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UBC Theses and Dissertations

The Middle East, semi-democracy and monarchy: a comparative analysis of Algeria, Jordan, and Morocco Bestland, Tanis

Abstract

Democratization in the Middle East has been fraught with pitfalls - the Islamist challenge, rentierism, and the weaknesses of democratic political culture, independent civil society and multipartisrn; yet democratization has become attractive (if not indeed necessary) to many regimes in the last decade or so, facing as they are legitimacy crises due to economic difficulties. This thesis explores the Middle Eastern experience with democratization through the analysis of three relevant case studies: Algeria, Jordan and Morocco. None of these countries is at present fully democratic, but all have experienced periods of semi-democratic rule - Jordan being the most successful to date, Algeria the least. The potential for transition from non-democracy to semi-democracy (and eventually democracy) and the factors which contribute to successful transition and consolidation of such new systems are the issues analyzed here. The theoretical literature on democratization is reviewed, with particular attention to cultural and economic factors, historical legacies, democratic transition and consolidation, elite behavior, the role of Islam, and political legitimacy. Comparative variations in levels of development tend not to be the best explanation for the relative success of the three case studies examined here. Instead, the factors determined to be most conducive to a stable, successful transition are a medium- to long-term time frame for the process, the presence of a pact between the government and the opposition (elite consensual unity), and the presence of a stable, legitimate institution to guide the process. Democratization in the Middle East also requires a decision by the regime on how to deal with Islamist groups/parties, and this decision always has important repercussions for the success of the process. In the cases of Jordan and Morocco legitimate authority has been found in the person of the king. Thus this thesis points out that the presence of a monarch in a democratizing society is likely to be a stabilizing force in the transition and, later, the consolidation of the democratic system. Scholars would thus be wise to explore further the potentialities of monarchy in democratization, as well as other ways that new democratic regimes might gain and maintain legitimacy.

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