Integrated management plan of water distribution systems : forecasting approach
department or school: Applied Science, Faculty of
department or school: Engineering, School of (Okanagan)
data provider: DSpace
degree campus: UBCO
creator: Peyman, Yousefi
issued: 2020-01-08T19:27:55Z
issued: 2020
related degree: Doctor of Philosophy - PhD
degree grantor: University of British Columbia
description: Having an integrated plan for the water distribution system (WDS) is a precondition to guarantee the safety of supply. Therefore, the development of such a plan can support the needs of WDS. Both integrated plans require highly accurate estimated values since they should not only cover failures in the system but also meet customersâ demand. Relevant literature lists many mathematical and empirical models for modeling water consumption in the recent decade. Most of the methods in literature are on low-resolution monthly scales because of the limitations in data availability. Besides, increasing the resolution of data would decrease the errors of forecasting models. This study suggested techniques to model high resolution temporal scale and improvement of the models. To analyses the nature of data, average mutual information, phase space reconstruction (PSR), and correlation dimension; where all these methods provide identification of chaotic behavior. The results showed the existence of chaos in the data in different temporal scales with the value of 3.4. Then, non-linear local approximation method (NLA), artificial neural networks, genetic expression programming, and multiple linear regressions techniques are applied for short-term (daily) and mid-term (monthly) forecasting. NLA showed the best performance with the accuracy of 98% for the test period among all models. Then, the highly accurate model of each techniques, were selected to be combined with PSR and wavelet decomposition pre-processing to improve the accuracy of the models. The results presented 1.2% improvement by PSR techniques. For transition of different resolution, this study employed the continuous random cascade method to transfer the resolution. Random Cascade gave the daily value out of monthly scale by 90% accuracy. Finally, using expected consumption values resulted by forecasting models, an approach to make the leakage detection procedure resource-efficient is to estimate the timeline of leaka…
aggregated CHO: https://circle.library.ubc.ca/rest/handle/2429/73228
note: INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT PLAN OF WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS: FORECASTING APPROACH by Peyman Yousefi B.Sc., Islamic Azad University, 2009 M.Sc., University of Tabriz, 2011 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in THE COLLAGE OF GRADUATES STUDIES (Civil Engineering) THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA (Okanagan) January 2020 © Peyman Yousefi, 2020 ii The following individuals certify that they have read, and recommend to the Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies for acceptance, the dissertation entitled: INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT PLAN OF WATER DISTRIBUTION SYSTEMS: FORECASTING APPROACH submitted by Peyman Yousefi in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Civil Engineering Examining Committee: Dr. Hadi Mohammadi, School of Engineering, UBC (Okanagan) Supervisor Dr. Gholamreza Naser, School of Engineering, Shippensburg University of Pennsylvania Co-supervisor Dr. Zheng Liu, School of Engineering, UBC (Okanagan) Supervisory Committee Member Dr. Sumi Siddiqua, School of Engineering, UBC (Okanagan) Supervisory Committee Member Dr. Jian Liu, School of Engineering, UBC (Okanagan) University Examiner Dr. Mohammad Reza Najafi, Department of Civil Engineering, Western University External Examiner iii Abstract Having an integrated plan for the water distribution system (WDS) is a precondition to guarantee the safety of supply. Therefore, the development of such a plan can support the needs of WDS. Both integrated plans require highly accurate estimated values since they should not only cover failures in the system but also meet customersâ demand. Relevant literature lists many mathematical and empirical models for modeling water consumption in the recent decade. Most of the methods in literature are on low-resolution monthly scales because of the limitations in data availability. Besides, increasing the resolution of data would decrease the errors of forecasting models. This…
has type: Thesis/Dissertation
date issued: 2020-02
is shown at: 10.14288/1.0388213
language: eng
degree discipline: Civil Engineering
provider: Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library
publisher: University of British Columbia
rights: Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International
rights URI: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/
scholar level: Graduate
type: Text
identifier URI: http://hdl.handle.net/2429/73228