Development of a quantitative risk analysis approach to evaluate the economic performance of an industrial-scale biorefinery
department or school: Applied Science, Faculty of
department or school: Chemical and Biological Engineering, Department of
data provider: DSpace
degree campus: UBCV
creator: Wang, Yu
issued: 2018-08-29T15:51:06Z
issued: 2018
related degree: Doctor of Philosophy - PhD
degree grantor: University of British Columbia
description: The overall objective of this dissertation was to evaluate the economic performance of a commercial-scale biorefinery given the volatility in the market price of the final product and the variability in the biomass delivered cost. To this end, a risk analysis methodology comprised of five steps was developed: 1) construct the supply area geographical data base, 2) perform Monte Carlo simulation via the Integrated Biomass Supply Analysis and Logistics Multi-Crop model (IBSAL-MC) to produce the biomass delivered cost distribution, 3) conduct economic analysis by combining the biomass delivered cost distribution with the product market price to generate a ROI (return on investment) heat map, 4) repeat Steps 1 to 3 for an alternative scenario and 5) compare heat maps from different scenarios to quantify the effectiveness and incentive available for achieving an alternative scenario. The proposed methodology was applied to a cellulosic sugar plant under construction in Southwestern Ontario, Canada. Three bioreﬁnery scenarios were considered including small-scale (175 dry tonnes (dt)/day), medium-scale (520 dt/day) and large-scale (860 dt/day). Results showed that the magnitude of the required logistical resources and their associated upfront and administrative costs hindered the biorefinery’s economic performance as its scale increased. The risk analysis approach was then applied to the small-scale scenario. Potential economic incentives for participating biomass producers were quantified as the participation rate increased from 20% to 30%, 40% and 50. While increasing farm participation rate was economically beneficial to the biorefinery, there were more economic benefits if the sugar market price was in a favourable range. When a farmers’ co-operative was introduced to the supply system, if the biorefinery could secure a long-term consumer of the produced sugar in the price range of $425-575/tonne, the farmers’ co-operative and other investors of the biomass project we…
aggregated CHO: https://circle.library.ubc.ca/rest/handle/2429/66985
note: DEVELOPMENT OF A QUANTITATIVE RISK ANALYSIS APPROACH TO EVALUATE THE ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE OF AN INDUSTRIAL-SCALE BIOREFINERY by Max (Yu Max) Wang B.A.Sc., The University of British Columbia, 2007 M.A.Sc., The University of British Columbia, 2010 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE AND POSTDOCTORAL STUDIES (Chemical and Biological Engineering) THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA (VANCOUVER) August, 2018 © Max (Yu Max) Wang, 2018 ii Committee submitted by Yu Wang in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Chemical Engineering Examining Committee: Anthony Lau, Chemical and Biological Engineering Co-supervisor Shahab Sokhansanj, Chemical and Biological Engineering Co-supervisor Fariborz Taghipour, Chemical and Biological Engineering University Examiner Gary Bull, Forestry University Examiner Additional Supervisory Committee Members: Jim Lim, Chemical and Biological Engineering Supervisory Committee Member Hisham Zerriffi, Forestry Supervisory Committee Member iii Abstract The overall objective of this dissertation was to evaluate the economic performance of a commercial-scale biorefinery given the volatility in the market price of the final product and the variability in the biomass delivered cost. To this end, a risk analysis methodology comprised of five steps was developed: 1) construct the supply area geographical data base, 2) perform Monte Carlo simulation via the Integrated Biomass Supply Analysis and Logistics Multi-Crop model (IBSAL-MC) to produce the biomass delivered cost distribution, 3) conduct economic analysis by combining the biomass delivered cost distribution with the product market price to generate a ROI (return on investment) heat map, 4) repeat Steps 1 to 3 for an alternative scenario and 5) compare heat maps from different scenarios to quantify the effectiveness and incentive available for achieving an alternative sc…
has type: Thesis/Dissertation
date issued: 2018-09
is shown at: 10.14288/1.0371603
language: eng
degree discipline: Chemical and Biological Engineering
provider: Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library
publisher: University of British Columbia
rights: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
rights URI: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
scholar level: Graduate
type: Text
identifier URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2429/66985