"Arts, Faculty of"@en . "Political Science, Department of"@en . "DSpace"@en . "UBCV"@en . "Bernstein, Irving"@en . "2011-03-24T19:12:01Z"@en . "1973"@en . "Master of Arts - MA"@en . "University of British Columbia"@en . "In recent years political scientists have shown increasing interest in the relationship between international and intranational politics. One of the problems most frequently dealt with in this area is the relationship between foreign and domestic conflict behaviour. Some of the notions involved are quite venerable and are commonly used in explaining specific events. One such notion is scapegoating, the diversion of popular attention from domestic conflicts to foreign ones. Another such concept posits the strengthening of internal solidarity in the face of external conflict. However, attempts at scientific, systematic examinations of the issue have yielded evidence of only weak relationships at best.\r\nIn this paper the problem is again approached, though from a different angle than in most other studies. The types of behaviour examined are interstate violence and intrastate political unrest. Measures for each of these variables are developed. Correlations between the measures are then computed for each of four Middle Eastern states: Egypt, Israel, Jordan and Syria. The calculations are made both with and without time lags.\r\nThe results show no significant relationship between the variables for Israel. For Syria unrest predicts positively and with moderate strength to subsequent interstate violence, while interstate violence predicts moderately and negatively to subsequent unrest. For Egypt and Jordan the variables predict strongly and positively to each other. It is suggested that these differences among the states may be due to differing degrees of freedom of access to political channels in them."@en . "https://circle.library.ubc.ca/rest/handle/2429/32901?expand=metadata"@en . "DOMESTIC UNREST AND INTERSTATE VIOLENCE: FOUR MIDDLE EASTERN STATES by \" IRVING BERNSTEIN B.A., McGill University, 1966 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF ARTS i n the Department \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 of P o l i t i c a l Science We accept this, thesis as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA October, 1973 In presenting t h i s thesis i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t of the requirements for an advanced degree at the University of B r i t i s h Columbia, I agree that the Library s h a l l make i t f r e e l y available for reference and study. I further agree that permission fo r extensive copying of t h i s thesis for scholarly purposes may be granted by the Head of my Department or by h i s representatives. It i s understood that copying or publication of t h i s thesis for f i n a n c i a l gain s h a l l not be allowed without my written permission. Department of P o l i t i c a l Science The University of B r i t i s h Columbia Vancouver 8, Canada i ABSTRACT In recent years p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s have shown increasing interest i n the relationship between international and intranational p o l i t i c s . One of the problems most frequently dealt with i n t h i s area i s the relationship between foreign and domestic c o n f l i c t behaviour. Some of the notions involved are quite venerable and are commonly used i n explaining s p e c i f i c events o One suchi notion: i s scapegoating, the ddver*-sion of. popular attention, from domestic c o n f l i c t s to foreign: ones. Another sucha concept posits the strengthening of i n t e r n a l s o l i d a r i t y i n the face of external c o n f l i c t o However, attempts at s c i e n t i f i c , systema-t i c examinations of the issue have yielded evidence of only weak relationships at hesto Im t h i s paper the problem i s again approached, though from a di f f e r e n t angle than: ini most other studies. The types of behaviour examined are interstate violence and intrastate p o l i t i c a l unresto Measures f o r each of these variables are developedo Correlations between the measures are then computed f o r each of four Middle Eastern states: Egypt, I s r a e l , Jordan and Syria\u00E2\u0080\u009E The calculations are made both with and without time lagSo The resu l t s show no s i g n i f i c a n t relationship between the v a r i a -bles f o r Israelo For Syria unrest predicts p o s i t i v e l y and with moderate strength to subsequent interstate violence, while interstate violence predicts moderately and negatively to subsequent unresto For Egypt and Jordan the variables predict strongly and p o s i t i v e l y to each other. I t i s suggested that these differences among the states may be due to d i f -f e r i n g degrees of freedom of access to p o l i t i c a l channels im thenu i i CONTENTS CHAPTER PAGE I. Introduction 1 I I . The Hypothesis 7. I I I . Review of the General Literature 12 IV. Review of the Literature on the Four States 22 V. Operationalization 28 VI. Findings and Interpretation 41 VII. Conclusions 77 Notes 84 Bibliography 95 Apriendices 102 i i i LIST OF TABLES TABLE PAGE I. Domestic Unrest and Interstate Violence of Is r a e l : Correlations Based on a Six-Month Temporal Unit . . . . . 42 I I . Domestic Unrest and Interstate Violence of I s r a e l : Correlations Based on a One-Year Temporal Unit . . . . . 42 I I I . Domestic Unrest and Interstate Violence of Syria: Correlations Based on a Six-Month Temporal Unit . . . . . 45 IV. Domestic Unrest and Interstate Violence of Syria: .Correlations Based on a One-Year Temporal Unit . . . . . 45 V. Domestic Unrest and Interstate Violence of the SAR: Correlations Based on a Six-Month Temporal Unit 46 VI. Domestic Unrest and Interstate Violence of the SAR: Correlations Based on a One-Year Temporal Unit . . . . . 46 VII. Domestic Unrest and Interstate Violence of Jordan: Correlations Based on a Six-Month Temporal Unit . . . . . 53 VIII. Domestic Unrest and Interstate Violence of Jordan: Correlations Based on a One-Year Temporal Unit . . . . . 53 IX. Domestic Unrest and Interstate Violence of Egypt: Correlations Based on a Six-rMonth Temporal Unit 59 X. Domestic Unrest and Interstate Violence of Egypt: Correlations Based on a One-Year Temporal Unit \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 . 59 XI. Domestic Unrest and Interstate Violence of the UAR: Correlations Based on a Six-Month Temporal Unit . \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 . . 60 XII. Domestic Unrest and Interstate Violence of the UAR: Correlations Based on a One-Year Temporal Unit. \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 . \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 . 60 XIII. I s r a e l i Unrest i n Different Periods: Correlations Based on a Six-Month Temporal Unit . . . . . 68 XIV. I s r a e l i Unrest i n Different Periods: Correlations Based on a One-Year Temporal Unit . \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 . 68 XV. Syrian Unrest i n Different Periods: Correlations Based on a Six-Month Temporal Unit \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 . \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 . . 68 XVI. Syrian Unrest i n Different Periods: Correlations Based on a One-Year Temporal Unit . . . \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 . 68 TABLE PAGE XVIIo SAR Unrest i n Different Periods: Correlations Based on a Six-Month Temporal Unit \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 68 XVIII. SAR Unrest i n Different Periods: Correlations Based on a One-Year Temporal Unit \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 68 XIXo Jordan's Unrest i n Different Periods: Correlations Based on a Six-Month Temporal Unit . . . . 69 XX. Jordan's Unrest i n Different Periods: Correlations Based on a One-Year Temporal Unit \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 69 XXI. ' Egypt's Unrest i n Different Periods: Correlations Based on a Six-Month Temporal Unit \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 69 XXII. Egypt's Unrest i n Different Periods: Correlations Based on a One-Year Temporal Unit . . . . 69 XXIII. UAR Unrest i n Different Periods: Correlations Based on a Six-Month Temporal Unit \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 . . \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 69 XXIV. UAR Unrest i n Different Periods: Correlations Based on a One-Year Temporal Unit \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 69 XXV. I s r a e l i .Interstate Violence i n Different Periods: Correlations Based on a Six-Month Temporal Unit . . . . 74 XXVI. I s r a e l i Interstate Violence i n Different Periods: Correlations Based on a One-Year Temporal Unit \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 74 XXVII. Syrian Interstate Violence i n Different Periods: Correlations Based on a Six-Month Temporal Unit . . . . 74 XXVIII. Syrian Interstate Violence i n Different Periods: Correlations Based on a One-Year Temporal Unit \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 74 XXLX. SAR Interstate Violence i n Different Periods: Correlations Based on a Six-Month Temporal Unit . . . . 74 XXX. SAR Interstate Violence i n Different Periods: Correlations Based on a One-Year Temporal Unit \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 74 XXXI. Jordan's Interstate Violence i n Different Periods: Correlations Based on a Six-Month Temporal Unit 0 . . . 75 XXXII. Jordan's Interstate Violence i n Different Periods: Correlations Based on a One-Year Temporal Unit . . . . 75. XXXIII. Egypt's Interstate Violence i n Different Periods: Correlations Based on a Six-Month Temporal Unit . . . . 75-TABLE PAGE XXXIV. Egypt's Interstate Violence i n Different Periods: Correlations Based on a One-Year Temporal Unit . \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 . . 75 XXXV. UAR Interstate Violence i n Different Periods: Correlations Based on a Six-Month Temporal Unit . . . . 75 XXXVI. UAR Interstate Violence i n Different Periods: Correlations Based on a One-Year Temporal Unit \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 . . \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 75 Chapter I Introduction The \"shrinking world\" has become one of the most hackneyed of metaphorso The phrase i t s e l f seems to be of f a i r l y recent coinage 0 The basic idea involved \u00E2\u0080\u0094 that the states and peoples of the earth are becoming increasingly s a l i e n t to each other i n a l l aspects of l i f e \u00E2\u0080\u0094 can be traced quite f a r back i n time* The notion was, f o r example, i n t e l l e c -t u a l l y respectable i n the years before the F i r s t V/orld War\u00E2\u0080\u009E Thus, Maclver wrote, i n 1912, that despite the existence of national states society i s one, and l i n k s the nearest to the most remote and makes the most remote indispensable to the nearest 0 \/ This interdependence of the peoples of the \" c i v i l i z e d \" states i s seen as 2 a r e s u l t of commerce, technology and the non-totalitarian nature of such p o l i t i c a l systemso Similar analyses can be found i n writings by e a r l i e r authors as well.\"^ Rosenau notes that interdependence i s the broadest and loosest of a group of concepts related to \"across-systems\" analysis.^ The others \u00E2\u0080\u0094 penetration, linkage, intervention, emulation, integration and R adaptation^\u00E2\u0080\u0094 are more precise and more recently developed f o c i of interest than the f i r s t one. Given the venerability of the theme of interdependence, one might expect more systematic analysis of t h i s and the related concepts than has occurred.^ Given the structure of Anglo-American p o l i t i c a l science, however, the lacuna becomes more comprehen-s i b l e . Rosenau points to the separation of comparative p o l i t i c s studies from international relations studies as a major source of this neglect. 7 Frankel notes that On the basis of r e l a t i v e security and i s o l a t i o n from foreign a f f a i r s , i t has become customary f o r B r i t i s h and American thinkers and statesmen to believe that the two domains are separatee... 8/ Actually, the rupture between the f i e l d s has not been as sharp or as clean as these statements would suggest. The interrelationship has often been acknowledged by p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s and conceptual allow-9 ance has been made f o r i t 0 Seldom, however, have researchers gone beyond these points to develop systematic analyses of the relationship,, Thus, while Easton includes the Extrasocietal Environment i n his frame-work,\"*\"^ he provides l i t t l e more than categories and subcategories (for the external environment). Nowhere i n Easton*s discussion are the phenomena embraced by his categories posited as interdependent. Nowhere are they conceived as self-sustaining processes which o.. lead to predictable forms of behavior. I l / In the f u l l e s t development of the structural-functional approach to comparative p o l i t i c s , Almond and Powell neglect the international 12 environment almost e n t i r e l y . As Riggs has pointed out, i t is-a t a c i t assumption of Almond's model ... that the p o l i t i c s of developing countries can be treated as r e l a t i v e l y autonomous closed p o l i t i c a l systems 0 13/ That t h i s should be the f i n a l form of the framework i s somewhat s u r p r i -sing, however,. For one year before the publication of Comparative P o l i -t i c s , an essay b r i e f l y summarizing the approach was printedo\"*^- In that paper the international system was treated i n much the same way as i t was by Easton. Reference was made to system responsiveness to demands from 15 the international system,. The development of extractive c a p a b i l i t i e s v i s - a - v i s the domestic and international systems and the relationship 16 between these c a p a b i l i t i e s were also discussed. The ideas tend to be rather broad and vagueo Yet only very l i t t l e of this conceptual allow-ance finds i t s way into the Almond and Powell text. One gets the impression that the authors, while l o g i c a l l y compelled to acknowledge the relevance of the international system, are s t i l l acting on some assumption of the independence of the two domains 0 Therefore, they do not know how f a r to take the issue of i n t e r r e l a t i o n -ship. As f a r as these analysts are concerned, the boundaries between the f i e l d s seem to be more ragged than p r e c i s e 0 A small sample of introductory comparative p o l i t i c s texts shows that such raggedness i s not uncommon. Blondel ' and Curtis attempt to provide coherent approaches to comparative p o l i t i c s and are able to ignore the international system completely. In the surveys of the f i e l d provided i n selections of readings, however, the l i n e between the f i e l d s 19 becomes s l i g h t l y b l u r r e d 0 In the Eckstein and Apter text y and i n the 20 f i r s t e d i t i o n of the Macridis and Ward reader the relevance of the international system i s conceded only f o r the int e r n a l p o l i t i c s of non-Western-liberal-democratic states. Thus, the rol e of the '\"Communist 21 camp\" i n maintaining the domestic systems of i t s members i s discussed. The discussion, however, remains on the l e v e l of a special case and the p o s s i b i l i t y of the broader a p p l i c a b i l i t y of the concepts involved i s not ra i s e d . Discussions of newly-independent states e n t a i l frequent reference 22 to t h e i r c o l o n i a l paste Again, i n no case i s any attempt made to take 23 the discussion to a more general, systematic l e v e l . I t seems that the separation of comparative p o l i t i c s from the f i e l d of international relations has been neither sharp nor consistento While some authors have disregarded the international system, others have been driven by l o g i c or history to acknowledge i t s relevance. Yet t h i s very acknowledgement has often resulted i n a number of loose ends which were not, or could not be, t i e d up s a t i s f a c t o r i l y i n the context of a given framework. A b r i e f review of international relations studies reveals a s i m i l a r state of a f f a i r s . One might expect a greater tendency to consider intrastate p o l i t i c s relevant when the focus i s the national subsystem. Indeed, there are studies at t h i s l e v e l which tend to explain almost a l l aspects of foreign policy i n terms of the exigencies 24 of domestic p o l i t i c s . On the other hand, the major analytic approach at t h i s l e v e l , foreign policy decision-making, tends to relegate the i n t r a s t a t e system to a minor position at best. While Snyder, bruck and Sapin include the i n t r a s o c i e t a l setting i n their outline, i t remains l i t t l e more than an impressionistic backdropo Their commentary makes i t c l e a r that most of the aspects of t h i s setting are to be dealt with only i n the broadest sense. 5 The authors do not attempt an examination of the extent and nature of the relevance of these variables. In the Brecher, Steinberg and Stein development of the approach the domestic system i s subjected to a closer examination. However, only those aspects of i n t r a -state p o l i t i c a l behaviour consciously and purposefully aimed at the 26 f o r e i g n p o l i c y decision-making process are considered relevanto Morgenthau has focused on the power relations among states. He i s thus led to consider the \"elements of power\", a l l of which turn out to be aspects of the intranational system 0 The l i s t of elements, which runs from natural resources to the quality of government, i s s t r i k i n g l y ex-27 haustive. The power focus and the elimination of motives and ideology 28 as relevant variables l i m i t the depth to which analysis of these 5 elements might go,, however. F i n a l l y , we are l e f t with l i t t l e more than a l i s t of points whose interrelationship i s taken f o r granted,, The r e l a t i v e importance of the points and the manner i n which they are ,integrated into the thing c a l l e d power are not f u l l y discussed. While Morgenthau acknowledges the relevance of the domestic; p o l i t i c a l system, Singer has noted that while i t i s ... by no means inevitable .... we tend to move, i n a system oriented model, away from notions implying much national autonomy and independence of choice and toward a more deterministic orientation,, 29/ The more deterministic the approach, the less relevant are the int e r n a l processes of the s t a t e a Thus, LIska argues that domestic and international p o l i t i c s are separate domains on the grounds that: F i r s t , international p o l i t i c s of the system has i t s conventions, techniques and requirements which, embedded i n t r a d i t i o n and existing conditions, are r e l a t i v e l y independent of the int e r n a l p o l i t i c a l system of any one participant nation. The second and related reason f o r drawing a l i n e ... between domestic and foreign p o l i t i c s i s the persistence of national \"self-preservation\" and \"survival\" as the necessary and s u f f i c i e n t goals of foreign policy,, 3 0 / Thus, the boundaries of the f i e l d of international p o l i t i c s are subject to a great deal of v a r i a t i o n . While f o r one author the domestic system i s c r u c i a l , f o r another i t i s almost i r r e l e v a n t . In between these positions di f f e r e n t authors accept dif f e r e n t degrees of relevance of d i f f e r e n t aspects of the domestic system. To some extent, the position which denies the relevance of one system while the other i s being analyzed i s ju s t i f i a b l e o One might say that certain variables are being held constant while others are being tested. The point i s that i t i s not always clear that the researcher does indeed accept the separation of the f i e l d s as merely an analytic deviceo Because we cannot claim to know that the separation i s v a l i d i n any other sense, such lack of c l a r i t y may be dangerous. It can lead to a d i s t o r t i o n of r e a l i t y and to the loss of insights <, The approaches which -t r y to include some elements of the other system may be s i m i l a r l y dangerouso The l i s t i n g of points may be mistaken f o r analysis\u00C2\u00BB The boundaries between what i s deemed relevant and what irrelevant are often i l l o g i c a l and seemingly arbitrary\u00E2\u0080\u009E Therefore, one of the tasks of p o l i t i c a l science i s the delimitation, through empirical research, of the areas i n which national and international systems overlap 0 We may thus be better able to judge the extent to which the separation of the f i e l d s r e f l e c t s r e a l i t y and to construct more accurate and l o g i c a l models which take aspects of the other system into account when t h i s i s necessary,, This has been the course taken by certain p o l i t i c a l s c i e n t i s t s during the past few years 0 The purpose of this essay i s to provide further evidence about the a r t i f i c i a l i t y or r e a l i t y of the d i v i s i o n of the two f i e l d s . S p e c i f i c a l l y , t h i s paper deals with the relationship between two types of p o l i t i c a l behaviour\u00E2\u0080\u0094 intrastate p o l i t i c a l unrest and interstate violenceo Chapter II The Hypothesis The basic hypothesis of this paper i s that the l e v e l of p o l i t i -c a l unrest within a state and the l e v e l of interstate violence involving that state covary 0 The association varies i n strength and d i r e c t i o n from state to state and with dif f e r e n t time lags. Each type of behaviour may predict p o s i t i v e l y or negatively to succeeding manifestations of the other type of behaviour. Since we are dealing with the potential overlap, as i t were, of national and international systems, i t i s best to conceive of states as very complex and often unstable c o a l i t i o n s , i n which the formal leadership may not always exercise effective control over the c o a l i t i o n members. 3 l / Intrastate p o l i t i c a l -unrest, or domestic unrest, i s overt beha-32 viour by actors within a state. Its purpose i s to express d i s s a t i s f a c -t i o n with, and to influence, the a l l o c a t i o n of values within the state or policy v i s - a - v i s other states. The i n i t i a t i n g actors may be defined i n terms of t h e i r ethnic, r e l i g i o u s , r a c i a l , i d e o l o g i c a l , class or other such associations. The targets of the action are s i m i l a r l y defined groups and/or the incumbents of positions of authority within the same state. The behaviour occurs outside the j u d i c i a l , l e g a l , administrative or formal p o l i t i c a l and.communications processes of the state.~'~> Domestic unrest has a number of implications. (A) It i s a threat to the security of tenure of the national e l i t e s . The threat may be d i r e c t , that i s , an attempt to remove the incumbents from o f f i c e . Unrest may also constitute an indirect threat 0 For example, opposition to s p e c i f i c p o l i c i e s of the e l i t e s can help to create a pool from which 8 34 r e c r u i t s to a more general e l e c t o r a l or subversive opposition may be drawn. Par more b a s i c a l l y , the circumvention of formal state processes i n such action implies a reject i o n of the legitimacy and authoritative-ness of the state i n s t i t u t i o n s and of those who hold o f f i c e i n them. (B) A c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n may be understood as one i n which there exist 35 mutually incompatible goals and purposes between and among groups. Given that we have defined the purpose of unrest behaviour i n terms of the incompatibility of goals, such action c l e a r l y implies the existence of a c o n f l i c t s i t u a t i o n and i s a type of c o n f l i c t behaviour. (C) There-fore, the l e v e l of domestic unrest indicates the degree to which the -in-state society lacks s o l i d a r i t y and integration. Integration i s here to be understood i n terms of the frequency of c o n f l i c t between groups, or \u00E2\u0080\u0094 since unrest may e n t a i l violence \u00E2\u0080\u0094 i n terms of the probability of 37 violence, given a c o n f l i c t situation. Interstate violence i s overt behaviour by actors from one state directed at targets which are under the authority of another stateo The i n i t i a t i n g actors may be private individuals or members of m i l i t a r y or paramilitary organizations. The aim of the action i s to seize t e r r i t o r y , to k i l l , injure or capture human inhabitants, to seize or destroy a i r -c r a f t or shipping, or to destroy other material objects of the other state. Thus, assuming that the population of the attacked state wants none of these things to happen, interstate violence too i s a type of c o n f l i c t behaviour. It i s differ e n t i a t e d from domestic unrest largely i n that i t involves action across international boundaries. However, the nature of c o n f l i c t In the area to be studied \u00E2\u0080\u0094 the Middle East \u00E2\u0080\u0094 leads to a s l i g h t blurring of the conceptual boundaries between the two variables. The problem l i e s i n t h i s : While the attacked state almost always holds the authorities of the state from which the attack emanated responsible f o r the action, these l a t t e r authorities often deny any involvement. I f the attacks are unauthorized, they are a form of domestic unrest. For there are certain state i n s t i t u t i o n s which are supposed to regulate the flow of violence to foreign countries: the government, the general s t a f f and so on 0 The circumvention of these i n s t i t u t i o n s implies, as does the circumvention of i n s t i t u t i o n s of the state i n domestic unrest, a re j e c t i o n of the legitimacy and authorita-tiveness of the structures and of their incumbents. Moreover, since the authorities generally claim that they are trying to suppress such unautho-r i z e d violence, there i s evidently a difference of policy, a c o n f l i c t , between e l i t e s and non-elites. The point may be drawn even further. It can be claimed that subversive elements may engage i n interstate violence primarily i n order to goad the external enemy into r e p r i s a l s . Such counterattacks may lead to the weakening of the authority and coercive power of the national e l i t e s and thus to a situation advantageous to the 39 subversives. In the f i n a l analysis, there i s no way to solve the problem of conceptual blur r i n g . I f the number of events of unauthorized violence i s large enough, interpretation of correlation c o e f f i c i e n t s i s d i f f i c u l t . I f such action i s consciously subversive, high correlation c o e f f i c i e n t s may well be a r t i f a c t u a l . To determine the probability of such d i f f i c u l t i e s a r i s i n g , the actual extent of unauthorized interstate violence must be discovered. 10 A f u l l discussion of the issue of e l i t e r e s p o n s i b i l i t y i s too complex to be dealt with here\u00C2\u00AB ' On the whole, the available evidence indicates that the various state authorities can keep unauthorized violence to a minimum when they want t o 0 ^ I f the l e v e l of such behaviour i s high, i t seems to be because there i s a lack of zeal among those tryi n g to suppress i t . In e f f e c t , non-interference amounts to t a c i t approval and encouragement. Thus, the difference between authorized and unauthorized interstate violence i s minimized, along with the elements of unrest i n the l a t t e r form of behaviour. There are, therefore, l i k e l y to be few t r u l y unauthorized attacks. In these circumstances problems of conceptual blurring and a r t i f a c t u a l correlation are not of major concern 0 According to our hypothesis, domestic unrest and interstate violence covary. The following paragraphs and the review of the pub-li s h e d l i t e r a t u r e i l l u s t r a t e the forms the association may take. The existence of these types of covariation can be tested s t a t i s t i c a l l y . The discussion below goes beyond mere covariance, however, and deals with causal processes l i n k i n g the variables. Such processes are only l o g i c a l ; they cannot be proven. S t i l l , considering them i s p a r t i c u l a r l y useful i n indicating possible intervening variables. By testing them, theory construction may proceed on a sturdier foundation. The following are the four possible relationships between the variables: l ) The higher the l e v e l of domestic p o l i t i c a l unrest, the higher the l e v e l of interstate v i o l e n c e The leadership of a state may seek to d i s t r a c t the populace 11 from engaging i n unrest behaviour by embarking on spectacular and v i o l e n t adventures against an external enemy. 2) The higher the l e v e l of domestic unrest, the lower the l e v e l of interstate violence. The e l i t e s of a state involved i n interstate violence may face concurrent domestic unrest. The a l l o c a t i o n of attention and resources to the problems at home could lead to a corresponding decrease i n the attention and resources allocated to the interstate violence and, consequently, to a decrease i n the l e v e l of such a c t i v i t y . 3) The higher the l e v e l of interstate violence, the higher the l e v e l of domestic unrest. The involvement of a state i n interstate violence can lead to a diversion of attention and resources from pressing internal s o c i a l and p o l i t i c a l problems. The resultant deterioration in.the domestic s i t u a -t i o n could lead sectors of the population to press f o r redress through unrest behaviour. 4) The higher the l e v e l of interstate violence, the lower the l e v e l of domestic unrest. In order to be able to devote more resources and attention to the interstate violence, e l i t e s may f o r c i b l y suppress those involved i n domestic unrest. 12 Chapter I I I Review of the- General Literature No published study deals with exactly the same types of behaviour i n exactly the same context as th i s study does. Some of the relevant research refers to different types of groups or to groups i n general. The types of behaviour examined are often subsets of domestic unrest and interstate violence 0 In other studies broader categories are used. In s t i l l other papers there i s only some overlap with the types of behaviour dealt with here. Some of the implications of each of the variables were outlined above. The exact types of behaviour involved are explained i n Appendices A and B\u00E2\u0080\u009E Reference to these sections w i l l help relate the l i t e r a t u r e covered below to th i s study. The hypothesis and the subsidiary hypotheses used i n th i s paper were largely extrapolated from general propositions about groups and c o n f l i c t posited by Coser i n his reformulation of Simmel's work. The following are three propositions relevant to th i s study 8 C o n f l i c t with another group leads to the mobilization of the energies of group members and hence to increased cohesion of the group. Soc i a l systems lacking s o c i a l s o l i d a r i t y are l i k e l y to d i s i n -tegrate i n the face of outside c o n f l i c t , although some unity may be despotically enforced. 4 l / R i g i d l y organized struggle groups may actually search f o r enemies with the deliberate purpose or unwitting result of maintaining unity and inter n a l cohesion,,... The evocation of an outer enemy or the invention of such an enemy strengthens s o c i a l cohesion that i s threatened from within. 42/ Sumner proposed a relationship similar to the f i r s t of these three. The groups involved are p o l i t i e s , and the c o n f l i c t i s war. (A)ny group, i n order to be strong against an outside enemy, must be wel l - d i s c i p l i n e d , harmonious, and peaceful inside o.. because discord inside would cause defeat i n a battle with another group. 43/ 13 In t h i s formulation of a relationship between intergroup and intragroup c o n f l i c t behaviour i n t e r n a l peace i s not the end sought. Rather, in t e r n a l unity i s a means to the end of v i c t o r y . In other formulations the means and end are reversed. This i s seen i n the t h i r d of Coser's propositions c i t e d above. Intergroup c o n f l i c t becomes the means to intragroup peace. S i v i s pacem internam, para bellum externum summarizes th i s approach. Wright includes a similar delineation of the problem i n his study of war among states. He contends that as a society develops, i t s growth and decreasing homogeneity lead to increasing i n t e r n a l stress and tension. I f these tensions are not to rend the society asunder, h o s t i l i t i e s must be redirected to an external objecto This transference may be consciously manipulated by the e l i t e s or may be performed unconsciously; the state has been able to preserve i t s dominant position only by continuous preparation for-war and occasional resort to war. Haas and Whiting posit a similar process. In their analysis e l i t e s who f e e l t h e i r position threatened by the inte r n a l opposition may turn to 45 external c o n f l i c t behaviour, including war. One of the implications of these scapegoat theories i s that the external enemy may well be invented i n order to provide a target for the release of i n t r a s o c i e t a l tensions. On the other hand, Turner argues that a group w i l l not engage i n scapegoating \"unless i t i s already mobilized for intergroup c o n f l i c t . T h e process i s thus one i n which emphasis i s shifted from one c o n f l i c t to another, rather than one i n which another c o n f l i c t i s created. Another point that should be noted about scapegoat theories i s 14 that they involve two separate propositions when the behaviour i s seen as manipulative. The f i r s t proposition i s that unrest within the society w i l l lead to c o n f l i c t behaviour v i s - a - v i s other states. The second i s that this c o n f l i c t behaviour w i l l actually succeed i n s t i l l i n g i n t e r n a l c o n f l i c t s . A number of empirical studies have been carried out i n r e l a t i o n to the above propositions. Sherif and his colleagues tested a hypothesis similar to the f i r s t one quoted from Coser 1s study above i n terms of small groups of boys engaged i n game c o n f l i c t s . Data gathered by obser-vation of behaviour and relations among individual group members tended to support the hypothesis that The course of relations between two groups which are i n a state of competition and f r u s t r a t i o n v / i l l tend to produce an increase i n in-group s o l i d a r i t y 0 4 7 / Although this was indeed the general trend i n several instances defeat i n a contest with the r i v a l group brought temporarily increased internal f r i c t i o n i n i t s wake. (HoweverTJ heightened s o l i d a r i t y within the group was achieved through united cooperative action by the in-group against the outgroup.... 48/ The r e l a t i o n of t h i s phenomenon to the second proposition quoted from Coser i s quite c l e a r . It i s interesting that the decrease i n s o l i d a r i t y i s so short-lived, and i s overcome i n the face of continued competition. It appears that the authors are dealing with two rather different matters. While i n Coser's proposition the lack of s o c i a l s o l i d a r i t y i s the c r u c i a l variable, i n S h e r i f 1 s experiment discouragement or some similar factor would seem to be operative 0 This study i s interesting i n that i t does demonstrate r e l a t i o n -ships between intergroup and intragroup behaviour. However, i t would be 15 wrong to extrapolate from these findings to the l e v e l of intrastate p o l i -t i c a l unrest and interstate violencej conditions of s o l i d a r i t y among individuals within groups are not necessarily conditions of s o l i d a r i t y among groups within states. Turner tested a scapegoat hypothesis i n the context of reaction to v i o l e n t \"behaviour i n three university communities. He posited that blame for the incidents would be.transferred to non-members of the com-munities. Attitudes expressed by members i n l e t t e r s , newspaper a r t i c l e s 49 and e d i t o r i a l s , and \"informal discussion\" served as the data. ^ The findings indicate that while there was a tendency not to locate blame 50 within the communities, members of outgroups were not blamed either. Blainey studied scapegoating i n the context of the relationship between interstate war and intrastate c i v i l s t r i f e . The antecedents of a l l wars between Y/estern-type states outside L a t i n America from l 8 l 5 to 1939 were examined. I t was found that just over h a l f these wars were 51 preceded by c i v i l s t r i f e within one of the combattant countries. More detailed analysis leads Blainey to the following conclusion: Internal s t r i f e ... was most l i k e l y to lead to international war when i t muffled what had been previously a clear and accepted hierarchy of pov/er between two nations. C i v i l s t r i f e i n the stronger of two states may cause i t to appear weak-ened. The state which had hitherto appeared to be weaker, seizes the opportunity to gain i t s ends. On the other hand, c i v i l s t r i f e i n the weaker of two states merely serves as confirmation of i t s status. I t i s , 52 therefore, no more subject to attack than at other times.' Rosecrance analyzed nine international systems from the European ancien regime to the 1960's, looking f o r s t a b i l i z i n g and d e s t a b i l i z i n g 16 f a c t o r s . * ^ VThatever the weaknesses of the s t u d y , t h e conclusions are worthy of attention. Hosecrance finds that D e s t a b i l i z i n g (international) systems have been introduced con-current with mass s o c i e t a l tendencies; a greater international s t a b i l i t y has been introduced coincident with a greater internal s t a b i l i t y of r u l i n g e l i t e s . 55/ The commentary makes i t clear that scapegoating, as conscious manipula\u00E2\u0080\u0094 56 t i o n by the e l i t e s i s the mechanism involved. Another researcher has approached the problem of the r e l a t i o n -ship between i n t e r n a l disturbances and interstate war with a di f f e r e n t conceptualization of the issues involved. Sorokin contended that the two types of behaviour should be p o s i t i v e l y associated, since both are symptomatic of the breakdown of common value systems within a society. Force then becomes the ultimate arbiter i n a l l c o n f l i c t s . The break-57 down i t s e l f i s a r e s u l t of socio-cultural change i n the society. Sorokin tested the hypothesized association graphically, aggregating the data by centuries and by quarter-centuries 0 In the f i r s t case, no association was discerned. In the second a positive association was 58 e l i c i t e d which was \"neither strong, consistent nor quite tangible.\"^ In a study focusing on domestic turmoil i n the United States i n r e l a t i o n to the Vietnam War, Tanter too analyzed the data graphically. His findings suggest that the .... i n i t i a l rate of change i n antiwar protests ... may be a function of the Vietnam escalation. The change i n demonstrations declines, moreover, with a decrease i n the esca-l a t i o n of the war.... A somewhat similar pattern seems to characterize urban r i o t s and c i v i l rights p a r t i c i p a t i o n . 59/ Rudolph Rummel has approached the problem of a relationship be-tween foreign and domestic c o n f l i c t behaviour d i f f e r e n t l y than any of the above analysts. His approach has been cross-sectional rather than l o n g i -17, t u d i n a l . Although not of i t s e l f s t r i c t l y relevant to th i s study, the purely cross-sectional analysis i s a good point at which to star t the examination of mixed, cross-sectional-cum-longitudinal, analyses. (The relevance of cross-sectional research to t h i s paper i s limite d by two factors. F i r s t , by omitting the time factor, temporal p r i o r i t y cannot he determined. With no notion of the- temporal r e l a -tionship between two variables, i t i s d i f f i c u l t to interpret an associ-ation between them i n processual and causal terms. Furthermore, the existence of a relationship across a l l states cannot be interpreted to mean that the relationship obtains for any pa r t i c u l a r state. Yet the causal processes operating i n certain states are what th i s study aims to find.) In one study Rummel tested a hypothesis which may be interpreted i n the following terms: A state with a high l e v e l of domestic i n s t a b i -l i t y i s l i k e l y to engage i n more/less foreign c o n f l i c t behaviour than 61 another state with a lower l e v e l of p o l i t i c a l i n s t a b i l i t y . ^ Rummel concludes that there i s \" l i t t l e relationship\" between the variables. Most of the mixed analyses have been based on factor analysis. The factor analyses performed since 1949 have tended to reveal separate 62 dimensions for foreign and domestic c o n f l i c t behaviour. The only ex-ceptions have occurred when certain controls were imposed on the data. C a t t e l l , Breul and Hartman extracted a dimension which included war, foreign clashes and r i o t s , ^ when they r e s t r i c t e d t h e i r study to \"modern i n d u s t r i a l n a t i o n s . \" ^ Rummel reports that Chadwick's factor analysis of annual data revealed dimensions common to types of foreign 65 and domestic c o n f l i c t behaviour. 18 As the factor analyses have been used as bases f o r further analysis, the c l a r i t y of the separation of foreign from domestic con-f l i c t behaviour has been obscured. Thus, i n a study i n which canonical equations were based on factor analyzed data, P h i l l i p s found that the type and amount of foreign c o n f l i c t behaviour sent by states during 1963 correlated highly with the type and amount received i n that year. For certain states, however, the canonical equations did not provide adequate predictions. Stepwise regression then revealed that modernized nations experiencing i n f l a t i o n and i n t e r n a l violence, possibly associated with the unlawful exchange of leadership, are l i k e l y to over respond m i l i t a r i l y to t h e i r environment. 66/ Hazlewood, using canonical correlation based on factor analyzed foreign and domestic c o n f l i c t behaviour data and other variables, found that Economic s t a b i l i t y , s o c i e t a l heterogeneity, and i n t e r n a l turmoil predict best to war. 67/ Other studies have introduced a longitudinal component into cross-sectional analyses by introducing time l a g s 0 Thus, Tanter, using multiple regression analysis, found a small relationship between domestic and foreign c o n f l i c t behavior, especially with a time lag. 68/ In a study r e s t r i c t e d to African states during the years 1963 to 1965* C o l l i n s based zero-order and multiple correlations on factor analyzed foreign and domestic c o n f l i c t data. Cross-sectional analysis revealed moderate to strong associations between types of interstate c o n f l i c t and types of domestic disorder. When inter n a l disorder i n one year was correlated with foreign c o n f l i c t i n the following year, certain associa-tions did remain quite strong. However, prediction to interstate v i o -19 69 lence became much weaker. x Wilkenfeld carried the- longitudinal aspect of the analysis somewhat further. Correlations were based on groups of similar nations and on the factor scores for each of them extracted on an annual 70 basis. The groups of nations were based on those derived i n Banks and Gregg's Q-factor analysis of the p o l i t i c a l variables of the Cross-Polity 71 Survey. Wilkenfeld's hypothesis was stated i n the following terms: Within certain groups of nations c l a s s i f i e d according to type of nation, there i s a tendency for internal (domestic) and external (foreign) c o n f l i c t behavior to co-occur, or for the occurrence\" of one to be. followed by the occurrence of the other. 72/ The findings furnish evidence to support the hypothesis. A study by Wilkenfeld and Zinnes tends to confirm part of W i l -kenfeld' s research. A Markov analysis based on the factorization of domestic and foreign c o n f l i c t variables, revealed that the l e v e l of interstate c o n f l i c t i s a useful predictor to changes i n the l e v e l of internal c o n f l i c t behaviour. The predictive power varied according to the type and intensity of the interstate and intrastate c o n f l i c t 73 involved and according to the time lags and the type of state. What i s p a r t i c u l a r l y relevant about these mixed studies i s the generally increasing salience of the association between internal and external c o n f l i c t variables as increasing emphasis i s l a i d on the l o n g i -tudinal component. This would seem to indicate that the relationship posited i n our hypothesis i s more l i k e l y to f i n d supportive evidence than a relationship of the sort hypothesized by Rummel. The study by Wilkenfeld, Lussier and Tahtinen emphasizes the longitudinal aspect of the analysis most heavily. Factor analyses of foreign and domestic c o n f l i c t behaviour for each of six Middle Eastern 20 states served as the basis f o r stepwise regression analysis. The findings lead the authors to conclude that there i s an association be-tween the two types of behaviour f o r each state. The association 74 va r i e s i n type and strength from one country to the other. A number of points may be drawn from t h i s review of the l i t e r a -ture. The f i r s t point i s that relationships between interstate c o n f l i c t and violence and domestic unrest may indeed be found. Fxo?thermore, the relationships apparently vary from state to state and over time. Another point i s that these relationships tend to be rather weak, while the association between action of each type and other action of the same type tend to be stronger. Thus, Wilkenfeld concludes that The generally small size of the correlation c o e f f i c i e n t s ... indicate that we have not explained a great deal of the variance i n foreign c o n f l i c t behavior on the basis of domestic c o n f l i c t and vice versa. 75/ The greater and more general strength of association between behaviours of the same type i s indicated by the separate dimensions of. foreign and domestic c o n f l i c t extracted i n the factor analyses. Even with the i n -c l u s i o n of longitudinal elements, the r e l a t i v e strength of the r e l a t i o n -ships does not change. Thus, Tanter found more of the variance i n domes-t i c c o n f l i c t explained by preceding domestic than by foreign c o n f l i c t . S i m i l a r l y , foreign c o n f l i c t was predicted better by preceding behaviour of the same type. Wilkenfeld, Lussier and Tahtinen found that the most important predictors of each state's foreign c o n f l i c t behaviour are the c o n f l i c t behaviours directed toward i t by other states. 77/ 7R P h i l l i p s ' cross-sectional analysis indicates the same thing. C o l l i n s 1 findings show closer associations between and among foreign c o n f l i c t variables and between and among domestic c o n f l i c t variables than between 21 79 ' variables of both types. Indeed, the general implication of th i s group of studies i s that not much insight into the two types of c o n f l i c t behaviour i s l o s t when the f i e l d s of domestic and international p o l i t i c s are held separateo Any relationship between the two \"genera\" seems to be a secondary factor i n the processes leading to the occurrence of behaviour of each \"genus\". To some extent, t h i s i s i n l i n e with one of the points raised i n the review of the the o r e t i c a l l i t e r a t u r e . Turner, i t was noted, proposed that scape-goating w i l l not take place unless there i s already some c o n f l i c t brew-ing with the external enemy; the internal c o n f l i c t i s only a c a t a l y t i c agent i n the process leading to increased interstate c o n f l i c t behaviour. Therefore, i t seems to be i n order to test t h i s point: What i s the r e l a t i v e strength of association between each type of behaviour and the other kind, and between each and other behaviour of the same kind? One l a s t point can be derived from the published l i t e r a t u r e : ' an awareness of the complexity of the processes we are dealing with. In abstracting the two sorts of action from t h e i r environment, we may lose sight of t h i s . I t seems best to conceive of each variable as part of a concatenation of phenomena somehow related to each other. Only then can a study l i k e t h i s be useful \u00E2\u0080\u0094 when i t i s seen as a preliminary step i n the elucidation of these complex processes. 22 . Chapter IV Review of the Literature on the Four States The states which were selected f o r this study are Egypt, I s r a e l , Jordan and Sy r i a . There are a number of reasons for this selection. The f i r s t i s my own interest i n these countries. The second i s the: occurrence of a rather large number of domestic unrest and interstate violence events i n them. I t i s the lack of a s u f f i c i e n t number of such incidents reported which led to the omission of other Middle Eastern states. The t h i r d reason f o r choosing these countries i s the a v a i l a b i l i t y of i n f o r -mation, the ease of c o l l a t i o n of data from readily accessible sources. The l a s t reason i s the recurrent emphasis i n the l i t e r a t u r e on the close connection between interstate and domestic p o l i t i c s i n the region. It i s to t h i s l i t e r a t u r e that we must now turn 0 An overview of this body of work w i l l be p a r t i c u l a r l y useful i n providing further background f o r the interpretation of the findings. I s r a e l The evidence regarding the relationship between the variables i n the case of I s r a e l i s inconclusive. Wilkenfeld's analysis of types of states may be applied to individual countries to the extent that the lon-g i t u d i n a l element determines the nature of the relationships found. Un-fortunately, the impact of t h i s element i s not c l e a r 0 In any case, W i l -80 kenfeld found that for the group of polyarchic states, which includes 8 l I s r a e l , domestic turmoil i s moderately associated with concurrent and 82 subsequent behaviour on the war, that i s , interstate violence, dimension. The types of behaviour involved i n these dimensions are similar to those 23 involved i n the variables used i n t h i s paper. Despite these findings, the study by Wilkenfeld and h i s colleagues reveals no such relationship f o r I s r a e l itself.\u00C2\u00AE^ In a study based on survey data Peres found the tranquil r e l a -tions among I s r a e l i Jews of different origins largely attributable to t h e i r s o l i d a r i t y i n the face of the external Arab threat. This same c o n f l i c t , however, serves to increase the distance between Jews and Arabs 85 i n the state. Peres does not extrapolate to the l e v e l of c o n f l i c t behaviour between Jews and Arabs. The i n t u i t i v e l i t e r a t u r e tends to ignore the possibly contra-dictory effects of the violent c o n f l i c t with the Arab states. The h o s t i l i t i e s are seen to have \"promoted national integration, construction 86 and c r e a t i v i t y , \" and to have helped i n the development of \"a modern, Qtj strong and homogeneous I s r a e l i nation, capable of survival.\" Another analyst notes that Alors que l a structure sociale israelienne offre une p o s s i b i l i t e r e e l l e de miner le regime de l ' i n t e r i e u r , les dirigeants nationalistes arabes ont reussi ce prodige de ressouder en per-manence l a f r a g i l e a l l i a n c e entre les masses sepharadites et les dirigeants i s r a e l i e n s . 88/ (D 1ailleurs,) l a classe dirigeante israelienne ... a su exploiter habilement (cette) menace exterieur permanente.... 89/ General Burns takes the scapegoating analysis somewhat further. He notes that the I s r a e l i leadership tends to blame the state's economic and other d i f f i c u l t i e s on the Arab boycott. In such circumstances, there seems to me to be a great tempta-tion to f i n d some excuse to go to war and thus to break out of the blockade and boycott. 90/ With specific reference to the period preceding the 1967 war, during which there was a great increase i n attacks upon and from I s r a e l , 24 Kimche and Bawly suggest a process similar to the one posited by Blainey: b a s i c a l l y , the Isr a e l of early 1967 presented an unhappy picture (of unemployment, bankruptcies, emigration, and weak govern-ment., o. ( l ) t was th i s picture of a weakened Isr a e l that the Arab leaders bore i n mind as they l a i d t h e i r plans.... 91/ In general, therefore, the i n t u i t i v e analyses lead us to expect some interrelationship between unrest and interstate violence, while the s t a t i s t i c a l studies provide contradictory evidence. Syria The. l i t e r a t u r e on Syria i s neither as extensive nor as intensive as that on I s r a e l . In the study by Wilkenfeld and his colleagues, a positive relationship between domestic violence i n one period and i n t e r -state verbal h o s t i l i t y i n succeeding periods i s found, but no association 92 i s discerned between the former and m i l i t a r y actions. It may well be that relationships are being obscured because of the manner i n which the data were collected. Although Syria was united with Egypt f o r most of the time from 1958 to the end of 1961, data were collated and regressions 93 calculated as i f the country had been independent f o r the entire period. Burrowes and Spector, however, who dealt only with the period since secession, also found only weak correlations between the two types of c o n f l i c t behaviour. What relationship did exist was largely negative. The strongest associations were between interstate violence indicators 94 and anti-subversive acts by the e l i t e s . Multiple regression did not reveal a strong t i e between domestic and foreign c o n f l i c t indicators. The 95 imposition of lags yielded only s l i g h t l y stronger associations. The i n t u i t i v e analyses tend to be more assertive about a r e l a -tionship between the two kinds of action. Usually, however,.the asser-tions refer not to general p o l i t i c a l processes i n Syria, but to s p e c i f i c 25 incidents. One of the points most often made i s that the Palestine War resulted i n great p o l i t i c a l upheavals. Strikes, r i o t s and coups d'etat f i n d t h e i r o r i g i n i n the great Arab disaster, blame f o r which was l a i d to the leadership The reverse process, domestic unrest leading to interstate v i o -lence, i s also discerned at various points i n Syrian history. In his analysis of the origins of the June War Laqueur perceives manipulative scapegoating on the part of the neo-Baathist e l i t e s . The security of tenure of t h e i r positions was doubtful: they had no mass support and had just fended o f f two coups. ( l ) t was clear from the beginning that this weakness would impel the regime to take a mili t a n t l i n e on the one issue that was universally popular \u00E2\u0080\u0094 Palestine. 97/ The r e s u l t of t h i s insecurity was the increase i n border clashes with, and 98 / terrorism against, I s r a e l . Kimche and Bawly also see the neo-Baathist regime's i n s t a b i l i t y as an important element i n Syria's espousal of 99 v i o l e n t t a c t i c s against I s r a e l . In general, therefore, while the i n t u i t i v e analyses point to pos i t i v e associations between unrest and interstate violence, the s t a t i s t i c a l studies by Wilkenfeld and his colleagues and by Burrowes and Spector indicate no important relationship between the variables. J ordan Wilkenfeld, Lussier and Tahtinen found a positive association between domestic violence i n Jordan and m i l i t a r y actions undertaken by Jordan during the same period.\"*\"^ Insofar as the mixed study by Wilken-f e l d may be interpreted longitudinally, internal war behaviour i n cen-26 t r i s t states,'*'^\"*' l i k e Jordan, predicts to war behaviour with increa-sing strength as the lag lengthens. 1 0^ There i s no evidence that the reverse process applies. In his i n t u i t i v e analysis V a t i k i o t i s notes an association be-tween interstate violence and domestic unrest i n Jordan. . He maintains that I s r a e l i r e p r i s a l raids can lead to p o l i t i c a l disturbances. I f there i s great loss of c i v i l i a n l i f e and property i n such attacks, an angry populace may protest against rulers obviously incapable of pro-tec t i n g them. The e l i t e s ' ineptitude can also be interpreted as a lack of interest \" i n restoring the f o r f e i t e d rights of \" the Palestinians. I f there are many Jordanian m i l i t a r y casualties, \"the loy a l t y of the o f f i c e r s 104 can waver,\" and conspiracies can r e s u l t . Other i n t u i t i v e analysts are not as forthright i n positing a relationship between interstate violence and domestic unrest. At most, such researchers point out that the e l i t e s must declare implacable h o s t i -105 l i t y to I s r a e l i n order to maintain t h e i r positions. Based on these few studies, one may expect that, i n the case of Jordan, our own findings w i l l reveal that domestic unrest predicts posi-t i v e l y to subsequent interstate violence, and that the reverse i s also true. . Egypt Wilkenfeld and his colleagues found a positive association be-tween domestic violence and m i l i t a r y actions of Egypt. The relationship 106 i s s l i g h t l y stronger than the one e l i c i t e d for Jordan. Wilkenfeld 1s findings about the prediction of war from the inte r n a l war behaviour of 107 ce trxst states apply to he United Arab Republic as well as to J rdan.27 Turning to the i n t u i t i v e l i t e r a t u r e we f i n d many authors pointing to situations i n which e l i t e insecurity led to involvement i n violent foreign adventures. Thus, the intervention i n Palestine was meant \"to d i s t r a c t attention from internal d i f f i c u l t i e s . \" Similar considerations are seen to have led the Y/afdist government to embark on 109 violent c o n f l i c t against the B r i t i s h i n the Canal Zone. y Dekmejian notes that the Free Of f i c e r s learned to use foreign policy \u00E2\u0080\u0094 pa r t i c u -l a r l y i n the forms of c o n f l i c t with the West, I s r a e l and Arab \"r e a c t i o -naries\" \u00E2\u0080\u0094 as a means of strengthening t h e i r domestic position.\"*'\"*'^ The reverse process \u00E2\u0080\u0094 international violence leading to domestic unrest \u00E2\u0080\u0094 i s not consistently suggested by i n t u i t i v e analysts. Thus, as i n Syria, the Palestine War disaster was blamed on the e l i t e s and led to high levels of domestic u n r e s t . O n the other hand, the m i l i t a r y disaster of the Suez-Sinai War i s seen to have led to increased s o l i d a r i t y 112 i n the nation as i t closed ranks behind Nasser. The circumstances surrounding the wars were, of course, quite d i f f e r e n t . In general, researchers seem to agree that domestic unrest leads to interstate violence f o r Egypt. There i s no agreement on the reverse process, however. 28 Chapter V Operationalization A) General Design As noted above, t h i s paper i s concerned with certain causal relationships i n p o l i t i c a l processes. Causality implies the temporal p r i o r i t y of cause over e f f e c t . Process implies change and behaviour over time.\"*\"*^ I t , therefore, seems l o g i c a l to use longitudinal methods of analysis. Cross-sectional studies are 'psycho- or soc i o - s t a t i c ' , providing a simultaneous and synoptic study of the situ a t i o n as i t i s at (a given point i n time). Longitudinal ... studies are 'socio-or psycho-dynamic* and are interested i n change. 114/ By using longitudinal methods, one may avoid the question that confronts the user of cross-sectional techniques(;) that of whether i t i s ever appropriate \u00E2\u0080\u0094 and, i f so, when \u00E2\u0080\u0094 to base inferences regarding change over time on the analysis of data collected on a single time point. 115/ In a longitudinal study one may observe that one type of behaviour consistently precedes another type. One may then i n f e r that both are elements of a single process and that the former causes the l a t t e r . A cross-sectional study, by omitting the temporal relationship, makes such interpretation more d i f f i c u l t . Causality cannot, i n any case, be proven since 0 what we r e f e r to as 'causes' are .... not simple, tangible l i n k s i n the chain of sense experience, but rather d e t a i l s i n an i n t r i c a t e pattern of concepts. 116/ But the aim of s o c i a l science i s to build concepts that f i t with observed r e a l i t y . The looser the f i t between observations and concepts, the more limited i s the value of those concepts. I t should be noted that pro-cessual concepts f i t cross-sectional observations rather poorly. 29 In t h i s essay the association between domestic unrest and in t e r s t a t e violence w i l l be tested i n the following manner: Indicators of the two variables w i l l be correlated with each other. Correlations f o r each state w i l l be computed both with and without time lags. Furthermore, measures of each type of behaviour w i l l be correlated with the measures of subsequent behaviour of the same type. B) The Variables l ) Intrastate P o l i t i c a l Unrest Domestic unrest was defined above as overt behaviour which emanates from and i s directed within a state's society and which expresses d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n with the a l l o c a t i o n of values i n the society or with some aspect of foreign p o l i c y . I t should be noted that our concern i s with overt behaviour and not with other manifestations of d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n such as withdrawal or non-participation. The basic reason f o r this l i m i t a t i o n i s o b s e r v a b i l i t y of behaviour, not only by the s o c i a l s c i e n t i s t but by the other members of the society. Without surveys of non-participants, p a r t i c i p a n t s and e l i t e s i n each state i t i s d i f f i c u l t , i f not impossible, to know whether non-participation stems from d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n , unaware-ness or from some other factors. Nor i s i t possible to assess the attitudes and surmises of the e l i t e s about this non-participation. Domestic unrest behaviour, as we have defined i t , i s both e a s i l y observa-ble and interpretable as c o n f l i c t and d i s s a t i s f a c t i o n behaviour. The typology of such behaviour used i n th i s essay i s loosely 117 based on the one used by Morrisson and Stevenson. The categories here are somewhat grosser, however, partly so that they may be more comparable with, the typologies used i n other studies. This grossness does not 30 r e a l l y a f f e c t our findings, since no calculations involve s p e c i f i c categories of behaviour. >(The reasons f o r t h i s non-involvement are out-l i n e d below.) Appendix A l i s t s the categories usedo One type of unrest behaviour not included i n t h i s essay i s Q \" p l o t s . \" The trouble with such actions i s that t h e i r revelation i s dependent e n t i r e l y upon the e l i t e s allegedly plotted against. The alleged plot may be only a pretext by which the govern-ment seeks to eliminate i t s p o l i t i c a l competitors. 118/ The \"exposure\" of a plot may thus be a response to other unrest or to legitimate opposition behaviour. Plots, along with purges and p o l i t i c a l arrests, would thus be only i n d i r e c t l y indicators of unrest behaviour. They might be better indicators of the e l i t e s ' assessment of the security of t h e i r p o sitions. While these types of action might well constitute a useful separate measure, the very incomplete data available preclude t h e i r use. Including one of these types \u00E2\u0080\u0094 a measure of e l i t e response \u00E2\u0080\u0094 i n the unrest categories, would add only to conceptual murkiness, f o r our aim here i s to discern whether interstate violence i s such a response to unrest. Two measures are used f o r intrastate p o l i t i c a l unrest. The f i r s t consists of the number of unrest events of a l l types occurring during a given time period. The second i s a measure of the magnitude of these events. During the remainder of the essay, the f i r s t w i l l be referred to as incidence of unrest; the second \u00E2\u0080\u0094 as magnitude of unrest. Magnitude of unrest i s a value based on a combination of measures of casualties, duration and t e r r i t o r i a l extent of each unrest incident. The combined measure was decided upon after pretesting i n d i -31 cated that i t generally provided stronger correlations than did any of the constituent measures. T e r r i t o r i a l extent provided the best corre-lat i o n s of the three; casualties \u00E2\u0080\u0094 the weakest. Casualties are determined by the number of dead and injured r e s u l t i n g from each incident. Because the number of casualties i s being compared only within each country and not across states, the number of casualties per m i l l i o n was not determined. While i t might have been useful to take into account the growth of each state, the number of cen-suses during the seventeen years of the study was not great enough to make the exercise, worthwhile. The duration score f o r each event i s based on the number of days the incident lasted. A r i o t which occurs at some time between one mid-night and the next and l a s t s up to twenty-four hours receives a duration score of one. I f such an event continues during the next day, the score i s two, and so on and so f o r t h . For c e r t a i n types of behaviour, t e r r o r i s t attacks and coups, there i s no duration score. How long i s a bomb blast? Also, the essence of a coup d'etat i s i t s speed. A long coup i s evidence not of the magni-119 tude of insurgency but of the strength of the incumbents. y A duration score i s thus quite irrelevant to magnitude i n terms of these behaviours 0 T e r r i t o r i a l extent i s a measure substituted f o r the p a r t i c i p a -120 t i o n measure o r i g i n a l l y desired. Data on participants i s seldom ava i l a b l e . When a number i s reported, i t often varies so from source to source as to produce more f r u s t r a t i o n than information. T e r r i t o r i a l extent refers to the number of l o c a l i t i e s \u00E2\u0080\u0094 v i l -lages, towns, refugee camps, and so on \u00E2\u0080\u0094 i n which an unrest event occurs. 32 Because of the poor quality of population data, no d i f f e r e n t i a t i o n i s made according to the size* of the community. The highest score possible on t h i s measure i s ten. This number i s used to designate an incident taking place i n a l l parts of the country. The number of casualties involved i n an event i s often very large. Simply adding the duration and extent scores to the number of casualties would lead to the former being swamped i n many cases. To avoid such an e f f e c t , the standard score of each measure of each event was computed. The event score thus consists of the sum of the standard scores of the three measures. The magnitude of unrest score f o r a time period consists of the sum of the scores of a l l the events occurring during that period. I t i s obvious that both incidence of unrest and magnitude of unrest are d i s t o r t i v e measures. The former treats each event as i f i t were just as important as every other event of unrest. This i s hardly, l i k e l y to be an accurate r e f l e c t i o n of r e a l i t y . S t i l l , i t i s only a measure of incidence we are dealing with. The second measure i s based on the assumption that the three constituents form an accurate r e f l e c t i o n of the magnitude of an event. The measure assumes that there are no other elements involved i n the mag-nitude of an incident; .that property damage, f o r example, i s not a suitable measure. The point i s , of course, that the measures are based on consistently available data. Neither property damage nor the number of participants i s recorded with any consistency. Another point that must be considered i s that the magnitude mea-sure i s based on the assumption that there i s nothing immanent i n a type 33 of action which makes i t a greater threat to the security of tenure of the e l i t e s than any other type of behaviour. This i s hardly l i k e l y to he the case. A l o g i c a l place to begin the analysis might thus have been with the computation of the correlations using each type of unrest beha-viour separately. However, the number of incidents of each type i s neither great nor variable enough over time to make such analysis mean-i n g f u l . Factor analysis might have indicated which types of action could be combined on the same measure. Such a procedure was beyond our resources, ( i n t h i s connection i t i s noteworthy that published factor analyses of actions of the types dealt with here indicate a tendency to-ward unidimensionality i n such behaviour f o r the four states studied 121 here. Grouping a l l the types of unrest behaviour together i s thus less d i s t o r t i v e than one might have expected.) Scaling might have over-come the homogenization of the intensity of the diff e r e n t events, a homogenization inherent i n grouping a l l of them together. The F e i e r -abends and Nesvold have constructed several scales f o r c o n f l i c t behaviour ranging from simple consensual and construct-validity scales to more complicated ones, such as the Guttman scalogram. 122/ Acceptable and s c i e n t i f i c a l l y validated though such scales may be, they do tend to increase the arbitrary nature of one's measures. One must assign weights to positions on the scale and decide how such weights may be combined with other measures such as the three used here. Such d e c i -sions cannot help but be arbi t r a r y . The usefulness of one's measures i s thus placed i n doubt. A scaling procedure was, therefore, abandoned and the incidence and magnitude measures took the form outlined above. 34 2) Interstate Violence 1 Interstate violence was defined above as the seizure, injury or k i l l i n g of the inhabitants of a state, the seizure of i t s t e r r i t o r y and the seizure and/or destruction of i t s a i r c r a f t or shipping by personnel from another state. The types of action involved and th e i r d e f i n i t i o n s are l i s t e d i n Appendix B. Two measures of the l e v e l of interstate violence are used i n th i s essay: the incidence of violence and the magnitude of violenceo The incidence measure for a state i s simply the number of interstate violence events i n which the country i s involved \u00E2\u0080\u0094 whether as aggressor or v i c t i m \u00E2\u0080\u0094 during a given time period. I t was o r i g i n a l l y planned to use two incidence measures, the attacks sustained and the attacks i n i t i -ated by each country. A problem arose when the data were collated, how-ever. Roughly one-third of the interstate violence events were the sub-jects of claims and counterclaims by the states involved. Thus any decision as to the id e n t i t y of the i n i t i a t o r i n a s p e c i f i c case would be highly a r b i t r a r y . Double-counting such events as violence both sus-tained and i n i t i a t e d by a single state would l i k e l y have led to great distortions i n our s t a t i s t i c . The d i s t i n c t i o n was, therefore, omitted. The magnitude of violence measure for a state i s indicated by the number of casualties \u00E2\u0080\u0094 dead and wounded \u00E2\u0080\u0094 suffered by a l l parties i n the interstate violence events i n which a state i s involved during a given time period. One problem with t h i s measure i s that there are often two or more di f f e r e n t sets of casualty figures published about one event. When they were available, the numbers reported by United Nations M i l i -tary Observers wore used. In the absence of UN figures, those supplied 35, by each state for the casualties i t sustained were counted. I f only one state reported on casualties, including those of the other party, and there were no contrary reports, these were the data used. As with the incidence measure, i t was o r i g i n a l l y planned to use two measures for the magnitude of violence of each state; namely, casu-a l t i e s sustained and casualties i n f l i c t e d . The problem with the d i s t i n c -t i o n was i t s questionable usefulness. The levels of casualties sustained and i n f l i c t e d by a state tend to be highly correlated. The value of the rank-order correlation between these levels, using six-month temporal 12 3 units over the years 1950 to 1966, i s 4.88 for Jordan, for example. In these circumstances i t does not seem too l i k e l y that there would be any significant differences between correlations of each of these measures with the domestic unrest ones. The d i s t i n c t i o n would thus be of l i t t l e value for substantive - interpretation. Hence, this plan too was abandoned. Other indicators of the magnitude of interstate violence, such as the value of property destroyed, would have been desirable, since much of the interstate violence i n the Middle East i s not directed at people. Such data, however, are rarely available. In counting incidents of interstate violence, one important ex-ception was made. Attacks against embassies and similar e x t r a t e r r i t o r i a l emplacements were not cdunted, because i t i s too often impossible to d i s -entangle them from a context of domestic unrest. Violence directed at embassies often occurs as part of unrest events i n which the close r e l a -tionship between the national e l i t e s and the foreign state i s being pro-tested. On the other hand, attacks on occupying armies, when the occupa-ti o n i s protested by the e l i t e s , were counted as interstate violence. 36 When i t was impossible to i d e n t i f y both states involved i n an incident, i t was not countedo C) The States As noted above, the states dealt with here are Egypt, I s r a e l , Jordan and Syria. Syria and Egypt present a s l i g h t problem because they were u n i f i e d f o r a time. One study sought to circumvent the problem by 124 treating each as completely independent throughout. In t h i s paper two sets of calculations are made for each state. For Syria, one set i s based on data f o r the periods during which Syria was independent, 1950-1957 and 1962-1966. For simp l i c i t y , the country i s c a l l e d \"Syria\" when the f i r s t set i s referred to and the \"Syrian Arab Republic\" or the \"SAR\" when the second set i s dealt with. For Egypt, one set of calculations i s based on data f o r events emanating from, or occurring within, the t e r r i t o r y of Egypt i t s e l f o The second set includes data on events involving Syria during the period of union. The country i s called \"Egypt\" i n the former case and the \"United Arab Republic\" or the \"UAR\" i n the l a t t e r . Syrian data are included i n Egyptian calculations rather than vic e versa because Cairo, not Damascus, was the locus of power during the union: Egyptians, not Syrians, held the reins of power and determined 125 fo r what purposes t h i s power was to be used. D) Time The data for each of the states were collected f o r the seventeen years 1 9 5 0 to 1 9 6 6 . Two sets of correlations are computed for each country. One set i s based on a temporal unit of six calendar months: 1 January to 3 0 June and 1 July to 3 1 December. For the second set data are aggregated for each calendar year. The basic reason for using 37 two temporal units i s that we do not know what the temporal relationship between the two variables might be. Nor can we assume that the time element i s the same i n diffe r e n t states. For one country, one temporal unit may be more sensitive to increases and decreases i n an association. For another state, the second temporal unit may be the more sensitive one. Each temporal unit has Its own defect as f a r as co r r e l a t i o n a l analysis i s concerned. The year-long spans reduce the number of observa-tions greatly. On the other hand, the half-year spans increase the number of periods t i e d on the same rank f o r a given variable. Given the data and the states involved, these problems are unavoidable. Other temporal units are not used for a number of reasons. Longer ones would reduce the number of observations too greatly. Shorter ones would lead to an even greater proportion of t i e d ranks. Nor are time periods on the order of one month even p a r t i c u l a r l y l o g i c a l bases f o r analysis. In i n t u i t i v e studies of s p e c i f i c states reactions from 126 unrest to interstate violence and vice versa are seen as either immediate 127 or r e l a t i v e l y long term. Lags of one month and two months are hardly l i k e l y to reveal either association too well. Lags of from six to 24 months are hardly more l i k e l y to reveal the direction of immediate reactions than are the shorter ones. They may well be better at revealing the long term associations, however. Wilkenfeld, Lussier and Tahtinen argue for the use of the one month temporal unit on the basis of the i n s t a b i l i t y of e l i t e tenure i n 128 Middle Eastern states. This argument tends to lose i t s relevance when one looks more closely at the states involved. Indeed, the degree of 38 continuity i n p o l i t i c s i s quite remarkable. Despite coups and r e l a t i v e l y frequent cabinet changes, personnel and p o l i c i e s tend to remain stableo The central roles of Mapai, Hussein and Nasser f o r most of the period covered are unquestionable. Syria did have over forty cabinets from 1945 to 1967\u00C2\u00AB Yet the membership r o l l s of succeeding cabinets tend to overlap 129 greatly. ' Even when great changes occurred, actual control often con-tinued i n the hands of dictators.or Revolutionary Command Councils. In general, temporal units of six months and one year are not i l l o g i c a l bases f o r seeking the hypothesized associations. E) The S t a t i s t i c The s t a t i s t i c used i n t h i s study i s the Spearman rank order cor-r e l a t i o n . Significance i s tested at the .05 l e v e l i n a two-tail t e s t . The non-normal and non-normalized d i s t r i b u t i o n of the data i n d i -cates that a non-parametric s t a t i s t i c i s in. order. Although i t has 131 \"serious shortcomings,\" Spearman's rho i s easier to calculate and less incomparable \u00E2\u0080\u0094 conceptually \u00E2\u0080\u0094 to the s t a t i s t i c s used i n the published l i t e r a t u r e than, say, Somers' D would be. Kendall's tau, a two-way st a -t i s t i c l i k e rho, was rejected f o r the same reasons. I t might be noted that while there i s a difference i n the numeric value of rho and tau for a given set of observations, both \" w i l l reject the n u l l hypothesis ... at 132 the same l e v e l of significance.\" The weaknesses of Spearman's rho. w i l l be noted and taken into account when the findings are considered. Si g n i f i c a n t values of rho are determined on the basis of tables of c r i t i c a l values presented by Hode\"*\"^ and by Snedecor and Cochran.\"**\"^ The data upon which the correlations are based constitute the entire population of certain types of events which are recorded i n cer-39 t a i n publications. We are dealing with neither a random sample nor a randomized population. In such circumstances, the determination and meaningfulness of significance tests are subjects of controversy. \" ^ The use of such tests here indicates our basic agreement with such arguments as those of Goldo\"^ The importance of these tests must not 137 be overrated. They are but one \"formal c r i t e r i o n \" 1 to help us assess the importance of correlation values. As Gold points out, s t a t i s t i c a l significance i s not a s u f f i c i e n t condition f o r a t t r i b u t i n g substantive importance to the observed a s s o c i -ation.... In addition, the analyst must attend to the size of the association.... 138/ 139 and to the underlying v a r i a b i l i t y of the observations. I t i s i n t h i s context that the significance test i s used here. F) Data Sources Azar and his colleagues have pointed out the danger of r e l y i n g on a single data source f o r interstate events data.\"* -^ Wilkenfeld, Lussier and Tahtinen note that Multiple sources ... add to the volume, comprehensiveness and s e n s i t i v i t y of the data set, while countering systematic biases, random lapses, misinformation and ambiguity of individual sources. 141/ With these points i n mind, data were gathered from the following sources: The Hew York Times Index, Keesing's Contemporary Archives, The Middle East Journal, and the Jewish Agency Digest of Press and Events which underwent two t i t l e and format changes to become the Israel Weekly Digest and then the Is r a e l Digest (bi-weekly). In addition United Nations Security Council O f f i c i a l Records and Documents were used as a source f o r interstate violence data. Each source i s , as might be expected, better for certain types of 4 0 events than f o r others. Keesing*s, f o r example, i s good for the more spectacular, that i s , more viole n t , unrest and interstate violence events and f o r most incidents involving a European power. The Digests emphasise a l l Arab attacks on I s r a e l . Since they are propaganda journals, this i s to he expected. However, they do also supply a great deal of information on I s r a e l i attacks on Arab states. The attacks are j u s t i f i e d , explained, or Arab claims are dismissed, but they are nonethe-less reported. One further point might be made about the data sources. Reports of interstate violence incidents are based on claims and ad-missions made by the states involved. Even reports by the UN Truce Supervision Organization are based on complaints by one of the parties and can be f u l l y investigated only with the cooperation of both parties. The reports which serve as data sources are not, therefore, s t r i c t l y speaking, reports of interstate violence, but rather reports of complaints and admissions of such behaviour. Only events i n d i v i d u a l l y reported were counted. Had aggregate data been available with any degree of consistency and i n manageable categories, they would have been included. However, when they were r e -ported, aggregations tended to cover odd and overlapping time periods of unequal length. In a l l , there are 323 separate events of domestic unrest i n the four countries over the seventeen years of the study, and 2493 separate interstate violence incidents. 41 Chapter VI Findings and Interpretation A) I s r a e l The values of the correlations between domestic unrest and interstate violence measures of Israel are recorded i n Tables I and I I . The most noteworthy aspect of these values i s t h e i r general and consis-tent weakness. In Table I the strongest correlation c o e f f i c i e n t i s equal to -.26.. Of the t h i r t y - s i x different correlations i n t h i s table, only twelve have an absolute value greater than .10. Table II reveals a si m i l a r picture f o r correlations based on a one-year temporal u n i t . Here the strongest corr e l a t i o n i s -.28. Nine of the twenty rho-values have an absolute value greater than . 1 0 , but only two greater than .20. In neither table i s there a rho-value s i g n i f i c a n t at the . 0 5 l e v e l . I t thus seems, clear that there i s a general independence between our measures of domestic unrest and interstate violence. There do not seem to be any grounds f o r a t t r i b u t i n g fluctuations over time i n one measure, to fluctuations i n the other. This lack of association i s i n l i n e with the findings of Wilken-f e l d and h i s colleagues, who were thus led to conclude that I s r a e l i foreign c o n f l i c t behavior may be formulated on the basis of the immediate si t u a t i o n .... 142 i n t h e i r relations with the Arab states. There seems to be no evidence of scapegoating or of a process l i k e that suggested by Blainey. Of course, there i s a p o s s i b i l i t y that the I s r a e l i e l i t e s respond to certain groups' unrest behaviour by scapegoating, but not to others 1. (The prob-lems i n discerning such selective responses are dealt with below.) Nor do the findings support the hypothesis that the l e v e l of 42 TABLE I Domestic Unrest and Interstate Violence of Isra e l : Correlations Based on a Six-Month Temporal Unit Interstate Violence Unrest Precedes Precedes Unrest Interstate Violence Time Lag: 24 18 12 6 0 6 12 18 24 Mo. Ui-Vi - . 0 1 -.11 - . 0 7 - . 0 8 -.22 -.22 o i l .15 .06 Ui-Vm .10 .03 . 0 9 - . 0 7 - . 0 4 .11 .17 .14 .19 Um-Vi .00 -.10 -.04 - . 0 9 - . 1 9 - . 2 6 .06 . 0 8 -.15 Um-Vm .09 -.01 .01 -.10 -.06 . 0 8 .14 .09 .04 N: 30 31 32 33 34 33 32 31 30 TABLE II Domestic Unrest and Interstate Violence of Israel: Correlations Based on a One-Year Temporal Unit Interstate Violence Unrest Precedes Precedes Unrest Interstate Violence Time Lag: 2 1 0 1 2 Years U i - V i -.08 - . 1 7 -.13 . 0 5 . 0 7 , Ui-Vm -.01 - . 0 6 - . 0 4 . 2 5 . 2 0 Um-Vi - . 2 8 - . 1 9 - . 2 0 - . 0 2 . 0 2 Um-Vm - . 0 6 - . 1 2 - . 0 6 . 0 8 .19 N: 15 16 17 16 15 N.B. Ui refers to incidence of unrest Urn refers to magnitude of unrest V i refers to incidence of violence Vm refers to magnitude of violence. Plus signs are not shown. 43 unrest i n I s r a e l i s affected by interstate violence. This does not necessarily mean that the c o n f l i c t has no impact on unrest behaviour i n I s r a e l . It may merely indicate that the impact i s d i f f e r e n t for d i f f e r -ent groups within the state. Such an analysis i s supported to some ex-tent by Peres* assertions and findings that while the peacefulness of r e -lations between Oriental and Western Jews may be attributed to the con-f l i c t with the Arab s t a t e s , s o may the exacerbation of relations be-tween I s r a e l i Arabs and J e w s 0 ^ ^ Looking at another source of unrest i n I s r a e l , the religious-secular c o n f l i c t , i t i s doubtful that the increased salience of the external threat would quel l agitation by r e l i g i o u s Jewish groups. The Heturei Karta sect, f o r example, does not recognize the state. It does not seem l i k e l y that members of the sect would cease agitation f o r s t r i c t adherence to. r e l i g i o u s law because the secular, i f not blasphemous, Zioni s t state i s being attacked. On the other hand, Jews who support p o l i t i c a l parties l i k e the Mafdal and Agudat Y i s r a e l seem to regard t h e i r agitation f o r r e l i g i o u s orthodoxy as necessary to 145 the strengthening of the state. J It would be interesting to test the d i f f e r e n t i a l and selective responses of e l i t e s and participants i n unrest to see i f there i s any s t a t i s t i c a l evidence to support the notion. Events of each type of behaviour are very small i n number, however. The v a r i a t i o n i n the i n -cidence and magnitude of each.type i s minimal. For example, r e l i g i o u s unrest provided the greatest number of cases when unrest behaviours were classed according to the source of c o n f l i c t (economic, ethnic, e t c . ) 0 There were only f i v e ranks f o r such unrest when one-year temporal units were used. Thus, correlations based on t h i s kind of action would not be 44 very meaningfulv In general, I s r a e l f i t s i n with the findings of Wilkenfeld and his colleagues that foreign and domestic c o n f l i c t are independent of each other. However, Wilkenfeld's findings f o r polyarchic states show a small to moderate association between the Turmoil and War measures. The great weakness of our rho-values indicates that Is r a e l i s not a t y p i c a l member of t h i s grouping. B) Syria-SAR Tables I I I and IV l i s t the values of the correlations f o r Syria, while Tables V and VI l i s t those.for the SAR. Comparison of the two sets of tables reveals that the correlation c o e f f i c i e n t s f o r the SAR are generally of higher value than those f o r Syr i a . Furthermore, the SAR set provides more s t a t i s t i c a l l y s i g n i f i c a n t rho-values. Thus, while the right hand columns of Table III boast no value greater than f .30, the corresponding columns of Table V show values ranging up to f.49\u00C2\u00BB For the one-year temporal unit correlations, the differences are more s t r i k i n g . No rho-value appears i n Table IV with an absolute value greater than .49* The absolute value of c o r r e l a -t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t s i n Table VI ranges as high as .79o Furthermore, while Table IV reveals no values s i g n i f i c a n t at the .05 l e v e l , Table VI shows f i v e such values. In general, therefore, the data f o r the SAR tend to show i n t e r -relationships between the variables more consistently and more c l e a r l y than do those for Syria. This difference i s c l e a r l y due to the inclusion of 1958-1961 data i n the Syrian set. From this we may conclude that p o l i -t i c a l processes were different i n t h i s period than during the periods of f 45. TABLE I I I Domestic Unrest and Interstate Violence of Syria: Correlations Based on a Six-Month Temporal Unit Interstate Violence Precedes Unrest Unrest Precedes Interstate Violence Time Lag: 24 18 12 6 0 6 12 18 24 Mo. Ui - V i -.26 -.31 -.05 .07 .00 .29 .29 .06 -.09 Ui-Vm -.39* -.33 -.25 -\u00E2\u0080\u00A2.07 -.31 -.15 -.02 .11 .24 Um-Vi -o34 -.31 -.06 .07 .02 .29 .30 .04 -.09 Um-Vm -.42* -.40* -.25 --.07 -.20 -.02 .12 .25 N: 30 31 32 33 34 33 32 31 30 TABLE IV Domestic Unrest and Interstate Violence of Syria: a One-Year Temporal Unit Correlations Based on Interstate Violence Precedes Unrest Unrest Precedes Interstate Violence Time Lag: . 2 1 0 1 2 Years U i - V i -.39 -.09 . .17 o39 -.11 Ui-Vm \" -.49 -.44 -.16 .13 .14 Um-Vi -.43 -.01 .14 .06 -.13 Um-Vm -.24 -.49 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 f l6 .10 .14 N: 15 16 17 16 15 N.B. *p p. 280. 70. Jonathan Wilkenfeld, \"Some Further Findings Regarding the Domestic and Foreign C o n f l i c t Behavior of Nations,\" Journal of Peace Research, VI (1969) 147. 71. Jonathan Wilkenfeld, \"Domestic and Foreign C o n f l i c t Beha-v i o r of Nations,\" Journal of Peace Research, V (1968) 57. 72. Ibid. 73. Jonathan Wilkenfeld and Dina A. Zinnes, \"A Linkage Model of Domestic C o n f l i c t Behavior,\" Con f l i c t Behavior and Linkage P o l i t i c s , op. c i t . , pp. 325-356. 74. Jonathan Wilkenfeld, V i r g i n i a Lee Lussier and Dale T a h t i -nen, \"Co n f l i c t Interactions i n the Middle East, 1949-1967,\" Journal of Con f l i c t Resolution, XVI, 2 (June, 1972) 135-154. 75-* Wilkenfeld, \"Some Further Findings,\" op. c i t . , p. 155.. 76. Tanter, \"Dimensions, 1958-1960,\" op. c i t . , pp. 55-56. 77. Wilkenfeld, Lussier and Tahtinen, op. c i t . , pp. 150-151. 78. P h i l l i p s , op. c i t . , p. 147. 79. C o l l i n s , op. c i t . , Table 3, p. 274. 80. Polyarchic states tend to be \"economically developed Wes-89 tern nations\" with liberal-democratic forms of government. See Jonathan Wilkenfeld, \"Domestic and Foreign C o n f l i c t , \" C o n f l i c t Behavior and Link- age P o l i t i c s , op. c i t . , Table 4 , p. 1 1 5 , p. 120. 81. Ibid, Table 4 , p. 115. 82. Ibid, Table 8, p. 121. 83. Wilkenfeld, Lussier and Tahtinen, op. c i t . , pp. 1 4 3 - 1 4 6 . 84. Yochanan Peres, \"Ethnic Relations i n I s r a e l , \" People and P o l i t i c s i n the Middle East, ed., Michael Curtis (New Brunswick, N.J.: Transaction Books, 1971) pp. 3 3 - 3 8 . 85. Ibid, pp. 5 3 - 6 0 . 86. Yehoshaphat Harkabi, \"Ending the Arab-Israeli C o n f l i c t , \" People and P o l i t i c s i n the Middle East, op. c i t . , p. 2 7 4 . 87. Arieh Loya, quoted i n Kennett Love, Suez; The Twice- Fought War (New York: McGraw-Hill, 1969) pp. 5.2-53. 8 8 . Nathan Weinstock, Le siortisme contre Is r a e l (Paris: Francois Maspero, I969) p. 3 4 1 . 89. Ibid, p. 366 . 9 0 . Lt-Gen. E.L.M. Burns, Between Arab and I s r a e l i (Toronto: Clarke, Irwin, 1962) p. 290. 9 1 . David Kimche and Dan Bawly, The Sandstorm (New York: Stein and Day, 1968) p. 7 0 . 92. Wilkenfeld, Lussier and Tahtinen, op. c i t . , p. 1 4 2 . 9 3 . Ibid, p. 1 3 7 . 9 4 . Robert Burrowes and Bertram Spector, \"The Strength and D i -re c t i o n of Relationships Between Domestic and External C o n f l i c t and Cooperation: Syria, I96I-I967,\" C o n f l i c t Behavior and Linkage P o l i t i c s , op. c i t . , Table 5> P\u00C2\u00AB 308. 9 5 . Ibid, pp. 312 -314. 96. See, for example, Edouard 'Saab, La Syrie ou l a revolution dans l a rancoeur ( J u l l i a r d , 1968) pp. 40 - 4 1 ; A. L. Tibawi, A Modern History of Syria (London: Macmillan and Company, 1969) pp. 382-383 ; Patrick Seale, The Struggle for Syria (London: Oxford University Press, 1965) PP. 3 3 - 3 4 , 41-45. 9 7 . Walter Laqueur, The Road to.War (Harmondsworth, Middlesex: Penguin Books Ltd., 1969) p. 5 8 . 9\u00C2\u00B0 98. Ibid, pp. 5 8 - 6 O . 99. Kimche and Bawly,. op. c i t . , pp. 2 1 - 2 4 . 1 0 0 . Wilkenfeld, Lussier and Tahtinen, op. c i t . , p. 1 4 8 . 101. The Centrist group consists of nations that \"exhibit both d i c t a t o r i a l and highly centralized patterns of leadership.\" Wilkenfeld, \"Domestic and Foreign C o n f l i c t , \" op. c i t . , p. 119. 1 0 2 . Ibid, Table 4 , p. 115. 103. Ibid, Table 7, p. 120. 1 0 4 . P . J o V a t i k i o t i s , P o l i t i c s and the M i l i t a r y i n Jordan (New York: Frederick A. Praeger, Publisher, 1967) p. 1 3 4 . 105. See, f o r example, George L. Harris, Jordan: i t s People, i t s Society, i t s Culture (New Haven: HRAF Press, 1958) p. 113; Aq.il Hyder Hasan Abidi, Jordan: A P o l i t i c a l Study (Bombay: Asia Publishing House, 1965) p. 170. 1 0 6 . Wilkenfeld, Lussier and Tahtinen, op. c i t . , pp. 146-147. 107. Wilkenfeld, \"Domestic and Foreign C o n f l i c t , \" op. c i t . , Table 4 , p. 115. 1 0 8 . Muhamad Husein Baikal, quoted i n P.J. V a t i k i o t i s , The Egyp- t i a n Army i n P o l i t i c s (Bloomington: Indiana University Press, 1961) p. 33; see also, Mahmoud Husein, La lutte de classes en Egypte (2e ed.; Paris: Francois Maspero, 1971) p. 76 . 109. See Tom L i t t l e , Modern Egypt (New York: Praeger, 1967) p. 107; V a t i k i o t i s , The Egyptian Army, op. c i t . , p. 65; Husein, op. c i t . , PP. 76-77. 110. R. Hrair Dekmejian, Egypt Under Nasser (Albany: State Uni-v e r s i t y of New York Press, 1971) PP. 39-44. \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 111. V a t i k i o t i s , The Egyptian Army, op. c i t . , pp. 32, 59; L i t t l e , op. c i t . , p. 103; Husein, l o c . c i t . 112. Tom L i t t l e i n Anthony Moncrieff, ed., Suez Ten Years After (London: BBC, 1967) p. 4 6 . 1 1 3 . A process i s a series of interlinked events which commences under certain defined conditions... and which concludes under certain defined conditions.... Alan R. Beals, Culture i n Process (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, 1967) P. 6. I t a l i c i z e d i n o r i g i n a l . 1 1 4 . W.D. Wall and H.L. Williams, Longitudinal Studies and the 91 Social Sciences (London: Heineman Educational Books, 1970) p. 7. 115. Robert Burrowes, \"Multiple Time-Series Analysis of Nation-Level Data,\" Comparative P o l i t i c a l Studies, I I , 4 (January, 1970) 468. 116. Norwood Russell Hanson, Patterns of Discovery (Cambridge: At the University Press, 1958) p. 54. 117. Donald G. Morrison and Hugh Michael Stevenson, \" P o l i t i c a l I n s t a b i l i t y i n Independent Black A f r i c a : More Dimensions of C o n f l i c t Behavior Y/ithin Nations,\" Journal of C o n f l i c t Resolution, XV, 3 (Septem-ber, 1971) 350-353, Table 1. 118. Ibid, p. 351. 119. E l i e z e r Beeri, Army Officers i n Arab P o l i t i c s and Society (Jerusalem: I s r a e l U n i v e r s i t i e s Press, 19\u00C2\u00B09) P. 255. 120. For a short discussion of measures of c i v i l s t r i f e see Raymond Tanter and Manus Midlarsky, \"A Theory of Revolution,\" Journal of C o n f l i c t Resolution, XI, 3 (September, I967) 266. 121. See Burrowes and Spector, op. c i t . , p. 304; Wilkenfeld, Lussier and Tahtinen, Table 3, p. 142. 122. Ivo K. Feierabend with Rosalind L. Feierabend and Betty A. Nesvold, \"The Comparative Study of Revolution and Violence,\" Comparative P o l i t i c s , V, 3 ( A p r i l , 1973).394-396. 123. P . 0 1 . 124. Y/ilkenfeld, Lussier and Tahtinen, op. c i t . , p. 136. 125. Malcolm Kerr, The Arab Cold War, 1958-1967 (2nd ed.; London: Oxford University Press, 1967) pp. 14-34. 126. See, f o r example, V a t i k i o t i s , P o l i t i c s and the M i l i t a r y i n Jordan, op. c i t . , p. 134. 127. See, for example, Laqueur, op. c i t . , pp. 58-6O. 128. Burrowes and Spector, op. c i t . , p. 297; Wilkenfeld, Lussier and Tahtinen, op. c i t . , p. 139* 129. See l i s t s i n Seale, op. c i t . , throughout the book. 130. Martin Seymour, \"The Dynamics of Power i n Syria since the Break with Egypt,\" Middle East Journal, VI, 1 (January, 1970) 37. 131. Johan Galtung, Theory and Methods of Social Research (Oslo: Universitetsforlaget, 1967) pp. 218-220. 92 132. Sidney Siegel, Nonparametric S t a t i s t i c s for the Beha- v i o r a l Sciences (Hew York: McGraw-Hill, 1956) p. 219. 133. Elmer B. Mode, Elements of S t a t i s t i c s (3rd ed.; Englewood C l i f f s , N.J.: Prentice-Hall, Inc., 1961) p. 311, Table 0. 134. George W# Snedecor and William G. Cochran, S t a t i s t i c a l Methods (6th ed.; Ames, Iowa: The Iowa State University Press, I967) p. 195, Table 7.11.12, and p. 557, Table A l l . Reasons for use of the l a t t e r given, i b i d , p. 194. 135. See Denton E. Morrison and Ramon A. Henkel, eds., The Significance Test Controversy (Chicago: Aldine Publishing Company, 1970). 136. David Gold, \" S t a t i s t i c a l Tests and Substantive Signifi** . cance,\" The Significance Test Controversy, op. c i t . , pp. 172-181. 137* James A. Davis, \"Some P i t f a l l s of Data Analysis Without a Formal C r i t e r i o n , \" The Significance Test Controversy, op. c i t . , p. 91 . 138. Gold, op. c i t . , p. 181. 139. Ibid, p. 179. 140. Edward E. Azar et a l . , \"The Problem of Source Coverage i n International Events,\" International Studies Quarterly, XVI, 3 (1972) 386-387. 141. Wilkenfeld, Lussier and Tahtinen, op. c i t . , p. 138. 142. Ibid, p. 151. 143. Peres, op. c i t . , pp. 33-38. 144. Ibid, pp. 53-60. 145. See, f o r example, the 1959 election plank of the Agudah quoted i n Brecher, The Foreign-Policy System of I s r a e l , op. c i t . , p. 180; also Menahem Porush's regular column i n the Jewish Press (New York). 146. For a discussion of related themes, see Louis M. T e r r e l l , \"Societal Stress, P o l i t i c a l I n s t a b i l i t y and Levels of M i l i t a r y E f f o r t , \" Journal of C o n f l i c t Resolution, XV, 3 (September, 1971) p. 3 0 . 147. Domestic violence involves coups, p o l i t i c a l arrests, press c o n f l i c t , p o l i t i c a l and economic suppression and administrative and execu-t i v e changes. Wilkenfeld, Lussier and Tahtinen, op. c i t . , p* 142, Table 3. 148. Verbal h o s t i l i t y involves nagative sanctions, accusations and shows of h o s t i l i t y . Ibid, p. 144, Table 5\u00C2\u00BB 93 , 149. M i l i t a r y actions involve antiforeign demonstrations, protests, m i l i t a r y actions and border skirmishes. Ibid. 150. See above, pp. 25-26. 151. Burrowes and Spector, op. c i t . , p. 315* 152. Wilkenfeld, Lussier and Tahtinen, op. c i t . , p. 149* 153. Brecher, The Foreign Policy System of I s r a e l , op. c i t . , P. 51. 154. Y i g a l Allon, \"Sof Ma'aseh b'Mahshavah Thilah,\" Milhamah v'Uitzahon, ed., Kaphtali Arbel (M. Mizrahi, 1967) p. 11. 155\u00E2\u0080\u00A2 Wilkenfeld, Lussier and Tahtinen, op. c i t . , pp. 146-147. 156. V a t i k i o t i s , P o l i t i c s and the M i l i t a r y i n Jordan, op. c i t . , p. 134. 157. Sherif et a l . , op. c i t . , pp. 123-124. 158. Wilkenfeld, Lussier and Tahtinen, op. c i t . , p. 148. 159. Wilkenfeld, \"Domestic and Foreign C o n f l i c t , \" op. c i t . , p. 120, Table 7. 160. Wilkenfeld, Lussier and Tahtinen, op. c i t . , p. 146. 161. Wilkenfeld, \"Domestic and Foreign C o n f l i c t , \" l o c . c i t . 162. V a t i k i o t i s , P o l i t i c s and the M i l i t a r y i n Jordan, l o c . c i t . 163. See note 111. 164. Paul Lazarsfeld, \"Interpretation of S t a t i s t i c a l Relations as a research Operation,\" The Language of Social Research, eds., Paul F. Lazarsfeld and Morris Rosenberg (Glencoe, 1 1 1 . : T h e Free Press, 1955) p. 122. 165. Wilkenfeld, Lussier and Tahtinen, l o c . c i t . 166. Wilkenfeld, \"Domestic and Foreign C o n f l i c t , \" op. c i t . , p. 115, Table A . 167. For an overview of such arguments see Benjamin Beit-Hal- . lahmi, \"Some Psychosocial and Cultural Factors i n the Arab-Israeli C o n f l i c t : A Review of the Literature,\" Journal of C o n f l i c t Resolution, XVI, 2 (June, 1972) 274-275. 168. Y/ilkenfeld, Lussier and Tahtinen, op. c i t . , p. 150. 169. Y. Harkabi, Arab Attitudes to Is r a e l , trans., Misha Louvish (Jerusalem: I s r a e l Universities Press, 1972) p. 3 2 5 . 170. Muhammad *Abd al-Qadir, c i t e d i b i d , p. 3 2 3 . 171. Ibid, pp. 1 2 - 1 3 . 172. Note that the reference i s to the abandonment of violence, not of non-violent h o s t i l e behaviour. 1 7 3 . See Le nouvel observateur, No. 455 (30 July, 1973) p. 1 9 . 174. See notes 153 and 1 5 4 . 175. Y/ilkenfeld, Lussier and Tahtinen, op. c i t . , p. 1 5 1 . 1 7 6 . James N. Rosenau, \"Toward the Study of National-Interna-t i o n a l Linkages,\" Linkage P o l i t i c s , op. c i t . , p. 4 6 . 177 . Thus i n C o n f l i c t Behavior and Linkage P o l i t i c s some of the authors mention the concept of linkages, some do not. 1 7 8 . Rosenau, \"Theorizing Across Systems,\" op. c i t . , p. 5 2 . 1 7 9 . Ibid, p. 4 5 . 1 8 0 . Jonathan Y/ilkenfeld, \"Introduction,\" C o n f l i c t Behavior'' and Linkage P o l i t i c s , op. c i t . , p. 1. 1 8 1 . V/ilkenfeld, \"Domestic and Foreign C o n f l i c t , \" op. c i t . , p. 1 2 2 . 1 8 2 . Cf. Gurr, op. c i t . , pp. 7 3 - 7 9 . 183. P h i l l i p M. Gregg and Arthur S. Banks, \"Dimensions of P o l i -t i c a l Systems: Factor Analysis of A Cross-Polity Survey,\" American P o l i - t i c a l Science Review, LIX, 3 (September, 1965) 6 0 7 . I t a l i c s i n o r i g i n a l . For variables loading highly on the factor see p. 608, Table I I . 184. Ibid, Table XIII, p. 6 1 3 . 1 8 5 . 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Wilkenfeld, Jonathan. \"Some Further Findings Regarding the Domestic and Foreign C o n f l i c t Behavior of Nations.\" Journal of Peace Research, VI (1969) 147-155. Wilkenfeld, Jonathan, V i r g i n i a Lee Lussier and Dale Tahtinen. \" C o n f l i c t Interactions i n the Middle East, 1949-1967.\" Journal of Con- f l i c t Resolution, XVI, 2 (June, 1972) 135-154. Zinnes, Dina. \"The Requisites f o r International S t a b i l i t y : A Review.\" Journal of C o n f l i c t Resolution, VIII, 3 (September, 1964) 301-305. 102 Appendix A Domestic Unrest Behaviour i 1. Strikes are organized disruptions of the economy by groups v/ho refuse to work at th e i r regular employment i n order to protest governmental p o l i c i e s or authority. Strikes concerned sol e l y with the conditions of employment i n a s p e c i f i c firm are not coun-ted unless a l l strikes are i l l e g a l i n the state. 2. Demonstrations are non-violent gatherings, usually planned and orga-nized, to protest against governmental p o l i c i e s , personnel, or authority, or against competing non-governmental i n t r a s o c i e t a l groups. 3 . Riots are events involving (usually unplanned) short-lived but violent a c t i v i t y (including f i g h t i n g ) , i n which the generalized aims of the insurgents or the objects of th e i r aggression are not coherently specified or are very limited i n nature. They may or may not be directed against governmental policy or authority or against i n t r a s o c i e t a l groups., or have such protest as th e i r excuse. When demonstrations are counteracted' by violence on the part of others (notably police) they (are considered to be) r i o t s . 4. T e r r o r i s t attacks are events involving r e l a t i v e l y highly organized and planned a c t i v i -ty on the part of small ... groups i n which the (aim of the) a c t i v i t y i s to damage, injure or eliminate government (or com-peting i n t r a s o c i e t a l group) property or personnel. These a c t i -v i t i e s include bomb plants, sabotage..., assassination (attemp-ted or successful) and isolated g u e r r i l l a a c t i v i t i e s . 5. Coups d'etat are attempted or successful displacements of the e x i s t -ing p o l i t i c a l leadership personnel by the action of a r e l a t i v e l y small, e l i t e group without any overt mass p a r t i c i p a t i o n i n the event. 103 6\u00C2\u00AB Mutiny involves the re f u s a l of national security forces, or a por-t i o n thereof, to obey the orders of the p o l i t i c a l authorities or superior o f f i c e r s . The aims of the action are usually limited to r e -v i s i o n of the conditions of service. 7. Rebellion i s a viol e n t event i n which some major, self-conscious segment of the population organizes i t s e l f and physically assaults the government, t h e i r i n s t a l l a t i o n s or forces, i n order to gain r e v i s i o n of s p e c i f i c p o l i c i e s related to t h e i r group or, more generally \"increased autonomy from the national p o l i t i c a l authority.\" 8. Revolt i s an event i n which coordinated attacks against government pro-perty and personnel are carried out by groups who are more rea d i l y i d e n t i f i a b l e by membership i n a mass p o l i t i c a l movement, and whose aim i s to overthrow the existing government. 9 . C i v i l war i s an a l l out war between two or more major segments of the popu-l a t i o n . Each segment has i t s own government.... One of the groups may claim independence from the other, or both may claim sovereignty over the whole state. \"The entire nation becomes i n -volved.\" Note: A l l quotations are from Morrison and Stevenson, op. c i t . , pp. 3 5 0 -3 5 3 , Table 1. 104 Appendix B Interstate Violence Behaviour 1. M i l i t a r y action involves (a) the penetration into another state's t e r r i t o r y , airspace, t e r r i t o r i a l waters or into demilitarized border zones, of a state's m i l i t a r y personnel, m i l i t a r y a i r c r a f t and naval vessels; (b) naval or a i r clashes on or over the high seas; (c) f i r i n g or s h e l l i n g across borders and armistice demarcation l i n e s . 2. C i v i l i a n penetration r e s u l t i n g i n violence. This involves the penetration of non-military personnel, a i r c r a f t and shipping into the t e r r i t o r y , airspace or t e r r i t o r i a l waters of a state, during which . armed force i s used i n an encounter with the inhabitants of the penetrated state. 3. Wars are m i l i t a r y actions on a very large scale, usually involving most of the armed forces personnel of the combattants. Appendix C Data Upon Which Calculations Are Based Domestic Unrest i n I s r a e l Yr.Mo .Day Event Casualties Duration T e r r i t o r i a l 5.0.01.22 Demo. 0 12 1 5 0 . 0 1 Demo. 0 1 1 5 0 . 0 1 . 2 9 Riot 5 1 1 5 0 . 0 2 . 1 4 Riot 21 1 1 5 0 . 0 2 . 1 9 Riot 0 1 1 5 0 . 0 2 . 2 2 Riot 0 1 1 5 0 . 0 3 . 2 6 Demo. 0 1 1 5 0 . 0 3 . 2 8 Demo. 0 1 1 5 0 . 0 5 . 0 1 Riot 0 1 1 50.07.23 Demo. 0 1 1 5 0 . 0 8 . 0 1 Strike 0 14 10 5 1 . 0 1 . 2 3 Riot 0 1 1 5 1 . 0 2 . 0 2 Demo. 4 1 3 5 1 . 0 5 . 0 1 Riot 0 1 1 5 1 . 0 7 . 2 9 Riot 10 1 1 5 1 . 0 8 . 2 8 . Demo. 0 1 1 5 1 . 1 1 . 1 2 Demo. 0 1 2 51.11 .23 Demo. 0 1 1 51.12.14 Riot 42 1 1 5 1 . 1 2 . 1 7 Demo. 0 1 1 5 1 . 1 2 . 2 5 Demo. 0 1 1 5 2 . 0 1 . 0 7 Riot 350 1 1 5 2 . 0 1 . 0 8 Demo. 0 l 1 5 2 . 0 3 . 2 1 Demo. 0 1 1 5 2 . 0 3 . 2 2 Demo. 0 1 1 5 2 . 0 3 . 2 5 Demo. 0 1 1 5 2 . 0 3 . 2 5 Demo. 0 4 1 5 2 . 0 4 . 1 5 Riot 11 1 1 5 2 . 0 4 . 2 5 Demo. 0 1 1 5 2 . 0 5 . 0 1 Riot 0 1 1 5 2 . 0 6 . 0 2 Strike 0 3 10 5 2 . 0 6 . 0 4 Demo. 0 1 1 5 2 . 0 6 . 2 3 Terror. 0' 0 1 5 2 , 0 6 . 2 9 Strike 0 1 10 5 2 . 0 8 Riot 0 2 1 5 2 . 0 9 . 0 1 Demo. 0 1 1 5 2 . 1 0 . 0 5 Terror. 0 0 1 52.IO.27- Demo. 0 1 5 5 2 . 1 2 . 0 3 Terror. - 0 0 2 53.01.13 Demo. 0 1 1 5 3 . 0 1 . 3 0 Terror. 0 0 1 Yr.Mo.Day Event Casualties Duration T e r r i t o r i a l 53.02.09 Terror. 3 0 1 53.02.12 Riot 0 1 1 53.05.15 Demo. 0 1 2 53.05.15 Riot 0 1 1 53.05.27 Terror. 0 0 1 53.07.14 Demo. 0 1 1 53.07.22 Demo. 0 1 1 53.09.07 Terror. 0 0 1 54.06.18 Riot 0 1 1 55.02.07 Riot 0 1 1 55.07 Terror. 2 0 1 55.07.17 Terror. 0 0 3 56.01.27 Riot 0 1 1 56.04.29 Riot 28 1 1 56.05.06 Demo. 0 1 1 56.06 Riot 0 1 1 56.09.01 Riot 8 1 1 56.09.09 Demo. 0 1 1 56.11.18 Riot 75 1 1 57.03.03 Terror. 1 0 1 57.04.02 Demo. 0 1 1 57.10.29 Riot 0 1 1 57.10.29 Terror. 5 0 1 58.04.09 Demo. 0 1 1 58.05.Ol Riot 80 1 1 58.05.03 Riot 0 1 1 58.08.04 Riot 0 1 1 58.08.25 Strike 0 1 10 58.08.25 Riot 0 1 1 59.03.18 Demo. 0 1 1 59.03.23 Riot 0 1 2 59.07.08 Riot 0 1 1 59.07.09 Riot 0 1 1 59.07.31 Riot 0 1 1 61.02.04 Riot 0 1 1 61.02.14 Demo. 0 1 1 61.07.12 Riot 0 1 1 6 l . 0 7 . l 6 Riot 2 1 1 61.09.21 Demo. 0 2 2 61.09.23 Riot 2 1 1 62.02.14 Demo. 0 1 1 62.03.04 Demo. 0 1 1 1 0 7 Yr.Mo.Day Event Casualties Duration T e r r i t o r i a l Extent 63.02.20 Demo. 0 1 1 6 3 . 0 5 . 2 5 Demo. 0 1 2 63.06.01 Riot 0 1 1 6 3 . 0 7 . 1 5 Riot 0 1 ' 1 6 3 . 0 7 . 2 2 Riot 2 1 1 6 3 . 0 7 . 2 7 Riot 0 1 1 63.09.10 Riot 0 1 2 63.09.14 Riot 0 1 1 63.10.03 Riot 0 1 1 63.10.13 Demo. 0 1 1 63.10.26 Riot 3 1 1 6 3 . 0 9 . 0 5 Demo. 0 1 1 64.08.17 Strike 0 2 10 64.11.14 Riot 0 1 1 64.12.17 Demo. 0 1 1 65 .O5.O6 Riot 0 1 1 6 5 . O 8 . O 8 Demo. 0 1 1 65.08.13 Demo. 0 1 1 6 5 . O 8 . i 7 Demo. 0 2 1 6 5 . O 8 . l 8 Demo. 0 1 1 6 5 . O 8 . i 9 Riot 0 1 1 65.08.22 Riot 0 1 1 6 5.lO . l 6 Riot 0 1 1 65.IO Riot 0 1 1 65.11.27 Demo. 0 1 1 Domestic Unrest i n Syria Yr.Mo.Day Event Casualties Duration T e r r i t o r i a l Extent 50.01.14 Riot 40 1 1 50.03.14 Strike 0 1 1 5 0 . 0 5 . 2 9 Terror. 0 0 1 50.06.21 Riot 13 1 1 5 0 . 0 6 . 2 7 Terror. 0 0 1 5 0 . 0 7 Terror. 1 0 1 50.10.13 Terror. 2 0 1 50.12 .22 Riot 31 1 1 50.12.12 Demo. 0 1 1 51.07.20 Riot 0 1 1 51.08 .05 Demo. 0 1 1 51.10 .06 Demo. 0 1 1 51.11.07 Demo. 0 1 1 51.11 Demo. 0 1 1 51.11 .29 Coup, 0 0 1 52.01.26 Riot 27 1 1 52.02 .15 Riot 0 1 2 52.02 Strike 0 3 3 Yr.Mo.Day Event Casualties Duration T e r r i t o r i a l Extent 5 2 . 0 3 . 2 9 Terror. 1 0 1 5 2 . 1 2 . 0 3 Terror. 0 0 1 5 3 . 0 7 . 1 0 Terror. 0 0 1 5 4 . 0 1 . 2 8 Riot 0 1 4 5 4 . 0 1 . 2 7 Revolt 0 9 2 5 4 . 0 1 . 2 9 Strike 0 1 10 5 4 . 0 2 . 2 5 Coup 0 0 10 5 4 . 0 2 . 2 6 Riot 108 2 1 5 4 . 0 4 . 0 1 Riot 1 2 1 5 4 . 0 6 . 1 1 Riot 0 1 1 5 4 . 0 7 Demo. 0 1 1 5 4 . 0 7 . 1 5 Strike 0 1 10 5 4 . 0 7 . 1 8 Demo. 0 1 1 5 4 . 0 8 Riot 1 1 1 5 4 . 0 8 . 1 3 Riot 0 1 1 5 4 . 0 9 . 1 5 Riot 25 1 1 5 4 . 0 9 . 2 7 Riot 29 1 1 5 4 . 1 0 . 0 1 Riot 18 1 1 5 5 . 0 1 . 1 3 Riot 0 1 1 55.01.16 Riot 0 1 1 5 5 . 0 2 . 2 7 Riot 10 1 1 55.03.06 Riot 34 1 1 5 5 . 0 3 . 2 7 Demo. 0 1 1 5 5 . 0 4 Riot 4 1 2 5 5 . 0 4 . 1 7 Riot 7 1 1 5 5 . 0 4 . 2 2 Terror. 1 0 1 5 5 . 0 4 . 2 2 Riot 0 1 1 5 5 . 0 4 . 2 5 Demo. 0 1 1 5 5 . 0 4 . 2 7 Strike 0 1 10 5 5 . 0 7 . 0 9 Demo. 0 1 1 5 5 . 0 8 . 2 5 Terror. 1 0 1 5 6 . 0 2 . 0 8 Riot 22 1 1 5 6 . 0 2 . 1 2 Riot 5 1 1 5 6 . 0 4 . 0 8 Riot 38 1 1 5 6 . 0 6 . 0 1 Demo. 0 1 1 5 6 . 1 0 Riot 0 1 1 5 6 . 1 0 Strike 0 1 1 5 7 . 0 2 . 0 3 Terror. 0 0 1 5 7 . 0 2 . 0 8 Riot 0 1 1 57.05.O6 Riot 8 1 2 5 7 . 0 9 . Terror. 0 0 2 5 9 . 0 1 . 0 2 Riot 0 3 1 5 9 . 0 1 . 0 3 Riot 0 1 1 6 l . 0 9 . 2 8 Coup 0 0 1 Yr.Mo.Day Event Casualties Duration T e r r i t o r i a l 61.10.01 Demo. 0 1 1 62.03.28 Coup 0 0 1 62.03.'31-.. ' Riot' 5 1 3 62.03.31 Demo. 0 3 4 62.04.01 Revolt 0 3 2 62.04.02 Riot 0 1 1 62.07.07 Riot 31 1 1 62.07.07 Strike 0 6 2 62.07.09 Riot 0 1 1 62.07.13 Terror. 0 0 1 62.07.13 Terror. 0 0 3 62.07.16 Terror. 0 0 3 62.07.23 Terror. 2 0 3 62.08.13 Riot 5 1 1 62.09.08 Terror. 25 0 1 62.10.02 Demo. 0 1 1 62.11.20 Riot 4 1 1 62.11.21 Demo. 0 1 1 63.01.09 Demo. 0 1 1 63.01.12 Riot 11 2 1 63.01.13 Riot 13 1 1 63.01.14 Riot 0 1 1 63.01.27 Riot 25 1 1 63.02.02 Riot 7 1 1 63.03.08 Coup 0 0 1 63.03.10 Riot 4 1 1 63.03.13 Demo. 0 1 2 63.03.31 Riot 0 2 4 63.04.15 Terror. 1 0 1 63.05.08 Riot 50 1 2 63.05.09 Riot 0 1 1 63.05.09 Riot 0 1 1 63.07.18 Coup 170 0 1 63.07.24 Terror. 0 0 1 64.02.08 Riot 0 1 1 64.02.22 Riot 0 1 1 64.04.15 Revolt 70 2 1 64.04.20 Demo. 0 1 1 64.04.20 Riot 1 1 1 64.03.08 Revolt 0 1 1 65.01.23 Riot 2 1 1 65.01.24 Strike 0 3 1 65.Ol.27 Riot 0 1 1 65.03.24 Revolt 34 1 1 65.12.30 Coup 0 0 1 66.02.23 Coup 146 0 1 110 Yr.Mo.Day Event Casualties Duration T e r r i t o r i a l Extent 6 6 . 0 9 . 0 8 Coup 0 0 1 Domestic Unrest i n Jordan Yr.Mo.Day Event Casualties Duration T e r r i t o r i a l Extent 5 0 . 0 4 . 0 4 Riot 3 1 1 5 0 . 0 6 . 0 2 Riot 0 1 1 5 0 . 1 1 . 2 9 Demo. 0 1 1 5 1 . 0 7 . 2 0 Terror. 2 0 1 51.11 .16 Demo. 0 1 1 52 .11 . 16 Riot 0 2 4 53 . 0 8 . 2 4 Demo. 0 1 1 53.10.17 Demo. 0 7 4 53.10.23 Riot 0 1 1 54.06.13 Demo. 0 1 1 54.10.17 Riot 143 2 4 54.10.17 Strike 0 7 10 5 4 . 1 0 . 2 1 Strike 0 1 1 55 .11 .04 Riot 1 1 1 55.11.04 Demo. 0 1 4 55.12.16 Riot 68 4 6 5 5 . 1 2 . 2 0 Strike 0 1 1 55 . 12 .20 Strike 0 3 1 55 . 12.22 Demo. 0 1 1 5 6 . 0 1 . 0 7 Riot 50 1 7 56 .01 .07 Strike 0 1 7 5 6 . 0 1 . 1 2 Riot 0 1 1 56 .04.22 Riot 33 1 4 56 .12.17 Strike 0 1 10 5 7 o 0 4 . l l Demo. 0 1 1 57.04.13 Coup 13 1 1 57.04.14 Riot 0 1 1 57.04.14 Demo. 0 1 1 5 7 . 0 4 . 1 6 Demo. 0 1 1 57 .04.16 Riot 0 1 1 57 .04.22 Demo. 0 2 4 5 7 . 0 4 . 2 4 Riot 0 1 1 57 . 0 4 . 2 4 Strike 0 1 10 57 . 0 9 . 0 9 Terror. 0 0 1 57.09 Terror. 0 0 1 5 8 . 0 8 . 0 2 Terror. 0 0 2 6 O . 0 8 . 2 9 Terror. 60 0 2 I l l Yr.Mo.Day Event Casualties Duration Ti 63.01.12 Strike 0 1 1 63.04.16 Riot 1 2 3 63.04.20 Riot 12 4 3 66.05.02 Terror. 1 0 1 66.11.15 Riot 0 1 1 66.11.19 Riot 0 1 1 66.11.20 Riot 0 1 1 66.11.21 Riot 0 1 1 66.11.23 Riot 0 1 1 66.11.24 Riot 0 1 1 66.11.25 Strike 0 1 5 66.11.25 Riot 42 1 6 66.11.29 Strike 0 1 1 66.11.29 Demo. 0 1 4 66.11.29 Riot 2 1 1 66.12.05 Riot 0 1 2 66.11.18 Demo-. 0 1 6 66.12.30 Terror. 0 0 4 Domestic Unrest i n Egypt e r r i t o r i a l Extent Yr.Mo.Day \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 Event Casualties Duration T e r r i t o r i a l 50.01.11 Riot 4 1 1 50.11.16 Riot 0 2 1 50.11.27 Riot 10 1 2 50.11.29 Riot 50 1 1 50.11.30 Demo. 0 1 1 51.01.13 Demo. 0 1 1 51.02.18 Demo. 0 1 1 51.07.30 Demo. 0 1 1 51.08.05 Strike 0 1 1 51.08.27 Riot 0 1 1 51.10.11 Riot 0 1 1 51.10.12 Riot 0 1 1 51.10.18 Demo. 0 1 2 51.10.23 Riot 5 1 1 51.10.23 Riot 40 1 1 51.11.12 Demo. 0 1 1 51.12.04 Riot 28 1 2 51.12.05 Riot 36 1 2 51.12.05 Terror. 1 0 1 51.12.26 Riot 0 1 1 51.12.26 Demo. 0 1 1 51.12.27 Riot 30 1 1 51.12.27 Demo. 0 1 1 51.12.27 Riot 26 1 1 51.12.27 Demo. 0 1 1 51.12.30 Demo. 0 1 3 51.12.31 Demo. 0 1 5 112 Yr.Mo.Day Event Casualties Duration T e r r i t o r i a l 52.01.06 Demo. 0 1 1 5 2 . 0 1 . 0 4 Riot 4 2 2 5 2 . 0 1 . 1 5 Riot 0 1 1 5 2 . 0 1 . 2 0 Riot 2 1 1 5 2 . 0 1 . 2 6 Riot 113 1 1 5 2 . 0 7 . 2 4 Coup 0 1 1 5 2 . 0 8 . 1 1 Strike 0 2 1 5 2 . 0 8 . 1 3 Riot 204 1 1 5 2 . 0 8 . 1 3 Riot 6 1 1 5 2 . 0 9 Terror. 0 0 1 52.11.16 Riot 0 1 1 5 4 . 0 1 . 1 2 Riot 0 1 1 5 4 . 0 2 . 0 7 Coup 0 1 1 5 4 . 0 2 . 2 8 Demo. 0 1 1 5 4 . 0 2 . 2 8 Riot 13 1 1 5 4 . 0 3 . 1 4 Demo. 0 1 1 5 4 . 0 3 . 1 7 Demo. 0 1 1 5 4 . 0 3 . 1 3 Demo. 0 7 1 5 4 . 0 3 . 2 1 Terror. 0 1 5 5 4 . 0 3 . 2 5 Demo. 0 1 1 5 4 . 0 3 . 2 7 Strike 0 3 1 5 4 . 0 3 . 2 5 Demo. 0 4 1 5 4 . 0 3 . 2 9 Riot 2 1 1 5 4 . 0 3 . 3 0 Demo. 0 3 1 5 4 . 0 4 . 0 3 Riot 0 1 1 5 4 . 0 4 . 0 3 Demo. 0 1 1 5 4 . 0 4 . 0 5 Demo. 0 1 1 5 4 . 0 4 . 0 7 Riot 0 1 1 5 4 . 0 4 . 0 7 Demo. 0 1 1 54.08 .27 Riot 30 1 1 5 4 . 0 9 . 1 0 Riot 5 1 1 5 4 . 1 0 . 2 6 Terror. 0 0 1 5 4 . 1 0 . 2 7 Riot 0 1 1 54.11 .15 Riot 0 1 1 5 5 . 0 3 . 0 2 Demo. 0 1 1 5 5 . 0 3 . 0 3 Riot 7 1 1 5 6 . 0 4 . 0 7 Demo. 0 1 1 5 6 . 0 5 Strike 0 1 1 5 6 . 0 5 Strike 0 1 1 5 7 . 0 2 . 2 6 Mutiny 7 1 1 5 7 . 0 5 . 2 6 Riot 17 1 1 5 7 . 0 7 . 0 3 Riot 16 1 1 5 7 . 0 7 . 1 4 Riot 17 1 1 65.O8.29 Riot 0 1 1 113 Interstate Violence Figures: Six-Month Temporal Unit Isr a e l Jordan Syria Egypt Period V i Vm V i Vm V i Vm V i Vm 1950a 21 22 12 14 5 0 4 \u00E2\u0080\u00A28 1950b 35 71 20 32 4 2 \u00E2\u0080\u00A2 8 25 1951a 54 80 25, 55 25 23 4 2 1951b 17 22 10 18 2 4 105 368 1952a 24 56 15 51 4 1 50 224 1952b 18 22 12 20 2 0 4 2 1953a 72 125 60 115 i 0 15 14 1953b 73 202 54 113 6 0 23 102 1954a 143 212 87 168 11 19 64 45 1954b 143 108 70 66 9 3 58 38 1955a 319 265 73 47 47 3 98 215 1955b 333 416 39 21 48 110 142 283 1956a 318 344 68 42 23 12 221 278 1956b 133 3593 81 319 12 8 60 7380 1957a 143 139 52 40 37 53 53 68 1957b 81 54 32 21 46 33 12 13 1953a . 64 49 23 24 48 27 6 5 1958b 37 19 15 4 26 10 7 6 1959a 46 32 9 14 28 29 19 15. 1959b 27 ~ 12 8 4 16 10 9 5 1960a 27 24 2 0 25 24 0 0 1960b 13 6 3 2 13 4 0 0 196la 24 11 2 6 24 7 0 0 1961b 10 5 6 5 10 10 0 0 1962a 33 16 7 8 27 8 0 0 1962b 35 9 1 5 33 4 1 Y 1963a 76 10 3 3 73 1 3 6-Y 1963b 41 23 8 11 30 6 5 9-Y 1964a 35 18 11 10 22 3 3 5-Y 1964b 91 79 9 11 77 58 5 7-Y 1965a 45 54 18 34 20 13 9 10-Y 1965b 39 51 32 40 3 10 1 Y 1966a 41 86 18 72 18 \" 12 1 Y 1966b 47 146 17 97 28 48 4 1-Y \"Y\" refers to the number of casualties suffered and i n f l i c t e d by Egyptian troops i n the Yemen. It i s impossible to f i n d finy figures for t h i s war. There i s one Jerusalem Post report, however, which c i t e s figures presen-ted to a closed session of the National Assembly i n 1965. Total Egyptian casualties up to that time were given as 1607. (Jerusalem Post, March 1965) "@en . "Thesis/Dissertation"@en . "10.14288/1.0101421"@en . "eng"@en . "Political Science"@en . "Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library"@en . "University of British Columbia"@en . "For non-commercial purposes only, such as research, private study and education. Additional conditions apply, see Terms of Use https://open.library.ubc.ca/terms_of_use."@en . "Graduate"@en . "Domestic unrest and interstate violence : four Middle Eastern states"@en . "Text"@en . "http://hdl.handle.net/2429/32901"@en .