Parameter-space dependence in a stochastic dual dynamic programming model of a multireservoir hydropower system
department or school: Applied Science, Faculty of
department or school: Civil Engineering, Department of
data provider: DSpace
degree campus: UBCV
creator: Mitchell, Kyle Terrence
issued: 2023-01-16T22:44:02Z
issued: 2023
related degree: Master of Applied Science - MASc
degree grantor: University of British Columbia
description: Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming is a heuristic stochastic optimization algorithm used to analyze multistage decision making problems with stochastic variables through Benders decomposition and solvable linear approximations. Benders cuts are utilized to develop a piecewise linear approximation of a 'benefit-to-go' or future value function at each stage. This thesis assesses BC Hydro's Columbia and Peace River hydroelectric network representation in a multistage stochastic optimization problem with a finite planning horizon. The model attempts to maximize the 'water value' across the MCA, GMS, and ARD facilities over a duration of five years. Existing model parameter-space is heavily restricted due to the use of static market prices and load demands. Changes have been proposed to expand on the current parameter-space pertaining to inflow dependent market electricity prices through the implementation of seasonally forecasted price and load blocks. Preliminary results indicate the existing model implementation does not provide sufficient parameter-space coverage with respect to market prices, resulting in possible over-estimations of water value as the model approaches convergence.
aggregated CHO: https://circle.library.ubc.ca/rest/handle/2429/83645
note: PARAMETER-SPACE DEPENDENCE IN A STOCHASTIC DUAL DYNAMICPROGRAMMINGMODEL OF A MULTIRESERVOIR HYDROPOWER SYSTEMbyKyle Terrence MitchellA THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FORTHE DEGREE OFMASTER OF APPLIED SCIENCEinTHE FACULTY OF GRADUATE AND POSTDOCTORAL STUDIES(Civil Engineering)THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA(Vancouver)January 2023© Kyle Terrence Mitchell, 2023iiThe following individuals certify that they have read, and recommend to the Faculty of Graduateand Postdoctoral Studies for acceptance, the thesis entitled:Parameter-Space Dependence in a Stochastic Dual Dynamic Programming Model of a Multireser-voir Hydropower Systemsubmitted by Kyle Mitchell in partial fulfilment of the requirements forthe degree of Master of Applied Sciencein Civil EngineeringExamining Committee:Ziad Shawwash, Assistant Professor, Civil Engineering, UBCSupervisorGregory Lawrence, Professor, Civil Engineering, UBCSupervisory Committee MemberiiiAbstractStochastic Dual Dynamic Programming is a heuristic stochastic optimization algorithm used toanalyze multistage decision making problems with stochastic variables through Benders decom-position and solvable linear approximations. Benders cuts are utilized to develop a piecewiselinear approximation of a ’benefit-to-go’ or future value function at each stage. This thesis as-sesses BCHydro’s Columbia and Peace River hydroelectric network representation in a multistagestochastic optimization problem with a finite planning horizon. The model attempts to maximizethe ’water value’ across the MCA, GMS, and ARD facilities over a duration of five years. Exist-ing model parameter-space is heavily restricted due to the use of static market prices and loaddemands. Changes have been proposed to expand on the current parameter-space pertaining toinflow dependent market electricity prices through the implementation of seasonally forecastedprice and load blocks. Preliminary results indicate the existing model implementation does no…
has type: Thesis/Dissertation
date issued: 2023-05
is shown at: 10.14288/1.0423050
language: eng
degree discipline: Civil Engineering
provider: Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library
publisher: University of British Columbia
rights: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
rights URI: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
scholar level: Graduate
contributor: Shawwash, Ziad K. Elias
type: Text
identifier URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2429/83645