{"Affiliation":[{"label":"Affiliation","value":"Business, Sauder School of","attrs":{"lang":"en","ns":"http:\/\/vivoweb.org\/ontology\/core#departmentOrSchool","classmap":"vivo:EducationalProcess","property":"vivo:departmentOrSchool"},"iri":"http:\/\/vivoweb.org\/ontology\/core#departmentOrSchool","explain":"VIVO-ISF Ontology V1.6 Property; The department or school name within institution; Not intended to be an institution name."}],"AggregatedSourceRepository":[{"label":"Aggregated Source Repository","value":"DSpace","attrs":{"lang":"en","ns":"http:\/\/www.europeana.eu\/schemas\/edm\/dataProvider","classmap":"ore:Aggregation","property":"edm:dataProvider"},"iri":"http:\/\/www.europeana.eu\/schemas\/edm\/dataProvider","explain":"A Europeana Data Model Property; The name or identifier of the organization who contributes data indirectly to an aggregation service (e.g. Europeana)"}],"Campus":[{"label":"Campus","value":"UBCV","attrs":{"lang":"en","ns":"https:\/\/open.library.ubc.ca\/terms#degreeCampus","classmap":"oc:ThesisDescription","property":"oc:degreeCampus"},"iri":"https:\/\/open.library.ubc.ca\/terms#degreeCampus","explain":"UBC Open Collections Metadata Components; Local Field; Identifies the name of the campus from which the graduate completed their degree."}],"Creator":[{"label":"Creator","value":"Miller, Richard Douglas","attrs":{"lang":"en","ns":"http:\/\/purl.org\/dc\/terms\/creator","classmap":"dpla:SourceResource","property":"dcterms:creator"},"iri":"http:\/\/purl.org\/dc\/terms\/creator","explain":"A Dublin Core Terms Property; An entity primarily responsible for making the resource.; Examples of a Contributor include a person, an organization, or a service."}],"DateAvailable":[{"label":"Date Available","value":"2010-03-29T19:27:31Z","attrs":{"lang":"en","ns":"http:\/\/purl.org\/dc\/terms\/issued","classmap":"edm:WebResource","property":"dcterms:issued"},"iri":"http:\/\/purl.org\/dc\/terms\/issued","explain":"A Dublin Core Terms Property; Date of formal issuance (e.g., publication) of the resource."}],"DateIssued":[{"label":"Date Issued","value":"1982","attrs":{"lang":"en","ns":"http:\/\/purl.org\/dc\/terms\/issued","classmap":"oc:SourceResource","property":"dcterms:issued"},"iri":"http:\/\/purl.org\/dc\/terms\/issued","explain":"A Dublin Core Terms Property; Date of formal issuance (e.g., publication) of the resource."}],"Degree":[{"label":"Degree (Theses)","value":"Master of Science in Business - MScB","attrs":{"lang":"en","ns":"http:\/\/vivoweb.org\/ontology\/core#relatedDegree","classmap":"vivo:ThesisDegree","property":"vivo:relatedDegree"},"iri":"http:\/\/vivoweb.org\/ontology\/core#relatedDegree","explain":"VIVO-ISF Ontology V1.6 Property; The thesis degree; Extended Property specified by UBC, as per https:\/\/wiki.duraspace.org\/display\/VIVO\/Ontology+Editor%27s+Guide"}],"DegreeGrantor":[{"label":"Degree Grantor","value":"University of British Columbia","attrs":{"lang":"en","ns":"https:\/\/open.library.ubc.ca\/terms#degreeGrantor","classmap":"oc:ThesisDescription","property":"oc:degreeGrantor"},"iri":"https:\/\/open.library.ubc.ca\/terms#degreeGrantor","explain":"UBC Open Collections Metadata Components; Local Field; Indicates the institution where thesis was granted."}],"Description":[{"label":"Description","value":"Much of the literature on the residential building industry pertains to studies that aggregate the national production\r\nof housing. Since land development, including housing, is restricted to a particular place, the author has attempted to model a local housing market and to estimate the relationship between the production of ground-oriented housing units in a specified market area and certain specified factors postulated to affect the supply and demand of the commodity.\r\nThe housing market model has been based on the assumption that the number of dwelling starts responds proportionally to the desired number of units under construction, the opening level of such an inventory, and the number of completions. With respect\r\nto the desired number of dwelling units under construction, particular attention has been made to the estimation of the potential\r\nprofitability of developing houses as well as the severity\r\nof credit conditions. An hypothesis was made of the effect of credit availability, or non-price credit terms, on housing starts; and, a model of the supply of new ground-oriented housing has been postulated with optional specifications for a credit conditions variable to identify the relationship with the important\r\ndetermining variables and to determine the effect of credit availability.\r\nThe model was tested with estimates for all the dependent and determining variables for the Ottawa-Hull Metropolitan Area. Specifications of the model have been applied to data covering the period from 1968 to 1977, and multiple regression techniques have been used to estimate the coefficients of the explanatory variables. The performance of the housing starts model, including\r\nthe use of the credit conditions variables, has been assessed on the basis of a number of measurements of the goodness of fit over the original ten year period as well as the following two year period (1978 and 1979).\r\nThe testing of the housing starts model appeared to confirm\r\nthe hypothesis that given a level of profitableness of developing land and the investment required per unit, developers would desire to maintain a certain number of units under construction.\r\nThe study was generally successful in showing the relationship between the number of housing starts, in a limited market area, and the major determining variables attributed to the local and national economic environment. The credit conditions\r\nvariables used appeared to successfully indicate the effect of the price and availability of credit, but there was little convincing evidence to support the hypothesis of the symmetric effect of credit availability in favour of a hypothesis of the asymmetric effect.","attrs":{"lang":"en","ns":"http:\/\/purl.org\/dc\/terms\/description","classmap":"dpla:SourceResource","property":"dcterms:description"},"iri":"http:\/\/purl.org\/dc\/terms\/description","explain":"A Dublin Core Terms Property; An account of the resource.; Description may include but is not limited to: an abstract, a table of contents, a graphical representation, or a free-text account of the resource."}],"DigitalResourceOriginalRecord":[{"label":"Digital Resource Original Record","value":"https:\/\/circle.library.ubc.ca\/rest\/handle\/2429\/22888?expand=metadata","attrs":{"lang":"en","ns":"http:\/\/www.europeana.eu\/schemas\/edm\/aggregatedCHO","classmap":"ore:Aggregation","property":"edm:aggregatedCHO"},"iri":"http:\/\/www.europeana.eu\/schemas\/edm\/aggregatedCHO","explain":"A Europeana Data Model Property; The identifier of the source object, e.g. the Mona Lisa itself. This could be a full linked open date URI or an internal identifier"}],"FullText":[{"label":"Full Text","value":"A HOUSING MARKET MODEL FOR THE METROPOLITAN AREA OF OTTAWA-HULL by RICHARD DOUGLAS MILLER B.E.S., The U n i v e r s i t y of Waterloo, 1971 A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENT FOR THE DEGREE OF MASTER OF SCIENCE (BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION) * i n THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE STUDIES (Commerce and Business Administration) We accept t h i s t h e s i s as conforming to the required standard THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA October 1932 \u00a9 Richard Douglas M i l l e r , 1982 AUTHORIZATION I n p r e s e n t i n g t h i s t h e s i s i n p a r t i a l f u l f i l m e n t o f t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r an a d v a n c e d d e g r e e a t t h e U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , I a g r e e t h a t t h e L i b r a r y s h a l l make i t f r e e l y a v a i l a b l e f o r r e f e r e n c e and s t u d y . I f u r t h e r a g r e e t h a t p e r m i s s i o n f o r e x t e n s i v e c o p y i n g o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r s c h o l a r l y p u r p o s e s may be g r a n t e d by t h e head o f my d e p a r t -ment o r by h i s o r h e r r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s . I t i s u n d e r s t o o d t h a t c o p y i n g o r p u b l i c a t i o n o f t h i s t h e s i s f o r f i n a n c i a l g a i n s h a l l n o t be a l l o w e d w i t h o u t my w r i t t e n p e r m i s s i o n . D e p a r t m e n t o f ec^^j Bt^-^j^ ' A^W-o^^Wfe,., The U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a 1956 M a i n M a l l V a n c o u v e r , Canada V6T 1Y3 Date i i ABSTRACT Much o f t h e l i t e r a t u r e on t h e r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g i n d u s t r y p e r t a i n s t o s t u d i e s t h a t a g g r e g a t e t h e n a t i o n a l p r o -d u c t i o n o f h o u s i n g . S i n c e l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t , i n c l u d i n g h o u s i n g , i s r e s t r i c t e d t o a p a r t i c u l a r p l a c e , t h e a u t h o r has a t t e m p t e d t o model a l o c a l h o u s i n g m a r k e t and t o e s t i m a t e t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g u n i t s i n a s p e c i f i e d m a r k e t a r e a and c e r t a i n s p e c i f i e d f a c t o r s p o s t u l a t e d t o a f f e c t t h e s u p p l y and demand o f t h e commodity. The h o u s i n g m a r k e t model has been b a s e d on t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e number o f d w e l l i n g s t a r t s r e s p o n d s p r o p o r t i o n a l l y t o t h e d e s i r e d number o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n , t h e o p e n i n g l e v e l o f s u c h an i n v e n t o r y , and t h e number o f c o m p l e t i o n s . W i t h r e -s p e c t t o t h e d e s i r e d number o f d w e l l i n g u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n , p a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n has b e e n made t o t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e po-t e n t i a l p r o f i t a b i l i t y o f d e v e l o p i n g h o u s e s as w e l l as t h e s e v e r -i t y o f c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s . An h y p o t h e s i s was made o f t h e e f f e c t o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y , o r n o n - p r i c e c r e d i t t e r m s , on h o u s i n g s t a r t s ; and, a model o f t h e s u p p l y o f new g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g has b een p o s t u l a t e d w i t h o p t i o n a l s p e c i f i c a t i o n s f o r a c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e t o i d e n t i f y t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h t h e i m p o r -t a n t d e t e r m i n i n g v a r i a b l e s and t o d e t e r m i n e t h e e f f e c t o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y . The model was t e s t e d w i t h e s t i m a t e s f o r a l l t h e d e p e n d e n t and d e t e r m i n i n g v a r i a b l e s f o r t h e O t t a w a - H u l l M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a . S p e c i f i c a t i o n s o f t h e model have been a p p l i e d t o d a t a c o v e r i n g t h e p e r i o d f r o m 1968 t o 1977, and m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e s have b e e n u s e d t o e s t i m a t e t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s o f t h e e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e s . The p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s m o d e l , i n c l u d -i n g t h e use o f t h e c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e s , has been a s s e s s e d on t h e b a s i s o f a number o f measurements o f t h e g o o d n e s s o f f i t o v e r t h e o r i g i n a l t e n y e a r p e r i o d as w e l l as t h e f o l l o w i n g two y e a r p e r i o d (1978 and 19 7 9 ) . The t e s t i n g o f t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s model a p p e a r e d t o c o n -f i r m t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t g i v e n a l e v e l o f p r o f i t a b l e n e s s o f d e v e l o p i n g l a n d and t h e i n v e s t m e n t r e q u i r e d p e r u n i t , d e v e l o p e r s w o u l d d e s i r e t o m a i n t a i n a c e r t a i n number o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n -s t r u c t i o n . The s t u d y was g e n e r a l l y s u c c e s s f u l i n showing t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e number o f h o u s i n g s t a r t s , i n a l i m i t e d m a r k e t a r e a , and t h e m a j o r d e t e r m i n i n g v a r i a b l e s a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e l o c a l and n a t i o n a l e c o n o m i c e n v i r o n m e n t . The c r e d i t c o n -d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e s u s e d a p p e a r e d t o s u c c e s s f u l l y i n d i c a t e t h e e f f e c t o f t h e p r i c e and a v a i l a b i l i t y o f c r e d i t , b u t t h e r e was l i t t l e c o n v i n c i n g e v i d e n c e t o s u p p o r t t h e h y p o t h e s i s o f t h e s y m m e t r i c e f f e c t o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y i n f a v o u r o f a h y p o t h e s i s o f t h e a s y m m e t r i c e f f e c t . ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS The a u t h o r i s i n d e b t e d t o P r o f e s s o r s , D e n n i s C a p o z z a , George Gau, P e t e r C h i n l o y , and i n p a r t i c u l a r L awrence J o n e s , f o r t h e i r h e l p f u l c r i t i c i s m s and e n c o u r a g e m e n t . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e s t a f f o f t h e Canada M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n , S t a t i s t i c s Canada, and t h e Bank o f Canada have been o f a s s i s t a n c e i n p r o v i d i n g t h e n e c e s s a r y d a t a and i d e n t i f y i n g v a r i o u s s t u d i e s o f i n t e r e s t . F i n a l l y , I t h a n k my w i f e , N a i r , f o r t h e e n d l e s s h o u r s o f p u n c h i n g computer c a r d s and h e l p i n g p r o o f r e a d t h e f i n i s h e d work. i v TABLE OF CONTENTS ABSTRACT i i i ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS i v L I S T OF TABLES v i i L I S T OF FIGURES v i i i C h a p t e r I . INTRODUCTION 1 I I . THE HOUSING-MORTGAGE MARKET THEORY 4 The H o u s i n g M a r k e t 4 The C o s t and A v a i l a b i l i t y o f C r e d i t 8 F o o t n o t e s 12 I I I . REVIEW OF PREVIOUS HOUSING MARKET MODELS 16 S e l e c t i o n C r i t e r i a 16 The M a i s e l M o d e l 16 The Huang M o d e l 18 The F a i r and J a f f e e M o d e l 19 The S m i t h M o d e l 22 The T r i n h M o d e l 24 Comments on P r e v i o u s M o d e l s 25 F o o t n o t e s 28 IV. METROPOLITAN AREA HOUSING MARKET MODEL . 29 O b j e c t i v e 29 B a s i c H o u s i n g S t a r t s M o d e l 29 A l t e r n a t i v e M o d e l 32 S u p p l e m e n t a r y M o d e l s 33 An O v e r v i e w o f t h e H o u s i n g M a r k e t M o d e l 37 E v a l u a t i o n o f t h e M o d e l s 39 F o o t n o t e s 41 V. SPECIFICATION OF MARKET AREA, VARIABLES, AND MODELS. 43 The M a r k e t A r e a and S t u d y P e r i o d 4 3 H i s t o r y o f L a n d A c q u i s i t i o n and D e v e l o p m e n t 43 M o d i f i e d P o t e n t i a l P r o f i t V a r i a b l e 48 C r e d i t C o n d i t i o n s V a r i a b l e 53 S p e c i f i c a t i o n o f M o d e l s f o r Endogenous and H o u s i n g S t a r t s V a r i a b l e s 55 F o o t n o t e s 59 v V I . ESTIMATING THE HOUSING MARKET MODEL ... 61 S u p p l e m e n t a r y M o d e l s ......... 61 H o u s i n g S t a r t s M o d e l s 82 C o n c l u s i o n 123 F o o t n o t e s . . . 126 BIBLIOGRAPHY 128 A p p e n d i x e s I . ESTIMATION OF THE DEPENDENT AND INDEPENDENT VARIABLES 133 I I . EXTENDING THE NEW HOUSE PRICE INDEX 166 I I I . AVERAGE LOT S I Z E , LOTS PER GROSS ACRE AND ROAD FRONTAGE PER LOT 16 8 IV. ESTIMATE OF SERVICING COSTS 174 V. COST OF RAW LAND 17 9 V I . PROPERTY TAXES 182 V I I . ESTIMATES OF PROPORTIONS OF CAPITAL FROM VARIOUS SOURCES 185 V I I I . ESTIMATES OF COMPLETIONS AND UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTION 18 8 IX. ESTIMATE OF THE QUANTITY OF EMPLOYMENT 19 2 X. DATA 19 9 v i L I S T OF TABLES 1. M a r k e t A r e a H o u s i n g S t a r t s 47 2. D i s t r i b u t i o n o f G r o u n d - O r i e n t e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s .... 47 A - l . New G r o u n d - O r i e n t e d H o u s i n g i n t h e O n t a r i o P o r t i o n o f t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a - 1971 136 A-2. E s t i m a t e s o f t h e S e r v i c i n g C o s t s P e r F r o n t F o o t ... 175 A-3. G r o u n d - O r i e n t e d H o u s i n g U n i t s i n t h e H o u s i n g M a r k e t A r e a 2 00 A-4. A n n u a l L a n d T a x e s , S e r v i c i n g C o s t s , D i s p o s a b l e Income, and L a b o u r F o r c e i n t h e M a r k e t A r e a 204 A-5. C o n s t r u c t i o n I n d u s t r y S t r i k e s , D i s p o s a b l e Income, and S e a s o n s i n t h e H o u s i n g M a r k e t A r e a 206 A-6. Employment S t a t i s t i c s i n t h e H o u s i n g M a r k e t A r e a .. 210 A-7. M o r t g a g e I n t e r e s t R a t e s , M o r t g a g e A p p r o v a l s , and P r i c e I n d e x 214 A-8. C r e d i t C o n d i t i o n s V a r i a b l e s 218 A-9. P r o p o r t i o n o f C a p i t a l From V a r i o u s S o u r c e s 222 A-10. Components o f t h e W e i g h t e d - A v e r a g e C o s t o f C a p i t a l 224 A - l l . Tax R a t e s 228 A-12. Components o f t h e P r o f i t V a r i a b l e 230 A-13. S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d and Row H o u s i n g C o s t s D u r i n g D e v e l o p m e n t 2 34 A-14. I n v e s t m e n t R e q u i r e d P e r U n i t I n d e x 238 v i i L I S T OF FIGURES F i g . 1. F l o w c h a r t o f t h e H o u s i n g M a r k e t M o d e l 38 F i g . 2. S t u d y A r e a 44 F i g . 3. M o d i f i e d P o t e n t i a l P r o f i t V a r i a b l e 55 F i g . 4. S e l l i n g P r i c e R e l a t i v e t o D e v e l o p m e n t C o s t s .... 56 F i g . 5. I n v e n t o r y o f U n o c c u p i e d New Houses 57 F i g . 6. P r o f i t M o t i v a t e d G r o u n d - O r i e n t e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s 58 F i g . 7. A n a l y s i s o f R e s i d u a l s : M o d i f i e d P o t e n t i a l P r o f i t V a r i a b l e 63 F i g . 8. A n a l y s i s o f R e s i d u a l s : House P r i c e s * R e l a t i v e t o C o s t s ( E s t i m a t e 1) 67 F i g . 9. A n a l y s i s o f R e s i d u a l s : House P r i c e s R e l a t i v e t o C o s t s ( E s t i m a t e 2) 71 F i g . 10. A n a l y s i s o f R e s i d u a l s : I n v e n t o r y o f U n o c c u p i e d New Houses ( E s t i m a t e 1) 76 F i g . 11. A n a l y s i s o f R e s i d u a l s : I n v e n t o r y o f U n o c c u p i e d New Houses ( E s t i m a t e 2) , 79 F i g . 12. A n a l y s i s o f R e s i d u a l s : P r o f i t M o t i v a t e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s ( E s t i m a t e 1) 85 F i g . 13. A n a l y s i s o f R e s i d u a l s : P r o f i t M o t i v a t e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s ( E s t i m a t e 2) 90 F i g . 14. A n a l y s i s o f R e s i d u a l s : P r o f i t M o t i v a t e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s ( E s t i m a t e 3) 95 F i g . 15. A n a l y s i s o f R e s i d u a l s : P r o f i t M o t i v a t e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s ( E s t i m a t e 4) 102 F i g . 16. A n a l y s i s o f R e s i d u a l s : P r o f i t M o t i v a t e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s ( E s t i m a t e 5) 107 F i g . 17. A n a l y s i s o f R e s i d u a l s : P r o f i t M o t i v a t e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s ( E s t i m a t e 6) 112 F i g . 18. A n a l y s i s o f R e s i d u a l s : P r o f i t M o t i v a t e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s ( E s t i m a t e 7) 117 v i i i CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION As a c o n s e q u e n c e o f t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f and c o n c e r n a b o u t t h e a b i l i t y o f t h e b u i l d i n g i n d u s t r y t o r e s p o n d t o i n c r e a s e s i n h o u s i n g demand, and t h e u n d e s i r a b l e c o n s e q u e n c e s o f i n s t a b i l i t y i n r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n f o r b o t h t h e b u i l d i n g i n d u s t r y and t h e consumer, a l a r g e number o f s t u d i e s o f t h e r e s i d e n t i a l c o n -s t r u c t i o n s e c t o r , o f t h e economy, have been u n d e r t a k e n . T h e s e s t u d i e s have s o u g h t t o d e m o n s t r a t e t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n c y c l e and t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f c r e d i t , t o d e t e r m i n e t h e s t o c k e l a s t i c i t i e s o f h o u s i n g demand w i t h r e s p e c t t o p r i c e and income, and t o e x p l a i n t h e volume o f r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t y and t h e o p e r a t i o n o f t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t as a w h o l e . I n t h i s s t u d y , t h e a u t h o r has a t t e m p t e d t o model a l o c a l h o u s i n g m a r k e t and t o e s t i m a t e t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e p r o -d u c t i o n o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g u n i t s i n a s p e c i f i e d m a r k e t a r e a and c e r t a i n s p e c i f i e d f a c t o r s p o s t u l a t e d t o a f f e c t t h e s u p p l y and demand o f t h e commodity. I n v i e w o f t h e v a r i o u s e c o n o m e t r i c p a r a d i g m s t h a t may be u s e d t o model t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t , two a p p r o a c h e s have been e v a l u a t e d , on t h e b a s i s o f a number o f c o m p a r a t i v e s t a t i s t i c a l measurements. The p a p e r f i r s t d i s c u s s e s t h e t h e o r y o f t h e h o u s i n g -m o r t g a g e m a r k e t and b r i e f l y r e v i e w s p r e v i o u s s t u d i e s p e r t a i n i n g t o h o u s i n g m a r k e t m o d e l s . An h y p o t h e s i s was made o f t h e e f f e c t 1 2 o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y , o r n o n - p r i c e c r e d i t t e r m s , on h o u s i n g s t a r t s ; and, a model o f t h e s u p p l y o f new g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g has been p o s t u l a t e d w i t h o p t i o n a l s p e c i f i c a t i o n s f o r a c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e t o i d e n t i f y t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p w i t h t h e i m p o r -t a n t d e t e r m i n i n g v a r i a b l e s and t o d e t e r m i n e t h e e f f e c t o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y . I n a d d i t i o n , t h r e e s u p p l e m e n t a r y m o d els were p r e -p a r e d t o e s t i m a t e t h e endogenous v a r i a b l e s ( o f t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s model) i n r e d u c e d form., E s t i m a t e s have been made o f a l l t h e d e p e n d e n t and d e t e r -m i n i n g v a r i a b l e s , w i t h p a r t i c u l a r a t t e n t i o n t o t h e p o t e n t i a l p r o f i t v a r i a b l e , f o r t h e O t t a w a - H u l l M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a . T h e r e -upon, s p e c i f i c a t i o n s o f a l l t h e m o d els have been a p p l i e d t o d a t a c o v e r i n g t h e p e r i o d f r o m 1968 t o 1977, and m u l t i p l e r e g r e s s i o n t e c h n i q u e s have been u s e d t o e s t i m a t e t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s o f t h e e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e s . F i n a l l y , t h e p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s m o d e l, and t h e u s e o f t h e v a r i o u s c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e s , has b een a s s e s s e d on t h e b a s i s o f a number o f m easure-ments o f t h e g o o d n e s s o f f i t o v e r t h e o r i g i n a l t e n y e a r p e r i o d as w e l l as o v e r t h e f o l l o w i n g two y e a r p e r i o d (1978 and 1 9 7 9 ) . 3 F o o t n o t e L a w r e n c e B. S m i t h , \"A B i - S e c t o r a l H o u s i n g M a r k e t M o d e l \" , The C a n a d i a n J o u r n a l o f E c o n o m i c s , No. 4 (November, 1 9 6 9 ) , P. 588. CHAPTER I I THE HOUSING-MORTGAGE MARKET THEORY The H o u s i n g M a r k e t H o u s i n g , an E c o n o m i c Commodity I n an economy where t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f a good i s b a s e d on t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e q u a n t i t y o f a good p e o p l e w o u l d buy and t h e q u a n t i t y w i l l i n g t o be s u p p l i e d , a t a g i v e n p r i c e , when a n a l y z i n g t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f a s p e c i f i c good, s u c h as h o u s i n g , one must c o n s i d e r t h e f a c t o r s t h a t g o v e r n t h e demand and s u p p l y o f t h e s p e c i f i c commodity. U n l i k e many c o m m o d i t i e s , t h e i m m o b i l i t y o f r e a l e s t a t e r e s u l t s i n t h e m a r k e t f o r r e a l p r o p e r t y b e i n g l o c a l i n n a t u r e ( i . e . r e s t r i c t e d t o a p a r t i c u l a r place).\"'\" The f o r c e s w h i c h d e t e r m i n e t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f b o t h demand and s u p p l y , t h e r e f o r e , a r e p r e d o m i n a n t l y g o v e r n e d by t h e d e m o g r a p h i c and e c o n o m i c p r o c e s s e s o p e r a t i n g w i t h i n a l o c a l m a r k e t a r e a . E v e n t h o u g h t h e s e l o c a l m a r k e t s a r e n o t i n s u l a t e d f r o m t h e a g g r e -g a t e e c o n o m i c e n v i r o n m e n t o f t h e c o u n t r y , t h e y m a i n t a i n u n i q u e 2 and i n d e p e n d e n t c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . S m i t h n o t e d t h a t t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t i s n o t r e a l l y a m a r k e t i n t h e c l a s s i c a l s e n c e b u t a s e r i e s o f o v e r l a p p i n g s u b m a r k e t s d i f f e r e n t i a t e d by l o c a t i o n , t y p e o f d w e l l i n g , t y p e o f t e n u r e , 3 age and q u a l i t y . E a c h o f t h e s u b m a r k e t s i s i n f l u e n c e d by d i f f e r e n t i n s t i t u t i o n a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s and b e h a v i o u r o f t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s i n t h e s e s u b m a r k e t s o f t e n d i f f e r s c o n s i d e r a b l y . 4 5 Demand F a c t o r s The t h e o r y o f consumer b e h a v i o u r i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e demand f o r a good o r s e r v i c e s h o u l d be a f u n c t i o n o f income and o f t h e p r i c e o f t h e good o r s e r v i c e r e l a t i v e t o a l l o t h e r p r i c e s . P e r c a p i t a demand f o r h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s s h o u l d t h u s be a f u n c t i o n o f p e r c a p i t a income and o f t h e p r i c e o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s r e l a t i v e t o o t h e r p r i c e s . D e m ographic f a c t o r s , s u c h as t h e age d i s t r i b u -t i o n o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n s h o u l d a l s o have some e f f e c t on t h e p e r c a p i t a demand f o r h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s . F o r p e o p l e who own t h e i r own home, t h e p r i c e o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s depends n o t o n l y on t h e p r i c e o f t h e h o u s e , b u t a l s o on t h e c o s t o f b o r r o w i n g t h e f u n d s t o f i n a n c e t h e p u r c h a s e o f t h e house and on e x p e n s e s f o r t a x e s and 4 m a i n t e n a n c e . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e c o s t o f mortgage c r e d i t , r e p r e -s e n t e d by t h e mortgage r a t e , t h e r e a r e n o n - p r i c e m o r t g a g e t e r m s ( l o a n - t o - v a l u e r a t i o , m ortgage s i z e s and d e b t s e r v i c e r a t i o s e t c . ) t h a t a f f e c t t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f mortgage c r e d i t and t h u s t h e demand f o r h o u s i n g . S u p p l y F a c t o r s The s u p p l y s i d e o f t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t i n c l u d e s t h e c o n -s t r u c t i o n s e c t o r . I n t h e c a s e o f p r o p e r t i e s f o r home-ownership, a d i s t i n c t i o n s h o u l d be made between homes b u i l t by m e r c h a n t b u i l d e r s f o r s u b s e q u e n t s a l e and c u s t o m - b u i l t homes, w h i c h a r e p r e - s o l d o r owner b u i l t . ~* A b u i l d e r ' s d e c i s i o n on w h e t h e r t o b u i l d a house ( o r s e t o f h o u s e s ) w o u l d depend upon, among o t h e r t h i n g s , t h e e x p e c t e d s e l l i n g p r i c e o f t h e house r e l a t i v e t o t h e e x p e c t e d c o s t o f b u i l d i n g t h e h o u s e . F o r many b u i l d e r s , t h e d e c i s i o n may a l s o d epend upon t h e e x p e c t e d p r o f i t a b i l i t y o f non-r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n . P a r t o f t h e c o s t o f b u i l d i n g a house 6 would be the cost of short-term c r e d i t , i n addition to material and labour costs. However, what makes the construction sector d i f f i c u l t to analyze i s the dependence of a builder's decision on expectations. The expected p r o f i t a b i l i t y of building a house i s a function of the (subjective) p r o b a b i l i t i e s of being able to s e l l the house at various prices, and i t i s d i f f i c u l t to determine 7 empirically the factors that influence these p r o b a b i l i t i e s . When the demand for owner-occupancy dwelling accommodation increases, the price of these dwellings, r e l a t i v e to comparatively fixed construction costs, increases, which may induce higher ex-pectations of p r o f i t and lead to an increase i n the volume of new construction undertaken by merchant builders. At the same time, the greater the demand for owner occupancy dwelling accommodation, the greater w i l l be the volume of construction of custom-built homes. In addition to the impact of the cost and a v a i l a b i l i t y of short-term financing on expectations of p r o f i t , the merchant builders assess the cost and a v a i l a b i l i t y of long-term financing to the consumer and may c u r t a i l building a c t i v i t y when they believe borrowing terms are too stringent for prospective pur-9 chasers to absorb. S i m i l a r l y , the volume of custom-home building would decline when borrowing terms become too stringent for the builders of these homes. In the case of multiple dwelling units, increases i n the f i n a l demand for rental accommodations would lead to higher rents and lower vacancy rates which would increase the l i k e l i h o o d that new construction projects would be p r o f i t a b l e , and, hence be undertaken.^ Since developers of multiple unit projects plan either to s e l l t h e i r buildings once they have been completed and rented or retain them for long-term investments, the d e s i r a b i l i t y 7 o f a p r o j e c t depends upon t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between i t s e x p e c t e d s e l l i n g p r i c e and i t s t o t a l c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t , o r upon t h e d e v e l -o p e r s e x p e c t e d y i e l d on i n v e s t e d c a p i t a l . B e c a u s e r e a l e s t a t e , j u s t as o t h e r l o n g - t e r m i n v e s t m e n t s w o u l d be p u r c h a s e d on a y i e l d b a s i s , t h e d e s i r a b i l i t y o f a p r o j e c t f r o m e i t h e r t h e \" s a l e \" o r \" y i e l d \" v i e w - p o i n t w o u l d depend upon t h e n e t c a s h f l o w , t h e amount o f m o r t g a g e f i n a n c e o b t a i n a b l e and t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e p r o j e c t , as w e l l as t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f t a x s h e l t e r s . 1 1 The c a s h f l o w depends upon t h e g r o s s r e n t a l income, as w e l l as o p e r a t i n g and f i n a n c i n g c o s t s ( i . e . m a i n t e n a n c e , r e p a i r s , p r o p e r t y t a x e s , i n t e r e s t and p r i n c i p l e r e p a y m e n t s , and o t h e r c u r r e n t e x p e n s e s ) . E q u i l i b r i u m A t any one t i m e t h e r e i s a c e r t a i n number o f h o u s e s e i t h e r o c c u p i e d o r v a c a n t and a v a i l a b l e f o r o c c u p a n c y and a c e r t a i n number o f h o u s e s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n , b a s e d on t h e l e v e l o f demand 12 f o r new h o u s i n g u n i t s . The s u p p l y o f h o u s e s a t any one t i m e i s 13 t h u s f i x e d . I f a t t h e e x i s t i n g s e t o f p r i c e s t h e q u a n t i t y o f h o u s e s demanded i s e q u a l t o t h e a v a i l a b l e s u p p l y l e s s t h e n o r m a l l e v e l o f v a c a n c i e s , t h e n t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t i s i n e q u i l i b r i u m ; 14 o t h e r w i s e n o t . I f t h e q u a n t i t y demanded i s g r e a t e r t h a n t h e s u p p l y b e i n g p r o v i d e d l e s s t h e n o r m a l l e v e l o f v a c a n c i e s , t h e n t h e a c t u a l l e v e l o f v a c a n c i e s w i l l be l e s s t h a n n o r m a l and t h e r e may be p e o p l e who w o u l d l i k e t o buy o r r e n t h o u s e s a t t h e a v a i l -a b l e p r i c e s who c a n n o t f i n d any. T h i s s i t u a t i o n s h o u l d o v e r t i m e c a u s e p r i c e s t o r i s e and b u i l d e r s t o b u i l d more h o u s e s t h a n t h e y o t h e r w i s e w o u l d t o meet t h e n o r m a l g r o w t h o f h o u s i n g needs c a u s e d by r e m o v a l s and p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h . 1 ^ I f t h e q u a n t i t y demanded i s 8 s m a l l e r t h a n t h e s u p p l y b e i n g p r o v i d e d l e s s t h e n o r m a l l e v e l o f v a c a n c i e s , t h e n t h e a c t u a l l e v e l o f v a c a n c i e s w o u l d be g r e a t e r t h a n n o r m a l and t h e r e may be p e o p l e who w o u l d l i k e t o s e l l t h e i r h o u s e s a t t h e a v a i l a b l e p r i c e s who c a n n o t f i n d anyone t o buy them. T h i s s i t u a t i o n , o v e r a d u r a t i o n o f t i m e , w o u l d c a u s e p r i c e s t o f a l l and b u i l d e r s t o b u i l d f e w e r h o u s e s t h a n t h e y o t h e r w i s e w o u l d . How q u i c k l y t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t moves t o w a r d e q u i l i b r i u m , w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e s u p p l y o f new h o u s i n g u n i t s , w o u l d depend, among o t h e r t h i n g s , on how q u i c k l y b u i l d e r s r e s p o n d t o p r i c e and v a c a n c y 16 c h a n g e s . B u i l d e r s may i n f a c t o v e r r e s p o n d i n t h e s h o r t - r u n and b u i l d h o u s e s t h a t t h e y end up h a v i n g t o s e l l a t a l o s s . The C o s t and A v a i l a b i l i t y o f C r e d i t The u n s t a b l e f l o w o f m o r t g a g e money has b een i d e n t i f i e d as 17 t h e most i m p o r t a n t c a u s e o f i n s t a b i l i t y i n h o u s i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n . The r e l a t i v e s u p p l y o f m o r t g a g e f u n d s a f f e c t p r e v a i l i n g p r i c e s (mortgage r a t e s ) and n o n - p r i c e c r e d i t t e r m s . However, t h e a b s o l u t e l e v e l o f i n t e r e s t r a t e s may be a m i s l e a d i n g i n d i c a t o r o f t i g h t n e s s o r e a s e o f c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s , b e c a u s e m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e s may be d e t e r m i n e d by f a c t o r s exogenous t o t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t and b e c a u s e o f t h e b e h a v i o u r o f l e n d i n g i n s t i -18 t u t i o n s . S t u d i e s o f c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s and l e n d i n g i n s t i t u t i o n s have f o c u s e d on t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f i n t e r e s t r a t e d i f f e r e n t i a l s , as w e l l as n o n - p r i c e l e n d i n g t e r m s and c o n d i t i o n s , w h i c h i n c l u d e t h e l o a n - t o - v a l u e r a t i o , d e b t s e r v i c e r a t i o , m a t u r i t y , and 19 c u s t o m e r r e l a t i o n s h i p i n t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f f u n d s . D u r i n g p e r i o d s i n w h i c h t h e r e a r e s h i f t s i n t h e demand a n d \/ o r s u p p l y c u r v e s f o r m o r t g a g e c r e d i t , m o r t g a g e r a t e s may n o t a d j u s t r a p i d l y 20 t o c l e a r t h e m o r t g a g e m a r k e t . C o n s e q u e n t l y , t e m p o r a r y q u a l i t a -9 t i v e c h a n g e s i n n o n - p r i c e c r e d i t t e r m s , r e p r e s e n t t h e mechanism 21 t o a d j u s t t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f a v a i l a b l e f u n d s . The phenomena o f l e n d e r s a l l o c a t i n g a v a i l a b l e f u n d s by means o f n o n - p r i c e c r e d i t 22 t e r m s has b e e n d e f i n e d a s c r e d i t r a t i o n i n g . A l t h o u g h s h i f t s i n t h e demand a n d \/ o r s u p p l y c u r v e s b r i n g a b o u t c r e d i t r a t i o n i n g , i t has p r i m a r i l y been s h i f t s t o t h e l e f t o f t h e s u p p l y c u r v e , r e s u l t i n g f r o m c h a n g e s i n m o n e t a r y p o l i c y , t h a t h as been t h e f a c t o r l e a d i n g t o c r e d i t r a t i o n i n g i n t h e home 23 m o r t g a g e m a r k e t . F a i r has a r g u e d t h a t when i n t e r e s t r a t e s do n o t r i s e t o c l e a r t h e m o r t g a g e m a r k e t , and c r e d i t i s r a t i o n e d , 24 t h e m a r k e t w o u l d n o t be i n e q u i l i b r i u m . However, K e n t n o t e d t h a t when c r e d i t t e r m s have been t i g h t e n e d s u f f i c i e n t l y , t h e demand c u r v e c o u l d be s h i f t e d s u c h t h a t t h e mortgage m a r k e t w o u l d 25 be i n e q u i l i b r i u m . The u s e o f n o n - p r i c e t e r m s by l e n d e r s i n 2 6 t h i s manner has been d e f i n e d as \" e q u i l i b r i u m c r e d i t r a t i o n i n g \" . However, an a l t e r n a t i v e t y p e o f c r e d i t r a t i o n i n g may t a k e p l a c e where t h e d i s c r i m i n a t i o n o f b o r r o w e r s g o v e r n s l o a n a p p r o v a l s w i t h -o u t a l t e r i n g common n o n - p r i c e t e r m s and s h i f t i n g t h e demand c u r v e . I n t h i s c a s e t h e q u a n t i t y o f mortgage f u n d s s u p p l i e d may be much l e s s t h a n t h e q u a n t i t y o f m o r t g a g e f u n d s demanded, and t h e m a r k e t w o u l d r e m a i n i n d i s e q u i l i b r i u m ( i . e . d i s e q u i l i b r i u m c r e d i t r a t i o n -. . 27 i n g ) . T u c k e r has n o t e d t h a t w h i l e t h e i n t e r e s t r a t e a d j u s t m e n t i s d e l a y e d , i n v e s t m e n t w i l l i n i t i a l l y f a c e t h e f u l l i m p a c t o f 2 8 c r e d i t r a t i o n i n g , t o w h i c h i t r e s p o n d s more r a p i d l y . The c r e d i t r a t i o n i n g may d i s a p p e a r b e f o r e i n v e s t m e n t h a s a d j u s t e d v e r y f a r , b u t d u r i n g t h e s h o r t i n t e r v a l o f c r e d i t r a t i o n i n g , i t w o u l d move f u r t h e r t o w a r d e q u i l i b r i u m t h a n i t w o u l d have w i t h an i n s t a n t a n e o u s i n t e r e s t r a t e a d j u s t m e n t . I t w o u l d a p p e a r , t h e r e -10 f o r e , t h a t m o r t g a g e r a t e s a l o n e w o u l d be i n s u f f i c i e n t t o measure t h e s u p p l y o f m o r t g a g e f u n d s . F a i r h a s a r g u e d t h a t t h e m o r t g a g e m a r k e t has an a s y m m e t r i c -29 a l e f f e c t on t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t . I f t h e m o r t g a g e r a t e was t o o h i g h i n t h e s e n s e t h a t t h e s u p p l y o f m o r t g a g e s was g r e a t e r t h a n t h e demand ( a t t h a t p r i c e ) , t h i s w o u l d have l i t t l e e f f e c t on t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t . He s t a t e d t h a t b u i l d e r s ( i n c l u d i n g p e o p l e who b u i l d t h e i r own homes) w o u l d be a b l e t o g e t a l l o f t h e m o r t g a g e commitments t h a t t h e y wanted, and t h e f a c t t h a t f i n a n c i a l i n t e r -m e d i a r i e s w o u l d l i k e t o i s s u e more commitments t h a n t h e b u i l d e r s w o u l d be t a k i n g s h o u l d n o t i n g e n e r a l i n d u c e t h e b u i l d e r s t o t a k e any more. I n a d d i t i o n , F a i r a r g u e d t h a t , o n l y i f e x c e s s s u p p l y i n t h e m o r t g a g e m a r k e t c a u s e d b u i l d e r s t o change t h e i r e x p e c t a -t i o n s a b o u t s e l l i n g p r i c e s , w o u l d e x c e s s s u p p l y i n t h e m o r t g a g e m a r k e t be e x p e c t e d t o h a v e a s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t on t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t ; b u t he n o t e d t h a t t h i s w o u l d n o t seem v e r y l i k e l y . F u r t h e r m o r e , he a r g u e d t h a t e x c e s s s u p p l y i n t h e m o r t g a g e m a r k e t w o u l d n o t have a s i g n i f i c a n t e f f e c t on t h e demand f o r h o u s e s u n l e s s t h e c o s t o f m o r t g a g e c r e d i t f e l l . However, t h e v i e w t h a t i n c r e a s e s i n t h e s u p p l y o f m o r t g a g e c r e d i t ( w i t h o u t a change i n t h e m o r t g a g e r a t e ) w o u l d be i n s u f f i c i e n t t o i n c r e a s e t h e demand f o r h o u s e s w o u l d a p p e a r t o be c o n t r a r y t o t h e arguments p r e s e n t e d by o t h e r s . F i s h e r and Siegman have n o t e d t h a t s h o r t - t e r m v a r i a t i o n s i n p r i v a t e r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n o c c u r i n r e s p o n s e t o c h a n g i n g 31 c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s . They a l s o a r g u e t h a t t h e l a c k o f a v a i l a b l e l o n g - t e r m f i n a n c i n g may have been t h e d o m i n a n t f a c t o r a c c o u n t i n g f o r c y c l i c a l d e c l i n e s i n p r i v a t e h o u s i n g o u t p u t and t h a t h i g h and r i s i n g c o s t s o f m o r t g a g e c r e d i t seemed t o have a l e s s e r s i g n i f i -11 c a n c e . C o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e above argument, G r e b l e r (and o t h e r s ) f o u n d t h a t w i t h r e g a r d t o b o r r o w e r demand f o r f u n d s , v a r i a t i o n s i n downpayments and i n t h e p e r i o d i c d e b t s e r v i c e c h a r g e s a r e . , 32 c r u c i a l . I t w o u l d a p p e a r , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f mortgage c r e d i t , r a t h e r t h a n t h e c o s t (measured by t h e mortgage i n t e r e s t r a t e ) , may have an i m p o r t a n t r o l e i n t h e demand f o r h o u s i n g . I f more p e o p l e a r e a b l e t o o b t a i n c r e d i t t h e i r o t h e r -w i s e l a t e n t demand f o r h o u s i n g may be made e f f e c t i v e , s i n c e t h e i r c u r r e n t income becomes a d e q u a t e t o a c q u i r e an o t h e r w i s e u n a f f o r d -a b l e a s s e t . A l t h o u g h t h e above c o n c e p t i d e n t i f i e s t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f n o n - p r i c e c r e d i t t e r m s i n r e l a t i o n t o mortgage i n t e r e s t r a t e s , i t s h o u l d be n o t e d t h a t t h e r e i s some e v i d e n c e t h a t co-movement p a t t e r n s i n s t r i n g e n t i n t e r e s t r a t e and n o n - p r i c e t e r m s a r e p r e -v a l e n t , where t h e l a t t e r r e s p o n d s more q u i c k l y t o a c h a n g i n g 33 e c o n o m i c e n v i r o n m e n t . I n v i e w o f t h e above, t h e r e w o u l d a p p e a r t o be two main c o n c e p t s p e r t a i n i n g t o t h e e f f e c t o f an i n c r e a s e i n t h e a v a i l a -b i l i t y o f c r e d i t . T h e s e c o n c e p t s may be e x p r e s s e d by a h y p o t h e s i s and i t s a l t e r n a t e : H y p o t h e s i s : T h a t l e s s s t r i n g e n t n o n - p r i c e t e r m s a r e s u f f i c i e n t ( i f n o t c r u c i a l ) t o i n d u c e an i n c r e a s e i n demand f o r h o u s i n g ( i . e . c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y t e n d s t o be s y m m e t r i c i n i t s a f f e c t on h o u s i n g s t a r t s ) . A l t e r n a t e T h a t l e s s s t r i n g e n t n o n - p r i c e t e r m s a r e i n s u f f i c i e n t H y p o t h e s i s : t o i n d u c e an i n c r e a s e i n t h e demand f o r h o u s i n g ( i . e . c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y t e n d s t o be a s y m m e t r i c i n i t s a f f e c t on h o u s i n g s t a r t s ) . 12 F o o t n o t e s \"^Richard U. R a t c l i f f , U r b a n L a n d E c o n o m i c s ( T o r o n t o : M c G r a w - H i l l Company o f Canada, 1949), p. 280. 2 F a c u l t y o f Commerce and B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , R e a l E s t a t e and A p p r a i s a l D i p l o m a C o u r s e :  E c o n o m i c s o f R e a l P r o p e r t y ( V a n c o u v e r : U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1 9 7 5 ) , pp. 85 and 86. 3 Lawrence B. S m i t h , \"A B i - S e c t o r a l H o u s i n g M a r k e t M o d e l \" , The C a n a d i a n J o u r n a l o f E c o n o m i c s , No. 4 (November 1 9 6 9 ) , p. 5 58. 4 Ray C. F a i r , \" D i s e q u i l i b r i u m i n H o u s i n g M o d e l s \" , The  J o u r n a l Of F i n a n c e , V o l . 27 (May 1 9 7 2 ) , p. 207. 5 S m i t h , \"A B i - S e c t o r a l H o u s i n g M a r k e t M o d e l \" , p. 560. F a i r , \" D i s e q u i l i b r i u m i n H o u s i n g M o d e l s \" , p. 208. 7 I b i d . , p. 208. Q S m i t h , \"A B i - S e c t o r a l H o u s i n g M a r k e t M o d e l \" , p. 56 0. 9 I b i d . , p. 560. 1 0 I b i d . , p. 560. i : L I b i d . , p. 560. 12 D a v i d S. Huang, \"A S t u d y o f t h e M a r k e t f o r New H o u s i n g U n i t s \" , P r o c e e d i n g s o f t h e B u s i n e s s and E c o n o m i c S t a t i s t i c s  S e c t i o n o f t h e A m e r i c a n S t a t i s t i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n ( 1 9 6 9 ) , p. 705. 13 F a i r , \" D i s e q u i l i b r i u m i n H o u s i n g M o d e l s \" , p. 209. 1 4 I b i d . , p. 209. 1 5 I b i d . , p. 209. 1 6 I b i d . , p. 209 17 J o s e p h H. Chung, C y c l i c a l I n s t a b i l i t y i n R e s i d e n t i a l  C o n s t r u c t i o n i n Canada (Ottawa: E c o n o m i c C o u n c i l o f Canada, 1 9 7 6 ) , p. 33. 18 Chung's model o f t h e C a n a d i a n c o n v e n t i o n a l m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e f a i l e d t o e s t i m a t e c o e f f i c i e n t o f t h e income and t h e s t o c k o f d w e l l i n g s p e r f a m i l y v a r i a b l e s (demand d e t e r m i n i n g ) t h a t were \" s i g n i f i c a n t a t t h e u s u a l p r o b a b i l i t y l e v e l , a l t h o u g h t h e y a p p e a r w i t h t h e c o r r e c t s i g n \" . 13 Chung, p. .81. and C l i n t o n and Masson f o u n d a s t r o n g r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e c o n v e n t i o n a l m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e and t h e l a g g e d v a l u e s o f o n e - t o - t h r e e - y e a r r a t e m a t u r i t i e s o f Government o f Canada bonds and t h e a v e r a g e y i e l d on c o r p o r a t e , m u n i c i p a l , and p r o v i n -c i a l b o n d s . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e s e bonds were a f u n c t i o n o f D o m e s t i c and U.S. T r e a s u r y B i l l s as w e l l as f i v e - t o - t e n - y e a r m a t u r i t y Government o f Canada and U.S. b o n d s . K e v i n C l i n t o n and P a u l Masson, A M o n t h l y M o d e l o f t h e  C a n a d i a n F i n a n c i a l S y s t e m . T e c h n i c a l R e p o r t No. 4 (Ottawa: Bank o f Canada, 1 9 7 5 ) , p. 38. 19 G e r a l d K. Bouey, A c c o u n t i n g f o r M o n e t a r y P o l i c y , Remarks o f b e f o r e a M e e t i n g o f t h e C e r t i f i e d G e n e r a l A c c o u n t a n t s A s s o c i -a t i o n o f O n t a r i o , T o r o n t o , J a n u a r y 30, 1969 (Ottawa: Bank o f Canada, 1 9 6 9 ) , pp. 10-11; G e r a l d K. Bouey, \" R e c e n t M o n e t a r y D e v e l o p m e n t \" , Bank o f Canada Review (Ottawa: Bank o f Canada, O c t o b e r , 1 9 7 3 ) , p. 21; Lawrence B. S m i t h , P o s t w a r C a n a d i a n  H o u s i n g R e s i d e n t i a l M o r t g a g e M a r k e t ( T o r o n t o : U n i v e r s i t y o f T o r o n t o P r e s s , 1974), p.777; Chung, pp. 35 and 51; J . V. P o a p s t , D e v e l o p i n g t h e R e s i d e n t i a l M o r t g a g e M a r k e t , V o l . 1 (Ottawa: Canada M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n , 1 9 7 5 ) , p. 7; Duane G. H a r r i s , \" I n t e r e s t R a t e s , N o n - P r i c e Terms and t h e A l l o c a t i o n o f Bank C r e d i t \" , S o u t h e r n E c o n o m i c J o u r n a l , V o l . 40 ( C h a p e l H i l l , N. C a r o l i n a : U n i v e r s i t y o f N o r t h C a r o l i n a , 1 974), pp. 428-433; and R i c h a r d J . K e n t , \" C r e d i t R a t i o n i n g and t h e Home Mo r t g a g e M a r k e t \" , Money, C r e d i t , and B a n k i n g , V o l . 12, No. 3 ( A u g u s t , 1 9 8 0 ) , p. 488. 20 F a i r , \" D i s e q u i l i b r i u m i n H o u s i n g M o d e l s \" , p. 209. 21 P o a p s t , p. 7; Chung, pp. 33, 34 and 36; and James O s t a s and F r a n k Zahn, \" I n t e r e s t and N o n - I n t e r e s t R a t i o n i n g i n t h e M o r t g a g e M a r k e t \" , J o u r n a l o f M o n e t a r y E c o n o m i c s , V o l . 1, No. 2 ( A p r i l , 1975), p. 187. 2 2 K e n t , p. 489. 23 A l t h o u g h K e n t makes t h i s c o n c l u s i o n b a s e d on t h e e x p e r -i e n c e i n t h e U n i t e d S t a t e s , S m i t h h a s o b s e r v e d t h a t t h r o u g h o u t most o f t h e p o s t w a r p e r i o d ( i n C a n a d a ) , v i r t u a l l y a l l t h e f l u c t u a t i o n s i n t h e volume o f new r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n may be a t t r i b u t e d t o f l u c t u a t i o n s i n t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f m o r t g a g e f i n a n c i n g . F u r t h e r m o r e , S m i t h h a s n o t e d t h a t a l t h o u g h m o n e t a r y p o l i c y has n o t been f o r m u l a t e d e s p e c i a l l y t o i n f l u e n c e t h e l e v e l o f r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n , i t has e x e r t e d a tremendous i n -f l u e n c e upon r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t y b y a f f e c t i n g t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f m o r t g a g e f u n d s and t h e demand f o r t h i s c r e d i t . 14 K e n t , p. 489; Lawrence B. S m i t h , \"The P o s t w a r C a n a d i a n R e s i d e n t i a l M o r t g a g e M a r k e t \" , u n p u b l i s h e d Ph.D. t h e s i s , H a r v a r d U n i v e r s i t y , 1966, q u o t e d i n Chung, p. 33; and Lawr e n c e B. S m i t h , H o u s i n g i n Canada, R e s e a r c h Monograph 2 o f U r b a n Canada: P r o b l e m s and P r o s p e c t s (Ottawa: Canada M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n , 1971), p. 67. 2 4 F a i r , p. 209. 2 5 K e n t , p. 490. 2 6 I b i d . , p. 480. 2 7 I b i d . , p. 490. and T u c k e r h a s n o t e d t h a t Banks may t e n d t o c o n c e n t r a t e a g i v e n amount o f r a t i o n i n g on a few b o r r o w e r s , g i v i n g them n o t h i n g , o r m e r e l y c u t p o r t i o n s f r o m l o a n r e q u e s t s o f many more b o r r o w e r s . However t h e r e has been an i n i t i a l t e n d e n c y f o r c r e d i t r a t i o n i n g t o c o n c e n t r a t e h e a v i l y on a few b o r r o w e r s , who c a n n o t accommodate t h e m s e l v e s t o t h e d r a s t i c r e d u c t i o n i n money b a l a n c e s t h a t w o u l d be i m p o s e d on them i f t h e y were t o c o n t i n u e t o spend as much as t h e y had p l a n n e d . D o n a l d P. T u c k e r , \" C r e d i t R a t i o n i n g , I n t e r e s t R a t e L a g s , and M o n e t a r y P o l i c y S peed\", Q u a r t e r l y J o u r n a l o f E c o n o m i c s , V o l . 82 ( F e b r u a r y , 1 9 6 8 ) , p. 61. and P o a p s t n o t e s t h a t d u r i n g t i g h t money c o n d i t i o n s , i n s t i t u -t i o n a l l e n d e r s may d i s c r i m i n a t e between p o t e n t i a l b o r r o w e r s b a s e d on c r i t e r i a o t h e r t h a n p e r t a i n i n g t o t h e c a p a c i t y t o c a r r y o u t t h e m o r t g a g e c o n t r a c t . P o a p s t , p. 7. 2 8 T u c k e r , p. 59. 29 F a i r , p. 210. 30 I b i d . , p. 211. 31 R o b e r t M. F i s h e r and C h a r l e s J . Siegman, \" H o u s i n g and F i n a n c i a l R e s t r a i n t : O b s e r v a t i o n s on F o r e i g n E x p e r i e n c e \" , i n Ways t o M o d e r a t e F l u c t u a t i o n s i n H o u s i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n , F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S t a f f S t u d y ( W a s h i n g t o n , D . C : P u b l i c a t i o n S e r v i c e s , B o a r d o f G o v e r n o r s o f t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e System, March, 1972) , p. 136. 32 Leo G r e b l e r , D a v i d B l a n k , and L e w i s W m n i c k , C a p i t a l  F o r m a t i o n i n R e s i d e n t i a l R e a l E s t a t e : T r e n d s and P r o s p e c t s (New Y o r k : N a t i o n a l B u r e a u o f E c o n o m i c R e s e a r c h , 1956), p. 236. 15 H a r r i s , \" I n t e r e s t R a t e s , N o n - P r i c e Terms and t h e A l l o c a t i o n o f Bank C r e d i t \" , p. 234; and S m i t h , P o s t w a r C a n a d i a n H o u s i n g  R e s i d e n t i a l M o r t g a g e M a r k e t , p. 77. CHAPTER I I I REVIEW OF PREVIOUS HOUSING MARKET MODELS S e l e c t i o n C r i t e r i a A number o f e c o n o m e t r i c m o d els o f t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t a r e a v a i l a b l e i n t h e l i t e r a t u r e . F i v e o f t h e s e m o d e l s have been s e l e c t e d and r e v i e w e d h e r e on t h e b a s i s o f t h e i r a t t e n t i o n t o v a r i o u s e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e s , t h e i r a t t e m p t s t o d i s a g g r e g a t e t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t o r t o p r o v i d e a d i f f e r e n t a n a l y t i c a l s t r u c t u r e , and t h e i r p e r t i n e n c e t o h o u s i n g d e v e l o p m e n t i n Canada. An a t t e m p t has b e en made t o summarize t h e c o n t e n t s o f t h e s t u d i e s i n c l u d i n g t h e v a r i a b l e s c o n s i d e r e d , and t h e s u c c e s s o f e a c h m o d e l . The M a i s e l M odel M a i s e l f o c u s e d on h o u s i n g f l u c t u a t i o n s and p r e s e n t e d a m a r k e t model d e s i g n e d t o s p e c i f i c a l l y a i d i n t h e a n a l y s i s o f t h e c y c l i c a l b e h a v i o u r o f h o u s i n g s t a r t s . 1 M a i s e l a r g u e d t h a t s h o r t r u n i n s t a b i l i t i e s t h a t c h a r a c t e r i z e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s have numerous c a u s e s d e e p l y imbedded i n t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n p r o c e s s . I n c o n t r a s t , movements i n u n d e r l y i n g demand f o r m a more s t a b l e e q u i l i b r i u m a r o u n d w h i c h i n v e n t o r i e s f l u c t u a t e . M a i s e l c o n s t r u c t e d a b a s i c model and d i s c u s s e d t h e i n t e r -r e l a t i o n s h i p s among t h e m a r k e t components, i l l u s t r a t e d t h e v a r i a b l e s , and s e l e c t e d some o f t h e \"more o b v i o u s \" r e l a t i o n s h i p s f o r a n a l y s i s and s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t i n g . W i t h i n t h e s y s t e m h y p o t h e -1 6 17 s i z e d , t h e \" l a g s , a c c e l e r a t i o n , p a r t i a l a m p l i f i c a t i o n \" , w o u l d t e n d t o p r o d u c e an i n h e r e n t i n s t a b i l i t y . The b a s i c m odel h y p o t h e -s i z e d t h a t t h e number o f s t a r t s was e q u a l t o t h e sum o f t h e n e t h o u s e h o l d f o r m a t i o n ( i . e . t h e change i n t h e number o f h o u s e h o l d s ) , t h e number o f r e m o v a l s i n t h e s t o c k , t h e change i n t h e number o f v a c a n c i e s a b o u t t h e i r t r e n d , and t h e change i n t h e i n v e n t o r i e s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n . The n e t h o u s e h o l d f o r m a t i o n was c o n s i d e r e d a f u n c t i o n o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n , d i s p o s a b l e income, unemployment, c r e d i t , p r i c e s and t i m e (a p r o x y f o r s o c i a l f a c t o r s ) . N e t r e m o v a l s f r o m t h e a v a i l a b l e h o u s i n g was c o n s i d e r e d a f u n c t i o n o f g o vernment a c t i o n , income, v a c a n c i e s , s t o c k o f h o u s i n g and t i m e . Changes i n v a c a n c i e s a b o u t t h e t r e n d were c o n s i d e r e d d e p e n d e n t upon c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s , e x p e c t a t i o n s a b o u t t h e s u p p l y and demand i n t h e m a r k e t , t e r m s and p r i c e s o f c r e d i t , r e n t and h o u s e p r i c e s , and v a c a n c i e s above t h e e q u i l i b r i u m . Changes i n i n v e n t o r i e s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n were c o n s i d e r e d d e p e n d e n t upon t h e d i f f e r e n c e between s t a r t s i n a p e r i o d and c o m p l e t i o n s w h i c h were c o n s i d e r e d a f u n c t i o n o f p r e v i o u s s t a r t s . M a i s e l s t a t e d t h a t t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f c r e d i t may be more i m p o r t a n t t h a n i t s c o s t , b u t t h i s l i n e o f argument was n o t p u r s u e d b e y o n d u s i n g a s h o r t - t e r m r a t e r a t h e r t h a n a l o n g - t e r m r a t e i n t h e e q u a t i o n e x p l a i n i n g h o u s i n g s t a r t s . The e q u a t i o n d i d n o t a l l o w f o r t h e e f f e c t o f c r e d i t r a t i o n i n g e x c e p t t h a t t h e use o f t h e s h o r t - t e r m r a t e may i m p l y t h a t d u r i n g t h o s e p e r i o d s when l o n g -t e r m r a t e s d i d n o t r e f l e c t p r e v a i l i n g c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s c r e d i t was r a t i o n e d . However, t h e mere i n c l u s i o n o f t h e s h o r t - t e r m r a t e , as an e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e i n t h e e q u a t i o n , d i d n o t p r o v i d e f o r t h e p o t e n t i a l a s y m m e t r i c a l e f f e c t o f c r e d i t r a t i o n i n g . 18 S t a t i s t i c a l t e s t i n g o f t h e model i n v o l v e d u t i l i z i n g a r e d u c e d f o r m o f t h e b a s i c model i n v i e w o f m i s s i n g v a r i a b l e s and i n e x a c t e s t i m a t e s i n t h e a v a i l a b l e d a t a . The m odel was c o n s i d e r e d t o meet t r a d i t i o n a l s t a t i s t i c a l t e s t s and t h e e x i s t e n c e o f c o e f f i c i e n t s w i t h t h e c o r r e c t s i g n , t h e h i g h R s q u a r e d v a l u e , and t h e a b i l i t y o f t h e model t o p r e d i c t t u r n i n g p o i n t s i n t h e number o f h o u s i n g s t a r t s , p r o v i d e d e v i d e n c e o f t h e a p p r o p r i a t e -n e s s o f t h e s t r u c t u r e o f t h e m o d e l . The Huang M o d e l Huang p r e s e n t e d a s t o c k a d j u s t m e n t model o f a h o u s i n g m a r k e t t o i d e n t i f y t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between s p e c i f i c v a r i a b l e s 2 c o n t r i b u t i n g t o s h o r t - r u n f l u c t u a t i o n s i n h o u s i n g s t a r t s . He s e p a r a t e d t h e a n a l y s i s o f t h e demand f o r , and s u p p l y o f , s i n g l e -f a m i l y and m u l t i - f a m i l y u n i t s . The h o u s i n g s t a r t s model was b a s e d on t h e t h e o r i z e d s h o r t - r u n b e h a v i o u r o f t h e h o u s e c o n -s t r u c t i o n i n d u s t r y and i n c l u d e d a measure o f t h e b u i l d e r ' s e x p e c t e d p r o f i t , t h e c o s t o f s h o r t - t e r m c r e d i t and t h e g e n e r a l a v a i l a b i l i t y o f c r e d i t , as w e l l a s t h e e x c e s s s u p p l y i n t h e s t o c k o f h o u s i n g . The p r i c e o f ( r e n t o f ) h o u s i n g w h i c h e n t e r e d t h e i n d i c a t o r o f t h e b u i l d e r s ' e x p e c t e d p r o f i t was c o n s i d e r e d a f u n c t i o n o f t h e e x c e s s s u p p l y o f h o u s i n g , c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t s and l a g g e d h o u s e p r i c e s ( r e n t s ) . The e x c e s s s u p p l y o f h o u s i n g v a r i a b l e was e s t i m a t e d by t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e e q u a t i o n e x p r e s s i n g t h e demand f o r h o u s i n g ( s i n g l e h o u s e s o r m u l t i p l e ) and c o m p l e t i o n s . The g e n e r a l a v a i l a b i l i t y o f c r e d i t was i n d i c a -t e d by t h e n e t f r e e r e s e r v e s o f t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e member b a n k s . The demand f o r s i n g l e h o u s e s was b a s e d on l a g g e d demand, e x p e c t e d income, t h e change i n a number o f n o n - p r i c e c r e d i t v a r i a b l e s , and 19 t h e e x p e c t e d r e n t t o h o u s e p r i c e r a t i o . W i t h r e s p e c t t o new m u l t i - f a m i l y u n i t s f o r r e n t a l accommodation t h e demand e q u a t i o n was b a s e d on l a g g e d demand, e x p e c t e d income, and r e n t r e l a t i v e t o t h e c o s t o f o t h e r goods and s e r v i c e s r e p r e s e n t e d by t h e consumer p r i c e i n d e x . I n Huang's model t h e m o r t g a g e m a r k e t a f f e c t e d demand t h r o u g h t h e mortgage r a t e , t h e l o a n - t o - v a l u e r a t i o , and t h e a m o r t i z a t i o n v a r i a b l e . The non-mortgage f i n a n c i a l s e c t o r a f f e c t -ed s t a r t s t h r o u g h t h e s h o r t - t e r m i n t e r e s t r a t e and t h e f r e e -r e s e r v e s v a r i a b l e . However, t h e mere us e o f t h e f r e e - r e s e r v e s v a r i a b l e and t h e l o a n - t o - v a l u e r a t i o , as e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e s i n t h e m o d e l , d i d n o t p r o v i d e f o r t h e p o t e n t i a l a s y m m e t r i c a l e f f e c t o f c r e d i t r a t i o n i n g . When e s t i m a t i o n s o f t h e e q u a t i o n s i n t h e model were made, most o f t h e e s t i m a t e d c o e f f i c i e n t s had t h e c o r r e c t s i g n and many were c o n s i d e r e d s i g n i f i c a n t u n d e r c o n v e n t i o n a l t e s t s . However, s u b s e q u e n t e f f o r t s i n f u r t h e r e s t i m a t e s were c o n s i d e r e d f r u s t r a -t e d b e c a u s e \" d a t a f o r many c r u c i a l v a r i a b l e s were n o t a v a i l a b l e \" . The F a i r and J a f f e e M o d e l F a i r and J a f f e e were c o n c e r n e d w i t h e c o n o m e t r i c p r o b l e m s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h e s t i m a t i n g s u p p l y and demand s c h e d u l e s i n d i s -3 e q u i l i b r i u m m a r k e t s . On t h e b a s i s o f t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t was a m a r k e t w h i c h was n o t a l w a y s i n e q u i l i b r i u m and i n w h i c h r a t i o n i n g o c c u r r e d , t h e y h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t i n t h e a b s e n c e o f an e q u i l i b r i u m c o n d i t i o n t h e o b s e r v e d q u a n t i t y t r a d e d i n t h e m a r k e t w o u l d n o t s a t i s f y b o t h t h e demand and s u p p l y s c h e d u l e s . S t a r t i n g w i t h a s i m p l e b a s i c model f o r demand and f o r s u p p l y , f o u r methods were u s e d t o e s t i m a t e t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p 2 0 between t h e number o f h o u s i n g s t a r t s o b s e r v e d and t h e demand f o r h o u s i n g and t h e s u p p l y o f mo r t g a g e money. The b a s i c h o u s i n g m o d e l s u s e d were d e v e l o p e d w i t h i n t h e c o n t e x t o f an a g g r e g a t e f o r e c a s t i n g m o d e l . The demand f o r h o u s -i n g s t a r t s , d u r i n g a month, was assumed t o be a f u n c t i o n o f p o p u l a t i o n g r o w t h and t r e n d income ( b o t h o f w h i c h were a p p r o x i -mated by a t i m e t r e n d ) , t h e s t o c k o f h o u s e s i n e x i s t e n c e o r u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n d u r i n g t h e p r e v i o u s month, and t h e mortgage r a t e l a g g e d two months. The s u p p l y o f h o u s i n g s t a r t s , d u r i n g a month, was assumed t o be a f u n c t i o n o f t h e mo r t g a g e r a t e l a g g e d one month, t h e f l o w o f b o r r o w i n g s by t h e s a v i n g s and l o a n a s s o c i a t i o n s f r o m t h e F e d e r a l Home L o a n Bank, and a t i m e t r e n d t o p i c k up t h e p o s s i b l e t r e n d i n c r e a s e i n t h e d e p o s i t - h o u s i n g s t a r t s r a t i o . B o t h f u n c t i o n s were augmented by e l e v e n dummy v a r i a b l e s t o p r o v i d e f o r s e a s o n a l i t y and a \"work day\" v a r i a b l e was added t o a c c o u n t f o r t h e number o f work d a y s i n a month. The f i r s t method u s e d t o e s t i m a t e t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p was t h e maximum l i k e l i h o o d method f o r f i n d i n g t h e o p t i m a l s e p a r a t i o n o f t h e sample i n t o s u p p l y and demand r e g i m e s . The o t h e r t h r e e methods d i s c u s s e d b e l o w u s e d p r i c e - s e t t i n g i n f o r m a t i o n t o r e d u c e c o m p u t a t i o n a l d i f f i c u l t i e s and t o make more u s e o f t h e a v a i l a b l e d a t a . Method two u s e d t h e movements i n t h e d i r e c t i o n (0_)of t h e mo r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e t o s e p a r a t e t h e sample i n t o p e r i o d s o f + e x c e s s demand ( 0 ) and e x c e s s s u p p l y ( 0 ) . Method t h r e e u s e d t h e movements i n t h e d i r e c t i o n (CJ) o f t h e mortgage i n t e r e s t r a t e t o d i v i d e t h e sample i n t o a p e r i o d o f e x c e s s demand (-) and a p e r i o d o f e x c e s s s u p p l y (+), as w e l l as d i f f e r e n t sample s e p a r a t i o n s c o r r e s p o n d i n g t o a l t e r n a t i v e a s s u m p t i o n s a b o u t t h e e x c e s s demand 21 s t a t u s o f t h e m a r k e t d u r i n g ' d o u b t f u l p e r i o d s ' ( 0 ) . The f o u r t h p r o c e d u r e , o r q u a n t i t a t i v e a p p r o a c h , u s e d t h e movements i n t h e d i r e c t i o n o f t h e mortgage i n t e r e s t r a t e t o a d j u s t t h e s u p p l y and t h e demand e q u a t i o n s , e a c h t o be e s t i m a t e d o v e r t h e e n t i r e sample p e r i o d , by a d d i n g t h e change i n t h e m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e as an i m p l i e d a d j u s t m e n t f o r t h e amount o f r a t i o n i n g . W i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e demand c u r v e , i f t h e mortgage r a t e was i n c r e a s i n g , o r e q u a l t o z e r o , t h e change i n t h e r a t e was e n t e r e d as an e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e ; however, i f i t was f a l l i n g t h e v a l u e e n t e r e d was z e r o . W i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e s u p p l y c u r v e , i f t h e m o r t g a g e r a t e was d e c r e a s i n g , o r e q u a l t o z e r o , t h e change i n t h e m o r t g a g e r a t e was e n t e r e d w i t h a n e g a t i v e s i g n as an e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e , a l t e r n a t i v e l y t h e v a l u e z e r o was e n t e r e d . The F a i r and J a f f e e model was d e s i g n e d t o p r o v i d e f o r an a s y m m e t r i c e f f e c t o f t h e mortgage m a r k e t on h o u s i n g s t a r t s . How-e v e r , t h e model d i d n o t a p p e a r t o p r o v i d e f o r t h e p o s s i b i l i t y o f a s u s t a i n e d change i n t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f mortgage f u n d s as i n d i c a t e d by ( f o r example) a h i g h e r l o a n - t o - v a l u e r a t i o w h i c h may ( o r may n o t ) be co m p e n s a t e d by a h i g h e r i n t e r e s t r a t e . A l t h o u g h t h e t i m e t r e n d i n t h e demand e q u a t i o n may have c a p t u r e d t r e n d s i n n o n - p r i c e c r e d i t t e r m s , t h e i n d e p e n d e n t i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e s e v a r i a b l e s w o u l d n o t be d e t e r m i n e d . F u r t h e r m o r e , s i n c e movements i n m o r t g a g e r a t e s w o u l d l i k e l y l a g b e h i n d movements i n more r e s -p o n s i v e r a t e s , t h e u s e o f s u c h movements t o i n d i c a t e c h a n g e s i n c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s w o u l d a p p e a r t o be q u e s t i o n a b l e t o m o d e l i n g s h o r t - r u n b e h a v i o u r . A t t e m p t s t o e s t i m a t e t h e e q u a t i o n s w i t h t h e maximum l i k e -l i h o o d t e c h n i q u e d i d n o t p r o v e s u c c e s s f u l , b e c a u s e t h e r e d i d n o t 22 a p p e a r t o be an a p p r o p r i a t e a l g o r i t h m t o i d e n t i f y t h e s w i t c h i n g p o i n t s , where t h e q u a n t i t y o b s e r v e d r e f l e c t e d e i t h e r t h e s u p p l y o r demand s c h e d u l e s , s h o r t o f s c a n n i n g a l l c o m b i n a t i o n s . Method two p r o v i d e d good f i t s o f t h e d a t a , and t h e c o e f f i c i e n t e s t i m a t e s were t h e e x p e c t e d s i g n s . Method t h r e e p r o v i d e d good f i t s and t h e s i g n s were c o r r e c t ; however, t h e c o e f f i c i e n t e s t i m a t e p e r t a i n i n g t o t h e m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e a p p e a r e d t o be t o o l a r g e i n a b s o l u t e v a l u e , and e x - a n t e f o r e c a s t i n g had p o o r r e s u l t s . E s t i m a t e s o f t h e e q u a t i o n s , u s i n g t h e q u a n t i t a t i v e method, had c o e f f i c i e n t s w i t h an a p p r o p r i a t e s i g n , and t h e a u t h o r s c o n s i d e r e d t h e r e s u l t s c o n f i r m e d t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t demand was g r e a t e r t h a n s u p p l y when t h e change i n t h e m o r t g a g e r a t e was p o s i t i v e and l e s s t h a n s u p p l y when t h e change i n t h e m o r t g a g e r a t e was n e g a t i v e . The S m i t h M o d e l S m i t h a t t e m p t e d t o i n v e s t i g a t e t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e s i n g l e and m u l t i p l e d w e l l i n g u n i t s e c t o r s o f t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t and t o d e v e l o p a b i - s e c t o r a l model t o e x p l a i n s i n g l e and m u l t i p l e 4 h o u s i n g s t a r t s , h o u s i n g p r i c e s and r e n t s i n Canada. The p a p e r was d i v i d e d i n t o f o u r s e c t i o n s . The f i r s t s e c t i o n i n d i c a t e d some o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e s between h o u s i n g m a r k e t s e c t o r s , and p r e s e n t e d t h e o v e r - a l l s t r u c t u r e o f t h e m o d e l . The s e c o n d s e c t i o n e x amined and s t a t i s t i c a l l y e s t i m a t e d t h e d e t e r m i n a n t s o f s i n g l e and m u l t i p l e h o u s i n g s t a r t s , w h i l e t h e t h i r d s e c t i o n d i d t h e same f o r h o u s i n g p r i c e s and r e n t s . The f i n a l s e c t i o n d i s c u s s e d t h e i m p l i -c a t i o n s o f t h e b i - s e c t o r a l model and compared t h e i n f o r m a t i o n i t p r o v i d e d w i t h t h a t p r o v i d e d by more a g g r e g a t i v e m o d e l s . S m i t h d i s a g g r e g a t e d t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t i n t o two b a s i c s e c t o r s \u2014 t h e s i n g l e ( p r i m a r i l y owner o c c u p a n c y ) d w e l l i n g s e c t o r 2 3 and t h e m u l t i p l e ( p r i m a r i l y r e n t a l o c c u p a n c y ) d w e l l i n g s e c t o r \u2014 and a t t e m p t e d t o examine t h e b e h a v i o u r o f t h e p a r t i c i p a n t s i n e a c h o f t h e s e s e c t o r s s e p a r a t e l y . The o v e r - a l l s t r u c t u r e o f t h e model u n d e r l y i n g t h e work, was d e s c r i b e d as a s t o c k - f l o w model i n w h i c h t h e volume o f h o u s i n g s t a r t s depended upon a c o m p a r i s o n o f h o u s i n g p r i c e s o r r e n t s and v a c a n c y r a t e s w i t h c o n s t r u c t i o n , l a n d and f i n a n c i n g c o s t s , and t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f p u b l i c and p r i v a t e m o r t g a g e c r e d i t . P r i c e s , r e n t s , and v a c a n c y r a t e s were c o n s i d e r -ed d e t e r m i n e d by t h e demand f o r , and s u p p l y o f , e a c h t y p e o f h o u s i n g accommodation. S m i t h a r g u e d t h a t t h e demand f o r s i n g l e d w e l l i n g s d e pended upon t h e p r i c e and c a r r y i n g c o s t s o f t h i s f o r m o f accommodation compared w i t h t h e r e n t f o r a l t e r n a t i v e f o r m s o f accommodation and t h e p r i c e o f n o n - h o u s i n g goods and s e r v i c e s , p e rmanent r e a l d i s p o s a b l e income, d e m o g r a p h i c f a c t o r s , and t h e c o s t and a v a i l a b i l i t y o f m o r t g a g e c r e d i t . The demand f o r r e n t a l a ccommodation was c o n s i d e r e d d e p e n d e n t upon t h e s e same v a r i a b l e s , e x c e p t t h a t r e n t s , h o u s i n g p r i c e s and t h e c o s t and a v a i l a b i l i t y o f m o r t g a g e c r e d i t e x e r t t h e o p p o s i t e i n f l u e n c e upon demand i n t h i s s e c t o r . The S m i t h model p r o v i d e d f o r s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t r a t i o n i n g w i t h t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f p r i v a t e m o r t g a g e c r e d i t i n d i c a t e d by t h e d i f f e r e n t i a l between t h e a v e r a g e mortgage r a t e and bonds l a g g e d one p e r i o d . P u b l i c c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y was i n d i c a t e d b y Canada M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n d i r e c t m o r t g a g e a p p r o v a l s ( i n c o n s t a n t d o l l a r s ) i n t h e c u r r e n t p r e v i o u s p e r i o d , and a dummy v a r i a b l e t o p r o v i d e f o r a s p e c i f i c h o u s e - b u i l d i n g i n c e n t i v e p r o -gramme . H a v i n g s p e c i f i e d t h e m o d e l s , S m i t h made a number o f \" s l i g h t m o d i f i c a t i o n s \" b e f o r e t h e model was s t a t i s t i c a l l y e s t i m a t e d i n 24 v i e w o f \" d a t a l i m i t a t i o n s and i n s t i t u t i o n a l c o n s i d e r a t i o n s \" . The v a c a n c y v a r i a b l e was d e l e t e d and dummy v a r i a b l e s were i n t r o d u c e d f o r s e a s o n a l v a r i a t i o n s . The a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s o f t h e model was t e s t e d by f i t t i n g o r d i n a r y and t w o - s t a g e l e a s t s q u a r e r e g r e s s i o n s t o q u a r t e r l y d a t a o v e r t h e 1954 t o 1965 p e r i o d . The r e g r e s s i o n s r e p o r t e d l y \" t e n d t o c o n f i r m t h e a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s \" o f t h e m o d e l s and \" a c c e n t u a t e t h e d i s t i n c t i o n s between t h e s i n g l e and m u l t i p l e d w e l l i n g s e c t o r s \" . I n t h e s i n g l e s r e g r e s s i o n b o t h t h e c o s t and a v a i l a b i l i t y o f p r i v a t e m o r t g a g e c r e d i t v a r i a b l e s were f o u n d t o e x e r t a h i g h l y s i g n i f i c a n t i n f l u e n c e upon t h e volume o f h o u s i n g s t a r t s . The T r i n h M o d e l The T r i n h e c o n o m e t r i c model w o u l d a p p e a r t o be d e s i g n e d p r i m a r i l y f o r f o r e c a s t i n g t h e i m p l i c a t i o n s o f v a r i o u s F e d e r a l Government p o l i c i e s on a n n u a l C a n a d i a n h o u s i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n o f 5 s i n g l e and m u l t i p l e d w e l l i n g s . The s t a t e d i n t e n t i o n o f t h e model was t o i n t e g r a t e v a r i a b l e s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h s h o r t - r u n and l o n g - t e r m f l u c t u a t i o n s i n h o u s i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n . A l t h o u g h demand v a r i a b l e s s u c h as t h e number o f f a m i l i e s and h o u s i n g s t o c k were p r e s e n t i n t h e m o d e l , f i n a n c i a l v a r i a b l e s s u c h as i n t e r e s t r a t e s and t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f m o r t g a g e f u n d s p l a y e d a m a j o r r o l e i n d e t e r m i n i n g h o u s i n g s t a r t s . An u n u s u a l f e a t u r e o f t h e model was t h a t h o u s e h o l d f o r m a t i o n was c o n s i d e r e d endogenous, and t h a t i t was a f u n c t i o n o f , among o t h e r e c o n o m i c and d e m o g r a p h i c v a r i a b l e s , t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f h o u s i n g . The s i n g l e s t a r t s model was b a s e d on t h e p r e m i s e t h a t s t a r t s were d e t e r m i n e d by t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f m o r t g a g e c r e d i t , t h e a v e r a g e m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e , t h e r a t i o o f t h e s t o c k o f 2 5 s i n g l e h o u s e s t o t h e number o f f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s , and t h e r a t i o o f f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s t o t o t a l h o u s e h o l d s . The l a t t e r v a r i a b l e was i n c l u d e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e m a j o r i t y o f f a m i l i e s h a d a c l e a r p r e f e r e n c e f o r t h i s t y p e o f h o u s i n g . The m u l t i p l e h o u s i n g s t a r t s model had a s i m i l a r s p e c i f i c a t i o n e x c e p t t h a t t h e s t o c k o f h o u s i n g u n i t s and n o n - f a m i l y h o u s e h o l d s were s p e c i f i e d s e p a r a t e l y and a r e n t - t o - h o u s e p r i c e r a t i o was i n t r o -d u c e d t o c a p t u r e t h e r e l a t i v e p r i c e o f r e n t i n g i n s t e a d o f t h e m o r t g a g e r a t e as i n t h e s i n g l e s t a r t s e q u a t i o n . The a v a i l a b i l i t y o f m o r t g a g e c r e d i t has b e e n i n d i c a t e d by t h e a c t u a l t o t a l m o r t g a g e a p p r o v a l s i n d o l l a r s f r o m t h e p r i v a t e and p u b l i c s o u r c e s r e l a t i v e t o a h o u s i n g p r i c e i n d e x . B e c a u s e t h e a c t u a l amount o f m o r t g a g e a p p r o v a l s r e p r e s e n t e d b o t h t h e amount o f f u n d s s u p p l i e d and demanded, c r e d i t r a t i o n i n g was i n -h e r e n t l y i n c l u d e d . However, t h e i n d e p e n d e n t a f f e c t o f a change i n t h e s u p p l y o f c r e d i t c a n n o t be i s o l a t e d , and t h e r e may be d i f f i c u l t i e s i n e s t i m a t i n g t h e e q u a t i o n b e c a u s e o f t h e l a c k o f i n d e p e n d e n c e between m o r t g a g e a p p r o v a l s and t h e r e m a i n i n g d e t e r -m i n i n g v a r i a b l e s . The m o d e l s were e v a l u a t e d b y c o m p a r i n g t h e a c t u a l v a l u e s w i t h t h e s i m u l a t e d v a l u e s . The r e s u l t s o f t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s m o d e l s were c o n s i d e r e d f a i r l y good e x c e p t t h e model f o r t h e m u l t i p l e h o u s i n g u n i t s t a r t s d i d n o t p e r f o r m as w e l l as t h e model f o r s i n g l e h o u s i n g u n i t s t a r t s . Comments on P r e v i o u s M o d e l s A number o f i s s u e s and p r o b l e m s have b e e n n o t e d p e r t a i n i n g t o p r e v i o u s s t u d i e s o f t h e r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n s e c t o r o f t h e economy, w h i c h i n c l u d e t h e f o l l o w i n g : 1. I n p r e v i o u s work, t h e r e has been a t o t a l r e l i a n c e on f a c t o r s i n f l u e n c i n g demand and many m o d e l s have n o t c a p t u r e d , i n an a d e q u a t e way, t h e i n t e r a c t i o n between t h e h o u s i n g and m o r t g age m a r k e t s . However, t o e x p l a i n s h o r t - r u n f l u c t u a t i o n s i n c o n s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t y on a m o n t h l y o r q u a r t e r l y b a s i s , v a r i a t i o n s i n m o r t g a g e c r e d i t s u p p l y , b u i l d e r s ' i n v e n t o r i e s , and o t h e r s u p p l y v a r i a b l e s , may o f f e r more e x p l a n -a t o r y s i g n i f i c a n c e t h a n demand d e t e r m i n i n g v a r i a b l e s as demography and t a s t e , w h i c h change r e l a t i v e l y 7 l i t t l e i n t h e s h o r t - r u n . 2. The b a s i c demand and s u p p l y c o n d i t i o n s w i t h r e s p e c t t o c r e d i t and o t h e r r e l e v a n t f a c t o r s o f t h e m a r k e t have n o t been w e l l s p e c i f i e d . The f r e q u e n t u s e o f p r o x i e s r a t h e r t h a n d i r e c t d a t a , t h e l a c k o f t h e r e c o g n i t i o n o f t h e e c o n o m i c r o l e s o f v a r i a b l e s s u c h as s t a r t s , demand f l o w o f h o u s i n g u n i t s , c o m p l e t i o n s , and t h e i n v e n t o r y u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n have p r e s e n t e d p r o b l e m s . ^ 3. The s t a t e o f s t a t i s t i c a l d a t a on h o u s i n g l e f t much t o be d e s i r e d w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e q u a l i t y o f a v a i l a b l e 9 s e r i e s and t o t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f i m p o r t a n t s e r i e s . 4. T h e r e has b e e n an a b s e n c e o f s e p a r a t e a n a l y s i s o f h o u s i n g s u b m a r k e t s w h i c h may d i f f e r c o n s i d e r a b l y w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e i n f l u e n c e o f d i f f e r e n t i n s t i t u t i o n a l f a c t o r s and t h e b e h a v i o u r o f p a r t i c i p a n t s i n t h e s u b -m a r k e t s . I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e p r o b l e m s n o t e d above, i t w o u l d a p p e a r t h a t t h e n a t i o n a l f o c u s i n p r e v i o u s C a n a d i a n s t u d i e s has n o t 2 7 i n c o r p o r a t e d t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f r e g i o n a l a n a l y s i s i n h o u s i n g c o n -s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t i e s . The g e o g r a p h i c i m m o b i l i t y o f o u t p u t com-b i n e d w i t h t h e h e t e r o g e n e o u s s o c i o e c o n o m i c c o n d i t i o n s o f v a r i o u s r e g i o n s i s bound t o p r o d u c e v a r y i n g d e g r e e s and p a t t e r n s o f c y c l i c a l v a r i a t i o n s , and f o r t h i s r e a s o n a t t e n t i o n s h o u l d be p l a c e d i n a n a l y z i n g i d e n t i f i a b l e g e o g r a p h i c s u b m a r k e t s . 1 1 F u r t h e r m o r e , p r e v i o u s a t t e m p t s t o d i s a g g r e g a t e t h e m a r k e t i n t o h o u s i n g t y p e s ( s i n g l e \/ m u l t i p l e ) have n o t a p p e a r e d t o r e c o g n i z e t h e c l o s e s u b s t i t u t i o n o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d d w e l l i n g u n i t s ( i . e . s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d , d o u b l e s and row h o u s i n g ) . I t w o u l d a l s o a p p e a r t h a t t h e e m p h a s i s upon t h e s e l e c t i o n o f d e t e r m i n i n g v a r i a b l e s t h a t p r o v i d e d s u c c e s s i n t r a c k i n g f l u c t u a t i o n s i n h o u s i n g s t a r t s o v e r s h a d o w e d t h e d i f f i c u l t y o f i n t e r p r e t i n g t h e e s t i m a t e d c o -e f f i c i e n t s . 28 F o o t n o t e s \"''Sherman J . M a i s e l , \"A T h e o r y o f F l u c t u a t i o n s i n R e s i d e n -t i a l C o n s t r u c t i o n S t a r t s \" , The A m e r i c a n E c o n o m i c Review, V o l . L I I I ( J u n e , 1 9 6 3 ) , pp. 359-379. 2 D a v i d S. Huang, \"A S t u d y o f t h e M a r k e t f o r New H o u s i n g U n i t s \" , P r o c e e d i n g s o f t h e B u s i n e s s and E c o n o m i c S t a t i s t i c s  S e c t i o n o f t h e A m e r i c a n S t a t i s t i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n , ( 1 9 6 9 ) , pp. 702-712. 3 Ray C. F a i r and Dwight M. J a f f e e , \"Methods o f E s t i m a t i o n f o r M a r k e t s i n D i s e q u i l i b r i u m \" , E c o n o m e t r i c a , V o l . 40, No. 3 (May, 1 9 7 2 ) , pp. 497-514. 4 L a w r e n c e B. S m i t h , \"A B i - S e c t o r a l H o u s i n g M a r k e t M o d e l \" , The C a n d i a n J o u r n a l o f E c o n o m i c s , No. 4 (November, 1 9 6 9 ) , pp. 537-569. 5 Anh T r i n h , \"An A n n u a l E c o n o m e t r i c M o d e l o f C a n a d i a n H o u s i n g and M o r t g a g e M a r k e t s \" , W o r k i n g P a p e r No. 76-3 (Ottawa: M a r k e t and I n d u s t r y A n a l y s i s D i v i s i o n , C e n t r a l M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n , 1 9 7 6 ) . ^Ray C. F a i r , \" D i s e q u i l b r i u m i n H o u s i n g M o d e l s \" , The J o u r n a l o f F i n a n c e , V o l . 27 (May, 1 9 7 2 ) , p.207. p. 702 -i Huang, \"A S t u d y o f t h e M a r k e t f o r New H o u s i n g U n i t s \" , I b i d . , p. 702. 9 I b i d . , p. 702. 1 0 S m i t h , \"A B i - S e c t o r a l H o u s i n g M a r k e t M o d e l \" , p. 558. 1 1 J o s e p h H. Chung, C y c l i c a l I n s t a b i l i t y i n R e s i d e n t i a l  C o n s t r u c t i o n i n Canada (Ottawa: E c o n o m i c C o u n c i l o f Canada, 1976), p. 7. CHAPTER IV METROPOLITAN AREA HOUSING MARKET MODEL O b j e c t i v e I n v i e w o f t h e d i s c u s s i o n on t h e h o u s i n g - m o r t g a g e m a r k e t and t h e r e v i e w o f p r e v i o u s s t u d e i s , an a t t e m p t has been made t o d e v e l o p a model o f t h e s u p p l y o f new g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g ( i . e . s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d , d o u b l e s , and rowhouses) w i t h i n a l i m i t e d h o u s i n g m a r k e t a r e a ( e n c o m p a s s i n g a s i n g l e m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a ) and t o i n -c o r p o r a t e t h e p r o f i t and n o n - p r o f i t m o t i v e s o f t h e i n i t i a t o r s o f h o u s i n g s t a r t s , I n a d d i t i o n , t h e b a s i c model has been d e s i g n e d t o p e r m i t t h e c o m p a r i s o n on an a p p r o a c h where c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y (as w e l l as p r i c e ) may i n d u c e and c u r t a i l t h e demand f o r h o u s i n g , and an a p p r o a c h where c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y has an a s y m m e t r i c e f f e c t . T h e r e f o r e , i t h a s been t h e o b j e c t i v e t o d e t e r m i n e t h e b e s t e x p r e s -s i o n and e s t i m a t e o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e number o f h o u s -i n g s t a r t s and t h e e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e s , a s w e l l as t o d e t e r m i n e t h e e f f e c t o f n o n - p r i c e c r e d i t t e r m s ( i . e . c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y ) . B a s i c H o u s i n g S t a r t s M o d e l The h o u s i n g s t a r t s p a r a d i g m has a t t e m p t e d t o model t h e s u p -p l y s i d e o f t h e new h o u s i n g m a r k e t , and t h e r e f o r e , t h e b e h a v i o u r o f b u i l d e r s and d e v e l o p e r s b a s e d on t h e i r m o t i v a t i o n s and c o n -s t r a i n t s upon a c t i v i t y . H o u s i n g u n i t s t a r t s a r e m o t i v a t e d by s p e c u l a t i v e b u s i n e s s p r o f i t s , t h e r e q u i r e m e n t s f o r c u s t o m - b u i l t homes, and t h e p e r c e i v e d s o c i a l n eeds o f n o n - p r o f i t o r g a n i z a t i o n s . 2 9 30 I n t h i s m o d e l, custom-made h o u s e s have been c o n s i d e r e d a f u n c t i o n o f t h e same v a r i a b l e s t h a t g o v e r n t h e p r o f i t a b l e n e s s o f s p e c u l a t o r h o u s i n g ; however, h o u s i n g u n i t s i n i t i a t e d by n o n - p r o f i t o r g a n i z a -t i o n s f o r \" p u b l i c h o u s i n g \" have been c o n s i d e r e d d e t e r m i n e d e x o g e n o u s l y . I t h as been h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t t h e number o f h o u s i n g s t a r t s may be a p p r o x i m a t e d by a p a r t i a l a d j u s t m e n t model where t h e d e s i r e d change i n t h e number o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d d w e l l i n g s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n ( A l U C F * ) e q u a l s t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e d e s i r e d number o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n (IUCF*) and t h e o p e n i n g l e v e l o f s u c h an i n v e n t o r y ( I U C F _ t ) a s shown i n e x p r e s s i o n 4.1:\"'\" IUCF* = IUCF* - I U C F _ t 4.1 Ba s e d on t h e i d e n t i t y t h a t t h e change i n t h e number o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n ( A l U C F ) e q u a l s t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e number o f u n i t s t a r t s (PSTS) and c o m p l e t i o n s (COMP) as shown i n e x p r e s s i o n 4.2, t h e d e s i r e d change i n t h e number o f g r o u n d o r i e n t e d d w e l l i n g s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n ( A l U C F * ) h as been hypo-t h e s i z e d t o e q u a l t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e d e s i r e d number o f s t a r t s (PSTS*) and t h e number o f c o m p l e t i o n s (COMP);as shown i n e x p r e s s i o n 4.3: IUCF = PSTS - COMP 4.2 IUCF* = PSTS* - COMP 4.3 A s s u m i n g t h a t t h e a c t u a l number o f d w e l l i n g s t a r t s r e s p o n d s p r o p o r t i o n a l l y t o t h e d e s i r e d number o f d w e l l i n g s t a r t s , t h e a c t u a l number o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d d w e l l i n g s t a r t s (PSTS) may be e x p r e s s e d a s a f u n c t i o n o f t h e d e s i r e d number o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n ( I U C F * ) , t h e o p e n i n g l e v e l o f s u c h an i n v e n t o r y 31 ( I U C F _ t ) , and t h e number o f c o m p l e t i o n s (COMP) as shown i n e x p r e s s i o n 4.4: PSTS = B*(IUCF*) - B \u00ab ( I U C F _ t ) + B \u00ab ( C O M P ) 4.4 \"B\" i s t h e r e g r e s s i o n c o e f f i c i e n t The d e s i r e d number o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d d w e l l i n g s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n (IUCF*) has b e en e s t i m a t e d b a s e d on t h e p r e m i s e t h a t g i v e n t h e l e v e l o f demand f o r new h o u s i n g u n i t s t h e r e p r o b a b l y w o u l d be a n o r m a l l e v e l o f h o u s i n g i n v e n t o r y u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n w h i c h b u i l d e r s w o u l d want t o c a r r y . T h i s n o r m a l l e v e l o f i n v e n t o r y may be a f f e c t e d by s u c h s h o r t - t e r m c o n s i d e r a t i o n s d e s i r e d l e v e l o f i n v e s t m e n t , t h e i n v e s t m e n t r e q u i r e d p e r u n i t , and c o n s t r a i n t s upon b e h a v i o u r . The d e s i r e d l e v e l ' o f i n v e s t m e n t w o u l d depend upon t h e e x p e c t e d p r o f i t a b i l i t y o f l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t w h i c h stems f r o m t h e p o t e n t i a l n e t c a s h f l o w s and t h e e x p e c t a t i o n s o f r e a l i z i n g p o t e n t i a l r a t e s o f r e t u r n . T h e r e f o r e , I t h a s b e en assumed t h a t t h e p o t e n t i a l d e s i r e d number o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d d w e l l i n g u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n d e pended upon t h e p o t e n t i a l p r o f i t a b i l i t y o f d e v e l o p i n g l a n d i n h o u s e s r e l a t i v e t o t h e i n v e s t m e n t r e q u i r e d PF p e r u n i t (^jj) \u2022 I t has b e en n o t e d t h a t t h e p r o f i t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d d w e l l i n g s was d e r i v e d p r i m a r i l y 2 f r o m t h e r e t u r n s t o s c a r c i t y f o r d e v e l o p e d l a n d . T h e r e f o r e , t h e e x p e c t a t i o n s o f o b t a i n i n g p o t e n t i a l l e v e l s o f p r o f i t a b l e n e s s w o u l d depend upon t h e p r e d i c t e d v a l u e o f h o u s i n g r e l a t i v e t o e x p e n d i t u r e s and t h e t i m e r e q u i r e d t o d e v e l o p and m a r k e t a d w e l l -3 i n g u n i t . The e x p e c t a t i o n and c a p a c i t y o f c o n s t r u c t i n g a g r o u n d 32 o r i e n t e d d w e l l i n g u n i t , w i t h i n a g i v e n t i m e p e r i o d , has been assumed t o be i n v e r s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h e m a g n i t u d e o f p r e v a i l i n g s t r i k e s i n t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n i n d u s t r y (STRIKE) and s e a s o n a l v a r i a -t i o n s i n w e a t h e r s e v e r i t y and h o l i d a y s (SPRING, SUMMER, F A L L , WINTER = SSFW). F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e e x p e c t a t i o n and p r o b a b i l i t y o f o b t a i n i n g a s a l e ( o r r e n t e r ) o f a g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d d w e l l i n g u n i t , w i t h i n a g i v e n t i m e p e r i o d , h a s b e e n assumed t o be i n v e r s e l y r e l a t e d t o t h e c o m p e t i t i o n f r o m t h e s u r p l u s s t o c k o f new h o u s e s , w h i c h has been i n d i c a t e d by t h e number o f u n o c c u p i e d new g r o u n d -o r i e n t e d d w e l l i n g s ( V C ) , and t o t h e p r e v a i l i n g s e v e r i t y i n t h e p r i c e and a v a i l a b i l i t y o f mortgage c r e d i t (CRED), w h i c h i n d i c a t e s t h e c o s t s and d i f f i c u l t y t o home b u y e r s t o o b t a i n b o r r o w e d f u n d s and t o a f f o r d d e b t commitments. I n v i e w o f t h e above, t h e d e s i r e d number o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d d w e l l i n g s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n (IUCF*) has be e n s p e c i f i e d b a s e d on e x p r e s s i o n 4 . 5 : PF IUCF* = f ( ^ j # VC, STRIKE, CRED, SSFW) 4 . 5 By c o m b i n i n g e x p r e s s i o n s 4 . 4 and 4 . 5 t h e number o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s h as been s p e c i f i e d b a s e d on e x p r e s s i o n 4 . 6 : PSTS = B f (|\u00b1j, VC, STRIKE, CRED, SSFW) - B ( I U C F _ t ~ COMP) 4 . 6 A l t e r n a t i v e M o d e l As a r g u e d by F a i r and J a f f e e , t h e o b s e r v e d q u a n t i t y o f h o u s i n g s t a r t s may n o t s a t i s f y b o t h t h e demand f o r h o u s i n g s c h e d u l e and t h e s u p p l y o f h o u s i n g t h e mortgage m a r k e t w o u l d be 4 w i l l i n g t o f i n a n c e s c h e d u l e . P e r s u a n t t o t h e t h e o r y o f t h e a s y m m e t r i c e f f e c t o f t h e mortgage m a r k e t on t h e n a t i o n a l h o u s i n g m a r k e t , i t a l t e r n a t i v e l y has been h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t g i v e n t h e 33 demand f o r h o u s i n g a t a p r e v a i l i n g i n t e r e s t r a t e , c h a n g e s i n n o n - p r i c e c r e d i t t e r m s may have a one d i m e n s i o n a l e f f e c t on t h e amount o f h o u s i n g d e v e l o p m e n t . I n v i e w o f t h e a b o v e , i t w o u l d be n e c e s s a r y t o i d e n t i f y t h o s e p e r i o d s when n o n - p r i c e c r e d i t t e r m s have been u s e d t o r a t i o n t h e n a t i o n a l s u p p l y o f a v a i l a b l e m o r t -gage f u n d s t o a l l l o c a l m a r k e t s . To t e s t t h e h y p o t h e s i s , t h e g e n e r a l a p p r o a c h t o t h e p r o b -l e m h a s b e e n t o t r y t o s e p a r a t e t h e t i m e s e r i e s sample i n t o demand and s u p p l y r e g i m e s s u c h t h a t e a c h s c h e d u l e may be a p p r o p r i a t e l y f i t t e d a g a i n s t t h e o b s e r v e d q u a n t i t y f o r t h e sample p o i n t s f a l l -i n g w i t h i n i t s r e g i m e . A n o t h e r a p p r o a c h has been t o t r y t o a d -j u s t t h e o b s e r v e d q u a n t i t y f o r t h e e f f e c t s o f r a t i o n i n g and t h e n f i t b o t h s c h e d u l e s o v e r t h e e n t i r e sample p e r i o d u s i n g t h e a d -5 j u s t e d q u a n t i t y . I n t h i s p a p e r , t h e c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e has b e e n b a s e d on an i n d i c a t o r o f t h e p r i c e and a v a i l a b i l i t y o f c r e d i t p r o v i d e d by p r i v a t e i n s t i t u t i o n a l l e n d e r s and by t h e government f o r p r o f i t m o t i v a t e d h o u s i n g . F u r t h e r m o r e , t o t e s t t h e hypo-t h e s i s o f t h e a s y m m e t r i c e f f e c t o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y , an a t t e m p t was made t o s u p p r e s s t h e v a l u e s o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y , i n t h e a s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e (NCRED), when i t a p p e a r e d t h a t n o n - p r i c e c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s were e a s i e r t h a n a v e r a g e . S u p p l e m e n t a r y M o d e l s  Endogenous V a r i a b l e s : I n o r d e r t o a t t e m p t t o d e t e r m i n e c o n s i s t e n t e s t i m a t e s o f c o e f f i c i e n t s i n t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s m o d e l , i t was n e c e s s a r y t o i d e n t i f y t h e endogneous v a r i a b l e s i n t h e m o d e l . F u r t h e r m o r e , i t was n e c e s s a r y t o s p e c i f y e a c h endogenous v a r i a b l e as a s i m p l e l i n e a r f u n c t i o n i n r e d u c e d f o r m t o p r o v i d e e v i d e n c e 34 o f t h e e n d o g e n i t y o f t h e s e v a r i a b l e s i n t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s model and t o i d e n t i f y a d d i t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s r e q u i r e d t o s u b s t i t u t e e xogenous v a r i a b l e s , f o r t h e endogenous v a r i a b l e s , when e s t i m a t -i n g t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s m o d e l . The m o d i f i e d p o t e n t i a l p r o f i t v a r i a b l e ( i . e . , t h e p o t e n t i a l d e s i r e d l e v e l o f i n v e s t m e n t r e l a t i v e t o t h e i n v e s t m e n t r e q u i r e d PF p e r u n i t ^ y ) , t h e i n v e n t o r y o f u n o c c u p i e d new h o u s e s (VC), as w e l l as t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e numbers o f h o u s i n g u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n i n t h e p r e v i o u s p e r i o d and t h e number o f c o m p l e t i o n s (IUCF_^_- COMP) have been c o n s i d e r e d endogenous b e c a u s e o f t h e common d e p e n d e n c e upon c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s , o r t h e number o f house c o m p l e t i o n s . M o d i f i e d P o t e n t i a l P r o f i t V a r i a b l e : The m o d i f i e d p o t e n t i a l p r o f i t PF v a r i a b l e ( j g ) \/ w h i c h e x p r e s s e s t h e p o t e n t i a l d e s i r e d l e v e l o f i n v e s t m e n t r e l a t i v e t o t h e i n v e s t m e n t r e q u i r e d p e r u n i t , has been i n d i c a t e d by t h e r a t i o o f t h e p o t e n t i a l p r o f i t a b i l i t y o f d e v e l o p -i n g l a n d (PF) and t h e i n v e s t m e n t r e q u i r e d p e r u n i t ( I U ) . The p o t e n t i a l p r o f i t a b i l i t y o f d e v e l o p i n g l a n d w o u l d depend upon t h e p o t e n t i a l new h o u s e p r i c e s r e l a t i v e t o b e f o r e t a x d e v e l o p m e n t and m a r k e t i n g c o s t s , c o r p o r a t e income t a x e s , as w e l l a s t h e r e q u i r e d r a t e o f r e t u r n . S i n c e h o u s e p r i c e s , d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s , and t h e r e q u i r e d r a t e o f r e t u r n w o u l d be a f f e c t e d by p r e v a i l i n g i n t e r e s t PF r a t e s , t h e m o d i f i e d p o t e n t i a l p r o f i t v a r i a b l e ( j y ) \u2014 d i s c u s s e d i n CHAPTER V \u2014 h a s been a p p r o x i m a t e d by a s i m p l e l i n e a r f u n c t i o n o f HP new house p r i c e s r e l a t i v e t o b e f o r e t a x c o s t s (^-) , t h e c o r p o r a t e income t a x r a t e ( T R ) \u2014 t o i n d i c a t e f l u c t u a t i o n s i n income t a x e s p e r d o l l a r o f n e t i n c o m e \u2014 , and t h e i n v e s t m e n t r e q u i r e d p e r u n i t ( I U ) , a s shown i n e x p r e s s i o n 4.7: 3 5 | | = f ( | \u00a7 r TR, IU) 4.7 HP However, t h e v a r i a b l e house p r i c e s t o b e f o r e t a x c o s t s (^) w o u l d be endogenous t o t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s m odel b e c a u s e o f t h e p r e s e n c e o f t h e c r e d i t c o n d i t o n s v a r i a b l e . T h e r e f o r e , t h e p r i m a r y v a r i -a b l e s t h a t d e t e r m i n e t h e p r i c e o f new h o u s e s r e l a t i v e t o b e f o r e HP t a x c o s t s (J^Q) have a l s o been i d e n t i f i e d , as d i s c u s s e d b e l o w . House P r i c e s R e l a t i v e t o B e f o r e Tax C o s t s : The s e l l i n g p r i c e o f new h o u s e s w o u l d d e p e n d upon t h e p r i c e t h a t b u y e r s w o u l d be w i l l -i n g t o s p e n d as w e l l as t h e p r i c e t h a t s u p p l i e r s o f new h o u s i n g w o u l d be w i l l i n g t o a c c e p t . A l t h o u g h d e v e l o p e r - b u i l d e r s w o u l d be r e l u c t a n t t o s e l l h o u s e s a t p r i c e s t h a t d i d n o t r e c o v e r t h e i r c o s t s ( i n c l u d i n g n o r m a l p r o f i t s ) , i t h a s been assumed t h a t t h e r a t i o o f s e l l i n g p r i c e s t o c o s t s f o r new h o u s e s has b e e n p r i m a r i l y demand d e t e r m i n e d . T h i s a s s u m p t i o n a p p e a r s t o be r e a s o n a b l e b e c a u s e any m a r k e t i n g d e l a y w o u l d i n c r e a s e t h e s u p p l i e r s ' h o l d i n g and o p p o r t u n i t y c o s t s , and b e c a u s e t h e a b i l i t y t o c o n t r o l t h e s u p p l y o f h o u s i n g w o u l d be v e r y l i m i t e d . I t w o u l d be e x p e c t e d t h a t s u s t a i n e d i n c r e a s e s i n t h e s i z e o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n , t h a t f r o m h o u s e h o l d s , r e l a t i v e t o a d d i t i o n s t o t h e s t o c k o f h o u s i n g w o u l d l i k e l y i n c r e a s e t h e demand f o r h o u s i n g r e l a t i v e t o t h e s u p p l y and t h e r e f o r e i n c r e a s e t h e s e l l i n g p r i c e o f h o u s e s . However, i n t h e s h o r t - t e r m , t h e p o p u l a t i o n r e l a t i v e t o t h e s t o c k o f h o u s e s w o u l d change v e r y l i t t l e ; t h e r e f o r e , t h e change i n t h e s e l l i n g p r i c e o f new h o u s e s r e l a t i v e t o d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s w o u l d depend p r i m a r i l y upon t h e change i n t h e p u r c h a s i n g power o f t h e l o c a l p o p u l a t i o n , r e l a t i v e t o d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s . I n v i e w o f t h e above, i t has been h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t t h e 36 change i n t h e s e l l i n g p r i c e o f new h o u s e s r e l a t i v e t o b e f o r e t a x HP c o s t s d u r i n g d e v e l o p m e n t ( A ^ j ) w o u l d be a f u n c t i o n o f t h e change i n t h e p o p u l a t i o n , t h a t f o r m h o u s e h o l d s , r e l a t i v e t o t h e s t o c k o f h o u s e s (CHCW), t h e change i n t h e d i s p o s a b l e income o f t h e p o p u l a -)xo: AC t i o n r e l a t i v e t o d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s ( A0 ^ * * ) > and p r e v a i l i n g c r e d i t NCRED c o n d i t i o n s ( C R E D ) t h a t d e t e r m i n e t h e c o s t and a v a i l a b i l i t y o f 7 m o r t g a g e f u n d s . T h e r e f o r e , u s i n g t h e g e n e r a l i d e n t i t y t h a t p r e v a i l i n g p r i c e s e q u a l t h e p r i c e i n t h e p r e c e d i n g p e r i o d p l u s any s u b s e q u e n t c h a n g e , t h e s e l l i n g p r i c e o f new h o u s e s r e l a t i v e t o d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s h as been e s t i m a t e d b a s e d on t h e f u n c t i o n shown g i n e x p r e s s i o n 4.8: <i t^<CHCW, N S I n v e n t o r y o f U n o c c u p i e d New H o u s e s : I t has been h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t g i v e n a l e v e l o f demand f o r new h o u s i n g u n i t s t h e r e p r o b a b l y w o u l d be a n o r m a l l e v e l o f u n s o l d , new h o u s e s . T h i s s u p p l y w o u l d l i k e l y r e p r e s e n t r e c e n t c o m p l e t i o n s s i n c e i n v e n t o r y s i z e s . w o u l d be a d j u s t e d as c h a n g e s i n demand ( a v e r a g e l e v e l s o f c o n s u m p t i o n ) a d j u s t e d s l o w l y . O ver t h e l o n g - t e r m , t h e r e f o r e , i t m i g h t be e x p e c t e d t h a t as t h e l e v e l o f demand f o r new h o u s i n g u n i t s i n -c r e a s e d s u p p l i e r s w o u l d i n c r e a s e t h e l e v e l o f p r o d u c t i o n and have l a r g e r i n v e n t o r i e s o f u n s o l d ( u n r e n t e d ) n e w l y c o m p l e t e d h o u s e s . However, i n t h e s h o r t - t e r m f l u c t u a t i o n s i n t h e demand f o r and s u p p l y o f new h o u s e s w o u l d l i k e l y r e s u l t i n f l u c t u a t i n g i n v e n -t o r i e s . I n v i e w o f t h e above i t has been assumed t h a t t h e change i n t h e i n v e n t o r y o f u n o c c u p i e d hew h o u s e s (AVC) depends upon t h e a d d i t i o n a l s u p p l y o f new h o u s e s ( c o m p l e t i o n s ) r e l a t i v e t o t h e 37 q u a n t i t y demanded. Whereas t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e s u p p l y and demand may r e f l e c t t h e s u s t a i n e d s i z e o f t h e change i n t h e number o f u n s o l d h o u s e s , t h e r a t i o may i n d i c a t e how f a s t c o m p l e -t i o n s w i t h i n a p e r i o d o f t i m e w o u l d be s u c c e s s f u l l y m a r k e t e d . A l t h o u g h t h e i n c r e a s e i n t h e s u p p l y o f new g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s e s w o u l d e q u a l t h e number o f c o m p l e t i o n s (COMP), t h e q u a n t i t y o f new h o u s e s demanded w o u l d depend upon t h e s i z e o f t h e p o p u l a -t i o n t h a t f o r m s h o u s e h o l d s r e l a t i v e t o t h e i n i t i a l s t o c k o f NCRED h o u s e s (CW), t h e c o s t and a v a i l a b i l i t y o f m o r t g a g e f u n d s ( C R E D ) and s e a s o n a l c o n s u m p t i o n p r e f e r e n c e s (SSFW). T h e r e f o r e , t h e i n v e n t o r y o f u n s o l d ( u n r e n t e d ) new g r o u n d -o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g u n i t s h a s b e e n e s t i m a t e d by a s i m p l e l i n e a r f u n c t i o n a s shown i n e x p r e s s i o n 4.9: _ COMP NCRED VC - V C _ t + f ( \" c w - r CRED' S S F W ) 4 \" 9 An O v e r v i e w o f t h e H o u s i n g M a r k e t M o d e l The e s s e n t i a l f e a t u r e s o f t h e l o c a l h o u s i n g m a r k e t model a r e i l l u s t r a t e d i n F i g u r e 1. The model c o n t a i n s 23 exogenous v a r i a b l e s , some o f w h i c h have been combined t o p r o v i d e a t o t a l o f 12 d i f f e r e n t d e t e r m i n i n g v a r i a b l e s . T h e s e 12 v a r i a b l e s c o n s i s t o f l o c a l h o u s i n g , p o p u l a t i o n , and p r i c e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s h i s t o r i c -a l l y p r e d e t e r m i n e d ( i n c l u d i n g l a g g e d v a l u e s o f endogenous v a r i -a b l e s ) , n a t i o n a l e c o n o m i c c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s assumed d e t e r m i n e d i n -d e p e n d e n t o f a s i n g l e l o c a l economy, and t h e p r e v a i l i n g l o c a l l a b o u r and s e a s o n a l c o n d i t i o n s \u2014 a s s u m e d d e t e r m i n e d i n d e p e n d e n t l y . As n o t e d p r e v i o u s l y , t h e p r i n c i p a l endogenous v a r i a b l e s i n c l u d e t h e number o f p r o f i t m o t i v a t e d and c u s t o m made g r o u n d -o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s ( P S T S ) , t h e m o d i f i e d p o t e n t i a l p r o f i t F i g . 1. F l o w c h a r t o f t h e H o u s i n g M a r k e t Model *r A * * \u2014 * IUCF , STKOH , -*|COMP LABOH I A LABQH}-\u00bb STKOH LABOH LABOH * d LABOH STKOHQ eft STKOH A v e vc_ t VC SSFW STRIKE -VL\/ CRED NCRED PSTS H P - t T AC_T (HE) v. t A \u2014 \"AC I A AC DIOU [ A Dionr AC DIOH A DIOH AC I 1* |TR if. E x o g e n o u s V a r i a b l e s CO IUCF = P r o f i t Motivated Ground Oriented Housing Units Under Construction COMP = P r o f i t Motivated Ground Oriented Housing Unit Completions STKOH = Stock of Ground Oriented Houses VC = Inventory of Unoccupied New Houses PSTS = P r o f i t Motivated Ground Oriented Housing Unit Starts STRIKE = Number of Man-days of Work Lost DIOH Attributed to Strikes in the Local Construction Industry AC CRED = Credit Conditions Based on the (MCRED) Assumption of the Symmetric III (Asymmetric) Effect of Credit A v a i l a b i l i t y HP I.ABOII = Labour Force TR SSFW = Season Variables PF Average Disposable Income Pre-tax Costs During Development and Marketing Investment Required Per Unit S e l l i n g Price of New Houses Corporate Income Tax Rate Potential T r o f i t Variable 39 v a r i a b l e ( ^ j ) , and t h e i n v e n t o r y o f u n o c c u p i e d new h o u s e s ( V C). F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e number o f h o u s e s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n a t t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e p e r i o d and t h e number o f c o m p l e t i o n s d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d (IUCF_^_- COMP) has been c o n s i d e r e d an endogenous v a r i a b l e , b e c a u s e t h i s v a r i a b l e and t h e change i n t h e number o f u n s o l d new h o u s e s ( A V C ) de p e n d upon t h e number o f new house c o m p l e t i o n s . The model i n i t i a l l y e s t i m a t e s t h e p r e v a i l i n g s e l l i n g p r i c e o f new h o u s e s r e l a t i v e t o p r e - t a x c o s t s d u r i n g d e v e l o p m e n t and t h e number o f u n o c c u p i e d new h o u s e s b a s e d on t h e p r e d e t e r m i n e d and e x o g n e o u s v a r i a b l e s . A l t h o u g h t h e s e e s t i m a t e s have been made i n d e p e n d e n t l y i n t h e m o d e l , i n t h e m a r k e t p l a c e t h e y w o u l d be d e t e r m i n e d a t t h e same t i m e . B a s e d on t h e s e l l i n g p r i c e o f new h o u s e s r e l a t i v e t o p r e - t a x c o s t s d u r i n g d e v e l o p m e n t , t h e p o t e n -t i a l p r o f i t v a r i a b l e has been e s t i m a t e d . S u b s e q u e n t l y , t h e p o t e n t i a l p r o f i t v a r i a b l e r e l a t i v e t o t h e i n v e s t m e n t r e q u i r e d p e r u n i t and t h e number o f u n o c c u p i e d new h o u s e s c o n s t i t u t e d e t e r m i n i n g v a r i a b l e s i n e s t i m a t i n g t h e number o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s . The model u s e d h e r e d i s t i n g u i s h e s i t s e l f f r o m p r e v i o u s m o d e l s by l i m i t i n g t h e m a r k e t a r e a t o a s i n g l e u r b a n r e g i o n , r e c o g n i z i n g t h e s i m i l a r m a r k e t f o r a l l g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g , i n c l u d i n g t h e v a r i o u s s t a g e s i n t h e s u p p l y o f h o u s i n g (under c o n s t r u c t i o n , c o m p l e t i o n s , and v a c a n c i e s ) as d e t e r m i n i n g v a r i -a b l e s , and p r o v i d i n g f o r m o n t h l y c h a n g e s i n t h e s e v a r i a b l e s . E v a l u a t i o n o f t h e M o d e l s M o d e l s may be e v a l u a t e d b o t h i n an e x - p o s t and an e x - a n t e c o n t e x t . An e x - p o s t s i m u l a t i o n may be d e f i n e d t o be i n t r a -40 sample, and e x - a n t e s i m u l a t i o n may be d e f i n e d t o be e x t r a -9 sample. E x - a n t e s i m u l a t i o n e v a l u a t i o n s t a t i s t i c s a t t e m p t t o measure t h e p r e c i s i o n w i t h w h i c h t h e f o r e c a s t e f f e c t i v e l y d e s c r i b e s t h e e v e n t s , w h i c h a f t e r t h e f a c t , d i d o c c u r . I t h a s been n o t e d t h a t t h i s l a t t e r a p p r o a c h i s t h e most a p p r o p r i a t e way o f t e s t i n g a m o d e l ' s p e r f o r m a n c e . 1 ^ The summary s t a t i s t i c s u s e d t o measure t h e p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e m o d e l ' s e x - p o s t and ex-a n t e e s t i m a t e s i n c l u d e t h e i n d i c e s shown i n e x p r e s s i o n s 4.10, 4.11, and 4.12 b e l o w : n The R o o t - M e a n - S q a r e d - E r r o r as a P e r c e n t o f t h e Mean o f t h e D ependent V a r i a b l e 4.10 x 100 Y n The Mean A b s o l u t e E r r o r as a P e r c e n t o f t h e Mean o f t h e D ependent V a r i a b l e t=i 4.11 x 100 Y The P r o p o r t i o n o f t h e T u r n s i n t h e Dependent V a r i a b l e E s t i m a t e d ( P r e d i c t e d ) C o r r e c t l y 4.12 Notation: Y. A = Observed Value of the Dependent Variable = Estimated (Predicted) Value of the Dependent Y Variable = Mean of the Dependent Variable n = Number of Periods 41 F o o t n o t e s x T h e model d e v e l o p e d i n t h i s t h e s i s r e p r e s e n t s a s l i g h t m o d i f i c a t i o n t o t h e Huang m o d e l , a l t h o u g h t h e s p e c i f i c v a r i a b l e s may be s u b s t a n t i a l l y d i f f e r e n t . The Huang model was b a s e d on t h e i d e n t i t y t h a t t h e a c t u a l change i n t h e i n v e n t o r y u n d e r c o n -s t r u c t i o n ( A IUCF) e q u a l s t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e a c t u a l number o f h o u s i n g s t a r t s and t h e number o f c o m p l e t i o n s (PSTS -COMP); as w e l l a s , t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t t h e a c t u a l change i n t h e i n v e n t o r y u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n p a r t i a l l y a d j u s t s t o t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e d e s i r e d number o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n and t h e o p e n i n g l e v e l o f s u c h an i n v e n t o r y (IUCF* - IUCF ) . However, t h e model d e v e l o p e d i n t h i s t h e s i s has b e en b a s e d on t h e h y p o t h e -s i s t h a t t h e d e s i r e d change i n t h e i n v e n t o r y u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n (\u00a3>IUCF*) e q u a l s t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e d e s i r e d number o f h o u s i n g s t a r t s and t h e a c t u a l number o f c o m p l e t i o n s (PSTS* -COMP), and t h a t t h e d e s i r e d change i n t h e i n v e n t o r y u n d e r c o n -s t r u c t i o n a l s o e q u a l s t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e d e s i r e d number o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n and t h e o p e n i n g l e v e l o f s u c h an i n v e n t o r y (IUCF* - IUCF_ ) . I t has a l s o been h y p o t h e s i z e d t h a t t h e a c t u a l number o f h o u s i n g s t a r t s (PSTS) w o u l d be p r o p o r t i o n a l t o t h e d e s i r e d number o f h o u s i n g s t a r t s ( P S T S * ) . C o n s e q u e n t l y , t h e a c t u a l number o f h o u s i n g s t a r t s (PSTS) has b e en h y p o t h e s i z e d t o p a r t i a l l y a d j u s t t o t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e d e s i r e d number o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n and t h e o p e n i n g l e v e l o f s u c h an i n -v e n t o r y (IUCF* - I U C F _ t ) p l u s c o m p l e t i o n s (COMP) d u r i n g t h e p e r i o d . D a v i d S. Huang, \" S t u d y o f t h e M a r k e t f o r New H o u s i n g U n i t s \" , P r o c e e d i n g s o f t h e B u s i n e s s and E c o n o m i c S t a t i s t i c s S e c t i o n o f  t h e A m e r i c a n S t a t i s t i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n ( 1 9 6 9 ) , p. 705. 2 P e t e r S p u r r , L a n d and U r b a n D e v e l o p m e n t ( T o r o n t o : James L o r i m e r and Company, 19 7 6 ) , pp. 58 and 241. 3 See s e c t i o n \" P o t e n t i a l P r o f i t V a r i a b l e \" i n A p p e n d i x I f o r a r e v i e w o f t h e r a t i o n a l e t h a t t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between p r e v a i l i n g s e l l i n g p r i c e s and c o s t s d u r i n g d e v e l o p m e n t and m a r k e t i n g a new d w e l l i n g u n i t may be more i m p o r t a n t t h a n a c t u a l p r o f i t l e v e l s , t h a t i n c o r p o r a t e a l l i n v e s t m e n t c o s t s ( i n c l u d i n g \"sunk c o s t s \" ) , when m o d e l l i n g t h e s h o r t - r u n b e h a v i o u r o f t h e l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t i n d u s t r y . 4 . . Ray C. F a i r and Dwight M. J a f f e e , \"Methods o f E s t i m a t i o n f o r M a r k e t s i n D i s e q u i l i b r i u m \" , E c o n o m e t r i c a , V o l . 40, No. 3 (May, 1 9 7 2 ) , p. 497. 5 I b i d . , p. 497. Between 196 8 and 1977, new g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d d w e l l i n g u n i t c o m p l e t i o n s r e p r e s e n t e d an a v e r a g e a n n u a l i n c r e a s e o f 3.8 p e r c e n t i n t h e s t o c k o f s u c h h o u s e s . T h e r e f o r e , i t w o u l d a p p e a r t h a t t h e s t o c k o f new h o u s e s w o u l d r e p r e s e n t a v e r y s m a l l p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e t o t a l s t o c k o f h o u s e s and t h u s t h e s u p p l y i n t h e m a r k e t p l a c e . 42 ' P r e - t a x c o s t s d u r i n g d e v e l o p m e n t and m a r k e t i n g a new d w e l l i n g u n i t (AC) w o u l d be a f f e c t e d by p r e v a i l i n g c r e d i t c o n d i -t i o n s , b e c a u s e t h i s v a r i a b l e i n c l u d e s f i n a n c i n g e x p e n d i t u r e s b a s e d on t h e c o s t o f b o r r o w i n g . However, i t was assumed t h a t t h e c o r r e l a t i o n between t h e c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e and t h e change i n t h e d i s p o s a b l e i n c o m e - d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t v a r i a b l e ( D j ^ H | ) w o u l d be m i n i m a l . I t w o u l d a p p e a r t h a t t h e r e w o u l d be a n u l l i f y i n g a f f e c t on any p o t e n t i a l m a t h e m a t i c a l r e l a t i o n s h i p b e -c a u s e o f t h e complex s p c i f i c a t i o n o f t h e two v a r i a b l e s ( i . e . t h e i n c o m e - c o s t v a r i a b l e was d i v i d e d by a v a r i a b l e t h a t i n d i c a t e d t h e i n c r e a s e i n t h e d e g r e e o f c r o w d i n g (CHCW), and t h e c r e d i t c o n -d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e i n c l u d e d an i n d i c a t o r o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y ) . The s e l l i n g p r i c e o f new h o u s e s r e l a t i v e t o b e f o r e t a x c o s t s d u r i n g d e v e l o p m e n t (-^) has been e x p r e s s e d as t h e sum o f t h e l a g g e d v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e p l u s an e s t i m a t e o f t h e change i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e e x p r e s s e d a s a f u n c t i o n o f t h e d e t e r m i n i n g v a r i a b l e s . A l t h o u g h p r e v a i l i n g s e l l i n g p r i c e s o f new h o u s e s r e l a t i v e t o d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s w o u l d t e n d t o r e f l e c t v a l u e s i n t h e p r e v i o u s p e r i o d b e c a u s e o f s i m i l a r v a l u d e s f o r t h e d e t e r -m i n i n g v a r i a b l e s , e x p e c t a t i o n s b a s e d on p r e v i o u s m a r k e t p e r f o r m -ance w o u l d a l s o a f f e c t p r e v a i l i n g t r a n s a c t i o n s . However, t h e p r i m a r y o b j e c t i v e o f e x p r e s s i n g t h e model i n t h i s manner stems f r o m t h e a p p a r e n t t i g h t e r r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e change i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e and t h e change i n t h e c a p a c i t y t o p u r c h a s e , a s i n d i c a t e d by d i s p o s a b l e income, r e l a t i v e t o b e f o r e t a x c o s t s d u r -i n g d e v e l o p m e n t (D^pjH) . I n t h e s h o r t - r u n a change i n d i s p o s a b l e income p e r h o u s e -h o l d r e l a t i v e t o p r i c e s t o d e v e l o p a new house w o u l d l i k e l y r e s u l t i n a change i n t h e s e l l i n g p r i c e o f new h o u s e s r e l a t i v e t o d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s b e c a u s e o f t h e p o t e n t i a l i n c r e a s e i n t h e demand r e l a t i v e t o t h e s u p p l y o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s a v a i l a b l e . However, i n t h e l o n g - r u n a p e r s i s t e n t change i n t h e c a p a c i t y t o p u r c h a s e r e l a t i v e t o (say) c o n s t r u c t i o n p r i c e s w o u l d l i k e l y r e s u l t i n a change i n t h e m a g n i t u d e o f t h e h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s p r o v i d e d i n new d e v e l o p m e n t . T h i s e f f e c t need n o t r e s u l t i n a change i n t h e s e l l i n g p r i c e o f new h o u s e s r e l a t i v e t o d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s as c o m p e n s a t i o n b a l a n c e s r e s o u r c e s r e q u i r e d . T h e r e f o r e , t h e r e l a t i o n -s h i p between t h e s e l l i n g p r i c e o f new h o u s e s r e l a t i v e t o b e f o r e t a x c o s t s d u r i n g d e v e l o p m e n t (\"\u00a7\u00a3-) and i t s d e t e r m i n i n g v a r i a b l e s h as been b a s e d on t h e change i n t h e d i s p o s a b l e income r e l a t i v e t o b e f o r e t a x c o s t s d u r i n g d e v e l o p m e n t (D?QH) i n o r d e r t o a v o i d t h e e f f e c t o f any l o n g - t e r m change i n trie d i s p o s a b l e income p e r h o u s e h o l d r e l a t i v e t o t h e q u a n t i t y h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s a v a i l a b l e . 9 Bank o f Canada, The E q u a t i o n s o f RDX2 and E s t i m a t - t e d t o 4Q72, T e c h n i c a l R e p o r t No. 5 (Ottawa: Bank o f Canada, 1976, p. 261. I b i d . , p. 264. CHAPTER V SPECIFICATION OF MARKET AREA, VARIABLES, AND MODELS M a r k e t A r e a and S t u d y P e r i o d I n o r d e r t o e s t i m a t e t h e model f o r g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g i n a l i m i t e d h o u s i n g m a r k e t a r e a , an a t t e m p t has been made t o de-f i n e an a r e a e n c o m p a s s i n g t h e u r b a n d e v e l o p e d a r e a o f t h e O t t a w a -H u l l M e t r o p o l i t a n R e g i o n . 1 B e c a u s e o f t h e l i m i t e d d a t a a v a i l a b l e , t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t a r e a has b een d e f i n e d as t h a t a r e a encompassed by b o t h t h e 1971 and 1976 Census M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a b o u n d a r i e s . The above d e f i n i t i o n , as shown i n F i g u r e 2, i n c l u d e s a l l o f t h e c o n t i g u o u s c e n t r a l u r b a n a r e a as w e l l as most o f t h e new u r b a n 2 d e v e l o p m e n t b e y o n d t h e p e r i m e t e r o f t h e G r e e n b e l t . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e s t u d y p e r i o d has b een d e f i n e d t o i n c l u d e t h e y e a r s between 1968 t o 1979, b e c a u s e d a t a on n o n - p r o f i t h o u s i n g f o r i n d i v i d u a l m e t r o p o l i t a n a r e a s has b een made a v a i l a b l e o n l y s i n c e 1968. H i s t o r y o f L a n d A c q u i s i t i o n and D e v e l o p m e n t I n 1980 t h e p o p u l a t i o n s i z e i n t h e s t u d y a r e a was 725,443 w h i c h r e p r e s e n t e d an a v e r a g e a n n u a l i n c r e a s e o f 13,504 s i n c e 3 1968. The r e l a t i v e l y r e c e n t h i s t o r y o f l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t i n t h e O t t a w a - H u l l a r e a i n c l u d e s m a s s i v e p u b l i c i n t e r v e n t i o n i n l a n d m a r k e t s , and a g r o w i n g c o n c e n t r a t i o n i n t h e o w n e r s h i p o f d e v e l o p -a b l e l a n d . 4 P u b l i c p l a n n i n g a g e n c i e s have e f f e c t i v e l y c h a n n e l e d g r o w t h t o s e v e r a l l o c a l e s on t h e u r b a n f r i n g e and l a n d o w n e r s h i p 45 has become c o n c e n t r a t e d a t t h e s e l o c a t i o n s . Between 1958 and 1962, t h e F e d e r a l N a t i o n a l C a p i t a l R e g i o n a c q u i r e d , p a r t i a l l y by d i r e c t p u r c h a s e and p a r t i a l l y by ex-p r o p r i a t i o n , a p p r o x i m a t e l y 41,390 a c r e s t o f o r m a s i n g l e g r e e n -5 b e l t t o s u r r o u n d O t tawa, a t a t o t a l c o s t o f a b o u t $40 m i l l i o n . C o i n c i d e n t w i t h t h i s e v e n t , a r e g i o n a l p l a n n i n g s t u d y u n d e r t a k e n i n 1958 c o n c l u d e d t h a t new d e v e l o p m e n t s w o u l d o c c u r o u t s i d e t h e G r e e n b e l t a l o n g m a j o r a p p r o a c h r o a d s . The e a s t - w e s t e x p r e s s w a y had t e r m i n a t e d a t t h e G r e e n b e l t ' s i n t e r i o r edge b u t i t seemed c l e a r t h a t i t w o u l d be e x t e n d e d t o l e a v e t h e G r e e n b e l t n e a r t h e M a r c h - G o u l b o u r n b o u n d a r y t o - t h e w e s t , and a t t h e O r l e a n s a r e a t o t h e e a s t . ^ I n 1963 a n o t h e r p l a n n i n g s t u d y showed l a r g e s c a l e f u t u r e g r o w t h a t t h e e a s t e r n , s o u t h e r n , and p a r t i c u l a r l y t h e w e s t e r n G r e e n b e l t l i m i t s . F u r t h e r p l a n n i n g s t u d i e s a l l o c a t e d f o r e c a s t e d p o p u l a t i o n l e v e l s t o t h e v a r i o u s d e v e l o p m e n t nodes and made b u d g e t a r y p r i o r i t i e s w i t h r e s p e c t t o e x p r e s s w a y (Queensway) e x t e n s i o n s . 7 The d i r e c t e f f e c t o f t h e G r e e n b e l t was t o s t e r i l i z e f r o m b u i l d i n g e x t e n s i v e b l o c k s o f l a n d i n t h e l o c a t i o n s most l i k e l y t o have been s e l e c t e d f o r f u r t h e r s u b d i v i s i o n s . Many s u b d i v i d e r s f o u n d a l t e r n a t i v e s i t e s i n s i d e t h e G r e e n b e l t i n p o s i t i o n s o f c o n t i g u i t y w i t h t h e m a i n u r b a n f r o n t and w i t h p i p e d s e r v i c e s ; and, i n 1966 t h e Ottawa c i t y l i m i t s s t i l l c o n t a i n e d enough d e v e l o p a b l e g l a n d t o accommodate f i f t e e n y e a r s u r b a n g r o w t h . F u r t h e r m o r e , c o -i n c i d e n t w i t h p l a n n i n g a c t i v i t y , d e v e l o p e r s began a s s e m b l i n g l a r g e t r a c t s i n t h e e a s t and w e s t where t h e e x p r e s s w a y s w o u l d e x i t t h e G r e e n b e l t as w e l l as a l o n g t h e h i g h w a y s i m m e d i a t e l y s o u t h o f t h e G r e e n b e l t n e a r M a n o t i c k on t h e R i d e a u R i v e r . S u b s e q u e n t l y , b y 1965 t h e m a j o r f i r m s had a b o u t 20 y e a r s s u p p l y o f l a n d i n h a n d . 1 0 Development began i n t h e s a t e l l i t e n o d e s t h r o u g h t h e l a t t e r 1960's w i t h t h e p r o v i s i o n o f w a t e r and sewage t r e a t m e n t f a c i l i t i e s i n t h e w e s t e r n node ( M a r c h - G o u l b o r n a r e a ) ; t h e e x t e n s i o n o f new t r u n k f a c i l i t i e s a c r o s s t h e s o u t h w e s t e r n G r e e n -b e l t t o t h e p r o p o s e d B a r r h a v e n (Nepean) s u b d i v i s i o n ; and, t h e i n i t i a t i o n o f p r o j e c t s a t O r l e a n s t h e e a s t e r n node ( C u m b e r l a n d -11 G l o u c e s t e r a r e a ) . P r i v a t e l a n d a s s e m b l i e s p r o c e e d e d and b y 1971, t h e Canada M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n s u r v e y f o u n d e i g h t p r i v a t e t r a c t s e x c e e d i n g one s q u a r e m i l e among o v e r 17,000 12 a c r e s h e l d by t w e n t y - t w o f i r m s , p r i m a r i l y i n t h e g r o w t h n o d e s . C o u p l e d w i t h t h e c o n c e n t r a t i o n o f l a n d o w n e r s h i p , s m a l l e r l a n d d e v e l o p e r s f a c e d w i t h h i g h - p r i c e d raw l a n d , a d e v e l o p m e n t p r o c e s s r e q u i r i n g a t l e a s t e i g h t e e n months (and sometimes t h r e e y e a r s ) , and t h e t r e n d t o l a r g e - s c a l e p r o j e c t s , have p r o g r e s s i v e l y b e en 13 f o r c e d o u t o f t h i s m a r k e t . TABLE 1 summarizes t h e m a g n i t u d e o f c o n s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t y t h r o u g h o u t t h e s t u d y p e r i o d . The l a r g e s t number o f h o u s i n g s t a r t s o c c u r r e d between 197 0 and 1973 w i t h 197 3 s h o w i n g t h e h i g h e s t l e v e l o f a c t i v i t y . The number o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s ( s i n g l e -d e t a c h e d , s e m i - d e t a c h e d , d u p l e x , and row d w e l l i n g u n i t s ) was a l s o t h e l a r g e s t i n 1973; however, t h e y e a r s 1976, 1978 and 1970 showed r e l a t i v e l y h i g h l e v e l s o f a c t i v i t y . The p r o p o r t i o n o f g r o u n d -o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g . s t a r t s t h a t was composed o f row d w e l l i n g u n i t s has f l u c t u a t e d t h r o u g h o u t t h e s t u d y p e r i o d ; however, t h e p e r i o d 1976 t o 1978 showed a s u s t a i n e d i n c r e a s e i n t h i s p r o p o r t i o n . TABLE 2 summarizes t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f c o n s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t y between t h e O n t a r i o and Quebec p o r t i o n s o f t h e O t t a w a -H u l l s t u d y a r e a , between t h e O n t a r i o p o r t i o n o f t h e u r b a n c o r e and s u b u r b a n a r e a s , as w e l l as between t h e e a s t and w e s t s u b u r b a n TABLE 1 MARKET AREA HOUSING S T A R T S 3 1968 196 9 1970 1971 1972 197 3 1974 1975 197 6 1977 197 8 1979 T o t a l 6502 7986 12380 11880 14844 15477 9664 7090 6977 7289 7417 4542 Ground O r i e n t e d 4598 4969 5263 5094 4484 6011 3923 4324 5811 5009 5301 3386 % T o t a l 70.7 62.2 42.5 42.9 30.2 38.8 40.6 61.0 83.3 68.7 71.5 74.5 % Row 21.8 27.0 31.7 24.2 29.9 37.3 33.4 37.6 52 .6 50.6 51.5 29.4 a F o r a r e v i e w o f t h e s o u r c e s , see s e c t i o n \" H o u s i n g U n i t E s t i m a t e s \" i n A p p e n d i x I . TABLE 2 DISTRIBUTION OF GROUND-ORIENTED HOUSING ST A R T S 3 196 8-1970 1971-1973 1974-1976 1977-1979 O n t a r i o P o r t i o n U r b a n C o r e C u m b e r l a n d G l o u c e s t e r Nepean O t h e r 11096 3530 519 3144 2605 1298 10492 2607 756 3863 2460 806 9660 2057 229 2809 2441 2124 12696 2769 1245 3767 3589 1326 Quebec P o r t i o n 3734 5097 4398 1000 a F o r a r e v i e w o f t h e s o u r c e s , see s e c t i o n \" H o u s i n g U n i t E s t i m a t e s \" i n A p p e n d i x I . 4 8 a r e a s . I t i s c l e a r t h a t t h e O n t a r i o p o r t i o n has m a i n t a i n e d a l a r g e r s h a r e o f new d e v e l o p m e n t by a s u b s t a n t i a l p r o p o r t i o n . W i t h i n t h e O n t a r i o p o r t i o n , t h e u r b a n c o r e ( c o m p r i s i n g t h r e e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s ) has m a i n t a i n e d a l a r g e s h a r e o f t h e g r o w t h a l t h o u g h most o f t h e s t a r t s o c c u r r e d i n t h e s u b u r b a n m u n i c i p a l -i t i e s w i t h a p p r o x i m a t e l y t h e same amount o f g r o w t h i n t h e e a s t -e r n and w e s t e r n m u n i c i p a l i t i e s . M o d i f i e d P o t e n t i a l P r o f i t V a r i a b l e  O b j e c t i v e : As an i n v e s t o r , a d e v e l o p e r w o u l d e s t i m a t e t h e p o t e n t i a l p r o f i t o f d e v e l o p i n g l a n d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e e x p e c t e d r e v e n u e s , e x p e n d i t u r e s , and t h e v a l u e a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e t i m i n g o f c a s h f l o w s . I t has b e en assumed t h a t a n a l y s e s o f t h i s t y p e w o u l d g o v e r n t h e l e v e l o f i n v e s t m e n t i n l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t . How-e v e r , t h e d e s i r e d number o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n w o u l d n o t o n l y stem f r o m t h e l e v e l o f i n v e s t m e n t , b u t w o u l d a l s o depend upon t h e a v e r a g e i n v e s t m e n t r e q u i r e d p e r u n i t . I n t h i s s t u d y an a t t e m p t has been made t o i n d i c a t e t h e p o t e n t i a l d e s i r e d l e v e l o f i n v e s t m e n t i n g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g u n i t s by an e s t i m a t e o f t h e p o t e n t i a l p r o f i t a b i l i t y o f d e v e l o p i n g l a n d ; and, t o i n d i c a t e t h e f l u c t u a t i o n s i n t h e a v e r a g e i n v e s t m e n t r e q u i r e d p e r u n i t w h i c h were n o t a t t r i b u t e d t o g e n e r a l r a t e s o f i n f l a t i o n , b u t r a t h e r t h e d e n s i t y o f d e v e l o p m e n t . P o t e n t i a l P r o f i t V a r i a b l e : The p o t e n t i a l p r o f i t a b i l i t y o f i n v e s t -i n g i n l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t depends upon t h e p o t e n t i a l r e v e n u e as w e l l as a l l t h e f i x e d and v a r i a b l e c o s t s i n c u r r e d t o a c q u i r e , a s s e m b l e and m a r k e t t h e good \u2014 h o u s i n g . However, i t has b e en assumed t h a t t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e s e l l i n g p r i c e o f h o u s e s and t h e c o s t s e x p e r i e n c e d d u r i n g p r o d u c t i o n w o u l d be i m p o r t a n t i n . m o d e l l i n g t h e s h o r t - r u n b e h a v i o u r o f t h e 'development i n d u s t r y , and t h a t \"sunk c o s t s \" o r c o s t s t h a t w o u l d o c c u r anyways n e e d n o t be 14 c o n s i d e r e d . The p o t e n t i a l p r o f i t a b i l i t y o f d e v e l o p i n g l a n d has b e e n e s t i m a t e d b a s e d on a r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s e t o f p r o p e r t i e s , b e c a u s e o f t h e d i f f i c u l t y t o o b t a i n t i m e s e r i e s measurements o f p r i c e s and q u a n t i t i e s c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e a v e r a g e d w e l l i n g u n i t i n t h e d e f i n e d m a r k e t a r e a . The s e t ( o r c l a s s ) o f r e s i d e n t i a l p r o p e r t i e s s e l e c t e d has b e en new s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s , i n t h e O n t a r i o p o r t i o n o f t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a , b e c a u s e t h i s c a t e g o r y r e p r e s e n t -ed t h e most f r e q u e n t t y p e and l o c a t i o n o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d d w e l l i n g s o v e r t h e s t u d y p e r i o d . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e p o t e n t i a l p r o f i t a b i l i t y o f d e v e l o p i n g l a n d i n s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s has been measured by t h e d i s c o u n t e d b e n e f i t - c o s t r a t i o , where o n l y t h e s e l l i n g p r i c e and c o s t s d u r i n g d e v e l o p m e n t and m a r k e t i n g a new h o u s e have been c o n s i d e r e d . The d i s c o u n t e d b e n e f i t - c o s t r a t i o a c c o u n t s f o r a l l e a r n i n g s f l o w s , and f o r t h e i r t i m i n g , by g i v i n g r e l a t i v e w e i g h t s t o d a t e d f l o w s . The two v e r s i o n s o f t h e b e n e f i t - c o s t r a t i o a r e t h e g r o s s (PF) and n e t p r o f i t a b i l i t y (NPF) r a t i o as shown i n e x p r e s s i o n s 5.1 and 5.2: t z R (1 + r) n -n Gross P r o f i t a b i l i t y Index n=l 5.1 t Y_ C n (1 + r) -n n=l Net P r o f i t a b i l i t y Index G r o s s P r o f i t a b i l i t y Index 1.0 5.2 N o t a t i o n : = Cash i n f l o w d u r i n g p e r i o d \"n\" C = Cash o u t f l o w d u r i n g p e r i o d \"n r = R e q u i r e d r a t e o f r e t u r n t = I n v e s t m e n t p e r i o d 5 0 A l t h o u g h t h e p r o f i t v a r i a b l e h as been f o r m u l a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e o b j e c t i v e t o I n d i c a t e t h e a d v a n t a g e o f i n c u r r i n g a d d i t i o n a l c o s t s i n v i e w o f p r e v a i l i n g s e l l i n g p r i c e s , t h e ap-p r o p r i a t e l a g s t r u c t u r e between t h e d e c i s i o n t o d e v e l o p and t h e s u b s e q u e n t h o u s i n g s t a r t was u n c e r t a i n . O b s e r v e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s l i k e l y r e f l e c t e x p e c t a t i o n s h e l d , and d e c i s i o n s made, p r i o r t o i n i t i a t i n g s u b d i v i s i o n c o n s t r u c t i o n as w e l l as p r i o r t o t h e commencement o f a h o u s i n g s t a r t . I n t h i s s t u d y , an a t t e m p t has been made t o e m p h a s i z e t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between p r i c e s a t t h e t i m e o f a h o u s i n g s t a r t b y u s i n g p r e v a i l i n g p r i c e s , w i t h no a t t e m p t t o e s t i m a t e f o r e c a s t s o f p r i c e s and e x p e c t e d p r o f i t s a t v a r i o u s t i m e s d u r i n g t h e d e v e l o p m e n t p h a s e o f an i n -v e s t m e n t . However, t o i n c l u d e t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f d e v e l o p m e n t d e c i s i o n s made a t an e a r l i e r d a t e , a l l t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n and f i n a n c i n g c o s t s have been c o n s i d e r e d , a l t h o u g h m e a s u r e d u s i n g p r e v a i l i n g p r i c e s . The a p p r o p r i a t e n e s s o f t h i s a p p r o a c h i s a r g u e d on t h e b a s i s t h a t p r i c e s , i n g e n e r a l , a r e h i g h l y c o r r e l a t e d w i t h r e c e n t l y e x p e r i e n c e d p r i c e s ; t h a t t h e s u p p l y o f l o t s r e a d y f o r d e v e l o p m e n t w o u l d l i k e l y be s u f f i c i e n t , g i v e n t h e a b i l i t y t o o b s e r v e t h e a c t i v i t y o f c o m p e t i t o r s and t h e p e r s i s t e n t p e c u n i a r y r e w a r d s f o r c o n v e r t i n g s u b u r b a n l a n d f o r u r b a n d e v e l o p m e n t ; t h a t e x p e n d i t u r e s f o r s u b d i v i s i o n s may o c c u r d u r i n g and a f t e r (as w e l l as b e f o r e ) house c o n s t r u c t i o n ; and, t h a t h o u s i n g s t a r t s a p p e a r e d t o r i s e r a p i d l y when s e l l i n g p r i c e s r o s e r a p i d l y r e l a t i v e t o d e v e l o p m e n t 16 c o s t s . F u r t h e r m o r e , s i n c e t h e b a s i c h o u s i n g model e x p r e s s e s a r e l a t i o n s h i p where t h e r e w o u l d be o n l y a p a r t i a l a d j u s t m e n t i n t h e r e s p o n s e t o t h e d i s c r e p a n c y between t h e a c t u a l and t h e d e s i r e d 51 number o f h o u s i n g u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n , i t w o u l d h o t a p p e a r c r i t i c a l ( t o be c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e s p e c i f i c a t i o n s o f t h e model) t o i d e n t i f y e s t i m a t e s o f p o t e n t i a l p r o f i t s b a s e d on d i f f e r e n t a s s u m p t i o n s p e r t a i n i n g t o t i m e l a g s . I n v i e w o f t h e o b j e c t i v e to. i n c l u d e t h o s e c a s h f l o w s i n c u r r e d b e c a u s e o f t h e d e c i s i o n t o d e v e l o p , o n l y t h e p r o c e e d s o f s a l e , e x p e n d i t u r e s f o r s u b d i v i s i o n , a d d i t i o n a l l a n d h o l d i n g c h a r g e s , b u i l d i n g and a n c i l l a r y l o t improvement c o s t s , f i n a n c i n g c h a r g e s , p r i n c i p a l r e p a y m e n t o f a m o r t g a g e t o a c q u i r e l a n d , income t a x e s , and t h e r e q u i r e d r a t e o f r e t u r n have been c o n s i d e r e d . F u r t h e r m o r e , a l l e s t i m a t e d v a l u e s have been d i s c o u n t e d t o t h e t i m e o f t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t b a s e d on t h e f o l l o w i n g p r e m i s e s : a) E s t i m a t e d r e v e n u e s and c o s t s have been b a s e d on p r i c e s p r e v a i l i n g a t t h e t i m e o f t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t . b) I t was assumed t h a t h o u s i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n may o c c u r i n s i x months a f t e r commencing s u b d i v i s i o n a c t i v i t y and t h a t i t t a k e s s i x months t o c o n s t r u c t and m a r k e t a 17 h o u s e . c) I t was assumed t h a t a l l e q u i t y f i n a n c e d e x p e n d i t u r e s were c o m m i t t e d a t t h e t i m e o f commencing t h e p a r t i c u l a r a c t i v i t y . d) The p o t e n t i a l p r o f i t v a r i a b l e may be b a s e d on t h e p r o f i t a b i l i t y i n d i c i e s s p e c i f i e d i n e x p r e s s i o n s 5.3 and 5 . 4 . 52 HP Tn (1 + r ) * PF = ; \u2014 \u2014 \u201e 5 . 3 (RSUB + RBLDG + RLAND + ITAX) + { \u00a3 s m ( 1 .+ r)m) + EBLDG +^y~ ( p c s T + A H C . ) \/ ( 1 + r ) 1 (1 + r > \" fb m NPF = PF - 1.0 5.4 No t a t i o n : PF = Gross p r o f i t a b i l i t y i n d e x NPF = Net p r o f i t a b i l i t y i n d e x HP = S e l l i n g p r i c e o f a house RSUB = S u b d i v i s i o n c o s t s f i n a n c e d by borrowed funds RBLDG = B u i l d i n g and l o t improve-ment c o s t s f i n a n c e d by borrowed funds RLAND = Land c o s t s f i n a n c e d by borrowed funds ITAX = Income t a x ESUB = S u b d i v i s i o n c o s t s f i n a n c e d by e q u i t y .EBLDG = B u i l d i n g and l o t i m p r o v e -ment c o s t s f i n a n c e d by e q u i t y FCST^ = F i n a n c i n g c o s t s ( i n t e r e s t payments and f l o t a t i o n c o s t s ) i n month \" i \" AHC| = A d d i t i o n a l h o l d i n g c h a r g e s i n month \" i \" n = Remaining number o f months i n the i n v e s t m e n t m = Number of months l a p s e d s i n c e the commencement o f s u b d i v i s i o n c o n s t r u c t i o n r = R e q u i r e d r a t e o f r e t u r n I n v e s t m e n t R e q u i r e d P e r U n i t : The f l u c t u a t i o n s i n t h e a v e r a g e i n v e s t m e n t r e q u i r e d p e r u n i t , n o t a t t r i b u t e d t o i n f l a t i o n , h a s b e e n i n d i c a t e d by an e s t i m a t e o f t h e p r e v a i l i n g p r e - t a x c o s t s d u r i n g t h e d e v e l o p m e n t and m a r k e t i n g o f t h e a v e r a g e g r o u n d -o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g u n i t r e l a t i v e t o t h e c o s t s i n c u r r e d f o r new s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s ( i . e . t h e s e l e c t e d c l a s s o f r e s i d e n t i a l p r o p e r t i e s t o e s t i m a t e t h e p o t e n t i a l p r o f i t v a r i a b l e ) . The c o s t s c o n s i d e r e d i n c l u d e d e x p e n d i t u r e s f o r s u b d i v i s i o n , a d d i t i o n a l l a n d h o l d i n g c h a r g e s , b u i l d i n g and a n c i l l a r y l o t improvement c o s t s , f i n a n c i n g c h a r g e s ; however, no a t t e m p t was made t o d i s c o u n t c a s h ,, 18 f l o w s . The a v e r a g e i n v e s t m e n t r e q u i r e d p e r g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s -i n g u n i t has b e en i n d i c a t e d by t h e w e i g h t e d - a v e r a g e c o s t s d u r i n g d e v e l o p m e n t and m a r k e t i n g s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s and row h o u s e s 19 i n t h e O n t a r i o p o r t i o n o f t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a . O n l y s i n g l e -d e t a c h e d and row d w e l l i n g s o f s t a n d a r d i z e d c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s have 53 been considered because the primary objective of t h i s variable was to indicate the p r e v a i l i n g decision to b u i l d smaller units at lower development costs, other types of ground-oriented housing units were of lesser importance, and the estimation of p r e v a i l i n g actual average development costs per unit would be d i f f i c u l t . Credit Conditions Variable In general, c r e d i t conditions has been indicated by the product of the p r e v a i l i n g mortgage i n t e r e s t rate and an index of the severity of c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y . Whereas the price of c r e d i t has been indicated by nominal mortgage in t e r e s t rates, the sever-i t y of c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y (or the tightness i n non-price c r e d i t terms) has been indicated by the r a t i o of the mortgage in t e r e s t rate and the sum of mortgages (in constant dollars) approved for p r o f i t motivated new housing by i n s t i t u t i o n a l lenders i n Canada. The determining components of the c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y index may be considered independent of a single l o c a l housing market, would measure the price w i l l i n g to be paid by borrowers per quantity of money made available to the nation, as well as the quantity lend-ers would be w i l l i n g to supply at p r e v a i l i n g prices. To the extent that borrowers are attracted, are able, to undertake more debts r e l a t i v e to price l e v e l s may indicate that non-price c r e d i t terms are easier, and\/or that more potential borrowers are consid-ered e l i g i b l e . Conversely, i f less money i s loaned r e l a t i v e to price l e v e l s , t h i s may indicate more burdensome non-price terms to the borrower, severer discriminating c r i t e r i a , and perhaps more competition for available loanable funds. To test the hypothesis of the symmetric e f f e c t of c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y two d i f f e r e n t s p e c i f i c a t i o n s have been made of the 54 i n d i c a t o r o f p r e v a i l i n g c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s . I n a d d i t i o n , a t h i r d s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f t h e c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e was made t o a s s e s s t h e p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s model b a s e d on t h e assump-t i o n o f t h e a s y m m e t r i c e f f e c t o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y . The two s p e c i f i c a t i o n s o f t h e s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t v a r i a b l e (CRED) d i f f e r w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e a t t e m p t t o d i s t i n g u i s h between t h e f i n a n c i n g p r o -v i d e d by p r i v a t e i n s t i t u t i o n a l l e n d e r s and by g overnment. S p e c i f -i c a l l y , O p t i o n (A) i n d i c a t e d m a r k e t c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s (SMCRED), b a s e d on t h e p r o d u c t o f t h e a v e r a g e m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e and 20 t h e s e v e r i t y o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y i n d e x . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f f a v o u r a b l e g o vernment l e n d i n g t e r m s and s u b s i d i e s G t o t h e p r o f i t m o t i v a t e d s e c t o r (^) has b e en i n d i c a t e d by t h e r a t i o o f g o v ernment l o a n s t o a l l m o r t g a g e l o a n s by i n s t i t u t i o n a l l e n d e r s t o t h e p r o f i t m o t i v a t e d s e c t o r f o r new h o u s i n g . I n a d d i t i o n , O p t i o n (B) p r o v i d e d an i n d i c a t o r o f c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s o f p r i v a t e i n s t i t u t i o n a l l e n d e r s (SPCRED) and g overnment (SGCRED) s e p a r a t e l y , b a s e d on t h e p r o d u c t o f t h e m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e and c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y i n d e x f o r e a c h t y p e o f i n s t i t u t i o n . A l t e r n a t i v e l y , t o t e s t t h e h y p o t h e s i s o f t h e a s y m m e t r i c e f f e c t o f c r e d i t a v a i l -a b i l i t y , t h e a s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t v a r i a b l e (NCRED) p r o v i d e d an i n d i -c a t o r o f m a r k e t c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s (AMCRED) b a s e d on a m o d i f i c a t i o n t o t h e O p t i o n (A) s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e . S p e c i f i -c a l l y , t h e m o d i f i c a t i o n was made by s u p p r e s s i n g t h e v a l u e s o f t h e s e v e r i t y o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y i n d e x , when i t a p p e a r e d t h a t non-p r i c e c r e d i t t e r m s were e a s i e r t h a n a v e r a g e ( i . e . when t h e v a l u e s o f t h e i n d e x were l o w e r t h a n a v e r a g e ) . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e a v a i l -a b i l i t y o f f a v o u r a b l e government l e n d i n g t e r m s and s u b s i d i e s t o G t h e p r o f i t m o t i v a t e d s e c t o r has b e en i n d i c a t e d i n t h e same G manner d i s c u s s e d a b o v e . No a t t e m p t was made t o m o d i f y t h e (^) 55 v a r i a b l e because I t would i n d i c a t e the. a v a i l a b i l i t y of su b s i d i e s (a p r i c e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c ) i n a d d i t i o n to the a v a i l a b i l i t y of non-p r i c e f a c t o r s that govern the p o t e n t i a l f o r more mortgage funds. Consequently, the asymmetric c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e (NCRED = G AMCRED, ^) would continue to i n d i c a t e the s e v e r i t y of c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s by p r e v a i l i n g mortgage i n t e r e s t r a t e s , but would only i n d i c a t e c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y to the extent t h a t i t was more severe than average (except f o r the a v a i l a b i l i t y of favourable govern-ment le n d i n g terms). S p e c i f i c a t i o n of Models f o r Endogenous  and Housing S t a r t s V a r i a b l e s The models f o r the endogenous and housing s t a r t s v a r i a b l e s have already been expressed above as fu n c t i o n s of determining v a r i a b l e s , which i n some cases were expressed i n general terms (e.g. c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s ) . In t h i s s e c t i o n , a l l the models are summarized and s p e c i f i e d i n Figures 3, 4, 5, and 6 f o r easy r e f -erence . P o t e n t i a l P r o f i t a b i l i t y I nves tment Per U n i t House P r i c e s C o s t s House P r i c e s .  C o s t s Income Tax I n v e s t m e n t ! Rate ' Per U n i t | House P r i c e s C o s t s i n the previous period Demography H o u s i n g ' S t o c k Income C o s t s ' C r e d i t C o n d i t i o n s See F i g u r e 3 See F i g u r e V a c a n c i e s Hous i ng S t a r t s V a c a n c i e s + f i n the previous Period New House C o m p l e t i o n s Demography R e l a t i v e t o H o u s i n g S tock C r e d i t S e a s o n a l ' C o n d i t i o n s ' C o n d i t i o n s P o t e n t i a l P r o f i t a b i l i t y I nves tment Per U n i t V a c a n c i e s , U n i t s Under C o n s t r u c t i o n C o n s t r u c t i o n C r e d i t S e a s o n a l S t r i k e s ' C o n d i t i o n s ' C o n d i t i o n s See F i g u r e 5 See F i g u r e 6 56 F i g - 3. M o d i f i e d P o t e n t i a l P r o f i t V a r i a b l e M o d e l E x p r e s s e d as a F u n c t i o n w = f<!\u00a7' TR' i u ) S p e c i f i c a t i o n o f t h e M o d e l W = b 0 + b l H + b 2 T R + b 3 I U Notation: PF = Po t e n t i a l P r o f i t Variable IU = Investment Required Per Unit HP = S e l l i n g Price of New Houses AC = Pre-tax Costs During Development and Marketing TR = Corporate Income Tax Rate LABOH = Labour Force STKOH = Stock of Ground Oriented Houses DIOH = Average Disposable Income CHCW = Change i n the Population, that Form Households, Relative to the Stock of Houses LABOH \/ (LABOHj STKOH 'STKOH' DIACHQW CRED (NCRED) SMCRED AMCRED G M SSFW SPRING SUMMER FALL A DIOH If negative x CHCW ^ AC If p o s i t i v e x CHCW Credit Conditions Based on the Assumption of the Symmetric (Asymmetric) E f f e c t of Credit A v a i l a b i l i t y Symmetric Market Credit Variable: Option A Asymmetric Market Credit Variable. A v a i l a b i l i t y of Favourable Government Mort-gages and Subsidies to the P r o f i t Motivated Sector Season Variables March, A p r i l May, June, July, August September, October, November F i g . 4 . S e l l i n g P r i c e R e l a t i v e t o Development C o s t s M o d e l E x p r e s s e d as a F u n c t i o n HP AC ,HP, . ,._ \u201e _ . ' \u2022 DIOH NCRED, ( A c l t + f ( C H C W ' \"AC\"' CRED S p e c i f i c a t i o n o f t h e M o d e l :  Symmetric C r e d i t V a r i a b l e HP AC (HP) b\u201e + b, DIACHCW + b\u201e SMCRED + b 0 \u00a3 0 1 2 3 M S p e c i f i c a t i o n o f t h e A l t e r n a t e M o d e l :  A s y m m e t r i c C r e d i t V a r i a b l e HP AC (IE) bn + b, DIACHCW + b 0 AMCRED + b, =r 0 1 2 3 M 5 7 F i g . 5 . I n v e n t o r y o f U n o c c u p i e d New Houses Model E x p r e s s e d a s a F u n c t i o n VC . V C . t + * < < \u2122 * . \" C ^ D . SSFW, S p e c i f i c a t i o n o f t h e M o d e l :  Symmetric C r e d i t V a r i a b l e (VC - VC_ t) - b Q + b x ^ + b 2 SMCRED + b 3 \u00a7 + b. SPRING + b c SUMMER + b, FALL 4 5 6 S p e c i f i c a t i o n o f t h e A l t e r n a t e M o d e l :  Asymmetric C r e d i t V a r i a b l e COMP G (VC - VC_ t) = b Q + b 1 + b 2 AMCRED + b 3 g + b. SPRING + b c SUMMER + b , FALL 4 5 6 Notation: VC COMP STKOH LABOH CW = Inventory of Unoccupied New Houses = P r o f i t Motivated Ground Oriented Housing Unit Completions = Stock of Ground Oriented Housing Units Labour Force = Population, that Forms Households, Relative to the I n i t i a l Stock of Houses CW = LABOH STKOH SSFW = Season Variables CRED = Credit Conditions Based on the Assumption (NCRED) of the Symmetric (Asymmetric) Ef f e c t of Credit A v a i l a b i l i t y SMCRED = Symmetric Market Credit Variable: Option A AMCRED = Asymmetric Credit Variable j | = A v a i l a b i l i t y of Favourable Government Mort-gages and Subsidies to the P r o f i t Motivated Sector SPRING = March, A p r i l SUMMER = May, June, July, August FALL = September, October, November 58 F i g . 6, P r o f i t M o t i v a t e d G r o u n d - O r i e n t e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s M o d e l E x p r e s s e d as a F u n c t i o n PSTS = f ( ||, VC, (IUCF_ T- COMP), STRIKE, N ^ D ' S S F W ) S p e c i f i c a t i o n Of t h e Model: Symmetric C r e d i t V a r i a b l e s C r e d i t V a r i a b l e : O p t i o n A C r e d i t V a r i a b l e : O p t i o n B b o + b l H + b 2 V C PSTS = b 0 + b l \u00a7 J + b 2 V C b 3 ( I U C F _ t - COMP) + b 3 ( I U C F _ t - COMP) b 4 STRIKE + b c - SMCRED 5 + b 4 STRIKE + b,. SPCRED V \u00a7 + b^ SPRING M 7 + V \u2022SGCRED + b 7 SPRING V SUMMER + b \u2022 F ALL 9 + b 8 SUMMER + b g - FALL S p e c i f i c a t i o n o f t h e A l t e r n a t e M o d e l A s y m m e t r i c C r e d i t V a r i a b l e PSTS = b Q + b r | | + b 2 - V C + b 3 ( I U C F _ t - COMP) + b 4 STRIKE + b 5 AMCRED + b g | + b 7 SPRING + b g SUMMER + b g FALL Notation: PSTS = P r o f i t Motivated Ground Oriented Housing Unit Starts PF = P o t e n t i a l P r o f i t Variable IU = Investment Required Per Unit VC = Inventory of Unoccupied New Houses IUCF = P r o f i t Motivated Ground Oriented Housing Units Under Construction COMP = P r o f i t Motivated Ground Oriented Housing Unit Completions SSFW = Season Variables SPRING = March, A p r i l SUMMER = May, June, July, August FALL = September, October, November STRIKE CRED (NCRED) SMCRED AMCRED SPCRED SGCRED G M Number of Man-days of Work Lost Attributed to Strikes in the Local Construction Industry Credit Conditions Based on the Assumption of the Symmetric (Asymmetric) E f f e c t of C r e d i t A v a i l a b i l i t y Symmetric Market Credit Variable: Option A Asymmetric C r e d i t Variable Symmetric Credit Variable: Option B Private I n s t i t u t i o n a l Lenders Symmetric Credit Variable: Option B Government Direct Lending A v a i l a b i l i t y of Favourable Government Mortgages and Subsidies to the P r o f i t Motivated Sector 59 F o o t n o t e s The O t t a w a - H u l l M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a was s e l e c t e d f o r s t u d y b e c a u s e t h e a u t h o r was employed i n t h e Ottawa a r e a when t h e d a t a c o l l e c t i o n p h a s e o f t h e s t u d y was u n d e r t a k e n , and b e c a u s e a l m o s t a l l o f t h e u r b a n d e v e l o p m e n t i n t h e r e g i o n has b een w i t h i n t h e C e n s us M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a b o u n d a r i e s . 2 A l t h o u g h t h e Community o f M a n o t i c k h a s n o t b een i n c l u d e d , i t i s v e r y s m a l l and t h e g r o w t h t h a t d i d o c c u r d u r i n g t h e s t u d y p e r i o d was i n s i g n i f i c a n t r e l a t i v e t o t h a t e x p e r i e n c e d i n t h e d e f i n e d m a r k e t a r e a . 3 The p o p u l a t i o n o f m u n i c i p a l i t i e s i n t h e O n t a r i o p o r t i o n o f t h e s t u d y a r e a has b een b a s e d on e s t i m a t e s p u b l i s h e d i n D e p a r t m e n t o f M u n i c i p a l A f f a i r s , M u n i c i p a l D i r e c t o r y ( T o r o n t o : Queen's P a r k , 1 9 6 8 ) , p. 6. and The p o p u l a t i o n i n t h e Quebec p o r t i o n o f t h e s t u d y a r e a was b a s e d on t h e sum o f t h e e s t i m a t e d p o p u l a t i o n f o r t h e C o u n t i e s o f H u l l and G a t i n e a u as p u b l i s h e d i n The F i n a n c i a l P o s t , S u r v e y o f M a r k e t s 1980\/81: and B u s i n -e s s Y e a r Book ( T o r o n t o : M a c l e a n - H u n t e r L t d . , 1 9 8 0 ) ; and The F i n a n c i a l P o s t , S u r v e y o f M a r k e t s 1967\/68: and B u s i n e s s Y e a r Book ( T o r o n t o : M a c l e a n - H u n t e r L t d . , 1 9 6 7 ) . 4 P e t e r S p u r r , L a n d and U r b a n D e v e l o p m e n t : A P r e l i m i n a r y  S t u d y ( T o r o n t o : James L o r i m e r and Company, 19 7 6 ) , p. 86. \" ' A l i c e Coleman, The P l a n n i n g C h a l l e n g e o f t h e Ottawa A r e a , G e o g r a p h i c a l P a p e r No. 42 (Ottawa: D e p a r t m e n t o f E n e r g y M i n e s and R e s o u r c e s , 1 9 6 9 ) , p. 45. 6 S p u r r , p. 88. 7 I b i d . , p. 89. Coleman, pp. 11 and 49. 9 I b i d . , pp. 44 and 58. 1 0 I b i d . , p. 60. i : i \" S p u r r , pp. 88 and 89. 1 2 I b i d . , p. 90. 13 I b i d . , pp. 93 and 95. 60 X H S e e t h e s e c t i o n . \"The P o t e n t i a l P r o f i t V a r i a b l e \" , i n Appen-d i x I \" E s t i m a t i o n Of t h e Dependent and I n d e p e n d e n t V a r i a b l e s \" , f o r a r e v i e w o f t h e r a t i o n a l e t h a t t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e s e l l i n g p r i c e o f new h o u s e s and t h e c o s t s d u r i n g d e v e l o p m e n t and m a r k e t i n g may be more I m p o r t a n t t h a n a c t u a l p r o f i t l e v e l s , t h a t i n c o r p o r a t e a l l i n v e s t m e n t c o s t s , when m o d e l l i n g t h e s h o r t - r u n b e h a v i o u r o f t h e l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t i n d u s t r y . 15 The p r o f i t a b i l i t y i n d e x ( g r o s s and n e t ) r e f l e c t s t h e r e l a -t i v e p r o f i t a b i l i t y o f v a r i o u s p r o j e c t s , and f o r t h i s r e a s o n i t w o u l d a p p e a r t o be a p p l i c a b l e t o r e f l e c t t h e r e l a t i v e r e t u r n s t o s c a r c i t y f o r l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t o v e r t h e s t u d y p e r i o d . George C. P h i l i p p a t o s , E s s e n t i a l s o f F i n a n c i a l Management:  T e x t and C a s e s ( T o r o n t o : H o l d e n - D a y I n c . , 1 9 7 4 ) , pp. 87 and 89. \"^The c a p a b i l i t y o f t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t t o r e s p o n d q u i c k l y t o r e l a t i v e p r i c e movements has b e en i n d i c a t e d by t h e r a p i d i n c r e a s e i n h o u s i n g s t a r t s i n 1973, when house p r i c e s r o s e f a s t e r t h a n de-v e l o p m e n t c o s t s . C o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h i s phenomena i s t h e o b s e r v a -t i o n t h a t d e v e l o p e r s m a i n t a i n a s u b s t a n t i a l s u p p l y o f l o t s , as n o t e d by S p u r r . S p u r r , p. 71. 17 The t i m i n g scheme u s e d i n t h i s t h e s i s was t h e same as t h a t u s e d by S p u r r . However, c o r r o b o r a t i o n o f t h e f e a s i b i l i t y o f t h e s e l e c t e d t i m e s e n a r i o was made w i t h a number o f Ottawa e n g i n e e r i n g f i r m s i n M a r c h o f 1979. S p u r r , p. 52. 18 O n l y p r e - t a x e x p e n d i t u r e s were c o n s i d e r e d s i n c e income t a x e s w o u l d be s u b j e c t t o t h e p r o c e e d s o f s a l e and n o t e x c l u s i v e l y a d d i t i o n a l i n v e s t m e n t i n c u r r e d t o d e v e l o p and m a r k e t a p r o p e r t y . A l t h o u g h b o r r o w e d f u n d s w o u l d n o t l i k e l y be r e p a i d u n t i l a p r o p e r -t y has b e en s o l d , o n l y t h e p r i n c i p a l r e p a y m e n t o f a m o r t g a g e t o a c q u i r e l a n d has b e en e x c l u d e d i n o r d e r t o i n c l u d e a l l t h e e x p e n -d i t u r e s i n c u r r e d d u r i n g d e v e l o p m e n t as w e l l as t o s i m p l i f y t h e e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e v a r i a b l e . 19 The e s t i m a t e d i n v e s t m e n t r e q u i r e d t o d e v e l o p and m a r k e t s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s was w e i g h t e d by t h e p r e v a i l i n g p r o p o r -t i o n o f t h e t o t a l number o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s t h a t were s i n g l e f a m i l y d w e l l i n g s ( i . e . s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d , s e m i -d e t a c h e d , and d u p l e x e s ) . S i m i l a r l y , t h e e s t i m a t e d i n v e s t m e n t r e -q u i r e d t o d e v e l o p and m a r k e t row d w e l l i n g s was w e i g h t e d by t h e p r e v a i l i n g p r o p o r t i o n o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s t h a t were ro w h o u s e s . A l t h o u g h no a t t e m p t was made t o d e t e r m i n e t h e i n v e s t -ment t h a t w o u l d be r e q u i r e d f o r s e m i - d e t a c h e d o r d u p l e x h o u s e s , i t was assumed t h a t d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h i s t y p e was more l i k e t h a t o f s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s e s . 2 0 F o r a r e v i e w o f t h e s p e c i f i c v a r i a b l e s u s e d t o i n d i c a t e c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s , see t h e s e c t i o n \" C r e d i t C o n d i t i o n s \" i n Appen-d i x I \" E s t i m a t i o n o f t h e D ependent and I n d e p e n d e n t V a r i a b l e s \" . CHAPTER V I ESTIMATING THE HOUSING MARKET MODEL Supp 1 ernentary Mode 1 s I n t r o d u c t i o n E s t i m a t e s were made o f t h e m o d i f i e d p o t e n t i a l p r o f i t v a r i -a b l e , t h e r a t i o o f new house p r i c e s t o b e f o r e t a x c o s t s d u r i n g d e v e l o p m e n t and m a r k e t i n g , and t h e i n v e n t o r y o f u n o c c u p i e d new h o u s e s as f u n c t i o n s o f t h e i r r e s p e c t i v e d e t e r m i n i n g v a r i a b l e s . T h e s e e s t i m a t e s were made t o p r o v i d e e v i d e n c e o f t h e e n d o g e n e i t y o f t h e s e v a r i a b l e s i n t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s model and t o i d e n t i f y a d d i t i o n a l v a r i a b l e s r e q u i r e d t o e s t i m a t e t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s model u s i n g t h e t w o - s t a g e l e a s t s q u a r e s t e c h n i q u e . M o d i f i e d P o t e n t i a l P r o f i t V a r i a b l e The p o t e n t i a l d e s i r e d number o f h o u s i n g u n i t s u n d e r c o n -s t r u c t i o n was i n d i c a t e d by t h e r a t i o o f t h e g r o s s p r o f i t a b i l i t y i n d e x (PF) t o t h e i n v e s t m e n t r e q u i r e d p e r u n i t i n d e x ( I U ) . The PF combined v a r i a b l e (jjj) r o r m o d i f i e d p o t e n t i a l p r o f i t v a r i a b l e h as been e s t i m a t e d as a s i n g l e l i n e a r f u n c t i o n o f t h e r a t i o o f house p r i c e s (HP) t o b e f o r e t a x c o s t s d u r i n g d e v e l o p m e n t and m a r k e t i n g (AC), t h e c o r p o r a t e income t a x r a t e f o r O n t a r i o ( T R ) , and t h e i n v e s t m e n t r e q u i r e d p e r u n i t i n d e x ( I U ) . The model was s p e c i f i e d a s shown i n e x p r e s s i o n 6.1: W = b 0 + b l + b 2 T R + b 3 1 0 6 ' 1 61 62 u s i n g t h r e e month a v e r a g e s o f t h e d e p e n d e n t and t h e d e t e r m i n i n g v a r i a b l e s . U s i n g t h e C o c h r a n e - O r e u t t t e c h n i q u e and m o n t h l y d a t a f r o m 1968 t o 1977, t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s o f t h e model were e s t i m a t e d as follows:\"'' | ^ = 2.006358 + t s t a t i s t i c 59.943 F s t a t i s t i c .422639 (||) 29.534 872.697 190392 TR - 1.323962 IU -4.109 16.881 -115.127 132591972 O v e r a l l F s t a t i s t i c = 5063.604 S t a n d a r d e r r o r o f t h e e s t i m a t e = .00259 Time s e q u e n c e p l o t o f r e s i d u a l s F r e q u e n c y o f r e s i d u a l s : P l o t o f t h e r e s i d u a l s a g a i n s t t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e : D u r b i n - W a t s o n s t a t i s t i c = 2.02399 A l t h o u g h t h e r e a p p e a r e d t o be some t e n d e n c y f o r v a l u e s o f a s i m i l a r s i g n o r m a g n i t u d e t o f o l l o w s e q u e n t i a l l y , t h e r e was no l o n g - r u n c o n s i s t e n c y (as shown i n F i g u r e 7 . a ) . The f r e q u e n c y o f r e s i d u a l v a l u e s p r o v i d e d e v i d e n c e o f a n o r m a l d i s t r i b u t i o n (as shown i n F i g u r e 7.b) . T h e r e a p p e a r e d t o be no a p p a r e n t t e n d e n c y o f t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e t o r e s p o n d t o c h a n g e s i n t h e r e s i d u a l (as shown i n F i g u r e 7 . c ) . C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t i n c o n s e c u t i v e r e s i d u a l s s q u a r e d 000248 PF C o m p a r i s o n o f a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s o f (1968-1977) P l o t s o f t h e a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s : P r o p o r t i o n o f t u r n s i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e e s t i m a t e d c o r r e c t l y C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t The p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a p p e a r e d t o t r a c e t h e a c t u a l v a l u e s adequate-l y (as shown i n F i g u r e 7 . d ) . = 100 p e r c e n t 9981 R s q u a r e d = .9961 (,2 F i g . 7 . a . Time Sequence P l o t o f R e s i d u a l s F i g . 7 . c . R e s i d u a l A g a i n s t t h e E s t i m a t e P l o t 7.01 nor ;i50E-ci Jiilj. ,551t-\u00ab .190E-C -.Z7K-L ANALYSIS OF RESIDUALS I.IS!' >.itn (.1511 MODIFIED POTENTIAL PROFIT VARIABLE PF IU (Based on Transformed Variables) -HOI\u2014 lilt mi F i g . 7.b. F r e q u e n c y o f R e s i d u a l s _o,i!o;_ _7*B1 0.1\u00bb0)__ 730* o.lttt not O.UOJ noj o.in\u00ab fJO! 0.11B1 7*12 0.1*!! d.iut .L*JH-Cd \u2022 >.u*o - 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 + Number of Standard Deviations From the Mean I.1SJ7 l.ltli-g.DH !i \"u-o 0~i 64 F i g . ,7-..d. P l o t o f t h e A c t u a l and P r e d i c t e d Time S e r i e s ( Modified P o t e n t i a l PF 1968-1977 P r o f i t Variable IU PLOT Of ACTUAL ! \u2022> AND F I T T E D < \u00ab > V \u00bb L U E S p L C T CF R E S I O U A L S ( C ) .... I D \u00bb.C_T U \u00bb L f I ; I L O . 7712 1 . 256 1 .256 7711 1 . 2 2 2 \u2022 . 233 7710 1 . 2 : 6 1 .257 7709 i . 2 3 2 1 . 2 12 .-7-7-0 8-. . 1 .241 . _ .1 .240 7707 1 . 2 6 2 '. . 2 60 77C6 1 . i 3 6 1 .227 7705 1 .286 1 .283 7704 1.2 80 i . 2 7 ' 770 3 1 .201 1 .159 . .77,0 2 . 1 .266 1. 264 770 1 1 .257 1 . 2 9 3 7612 1 . 348 1 . 238 7611 1 .225 1 .217 7610 i . 2 9 4 1 .290 7609 1 .296 1. 2*1 76C6. . 1 .280 1 .276 760 7 1 .225 1 .223 7606 1 .191 1. 187 7605 1 .225 1 .235 7604 1 .347 1. 2 3 7 760 ! 1 .242 1 .237 7602 1 . 276 1 . 2 7 6 760 1 1 .217 1 .216 7512 1 .211 1 . 210 7511 1 .247 1 . 247 751C 1 .256 -..255 7509 1 . 2 7 9 1 .277 . 7 5 0 8 . 1 .285 1 . 2 3 4 750 7 1 . 2 7 * 1 .274 75C6 1 .287 1 .28? 7505 1 .225 1 .225 7504 1 .261 1 .270 7503 1 .286 1 . 255 7502. 1 .288 1. 295 75C1 1 .256 1. 264 7412 1 .240 1 .249 7411 1 .311 1 .215 \u2022 741C 1 .284 1 .250 7409 1 .234 1 .242 7408 1 .202 1. 210 7407 1 .231 1. 240 7406 1-279 1 .266 7405 1 . 2 6 6 1 .272 7404 1 . 2 4 8 1 .252 740 3 1 .244 1. 2 4 ' 740 2 1.2 4 9 1 .252 740 1 1 .255 1 .257 7312 1 . 2 4 8 1 .250 7311 1 .241 1. 243 731C 1 .252 1. 25} 7309 1 .275 1 .274 7308 1 .224 1 .236 730 7 1.1 74 1 .175 7306 1 .12C 1 .117 7305 1 . 1 2 5 1 . 1 2 \u00b0 730 4 1-14S 1. 152 730 3 1 . 1 3 2 1. 134 . 7302 1 . 1 1 4 1. 114 730 1 1 . 1 0 5 1. 104 7212 1 .112 1 .112 7211 1 .142 1. 146 7210 1 . 1 6 4 1 .169 7209 1 .172 1. 180 7208 1 . 1 3 8 - 1. 143 7207 1 . 1 2 7 1 .132 720 6 1 .125 1.121 7205 1 . 1 2 0 1 .127 7204 1 . 0 8 7 1 . 0 6 8 720 3 1 .111 1 .117 .7202 - 1 . 1 1 5 1. 123 720 1 1 . 1 4 4 1 . 156 7112 1 .102 1.111 7111 1 .121 1. 131 7110 1 . C 9 C 1 .094 7109 1 . 1 1 4 1 . 1 2 2 7108 1 .0 95 1. C99 7107 1 . 1 1 6 1 . 121 7106 1 . 1 0 8 1. 110 7105 1 . 1 0 5 1. 110 7104 1 . 0 8 8 1 .086 7103 1.0 85 1 .062 7102 1 . 0 8 2 1 . 0 7 8 7101 1 .092 1. 089 7012 1 . 1 0 5 1 .109 7011 1 . 1 2 6 1 .127 701C 1 .135 1. 137 7009 1 .115 1. 114 7 008 1 . 1 1 4 1 .112 7 0 0 7 1 .10C 1 . 0 5 6 7006 1 . 0 8 7 1 .080 7C05 1 . 0 7 6 1 . C 6 6 7004 1 .075 1 .070 7003 l.cei 1 .072 7.00 2. 1.0.S5... 1 . 0 8 9 7001 1 . 1 0 C 1 .094 6912 1 . 1 1 5 1 .116 6911 1 .110 1. 105 691C 1 . 1 3 5 1 .133 6 9 0 9 1 .152 1 . 151 ... 69.0 8 . 1 . 1 7 C 1.171 6907 1 .141 1 .141 69 0 6 1 .110 1. 106 6 9 0 5 1 . 0 9 5 1 .093 6 9 0 * 1 . 0 9 7 1 .091 6 9 0 3 1 .101 1 .096 . 6902 1 .101 1 .056 6901 1 . 1 0 5 1. 106 6812 1 . 1 0 4 1 .100 6811 1 .128 1. 128 6810 1 .151 1 .153 6809 1 . 1 4 6 1. 145 1 . 1 1 5 1,-11.0. 6907 1-097 1 .089 6 8 0 6 1 .111 1 .107 6805 1 . 1 2 4 ^ 1 .122 6804 1 . 1 1 5 1.111 6 3 0 3 1 . 1 2 5 1. 124 Modified P o t e n t i a l PF P r o f i t Variable IU . 8 .642-03 0 - . 1 5 4 E - 0 3 . 1 0 1 E - 0 3 0 . 6 0 I t - 0 4 .51 E E - 0 3 0 \u2022 1 6 1 E - 0 2 0 . 9 5 4 2 - 0 2 . 22 2E-02 0 . . 2 4 f E - 0 2 0 . . 2 1 0 E - 0 2 0 . . 1 7 5 E - 0 2 0 . .2 97E-02 0 . . 1 0 1 E - 0 1 . 7 & 0 E - 0 2 . 4 5 1 E - 0 2 . 5 1 5 E - 0 2 . 0 . 3 9 S E - 0 2 a . . 2 2 7 E - 0 2 0 . 3 6 7 E - 0 2 0 . . 1 9 EE-02 0 . . 9 7 tE-02 . E B 3 E - 0 2 . 1 7 IE-02 . 0 \u2022 \u2022 1 0 5 E - 0 2 c . 5 6 2 E - 0 2 c \u2022595E-C3 0 . 5 1 2 E - 0 2 c \u2022122E-02 0 . 1 0 5 E - 0 2 0 - . 6 36E-04 - . 2 3 7 E - 0 2 c - . 6 6 1 E - 0 2 0 . - . 9 1 6 E - 0 2 0 - . 7 2 6E-C2 \u2022 0 - . 7 7 6 E - 0 2 0 . - . 6 6 a E - 0 2 0 - . & 7 C E - C 2 0 - . 3 4 7 E - 0 2 0 - . 6 3 6 E - C 2 0 . - . E 1 3 E - 0 2 0 - . 7 5 2E-02 3 . - . S 7 9 E - C 2 0 - . 6 2 2 E - 0 2 0 . - . 5 6 2 E - 0 2 0 . - . 4 1 S E \"02 - . 3 5 8 E - 0 2 0 - . 2 6 J E - 0 Z 0 - . 2 1 6 E - 0 2 0 - . 2 6 8 E - C 2 0 - . 2 3 0 E - 0 2 c - . 1 4 8 E - 0 2 0 . 6 2 0 E -03 . 0 -. .19 1 _E_^ 0 _ -C - . 1 5 1E-02 0 . 3 7 IE-02 0 . \u2022 4 0 5 E - 0 3 - . 2 6 4 E - 0 2 0 - . 2 2 6 E - C 2 0 . 65 6E-04 . 1 2 2 E - 0 2 . 0 \u2022862E-03 . 0 - . 2 0 S E - 0 2 0 - . 5 4 5 E - 0 2 0 - . 7 2 7 E - 0 2 0 - . 5 S 6 E - C 2 0 - . 5 1 E E - C 2 0 - . 5 9 1 E - C 2 0 - . 6 6 4 E - 0 2 0 - . 1 4 1 E - 0 2 . 0 - . 5 6 0 E - C 2 0 - . 7 7 4 E - C 2 u - . 1 1 5 E - C 1 C - . E 0 1 E - C 2 0 - . 9 2 1 E - C 2 0 - . 4 2 2 E - C 2 - . 6 0 3 E - C 2 0 - . 2 8 8 E - C 2 . 0 - . 4 6 8E-02 - . 1 5 4 E - 0 2 . 0 - . 1 0 7E-02 0 . . 2 6 7 E - 0 2 . 0 . . 3 6 0E-02 0 . . 4 2 1 E - C 2 \u2022 2 4 4 E - C 2 . 0 . - . 1 3 8E-03 - . 1 * I E - 0 2 . 0 - . 1 5 3 E - 0 2 . 0 .1 22E-02 . 0 . 1 7 0 E - 0 2 . 0 . .41 1E-02 0 . . 7 0 5 E - C 2 . 9 b 5 E - C 2 -951E-02 \u2022922E-C2 . 6 8 4 E - 0 2 . 6 4 3E-02 . J 6 5 E - 0 2 0 . \u2022540E-02 . 1 9 2 E - C 2 . 0. . . 1 9 2E-03 - . 1 4 2E-02 . 0 \u2022 3 4 1 E - 0 3 . 3 7 1E-C2 0 . . 5 4 (E-C2 . 5 5 4E-C2 . 5 1 E E - 0 2 . 5 0 7 E - 0 2 \u202233EE-C2 0 . . 4 3 3E-C2 . 5 9 1E-03 . 0 - . 1 7 5 E - 0 2 . 0 \u2022 1 0 6 E - 0 2 . 0 .465E-_C2. . . . p - 7 6 5 E - C 2 \u2022 3 5 6 E - C 2 0 . . 1 9 5 E - C 2 . 0 . . 3 2 4 E - C 2 . N c . \u2022 1 1 7 E - 0 2 . 0 65 R o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d - e r r o r . 0 0 4 9 5 0 as a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean = i * 18192 = - ^ \u00b0 4 2 v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e Mean a b s o l u t e e r r o r as a . Q04014 p e r c e n t o f t h e mean v a l u e = i i g . 1 9 2 = o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e The C o c h r a n e - O r c u t t t e c h n i q u e was u s e d t o e l i m i n a t e a u t o -c o r r e l a t i o n i n t h e r e s i d u a l s w h i c h was e v i d e n t when t h e o r d i n a r y l e a s t \u2022 s q u a r e s t e c h n i q u e was u s e d . A l l t h e v a r i a b l e s and t h e i r c o e f f i c i e n t s had t h e c o r r e c t s i g n , were s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t t h a n z e r o a t t h e .05 l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e , and c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e e x p l a i n e d sum o f s q u a r e s (as i n d i c a t e d by t h e \" t \" and \" F \" s t a t i s -t i c s ) . I n a d d i t i o n , t h e model a p p e a r e d t o a d e q u a t e l y t r a c e t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e and t h e R s q u a r e d v a l u e w o u l d a p p e a r t o be h i g h and c o n f i r m t h e a d e q u a t e n e s s o f t h e m o d e l . The r e v i e w o f t h e r e s i d u a l s i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e p r e c o n d i t i o n s f o r r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s had n o t been v i o l a t e d . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e D u r b i n - W a t s o n s t a t i s t i c was c l o s e t o t h e v a l u e o f 2 and t h e c o r r e l a t i o n c o -e f f i c i e n t i n c o n s e c u t i v e r e s i d u a l s s q u a r e d was n o t s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t t h a n z e r o a t t h e .05 l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e , i n d i c a t i n g t h a t t h e h y p o t h e s i s o f a u t o c o r r e l a t i o n i n t h e r e s i d u a l s may be r e j e c t e d . House P r i c e s R e l a t i v e t o C o s t s The s e l l i n g p r i c e o f new h o u s e s (HP) r e l a t i v e t o b e f o r e t a x c o s t s d u r i n g d e v e l o p m e n t and m a r k e t i n g (AC) has been e s t i m a t e d as a f u n c t i o n o f t h e s e l l i n g p r i c e r e l a t i v e t o c o s t s i n t h e p r e v i o u s HP p e r i o d (^7=;) , t h e change i n income r e l a t i v e t o p r e - t a x c o s t s - t OHDY ( A A n ), t h e change i n t h e h o u s e h o l d f o r m i n g p o p u l a t i o n r e l a t i v e LABOH t o t h e s t o c k o f h o u s e s (c,mt.^\u201e) i n d i c a t e d by t h e p r e v a i l i n g v a l u e o IK.On o f t h e s t o c k r e l a t i v e t o v a l u e i n t h e p r e v i o u s p e r i o d (CHCW = 66 LABQK, ^ LABOH)\u2022 ^ a & ^ e l l a a c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s b a s e d on t h e assump-STKOH' STKOE^ t i o n o f t h e s y m m e t r i c (CRED = SMCRED, |) o r a s y m m e t r i c (NCRED = AMCRED, -) e f f e c t o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y . The m o d e l was s p e c i f i e d ' M as shown i n e x p r e s s i o n 6.2: 1 - ' \u00a9 T + B 0 + b l D I A C H C W + B 2 < NC^D> 6.2 N T , P \u2122 _ A DIOH I f n e g a t i v e x CHCW 1 DIACHCW - -jg- I f p o s i f c i v e x Cf,cw u s i n g t h r e e month a v e r a g e s o f t h e d e p e n d e n t and d e t e r m i n i n g v a r i -a b l e s , e x c e p t f o r v a l u e s i n t h e p r e v i o u s p e r i o d when e s t i m a t e s f o r t h e month p r e c e d i n g t h e p e r i o d were u s e d . F u r t h e r m o r e , s i x month a v e r a g e s o f t h e c r e d i t v a r i a b l e s were u s e d i n t e s t i n g an a d d i t i o n -a l v e r s i o n o f t h e m o d e l . U s i n g t h e C o c h r a n e - O r c u t t t e c h n i q u e and m o n t h l y d a t a f r o m 1968 t o 1977 t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s o f t h e s p e c i f i e d 2 model were e s t i m a t e d as f o l l o w s : 1. Symmetric C r e d i t V a r i a b l e HE. _ (55.) = .019027 + .035215 DIACHCW - .000360 SMCRED AC A C _ t t s t a t i s t i c F s t a t i s t i c 1.836 5.451 29.673 -1.895 3.532 O v e r a l l F s t a t i s t i c = 14.90505 S t a n d a r d e r r o r o f t h e e s t i m a t e = .01477 Time s e q u e n c e p l o t o f r e s i d u a l s : F r e q u e n c y o f r e s i d u a l s : A l t h o u g h t h e r e a p p e a r e d t o be some t e n d e n c y f o r v a l u e s o f a s i m i l a r s i g n o r m a g n i t u d e t o f o l l o w s e q u e n t i a l l y , t h e r e was no l o n g - r u n c o n s i s t e n c y (as shown i n F i g u r e 8 . a ) . The f r e q u e n c y o f r e s i d u a l v a l u e s p r o v i d e d e v i d e n c e o f a n o r m a l d i s t r i b u t i o n (as shown i n F i g u r e 8 . b ) . F i g . 8 . a . Time Sequence P l o t F i g . 8 . c . R e s i d u a l A g a i n s t o f R e s i d u a l s t h e E s t i m a t e P l o t F r o m t h e Mean 68 F i g . 8..d. P l o t o f t h e A c t u a L a n d P r e d i c t e d Time S e r i e s ( H o u s e ^ \" t f 1 \" ^ 8 ! ) 1 9 6 8 - 1 9 7 7 PLOT OF A C T U A L f . * ) AND F 1 T T E 0 ( \u00bb > V A L U E S C L O T OF R E S I D U A L S ( O ) A C T U A L _F_[T_TE0 R E S I O U A L 69 P l o t o f t h e r e s i d u a l s a g a i n s t t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e : D u r b i n - W a t s o n s t a t i s t i c = 1.92169 T h e r e a p p e a r e d t o be no a p p a r e n t t e n d e n c y o f t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e t o r e s p o n d t o c h a n g e s i n t h e r e s i d u a l (as shown i n F i g u r e 8 . c ) . C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t i n c o n s e c u t i v e r e s i d u a l s s q u a r e d = .0017 HP C o m p a r i s o n o f a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s o f ^ (1968-1977) P l o t s o f t h e a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s : P r o p o r t i o n o f t u r n s i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e e s t i m a t e d c o r r e c t l y The p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a p p e a r e d t o t r a c e t h e a c t u a l v a l u e a d e q u a t e -l y (as shown i n F i g u r e 8 . d ) . = 64.4 p e r c e n t C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t = R o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d - e r r o r as a p e r c e n t o f t h e = mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e 9812 R s q u a r e d = .9628 .01984 = .0162 1.224 Mean a b s o l u t e e r r o r as a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e = .01579 = .0129 1.224 2. A s y m m e t r i c C r e d i t V a r i a b l e - = .025144 + .035229 t t s t a t i s t i c 1.800 5.428 F s t a t i s t i c - 29.485 O v e r a l l F s t a t i s t i c = 14.779 S t a n d a r d e r r o r o f t h e e s t i m a t e = Time s e q u e n c e p l o t o f r e s i d u a l s : DIACHCW - .000424 AMCRED -1.844 3.365 .01479 A l t h o u g h t h e r e a p p e a r e d t o be some t e n d e n c y f o r v a l u e s o f a s i m i l a r s i g n o r m a g n i t u d e t o f o l l o w s e q u e n t i a l l y , t h e r e was no l o n g - r u n c o n s i s t e n c y (as shown i n F i g u r e 9 . a ) . 70 Frequency^ o f r e s i d u a l s : P l o t o f r e s i d u a l s a g a i n s t t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e : The f r e q u e n c y o f r e s i d u a l v a l u e s p r o v i d e d e v i d e n c e o f a n o r m a l d i s t r i b u t i o n (as shown i n F i g u r e 9..b). T h e r e a p p e a r e d t o be no a p p a r e n t t e n d e n c y o f t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e t o r e s p o n d t o c h a n g e s i n t h e r e s i d u a l (as shown i n F i g u r e 9 . c ) . D u r b i n - W a t s o n s t a t i s t i c = 1.91373 C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t i n c o n s e c u t i v e r e s i d u a l s s q u a r e d = .0023 C o m p a r i s o n o f a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s o f HP AC (1968-1977) P l o t s o f t h e a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s : P r o p o r t i o n o f t u r n s i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e e s t i m a t e d c o r r e c t l y The p r e d i c t e d v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a p p e a r e d t o t r a c e t h e a c t u a l v a l u e s adequate-l y (as shown i n F i g u r e 9.d). = 6 0.7 p e r c e n t C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t = R o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d - e r r o r as a p e r c e n t o f t h e = mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e Mean a b s o l u t e e r r o r a s a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean = v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e 9811 R s q u a r e d = .9626 .01977 1.224 = .0162 01570 1.224 = .0128 The C o c h r a n e - O r c u t t t e c h n i q u e was u s e d t o e l i m i n a t e a u t o -c o r r e l a t i o n i n t h e r e s i d u a l s w h i c h was e v i d e n t when o r d i n a r y l e a s t s q u a r e s was u s e d . S i n c e t h e u s e o f s i x month a v e r a g e s o f t h e s y m m e t r i c and a s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t v a r i a b l e s a p p e a r e d t o p r o v i d e t h e b e s t r e s u l t s i n t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s m o d e l , o n l y t h e s e r e s u l t s have been r e p o r t e d . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f f a v o u r a b l e government m o r t g a g e s and s u b s i d i e s v a r i a b l e (\u2014), was d e l e t e d i n ,HP, t h e h o u s e p r i c e - d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s (^) m o d e l , s i n c e i t d i d n o t p r o v e s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t t h a n z e r o a t t h e .05 l e v e l o f c o n -f i d e n c e . F i g . 9 . a . Time Sequence P l o t o f R e s i d u a l s F i g . 9.c. R e s i d u a l A g a i n s t t h e E s t i m a t e P l o t no a mo no* MM noi t*oi 1*02 tlot no? no* -tmE-os .ll\u00bb7E-05 -ltm-05 .2752E-02 -.2*t2\u00a3-tl 7)11 7510 7Wt 7507 750! 7507 .52\u00bbOE-0! -U\u00bb2E-05 \u2022 um-os 7*10 7*0* 7*0* 7*04 7*0! 7*07 .11*71 TJ5-.lllIC-05 .iim-o5 .ll\u00bb2E -05 .ll\u00bb7E-05 .um-05 \u2022.io*5E-c; \u2022.1771E-D1 -imE-oi -.**05E-0 . n\u00bb6E-<3 I7WE-C J77\u00bbE-02 .J27EE-C. '.*01tE~<2 -.10MC-0 \u2022*5l5*E-0 \u2022 US2E-05 .ll\u00bb2T-05 .U92E-03 .lim-03 .ll*2E-05 \u2022 U\u00bb2E *0* -iu?t-95 \u2022 US2E-05 -ll\u00bb2E-0J -IH2E-05 .S\u00bb*\u00a3-02 -.l'lt-01 ~?*\u00ab-0l \u2022-122E-01 \u2022.177E-01 ;7rr7E-\u00abi\u2014 -.*7iT-o' -327E-01 -ill'E-Ol-\" -.*\u00bb!\u00a3-\u00ab ANALYSIS OF RESIDUALS HOUSE PRICES RELATIVE TO COSTS\u2014ESTIMATE 2 (Based on Transformed Variables) |r F i g . 9. b. 4...L. F r e q u e n c y o f R e s i d u a l s Number of Standard Deviations From the Mean '\u00a395r-C!\u2014 72 F i g . 9.d. Plot of the Actual and Predicted Time Series (House Prices Relative HP ) 1968-1977 _ ^ To Costs AC PL3T CF A C r U A L C ) AND F ITTED(\u00bb> VALUES PLOT OF RESIOUAtS(O) ACTUAL F ITTEO RESIOUAL 6 60 7 6606 6805 680 4 680 3 1.154 1.166 1.177 1.177 1.166 7 3 I n g e n e r a l , e s t i m a t e s o f t h e house p r i c e - d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s HP ^AC^ m o d e l , u s i n g t h e s y m m e t r i c and a s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t v a r i a b l e G ( w i t h o u t t h e ^ v a r i a b l e ) , p r o v i d e d c o e f f i c i e n t s t h a t h a d t h e c o r r e c t s i g n , were s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t t h a n z e r o a t t h e .05 l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e , and i n d i c a t e d t h e s e l e c t e d d e t e r m i n i n g v a r i -a b l e s c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e e x p l a i n e d sum o f s q u a r e s (as i n d i c a t e d by t h e \" t \" and \"F\" s t a t i s t i c s ) . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e e s t i m a t e s a p p e a r e d t o a d e q u a t e l y t r a c e t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e and t h e R s q u a r e d v a l u e s w o u l d a p p e a r t o be l a r g e and c o n f i r m t h e a d e q u a t e -n e s s o f t h e model u s i n g e i t h e r t h e s y m m e t r i c o r a s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t v a r i a b l e . The r e v i e w o f t h e r e s i d u a l s i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e p r e c o n d i -t i o n s f o r r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s had n o t b een v i o l a t e d . F u r t h e r -more, t h e D u r b i n - W a t s o n s t a t i s t i c was c l o s e t o t h e v a l u e o f 2 and t h e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t i n c o n s e c u t i v e r e s i d u a l s s q u a r e d was n o t s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t t h a n z e r o a t t h e .05 l e v e l o f c o n f i -d e n c e , i n d i c a t i n g t h a t t h e h y p o t h e s i s o f a u t o c o r r e l a t i o n i n t h e r e s i d u a l s may be r e j e c t e d . A c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e h o u s e p r i c e -d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s model u s i n g t h e s y m m e t r i c and a s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t c o n d i t o n s v a r i a b l e s , p r o v i d e d l i t t l e e v i d e n c e t o s u p p o r t t h e h y p o t h e s i s o f t h e s y m m e t r i c e f f e c t o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y i n f a v o u r o f s u p p o r t o f t h e h y p o t h e s i s o f t h e a s y m m e t r i c e f f e c t . However, t h e u s e o f t h e s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e p r o -v i d e d e s t i m a t e s o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e w h i c h c o r r e c t l y p r e -d i c t e d a h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e t u r n s . F u r t h e r m o r e , when t h r e e month a v e r a g e s o f t h e c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e s were u s e d , o n l y t h e c o e f f i c i e n t o f t h e c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e b a s e d on t h e a s s u m p t i o n o f t h e s y m m e t r i c e f f e c t o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y was 74 c o n s i s t e n t l y s i g n i f i c a n t t h a n z e r o a t t h e .05 l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e . I n v e n t o r y o f U n o c c u p i e d New Houses The i n v e n t o r y o f u n o c c u p i e d new g r o u n d o r i e n t e d h o u s e s (VC) has b e en e s t i m a t e d a s a f u n c t i o n o f t h e i n v e n t o r y o f u n o c c u p i e d h o u s e s a t t h e end o f t h e p r e v i o u s p e r i o d (VC) , t h e number o f - t c o m p l e t i o n s o f p r o f i t m o t i v a t e d g r o u n d o r i e n t e d h o u s e s i n t h e c u r r e n t p e r i o d (COMP), t h e s i z e o f t h e p o p u l a t i o n t h a t f o r m h o u s e -h o l d s r e l a t i v e t o t h e s t o c k o f h o u s e s a t t h e b e g i n n i n g o f t h e LABOH c u r r e n t p e r i o d (CW = c,rT,vr,\u201e ) , c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s b a s e d on t h e \u00b0 G a s s u m p t i o n o f t h e s y m m e t r i c (CRED = SMCRED, ^) as a s y m m e t r i c (NCRED = AMCRED, ^) e f f e c t o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y , a s w e l l a s s e a s o n v a r i a b l e s (SPRING, SUMMER, FALL, WINTER - SSFW). The model was s p e c i f i e d as shown i n e x p r e s s i o n 6.3: VC = V C _ t + b Q + b x ( C \u2122 P ) + b 2 (Ngjjj\u00a3) + b 3 (SSFW) 6.3 u s i n g t h r e e month a v e r a g e s o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e , and t h e p o p u l a t i o n t h a t f o r m s h o u s e h o l d s , as w e l l a s t h r e e and s i x month a v e r a g e s o f t h e c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e ; t h e sum o f m o n t h l y v a l u e s f o r t h e number o f c o m p l e t i o n s and s e a s o n v a r i a b l e s ; and t h e v a l u e a t t h e end o f t h e p r e c e d i n g month f o r t h e v a l u e s i n t h e p r e v i o u s p e r i o d . U s i n g t h e C o c h r a n e - O r c u t t t e c h n i q u e and m o n t h l y d a t a f r o m 1968 t o 1977 t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s o f t h e s p e c i f i e d m odel 3 were e s t i m a t e d a s f o l l o w s : 1. Symmetric C r e d i t V a r i a b l e C O M P VC - VC . = - 313.758172 + .478538 ( ^ f 1 ) + 1.856112 SMCRED \u2014 t CW t s t a t i s t i c -4.000 4.488 2.118 F s t a t i s t i c - 20.142 4.485 75 - 36.5553 SPRING - 65.19245 F A L L t s t a t i s t i c -1.698 -3.631 F s t a t i s t i c 2.833 13.181 O v e r a l l F s t a t i s t i c = 8.550 S t a n d a r d e r r o r o f t h e e s t i m a t e = 135.969 Time s e q u e n c e p l o t o f r e s i d u a l s : F r e q u e n c y o f r e s i d u a l s : P l o t o f r e s i d u a l s a g a i n s t t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e : A l t h o u g h t h e r e a p p e a r e d t o be some t e n d e n c y f o r v a l u e s o f a s i m i l a r s i g n o r m a g n i t u d e t o f o l l o w s e q u e n t i a l l y , t h e r e was no l o n g - r u n c o n s i s t e n c y (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 0 . a ) . The f r e q u e n c y o f r e s i d u a l v a l u e s p r o v i d e d e v i d e n c e o f a n o r m a l d i s t r i b u t i o n (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 0 . b ) . T h e r e a p p e a r e d t o be no a p p a r e n t t e n d e n c y o f t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e t o r e s p o n d t o c h a n g e s i n t h e r e s i d u a l (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 0 . c ) . D u r b i n - W a t s o n s t a t i s t i c = 1.85872 C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t i n c o n s e c u t i v e r e s i d u a l s s q u a r e d = .00275 C o m p a r i s o n o f a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s o f VC (1968-1977) P l o t o f t h e a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s : P r o p o r t i o n o f t u r n s i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e e s t i m a t e d c o r r e c t l y The p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a p p e a r e d t o t r a c e t h e a c t u a l v a l u e s a d e q u a t e -l y (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 0 . d ) . = 49.6 p e r c e n t C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t = R o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d - e r r o r as a p e r c e n t o f t h e = mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e Mean a b s o l u t e e r r o r as a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean = v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e . 8 6 1 1 1 4 2 . 6 4 9 1 . 8 1 0 7 . 6 4 9 1 . 8 R s q u a r e d = .7416 2900 = . 2 1 8 8 F i g . 1 0 . a . Time Sequence P l o t of Residuals F i g . 1 0 . c . Residual Against the Estimate P l o t rati -m.i 7001 .JWSE-C !J*\/*E-C ANALYSIS OF RESIDUALS INVENTORY OF UNOCCUPIED NEW HOUSES\u2014ESTIMATE 1 (Based on Transformed Variables) F i g . 10.b. Frequency of Residuals -3 2 1 0 1 2 3 + Number of Standard Deviations From the Mean n i l JE.\u00ab mi -u.si mi -.iW\u00a3-0 ii*1SE-CS .J6HE-C5 77 F i g . 10. d. P l o t o f the A c t u a l and P r e d i c t e d Time S e r i e s (-'inventory of.Unoccupied v c) 1968-1977 New Houses \u2014 ' ' PLOT OF ACTUAL!*) AND F I T T E D ! \u2022 ) VALUES PLOT OF RESIDUALS!0) I_D_ ACTUAL FITTE0 11*8. 750.1 7711 732.0 74 0.3 7710 783.7 868.9 7709 807.0 \u2022 1006. i 7708 917.7 825.3 P 7 7 0 7 856.0 672.* j 7706 776.3 621.3 I 7705 667.7 716.6 | 7704 679.3 512.9 77 0 3 670.7 551.9 7702 650.7 503.9 | 7701 527.7 336.1 7612 4*8.0 5*7.0 7611 4*2.3 200.6 7610 42*. 7 762.3 7609 566.3 621.0 _ .76.0.8 __57V.O . 410.7 7607 569.0 657.1 7606 522.0 629.1 7605 5*2.0 629.9 7604 679.7 661.1 7603 699.0 5*1.* -7.602. . 67_*.7 724.5 ' 7601 659.3 55*.3 ; 7512 574.0 *33.3 7511 522.C 524.0 1 7510 48*.0 444 .2 7509 5*0.3 604.3 7508 637.3 687.6 7507 680.7 580.1 7506 683.3 69 3.1 7505 711 .0 871.5 750* 798.3 1020. 7503 9*9.3 939.7 7502 1006. 561.* 7501 785.3 731.1 - 7*12 591 .3 662.9 ; 7411 377 .7 265.8 ' 7*10 315.7 526.8 7*09 269.3 370 .1 I 7408 266.7 227.9 ' Tit 0 7 256.0 353.5 . 7*06 222.7 249.7 7405 185 .7 215.8 ' 7*0* 214.0 199.3 7*03 170.3 170.3 7*02 120.0 153.3 7*01 73.33 1*5.5 7312 6 0 . 0 0 11*.0 , 7311 7 * . 0 0 2*.56 7310 85.33 68 .73 7309 89.33 42 .06 7308 94. 33 65.3* 730 7 107.0 43 .76 7306 113.3 6.770 j 7305 112.3 23.68 1 730* 102.0 85 .35 1 7303 103.0 116.* j 730.2_ 9.1.00 231.3 7 30,1 117.0 25 2.3 1 7212 \/ 1 2 2 . 3 171.0 i 7211\/ -y 135.0 122.0 , 7210 114.7 68.61 ,7209 114.7 97 .58 7208 128.0 103.1 720 7 155.0 70.82 7206 161.7 -6.*55 7205 161.7 70.01 720* 159.7 198.3 7203 160.3 268.* 1 720 2 16* .3 315.* 7201 169.7 208.4 t 7112 197.3 504 .9 7111 330 .3 37 3.1 7110 431.7 396.0 7109 *90.3 50 9.* 7108 469.0 613.2 7107 484.7 531.3 ; 7106 535. 3 487.5 7105 560.3 470.1 7104 5*2.7 427.4 7103 *91.7 627.1 7102 . 500.7 531.4 i 7101 519.0 36 3.9 7012 511.0 581.4 ! 7011 53*.C 8*6.2 7010 667.0 656.5 7009 763 .7 524.8 7008 698.7 696.2 7007 591.0 875.7 7006 655.0 813.1 7605 792.0 831.1 700* 661.3 732.7 7003 769. 7 701.8 7002 666.7 679.9 7001 562.3 545.8 6912 528.0 610.3 6911 530 .3 566.9 6910 538.0 586.9 6909 567.3 556.0 6908 568.0 671.4 6907 587 .0 6*9.8 6906 597.7 76*.0 6905 639.3 848 .5 690* 7 80 .3 890.3 6903 985.0 1262. 690 2 1023. 112*. 6901 1079. 80 9.5 6312 1032. 601.9 6811 822.3 517.7 6810 655.3 596.1 6309 591.0 408.4 , 6808 502.3 400.5 6807 4 37 .7 526.8 6806 416.7 296.0 6605 4 33.3 27 7.6 680* 428.0 313.9 6903 377.3 366.6 Inventory of Unoccupied v c New Houses \u2014 ^Estimate's Based on the .Asymmetric C r e d i t - V a r i a b l e ' RESIDUAL 398 . -8 .77 -85 .1 -199 . 92 . * 184 . 155. -48 . 9 166. 119. 147 . 192. -99 .0 242 . -337 . -54 .7 163. -89.1 -107 . -87 .9 18.6 158. -49 . 6 105. 141 . -1 .97 39. 8 -64.0 -50 .3 101 . 0.254 -160 . -222 . -40.4 444 . 54. 3 -71 . 6 112. -211 . -101 . 38.7 -97 .5 -27 .0 -30 . 1 14.7 .480E-01 -33 .3 . 2 .0 . 4 . 6 . 3 -72 . -54  49. 16. 47 29.0 63.2 107 . 88.7 16.7 -13.4 -140 . -135 . -48 .7 13.C 45 . 9 17.1 24.9 84.2 166. 91.7 -3e .6 -108 . -151 . -36 .8 -306 . -42 . 8 35. 7 -19 . 1 -144 . -46.6 47.9 9C . 2 115. -135 . -30 . 7 155. -70 . 4 -312. 10.5 23 9 . 2.47 -265 . -158. -99 . 1 129. 67. 5 -13 . 16. -82 . -36 . -48,. 11 . -103. -62 . e -166 . - 1 5 9 . -110 . -377 . . -101 . 269 . 42 0. 30 5. 59. 3 163 . 102. -69 . 1 121 . 156 . 114. 10. 8 78 2. A s y m m e t r i c C r e d i t V a r i a b l e VC - VC - t P O M P - 357.0299 + .477890 + 2.391271 AMCRED t s t a t i s t i c F s t a t i s t i c -4.049 4.501 20.256 2.257 5.095 t s t a t i s t i c F s t a t i s t i c - 36.6619 SPRING - 65.06893 FALL \u20221.696 2.875 -3.639 13.245 O v e r a l l F s t a t i s t i c = 8.760 S t a n d a r d e r r o r o f t h e e s t i m a t e = 135.644 Time s e q u e n c e p l o t o f r e s i d u a l s : F r e q u e n c y o f r e s i d u a l s : P l o t o f r e s i d u a l s a g a i n s t t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e : A l t h o u g h t h e r e a p p e a r e d t o be some t e n d e n c y f o r v a l u e s o f a s i m i l a r s i g n o r m a g n i t u d e t o f o l l o w s e q u e n t i a l l y , t h e r e was no l o n g - r u n c o n s i s t e n c y (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 1 . a ) . The f r e q u e n c y o f r e s i d u a l v a l u e s p r o v i d e d e v i d e n c e o f a n o r m a l d i s t r i b u t i o n (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 1 . b ) . T h e r e a p p e a r e d t o be no a p p a r e n t t e n d e n c y o f t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e t o r e s p o n d t o c h a n g e s i n t h e r e s i d u a l (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 1 . c ) . D u r b i n - W a t s o n s t a t i s t i c = 1.85514 C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t i n c o n s e c u t i v e r e s i d u a l s s q u a r e d = .0028 C o m p a r i s o n o f a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s o f VC (1968-1977) P l o t s o f t h e a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s : P r o p o r t i o n o f t u r n s i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e e s t i m a t e d c o r r e c t l y The p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a p p e a r e d t o t r a c e t h e a c t u a l v a l u e s adequate-l y (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 1 . d ) . = 50.4 p e r c e n t C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t = .8630 R s q u a r e d .7447 F i g . 11.a. Time Sequence P l o t F i g . 11.c. R e s i d u a l A g a i n s t o f R e s i d u a l s t h e E s t i m a t e P l o t .150JE-C .150JE-0 no* rto* -.1503E-01 \u2022 -!l50SE-Cl .^-L50i\u00a3z<)l__ -.150!E-\u00ab1 150IE-C 1 -.150SE-C --15O3E-0 \u20227\u00bb*.7 -.150JE-01 -.1JO1E-01 -.150SE-01 --HO3E-01 710* 71-37 -.150JE-01 7105 iO.i* -.150JE-01 rio* io*.i -.isoic-ci 7101 -155.1 -.150JE-01 7011 --1501E-C1 70OB -s\"*l --150SE-01 IDOJ -zaa.z -.|5nif-oi \u2022 700* 61.10 -15OJE-017005 -H.20 -.1SOJE-01 700* 153.0 -.1505E-01 700! l*-\u00bb5 -.150)6-01 7001 77-55 -\".IS01E-01 **I7 -01.40 *l50JE01 WVt -\u00bb*-&\u2022 -.I50JE-01 *90J -1*1.1 --150IE-01 *\u00bb0Z 1.755 -.150IE-C1 Mil lit.a -.150JE-QI _ _ . -Kill 1*7.1 -.I 503E-01 kB10 -I5.i!\\ -.150JE-C1 M01 171.7 \\ --150SE-01 t80S 59.20 -.15031-01 \u2022.DOT -111.* ' -.150JF-\u00ab1 -b i l l io'ij --150JE-01 b(US -I4.&S -.150JE-C1 ANALYSIS OF RESIDUALS INVENTORY OF UNOCCUPIED NEW HOUSES\u2014ESTIMATE 2 (Based on Transformed Variables) _7fcu7 | 7605 -103.7 F i g . 11.b. F r e q u e n c y o f R e s i d u a l s >ZU 0.515S .Z8**E-01 \u2022 705lt-ai '00 3 _'00l_ - 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 + Number of Standard Deviations From the Mean 80 F i g . 11.d.. P l o t o f t h e A c t u a l and P r e d i c t e d Time S e r i e s ( ' I n v e n t \u00b0 ^ \u00a3 o u s e s C C u p i e d v c ) 1968-1977 PLOT OF ACTUAL! * ) ANO F I T T E 0 < \u00bb ) VALUES PLOT OF RESIDUALS(O) ACTUAL FITTED RESIDUAL 81 R o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d - e r r o r as a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e . Mean a b s o l u t e e r r o r as a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean = ^91* 8 = '2176 v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e The C o c h r a n e - O r c u t t t e c h n i q u e was u s e d t o e l i m i n a t e a u t o -c o r r e l a t i o n i n t h e r e s i d u a l s w h i c h was e v i d e n t when o r d i n a r y l e a s t s q u a r e s was u s e d . S i n c e t h e use o f s i x month a v e r a g e s o f t h e s y m m e t r i c and a s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t v a r i a b l e s a p p e a r e d t o p r o v i d e t h e b e s t r e s u l t s i n t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s m o d e l , o n l y t h e s e r e s u l t s have been r e p o r t e d . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f f a v o u r a b l e Q government m o r t g a g e s and s u b s i d i e s v a r i a b l e (^) was d e l e t e d i n t h e i n v e n t o r y o f u n o c c u p i e d new h o u s e s (VC) m o d e l , s i n c e i t d i d n o t p r o v e s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t t h a n z e r o a t t h e .05 l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e . S i m i l a r l y , t h e b e s t r e s u l t s o c c u r r e d when (SPRING) and (FALL) were t h e o n l y s e a s o n v a r i a b l e s u s e d and, f o r t h i s r e a s o n , o n l y t h e s e e s t i m a t e s have been p r o v i d e d . I n g e n e r a l , e s t i m a t e s o f t h e i n v e n t o r y o f u n o c c u p i e d new h o u s e s (VC) m o d e l , u s i n g t h e s y m m e t r i c and a s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t Q v a r i a b l e s ( w i t h o u t t h e \u2014 v a r i a b l e ) , p r o v i d e d c o e f f i c i e n t s t h a t had t h e c o r r e c t s i g n , were s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t t h a n z e r o a t t h e .05 l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e , and i n d i c a t e d t h e s e l e c t e d d e t e r m i n -i n g v a r i a b l e s c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e e x p l a i n e d sum o f s q u a r e s (as i n -d i c a t e d by t h e \" t \" and \"F\" s t a t i s t i c s ) . The e s t i m a t e s a p p e a r e d t o a d e q u a t e l y t r a c e t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e and t h e R s q u a r e d v a l -u e s w o u l d a p p e a r t o be l a r g e and c o n f i r m t h e a d e q u a t e n e s s o f t h e model u s i n g e i t h e r t h e s y m m e t r i c o r a s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t v a r i a b l e . However, t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t u r n s i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e e s t i -141. 7 491.8 = .2882 82 mated c o r r e c t l y was somewhat p o o r . The r e v i e w o f t h e r e s i d u a l s i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e p r e c o n d i -t i o n s f o r r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s had n o t been v i o l a t e d . F u r t h e r -more, t h e D u r b i n - W a t s o n s t a t i s t i c was l a r g e and t h e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t i n c o n s e c u t i v e r e s i d u a l s s q u a r e d was n o t s i g n i f i c a n t -l y d i f f e r e n t t h a n z e r o a t t h e .05 l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e , i n d i c a t i n g t h a t t h e h y p o t h e s i s o f a u t o c o r r e l a t i o n i n t h e r e s i d u a l s may be r e j e c t e d . A c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e i n v e n t o r y o f un-o c c u p i e d new h o u s e s model u s i n g t h e s y m m e t r i c and a s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e s p r o v i d e d l i t t l e e v i d e n c e t o s u p p o r t t h e h y p o t h e s i s o f t h e s y m m e t r i c e f f e c t o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y i n f a v o u r o f s u p p o r t o f t h e h y p o t h e s i s o f t h e a s y m m e t r i c e f f e c t . However, t h e u s e o f t h e a s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t v a r i a b l e p r o v i d e d e s t i m a t e s o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e t h a t p r e d i c t e d a h i g h e r p r o -p o r t i o n o f t u r n s ( i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e ) c o r r e c t l y , and w i t h a h i g h e r R s q u a r e d as w e l l as a l o w e r r o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d - e r r o r and mean a b s o l u t e e r r o r . H o u s i n g S t a r t s M o d e l I n t r o d u c t i o n The number o f p r o f i t m o t i v a t e d g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s (PSTS) has been e s t i m a t e d as a f u n c t i o n o f t h e f o l l o w i n g d e t e r m i n i n g v a r i a b l e s : 1. The p o t e n t i a l r e t u r n s f r o m d e v e l o p i n g l a n d ( P F ) . 2. The r e l a t i v e d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s p e r u n i t i n d e x ( I U ) . 3. The i n v e n t o r y o f u n s o l d new g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d u n i t s ( V C ) . 4. The number o f g r o u n d o r i e n t e d u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n a t t h e end o f t h e p r e v i o u s p e r i o d (IUCF_ 1_) . 83 5. The number of ground o r i e n t e d housing completions (COMP). 6. The number of man-days l o s t i n c o n s t r u c t i o n labour s t r i k e s (STRIKE). 7. C r e d i t Conditions Symmetric C r e d i t V a r i a b l e (CRED) Option A . Market C r e d i t Conditons (SMCRED) . A v a i l a b i l i t y of favourable government mortgages and su b s i d i e s to the p r o f i t motivated s e c t o r (G\/M) Option B . P r i v a t e i n s t i t u t i o n a l lenders c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s (SPCRED) . Government d i r e c t lending c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s (SGCRED) Asymmetric C r e d i t V a r i a b l e (NCRED) . Market C r e d i t Conditions (AMCRED) . A v a i l a b i l i t y of favourable government mortgages and su b s i d i e s to the p r o f i t motivated s e c t o r (G\/M) 8. Season v a r i a b l e s (SPRING, SUMMER, FALL, WINTER) The model has been s p e c i f i e d as shown i n expression 6.4: PSTS = *>0 + b i ( f i r + b 2 ( v c ) + b.. (IUCF . - COMP) + b. (STRIKE) + B5 <N5iD> + B6 ( C M H C ) ( + b_ Q (SPRING, SUMMER, FALL) using the sum of monthly values over three months f o r the depend-end v a r i a b l e , the number of completions and season v a r i a b l e s , the value of the number of u n i t s under c o n s t r u c t i o n (IUCF) immediately preceding the three month p e r i o d , a s i x month average f o r the market c r e d i t v a r i a b l e and three month averages f o r the remaining determining v a r i a b l e s . Using the Cochrane-Orcutt technique f o r 84 l e a s t s q u a r e s and two s t a g e l e a s t s q u a r e s and m o n t h l y d a t a f r o m 1968 t o 1977, t h e c o e f f i c i e n t o f t h e most s u c c e s s f u l s p e c i f i c a -4 t i o n s o f t h e model were e s t i m a t e d as f o l l o w s : C o c h r a n e - O r c u t t L e a s t S q u a r e s 1. Symmetric C r e d i t V a r i a b l e : O p t i o n A PSTS = - 1750.032222 + 3222.926 (|^) - .4043182 VC t s t a t i s t i c -3.030 6.999\\ -2.053 F s t a t i s t i c - 48.982 4.214 - .4606215 ( I U C F _ t - COMP) - .00924752 STRIKE t s t a t i s t i c -6.908 -3.222 F s t a t i s t i c 47.725 10.388 - 11.26664 SMCRED + 1557.619 (\u00a7) M t s t a t i s t i c -4.325 4.498 F s t a t i s t i c 18.705 20.232 + 111.5276 SPRING + 196.9673 SUMMER + 130.2386 FALL t s t a t i s t i c 3.516 6.977 4.652 F s t a t i s t i c 12.361 48.680 21.644 O v e r a l l F s t a t i s t i c = 28.086 S t a n d a r d e r r o r o f t h e e s t i m a t e = Time s e q u e n c e p l o t o f r e s i d u a l s : F r e q u e n c y o f r e s i d u a l s : 151.778 A l t h o u g h t h e r e a p p e a r e d t o be some t e n d e n c y f o r v a l u e s o f a s i m i l a r s i g n o r m a g n i t u d e t o f o l l o w s e q u e n t i a l l y , t h e r e was no l o n g - r u n c o n s i s t e n c y (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 2 . a ) . The f r e q u e n c y o f r e s i d u a l v a l u e s p r o v i d e d e v i d e n c e o f a n o r m a l d i s t r i b u t i o n (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 2 . b ) . 85 P l o t o f r e s i d u a l s a g a i n s t t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e : T h e r e a p p e a r e d t o be no a p p a r e n t t e n d e n c y o f t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e t o r e s p o n d t o c h a n g e s i n t h e r e s i d u a l (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 2 . c ) . D u r b i n - W a t s o n s t a t i s t i c = 1.94468 C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t i n c o n s e c u t i v e r e s i d u a l s s q u a r e d = .0004 C o m p a r i s o n o f a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s o f PSTS (1968-1977) P l o t s o f t h e a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s : P r o p o r t i o n o f t u r n s i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e e s t i m a t e d c o r r e c t l y The p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s o f t h e de-p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a p p e a r e d t o t r a c e t h e a c t u a l v a i u e s a d e q u a t e -l y (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 2 . d ) . 85.5 p e r c e n t C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t = .8115 244.0 R o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d - e r r o r as a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e Mean a b s o l u t e e r r o r a s a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e 1177.8 194.1 1177.8 R s q u a r e d = .6585 . 2072 = .1648 C o m p a r i s o n o f a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s o f PSTS (1978-1979) P l o t s o f t h e a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s : P r o p o r t i o n o f t u r n s i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e e s t i m a t e d c o r r e c t l y The p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s o f t h e de-p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a p p e a r e d t o t r a c e t h e a c t u a l v a l u e s adequate-l y (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 2 . e ) . = 81.0 p e r c e n t C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t = .8441 R o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d - e r r o r as a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e Mean a b s o l u t e e r r o r as a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e = 3 7 0 . 2 1 0 7 3 293.0 1073 R s q u a r e d = .7125 3 4 5 0 = .2731 F i g . 12.a. o f Time Sequence P l o t R e s i d u a l s F i g . 12.c. R e s i d u a l A g a i n s t t h e E s t i m a t e P l o t ANALYSTS OF RESIDUALS PROFIT\"MOTIVATED HOUSING STARTS\u2014ESTIMATE 1 (Based on Transformed Variables) F i g . 12.b. F r e q u e n c y o f R e s i d u a l s _\/\u00bbci mi Mil 7210 mc rct\/i 7OOJ r-Si -T1S\u00ab.I_ iTHf.-.-&\/\u00bb*-( .5725t-< .S72JE-1 -S720E-C -5J20E-C - 3 2 1 0 1 2 ,3 + Number of Standard Deviations From the Mean Mil Hl-l \u2014lit J. if.ft tint ii\u00ab.E rut 121. i 720* nr. 7i0\u00a7 89.0 7202 _7107_ _70o*_ 70S* 7001 7002 -.S!20E-( .2742E-I 87 F i g . 12.d. P l o t . o f t h e A c t u a l and P r e d i c t e d Time S e r i e s ( .< ^ I N F L ^ \u2022 \" a >\u2022' 1968-1977 PLOT OF ACTUAL! * ) AND FITTED! \u2022 ) VALUES PLOT OF RESIOUALS(O) ACTUAL FITTED 88 F i g . 12.e. P l o t _ o f _ t h e A c t u a l and P r e d i c t e d Time S e r i e s ( P r o f i t Motivated \\ 1978-1979 v . Housing Starts & i a ' J-- ,'-\u00b0 J-z> i y PLOT OF A C T U A L ! * ) A KD F ITTEOCO VALUES PLOT OF RESIOUALS(O) 89 2. Symmetric C r e d i t V a r i a b l e : Option B PSTS t s t a t i s t i c F s t a t i s t i c P F - 1846.948 + 3204.943 (|^ ) -3.304 7.132 50.864 - .386508 VC -2.006 4.025 t s t a t i s t i c F s t a t i s t i c - .430940 (IUCF_ t - COMP) -6.562 43.064 - .009263 STRIKE -3.250 10.584 t s t a t i s t i c F s t a t i s t i c - 7.926464 SPCRED -3.760 14.138 62352.5 SGCRED 5.098 25.985 t s t a t i s t i c F s t a t i s t i c + 90.58587 SPRING + 195.8652 SUMMER + 120.6602 FALL 2.964 8.786 7.036 49.502 4.289 18.397 O v e r a l l F s t a t i s t i c = 28.789 Standard e r r o r of the estimate 150.315 Time sequence p l o t of r e s i d u a l s : Although there appeared to be some tendency f o r values of a s i m i l a r s i g n or magnitude to f o l l o w s e q u e n t i a l l y , there was no long-run consistency (as shown i n Figure 13.a). Frequency of r e s i d u a l s P l o t of r e s i d u a l against the estimate of the dependent v a r i a b l e : The frequency of r e s i d u a l values provided evidence of a normal d i s t r i b u t i o n (as shown i n Figure 13.b). There appeared to be no apparent tendency of the estimate of the dependent v a r i a b l e to respond to changes i n the r e s i d u a l (as shown i n Figure 13.c). Durbin-Watson s t a t i s t i c = 1.93301 C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t i n consecutive r e s i d u a l s squared = .0006 F i g . 13.a. Time Sequence P l o t of Residuals F i g . 13.c. Residual Against the Estimate P l o t .2520E-.2S20E-.2S23E-.2S23L-.2520E-.25m ANALYSTS OF RESIDUALS PROFIT MOTIVATED HOUSING STARTS\u2014ESTIMATE 2 (Based on Transformed Variables) rsof as-' F i g . 13,b. Frequency o f R e s i d u a l s -3 2 1 0 1 2 3 + Number of Standard Deviations From the Mean -.l**7E-0 -.892'E-O .1SME-S ll2Ut-C -.JSS9E-.' \u20221428E-! O 91 F i g . 13. d. P l o t of the A c t u a l and P r e d i c t e d Time Ser i e s ( j ^ L ^ t s * ESS . >\" 1968-1977 PLOT OF ACTUAL! * ) A NO F I T T E D ! * ) VALUES PLOT OF RESIDUALSIO) 10 ACTUAL FITTED 7712 1 5 1 6 . 1 1 5 9 . 7711 1 3 6 1 . 9 6 8 . 3 7710 1 * 9 1 . 1 1 7 9 . 7709 1 3 5 0 . 1 1 0 5 . 7708 1 7 6 1 . 1 3 6 2 . 770 7 1691 . 1 1 8 3 . 7706 169 3 . 1 3 8 0 . 7705 82d .\u00ab 91 1.8 7704 7 2 6 . 0 644 .0 7703 440 .C 27 4 .7 77 02 1 350 . e o i .4 7701 1 5 6 1 . 1 1 6 3 . 7612 1 8 1 1 . 1 3 8 5 . 7611 11-8 2 . 8 6 2 . 5 7610 1 * 4 7 . 1 1 5 9 . 7609 1652 . 1 3 2 0 . 7606 1 9 0 1 . 1 6 9 4 . 7607 1 1 9 * . 1 3 4 8 . 7606 1 2 0 0 . 1 1 * 0 . 7b05 1 0 7 6 . 1113 . 760* 1 3 0 * . 1 4 1 2 . 7603 9 5 * . 0 1 1 5 7 . 7602 7 7 0 . 0 1 0 2 8 . 7601 7 1 * . 0 9 9 2 . 9 7512 902 . 0 1 1 4 5 . 7511 1 2 2 9 . 1 5 4 0 . 7510 1 5 9 0 . 1 6 8 7 . 7509 1 74 9 . 1 9 6 5 . 7508 1 7 3 2 . 2 0 6 9 . 75 0 7 1 6 4 9 . 20 3 5 . 7506 1293 . 1 3 2 0 . 7505 858 . 0 1 1 5 7 . 7 5 0 * 388 .0 8 5 5 . 1 7503 3 8 0 . 0 5 4 0 . 4 7502 340 .0 4 7 4 .1 7501 308 . 0 4 9 9 . 5 7*12 4 0 3 . 0 6 9 0 . 1 7411 6 1 0 . 0 10 7 6 . 7410 1 3 0 0 . 1 3 2 8 . 7409 1*90 . 1 1 2 1 . 7 *08 1 505 . 1 1 7 7 . 7407 1 * 3 3 . 1 3 1 5 . 7406 1*61 . 1 * 4 4 . 7405 1 1 6 1 . 1 1 6 7 . 7404 7 6 6 . 0 9 9 3 . 5 7*03 5 6 9 . 0 6 b 4 . 2 7402 979 . 0 9 3 1 . 8 7 * 0 1 1 * 2 * . 1 0 8 * . 7312 2 C 8 1 . 1 4 0 0 . 7311 1 9 7 6 . 14 8 5 . 7310 1 8 * 7 . 1 5 7 7 . 7309 1 8 5 8 . 1 8 1 7 . 7308 1735 . 17 2 * . 7307 1511 . 1 4 1 3 . 7306 867 . 0 1 1 4 2 . 7305 9 4 1 . 0 1 0 2 4 . 7 3 0 * 8 1 2 . 0 9 0 6 . 5 7 303 1 0 4 0 . 8 6 1 . 3 7302 9 0 3 . 0 83 8 .1 7 3 0 1 1 1 7 9 . 9 9 7 . 3 7212 1 0 5 9 . 11 5 0 . 7 2 1 1 1 1 8 3 . 1 3 * 2 . 7210 1 3 7 3 . 1 4 7 6 . 7209 1*11 . 1 5 2 3 . 7208 1 3 * 5 . 14 1 3 . 7207 1 3 1 3 . 14 7 3 . 7206 1 30 3 . 1 3 1 8 . 7205 1 1 3 9 . 1 1 2 4 . 7 2 0 * 6 * 9 . 0 7 5 1 . 9 7203 6 7 5 . 0 8 4 7 . 6 72C2 1035 . 1 1 8 3 . 720 1 160 8 . 1 * 3 2 . 7112 1 7 1 1 . 1 4 * 5 . 7 1 1 1 1 7 5 7 . 1 * 8 0 . 7110 1 * 3 * . 1 3 9 7 . 7109 1 4 0 2 . 1 * 6 4 . 7108 1 365 . 1 * 9 7 . 7107 127 4 . 12 7 1 . 7106 1 2 6 8 . 1 0 6 7 . 7105 9 8 2 . 0 8 0 6 . 9 710\"* 8 0 3 . 0 5 8 * . 9 7103 5 5 2 . 0 436.4 7102 474 . 0 40 2 .9 7101 7 3 1 . 0 6 0 2 . * 7012 1057 . 1 0 * 2 . 7 0 1 1 1573 . 1 6 2 1 . 7C1C 1 8 0 5 . 1 8 0 9 . 7009 1756 . 1 6 6 9 . 70C8 1 4 5 9 . 1 3 7 9 . 7007 1 2 2 8 . 1 0 9 3 . 7006 959 . 0 7 * 2 . 2 7005 7 32.C 4 2 7 . 4 7 0 0 * 5 2 5 . 0 3 1 1 . 3 7003 5 1 4 . 0 2 5 8 . 3 7002 6 3 9 . 0 4C4.7 7001 8 2 1 . 0 5 8 9 . 3 6912 905 . 0 3 5 4 . 0 6911 1 0 6 5 . 1 0 4 1 . b910 1 1 9 2 . 1 2 7 1 . 6909 1 5 9 6 . 1 4 0 2 . 690 8 157 7 . 1 6 2 0 . 690 7 1*71 . 1 4 2 5 . 6906 1 2 0 * . 1 1 9 9 . 6905 1 0 * 1 . 984 .9 6 9 0 * 9 3 2 . 0 7 9 8 . 5 6903 676 . 0 695 .6 6902 385 .0 993 .7 6901 1 1 4 1 . 1 1 9 3 . 6812 1 2 6 1 . 1 3 6 0 . 6811 1392 . 1 5 1 3 . 6? 10 1 3 2 9 . 15 34 . bJ09 1267 . 14 2 5 . 6908 1 0 0 0 . 1 3 5 7 . 6907 1 1 9 * . 1 3 7 8 . 68 06 1 1 6 9 . 1 3 1 0 . 6305 1 1 7 3 . 1 2 8 2 . 6 8 0 * 787 . 0 11 3 4 . 6903 5 7 7 . C 989.4 92 o F i g . 13.e. P l o t o f t h e A c t u a l S e r i e s ( ' P r o f i t Motivated Housing Starts PSTS and P r e d i c t e d ) 1978-1979 PLOT OF ACTUAL!*) AND FITTE0(\u00bb) VALUES Time PLOT OF RESIDUALSCC) 10 ACTUAL FITTED 7912 1 2 8 5 . 964 .7 7911 946.0 994.4 7910 834 .0 90 9.5 7909 823.0 90 7.1 7908 349 .0 997.6 790 7 995.0 822.5 7906 979.0 745.2 79C5 868. C 556 .9 7904 567.0 504.7 790 3 305.0 374 .2 7902 615.0 649.1 790 1 1015. 948.0 7812 1706. 1212. 7611 1875. 1322. 7810 2072. 1400. 7609 1704. 1247. 7808 1572. 1336. 7807 m i . 1229. 7H06 941 .0 976.6 7805 696.0 612.2 7804 973.0 625.8 7803 823.0 237.6 Estimate Based on the Symmetric C r e d i t Variable: B\u00bb 93 C o m p a r i s o n o f a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s o f PSTS (1968-1977) P l o t s o f t h e a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s : P r o p o r t i o n o f t u r n s i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e e s t i m a t e d c o r r e c t l y The p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s o f t h e d e -p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a p p e a r e d t o t r a c e t h e a c t u a l v a l u e s a d e q u a t e -l y (as shown i n F i g u r e 13.d) . 8 6.3 p e r c e n t C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t = .8352 229.7 1177.8 R o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d - e r r o r as a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e R s q u a r e d = .6976 = .1950 Mean a b s o l u t e e r r o r as a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e 184.1 1177.8 = .1563 C o m p a r i s o n o f a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s o f PSTS (1978-1979) P l o t s o f t h e a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s : P r o p o r t i o n o f t u r n s i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e e s t i m a t e d c o r r e c t l y The p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s o f t h e de-p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a p p e a r e d t o t r a c e t h e a c t u a l v a l u e s a d e q u a t e -l y (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 3 . e ) . = 85.7 p e r c e n t C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t = .8345 307.3 R o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d - e r r o r as a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e Mean a b s o l u t e e r r o r as a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e 1073 234.7 1073 R s q u a r e d = .6963 = .2864 = .2187 3. A s y m m e t r i c C r e d i t V a r i a b l e PSTS = - 1636.8358 + 3267.298 (|^) - .391589 VC t s t a t i s t i c -2.799 7.075 -1.971 F s t a t i s t i c - 50.050 3.884 - .443850 ( I U C F _ t - COMP) - .009569 STRIKE 94 t s t a t i s t i c F s t a t i s t i c \u20226.663 44.403 -3.334 11.110 t s t a t i s t i c F s t a t i s t i c - 13.32315 AMCRED -4.279 18.311 + 1544.876 (g) 4.455 19.851 t s t a t i s t i c F s t a t i s t i c + 112.7474 SPRING + 197.716 SUMMER + 129.4303 FALL 3.554 12.633 6 . 999 48 .987 4.620 21.342 O v e r a l l F s t a t i s t i c = 28.061 S t a n d a r d e r r o r o f t h e e s t i m a t e = 151.859 Time s e q u e n c e p l o t o f r e s i d u a l s : A l t h o u g h t h e r e a p p e a r e d t o be some t e n d e n c y f o r v a l u e s o f a s i m i l a r s i g n o r m a g n i t u d e t o f o l l o w s e q u e n t i a l l y , t h e r e was no l o n g - r u n c o n s i s t e n c y (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 4 . a ) . The f r e q u e n c y o f r e s i d u a l v a l u e s p r o v i d e d e v i d e n c e o f a n o r m a l d i s t r i b u t i o n (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 4 . b ) . T h e r e a p p e a r e d t o be no a p p a r e n t t e n d e n c y o f t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e t o r e s p o n d t o c h a n g e s i n t h e r e s i d u a l (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 4 . c ) . F r e q u e n c y o f r e s i d u a l s P l o t o f r e s i d u a l a g a i n s t t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e : D u r b i n - W a t s o n s t a t i s t i c = 1.96802 C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t i n c o n s e c u t i v e r e s i d u a l s s q u a r e d = .0001 C o m p a r i s o n o f a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s o f PSTS (1968-1977) P l o t s o f t h e a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s : P r o p o r t i o n o f t u r n s i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e e s t i m a t e d c o r r e c t l y The p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s o f t h e de-p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a p p e a r e d t o t r a c e t h e a c t u a l v a l u e s a d e q u a t e -l y (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 4 . d ) . = 84.6 p e r c e n t C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t = .8021 R s q u a r e d = .6434 F i g . 14.a. Time Sequence P l o t o f R e s i d u a l s F i g . 14.c. R e s i d u a l A g a i n s t t h e E s t i m a t e P l o t ANALYSIS OF RESIDUALS I22B9E-0 PROFIT MOTIVATED HOUSING TTDl STARTS\u2014ESTIMATE 3 .22S9E-D1 .2249E-01 (Based on Transformed Variables) tali r*.\u00ab 7MS 171.S .J!\u00ab9E-0 .Z289E-0 .2JS9E-0 -2289E-0 .22S9E-0 .ZJ89E-0 .22a\u00bbE-C .i?89E-0 .2JS9E-01 -22m-0 ,226'E-O .22B9E-0 -i!a*E-o F i g . 14 F r e q u e n c y o f R e s i d u a l s -3 2 1 0 1 2 3 + Number of Standard Deviations From the Mean U i 96 F i g . 14.d. P l o t o f t h e A c t u a l S e r i e s ( P r o f i t M o t i v a t e d H o u s i n g S t a r t s PSTS and P r e d i c t e d ) 1968-1977 Time P L O T C F A C T U A L ! * ) A N D F I T T E D ! * ) V A L U E S P L O T C F R E S I O U A L S ( O ) F I T T E D 97 F i g . 14.e. P l o t o f t h e A c t u a l and P r e d i c t e d Time S e r i e s ( P r o f i t M o t i v a t e d ) 1978-1979 H o u s i n g S t a r t s .10 ACTUAL FITTED * RESIOUAL 791? 1285. 657.4 \u2022 \" 628 . . '. C 791 1 946 .0 436. 1 \" \u00bb f\u2014 110. . . 0 7910 8 84 .0 798. 0 * J, 86.0 . . 0 7909 823.0 e01.9 f 21.1 . .0 7908 849.0 915.5 -66.5 . 0. _7907 9 95.0 75 8T7 \u2022 2\"J\"6~ 0 t 7905 979 .0 692.9 \u2022 jf , cfii. . . 0. 7905 868.0 488.0 \u2022 P r o f r t M o t i v a t e d p s T \u00a3 . 3 8 ( )_ _ _ _ 0 7904 567.0 41 1 .6 H o u s i n g S t a r t s lt;5_ _ . 0 . 7903 305.0 272. 8 * 12.Z . .0 7902 615.0 554. 5 ^ 60.5 . .0 -7-901 rtrrT: 86Tm \u2022 n g ~ ; ; <j : 7812 1 708. 1 1 28. \u2022 ~ 560 . . . . 0 ,781 1 1 875. 1273 . . ^>>^^ 602. . . . 0 I 781 0 2072. 1361 . E s t i m a t e s Based on t h e \u2022 711. o 7809 1704. 1208. Asymmetric C r e d i t V a r i a b l e \u2022 \" 496. . . . 0 7803 1572. 1304. 268. . . 0 . -78tT7 1111. TZV5-. * : C i \u2022 7e06 941 .0 1023. ^^^i -82.3 . 0 . 7e05 696.0 6 13. 2 \u2022 <i^^\" 82.8 . . 0 7804 973.0 576 .9 f ^ ^ ^ \u00bb 396. .0 7803 323.0 13 7. 7 \u00ab < ^ 685. . . . 0 98 R o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d - e r r o r 0 as a p e r c e n t o f t h e = Yl77~8 = '2123 mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e Mean a b s o l u t e e r r o r as. ^ a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean = ^ l y y - 3 = \u00ab1670 v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e C o m p a r i s o n o f a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s o f PSTS (1978-1979) P l o t s o f t h e a c t u a l and The p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s o f t h e de-p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s : p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a p p e a r e d t o t r a c e t h e a c t u a l v a l u e s a d e q u a t e -l y (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 4 . e ) . P r o p o r t i o n o f t u r n s i n = 7 6 . 2 p e r c e n t t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e e s t i m a t e d c o r r e c t l y C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t = .8127 R s q u a r e d = .6605 Ro o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d e r r o r as a p e r c e n t o f t h e = 364.9 = .3401 mean v a l u e o f t h e 107 3 d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e Mean a b s o l u t e e r r o r as 233 8 a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean = -^Q^^ = .26 45 v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e 4. Summary The C o c h r a n e - O r c u t t t e c h n i q u e was u s e d t o e l i m i n a t e a u t o -c o r r e l a t i o n i n t h e r e s i d u a l s w h i c h was e v i d e n t when o r d i n a r y l e a s t s q u a r e s was u s e d . When t h e s y m m e t r i c ( O p t i o n A and B) and a s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t v a r i a b l e s were u s e d t h e b e s t r e s u l t s were p r o v i d e d u s i n g s i x month a v e r a g e s o f t h e c r e d i t v a r i a b l e t h a t p r i m a r i l y i n d i c a t e d t h e mortgage l e n d i n g o f p r i v a t e i n s t i t u t i o n s (SMCRED, SPCRED, AMCRED), and u s i n g t h r e e month a v e r a g e s o f t h e c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s a v a i l a b l e t h a t i n d i c a t e d t h e m o r t g a g e l e n d i n g G o f government (^, SGCRED). I n g e n e r a l , e s t i m a t e s o f t h e number o f p r o f i t m o t i v a t e d 99 g r o u n d o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s (PSTS) m o d e l , u s i n g t h e s y m m e t r i c o r a s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t v a r i a b l e s , p r o v i d e d c o e f f i c i e n t s t h a t had t h e c o r r e c t s i g n , were s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t t h a n z e r o a t t h e .05 l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e , and i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e s e l e c t e d d e t e r m i n i n g v a r i a b l e s c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e e x p l a i n e d sum o f s q u a r e s . F u r t h e r -more, t h e e s t i m a t e s a p p e a r e d t o a d e q u a t e l y t r a c e t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e ( a l t h o u g h e s t i m a t e s f o r 1977 and 1978 were c o n s i s t e n t l y p o o r ) and t h e R s q u a r e d v a l u e s w o u l d a p p e a r t o be l a r g e and c o n -f i r m t h e a d e q u a t e n e s s o f t h e model u s i n g e i t h e r t h e s y m m e t r i c o r a s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t v a r i a b l e . The r e v i e w o f t h e r e s i d u a l s i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e p r e c o n d i t -i o n s f o r r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s had n o t been v i o l a t e d . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e D u r b i n - W a t s o n s t a t i s t i c was c l o s e t o t h e v a l u e o f 2 and t h e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t i n c o n s e c u t i v e r e s i d u a l s s q u a r e d was n o t s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t z e r o a t t h e .05 l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e , i n d i c a t i n g t h a t t h e h y p o t h e s i s o f a u t o c o r r e l a t i o n i n t h e r e s i d u a l s may be r e j e c t e d . A c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s model u s i n g t h e s y m m e t r i c and a s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e s , p r o v i d e d some e v i d e n c e t o s u p p o r t t h e h y p o t h e s i s o f t h e s y m m e t r i c e f f e c t o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y i n f a v o u r o f s u p p o r t o f t h e hypo-t h e s i s o f t h e a s y m m e t r i c e f f e c t . When e x - p o s t e s t i m a t e s o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e were c o n s i d e r e d f o r t h e 1968-1977 p e r i o d , t h e use o f t h e s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t v a r i a b l e p r o v i d e d e s t i m a t e s o f t h e de-p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e t h a t p r e d i c t e d a h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n o f t u r n s ( i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e ) c o r r e c t l y , and w i t h a h i g h e r R s q u a r e d as w e l l a s a l o w e r r o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d - e r r o r and mean a b s o l u t e e r r o r as a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e . S i m i l a r l y , when e x - a n t e e s t i m a t e s o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e were c o n s i d e r e d 100 f o r 1978 and 1979, t h e u s e o f t h e s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t v a r i a b l e p r o -v i d e d e s t i m a t e s o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e t h a t p r e d i c t e d a h i g h e r p r o p o r t i o n o f t u r n s ( i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e ) c o r r e c t l y and w i t h a h i g h e r R s q u a r e d . However, o n l y O p t i o n B s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t c o n -d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e (SPCRED, SGCRED) p r o v i d e d p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e w i t h s m a l l e r e r r o r measurements. A c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e two s p e c i f i c a t i o n s o f t h e s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e i n d i c a t e d t h e s u p e r i o r i t y o f O p t i o n B w h i c h s e p a r a t e d t h e v a r i a b l e t h a t m easured t h e c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s p r o v i d e d by p r i v a t e i n s t i t u t i o n a l l e n d e r s (SPCRED) and t h e v a r i -a b l e t h a t m e a s u r e d t h e c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s p r o v i d e d by g o vernment (SGCRED). I n g e n e r a l t h e O p t i o n B s p e c i f i c a t i o n s p r o v i d e d e x - p o s t and e x - a n t e e s t i m a t e s o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e w i t h h i g h e r R s q u a r e d v a l u e s ( e x c e p t f o r t h e e x - a n t e e s t i m a t e ) , l o w e r e r r o r measurements, and a l a r g e r p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e t u r n s i n t h e d e p e n d -e n t v a r i a b l e p r e d i c t e d c o r r e c t l y . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e O p t i o n B s p e c i f i c a t i o n s a p p e a r e d t o p r o v i d e a more c o n s i s t e n t p e r f o r m a n c e i n b o t h e s t i m a t i o n p e r i o d s (1968-1977, 1978-1979). C o c h r a n e - O r c u t t Two-Stage L e a s t S q u a r e s The h o u s i n g s t a r t s model has b e e n e s t i m a t e d u s i n g t h e two-s t a g e l e a s t s q u a r e s a p p r o a c h where t h e exogenous and p r e d e t e r m i n e d v a r i a b l e s o f t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s model and t h e d e t e r m i n i n g v a r i a b l e s o f any i n c l u d e d endogenous v a r i a b l e s have been e n t e r e d as i n s t r u -5 PF ment v a r i a b l e s . The m o d i f i e d p o t e n t i a l p r o f i t v a r i a b l e (J^J) a n d t h e number o f u n o c c u p i e d new h o u s e s (VC) have b e e n c o n s i d e r e d endogenous v a r i a b l e s . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e v a r i a b l e e x p r e s s i n g t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e number o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d u n i t s u n d e r c o n -s t r u c t i o n a t t h e end o f t h e p r e v i o u s p e r i o d (IUCF_ 1.) and t h e 101 number o f c o m p l e t i o n s (COMP) was a l s o c o n s i d e r e d endogenous when t h e u n o c c u p i e d new h o u s e s v a r i a b l e (VC) was i n c l u d e d , b e c a u s e o f t h e i m p o r t a n c e o f t h e c o m p l e t i o n s v a r i a b l e . 1. Symmetric C r e d i t V a r i a b l e : O p t i o n A a) Endogenous V a r i a b l e ( M o d i f i e d P o t e n t i a l P r o f i t V a r i a b l e ) PSTS = - 1385.03 + 2450.2 - .184973 (IUCF - COMP) t s t a t i s t i c -2.47065 4.89281 -2.4098 - 12.0616 SMCRED + 1642.46 \u00a7 M t s t a t i s t i c -5.26176 3.92042 111.128 SPRING + 218.018 SUMMER + 136.358 FALL t s t a t i s t i c 2.7551 7.3756 4.32954 O v e r a l l F s t a t i s t i c = 21.318 S t a n d a r d e r r o r o f t h e e s t i m a t e = 168.668 Time s e q u e n c e p l o t o f r e s i d u a l s : A l t h o u g h t h e r e a p p e a r e d t o be some t e n d e n c y f o r v a l u e s o f a s i m i l a r s i g n o r m a g n i t u d e t o f o l l o w s e q u e n t i a l l y , t h e r e was no l o n g - r u n c o n s i s t e n c y (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 5 . a ) . F r e q u e n c y o f r e s i d u a l s : The f r e q u e n c y o f r e s i d u a l v a l u e s p r o v i d e d e v i d e n c e o f a n o r m a l d i s t r i b u t i o n (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 5 . b ) . P l o t o f r e s i d u a l s a g a i n s t t h e T h e r e a p p e a r e d t o be no a p p a r e n t e s t i m a t e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t t e n d e n c y o f t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e v a r i a b l e : d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e t o r e s p o n d t o c h a n g e s i n t h e r e s i d u a l (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 5 . c ) . D u r b i n - W a t s o n s t a t i s t i c = 1.8751 ( C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t i n c o n s e c u t i v e r e s i d u a l s s q u a r e d = .0098 F i g . 15.a. Time Sequence P l o t o f R e s i d u a l s F i g . 15.c. R e s i d u a l A g a i n s t t h e E s t i m a t e P l o t ANALYSIS OF RESIDUALS PROFIT MOTIVATED HOUSING STARTS\u2014ESTIMATE 4 (Based on Transformed Variables) F i g . 15.b. F r e q u e n c y o f R e s i d u a l s E \u2022 \u2022 i \u2022 \u2022 \u2022 . . . . \u2022 ! 30 j Number of Standard Deviations From the Mean 103 F i g . 15.d. P l o t o f t h e A c t u a l and P r e d i c t e d Time S e r i e s ( P r o f i t M o t i v a t e d P S T S ) 1968-1977 H o u s i n g S t a r t s PLOT OF ACTUAL!*) AND F IT TE 0< \u2022 ) VALUES PLOT OF RESIOUALS(O) ID AT THAI. FITTED R F S T ft IIAI 77 12 7711 7710 7709 7706 1516 1361 1491 1350 1 7b) 1 0 4 F i g . 1 5 . e . Plot of the .Actual and Predicted Time Series ( ' P r o f i t Motivated ) 1 9 7 8 - 1 9 7 9 Housing Starts PLOT OF ACTUAL!*) AND FITTEOf*) VALUES PLOT OF RESIOUALS(O) c 105 C o m p a r i s o n o f a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s o f PSTS (1968-1977) P l o t o f t h e a c t u a l and The p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s o f t h e de-p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s : p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a p p e a r e d t o t r a c e t h e a c t u a l v a l u e s a d e q u a t e -l y (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 5 . d ) . P r o p o r t i o n o f t u r n s i n = 8 2 . 2 p e r c e n t t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e e s t i m a t e d c o r r e c t l y C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t = .8593 R s q u a r e d = .7385 R o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d - e r r o r 209 0 as a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean= YTJ1~8 ~ m^^^ v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e Mean a b s o l u t e e r r o r as a 153 4 p e r c e n t o f t h e mean = ^177 g = '1387 v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e C o m p a r i s o n o f a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s o f PSTS (1978-1979) P l o t s o f t h e a c t u a l and The p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s o f t h e de-p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s : p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a p p e a r e d t o t r a c e t h e a c t u a l v a l u e s a d e q u a t e -l y (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 5 . e ) . P r o p o r t i o n o f t u r n s i n = 6 6 . 7 p e r c e n t t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e e s t i m a t e d c o r r e c t l y C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t = .7833 R s q u a r e d = .6136 R o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d - e r r o r , 3 ^ 5 as a p e r c e n t o f t h e = -^073 = -3089 mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e Mean a b s o l u t e e r r o r as 252 6 a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean = = -2354 v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e b) Endogenous V a r i a b l e s ( M o d i f i e d P o t e n t i a l P r o f i t V a r i a b l e , I n v e n t o r y o f U n o c c u p i e d New Houses) S i n c e t h e i n v e n t o r y o f u n o c c u p i e d new h o u s e s v a r i a b l e (VC) d i d n o t p r o v e s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t t h a n z e r o , a t t h e .05 l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e , t h e d e t a i l e d r e s u l t s have n o t been r e p o r t e d . 106 2. S y m m e t r i c a l C r e d i t V a r i a b l e : O p t i o n B a) Endogenous V a r i a b l e ( M o d i f i e d P o t e n t i a l P r o f i t V a r i a b l e ) PSTS = - 1238.08 + 2158.08 | ^ - .136822 ( I U C F _ t - COMP) t s t a t i s t i c -2.41619 4174623 -1.90578 - 7.634 SPCRED + 67861.6 SGCRED t s t a t i s t i c -4.83966 4.77527 87.9467 SPRING + 219.565 SUMMER + 129.296 FALL t s t a t i s t i c 2.38917 7.78308 4.23412 O v e r a l l F s t a t i s t i c = 21.280 S t a n d a r d e r r o r o f t h e e s t i m a t e = 168.762 Time s e q u e n c e p l o t o f r e s i d u a l s : A l t h o u g h t h e r e a p p e a r e d t o be some t e n d e n c y f o r v a l u e s o f a s i m i l a r s i g n o r m a g n i t u d e t o f o l l o w s e q u e n t i a l l y , t h e r e was no l o n g - r u n c o n s i s t e n c y (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 6 . a ) . F r e q u e n c y o f r e s i d u a l s : The f r e q u e n c y o f r e s i d u a l v a l u e s p r o v i d e d e v i d e n c e o f a n o r m a l d i s t r i b u t i o n (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 6 . b ) . P l o t o f r e s i d u a l s a g a i n s t t h e T h e r e a p p e a r e d t o be no a p p a r e n t e s t i m a t e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t t e n d e n c y o f t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e v a r i a b l e : d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e t o r e s p o n d t o c h a n g e s i n t h e r e s i d u a l (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 6 . c ) . D u r b i n - W a t s o n s t a t i s t i c = 1.8819 C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t i n c o n s e c u t i v e r e s i d u a l s s q u a r e d = .0030 C o m p a r i s o n o f a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s o f PSTS (1968-1977) P l o t s o f t h e a c t u a l and The p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s o f t h e de-p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s : p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a p p e a r e d t o t r a c e t h e a c t u a l v a l u e s a d e q u a t e -l y (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 6 . d ) . F i g . 16.a. Time Sequence P l o t o f R e s i d u a l s F i g . 16.c. R e s i d u a l A g a i n s t t h e E s t i m a t e P l o t ANALYSTS OF RESIDUALS PROFIT MOTIVATED HOUSING STARTS\u2014ESTIMATE 5 (Based on Transformed Variables) \"10 !DI. ( \u202270! \u00ab*.C nil -tri.'. F i g . 16.b. F r e q u e n c y o f R e s i d u a l s 0 1 2 3 + Number of Standard Deviations From the Mean '109 na7 o -J 108 F i g . 16.d. P l o t o f A c t u a l and P r e d i c t e d \"Time S e r i e s (_ P r o f i t Motivated P S T S ) 1 9 6 8 - 1 9 7 7 Housing Starts PLOT OF A C T U A L ! . ) AND F I T T E D ! \u2022 ) VALUES PLOT OF RESIOUALS(O) -LD- ACTUAL FIT TEO RESIDUAL 77 12 7 7 1 1 7710 7709 7708 109 F i g . 16.e. P l o t o f t h e A c t u a l and P r e d i c t e d Time ) 1978-1979 S e r i e s ( . P r o f i t Motivated p S T S Housing Starts PLOT Of ACTUAL! * ) AND F I T T E D ! O VALUES PLOT CF ftES [DUALS 10 ) 10 ACTUAL FI ITEO 79 12 1 2 8 5 . 72 5.9 791 1 9 4 6 . 0 87 6.4 79 1 0 884 .0 928 .0 7909 522 . 0 9 6 6 . 3 7908 849.C 1 0 5 3 . 7907 9 9 5 .0 39 6.9 7906 97 9 .0 7 3 9 . 3 7905 368 .0 598 .6 7904 5 6 7 . 0 52 6.4 7903 3 0 5 . C 5 5 6 . 1 7902 6 1 5 . 0 73 4 .0 790 1 1 0 1 5 . 9 6 2 . 9 7312 1703 . 1 1 96 . 7311 137 5 . 1 3 4 0 . 7 a i 0 207 2 . 1 4 5 5 . 7809 1 70 4 . 1 4 82 . 7309 1 5 \/ 2 . 1 5 4 6 . 7307 1 1 1 1 . 13 8 1 . 7806 9 4 1.0 1 1 35 . 7905 b 9 6 . 0 86 3.6 7\u00bb&4 973 . 0 3 5 5 . 3 7803 823 .0 726 .2 Estimate Based on the Symmetric Credit V a r i a b l e : B 110 P r o p o r t i o n o f t u r n s i n = 8 3 . 8 p e r c e n t t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e e s t i m a t e d c o r r e c t l y C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t = .8746 R s q u a r e d = .7649 R o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d - e r r o r rgs 1 as a p e r c e n t o f t h e = YT7T~8 ~ -1682 mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e Mean a b s o l u t e e r r o r as ^ a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean = Y2\/Tj~8 = *1353 v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e C o m p a r i s o n o f a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s o f PSTS (1978-1977) P l o t s o f t h e a c t u a l and The p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s o f t h e d e -p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s : p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a p p e a r e d t o t r a c e t h e a c t u a l v a l u e s a d e q u a t e -l y (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 6 . e ) . P r o p o r t i o n o f t u r n s i n = 6 6 . 7 p e r c e n t t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e e s t i m a t e d c o r r e c t l y C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t = .8086 R s q u a r e d = .6538 R o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d - e r r o r g as a p e r c e n t o f t h e = 1Q73 ~ -2608 mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e Mean a b s o l u t e e r r o r as 2^7 4 a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean = -^ Q-y^  ~ \u00ab2026 v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e b) Endogenous V a r i a b l e s ( M o d i f i e d P o t e n t i a l P r o f i t V a r i a b l e , I n v e n t o r y o f U n o c c u p i e d New Houses) PSTS = - 1321.52 + 2626.46 | ^ - .396318 VC t s t a t i s t i c -2.28363 5.12058 -1.69758 - .282427 ( I U C F _ t - COMP) t s t a t i s t i c -3.37041 - 7.24641 SPCRED + 66253.6 SGCRED I l l t s t a t i s t i c -3.65939 4.23095 t s t a t i s t i c 177.085 SUMMER + 80.9242 FALL 6.3916 2.5077 O v e r a l l F s t a t i s t i c = 17.732 S t a n d a r d e r r o r o f t h e e s t i m a t e 167.694 Time s e q u e n c e p l o t o f r e s i d u a l s : A l t h o u g h t h e r e a p p e a r e d t o be some t e n d e n c y f o r v a l u e s o f a s i m i l a r s i g n o r m a g n i t u d e t o f o l l o w s e q u e n t i a l l y , t h e r e was no l o n g - r u n c o n s i s t e n c y (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 7 . a ) . F r e q u e n c y o f r e s i d u a l s P l o t o f r e s i d u a l s a g a i n s t t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e : The f r e q u e n c y o f r e s i d u a l v a l u e s p r o v i d e d e v i d e n c e o f a n o r m a l d i s t r i b u t i o n (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 7 . b ) . T h e r e a p p e a r e d t o be no a p p a r e n t t e n d e n c y o f t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e t o r e s p o n d t o c h a n g e s i n t h e r e s i d u a l (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 7 . c ) . D u r b i n - W a t s o n s t a t i s t i c = 1.8071 C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t i n c o n s e c u t i v e r e s i d u a l s s q u a r e d = .0078 C o m p a r i s o n o f a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s o f PSTS (1968-1977) P l o t s o f t h e a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s : P r o p o r t i o n o f t u r n s i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e e s t i m a t e d c o r r e c t l y The p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s o f t h e de-p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a p p e a r e d t o t r a c e t h e a c t u a l v a l u e s a d e q u a t e -l y (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 7 . d ) . = 83.8 p e r c e n t C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t = .8510 R o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d - e r r o r ~, c c as a p e r c e n t o f t h e = -^\\77 8 mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e R s q u a r e d = .1830 7241 Mean a b s o l u t e e r r o r as a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e 172.2 1177.8 = .1462 i g . 17.a. Time Sequence P l o t o f R e s i d u a l s F i g . 17.c. R e s i d u a l A g a i n s t t h e E s t i m a t e P l o t Eli \u2022\u2022iiiii:: !H1 \":t!iu-i -'A;'.', :::!m-; 1 PPiE \"'iiilr! lis! 1 i :\u2022:!!:;:: ANALYSTS OF RESIDUALS PROFIT MOTIVATED HOUSING STARTS\u2014ESTIMATE 6 (Based on Transformed Variables) F i g . 17.b. F r e q u e n c y o f R e s i d u a l s - 3 2 1 0 1 2 3 + Number of Standard Deviations From the Mean IP;: : !!'\u2022; HP f f ' \u2022 :;i:li . : '. ill: m . '\u2022 \u2022 . 1 : \u2022 ' '\u2022 1 113 F i g . : 17.d. P l o t o f .the A c t u a l - a n d P r e d i c t e d Time Series ( P r o f i t Motivated ) 1968-1977 v . Housing S tar ts \u00a3\u00a3\u00b12... '- J - - ' \u00ab \u00ab - J - - \/ \/ \/ PLOT OF A C T U A L ! ' ) AND FTTTEOf\u2022 ) VALUES PLOT OF RESIDUALS(O) ID ACTUAL FITTED 77 12 1516. 1103. 7711 1361. 1018. 7710 1491. 12 05. 77 0 9 1350. 1181. 7708 1761 . 1386. 7707 169 1 . 1177. 7706 169 3. 12 39. 7705 828.0 867 .3 7704 726 .0 74 3.3 7703 440.0 519.3 7702 1 350. 9 02.9 7701 1581. 1185. 7612 1811. 1473. 761 1 1102. 13 19. 7610 1447 . 1545. 7609 1652. 1573. 7608 1901 . 1648. FtESIOUAL 7607 7606 7605 7604 7603 7602 6807 6806 6805 6804 6803 114 F i g . 17.e. P l o t . o f t h e A c t u a l and P r e d i c t e d Time S e r i e s ( , P r o f i t Motivated ) 1978-1979 Housing S ta r ts PLOT OF ACTUAL! * ) AND F I T T E D ! + ) VALUES PLOT OF RESIOUALS<0) ID ACTUAL RESIDUAL 7912 7911 7910 7909 7908 1 2 8 5 . 9 4 6 . 0 884 . 0 8 2 3 . 0 8 4 9 . 0 115 C o m p a r i s o n o f a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s o f PSTS (1978-1979) P l o t s o f t h e a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s : P r o p o r t i o n o f t u r n s i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e e s t i m a t e d c o r r e c t l y The p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s o f t h e de-p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a p p e a r e d t o t r a c e t h e a c t u a l v a l u e s a d e q u a t e -l y (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 7 . e ) . = 71.4 p e r c e n t C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t = .8127 344.1 R o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d - e r r o r as a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e Mean a b s o l u t e e r r o r as a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e 1073 270.2 1073 R s q u a r e d .3207 .6604 = .2518 3. A s y m m e t r i c C r e d i t V a r i a b l e a) Endogenous V a r i a b l e ( M o d i f i e d P o t e n t i a l P r o f i t V a r i a b l e ) PSTS = - 1415.7 + 2653.33 t s t a t i s t i c -2.53788 5.23245 PF IU 162555 (IUCF - COMP) -2.17651 t s t a t i s t i c - 14.7113 AMCRED + 1629.82 ^ M -5.43288 3.91513 + 112.028 SPRING + 217.296 SUMMER + 132.841 FALL t s t a t i s t i c 2.78374 7.36644 4.21773 O v e r a l l F s t a t i s t i c = 21.270 S t a n d a r d e r r o r o f t h e e s t i m a t e = 16 8.799 Time s e q u e n c e p l o t o f r e s i d u a l s : A l t h o u g h t h e r e a p p e a r e d t o be some t e n d e n c y f o r v a l u e s o f a s i m i l a r s i g n o r m a g n i t u d e t o f o l l o w s e q u e n t i a l l y , t h e r e was no l o n g - r u n c o n s i s t e n c y (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 8 . a ) . 116 F r e q u e n c y o f r e s i d u a l s P l o t o f r e s i d u a l s a g a i n s t t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e : The f r e q u e n c y o f r e s i d u a l v a l u e s p r o v i d e d e v i d e n c e o f a n o r m a l d i s t r i b u t i o n (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 8 . b ) . T h e r e a p p e a r e d t o be no a p p a r e n t t e n d e n c y o f t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e t o r e s p o n d t o c h a n g e s i n t h e r e s i d u a l (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 8 . c ) . D u r b i n - W a t s o n s t a t i s t i c = 1.8868 C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t i n c o n s e c u t i v e r e s i d u a l s s q u a r e d = .0131 C o m p a r i s o n o f a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s o f PSTS (1968-1977) P l o t s o f t h e a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s : P r o p o r t i o n o f t u r n s i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e e s t i m a t e d c o r r e c t l y The p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s o f t h e de-p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a p p e a r e d t o t r a c e t h e a c t u a l v a l u e s a d e q u a t e -l y (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 8 . d ) . = 8 3.8 p e r c e n t C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t = .8581 209 .9 R o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d - e r r o r as a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e Mean a b s o l u t e e r r o r as a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e 1177.8 164.7 1177.8 R s q u a r e d = .7364 .1782 = .1398 C o m p a r i s o n o f a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s o f PSTS (1978-1979) P l o t s o f t h e a c t u a l and p r e d i c t e d t i m e s e r i e s : P r o p o r t i o n o f t u r n s i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e e s t i m a t e d c o r r e c t l y The p r e d i c t e d v a l u e s o f t h e d e -p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a p p e a r e d t o t r a c e t h e a c t u a l v a l u e s a d e q u a t e -l y (as shown i n F i g u r e 1 8 . e ) . 6 6.7 p e r c e n t C o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t = .7376 344.6 R o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d - e r r o r as a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e 1073 R s q u a r e d = .5441 = .3212 F i g . 18.a. o f Time Sequence P l o t R e s i d u a l s F i g . 18.c. R e s i d u a l A g a i n s t t h e E s t i m a t e P l o t ANALYSIS OF RESIDUALS PROFIT MOTIVATED HOUSING STARTS\u2014ESTIMATE 7 (Based on Transformed Variables) r v i t \u00bb50\u00bb MO! rw F i g . 18.b. F r e q u e n c y o f R e s i d u a l s 7*05 157.\u00bb 7*07 *72.J 7202 7201 till 512.2 - 3 2 1 0 1 2 Number of Standard Deviations From the Mean F i g . 18.d. P l o t o f t h e A c t u a l and P r e d i c t e d Time S e r i e s ( p \u00a3 o E i t M o ^ v a t e d P S T S ) 1968-1977 118 Housing S t a r t s PLOT CF ACTUAL!* ) A N D F IT TE Ot \u2022 ) VALUES PLOT OF RESIOUALS(O) 10 ACTUAL FITTED 7712 771 1 7710 7 70 9 7708 1516. 1361. 1491. 1350. 1761. 6807 6806 6805 6804 6803 1194. 1169. 1173. 7 87.0 577.0 119 F i g . 18.e. P l o t o f t h e A c t u a l and P r e d i c t e d Time S e r i e s ( p r o f i t Motivated p s T S ) 1978-1979 Housing S ta r ts PLOT OF A C T U A L * * ) AND F I T T c O t O VALUES PLOT OF fiESIDUALS(O) ACTUAL F I T TED RES IOUAL 120 Mean a b s o l u t e e r r o r as 263 2 a p e r c e n t o f t h e mean = -^gyg ~ -2453 v a l u e o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e b) Endogenous V a r i a b l e s ( M o d i f i e d P o t e n t i a l P r o f i t V a r i a b l e , I n v e n t o r y o f U n o c c u p i e d New Houses) S i n c e t h e i n v e n t o r y o f u n o c c u p i e d new h o u s e s v a r i a b l e (VC) d i d n o t p r o v e s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t t h a n z e r o a t t h e .05 l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e , t h e d e t a i l e d r e s u l t s have n o t been r e p o r t e d . 4. Summary The C o c h r a n e - O r c u t t t e c h n i q u e was u s e d t o e l i m i n a t e a u t o -c o r r e l a t i o n i n t h e r e s i d u a l s w h i c h was e v i d e n t when o r d i n a r y two-s t a g e l e a s t s q u a r e s was u s e d . When t h e s y m m e t r i c ( O p t i o n s A and B) and t h e a s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t v a r i a b l e s were u s e d t h e b e s t r e s u l t s were p r o v i d e d u s i n g s i x month a v e r a g e s o f t h e c r e d i t v a r i a b l e t h a t p r i m a r i l y i n d i c a t e d t h e m o r t g a g e l e n d i n g o f p r i v a t e i n s t i t u t i o n s (SMCRED, SPCRED, AMCRED), and u s i n g t h r e e month a v e r a g e s o f t h e c r e d i t v a r i a b l e t h a t i n d i c a t e d t h e mortgage l e n d i n g o f government (^, SGCRED); F u r t h e r m o r e , a l t h o u g h t h e t w o - s t a g e l e a s t s q u a r e s e s t i m a t e s o f t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s model c o n s i s t e n t l y f a i l e d t o i d e n -t i f y t h e i n d e p e n d e n t e f f e c t o f t h e m a g n i t u d e o f s t r i k e s i n t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n i n d u s t r y ( S T R I K E ) , t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e i n d e p e n d e n t e f f e c t o f t h e number o f u n o c c u p i e d new h o u s e s (VC) d epended upon t h e s e l e c t e d c r e d i t v a r i a b l e and t h e d e l e t i o n o f t h e s e a s o n v a r -i a b l e (SPRING). T h e r e f o r e , t h e (STRIKE) v a r i a b l e was d e l e t e d , and t h e d e t a i l e d r e s u l t s o f u s i n g t h e (VC) v a r i a b l e were o n l y r e -p o r t e d when t h e c o e f f i c i e n t was s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t t h a n z e r o . When t h e number o f u n o c c u p i e d new h o u s e s (VC) was n o t i n -c l u d e d as an e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e , e s t i m a t e s o f t h e number o f 121 p r o f i t m o t i v a t e d g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s (PSTS) m o d e l , u s i n g t h e s y m m e t r i c o r a s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t v a r i a b l e s , p r o v i d e d c o -e f f i c i e n t s t h a t had t h e c o r r e c t s i g n , were s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r -e n t t h a n z e r o a t t h e .05 l e v e l o f s i g n i f i c a n c e , and i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e s e l e c t e d d e t e r m i n i n g v a r i a b l e s c o n t r i b u t e d t o t h e ex-p l a i n e d sum o f s q u a r e s ( b a s e d on t h e \" t \" and \"F\" s t a t i s t i c s ) . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e e s t i m a t e s a p p e a r e d t o a d e q u a t e l y t r a c e t h e d e -p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e and t h e R s q u a r e d v a l u e s , i n g e n e r a l , w o u l d a p p e a r t o be l a r g e and c o n f i r m t h e a d e q u a t e n e s s o f t h e model u s -i n g e i t h e r t h e s y m m e t r i c o r a s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t v a r i a b l e . The r e v i e w o f t h e r e s i d u a l s i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e p r e c o n d i -t i o n s f o r r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s had n o t l i k e l y b e e n v i o l a t e d . The D u r b i n - W a t s o n s t a t i s t i c was l a r g e and t h e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t i n c o n s e c u t i v e r e s i d u a l s s q u a r e d was n o t s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t t h a n z e r o a t t h e .05 l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e , i n d i c a t i n g t h a t t h e h y p o t h e s i s o f a u t o c o r r e l a t i o n i n t h e r e s i d u a l s may be r e j e c t e d . A c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s mod-e l u s i n g t h e s y m m e t r i c and a s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t v a r i a b l e s p r o v i d e d some e v i d e n c e t o s u p p o r t t h e h y p o t h e s i s o f t h e s y m m e t r i c e f f e c t o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y i n f a v o u r o f s u p p o r t t o t h e h y p o t h e s i s o f t h e a s y m m e t r i c e f f e c t . E x - p o s t (1968-1977) and e x - a n t e (1978-1979) e s t i m a t e s o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e u s i n g t h e s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t v a r i a b l e p r o v i d e d e s t i m a t e s w i t h a h i g h e r R s q u a r e d , as w e l l as a l o w e r r o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d - e r r o r and mean a b s o l u t e e r r o r . However, o n l y t h e O p t i o n B s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e c o n s i s t e n t l y m a t ched t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t u r n s i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e p r e d i c t e d c o r r e c t l y by t h e a s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t v a r i a b l e . When t h e number o f u n o c c u p i e d new h o u s e s (VC) was i n c l u d e d as an e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e (but t h e s e a s o n v a r i a b l e SPRING was 122 d e l e t e d ) , ex-post estimates of the dependent v a r i a b l e i d e n t i f i e d the independent e f f e c t of the number of unoccupied new houses only when the Option B symmetric c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e was used. Although estimates of the dependent v a r i a b l e were b e t t e r using other s p e c i f i c a t i o n s of the housing s t a r t s model, the estimate provided c o e f f i c i e n t s t h a t had the c o r r e c t s i g n , were s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t than zero at the .05 l e v e l of s i g n i f i -cance, and i n d i c a t e d t h a t the s e l e c t e d determining v a r i a b l e s con-t r i b u t e d to the explained sum of squares (based on the \" t \" and \"F\" s t a t i s t i c s ) . Furthermore, the estimates appeared t o adequate-l y t r a c e the dependent v a r i a b l e and the R squared v a l u e s , i n gen-e r a l , would appear t o be l a r g e and confirm the adequateness of the model using e i t h e r the symmetric or asymmetric c r e d i t v a r i a b l e . The review of the r e s i d u a l s i n d i c a t e d t h a t the precondi-t i o n s f o r r e g r e s s i o n a n a l y s i s had not l i k e l y been v i o l a t e d . A l s o , the Durbin-Watson s t a t i s t i c was l a r g e and the c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i -c i e n t i n consecutive r e s i d u a l s squared was not s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f -f e r e n t than zero at the .05 l e v e l of confidence, i n d i c a t i n g t h a t the hypothesis of a u t o c o r r e l a t i o n i n the r e s i d u a l s may be r e j e c t e d . Using the Cochrane-Orcutt technique the two-stage l e a s t squares approach provided smaller e r r o r measurements (root-mean-squared-error, mean absolute e r r o r ) and the R squared values i n the ex-post estimates of the dependent v a r i a b l e were l a r g e r . How-ever, the two-stage l e a s t squares approach was unable to i d e n t i f y the independent e f f e c t of a l l the p o t e n t i a l explanatory v a r i a b l e s , the R squared values i n the ex-ante estimates were smaller and a fewer number of turns i n the dependent v a r i a b l e were estimated c o r r e c t l y . In general, i t would appear that the estimates of the v a r i o u s s p e c i f i c a t i o n s of the housing s t a r t s model traced 123 t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e a d e q u a t e l y , and t h e s u p e r i o r p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e e s t i m a t e s when u s i n g t h e s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t v a r i a b l e a p p e a r -ed t o p r o v i d e e v i d e n c e i n s u p p o r t o f t h e h y p o t h e s i s o f t h e s y m m e t r i c e f f e c t o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y . C o n c l u s i o n The t e s t i n g o f t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s model a p p e a r e d t o c o n -f i r m t h e h y p o t h e s i s t h a t g i v e n a l e v e l o f p r o f i t a b l e n e s s o f d e v e l o p i n g l a n d and t h e i n v e s t m e n t r e q u i r e d p e r u n i t , d e v e l o p e r s w o u l d d e s i r e t o m a i n t a i n a c e r t a i n number o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c -t i o n . A l t h o u g h t h e c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e s u s e d a p p e a r e d t o s u c c e s s f u l l y i n d i c a t e t h e e f f e c t o f t h e p r i c e and a v a i l a b i l i t y o f c r e d i t , t h e use o f t h e s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e d i d n o t p r o v i d e r e s u l t s t h a t were c o n v i n c i n g l y s u p e r i o r t o t h e u s e o f t h e a s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t v a r i a b l e . However, t h e r e s u l t s o f t h e t e s t -i n g a p p e a r e d t o f a v o u r t h e u s e o f t h e s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e and t h u s s u p p o r t t h e h y p o t h e s i s o f t h e s y m m e t r i c e f f e c t o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y on t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f h o u s i n g s t a r t s . The p o s s i b l e b e t t e r p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t v a r i a b l e may stem f r o m i t s s u c c e s s o f i n d i c a t i n g t h e p o t e n t i a l f o r house p r i c e s t o r i s e f a s t e r t h a n d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s . However, t h e a p p a r e n t com-p a r a b l e p e r f o r m a n c e o f t h e a s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t v a r i a b l e may stem f r o m i t s s u c c e s s o f i n d i c a t i n g t h e p o t e n t i a l f o r r e d u c t i o n s i n t h e o c c u p a t i o n o f n e w l y c o m p l e t e d h o u s e s ; and, f r o m t h e n a t u r e o f f l u c t u a t i o n s i n t h e c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y i n d i c a t o r w h i c h was s u b -j e c t t o r a d i c a l movements i n t h e d i r e c t i o n o f c r e d i t t i g h t n e s s compared t o modest movements i n t h e d i r e c t i o n o f e a s i e r c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s . I t was t h o u g h t t h a t t h e s t u d y was s u c c e s s f u l i n showing 124 t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e number o f h o u s i n g s t a r t s , i n a l i m i t e d m a r k e t a r e a , and t h e m a j o r d e t e r m i n i n g v a r i a b l e s a t t r i -b u t e d t o t h e l o c a l and n a t i o n a l e c o n o m i c e n v i r o n m e n t . The e s t i -mates a p p e a r e d t o a d e q u a t e l y t r a c e t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e ; a l -t h o u g h , t h e e s t i m a t e s f o r 1968, 1976, 1977, and 1978 a p p e a r e d t o be c o n s i s t e n t l y low w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e a c t u a l v a l u e o f t h e de-p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e . The marked weakness o f t h e model i n t h e s e y e a r s a p p e a r e d t o c o i n c i d e w i t h a s m a l l e r p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e t o t a l number o f h o u s i n g s t a r t s c o n s i s t i n g o f a p a r t m e n t u n i t s (see TABLE V . l . W i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e l a t t e r p a r t o f t h e s t u d y p e r i o d , t h e d e c l i n e i n t h e p r o d u c t i o n o f new a p a r t m e n t ( r e n t a l ) u n i t s p r o b -a b l y stemmed f r o m p r o v i n c i a l l e g i s l a t i o n t h a t r e g u l a t e d r e n t l e v e l s . T h e r e f o r e , i t w o u l d a p p e a r t h a t w e a k n e s s e s i n t h e r e n t -a l , o r a p a r t m e n t u n i t , m a r k e t may c o n t r i b u t e t o i n c r e a s e d compe-t i t i o n o f s u p p l i e r s i n t h e g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g m a r k e t . A t t e m p t s t o i n c l u d e an e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e i n t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s m o d e l , t h a t i n d i c a t e d t h e r e l a t i v e a d v a n t a g e o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d 7 h o u s i n g r e l a t i v e t o a p a r t m e n t d e v e l o p m e n t , p r o v e d u n s u c c e s s f u l . I n v i e w o f t h e a t t e m p t t o model a l o c a l h o u s i n g m a r k e t w i t h i n a s p e c i f i e d g e o g r a p h i c a r e a , t h e e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e s c o n -s i d e r e d , t h e i n d i c a t o r s u s e d f o r t h e p e r i o d i c m a g n i t u d e o f t h e s e v a r i a b l e s , and t h e a p p a r e n t w e a k n e s s e s i n t h e m o d e l , i t w o u l d a p p e a r t h a t f u t u r e e s t i m a t i n g a t t e m p t s may i n c l u d e t h e f o l l o w i n g : 1. A v a r i a b l e t h a t w o u l d measure t h e p e r i o d i c a d v a n t a g e o f d e v e l o p i n g a p a r t m e n t ( r e n t a l ) u n i t s r e l a t i v e t o g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g ( p r i m a r i l y owner o c c u p i e d ) u n i t s . 2. A r e v i s e d e s t i m a t e o f t h e number o f u n o c c u p i e d new 125 g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d d w e l l i n g u n i t s b a s e d on an i m p r o v e d e s t i m a t e o f t h e number o f u n o c c u p i e d new row h o u s e s . S p e c i f i c a l l y , t h e number o f row d w e l l i n g v a c a n c i e s m i g h t be i d e n t i f i e d f r o m a v a i l a b l e s u r v e y s o f t h e num-b e r o f ne w l y c o m p l e t e d and u n o c c u p i e d a p a r t m e n t and row d w e l l i n g u n i t s . W i t h an i m p r o v e d e s t i m a t e o f t h e num-b e r o f u n o c c u p i e d new h o u s e s , t h i s v a r i a b l e o u g h t t o p r o v i d e b e t t e r r e s u l t s as w e l l as p e r m i t a g r e a t e r d e-g r e e o f c o n f i d e n c e i n t h e v a l i d i t y o f t h e measure. 3. A l t h o u g h t h e u s e o f dummy v a r i a b l e s f o r d i f f e r e n t s e a s o n s a p p e a r e d t o be s u c c e s s f u l , t h e t e c h n i q u e has t h e d i s a d v a n t a g e o f n o t i d e n t i f y i n g s e v e r e w e a t h e r c o n -d i t i o n s , a t t r i b u t e d t o u n u s u a l s n o w f a l l s , d u r i n g t h e \"WINTER\" s e a s o n . I f a c o n t i n u o u s i n d e x was d e v e l o p e d , t h e r e w o u l d be t h e a d v a n t a g e o f f e w e r e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i -a b l e s and t h e p o t e n t i a l t o i n d i c a t e t h e s e v e r i t y o f w e a t h e r c o n d i t i o n s . 4 . A r e v i s e d e s t i m a t e o f t h e c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e s b a s e d on an e s t i m a t e o f t h e mortgage a p p r o v a l s by p r i -v a t e ( n o n - i n s t i t u t i o n a l ) l e n d e r s , i n a d d i t i o n t o t h e a p p r o v a l s by i n s t i t u t i o n a l l e n d e r s . A n n u a l e s t i m a t e s o f m o r t g a g e a p p r o v a l s by n o n - i n s t i t u t i o n a l l e n d e r s a r e p r o v i d e d by t h e Canada M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n ; however, i t w o u l d be n e c e s s a r y t o f i n d a means t o a l l o -c a t e t h e a n n u a l v a l u e t o e a c h month. 126 F o o t n o t e s Two p a c k a g e computer programs (TSP and SPSS) have been u s e d t o e s t i m a t e t h e v a r i o u s m o d e l s b e c a u s e o f t h e r e l a t i v e e a s e o f g e n e r a t i n g s p e c i f i c s t a t i s t i c s o r p l o t s o f f e r e d by e a c h p r o g r a m . TSP o r Time S e r i e s P r o c e s s o r h as been u s e d f o r t h e f o l l o w i n g : a) e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e v a l u e o f \" r h o \" when u s i n g t h e C o c h r a n e -O r c u t t t e c h n i q u e b) e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e 1 11\" s t a t i s t i c f o r t h e c o n s t a n t c) e s t i m a t i o n o f t h e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i c i e n t between c o n s e c u t i v e r e s i d u a l s d) c o m p a r i s o n o f t h e a c t u a l and f i t t e d v a l u e s o f t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e ( i n c l u d i n g t h e c o r r e l a t i o n c o e f f i -c i e n t , R s q u a r e d , r o o t - m e a n - s q u a r e d - e r r o r , and t h e mean a b s o l u t e e r r o r ) . e) a l l t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s and s t a t i s t i c s u s i n g t h e t w o - s t a g e C o c h r a n e - O r c u t t t e c h n i q u e . f ) a l l t h e p l o t s SPSS o r S t a t i s t i c a l P a c k a g e f o r t h e S o c i a l S c i e n c e s h a s b e e n u s e d t o e s t i m a t e a l l t h e c o e f f i c i e n t s and s t a t i s t i c s ( e x c e p t t h e \" t \" s t a t i s t i c f o r t h e c o n s t a n t ) when u s i n g t h e o r d i n a r y C o c h r a n e -O r c u t t t e c h n i q u e . 2 I b i d . I b i d . I b i d . I b i d , The endogenous v a r i a b l e s (PF, VC) have been r e p l a c e d by t h e f o l l o w i n g i n s t r u m e n t v a r i a b l e s : PF: VC: (HP) A C _ t ' (VC) ( - t DIACHCW, TR IU N C R E D  T R ' I U ' CRED' COMP, N \u00a3 ^ \u00a3 , SPRING, FALL, F u r t h e r m o r e , b e c a u s e o f t h e m u t u a l d e t e r m i n i n g a f f e c t o f t h e v a r i a b l e \"COMP\" t h e \" ( I U C F _ t - COMP)\" v a r i a b l e was r e p l a c e d by i t s components. (IUCF . - COMP): (IUCF , COMP) 127 N o t a t i o n : PF P o t e n t i a l P r o f i t V a r i a b l e DIACIICW = A DIOH I f n e g a t i v e x CHCW - 1 AC I f p o s i t i v e x CHCW IU I n vestment R e q u i r e d Per U n i t CRED = C r e d i t C o n d i t i o n s Based on the Assumption HP S e l l i n g P r i c e o f New Houses (NCRED) o f t h e Symmetric (Asymmetric) E f f e c t o f C r e d i t A v a i l a b i l i t y AC P r e - t a x C o s t s D u r i n g Development and M a r k e t i n g VC I n v e n t o r y o f Unoccu p i e d New Houses TR C o r p o r a t e Income Tax Rate IUCF P r o f i t M o t i v a t e d G r o u n d - O r i e n t e d Housing U n i t s Under C o n s t r u c t i o n LABOH = Labour F o r c e COMP P r o f i t M o t i v a t e d G r o u n d - O r i e n t e d STKOH = St o c k o f Ground O r i e n t e d Houses Housing U n i t C o m p l e t i o n s DIOH Average D i s p o s a b l e Income SPRING March, A p r i l CHCW Change i n the P o p u l a t i o n , t h a t Form Households\/ R e l a t i v e t o SUMMER -\u2022 = May, June, J u l y , August the S t o c k o f Houses FALL = September, O c t o b e r , November LABOH , LABOH. STKOH ' STKOH 'To i n d i c a t e t h e r e l a t i v e a d v a n t a g e o f a p a r t m e n t d e v e l o p m e n t ( p r i m a r i l y f o r r e n t i n g ) r e l a t i v e t o g r o u n d o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g d e v e l o p m e n t ( p r i m a r i l y f o r home-ownership) t h e r a t i o o f l o c a l r e n t a l r a t e s t o new house p r i c e s was u s e d . However, t h i s v a r i a b l e d i d n o t p r o v e s i g n i f i c a n t l y d i f f e r e n t t h a n z e r o a t t h e .05 l e v e l o f c o n f i d e n c e and i n g e n e r a l d i d n o t a p p e a r t o h e l p t h e c a p a b i l i t -i e s o f t h e model t o t r a c e movements i n t h e d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e ( g r o u n d o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s ) . I n v i e w o f t h i s , i t w o u l d a p p e a r t h a t t h e r e l a t i v e a t t r a c t i v e n e s s o f a p a r t m e n t d e v e l o p m e n t may n o t be i n d i c a t e d by t h i s s i m p l e r a t i o o f p r i c e s c h a r a c t e r i s t i c o f t h e two m a r k e t s . A l t h o u g h i t i s r e a s o n a b l e t o assume t h a t when P r o v i n c i a l l e g i s l a t i o n p e r t a i n i n g t o r e n t l e v e l s come i n t o e f f e c t i n l a t e 1975 w o u l d have an im m e d i a t e a f f e c t on t h e e x p e c t a t i o n s o f t h e p r o f i t a b l e n e s s o f a p a r t m e n t d e v e l o p m e n t , t h e a c t u a l i m p a c t on t h e r a t i o o f r e n t s t o house p r i c e s may t a k e y e a r s b e f o r e s u b -s t a n t i a l c h a n g e s have been n o t e d . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e a p p a r e n t a t t r a c t i v e n e s s o f a p a r t m e n t d e v e l o p m e n t i n t h e mid-1970s, however, p r o b a b l y stemmed f r o m t h e s i z e o f t h e p o t e n t i a l m a r k e t o f young a d u l t s r e q u i r i n g s e p a r a t e , low commitment, b u t a f f o r d a b l e h o u s i n g . I t w o u l d a p p e a r , t h e r e f o r e , t h a t an a t t e m p t t o d e s i g n a s i m p l e v a r i a b l e t h a t w o u l d r e f l e c t t h e r e l a t i v e a d v a n t a g e o f a p a r t m e n t d e v e l o p m e n t , t h a t w o u l d be i n d e p e n d e n t o f t h e o t h e r e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e s i n t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s model may be d i f f i c u l t . 128 BIBLIOGRAPHY T h e o r y S o u r c e s Bank o f Canada. The E q u a t i o n s o f RDX2 R e v i s e d and E s t i m a t e d  t o 4Q72. T e c h n i c a l R e p o r t 5. O t t a w a : Bank o f Canada, 1976. B e c k e r , A r t h u r P. L a n d and B u i l d i n g T a x e s : T h e i r E f f e c t on Econom- i c D e v e l o p m e n t . M a d i s o n : The U n i v e r s i t y o f W i s c o n s i n P r e s s , 1969. Bouey, G e r a l d K. A c c o u n t i n g f o r M o n e t a r y P o l i c y . Remarks b e f o r e a m e e t i n g o f t h e C e r t i f i e d G e n e r a l A c c o u n t a n t s A s s o c i a t i o n o f O n t a r i o i n T o r o n t o on J a n u a r y 30, 1969. O t t a w a : Bank o f Canada, 1969. Bouey, G e r a l d K. \" R e c e n t M o n e t a r y D e v e l o p m e n t , \" Bank o f Canada  Review. Otta w a : Bank o f Canada, O c t o b e r 1973. pp. 15-2 3. B r i g h a m , Eugene F. F i n a n c i a l Management: T h e o r y and P r a c t i c e . H i n s d a l e , I l l i n o i s : The D r y d e n P r e s s , 1977. Chung, J o s e p h H. C y c l i c a l I n s t a b i l i t y i n R e s i d e n t i a l C o n s t r u c t i o n  i n C a n ada. O t t a w a : E c o n o m i c C o u n c i l o f Canada, 1976. F a c u l t y o f Commerce and B u s i n e s s A d m i n i s t r a t i o n , R e a l E s t a t e  and A p p r a i s a l D i p l o m a C o u r s e : E c o n o m i c s o f R e a l  P r o p e r t y . V a n c o u v e r : U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , 1975. F a i r , Ray C , and J a f f e e D w i g h t M. \"Methods o f E s t i m a t i o n f o r M a r k e t s i n D i s e q u i l i b r i u m \" , E c o n o m e t r i c a , V o l . 40, No. 3 (May, 1 9 7 2 ) , pp. 497-514. F a i r , Ray C. \" D i s e q u i l i b r i u m i n H o u s i n g M o d e l s \" , The J o u r n a l  o f F i n a n c e , V o l . 27 (May, 1 9 7 2 ) , pp. 207-221. F i s h e r , R o b e r t M., and Siegman, C h a r l e s J . \" H o u s i n g and F i n a n c i a l R e s t r a i n t : O b s e r v a t i o n s on F o r e i g n E x p e r i e n c e \" , Ways t o M o d e r a t e F l u c t u a t i o n s i n H o u s i n g C o n s t r u c t i o n . F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S t a f f S t u d y . W a s h i n g t o n , D. C. P u b l i c a t i o n S e r v i c e s , B o a r d o f G o v e r n o r s o f t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e System, M a r c h 1972. G r e b l e r , L e o , B l a n k , D a v i d , and W i n n i c k , L e w i s . C a p i t a l F o r m a t i o n i n R e s i d e n t i a l R e a l E s t a t e : T r e n d s and P r o s p e c t s . New Y o r k : N a t i o n a l B u r e a u of\" E c o n o m i c R e s e a r c h , 1956. 129 H a r r i s , Duane G. \" I n t e r e s t R a t e s , N o n - P r i c e Terms and t h e A l l o c a -t i o n o f Bank C r e d i t \" , S o u t h e r n E c o n o m i c J o u r n a l , V o l . 40 ( C h a p e l H i l l , N. C a r o l i n a : U n i v e r s i t y o f N o r t h C a r o l i n a , 1974), pp. 428-433. H o r n g r e n , C h a r l e s T. C o s t A c c o u n t i n g : A M a n a g e r i a l E m p h a s i s , 4 t h E d . E n g l e w o o d C l i f f s , N . J . : P r e n t i c e - H a l l I n c . , 1977. Huang, D a v i d S. \"A S t u d y o f t h e M a r k e t f o r New H o u s i n g U n i t s \" , P r o c e e d i n g s o f t h e B u s i n e s s and E c o n o m i c S t a t i s t i c s  S e c t i o n o f t h e A m e r i c a n S t a t i s t i c a l A s s o c i a t i o n ( 1 9 6 9 ) , pp. 702-712. K e n t , R i c h a r d J . \" C r e d i t R a t i o n i n g and t h e Home M o r t g a g e M a r k e t \" , Money, C r e d i t , arid B a n k i n g , V o l . 12, No. 3 ( A u g u s t , 1980) pp. 488-501. L a n g h o u t , J . A n a l y s i s and I n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f C a n a d i a n F i n a n c i a l S t a t e m e n t s . S t . J o h n ' s N e w f o u n d l a n d : U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s o f C anada, n.d. M a i s e l , Sherman J . \"A T h e o r y o f F l u c t u a t i o n s i n R e s i d e n t i a l C o n s t r u c t i o n S t a r t s \" , The A m e r i c a n E c o n o m i c Review, V o l . I l l (June, 1 9 6 3 ) , pp. 359-379. M e i g s , W a l t e r B.; M o s i c h , A. N.; J o h n s o n , C h a r l e s E.; Lockwood, D o n a l d ; and Duncan, I . I n t e r m e d i a t e A c c o u n t i n g . 3 r d C a n a d i a n e d . T o r o n t o : M c G r a w - H i l l R y e r s o n L t d . , 1980. O s t a s , James, and Zahn, F r a n k . \" I n t e r e s t and N o n - I n t e r e s t R a t i o n i n g i n t h e M o r t g a g e M a r k e t \" , J o u r n a l o f M o n e t a r y  E c o n o m i c s , V o l . 1, No. 2 ( A p r i l , 1 9 75), pp. 187-201. P h i l i p p a t o s , G e o r g e C. E s s e n t i a l s o f F i n a n c i a l Management: T e x t  arid C a s e s . T o r o n t o : H o l d e n - D a y I n c . , 1974. P o a p s t , J . V. D e v e l o p i n g t h e R e s i d e n t i a l M o r t g a g e M a r k e t , V o l . 1. O t t a w a : Canada M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n , 1975. R a t c l i f f , R i c h a r d U. U r b a n L a n d E c o n o m i c s . T o r o n t o : M c G r a w - H i l l , 1949. S amuelson, P a u l A., and S c o t t , A n t h o n y . .Economics. 2nd e d . T o r o n t o : M c G r a w - H i l l Co. o f Canada, 196 8. S m i t h , L a w r e n c e B. \"A B i - S e c t o r a l H o u s i n g M a r k e t M o d e l \" , The C a n a d i a n J o u r n a l o f E c o n o m i c s , No. 4 (November, 1 9 6 9 ) , pp. 557-569. S m i t h , L a w r e n c e B. P o s t w a r C a n a d i a n H o u s i n g R e s i d e n t i a l M o r t g a g e  M a r k e t . T o r o n t o : U n i v e r s i t y o f T o r o n t o P r e s s , 1974. T r i n h , A r t . An A n n u a l E c o n o m e t r i c Model' o f C a n a d i a n H o u s i n g and  M o r t g a g e M a r k e t s . W o r k i n g P a p e r No. 76-3. O t t a w a : M a r k e t and I n d u s t r y A n a l y s i s D i v i s i o n , Canada M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n , 19 76. 130 T u c k e r , D o n a l d P. \" C r e d i t R a t i o n i n g , I n t e r e s t R ate L a g s , and M o n e t a r y P o l i c y S peed\", Q u a r t e r l y J o u r n a l O f E c o n o m i c s , V o l . 82 ( F e b r u a r y , 1 9 6 8 ) , pp. 54-83. Van H o m e , James C., D i p c h a n d , C e c i l , and Hanrahan, J . R o b e r t . F u n d a m e n t a l s o f F i n a n c i a l Management. 3 r d e d . S c a r b o r o u g h : P r e n t i c e - H a l l o f Canada, 1977. D a t a S o u r c e s Bank o f Canada. Bank o f Canada Review. Otta w a : Bank o f Canada, M o n t h l y . B e e c h , J . W. \" P u b l i c F i n a n c i n g f o r S m a l l Companies\", R e a d i n g s  I n C a n a d i a n B u s i n e s s F i n a n c e . E d i t e d by Samuel M a r t i n . T o r o n t o : M c G r a w - H i l l Company o f Canada L t d . , 1969. Broadway, R o b i n W., and K i t c h e n , H a r r y M. C a n a d i a n Tax P o l i c y . C a n a d i a n Tax P a p e r No. 63. T o r o n t o : C a n a d i a n Tax F o u n d a t i o n , May, 1980. Canada M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n . C a n a d i a n H o u s i n g  S t a t i s t i c s . O t t a w a : C e n t r a l M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n , A n n u a l . Chung, J o s e p h . L a n d and Low Income H o u s i n g . B a c k g r o u n d S t u d y f o r t h e T a s k F o r c e on Low Income H o u s i n g . U n p u b l i s h e d p a p e r f o r Canada M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n , 197 0. Coleman, A l i c e . The P l a n n i n g C h a l l e n g e o f t h e Ottawa A r e a . O t t a w a : Queen's P r i n t e r , 1969. D e r k o w s k i , A n d r z e j . C o s t s i n t h e Lan d D e v e l o p m e n t P r o c e s s . T o r o n t o : HUDAC Ec o n o m i c R e s e a r c h Committee, 1975. E n v i r o n m e n t Canada. M o n t h l y R e c o r d : M e t e o r o l o g i c a l O b s e r v a t i o n s . Downsview, O n t a r i o : E n v i r o n m e n t Canada, M o n t h l y . F i n a n c i a l P o s t , The. S u r v e y o f M a r k e t s . T o r o n t o : M a c l e a n - H u n t e r L t d . , A n n u a l . Governement du Quebec. A n n u a i r e du Quebec. Quebec C i t y : M i n i s t e r e de 1 1 I n d u s t r i e e r du Commerce, A n n u a l . Kalyman, B a s i l A. P r o f i t s i n t h e R e a l E s t a t e I n d u s t r y . V a n c o u v e r : F r a s e r I n s t i t u t e , 1978. L a b o u r Canada. S t r i k e s and L o c k o u t s i n Canada. C a t a l o g u e No. 331-89STR. O t t a w a : L a b o u r Canada, A n n u a l . O n t a r i o D e p a r t m e n t o f M u n i c i p a l A f f a i r s . M u n i c i p a l D i r e c t o r y . T o r o n t o : Queen's P r i n t e r , 196 0. O n t a r i o D e p a r t m e n t o f M u n i c i p a l A f f a i r s . 1951 A n n u a l R e p o r t o f M u n i c i p a l S t a t i s t i c s . T o r o n t o : Queen's P r i n t e r , 1960. 131 O n t a r i o M i n i s t r y o f C o l l e g e s and U n i v e r s i t i e s . R e p o r t o f t h e  M i n i s t r y o f U n i v e r s i t y A f f a i r s . T o r o n t o : S t a t i s t i c a l S e r v i c e s , M i n i s t r y o f C o l l e g e s and U n i v e r s i t i e s , A n n u a l . O n t a r i o M i n i s t r y o f E d u c a t i o n . E d u c a t i o n S t a t i s t i c s . T o r o n t o : M i n i s t r y o f E d u c a t i o n , A n n u a l . O n t a r i o M i n i s t r y o f E d u c a t i o n , I n f o r m a t i o n and Systems B r a n c h . P r i v a t e S c h o o l s E n r o l l m e n t . T o r o n t o : M i n i s t r y o f E d u c a t i o n , A n n u a l . O n t a r i o M i n i s t r y o f H e a l t h . H o s p i t a l S t a t i s t i c s . T o r o n t o : I n f o r m a t i o n Systems D i v i s i o n , M i n i s t r y o f H e a l t h , 1977. M i n i s t e r e de 1 ' E d u c a t i o n , Gouvernement du Quebec. S t a t i s t i q u e s  de 1 ' E n s e i g n m e n t : P e r s o n n e l E n s e i g n a n t . C a t a l o g u e No. 22-P6869-2. Quebec C i t y : Le S e r v i c e G e n e r a l C o m m u n i c a t i o n s du M i n i s t e r e de 1 ' E d u c a t i o n , A n n u a l . M i n i s t e r e de 1 ' E d u c a t i o n , Gouvernement du Quebec. R e p e r t o i r e  Pes O r g a n i s m s E t Pes E c o l e s . Quebec C i t y : L e S e r v i c e G e n e r a l Pes C o m m u n i c a t i o n s du M i n i s t e r e de 1 ' E d u c a t i o n , A n n u a l . Revenue Canada, O p e r a t i o n s R e s e a r c h and S t a t i s t i c s P i v i s i o n . T a x a t i o n S t a t i s t i c s . C a t a l o g u e No. RV44-1969 t o RV44-197 9. Ot t a w a : Revenue Canada, A n n u a l . S p u r r , P. L a n d and U r b a n D e v e l o p m e n t . T o r o n t o : James L o r i m e r and Company, 1976. S t a t i s t i c s Canada. B u i l d i n g P e r m i t s . C a t a l o g u e No. 64-203 Ottaw a : S t a t i s t i c s Canada, A n n u a l . S t a t i s t i c s Canada. C a n a d i a n S t a t i s t i c a l Review. P u b l i c a t i o n No. 11-003E. O t t a w a : S t a t i s t i c s Canada, M o n t h l y . S t a t i s t i c s C anada. C o n s t r u c t i o n P r i c e S t a t i s t i c s . C a t a l o g u e No. 62-007. O t t a w a : S t a t i s t i c s Canada, M o n t h l y . S t a t i s t i c s Canada. C o r p o r a t i o n F i n a n c i a l S t a t i s t i c s . C a t a l o g u e -No. 61-207. O t t a w a : S t a t i s t i c s Canada, A n n u a l . S t a t i s t i c s Canada. C o r p o r a t i o n T a x a t i o n S t a t i s t i c s . C a t a l o g u e No. 61-208. O t t a w a : S t a t i s t i c s Canada, A n n u a l . S t a t i s t i c s Canada. Employment E a r n i n g s and H o u r s . C a t a l o g u e s No. 72-002 M o n t h l y and No. 72-517 O c c a s i o n a l . O t t a w a : S t a t i s t i c s Canada. S t a t i s t i c s Canada. F e d e r a l Government Employment. C a t a l o g u e No. 72-004. O t t a w a : S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Q u a r t e r l y . S t a t i s t i c s Canada. F e d e r a l Government Employment i n M e t r o p o l i t a n  A r e a s . C a t a l o g u e No. 72-005. O t t a w a : S t a t i s t i c s Canada, A n n u a l . S t a t i s t i c s Canada. H i s t o r i c a l L a b o u r F o r c e S t a t i s t i c s . C a t a l o g u e No. 71-201. O t t a w a : S t a t i s t i c s Canada, A n n u a l . S t a t i s t i c s Canada. H o u s i n g . C a t a l o g u e No. 93-726. O t t a w a : S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1971. S t a t i s t i c s Canada. L o c a l Government Employment. C a t a l o g u e No. 72-009. O t t a w a : S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Q u a r t e r l y . S t a t i s t i c s Canada. N a t i o n a l Income and E x p e n d i t u r e A c c o u n t s . C a t a l o g u e s No. 13-001 Q u a r t e r l y , Nos. 13-531 and 13-53 O c c a s i o n a l and No. 13-210 A n n u a l . O t t a w a : S t a t i s t i c s C anada. S t a t i s t i c s Canada. O c c u p i e d D w e 1 l i n g s . C a t a l o g u e No. 93-727. O t t a w a : S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1971. S t a t i s t i c s Canada, The Consumer P r i c e I n d e x . C a t a l o g u e No. 63-010. O t t a w a : S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Q u a r t e r l y . APPENDIX I ESTIMATION OF THE DEPENDENT AND INDEPENDENT VARIABLES I n t r o d u c t i o n A p p e n d i x I p r o v i d e s t h e a s s u m p t i o n s and methods u s e d t o e s t i m a t e t h e d e p e n d e n t and d e t e r m i n i n g v a r i a b l e s . S p e c i f i c a l l y t h e s e l e c t e d v a r i a b l e s , and e s t i m a t e s o f t h e i r p e r i o d i c m a g n i -t u d e s , have been d i s c u s s e d i n t h e f o l l o w i n g o r d e r : 1. P o t e n t i a l P r o f i t V a r i a b l e 2. S e l l i n g P r i c e s and De v e l o p m e n t C o s t s \u2022 3. H o u s i n g U n i t E s t i m a t e s 4 . C r e d i t C o n d i t i o n s 5. M a g n i t u d e o f L o c a l C o n s t r u c t i o n I n d u s t r y S t r i k e s 6. L o c a l A d u l t P o p u l a t i o n and Income 7. S e a s o n C a t e g o r i e s P o t e n t i a l P r o f i t V a r i a b l e The i n c e n t i v e t o t h e p r i v a t e s e c t o r t o d e v e l o p h o u s e s stems f r o m t h e e x p e c t e d p r o f i t i n i n v e s t i n g i n l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t a f t e r a s s e s s i n g a l l t h e r e v e n u e s , c o s t s , and t h e n e c e s s a r y r a t e o f r e t u r n . To compute t h e e x p e r i e n c e d r a t e o f r e t u r n o f an i n v e s t m e n t i n l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t , e s t i m a t e s o f t h e f o l l o w i n g c o s t s w o u l d be r e q u i r e d : 1. raw l a n d a c q u i s i t i o n 133 134 2. h o l d i n g c h a r g e s a) i n t e r e s t c h a r g e s f o r l a n d h o l d i n g b) p r o p e r t y t a x e s 3. s u b d i v i s i o n c o s t s a) h a r d s e r v i c e s b) r o u g h g r a d i n g c) c o n s u l t a n t f e e s d) m u n i c i p a l d e v e l o p m e n t l e v i e s e) o v e r h e a d 4. b u i l d i n g and a n c i l l a r y l o t improvements 5. f i n a n c i n g c o s t s 6. income t a x e s ( l e s s a l l o w a b l e income t a x d e d u c t i o n s f r o m o t h e r income) 7. t h e r e q u i r e d r a t e o f r e t u r n However, i t has been a r g u e d t h a t a d e c i s i o n maker who has made an e x i s t i n g i n v e s t m e n t commitment s h o u l d p r i m a r i l y be c o n -c e r n e d w i t h new e x p e n d i t u r e s and r e v e n u e s . L e t b y g o n e s be b y g o n e s . . . . Don't moan a b o u t y o u r sunk c o s t s . . . . M a k e a h a r d - h e a d e d c a l c u l a t i o n o f t h e e x t r a c o s t s y o u ' l l i n c u r by any d e c i s i o n and w e i g h t h e s e a g a i n s t i t s e x t r a a d v a n t a g e s . C a n c e l o u t a l l t h e good t h i n g s and bad t h i n g s t h a t w i l l go on anyway, w h e t h e r y o u make an a f f i r m a t i v e o r ^ n e g a t i v e d e c i s i o n on t h e p o i n t u n d e r c o n s i d e r a t i o n . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e argument s t a t e s t h a t a f i r m w o u l d p r o d u c e a l o n g i t s m a r g i n a l c o s t c u r v e p r o v i d e d t h e s e l l i n g p r i c e r e c o v e r e d t h e p r o d u c t i o n v a r i a b l e c o s t s ( i n c l u d i n g a n o r m a l r e t u r n t o c a p i t a l ) . A t s u c h p o i n t s , t h e f i r m w o u l d be g e t t i n g s o m e t h i n g t o w a r d c o v e r -i n g i t s f i x e d c o s t s , and e i t h e r i t w o u l d be g e t t i n g m a x i m i z e d 2 p o s i t i v e p r o f i t s , o r a t l e a s t w o u l d be m i n i m i z i n g i t s l o s s e s . C l e a r l y , a b u s i n e s s w o u l d n o t c o n t i n u e i n d e f i n i t e l y w i t h o u t e a r n i n g enough t o c o v e r a l l c o s t s . However, t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p b etween p r e v a i l i n g s e l l i n g p r i c e s and v a r i a b l e c o s t s ( i . e . d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s ) i n p r o d u c t i o n may be more i m p o r t a n t t h a n a c t u a l p r o f i t l e v e l s i n m o d e l l i n g t h e s h o r t - r u n b e h a v i o u r o f t h e d e v e l o p m e n t i n d u s t r y . C o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h i s a s s u m p t i o n i s t h e 135 t h e o r y t h a t t h e s u p p l y o f u r b a n l a n d w o u l d t e n d t o be e l a s t i c w i t h r e s p e c t t o a p r i c e r i s e and i n e l a s t i c w i t h r e s p e c t t o a 3 p r i c e d e c l i n e . T h e r e f o r e , t h e p o t e n t i a l p r o f i t v a r i a b l e h as been b a s e d on t h e r e v e n u e s and e x p e n d i t u r e s t o d e v e l o p and m a r k e t 4 a d w e l l i n g u n i t w h i l e e x c l u d i n g \"sunk c o s t s \" . S e l l i n g P r i c e s and D e v e l o p m e n t C o s t s I n t r o d u c t i o n An a t t e m p t has been made t o e s t i m a t e t h e p r i c e s and c o s t s p e r t a i n i n g t o t h e d e v e l o p m e n t o f s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d and row h o u s e s i n t h e O n t a r i o p o r t i o n o f t h e O t t a w a - H u l l M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a t h r o u g h o u t t h e s t u d y p e r i o d . The g e n e r a l a p p r o a c h t o e s t i m a t e t h e p e r i o d i c p r i c e s and c o s t s p e r t a i n i n g t o new d e v e l o p m e n t has be e n t o e s t i m a t e v a l u e s f o r a s p e c i f i c t i m e p e r i o d ( t h a t were c o n s i s t e n t w i t h r e s p e c t t o p r i c e , q u a n t i t y , t y p e and l o c a t i o n ) and t o a d j u s t t h e s e v a l u e s b a s e d on m o n t h l y i n d i c i e s t h a t were r e p r e s e n t a t i v e o f p r i c e movements i n t h e m a r k e t . The b e s t s o u r c e o f d a t e d p r i c e s and q u a n t i t y o f new s i n g l e -d e t a c h e d and row h o u s i n g i n t h e O n t a r i o p o r t i o n o f t h e O t t a w a -H u l l M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a was t h e 1971 d a t a r e p o r t e d by t h e Canada M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n (CMHC) f o r new h o u s e s w i t h m o r t g a g e s a p p r o v e d u n d e r t h e N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t (NHA). As shown i n T a b l e A - l , t h e q u a n t i t y o f NHA mortgage a p p r o v a l s i n 1971 f o r new s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d and row h o u s e s was l a r g e i n number as w e l l as w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e t o t a l number o f s t a r t s o f a l l g r o u n d o r i e n t e d h o u s e s . T h e r e f o r e , t h e u s e o f CHMC d a t a p e r t a i n -i n g t o p r i c e s and q u a n t i t y o f new g r o u n d o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g i n t h e O n t a r i o p o r t i o n o f t h e O t t a w a - H u l l M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a and f i n a n c e d u n d e r t h e N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t , t o i n d i c a t e m a r k e t c o n d i t i o n s i n 136 1971, w o u l d a p p e a r t o be r e a s o n a b l e , T7ABLE A - l NEW GROUND-ORIENTED HOUSING IN THE ONTARIO PORTION OF THE METROPOLITAN AREA a -1971-M u n i c i p a l i t i e s : T o t a l C o s t : B u i l d i n g C o s t : Number o f U n i t s : M u n i c i p a l i t i e s : T o t a l C o s t : B u i l d i n g C o s t : Number o f U n i t s : S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d Houses Ottawa G l o u c e s t e r Nepean $30,637 $30,426 $32,662 $21,846 $22,080 $24,489 (697) 28 488 181 Row Houses (Condominium and F r e e h o l d ) Ottawa $20,104 $16,290 (698) 177 G l o u c e s t e r $21,986 $17,697 417 NHA M o r t g a g e A p p r o v a l s : T o t a l H o u s i n g S t a r t s P e r c e n t o f S t a r t s w i t h NHA M o r t g a g e A p p r o v a l s : S i n g l e Houses 6 9 7 b 2,497 27.9% Nepean $24,901 $21,359 104 Row Houses 698 1,180 59.2% D a t a o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e S t a t i s t i c a l S e r v i c e s D i v i s i o n o f t h e Canada M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n . \"\"NHA M o r t g a g e A p p r o v a l s f o r new s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s e s . ' I n c l u d e s a l l s i n g l e f a m i l y h o u s i n g ( i . e . s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d , d o u b l e s , and d u p l e x h o u s e s ) . 137 House P r i c e s The p e r i o d i c s e l l i n g p r i c e o f new s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s i n t h e O n t a r i o p o r t i o n o f t h e O t t a w a - H u l l M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a , has been b a s e d on an e s t i m a t e o f t h e a v e r a g e m o n t h l y p r i c e i n 1971 and a m o n t h l y p r i c e i n d e x t h a t m e a s u r e s movements i n t h e a v e r a g e s e l l i n g p r i c e o f new h o u s e s o f f i x e d p r o p o r t i o n s and l o c a t i o n , t h r o u g h o u t t h e s t u d y p e r i o d . The a v e r a g e m o n t h l y p r i c e i n 1971 o f new s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s has been a p p r o x i m a t e d by t h e 1971 a n n u a l a v e r a g e t o t a l c o s t ($31,015) o f NHA f i n a n c e d new s i n g l e -d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s i n t h e l a r g e r m u n i c i p a l i t i e s o f t h e O n t a r i o p o r t i o n o f t h e O t t a w a - H u l l M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a ( i . e . C i t y o f Ottawa and t h e T o w n s h i p s o f G l o u c e s t e r and N e p e a n ) . B e c a u s e t h e a v e r a g e t o t a l c o s t a p p r o x i m a t e l y e q u a l l e d t h e a v e r a g e s e l l i n g p r i c e o f NHA f i n a n c e d new s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s e s , and b e c a u s e f i f t y p e r -c e n t o f t h e number o f NHA mortgage a p p r o v a l s f o r s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s o c c u r r e d i n t h e f i r s t and s e c o n d h a l v e s o f t h e y e a r , t h e a n n u a l a v e r a g e t o t a l c o s t v a l u e w o u l d a p p e a r t o r e f l e c t s e l l -i n g p r i c e s t h r o u g h o u t t h e y e a r . 6 The e s t i m a t e d a v e r a g e m o n t h l y p r i c e o f new s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s e s has b een matched w i t h t h e 1971 a v e r a g e m o n t h l y v a l u e o f t h e p r i c e i n d e x f o r new h o u s e s , w h i c h has b een u s e d t o e s t i m a t e t h e m o n t h l y p r i c e o f t h e new s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s e s , w i t h t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e o r i g i n a l sample, t h r o u g h o u t t h e s t u d y p e r i o d . The new house p r i c e i n d e x , u s e d i n t h i s s t u d y , c o n s i s t s o f t h e S t a t i s t i c s Canada New House P r i c e I n d e x f o r O t t a w a - H u l l f o r 7 t h e p e r i o d 1970 t o 1979. F o r t h e p e r i o d 1968 t o 1969, however, a p r i c e i n d e x was computed on t h e b a s i s o f t h e r a t i o o f t h e s e l l i n g p r i c e and t h e r e c o r d e d a s s e s s m e n t v a l u e f o r new s i n g l e -g d e t a c h e d h o u s e s , i n a s i n g l e s u b - m a r k e t . 138 S u b d i v i s i o n C o s t s O b j e c t i v e ; S u b d i v i s i o n s f o r r e s i d e n t i a l d e v e l o p m e n t r e q u i r e ex-p e n d i t u r e s f o r h a r d s e r v i c e s , r o u g h g r a d i n g , c o n s u l t a n t f e e s , o v e r h e a d , and m u n i c i p a l d e v e l o p m e n t l e v i e s . The o b j e c t i v e has been t o e s t i m a t e t h e c o s t s o f p r e p a r i n g a b u i l d i n g l o t f o r a s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s e and f o r a row house i n t h e O n t a r i o p o r t i o n o f t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a . C o s t s have been computed on t h e b a s i s o f e s t i m a t e s o f t h e p r e v a i l i n g p r i c e t o p r e p a r e s e r v i c e d r e s i d e n -t i a l l a n d ( p e r u n i t and p e r f r o n t f o o t o f r o a d ) , as w e l l as t h e q u a n t i t y o f s e r v i c e d l a n d and r o a d f r o n t a g e r e q u i r e d p e r l o t t h a t w o u l d be c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e d e n s i t y o f d e v e l o p m e n t sampled. I n v i e w o f t h e a b ove, p e r i o d i c p r i c e s have been e s t i m a t e d f o r h a r d s e r v i c e s , r o u g h g r a d i n g , c o n s u l t a n t f e e s , and o v e r h e a d as w e l l as f o r m u n i c i p a l d e v e l o p m e n t l e v i e s . F u r t h e r m o r e , an a t t e m p t has b e en made t o e s t i m a t e t h e w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e l o t s i z e f o r s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s e s and f o r row h o u s e s i n f u l l y s e r v i c e d NHA a p p r o v e d s u b d i v i s i o n s , t h a t were a c t i v e i n 1971, and t o e s t i m a t e t h e r e q u i r e d r o a d f r o n t a g e p e r l o t on t h e b a s i s o f t h e r o a d f o o t a g e r e q u i r e d p e r d e v e l o p e d a c r e i n a low d e n s i t y r e s i d e n -t i a l n e i g h b o u r h o o d . I n summary, i t was e s t i m a t e d t h a t i n 19 71 t h e a v e r a g e new l o t s i z e o f t h e sample o f s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s e s w o u l d p e r m i t 5.2 l o t s p e r g r o s s a c r e (a b u i l d i n g l o t , r i g h t s -of-way, and p a r k l a n d ) and r e q u i r e 6 4 f e e t o f r o a d f r o n t a g e p e r r e s i d e n t i a l l o t . S i m i l a r l y , row h o u s i n g c o u l d be b u i l t a t 13.5 u n i t s p e r g r o s s a c r e ( i . e . 15 u n i t s p e r n e t a c r e ) and r e q u i r e 9 2 7 f e e t o f r o a d f r o n t a g e p e r u n i t . S e r v i c i n g C o s t s . S e r v i c i n g e x p e n d i t u r e s i n c l u d e t h o s e i n c u r r e d f o r r o u g h g r a d i n g , h a r d s e r v i c e s , c o n s u l t a n t s f e e s and o v e r h e a d 139 t o p r e p a r e l a n d f o r d e v e l o p m e n t . C o n s u l t i n g c o s t s i n c l u d e e x p e n d i t u r e s i n c u r r e d f o r d e s i g n c o n s u l t a n t s , s u p e r v i s i o n o f t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n by c o n s u l t a n t s a s w e l l as a d m i n i s t r a t i o n and i n t e r -m i t t e n t s u p e r v i s i o n by t h e m u n i c i p a l i t y . O v e r h e a d e x p e n d i t u r e s c o n s i s t o f t h e management e x p e n d i t u r e s o f t h e d e v e l o p e r i n c l u d i n g o f f i c e s t a f f , r e n t , r e s e a r c h and a d v e r t i s i n g . I n t h i s s t u d y , an a t t e m p t h as b e e n made t o d e t e r m i n e t h e p e r i o d i c c o s t s f o r t h e s e a c c o u n t s b a s e d on an e s t i m a t e o f t h e p e r i o d i c p r i c e p e r f o o t o f r o a d f r o n t a g e and t h e s p e c i f i c f e e t o f r o a d f r o n t a g e p e r r e s i -d e n t i a l l o t ( i . e . 64 f e e t f o r a s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s e and 27 f e e t f o r a row h o u s e ) . The p e r i o d i c p r i c e p e r f r o n t f o o t o f r o a d has been b a s e d on a n n u a l d a t a between 196 8 and 1979. A n n u a l v a l u e s have been assumed t o r e p r e s e n t t h e m i d - y e a r p r i c e and e s t i m a t e s o f m o n t h l y v a l u e s have been e s t i m a t e d by i n t e r p o l a t i n g between t h e s e p o i n t s . M u n i c i p a l D e v e l o p m e n t L e v i e s . The m u n i c i p a l d e v e l o p m e n t l e v i e s i n c l u d e t h e s t a n d a r d c h a r g e p e r l o t as w e l l a s , i f a p p l i c a b l e , a c h a r g e p e r d e v e l o p e d a c r e . The p e r i o d i c d e v e l o p m e n t l e v i e s f o r s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d and row h o u s e s i n t h e O n t a r i o p o r t i o n o f t h e O t t a w a - H u l l M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a have been e s t i m a t e d by t h e 19 71 a v e r a g e m o n t h l y c h a r g e and a m o n t h l y p r i c e i n d e x , f o r e a c h h o u s i n g t y p e , t h a t m e a s u r e s c h a n g e s i n t h e l e v y amount t h r o u g h -o u t t h e s t u d y p e r i o d . I t was n o t e d t h a t d e v e l o p m e n t l e v i e s v a r y f r o m one t y p e o f h o u s i n g u n i t t o a n o t h e r as w e l l as f r o m one m u n i c i p a l i t y t o a n o t h e r . I n v i e w o f t h e above an a t t e m p t was made t o s t a n d a r d i z e t h e l o c a t i o n o f d e v e l o p m e n t i n o r d e r t h a t t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e e s t i m a t e d m u n i c i p a l d e v e l o p m e n t l e v i e s , and t h u s t h e d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s , f o r s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d and 140 row h o u s e s w o u l d n o t be d i s t o r t e d by t h e d i f f e r e n t l o c a t i o n s o f d e v e l o p m e n t p r e v a i l i n g i n t h e b a s e t i m e p e r i o d . However, t h e m o n t h l y p r i c e i n d i c i e s , t h a t r e f l e c t t h e p e r i o d i c c h a n g e s i n d e v e l o p m e n t l e v i e s , were b a s e d on t h e a v e r a g e l o c a t i o n s o f s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d and row h o u s i n g d e v e l o p m e n t t h r o u g h o u t t h e s t u d y p e r i o d as n o t e d b e l o w . F o r s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s e s , t h e 1971 a v e r a g e m o n t h l y l e v y was b a s e d on t h e w e i g h t e d a p p l i c a b l e c h a r g e s o f t h e l a r g e r muni-c i p a l i t i e s o f t h e O n t a r i o p o r t i o n o f t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a ( i . e . t h e C i t y o f Ottawa, and t h e T o w n s h i p s o f G l o u c e s t e r and N e p e a n ) , where t h e w e i g h t s were t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e NHA m o r t g a g e a p p r o v -a l s f o r new s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s t h a t were i n e a c h m u n i c i p a l -i t y . The m o n t h l y i n d e x t o measure c h a n g e s i n t h e d e v e l o p m e n t l e v i e s f o r s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s e s was d e s i g n e d t o r e f l e c t t h e a v e r a g e l o c a t i o n o f a l l s i n g l e - f a m i l y h o u s i n g d e v e l o p m e n t ( i . e . s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d , d o u b l e s , and d u p l e x h o u s e s ) t h r o u g h o u t t h e s t u d y p e r i o d and i n p a r t i c u l a r t h e e s t i m a t i o n p e r i o d . S p e c i f i c a l l y t h i s i n d e x was b a s e d on t h e m o n t h l y w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e c h a r g e s f o r s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s e s , i n t h e t h r e e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s n o t e d above, where t h e w e i g h t s were t h e a v e r a g e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e number o f s i n g l e - f a m i l y d w e l l i n g s t a r t s t h a t o c c u r e d i n e a c h m u n i c i p a l i t y between 1968 and 1977. S i m i l a r l y , f o r row h o u s i n g t h e 1971 a v e r a g e m o n t h l y l e v y was b a s e d on t h e w e i g h t e d c h a r g e s o f t h e C i t y o f Ottawa and t h e T o w n s h i p s o f G l o u c e s t e r and Nepean; b u t , t h e w e i g h t s u s e d were t h e same as t h o s e u s e d t o d e t e r m i n e t h e 1971 w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e m o n t h l y l e v y f o r s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s e s , i n o r d e r t h a t t h e d i f f e r -e n c e between t h e a v e r a g e s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d and row house d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s w o u l d n o t s i m p l y r e f l e c t d i f f e r e n t d e v e l o p m e n t l o c a t i o n s . 141 However, t h e m o n t h l y i n d e x o f d e v e l o p m e n t l e v i e s f o r row h o u s i n g was d e s i g n e d t o r e f l e c t t h e l o c a t i o n o f t h i s t y p e o f d e v e l o p m e n t t h r o u g h o u t t h e s t u d y p e r i o d and i n p a r t i c u l a r t h e e s t i m a t i o n p e r i o d . S p e c i f i c a l l y t h i s l e v y i n d e x was b a s e d on t h e m o n t h l y w e i g h t e d a v e r a g e l e v y f o r row h o u s e s , i n t h e t h r e e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s n o t e d above, where t h e w e i g h t s were t h e a v e r a g e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e number o f row h o u s i n g s t a r t s t h a t o c c u r r e d i n e a c h m u n i c i p a l i t y between 1968 and 1977. B u i l d i n g and \/ A n c i l l a r y L o t improvement C o s t s B u i l d i n g and a n c i l l a r y l o t improvement c o s t s i n c l u d e ex-p e n d i t u r e s f o r t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n o f a h o u s e , d r i v e w a y and l a t e r a l s t o t h e l o t l i n e as w e l l as b u i l d i n g p e r m i t f e e s . The p e r i o d i c c o s t s f o r b u i l d i n g and a n c i l l a r y l o t improvements f o r s i n g l e -d e t a c h e d and row h o u s e s i n t h e O n t a r i o p o r t i o n o f t h e O t t a w a - H u l l M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a has b e e n b a s e d on an e s t i m a t e o f a v e r a g e m o n t h l y c o s t i n 1971 and a m o n t h l y p r i c e i n d e x t h a t m e a s u r e s movements i n b u i l d i n g c o s t s o f new h o u s e s o f f i x e d p r o p o r t i o n s and l o c a t i o n s , t h r o u g h o u t t h e s t u d y p e r i o d . The e s t i m a t e o f t h e 1971 a v e r a g e m o n t h l y b u i l d i n g and l o t improvement c o s t s , t h a t c o r r e s p o n d t o t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e a v e r a g e s e l l i n g p r i c e o f t h e sample o f s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s , has b een 12 e s t i m a t e d t o be $22,696. T h i s e s t i m a t e r e p r e s e n t s t h e 1971 w e i g h t e d a n n u a l a v e r a g e b u i l d i n g c o s t s r e p o r t e d by t h e owners and b u i l d e r s a p p l y i n g f o r t h e a p p r o v a l o f m o r t g a g e s u n d e r t h e N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t f o r new s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s i n t h e t h r e e l a r g e s t m u n i c i p a l i t i e s i n t h e O n t a r i o p o r t i o n o f t h e O t t a w a - H u l l M e t r o p o l -i t a n A r e a . S i m i l a r l y , t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e 1971 a v e r a g e m o n t h l y b u i l d i n g and l o t improvement c o s t s f o r row h o u s i n g , t h a t c o r r e s -142 ponds t o t h e same l o c a t i o n o f t h e sample o f t h e s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s e s c o n s i d e r e d , h as been e s t i m a t e d t o be $18,591. T h i s e s t i -mate r e p r e s e n t s t h e 1971 w e i g h t e d a n n u a l a v e r a g e b u i l d i n g c o s t s r e p o r t e d by t h e owners and b u i l d e r s a p p l y i n g f o r t h e a p p r o v a l o f m o r t g a g e s u n d e r t h e N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t f o r new row h o u s i n g (condominium and f r e e - h o l d t e n u r e ) i n t h e t h r e e l a r g e s t m u n i c i p a l -i t i e s i n t h e O n t a r i o p o r t i o n o f t h e O t t a w a - H u l l M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a . However, t h e w e i g h t s u s e d were t h e same as t h o s e u s e d t o d e t e r m i n e t h e 1971 w e i g h t e d m o n t h l y a v e r a g e b u i l d i n g c o s t s f o r s i n g l e -d e t a c h e d h o u s e s , i n o r d e r t h a t t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e e s t i -m ated a v e r a g e s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d and row house d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s w o u l d n o t s i m p l y r e f l e c t d i f f e r e n t d e v e l o p m e n t l o c a t i o n s . S i m i l a r t o t h e d i s c u s s i o n on house p r i c e s , t h e e s t i m a t e d a v e r a g e m o n t h l y c o s t s have b e e n matched w i t h t h e 1971 a v e r a g e m o n t h l y v a l u e s o f t h e r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g c o n s t r u c t i o n c o s t i n -dex, w h i c h has been u s e d t o e s t i m a t e t h e m o n t h l y c o s t t o c o n s t r u c t new s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d and row h o u s e s , w i t h c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e o r i g i n a l s a m p l e s , t h r o u g h o u t t h e s t u d y p e r i o d . The r e s i d e n t i a l b u i l d i n g c o s t i n d e x c o n s i s t s o f t h e S t a t i s t i c s Canada r e s i d e n t i a l c o n s t r u c t i o n i n p u t c o s t i n d e x f o r O n t a r i o f o r t h e p e r i o d 1971 t o 13 1979, and t h e i n d e x f o r Canada f o r t h e p e r i o d 1968 t o 1970. Lan d C o s t Repayment I n t h e O n t a r i o p o r t i o n o f t h e O t t a w a - H u l l M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a , d e v e l o p e r s w o u l d a p p e a r t o have made m a j o r l a n d a c q u i s i t i o n s many y e a r s p r i o r t o t h e s t u d y p e r i o d . However, on t h e b a s i s o f t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t l a n d h o l d i n g s t h r o u g h o u t t h e s t u d y p e r i o d were s u b j e c t t o an o u t s t a n d i n g m o r t g a g e , i t w o u l d be n e c e s s a r y t o e s t i m a t e t h e p r i n c i p a l r e p a y m e n t upon t h e s a l e o f a h o u s e . F u r -143 t h e r m o r e , i n o r d e r t o e s t i m a t e t h e income t a x e x p e n s e s t h a t w o u l d o c c u r ( g i v e n t h e d e c i s i o n t o d e v e l o p ) , i t w o u l d be n e c e s s a r y t o e s t i m a t e t h e o r i g i n a l a c q u i s i t i o n p r i c e and f i n a n c i n g c h a r a c t e r -i s t i c s w h i c h w o u l d a f f e c t t h e m a g n i t u d e o f t h e p e r m i t t e d t a x d e d u c t i o n s . A l t h o u g h i t has n o t been p o s s i b l e t o d e t e r m i n e d e t a i l s o f l a n d t r a n s a c t i o n s , a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d e v e l o p m e n t o c c u r r i n g a t v a r i o u s t i m e s t h r o u g h o u t t h e s t u d y p e r i o d , an a t t e m p t was made t o e s t i m a t e t h e p r i c e p a i d f o r l a n d a d j a c e n t t o d e v e l o p i n g a r e a s d u r i n g a p e r i o d when c o n s i d e r a b l e d e v e l o p e r l a n d a c q u i s i t i o n was e x p e r i -e n c e d . I t has b e e n assumed t h a t l a n d may have been a c q u i r e d by d e v e l o p e r s as e a r l y as 1960, d u r i n g a \" l a n d boom\" p e r i o d and t h a t an a c q u i s i t i o n p r i c e o f $1800 p e r a c r e may r e p r e s e n t a t y p i c a l 14 raw l a n d p r i c e , a l t h o u g h on t h e h i g h s i d e . The o u t s t a n d i n g p r i n c i p a l t o be r e p a i d f o r s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s e s ($173 p e r l o t ) has been e s t i m a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e a c q u i s i t i o n p r i c e , t h e s p e c i f i c a t i o n o f 5.2 l o t s p e r g r o s s a c r e , a l o a n - t o - v a l u e r a t i o o f 5 0 p e r c e n t , and t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t no o r i g i n a l p r i n c i p a l h as 15 been r e p a i d . F u r t h e r m o r e , i t has been assumed t h a t i n t e r e s t payments have b e e n b a s e d on an i n t e r e s t r a t e o f 7.26 p e r c e n t w h i c h r e p r e s e n t s t h e a v e r a g e c o n v e n t i o n a l m o r t g a g e r a t e o f l e n d i n g i n -s t i t u t i o n s i n O n t a r i o i n 1 9 6 0 . ^ A d d i t i o n a l H o l d i n g C h a r g e s A d d i t i o n a l h o l d i n g c h a r g e s as a c o n s e q u e n c e o f d e v e l o p i n g l a n d h as b e e n e s t i m a t e d by t h e i n c r e a s e i n p r o p e r t y t a x e s a t t r i -b u t e d t o t h e improvement i n l a n d a s p a r t o f t h e d e v e l o p m e n t a c t i -v i t y . The i n c r e a s e i n p r o p e r t y t a x e s has been e s t i m a t e d by t h e a v e r a g e p r o p e r t y t a x f o r s e r v i c e d l a n d minus t h e a v e r a g e p r o p e r t y 144 t a x f o r u n s e r v i c e d l a n d , b a s e d on t h e r e s i d e n t i a l - f a r m m i l l r a t e s and t h e a s s e s s m e n t o f l a n d i n t h e T o w n s h i p s o f G l o u c e s t e r and 17 Nepean. I t has a l s o b e e n assumed t h a t a l l p r o p e r t y t a x e s a r e p a i d i n J a n u a r y and t h a t d u r i n g t h e d e v e l o p m e n t p h a s e p r o p e r t y t a x e s w o u l d be b a s e d on t h e a s s e s s m e n t o f s e r v i c e d l o t s . D e v e l o p m e n t F i n a n c i n g C o s t s D e v e l o p e r s f i n a n c e i n v e s t m e n t s by b u s i n e s s l o a n s , m o r t g -a g e s , bonds and e q u i t y ( i n t h e f o r m o f s t o c k and r e t a i n e d e a r n -i n g s ) . The e x p e n d i t u r e s r e q u i r e d f o r f i n a n c i n g t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n p h a s e o f a d e v e l o p m e n t depend upon t h e m a g n i t u d e o f t h e p r i n c i p a l , t h e p r e v a i l i n g i n t e r e s t r a t e s , f i n a n c i n g f e e s , and t h e a m o r t i z -a t i o n p e r i o d o f b o r r o w e d f u n d s , as w e l l as f l o t a t i o n c o s t s a s s o c -i a t e d w i t h t h e i s s u e o f bonds and s t o c k s . The s i z e o f t h e p r i n c i p a l has been b a s e d on e s t i m a t e s o f t h e c o s t o f s u b d i v i s i o n , b u i l d i n g and l o t improvements as w e l l as t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f c a p i t a l c o s t s t o be f u n d e d by b o r r o w i n g . An a t t e m p t has been made t o d e t e r m i n e t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f i n v e s t m e n t f u n d s o b t a i n e d by b u s i n e s s l o a n s m o r t g a g e s and b o n d s . The p r o -p o r t i o n o f c a p i t a l d e r i v e d f r o m d i f f e r e n t s o u r c e s s h o u l d be b a s e d on t h e m a r k e t v a l u e s o f t h e c a p i t a l components. T h i s w o u l d r e -q u i r e d e t e r m i n i n g t h e m a r k e t v a l u e o f a l l d e b t s (some o f w h i c h may n o t be t r a d e d a t a l l ) and t h e m a r k e t v a l u e o f common e q u i t y (number o f s h a r e s t i m e s t h e c u r r e n t p r i c e p e r s h a r e ) , and r e c o n -18 s t r u c t i n g a m a r k e t v a l u e c a p i t a l s t r u c t u r e . B r i g h a m n o t e s , however, t h a t e v e n t h o u g h i t w o u l d be t h e o r e t i c a l l y p r e f e r a b l e t o use m a r k e t v a l u e w e i g h t s , most f i r m s ( f o r p r a c t i c a l r e a s o n s ) w o u l d , 19 i n f a c t , t a r g e t on book v a l u e c a p i t a l s t r u c t u r e s . I n v i e w o f t h e above, an a t t e m p t has been made t o e s t i m a t e t h e p r e v a i l i n g 145 a v e r a g e s t r u c t u r e o f d e v e l o p e r s , i n t h e s t u d y a r e a , on t h e b a s i s o f S t a t i s t i c s Canada d a t a on t h e book v a l u e l i a b i l i t i e s o f \" R e a l 20 E s t a t e O p e r a t o r s and D e v e l o p e r s \" . S p e c i f i c a l l y an a t t e m p t has been made t o e s t i m a t e t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f c a p i t a l t h a t may be c o n -s i d e r e d as b u s i n e s s l o a n s , m o r t g a g e d e b t , bond d e b t , and e q u i t y 21 ( p r e f e r r e d and common s t o c k , as w e l l as r e t a i n e d e a r n i n g s ) . I n v i e w o f t h e above, t h e m a g n i t u d e o f t h e p r i n c i p a l o f b o r r o w e d f u n d s has been d e t e r m i n e d by t h e p r o d u c t o f t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f c a p i t a l composed o f d e b t i n s t r u m e n t s and t h e d e v e l o p m e n t p h a s e e x p e n d i t u r e s . The a m o r t i z a t i o n p e r i o d has been assumed t o be 12 months t o f i n a n c e t h e s u b d i v i s i o n o f l a n d and 6 months t o f i n a n c e t h e b u i l d i n g o f a house and l o t i m p r o v e m e n t s , w i t h a l l t h e p r i n c i p a l 22 r e p a i d upon t h e s a l e o f a h o u s e . I n t e r e s t payments have been assumed t o o c c u r m o n t h l y b a s e d on t h e w e i g h t e d - a v e r a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e and t h e o u t s t a n d i n g p r i n c i p a l . The w e i g h t e d - a v e r a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e has been b a s e d on an e s t i m a t e o f t h e i n t e r e s t r a t e f o r b u s i -n e s s l o a n s ( p r i m e b u s i n e s s bank r a t e p l u s 2 p e r c e n t ) , t h e c o n v e n -t i o n a l m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e , and t h e a v e r a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e o f 2 0 c o r p o r a t e b onds, w e i g h t e d by t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e c a p i t a l 23 s t r u c t u r e composed o f e a c h d e b t i n s t r u m e n t . M o r t g a g e and b r o k e r a g e f e e s have been assumed m i n i m a l i n v i e w o f t h e l a r g e b u i l d e r s i n t h e a r e a and t h e p o t e n t i a l f o r f a v o u r a b l e f i n a n c i n g t e r m s . F l o t a t i o n c o s t s have been d e b i t e d c o i n c i d e n t t o i n i t i a l c a s h o u t l a y s and e s t i m a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f 8 p e r c e n t o f t h e bond and s t o c k c a p i t a l u s e d t o f i n a n c e t h e s u b d i v i s i o n , b u i l d i n g and 24 l o t i m p r o v e m e n t s as w e l l as a d d i t i o n a l l a n d h o l d i n g c h a r g e s . 146 Income T a x e s Income t a x (ITAX) e x p e n d i t u r e s , have been d e t e r m i n e d by m u l t i p l y i n g t h e p r e v a i l i n g t a x r a t e t i m e s t h e n e t r e v e n u e . The t a x r a t e (TR) has been d e t e r m i n e d by t h e p r e v a i l i n g F e d e r a l c o r p o r a t e t a x r a t e ( a d j u s t e d f o r s u r t a x e s and d i s c o u n t s ) minus 25 t h e p r o v i n c i a l a b a t e m e n t p l u s t h e O n t a r i o c o r p o r a t e t a x r a t e . The n e t r e v e n u e has been e s t i m a t e d by s u b t r a c t i n g e l i g i b l e d e d u c -t i o n s f r o m t h e s e l l i n g p r i c e o f a house (HP). The e l i g i b l e d e d u c t i o n s i n c l u d e t h e t o t a l c o s t s f o r s u b d i v i d i n g l a n d (SUB), b u i l d i n g a house and l o t improvements (BLDG), f i n a n c i n g ( F I N C ) , l a n d a c q u i s i t i o n (LAND), and f o r l a n d h o l d i n g e x p e n d i t u r e s t h a t 2 6 have n o t a l r e a d y b e en d e d u c t e d (HOLD). E l i g i b l e l a n d h o l d i n g c o s t d e d u c t i o n s have been b a s e d on p r o p e r t y t a x e s and m o n t h l y i n t e r e s t payments t o meet mortgage commitments t o c a r r y l a n d h o l d i n g s a s w e l l a s on p r e v a i l i n g t a x r e g u l a t i o n s . P r i o r t o May o f 1974, h o l d i n g c o s t s a t t r i b u t e d t o d e v e l o p m e n t have been d e t e r m i n e d by an e s t i m a t e o f t h e d i f f e r e n c e between p r o p e r t y t a x e s computed on s e r v i c e d and raw l a n d a s s e s s -27 ment. S u b s e q u e n t l y , h o l d i n g c o s t s have been b a s e d on t h e a c c u -m u l a t e d sum o f i n t e r e s t payments and p r o p e r t y t a x e s . B a s e d on t h e above t h e e s t i m a t e o f income t a x e x p e n d i t u r e s has been b a s e d on e x p r e s s i o n 5.6: ITAX = (TR) (HP-SUB-BLDG-FINC-LAND-HOLD) 5.6 R e q u i r e d R a t e o f R e t u r n W e i g h t e d - A v e r a g e C o s t o f C a p i t a l . The r e q u i r e d r a t e o f r e t u r n , o r t a r g e t r a t e o f r e t u r n , may be t h e r a t e o f t h e a v e r a g e f i r m o f com-p a r a b l e s i z e , i n t h e same l i n e o f b u s i n e s s , o r i t may be t h e m i n i -147 mum a c c e p t a b l e r a t e o f r e t u r n f o r c a p i t a l employed i n t h e b u s i n e s s , 28 b a s e d on t h e c o s t o f c a p i t a l . I n t h i s s t u d y , i t has been assumed t h a t t h e r e l a t i v e p r o f i t -a b i l i t y o f l a n d d e v e l o p m e n t i n v e s t m e n t s may be i n d i c a t e d by e s t i -m a t i n g t h e minimum a c c e p t e d r a t e o f r e t u r n by means o f t h e w e i g h t e d - a v e r a g e c o s t o f c a p i t a l . The r a t i o n a l e u n d e r l y i n g t h e w e i g h t e d - a v e r a g e c o s t o f c a p i t a l h as been t h a t b y f i n a n c i n g i n t h e p r o p o r t i o n s s p e c i f i e d and a c c e p t i n g p r o p o s a l s t h a t y i e l d more t h a n t h e w e i g h t e d - a v e r a g e c o s t , t h e f i r m w o u l d be a b l e t o i n c r e a s e t h e 29 m a r k e t p r i c e o f i t s s t o c k o v e r t h e l o n g - r u n . d e v e l o p m e n t f i r m s i n t h e Ottawa a r e a , an a t t e m p t has been made t o sum t h e c o s t s o f c a p i t a l , i n f i n a n c i n g by b u s i n e s s l o a n s , m o r t -g a g e s , bonds, s t o c k s and r e t a i n e d e a r n i n g s , t h a t have been w e i g h t e d by t h e i r p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e i n c r e m e n t a l c a p i t a l u s e d by d e v e l o p m e n t f i r m s i n Canada, as shown i n e x p r e s s i o n 5.7: C o s t o f C a p i t a l . The p e r i o d i c c o s t s o f c a p i t a l have been b a s e d on e s t i m a t e s o f t h e e x p l i c i t c o s t s o f d e b t i n s t r u m e n t s , and t h e c o s t o f e q u i t y c a p i t a l . The e x p l i c i t c o s t s o f e a c h d e b t i n s t r u m e n t has b e en c a l c u l a t e d as one minus t h e m a r g i n a l t a x r a t e t i m e s t h e a p p l i c a b l e i n t e r e s t r a t e o f t h e d e b t i n s t r u m e n t t y p e a s shown i n K o 30 e x p r e s s i o n 5.8: To e s t i m a t e t h e w e i g h t e d - a v e r a g e c o s t o f c a p i t a l o f l a n d W e i g h t e d A v e r a g e C o s t o f C a p i t a l P r o p o r t i o n o f C o s t o f C a p i t a l D e r i v e d C a p i t a l o f From E a c h s o u r c e E a c h Type o f Funds o f Funds 5.7 l E x p l i c i t C o s t s o f Debt C1.0 m a r g i n a l t a x r a t e ) x i n t e r e s t r a t e 5.8 148 The e q u i t y s o u r c e s o f f i n a n c i n g i n c l u d e p r e f e r r e d s t o c k , common s t o c k s and r e t a i n e d e a r n i n g s . B e c a u s e o f t h e s i m i l a r i t y o f t h e s e s o u r c e s o f f i n a n c i n g and t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f d a t a , an a t t e m p t has been made t o e s t i m a t e t h e c o s t o f t h i s c a p i t a l as t h e 31 b a s i s o f t h e c o s t o f common s t o c k e q u i t y . The c o s t o f common s t o c k e q u i t y , w h i c h i n c l u d e s b o t h common s t o c k i s s u e s and r e t a i n e d e a r n i n g s has b e e n d e f i n e d as t h e minimum r a t e o f r e t u r n t h a t a company must e a r n on t h e e q u i t y - f i n a n c e d p o r t i o n o f an i n v e s t m e n t p r o j e c t i n o r d e r t o l e a v e t h e m a r k e t p r i c e o f t h e s h a r e s un-32 c h a n g e d . A l t e r n a t i v e l y , i t has been d e f i n e d as t h e r e q u i r e d r e t u r n on common s t o c k . B r i g h a m has n o t e d t h a t , i n e q u i l i b r i u m , t h e e x p e c t e d r a t e o f r e t u r n must be e q u a l t o t h e r e q u i r e d r a t e o f r e t u r n , w h i c h a c c o r d i n g t o t h e C a p i t a l A s s e t P r i c i n g M o d e l may be d e f i n e d as t h e 33 sum o f a r i s k l e s s r a t e and a r i s k premium. The r i s k premium may be e s t i m a t e d by t h e d i f f e r e n c e between t h e e x p e c t e d e x c e s s r e t u r n o f t h e m a r k e t p o r t f o l i o , o r a v e r a g e s t o c k , w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e s a f e i n t e r e s t r a t e , t i m e s a c o e f f i c i e n t ( b e t a ) e x p r e s s i n g t h e r i s k 34 o f t h e t y p e o f s h a r e r e l a t i v e t o o t h e r s t o c k s . I n t h i s s t u d y , an a t t e m p t has been made t o measure t h e minimum r a t e o f r e t u r n u s i n g t h e C a p i t a l A s s e t P r i c i n g M o d e l , as shown i n e x p r e s s i o n 5.9: R e q u i r e d Minimum R i s k ( E x p e c t e d ) R e q u i r e d _ F r e e + B e t a x R a t e o f R e t u r n R a t e o f R a t e o f o f a M a r k e t R e t u r n R e t u r n P o r t f o l i o o f Common S t o c k B a s e d on c o m p u t a t i o n s made by Kalymon, t h e v a l u e o f b e t a h as been e s t i m a t e d t o be e q u a l t o 1.6 5 and t h e r e q u i r e d r a t e o f r e t u r n f o r R i s k F r e e R a t e o f R e t u r n 5.9 1 4 9 a m a r k e t p o r t f o l i o o f common s t o c k s has been e s t i m a t e d t o be e q u a l 35 t o 6.77 p e r c e n t p l u s t h e e x p e c t e d r a t e o f i n f l a t i o n . A l t h o u g h t h e r e w o u l d n o t a p p e a r t o be a s i m p l e s o l u t i o n t o d e t e r m i n e t h e p e r i o d i c e x p e c t a t i o n s p e r t a i n i n g t o t h e r a t e o f i n f l a t i o n , an a t t e m p t has been made t o e s t i m a t e p r e v a i l i n g t r e n d s by d e t e r m i n i n g t h e a v e r a g e r a t e o f i n c r e a s e i n t h e n a t i o n a l consumer p r i c e i n d e x o v e r t h e p r e c e d i n g t h r e e y e a r s . The r i s k f r e e r a t e has been p r o x i e d by t h e p r e v a i l i n g l o n g - t e r m f e d e r a l government bond i n t e r e s t r a t e , i n v i e w o f B r i g h a m ' s o b s e r v a t i o n t h a t l o n g - t e r m r a t e s have been more c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e t h e o r y t h a n have s h o r t -3 6 t e r m r a t e s . I n summary t h e r e f o r e , t h e c o s t o f e q u i t y c a p i t a l h as been e s t i m a t e d by t h e C a p i t a l A s s e t P r i c i n g M o d e l u s i n g a v a l u e o f 1.6 5 f o r beta., t h e sum o f 6.77. p e r c e n t p l u s t h e a v e r a g e r a t e o f i n f l a t i o n f o r t h e r e q u i r e d r e t u r n f r o m a m a r k e t p o r t f o l i o , and t h e l o n g - t e r m government bond r a t e as t h e r i s k f r e e r a t e . H o u s i n g U n i t E s t i m a t e s I n t r o d u c t i o n S i n c e t h e model t o be e s t i m a t e d p e r t a i n s t o p r o f i t m o t i -v a t e d g r o u n d o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s ( i n c l u d i n g t h o s e f o r p e r s o n a l u s e o r i n v e s t m e n t ) , an a t t e m p t has been made t o d e t e r m i n e t h e m o n t h l y t o t a l number o f new s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d , d o u b l e s , d u p l e x , and row h o u s i n g u n i t s , as w e l l as t h e number o f n o n - p r o f i t ( p u b l i c ) m o t i v a t e d h o u s i n g u n i t s , t h a t c o m p r i s e t h e number o f s t a r t s , com-p l e t i o n s , u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n and v a c a n t i n v e n t o r y . Non-p r o f i t ( p u b l i c ) m o t i v a t e d h o u s i n g has been d e f i n e d t o c o n s i s t o f t h o s e u n i t s f u n d e d u n d e r t h e F e d e r a l - P r o v i n c i a l P u b l i c H o u s i n g P rogram, and t h e N o n - P r o f i t C o r p o r a t i o n s Low R e n t a l H o u s i n g P r o -3 7 gram. I n g e n e r a l t h e m o n t h l y number o f h o u s i n g u n i t s by 150 c a t e g o r y f o r t h e d e f i n e d m a r k e t a r e a has b een d e t e r m i n e d u s i n g Canada M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n (CMHC) d a t a f o r m u n i c i -p a l i t i e s w i t h i n t h e C e n sus M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a ; however, e s t i m a t e s were n e e d e d f o r some s u b u r b a n m u n i c i p a l i t i e s f o r t h e y e a r s w i t h i n s t u d y p e r i o d p r i o r t o 1972. H o u s i n g S t a r t s M o n t h l y h o u s i n g s t a r t s by t y p e , f i n a n c i n g and m u n i c i p a l i t y were d e t e r m i n e d u s i n g d a t a p r o v i d e d by t h e S t a t i s t i c a l S e r v i c e s D i v i s i o n o f t h e Canada H o u s i n g and M o r t g a g e C o r p o r a t i o n (CMHC), and, t o a r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l e x t e n t , on t h e b a s i s o f b u i l d i n g p e r m i t d a t a f o r new h o u s i n g , o r t h e i n c r e a s e i n t h e h o u s i n g s t o c k , f o r some s u b u r b a n m u n i c i p a l i t i e s f o r t h e p e r i o d b e g i n n i n g i n 1967 t o 3 8 t h e e n d o f 1971. S p e c i f i c a l l y , d a t a on b u i l d i n g p e r m i t a p p r o v -a l s was o b t a i n e d f o r t h e M u n i c i p a l i t i e s o f C u m b e r l a n d , March, S o u l b o u r n , Richmond and W e s t - H u l l f r o m S t a t i s t i c s Canada and t h e i r p u b l i c a t i o n B u i l d i n g P e r m i t s C a t a l o g u e No. 64-001 ( m o n t h l y ) , o r 39 f r o m t h e T o w n s h i p o f C u m b e r l a n d . A l t h o u g h b u i l d i n g p e r m i t d a t a was t h e b e s t a l t e r n a t i v e t o CMHC i n f o r m a t i o n , i t was n e c e s s a r y t o d e t e r m i n e t h e number o f h o u s i n g s t a r t s i n t h e M u n i c i p a l i t i e s o f T o u r a i n e and T e m p l e t o n E a s t b a s e d on an e s t i m a t e o f t h e i n c r e a s e i n t h e h o u s i n g s t o c k , t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e t o t a l number o f c o m p l e -t i o n s t h a t o c c u r r e d e a c h month, and t h e p e r i o d i c t i m e l a g r e l a t i o n -40 s h i p between h o u s i n g s t a r t s and c o m p l e t i o n . H o u s i n g U n i t C o m p l e t i o n s and U n i t s Under C o n s t r u c t i o n A l t h o u g h d a t a on h o u s i n g c o m p l e t i o n s and u n i t s u n d e r c o n -s t r u c t i o n has b een made a v a i l a b l e f o r most o f t h e a r e a and t i m e p e r i o d s t u d i e d , i t h a s b e e n n e c e s s a r y t o e s t i m a t e t h e number o f c o m p l e t i o n s and u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n ( o f g r o u n d o r i e n t e d 151 d w e l l i n g s ) f o r n o n - p r o f i t h o u s i n g o v e r t h e e n t i r e s t u d y p e r i o d and f o r u n i t s n o t i n c l u d e d i n CMHC r e c o r d e d d a t a d u r i n g t h e 1968 t o 1971 p e r i o d . The method u s e d t o make t h e s e e s t i m a t e s h as been b a s e d on a s t o c k - f l o w model o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n , t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e number o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n i n any p e r i o d may be d e t e r m i n e d by a s i m p l e f u n c t i o n o f t h e most r e c e n t h o u s i n g s t a r t s p e r month, and t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t e m p o r a l c h a n ges t o t h e number o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n , n o t a t t r i b u t e d t o s t a r t s o r c o m p l e t i o n s , may be s i m i l a r f o r p r o f i t and n o n - p r o f i t h o u s i n g f o r v a r i o u s m u n i c i p a l i t i e s i n t h e a r e a . I n v i e w o f t h e ab o v e , t h e number o f c o m p l e t i o n s o f g r o u n d o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g f o r t h e added s u b u r b a n m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and non-p r o f i t h o u s i n g h a s b e e n e s t i m a t e d by t h e change i n t h e number o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n p l u s s t a r t s p l u s an a d j u s t m e n t b a s e d on 41 u n e x p l a i n e d d e l e t i o n s and a d d i t i o n s . The number o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n h as b e e n e s t i m a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e most r e c e n t s t a r t s , i n t h e added s u b u r b a n m u n i c i p a l i t i e s and o f n o n - p r o f i t h o u s i n g , and t h e e s t i m a t e d r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e number o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n and t h e most r e c e n t s t a r t s w h i c h has been d e t e r m i n e d u s i n g CMHC r e c o r d e d d a t a . S i m i l a r l y , t h e p e r i o d i c a d -j u s t m e n t t o t h e e s t i m a t e d number o f u n i t s c o m p l e t e d h as been e s t i m a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e sum o f t h e change i n CMHC r e c o r d e d u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n and s t a r t s n o t e x p l a i n e d by c o m p l e t i o n s . I n v e n t o r y o f U n o c c u p i e d New H o u s i n g U n i t s D a t a o r t h e number o f n e w l y c o m p l e t e d and u n o c c u p i e d s i n g l e , s e m i - d e t a c h e d and d u p l e x d w e l l i n g s h as been made a v a i l a b l e b y CMHC f o r t h e most o f t h e s t u d y a r e a and s t u d y p e r i o d . However, t o 1 5 2 e s t i m a t e t h e t o t a l i n v e n t o r y o f u n s o l d ( u n o c c u p i e d ) u n i t s i n t h e s t u d y a r e a , i t was n e c e s s a r y t o e s t i m a t e t h e i n v e n t o r y o f row d w e l l i n g u n i t s i n t h e s t u d y a r e a as w e l l as t h e i n v e n t o r y o f u n i t s i n t h e s u b u r b a n m u n i c i p a l i t i e s t h a t were n o t i n c l u d e d i n t h e CMHC r e c o r d e d d a t a u n t i l 1972. To a c c o m p l i s h t h i s t a s k , an a t t e m p t was made t o e s t i m a t e t h e p e r i o d i c p r o p o r t i o n o f ne w l y c o m p l e t e d g r o u n d o r i e n t e d d w e l l i n g s t h a t were n o t s o l d o r o c c u p i e d a t t h e end o f e a c h month and t o d e t e r m i n e t h e p r o d u c t o f t h i s v a l u e and t h e e s t i m a t e d t o t a l number o f ne w l y c o m p l e t e d g r o u n d o r i e n t e d d w e l l -i n g s . The p r o p o r t i o n has been e s t i m a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e CMHC r e c o r d e d number o f ne w l y c o m p l e t e d and u n o c c u p i e d s i n g l e , s e m i -42 d e t a c h e d , and d u p l e x d w e l l i n g s . The t o t a l number o f g r o u n d o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g c o m p l e t i o n s ( w h i c h i n c l u d e s b o t h p r o f i t and non-p r o f i t h o u s i n g ) has b e e n e s t i m a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e method d i s c u s s e d i n t h e p r e v i o u s s e c t i o n . L o c a l S t o c k o f Ground O r i e n t e d D w e l l i n g s The s t o c k o f g r o u n d o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g (STKOH) a t t h e b e g i n -n i n g o f e a c h month has been e s t i m a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e s t o c k o f s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d , d o u b l e s ( d u p l e x e s ) , and row h o u s i n g w i t h i n t h e s t u d y a r e a i n June o f 1971 and t h e m o n t h l y number o f c o m p l e t i o n s , as w e l l as t h e a v e r a g e m o n t h l y number o f d e m o l i t i o n s i n t h e M e t r o -4 3 p o l i t a n A r e a o f t h e s u b j e c t c l a s s o f d w e l l i n g u n i t s . C r e d i t C o n d i t i o n s I n t r o d u c t i o n An a t t e m p t h as been made t o i n d i c a t e t h e p r i c e and a v a i l a -b i l i t y o f c r e d i t p r o v i d e d by p r i v a t e i n s t i t u t i o n a l l e n d e r s and by t h e government f o r p r o f i t m o t i v a t e d h o u s i n g . I n g e n e r a l , c r e d i t 153 c o n d i t i o n s have been i n d i c a t e d by t h e p r o d u c t o f t h e p r e v a i l i n g m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e and s e v e r i t y o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y i n d e x . C r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s , u n d e r t h e a s s u m p t i o n o f t h e s y m m e t r i c e f f e c t o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y , have been s p e c i f i e d i n two f o r m s w h i c h d i f f e r w i t h r e s p e c t t o t h e a t t e m p t t o d i s t i n g u i s h between t h e f i n a n c i n g p r o v i d e d by p r i v a t e i n s t i t u t i o n a l l e n d e r s and by g o v e r n -ment : O p t i o n (A) M a r k e t c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s (SMCRED) has been i n d i c a t e d by t h e p r o d u c t o f t h e a v e r a g e mortgage i n t e r e s t r a t e (AMR) and t h e s e v e r i t y o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y i n d e x (SMA) f o r p r i v a t e i n s t i t u t i o n a l l e n d e r s and t h e Canada M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n (CMHC) d i r e c t l e n d i n g . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e a v a i l -a b i l i t y o f f a v o u r a b l e government l e n d i n g t e r m s and sub-s i d i e s t o t h e p r o f i t m o t i v a t e d s e c t o r (G\/M) has been i n d i c a t e d by t h e r a t i o o f CMHC mortgage a p p r o v a l s t o t h e t o t a l sum o f mo r t g a g e a p p r o v a l s f o r new p r o f i t m o t i v a t e d h o u s i n g by p r i v a t e i n s t i t u t i o n a l l e n d e r s and CMHC i n Canada. O p t i o n (B) An a t t e m p t has been made t o i n d i c a t e t h e c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s p r o v i d e d by p r i v a t e i n s t i t u t i o n a l l e n d e r s and government s e p a r a t e l y . The c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s p r o v i d e d by p r i v a t e i n s t i t u t i o n a l l e n d e r s (SPCRED) has been i n d i c a t e d by t h e p r o d u c t o f t h e a v e r a g e mortgage i n t e r e s t r a t e (PMR) and t h e s e v e r i t y o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y i n d e x p e r t a i n i n g t o p r i v a t e i n s t i t u t i o n a l l e n d e r s (PMA). S i m i l a r l y c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s p r o v i d e d by government (SGCRED) has been i n -d i c a t e d by t h e p r o d u c t o f t h e a v e r a g e m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e (GMR) and t h e s e v e r i t y o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y i n d e x (GMA) p e r t a i n i n g t o t h e Canada M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r -p o r a t i o n d i r e c t l e n d i n g t o t h e p r o f i t m o t i v a t e d s e c t o r . C r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s , u n d e r t h e a s s u m p t i o n o f t h e a s y m m e t r i c e f f e c t o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y , h as been s p e c i f i e d i n a s i m i l a r manner as O p t i o n (A) o f t h e s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e , e x c e p t t h e measure o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y has been m o d i f i e d t o s u p p r e s s v a l u e s t h a t i n d i c a t e d e a s i e r n o n - p r i c e c r e d i t t e r m s . M a r k e t c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s (AMCRED) has b e e n i n d i c a t e d by t h e p r o d u c t o f t h e a v e r a g e mortgage i n t e r e s t r a t e (AMR) and t h e a s y m m e t r i c s e v e r i t y o f c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y i n d e x (AMA). 154 F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f f a v o u r a b l e government l e n d i n g t e r m s and s u b s i d i e s t o t h e p r o f i t m o t i v a t e d s e c t o r (G\/M) has b e en i n d i c a t e d i n t h e same manner as d i s c u s s e d above i n O p t i o n (A) o f t h e s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s v a r i a b l e . M o r t g a g e I n t e r e s t R a t e s The a v e r a g e m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e i n t h e m a r k e t (AMR) has b e e n e s t i m a t e d by t h e w e i g h t e d - a v e r a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e o f t h e m o r t -gage i n t e r e s t r a t e s p e r t a i n i n g t o p r i v a t e i n s t i t u t i o n a l l e n d e r s (PMR) and government d i r e c t l e n d i n g (GMR), where t h e w e i g h t s r e p r e s e n t t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e m o r t g a g e a p p r o v a l s , f o r a l l new h o u s i n g t o t h e p r o f i t m o t i v a t e d s e c t o r , f r o m e a c h s o u r c e . The m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e p e r t a i n i n g t o p r i v a t e i n s t i t u t i o n a l l e n d e r s (PMR) has b e en e s t i m a t e d by t h e w e i g h t e d - a v e r a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e p e r t a i n i n g t o c o n v e n t i o n a l m o r t g a g e s and l o a n s by a p p r o v e d l e n d e r s u n d e r t h e N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t , where t h e w e i g h t s r e p r e s e n t t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e m o r t g a g e a p p r o v a l s , f o r a l l new h o u s i n g , f r o m 44 e a c h s o u r c e . The m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e p e r t a i n i n g t o t h e d i r e c t l e n d i n g b y g o v e r n m e n t (GMR) has b e e n a p p r o x i m a t e d by t h e a v e r a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e on a p p r o v e d l e n d e r s home-ownership l o a n s . C r e d i t A v a i l a b i l i t y The I n d e x . I n g e n e r a l , t h e s e v e r i t y i n c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y , o r t h e t i g h t n e s s i n n o n - p r i c e c r e d i t t e r m s ( i n c l u d i n g t h e c o m p e t i t i o n f o r money a t p r e v a i l i n g i n t e r e s t r a t e s ) has been i n d i c a t e d by t h e r a t i o o f t h e p r e v a i l i n g m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e and t h e sum o f m o r t g a g e s a p p r o v e d f o r new h o u s i n g t o t h e p r o f i t m o t i v a t e d s e c t o r i n Canada. The s y m m e t r i c a v e r a g e c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y i n d e x (SMA) w a s b a s e d on t h e a v e r a g e m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e (AMR) and t h e s e a s o n a l l y a d -j u s t e d sum o f m o r t g a g e a p p r o v a l s f o r p r o f i t m o t i v a t e d new h o u s i n g by p r i v a t e i n s t i t u t i o n a l l e n d e r s and t h e Canada M o r t g a g e and Hous-155 i n g C o r p o r a t i o n (CMHC), e x p r e s s e d i n 1971 d o l l a r s . S i m i l a r l y t h e s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y i n d i c e s f o r p r i v a t e i n s t i t u t i o n -a l l e n d e r s (PMA) and f o r government d i r e c t l e n d i n g (GMA) have been b a s e d on t h e r a t i o o f t h e a p p l i c a b l e m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e (PMR, GMR) and t h e p r e v a i l i n g m o r t g a g e a p p r o v a l s f o r new p r o f i t m o t i v a t -e d h o u s i n g , e x p r e s s e d i n c o n s t a n t 1971 d o l l a r s , b y p r i v a t e i n s t i -t u t i o n a l l e n d e r s and CMHC. However, o n l y t h e mo r t g a g e a p p r o v a l s by p r i v a t e i n s t i t u t i o n a l l e n d e r s h as been s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d s i n c e t h e r e d i d n o t a p p e a r t o be c o n s i s t e n t e v i d e n c e o f s e a s o n -a l i t y i n CMHC mo r t g a g e a p p r o v a l s . The a s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y i n d e x (TAMA) has been b a s e d on t h e s y m m e t r i c c r e d i t a v a i l a b i l i t y i n d e x (SMA) a d j u s t e d t o s u p p r e s s l o w e r l e v e l s o f t h e i n d e x ( e a s i e r c r e d i t c o n d i t i o n s ) . S p e c i f i c a l l y t h o s e v a l u e s w h i c h were computed t o be l o w e r t h a n t h e a v e r a g e (4.78203) were a s s i g n e d t h e a v e r a g e v a l u e . Q u a n t i t y o f M o r t g a g e Loans'. The q u a n t i t y o f mortgage l o a n s a p p r o v e d by p r i v a t e i n s t i t u t i o n a l l e n d e r s (PIMRT) has been e s t i m a t e d by t h e sum o f m o r t g a g e s a p p r o v e d f o r new h o u s i n g by c o n v e n t i o n a l l e n d e r s 45 and by a p p r o v e d l e n d e r s u n d e r t h e N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t . The number o f government l o a n s (CMHCMRT) a p p r o v e d f o r t h e p r o f i t m o t i v a t e d s e c t o r f o r new h o u s i n g h as been e s t i m a t e d by t h e sum o f mortgage a p p r o v a l s b y CMHC u n d e r S e c t i o n s 15.01, 15.02, 34.15, 34.18, 58.01, 58.02 and 14.12 o f t h e N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t w h i c h 46 e x c l u d e s l o a n s f o r p u b l i c h o u s i n g . F u r t h e r m o r e , t o e x p r e s s t h e m a g n i t u d e o f mo r t g a g e l o a n s i n c o n s t a n t 1971 d o l l a r s , t h e p r e v a i l -i n g m o n t h l y m o r t g a g e a p p r o v a l s were d i v i d e d by an e s t i m a t e o f t h e m o n t h l y a v e r a g e p r i c e l e v e l s i n t h e n a t i o n a l economy. 156 N a t i o n a l P r i c e s . The c o s t o f goods and s e r v i c e s i n t h e economy (MGNEP) ha s b e e n i n d i c a t e d by an e s t i m a t e o f t h e m o n t h l y g r o s s 4 7 n a t i o n a l e x p e n d i t u r e d e f l a t o r . T h i s e s t i m a t e has b een b a s e d on t h e p u b l i s h e d q u a r t e r l y v a l u e , t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e a v e r a g e m o n t h l y r a t e o f i n f l a t i o n between t h e m i d d l e months o f e a c h q u a r -t e r may be a p p r o x i m a t e d by t h e g e o m e t r i c r a t e o f i n c r e a s e between q u a r t e r s , and t h a t t h e a v e r a g e m o n t h l y p r i c e i n d e x i n any q u a r t e r may be a p p r o x i m a t e d by t h e p u b l i s h e d q u a r t e r l y v a l u e . T h e r e f o r e , t h e f i r s t s t e p was t o c a l c u l a t e t h e g e o m e t r i c r a t e o f i n c r e a s e between t h e c u r r e n t and p r e c e d i n g q u a r t e r as w e l l as w i t h t h e f o l l o w i n g q u a r t e r . The s e c o n d s t e p was t o e x p r e s s t h e e s t i m a t e d p r i c e i n d e x f o r e a c h month as a f u n c t i o n o f t h e v a l u e o f t h e m i d d l e month and t h e c o r r e s p o n d i n g r a t e o f i n c r e a s e c a l c u l a t e d i n s t e p one. The t h i r d s t e p i n v o l v e d a d d i n g t h e e x p r e s s i o n s i n s t e p two, d i v i d i n g by t h r e e t o d e t e r m i n e an a v e r a g e , e q u a t i n g t h i s ex-p r e s s i o n w i t h t h e p u b l i s h e d q u a r t e r l y v a l u e , and s o l v i n g f o r t h e s i n g l e unknown t o e s t i m a t e t h e p r i c e i n d e x f o r t h e m i d d l e month i n t h e q u a r t e r . The f o u r t h s t e p u s e d t h e e s t i m a t e d v a l u e f o r t h e m i d d l e month, and t h e e x p r e s s i o n s i n s t e p two, t o e s t i m a t e t h e p r i c e i n d e x f o r t h e f i r s t and t h i r d months. A l t h o u g h t h e method was n o t p e r f e c t , i t p r o v i d e d a s i m p l e means t o smooth an i m p o r t a n t i n d i c a t o r o f t h e p u r c h a s i n g power o f money. M a g n i t u d e o f L o c a l C o n s t r u c t i o n I n d u s t r y S t r i k e s An a t t e m p t has b een made t o i d e n t i f y t h e m a g n i t u d e o f m a j o r s t r i k e s i n t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n i n d u s t r y t h a t w o u l d a f f e c t r e s i d e n t i a l d e v e l o p m e n t i n t h e O t t a w a - H u l l M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a . An e s t i m a t e o f t h e number o f man-days o f c o n s t r u c t i o n work l o s t has b e e n made b a s e d on t h e s t r i k e s i n t h e c o n s t r u c t i o n i n d u s t r y r e c o r d e d i n 157 L a b o u r Canada's p u b l i c a t i o n S t r i k e s and L o c k o u t s i n Canada and 48 a r t i c l e s i n t h e l o c a l n e w s p a p e r s . M a j o r s t r i k e s have been d e f i n e d as t h r e e d a y s o r more and i n v o l v i n g 5 0 men o r more, i n o r d e r t o e a s e t h e work i n v o l v e d i n i d e n t i f y i n g t h e number o f man-d a y s . L o c a l A d u l t P o p u l a t i o n and Income P o p u l a t i o n To i n d i c a t e t h e number o f a d u l t s , w h i c h c o n t r i b u t e t o t h e q u a n t i t y o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g demanded and s h a r e s t h e t o t a l d i s p o s a l income, an a t t e m p t has b e e n made t o e s t i m a t e t h e p e r i o d i c s i z e o f t h e l o c a l l a b o u r f o r c e (LABOH), b a s e d on t h e m o n t h l y number o f e m p l o y e e s and t h e unemployment r a t e i n t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t a r e a . The m a g n i t u d e o f t h e e m p l o y e d l a b o u r f o r c e has been computed by t h e sum o f t h e m o n t h l y e s t i m a t e s o f t h e number o f e m p l o y e e s i n t h e c o m m e r c i a l s e c t o r o f t h e economy, t h e f e d e r a l govenment, l o c a l g o v e r n m e n t s , t h e p u b l i c and p r i v a t e s c h o o l s , t h e c o l l e g e s and 49 u n i v e r s i t i e s , as w e l l as t h e h o s p i t a l s . Where m o n t h l y d a t a was a v a i l a b l e ( c o m m e r c i a l s e c t o r and l o c a l government employment), t h e e s t i m a t e was b a s e d on a s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d s e r i e s . However, when o n l y a n n u a l d a t a was a v a i l a b l e , e s t i m a t e s o f t h e m o n t h l y v a l u e s were b a s e d on t h e a v e r a g e r a t e o f i n c r e a s e ( f e d e r a l government and h o s p i t a l s e mployment), o r on an assumed p e r i o d when employment l e v e l s w o u l d l i k e l y be s t a b l e ( s c h o o l s , c o l l e g e s and u n i v e r s i t i e s ) . B e c a u s e t h e computed t o t a l e m p l o y e d l a b o u r f o r c e has been b a s e d on t h e summations o f s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d e s t i m a t e s o r e s t i m a t e s where s e a s o n a l v a r i a t i o n w o u l d n o t be i n d i c a t e d , t h e t o t a l l a b o u r f o r c e h as b e e n e s t i m a t e d b a s e d on t h e q u o t i e n t o f t h e t o t a l employed 158 i l a b o u r f o r c e d i v i d e d by one m i n u s t h e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d m o n t h l y 50 unemployment r a t e f o r t h e O t t a w a - H u l l C e nsus M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a . Income The p u r c h a s i n g power o f a p o p u l a t i o n depends upon i t s s a v -i n g s and income a f t e r t a x e s . A l t h o u g h i t i s d i f f i c u l t t o e s t i m a t e t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f s a v i n g s an a t t e m p t has b een made t o e s t i m a t e l o c a l d i s p o s a b l e income l e v e l s . The d i s p o s a b l e income (DIOH) o f a d u l t s i n t h e m a r k e t a r e a has b e e n b a s e d on an e s t i m a t e o f t h e a n n u a l income and on t h e b a s i s o f t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e a v e r a g e m o n t h l y r a t e o f i n c r e a s e between t h e m i d d l e p o i n t o f e a c h y e a r i n t h e s t u d y p e r i o d may be a p p r o x i m a t e d by t h e g e o m e t r i c r a t e o f i n -c r e a s e between a n n u a l income e s t i m a t e s . A n n u a l d i s p o s a b l e income l e v e l s have been e s t i m a t e d by d i v i d i n g t h e a n n u a l t o t a l d i s p o s a b l e income i n t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a o f Ottawa and H u l l (as r e p o r t e d by Revenue Canada) by an e s t i m a t e o f t h e t o t a l l o c a l l a b o u r f o r c e 51 c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e t i m i n g o f t h e d a t a c o l l e c t i o n . S p e c i f i -c a l l y t h e t o t a l l a b o u r f o r c e c o n s i s t e n t w i t h t h e d a t e o f f i l i n g t a x r e t u r n s has been computed by t h e a v e r a g e o f t h e l a b o u r f o r c e e s t i m a t e s i n t h e f i r s t f o u r months i n t h e f o l l o w i n g y e a r . The c o s t o f l o c a l consumer goods and s e r v i c e s has b een i n d i c a t e d by 52 t h e consumer p r i c e i n d e x f o r t h e O t t a w a - H u l l M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a . S e a s o n s C a t e g o r i e s E a c h month was i d e n t i f i e d as b e i n g w i t h i n one o f f o u r s e a s o n s i n a c c o r d a n c e w i t h i t s c a l e n d a r p o s i t i o n and a v e r a g e w e a t h e r s e v e r i t y . S p e c i f i c a l l y t h o s e months w i t h an a v e r a g e m o n t h l y t e m p e r a t u r e b e l o w f r e e z i n g were d e f i n e d as w i n t e r ( i . e . December, J a n u a r y , F e b r u a r y , March) t o i n d i c a t e c o l d t e m p e r a t u r e , snow a c c u m u l a t i o n s and s h o r t e r d a y s . I n c o n t r a s t t h o s e months 1 5 9 w i t h an a v e r a g e m o n t h l y t e m p e r a t u r e o f s i x t y d e g r e e s o r more were 5 3 . . d e f i n e d t o be summer ( i . e . J u n e , J u l y , A u g u s t ) . T h e - r e m a i n i n g months were c l a s s i f i e d as S p r i n g and F a l l a c c o r d i n g l y . 160 F o o t n o t e s ''\"Paul A. Samuelson and A n t h o n y S c o t t , E c o n o m i c s (2d e d . ; T o r o n t o : M c G r a w - H i l l Company o f Canada, 1 9 6 8 ) , p. 551. 2 I b i d . , p. 512. 3 A r t h u r P. B e c k e r , L a n d and B u i l d i n g T a x e s : T h e i r E f f e c t  on E c o n o m i c D e v e l o p m e n t ( M a d i s o n : The U n i v e r s i t y o f W i s c o n s i n P r e s s , 1 9 6 9 ) , pp. 18 and 19. 4 S i n c e an a t t e m p t h a s been made t o e x c l u d e \"sunk c o s t s \" and c o s t s t h a t w o u l d be i n c u r r e d r e g a r d l e s s o f t h e d e c i s i o n t o d e v e l o p , e x p e n d i t u r e s i n c u r r e d t o a c q u i r e and h o l d l a n d have o n l y b een c o n -s i d e r e d t o t h e e x t e n t t h a t i t a f f e c t e d c u r r e n t e x p e n d i t u r e s o r t a x d e d u c t i o n s . C o n s e q u e n t l y e s t i m a t e s were made o f t h e f o l l o w i n g : 1. t h e o u t s t a n d i n g p r i n c i p a l t o be r e p a i d upon s e l l i n g a p r o p e r t y 2. e l i g i b l e t a x d e d u c t i o n s w i t h r e s p e c t t o a) t h e o r i g i n a l a c q u i s i t i o n c o s t o f l a n d b) t h e sum o f l a n d h o l d i n g c o s t s ( i n c l u d i n g i n t e r e s t payments and p r o p e r t y tax): n o t p r e v i o u s l y d e-d u c t e d . 5 I n 1971, 813 s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s t a r t s were NHA f i n a n c e d and 800 were f i n a n c e d c o n v e n t i o n a l l y i n t h e O n t a r i o p o r t i o n o f t h e O t t a w a - H u l l CMA (1966 b o u n d a r i e s ) . T h e r e f o r e , b e c a u s e NHA f i n a n c e d new s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s e s r e p r e s e n t e d a l a r g e s h a r e o f t h e m a r k e t and b e c a u s e t h e a v e r a g e t o t a l c o s t o f a new s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g ($31015) w i t h NHA a p p r o v e d f i n a n c i n g was a p p r o x i m a t e l y e q u a l t o t h e a n n u a l a v e r a g e s e l l i n g p r i c e ($31076) o f new s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s ( h a v i n g NHA a p p r o v e d l o a n s and s o l d by b u i l d e r s ) , t h e a v e r a g e t o t a l c o s t f i g u r e w o u l d a p p e a r t o p r o v i d e an a d e q u a t e e s t i m a t e o f t h e m a r k e t v a l u e o f new h o u s e s . ^ U n p u b l i s h e d d a t a , p r o v i d e d by t h e Canada M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n , i n d i c a t e s t h a t t h e r e were 349 l o a n s a p p r o v e d f o r s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s i n t h e f i r s t h a l f o f 1971 and 343 l o a n s a p p r o v e d i n t h e s e c o n d h a l f . 7 The new house p r i c e i n d e x was p r o v i d e d i n t h e p u b l i c a t i o n : S t a t i s t i c s C a nada, C o n s t r u c t i o n P r i c e S t a t i s t i c s , C a t a l o g u e No. 62-007 (Ottawa: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, M o n t h l y ) . S i n c e t h e i n d e x i s b a s e d on t h e p r i c e movements i n a l l g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d d w e l l i n g s , and n o t e x c l u s i v e l y s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s , i t w o u l d have t h e d e s i r a b l e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f r e f l e c t i n g p r i c e movements i n a l l t h e d w e l l i n g u n i t t y p e s p r o v i d e d f o r i n t h e m o d e l s . See A p p e n d i x I I \" E x t e n d i n g t h e New House P r i c e I n d e x \" f o r a b r i e f r e v i e w o f t h e method u s e d t o e s t i m a t e movements i n new house p r i c e s f o r 1968 and 1969. 161 9 See A p p e n d i x I I I \" A v e r a g e L o t S i z e , L o t s P e r G r o s s A c r e and Road F r o n t a g e P e r L o t \" f o r a r e v i e w o f t h e method u s e d t o e s t i m a t e t h e c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s o f t h e t y p i c a l l o t and s u b d i v i s i o n . \"^The t y p e s o f e x p e n d i t u r e s f o r h a r d s e r v i c e s i n c l u d e t h e f o l l o w i n g p r e p a r a t i o n s and i n s t a l l a t i o n s : 1. s a n i t a r y s ewers 6. r o a d s 2. s t o r m sewers 7. c u r b s and 3. w a t e r m a i n s 8. h y d r o 4. l a t e r a l s 9. s o d d i n g 5. s i d e w a l k s See A p p e n d i x IV \" E s t i m a t e o f S e r v i c i n g C o s t s \" f o r a r e v i e w o f t h e method and a s s u m p t i o n s u s e d t o e s t i m a t e t h e a n n u a l and m o n t h l y v a l u e s o f t h e c o s t o f i n s t a l l h a r d s e r v i c e s , r o u g h g r a d i n g , c o n s u l t a n t f e e s and o v e r h e a d . 12 D a t a f o r b u i l d i n g c o s t s have b e e n p r o v i d e d b y t h e S t a t i s t i c -a l S e r v i c e s D i v i s i o n o f t h e Canada M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a -t i o n . 13 S t a t i s t i c s Canada, C a n a d i a n S t a t i s t i c a l Review, C a t a l o g u e No. 11-003E (Ottawa: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, M o n t h l y ) . 14 See A p p e n d i x V \" C o s t o f Raw L a n d \" f o r a r e v i e w o f t h e r a t i o n a l e o f t h e e s t i m a t e s p e r t a i n i n g t o t h e t i m i n g and a c q u i s i -t i o n p r i c e o f raw l a n d . \" ^ I t has b e e n n o t e d t h a t raw l a n d a c q u i s i t i o n s a r e h e a v i l y l e v e r a g e d a t 40 t o 6 0 p e r c e n t o f t h e c o s t . See S p u r r , L a n d and  U r b a n D e v e l o p m e n t , p. 240. \" ^ C e n t r a l M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n , C a n a d i a n H o u s i n g  S t a t i s t i c s (Ottawa: C e n t r a l M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n , 1 9 6 2 ) , p. 47. 17 See A p p e n d i x VI \" P r o p e r t y T a x e s \" f o r an e x p l a n a t i o n o f how p r o p e r t y t a x e s were e s t i m a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e p r e v a i l i n g m i l l r a t e s and t h e a s s e s s m e n t p r a c t i c e s o f t h e T o w n s h i p s o f G l o u c e s t e r and Nepean. 18 James C. Van H o r n e , C e c i l D i p c h a n d , and J . R o b e r t H a n r a han, F u n d a m e n t a l s o f F i n a n c i a l Management (3d e d . ; S c a r b o r o u g h : P r e n -t i c e H a l l o f Canada, 1 9 7 7 ) , p. 357. 19 Eugene F. B r i g h a m , F i n a n c i a l Management: T h e o r y and P r a c -t i c e ( H i n s d a l e , I l l i n o i s : The D r y d e n P r e s s , 1 9 7 7 ) , p. 608. 20 S t a t i s t i c s Canada, C o r p o r a t i o n F i n a n c i a l S t a t i s t i c s , C a t a l o g u e No. 61-207 (Ottawa: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, A n n u a l ) . 21 A l t h o u g h t h e a v a i l a b i l i t y o f S t a t i s t i c s Canada d a t a w o u l d a p p e a r a d e q u a t e f o r d e t e r m i n i n g t h e p e r i o d i c r e l a t i v e m a g n i t u d e o f d i f f e r e n t s o u r c e s o f c a p i t a l , e s t i m a t e s were n e c e s s a r y where d a t a was a b s e n t o r a g g r e g a t e d d i f f e r e n t l y . See A p p e n d i x V I I 162 \" E s t i m a t e s o f P r o p o r t i o n s o f C a p i t a l From V a r i o u s S o u r c e s \" f o r an e x p l a n a t i o n o f how t h e e s t i m a t e s were made. 22 The same t i m i n g scheme has b een a p p l i e d as \"used by P e t e r S p u r r i n L a n d and U r b a n D e v e l o p m e n t , p. 52. 23 C a n a d i a n i n t e r i m l o a n s have i n t e r e s t r a t e s a t 1% t o 2% p e r c e n t above t h e p r i m e bank r a t e . Commerce 309 L e c t u r e s , U n i v e r s i t y o f B r i t i s h C o l u m b i a , O c t o b e r , 1975. 24 J . W. B e e c h has n o t e d t h a t f l o t a t i o n c o s t s f o r b o n d s , p r e -f e r r e d and common s t o c k s i n c l u d e a l l t h e c o s t s a s s o c i a t e d w i t h m a r k e t i n g s e c u r i t i e s . A l t h o u g h t h e t o t a l f l o t a t i o n c o s t s w o u l d v a r y w i t h r e s p e c t t o a bond o r t y p e o f s t o c k , t h e d o l l a r v a l u e o f t h e i s s u e , t h e number o f s h a r e s as w e l l as t h e p e r c e i v e d l e v e l o f r i s k , B e e c h h a s n o t e d t h a t t h e t o t a l f e e s and e x p e n d i t u r e s may v a r y f r o m f i v e t o e i g h t p e r c e n t o f t h e v a l u e o f t h e i s s u e . See h i s c h a p t e r on \" P u b l i c F i n a n c i n g f o r S m a l l Companies\" i n R e a d i n g s  i n C a n a d i a n B u s i n e s s F i n a n c e , e d . Samuel M a r t i n ( T o r o n t o : McGraw-H i l l Co. o f Canada L t d . , 1 9 6 9 ) , p. 133. 25 S t a t i s t i c s Canada, C o r p o r a t i o n T a x a t i o n S t a t i s t i c s , C a t a l o g u e No. 61-208 (Ottawa: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, A n n u a l ) ; and R o b i n W. Broadway and H a r r y M. K i t c h e n , C a n a d i a n Tax P o l i c y , C a n a d i a n Tax P a p e r No. 6 3 ( T o r o n t o : C a n a d i a n Tax F o u n d a t i o n , May, 1 9 8 0 ) , p. 114. 2 ^  The t o t a l c o s t s f o r s u b d i v i d i n g l a n d i n c l u d e s t h e p r o v i s i o n .of h a r d s e r v i c e s , r o u g h g r a d i n g , c o n s u l t a n t f e e s , o v e r h e a d , and d e v e l o p m e n t l e v i e s . A l t h o u g h t h e Income Tax A c t p r e s c r i b e s w h i c h e x p e n d i t u r e s made and c o s t s i m p u t e d may be d e d u c t e d and when, no a t t e m p t has b een made t o d i s t i n g u i s h between o p e r a t i n g and c a p i t a l c o s t s as w e l l as w h i c h d e d u c t i o n s may be made i n t h e p r e v a i l i n g t a x p e r i o d o r upon t h e s u b s e q u e n t g a i n i n g o f income. T h e r e f o r e , t h e a t t e m p t t o e s t i m a t e t h e m a g n i t u d e o f e l i g i b l e t a x d e d u c t i o n s by means o f an e s t i m a t e o f t h e d e v e l o p m e n t c o s t s i n c u r r e d and t o a p p r o x i m a t e t h e t i m i n g o f t h e d e d u c t i o n s by a s s u m i n g a s i n g l e d e d u c t i o n p e r i o d ( i . e . a t t h e t i m e o f t h e p r o c e e d s o f s a l e ) , w o u l d f a i l t o model r e a l i t y i n i t s c o m p l e x i t y . However, i n s p i t e o f t h e s e s h o r t c o m i n g s , t h e p r o c e d u r e u s e d w o u l d a p p e a r t o p r o v i d e an a d e q u a t e a p p r o x i m a t i o n o f t h e m a g n i t u d e and t i m i n g o f t h e e l i g i b l e d e d u c t i o n s . 27 P r i o r t o May 1974 d e d u c t i o n s o f i n t e r e s t payments and \u2022\".prop-e r t y t a x e s i n c u r r e d i n m a i n t a i n i n g an i n v e n t o r y o f l a n d were p e r m i t t e d i n d e t e r m i n i n g p e r i o d i c income t a x e s . However, as o f May 1, 1974 d e d u c t i o n s o f t h i s t y p e were o n l y p e r m i t t e d when t h e l a n d was u s e d as a f a c t o r i n p r o d u c t i o n . 2 8 J . L a n g h o u t , A n a l y s i s and I n t e r p r e t a t i o n o f C a n a d i a n F i n a n c i a l S t a t e m e n t s ( S t . J o h n ' s , N e w f o u n d l a n d : U n i v e r s i t y P r e s s o f Canada, n . d . ) , p. 188. 2 9 James C. Van H o m e , e t a l . F u n d a m e n t a l s o f F i n a n c i a l Management, pp. 359 and 360. 163 3 0 I b i d . , pp. 351-356. 31 A l t h o u g h t h e c o s t o f p r e f e r r e d s t o c k o u g h t t o be c a l c u l a t e d as t h e r a t i o o f t h e s t a t e d a n n u a l d i v i d e n d and t h e n e t p r o c e e d s o f t h e p r e f e r r e d s t o c k i s s u e , t h e r e does n o t a p p e a r t o be an a v a i l a b l e m easure o f e i t h e r o v e r t h e i n v e s t m e n t p e r i o d . However, s i n c e t h e c o s t o f p r e f e r r e d s t o c k w o u l d be l e s s t h a n t h e c o s t a p p l i c a b l e t o o t h e r s o u r c e s o f e q u i t y ( l o w e r r i s k l e v e l ) , and b e c a u s e p r e f e r r e d s t o c k s r e p r e s e n t a r e l a t i v e l y s m a l l c o n t r i b u t i o n t o t h e t o t a l f i n a n c i n g p a c k a g e , t h e c o s t o f p r e f e r r e d s t o c k has b een a p p r o x i -mated by t h e c o s t o f common s t o c k e q u i t y . 32 Van H o m e e t a l . F u n d a m e n t a l s o f F i n a n c i a l Management, p. 353. 3 3 I b i d . , p. 598. 34 I b i d . , p. 602. 35 B a s i l A. Kalymon, P r o f i t s i n t h e R e a l E s t a t e I n d u s t r y ( V a n c o u v e r : F r a s e r I n s t i t u t e , 1 9 7 8 ) , p. 25. 3 6 Eugene F. B r i g h a m , F i n a n c i a l Management: T h e o r y and P r a c t i c e , p. 668. 37 I t was assumed t h a t h o u s i n g s t a r t s f i n a n c e d by t h e F e d e r a l Government u n d e r S e c t i o n s 15.1, 40, 43, 44, and 47 r e p r e s e n t e d h o u s i n g i n i t i a t e d by n o n - p r o f i t o r g a n i z a t i o n s . T h e r e f o r e , an a t t e m p t was made t o e x c l u d e t h e s e d e v e l o p m e n t s when t e s t i n g t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s m o d e l s . 3 8 Of t h e 19943 e s t i m a t e d g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s b etween J a n u a r y 196 8 and December 1971, 12.3 p e r c e n t was e s t i m a t e d u s i n g b u i l d i n g p e r m i t i n f o r m a t i o n and 4.6 p e r c e n t was e s t i m a t e d b a s e d on t h e i n c r e a s e i n t h e h o u s i n g s t o c k and t h e r e m a i n i n g p r o -p o r t i o n s were b a s e d on t h e Canada M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n d a t a . 39 A l t h o u g h b u i l d i n g p e r m i t d a t a was g e n e r a l l y a v a i l a b l e on a m o n t h l y b a s i s , f o r t h e p e r i o d J a n u a r y 1967 t o June 1970 i t was n e c e s s a r y t o e s t i m a t e t h e s t a r t s f o r M a r c h T o w n s h i p b a s e d on t h e a n n u a l o r s e m i - a n n u a l b u i l d i n g p e r m i t d a t a and t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f a n n u a l h o u s i n g s t a r t s , i n o t h e r a r e a s o f t h e O n t a r i o p a r t o f t h e s t u d y a r e a , o c c u r r i n g i n e a c h month. 40 The number o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s t h a t o c c u r r e d e a c h month between J a n u a r y 1968 and December 1971 i n t h e M u n i c i p a l -i t i e s o f T o u r a i n e and T e m p l e t o n E a s t has b een d e t e r m i n e d b a s e d on an e s t i m a t e o f t h e t o t a l number o f house c o m p l e t i o n s , t h e p r o p o r -t i o n o f t h e t o t a l number o f house c o m p l e t i o n s t h a t o c c u r r e d e a c h month, and t h e p e r i o d i c t i m e l a g r e l a t i o n s h i p between h o u s i n g s t a r t s and c o m p l e t i o n s . The t o t a l number o f h o u s e c o m p l e t i o n s t h a t o c c u r r e d d u r i n g t h e c e n s u s p e r i o d between 1966 and 1971, as w e l l as between 1971 and 1976, h a s b een b a s e d on t h e i n c r e a s e i n t h e h o u s i n g s t o c k as e s t i m a t e d by t h e i n c r e a s e i n t h e number o f o c c u p i e d d w e l l i n g u n i t s . The p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e t o t a l number o f 164 h ouse c o m p l e t i o n s t h a t o c c u r r e d e a c h month was b a s e d on t h e p u b l i s h e d m o n t h l y number o f c o m p l e t i o n s t h a t o c c u r r e d between 1972 and 1976, and on t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e t o t a l number o f house c o m p l e t i o n s t h a t o c c u r r e d e a c h month i n t h e Quebec p o r t i o n o f t h e s t u d y a r e a w h e r e . p u b l i s h e d d a t a was a v a i l a b l e . F u r t h e r -more, t h e p e r i o d i c t i m e l a g r e l a t i o n s h i p between h o u s i n g s t a r t s and c o m p l e t i o n s was a l s o b a s e d on t h e p u b l i s h e d m o n t h l y d a t a on s t a r t s and c o m p l e t i o n s f o r m u n i c i p a l i t i e s w i t h i n t h e Quebec p a r t o f t h e s t u d y a r e a and a s t o c k - f l o w model o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c -t i o n as d i s c u s s e d i n A p p e n d i x V I I I \" E s t i m a t e s o f C o m p l e t i o n s and U n i t s Under C o n s t r u c t i o n \" . 41 See Appendxx V I I I \" E s t i m a t e s o f C o m p l e t i o n s and U n i t s Under C o n s t r u c t i o n \" f o r an e x p l a n a t i o n o f how c o m p l e t i o n s and u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n were e s t i m a t e d f o r t h e added s u b u r b a n m u n i c i -p a l i t i e s and n o n - p r o f i t h o u s i n g . 42 D a t a on t h e number o f n e w l y c o m p l e t e d and u n o c c u p i e d d w e l l i n g s has been p r o v i d e d by t h e S t a t i s t i c a l S e r v i c e s D i v i s i o n o f t h e Canada H o u s i n g and M o r t g a g e C o r p o r a t i o n . 43 The June 1971 s t o c k o f o c c u p i e d d w e l l i n g s was o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e p u b l i c a t i o n : S t a t i s t i c s Canada, O c c u p i e d D w e l l i n g s , C a t a l o g u e No. 93-727 (Ottawa: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1 9 7 1 ) , and The June 1971 s t o c k o f v a c a n c i e s was o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e p u b l i c a t i o n : S t a t i s t i c s Canada, H o u s i n g , C a t a l o g u e No. 93-726 (Ottawa: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1 9 7 1 ) , and The a n n u a l number o f d e m o l i t i o n s by h o u s i n g t y p e was o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e B u i l d i n g P e r m i t D i v i s i o n o f S t a t i s t i c s Canada. 44 Whereas t h e c o n v e n t i o n a l m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e r e p r e s e n t s t h e a v e r a g e o f p r i m e c o n v e n t i o n a l m o r t g a g e i n t e r e s t r a t e s , t h e i n t e r e s t r a t e o f l o a n s u n d e r t h e N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t (NHA) has been a p p r o x i m a t e d by t h e a v e r a g e NHA i n t e r e s t r a t e on a p p r o v e d l e n d e r s home-ownership l o a n s . M o n t h l y i n t e r e s t r a t e s were r e -p o r t e d i n t h e p u b l i c a t i o n : Canada M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a -t i o n , C a n a d i a n H o u s i n g S t a t i s t i c s (Ottawa: Canada M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n , A n n u a l ) . 45 M o n t h l y d a t a on m o r t g a g e a p p r o v a l s f o r new h o u s i n g u n d e r c o n v e n t i o n a l t e r m s and t h e N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t were o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e p u b l i c a t i o n : S t a t i s t i c s Canada, C a n a d i a n S t a t i s t i c a l  Review, C a t a l o g u e No. 11-003E (Ottawa: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, M o n t h l y ) . 46 M o n t h l y d a t a on m o r t g a g e l o a n s f i n a n c e d by t h e F e d e r a l Government has been p r o v i d e d by t h e S t a t i s t i c a l S e r v i c e s D i v i s i o n o f t h e Canada M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n . 47 Q u a r t e r l y v a l u e s o f t h e g r o s s n a t i o n a l e x p e n d i t u r e de-f l a t o r were p r o v i d e d i n t h e p u b l i c a t i o n : S t a t i s t i c s Canada, N a t i o n a l Income and E x p e n d i t u r e A c c o u n t s , C a t a l o g u e s No. 13-001 Q u a r t e r l y and No. 13-533 O c c a s i o n a l (Ottawa: S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a ) . 165 48 L a b o u r Canada, S t r i k e s a n d L o c k o u t s i n Canada, C a t a l o g u e No. 331-89STR (Ottawa: L a b o u r Canada, A n n u a l ) . 49 See A p p e n d i x IX \" E s t i m a t e s o f t h e Q u a n t i t y o f Employment\" f o r an e x p l a n a t i o n o f how e s t i m a t e s were made o f t h e p r e v a i l i n g number o f e m p l o y e e s i n e a c h s e c t o r o f t h e l o c a l economy. 5 0 Unemployment r a t e s f o r t h e O t t a w a - H u l l M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a were o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e D e p a r t m e n t o f Employment and I m m i g r a t i o n . 5 1 A l t h o u g h d a t a on income was o b t a i n e d d i r e c t l y f r o m t h e S t a t i s t i c s S e c t i o n o f Revenue Canada, o r f r o m t h e i r p u b l i c a t i o n T a x a t i o n S t a t i s t i c s , i t was n e c e s s a r y t o e s t i m a t e t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e t o t a l income i n t h e Quebec p o r t i o n o f t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a t h a t was d i s p o s a b l e income. The d i s p o s a b l e income f o r M e t r o p o l i t a n H u l l was e s t i m a t e d by m u l t i p l y i n g t h e r e c o r d e d t o t a l income by t h e r a t i o o f d i s p o s a b l e income t o t o t a l p e r s o n a l income f o r t h e P r o v i n c e o f Quebec. P r o v i n c i a l d a t a on income and t a x e s was o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e p u b l i c a t i o n : S t a t i s t i c s Canada, N a t i o n a l  Income and E x p e n d i t u r e A c c o u n t s , C a t a l o g u e No. 13-531 O c c a s i o n a l and No. 13-210 A n n u a l (Ottawa: S t a t i s t i c s C a n a d a ) . 52 S t a t i s t i c s Canada, C a n a d i a n S t a t i s t i c a l Review. 53 D a t a on t e m p e r a t u r e s f o r t h e Ottawa I n t e r n a t i o n a l A i r p o r t were o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e p u b l i c a t i o n : E n v i r o n m e n t Canada, M o n t h l y  R e c o r d : M e t e o r o l o g i c a l O b s e r v a t i o n s (Downsview, O n t a r i o : E n v i r o n m e n t Canada, M o n t h l y ) . APPENDIX I I EXTENDING THE NEW HOUSE PRICE INDEX An a t t e m p t was made t o measure t h e r a t e o f i n c r e a s e i n new house p r i c e s f o r t h e 1 9 6 8 - 1 9 6 9 p e r i o d by e s t i m a t i n g t h e m o n t h l y a v e r a g e s e l l i n g p r i c e r e l a t i v e t o t h e q u a n t i t y o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e p r o v i d e d . The t r a n s a c t i o n s c o n s i d e r e d were a l l s a l e s o f s i n g l e d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s , between a b u i l d e r ( d e v e l o p e r ) and a consumer, w i t h i n a s e l e c t e d g e o g r a p h i c a r e a , and r e c o r d e d i n t h e TEELA S u r v e y . The: r e l a t i v e q u a n t i t y o f h o u s i n g s e r v i c e s p r o v i d e d by e a c h p r o p e r t y was c o n s i d e r e d a d e q u a t e l y a c c o u n t e d f o r by m a i n -t a i n i n g a s i n g l e h o u s i n g u n i t t y p e , t h e same a s s e s s m e n t scheme t h r o u g h o u t t h e sample p e r i o d , and a g e o g r a p h i c a r e a h a v i n g s i m i l a r p r o p e r t y l o c a t i o n c h a r a c t e r i s t i c s . The sample g e o g r a p h i c a r e a was s e l e c t e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e Census T r a c t t h a t had t h e l a r g e s t i n c r e a s e i n s i n g l e f a m i l y d w e l l i n g s between 1 9 6 6 and 1 9 7 1 . On t h e b a s i s o f t h i s c r i t e r i a , C e n s us T r a c t 8 3 ( 1 9 6 6 Census) was s e l e c t e d and 7 4 2 t r a n s a c t i o n s were r e c o r d e d f o r t h e p e r i o d J u l y 1 9 6 7 t o December 1 9 7 0 . However, i n an a t t e m p t t o m i n i m i z e t h e v a r i a n c e a t t r i b u t e d t o u n u s u a l s i z e d p r o p e r t i e s w i t h i n a s m a l l sample, o n l y t h o s e p r o p e r t i e s w i t h assessments- between $ 2 9 0 0 and $ 4 4 9 9 were c o n s i d e r e d . T h i s a d j u s t m e n t d e l e t e d a l l a s s e s s m e n t c a t e g o r i e s ( d e t e r m i n e d : b y t h e number o f h u n d r e d s o f a s s e s s e d d o l l a r s ) w i t h s a m p l e s o f f e w e r t h a n 20 t r a n s a c t i o n s . The r e m a i n i n g 6 5 7 t r a n s a c t i o n s were u s e d t o p r o v i d e a m o n t h l y 1 6 6 167 i n d e x o f h o u s e p r i c e s . I n o r d e r t o e x t e n d t h e S t a t i s t i c s Canada New House P r i c e I n d e x s e r i e s , t h e a v e r a g e m o n t h l y i n d e x f o r 1970 f o r b o t h p r i c e s e r i e s were e q u a t e d and u s e d t o a d j u s t t h e a u t h o r s i n d e x t o a 1970 b a s e o f 94.7, as r e c o r d e d i n t h e p u b l i s h e d s e r i e s . One f u r t h e r m o d i f i c a t i o n was made t o smooth t h e a u t h o r ' s p r i c e s e r i e s by u s i n g a m o v i n g c e n t e r e d a v e r a g e o v e r t h r e e month p e r i o d s . APPENDIX I I I AVERAGE LOT S I Z E , LOTS PER GROSS ACRE AND ROAD FRONTAGE PER LOT I n t r o d u c t i o n To d e t e r m i n e t h e c o s t o f s e r v i c i n g a r e s i d e n t i a l l o t c o n -s i s t e n t w i t h t h e 1971 a v e r a g e .NHA f i n a n c e d s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s e and row h o u s e i n t h e O n t a r i o p o r t i o n o f t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a , e s t i m a t e s have been made o f t h e e x t e n t o f r o a d and s e r v i c e d l a n d p e r l o t p r o v i d e d by a d e v e l o p e r . A c c o r d i n g l y , an a t t e m p t was made t o e s t i m a t e t h e a v e r a g e l o t s i z e , l o t s p e r n e t r e s i d e n t i a l a c r e , and t h e r o a d f o o t a g e r e q u i r e d . E s t i m a t e s were b a s e d on 1971 ap-p r o v e d s u b d i v i s i o n s w i t h i n t h e t h r e e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s i n t h e O n t a r i o p o r t i o n o f t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a t h a t e x p e r i e n c e d most o f t h e new low d e n s i t y r e s i d e n t i a l g r o w t h d u r i n g t h e s t u d y p e r i o d and r e p r e -s e n t e d t h e p r i m a r y l o c a t i o n o f NHA a p p r o v e d l o a n s f o r g r o u n d o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g i n 19 71 ( i . e . t h e C i t y o f O t tawa, and t h e Town-s h i p s o f G l o u c e s t e r and N e p e a n ) . S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d Houses A v e r a g e L o t S i z e . The a v e r a g e T o t s i z e f o r a s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h ouse w i t h an NHA a p p r o v e d l o a n i n 1971 has b e e n e s t i m a t e d t o be 57 f e e t by 100 f e e t . The d e p t h has b e en e s t i m a t e d t o be 100 f e e t b a s e d on t h e o b s e r v a t i o n t h a t t h i s was t h e most f r e q u e n t d i m e n -s i o n and b e c a u s e t h i s v a l u e r e p r e s e n t e d t h e minimum z o n i n g b y - l a w r e q u i r e m e n t . The f r o n t a g e h a s been e s t i m a t e d t o be 57 f e e t b a s e d 168 169 on t h e t y p i c a l l o t f r o n t a g e s o f s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s and t h e d i s t r i b u t i o n o f new s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s w i t h NHA a p -p r o v e d l o a n s among t h e t h r e e m u n i c i p a l i t i e s sampled.\"*\" E x t e n t o f Road P e r N e t . I n o r d e r t o d e t e r m i n e t h e e x t e n t o f r o a d R e s i d e n t i a l A c r e r e q u i r e d t o be p r o v i d e d by a d e v e l o p e r p e r n e t r e s i d e n t i a l a c r e , an a t t e m p t has been made t o d e t e r m i n e t h e number o f r o a d f e e t p e r a c r e o f l a n d d e v e l o p e d , t h e number o f n e t r e s i d e n t i a l a c r e s p e r a c r e o f l a n d d e v e l o p e d , and t h e number o f l o t s p e r n e t r e s i -d e n t i a l a c r e . A d e v e l o p e r i n O n t a r i o w o u l d be r e q u i r e d t o d e d i -c a t e 5 p e r c e n t o f t h e g r o s s a r e a o f t h e s u b d i v i s i o n f o r p a r k l a n d , and a l t h o u g h t h e d e v e l o p e r may be r e q u i r e d t o r e s e r v e l a n d f o r s c h o o l p u r p o s e s , he w o u l d be u n d e r no o b l i g a t i o n t o s e l l t h e l a n d a t l e s s t h a n m a r k e t v a l u e . T h e r e f o r e , i n t h i s s t u d y t h e d e v e l o p -ed l a n d c o n s i d e r e d w o u l d be t h e l a n d f o r r o a d s , l o t s , and p a r k s . To d e t e r m i n e t h e e x t e n t o f r o a d r e q u i r e d p e r a c r e o f r e s i -d e n t i a l l o t s and p a r k l a n d , an a t t e m p t h a s b e e n made t o s e l e c t a n e i g h b o u r h o o d o f c o n t i g u o u s low d e n s i t y r e s i d e n t i a l d e v e l o p m e n t t o u s e t h e o b s e r v e d r o a d s t r u c t u r e , w i t h m i n o r m o d i f i c a t i o n s t o t h e o b s e r v e d l a n d u s e , t o e s t i m a t e t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p . A n e i g h b o u r -hood i n t h e T o w n s h i p o f G l o u c e s t e r was s e l e c t e d f o r a n a l y s i s on t h e b a s i s t h a t t h e T o w n s h i p e x p e r i e n c e d t h e l a r g e s t i n c r e a s e i n t h e number o f s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s d u r i n g t h e . s t u d y p e r i o d , t h e e x i s t i n g d e v e l o p m e n t was p r e d o m i n a n t l y o f s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s , t h e r o a d p a t t e r n was e a s i l y a s s i g n e d e x c l u s i v e l y t o t h e r e s i d e n t i a l d e v e l o p m e n t c o n s i d e r e d , and t h e age o f t h e d e v e l -opment ( l a t e 1960's and e a r l y 1 9 7 0 ' s ) . An a t t e m p t was a l s o made t o d e t e r m i n e w h i c h r o a d s were p r o v i d e d by t h e d e v e l o p e r . 170 The following estimates were made on the basis of the se-lected neighbourhood: 1. E x i s t i n g Situation a) Gross area = 409 acres b) Roads provided by developer (1) 60' road right-of-way 46334 feet (2) 66' road right-of-way 12348 feet (3) 86' road right-of-way 4354 feet c) Undeveloped blocks = 67.97 acres 2. Undeveloped Blocks a) Residential l o t s (1) 9.66 acres representing the area of land i n the unsubdivided acreage that i s served by the adjacent 4209 feet of road as observed. (2) 23.65 acres representing the area of land hypothetically subdivided into 180.7 l o t s (5700 square feet each) and requiring an i n t e r n a l road system of 5151 feet. b) Parkland (1) 20.45 acres representing 5% of the gross area (2) 6.38 acres representing the difference i n area between the 6 6 foot right-of-ways re-quired and the observed 60 foot r i g h t - o f -ways (3) .71 acres representing the difference i n area between the 66 foot right-of-ways required and the hypothetical 60 foot right-of-ways used to provide an i n t e r n a l road system to the 23.65 net r e s i d e n t i a l acres requiring an i n t e r n a l road system noted above c) Roads (1) 5151 feet of road with a 60 foot r i g h t - o f -way representing an i n t e r n a l road system of l o c a l streets to the 2 3.65 net r e s i d e n t i a l acres noted above Based on the above, i t would require 68,187 feet of road to serve 283.23 net r e s i d e n t i a l acres. Although the average l o t si z e has been assumed to be 57 feet by 100 feet, an additional 20 feet of l o t depth (as observed) has been provided along the major c o l l e c t o r road, thereby reducing the e f f e c t i v e net r e s i d e n t i a l 171 a c r e s t o 279.41 a c r e s . T h e r e f o r e , 68,187 f e e t o f r o a d w o u l d s e r v e 2,135 l o t s w i t h 31.94 l i n e a l f e e t o f r o a d p e r l o t , o r a p p r o x i m a t e l y 64 f e e t o f r o a d f r o n t a g e p e r l o t . Summary. The 19 71 a v e r a g e new s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s e , w i t h an NHA a p p r o v e d m o r t g a g e , i n t h e O n t a r i o p o r t i o n o f t h e O t t a w a - H u l l Met-r o p o l i t a n A r e a was assumed t o have been d e v e l o p e d a t 5.2 u n i t s p e r g r o s s r e s i d e n t i a l a c r e , w i t h an a v e r a g e l o t s i z e o f 5,700 s q u a r e f e e t . F u r t h e r m o r e , i t was assumed t h a t a d e v e l o p m e n t o f t h i s d e n s i t y w o u l d r e q u i r e 64 f e e t o f r o a d f r o n t a g e p e r l o t . Row H o u s i n g To d e t e r m i n e t h e l a n d and s e r v i c i n g r e q u i r e m e n t s p e r row d w e l l i n g u n i t , an a t t e m p t has been made t o s e l e c t a n e i g h b o u r h o o d o f c o n t i g u o u s row h o u s i n g d e v e l o p m e n t t o u s e t h e o b s e r v e d d e n s i t y and r o a d s t r u c t u r e , w i t h m i n o r m o d i f i c a t i o n s t o t h e o b s e r v e d l a n d u s e , t o e s t i m a t e t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p s . A n e i g h b o u r h o o d i n t h e Town-s h i p o f G l o u c e s t e r was s e l e c t e d f o r a n a l y s i s on t h e b a s i s t h a t t h e T o w n s h i p e x p e r i e n c e d most o f t h e row h o u s i n g d e v e l o p m e n t i n 1971 and a l a r g e s h a r e t h r o u g h o u t t h e s t u d y p e r i o d , t h e r e s i d e n t -i a l d e v e l o p m e n t c o n s i s t e d o f row d w e l l i n g s o n l y , t h e road, p a t t e r n was e a s i l y a s s i g n e d e x c l u s i v e l y t o t h e r e s i d e n t i a l d e v e l o p m e n t c o n s i d e r e d , and t h e age o f t h e d e v e l o p m e n t ( e a r l y 1 9 7 0 ' s ) . An a t t e m p t was a l s o made t o d e t e r m i n e w h i c h r o a d s were p r o v i d e d by t h e d e v e l o p e r . The f o l l o w i n g e s t i m a t e s were made on t h e b a s i s o f t h e s e -l e c t e d n e i g h b o u r h o o d : 172 1. E x i s t i n g S i t u a t i o n a) G r o s s a r e a = 54.6 a c r e s b) Roads p r o v i d e d b y d e v e l o p e r (1) ' \" ' ' i n t e r n a l r o a d s = 5940 f e e t (2) p e r i m e t e r r o a d s = 2200 f e e t c) N e t r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a ( h o u s i n g and i n t e r n a l r o a d s ) (1) t o t a l a r e a = 37.9 a c r e s (2) row h o u s i n g u n i t s = 568 (3) n e t r e s i d e n t i a l d e n s i t y = 15 u n i t s p e r a c r e d) U n d e v e l o p e d b l o c k s = 13.9 a c r e s 2. U n d e v e l o p e d B l o c k s a) R e s i d e n t i a l l o t s (1) p o t e n t i a l n e t r e s i d e n t i a l a r e a = 11.2 a c r e s (2) p o t e n t i a l row u n i t s a t 15 p e r a c r e = 168 b) P a r k l a n d (1) p a r k l a n d r e q u i r e m e n t ( a t 5%) = 2.7 a c r e s c) Roads (1) p o t e n t i a l r o a d s i n a) = 1755 f e e t I n summary, i t has b e e n assumed t h a t t h e 1971 a v e r a g e new row h o u s i n g u n i t , w i t h an NHA a p p r o v e d m o r t g a g e , i n t h e O n t a r i o p o r t i o n o f t h e O t t a w a - H u l l M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a was d e v e l o p e d a t 13.5 u n i t s p e r g r o s s r e s i d e n t i a l a c r e and r e q u i r e d 27 f e e t o f r o a d f r o n t a g e p e r u n i t . F o o t n o t e s \"''Based on CMHC d a t a , t h e t y p i c a l l o t f r o n t a g e s f o r s i n g l e -d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g i n new s u b d i v i s i o n s , i n 1971, a p p r o v e d f o r NHA m o r t g a g e s were 65 f e e t i n t h e T o w n s h i p o f Nepean, 55 f e e t i n t h e T o w n s h i p o f G l o u c e s t e r , and 50 f e e t i n t h e C i t y o f O t t a w a . F u r -t h e r m o r e , o f t h e 69 7 new s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d d w e l l i n g s f i n a n c e d u n d e r t h e N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t i n 1971, 181 were i n Nepean, 488 were i n G l o u c e s t e r , and 2 8 were i n Ottawa. APPENDIX IV ESTIMATE OF SERVICING COSTS A n n u a l E s t i m a t e s A p p r o a c h . The a n n u a l p r i c e p e r f r o n t f o o t o f r o a d f o r s e r v i c i n g ( i . e . r o u g h g r a d i n g , h a r d s e r v i c e s , c o n s u l t a n t f e e s , and o v e r -head) has b e e n b a s e d on t h e v a l u e s o b t a i n e d f r o m t h e Canada H o u s i n g and M o r t g a g e C o r p o r a t i o n f o r t h e p e r i o d 1974 t o 1979 and an e s t i m a t e f o r t h e p e r i o d 1968 t o 1973 as shown i n T a b l e A-2. The e s t i m a t e f o r t h e l a t t e r p e r i o d has b e e n b a s e d on t h e p r i c e t o i n s t a l l h a r d s e r v i c e s and t h e a v e r a g e r a t i o o f s e r v i c i n g c o s t s t o h a r d s e r v i c e s . T h i s a p p r o a c h t o e s t i m a t e s e r v i c i n g c o s t s w o u l d a p p e a r t o be a p p r o p r i a t e s i n c e c o n s u l t a n t f e e s a r e o f t e n e x p r e s s e d as a c o n s t a n t p e r c e n t a g e o f t h e c o s t f o r h a r d s e r v i c e s and i t w o u l d a p p e a r r e a s o n a b l e , f o r c o n v e n i e n c e , t o assume r o u g h g r a d i n g c o s t s may be a p p r o x i m a t e d i n a s i m i l a r manner. O v e r h e a d c o s t s p e r u n i t o f p r o d u c t i o n \/ e x p e r i e n c e d by d e v e l o p e r s , w o u l d l i k e l y f l u c t u a t e i n t h e s h o r t - r u n w i t h c h a n g e s i n t h e l e v e l o f p r o d u c t i o n . However, as d i s c u s s e d below, i n v i e w o f a p p a r e n t b u s i n e s s p r a c t i c e s and t h e u s e o f o t h e r e x p l a n a t o r y v a r i a b l e s i n t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s model t h a t d e t e r m i n e f l u c t u a t i o n s i n t h e volume o f h o u s i n g s t a r t s , i t w o u l d a p p e a r a p p r o p r i a t e and p r a t i c a l t o e s t i m a t e o v e r h e a d as a c o n s t a n t p r o p o r t i o n o f t o t a l s e r v i c i n g costs.\"' -174 TABLE A-2 ESTIMATES OF THE SERVICING COSTS PER FRONT FOOT H a r d S e r v i c e s C o s t T o t a l C o s t P e r F r o n t F o o t P e r F r o n t F o o t o f Road o f Road 1980 \u2014 106.68 e 1979 93. 0^ 103.94 e 1978 88.5? 95.75 e 1977 82.07 91.55 e 1976 75.0? 84.90 e 1975 65.5\u00b0 76.35 e 1974 58. o r 74.67^ 1973 58.0\u00b0 66.71^ 1972 4 9 - 5 b 56.93^ 1971 47.0\u00b0 54.06J: 1970 44.0\u00b0 50.61J: 1969 44.86*: 1968 3 4 - 4 d 39.57^ 1967 31.0 35.66 a I n t e r v i e w w i t h A. F e e , a c o n s u l t a n t o f J . L. R i c h a r d s and A s s o c i a t e s L i m i t e d , O t tawa, M a r c h , 1979. D L e t t e r f r o m O l i v e r , M a n g i one, M c C a l l a and A s s o c i a t e s L i m i t e d C o n s u l t i n g E n g i n e e r s , O t tawa, A p r i l 3, 1979. J o s e p h Chung, L a n d and Low Income H o u s i n g , b a c k g r o u n d s t u d y f o r t h e Task F o r c e on Low Income H o u s i n g ( u n p u b l i s h e d p a p e r , Canada M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n , 1970), pp. 39 and 40. B a s e d on t h e a v e r a g e s e r v i c i n g c o s t s p e r i t e m e s t i m a t e d i n t h e 1967 and 196 8 s u b d i v i s i o n a g r e e m e n t s o f t h e C i t y o f Ottawa and t h e T o w n s h i p s o f G l o u c e s t e r and Nepean. e E s t i m a t e s were made f o r t h e T o w n s h i p s o f G l o u c e s t e r and Nepean by t h e A p p r a i s a l D e p a r t m e n t o f t h e Canada M o r t g a g e and H o u s i n g C o r p o r a t i o n . \"^Estimates were made on t h e b a s i s o f t h e p r o d u c t o f t h e p r e v a i l i n g h a r d s e r v i c e s c o s t and t h e a v e r a g e r a t i o o f t o t a l s e r v i c i n g c o s t s t o h a r d s e r v i c e s , where t h e r a t i o was e s t i m a t e d u s i n g a v a i l a b l e d a t a f r o m 1974 t o 1979, n o t e d above. 176 O v e r h e a d . I t h a s b een a r g u e d t h a t companies with, e n g i n e e r i n g and c o n s t r u c t i o n d e p a r t m e n t s w h i c h r e g u l a r l y engage i n new c o n s t r u c -t i o n w o u l d l i k e l y e x p e r i e n c e r i s i n g o v e r h e a d e x p e n d i t u r e s w i t h 2 any s i g n i f i c a n t s e l f - c o n s t r u c t i o n a c t i v i t y . However, o v e r h e a d may i n c l u d e c o s t s w h i c h w o u l d be v a r i a b l e o r f i x e d i n t h e s h o r t -r u n . Whereas t o t a l v a r i a b l e - o v e r h e a d c o s t s f l u c t u a t e i n p r o -p o r t i o n t o c h a n g e s i n a c t i v i t y l e v e l s , by d e f i n i t i o n , t o t a l f i x e d -3 o v e r h e a d c o s t s do n o t change o v e r w i d e r a n g e s o f a c t i v i t y . T h e r e f o r e , t h e h i g h e r t h e l e v e l o f a c t i v i t y , t o t a l o v e r h e a d c o s t s w o u l d be l o w e r p e r u n i t o f p r o d u c t i o n . A c o s t i n g d i f f i c u l -t y a r i s e s h e r e , b e c a u s e management d e s i r e s a r e p r e s e n t a t i v e s t a n d a r d c o s t f o r a p r o d u c t d e s p i t e month-to-month changes i n 4 p r o d u c t i o n v o l u m e . To a v o i d c a p r i c i o u s c h a n g e s i n u n i t c o s t s i t has b een a r g u e d t h a t t o t a l f i x e d o v e r h e a d c o s t s o u g h t t o be a l l o c a t e d t o t h e u n i t s o f p r o d u c t i o n b a s e d on a n o r m a l l e v e l o f a c t i v i t y t h a t w i l l s a t i s f y a v e r a g e consumer demand o v e r a s p a n o f t i m e ( o f t e n . 5 f i v e y e a r s ) t h a t i n c l u d e s s e a s o n a l , c y c l i c a l and t r e n d f a c t o r s . I t has a l s o b een n o t e d t h a t \" n o rmal a c t i v i t y makes more s e n s e as an o v e r h e a d b a s e when t h e r e a r e w ide s w i n g s i n b u s i n e s s volume t h r o u g h t h e y e a r s , e v e n t h o u g h t h e y e a r l y o v e r - and u n d e r a p p l i e d o v e r h e a d w o u l d n o t be c a r r i e d f o r w a r d i n t h e b a l a n c e s h e e t f r o m y e a r t o y e a r \" . The u n i f o r m r a t e f o r a p p l y i n g f i x e d o v e r h e a d , w h i c h e l i m i n a t e s v a r i a t i o n s i n u n i t c o s t s a t t r i b u t e d t o f l u c t u a -t i o n s i n p r o d u c t i o n v o l u m e s , p r o v i d e s f o r t h e r e c o v e r y o f f i x e d c o s t s o v e r t h e l o n g - r u n . T h e r e f o r e , c ompanies e x p e c t t h a t o v e r -a p p l i c a t i o n i n some y e a r s w o u l d be o f f s e t by u n d e r a p p l i c a t i o n i n o t h e r y e a r s . A l t h o u g h c ompanies may f i n d t h e above method 'appro-p r i a t e i n r u n n i n g a b u s i n e s s , f o r income t a x p u r p o s e s t h e y e a r 177 would be deemed t o be t h e t i m e span f o r t h e a l l o c a t i o n o f under-o r o v e r a p p l i e d o v e rhead, and f o r t h i s r e a s o n i t would be n e c e s s a r y t o e s t i m a t e a c t u a l overhead e x p e n d i t u r e s p e r y e a r t o det e r m i n e a c t u a l income t a x d e d u c t i o n s . A l t h o u g h a d e v e l o p e r would r e q u i r e an e s t i m a t e o f overhead e x p e n d i t u r e s as w e l l as t h e p r e v a i l i n g under- o r o v e r a p p l i e d o v e r -head t o d e t e r m i n e e x p e c t e d p r o f i t s , t h e p o t e n t i a l p r o f i t v a r i a b l e has been d e t e r m i n e d u s i n g a s i n g l e e s t i m a t e f o r overhead f o r c o s t v a l u a t i o n and income t a x d e d u c t i o n p u r p o s e s . T h i s s i m p l i f i c a t i o n may r e s u l t i n e r r o r s when e s t i m a t i n g income t a x e s ; however, i n v i e w o f ap p a r e n t b u s i n e s s p r a c t i c e s i t has been assumed t h a t average overhead c o s t s p e r u n i t may b e s t be ap p r o x i m a t e d by t h e c o s t s used i n i n v e s t m e n t d e c i s i o n making. F u r t h e r m o r e , i t has been assumed t h a t , a l t h o u g h t h e p o t e n t i a l p r o f i t v a r i a b l e may not f u l l y i n d i c a t e p r e v a i l i n g e x p e c t e d p r o f i t s , changes i n t h e r e m a i n -i n g d e t e r m i n i n g v a r i a b l e s i n t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s e q u a t i o n would i n d i c a t e changes i n e x p e c t e d p r o f i t s a t t r i b u t e d t o changes i n t h e t i m i n g o f cash f l o w s and i n t h e volume o f p r o d u c t i o n . 178 F o o t n o t e s x H o r n g r e n n o t e s two common s i m p l i f i c a t i o n s a r e w i d e l y u s e d i n t h e d e t e r m i n a t i o n o f c o s t f u n c t i o n s . F i r s t , a common assump-t i o n i s t h a t c o s t b e h a v i o u r c a n be s u f f i c i e n t l y e x p l a i n e d by one i n d e p e n d e n t v a r i a b l e . S e c o n d , l i n e a r a p p r o x i m a t i o n s t o c o s t f u n c t i o n s a r e 'good enough' e v e n t h o u g h n o n l i n e a r b e h a v i o u r i s (may be) more l i k e l y . H o r n g r e n n o t e s t h a t t h e d e t e r m i n i n g v a r i a b l e s e l e c t e d s h o u l d r e p r e s e n t one t h a t w o u l d be most l i k e l y t o have t h e most i n f l u e n c e on t o t a l c o s t i n c u r r e d . I n v i e w o f t h e n a t u r e o f t h e c o s t i t e m i n v o l v e d , i t w o u l d a p p e a r t h a t t h e c o s t o f i n s t a l l i n g h a r d s e r v i c e s may r e p r e s e n t t h e most i m p o r t a n t v a r i a b l e i n t h e t o t a l s e r v i c i n g c o s t . T h e r e f o r e , t h e c o s t t o i n s t a l l h a r d s e r v i c e s h a s b e e n s e l e c t e d t o e s t i m a t e t o t a l s e r v i c -i n g c o s t s , f o r t h o s e y e a r s when t h e v a l u e must be e s t i m a t e d , a l t h o u g h o v e r h e a d c o s t s may a c t u a l l y have c a u s e d f l u c u a t i o n s . ; a r o u n d t h e e s t i m a t e d v a l u e b a s e d on a s t a t i c r e l a t i o n s h i p ; i n C h a r l e s T. H o r n g r e n , C o s t A c c o u n t i n g : A M a n a g e r i a l E m p h a s i s , 4 t h e d . (Englewood C l i f f s , N . J . : P r e n t i c e - H a l l I n c . , 1 9 7 7 ) , p. 780. 2 W a l t e r B. M e i g s e t a l , I n t e r m e d i a t e A c c o u n t i n g , 3 r d C a n a d i a n A d d i t i o n ( T o r o n t o : M c G r a w - H i l l R y e r s o n L t d . , 1 9 8 0 ) , p. 440. 3 H o r n g r e n , pp. 261 and 263. 4 I b i d . , p. 283. 5 I b i d . , pp. 301-303. 6 I b i d . , p. 305. APPENDIX V COST OF RAW LAND To e s t i m a t e t h e c o s t i n c u r r e d f o r u n s e r v i c e d , o r raw l a n d , by d e v e l o p e r s on t h e O n t a r i o s i d e o f t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a , i t w o u l d be n e c e s s a r y t o know t h e t i m e when t h e l a n d was a c q u i r e d , t h e method o f a c q u i r i n g t h e p r o p e r t y ( i n c l u d i n g t h e t e r m s o f f i -n a n c i n g ) , as w e l l as t h e p r i c e p a i d . A l t h o u g h , i t was n o t p o s s i b l e t o d e t e r m i n e d e t a i l s o f l a n d t r a n s a c t i o n s , a s s o c i a t e d w i t h d e v e l o p m e n t o c c u r i n g a t v a r i o u s t i m e s t h r o u g h o u t t h e s t u d y p e r i o d , an a t t e m p t was made t o e s t i m a t e t h e p r i c e p a i d f o r l a n d a d j a c e n t t o d e v e l o p i n g a r e a s d u r i n g a p e r i o d when c o n s i d e r a b l e d e v e l o p e r l a n d a c q u i s i t i o n a c t i v i t y was e x p e r i e n c e d . I t has b een n o t e d t h a t between 1958 and 1965 m a j o r p o l i c y d e c i s i o n s and i m p l e m e n t a t i o n s by p u b l i c i n s t i t u t i o n s a p p e a r e d t o be c o - i n c i d e n t w i t h t h e l a n d a s s e m b l i e s o f m a j o r d e v e l o p m e n t firms.\"'\" Between 1958 and 1962, t h e N a t i o n a l C a p i t a l C o m m i s s i o n a c q u i r e d 65 s q u a r e m i l e s o f l a n d , i n t h e l o c a t i o n s most l i k e l y t o have b e e n s e l e c t e d f o r f u r t h e r s u b d i v i s i o n s , e f f e c t i v e l y s t e r i l i z -2 i n g t h e a r e a f r o m d e v e l o p m e n t f o r a G r e e n b e l t . W i t h i n t h e i n n e r p e r i m e t e r o f t h e G r e e n b e l t , t h e r e was d e v e l o p a b l e l a n d t o accommodate more t h a n f i f t e e n y e a r s o f u r b a n g r o w t h , and many s u b d i v i d e r s f o u n d a l t e r n a t i v e s i t e s c o n t i g u o u s w i t h t h e m a i n u r b a n 3 f r o n t and w i t h p i p e d s e r v i c e s . F o l l o w i n g t h e i m p l e m e n t a t i o n o f t h e G r e e n b e l t , t h e r e were:-a number o f government p l a n s p r o p o s i n g g r o w t h nodes b e y o n d t h e 179 180 p e r i m e t e r o f t h e G r e e n b e l t and commitments were made f o r t h e e x -t e n s i o n o f t h e e a s t - w e s t e x p r e s s w a y , t h e Queensway. S u b s t a n t i a l l a n d a c q u i s i t i o n s were made by t h e p r i v a t e s e c t o r and by 19 65 t h e m a j o r d e v e l o p m e n t f i r m s had a c q u i r e d a 20 y e a r s u p p l y o f . 4 l a n d . A l t h o u g h p r i c e s f o r l a n d w i t h i n t h e i n n e r p e r i m e t e r o f t h e G r e e n b e l t a r e n o t a v a i l a b l e , i t was n o t e d t h a t t h e G r e e n b e l t was a c q u i r e d a t a p p r o x i m a t e l y $1000 p e r a c r e w h i l e most o f . t h e l a n d b e y o n d t h e G r e e n b e l t was a c q u i r e d a t p r i c e s between $500 and $1800 an a c r e (some p r i c e s were above $3000 p e r a c r e ) I n t h i s s t u d y , t h e d a t e o f a c q u i s i t i o n o f raw l a n d i n t h e O n t a r i o s i d e o f t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a has b e e n assumed t o be 1960, t o r e f l e c t t h e i m p a c t o f t h e f o r m a t i o n o f t h e G r e e n b e l t (1958 - 1962). I t w o u l d be r e a s o n a b l e t o c o n c l u d e t h a t d u r i n g t h e \" l a n d boom\" p e r i o d m a j o r l a n d a s s e m b l i e s by t h e p r i v a t e s e c -t o r w o u l d be c o n c u r r e n t w i t h a h e i g h t e n e d i n t e r e s t i n t h e l i m i t e d l a n d w i t h i n t h e i n n e r p e r i m e t e r o f t h e G r e e n b e l t , and a n a r r o w i n g o f t h e p o t e n t i a l l o c a t i o n s o f new u r b a n nodes b e y o n d t h e p e r i -m e t e r o f t h e G r e e n b e l t b e c a u s e o f t h e l i m i t e d d i r e c t a c c e s s t o 6 t h e c e n t r a l u r b a n a r e a . A l t h o u g h t h e G r e e n b e l t l a n d s a t $1000 p e r a c r e were r e p o r t e d l y a c q u i r e d a t premium v a l u e s , s p e c u l a t i o n on lands:: n o t a f f e c t e d by e x p r o p r i a t i o n may have i n d u c e d p r i c e l e v e l s t o w a r d s t h e h i g h s i d e o f t h e r e p o r t e d p r i c e r a n g e o f t y p i c a l t r a n s a c t i o n s . I n v i e w o f t h e above, i t has been assumed t h a t t h e t y p i c a l a c q u i s i t i o n p r i c e may have been as h i g h as $1800 p e r a c r e . 1 8 1 F o o t n o t e s ''\"Alice Coleman, The P l a n n i n g C h a l l e n g e Of t h e Ottawa A r e a (Ottawa: Q u e e n 7 s P r i n t e r , 1 9 6 9 ) , pp. 4 4 - 6 0 . 2 I b i d . , p. 4 9 . 3 I b i d . , pp. 1 1 and 4 9 . 4 I b i d . , p. 6 0 . 5 P e t e r S p u r r , L a n d and U r b a n D e v e l o p m e n t ( T o r o n t o : James L o r i m e r and Company, 1 9 7 6 ) , pp. 8 8 and 8 9 . APPENDIX V I PROPERTY TAXES The p r o p e r t y t a x e s p a i d w h i l e h o l d i n g u n d e v e l o p e d l a n d i n t h e O n t a r i o p o r t i o n o f t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a , h as been e s t i m a t e d by t h e a v e r a g e t a x p a i d f o r l a n d h o l d i n g s i n G l o u c e s t e r and Nepean T o w n s h i p s . A l t h o u g h a s s e s s m e n t s on p r o p e r t i e s may o c c u r a t more t h a n one t i m e w i t h i n a y e a r d e p e n d i n g upon t h e e x t e n t o f im p r o v e m e n t s , an a t t e m p t h a s been made t o e s t i m a t e t h e a n n u a l p r o p e r t y t a x p a i d , i n e a c h T o w n s h i p , on t h e b a s i s o f t h e m i l l r a t e f o r r e s i d e n t i a l - f a r m a s s e s s m e n t and t h e a s s e s s e d v a l u e o f s e r v i c e d and raw l a n d . The m i l l r a t e h a s been e s t i m a t e d b y t h e a v e r a g e t a x r a i s e d p e r d o l l a r o f r e s i d e n t i a l - f a r m a s s e s s m e n t f o r e a c h T o w n s h i p . The a s s e s s e d v a l u e o f s e r v i c e d l a n d has been b a s e d on t h e r a t e a p p l i e d t o l o t s f o r s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s e s \u2014 $ 6 p e r f r o n t f o o t f o r G l o u c e s -t e r and $ 5 . 5 0 f o r Nepean. To d e t e r m i n e t h e a s s e s s e d v a l u e o f raw l a n d , an a t t e m p t has been made t o e s t i m a t e t h e a s s e s s e d v a l u e o f u n d e v e l o p e d l a n d i n l a r g e h o l d i n g s s l a t e d f o r u r b a n d e v e l o p m e n t . F o r t h e To w n s h i p o f G l o u c e s t e r , t h e a s s e s s e d v a l u e p e r a c r e o f \" v a c a n t f a r m \" and \" v a c a n t r e s i d e n t i a l \" l a n d was d e t e r m i n e d f o r a l l p r o p e r t i e s , o f 1 0 a c r e s o r more, d e s i g n a t e d f o r u r b a n d e v e l -opment i n t h e O r l e a n s Community O f f i c i a l P l a n . T h i r t y - f i v e p r o p e r t i e s were i d e n t i f i e d h a v i n g a combined a c r e a g e o f 1 8 4 2 . 0 9 5 a c r e s and h a v i n g an a v e r a g e a s s e s s e d v a l u e o f $ 8 4 . 4 9 p e r a c r e . 1 8 2 183 U n f o r t u n a t e l y c o l l e c t e d d a t a was n o t a v a i l a b l e f o r t h e T o w n s h i p o f Nepean, however, an e s t i m a t e o f t h e a s s e s s e d v a l u e o f u n -d e v e l o p e d l a n d has been b a s e d on t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e G l o u c e s t e r a s s e s s e d v a l u e p e r a c r e and t h e r a t i o o f t h e a s s e s s e d v a l u e o f l a n d p e r a c r e f o r Nepean t o t h e a s s e s s e d v a l u e o f l a n d p e r a c r e f o r G l o u c e s t e r . S i n c e t h e a s s e s s e d v a l u e f o r l a n d i n c r e a s e s when t h e l a n d has b e e n s u b d i v i d e d and s e r v i c e d , t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e a s s e s s e d v a l u e o f l a n d f o r Nepean and G l o u c e s t e r has b e en b a s e d on p u b l i s h e d d a t a f o r a y e a r when b o t h had l i t t l e u r b a n d e v e l o p m e n t and a p p r o x i m a t e l y a b o u t t h e same amount o f d e v e l o p e d l a n d p e r a c r e . B a s e d on 19 51 d a t a , w h i c h r e p r e s e n t e d t h e f i r s t y e a r t h a t G l o u c e s t e r a d o p t e d i t s a s s e s s m e n t s y s t e m , Nepean's \" l a n d \" a s s e s s m e n t was e s t i m a t e d t o be 75.66 p e r c e n t o f G l o u c e s t e r ' s a s s e s s e d v a l u e o f l a n d p e r acre.\"'\" I n v i e w o f t h e above, t h e a s s e s s e d v a l u e o f u n d e v e l o p e d l a n d s l a t e d f o r u r b a n d e v e l o p m e n t has b e e n e s t i m a t e d t o be $84.49 p e r a c r e f o r G l o u c e s t e r and $63.93 p e r a c r e f o r Nepean. F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e a s s e s s e d v a l u e o f s e r v i c e d l a n d has b een b a s e d on t h e r e p o r t e d v a l u e s p e r f r o n t f o o t f o r s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d h o u s e s , as w e l l a s o n t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t d e v e l o p e r s w o u l d be a b l e t o d e -v e l o p 5.2 l o t s p e r g r o s s a c r e and t h a t 6 4 f e e t o f r o a d f r o n t a g e w o u l d be r e q u i r e d p e r s e r v i c e d l o t . T h e r e f o r e , t h e p r o p e r t y t a x t o h o l d l a n d has b een b a s e d on t h e m i l l r a t e , t h e a s s e s s e d v a l u e o f s e r v i c e d a n d raw l a n d , as w e l l as t h e q u a n t i t y o f l a n d r e -q u i r e d p e r t y p e o f d w e l l i n g u n i t . 184 Footnotes The assessed value of serviced land per foot of frontage, i n the Townships of Gloucester and Nepean, was obtained from the Assessment Department of the Ontario Ministry of Revenue. The assessed value of unserviced land per acre i n the Township of Nepean r e l a t i v e to the Township of Gloucester was determined by comparing the sums of taxable and tax exempt land assessment divided by the t o t a l acreage for each municipality. The required data was reported i n the following publications: Department of Municipal A f f a i r s , 1951 Annual Report of Municipal S t a t i s t i c s (Toronto: Queen's Printer, 1952), pp. 11 and 61. and Department of Municipal A f f a i r s , Municipal Directory (Toronto: Queen's Prin t e r , 1960), p.6. APPENDIX V I I ESTIMATES OF PROPORTIONS OF CAPITAL FROM VARIOUS SOURCES Obj e c t i v e An a t t e m p t has been made t o e s t i m a t e t h e p r o p o r t i o n s .of c a p i t a l d e r i v e d f r o m d i f f e r e n t s o u r c e s on t h e b a s i s o f t h e book v a l u e s o f \" R e a l E s t a t e O p e r a t o r s and D e v e l o p e r s \" l i a b i l i t i e s p u b l i s h e d i n t h e S t a t i s t i c s Canada p u b l i c a t i o n C o r p o r a t i o n  F i n a n c i a l S t a t i s t i c s . S p e c i f i c a l l y e s t i m a t e s have been made o f t h e a n n u a l p r o p o r t i o n o f c a p i t a l d e r i v e d f r o m b u s i n e s s l o a n s , m o r t g a g e s , b o n d s , s t o c k s , and r e t a i n e d e a r n i n g s f o r t h e p e r i o d 1968 t o 1979. A l t h o u g h d a t a was n o t a v a i l a b l e f o r 1972, 1978 and 1979, t h e v a l u e s f o r 1972 have been e s t i m a t e d as t h e a v e r a g e o f t h e c a l c u l a t e d p r o p o r t i o n s f o r 1971 and 1973, w h i l e f t h e p r o p o r -t i o n s c a l c u l a t e d f o r 1977 have been u s e d t o e s t i m a t e t h e p r o p o r t i o n s o f c a p i t a l i n 1978 and 1979, B e c a u s e o f t h e r e l a t i v e s t a b i l i t y i n t h e p r o p o r t i o n s o f c a p i t a l a t t r i b u t e d t o v a r i o u s s o u r c e s , f r o m one y e a r t o t h e n e x t , t h e p r o p o r t i o n s o f c a p i t a l c a l c u l a t e d w o u l d a p p e a r t o be a d e q u a t e f o r e s t i m a t i n g a n n u a l v a l u e s when d a t a was n o t a v a i l a b l e as w e l l as f o r e s t i m a t i n g t h e v a l u e i n e a c h month. I n a d d i t i o n t o t h e d a t a p r o b l e m s n o t e d above, e s t i m a t e d were n e c e s s a r y p e r t a i n i n g t o d i f f e r e n t t y p e s o f d e b t . 185 186 B u s i n e s s L o a n s B u s i n e s s l o a n s have been d e f i n e d t o i n c l u d e t h o s e l i a b i l i t i e s c l a s s i f i e d by S t a t i s t i c s Canada as \"bank l o a n s \" , \" s h o r t - t e r m l o a n s \" , \" l o a n s due t o s h a r e h o l d e r s o r a f f i l i a t e s \" , \" l o n g - t e r m bank l o a n s \" , and \" o t h e r l o n g - t e r m d e b t \" . A f t e r 1970 t h e p r o p o r t i o n s o f c a p i t a l a t t r i b u t e d t o g e n e r a l l o a n s may be c a l c u l a t e d f r o m p u b l i s h e d d a t a . However, p r i o r t o 1970 t h e number o f d o l l a r s composed o f b u s i n e s s l o a n s has been e s t i m a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t o t a l l i a b i l i t i e s t h a t com-p r i s e d b u s i n e s s l o a n s , m o r t g a g e s and bond d e b t as w e l l as t h e p e r i o d i c amount o f t o t a l l i a b i l i t i e s , and t h e p e r i o d i c amount o f m o r t g a g e and bond d e b t . The p r o p o r t i o n o f l i a b i l i t i e s composed o f b u s i n e s s l o a n s , m o r t g a g e s and bond d e b t has been e s t i m a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e d a t a p r o v i d e d s i n c e 1970. S i n c e t h e a v e r a g e p r o p o r t i o n f o r t h e y e a r s 1970 t o 1977, was t h e same as t h e p r o -p o r t i o n c a l c u l a t e d f o r 1970 ( t h e y e a r i m m e d i a t e l y f o l l o w i n g t h e p e r i o d t o be e s t i m a t e d ) , t h e r a t i o o f b u s i n e s s l o a n s , m o r t g a g e s and bond d e b t t o l i a b i l i t i e s h as been e s t i m a t e d t o be 98.9 p e r -c e n t . T h e r e f o r e , b a s e d on t h e d e b t t o l i a b i l i t i e s r a t i o , t h e m a g n i t u d e o f b u s i n e s s l o a n s f o r 196 8 and 1969 have been e s t i m a t e d by c a l c u l a t i n g t h e t o t a l d e b t and s u b t r a c t i n g t h e amount o f m o r t g a g e and bond d e b t . M o r t g a g e D e b t M o r t g a g e d e b t f o r t h e p e r i o d s i n c e 197 0 may be computed f r o m p u b l i s h e d d a t a . However, f o r t h e 1968 and 1969, t h e number o f d o l l a r s composed o f m o r t g a g e d e b t has been assumed t o be p r o p o r t i o n a l t o \" n e t l o n g - t e r m d e b t \" , w h i c h i n c l u d e s \" l o n g - t e r m bank l o a n s \" , \" o t h e r l o n g - t e r m d e b t \" , bonds ( i n c l u d i n g d e b e n t u r e s ) 187 as w e l l as m o r t g a g e s , b u t e x c l u d e s r e p a y m e n t s o f p r i n c i p a l due w i t h i n a y e a r . The r a t i o o f m o r t g a g e d e b t t o n e t l o n g - t e r m d e b t has been b a s e d on t h e v a l u e (76.2 p e r c e n t ) c a l c u l a t e d f o r 1970, s i n c e t h e d a t a between 1970 a n d 1977 i n d i c a t e d t h a t t h e r e has been a g r a d u a l i n c r e a s e i n t h e v a l u e o f t h e r a t i o , and 1970 r e p r e s e n t s t h e y e a r i m m e d i a t e l y f o l l o w i n g t h e p e r i o d t o be e s -t i m a t e d . T h e r e f o r e , b a s e d on t h e m o r t g a g e t o n e t l o n g - t e r m d e b t r a t i o , t h e m a g n i t u d e o f m o r t g a g e d e b t f o r 1968 and 1969 has been e s t i m a t e d by m u l t i p l y i n g t h e p u b l i s h e d v a l u e f o r n e t l o n g - t e r m d e b t by t h e e s t i m a t e d r a t i o . Bond D e b t Bond d e b t f o r 1968 and 1969 has been e s t i m a t e d i n t h e same manner as t h a t u s e d f o r m o r t g a g e s . The r a t i o o f bond d e b t t o n e t l o n g - t e r m d e b t has b e e n b a s e d oh t h e v a l u e (17.5 p e r c e n t ) c a l c u -l a t e d f o r 1970, s i n c e t h e d a t a between 1970 and 1977 i n d i c a t e d t h e r e has been a g r a d u a l d e c r e a s e i n t h e v a l u e o f t h e r a t i o , and 197 0 r e p r e s e n t s t h e y e a r i m m e d i a t e l y f o l l o w i n g t h e p e r i o d t o be e s t i m a t e d . T h e r e f o r e , b a s e d on t h e bond t o n e t l o n g - t e r m d e b t r a t i o , t h e m a g n i t u d e o f bond d e b t f r o m 1968 and 1969 has been e s t i m a t e d by m u l t i p l y i n g t h e p u b l i s h e d v a l u e f o r n e t l o n g - t e r m d e b t by t h e r a t i o . APPENDIX V I I I ESTIMATES OF COMPLETIONS AND UNITS UNDER CONSTRUCTION A l t h o u g h d a t a on h o u s i n g c o m p l e t i o n s and u n i t s u n d e r c o n -s t r u c t i o n has b e e n made a v a i l a b l e f o r most o f t h e a r e a and t i m e p e r i o d s t u d i e d , i t h a s b e e n n e c e s s a r y t o e s t i m a t e t h e number o f c o m p l e t i o n s and u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n ( o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d d w e l l i n g s ) f o r n o n - p r o f i t h o u s i n g and f o r u n i t s c o n s t r u c t e d i n some s u b u r b a n m u n i c i p a l i t i e s between 1968 and 1971. The method u s e d t o make t h e s e e s t i m a t e s h a s b een b a s e d on a s t o c k f l o w m o d e l o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n , t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t h e number o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n i n any p e r i o d may be d e t e r m i n e d by a s i m p l e f u n c t i o n o f t h e most r e c e n t h o u s i n g s t a r t s p e r month, and t h e a s s u m p t i o n t h a t t e m p o r a l c h a n g e s t o t h e number o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n , n o t a t t r i b u t e d t o s t a r t s o r c o m p l e t i o n s , may be s i m i l a r f o r p r o f i t and n o n - p r o f i t h o u s i n g and f o r v a r i o u s m u n i c i -p a l i t i e s . The f i r s t s t e p i n t h e p r o c e d u r e has b e e n t o e s t i m a t e f o r e a c h p r o v i n c i a l p o r t i o n o f t h e s t u d y a r e a and f o r e a c h h o u s i n g t y p e ( s i n g l e - d e t a c h e d a n d d o u b l e o r row h o u s i n g ) t h e p e r i o d i c r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e number o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n a t t h e end o f a month and t h e number o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n a t t h e end o f t h e p r e v i o u s month, c u r r e n t h o u s i n g s t a r t s , c u r r e n t c o m p l e t i o n s and c u r r e n t a d j u s t m e n t s . T h i s s t o c k f l o w m odel o f 188 189 h o u s i n g u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n has been s p e c i f i e d a s shown i n e x p r e s s i o n A . l : p , c p , c p , c p , c p , c IUCF = IUCF + STSF - COMPF + ADJF A . l t t - 1 t t t N o t a t i o n : S u p e r s c r i p t s (p) and (c) r e s p e c t i v e l y r e f e r t o t h e s p e -c i f i c p r o v i n c i a l p o r t i o n s o f t h e s t u d y a r e a , and t h e h o u s i n g c l a s s ( s i n g l e f a m i l y o r row) IUCF = number o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g u n i t s u n d e r t c o n s t r u c t i o n i n t h e c u r r e n t p e r i o d ( t ) o r p r e -v i o u s p e r i o d ( t - 1 ) STSF = number o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g u n i t s t a r t s t i n t h e c u r r e n t p e r i o d (t) COMPF = number o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g u n i t c o m p l e -t t i o n s i n t h e c u r r e n t p e r i o d ( t ) ADJF = c u r r e n t p e r i o d (t) a d j u s t m e n t s t o t h e number o f t u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n \u2014 r e s u m e d b u i l d i n g ( + ) o r work s t o p p a g e s (-). The s e c o n d s t e p i n v o l v e s e s t i m a t i n g f o r e a c h p r o v i n c i a l p o r t i o n o f t h e s t u d y a r e a and f o r e a c h h o u s i n g t y p e ( s i n g l e f a m i l y o r row) t h e p e r i o d i c r e l a t i o n s h i p between t h e number o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n a t t h e end o f e a c h month and t h e number o f t h e most r e c e n t h o u s i n g s t a r t s . T h i s model has been s p e c i f i e d as shown i n e x p r e s s i o n A.2: j P,c S T \" p , c IUCF = Z__ STSF + t i=0 t - j N o t a t i o n : S u p e r s c r i p t s (p) and (c) r e s p e c t i v e l y r e f e r t o t h e s p e -c i f i c p r o v i n c i a l p o r t i o n s o f t h e s t u d y a r e a , and t h e h o u s i n g c l a s s ( s i n g l e f a m i l y o r row) p , c p , c b . STSF t t - j - 1 A.2 190 IUCF = (as above) t j _ STSF = t h e sum o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s t - j f r o m t h e c u r r e n t p e r i o d (t) t o t h e p r e -i=o c e d i n g p e r i o d ( t - j ) b t = t h e p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i n t h e l a s t p e r i o d ( t - j - 1 ) r e q u i r e d t o f o r m a sum e q u a l t o t h e v a l u e o f g r o u n d o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n i n t h e c u r r e n t p e r i o d (t) STSF = number o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g s t a r t s i n t - j - 1 t h e l a s t p r e c e d i n g p e r i o d ( t - j - 1 ) r e q u i r e d t o c o m p l e t e t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p The t h i r d s t e p a t t e m p t s t o e s t i m a t e t h e p e r i o d i c a d j u s t -ment t o t h e number o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n t h a t w o u l d n o t be a t t r i b u t e d t o t h e number o f c u r r e n t s t a r t s and c o m p l e t i o n s and t h e number o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n i n t h e p r e v i o u s p e r i o d . I t has b e en assumed t h a t t h e a d j u s t m e n t f o r n o n - p r o f i t h o u s i n g , and f o r h o u s i n g i n t h e added s u b u r b a n m u n i c i p a l i t i e s was compar-a b l e t o o t h e r h o u s i n g d e v e l o p m e n t s i n t h e s t u d y a r e a and may be e s t i m a t e d as a p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e c hange i n t h e number o f h o u s i n g u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n n o t a t t r i b u t e d t o c u r r e n t h o u s i n g s t a r t s . To e s t i m a t e t h e p e r i o d i c p r o p o r t i o n , t h e m o d e l has b e en s p e c i f i e d as shown i n e x p r e s s i o n A.3: p , c p , c p , c p , c p , c K = ADJF f (IUCF - IUCF + STSF ) A.3 t t t - 1 t t N o t a t i o n : S u p e r s c r i p t s (p) and (c) r e s p e c t i v e l y r e f e r t o t h e s p e c i -f i c p r o v i n c i a l p o r t i o n o f t h e s t u d y a r e a and t h e h o u s i n g c l a s s ( s i n g l e f a m i l y o r row) 191 K, ADJF t IUCF t STSF t = p r o p o r t i o n o f t h e change i n t h e number o f g r o u n d o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g u n i t s u n d e r c o n -s t r u c t i o n n o t a t t r i b u t e d t o c u r r e n t h o u s i n g s t a r t s i n t h e c u r r e n t p e r i o d ( t ) . = (as above) = (as above) = (as above) The f i n a l s t e p o f t h e p r o c e d u r e has been t o u s e t h e r e l a -t i o n s h i p o f l a g g e d t i m e p e r i o d s and t h e p e r i o d i c p r o p o r t i o n s t o e s t i m a t e t h e p e r i o d i c number o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n f o r non-p r o f i t h o u s i n g and f o r h o u s i n g i n t h e added s u b u r b a n m u n i c i p a l i -t i e s b a s e d on t h e h o u s i n g s t a r t s i n f o r m a t i o n . U s i n g t h e s e e s t i m a t e s , and t h e e s t i m a t e o f t h e ch a n g e s i n t h e number o f u n i t s u n d e r c o n s t r u c t i o n a t t r i b u t e d t o work s t o p p a g e s and resumed c o n -s t r u c t i o n , c o m p l e t i o n s were e s t i m a t e d u s i n g t h e r e l a t i o n s h i p a s shown i n e x p r e s s i o n A.4: p , c COMPF t p , c (1-K) t p , c (IUCF t - 1 p , c IUCF + t p , c STSF ) t A.4 N o t a t i o n : S u p e r s c r i p t s (p) and (c) r e s p e c t i v e l y r e f e r t o t h e s p e c i -f i c p r o v i n c i a l p o r t i o n s o f t h e s t u d y a r e a and t h e h o u s i n g c l a s s ( s i n g l e f a m i l y and row) COMPF = t h e number o f g r o u n d - o r i e n t e d h o u s i n g c o m p l e -t t i o n s i n t h e c u r r e n t p e r i o d (t) K. IUCF t = (as above) = (as above) STSF t = (as above) APPENDIX IX ESTIMATE OF THE QUANTITY OF EMPLOYMENT O b j e c t i v e To e s t i m a t e t h e q u a n t i t y o f t h e employed l a b o u r f o r c e an a t t e m p t has b een made t o e s t i m a t e t h e number o f e m p l o y e e s o f t h e c o m m e r c i a l s e c t o r o f t h e economy, t h e F e d e r a l Government, l o c a l g o v e r n m e n t s , t h e p u b l i c and p r i v a t e s c h o o l s , t h e c o l l e g e s and u n i v e r s i t i e s , as w e l l as t h e h o s p i t a l s . The C o m m e r c i a l S e c t o r The number o f e m p l o y e e s o f t h e c o m m e r c i a l s e c t o r i n t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t a r e a was e s t i m a t e d u s i n g a s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d measure o f t h e number o f e m p l o y e e s i n l a r g e f i r m s . The number o f e m p l o y e e s was m e a s u r e d u s i n g t h e i n d u s t r i a l c o m p o s i t e employment i n d e x o f t h e O t t a w a - H u l l M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a and an e s t i m a t e o f t h e a c t u a l number o f e m p l o y e e s r e l a t i v e t o t h e employment index.\"*\" The i n d u s t r i a l c o m p o s i t e i n d e x c o v e r s a l l c o m m e r c i a l i n d u s -t r i e s e x c e p t some p r i m a r y i n d u s t r i e s s u c h as a g r i c u l t u r e and e x c l u d e s by d e f i n i t i o n n o n - c o m m e r c i a l a c t i v i t i e s as e d u c a t i o n , h e a l t h , and p u b l i c a d m i n i s t r a t i o n . The i n d e x , b a s e d on a s u r v e y o f t h e number o f e m p l o y e e s i n f i r m s o f t w e n t y e m p l o y e e s o r more w i t h i n t h e 1961 b o u n d a r i e s o f t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a , w o u l d a p p e a r t o p r o v i d e a v a l i d and c o n s i s t e n t measure o f t h e number o f n o n -government and i n s t i t u t i o n a l employment. The a c t u a l number o f em-192 193 p l o y e e s r e l a t i v e t o t h e i n d e x (631.692 t o 1.0) was e s t i m a t e d u s -i n g t h e a v e r a g e m o n t h l y v a l u e s f o r t h e f i r s t s i x months o f 1978. F e d e r a l Government Employment The m o n t h l y number o f emp l o y e e s o f t h e F e d e r a l Government i n t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t a r e a has been e s t i m a t e d by i n t e r p o l a t i n g between t h e a n n u a l p u b l i s h e d number o f F e d e r a l e m p l o y e e s i n t h e 3 M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a . The p u b l i s h e d number o f emp l o y e e s f o r Sep-tember i n e a c h y e a r does n o t p r o v i d e d a t a on a l l e mployees b e -c a u s e c e r t a i n c a t e g o r i e s were s e l e c t i v e l y d e l e t e d ; however, an a t t e m p t was made t o e s t i m a t e t h e t o t a l number o f e m p l o y e e s t h a t w o u l d be v a l i d and c o n s i s t e n t t h r o u g h o u t t h e s t u d y p e r i o d . The method, t h e r e f o r e , u s e d t o e s t i m a t e t h e m o n t h l y number 1. A d j u s t t h e p u b l i s h e d d a t a o f F e d e r a l e m p l o y e e s i n t h e Ottawa M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a t o d e l e t e t h o s e c a t e g o r i e s o f employment added i n t h e y e a r s 1975 t o 1978. 2. E s t i m a t e t h e number o f F e d e r a l e m p l o y e e s i n September o f 1969 on t h e b a s i s o f t h e p r o d u c t o f t h e a v e r a g e o f t h e 1968 and 1970 v a l u e s o f t h e r a t i o and t h e a v e r a g e m o n t h l y t o t a l number o f F e d e r a l employ-e e s i n Canada f o r 1969. 3. E s t i m a t e t h e r a t i o o f t h e t o t a l number o f F e d e r a l em-p l o y e e s i n t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a t o t h e number o f F e d e r a l e m p l o y e e s i n t h e a d j u s t e d s e r i e s , t h e compute t h e a n n u a l t o t a l number o f F e d e r a l e m p l o y e e s b a s e d on t h e p r o d u c t o f t h e v a l u e o f t h e r a t i o (1.2 t o 1.) and t h e a n n u a l e s t i m a t e s made i n S t e p s (1) and (2).6 4. E s t i m a t e t h e t o t a l number o f F e d e r a l e m p l o y e e s i n t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a i n e a c h month o f t h e s t u d y p e r i o d by t h e a v e r a g e r a t e o f i n c r e a s e between e s t i m a t e s f o r September i n e a c h y e a r . o f F e d e r a l e m p l o y e e s was as f o l l o w s : A n n u a l Number of F e d e r a l Employees i n t h e Ottawa-H u l l M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a 194 L o c a l Government Employment The number o f e m p l o y e e s o f m u n i c i p a l i t i e s i n t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t a r e a has b e en e s t i m a t e d by t h e s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d number o f e m p l o y e e s o f m u n i c i p a l i t i e s i n t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a . The S t a t i s t i c s Canada e s t i m a t e o f t h e number o f e m p l o y e e s o f l o c a l g o v e r n m e n t s i n m u n i c i p a l i t i e s h a v i n g p o p u l a t i o n s g r e a t e r t h a n 10,000 w o u l d a p p e a r t o be a c o m p r e h e n s i v e and c o n s i s t e n t measure 7 o f t h e number o f e m p l o y e e s . A l t h o u g h m u n i c i p a l i t i e s w o u l d e n t e r and l e a v e t h e s e r i e s , as t h e b o u n d a r y o f t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a c h a n g e d o r when t h e p o p u l a t i o n o f t h e m u n i c i p a l i t y became t h e n e c e s s a r y s i z e , t h e s e r i e s w o u l d a p p e a r t o be a v a l i d measure o f l o c a l g o v e rnment employment b e c a u s e t h e e f f e c t o f s u c h c h a n g es w o u l d a p p e a r t o be m i n o r and t h e d i f f e r e n c e s between t h e t o t a l number o f e m p l o y e e s f o r a l l m u n i c i p a l i t i e s i n t h e M e t r o -p o l i t a n A r e a and t h e s e l e c t e d s e r i e s w o u l d a p p e a r t o be s m a l l b a s e d on q u a r t e r l y d a t a a v a i l a b l e f r o m 1967 t o 1978. P u b l i c and P r i v a t e E l e m e n t a r y and. The number o f e mployees o f t h e S e c o n d a r y S c h o o l s Employment p u b l i c and p r i v a t e s c h o o l s was b a s e d on e s t i m a t e s o f t h e number o f e m ployees i n t h e O n t a r i o and Quebec p o r t i o n s o f t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t a r e a . The method u s e d t o d e t e r m i n e t h e number o f employ-e e s was t o e s t i m a t e t h e number o f t e a c h e r s a t t h e b e g i n n i n g o f e a c h s c h o o l y e a r d u r i n g t h e s t u d y p e r i o d and t o m u l t i p l y t h e s e v a l u e s by e s t i m a t e s o f t h e t o t a l number o f e mployees p e r t e a c h e r i n t h e O n t a r i o and Quebec p o r t i o n s o f t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a . I t was assumed t h a t t h e t o t a l number o f e mployees r e m a i n e d c o n s t a n t f o r t h e e n t i r e s c h o o l y e a r , t h a t t h e employment f o r A u g u s t was t h e same f o r t h e f o l l o w i n g s c h o o l y e a r , and t h a t t h e employment f o r J u l y was t h e same f o r t h e p r e v i o u s s c h o o l y e a r . 195 Ontario. To estimate the number of teachers of public and separate schools i n the Ontario portion of the Metropolitan Area, the num-ber of teachers employed i n the County of Carleton (1967 to 1969) and the Region of Ottawa-Carleton (1970 to 1978) was used to ap-proximate the employment i n the market area which contains nearly a l l the population. An adjustment was made to eliminate the schools under the j u r i s d i c t i o n of the Federal Government. To estimate the number of teachers i n private schools i n the Ontario portion of the Metropolitan Area published data was available for the period 1976 to 1978. For the period 1965 to 1975 the number of teachers was calculated on the basis of the published number of students i n private schools and the 1976 ra t i o of number of teachers to students. To calculate the t o t a l number of employees, the r a t i o of the t o t a l number of employees to the number of teachers was estimated by available data per-taining to public school boards i n 1978 f o r the area under con-4 - - 1 0 sideration. Quebec. To estimate the number of teachers of a l l Catholic, prot-estant, and private schools i n the Quebec portion of the Metro-pol i t a n Area, the t o t a l number of teachers for the Outaouais School Region was apportioned to the housing market area by the proportion of the students which attended schools i n the defined a r e a . 1 1 The r a t i o of the t o t a l number of employees to the num-ber of teachers was estimated using data pertaining to Catholic 12 and protestant school boards i n the Outaouais Region. Colleges and Un i v e r s i t i e s Employment The number of employees of colleges and u n i v e r s i t i e s i n the market area was based on estimates of the number of employees 196 i n e a c h i n s t i t u t i o n i n t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a ( i . e . U n i v e r s i t i e s o f O t t a w a and C a r l e t o n , as w e l l as A l g o n q u i n C o l l e g e and C o l l e g e de 1 ' O u t a o u a i s ) . The method u s e d t o e s t i m a t e t h e number o f em-p l o y e e s was s i m i l a r t o t h a t u s e d w i t h r e s p e c t t o p u b l i c and p r i v -a t e s c h o o l s . The a n n u a l number o f employees o f e a c h i n s t i t u t i o n was e s t i m a t e d b a s e d on t h e number o f a c a d e m i c s t a f f a t t h e b e g -i n n i n g o f e a c h y e a r and an e s t i m a t e o f t h e r a t i o o f t h e t o t a l 13 number o f e m p l o y e e s t o t h e a c a d e m i c s t a f f . I t was assumed t h a t t h e t o t a l number o f e m p l o y e e s r e m a i n c o n s t a n t f o r t h e e n t i r e s c h o o l y e a r . F u r t h e r m o r e , t h e employment f o r A u g u s t was assumed t o have t h e same m a g n i t u d e e s t i m a t e d f o r t h e f o l l o w i n g y e a r , and t h e employment f o r J u n e and J u l y was assumed e q u i v a l e n t t o t h e e s t i m a t e f o r t h e p r e v i o u s s c h o o l y e a r . H o s p i t a l s Employment The employment i n p u b l i c and p r i v a t e h o s p i t a l s i n t h e h o u s i n g m a r k e t a r e a has been b a s e d on an e s t i m a t e o f t h e y e a r end number o f e m p l o y e e s o f e a c h I n s t i t u t i o n , and on t h e assump-t i o n t h a t t h e a n n u a l a v e r a g e m o n t h l y change i n t h e number o f em-p l o y e e s may a p p r o x i m a t e t h e a c t u a l m o n t h l y c h a n g e . The a n n u a l number o f e m p l o y e e s o f e a c h I n s t i t u t i o n f r o m 1967 t o 1976 was b a s e d on a c t u a l employment d a t a ; however, f o r 1977 and 1978 t h e t o t a l number o f e m p l o y e e s was e s t i m a t e d by t h e p r o d u c t o f t h e 14 number o f p a i d - h o u r s and t h e number o f employees p e r p a i d - h o u r . The number o f e m p l o y e e s p e r p a i d - h o u r has been e s t i m a t e d on t h e b a s i s o f t h e number o f e m p l o y e e s o f h o s p i t a l s i n t h e O n t a r i o 15 p o r t i o n o f t h e M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a i n 1976. 197 Footnotes \"\"\"Statistics Canada, Employment Earnings and Hours, Cata-logue No. 72-002 (Ottawa: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Monthly). 2 S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Employment Earnings and Hours, Cata-logues No. 72-002 Monthly and No. 72-517 Occasional (Ottawa: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, 1978). 3 Data on the annual number of employees of the Federal Government i n the Ottawa-Hull Metropolitan Area was available i n the publication: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Federal Government Employ- ment i n Metropolitan Areas, Catalogue No. 72-005 (Ottawa: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Annual). 4 Adjustments to the published data on the number of Feder-a l employees i n the Ottawa-Hull Metropolitan Area were provided by S t a t i s t i c s Canada to eliminate employees under the \"Special Funds\" category. 5 Data on the annual number of Federal employees was a v a i l -able i n the publication: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Federal Government  Employment, Catalogue No. 72-004 (Ottawa: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Quarterly). Data on the t o t a l number of employees of the Federal Gov-ernment i n the Ottawa-Hull Metropolitan Area has been provided for the years 1973, 1976, and 1979 by the National Capital Cornmission. Based on the data for the three years for which the information was available, the r a t i o of the t o t a l number of feder-a l employees i n the Metropolitan Area to the estimated number of Federal employees i n the s p e c i f i c category was computed to be 1.20, 1.21, and 1.22 respectively. Therefore, a value of 1.2 has been used to approximate the value of r a t i o . 7 S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Local Government Employment, Catalogue No. 72-009 (Ottawa: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Quarterly). Ontario Ministry of Education, Education S t a t i s t i c s (Toronto: Ministry of Education, Annual). 9 . Information Systems and Records Branch, Ontario Ministry of Education, Private Schools Enrollment (Toronto: Ontario Minstry of Education, Annual). \"^Unpublished data on the number of employees of public school boards i n the Region of Ottawa-Carleton was provided by the S t a t i s t i c a l Services Branch, Ontario Ministry of Education. \"'\"\"'\"The number of students by school and municipality was pro-vided by the Service Informatique, Quebec Ministere de 1'Educa-ti o n and was available i n the publication: Ministere de 1'Education, Gouvernement du Quebec, Repertoire Pes  Organisms Et Pes Ecoles (Quebec City: Le Service General Pes Communications du Ministere de l'Education, Annual). Furthermore, the number of teachers was available i n the 198 following publication: Ministere de l'Education, Gouvernement du Quebec, Stat1stiques de 1'Enseignemeht: Personnel Enseignant, Catalogue No. 22-P6869-2 (Quebec C i t y : Le Service General Des Comrnunications du Ministere de l'Education, Annual). 12 Unpublished data was provided on the number of employees of the Commissions Scolaires by the Service Informatique, Ministere de l'Education, Gouvernement du Quebec. Although actual values of the number of employees was provided for the school year 1973-1974 and thereafter, estimates of the employee-teacher r a t i o for the period p r i o r to 1973 were based on the data for the 1973-1974 year. 13 Data on the number of academic s t a f f i n the various i n s t i t u t i o n s was available i n the following publication: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, Canadian S t a t i s t i c a l Review, Catalogue No. 11-003 (Ottawa: S t a t i s t i c s Canada, July 1978), pp. 36 and. 38. and, Ministry of Colleges and U n i v e r s i t i e s , Province of Ontario, Report of the Ministry o f University A f f a i r s (Toronto: S t a t i s t i c a l Services, Ministry of Colleges and U n i v e r s i t i e s , Annual). and, Gouvernement du Quebec, Annuaire du Quebec (Quebec C i t y : Ministere de 1'Industrie et du Commerce, Annual). and, Data on the t o t a l number of employees i n each i n s t i t u t i o n was acquired for the 197 8-19 79 academic year from each college and u n i v e r s i t y . 14 Unpublished data on the annual number of employees and paid-hours worked i n each i n s t i t u t i o n was provided by the I n s t i t u -t i o n a l S t a t i s t i c s Section of S t a t i s t i c s Canada. \"'\"\"'The number of paid-hours i n hospitals i n the Ottawa area i n 1976 was available i n the following publication: Ontario Ministry of Health, Hospital S t a t i s t i c s (Toronto: Information Systems Divis i o n , Ministry of Health, 1977), pp. 61-68. APPENDIX X DATA E s t i m a t e s o f t h e v a r i a b l e s have been p r o v i d e d b e l o w i n t w e l v e t a b l e s . The a s s u m p t i o n s and s o u r c e s , p e r t a i n i n g t o t h e e s t i m a t e s , have been d i s c u s s e d i n CHAPTER V and i n t h e p r e c e d i n g a p p e n d i x e s . 199 2 0 0 TABLE A-3 GROUND-ORIENTED HOUSING UNITS IN THE HOUSING MARKET AREA DATE TSTS TCOMP TIUCF VC PSTS COMP IUCF DEMOH STKOH Y e a r and Month o f E n t r y T o t a l H o u s i n g U n i t S t a r t s T o t a l H o u s i n g U n i t C o m p l e t i o n s T o t a l H o u s i n g U n i t s Under C o n s t r u c t i o n I n v e n t o r y o f U n o c c u p i e d New H o u s i n g P r o f i t M o t i v a t e d H o u s i n g U n i t S t a r t s P r o f i t M o t i v a t e d H o u s i n g U n i t C o m p l e t i o n s P r o f i t M o t i v a t e d H o u s i n g U n i t s Under C o n s t r u c t i o n H o u s i n g U n i t D e m o l i t i o n s H o u s i n g S t o c k 201 iA ; u% i n i n cvj r\\j t \\ j i v \u2022 <D *f CX ; (A i n i n ! i n i n i n , i n m i n I CV IV t \\ i CV CV CNJ c> ^- C O <r K H ro *\u00ab- -a- o o> w o * o d o c w \u00abc c M m m ->r wrj i n i n ec ec co coj i\\j r v i n ; i n i n ml cv \u00a9 co i n r o p m CJ o CJ i n O K. PO vD MO PO VC \\C ^ ITi IT. IT| *r <ff <r. CO CD CO CO CO CD t n i n i n i n i n i n NO K) \u00bb0 Kt M \u00bb0 sO.iXl VC \\X> O K- NT 1*0 O O i n K V K l W CJ| -ff CC CD O O O C m i n o o o o i n co fO vl> co i n i n *\u2022* r^ w r o -a- \u00ab*r \\T\\ m* \u00a9 O \u00a9 \u00a9 . \u00a9 C O O \u00a9 \u00a9 < \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \\X3 vD vD i \\0 U2 co i n rw i v PO CC v-f \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 o -9 <T PO \u00a9 \u00a9 u v i n O \u00a9 C V t V \u00abn \u00a9 eo ro | \u00ab<r K. rw ! * - i \u00abH i n CO \u00a9 K. rw tO N-> \u2022jf co on co on ON \u2022ff i n i n r o \u00ab# O PwiPw (V N . >M K l ti*i i f i (Ol CM CJ (SJ\u00abl\\J CO i\\Jj 1 03 i n *-4 U3 CJ| i n i n \u00a9 \u00a9 PO \u00bb\u00bb .r \u00bb-t M m ^ \u00abo| co INJ CJ> cv co cv co eo: i n i v \u00a9 K. iC O i C O M rw m co ^ i n ^ IV (\\J l \\ l i PO PO \u00a9 OV 00 \u00ab# i \u00a3 O k , tC K i k rO PO IT\\ \u00a9 rO \u00a9 PO SD PO; PO PO PO ON tV *-l CO UD O i n *-f ice i n us (Sj rO .*\u2022\u2022\u2022-< Pw t> PO PO PO.PO IV CJ ON vo tw i n i n IM CDtx O k (C \u00a9 i-< UB fcD # * i f t W N W iW N N \u00a9 \u00a9 00 \\\u00a3> *-i N. IM \u00a9 ro ro CJ l\\J CJ IV O Pw \u00a9 ON CV vD *-*| ^ ; U 3 PO CJ \u2014t CNJ CO:K- K. ON \u2022-< *-(.-\u2022 co i n \u2022\u00bb t v ; * * - PO P\u00abJ ua ua \u00a9 \u2022* ON m U3 po o - t r CJ PO H f V J k l l C k l \\ l \u00a9 PO t D ' O CJ O -ff - \u00bb .TiPw ON \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 : l f l INJ CO: PO PO \u00abJTi i\\J fO W IA k I f t K.I \u00a9 \u00a9 CO \u00abtf CO IW IV \u00ab0*JU3 t v | M f > CO'CV i > M vD i n OD:\u00ab* i n \u00a9 \u00bb<o f-< k,i<M \u00ab(r i n l i f t i k K l i \" ! * HI W # l \\ l * l k (X> PO \u00abff \u00bbH JPO 00 CO PO \u2022*\u2022) (\\J \u2022> o \\ CJ - \u00bb o o ^ u3 VO N . i n tO K l K l iCJ CJ i v \u00bbo i v r o *N i n i n i n i n ao I\\J \u2022* \u00abr i n K. U9 c j \u00a9 \u00a9i\u00ab~t \u00a9 i n k. r o <r-cj i v c j co o ^ ; i n \u00a9 t o r o v\u00a3 \u00bb-\u00ab;m m i n IO K : M m i n os (w< i n \u00abM t v | ( O O t O ; \u00ab < H O * r o eV >* w H i i n CJ ^ i n \u00bbo \u2022 cv \u00ab^ i n \u00a9 \u00bb \u00a9 i n i v ^ t > O M N vD CO co t o i n co \\\u00a3> i v co i n * I\u00a9 03 -tf * i s r t n \u00abJ H t\\J K ) K l A J iO i n \u00a9 ON CO lO CO KD K. o \\ ro K- i n eo co r o K , *o .\u00abr u? c j K . r\u00ab. i \u00a3 K . iO i \u00a3 ro oo iO OD i n \u00a9 4 i > K l i p . k . H t f i tO < O k O ON \u2014< i n ON i o ON \u00a9 *-* K i \u00a9 ; \u00a9 i n O H . O ' f r ON CO eo r o ; i n rw ^ ON i n coi\u00abj3 ON ro O \u00a9 eoikk K> OD H (\\J \u00a9 ik. vo i n co o CJ \\D * o ; r o c j * ON OO ON\u2022 N. US: \u00a9 CJ O r o r o rw \u00a9 CO \u00a9 05 K . \\ o i n * * >o i n co co \u00abo r o rw U3 b C CO K i 4 *\u00bb h k . m w \u00bbfi uj ua i n ro \u00a9 W \u00a9 rw \u00a9 L k l T i K (O \u00a9 CD ^ O \u00a9 ON ON rV fO OX \u00a9 K ) PO ON o e - e o k vr \u00bb-T 0 eo fO CO ON ro i n rw co CJ i v CJ \\D ON \u00abM \u00a9 C J i v CJ t v C J r o '*\u00bb tw co - * * M cv fw \u00abff ON ON \u00abtf ON i n CNJ f \\ j i n vO co CJ CJ c j CJ i v c j \u2022jf co i n i n CJ \u00a9 k- VO : k . K i iw i n co vo i n i v cv i v T ro r o ro \u2022ff \u00a9 ON \u00ab\u2014< eo \u00ab* rw \u00a9 rw 05 ro K ro i n \u00a9 \u00bbo \u00a9 o* cv t n CD \\ o o i n r o r o *r cv PO i n \u00bbo ON \u2022-* ro r o r o t o i v r o ON ON \u00ab-* ON ON 1\\J I\u00a9 \u00a9 eo ivO \u00a9 \u00a9 lT) K- \u00a9 | \u00ab W 3 * - 4 K . | K > e o e o u 9 u 3 i n ^ - i O f o r o t CJ c j CJ c j i v r v i v CJ CJ O CO f\u2014 CO Pw \u00a9 ON \u00ab-\u00ab CJ \u00abr vO U3 \u00bbo cv |ro cv eo Pw ON \u00a9 ON rsj *- i co m j in * i v \u00ab* r o cv rw \u00abo ro i n c j \u00bbo \\C ro ev %r CJ r o H t \\ ) M A OO W \u2022Jf *0 ON i n CO \u00a9 ro oD ON us i n \u2022\u00bb 4 k , K l ^ H ^a* pw rw i o \u00ab-* o i n cv i PO \u2022 * -cv ro . r o m u3 \u2022 v m K. o o M \u00ab r t o co rw i v \u00abr NO CJ \u2022-\u2022ON co r u ON ro 03 po i n ~* i n \u00a9 PO CJ CO<H <r m CO CO K) K) <\u2022 r o (ro i*v ON Pw o3 *8> \u00bb-i ^ O PO iro \u00a9 or PO po ro ev ON M o O W O m M C j v < \u00a9 O N | C O P w \\ O l A \u00ab t f PO ^ - ^ - ^ O \u00a9 O O O O O ON ON ON ON |ON ON ON ON ON ON i n i n i n PW co i v lev i n r o r o -or i n Pw us | N H i\\) - O Ov !\u00a9 O <-i \u00ab-4 \u00ab^ O ON CC CO CC CC K o o * o t n <o k t n H N j\u00bb\u00bb ro ^ r o i v cv ro vo ~* m m i n i n rw r o ^ m i n CN N\u00bb i n r v ION \u00a9 \\0 *H pM \u00a9 !\u2022\u00bb PO ON <* \u00bbo \u00bb^ 4 IO i n o i n w co Pw vo m \u2022 t f p o ; i v * - \u00ab c j \u00ab - ' \u00a9 O N l c o p w i l o i n ^ r o O O 0 0 O O | O O T - \u00ab - ^ \u00ab - \u00ab O O O O O O O CO 00 CO CC CO CC IcO CC k k k k k k Pw Pw Pw Pw ON O CV IV O CO \u00a9 >J3 \u2022 * \" C D \u00ab j 5 i n c o v D i V \" ^ \u00bb - ' ' f f m j e o \u00ab i n < - f 0 9 * t f , k e r ^ e v r o c v v - t i v w o o N b O p w - k O i r i - t T p r c v \u00ab - i r \\ j \u00ab H P. k l D W 3 \\ O t h O U 3 W 2 t \u00a3 t O U 5 U 2 U 3 m i n \"DATE j i j i \" ~ Km ' M E ' ' K PSH CUR M L mm mm 7510 30*. 32*. 2951. 4*9. 30*. 32*. 2951. 16.25 138895. 7509 571. 217. 2978. * 1 7 . 5 \/ 1 . 2 i 7 . 2 9 7 8 . 16.25 13869*. 7508 715. 2*1. 2655. 586. 715. 2*1. 2655. 16.25 138*69. 750 7 *63. 352. 2189. 618. \u00bb63. 352. 2189. 16.25 138133.  7506 55*7 2T<7 2086. TW. 55*. 234. 2086. 16.25 137916. 7505 632. 255. 1766. 716. 632. 255. 1766. 16.25 137677. 750* 107. 172. 1385. 626. 107. 172. 1386. 16.25 137521. 7503 119. 99. 1*57. 791. 119. 99. \" 1*57. i 6 . 2 5 1 3 7 4 3 8 -7502 162. 188. 1*39. 978. 162. 188. 1*39. 16.25 137267. 7501 99. 287. 1*50. 1079. 99. 287. 1*50. . 16.25 136996. 7%X? 79^\u2014 9Tm 1575. 9T07 797 9037 16767 4*713 136137. 7*11 130. 380. 2*80. 317. 130. 380. 2*80. **.33 135802. 7*10 19*. 1003. 2765. *97. 19*. 1003. 2755. *4.33 13*793. 7*09 *86. *58. 3577. 319. *86. * 5 8 . \" 3577. \"\" * * . 3 3 \" 1 3*326. 7*08 620. 352. 3550. 131. 620. 352. 3550. 44.33 13*007. 7*07 38*^ 399. 3291. 358. 38*. 399. 3291. *4.33 133601. 7*0^ 6 5D1. 5277 JJTT. 311. 501 . 527. 3311. **.33 133118. 7*05 5*8. 437. 3160. 99. 5*8. *37. 3160. **.33 132726. 7*0* *12. *20. 3087. 258. *12. *20. 3087. **.33 132350. 7*03 221. *68. 3093. \" 2 0 0 1 \" 2 21. 468; 3093. \" 4*. 3 3 '131926. O 7*02 133. *56. 3350. 184. 133. *56. 3350. *4.33 131515. K) 7*01 215. *54. 3677. 127. 215. 46*. 3 6 7 7 . * * . 3 3 131095. 73 rz errr 4-077 *o * r r vr. s r n swr. 4o*s7 29.33 130688. 7311 578. *97. 382*. **. 578. *9r. 3824. 29.83 130221. 7310 872. 572. 3749. 87. 872. 572. 37*9. 29.83 129678. 7309 426. 393. 3*54. 91. \" 4 26. 39 3. \" 3 * 5 * . 29.3 3 ' 1 2 9 3 i 2 . 7308 5*9. 357. 3*23. 78. 5*9. 357. 3*23. 29.83 128982. 7307 883. 211. 3231. 99. 883. 213. 3231. 29.83 128799. 7 30 6 3 <rrr 22T. zs^r. nre^ 303. zz~r. 27537 29711 12860a. 7305 325. *15. 2*80. 116. 325. *15. 2*80. 29.83 128201. 730* 239. 26*. 2571. 118. 239. 26*. 2571. 29.83 127959. 7303 377. 331. 2595. 1 0 3 . 3 7 7 . \" 3 3 1 . \" 2595. 29.83 127658. 7302 196. 369. 2558. 85. 196. 369. 2558. 29.83 127318. 7301 *67. *38. 273*. 121. *67. *38. 273*. 29.83 126910. 7 212 2W. 337\". 27TK7 ST~. ZW. 387. 27T57 36733 126559. 7211 472. 783. 2865. 163. 472. 783. 2865. 36.33 125813. 7210 3*7. 485. 3177. 137. 3*7. *85. 3177. 36.33 12536*. 7209 36*. *57. 3 1 6 * . 1 0 5 . 3 6 4 . \" * 5 f . 3 1 6 * . 3 6 7 3 3 1 2 4 9 4 3 . 7208 662. 206. 3221. 102. 662. 206. 3221. 36.33 124774. 720 7 385. 315. i 6 2 6 - 137. 385. 315. 2626. 36.33 124*87. 7206 2T8. YZW. 2T577 F*\"57 298. 120. 2557. 36.33 12**03. 7205 630. 327. 2375. 183. 630. 327. 2375. 36.33 12*113. 720* 375- 221. 2000. 157. 375. 221. 2000. 36.33 123928. 7203 134. 289. 1971. 1*5. 1 3 * . ~ 2 8 9 . \" 1971. 36.33 123675. 7202 1*0. 728. 2119. 177. 1*0. 728. 2119. 36.33 122927. 7201 401 . 347. 2977. 159. 401. 3*7. 2977. 3 6 . 3 3 1 2 2 6 1 6 . 7112 ~4~9*T. 3T3^ 1T37. IT577 TTT. 29997 537T1 1223597 7111 713. 395. 2967. 793. 713. 395. 2827. 53.33 122013. 7110 53*. 516. 2655. 2*2. 50*. 516. 2515. 53.33 121490. 7109 540. *13. 2542. 556. 540. 279. 2532. 53.33 i2l072. DATE n o e 7107 7106 7105 Mor 7103 710Z 7101 7012 7011 70TO~ 7009 7008 7007 7006 7005 7004\u2014 7003 7002 7001 6912 6911 6910 6909 6908 6907 6906 6905 -6904~ 6903 6901 6902 6812 6811 \"frBTO\" 6809 6808 6807 6806 6805 6 W \u00ab ~ 6803 6802 6801 6712 6711 6 7 1 0 -6709 6708 6707 isia 4 6 5 . 4 7 2 . 5 2 3 . 2 7 9 . ~4~667_ 313. 1 0 0 . 2 1 5 . 1 5 9 . 6 4 4 . \"64ZT~ 9 1 7 . 6 4 5 . 4 9 2 . 3 7 8 . 3 5 8 . ~T76T~ 151-151. 3 5 0 . 2 91 . 3 3 3 . 5 8 0 . 4 3 6 . 4 8 0 . 7 5 6 . 6 2 9 . 3 5 4 . 2 5 4 . 2 7 7 . 145. 4 6 3 . 4 0 1 . - \u00ab T 7 \" ~ 5 6 4 . 3 4 8 . 3 5 5 . 2 9 7 . 6 6 2 . 3 0 1 . 156. 1 2 4 . 196. 2 7 7 . 37377 3 1 9 . 3 6 9 . 5 8 1 . KffiR 8 6 4 . 455. 3 0 3 . 2 5 6 . -4T7T 4 2 6 . 2 0 1 . 318. 2 3 8 . 4 9 3 . \"438T\" 3 7 4 . 4 3 9 . 5 6 2 . 134. 1 8 8 . 3 * 6 7 ~ 3 6 2 . 5 7 0 . 3 7 6 . 3 2 3 . 4 5 1 . 6 6 6 . 2 7 4 . 2 3 5 . 471; 2 2 2 . 3 5 3 . ?^ or 2 7 3 . 394. 2 8 7 ; 4 2 8 . 5 9 9 . 5 0 1 . 2 4 9 . 4 5 7 . 122. 2 8 0 . T O T T -192. 2 0 0 . 2 5 5 . J1EE 2515. 2952. 2951. 2745. 2736. 2720. 2834. 2937. 3042. 3120. 2771. 2228. 2069. 2146. 1903. 497. 418. 4 9 2 . 544. 570. 567. 491. \"4177 5 9 4 . 5 4 6 . ~3T37~ 6 6 3 . 9 4 5 . 683.\" 4 6 8 . 6 2 2 . 1713. 1948. 2390. 2427. 2461. 8 7 5 . 8 4 9 . 8 6 0 . 6 0 0 . 5 4 0 . 5 4 7 . 2572. 2673. 2521. 2252. 1983. 1579. 157 7 r 1453. 1653. 1475. 1762. 1826. 1997. 2127. 2064. 1968. 2071. 1898. 4 9 7 . 5 4 7 . 5 7 0 . 5 8 5 . 5 4 9 . 6 2 7 . 617 . 8 2 4 . 9 3 1 . 9 0 0 . 1239. 1067. 7 9 0 . 6 1 0 . 5 6 6 . 5 9 7 ; 344. 3 7 2 . 3 9 0 . 4 7 2 . 5 2 3 . 2 7 9 . CJME 5 1 6 . i i i . 2 1 7 . 2 3 8 . 4 6 6 . 2 37. 1 0 0 . 2 1 5 : 159. 3 5 7 . UJ\u00a3F 2271. 2434 . 2 3 8 9 . 2 0 9 7 . DEMOH 53.33 53.33 53.33 53.33 3 6 7 . 3 9 7 . 2 0 1 . s i s . 2 3 8 . 3 6 9 . 5 4 1 . 6 7 5 . 5 8 9 . 4 9 2 . 3 7 8 . 3 5 8 . 1986. 1899. 2 0 6 0 . 2 1 6 3 . 2 2 6 8 . 2 3 4 6 . 5 3 . 3 3 5 3 . 3 3 5 3 . 3 3 5 3 . 3 3 2 8 . 0 0 2 8 . 0 0 3 5 4 . 3 6 9 . 3 5 3 . 3 5 6 . 134. 1 8 4 . 2 3 5 9 . 2177. 1871. 1681. 1552. 1309. 2 8 . 0 0 2 8 . 0 0 2 8 . 0 0 2 8 . 66 2 8 . 0 0 2 8 . 0 0 2 2 3 . 151. 151. 2 i 2 . 2 7 6 . 3 3 3 . 3 2 5 . 3 4 3 . 4 7 1 . 3 3 4 . 2 4 3 . 4 3 6 . 2 9 6 . 4 3 6 . 4 6 0 . 766. 4 1 7 . 354. 11 37. 1248. 1464. 1797. 1930. 1899. 28 .00 2 8 . 0 0 2 8 . 0 0 2 8 . 0 0 27 .08 _27_,_nB_ T5rer 1338. 1230. 1264. 1384. 3 9 4 . 3 5 6 . 3 8 2 . 4 0 4 . 4 3 3 . 2 5 4 . 2 7 7 . 145. 4 6 3 . 4 0 1 . 4 1 7 . 5 6 4 . 3 4 8 . 3 5 5 . 2 9 7 . 5 4 2 . 3 3 0 . 3 0 1 . 156. i 2 0 . 196. 2 7 7 . 6 6 6 . 2 7 4 . 2 3 5 . 4 71. 2 2 2 . 3 5 3 . 2 0 0 0 . 23 8 5 . 2233. 1984; 1771 . 1579. 2 9 0 . 2 7 3 . 394. 2 8 7 . 4 1 0 . 3 6 3 . 2 7 . 0 8 2 7 . 0 8 2 7 . 0 8 2 7 . 0 8 2 7 . 0 8 2 7 . 0 8 1577. 1453. 1653. 14 75. 1762. 1799. 2 7 . 0 8 2 7 . 0 8 2 7 . 0 8 \"2 7 .6 8 2 1 . 0 8 2 1 . 0 8 4 9 3 . 4 8 2 . 2 4 9 . 4 537 122. 2 8 0 . 1764. 1844 . 1764. 1668. 1767. 1594. 2 1 . 0 8 2 1 . 0 8 2 1 . 0 8 2 1 . 0 8 2 1 . 0 8 2 1 . 0 8 3 0 4 . 1 9 2 . 2 0 0 . 2 5 5 . 13 32. 1334. 1225. 12 6 0 . 1384 . 2 1 . 0 8 2 1 . 0 8 2 1 . 0 8 2 1 . 0 8 373. 319. 3 6 9 . 581 . SIKQH 120203. 119732. 119552. 119349. 118956. 118583. 118435. 118171. 117961. 117493. 117086. 116740. 116329. 115795. 115689. 115529. 115211. 114877. 114335. 113987. 113691. 11 32J52L. 112628. 112372. 112164. 111720. 11 1525. 111199. 110937. 110691. 110064. 110431. 109657. 109079. 108557. 108077. 107849. 107413. 107312. 107053. 106770. 1 0 6 6 0 0 . 106421. 106187. 105887. tsj O 204 TABLE A-4 ANNUAL LAND TAXES, SERVICING COSTS, DISPOSABLE INCOME, AND LABOUR FORCE IN THE MARKET AREA DATE = Y e a r and Month o f E n t r y RLANTX = A v e r a g e U n s e r v i c e d L a n d P r o p e r t y Tax P e r A c r e SLANTX = A v e r a g e S e r v i c e d L a n d P r o p e r t y T a x P e r A c r e SRVCST = S e r v i c i n g C o s t s , C o n s u l t a n t F e e s , and O v e r h e a d P e r F r o n t F o o t o f Road TDIOH = T o t a l D i s p o s a b l e Income f o r t h e O t t a w a - H u l l M e t r o p o l i t a n A r e a ALABOH = A v e r a g e L a b o u r F o r c e i n t h e F i r s t F o u r Months F o l l o w i n g t h e S p e c i f i e d T a x a t i o n Y e a r ADIOH = A n n u a l A v e r a g e D i s p o s a b l e Income P e r P e r s o n i n t h e L a b o u r F o r c e MIE 1980 RLANTX 32 .30 SLANTX 588.17 SRVCST 106.68 ALABOH API OH 1979 1978 1977 1976 1975 1974 21.29 20.34 19.42 18.37 15. 18 14.87 560.87 535.18 511.42 483.60 398.89 391.25 103.94 95-75 91 .55 84 .90 76 .35 74 .67 4290280 3803490 3383760 3056470 2589940 281542 281259 271509 262547 254557 15239 13523 12458 11642 10174 O 1973 1972 1971 1970 1969 1968 T9n67~ 315.69 281.32 255.79 237.48 235.87 193. 18 66.71 56 .93 54 .06 50.61 44 .86 39.57 2135930 1875690 J 5 5 1 6 3 0 _ 1381480 1235230 1114430 210.50 240635 225606 216658 20 2 5 76 193303 187652 35.66 8876 8314 7162 6820 6390 5939 1006753 180399 558 1 206 TABLE A-5 CONSTRUCTION INDUSTRY STRIKES,\/DISPOSABLE INCOME, , AND SEASONS IN; THE HOUSING MARKET AREA DATE = Y e a r and Month o f E n t r y STRIKE = Number o f Man-days o f Work L o s t A t t r i b u t e d t o S t r i k e s i n t h e C o n s t r u c t i o n I n d u s t r y DIOH = A v e r a g e D i s p o s a b l e Income P e r P e r s o n i n t h e L a b o u r F o r c e Over t h e P r e v i o u s T w e l v e Months SPRING = Dummy V a r i a b l e f o r M a r c h and A p r i l SUMMER = Dummy V a r i a b l e f o r May, J u n e , J u l y , and A u g u s t F A L L = Dummy V a r i a b l e f o r September, O c t o b e r , and November WINTER = Dummy V a r i a b l e f o r December, J a n u a r y , and F e b r u a r y D U E STRIKE D1QH \" SPRING SUMMER FAIL WINTER 7912 0- 0- 0. 0. 1. 7911 3 . 0. 0. \" ~ I . 0. \" 1 0 0 . 0. 0. 1. 0. 7909 0 - 0. 0. 1. 0. 7908 o^  o; 1. o. 07 7907 3. 0. 1. 0. 0. 7906 3 . 0 . 1. 0. 0. 7905 \u2022 \u2022 3 . 1 . 0 . 0 . \" \" 0 . ' 7904 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. 7903 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 7902 i n rr. rr. o7 r. 7901 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 7812 3 . 0. 0. 0. 1. 7811 0. - 0. \" 0 . ~ 1. ' 0 . * ' ' 7810 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 78 09 1600. 0. 0. 1. 0. 7 B U B \u2014 17600. 07 1. o7 67 7807 16003. 0. 1. 0. 0. 7806 0. 15085.5 0. 1. 0. 0. 7805 0. 1 4 9 3 6 . 2 1 . ' 6 . \" ' ~ 0 . 6 . M 7804 3 . 14788.3 1. 0. 0. 0. \u00b0 7803 0. 14641.9 0. 0. 0. 1. ^ 780\"2 0. 14496.9 0. 0. 0. 1. 7801 0. 14353.4 0. 0. 0. 1. 7712 3 . 14211.3 0. 0. 0. 1. ' 7 7 1 1 3 . 1 4 0 7 0 . 6 \" 0 . ~ \" 0 . \" ' \" 1 . 6 . \" \" 7710 3 . 13931.2 0. 0 . 1. 0. 7709 3 . 13793.3 0 . 0 . 1. 0. 77 03 3 . rr&-56T7 07 i . b7 57 7707 3 . 13521.5 0. 1. 0 . 0 . 7706 0 . 1 3 4 0 8 . 4 6. 1. 0 . 0. 7 7 0 5 3 . 1 3 317.1 \" \" 1 . - 0 . 0.\"\"' 0 7 ' ' ' 7704 0 . 13226.3 1. 0 . 0 . 0. 7703 0 . 13136.2 0 . 0 . 0 . 1. 7702 0 .^ 13046.7 0. XT. 07 1. 7701 3 . 12957.8 0. 0 . 0. I . 7612 0 . 12909.3 0. 0 . 0 . 1. 7611 0 . 12821 . 3 ' 0. \" 0 . ~ ' ' 1 . \" \" 07 7610 4 9 6 0 3 . 12734.0 0 . 0 . 1. 0. 7609 1 0 3 8 0 0 . 12647.2 0. 0 . 1. 0 . 7608 1725\". 12561.1 0^  1. 5. 07 7607 0 . 12475.5 0. 1. 0 . 0. 7606 0 . 12397.9 0. 1. 0. 0 . 7605 3 . 12328.0 1. 0 . 0 . 67 7604 3 . 12258.6 1. 0 . 0. 0 . 7603 0. 12189.6 0. <K 0 . 1.  7902 07 r 2 1 2 0 . 9 67 67 ' 6T K 7601 3. 12052.6 0. 0 . 0. I . 7512 3 . 12104.5 0. 0 . 0. 1. 7511 Oi 1 2 0 3 6 . 4 0. 0 . I . 0 . ~ D A J i STR IKE\" \" \" DIM SPRING SUMMER FALL WINTER 7 5 1 0 0 - 1 1 9 6 8 . 6 0 . 0 . 1 . 0. 7 5 0 9 0 . 1 1 9 0 1 . 2 0 . 0 . I . 6.* 7 5 0 8 0 . 1 1 8 3 4 . 2 0 . 1 . 0 . 0 . 7 5 0 7 1 7 6 0 0 . 1 1 7 6 7 . 5 0 . 1 . 0 . 0 . 75U6 IfJtJijrT r i 6 T 8 T F 07 1 . b7 0~ 7 5 0 5 0 . 1 1 5 3 8 . 4 1. 0 . 0 . 0 . 7 5 0 4 J . 1 1 4 0 9 . 6 1 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 7 5 0 3 0 . 1 1 2 8 2 . 8 0 . 0 . 0 . \" 1 . 7 5 0 2 3 . 1 1 1 5 6 . 2 0 . 0 . 0 . 1 . 7 5 0 1 9 . 1 1 0 3 1 . 7 0 . 0 . 0 . 1. 7412 3 ; n m s T 5 or ; \u2014 o ; 07 1. 7 4 1 1 0 . 1 0 6 9 5 . 7 0 . 0 . 1 . 0 . 7 4 1 0 J . 1 0 5 7 6 . 3 0 . 0 . 1 . 0. 7 4 0 9 0 . 1 0 4 5 8 . 3 0 . 0 . \" 1 \" . \" 0 . \" \"' 7 4 0 8 0 - 1 0 3 4 1 . 5 0 . 1 . 0 . 0 . 7 4 0 7 0 . 1 0 2 2 6 . 1 0 . 1 . 0 . 0 . \u2014 7 4 06 2 2 7 5 3 . t U T i m <T. 1 . rr. TT. 7 4 0 5 4 5 0 . 9 9 9 6 . 8 1. 0 . 0 . 0 . 7 4 0 4 3 . 9 8 8 3 . 7 1 . 0 . 0 . 0 . \" 7 4 0 3 3 . ~ 97 7 1 . 0 - 0 . ' \" 0 . 0 . \" 1 . \" T O 7 4 0 2 3 . 9 6 6 1 . 4 0 . 0 . 0 . 1 . O 7 4 0 1 0 . 9 5 5 2 . 1 0 . 0 . 0 . 1 . 0 0 T312 3T 9 3 6 1 . 6 07 07 57 IT 7 3 1 1 0 . 9 2 5 5 . 7 0 . 0 . 1 . 0 . 7310 0 . 9 1 5 1 . 0 0 . 0 . 1 . 0 . \" 7 3 0 9 7 5 3 . 9 0 4 7 . 5 \" 0 . \" 0 . 1 7 \" 6 7 \" 7 3 0 8 0 . 8 9 4 5 . 2 0 . 1 . 0. 0 . 7 3 0 7 3 . 8 8 4 4 . 0 0 . I . 0 . 0 . 7 305 57 8 7 6 9 - 9 67 1 . 67 07 7 3 0 5 3 . 8 7 2 2 . 3 1 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 7 3 0 4 0 . 8 6 7 4 . 8 1. 0 . 0 . 0 . 7 3 0 3 6 0 0 . 8 6 2 7 . 7 ' 0 . 0 . 0 . * * ' f - ' ~ 7 3 0 2 0 . 8 5 8 0 . 7 0 . 0 . 0 . 1 . 7 3 0 1 0 . 8 5 3 4 . 1 0 . 0 . 0 . 1. 721Z Tl 8 6 5 3 . 0 TJl 07 07 IT 7 2 1 1 3 . 8 6 0 6 . 0 0 . 0 . 1. 0 . 7 2 1 0 3 . 8 5 5 9 . 1 0 . 0 . 1 . 0 . 7 2 0 9 3 i 8 5 1 2 . 7 - 0 . - \u2014 0 . - \" \" 1 . \" \" 0 . 7 2 0 8 0 . 8 4 6 6 . 4 0 . 1 . 0 . 0 . 7 2 0 7 3 . 8 4 2 0 . 3 0 . 1 . 0. 0 . \u2014 7 2 0 6 0~. 8 3 T5V4 0 ; H 0T 0 . 7 2 0 5 3 . 8 2 4 2 . 2 1. 0 . 0 . 0 . 7 2 0 4 0 . 8 1 4 0 . 4 1 . 0 . 0 . 0 . 7 2 0 3 3 . \" 8 0 3 9 . 8 0 . 0 . 0 . 1 . 7 2 0 2 3 . 7 9 4 0 . 5 0 . 0 . 0 . 1 . 7 2 0 1 0 . 7 8 4 2 . 4 0 . 0 . 0 . 1 . 7 1 1 2 0 ^ 7 T 6 9 T B 07 07 97 IT 7111 0 . 7 4 7 6 . 2 0 . 0 . 1 . 0 . 7 1 1 0 3 . 7 3 8 3 . 8 0 . 0 . 1. 0 . 7 1 0 9 7 5 0 . 7 2 9 2 . 6 0 . \" 0 . 1. 6. DAIE STRIKE JIM SEEING. SUMMER FILL WINTER ' 1 0 8 1275- 7202.5 0. 1 . 0. 0. 7107 3 . 7 U 3 . 5 6 . 1 . 0. o . 7106 0 . 7055 .0 0. 1 . 0. 0. 7105 IK 7026.3 1 . 0 . 0. 0 . 7HTC 57 6997.7 J7 6 7 67 67 7103 0 . 6969.2 0. 0. 0. 1 . 7102 3 . 6940.8 0 . 0 . 0. 1 . 7101 0 . 6 9 1 2 . 5 6 . ' 6 . 0 . \" 1 . 7012 0 . 6987 .4 0. 0 . 0. 1 . 7011 0 . 6959 .0 0. 0 . 1 . 0. 7010 07 6930 .6 67 0~. U 0. 7009 3 . 6902.4 0. 0 . 1 . 0. 7008 2003. 6874.3 0. 1 . 0. 0. 7007 5503 . 6 8 4 6 . 3 0 . 1 . \" ~ 9 . ~ \" 6 . * * 7006 0- 6813 .9 0. 1 . 0. 0. 7005 3 . 6 7 7 7 . 1 1 . 0 ; 0. p.  7 M J ) 6740.4 \" 1 . 67 6 7 . 0~. 7003 3 . 6704.0 0 . 0 . 0. 1 . 7002 0 . 6667.8 0. 0. 0. 1 . 7901 3 . 6631.7 6 . \" 0 . ' 0. 1 . N j 6912 0 . 6588.9 0. 0 . 0. 1 . O 6911 0 . 6553.3 0. 0. U 0 , f_ \"6T10 0 . 6517.9 57 >T. 17 Q~. : 6909 0 . 6482.7 0. 0. 1 . 0. 6903 3 . 5447.6 0. _ ! \u2022 _ 0. _ 0. 6907 8 0 0 0 . 6 4 i 2 . 8 0 . \" ' i . \" \" \" o . o . \" 6906 22270. 6375.9 0. 1 . 0. 0. 6905 1 8337 . 6 3 3 7 . 1 1 . o . 3. g . 69f3* 0 . 62 98.6 1 . 0. 0. 0. : 6903 3 . 6260.2 0. 0 . 0. t . 6902 3 . 6 2 2 2 . 1 0. 0 . 0 . I . 6901 3 . 6184.3 0 . 0 . 0 . \" 1 . 6812 0 . 6131 .9 0. 0 . 0 . 1 . 6811 203. 6094 .6 0 j 0 . U fy, 6810 1103. 6057.5 0. 0 . 1 . 0. 6809 1000. 6020 .6 0. 0. 1 . 0. 6808 2 5 3 . 5984.0 0 . 1 . 0. 0 . 6807 , 0 . 5 9 4 7 . 6 0 . I . \" 0. ~ \" 6 . & 806 0 . 5 9 1 4 . 1 0. 1 . 0. 0 . 68 05 3 . 5 8 8 3 . 6 1 . 0 . 0. 0. 6804 57 5853.2 1. 0 . 67 67 6803 3 . 5822.9 0. 0 . 0. 1 . 6802 0 . 5792.8 0. 0. 0. 1 . 6801 3 . 5 7 6 2 . 9 0 . \" 0 . \" o . ' i . 6712 5 7 3 3 . 1 210 TABLE A-6 EMPLOYMENT STATISTICS IN THE HOUSING MARKET AREA DATA = Y e a r and Month o f E n t r y OEMPLOY = I n s t i t u t i o n a l Employment i n t h e O n t a r i o P o r t i o n QEMPLOY = I n s t i t u t i o n a l Employment i n t h e Quebec P o r t i o n GOVEMP = F e d e r a l Government and L o c a l Government ( S e a s o n a l l y A d j u s t e d ) Employment COMEMP = I n d u s t r i a l and C o m m e r c i a l Employment ( S e a s o n a l l y A d j u s t e d ) TEMPLOY = T o t a l Employed L a b o u r F o r c e UNEMPR = Unemployment R a t e SUNEMPR = Unemployment R a t e ( S e a s o n a l l y A d j u s t e d ) LABOH = L a b o u r F o r c e M I E 7 8 0 6 7 8 0 5 7 8 0 4 7 8 0 3 \" 7 5 0 Z \" 7 8 0 1 7 7 1 2 7 7 1 1 7 7 1 0 7 7 0 9 OEMPLOY 2 3 6 3 8 2 3 6 1 8 2 3 5 9 7 2 3 5 7 7 QEMPLQY 5 7 5 2 5 7 5 2 5 7 5 2 5 7 5 2 ~2~3556~ 2 3 5 3 6 2 3 5 1 5 2 3 4 9 4 2 3 4 7 4 2 3 4 5 3 57 52 5 7 5 2 5 7 5 2 5 7 4 3 5 7 3 3 5 7 2 4 GOVEMP 1 1 4 9 7 8 1 1 4 8 8 8 1 1 5 0 2 9 1 1 4 8 2 6 COHEMP 1 1 3 1 5 8 1134 i i 1 1 3 0 48 1 1 3 4 7 8 TEMPLOY 2 5 7 5 2 6 2 5 7 5 6 9 2 5 7 4 2 6 2 5 7 6 3 4 ~ 7 \" 7 W ~ 7 7 0 7 7 7 0 6 7 7 0 5 7 7 0 4 7 7 0 3 ~77oT~ 7 7 0 1 7 6 1 2 7 6 1 1 7 6 1 0 7 6 0 9 7 6 0 7 7 6 0 6 7 6 6 5 7 6 0 4 7 6 0 3 7M2~ 7 6 0 1 7 5 1 2 7 5 1 1 7 5 1 0 7 5 0 9 1 1 4 5 0 5 1 1 4 1 5 2 1 1 4 2 0 2 1 1 3 8 7 9 1 1 3 5 5 5 1 1 3 3 9 2 ' UNEMPR 7 . 8 0 0 0 0 8 . 4 0 0 0 0 9 . 5 0 0 0 0 9 . 3 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 3 2 2 3 3 0 7 2 3 2 8 7 2 3 2 6 6 2 3 2 4 5 2 3 2 2 4 5 7 1 5 5 6 1 7 5 6 0 8 5 5 9 9 5 5 8 9 5 5 8 0 1 1 3 0 8 9 1 1 : 6 7 9 1 1 2 5 3 2 1 1 2 2 7 3 U 2 0 5 S 1 1 2 0 0 8 2 3 2 0 4 2 3 1 8 3 2 3 1 5 2 2 3 0 9 5 2 3 0 2 7 2 2 9 6 0 1 1 2 9 3 2 1 1 2 2 1 4 1 1 0 6 1 7 1 1 0 5 3 5 1 1 0 4 6 4 1 0 9 9 1 8 1 0 9 8 3 9 1 0 9 3 5 6 1 0 9 3 3 3 1 0 9 3 9 6 1 0 9 0 0 9 1 0 9 2 7 5 2 5 6 7 4 5 2 5 5 6 5 4 2 5 4 0 8 6 25 3 5 5 0 2 5 3 2 2 8 2 5 2 4 8 7 SUNEMPR 7 . 4 4 1 1 9 7 . 1 1 5 5 7 9 . 5 9 0 5 3 9 . 5 0 7 0 6 8 . 8 0 0 0 0 9 . 4 0 0 0 0 9 . 1 0 0 0 0 8 . 9 0 0 0 0 8 . 4 0 0 0 0 8 . 3 0 0 0 0 JLABflU 2 7 8 2 3 0 2 8 3 5 1 2 2 8 4 7 3 3 2 8 4 7 0 0 7 . 6 0 3 4 5 8 . 1 7 3 0 6 9 . 5 5 1 9 0 9 . 0 5 8 3 4 8 . 7 1 3 5 9 3 . 9 3 5 6 8 2 5 2 0 7 6 2 5 0 9 5 9 2 5 0 7 6 0 2 5 0 5 35 2 4 9 8 9 5 2 5 0 0 8 8 5 5 7 1 5 5 6 1 5 5 5 2 5 5 5 7 5 5 5 2 5 5 6 7 7 . 8 0 0 0 0 9 . 0 0 0 0 0 8 . 6 0 0 0 0 8 . 7 0 0 0 0 8 . 8 0 0 3 0 9 . 0 0 0 0 0 2 2 8 9 2 2 3 2 0 4 2 3 1 3 7 2 3 6 6 9 2 3 0 0 2 2 2 9 3 4 1 1 1 7 2 5 1 1 1 3 9 4 1 1 1 4 4 3 U l 3 2 2 1 1 1 0 8 6 1 1 0 7 7 5 1 0 7 0 4 6 1 0 7 2 4 0 1 0 7 5 7 2 10 8 7 7 9 1 0 8 5 2 7 1 0 8 1 6 9 8 . 8 5 1 4 7 8 . 1 9 5 9 0 8 . 2 0 4 3 8 7 . 2 7 0 7 5 8 . 8 8 3 3 6 9 . 2 0 0 3 8 5 5 7 2 5 3 6 3 5 3 6 7 53 72 5 3 7 7 5 3 8 2 2 4 7 5 4 6 2 4 7 3 7 8 2 4 7 7 3 4 2 4 8 7 5 3 2 4 8 2 0 2 2 4 7 4 7 0 1 1 0 6 4 9 U 0 6 3 9 1 1 0 4 9 9 1 1 0 7 0 7 1 1 0 8 6 4 1 1 0 5 3 4 9 . 8 0 0 0 0 8 . 4 0 0 0 0 6 . 6 0 0 0 0 6 . 9 0 0 0 0 5 . 9 0 0 0 0 7 . 4 0 0 3 0 2 2 8 6 7 2 2 7 9 9 2 2 7 3 2 2 2 6 9 3 2 2 6 5 4 2 2 6 1 5 5 3 8 7 5 3 9 2 5 3 9 7 5 3 8 4 5 3 7 2 5 3 5 9 1 0 6 2 9 8 1 0 6 9 8 5 1 0 8 0 3 7 1 6 8 2 0 5 1 0 8 6 2 4 1 0 7 9 8 2 1 1 0 5 7 5 1 1 0 6 2 6 1 1 0 3 3 3 1109 04 1 1 1 0 0 5 1 1 1 0 9 0 2 4 5 4 1 1 2 4 6 1 9 0 2 4 7 0 4 1 2 4 7 3 5 3 2 4 7 8 6 7 2 4 6 8 3 2 8 . 4 6 7 4 7 7 . 3 0 3 5 9 7 . 0 0 0 2 8 7 . 0 2 2 7 5 6 . 1 2 0 3 3 7 . 9 5 5 7 5 7 . 9 0 0 0 0 8 . 7 0 0 0 0 6 . 8 0 0 3 0 6 . 1 0 6 6 6 5 . 8 0 0 0 0 5 . 6 0 0 0 0 1 0 8 3 4 0 1 0 6 7 8 8 1 0 6 1 7 7 1 0 2 0 0 8 1 0 2 6 5 4 1 0 5 6 0 6 2 4 7 1 7 0 2 4 5 6 0 5 24 5 1 3 9 2 4 0 9 8 9 2 4 1 6 8 5 2 4 4 6 7 1 8 . 1 0 0 0 0 6 . 2 0 0 0 0 8 . 2 0 0 0 0 9 . 3 0 0 0 0 9 . 4 0 0 3 0 8 . 2 0 0 0 0 8 . 9 6 4 9 5 7 . 9 2 2 7 0 6 . 4 8 7 1 9 6 . 6 1 9 5 4 5 . 8 5 5 2 7 5 . 7 2 4 5 8 6 . 9 9 8 6 3 5 . 3 9 0 7 4 8 . 5 9 7 3 1 9 . 4 6 5 4 6 9 . 7 5 1 0 4 8 . 8 2 8 0 3 2 7 7 8 7 3 2 7 8 4 0 9 2 8 1 2 3 0 2 7 8 9 1 5 2 7 7 3 9 9 2 7 7 2 6 2 2 7 6 5 5 5 2 7 3 3 6 4 2 7 3 1 7 2 2 7 0 1 7 9 2 7 4 2 6 0 2 7 5 4 2 8 2 7 0 4 4 6 2 6 6 8 6 9 2 6 6 3 8 2 2 6 7 5 4 2 2 6 4 3 8 4 2 6 8 8 9 2 2 6 9 5 7 9 2 6 7 3 7 4 2 6 4 1 7 8 2 6 4 8 3 7 2 6 3 2 8 3 2 6 1 8 2 0 2 6 5 7 7 1 2 5 9 5 9 9 2 6 8 4 9 0 2 6 6 1 8 5 2 6 7 7 9 8 _2\u00a38J_52_ 7 5 0 8 7 5 0 7 7 5 0 6 7 5 0 5 7 5 0 4 7 5 0 3 ~75ff2~ 7 5 0 1 7 4 1 2 741 I 7 4 1 0 7 4 0 9 7 W 7 4 0 7 7 4 0 6 7 4 0 5 2 2 5 7 7 2 2 1 5 0 2 2 1 1 1 2 2 0 7 2 2 2 0 3 3 2 1 9 9 4 5 3 4 7 5 1 2 8 5 1 1 5 5 1 0 3 5 0 9 0 5 0 7 8 ~ZT9\"56~ 2 1 9 1 6 2 1 8 7 8 2 1 8 1 1 2 1 7 4 4 2 1 6 7 7 -T0~55\" 5 0 5 3 5 0 4 0 5 0 3 6 5 0 3 2 5 0 2 8 1 1 0 6 7 1 1 0 9 9 7 5 1 0 9 6 0 0 1 0 9 1 6 7 1 0 9 9 3 7 1 0 8 5 7 5 1 0 6 0 5 0 1 0 5 8 6 1 1 0 5 8 i 6 1 0 7 0 7 6 1 0 6 0 5 9 1 0 5 J 9 6 2 1 6 1 1 2 1 1 6 0 2 1 2 9 3 2 1 2 2 6 T 0 8 0 5 1 1 0 7 8 1 1 1 0 7 2 8 8 1 0 6 9 5 8 1 0 5 5 9 4 1 0 6 2 9 1 ~ 5 0 2 T \" 4 8 6 5 4 8 6 1 4 8 5 7 1 0 6 9 1 7 1 0 7 1 7 5 1 0 7 5 0 9 1 0 8 2 1 5 1 0 8 4 6 5 1 0 8 7 9 3 1 0 5 6 9 5 1 0 5 0 1 9 1 0 4 3 5 9 1 0 3 7 8 9 2 4 4 6 4 5 2 4 3 1 1 2 2 4 2 6 4 2 2 4 3 4 17 2 4 2 1 1 9 2 4 1 0 4 3 2 4 1 9 8 9 2 4 1 9 5 5 2 4 1 7 1 4 2 4 2 0 2 0 2 4 1 8 3 5 2 4 1 7 8 9 7 . 0 0 0 3 0 7 . 4 0 0 0 0 5 . 5 0 0 0 0 4 . 5 0 0 0 0 5 . 3 0 0 0 0 5 . 2 0 0 0 0 7 . 9 4 3 5 2 6 . 7 3 8 9 5 5 . 2 4 6 9 9 4 . 5 9 3 3 4 5 . 3 5 0 5 1 5 . 3 1 5 7 8 1 0 7 9 7 6 1 0 6 7 9 7 1 0 6 4 3 3 1 0 5 5 0 7 2 4 0 3 0 7 2 3 8 0 4 2 2 3 6 9 4 6 2 3 5 3 7 9 5 . 3 0 0 0 0 5 . 7 0 0 0 0 3 . 3 0 0 0 0 3 . 9 6 6 6 6 3 . 4 0 0 0 0 3 . 5 0 0 0 0 3 . 6 0 0 0 0 3 . 7 0 0 0 0 3 . 4 0 0 0 0 4.10 0 0 6 4 . 5 7 9 3 5 4 . 9 5 5 0 0 3 . 5 0 0 1 4 3 . 9 6 9 38 3 . 5 2 6 9 7 3 . 7 6 3 0 6 4 . 0 8 5 2 9 3 . 3 6 9 4 3 3 . 2 4 3 5 9 4 . 4 4 927 2 5 5 7 5 5 2 6 0 6 7 9 2 5 6 0 7 9 2 5 5 9 1 4 2 5 5 9 0 6 2 5 4 5 7 6 2 5 3 6 0 2 2 5 4 5 7 2 2 5 0 4 8 2 2 5 2 0 2 4 2 5 0 6 7 7 2 5 1 2 5 7 2 5 0 5 4 3 2 4 6 3 4 2 2 4 4 8 8 9 2 4 6 3 4 0 ( DATE QEMPIOY QEMPLOY GOVEMP COMEMP TEMPLOY UNEMPR SUNEMPR LABOH 7 4 0 4 2 1 1 5 9 4 8 5 3 1 0 3 2 3 1 1 0 4 5 2 0 2 3 3 7 6 3 3 . 6 0 0 0 0 3 . 6 3 4 3 1 2 4 2 5 7 9 , 7 4 0 3 2 1 0 9 2 4 8 4 9 1 0 2 6 6 2 1 0 4 1 0 3 2 3 2 7 0 5 3 . 0 0 0 0 0 3 . 0 6 6 79 2 4 0 0 6 8 7 4 0 ? 2 1 0 2 6 4 8 4 6 1 0 2 2 6 7 1 0 4 5 8 9 2 1 2 7 2 7 4 . 2 0 0 0 0 3 . 5 2 3 7 2 2 4 1 4 9 1 7 4 0 1 2 0 9 5 9 4 8 4 2 1 0 1 5 5 5 1 0 4 1 3 9 2 3 1 4 9 5 3 . 4 0 0 0 0 2 . 9 5 6 2 1 2 3 8 5 4 7 7 3 1 Z 2 0 8 9 2 4 8 3 3 1 0 1 1 3 6 1 0 2 8 1 5 2 2 9 6 8 1 2 . 3 0 0 0 0 2 . 4 3 9 4 9 2 3 5 4 2 4 7 3 1 1 2 0 9 1 2 4 8 2 5 1 0 0 4 6 1 1 0 0 1 2 7 2 2 6 3 2 6 2 . 4 0 0 0 0 2 . 4 4 2 7 0 2 3 1 9 9 2 7 3 1 0 2 0 9 3 1 4 8 1 3 9 9 9 7 5 1 0 0 7 8 0 2 2 6 4 9 9 3 . 1 0 0 0 0 3 . 2 1 5 7 7 2 3 4 0 2 5 7 3 0 9 2 0 9 5 1 4 8 0 0 99 319 9 9 2 9 5 2 2 4 3 6 5 2 . 3 0 0 0 0 3 . 0 1 4 4 5 2 3 1 3 3 8 7 3 0 8 2 0 9 7 1 4 7 8 7 9 37 39 9 8 6 5 7 2 2 3 1 5 3 3 . 4 0 0 9 0 3 . 3 5 3 3 3 2 3 2 1 0 9 7 3 0 7 2 1 1 1 6 4 5 8 5 9 8 2 2 1 1 0 0 6 1 8 2 2 4 5 4 0 4 . 8 0 0 0 0 4 . 3 7 1 1 5 2 3 4 8 0 3 7 3 0 6 2 1 1 36 4 5 7 2 9 7 8 12 100201 2 2 3 7 2 1 4 . 5 0 0 0 0 4 . 2 9 2 9 9 2 3 3 7 5 6 7 3 0 5 2 1 1 5 6 4 5 5 9 9 7 0 0 7 9 9 0 4 6 2 2 1 7 6 9 2 . 0 0 0 0 0 2 . 1 7 0 3 7 2 2 6 5 3 9 7 3 0 4 2 1 1 7 5 4 5 4 7 9 6 4 0 7 9 8 3 0 0 2 2 0 4 2 9 2 . 6 0 0 0 0 2 . 6 2 4 7 8 2 2 6 1 7 1 7 3 0 3 2 1 1 9 5 4 5 3 4 9 5 9 8 6 9 7 3 7 8 2 1 9 0 9 1 \" \" \" \" \" 3 . 3 0 0 0 0 \" 3 . 3 7 3 4 7 2 2 6 7 4 2 7 3 0 2 2 1 2 1 5 4 5 2 1 9 5 1 9 7 9 6 4 3 9 2 1 7 3 7 2 3 . 8 0 0 0 0 3 . 2 8 3 3 1 2 2 4 7 5 1 7 3 0 1 2 1 2 3 4 4 5 0 9 9 4 4 1 9 9 5 0 3 0 2 1 5 1 9 2 4 . 9 0 0 0 0 4 . 2 5 0 4 2 2 2 4 7 5 8 J 2 1 2 2 1 2 5 4 4 4 9 6 9 3 2 5 9 9 3 6 18 2 1 2 6 2 7 5 . 1 0 0 3 0 5 . 4 0 9 3 0 2 2 4 7 3 7 7 2 1 1 2 1 2 5 4 4 4 9 3 9 2 4 2 3 9 3 7 3 2 2 1 1 9 0 2 5 - 2 0 0 0 0 5 . 2 9 2 5 1 2 2 3 7 4 3 7 2 1 0 2 1 2 5 4 4 4 9 0 9 1 6 5 8 9 3 3 4 5 2 1 0 7 4 7 4 . 9 0 0 0 0 5 . 0 8 2 9 9 2 2 2 0 3 3 7 2 0 9 2 1 2 5 1 4 4 8 7 9 0 8 9 5 9 2 4 2 1 2 0 9 0 5 6 4 . 7 0 0 0 0 5 . 0 5 9 9 7 2 2 0 1 9 8 M 7 2 0 8 2 1 2 5 3 4 4 8 5 9 0 2 8 3 9 2 4 44 2 0 8 4 6 5 4 . 1 0 0 0 0 4 . 6 5 2 6 9 2 1 8 6 3 9 7 2 0 7 2 1 1 1 7 40 0 3 8 9 9 9 9 9 3 2 5 3 2 0 8 3 7 1 4 . 3 0 0 0 0 3 . 9 1 5 9 2 2 1 6 8 6 3 7 2 0 6 2 1117 4 0 0 0 8 9 6 7 0 9 2 5 5 1 2 0 7 3 3 7 6 . 9 0 0 0 0 6 . 5 9 2 5 9 2 2 1 9 4 7 7 2 0 5 2 1 1 1 6 3 9 9 7 8 9 5 6 2 9 3 4 6 4 2 0 8 1 3 9 5 . 0 0 0 0 0 5 . 4 2 5 9 4 2 2 0 0 8 0 7 2 0 4 2 1 1 1 6 3 9 9 4 8 3 8 1 2 9 2 2 7 3 2 0 6 1 9 5 5 . 6 0 0 0 0 5 - 6 5 3 3 7 2 1 8 5 5 0 7 2 0 3 2 1 1 1 6 3 9 9 1 ' 8 8 4 6 9 9 2 3 9 9 2 0 5 9 7 5 5 . 1 0 0 3 0 ' 5 . 2 1 3 5 5 2 1 7 3 0 5 7 2 0 2 2 1 1 1 6 3 9 8 9 8 T 8 3 5 9 1 3 2 9 2 0 4 2 6 9 5 . 4 0 0 0 0 4 . 5 5 5 7 5 2 1 4 2 6 6 7 2 0 1 2 1 1 1 5 39 86 8 7 3 4 2 9 1 7 3 5 2 0 4 1 7 8 6 . 7 0 0 3 0 5 . 8 2 5 4 8 2 1 6 8 0 8 7 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 5 3 9 8 3 8 5 7 3 1 9 1 6 5 2 2 0 3 4 8 1 4 . 6 0 0 0 0 4 . 8 7 5 9 8 2 1 3 9 1 8 7 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 5 3 9 7 9 8 5 1 7 3 9 1 6 6 3 2 0 2 9 3 0 5 . 7 0 0 0 0 5 . 3 0 1 4 1 2 1 5 4 2 9 7 1 1 0 2 1 1 1 6 3 9 7 5 8 5 6 7 3 9 1 7 2 0 2 0 2 4 8 5 5 . 1 0 0 0 0 5 . 2 9 0 4 6 2 1 3 7 9 5 7 1 0 9 2 1 1 1 6 3 9 7 0 8 > l 1 2 ' 9 1 3 5 9 2 0 1 5 5 7 4 . 6 0 0 3 0 4 . 9 5 2 31 2 1 2 0 5 9 7 1 0 8 2 1 1 1 7 39 66 8 4 2 2 5 9 0 8 2 9 2 0 0 1 3 7 3. 6 0 0 0 0 4 . 0 9 5 2 9 2 0 9 6 6 1 7 1 0 7 2 0 7 9 5 3 8 6 3 8 3 5 1 1 9 0 3 1 9 1984 88 5 . 8 0 0 9 0 3 . 2 9 1 9 0 2 0 9 5 5 6 7 1 0 6 2 0 7 95 3 8 5 9 8 2 8 8 7 9 0 5 1 4 1 9 8 0 5 5 5 . 8 0 0 0 0 5 . 5 3 3 1 9 2 0 9 6 5 6 7 1 0 5 2 0 7 9 6 3 8 5 4 8 1 9 5 5 8 9 1 3 6 1 9 5 7 4 1 4 . 3 0 0 0 0 4 . 6 5 6 3 0 2 0 5 3 2 2 7 1 0 4 2 0 7 9 6 3 8 5 0 8 0 7 7 9 8 9 5 1 5 1 9 4 9 4 0 4 . 1 0 0 0 0 4 . 1 3 9 0 7 2 0 3 3 5 7 7 1 0 3 2 0 7 9 7 3 8 4 5 7 9 9 6 8 8 9 6 8 3 i 9 4 2 9 4 4 . 3 0 0 0 0 4 . 3 9 5 7 4 2 0 3 2 2 7 7 1 0 2 2 0 7 9 7 3 8 4 2 7 9 2 0 7 8 9 5 8 3 1 9 3 4 2 9 4 . 6 0 0 0 0 3 . 9 7 4 5 3 2 0 1 4 3 5 7 1 0 1 2 0 7 98 3 8 3 7 7 3 2 7 8 8 8 6 9 9 1 9 1 6 1 2 6 . 2 0 0 0 0 5 . 3 9 0 7 4 2 0 2 5 3 0 7 0 1 2 2 0 7 9 8 3 8 3 3 7 7 4 6 7 8 9 8 13 1 9 1 9 U 5 . 3 O O 0 0 5 . 5 2 1 4 3 2 0 3 3 4 2 7 0 1 1 2 0 7 9 4 3 8 3 4 7 6 5 6 5 8 9 9 7 0 1 9 1 1 6 3 2 . 8 0 0 0 0 2 . 3 4 9 8 1 1 9 6 7 7 1 7 0 1 0 2 0 7 9 0 3 8 3 6 7 5 7 3 3 8 9 5 3 4 1 8 9 8 9 3 3 . 3 0 0 3 0 3 . 4 2 3 2 4 1 9 6 6 2 4 7 0 0 9 2 0 7 8 6 3 8 3 7 7 4 7 1 7 8 9 2 3 4 1 8 8 5 7 4 3 . 8 0 0 0 0 4 . 0 9 1 0 4 \" 1 9 6 6 1 8 7 0 0 8 2 0 7 8 2 3 3 3 8 7 4 4 8 1 8 8 7 7 9 1 8 7 8 8 0 3 . 3 0 0 0 0 3 . 7 4 4 8 5 1 9 5 1 3 9 7 0 0 7 2 0 3 4 4 3 6 5 6 7 4 8 2 7 8 8 9 4 5 1 8 7 7 7 3 3 . 2 0 0 0 0 2 - 9 1 4 1 0 1 9 3 4 0 9 roob 2 0 3 4 0 3 6 5 7 7 1 7 3 1 8 8 3 5 5 1 8 7 0 8 3 3 . 0 0 0 0 0 2 . 8 6 1 9 9 1 9 2 5 9 5 7 0 0 5 2 0 3 3 7 3 6 5 8 7 4 7 0 4 8 9 0 1 0 1 8 7 7 0 9 3.3 0 0 0 0 3 . 5 8 1 1 2 1 9 4 6 3 0 7 0 0 4 2 0 3 3 3 3 6 6 0 7 4 7 7 6 8 7 9 1 2 1 8 6 6 8 2 3. 7 0 0 0 0 3 . 7 3 5 2 6 1 9 3 9 2 5 7 0 0 3 2 0 3 2 9 3 6 6 1 7 4 8 1 8 . 8 8 1 9 6 \" 1 8 7 0 0 4 3. 7 0 0 0 0 3 . 7 8 2 3 8 1 9 4 3 5 5 213 \u00ab-l 0 0 Wf| ON C O 0 3 CO O J Kl COj I V PO \u2014\u2022 CSJ ON ON ON ~* PO WT- ON fw \u00ab#| ON l\\J H . WT ON CJ k Ov Pw f\\J 0 0 ^ ON; k Pw CO ON ON eo eo eo eo lO (>>\u2022 00 in in vC o ro -4 W* t>- tC e\u00bb vB o K\u00bb \u2022cr in N-CO o kO i \u2022M \u2022\u00bb o C>> \u00bb CC N. 00 vC VC K. CM \u00bb-* a oo CO CO OO CC CO OO CO oo CO CO co i n wT. 03 03 OJ *-< Kfi eo isj PO K M \u00abff CO H Wf\" CO O *-< CO \u00abfH 0> ON CO CO fw- CO Pw Pw 03 CJ PW ON O Pw! \u00a9 K\"> PO- V3 ON O wf ON' fO O Pw CO CO 03 fN-p*. Pw Pw Pw k k pw in OD o eo or PO co Pw U 3 CO PO 07 PO C J ^ti Pw Pw Pw' Pw O Pw O O I i n . cv P O Pwl O ' ON * H CM] ^ vfi N 4 * 4 CO - * -8*1 ! ON m UD . eo o o | \u00abM PwiPO CD U 3 PO V 3 \u2022HSlVJ CO l\\J IO rV. in?*-* ON PW N . or P O ; ON \u00a9 wr \u00a9 o r <-\u00ab>Pw co Pw m po m ] PO eo P O o ro t\\jJ in i n P O PO 03 WT O PW (O r o eo i n 03 o in \u00ab* CO fO CVJ ON 03 \u00ab-I ON 03 PO in PO o in \u00ab-4 rwf or i n ON ,\u2022 w* w* wrj O W PO ON ON H m c o i * co m \u2022 r t\\l * H i o CD \u00ab-< \u00ab-\u00ab \u00abH -8*1 (\\i i n i n po ON po *- i rw i n PO \u2014* \u00a9 ' CN O \u00ab-\u00bb P O wr r o i r o ON vo eo rw rO'OD k O N C O N O CQ o i n in.or *o ON eo in coio3 ON rw co wr i n i n ON Pw O N ' CO o i n cv wr ON ON I O P O PO w r i i n PO CJ CO CJ \u00ab-4 IV *H \u00abH CJ PO c o o O O O O O O \u00a9I \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9I \\\u00a3> P\u00ab\"l \u00a9 ^ \u00a9 \u00a9 O O O \u00a9 o \u00a9 \u00a9 \u2022 \u00a9 \u00a9 o \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 : \u00a9 o \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 ; \u00a9 O \u00a9 Pw PO C J } * - \u00ab C J C J ro C J r o ; pj ro ro \u00a9 \u00a9 o o \u00a9 \u00a9 o \u00a9 \u00a9 \u2022 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 C \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 : \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 C J ec H I H ON in \u20220* CJ PO; P O PO P O \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 > \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 O O O O O \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 ' \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 o o o \u00a9 \u00a9 o ON \u00a9 O N . PO <pH ON PO wr PO;PO PO I O \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 O O \u00a9 O O O o o o \u00a9 \u00a9 ; \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9I \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 po \u00ab-H m in ON C J P O po i ro wr r o \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 ! \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 O O \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9\u2022;\u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 : \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 Pw P O wr i \u00a9 t v i n wr wr i o \u00a9 \u00a9 \u2022 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 O ' \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 r o po c v * * * PO 'PO C J t\\J i v \u00ab-\u00ab;iv c j ro i P O wr ? po i v r o 8 ON ' CO PO 1 COU3 PO < U3 U3 Pw CO CO CO 1  CO U3 CO k CO; i| ON ON PO )jPw U3 Pw : i cO co CO; CO U3 m 0 3 or or PO c j CO CO CO CO *H W7; w* C J eo; Pw Pw C J **< CO CO CO: Pw \u00a9 k PO U3 ON \u00a9 o CO CO CO ro C J P O -o r iff O J i v cv wr; eo i n \u00a9 i v \u00a9 i n C J cv o co co co co P O PO ON co eo \u2022\u2022 wr wr r o C V P O i n pw ro \u00a9 wr * r o r o 03 Pw *-* ON ON w* c j ro ro jwr i n PO co ro ro i n i n 03 o r ON ro \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 o ON PO cv i v r o I V ON CO co >w Pw 03 03 03 or or i n i * r \u00a9 C V \u2022H' fw \u00a9 03\\v* CV \u00a9 O <<->4 pw oD m m 03 03 03 03 :3 .UJ i n ' o r rw co| O Ov MV IVI eo Pw \u00a9 ON I CO CO CD CO \u00a9 \u00a9 W -H C J pw PO ec pw ON *<4 i n i \u00a9 ro r o ec cc CD pw u3 i n CO CO CD '<CO CO CO e > \u00ab ^ H M O O - O P W \u00a9 O - P w PO Pw \u00a9 \u2022# C> PO CO \u00bb CO tw ON ON O ON CO CO U3 x** - r pw \u00a9 \u00a9 co in CJ i n ON;\u00ab-t U3 03 ON \u00abH 9 \\ N w ' V iin m \u2022\u00bb m wr or \u00a9 VO CO CO CD CO | i v \u00a9 co ON L V m cv \u00ab3 < t^ eo m PO i v r u ^ ON C J i n us \\ D U3 U3 U3 03 03 03 03 r o po ro r o |pw eo ON \u00bbo or i n 103 U3 io r o CV C J 03 0 3 03 tw Pw Pw Iro P O PO po ro po C J I V ON P O P O PO tv o \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 c j i v C J i v cv cv \u00ab-\u00ab \u00a9 \u00a9 <M \u00ab-4 \u00a9 \u00a9 O ON Pw Pw 03 03 \u00a9 ON o m i n o3 |pw i n P O ON pw m cv i v cv i n i n i n o \u00a9 \u00a9 co \u00a9 co icv IV CV \u00bb-* \u2014 w I\u00a9 ON tO Pw U3 i n \u2022 - \u2022 O O O O O JON ON ON ON O* ON kfi 03 03 03 U3 03 PO PO \u00a9i\u00a9 ON H k M \u2022Mi(V) k H * PO:\u00a9 Pw ON PO CV C J , \u00a9 ON CD CO CO CO Is. 03 PO;tO CO ON 03 I V 03 ^ CO ON Pw PO I CO ON \u00ab\u2014< ON ON ON ON ON \u00a9 I V or I V t w Pw \u00a9 H N i n or i n pw \u2022* \u00ab\u2022*\u2022 03 ;U3 i n ON \u00a9 CO CO JCC Pw Pw C J \u00a9 \u00a9 i n PO m iw (ON ro i n e o ! t v 03 i n ;V3 \u2022 * C J eo Pw a-I'lVJ \u00a9 ON \u00a9 \u00a9 H I eo i n i v r v rw, m ^ r \u00a9 ON \u00a9 PO m \u00a9 pw \u00bbM ON CO ' \u00a9 03 1 0 PO i\\j f \\ j pj Cv fV PO i v u > rxj to | i n *-4 K . \u00a9 ( v WP I V SO H K . ItV M I U -4 *>4 O 03 ON rvi 'co i n i n !PO or \u00a9 \u00a9 :in c o \u00bb o . w. 03 03 03 iw \u00a9 ON \u00a9 m I V C J I V C J P O cv (po ro po ro i 03 Pw Pw \u00a9 \u00a9 CO PO _ t ON PW m CJ in in - * \u2022 * ^ r in \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 CC \u00a9 i n ' ro \u00a9 P O [cv \u00abM <\u2022>\u00ab \u2022 \u00a9 ON ON w rw m wf IPO PO PO >PO PO PO \\ 6 o * k H i n eo m H k c i n o3 pw or m o3 O CO CO k k k CO PO ON WP ON Pw \u00a9 \u00a9 Pw Pw U3 Pw wp wr <r -or wr wr PO PO PO PO PO PO | m PO i v r o \u00ab-i ON \u00a9 ON \u00a9 ON \u00a9 \u00a9 lor or in ^ r o co ro r o r o po ro p. (vi H N H p o c o k \\fi in ( O O O O . M r t i H O O O O O ON ON O N O N \u00a9 \u00a9 j \u00a9 O D \u00a9 CO CC CO |U3 03 03 03 03 03 J03 03 03 03 03 03 O W P C O C J U3^-\u00abPwCV P w O WP ON Pw PO ON u3 IV 03 I O PO 0 3 C J 0 3 O 0 3 P w P w \u00a9 ON \u00a9 |w rw 03 wr ro cv k k k k fw pw Pw Pw P w 0 3 0 3 0 3 i v i n i v \\** i v P O or ICO I V CJ I V fro po PO r o n \u00a9 i n w \u00a9 wr jCJ <M W \u00a9 103 03 03 03 o r r o c o * * i v ^ j O O N \u00a9 P w u 3 i n i o r p o C J \u00bb - i \u00a9 O O \u00a9 tH <\u00bb\u2022* !\u2014I \u00a9 o o o \u00a9 o \u00a9 o \u00a9 ffiaoffico k k k k k k k k k l O 3 O 3 O 3 O 3 O 3 03!03O3 0 3 O 3 O 3 03 KO 03 03 U3 214 . TABLE A-7 MORTGAGE INTEREST RATES, MORTGAGE APPROVALS, AND PRICE INDEX . DATE = Y e a r and Month o f E n t r y GMR = M o r t g a g e I n t e r e s t R a t e (Average) f o r New Houses F i n a n c e d Under t h e N a t i o n a l H o u s i n g A c t , by A p p r o v e d L e n d e r s CONVMR = C o n v e n t i o n a l M o r t g a g e I n t e r e s t R a t e (Average) CMHCMRT = Government (CMHC) M o r t g a g e A p p r o v a l s ( $ M i l l i o n s ) f o r P r o f i t M o t i v a t e d New H o u s i n g i n Canada ALMRT = CONVMRT = MGNEP = A p p r o v e d L e n d e r M o r t g a g e A p p r o v a l s ( $ M i l l i o n s ) f o r New H o u s i n g i n Canada C o n v e n t i o n a l M o r t g a g e A p p r o v a l s ( $ M i l l i o n s ) f o r New H o u s i n g i n Canada G r o s s N a t i o n a l E x p e n d i t u r e P r i c e Index f o r Canada DAH GMR CONVMR CfiHCMRX M M CONVMRT MGilER 7 9 1 2 1 2 . 9 3 1 3 . 53 0 . 4 2 . 0 1 5 2 . 0 2 0 9 . 9 7 9 1 1 1 2 . 6 0 \" 1 4 . 45 * \" 0 . 24 0 3 1 . 6 2 7 9 . 6 2 08\" . 3 7 9 1 0 1 1 . 5 8 1 3 . 50 0 . 3 9 0 2 6 . 0 4 0 2 . 0 2 0 6 . 7 7 9 0 9 1 1 . 5 1 1 2 . 25 0 . t o o 2 2 . 0 3 8 0 . 0 2 0 5 . 1 7 9 0 8 1 1 . 15 1 1 . 80 0 . 4 6 0 2 0 . 0 4 7 4 . 0 2 03 . 5 7 9 0 7 1 0 . 9 5 1 1 . 20 0 . 190 1 6 . 0 4 7 8 . 0 2 0 1 . 9 7 9 0 6 1 0 - 9 2 1 1 . 16 0 . 2 3 0 1 3 . 0 4 6 9 . 0 2 0 0 . 4 7 9 0 5 1 0 . 7 7 1 1 . 06 \" \" 0 . 140 1 1 . 0 \" 4 4 0 . . . . . . 1 9 8 .8i \" ' 7 9 0 4 1 0 - 3 8 1 1 . 05 0 . 04 0 7 . 0 3 1 1 . 0 1 9 6 . 6 7 9 0 J 1 0 . 9 7 1 1 . 11 0 . 0 4 0 7 2 . 0 2 5 3 . 0 194 . 2 7 9 0 2 l o - 9 S 1 1 . 25 0 . 3 5 . 0 1 9 1 . 0 1 9 2 . 1 7 9 0 1 l l . 5 3 1 1 . 28 0 . 0 0 4 6 5 . 0 1 5 4 . 0 1 9 0 . 2 7 8 1 2 1 0 . 9 7 1 1 . 53 0 . 1 8 2 1 4 3 . 0 2 1 9 . 0 1 8 8 . 1 7 8 1 1 1 0 . 6 5 1 1 . 25 2 . 6 2 4 1 7 9 . 0 \" \" 3 0 5 . 6 i 8 6 ; 3 \" 7 8 1 0 1 0 . 3 8 1 0 . 95 0 . 6 1 4 1 6 8 . 0 3 3 4 . 0 1 8 5 . 4 7 8 0 9 1 0 . 19 1 0 . 67 6 . 6 5 3 1 8 8 . 0 3 5 3 . 0 1 8 4 . 9 \/\u2022808 1 0 . 17 1 0 . 31 0 . 4 2 0 2 2 4 . 0 3 0 6 . 0 1 8 4 . 1 7 8 0 7 1 0 . 2 0 1 0 . 31 0 . 3 6 6 3 5 4 . 0 2 5 9 . 0 1 8 3 . 3 7 8 0 6 1 0 . 16 1 0 . 32 3 . 3 7 6 1 8 3 . 0 3 0 6 . 0 1 82 . 7 7 8 0 5 1 0 . 2 1 1 0 . 43 2 ; 5 0 5 ' 2 0 8 . 0 o~ 1 8 2 . 6 7 8 0 4 1 0 . 15 1 0 . 41 0 . 4 1 7 1 8 0 . 0 3 6 5 . 0 1 8 0 . 7 1\u20141 7 8 0 3 1 0 . 15 1 0 . 33 1. 1 8 3 1 2 4 . 0 2 3 8 . 0 1 7 9 . 1 7 8 0 2 1 0 . 1 4 1'). 31 0 . 0 3 2 6 5 . 0 1 5 1 . 0 1 7 7 . 9 7 8 0 1 1 0 . 15 1 0 . 32 0 . 0 6 2 7 2 . 0 1 4 3 . 0 177 . 0 7 7 1 2 1 0 . 16 1 0 . 3 3 1 4 . 3 4 5 4 6 0 . 0 1 7 5 . 0 1 7 6 . 1 7 7 1 1 1 0 . 2 5 \u2014 1 0 . 34 2 . 8 7 9 ~ 4 0 0 . 0 \"22 2 . 0 - ~ . 2 7 7 1 0 1 0 . 2 5 1 0 . 34 1 3 . 2 0 2 3 5 7 . 0 2 2 7 . 0 174 . 6 7 7 0 9 1 0 . 2 1 1 0 . 32 5 . 4 2 4 4 2 0 . 0 2 4 3 . 0 1 7 4 . 1 770 8 t o . 2 8 1 0 . 3 3 4 . 0 3 2 3 7 1 . 0 2 1 4 . 0 1 7 3 . 5 7 7 0 7 1 0 . 2 9 1 0 . 40 7 . 5 3 5 3 5 7 . 0 2 2 5 . 0 172 . 6 7 7 0 6 1 0 . 2 5 1 0 . 35 1 2 . 6 6 3 3 9 7 . 0 2 9 5 . 0 171 . 8 7 7 0 5 1 0 . 19 1 0 . 38 ' \" ' ' 7 . 1 7 2 ' 3 5 7 . 0 2 8 4 . 0 ~ \" \u2014 ..... '\"\u2022 1 7 0 . 9 \"\" \u2014 \u2022 ... . . . 7 7 0 4 1 0 . 3 0 1 0 . 25 0 . 8 1 4 2 6 9 . 0 3 5 6 . 0 1 6 9 . 7 7 7 0 3 1 0 . 2 1 1 0 . 25 0 . 9 1 3 2 9 0 - 0 2 2 0 . 0 1 6 8 . 2 7 7 0 2 1 0 . 72 1 0 . cy 0 . S 4 7 1 4 1 . 0 1 2 5 . 0 1 6 7 . 0 7 7 0 1 1 1 . 17 1 0 . 75 4 . 0 0 5 1 3 5 . 0 9 9 . 0 1 6 5 . 4 7 6 1 2 t i - 18 1 1 . 27 1 8 . 0 4 0 3 2 5 . 0 1 6 7 . 0 1 66 . 1 7 6 1 1 l l . 4 9 1 1 . 55 8 ; 7 2 9 \" \" \" 3 1 6 . 3 188.\" 6 \" ' \" ~ 1 6 5 . 5 -7 6 1 0 1 1 . 8 6 1 1 . 60 u. 6 1 7 3 1 8 . 0 1 6 9 . 0 164 . 3 7 6 0 9 1 1 . 7 5 1 1 . 76 9 . 1 7 5 3 0 8 . 0 1 5 8 . 0 1 6 2 . 7 \u2022 6 0 8 1 1 . 7 4 1 1 . 8 J 7 . 2 7 0 3 7 1 . 0 1 7 8 . 0 161 . 5 7 6 0 7 1 1 . 8 6 1 1 . 86 8 . 3 0 7 3 1 1 . 0 2 1 6 . 0 1 60 . 9 7 6 0 6 1 1 . 91 1 1 . 91 1 1. 9 6 1 3 0 4 . 0 2 3 9 . 0 1 6 0 . 7 7 6 0 5 1 1 . 8 5 1 1 . 9? - \" ' \u2014 1 0 . 7 6 7 3 5 8 . 0 ~ \" 2 5 3 . o ' 1 6 0 . 0\" \u2014 -7 6 0 4 1 1 . 7 8 1 ? . 01 3 . 8 1 0 2 5 0 . 0 2 9 3 . 0 1 5 8 . 4 7 6 0 3 1 1 . 5 8 1 1 . 90 1. 7 6 9 2 0 2 . 0 2 8 2 . 0 1 5 6 . 4 7 6 0 2 1 1 . 7 4 1 1 . BO 0 . 8 3 9 1 0 3 . 0 2 0 4 . 0 1 5 4 . 9 7 6 0 1 1 1 . 7 5 1 1 . 84 0 . 054 8 0 . 0 1 5 6 . 0 1 5 3 . 9 7 5 1 2 1 1 . 89 1 1 . 89 7 . 8 8 2 5 7 7 . 0 1 7 3 . 0 1 5 3 . 2 7511 1 1 . 9 0 1 1 . 97 1 7 . 5 5 0 \"\" 2 1 1 . 0 1 5 2 . 0 1 5 2 . 2 DATE GMR CONVMR CMHCMRT AJLMRT CONVMRT MGNEP 7 5 1 0 1 1 . 5 5 1 2 . 15 4 4 . 0 9 8 2 4 1 . 0 1 9 4 . 0 1 5 0 . 9 7 5 0 9 1 1 . 3 2 1 1 . 9 4 6 5 . 1 8 5 1 9 9 - 0 1 9 8 . 6 1 4 9 . 6 7 5 0 8 1 1 . 1 6 1 1 . 5 2 1 2 0 . 1 3 4 2 1 3 . 0 2 2 0 . 0 1 4 8 . 4 7 5 0 7 1 0 . 9 0 1 1 . 3 5 7 6 . 9 4 6 1 9 5 - 0 2 1 5 . 0 1 4 6 . 9 7 5 0 6 1 0 . 6 3 1 1 . 2 3 8 1 . 9 4 7 2 1 9 . 0 2 4 6 . 0 1 4 5 . 1 7 5 0 5 1 0 . 5 2 1 0 . 9 9 1 2 7 . 1 8 7 1 7 4 . 0 34 4 . 0 1 4 3 . 6 7 5 0 4 1 0 . 4 0 1 0 . 67 8 8 . 3 5 0 1 4 8 . 0 32 6 . 0 1 4 2 . 7 7 5 0 3 1 1 . 0 4 1 0 . 6 5 4 1 : 5 3 8 7 5 . 0 \" \" \u2022 1 5 5 . 0 1 4 1 . 9 7 5 0 2 1 1 . 0 2 1 0 . 9 5 2 6 . 6 0 2 2 1 - 0 9 4 . 0 1 4 0 . 9 7 5 0 1 1 1 . 6 8 1 1 . 8 1 2 7 . 3 1 0 2 5 . 0 5 5 . 0 1 3 9 . 9 7 4 1 2 1 1 . 7 5 1 1 . 8 8 2 7 . SbU 3 0 . 0 6 2 . 0 1 3 9 . 0 7 4 1 1 1 1 . 8 0 1 ? . 0 0 1 1 . 9 2 0 5 3 . 0 8 2 . 0 1 3 8 . 0 7 4 1 0 1 1 . 6 4 1 2 . 05 4 5 . 2 1 0 5 1 . 0 9 4 . 0 1 3 7 . 1 7 4 0 9 1 1 . 7 7 1 H . 0 5 \" \" 3 7 . 5 3 1 1 1 4 . 0 1 1 4 . 0 1 3 6 . 4 7 4 0 8 1 1 . 2 9 1 1 . 8 5 4 0 . 9 8 4 4 8 . 0 1 0 2 . 0 1 3 5 . 4 7 4 0 7 1 1 . 2 3 1 1 . 6 0 4 9 . 2 6 7 8 1 . 0 1 0 4 . 0 1 3 3 . 8 7 4 0 b 1 0 . b 9 1 1 . 37 22. 3 4 0 8 4 . 0 2 0 1 . 0 1 3 2 . 1 7 4 0 5 1 0 . 5 6 1 1 . 2 6 1 9 . 120 9 9 - 0 3 4 2 . 0 1 3 0 . 5 7 4 0 4 9 . 9 7 1 0 . 7 0 1 9 . 5 J 0 4 7 . 9 4 0 7 . 0 1 2 8 . 6 7 4 0 3 1 0 . 0 5 1 0 . 0 4 1 6 . 1 0 0 7 0 . 6 ' 2 4 5 . 0 1 2 6 . 5 7 4 0 2 1 0 . 0 9 1 0 . 01 2 1 . 1 5 0 3 0 . 0 1 9 3 . 0 1 2 4 . 6 M 7 4 0 1 9 . 9 0 1 0 . 0 2 1 4 . 7 6 0 6 0 . 0 1 7 4 . 0 1 2 3 . 0 7 3 1 2 9 . 8 8 1 0 . 0 2 5 2 . 9 0 0 5 3 . 0 1 0 3 . 0 1 2 1 . 5 7 3 1 1 9 . 8 0 1 0 . 0 8 3 8 . 9 0 0 9 4 . 0 1 4 5 . 0 1 2 0 . 0 7 3 1 0 9 . 9 8 1 0 . 1 3 3 6 . 6 4 0 1 2 5 . 0 1 7 4 . 0 1 1 8 . 5 7 3 0 9 9 . 7 2 1 9 . 1 1 ~ \" \" \" ~ 1 6 . 9 J O \" ' 1 0 6 - 0 1 6 7 . 0 117 \u2022 0 \" ~ 7 3 0 8 9 . 5 9 9 . 9 1 0 6 . 4 2 0 1 2 4 . 0 1 9 8 . 0 1 1 5 . 6 7 3 0 7 9 . 4 2 9 . 7 1 0 5 . 7 0 0 1 4 5 . 0 2 3 1 . 0 1 1 4 . 6 7 3 0 6 9 . 2 5 9 . 5 2 0 6 . 330 1 9 9 . 0 2 6 2 . 0 1 1 3 . 8 7 3 0 5 9 . 0 7 9 . 3 0 0 5 . 150 1 9 3 . 0 2 7 6 . 0 1 1 2 . 3 7 3 0 4 9 . 0 1 9 . 1 5 0 3 - 0 3 0 1 4 1 . 0 2 6 6 . 0 1 1 1 . 8 7 3 0 3 9 . 0 2 9 . 0 7 0 6 . 2 1 0 \" \" 1 2 8 . 0 1 6 7 . 0 H 6 . 7 7 3 0 2 9 . 0 0 9 . 0 2 0 6 . 840 9 9 . 0 1 3 4 . 0 1 0 9 . 7 7 3 0 1 9 . 0 6 9 . 0 9 0 2 1 . 3 9 0 9 2 - 0 9 1 . 0 1 0 9 . 0 7 2 1 2 9 . 0 0 9 . 2 2 0 3 2 . 2 5 0 1 1 9 . 0 7 3 . 0 1 0 3 . 2 7 2 1 1 9 . 0 8 9 . 3 0 0 2 0 . 0 3 0 1 5 2 . 0 83\u00ab 0 1 0 7 . 5 7 2 1 0 9 . 14 ? . 3 5 0 2 0 . 0 3 0 1 5 2 . 0 1 1 7 . 0 1 0 6 . 8 7 2 0 9 9 . 0 6 9 . 3 3 0 1 9 . 5 3 0 1 5 2 . 3 7 5 . 0 1 0 6 . 0 7 2 0 8 9 . 0 8 9 . 4 1 0 1 4 . 0 2 0 1 6 6 . 0 9 8 . 0 1 0 5 . 3 7 2 0 7 9 . 0 2 9 . 4 1 0 1 5 . 6 8 0 1 4 7 . 0 9 9 . 0 1 0 4 . 6 7 2 0 6 8 . 9 8 9 . 3 7 0 1 0 . 6 4 0 1 9 0 - 0 1 2 2 . 0 1 0 4 . 3 7 2 0 5 8 . 8 3 9 . 1 6 0 1 2 . 5 4 0 2 1 4 - 0 1 3 6 . 0 1 0 3 . 8 7 2 0 4 8 . 7 8 9 . 0 3 0 9 . 2 3 0 1 6 0 . 0 1 3 6 . 0 1 0 3 . 6 7 2 0 3 8 . 7 9 9 . 9 7 0 1 3 . 8 4 0 i 6 8 . 0 1 3 6 . 0 ' 1 0 3 . 4 7 2 0 2 8 . 7 6 8 . 9 3 0 2 1 . 3 2 0 9 9 . 0 6 7 . 0 1 0 3 . 2 7 2 0 1 8 . 8 3 9. 0 4 0 3 4 . 6 4 0 8 2 . 0 5 1 . 0 1 0 2 . 7 711 2 3 . 9 1 9 . 1 0 0 1 1 3 . 6 4 0 1 1 7 . 0 5 9 . 0 1 0 2 . * 7 1 1 1 9 . 0 5 9 . 2 6 0 4 1 . 7 7 0 1 4 3 . 0 6 8 . 0 1 0 1 . 9 7 1 1 0 9 . 0 9 9 . 5 5 0 2 4 . 4 4 0 1 5 4 . 0 6 6 . 0 1 0 1 . 3 7 1 0 9 9 . 0 5 9 . 5 5 0 . 3 8 . 5 3 0 1 6 4 . 0 7 4 . 0 1 0 0 . 4 DATE 7 1 0 8 7 1 0 7 7 1 0 6 7 1 0 5 7 TTVK GMR 8 . 9 9 * 8 . 8 8 ^ 8 . 8 0 8 . 7 9 ~\u2014\u2014 _ i CONVMR 9 . 5 3 0 9 . * 6 0 ' 9 . 3 * 0 9 . 2 5 0 CMHCMRT * 1 . 8 * 0 1 7 . 0 7 0 \"\u2022 7 . 6 3 0 6 . 6 9 0 AI.MRT 1 5 2 . 0 1 6 2 . 3 ' 2 1 3 . 0 1 6 6 . 3 CONVMRT 7 0 . 0 * 7 7 . 0 8 7 . 0 1 0 5 . 0 I1GNEP 9 9 . 8 \" 9 9 T 7 9 9 . 9 9 9 . 8 J \\ 7 1 0 3 7 1 0 2 7 1 0 1 7 0 1 2 7 0 1 1 TOTD 8 . 8 * 8 . 9 3 9 . * 7 9 . 6 5 9 . 7 9 9 . 8 3 a \u2014 q e y. Z0 0 9 . 2 8 0 9 . 7 2 0 9 . 9 4 0 -1 0 . IS 1 0 . 2 8 6 . 8 9 0 2 . 8 6 0 1 * . 8 7 0 2 2 ; 1 2 0 - \u2014 5 6 . 7 6 0 4 4 . 4 4 0 1 4 1 . 0 1 1 4 . 9 7 3 . 0 4 8 . 0 6 8 . 0 9 0 . 0 3 8 . 0 6 0 . 0 4 2 . 0 2 8 . 0 \" 4 2 . 0 4 6 . 0 9 9 . 4 9 8 . 7 9 8 . 3 9 8 . 3 9 8 . 5 9 8 . 5 - \u2022 -7 0 0 9 7 0 0 8 7 0 0 7 7 0 0 6 7 0 0 5 7 0 0 * y . \u2022 o 9 . 9 7 9 . 9 * I 0 i 0 3 1 0 . 2 * 1 0 . 2 8 1 0 ; 2 9 i u . _\u00bb5 1 0 . 3 6 1 0 . 40 ' 1 0 . 3 8 1 0 . 5 3 1 0 . 5 8 \u00ab-*\\ \u00a3-A 1 1 0 . 8 5 0 1 7 5 . 1 0 0 8 5 . 6 7 0 6 4 . 5 4 0 8 . 8 0 0 6 . 8 0 0 8 b . 0 9 7 . 0 4 6 . 0 8 0 . 0 1 0 * . 0 8 6 . 0 5 0 . 0 4 5 . 0 4 1 . 0 3 5 . 0 4 5 . 0 6 9 . 0 9 8 . 2 9 7 . 7 9 7 . 4 9 7 . 0 9 6 . 6 9 5 . 3 7 0 0 3 7 0 0 2 7 0 0 1 6 9 1 2 6 9 1 1 6 9 1 0 1 0 . 2 1 1 0 . 2 7 1 0 . 0 6 9 . 9 7 9 . 9 2 \u00ab \u2014 \u00bb . I \\t \u2022 D U 1 0 . 5 8 1 0 . 5 4 1 0 . 5 8 1 0 . 5 0 1 0 . 30 3 . 8 0 0 3 . 2 6 0 3 . 0 8 0 \" ' 4 . 5 4 0 -4 0 . 3 0 0 2 1 . 8 7 0 7 y . o 5 7 . 0 3 3 . 0 ' ' 3 3 . 0 3 6 . 0 5 0 . 0 5 2 . 0 5 0 . 0 3 7 . 0 2 8 . 0 3 9 . 0 5 6 . 0 9 b . 0 9 6 . 0 9 5 . 7 9 5 . 1 9 4 - 3 9 3 . 7 K> h - 1 - 0 6 9 0 9 6 9 0 8 6 9 0 7 6 9 0 6 6 9 0 5 6 9 0 V y . o \/ 9 . 7 8 9 . 5 9 9 . 3 9 ~ 9 . 1 8 9 . 1 2 T J 7TH 1 0 . 2 1 1 0 . 1 1 9 . 99 ' ' 9 . 9 0 9 . 6 9 9 . 5 0 cc.020 1 3 . 0 6 0 3 3 . 7 0 0 2 1 . 0 1 0 2 4 . 9 2 0 1 5 . 9 5 0 6 2 . 0 5 3 . 0 * 2 . 0 \" ~ \u2014 \" 7 2 7 0 \" 8 3 . 0 7 * . 3 6 8 . 0 5 1 . 0 5 9 . 0 8 8 . 0 1 0 4 . 0 1 1 7 . 0 9 3 . 4 9 3 . 3 9 3 . 1 9 2 . 9 9 2 . 7 9 2 . 5 6 9 0 3 6 9 0 2 6 9 0 1 6 8 1 2 6 8 1 1 6 8 1 0 9 . 0 7 9 . 0 1 8 . 8 * 8 . 6 9 8 . 5 9 A\u20141 9 . 1c 9 . 4 8 9 . 45 9 . 4 5 9 . 10 9 . 09 5 . 7 5 0 5 . 1 3 0 3 . 0 7 0 7 . 6 5 0 6 5 . 0 3 0 5 3 . 5 4 0 7 * . 0 8 0 . 0 4 * . 0 2 8 . 0 6 8 . 0 5 0 . 0 1 3 9 . 0 1 0 6 . 0 7 8 . 0 ' 8 2 . 0 7 8 . 0 1 0 9 . 0 9 2 . 0 9 1 . 4 9 0 . 9 9 0 . 4 8 9 . 9 8 9 . 4 6 8 0 9 6 8 0 8 6 8 0 7 6 8 0 6 6 8 0 5 6 8 0 * O . J * . 8 . 7 5 6 . 8 1 8 . 7 9 -8 . 9 * 8 . 8 5 8 . 6 7 > . 01 9 . 08 9 . 12 9 . 14 9 . 18 9 . 2 3 3 \u2014 O A 3 8 . 2 7 0 9 . 6 6 0 1 2 . 5 5 0 9 i 9 9 0 1 2 . 1 5 0 9 . 150 b 4 . 0 1 9 8 . 0 3 2 . 0 2 7 . 0 -1 0 4 . 0 51 . 9 8 9 . 0 8 1 . 0 6 6 . 0 6 1 . 0 8 4 . 0 7 6 . 0 8 9 . 2 8 9 . 2 8 9 . 0 8 8 . 8 8 8 . 5 8 8 . 3 6 8 0 3 6 8 0 2 6 8 0 1 8 . * 9 8 . 3 6 8^16 3 . 96 8 . 8 * 6 . 9 6 0 2 4 . 6 0 0 6 . 4 7 0 -4-9^0 1 1 3 . 0 4 7 . 0 rs-vo 1 0 6 . 0 7 0 . 0 8 8 . 1 8 8 . 0 8 7 . 9 6 7 1 2 6 7 1 1 6 7 1 0 7 . 9 1 7 . 9 3 7 if 9 3 . 5 2 3 . 5 2 a \u2014 f t - a 2 . 5 8 0 1 1. 7 9 0 5 . 2 8 0 2 7 . 0 \" ' 4 5 . 0 2 9 . 0 6 7 . 0 6 5 . 0 5 6 . 0 8 7 . 5 8 7 . 0 8 6 . 7 6 7 0 9 6 7 0 8 6 7 0 7 7 . 2 5 7 . 2 5 7 . 2 5 j \u2022 H y 9 . 10 3 . 05 3 . 0 2 2 . 6 4 0 3 9 . 7 2 0 2 2 . 9 4 0 9 . 2 1 0 \" l b . O 2 4 . 0 1 4 . 9 8 . 0 4 8 . 0 4 9 . 0 5 9 . 0 8 5 . 0 . , H b . * 8 6 . 2 3 5 . 9 8 5 . 9 218 TABLE A-8 CREDIT CONDITIONS VARIABLES DATE = Y e a r and Month o f E n t r y SMCRED = Sy m m e t r i c M a r k e t C r e d i t V a r i a b l e : O p t i o n A SPCRED = Symmetric C r e d i t V a r i a b l e : O p t i o n B P r i v a t e I n s t i t u t i o n a l L e n d e r s SGCRED = Sy m m e t r i c C r e d i t V a r i a b l e : O p t i o n B Government D i r e c t L e n d i n g AMCRED = A s y m m e t r i c C r e d i t V a r i a b l e G_ _ A v a i l a b i l i t y o f F a v o u r a b l e Government M o r t g a g e s M and S u b s i d i e s t o t h e P r o f i t M o t i v a t e d S e c t o r 219 \u2022; i i lUJ U J \u2022in in io. co i iin K I . IKl O i 0 o o 1 I ' I U J u u *\u2022? co;in l o i C i l M cr> rf >K| **3 IO r- eoirt -IT K l i K I UJ UJ O IM i n K I CM tvj rf KliCM IM \u2022 0 OiO O i 1 I I I UJ UJIUJ UJ I in o ; o rt i rf rticM o i vo m \u00ab-i . O J CMIOO is; . X 0!>0 IM I \u00ab-* in :m rt < 1 K l IMiCM 3 O CO I I I J UJ UJ IUJ JOHift 3 N . CM jr f ' t\u00a3l to I H N e> in ; 0 . in K . i n K l IM 0 o 1 I UJ UJ K Irf i n rt in *^ rf vO VC co N . IM c o o I I I UJ W UJ I O OA in CM ro H K Oi (D H O rf CO CM \u2022\"IM M I I M rt I i o O I i I I UJ UJ I ON rf -IIM UD 1 * . o . i o rt \u2022 !IC (M \u2022 CM rt 0 O 1 I UJ UJ i in co Irf N -eo CM \u00bbn \u00ab-i rt rt IM CM 0 i o o e 1 I I I UJ UJ UJ Ul \u00a9 '\\o K . o N , !OS O N . t> >CO O CO is. i o K I N . CM rt rt rt! o o O i o o o! I I I I I I UJ UJ UJiUJ UJ Ul! K. rf COiuO rf K. O j r f CO U 9 CM CM U D I I M ON rt vO UD KliO CM ON o vc i n IK. K I o>! CM rt Kl irt CM rt 0 O OiO 1 I l i t UJ UJ UIUI CM IM ON !G0 ON CO CM -US \\D rt i n rt O I A i n \u00ab K I i n rt I K . rt rt CM irt CM CM 0 O 1 I 10 rf ON m I C K l I M K i rt rt 0 o o o 1 I I I UJ UJ UJ UJ in rt o in rf NO o N . in k. O rt IM K l rf rt N - CM O <0 IM CM rt rf OC ON rt O CM i n in iin K I CO (ID CM N - lO i>\u00bbirt rf i N . O N ' H V C O K * ( \u00a9 rt <Hlrf k. . io m S i i n ON I |lk O IM irt CO rf rf rf CO ION CO CO Irf ON rf iCM rf O in K l CO IN. rf CO in CO US K ! K. to ON CO UT> K. 0> K. rt ON rt i r t L0 Kl O ON 10 ION Kl rt rt Kl i n Ik rf CO CM rf rf iOO O m ION CO O MD Ik rt rf O CO rt rt O rt CO O O O ON -0 Ik 10 ; 0 CO v\u00a3> rf O rt iCM rt O LM rf IM rt rt ON |K1 CO O IK! IT. rf ieo K I i n i<c ON o l O CM IM O N . O CM in io \u2022 ON CM\u00bbn ON . 1 rf in O N IM < j Ik ON ON ON I |IM Kl Kl C Irt Kl CO ON IKI fc. in K I rf rf o roeo CM C O J C M ON K . K I i r v r f i n I i n m *43:S- ON I rf K ) >CM rt \u00a9 ko to UD iin in in ON CO ON 1 ON ON VD ON CO O N ON ON O ON ON O N ON CO lO CM K ) kn i n i n m ID ID in i n i n i D l f i i l l lO i n i n i n i n l-O N0 V0 K . iin in in i n iin rf i o o IUJ Ul io rf j r f o ilk K . Iin c iCM rf \u2022 i n in i i n I O O I O i I i i I L J U J \u2022 U J i rf in ico i m vo IM i CO rf irt i n m o o 0. m CO rt m in Ki rf 0 o l o o 1 t i l I rt rf fNj #w rt rt I CO NO lO Ik N . I K . &. ^4 rt O 'rt Kl I CO rf rf K . i i n o C M o . rf rf K l |o o o I I UJ UJ UJ rf ON CO K. rt ON i n ON o IO rt CO IIM ON ON llM rt rt \u00a9 o !\u00bb \u2022 O ON IM Kl Kl CM r  CM 0 o 1 i l Ul UJ ON 0 0 K> O rt irf ON kO oo m Irt Kl R, rt rf OON O rf o 0 O 1 I UJ Ul rf rt ON VO i n co ON CO rt ON S. CM l o o I I Ixl UJ in co \u00a9 ON ON CM pN CM irt rt tM rf 0 o 1 II UJ Ul rt k. \u00abo m m \u00ab rt \u00bb-r O C 9 K . rf 0 o 1 I UJ UJ CM O i n CM rf m Irf Kl Kl <K< Kl Kl p o o i o o e i \u2022 i ii i i ^. i 1.1 i \u2022 i u LU j \u2022 i K m K . ION m rf tCM O CM lO N\u00bb m p ON ON i in \\0 rf kr. I M 10 ION CM CO ON I 0 'ON O O tM rt 0 0 Kl m rf Kl Kl Kl Kl Kl rf 0 O O O CO 1 I I il UJ UJ UJ Ul Is. m rt C rf CM CM Kl O IvD O K. CM Kl rf 110 K. rf ON K l vO ICM UD CM K K. rf IKl Kl in rf rt CO I I IM O i n K I K I 0 O O 1 I I UJ Ul UJ rf K. O rf IM S. rt ON CM rf K l rf in us rt CM K l CO a rf LaJ rt a s c_) D_ in iO rt wfi IP \u00bb v3 O O t\\J \u00ab# IVJ K) fWJ 1A O \"1 O (M H lift h\u00bb *D m \u00ab H ^ \\ \u00ab J K. CJ O \u00bb* -a- in in \u2022* r U5 O O k-i i n i r ox co art K in O J \u00ab H M O \u00bbJJ5 H K t\u00bbN p j in o tn \u00abD i n O* O W (O 1ft o\u00bb kD *i> \u00abtf >* * e> Lf> ON -tf- CM CD vC i\u00a3 a K. in M i n m eo i n o p vfl 0 0 \u2022> *\u2022\u00ab O |n 9> \u00bbr vC IVJ U-i co c j m ao o Lo in ox \u00a9 rf m in K I \u00bb\u00bb m vc I\\J Lr> vo co co o m CO rf rf ~* o to <j-4 <J-4 t\\j in K- CO (\\J K- IS. (Jv tM * vD i y K \u2022> O K> ON O ^ in in K \u00bb K ) \u00a9A ON rf ON IA i n kfi K O k fn rf *x> i v K I \u2014< K . \u00abo in rf rf rf UroKik.ec ON K I K I i n in rf rf (O 4 k H O rf M C\\J K l K l (O* CO i n O Ov K-l\\J K l K l rf K l K l K ON i n ON K IV rf rf K I K I rf m [eo rf vc rf ^  co I K I \u00ab\u00bb m in i n rf ko co rf rf m co in \u00a9 \u00a9 ON CO rf k. O i n i n K I i v oo KD co i n k, \u00a9 in rf CO k. CO K l CO K l ON O w CO rf N - rf M0 i n k. i n ON K. r-- \u00a9 i v co i v K I rf rf T l rf \u00bb\u2014 ON rf ON ON CO \u2014 in K I no vc in fo > \u00a9 \\\u00a3> K l ON IV D Ki lO k O (VI \u00ab*1 \u00ab-! , - \u00bb \u00ab - \u00ab F I \u00a9 B0 0 0 vO ON ON rf U i n e o t - i w o U i n ^ c K ) co p r v w r f v - i o c o L o t n ^ o N C o ON p N K i m e o * - ^ t r e o K i K i \u00a9 t n p. Kl Co eO rf 1 k Kl H Kj <*i Kl i\u00a3> rf rf b M l w w k in i n \u00a9 cc co \u00a9 c o R O NO i n co \u00ab-i f\u00a9 ^  o CJ \u00bb H I\/N co co in K I \u00ab-4 p CO ON k. K I in ~* rf IH C N k l \\ J in ro rf in k \u00abo rg o \u00a9 fv o\\ eo k. K I m rf in cv i n i n vc k C N k p\u00ab rf K l K l 1\/1 K l U 5 0 3 \\D rf rf rf ko co ON K I rf in K I rf i n rf rf \\6 \u00bb k. N. Kl CO in rf rvjCVKl^ K l K l K l K t K l H ( v ^ v i k * \u00bb w O r f t n c o o N \u00a9 c o r f it K I rf rf in p rf I V \u00a9 I V rfrf rf in i n in rf in oo ^  K I rf in co m N ' H O a --I \u2014 \u2014\u00ab \u00a9 OS OX ON K . N . K N . CO N . NO i n rf K l O O o o o o ON ON C?* ON ON ^ S. N . N . N . S . K IM rt IM rt O ON O rt rt ^ O |0N ON CO CO CO CO N. K. IS. K, K. S. pO N . 10 in rf K l p o c o o o bo m co co co 9 ) K v K . N - K - h N . N -Kj rt fM rt C ON t5 O rt rt rt O CO 0 0 N . K . N . Is. K . K. K . K- K- N , p K . VC m rf K l p O O O o o K . K- N . K- K- N . CM rt CM rt O ON O rt rt rt O H> 10 ID v0 UD K . K- K- K- K-I I K . NO m rfKttMrtCMrt IOOO O O O O rt rt ) i c NO NO v 0 v o i 0 \\ o m m . K . K - K - N - K . K - K . N . K . 2 2 0 C3 CC Ul-0 0 k. CD KI w ec WT O H C H k tV OT *M WPl 03 IV ON) CV PO CO H K|t>. K-i n ON H CM -H \u2022-\u00bb\u00bb-\u00ab \u00bb-4i ** ON PO iTl 031 O Pw 03 ON H ON \u00a9 wr rw; t\\j K. wr co i n H e\\j q c c o j o o o PO< S. CM K. wr CM CM us o o i n POIOT o O rO vD-ON t\\J O: m in P i ' H K i P * ; in o c o i \\ o o UD OJ in WT ;U3 H * i;PO wr ON el ; PO in ro| i H wr Ul r o us m Ivi CM CO i \\ j r o 03 O H K iv \u00abM ro ; iv co t\\i iv cv| \u2022 \u2022 t! O C O O '\u00a9I c \u00a9 \u00a9 i n \u00a9 as PO \u00a9 in i r o \u00a9 \u00a9 wr as H;\"O in wr ro ro ON m H m 1 \u00a9 \u00a9 c \u00a9 \u00a9 U l UJ UJ i i v wr or i \u00bb wr PO i n K . wr \u00ab i n wr 03 m CM IM H \u00abN CM CM I 03 U3 I \u00a9 ' 0 3 N . wr wr or \u00a9 in CM r o PO: \u00a9 ro m j o 03 p*-- wr \u00a9 or \u00a9 PW,IM or or] Pw ON US' \u00a9 ON Pw! w-f \u00ab4 i - t H H IV- H w* \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a91 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 > : UJ i \u00a9 i n ; or l Pw U3! PO I ON \u2014* ON * PO o w i \u00ab-* H in U l U l H CO co wr wr ON in \u00a9 ON wr 03 in m>rw CJ \u00a9 PO iv 03! \u00a9 cj ro j WT 03 OM H \u00a9 \u00a9 ! ro in \u00a9 l i e rw \u00bb ' i U i U) > i n \u00a9 \u2022 \\ *** Pw \u2022 03 ON \\ \u00a9 \u00a9 1 \u00a9 PO \u00ab Pw f \u00a9 \u00a9 I I bJ U l D \u00a9 PO us ON i n <W H V0 03 in or \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 CJ CJ H 03 cv or ?m pw *w Pw PO \u00a9 IvO H O tn H iNJiio ON co ON o m; cv \u00a9 PO \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 l i ; i i i U l U K U I UJ W r o in \u00a9-in \u00a9 in H in O ON CO \u00a9 CO vO O CN CV IV PO \u00a9 PO<\u00a9 wr ON or Pw ON CC \u00a9 ON *H \u00a9 o3?K- m ITJ P*. in ro \u00a9 IT O Pw Wf in Pw ON \u00a9 wr \u2014 ON pw r o PO Pw <pw'Pw ON 80 \u00a9 o \u00a9 \u00a9 t i l l U l Ut U l U l ON PO in ON 03 PO Pw ON ON' PO r i PO Iw CD PO WT CO uD ON m iv in PO us CJ wr \u00a9 : PO ** \u00a9 ro po po wt CV \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 PO ON WP -Pw pw tO CJ -wr * \u00ab \u2014i-.o < 03 \u00a9 in; wr i eo o i n IO CM o \u00abw CM K. * vC wt i n i n o ON p j \"> .\u00bb *\u00bb> ON ON to-wr wr wr rotpo PO INJ CO PO IM in ON;O> ON 03 ON PO PO *-t ON-*-* \u2022 * t \u2022 \u00a9 \u00a9 *\u00a9 L U ice: \\X> tn wr PO mm in in CJ H o;o \u00ab PO in in m i U 3 K \u00a9 us in Pwi in 03 i in CJ 0 ! \u00ab 5 ON I Pw CV O CO Pw Pwl 03 in in: WR or in rw \u00a9 P w 03 in wr or i \u00a9 PO wr i i cv iv:cj tv CJ cv cv cv cv \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 i I i I UJ U l U l Ul] *-mn m H| VC 'PO \u00a9 Pw O \u00a9 ON \u00a9 O O O \u00a9 H ;or wr wr cv po \u00a9 wr CO (V CV CJ CJ CJ \u00a9 \u00a9 o-o \u00a9 \u00a9 I I I I I I U l U l U K U I Uf U l wr pw \u2014 :PO \u00a9 r o r o \u00a9 cv>pw u3 ON H ro wr . H or \u00a9 in \u00a9 cv:\u00a9 in ro ON \u00a9 Pw-wr m or wr \u00a9 m -cv H cv PO iv cv IM CJ \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 o I I i I i l I U l U l UJ UJ U l U l ON m PO \u00a9 ON CV o3 or CO CM 03 Pw m po PO us wr ON i iv \u00a9 Pi*' cc rw \u00bb-< wr cv or ON r o o ! H 03 iv s H IV CJ j cv cv cv1 cv \u00a9 o \u00a9 \u00a9 I I I I U l UJ Ul< UJ Pw 03 CJ ON \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9' o ON PO P w l \u00a9 pw \u2014 CJO? wr ro m . i v cv cv 0 o| 1 I U l u ON XO CJ PO pw or 03 IV U3 IV CV Cj CV; CV PO PO \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 I I I I I I U l U l U I ' U ! U l U l *-4 PO ONI\u00a9 PO PO r o i m \u00a9 in wr \u2014 * U3 Pw \u00a9 i r o or PA or ro - n u n U3 \u00abM \u00ab in PO \u00a9 \u00a9 vo V3 IT. PO PO PO PO PO CJ \u00a9 \u00a9 O i \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 I I I I I I U l U l U l tUI U l U l PW to \u00a9 iin 0 3 CJ ON \u00a9 in iON rw K. \u00a9 ON \u00a9 iwr rw \u00a9 o or PO ;o ON ON in in PO '.to oi PO 03 in PO j\\o Pw tv CV IV CV CM CV CV \u00a9 O O O O O I I I I I Ul U I ,U I U l Ui wr PO \u00a9 H *w us pw m \u00a9 03 ON ON ON in in or wr \u00a9 Pw IM or ^wr H PO o3 tv IV 03 \u00a9 |K> IV CJ IV \u00ab-\u00ab H CV CJ CM CV CV CJ 0 \u00a9 \u00a9 ; \u00a9 o ol 1 I I I I | u i u i u h u i u i u i ! in iv -\u00a9 in \u00a9i \u00a9 wr rw;\u00bbo \u00a9i in ON in CM iv U3 03 wr u v r o ON CM cv in H \u2022 pw o3 PO :H CV CJ CJ O O O \u00a9 I I I I Ul U l U i U l Pw Pw Pw r o IV \u00a9 \u00a9 V3 ON wr ON in C O H c PO \u00a9 ON u3 H in CJ wr <=4 L U CC C-5 m o o \u00a9] Pw \u2022\u00a9 ON PO \u00a9 \u00a9 in in P*- 03 PO H 03 U3 ON I H \u00a9 \u00a9 WT UD CJ PO V3 H Pw PO m o \u00a9 PO ivD H \u2022\u00a3 :>M H \u00a9 O O P * . \u00a9 \u00a9 us H o in \u00a9 pw \u00a9 WT N - ON P O 9*4 \u00a9 O N ON PO IV m H \u00a9 H wr \u00a9 PO CJ wr K. :\u00bbo wr ON| c j \u00a9 H co in \u00a9 ON e j u s m iv I e o m m w ON U3 wr \u00a9 \u00a9iin H or wr <o in;o m m or u3 wr ; ro iv *-* m* <J3 ON tO \u00a9 H H \u00a9 pw \u00a9 PO U3 m o 3 U 3 P O N . r o wr \u00abw wr H cv PO Pw ON H PO ON wr I\u00a9 \u00a9 c j in in \u00a9 Pw m co m lev Pw \u00a9 wr 03 r o ON us ON wr iv m \u00a9 wf ' \u00a9 \u00a9 03 Lw CJ ON 03 ON H KD CJ IV 5\u00a9 IV WT H ON ON Pw \u00a9 Pw \\B WT. wr ro \u00a9 us m rw wr rw Q U J CC CO \u00a9 H U3 wr m or or \u00a9 tO 03 !Pw H ON Im or wr <PW \u00a9 PO \u00a9 CJ wr wr m \u00a9 Pw PO PO O H ON \u00a9 r o WT'PO \u00a9 \u00a9 rw m wr wr r o ro in tn \u00a9<pw iv ON ON \u00a9 w* U3 \u00a9 IV PO PO PO CJ IV O 1 PO wr r o H K m \u00ab to PO in kn ro PO \u2022 cv PO ro ON U> ON 0> PO PO PO PO H U3 in wr CV -H in Pw 03 m H CO Pw H 03 Pw U3 H or \u00a9 wr in PO PO \u2022P* o3 in ON tv \u00a9 |pw m \u00a9 U3 \u00a9 03 CJ ON u3 H wr \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 m o o3 Iro \u00a9 m ro \u00a9 \u00a9 or 03 H \u00a9 m or r*^ ro ON m H m CJ ON m 'Pw. ON 03 ON ON rw. or PO us or H o iv wr wr rw iv \u00a9 iv or PO 03 03 ON CO Pw C M PO O U3 i n ON CM wr \u00a9 c j ON -H PO PO H H ;o \u00a9 \u00a9 ON wr \u00a9 or ro ON tv rw wr m ON \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 po wr o m PO ON Pw co cv IV |ON tO 03 CM ON ON I\u00a9 PO ON Pw Pw \u00a9 K> 03 03 to wr \u00a9 o3 m cv PO cv ko PO PO \u00a9N PO CO ON U3 IV PO H \u00a9 |po \u00a9 wr PW wr rw nv k H PO ON \u00a9 co PO \u00a9 \u00a9 ON U3 H PO I\u00a9 wr \u00a9 in JH wr m \u00a9 \u00a9 m m \u00a9 \u00a9 PO PO PO U3 Pw \u00a9 03 m pw m o3 fw in M o co ON rw Pw \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 PO \u00a9 m \u00a9 \u00a9 Pw wr \u00a9 m or PO iwr ro cv PW*W\u00a9ON w r m | \u00a9 H P o c v f v m iv cv CJ cv CM tv fwr H wr'm Pw rw PO PO PO CV IV CM |Pw H Pw U3 lev PO ro PO \u00a9 ce w o o o i n i n i n i n INC m * Kl IM \u2014 o o o o o o iin i n i n i n m i n IM ^ O Oi \"OS, \\~* ^ \u00bb^ o o \u00a9 0 9 i n ^ CM \u2022** o o o o o o C M ^ O O . n h k o i n \u00ab m M M \u2014 \u00ab - - - o o o ! o o o o o o K ) ^* \u00a9 o . \u00abo w U\u00bb w \u00a9 o o <V) IM CM CM C\\l CM iO i n ^ ^ CM ^< O O O O O O IM CM CM CM CM CM |CM -4 O O \"ffilE n o s 7 1 0 7 7 1 0 6 7 1 0 5 7 1 0 4 7 1 0 3 7 1 0 2 7 1 0 1 7 0 1 2 7 0 1 1 - r o r o -7 0 0 9 7 0 0 8 7 0 0 7 7 0 0 6 7 0 0 5 ~70tfA-7 0 0 3 7 0 0 2 7 0 0 1 6 9 1 2 6 9 1 1 69tO-6 9 0 9 6 9 0 8 6 9 0 7 6 9 0 6 6 9 0 5 6 9 0 ^ -6 9 0 3 6 9 0 2 6 9 0 1 6 8 1 2 6 8 1 1 - e s t t r -6 8 0 9 6 8 0 8 6 8 0 7 6 8 0 6 6 8 0 5 6 8 0 3 6 8 0 2 6 8 0 1 6 7 1 2 6 7 1 1 6710\" 6 7 0 9 6 7 0 8 6 7 0 7 SF1CRED \" 3 1 . 8 6 4 6 3 3 . 3 8 2 1 3 3 . 0 9 0 9 3 9 . 9 9 0 0 SPCRED 3 5 . 3 8 0 9 3 5 . 7 0 6 0 3 6 . 0 4 2 6 4 3 . 3 3 2 7 4 3 7 1 3 1 6 4 5 . 6 6 1 4 4 5 . 0 0 5 2 5 4 . 5 8 1 0 5 5 . 4 6 3 4 5 0 . 7 8 1 7 S G C R E D . 5 1 8 7 3 0 E - 0 2 . 2 1 7 1 2 6 E - 0 2 . 9 8 6 2 6 5 E - 0 3 . 8 5 7 5 9 7 E - 0 3 4 8 . 3 8 7 9 \" 5 0 . 4 8 3 1 5 3 . 6 9 7 5 7 l ; 1276 7 4 . 6 2 3 2 6 6 . 0 3 9 6 4 2 ^ 2 ^ r<r 3 6 . 4 5 8 3 5 4 . 3 1 3 2 5 7 ; 6 1 8 0 8 2 . 9 3 1 9 8 9 . 2 8 1 4 7 3 . 8 6 2 6 7 7 . 9 7 3 5 1 0 8 . 3 2 5 0 9 0 ; 2 3 6 4 9 3 . 2 9 3 4 9 9 . 7 0 4 7 . 8 8 7 0 1 0 E - 0 3 . 3 5 9 3 3 2 E - 0 3 . 1 6 R 6 7 8 E - 0 2 i 2 4 1 6 4 5 E ^ 0 2 . 6 0 1 2 3 0 E - 0 2 4 6 6 9 0 7 E - 0 2 AMCRED 4 3 . 6 7 5 6 4 3 . 2 9 8 4 4 2 . 8 1 2 2 4 2 . 8 6 5 8 G \/ J 9 8 . 1-9 0 3 -9 3 . 0 2 1 4 9 2 . 4 4 2 9 8 8 . 2 2 9 9 7 9 . 5 5 9 1 7 0 . 1 2 3 5 1 0 4 . 3 2 8 0 1 0 1 . 8 6 1 0 9 5 ; 5 2 0 0 1 0 8 . 4 7 0 0 8 2 . 8 5 4 1 - 6 S i 87 8 9 -8 8 . 5 2 2 1 6 6 . 5 5 9 5 4 9 . 8 5 8 4 ' 4 9 . 4 5 6 0 5 3 . 9 3 5 3 7 3 . 0 4 6 7 9 8 . 6 3 4 8 8 3 . 4 3 5 4 5 6 ; 5 3 5 8 5 9 . 9 0 1 8 6 2 . 6 9 2 1 . U 6 r r O E - 0 1 . 1 8 0 3 0 2 E - 0 1 . 9 9 4 1 3 2 E - 0 2 i 6 6 1 3 8 7 E - 0 2 \u2022 8 6 8 7 7 2 E - 0 3 . 6 6 8 1 8 4 E - 0 3 \u2014 ^ 7 - 3 8 3 5 E - 0 3 . 3 2 5 7 5 8 E - 0 3 . 3 0 5 1 3 9 E - 0 3 v 4 f l f 1 5 E - 0 J . 4 2 9 9 3 5 E - 0 2 . 2 3 7 1 8 4 E - 0 2 4 3 . 1 8 1 6 4 5 . 6 6 1 4 4 5 . 6 7 2 5 5 4 . 5 8 1 0 5 5 . 4 6 3 4 5 0 - 7 8 1 7 0 . 1 5 8 5 8 1 . 6 6 6 6 1 5 E - 0 1 - 2 4 9 0 2 5 E - 0 1 - 2 4 0 9 1 6 E - 0 1 \u2022 2 9 2 0 8 5 E - 0 1 . 1 6 i r i O E - 0 1 0 . 1 1 4 4 9 9 O; 2 2 5 4 38\" 0 . 3 4 0 3 6 9 0 . 2 4 6 2 8 7 4 \/ . b 2 7 4 4 7 . 9 4 1 5 5 4 . 3 1 3 2 5 7 ; 6 1 8 0 8 2 . 9 3 1 3 8 9 . 2 8 1 4 0 . 4 5 0 3 8 5 0 . 5 5 2 1 9 2 0 . 5 2 3 7 3 1 0 . 3 5 9 4 7 4 - 5 5 7 6 6 8 E - 0 1 \u2022 4 2 0 2 7 2 E - 0 1 \" 4 6 - 8 0 5 3 \" 4 1 . 0 0 7 1 4 0 . 8 3 7 0 3 7 ^ 9 3 6 4 3 2 - 0 1 4 0 3 0 . 9 6 3 6 . 2 4 2 0 1 2 E - U 2 . 2 0 2 0 4 6 E - 0 2 . 3 9 3 5 8 9 E - 0 2 . 2 5 6 4 9 5 E - 0 2 - 3 1 8 9 9 4 E - 0 2 . 2 0 7 3 1 4 E - 0 2 \" 9 8 - 1 9 0 3 9 3 . 0 2 1 4 9 2 . 4 4 2 9 ~ 8 8 ; 2 2 9 9 7 9 . 5 5 9 1 7 0 . 1 2 3 5 \u2014 . 2 8 1 8 9 9 E - 0 1 \u2022 2 9 5 5 5 3 E - 0 1 - 4 2 1 4 5 6 E - 0 1 . 6 9 2 7 0 7 E - 0 1 0 . 3 4 3 5 6 4 0 . 1 7 1 0 3 3 5 2 . 3 3 2 5 \" 4 5 . 8 7 9 3 4 4 . 2 0 0 0 4 1 . 0 1 3 7 4 1 . 2 9 4 2 4 1 . 0 5 5 1 -331T192-8-2 8 . 4 4 7 5 6 5 . 7 8 1 9 7 6 ; 9 0 1 2 4 5 . 9 4 6 9 7 3 . 7 5 4 2 9 6 8 2 2 7 1 E - 0 3 . 4 1 6 0 3 0 E - 0 J . 1 0 8 2 9 0 E - 0 2 . 9 5 7 8 8 8 E - 0 2 - 8 1 1 6 2 3 E - 0 2 4 5 . 6 0 4 9 2 7 . 8 2 8 2 6 9 . 2 8 4 2 9 5 . 7 2 1 0 5 1 . 9 8 8 0 8 4 . 7 8 2 0 -firB^-WtrO-2 7 . 1 0 2 1 3 4 . 5 7 7 8 3 8 . 7 6 0 7 4 6 . 5 7 6 0 6 2 . 1 7 0 0 9 5 7 2 1 6 5 -5 2 . 2 7 1 5 5 4 . 1 9 5 4 5 4 . 7 2 0 4 r 5 T 8 7 7 2 E - 0 < ; . 1 4 1 4 4 8 E - 0 2 , 1 8 1 6 7 8 E - 0 2 . 1 4 5 6 0 4 E - 0 2 . 1 7 1 7 7 4 E - 0 2 . 1 3 2 3 0 4 E - 0 2 6 5 . 8 7 8 9 8 8 . 5 2 2 1 6 6 . 5 5 9 5 4 9 . 8 5 8 4 4 9 . 4 5 6 0 5 3 . 9 3 5 3 4 6 . 8 0 5 5 4 4 . 4 6 0 4 4 4 . 3 9 8 3 4 4 . 3 06 3 4 2 . 2 8 0 5 4 2 . 3 0 3 9 0 . 1 4 4 3 4 9 0 . 1 4 7 9 6 0 0 . 2 5 0 1 8 5 0 . i i 6 0 7 l 0 . 1 1 7 5 9 2 . 7 7 0 7 1 8 E - 0 1 . 2 6 2 8 5 7 E - 0 1 \u2022 2 6 8 4 0 4 E - 0 1 - 2 4 5 4 6 3 E - 0 1 \u2022 6 5 0 2 3 4 E - 0 1 0 . 3 0 8 1 5 5 0 . 2 5 1 9 0 5 7 8 i - 8 1 Z 6 -3 2 . 9 3 8 0 3 8 . 6 0 2 6 4 0 . 1 1 8 2 4 5 . 7 0 9 5 6 4 . 5 9 0 1 4 1 . 8 8 4 5 4 2 . 2 8 5 6 6 5 . 7 8 1 9 7 6 - 9 0 1 2 4 5 . 9 4 6 9 7 3 . 7 5 4 2 r l ( T 5 T ) 9 8 E = 0 2 -. 3 8 6 2 5 0 E - 0 2 . 1 0 5 3 1 8 E - 0 2 . 4 4 2 8 2 4 E - 0 3 \" . 2 1 6 5 9 2 E - 0 2 , 9 6 9 4 3 0 E - 0 3 0 . 2 0 0 0 8 4 - 3 3 4 6 5 0 E - 0 1 0 . 1 1 3 5 2 3 0 . 1 0 1 9 4 9 . 6 0 7 0 4 5 E - 0 1 - 6 7 2 0 5 3 E - 0 1 9 3 . 9 9 6 0 8 0 . 3 3 5 6 6 8 . 8 2 1 3 6 0 . 8 3 9 5 \" 6 8 . 4 30 0 \" 4 1 . 5 7 7 8 4 1 . 2 7 9 1 4 1 . 2 4 4 0 4 6 . 5 7 6 0 6 2 . 1 7 0 0 r 5 T T J 5 T B E - 0 3 , 8 7 6 6 4 9 E - 0 2 . 5 0 3 0 7 1 E - 0 2 . 2 0 3 9 8 1 E - 0 2 9 5 . 2 1 6 5 3 6 . 4 3 6 7 3 7 . 0 2 2 4 3 7 . 7 3 1 9 . 5 2 7 4 3 3 E - 0 T T 0 . 1 0 0 6 1 6 - 5 2 4 0 1 4 E - 0 1 - 2 6 7 1 3 6 E - 0 1 - 9 6 8 0 6 0 E - 0 1 . 3 8 4 8 4 7 E - 0 1 . 3 9 6 1 5 8 E - 0 1 0 . 3 5 2 3 7 8 0 . 2 3 9 1 0 8 . 9 0 i O B 6 E - 0 1 to TABLE A- 9 PROPORTION OF CAPITAL FROM VARIOUS SOURCES DATE = Y e a r o f E n t r y WL = B u s i n e s s L o a n s P e r c e n t a g e WB = Bonds and D e b e n t u r e s D e b t P e r c e n t a g e WM = M o r t g a g e D e b t P e r c e n t a g e WE = E q u i t y P e r c e n t a g e WF = P r o p o r t i o n o f R e q u i r e d C a p i t a l I n v o l v i n g F l o t a t i o n C o s t s CO CD CO ' ON in -4 H t ^ H (C (C in in m iin v<o c\\j co eo ko \u00a9 \u00bb Iin in in io* co *\u00ab\u2022 ko U5 vD l O u5 K . 2 2 3 k . O * - K - k IVJ in in U D . \u00a9 ON IOI CO ON O ; O ON O I CM. C\\J fM |ON ON ON CM LN\u00bb k . \u00ab0 K ) \u00a9 O^ rf |kX) \u00ab\u00a3> vC i n in rf K I K I in K . \\c Ln in in ON as o*. INJ in Jk>i(w ON i k j sO 00 O: K l m \u00a9 > O l \u00a9 ON O. I CSJ fVJ i\\i \\C ON ' ON K l CO rf ?K1 \u00a9 I CO fj-lifVl CM K l 1\\J \u00a9 ' CO \u00a9 \u00a9 U\u00ab O ON IK . tO \u00a9 O N \u00a9 \u00a9 iOs ON \u00a9 lnininik,oo\u00ab^a>cvjAO\u00a9 ON in in in \u00a9 IT K> j\u00a9 co \\o <rf k . in * p> f> o o o o k i CVJ l\\J K l t\\J K i \u00abD CO IN. X k lO ro co co itsj cvj t\\j ON CO N - U ? i n rf K. k k k k k ON ON ON ON O^ ON K l CO \u00ab-t \u00a9 ON \u00a9 k k k \u00abC vO ON ON 'ON ON ON 2 2 4 TABLE A-10 COMPONENTS OF THE WEIGHTED-AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL DATE = Year and Month of Entry LGBR = Long-term Government Bond Rate NCPIR = I n f l a t i o n Rate (Average Percent Change i n the Na t i o n a l Consumer P r i c e Index) RRE - Required Rate of Return oh Equit y BR = Average I n t e r e s t Rate of Twenty Corporate Bonds COMR = Business Loan Rate (Prime Business Bank Rate Plus Two Percent) CONVMR = Conventional Mortgage I n t e r e s t Rate (See TABLE A-7) R = Weighted-average Cost of C a p i t a l (Expressed as A Monthly Discount Rate) 2 2 5 IM (V) \u00a9 o I I UJ UJ O K i O eo er rf o us rf m IM oj CM CM 0 o l o o 1 i li i UJ UJ jut UJ ec- rf m o CD Ck I r t rt \u00a9 cr irt ec o j rt Lo k. K ON N- US k. US US US OJ CM (Vi 0 \u00a9 O 1 I I UJ Uf U l O- ON rt Kt CM m CO K. iv, CC I k US m ir in ID ID 10 cJ< CNJ CO (\\J oj o o o I ' l l I I UJ U U J U i k. K> <r ^  vD \u2022 O^  m LT- BC O K. K I r> us ro ir \u2022# \u00abff m \u00a9 io \u00a9 \u00a9 CO CVJ 0 O 1 I UJ UJ O K. O \u00ab-* rf co w k. rf K\", vC \u00a9 PJ IcV CV OlO o I I I I U J u i u i k. k. U5 f\u00bb CM CN. I* IC rf rf in OJ rtrt UD Lo us CM CM O O I I UJ Ul \u00a9 CM OJ OJ 0 o 1 I UJ UJ OJ CM o o I l u . M CMOJ OJ OJ,OJ OJOJ OJOJ OJIOJOJCMOJ OJOJ \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 o o o \u00a9 O \u00a9 \u00a9 | \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 o o o I I i I I I I I I I i 11 I i I i\" i Ul U J U J U j i u i U J U J U J Ul UJ UJ UJ UJ UJ UJ UJ i r t M C M K i i u S N u j - C N . c o k . k r - - -rt CM . US US ' !KiKieo\u00a9uD\u00aboiONK.KNrt\u00a9m IKl k. \u00a9 C Kl rtlrf C O O \u00a9 m rt i r t C M C M i n c o e o i O K i r t C M i n k . ( \u00a9 O r t r t r t r t i r t l M C M K Ki Kl lusususususus'usususususus S CMrt S irt rf IM rf K l CO \u00abn cv- \u00a9 in rt rf IcO m \u00a9 \u00a9 ON CO JK- m k. ec eo er \u2022us us us us us us OJOJ 0 o 1 1 Li. U l kr us jrt m U- rt r\u00a9 k. O ON kC US OJ OJ OJ \u00a9 o o I ) I UJ UJ UJ k. \u2014. CO US k. rt CC rt OJ CM ^ k O C C \u00a9 rt k. k. k. k. Oj! OJ OJ OJ OJ O l O \u00a9 \u00a9 O I'll I I I u l I UJ Ul Ul U.' US IO rt OJ o us OJ K l rt rf rf IT rf k. CM c o c k> US k. c c c e p o c o e e \u00a9 O O O D O O O O O c o e o t o e o c o m o o o o p o m m o o j rfrfrfrfi\u00bbrfK<KlK.CM D O C O O O r C O C O C \u00a9 teoooooioooooo Ininmtnininmmminmm k. CJ IM CM IM k. t \u2022 \u2022 \u2022 \u2022 ^ m* ^  & ICM CM OJ IM CM IM \u2022 \u2022 t \u2022 t t lo a o o o \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 o c o o e o o o e o e o o \u00a9 \u00a9 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o U S r t U S r t m r f U S C M ( M O N r f e O i n k . C 0 K i OS \u00a9 k . O V r t D N i n \u00ab n K ' . K l r f ^ n r f K l f M C M C k p a \u2022 . . \u2022 \u2022 \u2022 . < . . . . . . , . . I O J r t r t r t O O O O O O O O O O O O K O \u00a9 o o \u00a9 e \u00a9 o o o o o cr u: rf rf k. rf feO CO ON ON ON ON c o o o e c j o c e o c o C k O N O > O N O N O N ) D K e k O N C> N O N O N Oi! I I i oj k- in K I in eo rt in O US k. in \u00a9 ON CM \u2022 \u2022 ; \u2022 \u2022 Ck ON CO Oi CO ON \u00a9 c \u00a9 c o e f c o e o e e i c c c c o c \u00a9 o o c c e t - o o o o o o o e o o \u00a9 ,m m in m in in in m m ir. m in ir- m in IT in in ICM IM CM m in m. m inirm in ir in  O J ( M \\ . l k k . k . ^ C M l M l k C M C M r M t M C M l M O J O J \u2022 \u2022 \u2022 # t \u2022 \u2022 \u2022 \u2022 \u2022 \u2022 t}\u00ab t t f f O O O O \u00a9 O O r t r t r t r M C M r M l M O j I M O j O J e c c c O O O O in m in in OJ CM Ik. k. k. k. \u2022 f i \u2022 \u2022 \u2022 \u2022 CM O jrt rt rt rt 1 I I m co \u00a9 OK.H*, \u2014 o\u00bb\u00ab^\u00ab\u2014\u00ab--rf i\\j o - -#Kiovj3 4 \\ j i o o i t - m * o i j ; , ^ i n ' * K. \u00a9 KN \" k ^ i T O O ^ N ' ' . - K. O- \u2022* rf C t \u00a3 i \u00a3 N * 9 C i C K . ^ t e O v C M \\ ] \u00ab | \u00a3 l > k- \u00a9 m N O n O l w M ( M > l > C H K i t > CC CNJ CO O k C O W | \/ l t o | i f l ^ k O i n ( 0 k ( D a 3 k M I\u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 ,- _ \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 . krt- ~vC rft\\JK. ON kD fNj ON k\u00bb lo\\ K I \u00a9 \u00a9 i n rf \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 E \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 Kl CO \u00a9v Pi \u00a9 I\/N, in hk.CDK.vO <\u00a9 \u00a9 <\\i t\\J (CKOO-ON 0 ON ON O N \u00a9 0 \u00a9 P \u00a9 O \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 | \u00a9 O \u00ab \u00ab N - ^ c \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 c i \u00a9 o \u00a9 \u00a9 p o o o o o i o o c o - n o - k . r f \u00a9 . \u00ab e t N j i v \u00bb -^ t ^ ^ i n t f i a o i t n k O p e i Of*OkM>l>CNOH \u2022 i \u2022 t : t i f l t i O O- ON \u00bb *JO K. k. K. \u00a9 ON C O \u00a9 \u00a9 C K \u2022 1 t > \u00a9 \u2022L* \u2022 O N | t > t > O N O O O D O O O \u00a9 \u2022 \u2022 ^ [ \u2022 ^ ^ ^ c o t v C A J t v c v j C o c o c o ir> \u00a9 vC o OONON \u00a9 vO rfifiNJC^wOtpininiOKICN Kl to \u00a9 KN rf Kl ON rf \u00bb (C O M k vC \u00a9 IV Kl \u00a9 in \u00a9 \u00a9 03 \u2022 | \u2022 \u2022 \u2022 ff \u00a9 \u00a9 \u2014 \u2014 .-. IV cv iv i ~ \u00ab K I (ON rv c rf ON \u00a9 IT* Ck \u00a9 rf K* fNj M CO k Co in ON io* \u00a9 \u00a9 m \u2022 i f f \u2022 \u2022 1 \u2014\u2022 rvj isj rvj CNJ rv- fv t\\j pv.1 r^^^\u00b0^^ o or^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^\u00ae^^^N>k.Sovinrf k.u?i^\u00a9rfw^ininfvtvwrfu^ \u2014 k . * ^ i n c j K - , u > ^ ^ t v ^ -\u00ab- cr \u00a9 k. vCwom^-ONO-cc \u00a9 \u00a9 (KK-. t y ^ ^ K l K l v ^ J M ^ t f . ^ ^ t f e - , W l V ^ w ^ ) ^ ^ r r ^ 0 ( r a e , ^ ^ [n (* C N o <c r m m \u00abr \u2022 T j c o t r ^ k . k . k . k k f b . e c ec \u00bbe \u00ab- c r \u00a9 i 2 S 2 2 S 2 S \u00a3 S 2 \u00a3 S 0 2 O O C O O O O O D O O O o o o \u00b0 o o c \u00bb o D o o o o o c > o o o o o b o o o \u2122 0 0 0 S S o o o o e o o o 0 0 0 0 0 o e o o 0 0 o e o o P 0 0 \u00b0 o o o o o \u00a9 \u00a9 e \u00a9 \u00a9 6 l^rjj ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ v r O N ^ c c ^ i r r f ^ ^ - i v r v ; ^ e \u00ab tcm * t s e - iy n w ^  \u00ab KI w rv rf S c o \u00a9 c o e o o D c c \u00a9 \u20ac O f > N e^t> O - C O N O ^ O \" O 9 \u00ab> t > \u2022-!\u00a9\"< o o a e ^ ^ ^ ^ C N c ^ c ^ c N C > f r i > . O N a e > e j ' ON CK o- ec \u00abr co er f \\ j \u2014 4 \u00a9 O N \u00a9 k . v O m rfKicvj*^(v\u00bb-\u00ab\u00a9ON \u00a9 k . v o i n r f t j - < > j - 4 \u00bb i \u00ab \u00a9 \u00a9 0 0 0 \u00a9 0 0 \u00a9 ^ ^ \u00ab - > 0 \u00a9 \u00a9 0 0 ON ON ON ON ON ON ON K!^\u00bb*eV^\u00a9ON\u00a9fN*.iJ\u00a9y^rff^tv^fV ^ \" ^ \" ' ^ ' l ^ ' ^ i k . ^ K . | k , l k . ^ l k k k \u00ab f w . ^ K . ^ r k > k k k k k k k K k K k k k k k k k k k k k k k N\u00bbK f iv ^ iv ^  \u00a9 e \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 in m K- k k k I IV CV IV C\\J| f\\J O O O \u00a9 ' \u00a9 i i ? >! i 11i V.l l . l i\u2022i UJ I f 1 < i> POj o IV wr PO N.i r v O \u2014 I T O , <X> I V O ^ \u2014 \u2014 C O K. K.) Pw \u2022w US OS <D' <JC P V C V C V O O O I I f U U i U l os <ff wr U\"s O US Cv wr e co H i n \u2014 tV <X i f vC I r v fv* r v I f j l u t M U J \\ 0 * 4 (v Pw \u00a9 wr ec \u2014 K.! co O PO* \u2014 C V lAi I T U 5 U S ' US C J f v r v j r v f v j I f M t v cv PJ cv cv icv cv cv cv cv CN. cv cv cv r v c v rvi cv fv cv rv cv c v ! cv r v i v cv i v cvj cv r v cv f v 0 0 0 0 0 JO O O O O O J O O O O O O O O O O O O i O C O O O O j O O o O o o'o O O O 1 i I * i i 1 I I t i I j i I i I i 11 i i g i i > ; i i i t i I; i I i i i i I I i i W U I U J U J U I U J W W U I U l U l U I W U I W U I u i U I U l U ' U J U l U J L J U J U J U J U U k J UJ U U J U U I I U I U U J U J \u2014 c v * - -er i n c t n K i K i t c o N ' i r i K o o o r v o t v o o cc JO co cv \u2022-< wr i n wri r v \u00a9 \u00a9 us or r\\j| *w ec wr \u2014 ^ Ift CD O C ^ l T H O k O W l V O * C w\u00ab K i t>> \u00a9 \u2014 tV L\"i *w \u00a9 \u00a9 PJ US \u00a9 m O \u00a9 PJ \u00a9 \u00a9' \u00a9 PO O M K! K \" J O C . * l P \u00a9 l C t \\ , C O C W c X - \u00bb C > ^, ^ k r v l C T ^ H a r e n ^ ^ ^ k a o i K . M P - O O Pw CC\u00bbW C\\J WT PW i H ^ C O | S . l \/ \\ ^ k e O O H ^ t V J ( \\ J O - < O O l \\ J \u00ab - k I V IT- O \u00a9 \u2014 Pw CO Iw JJ K l ^ wr wr PO r v CV \u2014 \u00a9 \u2014 o ec eo k >x m I T ^ H ^ t> \u00a9 rw *w Pwi o o o o cr e o t k k k cc ec ec; o o C O U S U S \u00a9 U S U > U S U S U S i n i n i n > U ^ I J ^ i n i n i n i A iad \u00a7 I c c c c e c c e c c : \u00a9 e \u00a9 o c c\u00bb o o o o o o o o i r - o i e o o o o o ; I i I i i c e o o e o o c o c o o o o c o c Q C c o o o o c c - e o c c o o o o o c ^ o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o i e e o o o o o e o o e o ; c c o c m m ; i r o o c o c > c o c c c e ! e o o o o o _ _ _ o e 3 i A i f f i A i A ! i f t o o o w h j f c . o t f i o o 6 o o \u00a9 o o f t | e o e e o o j o o w i f \\ c o c \u00a9 _ e o o o erf OD eo co eo* cc co ec co coi co co eo co co co) co co co co o o o c c c o o o o i o o c c c \u00a9 c e c e o o j c c o o o o i o o e o c o o c o c o c i o o o o c e l o e o e o o o o o o o o o o i o o o o o o o o o o o o ? c o o o o oi o o o o o \u00a9' o o o o o o i o o o o o o i O O O O t v >w> PO c v i o m i r cc c i x w us o i n ^ ; p w u 5 P w i n H O l i n w r i n p o i t * - u 3 i i n \\ C \u2014 wr o \u00a9 ; i w i n t n \u2014 wr c o i o PO \u00a9 m t v us i \u00a9 o PW H K ) > O J I T i I Q w \u2022 \u00ab O <#jW \u00bb0 # O O ( D | # N t> N O O j O k \\ 0 i f i (>\u00bb I A | 4 i \/ W N H H J w i M ^ i n * W i W W on f y (\\l r x j i o N l\\J J \u2014 \u2014 \u00a9 o o o o o o \u00a9! \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u2014 \u2014 o o o o o o o ' c o c o c o co co \u00a9 i eo cc e o e o c o e O ' C O c o e e c o c o c o i c o c o c o c o e o c o CO CO CO CO * r . Pwcotvjcv o <- - <-< w \u00ab\u00bb wr a? \u2014 o c c v o i v j ' O i\/> \u00bb \u2022 ix * o is. \\C a c*i p> M \u00bb- <x wr o ; cc cv us wr as co \u2022 wr in o o Pw pw \u2014 o < p o \u2014 v s i v c v \u00a9 i \u00a9 \u2014 c o i n wr \u00a9 o r v r v or co \u00a9 i \u00bb n i y k k o k i n ^ o k P . M * T O iw i v i \u2014 r v or t \u00a3 H C M K . M o o c m k i r e r K . cv P^- is. ^ , as r v a- o o r i ^ t r o n . i n O C N J I V O C V O \u00a9 \u00a9 C V I V \u00a9 a s e v e r c c * PW i n PW | P \" ro or or I V \u00a9 i rv PW o c \u2014 po as iniPw o w r eofcw or j \u00a9 \u00ab \u2014 PO K . N . ' o as O *O P J C O I K . I V J P W US \u00a9 PO \u2014 PW i n ^ tsi <M e K k kO * o \u00a9 i a s \u2014 f v i n \u00a9 o ! o p w u s i n i v \u2014\u2022 \u2014\u00ab \u2014 . \u2014 \u2014 o o o c o \u2022> o eo Pw k i K . Pw vo -v. pw u s u s us i n i n i n u r . o r PO < t v CM CNJ rjtpv; i v r v t v t v I V P - J \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 , ^ . _ \u00ab^i \u2014 <^< \u2014 \u2014 \u00bb \u2022 ^ j * w \u00bb\u2022 \u2022i r v cv cv i v r v t v i \u2014 cv cv r v PO C V U V C V C V C V o o o wD ! \u00a9 wr wr PO o wr wr US Pw INT wr US o tw CO \u2022\u00bb *\u2022 PO O \u00a9 POiPw us cc \u00a9 wr Pw \u2014 CP \u00a9 \u00a9 *o <yi iw\u00bb ec \u00a9 Pw us - i n us us us o CO PJ co >in as Pw us us eo PO \u2014 us \u2014 O wr ieo Pw Iw mm \u2022\u00bb PO i n i n O i n \u2022 o US US o in o wr \u00a9 o t v \u00a9 wr cv i n !\u2022* PO \u00a9 o \u00a9 PO IPO \u2014 cv o wr cv po i n ' O O t v Pw i n *w Pw o cc o O : CC CO CC U? eo wr ec \u2022\u20224 Pw cv us w r ' K . us i n o PO us m po PO o \u00bbw .wr wr wr us o i n . o i n o cv o o OS \u2022w IPO PO Iw Ox PO o WP \u2022o eo CO o ON i tV PO ON CO PO t v ON Pw O wr i n o . t v CC PO Pw US -\u00bb us \u2014 i n i n o ; \u2014 Iw \u00a9 wr \u00a9 -Pw t n Pw PO o C O IO wr e o ec Pw wr cc Pw ico wr O o Pw m PO o fw Pw wr O CO i n PO \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 Pw CC cc us wr ' t v wr i n us \u00a9 Pw 'US m i n us e o c o ; o r> O ON r> en cc er c r CO Pw k!k K. US us US us us US ir i n i n i i i \u00a9 o o o \u00a9 \u00a9 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o \u00a9 o \u00a9 \u00a9 o ' o o c o o \u00a9 o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o o c o c o c \u00a9 o o \u00a9 o o c c o o o j o o o o o c , c o o c c \u00a9 o o o o o \u00a9 o o o \u00a9 o o o o \u00a9 c c o c o o c p o c v o wr-er \u2014 wr k k O ' k Pw \u00a9Pw wr P O i u s*i \u2014 o w r i n ' o wr o cv t v P O wr cv o \u00a9 \u2014 us ipj \u00a9 us us wr ON i n wr k w \u00a9 P O ; U S U S \u00bb \u00ab P W O w r - * p o ! p w \u00a9 t v u s \u00a9 u S i w r o \u00a9 \u2014 PwPw!PwUSUspw C C P W I P ^ P W p o p o f v \u2014 \u00a9 c v w r - * w r - * p o i v r v t T N P w ! i n i n p w o pn pw f** p i c K o o o x O K O c c o en eo co ice co o o o o >o cc eo c i US US -US US us o o \u00a9 P w \\ D i n w r p o f v \u2014 c v \u2014 o o \u00a9 P w u s i n w r p o r v \u2014 cv \u2014 o o \u00a9 P w v s < n wr ( o c v \u00ab - c v \u2014 o o \u00a9 p w v O i n o r p o t v \u2014 OJ \u2014 \u00a9 o \u2014 \u00a9 O C \u00a9 \u00a9 C C \u00a9 \u00a9 i * * \u2014 \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 o o \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 * - \u2014 \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 o o o o o . \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 \u00a9 c o o \u00a9 o o o o \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 \u00a9 m m m m i m m m m i n t n . a r o r w r w r \u2022\u00bb \u00bb \u00bb o r w r \u00abe>wr w r w r i p o p o p o ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ o ^ ^ p o p v i v c v i v c v c v r j r v i v f v i v c v \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 . O \u00a9 O O | 0 I I I I I y U J y I4J] uj i - \u00bb CM * | \u00ab -o i n i n r v j o c ec ec rf: \u2014 cc o \u00ab\u2014 o ; o i n rf rf rf! rf CV CJ l\\J O O O I I I LU Ul UJ \u00abD k tvJ N . \u00a9 i n \u2014 CO rf K. ec ec. rf rf rf rf r v t v leg O O i O l i l l UJ UJ UJ \u2014 \u00a9 I \u00a9 K> Cvji CO r\\j t n . k . m ^ ( v e o \u00a9 i o i n i i n CV CM CM CM CVCO CM CV CV CM OJ, 0 0 0 0 O O O O O O O i 1 I I I I I t I I I I U f U J W U J LJ-jUJ LU UJ UJ UJ UJ< O W. rf K-l \u00a9 IT- rf rf rf OIK 1 . H ^ I V J H t f K l i j 3 0 l V f V | K i f v j \u00bb - i * ^ \u2014 KlleO O \u00a9 Kl O CO CV CM CO CO CM CV | CM CO *V CV IV CM 0 0 O O O O j O O P o o o 1 I I I I I UJ UJ UJ UJ UJ U l \u00a9 KI o ec i n rf ON o f v i C O O \u2014 CV i n i n m i n m 1 0 0 0 o | e 0 0 0 0 0 o o o o j o o o o o o O C \u00a9 \u00a9 1 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 0 0 m m in m ; m in \u00a9 o m in 0 0 c O O O O O O O O O c o o O O O O O O o m i n o* k < i m M KijON i n * r i n m o co rf k- n o ! \u2014 ek KI K> rf o M M M l\\J f - H i t \u2014 C - - O O i n i n m m i n i n l m i n m i n i n rf 1 1 1 1 1 1 u u u u u y fVCMCMtVCVCMlCVCM 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 e o t 1 1 l l 1 i 1 ui u u i u u u i i u i UJ rfu;inrfO^|rfrfc>c>vCcclrfk> i n i n w ^ \u00ab | i n i n < H \u00a9 i n j \u2014 i n eo cc K I o e> K I o u3 k \u00abr k N CN CC k r k o o o o o c o o o e o o o o o c o o m m i n i n i n i n i c k n r \u00bbc k - i \u2014 i r KI i n i n i v \u2014 i v i i n i n cc cc ec ec ec coiec K. CM-CO o o f I U J w rf K l O NC ON f v IV O o c o o o o i o o o o o o t c o o o o o 0 0 0 0 0 0 l o 0 0 0 0 0 ) o 0 0 0 0 0 o c o c o o io c c c m i n i i n i r e e m m i n i n i n t n o m i i n m o o k k i k k O O C M I M o o o o e o i c c c o o o o c o i o o o c- e c o o o i e m in O O O m m O t O Ik, k. co en eo eoico cr \u00a9 .ON o \\ 0 0 0 0 0 0 e o o o o o 0 0 0 0 O O X IO N I * . O N O N O D ee> |eo t c t> o o 0 0 0 0 ) 0 0 0 0 o c j c o c 0 0 \u00a9 1 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 o o l o o o o c o 0 0 \u00a9 o \u2022 o o 0 0 \u00a9 \u00a9 i o 0 0 0 0 o i o o o o \u00a9 0 1 0 o 0 0 o o C V \u00a9 rf K-IO 0 * K l \u00a9 K . 0 N J m \u00ab > H K ) \u00a9 O r f | l k \u00a9 K N \u00a9 CM \u00a9 i\u00a9 H. 00 K. O- \u2014 i n \u00a9 \u00a9 lA l r f Kl Kl \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 JIM CV IV \u2014 K l K l f V l V K l K ^ K l O (ON CD CO \u00a9 K . i n b o o o o o b o e j o 0 0 0 0 \u00a9 O O O I \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 0 0 I\u2014 rf IVJ \u00a9 \u2014 K- |\u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 IV rf ON K ) i u \u2014 \u2014 ON.\u00a9NK..W'ONONO\\ O O O O c o 0 0 \u00a9 \u00a9 o \u00a9 KI i n rf ON IV CM \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 rf m m e \u00a9 c I\u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 k m \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON \u00a9 ON ON QNJ\u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 I IP ec k. INJ .T K l \u00ab\u2022\u2022* \u00a9 CO ON rf \\ \u00a3 N . M ** K l KN \u00a9 N . m eo o KI i n i n rf o k . \u00a9 m \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 o rf rf rf -K l \u2014 rf \u00a9 C K N C V \u00a9 m | \u00a9 r f f V \u00a9 \u00a9 ON \u00a9cvoomoNioNKiON-M\u00a9 ON \u2014 K N r f . \u00a9 K i m i r f \u00a9 r f \u00a9 e > O \u2022 ^ f N J * H r f \u00a9 K \u00bb I O N l N J - H \u00a9 k . \u00a9 \u00a9 rf \u2014 \u00a9 K. r\u2014 i n \u00a9 i n \u2014 rf i r o k . i n \u2014 BO \u00a9 ori CV IV ON k . \u00a9 \u00a9 T V r f \u2014 f\u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 O N \u00a9 p r f o e v m c K O O r f rf \u00a9 i n ro i \u00a9 \u00a9 K\u00bb k . O t\\J C O N K K! ec O |ON k i n ON \u00a9 t v j i r f r f M O k k . O IT. \u00a9 mm k . ON rf \u00a9 \u00a9N o r v - k k a r v i v ro i v cv i v r v f v r v CM n v co i v cv cv cv lev KI * n c o i v ^ r v p * K i K i c o k v f M f v < v c o K i K ^ K i f ^ K i c o c o i w i 1 O O O O I O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O O l o O O O O O j O O O O O \u00a9 t o \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 O O m O N O <\"C \u00a9 lA k. ON O rf CC O \u2014 O K i f # h M N Ml K I w i a k \u00abe e* i r JCN c o o o e i M p o M K i i f P i D O O O O O D O O O O O D O O O O O i O O O O \u00a9 O O O O o o o o o o o o o o o o p e o o o o i o o o o 0 0 0 0 0 ro \u2014 K i r o o \u00a9 D N r o o \u00a9 o i n K i O K ( O N r v i k . i i v * H i v r f r f \u2014 \u00a9 O ^ O N eo \u00a9 i n i n i n rf r v r v r v \u2014 KN O N p \u00a9 r f r f \u00a9 O N | \u00a9 o k . m i n rf KI \u2014 \u00a9* k k k k - \u00a9 U5 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 k . \u00a9 l \u00a9 k . \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 k > i k . k . P ^ l k > ( t e k > I W k . f W l k > \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 l j D \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 f \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 t o \u00a9 i n j ! : \u00a9 K - \u00a9 i n r f K i i \\ j \u2014 i v \u2014 p o N \u00ab k i c i n L r \u00bb \u00ab N H P d - , b o \u00a9 k \u00a9 i n rfKit%j \u2014 r o \u2014 \u00a9ONeok.\u00a9inrfKit . \\ j \u2014 C M \u2014 b o x \u00a9 C O O O j O O O O \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 o o o o o f o o o o \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 c o o o c 0 0 0 0 \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 c c \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 0 0 \u2014 \u2014 \u2022* \u2014 ,\u2014 \u2014 \u2014 O O O O O O O O D O O e O N O N D N O N O x O N O N O N O N O N O N O X \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 ^ ^ ^ ^ ^ K - ^ k - K ^ ^ K - ^ ^ K ^ N - ^ ^ ^ k ^ k - ^ k - ^ K - \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 2 2 8 TABLE A - l l TAX RATES DATE = Y e a r and Month o f E n t r y NTX = F e d e r a l C o r p o r a t e Income Tax R a t e PDD = P r o v i n c i a l Abatement f o r O n t a r i o OTR = O n t a r i o C o r p o r a t e Income Tax R a t e DATE 7912 7911 \" 7 9 1 0 \" 7909 7908 7907 7906 7905 - 7 90*\u2014 7903 7902 7901 7812 7811 -r810-7809 7 808 7807 7806 7805 780V-7803 7802 7801 7712 7711 7 T 1 0 -7709 7708 7 707 7706 7705 r r o v \u2014 7703 7702 7701 7612 7611 NIX EM -rtyro-7609 7608 7607 7606 7605 760V-7603 7602 7601 7512 7511 4 6.OOOO 1 6 . 0 0 0 0 -*~6T0OO0~ 46.OOOO 46.OOOO 46.OOOO 4 6 . 0 0 0 0 46.OOOO - 4 6 ^ 0 0 0 0 -46.OOOO 46.OOOO 46.OOOO 4 6 . 0 0 0 0 4 6 . 0 0 0 0 - 4 t r r o o o T r 4 6 . 0 0 0 0 46.OOOO 4 6 . 0 0 0 0 46.OOOO 4 5 . 0 0 0 0 \" 4 6 T O 0 0 0 \" 4 6 . 0 0 0 0 46.OOOO 4 6 . 0 0 0 0 4 6 . 0 0 0 0 46.OOOO - 4 6 T 0 0 t ) 0 -46.OOOO 46.OOOO 4 6 . 0 0 0 0 4 6 . 0 0 0 0 46.OOOO - 4 6 ^ 0 0 0 0 -4 6 . 0 0 0 0 4 6.OOOO 4 6 . 0 0 0 0 46.OOOO 46.OOOO - 4 6V0OO0-46.OOOO 46.OOOO 4 6 . 0 0 0 0 4 6 . 0 0 0 0 46.OOOO - V 6 r 0 0 0 0 ~ 46.OOOO 46.OOOO 46.OOOO 4 7 . 0 0 0 0 47.OOOO 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 \" 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 \" 10.0000 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 10.0000 - r o v o o o o -1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 - n n n o o o Q -10.0000 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 10.0000 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 \" T O T O W O \" 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 10.0000 10.0000 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 - t O T O O O H -IO.OOOO 10.0000 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 \" T O T O W O r 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 9 0 1 0 . 0 0 9 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 -TOTOOOO-1 0 . 0 0 9 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 10.0090 1 0 . 0 0 9 0 -10T0\"0O0-1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 9 0 1 0 . 0 0 9 0 10.0090 10.0000 QIR 14.00 00 14.09 00 \"1470900 14.00 00 14.09 00 1 4 . 0 9 0 0 14.09 00 1 4 . 0 ) 00 ~1\u00abT09T)0-1 4 . 0 ) 0 0 14.09 00 14.09 00 1 3.09 00 1 3.09 00 1 3.09 00 13.09 00 1 3.09 00 l 3.09 00 13.00 00 i 3.09 00 DATE 7510 7509 NIX 47.0 000 47 .OOOO 10.OOOO 10.OOOO T 5 W ~ 7 5 0 7 7 5 0 6 7 5 05 7 5 0 4 7 5 0 3 \"47 . 0 0 0 0 4 7 . 0 0 0 0 4 7 . 0 00 0 4 7 . 0 0 0 0 5 0 . 7 0 0 0 5 0 . 7 0 0 0 7502 7501 7412 7411 7410 7409 r w 7407 7406 7 405 7404 7403 10.OOOO 10.OOOO 10.OOOO 10.OOOO 10.OOOO 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 5 0 . 7 000\" 5 0 . 7 0 0 0 5 1 . 8 0 0 0 51.800 0\" 51 . 8 0 0 0 51 . 8 0 ) 0 \" I O T W O 0 \" 10.OOOO 10.OOOO 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 10.OOOO '51V8000\" 5 1 . 8 0 0 0 5 1 . 6 0 0 0 5 1 . 8 0 0 0 4 8 . 0 0 0 0 4 8 . 0 0 0 0 1 3. 09 00 1 3 . 0 ) 0 0 13.00 00 13.09 00 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 12.00 00 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 10.OOOO 10.OOOO 10.OOOO 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 T W Z \" 7401 7312 7311 T310 7309 - T 2 v o o t n r 12.00 00 12.0900 12.00 00 12.00 00 12.00 00 43T0 (voir 4 8 . 0 0 0 0 4 9 . 0 0 0 0 4 9 . 0 0 0 0 4 9 . 0 0 0 0 4 9 . 0 0 0 0 \"7108' 7307 7306 7305 7304 7303 49-0 09 0 ' 49.0 09 0 4 9 . 0 0 9 0 49.0 00 0 4 9 . 0 0 0 0 4 9 . 0 0 9 0 \"T2TO000\" 12.00 00 12.0900 12.09 00 12.0900 1 2.0) 00 \"TTTOrOO\" 1 2 . 0 ) 0 0 12.09 00 1 2 . 0 ) 0 0 1 2 . 0 9 0 0 1 2 . 0 ) 0 0 T O T W O O \" 10.OOOO 10.OOOO 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 10.OOOO 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 10.OOOO\" 10.OOOO 10.OOOO 1 0 . 0 0 00 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 10.OOOO -rrorr 7301 7212 7211 7210 7209 \" V 9 . 0 00 0 \" 4 9 - 0 0 0 0 4 6 . 5 0 0 0 4 5 . 5 0 0 0 4 6 . 5 0 0 0 4 6 . 5 0 0 0 T O T W O O \" 10.OOOO 1 0 . 0 0 00 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 ~72W~ 7207 7206 7205 7204 7201 r270XOO\" 12.09 00 1 2 . 0 ) 0 0 12.09 00 12.09 00 12.0900 4 6 . 5 0 0 0 4 6 . 5 0 0 0 46.5090 4 6 . 5 0 0 0 4 6 . 5 0 0 0 46.5000 \"72U2\" 7201 7112 7111 7110 no9 roToooo\" 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 io.oooo 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 10.OOOO 4 0 . 5 0 0 0 46.f190 46.7100 46.710 0 46-7100 T07007V0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1090000 10.OOOO 10.OOOO 10.OOOO QIR 1 2 . 0 0 9 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 MIL 7108 7107 tux 4 6 . 7 1 0 0 4 6 . 7 1 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 9 0 T!T70\"OW\" 1 2 . 0 0 9 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 9 0 7106 7105 7 104 7103 7102 7101 EM 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 QIR 12.OOOO 12.OOOO 1 2 . 0 0 3 0 \" 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 9 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 7011 7010 7 009 7008 7007 ~\"7W6\" 7005 7004 \"7 00 3\" 7002 7001 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 12.OOOO 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 12.OOOO 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 12.OOOO 12.OOOO 1 2 . 0 0 9 9 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 ) 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 \" 5 T T 4 T 0 O \" 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 000\" 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 12.OOOO 12.OOOO 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 12.OOOO 12.OOOO 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 \" 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 9 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 rerowir 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 9 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 ) 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 6912 6911 6910 6909 6908 6907 ~5\"9Tnr 6905 6904 6903 6902 6901 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 12.OOOO 12.OOOO 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 12.OOOO 12.OOOO 12.OOOO ~ r i m oo\" 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 \"51.4100 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 10.OOOO 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 \"6\"8T2\" 6811 6810 5 80 9 6808 6807 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 \"10.0000 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 12.OOOO 12.OOOO 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 12.OOOO 12.OOOO 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1.4100 12.OOOO 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 12.OOOO 12.OOOO 12.OOOO 12.OOOO 12 . OW0~ 1 2 . 0 0 9 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 9 0 1 2 . 0 0 9 0 \"1770 0 9 0 1 2 . 0 0 9 9 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 9 0 1 2 . 0 0 9 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 ~6\"80~6\" 6805 6804 6803 6802 6801 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 5 1 . 4 1 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 10.OOOO 12.OOOO 12.OOOO 12.OOOO 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 12.OOOO 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 6712 6 7 U 6710 6709 6708 6707 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 - 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 00 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 1 0 . 0 0 0 0 50.OOOO 50.OOOO 5 0.OOOO 5 0 . OOOO 50.OOOO 50.OOOO 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 12.OOOO 12.OOOO 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 9 . 0 0 0 0 9 . 0 0 0 0 9 . 0 0 0 0 9 . 0 0 0 0 9 - 0 0 0 0 9 . 0 00 0 12.OOOO 12.OOOO 1 2 . 0 0 0 0 12.OOOO 12.OOOO 12.OOOO J O J to u3 230 TABLE A-12 COMPONENTS OF THE PROFIT VARIABLE DATE = Y e a r and Month o f E n t r y BLAND = Repayment o f M o r t g a g e P r i n c i p a l on L a n d SUB = T o t a l S u b d i v i s i o n C o s t s BLDG = T o t a l B u i l d i n g and L o t Improvement C o s t s FINC = T o t a l F i n a n c i n g C o s t s ( I n t e r e s t Payments and F l o t a t i o n C o s t s ) HOLD = H o l d i n g C o s t s T h a t Have Not A l r e a d y Been D e d u c t e d i n P r e v i o u s P e r i o d s ITAX = Income T a x e s HP = S e l l i n g P r i c e o f a S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d House PF = G r o s s P r o f i t a b i l i t y R a t i o t C O H M IM \u00a9 IM O l\\J O \u2014 ro ro i\\j CM o o o rw Pw i n i n us co us o ON in \u00ab* Ml vO IA 03 vO UD Pw o - \u2014 in CO I\\J cj PO1 ir) ro PO \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 i n <r w r i u r \u2014 \u2014* o uo <r o< K j OJ \u2014 \u2014 OS ON UD *o CC pw Pw K\u00bb| wr in in: in us K. \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 o \u00a9 \u00a9 231 K i PO K. o r ro t \\ i wr \u00ab-> \u00ab-i U3 or wrj K. o w in c* K . CO CO CO CO Chi o o o o \u00a9 \u00a9J CJ \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 \u2014JCMUDUD, UDUD US] us PO \u00a9 wr eo us \u00a9 i n us i n o \\ rw| \u00a9 CM \u00a9 o \u00a9 ON \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 *Wj or \u2014 i n t\\) wr u* \u00a9 t n PO c j us \u2014 ro K. r o ro re \u2014 co OJ r o ro wr i n ro \u2014 \u00a9 \u2014 ro i n ON ro K. CJ i n ON c \u2014 \u00a9 cd i n i n ID uo \u00a9 m l o o o , \u00a9 \u00a9 wr ON \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 wr wr *o \u00a9 in or wr o | \u00a9 pw ON> \u2014 us ro in wr wr in us us K . or wr>or us ro ro ON r o us U3 wr ro ro CC \u00ab- ON rw us PW us in CM CJ IM wr US US US US \u2014 \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 ro \u00bbo tn n US' us us US \u2014 \u2014 ON wr US ON ON ON \u2014 \u00a9 or \u00a9 \u00a9 PO \u00a9 #w Pwllw fvl ISj! ro \u00a9 \u00a9 ; \u00a9 wr or o u s i n i n \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 ! \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 us UD USNO US US US US US ' us us \u00a9 \u2014 \u00bb CJ Pw \u2014 : t M \u00a9 P O US K> us in > i n 'US \u2022 OT;CJ O \u00a9 \u00a9 \u2022\u00ab\u2022; wr \u2014 US' ro ro ro] in wr \u2014 co IM cj \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9\u2022 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9j US US US' US US US1 PO ON ON \u2014 or | ISJ \u2014 ON US \u00a9 Pw wr in in in in iNj CJ oo \u00a9; \u00a9 \u00a9 ON PO IM CM. tM CM \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 & \u2014 w*4 Pw Pw Pw- PO pw pw. US US US: US US US ON i n PO; or \u00a9 ml \u2014 \u00a9 CJ: ON t n POI UD US UD UD UD USj \u00a9 ro \u00a9 j in PO in ON us *o; c j iw us O PO CO' CD \u00a9 Pw i n CJ us i us us (NJ| Pw \u2014 rJ\\ifN ON 1-1 M H H H O l us us us. us us us or wr \u00a9;US ro us I o m pwlwr wr \u00a9 ON tM fSJiPO CJ CJ] us or wriN- m po CNJ PW PwtPw O WP \u00a9N \u00a9 CC CD ON \u00a9 in in in in m in PO O fNJiPw \u2014 \u00a9 wr \u00a9 wr ON m o o o \u2014 Pw pw pwlpw PO PO PO i n \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 us i n i n i n . i n Pw wr i \\ J :\u00a9 cj Pw wr-\u00a9 ON CD l\\J Pw. vO \u2014 \u00a9 CJ US or or PO i ON \u00a9 us or i n us wr \u00a9 CJ \u2014 ONiUS VC-INJ \u00a9 \u2022 ON C J us \u00a9 i n PW ON] US \u2014 o o r in or PO t n US PO i n \u00a9 \u2014 INJ \u00a9 ISJ m P O \u00a9:wr us iro PO Pw OS Pw POjPO CO \u2014 ro ON Pw us wr Pw IM US U3 Or PO ON wr in u s ! \u00a9 \u00a9 evil PO r o POJKI wr or \u2022 o \u00a9 \u00a9 ! . # \u2014 \u00a9 PO CD us! o \u00a9 \u2014 i n t \\ j PO! wr PO wr[ or m m; i n t n i n us o C J C J wr \u00a9 \u2014 o IM v3 IM us o or \u00a9 OS O N \u00a9 \u00a9 K \u00a9 i\\j us! \u00a9 wr \u00a9 k o us in: in or PO PW CM PO! or ON or pw \u00a9 i n , \u2014 ON m i n \u00bbw o o us co in in v3: us us us cj us K..\u2014 m ON po c j pwj Pw us i n ON \u2014 \u2014 wr Pw us Pw ON ONjPO \u00a9 \u00a9 cv) CMPO m Pw Pw PwjPw rw Pw PO fc* \u2014 r i n o po i n or \u2022\u00bb i ro CJ IM o IM wriPw wr or \u2014 m P O t \u2014 rw us i n ro wr i i n \u2014 ON us us us:us Pw us K. \u2014 po'iw \u2014 in \u2014 \u2014 \u00a9ION ON \u00a9 \u2014 in PO \u2022 in ON \u00a9 \u00a9:pw \u2014 PO U V l w Pw Pw Pw : UD ON PO P w . \u2014 \u2022w Pw US US \u2014 \u00a9 ON I \u2014 \u2014 O IM CJ IM l \u2014 WT ON \u2022 Pw US \u00a9 \u00a9 |IM CM i n , o r ON i O ro IM ON ON \u2014 \u00a9 ON ON ON !\u00a9 Pw US CO CD in K* ro CJ \u2014 \u00a9 I \u00a9 CO PwPw Pw Pw ON cc pw.us i n or US US US! US US US PO CM IM' \u2014 \u00a9 ON us us i n - t n t n \u00a9 pw us i n wr r o -ON tO Pw POilM CM CM us in wr PO IM C J IM CJ iw i n \u2014 pw us us IT CC pw PO CD UD PO \u00bbw PO i\u00a9 PO wr wr \u2014 PO IP I\/N. \u2014 i n PO us \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 tM Pw Pw \u2014 ON CM i n wr CM i t n ON us in \u00a9 US; \u00a9 us \u00a9 co CM ov us us wr \u2014 PO WT; UD \u2014 \u00a9 i n co wr i \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u2014 ON i n i o r m i n po \u2014 us i\u00a9 wr \u00a9 us rw \u00a9IUS c j m ON rw m CM in m \u00a9tin U 3 P O \u2014 CM ON c j wr <w wr us t n wr-or or wr Pw CM \u00a9 \u00a9 m CJ CJ;ON wr \u00a9 Uo O CM ON PO iM |\u00a9 Ov \u00a9 iPw Pw Pw PO POipO PO PO US ON CJ 1 \u00a9 CM US in PO wr PW \u00ab pw \u2022 o ON CM \u00a9 ro ON Pw UD us in wr CM PO PO PO :PO PO PO f*1 t\u00a3 in t \u00bb o M Jf w to in CM >* CM o CD ~ * 0 0 \u00a9 f> l\\J W tn \u2022* CM .# \u2022\u00bb \u2022er \u2014 UD wr \u2014 Pw ON \u00a9 \u2014 ON ION US tO \u2014 \u2014 O O \u00a9 ON IPO PO PO ;PO PO CM iin \u00a9 ON UD CJ o-pw i n \u00a9 ' t n us ro; CJ ON PwiUS us i n ; ON CO \u00a9 ; \u00a9 tO tO\\ C J t\\] M U M C J CJj ON PO \u00a9!PV \u00a9 I Pw PO ec. ON \u00a9 \u00a9I or no \u00a9 \u2014 wr PO \u00a9 \u00a9 P w \u00a9 Pw Pw CM CM I M : C J IM COi C J PO \u2022 f CM UD \u00a9 i \u2014 IM i \u2022 \u2022 \u2022 wr in rs i CO ON US)\u00a9 ON \u2014 \u2014 ON * 0 \u00a9 O IM Pw Pw \u00a9!ON ON OV IM CM CM CM CJ tM Pw UD Pw IV i n \u2014 o tM \u2014 wr wr \u2014 O \u00a9 \u00a9.ON *0 \u2014 ON ON ON CO \u00a9 \u00a9 CM CO CM CM CM CM \u2014 IM fw ON \u00a9 in ON \u00a9 Pw -UD IM \u2014 \u2014 O Pw Pw pw Pw tM C J CM CM \u00a9 CM \u00a9 CM to i n ON Pw \u2014 \u00a9 ON O \u2014 US Pw Pw ON US US Iw Iw or or wr or US US ON :pO ro PO ] us \u2014 ON in CJ Pw \u2014 rw 'Pw eo in IPW PW us us m m or or wr > or wr wr \u00a9 ON \u00ab Pw IM ro \u2014 po kJ3 us wr J \u2014 \u00a9 us in rw pw .ON \u00a9 CM PO \u00a9 rw i n PO \u00a9 Or US Pw ON Pw ON PO \u00bbw in in PO CM PO us c j ON wr \u2014 iw wr \u2014 us tM CM \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 \u00a9 wr wr or i j r wr wr PO CM o ON UD UD \u00a9 CO \u2014 CO tM \u2014 -PO \u2014 \u00a9 O rw wr PO co \u2014 \u00bb i i n i n i n ' PO'PO PO I i \u2022 or \u00bbw \u2014 PO uD ro ON ON CO UD in in i CO' CO Pw I O CM PO \u00a9 t n US \u00a9 ON H O C P . Pw Iw US US PO PO PO PO t n \u00a9 wr \u00a9 CM IM vft US I i n \u00a9 \u00a9 wr ION PW i n i n Cl ' \u2014 US CM PO or us in us in in or in in wr wr IPw i n PO iM \u2014 ON I in ON PO ; \u2014 ON C J \u00a9 Iw UD WT IM o o wr us c j \u00a9 \u00a9 iw in PO \u2014 ON Pw PO \u2014 \u2014 PN\u00bb us IM k n PO \u00a9 to i n CM CJ IM wr i n PO i n wr PO PW \u2022\u00bb PO m \u00a9 i n \u2014 ON ON US O Pw WT \u2014 \u2014 CJ wr CJ 5 ICQ \u00a9 Pw \u00a9 t n o rw i n or ON C OI C (CJ ON Pw tM CC PO r o \u2014 \u00a9 wr ON m ON CO \u00a9 Pw Pw \u00a9 po \u00a9 ro \u00a9 in I\u00a9 us K. ON wr |Pw us us in wr wr \u2014 CM o i n i n c I\u00a9 us ro o \u00a9 us PO PO ro CJ IM Pw CJiPO PO \u00a9 iro Pw in ro \u2014 \u00a9 CJ \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 o ON rO US \u00a9 O- PW us wr \u00a9 us IM ON o O \u00a9.Pw pw us Pw Pw US U3 US US to CO \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 O \u00a9 J\u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 '\u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 O \u00a9 j\u00a9 \u00a9 to to to to o o o \u00a9 \u00a9 o \u00a9 CO CD \u00a9 CD tO \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 CO \u00a9 - \u00a9 to to O O O O O O CO \u00a9 \u00a9 co \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 ON UD wr in PO in in kw. wr o pw PO us in in in wr wr us US US US UD us co \u00a9 ec \u00a9 co to \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 o \u00a9 .. \u2014 UD \u2014 o i n [ \u2014 UD \u2014 o \u00a9 Pw CM to PO \u00a9 Iin O UD \u2014 [wr PO PO CM M \u2014 I\u00a9 \u00a9 ON ON k o u D u s u s u s u s l u s u s t n i n [CO oo \u00a9 co \u00a9 to \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 CO \u00a9 I\u00a9 o o \u00a9 IM \u2014 O ON \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 \u00a9 O* ON ON ON \u00a9 pw us i n or ro \u00a9 \u00a9 O O \u00a9 ON ON ON O ON 0 S CJ \u2014 CM \u2014 \u00a9 ON o \u00a9 \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 \u00a9 ON ON CO CO CO 00 to iw us i n or PO \u00a9 O O O O O cc \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 cc jCJ \u2014 C J '\u2014 \u00a9 ON O \u00a9 \u00ab - < \u2014 \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 Pw pw Pw Pw cc pw us iri or PO i \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 o Pw pw Pw Pw pw Pw C J \u2014 C J \u2014 \u00a9 ON \u00a9 \u00a9 \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 \u00a9 Pw Pw UD UD UD UD j\u00a9 iw us i n or PO liM \u2014 t v \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 o o l o o \u2014 \u2014 jusus u s u s u s u s i u s u s i n i n MIE RLAJffi SUB. BLDG. UK HOLD. U M UR PE ' 5 1 0 1 7 5 . 0 8 \" 5 8 6 5 . 5 8 3 3 2 4 9 . 6 2 6 9 5 . 0 7 \" ~ 1 2 2 . 5 5 6 9 7 2 . 9 6 5 6 5 0 9 . 3 \" 1 . 1 6 2 4 6 7 5 0 9 1 7 3 . 0 8 5 8 2 6 . 9 6 3 3 0 5 8 . 1 2 6 6 2 . 5 4 1 2 1 . 4 9 6 8 8 4 . 5 5 5 6 0 7 5 . 1 1 . 1 6 1 6 7 ' 5 0 8 1 7 3 . 0 8 5 7 8 2 . 1 3 5 3 1 1 3 . 5 2 5 5 9 . 9 8 1 2 0 . 4 3 6 8 7 4 . 1 6 5 5 9 5 1 . 1 1 . 1 6 1 1 8 7 5 0 7 ITT^yV 5 7 3 7 7 T T 3273(571 2 5 1 6 . 4 2 1 1 9 . 3 8 6 9 1 3 . 5 5 5 5 5 7 8 . 9 1. 1 6 3 2 2 7 5 0 6 1 7 3 . 0 8 5 7 1 1 . 6 9 3 1 9 1 0 . 6 2 4 4 6 . 7 2 9 8 . 8 3 6 9 1 0 . 6 9 5 4 5 1 7 . 4 1 . 1 6 5 7 7 7 5 0 5 1 7 3 . 0 8 5 6 9 8 . 8 8 3 1 5 2 4 . 7 2 4 0 0 . 7 9 9 7 . 7 7 7 0 5 3 . 0 6 5 4 4 6 2 . 3 1 . 1 6 9 8 7 7 5 0 4 1 7 3 . 0 8 5 5 9 2 . 4 8 3 0 8 4 3 . 9 2 3 3 1 7 5 3 \" 9 6 . 71 7 8 3 7 . 7 9 5 4 1 8 3 . 2 \" \" \" 1 . 1 6 3 1 9 7 5 0 3 1 7 3 . 0 8 5 5 7 9 . 6 7 3 0 6 3 ? . 6 2 3 0 7 . 5 1 9 5 . 5 5 7 7 3 6 . 5 7 5 3 7 4 9 . 0 1 . 1 6 2 2 1 7 5 0 2 1 7 3 . 0 8 5 6 7 3 . 2 7 3 0 5 0 3 . 4 2 3 4 8 . 3 3 9 4 . 5 8 7 7 9 0 . 7 7 5 3 7 4 9 . 0 1 . 1 6 3 7 0 7 5 0 1 1 7 3 7 0 8 5 6 6 6 . 8 7 503V47T6 2 4 9 6 . 89\" 9 3 . 5 2 7 8 0 0 . 1 3 5 3 7 4 9 . 0 1 . 1 6 4 9 1 7 4 1 2 1 7 3 . 0 8 5 5 5 4 . 0 5 3 0 5 2 1 . 9 2 5 8 5 . 2 2 9 2 . 4 6 7 9 6 8 . 4 7 5 5 8 1 1 . 0 1 . 1 6 0 8 0 7 4 1 1 1 7 3 . 0 8 5 6 4 7 . 6 8 3 1 2 5 2 . 4 2 6 4 8 . 2 2 9 1 . 4 0 7 4 3 7 . 9 6 5 3 8 1 1 . 0 1 . 1 4 9 9 7 7 4 1 0 1 7 3 . 0 8 5 5 3 4 . 8 5 3 0 9 5 7 ; 5 2 6 6 6 7 6 4 9 0 . 3 4 ~ 7 5 9 4 7 , 2 4 \" 5 3 8 1 1 . 6 ~ 1 . 1 5 3 5 0 7 4 0 9 1 7 3 . 0 8 5 6 2 8 . 4 4 3 0 9 1 2 . 0 2 6 7 2 . 0 2 8 3 . 9 8 7 6 2 2 . 6 4 5 3 3 1 1 . 0 1 . 1 5 4 1 4 7 4 0 8 1 7 3 . 0 8 5 6 2 2 . 0 4 5 0 8 8 ) . 5 2 6 5 1 . 8 9 8 5 . 9 8 7 7 3 2 . 5 6 5 3 9 6 5 . 1 1 . 1 5 5 9 6 T 4 0 7 1 7 3 7 0 8 5 6 0 9 . 2 3 3 1 1 6 1 . 6 2 6 4 0 . 7 6 8 3 7 9 8 7 6 3 2 . 2 8 5 4 0 2 8 . 1 1 . 1 5 3 5 9 7 4 0 6 1 7 3 . 0 8 5 5 8 3 . 6 2 3 0 9 8 0 . 0 2 5 6 6 . 5 7 7 9 . 7 2 7 7 1 9 . 2 0 5 3 9 0 4 . 1 1 . 1 5 5 1 7 7 4 0 5 1 7 3 . 0 8 5 4 7 0 . 5 3 3 0 9 1 2 . 0 2 5 3 4 . 2 5 7 9 . 7 2 7 7 5 0 . 6 4 5 3 7 4 9 . 0 1 . 1 5 6 3 4 7 4 0 4 1 7 3 . 0 8 - 5 3 3 6 i l 0 \" 3 0 3 8 9 ; 9 \" 2 4 0 1 . 3 5 \" 7 5 i 3 6 7 4 6 1 7 4 7 5 3 4 6 9 . 9 1 . 1 7 6 6 6 ro 7 4 0 3 1 7 3 . 0 8 5 2 9 7 . 6 8 2 9 9 3 6 . 0 2 2 3 7 . 2 2 7 3 . 3 6 7 3 8 6 . 5 1 5 2 5 6 3 . 5 1 - 1 7 6 7 5 W 7 4 0 2 1 7 3 . 0 8 5 2 5 2 . 8 5 2 9 4 3 5 . 7 2 1 9 7 . 8 0 7 3 . 3 6 6 9 0 2 . 9 2 5 1 1 1 2 . 7 1 . 1 6 9 8 1 1 0 7 4 0 1 17 3 7 0 3 5 2 0 8 ; 0 3 2 9 2 0 0 . 8 2TB 1 . 1 4 7 3 . 3 6 5 9 9 2 . 6 3 4 9 0 0 3 . 7 1 . 1 5 3 1 9 7 3 1 2 1 7 3 . 0 8 5 1 6 3 . 2 0 2 9 5 0 0 . 5 2 2 1 1 . 0 4 7 5 . 3 6 5 6 7 8 . 3 6 4 8 2 2 8 . 3 1 . 1 4 1 1 2 7 5 1 1 1 7 3 . 0 8 5 1 2 4 . 7 8 2 9 1 4 1 . 7 2 1 7 2 . 8 2 7 3 . 3 6 5 4 8 2 . 1 2 4 7 6 0 8 . 0 1 . 1 3 7 9 5 7 3 1 0 1 7 3 - 0 8 4 8 6 4 . 6 6 \" 2 8 7 5 5 . 8 2 1 2 7 . 6 4 7 3 . 3 6 5 5 6 0 7 6 0 4 7 2 6 6 . 9 1.14589 7 5 0 9 1 7 3 . 0 8 4 8 2 6 . 2 3 2 8 6 4 2 . 4 2 1 1 6 . 9 8 7 5 . 3 6 4 4 6 2 . 2 8 4 4 7 5 4 . 6 1 . 1 1 9 9 9 7 5 0 8 1 7 3 . 0 3 4 7 8 7 . 8 1 2 8 3 7 0 . 0 2 0 3 9 . 7 0 7 3 . 5 6 4 3 5 9 - 6 5 4 4 1 6 5 . 4 1 . 1 1 8 5 8 7 3 0 7 1 7 3 7 0 3 4 7 4 T 7 9 8 2 8 0 9 7 . 6 1 9 7 3 . 5 0 7571? 4 3 9 7 . 0 0 4 3 B 5 5 7 2 1. 1 2 0 2 5 7 5 0 6 1 7 3 . 0 8 4 6 9 8 . 1 6 2 8 0 0 5 . 9 1 9 4 6 . 7 1 5 9 . 2 9 3 8 2 2 . 6 6 4 2 5 5 2 . 6 1 . 1 0 8 0 3 7 3 0 5 1 7 3 . 0 3 4 6 4 0 . 5 2 2 7 3 4 8 . 0 1 8 7 4 . 6 1 5 9 . 2 9 3 4 0 0 . 4 1 4 1 4 5 6 . 0 1 . 0 9 8 9 1 7 5 0 4 1 7 3 . 0 8 4 5 8 2 . 8 9 2 7 5 7 5 . 6 1 8 1 3 7 9 0 5 9 . 2 9 5220.64 4 0 6 9 1 7 7 1 7 0 9 5 4 1 7 3 0 3 1 7 3 . 0 3 4 5 3 1 . 6 6 2 7 1 8 9 . 8 1 7 5 5 . 8 8 5 9 . 2 9 2 1 9 1 . 3 1 3 8 1 7 9 . 5 1 . 0 7 1 4 0 7 3 0 2 1 7 3 - 0 8 4 4 8 0 . 4 3 2 6 7 5 8 . 6 1 7 2 5 . 0 2 5 9 . 2 9 2 4 5 3 . 1 0 3 8 1 7 9 . 5 1 . 0 7 8 8 6 7 3 0 1 1 7 3 . 0 8 4 T 7 2 7 T 9 26577715 1716 . 3 3 5 9 7 7 9 2 1 9 9 . 9 0 5 7 4 5 5 . 1 1 . 0 7 5 0 5 7 2 1 2 1 7 3 . 0 8 4 3 7 1 . 5 6 2 6 5 0 4 . 7 1 7 1 3 . 0 7 5 9 . 2 9 2 2 5 0 . 5 8 3 7 4 3 5 . 1 1 . 0 8 0 7 0 7 2 1 1 1 7 3 - 0 8 4 3 2 0 . 5 5 2 6 1 4 5 . 8 1 7 0 ^ . 9 4 5 9 . 2 9 2 5 5 4 . 9 7 3 7 4 3 5 . 1 1 . 0 8 4 2 3 7 2 1 0 1 7 3 . 0 8 4 2 6 9 . 1 0 2 5 73 7 . 3 1 6 8 9 . 7 7 5 9 . 2 9 2 5 8 6 . 7 6 3 7 4 3 5 . i 1 . 0 9 1 9 7 7 2 0 9 1 7 3 . 0 8 4 2 1 7 . 8 7 2 5 6 0 1 . 1 1 6 8 1 . 5 6 5 9 . 2 9 2 1 4 0 . 1 2 3 6 3 1 8 . 6 1 . 0 7 9 6 5 ' 2 0 8 I 7 3 . 0 3 4 1 7 3 . 0 4 2 5 3 9 5 . 8 1 6 6 8 . 16 5 9 . 2 9 1 8 6 1 . 2 8 3 5 4 8 1 . 2 1 . 0 7 2 0 4  7 2 0 7 1 73715* 4 T 2 1 . 8 1 2 5 1 9 2 . 6 1 6 5 2 . 1 9 5 9 . 2 9 1 7 2 2 . 1 8 3 4 9 2 2 . 9 1 . 0 6 8 4 3 7 2 0 6 1 7 3 . 0 8 4 0 8 9 . 7 9 2 4 8 9 7 . 5 1 6 3 1 . 5 9 5 2 . 8 8 1 8 9 3 . 9 1 3 4 9 2 2 . 9 1 . 0 7 4 3 1 7 2 0 5 1 7 3 . 0 8 4 0 7 6 . 9 8 2 4 7 3 8 . 6 1 6 0 6 . 5 3 5 2 . 8 8 1 4 6 2 . 8 4 3 3 3 3 7 . 4 1 . 0 6 1 1 2 7 2 0 4 1 7 3 . 0 8 4 0 5 7 . 7 7 ~\" 2 4 3 0 7 . 4 1 5 7 3 7 4 6 ~ \" 5 2 7 8 8 1 3 5 1 . 5 7 3 5 1 2 4 . 6 \" \" ' \" K 05 8 2 5 7 2 0 5 1 7 3 . 0 8 4 0 4 4 . 9 7 2 4 1 4 3 . 5 1 5 5 9 . 3 9 5 2 . 8 8 1 4 4 1 . 4 6 3 3 1 2 4 . 0 1 . 0 6 1 3 4 ' 2 0 2 1 7 3 . 0 8 4 0 2 5 . 7 5 2 4 0 5 7 . 8 1 5 4 9 . 9 5 5 2 . 8 8 1 4 9 9 . 3 9 3 3 1 2 4 . 0 1 . Q 6 3 2 8  ' 2 0 1 I737TT9 4 ( 5 1 2 . 9 5 2 3 3 5 3 . 5 1 5 4 6 . 76 5 2 7 8 8 1 2 6 0 . 2 4 3 2 4 1 0 . 7 1 . 0 5 5 9 9 7 1 1 2 1 7 3 . 0 8 4 0 0 0 . 1 4 2 3 5 1 3 . 1 1 5 3 8 . 1 1 5 2 . 8 8 9 7 3 . S 3 1 4 4 9 . 2 1 . 0 4 5 9 4 7 1 1 1 1 7 3 . 0 8 3 9 8 0 . 9 3 2 3 4 4 5 . 0 1 5 4 1 . 5 2 5 2 . 8 8 1 0 1 4 . 5 1 3 1 4 4 9 . 2 1 . 0 4 7 5 5 7 1 1 0 1 7 3 . 0 8 3 9 6 8 . 1 2 \" 2 3 1 2 7 . 2 ' . 1 5 5 4 . 9 0 \" 5 2 . 8 8 \" 1 1 6 9 . 0 1 3 1 4 4 9 . 2 1 . 0 5 3 4 4 7 1 0 9 1 7 3 . 0 8 3 9 4 8 . 9 1 2 3 1 0 4 . 5 1 5 6 5 . 0 9 5 2 . 8 8 1 1 8 4 . 4 6 3 1 4 4 9 . 2 1 . 0 5 4 1 7 2 3 3 \"1 , LA rf \u00a9j CM O i LA LA LAl : O O O rf IVJ o : IA cvi ON N. CM rf to ro o co: eo CM rf IA LA mm \u00a9in o \u00a9 \u00a9 : \u00a9 \u00a9 Oi LA vC LA o k-CO CO K l OX \u00a9 rf rf OX \u00a9 k- ON O LA LA \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 KB o o o, O o o IA \u2014 K , \u00a9 Kl CJ o vO IA vO K. eq \u2014 ON rf O ON W4 rv. K, K. CD K. cd O O O O O Q CM \u2014 rf. in \u00a9 vO, ON N-) O ON k. On \u00a9 \u00a9 CM \u2014 CM ro! rf ON rf: in r - \u2014I rf \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9X IM \u00a9x ON 1*0 O. \u2014 0> CNJ! t T f5N ON OK CD N- \u00bbv\u00ab \u00a9 \u00ab k. ool o o o o o o j o o o , o o o w w r , in k tc co ON in O \u00a9 \u2014 k. O\" LA CO CO CO' K . vC k . o o o o o o \u00a9 \u00a9 rf CM \u00ab-t O m o CM k. rf c CM O ON H m k CD CO CD CO k k \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 o \u00a9 o O ON flOJfcr k rf ^ W M! M W Ml Kl Ml \u00a9 \u00a9 ON OJ 00 CO ON? ON ON \\j> LA K ) Kli fNJ O ON CD ON CO, \u00a9 m rf \u00a9 \u00a9 in CM \u00a9 CN . \u2014 \u2014 \u00a9| i K l K l K l l eo \u00a9 \u00a9 rf KI mi \u2022 K l vO 101 : \u2014 O (\\J \u00a9 rf \u00a9 : \u00a9 \u00bbjr CM \u00a9 o ec<tn ON \u2014 k . k. u V r f KI k . O O \u00a9: O O ON K l K l K l '\u2022 K l K l CM INJ tuOivO eo a-) ' in \u00a9;in -\u00ab> \u00a9 v-4 ^0 \u00a9 ; 10 \u00a9 \u00a9 CC CM CM; CM IM CM vo m LA: in in m| ON ON ON ON ON ON CM CM IM CM IM Ail co o \u00a9in K l w*\\ k r 4 i \\ j ; o s CO rf rf k\u00bb; k. O w4 v0 KI Kl in ed \u00ab* rf ON ON k\u00bb kJ, ON ON CO CO co eo IM CM CM CM CM INJ \u2014 CM' KI OX co ox in ' eo ON rf] vO K l ON ON W CM K l \u2022-) \u2014 CD vD m k l k K_ CC CO COiCC CO 00 CM IM CM; CM CM CM O K l rfi\u00a9 CO K ON \u2014 rfjOX ON -T;, \u2014 \u00bbB> rf:0 ON ox m mi CM k. K. k. k. k^ik. ND \u00a9 IM CM tVI'M IM CM rf rf CO' ON CM CO \u2014 CM Klfox rf rf \u00a9 rf CM \u2014 K l *H) CO K l U3HM k. \u2014j \u2022 \u00bb k M i O k k NO \u00a9 \u00a9 vD m m CM IM CMllM CM IM| \u2014 Wf ' K l k\u00bb rfi k . m ON \u2022 ON CO \u00a9I \u2014 KI KI ib. KI in M \u00ab k l k rf CM O O w CM eo .ft \u00a9 \u00a9 in in rf rf fM CM CM CM IM fM Kl rf ON' O \u00a9 \u00a9| in O N0i rw \u00a9 \u2014m \u00a9=IM rf CC vO O i O N ** CM m in i r f vo K I \u00a9 \u00a9 \u2014 CO CO \u2014 \u00a9 CM Ojm \u2014 oj CM 10 \u00a9 ! \u00a9 \u00a9 eo K l , * \u00a9 j k . k. k. CM ON K l ! \u00a9 LA KV ON rf \\0. rf ox rf K. o co; o ox O I wmt \u00ab-4 \u00abri t~t V0 i \u2014 \u2014 IN \u2014 N0 \\0 v0 \\0 \u00a9 10 v0j V0 \u00a9 \u00a9 : \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9j \u2014 m \u00a9 i \u00a9 m K CD \u2014 KliKl \u00a9 rH \u2014 IM K)j##> K l O CM IM CM CM CM f>|| V0 N0 \u00a9 ' \u00a9 \\0 IA \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 ; \u00a9 N\u00a3> KI k. Kl rf;*^ Kl \u2014 KI KI IM;%0 m \\0 ON eO Ov - ffs eo ox in in in in m m Kl Kl K l ' Kl Kl Kl O \\Q i 0 ; ON LA CO %0 Oiv0 O CO CO O OMk eo N0 \u2014 IM \u2014 : \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 in in in in m rf Kl Kl Kl jKl Kl Kl IA CM CM; Kl k. Kl CD V0 rf[ \u2014 IM Kl eO O Oj CO i0 uO \u2014 CM CM; \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 rf rf rf rf rf rf Kl Kl K11K1 K l Kl CM CM m m CM K l ON O \u00ab \u2022 'V0 CO rf \u2022ko in K l in in in co co co eo oo co rf rf rf rf rf rf CO ON O i k Kl \u00ab rf \u2014 CO;in rf IT. * \u2022 \u2022 : \u00ab t t * 0 H ; 0 i n k o eo eo CM \u2014 K) m rf rf m m m ) co co ec cc rf \u2022 rf rfirf rf rf NO \u00ab-\u00bb \u00abJVCO IM rf CO O rf' vC \\0 \u2014 O O CO CO CO OX Ik. \\D K l \u00bb \u2014 K l \\\u00a3> *0 rf CM<rf \u2014 rf CM *.Mi\u00a9N \u2014 k. rf k - rf K l \u00a9X _ , r f rf tM^\u2014 \u2014 KI|K1 \u00a9 ON ;k. i0 N0 in m iniin in mm m rf.rf rf rf CD CO CD rf O CO \u2022 \u2022' t t t O rf LAiCO Kl CD Kl \u2014 OJON OX in rf rf rf;Kl Kl Kl \u2014 coiKi m k. KI o rf ;o CM k-t \u2022 t \u00bb f * ec K. in ON CM k-llM \u2014 O jUD m \u2014 K l K l K l (CM CM CM rf rf rfrf rf v0|s0 h0 U3jt0 v0 \\0 \u2014 m m k . m ON O rf ( 0 : \u2014 \u2014 \u00ab-4 t \u2022 \u2022 ' t t t o ox v 0 - \u2014 ox in \u2014 \u00a9N ON O ON O CM \u2014 \u2014 ;IM \u2014 CM OX rf in: CD \u00a9 K l CO ON rfrf CO \u2022 t \u2022 \u2022 \u2022 K l CO K l ; \u2014 OX %0 o K. m rf \u2014 co CM \u2014 \u2014 ; \u2014 \u2014 \u00a9 ON rf CO k 0 i n m O K . o o c M CO;KI \u2014 m N0 rf K 1 I I M K l rf rf o ON on \u2014 in vo ON eo rf \u2014 ON CO CM'U5 rf \u2014 ON O eO'LA ON O CN IA IO rf K l CO \u2014 O k . K l K l IM 'CM CM IM O ON CO \u2014 CM O K 1 O \u00a9 k . rf .* ICM \u00a9 \u00a9 rf k. K l irf O \u00a9 ON \u00a9 IA CM IM CM \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 CM tM CM AJ CM CM \u00a9 m M CM CM o C* M n Ki in M fy\\ \u2014 ox.to O \u00a9 O rf O rf \u00a9 i n N to k k \u2014 \u2014 O O O O fM CM IM'CM IM CM ON CM \u2014 O ON k. O rf I M \u00a9 k. m o en IA s. M tfi \u00a9 in m ik> \u2014 \u00a9j \u00a9 IM \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 k. o o \u00a9 O N OX \u00a9\\j CM IM CM-\u2014 \u2014 \u2014 K . k . \u00a9 m w rf CM C M \u00a9 O ON rf K l K l K l rf K l 0> Ox O* C^> ON ON \u00a9 k o rf in o \u00a9 CM O rf \u2014 \u2014 rf Kl IM ON K- in 0\\ CK OX CC \u00a9 CO k K l I f t i H fK K l rf \u00a9 rf CO CM ON rf K l K> IM CM \u2014 co CD eo ' \u00a9 co co O K l K l k \u00a9 \u00a9 rf CM ON m \u2014 CJ \u2014 ON \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 rf eo k . k PW K . k\u00bb m rf O \u00a9 \u00a9 rf Im m m rf rf rf K\u00bb \u2014 ox K. \u00a9 \u00ab rf \u00ab k\u00bb K. \u2014 \u00ab IM \u00a9 CD k\u00bb CM \u00a9 l \u2014 m rf \u00a9 ON Kl OX K> m ;rf CM o \u00a9 O O rf \u00a9 Cvl ox \u00a9 tw m rf CM ON K l \u2014iO\u00ab K l k. \u00a9 K l rf K l CNJ O ON OX ON k. \u00a9 ex o K> \u00a9 in KI \u2014 o \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 k. w Kl Kl Kl Kl Kl Kl 'CO CO o o *4 w4 eo K. \\C O O O c0 co eo co co O O O O \u00a9 \u00a9 Kt Kl Kl Kl K\u00bb m rf Kl CM \u2014 CM \u00a9 o \u00a9 o o \u2014 ^ ^ ^  w \u00a9 k. k. N. k. k. k* ON O \u2014 CM CM Kl rf \u2014 ox k. m KI k- \u00a9 m in ir. in Kl Kl Kl Kl Kl Kl CD CD \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 o o o o o i \u2014 O ON \u00a9 K \u00a9 \u2014 \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 o o \u00a9 o o o o o jk, k\u00bb b\u00bb N. r*- K. \u2014 ON \u00a9 rf CM \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 O k* rf ^ m rf rf KI KI K\u00bb K) K l K l K l K l K l co ec eo co \u00a9 eo IO O o O O o \u2022 t t \u2022 t K l K l K l K l K l r * K ' K k K m rf K; IM IM o o o \u00a9 o \u2014 O O O O O ON k. k. k. k~ k\u00bb \u00a9 \u00a9 CXJ \u00a9 \u00a9 Kl \u00ab K. in CM \u00a9 \u00a9 ' CM CM CNJ \u2014 *m , cc cc \u00a9 eo eo \u00a9 O O O O o o K l K l >0 K l K l K l N> k\u00bb (V k> k-ox KI \u2014 m \u00a9 Kl ON K. rf \u00ab-4 \u00a9 rf \u00a9 O O O ON ON r*> K) K l K l CM IM I\u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 ( O O \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 K k. N. N k. N. k- IM \u00a9 rf \u00a9 K l \u2014 OX \u00a9 K l O CO OX CO \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 k. CM IM CM IM CM CM |\u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 iO O O O O O CD ON ON rf CD \u00a9 K l \u2014 ON k . rf k . k - K . \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 CM CM tM CM lM CM \u00a9 \u00a9 CO \u2022\u00a9 \u00a9 00 O O O O O O |K) K l K l K l K l K l \u2014 O ON \u00ab k- \u00a9 in rf K l fM \u2014 IM \u2014 \u2014 o o o o j o o o o o \u2014 OX ON ON ON ON OX |ON ON ON O1 ON CD \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 !\u2014 O e> \u00a9 K. \u00a9 I\u2014 \u2014 O \u00a9 O O j\u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 i\u00a9 \u00a9 10 %0 V0 10 in rf K l CM \u2014 CM o o o o o \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 fw \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 V. 234 TABLE A-13 SINGLE-DETACHED AND ROW HOUSING COSTS DURING DEVELOPMENT P e r S i n g l e - P e t a c h e d H o u s i n g U n i t DATE = Y e a r and Month o f E n t r y BLAND = Repayment o f M o r t g a g e P r i n c i p a l on La n d (See TABLE A-12) SUB = T o t a l S u b d i v i s i o n C o s t s (See TABLE A-12) BLDG = T o t a l B u i l d i n g and L o t Improvement C o s t s (See TABLE A-12) FINC = T o t a l F i n a n c i n g C o s t s ( I n t e r e s t Payments and F l o t a t i o n C o s t s ) See TABLE A-12 SPTX = I n c r e a s e i n La n d H o l d i n g C o s t s AC = P r e - T a x C o s t s D u r i n g D e v e l o p m e n t and M a r k e t i n g P e r Row H o u s i n g U n i t DATE = Y e a r and Month o f E n t r y RSUB = T o t a l S e r v i c i n g ( S u b d i v i s i o n ) \" C o s t s RBLDG = T o t a l B u i l d i n g and L o t Improvement C o s t s RFINC = T o t a l F i n a n c i n g C o s t s ( I n t e r e s t Payments and F l o t a t i o n C o s t s ) RPTX = I n c r e a s e i n L a n d H o l d i n g C o s t s o o o e * iff * t \u2022 \u2022 t N W N W J -ff ^  J |o o w L H in m * j w o o o o Lt \u2022* \u2022\u00bb ! * * \u2022\u00bb KO O -0> O I\u00bb. K. CJ in Uf O k Oi k 09 m m in im in in l O O O i O c o u< CM *e in ~< U i t v IM I O o* o m i*> \u00ab*r 2 3 5 in in o \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9j WT US- UD US O \u00a9 cc 1 ec eo wr K)i PO PO roj \u00a9 \u00a9 o i o o \u00a9I sO UD US \u2022 UD UD UD! \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 1 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 c r \u00a9 \u2014IO N IVJ \u2014I K l ON cv 0 k m ON CM ON : CO \u00a9 \u2014 in in US \u2022 CJ K l PO O O ON ON ON ON UD UD 00 ' CO CO CO \u00a9 \u00a9 UD i UD UD UD Ov ON O N ' ON ON ON \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 : \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 UD UD UD IUD UD UD wr co in :in \u00ab wr in \u00a9 CM CM wr in ON ON CO CO CO CQJ CO \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 O 4 - k \u00ab H IT tO| wr UD wr: \u00a9N CM wr \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 ' \u00a9 CO CC \u00a9 PO m r o - r o wr \u00a9 ON i n o ON i \u00a9 Pw K . \u2014 wr KM K. rw \u2014 o wr k j K l w. UD \u00ab-l \u00a9 !\u00a9 ON \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 IM CM t M CM CM [us ON UD 1\u2014 i n \u00a9 ON N* I M o eo CO !k k k K ir. \u00abr llM CM i M CM CM CM Pw US PO U S wr ON us in I M k in CM ON i n O N o in \u00a9 in tw k ! ON WT C J . I M o fO K> PO.PO IO IVl CM IM CM: IV fM IV| j CM ON \u00a9 : \u00a9 ON k ; \u2014 wr UD { CM r o wr o N\u00bb in in in or CM w-4 \u2014 \\*4 \u2014 \u2014 CM CM CM CM IM CM i ! \u00a9 UD k . ;ON k k ON \u00a9 \u2014 i n ON UD k- k i n r o ec \u00ab r o CM \u00a9 1 o wr r o j c v \u00a9 \u2014 UD UD rw W*  O ; \u2014 \u00a9 O tM CM CMilM CM IM IM CM \u2014 ' ON i n wr \u00a9 \u00a9 \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 CM IM CM 'CM CV CV ON \u2014 O i O \u00a9 UD ON wr wr. O r o UD UD UDjUD \u2014 \u2014 \u00a9I IM CM CM: CM CM CM I\u00a9 eo ON J in \u2014 \u2014 wr K. UD o ro I M r u \u2022** \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 CM W CM \u2022 I M ON \u2014 \u00a9 t n \u2014 wr \u00a9 i n > WT wr k t n \u00a9 wr r o rw or S\\ ON r o ON r o Kt CM r o O tM W t n 10 CM i n r o \u00a9 K l \u00a9 ro ON r o ON r o JO \u2022o \u00a9 ro ON r o CO r o k r o k ro \u00a9 w r r w k r - t t n or k \u00a9 P O i k r* K i p t f N i f f k O (Tw rw K . O N i n or rw \u2014 wr i n \u2014 wr ON k O ; \u2014 WT O ko UD UD U D tn in r o r o r o r o r o ro ko ON I M i n CM m | \u2014 ro us \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 in o r \u00a9 i n us us \u00a9 \u00a9 ( u s \u00a9 r o in \u2014 0 U S r o | wr or f ro m r o iro r o r o i r o r o r o I\u00a9 ON \u00a9 US \u2014 \u00a9 CV \u2014 Pw \u00a9 \u00a9 CV CM \u2014 tM U S tM ON ON \u00a9 tM 1US tM PJ \u00a9 k or }PO wr ro K ) CM IM !CM IM CM r o r o K I iK) r o P O CO CM ON : \u00a9 ON US \u2014 \u00a9 rw iwr or tM I M ON us im rw in l\\J \u2022< ! H O O ro ro iro ro ro ! us \u00a9 k r o wr CM IT C> H ; H ON CM lrw tn us r~ \u00a9 iw ON \u00ab\u00a9 pw r o WT O ON UD ON P J ** in CM P O \u00a9 in or P O CM \u2014 us us \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 : \u00a9 ON ON r o P O r o P O l \\ l CM \u00a9 in m us in us CM CM \u00a9 Pw PO P J ipo \u00a9 pw jpo or \u00ab-*| 1-4 \u00a9 \u00a9 i \u2014 \u2014 IM I or CM \u2014 1 \u2014 PO tM ON ON O I ON CO CO 1 IM CM CM CM CM IM i \u00a9 I M m \u00a9 UD \u2014 pw rw ON ro rw in pw rw pw k CM IM CM tM in in \u00a9 \u2014 in \u00a9 \u00a9 wr us ON wr UD ro us ON wr \u00a9 I M wr \u00a9 U S \u00a9 CO Pw i n i n wr PO CJ IM CJ tM I M us *o or m us PO CM \u2014 ON Pw i n Kj c j CJ \u2014 \u2014 j\u00a9 ON \u00a9 W* PO \u2014\u00bb O \u00a9 CJ \u00a9 \u2014 \u2014 _\u00a9 o \u00a9 \u00a9 wr or us i n I co UD t n twr P O CJ ON ON ON i Ov 0\\ ON WT ON ON \u2014 WT OT \u2014 us i n - in PO C M ON \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 us in CJ ius 0 Pw \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 i \u00ab pw in \u00a9 \u00a9 in iwr or wr \u2014 Pw *H \u00a9 CJ Jor \u00a9 us m P O CM Iwr P O PO P O P O co in pw k. us pw \u00a9 ON us i i n PO \u2014 PO CM CJ =CJ CM I M \u2014 IM \u2014 CV \u2014 ON Pw i n \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 -\u2022 IM \u00ab# \u2022\u00bb fn e IM in ae .# 0 O in in it> P \u00a9 Pw \u2014 PO US po in co P O CM \u2014 ION PO U S ' O C V U S PO t n \u2014 \u00a9 Pw co Pw wr o ION \u00a9 1 I O U S CM C V UD CO \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 CO PJ tV . ON m \u00a9 r v pw wr or \u2014 ON CM \u00a9 Pw PO PO tn CJ Pw UD UD PO ON ON CO CO Pw Pw i n i n i n i n i n m wr O o C V CO kn wr i n m wr co Lo us i n i n or r o in m m i n m tn \u2014 us i n r v UD \u00a9 ro ro i n \u2014 co or \u2014 Pw t v cv tv \u2014 \u2014 kn m m m m i n wr \u00a9 \u00a9 us i n P O po UD Pw en PO co CO CV \u00a9 Pw \u00a9 us O \u00a9 ON O N ON ON t n m wr o r wr or i \u2014 us \u00a9 \u00abpo U S wr (CM \u00a9N PO Pw CO U S Im \u00a9 m t o c j ON ON O' CO 'CC Pw us (PW Pw PO i n iw t n pw. \u00a9 i n us r*. co iw i n or co \u00a9 (us us us us i n i n (UD ON ro \u2022 \u2014 wr r o en co CM \u2022 \u00a9 n* \u2014 wr cv \u2014 0 \u00a9 PW i in i n m or ro r o ON W ON \u00a9 \u2022w wr or PO \u2014 ON eo i n PO t v CM CM m i n i n m m m r o p o p o p o \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 M \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 0 \u00a9 p \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 o \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 CM tM CJ CM C V C M l V C V l V C j r v C V P w I w P w P w iw, i n i n i n i n k k k k k k k k i n i T M n i n i n m i n i n I t n i n i n i r . o o o o o \u00a9 i n i n m i n \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 0 0 \u00a9 \u00a9 tn i n i n i n t n i n p o \u00a9 o \u00a9 \u00a9 In in \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 i o o o o o o 0 0 0 0 o o o o m m i n m O O O \u00a9 O O O O O N ON ON ON i n i n m i n i n i n i n m o o \u00a9 o |ON ON ON ON ON ON JON ON ON ON ON ON O O O \u00a9 ION ON ON ON C M \u2014 ' \u00a9 O N C O P w u D i n o r p o \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 O O O \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON ON I M \u2014 CM ^ \u00a9 O N B O k u s i n o r p o 0 \u00a9 \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 \u00a9 i o o o o o o O N \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 k Pw Pw k Pw \u2022 L 1 j i v \u2014 i v \u2014 o c t o k t c i r - * \u00bb o r j w w p * o c (o o \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 \u00a9 o o \u00a9 o o \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 o CO cc k k k k N k K k K S K N \u00ab C t < 9 < 0 v D to k us i n wr P O 0 0 0 0 0 0 UD UD UP UD UD UD CV \u2014 CV \u2014 O O \u2014 \u2014 [us us in in 7 5 1 0 7 5 0 9 7 5 0 8 7 5 0 7 ~750~S\"\" 7 5 0 5 7 5 0 * 7 5 0 3 7 5 0 2 7 5 0 1 - 7 T T 2 -7*11 7 * 1 0 7 * 0 9 7 * 0 8 7 * 0 7 - 7 W 7 4 0 5 7 * 0 * 7 * 0 3 7 * 0 2 7 * 0 1 \" T T I T -7 3 1 1 7 3 1 0 7 3 0 9 7 3 0 8 7 307 ~ 7 S 0 * ~ 7 3 0 5 7 3 0 * 7 3 0 3 7 3 0 Z 7 3 0 1 7212~ 7 2 1 1 7 2 1 0 7 2 0 9 7 2 0 8 7 2 0 7 \" 7 ? 0 6 \" 7 2 0 5 7 2 0 * 7 2 0 3 7 2 0 2 7 2 0 1 \" 7 1 1 2 -7 1 1 1 7 1 1 0 7 1 0 9 \"SEE\" 9 0 . 5 5 9 0 . 5 5 9 0 . 5 5 9 0 . 5 5 * 2 0 7 3 . I 4 1 8 7 1 . 0 4 1 7 1 9 . 2 4 1 2 6 7 . 7 ~7*~~76~7~ 7 * . 67 7 * . 6 7 7 * . 6 7 7 * . 6 7 7 * . 6 7 RSUB 3 0 3 3 . 27 3 0 1 7 . 1 8 2 9 9 8 . * 1 2 9 7 9 . 6 * 2 7 2 3 5 . 8 2 7 0 8 7 . 1 2 7 1 2 4 . 3 2 6 8 2 6 . 8 7 4 . 6 7 7 * . 6 7 7 * . 6 7 7 * . 6 7 7 * . 6 f 7 * . 6 7 7 3 . 3 6 7 3 . 3 6 7 3 . 3 6 7 3 . 3 6 7 3 . 36 7 3 . 3 6 7 3 . 3 6 7 3 . 3 6 7 3 . 3 6 7 3 . 3 6 7 3 . 3 6 5 9 . 2 9 5 9 . 2 9 5 9 . 2 9 5 9 . 2 9 5 9 . 2 9 5 9 . 2 9 ~ 5 9 T 2 9 \" 5 9 . 2 9 5 9 . 2 9 5 9 . 2 9 5 9 . 2 9 5 9 . 2 9 4 0 3 1 6 . 7 3 9 8 7 2 . 2 3 9 1 1 5 . 5 3 8 8 7 4 . 5 3 8 7 7 2 . 8 3 8 7 5 6 . 1 3 9 7 9 6 . 0 3 9 5 0 6 . 6 3 9 4 5 0 . 2 3 9 4 1 0 . 9 3 9 6 5 9 . 3 \"TEtffiT 2 0 1 0 . 9 6 198 7 . 2 2 1 9 1 3 . 1 4 1 8 8 0 . 7 2 2 9 6 8 . 9 1 2 9 5 3 . 5 5 2 9 6 0 . 8 7 \" 2 9 5 5 . 5 1 2 9 5 2 . 8 2 2 9 5 0 . 1 4 -RPJX\" 3 4 . 88 3 4 . 8 8 3 4 . 88 3 4 . 88 2 6 1 3 8 . 9 2 5 8 2 2 - 9 2 5 2 6 5 . 2 2 5 0 9 7 . 8 \" 2 * 9 8 6 . 3 2 * 8 5 6 . 2 \"2^4 4 . 78 2 9 4 2 . 1 0 2 9 3 6 . 7 3 2 9 1 4 7 0 5 2 9 3 1 . 3 7 2 9 2 6 . 0 1 2 4 8 3 7 . 5 2 5 5 9 9 . 8 2 5 3 5 8 . 1 2 5 J 2 0 . 9 2 5 3 0 2 . 4 2 5 5 2 5 . 4 1 8 2 6 . 1 1 1 7 9 0 . 7 9 1 7 3 6 . 7 0 1 7 1 8 . 4 4 1 7 4 8 . 1 5 1 8 5 7 . 2 5 \" T 9 T 7 B T 7 -3 9 1 5 3 . 2 3 8 3 7 3 . 8 3 7 7 1 7 . 4 3 7 1 3 3 . 8 3 6 8 4 5 . 4 ~T6\"92TTZ~ 3 6 6 8 5 . 7 3 5 9 9 4 . 6 3 5 8 3 2 . 0 3 5 4 4 4 . 0 3 5 0 5 0 . 6 ZVli.HO 2 7 1 8 . 4 9 2 6 1 1 . 8 * 2 5 9 5 . 7 5 2 5 7 6 . 9 8 2 5 5 8 . 2 1 1 9 2 4 . 7 1 1 9 7 6 . 2 7 1 9 8 8 . 8 7 1 9 9 2 . 8 5 1 9 7 8 . 0 8 1 9 7 1 . 7 1 2 8 . 7 6 2 8 . 7 6 2 8 . 76 \" 2 8 . 7 6 2 8 . 7 6 2 8 . 7 6 2 5 3 2 0 . 9 2 * 8 9 3 . 3 2 * 5 2 1 . 5 2 * 1 1 2 . 5 2 3 9 2 6 . 6 2 8 . 7 6 2 8 . 7 6 2 8 . 7 6 2 8 . 7 6 2 8 . 7 6 2 8 . 7 6 \" 2 \" 5 * 9 . * 4 2 5 2 3 . 35 2 3 7 9 . 7 2 2 36 3 . 6 3 2 3 4 7 . 5 4 2 3 2 8 . 7 7 \" 1 9 1 6 . 81 1 8 7 9 . 9 8 1 7 7 8 . 8 2 1 6 5 7 . 4 4 1 6 2 7 . 5 1 1 6 1 5 . 6 0 2 8 . 2 6 2 8 . 2 6 2 8 . 2 6 2 8 . 2 6 2 8 . 26 2 8 . 2 6 (JO 3 4 8 8 4 . 1 3 4 5 9 5 . 5 3 4 2 0 4 . 8 3 3 7 0 9 . 7 3 3 1 9 6 . 4 3 2 9 4 8 . 5 3 2 4 0 6 . 4 3 1 9 2 8 . 5 3 1 7 3 2 . 9 3 1 4 7 0 * 4 3 1 1 9 8 . 9 2 4 0 0 1 . 0 2 3 8 7 0 . 8 2 3 5 5 4 . 8 2 3 4 6 1 . 8 \" 2 3 2 3 8 . 8 2 3 0 1 5 . 7 2 3 1 0 . 0 0 2 2 8 5 . 8 6 2 2 6 1 . 7 3 2 2 * 0 . 2 8 2 2 1 8 . 8 3 2 1 9 * . 6 9 1 6 * 1 . 1 2 1 6 1 3 . * 9 1 5 8 3 . 1 5 1 5 7 5 . 9 9 1 5 1 9 . 0 2 1 * 7 0 . 3 9 2 2 9 * 1 . 3 2 2 8 1 1 . 2 2 2 5 8 8 . 1 2 2 2 7 2 . 0 \" 2 1 9 1 8 . 8 2 1 7 7 0 . 1 2 8 . 26 2 8 . 2 6 2 8 . 2 6 2 8 . 2 6 2 8 . 2 6 2 8 . 2 6 \" 5 2 T 8 H -5 2 . 88 5 2 . 8 8 5 2 . 8 8 5 2 . 8 8 5 2 . 8 8 \" 2 1 7 3 . 2 * 2 1 5 1 . 7 9 2 1 3 0 . 3 * 2 1 0 8 . 8 9 2 0 9 0 . 1 2 2 0 6 8 . 6 6 3 0 8 4 4 . 8 3 0 6 4 8 . 1 3 0 1 5 4 . 6 2 9 9 7 8 - 9 2 9 3 5 9 . 4 2 9 6 3 9 . 2 2 1 5 * 7 . 0 2 1 4 1 6 . 8 2 1 0 8 2 . 2 2 0 9 7 0 7 5 \" 2 0 8 0 3 . 3 2 0 6 3 6 . 0 1 4 5 1 . 5 9 1 3 9 9 . 4 2 1 3 5 5 . 1 2 1 3 1 2 . t 3 1 2 8 9 . 0 0 1 2 8 3 . 4 2 2 U 5 5 . 2 6 2 0 4 9 . 8 9 2 0 4 1 . 8 5 2 0 3 6 . 4 9 \" 2 0 2 8 . 4 * 2 0 2 3 . 0 8 \" 5 7 T 8 3 \" 5 2 . 8 8 5 2 . 8 8 5 2 . 8 8 \" f 9 T 7 7 T 3 ~ 2 9 1 9 3 - 4 2 8 3 7 6 . 2 2 8 8 4 4 . 5 2 0 1 7 . 7 2 2 0 0 9 . 6 7 2 0 0 4 . 3 1 1 9 9 6 . 2 6 2 0 3 9 4 . 3 2 0 2 6 * . 2 1 9 9 1 1 . 0 1 9 7 8 0 . 8 1 9 7 0 6 . 5 1 9 5 3 9 . 1 1 2 8 2 . 18 1 2 7 9 . 1 5 1 2 6 5 . 4 8 1 2 6 0 ; 2 8 1 2 5 0 . 7 8 1 2 3 9 . 5 8 \" 1 2 2 4 . 62 1 2 0 5 . 1 8 1 1 7 9 . 5 0 116 8 . 8 1 1 1 6 1 . 9 9 1 1 5 9 . 1 6 2 2 . 8 4 2 2 . 8 4 2 2 . 8 4 2 2 . 8 4 2 2 . 84 2 2 . 8 4 2 2 . 8 4 2 2 . 8 4 2 2 . 8 4 2 2 . 84 2 2 . 8 4 2 2 . 8 4 1 9 2 6 0 . 3 1 9 2 0 4 . 5 1 8 9 4 4 . 2 1 8 9 2 5 - 5 1 1 5 2 . 5 1 1 1 5 5 . 2 8 1 1 5 4 . 2 1 i 1 7 2 . 2 0 2 0 . 3 7 2 0 . 3 7 2 0 . 3 7 2 0 . 3 7 2 0 . 37 2 0 . 3 7 2 0 . 37 2 0 . 3 7 2 0 . 37 2 0 . 3 7 DUE 7 108 7107 7 106 7105 r i o * 7103 7102 r i o i 7012 7011 7 010 7009 7008 7007 7006 7005 7 D O * \" 7003 7002 7001 6912 6911 6 910 6 909 6908 6907 6906 6905 6 9 0 * 6903 6902 6901 6812 6811 6810 6809 6808 6807 6806 6805 6 8 0 * 6 803 6802 6801 6712 SPJX RSlffi\"~ 5 2 . 8 8 28378.9 1990. 90 52.88 2*743.7 1985.54 4 8 . n 2 8 4 4 7 . 0 1 9 r r . 4 9 45.11 2 8 0 0 7 . 1 1902.54 4 8.11 27600-6 1894.50 48.11 27583.0 1 6 8 6 . 4 5 48. 11 274,89. 1 1878.41 48.11 27198.8 1873.05 4 3 . 11 27041 . 0 1 865.00 4 8. 11 27024.1 1856.96 4 8 . 11 26615.7 1848.91 4 8.11 26244.7 1840.87 48.11 26159.1 1832.82 4 8 . 11 26054.7 1824.78 4 4 . 6 6 2 6 0 1 ? . 0 1816.74 4 4 . 6 6 25934.5 180 3. 33 4 4 . 6 6 25453. 1 1789.92 4 4 . 6 6 25274.8 1746.04 4 4 . 6 6 24942.9 1732.64 4 4 . 6 6 2 4 8 4 0 .r 1719.21 4 4 . 66 24782.9 1705.82 4 4 . 6 6 24 158.4 1692.41 4 4 . 66 2421 I . 3 1681.69 4 4 . 6 6 24172.3 1668.28 4 4 . 6 6 241T1.4 1654.87 4 4 . 6 6 24179.0 1644. 15 4 4 . 35 24098.9 1630.74 4 4 . 3 5 24113.5 1617.33 44.35 23935.8 1606.61 4 4 . 3 5 23755.2 1593.20 4 4 . 3 5 2 3 4 4 6 . 7 1582.47 4 4 . 35 23153.7 1525.22 4 4 . 35 2 2 8 8 9 . 3 1514.49 4 4 . 3 5 2 2 7 * 2 . 4 1503. 76 4 4 . 35 22692.7 149 3. 04 4 4 . 35 22619.3 1479.63 4 4 . 35 22534.7 1468.90 4 4 . 35 22454.8 1458.18 36. 34 2 2 5 * 0 . 9 1447.45 36.34 22318.2 1439.41 36.34 2 2 0 4 9 . 8 142 8 . 6 8 \" 36. 34 21775.8 1420.64 36.34 21708.3 1412.59 3 6 . 34 2 1 5 ? 2 . 5 1401.87 3 6 . 34 21370.3 1391. 14 RBLDG. 1 8 9 6 2 . 8 1 8 8 6 9 . 9 18665.4 1 8 3 6 7 . 9 t 8 0 7 0 - 5 1 8 0 7 0 . 5 17977.5 17754.4 I 7639.1 1 7 6 1 8 . 7 17 3 9 9 . J 17127.9 1 7 0 7 5 . 8 17012.6 1 8 9 8 1 . 0 1 6 9 4 0 . f i 165 9 4 . 3\" 16510.7 16282.0 16228.1 1 6 2 0 7 . 6 J 5 9 2 5 . 1 1 5 8 3 2 . 1 1 5 8 3 2 . 1 1 5 8 6 J . 7 1 5 8 9 5 . 3 1 5 8 8 4 . 2 J 5947_. 4 1 5 8 3 2 - 1 1 5 7 2 8 . 0 1 5 5 1 7 . 9 1 5 3 3 0 . 1 1 5 1 5 2 . 8 J L 5 L L Q . - J L 1 5 0 5 8.7 1 5 0 2 7 . 1 1 4 9 7 5 . 1 1 * 9 3 2 . 3 1 4 9 0 2 . 5 J 4 8 5 9 . 8 1 4 6 8 1 . 3 1 4 4 9 3 . 5 1 4 4 6 3 . 8 1 4 4 3 2 . 2 1 4 2 7 4 . 2 EEIMT 1174.10 116 7.42 1149.85 I 122. 24 110 3. 33 1105.04 1133.60 1 128.96 1144.74 U 5 0 . 5 8 _ 1156.95 1140.94 1139. 19 1133.47 I 152. 84 _1151.75_ II JO.72 1120.82 1105. 17 I 102.71 1102.98 _!_<>?__._62_ 1053.05 1057.35 1 0 5 3 . 0 0 1 0 4 9 . 9 5 1025.41 1 00_3-_88_ 9 9 5 . 6 5 987.51 9 6 0 . 0 3 9 4 4 . 6 4 919.24 913.94 9 0 6 . 5 5 9 0 5 . 2 3 9 0 9 . U 908.14 913.28; _?1J?.68 89 3.93 8 7 4 . 6 5 8 6 6 . 0 1 8 5 0 . 3 3 8 2 4 . 9 8 RETT 2 0. 37 2 0. 37 8.53 8.53 8.53 8. 53 8.53 8.53 8.53 18.53 8. 53 8. 53 8.53 8. 53 . 20 \u00b12Q_ . 2 0 . 20 - 20 . 2 0 . 2 0 .10. . 2 0 . 2 0 . 20 . 20 . 0 3 ...0.0.. . 08 \u2022 08 \u2022 08 . 0 8 \u2022 08 . 0 8 . . 08 . 0 6 . 08 . 08 tOO . 0 0 ^ . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 . 0 0 K> UJ 238 TABLE A\u201414 INVESTMENT REQUIRED PER UNIT INDEX DATE = Y e a r and Month o f E n t r y SIU = I n v e s t m e n t R e q u i r e d f o r a New S i n g l e - D e t a c h e d House RIU = I n v e s t m e n t R e q u i r e d f o r a New Row House PROW = P r o p o r t i o n o f G r o u n d - O r i e n t e d H o u s i n g U n i t S t a r t s C o n s i s t i n g o f Row H o u s i n g U n i t s A I U = A v e r a g e I n v e s t m e n t R e q u i r e d f o r a New G r o u n d - O r i e n t e d H o u s i n g U n i t IU = I n v e s t m e n t R e q u i r e d P e r U n i t I n d e x rf ro o tO N M t\\)| \u2014 rf \u00a9 \u2014 eo in in oo) > f i , M M KV \u00a9 ON ON ONJ O O O O K l k . K> Ik. k . \u00ab\u00bb CO IB K l J5 -s> in IC in in in in K i K I rf; o\\ \u00a9 \u2014 CD l\\j k - : KN f\\j O 0 0 OX K l ; B O K l k | i n <\\J rf IM rfj LO ON ox:txj in k K l i O * \u00a9 i n \u00a9 k K l I M j k CD rf CO K . i n \u00a9 \u2014 CM ox OX rf!O k rf ON ON ON ON ON ON CD CC COJON CO CD o o l o o \u00a9 c o o ? e o o O J \u00a9 \\jD ON eo K Ox \u00a9 (\\j O ox in o \u00a9 in eo \u2014 \u2022S> f \u00a9 \u00a9 co 00. ec k m CM CM IM O O O O o o o ; 0 \u00a9 o o o* in ON ON o rf i i n ox \u00a9 ' eo ON vO ON O S I D i n \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 rf rf rf rf m i n KI \u2014i (NJ i ox o in ON \u00a9 K l \u00a9 \u00a9 rf Ml Ln K l vO in in in rf rf-rf rfr  rfrf O :*\"4 rf K l '\u00a9 k OX CO \u2014 \u2014 K l Icol <v in K l \u2014 ON ON O O in L A \u00a9 \u00a9 CNJ *-\u00ab O OX \u2022-4 *\u2022! \u00ab H O ON Ox ON ON CO \u2014 \u2014 \u00a9 ON in ;K) us rf \u00a9 i n C O K \u00a9 ; \u00a9 in in in iin i eo \u2014 \u2014 in \u00a9 ON CXJ CNJ in in k in in rf o rf v-4 \u2014 >K1 OX O H \u00bb- o w w o k rfi\u00a9 in eo IA \u2014 ON IA k CM O \u2014 \u2014 K l ON k NO \u2014 CNJ i n [rf ON rf <\u2014 \u2014 \u00a9 rf \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 in frf \u00a9 \u00a9 in rf \u2014 ON co eo K . h -kn m in in m m to K \u00a9 in rf K I |\u00a9 o o o o o \u00a9N OX Ox OX ON ON rf o K . m vo m CO K l \u00a9 'CM \u00a9 K l o o \u00a9 ? \u00a9 K in in in rf i i n rf O K H l W K O \u00a9 CM in M I \u00a9 \u00a9 O K \u00a9!K1 \u2014 K l \u00a9 CM CO ;K1 o ox in k ON \u2022\u2014 rf CD rf rf \u00a9 irf in \u00a9 O O O ' O o o IM CO K l \u00a9 \u2014 LA ixj \u00a9 in cv rf k LA in \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 o \u00a9 ON ox \u00a9 in K l K l IM I C M W \u2014 tM rf K CM CM \u00a9 \u2014 \u00a9 in o o o k \u00a9 in \u2022\u2014 k K l \u00a9 CM K l rf CM \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 in in rf K I Iin in in in in m IM \u2014 IV \u2014 \u00a9 O O \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 ' ON OX \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 2 3 9 INJ CO LA O LA] ON \u00a9 \u00a9 KM O k \u00a9 O \u00a9 k \u00ab k \u00a9. \u00a9 in OX O OX \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 O O O O ' O O O eo IA W; H ft W M M k i l n \u00bb IU in eo K I ' co o iw[ ^ CS) ft-*. CO k\u00bb k. k. vc;>c ft ft in -* >KI ~* * ft ftlin co ^ eo ~*:t\\i K I O k W \u00bb M * in in in : ON in eo io o o.o o o in ON k- ift ft K l K l CO o IK\u00bb eo in CO LA vO \u00ab* eo mi\\j ft m O \u00a9 I O ft ft \u00abr \u00abff.*r K I K I ift ivi in ft in CO eo K l 'w* ft K l K l O < k 4 !>\u2022 iM ft in o IVI f \\ l \u00bb< \u2022 \u00ab kn in in m in in p k io in * w o o o o o o co co eo co oo K l O KI o i n k i n o ON \u00a9 o k k O O \u00a9 \u2014 CM ox o CM rf in in \u00a9 O rf rf \u00a9 ON \u00a9 o \u00a9, ON \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00ab \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 ' \u00a9 o * W \u00ab IA CM: K l \u00a9 \u00a9 CM LA \u00a9 k \u00a9 ml \u00a9 ON in \u00a9 IA CMl O O \u00a9 : \u00bb ON K>| rf O \u2014 i \u00a9 K l rf rf L A rfi rf rf wf in; o ox ON W.;K \u00a9 CMI \u00a9 .\u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9I ON in co rf ON rf O \u00a9 \u00a9 CM in rf o o \u00a9 \u00a9 o ol in o k ; k O \u2014 \u00a9 in \u00a9 O N O k rf \u00a9 k ^ O in K l CM K rf rf rf K l ox \u00a9 coi&i \u00a9 cD K\", K l r K l K l K l CM i n \u00a9 O N \u00a9 K . mm i n in^CM IM O \u00a9 O N O \u00a9 \u2014 \u00a9ON.\u00a9 \u00a9 m O O ON 'ON ON \u00a9X in m rf rf rf rf CM \u2014 IM \u2014 O ON |\u00a9 K . \u00a9 : IA rf K l O O f - l \u2014 \u2014 O I O O O O O O \u00a9 \u00a9 K k k N . | K > . < > w K . k k k LA ON \u2014 rf rf in o \u00a9 ON o o \u2014 \u00a9 O rf I M \u00a9 \u00a9 in K I ON rf CO in \u2014 CO O \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 Oj K k CM LA \u00a9 IMJ *-\u00ab rf rf rf \u2014 IM \u00a9 \u00a9 \u2014 CV O O K l \u00a9I CM K l k rf \u00a9 CM \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 rf rf rf-; rf K I rf in k K l k \u00ab ON \u00a9 in in rf: K l O K v k i n l\/V K l K l OX; K l m-4 rfi \u00a9 \u00a9 o o o; o o o \u00a9 k \u00a9: o m o CM rf \u00a9 \u2022 \u00a9 \u00a9 k \u2014\u2022 k OK o in CM CC K l . \u2014 K l \u00a9 \u00a9 k k - k \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 K l OX ' \u00a9 OX IM \u00a9 K l rf - \u00a9 CM \u2014 irf CM \u00a9 ' ON \u2014 OX| ON K l ' \u2014 w\u00ab k |OX \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 k \u00a9 \u00a9 O CM \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9I rf O O IM CM in k O k : \u00a9 k rfj in o \u00a9< rf K I in \u00a9 O \u00a9 I M \u00a9 \u00a9 j \u00a9 O \u00a9 ! \u00a9 O O \u2014 O ' O O O KI in in o rf \u00a9 OX rf O X i K l fM \u00a9 | k K l \u2014 ' C O CM CM in ON \u2014 K l Kl j \u2014 \u00a9 ON \u00a9 \u2014 \u2014 j rf rf K l . K l rf rf J CO \u00a9 O O k ^ K k rf \u00a9 \u2022 \u00a9 \u00a9 k \u00a9 \u2014 O rf \u00a9 in ox CM o o \u00a9 o rf rf \u2022 \u2022 o o so ^4 ox ! ON i n K I o tn \u00a9 k K I o CM \u00a9 rf \u00a9 KN OX ON CD k \u00a9 IM \u2014 in LA in in in in K l K l K N ' K l K l K l o in i rf rf O CM rf CM \u00a9 K l \u00a9 OX IM in \u00a9 LA K l CM k \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 LA IA CM \u2014 CM \u2014 O OX O O \u2014 \u2014 \u2014 O k k \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 O N \u2014 O ON O \u2014 CM LP \u00a9 o LA OX K l \u00a9 k K rf \u00a9 \u00a9 \u2014 \u00a9 k \u00a9 K l \u00a9 \u00a9 Klj \u00a9 \u00a9 ox: O ON \u00a9a o o o ; \u2014 e \u00a9 tn rf O i K rf \u2014 \u00a9 CM k OX O- ON o: \u00a9 i n \u00a9 IM- O CM K l | \u00a9 ; \u00a9 ON \u2014 i r f CM \u00a9 rfrf rf i \u00a9 rf O k Kl rf CM K l \u00a9 in in CO ft k . in l\\J c\\j;in ft <X> mm K V K l vO CO ao ft -\u00bb ft CM K l in CO-Kl o: k . VO I\\J K>. O ft o O O \u00a9 : \u00a9 \u00a9 O ! \u2014 \u00ab O'CM K IM \u00a9 k K l J k \u00a9 \u2014 IM k \u00a9 < \u00a9 ON k ON k \u00a9'in \u00a9 in rfrf rf:rf K l IKl K l K l J K l K ) K l CM \u2014 in \u00a9 \u00a9 \u2014 o \u2014 in \u2022'\u00a9 CM rf \u2014 ox ;\u00a9 k in iin in rf rf K I K I co k \u00a9 in rf K I o o o o o o t<0 %0 iO \u00a9 u0 CM K l \u2014 iM \u2014 k O IM o o \u00a9 \u00a9 ON rf CM K k ON k \u00a9 K ON 0s' ON O O O O CM \u2014 \u2014 \u00a9 CM in vo \u2014 o \u2014 \u2014 i i n LA LA LA rf O O O O \u2022 * l rf K l ; i M \u2014 \u00a9 O K rf \u00a9 \u2014 K wm ON ON \u00a9 K l tM CM iM K l K l K l O \u00a9 Ox rf \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 in o \u00a9 K .\u00a9 \u00a9 k \u00a9 ' M l Ml IM CM IM ICM \u2014 CM \u2014 O O \u2014 \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 LA in o co i n o \u00a9 : c o co or 0 : W T -W Pw \u00a9JPO PO O \u00a9 \u2022 c o o\u00ab m \u00a9 I C C CC ON O Pw US;\u00a9 k wi l> ^ \\ C O -J \u00a9 O K. US \u00a9 ^  \u00a9 or t v \u00a9 m in Pw CO t v \u00a9 or US \u00a9 ON ON \u00a9 \u00a9 CC \u00a9 \u00a9 i n j K - U S \u00a9 \u00a9 ON in . ON CD \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 ; k ro \u00a9 \u00a9 PO \u00a9>PO po \u00a9 \u00a9 ON }wr us \u00a9 \u00a9 ON \u00a9 f \u00a9 ON O 240 ON po m \u00a9 t v iw K; ON ON CO INJ K-*w \u00a9 \u00a9 --mm wr wr \u00a9 i n *o ior K . - - ON W :V3 Of \u00a9 O^ CO O * ^O* O^ ON us PJ rw ipo us ON! (or p j wr -ro \u00a9 \u00ab-*i PJ i i n wr PO| or \u00a9 i(vj \u00a9 r o \u00a9 \u00abM m im ro ON |lV \u00a9 \u00abw ;PU US or \u00a9 ON m PJ Pw ON ON ON >ON \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 ON ON (ON ON ON \u00a9 r o . * iwr O \u00bb \u00a9 I\\J us ius k\u00bb ON \u00a9 i n cn )PJ rw \u00a9 \u00a9 us w r w r co \u00a9 \u00a9 k l * o ON K> o \u00ab-\u00ab iv wr wr *w \u00a9 ON cc \u00a9 \u00a9 us \u00a9 wr k j c v co ro \u00a9 ON ON ] ON \u00a9 o \u00a9 p j ' \u00a9 wr \u00a9 \u00a9 mm ;\u00a9 o \u00a9 o w \u2022 \u00a9 vw wr \u00a9 us r o i \u00a9 in N . \u00a9 \u00a9 ro I \u00a9 ON \u00a9 ON ON ! \u00a9 O \u00a9 ON ro K V \u00a9 ON m USiCTv ro ro US'\u00a9 us co CD us rw \u00a9 us i ro ON ON ON iO* \u2022 H I \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 T \u00ab M \u00a9 \u00a9 V * \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 *M \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 j\u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 ! \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 w \u00a9 \u00a9 t \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 ; \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 wm \u00a9\u00a9!\u2022-\u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 i w r co r o PJ r o \u00a9 ;in or ro ON ON i\\j im o r o\\ k- ON p j ^ n u s r o o u s f w i o o N U S lus in in iw. us PW, \u00a9 \u00a9 in !\u00a9 rO ON m k k !CV \u00a9 i i n us \u00a9 \u00a9 O N U S rw oNirw \u00a9 o m\u2014 <JS k ON wr j ro r o r o D\u00ab H rtip-W O\" \u00a9ON ro o iNj rw \u00a9 i n ON rw us r o i n us t n ' \u00a9 PJ r o ro r o r o ;ro r o r o i | tn r o ON i \u00a9 mm us \u00a9 \u00a9 in \u00a9 \u00a9 lus rw \u00a9 ;w \u00a9 wr \u00a9 in in i ro K . ON ro r o i ro ro r o rw, o in ON rw in mm r o r o ON t - i o. \u00a9 ON \u00a9 \u2014 \u00a9 \u00a9 us or or us m ro FO \u00a9 PJ IUS \u00ab-4 <-4 |ud us or ION r o t v ON mm US i \u00a9 US or \u2022 o \u00bbo p j * v \u00a9 ON \u00bbo r o r o r o r o t \\ j i\u00bb0 \u00a9 ON \u2022\u00ab\u2022* IV US r o po 10 rw rw ^ m rw wr wr wr p j 9-1 o Po ro r o -ro r o \u00bb\u00abo \u00a9 i n in i co s. in or \u00a9 wr |wr in \u00a9 llV \u00a9 mm !i\\j rw r o iro PJ \u00a9 us rw ON ION PJ in ! \u00a9 rw - * iin or PJ PJ PJ ON \u2022or rw or , in rv o r ; o us' in or r o in r o r o \u00a9 ON or in \u00a9 cc tv in rw co us in K- : \u00a9 rw rw \u00a9 :rw K* \u00a9 ro \u00a9 us r o ON *w ON tvj rw ' \u00a9 m wr or NO \u2014\u00ab i |ON m - o us or i n i \u00a9 \u00a9 wr or us \u00a9 I PJ ON us \u00a9 i n us i n \u00a9 oo r o m \u00a9 m wr k- m tvj r o wr r o t v or p or or ~ * \u00a9 i v [us us rw i \u00a9 PJ \u00a9 j r \u00abw ius \u2022** m ko or wr i n \u00a9 ON IV ON CO PO k Pw r o PO PO r o in us I ON 9w I U S cv or Pw i ( V \u00a9 i ON r o \u00bb mm O J i n or PO ON Pw Pw US Pw PO CO PO \u00a9 O CO \u00a9 ON PW ON PJ PJ IV \u20144 i v i n :tn \u00bb-\u00ab \u00a9 w H co \u00a9 wr i n us us ON ! \u00a9 i n i n \u00a9 Pw Pw !ON ON i n t v PO t v PJ PJ Pw \u00a9 LV PJ US \u00a9 vs wr ro \u00a9 co \u00a9 \u00a9 Pw US IV CV IV PJ or \u2014* PJ in PJ ON PJ \u00a9 \u00bbw US ON O N H ON wr in l\u00a9 ON \u00a9 i or \u00a9 eo r o wr iv \u00a9 r o f ON PO i US PO ; t v ro \u20144 ON or PJ ON f o in us iro r v \u00a9 cv ItV mm ON ON w us us \u00a9 \u00a9 r o PW \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 ! \u00a9 O \u00a9 p \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 e \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 o \u00a9 o \u00a9 o \u00a9 \u00a9 o o ON 'wr rw o Pw o i n us \u00a9 PO ice ONinvsusoN I H K M O PO PW CD \u00a9N ON Pw US mm |\u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 O \u00a9 o o o o o \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 o \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 Pw PO Pw PO m o IV US CO US mwt mm p us pw in k ON \u00a9 . \u00ab in wr us o PO \u2014I CV Pw PO r o \u2014\u2022* \u00a9 Pw W IM fvl H IIV US \u2014< \u00a9 us PO |us \u00a9 ON \u00a9 *\"* ON ON US ON CC Pw US \u00a9 \u00a9 ON ON ON ON PO PO l v cv cv cv i n us cv us \u00a9 \u2014 ^ ^ pw wr i n t n ro i v Po wr O O O O O irv r o ro PO PO po k k- iv PO in eo po wr \u00a9 wr f v [cv ON PO CO PO mm I\u00a9 ON ON eO \u00a9 \u00a9 PJ t v CV IV PJ ON i n m ON PO PO o PO or i v PO wr fv o i n or co P O CO Iw Pw Pw us t v PJ cv i v cv t v kn ON k, PV ON *m |CV mm pj mt WT Pw Pw m cv co wr pu [a us us i n i n i n jtv cv cv t v i v p j in \u00a9 \u00a9 cv pw pw kv Pw \u00a9 us us us p \u00bb in ro *w ON _ . * wr or \u2022 \u00bb PO kv cv cv r v PJ IV (wr ON cv us N - \u2022 \u00bb * ON ro m o wr (US i n *\u2022\u00ab \u00a9 ON PW PO PO PO cv r o CV IV CV CV P J p j \u00a9 ON po wr jtn \u00a9 PO mM jor ro |IV CV IVi fNI (IV p j I V PO us ON \u00ab * u > l k , * w m m r w \u00a9 f c D ON m ~ * \u00a9 PO U) H CO t H us in ON ON in p wr Pw us i ko or wr \u00ab r o ON I\u00a9 o in \u00a9 p o * w k v p o \u00ab - 4 w r \u00a9 rw us o r \u00a9 wr or ON ON us in o mm m-i mm v* wr or or p o o N i v \u2014 * o \\ P O i n i v p o P w P w u s -or cr- or \u00a9 ON \u00a9 P O I V P O \u00a9 P ^ C O ^\u00abus O N P w i n i n u s u s p o t v c v o r O O N CO \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 E C ON ON O - O O wr ro PO PO PO -k o o # o cv p ON o or u? Pw rv ON iv in ON us (ON QB \u00a9 Pw US US r o PO PO ro PO PO \u00a9 PJ *H \u00a9 O Pw iff *m p j i n rw \u00ab \u00a9 us PJ \u00a9 us m m m or po PO PO r o PO ro fmt r v mm us PO m PJ ro po t v Pw fx. or \u00a9 t n \u00a9 Pw or wr ^ r o PO p j PO PO ro po PO PO to ro t n ON PW i n lor PO i n i n ON IV [or PJ Pw i n PJ \u00a9 IM PJ mm mm mm \\mm i n mm t n us US PW Pw ON \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 ko wr ON \u00a9 us wr | \u00a9 \u00a9 ON ON ON O r o PJ PJ PO PJ L\u00bb \u00a9 PO pm I\u00a9 PJ \u00a9 Pw U- \u00a9 rw \u00a9 ON \u00a9 \u00a9 IIV cv t v cv \u00a9 ON CO Pw \u2022 W O O \u00a9 in m in m k k k k v s m w r r o p j ^ - i r v \u00ab ^ o o N \u00a9 k b o o o o o H H ^ o o o m m i n m i n i n k r o r w r w r o r wr p in or PO tv 9* \u00a9 o o o o o or or wr or or k- k Pw k Pw * v \u00ab - \u00ab \u00a9 O N \u00a9 k u s m u r r o i v \u00ab o r o ^ ^ o o o t o o o o o \u00a9 p o p o r o p o p o p o p o r o p o p o r o lV \u00a9 ON CD Pw 'mm mm mm \u00a9 \u00a9 \u00a9 tv PJ PJ IV PJ IV -k.rwk.Pw komorro IV*HLVVW\u00a9O p o o \u00a9 O O H H - o rv IV CV CV IM N px H H P \u00ab k k k k k k k k k k I ( MIE Sill RIU PROW AIU 111 7 1 0 8 2 3 7 0 5 . 8 22 1 4 8 . 2 0 . 0 2 3 0 7 7 2 8 5 5 4 - 5 0 . 9 9 4 7 2 8 7 1 0 7 2 8 5 7 0 . 6 2 2 0 4 3 . 2 0 . 4 2 3 7 2 9 2 5 8 0 4 . 8 0 . 9 0 3 1 9 2 7 1 0 6 2 3 2 7 3 . 9 2 1 8 1 1 . 2 0 . 0 8 0 3 0 6 2 7 7 5 4 . 9 0 . 9 8 1 6 4 4 7 1 0 5 2 7 8 3 4 . 2 2 1 4 1 1 . 2 0 . 2 5 0 3 9 6 2 6 2 2 2 . 7 0 . 9 4 2 1 0 4 7 1 0 * 2 7 4 2 7 . 6 2 1 0 8 6 . 8 0 . 3 0 0 4 2 9 2 5 5 2 2 . 6 0 . 9 3 0 5 4 6 7 1 0 3 2 7 4 1 0 - 0 2 1 0 8 0 . 5 0 . 0 5 0 6 3 3 2 7 0 8 9 . 5 0 . 9 8 8 3 0 8 7 1 0 2 2 7 3 1 6 . 0 2 1 0 0 8 . 0 0 . 2 7 3 1 6 . 0 1 . 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 1 0 1 2 7 0 2 5 . 7 2 0 7 7 4 . 9 0 . 2 5 5 8 1 4 2 5 4 2 6 . 7 0 . 9 4 0 8 3 3 7 0 1 2 2 6 8 8 7 . 9 2 0 6 6 7 . 4 0 . 0 3 1 4 4 7 2 6 6 9 2 . 3 0 . 9 9 2 7 2 5 7 0 1 1 2 6 8 5 1 . 1 2 0 6 4 4 . 8 0 . 1 2 0 4 4 8 2 6 1 0 3 . 5 0 . 9 7 2 1 6 0 7 0 1 0 2 6 4 4 2 . 6 2 0 4 2 3 . 7 0 . 4 6 9 5 0 1 2 3 6 1 6 . 7 0 . 8 9 3 1 3 1 7 0 0 9 2 6 0 7 1 . 6 2 0 1 2 8 . 2 0 . 1 7 6 2 9 6 2 5 0 2 3 . 8 0 . 9 5 9 8 1 1 7 0 0 8 2 5 9 8 6 - 1 2 0 0 6 6 . 4 0 . 1 7 4 8 7 3 2 4 9 5 0 . 9 0 . 9 6 0 1 6 4 7 0 0 7 2 5 8 8 1 . 6 1 9 9 8 9 . 4 6 . 2 0 1 2 5 2 \" \" \" 2 4 6 8 4\". 6 6 . 9 5 3 7 2 8 7 0 0 6 2 5 8 4 5 . 9 1 9 9 6 7 . 8 0 . 1 5 0 7 9 4 2 4 9 5 9 . 5 0 . 9 6 5 7 0 5 7 0 0 5 2 5 7 8 1 . 4 1 9 9 1 2 . 4 0 . 2 5 7 6 1 . 4 1 . 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 4 2 5 2 8 0 . 0 1 9 5 3 2 . 2 0 . 0 1 3 4 5 3 2 5 2 0 2 . 7 0 . 9 9 6 9 4 1 7 0 0 3 2 5 1 0 1 . 8 19 3 9 4 . 7 0 . 2 5 1 0 1 . 8 1 . 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0 0 2 2 4 7 6 9 . 8 1 9 1 3 7 . 0 0 . 2 4 7 6 9 - 8 1 . 0 0 00 00 7 0 0 1 2 4 6 6 7 . 6 1 9 0 6 7 . 2 0 . 0 3 3 0 1 9 2 4 4 8 2 . 7 0 . 9 9 2 5 0 4 6 9 1 2 2 4 6 0 9 . 9 1 9 0 3 3 . 6 0 . 1 4 4 9 2 8 2 3 8 0 1 . 7 0 . 9 6 7 1 6 2 J> 6 9 1 1 2 4 1 9 5 . 3 1 8 7 0 9 . 3 0 . 0 3 0 0 3 0 2 4 0 3 0 . 6 0 . 9 9 3 1 91 H 6 9 1 0 \u00a3 4 0 4 0 . 2 1 8 5 9 4 . 0 0 . 2 2 2 9 7 3 2 2 8 2 5 . 9 0 . 9 4 9 4 8 7 6 9 0 9 2 3 9 9 9 . 2 1 8 5 7 4 . 9 0 . 2 3 9 9 9 - 2 1 . 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 9 0 8 2 3 9 9 8 . 3 1 3 5 8 8 . 8 0 . 2 9 3 4 7 8 2 2 4 1 0 . 8 0 . 9 3 3 8 4 6 6 9 0 7 2 4 0 0 5 . 9 1 8 6 0 6 . 6 0 . 3 9 2 8 5 7 2 1 8 8 4 . 8 0 . 9 1 1 6 4 0 6 9 0 6 2 3 9 2 5 . 8 1 8 5 5 7 . 4 0 . 2 2 5 4 2 0 2 2 7 1 5 . 7 0 . 9 4 9 4 2 1 6 9 0 5 2 3 9 4 0 . 4 1 8 5 8 5 . 7 0 . 0 33 89 8 2 3 7 5 8 . 9 0 . 9 9 2 4 1 8 6 9 0 4 2 3 7 6 2 . 8 1 8 4 5 1 . 4 0 . 1 0 3 9 2 5 2 3 2 1 0 . 8 0 . 9 7 6 7 7 1 6 9 0 3 2 3 5 9 2 - I 1 8 3 2 5 . 8 9 . 1 0 6 2 9 9 2 3 0 3 2 . 3 0 . 9 7 6 2 7 1 6 9 0 2 2 3 2 7 3 . 6 1 8 0 7 7 . 5 0 . 2 3 2 7 3 . 6 1 . 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 9 0 1 2 2 9 8 0 . 6 1 7 8 1 7 . 1 0 . 1 4 8 0 1 4 2 2 2 i 6 . 4 6 . 9 6 6 7 4 2 6 8 1 2 2 2 7 1 6 . $ 1 7 6 1 3 . 6 0 . 0 9 2 8 7 3 2 2 2 4 2 . 4 0 . 9 7 9 1 3 9 6 8 1 1 2 2 6 1 9 . 3 1 7 5 4 5 . 6 0 . 1 0 2 2 4 4 2 2 1 0 0 . 6 0 . 9 7 7 0 6 5 6 8 1 0 2 2 5 1 9 . 6 1 7 4 7 5 . 4 0 . 0 5 5 1 5 6 2 2 2 4 1 . 4 0 . 9 8 7 6 4 5 6 8 0 9 2 2 4 4 6 . 2 1 7 4 2 9 . 0 0 . 3 8 1 2 0 6 2 0 5 3 3 . 6 0 . 9 1 4 7 9 3 6 8 0 8 2 2 3 6 1 . 6 17 3 7 0 . 1 0 . 3 6 4 9 4 3 2 0 5 4 0 . 0 .. 0 . 9 1 8 5 3 9 6 8 0 7 2 2 2 3 U 7 1 7 3 1 6 - 7 0 . 0 4 5 0 7 0 2 2 0 5 7 - 9 0 . 9 8 9 9 5 5 6 8 0 6 2 2 2 1 7 . 9 1 7 2 7 7 . 3 0 . 0 5 3 8 7 2 2 1 9 5 1 . 7 0 . 9 8 8 0 2 0 6 8 0 5 2 2 1 4 5 . 1 1 7 2 2 5 . 9 0 . 1 4 0 2 2 1 2 1 4 5 5 . 4 0 . 9 6 8 8 5 ? 6 8 0 4 2 1 8 7 6 . 7 1 7 0 1 7 . 9 0 . 1 4 8 4 8 5 2 1 1 5 5 . 2 0 . 9 6 7 0 2 2 6 8 0 3 2 1 6 0 2 . 8 1 5 8 0 2 . 7 0 . 1 5 9 4 6 8 2 0 8 3 7 . 3 0 . 9 6 4 5 6 7 6 8 0 2 2 1 5 3 5 . 3 1 6 7 5 6 . 4 0 . 0 3 2 0 5 1 2 1 3 . 8 2 . 1 0 . 9 9 2 8 8 8 6 8 0 1 2 1 4 4 9 . 4 1 6 6 9 8 . 4 0 . 3 2 5 0 0 0 1 9 9 0 5 . 3 0 . 9 2 8 0 1 3 6 7 1 2 2 1 1 9 7 . 2 1 6 5 0 4 . 3 0 . 0 6 1 2 2 5 2 0 9 0 9 . 9 0 . 9 8 6 4 4 5 . . \u2014 - - - - - - \u2022 \u2022 ","attrs":{"lang":"en","ns":"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2009\/08\/skos-reference\/skos.html#note","classmap":"oc:AnnotationContainer"},"iri":"http:\/\/www.w3.org\/2009\/08\/skos-reference\/skos.html#note","explain":"Simple Knowledge Organisation System; Notes are used to provide information relating to SKOS concepts. There is no restriction on the nature of this information, e.g., it could be plain text, hypertext, or an image; it could be a definition, information about the scope of a concept, editorial information, or any other type of information."}],"Genre":[{"label":"Genre","value":"Thesis\/Dissertation","attrs":{"lang":"en","ns":"http:\/\/www.europeana.eu\/schemas\/edm\/hasType","classmap":"dpla:SourceResource","property":"edm:hasType"},"iri":"http:\/\/www.europeana.eu\/schemas\/edm\/hasType","explain":"A Europeana Data Model Property; This property relates a resource with the concepts it belongs to in a suitable type system such as MIME or any thesaurus that captures categories of objects in a given field. It does NOT capture aboutness"}],"IsShownAt":[{"label":"DOI","value":"10.14288\/1.0095265","attrs":{"lang":"en","ns":"http:\/\/www.europeana.eu\/schemas\/edm\/isShownAt","classmap":"edm:WebResource","property":"edm:isShownAt"},"iri":"http:\/\/www.europeana.eu\/schemas\/edm\/isShownAt","explain":"A Europeana Data Model Property; An unambiguous URL reference to the digital object on the provider\u2019s website in its full information context."}],"Language":[{"label":"Language","value":"eng","attrs":{"lang":"en","ns":"http:\/\/purl.org\/dc\/terms\/language","classmap":"dpla:SourceResource","property":"dcterms:language"},"iri":"http:\/\/purl.org\/dc\/terms\/language","explain":"A Dublin Core Terms Property; A language of the resource.; Recommended best practice is to use a controlled vocabulary such as RFC 4646 [RFC4646]."}],"Program":[{"label":"Program (Theses)","value":"Business Administration","attrs":{"lang":"en","ns":"https:\/\/open.library.ubc.ca\/terms#degreeDiscipline","classmap":"oc:ThesisDescription","property":"oc:degreeDiscipline"},"iri":"https:\/\/open.library.ubc.ca\/terms#degreeDiscipline","explain":"UBC Open Collections Metadata Components; Local Field; Indicates the program for which the degree was granted."}],"Provider":[{"label":"Provider","value":"Vancouver : University of British Columbia Library","attrs":{"lang":"en","ns":"http:\/\/www.europeana.eu\/schemas\/edm\/provider","classmap":"ore:Aggregation","property":"edm:provider"},"iri":"http:\/\/www.europeana.eu\/schemas\/edm\/provider","explain":"A Europeana Data Model Property; The name or identifier of the organization who delivers data directly to an aggregation service (e.g. Europeana)"}],"Publisher":[{"label":"Publisher","value":"University of British Columbia","attrs":{"lang":"en","ns":"http:\/\/purl.org\/dc\/terms\/publisher","classmap":"dpla:SourceResource","property":"dcterms:publisher"},"iri":"http:\/\/purl.org\/dc\/terms\/publisher","explain":"A Dublin Core Terms Property; An entity responsible for making the resource available.; Examples of a Publisher include a person, an organization, or a service."}],"Rights":[{"label":"Rights","value":"For non-commercial purposes only, such as research, private study and education. Additional conditions apply, see Terms of Use https:\/\/open.library.ubc.ca\/terms_of_use.","attrs":{"lang":"en","ns":"http:\/\/purl.org\/dc\/terms\/rights","classmap":"edm:WebResource","property":"dcterms:rights"},"iri":"http:\/\/purl.org\/dc\/terms\/rights","explain":"A Dublin Core Terms Property; Information about rights held in and over the resource.; Typically, rights information includes a statement about various property rights associated with the resource, including intellectual property rights."}],"ScholarlyLevel":[{"label":"Scholarly Level","value":"Graduate","attrs":{"lang":"en","ns":"https:\/\/open.library.ubc.ca\/terms#scholarLevel","classmap":"oc:PublicationDescription","property":"oc:scholarLevel"},"iri":"https:\/\/open.library.ubc.ca\/terms#scholarLevel","explain":"UBC Open Collections Metadata Components; Local Field; Identifies the scholarly level of the author(s)\/creator(s)."}],"Title":[{"label":"Title ","value":"A housing market model for the metropolitan area of Ottawa-Hull","attrs":{"lang":"en","ns":"http:\/\/purl.org\/dc\/terms\/title","classmap":"dpla:SourceResource","property":"dcterms:title"},"iri":"http:\/\/purl.org\/dc\/terms\/title","explain":"A Dublin Core Terms Property; The name given to the resource."}],"Type":[{"label":"Type","value":"Text","attrs":{"lang":"en","ns":"http:\/\/purl.org\/dc\/terms\/type","classmap":"dpla:SourceResource","property":"dcterms:type"},"iri":"http:\/\/purl.org\/dc\/terms\/type","explain":"A Dublin Core Terms Property; The nature or genre of the resource.; Recommended best practice is to use a controlled vocabulary such as the DCMI Type Vocabulary [DCMITYPE]. To describe the file format, physical medium, or dimensions of the resource, use the Format element."}],"URI":[{"label":"URI","value":"http:\/\/hdl.handle.net\/2429\/22888","attrs":{"lang":"en","ns":"https:\/\/open.library.ubc.ca\/terms#identifierURI","classmap":"oc:PublicationDescription","property":"oc:identifierURI"},"iri":"https:\/\/open.library.ubc.ca\/terms#identifierURI","explain":"UBC Open Collections Metadata Components; Local Field; Indicates the handle for item record."}],"SortDate":[{"label":"Sort Date","value":"1982-12-31 AD","attrs":{"lang":"en","ns":"http:\/\/purl.org\/dc\/terms\/date","classmap":"oc:InternalResource","property":"dcterms:date"},"iri":"http:\/\/purl.org\/dc\/terms\/date","explain":"A Dublin Core Elements Property; A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource.; Date may be used to express temporal information at any level of granularity. Recommended best practice is to use an encoding scheme, such as the W3CDTF profile of ISO 8601 [W3CDTF].; A point or period of time associated with an event in the lifecycle of the resource.; Date may be used to express temporal information at any level of granularity. Recommended best practice is to use an encoding scheme, such as the W3CDTF profile of ISO 8601 [W3CDTF]."}]}