On the dynamics of HIV and malaria infection : insights from mathematical models
department or school: Science, Faculty of
department or school: Mathematics, Department of
data provider: DSpace
degree campus: UBCV
creator: Konrad, Bernhard Paul
issued: 2015-10-24T02:45:14
issued: 2015
related degree: Doctor of Philosophy - PhD
degree grantor: University of British Columbia
description: We develop and apply mathematical models to obtain insights into the dynamics of HIV and malaria infection. We consider three case studies. 1. The duration of the time between exposure and detectability of HIV infection is difficult to estimate because precise dates of exposure are rarely known. Therefore, the reliability of clinical HIV testing during the first few weeks of infections is unknown, creating anxiety among HIV-exposed individuals and their physicians. We address this knowledge gap by fitting stochastic models of early HIV infection to detailed viral load time-courses, taken shortly after exposure, from 78 plasma donors. Since every plasma donor in our data eventually becomes infected, we condition our model to reflect this bias before fitting to the data. Our model prediction for the mean eclipse period is 8-10 days. We further quantify the reliability of a negative test t days after potential exposure to inform physicians about the value of initial and follow-up testing. 2. The recently launched Get Checked Online (GCO) program aims at increasing the HIV testing rate in the Vancouver men who have sex with men population by facilitating test taking and result delivery. We develop mathematical models and extract parameter values from surveys and interviews to quantify GCO's population-level impact. Our models predict that the epidemic is growing overall, that its severeness is increased by the presence of a high-risk group and that, even at modest effectiveness, GCO might avert 34-66 new infections in the next five years. 3. Metarhizium anisopliae is a naturally occurring fungal pathogen of mosquitoes that has been engineered to act against malaria by effectively blocking onward transmission from the mosquito vector. We develop and analyse two mathematical models to examine the efficacy of this fungal pathogen. We find that, in many plausible scenarios, the best effects are achieved with a reduced or minimal pathogen virulence, even if the likelihood of…
aggregated CHO: https://circle.library.ubc.ca/rest/handle/2429/54829
note: On the Dynamics of HIV and Malaria Infection - InsightsFrom Mathematical ModelsbyBernhard Paul KonradDipl.-Math. Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, 2010A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENTOF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OFDoctor of PhilosophyinTHE FACULTY OF GRADUATE AND POSTDOCTORALSTUDIES(Mathematics)The University of British Columbia(Vancouver)September 2015c© Bernhard Paul Konrad, 2015AbstractWe develop and apply mathematical models to obtain insights into the dynamicsof human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) and malaria infection. We consider threecase studies.1. The duration of the time between exposure and detectability of HIV infectionis difficult to estimate because precise dates of exposure are rarely known. There-fore, the reliability of clinical HIV testing during the first few weeks of infectionsis unknown, creating anxiety among HIV-exposed individuals and their physicians.We address this knowledge gap by fitting stochastic models of early HIV infectionto detailed viral load time-courses, taken shortly after exposure, from 78 plasmadonors. Since every plasma donor in our data eventually becomes infected, wecondition our model to reflect this bias before fitting to the data. Our model predic-tion for the mean eclipse period is 8-10 days. We further quantify the reliability ofa negative test t days after potential exposure to inform physicians about the valueof initial and follow-up testing.2. The recently launched Get Checked Online (GCO) program aims at increas-ing the HIV testing rate in the Vancouver men who have sex with men popula-tion by facilitating test taking and result delivery. We develop mathematical mod-els and extract parameter values from surveys and interviews to quantify GCO’spopulation-level impact. Our models predict that the epidemic is growing overall,that its severeness is increased by the presence of a high-risk group and that, even atmodest effectiveness, GCO might avert 34-66 new infections in the next five years.3. Metarhiz…
has type: Thesis/Dissertation
date issued: 2015-11
is shown at: 10.14288/1.0166729
language: eng
degree discipline: Mathematics
provider: Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library
publisher: University of British Columbia
rights: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.5 Canada
rights URI: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/2.5/ca/
scholar level: Graduate
type: Text
identifier URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2429/54829