, leave our residential … areas [alone]...” It made sense. It was a way in which we could achieve our growth objective, but at the same time not offer significant disruptions to what was a bedroom community … And, so, they saw the benefits of the growth and the intensity of 102 the Town Centres close to them, but they didn’t see the negatives of that growth affecting them in their own community. I wouldn’t have been elected 10 times if I wasn’t listening to my community. And that’s the degree of naivety that you have when you’re an academic … You don’t have to answer to anybody. You don’t have to get elected. You don’t have to go out and convince the community to take a direction. You don’t have to deal with the realities of inserting significant growth into a community … People understand what the academics and the far-left can’t get, because the people in the community understand … They’ve known me for 30 years. They know that I’m not a bullshitter. Corrigan’s position to favour homeowners was politically reasonable. In general, homeowners are more motivated than renters to participate in local government matters and they often do so in order to protect property values (McCabe, 2016). Fischel’s (2001) homevoter hypothesis first gave name to these interests, and further argued that renters are less invested in local political outcomes because they lack the substantial equity and debt concerns of homeowners. In addition to having higher rates of local political participation motivated by self-interest, homeowners have been shown to oppose densification policies (Pleger, 2017). The average sale price of a single-family dwellings (SFD) in Burnaby and throughout Metro Vancouver had increased markedly in the years leading up to 2017 (Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver, 2017). For many homeowners this was a windfall, but increasing property values increase property taxes if rates remain constant. The City of Burnaby dropped its residential tax 103 rate from $2.0119 per $1,000 of assessed value in 2016, to $1.5874 per $1,000 in 2017. In addition to protecting SFD homeowners from densification, property tax rates were reduced so as not to force them into selling high-value properties. [P]roperty taxes can put average homeowners out of their home. I’ve got citizens in my city who are sitting in a 1200-square-foot home on two million dollars’ worth of property on a fixed income. Now, am I going to try to create equity by taxing the crap out of that guy? … Am I going to say, “No, you sell and get out”? Well, that’s contra-indicative for a long political career to be taking that attitude towards people. In the American context, suburbia has been described as a haven from big-city problems, but suburbs are not free from struggle and contradiction (Peck, 2011). In order to remake a low-income rental neighbourhood into Burnaby’s new downtown, density and growth were directed in ways that would protect SFD homeowners from the disruptions of redevelopment. In navigating a pro-growth future while appeasing interests of suburban homeowners, Burnaby sought a middle way of targeted growth (Knox, 2008). Corrigan understood that Burnaby’s land-use policies contributed to gentrification and the displacement of renters, but he supported this policy direction for reasons both personal and political. Burnaby’s 2018 election results showed that Corrigan had misjudged the issue and he was badly defeated at the ballot by a virtually unknown political newcomer (Campbell, 2018). 104 4.8 Conclusion Corrigan’s election loss was followed by at least two significant developments. The first is that Mayor Hurley secured unanimous support from Corrigan’s BCA Councillors for one of the most progressive renter assistance policies in Canada. The second event took place in 2020, when three of seven BCA Councillors resigned from the party. One analysis opined that some Councillors’ lingering loyalty to Corrigan prevented them from working effectively with Hurley (Tanner, 2020). In February 2020, the BCA’s 30-plus year run of holding the mayoral seat and Council majority ended. These major shifts in Burnaby’s policy and political landscape lend credence to arguments that mayors can exert a greater degree of influence than might be assumed for Canada’s mayoral system. Metrotown renters are now entitled to a greater degree of support when they are displaced from PBR apartment buildings. The rights of Metrotown renters to stay put, which were omitted from the MDP, have been recognized in policy. Corrigan’s stance on the limits to a large city’s responsibility appears incongruent with current thinking. As cities grow larger, local leaders increasingly see issues such as affordable housing as municipal responsibilities. The FCM seems to agree, and a survey of Burnaby voters clearly showed that affordable housing was a major 2018 local election issue. Burnaby’s displacement-demolition-redevelopment policy was supported by Corrigan for several years and his personal attitudes influenced his demarcation of Metrotown renters’ rights (Cabria et al., 2018). The contradiction of a pro-growth position and social-democratic NDP affiliation was allayed by a difficult childhood housing experience. The BCA Councillors followed his lead, with incumbency and party popularity supporting their re-election. With Corrigan out of 105 office, his replacement introduced a major policy shift and received unanimous support. Given the seven-year process of Metrotown rental demolitions leading up to the 2018 election, the abrupt switch by BCA Councillors to support the progressive housing policies of Hurley seems unusual even for the impermanent commitments of Canadian municipal politics. The MDP threatened to continue and extend the gentrification and displacement already documented in Metrotown, and a naïve reader of the MDP might not know that Metrotown contained Burnaby’s most dense concentration of renters. While Council approved land use policies that negatively affected Metrotown renters, Corrigan expressed support for policies that benefitted homeowners: restricting densification in SFD areas while reducing property tax rates. Serving the interests of homeowners was an election consideration, but as Canadian cities continue to grow, rejecting responsibility for affordable housing may not be a winning strategy. 106 Chapter 5: Conclusion In this thesis, I have contributed to our knowledge of the potential for loss of PBR housing in Metro Vancouver’s suburbs, and added to a much-needed national discussion around TOD and transit-induced gentrification. Across Canada, TOD is becoming an increasingly common model for urban and suburban intensification, but too little attention is being paid to the communities adversely affected by these plans. For decades, the supply of new suburban PBR housing in Canada was effectively zero. The majority of the stock is now at least 40 years old and this type of housing plays an important role in providing NOAH options for marginalized suburban renters. In Metro Vancouver we find ourselves at something of a cross-roads for the future of this aging stock and for the future of new PBR supply. PBR housing starts are approaching levels not seen since the 1980s, which is good, but in Metro Vancouver we are seeing the stock of pre-2000s PBR units decline quite rapidly; by more than 4% in just 5 years. It is unclear why the decline in Metro Vancouver is far greater than that seen in the census metropolitan areas of Toronto and Montreal. One possible explanation is that many wood-frame PBR buildings are reaching their end of life, need significant re-investment, and face pressure to be redeveloped at higher densities. Another explanation may be that issues of affordability are more severe in Vancouver, and the potential to profit from PBR redevelopment is greater. Supporting the new supply of PBR has to be balanced against the importance of preserving the older stock that is relatively more affordable. 107 Although not explicitly stated, there is an implicit argument that an increase in the supply of PBR would decrease overall real market rents, but this is not an argument I seek to make. There is a lack of agreement in the literature as to whether an increase in the supply of housing leads to greater housing affordability. Gallent et al. (2017) note broad agreement that England’s housing crisis is rooted in an under-supply of housing in the right locations. However, they argue that an “unbounded” demand for real estate investment opportunities represents a significant factor in the erosion of housing affordability, because local systems of supply cannot keep pace with the scale of investment demand (Gallent et al. 2017, 2206). Unrestricted demand raises the residual value of land. Rather than focus exclusively on new supply to reduce housing prices, they argue that the demand created by deregulated investors should be restricted, or removed, to allow prices to be set by a smaller demand subset. Murphy (2018) places a greater focus on the role of land values in escalating UK housing prices. In 1995, the cost of land accounted for approximately half the purchase price of a new home. By 2016, the cost of land accounted for 70% of the price paid for a new home. Under the current system, landowners are incentivized to hold onto their land until they receive an offer that maximizes profits. Ley (2017) reaches a similar conclusion regarding the cause of housing price escalation in Vancouver, arguing that the city’s real estate market has become international. Despite stagnant and declining local real family incomes, average house prices almost doubled in real terms from 1977 to 2006. Local conditions that typically drive housing costs have decoupled from the cost of purchasing a house in the city. The pressure facing the aging stock of Metro Vancouver’s PBR housing comes at a time when Canada’s large urban regions are seeing a suburbanization of poverty, with people of colour, 108 recent immigrants and refugees overrepresented in this process. Aging suburban PBR is the residual housing option, but demand far exceeds supply. It is into this context that suburban TOD plans enter, bringing with them concern for gentrification and displacement when rapid transit stations are located in low-income areas, primarily occupied by renters. This thesis has explored two similar cases in which TOD planning led to the displacement of marginalized renters from suburban Vancouver neighbourhoods. The sustainable development and anti-sprawl benefits of TOD provide discursive cover for land use decisions that would be hard to justify under other circumstances. I argue that the environmental and economic benefits of TODs should not come at the cost of displacing hundreds of vulnerable renters. This is not to suggest that politicians and planners should work to keep disinvested suburban areas from seeing any change, but the choice of where to locate transit stations is political. Decision makers in all levels of government must recognize the potential threat of TODs, and do their best in advance to mitigate harmful effects for renters. Chapter 4 shows that politics matters when it comes to TODs, and City leadership can decide to provide additional protections for renters facing displacement. Although not the traditional responsibility of local governments, affordable housing policy is increasingly seen as a relevant area of concern for leaders in Canada’s larger cities. With TODs expected to continue to be important for suburban development, local leaders should be cognizant of how their community will be affected by the densification called for by TODs, consider policies that will protect renters, and communicate to the real estate industry the additional costs that they can expect to carry when they plan on redeveloping suburban PBR buildings for TOD. 109 In Chapter 2, I discussed how until recently, the supply of new PBR has been almost zero due to a poor rate of return, competition from condo development, and political interventions. Renewal or redevelopment of aging PBR buildings may be needed, and investments may require higher rents. When a landlord’s profit from sale for redevelopment far outstrips what can be generated through rents, it is challenging to justify a building’s retention. Overbearing, albeit well meaning, regulations might also prematurely push a landlord into selling. Land-use re-designations and up-zoning can create redevelopment pressure on good-condition PBR buildings that could continue to be viable for decades. Because the majority of the stock is aging, local governments are in a position where policies must balance the expansion and renewal of PBR units, against the preservation of NOAH to avoid large-scale tenant displacement. The status quo could possibly lead to an undesirable outcome where PBR buildings are redeveloped for condos without a rezoning, leading to a net loss of PBR housing. When a PBR development is being considered for a rezoning, it should be kept in mind that condo projects are financially viable at lower densities, but condominiums do not add to the stock of secured rental housing, and certainly not to the stock of affordable units. In Chapter 3 I discussed the stated goals of TOD to equitably enhance accessibility to transit, with added environmental objectives to reduce automobile traffic and encourage walking in higher density districts. I argued that increased accessibility can lead to locational premiums upon which certain actors seek to capitalize (Dawkins & Moeckel, 2016). TODs have the potential to generate increased property tax and development revenue and are likely to be supported by local governments, but there can emerge an affordability paradox wherein those who most need access to rapid transit are displaced by high housing costs in TODs (Rayle, 2015; 110 Renne, Tolford, Hamidi, & Ewing, 2016). It can be a challenge to integrate social equity goals with the economic and anti-sprawl goals of TOD and other forms of sustainable development (Mueller et al., 2018). The tensions that exist within TOD’s sustainability aims are highlighted when TODs bring redevelopment pressure to bear upon affordable rental housing occupied by refugees and other vulnerable groups (Oden, 2016). There is a tendency to locate rapid transit stations in areas of less resistance, but there is growing awareness of the importance of preserving affordable housing within TOD districts (Mueller et al., 2018). The demolition of the Whitgift apartments described in Chapter 3, and the pending displacement of Syrian refugees is an evocative example of processes taking place in suburban Burquitlam and other PBR clusters in Metro Vancouver’s suburban centers, and stands as an example of concerns that “TOD interventions could result in gentrification and the eventual displacement of low-income groups” (Padeiro et al., 2019, p. 735). This case study is consistent with the burgeoning literature on TOD-induced gentrification, which finds that these changes largely displaced the most vulnerable, including low-income people of colour (Cappellano & Spisto, 2014; Enright, 2013; Jones & Ley, 2016; Rayle, 2015). I argue that the discourse around the benefits of TOD obfuscate serious inequities, and provides cover for policies that would be indefensible under other circumstances, reminiscent of Shaw’s (2011) argument that mixed-income developments can be a Trojan horse for gentrification. This is not to advocate against any change in these neighbourhoods, rather I wish to draw attention to the political nature of the locational decisions for rapid transit stations, and the path dependency of change that follows from these decisions. TODs change neighbourhoods, and these changes must be anticipated and mitigated when they will disproportionately affect marginalized communities. 111 According to the 2016 and 2021 Canadian census, the Vancouver census metropolitan area census tract in which Whitgift was located saw a decline of 280 refugee residents, from 860 in 2016 to 580 in 2021. The number of Syrians went from 175 to 70, and the number of immigrants in the census tract who landed in Canada from 2011-2015 declined by 520, from 1,045 in 2016 to 525 in 2021. Although it is not possible to determine the exact reason for all of the net changes in this neighbourhood, quantitative data supports the qualitative findings of displacement in this thesis. Increasing residential density around transit stations is reasonable in order to make the most of considerable infrastructure investments for TODs. However, we now know enough to anticipate the challenges that will be faced by marginalized renters in these areas, and to implement comprehensive anti-displacement and affordable housing policies in advance of these inevitable changes. Heightened fiscal constraints have caused the local state to juggle spending priorities as it is forced to accept responsibilities downloaded from higher levels of government and assume risk in economic development projects. Local governments have adapted to this difficult situation by shifting from managerial to entrepreneurial regimes as they engage in forms of inter- and intra-urban regional competition to cope with and reproduce heightened levels of economic uncertainty (Harvey 1989; Peck et al. 2009). As cities have become both the site and object of capital accumulation, the difficulty of creating, preserving, and improving affordable housing has grown. Urban land and housing have become central nodes in global capital flows, creating uphill struggles for claiming and preserving space in the city for low-income residents (Fields 2015). The local state has become dependent upon its property base to generate revenue, and the built environment is demolished and redeveloped through new rounds of financing, construction, 112 demolition, and redevelopment (Weber 2002). Often the private sector alone cannot supply the conditions needed for the capture of value, so the local state must intervene to influence value in the built environment. Demolition occurs as a ‘spatial fix’ that initiates a process of creative destruction when the rent gap between the exchange value of a building and the land upon which it sits is sufficiently large (Harvey 1989; Smith 1996; Weber et al. 2006). Demolition is facilitated by the local state through a variety of measures such as strategic public investment, streamlined permitting processes, and up-zoning (Smith 1996; Betancur 2002). I argue that one purpose of the MDP was to enable the continuation of up-zoning initiated in 2011. Consistent with Smith’s (1996) argument that the local state intervenes in the land base to enable to the capture of value, the potential for rezoned density under MDP land use designations made it feasible for developers to outbid the existing holding of PBR. In the rezoning process, Burnaby’s density program allows the City to capture some of the value generated through up-zoning. Developers could create on-site amenities, but they often opt to provide cash-in-lieu (City of Burnaby 2020). Creative destruction in the city occurs in a “cluttered and contested” institutional and physical landscape in which emergent spaces come into conflict with what exists (Peck et al. 2009: 57). The major shifts in Burnaby’s policy and political landscape examined in Chapter 4 lend credence to arguments that mayors can exert a greater degree of influence than might be assumed for Canada’s mayoral system. Burnaby’s displacement-demolition-redevelopment policy was supported by Mayor Corrigan for a number of years and his personal attitudes influenced his demarcation of Metrotown renters’ rights (Cabria et al., 2018). Corrigan allayed the contradiction of adopting a pro-growth, gentrifying position, against a life-long social-113 democratic NDP affiliation, by naturalising his own difficult childhood housing experience when as renters his family was constantly relocated. The MDP in Burnaby threatened to continue and extend the gentrification and displacement already documented in the neighbourhood, and a naïve reader of the plan might not know that Metrotown contained Burnaby’s most dense concentration of renters. Serving the interests of homeowners was an election consideration for Corrigan, but as Canadian cities continue to grow, rejecting responsibility for affordable housing may not be a winning strategy. Although not traditionally seen as the responsibility of local governments, as cities grow larger, local leaders increasingly see affordable housing as a municipal responsibility. This role for local governments has been reflected in reports produced by the Federation of Canadian Municipalities, and affordable housing was a major election issue for Burnaby voters in 2018. With Corrigan out of office, his replacement introduced a major policy shift and received unanimous support from City Council, including from seven of Corrigan’s incumbent Councillors. This was a remarkable revision in City policy, considering that the 2018 election resulted in a change to only one Council seat, and a new mayor. Corrigan won a resounding 68% of votes in 2014 (Civic Info BC, 2021). I argue that there are three key features which contributed to his remarkable election loss in 2018. First, years of sustained activism made affordable housing and Metrotown demovictions a city-wide election issue. At his acceptance speech, one of Mayor Hurley’s earliest pronouncements was that there would be a moratorium on demovictions in Metrotown (Burnaby Now, 2018a), hinting at the importance of this issue to the election, and to his campaign. The second factor was that Hurley was a strong opponent for Corrigan, having deep ties to the community as a recently retired city firefighter. And third, the combination of the demoviction issue and Hurley’s ties to the 114 community appear to have led labour organizations to endorse Hurley over Corrigan. Hurley was endorsed by the New Westminster and District Labour Council, and the Burnaby Teachers’ Association, with the strongest suggestion of this factor coming from the director of United Steelworkers, who said, “Working families are finding it harder and harder to make ends meet as they watch affordable housing options literally come down with a wrecking ball” (Vancouver Sun, 2018, np). The reference to a wrecking ball speaks to Metrotown demovictions. One could speculate that incumbent City Councillors would have been ill-advised to oppose a motion from a new mayor with a popular mandate to change the city’s approach to PBR housing in Metrotown. Both qualitative and quantitative analysis have shown that Vancouver’s stock of suburban PBR is at risk of loss, especially when compared to the census metropolitan areas of Toronto and Montreal. TOD planning is one of the factors driving this loss, leading to gentrification and the displacement of vulnerable renters. Some municipal leaders have concluded that these processes are inevitable, or natural, but this is an approach in urgent need of critique. Mayors can exert a greater influence on policy outcomes than may traditionally be thought and urban geographers should seek to understand the personal attitudes and motivations of City leadership. As TOD becomes an increasingly popular policy strategy in urban planning, we need to ensure that the considerable potential benefits do not come at a cost to the most vulnerable. The objective of this thesis is supported by the finding in Chapter 2 that the decline of Vancouver’s suburban stock of older PBR housing units (built before 2000), nominally and proportionately dwarfed that of the census metropolitan areas of Toronto and Montreal from 2017-2021. More research is needed to understand, anticipate, and mitigate the effects of transit-115 induced gentrification in North American suburbs. Future work should aim to develop policies that can help local governments accept the reality of neighbourhood change around transit stations in TODs, with a purpose to ward off the worst outcomes that may result in the displacement of marginalized renters. I argue that the forthcoming implementation of the City of Vancouver’s TOD Broadway Plan (City of Vancouver, 2022) is of international significance for research that seeks to achieve these goals. A limitation of this thesis is that it was not possible to track outcomes for suburban renters who were displaced. Future research on displacement from TODs should seek to track the experience of renters evicted from demolished buildings, although tracing displacees from gentrification has always been methodologically difficult. Finally, we need a discursive shift around TODs to ensure that social equity concerns are not eclipsed by sustainable development imperatives. In Canada, this will require engaging with all levels of government. The federal government should consider its role in international migration and settlement, providing additional supports for government-assisted refugees settled in expensive and volatile housing systems. Provincial governments have jurisdiction over landlord-tenant relations and it should be acknowledged that evictions for TOD redevelopments require a different policy response than other forms of eviction. These evictions are at the scale of entire buildings, and the tenant is subject to an eviction through no fault of their own. Local governments have leverage when granting high-density rezoning and development permits. Clear communication regarding what Councils will, and will not, support is essential, and expectations for how renter displacement will be managed should feature prominently in TOD plans. Future research should also consider the influence that specific actors within local government 116 leadership can have on how TOD plans are implemented. 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Expanding the regional rapid transit network and providing more transportation options while putting more housing and jobs close to transit has become a central strategy in regional planning to make Metro Vancouver more livable and affordable (TransLink, 2013). Metro Vancouver’s Regional Growth Strategy identifies a series of urban centers and frequent transit development areas where development should be concentrated to advance livability and sustainability (Metro Vancouver, 2020). The regional policy context of accommodating population growth though concentrated density in locations served by public transit supports local transit-oriented development (TOD) redevelopment plans near transit stations. Metro Vancouver’s first rapid transit line was opened in 1985 in advance of the Expo ’86 World’s Fair in Vancouver. Coquitlam expected to receive an extension of the line by 1990, but 151 this was delayed in favor of a line to the City of Surrey, one of Canada’s fastest growing municipalities. In 2002, the Millennium Line extension through Burnaby opened and planning for a line to Coquitlam, now intended to be phase II of this project, was halted because of rising project costs. In 2006 the Board of Directors of the regional transportation authority, TransLink, approved a project definition phase, and detailed design work for the Evergreen extension began in earnest. There was a dispute as to whether the Evergreen extension would use a light rapid transit mode, similar to streetcars at grade, or advanced light rapid transit (ALRT) similar to other raised lines in the region’s rapid transit network. ALRT was chosen because it would carry 2.5 times the ridership, enable faster travel time with greater frequency, and seamlessly connect with the existing SkyTrain network (BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure, 2009). The specific route of the Evergreen extension was decided by the BC Ministry of Transportation and Infrastructure in April 2008 after a Route Selection Consultation with mayors and council in the Northeast Sector of Metro Vancouver (Kirk & Co. Consulting Limited and Synovate Ltd., 2009). In the business case sent to mayors and council, two options for the route of the Evergreen Extension were provided. The current alignment was endorsed by the three key municipalities through which the line would run (Corrigan, 2008). The Evergreen extension was deemed necessary for three overarching reasons: (a) to increase transportation choice and support a reduction in automobile use; (b) to support the creation of a compact region by stimulating concentrated, mixed-use development, and create identifiable and vibrant communities by stimulating concentrated, mixed-use developments and pleasant pedestrian realms to act as accessible community focal points; and 3) to reap the economic benefits of supporting a good business environment through design (TransLink, 2006). To 152 achieve these goals, TransLink provided guidelines to Metro Vancouver municipalities to create successful TOD communities. The exact language of Trans Link’s Six Ds—destinations, distance, design, density, diversity and demand—was used in the Burquitlam Lougheed Plan’s definition of TOD to achieve “high-density, mixed-use developments with abundant ground-level retail, employment uses and a high-quality pedestrian-focused public realm and well-connected street and sidewalk networks” (Coquitlam 2017, p. 6).
Thesis/Dissertation
eng
Geography
Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
Graduate
Ley, David
Wyly, Elvin K.
Essays on purpose-built rental housing, gentrification, and transit-oriented development in suburban Metro Vancouver
Text